The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 11, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 12

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday November 13
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Ball St. Western Michigan -6.3 -6.0 -7.9

 

Wednesday November 14
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Ohio U Buffalo 2.1 1.2 1.5
Northern Illinois Miami (O) 7.1 6.5 5.4

 

Thursday November 15
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Kent St. Toledo -16.5 -16.7 -16.3
Houston Tulane 7.4 7.4 7.7
North Texas Florida Atlantic 2.4 3.4 2.2

 

Friday November 16
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
SMU Memphis -4.4 -6.0 -5.8
New Mexico Boise St. -23.1 -21.5 -23.7

 

Saturday November 17
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Michigan Indiana 32.8 32.7 33.6
Wake Forest Pittsburgh -2.5 -3.8 -4.1
Illinois Iowa -21.0 -19.7 -21.9
Purdue Wisconsin 0.9 1.9 1.6
Georgia Tech Virginia 11.6 10.6 12.2
Minnesota Northwestern -8.4 -8.0 -9.0
Clemson Duke 30.1 29.6 31.6
Rutgers Penn St. -28.1 -26.4 -29.3
Kansas St. Texas Tech -4.8 -4.7 -4.7
East Carolina Connecticut 12.7 12.1 13.2
Temple South Florida 15.3 14.1 16.7
Georgia Massachusetts 51.8 47.9 52.7
Coastal Carolina Georgia Southern -9.6 -8.7 -9.3
Tennessee Missouri -13.0 -11.1 -14.3
Kentucky Middle Tennessee 20.3 17.1 19.2
Maryland Ohio St. -16.4 -16.0 -17.4
Louisville North Carolina St. -17.1 -16.9 -17.7
Central Florida Cincinnati 15.6 14.0 15.1
Auburn Liberty 36.4 35.5 37.3
Charlotte Florida Int’l. -8.6 -9.9 -8.5
BYU New Mexico St. 31.1 29.9 31.9
Wyoming Air Force 1.2 0.5 0.1
Colorado Utah -13.2 -11.5 -13.3
Colorado St. Utah St. -26.3 -27.1 -28.0
Notre Dame Syracuse 16.2 14.9 15.9
Appalachian St. Georgia St. 24.7 24.7 26.1
Marshall UTSA 24.9 23.6 25.7
California Stanford -5.0 -4.8 -5.2
Oregon Arizona St. 1.6 2.8 2.5
Washington St. Arizona 13.2 13.5 12.6
San Jose St. Nevada -15.4 -14.7 -17.0
Baylor TCU -1.4 -1.5 0.3
Navy Tulsa 1.1 3.5 0.8
Texas A&M UAB 18.6 14.6 17.9
Mississippi St. Arkansas 23.4 23.7 25.2
Oklahoma St. West Virginia -5.4 -6.2 -4.9
Southern Miss. Louisiana Tech -4.1 -3.0 -4.4
Akron Bowling Green 9.8 10.2 9.5
LSU Rice 54.4 50.8 56.2
Vanderbilt Ole Miss 2.5 3.2 2.6
Florida St. Boston College -8.5 -7.6 -9.4
Oklahoma Kansas 27.7 27.9 29.4
Washington Oregon St. 38.8 38.8 40.7
Arkansas St. UL-Monroe 4.8 5.6 5.7
Troy Texas St. 22.1 20.9 23.6
Louisiana South Alabama 12.1 12.8 13.4
Virginia Tech Miami (Fla.) -3.6 -3.2 -3.5
Western Kentucky UTEP 8.4 8.3 9.0
Nebraska Michigan St. -11.1 -10.1 -11.5
Texas Iowa St. 2.2 2.2 1.8
UCLA USC -7.4 -6.3 -8.6
Fresno St. San Diego St. 20.1 19.7 20.3
Hawaii UNLV 1.8 2.5 0.5

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Florida Idaho 33.0
Alabama Citadel 58.2
Army Colgate 21.2
Old Dominion VMI 20.9
North Carolina Western Carolina 25.6
South Carolina Chattanooga 36.0

