PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 10

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Tuesday	October 30
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Miami (O)	8.1	8.5	7.0
Bowling Green	Kent St.	2.5	1.6	2.6

 

Wednesday	October 31
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Toledo	Ball St.	20.1	19.3	20.4

 

Thursday	November 1
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Western Michigan	Ohio U	-2.0	-1.6	-1.9
Akron	Northern Illinois	-2.7	-2.4	-2.7
Central Florida	Temple	15.0	15.2	14.6

 

Friday	November 2
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Virginia	Pittsburgh	7.3	8.3	7.2
Middle Tennessee	Western Kentucky	16.7	15.3	17.2
Arizona	Colorado	4.9	2.6	4.4

 

Saturday	November 3
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
SMU	Houston	-9.4	-10.6	-10.8
Purdue	Iowa	-0.3	0.1	-0.2
Georgia St.	Texas St.	8.9	8.0	9.2
Wake Forest	Syracuse	-4.1	-4.7	-5.4
Kentucky	Georgia	-10.3	-8.5	-11.3
Cincinnati	Navy	9.7	9.2	10.5
Ohio St.	Nebraska	25.6	24.9	27.1
North Carolina	Georgia Tech	-11.4	-11.3	-11.6
Florida	Missouri	1.6	1.3	1.3
Miami (Fla.)	Duke	6.7	7.0	6.7
North Carolina St.	Florida St.	7.7	8.0	7.8
East Carolina	Memphis	-15.1	-16.9	-16.5
Virginia Tech	Boston College	-2.6	-1.3	-2.8
Maryland	Michigan St.	-8.6	-7.8	-8.9
Texas Tech	Oklahoma	-9.2	-9.3	-10.7
Texas	West Virginia	0.9	0.3	0.9
Wisconsin	Rutgers	30.9	29.5	32.0
Northwestern	Notre Dame	-11.5	-10.6	-10.6
Illinois	Minnesota	-8.6	-8.2	-9.4
Eastern Michigan	Central Michigan	13.0	12.1	13.2
Army	Air Force	12.3	12.5	12.4
South Florida	Tulane	4.7	6.1	4.3
Coastal Carolina	Appalachian St.	-16.8	-16.1	-17.6
Boise St.	BYU	13.1	12.1	12.6
New Mexico	San Diego St.	-11.5	-10.3	-12.2
Wyoming	San Jose St.	19.3	18.4	20.6
Washington St.	California	8.6	9.9	8.6
Southern Miss.	Marshall	-8.5	-8.0	-9.2
Louisiana-Monroe	Georgia Southern	-7.1	-8.8	-7.6
Arizona St.	Utah	-6.8	-6.6	-7.8
Oregon	UCLA	13.4	13.6	16.3
Washington	Stanford	9.8	10.2	10.6
Kansas	Iowa St.	-12.2	-12.1	-13.9
Auburn	Texas A&M	4.6	4.8	6.2
Tennessee	Charlotte	24.9	22.8	23.9
Mississippi St.	Louisiana Tech	27.6	23.1	27.2
Baylor	Oklahoma St.	-6.6	-6.7	-6.9
Massachusetts	Liberty	1.2	3.8	1.5
TCU	Kansas St.	8.4	8.5	7.8
Tulsa	Connecticut	17.8	16.6	19.0
Clemson	Louisville	47.2	44.7	48.9
Michigan	Penn St.	9.1	10.6	9.8
Ole Miss	South Carolina	-5.0	-4.4	-4.1
Rice	UTEP	-3.6	-4.0	-4.8
Troy	Louisiana	11.7	10.8	11.9
Arkansas St.	South Alabama	13.3	12.9	14.3
UAB	UTSA	20.7	19.2	20.8
Florida Int’l.	Florida Atlantic	-1.3	1.7	-0.8
LSU	Alabama	-17.5	-15.8	-17.5
UNLV	Fresno St.	-28.7	-26.7	-28.9
Hawaii	Utah St.	-24.1	-23.7	-26.5

Oregon St.

USC

-20.4

-21.1

-21.3

FBS vs. FCS Game

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
New Mexico St.	Alcorn St.	10.8

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	140.5	138.5	141.9	140.3
2	Clemson	137.7	135.1	138.5	137.1
3	Georgia	128.5	125.6	129.5	127.8
4	Michigan	126.9	125.7	127.5	126.7
5	Oklahoma	123.2	122.0	123.7	123.0
6	Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9
7	Ohio St.	123.5	121.5	123.6	122.9
8	Washington	121.2	119.2	122.0	120.8
9	L S U	120.1	119.7	121.4	120.4
10	Penn St.	120.7	118.1	120.7	119.8
11	Mississippi St.	119.0	116.8	119.8	118.6
12	Utah	118.2	116.6	118.9	117.9
13	Michigan St.	117.3	115.2	116.8	116.5
14	Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3
15	Missouri	115.9	114.4	116.9	115.7
16	Auburn	115.5	114.3	117.1	115.6
17	Boston College	115.8	113.4	115.4	114.9
18	Kentucky	115.2	114.2	115.2	114.8
19	West Virginia	115.4	114.4	114.7	114.8
20	Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7
21	Florida	114.5	112.7	115.2	114.1
22	Georgia Tech	114.3	113.3	114.1	113.9
23	Miami	114.6	113.0	113.9	113.9
24	Stanford	114.4	112.0	114.4	113.6
25	Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	113.9	113.4
26	Purdue	113.7	112.2	113.5	113.1
27	Wisconsin	114.1	111.6	113.4	113.0
28	Iowa State	113.4	111.9	113.3	112.9
29	Washington St.	113.1	112.1	112.9	112.7
30	Texas	113.3	111.7	112.6	112.5
31	Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4
32	S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0
33	N. Carolina St.	111.1	110.4	110.6	110.7
34	Utah St.	109.4	110.7	110.8	110.3
35	Texas Tech	111.0	109.7	110.0	110.2
36	Duke	111.0	109.0	110.2	110.1
37	Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0
38	Virginia Tech	110.2	109.1	109.6	109.6
39	Syracuse	110.3	109.0	109.6	109.6
40	Oklahoma St.	110.2	108.5	110.1	109.6
41	Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.6	109.5
42	Oregon	108.7	108.5	109.3	108.8
43	U S C	108.7	107.2	108.1	108.0
44	Arizona St.	108.5	107.1	108.1	107.9
45	Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6
46	T C U	108.2	106.9	106.6	107.2
47	California	107.5	105.2	107.3	106.7
48	Florida St.	106.4	105.5	105.8	105.9
49	Army	104.7	105.5	105.1	105.1
50	Maryland	105.7	104.4	105.0	105.0
51	Houston	104.0	104.9	104.7	104.5
52	Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5
53	Arizona	103.6	101.9	103.7	103.0
54	Pittsburgh	103.3	102.6	102.9	103.0
55	Temple	102.5	102.5	103.2	102.7
56	Vanderbilt	102.6	102.7	102.8	102.7
57	Wake Forest	103.8	101.8	101.7	102.4
58	Colorado	101.6	102.3	102.3	102.1
59	Kansas St.	102.8	101.3	101.7	101.9
60	Memphis	101.1	102.6	101.9	101.9
61	Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.4	100.3
62	Minnesota	100.8	99.7	100.3	100.3
63	Tennessee	100.1	100.4	99.8	100.1
64	Nebraska	100.9	99.6	99.5	100.0
65	BYU	99.6	100.0	100.0	99.8
66	Baylor	100.6	98.8	100.1	99.8
67	San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5
68	N. Carolina	99.9	99.0	99.5	99.5
69	N. Texas	98.3	100.6	98.8	99.2
70	Indiana	99.6	98.5	99.4	99.2
71	Cincinnati	98.5	100.1	98.9	99.1
72	Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7
73	Toledo	98.0	99.3	97.8	98.4
74	Arkansas	99.4	96.9	98.2	98.2
75	U C L A	98.3	97.9	96.0	97.4
76	Kansas	98.2	96.8	96.5	97.2
77	Ohio U	96.3	97.6	97.2	97.0
78	U A B	95.6	98.2	96.4	96.8
79	Marshall	95.4	98.0	96.5	96.7
80	Northern Illinois	95.7	96.5	95.7	96.0
81	Air Force	95.4	96.0	95.7	95.7
82	South Florida	95.1	96.8	94.7	95.5
83	Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.4	95.4
84	Louisiana Tech	94.0	96.3	95.2	95.1
85	Wyoming	94.9	95.0	94.7	94.8
86	Eastern Michigan	94.1	95.5	94.5	94.7
87	Middle Tennessee	93.4	95.0	94.4	94.3
88	Florida Atlantic	93.8	94.7	94.1	94.2
89	Nevada	93.9	94.0	94.1	94.0
90	Tulane	93.4	93.7	93.4	93.5
91	Georgia Southern	92.5	94.4	93.3	93.4
92	Louisville	93.5	93.3	92.6	93.1
93	Navy	91.8	93.8	91.4	92.4
94	SMU	92.7	92.2	91.9	92.3
95	Western Michigan	91.3	92.9	92.3	92.2
96	Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1
97	Florida Int’l.	90.5	94.4	91.2	92.0
98	Akron	89.9	91.1	90.0	90.4
99	Tulsa	90.0	89.3	90.1	89.8
100	Illinois	89.7	89.0	88.4	89.0
101	Arkansas St.	86.6	88.0	87.9	87.5
102	Rutgers	86.2	85.1	84.5	85.3
103	New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2
104	Southern Miss.	83.9	87.0	84.3	85.1
105	Colorado St.	84.1	84.8	83.8	84.2
106	Oregon St.	85.3	83.1	83.8	84.1
107	Central Michigan	83.1	85.4	83.4	84.0
108	Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7
109	East Carolina	83.5	83.2	82.9	83.2
110	UL-Monroe	82.3	82.6	82.7	82.6
111	U N L V	81.3	82.5	81.5	81.8
112	Liberty	81.7	80.9	81.9	81.5
113	Hawaii	81.3	83.0	80.2	81.5
114	Ball St.	80.9	83.0	80.5	81.5
115	Massachusetts	80.4	82.2	81.0	81.2
116	Old Dominion	80.2	83.4	79.8	81.2
117	W. Kentucky	79.2	82.2	79.7	80.4
118	Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9
119	Kent St.	79.0	80.2	78.9	79.4
120	Georgia St.	78.4	80.3	78.8	79.2
121	Bowling Green	79.0	79.3	79.0	79.1
122	U T S A	77.5	81.5	78.1	79.1
123	Charlotte	77.7	80.2	78.4	78.8
124	San Jose St.	78.6	79.6	77.1	78.4
125	South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.6	77.0
126	Connecticut	75.1	75.7	74.1	75.0
127	U T E P	72.8	76.0	72.7	73.8
128	Texas State	72.0	74.8	72.1	73.0
129	N. Mexico St.	72.2	74.0	72.1	72.8
130	Rice	66.7	69.4	65.4	67.2

