The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 21, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for November 21-26, 2018

Oh woe to us!  After so many really nice winning weeks by our Land Sharps, they took a beating last week.  One went into the red in his account, while the other four all slipped dangerously close to joining in the red ink ledgers.

Our own PiRate Ratings have had almost a -1 correlation with the Land Sharps this year.  While the Sharps were losing, our own picks had their second best results of the season, finishing 9-3 against the spread including winning that incredible 15-game parlay.  We promise 5 Dimes not to give them any further heart attacks this year, so we will not issue any more of them.

This is rivalry week, and it is historically one of the hardest weeks for investors to show a profit by late Monday night.  However, we tend to focus on other implications besides rivalry bragging rights.  There are other, even more important factors to consider this week.  If a team is 5-6, or if a team’s coach has been told to get a cardboard box and clean out his office after Saturday, the players on that team are going to play their A-games.  A 2-9 team may play like they are 7-4, and a 4-7 team may play like they are 9-2.  On the other hand, there might be teams that saw their chance for glory go by the wayside in the last couple of weeks.  Teams that were 4-5 and are now 4-7 have little to play for.  They know this is their last game of the year, and they can look forward to spending Christmas at home.  Their mind is on Grandma’s pie and Mom’s prized winning ham.  Then, there are the teams that have suffered through dissension in the last half of the schedule.  Many of their players have basically quit on their coach, because they hope he isn’t back the next season.  There are a lot of factors to consider when playing Week 13 games.

Our Land Sharps threw caution to the wind this week.  We expected one or more to play the minimum three games trying to stall out the season and guarantee a winning record.  But, like Ted Williams in 1941, they are not going to sit out the final.  They are going to play both games of the double header.  Let’s hope they all can raise their batting average up to .407 by the end of the weekend.

1.) Cal Gal Tiffany  Season: 36-26-0  Return on Investment: 11.9%

Memphis -7 vs. Houston

Washington St.  -2 1/2 vs. Washington

Pittsburgh +4 1/2 vs. Miami (Fla.)

South Carolina +26 1/2 vs. Clemson

Texas A&M -3 vs. LSU

 

2.) Stewed Meat  Season 35-27-1  Return on Investment: 8.4%

Ole Miss +12 vs. Mississippi St.

Coastal Carolina Pk. vs. South Alabama

Florida Int’l. +3 vs. Marshall

Troy +11 vs. Appalachian St.

SMU -2 1/2 vs. Tulsa

Colorado +12 1/2 vs. California

Texas A&M -3 vs. LSU

 

3.) Dean615  Season: 27-22-2  Return on Investment: 5.5%

Notre Dame -10 1/2 vs. USC

Houston +7 1/2 vs. Memphis

Michigan – 4 1/2 vs. Ohio St.

Middle Tennessee +3 vs. UAB

Maryland +13 1/2 vs. Penn St.

Minnesota + 10 1/2 vs. Wisconsin

Tennessee +3 1/2 vs. Vanderbilt

 

4.) Buckeye Michelle  Season: 28-23-1  Return on Investment: 5.2%

Virginia -4 vs. Virginia Tech

Indiana +4 vs. Purdue

Wake Forest +12 vs. Duke

Wyoming -6 1/2 vs. New Mexico

Kansas St. +13 1/2 vs. Iowa St.

Ohio St. +4 1/2 vs. Michigan

Washington St. -2 1/2 vs. Washington

 

5.) Friday Dog 13: Season 30-28-1  Return on Investment: -1.4%

Buffalo – 14 1/2 vs. Bowling Green

Florida -6 vs. Florida St.

Michigan -4 1/2 vs. Ohio St.

North Carolina St. -7 vs. North Carolina

Central Florida -14 vs. South Florida

Stanford -6 1/2 vs. UCLA

UAB -2 1/2 vs. Middle Tennessee

Notre Dame – 10 1/2 vs. USC

Nevada -13 vs. UNLV

 

The PiRate Ratings Selections

COLLEGE
10-Point Teasers 3-Game Parlays @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Air Force Colorado St. 24.5 Colorado St.
Texas Kansas 5 Texas
Navy Tulane 3 Tulane
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Marshall Florida Int’l. 13 Florida Int’l.
Rice Old Dominion 2.5 Old Dominion
Central Florida South Florida 4 Central Florida
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
New Mexico Wyoming 3 Wyoming
Arizona St. Arizona 12 Arizona
Miami (Fla.) Pittsburgh 14.5 Pittsburgh
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Tulsa SMU 7.5 SMU
California Colorado 2.5 California
Notre Dame USC 0.5 Notre Dame
13-point Teasers 4 Game Parlays @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Middle Tennessee UAB 10.5 UAB
Duke Wake Forest 25 Wake Forest
West Virginia Oklahoma 10.5 Oklahoma
Washington Washington St. 10.5 Washington St.
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Missouri Arkansas 10 Missouri
Michigan Ohio St. 17.5 Ohio St.
LSU Texas A&M 10 Texas A&M
Utah St. Boise St. 10.5 Boise St.
Money Line Parlay @ +175
Must Win Must Lose
Florida Int’l. Marshall
Texas Kansas
Money Line Parlay @ +153
Must Win Must Lose
SMU Tulsa
Georgia Southern Georgia St.
Central Florida South Florida
Money Line Parlay @ +222
Must Win Must Lose
Oklahoma West Virginia
Wyoming New Mexico
Tulane Navy
Money Line Parlay @ +295
Must Win Must Lose
Washington St. Washington
UL-Monroe Louisiana
Florida Florida St.
NFL
10-Point Teaser 3-Game Parlay @11-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Chicago Detroit 13.5 Detroit
Washington Dallas 3 Dallas
New Orleans Atlanta 3 New Orleans
13-Point Teasers 4-Game Parlays @12-10
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Philadelphia N.Y. Giants 19 N.Y. Giants
N.Y. Jets New England 2.5 New England
Arizona L.A. Chargers 0.5 L.A. Chargers
Miami Indianapolis 5.5 Indianapolis
Team Team Total Pick
Chicago Detroit 31.5 Over
Dallas Washington 27.5 Over
San Francisco Tampa Bay 67.5 Under
Philadelphia N.Y. Giants 33 Over

Remember This Important Fact: All of the selections you see here are posted for entertainment purposes only.  None of the Pirates or guest Land Sharps actually play their selections for real.  While Stewed Meat is a professional, Stewed never posts the actual picks played in Nevada.  These are Stewed’s runner up picks that are not played.  We strongly encourage you not to wager real money on any selections you see here.

