The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 12, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 13-17, 2016

Replayicide

A third consecutive winning week was practically in the bag thanks to a great Sunday comeback. Yes, a terrific 84.7% return on our investment was ours, as Joe Flacco guided the Baltimore Ravens on a fourth quarter comeback to defeat the Washington Redskins, allowing the PiRates to cash in on a really nice +199 parlay.

As Lee Corso says, “Not so fast my friends.” All scoring plays are reviewed. Breshad Perriman appeared to have both feet inbounds in real time with his heel of his second foot hitting green turf, but the instant replay told a different story, and by the distance of a few blades of grass, a big payoff turned into a 15% loss on our investment. Oh well, at least they are imaginary dollars, so we didn’t really lose anything but a little self-pride.

One good thing about doing this exercise just for fun is that you don’t become gun shy when you miss on a big payoff like this, and you don’t have to worry about trying to catch up after a loss or sustain any success; you just select the next week’s games as if the new week is in a vacuum.
We have chosen four new selections this week, three from college and one NFL. This is a strange season for the NFL, so we are lessening our amount of pro plays.

Enjoy these selections, but remember, we highly encourage you not to use them to wager real coin, currency, or plastic on them.

October 13-17, 2016

1. College Parlay @ +157
Idaho over New Mexico St.
Marshall over Florida Atlantic
Florida over Missouri
Georgia over Vanderbilt

We like the job Paul Petrino has done at Idaho and expect the Vandals to win in the Palouse this week; considering that this program has announced that they will leave FBS football to return to FCS and the Big Sky Conference in 2018, Petrino could be on the radar screen of other FBS schools should Idaho make it to 6-6 or better this year. Maybe, this year is their last-gasp effort to sneak into a bowl for the first and possibly last time since 2009 and only the third time ever. Here’s a bit of trivia for you: Idaho was once a member of what is the Pac-12 Conference today. From1922 to 1959, the Vandals were in the same league as USC, UCLA, Cal, Oregon, and Stanford. The Idaho-Washington St. rivalry remains strong since the two schools are within walking distance of each other.

Marshall is off to its weakest start in the Doc Holliday tenure, but the Herd should begin to thunder this week against FAU. The Owls lost at Charlotte last week, and Coach Charlie Partridge will be doing his cooing from another pear tree next year.

Florida and Missouri both had last Saturday off, with the Gators’ bye week coming unexpectedly. The good news for Florida was that by watching the most recent game film of the team they were supposed to play last week (LSU), they just happened to watch this week’s opponent. We think the Gators win a rather dull, low-scoring affair in the 14-10 range.

Georgia has not looked brilliant for 60 minutes in any game this year, but even playing 20 minutes brilliantly this week should be enough to win over a Vanderbilt team that is “0 for” on the road in the SEC under Coach Derek Mason and has no passing game.

2. College Parlay @ +192
Arkansas St. over South Alabama
Ohio St. over Wisconsin
Ball St. over Buffalo
Memphis over Tulane

Arkansas State might replicate what Texas A&M did in 1967. The Red Wolves began the season 0-4 and could run the table after that start. South Alabama is a team that gets up for big-time opponents and seems to not show up against opponents not considered big-time.

Wisconsin’s incredibly difficult schedule is about to come down hard in Badgerland. After losing at Michigan, we expect Ohio State to make the home team fans a bit sad as they exit Camp Randall Stadium Saturday. There is an issue of team speed in this game, and UW will eventually succumb to it.

Ball State is on the cusp of being a rather decent team in MAC football, but they are not there yet. However, this Buffalo team is at the bottom of the league, and they lost at home to Kent State last week. The Cardinals look to pick up their biggest point differential win of the season.

Memphis will have a tough time in New Orleans on Saturday, as Tulane is one of those pesky teams that opponents do not enjoy playing. First-year Green Wave coach Willie Fritz is known for his unique style of multiple option running and play-action passing plays, and his offense is eating up the clock with a true freshman quarterback guiding it, but it is the TU defense that is really getting the job done. It just goes to show that the best defense in football is a good time-consuming offense. Still, it is asking a bit too much to expect a green Green Wave squad to upset a team that thinks they can now win the West Division of the AAC.

3. College Parlay @ +172
Florida Int’l. over Charlotte
Ohio U over Eastern Michigan
BYU over Mississippi St.

Ron Turner has been in this boat before. When he coached at Illinois, Turner endured some lean seasons with just two wins, before surprising the nation with a trip to the Rose Bowl and upset of top-ranked Ohio State. Turner has slowly improved FIU from one to four to five wins in his three years in Miami, and the Panthers now could contend for a minor bowl. In order to do so, they have to beat a Charlotte team that just gained a little confidence with their first ever CUSA win last week. We expect FIU to win by at least 10-14 points.

Frank Solich has the Ohio Bobcats in the driver’s seat to win the MAC East this year, as his chief competition, Akron, has a tougher conference schedule, and the season finale between the two is in Athens. The Bobcats respect this EMU team, because this Eagles’ team is 4-2 and thinks it is going to win two more games this year. It was a tough choice, but we sided with OU in this game.

Mississippi State appears to be the 13th best team in the SEC this year, and the Bulldogs already have a home out-of-conference loss to South Alabama. Having to travel to Utah to face a BYU team that is about two touchdowns better today than they were at the start of the season means another loss for the SEC school.

4. NFL Parlay @ +220
New England over Cincinnati
Buffalo over San Francisco
Oakland over Kansas City

Do you expect Tom Brady to lose to anybody in his home debut? We’d go with the Pats to beat the NFC Pro Bowl team this week. Cincinnati could be out of the playoff race after this week, and Marvin Lewis could be in jeopardy of losing his job if the Bengals fall to third in the AFC North.

San Francisco must travel almost 3,000 to the Ontario border to face a mean Buffalo team that has turned things around since their Monday Night debacle against the Jets. Colin Kaepernick will get his first start, and we would not be surprised if subconsciously, the officials see an extra penalty here or there that costs the 49ers a crucial first down. Rex Ryan can sniff playoffs with this Bills’ team. It’s been a very long dry spell for Buffalo, even longer than the Raiders’ dry spell, and a win Sunday puts Buffalo at 4-2.

If you haven’t read our NFL preview from Tuesday, you should read what we had to write about the Oakland – Kansas City rivalry.

Link: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2016/10/11/nfl-ratings-and-spreads-for-week-5-october-13-17-2016/

This game promises to be one of the best between these two franchises since the old Daryle Lamonica vs. Len Dawson days. The game even shapes up to play like it was from 1968–Oakland has the wide-open high-octane offense and some big play defensive stars, while Kansas City has the better ball-control offense to go with a top-flight defense. All that will be missing is the odd characters like Ben Davidson, Buck Buchanan, Fred Williamson, and Fred Biletnikoff, who wore shoulder pads about as thick as tissue paper and used enough Stickem that he could catch a pass without using his fingers.

August 31, 2015

2015 NFC West Preview

One ill-advised pass is all that apparently separates the Seattle Seahawks from trying for a three-peat at Super Bowl 50.  Maybe, Russell Wilson should have kept an air pump needle in his sleeve and deflated the football a little, and the New England Patriots would not be the defending Super Bowl Champs.

All kidding aside, the Seahawks on paper look like the class of the NFC once again.  However, their job in the NFC West is not going to be easy with maybe the second best team in the conference also playing in the division.  Arizona might have earned the overall number one seed in the NFC last year had Carson Palmer not gone down to injury after the Cardinals began the season 9-1.

The St. Louis Rams face a season on the brink this year in more than one way.  Will they pull up roots and move back to where they once belonged in Los Angeles?  Will the acquisition of Nick Foles give the offense a consistent quarterback.  Will Jeff Fisher keep his job?  It will be an interesting season in the Gateway to the West.

San Francisco is a team under the radar.  The 49ers start over with a new coach in Jim Tomsula with a different offensive philosophy than outgoing coach Jim Harbaugh, a new starting running back, a new number one receiver, and four new defensive starters.  The team with the best won-loss record over a three-year period of 2011-13 fell to 8-8 last year, and where they go this year is a mystery.  The PiRates say the team will take on water in 2015.

 

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Cardinals Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Larry Fitzgerald
WR Michael Floyd
TE Darren Fells
TE Ifeanyi Momah
LT Jared Veldheer
LG Ted Larsen
C A. Q. Shipley
RG Jonathan Cooper
RT Bobby Massie/D. J. Humphries
QB Carson Palmer
HB Andre Ellington
FB (NONE)
   
Defense
DE Calais Campbell
NT Rodney Gunter
DT Frostee Rucker
LB Lorenzo Alexander
LB Kevin Minter
LB Sean Weatherspoon
LB Alex Okafor
CB Patrick Peterson
S Tony Jefferson
S Tyrann Mathieu
CB Justin Bethel
N5 Deone Bucannon
   
Special
Kicker Chandler Catanzaro
Punter Dave Zastudil
KR Brittan Golden
PR Brittan Golden
Arizona Cardinals
Head Coach Bruce Arians
Off. Coordinator Harold Goodwin
Def. Coordinator James Bettcher
2014 W-L-T 11-5-0
Pts 19.4
Opp 18.7
   
Ratings  
PiRate 101.3
Mean 100.5
Bias 101.3
Average 101.0
   
Grades  
Running C-
Passing B
Vs. Run B-
Vs. Pass B-
Special Teams C+
Coaching + Intangibles B
   
Predicted W-L 10-6-0
Division Rank 2
Conference Rank 6
Overall Rank 12
Postseason Yes

ST. LOUIS RAMS

Rams Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Kenny Britt
WR Tavon Austin
WR Stedman Bailey/Brian Quick
TE Jared Cook
LT Greg Robinson
LG Rodger Saffold
C Barrett Jones
RG Jamon Brown
RT Rob Havenstein
QB Nick Foles
HB Tre Mason
FB/TE Lance Kendricks
   
Defense
DE Chris Long
DT Aaron Donald
DT Michael Brockers
DE Robert Quinn
LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar
LB James Laurinaitis
LB Alec Ogletree
CB Trumaine Johnson
S T. J. McDonald
S Rodney McLeod
CB Janoris Jenkins
N5 Lamarcus Joyner
   
Special
Kicker Greg Zuerlein
Punter Johnny Hekker
KR Benny Cunningham
PR Tavon Austin
St. Louis Rams
Head Coach Jeff Fisher
Off. Coordinator Dave McGinnis
Def. Coordinator Gregg Williams
2014 W-L-T 6-10-0
Pts 20.3
Opp 22.1
   
Ratings  
PiRate 95.9
Mean 98.6
Bias 95.0
Average 96.5
   
Grades  
Running D
Passing C+
Vs. Run A
Vs. Pass B-
Special Teams B
Coaching + Intangibles B
   
Predicted W-L 7-9-0
Division Rank 4
Conference Rank 12
Overall Rank 24
Postseason No

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

49ers Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Torrey Smith
WR Anquan Bolden
WR Quinton Patton
TE Vernon Davis
LT Joe Staley
LG Alex Boone
C Joe Looney
RG Marcus Martin
RT Erik Pears
QB Colin Kaepernick
HB Carlos Hyde
FB Bruce Miller
   
