PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Charlotte	Eastern Kentucky	3.3
Vanderbilt	UAB	1.2
Utah Valley	Cincinnati	-0.2

PiRate Ratings Bracketology — Final Before Selection Show

Date	Final
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Alabama	Houston	Kansas	Purdue
2	Texas	Arizona	UCLA	Marquette
3	Baylor	Kansas St.	Gonzaga	Connecticut
4	Tennessee	Xavier	Indiana	Virginia
5	Iowa St.	San Diego St.	TCU	Duke
6	Miami (Fla)	Saint Mary’s	Texas A&M	Creighton
7	Kentucky	Missouri	Michigan St.	Northwestern
8	Maryland	Florida Atlantic	Arkansas	Memphis
9	Illinois	Iowa	West Virginia	Boise St.
10	Auburn	Penn St.	USC	Utah St.
11	Providence	N. Carolina St.	Mississippi St.	Rutgers	Pittsburgh	Arizona St.
12	Charleston	Oral Roberts	Drake	VCU
13	Kent St.	Iona	Louisiana	Furman
14	UC Santa Barbara	Kennesaw St.	Grand Canyon	Colgate
15	Princeton	Vermont	Montana St.	UNC Asheville
16	N. Kentucky	Texas A&M-CC	SE Missouri St.	Howard	Fairleigh Dickinson	Texas Southern

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Last 4 Byes: USC, Utah St., Providence, North Carolina St.

Last 4 In (DAYTON FIRST FOUR): Rutgers vs. Arizona St. & Mississippi St. vs. Pittsburgh

#16 First Four: SE Missouri St. vs. Texas Southern & Howard vs. Fairleigh Dickinson

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First Four Out (#1 NIT Seeds): Nevada, Oklahoma St., Clemson, Vanderbilt

Next 4 Out (#2 NIT Seeds): North Carolina, Wisconsin, Oregon, Michigan

PiRate Picks for August 27, 2022

It’s football time in America! Yes, as of this writing on Thursday morning, August 25, football that actually counts in the standings is just 48 hours away.

Every year on Thursdays, the PiRate Ratings submit our selections in a just for fun environment. We never wager real money on our selections, and we encourage you not to do so either. That said, from past experience, we know that at least three dozen of you do monitor our selections and unfortunately risk your mortgage money on what you see here. In the case of two syndicates, there are systems where our weekly ratings are used to help figure which games to play. Last year, we discovered that one of these syndicates includes a very famous person. We don’t have permission to divulge this person’s name, and we are not even 100% sure this person knows that we now know, but a mutual friend in Nevada let the news slip.

It was our hope to feature some guest handicappers this year, but apparently that isn’t working out. When we last tried this feature, a smart and successful female handicapper totally dusted everybody else with a big profit, and we believe she chased away a lot of the guys that didn’t want to be shown up by “a girl.”

The opening week of the college football season only gives us seven games between two FBS teams. There are additional games between FBS and FCS teams, but unless something totally jumps out at us, we will not include FCS teams in this weekly feature.

Something else is new here this year. In the past two years, we have received a lot of comments from you stating that it was impossible for an average Joe to replicate our selections, because we searched all the sports books for the best odds. Most of you that do wager have accounts with one or at most two books. So, we are only going to use one book this year. Because it is the largest and legal in the most states, we will use the odds from Fanduel. Let us make this clear: we have zero relationship with Fanduel and do not receive any financial benefit from them. We only chose to use them because they are now legal in 17 states with another soon to join.

This year, we also plan to deviate from our normal plan of attack that we have used in year’s past. In recent years, we almost exclusively played Money Line parlays where the odds were +120 or more. With an average odds of about +145 odds, winning just three parlays out of seven returned a profit, albeit a small one of 3.5%.

This season, we plan to issue more straight sides and totals selections. We will most likely play no teasers, even though in the past, we did quite well with them. But, that required playing multiple books. One other thing we will not do this year, even though it has probably been our most reliable method in the 20+ year history of this site, is to play both sides or middling. This is an arbitrage gamble that requires playing one side immediately upon the publication of the opening line with belief that the line will move enough to allow you to take the exact opposite side with another selection. Say that the line between State and Tech opens at State by 9.5. Then, by Thursday morning the line has moved to State by 11.5. If you wagered on Sunday night taking State and giving the 9.5 points and then on Thursday, you took Tech and the 11.5 points, you would be guaranteed to win at least one of those selections. But if the final outcome of the game found State winning by 10 or 11 points, something that happens in about 1/6 of all college football games, you win both wagers. Winning both wagers just 1 out of every 19 attempts returns a profit. Doing so requires us to release two of these features a week–one late Sunday night, and then another on Thursday. We did this when we charged a nominal fee for the picks, but this is 100% free and open to the public, and please believe us, it is worth exactly what you are paying for it.

That said, let’s get down to brass tacks and talk about the opening selections for the 2022-23 College Football Season. As we mentioned, there are only seven games on the slate, and our belief in college football odds is that the margins are really accurate to start the season. The line originators and Sharp bettors have months to study the opening week, and they receive beneficial information to alter the spreads. We believe the value to start the season is on the totals, namely because the non-sharps bet a lot of money and frequently alter the number just enough to make it in the favor of the contrarian view.

Thus, we have isolated on three games where we believe we have the advantage playing the totals, and here they are:

#1: Connecticut and Utah State — UNDER 59 1/2

Jim Mora, Jr., takes over at UConn in what is a total rebuild from scratch. The Huskies were once strong enough to make the Fiesta Bowl, but now they have fallen to the point where they had to rally to beat Yale last year. We expect Mora to play a more conservative style of ball this year, trying to shorten games to hide the Huskies’ severe lack of depth. We also believe UConn’s defense will benefit from having to defend more plays, and there will be improvement in the defensive numbers.

Utah State is coming off a stellar year, but we expect the Aggies to be a tad weaker in 2022, at least at the beginning of the season until some young but talented players get some seasoning. The Aggies are favored by 28 1/2 points, and that almost entices one to risk it just on the number alone, but we don’t like playing either side on a spread this large. What we expects is that the game will be lower scoring than expected, something like 38-10 in favor of Utah State. That’s more than 10 points lower than the total for this game.

#2 New Mexico State and Nevada UNDER 49.5

What do you get when a team loses its head coach, its superstar quarterback, and a boatload of players in the Transfer Portal? Obviously, you get a much weaker team. What do you get when a program that has struggled to remain in FBS football brings in a quality head coach with an excellent staff? Well, in year one, it could be even worse than before for a month or two, but what happens when the new coach still believes you succeed in football by running the ball over and over until you can surprise the defense with a pass?

Nevada is basically starting over from scratch after former head coach Jay Norvell made what looks like a lateral move from Reno to Fort Collins. Superstar QB Carson Strong now plays (or sits) for the Philadelphia Eagles, and a lot of key players left Nevada when Norvell left. New coach Ken Wilson has never been a head coach before, and he brings in a staff that have more of a conservative, defense-first pedigree. The Air Raid offense gives way to a more pro-style with an emphasis on using tight ends rather than going 4 wide.

Former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill might still be in The Cities directing a Gophers’ program that might be the equal of rival Wisconsin in the West Division of the Big Ten. Epilepsy caused him to eventually give up the job, and after a couple years as an assistant, Kill resumes head coaching duties in Las Cruces. Kill hired longtime Division 2 head coach Tim Beck as his offensive coordinator. Beck’s offensive philosophy includes some of the “let your offense be your best defense” tendencies. He used to be a defensive assistant. Add to this that Kill likes to control the clock and keep defenses off the field, and the Aggies figure to give up less points in 2022 than they did in 2021.

There is a lot of smart money on New Mexico State’s side, and the margin has come down to 8 1/2 points. If it was 10 1/2, we might have wagered on the Aggies, but we believe that the inexperience on Nevada’s side in game one combined with the concentration on New Mexico State’s playing a more ball-controlled game, will lead to a final score in the neighborhood of Nevada 24 New Mexico State 16.

#3 Hawaii and Vanderbilt OVER 53 1/2

Here we go the other way with a total, and 53 1/2 is a high total to wager on the Over. Hawaii suffered more personnel losses by defections than Nevada, as former coach Todd Graham was accused of abusing his players. Graham was fired, and former superstar and local hero quarterback Timmy Chang was hired without any past head coaching experience. To make matters worse, Hawaii is having to play in a makeshift stadium for the second consecutive season after Aloha Stadium was condemned and deemed not repairable. The Rainbows are playing on their campus soccer stadium with temporary bleachers, and no more than 9,300 fans can attend games. There is minimal home field advantage, even though opponents have to make two, three, four, and even five-hour time zone changes to play in Manoa.

This year’s Hawaii team will most likely return to the Run and Shoot offense used by the school when Chang played and used by new offensive coordinator Ian Shoemaker at Eastern Washington. Hawaii will have very little running success against even the weakest SEC defense, so expect the home team to pass the ball more than 50 times in this game. What it means is that total scrimmage plays might exceed 160 in this game.

Second year Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea is a defensive-minded coach after being the DC at Notre Dame, but he quickly discovered last year that Vanderbilt plays Matador Defense. Except, when the Commodores saw red, it was the opponent that charged through the 11 black and gold capes. Georgia scored 35 first quarter points in Nashville. By the end of the season, Lea had changed quarterbacks from strict and immobile dropback passer Ken Seals to dual threat Mike Wright. Wright was able to dodge a lot of the pass rush from the worst offensive line in the SEC in the last 10 seasons, and Vandy actually had some decent offensive games in November. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if true freshman A.J. Swann doesn’t see action in this game as well, and although Swann is a pro-style QB, he is much more mobile than former starter Seals.

