The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 13, 2012

PiRate Ratings College & NFL Picks For September 13-16, 2012

PiRate Picks—College Football for September 13-15, 2012

After 6-7 and 4-5 starts, we hope you have taken this advice and not used our college choices with your hard-earned income.  You may have noticed that our Vintage Ratings have done quite well against the spread in the first two weeks, posting a 60%+ accuracy (49-32) in all games.  That’s the rub; nobody can play 40 games a week.  So, that information is useless to us.


We will continue with what we think we know and hope what we think is real.  We will go with 11 selections this week—two straight sides, two money line parlays, and seven sweetheart teasers.  To date, the teasers have been winners (62.5% on the 10-pointers).


1. Minnesota -2 ½ vs. Western Michigan


2. Indiana -2 ½ vs. Ball State


We rarely take short favorites and almost always do it only when they are at home against a team from a lesser conference.  Minnesota and Indiana have recent reputations for being really lousy teams.  Western Michigan is a bowl team for sure, while Ball State will struggle to win five or six games.  We are going with the Big Ten schools at home because we feel that both would win 75% of the time on a neutral field against these opponents.  The Gophers and Hoosiers may not have exceptional talent, and their MAC opponents may have better skilled position players.  However, as their games move into the latter parts of the third quarters, the interior lines are going to wear down the smaller teams.  IU and UM have depth in the lines, and by the fourth quarter, we believe Minny will be able to pound the ball down the field and Indy will be able to sting BSU with the short passing game.  We see both Big Ten schools winning by 5-12 points.


3. Money Line Parlay @ +101

Purdue over Eastern Michigan

Ohio State over California

Alabama over Arkansas

Mississippi State over Troy

San Jose State over Colorado State

Texas A&M over S M U


4. Money Line Parlay @ -113

Virginia Tech over Pittsburgh

Fresno State over Colorado

Boise State over Miami (O)

T C U over Kansas

Central Florida over Florida International


5. 10-point Teaser

Rutgers +17 ½ vs. South Florida

Texas A&M – 2 ½ vs. SMU

Virginia Tech Pk vs. Pittsburgh


6. 10-point Teaser

Stanford +17 ½ vs. Southern Cal

Ohio State -6 ½ vs. California

Georgia Tech – ½ vs. Virginia


7. 10-point Teaser

Ohio U +3 ½ vs. Marshall

San Jose State -1 vs. Colorado State

U T E P -2 ½ vs. New Mexico State


8. 13-point Teaser

Navy +18 ½ vs. Penn State

Navy & Penn State UNDER 59

Michigan & Massachusetts OVER 44 ½

Connecticut +10 ½ vs. Maryland


9. 13-point Teaser

Southern California & Stanford OVER 43 ½

Stanford +17 ½ vs. Southern California

East Carolina & Southern Mississippi OVER 42

Texas +3 ½ vs. Ole Miss


10. 13-point Teaser

T C U -8 vs. Kansas

T C U & Kansas UNDER 72 ½

Minnesota +10 ½ vs. Western Michigan

Texas Tech -20 ½ vs. New Mexico


11. 13-point Teaser

Florida +16 vs. Tennessee

Notre Dame +19 vs. Michigan State

Indiana +10 ½ vs. Ball State

Fresno State -1 vs. Colorado



PiRate Picks—NFL for September 13-16, 2012

Our NFL picks for week one were rather disappointing.  Our 15 picks we released went a pathetic 6-9, and our contest picks finished 2-3 with a total loss of net loss of $11,800 in our competition bank account, bringing our funds down to $988,200.  By the way, the rules for this contest are that each selection has to be based on $10,000 stakes.  Our wins were worth $10,000 and $10,800 (winning a money line parlay at +108).


Once again, the PiRate Ratings themselves finished much better when picking every game against the spread.  Our opening week finished 10-6.  The Vintage Ratings did even better, going 9-5 (the other two rated games were the same as the Line).


It is too early to gauge whether the Vintage Ratings give us a real angle, but since both the College & Pro Vintage Ratings did so well, we will monitor that to see if it is a real trend.


This week, we do not really love any of the possible sides.  They are too close to what we think the lines should be.  However, we feel like there is going to be a continued semi-parity, so we find more value in the sweetheart teasers than normal.  Let’s hope we aren’t seeing a mirage.


1. 10-point Teaser

Minnesota Pk vs. Indianapolis

New Orleans +7 ½ vs. Carolina

New Orleans & Carolina OVER 41


2. 10-point Teaser

Buffalo & Kansas City OVER 35

New York Jets +15 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

San Diego +4 vs. Tennessee


3. 13-point Teaser

Chicago +18 ½ vs. Green Bay

New York Giants +5 ½ vs. Tampa Bay

Baltimore +15 ½ vs. Philadelphia

Baltimore & Philadelphia UNDER 59 ½


4. 13-point Teaser

Miami +15 ½ vs. Oakland

Oakland +10 ½ vs. Miami

Miami & Oakland OVER 26

Miami & Oakland UNDER 52


5. 13-point Teaser

Cleveland & Cincinnati OVER 25 ½

Seattle +16 vs. Dallas

Seattle & Dallas OVER 28 ½

San Diego & Tennessee OVER 30


6. 13-point Teaser

St. Louis +16 vs. Washington

St. Louis & Washington UNDER 58 ½

San Francisco & Detroit UNDER 59

Denver +16 vs. Atlanta


7. Money Line Parlay @ -118

New York Giants over Tampa Bay

New England over Arizona

San Francisco over Detroit



Here are our contest picks submitted Wednesday, so there are different odds than those above.


1. Chicago +7 vs. Green Bay $11,000 to win $10,000


2. 10-point Teaser $11,000 to win $10,000

New Orleans + 7 ½ vs. Carolina

Oakland & Miami OVER 29

Houston +3 vs. Jacksonville


3. 10-point Teaser $11,000 to win $10,000

N. Y. Jets +15 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

Dallas & Seattle OVER 31 ½

San Diego +4 vs. Tennessee


4. 13-point Teaser $12,000 to win $10,000

New England – ½ vs. Arizona

New Orleans & Carolina OVER 38

Baltimore +15 ½ vs. Philadelphia

Cleveland & Cincinnati OVER 25 ½


5. 13-point Teaser $12,000 to win $10,000

St. Louis +16 vs. Washington

Tennessee & San Diego OVER 30

San Francisco +6 vs. Detroit

Denver +16 vs. Atlanta



1 Comment

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