Defense
DT Glenn Dorsey
NT Ian Williams
DT Quinton Dial
LB Ahmad Brooks/Eli Harold
LB Nick Moody
LB NaVorro Bowman
LB Corey Lemonier
CB Tramaine Brock
S Antoine Bethea
S Eric Reid
CB Shareece Wright/Keith Reaser
N5 Dontae Johnson
   
Special
Kicker Phil Dawson
Punter Bradley Pinion
KR Reggie Bush
PR Reggie Bush
San Francisco 49ers
Head Coach Jim Tomsula
Off. Coordinator Geep Chryst
Def. Coordinator Eric Mangini
2014 W-L-T 8-8-0
Pts 19.1
Opp 21.3
   
Ratings  
PiRate 99.3
Mean 96.9
Bias 99.1
Average 98.4
   
Grades  
Running A-
Passing B
Vs. Run C+
Vs. Pass C
Special Teams C
Coaching + Intangibles D
   
Predicted W-L 6-10-0
Division Rank 3
Conference Rank 11
Overall Rank 21
Postseason No

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Seahawks Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Doug Baldwin
WR Jermaine Kearse
WR Ricardo Lockette
TE Jimmy Graham
LT Russell Okung
LG Justin Britt
C Drew Nowak
RG J. R. Sweezy/Alvin Bailey
RT Gary Gilliam
QB Russell Wilson
HB Marshawn Lynch
FB Derrick Coleman
   
Defense
DE Michael Bennett
DT Ahtyba Rubin
DT Brandon Mebane
DE Cliff Avril
LB Bruce Irvin
LB Bobby Wagner
LB K. J. Wright
CB Richard Sherman
S Dion Bailey
S Earl Thomas
CB Cary Williams
N5 Tye Smith
   
Special
Kicker Steven Hauschka
Punter Jon Ryan
KR Tyler Lockett
PR Tyler Lockett
Seattle Seahawks
Head Coach Pete Carroll
Off. Coordinator Darell Bevell
Def. Coordinator Kris Richard
2014 W-L-T 12-4-0
Pts 24.6
Opp 15.9
   
Ratings  
PiRate 107.8
Mean 106.9
Bias 108.0
Average 107.6
   
Grades  
Running B+
Passing B+
Vs. Run A-
Vs. Pass A
Special Teams B+
Coaching + Intangibles A
   
Predicted W-L 11-5-0
Division Rank 1
Conference Rank 2
Overall Rank 3
Postseason Yes

 

October 29, 2013

PiRate Ratings: NFL–October 31-November 4, 2013

An Interesting Quarterback Comparison

Yell out when you realize which two quarterbacks this vignette refers to.

 

You have these two quarterbacks that were on the same team, said team being the prohibitive favorite to win the NFC and advance to the Super Bowl.  The first quarterback, the proven starter has the experience and has won for the team before.  He is your classic dropback passer and perfect game manager with little frills to offer.

 

The second quarterback is more of a dual-threat runner.  He can take off and run for 15 yards on 3rd and 14, but some football purists believe his style will not get a team to the Super Bowl.

 

During the middle of a season, following the coach for more than one reason names the backup as the starter for the rest of the year, and the flashy, dual-threat QB directs said team to the NFC Championship and Super Bowl.

 

The former starter is no longer needed, and he eventually emerges to take over an AFC West team, where his conservative, game-management skills has said AFC team number one in the AFC at the halfway point of the season.

 

If you guessed Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith, you are….

 

WRONG!

 

No, this story has been written at least once before.  The two quarterbacks referred to in this vignette are Roger Staubach and Craig Morton.  The two competed to win the permanent starting quarterback spot with the early 1970’s Dallas Cowboys.  Morton inherited the starting spot from the retiring Don Meredith in 1969.  He started through most of the 1970 season, and then in 1971, Coach Tom Landry actually platooned the two, sometimes shuttling them between plays.

 

Staubach led the Cowboys to their first Super Bowl championship, but Morton was back at starter the following year.  It was not until 1973 that Landry decided the scrambling QB from Navy was the clear-cut better option.  Morton moved on, first to the New York Giants, and then to the Denver Broncos, where he guided the 1977 version of Orange Crush to the AFC Championship.  Denver did not win the Super Bowl; they lost to…. Dallas.

 

Might history repeat itself?  Kansas City and San Francisco would make an interesting Super Bowl, and the possibility is there.

 

PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Dallas Cowboys

103.0

105.2

103.8

Washington Redskins

96.8

96.7

96.5

New York Giants

94.7

94.3

93.7

Philadelphia Eagles

94.5

95.4

94.2

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Green Bay Packers

107.4

106.9

107.5

Chicago Bears

101.6

100.9

100.7

Detroit Lions

101.5

103.0

101.6

Minnesota Vikings

93.6

92.1

92.4

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

106.7

108.5

107.3

Carolina Panthers

103.7

103.9

103.9

Atlanta Falcons

98.3

97.3

97.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

92.5

91.3

91.8

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Francisco 49ers

109.6

110.4

110.3

Seattle Seahawks

107.7

107.8

107.5

Arizona Cardinals

97.6

99.1

97.8

St. Louis Rams

97.1

97.7

97.1

       

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

105.4

103.2

105.4

Miami Dolphins

98.7

98.2

98.7

Buffalo Bills

96.6

96.1

97.1

New York Jets

93.7

91.6

93.9

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Cincinnati Bengals

106.1

106.1

106.8

Baltimore Ravens

102.3

101.4

101.8

Cleveland Browns

97.5

98.1

97.5

Pittsburgh Steelers

97.4

96.2

96.8

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

105.3

105.7

105.9

Tennessee Titans

99.7

100.0

100.3

Houston Texans

98.1

97.7

98.6

Jacksonville Jaguars

85.1

84.1

84.4

       
West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

110.4

110.9

110.7

Kansas City Chiefs

103.0

104.8

103.3

San Diego Chargers

100.5

101.7

101.3

Oakland Raiders

93.9

93.7

93.9

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami Cincinnati

-4.4

-4.9

-5.1

Buffalo Kansas City

-3.4

-5.7

-3.2

Carolina Atlanta

7.9

9.1

8.9

Cleveland Baltimore

-1.8

-0.3

-1.3

Dallas Minnesota

12.4

16.1

14.4

Houston Indianapolis

-4.2

-5.0

-4.3

N Y Jets New Orleans

-10.0

-13.9

-10.4

New England Pittsburgh

11.0

10.0

11.6

Oakland Philadelphia

2.9

1.8

3.2

Seattle Tampa Bay

19.2

20.5

19.7

St. Louis Tennessee

0.4

0.7

-0.2

Washington San Diego

-0.2

-1.5

-1.3

Green Bay Chicago

8.3

8.5

9.3

   

 

 

 

Byes: Arizona, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, NY Giants, San Francisco

 

 

 

This Week’s Playoff Projections

 

A F C

1. Denver

2. Cincinnati

3. New England

4. Indianapolis

5. Kansas City

6. San Diego

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Green Bay

4. Dallas

5. San Francisco

6. Detroit

 

Wildcard Round

 

Kansas City over Indianapolis

New England over San Diego

San Francisco over Dallas

Green Bay over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Denver

Cincinnati over New England

San Francisco over Seattle

Green Bay over New Orleans

 

Championship Round

Cincinnati over Kansas City

Green Bay over San Francisco

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay over Cincinnati

September 1, 2013

2013 NFC West Division Preview

2013 N F C West Preview

Do you remember how the season began for the four NFC West teams last year?  After four weeks, who was in first place?  Was it NFC Champion-to-be San Francisco?  Was it the Seattle Seahawks thanks to their gift of a win at home over the Packers on Monday Night Football?  Or, maybe it was the St. Louis Rams with new coach Jeff Fisher?

 

Wrong on all three guesses.  Future last place team Arizona led at 4-0, with three wins over teams expected to be really good.  The Cardinals topped Seattle in week one, then won at New England in week two.  When they defeated Philly in week three, it was meaningful since the Eagles were supposed to challenge for the NFC East crown.  Even an overtime win over Miami in week four looked impressive.  At 4-0, pundits believed this was a much better team than the one that went to the Super Bowl a few years earlier.

 

St. Louis stood at 2-2 after four weeks with wins over two teams that would make the playoffs.  Seattle was also 2-2, but everybody knew they should have been 1-3 and would have been 1-3 had the real referees been there on that fateful Monday night.

 

The San Francisco 49ers were 3-1, with the loss coming to a Minnesota team that nobody believed could go 8-8 much less the 10-6 that they eventually would achieve.

 

That, my friends, is just one example why the NFL is so hard to predict.  Who could believe that the mighty Cardinals of September 2012 would turn into the lowly Cardinals of December 2012.  Nine consecutive losses followed that 4-0 start, and the first eight of those were rather close games.  The ninth loss was a 58-0 pasting at Seattle, who by this time was looking like the best team in the NFL.

 

The swoon cost highly competent head coach Ken Whisenhunt his job.  Whis ended up at San Diego as the new offensive coordinator.  In his place comes the hot offensive coordinator of 2012.  Bruce Arians took over at Indianapolis after Chuck Pagano had to take medical leave, and he merely guided the surprising Colts to a playoff spot.  We believe Arians knows his stuff.  The former offensive assistant at Alabama under Bear Bryant has just one head coaching position on his resume.  He guided Temple to two winning seasons in the 1980’s at a time when winning seasons at Temple were as hard to come by as winning seasons with the Houston Astros.  Arians will get everything possible out of the Cardinal offense, and the team has improved its defense through the draft.  Quarterback Carson Palmer will bring the vertical passing game to the desert, and Larry Fitzgerald should rebound with a 1,000+ yard receiving year.  Michael Floyd showed flashes of brilliance last year even with the Cardinals shuffling quarterbacks like a deck of cards.  He will command enough attention to keep defenses honest, and he will also help the tight ends find more open spaces in the shorter zones.

 

In our opinion, the key to the offense this year is Rashard Mendenhall.  If the former Steeler star can rebound after suffering through an ACL injury last year, then this offense will move the ball and score more points this year.  If he is just a mere shell of his former self, then Palmer will be forced to throw the ball down the field too many times.  It will lead to inconsistency and predictability—failure!

 

St. Louis actually won the division last year if you go by division standings alone.  The Rams swept Arizona, went 1-0-1 against San Francisco, and split with Seattle.  Losses to lowly Detroit and Miami kept the Rams out of the playoffs.  The Rams may see the most benefit from their draft and free agent pickup of anybody.  First round picks Tavon Austin and Alec Ogletree will start from the beginning.  Third round pick T. J. McDonald has cracked the starting lineup as well.  Free agent acquisitions Jared Cook and Jake Long will have big impacts.  Cook could be the steal of the free agent signees this year, as he never developed at Tennessee.  He has looked like the star he was pegged to become under offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.  Fisher’s offenses in the past have relied heavily on throwing to the tight end to convert third down situations.  Having a third place schedule could help bump the Rams up to the plus side of .500, but it might be asking too much to expect this team to make the playoffs.

 

Seattle closed the season looking like the 2007 New England Patriots, at least on the scoreboard.  Those five wins that pushed them into the playoffs came by an average score of 39-12!  Russell Wilson proved to be the best of a great crop of new quarterbacks, and there is no reason to doubt that he won’t continue to flourish in the great Northwest.  He came close to averaging eight yards per pass attempt, a mark equivalent to batting .350 in the Major Leagues.  Receivers Golden Tate and Sidney Rice are capable of having better seasons than they did last year, and if Marshawn Lynch can replicate his 2012 season this year, the Seahawks will contend for the conference championship.  If they can get home field advantage, it will be tough to keep this team out of the Super Bowl.

