Tuesday, March 29, 2022 | ||
Team | Team | Spread |
Xavier | St. Bonaventure | -0.2 |
Texas A&M | Washington St. | 0.8 |
March 29, 2022
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Tuesday, March 29, 2022
March 23, 2022
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Wednesday, March 23, 2022
Wednesday, March 23, 2022 | ||
Team | Team | Spread |
Texas A&M | Wake Forest | 2.5 |
BYU | Washington St. | 2.5 |
UNC Wilmington | Middle Tennessee | -0.1 |
Fresno St. | Youngstown St. | 2.5 |
Southern Utah | Portland | 2.5 |
February 10, 2022
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, February 10, 2022
Home | Visitors | Spread |
Wagner | Mount St. Mary’s | 10.4 |
Towson | William & Mary | 19.9 |
Appalachian St. | Georgia Southern | 6.8 |
Central Michigan | Ohio | -14.6 |
Evansville | Indiana St. | -4.6 |
UAB | Southern Miss. | 24.3 |
Middle Tennessee | Old Dominion | 5.6 |
Marshall | Florida International | 2.6 |
Charlotte | Louisiana Tech | -4.7 |
Sacred Heart | Bryant | -4.9 |
Merrimack | Central Connecticut | 6.5 |
Long Island | St. Francis (NY) | 7.4 |
Fairleigh Dickinson | St. Francis (PA) | -2.3 |
Longwood | USC Upstate | 9.0 |
Cleveland St. | Illinois Chicago | 8.6 |
Purdue Fort Wayne | IUPUI | 18.6 |
Troy | Arkansas St. | 2.5 |
Coastal Carolina | Georgia St. | 3.8 |
Western Illinois | North Dakota St. | 1.0 |
VMI | Mercer | 5.6 |
UNC Greensboro | The Citadel | 6.6 |
Drexel | Hofstra | 0.4 |
Delaware | Northeastern | 7.4 |
James Madison | Elon | 6.1 |
Maryland | Iowa | -3.7 |
UL Monroe | UT Arlington | -0.4 |
Clemson | Duke | -6.7 |
Nicholls | Incarnate Word | 14.5 |
SIU Edwardsville | UT Martin | 4.5 |
Belmont | Morehead St. | 9.5 |
Western Kentucky | Florida Atlantic | 4.3 |
New Orleans | Texas A&M-CC | 2.5 |
Utah Valley | Grand Canyon | 1.3 |
Chicago St. | Stephen F. Austin | -13.3 |
Louisiana | Texas St. | 1.8 |
South Alabama | Little Rock | 13.6 |
St. Thomas | North Dakota | 8.2 |
Omaha | South Dakota | -7.4 |
Tennessee St. | Murray St. | -16.5 |
Eastern Illinois | Tennessee Tech | -7.8 |
Austin Peay | Southeast Missouri St. | 4.4 |
Northwestern St. | Houston Baptist | 5.4 |
Gonzaga | Pacific | 34.7 |
Michigan | Purdue | -4.4 |
Washington St. | Arizona | -7.4 |
Saint Mary’s | San Diego | 15.8 |
Oregon | Stanford | 7.9 |
Montana St. | Portland St. | 9.4 |
Montana | Northern Arizona | 11.3 |
Idaho | Idaho St. | 4.0 |
Eastern Washington | Weber St. | -1.6 |
SE Louisiana | McNeese St. | 3.3 |
Dixie St. | New Mexico St. | -10.8 |
Denver | South Dakota St. | -13.4 |
UC Irvine | UC Riverside | 5.5 |
Cal St. Bakersfield | UC Santa Barbara | -4.4 |
Cal Poly | Cal St. Northridge | 3.8 |
Sacramento St. | Northern Colorado | -4.6 |
California Baptist | Lamar | 11.6 |
Seattle | UT Rio Grande Valley | 11.8 |
Washington | Arizona St. | 2.1 |
Loyola Marymount | BYU | -8.1 |
San Francisco | Pepperdine | 20.6 |
Hawaii | Long Beach St. | 4.8 |
February 3, 2022
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Thursday, February 3, 2022
Home | Visitors | Spread |
Bellarmine | Liberty | -1.4 |
Ohio | Eastern Michigan | 14.5 |
Morehead St. | Tennessee Tech | 9.5 |
UT Martin | Southeast Missouri St. | 0.4 |
Eastern Kentucky | Kennesaw St. | 2.6 |
Georgetown | St. John’s | -4.1 |
Delaware | Drexel | 2.9 |
Central Michigan | Western Michigan | 2.6 |
Central Florida | South Florida | 12.9 |
Florida International | Southern Miss. | 8.2 |
Florida Atlantic | Louisiana Tech | -2.6 |
Charlotte | Western Kentucky | -1.3 |
St. Francis (PA) | Bryant | -4.2 |
St. Francis (NY) | Fairleigh Dickinson | 5.6 |
Mount St. Mary’s | Merrimack | 6.4 |
Long Island | Sacred Heart | 7.6 |
Central Connecticut | Wagner | -14.9 |
Winthrop | North Carolina A&T | 8.3 |
IUPUI | Youngstown St. | -13.4 |
Northern Kentucky | Oakland | -5.0 |
Wright St. | Detroit | 2.3 |
Georgia Southern | South Alabama | -3.1 |
Georgia St. | Troy | 3.2 |
Hofstra | Towson | 1.0 |
Elon | UNC Wilmington | -0.3 |
Northeastern | James Madison | -0.2 |
William & Mary | Charleston | -7.7 |
Austin Peay | Murray St. | -14.5 |
Sam Houston | Dixie St. | 9.0 |
Stephen F. Austin | Utah Valley | -0.4 |
Jacksonville St. | North Florida | 13.3 |
Little Rock | Louisiana | -5.4 |
Arizona | UCLA | 6.0 |
Ohio St. | Iowa | 2.6 |
Rice | UTSA | 11.9 |
Old Dominion | Marshall | 4.1 |
Northern Colorado | Portland St. | 6.9 |
Houston Baptist | Northwestern St. | -0.2 |
Illinois Chicago | Robert Morris | 4.7 |
Arkansas St. | UL Monroe | 8.1 |
Texas St. | Appalachian St. | 2.2 |
UMKC | St. Thomas | 5.8 |
Oral Roberts | Western Illinois | 7.0 |
North Dakota St. | Omaha | 16.4 |
North Dakota | Denver | -2.7 |
Lipscomb | Stetson | 3.5 |
Incarnate Word | Nicholls St. | -10.9 |
Tennessee St. | Belmont | -15.1 |
SIU Edwardsville | Eastern Illinois | 12.1 |
Texas A&M-CC | New Orleans | 3.2 |
McNeese St. | SE Louisiana | 1.3 |
Central Arkansas | Florida Gulf Coast | -7.3 |
San Diego | Gonzaga | -21.5 |
Utah St. | San Jose St. | 20.9 |
Wyoming | Boise St. | 0.5 |
Utah | Oregon St. | 6.2 |
Stanford | Washington St. | -2.1 |
Weber St. | Montana | 6.0 |
Southern Utah | Idaho | 13.1 |
Grand Canyon | Seattle | 3.6 |
New Mexico St. | California Baptist | 10.7 |
Santa Clara | Loyola Marymount | 9.5 |
North Alabama | Jacksonville | -0.1 |
Pacific | Pepperdine | 3.9 |
Colorado | Oregon | -1.2 |
Long Beach St. | Cal St. Bakersfield | 4.5 |
UC Santa Barbara | UC Irvine | 0.4 |
Cal St. Fullerton | Cal Poly | 11.3 |
Cal St. Northridge | UC San Diego | -1.8 |
Sacramento St. | Northern Arizona | 3.7 |
BYU | San Francisco | 3.3 |
Arizona St. | USC | -6.7 |
California | Washington | 4.7 |
UC Riverside | Hawaii | 3.4 |
Portland | Saint Mary’s | -13.4 |
January 30, 2022
PiRate Ratings College Basketball–Sunday, January 30, 2022
Home | Visitors | Spread |
Brown | Cornell | 4.5 |
Purdue | Ohio St. | 9.2 |
East Carolina | Cincinnati | -5.9 |
Wright St. | Purdue Fort Wayne | 4.4 |
Northern Kentucky | Cleveland St. | -1.4 |
George Washington | Fordham | -1.5 |
Providence | Marquette | 1.1 |
Wisconsin | Minnesota | 9.2 |
Fairleigh Dickinson | Central Connecticut | 1.3 |
Bryant | Long Island | 5.1 |
Iona | Saint Peter’s | 11.1 |
Morgan St. | Delaware St. | 14.1 |
St. Francis (NY) | Wagner | -11.8 |
Drake | Loyola (Chi.) | -3.2 |
Bradley | Indiana St. | 7.9 |
Massachusetts | George Mason | 8.7 |
Siena | Quinnipiac | 0.4 |
Manhattan | Marist | -2.0 |
Monmouth | Niagara | 8.5 |
Rider | Canisius | 1.9 |
Boston College | Pittsburgh | 4.0 |
Southern Illinois | Valparaiso | 5.8 |
Bucknell | Loyola (MD) | -3.9 |
McNeese St. | New Orleans | 0.7 |
Washington St. | Colorado | 5.8 |
January 10, 2022
PiRate Ratings Bracketology
Date | 1/10/2022 | |||||
Seed | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team | Team |
1 | Baylor | Houston | LSU | Arizona | ||
2 | Gonzaga | Auburn | Kansas | Purdue | ||
3 | Villanova | Illinois | Duke | USC | ||
4 | Tennessee | Kentucky | Texas | Michigan St. | ||
5 | UCLA | Xavier | Connecticut | Texas Tech | ||
6 | Alabama | Ohio St. | Wisconsin | Seton Hall | ||
7 | Loyola (Chi.) | Iowa | BYU | Indiana | ||
8 | Iowa St. | North Carolina | Oklahoma | Virginia Tech | ||
9 | West Virginia | San Diego St. | San Francisco | Providence | ||
10 | Saint Mary’s | Mississippi St. | Washington St. | Marquette | ||
11 | Colorado St. | Memphis | Florida | Boise St. | Wake Forest | Michigan |
12 | Belmont | Chattanooga | Davidson | UAB | ||
13 | Ohio | Iona | Towson | New Mexico St. | ||
14 | Oakland | UC-Irvine | Wagner | Princeton | ||
15 | Vermont | South Dakota St. | Liberty | Navy | ||
16 | Texas St. | Weber St. | Gardner-Webb | Nicholls St. | Texas Southern | Howard |
Last Four Byes: Washington St., Marquette, Colorado St., Memphis
Last Four In: Florida, Boise St., Wake Forest, Michigan
First Four Out: Clemson, Wyoming, VCU, TCU
Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Murray St., Fresno St., Creighton
December 27, 2021
A New Sun Bowl
With Miami of Florida having to back out of the Sun Bowl and Boise State having to back out of the Arizona Bowl due to multiple positive Covid cases, The Arizona Bowl has been cancelled, and the Sun Bowl has now extended an invitation to Central Michigan to face Washington State. Below are the new PiRate Ratings spreads for that game.
Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
Washington St. | Central Michigan | 7.2 | 9.3 | 9.4 |
November 11, 2021
PiRate Picks–November 11-13, 2021
We almost made it, but a small miss is as good as a long mile. Last week, with a fourth consecutive winning week looking promising, a couple of fourth quarters went against us, and alas we suffered a tiny loss of 0.9%, or less than $5 on $500 invested in imaginary currency.
For the year, our net profit is now 4.88%, so we are still in the black, just barely. This week, we delayed by a day putting this feature online. The reason is that we did not like the overall numbers and wanted the betting public to help us out by moving the money lines just enough for our program to show the parlays to have an edge by finding the best lines. After looking at 11 different books, we still could only find three wagers to play. Four more were monitored closely and might have eventually moved to make them playable, but we like to publish this before Noon on Thursday, and the movements aren’t moving this morning (Thursday at 9:30 AM EST).
These next two weeks historically have seen monumental upsets in college football when teams that appear to be superior to the opponents they are playing have hidden depth issues. It’s not just players that don’t dress out. By this point in the schedule most college teams have 10-20 players that are playing with minor injuries and are not the same as they were four weeks ago. We look for teams that win consistently through the first week in November but tend to lose power ratings while winning, because instead of producing a statistics box that looks like a 20-point win, they produce a statistics box of 15-17 points, and then 10-14 points. We do not update our ratings by final score. We look at the statistics and make a score adjustment based on the domination or lack thereof and then update. A team that wins by 28 points and is out-gained by 50 yards where the opponent lost fumbles in the Red Zone may actually receive credit for a 14-point “effective win.” A team that wins by 11 points but ends the game at the opponent’s five yard line and chooses to take a knee may receive credit for an 18-point effective win.
You will also notice that since early in the season, we have stopped playing NFL parlays in this feature. The variance in the games is making it impossible for our method to isolate on enough games to make a favorable parlay. We think there are two reasons for this. First, even though there are lousy teams like Detroit, there are no dominant teams that can be counted on to win when they are favored by less than a touchdown. Second, now that many millions more people can legally wager, the odds no longer move by large enough amounts to create favorable odds. There are 60+ college games to find favorable numbers, and the public may not find a Mountain West Conference game worth much, while we do. There are 13-16 NFL games per week, and even Detroit, San Francisco, and Miami get heavy action. We’d like to play three underdogs this week, but the numbers are not favorable according to our program.
Here are our three selections for this week. Remember, we never wager real money on these picks. If we don’t, do you think you should?
Odds: | +185 |
Must Win | Opponent |
East Carolina | Memphis |
Odds: | +205.47 |
Must Win | Opponent |
Kansas St. | West Virginia |
Air Force | Colorado St. |
Oklahoma St. | TCU |
Odds: | +152.71 |
Must Win | Opponent |
Louisiana | Troy |
Oklahoma | Baylor |
Oregon | Washington St. |
January 23, 2020
PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 23, 2020
Games Being Played Thursday
Home |
Visitor |
Spread |
UNC Asheville |
Radford |
-4.4 |
Ohio St. |
Minnesota |
7.7 |
Hofstra |
Delaware |
6.7 |
Stetson |
NJIT |
-0.1 |
Kennesaw St. |
North Alabama |
-6.1 |
William & Mary |
James Madison |
10.2 |
Cleveland St. |
Green Bay |
-3.1 |
Detroit |
IUPUI |
7.0 |
Winthrop |
USC Upstate |
16.3 |
Northeastern |
Drexel |
7.4 |
Oakland |
Illinois Chicago |
5.7 |
Youngstown St |
Milwaukee |
3.6 |
Murray St. |
Belmont |
-1.1 |
High Point |
Gardner-Webb |
-6.5 |
Old Dominion |
Florida Intl. |
3.0 |
Central Connecticut |
Sacred Heart |
-13.4 |
Merrimack |
Fairleigh Dickinson |
7.4 |
Long Island |
St. Francis (PA) |
0.6 |
St. Francis (NY) |
Robert Morris |
-3.2 |
North Florida |
Liberty |
-4.9 |
Charlotte |
Florida Atlantic |
4.9 |
Bryant |
Wagner |
8.7 |
Hampton |
Campbell |
-2.3 |
Elon |
Towson |
-5.8 |
Lipscomb |
Jacksonville |
2.2 |
Charleston Southern |
Presbyterian |
5.9 |
Middle Tennessee |
Louisiana Tech |
-12.0 |
North Texas |
UTSA |
10.1 |
Rice |
UTEP |
-2.0 |
Arkansas St. |
South Alabama |
0.2 |
Omaha |
Western Illinois |
11.6 |
South Dakota |
Purdue Fort Wayne |
7.1 |
Utah |
Washington |
-3.4 |
North Dakota |
Denver |
9.3 |
UAB |
Southern Miss |
8.7 |
Indiana |
Michigan St. |
-3.4 |
Austin Peay |
Tennessee St. |
7.5 |
Missouri St. |
Valparaiso |
3.4 |
SIU-Edwardsville |
SEMO |
0.8 |
Tennessee Tech |
Morehead St. |
-3.2 |
Eastern Illinois |
UT-Martin |
8.9 |
Jacksonville St. |
Eastern Kentucky |
8.8 |
Grand Canyon |
Seattle |
1.6 |
Idaho St. |
Montana |
-1.8 |
Weber St. |
Montana St. |
0.2 |
Houston |
UConn |
9.1 |
Colorado |
Washington St. |
12.8 |
Loyola Marymount |
Portland |
5.6 |
Santa Clara |
Pepperdine |
3.8 |
Cal St. Bakersfield |
Utah Valley |
6.2 |
Interesting Analytics
Every year at this time, the PiRates begin looking at some of the advanced analytics that we have used to gauge potential NCAA Tournament success.
Our R+T Rating ™, is our personal creation that attempts to predict how many more opportunities to score a team might have in a game as compared to an average team. It relies on rebounding margin and turnover margin with an added emphasis on steals and protecting the ball from being stolen by the other team. It attempts to estimate the potential extra points available to the team due to the “hustle stats.”
In the past, when a team has an R+T of 15.0 or better, that team has the ability to score on enough extra opportunities to go on a big spurt and put another team away. When UCLA was the dominant basketball team during John Wooden’s runs, their R+T stats were always at the top of the nation. When they had the 1964 small lineup that went 30-0, the 2-2-1 zone press created turnover after turnover by the opponent with a lot of steals. These extra opportunities prevented the other team from scoring, but they also led to easy fast break points, and the Bruins had incredible scoring spurts in every game, the most famous being the incredible 16-0 run in just over two minutes before halftime that put NCAA Championship Game with Duke out of reach.
The Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul Jabbar) and Bill Walton years saw the Bruins totally dominating on the glass while still getting a nice number of steals and forcing turnovers. These UCLA teams frequently had 20 extra scoring opportunities a game, and with Jabbar and Walton both hitting better than 60% from the field, the Bruins were unstoppable.
Long after UCLA won those 10 titles, the ability to get extra scoring opportunities has remained consistently and vitally important in NCAA Tournament games. To get to the Big Dance, teams must display an ability to play very tough defense, and teams with good offenses and little else become pretenders when every opponent they face will play much better defense than the average opponent in the regular season. Thus, the ability to create extra scoring opportunities and the ability to prevent extra scoring opportunities take precedence over just being able to shoot the ball more accurately than the opponent.
Obviously, we do not throw the baby out with the bath water. Shooting is still quite important. After all, the object of the game is to put the ball in the basket more than the other team. If a team gets 10 more chances to put the ball in the basket, but they shoot like our Captain trying to putt at Pebble Beach, 30 more chances might not be enough to overcome the inaccurate marksmanship. Obviously, shooting ability and ability to prevent made shots remain important.
Then, there is the third key factor. If State only plays Southeast Northwest Community College and similar teams, they will inevitably end up with impressive stats. If Tech plays Kansas, Duke, Maryland, Oregon, and Kentucky out of conference, it is going to be difficult, make that impossible, to end up with stats as impressive at State. Thus strength of schedule must play as important a roll as the other two stats. Think of schedule strength in the same vein as class in thoroughbred horse racing, where a winner of a claiming race is not going to compete well against the fifth place winner from a Grade 1 Classic race, even if in the last two races, their times for 1 1/8 miles were about the same.
Let’s put all three key stats together and look at a sampling of teams that are producing quality numbers across the board.
Team |
R+T |
TS% |
SOS |
Baylor |
19.1 |
5.8 |
55.1 |
Butler |
15.2 |
8.8 |
57.2 |
UC-Irvine |
20.2 |
5.6 |
50.4 |
Duke |
21.5 |
8.4 |
55.7 |
Gonzaga |
27.7 |
10.1 |
49.0 |
Houston |
25.5 |
4.2 |
54.4 |
Illinois |
22.2 |
6.2 |
55.4 |
Indiana |
20.6 |
3.2 |
54.7 |
Kansas |
18.5 |
10.9 |
62.7 |
Kentucky |
16.2 |
8.3 |
52.2 |
Liberty |
15.9 |
12.6 |
43.4 |
Louisiana State |
16.9 |
6.6 |
54.4 |
Maryland |
16.7 |
5.2 |
58.4 |
Michigan State |
21.6 |
10.2 |
57.7 |
New Mexico State |
18.3 |
4.3 |
49.3 |
Oral Roberts |
16.3 |
2.1 |
53.6 |
Rutgers |
19.7 |
6.2 |
55.7 |
San Diego State |
18.4 |
9.9 |
49.6 |
Southern Utah |
15.7 |
8 |
48.2 |
Stephen F. Austin |
22.5 |
2.9 |
42.7 |
Utah State |
20.8 |
6.5 |
52.3 |
West Virginia |
21.7 |
5.9 |
58.8 |
What you see above are the R+T ratings for 22 teams in column 1. The formula for R+T is: (R * 2) + (S * .5) + (6 – Opp S) + T, where R is rebounding margin per game, S is steals per game, Opp S is opponents’ steals per game, and T is turnover margin (Opponents Turnovers minus Teams’ Turnovers divided by games played).
Another excellent formula that estimates extra scoring chances per game is the formula by the brilliant Jordan Sperber, creator of Hoop Vision. Jordan’s formula is: (Team’s OEff)-((100.9/49.0)*(Team’s eFG%)), where OEff is offensive efficiency, the number 100.9 represents the average Division 1 team’s offensive efficiency, the number 49.0 represents the average Division 1 team’s effective FG%, and eFG% is effective FG%. The result represents the extra chances to utilize effective FG%, and like everything else Jordan does, it is a great tool. By the way, Jordan has worked for my number one rated Mid-Major coach of last year (Eric Musselman), and my number one rated Mid-Major coach of this year (Chris Jans). His analytics have helped both coaches strategize the way they coach. Check out Jordan’s website at: https://hoopvision.substack.com
In column 2 above, you see TS%. This stands for true shooting percentage, which in this case actually stands for the difference in the team’s offensive TS% and the defensive TS%. To calculate TS%, the formula is: (100 * points scored) / (2 * [FG Attempts + {.475 * FT Attempts}])
The final column represents strength of schedule. 50 is considered an average schedule strength. 55 is considered a strong schedule strength. 60 is considered a tough schedule strength. Below 45 is considered too weak to consider a team a legitimate contender in the Big Dance.
Gonzaga has the top R+T rating in the nation at the present time. Their TS% difference is in the top 10, so the Bulldogs should be considered a key contender to run the table in the NCAA Tournament this year, correct? No, that is not correct. Gonzaga’s strength of schedule (SOS) is too low. At 49.0, the other two stats must be discounted. Gonzaga’s remaining schedule will not give the Bulldogs enough increase in SOS to take their R+T and TS% stats seriously. This does not mean they will lose to a 16-seed in the first game. What it means is that when they get to the Sweet 16 and face an opponent with a better SOS and strong R+T and TS%, they will be ripe for the upset.
Baylor, Butler, Duke, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan State, Rutgers, and West Virginia have the best resumes today. They have excellent R+T, TS%, and SOS numbers. It should be no surprise that the Big 12 and Big Ten are the two best conferences so far this season.
Kentucky and LSU fall just short of the elites in this test. Neither team has the important 55 or better SOS mark, although both teams could eventually get over that key number.
Among the mid-major teams to keep an eye on, there are four teams in the West that could be sleepers for the Sweet 16 if they make the dance. UC-Irvine, New Mexico State, Southern Utah, and Utah State all have strong R+T and TS% numbers with SOS that isn’t totally weak. Contrast that to Liberty and Stephen F. Austin, two teams where the schedule strength doesn’t cut it.
Then, there are two teams high in the rankings from the lower tier of major conferences. Houston and San Diego State have excellent numbers, but their schedule strengths make them both on the outside looking in when compared to the power conference teams. Frequently, teams like these two can make a run to the second weekend of the tournament, and once or twice a decade, they will sneak into the Final Four. However, when it comes to cut the nets and hear “One Shining Moment,” the happy team is one that comes from one of the top 5 power conferences.
As of today, the top 5 power conferences are: The Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, Atlantic Coast, and Southeastern Conferences.
