2015 AFC North Preview

Three of the four AFC North teams have won at least two division titles in the past six years.  Only Cleveland has yet to get into the race, and we see much of the same again this year.  Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh could all finish 10-6.  Pittsburgh’s offense is good enough to score 450 points, but their defense might give up 400.  Baltimore has a defense capable of dominating with an offense that is inconsistent.  Cincinnati is not as strong offensively as Pittsburgh or defensively as Baltimore, but they are better offensively than Baltimore and defensively than Pittsburgh.

 

Baltimore breaks in yet another offensive coordinator after Gary Kubiak went to Denver.  Deposed Bears’ head coach Mark Trestman comes to the Harbor when the team has reeled in an incredible catch for QB Joe Flacco.  Breshad Perriman arrives from Central Florida, where the speedster’s slash line of 50/1044/9 foretells future greatness on Sundays.

 

Cincinnati is looking for its fifth consecutive playoff appearance.  Maybe one of these years, the Bengals will actually win a playoff game.  Fans and media alike blame QB Andy Dalton, but the last time we checked, Dalton did not have massive holes open up in the defensive line, nor did he drop any passes thrown right at his numbers.  Dalton is more a reason why the Bengals are in the playoffs and not the reason they lose in the first round.  Last year, Cincinnati swept Baltimore.

 

After week 12, the AFC North standings looked like this:

Cincinnati  7-3-1

Cleveland  7-4-0

Baltimore  7-4-0

Pittsburgh 7-4-0

Yes, Cleveland was right in the thick of the race and had wins over Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.  Four of their final games were against playoff teams, while the fifth came against a team that went 9-7.  The Browns dropped all five games to finish 7-9, and now most pundits believe they will not match that win total this year.

 

Pittsburgh enters 2015 without two defensive icons in the Steel City.  Troy Polamalu retired, while defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau resigned and took the head defensive position with the Tennessee Titans.  The Steel Curtain Defense has become moth-eaten, and Pittsburgh may have to outscore opponents in shootouts to get back to the playoffs.

 

Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Kamar Aiken
WR	Breshad Perriman
WR	Steve Smith
TE	Crockett Gillmore
LT	Eugene Monroe
LG	Kelechi Osemele
C	Jeremy Zuttah
RG	Marshal Yanda
RT	Ricky Wagner
QB	Joe Flacco
HB	Justin Forsett
FB	Kyle Zuszczyk
Defense
DE/DT	Timmy Jernigan
DT	Brandon Williams
DE	Chris Canty
LB	Terrell Suggs
LB	C. J. Mosley
LB	Daryl Smith
LB	Courtney Upshaw
CB	Ladarius Webb
S	Will Hill
S	Kendrick Lewis
CB	Jimmy Smith
N5	Kyle Arrington
Special
Kicker	Justin Tucker
Punter	Sam Koch
KR	Asa Jackson
PR	Michael Campanero

Baltimore Ravens
Head Coach	John Harbaugh
Off. Coordinator	Marc Trestman
Def. Coordinator	Dean Pees
2014 W-L-T	10-6-0
Pts	25.6
Opp	18.9
Ratings
PiRate	106.7
Mean	105.1
Bias	108.2
Average	106.7
Grades
Running	C
Passing	B
Vs. Run	A-
Vs. Pass	B+
Special Teams	A
Coaching + Intangibles	A
Predicted W-L	9-7-0
Division Rank	1
Conference Rank	2
Overall Rank	4
Postseason	Yes

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	A. J. Green
WR	Mohamed Sanu
TE	Tyler Eifert
TE	Ryan Hewitt
LT	Andrew Whitworth
LG	Clint Boling
C	Russell Bodine
RG	Kevin Zeitler
RT	Andre Smith
QB	Andy Dalton
HB	Jeremy Hill
FB	Mark Weisman
Defense
DE	Carlos Dunlap
DT	Domata Peko
DT	Geno Atkins
DE	Michael Johnson
LB	Emmanuel Lamur
LB	Rey Maualuga
LB	Vontaze Burfict
CB	Dre Kirkpatrick
S	George Iloka
S	Reggie Nelson
CB	Adam Jones
N5	Leon Hall
Special
Kicker	Mike Nugent
Punter	Kevin Huber
KR	Brandon Tate
PR	Adam Jones

Cincinnati Bengals
Head Coach	Marvin Lewis
Off. Coordinator	Hue Jackson
Def. Coordinator	Paul Guenther
2014 W-L-T	10-5-1
Pts	22.8
Opp	21.5
Ratings
PiRate	102.9
Mean	103.3
Bias	102.9
Average	103.0
Grades
Running	B+
Passing	C+
Vs. Run	B-
Vs. Pass	B
Special Teams	B+
Coaching + Intangibles	C+
Predicted W-L	10-6-0
Division Rank	2
Conference Rank	5
Overall Rank	9
Postseason	Yes

 

Cleveland Browns

Browns Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Andrew Hawkins
WR	Brian Hartline
WR	Taylor Gabriel
TE	Gary Barnidge
LT	Joe Thomas
LG	Joel Bitonio
C	Alex Mack
RG	John Greco
RT	Mitchell Schwartz
QB	Josh McCown
HB	Isaiah Crowell
FB	Luke Lundy
Defense
DE	Randy Starks
DT	Phil Taylor
DE	Desmond Bryant
LB	Paul Kruger
LB	Chris Kirksey
LB	Karlos Dansby
LB	Scott Solomon
CB	Tramon Williams
S	Donte Whitner
S	Tashaun Gipson
CB	Joe Haden
N5	K’Waun Williams
Special
Kicker	Carey Spear or Travis Coons
Punter	Andy Lee
KR	Marlin Moore
PR	Travis Benjamin

Cleveland Browns
Head Coach	Mike Pettine
Off. Coordinator	John DeFilippo
Def. Coordinator	Jim O’Neil
2014 W-L-T	7-9-0
Pts	18.7
Opp	21.1
Ratings
PiRate	95.4
Mean	92.7
Bias	95.6
Average	94.6
Grades
Running	C
Passing	C-
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	B+
Special Teams	D
Coaching + Intangibles	C-
Predicted W-L	6-10-0
Division Rank	4
Conference Rank	13
Overall Rank	27
Postseason	No

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Antonio Brown
WR	Markus Wheaton
WR	Martavis Bryant
TE	Heath Miller
LT	Kelvin Beachum
LG	Ramon Foster
C	Cody Wallace
RG	David DeCastro
RT	Marcus Gilbert
QB	Ben Roethlisberger
HB	Le’Veon Bell
FB	Will Johnson
Defense
DE	Cameron Hayward
DT	Steve McLendon
DE	Stephon Tuitt
LB	Arthur Moats
LB	Ryan Shazier
LB	Lawrence Timmons
LB	Jarvis Jones
CB	Cortez Allen
S	Shamarko Thomas
S	Mike Mitchell
CB	William Gay
N5	Brandon Boykin
Special
Kicker	Garrett Hartley
Punter	Brad Wing
KR	Markus Wheaton
PR	Antonio Brown

Pittsburgh Steelers
Head Coach	Mike Tomlin
Off. Coordinator	Todd Haley
Def. Coordinator	Keith Butler
2014 W-L-T	11-5-0
Pts	27.3
Opp	23.0
Ratings
PiRate	102.8
Mean	102.8
Bias	102.5
Average	102.7
Grades
Running	B+
Passing	A
Vs. Run	C-
Vs. Pass	C-
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	C+
Predicted W-L	8-8-0
Division Rank	3
Conference Rank	6
Overall Rank	11
Postseason	No

 

2013 AFC North Preview

2013 A F C North Preview

The AFC North Division returns the defending Super Bowl Champion this year, but the Baltimore Ravens have lost a lot of veteran talent from that team.

