2022 Conference USA Preview

Conference USA has been the weakest FBS league the last few years, and it looks to be on the verge of getting even weaker.  When the league sponsored its first football season, the football members were Cincinnati, Houston, Louisville, Memphis, South Florida, Southern Miss., Tulane, and UAB.  Over the course of its early years, Central Florida, East Carolina, SMU, TCU, and Tulsa were members.

Of the original teams, only UAB remains, but the Blazers are leaving the league to join the American Athletic Conference in 2023.  Going with UAB will be Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice and UTSA.  Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky almost made the move to the Mid-American Conference.  The league stayed alive by getting Liberty and New Mexico State to come in from the ranks of the independents while inviting current FCS members Jacksonville State and Sam Houston to enter next year.

CUSA lost Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Miss. to the Sun Belt, and thus the league will have just one division of 11 teams this year.  The top two in the conference standings will meet in the Conference Championship Game.

The CUSA Media poll did not record total vote numbers, just first place votes and predicted order of finish.  Here is how the media picked the race in 2022.

Conference USA
		Votes
#	Team	1st Place	Overall
1	UTSA	14
2	UAB	8
3	Western Ky.	0
4	Fla. Atlantic	0
5	North Texas	0
6	UTEP	0
7	Charlotte	0
8	Middle Tenn.	0
9	Louisiana Tech	0
10	Rice	0
11	Fla. Int’l.	0

The opening PiRate Ratings differ minimally.

Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	97.3	97.5	99.1	98.0
W. Kentucky	96.4	96.0	99.0	97.1
U T S A	97.1	95.3	96.6	96.4
North Texas	88.6	87.8	89.9	88.8
U T E P	86.9	86.4	87.1	86.8
Middle Tennessee	85.6	86.7	86.8	86.4
Florida Atlantic	85.3	87.2	85.6	86.0
Charlotte	82.9	83.9	82.3	83.0
Rice	81.2	80.6	80.1	80.6
Louisiana Tech	80.2	81.9	78.7	80.3
Florida Int’l.	67.0	70.1	65.3	67.5
CUSA	86.2	86.7	86.4	86.4

If you are new to the PiRate Ratings, there are three different power ratings and an average of the three.  All three ratings, PiRate, Mean, and Bias, are calculated using the same statistical data but with different algorithmic formulas.  The PiRate and Bias are closely related, while the Mean is somewhat different.  Each of the three different ratings accentuate certain statistical events that have proven at times to be more essential than the other two.  Thus, in some years, the PiRate has more success.  In some years, the Bias has more success, and in some years the Mean has more success.
The PiRate Ratings are meant to predict the next week’s games on the schedule, so using them to predict the entire season’s results is unwarranted.  Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records prior to the postseason.

Team	CUSA	Overall
Western Kentucky *	7-1	11-2
UAB	7-1	9-4
UTSA	7-1	8-4
UTEP	6-2	8-4
North Texas	4-4	5-7
Middle Tenn.	4-4	5-7
Florida Atlantic	3-5	4-8
Charlotte	3-5	4-8
Louisiana Tech	2-6	3-9
Rice	1-7	2-10
Florida Int’l.	0-8	1-11

* Western Kentucky picked to defeat UAB in the CUSA Championship Game

Note: UAB head coach Bill Clark retired due to health issues this Summer, and offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent has been named interim head coach.

Coming tomorrow: The Mid-American Conference

Conference USA Preview

If you are new to the PiRate Ratings, we have three different ratings, which are basically three different algorithms calculated using identical data.  The PiRate and Bias are closely correlated.  The Mean is a bit of an outlier.  The differences in the three ratings’ algorithms are designed to catch different outcomes in a season.  In some years, trends make one rating better than the others.  In some years, all three ratings move in lockstep and appear to be nearly identical.  Additionally, the process for updating the three different ratings differs for each one.  The PiRate has the most conservative updating formula, while the Bias has the most liberal updating formula.  The Mean has an average updating formula.

Wow!  It feels like last week, Alabama was toying with Ohio State to win the 2020-21 FBS National Championship!  If it feels like August 13th came about two months quicker than normal, maybe it has more to do with the fact that updating the PiRate Ratings was a much more involved process this Spring and Summer.  The issues with Covid totally messed up the 2020 season, and the new Transfer Portal led to players leaving school as late as July and waiting until the end of July to choose their new school, so updating the ratings became a two-fold process.  The old way of updating the ratings took place between Memorial Day Weekend and Mid-July.  Then, from Mid-July to last week, we had to perform a new update where, in essence, we had to treat about 165 of the top transfers as lost starters to their old team and as new starters to their new team.  

These 165 players represented 4293 basis points, or to put it into something meaningful to you, 4293 basis points in our ratings’ algorithms account for about 61.3 power rating points, give or take a point or two.  82 different FBS teams had a gain or loss of basis points from at least one player move involving these teams.  48 teams did not have a gain or loss of basis points, with 47 having no meaningful player movement, while the 48th team had a net of 0 basis points from their gain of a player and loss of a player where the players were basically of equal talent.

If you follow our ratings, you probably know that our 130 teams always average 100.0, as 100.0 is par.  When you see a team ranked at 111.3, that means they are 11.3 points better than the average team.  If a team is ranked at 92.8, that means they are 7.2 points weaker than the average team.  Thus, if there are 130 teams, and 100 is par, the grand total of team ratings must be 13,000.  So, if 82 teams had their ratings altered by a total of 61.3 points, the other 48 teams had to have their ratings altered as well so that the total was 13,000.  Those 61.3 points were not all in the same direction.  32.6 points came from improvement, while 28.7 points came from weakening.  The grand total of -3.9 points had to be distributed to the other 48 teams.  Basically 39 teams lost one tenth of a point, while the best nine teams of the 48 stayed stat.

Today, we begin previewing our first FBS conference.  Coming in at 11th place (last place) among the conferences is Conference USA.  Once considered an improved version of the Sun Belt Conference, CUSA has fallen several notches behind their Southern Group of 5 rival.  

In July, CUSA held its annual preseason meeting, and the media voted their preseason picks.  Here it is:

2021 CUSA Football Preseason Poll

EAST DIVISION

1. Marshall (17)
2. Florida Atlantic (6)
3. WKU (1)
4. Charlotte
5. Middle Tennessee
6. FIU
7. Old Dominion

WEST DIVISION

1. UAB (15)
2. UTSA (9)
3. Louisiana Tech
4. Southern Miss
5. Rice
6. North Texas
7. UTEP

How does this compare to the PiRate Ratings?  Take a look at our preseason ratings.

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	93.4	93.4	93.6	93.4
Florida Atlantic	86.7	88.6	87.8	87.7
Middle Tennessee	83.4	83.1	84.7	83.7
Western Kentucky	81.7	83.6	82.8	82.7
Charlotte	78.8	79.6	80.2	79.5
Florida Int’l.	77.9	78.9	80.1	79.0
Old Dominion	71.2	71.9	71.2	71.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	95.4	95.2	94.9	95.2
U T S A	94.0	94.5	93.4	93.9
Rice	87.0	87.1	87.3	87.1
Louisiana Tech	86.9	87.4	85.2	86.5
Southern Miss.	83.3	85.2	84.5	84.4
North Texas	82.1	81.7	81.4	81.7
U T E P	76.3	77.2	74.4	76.0
CUSA Averages	84.1	84.8	84.4	84.4

While the PiRate Ratings are designed only to estimate the result of each team’s next game, we issue predicted standings every year just for fun.  Just because a team is ranked ahead of another, it doesn’t mean we are predicting them to win.  Our ratings have built in alterations to every team’s power rating based on depth and experience.  A team lacking depth may see their power rating fall as the season goes along, and we perceive that these poor depth teams will begin to show fatigue.  Likewise, a team with a lot of talent but low experience may see their power rating rise as the season goes along, and we perceive that these lesser experienced players gain enough experience for the game to slow down to them.