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.5	114.7	114.8	114.7	4-0	7-0
Temple	102.5	102.5	103.2	102.7	4-0	5-3
Cincinnati	98.5	100.1	98.9	99.1	3-1	7-1
South Florida	95.1	96.8	94.7	95.5	3-1	7-1
East Carolina	83.5	83.2	82.9	83.2	0-4	2-5
Connecticut	75.1	75.7	74.1	75.0	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Houston	104.0	104.9	104.7	104.5	4-0	7-1
Memphis	101.1	102.6	101.9	101.9	1-3	4-4
Tulane	93.4	93.7	93.4	93.5	2-2	3-5
Navy	91.8	93.8	91.4	92.4	1-3	2-6
SMU	92.7	92.2	91.9	92.3	2-2	3-5
Tulsa	90.0	89.3	90.1	89.8	0-4	1-7
AAC Averages	95.2	95.8	95.2	95.4
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	137.7	135.1	138.5	137.1	5-0	8-0
Boston College	115.8	113.4	115.4	114.9	3-1	6-2
N. Carolina St.	111.1	110.4	110.6	110.7	1-2	5-2
Syracuse	110.3	109.0	109.6	109.6	3-2	6-2
Florida St.	106.4	105.5	105.8	105.9	2-4	4-4
Wake Forest	103.8	101.8	101.7	102.4	1-3	4-4
Louisville	93.5	93.3	92.6	93.1	0-5	2-6
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Georgia Tech	114.3	113.3	114.1	113.9	2-3	4-4
Miami	114.6	113.0	113.9	113.9	2-2	5-3
Duke	111.0	109.0	110.2	110.1	1-3	5-3
Virginia Tech	110.2	109.1	109.6	109.6	3-1	4-3
Virginia	107.6	108.0	107.1	107.6	4-1	6-2
Pittsburgh	103.3	102.6	102.9	103.0	3-1	4-4
N. Carolina	99.9	99.0	99.5	99.5	1-4	1-6
ACC Averages	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.2	122.0	123.7	123.0	4-1	7-1
West Virginia	115.4	114.4	114.7	114.8	4-1	6-1
Iowa State	113.4	111.9	113.3	112.9	3-2	4-3
Texas	113.3	111.7	112.6	112.5	4-1	6-2
Texas Tech	111.0	109.7	110.0	110.2	3-2	5-3
Oklahoma St.	110.2	108.5	110.1	109.6	2-3	5-3
T C U	108.2	106.9	106.6	107.2	1-4	3-5
Kansas St.	102.8	101.3	101.7	101.9	1-4	3-5
Baylor	100.6	98.8	100.1	99.8	2-3	4-4
Kansas	98.2	96.8	96.5	97.2	1-4	3-5
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	126.9	125.7	127.5	126.7	5-0	7-1
Ohio St.	123.5	121.5	123.6	122.9	4-1	7-1
Penn St.	120.7	118.1	120.7	119.8	3-2	6-2
Michigan St.	117.3	115.2	116.8	116.5	4-2	5-3
Maryland	105.7	104.4	105.0	105.0	3-2	5-3
Indiana	99.6	98.5	99.4	99.2	1-5	4-5
Rutgers	86.2	85.1	84.5	85.3	0-5	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	117.0	115.1	116.8	116.3	3-2	6-2
Purdue	113.7	112.2	113.5	113.1	3-2	4-4
Wisconsin	114.1	111.6	113.4	113.0	3-2	5-3
Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0	5-1	5-3
Minnesota	100.8	99.7	100.3	100.3	1-4	4-4
Nebraska	100.9	99.6	99.5	100.0	1-4	2-6
Illinois	89.7	89.0	88.4	89.0	1-4	3-5
Big Ten Averages	109.1	107.5	108.5	108.4
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Marshall	95.4	98.0	96.5	96.7	3-1	5-2
Middle Tennessee	93.4	95.0	94.4	94.3	4-1	5-3
Florida Atlantic	93.8	94.7	94.1	94.2	1-3	3-5
Florida Int’l.	90.5	94.4	91.2	92.0	4-0	6-2
Old Dominion	80.2	83.4	79.8	81.2	1-5	2-7
W. Kentucky	79.2	82.2	79.7	80.4	0-4	1-7
Charlotte	77.7	80.2	78.4	78.8	3-2	4-4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
N. Texas	98.3	100.6	98.8	99.2	3-2	7-2
U A B	95.6	98.2	96.4	96.8	5-0	7-1
Louisiana Tech	94.0	96.3	95.2	95.1	4-1	6-2
Southern Miss.	83.9	87.0	84.3	85.1	2-2	3-4
U T S A	77.5	81.5	78.1	79.1	2-2	3-5
U T E P	72.8	76.0	72.7	73.8	0-4	0-8
Rice	66.7	69.4	65.4	67.2	0-5	1-8
CUSA Averages	85.6	88.4	86.1	86.7
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9	x	8-0
Army	104.7	105.5	105.1	105.1	x	6-2
BYU	99.6	100.0	100.0	99.8	x	4-4
Liberty	81.7	80.9	81.9	81.5	x	4-3
Massachusetts	80.4	82.2	81.0	81.2	x	3-6
N. Mexico St.	72.2	74.0	72.1	72.8	x	2-7
Indep. Averages	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.4	100.3	4-0	7-1
Ohio U	96.3	97.6	97.2	97.0	3-1	5-3
Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.4	95.4	3-1	3-5
Akron	89.9	91.1	90.0	90.4	2-2	4-3
Kent St.	79.0	80.2	78.9	79.4	0-4	1-7
Bowling Green	79.0	79.3	79.0	79.1	0-4	1-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	98.0	99.3	97.8	98.4	2-2	4-4
Eastern Michigan	94.1	95.5	94.5	94.7	2-3	4-5
Northern Illinois	95.7	96.5	95.7	96.0	4-0	5-3
Western Michigan	91.3	92.9	92.3	92.2	4-1	6-3
Central Michigan	83.1	85.4	83.4	84.0	0-5	1-8
Ball St.	80.9	83.0	80.5	81.5	2-3	3-6
MAC Averages	90.1	91.5	90.5	90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	109.4	110.7	110.8	110.3	4-0	7-1
Boise St.	109.7	109.1	109.6	109.5	4-1	6-2
Air Force	95.4	96.0	95.7	95.7	1-4	3-5
Wyoming	94.9	95.0	94.7	94.8	1-4	3-6
New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2	1-3	3-5
Colorado St.	84.1	84.8	83.8	84.2	2-3	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	112.4	111.7	112.9	112.4	4-0	7-1
San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5	3-1	6-2
Nevada	93.9	94.0	94.1	94.0	3-2	5-4
U N L V	81.3	82.5	81.5	81.8	0-4	2-6
Hawaii	81.3	83.0	80.2	81.5	3-2	6-4
San Jose St.	78.6	79.6	77.1	78.4	1-3	1-7
MWC Averages	93.8	94.3	93.7	93.9
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	121.2	119.2	122.0	120.8	4-2	6-3
Stanford	114.4	112.0	114.4	113.6	3-2	5-3
Washington St.	113.1	112.1	112.9	112.7	4-1	7-1
Oregon	108.7	108.5	109.3	108.8	2-3	5-3
California	107.5	105.2	107.3	106.7	2-3	5-3
Oregon St.	85.3	83.1	83.8	84.1	1-4	2-6
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	118.2	116.6	118.9	117.9	4-2	6-2
U S C	108.7	107.2	108.1	108.0	3-3	4-4
Arizona St.	108.5	107.1	108.1	107.9	2-3	4-4
Arizona	103.6	101.9	103.7	103.0	3-3	4-5
Colorado	101.6	102.3	102.3	102.1	2-3	5-3
U C L A	98.3	97.9	96.0	97.4	2-3	2-6
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.5	125.6	129.5	127.8	5-1	7-1
Missouri	115.9	114.4	116.9	115.7	0-4	4-4
Kentucky	115.2	114.2	115.2	114.8	5-1	7-1
Florida	114.5	112.7	115.2	114.1	4-2	6-2
S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0	3-3	4-3
Vanderbilt	102.6	102.7	102.8	102.7	1-4	4-5
Tennessee	100.1	100.4	99.8	100.1	1-4	3-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	140.5	138.5	141.9	140.3	5-0	8-0
L S U	120.1	119.7	121.4	120.4	4-1	7-1
Mississippi St.	119.0	116.8	119.8	118.6	2-3	5-3
Auburn	115.5	114.3	117.1	115.6	2-3	5-3
Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	113.9	113.4	3-2	5-3
Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5	1-3	5-3
Arkansas	99.4	96.9	98.2	98.2	0-5	2-7
SEC Averages	114.3	113.0	114.7	114.0
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7	3-1	5-2
Georgia Southern	92.5	94.4	93.3	93.4	4-0	7-1
Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1	4-0	6-2
Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9	2-2	5-3
Georgia St.	78.4	80.3	78.8	79.2	1-3	2-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	86.6	88.0	87.9	87.5	1-3	4-4
Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7	2-2	4-4
UL-Monroe	82.3	82.6	82.7	82.6	2-2	4-4
South Alabama	76.2	78.1	76.6	77.0	1-3	2-6
Texas State	72.0	74.8	72.1	73.0	0-4	2-6
Sun Belt Averages	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Conference Strength Ratings
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.3	113.0	114.7	114.0
2	ACC	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	108.9	108.9
4	BTEN	109.1	107.5	108.5	108.4
5	P-12	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	95.2	95.8	95.2	95.4
7	MWC	93.8	94.3	93.7	93.9
8	IND	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
9	MAC	90.1	91.5	90.5	90.7
10	CUSA	85.6	88.4	86.1	86.7
11	SUN	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Top 5 Group of 5
1	Central Florida
2	Fresno St.
3	Houston
4	Utah St.
5	Georgia Southern

