Introducing PiRate Basketball Ratings

Today, the PiRate Ratings foray back into the college basketball game. Every year, usually starting after the Super Bowl, we begin to devote full time to March Madness using unique formulae to determine which teams will advance in the NCAA Tournament and which teams are pretenders.

For many years, our method was very accurate. We discovered sleepers like George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth, and Butler, when these teams made their famous runs deep into the dance. We isolated teams like Georgetown and Vanderbilt as highly vulnerable of becoming upset victims more than one time, and more than one time the Hoyas and Commodores lost to double-digit seeds in the Round of 64.

This method chose eight NCAA Champions in a period of 11 years, but in the last three years, the game seems to have changed just enough so that the formula stopped being as effective. We knew we had to come up with a different formula, and for several months, we tested certain statistical data trying to figure out how to adjust our numbers.

In the end, we chose to totally scrap the old formula and start from scratch. A few years ago, our founder, a mathematical nerd for sure, read an interesting book, at least interesting for him. This book, Basketball on Paper, written by Dean Oliver introduced him to “The Four Factors” that determine what determines the outcome of basketball games.

Oliver used the same statistical parts that any basketball fan would use, but the “All-Star Mathlete” put clout behind the obvious statistics by determining how important each statistical part is. Here is what he determined:

1. Field Goal Accuracy and Defense of the same: 40%
2. Rebounding: 20%
3. Prevention of Turnovers and Ability to Force Turnovers: 25%
4. Free Throws—both getting to the line and making them: 15%

These four factors were tested by Oliver in the NBA over the course of multiple seasons, but it was shown subsequently to be accurate for college basketball as well with a minor adjustment.

Last season, we began trying to take these Four Factors and create an algorithm that “spit out” a pointspread for college games. Obviously, there are two more factors that must be included in college basketball predictions—strength of schedule and home court advantage (also visiting team disadvantage, since some teams play worse on the road than others, while a Kentucky might actually go on the road and receive points if 5,000 Blue Misters get into the gym.)

We are big fans of backtesting. It has shown positive results in stock picking, and it has shown positive results in picking football teams against the spread. You can test as many formulae as you can and find certain tendencies that lead you to higher accuracy.

After months of backtesting over the summer, we began to find three formulae that started to come close to actual pointspreads in past NCAA Tournaments. While we are not going to announce that we have cracked the code and have found a surefire method to become wealthy, we have found what we believe is our least amount of errors when using the Four Factors.

If you know a little about statistics, you must be familiar with means and standard deviations. A mean is simply the average. If you have the numbers 2, 3, 4, 7, and 9, the mean or average of these numbers is 5. The standard deviation is a little more involved, but it basically determines the degree of variation the numbers are from the mean. In the above sample, the standard deviation is 2.9, or on average, the numbers in the sample are 2.9 away from the norm.

When the standard deviation of something is high, then the mean is not all that important in something like picking sides against a basketball pointspread. The lower the standard deviation goes, the more accurate the formula will be. For weeks, we sought a formula that produces the lowest possible standard deviation.

In the end, we found three separate formulae that at certain points in time in the NCAA past were each the lowest standard deviation formula. Thus, we will go with three ratings this year as an experiment to determine winners in college basketball games.

Because there are five of us working full-time jobs doing something else, and because figuring the Four Factors for every NCAA team is something that must be done by typing in an entirely new set of statistics after every game, we cannot possibly pick every college basketball game. Additionally, until every college team has played about 10-12 games, these formulae standard deviations are wildly too high.

Thus, beginning in January, we will start to issue our ratings and picks for select Atlantic Coast Conference, Big Ten Conference, Big 12 Conference, Pac-12 Conference, and Southeastern Conference games, as well as other top games including teams like Gonzaga and Wichita State.

Once the season ends, we will select all the March Madness games. Remember, this is strictly an experimental exercise this year as we put these formulae into use in real time.

Here in a nutshell are the Four Factors plus our added strength of schedule and home court advantage. Each set of data is used both in an offensive and defensive subset.

1. Effective Field Goal Percentage
EFG% adds three-point shooting to the equation of accuracy. If you make one three-point shot in three attempts, you have made one point per shot attempt. If you make one layup and miss one short jumper, you have also made one point per shot attempt.

Formula: [Field Goals Made+ (0.5*Three Point Shots Made)]/Field Goals Attempted

Examples
Kentucky through 8 games: FG% 222-477 3Pt FG: 41
[222+(.5*41)]/477 = .508 or 50.8%

Kentucky Defensively: FG% 116-412 3Pt FG: 36
[116+(.5*36)]/412 = .325 or 32.5%
North Carolina through 7 games: FG% 188-444 3Pt FG: 34
[188+(.5*34)]/444 = .462 or 46.2%

North Carolina Defensively: FG% 142-423 3Pt FG: 41
[142+(.5*41)]/423 = .384 or 38.4%

Kentucky has a big advantage here on the surface before you look at who the two teams played and where these games were played.

2. Rebounding Rate
Getting offensive rebounds has always been a major factor in basketball success. Offensive rebounds tend to produce higher percentage shots, like tip-ins. Preventing the opponent from getting offensive rebounds is obviously equally important. This formula calculates the rate at which a team gets an offensive rebound or prevents the opponent from getting an offensive rebound.

Formula: Offensive Rebounds/(Offensive Rebounds + Opponents’ Defensive Rebounds)

Examples
Kentucky: Offensive Rebounds: 125 Opponents’ Defensive Rebounds: 148
125/(125+148) = .458 or 45.8%

Kentucky Defensively: Opponents’ Offensive Rebounds: 100 Kentucky’s Defensive Rebounds: 214
100/(100+214) = .318 or 31.8%

North Carolina: Offensive Rebounds: 120 Opponents’ Defensive Rebounds: 163
120/(120+163) = .424 or 42.4%

North Carolina Defensively: Opponents’ Offensive Rebounds: 115 North Carolina Defensive Rebounds: 190
115/(115+190) = .377 or 37.7%

Once again, Kentucky has an advantage here all things being equal.

3. Turnover Rate
Turnover rate or turnover percentage is simply the amount of turnovers created per 100 possessions, or defensively, it is the number of turnovers forced per 100 possessions. Obviously, this adds another factor that must be calculated—possessions. There are a couple of sites online that list the average number of possessions per game for each college team, but you can approximate this number rather accurately.

Calculating possessions for each team: FGA+(.475*FTA)-OR+TO
A possession ends with: a field goal attempt that is made or missed and rebounded by the opponent; a free throw that is made or missed and rebounded by the opponent, or a turnover. Because some free throws are the front end of a two-shot foul, not all free throws are counted, thus we use the constant of .475 to multiply (thanks to Mr. Ken Pomeroy at http://www.kenpom.com for this bit of data).

Remember that possessions per game can be affected by overtime games, where the game is more than 40 minutes long. For TO rate, this does not matter, but it will when we put pace to the equation in our algorithm.

Formula: TO/100 Possessions

Examples
Kentucky Possessions per game: FGA 477, FTA 202, OR 125 TO 87 Overtime minutes: 0
477+(.475*202)-125+87=534.95 =535 in 8 games, this averages to 66.9 possessions per game
Calculating this formula defensively, UK’s opponents show 65.9 possessions per game, which can be attributed to UK winning the tip and finishing the game with the ball more than average.

Turnover Rate: 87/535*100=16.3%
Defensive Turnover Rate: 148/527*100=28.1%

North Carolina Possessions per game: FGA 444 FTA 193 OR 120 TO 90 Overtime minutes: 0
444+(.475*193)-120+90=505.7 =506 in 7 games, this averages to 72.3 possessions per game
UNC’s Opponents’ Possessions=498 or 71.1 possessions per game

Turnover Rate: 90/506*100=17.8%
Defensive Turnover Rate: 112/498*100=22.5%

Once again, Kentucky enjoys the advantage in these two examples.

4. Free Throw Rate
This calculation has multiple mathematical geniuses in a little bit of disagreement, as there are at least three different philosophies on how to calculate this stat. The stat measures both how frequent a team can get to the foul line and how accurate they shoot foul shots, but not all math wizards agree on the proper method.

Oliver, in his original book, set FT Rate at: Free Throws Attempted/Field Goals Attempted. He posited that attempting free throws was all that mattered and getting to the line satisfied this criteria, as it placed the opposing team in foul trouble as fouls added up.

A second school of thought supported the formula as: Free Throws Made/Field Goals Attempted, believing that a made free throw added the obvious point accumulation while still including the fact that a foul was committed by the opponent.

Yet a third school of thought developed later that believed that free throws made per possession was more accurate in determining how important free throws were to the game. In mathematical tests, this metric actually proved to be a tad more accurate, but also a tad more time-consuming.

Accuracy is what we are looking for, so we will use the third option of FT Made per possession and multiply it by 100 to get a rate.

Formula: FT Made/100 Possessions

Examples
Kentucky: FT Made 131 Possessions 535
131/535*100= 24.5%

Kentucky Opponents: FT Made 95 Possessions 527
95/527*100=18.0%

North Carolina: FT Made 133 Possessions 506
133/506*100=26.3%

North Carolina’s Opponents: FT Made 120 Possessions 498
120/498*100=24.1%

Kentucky enjoys a slight advantage in this statistic.

And The Rest
Our formula for determining Strength of Schedule as it applies to pointspreads and our formula for determining home court advantage (and visiting team disadvantage) has not changed. How we figure these two sets of data would take much too long to explain, especially the home/visitor advantages, since there are 16 different variables that are possible, and in the end 90% of games will be end up within a two-point swing.

Putting It All Together
Once we have the “Four Factors” calculated, and we have determined how many points to alter the final product based on schedule strength and where the game will be played, we are ready to construct a pointspread.

As previously mentioned, we ended up with three separate algorithms, each of which at some point in the 21st Century past proved to be more accurate than all others tested.

We will call these formulae: PiRate Red, PiRate White, and PiRate Blue, because there is no distinct numerical statistic that really dominates any of the trio. It is simply a rearranging of numbers, so we cannot call one rating a mean rating, another a bias rating, and the other the regular rating like we do in football.

Unlike football, where we must record the scores and stats of every game in order to calculate ratings for the entire season, this rating only requires that we have up to date cumulative statistics and whichever SOS rating we choose to use.

Using our example, since North Carolina visits Kentucky next Saturday, our three ratings show the Wildcats to be favored today by 12.7, 11.9, and 16.3 points in the three algorithms. Of course, both teams play other games prior to their meeting in Lexington, so these stats would be a little different by Saturday morning.