Here are our predicted won-loss records for CUSA.

CUSA East	Conf.	Overall
Marshall	6-2	8-5
Florida Atlantic	6-2	8-4
Florida Int’l.	4-4	5-7
Western Kentucky	4-4	5-7
Middle Tennessee	3-5	5-7
Old Dominion	0-8	1-11
CUSA West	Conf.	Overall
UTSA	7-1	10-3 *
UAB	7-1	8-4
Rice	6-2	7-5
Louisiana Tech	6-2	7-5
Southern Miss.	3-5	4-8
UTEP	1-7	3-9
UTSA picked to win CUSA Championship Game

2017 Conference USA Preview

It’s day two of our annual college football conference previews.  Conference USA featured a lot of wide open, pass-it-all-over-the-field football last year, and in some weeks, perusing the league’s results left you wondering if this was football or basketball.  As an example, take the two division winners from 2016.  Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech met in the regular season, and then they had a rematch in the CUSA Championship Game.  The first time around Tech beat Western 56-52.  In the rematch, Western won the league title with a 58-44 victory.

Western Kentucky lost their offensive mastermind, when former coach Jeff Brohm took the Purdue job.  Will new Hilltopper head man Mike Sanford be able to keep the Toppers scoring 40 points per game?  The former Notre Dame offensive coordinator may be a tad more conservative in his play-calling, so we expect WKU will score less often this year.

However, the arrival of two new big-name coaches could add some points and excitement on the scoreboard in the Sunshine State.  Butch Davis is the new leader at Florida International, and Lane Kiffin takes over at Florida Atlantic.  A former CUSA coach returns to the league after a two-year hiatus without ever changing schools.  Welcome back UAB to college football.  Coach Bill Clark stayed loyal to the Blazers, and when UAB returns to the field on September 2 against Alabama A&M, the Blazers will have the same coach that guided the team to a very respectable 6-6 record in 2014.

Here is how the CUSA  media voted in the preseason poll.

CUSA-East
#	Team	1st Pl.
1	Western Kentucky	20
2	Middle Tennessee	4
3	Old Dominion	3
4	Marshall	1
5	Florida Atlantic	0
6	Florida Int’l	0
7	Charlotte	0
CUSA-West
#	Team	1st Pl.
1	Louisiana Tech	20
2	UTSA	7
3	Southern Miss.	1
4	North Texas	0
5	Rice	0
6	UTEP	0
7	UAB	0
Total Votes Not Released

The preseason PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings believe the CUSA race will be exciting and closer than last year.

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
W. Kentucky	99.8	97.3	101.6	99.6
Old Dominion	90.9	93.9	91.4	92.1
Middle Tennessee	90.5	91.6	91.4	91.2
Florida Int’l.	84.0	83.9	85.2	84.4
Florida Atlantic	82.5	86.1	83.6	84.1
Marshall	81.9	83.8	82.7	82.8
Charlotte	74.4	77.6	74.9	75.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	91.3	93.1	93.5	92.6
Louisiana Tech	90.2	92.0	91.1	91.1
Southern Miss.	84.3	86.1	84.2	84.8
N. Texas	80.5	82.1	80.4	81.0
Rice	80.1	81.0	80.8	80.6
U T E P	74.8	79.3	76.1	76.8
UAB	63.7	69.2	65.9	66.3
CUSA Averages	89.9	92.1	91.0	91.0

Here are our not-so-scientific predictions for the league races, and the bowl projections.

Conference USA Projected Standings
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
East Division
Old Dominion	7-1	10-3	Bahamas
W. Kentucky	6-2	9-3	St. Petersburg
Middle Tennessee	6-2	7-5	New Orleans
Florida Atlantic	5-3	6-6	[Armed Forces]
Florida Int’l.	3-5	4-8
Marshall	2-6	3-9
Charlotte	1-7	2-10
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
West Division
Louisiana Tech	7-1	9-4	Boca Raton
U T S A	7-1	9-3	Heart of Dallas
Southern Miss.	6-2	8-4	New Mexico
N. Texas	2-6	3-9
U T E P	2-6	2-10
UAB	1-7	2-10
Rice	1-7	1-11
Old Dominion to win CUSA Championship Game
Fla. Atlantic’s bid to the Armed Forces is an at-large bid

Coming tomorrow: The Mountain West Conference–Will Boise St. return to the top, or will the Broncos look up at last year’s surprise winner Wyoming or Colorado St.?  Can San Diego St. continue to dominate in the West Division, or will an up and comer like Hawaii knock the Aztecs off their throne?

 

 

 

 

2017 College Football Season Previews Premiere Tuesday, August 15

Ahoy, Mateys!  Come aboard the PiRate Ship for the 2017-18 College Football Season.  The PiRates have set sail for the season, and we hope we sail on smooth waters all year.

Beginning, Tuesday, August 15, 2017, in the afternoon in the Eastern Daylight Time Zone (after 18 Hours GMT), we will commence with the first of our conference previews for the season, previewing one new conference per day.  As usual, we will begin with the lowest rated conference and continue until we conclude the previews with the top-rated conference.  You may or may not be surprised this year, but there are some changes in the lower end and the upper end of the conference ratings.  For the first time since its inception, the Sun Belt Conference does not tally the lowest overall score.  This year, that dubious distinction befalls Conference USA, and it is CUSA that will be our first preview. EDIT: Our Apologies to CUSA.  It is the Mid-American Conference that came up with the lowest league average, so look for the MAC Preview on Tuesday.

Here is a proposed schedule for our website for the 2017-18 sports season 

Tuesdays: Updated Retrodictive and Predictive Ratings & Spreads for the upcoming College Week

Wednesdays: Updated NFL Ratings and Spreads for the upcoming NFL Week.

Thursdays: Our infamous Money Line Parlay Selections (JUST FOR FUN).

Fridays: Tentatively, we are hoping to bring back our historic Pro Football Simulations this season.  We are looking at simulating an NFL Season using the best teams for 14 franchises between 1950 and 1975.  The 14 NFL teams in existence in 1965 will be used, and we will use the rules from that season, culminating with the NFL Championship Game (and maybe the Playoff Bowl).

Check back Tuesday afternoon (EDT) for the first preview of the PiRate Season.

As usual, our ratings will be part of the Prediction Tracker and the Massey Football Ranking Composite

http://thepredictiontracker.com/

http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

2016 Conference USA Football Ratings Preview

Conference USA has lost a lot of its prestige in recent years because the league has lost several teams with historic football success. At one time, Houston, Tulsa, East Carolina, Cincinnati, Louisville, and Memphis were members of the league.

In current times, CUSA has been able to barely avoid the basement as the weakest conference, maintaining a small edge over the Sun Belt.

The league race should be competitive this year, as three teams appear to be talented enough to contend for the East Division title. The West looks less competitive, but after prohibitive favorite Southern Mississippi, there are two or three teams capable of making a surprise run to the division title.

In the last two years, Marshall and Western Kentucky have been contenders for the automatic New Year’s Six Bowls, but no CUSA team figures to be in contention this year.

Here is a look at the Pre-season media poll. No vote counts were issued or for that matter, the media did not vote on overall conference champion.