PiRate Ratings Predictions for the First College Football Playoff Poll

(To be released Tuesday on ESPN at 7:00 PM EDT)

1 Clemson Tigers

2. Alabama Crimson Tide

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

4. LSU Tigers

 

PiRate Ratings Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	[California]	Utah St.
Cure	AAC	SBC	[Eastern Michigan]	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	USC
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Coastal Carolina
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Central Florida	Marshall
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	South Florida	[Arizona]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	[Duke]	Middle Tennessee
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Northern Illinois	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Toledo	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Cincinnati	[Western Michigan]
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Memphis	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	Maryland	North Texas
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Georgia Tech	Minnesota
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	[Nevada]	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[BYU]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Syracuse	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Virginia Tech	Tennessee
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	North Carolina St.	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	Troy
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia	Mississippi St.
Peach	At-large	At-large	West Virginia	Georgia
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Pittsburgh
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Boston College	USC
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Missouri
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Purdue	Washington
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	South Carolina
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Auburn
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Kentucky	Houston
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	LSU
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

This Week’s Must-Watch TV Games

This may be the top overall week of the college football season, because there are about two dozen important games with about half being considered crucial games.

As this week begins the final month of the season, the college football schedule now consumes five days per week.  The Mid-American Conference will now have games on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights.  There are other big-time weeknight games this week too.

Thursday

The key game on Thursday night this week is the Central Florida versus Temple game in Orlando.  With Houston now looking like the for sure champion in the West and with a likely 11-1 regular season record, UCF must win out to stay ahead of the Cougars in the race for the Peach or Fiesta Bowl bid.  If the Owls lose at home this week or to USF in the final week, then even a win over 11-1 Houston might not be enough to leapfrog over Fresno State or Utah State, if either team finishes 12-1.

This game will air on ESPN at 7:30 PM Eastern

Friday

We have one crucial game and one bowl eliminator game on Friday night.

Virginia hosts Pittsburgh in a crucial ACC game between the Coastal Division’s only two one-conference loss teams.  The winner will become the favorite to get the right to play Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.  The loser is looking at one of the ACC’s #3 tier games.

This game will air on ESPN2 at 7:30 PM Eastern.

Later on Friday, Arizona hosts Colorado in a game where the two teams are going in opposite directions.  Colorado began the season at 5-0 and has lost three consecutive games, including an embarrassing loss at home to Oregon State.  Arizona began the season looking like a possible double-digit loss team, but the Wildcats have since begun to play quite well with improvement every week.  They are now 4-5 and a win will get them to .500 for the first time this year.  The winner has a bowl bid in their sites, while the loser looks like a for sure 5-7 team.

This game will air on FS1 at 10:30 PM Eastern

 

Saturday

Make plans to stay indoors on Saturday.  If you get some cold Autumn winds, it might be a great day for a fire in the fire place and a nice bowl of stew.  Look at just a host of very interesting games.

All Times Eastern

12:00 PM

Baylor vs. Oklahoma St. on FS1: This is a bowl elimination game.

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina SECn: South Carolina must win to have a real chance for six wins and bowl eligibility.  Ole Miss is ineligible for a bowl but can clinch a non-losing season with a win.

North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech on ACCn: With the upset over Virginia Tech in Blacksburg in a game where the Yellow Jackets ran for 465 yards, the Techsters were like the Phoenix rising from the ashes.  If Tech can beat North Carolina, then Paul Johnson’s team can get to 6-6.  North Carolina can maybe get a new coach in 2019.  There are a couple of hot candidates out of the Sun Belt that may be leading contenders for this sleeping giant if Fedora gets the pink slip/

4:30 PM

One of two incredible SEC games on CBS this weekend takes place in the Bluegrass, where Kentucky hosts Georgia in a game to decide the SEC East Championship.  Kentucky miraculously beat Missouri in Columbia on an untimed play after the final clock hit zero.  Georgia won the World’s Largest Outdoor Cup of Tea Party over Florida in impressive fashion, making LSU’s defense look really good.  Kentucky will enjoy its best home field advantage for this game in years.  It will be like the advantage their basketball team has at Rupp Arena, but will it be enough to compete with this Georgia team?

In West Lafayette, Indiana, Iowa visits Purdue in a what basically will be a semifinal game for the Big Ten West Division title.  Both teams have 3-2 conference marks along with Wisconsin, while Northwestern is in the lead at 5-1.

This game airs on ESPN2.