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0
2 Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7
3 Michigan 130.0 128.8 130.7 129.8
4 Georgia 129.0 126.5 130.2 128.5
5 Notre Dame 125.2 122.7 124.3 124.0
6 Ohio St. 123.2 121.3 123.2 122.6
7 Oklahoma 122.1 120.8 122.2 121.7
8 Washington 121.3 119.2 121.9 120.8
9 Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1
10 L S U 118.7 117.8 119.5 118.7
11 Missouri 118.3 116.9 119.3 118.1
12 West Virginia 118.2 117.3 117.6 117.7
13 Penn St. 118.3 115.7 118.1 117.4
14 Michigan St. 116.6 114.5 116.1 115.8
15 Boston College 116.3 114.1 116.1 115.5
16 Auburn 115.4 114.1 116.7 115.4
17 Utah 115.6 114.0 116.0 115.2
18 Iowa 115.5 113.6 115.1 114.7
19 Iowa State 114.6 113.1 114.4 114.0
20 Georgia Tech 114.3 113.3 114.1 113.9
21 Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9
22 Central Florida 113.7 113.9 113.8 113.8
23 Washington St. 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8
24 Fresno St. 113.6 113.1 114.0 113.6
25 Texas A&M 113.9 112.6 114.2 113.6
26 Texas 113.8 112.3 113.3 113.1
27 Utah St. 111.2 112.7 112.5 112.1
28 Miami 112.8 111.1 111.9 112.0
29 Florida 111.8 110.1 112.3 111.4
30 Syracuse 111.9 110.8 111.4 111.4
31 Duke 112.2 110.2 111.4 111.3
32 Northwestern 111.7 110.1 111.7 111.2
33 Wisconsin 112.1 109.5 111.2 110.9
34 S. Carolina 111.5 110.3 111.0 110.9
35 Kentucky 110.7 109.4 110.6 110.2
36 Boise St. 110.3 109.8 110.4 110.2
37 N. Carolina St. 110.5 109.7 109.9 110.0
38 Arizona St. 110.5 109.2 110.1 109.9
39 Texas Tech 110.5 109.1 109.5 109.7
40 Purdue 110.0 108.4 109.8 109.4
41 Oregon 109.1 108.9 109.7 109.2
42 Oklahoma St. 109.8 108.1 109.7 109.2
43 Pittsburgh 109.1 108.6 108.9 108.9
44 California 108.1 106.0 108.1 107.4
45 U S C 108.0 106.4 107.2 107.2
46 Virginia Tech 106.2 104.9 105.4 105.5
47 Virginia 105.7 105.8 104.9 105.5
48 Temple 104.1 104.3 105.0 104.5
49 T C U 105.4 103.9 103.6 104.3
50 Florida St. 104.8 103.6 103.8 104.0
51 Vanderbilt 103.6 103.6 103.9 103.7
52 Arizona 104.1 102.7 104.4 103.7
53 Army 103.3 104.0 103.5 103.6
54 Ole Miss 103.6 103.0 103.8 103.4
55 Memphis 102.3 103.6 103.1 103.0
56 Wake Forest 104.2 102.3 102.4 102.9
57 Maryland 103.7 102.3 102.8 102.9
58 Tennessee 102.3 102.7 101.9 102.3
59 Kansas St. 102.8 101.4 101.7 102.0
60 Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9
61 Nebraska 102.6 101.4 101.7 101.9
62 Buffalo 100.5 102.5 101.8 101.6
63 Baylor 102.0 100.4 101.8 101.4
64 BYU 100.4 101.0 101.1 100.8
