PiRate Picks—College Football for September 13-15, 2012
After 6-7 and 4-5 starts, we hope you have taken this advice and not used our college choices with your hard-earned income. You may have noticed that our Vintage Ratings have done quite well against the spread in the first two weeks, posting a 60%+ accuracy (49-32) in all games. That’s the rub; nobody can play 40 games a week. So, that information is useless to us.
We will continue with what we think we know and hope what we think is real. We will go with 11 selections this week—two straight sides, two money line parlays, and seven sweetheart teasers. To date, the teasers have been winners (62.5% on the 10-pointers).
1. Minnesota -2 ½ vs. Western Michigan
2. Indiana -2 ½ vs. Ball State
We rarely take short favorites and almost always do it only when they are at home against a team from a lesser conference. Minnesota and Indiana have recent reputations for being really lousy teams. Western Michigan is a bowl team for sure, while Ball State will struggle to win five or six games. We are going with the Big Ten schools at home because we feel that both would win 75% of the time on a neutral field against these opponents. The Gophers and Hoosiers may not have exceptional talent, and their MAC opponents may have better skilled position players. However, as their games move into the latter parts of the third quarters, the interior lines are going to wear down the smaller teams. IU and UM have depth in the lines, and by the fourth quarter, we believe Minny will be able to pound the ball down the field and Indy will be able to sting BSU with the short passing game. We see both Big Ten schools winning by 5-12 points.
3. Money Line Parlay @ +101
Purdue over Eastern Michigan
Ohio State over California
Alabama over Arkansas
Mississippi State over Troy
San Jose State over Colorado State
Texas A&M over S M U
4. Money Line Parlay @ -113
Virginia Tech over Pittsburgh
Fresno State over Colorado
Boise State over Miami (O)
T C U over Kansas
Central Florida over Florida International
5. 10-point Teaser
Rutgers +17 ½ vs. South Florida
Texas A&M – 2 ½ vs. SMU
Virginia Tech Pk vs. Pittsburgh
6. 10-point Teaser
Stanford +17 ½ vs. Southern Cal
Ohio State -6 ½ vs. California
Georgia Tech – ½ vs. Virginia
7. 10-point Teaser
Ohio U +3 ½ vs. Marshall
San Jose State -1 vs. Colorado State
U T E P -2 ½ vs. New Mexico State
8. 13-point Teaser
Navy +18 ½ vs. Penn State
Navy & Penn State UNDER 59
Michigan & Massachusetts OVER 44 ½
Connecticut +10 ½ vs. Maryland
9. 13-point Teaser
Southern California & Stanford OVER 43 ½
Stanford +17 ½ vs. Southern California
East Carolina & Southern Mississippi OVER 42
Texas +3 ½ vs. Ole Miss
10. 13-point Teaser
T C U -8 vs. Kansas
T C U & Kansas UNDER 72 ½
Minnesota +10 ½ vs. Western Michigan
Texas Tech -20 ½ vs. New Mexico
11. 13-point Teaser
Florida +16 vs. Tennessee
Notre Dame +19 vs. Michigan State
Indiana +10 ½ vs. Ball State
Fresno State -1 vs. Colorado
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PiRate Picks—NFL for September 13-16, 2012
Our NFL picks for week one were rather disappointing. Our 15 picks we released went a pathetic 6-9, and our contest picks finished 2-3 with a total loss of net loss of $11,800 in our competition bank account, bringing our funds down to $988,200. By the way, the rules for this contest are that each selection has to be based on $10,000 stakes. Our wins were worth $10,000 and $10,800 (winning a money line parlay at +108).
Once again, the PiRate Ratings themselves finished much better when picking every game against the spread. Our opening week finished 10-6. The Vintage Ratings did even better, going 9-5 (the other two rated games were the same as the Line).
It is too early to gauge whether the Vintage Ratings give us a real angle, but since both the College & Pro Vintage Ratings did so well, we will monitor that to see if it is a real trend.
This week, we do not really love any of the possible sides. They are too close to what we think the lines should be. However, we feel like there is going to be a continued semi-parity, so we find more value in the sweetheart teasers than normal. Let’s hope we aren’t seeing a mirage.
1. 10-point Teaser
Minnesota Pk vs. Indianapolis
New Orleans +7 ½ vs. Carolina
New Orleans & Carolina OVER 41
2. 10-point Teaser
Buffalo & Kansas City OVER 35
New York Jets +15 ½ vs. Pittsburgh
San Diego +4 vs. Tennessee
3. 13-point Teaser
Chicago +18 ½ vs. Green Bay
New York Giants +5 ½ vs. Tampa Bay
Baltimore +15 ½ vs. Philadelphia
Baltimore & Philadelphia UNDER 59 ½
4. 13-point Teaser
Miami +15 ½ vs. Oakland
Oakland +10 ½ vs. Miami
Miami & Oakland OVER 26
Miami & Oakland UNDER 52
5. 13-point Teaser
Cleveland & Cincinnati OVER 25 ½
Seattle +16 vs. Dallas
Seattle & Dallas OVER 28 ½
San Diego & Tennessee OVER 30
6. 13-point Teaser
St. Louis +16 vs. Washington
St. Louis & Washington UNDER 58 ½
San Francisco & Detroit UNDER 59
Denver +16 vs. Atlanta
7. Money Line Parlay @ -118
New York Giants over Tampa Bay
New England over Arizona
San Francisco over Detroit
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Here are our contest picks submitted Wednesday, so there are different odds than those above.
1. Chicago +7 vs. Green Bay $11,000 to win $10,000
2. 10-point Teaser $11,000 to win $10,000
New Orleans + 7 ½ vs. Carolina
Oakland & Miami OVER 29
Houston +3 vs. Jacksonville
3. 10-point Teaser $11,000 to win $10,000
N. Y. Jets +15 ½ vs. Pittsburgh
Dallas & Seattle OVER 31 ½
San Diego +4 vs. Tennessee
4. 13-point Teaser $12,000 to win $10,000
New England – ½ vs. Arizona
New Orleans & Carolina OVER 38
Baltimore +15 ½ vs. Philadelphia
Cleveland & Cincinnati OVER 25 ½
5. 13-point Teaser $12,000 to win $10,000
St. Louis +16 vs. Washington
Tennessee & San Diego OVER 30
San Francisco +6 vs. Detroit
Denver +16 vs. Atlanta
The Pi-Rate Ratings 
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