 

San Francisco is our mystery team for 2013.  How can we say that out of the NFC Champion?  First, we are worried that Frank Gore is about to hit that wall that most running backs in their 30’s smash into when their legs refuse to respond as quickly to the signals sent to it from the brain.  He could still lead the team in rushing, but we suspect his average per carry is going to head south this year.  That could force Colin Kaepernick to try to make up for the decline by running a few too many times.  This new trend of quarterbacks running the ball as part of the offensive game plan is still very risky.  Just one hit could turn the fate of the team over to Colt McCoy, and we do not see McCoy as the type that can lead this team back to the Super Bowl.  So, we have a mystery here this year.

 

If Kaepernick can stay healthy for 16 games, and if Gore can get one more big year out of his legs, then this team is by far the best in the NFC.  However, the fall down the pack could be brutal if either star cannot perform up to their 2012 standards.  Add to this uncertainty the fact that this team must start the year without Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham, and their draft class has more wounded players than healthy players, and 2013 could be a rough beginning with the first five games coming against Green Bay, Seattle, Indianapolis, St. Louis, and Houston.  We would not be surprised if the 49ers are just 2-3 at this point and no better than 3-2.  At that point, if the team is healthy, they could almost run the table, but we believe they will fall a couple times after their week nine bye.eH

 

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

 

Here are the official colors for the NFC West.

West

Color

Red

Green

Blue

Arizona Cardinals

Cardinal

151

35

63

 

Black

17

28

36

 

White

255

255

255

St. Louis Rams

Millenium Blue

0

33

71

 

New Century Gold

149

119

77

 

White

255

255

255

San Francisco 49ers

Cardinal

151

35

63

 

Metallic Gold

142

110

77

 

Black

17

28

36

Seattle Seahawks

Royal Blue

0

51

141

 

Green

0

133

66

 

Silver

133

136

139

 

 

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Seattle Seahawks

112.2

110.7

109.7

11-5-0

412

245

San Francisco 49ers

108.4

107.9

107.5

11-4-1

397

273

St. Louis Rams

98.6

98.6

98.5

7-8-1

299

348

Arizona Cardinals

95.0

94.6

94.3

5-11-0

250

357

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Francisco 49ers

108.4

107.9

108.6

Seattle Seahawks

105.6

105.6

105.5

St. Louis Rams

98.7

99.9

98.0

Arizona Cardinals

95.0

97.5

94.7

 

PiRate Previews

 

Team

Arizona Cardinals

               
Head Coach

Bruce Arians

O-Coord.

Harold Goodwin

D-Coord.

Todd Bowles

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Carson Palmer

Running Back

Rashard Mendenhall

Wide Receiver

Larry Fitzgerald

Wide Receiver

Michael Floyd

Tight End

Rob Housler

Tight End

Kory Sperry

Left Tackle

Levi Brown

Left Guard

Daryn Colledge

Center

Lyle Sendlein

Right Guard

Paul Fanaika

Right Tackle

Eric Winston

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Calais Campbell

Nose Tackle

Dan Williams

Right Tackle

Darnell Dockett

Left OLB

Sam Acho

Left ILB

Jasper Brinkley

Right ILB

Karlos Dansby

Right OLB

Lorenzo Alexander

Left CB

Patrick Peterson

Right CB

Jerraud Powers

Strong Safety

Yeremiah Bell

Free Safety

Rashad Johnson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Jay Feely

Punter

Dave Zastudil

K-Return

Javier Arenas

P-Return

Patrick Peterson

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

5-11

Division

4th

Team

St. Louis Rams

               
Head Coach

Jeff Fisher

O-Coord.

Brian Schottenheimer

D-Coord.

Tim Walton

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Sam Bradford

Running Back

Daryl Richardson

Wide Receiver

Tavon Austin

Wide Receiver

Chris Givens

H-Back

Lance Kendricks

Tight End

Jared Cook

Left Tackle

Jake Long

Left Guard

Shelley Smith

Center

Scott Wells

Right Guard

Harvey Dahl

Right Tackle

Rodger Saffold

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Chris Long

Left Tackle

Kendall Langford

Right Tackle

Michael Brockers

Right End

Robert Quinn

Sam LB

Will Witherspoon

Mike LB

James Laurinaitis

Will LB

Alec Ogletree

Left CB

Cortland Finnegan

Right CB

Janoris Jenkins

Strong Safety

T. J. McDonald

Free Safety

Darian Stewart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Greg Zuerlein

Punter

Johnny Hekker

K-Return

Tavon Austin

P-Return

Tavon Austin

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

8-8

Division

3rd

Team

San Francisco 49ers

               
Head Coach

Jim Harbaugh

O-Coord.

Greg Roman

D-Coord.

Vic Fangio

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Colin Kaepernick

Running Back

Frank Gore

Fullback

Bruce Miller

Wide Receiver

Anquan Boldin

Wide Receiver

Kyle Williams

Tight End

Vernon Davis

Left Tackle

Joe Staley

Left Guard

Mike Iupati

Center

Jonathan Goodwin

Right Guard

Alex Boone

Right Tackle

Anthony Davis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Ray McDonald

Nose Tackle

Ian Williams

Right End

Justin Smith

Left OLB

Ahmad Brooks

Left ILB

NaVorro Bowman

Right ILB

Patrick Willis

Right OLB

Aldon Smith

Left CB

Carlos Rogers

Right CB

Tarell Brown

Strong Safety

Donte Whitner

Free Safety

C. J. Spillman

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Phil Dawson

Punter

Andy Lee

K-Return

LaMichael James

P-Return

LaMichael James

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

12-4

Division

1st

Team

Seattle Seahawks

               
Head Coach

Pete Carroll

O-Coord.

Darrell Bevell

D-Coord.

Dan Quinn

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Russell Wilson

Running Back

Marshawn Lynch

Fullback

Derrick Coleman

Wide Receiver

Golden Tate

Wide Receiver

Sydney Rice

Tight End

Zach Miller

Left Tackle

Russell Okung

Left Guard

Paul Mcquistan

Center

Max Unger

Right Guard

J. R. Sweezy

Right Tackle

Breno Giacomini

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Red Bryant

Left Tackle

Tony McDaniel

Right Tackle

Brandon Mebane

Right End

Chris Clemons

Sam LB

K. J. Wright

Mike LB

Bobby Wagner

Will LB

Malcolm Smith

Left CB

Richard Sherman

Right CB

Brandon Browner

Strong Safety

Kam Chancellor

Free Safety

Earl Thomas

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Steven Hauschka

Punter

Jon Ryan

K-Return

Jermaine Kearse

P-Return

Golden Tate

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

11-5

Division

2nd

This concludes the PiRate Ratings Preseason Previews.  Coming Tuesday, we will debut our opening PiRate Ratings for NFL Week One.

 

On Wednesday, we will carry our college ratings for week two, and on Thursday, we will make our PiRate Picks for college and pro for the weekend.

 

Then, beginning the following week, we expect to release college ratings every Tuesday; NFL ratings every Wednesday; and our picks every Thursday.

January 30, 2013

PiRate Ratings Super Bowl XLVII Preview

Super Bowl XLVII

Teams: Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers

Date: Sunday, February 3, 2013

Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA

Kickoff: 6:30 PM EST

Television: CBS

Radio: Sirius XM & Dial Global Radio Network

 

 

Tale of the Tape

 

Results

Baltimore (13-6-0)

Opponent

Bal

Opp

Cincinnati

44

13

at Philadelphia

23

24

New England

31

30

Cleveland

23

16

at Kansas City

9

6

Dallas

31

29

at Houston

13

43

at Cleveland

25

15

Oakland

55

20

at Pittsburgh

13

10

at San Diego

16

13 ot

Pittsburgh

20

23

at Washington

28

31 ot

Denver

17

34

N. Y. Giants

33

14

at Cincinnati

17

23

Playoffs

 

 

Indianapolis

24

9

at Denver

38

35  2ot

at New England

28

13

 

San Francisco (13-4-1)

Opponent

SF

Opp

at Green Bay

30

22

Detroit

27

19

at Minnesota

13

24

at N. Y. Jets

34

0

Buffalo

45

3

N. Y. Giants

3

26

Seattle

13

6

at Arizona

24

3

St. Louis

24

24 ot

Chicago

32

7

at New Orleans

31

21

at St. Louis

13

16 ot

Miami

27

13

at New England

41

34

at Seattle

13

42

Arizona

27

13

Playoffs

 

 

Green Bay

45

31

at Atlanta

28

24

 

Statistics

Passing

Baltimore

NAME

ATT

COMP

PCT

YDS

YD/ATT

YDS/G

TD

INT

SACKS

Joe Flacco

531

317

59.7

3817

7.2

224.4

22

10

35

 

San Francisco

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Colin Kaepernick

218

136

62.4

1814

8.3

130.9

10

3

16

Alex Smith

218

153

70.2

1737

8

160

13

6

24

 

Receiving

Baltimore

NAME

REC

YDS

AVG

TD

LONG

YDS/G

YAC

Anquan Boldin

65

921

14.2

4

43

61.4

238

Torrey Smith

49

855

17.4

8

54

53.4

238

Dennis Pitta

61

669

11

7

61

41.8

264

Ray Rice

61

478

7.8

1

43

29.9

452

Jacoby Jones

30

406

13.5

1

47

25.4

102

 

San Francisco

NAME

REC

YDS

AVG

TD

LONG

YDS/G

YAC

Michael Crabtree

85

1105

13

9

49

69.1

465

Vernon Davis

41

548

13.4

5

53

34.3

173

Mario Manningham

42

449

10.7

1

40

37.4

183

Randy Moss

28

434

15.5

3

55

27.1

74

Delanie Walker

21

344

16.4

3

45

21.5

59

Frank Gore

28

234

8.4

1

26

14.6

210

 

Rushing

Baltimore

NAME

ATT

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

YDS/G

FUM

LOST

Ray Rice

257

1143

4.4

46

9

71.4

1

0

Bernard Pierce

108

532

4.9

78

1

33.3

0

0

 

San Francisco

NAME

ATT

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

YDS/G

FUM

LOST

Frank Gore

258

1214

4.7

37

8

75.9

2

1

Colin Kaepernick

63

415

6.6

50

5

31.9

7

2

Kendall Hunter

72

371

5.2

26

2

33.7

0

0

 

Kicking

Baltimore

NAME

XPM

XPA

FGM

FGA

PCT

LONG

1-19

20-29

30-39

40-49

50+

PTS

Justin Tucker

42

42

30

33

90.9

56

0-0

8-8

8-8

10-13

4-4

132

 

San Francisco

NAME

XPM

XPA

FGM

FGA

PCT

LONG

1-19

20-29

30-39

40-49

50+

PTS

David Akers

44

44

29

42

69.0

63

1-1

8-9

11-13

7-13

2-6

131

 

Punting

Baltimore

NAME

PUNTS

YDS

LONG

AVG

NET

BLK

IN-20

TB

FC

% RET

R-AVG

Sam Koch

83

3911

60

47.1

40.8

0

28

7

13

59

7.8

 

San Francisco

NAME

PUNTS

YDS

LONG

AVG

NET

BLK

IN-20

TB

FC

% RET

R-AVG

Andy Lee

67

3226

66

48.1

43.2

0

36

4

18

53.7

6.9

 

Kick Returns

Baltimore

NAME

KR

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

Jacoby Jones

38

1167

30.7

108

2

Deonte Thompson

15

389

25.9

49

0

 

San Francisco

NAME

KR

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

LaMichael James

14

417

29.8

62

0

Kyle Williams

13

353

27.2

94

0

Ted Ginn

11

253

23

31

0

 

Punt Returns

Baltimore

NAME

PR

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

FC

Jacoby Jones

37

341

9.2

63

1

16

 

San Francisco

NAME

PR

YDS

AVG

LONG

TD

FC

Ted Ginn

32

326

10.2

38

0

12

 

Depth Charts

When Baltimore Has The Ball

Baltimore Offense  
Pos

No.

