PiRate Ratings Bracketology

Date	1/10/2022
Seed	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team	Team
1	Baylor	Houston	LSU	Arizona
2	Gonzaga	Auburn	Kansas	Purdue
3	Villanova	Illinois	Duke	USC
4	Tennessee	Kentucky	Texas	Michigan St.
5	UCLA	Xavier	Connecticut	Texas Tech
6	Alabama	Ohio St.	Wisconsin	Seton Hall
7	Loyola (Chi.)	Iowa	BYU	Indiana
8	Iowa St.	North Carolina	Oklahoma	Virginia Tech
9	West Virginia	San Diego St.	San Francisco	Providence
10	Saint Mary’s	Mississippi St.	Washington St.	Marquette
11	Colorado St.	Memphis	Florida	Boise St.	Wake Forest	Michigan
12	Belmont	Chattanooga	Davidson	UAB
13	Ohio	Iona	Towson	New Mexico St.
14	Oakland	UC-Irvine	Wagner	Princeton
15	Vermont	South Dakota St.	Liberty	Navy
16	Texas St.	Weber St.	Gardner-Webb	Nicholls St.	Texas Southern	Howard

Last Four Byes: Washington St., Marquette, Colorado St., Memphis

Last Four In: Florida, Boise St., Wake Forest, Michigan

First Four Out: Clemson, Wyoming, VCU, TCU

Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Murray St., Fresno St., Creighton

A New Sun Bowl

With Miami of Florida having to back out of the Sun Bowl and Boise State having to back out of the Arizona Bowl due to multiple positive Covid cases, The Arizona Bowl has been cancelled, and the Sun Bowl has now extended an invitation to Central Michigan to face Washington State. Below are the new PiRate Ratings spreads for that game.

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Washington St.	Central Michigan	7.2	9.3	9.4

PiRate Picks–November 11-13, 2021

We almost made it, but a small miss is as good as a long mile. Last week, with a fourth consecutive winning week looking promising, a couple of fourth quarters went against us, and alas we suffered a tiny loss of 0.9%, or less than $5 on $500 invested in imaginary currency.

For the year, our net profit is now 4.88%, so we are still in the black, just barely. This week, we delayed by a day putting this feature online. The reason is that we did not like the overall numbers and wanted the betting public to help us out by moving the money lines just enough for our program to show the parlays to have an edge by finding the best lines. After looking at 11 different books, we still could only find three wagers to play. Four more were monitored closely and might have eventually moved to make them playable, but we like to publish this before Noon on Thursday, and the movements aren’t moving this morning (Thursday at 9:30 AM EST).

These next two weeks historically have seen monumental upsets in college football when teams that appear to be superior to the opponents they are playing have hidden depth issues. It’s not just players that don’t dress out. By this point in the schedule most college teams have 10-20 players that are playing with minor injuries and are not the same as they were four weeks ago. We look for teams that win consistently through the first week in November but tend to lose power ratings while winning, because instead of producing a statistics box that looks like a 20-point win, they produce a statistics box of 15-17 points, and then 10-14 points. We do not update our ratings by final score. We look at the statistics and make a score adjustment based on the domination or lack thereof and then update. A team that wins by 28 points and is out-gained by 50 yards where the opponent lost fumbles in the Red Zone may actually receive credit for a 14-point “effective win.” A team that wins by 11 points but ends the game at the opponent’s five yard line and chooses to take a knee may receive credit for an 18-point effective win.

You will also notice that since early in the season, we have stopped playing NFL parlays in this feature. The variance in the games is making it impossible for our method to isolate on enough games to make a favorable parlay. We think there are two reasons for this. First, even though there are lousy teams like Detroit, there are no dominant teams that can be counted on to win when they are favored by less than a touchdown. Second, now that many millions more people can legally wager, the odds no longer move by large enough amounts to create favorable odds. There are 60+ college games to find favorable numbers, and the public may not find a Mountain West Conference game worth much, while we do. There are 13-16 NFL games per week, and even Detroit, San Francisco, and Miami get heavy action. We’d like to play three underdogs this week, but the numbers are not favorable according to our program.

Here are our three selections for this week. Remember, we never wager real money on these picks. If we don’t, do you think you should?

Odds:	+185
Must Win	Opponent
East Carolina	Memphis
Odds:	+205.47
Must Win	Opponent
Kansas St.	West Virginia
Air Force	Colorado St.
Oklahoma St.	TCU
Odds:	+152.71
Must Win	Opponent
Louisiana	Troy
Oklahoma	Baylor
Oregon	Washington St.

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 23, 2020

Games Being Played Thursday

Home	Visitor	Spread
UNC Asheville	Radford	-4.4
Ohio St.	Minnesota	7.7
Hofstra	Delaware	6.7
Stetson	NJIT	-0.1
Kennesaw St.	North Alabama	-6.1
William & Mary	James Madison	10.2
Cleveland St.	Green Bay	-3.1
Detroit	IUPUI	7.0
Winthrop	USC Upstate	16.3
Northeastern	Drexel	7.4
Oakland	Illinois Chicago	5.7
Youngstown St	Milwaukee	3.6
Murray St.	Belmont	-1.1
High Point	Gardner-Webb	-6.5
Old Dominion	Florida Intl.	3.0
Central Connecticut	Sacred Heart	-13.4
Merrimack	Fairleigh Dickinson	7.4
Long Island	St. Francis (PA)	0.6
St. Francis (NY)	Robert Morris	-3.2
North Florida	Liberty	-4.9
Charlotte	Florida Atlantic	4.9
Bryant	Wagner	8.7
Hampton	Campbell	-2.3
Elon	Towson	-5.8
Lipscomb	Jacksonville	2.2
Charleston Southern	Presbyterian	5.9
Middle Tennessee	Louisiana Tech	-12.0
North Texas	UTSA	10.1
Rice	UTEP	-2.0
Arkansas St.	South Alabama	0.2
Omaha	Western Illinois	11.6
South Dakota	Purdue Fort Wayne	7.1
Utah	Washington	-3.4
North Dakota	Denver	9.3
UAB	Southern Miss	8.7
Indiana	Michigan St.	-3.4
Austin Peay	Tennessee St.	7.5
Missouri St.	Valparaiso	3.4
SIU-Edwardsville	SEMO	0.8
Tennessee Tech	Morehead St.	-3.2
Eastern Illinois	UT-Martin	8.9
Jacksonville St.	Eastern Kentucky	8.8
Grand Canyon	Seattle	1.6
Idaho St.	Montana	-1.8
Weber St.	Montana St.	0.2
Houston	UConn	9.1
Colorado	Washington St.	12.8
Loyola Marymount	Portland	5.6
Santa Clara	Pepperdine	3.8
Cal St. Bakersfield	Utah Valley	6.2

 

Interesting Analytics

Every year at this time, the PiRates begin looking at some of the advanced analytics that we have used to gauge potential NCAA Tournament success.

Our R+T Rating ™, is our personal creation that attempts to predict how many more opportunities to score a team might have in a game as compared to an average team.  It relies on rebounding margin and turnover margin with an added emphasis on steals and protecting the ball from being stolen by the other team.  It attempts to estimate the potential extra points available to the team due to the “hustle stats.”

In the past, when a team has an R+T of 15.0 or better, that team has the ability to score on enough extra opportunities to go on a big spurt and put another team away.  When UCLA was the dominant basketball team during John Wooden’s runs, their R+T stats were always at the top of the nation.  When they had the 1964 small lineup that went 30-0, the 2-2-1 zone press created turnover after turnover by the opponent with a lot of steals.  These extra opportunities prevented the other team from scoring, but they also led to easy fast break points, and the Bruins had incredible scoring spurts in every game, the most famous being the incredible 16-0 run in just over two minutes before halftime that put NCAA Championship Game with Duke out of reach.

The Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul Jabbar) and Bill Walton years saw the Bruins totally dominating on the glass while still getting a nice number of steals and forcing turnovers.  These UCLA teams frequently had 20 extra scoring opportunities a game, and with Jabbar and Walton both hitting better than 60% from the field, the Bruins were unstoppable.

Long after UCLA won those 10 titles, the ability to get extra scoring opportunities has remained consistently and vitally important in NCAA Tournament games.  To get to the Big Dance, teams must display an ability to play very tough defense, and teams with good offenses and little else become pretenders when every opponent they face will play much better defense than the average opponent in the regular season.  Thus, the ability to create extra scoring opportunities and the ability to prevent extra scoring opportunities take precedence over just being able to shoot the ball more accurately than the opponent.

Obviously, we do not throw the baby out with the bath water.  Shooting is still quite important.  After all, the object of the game is to put the ball in the basket more than the other team.  If a team gets 10 more chances to put the ball in the basket, but they shoot like our Captain trying to putt at Pebble Beach, 30 more chances might not be enough to overcome the inaccurate marksmanship.  Obviously, shooting ability and ability to prevent made shots remain important.

Then, there is the third key factor.  If State only plays Southeast Northwest Community College and similar teams, they will inevitably end up with impressive stats.  If Tech plays Kansas, Duke, Maryland, Oregon, and Kentucky out of conference, it is going to be difficult, make that impossible, to end up with stats as impressive at State.  Thus strength of schedule must play as important a roll as the other two stats.  Think of schedule strength in the same vein as class in thoroughbred horse racing, where a winner of a claiming race is not going to compete well against the fifth place winner from a Grade 1 Classic race, even if in the last two races, their times for 1 1/8 miles were about the same.

Let’s put all three key stats together and look at a sampling of teams that are producing quality numbers across the board.