November 11, 2018
PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 12
This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads
Tuesday | November 13 | |||
Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
Ball St. | Western Michigan | -6.3 | -6.0 | -7.9 |
Wednesday | November 14 | |||
Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
Ohio U | Buffalo | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
Northern Illinois | Miami (O) | 7.1 | 6.5 | 5.4 |
Thursday | November 15 | |||
Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
Kent St. | Toledo | -16.5 | -16.7 | -16.3 |
Houston | Tulane | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.7 |
North Texas | Florida Atlantic | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.2 |
Friday | November 16 | |||
Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
SMU | Memphis | -4.4 | -6.0 | -5.8 |
New Mexico | Boise St. | -23.1 | -21.5 | -23.7 |
Saturday | November 17 | |||
Home | Visitor | PiRate | Mean | Bias |
Michigan | Indiana | 32.8 | 32.7 | 33.6 |
Wake Forest | Pittsburgh | -2.5 | -3.8 | -4.1 |
Illinois | Iowa | -21.0 | -19.7 | -21.9 |
Purdue | Wisconsin | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
Georgia Tech | Virginia | 11.6 | 10.6 | 12.2 |
Minnesota | Northwestern | -8.4 | -8.0 | -9.0 |
Clemson | Duke | 30.1 | 29.6 | 31.6 |
Rutgers | Penn St. | -28.1 | -26.4 | -29.3 |
Kansas St. | Texas Tech | -4.8 | -4.7 | -4.7 |
East Carolina | Connecticut | 12.7 | 12.1 | 13.2 |
Temple | South Florida | 15.3 | 14.1 | 16.7 |
Georgia | Massachusetts | 51.8 | 47.9 | 52.7 |
Coastal Carolina | Georgia Southern | -9.6 | -8.7 | -9.3 |
Tennessee | Missouri | -13.0 | -11.1 | -14.3 |
Kentucky | Middle Tennessee | 20.3 | 17.1 | 19.2 |
Maryland | Ohio St. | -16.4 | -16.0 | -17.4 |
Louisville | North Carolina St. | -17.1 | -16.9 | -17.7 |
Central Florida | Cincinnati | 15.6 | 14.0 | 15.1 |
Auburn | Liberty | 36.4 | 35.5 | 37.3 |
Charlotte | Florida Int’l. | -8.6 | -9.9 | -8.5 |
BYU | New Mexico St. | 31.1 | 29.9 | 31.9 |
Wyoming | Air Force | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Colorado | Utah | -13.2 | -11.5 | -13.3 |
Colorado St. | Utah St. | -26.3 | -27.1 | -28.0 |
Notre Dame | Syracuse | 16.2 | 14.9 | 15.9 |
Appalachian St. | Georgia St. | 24.7 | 24.7 | 26.1 |
Marshall | UTSA | 24.9 | 23.6 | 25.7 |
California | Stanford | -5.0 | -4.8 | -5.2 |
Oregon | Arizona St. | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
Washington St. | Arizona | 13.2 | 13.5 | 12.6 |
San Jose St. | Nevada | -15.4 | -14.7 | -17.0 |
Baylor | TCU | -1.4 | -1.5 | 0.3 |
Navy | Tulsa | 1.1 | 3.5 | 0.8 |
Texas A&M | UAB | 18.6 | 14.6 | 17.9 |
Mississippi St. | Arkansas | 23.4 | 23.7 | 25.2 |
Oklahoma St. | West Virginia | -5.4 | -6.2 | -4.9 |
Southern Miss. | Louisiana Tech | -4.1 | -3.0 | -4.4 |
Akron | Bowling Green | 9.8 | 10.2 | 9.5 |
LSU | Rice | 54.4 | 50.8 | 56.2 |
Vanderbilt | Ole Miss | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
Florida St. | Boston College | -8.5 | -7.6 | -9.4 |
Oklahoma | Kansas | 27.7 | 27.9 | 29.4 |
Washington | Oregon St. | 38.8 | 38.8 | 40.7 |
Arkansas St. | UL-Monroe | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.7 |
Troy | Texas St. | 22.1 | 20.9 | 23.6 |
Louisiana | South Alabama | 12.1 | 12.8 | 13.4 |
Virginia Tech | Miami (Fla.) | -3.6 | -3.2 | -3.5 |
Western Kentucky | UTEP | 8.4 | 8.3 | 9.0 |
Nebraska | Michigan St. | -11.1 | -10.1 | -11.5 |
Texas | Iowa St. | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
UCLA | USC | -7.4 | -6.3 | -8.6 |
Fresno St. | San Diego St. | 20.1 | 19.7 | 20.3 |
Hawaii | UNLV | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
FBS | FCS | |
Home | Visitor | PiRate |
Florida | Idaho | 33.0 |
Alabama | Citadel | 58.2 |
Army | Colgate | 21.2 |
Old Dominion | VMI | 20.9 |
North Carolina | Western Carolina | 25.6 |
South Carolina | Chattanooga | 36.0 |
This Week’s PiRate Ratings
PiRate Ratings | |||||
# | Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
1 | Alabama | 142.0 | 140.3 | 143.6 | 142.0 |
2 | Clemson | 139.2 | 136.9 | 140.1 | 138.7 |
3 | Michigan | 130.0 | 128.8 | 130.7 | 129.8 |
4 | Georgia | 129.0 | 126.5 | 130.2 | 128.5 |
5 | Notre Dame | 125.2 | 122.7 | 124.3 | 124.0 |
6 | Ohio St. | 123.2 | 121.3 | 123.2 | 122.6 |
7 | Oklahoma | 122.1 | 120.8 | 122.2 | 121.7 |
8 | Washington | 121.3 | 119.2 | 121.9 | 120.8 |
9 | Mississippi St. | 120.4 | 118.5 | 121.4 | 120.1 |
10 | L S U | 118.7 | 117.8 | 119.5 | 118.7 |
11 | Missouri | 118.3 | 116.9 | 119.3 | 118.1 |
12 | West Virginia | 118.2 | 117.3 | 117.6 | 117.7 |
13 | Penn St. | 118.3 | 115.7 | 118.1 | 117.4 |
14 | Michigan St. | 116.6 | 114.5 | 116.1 | 115.8 |
15 | Boston College | 116.3 | 114.1 | 116.1 | 115.5 |
16 | Auburn | 115.4 | 114.1 | 116.7 | 115.4 |
17 | Utah | 115.6 | 114.0 | 116.0 | 115.2 |
18 | Iowa | 115.5 | 113.6 | 115.1 | 114.7 |
19 | Iowa State | 114.6 | 113.1 | 114.4 | 114.0 |
20 | Georgia Tech | 114.3 | 113.3 | 114.1 | 113.9 |
21 | Stanford | 114.6 | 112.3 | 114.8 | 113.9 |
22 | Central Florida | 113.7 | 113.9 | 113.8 | 113.8 |
23 | Washington St. | 114.2 | 113.2 | 114.0 | 113.8 |
24 | Fresno St. | 113.6 | 113.1 | 114.0 | 113.6 |
25 | Texas A&M | 113.9 | 112.6 | 114.2 | 113.6 |
26 | Texas | 113.8 | 112.3 | 113.3 | 113.1 |
27 | Utah St. | 111.2 | 112.7 | 112.5 | 112.1 |
28 | Miami | 112.8 | 111.1 | 111.9 | 112.0 |
29 | Florida | 111.8 | 110.1 | 112.3 | 111.4 |
30 | Syracuse | 111.9 | 110.8 | 111.4 | 111.4 |
31 | Duke | 112.2 | 110.2 | 111.4 | 111.3 |
32 | Northwestern | 111.7 | 110.1 | 111.7 | 111.2 |
33 | Wisconsin | 112.1 | 109.5 | 111.2 | 110.9 |
34 | S. Carolina | 111.5 | 110.3 | 111.0 | 110.9 |
35 | Kentucky | 110.7 | 109.4 | 110.6 | 110.2 |
36 | Boise St. | 110.3 | 109.8 | 110.4 | 110.2 |
37 | N. Carolina St. | 110.5 | 109.7 | 109.9 | 110.0 |
38 | Arizona St. | 110.5 | 109.2 | 110.1 | 109.9 |
39 | Texas Tech | 110.5 | 109.1 | 109.5 | 109.7 |
40 | Purdue | 110.0 | 108.4 | 109.8 | 109.4 |
41 | Oregon | 109.1 | 108.9 | 109.7 | 109.2 |
42 | Oklahoma St. | 109.8 | 108.1 | 109.7 | 109.2 |
43 | Pittsburgh | 109.1 | 108.6 | 108.9 | 108.9 |
44 | California | 108.1 | 106.0 | 108.1 | 107.4 |
45 | U S C | 108.0 | 106.4 | 107.2 | 107.2 |
46 | Virginia Tech | 106.2 | 104.9 | 105.4 | 105.5 |
47 | Virginia | 105.7 | 105.8 | 104.9 | 105.5 |
48 | Temple | 104.1 | 104.3 | 105.0 | 104.5 |
49 | T C U | 105.4 | 103.9 | 103.6 | 104.3 |
50 | Florida St. | 104.8 | 103.6 | 103.8 | 104.0 |
51 | Vanderbilt | 103.6 | 103.6 | 103.9 | 103.7 |
52 | Arizona | 104.1 | 102.7 | 104.4 | 103.7 |
53 | Army | 103.3 | 104.0 | 103.5 | 103.6 |
54 | Ole Miss | 103.6 | 103.0 | 103.8 | 103.4 |
55 | Memphis | 102.3 | 103.6 | 103.1 | 103.0 |