Name
WR

81

Anquan Boldin
LT

74

Michael Oher
LG

73

Marshal Yanda
C

77

Matt Birk
RG

63

Bobbie Williams
RT

72

Kelechi Osemele
TE

88

Dennis Pitta
WR

82

Torrey Smith
QB

5

Joe Flacco
RB

27

Ray Rice
FB

44

Vonta Leach
TE2

86

Billy Bajema
WR3

12

Jacoby Jones

 

San Francisco Defense
Pos

No.

Name
LE

91

Ray McDonald
NT

90

Isaac Sopoaga
RE

94

Justin Smith
LOLB

55

Ahmad Brooks
LILB

53

NaVorro Bowman
RILB

52

Patrick Willis
ROLB

99

Aldon Smith
LCB

22

Carlos Rogers
RCB

25

Tarell Brown
SS

31

Donte Whitner
FS

38

Dashon Goldson
5₵

29

Chris Culliver
10₵

20

Perrish Cox

 

When San Francisco Has The Ball

San Francisco Offense
Pos

No.

Name
WR

15

Michael Crabtree
LT

74

Joe Staley
LG

77

Mike Iupati
C

59

Jonathan Goodwin
RG

75

Alex Boone
RT

76

Anthony Davis
TE

85

Vernon Davis
WR

84

Randy Moss
QB

7

Colin Kaepernick
RB

21

Frank Gore
FB

49

Bruce Miller
TE2

46

Delanie Walker
WR3

19

Ted Ginn

 

Baltimore Defense  
Pos

No.

Name
LE

90

Pernell McPhee
NT

96

Ma’ake Kemoeatu
RE

92

Haloti Ngata
LOLB

91

Courtney Upshaw
LILB

52

Ray Lewis
RILB

49

Josh Bynes
ROLB

50

Albert McClellan
LCB

24

Corey Graham
RCB

29

Cary Williams
SS

32

James Ihedigbo
FS

20

Ed Reed
5₵

23

Chykie Brown
10₵

22

Jimmy Smith

 

Special Teams

Baltimore

Pos

No.

Name
K

9

Justin Tucker
P

4

Sam Koch
KR

12

Jacoby Jones
PR

12

Jacoby Jones

 

San Francisco

Pos

No.

Name
K

2

David Akers
P

4

Andy Lee
KR

19

Ted Ginn
PR

19

Ted Ginn

 

100 Simulations

Wins

San Francisco 57  Baltimore 43 (5 Simulations Decided by Overtime)

 

Average Score

San Francisco 25.53  Baltimore 22.91

 

Standard Deviation

13.44

 

Outliers

San Francisco 38  Baltimore 12

Baltimore 35  San Francisco 10

 

Selection Information

Line: San Francisco by 3 ½

 

Totals: 47 ½

 

Money Line: San Francisco -175  Baltimore +155

 

Computer Ratings

PiRate: San Francisco by 3.8

 

PiRate Mean: San Francisco by 3.4

 

PiRate Bias: San Francisco by 4.2

 

PiRate Vintage: San Francisco by 2.0

 

PICKS

The PiRate Playoff Picks are 12-5-0 against the spread this year for 70.6%.  We could play use multiple selections and still be playing with house money, but we are a bit too conservative for this.  The simulations show this game to be rather risky with one of the highest standard deviations ever for a Super Bowl.

 

Our tendency is to select the underdog when the game looks like a wild one in the making.  Also, we tend to believe that the first half will be lower scoring than the second half.  If you play exotics, like halftime lines, then you might find value there.  We do not like these gimmick selections.

 

We can do one thing that sounds reasonable, and that is to believe this game will be relatively close and will stay within certain boundaries.  If we go with a 13-point Teaser with both sides and both totals, we can hope for a close game that is neither overly high-scoring or low-scoring.  Making just one selection guarantees we will be 66.7% at the worst for the playoffs and possibly 72.2% if we win.

 

Normally, we would run away from a 13-point teaser when the line is 3 ½ and the Total is 47 ½, because these are bad numbers to tease.  However, in most of our models, we see both teams scoring between 20 and 30 points, and that gives this selection a strong chance in our eyes.

 

 

13-point Teaser Pick For Super Bowl

 

4-selection parlay

San Francisco +9 ½

Baltimore +16 ½

OVER 34 ½

UNDER 60 ½

 

January 17, 2013

PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Championship Game Previews–January 20, 2013

The PiRate Simulator gave back some booty to the mean Vegas Buccaneers last week, going 2-3 in the Divisional Round selections.  This brings the playoff selections results to 10-4.  We cannot lose now, because there are only three games left in which to make selections, and we will not go 0-6.  So, we are playing with house booty.

 

Sunday, January 20, 2013

 

San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1) at Atlanta Falcons (14-3-0)

 

Time: 3:00 PM EST

 

TV: Fox

 

Georgia Dome Forecast: Indoors

 

 

 

PiRate: San Francisco by 1.1

 

PiRate Mean: San Francisco by 0.2

 

PiRate Bias: San Francisco by 0.5

 

PiRate Vintage: Atlanta by 2.0

 

 

 

Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4

 

Totals: 49

 

Money Line:  San Francisco -XXX  Atlanta +XXX

 

 

 

100 Computer Simulations: Atlanta 52 San Francisco 48

 

Average Score: Atlanta 24.6  San Francisco 24.4

 

Standard Deviation: 7.4

 

Outlier Home: Atlanta 30  San Francisco 10

 

Outlier Visitor: San Francisco 19  Atlanta 7

 

Outlier High: 62 Points

 

Outlier Low:  24 Points

 

 

 

PiRate Captain Says: The computer calls this game a statistical dead heat.  We believe possibly that the 49ers are going to find the Falcon defense prepared and ready to slow down Colin Kaepernick and the college-style offense.  Until one of these zone-read option QB’s actually wins a Super Bowl, we are going with the belief that a standard drop-back passer and a prepared defense will win every time when there are just four teams left in the playoffs.

 

 

 

It is just gravy that we get the Falcons as home ‘dogs.  They have the added incentive of being the overlooked team of the four that are left, and we believe Matt Ryan and company are primed to have one of those very memorable games.

 

Baltimore Ravens (12-6-0) at New England Patriots (13-4-0)

Time: 6:30 PM EST

TV: CBS

Gillette Stadium Forecast: Clear with temperatures falling from the low 30’s to the low 20’s during the game

 

PiRate: New England by 10.8

PiRate Mean: New England by 9.2

PiRate Bias: New England by 7.9

PiRate Vintage: New England by 6.7

 

Vegas Line: New England by 9

Totals: 51 ½

Money Line:  New England –XXX  Baltimore +XXX

 

100 Computer Simulations: New England 62  Baltimore 38

Average Score: New England 29.4  Baltimore 23.6

Standard Deviation: 8.4

Outlier Home: New England 48  Baltimore 17

Outlier Visitor: Baltimore 41  New England 20

Outlier High: 79 points

Outlier Low: 44 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Asking New England to win by double digits in a grudge game rematch of last year’s AFC Championship is asking too much in our opinion. The Patriots should win the game, but we believe that 9 times out of 10, this game would have an outcome with the margin under 7 points, no matter which team won.  We’ll go with those odds and take the Underdog and the points.

 

The weather should be very cold, but dry and not too windy.  Tom Brady and Joe Flacco should provide three hours of quality entertainment and bring this game down to yet another last possession outcome.  Remember in the past though that almost every rematch of a conference championship game has been won by the team that won the year before. 

 

Green Bay won the Ice Bowl rematch with Dallas in 1967 after winning a close one in 1966.  Pittsburgh won the rematch with Houston in 1978 and 1979.  This game ranks up there with those games in historical importance.  It also doesn’t hurt that Green Bay and Pittsburgh were the home teams for those games, and New England is for this one.

 

 

Selections

1. Baltimore +9 ½ vs. New England

2. Atlanta +4 vs. San Francisco

 

3. 10-point Teaser

Baltimore +19 ½ vs. New England

Atlanta +14 vs. San Francisco

Baltimore and New England OVER 41 ½

 

August 14, 2010

2010 Western Athletic Conference Preview

Go to www.piratings.webs.com where we beat the spread 60.4% in 2009!

 

2010 Western Athletic Conference Preview

 

No team has dominated a conference for an entire decade the way Boise State has dominated the WAC since Alabama toyed with the SEC for 10 years after Bear Bryant went to the wishbone.  The Broncos last eight years in conference play have produced a league mark of 62-2!  Things will change next year, when BSU moves to the Mountain West.  It appears impossible for the Broncos to top last year’s 14-0 record, but this year’s team might be considerably stronger.

Nevada is the clear-cut second best team, and Fresno State is the clear-cut third best team.  After those two, there are three teams that are equally mediocre and three teams that will be fodder for the top six.  With Boise primed to make a run for a National Championship, there is a legitimate possibility that there will not be enough bowl eligible teams for the allotted bowl spots.

Note: The PiRate Ratings are not meant to be used to predict the outcome of future games.  They are usable only as a basis for the current week’s games.  We do not use these ratings to make our selections.  They are only a starting point.  The predictions given below, as for every college conference and NFL division, are not taken from the ratings themselves.

Predictions

Pos Team WAC Overall
1 Boise State 8-0 12-0
2 Nevada 7-1 10-3
3 Fresno State 6-2 9-3
4 Utah State 4-4 5-7
5 Hawaii 4-4 6-7
6 Louisiana Tech 4-4 5-7
7 Idaho 2-6 3-10
8 New Mexico State 1-7 2-10
9 San Jose State 0-8 2-11

 

BCS Bowl: Boise State (possible National Championship Game)

Humanitarian Bowl: Fresno State

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Nevada

Hawaii Bowl: Will need an at-large team

New Mexico Bowl: Will need and at-large team

 

Hawaii is guaranteed a spot in the Hawaii Bowl if they have seven or more wins.  If not, this bowl gets the third choice after the Humanitarian and Kraft Bowls select.

 

Team By Team Breakdown

 

Team Boise State Broncos
               
Head Coach Chris Petersen
               
Colors Blue and Orange
               
City Boise, ID
               
2009 Record              
Conference 8-0
Overall 14-0
               
PiRate Rating 121.7
               
National Rating 8
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 8-0
Overall 12-0

 

Offense: Better?  You betcha.  The Broncos return 10 starters on this side of the ball as well as every player that ran the ball and every receiver that caught a pass!