 

Team	R+T	TS%	SOS
Baylor	19.1	5.8	55.1
Butler	15.2	8.8	57.2
UC-Irvine	20.2	5.6	50.4
Duke	21.5	8.4	55.7
Gonzaga	27.7	10.1	49.0
Houston	25.5	4.2	54.4
Illinois	22.2	6.2	55.4
Indiana	20.6	3.2	54.7
Kansas	18.5	10.9	62.7
Kentucky	16.2	8.3	52.2
Liberty	15.9	12.6	43.4
Louisiana State	16.9	6.6	54.4
Maryland	16.7	5.2	58.4
Michigan State	21.6	10.2	57.7
New Mexico State	18.3	4.3	49.3
Oral Roberts	16.3	2.1	53.6
Rutgers	19.7	6.2	55.7
San Diego State	18.4	9.9	49.6
Southern Utah	15.7	8	48.2
Stephen F. Austin	22.5	2.9	42.7
Utah State	20.8	6.5	52.3
West Virginia	21.7	5.9	58.8

What you see above are the R+T ratings for 22 teams in column 1.  The formula for R+T is:  (R * 2) + (S * .5) + (6 – Opp S) + T, where R is rebounding margin per game, S is steals per game, Opp S is opponents’ steals per game, and T is turnover margin (Opponents Turnovers minus Teams’  Turnovers divided by games played).

Another excellent formula that estimates extra scoring chances per game is the formula by the brilliant Jordan Sperber, creator of Hoop Vision.  Jordan’s formula is: (Team’s OEff)-((100.9/49.0)*(Team’s eFG%)),  where OEff is offensive efficiency, the number 100.9 represents the average Division 1 team’s offensive efficiency, the number 49.0 represents the average Division 1 team’s effective FG%, and eFG% is effective FG%.  The result represents the extra chances to utilize effective FG%, and like everything else Jordan does, it is a great tool.  By the way, Jordan has worked for my number one rated Mid-Major coach of last year (Eric Musselman), and my number one rated Mid-Major coach of this year (Chris Jans).  His analytics have helped both coaches strategize the way they coach.  Check out Jordan’s website at: https://hoopvision.substack.com

In column 2 above, you see TS%.  This stands for true shooting percentage, which in this case actually stands for the difference in the team’s offensive TS% and the defensive TS%.  To calculate TS%, the formula is: (100 * points scored) /  (2 * [FG Attempts + {.475 * FT Attempts}]) 

The final column represents strength of schedule.  50 is considered an average schedule strength.  55 is considered a strong schedule strength.  60 is considered a tough schedule strength.  Below 45 is considered too weak to consider a team a legitimate contender in the Big Dance.

Gonzaga has the top R+T rating in the nation at the present time.  Their TS% difference is in the top 10, so the Bulldogs should be considered a key contender to run the table in the NCAA Tournament this year, correct?  No, that is not correct.  Gonzaga’s strength of schedule (SOS) is too low.  At 49.0, the other two stats must be discounted.  Gonzaga’s remaining schedule will not give the Bulldogs enough increase in SOS to take their R+T and TS% stats seriously.  This does not mean they will lose to a 16-seed in the first game.  What it means is that when they get to the Sweet 16 and face an opponent with a better SOS and strong R+T and TS%, they will be ripe for the upset.

Baylor, Butler, Duke, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan State, Rutgers, and West Virginia have the best resumes today.  They have excellent R+T, TS%, and SOS numbers.  It should be no surprise that the Big 12 and Big Ten are the two best conferences so far this season.  

Kentucky and LSU fall just short of the elites in this test.  Neither team has the important 55 or better SOS mark, although both teams could eventually get over that key number.

Among the mid-major teams to keep an eye on, there are four teams in the West that could be sleepers for the Sweet 16 if they make the dance.  UC-Irvine, New Mexico State, Southern Utah, and Utah State all have strong R+T and TS% numbers with SOS that isn’t totally weak.  Contrast that to Liberty and Stephen F. Austin, two teams where the schedule strength doesn’t cut it.

Then, there are two teams high in the rankings from the lower tier of major conferences.  Houston and San Diego State have excellent numbers, but their schedule strengths make them both on the outside looking in when compared to the power conference teams.  Frequently, teams like these two can make a run to the second weekend of the tournament, and once or twice a decade, they will sneak into the Final Four.  However, when it comes to cut the nets and hear “One Shining Moment,” the happy team is one that comes from one of the top 5 power conferences.

As of today, the top 5 power conferences are: The Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Atlantic Coast, and Southeastern Conferences.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 12

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 13
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ball St.	Western Michigan	-6.3	-6.0	-7.9

 

Wednesday	November 14
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio U	Buffalo	2.1	1.2	1.5
Northern Illinois	Miami (O)	7.1	6.5	5.4

 

Thursday	November 15
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kent St.	Toledo	-16.5	-16.7	-16.3
Houston	Tulane	7.4	7.4	7.7
North Texas	Florida Atlantic	2.4	3.4	2.2

 

Friday	November 16
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
SMU	Memphis	-4.4	-6.0	-5.8
New Mexico	Boise St.	-23.1	-21.5	-23.7

 

Saturday	November 17
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Michigan	Indiana	32.8	32.7	33.6
Wake Forest	Pittsburgh	-2.5	-3.8	-4.1
Illinois	Iowa	-21.0	-19.7	-21.9
Purdue	Wisconsin	0.9	1.9	1.6
Georgia Tech	Virginia	11.6	10.6	12.2
Minnesota	Northwestern	-8.4	-8.0	-9.0
Clemson	Duke	30.1	29.6	31.6
Rutgers	Penn St.	-28.1	-26.4	-29.3
Kansas St.	Texas Tech	-4.8	-4.7	-4.7
East Carolina	Connecticut	12.7	12.1	13.2
Temple	South Florida	15.3	14.1	16.7
Georgia	Massachusetts	51.8	47.9	52.7
Coastal Carolina	Georgia Southern	-9.6	-8.7	-9.3
Tennessee	Missouri	-13.0	-11.1	-14.3
Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	20.3	17.1	19.2
Maryland	Ohio St.	-16.4	-16.0	-17.4
Louisville	North Carolina St.	-17.1	-16.9	-17.7
Central Florida	Cincinnati	15.6	14.0	15.1
Auburn	Liberty	36.4	35.5	37.3
Charlotte	Florida Int’l.	-8.6	-9.9	-8.5
BYU	New Mexico St.	31.1	29.9	31.9
Wyoming	Air Force	1.2	0.5	0.1
Colorado	Utah	-13.2	-11.5	-13.3
Colorado St.	Utah St.	-26.3	-27.1	-28.0
Notre Dame	Syracuse	16.2	14.9	15.9
Appalachian St.	Georgia St.	24.7	24.7	26.1
Marshall	UTSA	24.9	23.6	25.7
California	Stanford	-5.0	-4.8	-5.2
Oregon	Arizona St.	1.6	2.8	2.5
Washington St.	Arizona	13.2	13.5	12.6
San Jose St.	Nevada	-15.4	-14.7	-17.0
Baylor	TCU	-1.4	-1.5	0.3
Navy	Tulsa	1.1	3.5	0.8
Texas A&M	UAB	18.6	14.6	17.9
Mississippi St.	Arkansas	23.4	23.7	25.2
Oklahoma St.	West Virginia	-5.4	-6.2	-4.9
Southern Miss.	Louisiana Tech	-4.1	-3.0	-4.4
Akron	Bowling Green	9.8	10.2	9.5
LSU	Rice	54.4	50.8	56.2
Vanderbilt	Ole Miss	2.5	3.2	2.6
Florida St.	Boston College	-8.5	-7.6	-9.4
Oklahoma	Kansas	27.7	27.9	29.4
Washington	Oregon St.	38.8	38.8	40.7
Arkansas St.	UL-Monroe	4.8	5.6	5.7
Troy	Texas St.	22.1	20.9	23.6
Louisiana	South Alabama	12.1	12.8	13.4
Virginia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	-3.6	-3.2	-3.5
Western Kentucky	UTEP	8.4	8.3	9.0
Nebraska	Michigan St.	-11.1	-10.1	-11.5
Texas	Iowa St.	2.2	2.2	1.8
UCLA	USC	-7.4	-6.3	-8.6
Fresno St.	San Diego St.	20.1	19.7	20.3
Hawaii	UNLV	1.8	2.5	0.5

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Florida	Idaho	33.0
Alabama	Citadel	58.2
Army	Colgate	21.2
Old Dominion	VMI	20.9
North Carolina	Western Carolina	25.6
South Carolina	Chattanooga	36.0