The Commodores have no big stars in their receiver corps, but they have eight or nine decent receivers, including two tight ends that can force safeties to stay between the hashes, leaving cornerbacks on an island against the wideouts. Because the linebackers will have to prevent Wright from running on the numerous RPOs. Even though the VU offensive line is still the worst in the SEC, against the weak UH defensive line, Wright should have a field day, and Vandy should easily top 35 points in this game, possibly 40.

As weak as the Vandy offensive line is, the entire defense is not much better. The Commodores gave up 36 points per game last year, including giving up 21 to a Colorado State team that averaged just 23.7 points per game and 28 points to a 1-11 UConn team that averaged just 12 points per game against the rest of their FBS schedule and only scored 21 against Yale.

Combine a game that is likely to have 160 scrimmage plays with two weak defenses, and two underrated offenses, and the final score starts to look like 42-38 with either team capable of winning. Vanderbilt is favored by 8 1/2 points, and almost all of the notable computer ratings favor Hawaii by 3-10 points (our PiRate Ratings favor Vandy by about the same as the spread). Thus, we think 53 1/2 points could be passed in the 3rd quarter of this game.

PiRate Ratings College Football for August 27, 2022

This Week’s Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida Atlantic	Charlotte	4.9	5.8	5.9
Hawaii	Vanderbilt	-9.1	-8.8	-6.4
Illinois	Wyoming	22.0	20.0	19.1
Nebraska (n)	Northwestern	10.4	9.3	11.3
New Mexico St.	Nevada	-9.7	-9.5	-10.3
Utah St.	Connecticut	20.9	19.8	25.1
UTEP	North Texas	0.8	1.2	-0.3

FBS vs. FCS Games

FBS	FCS	PiRate
Western Kentucky	Austin Peay	24.6
UNLV	Idaho St.	18.5
Florida St.	Duquesne	34.2
North Carolina	Florida A&M	29.8

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Georgia	130.5
2	Alabama	129.1
3	Ohio St.	128.3
4	Michigan	123.0
5	Clemson	120.0
6	Oklahoma	119.1
7	NC State	118.1
8	Michigan St.	117.7
9	Wisconsin	117.6
10	Oklahoma St.	117.5
11	Notre Dame	116.8
12	Utah	116.6
13	Purdue	115.9
14	Arkansas	115.3
15	Tennessee	115.1
16	Pittsburgh	115.0
17	Iowa	114.7
18	Miami (Fla.)	114.7
19	Penn St.	114.6
20	Texas A&M	114.3
21	Mississippi St.	113.9
22	Minnesota	113.6
23	Baylor	113.5
24	Kentucky	112.7
25	L S U	112.5
26	Ole Miss	112.2
27	BYU	111.5
28	Cincinnati	111.5
29	Oregon	111.3
30	Florida St.	111.3
31	Auburn	111.2
32	Louisville	111.0
33	Kansas St.	110.3
34	Texas	110.2
35	Maryland	110.0
36	Nebraska	109.8
37	U C L A	109.1
38	South Carolina	109.1
39	Iowa St.	108.7
40	North Carolina	108.0
41	T C U	107.8
42	Oregon St.	107.2
43	Texas Tech	106.7
44	Florida	106.7
45	Boise St.	106.0
46	U S C	105.9
47	Houston	105.5
48	Wake Forest	105.4
49	Washington	104.9
50	Syracuse	104.8
51	Arizona St.	104.5
52	UCF	104.4
53	Missouri	103.7
54	Virginia	103.6
55	Fresno St.	103.5
56	West Virginia	103.3
57	Illinois	102.6
58	Stanford	102.2
59	SMU	102.0
60	Washington St.	101.5
61	Air Force	101.4
62	Boston College	101.2
63	Indiana	100.9
64	Georgia St.	100.1
65	Rutgers	100.1
66	East Carolina	99.8
67	Virginia Tech	99.7
68	Northwestern	99.5
69	Army	99.0
70	California	98.3
71	N. Illinois	98.2
72	Tulane	98.2
73	U A B	98.1
74	Appal. St.	97.8
75	San Diego St.	97.7
76	Colorado	97.6
77	Kansas	97.3
78	W. Kentucky	97.2
79	Memphis	97.2
80	Liberty	97.0
81	Louisiana	96.9
82	U T S A	96.5
83	Utah St.	96.0
84	Tulsa	95.5
85	USF	95.4
86	Georgia Tech	95.0
87	Central Mich.	95.0
88	Toledo	94.5
89	Arizona	94.1
90	Coastal Car.	94.0
91	Miami (Ohio)	93.5
92	Western Mich.	93.1
93	Navy	92.2
94	Marshall	92.1
95	Troy	91.2
96	Vanderbilt	90.9
97	J. Madison	89.5
98	Old Dominion	89.4
99	Colorado St.	89.2
100	North Texas	88.9
101	Eastern Mich.	88.5
102	Kent St.	88.4
103	Nevada	87.7
104	U N L V	87.6
105	San Jose St.	87.4
106	Bowling Green	87.1
107	U T E P	86.9
108	Ga. Southern	86.6
109	Middle Tennessee	86.5
110	Florida Atlantic	86.1
111	Ohio	85.9
112	South Alabama	85.8
113	Southern Miss.	85.3
114	Wyoming	85.3
115	Ball St.	85.1
116	Buffalo	84.5
117	Duke	84.1
118	Charlotte	83.1
119	UL-Monroe	82.1
120	Temple	81.1
121	Texas St.	81.0
122	Arkansas St.	80.8
123	Rice	80.7
124	Louisiana Tech	80.4
125	New Mexico	80.2
126	Hawaii	79.3
127	Akron	78.5
128	Connecticut	77.1
129	New Mexico St.	75.4
130	Massachusetts	74.7
131	Florida Int’l.	67.6

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	111.3	110.4	112.9	111.5
Houston	105.1	104.8	106.6	105.5
UCF	103.9	104.6	104.7	104.4
SMU	102.3	101.4	102.4	102.0
East Carolina	99.6	99.2	100.5	99.8
Tulane	98.7	97.8	98.0	98.2
Memphis	97.1	97.6	97.0	97.2
Tulsa	95.9	94.9	95.8	95.5
USF	96.3	94.8	95.2	95.4
Navy	93.0	92.2	91.4	92.2
Temple	81.0	83.5	78.7	81.1
AAC	98.6	98.3	98.5	98.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	119.8	119.6	120.6	120.0
NC State	118.4	117.4	118.6	118.1
Florida St.	111.8	111.1	111.0	111.3
Louisville	111.8	110.6	110.8	111.0
Wake Forest	105.9	105.2	105.2	105.4
Syracuse	105.9	104.3	104.2	104.8
Boston College	100.6	102.6	100.3	101.2
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Pittsburgh	116.0	114.7	114.3	115.0
Miami (Fla.)	115.2	113.8	115.0	114.7
North Carolina	108.1	108.3	107.6	108.0
Virginia	104.1	104.3	102.4	103.6
Virginia Tech	100.4	100.8	97.9	99.7
Georgia Tech	95.7	95.6	93.7	95.0
Duke	84.3	86.8	81.2	84.1
ACC	107.0	106.8	105.9	106.6
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	119.4	118.2	119.8	119.1
Oklahoma St.	118.3	116.4	117.7	117.5
Baylor	114.2	112.9	113.4	113.5
Kansas St.	111.2	109.8	110.0	110.3
Texas	111.2	110.0	109.5	110.2
Iowa St.	108.7	108.6	108.9	108.7
T C U	108.9	107.3	107.3	107.8
Texas Tech	107.1	105.6	107.5	106.7
West Virginia	103.8	103.6	102.5	103.3
Kansas	99.2	96.9	95.8	97.3
Big 12	110.2	108.9	109.2	109.5
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	128.7	126.7	129.6	128.3
Michigan	123.7	121.9	123.5	123.0
Michigan St.	119.0	117.4	116.8	117.7
Penn St.	115.1	114.6	114.1	114.6
Maryland	110.3	110.1	109.8	110.0
Indiana	102.1	101.5	99.1	100.9
Rutgers	101.4	100.5	98.3	100.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	118.1	117.4	117.1	117.6
Purdue	116.8	115.7	115.0	115.9
Iowa	115.9	114.4	113.9	114.7
Minnesota	113.7	113.1	114.1	113.6
Nebraska	110.2	110.2	109.1	109.8
Illinois	103.1	103.7	101.2	102.6
Northwestern	99.8	100.9	97.8	99.5
Big Ten	112.7	112.0	111.4	112.0
Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	97.4	97.6	99.2	98.1
W. Kentucky	96.5	96.1	99.1	97.2
U T S A	97.2	95.4	96.7	96.5
North Texas	88.7	87.9	90.0	88.9
U T E P	87.0	86.5	87.2	86.9
Middle Tennessee	85.7	86.8	86.9	86.5
Florida Atlantic	85.4	87.3	85.7	86.1
Charlotte	83.0	84.0	82.4	83.1
Rice	81.3	80.7	80.2	80.7
Louisiana Tech	80.3	82.0	78.8	80.4
Florida Int’l.	67.1	70.2	65.4	67.6
CUSA	86.3	86.8	86.5	86.5
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	117.5	115.5	117.4	116.8
BYU	112.2	110.2	112.2	111.5
Army	98.6	99.3	99.2	99.0
Liberty	95.4	97.5	98.0	97.0
Connecticut	77.6	79.1	74.6	77.1
New Mexico St.	74.9	77.2	74.1	75.4
Massachusetts	75.3	76.0	72.7	74.7
Independents	93.1	93.5	92.6	93.1
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	91.6	94.6	94.4	93.5
Kent St.	87.4	90.2	87.7	88.4
Bowling Green	87.8	86.5	86.9	87.1
Ohio	84.3	87.0	86.5	85.9
Buffalo	83.1	85.8	84.8	84.5
Akron	78.3	79.3	77.9	78.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	97.9	98.3	98.4	98.2
Central Mich.	93.1	95.4	96.4	95.0
Toledo	93.5	94.7	95.4	94.5
Western Mich.	92.2	93.5	93.6	93.1
Eastern Mich.	88.4	89.0	88.1	88.5
Ball St.	84.7	86.0	84.8	85.1
MAC	88.5	90.0	89.6	89.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	106.1	105.0	107.0	106.0
Air Force	101.0	100.9	102.4	101.4
Utah St.	95.5	95.9	96.7	96.0
Colorado St.	88.6	89.9	89.1	89.2
Wyoming	84.0	86.7	85.1	85.3
New Mexico	80.4	81.1	79.1	80.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	103.3	102.6	104.6	103.5
San Diego St.	97.5	97.5	97.9	97.7
Nevada	87.1	89.2	86.9	87.7
U N L V	88.5	86.0	88.1	87.6
San Jose St.	86.9	87.3	88.0	87.4
Hawaii	78.6	80.1	79.4	79.3
MWC	91.5	91.8	92.0	91.8
Pac-12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Utah	116.5	115.0	118.4	116.6
Oregon	111.7	111.4	110.9	111.3
U C L A	108.6	108.5	110.2	109.1
Oregon St.	107.2	106.6	107.8	107.2
U S C	105.4	106.2	106.2	105.9
Washington	104.2	105.0	105.5	104.9
Arizona St.	104.1	104.1	105.4	104.5
Stanford	103.8	101.0	101.8	102.2
Washington St.	101.0	101.6	101.8	101.5
California	97.7	98.1	99.1	98.3
Colorado	98.5	96.7	97.7	97.6
Arizona	94.1	94.1	94.0	94.1
Pac-12	104.4	104.0	104.9	104.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia	130.6	128.7	132.2	130.5
Tennessee	115.2	114.9	115.3	115.1
Kentucky	112.1	112.8	113.3	112.7
South Carolina	109.5	108.8	108.9	109.1
Florida	105.9	108.0	106.3	106.7
Missouri	104.0	104.1	103.0	103.7
Vanderbilt	91.1	92.3	89.3	90.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	129.0	127.7	130.6	129.1
Arkansas	115.9	113.9	116.1	115.3
Texas A&M	113.4	114.8	114.8	114.3
Mississippi St.	115.2	113.1	113.5	113.9
L S U	113.0	112.2	112.2	112.5
Ole Miss	113.4	111.4	111.8	112.2
Auburn	112.1	110.6	110.9	111.2
SEC	112.9	112.4	112.7	112.7
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia St.	99.3	98.5	102.6	100.1
Appal. St.	96.2	98.1	99.0	97.8
Coastal Car.	92.8	94.2	95.0	94.0
Marshall	91.4	92.8	92.1	92.1
J. Madison	87.2	89.1	92.1	89.5
Old Dominion	89.4	89.4	89.5	89.4
Ga. Southern	86.6	86.0	87.1	86.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana	95.9	96.3	98.5	96.9
Troy	90.7	90.9	92.0	91.2
South Alabama	85.3	85.6	86.5	85.8
Southern Miss.	85.1	85.6	85.2	85.3
UL-Monroe	82.2	82.7	81.5	82.1
Texas St.	80.4	81.3	81.4	81.0
Arkansas St.	80.1	81.7	80.6	80.8
Sun Belt	88.8	89.4	90.2	89.5

