The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 18, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 7: October 20-24, 2016

A Strange Season So Far

It may not mean all that much to you, but as far as our ratings go, this has been one of the strangest NFL seasons in a long time. Our three ratings usually begin to look close to identical by the midway point of the season, because certain constants exist in football. After factoring strength of schedule, when one team consistently gains 350 total yards and gives up 280 total yards, and this team scores one point for every 12 yards gained and gives up one point for every 13 yards gained, then on a neutral field against a perfectly average NFL opponent, that team is one touchdown better, and in 100 games, that team should be expected to beat the perfectly average team about 75 times.

The above stated paragraph has been consistently accurate for a long time, basically since the NFL featured 12 teams in the 1950’s. Other parts of the game, like turnovers, special teams, and penalties affect the game to an extent, but on the whole, when a team out-gains its opponents by an average of 350 to 280 yards per game and scores a point for every 12 yards while giving up a point for every 13 yards given up, over the long haul, all the teams with these stats and that played an average schedule should average 7 points more per game than they give up. Averaging 7 points more per game than your opponents usually makes you a playoff team in any era.

This season, has been an anomaly. There are always cases where one team out-gains another by 200 yards and loses the game due to a turnover margin of -3, or some big special teams play, or even a large discrepancy in penalty yardage (think pass interference on a long pass). Then, there is a frequent case where the eventual winning team runs for 200 yards and controls possession of the game for 38 minutes while moving to a 28-point lead. Then, the eventual losing team passes for 200 yards in the last 22 minutes and loses by 14 points.

It is just six weeks, but the norms are all messed up this season. Teams that move the ball well all day are losing too many times to teams that look inept for half the game and win on data that usually does not contribute as much to the outcome as it has been contributing this year.

There is a second factor this year. Consistency has been thrown out the window. The Cincinnati Bengals look like Super Bowl contenders one week and like an expansion franchise the next. Miami gets embarrassed at home by Tennessee one week and then dominates Pittsburgh the next and sends Ben Roethlisberger to the operating table. One week, Oakland looks like the Raiders of Daryle Lamonica and Ben Davidson, and the next week they look like the Raiders of most of the last 15 years.

You have New England, Dallas, Minnesota, and Seattle as the most consistently good teams this year. Denver, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Washington have been up and down or down and up, and any of these teams could prove to be as consistent as the first four. However, the other 24 teams are like dice-rollers. One week, they roll an 8 and then hit 8 the hard way; the next week, they roll an 8 and then crap out with a 7.

This is where computer ratings are useless. Computer ratings cannot factor inconsistency. If a team is supposed to win by 10 but loses by 10, and then in the next game, they are supposed to lose by 10 and wins by 10, their rating is not going to differ much from a team that is supposed to win by 10 and does so and then loses by 10 when they are supposed to lose by 10.

You would almost need to have two different ratings for the teams–one when they are going to lay a golden egg, and one when they lay a rotten egg. An algorithm would then have to be constructed to determine whether the team would be golden or rotten. Good luck with that. There is only one way to try to make use of this knowledge–don’t invest any money on these games!

Okay, there are some very astute computer specialists and mathematical geniuses that can devise such an algorithm based on enough data to fill a small library. They can determine the chance that a team will be golden or rotten about 60 percent of the time. By further using this information to play more underdogs than favorites, they can win 5 out of 8 times (62.5%).

Believe it or not, 62.5% is enough to be banned from every respectable sports book in the world. The big-time winners must compensate others to place bets for them, because they are persona non grata with the books when they basically win 5 out of 8 times. If they bet through their confidential couriers at 6 different books for a total of $150,000 a game, and they bet on 16 games per weekend (college and pro), they are going to win 10 of the 16 games and pocket a profit near a half million dollars by the time they pay their commissions, while the books will be out more than a half million. After a quarter of a season, that’s more than two million bucks lost by the books, and they cannot have that.

We know that there are many other ways the wise guys exploit that you and us cannot use, such as playing both sides against the middle in games with wide swings in the spreads between the opening line and the lines just before kickoff.

What do the books want from you? Believe it or not, they want you to win four times out of nine and no less. If you can consistently win four times and lose five times every week, they have you hooked. You will slowly lose money every week, but you will be so close to winning that you can taste it, and you will get even next week. If you consistently win just 1 to 3 times a week, they cannot count on your betting next week unless you really have some screws loose.

They don’t even want you to go 4-5 every week. They hope that in 17 weeks of football, you will go 5-4 every third or fourth week and pocket a little profit, and that you will then go 4-5 all the other weeks. You and millions other giving them a couple hundred dollars every week make them very wealthy.

You can also make them wealthy by following our advice. So, please, lose on your own account and do not blame us. We just do this for fun. Unfortunately, we have had some moderate success in the past, and more than a few dozen of you with URLs from the State of Nevada read our Money Line articles every week believing that past success can be used to predict future results.

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 108.4 106.8 109.1 108.1 65 43
Buffalo 105.4 105.4 106.3 105.7 63 43
N. Y. Jets 98.8 97.2 99.7 98.6 58 41
Miami 95.7 96.5 95.4 95.8 58 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 104.4 103.9 105.5 104.6 64 41
Cincinnati 102.2 101.7 102.4 102.1 61 41
Baltimore 97.7 99.5 97.1 98.1 61 37
Cleveland 90.1 90.8 89.8 90.2 57 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 98.3 99.4 98.1 98.6 62 37
Indianapolis 96.7 98.4 96.0 97.0 61 36
Jacksonville 95.5 97.0 94.9 95.8 59 37
Tennessee 95.3 96.8 95.0 95.7 57 39
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 106.4 104.5 106.2 105.7 63 43
Kansas City 103.0 102.5 103.6 103.0 64 39
San Diego 100.1 101.0 99.8 100.3 64 36
Oakland 97.1 98.2 97.1 97.5 63 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Philadelphia 102.7 100.7 102.1 101.8 63 39
Dallas 101.4 100.9 101.8 101.4 61 40
Washington 100.2 100.1 100.3 100.2 62 38
N.Y. Giants 98.3 98.2 98.2 98.2 62 36
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 107.8 106.5 108.3 107.5 63 45
Green Bay 102.1 101.7 101.9 101.9 63 39
Detroit 98.7 98.4 98.4 98.5 61 38
Chicago 93.3 92.0 92.8 92.7 55 38
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 103.2 104.6 103.8 103.8 68 36
Carolina 101.9 102.0 101.8 101.9 60 42
New Orleans 97.6 99.6 97.1 98.1 64 34
Tampa Bay 95.4 95.9 94.8 95.4 59 36
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 107.3 104.4 108.1 106.6 63 44
Arizona 106.8 104.7 107.4 106.3 67 39
Los Angeles 98.8 99.9 98.6 99.1 57 42
San Francisco 91.5 92.5 91.0 91.7 54 38

 