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0
2	Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7
3	Michigan	130.0	128.8	130.7	129.8
4	Georgia	129.0	126.5	130.2	128.5
5	Notre Dame	125.2	122.7	124.3	124.0
6	Ohio St.	123.2	121.3	123.2	122.6
7	Oklahoma	122.1	120.8	122.2	121.7
8	Washington	121.3	119.2	121.9	120.8
9	Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1
10	L S U	118.7	117.8	119.5	118.7
11	Missouri	118.3	116.9	119.3	118.1
12	West Virginia	118.2	117.3	117.6	117.7
13	Penn St.	118.3	115.7	118.1	117.4
14	Michigan St.	116.6	114.5	116.1	115.8
15	Boston College	116.3	114.1	116.1	115.5
16	Auburn	115.4	114.1	116.7	115.4
17	Utah	115.6	114.0	116.0	115.2
18	Iowa	115.5	113.6	115.1	114.7
19	Iowa State	114.6	113.1	114.4	114.0
20	Georgia Tech	114.3	113.3	114.1	113.9
21	Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9
22	Central Florida	113.7	113.9	113.8	113.8
23	Washington St.	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8
24	Fresno St.	113.6	113.1	114.0	113.6
25	Texas A&M	113.9	112.6	114.2	113.6
26	Texas	113.8	112.3	113.3	113.1
27	Utah St.	111.2	112.7	112.5	112.1
28	Miami	112.8	111.1	111.9	112.0
29	Florida	111.8	110.1	112.3	111.4
30	Syracuse	111.9	110.8	111.4	111.4
31	Duke	112.2	110.2	111.4	111.3
32	Northwestern	111.7	110.1	111.7	111.2
33	Wisconsin	112.1	109.5	111.2	110.9
34	S. Carolina	111.5	110.3	111.0	110.9
35	Kentucky	110.7	109.4	110.6	110.2
36	Boise St.	110.3	109.8	110.4	110.2
37	N. Carolina St.	110.5	109.7	109.9	110.0
38	Arizona St.	110.5	109.2	110.1	109.9
39	Texas Tech	110.5	109.1	109.5	109.7
40	Purdue	110.0	108.4	109.8	109.4
41	Oregon	109.1	108.9	109.7	109.2
42	Oklahoma St.	109.8	108.1	109.7	109.2
43	Pittsburgh	109.1	108.6	108.9	108.9
44	California	108.1	106.0	108.1	107.4
45	U S C	108.0	106.4	107.2	107.2
46	Virginia Tech	106.2	104.9	105.4	105.5
47	Virginia	105.7	105.8	104.9	105.5
48	Temple	104.1	104.3	105.0	104.5
49	T C U	105.4	103.9	103.6	104.3
50	Florida St.	104.8	103.6	103.8	104.0
51	Vanderbilt	103.6	103.6	103.9	103.7
52	Arizona	104.1	102.7	104.4	103.7
53	Army	103.3	104.0	103.5	103.6
54	Ole Miss	103.6	103.0	103.8	103.4
55	Memphis	102.3	103.6	103.1	103.0
56	Wake Forest	104.2	102.3	102.4	102.9
57	Maryland	103.7	102.3	102.8	102.9
58	Tennessee	102.3	102.7	101.9	102.3
59	Kansas St.	102.8	101.4	101.7	102.0
60	Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9
61	Nebraska	102.6	101.4	101.7	101.9
62	Buffalo	100.5	102.5	101.8	101.6
63	Baylor	102.0	100.4	101.8	101.4
64	BYU	100.4	101.0	101.1	100.8
65	Houston	100.2	100.7	100.4	100.4
66	Ohio U	99.5	100.7	100.4	100.2
67	N. Carolina	100.2	99.4	100.0	99.9
68	Indiana	100.2	99.1	100.0	99.8
69	Minnesota	100.4	99.1	99.7	99.7
70	Appalachian St.	98.5	100.4	100.1	99.6
71	Colorado	99.4	99.6	99.7	99.6
72	U A B	98.3	101.0	99.3	99.6
73	Northern Illinois	98.6	99.6	99.0	99.1
74	Arkansas	100.1	97.8	99.2	99.0
75	U C L A	99.1	98.6	97.1	98.2
76	Toledo	97.4	98.7	97.2	97.8
77	N. Texas	96.9	99.2	97.1	97.7
78	Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6
79	Nevada	96.6	96.8	97.0	96.8
80	Air Force	96.3	97.1	97.0	96.8
81	San Diego St.	96.5	96.5	96.8	96.6
82	Kansas	97.4	95.9	95.8	96.4
83	Tulane	95.8	96.3	95.7	95.9
84	Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.7	95.7	95.9
85	Miami (O)	94.4	96.2	96.6	95.7
86	Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5
87	Wyoming	95.0	95.1	94.6	94.9
88	SMU	95.0	94.6	94.3	94.6
89	Middle Tennessee	93.4	95.3	94.4	94.4
90	Troy	92.6	94.0	94.3	93.6
91	Louisiana Tech	91.8	93.8	92.5	92.7
92	South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6
93	Illinois	92.0	91.4	90.7	91.4
94	Florida Int’l.	89.7	93.4	90.4	91.2
95	Arkansas St.	89.4	90.9	90.9	90.4
96	Louisville	90.9	90.3	89.7	90.3
97	Tulsa	90.0	89.6	90.0	89.9
98	Western Michigan	88.7	90.3	89.7	89.6
99	Georgia Southern	88.8	90.4	89.2	89.5
100	Navy	88.1	90.0	87.8	88.7
101	Akron	87.9	88.9	87.6	88.2
102	UL-Monroe	87.0	87.7	87.8	87.5
103	Rutgers	87.7	86.7	86.3	86.9
104	Southern Miss.	85.6	88.7	86.0	86.8
105	New Mexico	84.7	85.8	84.2	84.9
106	Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4
107	Louisiana	82.8	85.1	84.3	84.1
108	East Carolina	83.8	83.7	83.5	83.7
109	Old Dominion	82.2	85.4	82.1	83.3
110	U N L V	81.9	82.8	82.1	82.3
111	Colorado St.	82.0	82.6	81.5	82.0
112	Liberty	82.0	81.5	82.4	82.0
113	Central Michigan	80.3	82.4	80.5	81.1
114	Massachusetts	80.2	81.6	80.5	80.8
115	Hawaii	80.2	81.8	79.1	80.4
116	Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.3	80.4
117	Bowling Green	80.1	80.7	80.1	80.3
118	W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2
119	Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2
120	Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3
121	San Jose St.	78.7	79.6	77.5	78.6
122	Coastal Carolina	77.2	79.7	77.9	78.3
123	Georgia St.	76.3	78.1	76.4	76.9
124	U T E P	73.1	76.2	73.1	74.1
125	Connecticut	74.1	74.6	73.3	74.0
126	Texas State	73.0	75.6	73.2	73.9
127	South Alabama	73.2	74.8	73.3	73.8
128	U T S A	72.4	76.2	72.6	73.8
129	N. Mexico St.	72.3	74.1	72.2	72.9
130	Rice	67.3	70.0	66.3	67.9