CUSA-East
#	Team
1	Middle Tennessee
2	Western Kentucky
3	Marshall
4	Florida Atlantic
5	Florida Int’l.
6	Old Dominion
7	Charlotte
CUSA-West
#	Team
1	Southern Miss.
2	Louisiana Tech
3	Rice
4	UTEP
5	UTSA
6	North Texas

This is how the PiRate Ratings see the divisional races

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	99.1	93.1	99.8	97.3
Marshall	92.3	96.7	94.1	94.4
Middle Tennessee	92.0	94.6	93.1	93.3
Old Dominion	85.7	89.1	86.3	87.0
Florida Atlantic	84.8	88.5	86.7	86.7
Florida Int’l.	82.3	89.5	84.2	85.3
Charlotte	72.9	81.0	74.5	76.2
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Southern Miss.	92.7	92.1	93.8	92.9
Rice	84.7	94.1	85.1	88.0
Louisiana Tech	85.4	88.6	86.0	86.7
UTSA	78.4	87.1	80.9	82.2
UTEP	74.5	79.5	75.8	76.6
North Texas	74.0	76.6	73.7	74.8
CUSA Averages	84.5	88.5	85.7	86.3

 

The PiRate Ratings are best used just to look forward to the next week game schedule.  These ratings cannot really be used to predict won-loss records, so with that caveat, here are the projected won-loss records based on the ratings alone.

Conference USA Projected Standings
East Division	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Marshall	7-1	10-3 *	Hawaii
Western Kentucky	7-1	9-3	New Orleans
Middle Tennessee	6-2	7-5	Heart of Dallas
Florida Int’l.	4-4	6-6	Bowl Eligible
Old Dominion	4-4	6-6	Bowl Eligible
Florida Atlantic	3-5	5-7
Charlotte	0-8	1-11
West Division	Conference	Overall	Bowl
Southern Miss.	8-0	10-3	Boca Raton
Rice	5-3	6-6	New Mexico
Louisiana Tech	4-4	6-6	Arizona
UTSA	3-5	4-8
UTEP	1-7	3-9
North Texas	0-8	1-11
* Marshall to win CUSA Championship Game

Next Preview: Wednesday, August 17–Mid-American Conference Preview

 

 

 

 

 

2015 Conference USA Preview

In today’s second conference preview, we take a look at Conference USA.  Last year, Marshall was oh so close to earning the league’s first ever major bowl bid, but the Thundering Herd dropped a heartbreaker in their final regular season game to Western Kentucky in a game that looked more like basketball on turf.  WKU won that contest 67-66, as both teams topped 700 total yards.

This year, Western Kentucky figures to be the hunted, while Marshall is the hunter.  The two rivals square off in Bowling Green, KY, on the Friday after Thanksgiving, and the winner should represent the East Division in the CUSA Championship Game.

Middle Tennessee has never won the conference title or even the East Division title, but the Blue Raiders have consistently stayed in the upper tier of teams every season.  2015 should be no different: look for MT to become bowl eligible but not compete for the division title.

Coach Ron Turner took over a Florida International program that had fallen on hard times, and he guided the Panthers to a 1-11 finish in his first season.  Last year, FIU improved by three games and suffered four close losses.  Look for the Panthers to win more of those close games this year, and FIU could be the surprise contender in the East.  We expect Turner’s crew to compete for bowl eligibility.

Old Dominion eeked out a .500 record last year by winning its final three games by the narrowest of margins.  Gone is the school’s all-time leading passer and all-time leading receiver, but the Monarchs have enough returning talent and a favorable enough schedule to repeat their 6-6 record.

Florida Atlantic will avoid the cellar this year because there is a new team in the FBS, but the Owls are clearly a bottom feeder this season.  Coach Charlie Partridge did a fine job in year one with very little depth, but he guided the Owls to an upset over WKU and had the Owls at 3-4 before the team collapsed in the final month due to fatigue.  It will be another long year in Boca Raton, but Partridge will eventually turn things around.

Welcome the Charlotte 49ers to the world of FBS football.  Unlike a lot of schools that have a long history at lower classifications, Charlotte is only in its third year of football history.  The 49ers finished 5-6 in both of the two prior seasons, but those five wins came against the likes of Johnson C. Smith, Wesley, Chowan, and Campbell.  The 2015 schedule sees 11 FBS schools including a road trip to Kentucky.  It will be a long season for Coach Brad Lambert’s club, as the 49ers will have to play above their talent level to win more than one game.

In the West Division, Louisiana Tech is the clear-cut favorite, but the Bulldogs are not infallible.  Former Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel will try to be an excellent game-manager for Coach Skip Holtz, but he has an excellent group of receivers and pass-catching backs, so look for his passing statistics to improve.

Rice has been to bowl games for three consecutive seasons, and the Owls should make it four in a row in 2015.  Coach David Bailiff has to rebuild his defense with the loss of seven of his top nine tacklers, but his offense will control the ball and keep the young defense off the field.

Our surprise sleeper team in the West is Southern Miss.  The Golden Eagles tanked when former coach Larry Fedora left for North Carolina, winning just four games in the last three years.  Third year coach Todd Monken’s offense should begin to look more like the Oklahoma State offense where he coached under Mike Gundy.  USM should score more than 25 points per game for the first time since 2011, and the record should be above .500 in the league.  A tough non-conference schedule which includes games against Mississippi State and Nebraska is the only thing that will prevent the Eagles from topping .500 overall.  Still, we see this team breaking even and earning a bowl bid this year.

Sean Kugler’s UTEP Miners were the big surprise in the league last year, going 7-5 in the regular season and earning a trip to the New Mexico Bowl.  This year, UTEP has too many holes to fill on both sides of the ball to repeat their success.  Look for the Miners to see a record reversal.

North Texas has suffered through nine losing seasons in the last 10 years.  Coach Dan McCarney is considered one of the more competent head coaches in the game, but even the most competent coaches cannot win without the horses.  The Mean Green have ponies, especially on the defensive side of the ball, so it will be another long year in Denton.

UT-San Antonio was supposed to contend for the 2014 CUSA West Division Title and the overall league title, and the Roadrunners began the season by trouncing Houston by 20 points.  Then, the season turned sour in San Antonio, as the Roadrunners walked home to a 4-8 record.  The bulk of the experienced roster is now gone, and this team looks like a threat to wear the collar in league play.

Here is how the media voted at the CUSA media days earlier this summer.

Conference USA Media Poll
Pos.	Team
East Division
1	Western Kentucky
2	Marshall
3	Middle Tennessee
4	Florida Atlantic
5	Florida Int’l
6	Old Dominion
7	Charlotte
West Division
1	Louisiana Tech
2	Rice
3	UTEP
4	Southern Miss
5	North Texas
6	UTSA

Here is the media’s preseason all-CUSA team.

Conference USA Preseason All-Conference Team
Offense	Player		School
Quarterback	Brandon Doughty		Western Kentucky
Running Back	Leon Allen		Western Kentucky
Running Back	Kenneth Dixon		Louisiana Tech
Running Back	Devon Johnson		Marshall
Running Back	Aaron Jones		UTEP
Wide Receiver	Jared Dangerfield		Western Kentucky
Wide Receiver	Carlos Harris		North Texas
Wide Receiver	Zach Pascal		Old Dominion
Wide Receiver	Trent Taylor		Louisiana Tech
Tight End	Jonnu Smith		Florida Int’l
Offensive Line	Jordan Budwig		Florida Int’l
Offensive Line	Darius Johnson		Middle Tennessee
Offensive Line	Kaydon Kirby		North Texas
Offensive Line	Andrew Reue		Rice
Offensive Line	Clint Van Horn		Marshall
Defense	Player		School
Defensive Line	Vernon Butler		Louisiana Tech
Defensive Line	Jason Neill		UTSA
Defensive Line	Jarquez Samuel		Marshall
Defensive Line	Michael Smith		Southern Miss
Defensive Line	Michael Wakefield		Florida Int’l
Linebacker	T. T. Barber		Middle Tennessee
Linebacker	Drew Douglas		UTSA
Linebacker	D. J. Hunter		Marshall
Defensive Back	Kevin Byard		Middle Tennessee
Defensive Back	Crevon LeBlanc		Florida Atlantic
Defensive Back	Richard Leonard		Florida Int’l
Defensive Back	Bennett Okotcha		UTSA
Defensive Back	Wonderful Terry		Western Kentucky
Defensive Back	Xavier Woods		Louisiana Tech
Special Teams	Player		School
Kicker	Trevor Moore		North Texas
Punter	Tyler Williams		Marshall
Kick Returner	Autrey Golden		UTEP
Punt Returner	Richard Leonard		Florida Int’l
Long Snapper	Matt Cincotta		Marshall

Here are our three computer ratings and average for each of the teams.