Since this is just an example, we will use this one for you to refer to. Hopefully, it will prove to be somewhat accurate, and the Wildcats will win by about 14 points.

Look for our select basketball predictions to begin in January. In February, we will renew our weekly look at March Madness projections. Last year, we correctly picked 67 of the 68 teams on Selection Sunday morning.

PiRate Picks For September 19-23, 2013

The PiRate Ratings Picks broke even last week, and they have not performed well at the beginning of the season.  We selected much more conservatively this week, hoping to get on the plus side.  This week, the number played more importance than the game itself, so we shall see if this method works a little better.  Trends are real in this genre, so maybe the successful trends of the last few years have now played out.

 

If you are playing for real, and thus are ignoring everything we say here (where we do not play for real), our best suggestion is to select your choices as soon as you can find a line.  Then, if the line moves enough, you can play the middle and take the other side.  That is the probably your best chance to win consistently, as it only needs to work one time in 19 for you to make a profit (not counting any pushes that leave you 1-0-1 on the selection.)

 

We chose nine selections this week, as we get a little leaner and meaner.

 

1. Minnesota -3 vs. San Jose St.

 

2. Green Bay -2 ½ vs. Cincinnati

 

3. Money Line Parlay @ -109

Florida over Tennessee

Michigan over Connecticut

Ball St. over Eastern Michigan

Toledo over Central Michigan

 

4. 10-point Teaser

Western Michigan +29 ½ vs. Iowa

Tennessee +27 vs. Florida

Rice +12 ½ vs. Houston

 

5. 13-point Teaser

Clemson -1 vs. North Carolina St.

Pittsburgh +9 vs. Duke

Michigan -5 vs. Connecticut

Ball St. +2 vs. Eastern Michigan

 

6. 13-point Teaser

Cincinnati -9 ½ vs. Miami (O)

Wyoming +9 ½ vs. Air Force

Maryland +7 ½ vs. West Virginia

Florida Atlantic +17 ½ vs. Middle Tennessee

 

7. 13-point Teaser

L S U -4 vs. Auburn

Missouri +10 ½ vs. Indiana

San Diego +16 vs. Tennessee

Baltimore +15 ½ vs. Houston

 

8. 13-point Teaser

St. Louis +17 vs. Dallas

New Orleans +5 ½ vs. Arizona

Detroit +15 ½ vs. Washington

Green Bay +10 ½ vs. Cincinnati

 

9. 13-point Teaser

NY Giants +14 ½ vs. Carolina

Atlanta +15 vs. Miami

Seattle -6 ½ vs. Jacksonville

Chicago +10 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

 

PiRate Ratings–NFL: September 19-23, 2013

The Continuing Demise Of The Running Game

When I was an adolescent in the 1960’s, the National Football League was a blood and guts proposition.  The successful teams of the decade ran the ball and ran it better than the weaker teams.  In the Eastern Division, Jim Brown led the Cleveland Browns to multiple division flags.  After Brown departed, LeRoy Kelly took over and continued the ground attack that won all three of the NFL’s Century Division titles.

Dallas became a juggernaut in the second half of the decades thanks to a running back corps that included Don Perkins, Dan Reeves, and Walt Garrison.  Even with Dandy Don Meredith at quarterback, passes were kept at a minimum.

In the Western Division, Green Bay was Titletown USA.  The Packers had Paul Hornung and Jim Taylor in the backfield.  Both could deliver the goods when the Packers ran their legendary power sweep.  The Green Bay playbook was full of other running plays that looked at the beginning like the sweep, hitting every hole in the line.  Bart Starr was an excellent quarterback, possibly the equal of Johnny Unitas, but he attempted around 20 passes per game, with a good percentage coming off play-action.

Even though they had what many experts believed to be the best quarterback in NFL history, the Baltimore Colts were a run-first team.  Unitas may have thrown for 6,000 yards playing a 16-game schedule under 2013 rules and philosophies.  The Colts won big when their running game worked, and were just a little above average when they had to pass the ball more than run it.

The teams that passed the ball more than 50% of the time were the ones looking up from the bottom of the standings.  They could not run, so they passed and passed often.  Interception numbers were through the roof as the good teams often picked off more than two per game.  The Bears actually picked off more than three per game in their championship year of 1963.

The so-called pass happy American Football League passed the ball about 40% of the time.  Running still came first.  Stars like Cookie Gilchrist, Paul Lowe, Keith Lincoln, Jim Nance, and Mike Garrett led their teams to the AFL Championship.

Flash forward to 2013.  There are a handful of top running backs that can pile up 100 yards per game, but these players are not wearing Super Bowl jewelry.  Adrian Peterson was unstoppable last year, and he is off to another really good season after two weeks.  His Vikings are 0-2.  Darren McFadden, LeSean McCoy, C. J. Spiller, Chris Johnson, and DeAngelo Williams make up a short list of the best backs in the league.  These five should all top 1,300 rushing yards and could top 1,500.  Their teams aren’t likely to make the playoffs much less advance to the Super Bowl.

Even Houston, with both Arian Foster and Ben Tate capable of topping 1,000 rushing yards this year, the principle offensive weapon is Matt Schaub’s passing arm.  Schaub will top 4,500 passing yards this year, if he stays healthy.  The run serves the Texans like the draw and screen once served all NFL teams.

The road to the Super Bowl travels through the arms of the quarterbacks.  Even with a plethora of dual-threat QBs, the Super Bowl champion has always been one with a prototypical dropback passer.  Sure, Roger Staubach, John Elway, and Terry Bradshaw could run the ball, but they scrambled and did not run the zone read or the option.

Until a team proves it can win any other way, look for a team that passes the ball first and foremost with a prototypical dropback passer to emerge as the Super Bowl Champion.  So, ask yourself, which old-fashioned gunslinger is most likely to announce to the world in early February that he is going to Disneyworld?  Think about Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Andy Dalton, and Matt Schaub among a handful of others.  Toss out the new breed of zone read quarterbacks.  This might be the way to win a college title, but we are not onboard with this philosophy.  Quarterbacks will take too much punishment getting banged on play after play by NFL defenders.

Which Brings Up This Idea

How better could a superstar back be utilized today?  Let’s take Chris Johnson, the back with 4.24 speed in the 40 yard dash.  The Titans give him the ball between the tackles about 60% of the time he runs the ball.  Not having much power, he frequently gains less than two yards on these line plunges.  When Vince Young quarterbacked the team, defenses had to assign defenders to stop the possible bootleg away from Johnson, and Johnson rushed for 2,000 yards.  The Titans finished 8-8.

What if Johnson were moved to a slotback and a power runner like Jackie Battle moved to starting running back?  The Titans would run the ball between the tackles with a little more success but with limited breakaway threat.  However, Johnson would force defenses to stretch vertically and open up the intermediate zones for the other receivers.  He would affect the opponent blitz packages, because any mistake in a cover 0 or cover 1 could be a six-point mistake.  Johnson is always a threat to run a stretch play for a 10-20 yard gain, but that play rarely means as much as getting free for a 50-yard pass reception.  He could be a smaller Calvin Johnson.

The Ray Guy Campaign

There is a push to elect Ray Guy to the Hall of Fame as the first enshrined punter.  Guy was a great player at that position.  College football’s top punter wins the Ray Guy Award, so you know he must have been fantastic.  The term “hang-time” became widely known because of Guy’s boots.

Great he was, but he was not the best punter.  The first punter elected to the Hall of Fame should be the best.  In my opinion, three other punters rank ahead of Guy (not counting any still playing or not yet eligible for enshrinement.

Jerrel Wilson was a superior punter for 15 years.  The former Chief led the league in punting average five times with hang-time equal to Guy’s.  He was better at placing the ball inside the 20 yard line, as he perfected the coffin corner kick.  Many of his punts landed inside the opponents’ 10-yard line, where the Chiefs’ vaunted defense forced a return punt.  With quality punt returners, the Chiefs often gained 20 or more yards in the exchange of punts.  Wilson was a little better than Guy, but he still was not the best.

Have you ever heard the name “Bobby Joe Green?”  He punted for the Steelers for a couple seasons and then became the Bears punter for a decade.  Green added something to the punting game that Guy and Wilson could not.  Not only did he punt for a nice fat average, leading the NFL in average six times, his punts were the hardest to field of any punter since.  Green’s punts were a work of art; they came down straight with a tight spiral.  Many times, the Bears benefitted from recovering fumbles in enemy territory as a result of one of Green’s skyrockets.  Additionally, there were punt returners too afraid to try to field his punts, and they let the ball bounce.  Even though the ball bounced the wrong way as often as it bounced in the Bears’ favor, the threat of a punt return was eliminated.

What makes Green’s accomplishments so much better than what they are on a piece of paper is that he played for the Bears when more than half of their games were in weather not advantageous for a punter.  The Bears played their games in Wrigley Field in those days, and the wind did the same thing to a football as it did to a baseball.  In a typical season, five of the seven home games were played in autumn winds.  Now, add an annual trip to Lambeau Field and another to Metropolitan Stadium (Minnesota), where conditions were almost always miserable after October 10.  Games in Cleveland Stadium, Forbes Field in Pittsburgh, and Yankee Stadium in New York were often no picnic for a kicking game.

Guy was a terrific punter, but Oakland seldom produced bad conditions for a kicker.  The Raiders always played in San Diego, which has perfect weather for about 99 games out of 100.  Kansas City was no picnic in the Municipal Stadium days (Where Wilson punted for a good bit of his career), but by the time Guy played for the Raiders, the Chiefs had moved into Arrowhead Stadium.  Denver could present awful weather conditions, but the ball flew through the air at the high altitude.

Statistics tell the story about Guy’s handful of games played in harsh weather, as the schedule makers in the 1970’s were very kind to Oakland, giving them most of their potential frigid weather road games in September.  It helped that the Oakland A’s forced the Raiders to begin many seasons with as many as five consecutive road games to start the season.

According to data from Pro Football Reference, in 1974, the Raiders played at Kansas City in December on a day where the temperature was 23 degrees with an 18 mph wind.  He averaged just 37.2 yards per punt on five attempts.  Wilson averaged 40 yards per punt for the Chiefs.

The Raiders played at Pittsburgh in the 1975 AFC Championship Game, where  it was 18 degrees that day with a wind of 18 miles per hour.  In eight attempts, Guy averaged just 37.9 yards per punt.  His counterpart that day, Bobby Walden, averaged 38.5.

Green is definitely the best punter eligible for the Hall of Fame, but in actuality, there already is a punter in Canton, and he was the very best of all time.  Of course, he is also in the HOF for playing another position.  That man is: Sammy Baugh.