 

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

 

Here are the official colors for the AFC North

 

South	Color	Red	Green	Blue
Baltimore Ravens	Purple	36	23	115
	Black	17	28	36
	Metallic Gold	176	140	13
Cincinnati Bengals	Orange	249	70	28
	Black	17	28	36
Cleveland Browns	Brown	51	43	42
	Orange	249	70	28
Pittsburgh Steelers	Black	17	28	36
	Gold	255	182	18

 

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Cincinnati Bengals	103.5	103.7	103.8	10-6-0	391	320
Baltimore Ravens	102.5	102.9	103.2	10-6-0	398	344
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.0	100.8	101.4	8-8-0	336	314
Cleveland Browns	95.0	95.4	95.7	5-11-0	302	368

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Baltimore Ravens	105.0	104.2	105.3
Cincinnati Bengals	102.5	102.7	102.6
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.7	100.0	100.5
Cleveland Browns	94.4	95.4	94.8

 

PiRate Previews

Team	Baltimore Ravens
Head Coach	John Harbaugh
O-Coord.	Jim Caldwell
D-Coord.	Dean Pees
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Joe Flacco
Running Back	Ray Rice
H-Back	Vonta Leach
Wide Receiver	Torrey Smith
Wide Receiver	Jacoby Jones
Tight End	Ed Dickson
Left Tackle	Bryant McKinnie
Left Guard	Kelechi Osemele
Center	Gino Gradkowski
Right Guard	Marshal Yanda
Right Tackle	Michael Oher
	Defense
Left End	Arthur Jones
Nose Tackle	Haloti Ngata
Right End	Chris Canty
Left OLB	Terrell Suggs
Left ILB	Josh Bynes
Right ILB	Daryl Smith
Right OLB	Elvis Dumervil
Left CB	Ladarius Webb
Right CB	Corey Graham
Strong Safety	James Ihedigbo
Free Safety	Michael Huff
	Special Teams
Kicker	Justin Tucker
Punter	Sam Koch
K-Return	Jacoby Jones
P-Return	Jacoby Jones
Predictions
Record	10-6
Division	1st Tie (1st in tiebreaker)

 

 

Team	Cincinnati Bengals
Head Coach	Marvin Lewis
O-Coord.	Jay Gruden
D-Coord.	Mike Zimmer
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Andy Dalton
Running Back	BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Fullback	Orson Charles
Wide Receiver	A. J. Green
Wide Receiver	Mohamed Sanu
Tight End	Jermaine Gresham
Left Tackle	Andrew Whitworth
Left Guard	Clint Boling
Center	Kyle Cook
Right Guard	Kevin Zeitler
Right Tackle	Andre Smith
	Defense
Left End	Carlos Dunlap
Nose Tackle	Domata Peko
Right Tackle	Geno Atkins
Right End	Michael Johnson
Sam LB	James Harrison
Mike LB	Rey Maualuga
Will LB	Vontaze Burfict
Left CB	Terrence Newman
Right CB	Leon Hall
Strong Safety	George Iloka
Free Safety	Reggie Nelson
	Special Teams
Kicker	Mike Nugent
Punter	Kevin Huber
K-Return	Brandon Tate
P-Return	Adam Jones
Predictions
Record	10-6
Division	1st Tie (2nd in tiebreaker)

 

Team	Cleveland Browns
Head Coach	Rob Chudzinski
O-Coord.	Norv Turner
D-Coord.	Ray Horton
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Brandon Weeden
Running Back	Trent Richardson
Fullback	Chris Ogbonnaya
Wide Receiver	Josh Gordon
Wide Receiver	Greg Little
Tight End	Jordan Cameron
Left Tackle	Joe Thomas
Left Guard	John Greco
Center	Alex Mack
Right Guard	Shaun Lauvao
Right Tackle	Mitchell Schwartz
	Defense
Left End	Ahtyba Rubin
Nose Tackle	Phil Taylor
Right End	Desmond Bryant
Left OLB	Paul Kruger
Left ILB	Craig Robertson
Right ILB	D’Qwell Jackson
Right OLB	Jabaal Sheard
Left CB	Joe Haden
Right CB	Buster Skrine
Strong Safety	T. J. Ward
Free Safety	Tashaun Gipson
	Special Teams
Kicker	Shayne Graham
Punter	Spencer Lanning
K-Return	Johnson Bademosi
P-Return	Travis Benjamin
Predictions
Record	7-9
Division	4th

 

Team	Pittsburgh Steelers
Head Coach	Mike Tomlin
O-Coord.	Todd Haley
D-Coord.	Dick Lebeau
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Ben Roethlisberger
Running Back	Isaac Redman
Fullback	Will Johnson
Wide Receiver	Emmanuel Sanders
Wide Receiver	Antonio Brown
Tight End	Heath Miller
Left Tackle	Mike Adams
Left Guard	Ramon Foster
Center	Maurkice Pouncey
Right Guard	David DeCastro
Right Tackle	Marcus Gilbert
	Defense
Left End	Ziggy Hood
Nose Tackle	Steve McLendon
Right End	Brett Keisel
Left OLB	Lamarr Woodley
Left ILB	Larry Foote
Right ILB	Lawrence Timmons
Right OLB	Jason Worilds
Left CB	Cortez Allen
Right CB	Ike Taylor
Strong Safety	Troy Polamalu
Free Safety	Ryan Clark
	Special Teams
Kicker	Shaun Suisham
Punter	Drew Butler
K-Return	Emmanuel Sanders
P-Return	Antonio Brown
Predictions
Record	8-8
Division	3rd

 

PiRate Ratings Super Bowl XLVII Preview

Super Bowl XLVII

Teams: Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers

Date: Sunday, February 3, 2013

Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA

Kickoff: 6:30 PM EST

Television: CBS

Radio: Sirius XM & Dial Global Radio Network

 

 

Tale of the Tape

 

Results

Baltimore (13-6-0)

Opponent	Bal	Opp
Cincinnati	44	13
at Philadelphia	23	24
New England	31	30
Cleveland	23	16
at Kansas City	9	6
Dallas	31	29
at Houston	13	43
at Cleveland	25	15
Oakland	55	20
at Pittsburgh	13	10
at San Diego	16	13 ot
Pittsburgh	20	23
at Washington	28	31 ot
Denver	17	34
N. Y. Giants	33	14
at Cincinnati	17	23
Playoffs
Indianapolis	24	9
at Denver	38	35  2ot
at New England	28	13

 

San Francisco (13-4-1)

Opponent	SF	Opp
at Green Bay	30	22
Detroit	27	19
at Minnesota	13	24
at N. Y. Jets	34	0
Buffalo	45	3
N. Y. Giants	3	26
Seattle	13	6
at Arizona	24	3
St. Louis	24	24 ot
Chicago	32	7
at New Orleans	31	21
at St. Louis	13	16 ot
Miami	27	13
at New England	41	34
at Seattle	13	42
Arizona	27	13
Playoffs
Green Bay	45	31
at Atlanta	28	24

 

Statistics

Passing

Baltimore NAME	ATT	COMP	PCT	YDS	YD/ATT	YDS/G	TD	INT	SACKS
Joe Flacco	531	317	59.7	3817	7.2	224.4	22	10	35
San Francisco
Colin Kaepernick	218	136	62.4	1814	8.3	130.9	10	3	16
Alex Smith	218	153	70.2	1737	8	160	13	6	24

 

Receiving

Baltimore

NAME	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	YDS/G	YAC
Anquan Boldin	65	921	14.2	4	43	61.4	238
Torrey Smith	49	855	17.4	8	54	53.4	238
Dennis Pitta	61	669	11	7	61	41.8	264
Ray Rice	61	478	7.8	1	43	29.9	452
Jacoby Jones	30	406	13.5	1	47	25.4	102

 

San Francisco

NAME	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	YDS/G	YAC
Michael Crabtree	85	1105	13	9	49	69.1	465
Vernon Davis	41	548	13.4	5	53	34.3	173
Mario Manningham	42	449	10.7	1	40	37.4	183
Randy Moss	28	434	15.5	3	55	27.1	74
Delanie Walker	21	344	16.4	3	45	21.5	59
Frank Gore	28	234	8.4	1	26	14.6	210

 

Rushing

Baltimore

NAME	ATT	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD	YDS/G	FUM	LOST
Ray Rice	257	1143	4.4	46	9	71.4	1	0
Bernard Pierce	108	532	4.9	78	1	33.3	0	0

 

San Francisco

NAME	ATT	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD	YDS/G	FUM	LOST
Frank Gore	258	1214	4.7	37	8	75.9	2	1
Colin Kaepernick	63	415	6.6	50	5	31.9	7	2
Kendall Hunter	72	371	5.2	26	2	33.7	0	0

