The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 29, 2012

PiRate Ratings For College Week 1: August 30-September 3, 2012

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:07 am

Welcome back to the PiRate Ratings.  Wasn’t it yesterday that the New York Giants were winning the Super Bowl?  My, how time flies when you are getting old. 

 

For those of you new to this site, we are a combination sports’ ratings site, sports’ commentary site, and even occasionally a political and nutritional pundit site.

 

Beginning today, we release our initial college football ratings and spreads for week one of the college season.

 

The NFL ratings and spreads will be released next Tuesday, September 4.

 

At some point after both party conventions have concluded, and the respective bounces have been reflected in six major polls, we will begin handicapping the 2012 Presidential race as well as the key Senate races, and a general look at the House races.

 

Before we reveal the new ratings and spreads for this week, we have a couple of announcements:

 

1. We do not advocate using these ratings for the purpose of wagering money.  We don’t want to see you unable to pay your internet connection bills after you lose everything.  If we were to take a vacation in Las Vegas at one of the Sportsbooks, we would never rely on these ratings to wager. 

 

2. The PiRate Ratings are happy and proud to be included in Todd Beck’s “Prediction Tracker” and Kenneth Massey’s College Football Comparison.  You can find links to both excellent sites in the upper right corner of this website.

 

3. It was brought to our attention by one of our Cheesehead friends in Wisconsin that the PiRate Ratings finished in first place against the spread in the NFL Prediction Tracker Ratings.  At first, we thought he was joking, but apparently we actually did turn the trick.  Still, we do not advocate using our ratings for that purpose, even though they are 90%+ predictive ratings and less than 10% retrodictive ratings.

 

How The “Smarts” Beat The Sportsbooks

We have been sitting on this information for several years, but since an insider who used to supply information to us is no longer in the game, we have permission to reveal this information.

 

You have probably heard that it is impossible to beat the sportsbooks over time, because their 10% vigorish always gets you in the end.  You may be able to win one season, but over the course of time, you will slowly lose your money to the books.  If you are not familiar with how a standard wager works, you put up $11 to the books’ $10.  Let’s say you want to make a bet to win $100.  If your team covers the spread, you win $100.  If your team fails to cover the spread, you are out $110.  This means that you must win better than 11 out of 21 times to make a profit (52.4%).  Most people will win half of the time, so your return on investment will be -5%.  The books actually don’t want you to lose more than 5%, because you won’t stay a customer for long.  Just lose 5% every week, and they are happy knowing you believe you are close to coming up with the magic formula.

 

There actually is a magic formula, but unless you are a Cal Tech mathematics genius that can program a computer to figure almost anything, you are not going to figure it out.  There are a select handful of professional bettors that have access to such computer programs.  They can input more data into these computers than you could ever dream up on your own.  Obvious things like comparable scores, total yardage, yards per point, and home field advantage would not give you much of an edge.  However, these computers use inside information, such as player X’s blocking ability against the run, or team Y’s tendency to protect a lead and play conservatively, but only against certain other teams.

 

Most of the computer ratings you see online stay within a range of 45-55% against the spread.  Half of these ratings are not even designed to beat the spread, and they actually are successful if they finish 50% against the line.  The select elite computer does not beat the spread 70% of the time (when you see any service claiming this, run away as fast as you can, because you are being conned).  These computers hit on the right team between 60 and 65% of the time.  It selects a minimal amount of games every week, sometimes no plays and seldom more than seven in a week.  All these heavy hitters want to do is win three out of five games, so over time they can do to the books what the books are doing to the rest of the public.

 

If these bettors won 70% of their wagers, there would be no way to get action on any games, because they would be cut off.  As it is, they have to find people that appear to have no connection with them to place wagers for them (sort of like couriers).  They give these representatives a cut of the action for winning and do not take anything away from them if they lose.  Over time, the books get wise and figure out who is betting on the smart side every week and bans these couriers.  Sometimes, a courier can be a good enough actor to keep from being caught. 

 

Here is one sure way to get caught.  I will use the example that I know about in the here and now.  Let us look at ESPN’s nationally televised opening college football game of the season.  South Carolina plays Vanderbilt in Nashville on Thursday, August 30.

 

During the summer, a few of the books set an opening line of South Carolina -8.  One super computer believed this spread to be off by two points.  Just two points is enough to trigger an immediate deposit of six figures in a game like this.  Also, when the smart guys run to make several wagers on a game like this, the line moves immediately.  The smart money went to all the outlets where they could get action through their couriers.  They put a lot of dough on the Commodores through multiple $10,000, $25,000, and $50,000 wagers, whatever they were allowed to wager on Vanderbilt +8.

 

Within a couple of days, the line dropped to South Carolina -4.  This four point swing was exactly what these smarts wanted.  At USC -4, the spread was now two point off in the other direction.  So what did these geniuses do?  They sent their couriers out to bet the other side and take South Carolina -4.  The sportsbooks do not like this one bit and do not take kindly to such a move like this by the smarts.  They will lose more money than they care to lose if the South Carolina wins by 5, 6, or 7.  6 and 7 are magic numbers in football, because so many games are decided by 6 or 7 points. 

 

Assuming the same amount of money is wagered in both bets (which is what they do), let us look at a smart play like this.  Six possible outcomes can affect these two wagers—Vanderbilt +8 and South Carolina -4:

 

1. Vanderbilt wins or loses by less than 4 (smarts go 1-1)

2. South Carolina wins by more than 8 (smarts go 1-1)

3. South Carolina wins by 3 or less. (smarts go 1-1)

4. South Carolina wins by 4 (smarts go 1-0 with a push)

5. South Carolina wins by 8 (smarts go 1-0 with a push)

6. South Carolina wins by 5, 6, or 7 (smarts go 2-0)

 

If the Smarts go 1-1, they are out 5% of their investment.  They win one bet and lose the other. 

 

Example: If you bet both games at $110 to win $100, you win $100 and lose $110, which means you are out $10 on $200 wagered or 5%.

 

If the Smarts go 1-0 with a push, they win 100% on their win and lose nothing on the push for a return of 50% on their investment.

 

If they win both bets, then they have won 100% of their investment and have broken the books. 

 

Without factoring in the possibility of a push in one game, all these smart money players have to do in these type of wagers is win both sides just one time in 19 tries If they lose 18 times, they are out 5% * 18 or 90%.  If they win 100% on the 19th time, then they have a profit.  When the spread swing by four points and allows both sides to be bet so that the smart guys can get both 6 and 7 points on both wagers, they are going to win a lot more than once in 19 tries, especially if their computer shows the spread to be 6.

 

You cannot take advantage of this, because you do not have access to the computer that shows the spread to be 6 points.  You had no clue that the spread on the game would drop from 8 to 4 in five days, because you cannot cause it to change when you wager $10 on the game. 

 

If you want to become a “smart,” keep the $10 in your pocket and just enjoy the game.

 

The College PiRate Ratings for Wednesday, August 29, 2012

#

Team

PiRate

1

L S U

131.4

2

Oklahoma

130.6

3

U S C

130.5

4

Alabama

126.5

5

Oklahoma St.

125.2

6

Michigan

123.1

7

Oregon

122.1

8

Texas

121.4

9

Florida St.

120.0

10

Kansas St.