This Week’s Games
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Green Bay Chicago 11.8 12.7 12.1 44
Los Angeles (L) New York Giants 0.5 1.7 0.4 41
Cincinnati Cleveland 14.1 12.9 14.6 45
Detroit Washington 0.5 1.3 1.1 48
Jacksonville Oakland 1.4 1.8 0.8 51
Kansas City New Orleans 8.4 5.9 9.5 56
Miami Buffalo -6.7 -5.9 -7.9 41
New York Jets Baltimore 3.6 0.2 5.1 41
Philadelphia Minnesota -2.1 -2.8 -3.2 43
Tennessee Indianapolis 1.6 1.4 2.0 44
Atlanta San Diego 6.1 6.6 7.0 61
San Francisco Tampa Bay -0.9 -0.4 -0.8 39
Pittsburgh New England -4.0 -2.9 -3.6 46
Arizona Seattle 2.5 3.3 2.3 48
Denver Houston 11.1 8.1 11.1 46
(L) Game to be played in London

 

 

 

 

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December 12, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 15: December 13-17, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:22 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New York Giants

107.6

106.9

106.5

106.0

2.5

Washington Redskins

100.8

101.4

101.7

102.0

2.5

Dallas Cowboys

99.6

100.3

100.6

101.0

1

Philadelphia Eagles

95.1

93.7

93.0

92.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Green Bay Packers

105.4

105.7

104.5

106.0

2

Chicago Bears

105.0

102.7

101.7

100.0

2

Detroit Lions

98.5

97.4

98.1

96.0

2.5

Minnesota Vikings

97.9

98.7

99.1

99.5

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Atlanta Falcons

103.3

104.4

104.2

105.5

2.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

100.7

98.8

97.1

96.5

2

New Orleans Saints

99.8

98.3

97.7

96.5

2.5

Carolina Panthers

96.8

96.5

97.6

96.0

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

San Francisco 49ers

108.5

107.8

104.4

107.0

2

Seattle Seahawks

107.9

106.8

106.3

105.5

5

St. Louis Rams

98.4

99.4

99.9

100.5

3

Arizona Cardinals

93.1

91.2

93.4

89.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New England Patriots

113.7

111.5

107.5

109.0

3

Miami Dolphins

98.7

98.4

98.1

98.0

1.5

New York Jets

97.9

98.9

99.0

100.0

1.5

Buffalo Bills

96.1

97.0

101.0

98.0

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Baltimore Ravens

103.3

104.1

104.5

105.0

5

Cincinnati Bengals

101.8

101.5

100.9

101.0

3

Pittsburgh Steelers

99.6

100.5

100.5

101.5

2.5

Cleveland Browns

97.1

98.5

100.1

100.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Houston Texans

105.3

105.4

105.5

105.5

3.5

Indianapolis Colts

95.4

99.7

101.8

104.5

4

Tennessee Titans

93.7

93.9

94.0

94.0

2

Jacksonville Jaguars

91.2

90.9

90.8

90.5

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Denver Broncos

108.3

108.4

106.8

108.5

3

San Diego Chargers

100.1

99.9

101.4

99.5

3

Oakland Raiders

90.0

91.4

92.1

93.0

3.5

Kansas City Chiefs

89.3

90.1

90.5

91.0

3.5

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Cincinnati PHILADELPHIA 3.7 4.8 4.9 6.0 3 1/2 45 1/2
CHICAGO Green Bay 1.6 -1.0 -0.8 -4.0 -3    42 1/2
N Y Giants ATLANTA 1.8 0.0 -0.2 -2.0 -1 1/2 51   
NEW ORLEANS
Tampa Bay
1.6 2.0 3.1 2.5 3 1/2 54   
ST. LOUIS Minnesota 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 3    38   
Washington CLEVELAND 1.2 0.4 -0.9 -0.5 -1    37 1/2
MIAMI Jacksonville 9.0 9.0 8.8 9.0 7    37   
BALTIMORE Denver 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.5 -2 1/2 48   
HOUSTON Indianapolis 13.4 9.2 7.2 4.5 7 1/2 48   
SAN DIEGO Carolina 6.3 6.4 6.8 6.5 3    45 1/2
Seattle BUFFALO 7.8 5.8 1.3 3.5 5    42 1/2
Detroit ARIZONA 2.4 3.2 1.7 4.0 6    44   
DALLAS
Pittsburgh
1.0 0.8 1.1 0.5 -1 1/2 44   
OAKLAND
Kansas City
4.2 4.8 5.1 5.5 3    43   
NEW ENGLAND San Francisco 8.2 6.7 6.1 5.0 5 1/2 47 1/2
N Y Jets TENNESSEE 2.2 3.0 3.0 4.0 -1    42   

 

Note: The Buffalo and Seattle game is being played in Toronto

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

A F C

1. New England Patriots 13-3

2. Houston Texans 13-3

3. Denver Broncos 13-3

4. Baltimore Ravens 10-6

5. Indianapolis Colts 11-5

6. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7

 

Steelers win tiebreaker over Cincinnati

 

N F C

1. Atlanta Falcons 13-3

2. Green Bay Packers 11-5

3. San Francisco 49ers 10-5-1

4. New York Giants 10-6

5. Seattle Seahawks 10-6

6. Chicago Bears 10-6

 

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh at Denver

Indianapolis at Baltimore

Chicago at San Francisco

Seattle at New York Giants

 

Divisional Round

Baltimore at New England

Denver at Houston

New York Giants at Atlanta

San Francisco at Green Bay

 

Conference Championships

Denver at New England

New York Giants at Green Bay

 

Super Bowl XLVII

New England vs. Green Bay

 

Super Bowl Champions: New England

 

December 4, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 14: December 6-10, 2012

Playoff Scenarios

 

A F C East

New England has secured the AFC East title and has a chance to earn home field advantage throughout the playoffs if they can run the table, and Houston loses to somebody else besides the Patriots.

 

The other three teams have mathematical chances of sneaking in as wildcards, but to say they are slim is still overstating those chances by a large margin.  Buffalo could rebound to finish 8-8.

 

A F C North

This race became much more interesting with the Steelers upsetting the Ravens in Baltimore.  Now, the Ravens lead is two games and is no longer infallible.  We see the second place teams Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both winning their next two games, and they should both be 9-5-0 when they face off at Heinz Stadium in week 16.  The winner of that game will be playoff bound, while the loser will need help or be out of the picture.

 

The winner of that week 16 game could finish tied with Baltimore, but the Ravens hold the tiebreaker edge over both teams.

 

A F C South

Houston can secure home field advantage for the playoffs if the Texans win at New England and don’t crumble afterwards.  We see the Texans losing this week and possibly in week 17 at Indianapolis.

 

Speaking of the Colts, Andrew Luck and company are in excellent shape in the wildcard race, and with games remaining with Tennessee and Kansas City, we see this team winning at least 10 games.  They must face Houston twice in the final three weeks, but we believe they will split those games to lock up a wildcard spot.  If they could somehow sweep the Texans, Indy could still emerge as division champs.

 

A F C West

Denver essentially took over command in this division when they came from behind to beat San Diego.  The Chargers collapsed, and the Broncos have run away with the division.  We are a bit concerned about their game at Oakland, because the Raiders always have their A-game against the Broncos.  If they can top the Raiders, the Broncos can run the table and possibly squeeze into the number two spot or even the top spot in the conference.

 

N F C East

Hail to the Redskins!  Washington has bested its two key division rivals in back-to-back games, and now RGIII and his Capital Punishers look to grab a division title.  We think the Redskins and Giants will finished tied for the division lead at 9-7, and if that is so, Washington will win the tiebreaker based on better division record.