56 | Wake Forest | 104.2 | 102.3 | 102.4 | 102.9 |
57 | Maryland | 103.7 | 102.3 | 102.8 | 102.9 |
58 | Tennessee | 102.3 | 102.7 | 101.9 | 102.3 |
59 | Kansas St. | 102.8 | 101.4 | 101.7 | 102.0 |
60 | Cincinnati | 101.2 | 102.9 | 101.7 | 101.9 |
61 | Nebraska | 102.6 | 101.4 | 101.7 | 101.9 |
62 | Buffalo | 100.5 | 102.5 | 101.8 | 101.6 |
63 | Baylor | 102.0 | 100.4 | 101.8 | 101.4 |
64 | BYU | 100.4 | 101.0 | 101.1 | 100.8 |
65 | Houston | 100.2 | 100.7 | 100.4 | 100.4 |
66 | Ohio U | 99.5 | 100.7 | 100.4 | 100.2 |
67 | N. Carolina | 100.2 | 99.4 | 100.0 | 99.9 |
68 | Indiana | 100.2 | 99.1 | 100.0 | 99.8 |
69 | Minnesota | 100.4 | 99.1 | 99.7 | 99.7 |
70 | Appalachian St. | 98.5 | 100.4 | 100.1 | 99.6 |
71 | Colorado | 99.4 | 99.6 | 99.7 | 99.6 |
72 | U A B | 98.3 | 101.0 | 99.3 | 99.6 |
73 | Northern Illinois | 98.6 | 99.6 | 99.0 | 99.1 |
74 | Arkansas | 100.1 | 97.8 | 99.2 | 99.0 |
75 | U C L A | 99.1 | 98.6 | 97.1 | 98.2 |
76 | Toledo | 97.4 | 98.7 | 97.2 | 97.8 |
77 | N. Texas | 96.9 | 99.2 | 97.1 | 97.7 |
78 | Florida Atlantic | 97.0 | 98.2 | 97.5 | 97.6 |
79 | Nevada | 96.6 | 96.8 | 97.0 | 96.8 |
80 | Air Force | 96.3 | 97.1 | 97.0 | 96.8 |
81 | San Diego St. | 96.5 | 96.5 | 96.8 | 96.6 |
82 | Kansas | 97.4 | 95.9 | 95.8 | 96.4 |
83 | Tulane | 95.8 | 96.3 | 95.7 | 95.9 |
84 | Eastern Michigan | 95.2 | 96.7 | 95.7 | 95.9 |
85 | Miami (O) | 94.4 | 96.2 | 96.6 | 95.7 |
86 | Marshall | 94.2 | 96.8 | 95.3 | 95.5 |
87 | Wyoming | 95.0 | 95.1 | 94.6 | 94.9 |
88 | SMU | 95.0 | 94.6 | 94.3 | 94.6 |
89 | Middle Tennessee | 93.4 | 95.3 | 94.4 | 94.4 |
90 | Troy | 92.6 | 94.0 | 94.3 | 93.6 |
91 | Louisiana Tech | 91.8 | 93.8 | 92.5 | 92.7 |
92 | South Florida | 91.3 | 92.7 | 90.8 | 91.6 |
93 | Illinois | 92.0 | 91.4 | 90.7 | 91.4 |
94 | Florida Int’l. | 89.7 | 93.4 | 90.4 | 91.2 |
95 | Arkansas St. | 89.4 | 90.9 | 90.9 | 90.4 |
96 | Louisville | 90.9 | 90.3 | 89.7 | 90.3 |
97 | Tulsa | 90.0 | 89.6 | 90.0 | 89.9 |
98 | Western Michigan | 88.7 | 90.3 | 89.7 | 89.6 |
99 | Georgia Southern | 88.8 | 90.4 | 89.2 | 89.5 |
100 | Navy | 88.1 | 90.0 | 87.8 | 88.7 |
101 | Akron | 87.9 | 88.9 | 87.6 | 88.2 |
102 | UL-Monroe | 87.0 | 87.7 | 87.8 | 87.5 |
103 | Rutgers | 87.7 | 86.7 | 86.3 | 86.9 |
104 | Southern Miss. | 85.6 | 88.7 | 86.0 | 86.8 |
105 | New Mexico | 84.7 | 85.8 | 84.2 | 84.9 |
106 | Oregon St. | 85.5 | 83.4 | 84.2 | 84.4 |
107 | Louisiana | 82.8 | 85.1 | 84.3 | 84.1 |
108 | East Carolina | 83.8 | 83.7 | 83.5 | 83.7 |
109 | Old Dominion | 82.2 | 85.4 | 82.1 | 83.3 |
110 | U N L V | 81.9 | 82.8 | 82.1 | 82.3 |
111 | Colorado St. | 82.0 | 82.6 | 81.5 | 82.0 |
112 | Liberty | 82.0 | 81.5 | 82.4 | 82.0 |
113 | Central Michigan | 80.3 | 82.4 | 80.5 | 81.1 |
114 | Massachusetts | 80.2 | 81.6 | 80.5 | 80.8 |
115 | Hawaii | 80.2 | 81.8 | 79.1 | 80.4 |
116 | Ball St. | 79.9 | 81.9 | 79.3 | 80.4 |
117 | Bowling Green | 80.1 | 80.7 | 80.1 | 80.3 |
118 | W. Kentucky | 79.1 | 81.9 | 79.5 | 80.2 |
119 | Charlotte | 79.1 | 81.5 | 79.9 | 80.2 |
120 | Kent St. | 78.9 | 80.0 | 78.9 | 79.3 |
121 | San Jose St. | 78.7 | 79.6 | 77.5 | 78.6 |
122 | Coastal Carolina | 77.2 | 79.7 | 77.9 | 78.3 |
123 | Georgia St. | 76.3 | 78.1 | 76.4 | 76.9 |
124 | U T E P | 73.1 | 76.2 | 73.1 | 74.1 |
125 | Connecticut | 74.1 | 74.6 | 73.3 | 74.0 |
126 | Texas State | 73.0 | 75.6 | 73.2 | 73.9 |
127 | South Alabama | 73.2 | 74.8 | 73.3 | 73.8 |
128 | U T S A | 72.4 | 76.2 | 72.6 | 73.8 |
129 | N. Mexico St. | 72.3 | 74.1 | 72.2 | 72.9 |
130 | Rice | 67.3 | 70.0 | 66.3 | 67.9 |
PiRate Ratings by Conference
American Athletic Conference | ||||||
East Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | AAC | Overall |
Central Florida | 113.7 | 113.9 | 113.8 | 113.8 | 6-0 | 9-0 |
Temple | 104.1 | 104.3 | 105.0 | 104.5 | 5-1 | 6-4 |
Cincinnati | 101.2 | 102.9 | 101.7 | 101.9 | 5-1 | 9-1 |
South Florida | 91.3 | 92.7 | 90.8 | 91.6 | 3-3 | 7-3 |
East Carolina | 83.8 | 83.7 | 83.5 | 83.7 | 0-6 | 2-7 |
Connecticut | 74.1 | 74.6 | 73.3 | 74.0 | 0-6 | 1-9 |
West Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | AAC | Overall |
Memphis | 102.3 | 103.6 | 103.1 | 103.0 | 3-3 | 6-4 |
Houston | 100.2 | 100.7 | 100.4 | 100.4 | 4-2 | 7-3 |
Tulane | 95.8 | 96.3 | 95.7 | 95.9 | 4-2 | 5-5 |
SMU | 95.0 | 94.6 | 94.3 | 94.6 | 4-2 | 5-5 |
Tulsa | 90.0 | 89.6 | 90.0 | 89.9 | 1-5 | 2-8 |
Navy | 88.1 | 90.0 | 87.8 | 88.7 | 1-5 | 2-8 |
AAC Averages | 95.0 | 95.6 | 95.0 | 95.2 | ||
Atlantic Coast Conference | ||||||
Atlantic Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | ACC | Overall |
Clemson | 139.2 | 136.9 | 140.1 | 138.7 | 7-0 | 10-0 |
Boston College | 116.3 | 114.1 | 116.1 | 115.5 | 4-2 | 7-3 |
Syracuse | 111.9 | 110.8 | 111.4 | 111.4 | 5-2 | 8-2 |
N. Carolina St. | 110.5 | 109.7 | 109.9 | 110.0 | 3-3 | 6-3 |
Florida St. | 104.8 | 103.6 | 103.8 | 104.0 | 2-5 | 4-6 |
Wake Forest | 104.2 | 102.3 | 102.4 | 102.9 | 2-4 | 5-5 |
Louisville | 90.9 | 90.3 | 89.7 | 90.3 | 0-7 | 2-8 |
Coastal Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | ACC | Overall |
Georgia Tech | 114.3 | 113.3 | 114.1 | 113.9 | 4-3 | 6-4 |
Miami | 112.8 | 111.1 | 111.9 | 112.0 | 2-4 | 5-5 |
Duke | 112.2 | 110.2 | 111.4 | 111.3 | 3-3 | 7-3 |
Pittsburgh | 109.1 | 108.6 | 108.9 | 108.9 | 5-1 | 6-4 |
Virginia Tech | 106.2 | 104.9 | 105.4 | 105.5 | 3-3 | 4-5 |
Virginia | 105.7 | 105.8 | 104.9 | 105.5 | 4-2 | 7-3 |
N. Carolina | 100.2 | 99.4 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 1-6 | 1-8 |
ACC Averages | 109.9 | 108.7 | 109.3 | 109.3 | ||
Big 12 Conference | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | B12 | Overall |
Oklahoma | 122.1 | 120.8 | 122.2 | 121.7 | 6-1 | 9-1 |
West Virginia | 118.2 | 117.3 | 117.6 | 117.7 | 6-1 | 8-1 |
Iowa State | 114.6 | 113.1 | 114.4 | 114.0 | 5-2 | 6-3 |
Texas | 113.8 | 112.3 | 113.3 | 113.1 | 5-2 | 7-3 |
Texas Tech | 110.5 | 109.1 | 109.5 | 109.7 | 3-4 | 5-5 |
Oklahoma St. | 109.8 | 108.1 | 109.7 | 109.2 | 2-5 | 5-5 |
T C U | 105.4 | 103.9 | 103.6 | 104.3 | 2-5 | 4-6 |
Kansas St. | 102.8 | 101.4 | 101.7 | 102.0 | 2-5 | 4-6 |
Baylor | 102.0 | 100.4 | 101.8 | 101.4 | 3-4 | 5-5 |
Kansas | 97.4 | 95.9 | 95.8 | 96.4 | 1-6 | 3-7 |
Big 12 Averages | 109.6 | 108.2 | 109.0 | 108.9 | ||
Big Ten Conference | ||||||
East Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | BTen | Overall |
Michigan | 130.0 | 128.8 | 130.7 | 129.8 | 7-0 | 9-1 |
Ohio St. | 123.2 | 121.3 | 123.2 | 122.6 | 6-1 | 9-1 |
Penn St. | 118.3 | 115.7 | 118.1 | 117.4 | 4-3 | 7-3 |
Michigan St. | 116.6 | 114.5 | 116.1 | 115.8 | 5-3 | 6-4 |
Maryland | 103.7 | 102.3 | 102.8 | 102.9 | 3-4 | 5-5 |
Indiana | 100.2 | 99.1 | 100.0 | 99.8 | 2-5 | 5-5 |
