PiRate Ratings For NFL Wildcard Round

PiRate Ratings Spreads For Wildcard Round

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Indianapolis	8.5	9.4	9.8
Seattle	LA Rams	3.0	3.3	3.1
Washington	Tampa Bay	-9.0	-9.1	-9.9
Tennessee	Baltimore	-6.4	-6.3	-6.4
New Orleans	Chicago	8.6	8.9	8.9
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	4.5	4.6	4.4

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Buffalo	Indianapolis	49.5
Seattle	LA Rams	49.5
Washington	Tampa Bay	51.5
Tennessee	Baltimore	55
New Orleans	Chicago	46.5
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	44.5

NFL Playoff Schedule–Wildcard Round

Day	Date	Time (ET)	Network	Home	Visitor
Sat	Jan 9	1:05 PM	CBS	Buffalo	Indianapolis
Sat	Jan 9	4:40 PM	FOX	Seattle	LA Rams
Sat	Jan 9	8:15 PM	NBC	Washington	Tampa Bay
Sun	Jan 10	1:05 PM	ESPN	Tennessee	Baltimore
Sun	Jan 10	4:40 PM	CBS	New Orleans	Chicago
Sun	Jan 10	8:15 PM	NBC	Pittsburgh	Cleveland

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 15: December 12-16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baltimore	N. Y. Jets	19.3	18.9	20.6
Detroit	Tampa Bay	1.2	-1.8	-2.0
Washington	Philadelphia	-6.6	-4.1	-4.0
Green Bay	Chicago	1.0	3.5	3.6
Cincinnati	New England	-12.2	-12.8	-11.9
Tennessee	Houston	4.0	4.3	4.7
Carolina	Seattle	-5.0	-5.0	-5.0
Kansas City	Denver	7.8	8.0	8.0
N. Y. Giants	Miami	5.7	5.5	5.8
Buffalo	Pittsburgh	5.3	5.7	5.2
Oakland	Jacksonville	4.1	4.0	4.3
Arizona	Cleveland	-3.9	-4.1	-3.6
San Francisco	Atlanta	13.7	14.5	15.3
Dallas	LA Rams	-1.5	-0.2	-1.2
LA Chargers	Minnesota	0.1	1.3	0.4
New Orleans	Indianapolis	11.2	8.3	9.2

 

Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
Baltimore	N. Y. Jets	45.5
Detroit	Tampa Bay	53.5
Washington	Philadelphia	42
Green Bay	Chicago	42.5
Cincinnati	New England	42
Tennessee	Houston	44.5
Carolina	Seattle	50
Kansas City	Denver	50
N. Y. Giants	Miami	52
Buffalo	Pittsburgh	37.5
Oakland	Jacksonville	43.5
Arizona	Cleveland	47
San Francisco	Atlanta	51.5
Dallas	LA Rams	47
LA Chargers	Minnesota	44
New Orleans	Indianapolis	50

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	107.8	108.4	107.8	108.0	19.5	10-3
Buffalo	101.8	102.8	102.8	102.5	17.5	9-4
N. Y. Jets	94.5	95.1	94.1	94.6	21	5-8
Miami	89.7	90.0	89.9	89.9	27.5	3-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Baltimore	111.3	111.4	112.2	111.7	24.5	11-2
Pittsburgh	99.5	100.1	100.6	100.0	20	8-5
Cleveland	99.2	99.5	99.5	99.4	23	6-7
Cincinnati	93.2	93.1	93.4	93.2	22.5	1-12
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Tennessee	102.5	103.0	103.1	102.9	20.5	8-5
Houston	101.5	101.7	101.4	101.6	24	8-5
Indianapolis	99.1	100.1	99.6	99.6	23.5	6-7
Jacksonville	90.7	90.7	90.5	90.6	18	4-9
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Kansas City	104.4	105.1	104.9	104.8	30.5	9-4
LA Chargers	104.1	104.0	103.4	103.8	22	5-8
Denver	99.7	100.1	99.9	99.9	19.5	5-8
Oakland	91.8	91.7	91.8	91.8	25.5	6-7
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Dallas	102.6	102.9	102.4	102.6	22	6-7
Philadelphia	101.0	99.4	99.0	99.8	24	6-7
N.Y. Giants	92.9	93.0	93.2	93.0	24.5	2-11
Washington	91.9	92.8	92.5	92.4	18	3-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	106.5	105.2	105.4	105.7	22	9-4
Green Bay	101.7	101.8	102.0	101.8	24.5	10-3
Chicago	103.2	100.8	100.9	101.6	18	7-6
Detroit	97.3	95.8	95.9	96.4	23.5	3-9-1
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.3	105.4	105.8	106.2	26.5	10-3
Tampa Bay	99.1	100.6	101.0	100.2	30	6-7
Atlanta	98.6	98.7	98.4	98.5	26	4-9
Carolina	95.2	95.0	95.2	95.1	26	5-8
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
San Francisco	109.3	110.2	110.7	110.1	25.5	11-2
LA Rams	106.6	105.6	106.1	106.1	25	8-5
Seattle	103.2	103.0	103.2	103.1	24	10-3
Arizona	92.8	92.9	93.4	93.0	24	3-9-1

 

The NFL Playoff Scenarios

There are numerous Playoff scenarios that can still greatly affect the remaining teams in the Playoff hunt.  After the end of Week 15, the scenarios will be easier to describe, and of course after Week 16, it will be cut and dry.  For now, here are the basics–just who wins in each scenario without going into explanations about which tiebreaker causes it.