Conference Ratings

Rank	Conference	Rating
1	Southeastern	112.7
2	Big Ten	112.0
3	Big 12	109.5
4	Atlantic Coast	106.6
5	Pac-12	104.4
6	American Athletic	98.4
7	Independents	93.1
8	Mountain West	91.8
9	Sun Belt	89.5
10	Mid-American	89.4
11	Conference USA	86.5

The Process Behind Hiring A Football Coach

What you are about to read is a compilation of the coaching search-hiring process as told to me by multiple people in multiple states with multiple schools over the course of 20 years. I have pieced this information together to attempt to show you a behind-the-scenes look at how a college football coaching search takes place. This cannot be set in stone as the only way it is done, but this is a comprehensive story based on actual events to allow you to get a feel for how it works. I have created the names for the characters, all of whom are based on multiple real life sports personnel. No individual is totally represented here. In other words, if this story was about a great pitcher from yesteryear, one character might be partially based on Lefty Grove, Walter Johnson, Bob Feller, Spud Chandler, and Bobo Newsom, while another character might be partially based on Allie Reynolds, Whitey Ford, Carl Erskine, Hoyt Wilhelm, and Warren Spahn.
I have tried to present it in the fashion of the Dragnet TV series–just the facts, where the story you are about to read is based on true events, with the names changed to protect the writer and the insider friends that told him about these events.

This is the city, Springfield, USA. It’s a bit polluted and way overcrowded. It was Sunday, November 15. I was working the day watch with the Evening Star. My name is Saturday; I carry a press pass. Cue the intro music…..

Announcer: The story you are about to read is true, but based on several different incidents put together to make it something that would have brought an approving wink from Jack Webb.

The big university in town had just suffered a major defeat, and the fans and alumni were very unhappy. Promised donations were threatened; the big boosters demanded change, and the school, needing their seedling support, had to listen. Additionally, every sports talk show in Springfield spent large blocks of time telling the listening audience how terrible the football team at Big U had become since Coach Bob Fumbleton had come on board. Additionally, Athletic Director Terry Twoface, knew that if immediate improvement in the program in some form or another didn’t change the malaise, that he too would be out of work.

AD Twoface had thought long and hard about firing Coach Fumbleton the year before, but the prohibitive buyout was a major issue, and he decided that giving Fumbleton an extra year to turn things around would be the better option, especially when Coach Hugh Loveme was quickly gobbled up by Franklin State. Loveme was the only real needle-moving gem last year.

Twoface now has a year to begin doing the background work on potential candidates for the Big U football job should Coach Fumbleton suffer another losing season. He gives the coach a public vote of confidence, even though privately, he has begun his coaching search for the following year if Fumbleton doesn’t turn things around.

During the season, it becomes obvious that Fumbleton has taken the Big U program backwards a little more and has not turned the program in the right direction. Twoface has been doing his homework. He has monitored all the potential up and coming coaches that would definitely be interested in coming to Big U if the job was available.
During the year, Twoface puts out feelers to a handful of choice sports agents, the guys that represent multiple head and assistant coaches. The agents are an incredible source. The ones with dozens of clients know which ones are ready to tackle a job like Big U. They have to know this, because if they recommend a lemon to an AD, the AD might not contact him the next time there is a job opening at the school.

Super agent, Jordan Fasttalker, is the reigning king of college coaches in the Springfield area and surrounding countryside. He has a stable full of thoroughbreds ready to become college head coaches. Three of them are just exactly what Big U needs–they are the opposite of Fumbleton. Fumbleton was a defensive wizard as the DC at the former national champions plus three years as head coach at a Group of 5 team, where he went 27-9 before getting the Big U job.

In order, Agent Fasttalker believes that Coach Green, Coach Brown, and Coach Gold are his three best prospects for Big U. He has other clients that want the job, but he has a reputation at stake and cannot take a gamble with some of his less experienced clients that he feels aren’t ready for the Big U job. Fasttalker lets Twoface know that these are the three he should look at during the season. All three have recruiting experience in Springfield’s conference as well as the talent-rich states that send a lot of big-time prospects to teams in that league. All three come from the offensive side of the ball, as they were offensive coordinators at major programs before their current job. Coach Green is OC for a two-time conference champion from a P5 school, and his team pulled off that big upset of the number one team last year in that ABC nationally televised game. Coach Brown has the top offense in college football, and he’s in the process of going 10-2 at a G5 school that hasn’t had a 10-win season ever and only had four years with eight or more wins. Coach Gold was the head coach at a Power 5 school for four years, and he went 25-25 in a rebuild that wasn’t enough to satisfy that school. After he was fired, he became OC at a big program and restored their offensive prowess. He then took a job as an offensive coach in the NFL and did admirable work but realized he would rather be coaching in college and wants another chance to show that he can be a head coach.

Twoface monitors these three coaches all through September, October, and November. He also has a list of five or six additional coaches from two other agents, giving him a working list of eight or nine. He knows by October that he is going to have to make the coaching change, hoping he can save his own job in the process. As rumors begin to fly that Coach Fumbleton is going to lose his job, Twoface has to do his best doublespeak not to answer any questions or imply something one way or the other. This is actually a sign to the agents and coaches that Fumbleton is already two steps out the door and knows it.

At this point, other coaches not in the mix of the group being monitored contact their agents to tell them to shop their name with Big U. A couple of these candidates may be total surprises to Twoface when their agents drop feelers about them. Twoface isn’t interested in a dozen of the names that come to him, but when he sees an email come to his email address at 6:05 AM from Agent Daman asking him what he thought about Coach Charles Prince at Formerchampion Tech, he’s intrigued and immediately returns the email at 6:08 AM. Agent Daman knows this is super important. When he sends an email about one of his coach clients, most of the time, there is no reply at all. To get a reply three minutes later at this time of the morning means, get hold of Coach Prince before he can get into coaching staff meetings to tell him that he might be able to get him a major pay raise, either by staying at Formerchamp Tech or by getting a fresh start at Big U. Springfield is a much better city for a family, and Coach Prince’s family has felt like outsiders the entire time they’ve lived in Champville. The fans at Formerchamp have not been happy with Prince’s three consecutive 10-3 seasons since going 14-1 four years ago. They have raised expectations much too high for their school, which isn’t exactly the best place to build a program.