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November 14, 2013

PiRate Picks For November 14-18, 2013

We are going with 7 strong plays this week, sticking with what works.

 

Our college Money Line Parlays keep winning for us, and our NFL 13-point Teasers do so as well, so let’s just stick with those two options until it runs its course.

 

1. Money Line Parlay @ -117

Florida Atlantic over Southern Miss.

SMU over Connecticut

San Diego St. over Hawaii

 

2. Money Line Parlay @ -113

Central Florida over Temple

Akron over Massachusetts

Kansas St. over TCU

 

3. Money Line Parlay @ -112

Marshall over Tulsa

Boston College over North Carolina St.

South Carolina over Florida

 

4. Money Line Parlay @ -101

Clemson over Georgia Tech

Navy over South Alabama

Arizona over Washington St.

 

5. 13-point Teaser

Indianapolis +10 vs. Tennessee

Tampa Bay +14 ½ vs. Atlanta

NY Jets +14 vs. Buffalo

Pittsburgh +15 ½ vs. Detroit

 

6. 13-point Teaser

Detroit + 10 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

Washington +17 ½ vs. Philadelphia

San Diego + 11 ½ vs. Miami

Baltimore +16 vs. Chicago

 

7. 13-point Teaser

Cleveland +19 vs. Cincinnati

Oakland +20 vs. Houston

Seattle Pk. vs. Minnesota

New England +15 ½ vs. Carolina

November 7, 2013

PiRate Picks for November 6-11, 2013

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:01 pm

The saying goes that when picking football games against Las Vegas, the fools play the exotic wagers, while the smarts play the sides and totals.

We are the anti-fools here on the PiRate ship.  We tried our hand at going with mostly sides last week with nine selections, and we threw four exotic selections in as well.

The nine straight side selections went 2-7.  The four exotic selections finished 3-1.  We’ll let those with the sayings make their wagers, and we’ll go back to what has worked for us for the long term.

This week, we are picking no straight sides.  It’s all teasers and money line parlays.

1. 10-point Teaser

Oklahoma +26 vs. Baylor

Cincinnati +1 vs. SMU

Duke + ½ vs. North Carolina St.

 

2. 10-point Teaser

Missouri -4 vs. Kentucky

Florida Pk. vs. Vanderbilt

Colorado St. + ½ vs. Nevada

 

3. 10-point Teaser

USC -6 ½ vs. California

Central Florida – ½ vs. Houston

Alabama -2 ½ vs. L S U

 

4. 13-point Teaser

UL-Lafayette -1 vs. Troy

Iowa -2 vs. Purdue

Western Kentucky +7 ½ vs. Army

East Carolina -4 vs. Tulsa

 

5. 13-point Teaser

Minnesota +11 vs. Penn St.

North Carolina – ½ vs. Virginia

Wyoming +22 vs. Fresno St.

Ole Miss -4 vs. Arkansas

 

6. 13-point Teaser

Navy -4 vs. Hawaii

Notre Dame +8 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

Arizona +14 vs. U C L A

San Jose St. +6 ½ vs. San Diego St.

 

7. Money Line Parlay @ -116

Texas A&M over Mississippi St.

East Carolina over Tulsa

Navy over Hawaii

Ole Miss over Arkansas

North Carolina over Virginia

 

8. Money Line Parlay @ -102

Texas A&M over Mississippi St.

Missouri over Kentucky

Alabama over L S U

Florida over Vanderbilt

 

9. Money Line Parlay @ -112

Texas A&M over Mississippi St.

Colorado St. over Nevada

Auburn over Tennessee

 

10. 13-point Teaser

Washington +11 ½ vs. Minnesota

Tennessee +1 vs. Jacksonville

Philadelphia +14 vs. Green Bay

Indianapolis +3 ½ vs. St. Louis

 

11. 13-point Teaser

Seattle +7 ½ vs. Atlanta

Cincinnati +11 ½ vs. Baltimore

Detroit +13 vs. Chicago

Dallas +19 ½ vs. New Orleans

September 26, 2013

PiRate Picks for September 26-30, 2013

Our 2013 picks have been mediocre to date, so when we warn you to realize you are getting what you paid for, take that to heart.  Last week, our picks finished 4-5, a minor loss, but still disappointing.  We have begun to notice certain trends, and we will adjust our picks to better follow what we think we have spotted.  We are going with 17 selections this week, and hoping we can at least finish 10-7.

 

Our three computer ratings have begun the season with an accuracy rate slightly higher than a typical year.  Check out the table below, but take note: even we do not rely on these computer ratings to pick games.  Overall, the computer ratings may do better than human selection, but that is in theory only.  Nobody can play every game, and the only way to match the computer ratings is to play every game.  Once you become selective, the human element is back in the decision-making process.

 

College

Rating

Winners

Vs. Spread

PiRate

81%

53%

PiRate Mean

80%

49%

PiRate Bias

82%

52%

 

 

 

N F L

Rating

Winners

Vs. Spread

PiRate

73%

57%

PiRate Mean

71%

53%

PiRate Bias

73%

57%

 

Here are this week’s selections that you are ordered not to take to the bank.