 

The Giants can never be counted out, but they are not hitting on all cylinders.  With Atlanta and Baltimore still on the schedule, Eli Manning may not be able to win three more games to clinch a playoff bid.

 

Dallas looks like a stereotypical 8-8 team.  Only if the Giants and Redskins totally collapse will the Cowboys sneak into the playoffs.

 

N F C North

This division has begun to fade rather than improve as the northern chill takes over in the old Black and Blue Division.  Green Bay and Chicago will decide who is the division champ and who is the wildcard when they face off at Lambeau Field in two weeks.

 

Minnesota still has a remote chance to be a wildcard, but at 6-6, the Vikings must win out.  Their final four games include tough road games against Houston and St. Louis, as well as home games against the Bears and Packers.  It’s not happening this year.

 

N F C South

Atlanta almost has home field advantage wrapped up to the Super Bowl.  The Falcons own a 2 ½ game lead over San Francisco and could secure the number one seed in two weeks.  That would leave Atlanta with two meaningless games, but that week 17 game could be very important.

 

The Falcons’ week 17 game comes against Tampa Bay, and the Buccaneers are fighting for a wildcard spot.  The Bucs have a shot at entering that game at 9-6, and then that finale becomes very important.  Tampa Bay almost has to be 10-6 to make it as a wildcard.

 

N F C West

San Francisco may be the best team in the NFC, but the St. Louis Rams believe otherwise.  At 8-3-1, the 49ers are almost a lock to win the division, but they cannot be considered an overwhelming favorite to advance to the Super Bowl.

 

Seattle proved they can win on the road with a key victory in Soldier Field over the Bears.  The Seahawks have three remaining home games and a road game against Buffalo.  The opportunity is there for Pete Carroll’s team to run the table and possibly steal the division title away from San Francisco, but we believe the Seahawks will lose at least one time and have to settle for the wildcard.

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Houston

3. Denver

4. Baltimore

5. Pittsburgh

6. Indianapolis

 

N F C

1. Atlanta

2. San Francisco

3. Green Bay

4. Washington

5. Seattle

6. Chicago

 

Wildcard Round

Indianapolis at Denver

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Chicago at Green Bay

Seattle at Washington

 

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh at New England

Denver at Houston

Seattle at Atlanta

Green Bay at San Francisco

 

Conference Championship

Denver at New England

San Francisco at Atlanta

 

Super Bowl

New England vs. Atlanta

 

New England wins Super Bowl

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 105.9 104.7 104.1 103.5 3
Washington Redskins 100.5 101.1 101.4 102.0 2
Dallas Cowboys 98.8 99.3 99.5 100.0 1.5
Philadelphia Eagles 93.6 92.5 92.0 91.5 3.5
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 106.2 104.6 103.7 103.0 2.5
Green Bay Packers 105.4 103.9 101.8 102.5 2.5
Detroit Lions 98.5 97.5 98.5 96.5 2.5
Minnesota Vikings 96.7 97.7 98.1 99.0 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 105.6 106.8 106.6 108.5 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.2 101.5 99.7 101.0 2.5
New Orleans Saints 101.5 100.9 100.8 100.5 2.5
Carolina Panthers 94.5 94.2 96.2 94.0 1.5
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 108.3 107.1 104.2 106.0 2.5
Seattle Seahawks 104.4 104.3 104.3 104.5 5
St. Louis Rams 97.8 98.5 98.8 99.5 3.5
Arizona Cardinals 96.6 94.6 95.9 92.5 2
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 111.2 109.4 106.0 107.5 1.5
Miami Dolphins 98.9 98.8 98.6 99.0 1.5
New York Jets 97.9 96.9 96.2 96.0 2
Buffalo Bills 96.7 97.7 101.0 99.0 3.5
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 103.6 104.4 104.8 105.5 4.5
Cincinnati Bengals 102.6 103.1 103.2 104.0 3
Pittsburgh Steelers 101.7 103.1 102.6 105.0 4
Cleveland Browns 95.6 96.1 97.8 97.0 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 107.8 108.3 108.5 109.0 3
Indianapolis Colts 95.6 99.4 101.3 104.0 4.5
Tennessee Titans 93.5 93.9 94.0 94.5 2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 91.2 91.7 91.9 92.5 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 108.3 108.1 105.9 108.0 3
San Diego Chargers 98.0 97.4 99.2 97.0 2.5
Kansas City Chiefs 90.8 91.0 91.1 91.5 2.5
Oakland Raiders 90.0 91.5 92.3 93.5 3.5

 

Here are this week’s PiRate spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Denver OAKLAND 14.8 13.1 10.1 11.0 10 1/2 49 1/2
Baltimore WASHINGTON 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 -2 1/2 47   
CLEVELAND Kansas City 6.8 7.1 8.7 7.5 5 1/2 37 1/2
PITTSBURGH
San Diego
7.7 9.7 7.4 12.0 NL NL
INDIANAPOLIS Tennessee 6.6 10.0 11.8 14.0 5 1/2 48   
New York Jets JACKSONVILLE 6.2 4.7 3.8 3.0 2 1/2 38 1/2
Chicago MINNESOTA 6.0 3.4 2.1 0.5 3    39 1/2
Atlanta CAROLINA 9.6 11.1 8.9 13.0 3 1/2 47 1/2
TAMPA BAY Philadelphia 11.1 11.5 10.2 12.0 7    47   
BUFFALO St. Louis 2.4 2.7 5.7 3.0 3    42   
CINCINNATI Dallas 6.8 6.8 6.7 7.0 3    45 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO Miami 11.9 10.8 8.1 9.5 10    39   
NEW YORK GIANTS
New Orleans
7.4 6.8 6.3 6.0 5    53 1/2
SEATTLE
Arizona
12.8 14.7 13.4 17.0 10 1/2 34 1/2
GREEN BAY Detroit 9.4 8.9 5.8 8.5 6 1/2 52   
NEW ENGLAND Houston 4.9 2.6 -1.0 0.0 3 1/2 51 1/2

 

November 27, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 13: November 29-December 3, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:24 pm

Big Clearing In Playoff Picture

More teams played themselves out of the playoff picture this past week than played themselves into the playoff picture.  In the NFC, we can now count out Dallas, New Orleans, and Detroit, and we can begin the count on Minnesota.  In the AFC, we can now call the KO on the Jets, Buffalo, San Diego, and Tennessee.

 

Cincinnati and Miami made forward moves in the AFC, while Washington placed themselves in position to be in position if they can pull off the big win this week against the Giants.

 

Here is how we project the race to end along with a look at how we think the playoffs will go.