In the Big 12 on Fox, you can watch West Virginia visit Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns in a game that will go far in deciding which team besides Oklahoma will play in the Big 12 Championship Game.  If Texas wins this game, and then WVU beats Oklahoma in Morgantown in the season finale, the Big 12 Championship Game would decide the Sugar Bowl participant, as there will be no chance for a Playoff berth.  And, if this scenario played out with the Mountaineers, Longhorns, and Sooners tied at 7-2, Oklahoma would finish in third place in this tiebreaker and miss the conference championship game.

3:45 PM

In a game with Playoff implications, Michigan hosts Penn State at the Big House.  The Wolverines are likely to be just off the pace in the first College Football Playoff poll, but a win here plus a win at Ohio State would give the Maize and Blue an excellent shot at one of the Big 4 bids should they handle the West Division champion in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game.  Of course, there is a team down south that thinks they will still handle UM when they visit a certain horseshoe.

5:00 PM

The Pac-12 South Race is a muddied mess with all six teams still alive as the calendar hits November.   If Herm Edwards can fire up his Arizona State squad into a frenzy that leads to an upset of Utah in this game, then every team in the division will have at least three conference losses!  A Sun Devil win could be the beginning of what ends up a three or four team tie.  Catch this game on the Pac-12 Network.

7:15 PM

Notre Dame travels around the arc of Lake Michigan to play Northwestern in Evanston.  It will be cold and could be wet Saturday night.  On paper, it looks like a double-digit win for the undefeated Irish, but on national TV at home, Northwestern could hang around and have a chance at the end.  Notre Dame likely doesn’t get a playoff bid with a loss in this game.  It airs on ESPN.

8:00 PM

This is the biggest game of the season to date.  Alabama heads to Baton Rouge to face LSU in the Tiger’s Den.  Both teams had a week off to prepare for this game, almost like two Super Bowl teams preparing for their game.  On paper, LSU (and no other team for that matter) does not match up well against the Tide.  Alabama might still be favored if they played an all-star team of players from other 13 SEC teams.  This game could be a blowout like all other ‘Bama games, but if the LSU defense can limit the Tide to 28 points, and Joe Burrow can pass for 200 yards like he did against Georgia, then this could still be an interesting game at the start of the fourth quarter.  Watch it on CBS.

There will be another game worth watching at the same time as the LSU-Alabama game, and it could be a big surprise game.  Oklahoma plays Texas Tech in Lubbock in a contest that must be considered a trap game for the Sooners.  Tech has won big in the past over highly-ranked teams coming to Lubbock on Saturday night.  The Red Raiders can score 40 points on almost anybody in the Big 12, so the question is can they hold OU under half a hundred?  This game airs on ABC.

10:45 PM

If you still have working eyeballs by this time, the Washington State-California game is sure to entertain you.  You have to give a lot of credit to “The Pirate”, Mike Leach for taking a program that was at the bottom of the Pac-12 and making it possibly the Rose Bowl team in five years.  With quarterback Gardner Minshew completing 71% of his passes for more than 400 yards per game, he deserves some mention in the Heisman Trophy talks, since he has guided the Cougars to a 7-1 record.  As for Cal, the Bears just totally stopped Jake Browning in their win over Washington, and Cal may now bet the stronger of the two Bay Area Pac-12 teams.  This should be an interesting nightcap, and you can watch it on ESPN.

 

For those few of you that have already inquired as to whether a certain poem will be published in this site, don’t fret.  The NFL preview will have that poem.  It isn’t November until the Autumn winds bluster in from the sea.

 

2010 Pac-10 Football Preview

Go to www.piratings.webs.com where we beat the spread 60.4% in 2009!

 

2010 Pac-10 Conference Preview

Pac-10 Commissioner Larry Scott attempted to shake the college football world in June by luring Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado to form the Pac-16.  Instead, he had to settle for just CU and Utah.

Southern California made more headlines after the football season than during it, and they continued to stay in the news all summer.  After being placed on major probation, the Trojans will not be eligible for the postseason.  They lost several players who were allowed to become eligible immediately at other schools.  It cost Athletics Director Mike Garrett his job.

Pete Carroll left for the Seattle Seahawks before this all came to a head.  So, who is the honest-to-a-fault replacement?  Who is the guy that has been hired to run a clean program?  LANE KIFFIN!  Yes, the ex-Oakland Raiders coach, who left Alameda County in a cloud of controversy.  The ex-Tennessee Volunteers coach, who left the Vols looking at possible probation.  He brings Ed Orgeron with him.  Is the death penalty still an option in football?

USC is out of the bowl picture, and now the league will need six bowl eligible teams other than the Trojans to fulfill their contractual agreements.  This league is so balanced; any of the top seven teams could win the conference championship.  The Oregon Ducks lost Jeremiah Masoli, and still the PiRate Computer shows them to be the most powerful team in the nation in week one.  That aside, we cannot see Oregon, or any other Pac-10 team running the table in conference play, and we believe that two losses will earn a piece of the title.

Note: The PiRate Ratings are not meant to be used to predict the outcome of future games.  They are usable only as a basis for the current week’s games.  We do not use these ratings to make our selections.  They are only a starting point.  The predictions given below, as for every college conference and NFL division, are not taken from the ratings themselves.

Predictions

Pos	Team	P10	W-L
1	Oregon	7-2	10-2
2	Arizona	7-2	10-2
3	Oregon State	6-3	7-5
4	California	6-3	9-3
5	Southern Cal	5-4	8-5
6	Stanford	5-4	7-5
7	Washington	4-5	6-6
8	U C L A	4-5	5-7
9	Arizona State	1-8	3-9
10	Washington State	0-9	1-11

 

BCS (Rose) Bowl: Oregon

Alamo Bowl: Arizona

Holiday Bowl: California

Sun Bowl: Washington

Las Vegas Bowl: Stanford

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Oregon State

 

 

Team By Team Breakdown

Team	Arizona Wildcats
Head Coach	Mike Stoops
Colors	Cardinal and Navy
City	Tucson, AZ
2009 Record
Conference	6-3
Overall	8-5
PiRate Rating	116.0
National Rating	21
2010 Prediction
Conference	7-2
Overall	10-2

 

Offense: The biggest loss on this side of the ball is offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes, who took over at Louisiana Tech.  Arizona couldn’t move the ball until Dykes brought the “Air Raid” offense to Tucson in 2007.

The Wildcats have two very capable quarterbacks.  Starter Nick Foles led ‘Zona to the brink of the Pac-10 Championship last year, coming up just short in overtime against Oregon.  Foles passed for 2,486 yards and 19 scores and should post better numbers this year.  Backup Matt Scott is a dual-threat runner-passer.  He forces opponents to prepare for two different game plans.

Coach Mike Stoops can call on multiple players to line up at receiver.  He can go with two tight ends or no tight ends and has talented choices both ways.  Juron Criner led the ‘Cats with 582 receiving yards, and he will get plenty of help from David Douglas, Bug Wright, and tight ends A.J. Simmons and David Roberts.

The Wildcats used a trio of backs last year and should continue to split the carries.  Keola Antolin led with 637 on the ground and caught 17 short passes. Nic Grigsby added 567 yards with an eye-popping 7.2 yard average.

A senior-dominated offensive line should continue to open running holes and protect the passers.  Arizona surrendered just 13 sacks in 2009.  Center Colin Baxter earned 1^st Team All-Pac-10 honors last year, and he should be an early draft pick next Spring.

Can Arizona continue their dominance on this side of the ball without Dykes calling the plays?  We say they can.  Look for the Wildcats to score 26-30 points and gain 375-400 yards per game.

Defense: Stoops loses his defensive coordinator as well; his brother Mark went to Florida State.  He also loses seven starters, including his top four tacklers.  The biggest concern is at linebacker, where there will be three new players in the starting lineup.  Two of the projected starters were junior college players last year, and the third saw limited action here.  None of the graduated players were top caliber, so the drop in production could be minimal.

The front line should be quite good.  Ends Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed return to anchor the perimeter.  Elmore finished third in the league with 10 ½ sacks. 

The secondary returns a 1^st Team All-Pac-10 performer in cornerback Trevin Wade.  Wade led the team with five interceptions and nine passes broken up.

The Wildcats are expected to take a small step backward on this side of the ball, but we believe the defense will regress less than the offense improves.  Arizona may control the clock more in an attempt to help the defense.  Look for 21-24 points and 300-325 yards allowed, or about the same as last season.