AD Twoface now has a list of 12-15 candidates as he takes his kids Trick or Treating on Halloween. As he walks his kids from door to door, he’s thinking in his head that he is going to have to cut the list to 7 or 8 candidates, but he might need some help. Officially, the job still belongs to Fumbleton, but the industry has already begun spinning the wheels, and it is obvious to those in the know that Fumbleton will be collecting a nice fat check to stay home next year.

After Big U loses by 5 touchdowns to a league rival on November 14, the school president contacts Twoface to tell him that he has received considerable communication from people that matter, the big donors, about the football job. Twoface, who has kept the president in the loop for the past year, knew this call would come after this game, because months ago, they determined that if a change was to be made, it would be made before the end of the football season. Because 7-10 other schools would soon be making coaching changes, Big U wanted to be a priority before some of the prospects on Twoface’s list took other jobs.

So, on Sunday, November 15, Twoface sent for Coach Fumbleton. Twoface had been patting Fumbleton on the back all year and kept telling him that there was time to turn things around, which is why he got another year. Now, twoface has a glum look on his face as Fumbleton enters his office and sinks into the chair that makes him look 6 inches smaller than Twoface, who’s plush chair sits on a platform that makes him out to be a lord.

Fumbleton knows immediately that he has reached his expiration date at Big U. Twoface tells Fumbleton that the President, the board, and the big donors are all in agreement that it is time the school moves in another direction. He assures Fumbleton that the school attorneys and his agent will work through all the details, and they will honor the terms of the previous contract. Later, the attorneys will offer the agent a deal where if the coach accepts a smaller buyout than what was in the contract that they will ignore the clause that cancels the buyout should the coach take any other job with another school or an NFL team. So, rather than pay the $14.5 million left on the contract over the next four years, if Coach Fumbleton will take $8.7 million over those four years, then he can keep it all and look for another job without forfeiting the buyout. Fumbleton’s agent will urge him to agree to this, or else he better not plan on coaching college football again.

The narrator at the Evening Star working the day watch is one of the best at his business. He has a nice expense account where the secretaries, janitor, interns, and other people inside the coaching offices receive nice little gifts from time to time. Coach Fumbleton’s secretary, Della Delight, got a free ticket center stage to the Dreamy Danny concert at the Springfield Convention Hall. She was so close to Dreamy Danny that his sweat struck her right cheek. She is indebted to our Evening Star crack reporter. Three minutes after Coach Fumbleton comes out to inform our lovely secretary that he has just been dismissed as head coach. He asks her to help interim head coach David Nochance out for the final two games, and then he tells her that he will give her any reference she needs for a new job if the next coach does not retain her. Della isn’t naive. She knew months ago that Fumbleton was walking dead at Big U. Her first action is to call our ace reporter at the Evening Star to give him the scoop. Before Fumbleton can get to his car to leave Big U, ace reporter breaks the story, and within four minutes, the news has gone viral.

That’s not the end of our ace reporter’s actions. All year, he has also been wining and dining Twoface’s secretary Sheila Shorthand. Sheila has to do all the correspondence for Twoface, because Twoface delegates that tedious work to her. Sheila knows what’s going on, and she can tell our ace reporter the names of all the potential candidates that Twoface has been considering for the last year; she’s even seen that email from Coach Prince’s agent. Because ace reporter doesn’t want to make it obvious that he’s gotten this inside information from Sheila, as it will cost Sheila her job, he throws in some ringers that are not on the list but maybe should be. In a couple of cases, some of the coaches that are ringers have asked him (or their agents have asked) to put their names out there to help them get a raise at their current school or to hope that they can get added late to the list.

The school planned to announce the Fumbleton firing later in the day, but ace reporter forced the issue by breaking the news. So, they have to issue a public statement earlier than they wanted to do so, but it’s no big deal–it happens every time!

Within 48 hours, every Tom, Dick, and Harry in the sports world, be it on radio, tv, or newspaper, or internet, gives their list of candidates. The fans respond, and this actually is monitored by officials at Big U. If Coach X is greatly out of favor, and the fans say that they won’t buy tickets or support the program, Coach X loses some rating points in the process. If there is a groundswell of support for any candidate or candidates that are already on the private list, this is noted. After all, these schools are in business to make money (and you thought it was about education). Football is a lucrative industry, and coaches are like their salesforce. If the customers dislike the salesforce, they don’t buy.

Now, the AD forms a blue-ribbon panel of important people to Big U. The school president has his own emissary on this blue-ribbon panel. They begin meeting Monday night to decide on how the process will go, and they agree that they need to have their man signed before December 7, because Fumbleton has a nice commitment list in the next recruiting class, and hiring a coach by the 7th gives him 10 days to convince the prospects to sign, as well as the time to rescind the offers to recruits he doesn’t want and offer some recruits from his previous school to switch to Big U. It’s a tough dog-eat-dog business, and that’s how it goes. Even 18 year old kids get their hopes crushed in the process.

On that first Monday night, they decide to narrow their list to five candidates and then hire the Bean Search Firm to do the leg work and perform background checks and get third-party opinions on each of the candidates. Before the panel narrows the list to five, they have to get a reassurance that each of the five will agree to interview for the job if they are on the list. This is just a verification, because their agents have already indicated that their clients’ want the Big U job.

On this Monday night, any last-second additions to this list of about a dozen prospects are made. It could be that Marty Moneybags happens to have a contact at Jefferson and Lincoln University, and they know that Coach Thomas Abraham has been wanting to get out of J & L because he feels like he has reached the limit of what he can do there. Abraham was never on the list of possibilities, because Twoface had no idea that he would have an interest. Then, he looks in his file and finds an email from Abraham’s agent, so he knows this is real.

The blue-ribbon panel meets on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, and on Wednesday night, a representative from Bean Search Firm is there. Exhaustive notes are taken, and by the time the panel adjourns on Wednesday night, they have narrowed the list that had grown to 14 down to nine. On Thursday morning, Twoface meets one on one with the Bean representative telling him all the parameters Big U wants to follow in this process. He tells the Bean guy that by the weekend, he will have five names for him to include, and Bean has him sign a contract with a flat fee for the search. In this case, the five-person debrief will cost Big U a quarter million dollars. Twoface doesn’t bat an eye and agrees to the price, as Bean is the penultimate search firm. The last three national champions were coached by candidates that Bean had helped schools sign.

On Saturday, Big U looks their worst of the season for their interim coach. A lot of the players have signed out and just go through the motions, most notably the linebacker that played like a matador all day. He won’t even suit up for the finale against Big U’s rival the following Saturday. Meanwhile, Twoface is busy in his office. He’s making phone calls to all the contacts he trusts. He talks to alums not on the panel. He talks with two of the panel members, basically the two that are competent to be in the loop. By Sunday morning, after a workout and jog, Twoface informs the school President, and the school’s top football benefactor the five names he is leaning toward. The President doesn’t know a flanker back from a cornerback, so he just wants to see that progress has been made. He is really competent at reading others, and he sees the approval in the eyes and voice of the big benefactor. When the big benefactor praises Twoface on this list, Twoface’s job is now secure for another couple years. He then contacts the Bean guy and gives him the list of five.

The media tries desperately at this time to get inside information, but at this point, they can get defense plans from the Pentagon easier than they can get this list of names. They can only guess, and of course, if they throw out enough names, they are going to get all five finalists from among a list of 20 candidates. The old-timers know how things work, and maybe one or two of the media members can do in his head what the panel has done. There are a very few clever media members that can replicate what the panel has done and maybe come up with three or four of the five finalists. The rest are just guessing. Some will claim to have inside information, but at this point, even Della doesn’t have this information, and if anything really leaked, it would be easy enough to discover the leaker.

Now, on some occasions, some Twoface might leak a name or two as trial balloons by having a surrogate claim to have inside information, which in this case, he does. Twoface wants to see what the reaction is when third-party Tommy gives this information to Football Rumors Online, and there are comments made by qualified football personnel (not fans). Maybe, some retired coach or NFL expert will make a comment that one of the coaches on that list is the best at preparing a QB for the NFL. Maybe a news outlet will report that another coach is on the verge of taking a different job. Anything that can help Twoface move one candidate ahead of the other is considered.

After three days of exhaustive research, the Bean company gives Twoface a preliminary report on their work. They begin recommending a pecking order based on the criteria that does not include coaching ability or recruiting competence. They tell Twoface who is ready to be an administrator and excellent manager of other coaches. They tell Twoface all the positive and negative things about each candidate.

Two days later, Bean has now had communications with all five finalists. They give this information to Twoface and make their recommendations one through five. Twoface now relays all this information to the panel, and now the President is in the room as well. He gives the go ahead to conduct interviews with the top four on the list, eliminating number five.

At this time, candidate number three has interviewed for a different school, and his agent informs Twoface that if he wants the coach, an offer needs to come in the next 48 hours. Because he’s third out of four on the list, Twoface cannot do this, so the list is now down to three.

Twoface and two others he values meet with each of the final three candidates in a secret location not in Springfield and not in the coachs’ current city of residence. A high quality hotel in a major city that doesn’t draw any connections to Twoface or the coach flying there has a private room where the employees have no clue who is meeting. On rare occasions, some bellhop or desk clerk will recognize that Coach so and so was seen at the hotel that afternoon, and he was not meeting with a woman if you know what I mean. He will contact his favored media member to try to become an important person and tell the guy that he saw Coach so and so meeting with somebody in the suite on the 11th floor.