65 Houston 100.2 100.7 100.4 100.4
66 Ohio U 99.5 100.7 100.4 100.2
67 N. Carolina 100.2 99.4 100.0 99.9
68 Indiana 100.2 99.1 100.0 99.8
69 Minnesota 100.4 99.1 99.7 99.7
70 Appalachian St. 98.5 100.4 100.1 99.6
71 Colorado 99.4 99.6 99.7 99.6
72 U A B 98.3 101.0 99.3 99.6
73 Northern Illinois 98.6 99.6 99.0 99.1
74 Arkansas 100.1 97.8 99.2 99.0
75 U C L A 99.1 98.6 97.1 98.2
76 Toledo 97.4 98.7 97.2 97.8
77 N. Texas 96.9 99.2 97.1 97.7
78 Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6
79 Nevada 96.6 96.8 97.0 96.8
80 Air Force 96.3 97.1 97.0 96.8
81 San Diego St. 96.5 96.5 96.8 96.6
82 Kansas 97.4 95.9 95.8 96.4
83 Tulane 95.8 96.3 95.7 95.9
84 Eastern Michigan 95.2 96.7 95.7 95.9
85 Miami (O) 94.4 96.2 96.6 95.7
86 Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5
87 Wyoming 95.0 95.1 94.6 94.9
88 SMU 95.0 94.6 94.3 94.6
89 Middle Tennessee 93.4 95.3 94.4 94.4
90 Troy 92.6 94.0 94.3 93.6
91 Louisiana Tech 91.8 93.8 92.5 92.7
92 South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6
93 Illinois 92.0 91.4 90.7 91.4
94 Florida Int’l. 89.7 93.4 90.4 91.2
95 Arkansas St. 89.4 90.9 90.9 90.4
96 Louisville 90.9 90.3 89.7 90.3
97 Tulsa 90.0 89.6 90.0 89.9
98 Western Michigan 88.7 90.3 89.7 89.6
99 Georgia Southern 88.8 90.4 89.2 89.5
100 Navy 88.1 90.0 87.8 88.7
101 Akron 87.9 88.9 87.6 88.2
102 UL-Monroe 87.0 87.7 87.8 87.5
103 Rutgers 87.7 86.7 86.3 86.9
104 Southern Miss. 85.6 88.7 86.0 86.8
105 New Mexico 84.7 85.8 84.2 84.9
106 Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4
107 Louisiana 82.8 85.1 84.3 84.1
108 East Carolina 83.8 83.7 83.5 83.7
109 Old Dominion 82.2 85.4 82.1 83.3
110 U N L V 81.9 82.8 82.1 82.3
111 Colorado St. 82.0 82.6 81.5 82.0
112 Liberty 82.0 81.5 82.4 82.0
113 Central Michigan 80.3 82.4 80.5 81.1
114 Massachusetts 80.2 81.6 80.5 80.8
115 Hawaii 80.2 81.8 79.1 80.4
116 Ball St. 79.9 81.9 79.3 80.4
117 Bowling Green 80.1 80.7 80.1 80.3
118 W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2
119 Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2
120 Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.9 79.3
121 San Jose St. 78.7 79.6 77.5 78.6
122 Coastal Carolina 77.2 79.7 77.9 78.3
123 Georgia St. 76.3 78.1 76.4 76.9
124 U T E P 73.1 76.2 73.1 74.1
125 Connecticut 74.1 74.6 73.3 74.0
126 Texas State 73.0 75.6 73.2 73.9
127 South Alabama 73.2 74.8 73.3 73.8
128 U T S A 72.4 76.2 72.6 73.8
129 N. Mexico St. 72.3 74.1 72.2 72.9
130 Rice 67.3 70.0 66.3 67.9