 

Straight Wagers

 1. Georgia Tech -7 vs. Virginia Tech

 2. Pittsburgh -5 vs. Virginia

 3. East Carolina +12 ½ vs. North Carolina

 4. S M U +20 vs. T C U

 5. L S U +3 vs. Georgia

 6. Akron +15 ½ vs. Bowling Green

 7. Kentucky +13 ½ vs. Florida

 8. Navy -3 vs. Western Kentucky

 9. Ohio St. -6 ½ vs. Wisconsin

10. Texas A&M -3 vs. Arkansas

 

11. 13-Point Teaser

Tulsa +10 ½ vs. Iowa St.

Ball St. +10 ½ vs. Toledo

Florida St. -9 ½ vs. Boston College

Iowa +12 vs. Minnesota

 

12. 13-Point Teaser

Pittsburgh +7 ½ vs. Virginia

East Carolina +25 vs. North Carolina

L S U +16 vs. Georgia

Florida Pk. vs. Kentucky

 

13. 13-Point Teaser

Minnesota +15 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Buffalo

Cincinnati +9 vs. Cleveland

Indianapolis +5 ½ vs. Jacksonville

 

14. 13-Point Teaser

Detroit +16 vs. Chicago

NY Jets +16 ½ vs. Tennessee

Denver +2 ½ vs. Philadelphia

New England +15 vs. Atlanta

 

15. 13-Point Teaser

Houston & Seattle OVER 30

Tampa Bay & Arizona OVER 27 ½

NY Jets & Tennessee OVER 25 ½

Washington & Oakland OVER 30 ½

 

16. Money Line Parlay @ -117

Denver over Philadelphia

Baltimore over Buffalo

 

17. Money Line Parlay @ -116

Cincinnati over Cleveland

Indianapolis over Jacksonville

August 29, 2013

PiRate Football Picks For August 29 to September 2, 2013

PiRate Picks For August 29 to September 2, 2013

PiRate Business Card Picture 

Welcome back to the most popular weekly publication of the PiRate Ratings.  Last year, anywhere from 585 to 1,734 readers came by to peruse our picks, as we have become known for playing sweetheart teasers and moneyline parlays.

 

Our percentages were down a bit last year, but it was hard to go up after we cleaned up in 2011, winning the prestigious Prediction Tracker title for best record against the spread for our NFL games.  Our ratings are meant to be predictive in nature and not retrodictive, and we use these ratings as a starting point when we make our selections.

 

We did charge for these picks at one time, but in the last few years, we have made these available for free.  Remember, you get what you paid for, so if you have to mortgage your house to cover your losses, it is your fault and not ours.  Truth be told, none of us here ever bet on football games.  Our only wagers in the last ten years have been at horse tracks, where we concentrate on plain, everyday claiming and allowance races—never the big stakes and classics.

 

While we tend to gravitate toward 10 and 13-point sweetheart teasers and moneyline parlays, we also usually have a weekly theme based on certain trends we have noticed.  Obviously, this is the first week of actual games that count in the standings, and we leave preseason NFL games alone.  So, it is difficult to notice any trends.  Well, normally, it is difficult to notice any trends.  However, we have noticed what we believe is a major mistake in the opening games.  It is difficult to find much of a mistake, because smart money usually controls the movement of the lines.  The public usually then moves that line in the wrong direction, and the smarts profit from their ignorance.  Their specialty is playing both sides of a line that has moved by 2 points or more.  With a 10% vigorish, if you play both sides in a moved line, you only need to hit the middle ground one time in 19 to profit.  Here is how it works.

 

Let’s say Oklahoma opens as a 19-point favorite over Kansas.  The smarts believe this line is way too low and takes OU -19 placing truckloads of dough on the Sooners.  The line moves to -21 ½ a couple days later and stays there through Friday night.  Now, the smarts place the same amount of truckloads on Kansas +21 ½.

 

If the spread falls outside the 19 to 21 ½ range, the smarts win one wager and lose one wager.  They lose 10% vig only.  If the spread is exactly 19, then they win one wager and push on the other.  They turn a nice profit.  If the spread is 20 or 21 points (a frequent event), they win both wagers and bleed the books for multiple truckloads.  It is impossible to lose both wagers.  So, the possible results are 2-0, 1-0, and 1-1.  The only possible problem is if the line does not move in the direction they want it to move, and the result is still a 50-50 proposition (either win or lose the single wager).  So, if you want to be a success at this, look at the opening line and look at your favorite games where you believe the line will move.  Play ½ of what you plan to play on that game.  Then, watch that line.  If it moves in the direction you believe and crosses over the number 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13, 14, 17, 20, or 21, then play the other ½ of your amount on the other side

 

We believe we have noticed one line that is off to start the season.  It is not off by enough to play the game straight as a side.  No, where we like this game is in the money line.  Just like keying a horse with multiple horses in an exacta wager, we believe we can key this game with other games in multiple money line parlays.

 

The game in question is Colorado State versus Colorado.  Our ratings show that the Rams are vastly improved this year and should challenge for bowl eligibility under second year coach Jim McElwain.  CU starts over from scratch with new coach Mike MacIntyre.  We believe MacIntyre will turn things around in Boulder, but not in year one.  CSU won this game last year by five, and we believe they are a clear favorite with a 90% chance of winning.  The money line number is CSU -145, CU +125.

 

We only play the money line when we can get the number on the favorite side down to -120 or lower.  Obviously, -145 is too much of a gamble, but if we combine that game with other sure wins up to -1175 will allow us to play a 2-game parlay at -120 or lower.

 

We have chosen six different parlays this week where you can get -120 or better odds using Colorado State as one of the two money line winners.  If you play all six, you are taking a large risk.  We are showing the six that we like. Only choose what you can afford to risk.

 

Our other favorite play, the 13-point sweetheart teaser requires a 4-team parlay where you get to move the line by 13 points in your favor.  In NFL games, we like playing totals this way, but we do not like this philosophy for college games.  What we like for the opening week is the favorite getting an extra 13 points to bring the spread down to a better number and a game underdog getting double digit points in a game where they are no worse than a 7-10 point ‘dog in our eyes.  Any time we can get a 13 ½ point favorite to a ½ point favorite; a 15 ½ point favorite to 2 ½ point favorite; a 5 ½ point favorite to a 7 ½ point underdog; and other games where moving the spread crosses a frequent outcome spread, we give that game extra notice.  If we can take a minor underdog and move it to better than +14, +17, or +21, we give that a lot of notice.  And, when we can take a short favorite and turn them into a double-digit ‘dog, we definitely look at that game, because upsets are rarely by double digits.