Schedule: Outside of league play, Arizona has one easy game, one difficult game, and one interesting game.  They start off at Toledo on Friday night, September 3.  The Rockets will test the new defense.  They host The Citadel the following week, and they should light up the scoreboard.  The following week, Big Ten contender Iowa visits Arizona Stadium. 

The Wildcats face Oregon in Eugene and Stanford in Palo Alto.  We could see Stoops and company coming up one game short again this season, but win double-digit games, as long as the defense gels.

Team	Arizona State Sun Devils
Head Coach	Dennis Erickson
Colors	Maroon and Gold
City	Tempe, AZ
2009 Record
Conference	2-7
Overall	4-8
PiRate Rating	99.0
National Rating	62
2010 Prediction
Conference	1-8
Overall	3-9

 

Offense: The Sun Devils suffered through consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1946-47, and if they don’t right the ship this year, it could be the end for Coach Dennis Erickson.  After starting his ASU tenure at 8-0, he has gone 11-18 since.

A lack of offense has been the reason for the decline in Tempe.  With just three starters returning on this side of the ball, it could spell doom for State this year.  They lost their top runner, top passer, and top two receivers, so you have to consider this a rebuilding season.

The Sun Devils will switch to a no-huddle, wide-open offense under first-year offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone.  Piloting that attack could be one of three players.  Former Michigan quarterback Steven Threet was thought to be the front-runner, but Brock Osweiler and Samson Szakacsy are battling for the starting nod.  Look for Erickson to use Szakacsy as a running threat off the bench, and we believe Threet will open as starter.

There will be a two-man platoon at running back as well.  Cameron Marshall should start.  He rushed for just 280 yards and two touchdowns last year as the top reserve.  True freshman Deantre Lewis will get a hard look at supplanting Marshall.  He will see action right away.

Keeping with the program, ASU will rotate receivers, because they have several decent but no great pass catchers.  Kerry Taylor and Gerell Robinson are the two most experienced receivers, but they combined for just 49 catches and 537 yards.

The offensive line took a beating with the unexpected loss of loss of guard Zach Schlink to a career-ending knee injury.  Backup guard Jon Hargis was already out with an ACL injury, so there is going to be some depth issues in the line.  Center Garth Gerhart is the only experienced lineman left.

With a new offense and several new players, it looks grim for the Sun Devils this year.  We don’t believe they can improve on last year’s mediocre numbers.  Call it 17-21 points and 300-325 yards per game this year.

Defense: Things don’t look much better on this side of the ball, as ASU lost five of their top six tacklers, including most of their best pass defenders.  In a pass-happy league, this spells trouble.

Arizona State needs a spectacular pass rush this year, and they have two excellent tackles that could fit the bill.  Lawrence Guy and Saia Falahola combined for 8 ½ sacks.  End James Brooks has the potential to be a pass rushing stud, and we believe he will lead the Devils in sacks this year.

Middle linebacker Vontaze Burfict is nursing a bad ankle in August practice, but he should be ready for the season.  He is the only returning starter to the linebacking unit.  Burfict is strong against both the run and pass.

The secondary was one of the best in the league last year, holding opposing quarterbacks to just 53% completions and 189 yards.  All four starters are gone (combined for six interceptions and 18 passes broken up).  Former starter Omar Bolden returns to his cornerback spot after missing 2009 with an injury.  The other projected saw action last year, so the fall-off shouldn’t be severe.

Arizona State gave up just 21 points and 298 yards per game last year, which would have been good enough for a 9-3 record with a decent offense.  Expect those numbers to suffer some this year.  We’ll call for 23-26 points and 320-340 yards allowed per game.

Schedule: The Sun Devils will go 2-1 outside of the Pac-10.  They host Portland State and Northern Arizona, and they play at Wisconsin.  In conference play, they fortunately host Washington State; that is their only sure win in the league.  They get two bye weeks in conference play, so a road game against Cal and home game with UCLA following those bye weeks will give the coaching staff time to come up with solid plans.  Maybe, they can get one more conference win, but we cannot see ASU sniffing bowl eligibility this year.

Team	California Golden Bears
Head Coach	Jeff Tedford
Colors	Blue and Gold
City	Berkeley, CA
2009 Record
Conference	5-4
Overall	8-5
PiRate Rating	112.5
National Rating	31
2010 Prediction
Conference	6-3
Overall	9-3

 

Offense: Coach Jeff Tedford has consistently put together well-balance, high-scoring offenses in Berkeley.  His Bear teams average 30 points per game year in and year out.  He has an experienced quarterback, a running back sure to top 1,000 yards rushing, and a stable of excellent receivers.  His offensive line is talented and very experienced.  So, it is easy to be optimistic about this season’s attack side.

Quarterback Kevin Riley won’t challenge the league’s top passers in passer rating, total yards, or touchdown passes, but the senior knows how to move his team.  Expect Riley to pass for 3,000 yards this year.

The Bears lost Jahvid Best who went to the NFL a year early.  Best was injured last year, and Shane Vereen took his place in the lineup for the last four games.  He finished the season with 952 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns and caught 25 passes.  Covaughn DeBoskie-Johnson will get some touches as well.  In limited action last year, he averaged 6.8 yards per rush.

Marvin Jones and Jeremy Ross will not team to catch 150 passes, but both can get open deep and burn a secondary for a quick score.  Tight end Anthony Miller is one of the top three at his position in the Pac-10, and he should improve on his 26 receptions of 2009.

The offensive line returns four starters that have combined for 70 career starts.  Tackles Mitchell Schwartz and Matt Summers-Gavin form a great pair of outside blockers.

Cal should top last year’s offensive averages by a little.  Tedford’s teams usually score 28-33 points per game, and we will go for 31-35 this year with 400+ yards of total offense per game.

Defense: The Bears were too generous on this side of the ball last year, and it led to a conference average of 28 points allowed.  Six starters return, but there are enough holes on this side to keep Cal from contending for a top 10 finish.

The Bears switched to a 3-4 defense last year, and the front seven performed well against the run.  Even with 31 sacks, the pass defense gave up almost 270 yards per game.

Up front, two starters return to the three-man trench.  Nose tackle Derrick Hill controls the middle and commands more than one blocker to move out of the way.  You won’t see his name high up in the defensive stats, but he deserves an assist every time the inside linebackers get in on a stop.  End Cameron Jordan dumped quarterbacks six times last year, and he will have to step it up with the departure of Tyson Alualu, a first round pick of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Linebackers Mike Mohamed and Mychal Kendricks return after finishing one-two in tackles a year ago (combined for 183).  Both proved dangerous against the run and dropping off into the underneath pass zones.

The secondary was a weak point in 2009, and two starters must be replaced.  Cal picked off just 11 passes, but they knocked away several.  Unfortunately, the top pass defenders have moved on.  Safety Sean Cattouse intercepted one pass and broke up three; he leads the group this season.

Cal just doesn’t have enough talent on this side of the ball to consistently stop the great offenses in this league.  Look for the Bears to surrender 25-28 points and 375-400 yards.

Schedule: Cal should go 3-0 before league play begins.  The Bears host UC Davis and Colorado before jogging over to Reno to take on Nevada in what should be a great game.  Road games with Arizona, USC, and Oregon State will be tough, and home games with Oregon, Stanford, and Washington won’t be easy.  We’ll call for a 6-3 conference mark and 9-3 overall.  In a wild season, 6-3 could actually challenge in the wild Pac-10.

Team	Oregon Ducks
Head Coach	Chip Kelly
Colors	Green and Yellow
City	Eugene, OR
2009 Record
Conference	8-1
Overall	10-3
PiRate Rating	126.2
National Rating	1
2010 Prediction
Conference	7-2
Overall	10-2

 

Offense: Is it possible that the Ducks can contend for the national championship after booting Heisman Trophy candidate Jeremiah Masoli off the team?  The PiRate computer says the Ducks are the number one team on September 1 (*–see note at the end about why the PiRate Ratings are used for just the next week of the season and are not meant to be used to look forward).

Second year head man Chip Kelly had to deal with the loss of a key weapon after one game last year and found an even better replacement.  Tailback LaMichael James rushed for 1,546 yards and 14 touchdowns after LeGarrette Blount opted for a boxing career that lasted one punch.  James could carry the ball 300 times this season and threaten the 2,000 yard mark if there wasn’t such great depth here.  True freshman Lache Seastrunk and sophomore Kenjon Barner could top 1,000 yards rushing if they either was the starter.  Look for the Ducks to top 200 yards, maybe 250, on the ground this season.