 

A F C

1. New England 13-3-0 (Pats can run the table even without Gronk)

2. Houston 13-3-0 (Lose at Foxboro and then to Indy in meaningless week 17 game)

3. Denver 12-4-0 (Broncos could run table, but we think they will slip at Oakland)

4. Baltimore 12-4-0 (Sweeps Pittsburgh, but falls to Denver to end #4)

5. Indianapolis 10-6-0 (Finishes 5th based on better AFC record)

6. Pittsburgh 10-6-0 (Week 16 game with Cincinnati decides this spot)

 

N F C

1. Atlanta 14-2-0 (1 ½ game lead over 49ers too much to fall from #1)

2. San Francisco 11-4-1 (Tough road games at Pats and Seahawks keep 49ers here)

3. Chicago 11-5-0 (Cutler has to stay healthy or Bears fall lower)

4. New York Giants 9-7-0 (Giants won it all from this spot last year)

5. Green Bay 10-6-0 (Injuries and age make this spot a bit precarious)

6. Seattle 9-7-0 (Seahawks edge Tampa Bay based on better NFC record)

 

Playoff Scenario

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh at Denver (Peyton exploits ailing Steeler defense)

Indianapolis at Baltimore (Ravens win by double digits)

Seattle at Chicago (If Cutler plays entire game, Bears win by about 6)

Green Bay at New York Giants (Giants win by less than 28 this time)

 

Divisional Round

Baltimore at New England (Old-fashioned dogfight in inclement weather—Bal wins)

Denver at Houston (Peyton leads Broncos to AFC Championship Game)

New York Giants at Atlanta (Giants repeat chances stay alive in upset)

Chicago at San Francisco (49ers win in a shootout even against healthy Cutler)

 

Conference Championships

New York Giants at San Francisco (49ers get their revenge in a blowout)

Baltimore at Denver (Peyton comes through again and sends Broncos to Super Bowl)

 

Super Bowl

San Francisco vs. Denver (First overtime game in Super Bowl history goes to 49ers)

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 106.4 105.3 104.7 104.0 3
Washington Redskins 100.0 100.2 100.4 100.5 2
Dallas Cowboys 98.8 98.9 99.0 99.0 2
Philadelphia Eagles 93.6 91.9 91.1 90.0 3.5
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 107.0 105.6 104.7 104.0 3.5
Green Bay Packers 105.7 104.0 102.0 102.0 3
Detroit Lions 99.9 99.3 100.4 98.5 3
Minnesota Vikings 96.4 97.9 98.6 99.5 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 105.3 106.3 106.2 107.5 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.2 101.9 100.4 101.5 3
New Orleans Saints 102.0 101.5 101.4 101.0 2.5
Carolina Panthers 95.4 95.5 97.5 95.5 1
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 110.2 108.5 104.9 106.5 1.5
Seattle Seahawks 103.1 102.6 102.3 102.0 5
Arizona Cardinals 96.4 94.4 96.1 92.0 2.5
St. Louis Rams 95.6 96.5 96.9 97.5 3.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 111.6 109.9 106.5 108.0 1.5
Miami Dolphins 98.5 98.7 98.8 99.0 1.5
New York Jets 98.1 96.7 95.5 95.0 3.5
Buffalo Bills 95.6 96.5 100.1 97.5 3
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 104.6 105.5 105.9 106.5 3.5
Cincinnati Bengals 102.0 102.7 102.8 103.5 3
Pittsburgh Steelers 100.7 101.6 100.9 102.5 3.5
Cleveland Browns 95.3 95.9 97.5 96.5 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 107.6 108.3 108.6 109.0 3
Indianapolis Colts 94.3 98.1 100.0 102.5 4.5
Tennessee Titans 94.0 95.4 96.1 97.0 2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 92.0 92.7 93.1 93.5 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 108.3 107.9 105.9 107.5 3
San Diego Chargers 98.9 98.3 99.8 97.5 3
Oakland Raiders 90.3 91.8 92.5 93.5 4
Kansas City Chiefs 90.2 89.9 89.7 89.5 2

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
ATLANTA New Orleans 5.3 6.8 6.8 8.5 3 1/2 56   
CHICAGO Seattle 7.4 6.5 5.9 5.5 4    38   
GREEN BAY Minnesota 12.3 9.1 6.4 5.5 9    46 1/2
San Francisco
ST. LOUIS
11.1 8.5 4.5 5.5 7    40   
N. Y. JETS Arizona 5.2 5.8 2.9 6.5 4 1/2 36 1/2
Carolina KANSAS CITY 3.2 3.6 5.8 4.0 3    40 1/2
DETROIT Indianapolis 8.6 4.2 3.4 -1.0 4 1/2 51   
BUFFALO Jacksonville 6.6 6.8 10.0 7.0 6    45   
New England MIAMI 11.6 9.7 6.2 7.5 7 1/2 51   
Houston TENNESSEE 11.1 10.4 10.0 9.5 5 1/2 47   
DENVER Tampa Bay 9.1 9.0 8.5 9.0 7    50 1/2
BALTIMORE Pittsburgh 7.4 7.4 8.5 7.5 NL NL
Cleveland
OAKLAND
1.0 0.1 1.0 -1.0 -1 1/2 45   
Cincinnati
SAN DIEGO
0.1 1.4 0.0 3.0 1 1/2 46   
DALLAS Philadelphia 7.2 9.0 9.9 11.0 9    43   
N. Y. Giants WASHINGTON 4.4 3.1 2.3 1.5 2 1/2 51   

 

November 20, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 12: November 22-26, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:18 pm

Interesting Races In Six Divisions

With six games to go for everybody, six of the eight divisions still have interesting races, be it for a divisional championship or wildcard contention.

AFC East

This is one of the two divisions that does not have an interesting race.  New England has a three-game lead over its other three rivals, and even with the loss of Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots will coast to an easy division title.

Buffalo is the only team of the back three that we see has a chance to get hot and go on a run to finish 9-7-0.  Even at 9-7-0, there is a good chance they would miss out on the playoffs.  This week’s game at Indianapolis may be the most important game left on their schedule.

AFC North

Baltimore now has a two-game lead over Pittsburgh, and it looks like the Ravens will keep that lead.  Pittsburgh needs Ben Roethlisberger to come back sooner rather than later, because Cincinnati could easily finish on a hot streak and nip them for second.  For now, we project Pittsburgh to edge out the Bengals and take one of the two wildcard spots.

AFC South

Houston is cruising to a division title, but the surprising Indianapolis Colts are in the thick of the wildcard race.  If the Colts continue to hold serve at home and pick up one road win from among Detroit, Houston, and Kansas City, they will take the second wildcard berth.  The schedule looks very favorable, because their three remaining home games are very winnable (especially if Houston does not need to win secure home field advantage in week 17.

AFC West

This is the other division with little excitement.  Peyton Manning proved he still has what it takes to win, and the Broncos are running away with the division title.  San Diego is underachieving for more than likely the last year under Norv Turner.

NFC East

The mediocrity division could possibly be won by an 8-8-0 team this year and should be won by a 9-7-0 team.  The New York Giants swooned in the middle of their schedule last year, losing four in a row by an average of 13 points per game.  They recovered to finish 9-7-0 but were outscored for the season before getting hot in the playoffs.

Dallas could easily be tied with the Giants by Sunday night, but don’t count out Washington yet.  If the Redskins win on Thanksgiving Day, and the Giants lose to Green Bay, RGIII and company will be one game out of first, and the Giants still have to visit Fedex Field.

NFC North

The old black and blue division is perhaps the most interesting race in the NFL.  With Jay Cutler sidelined the last six quarters, Chicago has become the Cookie Monsters of the Midway.  One Cutler comes back, the Bears should rebound, but Lovie Smith has to find a better way to provide Cutler protection.