 

At the end of this article, we will reveal our official picks (7) for this week.  First, let’s show you the four Colorado State parlays that are not our official picks, but are nevertheless good values in our opinion.  We cannot take the risk of playing six of these, so these are the three that did not make the final cut.

 

1. Colorado State over Colorado and Minnesota over UNLV at +103

2. Colorado State over Colorado and North Carolina St. over Louisiana Tech at +101

3. Colorado State over Colorado and Florida State over Pittsburgh at +111

 

Any of these three games can be wagered and if won will return more money than wagered.  For instance, if you bet $100 on parlay number 1 above, you will win $103 if the parlay wins but lose $100 if it loses.

 

We also take note of the games in which all three of our PiRate Ratings (Regular, Mean, and Bias) are on the same side of the line by 2 or more points difference from that line.

 

14 of this week’s college games meet that criterion

1. Ole Miss -3 vs. Vanderbilt

2. Rutgers +10 vs. Fresno St.

3. Southern Cal -22 ½ vs. Hawaii

4. Michigan State -28 vs. Western Michigan

5. Miami (Fl) -32 ½ vs. Florida Atlantic

6. Buffalo +35 ½ vs. Ohio St.

7. Maryland -20 vs. Florida International

8. Notre Dame -30 vs. Temple

9. BYU +1 vs. Virginia

10. Kentucky -5 vs. Western Kentucky

11. Washington St. +15 ½ vs. Auburn

12. Nebraska -29 vs. Wyoming

13. Washington -4 vs. Boise State

14. Northwestern -6 vs. California

 

If we further a criteria to where the above situation is met plus the total spread of the game is 14 or less points (10 or less if it were NFL), we come up with these six games that meet the criteria

 

1. Ole Miss -3 vs. Vanderbilt

2. Rutgers +10 vs. Fresno St.

3. BYU +1 vs. Virginia

4. Kentucky -5 vs. Western Kentucky

5. Washington -4 vs. Boise St.

6. Northwestern -6 vs. California

 

Okay, now for our official selections this week.  We are going with three money line parlays using Colorado State with another game, and we are going with four 13-point teasers.

 

1. Money Line Parlay at -116

Colorado State over Colorado

Louisville over Ohio U

 

2. Money Line Parlay at -105

Colorado State over Colorado

North Texas over Idaho

 

3. Money Line Parlay at -119

Colorado State over Colorado

Alabama over Virginia Tech

 

4. 13-point Teaser

Minnesota – ½ vs. UNLV

Central Florida -9 vs. Akron

Utah St. +15 ½ vs. Utah

Ole Miss +10 vs. Vanderbilt

 

5. 13-point Teaser

SMU +18 ½ vs. Texas Tech

Maryland -9 vs. Florida Int’l

Notre Dame -16 ½ vs. Temple

Alabama -7 vs. Virginia Tech

 

6. 13-point Teaser

Western Kentucky +18 vs. Kentucky

Marshall -6 ½ vs. Miami (O)

Oklahoma St. + ½ vs. Mississippi St.

Nebraska -16 ½ vs. Wyoming

 

7. 13-point Teaser

Georgia +11 ½ vs. Clemson

LSU +9 vs. TCU

Colorado St. +10 ½ vs. Colorado

Florida St. +2 vs. Pittsburgh

September 13, 2012

PiRate Ratings College & NFL Picks For September 13-16, 2012

PiRate Picks—College Football for September 13-15, 2012

After 6-7 and 4-5 starts, we hope you have taken this advice and not used our college choices with your hard-earned income.  You may have noticed that our Vintage Ratings have done quite well against the spread in the first two weeks, posting a 60%+ accuracy (49-32) in all games.  That’s the rub; nobody can play 40 games a week.  So, that information is useless to us.

 

We will continue with what we think we know and hope what we think is real.  We will go with 11 selections this week—two straight sides, two money line parlays, and seven sweetheart teasers.  To date, the teasers have been winners (62.5% on the 10-pointers).

 

1. Minnesota -2 ½ vs. Western Michigan

 

2. Indiana -2 ½ vs. Ball State

 

We rarely take short favorites and almost always do it only when they are at home against a team from a lesser conference.  Minnesota and Indiana have recent reputations for being really lousy teams.  Western Michigan is a bowl team for sure, while Ball State will struggle to win five or six games.  We are going with the Big Ten schools at home because we feel that both would win 75% of the time on a neutral field against these opponents.  The Gophers and Hoosiers may not have exceptional talent, and their MAC opponents may have better skilled position players.  However, as their games move into the latter parts of the third quarters, the interior lines are going to wear down the smaller teams.  IU and UM have depth in the lines, and by the fourth quarter, we believe Minny will be able to pound the ball down the field and Indy will be able to sting BSU with the short passing game.  We see both Big Ten schools winning by 5-12 points.