119.9

11

Arkansas

119.5

12

Stanford

119.1

13

Georgia 

118.6

14

Notre Dame

118.4

15

Wisconsin

118.4

16

Nebraska

117.6

17

S. Carolina

117.3

18

Florida 

116.1

19

Tennessee

115.5

20

Clemson

115.0

21

Missouri

114.3

22

Michigan St.

113.8

23

OhioState

113.7

24

Texas A&M

113.2

25

West Virginia

113.0

26

Va. Tech

111.8

27

Texas Tech

111.8

28

Baylor

111.6

29

Utah

111.6

30

Auburn

111.5

31

T C U

111.2

32

Vanderbilt

110.6

33

U C L A

110.5

34

California

109.1

35

N. Carolina

109.0

36

Miss.State

108.6

37

B Y U

108.2

38

S. Florida

108.0

39

Georgia Tech

107.4

40

Pittsburgh

107.1

41

Rutgers

106.5

42

Oregon St.

106.0

43

Illinois

105.9

44

Houston

105.9

45

IowaState

105.9

46

Washington

105.8

47

Arizona

105.6

48

Louisville

105.3

49

Tulsa

104.9

50

Iowa

104.2

51

Purdue

103.3

52

N.C.State

103.1

53

Boise St.

103.1

54

Boston Coll.

102.9

55

Washington St.

102.1

56

Kansas

101.7

57

La. Tech

101.1

58

Ole Miss

100.8

59

U C F

100.5

60

Connecticut

100.3

61

Cincinnati

100.2

62

Virginia

100.0

63

Minnesota

99.5

64

Miami

99.3

65

Arizona St.

99.3

66

WakeForest

98.6

67

Duke

98.4

68

Northwestern

98.3

69

Sou. Miss.

98.3

70

S M U

97.9

71

PennState

97.7

72

Nevada

97.6

73

Syracuse

96.5

74

Maryland

95.6

75

Kentucky

95.2

76

Ohio U

94.8

77

W M U

94.6

78

Marshall

94.3

79

Toledo

93.6

80

E C U

93.6

81

Miami (O)

93.5

82

B G U

93.0

83

Indiana

92.9

84

Colorado

92.6

85

N I U

92.1

86

Army

92.1

87

S.D.State

92.0

88

WesternKy.

92.0

89

F I U

92.0

90

Wyoming

91.8

91

Fresno St.

91.7

92

Utah St.

91.3

93

Navy

91.1

94

U T E P

90.2

95

U L L

89.6

96

C M U

89.3

97

Rice

89.0

98

Kent St.

88.7

99

Ball St.

88.6

100

Ark.State

88.6

101

Temple

88.0

102

S.J.State

87.6

103

E M U

87.2

104

Colo.State

86.9

105

N. Texas

86.0

106

Air Force

85.9

107

U L M

85.5

108

Troy

83.5

109

Hawaii

82.9

110

Buffalo

82.6

111

U A B

81.9

112

Idaho

80.8

113

Tulane

79.9

114

New Mexico

79.4

115

UNLV

77.5

116

N. Mex.State

75.9

117

F A U

75.8

118

Memphis

75.7

119

MTSU

75.1

120

UTSA

74.1

121

Texas St.

73.6

122

S. Alabama

73.0

123

U. Mass.

69.5

124

Akron

69.2

 

 

The PiRate Vintage Ratings

#

Team

Vintage

1

L S U

120

2

Alabama

119

3

U S C

118

4

Oklahoma

117

5

Oregon

116

6

Georgia  

116

7

Michigan

116

8

Florida St.

115

9

S. Carolina

114

10

OhioState

114

11

Clemson

113

12

Texas

113

13

Notre Dame

113

14

Wisconsin

112

15

Arkansas

112

16

California

112

17

Florida 

111

18

Nebraska

111

19

Stanford

111

20

Michigan St.

110

21

B Y U

110

22

Utah

110

23

N.C.State

110

24

Kansas St.

110

25

Oklahoma St.

109

26

Va. Tech

109

27

Georgia Tech

109

28

Tennessee

109

29

Louisville

109

30

U C L A

108

31

Missouri

108

32

N. Carolina

108

33

Arizona

108

34

T C U

107

35

West Virginia

107

36

Pittsburgh

107

37

Iowa

107

38

Washington

107

39

Boston Coll.

107

40

Purdue

107

41

S. Florida

106

42

Miss.State

106

43

Tulsa

105

44

Illinois

105

45

Auburn

105

46

Texas A&M

105

47

Oregon St.

105

48

Virginia

105

49

Rutgers

104

50

Texas Tech

104

51

Boise St.

103

52

Miami

103

53

S M U

103

54

Vanderbilt

103

55

Arizona St.

103

56

Duke

103

57

Cincinnati

102

58

U C F

102

59

PennState

102

60

Nevada

101

61

La. Tech

101

62

Northwestern

100

63

Baylor

100

64

Houston

100

65

Washington St.

100

66

Maryland

100

67

Kentucky

100

68

Connecticut

99

69

WakeForest

99

70

Ole Miss

99

71

Sou. Miss.

98

72

Ohio U

98

73

Syracuse

97

74

Air Force

97

75

Indiana

97

76

Minnesota

97

77

Army

97

78

Utah St.

96

79

W M U

96

80

IowaState

96

81

Marshall

96

82

Colorado

96

83

E C U

95

84

Fresno St.

95

85

S.J.State

95

86

Navy

94

87

WesternKy.

94

88

Toledo

94

89

S.D.State

94

90

U T E P

93

91

F I U

93

92

Miami (O)

93

93

B G U

92

94

N I U

92

95

Kansas

92

96

Colo.State

92

97

Temple

91

98

U A B

91

99

Troy

91

100

C M U

91

101

Idaho

91

102

E M U

90

103

Tulane

89

104

U L L

89

105

Wyoming

89

106

Ball St.

88

107

Ark.State

87

108

MTSU

87

109

Buffalo

87

110

Kent St.

87

111

Hawaii

87

112

Rice

86

113

U L M

85

114

Memphis

84

115

N. Texas

84

116

Akron

84

117

New Mexico

83

118

Texas St.

83

119

F A U

82

120

N. Mex.State

81

121

UNLV

80

122

U. Mass.

79

123

S. Alabama

78

124

UTSA

77

 

 

Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

FloridaState

0-0

0-0

120.0

115

Clemson  

0-0

0-0

115.0

113

North CarolinaState

0-0

0-0

103.1

110

BostonCollege

0-0

0-0

102.9

107

WakeForest

0-0

0-0

98.6

99

Maryland

0-0

0-0

95.6

100

       

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Virginia Tech

0-0

0-0

111.8

109

North Carolina

0-0

0-0

109.0

108

Georgia Tech

0-0

0-0

107.4

109

Virginia

0-0

0-0

100.0

105

Miami-FL

0-0

0-0

99.3

103

Duke

0-0

0-0

98.4

103

       

 

       

 

Conference Means

105.92

 

105.09

107

 

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

South Florida

0-0

0-0

108.0

106

Pittsburgh

0-0

0-0

107.1

107

Rutgers

0-0

0-0

106.5

104

Louisville

0-0

0-0

105.3

109

Connecticut

0-0

0-0

100.3

99

Cincinnati

0-0

0-0

100.2

102

Syracuse

0-0

0-0

96.5

97

Temple

0-0

0-0

88.0

91

 