Making the running game all the more powerful is the return of the entire starting offensive line.  It is the best run-blocking line in the league and ranks with Ohio State and Wisconsin as one of the best run-blocking fronts in college football.  Both guards, Mark Asper and Carson York, should make either 1^st or 2^nd Team All-Pac-10.  Tackle Bo Thran will do so as well.

Filling the big shoes of Masoli will not be easy, but Kelly has two talented possibilities.  Pure drop back passer Nate Costa has worse knees than Joe Namath, but the senior has started and won in the Pac-10 before.  Sophomore Darron Thomas has the tools to be another Masoli, but he has to learn to cut down on mistakes.

Whoever starts at quarterback will have a decent group of receivers on hand.  D.J. Davis, Lavasier Tuinei, and Jeff Maehl all return after starting last season and combining for 100 receptions.  Oregon will use more play-action passes this year, and we expect the yards per catch to increase.

It looks like another big year on this side of the ball for the Ducks.  We think they can top 40 points per game, but we believe Kelly may try to control the clock a little more this season to help his defense.  We’ll call for 35-38 points and 410-440 yards per game.

Defense: The Ducks gave up 73 scrimmage plays per game last year and still made it to the Rose Bowl.  Expect Kelly to address this and try to hold onto the ball more this year.  If this defense can defend 10 fewer plays, Oregon could run the table.

Eight of the top nine tacklers return from last year including the Pac-10’s sack leader.  End Kenny Rowe made 11 ½ sacks and 15 total tackles for loss.  He knocked down four passes as well.  To the inside, Brandon Bair made 8 ½ tackles behind the line.

Two potential 1^st team all-conference players line up at linebacker.  Spencer Paysinger and Casey Matthews can blitz and disrupt plays and can cover their pass zones as competently as anybody.  The duo combined for 162 tackles, 4 ½ sacks, 12 ½ total tackles for loss, and 13 passes defended.

The secondary is better than the other two units and the best in the league.  The move of former starting linebacker Eddie Pleasant to safety makes the Ducks tough against the run and the pass on the back line.  Pleasant will blitz and get to the QB, and he will get his paws on a half dozen or more passes.  Cornerback Talmadge Jackson intercepted four passes and broke up six.

Oregon has the pieces in place to improve considerably on this side of the ball, but the Pac-10 offenses as a whole are even better this year than last.  Look for the Ducks to give up 18-23 points and 325-350 yards per game.

Schedule: Oregon will get off to a quick 3-0 start before Pac-10 play begins.  The Ducks open with New Mexico at home, visit a rebuilding Tennessee in week two, and host Portland State the following week.

We give the Ducks the leg up on Arizona in league play because the two teams face off at Autzen Stadium, one of the best home field advantages in college football (The Ducks’ winning percentage at home is more than 20% better than on the road in the 21^st Century).  We think UO will not be able to run the table, because the Pac-10 is just too balanced.  Look for them to stumble once or twice.  The Beavers will be waiting for revenge in the Civil War on December 4.

Team	Oregon State Beavers
Head Coach	Mike Riley
Colors	Orange and Black
City	Corvallis, OR
2009 Record
Conference	6-3
Overall	8-5
PiRate Rating	113.7
National Rating	24
2010 Prediction
Conference	6-3
Overall	7-5

 

Offense: The Beavers have improved offensively the last four seasons, going from 27.8 points and 360 yards in 2006 to 31.5 points and 411 yards last year.  Look for a small retreat this season.

OSU lost quarterback Sean Canfield to the New Orleans Saints, and his replacement is a lightly experienced Sophomore.  Canfield passed for almost 3,300 yards and 21 touchdowns, and new QB Ryan Katz will not duplicate those numbers.

The best running back in the State of Oregon and best in the Pac-10 resides in Corvallis and not Eugene.  Jacquizz “Quizz” Rodgers raced for 1,440 yards and 21 touchdowns and also caught 78 passes last year.  Coach Mike Riley will use Rodgers to take the heat off Katz and force secondary defenders to cheat up.

James Rodgers is to pass catching what Quizz is to running.  He is the best in the Pac-10.  Last year, he led the league in receptions by 21 catches!  His 91 receptions went for 1,034 yards.  His presence will make it easier for Jordan Bishop and Markus Wheaton.

An experienced offensive line returns four starters including Freshman All-American tackle Michael Philipp and senior center Alex Linnenkohl, a three-year regular.

If Katz can develop and take enough heat off the running game, the Beavers have a championship-caliber offense.  We think he will have some growing pains, but by mid-October, OSU will be tough to stop.  Call it 28-33 points and 400-425 yards per game.

Defense: The Beavers have come up short by one game the last three years because they have not been able to stop the elite teams.  Against the rest, their defenses have looked outstanding.

For OSU to challenge this year, the pass rush has to improve.  The Beavers had just 17 sacks last year, and they return three starting linemen who should lead the team and move that number past 20.  Tackles Stephen Paea and Brennan Olander are even better against the run, and opponents will not find much success running the ball inside.  End Gabe Miller needs a breakout year after sharing the lead with Paea for the QB Sacks lead with three.  He needs to approach double digit sacks if the Beavers have a chance to make it back to the Rose Bowl for the first time in 47 years.

Linebacker is a bit of a concern with the departure of their top two tacklers.  Dwight Roberson, Tony Wilson, and Keith Pankey are not all-conference performers.

Three starters return to a better than average secondary.  Safeties Cameron Collins and Lance Mitchell combined 142 tackles and 14 passed defended.  Cornerback James Dockery intercepted two passes and knocked away eight others.  New cornerback Brandon Hardin saw extensive action last year intercepting a pass and batting away four others.

Oregon State has to step it up and come up with better defensive efforts against the top teams in the league.  They padded their stats against the weaker teams.  There is no way their defensive numbers will be as good as last year, but they could still compete for the Pac-10 title.  We’ll predict 25-28 points and 350-375 yards allowed per game.

Schedule: Who made this schedule?  He should be tarred and feathered.  OSU must play both TCU and Boise State.  When this schedule was made, those two teams were already powerful.  The third non-conference team is Louisville, and when they were put in the schedule, they were as good as the other two.  The Beavers will be out of the national title picture before October.

In league play, the best thing going for OSU is that they get USC and Oregon at home.  The bad news is they get Arizona, Washington, and Stanford on the road.  They will need five conference wins to be bowl eligible.  We’ll say they get six.

Team	Southern California Trojans
Head Coach	Lane Kiffin
Colors	Cardinal and Gold
City	Los Angeles, CA
2009 Record
Conference	5-4
Overall	9-4
PiRate Rating	110.9
National Rating	34
2010 Prediction
Conference	5-4
Overall	8-5

 

Offense:  Cue the organ music.  It’s time for the daily soap opera brought to you by the makers of Probation Suds.  On today’s episode of How Lame Can You Get, we find Lane Kiffin delaying the signing of papers to release ex-players and recruits who do not want to stay in LA.

Southern Cal received two years probation for numerous recruiting violations, and they brought in a coach that already had the NCAA investigators burning the midnight oil.  Eight key players and recruits left, able to become immediately eligible at other schools.

With all that aside, the Trojans still have lots of talent.  If enough have chips on their shoulders, and the team stays healthy, they could even take it out on the rest of the nation and run the table.  We think that is unlikely.

Quarterback Matt Barkley had a fine freshman season.  He completed 60% of his passes for 2,735 yards and 15 touchdowns.  He also threw 14 interceptions.  Backup Mitch Mustain was once considered the best quarterback prospect in the nation, and he started half a season at Arkansas as a freshman.

While there isn’t a Marcus Allen, Anthony Davis, Ricky Bell, or Charles White on this roster, USC has several talented running backs even with the loss of their 1,000 yard rushing starter from last year.  Junior Marc Tyler may be about to emerge and live up to his press clippings.  Allen Bradford, C.J. Gable, and fullback Stanley Havili will all see action as ball carriers.  Havili is a threat as a pass catcher too.

The Trojans lost their top two receivers, but they have a lot of talent ready to step in.  Ronald Johnson and Brice Butler have some game experience, and tight end Jordan Cameron could emerge as a force in the middle of zones.

Only two starters return to the offensive line, and a projected starter has gone while the getting was good.  All the new starters were highly sought recruits, so the drop in talent won’t be that much.

