The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 26, 2019

PiRate Ratings Picks For November 28-December 2, 2019

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:08 am

We are putting out this feature a couple days early this week for the obvious reason that in the United States, Thursday is Thanksgiving Day (for those two to three thousand of you reading this from South America, Europe, Africa, and Asia).

We received a request to show you what our results have been in picking games this year.  At first, we felt like this is something that should not be published for two reasons.  First, this is a downright terrible year for our selections, and I am sure that if I took the hours of time needed to calculate pretend money exchange, and then I pretended that each game considered of a $100 base for the wager, that the result would be quite negative.

On the other hand, I have done a couple weeks of calculating, and actually, the results are positive, especially on the Davey19 experimental selections.  And, mostly for this reason, I didn’t want to publish the results, because it would contribute to some guy or gal out there all of a sudden reading this with the false idea that we are smart here on the PiRate ship.  I am an old softie.  I don’t want to imagine somebody reading this post, thinking that this is the best advice since Benjamin Graham wrote The Intelligent Investor, and then proceed to lose the money that would pay for Christmas, their house note, and their car note.

Please, please, please, do not wager real money from information you read on this site.  Does it not speak volumes that nobody here in PiRate Land has ever bet $1 on anything published here?  Actually, the only “betting” any of us have ever done has been made on the premise that contrarian value investing of blue chip stocks will always post positive returns in a 10-year period.  If you want to take any advice from her today, it’s that as early as possible in your lifetime, try to invest regularly in your future and do so by reading as much as you can about what has worked for small individual investors for 130 years.

That said, please take the following with a grain of wet salt.  Last week’s Davey19 selections went 7-0.  Wagering the $100 in imaginary dollars on every game, your return on $700 invested would have been $1,400 with a return on investment of 100%.  

We looked back at the week before, and the Davey19 picks went 4-2-1 for a return on investment of 28.6% (700 invested and 900 returned).

As for the regular PiRate Picks, since each game has a different potential return, we are not going to spend all the time to figure out each week’s return, especially since we don’t want you thinking that we have discovered the elixir that some of the Smarts in Nevada and in the Caribbean drank from.

Last week, if you count each wager as a $100 wager, we issued 5 selections for $500.  The return on the wins at hot odds would have been $637 for a profit of $137 or a return on investment of 27.4%.

Without going back a couple months, I know for sure that some of our weekly picks would have cost you several C-notes.  So, once again, these picks cost you nothing, and you should consider the value to be worth your expense.

Here are our picks for this week.

PiRate Picks

7-point

Teasers

14-10

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Iowa

Nebraska

12.5

Nebraska

Missouri

Arkansas

5

Missouri

Boise St.

Colorado St.

6.5

Boise St.

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Appalachian St.

Troy

6

Appy St.

Illinois

Northwestern

2.5

Illinois

Purdue

Indiana

0.5

Indiana

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Marshall

Florida Int’l.

Pk

Marshall

Charlotte

Old Dominion

1.5

Charlotte

West. Kentucky

Middle Tenn.

1.5

West. Kentucky

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

UTEP

Rice

0.5

Rice

Florida Atlantic

Southern Miss.

1.5

Fla. Atlantic

North Carolina

NC St.

1

North Carolina

 

 

10-point

Teasers

10-12

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Texas

Texas Tech

Pk

Texas

Ball St.

Miami (O)

13

Miami (O)

Toledo

Central Michigan

0.5

Central Mich.

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Memphis

Cincinnati

1

Memphis

Arkansas St.

South Alabama

3

Arkansas St.

Notre Dame

Stanford

6

Notre Dame

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

North Texas

UAB

10

UAB

Georgia Southern

Georgia St.

17.5

Georgia St.

UCLA

California

12.5

California

 

 

13-point

Teasers

10-13

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Northern Illinois

Western Michigan

4.5

Western Mich.