 

PiRate Ratings by Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 113.7 113.9 113.8 113.8 6-0 9-0
Temple 104.1 104.3 105.0 104.5 5-1 6-4
Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9 5-1 9-1
South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6 3-3 7-3
East Carolina 83.8 83.7 83.5 83.7 0-6 2-7
Connecticut 74.1 74.6 73.3 74.0 0-6 1-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 102.3 103.6 103.1 103.0 3-3 6-4
Houston 100.2 100.7 100.4 100.4 4-2 7-3
Tulane 95.8 96.3 95.7 95.9 4-2 5-5
SMU 95.0 94.6 94.3 94.6 4-2 5-5
Tulsa 90.0 89.6 90.0 89.9 1-5 2-8
Navy 88.1 90.0 87.8 88.7 1-5 2-8
AAC Averages 95.0 95.6 95.0 95.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7 7-0 10-0
Boston College 116.3 114.1 116.1 115.5 4-2 7-3
Syracuse 111.9 110.8 111.4 111.4 5-2 8-2
N. Carolina St. 110.5 109.7 109.9 110.0 3-3 6-3
Florida St. 104.8 103.6 103.8 104.0 2-5 4-6
Wake Forest 104.2 102.3 102.4 102.9 2-4 5-5
Louisville 90.9 90.3 89.7 90.3 0-7 2-8
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Georgia Tech 114.3 113.3 114.1 113.9 4-3 6-4
Miami 112.8 111.1 111.9 112.0 2-4 5-5
Duke 112.2 110.2 111.4 111.3 3-3 7-3
Pittsburgh 109.1 108.6 108.9 108.9 5-1 6-4
Virginia Tech 106.2 104.9 105.4 105.5 3-3 4-5
Virginia 105.7 105.8 104.9 105.5 4-2 7-3
N. Carolina 100.2 99.4 100.0 99.9 1-6 1-8
ACC Averages 109.9 108.7 109.3 109.3
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 122.1 120.8 122.2 121.7 6-1 9-1
West Virginia 118.2 117.3 117.6 117.7 6-1 8-1
Iowa State 114.6 113.1 114.4 114.0 5-2 6-3
Texas 113.8 112.3 113.3 113.1 5-2 7-3
Texas Tech 110.5 109.1 109.5 109.7 3-4 5-5
Oklahoma St. 109.8 108.1 109.7 109.2 2-5 5-5
T C U 105.4 103.9 103.6 104.3 2-5 4-6
Kansas St. 102.8 101.4 101.7 102.0 2-5 4-6
Baylor 102.0 100.4 101.8 101.4 3-4 5-5
Kansas 97.4 95.9 95.8 96.4 1-6 3-7
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 130.0 128.8 130.7 129.8 7-0 9-1
Ohio St. 123.2 121.3 123.2 122.6 6-1 9-1
Penn St. 118.3 115.7 118.1 117.4 4-3 7-3
Michigan St. 116.6 114.5 116.1 115.8 5-3 6-4
Maryland 103.7 102.3 102.8 102.9 3-4 5-5
Indiana 100.2 99.1 100.0 99.8 2-5 5-5
Rutgers 87.7 86.7 86.3 86.9 0-7 1-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 115.5 113.6 115.1 114.7 3-4 6-4
Northwestern 111.7 110.1 111.7 111.2 6-1 6-4
Wisconsin 112.1 109.5 111.2 110.9 4-3 6-4
Purdue 110.0 108.4 109.8 109.4 4-3 5-5
Nebraska 102.6 101.4 101.7 101.9 2-5 3-7
Minnesota 100.4 99.1 99.7 99.7 2-5 5-5
Illinois 92.0 91.4 90.7 91.4 2-5 4-6
Big Ten Averages 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6 3-3 5-5
Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5 4-2 6-3
Middle Tennessee 93.4 95.3 94.4 94.4 6-1 7-3
Florida Int’l. 89.7 93.4 90.4 91.2 5-1 7-3
Old Dominion 82.2 85.4 82.1 83.3 2-5 3-7
Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2 3-3 4-6
W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2 0-6 1-9
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 98.3 101.0 99.3 99.6 7-0 9-1
N. Texas 96.9 99.2 97.1 97.7 3-3 7-3
Louisiana Tech 91.8 93.8 92.5 92.7 5-1 7-3
Southern Miss. 85.6 88.7 86.0 86.8 2-4 3-6
U T E P 73.1 76.2 73.1 74.1 1-5 1-9
U T S A 72.4 76.2 72.6 73.8 2-4 3-7
Rice 67.3 70.0 66.3 67.9 0-7 1-10
CUSA Averages 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 125.2 122.7 124.3 124.0 x 10-0