At this point, the smart media person that got the scoop will look into his files and find that Coach so and so uses Michael Makemerich is his agent. He calls Makemerich later in the day to see if the story is true. Makemerich knows it is not wise to lie or try to deny it. So, he confirms that his client met with Big U earlier in the day and then asks him to do him a favor in return and parse the news to make it not hurt if the client is not the chosen candidate.

So, when you hear that a certain coach is talking with Big U, don’t take that as gospel that he is their selected choice. He’s just one of a host of candidates. If the media guy wants a long career where he gets other scoops, he will sit on this information. If that particular candidate gets the job, then the agent will contact him first to give him the best scoop of all–the accurate one.

After conducting the interviews, Twoface now quickly meets with the Panel, the school President, and now the legal team is involved as well, because a contract has to be drawn up on quick notice once the school offers the job to one of the candidates and then gets a positive reply. At this point, the school needs to have set parameters in place to begin as a negotiating midpoint between the legal team and the agent.

There might be another interview process with the top two choices, because they are 1A and 1B in the process. If not, there is a day where nothing happens, so that the candidates not in the mix at this point can officially pull out of the search to help them save face and not hurt them at their current position.

Sandwiched in this action is Big U’s final game against their heated rival. Big U plays a valiant effort and loses a close game to finish the season. Now, all attention turns to the new reality that is to come.

Usually by this time, the media has figured it out. If there were five serious candidates, and four of them have pulled out, then the one that hasn’t pulled out is about to become the new coach. The only thing that can affect this is if the chosen candidate pulls out at the 11th hour. Then, the school has to backtrack and try to get one of the coaches that pulled out to push back in.

Most of the time, the coaches that get this far are serious about taking the job. There won’t be any surprises at this point. The panel meets one final time to come to 100% agreement that they have their choice. The President signs off on the choice, and then Twoface or the President makes the call to the agent that they want his candidate. In many instances, there is a three-way call to the agent and the candidate to officially offer him the job.

At this point, 99% of the time, the response is favorable, but nobody knows it outside of the participants in the phone call. Before it can be made official, the legal aspects of the job have to be hammered out, and the agent has to sign off on the entire contract as the coach’s representative. This can take 24-48 hours. This is when the news of the real candidate can be leaked, because it is hard to hide this final dead period between when the offer is made, and the contract is signed.

Now, it becomes that wonderful time of the year known as airplane flight monitoring. It has become as loved as watching the NFL Draft. Fans of the school know the twin-engine jet that the school uses to pick up its coaches and bring them to Springfield. They begin following the flight plans daily to see where that plane is headed. It might make 10 trips in the final fortnight. Three of those trips happen to coincidentally be to cities near where some of the coaches on the list live. None of these flights have a thing to do with the football coaching search. Maybe, eventually, somebody will notice that the plane makes a stop in Tinytown USA on the way back from Boca Raton and stops for two hours before returning to Springfield. Maybe one or two people will figure it out that the plane is carrying two additional passengers, namely a coach and his wife from the university 20 miles away from Tinytown Airport. They will go on their school’s media fansite forum and break the news that they think Coach so and so is on the flight. This guy will become the big man on the forum for correctly predicting the coach.

The media will get wind of the hire about 12-24 hours before the announcement is official. The school likes this, because it gives the media time to digest the news and make helpful commentary on the hire. It will also help recruits know who the school plans to hire, and it will create extra enthusiasm.

The school then makes the announcement that they have hired a coach, and that they will formally introduce Coach so and so at a press conference at 2:00 PM.

And in the end, it is a surprise to so many that Coach Charles Prince is the new savior. He didn’t even become known as a potential candidate until that bellhop saw him in the hotel. That one sports forum fan, the smart guy that should be doing something important instead of wasting his time on fan forums, was considered a kook when he correctly guessed the right coach. Now that he got it right, everybody on the forum takes credit for knowing it was going to be him all along.

Special Editorial–Vanderbilt Football Conundrum

American University, Boston University, Long Beach State University, The University of Denver, the University of Detroit, George Washington University, Marquette University, New York University, St. John’s University, Saint Joseph’s University, The University of San Francisco, Santa Clara University, Seton Hall University, and Xavier University are smaller colleges that at one time fielded intercollegiate football programs and then saw Pro Football support chip away just enough of their fan base to make football too expensive to continue to finance at the major college level.

The University of Chicago was once a member of what is now called the Big Ten Conference, and their star back Jay Berwanger won the first Heisman Trophy.  The Maroons won the Big Ten Conference (then called The Western Conference) seven times under legendary coach Amos Alonzo Stagg.

The University of Dayton was a division 1 football program into the mid 1970’s, and as late as the 1960’s, the Flyers were beating Louisville and Cincinnati.  They played a lot of teams from the Mid-American Conference and won a good share of those contests.  Dayton is in the Cincinnati market for those not geographically interested.

The University of Denver won three championships in the Skyline Conference, which is the league that sowed the seeds for today’s Mountain West Conference.  As late as their final season in college football, 1960, the Pioneers were beating Washington State and Colorado State.  DU once dominated programs like Brigham Young, Utah, New Mexico, and San Jose St.  When the Broncos were born in 1960, the Pioneers football program ended.

The University of Detroit played Big Ten and SEC opponents into the early 1960’s, and the Titans beat teams like Boston College, Cincinnati, Tulsa, and Oklahoma State in the 1950’s.  Support for UD football waned as the Detroit Lions’ support increased.

Duquesne University played teams like Alabama, Florida, Clemson, North Carolina, and Mississippi State into the 1950s.  The Dukes finished in the top 10 in 1939, having beaten former number one Pittsburgh in a battle of the Steel City.

George Washington was a member of the Southern Conference when that league was still Division 1 and included teams like West Virginia.  The Colonials went to the Sun Bowl, beating home town favorite Texas Western (UTEP) 13-0.  GWU played SEC teams into the 1960s and competed in some of those games.

In the late 1950’s, Marquette’s schedule was more difficult then than most FBS teams today.  The Golden Eagles, then known as the Warriors, played teams like Oklahoma State, Michigan, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Boston College, TCU, Arizona State, and Penn State.  MU actually went to the Cotton Bowl in the mid 1930’s.

Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara, and San Francisco all played Division 1 football into the early 1950’s.  SMC was strong enough to play a bowl-bound Georgia team to a tie in 1950.  The Gaels also beat Oregon that year.  Santa Clara went to the Orange Bowl in 1950 and beat a Bear Bryant-coached Kentucky team that had the great Babe Parilli at quarterback.  They had recent wins over Oklahoma and Stanford prior to beating Kentucky.  San Francisco had one of the greatest players of all time in Ollie Matson, who enjoyed a lengthy pro career with four NFL teams.  USF was 9-0 in 1951, their final year playing football.

All of these programs were once major college teams.  Most of these schools are private and small.  Another thing all of these schools have in common is they are located in cities where pro football eventually became the dominant sport in town, and these small, private schools lost too much of their support to sustain their programs.  

The Washington Redskins were in Boston before moving to the nation’s capital.  After they arrived, American University  and George Washington University lost a lot of their support, as fans chose Sammy Baugh over the old college try.

The University of Chicago lost most of its support when the Chicago Bears became the Monsters of the Midway and began winning big in the NFL.

The University of Detroit stopped getting support when Bobby Layne made the Detroit Lions the hot ticket in the Motor City.  Duquesne stopped getting crowds when the Steelers took over the market, and even though the Steelers were not good until 1972, DU couldn’t compete with the much larger University of Pittsburgh in town.

Marquette lost too much support when Vince Lombardi became head coach of the Green Bay Packers.  Back then, Green Bay played half of their home games in Milwaukee’s County Stadium.

The San Francisco 49ers were part of the upstart All-American Football Conference.  When the Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Colts, and 49ers merged into the NFL in 1950, it marked the death knell for the smaller private college football programs in the Bay Area.  California and Stanford survived but lost a lot of fans, but Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara, and San Francisco could not survive.

Denver and Dayton, along with Xavier, were cities where the American Football League came to town and in a couple of years had become as popular as the NFL, maybe more popular to younger football fans like me, who chose the pass-happy AFL over the conservative NFL.

What am I getting at by this long introduction?  As someone that has lived in Nashville for most of my six decades, I have watched Vanderbilt University struggle to compete in college football for the last 60 years.  The Commodores have never been a factor in the SEC since I was born.  Vandy had been a dominant program in the South through the 1920’s, and as late as 1937, the black and gold came within minutes of winning the SEC and going to the Rose Bowl, only to lose 9-7 to Alabama in the final game.

In 1948, the great Grantland Rice, a Vanderbilt alum, wrote in his national column at the end of the year that Vanderbilt was the best team in the nation.  That Commodore squad caught fire at halftime of the Kentucky game.  Sporting a record of 0-2-1 and trailing Kentucky 7-6, then Coach Henry “Red” Sanders blew his top in the locker room at the half.  Vanderbilt came out in the second half and destroyed a good Kentucky team 26-7.  Vandy followed it up with seven consecutive wins, all of them blowout victories, to finish 8-2-1.  They were invited to the 1949 Orange Bowl to play Georgia, but the Bulldogs had the right to refuse Vandy as part of a contractual agreement with the SEC Champions being allowed to choose their Orange Bowl opponent.  Georgia voted to play a much weaker Texas team, and the joke was on the Bulldogs, as Texas didn’t take kindly to being considered fodder.  The Longhorns hooked the Bulldogs.

In the 1950’s, under Coach Art Guepe, Vanderbilt completed a 5-year string where their worst record was 5-5.  Included in that run, the 1955 team went 8-3 with a Gator Bowl win over Auburn.  The 1955 to 1959 record was a combined 28-16-6.  Their last game of the 1950’s was a 14-0 win over Tennessee in Knoxville that kept the Vols out of a bowl.