 

Division Championships

 

AFC

If Buffalo wins at New England, and the teams finish tied for first, New England is AFC East Champs.

If Pittsburgh wins out and Baltimore loses out to finish tied at 11-5, Pittsburgh wins the AFC North Division.

If Houston and Tennessee finished tied at 10-6 or 9-7, Houston wins the AFC South Division.

Should Houston and Tennessee both finish 9-7, and Indianapolis wins their remaining three games to finish 9-7, Indianapolis would win the AFC South in a three-way tie.  Houston and Tennessee must split their two games and then lose the other game to both finish 9-7.

Kansas City has already clinched the AFC West Division.

 

NFC

If Dallas and Philadelphia finished tied at 8-8 or 7-9, Dallas wins the NFC East.

If Green Bay and Minnesota finish tied at 12-4 with Minnesota winning versus the Packers in Week 16, Green Bay wins the NFC North Division. If they both finish tied at 11-5, with Green Bay losing to either Chicago or Detroit plus Minnesota, then Minnesota wins the division.

If Chicago, Minnesota, and Green Bay finish in a three-way tie at 10-6, then Chicago wins the NFC North.

New Orleans has already clinched the NFC South.

If Seattle beats San Francisco in Week 17, and the two teams finish in a tie for first at 12-4, Seattle wins the NFC West Division. Seattle also wins a three-way tie with the 49ers and LA Rams for first at 11-5.

There is no scenario where the LA Rams can win the division, because if they win out to finish 11-5, then if San Francisco loses out to finish 11-5, that means Seattle will have had to win their Week 17 game with San Francisco to make then also 11-5, where they hold the tiebreaker.

Wildcards

 

AFC

The Wildcard tiebreaker would come into play with three non-division winners ending with 10-6 or 9-7 records.

At 10-6, Pittsburgh and Buffalo would earn the Wildcards, while Tennessee would be eliminated at 10-6. If the three teams were 9-7, then Pittsburgh and Tennessee would earn the Wildcards, while Buffalo would be eliminated.

If New England were to lose out finishing tied at 10-6 with Tennessee and Pittsburgh,  while Buffalo wins the AFC East, then The Patriots miss the Playoffs while the Titans and Steelers are the Wildcards.

NFC

There is only a minor chance that the San Francisco 49ers or Seattle Seahawks would miss the Playoffs altogether. The 49ers would have to lose all three remaining games to have a very remote chance of missing the Playoffs, and the Seahawks would have to finish behind the Rams in the standings while finishing tied with the Bears at 10-6 to miss the Playoffs. For the 49ers to miss the Playoffs at 10-6, Minnesota and Los Angeles would have to finish 11-5 and Green Bay would have to finish 12-4 or 13-3. For the sake of making this a lot easier, let’s put both Seattle and San Francisco in the Playoffs, one as division champion and one as a wildcard, since the chance for both teams making the Playoffs is better than 97%.

The final wildcard spot would be up for grabs between Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Since the Bears can only improve to 10-6 by winning out, let’s show the tiebreakers at 10-6. If Minnesota, Chicago, and Los Angeles all finish 10-6, then the Rams make it a trio from the NFC West in the Playoffs. Los Angeles also wins a tiebreaker at 11-5 with Minnesota.

The Rams also win the tiebreaker with Green Bay if Minnesota wins the North, and the Packers and Rams both finish 10-6.

The Bears can earn the Wildcard if they win out to finish 10-6 and LA finishes 9-7 or 8-8, while either Minnesota or Green Bay also finishes 10-6.

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for The Wildcard Playoff Round: January 5-6, 2018

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Houston	Indianapolis	2.0	2.7	2.1	49.5
Dallas	Seattle	-1.6	-1.9	-2.8	44.5
Baltimore	L.A. Chargers	2.6	2.4	2.4	43
Chicago	Philadelphia	5.5	5.5	6.4	44.5

The Wildcard Playoff Schedule

Saturday,  January 5, 2019

4:35 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: ESPN

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

 

8:15 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: Fox Network

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys

 

Sunday, January 6, 2109

1:05 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: CBS

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

 

4:40 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: NBC

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

 

For the Divisional Playoff Round

The lower remaining seed in the AFC will play at Kansas City on Saturday, January 12, on NBC at 4:35 PM EST

 

The higher remaining seed in the NFC will play at the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday, January 12, on Fox Network at 8:15 PM EST

 

The higher remaining seed in the AFC will play at New England on Sunday, January 13, on CBS at 1:05 PM EST

 

The lower remaining seed in the NFC will play at New Orleans on Sunday, January 13, on Fox Network at 4:40 PM EST

Ratings of the Playoff Teams

Playoff Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg.	Total	W-L
New Orleans	112.3	112.3	112.3	112.3	27	13-3
Kansas City	106.8	107.0	106.6	106.8	30.5	12-4
LA Rams	106.5	106.7	106.3	106.5	29	13-3
Chicago	104.9	105.1	105.8	105.3	21.5	12-4
New England	105.0	105.1	104.9	105.0	22.5	11-5
Seattle	104.6	104.7	105.2	104.8	24	10-6
LA Chargers	104.3	105.0	104.8	104.7	23	12-4
Baltimore	104.5	104.9	104.7	104.7	20	10-6
Indianapolis	102.9	102.3	103.3	102.8	25.5	10-6
Houston	102.4	102.5	103.0	102.6	24	11-5
Philadelphia	102.4	102.6	102.5	102.5	23	9-7
Dallas	100.5	100.3	99.9	100.2	20.5	10-6

 

Note: The College Basketball Bracket Gurus will debut next week.  Most of the gurus are enjoying vacations this week and did not submit their data to us.