Green Bay is not the power they were the last two seasons, but the Packers have enough horses remaining to get to 11-5 and guarantee themselves a playoff spot.

Minnesota is one of those teams that can be on and look like the Vikings of old or off and look like the Vikings of the last two years.  The Purple and White’s schedule is too difficult to get to 10-6.

NFC South

Atlanta built up too much of a lead to lose it, but New Orleans may be the better team at the present time.  Then, there’s Tampa Bay.  All three teams have enough talent and play well enough together to make a deep playoff run.

We believe the Buccaneers and Saints could finish in a tie for second, but one game shy of making it to the postseason.

NFC West

San Francisco’s situation is somewhat like Minnesota’s.  The 49ers can look like the 1985 Bears one week and the 2009 49er team the next.  However, using interpolation, if they continue this 50-50 trait, they will finish 11-4-1, 10-5-1 at the least.

Seattle is the big intangible in the entire league.  The Seahawks are tough at home and decent on the road.  They could easily go 3-0 at home from here on, and they could win two of their three road games (Miami, Chicago, Buffalo).  We believe Pete Carroll will be back in the playoffs this year.  If the Seahawks can win out and nip San Francisco for the division title, nobody will want to visit Centurylink Field in January.

PiRate Projections

NFC East Projection
New York Giants 9-7-0
Dallas Cowboys 7-9-0
Philadelphia Eagles 5-11-0
Washington Redskins 7-9-0
   
NFC North  
Green Bay Packers 11-5-0
Chicago Bears 11-5-0
Minnesota Vikings 9-7-0
Detroit Lions 7-9-0
   
NFC South  
Atlanta Falcons 13-3-0
New Orleans Saints 9-7-0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7-0
Carolina Panthers 4-12-0
   
NFC West  
San Francisco 49ers 10-5-1
Seattle Seahawks 10-6-0
St. Louis Rams 4-11-1
Arizona Cardinals 4-12-0
   
AFC East  
Buffalo Bills 8-8-0
Miami Dolphins 6-10-0
New England Patriots 12-4-0
New York Jets 7-9-0
   
AFC North  
Baltimore Ravens 13-3-0
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5-0
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7-0
Cleveland Browns 3-13-0
   
AFC South  
Houston Texans 14-2-0
Indianapolis Colts 10-6-0
Tennessee Titans 6-10-0
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-14-0
   
AFC West  
Denver Broncos 12-4-0
San Diego Chargers 6-10-0
Oakland Raiders 6-10-0
Kansas City Chiefs 1-15-0

 

Projected Playoff Seeds

A F C

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. New England

4. Denver

5. Pittsburgh

6. Indianapolis

 

N F C

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. San Francisco

4. New York Giants

5. Chicago

6. Seattle

 

Wildcard Round

Indianapolis at New England

Pittsburgh at Denver

Seattle at San Francisco

Chicago at New York Giants

 

Division Round

Lower Seeded Winner at Houston

Higher Seeded Winner at Baltimore

Lower Seeded Winner at Atlanta

Higher Seeded Winner at Green Bay

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 104.8 103.9 103.4 103.0 2.5
Dallas Cowboys 99.5 100.1 100.4 101.0 2.5
Washington Redskins 99.3 99.3 99.3 99.5 2.5
Philadelphia Eagles 94.6 92.8 92.0 91.0 2.5
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Green Bay Packers 107.3 106.6 104.7 106.0 2.5
Chicago Bears 106.6 103.9 102.7 101.0 2
Detroit Lions 99.6 99.5 100.8 99.5 2.5
Minnesota Vikings 96.8 99.4 100.6 102.5 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 105.1 106.6 106.8 108.5 2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.4 102.4 100.7 102.5 2.5
New Orleans Saints 102.3 103.5 104.1 105.0 3
Carolina Panthers 94.4 94.6 96.8 95.0 1.5
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 109.9 108.2 105.0 106.5 2.5
Seattle Seahawks 103.5 103.4 103.4 103.5 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 97.6 95.8 97.4 94.0 3
St. Louis Rams 94.4 95.8 96.4 97.5 3.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 110.4 108.3 104.8 106.0 2
New York Jets 99.3 98.1 96.9 97.0 3
Miami Dolphins 98.1 97.7 97.8 97.5 1
Buffalo Bills 96.1 96.9 100.1 98.0 3
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 104.8 105.0 105.2 105.5 4
Pittsburgh Steelers 101.4 101.8 100.7 102.5 3
Cincinnati Bengals 101.4 101.8 102.0 102.5 4
Cleveland Browns 94.6 94.7 96.1 95.0 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 107.9 108.1 108.2 108.5 2.5
Tennessee Titans 94.5 96.3 97.1 98.5 2.5
Indianapolis Colts 93.8 97.1 98.7 101.0 4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 91.5 91.9 92.1 92.5 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 109.0 108.0 105.4 107.0 3
San Diego Chargers 98.7 97.8 99.5 97.0 3
Oakland Raiders 90.9 91.8 92.2 93.0 4
Kansas City Chiefs 89.5 88.9 88.7 88.5 2

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Houston DETROIT 5.8 6.1 4.9 6.5 3    50 1/2
DALLAS Washington 2.7 3.3 3.6 4.0 3    47 1/2
New England N. Y. JETS 8.1 7.2 4.9 6.0 6 1/2 48   
CINCINNATI
Oakland
14.5 14.0 13.8 13.5 8    49   
Pittsburgh CLEVELAND 4.8 5.1 2.6 5.5 Pk NL
INDIANAPOLIS Buffalo 2.2 4.7 3.1 7.5 3    51   
Denver KANSAS CITY 17.5 17.1 14.7 16.5 10 1/2 44   
Tennessee JACKSONVILLE 2.5 3.9 4.5 5.5 3    43 1/2
CHICAGO Minnesota 11.8 6.5 4.1 0.5 Pk NL
Atlanta TAMPA BAY 0.2 1.7 3.6 3.5 1    48 1/2
Seattle MIAMI 4.4 4.7 4.6 5.0 3    37 1/2
Baltimore SAN DIEGO 3.1 4.2 2.7 5.5 Pk 47   
San Francisco
NEW ORLEANS
4.6 1.7 -2.1 -1.5 1 1/2 NL
ARIZONA
St. Louis
6.2 3.0 4.0 -0.5 2 1/2 37 1/2
N. Y. GIANTS Green Bay 0.0 -0.2 1.2 -0.5 2 1/2 49 1/2
PHILADELPHIA Carolina 2.7 0.7 -2.3 -1.5 2 1/2 NL

 

November 14, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 11: November 15-19, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:48 am

The Playoff Race—Is It Already Decided?

If the playoffs ended today, the 12 teams included would be:

AFC

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. Denver

4. New England

5. Pittsburgh

6. Indianapolis

 

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. San Francisco

4. New York Giants

5. Green Bay

6. Seattle

 

According to our ratings, these 12 teams project to remain the dozen that will make the playoffs.  We have very little change in our projections.

 

In the AFC, we believe the four division winners are already locked up.  Additionally, Pittsburgh should hang onto the top wildcard spot, even with the temporary quarterback issues.

