Super Bowl XLVII
Teams: Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
Date: Sunday, February 3, 2013
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: 6:30 PM EST
Television: CBS
Radio: Sirius XM & Dial Global Radio Network
Tale of the Tape
Results
Baltimore (13-6-0)
| Opponent |
Bal |
Opp |
| Cincinnati |
44 |
13 |
| at Philadelphia |
23 |
24 |
| New England |
31 |
30 |
| Cleveland |
23 |
16 |
| at Kansas City |
9 |
6 |
| Dallas |
31 |
29 |
| at Houston |
13 |
43 |
| at Cleveland |
25 |
15 |
| Oakland |
55 |
20 |
| at Pittsburgh |
13 |
10 |
| at San Diego |
16 |
13 ot |
| Pittsburgh |
20 |
23 |
| at Washington |
28 |
31 ot |
| Denver |
17 |
34 |
| N. Y. Giants |
33 |
14 |
| at Cincinnati |
17 |
23 |
| Playoffs |
|
|
| Indianapolis |
24 |
9 |
| at Denver |
38 |
35 2ot |
| at New England |
28 |
13 |
San Francisco (13-4-1)
| Opponent |
SF |
Opp |
| at Green Bay |
30 |
22 |
| Detroit |
27 |
19 |
| at Minnesota |
13 |
24 |
| at N. Y. Jets |
34 |
0 |
| Buffalo |
45 |
3 |
| N. Y. Giants |
3 |
26 |
| Seattle |
13 |
6 |
| at Arizona |
24 |
3 |
| St. Louis |
24 |
24 ot |
| Chicago |
32 |
7 |
| at New Orleans |
31 |
21 |
| at St. Louis |
13 |
16 ot |
| Miami |
27 |
13 |
| at New England |
41 |
34 |
| at Seattle |
13 |
42 |
| Arizona |
27 |
13 |
| Playoffs |
|
|
| Green Bay |
45 |
31 |
| at Atlanta |
28 |
24 |
Statistics
Passing
| Baltimore
NAME |
ATT |
COMP |
PCT |
YDS |
YD/ATT |
YDS/G |
TD |
INT |
SACKS |
| Joe Flacco |
531 |
317 |
59.7 |
3817 |
7.2 |
224.4 |
22 |
10 |
35 |
|
San Francisco |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Colin Kaepernick |
218 |
136 |
62.4 |
1814 |
8.3 |
130.9 |
10 |
3 |
16 |
| Alex Smith |
218 |
153 |
70.2 |
1737 |
8 |
160 |
13 |
6 |
24 |
Receiving
Baltimore
| NAME |
REC |
YDS |
AVG |
TD |
LONG |
YDS/G |
YAC |
| Anquan Boldin |
65 |
921 |
14.2 |
4 |
43 |
61.4 |
238 |
| Torrey Smith |
49 |
855 |
17.4 |
8 |
54 |
53.4 |
238 |
| Dennis Pitta |
61 |
669 |
11 |
7 |
61 |
41.8 |
264 |
| Ray Rice |
61 |
478 |
7.8 |
1 |
43 |
29.9 |
452 |
| Jacoby Jones |
30 |
406 |
13.5 |
1 |
47 |
25.4 |
102 |
San Francisco
| NAME |
REC |
YDS |
AVG |
TD |
LONG |
YDS/G |
YAC |
| Michael Crabtree |
85 |
1105 |
13 |
9 |
49 |
69.1 |
465 |
| Vernon Davis |
41 |
548 |
13.4 |
5 |
53 |
34.3 |
173 |
| Mario Manningham |
42 |
449 |
10.7 |
1 |
40 |
37.4 |
183 |
| Randy Moss |
28 |
434 |
15.5 |
3 |
55 |
27.1 |
74 |
| Delanie Walker |
21 |
344 |
16.4 |
3 |
45 |
21.5 |
59 |
| Frank Gore |
28 |
234 |
8.4 |
1 |
26 |
14.6 |
210 |
Rushing
Baltimore
| NAME |
ATT |
YDS |
AVG |
LONG |
TD |
YDS/G |
FUM |
LOST |
| Ray Rice |
257 |
1143 |
4.4 |
46 |
9 |
71.4 |
1 |
0 |
| Bernard Pierce |
108 |
532 |
4.9 |
78 |
1 |
33.3 |
0 |
0 |
San Francisco
| NAME |
ATT |