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Wildcard Playoff Round: January 6-7, 2018

All times given are Eastern Standard Time

Saturday, January 6, 2018

4:20 PM on ESPN

Tennessee Titans (9-7-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6-0)

PiRate: Kansas City by 8.1

Mean: Kansas City by 8.0

Bias: Kansas City by 8.7

Total: 45

Estimated Realistic Score: Kansas City 27  Tennessee 17

 

8:15 PM on NBC

Atlanta Falcons (10-6-0) at Los Angeles Rams (11-5-0)

PiRate: Los Angeles by 5.4

Mean: Los Angeles by 5.0

Bias: Los Angeles by 5.7

Total: 48

Estimated Realistic Score: Los Angeles 27  Atlanta 21

 

Sunday, January 7, 2018

1:05 PM on CBS

Buffalo Bills (9-7-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6-0)

PiRate: Jacksonville by 9.4

Mean: Jacksonville by 8.9

Bias: Jacksonville by 9.5

Total: 42

Estimated Realistic Score: Jacksonville 26  Buffalo 16

 

4:40 PM on Fox

Carolina Panthers (11-5-0) at New Orleans Saints (11-5-0)

PiRate: New Orleans by 5.8

Mean: New Orleans by 5.9

Bias: New Orleans by 6.0

Total: 53

Estimated Realistic Score: New Orleans 28  Carolina 24

 

 

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 17: December 31, 2017

Week 17 PiRate Rating Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Baltimore	Cincinnati	13.1	12.6	13.6	38
Detroit	Green Bay	3.2	3.0	3.7	46
Miami	Buffalo	1.8	1.6	1.3	41
Atlanta	Carolina	3.3	3.8	3.0	50
Tampa Bay	New Orleans	-7.9	-7.3	-8.0	49
Tennessee	Jacksonville	-2.4	-2.2	-2.8	45
New England	N.Y. Jets	16.4	16.9	16.5	39
Indianapolis	Houston	3.3	3.4	3.5	44
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	18.8	18.3	21.8	39
N.Y. Giants	Washington	-4.9	-4.6	-5.0	42
Minnesota	Chicago	12.7	12.3	13.4	34
Philadelphia	Dallas	6.9	6.0	8.0	46
LA Chargers	Oakland	9.3	8.4	10.2	44
Seattle	Arizona	8.7	8.9	8.3	41
Denver	Kansas City	-6.0	-6.1	-6.4	42
LA Rams	San Francisco	13.7	13.3	14.1	50

Current PiRate Ratings–12/26/2017

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New England	108.3	108.4	108.4	108.3	23	12-3
Buffalo	96.0	96.3	96.1	96.1	20	8-7
Miami	95.8	95.9	95.3	95.7	21	6-9
N. Y. Jets	94.3	94.0	94.4	94.3	16	5-10
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Pittsburgh	107.0	107.1	107.2	107.1	23	12-3
Baltimore	105.5	105.7	105.6	105.6	22	9-6
Cincinnati	95.3	96.1	94.9	95.5	16	6-9
Cleveland	90.7	91.4	87.9	90.0	16	0-15
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Jacksonville	103.3	103.2	103.4	103.3	23	10-5
Tennessee	97.8	98.0	97.6	97.8	22	8-7
Indianapolis	92.3	92.7	91.8	92.3	22	4-11
Houston	91.0	91.2	90.4	90.9	22	3-12
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Chargers	104.5	104.1	104.7	104.4	23	8-7
Kansas City	103.1	103.2	103.5	103.3	23	9-6
Oakland	97.7	98.3	97.0	97.7	21	6-9
Denver	95.2	95.0	95.1	95.1	19	5-10
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Philadelphia	106.7	105.4	107.7	106.6	23	13-2
Dallas	101.8	101.4	101.7	101.7	23	8-7
Washington	98.4	98.6	98.2	98.4	24	7-8
N.Y. Giants	91.5	92.0	91.2	91.6	18	2-13
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
Minnesota	107.4	107.0	108.1	107.5	18	12-3
Detroit	99.4	99.7	99.2	99.5	27	8-7
Green Bay	98.2	98.7	97.5	98.1	19	7-8
Chicago	96.7	96.8	96.7	96.7	16	5-10
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
New Orleans	107.4	106.8	107.9	107.4	28	11-4
Atlanta	103.9	103.7	104.1	103.9	24	9-6
Carolina	103.2	102.4	103.5	103.0	26	11-4
Tampa Bay	97.5	97.5	97.9	97.6	21	4-11
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals	W-L
LA Rams	107.3	106.6	107.9	107.3	25	11-4
Seattle	102.9	103.0	102.3	102.7	20	9-6
Arizona	97.2	97.1	97.0	97.1	21	7-8
San Francisco	96.1	95.8	96.3	96.1	25	5-10

Playoff Scenarios

You can go to any sports site online to see the generic playoff scenarios, where you can see what must happen for each potential playoff team to earn their spot.  Let’s take a look at the logical scenarios in the order that they are most likely to occur.