 

We project the Colts to go 3-4 the rest of the way, while Cincinnati has an easy finishing schedule.  We see the Bengals closing 5-2.  Indianapolis has a 2 1/2 –game conference lead over Cincinnati, and if the Bengals and Colts finished tied at 9-7-0, Indy would own the tiebreaker in almost every scenario.

 

In the NFC, we are high on Seattle and believe the Seahawks have the most favorable schedule in the league.  It would not surprise us at all if Coach Pete Carroll’s team wins six of its final seven games and overtakes San Francisco by a half game.  We believe the two wildcard teams will have five losses apiece, so in order for a Minnesota at 6-4-0 or Tampa Bay at 5-4-0 to make the playoffs, they would have to lose no more than one more game.

 

Here is how we project the playoffs as of November 14, 2012:

 

A F C

1. Houston 15-1-0

2. Baltimore 13-3-0

3. New England 12-4-0

4. Denver 12-4-0

5. Pittsburgh 12-4-0

6. Indianapolis 9-7-0

 

N F C

1. Atlanta 15-1-0

2. Chicago 12-4-0

3. Seattle 11-5-0

4. New York Giants 9-7-0

5. Green Bay 11-5-0

6. San Francisco 10-5-1

 

Playoff Projections

Wildcard Round

New England over Indianapolis

Denver over Pittsburgh

Seattle over San Francisco

Green Bay over New York Giants

 

Divisional Round

Denver over Houston

Baltimore over New England

Atlanta over Green Bay

Seattle over Chicago

 

Conference Championships

Baltimore over Denver

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

Baltimore over Atlanta

 

Current PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 104.8 103.7 102.9 102.1 2.5
Dallas Cowboys 100.3 99.6 99.1 98.6 2.5
Philadelphia Eagles 97.2 97.3 97.1 97.1 2.5
Washington Redskins 96.7 96.8 96.6 96.6 2
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 108.5 107.5 106.6 106.1 2
Green Bay Packers 107.2 106.4 104.3 105.2 2.5
Detroit Lions 99.7 100.0 101.7 100.1 2.5
Minnesota Vikings 96.8 99.6 100.8 102.6 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 105.4 106.5 106.0 107.6 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.8 102.4 100.2 101.6 2.5
New Orleans Saints 100.7 102.0 102.9 103.2 3
Carolina Panthers 94.0 94.4 96.7 94.6 1.5
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 108.0 106.5 103.5 104.6 2
Seattle Seahawks 103.5 103.4 103.2 103.1 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 97.3 95.7 96.9 93.6 3
St. Louis Rams 96.5 97.8 98.3 99.1 4.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 108.8 106.3 102.8 103.1 1.5
Miami Dolphins 98.7 98.5 98.0 98.1 1
New York Jets 97.2 95.9 94.7 94.1 3
Buffalo Bills 95.5 96.6 99.6 97.6 3
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 104.1 104.9 105.1 105.6 4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 102.1 102.7 101.1 103.1 3
Cincinnati Bengals 99.7 100.5 101.2 101.1 4
Cleveland Browns 93.8 94.1 95.2 94.1 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 110.1 109.6 109.1 108.7 3
Indianapolis Colts 95.4 98.6 100.0 102.1 4
Tennessee Titans 94.5 96.5 97.3 98.6 2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 89.3 90.3 90.6 91.1 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 109.4 108.4 105.6 107.1 3
San Diego Chargers 98.3 97.9 99.7 97.1 3
Oakland Raiders 92.5 93.1 93.3 93.6 4.5
Kansas City Chiefs 91.2 90.3 89.7 89.1 2

 

Note: HFA is not merely home field advantage.  It is a combination of home field advantage plus the next opponents’ visiting team disadvantage.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Miami BUFFALO 0.2 -1.1 -4.6 -2.5 -1 1/2 45 1/2
WASHINGTON Philadelphia 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3 1/2 43 1/2
Green Bay DETROIT 5.0 3.9 0.1 2.6 3 1/2 51 1/2
ATLANTA Arizona 11.1 13.8 12.1 17.0 10    44   
Tampa Bay CAROLINA 7.3 6.5 2.0 5.5 1 1/2 48 1/2
DALLAS Cleveland 9.0 8.0 6.4 7.0 7 1/2 43 1/2
ST. LOUIS New York Jets 3.8 6.4 8.1 9.5 3    38 1/2
NEW ENGLAND Indianapolis 14.9 9.7 4.3 2.5 9    53 1/2
HOUSTON Jacksonville 23.8 22.3 21.5 20.6 15 1/2 40 1/2
Cincinnati KANSAS CITY 6.5 8.2 9.5 10.0 3 1/2 43 1/2
New Orleans OAKLAND 3.7 4.4 5.1 5.1 4 1/2 54 1/2
DENVER San Diego 14.1 13.5 8.9 13.0 7 1/2 48 1/2
PITTSBURGH
Baltimore
1.0 0.8 -1.0 0.5 -3 1/2 41   
SAN FRANCISCO
Chicago
1.5 1.0 -1.1 0.5 5    NL

 

 

November 7, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 10: November 8-12, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:25 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 106.5 106.6 106.7 106.5 1.5
Dallas Cowboys 99.0 98.6 98.5 98.0 3
Philadelphia Eagles 98.6 98.7 98.7 98.5 3.5
Washington Redskins 96.7 96.7 96.7 96.5 2.5
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 108.9 108.4 107.7 107.5 1.5
Green Bay Packers 107.1 105.8 103.8 104.0 2
Detroit Lions 100.6 101.6 103.7 102.5 2
Minnesota Vikings 95.8 98.6 99.9 101.5 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 106.2 107.4 106.6 108.5 1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.1 101.0 99.2 99.5 2
New Orleans Saints 99.5 100.3 101.2 101.0 2
Carolina Panthers 95.7 95.5 97.5 95.0 2
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 109.1 107.8 104.8 106.0 1.5
Seattle Seahawks 102.1 102.2 102.2 102.0 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 97.3 96.6 98.6 95.5 3
St. Louis Rams 95.3 96.4 97.0 97.5 4.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 109.5 108.2 105.9 106.5 2
Miami Dolphins 101.2 100.8 100.0 100.0 2.5
New York Jets 98.7 97.8 96.8 96.5 2.5
Buffalo Bills 96.2 94.8 96.8 93.0 2.5
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Pittsburgh Steelers 103.5 102.9 100.7 102.0 3.5
Baltimore Ravens 102.3 103.0 103.3 103.5 4
Cincinnati Bengals 97.9 97.6 98.6 97.0 3
Cleveland Browns 93.8 94.0 94.9 94.0 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 109.6 109.0 108.7 108.0 2.5
Indianapolis Colts 93.3 96.8 98.5 100.5 4.5
Tennessee Titans 91.9 92.5 92.8 93.0 3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 91.1 91.2 91.2 91.0 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 107.4 106.4 104.3 105.0 3.5
San Diego Chargers 99.2 99.0 100.5 98.5 2.5
Oakland Raiders 94.2 94.7 94.9 95.0 3.5
Kansas City Chiefs 89.7 89.5 89.4 89.0 3.5