Yes, the man considered to be an all-time great quarterback was also the all-time greatest punter.  Think of Baugh as the Babe Ruth of football.  Ruth might have earned a plaque in Cooperstown if he had remained a full-time pitcher.

As a punter, Baugh averaged more than 45 yards per punt for his career.  He holds the all-time best single season average at 51.4 yards per punt in 1940.

A Rare Event

At the time of this publication, the Seattle Seahawks are 20-point favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Without looking it up, I can remember very few games where a team was favored by 20 or more points.  In their first season in 1976, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, on their way to a 0-14 record, were underdogs in every game.  Against a couple of teams, they were 20-point ‘dogs.  They covered one of those games.  I could be wrong, but except for the other game in which they were trounced, I cannot remember another 20-point favorite covering in the last 37 years.  In the largest Super Bowl spread ever, the 1968 Baltimore Colts not only failed to cover against the New York Jets, they lost outright.

Seattle is nearly unbeatable at home, and the Jaguars have scored just 11 points in two weeks, but still 20 points is too much to expect for any NFL team to cover with confidence.  Consider that Seattle must play at Houston next week and at Indianapolis the following week.  Coach Pete Carroll cannot risk keeping his most important players in the game if it gets out of hand.  An injury to Russell Wilson or any of the key personnel with the ‘Hawks up by 24 points in the second half would be catastrophic.  If Seattle leads 28-0 at the half, they might be able to pull starters and still win by more than 20.  However, Jacksonville will not lay down.  Their offense is anemic, but their defense is okay.  NFL teams usually run in cycles where every third or fourth game is an aberration from the previous three or four games.  Seattle has enjoyed two top notch efforts; Jacksonville has suffered through two lousy efforts.  Chances are good that we will see Seattle go through a mediocre day, while Jacksonville plays its best game of the year.  We may not take the Jags as one of our official picks, but we definitely won’t take Seattle either.  We believe Jacksonville +33 is an excellent part of a 13-point teaser.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Dallas Cowboys	100.4	102.7	100.4
New York Giants	100.1	100.0	99.0
Washington Redskins	96.2	94.9	95.0
Philadelphia Eagles	96.1	97.2	96.1
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Green Bay Packers	107.0	106.2	106.6
Chicago Bears	101.5	102.1	101.1
Minnesota Vikings	99.3	97.9	98.4
Detroit Lions	98.9	101.3	99.0
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Atlanta Falcons	103.1	104.6	102.3
New Orleans Saints	102.3	103.8	102.6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	98.2	97.6	98.4
Carolina Panthers	98.1	96.9	97.9
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Seattle Seahawks	108.6	108.8	109.1
San Francisco 49ers	106.7	106.1	106.8
St. Louis Rams	98.6	99.9	98.0
Arizona Cardinals	95.5	98.3	95.5
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias
New England Patriots	105.9	100.8	106.0
Miami Dolphins	100.3	101.2	101.4
New York Jets	97.6	94.5	97.8
Buffalo Bills	96.1	94.7	96.4
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Cincinnati Bengals	102.8	102.4	102.8
Baltimore Ravens	101.8	100.6	101.3
Pittsburgh Steelers	98.2	96.9	97.6
Cleveland Browns	94.1	94.1	94.2
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston Texans	104.4	104.1	104.6
Tennessee Titans	100.1	99.5	101.0
Indianapolis Colts	98.6	97.6	99.0
Jacksonville Jaguars	88.6	87.9	88.5
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Denver Broncos	111.2	112.5	111.9
San Diego Chargers	98.8	100.3	99.6
Kansas City Chiefs	98.0	102.3	98.7
Oakland Raiders	92.9	92.3	93.0

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Philadelphia	Kansas City	1.1	-2.1	0.4
Baltimore	Houston	0.4	-0.5	-0.3
Carolina	N Y Giants	0.5	-0.6	1.4
Cincinnati	Green Bay	-1.7	-1.3	-1.3
Dallas	St. Louis	4.8	5.8	5.4
Miami	Atlanta	-0.3	-0.9	1.6
Minnesota	Cleveland	7.7	6.3	6.7
N Y Jets	Buffalo	4.0	2.3	3.9
New England	Tampa Bay	10.7	6.2	10.6
New Orleans	Arizona	9.8	8.5	10.1
Pittsburgh	Chicago	-0.3	-2.2	-0.5
San Francisco	Indianapolis	11.1	11.5	10.8
Seattle	Jacksonville	23.5	24.4	24.1
Tennessee	San Diego	4.3	2.2	4.4
Washington	Detroit	-0.2	-3.9	-1.5
Denver	Oakland	21.3	23.2	21.9

 

PiRate Picks for College and NFL Football–September 12-16, 2013

A Week to Forget

Historically, the second week of the college football season and the first week of the NFL season has been a good one for us, but we stunk up the joint with our picks last week.  There is a reason the books call them “teasers.”  They tease you into thinking these selections are so easy to win, but they are quite the opposite.  Most people lose their shirts playing these sucker selections, but we have done quite well with them in the past due to the crossing of certain key numbers.  Oh, well: we wagered $0, so we would have either won big and collected $0, or lost big and lost $0.  That is how we suggest you wager as well—just for the fun of it.

 

This week, we have the following 17 fun selections for you to peruse.

 

College Sides

1. Texas Tech +3 ½ vs. T C U

2. Troy +8 vs. Arkansas St.

3. Louisville -13 ½ vs. Kentucky

4. Ohio U +8 ½ vs. Marshall

5. Virginia Tech -7 ½ vs. East Carolina

6. Connecticut +7 vs. Maryland

7. Wake Forest -3 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

8. Western Kentucky – 9 ½ vs. South Alabama

9. Illinois +10 vs. Washington

 

N F L Sides

10. Baltimore -6 ½ vs. Cleveland

11. Indianapolis -2 ½ vs. Miami

12. Oakland -5 ½ vs. Jacksonville

 

College Totals

13. Connecticut & Maryland UNDER 48

 

14. 10-point Teaser

Western Kentucky + ½ vs. South Alabama

UCLA +14 ½ vs. Nebraska

Texas +7 ½ vs. Ole Miss

 

15. 10-point Teaser

Illinois +20 vs. Washington

Ohio St. -5 ½ vs. California

Northwestern -20 vs. Western Michigan

 

16. 13-point Teaser

Bowling Green + 15 ½ vs. Indiana

Virginia Tech +5 ½ vs. East Carolina

Connecticut +19 ½ vs. Maryland

Florida St. -20 ½ vs. Nevada

 

17. 13-point Teaser

Iowa St. +15 ½ vs. Iowa

Alabama +5 vs. Texas A&M

Auburn +7 ½ vs. Mississippi St.

South Carolina – ½ vs. Vanderbilt

 

PiRate Picks For College and Pro Football–November 15-19, 2012

College Football Selections

It looks like one of those weeks where we think the odds are off in a lot of games.  Normally, we struggle to find enough games to select and have to squeeze a few more picks.  This week, we had the opposite happen.  We saw 25-30 selections that we really liked, and it took a couple of hours of research to whittle that number down to a reasonable amount.

 

We isolated several straight side selections where we believe the wrong team is favored, and we used some of those to play in 13-point teasers, in essence giving us what we believe are 15-20-point teasers.

 

1. Virginia +3 ½ vs. North Carolina

2. Kent St. +3 vs. Bowling Green

3. Mississippi St. -6 vs. Arkansas

4. Marshall -3 vs. Houston

5. Rice +3 ½ vs. S M U

6. Brigham Young -3 vs. San Jose St.

7. UT-San Antonio -6 ½ vs. Idaho

8. Ohio St. +2 ½ vs. Wisconsin

 

9. Money Line Parlay @ -118

Missouri over Syracuse

Georgia Tech over Duke

 

10. 13-point Teaser

Temple +16 vs. Army

Kent St. +16 vs. Bowling Green

Northwestern +20 ½ vs. Michigan St.

Rutgers +19 ½ vs. Cincinnati

 

11. 13-point Teaser

Kansas St. Pk. vs. Baylor

Tulsa +12 vs. Central Florida

Louisiana Tech +16 vs. Utah St.

Ohio St. +15 ½ vs. Wisconsin

 

 

N F L

This is the final week of byes; with four teams off, that reduces the number of games to 14.  With the Bears-49ers game off the board, it reduces the number of games to 13. 

 

1. Cleveland +9 ½ vs. Dallas

2. NY Jets +3 ½ vs. St. Louis

3. Cincinnati -3 vs. Kansas City

 

4. 13-point Teaser

Buffalo +12 vs. Miami

Detroit +16 ½ vs. Green Bay

Tampa Bay +12 vs. Carolina

New England +3 ½ vs. Indiana

 

5. 13-point Teaser

Houston -2 vs. Jacksonville

Cincinnati +9 ½ vs. Kansas City

New Orleans +8 ½ vs. Oakland

Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

 

 

PiRate Picks For College and Pro Football–November 8-12, 2012

College

We have started to warm up in the college selections with a 60% success rate over the previous four weeks, bringing our record against the spread for the season to 56%.

 

Before we get to our picks this week, here are some interesting college tidbits:

1. If Indiana upsets Wisconsin this week, the Hoosiers would more than likely become the Leaders Division representative in the Big Ten Championship Game.  They would only need to defeat a lowly Purdue team in two weeks to secure the spot.

 

2. In the event that Louisville, Cincinnati, and Rutgers finished tied for the Big East championship with 6-1 conference marks, the automatic BCS Bowl bid goes to the highest-ranked team in the BCS rankings.  Louisville would more than likely be that team, since they would be 11-1, whereas the other two would be 10-2.

 

3. There is a possibility that at least four and maybe as many as six SEC jobs could become open at the end of the regular season.  Arkansas and Kentucky already have active job searches going on, while Auburn and Tennessee are almost foregone conclusions.  Add to this the possibility that two hot coaching commodities, Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen and Vanderbilt’s James Franklin could be on several short lists, there could be a lot of new faces next year in the top conference in the land.  However, before any hot coach considers applying for these vacancies, they may have to wait to see if another job becomes available.  Texas may or may not decide that Mack Brown is ready to retire, and if that job becomes available, just about every successful coach in the nation could become a candidate, even Nick Saban.  There is also a chance that Southern Cal may wish to end the Lane Kiffin experience.  Look for a lot of interesting and surprising moves.