 

Kicking

Baltimore

NAME	XPM	XPA	FGM	FGA	PCT	LONG	1-19	20-29	30-39	40-49	50+	PTS
Justin Tucker	42	42	30	33	90.9	56	0-0	8-8	8-8	10-13	4-4	132

 

San Francisco

NAME	XPM	XPA	FGM	FGA	PCT	LONG	1-19	20-29	30-39	40-49	50+	PTS
David Akers	44	44	29	42	69.0	63	1-1	8-9	11-13	7-13	2-6	131

 

Punting

Baltimore

NAME	PUNTS	YDS	LONG	AVG	NET	BLK	IN-20	TB	FC	% RET	R-AVG
Sam Koch	83	3911	60	47.1	40.8	0	28	7	13	59	7.8

 

San Francisco

NAME	PUNTS	YDS	LONG	AVG	NET	BLK	IN-20	TB	FC	% RET	R-AVG
Andy Lee	67	3226	66	48.1	43.2	0	36	4	18	53.7	6.9

 

Kick Returns

Baltimore

NAME	KR	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Jacoby Jones	38	1167	30.7	108	2
Deonte Thompson	15	389	25.9	49	0

 

San Francisco

NAME	KR	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
LaMichael James	14	417	29.8	62	0
Kyle Williams	13	353	27.2	94	0
Ted Ginn	11	253	23	31	0

 

Punt Returns

Baltimore

NAME	PR	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD	FC
Jacoby Jones	37	341	9.2	63	1	16

 

San Francisco

NAME	PR	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD	FC
Ted Ginn	32	326	10.2	38	0	12

 

Depth Charts

When Baltimore Has The Ball

Baltimore Offense
Pos	No.	Name
WR	81	Anquan Boldin
LT	74	Michael Oher
LG	73	Marshal Yanda
C	77	Matt Birk
RG	63	Bobbie Williams
RT	72	Kelechi Osemele
TE	88	Dennis Pitta
WR	82	Torrey Smith
QB	5	Joe Flacco
RB	27	Ray Rice
FB	44	Vonta Leach
TE2	86	Billy Bajema
WR3	12	Jacoby Jones

 

San Francisco Defense
Pos	No.	Name
LE	91	Ray McDonald
NT	90	Isaac Sopoaga
RE	94	Justin Smith
LOLB	55	Ahmad Brooks
LILB	53	NaVorro Bowman
RILB	52	Patrick Willis
ROLB	99	Aldon Smith
LCB	22	Carlos Rogers
RCB	25	Tarell Brown
SS	31	Donte Whitner
FS	38	Dashon Goldson
5₵	29	Chris Culliver
10₵	20	Perrish Cox

 

When San Francisco Has The Ball

San Francisco Offense
Pos	No.	Name
WR	15	Michael Crabtree
LT	74	Joe Staley
LG	77	Mike Iupati
C	59	Jonathan Goodwin
RG	75	Alex Boone
RT	76	Anthony Davis
TE	85	Vernon Davis
WR	84	Randy Moss
QB	7	Colin Kaepernick
RB	21	Frank Gore
FB	49	Bruce Miller
TE2	46	Delanie Walker
WR3	19	Ted Ginn

 

Baltimore Defense
Pos	No.	Name
LE	90	Pernell McPhee
NT	96	Ma’ake Kemoeatu
RE	92	Haloti Ngata
LOLB	91	Courtney Upshaw
LILB	52	Ray Lewis
RILB	49	Josh Bynes
ROLB	50	Albert McClellan
LCB	24	Corey Graham
RCB	29	Cary Williams
SS	32	James Ihedigbo
FS	20	Ed Reed
5₵	23	Chykie Brown
10₵	22	Jimmy Smith

 

Special Teams

Baltimore

Pos	No.	Name
K	9	Justin Tucker
P	4	Sam Koch
KR	12	Jacoby Jones
PR	12	Jacoby Jones

 

San Francisco

Pos	No.	Name
K	2	David Akers
P	4	Andy Lee
KR	19	Ted Ginn
PR	19	Ted Ginn

 

100 Simulations

Wins

San Francisco 57  Baltimore 43 (5 Simulations Decided by Overtime)

 

Average Score

San Francisco 25.53  Baltimore 22.91

 

Standard Deviation

13.44

 

Outliers

San Francisco 38  Baltimore 12

Baltimore 35  San Francisco 10

 

Selection Information

Line: San Francisco by 3 ½

 

Totals: 47 ½

 

Money Line: San Francisco -175  Baltimore +155

 

Computer Ratings

PiRate: San Francisco by 3.8

 

PiRate Mean: San Francisco by 3.4

 

PiRate Bias: San Francisco by 4.2

 

PiRate Vintage: San Francisco by 2.0

 

PICKS

The PiRate Playoff Picks are 12-5-0 against the spread this year for 70.6%.  We could play use multiple selections and still be playing with house money, but we are a bit too conservative for this.  The simulations show this game to be rather risky with one of the highest standard deviations ever for a Super Bowl.

 

Our tendency is to select the underdog when the game looks like a wild one in the making.  Also, we tend to believe that the first half will be lower scoring than the second half.  If you play exotics, like halftime lines, then you might find value there.  We do not like these gimmick selections.

 

We can do one thing that sounds reasonable, and that is to believe this game will be relatively close and will stay within certain boundaries.  If we go with a 13-point Teaser with both sides and both totals, we can hope for a close game that is neither overly high-scoring or low-scoring.  Making just one selection guarantees we will be 66.7% at the worst for the playoffs and possibly 72.2% if we win.

 

Normally, we would run away from a 13-point teaser when the line is 3 ½ and the Total is 47 ½, because these are bad numbers to tease.  However, in most of our models, we see both teams scoring between 20 and 30 points, and that gives this selection a strong chance in our eyes.

 

 

13-point Teaser Pick For Super Bowl

 

4-selection parlay

San Francisco +9 ½

Baltimore +16 ½

OVER 34 ½

UNDER 60 ½

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Conference Championship Game Previews–January 20, 2013

The PiRate Simulator gave back some booty to the mean Vegas Buccaneers last week, going 2-3 in the Divisional Round selections.  This brings the playoff selections results to 10-4.  We cannot lose now, because there are only three games left in which to make selections, and we will not go 0-6.  So, we are playing with house booty.

 

Sunday, January 20, 2013

 

San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1) at Atlanta Falcons (14-3-0)

 

Time: 3:00 PM EST

 

TV: Fox

 

Georgia Dome Forecast: Indoors

 

 

 

PiRate: San Francisco by 1.1

 

PiRate Mean: San Francisco by 0.2

 

PiRate Bias: San Francisco by 0.5

 

PiRate Vintage: Atlanta by 2.0

 

 

 

Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4

 

Totals: 49

 

Money Line:  San Francisco -XXX  Atlanta +XXX

 

 

 

100 Computer Simulations: Atlanta 52 San Francisco 48

 

Average Score: Atlanta 24.6  San Francisco 24.4

 

Standard Deviation: 7.4

 

Outlier Home: Atlanta 30  San Francisco 10

 

Outlier Visitor: San Francisco 19  Atlanta 7

 

Outlier High: 62 Points

 

Outlier Low:  24 Points

 

 

 

PiRate Captain Says: The computer calls this game a statistical dead heat.  We believe possibly that the 49ers are going to find the Falcon defense prepared and ready to slow down Colin Kaepernick and the college-style offense.  Until one of these zone-read option QB’s actually wins a Super Bowl, we are going with the belief that a standard drop-back passer and a prepared defense will win every time when there are just four teams left in the playoffs.

 

 

 

It is just gravy that we get the Falcons as home ‘dogs.  They have the added incentive of being the overlooked team of the four that are left, and we believe Matt Ryan and company are primed to have one of those very memorable games.