 

 

   
 

 

 

   
Conference Means

101.681

 

101.49

102

 

 

Big Ten

         
Leaders Division      

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Wisconsin  

0-0

0-0

118.4

112

OhioState

0-0

0-0

113.7

114

Illinois

0-0

0-0

105.9

105

Purdue

0-0

0-0

103.3

107

PennState

0-0

0-0

97.7

102

Indiana

0-0

0-0

92.9

97

         
Legends Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Michigan

0-0

0-0

123.1

116

Nebraska

0-0

0-0

117.6

111

MichiganState

0-0

0-0

113.8

110

Iowa

0-0

0-0

104.2

107

Minnesota

0-0

0-0

99.5

97

Northwestern

0-0

0-0

98.3

100

         
Conference Means

106.933

 

107.37

107

 

 

Big 12

         
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Oklahoma

0-0

0-0

130.6

117

OklahomaState  

0-0

0-0

125.2

109

Texas

0-0

0-0

121.4

113

KansasState

0-0

0-0

119.9

110

West Virginia

0-0

0-0

113.0

107

Texas Tech

0-0

0-0

111.8

104

Baylor

0-0

0-0

111.6

100

T C U

0-0

0-0

111.2

107

IowaState

0-0

0-0

105.9

96

Kansas

0-0

0-0

101.7

92

         
 

 

 

   
Conference Means

110.365

 

115.23

106

 

 

Conference USA

East Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Central Florida

0-0

0-0

100.5

102

Southern Mississippi  

0-0

0-0

98.3

98

Marshall

0-0

0-0

94.3

96

East Carolina

0-0

0-0

93.6

95

U A B

0-0

0-0

81.9

91

Memphis

0-0

0-0

75.7

84

         
West Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Houston

0-0

0-0

105.9

100

Tulsa

0-0

0-0

104.9

105

S M U

0-0

0-0

97.9

103

U T E P

0-0

0-0

90.2

93

Rice

0-0

0-0

89.0

86

Tulane

0-0

0-0

79.9

89

         
         
Conference Means

93.9208

 

92.68

95

 

 

Independents

         
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Notre Dame  

0-0

118.4

113

B Y U  

0-0

108.2

110

Army  

0-0

92.1

97

Navy  

0-0

91.1

94

         
         
Conference Means

102.975

 

102.45

104

 

 

Mid American Conference

East Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Ohio U

0-0

0-0

94.8

98

Miami (O)

0-0

0-0

93.5

93

Bowling Green

0-0

0-0

93.0

92

Kent St.

0-0

0-0

88.7

87

Buffalo

0-0

0-0

82.6

87

Massachusetts

0-0

0-0

69.5

79

Akron

0-0

0-0

69.2

84

         
West Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Western Michigan

0-0

0-0

94.6

96

Toledo

0-0

0-0

93.6

94

Northern Illinois  

0-0

0-0

92.1

92

Central Michigan

0-0

0-0

89.3

91

BallState

0-0

0-0

88.6

88

Eastern Michigan

0-0

0-0

87.2

90

         
         
Conference Means

88.7577

 

87.44

90

 

 

Mountain West Conference

         
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

BoiseState

0-0

0-0

103.1

103

Nevada

0-0

0-0

97.6

101

San DiegoState

0-0

0-0

92.0

94

Wyoming

0-0

0-0

91.8

89

FresnoState

0-0

0-0

91.7

95

ColoradoState

0-0

0-0

86.9

92

Air Force

0-0

0-0

85.9

97

Hawaii

0-0

0-0

82.9

87

New Mexico

0-0

0-0

79.4

83

UNLV

0-0

0-0

77.5

80

 

 

 

   
Conference Means

90.49

 

88.88

92.10

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Oregon  

0-0

0-0

122.1

116

Stanford

0-0

0-0

119.1

111

California

0-0

0-0

109.1

112

OregonState

0-0

0-0

106.0

105

Washington

0-0

0-0

105.8

107

WashingtonState

0-0

0-0

102.1

100

         
South Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

U S C

0-0

0-0

130.5

118

Utah

0-0

0-0

111.6

110

U C L A

0-0

0-0

110.5

108

Arizona

0-0

0-0

105.6

108

ArizonaState

0-0

0-0

99.3

103

Colorado

0-0

0-0

92.6

96

         
         
Conference Means

108.679

 

109.53

108

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Georgia

0-0

0-0

118.6

116

South Carolina

0-0

0-0

117.3

114

Florida

0-0

0-0

116.1

111

Tennessee

0-0

0-0

115.5

109

Missouri

0-0

0-0

114.3

108

Vanderbilt

0-0

0-0

110.6

103

Kentucky

0-0

0-0

95.2

100

         
West Division        
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

L S U  

0-0

0-0

131.4

120

Alabama

0-0

0-0

126.5

119

Arkansas

0-0

0-0

119.5

112

Texas A&M

0-0

0-0

113.2

105

Auburn

0-0

0-0

111.5

105

MississippiState

0-0

0-0

108.6

106

Ole Miss

0-0

0-0

100.8

99

         
         
Conference Means

111.646

 

114.22

109

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

         
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-0

92.0

94

Florida International

0-0

0-0

92.0

93

U. of Louisiana

0-0

0-0

89.6

89

ArkansasState  

0-0

0-0

88.6

87

North Texas

0-0

0-0

86.0

84

Louisiana-Monroe

0-0

0-0

85.5

85

Troy

0-0

0-0

83.5

91

FloridaAtlantic

0-0

0-0

75.8

82

Middle Tennessee

0-0

0-0

75.1

87

South Alabama

0-0

0-0

73.0

78

         
         
Conference Means

85.555

 

84.11

87

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

         
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Vintage

Louisiana Tech  

0-0

0-0

101.1

101

UtahState

0-0

0-0

91.3

96

San JoseState

0-0

0-0

87.6

95

Idaho

0-0

0-0

80.8

91

New MexicoState

0-0

0-0

75.9

81

U T S A

0-0

0-0

74.1

77

TexasState

0-0

0-0

73.6

83

         
         
Conference Means

86.3143

 

83.49

89

 

 

As you can tell, we have a new rating this season—the PiRate Vintage Rating.  This is actually a modification of our old pre-computer formula from 30+ years ago.  It was found during spring cleaning in a basement, and we modified it to 21st Century standard by spitting the data into a mathematical formula.

 

We have one new twist to our spreads this year.  We always include home-field advantage into our ratings.  It can be different every week.  For instance, If USC plays at UCLA, there is a totally different homefield advantage for the Bruins than if Syracuse plays at UCLA.

 

Beginning this season, road disadvantage has been added to the spread.  When Illinois hosts somebody like UMass, UMass will be more at a disadvantage than if Illinois hosted Ball State.

 

Also, we have a formula that adjusts the spread based on injuries to starters.  It is a set amount based on the position, so there are kinks to work out since Matt Barkley is worth more points if lost to USC than Barry Brunetti would be worth if lost to Ole Miss.

 

Without further adieu, here are the ratings’ spreads for week one.