 

4. Nick Saban would have nothing left to prove if he wins another National Championship at Alabama.  That would give him four total and three in four years at Alabama.  He still has desires to hoist a Lombardi Trophy, and he cannot do that at Tuscaloosa.  There will be three or four openings in the NFL at the end of the season, and he could be a candidate for any of these positions.  Carolina, New Orleans, and Tennessee come to mind.

 

Here are this week’s college picks:

 

1. Louisville -2 ½ vs. Syracuse

2. Central Michigan -3 vs. Eastern Michigan

3. Kent St. -6 ½ vs. Miami (O)

4. Southern Cal -9 vs. Arizona St.

5. Arkansas +14 vs. South Carolina

 

6. 10-point Teaser

UL-Monroe +17 vs. Arkansas St.

Louisville +7 ½ vs. Syracuse

Miami +11 vs. Virginia

 

7. 10-point Teaser

North Carolina +1 vs. Georgia Tech

Alabama -3 ½ vs. Texas A&M

Georgia -5 ½ vs. Auburn

 

8. 10-point Teaser

Penn St. +17 ½ vs. Nebraska

Southern Cal +1 vs. Arizona St.

Texas Pk. vs. Iowa St.

 

9. 10-point Teaser

San Diego St. + ½ vs. Air Force

U C L A -4 ½ vs. Washington St.

Memphis +11 vs. Tulane

 

10. 13-point Teaser

Minnesota +10 vs. Illinois

Washington +14 ½ vs. Utah

Missouri +16 vs. Tennessee

Marshall +10 ½ vs. U A B

 

11. Money Line Parlay @ +106

Wisconsin over Indiana

Iowa over Purdue

 

12. Money Line Parlay @ -119

North Carolina over Georgia Tech

Kent St. over Miami (O)

 

13. Money Line Parlay @ -110

Georgia over Auburn

Southern Cal over Arizona St.

Texas over Iowa St.

 

 

N F L

We removed the totals from our teasers last week, and it worked to the tune of a 4-1 mark against the spread.  So, this week, we are continuing to rely on teasing just sides.  We have isolated a pair of games that we really like, so we are going to key them in three separate selections.  It will be feast or famine, but that’s what makes it so exciting!

 

1. Denver -3 ½ vs. Carolina

2. Philadelphia +1 ½ vs. Dallas

3. Houston +1 vs. Chicago

 

4. 10-point Teaser

Indianapolis +7 vs. Jacksonville

New England -1 vs. Buffalo

NY Giants +6 vs. Cincinnati

 

5. 10-point Teaser

San Francisco -1 vs. St. Louis

Houston +11 vs. Chicago

Pittsburgh -2 vs. Kansas City

 

6. 13-point Teaser

Denver +9 vs. Carolina

Baltimore +5 ½ vs. Oakland

Tampa Bay +10 vs. San Diego

Miami +7 ½ vs. Tennessee

 

7. 13-point Teaser

Denver +9 vs. Carolina

Baltimore +5 ½ vs. Oakland

New Orleans +15 ½ vs. Atlanta

Philadelphia +14 ½ vs. Dallas

 

8. 13-point Teaser

Denver +9 vs. Carolina

Baltimore +5 ½ vs. Oakland

New England +2 vs. Buffalo

Pittsburgh Pk. vs. Kansas City

 

9. Money Line Parlay @ -117

Pittsburgh over Kansas City

Baltimore over Oakland

New England over Buffalo

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 6-10, 2012

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate
1	Alabama	134.8
2	Kansas St.	131.1
3	Oregon	130.9
4	Oklahoma	129.0
5	L S U	125.5
6	Notre Dame	124.5
7	Florida St.	124.4
8	Texas A&M	123.9
9	South Carolina	122.6
10	Oklahoma St.	122.5
11	Georgia	121.1
12	Florida	121.1
13	Clemson	120.9
14	U S C	120.0
15	Stanford	117.6
16	Texas	117.0
17	Michigan	116.9
18	Nebraska	115.8
19	U C L A	114.8
20	Texas Tech	113.8
21	B Y U	113.8
22	Ohio St.	113.5
23	Oregon St.	113.2
24	T C U	112.5
25	Wisconsin	112.3
26	Utah	111.4
27	Iowa St.	110.8
28	West Virginia	110.6
29	Baylor	110.4
30	Michigan St.	110.3
31	North Carolina	109.9
32	Vanderbilt	109.4
33	Arizona	109.3
34	Missouri	109.2
35	Tennessee	109.2
36	Penn St.	108.4
37	Mississippi St.	108.4
38	Arizona St.	107.6
39	Washington	107.4
40	Central Florida	106.7
41	Ole Miss	106.4
42	Louisiana Tech	106.4
43	Rutgers	106.1
44	Boise St.	105.9
45	Louisville	104.9
46	Northern Illinois	104.0
47	Utah St.	104.0
48	California	104.0
49	Pittsburgh	103.8
50	Georgia Tech	103.4
51	Northwestern	103.3
52	Arkansas	103.0
53	Virginia Tech	102.9
54	Cincinnati	102.7
55	Fresno St.	102.7
56	Tulsa	102.4
57	Syracuse	101.4
58	Miami-FL	101.3
59	South Florida	100.8
60	Toledo	100.6
61	Auburn	100.6
62	North Carolina St.	99.9
63	San Diego St.	99.6
64	Purdue	98.6
65	San Jose St.	98.0
66	Duke	97.8
67	Iowa	97.8
68	Kent St.	97.2
69	Minnesota	96.8
70	Indiana	96.6
71	Virginia	96.6
72	Maryland	96.2
73	Nevada	96.1
74	Louisiana-Monroe	96.1
75	Kansas	96.1
76	Ball St.	96.0
77	Wake Forest	95.5
78	S M U	95.5
79	Western Kentucky	95.4
80	Arkansas St.	95.1
81	East Carolina	94.8
82	Bowling Green	94.5
83	Boston College	94.4
84	Washington St.	93.7
85	Connecticut	93.5
86	Ohio U	93.4
87	Western Michigan	93.4
88	Navy	93.1
89	UL-Lafayette	92.6
90	Houston	92.5
91	Illinois	91.0
92	Marshall	90.2
93	Air Force	89.2
94	Rice	89.0
95	Kentucky	88.6
96	Troy	88.3
97	U T E P	88.2
98	Temple	87.9
99	Wyoming	87.2
100	Army	87.0
101	Middle Tennessee	86.5
102	North Texas	86.4
103	Miami (O)	85.4
104	UNLV	85.1
105	U A B	84.4
106	Southern Mississippi	84.2
107	Central Michigan	84.0
108	Buffalo	84.0
109	Florida International	83.5
110	New Mexico	83.2
111	Colorado St.	80.9
112	Eastern Michigan	80.2
113	Colorado	78.9
114	Texas St.	78.3
115	Florida Atlantic	78.2
116	Hawaii	76.7
117	Tulane	76.6
118	U T S A	75.9
119	Akron	75.6
120	Idaho	75.2
121	Memphis	74.7
122	South Alabama	74.6
123	New Mexico St.	74.3
124	Massachusetts	65.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Vintage Ratings

#	Team	Vintage
1	Alabama	129.0
2	Kansas St.	127.0
3	Oregon	127.0
4	Georgia	126.5
5	Notre Dame	123.5
6	Florida	123.5
7	L S U	123.0
8	Florida St.	122.0
9	Ohio State	121.5
10	Texas A&M	121.0
11	S. Carolina	120.5
12	Stanford	119.5
13	Clemson	118.5
14	Oklahoma	118.5
15	Nebraska	116.5
16	U S C	116.5
17	Michigan	115.5
18	Oklahoma St.	115.5
19	U C L A	113.5
20	N. Carolina	113.0
21	Louisville	112.5
22	Penn State	112.5
23	B Y U	112.0
24	Miami	111.5
25	Mississippi St.	111.5
26	Michigan St.	111.0
27	Texas	110.5
28	Washington	110.5
29	Oregon St.	110.0
30	Vanderbilt	110.0
31	Wisconsin	109.5
32	Texas Tech	109.5
33	San Diego St.	109.0
34	Boise St.	108.5
35	Ole Miss	108.5
36	Utah	107.5
37	T C U	107.5
38	Rutgers	107.0
39	Northwestern	107.0
40	Arkansas	106.5
41	West Virginia	106.5
42	Fresno St.	106.0
43	Cincinnati	106.0
44	La. Tech	105.5
45	Missouri	105.5
46	Central Fla.	105.0
47	Arizona	104.5
48	Tennessee	104.5
49	Utah St.	104.0
50	Kent St.	103.5
51	Northern Ill.	103.5
52	Virginia Tech	103.5
53	Iowa St.	103.5
54	N. Carolina St.	103.0
55	Tulsa	103.0
56	Arizona St.	103.0
57	Baylor	102.5
58	Pittsburgh	102.0
59	Indiana	101.0
60	Iowa	100.0
61	Syracuse	99.5
62	Toledo	99.5
63	Nevada	99.5
64	San Jose St.	99.0
65	Duke	99.0
66	Minnesota	98.5
67	Bowling Green	98.0
68	Ohio U	98.0
69	Wake Forest	97.5
70	Georgia Tech	97.5
71	Virginia	97.5
72	California	97.5
73	Auburn	97.0
74	Navy	96.5
75	Arkansas St.	95.0
76	Ball St.	95.0
77	Maryland	94.5
78	Boston College	94.0
79	S M U	94.0
80	S. Florida	93.5
81	Air Force	93.5
82	Temple	93.0
83	East Carolina	93.0
84	Purdue	93.0
85	UL-Monroe	92.5
86	Western Mich.	92.5
87	Kansas	92.0
88	UL-Lafayette	91.0
89	Middle Tenn.	91.0
90	Western Ky.	91.0
91	Kentucky	91.0
92	Illinois	91.0
93	UNLV	90.0
94	Army	90.0
95	Miami (O)	90.0
96	Central Mich.	90.0
97	Washington St.	90.0
98	Connecticut	89.5
99	New Mexico	89.0
100	Colorado	88.5
101	Houston	88.0
102	Marshall	87.5
103	Rice	87.0
104	Colorado St.	86.5
105	Buffalo	85.5
106	Wyoming	85.0
107	Troy	84.5
108	Tulane	84.0
109	UTSA	84.0
110	U A B	83.5
111	U T E P	83.5
112	Texas St.	83.0
113	Akron	82.5
114	Florida Int’l	81.5
115	Eastern Mich.	79.5
116	Hawaii	79.0
117	Memphis	77.5
118	N. Texas	77.5
119	Idaho	77.5
120	Florida Atl.	77.0
121	Southern Miss.	76.5
122	S. Alabama	75.0
123	U. Mass.	73.5
124	N. Mexico St.	71.0