 

Baltimore Ravens (12-6-0) at New England Patriots (13-4-0)

Time: 6:30 PM EST

TV: CBS

Gillette Stadium Forecast: Clear with temperatures falling from the low 30’s to the low 20’s during the game

 

PiRate: New England by 10.8

PiRate Mean: New England by 9.2

PiRate Bias: New England by 7.9

PiRate Vintage: New England by 6.7

 

Vegas Line: New England by 9

Totals: 51 ½

Money Line:  New England –XXX  Baltimore +XXX

 

100 Computer Simulations: New England 62  Baltimore 38

Average Score: New England 29.4  Baltimore 23.6

Standard Deviation: 8.4

Outlier Home: New England 48  Baltimore 17

Outlier Visitor: Baltimore 41  New England 20

Outlier High: 79 points

Outlier Low: 44 points

 

PiRate Captain Says: Asking New England to win by double digits in a grudge game rematch of last year’s AFC Championship is asking too much in our opinion. The Patriots should win the game, but we believe that 9 times out of 10, this game would have an outcome with the margin under 7 points, no matter which team won.  We’ll go with those odds and take the Underdog and the points.

 

The weather should be very cold, but dry and not too windy.  Tom Brady and Joe Flacco should provide three hours of quality entertainment and bring this game down to yet another last possession outcome.  Remember in the past though that almost every rematch of a conference championship game has been won by the team that won the year before. 

 

Green Bay won the Ice Bowl rematch with Dallas in 1967 after winning a close one in 1966.  Pittsburgh won the rematch with Houston in 1978 and 1979.  This game ranks up there with those games in historical importance.  It also doesn’t hurt that Green Bay and Pittsburgh were the home teams for those games, and New England is for this one.

 

 

Selections

1. Baltimore +9 ½ vs. New England

2. Atlanta +4 vs. San Francisco

 

3. 10-point Teaser

Baltimore +19 ½ vs. New England

Atlanta +14 vs. San Francisco

Baltimore and New England OVER 41 ½

 

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010

Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers.  We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship. So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today. 2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread. We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact. For instance, we made just one selection last week.  It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won.  We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick.  We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog.  All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection. We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from.  We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition. We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon.  Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift.  We hope it is a winning one.  Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy. Here it is: We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser.  For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games.  If all four games win, you win the parlay.  If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose. There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser.  Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two.  Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog.  If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points.  That is not in your favor.  Winning teams often win games by 14 points.   Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog.  Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog.  Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18. Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog.  A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog. Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals.  If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10. The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection.  Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite.  Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference.  One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection.  However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog.  The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay. If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game.  For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15. Here is our Christmas gift to you. 1. 13-point teaser parlay Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis   Here is our reasoning for these four games.  Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday.  Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  This is a perfect setup for the Steelers.  Carolina has nothing to play for in this game.  This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one. Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing.  Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival.  They will not have much left in the tank this week.  Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out.  The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title.  You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright. Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title.  The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17.  The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week.  We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay.  We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times. We love the Raiders in this West Coast game.  Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes.  Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game.  Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City.  They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.  They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once.  We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points. Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings                       NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Philadelphia 10 – 4 – 0 412 339 108.2 105.9 106.6 NY Giants 9 – 5 – 0 360 288 105.9 104.3 103.5 Dallas 5 – 9 – 0 354 396 98.7 99.2 99.8 Washington 5 – 9 – 0 268 343 93.9 96.9 95.4 Bitmap                     NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Green Bay 8 – 6 – 0 333 220 108.9 107.2 105.2 Chicago 10 – 4 – 0 293 242 103.8 104.4 104.9 Detroit 4 – 10 – 0 308 329 97.3 99.7 97.8 Minnesota 5 – 9 – 0 244 314 95.1 95.9 94.2                       NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Atlanta 12 – 2 – 0 369 261 107.7 106.1 107.2 New Orleans 10 – 4 – 0 354 270 105.9 103.8 105.2 Tampa Bay 8 – 6 – 0 280 290 98.6 98.9 100.3 Carolina 2 – 12 – 0 183 350 90.5 88.7 90.1                       NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Francisco 5 – 9 – 0 250 314 96.6 95.3 98.0 St. Louis 6 – 8 – 0 258 295 95.2 94.9 96.4 Seattle 6 – 8 – 0 279 363 93.4 93.1 95.1 Arizona 4 – 10 – 0 255 370 88.2 90.6 88.2                       AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased New England 12 – 2 – 0 446 303 112.8 110.6 110.9 NY Jets 10 – 4 – 0 295 259 102.8 103.3 103.8 Miami 7 – 7 – 0 239 261 100.2 100.0 99.7 Buffalo 4 – 10 – 0 273 353 98.3 98.0 97.7                       AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Baltimore 10 – 4 – 0 324 253 106.7 105.4 106.2 Pittsburgh 10 – 4 – 0 307 220 105.2 105.4 106.5 Cleveland 5 – 9 – 0 252 271 99.6 98.3 95.0 Cincinnati 3 – 11 – 0 281 362 95.3 95.9 94.3                       AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Indianapolis 8 – 6 – 0 381 342 101.2 102.2 101.5 Jacksonville 8 – 6 – 0 319 365 99.1 99.0 101.0 Houston 5 – 9 – 0 333 386 98.7 98.0 97.2 Tennessee 6 – 8 – 0 322 282 95.4 100.3 98.2                       AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Diego 8 – 6 – 0 388 260 106.9 106.3 105.9 Oakland 7 – 7 – 0 353 330 99.9 99.7 101.3 Kansas City 9 – 5 – 0 322 281 99.4 100.7 99.6 Denver 3 – 11 – 0 292 415 91.0 91.8 93.2 PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PITTSBURGH	Carolina	18.7	20.7	20.4	13.5	37
Dallas	ARIZONA	7.5	5.6	8.6	6.5	45
MIAMI	Detroit	4.9	2.3	3.9	3.5	41.5
PHILADELPHIA	Minnesota	16.1	13	15.4	NL	NL
JACKSONVILLE	Washington	8.2	5.1	8.6	7	45.5
ST. LOUIS	San Francisco	1.6	2.6	1.4	2.5	39.5
TAMPA BAY	Seattle	7.2	7.8	7.2	6	44
New England	BUFFALO	12.5	10.6	13.2	7.5	44
CHICAGO	New York Jets	4	4.1	4.1	2.5	36
Baltimore	CLEVELAND	4.1	4.1	8.2	3.5	38.5
KANSAS CITY	Tennessee	8	4.4	5.4	5	42
OAKLAND	Indianapolis	1.7	0.5	2.8	-3	47
Houston	DENVER	4.7	3.2	1	3	48.5
GREEN BAY	New York Giants	6	5.9	4.7	NL	NL
San Diego	CINCINNATI	8.6	7.4	8.6	7.5	44
ATLANTA	New Orleans	5.8	6.3	6	2.5	48.5

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

N F C

1. Atlanta 13-3

2. Philadelphia 12-4

3. Chicago 11-5

4. San Francisco 7-9

5. New Orleans 12-4

6. Green Bay 10-6

 

A F C

1. New England 14-2

2. Baltimore 12-4

3. San Diego 10-6

4. Jacksonville 10-6

5. New York Jets 11-5

6. Pittsburgh 11-5

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Chicago over Green Bay

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Philadelphia over Chicago

Atlanta over New Orleans

 

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

New England over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate QB Passer Rating 