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	100.6	98.6	101.7	100.3
Marshall	97.1	96.6	98.0	97.2
Middle Tennessee	93.1	92.6	92.5	92.7
Florida International	88.5	90.6	90.1	89.7
Old Dominion	82.3	89.6	81.5	84.5
Florida Atlantic	82.4	86.6	83.1	84.0
Charlotte	68.7	71.6	68.4	69.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	98.9	96.6	99.7	98.4
Rice	86.0	90.6	86.2	87.6
UTEP	84.5	89.2	84.6	86.1
Southern Mississippi	85.0	84.8	83.3	84.4
North Texas	81.4	88.6	82.7	84.2
UT-San Antonio	72.5	80.6	72.6	75.2
CUSA Averages	86.2	89.0	86.5	87.2

And, here are the PiRate Ratings won-loss predictions and bowl projections.

PiRate Ratings Predicted Records
Pos	Team	Conf.	Overall	Bowl
East Division
1	Western Kentucky	7-1	10-3 *	Bahamas
2	Marshall	7-1	11-1	St. Petersburg
3	Middle Tennessee	5-3	6-6	New Orleans
4	Florida Int’l	5-3	6-6	Arizona %
5	Old Dominion	4-4	6-6	At-Large
6	Florida Atlantic	1-7	2-10	None
7	Charlotte	0-8	1-11	None
West Division
1	Louisiana Tech	7-1	9-4 ^	Boca Raton
2	Rice	5-3	7-5	New Mexico
3	Southern Miss	5-3	6-6	Heart of Dallas
4	UTEP	3-5	5-7	None
5	North Texas	2-6	3-9	None
6	UTSA	1-7	1-11	None
*	Wins Title Game
^	Loses Title Game
%	The Arizona Bowl has no sponsor and may not be played in 2015

Coming Next: The Mid-American Conference

 

 

2013 Sunbelt Conference Football Preview

2013 Sunbelt Conference Preview

 

Once again, the Sunbelt Conference kicks off our PiRate Ratings Previews for a new college football season.  We preview the conferences in reverse order of overall league average, and the SBC brings up the rear once again.  Whereas in past seasons, this league was not that far behind its non-automatic-qualifying conference brethren, changes due to defections and new additions have damaged the league.

New Teams: Georgia State and Texas State

Departed Teams: Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Middle Tennessee, North Texas

2014 Additions: New Mexico St. and Idaho return to the league they left after 2003, while FCS teams Appalachian St. and Georgia Southern move to FBS

2014 Departures: Western Kentucky moves to CUSA

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

Sunbelt Conference
Team		Conf.		Overall		PiRate		Mean	Bias
Louisiana—Monroe		0-0		0-0		96.8		93.0	98.0
Arkansas St.		0-0		0-0		93.6		87.6	93.5
Louisiana—Lafayette		0-0		0-0		92.4		91.6	92.2
Western Kentucky		0-0		0-0		89.5		93.5	90.3
Troy		0-0		0-0		85.5		87.0	87.1
Texas St.		0-0		0-0		80.6		87.8	79.9
South Alabama		0-0		0-0		79.9		82.7	80.5
Georgia St.		0-0		0-0		60.7		71.5	62.1
League Averages						84.9		86.8	85.5
Official Sunbelt Media Poll
Pos.	Team		Points		1st Place
1 (tie)	Louisiana-Lafayette		57		4
1 (tie)	Louisiana-Monroe		57		2
3	Arkansas St.		45		2
4	Western Kentucky		44		0
5	Troy		35		0
6	Texas St.		23		0
7	South Alabama		19		0
8	Georgia St.		8		0

Official Pre-season All-Sunbelt Conference Team

Offense

Kolton Browning (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., QB)

David Oku (Arkansas State, Sr., RB)

Antonio Andrews (WKU, Sr., RB)

J.D. McKissic (Arkansas State, So., WR)

Je’Ron Hamm (ULM, Sr., WR)

Eric Thomas (Troy, Sr. WR)

Wes Saxton (South Alabama, Jr., TE)

Bryce Giddens (Arkansas State, So., OL)

Andre Huval (Louisiana-Lafayette, Sr., OL)

Josh Allen (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., OL)

Terrence Jones (Troy, Jr., OL)

Sean Conway (WKU, Sr., OL)

Defense

Ryan Carrethers (Arkansas State, Sr., DL)

Christian Ringo (Louisiana-Lafayette, Jr., DL)

Kentarius Caldwell (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., DL)

Alex Page (South Alabama, Sr., DL)

Qushaun Lee (Arkansas State, Jr., LB)

Justin Anderson (Louisiana-Lafayette, Sr., LB)

Andrew Jackson (WKU, Jr., LB)

Sterling Young (Arkansas State, Jr., DB)

Isaiah Newsome (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., DB)

Tyrell Pearson (South Alabama, Sr., DB)

Jonathan Dowling (WKU, Sr., DB)

Special Teams

Brian Davis (Arkansas State, Sr., K)

Will Scott (Troy, Sr., P)

Antonio Andrews (WKU, Sr., Return Specialist)

Preseason Offensive Player of the Year

Kolton Browning (Louisiana-Monroe, Sr., QB)

Preseason Defensive Player of the Year

Andrew Jackson (WKU, Jr., LB)

 

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100    A+

86-92      A

79-85      A-

72-78      B+

65-71      B

58-64      B-

51-57      C+

44-50      C

37-43      C-

30-36      D

0-29        F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

Team	UL-Monroe Warhawks
Head Coach	Todd Berry
Colors	Maroon & Gold
City	Monroe, LA
2012 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-5
Grades
Run Offense	57
Pass Offense	76
Run Defense	62
Pass Defense	51
Ratings
PiRate	96.8
Mean	93.0
Bias	98.0
Rankings
PiRate	76
Mean	90
Bias	72
Prediction
Conference	6-1
Overall	8-4

Team	Arkansas State Red Wolves
Head Coach	Bryan Harsin
Colors	Scarlet & Black
City	Jonesboro, AR
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	10-3
Grades
Run Offense	67
Pass Offense	67
Run Defense	52
Pass Defense	49
Ratings
PiRate	93.6
Mean	87.6
Bias	93.5
Rankings
PiRate	83
Mean	108
Bias	84
Prediction
Conference	6-1
Overall	9-3

Team	Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns
Head Coach	Mark Hudspeth
Colors	Vermillion and White
City	Lafayette, LA
2012 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense	67
Pass Offense	71
Run Defense	49
Pass Defense	43
Ratings
PiRate	92.4
Mean	91.6
Bias	92.2
Rankings
PiRate	87
Mean	98
Bias	88
Prediction
Conference	5-2
Overall	8-4

Team	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Head Coach	Bobby Petrino
Colors	Red and White
City	Bowling Green, KY
2012 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	7-6
Grades
Run Offense	53
Pass Offense	60
Run Defense	48
Pass Defense	55
Ratings
PiRate	89.5
Mean	93.5
Bias	90.3
Rankings
PiRate	93
Mean	89
Bias	93
Prediction
Conference	5-2
Overall	8-4

Team	Troy Trojans
Head Coach	Larry Blakeney
Colors	Red, Black, and Gray
City	Troy, AL
2012 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	5-7
Grades
Run Offense	36
Pass Offense	72
Run Defense	41
Pass Defense	47
Ratings
PiRate	85.5
Mean	87.0
Bias	87.1
Rankings
PiRate	106
Mean	109
Bias	99
Prediction
Conference	3-4
Overall	4-8