 

Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Florida St.	5-1	8-1	124.4	122.0
Clemson	5-1	8-1	120.9	118.5
North Carolina St.	2-3	5-4	99.9	103.0
Maryland	2-3	4-5	96.2	94.5
Wake Forest	3-4	5-4	95.5	97.5
Boston College	1-5	2-7	94.4	94.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
North Carolina	3-2	6-3	109.9	113.0
Georgia Tech	3-3	4-5	103.4	97.5
Virginia Tech	2-3	4-5	102.9	103.5
Miami-FL	4-2	6-3	101.3	111.5
Duke	3-3	6-4	97.8	99.0
Virginia	1-4	3-6	96.6	97.5
Conference Means	103.95		103.60	104.3

 

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Rutgers	4-0	7-1	106.1	107.0
Louisville	4-0	9-0	104.9	112.5
Pittsburgh	1-3	4-5	103.8	102.0
Cincinnati	2-1	6-2	102.7	106.0
Syracuse	3-2	4-5	101.4	99.5
South Florida	1-4	3-6	100.8	93.5
Connecticut	0-4	3-6	93.5	89.5
Temple	2-3	3-5	87.9	93.0
Conference Means	100.256		100.14	100.4

 

 

Big Ten
Leaders Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Ohio St.	6-0	10-0	113.5	121.5
Wisconsin	3-2	6-3	112.3	109.5
Penn St.	4-1	6-3	108.4	112.5
Purdue	0-5	3-6	98.6	93.0
Indiana	2-3	4-5	96.6	101.0
Illinois	0-5	2-7	91.0	91.0
Legends Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Michigan	4-1	6-3	116.9	115.5
Nebraska	4-1	7-2	115.8	116.5
Michigan St.	2-4	5-5	110.3	111.0
Northwestern	3-2	7-2	103.3	107.0
Iowa	2-3	4-5	97.8	100.0
Minnesota	1-4	5-4	96.8	98.5
Conference Means	105.763		105.11	106.4

 

 

Big 12
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Kansas St.	6-0	9-0	131.1	127.0
Oklahoma	4-1	6-2	129.0	118.5
Oklahoma St.	3-2	5-3	122.5	115.5
Texas	4-2	7-2	117.0	110.5
Texas Tech	3-3	6-3	113.8	109.5
T C U	3-3	6-3	112.5	107.5
Iowa St.	2-4	5-4	110.8	103.5
West Virginia	2-3	5-3	110.6	106.5
Baylor	1-4	4-4	110.4	102.5
Kansas	0-6	1-8	96.1	92.0
Conference Means	112.34		115.38	109.3

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Central Florida	5-0	7-2	106.7	105.0
East Carolina	5-1	6-4	94.8	93.0
Marshall	3-2	4-5	90.2	87.5
U A B	1-4	2-7	84.4	83.5
Southern Mississippi	0-5	0-9	84.2	76.5
Memphis	1-4	1-8	74.7	77.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Tulsa	5-0	7-2	102.4	103.0
S M U	3-2	4-5	95.5	94.0
Houston	3-2	4-5	92.5	88.0
Rice	2-4	4-6	89.0	87.0
U T E P	1-4	2-7	88.2	83.5
Tulane	2-3	2-7	76.6	84.0
Conference Means	89.2375		89.93	88.5

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating	Vintage
Notre Dame		9-0	124.5	123.5
B Y U		5-4	113.8	112.0
Navy		6-3	93.1	96.5
Army		2-7	87.0	90.0
Conference Means	105.05		104.60	105.5

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Kent St.	5-0	8-1	97.2	103.5
Bowling Green	4-1	6-3	94.5	98.0
Ohio U	4-1	8-1	93.4	98.0
Miami (O)	3-2	4-5	85.4	90.0
Buffalo	1-4	2-7	84.0	85.5
Akron	0-6	1-9	75.6	82.5
Massachusetts	0-5	0-9	65.7	73.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Northern Illinois	6-0	9-1	104.0	103.5
Toledo	5-0	8-1	100.6	99.5
Ball St.	3-2	6-3	96.0	95.0
Western Michigan	2-4	4-6	93.4	92.5
Central Michigan	1-4	3-6	84.0	90.0
Eastern Michigan	0-5	1-8	80.2	79.5
Conference Means	90.1923		88.77	91.6

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Boise St.	4-1	7-2	105.9	108.5
Fresno St.	5-1	7-3	102.7	106.0
San Diego St.	5-1	7-3	99.6	109.0
Nevada	3-2	6-3	96.1	99.5
Air Force	4-1	5-4	89.2	93.5
Wyoming	1-4	2-7	87.2	85.0
UNLV	2-3	2-8	85.1	90.0
New Mexico	1-4	4-6	83.2	89.0
Colorado St.	1-4	2-7	80.9	86.5
Hawaii	0-5	1-7	76.7	79.0
Conference Means	92.63		90.66	94.6

 

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Oregon	6-0	9-0	130.9	127.0
Stanford	5-1	7-2	117.6	119.5
Oregon St.	5-1	7-1	113.2	110.0
Washington	3-3	5-4	107.4	110.5
California	2-5	3-7	104.0	97.5
Washington St.	0-6	2-7	93.7	90.0
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
U S C	4-3	6-3	120.0	116.5
U C L A	4-2	7-2	114.8	113.5
Utah	2-4	4-5	111.4	107.5
Arizona	2-4	5-4	109.3	104.5
Arizona St.	3-3	5-4	107.6	103.0
Colorado	1-5	1-8	78.9	88.5
Conference Means	108.2		109.07	107.3

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
South Carolina	5-2	7-2	122.6	120.5
Georgia	6-1	8-1	121.1	126.5
Florida	7-1	8-1	121.1	123.5
Vanderbilt	3-3	5-4	109.4	110.0
Missouri	1-5	4-5	109.2	105.5
Tennessee	0-5	4-5	109.2	104.5
Kentucky	0-7	1-9	88.6	91.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Alabama	6-0	9-0	134.8	129.0
L S U	3-2	7-2	125.5	123.0
Texas A&M	4-2	7-2	123.9	121.0
Mississippi St.	3-2	7-2	108.4	111.5
Ole Miss	2-3	5-4	106.4	108.5
Arkansas	2-3	4-5	103.0	106.5
Auburn	0-6	2-7	100.6	97.0
Conference Means	112.921		113.13	112.7

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Louisiana-Monroe	4-1	6-3	96.1	92.5
Western Kentucky	3-2	6-3	95.4	91.0
Arkansas St.	4-1	6-3	95.1	95.0
UL-Lafayette	3-2	5-3	92.6	91.0
Troy	3-3	4-5	88.3	84.5
Middle Tennessee	4-1	6-3	86.5	91.0
North Texas	2-3	3-6	86.4	77.5
Florida International	1-5	2-8	83.5	81.5
Florida Atlantic	1-4	2-7	78.2	77.0
South Alabama	1-4	2-7	74.6	75.0
Conference Means	86.635		87.67	85.6

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Louisiana Tech	3-0	8-1	106.4	105.5
Utah St.	4-0	8-2	104.0	104.0
San Jose St.	3-1	7-2	98.0	99.0
Texas St.	1-2	3-5	78.3	83.0
U T S A	1-3	5-4	75.9	84.0
Idaho	1-3	1-8	75.2	77.5
New Mexico St.	0-4	1-8	74.3	71.0
Conference Means	88.2929		87.44	89.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

This Week’s Games
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Vintage
Tuesday, November 6
TOLEDO	Ball St.	7.6	7.5
Wednesday, November 7
OHIO U	Bowling Green	1.4	2.5
Thursday, November 8
Florida St.	VIRGINIA TECH	18.0	15.0
ARKANSAS ST.	UL-Monroe	2.0	5.5
Friday, November 9
Pittsburgh	CONNECTICUT	7.3	9.5
Saturday, November 10
MICHIGAN	Northwestern	16.6	11.5
CLEMSON	Maryland	27.7	27.0
NORTH CAROLINA ST.	Wake Forest	6.9	8.0
RUTGERS	Army	21.1	19.0
Louisville	SYRACUSE	0.5	10.0
Miami (Fl)	VIRGINIA	1.7	11.0
Minnesota	ILLINOIS	2.8	4.5
Wisconsin	INDIANA	12.7	5.5
IOWA	Purdue	2.2	10.0
OLE MISS	Vanderbilt	0.0	1.5
NORTH CAROLINA	Georgia Tech	9.5	18.5
Central Michigan	EASTERN MICHIGAN	1.8	8.5
Kent St.	MIAMI (O)	9.3	11.0
B Y U	Idaho	41.6	37.5
AKRON	Massachusetts	12.4	11.5
Western Michigan	BUFFALO	6.4	4.0
ALABAMA	Texas A&M	13.9	11.0
Georgia	AUBURN	17.5	26.5
NEBRASKA	Penn St.	10.4	7.0
Notre Dame	BOSTON COLLEGE	27.1	26.5
SOUTHERN CAL	Arizona St.	15.4	16.5
Utah	WASHINGTON	1.0	-6.0
Wyoming	NEW MEXICO	1.0	-7.0
San Jose St.	NEW MEXICO ST.	21.2	25.5
Oregon	CALIFORNIA	23.9	26.5
OKLAHOMA ST.	West Virginia	14.9	12.0
Kansas St.	T C U	15.6	16.5
Cincinnati	TEMPLE	12.3	10.5
TENNESSEE	Missouri	3.0	2.0
TEXAS	Iowa St.	9.2	10.0
SAN DIEGO ST.	Air Force	13.4	18.5
S M U	Southern Miss.	13.8	20.0
Marshall	U A B	3.3	1.5
Tulsa	HOUSTON	6.9	12.0
U n l v	COLORADO ST.	1.2	0.5
Boise St.	HAWAII	25.2	25.5
U c l a	WASHINGTON ST.	18.1	20.5
Central Florida	U T E P	15.5	18.5
ARIZONA	Colorado	33.4	19.0
SOUTH CAROLINA	Arkansas	22.6	17.0
TEXAS TECH	Kansas	20.7	20.5
Louisiana Tech	TEXAS ST.	25.6	20.0
OKLAHOMA	Baylor	21.6	19.0
MEMPHIS	Tulane	0.6	-4.0
STANFORD	Oregon St.	7.4	12.5
L S U	Mississippi St.	20.1	14.5
Fresno St.	NEVADA	3.6	3.5
WESTERN KENTUCKY	Florida Atlantic	20.2	17.0
Navy	TROY	1.8	9.0
NORTH TEXAS	South Alabama	14.8	5.5
FLORIDA	UL-Lafayette	31.5	32.5

 

Let’s Go Bowling

As of today, we project exactly 70 teams to finish bowl eligible, which is the exact number needed to fill 35 bowl games.  We project that 11 of these bowl bids will go to at-large teams needed to fill spots not provided by the conference tie-ins.