 

3. Money Line Parlay @ +101

Purdue over Eastern Michigan

Ohio State over California

Alabama over Arkansas

Mississippi State over Troy

San Jose State over Colorado State

Texas A&M over S M U

 

4. Money Line Parlay @ -113

Virginia Tech over Pittsburgh

Fresno State over Colorado

Boise State over Miami (O)

T C U over Kansas

Central Florida over Florida International

 

5. 10-point Teaser

Rutgers +17 ½ vs. South Florida

Texas A&M – 2 ½ vs. SMU

Virginia Tech Pk vs. Pittsburgh

 

6. 10-point Teaser

Stanford +17 ½ vs. Southern Cal

Ohio State -6 ½ vs. California

Georgia Tech – ½ vs. Virginia

 

7. 10-point Teaser

Ohio U +3 ½ vs. Marshall

San Jose State -1 vs. Colorado State

U T E P -2 ½ vs. New Mexico State

 

8. 13-point Teaser

Navy +18 ½ vs. Penn State

Navy & Penn State UNDER 59

Michigan & Massachusetts OVER 44 ½

Connecticut +10 ½ vs. Maryland

 

9. 13-point Teaser

Southern California & Stanford OVER 43 ½

Stanford +17 ½ vs. Southern California

East Carolina & Southern Mississippi OVER 42

Texas +3 ½ vs. Ole Miss

 

10. 13-point Teaser

T C U -8 vs. Kansas

T C U & Kansas UNDER 72 ½

Minnesota +10 ½ vs. Western Michigan

Texas Tech -20 ½ vs. New Mexico

 

11. 13-point Teaser

Florida +16 vs. Tennessee

Notre Dame +19 vs. Michigan State

Indiana +10 ½ vs. Ball State

Fresno State -1 vs. Colorado

________________________________________________________________________

 

PiRate Picks—NFL for September 13-16, 2012

Our NFL picks for week one were rather disappointing.  Our 15 picks we released went a pathetic 6-9, and our contest picks finished 2-3 with a total loss of net loss of $11,800 in our competition bank account, bringing our funds down to $988,200.  By the way, the rules for this contest are that each selection has to be based on $10,000 stakes.  Our wins were worth $10,000 and $10,800 (winning a money line parlay at +108).

 

Once again, the PiRate Ratings themselves finished much better when picking every game against the spread.  Our opening week finished 10-6.  The Vintage Ratings did even better, going 9-5 (the other two rated games were the same as the Line).

 

It is too early to gauge whether the Vintage Ratings give us a real angle, but since both the College & Pro Vintage Ratings did so well, we will monitor that to see if it is a real trend.

 

This week, we do not really love any of the possible sides.  They are too close to what we think the lines should be.  However, we feel like there is going to be a continued semi-parity, so we find more value in the sweetheart teasers than normal.  Let’s hope we aren’t seeing a mirage.

 

1. 10-point Teaser

Minnesota Pk vs. Indianapolis

New Orleans +7 ½ vs. Carolina

New Orleans & Carolina OVER 41

 

2. 10-point Teaser

Buffalo & Kansas City OVER 35

New York Jets +15 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

San Diego +4 vs. Tennessee

 

3. 13-point Teaser

Chicago +18 ½ vs. Green Bay

New York Giants +5 ½ vs. Tampa Bay

Baltimore +15 ½ vs. Philadelphia

Baltimore & Philadelphia UNDER 59 ½

 

4. 13-point Teaser

Miami +15 ½ vs. Oakland

Oakland +10 ½ vs. Miami

Miami & Oakland OVER 26

Miami & Oakland UNDER 52

 

5. 13-point Teaser

Cleveland & Cincinnati OVER 25 ½

Seattle +16 vs. Dallas

Seattle & Dallas OVER 28 ½

San Diego & Tennessee OVER 30

 

6. 13-point Teaser

St. Louis +16 vs. Washington

St. Louis & Washington UNDER 58 ½

San Francisco & Detroit UNDER 59

Denver +16 vs. Atlanta

 

7. Money Line Parlay @ -118

New York Giants over Tampa Bay

New England over Arizona

San Francisco over Detroit

________________________________________________________________________

 

Here are our contest picks submitted Wednesday, so there are different odds than those above.

 

1. Chicago +7 vs. Green Bay $11,000 to win $10,000

 

2. 10-point Teaser $11,000 to win $10,000

New Orleans + 7 ½ vs. Carolina

Oakland & Miami OVER 29

Houston +3 vs. Jacksonville

 

3. 10-point Teaser $11,000 to win $10,000

N. Y. Jets +15 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

Dallas & Seattle OVER 31 ½

San Diego +4 vs. Tennessee

 

4. 13-point Teaser $12,000 to win $10,000

New England – ½ vs. Arizona

New Orleans & Carolina OVER 38

Baltimore +15 ½ vs. Philadelphia

Cleveland & Cincinnati OVER 25 ½

 

5. 13-point Teaser $12,000 to win $10,000

St. Louis +16 vs. Washington

Tennessee & San Diego OVER 30

San Francisco +6 vs. Detroit

Denver +16 vs. Atlanta

 

September 6, 2012

PiRate Ratings College Picks For Week 2: September 6-8, 2012

Welcome back to week two of the college football season where if you really want to, you can lay 64 ½ points and get Florida State over Savannah State at some books.  We don’t fool with FCS teams, mainly because it isn’t easy to find action on games like that, and we try to emulate reality here.  We want to try to beat the legitimate lines, even if our picks are just for fun.

 

Last week, we were mediocre and finished 6-7-0 with our college selections.  Our teasers finished 4-2-0 and our single $-line parlay won.  We blew it on the straight sides to the tune of 1-5.

 

We are known for our teasers and moneyline parlays, so we are going to stick with those this week.

 

1. Moneyline Parlay @ -106

North Carolina over Wake Forest

Ole Miss over UTEP

Stanford over Duke

 

2. Moneyline Parlay @ -105

Ohio State over Central Florida

Bowling Green over Idaho

LSU over Washington

Indiana over UMass

Michigan over Air Force

Oklahoma State over Arizona

 

3. 10-point Teaser

Utah State +17 ½ vs. Utah

Virginia Pk vs. Penn State

Indiana – ½ vs. UMass

 

4. 10-point Teaser

North Carolina +2 vs. Wake Forest

Notre Dame +24 ½ vs. Purdue

Texas A&M +8 ½ vs. Florida

 

5. 10-point Teaser

Cincinnati & Pittsburgh OVER 39

Air Force & Michigan OVER 51 ½

Notre Dame & Purdue OVER 42

 

6. 13-point Teaser

Bowling Green -3 vs. Idaho

Clemson -14 vs. Ball State

Rice +22 ½ vs. Kansas

Ole Miss +5 ½ vs. UTEP

 