USC’s offensive numbers could go up a little this year, because Kiffin will run up the score on teams that have no chance.  Expect 27-31 points and 400 total yards.

Defense: The Trojans lost too much on this side of the ball to dominate or even compete for the Pac-10 title in our opinion.  You don’t replace Taylor Mays, Josh Pinkard, Kevin Thomas, and Everson Griffen with untested recruits and expect the same results.

Jurrell Casey and Nick Perry give the Trojans a good base to rebuild the defensive line.  Perry’s eight sacks tied for the team lead.  Wes Horton is a decent end, but he is not all-conference material.

All three starting linebackers return, but the Trojans are now a bit thin here due to a couple of defections.  Chris Galippo, Malcolm Smith, and Michael Morgan are the best trio in the league.

There are no returning starters to the secondary, and in the Pac-10, that will get you beat.  Cornerback T.J. Bryant will be the leader of this unit, but he will not come close to matching Mays or Thomas.  Shareece Wright was supposed to start in 2008 and again in 2009, but he’s been off the field for two years due to injuries and ineligibility.

Southern Cal gave up 11 more points and 118 more yards in 2009 than in 2008.  That trend will continue this year, but the weakening will be less.  Call it 21-25 points and 325-350 yards allowed.

Schedule: USC will play 13 games without going to a bowl thanks to an opening game at Hawaii.  They host Virginia and Notre Dame and play at Minnesota.  The Trojans could go 4-0, but we will call for 3-1.

In league play, USC travels to Stanford, Arizona, and Oregon State.  They host Oregon, Cal, and Washington.  They have the talent and swagger to play spoiler, but we think the personnel losses and general malaise creeping into this program will cause them to settle in the middle of the pack.  Remember, they were tied for 5^th last year at 5-4.  We will call for a repeat in 2010.

Team	Stanford Cardinal
Head Coach	Jim Harbaugh
Colors	Cardinal and White
City	Palo Alto, CA
2009 Record
Conference	6-3
Overall	8-5
PiRate Rating	117.9
National Rating	18
2010 Prediction
Conference	5-4
Overall	7-5

 

Offense: The Cardinal finished in a tie for second last year thanks to an offense that topped 200 yards both on the ground and through the air.  With eight starters returning, even with the loss of their star running back, they should field another excellent offensive squad in 2010.

Expect the Cardinal to look more like many of the great teams from their past this year.  They will pass the ball with great effectiveness thanks to the return of the next Jim Plunkett.  Andrew Luck passed for 2,575 yards as a true freshman with 13 touchdowns to just four picks.  Expect Luck to top 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns this year and challenge Jake Locker for 1^st Team All-Pac-10 and 1^st Team All-American (like the good ole days when Plunkett and Sonny Sixkiller banged heads).

Coach Jim Harbaugh is licking his chops over the return of both starting wideouts and one of his two starting tight ends from last year.  Chris Owusu is a serious deep threat every time he catches the ball, but he has to cut out all the drops.  When he held onto the ball last year, he averaged 18.4 yards with his 37 receptions.  Ryan Whalen just missed 1,000 yards, ending with 926 on a team-leading 57 catches.  Tight end Coby Fleener caught 21 passes, and he will get more looks this year.

Replacing Toby Gerhart’s 1,871 yards and 28 touchdowns couldn’t be replicated with any back in the NCAA.  He was so consistent, in the manner of Larry Csonka and Jim Taylor, and that will be missed more than anything.  At this point in the preseason, Harbaugh has said that as many as six backs could see the field.  Jeremy Stewart, Stepfan, Taylor, and Tyler Gaffney appear to have a slight edge at the moment, but true freshmen Anthony Wilkerson and Ricky Seale and redshirt freshman Usua Amanam (the quickest back on the team) still have a real shot.  Don’t forget fullback Owen Marecic.  He will see action on both sides of the ball, as he has been moved to linebacker.

The offensive line ranks just behind Oregon for the best in the league.  Four starters return from a unit that gave up just seven sacks and opened holes for backs to run for 5.3 yards per attempt.  Andrew Phillips and David DeCastro make the best guard combo in the league.

Stanford will throw the ball more and run less this year.  The consistency may suffer a bit, but there will be days when this team cannot be stopped.  Look for the Cardinal to challenge for top scoring team in the league and once again score 35-40 points per game while gaining 425-450 yards per game.

Defense: Like many of the contenders in this league, Stanford doesn’t have a championship-caliber defense to match its offense.  As a result, the Cardinal will get in offensive shootouts with four or five opponents.  Remember, they beat Oregon last year 51-42, giving up an amazing 570 total yards and still winning.

Harbaugh brought in NFL veteran defensive coach Vic Fangio to rework the defense.  The Cardinal will switch to the same 3-4 defense Fangio used with the Baltimore Ravens.  He couldn’t bring Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata, and Terrell Suggs with him.

All 3-4 defenses must have a big, strong nose guard to occupy more than one blocker and defend the middle.  Sione Fua fits that bill.  At 6-2 and 307, he will protect his linebackers behind him.  Ends Brian Buicke and Matthew Masifilo have starting experience, and former end Thomas Keiser dropped back one line.

Keiser anchors a solid quartet of linebackers.  He finished third in the league with 15 total tackles for loss (9 QB sacks) and should be a terror blitzing from outside.  Marecic will start next to him.  We think these two will work well together.

Three starters return to a secondary that gave up 265 passing yards per game last year.  If the front seven can improve on the 21 QB sacks of last year, this quartet should post better numbers.  Cornerback Richard Sherman led SU with 10 passes defended.  Strong safety Delano Howell supplied great run support.

With Gerhart, Stanford still saw opponents run three more scrimmage plays per game than they enjoyed.  The defense had to defend 68 plays per game.  If that number goes up into the 70’s, it is bad news.  The offense needs to help the defense out and have more time-consuming drives. 

We look for SU to give up 23-27 points and 375-400 yards per game this year. 

Schedule: A home game with Sacramento State kicks off the season.  Two weeks later Wake Forest comes to Stanford Stadium.  The Cardinal follow that up with a visit to South Bend to take on Notre Dame.  We figure the Cardinal will be 2-1, but they could be 3-0.

The defense just doesn’t have enough for us to place SU among the top three in the league this year.  We think they will have a chance in every game—a chance to win and a chance to lose.  Only a home game with Washington State is a given.  They should split the other eight Pac-10 contests and finish 5-4, earning another bowl bid.

Team	U C L A  Bruins
Head Coach	Rick Neuheisel
Colors	Blue and Gold
City	Los Angeles, CA
2009 Record
Conference	3-6
Overall	7-6
PiRate Rating	109.4
National Rating	39
2010 Prediction
Conference	4-5
Overall	5-7

 

Offense: Year two saw Coach Rick Neuheisel turn his alma mater’s team around, winning seven games and the inaugural Eagle Bank Bowl after going 4-8 the year before.

The UCLA running game was too weak to take the heat off a very good West Coast passing game.  The Bruins improved slightly from 83 to 115 yards per game, but that mark beat only Washington State.

Watch for UCLA to implement the Pistol Offense into their repertoire this year and run the zone option.  Can sophomore quarterback Kevin Prince run the option?  He’s dealing with a strained back muscle in practice.  He suffered a broken jaw in a game last year, so this may not be the best fit for him.  Richard Brehaut is not a runner either.  Juco transfer Darius Bell is the one true dual threat quarterback on the roster, and he could eventually emerge as the go to guy.

No running backs on this roster will strike fear in the defenses of the league.  Johnathan Franklin led the Bruins with 566 yards.  We expect true freshman Malcolm Jones to eventually become the lead back.

The passing game should continue to be strong thanks to the return of Nelson Rosario and Taylor Embree.  They both caught more than 40 passes last year.  Rosario is big and fast, and he can burn defenses with a long gainer any time.

The offensive line welcomes back four starters, and if Micah Kia can regain his effectiveness from 2008.  He missed last year with an ACL injury.  This group doesn’t have a real star, but they will be improved and cut down on the 29 sacks they allowed.

UCLA should improve their scoring average from 22 to about 24-26 points per game.  We expect them to top 350 yards per game as well.

Defense: The Bruins finished second in the league against the pass and fifth overall, but seven starters were lost to graduation.  There is rebuilding to do on this side of the ball.