 

Because of this, two conferences should see a bonanza of bowl invitations.  The Mid-American Conference and the Sunbelt Conference are projected to provide seven additional teams to the bowls.  When you add the bowl tie-ins from those two leagues, it brings the total to 12 invited teams (seven from the MAC and five from the SBC).  That means that better than one out of every six bowl invitations will go to members from one of these conferences.

 

Our bowl projections are always different from others you may find online.  We don’t just project the bowls based on current standings or even projected standings.  We look at the political, geographical, and historical aspects and then search for additional evidence that might give us a clue or two.

 

For instance, this year we will rely more on geographical aspects when the opportunity exists to favor one team over another based on proximity to the host city.  It is our opinion that bowls would rather fill their stands with local teams or teams within driving distance of the city than teams that would fill hotel rooms. 

 

For instance, the WAC has just one bowl tie-in—the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl goes to the league champion.  As of this writing, we project Louisiana Tech to win out and finish 11-1.  However, we see an opportunity to put more seats in stadiums and project the folks in Boise, Idaho, to take Utah State.  That would leave La. Tech to fill an at-large spot in the Independence Bowl.

 

The BCS Bowls

As of today, we have Alabama, Kansas State, Oregon, and Notre Dame finishing undefeated.  If this happens, Alabama and Kansas State will be facing off for the national championship.

 

We have Florida State, Louisville, and Nebraska joining the quartet above as automatic qualifiers, which leaves three teams to fill at-large spots in BCS Bowls.  Since Boise State lost and fell out of contention, we are going with Clemson, Oklahoma, and LSU to be those three teams.  The SEC could send Georgia or Florida, but we believe the Sugar Bowl will want LSU instead.

 

Oregon and Nebraska would be contractually bound for the Rose Bowl, and Florida State would go to the Orange Bowl.  Here is how we see the rest of the BCS Bowls to pan out.

 

The National Championship Game would pit Alabama and Kansas State.  That means the Sugar Bowl would get first choice to select a team, and the Fiesta Bowl would get the second choice.  In 2012-13, the order of picking teams would then go Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange.

 

This is where we believe the Sugar Bowl would take LSU to guarantee a sold out stadium in New Orleans.  The Fiesta Bowl would then bypass a Big 12 team with Notre Dame available.  The Fiesta Bowl would then choose again, but they would be forced to bypass Oklahoma because they have already played the Fighting Irish.  This would leave them with Clemson.  The Sugar Bowl would then take Oklahoma, which means they would be marrying the Big 12 and SEC just after the two leagues settled on the Sugar Bowl for the future.  That leaves Louisville for the Orange Bowl.

 

Here is our list in full.

 

Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC # 4/5	Nevada	Pac12 #7 / WAC	Arizona
Famous Idaho Potato	MAC #3	Northern Illinois	WAC #1/2	Utah St.
Poinsettia	MWC #2	Fresno St.	BYU/WAC	B Y U
Beef O’Brady’s	Big East #6	(UL-Lafayette)	C-USA #2-5 (4)	East Carolina
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	Arkansas St.	C-USA #2-5 (5)	(San Jose St.)
MAACO	MWC #1	Boise St.	Pac 12 #5	U C L A
Hawaii	MWC #3/Hawaii	San Diego St.	C-USA #2-5 (2)	Tulsa
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8	(Western Ky.)	MAC #1	Kent St.
Military	ACC #8	(Bowling Green)	Army/CUSA	(Arizona St.)
Belk	ACC #5	Duke	Big East #3	Rutgers
Holiday	Pac 12 #3	Washington	Big 12 #5	Oklahoma St.
Independence	ACC #6/7 (7)	(Ball St.)	SEC #10	(La. Tech)
Russell Athletic	Big East #2	Cincinnati	ACC #3	North Carolina St.
Meineke Car Care of Texas	Big 12 #6	T C U	Big 10 #6	Minnesota
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	S M U	MWC #4-5	Air Force
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 12 #6	Oregon St.	Navy/ACC	Navy
Pinstripe	Big East #4	Pittsburgh	Big 12 #7	Iowa St.
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Texas Tech	Pac 12 #2	Stanford
Buffalo Wild Wings	Big 12 #4	West Virginia	Big 10 #4 or 5	Northwestern
Music City	SEC # 7	Vanderbilt	ACC #6	(Middle Tennessee)
Sun	ACC #4	Virginia Tech	Pac 12 #4	Southern Cal
Liberty	SEC#8-9/BigEast	Ole Miss	C-USA #1	Central Fla.
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	South Carolina	ACC #2	Miami-Fla
Heart of Dallas	Big 10 #7	(Western Mich.)	Big 12 #8	(Utah)
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	Michigan St.	SEC #6	Mississippi St.
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Michigan	SEC #2	Georgia
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	Florida	Big 10 #3	Wisconsin
Rose	BCS Pac12	Oregon	BCS Big 10	Nebraska
Orange	BCS ACC	Florida St.	BCS At-Large	Louisville
Sugar	BCS SEC	L S U	BCS At-Large	Oklahoma
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Notre Dame	BCS At-Large	Clemson
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Texas	SEC #3 or 4	Texas A&M
BBVA Compass	Big East#5/CUSA	(Ohio U)	SEC #8 or 9	Tennessee
GoDaddy.com	Sunbelt # 2	UL-Monroe	MAC #2	Toledo
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	Alabama	*** BCS #2 ***	Kansas St.

 

PiRate Picks For College and Pro Football–November 1-5, 2012

Even though we are coming off a hot month with our college picks, we don’t feel comfortable with a lot of the lines this week.  We anticipate what the lines will be, and this week, they were too close to what we thought they would be.  So, we will rely more on the teasers this week.

 

As for the NFL, we cannot get out of the mediocrity range, hovering at 50%.  Maybe the second half of the season will give us some better results now that we have started to notice certain trends.  We actually like the pro selections more than the college selections this week.

 

College

1. Penn State -3 ½ vs. Purdue

2. Clemson -13 vs. Duke

3. Kansas State -9 ½ vs. Oklahoma State

4. UCLA -3 ½ vs. Arizona

5. New Mexico +4 vs. UNLV

 

6. 10-point Teaser

Western Kentucky +1 vs. Middle Tennessee

Miami-FL +11 vs. Virginia Tech

Washington +14 ½ vs. California

 

7. 10-point Teaser

Kent State -9 vs. Akron

Kentucky +17 vs. Vanderbilt

Iowa +12 vs. Indiana

 

8. 10-point Teaser

Tulsa +18 vs. Arkansas

Colorado St. +18 vs. Wyoming

Missouri +27 ½ vs. Florida

 

9. 10-point Teaser

Michigan St. +12 vs. Nebraska

Notre Dame -6 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

Central Florida -2 vs. SMU

 

10. 10-point Teaser

Miami-OH +13 ½ vs. Buffalo

Utah -2 vs. Washington State

Oklahoma -1 vs. Iowa State

 

11. 10-point Teaser

New Mexico +14 vs. UNLV

Navy -6 vs. Florida Atlantic

Louisiana-Monroe – ½ vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

 

N F L

1. 13-point Teaser

San Diego +5 ½ vs. Kansas City

Denver +9 ½ vs. Cincinnati

Green Bay +2 vs. Arizona

Miami +10 ½ vs. Indianapolis

 

2. 13-point Teaser

Indianapolis +15 ½ vs. Miami

Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland

Houston +2 ½ vs. Buffalo

Washington +10 vs. Carolina

 

3. 13-point Teaser

Jacksonville +16 ½ vs. Detroit

Chicago +10 vs. Tennessee

Seattle +18 vs. Minnesota

Oakland +11 ½ vs. Tampa Bay

 

4. 13-point Teaser

Detroit +9 ½ vs. Jacksonville

Pittsburgh +16 ½ vs. NY Giants

Atlanta +9 vs. Dallas

New Orleans +10 vs. Philadelphia

 

5. Money Line Parlay (at -100)

Atlanta over Dallas

San Diegoover Kansas City

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 1-3, 2012

The PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate
1	Alabama	135.2
2	Kansas St.	130.8
3	Oregon	130.2
4	Oklahoma	129.0
5	Notre Dame	127.0
6	L S U	125.1
7	Florida St.	124.4
8	Oklahoma St.	122.8
9	South Carolina	122.6
10	Florida	122.2
11	Texas A&M	121.8
12	U S C	120.7
13	Georgia	120.0
14	Clemson	118.8
15	Michigan	116.4
16	Stanford	115.8
17	Nebraska	115.5
18	Texas	115.5
19	Texas Tech	115.3
20	B Y U	113.8
21	Arizona	113.3
22	Ohio St.	112.9
23	Wisconsin	112.3
24	T C U	112.2
25	Oregon St.	112.2
26	West Virginia	110.9
27	Iowa St.	110.8
28	U C L A	110.8
29	Michigan St.	110.6
30	Mississippi St.	110.5
31	Tennessee	110.0
32	North Carolina	109.9
33	Baylor	109.1
34	Arizona St.	108.6
35	Utah	108.6
36	Boise St.	108.2
37	Missouri	108.1
38	Ole Miss	107.5
39	Louisiana Tech	107.1
40	Vanderbilt	106.9
41	Rutgers	106.1
42	California	106.0
43	Penn St.	105.9
44	Washington	105.4
45	Central Florida	105.0
46	Louisville	104.3
47	Virginia Tech	104.2
48	Utah St.	103.7
49	North Carolina St.	103.5
50	Northwestern	103.3
51	Arkansas	102.8
52	Tulsa	102.6
53	Syracuse	102.2
54	Fresno St.	102.2
55	Georgia Tech	102.0
56	Cincinnati	101.9
57	Northern Illinois	101.9
58	Pittsburgh	101.3
59	Purdue	101.1
60	South Florida	100.8
61	Toledo	100.6
62	Miami-FL	100.0
63	Auburn	100.0
64	Duke	99.9
65	Louisiana-Monroe	99.1
66	Kent St.	99.0
67	Iowa	98.3
68	Maryland	97.6
69	Western Kentucky	97.6
70	Kansas	97.4
71	Minnesota	97.3
72	San Diego St.	97.3
73	S M U	97.2
74	San Jose St.	97.2
75	Washington St.	96.5
76	Indiana	96.1
77	Nevada	96.1
78	Ball St.	96.0
79	BostonCollege	95.5
80	Houston	94.9
81	Bowling Green	94.5
82	Wake Forest	94.4
83	Navy	93.9
84	Connecticut	93.5
85	Virginia	93.0
86	Western Michigan	92.9
87	Arkansas St.	92.7
88	East Carolina	92.4
89	Illinois	91.6
90	Ohio U	91.6
91	Air Force	91.6
92	Kentucky	91.1
93	Marshall	90.8
94	UL-Lafayette	89.6
95	Rice	89.5
96	North Texas	88.8
97	Temple	88.5
98	U T E P	88.2
99	Troy	87.5
100	Wyoming	86.7
101	New Mexico	86.5
102	Southern Mississippi	85.9
103	Miami (O)	85.7
104	Army	84.6
105	Central Michigan	84.5
106	Middle Tennessee	84.3
107	Buffalo	83.7
108	Florida International	83.3
109	U A B	82.7
110	Eastern Michigan	82.0
111	UNLV	81.8
112	Colorado St.	81.4
113	Colorado	80.7
114	Texas St.	78.6
115	Florida Atlantic	77.4
116	Hawaii	77.2
117	Tulane	76.1
118	Idaho	76.0
119	U T S A	75.2
120	New Mexico St.	74.9
121	South Alabama	74.8
122	Memphis	74.1
123	Akron	73.8
124	Massachusetts	67.8