This Week’s Games

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

PiRate

Vintage

Line

Thursday, August 30

 

 

 

South Carolina

VANDERBILT

3.8

8.0

6 1/2

Central Florida

AKRON

29.3

16.0

24   

BALL STATE

Eastern Michigan

3.4

0

3 1/2

CONNECTICUT

Massachusetts

33.3

22.5

24 1/2

U c l a

RICE

18.5

19

16 1/2

B Y U

Washington State

9.4

13.5

12 1/2

Minnesota

U N L V

18.4

13.5

8 1/2

 

 

 

 

 

Friday, August 31

 

 

 

Tennessee   (N)

North Carolina State

9.9

-3.5

3   

MICHIGAN STATE

Boise State

13.7

10

7   

STANFORD

San Jose State

33.5

18

25 1/2

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday, September 1

 

 

 

Notre Dame (N)

Navy

30.3

22

15 1/2

WEST VIRGINIA

Marshall

20.7

13

25   

PENN STATE

Ohio U

4.9

6

6   

SYRACUSE

Northwestern

1.2

0

-1 1/2

OHIO STATE

Miami (O)

24.2

25

23   

ILLINOIS

Western Michigan

15.1

13

10   

IOWA STATE

Tulsa

4.0

-6

-1 1/2

CALIFORNIA

Nevada

14.5

14

11   

NEBRASKA

Southern Mississippi

23.3

17

20   

BOSTON COLLEGE

Miami (Fla)

6.6

7

-2   

Iowa  (N)

Northern Illinois

12.1

15

10   

Colorado  (N)

Colorado State

5.7

4

6 1/2

GEORGIA

Buffalo

39.8

33

37 1/2

FLORIDA

Bowling Green

27.1

23

29   

TEXAS

Wyoming

33.1

27.5

30   

HOUSTON

Texas State

35.3

20

36 1/2

Clemson  (N)

Auburn

7.5

8

3 1/2

SOUTHERN CAL

Hawaii

51.1

34.5

40   

Alabama  (N)

Michigan

3.4

3

13 1/2

Rutgers

TULANE

26.6

15

20   

Oklahoma

U T E P

38.4

22

30 1/2

ARIZONA

Toledo

15.2

17

10   

WASHINGTON

San Diego State

16.2

15.5

14 1/2

UAB

Troy

0.4

2

-6   

DUKE

Florida Int’l

8.9

12.5

3 1/2

L S U

North Texas

49.4

40

43   

OREGON

Arkansas State

38.0

33.5

35 1/2

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, September 2

 

 

 

LOUISVILLE

Kentucky

12.9

12

13 1/2

BAYLOR

S m u

16.2

-.5

10   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, September 3

 

 

 

VIRGINIA TECH

Georgia Tech

7.9

3.5

7 1/2

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September 1, 2011

PiRate Picks For September 1-5, 2011

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:52 am

PiRate Picks For September 1-5, 2011

To Paraphrase the legendary former Tennessee Volunteers radio announcer John Ward, “It’s Football Time in America.”

 

For a lot of you reading this, the past year or two or ten have not been the most financially sound years.  We understand your plight; we have been there ourselves.

 

During the Great Depression of the 1930’s, many Americans relied on diversions to forget their plight.  They turned to the new great medium of talkies—movies with sound, making Shirley Temple a great star.

 

Many listened to their large radios, as Jack Benny, Fred Allen, and George and Gracie gave them some laughs.

 

A large part of the nation turned to baseball.  With Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig, Jimmy Foxx, Hank Greenberg, Mel Ott, Lefty Grove, and later in the decade Ted Williams, Joe Dimaggio, and Bob Feller, the nation was able to forget all their troubles for at least a couple of hours at a time.

 

That is what we are trying to do here with our football selections this year.  We no longer will be charging customers for our picks.  We were only 54.5% correct last year (97-81-3) after finishing above 60% the year before, so we decided to make these picks fun and not serious. 

 

Now, for the disclaimer: we advise against using this information for illegal purposes.  Truth be told: none of us here have placed a monetary wager on any football games outside the state of Nevada EVER!  This is more about having fun than trying to own the Las Vegas Hilton.  So, please do not lose whatever you have left, even if our money is phony fiat currency, because you have taken the advice of this blog.

 _____________________________________________________________________________________ 

1. Wake Forest + 6 ½ vs. SYRACUSE

 

Syracuse is a weaker team this year with the loss of seven key defensive players and their star running back.  They won four games by six points or less.  Three of their other four wins came against Akron, Maine, and Colgate.  We have the Orangemen pegged for the bottom of the Big East this year

 

Wake Forest has suffered through back-to-back losing seasons after earning bowl bids three consecutive seasons.  They have most of their skill position players returning on offense, and they have a lot of experience returning on defense.  Against teams that we believe to be about as strong last year as Syracuse is this year, The Demon Deacons beat Duke by six, lost to Georgia Tech by four, and lost to Navy by one. 

 

We believe Wake Forest has almost a 50% chance of winning this game straight up and do not worry about the tricky six point spread losing by one.  We would take this game at +4 hoping to get one point more than the field goal.

 

2. T C U & Baylor UNDER 56

 

TCU starts life without Andy Dalton and three of the top four receivers from last year’s team that averaged 42 points per game.  Against teams from the automatic qualifying conferences, they averaged less than 26 points per game over the last three seasons.  The Horned Frogs’ defense is still in decent shape, and even with the loss of several starters from 2010, the backups got a lot of playing time and did well.  In those games against AQ conference teams in the last three years, TCU has given up less than 18 points per game.  26+18 = 44.

 

Baylor scored just 10 points on TCU last year.  The Bears averaged more than 31 points per game and gave up almost 31, so on the surface, it appears as if they could get into a shootout with most teams.  However, against teams with good defenses, much like what we expect from TCU, they have averaged just over 17 points per game the last three years.

 

We believe Baylor will be fired up for this home game/revenge game.  A win on national TV against an undefeated Top 3 opponent from last year would verify them as a legitimate minor power.

 

We are looking for a close game with either team winning by a score of about 24-21.  That is 11 points under the total for the game.

 

3. 10-point Teaser

A. North Texas & Florida Int’l UNDER 64

B. Kentucky & Western Kentucky UNDER 61

C. T C U & Baylor UNDER 66

 

4. 10-point Teaser

A. Ohio State & Akron UNDER 58

B. UCLA +13 vs. Houston

C. Michigan -4 vs. Western Michigan

 

5. 10-point Teaser

A. Southern Cal & Minnesota UNDER 61 ½

B. Notre Dame – ½ vs. South Florida

C. Ole Miss +13 vs. B Y U

 

6. 10-point Teaser

A. Ole Miss & Baylor OVER 47

B. California Even vs. Fresno State

C. Army & Northern Illinois UNDER 64 ½

 

7. 10-point Teaser

A. Indiana +4 vs. Ball State

B. New Mexico State + 17 ½ vs. Ohio U

C. Texas A&M -5 vs. S M U

August 31, 2011

PiRate Ratings For Week of September 1-5, 2011

PiRate Ratings—For Games of September 1-5, 2011

 

Is it us, or did this week seem to catch us all by surprise?  It sure feels like there should be another three or four weeks before the season begins.