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	113.7	113.9	113.8	113.8	6-0	9-0
Temple	104.1	104.3	105.0	104.5	5-1	6-4
Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9	5-1	9-1
South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6	3-3	7-3
East Carolina	83.8	83.7	83.5	83.7	0-6	2-7
Connecticut	74.1	74.6	73.3	74.0	0-6	1-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	102.3	103.6	103.1	103.0	3-3	6-4
Houston	100.2	100.7	100.4	100.4	4-2	7-3
Tulane	95.8	96.3	95.7	95.9	4-2	5-5
SMU	95.0	94.6	94.3	94.6	4-2	5-5
Tulsa	90.0	89.6	90.0	89.9	1-5	2-8
Navy	88.1	90.0	87.8	88.7	1-5	2-8
AAC Averages	95.0	95.6	95.0	95.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7	7-0	10-0
Boston College	116.3	114.1	116.1	115.5	4-2	7-3
Syracuse	111.9	110.8	111.4	111.4	5-2	8-2
N. Carolina St.	110.5	109.7	109.9	110.0	3-3	6-3
Florida St.	104.8	103.6	103.8	104.0	2-5	4-6
Wake Forest	104.2	102.3	102.4	102.9	2-4	5-5
Louisville	90.9	90.3	89.7	90.3	0-7	2-8
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Georgia Tech	114.3	113.3	114.1	113.9	4-3	6-4
Miami	112.8	111.1	111.9	112.0	2-4	5-5
Duke	112.2	110.2	111.4	111.3	3-3	7-3
Pittsburgh	109.1	108.6	108.9	108.9	5-1	6-4
Virginia Tech	106.2	104.9	105.4	105.5	3-3	4-5
Virginia	105.7	105.8	104.9	105.5	4-2	7-3
N. Carolina	100.2	99.4	100.0	99.9	1-6	1-8
ACC Averages	109.9	108.7	109.3	109.3
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	122.1	120.8	122.2	121.7	6-1	9-1
West Virginia	118.2	117.3	117.6	117.7	6-1	8-1
Iowa State	114.6	113.1	114.4	114.0	5-2	6-3
Texas	113.8	112.3	113.3	113.1	5-2	7-3
Texas Tech	110.5	109.1	109.5	109.7	3-4	5-5
Oklahoma St.	109.8	108.1	109.7	109.2	2-5	5-5
T C U	105.4	103.9	103.6	104.3	2-5	4-6
Kansas St.	102.8	101.4	101.7	102.0	2-5	4-6
Baylor	102.0	100.4	101.8	101.4	3-4	5-5
Kansas	97.4	95.9	95.8	96.4	1-6	3-7
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	130.0	128.8	130.7	129.8	7-0	9-1
Ohio St.	123.2	121.3	123.2	122.6	6-1	9-1
Penn St.	118.3	115.7	118.1	117.4	4-3	7-3
Michigan St.	116.6	114.5	116.1	115.8	5-3	6-4
Maryland	103.7	102.3	102.8	102.9	3-4	5-5
Indiana	100.2	99.1	100.0	99.8	2-5	5-5
Rutgers	87.7	86.7	86.3	86.9	0-7	1-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	115.5	113.6	115.1	114.7	3-4	6-4
Northwestern	111.7	110.1	111.7	111.2	6-1	6-4
Wisconsin	112.1	109.5	111.2	110.9	4-3	6-4
Purdue	110.0	108.4	109.8	109.4	4-3	5-5
Nebraska	102.6	101.4	101.7	101.9	2-5	3-7
Minnesota	100.4	99.1	99.7	99.7	2-5	5-5
Illinois	92.0	91.4	90.7	91.4	2-5	4-6
Big Ten Averages	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6	3-3	5-5
Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5	4-2	6-3
Middle Tennessee	93.4	95.3	94.4	94.4	6-1	7-3
Florida Int’l.	89.7	93.4	90.4	91.2	5-1	7-3
Old Dominion	82.2	85.4	82.1	83.3	2-5	3-7
Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2	3-3	4-6
W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2	0-6	1-9
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	98.3	101.0	99.3	99.6	7-0	9-1
N. Texas	96.9	99.2	97.1	97.7	3-3	7-3
Louisiana Tech	91.8	93.8	92.5	92.7	5-1	7-3
Southern Miss.	85.6	88.7	86.0	86.8	2-4	3-6
U T E P	73.1	76.2	73.1	74.1	1-5	1-9
U T S A	72.4	76.2	72.6	73.8	2-4	3-7
Rice	67.3	70.0	66.3	67.9	0-7	1-10
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	125.2	122.7	124.3	124.0	x	10-0
Army	103.3	104.0	103.5	103.6	x	8-2
BYU	100.4	101.0	101.1	100.8	x	5-5
Liberty	82.0	81.5	82.4	82.0	x	4-5
Massachusetts	80.2	81.6	80.5	80.8	x	4-7
N. Mexico St.	72.3	74.1	72.2	72.9	x	3-7
Indep. Averages	93.9	94.1	94.0	94.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Buffalo	100.5	102.5	101.8	101.6	6-0	9-1
Ohio U	99.5	100.7	100.4	100.2	4-2	6-4
Miami (O)	94.4	96.2	96.6	95.7	4-2	4-6
Akron	87.9	88.9	87.6	88.2	2-4	4-5
Bowling Green	80.1	80.7	80.1	80.3	1-5	2-8
Kent St.	78.9	80.0	78.9	79.3	1-5	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Northern Illinois	98.6	99.6	99.0	99.1	6-0	7-3
Toledo	97.4	98.7	97.2	97.8	3-3	5-5
Eastern Michigan	95.2	96.7	95.7	95.9	4-3	6-5
Western Michigan	88.7	90.3	89.7	89.6	4-2	6-4
Central Michigan	80.3	82.4	80.5	81.1	0-7	1-10
Ball St.	79.9	81.9	79.3	80.4	2-4	3-7
MAC Averages	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	111.2	112.7	112.5	112.1	6-0	9-1
Boise St.	110.3	109.8	110.4	110.2	5-1	8-2
Air Force	96.3	97.1	97.0	96.8	2-4	4-6
Wyoming	95.0	95.1	94.6	94.9	2-4	4-6
New Mexico	84.7	85.8	84.2	84.9	1-5	3-7
Colorado St.	82.0	82.6	81.5	82.0	2-4	3-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	113.6	113.1	114.0	113.6	5-1	8-2
Nevada	96.6	96.8	97.0	96.8	4-2	6-4
San Diego St.	96.5	96.5	96.8	96.6	4-2	7-3
U N L V	81.9	82.8	82.1	82.3	1-5	3-7
Hawaii	80.2	81.8	79.1	80.4	3-3	6-5
San Jose St.	78.7	79.6	77.5	78.6	1-5	1-9
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	121.3	119.2	121.9	120.8	5-2	7-3
Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9	4-3	6-4
Washington St.	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8	6-1	9-1
Oregon	109.1	108.9	109.7	109.2	3-4	6-4
California	108.1	106.0	108.1	107.4	3-4	6-4
Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4	1-6	2-8
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	115.6	114.0	116.0	115.2	5-3	7-3
Arizona St.	110.5	109.2	110.1	109.9	4-3	6-4
U S C	108.0	106.4	107.2	107.2	4-4	5-5
Arizona	104.1	102.7	104.4	103.7	4-3	5-5
Colorado	99.4	99.6	99.7	99.6	2-5	5-5
U C L A	99.1	98.6	97.1	98.2	2-5	2-8
Pac-12 Averages	107.5	106.1	107.3	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	129.0	126.5	130.2	128.5	7-1	9-1
Missouri	118.3	116.9	119.3	118.1	2-4	6-4
Florida	111.8	110.1	112.3	111.4	5-3	7-3
S. Carolina	111.5	110.3	111.0	110.9	4-4	5-4
Kentucky	110.7	109.4	110.6	110.2	5-3	7-3
Vanderbilt	103.6	103.6	103.9	103.7	1-5	4-6
Tennessee	102.3	102.7	101.9	102.3	2-4	5-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0	7-0	10-0
Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1	2-4	6-4
L S U	118.7	117.8	119.5	118.7	5-2	8-2
Auburn	115.4	114.1	116.7	115.4	3-4	6-4
Texas A&M	113.9	112.6	114.2	113.6	4-3	6-4
Ole Miss	103.6	103.0	103.8	103.4	1-5	5-5
Arkansas	100.1	97.8	99.2	99.0	0-6	2-8
SEC Averages	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	98.5	100.4	100.1	99.6	5-1	7-2
Troy	92.6	94.0	94.3	93.6	6-0	8-2
Georgia Southern	88.8	90.4	89.2	89.5	4-2	7-3
Coastal Carolina	77.2	79.7	77.9	78.3	2-4	5-5
Georgia St.	76.3	78.1	76.4	76.9	1-5	2-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	89.4	90.9	90.9	90.4	3-3	6-4
UL-Monroe	87.0	87.7	87.8	87.5	4-2	6-4
Louisiana	82.8	85.1	84.3	84.1	3-3	5-5
Texas State	73.0	75.6	73.2	73.9	1-5	3-7
South Alabama	73.2	74.8	73.3	73.8	1-5	2-8
Sun Belt Averages	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

PiRate Ratings of the Conferences

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
2	ACC	109.9	108.7	109.3	109.3
3	B12	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
4	BTEN	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
5	PAC12	107.5	106.1	107.3	106.9
6	AAC	95.0	95.6	95.0	95.2
7	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
8	IND	93.9	94.1	94.0	94.0
9	MAC	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.9	85.7	84.7	84.8

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1. Central Florida
2. Utah State
3. Cincinnati
4. UAB
5. Army

 

Bowl and Playoff Projections

With two weeks remaining in the regular season plus a weekend of conference championship games, most of the conference races are getting quite interesting. The good news for the bowls this year is that there is now about a one in one hundred thousand chance that a team with a losing record will be needed. Actually, chances are maybe 98% that there will be bowl eligible teams that do not receive bowl bids, even some teams with seven and eight wins.

As we project the bowl and playoff bids today, we believe six bowl eligible teams will be left out of the bowl picture. There are already 64 bowl eligible teams with close to 20 more needing just one more win. Let’s take a look at each conference and show you where they stand today and where we think they will finish.

Group of 5 Conferences

American Athletic
Both division races have interesting key games this weekend. In the East, Central Florida hosts Cincinnati. If the Golden Knights win to remain undefeated, they will clinch the East Division title. However, if one-loss Cincinnati pulls off the win, and Temple beats South Florida, then there will be a three-way tie for first with one game to go. All three have very winnable final games, so at 7-1, there would be a tiebreaker involved, and Cincinnati would get the nod several layers down in the tie-breaking procedure.

Houston looked like a cinch to win the West Division until back-to-back losses to SMU and Temple knocked the Cougars into a three-way tie with SMU and surprising Tulane. Tulane and Houston square off in Houston this weekend, while SMU plays tough Memphis. This race will come down to the last weekend, and SMU has the advantage as of today.

Already Bowl Eligible: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Temple, South Florida, Houston, and Memphis

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Tulane and SMU

 

Conference USA
This league will fall shy of the number of bowl eligible teams compared to last year, but there will still be seven conference teams available for the seven bowl tie-ins the league has this year.

The East Division is down to a three-team race between Florida International, Middle Tennessee, and Marshall. Middle currently leads FIU by a half-game in the standings, but the Blue Raiders close with a home game against the top team in the league in UAB. FIU beat Middle and holds the tie-breaker edge, but the Panthers must still beat Marshall.

There is a chance that the three contenders will all finish 6-2, if UAB beats Middle, and Marshall beats FIU. Should that happen, Middle Tennessee would win the tie-breaker well down the procedure list.

UAB has already clinched the West Division championship, but the Blazers have something more to play for. It is a long shot, but if UAB could pull off the big upset at Texas A&M,then win at Middle Tennessee, and then win the CUSA Championship Game, the Blazers could be in the mix for a Peach Bowl bid should Central Florida lose to somebody other than Cincinnati and both Utah State and Boise State lose another game. The Blazers would be 12-1 in this situation.

Already Bowl Eligible: Florida International, Middle Tennessee, Marshall, UAB, North Texas, and Louisiana Tech

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Florida Atlantic
Independents
We don’t count Notre Dame in this section, because the Irish are classified with the Power Five conferences. Army is already bowl eligible and will definitely get an at-large bid to a bowl. BYU needs one more win, and the Cougars face a weak New Mexico State team this week, so they should get that win. They are also guaranteed an at-large bid to a bowl that ESPN sponsors.

Liberty will most likely finish 6-6, but the Flames are ineligible in their transition year in FBS. There is a loophole for Liberty to become bowl eligible if there are not enough bowl eligible teams, but as we said before, there will be most likely six bowl eligible teams more than needed this year.

Already Bowl Eligible: Army

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: BYU (& Liberty in reserve)

 

Mid-American
The two MAC races are basically sewn up with two weeks to go. Buffalo has a two-game lead over Ohio U in the East, and even if the Bulls lose at Ohio this week, they would also have to lose against lowly Bowling Green next week, while Ohio then beats Akron. We don’t see Buffalo finishing 0-2, and the Bulls have a better chance to finish 2-0 and stay alive in the New Year’s 6 Bowl race.

Northern Illinois is in the same boat as Buffalo in the West Division race. The Huskies lead Western Michigan by two games, and even though NIU and WMU face off in the regular season finale, the only way that game will determine the division title is if NIU loses at home to Miami of Ohio this week and WMU wins at Ball St. Miami is trying to sneak into bowl eligibility and needs wins over NIU and Ball State, but we don’t see the Red Hawks competing with the Huskies this week.