 

The PiRate Vintage Ratings

#	Team	Vintage
1	Alabama	129.5
2	Kansas St.	126.5
3	Oregon	125.5
4	Notre Dame	124.0
5	Georgia	124.0
6	Florida	123.0
7	L S U	122.5
8	Florida St.	122.0
9	Ohio St.	121.5
10	Texas A&M	120.5
11	S. Carolina	119.0
12	Clemson	118.0
13	Oklahoma	118.0
14	Boise St.	117.5
15	Stanford	116.5
16	B Y U	116.0
17	Oklahoma St.	115.5
18	U S C	115.0
19	Nebraska	115.0
20	Miss. State	113.0
21	Michigan	113.0
22	U C L A	111.5
23	N. Carolina	111.5
24	Ole Miss	111.0
25	Penn St.	110.5
26	Texas Tech	110.5
27	Michigan St.	110.0
28	Louisville	109.5
29	Wisconsin	109.5
30	Arizona	109.5
31	Northwestern	109.0
32	West Virginia	109.0
33	N.C. St.	109.0
34	Washington	108.5
35	Miami	108.5
36	Tennessee	108.0
37	Oregon St.	107.5
38	Vanderbilt	107.0
39	Va. Tech	106.5
40	Texas	106.5
41	Rutgers	106.0
42	S.D. St.	106.0
43	Arizona St.	106.0
44	Kent St.	105.0
45	Fresno St.	105.0
46	Cincinnati	104.5
47	Iowa St.	104.0
48	Arkansas	104.0
49	La. Tech	103.5
50	Missouri	103.5
51	T C U	103.5
52	Utah St.	103.0
53	Utah	103.0
54	N I U	102.5
55	Air Force	102.5
56	Tulsa	102.0
57	U C F	102.0
58	Baylor	101.5
59	Syracuse	101.5
60	Iowa	100.5
61	Duke	100.5
62	Maryland	100.0
63	Toledo	99.5
64	Nevada	99.5
65	Pittsburgh	99.0
66	Minnesota	99.0
67	U L M	98.0
68	B G U	98.0
69	Indiana	98.0
70	S.J. St.	98.0
71	S M U	98.0
72	Georgia Tech	98.0
73	Ohio U	97.5
74	California	97.0
75	New Mexico	97.0
76	Boston Coll.	96.5
77	Navy	96.0
78	Auburn	96.0
79	Miami (O)	96.0
80	Wake Forest	95.5
81	Western Ky.	95.0
82	Ball St.	95.0
83	Houston	95.0
84	Temple	94.5
85	Virginia	94.0
86	Ark. St.	93.5
87	Kentucky	93.5
88	Kansas	93.0
89	Purdue	92.5
90	Washington St.	92.0
91	Connecticut	91.0
92	E C U	91.0
93	Illinois	90.5
94	W M U	90.0
95	C M U	89.5
96	S. Florida	89.5
97	Colorado	89.5
98	Texas St.	89.0
99	Colo. St.	88.5
100	U L L	88.0
101	Marshall	87.0
102	Rice	87.0
103	MTSU	87.0
104	UTSA	86.0
105	UNLV	85.0
106	Tulane	84.5
107	Army	84.5
108	Buffalo	84.5
109	U T E P	84.0
110	Troy	83.0
111	N. Texas	82.5
112	U A B	82.0
113	Akron	82.0
114	E M U	82.0
115	Wyoming	81.5
116	Sou. Miss.	81.5
117	F I U	81.0
118	F A U	79.5
119	Hawaii	79.5
120	Memphis	79.0
121	S. Alabama	79.0
122	Idaho	77.5
123	U. Mass.	75.5
124	N. Mex. St.	75.0

 

Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Florida St.	5-1	8-1	124.4	122.0
Clemson	4-1	7-1	118.8	118.0
North Carolina St.	2-2	5-3	103.5	109.0
Maryland	2-2	4-4	97.6	100.0
Boston College	1-4	2-6	95.5	96.5
Wake Forest	2-4	4-4	94.4	95.5
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
North Carolina	3-2	6-3	109.9	111.5
Virginia Tech	2-2	4-4	104.2	106.5
Georgia Tech	2-3	3-5	102.0	98.0
Miami-FL	3-2	5-3	100.0	108.5
Duke	3-2	6-3	99.9	100.5
Virginia	0-4	2-6	93.0	94.0
Conference Means	104.30		103.60	105.0

 

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Rutgers	4-0	7-1	106.1	106.0
Louisville	3-0	8-0	104.3	109.5
Syracuse	3-1	4-4	102.2	101.5
Cincinnati	1-1	5-2	101.9	104.5
Pittsburgh	1-3	4-4	101.3	99.0
South Florida	0-4	2-6	100.8	89.5
Connecticut	0-3	3-5	93.5	91.0
Temple	2-2	3-4	88.5	94.5
Conference Means	99.6313		99.83	99.4

 

 

Big Ten
Leaders Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Ohio St.	5-0	9-0	112.9	121.5
Wisconsin	3-2	6-3	112.3	109.5
Penn St.	3-1	5-3	105.9	110.5
Purdue	0-4	3-5	101.1	92.5
Indiana	1-3	3-5	96.1	98.0
Illinois	0-4	2-6	91.6	90.5
Legends Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Michigan	3-1	5-3	116.4	113.0
Nebraska	3-1	6-2	115.5	115.0
Michigan St.	2-3	5-4	110.6	110.0
Northwestern	3-2	7-2	103.3	109.0
Iowa	2-2	4-4	98.3	100.5
Minnesota	1-3	5-3	97.3	99.0
Conference Means	105.429		105.11	105.8

 

 

Big 12
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Kansas St.	5-0	8-0	130.8	126.5
Oklahoma	3-1	5-2	129.0	118.0
Oklahoma St.	3-1	5-2	122.8	115.5
Texas	3-2	6-2	115.5	106.5
Texas Tech	3-2	6-2	115.3	110.5
T C U	2-3	5-3	112.2	103.5
West Virginia	2-2	5-2	110.9	109.0
Iowa St.	2-3	5-3	110.8	104.0
Baylor	0-4	3-4	109.1	101.5
Kansas	0-5	1-7	97.4	93.0
Conference Means	112.09		115.38	108.8

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Central Florida	4-0	6-2	105.0	102.0
East Carolina	4-1	5-4	92.4	91.0
Marshall	2-2	3-5	90.8	87.0
Southern Mississippi	0-4	0-8	85.9	81.5
U A B	0-4	1-7	82.7	82.0
Memphis	1-3	1-7	74.1	79.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Tulsa	5-0	7-1	102.6	102.0
S M U	3-1	4-4	97.2	98.0
Houston	3-1	4-4	94.9	95.0
Rice	1-4	3-6	89.5	87.0
U T E P	1-4	2-7	88.2	84.0
Tulane	2-2	2-6	76.1	84.5
Conference Means	89.6833		89.95	89.4

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating	Vintage
Notre Dame		8-0	127.0	124.0
B Y U		5-4	113.8	116.0
Navy		5-3	93.9	96.0
Army		1-7	84.6	84.5
Conference Means	104.975		104.83	105.1

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Kent St.	4-0	7-1	99.0	105.0
Bowling Green	4-1	6-3	94.5	98.0
Ohio U	3-1	7-1	91.6	97.5
Miami (O)	3-1	4-4	85.7	96.0
Buffalo	0-4	1-7	83.7	84.5
Akron	0-5	1-8	73.8	82.0
Massachusetts	0-4	0-8	67.8	75.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Northern Illinois	5-0	8-1	101.9	102.5
Toledo	5-0	8-1	100.6	99.5
Ball St.	3-2	6-3	96.0	95.0
Western Michigan	1-4	3-6	92.9	90.0
Central Michigan	1-3	3-5	84.5	89.5
Eastern Michigan	0-4	1-7	82.0	82.0
Conference Means	90.4231		88.77	92.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Boise St.	4-0	7-1	108.2	117.5
Fresno St.	4-1	6-3	102.2	105.0
San Diego St.	4-1	6-3	97.3	106.0
Nevada	3-2	6-3	96.1	99.5
Air Force	4-1	5-3	91.6	102.5
Wyoming	0-4	1-7	86.7	81.5
New Mexico	1-3	4-5	86.5	97.0
UNLV	1-3	1-8	81.8	85.0
Colorado St.	1-3	2-6	81.4	88.5
Hawaii	0-4	1-6	77.2	79.5
Conference Means	93.55		90.90	96.2

 

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Oregon	5-0	8-0	130.2	125.5
Stanford	4-1	6-2	115.8	116.5
Oregon St.	4-1	6-1	112.2	107.5
California	2-4	3-6	106.0	97.0
Washington	2-3	4-4	105.4	108.5
Washington St.	0-5	2-6	96.5	92.0
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
U S C	4-2	6-2	120.7	115.0
Arizona	2-3	5-3	113.3	109.5
U C L A	3-2	6-2	110.8	111.5
Arizona St.	3-2	5-3	108.6	106.0
Utah	1-4	3-5	108.6	103.0
Colorado	1-4	1-7	80.7	89.5
Conference Means	107.929		109.07	106.8