Team	Texas State Bobcats
Head Coach	Dennis Franchione
Colors	Maroon and Gold
City	San Marcos, TX
2012 Record
Conference	2-4 (in WAC)
Overall	4-8
Grades
Run Offense	52
Pass Offense	38
Run Defense	57
Pass Defense	40
Ratings
PiRate	80.6
Mean	87.8
Bias	79.9
Rankings
PiRate	117
Mean	106
Bias	118
Prediction
Conference	2-5
Overall	4-8

Team	South Alabama Jaguars
Head Coach	Joey Jones
Colors	Red, White, and Blue
City	Mobile, AL
2012 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-11
Grades
Run Offense	50
Pass Offense	46
Run Defense	46
Pass Defense	39
Ratings
PiRate	79.9
Mean	82.7
Bias	80.5
Rankings
PiRate	118
Mean	119
Bias	116
Prediction
Conference	1-6
Overall	2-10

Team	Georgia State Panthers
Head Coach	Trent Miles
Colors	Royal Blue and White
City	Atlanta
2012 Record
Conference	1-7 (in FCS:Colonial Athletic)
Overall	1-10
Grades
Run Offense	17
Pass Offense	35
Run Defense	31
Pass Defense	19
Ratings
PiRate	60.7
Mean	71.5
Bias	62.1
Rankings
PiRate	125
Mean	125
Bias	125
Prediction
Conference	0-7
Overall	0-12

2011 Sunbelt Conference Preview

2011 Sunbelt Conference Preview

 

The guard may be in process of changing in the Sunbelt Conference.  Florida International and Troy finished tied for first at 6-2 last year, but FIU defeated the Trojans by 17. 

 

Florida International returns an experienced quarterback in Wesley Carroll, good depth at running back with Darriet Perry and Darian Mallary capable of teaming for 1,800 rushing yards, and the top receiver in the league and a possible high NFL draft choice in T. Y. Hilton.  Their offensive line is close to the best in the league and could emerge as the best if someone can step forward at center.  FIU should top 30 points and 400 yards per game this season.

 

Defensively, the Golden Panthers should be as good as or better than last season.  The one question mark will be at linebacker.

 

Louisiana Monroe is the wildcard in this season’s SBC race.  The Warriors return 17 starters from a year ago and should definitely improve on their 4-4 conference mark and 5-7 record overall.  An overtime loss to eventual champion FIU and a one-point loss to Louisiana in the season finale was all that kept ULM from winning the league last year.  The Warriors figure to be at least 7-10 points better in 2011, and when they host FIU on November 19, it could very well be for the 2011 SBC title.

 

Kolton Browning is an excellent dual threat quarterback.  He completed 62% of his passes last year as a freshman.  His top four receivers return this year, and ULM should gain 250 yards through the air this season.

 

The defense must improve after giving up 32 points per game last year.  The Warriors gave up 4.4 yards per carry, and that number will not win a conference championship.

 

Troy is not out, but they are down a bit.  The Trojans were hit hard after the end of the season losing two wide receivers that were expected to contribute heavily in 2011.  Chip Reeves and Jamel Johnson would have been the two leading returning receivers for the league’s best passer, Corey Robinson.

 

Troy should have a much improved defense this season after giving up more than 30 points per game in 2010.  However, the Trojans’ offense may not repeat last year’s results when they averaged 34 points and 450+ yards per game. 

 

Defensively, end Jonathan Massaquoi will contend for defensive Player of the Year honors.  Massaquoi recorded more than 20 tackles for loss with 13 ½ sacks last year.  He will see more double teams with the departure of Mario Addison.

 

Arkansas State could have been 8-4 instead of 4-8.  The Red Wolves will be the most exciting team in the league with their no-huddle hurry-up offense.  An inexperienced offensive line could be their downfall.  If the green OL can protect quarterback Ryan Aplin, ASU’s passing game could top 275 yards per game through the air.  Dwayne Frampton, Allen Muse, and Taylor Stockemer return after combining for 145 receptions, 1,933 yards, and 16 touchdowns last year, and this year junior college transfer Jose Jarboe joins the fold to give the Red Wolves a receiving corps that has no peers inside the league.

 

Unfortunately, the hurry-up offense means the defense may have to hurry to get back on the field for too many plays.  ASU’s defense does not have the depth to stay on the field for 75 plays a game and be effective.

 

Western Kentucky is being picked near the bottom of the conference by the media, but we believe the Hilltoppers will be much improved this year.  WKU was outscored by just 2.6 points per game in league play, and they were only outgained by 20 yards per game.  With most of their skilled players returning on offense as well as some decent depth in the trenches, the Hilltoppers could flirt with a winning record in 2011.  A tough non-conference schedule could prevent that from happening, but we would not be surprised if WKU’s conference record was .500 or better.

 

Running back Bobby Rainey returns after leading the league with 1,649 yards rushing.  If the Hilltoppers can come up with just a little more balance on the attack side, they could threaten the 28 points per game mark.

 

Defensively, WKU was too easy to run on.  The Hilltoppers gave up five yards per carry, and still they were often burned by enemy passing games.  The defense will be quite a bit improved, but it is still not championship quality.

 

Middle Tennessee has never won the SBC title; they have flirted for years with championship material, but the Blue Raiders have been the Fresno State of the Sunbelt.  2011 should see Middle Tennessee take a step back after going to bowls both of the last two seasons. 

 

The Blue Raiders must rebuild on defense, and they were not all that tough on that side of the ball, giving up 120 points and 1,426 yards to Troy, Arkansas State, and FIU, the top three offenses in the league.

 

There could be a diamond in the rough on the offensive side of the ball.  Running back Jeremiah Bryson was headed to Pittsburgh, but he changed his mind to stay closer to home due to family issues.  Bryson could be the best back in Murfreesboro since Dwone Hicks played there a decade ago.

 

It is hard to believe that it has been seven years since North Texas was the original Troy of the Sunbelt.  The Mean Green won the league title four years in a row from 2001 to 2004, but UNT hasn’t tasted success since, going just 13-58 in the past in the last six seasons.  New head coach Dan McCarney will try to resurrect the program.  McCarney brought Iowa State back to respectability, taking the Cyclones to five bowls in six years and coming within a missed kick of winning the Big 12 North twice.  McCarney was Urban Meyer’s top assistant at Florida the last three years. 

 

McCarney dismissed top receiver Darius Carey from the team, and the UNT passing attack will struggle this year.  Sophomore quarterback Derek Thompson will battle Juco transfer Brent Osborn.  Whoever emerges as the starter will be handing the ball to Lance Dunbar about 25 times per game.  Dunbar rushed for 1,553 yards and 13 scores last year, and he caught 28 passes for three more touchdowns.

 

Defensively, the Mean Green were quite improved last year, although they still gave up 30 points and almost 400 yards per game.  Just three years ago, they gave up close to 50 points and 500 yards per game.  There could be additional improvement in 2011, but a tough schedule should prevent UNT from threatening for bowl eligibility.

 

Louisiana starts from scratch with new coach Mark Hudspeth.  Every place Hudspeth has gone, his teams have won, and the folks in Lafayette are excited in hopes that he will turn the program around.  UL’s last winning season was in the previous century, so do not expect miracles in year one.  In fact, the Ragin’ Cajuns could even take a small step back from last season’s 3-9 finish.

 

Quarterback Chris Masson is not going to be confused with Jake Delhomme, but the senior should improve on his 52.9 completion percentage this season.  He played in a shotgun formation last year and will be under center most of the time this season.  Masson has the top tight end target in the league in LaDarius Green.  Green is a threat to get open in the seams of zones and present a monstrous target.

 

An inexperienced offensive line will spell doom for the offense this year, but UL could have some memorable moments.

 

The defense is going to have some rough Saturdays once again.  UL surrendered 37 points and just under 400 yards per game last year, and even an improvement to 30 points allowed will not be enough to move the Ragin’ Cajuns north in the standings.