Rutgers | 87.7 | 86.7 | 86.3 | 86.9 | 0-7 | 1-9 |
West Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | BTen | Overall |
Iowa | 115.5 | 113.6 | 115.1 | 114.7 | 3-4 | 6-4 |
Northwestern | 111.7 | 110.1 | 111.7 | 111.2 | 6-1 | 6-4 |
Wisconsin | 112.1 | 109.5 | 111.2 | 110.9 | 4-3 | 6-4 |
Purdue | 110.0 | 108.4 | 109.8 | 109.4 | 4-3 | 5-5 |
Nebraska | 102.6 | 101.4 | 101.7 | 101.9 | 2-5 | 3-7 |
Minnesota | 100.4 | 99.1 | 99.7 | 99.7 | 2-5 | 5-5 |
Illinois | 92.0 | 91.4 | 90.7 | 91.4 | 2-5 | 4-6 |
Big Ten Averages | 108.9 | 107.3 | 108.4 | 108.2 | ||
Conference USA | ||||||
East Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | CUSA | Overall |
Florida Atlantic | 97.0 | 98.2 | 97.5 | 97.6 | 3-3 | 5-5 |
Marshall | 94.2 | 96.8 | 95.3 | 95.5 | 4-2 | 6-3 |
Middle Tennessee | 93.4 | 95.3 | 94.4 | 94.4 | 6-1 | 7-3 |
Florida Int’l. | 89.7 | 93.4 | 90.4 | 91.2 | 5-1 | 7-3 |
Old Dominion | 82.2 | 85.4 | 82.1 | 83.3 | 2-5 | 3-7 |
Charlotte | 79.1 | 81.5 | 79.9 | 80.2 | 3-3 | 4-6 |
W. Kentucky | 79.1 | 81.9 | 79.5 | 80.2 | 0-6 | 1-9 |
West Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | CUSA | Overall |
U A B | 98.3 | 101.0 | 99.3 | 99.6 | 7-0 | 9-1 |
N. Texas | 96.9 | 99.2 | 97.1 | 97.7 | 3-3 | 7-3 |
Louisiana Tech | 91.8 | 93.8 | 92.5 | 92.7 | 5-1 | 7-3 |
Southern Miss. | 85.6 | 88.7 | 86.0 | 86.8 | 2-4 | 3-6 |
U T E P | 73.1 | 76.2 | 73.1 | 74.1 | 1-5 | 1-9 |
U T S A | 72.4 | 76.2 | 72.6 | 73.8 | 2-4 | 3-7 |
Rice | 67.3 | 70.0 | 66.3 | 67.9 | 0-7 | 1-10 |
CUSA Averages | 85.7 | 88.4 | 86.2 | 86.8 | ||
FBS Independents | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | Conf. | Overall |
Notre Dame | 125.2 | 122.7 | 124.3 | 124.0 | x | 10-0 |
Army | 103.3 | 104.0 | 103.5 | 103.6 | x | 8-2 |
BYU | 100.4 | 101.0 | 101.1 | 100.8 | x | 5-5 |
Liberty | 82.0 | 81.5 | 82.4 | 82.0 | x | 4-5 |
Massachusetts | 80.2 | 81.6 | 80.5 | 80.8 | x | 4-7 |
N. Mexico St. | 72.3 | 74.1 | 72.2 | 72.9 | x | 3-7 |
Indep. Averages | 93.9 | 94.1 | 94.0 | 94.0 | ||
Mid-American Conference | ||||||
East Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | MAC | Overall |
Buffalo | 100.5 | 102.5 | 101.8 | 101.6 | 6-0 | 9-1 |
Ohio U | 99.5 | 100.7 | 100.4 | 100.2 | 4-2 | 6-4 |
Miami (O) | 94.4 | 96.2 | 96.6 | 95.7 | 4-2 | 4-6 |
Akron | 87.9 | 88.9 | 87.6 | 88.2 | 2-4 | 4-5 |
Bowling Green | 80.1 | 80.7 | 80.1 | 80.3 | 1-5 | 2-8 |
Kent St. | 78.9 | 80.0 | 78.9 | 79.3 | 1-5 | 2-8 |
West Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | MAC | Overall |
Northern Illinois | 98.6 | 99.6 | 99.0 | 99.1 | 6-0 | 7-3 |
Toledo | 97.4 | 98.7 | 97.2 | 97.8 | 3-3 | 5-5 |
Eastern Michigan | 95.2 | 96.7 | 95.7 | 95.9 | 4-3 | 6-5 |
Western Michigan | 88.7 | 90.3 | 89.7 | 89.6 | 4-2 | 6-4 |
Central Michigan | 80.3 | 82.4 | 80.5 | 81.1 | 0-7 | 1-10 |
Ball St. | 79.9 | 81.9 | 79.3 | 80.4 | 2-4 | 3-7 |
MAC Averages | 90.1 | 91.5 | 90.6 | 90.7 | ||
Mountain West Conference | ||||||
Mountain Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | MWC | Overall |
Utah St. | 111.2 | 112.7 | 112.5 | 112.1 | 6-0 | 9-1 |
Boise St. | 110.3 | 109.8 | 110.4 | 110.2 | 5-1 | 8-2 |
Air Force | 96.3 | 97.1 | 97.0 | 96.8 | 2-4 | 4-6 |
Wyoming | 95.0 | 95.1 | 94.6 | 94.9 | 2-4 | 4-6 |
New Mexico | 84.7 | 85.8 | 84.2 | 84.9 | 1-5 | 3-7 |
Colorado St. | 82.0 | 82.6 | 81.5 | 82.0 | 2-4 | 3-7 |
West Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | MWC | Overall |
Fresno St. | 113.6 | 113.1 | 114.0 | 113.6 | 5-1 | 8-2 |
Nevada | 96.6 | 96.8 | 97.0 | 96.8 | 4-2 | 6-4 |
San Diego St. | 96.5 | 96.5 | 96.8 | 96.6 | 4-2 | 7-3 |
U N L V | 81.9 | 82.8 | 82.1 | 82.3 | 1-5 | 3-7 |
Hawaii | 80.2 | 81.8 | 79.1 | 80.4 | 3-3 | 6-5 |
San Jose St. | 78.7 | 79.6 | 77.5 | 78.6 | 1-5 | 1-9 |
MWC Averages | 93.9 | 94.5 | 93.9 | 94.1 | ||
Pac-12 Conference | ||||||
North Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | P12 | Overall |
Washington | 121.3 | 119.2 | 121.9 | 120.8 | 5-2 | 7-3 |
Stanford | 114.6 | 112.3 | 114.8 | 113.9 | 4-3 | 6-4 |
Washington St. | 114.2 | 113.2 | 114.0 | 113.8 | 6-1 | 9-1 |
Oregon | 109.1 | 108.9 | 109.7 | 109.2 | 3-4 | 6-4 |
California | 108.1 | 106.0 | 108.1 | 107.4 | 3-4 | 6-4 |
Oregon St. | 85.5 | 83.4 | 84.2 | 84.4 | 1-6 | 2-8 |
South Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | P12 | Overall |
Utah | 115.6 | 114.0 | 116.0 | 115.2 | 5-3 | 7-3 |
Arizona St. | 110.5 | 109.2 | 110.1 | 109.9 | 4-3 | 6-4 |
U S C | 108.0 | 106.4 | 107.2 | 107.2 | 4-4 | 5-5 |
Arizona | 104.1 | 102.7 | 104.4 | 103.7 | 4-3 | 5-5 |
Colorado | 99.4 | 99.6 | 99.7 | 99.6 | 2-5 | 5-5 |
U C L A | 99.1 | 98.6 | 97.1 | 98.2 | 2-5 | 2-8 |
Pac-12 Averages | 107.5 | 106.1 | 107.3 | 106.9 | ||
Southeastern Conference | ||||||
East Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | SEC | Overall |
Georgia | 129.0 | 126.5 | 130.2 | 128.5 | 7-1 | 9-1 |
Missouri | 118.3 | 116.9 | 119.3 | 118.1 | 2-4 | 6-4 |
Florida | 111.8 | 110.1 | 112.3 | 111.4 | 5-3 | 7-3 |
S. Carolina | 111.5 | 110.3 | 111.0 | 110.9 | 4-4 | 5-4 |
Kentucky | 110.7 | 109.4 | 110.6 | 110.2 | 5-3 | 7-3 |
Vanderbilt | 103.6 | 103.6 | 103.9 | 103.7 | 1-5 | 4-6 |
Tennessee | 102.3 | 102.7 | 101.9 | 102.3 | 2-4 | 5-5 |
West Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | SEC | Overall |
Alabama | 142.0 | 140.3 | 143.6 | 142.0 | 7-0 | 10-0 |
Mississippi St. | 120.4 | 118.5 | 121.4 | 120.1 | 2-4 | 6-4 |
L S U | 118.7 | 117.8 | 119.5 | 118.7 | 5-2 | 8-2 |
Auburn | 115.4 | 114.1 | 116.7 | 115.4 | 3-4 | 6-4 |
Texas A&M | 113.9 | 112.6 | 114.2 | 113.6 | 4-3 | 6-4 |
Ole Miss | 103.6 | 103.0 | 103.8 | 103.4 | 1-5 | 5-5 |
Arkansas | 100.1 | 97.8 | 99.2 | 99.0 | 0-6 | 2-8 |
SEC Averages | 114.4 | 113.1 | 114.8 | 114.1 | ||
Sunbelt Conference | ||||||
East Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | SBC | Overall |
Appalachian St. | 98.5 | 100.4 | 100.1 | 99.6 | 5-1 | 7-2 |
Troy | 92.6 | 94.0 | 94.3 | 93.6 | 6-0 | 8-2 |
Georgia Southern | 88.8 | 90.4 | 89.2 | 89.5 | 4-2 | 7-3 |
Coastal Carolina | 77.2 | 79.7 | 77.9 | 78.3 | 2-4 | 5-5 |
Georgia St. | 76.3 | 78.1 | 76.4 | 76.9 | 1-5 | 2-8 |
West Division | ||||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average | SBC | Overall |
Arkansas St. | 89.4 | 90.9 | 90.9 | 90.4 | 3-3 | 6-4 |
UL-Monroe | 87.0 | 87.7 | 87.8 | 87.5 | 4-2 | 6-4 |
Louisiana | 82.8 | 85.1 | 84.3 | 84.1 | 3-3 | 5-5 |
Texas State | 73.0 | 75.6 | 73.2 | 73.9 | 1-5 | 3-7 |
South Alabama | 73.2 | 74.8 | 73.3 | 73.8 | 1-5 | 2-8 |
Sun Belt Averages | 83.9 | 85.7 | 84.7 | 84.8 |
PiRate Ratings of the Conferences
PiRate Ratings By Conference | |||||
# | League | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
1 | SEC | 114.4 | 113.1 | 114.8 | 114.1 |
2 | ACC | 109.9 | 108.7 | 109.3 | 109.3 |