Army 103.3 104.0 103.5 103.6 x 8-2
BYU 100.4 101.0 101.1 100.8 x 5-5
Liberty 82.0 81.5 82.4 82.0 x 4-5
Massachusetts 80.2 81.6 80.5 80.8 x 4-7
N. Mexico St. 72.3 74.1 72.2 72.9 x 3-7
Indep. Averages 93.9 94.1 94.0 94.0
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Buffalo 100.5 102.5 101.8 101.6 6-0 9-1
Ohio U 99.5 100.7 100.4 100.2 4-2 6-4
Miami (O) 94.4 96.2 96.6 95.7 4-2 4-6
Akron 87.9 88.9 87.6 88.2 2-4 4-5
Bowling Green 80.1 80.7 80.1 80.3 1-5 2-8
Kent St. 78.9 80.0 78.9 79.3 1-5 2-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Northern Illinois 98.6 99.6 99.0 99.1 6-0 7-3
Toledo 97.4 98.7 97.2 97.8 3-3 5-5
Eastern Michigan 95.2 96.7 95.7 95.9 4-3 6-5
Western Michigan 88.7 90.3 89.7 89.6 4-2 6-4
Central Michigan 80.3 82.4 80.5 81.1 0-7 1-10
Ball St. 79.9 81.9 79.3 80.4 2-4 3-7
MAC Averages 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 111.2 112.7 112.5 112.1 6-0 9-1
Boise St. 110.3 109.8 110.4 110.2 5-1 8-2
Air Force 96.3 97.1 97.0 96.8 2-4 4-6
Wyoming 95.0 95.1 94.6 94.9 2-4 4-6
New Mexico 84.7 85.8 84.2 84.9 1-5 3-7
Colorado St. 82.0 82.6 81.5 82.0 2-4 3-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 113.6 113.1 114.0 113.6 5-1 8-2
Nevada 96.6 96.8 97.0 96.8 4-2 6-4
San Diego St. 96.5 96.5 96.8 96.6 4-2 7-3
U N L V 81.9 82.8 82.1 82.3 1-5 3-7
Hawaii 80.2 81.8 79.1 80.4 3-3 6-5
San Jose St. 78.7 79.6 77.5 78.6 1-5 1-9
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 121.3 119.2 121.9 120.8 5-2 7-3
Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9 4-3 6-4
Washington St. 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8 6-1 9-1
Oregon 109.1 108.9 109.7 109.2 3-4 6-4
California 108.1 106.0 108.1 107.4 3-4 6-4
Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4 1-6 2-8
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 115.6 114.0 116.0 115.2 5-3 7-3
Arizona St. 110.5 109.2 110.1 109.9 4-3 6-4
U S C 108.0 106.4 107.2 107.2 4-4 5-5
Arizona 104.1 102.7 104.4 103.7 4-3 5-5
Colorado 99.4 99.6 99.7 99.6 2-5 5-5
U C L A 99.1 98.6 97.1 98.2 2-5 2-8
Pac-12 Averages 107.5 106.1 107.3 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 129.0 126.5 130.2 128.5 7-1 9-1
Missouri 118.3 116.9 119.3 118.1 2-4 6-4
Florida 111.8 110.1 112.3 111.4 5-3 7-3
S. Carolina 111.5 110.3 111.0 110.9 4-4 5-4
Kentucky 110.7 109.4 110.6 110.2 5-3 7-3
Vanderbilt 103.6 103.6 103.9 103.7 1-5 4-6
Tennessee 102.3 102.7 101.9 102.3 2-4 5-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0 7-0 10-0
Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1 2-4 6-4
L S U 118.7 117.8 119.5 118.7 5-2 8-2
Auburn 115.4 114.1 116.7 115.4 3-4 6-4
Texas A&M 113.9 112.6 114.2 113.6 4-3 6-4
Ole Miss 103.6 103.0 103.8 103.4 1-5 5-5
Arkansas 100.1 97.8 99.2 99.0 0-6 2-8
SEC Averages 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 98.5 100.4 100.1 99.6 5-1 7-2
Troy 92.6 94.0 94.3 93.6 6-0 8-2
Georgia Southern 88.8 90.4 89.2 89.5 4-2 7-3
Coastal Carolina 77.2 79.7 77.9 78.3 2-4 5-5
Georgia St. 76.3 78.1 76.4 76.9 1-5 2-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 89.4 90.9 90.9 90.4 3-3 6-4
UL-Monroe 87.0 87.7 87.8 87.5 4-2 6-4
Louisiana 82.8 85.1 84.3 84.1 3-3 5-5
Texas State 73.0 75.6 73.2 73.9 1-5 3-7
South Alabama 73.2 74.8 73.3 73.8 1-5 2-8
Sun Belt Averages 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