 

Actually, 45 years ago, the college teams began fall practice around this time and did not play their first game until the Saturday after September 20.  Of course, teams played just 10 games then (some of the Big Ten still played just nine games).

 

With the exception of a few games, most of this week’s opening tilts are real duds.  It could be different if college football took our suggestions and made the opening week of the season a week of bowl classics in lieu of post-season bowl games.

 

See https://piratings.wordpress.com/2011/08/08/the-great-bowlcott/

 

If the bowls were changed to the pre-season, all of them would become vitally important, since every team would be 0-0.  70 teams could open up the season in one of the 35 bowls, and the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl would be every bit as important as the Orange and Fiesta Bowls.  These games could decide seeding for the post-season 12-team or 16-team playoff.

 

Here are the opening PiRate Ratings for week one of the college football season.  For an brief explanation of how we formulate these ratings, go to:

 

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2011/08/31/the-pirate-ratings-the-hows-and-whys/

 

 

NCAA Top 25 This Week

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Oklahoma

132.8

0

0

2

Alabama

132.4

0

0

3

TexasA&M

130.6

0

0

4

Stanford

126.4

0

0

5

Oregon

125.6

0

0

6

L S U

124.6

0

0

7

Notre Dame

123.9

0

0

8

FloridaState

123.3

0

0

9

Arkansas

122.7

0

0

10

BoiseState

121.7

0

0

11

South Carolina

121.6

0

0

12

OklahomaState

119.8

0

0

13

Southern Cal

117.2

0

0

14

MississippiState

117.0

0

0

15

Florida

116.8

0

0

16

Missouri

116.7

0

0

17

ArizonaState

116.6

0

0

18

Nebraska

116.4

0

0

19

Wisconsin

116.2

0

0

20

Virginia Tech

116.1

0

0

21

Auburn

115.6

0

0

22

Miami(Fl)

115.2

0

0

23

Michigan

114.8

0

0

24

PennState

113.4

0

0

25

Arizona

113.1

0

0

   

 

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

0-0

0-0

123.3

Clemson

0-0

0-0

110.3

BostonCollege

0-0

0-0

109.7

North CarolinaState

0-0

0-0

109.1

Maryland

0-0

0-0

106.5

WakeForest

0-0

0-0

98.5

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

0-0

0-0

116.1

Miami-FL

0-0

0-0

115.2

North Carolina

0-0

0-0

106.8

Duke

0-0

0-0

99.8

Virginia

0-0

0-0

97.9

Georgia Tech

0-0

0-0

97.5

 

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Pittsburgh

0-0

0-0

111.5

Cincinnati

0-0

0-0

108.7

West Virginia

0-0

0-0

106.6

Connecticut

0-0

0-0

102.1

South Florida

0-0

0-0

101.4

Syracuse

0-0

0-0

94.8

Rutgers

0-0

0-0

94.5

Louisville

0-0

0-0

92.2

 

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

0-0

0-0

116.2

PennState

0-0

0-0

113.4

OhioState

0-0

0-0

108.1

Illinois

0-0

0-0

107.8

Purdue

0-0

0-0

101.7

Indiana

0-0

0-0

86.5

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nebraska

0-0

0-0

116.4

Michigan

0-0

0-0

114.8

MichiganState

0-0

0-0

113.5

Iowa

0-0

0-0

107.8

Northwestern

0-0

0-0

101.2

Minnesota

0-0

0-0

101.1

 

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

0-0

0-0

132.8

TexasA&M

0-0

0-0

130.6

OklahomaState

0-0

0-0

119.8

Missouri

0-0

0-0

116.7

Texas

0-0

0-0

108.3

TexasTech

0-0

0-0

105.5

Baylor

0-0

0-0

104.0

KansasState

0-0

0-0

101.5

IowaState

0-0

0-0

100.9

Kansas

0-0

0-0

95.4

 

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

0-0

0-0

97.0

East Carolina

0-0

0-0

94.8

Central Florida

0-0

0-0

91.9

U A B

0-0

0-0

89.1

Marshall

0-0

0-0

85.8

Memphis

0-0

0-0

72.0

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Tulsa

0-0

0-0

103.6

S M U

0-0

0-0

102.0

Houston

0-0

0-0

96.7

Rice

0-0

0-0

89.7

Tulane

0-0

0-0

80.9

U T E P

0-0

0-0

76.0

 

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

0-0

123.9

B Y U  

0-0

108.5

Navy  

0-0

96.1

Army  

0-0

86.3

 

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Miami(O)

0-0

0-0

89.4

Temple

0-0

0-0

84.1

OhioU

0-0

0-0

80.8

Kent St.

0-0

0-0

80.6

Bowling Green

0-0

0-0

78.9

Buffalo

0-0

0-0

71.9

Akron

0-0

0-0

69.7

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

0-0

0-0

91.4

Western Michigan

0-0

0-0

89.0

Northern Illinois

0-0

0-0

88.5

Central Michigan

0-0

0-0

83.4

BallState

0-0

0-0

76.3

Eastern Michigan

0-0

0-0

69.6

 

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

BoiseState

0-0

0-0

121.7

T C U

0-0

0-0

110.0

Air Force

0-0

0-0

106.6

S.D.State

0-0

0-0

100.3

Colo.State

0-0

0-0

92.4

Wyoming

0-0

0-0

90.4

UNLV

0-0

0-0

85.2

New Mexico

0-0

0-0

81.7

 

 

Pac-10 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Stanford

0-0

0-0

126.4

Oregon

0-0

0-0

125.6

Washington

0-0

0-0

112.9

OregonState

0-0

0-0

112.9

California

0-0

0-0

111.3

WashingtonState

0-0

0-0

102.8

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

U S C

0-0

0-0

117.2

ArizonaState

0-0

0-0

116.6

Arizona

0-0

0-0

113.1

U C L A

0-0

0-0

110.9

Utah

0-0

0-0

108.4

Colorado

0-0

0-0

101.8

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

South Carolina

0-0

0-0

121.6

Florida

0-0

0-0

116.8

Georgia

0-0

0-0

112.6

Tennessee

0-0

0-0

106.6

Kentucky

0-0

0-0

102.2

Vanderbilt

0-0

0-0

100.0

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

0-0

0-0

132.4

L S U

0-0

0-0

124.6

Arkansas

0-0

0-0

122.7

MississippiState

0-0

0-0

117.0

Auburn

0-0

0-0

115.6

Ole Miss

0-0

0-0

99.6

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaInternational

0-0

0-0

87.1

Louisiana-Monroe

0-0

0-0

82.3

Troy

0-0

0-0

81.3

ArkansasState

0-0

0-0

81.3

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-0

75.1

MiddleTennessee

0-0

0-0

72.8

North Texas

0-0

0-0

71.9

U.ofLouisiana

0-0

0-0

71.7

FloridaAtlantic

0-0

0-0

68.7

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nevada

0-0

0-0

101.4

Hawaii

0-0

0-0

98.4

LouisianaTech

0-0

0-0

93.5

FresnoState

0-0

0-0

93.0

San JoseState

0-0

0-0

91.1

UtahState

0-0

0-0

90.2

Idaho

0-0

0-0

88.2

New MexicoState

0-0

0-0

78.8

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings

   

 

 

 