AFC

Baltimore

The Ravens have the overwhelming advantage among the teams vying for the two wildcard spots.  The 4 division championships have been clinched.  Baltimore is the number 5 seed if they win at home over Cincinnati Sunday.  The Ravens have about a 75% chance of winning this game and getting in at #5.  Even if the Ravens lose to the Bengals, if Either Buffalo or Tennessee lose but not both, the Ravens still get in as the number 6 seed.  If Baltimore loses, and both Buffalo and Tennessee lose, then Baltimore stays at number 5.

Baltimore falls out of the playoffs only if they lose to Cincinnati, and both Buffalo and Tennessee win.  The Ravens have about a 95% chance of making the playoffs.

Tennessee

The Titans have the best chance of making the playoffs as the 6-seed (or even 5-seed) of the remaining contenders.  If Tennessee beats Jacksonville on Sunday, the Titans are in as the 6-seed if Baltimore wins, and the 5-seed if Baltimore loses.  What Buffalo does in this instance does not affect the Titans moving up to number 5; only what Baltimore does affects the Titans seeding if they beat a Jacksonville team that has nothing to play for (3-seed win or lose) and will most likely rest their key players.

Tennessee can still make the playoffs at 8-8 if Buffalo and the LA Chargers lose.  They hold all tiebreakers over the Bills and Chargers.

Tennessee misses out on the playoffs if the Titans lose to the Jaguars and either Buffalo or the Chargers win.  The Titans chances for making the playoffs are about 55%.

Los Angeles Chargers

This is where the scenarios get a little tricky.  First, the Chargers can only get in the playoffs if they win and Tennessee loses.  However, they still need some help.  Either Baltimore must also win or Buffalo must lose, or else the Chargers will be eliminated.  If Buffalo and Baltimore win, then the Chargers get in over the Bills, but if Buffalo wins and Baltimore loses, then the Bills take the 6-seed.  Of course, if Tennessee and Buffalo lose, and the Chargers win, then the Chargers make it over both the Titans and Bills.  The Chargers have about a 37.5% chance of making the playoffs under these scenarios.

Buffalo

The Bills are on life support with only a 1 in 10 chance of making the playoffs.  There are at least two different sets of scenarios that will get the Bills in.  If they win at Miami in what will most likely be Jay Cutler’s real swan song, then they can get in if Baltimore loses, which will then eliminate the Chargers.  They would move up to a 5-seed in this scenario if Tennessee loses or gets the 6-seed if Tennessee wins.

The Bills will also make it as the 6-seed if they win and both Tennessee and the LA Chargers lose.  They can then earn the 5-seed if Baltimore also loses.

Top Seed

New England holds the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh, so the only way the Steelers can get the top seed is for the Jets to beat the Pats, while the Steelers send Cleveland to 0-16.

 

NFC

Philadelphia has clinched the top seed.  If Minnesota beats Chicago in Minneapolis, the Vikings get the 2-seed.  Minnesota can still get the 2-seed, if they lose to the Bears, and they will still get the 2-seed unless Carolina wins, New Orleans, loses, and the Rams lose. Then, Carolina would get this seed.  Chances are better than 95% that Minnesota gets the 2-seed.

For the 3-seed, the LA Rams hold the tiebreaker over New Orleans and Carolina, while New Orleans holds the tiebreaker over Carolina.

The 5-seed will go to either Carolina or New Orleans, whichever does not win the NFC South (New Orleans has about a 60% chance and Carolina a 40% chance).

The 6-seed is what is up for grabs

Atlanta

The Falcons earn this spot with a win over Carolina or a Seattle loss to Arizona.

Seattle

The Seahawks must win and Atlanta must lose.

Here are our Playoff Projections for this week.

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Pittsburgh
3	Jacksonville
4	Kansas City
5	Baltimore
6	Tennessee

NFC Seeding
1	Philadelphia
2	Minnesota
3	LA Rams
4	New Orleans
5	Carolina
6	Atlanta

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Baltimore

Jacksonville over Tennessee

Carolina over New Orleans

LA Rams over Atlanta

Divisional Round

New England over Kansas City

Jacksonville over Pittsburgh

Carolina over Philadelphia

LA Rams over Minnesota

Conference Championship

New England over Jacksonville

LA Rams over Carolina

Super Bowl 52

LA Rams over New England

 

 

 

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Wildcard Playoff Round: January 7-8, 2017

NFL Playoffs–Wildcard Round

Oakland Raiders (12-4-0) at Houston Texans (9-7-0)

Saturday, January 7, 4:35 PM EST

TV: ESPN

Las Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2,

Totals Line: 36 1/2

Note: Raiders’ rookie QB Connor Cook will start

Texans expect to start Brock Osweiler at QB who will play at less than 100%

PiRate Spread: Houston by 2.7

Mean Spread: Houston by 3.0

Bias Spread: Houston by 1.8

Totals Spread: 46 points

100 Simulations

Houston wins 77

Oakland wins 23

Average score: Houston 23  Oakland 18

Outlier A: Houston 41  Oakland 13

Outlier B: Oakland 34  Houston 16

 