Miss. State

Ole Miss

16

Ole Miss

Virginia

Virginia Tech

10.5

Va. Tech

TCU

West Virginia

Pk

TCU

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Kentucky

Louisville

16

Louisville

Michigan

Ohio St.

4

Ohio St.

Liberty

N. Mexico St.

0.5

Liberty

Wisconsin

Minnesota

15.5

Minnesota

 

 

Money Line

Parlays

#1  3-Teams

@+227

Winner

Loser

UAB

North Texas

Western Ky.

Middle Tenn.

Texas

Texas Tech

 

 

#2 3-Teams

@+207

Winner

Loser

Virginia Tech

Virginia

Rice

UTEP

Utah St.

New Mexico

 

 

#3 4-Teams

@+211

Winner

Loser

North Carolina

NC St.

Washington

Washington St.

Illinois

Northwestern

Temple

Connecticut

 

 

NFL 7-point

Teaser

14-10

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Jacksonville

Tampa Bay

8.5

Tampa Bay

Cleveland

Pittsburgh

9

Pittsburgh

Kansas City

Oakland

3

Kansas City

 

 

NFL 10-point

Teaser

10-12

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Detroit

Chicago

7.5

Chicago

Buffalo

Dallas

3.5

Dallas

Carolina

Washington

17

Washington

 

 

NFL 13-point

Teaser

10-13

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Tennessee

Indianapolis

10.5

Indianapolis

Cincinnati

N.Y. Jets

9.5

N.Y. Jets

N.Y. Giants

Green Bay

7

Green Bay

Denver

LA Chargers

10.5

LA Chargers

 

 

Davey19

Experimental and Mechanical Picks

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Pick

Mississippi St.

Ole Miss

3

Ole Miss

Virginia Tech

Virginia

2.5

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest

Syracuse

3.5

Wake Forest

Air Force

Wyoming

10.5

Wyoming

Rice

UTEP

6.5

Rice

UAB

North Texas

Pk

UAB

UCLA

California

2.5

California

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

November 14, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 14-19, 2018

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:05 am

Call it a rebound week.  After a few weeks of mediocrity, our five Land Sharps went a combined 15-6 last week, and four of the five experts enjoyed highly profitable weeks.

Buckeye Michelle and Stewed Meat were both undefeated in their picks at 3-0 apiece.  Cal Gal Tiffany went 5-2, and Dean615 went 2-1.  Friday Dog 13, stuck with a lot of favorites and like so many in “No Fave November,” he finished 2-3.  The week left three of our five Sharps with double digit percentage returns on investment.  The best news is that with two weeks remaining in the regular season, all five of our experts have winning records.  Friends, that is an incredible feat.  To go an entire college football season with a winning record is more rare a feat than beating the S&P 500 returns for a decade.  Few ever do it, so when five out of five here have winning records, it is incredible.

Now, let’s hope this isn’t the kiss of death.  Here are our Land Sharp picks for this week.  All the Land Sharps were on the same page this week; each of the five selected five games each.

1.) Dean 615:  Season 26-18-2 59.1%  Return on Investment 13.5%

Baylor -2 vs. TCU

Nebraska +2.5 vs. Michigan St.

West Virginia -4.5 vs. Oklahoma St.

Purdue -4.5 vs. Wisconsin

Ole Miss +3 vs. Vanderbilt

 

2 tie) Cal Gal Tiffany: Season 34-24-0 58.6%  Return on Investment  13.1%

Tennessee +7 vs. Missouri

UCLA +3.5 vs. USC

Virginia +7 vs. Georgia Tech

Virginia Tech +5.5 vs. Miami (Fla.)

California +2.5 vs. Stanford

 

2 tie) Stewed Meat: Season 34-24-0 58.6%  Return on Investment  13.1%

North Texas -3.5 vs. Florida Atlantic

Colgate +11 vs. Army

UL-Monroe +8 vs. Arkansas St.