 

Florida Atlantic head coach Howard Schnellenberger just announced that 2011 will be his last.  Schnellenberger, 77, has a storied history in football.  He was recruited to Kentucky by Bear Bryant and later served on some of the best coaching staffs of all time.  As an assistant at his alma mater in the late 1950’s, he served under future NFL Champion coach Blanton Collier along with Don Shula and Bill Arnsparger.  As an assistant at Alabama, the Crimson Tide won multiple national titles, and he was the key recruiter that landed Joe Namath.  As an assistant in the NFL, he won a Super Bowl ring with Shula at Miami after helping the Rams win two division titles in the late 1960’s.  Throw in a college football championship at the U of Miami, and that is more than enough for any one man.  He was not finished.  He returned to his city of childhood and built Louisville into a major force in college football.  He also started the program at FAU. 

 

We mention all these things, because the 2011 season could be a really lousy way to exit the profession.  The Owls were the weakest offensive team in the SBC last year, and they lost most of their good players, including quarterback Jeff Van Camp and his top three receivers.  FAU had trouble running the ball, and it will be difficult to improve the running game with an inexperienced passing game this season.  The one positive is the return of all starting offensive linemen.

 

Defensively, opponents had little difficulty running or passing against the Owls in 2010, and the scary news is that the 2011 defense could be a little weaker.  Five of the top six tacklers from last year are gone.

 

Sunbelt Conference Preseason Media Poll
Team			First Place Votes	Points
1. Florida Int’l			5	75
2. Troy			2	66
3. Middle Tennessee				54
4. Louisiana-Monroe				54
5. Arkansas St.			1	49
6. North Texas				33
7. Western Kentucky			1	28
8. Louisiana				26
9. Florida Atlantic				20
The PiRate Ratings
Team			PiRate #	Prediction
1. Florida Int’l			87.1	7-1/8-4
2. Louisiana-Monroe			82.3	7-1/8-4
3. Troy			81.3	6-2/6-6
4. Arkansas State			81.3	4-4/5-7
5. Western Kentucky			75.1	3-5/4-8
6. Middle Tennessee			72.8	4-4/5-7
7. North Texas			71.9	3-5/3-9
8. Louisiana			71.7	1-7/2-10
9. Florida Atlantic			68.7	1-7/1-11

Next: The Mid-American Conference Preview, Tuesday, August 16 

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 9 Update

Three More Tickets Punched

Horizon League Championship

Butler 59  Milwaukee 44

 The Bulldogs held Milwaukee to 30% shooting from the field, and Matt Howard connected on seven of nine shots to pace Butler with 18 points, as the defending National Final runner-up earned another spot in the Big Dance.

 Summit League Championship

Oakland 90  Oral Roberts 76 

The Golden Grizzlies displayed a great offensive show with the aid of numerous first half steals by Drew Valentine and Reggie Hamilton to build a double-digit lead by the break.  After withstanding an early second half run by the Golden Eagles, Oakland pulled away to win the automatic bid.  

Keith Benson topped Oakland with 28 points and 14 rebounds.  Hamilton added 25 with six assists, while Will Hudson recorded a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds.

 

Sunbelt Conference Championship

U A L R  64  North Texas  63 

The Trojans won their first Sunbelt Championship and earned their first bid to the NCAA Tournament since 1990.

 

SBC Player of the Year Solomon Bozeman drove from the backcourt to the left side of the top of the key and drained a three-pointer with 1.5 seconds remaining to give UALR the decisive points.  Bozeman scored a game-high 20 points. 

North Texas had led by seven points with less than two minutes to go, but the Mean Green wilted under the Trojan pressure defense.  With one last chance to try to win, UNT committed a turnover on the inbounds pass. 

11 Automatic Qualifiers To Date

Team	Conference	Record
Arkansas-Little Rock	Sunbelt	19-16
Belmont	Atlantic South	30-4
Butler	Horizon	23-9
Gonzaga	West Coast	24-9
Indiana State	Missouri Valley	20-13
Morehead State	Ohio Valley	24-9
Oakland	Summit	25-9
Old Dominion	Colonial	27-6
St. Peter’s	Metro Atlantic	20-13
UNC-Asheville	Big South	19-13
Wofford	Southern	21-12

 

Two Tickets To Be Punched Tonight

Big Sky Tournament Championship @ 9PM ET On ESPN2

#2 Montana (21-9) at #1 Northern Colorado (20-10)

 

Semifinal Round

Montana 57  Weber State 40

Northern Colorado 73  Northern Arizona 70

 

These two split their regular season series with Northern Colorado winning 63-45 in Greeley, and Montana winning 55-42 in Missoula.  Tonight’s game will be played at Butler-Hancock Hall in Greeley, so Northern Colorado will enjoy the home court advantage. 

This game is a great study in contrasts.  Northern Colorado is a quicker team, but Montana is a stronger team.  Northern Colorado has one exceptionally dominant player, while Montana has more, albeit less exceptional, weapons.

 

The Bears’ offense runs through 6-1 senior guard Devon Beitzel.  Beitzel averages a league-best 21 points per game, and he is deadly at the free throw line, where he connects on 91% of his tosses. 

The rest of the team collectively shoots under 41% from the field and commits more turnovers than assists, so if the Grizzlies can stop Beitzel, or at least limit his touches, they have a chance of defending their crown.

 

Montana has the dominant big man in the conference in 6-11/260 senior center Brian Qvale.  If the Grizzlies can keep this game a half-court affair, they stand a great chance of winning with Qvale plugging the middle on defense and controlling the boards at both ends of the court.  Qvale averages 15 points and nine boards a game, and he had a double-double with 16 points and 17 rebounds in the semifinal round.  Montana likes to limit possessions, so those numbers are even more impressive than they look. 

In the win over UNC, Montana held the Bears to 23.3% shooting, while they shot just 32.6% in the loss at Greeley.

 

It is our opinion that the visiting number two seed will pull off the mild upset over the host numbone seed, but it is not a strong feeling. 

 Northeast Conference Tournament Championship @ 7PM ET On ESPN2

#3 Robert Morris (18-13) at #1 Long Island (26-5)

Semifinal Round

Long Island 69  Central Connecticut 67

Robert Morris 64  Quinnipiac 62

Brooklyn has not been this excited over one of their own sports teams since the Dodgers won the 1955 World Series.  Long Island is one of the most exciting teams in the nation, and their 26-5 record has throngs of Brooklynites cramming into the Wellness, Recreation, and Athletic Center.  The WRAC holds just 2,500 seats, but you can bet that more than that amount will find their way into the game tonight, as they “Pack the WRAC.” 

Those fans will be converging to the corner of Ashland and Dekalb tonight, dressed in all white, to watch what could be a blowout win for their team.   

LIU is on a roll.  The Blackbirds have won 12 games in a row (longest current streak in the nation) and 20 of their previous 21 games.  They average almost 83 points per game.  The Blackbirds have exceptional depth with eight players capable of scoring 15 or more points. 

 

The Blackbirds pose difficult matchups with their roster, as they rely on quick guards and medium-sized forwards with great leaping ability to play at a fast pace.  There is no center on the roster, but the two 6-7 forwards have controlled the boards in most games this year. 

Those forwards are Julian Boyd and Jamal Olasewere, who team up for 25.4 points and 15.7 rebounds per game.

 5-10 backup guard Jason Brickman plays just 22 minutes per game, but he leads the team with 5.3 assists per game.  When he comes in the game, the pace picks up, and the Blackbirds shoot a lot of threes in transition.

 

Robert Morris is definitely not cannon fodder.  The Colonials are the two-time defending NEC Tournament champions, and they believe they can three peat even on the road in hostile conditions. 

The Colonials have won eight games in a row, relying on a stellar defense that limits possessions and pressures the guards.  They are missing their leading scorer, as 5-9 guard Karon Abraham’s season ended two weeks ago with a torn Achilles Tendon.  On the positive side, Abraham missed RMU’s win at LIU on December 2, as he was serving a multi-game suspension. 