Let’s start with the nation’s number two quarterback in passing efficiency in 2009, trailing only some guy named Tebow.  Kellen Moore made 3rd Team All-American last year, and he could move up two spots if his team runs the table this year.  We expect him to be making a trip to the Downtown Athletic Club in Manhattan in December.  Moore completed 64.3% of his passes for 3,536 yards.  His TD/Int ration was an astonishing 39/3.  He was a down-the-field passer, so those stats were not inflated by having some speedster frequently turning a two-yard pass into a 65-yard touchdown.

Moore’s only problem may be trying to decide which open receiver to throw the ball.  His top two options are 2009 1st Team All-WAC Austin Pettus and Titus Young.  Those two combined for 142 receptions and 24 touchdowns.  Tyler Shoemaker is the bruiser of this group, and he can go across the middle and make the tough catch in a sea of defenders.

When Boise runs the ball, they will have a trio of special backs toting the pigskin.  Jeremy Avery ran for more than 1,150 yards, and Doug Martin added 765.  Martin led the ground contingent with 15 touchdowns.  Third back D. J. Harper accounted for just 285 yards, but he is the best breakaway threat of the three.  He averaged 6.5 yards per rush a year ago.

The offensive line returns four starters a year after allowing just five QB sacks, only three after the first game.  The entire second team has some starting experience, so Coach Chris Petersen can feel confident relieving his starters for a series.

Boise State averaged 42.2 points and 450 total yards last year, and those numbers should be eclipsed by this veteran squad.  Look for 45-50 points and 450-475 yards per game this season.

Defense: Now the bad news: Uh, the only bad news is for the rest of the league, because Boise State will be more improved on this side of the ball than on offense!

The Broncos gave up 17 points and 300 yards per game last year, and 10 starters also return on this side of the ball.  Almost the entire second team returns as well, and it would not surprise us to see BSU finish in the top five in both total offense and total defense.  We’re talking 1997 Nebraska-type dominance if that happens.

If there is a liability of any kind with this defense, it is at linebacker.  Boise uses a 4-2-5 defense, and the two linebackers get lost among all the stars on the stop side.  Aaron Tevis and Daron Mackey combined for just 90 stops a year ago, and they were merely above-average players in the WAC.

In the trenches, the Broncos can rely on four experienced upperclassmen, including a sure future NFL (assuming the NFL plays in 2011 or 2012) end.  Ryan Winterswyk made 17 tackles on the other team’s side of the line—nine sacks and eight tackles of runners.  Tackle Billy Wynn is just as potent at causing teams to lose yardage.

The secondary is even stronger this year.  Nickel back Winston Venable is a monster against both the run and the pass, and when he is on the field, opposing teams may think there is more than one #17 running around.  Cornerback Brandyn Thompson and strong safety Jeron Johnson should both make 1st Team All-WAC after teaming for 10 interceptions last year.

Schedule: It all comes down to the first game of the season.  Boise travels over 2,000 miles across two time zones to face Virginia Tech at the Washington Redskins’ stadium on Monday night, September 6.  The Broncos proved they could beat a BCS conference champion last year when they completely shut down Oregon in the opener.  That game was at home.  If the Broncos beat the Hokies, we don’t see anybody else threatening them.  A home game with Oregon State and a road game against Nevada might be the only other games where they cannot win by three touchdowns or more.  It will be either 1-0 on the way to 12-0 or 0-1 on the way to maybe 10-2.  At 12-0, they would be riding a 26-game winning streak and deserve to go to Glendale, Arizona, on January 10.

Team Fresno State Bulldogs
               
Head Coach Pat Hill
               
Colors Cardinal and White
               
City Fresno, CA
               
2009 Record              
Conference 6-2
Overall 8-5
               
PiRate Rating 99.6
               
National Rating 60
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 6-2
Overall 9-3

 

Offense: Fresno State has always fielded exciting, well-balanced offenses under Coach Pat Hill.  This year will be no different.  The Bulldogs may have lost their top player on this side of the ball, but they return eight starters and should have another successful season moving the ball.

It will be hard to replace running back Ryan Mathews after he led the league with more than 1,800 yards rushing and 19 touchdowns.  We expect Robbie Rouse to step in and rush for 1,000+ yards in his first year as a starter.  He showed flashes of brilliance last year in a backup role.

In a league of outstanding quarterbacks, Ryan Colburn rarely gets a mention in the press outside of Fresno.  Colburn is a capable, but not flashy passer.  He completed 61% of his tosses for 2,459 yards last year, but he needs to cut down on his 3.7% interception rate.

The Bulldogs lost three of their top four receivers, but there is good talent left.  Jamel Hamler and Devon Wylie can turn a short pass into a long gain.

The offensive line welcomes back all five starters.  This unit could be a little better than Boise State’s interior line.  Best among this quintet are center Joe Bernardi and tackle Kenny Wiggins, two seniors that should have a chance to play professionally (maybe in Canada).

Fresno State may take a small step backward on this side of the ball, but the Bulldogs will still be an offensive threat in every game.  Look for about 28 points and 400 yards per game.

Defense: FSU surrendered 214 rushing and 200 passing yards last year, and we see that problem continuing in 2010.  The Bulldogs return the majority of their contributors from 2009, but we see only three really good players on this side of the ball.

One of those three is end Chris Carter.  The 1st Team All-WAC performer accounted for almost half of the team’s sacks (5 out of FSU’s poor 11) and added eight other tackles for loss.  He’s the only star player in the trenches, and he will see double teams on most plays this year.  The Bulldogs gave up a profane six yards per rush last year, so teams will run the ball at them until they can prove they can slow it down.

The second line of defense is much better than the first and considerably better than the unit behind them.  Linebacker Ben Jacobs led FSU with 106 tackles last year, but too many were five or more yards down the field.  Neither he, nor outside linebacker Kyle Knox recorded a sack.

The secondary is pedestrian, but it was hard to cover the WAC’s receivers when there was no pass rush.  Strong safety Lorne Bell earned 2nd Team All-WAC honors, but he is better in run support than in pass coverage.

Fresno State will give up a lot of points again this season, and it will prevent the Bulldogs from contending with the big two in the league.  Look for 26-30 points and 400-425 yards allowed—about the same as last year.

Schedule: Outside of the WAC, Fresno plays its usual contingent of BCS schools.  This year, they host Cincinnati and Illinois and visit Ole Miss.  They get a breather with FCS member Cal Poly.  Boise State is a road game, and they have no chance in that one.  They get Nevada at home and could sneak up on the Wolf Pack.  6-2 in the league is a strong possibility, and we believe the Bulldogs can upend two of the three BCS conference teams they play.  Call it nine wins and a bowl in 2010.

Team Hawaii Warriors
               
Head Coach Greg McMackin
               
Colors Green, Black, and White
               
City Honolulu, HI
               
2009 Record              
Conference 3-5
Overall 6-7
               
PiRate Rating 85.0
               
National Rating 97
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 4-4
Overall 6-7

 

Offense: Hawaii has once again become a great vacation trip for BCS schools.  Since June Jones left for SMU three years ago, the Warriors have fallen on hard times.  The UH offense went from a 40+ per game juggernaut to a 20-point per game patsy.

Don’t look for any improvement on this side of the ball in 2010.  Coach Greg McMackin has too many holes to fill to expect a better showing.  In fact, things could get worse.  Only five starters return, but only one of them is from the offensive line.  Tackles Austin Hansen and Laupepa Letuli give the Warrior a good couple of anchors.

Quarterback Brian Moniz returns to pilot the attack after starting eight times last year.  He is a good runner as well as passer, but he won’t be confused with Colin Kaepernick.

Moniz will benefit from the return of receivers Greg Salas and Kealoha Pilares.  The two combined for 172 receptions and 2,280 yards.  Speedy Rodney Bradley gives Moniz a third good option.

The running game has not been much of a factor in recent years.  As long as the back in the game can block for the quarterback, run a good safety valve route and cut on a draw play, he has done his job.  Alex Green should fit the bill nicely, and he should catch 25-30 passes this year.

With the troubles up front, we just cannot see Hawaii topping 24 points per game this season.  Look for 21-24 points and 375-400 yards.  The Warriors turned the ball over a lot last year, and that trend may continue in 2010. 

Defense: There should be improvement on this side of the ball, but it may not show up that much in the stats.  If the offense gives up the ball quickly due to incompetence, the defense will stay on the field longer.

Seven starters return on this side of the ball, but the top two tacklers from a year ago are gone.  One area that should not be a problem is the secondary.  All four starters return after giving up just 203 passing yards per game (low for this league).  All four (corners Jeramy Bryant and Lametrius Davis and safeties Mana Silva and Spencer Smith) proved to be excellent pass defenders, combining for 10 interceptions and 24 passes batted away.

The front seven is more of a problem.  Hawaii did a poor job against the run last year, and it could continue this season.  Two starters must be replaced up front, and two starters must be replaced at linebacker.  None of this year’s front seven will contend for even honorable mention all-conference.

Hawaii will give up 30-35 points and 400-425 yards per game.  

Schedule: The opener should draw a lot of national attention.  UH entertains bad boy Lane Kiffin and his Southern Cal Trojans on Thursday night, September 2.  They follow it up with a trips to West Point to face Army on 9/11 and to Boulder to take on the Colorado Buffaloes on 9/18.  It could actually be snowing in the Front Range on that date.  The Warriors return home to face Charleston Southern, which should be their first win.  UH concludes the season with UNLV.  The Rebels could possibly be playing for bowl eligibility in that game.  In league play, UH has road games with Fresno State and Boise State and will come home with their tails beneath their legs. 

We believe the Warriors will break even in league play, but they will fall one game short of bowl eligibility again.

Team Idaho Vandals
               
Head Coach Robb Akey
               
Colors Black and Gold
               
City Moscow, ID
               
2009 Record              
Conference 4-4
Overall 8-5
               
PiRate Rating 90.3
               
National Rating 88
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 2-6
Overall 3-10

 

Offense: 2009 was one of those years when the stars aligned just right for Coach Robb Akey’s Vandals.  Idaho won five close games, including a 43-42 Humanitarian Bowl thriller over Bowling Green, on its way to its first winning season of the century.  With the graduation of most of their offensive line, their top running back, and their top receiver, it looks like the one year recovery will be an anomaly. 

The one bright spot on this side of the ball is the return of quarterback Nathan Enderle.  After the big two, he may be the third best QB in the WAC.  Last year, he passed for 2,906 yards and 22 touchdowns.

Enderle’s top target has graduated, and Max Komar was vital to this team’s success.  Maurice Shaw returns after averaging more than 20 yards on his 32 receptions.  He should form a solid trio with Preston Davis and tight end Daniel Hardy, but Komar will be sorely missed.

Idaho used a platoon at tailback, and two of the three principle members of that platoon return.  Princeton McCarty and Deonte Jackson combined for 1,108 yards, so the Vandals’ running game is in good hands this year.

Because the rebuilding blocking wall will be a liability this year, expect both the rushing and passing yardage to fall back in 2010.  Call it about 23-26 points and 380-420 yards per game.  

Defense: Idaho didn’t win because of great defensive play in 2009.  They gave up 36 points and 433 yards per game!  With 10 starters returning, there should be some improvement, but we don’t see enough improvement to justify picking Idaho to return to a bowl.

The entire front seven returns intact.  They were not particularly strong against the run or the pass.  While the Vandals gave up just a tad over 150 rushing yards per game, opponents averaged 4.7 yards per rush.  They were too busy picking the secondary to shreds to run the ball much more than 30 times per game.