Wyoming -2 vs. Air Force

UTEP +7 vs. Western Kentucky

 

4.) Buckeye Michelle:  Season 26-20-1  56.5%  Return on Investment  8.5%

Buffalo +2.5 vs. Ohio

Miami (O) +7.5 vs. Northern Illinois

SMU +9 vs. Memphis

Indiana +28.5 vs. Michigan

Iowa St. +3 vs. Texas

 

5.) Friday Dog 13: Season 29-24-1  54.7%  Return on Investment  4.8%

Washington St. -9.5 vs. Arizona

Cincinnati +7.5 vs. Central Florida

Nevada -14.5 vs. San Jose St.

UTEP +7 vs. Western Kentucky

Arkansas +21.5 vs. Mississippi St.

 

The PiRate Ratings’ Goofy Parlays

We sure hope you heed our weekly warning to never wager real money on our just for fun selections.  We are not professionals at this, and even though one of the Land Sharps is a professional, Stewed never publishes the actual selections played for real, because Stewed is selfish about keeping the line where Stewed wants it to be.  She knows that if all of you reading this played the same selections, the line might move by a half-point.  This was said tongue-in-cheek, but in actuality, we know that a certain few of you reading this in the Caribbean, and in places like Reno, Las Vegas, and Tahoe, that you do look at our actual computer ratings before you make your weekly investment.

Just remember that we have never placed $1 on any of these goofy picks we publish.  It’s just for fun.  We are math nerds and have no relationship with any of the MIT and Cal Tech math geniuses that create advanced algorithmic equations to beat the spread.  Of course, all of those geniuses are looking up at the PiRate Ratings in both college and pro against the spread this season, as we are currently in first place at the Prediction Tracker against the College and the NFL Spread.  A wise man once said that a broken clock is accurate twice a day, and this season is one of those times for us.

Now, here are our goofy plays this week.  Have a good laugh but laugh all the way to the bank when you DON’T wager on these games.

COLLEGE
10-point Teaser 3-team Parlays @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Houston Tulane Pk Houston
Memphis SMU 19 SMU
Boise St. New Mexico 9.5 Boise St.
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Kentucky Middle Tennessee 6 Kentucky
TCU Baylor 8 Baylor
Wake Forest Pittsburgh 3 Pittsburgh
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Ohio St. Maryland 4 Ohio St.
Michigan St. Nebraska 8 Nebraska
Minnesota Northwestern 7.5 Northwestern
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Temple USF 4 Temple
Utah Colorado 17 Colorado
Notre Dame Syracuse 20.5 Syracuse
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Arkansas St. UL-Monroe 18 UL-Monroe
Missouri Tennessee 16 Tennessee
USC UCLA 13.5 UCLA
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Texas Tech Kansas St. 16 Kansas St.
Florida St. Boston College 8.5 Boston College
Georgia Tech Virginia 16.5 Virginia
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Michigan Indiana 38.5 Indiana
Air Force Wyoming 7.5 Wyoming
Nevada San Jose St. 4.5 Nevada
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Vanderbilt Ole Miss 13 Ole Miss
Stanford California 12.5 California
Western Kentucky UTEP 17 UTEP

 

Special Parlay using 5 Dimes
20-point Teaser 15 games @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Memphis SMU 29 SMU
Alabama The Citadel 32 Alabama
Kentucky Middle Tennessee 36 Middle Tenn.
TCU Baylor 18 Baylor
Michigan St. Nebraska 22.5 Nebraska
Northwestern Minnesota 22 Minnesota
Florida Idaho 20 Florida
Marshall UTSA 47 UTSA
Florida St. Boston College 18.5 Boston College
Georgia Tech Virginia 27 Virginia
Miami (Fla.) Virginia Tech 25.5 Virginia Tech
Air Force Wyoming 17.5 Wyoming
Vanderbilt Ole Miss 22.5 Ole Miss
Western Kentucky UTEP 27 UTEP
Arizona Washington St. 10.5 Washington St.