3 | B12 | 109.6 | 108.2 | 109.0 | 108.9 |
4 | BTEN | 108.9 | 107.3 | 108.4 | 108.2 |
5 | PAC12 | 107.5 | 106.1 | 107.3 | 106.9 |
6 | AAC | 95.0 | 95.6 | 95.0 | 95.2 |
7 | MWC | 93.9 | 94.5 | 93.9 | 94.1 |
8 | IND | 93.9 | 94.1 | 94.0 | 94.0 |
9 | MAC | 90.1 | 91.5 | 90.6 | 90.7 |
10 | CUSA | 85.7 | 88.4 | 86.2 | 86.8 |
11 | SUN | 83.9 | 85.7 | 84.7 | 84.8 |
Top 5 Group of 5
- Central Florida
- Utah State
- Cincinnati
- UAB
- Army
Bowl and Playoff Projections
With two weeks remaining in the regular season plus a weekend of conference championship games, most of the conference races are getting quite interesting. The good news for the bowls this year is that there is now about a one in one hundred thousand chance that a team with a losing record will be needed. Actually, chances are maybe 98% that there will be bowl eligible teams that do not receive bowl bids, even some teams with seven and eight wins.
As we project the bowl and playoff bids today, we believe six bowl eligible teams will be left out of the bowl picture. There are already 64 bowl eligible teams with close to 20 more needing just one more win. Let’s take a look at each conference and show you where they stand today and where we think they will finish.
Group of 5 Conferences
American Athletic
Both division races have interesting key games this weekend. In the East, Central Florida hosts Cincinnati. If the Golden Knights win to remain undefeated, they will clinch the East Division title. However, if one-loss Cincinnati pulls off the win, and Temple beats South Florida, then there will be a three-way tie for first with one game to go. All three have very winnable final games, so at 7-1, there would be a tiebreaker involved, and Cincinnati would get the nod several layers down in the tie-breaking procedure.
Houston looked like a cinch to win the West Division until back-to-back losses to SMU and Temple knocked the Cougars into a three-way tie with SMU and surprising Tulane. Tulane and Houston square off in Houston this weekend, while SMU plays tough Memphis. This race will come down to the last weekend, and SMU has the advantage as of today.
Already Bowl Eligible: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Temple, South Florida, Houston, and Memphis
Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Tulane and SMU
Conference USA
This league will fall shy of the number of bowl eligible teams compared to last year, but there will still be seven conference teams available for the seven bowl tie-ins the league has this year.
The East Division is down to a three-team race between Florida International, Middle Tennessee, and Marshall. Middle currently leads FIU by a half-game in the standings, but the Blue Raiders close with a home game against the top team in the league in UAB. FIU beat Middle and holds the tie-breaker edge, but the Panthers must still beat Marshall.
There is a chance that the three contenders will all finish 6-2, if UAB beats Middle, and Marshall beats FIU. Should that happen, Middle Tennessee would win the tie-breaker well down the procedure list.
UAB has already clinched the West Division championship, but the Blazers have something more to play for. It is a long shot, but if UAB could pull off the big upset at Texas A&M,then win at Middle Tennessee, and then win the CUSA Championship Game, the Blazers could be in the mix for a Peach Bowl bid should Central Florida lose to somebody other than Cincinnati and both Utah State and Boise State lose another game. The Blazers would be 12-1 in this situation.
Already Bowl Eligible: Florida International, Middle Tennessee, Marshall, UAB, North Texas, and Louisiana Tech
Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Florida Atlantic
Independents
We don’t count Notre Dame in this section, because the Irish are classified with the Power Five conferences. Army is already bowl eligible and will definitely get an at-large bid to a bowl. BYU needs one more win, and the Cougars face a weak New Mexico State team this week, so they should get that win. They are also guaranteed an at-large bid to a bowl that ESPN sponsors.
Liberty will most likely finish 6-6, but the Flames are ineligible in their transition year in FBS. There is a loophole for Liberty to become bowl eligible if there are not enough bowl eligible teams, but as we said before, there will be most likely six bowl eligible teams more than needed this year.
Already Bowl Eligible: Army
Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: BYU (& Liberty in reserve)
Mid-American
The two MAC races are basically sewn up with two weeks to go. Buffalo has a two-game lead over Ohio U in the East, and even if the Bulls lose at Ohio this week, they would also have to lose against lowly Bowling Green next week, while Ohio then beats Akron. We don’t see Buffalo finishing 0-2, and the Bulls have a better chance to finish 2-0 and stay alive in the New Year’s 6 Bowl race.
Northern Illinois is in the same boat as Buffalo in the West Division race. The Huskies lead Western Michigan by two games, and even though NIU and WMU face off in the regular season finale, the only way that game will determine the division title is if NIU loses at home to Miami of Ohio this week and WMU wins at Ball St. Miami is trying to sneak into bowl eligibility and needs wins over NIU and Ball State, but we don’t see the Red Hawks competing with the Huskies this week.
Already Bowl Eligible: Buffalo, Ohio U, Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, and Western Michigan
Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Toledo
Mountain West
Both races are still undecided with two week to go. Boise State’s big win over Fresno State gave the Broncos a big boost, for if they win out against New Mexico in Albuquerque and Utah State on the Blue Field, then Boise takes the Mountain Division crown.
Utah State plays at Colorado State in a game that mean nothing toward the Mountain Division race, but it means everything if the Aggies want to sneak into the Fiesta Bowl as the Group of 5 representative. If USU beats CSU and then knocks off Boise in Boise, the Aggies would enter the MWC Championship Game needing a win and a UCF loss to earn the Fiesta Bowl bid.
In the West Division, Fresno State is still in control of the race, but the Bulldogs have been exposed with questionable offensive and defensive lines. San Diego State and Nevada are just one game back with two to go, and SDSU and Fresno play this weekend in Fresno. Should the Aztecs recover from a late swoon and pull off the upset, then there could be a three-way tie for first at 6-2. Fresno State would win the tie-breaker.