Velton Jones and Russell Johnson will have to shine tonight for the Colonials to pull off the upset.  The duo are the only double figure scorers left, but both shoot less than 39% from the field. 

Without Abraham, RMU shoots just 33.7% from behind the arc, so the only way they can possibly win tonight is to replicate the formula that was successful more than three months ago—control the tempo and prevent LIU from getting off any uncontested three-pointers. 

We believe this game will begin slowly with RMU taking the lead in the early stages.  Somewhere in the first half, LIU will go on one of their patented runs and gain the lead.  Then, a second spurt will give them a commanding lead.  RMU might cut into that lead, but we believe in the end, the Blackbirds will be celebrating at the WRAC.  We do not believe the Brooklynites will be crying “Wait ‘Til Next Year.”  This will be like October of 1955 in the borough.

 

Yesterday’s Other Tournament Results

Atlantic 10 Conference

First Round

LaSalle 75  St. Bonaventure 73  2ot

St. Joseph’s 71  George Washington 59  ot

Rhode Island 70  St. Louis 61

Dayton 78  U Mass 50

 

Big East Conference

First Round

Connecticut 97  DePaul 71

Rutgers 76  Seton Hall 70 ot

South Florida 70  Villanova 69

Marquette 87  Providence 66 

M A C

First Round

Bowling Green 74  Northern Illinois 54

Ohio U 74  Toledo 57

Akron 67  Eastern Michigan 53

Buffalo 64  Central Michigan 50

 

M E A C

First Round

MD-Eastern Shore 87  F A M U 85  2ot

S. C. State 64  Delaware State 59 

Ivy League Playoff Set

Princeton defeated rival Penn 70-58 last night in Philadelphia, forcing a one-game playoff for the Ivy League’s automatic berth.  Princeton (24-6) will take on co-champion Harvard (23-5) Saturday afternoon at 4PM Eastern Time.  The game will be played at Yale University in New Haven, CT, and it can be seen live on ESPN3.com.

Princeton has appeared in all seven Ivy League tiebreaking playoff games in the history of the league.  This is Harvard’s first Ivy League basketball championship of any kind.  The Crimson last appeared in the NCAA Tournament in 1946. 

There is a chance that the loser of this game could hold a slim chance of earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.  Harvard is ranked #35 in the RPI, while Princeton is ranked #49.  Harvard has two wins over top 50 teams as well as three losses.  Their biggest win was at Boston College.  Princeton has just one win against the top 50 and two losses.  For the Ivy to earn two bids, the Tigers have to win Saturday and hope Harvard’s high RPI is enough to earn the second bid. 

Conference Tournaments In Action Today

Big 12 Conference

Tournament Site: Kansas City

1^st Round Games

#8 Nebraska (19-11) vs. #9 Oklahoma State (18-12)  12:30 PM ET

#5 Colorado (19-12) vs. #12 Iowa State (16-15)  3 PM ET

#7 Baylor (18-12) vs. #10 Oklahoma (13-17)  7PM ET

#6 Missouri (22-9) vs. #11 Texas Tech (13-18) 9:30 PM ET 

Big East Conference

Tournament Site: New York City

2^nd Round Games

#8 Georgetown (21-9) vs. #9 Connecticut (22-9)  12 Noon ET on ESPN

#5 St. John’s (20-10) vs. #13 Rutgers (15-16)  Approx. 2:15 PM ET on ESPN

#7 Cincinnati (24-7) vs. #15 South Florida (10-22)  7 PM ET on ESPN

#6 West Virginia (20-10) vs. #11 Marquette (19-13)  Approx. 9:15 PM ET on ESPN 

Conference USA

Tournament Site: El Paso, TX

1^st Round Games

#8 East Carolina (16-14) vs. #9 Central Florida (19-10)  1 PM ET

#5 Southern Miss (21-9) vs. #12 Tulane (13-16)  3:30 PM ET

#6 Marshall (21-10) vs. #11 Houston (12-17)  7:30 PM ET

#7 S M U (17-13) vs. #10 Rice (13-17)  10 PM ET 

M E A C

Tournament Site: Winston-Salem, NC

Note: The MEAC has a unique way of scheduling their tournament.  As a result, one first round game will be played today as well as two quarterfinal round games.  The other two quarterfinal round games will be played Thursday. 

1^st Round

#6 Norfolk State () vs. #11 Howard ()  3 PM ET

Quarterfinal Round

#1 Bethune-Cookman (20-11) vs. #9 South Carolina State (10-21)  7 PM ET

#2 Hampton (21-8) vs. #10 Maryland-Eastern Shore (9-21)  9:30 PM ET 

Mountain West Conference

Tournament Site: Las Vegas

1^st Round

#8 Wyoming (10-20) vs. #9 T C U (10-21)  5 PM ET 

Pac-10 Conference

Tournament Site: Los Angeles

1^st Round

#8 Stanford (15-15) vs. #9 Oregon State (10-19)  9 PM ET on Fox Sports Net

#7 Oregon (14-16) vs. #10 Arizona State (12-18)  11:30 PM ET on Fox Sports Net 

Southland Conference

Tournament Site: Katy, TX (Houston Area)

Quarterfinal Round

#2 Northwestern State (LA) (18-13) vs. #7 Texas-San Antonio (16-13)  1 PM ET

#3 Sam Houston (17-12) vs. #6 Stephen F. Austin (18-10)  3:30 PM ET

#1 McNeese State (19-10) vs. #8 Nicholls State (14-13)  7 PM ET

#4 Texas State (15-15) vs. #5 Southeastern Louisiana (15-13)  9:30 PM ET 

S W A C

Tournament Site: Garland, TX (Dallas-Ft. Worth Area) 

Quarterfinal Round

#2 Jackson State (16-14) vs. #7 Prairie View (10-21)  12:30 PM ET

#1 Texas Southern (18-11) vs. #8 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (7-23)  9 PM ET

W A C

Tournament Site: Las Vegas

1^st Round

#5 Hawaii (18-11) vs. #8 San Jose State (15-14)  3 PM ET

#6 Nevada (12-18) vs. #7 Fresno State (14-16)  5:30 PM ET

NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments–March 8 Update

 

The Four Newest Dance Invitees

Did you see those conference championship games last night?  Was this the Monday Night Fights or basketball?  There were more cut men and cut women than in your average boxing card.

 

When it is all or nothing for these smaller conferences, you get what we saw last night—teams playing like their lives were on the line.

 

Colonial Athletic Association

Old Dominion 70

Virginia Commonwealth 65

 

Old Dominion 27-6

 

The Monarchs are capable of making a semi-surprise run in the Big Dance.  They lead the nation in rebounding margin, and they can score points in the paint. 

 

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

St. Peter’s 62

Iona 57

 

St. Peter’s 20-13

 

The Peacocks beat Alabama earlier in the season, and their defense could keep them within striking defense in an opening round game, but we cannot see SPC advancing to the second round.

 

Southern Conference

Wofford 77

College of Charleston 67

 

Wofford 21-12

 

The Terriers finally beat the Cougars (we predicted this yesterday), and they will not roll over and play dead in the first round.  This team returns to the Dance for the second consecutive season, and they will not back down.  They may not advance, but they will not be in awe of their heavily favored first round opponent.

 

West Coast Conference

Gonzaga 75

Saint Mary’s 63

 

Gonzaga 24-9

 

This edition of Zags may not be the most talented in the Coach Mark Few era, but they are playing their best ball at the right time.  It will depend on their bracket, but this team has Sweet 16 potential.

 

Three More Invitations Go Out Tonight

By 11:15 PM Eastern Time tonight, we will know the names of three more NCAA Tournament participants.  Let’s break down these games.