 

NFL
10-Point Teasers 3 Team Parlays @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Green Bay Seattle 7.5 Seattle
Tennessee Indianapolis 8 Indianapolis
Atlanta Dallas 13.5 Dallas
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tampa Bay N.Y. Giants 9 N.Y. Giants
Houston Washington 13 Washington
Jacksonville Pittsburgh 4 Pittsburgh
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Denver L.A. Chargers 3 L.A. Chargers
Philadelphia New Orleans 1 New Orleans
Minnesota Chicago 7.5 Chicago
Team Team Total Pick
Seattle Green Bay 59 Under
Atlanta Dallas 38 Over
N.Y. Giants Tampa Bay 42 Over

 

 

 

August 9, 2018

PiRate Ratings Ready To Rock and Roll for 2018

Hello Mates

After hours and hours of intensive study, the PiRate Ratings are ready to debut for the 2018 college and professional football season.  We have made some major tweaks to our ratings’ algorithms as more and more analytical data has become available, some of which has contradicted some of our prior beliefs.

The main change we have made this year is how we rate new starters that replaced graduating starters in the NCAA ranks and changes in personnel at the NFL level.  We had been giving too much weight to certain positions and not enough weight at others.  This is why we spent an extra 40-50 hours this season refining our personnel ratings for each starting position of all 130 FBS teams and the 32 NFL teams.

We will begin previewing the NCAA football conferences Friday, August 9, beginning with the lowest overall rated conference and adding a new conference each day, until we culminate with the highest rated league on Sunday, August 19.

We will then debut our point spreads for the first week of college games on Tuesday, August 21, as there are a handful of games on Saturday, August 25.  Then, on August 28, we will have our first full preview for the real first week of the college football season.

Our NFL ratings will debut after the final cuts have been made following the final preseason games, most likely on Monday, September 3.  We will not offer an NFL preview this year.  We have noticed that since the Colin Kaepernick affair began, that the numbers of you reading our NFL-themed presentations have declined by 50% or more, while the number of patrons reading the college ratings and forecasts have increased by almost 50%.  This is about the same as with TV ratings, as the NFL Hall of Fame Game experienced its lowest ratings in over 20 years, and season ticket sales are off at almost every stadium.

For those wondering about out money line and/or teaser selections, we are leaning toward going only with straight wagers this season.  Our 4-year winning streak with the money line picks ended last year, when we could only win 51% of the time, which counts as a loss against the vigorish.  The one thing in our favor, is that we our wagers are always imaginary.  We neither win nor lose no matter the outcome of the games.

We do know there are a number of you that follow this site because you have statistical data that gives you a decided edge in your professional wagering.  Please be advised that our algorithms have experienced major alterations this year, and our ratings are not going to be the same as prior years.

Additionally, we have ended our retrodictive ratings, which required us to keep two separate databases.  These were excellent ways to rank the teams in order, but we know most of you are looking for predictive ratings and not rankings.

Here’s to an exciting season!

September 13, 2012

PiRate Ratings College & NFL Picks For September 13-16, 2012

PiRate Picks—College Football for September 13-15, 2012

After 6-7 and 4-5 starts, we hope you have taken this advice and not used our college choices with your hard-earned income.  You may have noticed that our Vintage Ratings have done quite well against the spread in the first two weeks, posting a 60%+ accuracy (49-32) in all games.  That’s the rub; nobody can play 40 games a week.  So, that information is useless to us.

 

We will continue with what we think we know and hope what we think is real.  We will go with 11 selections this week—two straight sides, two money line parlays, and seven sweetheart teasers.  To date, the teasers have been winners (62.5% on the 10-pointers).

 

1. Minnesota -2 ½ vs. Western Michigan

 

2. Indiana -2 ½ vs. Ball State

 

We rarely take short favorites and almost always do it only when they are at home against a team from a lesser conference.  Minnesota and Indiana have recent reputations for being really lousy teams.  Western Michigan is a bowl team for sure, while Ball State will struggle to win five or six games.  We are going with the Big Ten schools at home because we feel that both would win 75% of the time on a neutral field against these opponents.  The Gophers and Hoosiers may not have exceptional talent, and their MAC opponents may have better skilled position players.  However, as their games move into the latter parts of the third quarters, the interior lines are going to wear down the smaller teams.  IU and UM have depth in the lines, and by the fourth quarter, we believe Minny will be able to pound the ball down the field and Indy will be able to sting BSU with the short passing game.  We see both Big Ten schools winning by 5-12 points.