Thursday, September 1  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

WISCONSIN U n l v

35.5

49-13

35 ½

Mississippi St. MEMPHIS

43.0

52-9

29   

WakeForest SYRACUSE

0.7

27-26

-6   

IDAHO Bowling Green

12.8

31-18

7 ½

FLORIDAINT’L North Texas

18.2

31-13

13   

Kentucky  (n) Western Kentucky

27.1

37-10

19   

   

 

 

 

Friday, September 2  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

T c u BAYLOR

3.0

20-17

6   

   

 

 

 

Saturday, September 3  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

BOSTONCOLLEGE Northwestern

12.0

32-20

3   

AUBURN UtahState

30.4

40-10

22   

OHIOSTATE Akron

42.4

49-7

33 ½

MISSOURI Miami(O)

31.3

45-14

18   

ALABAMA KentState

56.3

56-0

37   

U c l a HOUSTON

11.2

38-27

-3   

MICHIGAN Western Michigan

29.3

42-13

14   

SOUTHERN CAL Minnesota

20.1

30-10

23   

NOTRE DAME South Florida

26.5

41-14

10 ½

B y u OLE MISS

3.9

27-23

3   

STANFORD San JoseState

38.3

52-14

30   

ColoradoState NEW MEXICO

7.7

28-20

5 ½

PITTSBURGH Buffalo

43.1

49-6

30   

South Carolina(n) East Carolina

26.8

48-21

20 ½

CALIFORNIA FresnoState

20.3

37-17

10   

NORTHERN ILLINOIS Army

5.2

21-16

10   

TEXAS Rice

22.6

37-14

23 ½

Indiana(n) BallState

10.2

27-17

6 ½

OKLAHOMA Tulsa

32.2

52-20

24 ½

NEW MEXICOSTATE OhioU

2.5

24-21

-7   

BoiseState(n) Georgia

5.1

28-23

3   

Oregon(n) L s u

4.0

21-17

3   

SOUTHERN MISS LouisianaTech

6.5

27-20

13   

HAWAII Colorado

1.1

28-27

7   

PURDUE MiddleTennessee

32.9

39-6

17 ½

ILLINOIS ArkansasState

30.5

41-10

21   

FLORIDASTATE Louisiana-Monroe

45.0

59-14

29 ½

CLEMSON Troy

32.5

45-12

15 ½

FLORIDA FloridaAtlantic

51.1

51-0

35   

OKLAHOMASTATE U ofLouisiana

52.1

62-10

36 ½

   

 

 

 

Sunday, September 4  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

WEST VIRGINIA Marshall

23.3

35-12

21   

TEXASA&M S m u

31.6

49-17

15 ½

   

 

 

 

Monday, September 5  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Miami(Fl) MARYLAND

1.2

25-24

5 ½

 

 

Coming Tomorrow: Our Free Selections For Week One.  Remember, you get what you paid for!!!

August 25, 2008

PiRate Ratings For College Football–Week of August 30, 2008

The PiRates Are Ready To Board Your Ship For 2008-2009

 

Ahoy there!  The PiRates have returned for another season of mayhem and mischief.  They are ready to pillage those nasty ships from Las Vegas and reap the booty to be had.  Okay, if they are like last year, they may wish to become greeters at the local Wal-Mart, but let’s hope that 2007 was a great aberration. 

 

As you may have read in a post last week, there has been a major change this year.  This blog will concentrate on Pro Football while providing the bare bones in college football.  I just don’t follow college football with a passion any more.  The BCS has turned me off the game.  They need to either go to playoffs like all other sports, or return to the old ways and not let something or someone determine (and almost always getting it wrong) which two teams will have the chance to become the champion.  If you talk to the top experts in the business, and you know who they live in Nevada, they would tell you that Southern Cal and West Virginia were the top two teams last year.  Both of them would have been favored against either LSU or Ohio State.  The criteria that the BCS uses are no more accurate than your average stock screening program. 

 

What I plan to do this year is provide an abbreviated college preview on Wednesday or Thursday and an in-depth NFL preview on Friday.  Once again, I will also carry a pro football computer simulation of NFL teams from yesteryear, and that will run on Mondays once the NFL season begins.

 

I have the preview for the first week of the college season, as time restraints will make it impossible to post on Wednesday or Thursday.

 

Preseason PiRate Top 25

NCAA FBS

 

                 Team            Rating

Won

Lost

1

Ohio St.

128.4

11

2

2

Florida 

126.9

9

4

3

Georgia 

124.0

11

2

4

Missouri

122.9

12

2

5

S. Florida

120.4

9

4

6

Auburn

120.3

9

4

7

Clemson

119.0

9

4

7

Oklahoma

119.0

11

3

9

Oregon

117.7

9

4

10

Southern Cal

117.4

11

2

10

Kansas

117.4

12

1

12

W. Virginia

117.4

11

2

13

L S U

117.3

12

2

14

S. Carolina

115.7

6

6

15

Texas Tech

115.2

9

4

16

Tennessee

114.7

10

4

16

Arizona St.

114.7

10

3

18

Wisconsin

113.3

9

4

19

Va. Tech

111.6

11

3

20

Penn St.

111.0

9

4

21

Texas

110.5

10

3

22

B Y U

109.9

11

2

23

Alabama

109.5

7

6

24

California

109.2

7

6

25

Kentucky

109.1

8

5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Clemson

0-0

0-0

119.0

73

46

Florida State

0-0

0-0

108.5

65

44

Wake Forest

0-0

0-0

107.8

63

45

Maryland

0-0

0-0

106.9

68

39

Boston College

0-0

0-0

101.4

62

39

North Carolina St.

0-0

0-0

92.9

61

32

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Virginia Tech

0-0

0-0

111.6

71

41

North Carolina

0-0

0-0

105.6

68

38

Virginia 

0-0

0-0

99.2

61

38

Georgia Tech

0-0

0-0

97.5

62

36

Miami

0-0

0-0

96.3

58

38

Duke

0-0

0-0

95.7

62

34

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

South Florida

0-0

0-0

120.4

76

44

West Virginia

0-0

0-0

117.4

76

41

Connecticut

0-0

0-0

108.7

67

42

Rutgers

0-0

0-0

108.0

66

42

Cincinnati

0-0

0-0

107.3

64

43

Pittsburgh

0-0

0-0

107.0

63

44

Louisville

0-0

0-0

99.4

64

35

Syracuse

0-0

0-0

91.4

56

35

 

Big Ten

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ohio State

0-0

0-0

128.4

74

54

Wisconsin

0-0

0-0

113.3

71

42

Penn State

0-0

0-0

111.0

67

44

Michigan State

0-0

0-0

107.3

67

40

Illinois

0-0

0-0

106.9

67

40

Michigan

0-0

0-0

103.9

62

42

Purdue

0-0

0-0

101.7

65

37

Northwestern

0-0

0-0

98.2

65

33

Iowa

0-0

0-0

97.3

62

35

Indiana

0-0

0-0

97.2

63

34

Minnesota

0-0

0-0

94.4

62

32

 

Big 12

North Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Missouri

0-0

0-0

122.9

73

50

Kansas

0-0

0-0

117.4

69

48

Colorado

0-0

0-0

103.6

65

39

Kansas State

0-0

0-0

101.9

67

35

Nebraska

0-0

0-0

100.3

61

39

Iowa State

0-0

0-0

92.2

56

36

South Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Oklahoma

0-0

0-0

119.0

77

42

Texas Tech

0-0

0-0

115.2

75

40

Texas

0-0

0-0

110.5

71

40

Okla. State

0-0

0-0

105.6

66

40

Texas A&M

0-0

0-0

103.4

62

41

Baylor

0-0

0-0

90.9

58

33

 

Conference USA

East Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

East Carolina

0-0

0-0

103.8

65

39

Central Florida

0-0

0-0

97.6

58

40

Marshall

0-0

0-0

92.7

56

37

Memphis

0-0

0-0

87.3

58

29

Southern Miss.