7. 13-point Teaser

Auburn +16 vs. Mississippi State

Texas A&M +11 ½ vs. Florida

Stanford -2 vs. Duke

Oklahoma State – ½ vs. Arizona

 

8. 13-point Teaser

Kentucky & Kent State OVER 30

Georgia & Missouri OVER 42

Iowa & Iowa State UNDER 60

Auburn & Mississippi State OVER 34

 

9. 13-point Teaser

Temple & Maryland UNDER 58 ½

Texas A&M & Florida OVER 39

Stanford & Duke UNDER 71 ½

Illinois & Arizona State OVER 35 ½

 

September 5, 2012

PiRate Ratings NFL Picks for Week 1: September 5-10, 2012

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:31 am

You are looking live at PiRate Pavilion, as the PiRates have been studiously deliberating our opening week picks for the NFL Season.  All of us here agree on one major wagering strategy: DON’T use our recommendations to go broke!

 

With that caveat, if you look at our picks as something fun to read and maybe discuss over a beer with your friends, then you have the correct idea on how best to use these picks.

 

Okay, if you followed our NFL picks last year (and disregarded our college selections or our warning not to follow our advice), you turned a nice profit, as we were correct on 60.8% of our NFL selections.  We don’t have the confidence to clearly state that we can do that again.  We “accidentally” happened to be on the “Sharp Side” of 80% of our selections.  One of us here has a general idea of how the smart players select games based on mathematics as well as actual football data.  Knowing the ins and outs of why sometimes getting 7 ½ points and 10 ½ points make a better play that getting 9 and 13 is just as important as knowing when Team A’s right tackle cannot block Team B’s defensive end.

 

In the past, we have told you about how unscrupulous touts con players into paying exorbitant amounts of money for useless picks.  They give 1,000,000 prospective customers the four weeks of the NFL preseason for free.  In week one, they have a big 4-star play that they claim is so hot that “you could wager on this game as if it has already been played.”  They give 500,000 one side of the game and 500,000 the other side of the game.

 

They note which side was the winning side of the big wager.  In week two, they have a super pick of the week that they guarantee a winner.  Of the 500,000, they give 250,000 one side and 250,000 the other side.

 

This same procedure continues for the next two weeks; 125,000 get one side and 125,000 get the other.  The fourth week, 62,500 get one side and 62,500 get the other.

 

Of course, the players that got the original losing side continue to receive picks and after four weeks, 62,500 went 4-0 following the advice of the touts.  Another 125,000 went 3-1, which at 75% is well above what anybody can do over the course of time.  187,500 people now believe this tout is reliable and a consistent winner.  If 75,000 agree to fork over $120 for the season, the tout has just conned the public out of 9 million dollars.

 

Here are the real hard facts.  The most successful players in the football wagering game consider themselves lucky and fortunate to win 65% of their wagers and are ecstatic to win 62.5%.  Most of the top guys hit on 60% of their wagers.  If they become any more successful than 60%, it becomes close to impossible to find a book that will accept their wagers, unless they are playing the side opposite of the general public and provide insurance for the book.  

 

So, you should be happy if you can win 52.4% of the time.  It isn’t easy.  The sportsbooks want you to win 50% of your wagers.  If you win 45%, they will lose your business in time.  However, at 50%, they will make a 5% profit off you and slowly drain you of your worth over time.  At 50%, the public can see how with just one or two more points, they would have won instead of lost; it is the best hook.

 

Now, to get to the subject at hand, we tend to play underdogs when we see value.  We like to play teasers and moneyline parlays when we can get the parlay under -120.  Most teaser players are big losers because they don’t understand mathematics and statistics.  There is a science behind isolating games where you move the number through certain points.  It takes a few weeks of the season to determine these values, but when you hit upon a season like 2011, when spreads were not wide, you can make a profit playing teasers.  When you see the limits on teasers coming down, you know there is a reason.

 

We decided to split up our college and NFL picks this year, so we will offer a lot more NFL selections.  We do not make 4-star, 3-star, etc. picks.  We believe all of our plays are equal, or else we would not issue them.  We plan on releasing a lot of picks at first, so there is no way you can play them all, and remember, you should not play any based on our selections.  We are using the strategy that we can be right 5 times out of 9 if we select enough games, just like a stock investor would eliminate risk by investing in enough stocks to be diversified.

 

NFL Week One Plays

 

1. Miami +12 ½ vs. Houston

We like double digit dogs at the beginning of the season.  Before a bad team realizes they are really bad, they play their best ball of the season.  We believe the Dolphins have enough defense to contain the Texans just enough to lose by 10 or less.  We’d be much happier at +13 or more, but 12 ½ is still good enough for week one.

 

2. Arizona +3 vs. Seattle

We consider this game a 50-50 tossup, so getting three points throws it in our favor to the tune of about 57-60%.  Of course, we could be wrong, but we feel the Cardinals will win this game outright.

 

3. Pittsburgh +2 vs. Denver

Here again, we believe the wrong team is favored.  Our staff believes the Steelers are the top-rated AFC team to start the season, and Denver is overrated.  Peyton Manning is not defending Ben Roethlisberger.  The Broncos’ defense looked a lot better than it was last year, because Denver’s offense ate the clock and kept the defense off the field. 