The strength of the front seven is on the outside where end Aaron Lavarais and outside linebacker Jo Jo Dickson will contend for all-conference honors.

The secondary will not fare much better than their dismal performance last year after giving up 278 passing yards per game and allowing better than 66% completions.  Without a much better pass rush, look for the Vandals to maybe give up 300 yards per game through the air.

Idaho will once again give up 30+ points per game, but maybe it will be less than last year’s 36.  Let’s go with 32-35 points and 425-450 yards allowed.

Schedule: The Vandals should start off the season on a winning note when they open with North Dakota at home.  Then, they must play at Nebraska, where they could lose by six touchdowns.  A home game with UNLV should tell the fans whether they have any reason to remain optimistic, and we believe the Rebels will leave Moscow with a win.  A trip to Colorado State the following week will either put the nail in the coffin for the 2010 season or give the Vandal hope.  The Rams will treat that game as a must-win contest.  A final non-conference game at Western Michigan won’t give them a win.  Idaho hosts both Nevada and Boise State, which should be considered a curse this year.  They cannot compete with either, and it would be better for the Vandals to have two other home games.  At least, UI gets New Mexico State and San Jose State at home—those are their two conference wins for 2010.

Team Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
               
Head Coach Sonny Dykes
               
Colors Red and Blue
               
City Ruston, LA
               
2009 Record              
Conference 3-5
Overall 4-8
               
PiRate Rating 96.5
               
National Rating 66
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 4-4
Overall 5-7

 

Offense: After half of the coaches in FBS football turned down the Tennessee job last year, Tech coach Derek Dooley took the job.  Welcome new coach Sonny Dykes.  Dykes turned around the Arizona Wildcats’ offense after learning the “Air Raid” Spread offense at Texas Tech under Mike Leach.  Expect a complete overhaul of the offense this year, as the Bulldogs return to a wide open offense like teams of yesteryear in Ruston.

Unfortunately, Tech won’t have Tim Rattay, Luke McCown, or Terry Bradshaw lining up at quarterback.  Actually, neither Dooley nor offensive coordinator Tony Franklin know who will be lining up at quarterback in the opener.  As August practices began, it was a four-way race between incumbent Ross Jenkins, Auburn transfer Steven Ensminger, last year’s backup Colby Cameron, and junior college transfer Tarik Hakim.  Whoever wins the battle will be throwing the ball anywhere from 40 to 60 times a game.

Tech has a fine stable of pass receivers thanks to the school that stole their prior coach.  Tennessee transfer Ahmad Paige left Orangeville last year to escape the tornado known as Lane Kiffin.  Paige will join holdovers Cruz Williams and Phillip Livas to form a solid first team.  In this offense, expect at least five other receivers to catch more than 25 passes. 

Another escapee from the Kiffin asylum is tailback Lennon Creer.  We expect Creer to step in and start from day one, but the Bulldogs backs will not match the production of graduated star Daniel Porter.

The offensive line returns four starters, but there could be some rough times in the transition from a predominantly running attack to an offense that will pass the ball at least 60% of the time and as much as 80-85% of the time.

LT averaged 29 points per game last year, and we think the Bulldogs will shatter that mark this season.  Look for 31-35 points and 400-425 yards per game in year one of the “air raid.”

Defense: This is the reason Dykes won’t turn things around in year one.  Tech gave up 26 points per game last year, and the defense is noticeably weaker this season.

The problems start up front where only one starter returns to the four-man trench.  Included in the graduation losses was two-time All-WAC star D’Anthony Smith.

The three-man linebacking corps returns two starters, including 2009 1st Team All-WAC Mike linebacker Adrien Cole.  Cole led the Techsters with 93 tackles last year.

The secondary is better than average and returns three starters, but they may have trouble matching last year’s numbers due to the weaker pass rush. 

We expect LT to give up more than 28 points and maybe as much as 33 points per game to go along with 375-400 yards per game.

Schedule: Finally it will happen!  Louisiana Tech will play Grambling for the first time ever to kick off the 2010 season.  The schools are within walking distance, but they have been separated by mountains of Southern philosophical opinion for years.  It should be an interesting game, but any chance for Grambling to pull off the upset disappeared when they weren’t able to gain approval for a medical hardship redshirt for their starting quarterback.  Tech will be 1-0 when they venture to Aggieland to take on Texas A&M, and that game should be a shootout.  Ditto the following two weeks’ games with Navy and Southern Miss.  When Tech enters WAC play, they may be just 1-3, but they could be averaging 40 points per game.  We see them splitting their league games, coming up one win short of bowl eligibility.

Team Nevada Wolf Pack
               
Head Coach Chris Ault
               
Colors Blue and Silver
               
City Reno, NV
               
2009 Record              
Conference 7-1
Overall 8-5
               
PiRate Rating 102.6
               
National Rating 51
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 7-1
Overall 10-3

 

Offense: Coaltown, Alydar, Sham, the 1961 Detroit Tigers, the 1962 Detroit Lions—what do these have in common?  Coaltown, Alydar, and Sham were great horses that might have won the Triple Crown in their three-year old campaigns, but they happened to race against Citation, Affirmed, and Secretariat.  The 1961 Tigers won more than 100 games and was probably better than the 1968 World Champions.  The 1962 Lions were probably the best ever in the Motor City.  Those Tigers played second fiddle to the Maris and Mantle Yankees.  Those Lions played second fiddle to the greatest NFL team in history—the 1962 Green Bay Packers.

Nevada is this year’s Coaltown.  The Wolf Pack is clearly the second best team in the WAC and one of the best teams in WAC history (in the current alignment) not wearing an orange and blue uniform.

Coach Chris Ault’s team ran the pistol offense to near perfection a year ago.  Nevada outpaced Georgia Tech and the three service academies that run triple option and averaged a nation’s best 345 yards rushing per game.  They had three players top 1,000 rushing yards.  Not even the great Oklahoma teams of the 1970’s that rushed for more than 400 yards a game had such a trio.

Two of those three stars return this season.  One is quarterback Colin Kaepernick.  He rushed for almost 1,200 yards (actually well over 1,300 when you factor out sacks) and 16 touchdowns.  He tossed another 20 touchdown passes on his way to 2,052 yards passing.

Joining Kaepernick in the pistol backfield will be Vai Taua, the other 1,000 yard back.  He totaled 1,345 yards with 10 touchdowns.  Backup Mike Ball will take over as the number two running back.  He averaged almost 10 yards per try in limited action last year, so he could replace Luke Lippincott as the third 1,000-yard rusher this year.

The receiving corps isn’t exactly chopped liver.  The four main receivers return after combining for 130 receptions and 14 touchdowns.  Brandon Wimberly was the WAC Freshman of the Year after grabbing 53 passes for 733 yards.

The offensive line lost two All-WAC performer, but we think this unit will be close to last year’s unit in blocking ability. 

Unless one of the option teams has an incredible season, there is no reason not to believe that Nevada will top the rushing charts again this season.  Look for another 325-350 effort on the ground with an additional 175-200 yards through the air.  The Wolf Pack should top 40 points per game after threatening that mark the last two seasons.

Defense: This side of the ball is missing just enough to prevent Nevada from competing with Boise State for the title.  As it is, the Wolf Pack is still the second best team by far.  Three of the top four tacklers must be replaced, so it is likely that Nevada will have to outscore opponents this season.

Up front, one of the returning starters is end Dontay Moch, who earned WAC Defensive Player of the Year in 2009.  Moch registered 20 tackles behind the line of scrimmage, including  6 ½ sacks.  At 6-1, he may be on the small side to be a star at the next level.

Brandon Marshall gives Nevada an outstanding strong-side linebacker.  Marshall dumped defenders for loss 9 ½ times in 2009, and he batted away four passes as well.

It is the secondary where Nevada cannot stop Boise State and thus cannot win the WAC this year.  The ‘Pack surrendered almost 300 yards through the air and 61.5% completions in 2009, and no starter had more than one interception.  Former Utah quarterback Corbin Louks has been brought to Reno to anchor the secondary at free safety. 

Nevada will once again give up more than four touchdowns per game.  Look for about 30 points and 425 yards allowed per contest.

Schedule: Nevada gets two breathers to open the season.  They host Eastern Washington and Colorado State.  A third consecutive home game against California could give the Wolf Pack a good chance to pull off the minor upset and crack the polls.  The following week finds them venturing to BYU for a potentially great shootout.  A week later, Nevada plays at UNLV.  They could be 5-0 when WAC play starts, and they will be no worse than 3-2.  They should be 4-0 in conference play when they go to Fresno State on November 13.  After a breather with New Mexico State, they host Boise State on Friday, November 26.  It isn’t impossible, but highly improbable they will win this game unless Boise State falls apart with numerous injuries.  Still, this should be Ault’s best team in Reno since he returned for the third time in 2004.  Call if a double-digit winning year.

Team New Mexico State Aggies
               
Head Coach DeWayne Walker
               
Colors Crimson and White
               
City Las Cruces, NM
               
2009 Record              
Conference 1-7
Overall 3-10
               
PiRate Rating 78.4
               
National Rating 109
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 1-7
Overall 2-10

 

Offense: One word can best sum up the Aggies’ offense—offensive.  NMSU scored just 11.5 points per game and tallied just 229 total yards per game.  That looks like stats you would see from a college team in the days when players went both ways.  The Aggies had no passing game whatsoever, and they were not an option team.  They averaged just 88 yards per game and completed less than half of their passes.

Quarterback Jeff Fleming might do better if he could throw to himself.  He just doesn’t have much talent in which to throw the ball.

Things are much better with the running game.  Seth Smith ran for more than 1,000 yards even though defenses placed an extra defender and sometimes two extra defenders up close to stop the run.

The offensive line returns three starters, but the Aggies pick up a plum in former Texas Longhorn tackle Aundre McGaskey.

With stats like last year, there is only one way to go for Coach DeWayne Walker’s offense, but we don’t expect State to fool many defenses this year.  Look for a slight improvement to 14-17 points and 250-275 yards per game. 

Defense: When your offense cannot sustain many drives and convert first downs, your defense will be on the field much longer than average.  Opponents ran an average of eight more plays per game against the Aggies last year, and more of the same will happen this season.

One unit that will be better is the back line.  All four starters return to the secondary.  This quartet of Stephon Hatchett, Alphonso House, Jonte Green, and Davon House teamed up for 32 batted passes and five picks.

The defensive line will be a little better this year, and that will make the secondary that much better.  Ends Pierre Fils and Donte Savage teamed up to make 13 QB sacks.

It’s at linebacker where there will be difficulties this year.  The Aggies must break in three new starters, only one of whom saw any real action last year.

The Aggies will give up 28-32 points and 400-425 yards again this season.  They are still a long way from competing for bowl eligibility.

Schedule: The one plus for New Mexico State is that as weak as they are, their in-state rival is weaker.  The Aggies should beat New Mexico.  They won’t be so lucky with San Diego State, UTEP, or Kansas.  NMSU gets upstart San Jose State at home, so we believe they will win twice this season.  That is one less than last year.