Something happened in 1960 that forever changed Vanderbilt’s chances to compete in the SEC.  Beginning in 1960, and becoming more liberalized for the next four seasons, the NCAA changed the rules on substitution.  Through the 1950’s, college football was one platoon football.  In other words, a team’s starting eleven on offense was also its starting eleven on defense.  Centers became linebackers. Halfbacks became defensive halfbacks.  Often, a team’s quarterback was its free safety and basically defensive quarterback.  The change in rules started with one that allowed teams to remove their quarterback from having to play on defense.  By 1964, football was 100% two platoon.  Nobody had to start on both sides of the ball any more.  Teams could basically substitute at will on every play.

At the same time, another rule changed the game.  With one platoon football, coaches could not send a player into the game with the play call decided by coaches.  They could not use signals to try to relay a play call, as this resulted in a 15-yard penalty.  Thus, quarterbacks had to be their own offensive coordinators while their team had the ball and defensive coordinators when their team was on defense.,   

Under the one platoon rule, a team with 15 to 20 good players and a smart quarterback, like Don Orr, who could be a coach on the field could compete and even thrive.  By the 1960’s, to compete in major conferences like the SEC, a team needed 40 to 50 really good players, because teams with just 10-15 good players would be worn down by multiple substitutions.  This allowed players to beef up by 50 to 100 pounds, because they no longer needed to play 60 minutes.  

Vanderbilt stopped competing at the end of 1959.  Starting in 1960, with all the rules changes, other SEC schools could dominate the Commodores in most years just by numbers alone.  Tennessee could send three sets of offensive and defensive linemen into a game and see very little reduction in talent.  Georgia could send three sets of running backs into games against a Vanderbilt defense that did not have the depth to counter the move.  Thus, in many games over the next 25 years, Vandy could keep games close for a half and even into the third quarter, before they wore down and lost.

In the 1977 season, Vanderbilt led number one Oklahoma into the fourth quarter in Norman.  They were in a tossup game with Alabama.  They led LSU, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Kentucky for large parts of the games before falling apart in the second half.  They lost all of those games and finished 2-9.

Brief interludes allowed Vanderbilt to post a couple of winning seasons overall.  Thanks to playing five “out of conference” games and just six conference games, the Commodores were able to go 5-0 outside of the SEC in both 1974 and 1975 and enjoy winning seasons.  The 1975 team went 7-4 but was outscored by almost two to one overall and more than three to one in conference games.  Only in 1982 did Vandy compete for the SEC championship.  

Under the genius of offensive coordinator Watson Brown, the Commodores became the first SEC team in over a dozen years to pass the ball more than they ran the ball.  Vandy threw the ball 40 to 50 times a game, and other teams were not ready with planned pass defense, as most defenses were still trying to stop the veer and wishbone offenses.  A fourth quarter collapse against number one Georgia led to the Bulldogs coming back to win.  Had Vandy hung on to win that game, they would have been SEC Champions and would have gone to the Sugar Bowl rather than the Hall of Fame Bowl in Birmingham.

After 1982, Vanderbilt did not post a winning season until they went 7-6 in 2008.  They have only enjoyed one other winning record in conference play, in 2012.  With the 2019 season concluding in two weeks for this year’s Commodores, and with a last place finish in the SEC East already assured, let’s look at some facts from the last 60 seasons of college football in Vandyville.

In 60 years:

Vanderbilt has finished with two winning records in the SEC, and they have finished in the top 5 of the league once.

Vanderbilt has finished in last place 32 out of 60 years and in second to last place another 18, meaning in 83.3%  of the time, Vandy has finished in last place or second to last place in the SEC.

Vanderbilt has finished SEC play without a conference win 19 different times and with one conference win 22 times.  That’s 68.3% of the time that they finished with zero or one conference win.

I could go on and on and show you how many times Vanderbilt finished last in offense and in defense in conference play, and how they once lost 33 consecutive SEC games, and so on.

Since 1998, Vanderbilt has had to share Nashville with the Tennessee Titans.  The Titans won the AFC and came within a yard of winning the Super Bowl in February of 2000.  They followed that up with the best record in the NFL in 2000 and players like Eddie George, Steve McNair, Albert Haynesworth, Frank Wycheck, and others became as famous in Nashville as Joe Dimaggio, Mickey Mantle, Lou Gehrig, and Babe Ruth were in New York City.

Once the Titans owned the Nashville market, Vanderbilt football attendance fell off by large numbers.  Even in the days when Vanderbilt was a perennial last place team in the SEC, Vanderbilt Stadium was full or close to full with Vanderbilt fans.  During the 1980’s, Vanderbilt public address announcer Frank Crowell would yell through the microphone for the fans in the stands to “stand up and show your gold!”  The deafening roar was so loud that the SEC opponents began to complain to the SEC that Vanderbilt held an unfair advantage, and their players could not hear their quarterbacks’ signals.  As unfair as the sideline benches were at Vandy’s Memorial Gymnasium, watching other teams jump and lose five yards for illegal procedure over and over led to the league banning Crowell’s calling for 35,000+ Vandy fans to stand up and show their gold.

As Nashville has become America’s “It” city, and 100 people began moving to town every day, the city became a new melting pot in America.  What was once a nice metropolitan area of about a half million people morphed into a major metropolis of two million in very little time.  The newcomers that came to town brought their former allegiances with them, and in a typical Saturday, you can find more people watching Big Ten football games on TV in Middle Tennessee than going to Vanderbilt games.  On a typical Saturday around Noon, if you drive to establishments showing football, you will see many out of state license plates, especially those from Illinois, Michigan, and Texas.  

Vanderbilt Stadium only sells out now when the opposing team buys 35,000 or more tickets.  At the Georgia and LSU games this year, the visiting crowd was so loud that Vanderbilt had to use silent signals in their home stadium to avoid jumping on offense and losing five yards for illegal procedure.  

As Nashville continues to become the new Los Angeles, and the majority of the sports fans in Nashville turn more and more to professional sports and continue to fill sports bars to watch their Big Ten and Pac-12 games on Saturday, Vanderbilt Stadium will continue to see fewer and fewer local fans coming to cheer the black and gold.  Even though Vanderbilt’s stadium seats 40,000, and the next smallest stadium in the SEC seats more than 61,000, there are not enough living alumni in the Nashville area to fill up Vanderbilt Stadium.  Only about 24,000 Vandy alums live within 90 minutes of Dudley Field.  At every other SEC school, there are more local alums within 90 minutes of their much larger stadiums than there are seats.  In Nashville, there are more than 5,000 Auburn alums living in the area, and most of these 5,000 will be in a seat at Vanderbilt Stadium when the Tigers make their infrequent visits to Vandy.  Obviously, the University of Tennessee dwarfs Vanderbilt in alums in the Nashville area, but there are also Nashville area alumni clubs for schools like Alabama, Florida, and Kentucky that outnumber membership of the local Vanderbilt club.  Only a small minority of Vanderbilt alumni “waste time on sports,” according to one distinguished Vandy alum I know.

Malcolm Turner has given Derek Mason a vote of confidence and a guarantee that he will continue to serve as head football coach at Vanderbilt.  What few fans that are left, and this could be as few as a couple thousand, were mostly opposed to this move.  Local media in Nashville reacted like the citizens of Nashville might have reacted had Governor Isham G. Harris stated in 1861 that Tennessee would stay in the Union. 

Coach Mason is not the reason for Vanderbilt’s 60 year inconsequential existence in the SEC during the Autumn months.  There are layers and layers of reasons why the program has failed with small peaks and large valleys through the decades.  Mason was spot on when he spoke of the program moving in waves.  In actuality, as I told a friend of mine who then posted what I said on another website, Vanderbilt has been caught up in a six-decade Tsunami, and only briefly was the football team able to poke its head above water.

There are other reasons why Vanderbilt football stands to suffer in the next decade.  The school is becoming more select when choosing its student body.  At the present time, Vanderbilt admits just one out of every 12 applicants.  That is more select than half of the Ivy League schools.  However, I have heard from faculty members that the figure of 5% has been mentioned as a future acceptance rate of applicants.

Vanderbilt does not have a Physical Education major or anything close to this.  Any student-athlete enrolling in the school is going to study more hours a day than he gets to devote to football.  Even though there are a couple of programs that athletes have been funneled toward, these are not the proverbial “basket-weaving” courses that public universities have offered for years. 

In a typical year, the top 350 high school football recruits are 4-stars with the top 25 qualifying for 5-stars.  The top SEC programs typically sign 20 to 25 players that are rated as 4-stars or 5-stars.  The next tier of SEC programs typically sign 10-20 of these top recruits.  The rest of the league, not including Vanderbilt, signs around 5 to 10 of these elite athletes.  In most years, Vanderbilt does not sign even one.  Only 16, 4-star recruits have signed with Vanderbilt in the 21st Century, according to 247sports.com.  No 5-star player has ever signed with Vanderbilt, and the school’s historically top two recruits both transferred to other schools during their collegiate careers when they figured out that the academic load and the poor results on the field were greatly reducing their draft stock. 

This year, three Vanderbilt offensive skill players chose to remain in school for their final seasons, when they all would have been second day draft picks had they chosen to go pro, and they would have walked down Lower Broadway in Nashville to crowds of more than 200,000 football fans at the NFL Draft.  Keyshawn Vaughn, Jared Pinkney, and Kalija Lipscomb have all seen their draft status weakened.  If they had another chance, they all would have likely declared for the NFL Draft or if possible would have become immediately eligible transfers elsewhere like Jalen Hurts at Oklahoma.  All three could have chosen to finish their careers at a place like Clemson or Oregon, where a future legendary pro quarterback was leading the offense.  How many catches might Pinkney or Lipscomb made with Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert throwing them the ball?  Imagine Vaughn playing in the backfield at Washington State, where Mike Leach could use a 1,000-yard running back who can also catch 50 passes out of the backfield.