Already Bowl Eligible: Buffalo, Ohio U, Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, and Western Michigan
Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Toledo

 

Mountain West
Both races are still undecided with two week to go. Boise State’s big win over Fresno State gave the Broncos a big boost, for if they win out against New Mexico in Albuquerque and Utah State on the Blue Field, then Boise takes the Mountain Division crown.
Utah State plays at Colorado State in a game that mean nothing toward the Mountain Division race, but it means everything if the Aggies want to sneak into the Fiesta Bowl as the Group of 5 representative. If USU beats CSU and then knocks off Boise in Boise, the Aggies would enter the MWC Championship Game needing a win and a UCF loss to earn the Fiesta Bowl bid.

In the West Division, Fresno State is still in control of the race, but the Bulldogs have been exposed with questionable offensive and defensive lines. San Diego State and Nevada are just one game back with two to go, and SDSU and Fresno play this weekend in Fresno. Should the Aztecs recover from a late swoon and pull off the upset, then there could be a three-way tie for first at 6-2. Fresno State would win the tie-breaker.

Already Bowl Eligible: Utah State, Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada, and San Diego State

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Hawaii and Wyoming

 

Sun Belt
Technically, three teams are still alive in the East Division, as Troy is 6-0, Appalachian State is 5-1, and Georgia Southern is 4-2. However, Troy hosts a very weak Texas State team this week, and a Trojan win eliminates GSU. The regular season finale sends Troy to Appy State, and the winner of that game will win the division title.

The West Division race is also a three-team affair, but the three teams all have legitimate chances of capturing the flag. UL-Monroe leads Louisiana and Arkansas State by a game, but they conclude the regular season playing both contenders–Arkanasas State in Jonesboro and Louisiana in Monroe. Obviously, If ULM wins both games, they win the division title. If they lose one of the two games, then the team that beats them will win the division title if they also win their other game. Louisiana’s other game is a home game with South Alabama, while Arky State plays at Texas State. If both Arky State and Louisiana beat ULM, then Louisiana wins the division.

Already Bowl Eligible: Troy, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Monroe, and Arkansas St.

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Coastal Carolina and Louisiana

 

Power 5 Conferences

Atlantic Coast
Can anybody in this league beat Clemson that still might play the Tigers this year? Duke and South Carolina are not likely candidates, so it figures that CU will enter the ACC Championship Game at 12-0. Who the Tigers will play is still a question with two weeks to go.

After losing to a North Carolina team that has not won another game this year, Pittsburgh did not look like a bowl eligible team at all. The Panthers were 2-3 with two lopsided losses (Penn State and Central Florida). A 3-9 record looked possible at that point, because the back end of the schedule looked brutal. After an upset of Syracuse and a near miss loss at Notre Dame, Pitt was still 3-4 and not looking like they would find three more wins on their schedule. Consecutive wins over Duke, Virginia, and Virginia Tech, have placed the Panthers into first place in the Coastal Division with two games to go. Both games are on the road but winnable against mediocre teams. The problem for the Panthers is that both Wake Forest and Miami are fighting for bowl eligibility, and it would not surprise us if one of the two knock the Panthers off their perch. Pittsburgh will still win the division if they split their final two games, but should the unthinkable happen, and they lose both games, then it throws this division race into a mad world.
Virginia would have a chance to win the division, but the Cavaliers play their final two games on the road against a fast-closing Georgia Tech, and a Virginia Tech team that might be 5-5 and needing a win to earn a bowl bid. Duke, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech all have three conference losses, but the chances that any of the three can win the division are quite remote. And, in the end, who really wants to get drubbed by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game?

Already Bowl Eligible: Clemson, Syracuse, Boston College, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Duke, and Georgia Tech

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Miami

 

Big 12
This is another interesting race with four teams contending for the two Championship Game bids. Oklahoma (6-1) and West Virginia (6-1) control their own destiny, but since they still must play each other, at least one of these two teams might no longer control their destiny.

Iowa State (5-2) would sneak into the Big 12 Championship Game, should they beat Texas and Kansas State and Oklahoma beats West Virginia. Texas (5-2) would be the second team if the Longhorns beat Iowa State and Kansas and West Virginia beats Oklahoma.
Should West Virginia lose at Oklahoma State this week and then beat Oklahoma, then there could be a three-way tie at 7-2, with one of the teams eliminated. Should WVU, Oklahoma, and Texas finish tied in this scenario, Texas and Oklahoma would play for the Big 12 Championship. Should WVU, Oklahoma, and Iowa State finish tied in this scenario, then Iowa State and West Virginia would play for the title.

Already Bowl Eligible: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, and Iowa State

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and  Baylor

 

Big Ten
The East race is down to the same two teams that have always competed for the Big Ten title. Michigan faces Ohio State in Columbus in two weeks, and the winner will face Northwestern for the Big Ten Championship.
Obviously, the Wolverines are playing for a lot more than just the league title. Wins over Indiana, Ohio State, and Northwestern will clinch a spot in the Playoffs. Ohio State has a minimal chance of making the playoffs by closing out with wins over Maryland, Michigan, and Northwestern. Northwestern can win the Rose Bowl bid by upsetting either team in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Already Bowl Eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Iowa

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Indiana, Purdue, and Minnesota

Pac-12
The North Division race will be determined in the Palouse when the Washington Huskies visit Washington State for the Apple Cup. Stanford has been eliminated by virtue of losing to both Olympic State teams.
The South Division is still quite chaotic. Arizona State, Arizona, and Utah have three conference losses, while USC has four. Arizona State is the current tiebreaker leader by virtue of a win over Utah, while Utah drubbed Arizona and holds second place today. However, Arizona has not played Arizona State, and should the Wildcats beat the Sun Devils, and there is a multiple way tie at 5-4 with three or four teams, the possibilities are not endless, but they seem to appear that way. USC is not in the race, even if they finish in a first place tie. In the event of a tie at 5-4 between Arizona State, Arizona, USC, and Utah, the Utes win the tiebreaker. In another scenario, if Colorado beats Utah, Oregon beats Arizona State, and then Arizona State beats Arizona, then Arizona State wins the division at 5-4 no matter what USC does.
Already Bowl Eligible: Washington State, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, California, Utah, and Arizona State

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: USC and Arizona

 

Southeastern
This is a race that is already determined. Alabama and Georgia will play in the SEC Championship Game no matter what they do the rest of the season. We expect they will both win out. Georgia finishes with two non-conference opponents. They can name the score with UMass, and they should be able to slow down the Georgia Tech option game and run over the Techsters to finish 11-1. Alabama could score 100 points this week against The Citadel if Nick Saban was Barry Switzer or Bill Yeoman, but we expect a possible 56-0 halftime score to lead to a 77-0 win at most. Then, Alabama should handle Auburn in Tuscaloosa to finish 12-0.
Georgia would have to win the SEC Championship to get into the Playoffs unless a lot of nearly impossible events leave a trail of two loss teams in the wake. If the Bulldogs upset the Tide, then most likely Georgia would move up to number two and Alabama would fall to number three, leaving Michigan in a bind.

Already Bowl Eligible: Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Auburn

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: South Carolina and Tennessee

Here are this week’s playoff and bowl projections.

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	Middle Tennessee
Cure	AAC	SBC	Cincinnati	Troy
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Boise St.	USC
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Buffalo	Appalachian St.
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	UL-Monroe
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	SMU	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Memphis	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Ohio U	Nevada
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	Missouri
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	Houston	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	Indiana	North Texas
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Boston College	Minnesota
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas Tech	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Arizona]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Wisconsin
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma St.	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	North Carolina St.	Tennessee
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Syracuse	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	Fresno St.	Arkansas St.
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Washington
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	West Virginia	LSU
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Duke
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Georgia Tech	California
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Iowa	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Northwestern	Stanford
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Purdue	Auburn
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	Kentucky
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Utah
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Penn St.	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

FBS Playoff Projections

Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 11

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday	November 6
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Buffalo	Kent St.	22.1	23.1	23.3

 

Wednesday	November 7
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (O)	Ohio U	-3.7	-3.3	-2.3
Northern Illinois	Toledo	0.2	-0.1	0.5

 

Thursday	November 8
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Carolina St.	Wake Forest	11.7	13.2	13.5

 

Friday	November 9
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Syracuse	Louisville	22.9	22.1	23.2
Boise St.	Fresno St.	-2.0	-2.3	-2.9

 