Player	Team	G	AYPA	Int %	PiRate
Tom Brady	NE	14	6.8	0.89	114.2
Michael Vick	PHI	11	6.6	1.52	107.6
Matt Cassel	KC	13	5.8	1.31	105.0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	10	6	1.49	104.5
Josh Freeman	TB	14	5.7	1.42	103.4
Phillip Rivers	SD	14	7	2.37	102.3
Vince Young	TEN	9	6.2	1.92	101.8
Joe Flacco	BAL	14	5.7	1.77	100.3
Kyle Orton	DEN	13	5.6	1.81	99.5
Colt McCoy	CLE	6	5.7	1.97	98.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	14	5.2	1.76	97.6
Matt Schaub	HOU	14	5.6	2.12	96.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	13	6.1	2.44	96.7
Peyton Manning	IND	14	5.6	2.46	93.7
Kevin Kolb	PHI	6	4.9	2.61	88.4
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	14	4.6	2.55	87.3
Tony Romo	DAL	6	5.7	3.29	87.0
Jason Campbell	OAK	11	5.1	3.05	85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	12	4.9	2.97	85.3
Jon Kitna	DAL	9	5.4	3.36	84.7
Drew Brees	NO	14	5.2	3.33	83.8
Sam Bradford	STL	14	4.1	2.71	83.1
Kerry Collins	TEN	8	4.5	2.97	83.1
Donovan McNabb	WAS	13	4.8	3.18	82.9
Shaun Hill	DET	9	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jay Cutler	CHI	13	4.9	3.53	80.4
Derek Anderson	ARI	12	4.1	3.06	80.0
Chad Henne	MIA	13	4.7	3.48	79.7
Alex Smith	SF	9	4.4	3.36	79.1
Carson Palmer	CIN	14	4.4	3.46	78.2
Jimmie Clausen	CAR	11	3.1	2.88	76.0
Eli Manning	NYG	14	5	4.19	75.1
David Garrard	JAX	13	4.6	3.96	74.9
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	13	4.3	3.86	74.1
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	6	4	4.43	67.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	5	3.3	4.70	61.1
Brett Favre	MIN	13	4	5.31	59.7
Matt Moore	CAR	6	2	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
						AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
						AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
NY Giants	9	–	4	–	0	329	250	107.1	105.4	105.6
Philadelphia	9	–	4	–	0	374	308	107.0	105.4	105.6
Dallas	4	–	9	–	0	321	366	99.0	99.8	99.9
Washington	5	–	8	–	0	238	310	93.6	95.8	92.6
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	8	–	5	–	0	306	189	108.6	106.7	105.0
Chicago	9	–	4	–	0	253	228	101.6	101.7	103.2
Minnesota	5	–	8	–	0	230	274	97.3	98.4	97.5
Detroit	3	–	10	–	0	285	309	96.5	98.1	94.8
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Atlanta	11	–	2	–	0	335	243	106.9	106.1	107.5
New Orleans	10	–	3	–	0	330	240	106.3	105.0	106.6
Tampa Bay	8	–	5	–	0	260	267	99.4	99.9	101.2
Carolina	1	–	12	–	0	164	338	90.3	88.9	89.4
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco	5	–	8	–	0	243	280	98.2	97.1	99.8
St. Louis	6	–	7	–	0	245	268	96.5	95.7	98.0
Seattle	6	–	7	–	0	261	329	94.2	93.7	96.5
Arizona	4	–	9	–	0	243	351	88.4	91.3	92.5
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	11	–	2	–	0	415	276	113.1	111.8	111.1
NY Jets	9	–	4	–	0	273	242	101.6	101.1	102.5
Miami	7	–	6	–	0	225	244	101.2	101.4	101.9
Buffalo	3	–	10	–	0	256	339	97.3	97.1	96.0
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Pittsburgh	10	–	3	–	0	290	198	106.4	106.2	107.4
Baltimore	9	–	4	–	0	294	229	106.3	104.8	105.4
Cleveland	5	–	8	–	0	235	252	99.9	99.1	96.9
Cincinnati	2	–	11	–	0	262	345	95.0	95.1	93.9
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	7	–	6	–	0	347	318	100.7	101.3	101.7
Houston	5	–	8	–	0	316	355	100.2	100.0	99.0
Jacksonville	8	–	5	–	0	295	331	99.6	99.8	101.8
Tennessee	5	–	8	–	0	291	265	93.9	97.8	93.7
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	7	–	6	–	0	354	253	105.3	105.9	104.2
Oakland	6	–	7	–	0	314	307	99.2	99.1	99.8
Kansas City	8	–	5	–	0	295	268	98.1	98.6	99.5
Denver	3	–	10	–	0	269	376	91.7	92.3	89.7

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog				PiRate		Mean		Bias	Vegas		Totals
SAN DIEGO	San Francisco				11.1		12.8		8.4	8 1/2		44 1/2
ST. LOUIS	Kansas City				1.4		0.1		2.5	NL		NL
Houston	TENNESSEE				3.3		-0.8		2.3	-1 1/2		47
INDIANAPOLIS	Jacksonville				4.1		4.5		2.9	5		48 1/2
CAROLINA	Arizona				4.9		0.6		-0.1	2 1/2		37 1/2
Cleveland	CINCINNATI				1.9		1.0		3.0	-2		40
MIAMI	Buffalo				5.9		6.3		7.9	5 1/2		41
NEW YORK GIANTS	Philadelphia				3.1		3.0		3.0	2 1/2		46
DALLAS	Washington				8.4		7.0		10.3	6		45
TAMPA BAY	Detroit				4.9		3.8		8.4	6		43
BALTIMORE	New Orleans				3.0		2.8		1.8	2		43 1/2
Atlanta	SEATTLE				8.7		8.4		7.0	6		45
PITTSBURGH	New York Jets				8.8		9.1		8.9	6		35 1/2
OAKLAND	Denver				10.5		9.8		13.1	6 1/2		44
NEW ENGLAND	Green Bay				7.5		8.1		9.1	NL		NL
Chicago	MINNESOTA				1.3		0.3		2.7	NL		NL
PiRate Passer #  Player		Team	G	AYPA		Int%		PiRate #
Tom Brady		NE	13	6.9		0.94		114.4
Michael Vick		PHI	10	6.8		1.36		110.1
Matt Cassel		KC	12	5.9		1.13		107.1
Ben Roethlisberger		PIT	9	6.2		1.72		103.6
Josh Freeman		TB	13	5.6		1.54		101.8
Vince Young		TEN	9	6.2		1.92		101.8
Phillip Rivers		SD	13	6.8		2.51		100.0
Joe Flacco		BAL	13	5.7		1.86		99.6
Kyle Orton		DEN	13	5.6		1.81		99.5
Matt Ryan		ATL	13	5.3		1.68		98.9
Matt Schaub		HOU	13	5.8		2.15		97.6
Aaron Rodgers		GB	13	6.1		2.44		96.7
Troy Smith		SF	5	5.6		2.38		94.4
Colt McCoy		CLE	5	5.4		2.36		93.5
Peyton Manning		IND	13	5.6		2.63		92.2
Jason Campbell		OAK	10	5		2.54		89.6
Kevin Kolb		PHI	6	4.9		2.61		88.4
Tony Romo		DAL	6	5.7		3.29		87.0
Mark Sanchez		NYJ	13	4.6		2.72		85.8
Sam Bradford		STL	13	4.3		2.53		85.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick		BUF	11	4.8		2.91		85.3
Drew Brees		NO	13	5.3		3.43		83.5
Kerry Collins		TEN	7	4.3		2.81		83.4
Donovan McNabb		WAS	13	4.8		3.18		82.9
Shaun Hill		DET	9	4.4		3.13		81.1
Jay Cutler		CHI	12	4.9		3.49		80.7
Alex Smith		SF	8	4.6		3.35		80.3
Derek Anderson		ARI	12	4.1		3.06		80.0
Jon Kitna		DAL	8	5.1		3.83		78.8
Matt Hasselbeck		SEA	12	4.6		3.55		78.6
Chad Henne		MIA	12	4.7		3.63		78.4
Carson Palmer		CIN	13	4.2		3.62		75.6
Eli Manning		NYG	13	4.9		4.34		73.3
David Garrard		JAX	12	4.4		4.14		72.2
Jimmie Clausen		CAR	10	2.8		3.13		72.2
Bruce Gradkowski		OAK	6	4		4.43		67.4
Brett Favre		MIN	12	4.1		5.13		61.8
Jake Delhomme		CLE	5	3.3		4.70		61.1
Matt Moore		CAR	6	2		6.99		33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New Orleans

2. Philadelphia

3. Chicago

4. Seattle

5. Atlanta

6. New York Giants

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Jacksonville

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. New York Jets

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago over New York Giants

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Jacksonville over New York Jets

San Diego over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

New Orleans over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Chicago

 