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Indianapolis JACKSONVILLE 1.7 5.1 6.8 9.0 3    42 1/2
NEW ENGLAND Buffalo 15.3 15.4 11.1 15.5 11    51   
N.Y. Giants CINCINNATI 5.6 6.0 5.1 6.5 4    48 1/2
TAMPA BAY
San Diego
5.9 5.0 1.7 4.0 3    47 1/2
Denver CAROLINA 9.2 8.4 4.3 7.5 4    47 1/2
MIAMI Tennessee 11.8 10.8 9.7 9.5 6    44   
BALTIMORE Oakland 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.5 7 1/2 46   
Atlanta NEW ORLEANS 4.7 5.1 3.4 5.5 2 1/2 53 1/2
Detroit MINNESOTA 1.3 -0.5 0.3 -2.5 2    47   
SEATTLE New York Jets 8.9 9.9 10.9 11.0 6 1/2 38 1/2
PHILADELPHIA Dallas 3.1 3.6 3.7 4.0 -1    44 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO St. Louis 15.3 12.9 9.3 10.0 11 1/2 38 1/2
CHICAGO
Houston
0.8 0.9 0.5 1.0 1    41 1/2
PITTSBURGH
Kansas City
17.3 16.9 14.8 16.5 12 1/2 42 1/2

 

The Playoffs As Of Today

AFC

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. New England

4. Denver

5. Indianapolis

6. Pittsburgh

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. San Francisco

4. New York Giants

5. Green Bay

6. Seattle

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh at New England

Indianapolis at Denver

Seattle at San Francisco

Green Bay at New York Giants

October 31, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 9: November 1-5, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:11 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 107.3 107.5 107.6 108.0 2
Philadelphia Eagles 99.8 99.6 99.5 99.5 2.5
Dallas Cowboys 98.9 98.6 98.5 98.5 2.5
Washington Redskins 97.7 97.8 97.8 98.0 2.5
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 107.3 106.6 106.2 106.0 1.5
Green Bay Packers 106.9 105.9 104.0 105.0 2
Detroit Lions 99.9 100.8 102.7 102.0 2.5
Minnesota Vikings 95.8 98.8 100.3 102.5 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 106.3 107.7 106.8 109.5 1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 101.4 100.9 99.3 100.5 1.5
New Orleans Saints 98.3 99.2 100.3 100.5 1.5
Carolina Panthers 94.7 93.1 94.7 91.5 2.5
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 109.1 108.0 105.2 107.0 1.5
Seattle Seahawks 102.1 102.2 102.2 102.5 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 97.5 96.9 99.0 96.5 2.5
St. Louis Rams 95.3 95.1 95.0 95.0 4.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 109.5 107.8 105.4 106.0 2
Miami Dolphins 101.9 102.6 102.2 103.5 2
New York Jets 98.7 97.1 95.8 95.5 2.5
Buffalo Bills 96.1 94.6 96.5 93.0 2.5
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Pittsburgh Steelers 102.7 102.5 100.7 102.5 4
Baltimore Ravens 102.0 102.4 102.6 103.0 4.5
Cincinnati Bengals 98.1 98.0 98.8 98.0 3
Cleveland Browns 94.1 93.7 94.3 93.5 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 109.7 109.1 108.7 108.5 3
Tennessee Titans 93.5 93.6 93.7 94.0 3.5
Indianapolis Colts 92.6 96.7 98.6 101.5 4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 91.8 91.1 90.8 90.5 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 107.2 106.1 103.9 105.0 3.5
San Diego Chargers 98.8 99.3 101.2 100.0 2.5
Oakland Raiders 94.9 97.2 98.3 100.0 3.5
Kansas City Chiefs 90.1 89.7 89.5 89.5 3

PiRate Rating Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
SAN DIEGO Kansas City 11.2 12.1 14.2 13.0 9    42 1/2
Denver CINCINNATI 6.1 5.1 2.1 4.0 3 1/2 47 1/2
GREEN BAY Arizona 11.4 11.0 7.0 10.5 11    43 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS Miami -4.8 -1.4 0.9 2.5 -1 1/2 43   
Baltimore CLEVELAND 5.9 6.7 6.3 7.5 3 1/2 42 1/2
HOUSTON Buffalo 16.6 17.5 15.2 18.5 10 1/2 47   
WASHINGTON Carolina 5.5 7.2 5.6 9.0 3 1/2 47   
Detroit JACKSONVILLE 7.6 9.2 11.4 11.0 3 1/2 44   
Chicago TENNESSEE 10.3 9.5 9.0 8.5 3 1/2 43 1/2
SEATTLE Minnesota 10.8 7.9 6.4 4.5 5    38   
Tampa Bay OAKLAND 3.0 0.2 -2.5 -3.0 -1    46   
N Y GIANTS Pittsburgh 6.6 7.0 8.9 7.5 3    47 1/2
ATLANTA Dallas 8.9 10.6 9.8 12.5 4    47 1/2
NEW ORLEANS Philadelphia 0.0 1.1 2.3 2.5 3    52 1/2

If The Playoffs Started Today

AFC

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. New England

4. Denver

5. Miami

6. Indianapolis

 

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. New York Giants

4. San Francisco

5. Green Bay

6. Minnesota

 

­Wildcard Round

Indianapolis at New England

Miami at Denver

Minnesota at New York Giants

Green Bay at San Francisco

October 24, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 8: October 25-29, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:27 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 107.2 107.5 107.6 108.0 1
Philadelphia Eagles 101.5 102.3 102.7 103.5 3.5
Dallas Cowboys 99.0 100.3 100.9 102.0 1.5
Washington Redskins 98.4 99.8 100.4 101.5 2
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 108.4 107.2 106.4 106.0 2.5
Green Bay Packers 107.6 106.1 103.7 104.5 2
Detroit Lions 99.6 99.5 101.2 99.5 1.5
Minnesota Vikings 98.0 100.2 101.3 103.0 4
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 104.6 106.3 106.1 108.5 1.5
New Orleans Saints 99.1 99.7 99.9 100.5 1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 98.9 96.3 94.0 93.5 3
Carolina Panthers 93.6 91.8 93.2 90.0 3.5
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 108.1 106.8 104.2 105.5 2
Seattle Seahawks 102.4 102.8 103.0 103.5 4
Arizona Cardinals 98.5 98.4 100.3 98.5 2.5
St. Louis Rams 98.0 99.5 100.3 101.5 4
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 107.1 104.9 102.3 102.5 1.5
New York Jets 101.0 100.4 99.2 100.0 2.5
Miami Dolphins 99.9 100.1 100.4 100.5 2.5
Buffalo Bills 96.1 96.4 98.8 97.0 2.5
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 102.0 102.8 103.2 104.0 4
Pittsburgh Steelers 102.0 101.4 99.5 101.0 3
Cincinnati Bengals 98.1 98.4 99.4 99.0 3
Cleveland Browns 93.6 93.2 93.9 93.0 2.5
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 109.7 108.4 107.7 107.0 3
Tennessee Titans 94.3 95.9 96.7 98.0 3.5
Indianapolis Colts 91.8 94.6 96.0 98.0 4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 90.8 90.1 89.8 89.5 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 106.4 105.0 102.8 103.5 3.5
San Diego Chargers 99.3 99.5 101.1 100.0 2
Oakland Raiders 93.4 95.0 95.8 97.0 4
Kansas City Chiefs 91.6 89.4 88.3 87.0 3