 

3. Money Line Parlay @ +101

Purdue over Eastern Michigan

Ohio State over California

Alabama over Arkansas

Mississippi State over Troy

San Jose State over Colorado State

Texas A&M over S M U

 

4. Money Line Parlay @ -113

Virginia Tech over Pittsburgh

Fresno State over Colorado

Boise State over Miami (O)

T C U over Kansas

Central Florida over Florida International

 

5. 10-point Teaser

Rutgers +17 ½ vs. South Florida

Texas A&M – 2 ½ vs. SMU

Virginia Tech Pk vs. Pittsburgh

 

6. 10-point Teaser

Stanford +17 ½ vs. Southern Cal

Ohio State -6 ½ vs. California

Georgia Tech – ½ vs. Virginia

 

7. 10-point Teaser

Ohio U +3 ½ vs. Marshall

San Jose State -1 vs. Colorado State

U T E P -2 ½ vs. New Mexico State

 

8. 13-point Teaser

Navy +18 ½ vs. Penn State

Navy & Penn State UNDER 59

Michigan & Massachusetts OVER 44 ½

Connecticut +10 ½ vs. Maryland

 

9. 13-point Teaser

Southern California & Stanford OVER 43 ½

Stanford +17 ½ vs. Southern California

East Carolina & Southern Mississippi OVER 42

Texas +3 ½ vs. Ole Miss

 

10. 13-point Teaser

T C U -8 vs. Kansas

T C U & Kansas UNDER 72 ½

Minnesota +10 ½ vs. Western Michigan

Texas Tech -20 ½ vs. New Mexico

 

11. 13-point Teaser

Florida +16 vs. Tennessee

Notre Dame +19 vs. Michigan State

Indiana +10 ½ vs. Ball State

Fresno State -1 vs. Colorado

________________________________________________________________________

 

PiRate Picks—NFL for September 13-16, 2012

Our NFL picks for week one were rather disappointing.  Our 15 picks we released went a pathetic 6-9, and our contest picks finished 2-3 with a total loss of net loss of $11,800 in our competition bank account, bringing our funds down to $988,200.  By the way, the rules for this contest are that each selection has to be based on $10,000 stakes.  Our wins were worth $10,000 and $10,800 (winning a money line parlay at +108).

 

Once again, the PiRate Ratings themselves finished much better when picking every game against the spread.  Our opening week finished 10-6.  The Vintage Ratings did even better, going 9-5 (the other two rated games were the same as the Line).

 

It is too early to gauge whether the Vintage Ratings give us a real angle, but since both the College & Pro Vintage Ratings did so well, we will monitor that to see if it is a real trend.

 

This week, we do not really love any of the possible sides.  They are too close to what we think the lines should be.  However, we feel like there is going to be a continued semi-parity, so we find more value in the sweetheart teasers than normal.  Let’s hope we aren’t seeing a mirage.

 

1. 10-point Teaser

Minnesota Pk vs. Indianapolis

New Orleans +7 ½ vs. Carolina

New Orleans & Carolina OVER 41

 

2. 10-point Teaser

Buffalo & Kansas City OVER 35

New York Jets +15 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

San Diego +4 vs. Tennessee

 

3. 13-point Teaser

Chicago +18 ½ vs. Green Bay

New York Giants +5 ½ vs. Tampa Bay

Baltimore +15 ½ vs. Philadelphia

Baltimore & Philadelphia UNDER 59 ½

 

4. 13-point Teaser

Miami +15 ½ vs. Oakland

Oakland +10 ½ vs. Miami

Miami & Oakland OVER 26

Miami & Oakland UNDER 52

 