Saturday	November 10
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Houston	Temple	1.8	2.5	1.5
Rutgers	Michigan	-40.1	-39.9	-42.5
Pittsburgh	Virginia Tech	-1.4	-0.6	-0.8
Boston College	Clemson	-19.6	-19.4	-20.6
Texas A&M	Ole Miss	13.3	12.4	13.2
Tennessee	Kentucky	-13.0	-11.2	-13.3
Massachusetts	BYU	-16.5	-15.3	-16.5
Virginia	Liberty	26.1	26.9	25.1
Georgia Southern	Troy	1.2	1.6	0.3
Iowa St.	Baylor	15.8	16.1	16.0
Central Florida	Navy	30.0	28.3	30.8
West Virginia	TCU	10.6	11.0	11.6
Georgia Tech	Miami (Fla.)	4.3	5.0	5.0
Kansas St.	Kansas	7.3	7.4	8.1
Eastern Michigan	Akron	7.4	7.7	7.8
Indiana	Maryland	-1.4	-1.1	-0.7
Connecticut	SMU	-18.9	-18.4	-19.5
Duke	North Carolina	13.9	12.9	13.7
Oklahoma	Oklahoma St.	16.1	16.7	16.7
Iowa	Northwestern	9.0	9.0	8.9
Cincinnati	South Florida	12.9	13.2	13.9
Coastal Carolina	Arkansas St.	-6.5	-5.4	-7.2
Tulane	East Carolina	15.3	16.1	15.9
Utah	Oregon	9.7	8.1	9.5
Colorado	Washington St.	-9.1	-7.5	-8.2
Marshall	Charlotte	18.1	18.4	18.4
Old Dominion	North Texas	-15.6	-14.6	-16.5
Central Michigan	Bowling Green	8.0	10.0	8.5
Nevada	Colorado St.	12.8	12.2	13.3
Stanford	Oregon St.	32.1	31.9	33.6
UTEP	Middle Tennessee	-17.5	-16.1	-18.8
Georgia	Auburn	15.9	14.6	15.6
Penn St.	Wisconsin	8.8	8.8	9.5
Alabama	Mississippi St.	24.1	24.3	24.7
Air Force	New Mexico	14.2	13.7	14.9
Missouri	Vanderbilt	19.1	17.4	20.0
Nebraska	Illinois	12.8	12.0	12.8
Minnesota	Purdue	-14.2	-13.9	-14.7
Memphis	Tulsa	12.6	14.5	13.2
Florida	South Carolina	3.1	2.4	4.3
USC	California	3.9	4.5	3.1
Texas Tech	Texas	1.2	1.5	1.0
Arkansas	LSU	-16.4	-18.2	-18.7
Utah St.	San Jose St.	35.3	35.7	38.0
Texas St.	Appalachian St.	-21.4	-20.3	-22.5
Louisiana	Georgia St.	9.0	9.2	10.1
Florida Atlantic	Western Kentucky	20.9	19.3	20.9
South Alabama	UL-Monroe	-7.7	-6.4	-8.0
Louisiana Tech	Rice	28.6	27.9	30.9
UTSA	Florida Int’l.	-10.3	-9.9	-10.4
Notre Dame	Florida St.	21.8	20.2	21.6
UAB	Southern Miss.	17.2	16.8	17.8
Michigan St.	Ohio St.	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4
Arizona St.	UCLA	16.3	15.5	18.6
San Diego St.	UNLV	22.7	21.7	23.1

 