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
MINNESOTA Tampa Bay 3.1 7.9 11.3 13.5 6 1/2 42 1/2
New England St. Louis  (London) 9.1 5.4 2.0 1.0 7    47
TENNESSEE Indianapolis 6.0 4.8 4.2 3.5 3 1/2 46 1/2
GREEN BAY Jacksonville 18.8 18.0 15.9 17.0 15 1/2 45 1/2
San Diego CLEVELAND 3.2 3.8 4.7 4.5 2 1/2 44
Atlanta PHILADELPHIA -0.4 0.5 -0.1 1.5 -2 1/2 45 1/2
Seatte DETROIT 1.3 1.8 0.3 2.5 -2    43 1/2
N Y JETS Miami 3.6 2.8 1.3 2.0 2 1/2 41
CHICAGO Carolina 17.3 17.9 15.7 18.5 7 1/2 43
PITTSBURGH Washington 6.6 4.6 2.1 2.5 4 1/2 47 1/2
KANSAS CITY Oakland 1.2 -2.6 -4.5 -7.0 1 1/2 41 1/2
N Y Giants DALLAS 6.7 5.7 5.2 4.5 2    47 1/2
DENVER New Orleans 10.8 8.8 6.4 6.5 6    55 1/2
San Francisco ARIZONA 7.1 5.9 1.4 4.5 6 1/2 37 1/2

 

If The Playoffs Started Today

AFC

1. Houston Texans 6-1-0

2. Baltimore Ravens 5-2-0

3. New England Patriots 4-3-0

4. Denver Broncos 3-3-0

5. San Diego Chargers 3-3-0

6. Miami Dolphins 3-3-0

 

Wildcard Round: Miami at New England & San Diego at Denver

 

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons 6-0-0

2. Chicago Bears 5-1-0

3. New York Giants 5-2-0

4. San Francisco 49ers 5-2-0

5. Minnesota Vikings 5-2-0

6. Green Bay Packers 4-3-0

 

Wildcard Round: Green Bay at New York & Minnesota at San Francisco

October 17, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 7: October 18-22, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:30 pm

What Happens When Everybody Goes 8-8

Okay, that’s a little bit of an exaggeration, but when was the last time only two teams in a conference had winning records after six weeks of the season?  It has not happened in the 32-team version of the NFL—until this year.  Houston and Baltimore are the only two AFC teams with a winning record this week.  With Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and San Diego losing, almost every AFC team is still in contention for a Wildcard berth.  Even Jacksonville, Oakland, and Kansas City still have legitimate hopes.

 

The AFC East is a four-way logjam at 3-3.  3-3 is good enough to qualify for both wildcard spots at the moment.

 

The NFC is not much different.  The NFC South is the only race that appears to be in hand by one team.  Atlanta is 6-0 and has a 3 ½ -game lead over Tampa Bay.  If the playoffs started today, a 4-2 team would be left out on this side.

 

Parity is at the point where a wise player needs to strongly consider searching for value in the underdogs, especially if those teams lost the previous week.  Just when it appeared that the New York Jets were headed to misery, they pull out a performance that looked more like the 1972 and 1973 Miami Dolphins.  Just when it looked as if San Francisco was head and heels above the rest of the league, the New York Giants embarrass them at home.  One week Phillip Rivers looks like the next Tom Brady, and the next week he looks more like Marcia Brady.

 

What makes this parity more believable is that the offensive and defensive lines in the league do not seem to have enough depth to be consistent.  Just an injury or two along the front walls can make a good team bad in one week.  Numerous little injuries can be worth a couple yards per play, and that is enough to turn a winner to a loser.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 107.7 108.0 106.9 106.5 1
Philadelphia Eagles 101.5 101.0 101.6 102.0 4
Dallas Cowboys 98.6 99.3 100.0 101.0 1.5
Washington Redskins 97.8 98.6 100.0 101.5 2
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 108.8 109.1 106.3 105.5 2.5
Green Bay Packers 106.6 106.2 103.3 104.0 2.5
Detroit Lions 99.1 98.4 100.7 99.0 1.5
Minnesota Vikings 97.3 98.8 100.6 102.5 2.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 104.6 106.2 105.6 107.5 2.5
New Orleans Saints 100.1 98.8 96.2 95.0 2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 97.9 98.7 96.9 97.5 3.5
Carolina Panthers 94.0 94.8 95.5 93.0 3
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 108.3 107.5 104.5 105.5 2.5
Seattle Seahawks 102.2 102.2 103.4 104.5 3.5
Arizona Cardinals 99.2 100.1 101.6 100.0 2.5
St. Louis Rams 98.7 100.8 101.0 102.0 4.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 108.3 108.4 103.3 103.0 1.5
Miami Dolphins 99.9 99.6 99.8 100.0 2.5
New York Jets 99.8 99.0 100.4 102.0 3.5
Buffalo Bills 97.4 96.1 100.7 100.0 3.5
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 104.5 105.5 105.5 106.0 3
Pittsburgh Steelers 101.3 100.2 98.4 99.5 2.5
Cincinnati Bengals 98.8 98.3 98.9 98.5 2.5
Cleveland Browns 93.9 93.9 94.5 93.5 2.5
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 107.4 108.2 106.3 105.5 2.5
Tennessee Titans 93.0 92.1 95.4 97.5 4
Indianapolis Colts 91.5 91.9 94.7 97.0 4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 90.0 89.6 90.4 91.0 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 106.4 105.6 102.0 102.0 3
San Diego Chargers 99.3 99.6 101.1 100.0 2
Oakland Raiders 94.2 93.0 94.9 96.0 3.5
Kansas City Chiefs 91.6 90.4 89.4 88.5 3

 

This Week’s Games

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
SAN FRANCISCO Seattle 8.6 7.8 3.6 3.5 7    38   
BUFFALO Tennessee 7.9 7.5 8.8 6.0 3    46 1/2
MINNESOTA Arizona 2.1 2.7 3.0 6.5 6    40   
INDIANAPOLIS Cleveland 2.1 2.5 4.7 8.0 2 1/2 45   
HOUSTON Baltimore 5.4 5.2 3.3 2.0 6 1/2 48 1/2
Green Bay ST. LOUIS 3.4 0.9 -2.2 -2.5 5 1/2 45   
Dallas CAROLINA 1.6 1.5 1.5 5.0 2    45 1/2
N. Y. GIANTS Washington 10.9 10.4 7.9 6.0 5 1/2 50   
TAMPA BAY New Orleans 1.3 3.4 4.2 6.0 -3    49 1/2
NEW ENGLAND N. Y. Jets 10.0 10.9 4.4 2.5 10 1/2 47   
OAKLAND Jacksonville 7.7 6.9 8.0 8.5 4    43 1/2
CINCINNATI Pittsburgh 0.5 1.1 3.5 2.0 -1 1/2 45 1/2
CHICAGO Detroit 12.2 13.2 8.1 9.0 6    47 1/2
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