After an a broken right foot ended end Datone Jones’ season, the Bruins were left with having to replace their entire defensive line.  Jones had four sacks and seven other tackles behind the line, and there isn’t a player on the roster capable of replacing him, much less all-conference end Brian Price.  Price was the league’s Defensive Player of the Year and runaway leader in tackles for loss in the Pac-10.

Only one starting linebacker returns as well.  Akeem Ayers is a borderline all-conference performer.  He defends well against the run and the pass, and he is a fantastic blitzer.

Three starters return to the back line, where the Bruins were tough against the pass last year.  They were greatly helped by a pass rush that recorded 44 sacks.  The one lost starter was a 4^th Round NFL draft choice, but UCLA returns a certain 1^st Round pick.  Rahim Moore is a difference maker at free safety; he is better than Taylor Mays who went in the 2^nd round of this year’s draft.  Moore led the nation with 10 interceptions and batted away seven other passes.

We expect UCLA to be more generous on this side of the ball and give up 26-30 points and 340-370 total yards per game.

The Bruins have one of the best kicking combos.  Punter Jeff Locke and placekicker Kai Forbath will both play in the NFL.  Forbath is the best kicker in college football, and he may be better than 90% of the NFL kickers.

Schedule: The Bruins have a difficult non-league schedule.  They must face Kansas State and Texas on the road and Houston at home.  They will be lucky to go 1-2.

UCLA gets five home conference games and could win three or four of them.  Road games with Cal, Oregon, and Washington won’t be fun.  It looks like a sub-.500 year in Westwood.

Team	Washington Huskies
Head Coach	Steve Sarkisian
Colors	Purple and Gold
City	Seattle, WA
2009 Record
Conference	4-5
Overall	5-7
PiRate Rating	115.6
National Rating	22
2010 Prediction
Conference	4-5
Overall	6-6

 

Offense: It has been eight seasons since the Huskies last posted a winning record and went to a bowl.  That 2002 team rode the arm of Cody Pickett tossing to Reggie Williams and won seven games.  With the talent returning in Seattle this year, seven wins would be a disappointment.  UW returns nine offensive starters, including the possible first pick in next year’s NFL Draft, so second year coach Steve Sarkisian could reverse that bowl drought this year.

Jake Locker is a lot like John Elway.  Aside from the accurate rifle arm and great wheels, he could choose to play baseball if a lousy NFL team chose him in the draft.  Let’s hope the comparison ends there.  Elway never played on a winning team nor played in a bowl game at Stanford.  Locker has one more shot to avoid the same fate.  He should top 3,000 yards per game through the air this season and possibly pass for 25 or more touchdowns.  And, maybe some Seattle DJ will right a ballad about him like they did for Sonny Sixkiller.

Just about every wideout that caught a pass last year returns, and that makes UW a very scary team.  This group of receivers ranks in the top five in the nation.  In Jermaine Kearse, Locker has a target to bring out the mad bomber in him.  Kearse averaged 17.3 yards on his team-leading 50 catches.  James Johnson and Devin Aguilar teamed up to make 81 receptions.  Tight end Kavario Middleton will be sorely missed after being dismissed for violating team rules.

The task of helping keep defenses honest falls on running back Chris Polk.  Polk rushed for 1,113 yards last year.  Locker rushed for over 500 yards when you factor out sacks and crossed the goalline seven times.

The offensive line is a bit small, but they are quick and rely on zone blocking to open running lanes.  Four 2009 starters return including Ryan Tolar and Cody Habben.  Tolar can play guard or center and will start at center this season.

The Huskies should average around 30-35 points and 400 total yards this season.

Defense: Eight starters return to a defense that improved by eight points and 62 yards per game last year.  Two of those three graduated defenders were last year’s starting ends.  Tackle Alameda Ta’Amu would be the perfect nose tackle in a 3-4 defense.  He will line up next to Cameron Elisara.  Not many teams will run the ball up the middle.

UW returns two quality linebackers in Cort Dennison and Mason Foster.  Both will have to increase their tackles by a couple dozen if the Huskies are to make a run at the Pac-10 title.  Alvin Logan was scheduled to be the third linebacker, but chronic injuries have forced him to give up football.

The secondary returns all four starters and almost the entire second string as well.  Though not among the best in the league, they can rotate and stay fresh.

Washington will once again struggle at times on this side of the ball, but there should be enough improvement to shave a little off last season’s numbers.  Look for 23-26 points and 375-400 yards allowed.

Schedule: The Huskies don’t have any pushover non-conference games this year.  They open at BYU and then host an improving Syracuse and Big 12 North favorite Nebraska.  A 2-1 mark would be an accomplishment.  UW must go on the road to USC (where the Trojans will be out for revenge), Arizona, Oregon, and Cal.  They could lose all four of those games.  Home games with Oregon State, Stanford, and UCLA will be tough as well, and we think they will lose one of them.  Call it a 4-5 league mark, and if they start 2-1, they will return to a bowl game. 

Team	Washington State Cougars
Head Coach	Paul Wulff
Colors	Crimson and Gray
City	Pullman, WA
2009 Record
Conference	0-9
Overall	1-11
PiRate Rating	92.9
National Rating	79
2010 Prediction
Conference	0-9
Overall	1-11

 

Offense: Where have you gone Jason Gesser?  Washington State has been one of the weakest teams in FBS football the last two seasons, finishing with back-to-back 11-loss seasons.  The Cougars have averaged less than two touchdowns per game these last two years.  Their total yardage from the last two years combines was more than 70 fewer yards than Houston gained last year.

WSU will field an improved offense this season, but they are so far behind the rest of the league, they are still guaranteed to finish 10^th in scoring and total offense.  Coach Paul Wulff had to take the redshirt off quarterback Jeff Tuel after four games last year, and then Tuel went down for the year five games later.  In those five contests, he completed 59% of his passes for 789 yards and six touchdowns.  Backup Marshall Lobbesteal has never recovered 100% from a knee injury he suffered in 2008.

The Cougars return their three top receivers and four of their top five, led by Jared Karstetter, who grabbed 38 passes for 540 yards and six TDs last year.

WSU has had no semblance of a running game the last two seasons.  Last year’s mark fell to 71 yards per game.  Of course a lot of that can be attributed to the offensive line allowing an astronomical 53 sacks.  But, then again, defenses did not have to worry about the run and could sell out to the pass.  James Montgomery has survived multiple injuries in and around his knees and almost had to give up football.  The former Cal transfer says he is healthy enough to play.  When 100%, he was a game-changing back.  Chantz Staden is another former starter trying to come back after missing all of 2009.

The offensive returns four starters, but it is still the weakest in the conference by far.  Expect this unit to give up a lot of sacks again this year, but they should improve on the horrible showing of last year.

There is nowhere to go but up for this offense.  WSU will top 14 points per game this year.  Call if 16-18 points and 275-300 total yards.

Defense: The defense gave up 38.5 points per game last year, and that represented a five point improvement over 2008!  The Cougars actually gave up 69 more yards per game than the year before.  With a much improved defensive line, State will improve by a couple more points. End Travis Long led WSU with six stops for loss. 

Linebacker Alex Hoffman-Ellis led the Cougars with 84 tackles, but he recorded just 4 ½ for losses.  He’ll have two new starters joining him in the second line of defense, and this remains a weak unit.

The secondary returns half of its 2009 starters, and this remains the weakest pass defense in the league by far.  WSU gave up 276 passing yards per game, and enemy passers completed 66.8% of their passes against them.

Look for an improved line to allow WSU to improve their numbers.  Expect 33-36 points and 450-475 total yards allowed per game.

Schedule: Washington State goes on the road for two of its non-conference games, and they will lose both games.  They open at Oklahoma State and play at SMU two weeks later.  A home game with Montana State is sandwiched in between, and it is a must-win game.  MSU is not a weak FCS team. 

We don’t see the Cougars breaking the losing steak in Pac-10 play.  They beat a winless Washington team in 2008, and that is their only conference victory in the last two years.  We believe it will be their only conference victory in three years.

*–The PiRate Ratings cannot be used to look forward past the next week of the college football season.  These ratings are good for just the current week, because the computer program uses more than game scores to determine the ratings.  Based on depth and personnel, some teams have regression factored into their rating due to predicted depth issues.  Other teams may have an advancement programmed into their rating due to certain personnel issues (star players recovering from injury, new system to learn, etc.)

Coming Tomorrow: The Big 12 almost ceased to exist this summer after losing Colorado to the Pac-12 and Nebraska to the Big Ten.  Can the Cornhuskers conclude their tenure in the league with a title?