0-0

0-0

86.8

57

30

U A B

0-0

0-0

82.7

49

34

West Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Tulsa

0-0

0-0

99.4

66

33

Houston

0-0

0-0

92.1

56

36

Rice

0-0

0-0

87.1

59

28

Tulane

0-0

0-0

84.4

56

28

U T E P

0-0

0-0

82.9

50

33

S M U

0-0

0-0

82.5

57

26

 

Independents

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

 

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Notre Dame

 

0-0

102.4

64

38

Navy

 

0-0

92.7

58

35

Army

 

0-0

77.2

49

28

 

Mid American Conference

East Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Temple

0-0

0-0

96.8

59

38

Bowling Green

0-0

0-0

96.3

63

33

Miami (O)

0-0

0-0

93.9

59

35

Buffalo

0-0

0-0

93.0

60

33

Kent State

0-0

0-0

89.0

56

33

Ohio U

0-0

0-0

85.5

53

33

Akron

0-0

0-0

83.9

57

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Ball State

0-0

0-0

102.5

67

36

Central Michigan

0-0

0-0

99.0

66

33

Western Michigan

0-0

0-0

97.5

61

37

Northern Illinois

0-0

0-0

91.7

58

34

Toledo

0-0

0-0

89.8

57

33

Eastern Michigan

0-0

0-0

87.1

54

33

 

Mountain West Conference

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

B Y U

0-0

0-0

109.9

70

40

Utah

0-0

0-0

107.5

65

43

T C U

0-0

0-0

106.0

63

43

Wyoming

0-0

0-0

93.8

59

35

New Mexico

0-0

0-0

93.3

58

35

U N L V

0-0

0-0

89.3

58

31

Air Force

0-0

0-0

89.0

54

35

Colorado State

0-0

0-0

86.3

55

31

San Diego State

0-0

0-0

86.2

52

34

 

Pac-10 Conference

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Oregon

0-0

0-0

117.7

70

48

Southern Cal

0-0

0-0

117.4

67

50

Arizona State

0-0

0-0

114.7

71

44

California

0-0

0-0

109.2

65

44

Arizona

0-0

0-0

106.7

69

38

Oregon State

0-0

0-0

106.2

68

38

U C L A

0-0

0-0

105.0

62

43

Washington

0-0

0-0

104.9

67

38

Stanford

0-0

0-0

102.7

62

41

Washington State

0-0

0-0

99.2

61

38

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Florida 

0-0

0-0

126.9

79

48

Georgia 

0-0

0-0

124.0

74

56

South Carolina

0-0

0-0

115.7

70

46

Tennessee

0-0

0-0

114.7

73

42

Kentucky

0-0

0-0

109.1

66

49

Vanderbilt

0-0

0-0

99.5

60

40

West Division

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Auburn

0-0

0-0

120.3

74

46

L S U

0-0

0-0

117.3

72

45

Alabama

0-0

0-0

109.5

66

44

Ole Miss

0-0

0-0

108.3

65

43

Mississippi State

0-0

0-0

108.0

62

46

Arkansas

0-0

0-0

102.7

68

35

 

Sunbelt Conference

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Florida Atlantic

0-0

0-0

99.0

66

33

Troy

0-0

0-0

97.4

61

36

Louisiana Monroe

0-0

0-0

89.8

56

34

*Western Kentucky 

0-0

0-0

85.5

54

32

Arkansas State

0-0

0-0

84.8

56

29

Louisiana Lafayette

0-0

0-0

84.2

56

28

Middle Tennessee

0-0

0-0

84.0

55

29

Florida International

0-0

0-0

79.4

50

29

North Texas

0-0

0-0

74.0

52

22

 

 

 

 

 

 

* Western Kentucky will become eligible in 2009

 

 

 

Their games will not count in the SBC Standings in 2008

 

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Off

Def

Fresno State

0-0

0-0

106.8

69

38

Boise State

0-0

0-0

103.4

65

38

Hawaii

0-0

0-0

92.8

57

36

Nevada

0-0

0-0

92.8

62

31

Louisiana Tech

0-0

0-0

88.9

56

33

San Jose State

0-0

0-0

87.5

55

33

Utah State

0-0

0-0

82.7

49

34

New Mexico State

0-0

0-0

82.3

51

31

Idaho

0-0

0-0

81.7

58

24

 

This Week’s Games

Home Team in Bold

(N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, August 28

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

Buffalo

U T E P

13

30-17

Vanderbilt

Miami-OH

3

24-21

Troy

Middle Tennessee

10

31-21

Wake Forest

Baylor

14

28-14

South Carolina

North Carolina St.

25

38-13

Oregon State

Stanford

1

27-26

 

 

 

 

Friday, August 29

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

Temple

Army

17

31-14

Rice

SMU

7

35-28

 

 

 

 

Saturday, August 30

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

Northwestern

Syracuse

10

31-21

Indiana

Western Kentucky

14

34-20

Virginia Tech

East Carolina

5

28-23

Pittsburgh

Bowling Green

14

31-17

Wisconsin

Akron

32

45-13

Florida

Hawaii

39

45-6

Texas

Florida Atlantic

15

41-26

Wyoming

Ohio U

12

28-16

Michigan

Utah

Pk

23-23 to OT

Southern Cal

Virginia

15

28-13

Oklahoma State

Washington State

4

28-24

Tulsa

U A B

13

30-17

T C U

New Mexico

10

27-17

Mississippi State

Louisiana Tech

16

26-10

Auburn

Louisiana Monroe

34

44-10

Minnesota

Northern Illinois

5

31-26

Ole Miss

Memphis

23

37-14

Nebraska

Western Michigan

6

27-21

Texas A&M

Arkansas State

22

35-13

Kansas

Florida International

42

42-0

Southern Miss.

Louisiana-Lafayette

6

30-24

Kansas State

North Texas

31

48-17

Boston College

Kent State

10

27-17

California

Michigan State

6

27-21

Clemson  (n-Atlanta)

Alabama

9

29-20

Missouri   (n-St. Louis)

Illinois

16

33-17

Arizona

Idaho

28

45-17

U N L V

Utah State

9

27-18

Oregon

Washington 

16

33-17

 

 

 

 

Sunday, August 31

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

Kentucky

Louisville

14

31-17

Colorado  (n-Denver)

Colorado State

18

34-16

 

 

 

 

Monday, September 1

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Pred. Spread

Approx. Score

Rutgers

Fresno State

4

31-27

Tennessee

U C L A

6

30-24

 

Mean Rating Predictions

The Mean Rating is my old rating from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  I brought it back last year as a supplement.  When the PiRate spread and the Mean Rating agree on the point spread choice from the Las Vegas Line and both ratings differ by more than 2½ points from the Vegas Line, then consider that game as a playable game against the spread.  