YDS |
AVG |
LONG |
TD |
YDS/G |
FUM |
LOST |
| Frank Gore |
258 |
1214 |
4.7 |
37 |
8 |
75.9 |
2 |
1 |
| Colin Kaepernick |
63 |
415 |
6.6 |
50 |
5 |
31.9 |
7 |
2 |
| Kendall Hunter |
72 |
371 |
5.2 |
26 |
2 |
33.7 |
0 |
0 |
Kicking
Baltimore
| NAME |
XPM |
XPA |
FGM |
FGA |
PCT |
LONG |
1-19 |
20-29 |
30-39 |
40-49 |
50+ |
PTS |
| Justin Tucker |
42 |
42 |
30 |
33 |
90.9 |
56 |
0-0 |
8-8 |
8-8 |
10-13 |
4-4 |
132 |
San Francisco
| NAME |
XPM |
XPA |
FGM |
FGA |
PCT |
LONG |
1-19 |
20-29 |
30-39 |
40-49 |
50+ |
PTS |
| David Akers |
44 |
44 |
29 |
42 |
69.0 |
63 |
1-1 |
8-9 |
11-13 |
7-13 |
2-6 |
131 |
Punting
Baltimore
| NAME |
PUNTS |
YDS |
LONG |
AVG |
NET |
BLK |
IN-20 |
TB |
FC |
% RET |
R-AVG |
| Sam Koch |
83 |
3911 |
60 |
47.1 |
40.8 |
0 |
28 |
7 |
13 |
59 |
7.8 |
San Francisco
| NAME |
PUNTS |
YDS |
LONG |
AVG |
NET |
BLK |
IN-20 |
TB |
FC |
% RET |
R-AVG |
| Andy Lee |
67 |
3226 |
66 |
48.1 |
43.2 |
0 |
36 |
4 |
18 |
53.7 |
6.9 |
Kick Returns
Baltimore
| NAME |
KR |
YDS |
AVG |
LONG |
TD |
| Jacoby Jones |
38 |
1167 |
30.7 |
108 |
2 |
| Deonte Thompson |
15 |
389 |
25.9 |
49 |
0 |
San Francisco
| NAME |
KR |
YDS |
AVG |
LONG |
TD |
| LaMichael James |
14 |
417 |
29.8 |
62 |
0 |
| Kyle Williams |
13 |
353 |
27.2 |
94 |
0 |
| Ted Ginn |
11 |
253 |
23 |
31 |
0 |
Punt Returns
Baltimore
| NAME |
PR |
YDS |
AVG |
LONG |
TD |
FC |
| Jacoby Jones |
37 |
341 |
9.2 |
63 |
1 |
16 |
San Francisco
| NAME |
PR |
YDS |
AVG |
LONG |
TD |
FC |
| Ted Ginn |
32 |
326 |
10.2 |
38 |
0 |
12 |
Depth Charts
When Baltimore Has The Ball
| Baltimore Offense | ||
| Pos |
No. |
Name |
| WR |
81 |
Anquan Boldin |
| LT |
74 |
Michael Oher |
| LG |
73 |
Marshal Yanda |
| C |
77 |
Matt Birk |
| RG |
63 |
Bobbie Williams |
| RT |
72 |
Kelechi Osemele |
| TE |
88 |
Dennis Pitta |
| WR |
82 |
Torrey Smith |
| QB |
5 |
Joe Flacco |
| RB |
27 |
Ray Rice |
| FB |
44 |
Vonta Leach |
| TE2 |
86 |
Billy Bajema |
| WR3 |
12 |
Jacoby Jones |
| San Francisco Defense | ||
| Pos |
No. |
Name |
| LE |
91 |
Ray McDonald |
| NT |
90 |
Isaac Sopoaga |
| RE |
94 |
Justin Smith |
| LOLB |
55 |
Ahmad Brooks |
| LILB |
53 |
NaVorro Bowman |
| RILB |
52 |
Patrick Willis |
| ROLB |
99 |
Aldon Smith |
| LCB |
22 |
Carlos Rogers |
| RCB |
25 |
Tarell Brown |
| SS |
31 |
Donte Whitner |
| FS |
38 |
Dashon Goldson |
| 5₵ |
29 |
Chris Culliver |
| 10₵ |
20 |
Perrish Cox |
When San Francisco Has The Ball
| San Francisco Offense | ||
| Pos |
No. |
Name |
| WR |
15 |
Michael Crabtree |
| LT |
74 |
Joe Staley |
| LG |
77 |
Mike Iupati |
| C |
59 |
Jonathan Goodwin |
| RG |
75 |
Alex Boone |
| RT |
76 |
Anthony Davis |
| TE |
85 |
Vernon Davis |
| WR |
84 |
Randy Moss |
| QB |
7 |
Colin Kaepernick |
| RB |