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
South Carolina	5-2	7-2	122.6	119.0
Florida	6-1	7-1	122.2	123.0
Georgia	5-1	7-1	120.0	124.0
Tennessee	0-5	3-5	110.0	108.0
Missouri	1-4	4-4	108.1	103.5
Vanderbilt	2-3	4-4	106.9	107.0
Kentucky	0-6	1-8	91.1	93.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Alabama	5-0	8-0	135.2	129.5
L S U	3-1	7-1	125.1	122.5
Texas A&M	3-2	6-2	121.8	120.5
Mississippi St.	3-1	7-1	110.5	113.0
Ole Miss	2-2	5-3	107.5	111.0
Arkansas	2-3	3-5	102.8	104.0
Auburn	0-6	1-7	100.0	96.0
Conference Means	112.796		113.13	112.5

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Louisiana-Monroe	4-0	6-2	99.1	98.0
Western Kentucky	3-1	6-2	97.6	95.0
Arkansas St.	3-1	5-3	92.7	93.5
UL-Lafayette	2-2	4-3	89.6	88.0
North Texas	2-2	3-5	88.8	82.5
Troy	3-3	4-4	87.5	83.0
Middle Tennessee	3-1	5-3	84.3	87.0
Florida International	0-5	1-8	83.3	81.0
FloridaAtlantic	1-4	2-6	77.4	79.5
South Alabama	1-3	2-6	74.8	79.0
Conference Means	87.08		87.51	86.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Louisiana Tech	2-0	7-1	107.1	103.5
Utah St.	3-0	7-2	103.7	103.0
San Jose St.	2-1	6-2	97.2	98.0
Texas St.	1-1	3-4	78.6	89.0
Idaho	1-2	1-7	76.0	77.5
U T S A	1-2	5-3	75.2	86.0
New Mexico St.	0-4	1-7	74.9	75.0
Conference Means	88.9071		87.53	90.3

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Vintage	Line
Thursday, November 1
OHIO U	Eastern Michigan	12.1	18.0	17
Virginia Tech	MIAMI (FLA)	1.2	-5.0	1 1/2
WESTERN KENTUCKY	Middle Tennessee	15.8	10.5	9
Friday, November 2
CALIFORNIA	Washington	3.6	-8.5	4
Saturday, November 3
Penn St.	PURDUE	1.8	15.0	3 1/2
Air Force	ARMY	4.0	15.0	7 1/2
KENT ST.	Akron	27.7	25.5	19 1/2
Vanderbilt	KENTUCKY	12.8	10.5	7
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Massachusetts	37.1	30.0	35
LOUISVILLE	Temple	18.8	18.0	15 1/2
WAKE FOREST	Boston College	1.9	2.0	3 1/2
EAST CAROLINA	Houston	0.5	-1.0	-3 1/2
INDIANA	Iowa	0.8	0.5	1 1/2
Georgia Tech	MARYLAND	1.4	-5.0	7 1/2
Clemson	DUKE	15.9	14.5	13 1/2
ARKANSAS	Tulsa	3.2	5.0	7 1/2
AUBURN	New Mexico St.	28.6	24.5	22 1/2
Stanford	COLORADO	32.1	24.0	28
UTAH ST.	Texas St.	28.1	17.0	26
Alabama	L S U	6.6	3.5	9 1/2
WYOMING	Colorado St.	8.3	-4.0	8
NORTH CAROLINA ST.	Virginia	13.5	18.0	9 1/2
OREGON ST.	Arizona St.	6.6	4.5	4 1/2
FLORIDA	Missouri	17.1	22.5	17
Nebraska	MICHIGAN ST.	1.9	2.0	2
WEST VIRGINIA	T c u	1.7	8.5	6 1/2
OHIO ST.	Illinois	24.3	34.0	27 1/2
NOTRE DAME	Pittsburgh	29.2	28.5	16 1/2
LOUISIANA TECH	U t s a	34.9	20.5	32
San Jose St.	IDAHO	18.7	18.0	19
CENTRAL FLORIDA	S m u	10.8	7.0	12
SOUTH FLORIDA	Connecticut	10.3	13.5	8 1/2
Western Michigan	CENTRAL MICHIGAN	5.9	-2.0	2 1/2
BUFFALO	Miami (O)	0.5	-9.0	3 1/2
GEORGIA	Ole Miss	15.5	16.0	14
CINCINNATI	Syracuse	2.7	6.0	4 1/2
UTAH	Washington St.	15.1	14.0	11 1/2
SOUTHERN MISS.	U a b	5.7	2.0	3
MARSHALL	Memphis	19.7	11.0	20 1/2
Michigan	MINNESOTA	16.1	11.0	12 1/2
KANSAS ST.	Oklahoma St.	11.0	14.0	9 1/2
TEXAS TECH	Texas	2.8	7.0	7 1/2
Texas A&M	MISSISSIPPI ST.	8.3	4.5	7
BAYLOR	Kansas	14.7	11.5	18 1/2
Oklahoma	IOWA ST.	15.2	11.0	11 1/2
Oregon	SOUTHERN CAL	6.0	7.0	8
Rice	TULANE	10.9	0.0	4 1/2
FRESNO ST.	Hawaii	28.5	29.0	34 1/2
U C L A	Arizona	0.5	5.0	3 1/2
New Mexico	U N L V	2.2	9.5	-4
BOISE ST.	San Diego St.	13.9	14.5	13 1/2
NAVY	Florida Atlantic	19.5	19.5	16
Florida Int’l	SOUTH ALABAMA	6.0	-0.5	3 1/2
TENNESSEE	Troy	25.5	28.0	18 1/2
Arkansas St.	NORTH TEXAS	1.4	8.5	6
UL-MONROE	UL-Lafayette	11.5	12.0	10

 

This Weeks Bowl Speculation

Teams in (Parentheses) are at-large selections 

Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC # 4/5	New Mexico	Pac12 #7 / WAC	Washington
Famous Idaho Potato	MAC #3	Northern Illinois	WAC #1/2	Louisiana Tech
Poinsettia	MWC #2	San Diego St.	BYU/WAC	B Y U
Beef O’Brady’s	Big East #6	(Bowling Green)	C-USA #2-5 (4)	East Carolina
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	Western Kentucky	C-USA #2-5 (5)	S M U
MAACO	MWC #1	Nevada	Pac 12 #5	Arizona
Hawaii	MWC #3/Hawaii	Fresno St.	C-USA #2-5 (2)	Tulsa
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8	(Middle Tennessee)	MAC #1	Kent St.
Military	ACC #8	(Utah St.)	Army/CUSA	(Central Michigan)
Belk	ACC #5	Virginia Tech	Big East #3	Cincinnati
Holiday	Pac 12 #3	Southern Cal	Big 12 #5	West Va.
Independence	ACC #6/7 (7)	(San Jose St.)	SEC #10	(Miami-OH)
Russell Athletic	Big East #2	Rutgers	ACC #3	Miami-Fla
Meineke Car Care of Texas	Big 12 #6	Iowa St.	Big 10 #6	Minnesota
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	Houston	MWC #4-5	Air Force
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 12 #6	U C L A	Navy/ACC	Navy
Pinstripe	Big East #4	Pittsburgh	Big 12 #7	(Arizona St.)
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Texas	Pac 12 #2	Stanford
Buffalo Wild Wings	Big 12 #4	Oklahoma St.	Big 10 #4 or 5	Northwestern
MusicCity	SEC # 7	Ole Miss	ACC #6	Duke
Sun	ACC #4	North Carolina St.	Pac 12 #4	Oregon St.
Liberty	SEC#8-9/BigEast	Tennessee	C-USA #1	Central Fla.
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	Texas A&M	ACC #2	Clemson
Heart of Dallas	Big 10 #7	(Ohio U)	Big 12 #8	(Arkansas St.)
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	Wisconsin	SEC #6	Mississippi St.
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Michigan St.	SEC #2	Florida
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	South Carolina	Big 10 #3	Michigan
Rose	BCS Pac12	Oregon	BCS Big 10	Nebraska
Orange	BCS ACC	Florida St.	BCS At-Large	Louisville
Sugar	BCS SEC	Notre Dame	BCS At-Large	Boise St.
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Oklahoma	BCS At-Large	Georgia
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Texas Tech	SEC #3 or 4	L S U
BBVA Compass	Big East#5/CUSA	(Ball St.)	SEC #8 or 9	Vanderbilt
GoDaddy.com	Sunbelt # 2	UL-Monroe	MAC #2	Toledo
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	Alabama	*** BCS #2 ***	Kansas St.

 

PiRate Picks For College and Pro Football–October 25-29, 2012

Rarely do we find so many games this late in the season that we feel so passionate about, but this week, the PiRates believe many of the college lines are out of whack.  We are going with a baker’s dozen picks, with 12 being straight side selections, something we rarely ever do.

 

College

1. Clemson -11 ½ vs. Wake Forest

2. Miami (O) +7 vs. Ohio U

3. Ball St. -4 ½ vs. Army

4. Maryland +1 ½ vs. Boston College

5. North Carolina St. +7 ½ vs. North Carolina

6. Boise St. -16 ½ vs. Wyoming

7. Georgia +7 vs. Florida

8. Missouri -13 ½ vs. Kentucky

9. Arizona St. -6 ½ vs. UCLA

10. Kansas St. -7 vs. Texas Tech

11. Notre Dame +11 vs. Oklahoma

12. Michigan +2 vs. Nebraska

 

13. 10-point Teaser

Iowa +16 vs. Northwestern

Maryland +11 ½ vs. Boston College

Indiana +12 vs. Illinois

 

N F L

1. Minnesota -6 ½ vs. Tampa Bay

2. St. Louis +7 vs. New England

3. Atlanta +3 vs. Philadelphia

4. New York Jets -2 ½ vs. Miami

5. Oakland +1 vs. Kansas City

6. New York Giants -1 vs. Dallas

 

7. 13-point Teaser

Indianapolis +16 ½ vs. Tennessee

Green Bay -2 ½ vs. Jacksonville

Cleveland +15 ½ vs. San Diego

Atlanta +16 vs. Philadelphia

 

8. 13-point Teaser

Detroit +11 vs. Seattle

New York Jets +10 ½ vs. Miami

Oakland +14 vs. Kansas City

New York Giants +11 vs. Dallas

 

9. 13-point Teaser

Indianapolis & Tennessee OVER 33 ½

Green Bay & Jacksonville OVER 32 ½

Atlanta & Philadelphia OVER 32

Oakland & Kansas City OVER 28 ½