FBS	FCS
Home	Visitor	PiRate
Army	Lafayette	47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0
2	Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7
3	Michigan	130.2	129.0	131.0	130.0
4	Georgia	128.9	126.3	130.0	128.4
5	Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9
6	Oklahoma	123.0	121.8	123.3	122.7
7	Ohio St.	121.7	119.7	121.5	121.0
8	Washington	121.0	118.9	121.6	120.5
9	Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1
10	L S U	119.1	118.4	120.2	119.2
11	Missouri	119.0	117.5	120.1	118.8
12	Michigan St.	118.4	116.4	118.1	117.7
13	Penn St.	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2
14	Iowa	116.6	114.8	116.4	115.9
15	Boston College	116.6	114.4	116.4	115.8
16	Auburn	115.5	114.3	116.9	115.6
17	Utah	115.7	114.0	116.1	115.3
18	West Virginia	115.6	114.6	114.9	115.0
19	Central Florida	114.4	114.6	114.7	114.6
20	Fresno St.	114.3	113.9	115.0	114.4
21	Iowa State	114.7	113.3	114.6	114.2
22	Kentucky	114.5	113.2	114.4	114.0
23	Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9
24	Georgia Tech	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8
25	Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	114.1	113.5
26	Purdue	113.8	112.2	113.6	113.2
27	Washington St.	113.0	111.8	112.6	112.5
28	Texas	113.1	111.5	112.4	112.3
29	Miami	112.9	111.2	112.0	112.1
30	Utah St.	111.1	112.5	112.5	112.0
31	N. Carolina St.	112.2	111.6	111.9	111.9
32	Duke	112.4	110.5	111.8	111.6
33	Florida	111.7	109.9	112.3	111.3
34	Wisconsin	112.3	109.7	111.4	111.1
35	S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0
36	Syracuse	111.6	110.4	110.9	111.0
37	Arizona St.	111.3	110.0	111.2	110.8
38	Texas Tech	111.2	109.9	110.4	110.5
39	Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0
40	Oregon	109.0	108.9	109.6	109.2
41	Boise St.	109.3	108.7	109.1	109.0
42	Virginia Tech	109.7	108.4	108.9	109.0
43	Oklahoma St.	108.9	107.1	108.6	108.2
44	U S C	108.5	106.9	107.7	107.7
45	T C U	108.0	106.6	106.3	106.9
46	California	107.6	105.5	107.6	106.9
47	Virginia	105.9	106.1	105.2	105.7
48	Pittsburgh	105.3	104.8	105.1	105.1
49	Florida St.	105.3	104.3	104.5	104.7
50	Army	104.3	105.0	104.5	104.6
51	Maryland	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5
52	Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5
53	Arizona	103.8	102.4	104.1	103.4
54	Vanderbilt	102.9	103.0	103.1	103.0
55	Temple	102.6	102.6	103.3	102.8
56	Kansas St.	103.0	101.6	102.0	102.2
57	Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9
58	Memphis	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9
59	Houston	101.4	102.1	101.8	101.8
60	Nebraska	102.2	100.9	101.1	101.4
61	Baylor	101.9	100.2	101.6	101.2
62	Colorado	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2
63	Wake Forest	102.5	100.4	100.4	101.1
64	BYU	100.3	100.7	100.8	100.6
65	U A B	99.3	102.0	100.3	100.6
66	Ohio U	99.8	101.1	100.7	100.5
67	Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.5	100.4
68	Toledo	99.2	100.6	99.2	99.7
69	N. Carolina	100.0	99.1	99.6	99.6
70	San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5
71	N. Texas	98.6	100.9	99.1	99.5
72	Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5
73	Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7
74	Tennessee	98.5	98.9	98.1	98.5
75	Arkansas	99.7	97.2	98.5	98.5
76	Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6
77	U C L A	98.0	97.5	95.7	97.0
78	Northern Illinois	96.5	97.4	96.7	96.9
79	Air Force	96.1	96.8	96.6	96.5
80	Tulane	96.2	96.8	96.3	96.4
81	Kansas	97.2	95.7	95.5	96.1
82	Minnesota	96.6	95.3	95.9	95.9
83	Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5
84	Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.3	95.4
85	SMU	95.3	95.0	94.8	95.0
86	Eastern Michigan	94.0	95.4	94.3	94.6
87	Wyoming	94.7	94.8	94.3	94.6
88	Middle Tennessee	93.5	95.3	94.6	94.5
89	Nevada	94.2	94.3	94.4	94.3
90	Louisiana Tech	92.6	94.6	93.6	93.6
91	Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1
92	Illinois	92.4	91.9	91.3	91.9
93	South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6
94	Louisville	91.7	91.2	90.7	91.2
95	Tulsa	91.1	90.6	91.2	91.0
96	Georgia Southern	89.9	91.6	90.5	90.7
97	Akron	89.1	90.2	89.0	89.5
98	Western Michigan	88.5	90.1	89.5	89.4
99	Florida Int’l.	87.6	91.2	88.1	89.0
100	Arkansas St.	87.8	89.3	89.2	88.8
101	Navy	87.4	89.3	86.9	87.9
102	Rutgers	87.5	86.5	86.0	86.7
103	Southern Miss.	84.6	87.7	85.0	85.8
104	UL-Monroe	85.2	85.7	85.8	85.6
105	New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2
106	Colorado St.	84.4	85.1	84.1	84.5
107	Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4
108	Central Michigan	83.2	85.5	83.6	84.1
109	Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7
110	East Carolina	83.4	83.2	82.9	83.2
111	Liberty	81.8	81.2	82.1	81.7
112	Old Dominion	80.5	83.7	80.1	81.5
113	Massachusetts	80.3	81.9	80.8	81.0
114	Kent St.	80.1	81.2	80.2	80.5
115	W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2
116	Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2
117	Ball St.	79.7	81.7	79.1	80.2
118	Hawaii	79.9	81.5	78.8	80.1
119	U N L V	79.7	80.6	79.7	80.0
120	Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9
121	San Jose St.	78.8	79.8	77.5	78.7
122	Bowling Green	77.7	78.1	77.5	77.8
123	Georgia St.	76.6	78.5	76.8	77.3
124	U T S A	74.8	78.7	75.2	76.3
125	South Alabama	75.0	76.8	75.3	75.7
126	Texas State	73.8	76.6	74.1	74.8
127	U T E P	73.0	76.2	72.9	74.0
128	Connecticut	73.8	74.2	72.8	73.6
129	N. Mexico St.	72.0	73.8	71.9	72.6
130	Rice	66.5	69.2	65.2	67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Central Florida	114.4	114.6	114.7	114.6	5-0	8-0
Temple	102.6	102.6	103.3	102.8	4-1	5-4
Cincinnati	101.2	102.9	101.7	101.9	4-1	8-1
South Florida	91.3	92.7	90.8	91.6	3-2	7-2
East Carolina	83.4	83.2	82.9	83.2	0-5	2-6
Connecticut	73.8	74.2	72.8	73.6	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	AAC	Overall
Memphis	101.2	102.6	101.9	101.9	2-3	5-4
Houston	101.4	102.1	101.8	101.8	4-1	7-2
Tulane	96.2	96.8	96.3	96.4	3-2	4-5
SMU	95.3	95.0	94.8	95.0	3-2	4-5
Tulsa	91.1	90.6	91.2	91.0	1-4	2-7
Navy	87.4	89.3	86.9	87.9	1-4	2-7
AAC Averages	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Clemson	139.2	136.9	140.1	138.7	6-0	9-0
Boston College	116.6	114.4	116.4	115.8	4-1	7-2
N. Carolina St.	112.2	111.6	111.9	111.9	2-2	6-2
Syracuse	111.6	110.4	110.9	111.0	4-2	7-2
Florida St.	105.3	104.3	104.5	104.7	2-5	4-5
Wake Forest	102.5	100.4	100.4	101.1	1-4	4-5
Louisville	91.7	91.2	90.7	91.2	0-6	2-7
Coastal Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	ACC	Overall
Georgia Tech	114.2	113.2	114.0	113.8	3-3	5-4
Miami	112.9	111.2	112.0	112.1	2-3	5-4
Duke	112.4	110.5	111.8	111.6	2-3	6-3
Virginia Tech	109.7	108.4	108.9	109.0	3-2	4-4
Virginia	105.9	106.1	105.2	105.7	4-2	6-3
Pittsburgh	105.3	104.8	105.1	105.1	4-1	5-4
N. Carolina	100.0	99.1	99.6	99.6	1-5	1-7
ACC Averages	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	B12	Overall
Oklahoma	123.0	121.8	123.3	122.7	5-1	8-1
West Virginia	115.6	114.6	114.9	115.0	5-1	7-1
Iowa State	114.7	113.3	114.6	114.2	4-2	5-3
Texas	113.1	111.5	112.4	112.3	4-2	6-3
Texas Tech	111.2	109.9	110.4	110.5	3-3	5-4
Oklahoma St.	108.9	107.1	108.6	108.2	2-4	5-4
T C U	108.0	106.6	106.3	106.9	2-4	4-5
Kansas St.	103.0	101.6	102.0	102.2	1-5	3-6
Baylor	101.9	100.2	101.6	101.2	3-3	5-4
Kansas	97.2	95.7	95.5	96.1	1-5	3-6
Big 12 Averages	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Michigan	130.2	129.0	131.0	130.0	6-0	8-1
Ohio St.	121.7	119.7	121.5	121.0	5-1	8-1
Michigan St.	118.4	116.4	118.1	117.7	5-2	6-3
Penn St.	118.1	115.5	117.9	117.2	3-3	6-3
Maryland	104.3	102.9	103.4	103.5	3-3	5-4
Indiana	99.9	98.8	99.7	99.5	1-5	4-5
Rutgers	87.5	86.5	86.0	86.7	0-6	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	BTen	Overall
Iowa	116.6	114.8	116.4	115.9	3-3	6-3
Purdue	113.8	112.2	113.6	113.2	4-2	5-4
Wisconsin	112.3	109.7	111.4	111.1	4-2	6-3
Northwestern	110.6	108.9	110.4	110.0	5-1	5-4
Nebraska	102.2	100.9	101.1	101.4	1-5	2-7
Minnesota	96.6	95.3	95.9	95.9	1-5	4-5
Illinois	92.4	91.9	91.3	91.9	2-4	4-5
Big Ten Averages	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
Florida Atlantic	97.0	98.2	97.5	97.6	2-3	4-5
Marshall	94.2	96.8	95.3	95.5	3-2	5-3
Middle Tennessee	93.5	95.3	94.6	94.5	5-1	6-3
Florida Int’l.	87.6	91.2	88.1	89.0	4-1	6-3
Old Dominion	80.5	83.7	80.1	81.5	1-5	2-7
W. Kentucky	79.1	81.9	79.5	80.2	0-5	1-8
Charlotte	79.1	81.5	79.9	80.2	3-2	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	CUSA	Overall
U A B	99.3	102.0	100.3	100.6	6-0	8-1
N. Texas	98.6	100.9	99.1	99.5	3-2	7-2
Louisiana Tech	92.6	94.6	93.6	93.6	4-1	6-3
Southern Miss.	84.6	87.7	85.0	85.8	2-3	3-5
U T S A	74.8	78.7	75.2	76.3	2-3	3-6
U T E P	73.0	76.2	72.9	74.0	1-4	1-8
Rice	66.5	69.2	65.2	67.0	0-6	1-9
CUSA Averages	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
FBS Independents
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	Conf.	Overall
Notre Dame	124.2	121.5	123.1	122.9	x	9-0
Army	104.3	105.0	104.5	104.6	x	7-2
BYU	100.3	100.7	100.8	100.6	x	4-5
Liberty	81.8	81.2	82.1	81.7	x	4-4
Massachusetts	80.3	81.9	80.8	81.0	x	4-6
N. Mexico St.	72.0	73.8	71.9	72.6	x	3-7
Indep. Averages	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Ohio U	99.8	101.1	100.7	100.5	4-1	6-3
Buffalo	99.3	101.3	100.5	100.4	5-0	8-1
Miami (O)	94.1	95.8	96.3	95.4	3-2	3-6
Akron	89.1	90.2	89.0	89.5	2-3	4-4
Kent St.	80.1	81.2	80.2	80.5	1-4	2-7
Bowling Green	77.7	78.1	77.5	77.8	0-5	1-8
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MAC	Overall
Toledo	99.2	100.6	99.2	99.7	3-2	5-4
Northern Illinois	96.5	97.4	96.7	96.9	5-0	6-3
Eastern Michigan	94.0	95.4	94.3	94.6	3-3	5-5
Western Michigan	88.5	90.1	89.5	89.4	4-2	6-4
Central Michigan	83.2	85.5	83.6	84.1	0-6	1-9
Ball St.	79.7	81.7	79.1	80.2	2-4	3-7
MAC Averages	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Utah St.	111.1	112.5	112.5	112.0	5-0	8-1
Boise St.	109.3	108.7	109.1	109.0	4-1	7-2
Air Force	96.1	96.8	96.6	96.5	1-4	3-6
Wyoming	94.7	94.8	94.3	94.6	2-4	4-6
New Mexico	84.9	86.1	84.6	85.2	1-4	3-6
Colorado St.	84.4	85.1	84.1	84.5	2-3	3-6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	MWC	Overall
Fresno St.	114.3	113.9	115.0	114.4	5-0	8-1
San Diego St.	99.4	99.4	99.9	99.5	4-1	7-2
Nevada	94.2	94.3	94.4	94.3	3-2	5-4
Hawaii	79.9	81.5	78.8	80.1	3-3	6-5
U N L V	79.7	80.6	79.7	80.0	0-5	2-7
San Jose St.	78.8	79.8	77.5	78.7	1-4	1-8
MWC Averages	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Washington	121.0	118.9	121.6	120.5	5-2	7-3
Stanford	114.6	112.3	114.8	113.9	3-3	5-4
Washington St.	113.0	111.8	112.6	112.5	5-1	8-1
Oregon	109.0	108.9	109.6	109.2	3-3	6-3
California	107.6	105.5	107.6	106.9	2-4	5-4
Oregon St.	85.5	83.4	84.2	84.4	1-5	2-7
South Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	P12	Overall
Utah	115.7	114.0	116.1	115.3	4-3	6-3
Arizona St.	111.3	110.0	111.2	110.8	3-3	5-4
U S C	108.5	106.9	107.7	107.7	4-3	5-4
Arizona	103.8	102.4	104.1	103.4	4-3	5-5
Colorado	100.9	101.3	101.4	101.2	2-4	5-4
U C L A	98.0	97.5	95.7	97.0	2-4	2-7
Pac-12 Averages	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Georgia	128.9	126.3	130.0	128.4	6-1	8-1
Missouri	119.0	117.5	120.1	118.8	1-4	5-4
Kentucky	114.5	113.2	114.4	114.0	5-2	7-2
Florida	111.7	109.9	112.3	111.3	4-3	6-3
S. Carolina	111.6	110.5	111.0	111.0	4-3	5-3
Vanderbilt	102.9	103.0	103.1	103.0	1-4	4-5
Tennessee	98.5	98.9	98.1	98.5	1-4	4-5
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SEC	Overall
Alabama	142.0	140.3	143.6	142.0	6-0	9-0
Mississippi St.	120.4	118.5	121.4	120.1	2-3	6-3
L S U	119.1	118.4	120.2	119.2	4-2	7-2
Auburn	115.5	114.3	116.9	115.6	3-3	6-3
Texas A&M	113.9	112.5	114.1	113.5	3-3	5-4
Ole Miss	103.6	103.1	103.9	103.5	1-4	5-4
Arkansas	99.7	97.2	98.5	98.5	0-5	2-7
SEC Averages	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Appalachian St.	97.7	99.4	99.2	98.7	4-1	6-2
Troy	91.2	92.5	92.7	92.1	5-0	7-2
Georgia Southern	89.9	91.6	90.5	90.7	4-1	7-2
Coastal Carolina	78.8	81.3	79.6	79.9	2-3	5-4
Georgia St.	76.6	78.5	76.8	77.3	1-4	2-7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	SBC	Overall
Arkansas St.	87.8	89.3	89.2	88.8	2-3	5-4
UL-Monroe	85.2	85.7	85.8	85.6	3-2	5-4
Louisiana	82.5	84.7	83.9	83.7	2-3	4-5
South Alabama	75.0	76.8	75.3	75.7	1-4	2-7
Texas State	73.8	76.6	74.1	74.8	1-4	3-6
Sun Belt Averages	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

 

Ranking of Conferences

#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	114.4	113.1	114.8	114.1
2	ACC	110.0	108.8	109.4	109.4
3	B12	109.6	108.2	109.0	108.9
4	BTEN	108.9	107.3	108.4	108.2
5	PAC12	107.4	106.1	107.2	106.9
6	AAC	94.9	95.5	94.9	95.1
7	MWC	93.9	94.5	93.9	94.1
8	IND	93.8	94.0	93.9	93.9
9	MAC	90.1	91.5	90.6	90.7
10	CUSA	85.7	88.4	86.2	86.8
11	SUN	83.8	85.6	84.7	84.7