21 |
Frank Gore |
| FB |
49 |
Bruce Miller |
| TE2 |
46 |
Delanie Walker |
| WR3 |
19 |
Ted Ginn |
| Baltimore Defense | ||
| Pos |
No. |
Name |
| LE |
90 |
Pernell McPhee |
| NT |
96 |
Ma’ake Kemoeatu |
| RE |
92 |
Haloti Ngata |
| LOLB |
91 |
Courtney Upshaw |
| LILB |
52 |
Ray Lewis |
| RILB |
49 |
Josh Bynes |
| ROLB |
50 |
Albert McClellan |
| LCB |
24 |
Corey Graham |
| RCB |
29 |
Cary Williams |
| SS |
32 |
James Ihedigbo |
| FS |
20 |
Ed Reed |
| 5₵ |
23 |
Chykie Brown |
| 10₵ |
22 |
Jimmy Smith |
Special Teams
Baltimore
| Pos |
No. |
Name |
| K |
9 |
Justin Tucker |
| P |
4 |
Sam Koch |
| KR |
12 |
Jacoby Jones |
| PR |
12 |
Jacoby Jones |
San Francisco
| Pos |
No. |
Name |
| K |
2 |
David Akers |
| P |
4 |
Andy Lee |
| KR |
19 |
Ted Ginn |
| PR |
19 |
Ted Ginn |
100 Simulations
Wins
San Francisco 57 Baltimore 43 (5 Simulations Decided by Overtime)
Average Score
San Francisco 25.53 Baltimore 22.91
Standard Deviation
13.44
Outliers
San Francisco 38 Baltimore 12
Baltimore 35 San Francisco 10
Selection Information
Line: San Francisco by 3 ½
Totals: 47 ½
Money Line: San Francisco -175 Baltimore +155
Computer Ratings
PiRate: San Francisco by 3.8
PiRate Mean: San Francisco by 3.4
PiRate Bias: San Francisco by 4.2
PiRate Vintage: San Francisco by 2.0
PICKS
The PiRate Playoff Picks are 12-5-0 against the spread this year for 70.6%. We could play use multiple selections and still be playing with house money, but we are a bit too conservative for this. The simulations show this game to be rather risky with one of the highest standard deviations ever for a Super Bowl.
Our tendency is to select the underdog when the game looks like a wild one in the making. Also, we tend to believe that the first half will be lower scoring than the second half. If you play exotics, like halftime lines, then you might find value there. We do not like these gimmick selections.
We can do one thing that sounds reasonable, and that is to believe this game will be relatively close and will stay within certain boundaries. If we go with a 13-point Teaser with both sides and both totals, we can hope for a close game that is neither overly high-scoring or low-scoring. Making just one selection guarantees we will be 66.7% at the worst for the playoffs and possibly 72.2% if we win.
Normally, we would run away from a 13-point teaser when the line is 3 ½ and the Total is 47 ½, because these are bad numbers to tease. However, in most of our models, we see both teams scoring between 20 and 30 points, and that gives this selection a strong chance in our eyes.
13-point Teaser Pick For Super Bowl
4-selection parlay
San Francisco +9 ½
Baltimore +16 ½
OVER 34 ½
UNDER 60 ½
The Pi-Rate Ratings 