New England over San Diego

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

New Orleans over New England

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 13–December 2-6, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	7	–	4	–	0	310	257	106.6	105.7	105.8	2
NY Giants	7	–	4	–	0	277	240	103.3	102.5	103.3	2
Dallas	3	–	8	–	0	256	301	96.8	98.9	99.5	2
Washington	5	–	6	–	0	215	262	96.3	97.1	96.1	3
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Green Bay	7	–	4	–	0	269	166	109.9	109.9	106.8	3
Chicago	8	–	3	–	0	222	172	103.3	103.4	104.7	4
Minnesota	4	–	7	–	0	189	239	97.1	99.0	99.6	3
Detroit	2	–	9	–	0	258	282	95.0	96.7	93.9	4
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Atlanta	9	–	2	–	0	276	209	106.3	105.3	106.9	4
New Orleans	8	–	3	–	0	265	197	105.8	104.5	106.6	2
Tampa Bay	7	–	4	–	0	219	223	99.1	99.0	100.6	2
Carolina	1	–	10	–	0	140	276	92.7	90.0	90.3	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Francisco	4	–	7	–	0	187	225	97.2	95.4	98.3	4
St. Louis	5	–	6	–	0	213	231	95.2	94.5	97.1	4
Seattle	5	–	6	–	0	209	275	93.9	92.5	95.3	3
Arizona	3	–	8	–	0	194	319	88.0	88.3	89.7	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New England	9	–	2	–	0	334	266	107.8	107.0	107.5	3
NY Jets	9	–	2	–	0	264	187	106.3	105.5	106.3	2
Miami	6	–	5	–	0	205	225	102.3	101.3	102.3	3
Buffalo	2	–	9	–	0	229	295	97.7	97.1	97.0	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Baltimore	8	–	3	–	0	250	188	107.4	105.9	106.1	4
Pittsburgh	8	–	3	–	0	254	181	105.0	105.7	104.9	2
Cleveland	4	–	7	–	0	216	229	98.6	99.5	98.2	4
Cincinnati	2	–	9	–	0	225	288	95.0	95.5	91.3	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Indianapolis	6	–	5	–	0	282	252	102.9	102.9	102.2	4
Houston	5	–	6	–	0	264	287	100.6	100.3	99.4	2
Tennessee	5	–	6	–	0	257	218	96.7	102.1	96.5	4
Jacksonville	6	–	5	–	0	240	294	96.6	96.5	98.4	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Diego	6	–	5	–	0	310	225	106.9	106.2	104.2	4
Kansas City	7	–	4	–	0	285	231	100.2	100.2	101.1	4
Oakland	5	–	6	–	0	255	256	96.3	96.4	97.7	2
Denver	3	–	8	–	0	250	323	93.6	95.2	92.2	2

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 13: December 2-6, 2010
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PHILADELPHIA	Houston	8.0	7.4	8.4	8 1/2	51 1/2
MINNESOTA	Buffalo	2.4	4.9	5.6	6	44 1/2
MIAMI	Cleveland	6.7	4.8	7.1	4 1/2	42 1/2
TENNESSEE	Jacksonville	4.1	9.6	2.1	NL	NL
KANSAS CITY	Denver	10.6	9.0	12.9	8 1/2	45 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS	Washington	9.0	7.4	9.2	7	43
Chicago	DETROIT	4.3	2.7	6.8	3 1/2	44 1/2
GREEN BAY	San Francisco	15.7	17.5	11.5	9 1/2	42
New Orleans	CINCINNATI	7.8	6.0	12.3	6 1/2	46 1/2
Atlanta	TAMPA BAY	5.2	4.3	4.3	3	44 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Oakland	14.6	13.8	10.5	12 1/2	45 1/2
SEATTLE	Carolina	4.2	5.5	8.0	6	39 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	Dallas	10.1	8.0	6.7	5 1/2	47 1/2
St. Louis	ARIZONA	3.2	2.2	3.4	3	43
BALTIMORE	Pittsburgh	6.4	4.2	5.2	3	40
NEW ENGLAND	New York Jets	4.5	4.5	4.2	3 1/2	46

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int %	#
Michael Vick	Phi	6.8	0.43	118.3
Tom Brady	NE	6.5	1.12	110.5
Kyle Orton	Den	6.3	1.40	107.0
Matt Cassel	KC	6.0	1.24	106.7
Matt Ryan	Atl	5.6	1.23	104.5
Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	6.4	1.82	103.8
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.39	102.1
Josh Freeman	TB	5.6	1.53	101.9
Vince Young	Ten	6.2	1.92	101.8
Matt Shaub	Hou	5.8	1.91	99.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	6.2	2.44	97.3
Seneca Wallace	Cle	5.4	2.00	96.6
Joe Flacco	Bal	5.7	2.19	96.6
Peyton Manning	Ind	5.6	2.26	95.5
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.2	2.20	93.8
Colt McCoy	Cle	5.4	2.36	93.5
Sam Bradford	Stl	4.5	2.18	90.0
Matt Hasselebeck	Sea	4.9	2.56	88.9
Kevin Kolb	Phi	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	Dal	5.7	3.29	87.0
Drew Brees	NO	5.4	3.29	85.3
Chad Henne	Mia	5.3	3.27	84.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	Buf	4.8	3.03	84.2
Kerry Collins	Ten	4.2	2.80	82.8
Jay Cutler	Chi	5.0	3.42	81.9
Donovan McNabb	Was	4.8	3.31	81.8
Derek Anderson	Ari	4.2	2.93	81.7
Shaun Hill	Det	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jason Campbell	Oak	4.2	3.16	79.7
Jon Kitna	Dal	5.2	4.00	77.9
Carson Palmer	Cin	4.3	3.47	77.5
Eli Manning	NYG	5.2	4.26	75.7
Jimmy Clausen	Car	3.1	3.01	74.9
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
David Garrard	Jax	4.3	4.42	69.2
Bruce Gradkowski	Oak	4.0	4.43	67.4
Brett Favre	Min	4.2	4.86	64.8
Matt Moore	Car	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  This statistic removed the receivers’ Yards After Catch.

AYPA can be found at www.advancednflstats.com

Projected NFL Playoff Seedings

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. Chicago Bears

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. St. Louis Rams

5. Green Bay Packers

6. New Orleans Saints

AFC

1. New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. San Diego Chargers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore Ravens

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Green Bay over St. Louis

Baltimore over San Diego

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Divisional Round

Atlanta over New Orleans

Chicago over Green Bay

Baltimore over New England

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

Conference Championships

Chicago over Atlanta

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL

Chicago over Baltimore

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 12–November 25-29, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed by PiRate #)
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	7	–	3	–	0	284	226	106.9	106.2	106.0	2
NY Giants	6	–	4	–	0	253	220	104.1	102.5	103.5	2
Washington	5	–	5	–	0	202	245	97.3	98.8	99.0	3
Dallas	3	–	7	–	0	229	271	96.3	98.8	99.4	2
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	7	–	3	–	0	252	146	110.4	108.5	107.7	3
Chicago	7	–	3	–	0	191	146	103.0	102.8	102.7	4
Detroit	2	–	8	–	0	234	237	96.7	97.1	95.5	4
Minnesota	3	–	7	–	0	172	226	96.1	97.3	94.8	3
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans	7	–	3	–	0	235	170	106.3	103.8	105.4	2
Atlanta	8	–	2	–	0	256	192	105.8	105.0	106.7	4
Tampa Bay	7	–	3	–	0	209	206	98.3	99.6	101.1	2
Carolina	1	–	9	–	0	117	252	91.5	89.0	90.4	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Seattle	5	–	5	–	0	185	233	95.4	94.9	96.0	3
St. Louis	4	–	6	–	0	177	198	94.5	94.6	95.8	4
San Francisco	3	–	7	–	0	160	219	94.2	93.9	95.6	4
Arizona	3	–	7	–	0	188	292	91.0	91.3	91.4	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	8	–	2	–	0	289	242	106.1	105.6	106.9	3
NY Jets	8	–	2	–	0	238	177	106.0	105.0	106.1	2
Miami	5	–	5	–	0	172	208	100.7	100.5	100.0	3
Buffalo	2	–	8	–	0	213	276	97.2	97.0	96.2	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Baltimore	7	–	3	–	0	233	178	108.2	105.1	106.0	4
Pittsburgh	7	–	3	–	0	235	165	105.5	106.2	105.7	2
Cleveland	3	–	7	–	0	192	206	99.8	99.9	97.3	4
Cincinnati	2	–	8	–	0	215	262	95.3	95.8	93.2	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	6	–	4	–	0	268	216	105.6	104.5	104.8	4
Tennessee	5	–	5	–	0	257	198	98.9	103.4	100.2	4
Houston	4	–	6	–	0	244	287	98.4	98.4	97.9	2
Jacksonville	6	–	4	–	0	220	270	95.8	97.6	100.8	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	5	–	5	–	0	274	211	104.2	103.5	103.7	4
Kansas City	6	–	4	–	0	243	207	98.7	99.8	100.6	4
Oakland	5	–	5	–	0	238	223	97.9	98.1	98.9	2
Denver	3	–	7	–	0	217	287	94.3	95.4	91.1	2

Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 12: November 25-29, 2010
Vegas Line as of 11:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
New England	DETROIT	5.4	4.5	7.4	6 1/2	51
New Orleans	DALLAS	8.0	3.0	4.0	3 1/2	50
NEW YORK JETS	Cincinnati	12.7	11.2	14.9	9	43
WASHINGTON	Minnesota	4.2	4.5	7.2	1 1/2	43
Pittsburgh	BUFFALO	6.3	7.2	7.5	6 1/2	43
HOUSTON	Tennessee	1.5	-3.0	-0.3	NL	NL
NEW YORK GIANTS	Jacksonville	10.3	6.9	4.7	7	44 1/2
CLEVELAND	Carolina	12.3	14.9	10.9	11	37 1/2
BALTIMORE	Tampa Bay	13.9	9.5	8.9	7 1/2	41
CHICAGO	Philadelphia	0.1	0.6	0.7	-3	42 1/2
Green Bay	ATLANTA	0.6	-0.5	-3.0	-2	47 1/2
Miami	OAKLAND	0.8	0.4	-0.9	NL	NL
Kansas City	SEATTLE	0.3	1.9	1.6	1 1/2	44 1/2
DENVER	Bitmap St. Louis	1.8	2.8	-2.7	4	44 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	San Diego	5.4	5.0	5.1	3	52
ARIZONA	San Francisco	0.8	1.4	-0.2	Pk	40

 

Projected NFL Playoffs

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. Philadelphia

4. Seattle

5. New Orleans

6. Chicago

AFC

1. Baltimore

2. New York Jets

3. Indianapolis

4. San Diego

5. New England

6. Pittsburgh

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	7.2	0.00	124.3
Tom Brady	NE	6.1	1.22	107.5
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.2	1.55	105.1
Matt Cassel	KC	5.9	1.37	104.9
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.6	1.33	103.7
Peyton Manning	IND	5.9	1.59	103.0
Vince Young	TEN	6.2	1.92	101.8
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	6.5	2.14	101.6
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.55	100.8
Josh Freeman	TB	5.7	1.72	100.7
Matt Schaub	HOU	6.0	2.11	99.0
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.7	2.12	97.3
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.3	2.08	95.3
Colt McCoy	CLE	5.4	2.36	93.5
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.8	2.69	92.8
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	4.9	2.23	91.8
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Sam Bradford	STL	4.1	2.39	85.9
Drew Brees	NO	5.2	3.36	83.6
Chad Henne	MIA	5.0	3.27	83.2
Shaun Hill	DET	4.5	2.95	83.2
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.8	3.16	83.1
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.2	2.80	82.8
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.9	3.35	81.9
Derek Anderson	ARI	4.2	2.94	81.6
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.7	3.30	81.3
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.2	3.16	79.7
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.7	3.69	77.8
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.8	2.90	74.2
Jon Kitna	DAL	5.0	4.43	73.0
Eli Manning	NYG	4.9	4.55	71.4
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	3.8	3.97	70.4
David Garrard	JAX	4.7	4.67	69.2
Brett Favre	MIN	4.0	5.20	60.7
Matt Moore	CAR	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
					AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 11–November 18-22, 2010

Hottest Team In The League?

Quick question.  Three NFL teams have not lost a game since week six.  One of those three has outscored its opponents by 26 points per game in that time.  One has given up just one touchdown in their last two games.  The other has averaged over 30 points per game in their three-game winning streak.  Can you name these three teams?

It is no surprise that Green Bay has fared strongly in their current three-game winning streak.  The Packers were supposed to win their division and were supposed to be a top contender for the NFC representative in the Super Bowl  thanks to a powerful offense.  But, the Packers have done it with defense as of late, holding the Jets scoreless and giving up just seven to Dallas.

Atlanta has been a contender in the NFC South ever since Matt Ryan arrived.  The Falcons have scored 92 points in their three-game winning streak.

Ah, but who is this most dominating team of the trio–the one outscoring opponents by 38-12?  It’s the Oakland Raiders who all of a sudden find themselved in first place in the AFC West.  The Raiders visit Pittsburgh, and if they can beat the Steelers, they are officially back.

The Great Switch

Four games into this season, it appeared that offense was on the decline and half the league might give up less than 17 points per game.  As of late, offense has ruled.  Now half of the league could top 350 points.  This is just another part of this fascinating season in which no team appears to be dominant.  Look for 20 teams to challenge for the 12 playoff spots.  It would not surprise us to see three or more spots up for grabs in week 17.

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed alphabetically by division)
Bitmap NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	6	–	3	–	0	257	209	106.2	104.8	105.0	2
NY Giants	6	–	3	–	0	236	193	104.8	102.8	104.3	2
Washington	4	–	5	–	0	183	229	95.6	97.2	93.5	3
Dallas	2	–	7	–	0	194	252	93.6	97.5	98.0	2
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Green Bay	6	–	3	–	0	221	143	108.1	106.5	104.5	3
Chicago	6	–	3	–	0	175	146	99.4	99.6	100.8	4
Detroit	2	–	7	–	0	215	202	98.9	99.4	97.0	4
Minnesota	3	–	6	–	0	169	195	98.4	100.0	97.6	3
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New Orleans	6	–	3	–	0	201	151	105.8	103.1	103.9	2
Atlanta	7	–	2	–	0	222	175	104.0	103.6	104.9	4
Tampa Bay	6	–	3	–	0	188	206	96.0	96.9	98.9	2
Carolina	1	–	8	–	0	104	215	92.9	90.9	90.5	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Francisco	3	–	6	–	0	160	198	96.5	96.4	98.3	4
St. Louis	4	–	5	–	0	160	164	96.3	96.3	97.1	4
Seattle	5	–	4	–	0	166	199	95.9	95.8	98.1	3
Arizona	3	–	6	–	0	175	261	91.8	93.5	92.6	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
NY Jets	7	–	2	–	0	208	150	107.1	106.0	106.6	2
New England	7	–	2	–	0	258	214	106.3	105.0	106.8	3
Miami	5	–	4	–	0	172	192	102.8	102.2	102.0	3
Buffalo	1	–	8	–	0	164	245	95.0	94.7	92.9	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Baltimore	6	–	3	–	0	196	165	106.8	104.8	105.1	4
Pittsburgh	6	–	3	–	0	200	162	103.2	104.1	104.2	2
Cleveland	3	–	6	–	0	172	182	101.6	100.3	100.7	4
Cincinnati	2	–	7	–	0	184	213	98.0	98.8	96.7	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Indianapolis	6	–	3	–	0	240	185	105.4	104.1	104.7	4
Tennessee	5	–	4	–	0	241	179	102.1	104.2	101.6	4
Houston	4	–	5	–	0	217	257	97.3	97.0	97.4	2
Jacksonville	5	–	4	–	0	196	250	94.0	95.9	98.3	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Diego	4	–	5	–	0	239	197	102.6	102.2	101.9	4
Oakland	5	–	4	–	0	235	188	100.2	100.6	101.7	2
Kansas City	5	–	4	–	0	212	194	97.9	98.7	99.1	4
Denver	3	–	6	–	0	203	252	95.9	97.3	94.8	2

 

Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 10: November 18-22, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
MIAMI	Chicago	6.4	5.6	4.2	1 1/2	40
PITTSBURGH	Oakland	5.0	5.5	4.5	7 1/2	41
NEW YORK JETS	Houston	11.8	11.0	11.2	6 1/2	45 1/2
Baltimore	CAROLINA	11.9	11.9	12.6	10	37 1/2
TENNESSEE	Washington	10.5	11.0	12.1	7	44
Detroit	DALLAS	3.3	-0.1	-3.0	-6 1/2	47
Green Bay	MINNESOTA	6.7	3.3	3.9	3	44
CINCINNATI	Buffalo	6.0	7.1	6.8	5 1/2	44
Cleveland	JACKSONVILLE	4.6	1.4	-0.6	1 1/2	43
KANSAS CITY	Arizona	10.1	9.2	10.5	7 1/2	44
NEW ORLEANS	Seattle	11.9	9.3	7.8	11 1/2	44
Atlanta	ST. LOUIS	4.7	3.3	3.8	3	43
SAN FRANCISCO	Tampa Bay	4.5	3.5	3.4	3	41 1/2
NEW ENGLAND	Indianapolis	3.9	2.6	5.1	3	50 1/2
PHILADELPHIA	New York Giants	3.4	4.0	2.7	3	48 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Denver	10.7	8.9	11.1	10	50

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	7.5	0.00	126.0
Peyton Manning	IND	6.1	1.03	109.1
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.6	1.43	108.4
Tom Brady	NE	6	1.32	106.0
Matt Cassel	KC	5.7	1.50	102.7
Phillip Rivers	SD	7	2.43	101.8
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.5	1.48	101.8
Josh Freeman	TB	5.7	1.85	99.6
Vince Young	TEN	5.8	2.14	97.6
Colt McCoy	CLE	5.6	2.02	97.6
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	6.1	2.53	95.9
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.8	2.34	95.9
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.2	2.01	95.4
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.5	2.36	94.1
Aaron Rodger	GB	5.6	2.97	89.2
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Sam Bradford	STL	4.1	2.40	85.9
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.8	2.92	85.1
Drew Brees	NO	5.1	3.21	84.3
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.7	3.06	83.4
Chad Henne	MIA	5	3.27	83.2
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.2	2.80	82.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.6	3.08	82.6
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.8	3.57	79.5
Shaun Hill	DET	4.4	3.37	79.0
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.8	3.66	78.7
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.7	2.97	78.6
Eli Manning	NYG	5.4	4.08	78.4
David Garrard	JAX	5.1	3.89	78.3
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.8	2.90	74.2
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.3	3.92	73.6
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.7	3.87	70.7
Jon Kitna	DAL	5	5.22	66.0
Brett Favre	MIN	4	5.54	57.6
Matt Moore	CAR	2	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 10–November 11-15, 2010

Current NFL Standings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
NY Giants	6	–	2	–	0	216	160	108.0	105.0	108.7	2
Philadelphia	5	–	3	–	0	198	181	103.6	102.9	105.0	2
Washington	4	–	4	–	0	155	170	98.2	99.2	99.6	4
Dallas	1	–	7	–	0	161	232	90.4	94.8	90.0	3
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	6	–	3	–	0	221	143	108.1	106.5	106.7	3
Minnesota	3	–	5	–	0	156	168	99.6	100.2	96.5	3
Detroit	2	–	6	–	0	203	188	99.0	99.8	101.1	4
Chicago	5	–	3	–	0	148	133	98.2	99.3	101.4	2
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans	6	–	3	–	0	201	151	105.8	103.0	106.1	2
Atlanta	6	–	2	–	0	196	154	103.2	102.9	106.1	3
Tampa Bay	5	–	3	–	0	157	190	94.7	96.7	100.8	2
Carolina	1	–	7	–	0	88	184	94.2	90.9	91.2	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco	2	–	6	–	0	137	178	97.1	95.6	97.5	4
St. Louis	4	–	4	–	0	140	141	95.7	96.9	99.3	3
Arizona	3	–	5	–	0	157	225	94.3	94.6	92.5	4
Seattle	4	–	4	–	0	130	181	93.4	94.1	94.6	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
NY Jets	6	–	2	–	0	182	130	107.3	105.4	106.9	4
New England	6	–	2	–	0	219	188	104.7	104.0	104.3	2
Miami	4	–	4	–	0	143	175	101.7	100.3	101.1	2
Buffalo	0	–	8	–	0	150	233	94.9	93.4	93.6	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Baltimore	6	–	2	–	0	175	139	107.6	104.8	105.6	2
Pittsburgh	6	–	2	–	0	174	123	104.8	106.4	105.4	2
Cleveland	3	–	5	–	0	152	156	101.4	100.2	101.1	2
Cincinnati	2	–	6	–	0	167	190	97.5	97.9	93.2	4
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	5	–	3	–	0	187	151	105.9	105.4	104.2	4
Tennessee	5	–	3	–	0	224	150	103.2	106.6	103.3	2
Houston	4	–	4	–	0	176	196	97.5	98.4	97.5	2
Jacksonville	4	–	4	–	0	165	226	93.8	95.2	95.5	4
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	4	–	5	–	0	239	197	102.6	102.8	100.0	4
Kansas City	5	–	3	–	0	183	145	100.3	101.4	100.5	2
Oakland	5	–	4	–	0	235	188	100.2	100.6	100.3	2
Denver	2	–	6	–	0	154	223	93.5	94.7	90.6	2

 

THIS WEEK’S PIRATE, MEAN, AND BIAS SPREADS

 

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Baltimore	ATLANTA	1.4	-1.1	-3.5	-1 1/2	43
INDIANAPOLIS	Cincinnati	12.4	11.5	15.0	8	47 1/2
JACKSONVILLE	Houston	0.3	0.8	2.0	2	50
MIAMI	Tennessee	0.5	-4.3	-0.1	-1	42 1/2
CHICAGO	Minnesota	0.6	1.1	6.9	-1	40 1/2
Detroit	BUFFALO	2.1	4.4	5.5	-3	42 1/2
New York Jets	CLEVELAND	3.9	3.2	3.8	3	37
TAMPA BAY	Carolina	2.5	7.8	11.6	7	35 1/2
Kansas City	DENVER	4.8	4.7	7.9	1	42
SAN FRANCISCO	St. Louis	5.4	2.7	2.2	6	38 1/2
ARIZONA	Seattle	4.9	4.5	1.9	3	41
NEW YORK GIANTS	Dallas	19.6	12.2	20.7	14	45
PITTSBURGH	New England	2.1	4.4	3.1	4 1/2	45
Philadelphia	WASHINGTON	1.4	-0.3	1.4	3	42

 

PIRATE QUARTERBACK PASSER FORMULA

 

Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Peyton Manning	IND	6.2	1.14	108.7
Vince Young	TEN	6.5	1.64	106.0
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.4	1.58	105.9
Tom Brady	NE	5.7	1.53	102.4
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.43	101.8
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.5	1.74	99.5
Matt Cassel	KC	5.2	1.87	96.7
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Mark San chez	NYJ	5.2	1.97	95.8
Josh Freeman	TB	5.3	2.03	95.8
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	6.4	2.75	95.6
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.6	2.28	95.3
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.4	2.62	91.2
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.9	2.52	89.3
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.6	2.97	89.2
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.9	2.89	86.0
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.8	2.92	85.1
Drew Brees	NO	5.1	3.21	84.3
Chad Henne	MIA	4.9	3.24	83.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.6	3.08	82.6
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.9	3.32	82.2
Sam Bradford	STL	3.9	2.74	81.7
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.6	3.45	79.4
Shaun Hill	DET	4.4	3.37	79.0
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.7	2.97	78.6
Eli Manning	NYG	5.3	4.06	78.0
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.3	3.92	73.6
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.7	3.87	70.7
David Garrard	JAX	4.2	4.70	66.2
Brett Favre	MIN	4.3	5.04	63.7
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.0	3.67	62.9
Jon Kitna	DAL	3.6	5.36	57.0
Trent Edwards	JAX	1.4	5.26	45.5
Matt Moore	CAR	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: [((7* Air Yards Per Attempt [eliminates YAC]) – (11* Int.%)) +105] * 0.8
AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

 

Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New York Giants              12-4

2. Atlanta Falcons                 12-4

3. Green Bay Packers           10-6

4. Seattle Seahawks                 8-8

5. New Orleans Saints           11-5

6. Philadelphia Eagles           11-5

 

A F C

1. Pittsburgh Steelers            13-3

2. New York Jets                   12-4

3. Indianapolis Colts             10-6

4. Kansas City Chiefs            10-6

5. Baltimore Ravens              12-4

6. New England Patriots       11-5