Team San Jose State Spartans
               
Head Coach Mike MacIntyre
               
Colors Dark Blue and Gold
               
City San Jose, CA
               
2009 Record              
Conference 1-7
Overall 2-10
               
PiRate Rating 82.7
               
National Rating 101
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 0-8
Overall 2-11

 

Offense: New Spartan head coach Mike MacIntyre takes over at San Jose after earning the national Assistant Coach of the Year award as the defensive coordinator at Duke.  Too bad he won’t get to defend against his own offense.  The Spartans scored just 13.8 points and produced 284 yards of total offense in 2009. 

Quarterback Jordan La Secla returns after passing for 1,926 yards at a 60% completion rate.  He tossed more interceptions than touchdown passes.

La Secla will have to make do without the top two receivers from last year.  Kevin Jurovich graduated, while Marquis Avery was declared academically ineligible.  Throw in the sudden departure of offensive coordinator Hugh Freeze to Arkansas State, and it looks like another long season on this side of the ball.

The running game was abysmal last year; don’t expect much improvement, after the Spartans averaged a meager 77 yards per game.

The offensive line is probably the strongest component of the offense, but it is still below average in the WAC. 

If MacIntyre can squeeze 17 points and 300 yards out of this offense, it will be a huge success.

Defense: San Jose State must replace four of their front seven defenders, so there won’t be much improvement on this side of the ball.  The Spartans didn’t fare much better on defense than offense last year. 

SJSU surrendered 259 rushing yards (6.1 yds./rush) last year, and with three of the front four having to be replaced against a slate of teams that can pound the ball down the field, the Spartans might actually fare worse this year.

All four starters return to the secondary.  Unfortunately, this quartet had to stop a lot of running plays last year and didn’t face many passing plays, as opponents ran the ball almost 65% of the time.

After giving up 35 points and 443 yards per game last year, the numbers could actually head south this year.  Look for maybe 36-40 points and 450-475 yards allowed.

Schedule:  By the time San Jose State faces a team they can beat, their players will be demoralized after beginning the season on the road with Alabama and Wisconsin. The Spartans will be 0-2, nursing a lot of bumps and bruises, and facing a scoring deficit of about 90-10!  They should find a way to beat Southern Utah in game three.  The following week finds them heading to Utah, where the Utes will remember the scare this team gave them last year.  Look for another blowout loss.  Then, SJSU faces UC Davis.  They should get a nice win in that one, but that will be their last of the season.  We see them losing all eight league games.

Team Utah State Aggies
               
Head Coach Gary Andersen
               
Colors Navy and White
               
City Logan, UT
               
2009 Record              
Conference 3-5
Overall 4-8
               
PiRate Rating 95.3
               
National Rating 72
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 4-4
Overall 5-7

 

Offense: Coach Gary Andersen was a defensive genius as Utah’s defensive coordinator.  In his first year in Logan, he looked more like Urban Meyer.  If it wasn’t for a couple of key injuries, Utah State might have been looking at a winning season and bowl bid this year for the first time since 1997.

Running back Robert Turpin tore his ACL earlier this year and appears to be out for the season.  He led the Aggies with close to 1,300 rushing yards.  In his place, Michael Smith will carry the load.  Don’t expect 1,300 yards, but Smith has breakaway speed and can turn a small hole into a big gain.

Quarterback Diondre Borel ranks with Nathan Enderle as one of the WAC’s two best passers not named Moore or Kaepernick.  Borel had a splendid junior season in 2009 passing for 2,885 yards with 17 touchdowns and only four interceptions. 

The Aggies had a lot of options in the passing game, but they have been henpecked with injuries.  Turpin was a great receiver out of the backfield.  2009’s top receiver, Stanley Morrison, caught 33 passed and averaged 19 yards per catch.  He is gone for the season with a broken foot.  Then, just before practice began, wide out Eric Moats dropped a refrigerator on his foot.  He needed stitches, and as of this writing, he has yet to practice.  Junior college star Matt Austin was supposed to be a starter last year, but he missed the entire season.  He returns and will have to live up to his potential immediately.

The offensive line returns four starters, so if Borel has any talent running routes, he will have time to find them. 

Even with all the injuries, we believe USU will move the ball and score points this year, just not enough to move from middle of the pack to within shouting distance of Fresno State.  Look for 25-30 points and 400-425 yards per game.

Defense: Defense was a major problem last year, as USU gave up 34 points and 455 yards per game.  They could not stop the run or the pass.  With eight starters returning, expect some form of improvement.

The three linebackers are as good as any other WAC unit short of Boise State.  Bobby Wagner, Kyle Gallagher, and Junior Keiaho should team for more than 200 tackles.  Hopefully, not too many will be more than five yards downfield.

The defensive line returns three starters, but there is nothing special up front.  Actually, new starter Levi Koskan recorded more three more sacks than the three returning starters, who recorded ZERO SACKS!

The secondary had no chance last year with no pass rush.  Two starters return, and the two new starters saw considerable action last year.

If the Aggies can trim a touchdown off their defensive scoring average, they have a shot to emerge as the fourth bowl eligible WAC team.  Look for the defense to yield 26-31 points and 425-450 yards.

Schedule: The Aggies start the season at Oklahoma.  Assuming they have any depth left after that game, they should slaughter Idaho State.  If they are relatively healthy, game three could determine whether or not they can get over the hump and become the Idaho of 2009.  The Fresno State game in Logan is a make or break game.

Following that game, USU plays at San Diego State and then hosts BYU on Friday, October 1.  They should go 1-3 out of league play, so they will need five WAC wins to become bowl eligible.  They will have to beat either Fresno State or Louisiana Tech plus Hawaii to get there.  We believe they will come up one win short.

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Mountain West Conference—Can anybody beat TCU?  Are there six bowl eligible teams?

August 28, 2009

2009 Western Athletic Conference Preview

2009 Western Athletic Conference Preview

A PiRate Look

In the fourth in our series of conference previews, we take a look at the Western Athletic Conference, where Boise State has dominated this loop like no other team has dominated their conference in the 21st Century.  The Broncos have never lost a home game in the WAC, and they have won six of seven conference titles.  It took a 12-0 Hawaii team in 2007 to edge them in Honolulu to prevent them from a total skunking of the league.  The 2009 WAC preview was the first conference where the staff at the PiRate Ratings had to discuss at length before issuing predictions.  The raw preseason ratings gave Utah State the third best beginning rating, but none of us believed the Aggies will finish there, even though we all agree they are very much improved this year.

Here are the preseason PiRate ratings for the league.  The ratings have been rounded to the nearest whole number even though we calculate them to two decimal places.  Thus, when you see multiple teams with the same rating, they are not actually exactly even.  To understand what the rating means, it is set so that 100 is average.  Thus, a rating of 90 means the team is 10 points weaker than the average team in the FBS.  The average of all 120 FBS teams should round to 100 if the math has been successfully calculated.

For those who have not followed the PiRate Ratings before and wonder about the home field advantage, we do not assign set in stone advantages.  These are assigned on a game-by-game basis.  For instance, if New Mexico State was to get really lucky and host Texas or Oklahoma, it would be expected that the Longhorn or Sooner fans would find a way to get to Las Cruces and make it a home game for the visiting team.  However, if that same Aggie team hosted Army a week after Army played at Air Force, then the Aggies could enjoy as much as five points in home field advantage.  The PiRates think it’s ridiculous to issue a blank home field advantage for all teams or even assign a range of set home field advantages.

   

Western Athletic Conference Preseason Ratings

     

 

Prediction *

 
    Team

PiRate

WAC

Overall

 
    Boise State

109

7-1

10-2

 
    Nevada

98

7-1

9-3

 
    Utah State

96

4-4

5-7

 
    Fresno State

95

6-2

7-5

 
    Louisiana Tech

94

5-3

7-5

 
    San Jose State

92

4-4

5-7

 
    Hawaii

86

1-7

3-10

 
    New Mexico State

78

1-7

2-10

 
    Idaho

75

1-7

1-11

 
     

 

 

 

 
    *  Predictions not based on PiRate Rating but  
    on expected changes to rating during the year  

 

Boise State: Can the Broncos run the table in the regular season yet again?  This year, we think that won’t happen for two reasons.  They have non-conference games against Oregon and Tulsa, and we think they will lose one of them.  Also, we believe Fresno State has an excellent shot to pull off the upset in conference play.  Now, we’re still picking BSU to win the conference, but we think it will be with one conference loss.

Quarterback Kellen Moore is already the second best passer in the WAC as a sophomore, and he should top 3,000 yards passing with 25-30 touchdown passes this year.  His percentage (69.4% in ’08) could drop a little because his receiving corps has less experience this season.  The running game could regress without former star Ian Johnson and with a question mark in the offensive line.

Defensively, there is a great deal of rebuilding to do in the front seven, where only two starters return.  The secondary is the strength of the team with safeties Jeron Johnson and George Iloka and cornerbacks Brandyn Thompson and Kyle Wilson leaps and bounds more talented than the next best WAC secondary.

Nevada: The Wolf Pack could play at Boise State on Black Friday with a chance to steal the conference championship.  If the game was played at Mackay Stadium, it might be a 50-50 proposition.  Nevada should have its best team this decade with most of the key elements returning to the defending top offense in the league and one of the best in the nation (509 total yards per game in ’08).

It all starts under center where quarterback Colin Kaepernick is the king of the WAC.  Last year, he rushed for 1,130 yards and passes for 2,849 yards, accounting for 39 touchdowns!  Factor out quarterback sacks, and he averaged over eight yards per rush.  He may rush less and pass more this year because Nevada returns the WAC’s top running back, a sure-handed wide receiver, and a tight end with great hands.  Add to it a strong recruiting class where one or two freshmen receivers could supply great depth.

That top running back is Vai Taua, who rushed for 1,521 yards with 15 touchdowns last year.  Taua reminds us some of Green Bay Packer Ryan Grant.  Behind Taua is a stable of able backs, so the Wolfpack should rush for 275-300 yards per game and could easily top six yards per rush again this season.

There are some new receivers this year, but they will be greatly aided by the fact that defense must try to stop or slow down the run first.  Look for Kaepernick to pass for around 250 yards per game.

The offensive line returns two excellent tackles.  Mike Gallett and Alonzo Durham both earned 2nd team All-WAC honors last year and both could make it to the first team this year.

Defensively, Nevada has liabilities, but they should be able to hold most opponents under 35 points.  With a team capable of easily topping 40 points per game, giving up 30 could be enough to challenge for the league crown.  The strength lies in the terminals as ends Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch combined for 36 tackles behind the line of scrimmage (21 ½ sacks).

The schedule may keep Nevada from a top 25 finish.  The Wolf Pack play at Notre Dame to open the season, and this game could be interesting for most of the day.  A road game at Colorado State could be the pivotal game.  Nevada can still have a decent year if they start 0-2, but they won’t challenge for the conference title after that.  A home game with a rebuilding Missouri team gives them a good shot at an upset, and the following game against UNLV should be exciting.  Unfortunately, the game with Boise State is on the field of blue, and we don’t believe Nevada is up to the task.  It looks like a second place finish and nine regular season wins.

Utah State: We double and triple-checked our statistical formula to make sure this rating was correct; it was.  The PiRate formula believes USU will be one of the five most improved teams in FBS football.  Personally, we believe they will be a better team, but not the third best in the WAC.

Gary Andersen takes over as head coach after serving as the defensive coordinator at Utah for five years.  The Aggies will shift to a no-huddle spread offense from the shotgun, and they have the talent on offense to make it go. 