 

4. Moneyline Parlay @ +108 (you win $108 for every $100 you wager)

New York Giants over Dallas

Baltimore over Cincinnati

 

5. Moneyline Parlay @ +108

Baltimore over Cincinnati

Chicago over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over Cleveland

 

6. Moneyline Parlay @ -110

Houston over Miami

New Orleans over Washington

Detroit over St. Louis

 

7. Moneyline Parlay @ -116

New York Giants over Dallas

Chicago over Indianapolis

 

8. 10-point Teaser

Chicago +1 vs. Indianapolis

Tennessee +16 vs. New England

Jacksonville +13 ½ vs. Minnesota

 

9. 10-point Teaser

Houston -2 ½ vs. Miami

Kansas City +13 vs. Atlanta

San Francisco +15 vs. Green Bay

 

10. 10-point Teaser

Pittsburgh +12 vs. Denver

Baltimore +4 vs. Cincinnati

San Diego +9 vs. Oakland

 

11. 10-point Teaser

New York Giants & Dallas OVER 34 ½

Chicago & Indianapolis OVER 33

Philadelphia & Cleveland OVER 33 ½

 

12. 10-point Teaser

Buffalo & New York Jets OVER 30 ½

New Orleans & Washington OVER 40

Tennessee & New England OVER 37

 

13. 10-point Teaser

Detroit & St. LOUIS UNDER 55 ½

Atlanta & Kansas City OVER 32

Seattle & Arizona OVER 31

 

14. 13-point Teaser

New York Giants & Dallas OVER 31 ½

Chicago & Indianapolis OVER 30

Philadelphia & Cleveland OVER 30 ½

Buffalo & New York Jets OVER 27 ½

 

15. 13-point Teaser

Tennessee & New England OVER 34

St. Louis & Detroit UNDER 58 ½

Atlanta & Kansas City OVER 29

Seattle & Arizona OVER 28

________________________________________________________________________

 

We are in a fun contest where we were given an imaginary bankroll of $1,000,000 and allowed to wager any type of real wager each week.  Here is how we played those picks.

 

1. Pittsburgh +2 vs. Denver $11,000 to win $10,000

 

2. 13-point Teaser $12,000 to win $10,000

New York Giants + Dallas OVER 31 ½

Philadelphia + Cleveland OVER 30 ½

Buffalo + New York Jets OVER 27 ½

Seattle + Arizona OVER 28

 

3. Moneyline Parlay $10,000 to win $10,800

Baltimore over Cincinnati

Chicago over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over Cleveland

 

4. Moneyline Parlay $10,000 to win $10,800

New York Giants over Dallas

Baltimore over Cincinnati

 

 

5. Moneyline Parlay $11,600 to win $10,000

New York Giants over Dallas

Chicago over Indianapolis

 

Good luck to all, but remember, DO NOT wager your hard-earned money on our selections.  We do not.

December 8, 2011

PiRate Picks For College And Pro Football–December 8-12, 2011

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 3:18 pm

NFL Only This Week

With the Army-Navy game being the only college game this week, we have no play on that one.  So, we are stocking up with seven NFL selections, including tonight’s game at Heinz Field.

 

1. 10-point teaser

Baltimore -6 ½ vs. Indianapolis

Green Bay -1 vs. Oakland

Green Bay & Oakland OVER 41 ½

 

2. 10-point teaser

Detroit +2 vs. Minnesota

New York Jets Pk vs. Kansas City

Denver +6 ½ vs. Chicago

 

3. 13-point teaser

Pittsburgh -1 vs. Cleveland

Pittsburgh & Cleveland OVER 27

Baltimore & Indianapolis OVER 28

Cincinnati +10 vs. Houston

 

4. 13-point teaser

New York Jets & Kansas City OVER 23 ½

New England +5 vs. Washington

New England & Washington UNDER 61

Jacksonville +14 vs. Tampa Bay

 

5. 13-point teaser

Detroit & Minnesota OVER 36 ½

Tennessee +16 ½ vs. New Orleans

Miami +10 vs. Philadelphia

Miami & Philadelphia OVER 32

 

6. 13-point teaser

Carolina +16 vs. Atlanta

Carolina & Atlanta OVER 34

Arizona & San Francisco OVER 27

Chicago & Denver OVER 22 ½

 

7. 13-point teaser

San Diego +6 vs. Buffalo

Dallas +9 ½ vs. New York Giants

New York Giants +16 ½ vs. Dallas

New York Giants & Dallas OVER 36

December 2, 2011

PiRate Picks For College And Pro Football–December 2-5, 2011

This is the last week of regular season college games, so beginning next week, we will limit our selections until the bowls kick off.  For this college regular season finale, we are going to rely on three money line parlays, since they have been successful for us this year.  We will add one 13-point teaser to the mix.

 

As far as the NFL goes, we cleaned up on the 13-point teasers last week, and we will go with two more in addition to a 10-point teaser.

 

1. Money Line Parlay (4 teams @ -104)

Pittsburgh over Syracuse

Nevada over Idaho

B Y U over Hawaii

Arkansas State over Troy

 

It appears to us as though Syracuse ran out of steam at the end of October.  As for Pitt, the Panthers either win this game or stay home for the holidays.  We see Coach Graham getting his troops motivated to get the job done.

 

Nevada has limped home in November, but the Wolfpack get a relative patsy for senior day in Reno.  Nevada’s pistol offense should fire into the end zone several times.

 

We are going against the chalk in Honolulu.  Hawaii must win to become bowl eligible, while BYU has already accepted their bowl invitation.  However, we believe the Cougars will dominate this game with superior talent and depth.

 

 

2. Money Line Parlay (3 teams @ -130)

Houston over Southern Mississippi

Oregon over U C L A

Wyoming over Colorado State

 

Houston benefits from hosting the CUSA Championship Game.  All eyes will be on Case Keenum, as he contends for the Heisman Trophy.  A Houston win more than likely sends the Cougars to the Sugar Bowl if LSU beats Georgia.  While Cougar coach Kevin Sumlin is probably headed to greener pastures after this season, we do not expect it to play a major role in this game; Southern Miss coach Larry Fedora is in the same boat; he could become the next coach at Ole Miss or somewhere else, so the coaching rumors are a wash.

 

UCLA would be expected to play inspired ball and send Coach Rick Neuheisel out of Westwood with a Rose Bowl Game.  However, there is too much superior Duck talent to overcome.  We expect the Bruins to play their best game of the year, but they will come up short.