Detroit Lions (9-7-0) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1)

Saturday, January 7, 8:15 PM EST

TV: NBC

Las Vegas Line: Seattle by 8

Totals Line: 43

PiRate Spread: Seattle by 8.6

Mean Spread: Seattle by 6.9

Bias Spread: Seattle by 9.3

Totals Spread: 43 points

100 Simulations

Seattle wins 86

Detroit wins 14

Average Score: Seattle 26  Detroit 16

Outlier A: Seattle 42  Detroit 13

Outlier B: Detroit 27  Seattle 20

 

Miami Dolphins (10-6-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5-0)

Sunday, January 8, 1:05 PM EST

TV: CBS

Note: Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is out for this game.  Matt Moore will start.

Las Vegas Spread: Pittsburgh by 10

Totals Spread: 47

PiRate Spread: Pittsburgh by 9.9

Mean Spread: Pittsburgh by 9.8

Bias Spread: Pittsburgh by 10.0

Totals Spread: 45 points

100 Simulations

Pittsburgh wins 73

Miami wins 27

Average Score: Pittsburgh 25  Miami 20

Outlier A: Pittsburgh 35  Miami 10

Outlier B: Miami 19  Pittsburgh 10

 

New York Giants (11-5-0) at Green Bay Packers (10-6-0)

Sunday, January 8, 4:40 PM EST

TV: Fox

Las Vegas Line: Green Bay by 5

Totals Line: 44 1/2

PiRate Spread: Green Bay by 5.6

Mean Spread: Green Bay by 6.1

Bias Spread: Green Bay by 5.0

Totals Spread: 57 points

100 simulations

Green Bay wins 59

New York wins 41

Average Score: Green Bay 26  New York 24

Outlier A: Green Bay 31  New York 13

Outlier B: New York 30  Green Bay 17

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 10: November 10-14, 2016

Beginning today, we start posting playoff projections.  Our playoff projections look ahead to remaining schedules and use a combination of Pirate Ratings and home field advantage to estimate the remaining won-loss records of all the teams.  Even though the last place teams do not figure to make the playoffs, we have to project their records as well in order to break ties.

In the AFC, we are projecting that it will take a minimum record of 10-6 to earn a wildcard spot.  It is a tiny bit easier in the NFC as of this week, as we project a 9-6-1 record will qualify for the playoffs.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
New England	110.7	109.2	111.8	110.6	67	44
Buffalo	103.2	103.3	103.7	103.4	63	40
N. Y. Jets	98.4	97.0	99.0	98.1	58	40
Miami	97.0	97.4	97.0	97.1	59	38
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Pittsburgh	102.8	102.7	103.5	103.0	62	41
Cincinnati	102.0	101.7	102.2	102.0	61	41
Baltimore	98.5	99.9	98.1	98.8	61	38
Cleveland	88.9	89.6	88.6	89.0	56	33
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Houston	98.1	99.0	97.9	98.3	61	37
Indianapolis	97.6	98.8	97.2	97.9	62	36
Tennessee	96.0	97.5	95.6	96.4	58	38
Jacksonville	92.9	94.5	92.2	93.2	58	35
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Denver	105.6	104.2	105.3	105.0	63	42
Kansas City	103.9	103.9	104.3	104.0	64	40
San Diego	100.5	101.2	100.4	100.7	65	36
Oakland	100.1	100.5	100.5	100.4	65	35
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Dallas	102.8	102.0	103.3	102.7	62	41
Philadelphia	103.2	101.5	102.7	102.5	63	40
Washington	100.3	100.1	100.3	100.2	62	38
N.Y. Giants	99.4	99.0	99.6	99.3	62	37
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Minnesota	103.1	102.3	103.0	102.8	59	44
Green Bay	101.0	100.9	100.7	100.9	62	39
Detroit	99.0	98.7	98.9	98.9	61	38
Chicago	95.4	94.0	95.1	94.9	56	39
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Atlanta	103.8	104.9	104.1	104.2	69	35
Carolina	103.5	103.3	103.6	103.5	62	42
New Orleans	100.2	101.4	100.3	100.6	67	34
Tampa Bay	95.3	96.0	94.9	95.4	59	36
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Seattle	106.5	104.1	107.1	105.9	62	44
Arizona	105.1	103.4	105.4	104.6	66	39
Los Angeles	98.4	99.4	98.1	98.7	57	42
San Francisco	88.9	90.3	88.0	89.1	53	36

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Totals
Baltimore	Cleveland	12.1	12.8	12.0	48
Carolina	Kansas City	2.6	2.4	2.3	45
Jacksonville	Houston	-2.7	-2.0	-3.2	49
New Orleans	Denver	-2.4	0.2	-2.0	54
New York Jets	Los Angeles	3.0	0.6	3.9	35
Philadelphia	Atlanta	2.4	-0.4	1.6	48
Tampa Bay	Chicago	2.9	5.0	2.8	42
Tennessee	Green Bay	-2.0	-0.4	-2.1	45
Washington	Minnesota	0.2	0.8	0.3	41
San Diego	Miami	6.5	6.8	6.4	52
Arizona	San Francisco	19.2	16.1	20.4	46
Pittsburgh	Dallas	3.0	3.7	3.2	44
New England	Seattle	7.2	8.1	7.7	43
New York Giants	Cincinnati	0.4	0.3	0.4	47

If The Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1	New England
2	Oakland
3	Houston
4	Baltimore
5	Kansas City
6	Denver
NFC
1	Dallas
2	Atlanta
3	Seattle
4	Minnesota
5	New York Giants
6	Washington

 

PiRate Ratings Projected Playoffs 

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Oakland
3	Indianapolis
4	Pittsburgh
5	Denver
6	Kansas City
NFC Seeding
1	Dallas
2	Seattle
3	Atlanta
4	Detroit
5	New York Giants
6	Washington

Wildcard Round

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Pittsburgh over Denver

Atlanta over Washington

New York Giants over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

New England over Kansas City

Oakland over Pittsburgh

New York Giants over Dallas

Seattle over Atlanta

 

Conference Championships

New England over Oakland

New York Giants over Seattle

 

SUPER BOWL

New York Giants over New England

PiRate Ratings NFL Wildcard Round

The 2016 NFL Playoffs on paper look like the most competitive in many years.  In the AFC, there is no clear cut winner, and it would not shock us at all if almost every game on this side was close.

 

The NFC appeared to have been top heavy with the top two seeds clearly better than the rest, but in the final two weeks, Carolina and Arizona appeared to be having some issues, while Minnesota and Seattle looked to be hitting their peaks.  The Washington Redskins closed on a nice streak as well, and only the Green Bay Packers really limped into the playoffs.

 

Final Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Washington	99.7	100.4	101.6	100.6	9-7-0	388	379
Philadelphia	98.0	97.8	98.3	98.0	7-9-0	377	430
N.Y. Giants	98.4	97.8	97.4	97.9	6-10-0	420	442
Dallas	97.8	96.3	96.0	96.7	4-12-0	275	374
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Minnesota	105.4	105.5	108.2	106.4	11-5-0	365	302
Green Bay	103.8	103.2	103.4	103.5	10-6-0	368	323
Detroit	100.1	99.4	100.1	99.9	7-9-0	358	400
Chicago	97.0	96.5	96.6	96.7	6-10-0	335	397
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Carolina	108.7	109.1	110.5	109.4	15-1-0	500	308
Atlanta	97.1	96.9	96.4	96.8	8-8-0	339	345
New Orleans	95.7	94.9	96.4	95.7	7-9-0	408	476
Tampa Bay	93.2	92.5	91.6	92.4	6-10-0	342	417
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Seattle	111.4	111.0	111.6	111.3	10-6-0	423	277
Arizona	109.8	109.7	111.0	110.2	13-3-0	489	313
St. Louis	96.8	97.5	97.5	97.3	7-9-0	280	330
San Francisco	94.2	93.0	93.9	93.7	5-11-0	238	387
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England	107.0	106.4	105.5	106.3	12-4-0	465	315
N. Y. Jets	102.4	103.1	102.8	102.8	10-6-0	387	314
Buffalo	101.2	101.8	101.4	101.5	8-8-0	379	359
Miami	96.5	96.3	95.4	96.1	6-10-0	310	389
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Pittsburgh	107.3	107.5	107.2	107.3	10-6-0	423	319
Cincinnati	106.8	107.3	107.3	107.1	12-4-0	419	279
Baltimore	98.3	97.6	97.3	97.7	5-11-0	328	401
Cleveland	92.5	92.0	92.5	92.3	3-13-0	278	432
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Houston	100.9	102.5	102.3	101.9	9-7-0	339	313
Indianapolis	95.6	95.8	95.3	95.6	8-8-0	333	408
Jacksonville	92.2	93.2	90.8	92.1	5-11-0	376	448
Tennessee	89.3	89.4	88.6	89.1	3-13-0	299	423
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Kansas City	105.6	106.4	105.8	105.9	11-5-0	405	287
Denver	103.9	103.6	103.8	103.8	12-4-0	355	296
San Diego	96.9	97.5	97.2	97.2	4-12-0	320	398
Oakland	96.5	98.1	96.5	97.0	7-9-0	359	399

 

The Playoff Teams Ratings

Current NFL Playoffs PiRate Ratings
NFC	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Seattle	111.4	111.0	111.6	111.3	10-6-0	423	277
Arizona	109.8	109.7	111.0	110.2	13-3-0	489	313
Carolina	108.7	109.1	110.5	109.4	15-1-0	500	308
Minnesota	105.4	105.5	108.2	106.4	11-5-0	365	302
Green Bay	103.8	103.2	103.4	103.5	10-6-0	368	323
Washington	99.7	100.4	101.6	100.6	9-7-0	388	379
AFC	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Pittsburgh	107.3	107.5	107.2	107.3	10-6-0	423	319
Cincinnati	106.8	107.3	107.3	107.1	12-4-0	419	279
New England	107.0	106.4	105.5	106.3	12-4-0	465	315
Kansas City	105.6	106.4	105.8	105.9	11-5-0	405	287
Denver	103.9	103.6	103.8	103.8	12-4-0	355	296
Houston	100.9	102.5	102.3	101.9	9-7-0	339	313

Note: Computer Simulations of the Wildcard Playoff Round will be published on Friday, January 8

This Week’s Games
Week Number:	Wildcard Round
Date of Games:	January 9-10
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Kansas City	-1.7	-0.9	-0.5
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	2.0	2.3	2.6
Minnesota	Seattle	-3.0	-2.5	-0.4
Washington	Green Bay	-1.1	0.2	1.2

PiRate Ratings–NFL Wildcard Round Preview

Wildcard Playoff TV Schedule

Day	Time (ET)	Game	TV	Radio
Saturday, January 4	4:35 PM	Kansas City @ Indianapolis	NBC	Westwood 1
Saturday, January 4	8:10 PM	New Orleans @ Philadelphia	NBC	Westwood 1
Sunday, January 5	1:05 PM	San Diego @ Cincinnati	CBS	Westwood 1
Sunday, January 5	4:40 PM	San Francisco @ Green Bay	Fox	Westwood 1
To find a local Westwood 1 radio affiliate, check this link:
http://westwoodonesports.com/stations/

Weather Forecasts For Kickoff and Next 3-4 hours

Indianapolis—Dome Stadium (no weather effect)

Philadelphia—Partly Cloudy / Temperatures remaining steady near 28 degrees and light winds

Cincinnati—90 % chance of rain/snow mix / Temperatures falling through the 30’s with moderate winds

Green Bay—Brutally cold with temperatures falling from about 5 at kickoff to -5 but dry.

 

 

PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Indianapolis	Kansas City	2.9	4.6	2.9
Philadelphia	New Orleans	-0.2	0.3	-0.6
Cincinnati	San Diego	8.1	8.1	8.4
Green Bay	San Francisco	-5.1	-6.2	-6.1

 

 

Computer Simulations (100x)

Kansas City at Indianapolis

Kansas City Wins: 37

Indianapolis Wins: 63

Average Margin: Indianapolis 24.4  Kansas City 22.7

KC Outlier Win: 30-10

Ind Outlier Win: 27-7

 

New Orleans at Philadelphia

New Orleans Wins: 29

Philadelphia Wins: 71

Average Margin: Philadelphia 31.1  New Orleans 23.8

NO Outlier Win: 38-20

Phi Outlier Win: 34-13

 

San Diego at Cincinnati

San Diego Wins: 44

Cincinnati Wins: 56

Average Margin: Cincinnati 25.2  San Diego 24.5

SD Outlier Win: 28-12

Cin Outlier Win: 31-10

(8 simulations had an OT victory—5 for Cin and 3 for SD)

(Lowest Standard Deviation in this round of sims)

 

San Francisco at Green Bay

San Francisco Wins: 62

Green Bay Wins: 38

Average Margin: San Francisco 26.3  Green Bay 22.0

SF Outlier Win: 37-16

GB Outlier Win: 28-17

(GB’s 11-point outlier margin occurred 7 other times)

 

PiRate Ratings: NFL–November 28-December 2, 2013

The Division & Wildcard Races

NFC East: It is now a two-team race between Dallas and Philadelphia with the Giants and Redskins falling back out of the race.  Both teams have three home games remaining, but the important Week 17 game between the two rivals takes place at Cowboys Stadium.  This week, we favor Dallas to edge the Eagles out, and we do not project the Eagles to get in as a wildcard.

 

NFC North: Mediocrity has set in with the loss of two starting quarterbacks.  Aaron Rodgers is worth about 10-13 points per game, and his loss has turned the Packers into a poor team.  Matt Flynn is an improvement over Scott Tolzien, but the Packers will not get their star back until Week 14, by which time Green Bay could be 5-6-1 and 1 ½ games behind Detroit and possibly Chicago.  We believe that the Bears and Lions might both finish 9-7, so Rodgers would have to lead the Packers to four consecutive wins when he returns.  The Rodgers of December 8 will not be the Rodgers of September 8, and we believe the division race will be decided in Week 15 and Week 16.  In Week 15, Chicago plays at Cleveland and Detroit hosts Baltimore.  The following week, Chicago plays at Philadelphia, and Detroit hosts the Giants.  We favor Detroit by a tiny edge this week.

 

NFC South: Short of a collapse, Carolina will secure the number 5 seed with the first wildcard, while New Orleans will earn the number two seed and host a divisional round playoff game.  Or, it could be the other way around, since the two hot teams have yet to face off this season.  We believe the Saints will hold onto the two-game edge.  This week could very well be a preview of the NFC Championship Game, as New Orleans goes to Seattle on Monday Night Football.  New Orleans does have an incredibly tough December with three road games against teams with a combined 23-10 record as well as Carolina at home.

 

NFC West:  Seattle should secure home field advantage through the Conference Championship Game.  The Seahawks host the Saints this week and follow that up with a road trip to San Francisco.  At worst, if they lose both games, they should still finish 13-3.  The 49ers and Cardinals are the top two competitors for the sixth and final playoff spot.  The two square off in Phoenix in Week 17, but we believe that San Francisco will have clinched the wildcard bid before that game.  The 49ers have a schedule advantage for the next four weeks with three home games, while Arizona has three road games in the next four weeks.

