The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 30, 2013

PiRate Ratings Super Bowl XLVII Preview

Super Bowl XLVII

Teams: Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers

Date: Sunday, February 3, 2013

Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA

Kickoff: 6:30 PM EST

Television: CBS

Radio: Sirius XM & Dial Global Radio Network

 

 

Tale of the Tape

 

Results

Baltimore (13-6-0)

Opponent

Bal

Opp

Cincinnati

44

13

at Philadelphia

23

24

New England

31

30

Cleveland

23

16

at Kansas City

9

6

Dallas

31

29

at Houston

13

43

at Cleveland

25

15

Oakland

55

20

at Pittsburgh

13

10

at San Diego

16

13 ot

Pittsburgh

20

23

at Washington

28

31 ot

Denver

17

34

N. Y. Giants

33

14

at Cincinnati

17

23

Playoffs

 

 

Indianapolis

24

9

at Denver

38

35  2ot

at New England

28

13

 

San Francisco (13-4-1)

Opponent

SF

Opp

at Green Bay

30

22

Detroit

27

19

at Minnesota

13

24

at N. Y. Jets

34

0

Buffalo

45

3

N. Y. Giants

3

26

Seattle

13

6

at Arizona

24

3

St. Louis

24

24 ot

Chicago

32

7

at New Orleans

31

21

at St. Louis

13

16 ot

Miami

27

13

at New England

41

34

at Seattle

13

42

Arizona

27

13

Playoffs

 

 

Green Bay

45

31

at Atlanta

28

24

 

Statistics

Passing

Baltimore

NAME

ATT

COMP

PCT

YDS

YD/ATT

YDS/G

TD

INT

SACKS

Joe Flacco

531

317

59.7

3817

7.2

224.4

22

10

35

 

San Francisco

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Colin Kaepernick

218

136

62.4

1814

8.3

130.9

10

3

16

Alex Smith

218

153

70.2

1737

8

160

13

6

24

 

Receiving

Baltimore

NAME

REC

YDS

AVG

TD

LONG

YDS/G

YAC

Anquan Boldin

65

921

14.2

4

43

61.4

238

Torrey Smith

49

855

17.4

8

54

53.4

238

Dennis Pitta

61

669

11

7

61

41.8

264

Ray Rice

61

478

7.8

1

43

29.9

452

Jacoby Jones

30

406

13.5

1

47

25.4

102

 

San Francisco

NAME

REC

YDS

AVG

TD

LONG

YDS/G

YAC

Michael Crabtree

85

1105

13

9

49

69.1

465

Vernon Davis

41

548

13.4

5

53

34.3

173

Mario Manningham

42

449

10.7

1

40

37.4

183

Randy Moss

28

434

15.5

3

55

27.1

74

Delanie Walker

21

344

16.4

3

45

21.5

59

Frank Gore

28

234

8.4

1

26

14.6

210

 

Rushing

Baltimore

NAME

ATT

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

YDS/G

FUM

LOST

Ray Rice

257

1143

4.4

46

9

71.4

1

0

Bernard Pierce

108

532

4.9

78

1

33.3

0

0

 

San Francisco

NAME

ATT

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

YDS/G

FUM

LOST

Frank Gore

258

1214

4.7

37

8

75.9

2

1

Colin Kaepernick

63

415

6.6

50

5

31.9

7

2

Kendall Hunter

72

371

5.2

26

2

33.7

0

0

 

Kicking

Baltimore

NAME

XPM

XPA

FGM

FGA

PCT

LONG

1-19

20-29

30-39

40-49

50+

PTS

Justin Tucker

42

42

30

33

90.9

56

0-0

8-8

8-8

10-13

4-4

132

 

San Francisco

NAME

XPM

XPA

FGM

FGA

PCT

LONG

1-19

20-29

30-39

40-49

50+

PTS

David Akers

44

44

29

42

69.0

63

1-1

8-9

11-13

7-13

2-6

131

 

Punting

Baltimore

NAME

PUNTS

YDS

LONG

AVG

NET

BLK

IN-20

TB

FC

% RET

R-AVG

Sam Koch

83

3911

60

47.1

40.8

0

28

7

13

59

7.8

 

San Francisco

NAME

PUNTS

YDS

LONG

AVG

NET

BLK

IN-20

TB

FC

% RET

R-AVG

Andy Lee

67

3226

66

48.1

43.2

0

36

4

18

53.7

6.9

 

Kick Returns

Baltimore

NAME

KR

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

Jacoby Jones

38

1167

30.7

108

2

Deonte Thompson

15

389

25.9

49

0

 

San Francisco

NAME

KR

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

LaMichael James

14

417

29.8

62

0

Kyle Williams

13

353

27.2

94

0

Ted Ginn

11

253

23

31

0

 

Punt Returns

Baltimore

NAME

PR

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

FC

Jacoby Jones

37

341

9.2

63

1

16

 

San Francisco

NAME

PR

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

FC

Ted Ginn

32

326

10.2

38

0

12

 

Depth Charts

When Baltimore Has The Ball

Baltimore Offense  
Pos

No.