Quarterback Diondre Borel isn’t as talented as the top passers in this league, but he should be able to approach 2,500 yards and 15-20 touchdowns.  A poor man’s Colin Kaepernick, Borel could approach 800 yards rushing as well.

Borel will have a boatload of average receivers at hand.  While none of them will be all-conference performers, the depth will allow Andersen to shuttle them in and keep them fresh.  Borel will need three of the receivers to step up because he has very little help in the backfield.

The offensive line will be stronger this season, and center Brennan McFadden will receive first place votes for all-WAC.  Look for the Aggies to rush for about 125 yards per game and pass for about 225.  It should give them a great shot at averaging more than 25 points per game for the first time in eight years.

The defense was really weak in 2008, and they face an added obstacle trying to improve this year.  USU games averaged 136 plays per game last year, and with the new offense, they will probably average close to 150 plays this year.  That should lead to about seven more defensive plays, so the Aggies will yield 30-35 points and 400 total yards per game again this year.

What will keep State from posting a winning record is their killer schedule.  Out of conference, they travel to Utah, Texas A&M, and BYU.  Only a home game with Southern Utah will give them a win prior to conference play.  What hurts more is that the weakest conference opponents host the Aggies, while the strongest teams come to Logan.  USU will not upset Boise State or Nevada at home, but Idaho, Hawaii, and New Mexico State cannot be counted as automatic wins.  It adds up to another losing season, but the Aggies could pull off an upset along the way.

Fresno State: The Bulldogs are almost always a tough team to beat, but they always lose to somebody they should have beaten.  That’s why FSU has always been the bridesmaid and never the bride in the WAC.  This year, Coach Pat Hill has enough talent on hand to play head-to-head at home with Boise State, but they could also lose to teams like San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, and even Utah State.

What’s keeping the Bulldogs from seriously challenging Boise State is an experienced quarterback.  Hill has stated that three different players will see playing time early in the season.  Whoever ends up as the regular will have one of the league’s top receivers as well as three other really good receivers at the other end of those passes.  Look for Seyi Ajirotutu to appear on the nation’s receiving leaders.  He could top 1,000 yards in receptions.

Three running backs who each topped 600 yards rushing return this year.  Anthony Harding, Lonyae Miller, and Ryan Matthews combined for 2,250 rushing yards and 19 scores, and they should top that mark this year.

The offensive line needs two new tackles, and with a new quarterback, that could mean a few extra sacks and interceptions. 

The Bulldog defense surrendered 31 points and 411 yards per game in 2008, and those figures are going to drop this season.  We see them coming in at 26 points and 380 yards.  The top four tacklers return from last year, as well as the top two pass defenders.  Look for middle linebacker Ben Jacobs to play for pay in two years.  He made 113 tackles and broke up five passes in 2008.  He’ll be an excellent Tampa 2 defender.

The schedule is manageable, and if the ball bounces the right way, Fresno could pull off a couple of road upsets against teams from BCS conferences.  We don’t see them winning at Illinois, but Cincinnati and Wisconsin are not impossible this year.  UC Davis provides an easy opening win, and all three quarterbacks could get some positive game experience.  The Boise State game is at Bulldog Stadium on Friday night, September 18.

Louisiana Tech: Long-time Georgia football coach Vince Dooley won more than 200 games in a quarter century in Athens.  Most of those teams moved the football by the rush.  Now, his son Derek is following in his footsteps.  Louisiana Tech may line up in the one back offense like most teams these days, but they still deliver the goods by running the ball more than 60% of the time.  Running back Daniel Porter rushed for 1,164 yards and nine touchdowns last year, and he’ll be running behind an offensive line that returns intact from last year.  He could top 1,500 yards this year.

The Bulldogs will not challenge for the WAC title this year unless the passing game improves by 50% or more.  Returning quarterback Ross Jenkins completed just 52.9% of his passes last year for only 1,155 yards and seven scores.  He needs to increase that number to 1,700 yards or more or else the offense will bog down against the WAC teams with good run defenses.  Phillip Livas is the best receiver on the team, but he will need some support.

Defensively, the Bulldogs will be tough again up front.  After allowing just 104 rushing yards per game in 2008, there’s a good chance that number will drop to double digits this season.  All four starting defensive linemen return as does three of the second team quartet.  The problem for LT is that they couldn’t stop an average passing attack last year, and unless some new secondary members become stars, the Bulldogs could give up 275 passing yards per game again this year.

The schedule begins with road games against Auburn and Navy.  The Bulldogs could start 0-2 and just as easily could start 2-0.  If they upset the Tigers and handle the Midshipmen, they should be 4-0 when they play Nevada in Reno on Friday night, October 9.  Boise State is a home game also played on a Friday night.  The only certain loss on the schedule this year is a game at LSU on November 14.  If the Bulldogs come up with any semblance of a passing game and pass defense, they could contend for the conference title.  Of course, conference titles are rather common in the Dooley family, with papa Vince and Uncle Bill owning a bundle of them.

San Jose State: Until the Spartans learn how to move the ball and score points, they will remain in the middle of the pack in the WAC.  SJSU averaged a paltry 283 total yards per game last year and less than 20 points per game.  The defense stayed on the field too long, and it collapsed late in the season.

The Spartans could only gain 87 rushing yards per game in 2008, and to make matters worse, they lost their only decent rusher.  That number should move into triple digits this year, even with a raw set of backs toting the pigskin.  All five starting offensive linemen from last year return.

Quarterback Kyle Reed could be one of the most improved quarterbacks in the league this year.  If a couple of competent receivers can be found, and if tight end Terrance Williams can continue to improve, we project that Reed could pass for more than 200 yards per game with a better TD/INT ratio this year (9/6 in ’08).  If the receivers don’t come through, then SJSU will continue to falter with an anemic offense.

The Spartan defense returns a top-flight front seven, but the back four could be suspect.  End Carl Ihenacho will compete for 1st team All-WAC honors this year after recording 18 ½ tackles behind the line with seven sacks last year.  Brother Duke Ihenacho anchors the second line of defense.  He recorded 5 ½ tackles behind the line, intercepted five passes, and broke up six others.

The secondary surrendered just 170 passing yards last year, but with three new starters, that number could inflate by 35-50 yards per game.

The schedule is the big bugaboo for the Spartans.  An opening game at Southern Cal, followed by a home game with Utah and a game up the road at Stanford could leave them at 0-3.  Fresno State, Boise State, and Louisiana Tech are also road games, so San Jose State would have to beat everybody else on their schedule to repeat the 6-6 record of last year.

Hawaii: June Jones is now two seasons removed from Hawaii, and the downslide in Honolulu will continue.  The Warriors no longer have the devastating passing game that can outscore opponents regardless of how porous the defense might be.  Now, the defense will be even weaker, while the offense is run of the mill.  It all adds up to a major drop in the standings.

The Warriors return just a pair of starters from a defense that yielded 29 points and 361 total yards per game.  Expect those numbers to climb to 35 points and 425 yards allowed.  The secondary will be torn to shreds by Moore, Kaepernick, Borel, and a few others.  Nary a player on the roster has ever started a game in the defensive backfield.

The front seven is only marginally more experienced as end John Fonoti and linebacker Brashton Satele return, but they were not major contributors last season.

The offense is pedestrian at best.  Without Jones and the great passing of Colt Brennan, Hawaii’s numbers fell from 43 to 25 points and 512 to 346 total yards per game.  Quarterback Greg Alexander returns after sharing starting duties last year.  Alexander has experience and depth in his receiving unit, so the Hawaii passing numbers should jump from about 250 to near 300 yards per game this year.

The running game needs improvement, but it’s doubtful those numbers will increase this year.  We figure Hawaii will be forced to pass more due to having to attempt to come back from deficits, and the offensive line may not be up to the task to open enough running lanes.

Another major problem this year are the special teams.  UH couldn’t keep a kicker on campus and didn’t know who would start until Scott Enos arrived late from a junior college.  A true freshman will be the punter.

The schedule is always tough when every road game travels from two to five time zones.  The road games this year find Hawaii travelling to Washington State, UNLV, Louisiana Tech, Idaho, Nevada, and San Jose State.  We believe they will go 0-6 in these games.  Navy, Wisconsin, and Central Arkansas visit Honolulu, as well as conference foes Fresno State, Boise State, Utah State, and New Mexico State.  It looks like the Warriors could be headed to double digit losses this year.

NOTE: Satele out for the season with a shoulder injury

New Mexico State: The Hal Mumme era is over in Las Cruces, and the Aggies could do no better than 4-8 during his tenure.  Enter DeWayne Walker, the former defensive coordinator at UCLA.  Walker’s Bruin defense held Southern Cal to nine points in a 2006 upset, and he coached UCLA in the 2007 Las Vegas Bowl after Karl Dorrell left.

Walker made some major changes when he assumed control.  Gone is the spread passing formation replaced by a more balanced attack.  With NMSU career passing leader Chase Holbrook gone, the job will be inherited by junior college transfer Jeff Fleming.  Expect the Aggie passing attack to shrink from over 300 passing yards per game to just over 200 yards per game.  Running backs Marquell Colston, Tommy Glenn, and Ronald Opetaia will get more carries this year after combining for 683 yards last year.  They will be running behind a line with about the same experience as last year’s line, but the extra rushing attempts (and the reduction in sacks from 44 by almost half) should add up to about 100 rushing yards per game compared to an NCAA 2nd worst 55.

The defense will begin to make strides toward respectability this year.  After surrendering 34 points and 380 yards per game last year, even with massive losses on the stop side.  A fine duo at linebacker returns in Jason Scott and Nick Paden.  The front four has no returning starters, so the pass rush and defense against the run should suffer some early until Walker can “coach ‘em up.”

The schedule gives NMSU a chance to get off to a fast start, and the Aggies could gain some confidence early.  They open at home against Idaho, and that game should be a toss-up.  Next, they host Prairie View.  That will be the last game where they will be favored to win.  Road trips to Ohio State, Boise State, and Louisiana Tech should be unpleasant.

Idaho: Coach Robb Akey’s Vandals doubled their win total last year from the year before, but unfortunately that meant a 2-10 record after a 1-11 record in 2007.  Idaho has not finished over .500 since 1999, and that streak will not end this year.

Quarterback Nathan Enderle returns this year after passing for more than 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns last year.  He also tossed 17 interceptions, but he often had to run for his life due to poor pass blocking.  The pass blocking may actually be weaker this year, so expect another year of turnovers.

The running backs may take some of the heat off the passing game.  Donte Jackson and Princeton McCarty combined for 1,176 yards, and Jackson has the potential to be a 1,000 yard rusher.

The passing game could suffer due to the loss of top receiver Eddie Williams, who had more than double the receptions of anybody else on the squad.

The defense was horrible last year, giving up 43 points and 472 yards per game!  Don’t expect much improvement this year, because three of the five decent defenders from last year have graduated.  The defensive line has no pass rushing threats, and the linebacking unit took a major hit.  The secondary returns three starters, but none of them would start at most of the other WAC schools.

The schedule is a killer for this team, and if the Vandals fail to win at New Mexico State in the season opener, it’s going to be a hard road to find a win on the schedule.  A home tilt against Hawaii could be the only other winnable game this year.

Next up: A look at Conference USA. Can this conference finally supply an at-large participant in a BCS Bowl?

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