 

Horizon League Championship @ 9PM ET on ESPN

Butler (22-9)  at  Milwaukee (19-12)

 

Butler defeated Cleveland State in the semifinal round Saturday evening, while Milwaukee topped Valparaiso.  During the regular season, Milwaukee swept the Bulldogs, winning 76-52 at home and 86-80 in overtime on the road.  The top-seeded Panthers host this game.

 

Both teams are red hot coming into this title match.  Milwaukee has gone 10-1 in their last 11 games, and the only loss was in the Bracketbuster to Buffalo.  Their defense is what got them here, as they shoot only 43% from the field and 65% at the foul line.

 

Three Panthers average double figures in scoring, led by Anthony Hill.  Hill averages just under 16 points per game, but he broke out with a 24-point, 11-rebound performance in the semifinal game against Valpo.  Kaylon Williams is the X-factor for Panthers.  He can score when needed, rebound with the big men, and run the offense.  He recorded a triple-double earlier in the season against Butler (10 points-10 rebounds-10 assists), and he added a double-double in the second win over the Bulldogs.

 

Butler missed Gordon Hayward even more than most experts predicted.  The Bulldogs played a tough pre-conference schedule and limped into February.  With their backs against the wall, they reeled off eight consecutive victories to get to the title game tonight.

 

Most basketball fans know Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack from last year’s team that made the surprise run to the National Championship Game.  The duo has teamed for 32 points and 6.5 rebounds per game this year.  However, it has been the emergence of 6-11 sophomore center Andrew Smith that has allowed Butler to turn things around and look like a force to be reckoned with once again.  Smith averaged 11 points per game over the second half of the season.  In the eight game winning streak, he has averaged 32 minutes per game and pulled down close to eight rebounds per game.  His 63% field goal percentage has forced defenses to stop him first, giving Howard and Mack more room to get open.  Smith was a non-factor in the two games against Milwaukee, and he is the key to tonight’s game.  If he plays 32 minutes and gets double figure points and eight rebounds, Butler will be cutting down the nets yet again.

 

Summit League Championship @ 9PM ET on ESPN2

Site: Sioux Falls, SD

Oakland (24-9)  vs. Oral Roberts (19-14)

 

If you like high-scoring, fast-paced games, you will definitely clear your schedule to view this one.  Oakland is the second best offensive team in the nation, averaging 86 points per game (92 ppg in their last 10 games).  The Grizzlies connect on close to 50% of their field goal attempts, and they tend to hit spurts where they score 10 points in two minutes.  Oral Roberts averages 81 points per game and has no qualms running with Oakland.

 

Both teams are riding major winning streaks entering tonight’s title game.  Oakland has won 17 of their last 18 games, while the Golden Eagles have won 10 in a row.  In the regular season, Oakland won both high-scoring games, but both were nail-biters that went down to the wire. 

 

Oakland has a tall and short combination that has done a lot of the damage on opponents.  6-11 center Keith Benson is the best player in the league.  Benson averages 17.7 points and 10 rebounds per game.  He showed he can do it against the big schools, as he had 17 points and 12 rebounds in a close loss to Michigan State and 26 points and 10 rebounds in a big win at Tennessee. 

 

5-11 guard Reggie Hamilton is a threat to top 20 points any night.  He is quick and can get open without help from screens.

 

Oral Roberts has a star in its own right.  Dominique Morrison averages just under 20 points per game, and he doesn’t need to heave up 25 shots per game to get those points.  Morrison shoots 51.3% from the field, 40% from behind the three-point line, and 78.4% at the foul line.  He scored 56 points in the two games against Oakland.

 

This should be a great game, and we don’t believe Oakland is that much of a favorite.  ORU has been to the Big Dance four times in the last six years, while Oakland is the defending tournament champion.  We expect the winner to top 90 points in this game, and it is too close to call.  We say Oakland has about a 54% chance and Oral Roberts a 46% chance of winning.

 

Sunbelt Conference Championship @ 7PM ET on ESPN2

Site: Hot Springs, AR

 

North Texas (22-10)  vs. U A L R (18-16)

 

On paper this looks like a mismatch, even though the teams finished one game apart in the regular season.  North Texas finished fourth in the West with an 8-8 league mark, while Little Rock finished fifth at 7-9.

 

North Texas was one of the biggest underachievers this season.  The Mean Green returned four starters from their 2010 conference champion team and were expected to win again this year with the best backcourt and one of the best frontcourts in the league.  Instead, a 3-9 swoon in the middle of the season placed them out of contention for the West crown.  Since that awful slide, UNT has recovered with five consecutive victories.

 

6-5 senior guard Tristan Thompson has led the way for the Mean Green in the tournament, scoring 80 points in the first three games.  He has done a lot of the damage at the foul line, where he is 31-35 in Hot Springs, including an unbelievable 20-20 performance in the win over top-seed Florida Atlantic.  Thompson combines a quick move to the basket with a sweet shot from outside.  Beefy forward George Odufuwa averages 11 points and 10.2 rebounds per game, and UALR has a tough matchup problem against him.

 

The Trojans dropped both regular season games to North Texas, mostly because they could not compete under the basket.  Their chance to win this game will come down to limiting possessions and trying to win 55-50.  They have won three games in the tournament by getting to the foul line and hitting foul shots, while using the clock and taking 30 seconds to shoot on most possessions.  UALR’s big star in this tournament has been senior guard Solomon Bozeman.  Like Thompson, Bozeman has gotten to the free throw line and made the most of his opportunities.  He has connected on 37 of 42 attempts including an eye-popping 19 of 22 against Middle Tennessee last night.

 

We expect a low-possession, low-scoring game.  There may be fewer than 100 field goal attempts tonight.  North Texas has been there before, while UALR has never won the Sunbelt Conference Tournament.  We think that trend will continue, but it wouldn’t surprise us if this game stays relatively close for the entire 40 minutes.  We could see North Texas winning 60-54.

 

The Other Tournaments In Action Today

 

Atlantic 10 Conference

First Round At Higher Seed Home Court

 

#9 Dayton (19-12) at #8 U Mass (15-14)  9PM ET on CBSC

#12 St. Joseph’s (9-21) at #5 George Washington (17-13)  7PM ET on CBSC

#10 LaSalle (14-17) at #7 St. Bonaventure (16-13)  5 PM ET on CBSC

#11 St. Louis (12-18) at #6 Rhode Island (18-12)  7 PM ET no TV

 

Big East Conference

Madison Square Garden in New York City

 

#16 Depaul (7-23) vs. #9 Georgetown (21-9) 12 Noon ET on ESPN2

#13 Rutgers (14-16) vs. #12 Seton Hall (13-17) Approx. 2:15 PM ET on ESPN2

#15 South Florida (9-22) vs. #10 Villanova (21-10) 7PM ET on ESPNU

#14 Providence (15-16) vs. #11 Marquette (18-13) Approx 9:15 ET on ESPNU

 

Big Sky Conference

Semifinal Round At Higher Seed Home Court

#3 Weber State (18-11) at #2 Montana (20-9)

#4 Northern Arizona (19-11) at #1 Northern Colorado (19-10)

 

Mid-American Conference

1^st Round At Higher Seed Home Court  All Games At 7PM ET

 

#10 Northern Illinois (9-20) at #7 Bowling Green (13-18)

#11 Eastern Michigan (9-21) at #6 Akron (19-12)

#9 Central Michigan (10-20) at #8 Buffalo (17-12)

#12 Toledo (4-27) at #5 Ohio U (17-14)

 

Mideastern Athletic Conference

Lawrence Joel Coliseum in Winston-Salem, NC

 

#9 South Carolina State (9-21) vs. #8 Delaware State (9-20)  9PM ET

#10 Maryland-Eastern Shore (8-21) vs. #7 Florida A&M (12-19)  6:30 PM ET

 

Note: One more 1^st round game Wednesday plus two quarterfinal games