 

When the two ratings agree on the predicted winner of the game, and the Vegas Line is 1-10 points on that team as the favorite, then consider that game as playable on the Money Line.  These strategies work best against the Monday lines for Saturday games.

 

This Week’s Games–Mean Ratings

Home Team in Bold

(N) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, August 28

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Mean Prediction

Buffalo

U T E P

28-24

Vanderbilt

Miami-OH

21-16

Troy

Middle Tennessee

30-23

Wake Forest

Baylor

27-10

South Carolina

North Carolina St.

31-16

Oregon State

Stanford

31-20

 

 

 

 

Friday, August 29

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Mean Prediction

Temple

Army

24-23

Rice

SMU

37-31

 

 

 

 

Saturday, August 30

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Mean Prediction

Northwestern

Syracuse

31-20

Indiana

Western Kentucky

35-20

Virginia Tech

East Carolina

28-12

Pittsburgh

Bowling Green

31-17

Wisconsin

Akron

44-17

Florida

Hawaii

41-21

Texas

Florida Atlantic

42-21

Wyoming

Ohio U

24-17

Michigan

Utah

24-20

Southern Cal

Virginia

27-12

Oklahoma State

Washington State

27-24

Tulsa

U A B

34-17

T C U

New Mexico

20-17

Mississippi State

Louisiana Tech

24-12

Auburn

Louisiana Monroe

34-10

Minnesota

Northern Illinois

28-17

Ole Miss

Memphis

31-21

Nebraska

Western Michigan

28-16

Texas A&M

Arkansas State

35-14

Kansas

Florida International

42-0

Southern Miss.

Louisiana-Lafayette

33-17

Kansas State

North Texas

45-20

Boston College

Kent State

28-6

California

Michigan State

26-21

Clemson (n-Atlanta)

Alabama

27-20

Missouri   (n-St. Louis)

Illinois

28-16

Arizona

Idaho

45-17

U N L V

Utah State

27-20

Oregon

Washington 

35-19

 

 

 

 

Sunday, August 31

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Mean Prediction

Louisville

Kentucky

28-27

Colorado  (n-Denver)

Colorado State

30-20

 

 

 

 

Monday, September 1

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Mean Prediction

Rutgers

Fresno State

31-23

Tennessee

U C L A

28-27

 

Preview For Wisconsin-Akron

 

Vegas:       Wisconsin by 26½

PiRate:      Wisconsin by 32

Mean:        Wisconsin by 27

Strategy:   Neither Sides nor Moneyline apply to this game

 

The 2008 season finds Coach Bret Bielema’s Badgers loaded.  If it weren’t for the unbelievable mix of talent in Columbus, Ohio, I would tend to pick UW to win the Big Ten title.  The defense should be a little better than last season, while the offense may take a few games to gel.  However, once quarterback Allan Evridge shakes off the rust, he could actually be more explosive than departed star Tyler Donovan.

 

In game one, I am inclined to believe that the Badgers will start a little sluggish.  Akron is much weaker than they were during the Charlie Frye days, and the Zips are no threat to win this game.  It will allow UW to work out the kinks and get a win under their belt without worrying about an Appalachian State moment.

 

My personal prediction here is a 35-17 win for the Badgers.  Yes, I do disagree with my own ratings from time to time.

 

Preview for Vanderbilt-Miami of Ohio

 

Vegas:       Miami by 4

PiRate:      Vanderbilt by 3

Mean:        Vanderbilt by 5

Strategy:   Vanderbilt +3 and Vanderbilt +175 on the moneyline

 

This is a scary proposition.  I’ve witnessed Vanderbilt football games for more than four decades, and the Commodores have broken the hearts of their fans more than once (more like more than one hundred times) in that time span. 

 

Miami has a couple of famous traditions.  First, the school is known as the “Cradle of Coaches.”  I doubt there is another program that can equal the great group of leaders that came from Oxford, Ohio.  Here’s a sampling off the top of my head: Paul Brown, Woody Hayes, Bo Schembechler, Weeb Eewbank, Ara Parseghian, Bill Mallory, Dick Crum, Randy Walker, and Terry Hoeppner.

 

It’s the other tradition that worries me.  Miami has been known to upset their share of opponents.  They once beat Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in bowl games in three consecutive seasons.  They have won at Kentucky and at LSU.  When Northwestern won the Big 10 Championship and went to the Rose Bowl in the mid-90’s, their lone regular season loss was to Miami.

 

Now, take into consideration that this will be the first time an SEC opponent plays at Yager Stadium.  Also take into consideration that Vanderbilt is the number 12 team in the SEC and will be playing this game with an entirely new starting offensive line and with five new players in the defensive front seven.  They will be playing without their most potent weapon from last year in wideout Earl Bennett, and their best returning receiver, George Smith, will miss this game due to injury.  They lost their top running back from last year, and their starting back has never fully recovered from an ACL injury in 2006.

 

Vanderbilt steamrollered over Miami last year.  They simply ran the ball between the tackles, ala Ohio State in the Woody Hayes days.  Miami didn’t have the strength to stop the running attack even though they knew the Commodores were not going to throw the ball with an injured quarterback unable to pass.

 

Logic holds that Vandy can line up and play smash-mouth football and win this game in ugly fashion.  A few well-timed long play-action passes can be more valuable than throwing it 35 times in this game.

 

I think the Commodores will come from behind in the second half and win this game by wearing down the Redhawks in the trenches.  Here’s a little secret: Vanderbilt has possibly the best offensive line coach in college football.  Robbie Caldwell will have molded the new line players into a cohesive unit by the time this game begins, and the Commodores should find success running the ball, while quarterback Chris Nickson should have enough time to locate receivers to keep the defense honest.  This isn’t going to be a team that threatens to break the long streak of losing seasons, but this team should still be competitive.

 

My personal prediction is the same as the PiRate prediction.  Even should Miami pull off the win, four points are a lot to cover.  I like playing underdogs of more than a field goal when they have a good chance of winning outright, even when it’s the school with a tradition of breaking hearts.  Go with Vanderbilt at +4 and at +175 in the Money Line.

 

Other Playable Games According to the PiRates

 

Oregon State -155 vs. Stanford

Troy -260 vs. Middle Tennessee

Temple -270 vs. Army

Rice -3½ and -165 vs. SMU

Ole Miss -7½ and -310 vs. Memphis

Oregon -13½ vs. Washington

TCU -260 vs. New Mexico

Mississippi State -7½ and -350 vs. Louisiana Tech 

Washington State +7 vs. Oklahoma State

Missouri -8½ and -370 vs. Illinois

California -185 vs. Michigan State

Virginia +20 vs. Southern California

Utah State +9½ vs. UNLV and UNLV -500 vs. Utah State

Western Kentucky +20½ vs. Indiana (WKU’s first line ever!)

Florida Atlantic +24 vs. Texas

Kansas -36 vs. Florida International

Kentucky +3½ vs. Louisville

Rutgers -230 vs. Fresno State

Tennessee -290 vs. UCLA   

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