Name
WR

81

Anquan Boldin
LT

74

Michael Oher
LG

73

Marshal Yanda
C

77

Matt Birk
RG

63

Bobbie Williams
RT

72

Kelechi Osemele
TE

88

Dennis Pitta
WR

82

Torrey Smith
QB

5

Joe Flacco
RB

27

Ray Rice
FB

44

Vonta Leach
TE2

86

Billy Bajema
WR3

12

Jacoby Jones

 

San Francisco Defense
Pos

No.

Name
LE

91

Ray McDonald
NT

90

Isaac Sopoaga
RE

94

Justin Smith
LOLB

55

Ahmad Brooks
LILB

53

NaVorro Bowman
RILB

52

Patrick Willis
ROLB

99

Aldon Smith
LCB

22

Carlos Rogers
RCB

25

Tarell Brown
SS

31

Donte Whitner
FS

38

Dashon Goldson
5₵

29

Chris Culliver
10₵

20

Perrish Cox

 

When San Francisco Has The Ball

San Francisco Offense
Pos

No.

Name
WR

15

Michael Crabtree
LT

74

Joe Staley
LG

77

Mike Iupati
C

59

Jonathan Goodwin
RG

75

Alex Boone
RT

76

Anthony Davis
TE

85

Vernon Davis
WR

84

Randy Moss
QB

7

Colin Kaepernick
RB

21

Frank Gore
FB

49

Bruce Miller
TE2

46

Delanie Walker
WR3

19

Ted Ginn

 

Baltimore Defense  
Pos

No.

Name
LE

90

Pernell McPhee
NT

96

Ma’ake Kemoeatu
RE

92

Haloti Ngata
LOLB

91

Courtney Upshaw
LILB

52

Ray Lewis
RILB

49

Josh Bynes
ROLB

50

Albert McClellan
LCB

24

Corey Graham
RCB

29

Cary Williams
SS

32

James Ihedigbo
FS

20

Ed Reed
5₵

23

Chykie Brown
10₵

22

Jimmy Smith

 

Special Teams

Baltimore

Pos

No.

Name
K

9

Justin Tucker
P

4

Sam Koch
KR

12

Jacoby Jones
PR

12

Jacoby Jones

 

San Francisco

Pos

No.

Name
K

2

David Akers
P

4

Andy Lee
KR

19

Ted Ginn
PR

19

Ted Ginn

 

100 Simulations

Wins

San Francisco 57  Baltimore 43 (5 Simulations Decided by Overtime)

 

Average Score

San Francisco 25.53  Baltimore 22.91

 

Standard Deviation

13.44

 

Outliers

San Francisco 38  Baltimore 12

Baltimore 35  San Francisco 10

 

Selection Information

Line: San Francisco by 3 ½

 

Totals: 47 ½

 

Money Line: San Francisco -175  Baltimore +155

 

Computer Ratings

PiRate: San Francisco by 3.8

 

PiRate Mean: San Francisco by 3.4

 

PiRate Bias: San Francisco by 4.2

 

PiRate Vintage: San Francisco by 2.0

 

PICKS

The PiRate Playoff Picks are 12-5-0 against the spread this year for 70.6%.  We could play use multiple selections and still be playing with house money, but we are a bit too conservative for this.  The simulations show this game to be rather risky with one of the highest standard deviations ever for a Super Bowl.

 

Our tendency is to select the underdog when the game looks like a wild one in the making.  Also, we tend to believe that the first half will be lower scoring than the second half.  If you play exotics, like halftime lines, then you might find value there.  We do not like these gimmick selections.

 

We can do one thing that sounds reasonable, and that is to believe this game will be relatively close and will stay within certain boundaries.  If we go with a 13-point Teaser with both sides and both totals, we can hope for a close game that is neither overly high-scoring or low-scoring.  Making just one selection guarantees we will be 66.7% at the worst for the playoffs and possibly 72.2% if we win.

 

Normally, we would run away from a 13-point teaser when the line is 3 ½ and the Total is 47 ½, because these are bad numbers to tease.  However, in most of our models, we see both teams scoring between 20 and 30 points, and that gives this selection a strong chance in our eyes.

 

 

13-point Teaser Pick For Super Bowl

 

4-selection parlay

San Francisco +9 ½

Baltimore +16 ½

OVER 34 ½

UNDER 60 ½

 

Advertisements

Blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: