Mid-American Conference Preview

The MAC has been up and down for many years, rarely a middle of the pack conference among the non-elite. There was a time when Toledo and Miami of Ohio were regulars in the major polls. Miami actually beat Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in three consecutive bowl games. The MAC has produced the New Year’s Day Bowl team that was guaranteed to the top Group of 5 team.

There have been years where this league was considerably weaker than the better Group of 5 conferences, and there have been a couple teams that have come and gone from the league. Over the Winter, the MAC appeared to be expanding to 14 teams with the additions of Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State. The two Conference USA schools and rivals chose to remain where they were.

Here is the official media poll for the Mid-American Conference

Mid-American Conference
		Votes
#	East	1st Place	Overall
1	Miami (O)	20	139
2	Kent St.	3	116
3	Buffalo	0	78
4	Ohio	0	72
5	Bowling Green	1	71
6	Akron	0	28
#	West	1st Place	Overall
1	Northern Illinois	11	122
2	Toledo	9	120
3	Central Michigan	4	112
4	Western Michigan	0	56
5	Eastern Michigan	0	52
6	Ball St.	0	42
	Championship	Overall
	Northern Illinois	9
	Toledo	6
	Miami (O)	5
	Central Michigan	4

Here are the preseason PiRate Ratings for the MAC.

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (Ohio)	91.5	94.5	94.3	93.4
Kent St.	87.3	90.1	87.6	88.3
Bowling Green	87.7	86.4	86.8	87.0
Ohio	84.2	86.9	86.4	85.8
Buffalo	83.0	85.7	84.7	84.4
Akron	78.2	79.2	77.8	78.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
N. Illinois	97.8	98.2	98.3	98.1
Central Mich.	93.0	95.3	96.3	94.9
Toledo	93.4	94.6	95.3	94.4
Western Mich.	92.1	93.4	93.5	93.0
Eastern Mich.	88.3	88.9	88.0	88.4
Ball St.	84.6	85.9	84.7	85.0
MAC	88.4	89.9	89.5	89.3

The PiRate Ratings are predictive in nature. However, they are only designed to look forward one week. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the MAC.

East	MAC	Overall
Miami (O)	7-1	8-5
Kent St.	5-3	6-6
Ohio	3-5	5-7
Bowling Green	3-5	4-8
Buffalo	1-7	3-9
Akron	0-8	1-11
West	MAC	Overall
Northern Illinois	8-0	11-2
Toledo	6-2	8-4
Central Michigan	6-2	8-4
Western Michigan	5-3	7-5
Ball St.	2-6	4-8
Eastern Michigan	2-6	4-8

Northern Illinois picked to beat Miami (O) in the MAC Championship Game.

Coming Tomorrow: The Sun Belt Conference

2019 Mid-American Conference Football Preview

The Mid-American Conference has been quite competitive in recent years with multiple teams competing in both divisions for their division title.  2019 should be no different in the West Division, but this could be a year where Ohio easily wins the East.  After the Bobcats, the other five teams have glaring weaknesses that can easily be exploited by a roster and coaching staff at Ohio, and the Western Division competitors.

The West Division is a four-team race.  Western Michigan returns more starters than any other team in the FBS Football.  The Broncos finished a game behind division winner Northern Illinois, and WMU is the team to beat in the West.  However, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, and Northern Illinois have enough talent to get a piece of the division flag, and all four teams could finish at 6-2 or 5-3 if they beat up on each other.

Here is the way the MAC Media representatives voted at the preseason media poll.

 

Mid-American Conference Media Poll
East Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Ohio	24	144
2	Miami (O)	0	107
3	Buffalo	0	100
4	Kent St.	0	62
5	Akron	0	54
6	Bowling Green	0	37
West Division
Pos.	Team	1st Place Votes	Overall Votes
1	Toledo	15	127
2	Western Michigan	5	112
3	Northern Illinois	3	103
4	Eastern Michigan	0	83
5	Ball St.	0	43
6	Central Michigan	1	36

 

Championship Game Winner
Ohio	13
Toledo	7
Western Michigan	2
Northern Illlinois	1
Central Michigan	1

 

Here are our preseason PiRate Ratings for the MAC.

Preseason PiRate Ratings–Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio U	96.3	95.2	97.8	96.5
Miami (O)	90.5	89.0	90.9	90.1
Buffalo	88.0	89.0	89.0	88.6
Kent St.	84.8	85.5	85.0	85.1
Akron	83.1	83.4	83.3	83.2
Bowling Green	78.3	78.5	78.7	78.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	99.4	98.2	99.7	99.1
Northern Illinois	94.3	93.2	94.4	94.0
Toledo	91.2	90.8	92.3	91.4
Eastern Michigan	88.8	89.2	89.6	89.2
Ball St.	85.6	85.4	85.1	85.4
Central Michigan	78.3	79.2	78.4	78.6
MAC Averages	88.2	88.1	88.7	88.3

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss
East Division
Pos	Team	MAC	Overall
1	Ohio	7-1	9-4
2	Miami (O)	5-3	6-6
3	Buffalo	5-3	6-6
4	Akron	3-5	4-8
5	Kent St.	3-5	4-8
6	Bowling Green	1-7	2-10
West Division
Pos	Team	MAC	Overall
1	Western Michigan	7-1	10-3*
2	Toledo	6-2	8-4
3	Eastern Michigan	5-3	7-5
4	Northern Illlinois	5-3	6-6
5	Ball St.	1-7	2-10
6	Central Michigan	0-8	2-10
*	Western Michigan picked to win MAC Championship Game

 

Bowl Predictions
Bahamas	Western Michigan
Boca Raton	Ohio
Camellia	Eastern Michigan
Dollar General	Northern Illinois
Idaho Potato	Toledo

 

Also Bowl Eligible

Buffalo

Miami (O)

 

Coaches That Could Move To FBS Power 5 Conferences

Lance Leipold, Buffalo

Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan

Jason Candle, Toledo

Tim Lester, Western Michigan

 

Coaches On The Hot Seat

Mike Neu, Ball St.

 

Top Quarterbacks

Nathan Rourke, Ohio

Jon Wassink, Western Michigan

Mitchell Guadagni, Toledo

 

Best Offense

Western Michigan

Toledo

Ohio

Best Defense

Northern Illinois

Ohio

Buffalo

 

Coming Tomorrow: The Sun Belt Conference

 

 

 

 

 

2017 Mid-American Conference Preview

Today, the PiRate Ratings kicks off its annual college football conference previews with the Mid-American Conference.  Last year, the MAC was a sneaky little league.  Very few so-called experts picked this league to produce the automatic New Year’s 6 Bowl participant, but when Western Michigan ran the table in the regular season, and then the Broncos beat Ohio in the MAC title game, it was WMU that ventured down to Jerry World to play in the Cotton Bowl.

There is a slight chance that this league could produce the special Group of 5 team again this season, but we won’t expect it this time around.  Not only is there no overpowering team in this league. the schedule for the best team just won’t allow for an undefeated season and most likely not a one-loss season.

2017 looks to be the year where college football begins to look more and more like the NFL, and the teams with experienced and talented quarterbacks, quick receivers, quick defensive backs, and above-average linemen in that order will dominate the land.  It is certainly true in this league, where the top two QBs belong to the two teams we are picking to win the divisional races–Logan Woodside at Toledo and Gus Ragland at Miami of Ohio.

Because the Poinsettia Bowl went bust, there is one less bowl game this season.  The MAC figures to be the league that suffers the most from this cancellation.  We believe there will be two bowl eligible teams in the league that do not receive bowl bids.  At least, we do not foresee a 5-7 team having to fill in as an at-large, at least until another bowl replaces the defunct Poinsettia.  There could be one set for Wrigley Field in Chicago in the future, and that most assuredly would be good news for this league.

Here is how the MAC Media picked the teams to finish the season.

MAC East Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Ohio U	11	131	0
2	Miami (O)	12	129	1
3	Bowling Green	1	88	1
4	Akron	0	79	0
5	Buffalo	0	41	0
6	Kent St.	0	36	0
MAC West Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Toledo	22	142	21
2	Western Michigan	1	107	1
3	Northern Illinois	1	89	0
4	Eastern Michigan	0	74	0
5	Central Michigan	0	62	0
6	Ball St.	0	30	0

The PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings differ slightly, but not all that much.  Remember that the PiRate Ratings are really only predictive for the next week’s schedule, and they cannot be used to look forward past that week.  Because, we set certain factors into each teams’ future to account for depth or lack thereof, these ratings can change even if a team wins by the exact amount predicted.

Here are the PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings for the pre-season

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami (O)	94.3	96.6	96.8	95.9
Ohio U	90.3	92.0	91.2	91.2
Akron	84.3	88.5	84.5	85.8
Kent St.	83.7	85.3	84.9	84.6
Bowling Green	82.4	82.6	83.7	82.9
Buffalo	79.7	83.7	81.6	81.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	102.1	98.4	103.8	101.4
Toledo	99.3	99.1	100.9	99.8
Eastern Michigan	93.5	93.1	93.6	93.4
Central Michigan	90.4	90.6	90.8	90.6
Northern Illinois	85.7	85.8	85.9	85.8
Ball St.	78.2	80.5	79.7	79.5
MAC Averages	88.7	89.7	89.8	89.4

This is our not so scientific attempt to predict the won-loss records and bowl projections.  As we stated above, our ratings do not look past the next week’s schedule.

Mid-American Conference Projected Standings
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
East Division
Miami (O)	6-2	9-4	Camellia
Ohio U	5-3	8-4	Idaho Potato
Akron	4-4	5-7
Kent St.	2-6	3-9
Bowling Green	2-6	3-9
Buffalo	2-6	3-9
West Division
Toledo	8-0	11-2	Bahamas
Western Michigan	6-2	8-4	Dollar General
Eastern Michigan	5-3	6-6	eligible
Central Michigan	5-3	6-6	eligible
Northern Illinois	2-6	4-8
Ball St.	1-7	3-9
Toledo to win MAC Title Game

Coming tomorrow–Conference USA

 

 

 

 

 

College Football Ratings & Spreads For October 27-29, 2016

End of the Month Conference Inventory & Bowl Outlook
A big turn of events over the weekend changed the landscape of the projected playoffs, as Penn St. put Ohio St. in major jeopardy. Should Ohio St. beat Michigan, and the three teams finish in a tie for first place, and Nebraska loses a game prior to the Big Ten Championship Game, the league could see itself left out in the cold. Let’s take a look at all the conference races, starting with the Group of 5 leagues.

American Athletic Conference
Following a win at Central Florida, Temple’s victory over South Florida on Saturday puts the Owls in the driver’s seat in the Eastern Division. TU could win out to finish the regular season at 7-1 in the league and 9-3 overall, advancing to the conference championship game.

USF and UCF will most likely decide second place in the East when the two rivals face off at the end of the year. Cincinnati is still in contention for bowl eligibility, but the Bearcats have a difficult final month and could lose out against a slate featuring Temple, Central Florida, and Tulsa on the road and BYU and Memphis at home. Cinti must win two of these games to get to 6-6, and for now we are picking the Bearcats to fall short. Connecticut and East Carolina don’t have enough winnable games remaining to get to 6-6.

In the West, Houston is almost out of the race now after SMU shocked them in Dallas. Navy is in the driver’s seat with its win over Memphis, while Tulsa is the only serious contender to the Midshipmen. Tulsa must win at Memphis this weekend to make the game with Navy on November 12 the division title game.

Projected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7

Conference USA
Both divisions are very much up for grabs with multiple teams still alive in the race to the conference title game. In the East, Western Kentucky hung 52 first half points on Old Dominion to knock the Monarchs off the perch as the last CUSA unbeaten team. Now, WKU, ODU, Middle Tennessee, and Florida Int’l. all have a conference loss. Middle Tennessee plays at FIU this week; Western plays at Florida Atlantic, and ODU plays at UTEP. If the three favorites win as we think they will, it will make this division a three-team race in November, and all three teams could win out at that point. For now, we will take the Hilltoppers to win the division.

The West is just as interesting as the East with Louisiana Tech, Southern Mississippi, and North Texas all with one conference loss. The schedule favors the Mean Green, and North Texas looks like the strongest team in the division at this point. Coach Seth Luttrell is in his first year in Denton, after serving as an assistant at Texas Tech, and he should be the easy Coach of the Year in this league after his team was picked to finish last.

Projected Bowl Eligible Teams: 6

Independents
What looked like three for sure bowl spots going to Independents now could be reduced to just one. BYU is in good shape to gain bowl eligibility and earn their basically automatic bid to the Poinsettia Bowl. Army was on the way to bowl eligibility, but the Black Knights have fallen on hard times in recent weeks. At 4-3, the Cadets must get to 7-5 to be bowl eligible due to their playing two FCS teams this year. This means, they must win twice from among Wake Forest, Air Force, Notre Dame, and Navy plus Morgan State to go bowling. Of course, there is the caveat that if they should fall one win short at 6-6 but not enough teams earn bowl eligibility, they could still get a bowl bid as an alternate before any 5-7 teams are considered.

Notre Dame looks like a 5-7 team at best. The question is, “would the school accept a bowl bid at 5-7, if their high APR score allows them to qualify for a bowl as an alternate?” For now, we are going with the Irish to accept a bowl at 5-7 if they are so needed to fill out the field of 80.

Projected Bowl Eligible Teams: 1 but with Army and Notre Dame receiving bids as non-qualifying alternates

Mid-American Conference
It’s all about the Broncos, no trouble. Western Michigan looks like the odds-on favorite to run the table to finish the season 13-0 and take the Group of 5 automatic bid to a New Year’s 6 Bowl. Coach P.J. Fleck could receive national coach of the year consideration, and WMU could see a top 10 regular season finish in the rankings before the Cotton Bowl bid they would receive. The Broncos own wins at Northwestern and at Illinois this year, so they will not be a pushover for a possible 11-1 opponent from a Power 5 league.

The race in the Western Division is not done just yet. Toledo is still undefeated in league play, and the Rockets close the regular season playing at WMU on Black Friday. The entire Western Division is still alive for bowl eligibility, but it looks like four of the six will make it, while two don’t. Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan are the two most likely to top six wins.

The Eastern Division is down to two teams in contention for both the divisional crown and bowl eligibility. Ohio and Akron might be the sixth and seventh best teams in the MAC, but the winner of their contest on November 22 at Peden Stadium in Athens will decide which team gets to be fodder for WMU in the conference championship game.

Projected Bowl Eligible Teams: 6

Mountain West Conference
Boise State is the current leader for the Group of 5 NY6 Bowl bid, but the PiRates believe the Broncos are going to stub their toes somewhere before December 3. In fact, the way BSU has played in recent weeks, we can see a scenario where they do not even win the division.

Wyoming is the team playing well enough to knock BSU off the perch. The Cowboys are riding a powerful offense and an opportunistic defense under Coach Craig Bohl and sit with a 3-0 league mark. Boise State plays the Cowboys in Laramie this week, and the winner should take the division flag.

The entire Mountain Division could finish 6-6 or better overall. Air Force started hot and has fallen on hard times in October, but the Falcons need just two more wins and have Fresno State and San Jose State on the remaining schedule. Colorado State and New Mexico also need just two more wins to get to 6-6, and that is what we believe both will get. Utah State is 3-4 and needs three more wins, but the Aggies might be fortunate with just two more wins. At 5-7, USU could still earn a bowl as an alternate due to their acceptable APR score.

The West Division looks cut and dry at this point. San Diego State can already start preparing for the MWC Championship Game. The Aztecs’ only competitor for the division crown is Hawaii, and the game between the two teams will be at Qualcomm Stadium in two weeks.

With a home loss to Colorado State, UNLV is now most likely out of the bowl picture. A 5-7 record won’t work for the Rebels due to a low APR score.

The MWC gets six bowl bids, and if Boise State does not earn the NY6 bowl bid, there will be one extra team available as an at-large candidate for another bowl. Most likely, this will be a bowl east of the Mississippi.

Projected Bowl Eligible Teams: 7 with Utah State a possible 5-7 alternate

Sun Belt Conference
This is the one league where more bowl eligible teams should be produced than conference bowl tie-ins. The SBC has four bowl guarantees, and they could provide a fifth team as a fill-in for another bowl. As of today, we believe that five teams will become bowl eligible, and the fill-in spot will not be available. So,thanks to geography, this means one team from this league will be at the top of the chain when at-large contenders are selected prior to the 5-7 teams getting their shots.

Troy looks like the strongest team this year, and the Trojans are our favorite to win the league and accept the New Orleans Bowl bid that goes to the league champion. Arkansas State, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern are all still in contention and should be bowl eligible, although

Arkansas State has little room for error. We believe Idaho still has a good chance to get to 7-5, but we do not hold out a lot of hope for Louisiana-Lafayette or South Alabama.

Projected Bowl Eligible Teams: 5

POWER 5 CONFERENCES
The race for the four playoff spots looks much clearer today, but we believe there are going to be some big upsets still. Our bowl projections could still have wide swings, so what you see today is just one wacky way the season could wind up. If the season ended today, Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, and Washington would be your four playoff teams.

We are predicting that two of these four will lose before the season ends, and one from this list will not make the playoffs. For this week’s entry, we are going to project Clemson losing to Florida State or to the Coastal Division Champion in the ACC title game. The Tigers are missing something on both sides of the ball this year, and we believe they will stumble one time. If CU loses to Florida State this week and then wins out to finish 12-1, the Tigers might still crack the playoffs as the #4 seed. What happens with Louisville in this scenario? The Cardinals could be 11-1, and because they would still not qualify for the ACC Championship Game if they finished tied with Clemson, they would be looking at an Orange Bowl bid or Cotton Bowl bid.

The team that concerns us as of this week if Washington. The Huskies play three very tough road games before the season concludes. They might get by Utah in Salt Lake City this week, and they should win at Cal in two weeks, but the season finale against rival Washington State is the perfect setup for the Cougars to upset the Apple Cup cart. If Washington State loses just one conference game and beats Washington on Black Friday, WSU will earn the Pac-12 North title, and UW will be out of the playoff race with no extra game to build back their resume.

The Big 12 still has two undefeated teams in Baylor and West Virginia. Both have fine squads, but we do not see either going 12-0, and 12-0 is what it will take for either to get to the Playoffs this year. The Big 12 decided not to expand, and that basically was an edict from the big state school in Austin, Texas. That decision could keep this league as the fifth best Power 5 league more years than not.

The Big Ten is not done just yet. Michigan still has to win at Ohio State, and the Buckeyes are not ready to roll over and let that team up north come into the Giant Horseshoe and leave undefeated. As of today, we believe the Wolverines will claw their way to a win in Columbus for the first time since 2000. If Ohio State wins, the East could finish with a three-way tie between the Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Penn State.

Nebraska currently leads the West with by a game over Northwestern and two over Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota. We believe the Cornhuskers are about to experience a tough final five weeks of the regular season with three losses possible. That opens the door for Wisconsin and Northwestern. The winner of the Badgers-Wildcats game on November 5 could emerge as the division winner if Nebraska does lose three times.

The SEC looks like an obvious play toy for Alabama. The Crimson Tide has a week off before facing LSU in Baton Rouge in two weeks. We believe the Tide will win by 17 or more points in this game. A closing game with Auburn could be interesting if the Tigers continue to play like they did against Arkansas on Saturday. However, we believe that was an anamoly, and Auburn will be lucky to lose by less than 14 to Alabama.

Texas A&M should not get too down for losing at Bama by 19 points. The Aggies are still alive in the Playoff picture. If A&M wins out, and the expected losses to teams we believe will lose actually happen, then TAMU could sneak into the playoff field at 11-1.

Atlantic Coast Conference
Projected Bowl Eligible Teams: 10 with a possible 11th as a 5-7 alternate

Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, Wake Forest, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Miami, Georgia Tech
Syracuse can earn a bid at 5-7.

Big 12 Conference
Projected Bowl Eligible Teams: 6

Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU
We have Texas Tech at 5-7 and Texas at 4-8 as of today.

Big Ten Conference
Projected Bowl Eligible Teams: 10

Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota

Pac-12 Conference
Projected Bowl Eligible Teams: 8

Washington, Washington State, California, Stanford, USC, Colorado, Utah, Arizona State
We have Oregon at 5-7 and UCLA at 4-8 as of now. UCLA can jump into the alternate bowl mix at 5-7, but the Ducks will be out of luck.

Southeastern Conference
Projected Bowl Eligible Teams: 9

Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee
As of this week, we have four teams (Kentucky, South Carolina, Missouri, and Vanderbilt) in contention to finish 5-7. We believe three of these teams will finish 5-7: Kentucky, South Carolina, and the winner of the Missouri/Vanderbilt game in Columbia on November 12. Should Vanderbilt win this game, they will move to the number one spot in the 5-7 bowl teams (assuming Duke finishes 4-8 and Minnesota is bowl eligible). Should Missouri win that game, then South Carolina will move into the fourth slot of 5-7 teams and have a decent shot of getting a bid.

 

The 5-7 Mess

As the season progresses, the number of mediocre teams has increased rather than decreased. As of today, it looks like at least four bowl spots will have to be awarded to 5-7 teams, and this includes a 6-6 Army team that actually needs seven wins to gain bowl eligibility.
The way the at-large bowl spots are filled out are not necessarily loved by the bowls themselves. For instance, if a 7-5 Idaho team is available for a bowl, while Notre Dame or Oregon sits at 5-7, it is the Vandals that must fill that bowl slot before the two powers can be considered. Imagine if you are the Birmingham or Indepedence Bowl, and you are faces with inviting a 7-5 team from almost 2,000 miles away and one which will soon be dropping out of FBS football. That’s the breaks, and it is what happens when there are about 10 too many bowls.
One solution that has not been discusses is allowing FCS teams to fill bowls. What if an undefeated Sam Houston State could get an Armed Forces Bowl Bid rather than play in the FCS Playoffs? Might an undefeated Citadel team be a better choice for the Birmingham Bowl than a 5-7 team from out West?

Our complete Bowl Projections follow below.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.6	128.8	135.5	133.3
2	Michigan	129.6	127.1	130.1	128.9
3	Louisville	130.0	124.8	130.1	128.3
4	Washington	129.0	121.6	129.1	126.6
5	Clemson	126.6	119.3	125.6	123.8
6	Ohio St.	123.0	122.7	123.5	123.1
7	LSU	124.5	119.5	124.1	122.7
8	Auburn	122.7	120.6	122.7	122.0
9	Oklahoma	119.8	118.0	119.4	119.1
10	Virginia Tech	118.9	117.5	119.3	118.6
11	Tennessee	119.0	115.9	118.4	117.8
12	Texas A&M	117.3	115.3	117.1	116.6
13	Florida St.	119.0	112.6	118.0	116.5
14	North Carolina	118.1	111.7	118.0	115.9
15	Colorado	117.2	112.7	117.0	115.7
16	Wisconsin	115.7	113.7	116.5	115.3
17	USC	117.2	112.7	114.9	114.9
18	Miami	116.6	110.6	116.2	114.5
19	Baylor	114.1	114.4	114.7	114.4
20	Florida	114.0	116.3	112.3	114.2
21	Oklahoma St.	113.8	115.1	113.4	114.1
22	Pittsburgh	115.2	111.5	114.4	113.7
23	Western Michigan	112.6	111.5	114.3	112.8
24	Ole Miss	115.0	109.5	113.9	112.8
25	West Virginia	113.2	111.9	112.9	112.7
26	Washington St.	113.2	110.3	113.3	112.3
27	Nebraska	112.6	109.6	112.4	111.5
28	Stanford	113.5	107.4	112.9	111.3
29	Iowa	111.8	109.2	111.6	110.9
30	Notre Dame	112.3	108.7	110.6	110.5
31	Texas	110.0	111.3	109.2	110.2
32	Houston	109.9	108.5	111.5	110.0
33	Penn St.	109.2	110.8	108.4	109.5
34	UCLA	109.9	108.4	109.2	109.2
35	Boise St.	108.1	109.1	109.3	108.8
36	Utah	111.2	105.9	109.3	108.8
37	South Florida	108.6	106.8	109.1	108.2
38	Georgia Tech	109.8	105.6	108.9	108.1
39	Georgia	108.5	107.7	107.8	108.0
40	TCU	107.3	108.8	106.6	107.6
41	Northwestern	109.3	105.2	108.1	107.5
42	Arkansas	109.6	104.9	107.7	107.4
43	Kansas St.	106.6	109.0	106.5	107.4
44	BYU	109.3	103.8	108.9	107.3
45	Mississippi St.	107.8	106.3	106.7	106.9
46	North Carolina St.	107.0	104.0	106.6	105.9
47	Arizona St.	105.8	104.7	104.6	105.1
48	Oregon	105.9	104.1	104.9	105.0
49	Toledo	103.8	103.2	104.5	103.8
50	Wake Forest	104.4	102.0	104.1	103.5
51	Minnesota	104.1	103.1	103.4	103.5
52	Temple	103.4	102.8	103.6	103.3
53	San Diego St.	103.0	101.5	105.0	103.2
54	Indiana	102.6	104.6	102.2	103.1
55	Maryland	102.8	105.1	101.3	103.1
56	Texas Tech	103.8	103.0	102.1	103.0
57	Memphis	103.9	101.3	102.6	102.6
58	Navy	102.8	101.9	102.6	102.5
59	Michigan St.	103.3	102.9	101.1	102.4
60	Syracuse	103.7	100.5	102.3	102.2
61	California	105.1	98.0	102.8	102.0
62	Western Kentucky	102.1	99.3	103.1	101.5
63	Duke	101.4	101.6	100.5	101.2
64	Virginia	101.8	99.5	101.1	100.8
65	Tulsa	99.7	101.8	100.6	100.7
66	Arizona	101.2	99.1	99.7	100.0
67	Vanderbilt	101.4	98.2	100.1	99.9
68	Kentucky	99.1	100.1	98.3	99.2
69	Missouri	99.4	99.0	98.9	99.1
70	Appalachian St.	98.1	98.6	99.9	98.9
71	Iowa St.	98.6	98.1	97.9	98.2
72	Cincinnati	97.9	98.2	98.1	98.1
73	Central Michigan	97.2	98.9	97.8	98.0
74	Boston College	98.3	97.6	97.8	97.9
75	South Carolina	97.2	97.1	96.6	97.0
76	Middle Tennessee	96.2	96.9	96.8	96.6
77	Central Florida	95.6	97.3	96.1	96.3
78	Illinois	97.4	93.9	96.6	96.0
79	New Mexico	94.6	96.9	95.5	95.7
80	Louisiana Tech	94.5	96.3	96.0	95.6
81	Air Force	95.1	96.3	95.1	95.5
82	Connecticut	96.0	94.4	95.8	95.4
83	SMU	94.6	93.9	96.9	95.2
84	Troy	92.8	97.5	94.8	95.1
85	Northern Illinois	93.9	95.3	95.2	94.8
86	Army	90.5	98.7	93.3	94.2
87	Utah St.	93.3	96.0	93.1	94.1
88	Purdue	94.6	92.6	93.5	93.6
89	Oregon St.	95.6	91.1	93.9	93.5
90	Ohio	89.5	96.2	90.0	91.9
91	East Carolina	91.2	93.2	91.3	91.9
92	Southern Mississippi	91.5	92.0	91.9	91.8
93	Georgia Southern	90.5	90.7	92.5	91.3
94	Colorado St.	89.8	91.6	90.7	90.7
95	Rutgers	91.8	89.4	90.4	90.6
96	Akron	87.9	93.4	89.5	90.3
97	Wyoming	89.5	89.8	90.3	89.9
98	Arkansas St.	88.1	90.1	89.8	89.3
99	Eastern Michigan	86.9	89.1	87.3	87.8
100	Old Dominion	86.3	89.7	86.7	87.6
101	UNLV	86.3	89.6	86.6	87.5
102	Ball St.	85.2	87.7	86.3	86.4
103	Tulane	84.7	88.9	85.2	86.3
104	South Alabama	83.5	90.3	84.8	86.2
105	Nevada	85.1	87.5	85.7	86.1
106	Kent St.	85.2	87.2	85.7	86.1
107	Miami (O)	85.0	86.0	86.3	85.8
108	Hawaii	86.1	84.9	85.9	85.6
109	Kansas	84.0	89.5	81.5	85.0
110	Georgia St.	82.7	87.2	84.6	84.8
111	Marshall	82.9	86.3	83.8	84.3
112	UTSA	81.0	88.0	83.4	84.2
113	North Texas	82.4	85.2	83.2	83.6
114	Rice	81.0	87.8	81.2	83.3
115	Massachusetts	80.1	86.4	81.2	82.6
116	Bowling Green	82.2	82.6	82.2	82.3
117	San Jose St.	82.0	81.8	81.3	81.7
118	Idaho	79.3	84.6	80.9	81.6
119	Fresno St.	80.0	83.7	79.7	81.1
120	Florida International	78.7	83.5	78.8	80.3
121	UL-Lafayette	77.5	83.6	79.3	80.2
122	Florida Atlantic	77.0	81.9	80.2	79.7
123	Buffalo	73.1	80.2	73.5	75.6
124	Charlotte	73.5	78.8	74.2	75.5
125	UTEP	72.1	76.7	73.4	74.1
126	New Mexico St.	71.8	74.9	72.7	73.1
127	UL-Monroe	67.4	72.3	67.7	69.1
128	Texas St.	67.3	69.5	68.1	68.3

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	108.6	106.8	109.1	108.2
Temple	103.4	102.8	103.6	103.3
Cincinnati	97.9	98.2	98.1	98.1
Central Florida	95.6	97.3	96.1	96.3
Connecticut	96.0	94.4	95.8	95.4
East Carolina	91.2	93.2	91.3	91.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	109.9	108.5	111.5	110.0
Memphis	103.9	101.3	102.6	102.6
Navy	102.8	101.9	102.6	102.5
Tulsa	99.7	101.8	100.6	100.7
SMU	94.6	93.9	96.9	95.2
Tulane	84.7	88.9	85.2	86.3
AAC Averages	99.0	99.1	99.4	99.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisville	130.0	124.8	130.1	128.3
Clemson	126.6	119.3	125.6	123.8
Florida St.	119.0	112.6	118.0	116.5
North Carolina St.	107.0	104.0	106.6	105.9
Wake Forest	104.4	102.0	104.1	103.5
Syracuse	103.7	100.5	102.3	102.2
Boston College	98.3	97.6	97.8	97.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Virginia Tech	118.9	117.5	119.3	118.6
North Carolina	118.1	111.7	118.0	115.9
Miami	116.6	110.6	116.2	114.5
Pittsburgh	115.2	111.5	114.4	113.7
Georgia Tech	109.8	105.6	108.9	108.1
Duke	101.4	101.6	100.5	101.2
Virginia	101.8	99.5	101.1	100.8
ACC Averages	112.2	108.5	111.6	110.8
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	119.8	118.0	119.4	119.1
Baylor	114.1	114.4	114.7	114.4
Oklahoma St.	113.8	115.1	113.4	114.1
West Virginia	113.2	111.9	112.9	112.7
Texas	110.0	111.3	109.2	110.2
TCU	107.3	108.8	106.6	107.6
Kansas St.	106.6	109.0	106.5	107.4
Texas Tech	103.8	103.0	102.1	103.0
Iowa St.	98.6	98.1	97.9	98.2
Kansas	84.0	89.5	81.5	85.0
Big 12 Averages	107.1	107.9	106.4	107.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Michigan	129.6	127.1	130.1	128.9
Ohio St.	123.0	122.7	123.5	123.1
Penn St.	109.2	110.8	108.4	109.5
Indiana	102.6	104.6	102.2	103.1
Maryland	102.8	105.1	101.3	103.1
Michigan St.	103.3	102.9	101.1	102.4
Rutgers	91.8	89.4	90.4	90.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	115.7	113.7	116.5	115.3
Nebraska	112.6	109.6	112.4	111.5
Iowa	111.8	109.2	111.6	110.9
Northwestern	109.3	105.2	108.1	107.5
Minnesota	104.1	103.1	103.4	103.5
Illinois	97.4	93.9	96.6	96.0
Purdue	94.6	92.6	93.5	93.6
Big Ten Averages	107.7	106.4	107.1	107.1
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	102.1	99.3	103.1	101.5
Middle Tennessee	96.2	96.9	96.8	96.6
Old Dominion	86.3	89.7	86.7	87.6
Marshall	82.9	86.3	83.8	84.3
Florida International	78.7	83.5	78.8	80.3
Florida Atlantic	77.0	81.9	80.2	79.7
Charlotte	73.5	78.8	74.2	75.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	94.5	96.3	96.0	95.6
Southern Mississippi	91.5	92.0	91.9	91.8
UTSA	81.0	88.0	83.4	84.2
North Texas	82.4	85.2	83.2	83.6
Rice	81.0	87.8	81.2	83.3
UTEP	72.1	76.7	73.4	74.1
CUSA Averages	84.6	87.9	85.6	86.0
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	112.3	108.7	110.6	110.5
BYU	109.3	103.8	108.9	107.3
Army	90.5	98.7	93.3	94.2
Massachusetts	80.1	86.4	81.2	82.6
Independents Averages	98.1	99.4	98.5	98.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	89.5	96.2	90.0	91.9
Akron	87.9	93.4	89.5	90.3
Kent St.	85.2	87.2	85.7	86.1
Miami (O)	85.0	86.0	86.3	85.8
Bowling Green	82.2	82.6	82.2	82.3
Buffalo	73.1	80.2	73.5	75.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	112.6	111.5	114.3	112.8
Toledo	103.8	103.2	104.5	103.8
Central Michigan	97.2	98.9	97.8	98.0
Northern Illinois	93.9	95.3	95.2	94.8
Eastern Michigan	86.9	89.1	87.3	87.8
Ball St.	85.2	87.7	86.3	86.4
MAC Averages	90.2	92.6	91.0	91.3
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	108.1	109.1	109.3	108.8
New Mexico	94.6	96.9	95.5	95.7
Air Force	95.1	96.3	95.1	95.5
Utah St.	93.3	96.0	93.1	94.1
Colorado St.	89.8	91.6	90.7	90.7
Wyoming	89.5	89.8	90.3	89.9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	103.0	101.5	105.0	103.2
UNLV	86.3	89.6	86.6	87.5
Nevada	85.1	87.5	85.7	86.1
Hawaii	86.1	84.9	85.9	85.6
San Jose St.	82.0	81.8	81.3	81.7
Fresno St.	80.0	83.7	79.7	81.1
MWC Averages	91.1	92.4	91.5	91.7
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	129.0	121.6	129.1	126.6
Washington St.	113.2	110.3	113.3	112.3
Stanford	113.5	107.4	112.9	111.3
Oregon	105.9	104.1	104.9	105.0
California	105.1	98.0	102.8	102.0
Oregon St.	95.6	91.1	93.9	93.5
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Colorado	117.2	112.7	117.0	115.7
USC	117.2	112.7	114.9	114.9
UCLA	109.9	108.4	109.2	109.2
Utah	111.2	105.9	109.3	108.8
Arizona St.	105.8	104.7	104.6	105.1
Arizona	101.2	99.1	99.7	100.0
Pac-12 Averages	110.4	106.4	109.3	108.7
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	119.0	115.9	118.4	117.8
Florida	114.0	116.3	112.3	114.2
Georgia	108.5	107.7	107.8	108.0
Vanderbilt	101.4	98.2	100.1	99.9
Kentucky	99.1	100.1	98.3	99.2
Missouri	99.4	99.0	98.9	99.1
South Carolina	97.2	97.1	96.6	97.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	135.6	128.8	135.5	133.3
LSU	124.5	119.5	124.1	122.7
Auburn	122.7	120.6	122.7	122.0
Texas A&M	117.3	115.3	117.1	116.6
Ole Miss	115.0	109.5	113.9	112.8
Arkansas	109.6	104.9	107.7	107.4
Mississippi St.	107.8	106.3	106.7	106.9
SEC Averages	112.2	110.0	111.4	111.2
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	98.1	98.6	99.9	98.9
Troy	92.8	97.5	94.8	95.1
Georgia Southern	90.5	90.7	92.5	91.3
Arkansas St.	88.1	90.1	89.8	89.3
South Alabama	83.5	90.3	84.8	86.2
Georgia St.	82.7	87.2	84.6	84.8
Idaho	79.3	84.6	80.9	81.6
UL-Lafayette	77.5	83.6	79.3	80.2
New Mexico St.	71.8	74.9	72.7	73.1
UL-Monroe	67.4	72.3	67.7	69.1
Texas St.	67.3	69.5	68.1	68.3
Sun Belt Averages	81.7	85.4	83.2	83.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	112.2	110.0	111.4	111.2
2	ACC	112.2	108.5	111.6	110.8
3	Pac-12	110.4	106.4	109.3	108.7
4	Big 12	107.1	107.9	106.4	107.2
5	Big Ten	107.7	106.4	107.1	107.1
6	AAC	99.0	99.1	99.4	99.2
7	Independents	98.1	99.4	98.5	98.7
8	MWC	91.1	92.4	91.5	91.7
9	MAC	90.2	92.6	91.0	91.3
10	CUSA	84.6	87.9	85.6	86.0
11	Sun Belt	81.7	85.4	83.2	83.5

 

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Michigan
3	Clemson
4	Louisville
5	Washington
6	Texas A&M
7	Ohio St.
8	Wisconsin
9	Nebraska
10	Western Michigan
11	West Virginia
12	Florida St.
13	Boise St.
14	Tennessee
15	Oklahoma
16	LSU
17	Auburn
18	Colorado
19	Baylor
20	Florida
21	Washington St.
22	Penn St.
23	Utah
24	Virginia Tech
25	USC
26	North Carolina
27	Houston
28	Stanford
29	Toledo
30	Pittsburgh
31	Navy
32	South Florida
33	Arkansas
34	Ole Miss
35	Miami (Fla)
36	Oklahoma St.
37	Appalachian St.
38	Iowa
39	BYU
40	Wake Forest
41	Arizona St.
42	Memphis
43	Northwestern
44	Troy
45	North Carolina St.
46	San Diego St.
47	Temple
48	Georgia Tech
49	Kansas St.
50	Georgia
51	TCU
52	California
53	Minnesota
54	Tulsa
55	Maryland
56	UCLA
57	Western Kentucky
58	Central Florida
59	Kentucky
60	Wyoming
61	Louisiana Tech
62	Texas Tech
63	Indiana
64	Central Michigan
65	Vanderbilt
66	Middle Tennessee
67	Oregon
68	Georgia Southern
69	Texas
70	Syracuse
71	Air Force
72	Eastern Michigan
73	Akron
74	Colorado St.
75	Mississippi St.
76	Duke
77	Southern Miss.
78	South Carolina
79	Cincinnati
80	Arizona
81	Notre Dame
82	Missouri
83	New Mexico
84	SMU
85	Michigan St.
86	Old Dominion
87	Oregon St.
88	Utah St.
89	Ohio
90	Army
91	Connecticut
92	Virginia
93	North Texas
94	Idaho
95	Boston College
96	Illinois
97	Hawaii
98	Tulane
99	East Carolina
100	Arkansas St.
101	Purdue
102	South Alabama
103	Ball St.
104	Rutgers
105	Iowa St.
106	UL-Lafayette
107	Northern Illinois
108	Georgia St.
109	UTSA
110	UNLV
111	Kent St.
112	Marshall
113	Miami (O)
114	Nevada
115	UL-Monroe
116	Bowling Green
117	New Mexico St.
118	Florida Int’l.
119	Charlotte
120	Kansas
121	San Jose St.
122	Massachusetts
123	Texas St.
124	UTEP
125	Rice
126	Fresno St.
127	Buffalo
128	Florida Atlantic

 

This Week’s Games–October 27-29
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Thursday, October 27
Pittsburgh	Virginia Tech	-0.7	-3.0	-1.9
Buffalo	Akron	-12.8	-11.2	-14.0
Toledo	Ohio U	16.8	9.5	17.5
Georgia Southern	Appalachian St.	-4.6	-4.9	-4.4
USC	California	15.1	17.7	15.1
Friday, October 28
South Florida	Navy	8.8	7.9	9.5
Utah St.	San Diego St.	-6.7	-2.5	-8.9
Fresno St.	Air Force	-12.1	-9.6	-12.4
Saturday, October 29
Central Michigan	Kent St.	15.0	14.7	15.1
Houston	Central Florida	17.3	14.2	18.4
East Carolina	Connecticut	-1.8	1.8	-1.5
Georgia Tech	Duke	11.4	7.0	11.4
Virginia	Louisville	-25.2	-22.3	-26.0
Missouri	Kentucky	3.3	1.9	3.6
Iowa St.	Kansas St.	-5.0	-7.9	-5.6
Oklahoma St.	West Virginia	3.6	6.2	3.5
Illinois	Minnesota	-3.7	-5.2	-3.8
Michigan St.	Michigan	-24.3	-22.2	-27.0
Purdue	Penn St.	-11.6	-15.2	-11.9
North Carolina St.	Boston College	11.7	9.4	11.8
Temple	Cincinnati	8.5	7.6	8.5
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	-22.1	-14.4	-19.9
Georgia (N)	Florida	-5.5	-8.6	-4.5
Texas	Baylor	-1.1	-0.1	-2.5
Wake Forest	Army	16.9	6.3	13.8
Notre Dame	Miami (Fla.)	-1.3	0.9	-2.6
Utah	Washington	-14.8	-12.7	-16.8
Indiana	Maryland	2.8	2.5	3.9
TCU	Texas Tech	6.5	8.8	7.5
Ohio St.	Northwestern	16.7	20.5	18.4
Eastern Michigan	Miami (O)	4.9	6.1	4.0
Tulane	SMU	-7.4	-2.5	-9.7
South Alabama	Georgia St.	3.8	6.1	3.2
Oregon	Arizona St.	3.1	2.4	3.3
Wyoming	Boise St.	-15.6	-16.3	-16.0
Louisiana Tech	Rice	16.5	11.5	17.8
Southern Miss.	Marshall	11.6	8.7	11.1
UTSA	North Texas	1.1	5.3	2.7
Florida Int’l.	Middle Tennessee	-14.5	-10.4	-15.0
Arkansas St.	UL-Monroe	23.7	20.8	25.1
Oklahoma	Kansas	38.8	31.5	40.9
Wisconsin	Nebraska	6.1	7.1	7.1
Ole Miss	Auburn	-4.7	-8.1	-5.8
South Carolina	Tennessee	-18.8	-15.8	-18.8
Texas A&M	New Mexico St.	48.5	43.4	47.4
UTEP	Old Dominion	-11.2	-10.0	-10.3
Memphis	Tulsa	7.2	2.5	5.0
Florida St.	Clemson	-4.6	-3.7	-4.6
San Jose St.	UNLV	-1.3	-4.8	-2.3
Oregon St.	Washington St.	-14.6	-16.2	-16.4
Arizona	Stanford	-9.3	-5.3	-10.2
Hawaii	New Mexico	-4.5	-8.0	-5.6

FBS vs. FCS	Week 9
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Massachusetts	Wagner	17
Mississippi St.	Samford	19

 

This Week’s Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	Sou. Miss.
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC	Arizona St.	vs.	San Diego St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	vs.	Arkansas St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Akron	vs.	Ga. Southern
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	La. Tech	vs.	Troy
Miami Beach	AAC	MAC	Houston	vs.	Toledo
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	vs.	W. Kentucky
Poinsettia	MWC	BYU	Air Force	vs.	BYU
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Central Mich.	vs.	Boise St.
Bahamas	AAC/CUSA	MAC/CUSA	Temple	vs.	Eastern Mich.
Armed Forces	Navy	Big 12	Navy	vs.	[Idaho]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	vs.	Appy St.
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	North Texas	vs.	Hawaii
St. Petersburg	AAC	ACC/ND	Tulsa	vs.	Miami (Fla.)
Quick Lane	ACC/ND	Big Ten	{Notre Dame}	vs.	Indiana
Independence	SEC	ACC/ND	{S.Carolina}	vs.	Georgia Tech
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	Maryland	vs.	Middle Tenn.
Military	ACC/ND	AAC	N. Carolina St.	vs.	Central Fla.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	vs.	Utah
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	{Utah St.}	vs.	California
Pinstripe	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Wake Forest	vs.	Iowa
Russell Athletic	ACC/ND	Big 12	Virginia Tech	vs.	Oklahoma St.
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	vs.	USC
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	vs.	Arkansas
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	[Army]	vs.	{Syracuse}
Belk	ACC/ND	SEC	N. Carolina	vs.	Georgia
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma	vs.	Colorado
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	TCU	vs.	LSU
Sun	ACC/ND	Pac-12	Pittsburgh	vs.	Stanford
Arizona	CUSA/SBC	MWC/SBC	Old Dominion	vs.	Wyoming
Music City	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Nebraska	vs.	[Colorado St.]
Orange	ACC/ND	B10/SEC	Louisville	vs.	Baylor
Citrus	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Wisconsin	vs.	Auburn
TaxSlayer	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Florida St.	vs.	Ole Miss
Peach	Semifinal	Semifinal	Michigan	vs.	Texas A&M
Fiesta	Semifinal	Semifinal	Alabama	vs.	Clemson
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Ohio St.	vs.	Florida
Cotton	At-Large	At-Large	Western Mich.	vs.	Washington
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	vs.	Wash. St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	West Virginia	vs.	Tennessee
Championship	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	vs.	Michigan
[Team]	At-Large Selection
{Team}	At-Large Selection of projected 7-Loss Team

The APR Score Rankings

If one or more 5-7 teams are needed to fill vacant bowl slots, they will be filled in order of highest APR score.  For instance, if there are five spots to be filled by 5-7 teams, the highest five 5-7 teams in APR score will automatically earn those spots.  Then, in order of APR score, the teams will choose which bowl bid to accept.  Here is the ranking of the teams.  If there are five spots to be filled, then it could go down to the 40th best APR score or lower, because few teams will actually be 5-7.

APR Scores
1	Duke
2	Northwestern
3	Minnesota
4	Wisconsin
5	Vanderbilt
6	Army
7	Michigan
8	Georgia Tech
9	Air Force
10	North Texas
11	Clemson
12	Stanford
13	Central Florida
14	Utah
15	Auburn
16	Boise St.
17	Navy
18	Illinois
19	Louisville
20	Boston College
21	Nebraska
22	Indiana
23	Alabama
24	Florida
25	Michigan St.
26	Missouri
27	Utah St.
28	Maryland
29	Kansas St.
30	Notre Dame
31	Middle Tennessee
32	Rice
33	Toledo
34	Virginia
35	Washington
36	Syracuse
37	UTEP
38	Rutgers
39	UCLA
40	South Carolina
41	Mississippi St.
42	Temple
43	Ohio St.
44	Hawaii

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

College Football Ratings & Spreads For October 20-22, 2016

Another Hot Seat Burns

Purdue dismissed Darrell Hazell as head coach yesterday, even though the Boilermakers are off to a 3-3 start and have been more competitive in their games this year than in recent seasons. This brings to three the number of coaches that were replaced in the first half of the season (Les Miles–LSU & Ron Turner–Florida International), not counting Art Briles and Baylor.

Firing a coach in mid-season allows a school to officially, but quietly, begin its coaching search ahead of the schools that have already decided to go with a new regime but have yet to make the announcement official. LSU, FIU, and Purdue can now begin reaching out to agents of prospective coaches to feel out the situation. Coach X, who is 5-1 at a Group of 5 School this year would never say he was interested in any job other than the one he currently has, but Coach X’s agent, Johnny Slickster, has already begun to talk to schools about interviewing his client as well as telling them in a general manner what basic details would have to be included in a contract.

Prime Candidates

The three schools with openings for 2017 will no doubt balloon to seven to 12 schools by the time we exchange our Christmas and Hanukkah gifts this year, so who are the prime candidates to see their incomes climb from six to seven figures?

Basically, three types of candidates earn head coaching jobs in college football–head coaches at smaller schools than the one in question, top coordinators from successful schools, and NFL coaches that have recently lost their jobs. Occasionally, a smaller Group of 5 program will hire a coach from FCS ranks, and a former head coach will get another chance to come back into coaching, but most of the available jobs go to one of the three types described above. Today we will look at the head coaches at smaller schools.

In the past, Miami of Ohio was called “The Cradle of Coaches.” This MAC program produced a Hall of Fame class in its own. Among the legends that coached at the Oxford, Ohio, school were Paul Brown, Sid Gillman, Woody Hayes, Bo Schembechler, Ara Parseghian, Weeb Ewbank, Sean Payton, John Harbaugh, Jim Tressel, Bill Mallory, John Pont, and Colonel Red Blaik.

While the Red Hawks are not producing legends any more, their conference has become a breeding grounds for Power 5 teams. It should be no different this year, as Western Michigan’s P.J. Fleck could be the top candidate for multiple jobs. Fleck has stated that he believes too many coaches fail to see how good they have it where they currently are and make a mistake moving up. Other than Al McGuire, who stayed at Marquette for years after being offered multiple jobs every season, there are not too many American males that have turned down the doubling or tripling of their salary to remain in a smaller job. Kalamazoo, Michigan, is a nice northern town, but places like Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Austin, Texas, or Los Angeles, are very livable too, especially when they come with four million dollar contracts.

Jason Candle at Toledo, John Bonamego at Central Michigan, and Chris Creighton at Eastern Michigan could all be on the radar as well. Creighton has maneuvered the EMU into position to go to a bowl this year, and the Eagles have only been bowling one time, back in 1987.

The Sun Belt Conference has chiefly supplied coaches from Arkansas State in recent years, and the guys they sent on to bigger places have done quite well, including Gus Malzahn, Hugh Freeze, and Bryan Harsin. It’s time to spread the wealth of wizards to other locations, and there are some prime candidates this year. Scott Satterfield at Appalachian State could get some feelers. Troy’s Neal Brown will draw interest, and Idaho’s Paul Petrino will be on some schools’ lists, especially since his program will drop to FCS in two years.

In Conference USA, Jeff Brohm is a hot commodity at the present, but there are other potential candidates in this league. Marshall’s Doc Holliday may only have an interest in one other job, which is not about to become open any time soon, but his recruiting ability could earn him a look at Purdue. Bobby Wilder from Old Dominion could be an option for a larger school, while North Texas’s Seth Littrell is probably a couple years away from becoming a hot commodity.

In the Mountain West, Tony Sanchez is a Las Vegas man, so he may not be ready to leave UNLV after two years. The Rebels have not completely turned the corner, but a sneaky bowl-eligible season when they were picked to finish near the bottom could put Sanchez on some radar screens. The coach that appears to be a rising star from the MWC is Wyoming’s Craig Bohl.  Bohl built North Dakota State into the Alabama of the FCS, and he could get some offers from the Big 12, Pac-12, and even Big Ten.
Then, there is the American Athletic Conference, where Houston’s Tom Herman could be the leading candidate at multiple big-time programs. Herman could stay in Houston if the Cougars were told they were going to be selected by the Big 12, but at this point in time, it is starting to look like the Big 12 will stay as they are. South Florida’s Willie Taggart and Temple’s Matt Rhule should get opportunities to talk to bigger schools.

There are three other Group of 5 coaches that could draw specialty interest if certain jobs became available. Navy’s Ken Niumatalolo, Tulane’s Willie Fritz, and Army’s Jeff Monken may not get the opportunity to interview at a big-time state school, because these three coaches are triple option coaches. There are not many schools in the Power 5 Conferences that would consider going to the archaic system of running the ball 85% of the time, but a place like Purdue, Vanderbilt, or Kansas might be willing to try it out. You cannot ask for too much more from Paul Johnson, who has guided Georgia Tech to seven bowls in eight years, including a top 10 finish and Orange Bowl win.

We will add two more men that could probably go to a Power 5 team and win, but that we feel will not get the opportunity to do so. Akron’s Terry Bowden and New Mexico’s Bob Davie once coached at big-time programs. Bowden led Auburn to multiple SEC West championships, while Davie took over for Lou Holtz at Notre Dame.

How Good is Bama

We frequently get asked by people that know us to compare a team with team’s from the past. Recently, an Alabama fan asked us how good this Tide team was compared to those from the past. He was only asking to compare to past Tide teams, but we like to go one further. How good is this Alabama team among all the teams in college football history?

The obvious answer is that the 2016 Alabama team would beat the 1962 Green Bay Packers or the 1970 Pro Bowl teams, just like today’s Cleveland Cavaliers would run the Boston Celtics of the Red Auerbach era out of the gym, and many high school sprinters of today could win the Gold Medal in the 1896 Olympics.

However, we could say it another way. LeBron James might only have grown to 6 foot 4 had he lived 50 years ago. Compared to Elgin Baylor or Connie Hawkins, he might have been a bench-warmer back then. Had Jesse Owens been born in 1994, he might make Usain Bolt look slow. You have to compare talent to its historical time frame.

So, with the above caveat, where does Alabama currently rank among all-time teams? We can use our PiRate formula to determine how they rank among teams since about 1970. The formula has been tweaked through the years, but we have kept records to know how to compare a rating from 1979 with a rating from today. To be considered great, a team in our PiRate and Bias ratings needs to top 135.0, and in the Mean rating, 130.0. Alabama tops 135 in the PiRate and Bias, but they are a tad under 130 in the Mean. 135 means that a team is 5 touchdowns better than the average team.

Very few teams have finished the season five touchdowns better than the average team. Since 1970, that group is limited to:

1971–Nebraska
1972–Southern Cal
1974–Oklahoma
1995–Nebraska
2001–Miami
2004–Southern Cal
2005–Texas

The 1995 Nebraska team remains the top ever in our PiRate Ratings’ history. USC in 1972 and Nebraska in 1971 are close behind in a tie for second (The 1971 Oklahoma team almost made this list).

There are no doubt other teams prior to our ratings that are as good or even better than the teams we have listed. Army in 1944 and 1945 was much like an all-star team. Notre Dame between 1946 and 1949 stocked the NFL with more than 30 players. Oklahoma once won 47 games in a row in the middle 1950’s and went 107-8-2 over an 11-year span.

If the season ended today, this Alabama team would rank 6th all-time in our PiRate Ratings, behind 1995 Nebraska, 1972 USC, 1971 Nebraska, 2001 Miami, and 2004 USC. Check below to see how we rate the Tide against unbeaten Texas A&M this week.

PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	135.6	128.6	135.5	133.2
2	Michigan	129.3	126.8	129.8	128.6
3	Washington	128.5	121.1	128.6	126.1
4	Ohio St.	125.6	124.9	126.5	125.7
5	Louisville	126.5	121.3	126.4	124.7
6	Clemson	126.3	119.0	125.3	123.5
7	LSU	123.8	119.1	123.2	122.0
8	Oklahoma	120.2	118.3	120.1	119.5
9	Auburn	118.5	116.6	118.7	117.9
10	Tennessee	118.7	115.6	118.1	117.5
11	Virginia Tech	117.2	116.4	117.5	117.0
12	Texas A&M	117.3	115.5	117.1	116.6
13	Miami	118.8	112.2	118.5	116.5
14	Florida St.	118.7	112.3	117.7	116.2
15	Colorado	116.5	112.3	116.8	115.2
16	Wisconsin	115.3	113.4	116.0	114.9
17	USC	116.9	112.4	114.6	114.6
18	North Carolina	116.6	110.1	116.4	114.4
19	Oklahoma St.	114.1	115.1	113.9	114.4
20	Houston	114.3	112.6	116.1	114.3
21	Baylor	113.8	114.1	114.4	114.1
22	Ole Miss	116.2	110.4	115.3	114.0
23	Florida	113.7	116.0	112.0	113.9
24	Pittsburgh	114.9	111.2	114.1	113.4
25	Western Michigan	113.1	111.7	115.0	113.3
26	Washington St.	113.2	110.1	113.3	112.2
27	Nebraska	113.0	109.9	113.0	112.0
28	Stanford	114.2	107.8	113.1	111.7
29	Iowa	112.2	109.5	112.1	111.3
30	Texas	110.9	112.1	110.2	111.1
31	UCLA	111.6	110.2	111.1	111.0
32	West Virginia	111.4	110.1	110.9	110.8
33	South Florida	111.3	109.0	112.0	110.8
34	Arkansas	112.8	107.9	110.7	110.5
35	Notre Dame	112.0	108.4	110.3	110.2
36	TCU	109.6	111.1	109.1	109.9
37	North Carolina St.	110.2	107.2	110.0	109.1
38	Boise St.	108.1	109.3	109.4	108.9
39	Georgia Tech	109.5	105.3	108.6	107.8
40	Mississippi St.	108.8	106.7	107.8	107.8
41	Georgia	108.2	107.4	107.5	107.7
42	Utah	110.1	104.7	108.0	107.6
43	Penn St.	107.1	109.1	105.9	107.4
44	BYU	109.3	103.6	108.8	107.2
45	Northwestern	109.2	104.5	107.9	107.2
46	Kansas St.	106.4	108.9	106.2	107.2
47	Minnesota	105.7	104.5	105.2	105.1
48	Arizona St.	105.8	104.9	104.6	105.1
49	Oregon	105.9	104.3	104.9	105.0
50	Michigan St.	105.4	104.4	103.3	104.4
51	Memphis	105.8	102.4	104.6	104.3
52	Indiana	103.0	105.6	102.7	103.8
53	Toledo	103.4	102.8	104.0	103.4
54	Wake Forest	104.1	101.7	103.8	103.2
55	Texas Tech	103.4	102.7	101.4	102.5
56	Virginia	103.0	100.8	102.4	102.1
57	California	105.1	97.8	102.8	101.9
58	Maryland	101.4	104.3	99.5	101.7
59	Syracuse	103.1	99.8	101.5	101.5
60	San Diego St.	101.2	99.9	103.3	101.5
61	Missouri	101.6	100.9	101.1	101.2
62	Duke	101.1	101.3	100.2	100.9
63	Navy	100.9	100.8	100.6	100.8
64	Temple	100.7	100.6	100.7	100.7
65	Vanderbilt	101.6	98.4	100.3	100.1
66	Tulsa	99.1	101.3	99.9	100.1
67	Arizona	100.9	98.8	99.4	99.7
68	South Carolina	99.5	99.0	98.9	99.2
69	Appalachian St.	98.4	98.6	100.3	99.1
70	Boston College	99.2	98.6	98.9	98.9
71	Western Kentucky	99.1	96.2	99.9	98.4
72	Central Michigan	97.6	99.3	98.3	98.4
73	Air Force	97.7	98.9	97.9	98.2
74	Kentucky	97.8	99.4	96.9	98.0
75	Iowa St.	98.3	97.8	97.6	97.9
76	Cincinnati	97.7	98.0	97.8	97.9
77	Army	93.3	101.7	96.3	97.1
78	Connecticut	97.6	95.4	97.5	96.9
79	Illinois	97.4	93.9	96.6	96.0
80	Troy	92.8	97.4	94.8	95.0
81	Middle Tennessee	94.5	95.5	95.1	95.0
82	Central Florida	94.0	96.3	94.4	94.9
83	Louisiana Tech	93.9	95.3	95.4	94.9
84	Utah St.	93.2	95.7	92.9	93.9
85	Oregon St.	95.6	91.1	93.9	93.5
86	Northern Illinois	92.7	94.0	93.8	93.5
87	New Mexico	92.2	94.6	92.9	93.3
88	Purdue	94.2	92.3	92.9	93.1
89	East Carolina	91.9	93.9	92.1	92.6
90	Georgia Southern	91.6	91.5	93.8	92.3
91	Ohio	89.4	96.4	89.8	91.9
92	SMU	91.2	90.8	93.3	91.8
93	Southern Mississippi	91.3	91.8	91.7	91.6
94	Old Dominion	89.0	92.5	89.6	90.4
95	UNLV	88.5	91.8	88.8	89.7
96	Arkansas St.	87.9	89.9	89.6	89.1
97	Wyoming	88.9	88.9	89.5	89.1
98	Akron	86.6	92.6	88.1	89.1
99	Rutgers	90.2	88.0	88.6	89.0
100	Colorado St.	87.3	89.1	88.2	88.2
101	Ball St.	86.5	88.5	87.7	87.6
102	Marshall	85.8	88.9	87.0	87.2
103	Nevada	85.7	88.4	86.5	86.9
104	Tulane	85.3	89.4	85.9	86.9
105	South Alabama	83.5	90.4	84.8	86.2
106	Kent St.	85.3	87.0	85.9	86.1
107	Eastern Michigan	85.1	87.6	85.3	86.0
108	UTSA	82.6	89.6	85.3	85.9
109	Kansas	83.7	89.5	81.0	84.8
110	Georgia St.	82.5	87.0	84.4	84.6
111	Bowling Green	84.3	84.4	84.2	84.3
112	Miami (O)	83.4	84.7	84.8	84.3
113	San Jose St.	84.3	83.9	83.5	83.9
114	Hawaii	84.0	82.8	83.6	83.5
115	Rice	80.7	87.5	80.9	83.0
116	Fresno St.	80.4	84.3	80.2	81.6
117	Idaho	79.0	84.6	80.5	81.4
118	Florida International	79.3	84.5	79.4	81.1
119	Massachusetts	78.3	85.0	79.4	80.9
120	North Texas	79.1	81.7	79.7	80.2
121	Florida Atlantic	76.8	81.7	80.0	79.5
122	UL-Lafayette	76.0	82.8	77.6	78.8
123	Buffalo	74.8	82.0	75.4	77.4
124	Charlotte	71.1	76.7	71.5	73.1
125	UTEP	70.5	75.1	71.5	72.4
126	New Mexico St.	70.7	74.1	71.4	72.1
127	UL-Monroe	69.8	74.6	70.3	71.6
128	Texas St.	69.1	70.6	70.1	69.9

 

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	111.3	109.0	112.0	110.8
Temple	100.7	100.6	100.7	100.7
Cincinnati	97.7	98.0	97.8	97.9
Connecticut	97.6	95.4	97.5	96.9
Central Florida	94.0	96.3	94.4	94.9
East Carolina	91.9	93.9	92.1	92.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	114.3	112.6	116.1	114.3
Memphis	105.8	102.4	104.6	104.3
Navy	100.9	100.8	100.6	100.8
Tulsa	99.1	101.3	99.9	100.1
SMU	91.2	90.8	93.3	91.8
Tulane	85.3	89.4	85.9	86.9
AAC Averages	99.2	99.3	99.6	99.3
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisville	126.5	121.3	126.4	124.7
Clemson	126.3	119.0	125.3	123.5
Florida St.	118.7	112.3	117.7	116.2
North Carolina St.	110.2	107.2	110.0	109.1
Wake Forest	104.1	101.7	103.8	103.2
Syracuse	103.1	99.8	101.5	101.5
Boston College	99.2	98.6	98.9	98.9
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Virginia Tech	117.2	116.4	117.5	117.0
Miami	118.8	112.2	118.5	116.5
North Carolina	116.6	110.1	116.4	114.4
Pittsburgh	114.9	111.2	114.1	113.4
Georgia Tech	109.5	105.3	108.6	107.8
Virginia	103.0	100.8	102.4	102.1
Duke	101.1	101.3	100.2	100.9
ACC Averages	112.1	108.4	111.5	110.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	120.2	118.3	120.1	119.5
Oklahoma St.	114.1	115.1	113.9	114.4
Baylor	113.8	114.1	114.4	114.1
Texas	110.9	112.1	110.2	111.1
West Virginia	111.4	110.1	110.9	110.8
TCU	109.6	111.1	109.1	109.9
Kansas St.	106.4	108.9	106.2	107.2
Texas Tech	103.4	102.7	101.4	102.5
Iowa St.	98.3	97.8	97.6	97.9
Kansas	83.7	89.5	81.0	84.8
Big 12 Averages	107.2	108.0	106.5	107.2
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Michigan	129.3	126.8	129.8	128.6
Ohio St.	125.6	124.9	126.5	125.7
Penn St.	107.1	109.1	105.9	107.4
Michigan St.	105.4	104.4	103.3	104.4
Indiana	103.0	105.6	102.7	103.8
Maryland	101.4	104.3	99.5	101.7
Rutgers	90.2	88.0	88.6	89.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	115.3	113.4	116.0	114.9
Nebraska	113.0	109.9	113.0	112.0
Iowa	112.2	109.5	112.1	111.3
Northwestern	109.2	104.5	107.9	107.2
Minnesota	105.7	104.5	105.2	105.1
Illinois	97.4	93.9	96.6	96.0
Purdue	94.2	92.3	92.9	93.1
Big Ten Averages	107.8	106.5	107.1	107.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	99.1	96.2	99.9	98.4
Middle Tennessee	94.5	95.5	95.1	95.0
Old Dominion	89.0	92.5	89.6	90.4
Marshall	85.8	88.9	87.0	87.2
Florida International	79.3	84.5	79.4	81.1
Florida Atlantic	76.8	81.7	80.0	79.5
Charlotte	71.1	76.7	71.5	73.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	93.9	95.3	95.4	94.9
Southern Mississippi	91.3	91.8	91.7	91.6
UTSA	82.6	89.6	85.3	85.9
Rice	80.7	87.5	80.9	83.0
North Texas	79.1	81.7	79.7	80.2
UTEP	70.5	75.1	71.5	72.4
CUSA Averages	84.1	87.5	85.2	85.6
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	112.0	108.4	110.3	110.2
BYU	109.3	103.6	108.8	107.2
Army	93.3	101.7	96.3	97.1
Massachusetts	78.3	85.0	79.4	80.9
Indep. Averages	98.2	99.7	98.7	98.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	89.4	96.4	89.8	91.9
Akron	86.6	92.6	88.1	89.1
Kent St.	85.3	87.0	85.9	86.1
Bowling Green	84.3	84.4	84.2	84.3
Miami (O)	83.4	84.7	84.8	84.3
Buffalo	74.8	82.0	75.4	77.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	113.1	111.7	115.0	113.3
Toledo	103.4	102.8	104.0	103.4
Central Michigan	97.6	99.3	98.3	98.4
Northern Illinois	92.7	94.0	93.8	93.5
Ball St.	86.5	88.5	87.7	87.6
Eastern Michigan	85.1	87.6	85.3	86.0
MAC Averages	90.2	92.6	91.0	91.3
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	108.1	109.3	109.4	108.9
Air Force	97.7	98.9	97.9	98.2
Utah St.	93.2	95.7	92.9	93.9
New Mexico	92.2	94.6	92.9	93.3
Wyoming	88.9	88.9	89.5	89.1
Colorado St.	87.3	89.1	88.2	88.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	101.2	99.9	103.3	101.5
UNLV	88.5	91.8	88.8	89.7
Nevada	85.7	88.4	86.5	86.9
San Jose St.	84.3	83.9	83.5	83.9
Hawaii	84.0	82.8	83.6	83.5
Fresno St.	80.4	84.3	80.2	81.6
MWC Averages	91.0	92.3	91.4	91.6
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	128.5	121.1	128.6	126.1
Washington St.	113.2	110.1	113.3	112.2
Stanford	114.2	107.8	113.1	111.7
Oregon	105.9	104.3	104.9	105.0
California	105.1	97.8	102.8	101.9
Oregon St.	95.6	91.1	93.9	93.5
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Colorado	116.5	112.3	116.8	115.2
USC	116.9	112.4	114.6	114.6
UCLA	111.6	110.2	111.1	111.0
Utah	110.1	104.7	108.0	107.6
Arizona St.	105.8	104.9	104.6	105.1
Arizona	100.9	98.8	99.4	99.7
Pac-12 Averages	110.4	106.3	109.3	108.6
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	118.7	115.6	118.1	117.5
Florida	113.7	116.0	112.0	113.9
Georgia	108.2	107.4	107.5	107.7
Missouri	101.6	100.9	101.1	101.2
Vanderbilt	101.6	98.4	100.3	100.1
South Carolina	99.5	99.0	98.9	99.2
Kentucky	97.8	99.4	96.9	98.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	135.6	128.6	135.5	133.2
LSU	123.8	119.1	123.2	122.0
Auburn	118.5	116.6	118.7	117.9
Texas A&M	117.3	115.5	117.1	116.6
Ole Miss	116.2	110.4	115.3	114.0
Arkansas	112.8	107.9	110.7	110.5
Mississippi St.	108.8	106.7	107.8	107.8
SEC Averages	112.4	110.1	111.7	111.4
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	98.4	98.6	100.3	99.1
Troy	92.8	97.4	94.8	95.0
Georgia Southern	91.6	91.5	93.8	92.3
Arkansas St.	87.9	89.9	89.6	89.1
South Alabama	83.5	90.4	84.8	86.2
Georgia St.	82.5	87.0	84.4	84.6
Idaho	79.0	84.6	80.5	81.4
UL-Lafayette	76.0	82.8	77.6	78.8
New Mexico St.	70.7	74.1	71.4	72.1
UL-Monroe	69.8	74.6	70.3	71.6
Texas St.	69.1	70.6	70.1	69.9
Sun Belt Averages	81.9	85.6	83.4	83.7

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	112.4	110.1	111.7	111.4
2	ACC	112.1	108.4	111.5	110.7
3	Pac-12	110.4	106.3	109.3	108.6
4	Big 12	107.2	108.0	106.5	107.2
5	Big Ten	107.8	106.5	107.1	107.2
6	AAC	99.2	99.3	99.6	99.3
7	Independents	98.2	99.7	98.7	98.9
8	MWC	91.0	92.3	91.4	91.6
9	MAC	90.2	92.6	91.0	91.3
10	CUSA	84.1	87.5	85.2	85.6
11	Sun Belt	81.9	85.6	83.4	83.7

 

This Week’s Spreads

This Week’s Games–October 20-22
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Thursday, October 20
Virginia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	1.4	7.2	2.0
South Alabama	Troy	-7.3	-5.0	-8.0
Boise St.	BYU	1.8	8.7	3.6
Friday, October 21
Temple	South Florida	-7.6	-5.4	-8.3
San Diego St.	San Jose St.	19.9	19.0	22.8
California	Oregon	2.2	-3.5	0.9
Saturday, October 22
Army	North Texas	17.2	23.0	19.6
South Carolina	Massachusetts	24.2	17.0	22.5
Connecticut	Central Florida	6.6	2.1	6.1
Toledo	Central Michigan	8.8	6.5	8.7
Bowling Green	Miami (O)	2.9	1.7	1.4
Northwestern	Indiana	8.7	1.4	7.7
Iowa	Wisconsin	-0.1	-0.9	-0.9
Louisville	North Carolina St.	19.3	17.1	19.4
Kansas	Oklahoma St.	-27.4	-22.6	-29.9
Kansas St.	Texas	-1.5	-0.2	-1.0
Minnesota	Rutgers	18.5	19.5	19.6
Boston College	Syracuse	-0.9	1.8	0.4
Kent St.	Ohio U	-2.1	-7.4	-1.9
Air Force	Hawaii	17.2	19.6	17.8
Ball St.	Akron	2.9	-1.1	2.6
Stanford	Colorado	0.7	-1.5	-0.7
Virginia	North Carolina	-10.6	-6.3	-11.0
Navy	Memphis	-1.9	1.4	-1.0
Michigan	Illinois	34.9	35.9	36.2
Nebraska	Purdue	21.8	20.6	23.1
West Virginia	TCU	4.8	2.0	4.8
Appalachian St.	Idaho	22.9	17.5	23.3
Northern Illinois	Buffalo	20.9	15.0	21.4
Alabama	Texas A&M	21.3	16.1	21.4
Western Michigan	Eastern Michigan	30.0	26.1	32.7
Tulsa	Tulane	16.8	14.9	17.0
UCLA	Utah	4.5	8.5	6.1
Missouri	Middle Tennessee	10.1	8.4	9.0
UNLV	Colorado St.	4.2	5.7	3.6
Marshall	Charlotte	17.7	13.4	18.5
Auburn	Arkansas	8.7	11.7	11.0
Washington	Oregon St.	35.9	33.0	37.7
Florida Int’l.	Louisiana Tech	-11.6	-7.4	-13.0
Western Kentucky	Old Dominion	13.1	6.7	13.3
UTSA	UTEP	14.6	17.0	16.3
Cincinnati	East Carolina	8.8	7.1	8.7
SMU	Houston	-20.9	-19.3	-20.3
Texas St.	UL-Lafayette	-4.4	-9.7	-5.0
Maryland	Michigan St.	-1.0	2.9	-0.8
Kentucky	Mississippi St.	-8.0	-4.3	-7.9
New Mexico St.	Georgia Southern	-17.9	-14.4	-19.4
Penn St.	Ohio St.	-15.5	-12.8	-17.6
Texas Tech	Oklahoma	-13.8	-12.6	-15.7
LSU	Ole Miss	9.1	11.2	10.4
New Mexico	UL-Monroe	25.4	23.0	25.6
Arizona St.	Washington St.	-4.4	-2.2	-5.7
Utah St.	Fresno St.	15.8	14.4	15.7
Nevada	Wyoming	-0.2	2.5	-0.1

 

FBS vs. FCS	Week 8
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Georgia St.	UT-Martin	15
Rice	Prairie View	14
Vanderbilt	Tennessee St.	25

Bowl Projections

This week, we project 78 teams to be bowl eligible, necessitating two 7-loss teams falling into bowl games.  A 6-7 Hawaii team trumps all other 7-loss teams.

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	Sou. Miss.
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC	Utah	vs.	Boise St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	vs.	Ga. Southern
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Akron	vs.	S. Alabama
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Old Dominion	vs.	Troy
Miami Beach	AAC	MAC	Tulsa	vs.	Central Mich.
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Houston	vs.	Western Ky.
Poinsettia	MWC	BYU	Air Force	vs.	BYU
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Mich.	vs.	Wyoming
Bahamas	AAC/CUSA	MAC/CUSA	Memphis	vs.	Toledo
Armed Forces	Navy	Big 12	Navy	vs.	[Idaho]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	vs.	Appy St.
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Middle Tenn.	vs.	{Hawaii}
St. Petersburg	AAC	ACC/ND	Temple	vs.	Miami (Fla.)
Quick Lane	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Georgia Tech	vs.	Indiana
Independence	SEC	ACC/ND	{Boston Coll.}	vs.	[Florida Int’l.]
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	Maryland	vs.	North Texas
Military	ACC/ND	AAC	N. Carolina St.	vs.	Central Fla.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	vs.	Arizona St.
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	[UNLV]	vs.	California
Pinstripe	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	vs.	Minnesota
Russell Athletic	ACC/ND	Big 12	Florida St.	vs.	TCU
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	vs.	Wash. St.
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Kansas St.	vs.	Ole Miss
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	[Arkansas St.]	vs.	[Ball St.]
Belk	ACC/ND	SEC	Wake Forest	vs.	Georgia
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma	vs.	USC
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	vs.	LSU
Sun	ACC/ND	Pac-12	N. Carolina	vs.	Stanford
Arizona	CUSA/SBC	MWC/SBC	La. Tech	vs.	San Diego St.
Music City	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Northwestern	vs.	[Army]
Orange	ACC/ND	B10/SEC	Clemson	vs.	Tennessee
Citrus	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Wisconsin	vs.	Arkansas
TaxSlayer	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Virginia Tech	vs.	Auburn
Peach	Semifinal	Semifinal	Ohio St.	vs.	Washington
Fiesta	Semifinal	Semifinal	Alabama	vs.	West Virginia
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Nebraska	vs.	Florida
Cotton	At-Large	At-Large	Louisville	vs.	Western Mich.
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	vs.	Colorado
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	vs.	Texas A&M
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	vs.	Ohio St.
[Team]	At-Large Selection
{Team}	At-Large Selection of projected 7-Loss Team

 

 

 

College Football Ratings & Spreads For October 5-8, 2016

5-7 Bowl Teams Could Increase This Year

Last year, Minnesota, Nebraska, and San Jose State finished with 5-7 regular season records but received bowl bids when only 77 FBS teams were bowl eligible at the end of the season.  These three schools held the three highest Academic Progress Rate (APR) Scores of the teams finishing 5-7.  As luck would have it, all three schools won their bowl games.

This year, the number of teams failing to reach 6-6 or better records could be fewer than last year’s 77.  It could be as low as 71 or 72, meaning there could be bowls where both teams are 5-7, and there could be bowls that have to invite teams with fanbases so small, they could arrive at the bowl in a bus.

The logical reply is that there are too many bowls, and this is quite obvious to all with half a brain.  The actual reply is that these bowls exist to make money for the sponsors, or at least to attempt to make money for the sponsors (advertising plays a major part in making money for a corporation).

The intelligent thing to do would be to expand the playoffs to eight teams, and use seven bowls to play these games.  Then, cap the number of bowls so that there can be no more than 40 in a single season.  With seven of the 40 being used for the Playoffs, and with eight teams qualifying for the Playoffs, 66 additional teams would receive bowl bids, removing the bottom six of the current 80 without a bowl.  In most years, there should be 66 bowl eligible teams after the Playoff spots had been awarded.

Best of all, with an expansion to eight Playoff teams, all five Power 5 Conference Champions could be guaranteed an automatic spot in the Playoffs.  It would leave room for three at-large teams with the top Group of 5 team getting one of those three bids.

With a need for up to six to eight 5-7 teams to fill bowl spots this year, the APR scores could go quite low, because maybe a dozen schools will finish 5-7.  Let’s take a look at the possible contenders for 5-7 bowl invitations.

Power 5 Leagues

Atlantic Coast Conference

Boston College, Duke, North Carolina St., and Virginia are battling it out for bowl eligibility, and Wake Forest and Georgia Tech could fall back into this pack.  Syracuse is on the outside, looking in, but the Orangemen cannot be eliminated, as Dino Babers creates major headaches for defensive coordinators.

The ACC should have 10 Bowl Eligible participants, counting Notre Dame as one of the 10.  Clemson is an odds-on team to make the Playoffs, while Louisville should earn a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  Miami, North Carolina, or Virginia Tech could sneak in as a third conference member playing in a NY6 bowl, and the league has 10 bowl allotments to fill.  This would leave two bowls without ACC bowl eligible teams, likely the Quick Lane and St. Petersburg Bowls.  The ACC voted in the Spring to require 7-5 records for bowl eligibility, but this is just a ceremonial rule until the rest of the FBS follows suit.  There will be 6-6 teams in this league playing in bowls.

Big 12

Texas now appears headed to a probable 5-7 record, and Charles Strong will not survive such a performance in Austin.  Kansas State and Texas Tech are most likely going to be bowl eligible, while Iowa State and Kansas are sure not to be.  That leaves seven bowl eligible teams.  The league most likely will be out in the cold in the Playoff race, as Oklahoma won’t get in with two wins, and neither Baylor nor West Virginia do not look like 12-0 teams.

However, it is possible and actually probable that the number two team in this league will end up in the Cotton Bowl, as one of the NY6 selections.  This means seven bowl eligible teams will come up one short for the Big 12’s seven bowl bids.  The Armed Forces Bowl would be the odd-bowl out.

Big Ten

The Big Ten may not be as strong overall as the SEC, but the top half surely is right there at the top.  Ohio State, Michigan, and Nebraska remain undefeated overall, as some expected, but Maryland is now 4-0 under first year coach D.J. Durkin, the former assistant to Jim Harbaugh and before that Urban Meyer.  Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Michigan State figure to become bowl eligible, while Iowa, Illinois, and Northwestern will compete for bowl eligibility.  Looking at the schedules, it is our current opinion that Iowa and Northwestern will finish 5-7, while Illinois loses at least eight games.

The Ohio State-Michigan winner is an odds-on favorite to claim the number one or number two overall seed in the Playoffs after disposing of the West Division champion in the Big Ten Championship Game.  The loser of this game should head to Pasadena, while the third best team in the league competes with the third best ACC team for the final NY6 Bowl spot.

We see nine league teams gaining bowl eligibility, and for now, we are going with just two making NY6 appearances.  This would require 10 bowl eligible teams, so the Heart of Dallas Bowl would be forced to find a replacement.

Pac-12

This is where there could be a lot of interesting happenings.  Who thought that Oregon might not be bowl eligible this season?  The Ducks have the look of 5-7.  Washington State, California, Arizona, and the UCLA-USC loser will contend for the final bowl spots, with three of the four probably gaining bowl eligiblity.  At the moment, we have Arizona as the odd team out.

The key in the Pac-12 is Washington.  Can the Huskies run the table, win the Pac-12 Championship Game, and make the Playoffs at 13-0?  The PiRates believe this league is too tough to win out on the road, and UW has road games remaining against Oregon, Utah, Cal, and Washington St.  It is our belief that the Huskies will go 12-1 and miss out on the Playoffs if Houston runs the table.

Because of this, UW would then play in the Rose Bowl.  Due to the parity, we do not foresee a second Pac-12 team receving a NY6 Bowl bid, and the league only has seven bowl tie-ins.  With nine probably bowl eligible teams, two of them would be shipped to other bowls as at-large invitees.  Not to worry, because there will be ample spots available and a team like Cal or Washington State would be at the top of the priority list.

SEC

Assuming Alabama continues to add to their dynasty, put the Crimson Tide in the Playoffs as one of the top two seeds.  The winner of this week’s Texas A&M-Tennessee game could finish with 11 wins and definitely receive the Sugar Bowl bid, while the loser could receive the Orange Bowl bid.

Now, look at the bottom.  In the East, South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt, and in the West, Mississippi State will all contend for 5-7 records.  One of these five should be exactly 5-7, and there is a strong possibility that one of the 5-7 teams will earn a bowl bid.

Considering just bowl eligible teams, the SEC is looking at nine getting to 6-6 or better.  When you remove the NY6 invitees, it leaves six schools for the remaining nine bowls, so the Independence, Birmingham, and Music City Bowls are likely to invite at-large teams.

Group of 5 Leagues

AAC

Will Houston run the table, including a win over Louisville?  If so, the Cougars stand a 50-50 chance of making the Playoffs.  Remember, that game with the Cardinals is in Houston.  Houston is virtually guaranteed at least a NY6 bid to the Cotton Bowl if they do not make the Playoffs, so the AAC will need nine bowl eligible teams to satisfy its bowl allotments.

Our crystal ball says that seven AAC teams will become bowl eligible, so there will be two more bowl openings for at-large invitees.  Since this league does not prioritize their bowls, and only Navy is really tied to one bowl, it is a pure guess to select the unfortunate bowls that will have to find replacement teams.

As for 5-7 possibles, it would not surprise us if UConn finishes with that record.  Cincinnati could fall into that category as well.  We had Central Florida in that boat last week, but we now believe UCF will get to 6-6.

CUSA

Conference USA is out of any NY6 consideration this year, so it is a cut and dry six bowl bids with a possible seventh with a secondary allotment at the Independence Bowl.  It looks like six schools will be bowl eligible, so once again the Independence Bowl sponsors will be burning the Midnight oil trying to find teams.

MAC

In past years, the Mid-American Conference has benefited from the lack of bowl eligible teams elsewhere and sent one or two extra teams to bowls.  We see more of the same this year, as the league has five bowl tie-ins and it looks like seven teams will be bowl eligible.

It is a long shot, but Western Michigan could sneak into the Cotton Bowl if the Broncos run the table and Houston and Boise State both lose a game.  For now, we say WMU wins the MAC with a 12-1 record and possibly 13-0.  At 13-0, some back room deals could be made to take the Broncos out of a MAC bowl and pair them up with a possible undefeated team from another Group of 5 league.

Pay close attention to the Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois game in Mid-November.  The winner is likely to squeeze in as the seventh bowl eligible team in the league.  If EMU can win this game, it would be the first time the Eagles make a bowl since 1987.

MWC

San Diego State’s losing to South Alabama hurt Boise State’s chances to pad a resume in the event that Houston loses a game this year.  The Broncos could go 13-0 and not make a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  They still must get past Air Force, and the Falcons have yet to lose this year.

This league is very muddled at this point, and there could be more teams with seven losses than in any other conference.  In the Mountain Division, the bottom four teams could all finish 5-7, but the odds are that one of the four will get to 6-6.  As of today, we are going to tap Wyoming to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2011 and make Coach Craig Bohl a top candidate in Power 5 Conference coaching vacancies in December.  Bohl turned North Dakota State into the Alabama of FCS football.

Colorado State, Utah State, and New Mexico look like 5-7 teams.  The Aggies might be the luckiest ducks in football if they finish 5-7 this year.  See below to the end of this commentary to discover why.

In the West Division, the key is Hawaii.  The Rainbow Warriors will receive a ticket to the front of the seven-loss line if they lose seven games, because they will be 6-7 and not 5-7.  The NCAA guidelines state that a 6-7 team trumps any 5-7 team in bowl prioritization.  If UH finishes 5-8 or worse, then a host of other 5-7 teams will breathe minor sighs of relief.

The other part of the equation in the West Division is what happens with the two teams from the Silver State.  Nevada and UNLV are as mysterious as Area 51 this year.  The Wolf Pack played well at Notre Dame and then laid an egg in Hawaii.  The Rebels look to be on the cusp of turning things around with future star coach Tony Sanchez.  For our own sanity, we will give both schools promotions to 6-6, but that could change in a week.

Sun Belt

Like CUSA, the SBC is not a contender for a New Year’s 6 Bowl.  The league has four bids with a secondary fifth bid, and in all likelihood, there will be four bowl eligible teams.

Independents

We count Notre Dame as an ACC team, since they are open to appear in the ACC’s bowls and can leapfrog over any ACC team with a one game better record.

Massachusetts is not a bowl contender this year, but the Minutemen are an improved school and could be in contention in the next two years.

Army and BYU are the other two independent schools, and the Black Knights of West Point are going to end their bowl drought this year.  BYU is on the bubble.  The Cougars are going to have to fight and claw their way to a 6-6 record.  BYU is guaranteed a spot in the Poinsettia Bowl if they get to 6-6.  Army does not have a bowl tie-in this year due to their failure to compete for a bowl for the last several years, but the Cadets will definitely get a bowl bid with a 6-6 or better record.  They should be at least 7-5, and who knows: they could even win that 12th regular season game this year.

The Academic Progress Rate

The APR decides which 5-7 teams get bowl bids and which do not if there are openings remaining after all bowl eligible teams have been selected.  We believe this week that four 5-7 teams will receive bowl invitations with just 76 teams reaching bowl eligibility.  With four bowl openings, the top four 5-7 teams according to APR scores would receive those bids.  It does not matter if Oregon or Iowa is 5-7 and gets overlooked as a school like Duke or Boston College is also 5-7.  Here is the list of probable 5-7 teams ranked in order of APR score.  Because so many of the top APR scores belong to teams that figure to already be bowl eligible, it could take the 75th best APR score to fill a bowl.

1. Duke
2. Northwestern
3. Vanderbilt
4. Georgia Tech
5. Central Florida
6. Illinois
7. Boston College
8. Missouri
9. Utah St.
10. South Carolina

What this means is that if Duke finishes 5-7 and there is at least one bowl spot open, the Blue Devils automatically receive that bid.

The rules state that the 5-7 teams that qualify for bowls get to select the remaining bowls that are open in the order of their APR ranking.  For example, let’s say there are four bowl spots remaining and Duke, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, and Georgia Tech all finish 5-7.

Duke would select which of the four bowls that they wish to accept an invitation.  Northwestern would then select which of the remaining three bowls that they wish to accept.  Vanderbilt would then select from the remaining two bowls, and Georgia Tech would receive what was left.

Our wacky bowl selections are at the conclusion of this commentary.

Here are This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Predictive

For newcomers to this site, we supply two types of ratings.  Predictive ratings look forward to the next week’s games and do not act as rankings.  You will see that Louisville is rated ahead of Clemson in our Predictive Ratings, because we believe that if the two teams played this week on a neutral field, Louisville would win.

We look at each game and re-create a logical score of each game based on the statistical and play-by-play data.  Two 28-14 scores can be totally different.  In one instance, the game could have been 28-0 with five minutes left to play, and the second string of the losing team scored two late TDs.  In another instance, the score could be 21-14 with a few minutes left to play, and the trailing team driving in the Red Zone for the tying score, before a pick six at the end makes the game 28-14 rather than 21-21.  Our ratings differentiate between these two outcomes.

We have three separate Predictive Ratings, each using a different logarithm to come up with a power rating number.  We then supply an average for the three.

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	131.2	124.1	131.0	128.8
2	Ohio St.	126.6	125.7	128.1	126.8
3	Louisville	127.6	121.9	127.7	125.7
4	Michigan	124.5	122.0	125.0	123.8
5	Washington	124.4	116.9	124.3	121.9
6	Clemson	124.8	116.8	123.8	121.8
7	LSU	123.6	118.4	122.8	121.6
8	Tennessee	121.7	118.3	121.4	120.5
9	Oklahoma	120.3	117.8	120.3	119.5
10	Miami	120.9	113.9	120.9	118.6
11	Houston	118.3	116.2	120.6	118.4
12	Virginia Tech	116.6	116.2	117.1	116.6
13	Florida St.	118.8	112.0	117.9	116.2
14	North Carolina	118.1	111.5	117.8	115.8
15	Texas A&M	116.2	114.7	115.9	115.6
16	Auburn	115.8	114.2	115.8	115.3
17	Oklahoma St.	114.9	115.7	114.9	115.2
18	Stanford	117.7	110.7	116.6	115.0
19	Ole Miss	117.1	110.9	116.6	114.9
20	Wisconsin	114.4	112.4	114.9	113.9
21	Colorado	114.8	110.4	115.2	113.5
22	Pittsburgh	114.8	111.2	114.1	113.4
23	TCU	113.1	114.2	112.8	113.4
24	Florida	112.4	115.0	110.6	112.7
25	USC	114.7	110.5	112.0	112.4
26	UCLA	112.7	111.2	112.4	112.1
27	Nebraska	112.9	109.3	112.9	111.7
28	Notre Dame	113.1	109.7	111.6	111.5
29	Baylor	111.1	111.2	111.7	111.3
30	South Florida	111.9	109.2	112.9	111.3
31	Western Michigan	110.9	109.8	112.8	111.2
32	Mississippi St.	112.0	109.8	111.1	111.0
33	Iowa	112.2	109.1	111.5	110.9
34	Texas	110.0	111.7	109.0	110.2
35	Arkansas	112.5	108.1	109.9	110.2
36	Michigan St.	110.2	109.6	108.5	109.4
37	Boise St.	108.1	109.2	109.6	109.0
38	Washington St.	109.5	106.7	109.4	108.6
39	Georgia	108.9	108.3	108.3	108.5
40	Oregon	109.0	107.5	108.2	108.2
41	Kansas St.	106.9	109.8	106.8	107.8
42	Utah	110.3	104.7	108.0	107.7
43	Georgia Tech	109.4	105.1	108.3	107.6
44	BYU	109.5	103.6	109.1	107.4
45	North Carolina St.	108.1	105.8	107.6	107.2
46	West Virginia	107.6	106.5	107.0	107.0
47	Maryland	106.4	109.7	104.4	106.8
48	Arizona St.	107.0	106.5	105.8	106.5
49	Texas Tech	107.2	106.1	105.3	106.2
50	Northwestern	107.5	102.6	106.0	105.4
51	Penn St.	104.7	106.6	103.5	104.9
52	Toledo	104.8	103.2	105.8	104.6
53	Memphis	106.5	102.3	104.8	104.6
54	Minnesota	103.8	102.5	103.5	103.3
55	Indiana	101.9	105.3	101.2	102.8
56	Arizona	103.8	101.5	102.7	102.7
57	Air Force	102.3	102.7	102.9	102.6
58	California	105.8	98.2	103.7	102.6
59	Virginia	103.3	101.0	102.8	102.4
60	Missouri	102.7	101.7	102.3	102.3
61	San Diego St.	101.5	99.1	103.9	101.5
62	Boston College	101.4	101.2	101.3	101.3
63	Wake Forest	101.8	100.2	101.1	101.1
64	Vanderbilt	102.5	98.6	101.2	100.8
65	Temple	100.4	100.7	100.9	100.7
66	Tulsa	98.9	101.2	99.6	99.9
67	Western Kentucky	100.9	96.5	102.0	99.8
68	Syracuse	101.3	97.7	99.6	99.6
69	Central Michigan	98.8	100.2	99.7	99.6
70	South Carolina	99.9	99.2	99.4	99.5
71	Duke	99.6	99.9	98.2	99.2
72	Cincinnati	98.5	98.9	98.7	98.7
73	Appalachian St.	97.3	96.8	99.1	97.7
74	Navy	97.8	97.9	97.2	97.7
75	Iowa St.	97.9	97.5	97.1	97.5
76	Kentucky	96.4	98.7	95.3	96.8
77	Army	92.8	101.2	95.8	96.6
78	Illinois	97.8	94.5	97.0	96.5
79	Connecticut	96.7	94.5	96.4	95.9
80	Utah St.	94.4	96.7	94.3	95.1
81	Troy	92.9	97.5	94.9	95.1
82	Southern Mississippi	94.4	94.9	95.3	94.9
83	Middle Tennessee	94.1	95.5	94.6	94.7
84	Central Florida	93.7	96.1	94.0	94.6
85	Ohio	91.5	99.7	92.3	94.5
86	Rutgers	95.6	93.2	94.2	94.4
87	New Mexico	92.5	95.2	93.2	93.7
88	Northern Illinois	92.0	93.5	92.9	92.8
89	Purdue	93.2	91.5	92.2	92.3
90	Georgia Southern	91.5	91.3	93.8	92.2
91	Oregon St.	94.2	90.1	92.2	92.2
92	East Carolina	91.3	93.6	91.3	92.1
93	Marshall	90.0	92.7	91.7	91.5
94	Louisiana Tech	90.0	92.3	91.1	91.1
95	UNLV	89.0	93.4	89.2	90.5
96	SMU	89.9	89.6	91.9	90.5
97	Old Dominion	88.1	91.5	88.5	89.4
98	Akron	86.9	92.7	88.4	89.3
99	Nevada	87.5	90.6	88.5	88.9
100	Arkansas St.	87.5	89.5	89.0	88.7
101	San Jose St.	87.5	87.9	87.8	87.7
102	Ball St.	85.8	87.6	86.6	86.7
103	South Alabama	83.8	90.9	85.2	86.6
104	Tulane	84.8	89.2	85.5	86.5
105	Wyoming	85.4	85.7	85.8	85.7
106	Colorado St.	84.6	86.9	84.9	85.5
107	Miami (O)	84.4	85.5	86.1	85.3
108	Kansas	83.7	90.1	80.8	84.9
109	Kent St.	83.8	85.3	84.0	84.4
110	Bowling Green	84.2	84.0	83.6	83.9
111	Georgia St.	81.7	86.4	83.6	83.9
112	Massachusetts	80.6	87.5	81.9	83.3
113	Eastern Michigan	81.7	85.3	82.6	83.2
114	Rice	80.7	87.5	80.7	83.0
115	UTSA	79.0	86.5	81.6	82.4
116	Florida Atlantic	79.7	84.3	82.1	82.0
117	Fresno St.	80.2	84.5	79.6	81.4
118	Buffalo	78.0	85.8	79.1	81.0
119	Florida International	78.5	83.9	78.2	80.2
120	Hawaii	80.7	79.4	79.8	80.0
121	UL-Lafayette	76.7	84.2	78.4	79.8
122	Idaho	76.6	82.4	77.9	79.0
123	North Texas	75.3	78.1	75.5	76.3
124	New Mexico St.	73.2	76.4	74.1	74.6
125	UTEP	71.7	75.9	73.1	73.6
126	UL-Monroe	69.6	74.5	70.1	71.4
127	Charlotte	68.7	75.0	69.8	71.2
128	Texas St.	70.1	71.3	71.1	70.8

Retrodictive Ratings

Retrodictive Ratings are more like the poll rankings you see in the media, such as the AP and Coaches Polls.  These ratings attempt to rank from best to worst based on what the teams have done so far this year.  They are not meant to predict outcomes of future games.  Wins and schedule strength matter in these ratings, and whether a team deserved to win because they dominated a game or lucked out by winning a game they would have lost nine times out of 10, doesn’t affect their rating.

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
South Florida	111.9	109.2	112.9	111.3
Temple	100.4	100.7	100.9	100.7
Cincinnati	98.5	98.9	98.7	98.7
Connecticut	96.7	94.5	96.4	95.9
Central Florida	93.7	96.1	94.0	94.6
East Carolina	91.3	93.6	91.3	92.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	118.3	116.2	120.6	118.4
Memphis	106.5	102.3	104.8	104.6
Tulsa	98.9	101.2	99.6	99.9
Navy	97.8	97.9	97.2	97.7
SMU	89.9	89.6	91.9	90.5
Tulane	84.8	89.2	85.5	86.5
AAC Averages	99.1	99.2	99.5	99.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisville	127.6	121.9	127.7	125.7
Clemson	124.8	116.8	123.8	121.8
Florida St.	118.8	112.0	117.9	116.2
North Carolina St.	108.1	105.8	107.6	107.2
Boston College	101.4	101.2	101.3	101.3
Wake Forest	101.8	100.2	101.1	101.1
Syracuse	101.3	97.7	99.6	99.6
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Miami	120.9	113.9	120.9	118.6
Virginia Tech	116.6	116.2	117.1	116.6
North Carolina	118.1	111.5	117.8	115.8
Pittsburgh	114.8	111.2	114.1	113.4
Georgia Tech	109.4	105.1	108.3	107.6
Virginia	103.3	101.0	102.8	102.4
Duke	99.6	99.9	98.2	99.2
ACC Averages	111.9	108.2	111.3	110.5
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	120.3	117.8	120.3	119.5
Oklahoma St.	114.9	115.7	114.9	115.2
TCU	113.1	114.2	112.8	113.4
Baylor	111.1	111.2	111.7	111.3
Texas	110.0	111.7	109.0	110.2
Kansas St.	106.9	109.8	106.8	107.8
West Virginia	107.6	106.5	107.0	107.0
Texas Tech	107.2	106.1	105.3	106.2
Iowa St.	97.9	97.5	97.1	97.5
Kansas	83.7	90.1	80.8	84.9
Big 12 Averages	107.3	108.1	106.6	107.3
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	126.6	125.7	128.1	126.8
Michigan	124.5	122.0	125.0	123.8
Michigan St.	110.2	109.6	108.5	109.4
Maryland	106.4	109.7	104.4	106.8
Penn St.	104.7	106.6	103.5	104.9
Indiana	101.9	105.3	101.2	102.8
Rutgers	95.6	93.2	94.2	94.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Wisconsin	114.4	112.4	114.9	113.9
Nebraska	112.9	109.3	112.9	111.7
Iowa	112.2	109.1	111.5	110.9
Northwestern	107.5	102.6	106.0	105.4
Minnesota	103.8	102.5	103.5	103.3
Illinois	97.8	94.5	97.0	96.5
Purdue	93.2	91.5	92.2	92.3
Big Ten Averages	108.0	106.7	107.3	107.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	100.9	96.5	102.0	99.8
Middle Tennessee	94.1	95.5	94.6	94.7
Marshall	90.0	92.7	91.7	91.5
Old Dominion	88.1	91.5	88.5	89.4
Florida Atlantic	79.7	84.3	82.1	82.0
Florida International	78.5	83.9	78.2	80.2
Charlotte	68.7	75.0	69.8	71.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Southern Mississippi	94.4	94.9	95.3	94.9
Louisiana Tech	90.0	92.3	91.1	91.1
Rice	80.7	87.5	80.7	83.0
UTSA	79.0	86.5	81.6	82.4
North Texas	75.3	78.1	75.5	76.3
UTEP	71.7	75.9	73.1	73.6
CUSA Averages	83.9	87.3	84.9	85.4
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame	113.1	109.7	111.6	111.5
BYU	109.5	103.6	109.1	107.4
Army	92.8	101.2	95.8	96.6
Massachusetts	80.6	87.5	81.9	83.3
Independents Averages	99.0	100.5	99.6	99.7
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio	91.5	99.7	92.3	94.5
Akron	86.9	92.7	88.4	89.3
Miami (O)	84.4	85.5	86.1	85.3
Kent St.	83.8	85.3	84.0	84.4
Bowling Green	84.2	84.0	83.6	83.9
Buffalo	78.0	85.8	79.1	81.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	110.9	109.8	112.8	111.2
Toledo	104.8	103.2	105.8	104.6
Central Michigan	98.8	100.2	99.7	99.6
Northern Illinois	92.0	93.5	92.9	92.8
Ball St.	85.8	87.6	86.6	86.7
Eastern Michigan	81.7	85.3	82.6	83.2
MAC Averages	90.2	92.7	91.2	91.4
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	108.1	109.2	109.6	109.0
Air Force	102.3	102.7	102.9	102.6
Utah St.	94.4	96.7	94.3	95.1
New Mexico	92.5	95.2	93.2	93.7
Wyoming	85.4	85.7	85.8	85.7
Colorado St.	84.6	86.9	84.9	85.5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	101.5	99.1	103.9	101.5
UNLV	89.0	93.4	89.2	90.5
Nevada	87.5	90.6	88.5	88.9
San Jose St.	87.5	87.9	87.8	87.7
Fresno St.	80.2	84.5	79.6	81.4
Hawaii	80.7	79.4	79.8	80.0
MWC Averages	91.1	92.7	91.6	91.8
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Washington	124.4	116.9	124.3	121.9
Stanford	117.7	110.7	116.6	115.0
Washington St.	109.5	106.7	109.4	108.6
Oregon	109.0	107.5	108.2	108.2
California	105.8	98.2	103.7	102.6
Oregon St.	94.2	90.1	92.2	92.2
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Colorado	114.8	110.4	115.2	113.5
USC	114.7	110.5	112.0	112.4
UCLA	112.7	111.2	112.4	112.1
Utah	110.3	104.7	108.0	107.7
Arizona St.	107.0	106.5	105.8	106.5
Arizona	103.8	101.5	102.7	102.7
Pac-12 Averages	110.3	106.3	109.2	108.6
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	121.7	118.3	121.4	120.5
Florida	112.4	115.0	110.6	112.7
Georgia	108.9	108.3	108.3	108.5
Missouri	102.7	101.7	102.3	102.3
Vanderbilt	102.5	98.6	101.2	100.8
South Carolina	99.9	99.2	99.4	99.5
Kentucky	96.4	98.7	95.3	96.8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	131.2	124.1	131.0	128.8
LSU	123.6	118.4	122.8	121.6
Texas A&M	116.2	114.7	115.9	115.6
Auburn	115.8	114.2	115.8	115.3
Ole Miss	117.1	110.9	116.6	114.9
Mississippi St.	112.0	109.8	111.1	111.0
Arkansas	112.5	108.1	109.9	110.2
SEC Averages	112.4	110.0	111.5	111.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Appalachian St.	97.3	96.8	99.1	97.7
Troy	92.9	97.5	94.9	95.1
Georgia Southern	91.5	91.3	93.8	92.2
Arkansas St.	87.5	89.5	89.0	88.7
South Alabama	83.8	90.9	85.2	86.6
Georgia St.	81.7	86.4	83.6	83.9
UL-Lafayette	76.7	84.2	78.4	79.8
Idaho	76.6	82.4	77.9	79.0
New Mexico St.	73.2	76.4	74.1	74.6
UL-Monroe	69.6	74.5	70.1	71.4
Texas St.	70.1	71.3	71.1	70.8
Sun Belt Averages	81.9	85.6	83.4	83.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	112.4	110.0	111.5	111.3
2	ACC	111.9	108.2	111.3	110.5
3	Pac-12	110.3	106.3	109.2	108.6
4	Big Ten	108.0	106.7	107.3	107.4
5	Big 12	107.3	108.1	106.6	107.3
6	Independents	99.0	100.5	99.6	99.7
7	AAC	99.1	99.2	99.5	99.2
8	MWC	91.1	92.7	91.6	91.8
9	MAC	90.2	92.7	91.2	91.4
10	CUSA	83.9	87.3	84.9	85.4
11	Sun Belt	81.9	85.6	83.4	83.6

This Week’s Spreads

This Week’s Games–October 5-8
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Wednesday, October 5
Arkansas St.	Georgia Southern	-1.0	1.2	-1.8
Thursday, October 6
Louisiana Tech	Western Kentucky	-7.9	-1.2	-7.9
Memphis	Temple	9.1	4.6	6.9
Friday, October 7
Boston College	Clemson	-20.4	-12.6	-19.5
Central Florida	Tulane	11.9	9.9	11.5
Tulsa	SMU	12.0	14.6	10.7
New Mexico	Boise St.	-12.6	-11.0	-13.4
Saturday, October 8
Connecticut	Cincinnati	1.2	-1.4	0.7
North Carolina St.	Notre Dame	-2.0	-0.9	-1.0
Mississippi St.	Auburn	-0.8	-1.4	-1.7
Penn St.	Maryland	1.3	-0.1	2.1
Florida	LSU	-8.2	-0.4	-9.2
Minnesota	Iowa	-5.4	-3.6	-5.0
UTSA	Southern Miss.	-12.9	-5.9	-11.2
Kansas	TCU	-26.9	-21.6	-29.5
Texas (N)	Oklahoma	-10.3	-6.1	-11.3
South Florida	East Carolina	23.6	18.6	24.6
Pittsburgh	Georgia Tech	8.4	9.1	8.8
Ohio	Bowling Green	9.3	17.7	10.7
Eastern Michigan	Toledo	-20.6	-15.4	-20.7
Navy	Houston	-17.5	-15.3	-20.4
Akron	Miami (O)	4.5	9.2	4.3
Texas A&M	Tennessee	-2.5	-0.6	-2.5
North Carolina	Virginia Tech	4.5	-1.7	3.7
Florida Atlantic	Charlotte	23.5	11.8	14.8
Buffalo	Kent St.	-3.3	3.0	-2.4
Georgia St.	Texas St.	14.1	17.6	15.0
Wyoming	Air Force	-13.9	-14.0	-14.1
Oklahoma St.	Iowa St.	20.0	21.2	20.8
Ohio St.	Indiana	27.7	23.4	29.9
Michigan St.	BYU	3.7	9.0	2.4
Illinois	Purdue	7.1	8.5	7.3
Duke	Army	9.8	1.7	5.4
Central Michigan	Ball St.	16.0	15.6	16.1
Kentucky	Vanderbilt	-3.1	2.9	-2.9
USC	Colorado	2.9	3.1	-0.2
San Jose St.	Hawaii	10.8	12.5	12.0
Old Dominion	Massachusetts	10.0	6.5	9.1
Western Michigan	Northern Illinois	21.9	19.3	22.9
Rutgers	Michigan	-25.9	-25.8	-27.8
Arkansas	Alabama	-15.7	-12.3	-18.1
Kansas St.	Texas Tech	2.7	6.7	4.5
North Texas	Marshall	-11.7	-11.6	-13.2
Nevada	Fresno St.	10.3	9.1	11.9
UL-Monroe	Idaho	-4.0	-4.9	-4.8
Wake Forest	Syracuse	3.5	5.5	4.5
South Carolina	Georgia	-7.0	-7.1	-6.9
Oregon	Washington	-12.4	-6.4	-13.1
Miami (Fla)	Florida St.	4.1	3.9	5.0
UTEP	Florida Int’l.	-4.3	-5.5	-2.6
Oregon St.	California	-8.6	-5.1	-8.5
Utah	Arizona	9.5	6.2	8.3
Colorado St.	Utah St.	-6.8	-6.8	-6.4
San Diego St.	UNLV	15.5	8.7	17.7
Arizona St.	UCLA	-2.7	-1.7	-3.6
Stanford	Washington St.	11.2	7.0	10.2

 

Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Nevada	vs.	Louisiana Tech
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC	USC	vs.	Boise St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Army]	vs.	Appalachian St.
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Akron	vs.	South Alabama
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Marshall	vs.	Troy
Miami Beach	AAC	MAC	Central Florida	vs.	Ohio U
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	vs.	W. Kentucky
Poinsettia	MWC	BYU	San Diego St.	vs.	BYU
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Central Mich.	vs.	Wyoming
Bahamas	AAC/CUSA	MAC/CUSA	Tulsa	vs.	Western Mich.
Armed Forces	Navy	Big 12	Navy	vs.	{Boston Coll.}
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Toledo	vs.	Ga. Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	Southern Miss.	vs.	Air Force
St. Petersburg	AAC	ACC/ND	South Florida	vs.	Georgia Tech
Quick Lane	ACC/ND	Big Ten	[Ball St.]	vs.	Indiana
Independence	SEC	ACC/ND	[Washington St.]	vs.	{South Carolina}
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	{Northwestern}	vs.	Middle Tenn.
Military	ACC/ND	AAC	Wake Forest	vs.	Temple
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	vs.	Colorado
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	vs.	UCLA
Pinstripe	ACC/ND	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	vs.	Maryland
Russell Athletic	ACC/ND	Big 12	North Carolina	vs.	West Virginia
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan St.	vs.	Utah
Texas	Big 12	SEC	TCU	vs.	Auburn
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	[N.Illinois]	vs.	{Utah St.}
Belk	ACC/ND	SEC	Virginia Tech	vs.	Arkansas
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Stanford
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	vs.	Florida
Sun	ACC/ND	Pac-12	Notre Dame	vs.	Arizona St.
Arizona	CUSA/SBC	MWC/SBC	Old Dominion	vs.	UNLV
Music City	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Penn St.	vs.	[California]
Orange	ACC/ND	B10/SEC	Louisville	vs.	Tennessee
Citrus	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Wisconsin	vs.	Ole Miss
TaxSlayer	ACC/ND/B10	SEC	Florida St.	vs.	LSU
Peach	Semifinal	Semifinal	Alabama	vs.	Houston
Fiesta	Semifinal	Semifinal	Ohio St.	vs.	Clemson
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Georgia	vs.	Nebraska
Cotton	At-Large	At-Large	Baylor	vs.	Miami (Fla.)
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan	vs.	Washington
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	vs.	Texas A&M
Nat’l Championship	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	vs.	Ohio St.
[Team]	At-Large Selection
{Team}	At-Large Selection of projected 5-7 team

 

 

 

 

2016 Mid-American Conference Football Preview

The Mid-American Conference has been for years breeding grounds for rising head coaches. Miami of Ohio was once referred to as the “Cradle of Coaches” for producing incredible future stars such as Woody Hayes, Bo Schembechler, Paul Brown, Sid Gillman, Ara Parseghian, and more than a dozen additional coaches that achieved fame and championships elsewhere.

In recent years, the MAC has sent multiple head coaches to power five conferences, such as: Dave Clawson to Wake Forest; Dave Doeren to North Carolina St.; Dino Babers to Syracuse; Matt Campbell to Iowa St.; and Darrell Hazzell to Purdue.

There is a reason for the coaching promotions. MAC teams have a storied history of beating Power Conference teams, especially their big brothers of the Big Ten. In the last four seasons alone, MAC teams have 16 wins over Power 5 teams, 11 of those 16 against current Big Ten members.

The MAC is the only league with a change in membership this year, as Massachusetts has left and become an independent school. That makes the league balanced again with six teams in both divisions.

The West had the most exciting race among any divisions in FBS football last year, as Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, and Toledo tied for the division flag with 6-2 conference marks. NIU won the tiebreaker and fell to East Division champ Bowling Green in the MAC title game.

Babers has left BGU for Syracuse, but new coach Mike Jinks comes in and promises to keep the wide-open up-tempo offense that allowed the Falcons to average better than 42 points and almost 550 total yards per game. Jinks comes from a similar style at Texas Tech.

Frank Solich begins his 12th season at Ohio U, and the Bobcats should contend in the East with BGU. The Bobcats have been bowl eligible for seven consecutive seasons, and they should make it eight this year.

The West should be another interesting affair this season, as last year’s quartet of co-champions should compete again, and another co-championship is highly likely. The top three quarterbacks in the league belong to Central Michigan (Cooper Rush), Northern Illinois (Drew Hare), and Western Michigan (Zach Terrell). Brogan Roback at Eastern Michigan might be as good as this group, but playing for the Eagles can be hazardous to a QB’s health.

The MAC Media believe the East Division is a toss-up, while the West Division is rather cut and dry.

Official MAC Media Preseason Poll

MAC East Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Bowling Green	12	136	1
2	Ohio U	10	134	0
3	Akron	4	107	1
4	Buffalo	0	75	0
5	Miami (O)	0	52	0
6	Kent St.	0	42	0
MAC West Division
#	Team	1st Pl.	Total	Champ.
1	Western Michigan	19	144	19
2	Toledo	2	113	2
3	Northern Illinois	3	112	2
4	Central Michigan	2	98	1
5	Ball St.	0	44	0
6	Eastern Michigan	0	35	0

The PiRate Ratings agree closely with the media to start the season.

Initial PiRate Ratings for the Mid-American Conference

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	96.7	94.7	97.3	96.2
Ohio	88.7	98.2	90.1	92.4
Akron	84.8	92.6	86.5	88.0
Buffalo	80.8	90.1	82.2	84.4
Miami (O)	82.2	84.0	82.9	83.0
Kent St.	82.3	84.5	82.2	83.0
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	101.8	100.7	103.7	102.1
Toledo	101.8	99.7	102.6	101.4
Central Michigan	98.7	101.7	99.7	100.1
Northern Illinois	97.1	98.7	98.2	98.0
Ball St.	83.5	85.5	83.7	84.3
Eastern Michigan	78.0	83.5	79.4	80.3
MAC Averages	89.7	92.9	90.7	91.1

The PiRate Ratings are best used just to look forward to the next week game schedule.  These ratings cannot really be used to predict won-loss records, so with that caveat, here are the projected won-loss records based on the ratings alone.

Mid-American Conference Projected Standings
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
East Division
Bowling Green	6-2	8-5	Idaho Potato
Ohio U	5-3	7-5	GoDaddy
Akron	4-4	5-7
Buffalo	3-5	4-8
Miami (O)	2-6	3-9
Kent St.	0-8	2-10
West Division
Western Michigan	7-1	10-3 *	Miami Beach
Toledo	7-1	8-4	Bahamas
Central Michigan	6-2	8-4	[Boca Raton] ^
Northern Illinois	6-2	8-4	Camellia
Eastern Michigan	1-7	4-8
Ball St.	1-7	2-10
* WMU wins MAC Title
^ CMU’s  bowl is at-large

Next Preview: Thursday, August 18–Mountain West Conference

 

 

 

 

 

2015 Mid-American Conference Preview

It’s been three years since Northern Illinois sneaked into a BCS Bowl, losing to Florida State in the 2013 Orange Bowl, and since that time, the Mid-American Conference has fallen a few spots in the conference ladder, just barely beginning the 2015-16 season ahead of Conference USA and the Sun Belt Conference.

There are talented teams in both MAC divisions, but overall, the league has gotten a few points weaker in recent years.  In the past three seasons, this league is just 4-13 in bowl games, many of those losses to mediocre opponents.  And, last year, MAC teams went 4-20 against teams from Big 6 conferences.  Those four beaten big boys were Pittsburgh, Indiana, Purdue, and Northwestern.  Among the 20 losses were Big Six Conference lightweights Colorado and Vanderbilt, as well as the aforementioned Purdue Boilermakers.  Additional losses to the likes of Eastern Kentucky and Army (twice) knocked this league down a few more notches.

2015 brings a new outlook for the Big Ten’s stepbrother.  The league will produce a few future NFL players, and we believe this might be the season where the MAC breaks even or even finished above .500 in the bowl picture.

The East Division figures to be four deep in contenders, with Bowling Green leading the way.  Second year coach Dino Babers won the division in his first year at the helm, as the Falcons found a way to win close games.  However, a three-game losing streak to close out the regular season spoiled a possible repeat of 2013.  This year, Babers’ squad is loaded on offense and should score up to 35 points per game, but the defense may be just as generous.  The key is the BGU secondary, which is thin to start the season.

Frank Solich once had his alma mater, Nebraska, at the number one spot in the nation and on the cusp of becoming another national champion like the 1997, 1995, 1994, 1971, and 1970 teams.  An unbelievable upset blowout loss at Colorado on Black Friday of 2001 basically started the ball rolling to his dismissal in Lincoln, and led to his arrival in Athens, Ohio, where Solich has guided the Ohio Bobcats to a 72-56 record and six bowl trips in his ten-year tenure.  Solich’s Bobcats figure to be right on Bowling Green’s heels this year, and the Wednesday night, November 4 game at BGU could determine which East team will play in the MAC Championship Game.

Our sleeper team in the league this year is UMass.  The Minutemen have yet to challenge in their first three years in the league, but we have a sneaky suspicion that Coach Mark Whipple’s crew is going to matter in the East Division race this year.  The UMass offense is going to be lethal at times this season with the league’s top quarterback and two of the top receivers.  Whipple’s Minutemen will not be a one trick pony.  The defense should improve by as much as a touchdown per game, and we believe UMass will be bowl eligible.  The bowl invitation may not arrive, but a 6-6 season would be enough to create a lot more support in Amherst.

Akron has become a “sexy” pick among the MAC Media, as they believe Coach Terry Bowden is about to turn the corner in the land of rubber.  We believe the Zips will vie with UMass for third place, but any of the top four in this division could make it to the Championship Game.  Former Louisville wideout Michaelee Harris could be the added ingredient that proves the media to be a modern day Nostradamus.

Kent State is not that far behind the four contenders, but the Golden Flashes have a killer schedule that includes road games against Illinois, Minnesota, Toledo, Ohio, and Akron, and a home game against Marshall.  Basically, to make it to .500, the Flashes will have to win the rest of their games, and since the rest of their games include Bowling Green, there is not a path to bowl eligibility this season.

Buffalo and Miami (O) will fight it out in an attempt to avoid the cellar, as these two teams will be out of bowl contention before November.  Buffalo actually has some decent talent, but the Bulls don’t have enough to compete with the top four in the MAC East.  Miami must be fortunate to draw an opening home game against Presbyterian.  A loss to the Blue Hose would mean the Redhawks would be 0-9 when Eastern Michigan comes to Oxford.

The West Division has three very talented squads that are no more than a field goal apart in our ratings to start the season.  Any of the top three could state an excellent case as to why they are the best of the trio.

To start 2015, we rate Western Michigan as the best in the division and the league.  Coach P. J. Fleck was on a possible hot seat after a 1-11 innaugural season.  In year two, the Broncos put together a six-game winning streak that finally ended in the season finale against Northern Illinois in a game that had WMU won, would have been enough to take a piece of the division title.  With the bulk of the team that surprised with an 8-4 regular season mark returning, including quarterback Zach Terrell, star runnning back Jarvion Franklin, and just about every receiver that caught a pass last year, look for WMU to be the team to beat in the MAC and possibly one to scare Michigan State for a half in the season opener.

Toledo is not as talented as WMU, but the Rockets have a huge advantage over the Broncos.  TU hosts WMU as well as Northern Illinois, while WMU must finish out the regular season with back-to-back road games against the other two contenders.  Running back Kareem Hunt may be the best back in the league, and he returns as well as quarterback Phillip Ely.  The one problem with the Toledo offense is a green blocking quintet.  If the young offensive linemen improve enough by November, then TU will become the favorite to win the division flag.  If the group never puts it together, then even hosting the other two contenders may not matter.

As for Northern Illinois, the Huskies may have the best defense of the three contenders, but the offense is the weakest of the three contenders.  It could be trouble for NIU having to play at Ohio State and at Boston College in back-to-back weeks, and injuries could accumulate and cause the Huskies trouble the following week, when they continue their road trip at Central Michigan.

Ball State coach Pete Lembo has done an admirable job in Muncie, Indiana, in his four years there.  He took over a program that had dropped to the cellar in the West Division, even falling below Eastern Michigan, and he has produced 6-6, 9-4, 10-3, and 5-7 records.  This year’s Cardinals squad should be considerably better than last year’s team, but the schedule is not all that favorable.  Among their four non-conference games, BSU plays at Texas A&M and at Northwestern.  There is still a good chance that Lembo can guide this squad back to bowl eligibility.

There was a time when Central Michigan was the class of the league under former coaches Butch Jones and Brian Kelly.  The last three years, Coach Dan Enos took the Chippewas to two bowl games and had a bowl eligible team the other year.  However, Enos did not receive a lot of support in Mt. Pleasant, so after last year’s 7-6 season, he resigned to accept the offensive coordinator’s position at Arkansas.  New coach John Bonamego has the unenviable task of starting over with a thinned group of Chippewas, and we believe CMU will fall back in the pack just barely ahead of perennial cellar-dweller Eastern Michigan.

Eastern Michigan has suffered through three consecutive 2-10 seasons, and a rebuilding offense will keep the Eagles at two or even fewer wins this year.

Here is a look at the MAC Media Preseason Poll.

Mid-American Conference Media Poll
Pos.	Team	1st Place	Total
MAC East Division
1	Bowling Green	18	160
2t	Akron	2	118
2t	Ohio U	1	118
4	Massachusetts	3	113
5	Buffalo	0	70
6	Miami (O)	0	47
7	Kent St.	0	46
MAC West Division
1	Toledo	11	121
2	Western Michigan	8	120
3	Northern Illinois	4	113
4	Ball St.	0	66
5	Central Michigan	1	56
6	Eastern Michigan	0	28
2015 MAC Championship Game Winner: Toledo (9);
Western Michigan (8); Northern Illinois (6); Central Michigan (1).

The MAC Media did not vote on an official preseason All-Conference Team, so we have included the highest-rated players at each position according to our PiRate Ratings formula.

Conference USA Preseason All-Conference Team
Offense	Player		School
Quarterback	Blake Frohnapfel		Massachusetts
Running Back	Kareem Hunt		Toledo
Running Back	Javion Franklin		Western Michigan
Running Back	Anthone Taylor		Buffalo
Running Back	Travis Greene		Bowling Green
Wide Receiver	Roger Lewis		Bowling Green
Wide Receiver	Tajae Sharp		Massachusetts
Wide Receiver	Corey Davis		Western Michigan
Wide Receiver	Ron Willoughby		Buffalo
Tight End	Rodney Mills		Massachusetts
Offensive Line	Andrew Ness		Northern Illinois
Offensive Line	James Kristof		Western Michigan
Offensive Line	Alex Huettel		Bowling Green
Offensive Line	Willie Beavers		Western Michigan
Offensive Line	Steven Bell		Ball St.
Defense	Player		School
Defensive Line	Trent Voss		Toledo
Defensive Line	Tarell Basham		Ohio U
Defensive Line	Perez Ford		Northern Illinois
Defensive Line	Pat O’Connor		Eastern Michigan
Defensive Line	Orion Jones		Toledo
Linebacker	Great Ibe		Eastern Michigan
Linebacker	Jatavis Brown		Akron
Linebacker	Jovan Santos-Knox		Massachusetts
Defensive Back	Paris Logan		Northern Illinois
Defensive Back	Randall Jette		Massachusetts
Defensive Back	Ronald Zamort		Western Michigan
Defensive Back	Nate Holley		Kent St.
Defensive Back	Tony Annese		Central Michigan
Defensive Back	Marlon Moore		Northern Illinois
Special Teams	Player		School
Kicker	Tyler Tate		Bowling Green
Punter	Anthony Melchiori		Kent St.
Kick Returner	Darius Phillips		Western Michigan
Punt Returner	Ryan Burbrink		Bowling Green
Long Snapper	Wyatt Pfeifer		Western Michigan

Here is how our three PiRate Ratings and the average of the three look to begin the season.

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	93.6	100.1	95.7	96.5
Ohio	89.7	94.1	91.0	91.6
Massachusetts	86.5	90.1	88.3	88.3
Akron	82.2	89.6	83.7	85.2
Kent St.	83.3	87.1	84.6	85.0
Buffalo	78.6	86.1	80.6	81.8
Miami (O)	75.8	83.1	75.9	78.3
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Michigan	96.7	98.1	97.9	97.6
Toledo	95.7	94.1	96.6	95.5
Northern Illinois	91.8	95.1	92.2	93.0
Ball St.	87.4	89.8	88.6	88.6
Central Michigan	80.1	86.6	81.9	82.9
Eastern Michigan	72.7	84.1	72.6	76.5
MAC Averages	85.7	90.6	86.9	87.7

Here is our PiRate Rating Predictions and Bowl Projections.

PiRate Ratings Predicted Records
Pos	Team	Conf.	Overall	Bowl
East Division
1	Bowling Green	7-1	7-6 ^	Boca Raton
2	Ohio U	5-3	7-5	Idaho Potato
3	Massachusetts	5-3	6-6	Bowl Elig.
4	Akron	5-3	6-6	At-Large
5	Kent St.	3-5	4-8	None
6	Buffalo	1-7	2-10	None
7	Miami (O)	1-7	2-10	None
West Division
1	Western Michigan	7-1	10-3 *	GoDaddy
2	Toledo	6-2	9-3	Bahamas
3	Northern Illinois	6-2	8-4	Camellia
4	Ball St.	4-4	6-6	Bowl Elig.
5	Central Michigan	2-6	3-9	None
6	Eastern Michigan	0-8	1-11	None
*	Wins Title Game
^	Loses Title Game
	Bowl Elig. means the team will probably be left out of the bowls.

Coming up next: The Mountain West Conference

 

2012 Mid-American Conference Preview

From the 1970’s through the 1990’s, the Western Athletic Conference usually featured the most wide-open, exciting offenses in college football.  In the 21^st Century, it is the Mid-American Conference that has wrested that title away.

 

Welcome to the most exciting conference in college football.  Look at the list of quarterbacks that have graced this conference this century:

 

Akron: Charlie Frye

Bowling Green: Tyler Sheehan

Buffalo: Drew Willy

Kent State: Josh Cribbs

Miami (O): Ben Roethlisberger and Josh Betts

Ball State: Nate Davis

Central Michigan: Dan LeFevour

Northern Illinois: Chandler Harnish

Toledo: Bruce Gradkowski

Western Michigan: Tim Hiller

 

Remember also that Marshall was once a member of this league, and Byron Leftwich was the star quarterback of the league at the beginning of the century.

 

2012 should reinforce the image that the MAC is now the most wide-open passing league in FBS football. 

 

This league has been rather balanced as well.  10 of the 13 teams (including Temple) earned bowl bids in the last four seasons, and six different schools appeared in the MAC Championship Game.  Only Eastern Michigan, Kent State, and Akron failed to earn a bowl bid in the last four years; it will be awhile before the Zips are bowl eligible again, but EMU and Kent State could both challenge for those honors in 2012.

 

There has been one defection and one addition to the league this year.  Temple left to return to the wounded Big East.  Massachusetts moves from FCS to FBS.  UMass has competed with BCS opponents in recent years, losing close games to Kansas State and Michigan, but the Minutemen enter FBS play in a rebuilding mode.

 

At the conference’s media days, the preseason pollsters believed the East Division was rather cut-and-dry, while the West was a three-way race for first.

 

	MAC East	Votes
Rank	Team	1st Place	Total
1	Ohio U	17	119	(5)
2	Bowling Green	0	91
3	Miami (O)	0	84
4	Kent State	0	76
5	Buffalo	0	52
6	Akron	0	31
7	Massachusetts	0	23
	MAC West	Votes
Rank	Team	1st Place	Total
1	Toledo	7	87	(3)
2	Northern Illinois	5	83	(1)
3	Western Michigan	4	79	(1)
4	Ball State	0	42
5	Eastern Michigan	0	34
6	Central Michigan	1	32	(1)
Number in ( ) indicates votes to win MAC title game

 

The PiRate Ratings see this as a much more open race, with three legitimate contenders in both divisions with four more teams talented enough to compete for bowl eligibility.

 

PiRate Ratings
Rank	MAC East	PiRate
1	Ohio U	94.8
2	Miami (O)	93.5
3	Bowling Green	93.0
4	Kent State	88.7
5	Buffalo	82.6
6	Massachusetts	69.5
7	Akron	69.2
Rank	MAC West	PiRate
1	Western Michigan	94.6
2	Toledo	93.6
3	Northern Illinois	92.1
4	Central Michigan	89.3
5	Ball State	88.6
6	Eastern Michigan	87.2

 

 

The PiRate Vintage Ratings are a happy medium.  These ratings concur that the East Division could be a one-team race, but these ratings also show the West to be a real dogfight where all six teams will enjoy some happy and some sad days, as the half-dozen beat up on themselves.

 

Vintage Ratings
Rank	MAC East	Vintage
1	Ohio U	98
2	Miami (O)	93
3	Bowling Green	92
4	Kent State	87
5	Buffalo	87
6	Akron	84
7	Massachusetts	79
Rank	MAC West	Vintage
1	Western Michigan	96
2	Toledo	94
3	Northern Illinois	92
4	Central Michigan	91
5	Eastern Michigan	90
6	Ball State	88

 

 

East Division Team	Akron Zips
Head Coach	Terry Bowden
Colors	Blue and Gold
City	Akron, OH
2011 Record
Conference	0-8
Overall	1-11
PiRate Rating	69.2
National Rating	124
Vintage Rating	84
National Rating	116
2012 Prediction
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-10

 

Terry Bowden returns to the FBS head coaching ranks after 14 seasons.  Former North Carolina State head man Chuck Amato comes with him as his defensive coordinator.  That will be worth a couple thousand more sold tickets, but at most just one more victory this year.

 

Bowden shook things up immediately during the Spring.  He promoted Dalton Williams, a transfer from Stephen F. Austin with knowledge of the offense Bowden uses, to number one quarterback; returning starter Clayton Moore transferred to Jackson State.  Williams put up good numbers in the Southland Conference, but he was a three-year backup at the FCS level.

 

The Zip receiving corps was going to be rather strong, but one of the key targets, A. J. Price, lost his battle with the books and is ineligible.  Keith Sconiers and Marquelo Suel teamed up for 81 receptions and 1,056 yards last year, but there is little depth behind the big two.

 

The running game has not set the woods on fire in the last three years, and even with the return of top rusher Jawon Chisholm, we believe the running game will continue to disappoint.  Expect the Zips to struggle to reach triple digits in rushing average this season, especially since the offensive line figures to be a little weaker than it was in 2011.

 

The defense could not force turnovers last year, and the Zips stayed on the field far too long (52% of the scrimmage plays).  Akron surrendered more than 200 yards on the ground and through the air, and opponents averaged better than 38 points per game against them.

 

Middle linebacker Troy Gilmer is the star on this side of the ball.  He could register 100 tackles this year, but unfortunately many will be five or more yards past the line of scrimmage.

 

The pass rush was appalling last year, dumping enemy quarterbacks just 11 times.  In half the games, the Zips never got to the QB.  It will be tough to improve by much, because the player that recorded 32% of the teams’ sacks has used up his eligibility.

 

Akron hosts UMass four days after the Presidential election.  That game may decide if the Zips are to register a vote in the conference win column.  A September home game with FCS opponent Morgan State will guarantee them at least one win.

 

Team	Bowling Green Falcons
Head Coach	Dave Clawson
Colors	Orange and Brown
City	Bowling Green, OH
2011 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	5-7
PiRate Rating	93.0
National Rating	82
Vintage Rating	92
National Rating	93
2012 Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	7-5

 

Fourth year head coach Dave Clawson knows how to go with the flow and recognize the theme of the MAC.  His Falcons can pass the ball all over the field, and with junior quarterback Matt Schilz back in the fold, BGU should gain better than 250 passing yards per game for the third time in Clawson’s four years in Bowling Green.

 

The question is, “who will be on the other end of those passes?”  Last year’s top two receivers are gone, and the two combined to catch more than 57% of the completed passes, score 75% of the passing touchdowns, and gain more than 60% of the receiving yards.  This new unit will rely more on possession receiving and less on breaking long gainers.  Tight end Alex Bayer should be called on to contribute more this year after grabbing 20 passes a year ago.

 

The running game returns Anthon Samuel, last year’s key runner.  Samuel rushed for 844 yards, averaging almost six yards per carry.  If it weren’t for a deep stable of reserves, Samuel could top 1,000 yards.  Keep an eye on former Pitt back Andre Givens.

 

The reason the Falcons should contend for the East Division crown is a much improved defense with loads of returning experience.  Of course, BGU must improve on last year’s poor defensive showing (29 points/406 yards) in order to compete for the division title.

 

Middle linebacker Dwayne Woods and outside linebacker Paul Swan should team for about 180-200 tackles.  Where those tackles are made will be the key to how improved this defense can be.  Woods made 14 stops for negative yardage last year, while Swan added just 1.5.

 

Considering the pass rush was not all that stellar, the secondary did a good job, holding opponents to less than 57% completions.  There is some depth here, so look for the defense to improve its passing yardage allowed by as much as 25 yards per game.

 

Bowling Green figures to be in contention for the East title heading into a Wednesday night game at Ohio U in November.  That could be the game that decides who advances to the championship game.

 

 

 

Team	Buffalo Bulls
Head Coach	Jeff Quinn
Colors	Royal Blue and White
City	Buffalo, NY
2011 Record
Conference	2-6
Overall	3-9
PiRate Rating	82.6
National Rating	110
Vintage Rating	87
National Rating	109
2012 Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	3-9

 

The Bulls have not been a MAC juggernaut since joining the league, but at least they won the conference championship four years ago, which is better than their similar-nicknamed professional team from their town.

 

Buffalo is one of a handful of MAC teams that does not have a tested quarterback that can toss the ball all over the field.   Alex Zordich will begin the year as the starter under center, but redshirt freshman Joe Licata is likely to eventually emerge as the starter after he broke all kinds of passing records in the Western New York high school ranks; however, the Empire State is not a hotbed for defensive backs.  Expect more mistakes from two untested players.

 

The receiving corps has some talent, but not enough for the MAC.  Alex Neutz and Fred Lee need to step up, or else the new quarterbacks are going to have a lot of mediocre Saturdays.

 

The running game features the leading returning MAC rusher in Brandon Oliver (1,395 yards and 13 TD), but if the passing game does not keep defenses honest, Oliver will not repeat those numbers.  Backup James Potts has never lived up to his potential, as he was expected to star for the Bulls.  This could be his year to emerge as a capable backup.

 

One thing in the Bulls’ favor is a decent offensive line with experience and depth, albeit no real stars.

 

The Buffalo defense is in better shape than the offense.  If the offense can hold onto the ball or eat the clock to limit defensive reps, the stop troops could yield around 24-26 points and 350-375 yards per game, which in the MAC means it is good.

 

Former Illinois head coach Lou Tepper takes over as the defensive coordinator.  Tepper uses a 3-4 defense, and he has an exceptional pass rusher in outside linebacker Khalil Mack, who tied for the MAC lead in tackles for loss with 20 ½.  The defensive front sounds like a government committee with the ends named, “Way and Means.”  The duo form a strong bond, but the Bulls need a reliable nose tackle to stuff the “A” gaps and keep pressure off the linebackers.

 

Buffalo has a tough non-league slate with just one winnable game, so this team will not challenge for bowl eligibility this year.  In fact, if the Bulls do not improve on their 3-9 record of last year, third year coach Jeff Quinn could be feeling a little fire in his seat.

 

Team	Kent State Golden Flashes
Head Coach	Darrell Hazell
Colors	Navy and Gold
City	Kent, OH
2011 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	5-7
PiRate Rating	88.7
National Rating	98
Vintage Rating	87
National Rating	110
2012 Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	5-7

 

40 years!  That’s how long it’s been since the Golden Flashes made their one and only bowl appearance.  It’s been so long that current Alabama coach Nick Saban and Missouri coach Gary Pinkel were teammates on that team, and longtime NFL coach Dom Capers was a green assistant coach.

 

There is a chance that the 40-years sojourn outside of the “land of bowldom” could end this year, but only if Coach Darrell Hazell can find some weapons on offense.

 

Kent State led the league in defensive yardage allowed last year, but their offense finished dead last, gaining just 254 yards per game.

 

Spencer Keith returns at quarterback for his senior season, but he is not assured of retaining his starting spot.  Keith completed just 51% of his passes and averaged just 5.2 yards per attempt.  Newcomers David Fisher, a junior college transfer, and true freshman Colin Reardon are in the mix.

Tyshon Goode is one of the few MAC-worthy players on this side of the ball.  The senior caught just 24 passes last year, and he needs to double that total this year if KSU is to contend for bowl eligibility.

 

Trayion Durham rushed for 630 yards and four scores last year, but he averaged just 3.4 yards per rush.  Look for those number to improve this year, because the offensive line returns four starters and welcomes a surprise fifth starter.  Guard Pat McShane left Indiana two years ago and gave up football.  The KSU coaching staff did not even know he had enrolled and was on campus, until he came into their offices in late Spring and told them he wanted to return to the game.  He has performed so well, he has ascended to the top of the depth chart.

 

As good as the Golden Flashes’ defense was in 2011, it should be even better in 2012, and that is why they have to be considered a contender for bowl eligibility and even a dark horse in the East Division race.

 

Eight of the top nine tacklers return this year.  The most talented unit is the secondary, where Kent State has quality good enough to play in the Big Ten.  The quartet of Norman Wolfe and Sidney Saulter at cornerback and Calvin Tiggle and Luke Wollet teamed up for 10 interceptions and nine more passes knocked away.  Even with the loss of stud cornerback Josh Pleasant, this will be the top secondary in the league, possibly the only one capable of yielding less than 180 passing yards per game.

 

The defensive line and linebackers are equally competent for MAC standards.  Middle linebacker Luke Batton and outside linebacker C. J. Malauulu finished one-two in stops, teaming for 185 tackles and 16 ½ for losses.

 

Up front, Jake Dooley and Roosevelt Nix teamed for 27 ½ tackles for loss.  Nix is also a plus dropping off in pass coverage.

 

Kent State’s schedule gives the Flashes a chance to sneak into division title contention.  They face the three teams figured to contend for the title in the final three games.  By then, Miami, Bowling Green, and Ohio could all have penned losses on each other, and KSU could have the upper hand.  It’s possible, but not all that probably.  Still, this is the best team in Kent in many years.  The season starts out with nine days off between game one and two; 11 days off between games two and three; and 10 days off between games three and four.

 

 

 

Team	Massachusetts Minutemen
Head Coach	Charley Molnar
Colors	Maroon and White
City	Amherst, MA
2011 Record
Conference	FCS Member
Overall	5-6
PiRate Rating	69.5
National Rating	123
Vintage Rating	79
National Rating	122
2012 Prediction
Conference	1-7
Overall	1-11

 

A first year head coach takes over the reins of a first year in FBS team, and there is a lot of rebuilding to do at the same time.  2012 does not appear to be a banner year for UMass.  The Minutemen will be underdogs in all 12 games this year, as they do not face a FCS opponent.

 

Quarterback Kellen Pagel is the son of former Cleveland Browns QB Mike Pagel.  He began his career at Bowling Green and returns to the MAC to lead the Minutemen.  UMass will run a no-huddle hurry-up offense similar to what Hugh Freeze ran at Arkansas State last year.  Expect UMass’s pass attempts per game to increase by 5-10 this year.

 

The rest of the skill positions will be manned by new starters.  The Minutemen must replace a 1,000-yard rusher as well as their top five pass receivers.  There is experience returning in the trenches, but the starting quintet is far from being FBS caliber.

 

Things are a little bit brighter on the defensive side, but there are no players capable of earning first team All-MAC honors.  Middle linebacker Perry McIntyre registered 116 tackles with 11 ½ going for losses, and he anchors an experienced trio at linebacker.

 

The Minutemen play at Akron on November 10, and this could be there best chance to break through with a win.  Anything more will be an exceptional accomplishment.

 

Team	Miami (Ohio) Redhawks
Head Coach	Don Treadwell
Colors	Red and White
City	Oxford, OH
2011 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8
PiRate Rating	93.5
National Rating	81
Vintage Rating	93
National Rating	92
2012 Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	6-6

 

Coach Don Treadwell comes from two excellent coaching trees.  He assisted former Ohio State coach Jim Tressel and Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio.  Treadwell believes in old-fashioned football with the establishing of a running game to set up the pass.  He had to call an audible last year in his first season in Oxford.  Miami averaged just 73.8 yards per game rushing.  The number was skewed by an inordinate number of sacks, but still this team’s leading rusher, Erik Finklea, rushed for just 328 yards.

 

The Redhawks made up for the lack of a running game with one of the best passing attacks in college football.  Zac Dysert passed for more than 3,500 yards and 23 touchdowns, while connecting on close to 2/3 of his pass attempts.  If he stays healthy, he should pass Ben Roethlisberger as the school’s all time leading passer some time in late October or early November.

 

One of the top receivers in the league returns to provide Dysert an excellent target.  Nick Harwell caught 97 passes for 1,425 yards and nine touchdowns. 

 

If the running game is to improve enough to put Miami over the top, the offensive line has to gel early this year.  Four starters return, but the one starter lost was the best blocker on the team.

 

The defense was not as strong as Kent State, but the Redhawks performed admirably on this side of the ball, limiting opponents to 23 points and 364 yards per game.  While the top three tacklers used up their eligibility, there is quality talent remaining.

 

Cornerback Dayonne Nunley earned 1^st team all-conference accolades last year after intercepting three passes and batting away 13 others.  He is equally proficient against the run.

 

Up front, end Jason Semmes and tackle Austin Brown will contend for all-conference honors. 

 

The schedule is a bit difficult and does not do the Redhawks any favors.  Miami starts the season at Ohio State and plays at Boise State in game three.  They also must play at Cincinnati in early October.  They face Bowling Green on the road but get Ohio and Kent State at home.  Miami must be considered a serious contender, but the rushing attack must top 100 yards per game for the first time in four seasons.  Dysert needs some help.

 

Team	Ohio Bobcats
Head Coach	Frank Solich
Colors	Green and White
City	Athens, OH
2011 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	10-4
PiRate Rating	94.8
National Rating	76
Vintage Rating	98
National Rating	72
2012 Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	10-3*

* Picked to win MAC Championship Game

 

Frank Solich went 58-19 (75.3%) in six seasons at Nebraska, and he was shown the door.  In the eight years since, the Cornhuskers have yet to win 75% of their games in any season.  Solich came to Athens, and in his time here, he has guided the Bobcats to multiple MAC East titles and trips to four bowls.  Ohio owns 27 wins in the last three seasons, and Solich’s team should continue to dominate in the league again this season.

 

Quarterback Tyler Tettleton returns for his junior season after completing 64% of his passes for better than 3,300 yards and 28 touchdowns as a sophomore.  Tettleton also ran for 658 yards and 10 scores.

 

The rest of the skill positions need a quick infusion of new talent.  A two-headed monster appears to be set at running back.  Ryan Boykin will be backed up by Beau Blankenship.  The duo teamed for 897 rushing yards in reserve roles last year.

 

There could be a slight drop-off in the passing game with the graduation of the top two receivers, but Donte Foster and tight end Jordan Thompson form a solid nucleus here.

 

The offensive line has no equals in the league, especially inside. 

 

Ohio has one of the top three defensive lines and defensive backfields in the league, and if the linebacking unit can develop and improve, Ohio will run away with the league title this year.

 

The top stud on this side of the ball is cornerback Travis Carrie, who intercepted four passes and knocked away 13 others in 2011.  He is also one of the top punt returners. 

 

The four starters in the trenches include all-league end Tremayne Scot who recorded eight tackles behind the line last year. 

 

Ohio gets the first crack at Penn State this year, facing off in Happy Valley on September 1.  The Bobcats could contend for the upset.  If they happen to pull it off, they could be 7-0 when they face Miami at the end of October.  If they should happen to be 8-0 after that game, they could even run the table.  We can see this team winning no fewer than 10 games if they stay healthy.  We bet the folks in Lincoln, Nebraska would love to see their beloved team win 80% of their games for the first time since Solich was coaching there.

 

West Division

Team	Ball State Cardinals
Head Coach	Pete Lembo
Colors	Red and White
City	Muncie, IN
2011 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	6-6
PiRate Rating	88.6
National Rating	99
Vintage Rating	88
National Rating	106
2012 Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	3-9

 

Ball State has improved from two to four to six wins in the last three seasons.  Can they get to eight wins this year?  We believe that is highly unlikely.  The Cardinals suffered heavy losses on the defensive side of the ball, including seven of their top 11 tacklers from a year ago.  Additionally, this year’s schedule is tough; BSU will be an underdog in all four non-conference games (at Clemson, at Indiana, South Florida, and at Army).

 

The defensive line returns just one starter.  Nathan Ollie earned 2^nd team All-MAC honors at tackle last year with six sacks and 10 total tackles for loss.  A couple of transfers from big time programs will try to plug the holes.

 

Middle linebacker Travis Freeman returns after finishing second in the league with 134 tackles.  He too earned 2^nd team All-MAC accolades.

 

There are questions in the defensive backfield with limited experience returning at safety. 

 

Ball State gave up 35 points and 510 total yards per game last year (three times giving up over 600 yards in a game).  Those numbers will not win football games, even in the wide-open MAC.

 

BSU finished 4-4 in the conference and 6-6 overall even though they gained 130.9 fewer yards per game.  That’s because they won five of their games by 2, 3, 3, 4, and 7 points and lost games by 30, 42, and 56 points.

 

Keith Wenning returns at quarterback for the Cardinals, after he broke single season records in Muncie as a sophomore.  Wenning completed 64% of his passes for 2,786 yards and 19 touchdowns.

 

Wenning won’t have his top two receivers from a year ago, but BSU does return an all-conference caliber receiver in Jamill Smith, who should see his receptions rise from 40 to as much as 70 this season.

 

Jahwan Edwards rushed for close to 800 yards last year, and with a solid offensive line, he could threaten the 1,000 yard mark this year.  The offensive line is actually the biggest asset on this team.

 

Ball State could increase its offensive production to 28 points and 400 total yards this year, but the Cardinals are going to take a step back in the won-loss record.

 

Team	Central Michigan Chippewas
Head Coach	Dan Enos
Colors	Maroon and Gold
City	Mt. Pleasant, MI
2011 Record
Conference	2-6
Overall	3-9
PiRate Rating	89.3
National Rating	96
Vintage Rating	91
National Rating	100
2012 Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8

 

The media gives CMU little respect this year (except for one voter that placed them first in the MAC West).  Third year coach Dan Enos welcomes back 16 starters this year, and this team did upset conference champion Northern Illinois last year.

 

The Chippewas have an excellent quarterback to contribute to the MAC riches at this position.  Ryan Radcliff passed for nearly 275 yards per game last year, picking up 25 touchdowns.  He welcomes the return of four of his top receivers from a year ago, including a game-changer in Titus Davis.  Davis averaged close to 19 yards on his 40 receptions a year ago, and defenses will not be able to concentrate their efforts on stopping him.  Cody Wilson is likely to catch 55-60 passes this year, while Courtney Williams and Jeery Harris provide quality at the other wideour.

 

No back stood out last year, so new starter Anthony Garland will not be much of a step back at this position.  In fact, once Garland began to see more action last season, he proved to be the best runner on the team.  Look for him to double his yardage (378) of a year ago.

 

The defense is not as talented as the offense, but that can be said for at least half if not more of the MAC.  CMU yielded 33.3 points and 428.8 yards per game last year, and those numbers should improve ever so slightly this season.

 

The one concern here is at linebacker where only one starter returns.  Shamari Benton is a serviceable middle linebacker, but he won’t appear on any all-conference watch lists.

 

The secondary is the strongest unit on this side of the ball, with safeties Jahleel Addae and Avery Cunningham returning after finishing one-two in tackles with 186 combined stops.  Addae picked off four passes last year and made the All-MAC first team.

 

The defensive line did not do its job of getting to the quarterback last year, and CMU recorded just 1.1 sacks per game.  Tackle Matt Losiniscki led the Chips with just two sacks.

 

CMU has two important home games back-to-back in mid-October.  They host Navy on a Friday night and Ball State the following week.  If they win those two games, then the Chippewas will see their record improve by a game or two.  If they lose both games, then Coach Dan Enos will be on the hot seat, because CMU will suffer through its third consecutive three-win season, or worse.

 

Team	Eastern Michigan Eagles
Head Coach	Ron English
Colors	Dark Green and White
City	Ypsilanti, MI
2011 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	6-6
PiRate Rating	87.2
National Rating	103
Vintage Rating	90
National Rating	102
2012 Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	6-6

 

Ron English looks like a miracle worker in Ypsilanti after moving east a couple dozen miles from Ann Arbor in 2009.  His Eagles have improved from zero to two to six wins in his first three seasons, and if the breaks can go their way, EMU could sneak into bowl eligibility this season with a much-improved offense.

 

EMU’s contribution to the league’s exceptional QB talent pool is Alex Gillett.  Gillett passed for just a little over 1,500 yards last year, but English is from the old school and prefers to grind it out on the ground.  The Eagles ran the ball nearly 75% of the time last year.  Gillett’s yards per pass attempt (7.6) placed him in the middle of the pack in the league.

 

Gillett has a big target at his stead in tight end Garrett Hoskins.  At 6-2 and 255, Hoskins can cause matchup problems for safeties when he splits the seams in the middle zones.  His route running on play-action helped delay run support by opposing secondaries.

 

Gillett led the team in rushing with 736 yards (factoring out sacks, he rushed for more than 850).  Three other backs that topped 500 rushing yards return this year, so the Eagles will pound the ball on the ground with efficiency once again.  Look for EMU to rush for 225-250 yards per game.

 

An improved offensive line returns all five starters from a year ago with quality talent at every position.

 

The defense improved by leaps and bounds last season, chopping the points allowed by almost 20 and yards allowed by more than 100.  There are concerns in the defensive line, where three starters must be replaced, including the top pass rusher. 

 

The second line of defense will be spearheaded by outside linebacker Justin Cudworth, who led the Eagles with 83 tackles last season.

 

English must come up with two new starting safeties, but he welcomes the return of both starting cornerbacks from a year ago.  Marlon Pollard and Marcell Rose teamed up for 13 passes defended, with Pollard landing on the All-MAC third team.

 

The Eagles have a big special teams’ weapon in Demarius Reed.  Punters will try to punt away from him, and even when he cannot return punts, he will help give the Eagles better field position by forcing punts to angle toward the sidelines.

 

EMU has a critical non-league tilt at home with Army in October.  They must win this game to have a shot at bowl eligibility, because they definitely will lose two other non-MAC games playing on the road against Purdue and Michigan State.  In league play, they have winnable games against Ball State, Kent State, and Central Michigan.  They need to take care of business in these three and then pull off one upset to become bowl eligible.  Last year, the Eagles shocked Western Michigan by winning as a double-digit underdog, so this team is more than capable of getting a sixth win.  Unlike last year, when they defeated two FCS schools to finish with six wins, if they replicate the record this year, they will be eligible to bowl.

 

Team	Northern Illinois Huskies
Head Coach	Dave Doeren
Colors	Red and Black
City	Dekalb, IL
2011 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	11-3
PiRate Rating	92.1
National Rating	85
Vintage Rating	92
National Rating	94
2012 Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-4

 

Coach Dave Doeren took over the reins in DeKalb after moving 70 miles south from Madison, Wisconsin, where he proved to be an excellent defensive coordinator for the Badgers.  In his first year as the leader of his own team, Doeren merely won the conference championship and the GoDaddy.com bowl to finish with an identical 11-3 record left by prior coach Jerry Kill.

 

NIU is not the clear-cut favorite in the tough West Division, namely because they are one of a handful of league schools without an experienced quarterback.  Chandler Harnish (led team with 1,379 yards rushing and passed for 3,216 yards) will be tough to replace, and the fact that only three starters return to this side of the ball will make it all the more difficult for new starter Jordan Lynch.

 

The Huskies have to start over at running back as well.  Trying to replace Jasmin Hopkins and his 956 rushing yards will be Akeem Daniels.  Daniels actually averaged a little more per attempt than Hopkins.  Leighton Settle and Jamal Womble will provide depth.

 

The news is a little better at receiver with the return of leading pass-catcher Martel Moore as well as two other key players in Perez Ashford and Da’Ron Brown.

 

With the unfortunate leg fracture to guard Logan Pegram, nary a starter returns to the offensive line, leaving this unit with just two career starts.  This will force the offense to bog down against the better teams on the schedule, and it would not surprise us if the Huskies fall to about 25-27 points per game after averaging better than 38 last year.

 

NIU can still compete in the MAC this year because the defense is going to be much improved.  The Huskies won the league title despite surrendering more than 30 points and 400 yards per game.  Of course, NIU gave up 60 points to Toledo and still won the game!

 

When the defense lines up at Soldier Field in game one, ten players will have starting experience.  The defensive line is the best in the division.  Ends Alan Baxter and Sean Progar teamed for 11 sacks and 23 ½ total tackles for loss.

 

The back seven are not quite as talented as the front four, but neither the linebackers nor the defensive backs should be considered liabilities.  Linebacker might be a concern, but Tyrone Clark could help solve the riddle if he can shake off the rust after missing last season.

 

The four returning starters in the back line teamed for 31 passes defended with nine interceptions.  Being a year older bodes well for this unit and when combined with a stronger pass rush, expect NIU’s pass defense to be better this year.

 

Northern Illinois will contend for the MAC West title, and they could repeat even with two conference losses.  This division is deep with talent, so don’t expect the Huskies to win 11 games for the third consecutive season.

 

Team	Toledo Rockets
Head Coach	Matt Campbell
Colors	Midnight Blue and Gold
City	Toledo, OH
2011 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-4
PiRate Rating	93.6
National Rating	79
Vintage Rating	94
National Rating	88
2012 Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	6-6

 

What can you say about a football team that at times scored more points than its basketball team?  Toledo looked more like an Arena League team last year.  The Rockets gave up 63 points in back-to-back games and almost won both games!

 

Overall, UT’s offense scored more than 42 points per game and gained more than 480 yards per game last year.  Down the stretch, the Rockets averaged an incredible 558 yards per game (277 rushing and 281 passing)!

 

The Rockets could regress by 50-75 yards per game this year, because the offense suffered heavy graduation losses.  Fortunately,  both quarterbacks Terrance Owens and Austin Dantin return.  The duo will continue to split reps after teaming for better than 3,400 passing yards and 33 touchdowns.  As crazy as this league is, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Coach Matt Campbell finds a way to get both passers into the game for a surprise formation.

 

Running back David Fluellen is expected to be the new starter and keep the Toledo ground game rolling along, but he has been nursing a foot injury in preseason practice.  This could become a concern if he isn’t ready to go in September.

 

Toledo lost a lot of pass catching talent, but they had so much depth here last year, there is enough talent returning to keep the passing game strong.  Bernard Reedy is one of those diminutive, speedy threats that defenses hate to face.  He grabbed 40 passes last year and averaged 19 yards per catch with nine touchdowns.  The rest of the receiving corps is inexperienced but talented.

 

There is rebuilding to do in the offensive trenches.  Two starters return, and both earned honors last year, but this unit will give up more sacks in 2012.

 

Defense has been an afterthought at the Glass Bowl in recent years.  UT has given up an average of 34 points and 400 yards per game for the past five seasons.  With only three of the top 11 tacklers returning this year, it could be another rocky road for the Rockets.

 

If there is a team strength on this side of the ball, it is at linebacker.  Dan Molls and Robert Bell teamed for 148 stops and eight tackles for loss in 2011. 

 

Up front, the line relies on lone returning starter T. J. Fatinikun at end.  He is the leading returning sack man, but he only registered 2 ½ sacks.

 

The secondary returns just one starter, and with all the fantastic quarterbacks in this league, expect UT to be lit up again in 2012.

 

The schedule could be detrimental to the Rockets’ chances this year.  Opening on the road at Arizona and Wyoming, UT then hosts Bowling Green.  It isn’t unlikely, that Toledo could be 0-3 when they host Coastal Carolina in game four.  They then must play at Western Michigan, so a 1-4 start is possible.  If they are 2-3 instead, then Toledo should rebound to reach bowl eligibility.

 

Team	Western Michigan Broncos
Head Coach	Bill Cubit
Colors	Brown and Gold
City	Kalamazoo, MI
2011 Record
Conference	5-3
Overall	7-6
PiRate Rating	94.6
National Rating	77
Vintage Rating	96
National Rating	79
2012 Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-4

 

Western Michigan has been close several times, but the Broncos have not won the MAC West Division since 2000, and they have not won a MAC Championship Game.  That all could change this year, but only if Coach Bill Cubit can find a way to stop all the great passers in this league.

 

WMU surrendered 29 points and 435 yards per game last year, giving up 117 points to the other two top division contenders (Northern Illinois and Toledo).

 

The defensive line has a pair of quality ends in Freddie Bishop and Paul Hazel, who teamed for eight sacks and 14 ½ total stops for loss.  The loss of tackle Drew Nowak and his league-leading 20 ½ total tackles for loss will be hard to make up, and the Broncos will rely on their defensive tackles to plug gaps and keep blockers away from the linebackers.

 

WMU employs a new 3-3-5 defense, and linebacker is the biggest problem.  Hopefully, an infusion of talent from the Juco ranks will help improve this unit.

 

The back line features the leading returning tackler in Johnnie Simon.  Simon filled up the stat sheet last year with 114 tackles, 3 ½ sacks, 10 ½ total stops for loss, and nine passes defended.

 

If the defense can trim the points allowed to 25, then WMU stands a terrific chance of winning the West.  The reason for this is the Broncos have the best quarterback in a league full of great quarterbacks.

 

Alex Carder could be the next NFL star to matriculate from the MAC.  In his junior season, Carder completed 65.7% of his passes for 3,873 yards and 31 touchdowns.  If he remains healthy, he will more than likely top 4,000 yards through the air (he missed one game last year).

 

Carder will sleep comfortably this season knowing he has a talented, experienced, and deep offensive line protecting him.  Added to four returning starters up front is the transfer of former Michigan State guard John Deyo.

 

The only question on this side of the ball is at receiver, after the Broncos graduated their top three receivers from a year ago, including Jordan White and his 140 receptions, 1,911 yards, and 17 touchdowns.  What’s left is a deep unit of better than average but not spectacular receivers.

 

At running back, Tevin Drake leads a quartet of backs that should all see action.  Drake is more of an all-around threat as a runner and pass catcher.  Antoin Scriven is a between the tackles north-south runner who can pick up three yards on third and two.  Brian Fields and Dareyon Chance are speedsters that can get to the corner and pick up a lot of yards if there is daylight.  This quartet will improve upon last year’s rushing numbers.  Look for WMU to top 130 yards per game on the ground and average better than four yards per attempt.

 

One concern is with the kicking game.  Freshmen could start at placekicker and punter after the Broncos lost a pair of quality kickers.

 

The non-conference slate is manageable.  It isn’t impossible for WMU to go 4-0 against Illinois, Eastern Illinois, Minnesota, and Connecticut, although we believe they will split these four games.  The Broncos benefit in the conference schedule, as they now host Northern Illinois and Toledo after having to play them both on the road in 2011.  Road games against Central Michigan and Kent State could be tricky, but Coach Bill Cubit should finally get the monkey off his back and advance to the MAC Championship Game.

 

Coming Monday, August 20: The Mountain West Conference.  There could be some surprises this season.

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 10 Update

Two Newest Dance Participants

 

Northeast Conference Championship

Long Island  85  Robert Morris  82 ot

 

In what may have been the most exciting championship game of the season, the home-standing Blackbirds and visiting Colonials exchanged leads all night.  Two missed three-point shots in the final seconds, one at the buzzer, was all that prevented this game from going to double overtime.

 

LIU opened with a cold shooting hand, and RMU took the lead.  Once the Blackbirds started hitting their shots, this became a game of runs.  LIU had the hot hand in the second half, but RMU kept getting enough offensive rebounds to keep the Colonials in the game.

 

Jamal Olasewere had a game-high 31 points to go with 11 rebounds; he scored seven points in the overtime.  Team leader Julian Boyd was held to just seven points, but the Blackbirds had excellent showings off the bench.  Jason Brickman tossed in 15 points and dished out eight big assists, while Kenny Onyechi added 13 points.

 

Russell Johnson and Velton Jones teamed up for 42 points for the losers.

 

LIU will be a formidable opponent for their favored foe in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.  Their style of play could cause severe matchup problems for a bigger, slower team, especially if that team is not the strongest ball-handling team.  If they were to be bracketed against BYU in the first round, it would be the thriller of the first round. 

 

Big Sky Conference Championship

Northern Colorado  65  Montana  60

 

This game was anticlimactic following the NEC Championship.  Montana kept the pace slow, and the Grizzlies shot out to a 7-0 lead in the first two and a half minutes.  UNC made a run to take its first lead at 17-16 on a three-point shot by Tate Unruh.

 

The lead switched hands several times the remainder of the half with the buzzer sending the teams to the locker tied at 31-31.

 

Montana maintained a small lead for most of the second half, until star guard Devon Beitzel took over.  His three-pointer at the 4:56 mark gave the Bears the lead for good.  Beitzel continued shooting and then forced Montana to foul him, and the Bears hung on to win.

 

Beitzel did not score until late in the first half, but the Big Sky Conference’s leading scorer finished with 27 points.

 

Montana center Brian Qvale hit a layup with 16 seconds remaining to cut the lead to 62-60, but following two made Beitzel free throws, Art Steward committed a turnover to seal the game. 

 

Steward led the Grizzlies with 16 points, while Qvale added 11.

 

Northern Colorado will be one of those teams that will be glad just to be there at the NCAA Tournament.  The Bears should make a quick exit in game one, unless they are chosen as one of the First Four #16 seeds.

 

13 Automatic Qualifiers To Date

Team	Conference	Record
Arkansas-Little Rock	Sunbelt	19-16
Belmont	Atlantic South	30-4
Butler	Horizon	23-9
Gonzaga	West Coast	24-9
Indiana State	Missouri Valley	20-13
Long Island	Northeast	27-4
Morehead State	Ohio Valley	24-9
Northern Colorado	Big Sky	21-10
Oakland	Summit	25-9
Old Dominion	Colonial	27-6
St. Peter’s	Metro Atlantic	20-13
UNC-Asheville	Big South	19-13
Wofford	Southern	21-12

 

No Championship Games Are Scheduled For Thursday

 

Wednesday’s Results/Thursday’s Schedule

All Times EST

Atlantic Coast Conference—Greensboro, NC

1^st Round

#8 Virginia (16-14)  vs. #9 Miami (Fla) (18-13)  12 Noon

#5 Boston College (19-11)  vs. #12 Wake Forest (8-23)  Approx. 2:15 PM

#7 Maryland (18-13)  vs. #10 North Carolina State (15-15)  7 PM  ESPN2

#6 Virginia Tech (19-10)  vs. #11 Georgia Tech (13-17)  Approx. 9:15 PM

 

Big 12 Conference—Kansas City

1^st Round

#9 Oklahoma State  53  #8 Nebraska  52

#5 Colorado  77  #12 Iowa State  75

#10 Oklahoma  84  #7 Baylor  67

#6 Missouri  88  #11 Texas Tech  84

 

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Oklahoma State (19-12)  vs. #1 Kansas (29-2)  12:30 PM on ESPN2

#5 Colorado (20-12)  vs. #4 Kansas State (22-9)  3PM

#10 Oklahoma (14-17) vs. #2 Texas (25-6)  7 PM

#6 Missouri (23-9) vs. #3 Texas A&M (23-7)  9:30 PM

 

Big East Conference—New York City

2^nd Round

#9 Connecticut  79  #8 Georgetown 62

#5 St. John’s  65  #13 Rutgers 63

#7 Cincinnati  87  #15 South Florida 61

#11 Marquette  67  #6 West Virginia  61

 

Quarterfinal Round

#9 Connecticut (23-9)  vs. #1 Pittsburgh (27-4)  12 Noon  ESPN

#5 St. John’s (21-10)  vs. #4 Syracuse (25-6)  Approx. 2:15 PM  ESPN

#7 Cincinnati (25-7)  vs. #2 Notre Dame (25-5)  7 PM  ESPN

#11 Marquette (20-13)  vs. #3 Louisville (23-8)  Approx. 9:15 PM  ESPN

 

Big Ten Conference—Indianapolis

1st Round

#8 Northwestern (17-12)  vs. #9 Minnesota (17-13)  2:30 PM  ESPN2

#7 Michigan State (17-13)  vs. #10 Iowa (11-19)  4:50 PM  ESPN2

#6 Penn State (16-13)  vs. #11 Indiana (12-19)  7:30 PM  Big Ten Network

 

Big West Conference—Anaheim

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Long Beach State (20-10)  vs. #8 UC-Irvine (13-18)  3 PM

#4 Pacific (16-14)  vs. #5 UC-Santa Barbara (15-13)  5:20 PM

#2 Cal Poly (15-14)  vs. #7 UC-Riverside (11-18)  9 PM

#3 Cal State Northridge (13-17)  vs. #6 Cal State Fullerton (11-19)  11:20 PM

 

Conference USA—El Paso, TX

1^st Round

#8 East Carolina  78  #9 Central Florida  60

#5 Southern Miss.  63  #12 Tulane  47

#6 Marshall  97  #11 Houston  87

#10 Rice  58  #7 S M U  57

 

Quarterfinal Round

#8 East Carolina (17-14)  vs. #1 U A B  (22-7)  1PM  CBSC

#5 Southern Miss (22-9)  vs. #4 Memphis (22-9)  3:30 PM  CBSC

#6 Marshall (22-10)  vs. #3 U T E P  (23-8)  7:30 PM  CBSC

#10 Rice (14-17)  vs. #2 Tulsa (18-12)  10 PM  CBSC

 

M A C—Cleveland

Quarterfinal Round

#7 Bowling Green (14-18)  vs. #2 Western Michigan (19-11)  12 Noon

#6 Akron (20-12)  vs. #3 Miami (O) (16-15)  2:30 PM

#8 Buffalo (18-12)  vs. #1 Kent State (21-10)  7 PM

#5 Ohio U (18-14)  vs. #4 Ball State (18-12)  9:30 PM

 

M E A C—Winston-Salem, NC

Note: The MEAC has a unique scheduling format which rewards its top three seeds.  Thus, yesterday, there were both first round and quarterfinal round games scheduled.  The quarterfinal round concludes today.

 

1^st Round

#6 Norfolk State  68  #11 Howard 53

 

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Bethune-Cookman  66  #9 South Carolina State 50

#2 Hampton  77  #10 Maryland-Eastern Shore  55

 

Quarterfinal Round Continues

#4 Morgan State (15-13)  vs. #5 North Carolina A&T (15-16)  8 PM

#3 Coppin State (16-13)  vs. #6 Norfolk State (11-19)  7 PM

 

Mountain West Conference—Las Vegas

1^st Round

#9 T C U  70  #8 Wyoming  61

 

Quarterfinal Round

#9 T C U (11-21)  vs. #1 Brigham Young (28-3)  3 PM

#5 New Mexico (20-11)  vs. #4 Colorado State (19-11)  5:30 PM

#7 Utah (13-17)  vs. #2 San Diego State (29-2)  9 PM

#6 Air Force (15-14)  vs. #3 U N L V  (23-7)  11:30 PM

 

Pac-10 Conference—Los Angeles

1^st Round

#9 Oregon State 69  #8 Stanford 67

#7 Oregon 76  #10 Arizona State 69

 

Quarterfinal Round

#4 Southern Cal (18-13)  vs. #5 California (17-13)  3 PM  Fox Sports

#1 Arizona (25-6)  vs. #9 Oregon State (11-19)  5:30 PM  Fox Sports

#2 U C L A  (22-9)  vs. #7 Oregon (15-16)  9 PM  Fox Sports

#3 Washington (20-10)  vs. #6 Washington State (19-11)  11:30 PM  Fox Sports

 

Southeastern Conference—Atlanta

1^st Round

#4E  Georgia (20-10)  vs. #5W  Auburn (11-19)  1 PM

#3W  Ole Miss (19-12)  vs. #6E  South Carolina (14-15)  3:30 PM

#4W  Arkansas (18-12)  vs. #5E  Tennessee (18-13)  7:30 PM

#3W  Vanderbilt (21-9)  vs. #6E L S U  (11-20)  10 PM

 

Southland Conference—Katy, TX

Quarterfinal Round

#1 McNeese State 61  #8 Nicholls State 54

#4 Texas State 72  #5 Southeastern Louisiana 68

#7 Texas-San Antonio 97  #2 Northwestern State (LA) 96

#3 Sam Houston State 61  #6 Stephen F. Austin 45

 

Semifinal Round

#3 Sam Houston State (18-12)  vs. #7 Texas-San Antonio (17-13)  7 PM

#1 McNeese State (20-10)  vs. #4 Texas State (16-15)  9:30 PM

 

S W A C–Garland, TX

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Texas Southern 50  #8 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 45

#2 Jackson State 50  #7 Prairie View 38

 

Quarterfinal Round Continues

#3 Mississippi Valley (13-18)  vs. #6 Grambling (10-20)  12:30 PM

#4 Alabama State (14-17)  vs. #5 Alabama A&M (13-14) 9 PM

 

W A C—Las Vegas

1^st Round

#8 San Jose State 75  #5 Hawaii 74

#6 Nevada 90  #7 Fresno State 80

 

2^nd Round

#4 Idaho (18-12)  vs. #8 San Jose State (16-14)  3 PM  ESPNU

#3 New Mexico State (15-16)  vs. #6 Nevada (13-18)  5:30 PM  ESPNU