Already Bowl Eligible: Utah State, Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada, and San Diego State
Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Hawaii and Wyoming
Sun Belt
Technically, three teams are still alive in the East Division, as Troy is 6-0, Appalachian State is 5-1, and Georgia Southern is 4-2. However, Troy hosts a very weak Texas State team this week, and a Trojan win eliminates GSU. The regular season finale sends Troy to Appy State, and the winner of that game will win the division title.
The West Division race is also a three-team affair, but the three teams all have legitimate chances of capturing the flag. UL-Monroe leads Louisiana and Arkansas State by a game, but they conclude the regular season playing both contenders–Arkanasas State in Jonesboro and Louisiana in Monroe. Obviously, If ULM wins both games, they win the division title. If they lose one of the two games, then the team that beats them will win the division title if they also win their other game. Louisiana’s other game is a home game with South Alabama, while Arky State plays at Texas State. If both Arky State and Louisiana beat ULM, then Louisiana wins the division.
Already Bowl Eligible: Troy, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Monroe, and Arkansas St.
Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Coastal Carolina and Louisiana
Power 5 Conferences
Atlantic Coast
Can anybody in this league beat Clemson that still might play the Tigers this year? Duke and South Carolina are not likely candidates, so it figures that CU will enter the ACC Championship Game at 12-0. Who the Tigers will play is still a question with two weeks to go.
After losing to a North Carolina team that has not won another game this year, Pittsburgh did not look like a bowl eligible team at all. The Panthers were 2-3 with two lopsided losses (Penn State and Central Florida). A 3-9 record looked possible at that point, because the back end of the schedule looked brutal. After an upset of Syracuse and a near miss loss at Notre Dame, Pitt was still 3-4 and not looking like they would find three more wins on their schedule. Consecutive wins over Duke, Virginia, and Virginia Tech, have placed the Panthers into first place in the Coastal Division with two games to go. Both games are on the road but winnable against mediocre teams. The problem for the Panthers is that both Wake Forest and Miami are fighting for bowl eligibility, and it would not surprise us if one of the two knock the Panthers off their perch. Pittsburgh will still win the division if they split their final two games, but should the unthinkable happen, and they lose both games, then it throws this division race into a mad world.
Virginia would have a chance to win the division, but the Cavaliers play their final two games on the road against a fast-closing Georgia Tech, and a Virginia Tech team that might be 5-5 and needing a win to earn a bowl bid. Duke, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech all have three conference losses, but the chances that any of the three can win the division are quite remote. And, in the end, who really wants to get drubbed by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game?
Already Bowl Eligible: Clemson, Syracuse, Boston College, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Duke, and Georgia Tech
Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Miami
Big 12
This is another interesting race with four teams contending for the two Championship Game bids. Oklahoma (6-1) and West Virginia (6-1) control their own destiny, but since they still must play each other, at least one of these two teams might no longer control their destiny.
Iowa State (5-2) would sneak into the Big 12 Championship Game, should they beat Texas and Kansas State and Oklahoma beats West Virginia. Texas (5-2) would be the second team if the Longhorns beat Iowa State and Kansas and West Virginia beats Oklahoma.
Should West Virginia lose at Oklahoma State this week and then beat Oklahoma, then there could be a three-way tie at 7-2, with one of the teams eliminated. Should WVU, Oklahoma, and Texas finish tied in this scenario, Texas and Oklahoma would play for the Big 12 Championship. Should WVU, Oklahoma, and Iowa State finish tied in this scenario, then Iowa State and West Virginia would play for the title.
Already Bowl Eligible: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, and Iowa State
Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Baylor
Big Ten
The East race is down to the same two teams that have always competed for the Big Ten title. Michigan faces Ohio State in Columbus in two weeks, and the winner will face Northwestern for the Big Ten Championship.
Obviously, the Wolverines are playing for a lot more than just the league title. Wins over Indiana, Ohio State, and Northwestern will clinch a spot in the Playoffs. Ohio State has a minimal chance of making the playoffs by closing out with wins over Maryland, Michigan, and Northwestern. Northwestern can win the Rose Bowl bid by upsetting either team in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Already Bowl Eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Iowa
Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Indiana, Purdue, and Minnesota
Pac-12
The North Division race will be determined in the Palouse when the Washington Huskies visit Washington State for the Apple Cup. Stanford has been eliminated by virtue of losing to both Olympic State teams.
The South Division is still quite chaotic. Arizona State, Arizona, and Utah have three conference losses, while USC has four. Arizona State is the current tiebreaker leader by virtue of a win over Utah, while Utah drubbed Arizona and holds second place today. However, Arizona has not played Arizona State, and should the Wildcats beat the Sun Devils, and there is a multiple way tie at 5-4 with three or four teams, the possibilities are not endless, but they seem to appear that way. USC is not in the race, even if they finish in a first place tie. In the event of a tie at 5-4 between Arizona State, Arizona, USC, and Utah, the Utes win the tiebreaker. In another scenario, if Colorado beats Utah, Oregon beats Arizona State, and then Arizona State beats Arizona, then Arizona State wins the division at 5-4 no matter what USC does.
Already Bowl Eligible: Washington State, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, California, Utah, and Arizona State
Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: USC and Arizona
Southeastern
This is a race that is already determined. Alabama and Georgia will play in the SEC Championship Game no matter what they do the rest of the season. We expect they will both win out. Georgia finishes with two non-conference opponents. They can name the score with UMass, and they should be able to slow down the Georgia Tech option game and run over the Techsters to finish 11-1. Alabama could score 100 points this week against The Citadel if Nick Saban was Barry Switzer or Bill Yeoman, but we expect a possible 56-0 halftime score to lead to a 77-0 win at most. Then, Alabama should handle Auburn in Tuscaloosa to finish 12-0.
Georgia would have to win the SEC Championship to get into the Playoffs unless a lot of nearly impossible events leave a trail of two loss teams in the wake. If the Bulldogs upset the Tide, then most likely Georgia would move up to number two and Alabama would fall to number three, leaving Michigan in a bind.
Already Bowl Eligible: Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Auburn
Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: South Carolina and Tennessee
Here are this week’s playoff and bowl projections.
Bowl | Conferences | Team 1 | Team 2 | |
New Mexico | MWC | CUSA | Utah St. | Middle Tennessee |
Cure | AAC | SBC | Cincinnati | Troy |
Las Vegas | MWC | Pac-12 | Boise St. | USC |
Camellia | MAC | SBC | Buffalo | Appalachian St. |
New Orleans | CUSA | SBC | Louisiana Tech | UL-Monroe |
Boca Raton | AAC | CUSA | SMU | Florida Atlantic |
Frisco | AAC | At-Large | Memphis | [BYU] |
Gasparilla | AAC | CUSA | South Florida | Marshall |
Bahamas | MAC | CUSA | Toledo | Florida Int’l. |
Idaho Potato | MAC | MWC | Ohio U | Nevada |
Birmingham | AAC | SEC | Tulane | Missouri |
Armed Forces | AAC | Big 12 | Houston | [Army] |
Dollar General | MAC | SBC | Northern Illinois | Georgia Southern |
Hawaii | CUSA | MWC | UAB | Hawaii |
Heart of Dallas | Big Ten | CUSA | Indiana | North Texas |
Quick Lane | ACC | Big Ten | Boston College | Minnesota |
Cactus | Big 12 | Pac-12 | Texas Tech | Arizona St. |
Independence | ACC | SEC | Miami (Fla.) | [Arizona] |
Pinstripe | ACC | Big Ten | Pittsburgh | Wisconsin |
Texas | Big 12 | SEC | Oklahoma St. | Texas A&M |
Music City | ACC/Big Ten | SEC | North Carolina St. | Tennessee |
Camping World | ACC | Big 12 | Syracuse | Iowa St. |
Arizona | MWC | SBC | Fresno St. | Arkansas St. |
Alamo | Big 12 | Pac-12 | Texas | Washington |
Belk | ACC | SEC | Virginia | South Carolina |
Peach | At-large | At-large | West Virginia | LSU |
Military | AAC | ACC | Temple | Duke |
Sun | ACC | Pac-12 | Georgia Tech | California |
San Francisco | Big Ten | Pac-12 | Iowa | Oregon |
Liberty | Big 12 | SEC | Baylor | Mississippi St. |
Holiday | Big Ten | Pac-12 | Northwestern | Stanford |
Gator | ACC/Big Ten | SEC | Purdue | Auburn |
Outback | Big Ten | SEC | Michigan St. | Kentucky |
Fiesta | At-large | At-large | Central Florida | Utah |
Citrus | ACC/Big Ten | SEC | Penn St. | Florida |
Rose | Big Ten | Pac-12 | Ohio St. | Washington St. |
Sugar | Big 12 | SEC | Oklahoma | Georgia |
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections
FBS Playoff Projections
Cotton | Alabama | Michigan | ||
Orange | Clemson | Notre Dame | ||
Championship Game | Alabama | Clemson |