This next part is strictly my opinion, but as a former coach of junior high and senior high basketball programs, I have seen reasons for why Vanderbilt football has ridden the so-called waves that Coach Mason speaks of.  Rather than describe the varying degrees of lack of success sprinkled with little teases of success, I would instead refer to the generations of America.  I am no Gertrude Stein, so I don’t tend to agree with the naming of the generations from the GI Generation through today’s Generation Z youth.  I have seen changes that require more than the generational tags that are famous today.  For instance, the so-called Baby Boomers born between 1946 and 1955 are not the same as those like me born between 1956 and 1964.  I was just young enough to miss Vietnam, but just old enough to remember Jack Ruby shooting Lee Harvey Oswald on live television.  My philosophy of life differs from my first cousin born in 1954 who saw many friends burning draft cards and leaving the US for Canada to avoid the Draft, or who fought courageously and then came home to be treated like they were coaches that went 0-12 on the football field.

For competition purposes, I separate this current young generation into two sub-groups: “Everybody Gets A Trophy” and “Every Competition Must Be Won.”   There was a time when Generation Z children competing in sports played on teams that did not keep score or standings.  Every child was a winner and nobody was a loser, and everybody received a trophy.  As a former basketball coach with a winning percentage over 80% over the course of two decades, when this became the norm, I left coaching.  Teaching our youth to play to win while playing fair and playing with sportsmanship was important to me.  Competition is important with some limits.

In recent years, as I neared the start of my golden years, I have been volunteering for a local group of kids that need organized athletic activity.  This includes basketball, baseball, and other sports.  In addition after dark during the late Fall and Winter, these kids conclude their late afternoons indoors playing air hockey, ping pong, chess, and other games.

Enough of today’s kids have gone to the other extreme from the “Everybody Gets A Trophy Kids.”   These kids play like every event is as important as the gladiators of ancient Rome.  They play for blood, and if anybody gets in their way, there is heck to pay.  If these kids I mentor were to form a basketball team, without any encouragement from me, they would play with the intensity that Bob Knight’s Indiana teams played between 1973 and 1987.  Just last week, one of these kids, a young girl, lost in a game of around the world basketball shooting for the very first time in her life.  This child has the potential to be a basketball star in high school and could have a college basketball career if she continues to grow to the height of her mother.

When she lost to a very athletic boy a year older than her, I thought she was going to destroy the building and bring it down like Samson.  She blew her top and accused the boy of cheating, which he did not.  She tried to throw a punch at him, and this is a boy that she has grown up knowing for all of their lives, as they couldn’t be any closer if they were brother and sister.

The psychology of being wrong with giving every kid a trophy has moved to the other extreme where every child believes he or she is the best and expects to win all the time.  This can only be viewed in generalities, as the term “every child” really only means that the needle has moved from 60% trophy and 40% win all the time to 60% win all the time and 40% trophy.

That 20% swing has been murder on schools like Vanderbilt.  Whereas a couple dozen of the top recruits in America might have been interested in finding out more about playing football for one of the finest academic institutions in the world, because just playing would get them a trophy, and in the meantime, that great diploma would lead to riches outside of football, today, the top recruits want to play the minimum three years and head on to the NFL.  They want to win, win, win, and appear on national television week after week where they can in the near future sell their likeness for top dollar.  Going to a top university where they would have to study many nights past Midnight and then have to worry more about that exam coming up next week than the All-American defensive end coming at them on Saturday isn’t something that appeals to enough of the top recruits that there are any left for the Vanderbilt’s of the world once the Georgia’s of the world have signed up their allotments.

The next Vaughn, Pinkney, or Lipscomb will look elsewhere to attend college.  Why ruin your chance to play in the NFL, where the backup quarterback on top college teams can become starters in the NFL?  Vanderbilt will be lucky to recruit 15, 3-star players in 2021.

Look at the rest of the NCAA FBS teams that are academic first schools.  Northwestern, Rice, and Stanford are not enjoying great years either.  Duke is on a downward spiral.  When Vanderbilt was enjoying its brief peak several years back, Stanford was making regular appearances in New Year’s Day Bowl games.  Northwestern was winning the Big Ten, and even Rice was enjoying a 10-win season.   In the past, when Vanderbilt was suffering through 33 consecutive SEC losses, Northwestern was struggling with three total wins in six years.  Rice was bringing up the rear in the old Southwest Conference.  

Vanderbilt cannot compete in the SEC in football, and the academic reputation is priceless; allowing athletes that might struggle at the high school across the street from Vanderbilt (my alma mater–University School) to attend would just not be prudent.  

Coach Mason has done a credible job in six years keeping Vanderbilt in contention to go to a bowl and he has taken the Commodores to two bowl games.  In 60 years, Vandy has been to eight bowls.  Mason has defeated Tennessee three years in a row.  The last coach to beat the Vols three years in a row was Dan McGugin in the mid 1920’s.  No other Vanderbilt coach ever beat Tennessee three times in their tenure much less three times in succession.

My belief is that eventually, Vanderbilt will not be able to afford to finance a football program at the Power Five Conference level and maybe at the FBS level.  Even with the SEC annual paycheck, the program struggles to stay solvent.  When other conference rivals enjoy $100 million annual revenues, and they have profits from $25 to $75 million a year, Vanderbilt struggles to balance their athletic books.

Basketball requires three scholarships per year to field a team of 12 players.  Vanderbilt can find three basketball recruits per year and compete against other Division 1 programs.  Of course, Vanderbilt cannot discontinue their football program and play in the SEC in other sports.  The obvious solution is to either eliminate football and play Division 1 in other sports while searching for another conference; or drop to FCS football and join an FCS conference that does not allow scholarships, while playing Division 1 in all other sports; or as an extreme de-emphasize sports altogether and go to Division III in whatever sports they need to field.

Without a football program, the football stadium can be demolished, and the property can be put to a better use, one that just might help the university move into the one top 10 that really matters to the school–The US News and World Report Top Ten of American Colleges and Universities.

There is a perfect fit for Vanderbilt in the Southern Athletic Association.  Schools in the SAA include Centre, Sewanee, Rhodes, and Millsaps.  These schools also have about the same number of dedicated football fans as Vanderbilt.

 

The average Vanderbilt fan may counter that Tim Corbin has given the school the best baseball program in the nation.  Corbin can recruit #1 classes year after year just like John Calipari does in basketball.  Baseball is a different affair, as only 11.7 scholarships are offered and spread among 27 students.  SEC baseball teams lose money by six-figures per season.  The sport cannot finance the rest of the athletic program.

More importantly is the loud rumor coming from Baltimore.  The Orioles’ lease at Camden Yards expires after 2021.  The long-time owner, Peter Angelos, has passed the age of 90 and is no longer able to participate in the operation of the club.  His sons have been attempting to sell the team to a local ownership group, but none have offered a reasonable price to keep the Orioles in Baltimore and renew the lease at Camden Yards.  The City of Baltimore has seen considerable decay within a mile or so of the ballpark, and night games at Oriole Park have seen fewer and fewer fans risking coming to the games to see a 100-game loser.  The Dodgers left Brooklyn in 1957 partly because Flatbush was not that safe at night.

To fuel the rumor that the Orioles might consider relocating to Nashville for the 2022 season, John Angelos, the son operating the team, recently purchased a mansion in neighboring Williamson County near I-65.  There have been rumors coming from Baltimore since May that Nashville is definitely in play to become the new home of the Orioles in 2022 if no local baron or baroness comes forward to buy the team and keep it there.  

About that same time this news began to leak, a group of heavy hitters, including Tony LaRussa, Dave Stewart, former U.S. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, former Starbucks CEO and briefly Presidential candidate Howard Schultz, and others have created “Music City Baseball,” with a goal of bringing Major League Baseball to the Music City and to construct a retractable dome stadium capable of also hosting basketball’s Final Four, adjacent to the Titan’s Nissan Stadium.  Among others involved in Music City Baseball are Tim Corbin and Malcolm Turner.   MLB Commissioner Ron Manfred publicly stated at the 2018 All-Star Game that Nashville was one of the cities on a short list for a future Major League team, be it a relocated team or expansion team when the league expands to 32.  Manfred explicitly stated that solving the issue of the league’s teams that do not have stadium deals in the near future would take precedence over expansion.  At the time, he referred to the Oakland Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays, but now Baltimore can be added to that list. 

Oakland appeared to have its stadium issue finally solved, but recent developments have deep-sixed those plans, and the team does not have a plan in place for a new park.  The A’s could very well go with the Raiders to Las Vegas.  Tampa Bay is basically partially moving to Montreal and will play a good number of home games in Quebec.  This is a warning to the Tampa-St. Petersburg market, but the powers that be in West Florida are not listening.  The Rays will move to Montreal in the near future.

Manfred’s remaining short list cities after removing Vegas and Montreal are Portland, Nashville, and Charlotte.  If the Orioles move to Nashville, expansion teams can be placed in Portland and Charlotte, and the entire short-list mentioned by Manfred would get a team. The pieces fit in perfectly. 

If the Baltimore Orioles become the Nashville Orioles or Nashville Stars, Tim Corbin will no longer remain as head baseball coach at Vanderbilt.  He will be part of the management with the Major League team.  Malcolm Turner, recently the highly successful Commissioner of the NBA G-League, could easily slide into an upper management position or even become part of the Major League Baseball Front Office. 