 

To those outside of the Rockies, you may not appreciate the rivalry between Colorado State and Wyoming.  I’ve seen these two go at it in football and basketball, and in its own way, this rivalry is as fierce as the Red Sox and Yankees, Duke and North Carolina basketball, and the Iron Bowl.  Wyoming is bowl-bound, while CSU could be coach-hunting.  The Rams will be fired up to try to save Coach Steve Fairchild’s job, but like UCLA, they just don’t have the talent to pull it off.

 

3. Money Line Parlay (3 teams @ -114)

L S U over Georgia

North Texas over Middle Tennessee

Nevada over Idaho

 

The big talk all week in the South and elsewhere has been about Georgia upsetting LSU to earn the SEC three BCS Bowl bids.  The Bulldogs would earn the automatic bid to the Sugar Bowl, while Alabama moves to first and LSU falls to second, forcing them to play in the National Championship Game.  Well, we just don’t see it happening, even if the Bulldogs get to play this game in their de facto home of Atlanta.  L S U is at least 14-25 points better than Georgia, and we would not be surprised if the Tigers decided to make a statement and run up the score.

 

North Texas was close to returning to respectability this season.  The Mean Green were not that far away from winning six or seven games this year.  As for Middle Tennessee, their season went downhill after they blew the opening game at Purdue, a game they should have won.  They have failed to show up in their November games, and we expect them to mail this one in.

 

We are using Nevada in a second parlay only to bring the odds down under -130, since we only play money line parlays at the same or better odds than a 13-point, 4-team teaser.  We consider it our safe game.

 

4. 13-point Teaser

Northern Illinois & Ohio U UNDER 84

Connecticut +22 ½ vs. Cincinnati

Oklahoma +16 vs. Oklahoma State

Boise State & New Mexico OVER 49

 

Ohio has played 12 games this season, and in none of them were the total points over 80.  While Northern Illinois is probably the best offensive team the Bobcats will have faced, we believe both teams will be a little tight for the first 15 to 25 minutes of this game.  We see this one ending in the 35-24 range, which is 25 points under 84.

 

Cincinnati no longer has BCS bowl hopes, with West Virginia eliminating the Bearcats last night.  The Bearcats will more than likely replace CUSA champion Houston in the Liberty Bowl, and the results of this game will not matter.  Connecticut is playing for bowl eligibility, and the Huskies will keep this game close and even have a chance to win outright.

 

The Sooners have the opportunity to do something very few OU teams have ever done—sneak up on their rivals from Stillwater.  It has been a foregone conclusion this week in the national media that Oklahoma State still has a chance to earn a trip to the National Championship Game if they really do a number on the Sooners.  Well, Oklahoma isn’t exactly chopped liver!  We have a sneaky suspicion that they will shock the Cowboys and pull off the upset.  Even if they don’t, we see OU staying within 14 points.

 

This final pick may look odd to you.  This is our reasoning.  Boise is actually favored by 48 ½ points, so the oddsmakers believe they will score 48 or 49 points minimum.  Because Coach Chris Petersen will empty the bench and let a lot of senior reserves and other reserves play a good chunk of the second half, we expect the Lobos to score at least 10 to 14 points in this game.  So, if Boise scores just 42 points and gives up 10, it suffices for us.

 

5. 10-point NFL Teaser

Tennessee & Buffalo OVER 33

Atlanta +7 vs. Houston

Denver +11 ½ vs. Minnesota

 

The Bills and Titans are two run-of-the-mill, average teams.  Neither team’s offense will set the woods on fire, but neither team’s defense will shut down the other’s offense.  We are looking at a typical, average NFL game with a 24-21 outcome, or 12 points more than 33.

 

Even with a healthy Matt Schaub or Matt Leinart, Houston and Atlanta would be a tossup game.  Without either quarterback, we cannot see the Texans earning their ninth win of the season.  They have a two-game lead in their division, while Atlanta is basically in a must-win situation the rest of the way.  Look for a Falcons road win this week.

 

How can a hapless Vikings team defeat the invincible Superman Tim Tebow and do it without Adrian Peterson?  How can they do it by 12 points?  ‘nuf ced.

 

6. 13-point NFL Teaser

Tenneessee +14 ½ vs. Buffalo

Kansas City +20 vs. Chicago

Miami +10 vs. Oakland

Miami & Oakland OVER 30

 

Read above for why we are going with the Titans at +14 ½ against the Bills.  We believe that these teams could play 10 times and none of the outcomes would be by that many points.

 

Chicago should beat Kansas City, even without Jay Cutler, but the Bears will play more conservatively and keep the score down.  Add possible inclement weather, and we see the Bears winning 24-14.

 

If the Season had begun three weeks ago, Miami might have been the odds-on favorite to earn a Wildcard bid.  However, their 0-7 start made that a moot point.  Nevertheless, playing at home, the Dolphins are good enough to beat Oakland 75% of the time, and of the 25% losses, we see 95% of those would be by single digits.  That’s good enough for us.  We believe this game will see both teams top 17 points, with the winner probably topping 24, so we love the totals as well.

 

7. 13-point NFL Teaser

New York Jets +10 vs. Washington

New Orleans +4 vs. Detroit

San Francisco – ½ vs. St. Louis

New England -7 vs. Indianapolis

 

Washington is the type of team Rex Ryan loves to play against.  His defense can bully the Redskins, while his offense keeps it close to the vest and grinds out enough yards to come up with 20-24 points.  The Jets should win by a score similar to 23-10.

 

New Orleans and Detroit are teams headed in opposite directions.  The Saints may be strong enough at the present time to upend Green Bay, while Detroit discovered that the Packers are their daddy.  Look for the Saints to Stomp on the Lions this week.

 

We love teasing a double-digit favorite to ½ point, because it only requires them to win the game.  A one-point win on a last-second field goal is adequate enough.  We see no chance for the Rams to win on the road this week.

 

Normally, we would never tease a 20-point favorite to a touchdown.  It goes against all logical teaser strategies.  However, we are talking about the best team in the AFC against the worst team in all of North American professional football.  Every CFL team could beat this year’s Colts, so the best team in the AFC should be expected to beat them by at least eight points.  They could win 59-7!

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