Top 5 Group of 5

1. Central Florida
2. Fresno St.
3. Utah St.
4. Cincinnati
5. UAB

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conferences		Team 1	Team 2
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	Utah St.	North Texas
Cure	AAC	SBC	South Florida	Appalachian St.
Las Vegas	MWC	Pac-12	Fresno St.	Stanford
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio U	Troy
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	Louisiana
Boca Raton	AAC	CUSA	Cincinnati	Florida Atlantic
Frisco	AAC	At-Large	Houston	[BYU]
Gasparilla	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	Marshall
Bahamas	MAC	CUSA	Toledo	Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Eastern Michigan	Boise St.
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	Tulane	Vanderbilt
Armed Forces	AAC	Big 12	SMU	[Army]
Dollar General	MAC	SBC	Northern Illinois	Georgia Southern
Hawaii	CUSA	MWC	UAB	Hawaii
Heart of Dallas	Big Ten	CUSA	[California]	Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Virginia	[Buffalo]
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Oklahoma St.	Arizona St.
Independence	ACC	SEC	Miami (Fla.)	[Arizona]
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Pittsburgh	Purdue
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	Texas A&M
Music City	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Boston College	Auburn
Camping World	ACC	Big 12	Syracuse	Iowa St.
Arizona	MWC	SBC	San Diego St.	UL-Monroe
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	Texas	Utah
Belk	ACC	SEC	Duke	South Carolina
Peach	At-large	At-large	Central Florida	Kentucky
Military	AAC	ACC	Temple	Virginia Tech
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Georgia Tech	USC
San Francisco	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	Oregon
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	Mississippi St.
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Penn St.	Washington
Gator	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	Missouri
Outback	Big Ten	SEC	Michigan St.	LSU
Fiesta	At-large	At-large	North Carolina St.	West Virginia
Citrus	ACC/Big Ten	SEC	Iowa	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Ohio St.	Washington St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Oklahoma	Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton			Alabama	Michigan
Orange			Clemson	Notre Dame
Championship Game			Alabama	Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Our Predictions on the Selection Committee Top 4

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan

 

Looking Like Many More Bowl Eligible Teams Than Bowls This Year

In recent seasons, teams with 5-7 or 6-7 records qualified for bowl games because there were not enough teams to fill all the bowls.  Thanks to the Poinsettia Bowl folding, this losing record bowl team issue ceased last year.

This year, it looks like the Poinsettia and other bowls could have been created with more than enough bowl eligible teams for as many as 42 bowls.

As we look at the field heading into week 11, we believe that as many as 84 teams will reach bowl eligibility, and there is room for just 78.  When this happens, it hurts the Group of 5 conferences, and that is what we are expecting this year.

Here’s a look at some possible scenarios by each conference.

American Athletic

The AAC has tie-ins with seven bowls, but after this past weekend’s events with Houston and South Florida losing, the path now looks clear for Central Florida to run the table and for the second consecutive year, winning the precious New Year’s 6 Bowl bid.  That would create an eighth spot for the league, and we forecast eight teams to be bowl eligible.

Tulane and SMU now look like legitimate threats to get to 6-6 after the Green Wave blew USF to sea, and the Mustangs ended Houston’s hopes to make the Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

 

Atlantic Coast

Let’s include Notre Dame in this grouping, since the Fighting Irish are eligible for the ACC bowls.  What this means is that two teams from this group should make the NCAA Playoffs, with Clemson joining Notre Dame.

North Carolina State is 6-2 with four very winnable games remaining on their schedule.  Since the Wolf Pack will not be in the ACC Championship Game, and East Carolina will not be in the AAC Championship Game, their contingency late-scheduled game for December will take place, giving NC St. a great shot at 10-2 and possibly a NY6 Bowl.

Counting Notre Dame, we forecast 11 ACC teams to become bowl eligible, and with three going to either the playoffs or NY6, there will be eight remaining bowl eligible teams for eight remaining bowl bids.

 

Big 12

We believe that Oklahoma and West Virginia will face each other in back-to-back weeks, the first game in Morgantown, and the second in the Big 12 Championship Game.  We also believe there is a strong chance these two teams will split these games, and thus no Big 12 team will earn a spot in the Playoffs.

That throws the Big 12 Champion into the Sugar Bowl, while the runner-up is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl.  That takes care of two bowl eligible teams.  We forecast seven Big 12 teams to make bowl eligibility, so there will be five additional teams but there will be six remaining bowls.  This will leave the Armed Forces Bowl without a Big 12 opponent.  This is fine, because there will be a perfect at-large team for this bowl.

 

Big Ten

This has become a quite interesting race, if only in the competitive West Division.  In the East, the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game will be in line for the Playoffs if they can win the Big Ten Championship Game the next week.  That is, of course, it Ohio State can win at Michigan State this week, and that will be a tough task.

We forecast Michigan to win out and make the Playoffs, with Ohio State getting the Rose Bowl bid (even if they lose to the Spartans and finish 9-3).  The rest of the bowl order in this league will be almost cut and dry, because the Big Ten has rules not to send repeat teams to bowls when there are other options.  The repeat extends out to four years.

We forecast the Big Ten to have just eight bowl eligible teams due to tough closing schedules for the four remaining teams in competition for six wins.  Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota look like seven loss teams as of this week.

Thus, the league will come up two teams short in supplying bowl eligible schools, and the Quick Lane and Heart of Dallas Bowl (First Responder Bowl) will not have Big Ten teams this year.

Conference USA

Last year, CUSA had 10 bowl eligible teams, and nine of them earned bowl bids.  UTSA missed out.  This year, it looks like seven teams will get to six wins, and the league has seven bowl bids.  The champion  gets to choose its bowl destination from any of the league tie-ins.  It’s a good bet the champion will choose either the Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl.

Independents

Not counting Notre Dame, three other teams should become bowl eligible.  However, one of those teams is Liberty, and the Flames will not be eligible for a bowl game unless they are not enough bowl eligible teams.  As we mentioned already, there will be a glut and not a dearth this year.

Army is on mark for a 10-2 record, and the aforementioned Armed Forces Bowl would be the ideal location for the Black Knights, even though they played in this bowl last year.  Still, it’s the Armed Forces Bowl!

BYU may only finish 6-6, and the Cougars may be weaker than a half-dozen other bowl eligible schools that do not receive bowl bids.  However, they have a guarantee with ESPN to be placed in a bowl game if they are 6-6.  Thus, they will beat out a team that might be 8-4.  The Frisco Bowl has only one conference tie-in this year, and this is an ESPN-sponsored bowl, so it would be the logical place to send the Cougars.

Mid-American

This is a league almost assured of having more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots, even if the league gets an extra bowl game as the alternate for the Quick Lane Bowl.  In the East, Ohio U and Buffalo are already bowl eligible.  Northern Illinois and Western Michigan are bowl eligible out of the West, and Toledo and Eastern Michigan will soon join them to make it six bowl eligible teams for five bowl games.  Buffalo and Western Michigan were bowl eligible and left out last year, and it would be terrible for one of these two schools to get left out again.  Buffalo could be 10-2 or 11-2 and not the MAC Champion, so it figures that the Bulls have to get a bowl this year, or else they might consider looking elsewhere for a league.

Mountain West

This could be the most unlucky conference of all, where a team with eight wins does not earn a bid.  If a couple of Power 5 conference teams lingering at .500 or just below get to 6-6, and there are many in the running, they will steal bowl spots from the MWC.

We forecast seven MWC teams to make bowl eligibility, which means we believe Wyoming will win their final two games.  Because their last game will be at New Mexico, we think that will keep the Cowboys out of the running for the New Mexico Bowl, and that will keep them out of the bowls altogether.

Nevada is in line to be 8-4 and not make a bowl game if there are enough Power 5 league teams to gobble up all the at-large bids after Army and BYU get their bowl bids.  The Wolfpack are clearly better than Hawaii, but the Rainbows will clinch their hometown bid with a win over lowly UNLV on November 17.

Pac-12

This is the most interesting conference of all this year due to parity.  With three weeks remaining in the conference race, 10 of the 12 teams can still earn the Rose Bowl bid!  There could even be a six-way tie for first place in the six-team South Division!  As the late Dick Enberg would have no doubt said, “Oh my!”

Being a bit more realistic, even when this league tends to shy away from realism, let’s for now say that Washington State continues to win and finish the regular season at 11-1.  The Cougars would then advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game and be a healthy favorite to win and earn the Rose Bowl bid, assuming that they cannot slip into the Playoffs.

In the West, Utah still has a slim advantage over the remaining teams for the division flag, and because it would take another 5,000 words to explain all the possible scenarios, we will forecast the Utes to win the South.

Still, that is going to most likely leave this league with nine bowl eligible teams for seven bowl bids.  The last two in the priority list will likely be California and Arizona, two teams that would no doubt be number one and number two in the at-large pool.

Southeastern

Our forecast for the top league has been undergoing weekly changes, as we forecast 10 bowl eligible teams one week and 11 the next.  This is an 11-team forecast week, as team number 11 is Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are 4-5.  A loss at Missouri this week and then wins at home over Ole Miss and Tennessee would put Vandy at 6-6.  Tennessee is also 4-5, and should the Vols upset Kentucky or Missouri, the season-ending rivalry game in Nashville between the Vols and Commodores could be for the last bowl bid.  If one of these two Volunteer State rivals gets to 6-6, it makes live very bad for Nevada and a team from the MAC.

Sun Belt

This is another league likely to have a glut of bowl eligible teams for their contracted bowl tie-ins.

Troy, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern are already bowl eligible.  Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Monroe need one more win each to get to bowl eligibility, and they should all make it.  Louisiana needs two more wins, and we believe the Ragin’ Cajuns will get those two wins.  This adds up to seven bowl eligible teams for five bowl bids.  Coastal Carolina and one other team will be jilted.  While it should be Louisiana, the boys from Lafayette will get the New Orleans Bowl bid with six wins, as they have many times before.