It is time to move Vanderbilt’s Doomsday Clock to two minutes before Midnight.  The next five years may decide whether that clock strikes 12 or if Turner can perform miracles worthy of Sainthood and turn the clock back 60 years.

Sunday March Madness Update

Rhode Island won an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament by topping VCU in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament.  The Rams now must be moved into first round bye status, so now a new team must be lowered into the First Four in Dayton.

Our Gurus will not have time to send us those teams, so we will go with the lowest team that received a bye prior to URI being moved up.

Thus, Vanderbilt moves down to the First Four as an 11-seed to face USC and Wake Forest moves to a 12-seed to Kansas State in the other First Four game.

Selection Sunday Ayem–March 12, 2017

Like Xmas Day For A Basketball Junkie

5:30 PM Eastern DAYLIGHT Time cannot come quickly enough.  Today is the day fans of 68 teams get to open their March Madness presents.  Most of the teams that will be dancing know they are in, be it with an automatic bid or a for sure at-large bid.  The Bubble has shrunk to just a few teams, and our Bracketology Gurus believe they have the 68 teams this morning before any games are played today.  Only the seeding may be altered by today’s games, but they agree in 100% unison that the teams we will list are the 68 teams that will continue to pursue their National Championship dreams.

THE FINAL BUBBLE

California

Illinois St.

Iowa

Kansas St.

Rhode Island

Syracuse

USC

Vanderbilt

Wake Forest

Xavier

Room at the Inn for six of these 10 teams, so which six make it, and which 4 are number one seeds in the NIT?

The six we have in are (alphabetically): Kansas State, Rhode Island, USC, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, and Xavier.

The four that will need tissues to wipe their tears are: California, Illinois State, Iowa, and Syracuse

The one that the Gurus believe should be in over one that should be out is Illinois State rather than USC.  However, the Gurus are selecting based on how they predict the Selection Committee will select, and even through the rules state that teams are not chosen within a conference by conference basis, subconsciously the members will look and see that they cannot exclude both Cal and the Trojans.  USC’s win over SMU is the reason the men of Troy get in over the men of Berkeley.

 

There are six games left to be played, and the seed lines could change based on who wins, but the Committee does not change their final seedings within the last two hours, so the final scores of some of the games will be official after the final seeding has been done.  Thus, the AAC and Big Ten Championship Games will still be underway when the final seeds are completed.  Only the name of the Sun Belt Conference Champion will have to be added late, and the Committee can already put the first letter of that champion on the board–a “T” (Texas State or Troy).

 

Here is today’s schedule.

American Athletic Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	SMU	29-4	vs.	2	Cincinnati	29-4	3:15 PM	ESPN
Atlantic 10 Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	Rhode Island	23-9	vs.	2	VCU	26-7	12:30 PM	CBS
Big Ten Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
8	Michigan	23-11	vs.	2	Wisconsin	25-8	3:00 PM	CBS
Ivy League Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Princeton	22-6	vs.	3	Yale	18-10	12:00 PM	ESPN2
Southeastern Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
1	Kentucky	28-5	vs.	3	Arkansas	25-8	1:00 PM	ESPN
Sun Belt Conference Championship
Seed	Team	W-L	vs.	Seed	Team	W-L	Time	TV
4	Texas St.	20-12	vs.	6	Troy	21-14	2:00 PM	ESPN2
Selection Sunday
5:30 PM EDT on CBS
NCAA Tournament
First Four: March 14-15
Second Round: March 16-17
Third Round: March 18-19
Sweet 16: March 23-24
Elite Eight: March 25-26
Final Four: April 1
National Championship: April 3

The Bracketology Gurus Field of 68

1. Villanova, Gonzaga, Kansas, North Carolina
2. Duke, Arizona, Kentucky, Oregon
3. Baylor, Louisville, Florida St., UCLA
4. West Virginia, Butler, Notre Dame, Cincinnati
5. Florida, Iowa St., Virginia, Purdue
6. Wisconsin, SMU, Minnesota, Michigan
7. Creighton, Arkansas, Saint Mary’s, Wichita St.
8. Maryland, Miami (Fla.), VCU, Virginia Tech
9. Northwestern, Oklahoma St., Dayton, Seton Hall
10. Michigan St., South Carolina, Marquette, Providence
11. Middle Tennessee, Xavier, Vanderbilt, USC, Wake Forest
12. UNC-Wilmington, Nevada, Vermont, Rhode Island, Kansas St.
13. Bucknell, Princeton, Winthrop, East Tennessee St.
14. Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico St., Iona, Northern Kentucky
15. Texas Southern, Kent State, Jacksonville St., North Dakota
16. Texas St., UNC-Central, New Orleans, South Dakota St., UC-Davis, Mount St. Mary’s

Last Four Byes: Marquette, Providence, Vanderbilt, Xavier

Last Four In (Dayton Bound): USC vs. Wake Forest, Rhode Island vs. Kansas St.

First Four Out (#1 Seeds in NIT): California, Illinois St., Iowa, and Syracuse

 

Coming Next:  We go dark for 48 hours.  Tuesday morning, we will premier PiRate Bracketnomics for 2017 with a total primer on how we handle our bracket picking and outright winners of games for you that failed to heed our warnings and chose to wager your hard-earned dollars in Vegas or offshore.  FWIW, we have heard from a half-dozen of you that you have found something in our Blue Ratings that have made you handsome profits this year.  We hope that continues for you, but please do not rely on just our ratings to wager money with books in Vegas.  We don’t want the guilt trip when you cannot pay your April Mortgage or car payment.

In addition to Bracketnomics, we will also give you all the raw data to use for yourself.  We will have a spreadsheet of all 68 teams with their Four Factors, their PiRate Specific Ratings, and then follow that up with how the teams fit in our Final Four footprint.  We have backtested the data we use as far back as each statistic allows us to do, and we will include that in our preview.

Tell all your friends to check us out.  The Tuesday preview is our most visited entry of the year, even more than our Super Bowl and College Playoff National Championship football editions.

 

But remember our axiom: We are just a bunch of math nerds doing this for fun.  Please wager responsibly, or like us just wager a lunch with your friend.  Also, remember that you have a better chance of being abducted by aliens from space while being struck by lightning, as you hold the winning Power Ball and Mega Millions lottery tickets while getting a kiss from a supermodel (all at the same time) than you do of picking a perfect bracket.

Note: Special Congrats go to Renato Nunez on his impressive home run at Hohokam Park yesterday against the Rangers.

NCAA Tournament Preview–First Four Round

Here are the opening Red-White-Blue Ratings picks for the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. These four games will be played in Dayton on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings.

Check back Tuesday afternoon for our bracket picking process based on our PiRate Criteria posted Monday afternoon.

 

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Red	White	Blue
Vanderbilt	Wichita St.	-1	-1	-2
Florida Gulf Coast	Fairleigh Dickinson	6	6	8
Michigan	Tulsa	1	1	2
Southern	Holy Cross	2	5	4

 

 

All That’s Left: Room For Two At The Dance

Let me preface this extra entry this morning before proceeding.  I am not a member of the NCAA Selection Committee, obviously.  I do not have a secret source inside the room leaking information to me.

However, I am friends and acquaintances with more than one former member of the selection committee, and I do know a lot about how the process works.

Based on the learned knowledge, it is my belief that prior to the start of play on Saturday, March 16, there are 66 teams penciled into the bracket with room for two more from The Bubble.

Three teams are still alive that will not get an invitation if they fail to win their conference tournament.  These three are U Mass, Southern Mississippi, and Vanderbilt.  Additionally, it is our belief that Alabama needs to beat Florida today to be considered for one of the final two spots.  If these teams win their tournaments and receive automatic bids, somebody penciled in will be erased off the paper.

Along with the Crimson Tide, Tennessee and Kentucky are waiting and hoping from the SEC.  Don’t think for a second that politics doesn’t play a part in this process.  Kentucky does not belong in this tournament, as the Wildcats are no better than Arkansas since the loss of Nerlens Noel.  The Cats have lost all four games away from Rupp Arena by double digits since Noel went down.  This is the resume of an NIT team that if it gets three home games, could easily be headed to Madison Square Garden in a couple weeks.

Tennessee cannot be selected ahead of Alabama.  Their resume pales in comparison to the Tide, which beat them two out of three times, including the most important game yesterday.

Boise State and La Salle really should not be considered.  They have too many losses to “bad teams,” and they lost early in their conference tournaments.

The wildcard in all this is Akron.  Should Ohio top the Zips in the MAC Championship Game, Akron could very well steal one of the two remaining bids.  Ohio will not get in as an at-large, so this game is very important for bubble-watchers.

Middle Tennessee has a resume that looks like a for-sure at-large team, and with Ole Miss winning last night, the Blue Raiders look like the leading candidate for one of the two remaining invitations.  However, remember what I said about politics.  The Sun Belt Conference has sent two teams to the dance before, and even sent four many years ago when it was a stronger league, but Middle will be excluded if Akron loses to Ohio.  The Zips beat the Blue Raiders in the regular season.

I believe that Maryland punched its ticket last night with the upset of Duke.  I also believe that Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota are still in the Dance despite early exits from the Big Ten Tournament.  You can add Oklahoma and Iowa State  from the Big 12, and Colorado will still get in from the Pac-12, while Arizona State will be left out.

I have also included Wichita State from the Missouri Valley and St. Mary’s from the West Coast, but remember what I said about politics.  The Gaels are poison after picking up a truckload of NCAA violations.  While the punitive action does not commence until next season, the Selection Committee may decide to dole out its own punishment.