 

AFC East: It is now safe to write New England’s name in ink as the official AFC East Champion.  With a three game lead against mediocre opposition, there is no chance that the Patriots will miss out on the playoffs.  A possible 12-4 record should earn the Pats a Divisional Round home game and first round bye.  The Dolphins, Bills, and Jets are all within one game of the final wildcard spot, but we do not like any of the trio’s chances.  Miami and the Jets have serious problems and appear to be heading to valleys.  Buffalo could pass both and finish in 2^nd place with a 7-9 record.

 

AFC North: Cincinnati is vulnerable here.  The Bengals are not a complete team.  They are inconsistent on both sides of the ball, but the real reason is that some opponents can exploit their weaknesses, while others cannot.  What is left on their schedule?  Four teams capable of exploiting their weaknesses.  A 2-3 finish is quite possible, which would send the Bengals to a 9-7 record.  It should still be enough to win the division, but the Ravens and Steelers are both capable of finishing 9-7 as well.  Thursday night’s Baltimore-Pittsburgh game at M&T Bank Stadium will leave one of the rivals at 6-6 with an excellent chance to go 3-1 down the stretch.

 

AFC South: Indianapolis is much like Cincinnati, except the Colts are even more vulnerable to teams that have superb passing quarterbacks.  Still, the rest of this league is weaker than the three weaker AFC East teams.  At worst, the Colts will falter to finish 10-6, and that will win this league by two to four games.  Tennessee is the technical number six team as of this week, but the Titans’ next two games are on the road against Indianapolis and Denver, which will send them to a 5-8 record with three to play.  The last wildcard spot will go to a 9-7 team.

 

AFC West: The race has gotten a little interesting.  Peyton Manning once again proved his inability to play in cold weather.  The Broncos covered for him in the first half with the defense scoring or setting up the scores, but Manning had one of his poorest performances in a Broncos’ uniform.  Kansas City’s once stellar defense has been picked apart in successive weeks by division rivals.  Still, the Chiefs need only win one more game to wrap up a wildcard bid.  San Diego is the 5-6 team with the overall best chance to finish 9-7.  Phillip Rivers has seen his career resurrected with Coach Mike McCoy and offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt present.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Dallas Cowboys	100.6	101.9	100.4
Philadelphia Eagles	98.9	100.1	99.2
New York Giants	96.3	96.1	95.5
Washington Redskins	95.0	95.0	94.7
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Chicago Bears	100.5	100.2	99.9
Detroit Lions	99.9	100.3	99.8
Green Bay Packers	98.2	97.0	97.1
Minnesota Vikings	94.6	94.0	93.8
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans Saints	107.8	109.2	108.7
Carolina Panthers	106.1	106.4	106.7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	97.3	97.1	97.4
Atlanta Falcons	94.8	94.0	93.8
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco 49ers	110.1	110.8	110.6
Seattle Seahawks	107.6	107.6	107.8
Arizona Cardinals	100.9	102.2	101.5
St. Louis Rams	100.8	101.6	101.3
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England Patriots	106.6	104.9	106.9
Miami Dolphins	98.6	98.3	98.9
Buffalo Bills	97.5	96.6	97.5
New York Jets	93.0	91.3	92.7
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Cincinnati Bengals	106.3	106.2	106.4
Baltimore Ravens	102.8	102.4	102.9
Pittsburgh Steelers	99.6	99.6	100.0
Cleveland Browns	95.8	95.5	95.4
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis Colts	100.6	100.7	100.7
Tennessee Titans	98.0	98.1	98.2
Houston Texans	95.2	94.5	95.1
Jacksonville Jaguars	88.8	88.5	88.5
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Denver Broncos	110.6	110.9	111.0
Kansas City Chiefs	102.3	103.7	102.7
San Diego Chargers	101.3	101.9	101.2
Oakland Raiders	93.6	93.4	93.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Detroit	Green Bay	4.2	5.8	5.2
Dallas	Oakland	10.0	11.5	9.7
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	5.7	5.3	5.4
Carolina	Tampa Bay	11.3	11.8	11.8
Cleveland	Jacksonville	10.0	10.0	9.9
Indianapolis	Tennessee	6.3	6.6	6.3
Kansas City	Denver	-5.3	-4.2	-5.3
Minnesota	Chicago	-3.4	-3.7	-3.6
N Y Jets	Miami	-2.6	-4.0	-3.2
Philadelphia	Arizona	1.5	1.4	1.2
Buffalo (@ Toronto)	Atlanta	4.2	4.1	5.2
San Francisco	St. Louis	12.3	12.2	12.3
Houston	New England	-8.4	-7.4	-8.8
San Diego	Cincinnati	-2.0	-1.3	-2.2
Washington	N Y Giants	1.2	1.4	1.7
Seattle	New Orleans	2.8	1.4	2.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Playoff Projections

A F C

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Indianapolis

4. Cincinnati

5. Kansas City

6. San Diego

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Dallas

4. Detroit

5. Carolina

6. San Francisco

 

Wildcard Round

San Diego over Indianapolis

Kansas City over Cincinnati

San Francisco over Dallas

Carolina over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Denver over San Diego

Kansas City over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

New Orleans over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Denver

Seattle over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl

Seattle over Kansas City