5. 13-point Teaser

Cleveland & Cincinnati OVER 25 ½

Seattle +16 vs. Dallas

Seattle & Dallas OVER 28 ½

San Diego & Tennessee OVER 30

 

6. 13-point Teaser

St. Louis +16 vs. Washington

St. Louis & Washington UNDER 58 ½

San Francisco & Detroit UNDER 59

Denver +16 vs. Atlanta

 

7. Money Line Parlay @ -118

New York Giants over Tampa Bay

New England over Arizona

San Francisco over Detroit

________________________________________________________________________

 

Here are our contest picks submitted Wednesday, so there are different odds than those above.

 

1. Chicago +7 vs. Green Bay $11,000 to win $10,000

 

2. 10-point Teaser $11,000 to win $10,000

New Orleans + 7 ½ vs. Carolina

Oakland & Miami OVER 29

Houston +3 vs. Jacksonville

 

3. 10-point Teaser $11,000 to win $10,000

N. Y. Jets +15 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

Dallas & Seattle OVER 31 ½

San Diego +4 vs. Tennessee

 

4. 13-point Teaser $12,000 to win $10,000

New England – ½ vs. Arizona

New Orleans & Carolina OVER 38

Baltimore +15 ½ vs. Philadelphia

Cleveland & Cincinnati OVER 25 ½

 

5. 13-point Teaser $12,000 to win $10,000

St. Louis +16 vs. Washington

Tennessee & San Diego OVER 30

San Francisco +6 vs. Detroit

Denver +16 vs. Atlanta

 

September 6, 2012

PiRate Ratings College Picks For Week 2: September 6-8, 2012

Welcome back to week two of the college football season where if you really want to, you can lay 64 ½ points and get Florida State over Savannah State at some books.  We don’t fool with FCS teams, mainly because it isn’t easy to find action on games like that, and we try to emulate reality here.  We want to try to beat the legitimate lines, even if our picks are just for fun.

 

Last week, we were mediocre and finished 6-7-0 with our college selections.  Our teasers finished 4-2-0 and our single $-line parlay won.  We blew it on the straight sides to the tune of 1-5.

 

We are known for our teasers and moneyline parlays, so we are going to stick with those this week.

 

1. Moneyline Parlay @ -106

North Carolina over Wake Forest

Ole Miss over UTEP

Stanford over Duke

 

2. Moneyline Parlay @ -105

Ohio State over Central Florida

Bowling Green over Idaho

LSU over Washington

Indiana over UMass

Michigan over Air Force

Oklahoma State over Arizona

 

3. 10-point Teaser

Utah State +17 ½ vs. Utah

Virginia Pk vs. Penn State

Indiana – ½ vs. UMass

 

4. 10-point Teaser

North Carolina +2 vs. Wake Forest

Notre Dame +24 ½ vs. Purdue

Texas A&M +8 ½ vs. Florida

 

5. 10-point Teaser

Cincinnati & Pittsburgh OVER 39

Air Force & Michigan OVER 51 ½

Notre Dame & Purdue OVER 42

 

6. 13-point Teaser

Bowling Green -3 vs. Idaho

Clemson -14 vs. Ball State

Rice +22 ½ vs. Kansas

Ole Miss +5 ½ vs. UTEP

 

7. 13-point Teaser

Auburn +16 vs. Mississippi State

Texas A&M +11 ½ vs. Florida

Stanford -2 vs. Duke

Oklahoma State – ½ vs. Arizona

 

8. 13-point Teaser

Kentucky & Kent State OVER 30

Georgia & Missouri OVER 42

Iowa & Iowa State UNDER 60

Auburn & Mississippi State OVER 34

 

9. 13-point Teaser

Temple & Maryland UNDER 58 ½

Texas A&M & Florida OVER 39

Stanford & Duke UNDER 71 ½

Illinois & Arizona State OVER 35 ½

 

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