 

PiRate Ratings of the Conferences

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
2 ACC 109.9 108.7 109.3 109.3
3 B12 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
4 BTEN 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
5 PAC12 107.5 106.1 107.3 106.9
6 AAC 95.0 95.6 95.0 95.2
7 MWC 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
8 IND 93.9 94.1 94.0 94.0
9 MAC 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
10 CUSA 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.9 85.7 84.7 84.8

 

Top 5 Group of 5

  1. Central Florida
  2. Utah State
  3. Cincinnati
  4. UAB
  5. Army

 

Bowl and Playoff Projections

With two weeks remaining in the regular season plus a weekend of conference championship games, most of the conference races are getting quite interesting. The good news for the bowls this year is that there is now about a one in one hundred thousand chance that a team with a losing record will be needed. Actually, chances are maybe 98% that there will be bowl eligible teams that do not receive bowl bids, even some teams with seven and eight wins.

As we project the bowl and playoff bids today, we believe six bowl eligible teams will be left out of the bowl picture. There are already 64 bowl eligible teams with close to 20 more needing just one more win. Let’s take a look at each conference and show you where they stand today and where we think they will finish.

Group of 5 Conferences

American Athletic
Both division races have interesting key games this weekend. In the East, Central Florida hosts Cincinnati. If the Golden Knights win to remain undefeated, they will clinch the East Division title. However, if one-loss Cincinnati pulls off the win, and Temple beats South Florida, then there will be a three-way tie for first with one game to go. All three have very winnable final games, so at 7-1, there would be a tiebreaker involved, and Cincinnati would get the nod several layers down in the tie-breaking procedure.

Houston looked like a cinch to win the West Division until back-to-back losses to SMU and Temple knocked the Cougars into a three-way tie with SMU and surprising Tulane. Tulane and Houston square off in Houston this weekend, while SMU plays tough Memphis. This race will come down to the last weekend, and SMU has the advantage as of today.

Already Bowl Eligible: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Temple, South Florida, Houston, and Memphis

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Tulane and SMU

 

Conference USA
This league will fall shy of the number of bowl eligible teams compared to last year, but there will still be seven conference teams available for the seven bowl tie-ins the league has this year.

The East Division is down to a three-team race between Florida International, Middle Tennessee, and Marshall. Middle currently leads FIU by a half-game in the standings, but the Blue Raiders close with a home game against the top team in the league in UAB. FIU beat Middle and holds the tie-breaker edge, but the Panthers must still beat Marshall.

There is a chance that the three contenders will all finish 6-2, if UAB beats Middle, and Marshall beats FIU. Should that happen, Middle Tennessee would win the tie-breaker well down the procedure list.

UAB has already clinched the West Division championship, but the Blazers have something more to play for. It is a long shot, but if UAB could pull off the big upset at Texas A&M,then win at Middle Tennessee, and then win the CUSA Championship Game, the Blazers could be in the mix for a Peach Bowl bid should Central Florida lose to somebody other than Cincinnati and both Utah State and Boise State lose another game. The Blazers would be 12-1 in this situation.

Already Bowl Eligible: Florida International, Middle Tennessee, Marshall, UAB, North Texas, and Louisiana Tech

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Florida Atlantic
Independents
We don’t count Notre Dame in this section, because the Irish are classified with the Power Five conferences. Army is already bowl eligible and will definitely get an at-large bid to a bowl. BYU needs one more win, and the Cougars face a weak New Mexico State team this week, so they should get that win. They are also guaranteed an at-large bid to a bowl that ESPN sponsors.

Liberty will most likely finish 6-6, but the Flames are ineligible in their transition year in FBS. There is a loophole for Liberty to become bowl eligible if there are not enough bowl eligible teams, but as we said before, there will be most likely six bowl eligible teams more than needed this year.

Already Bowl Eligible: Army

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: BYU (& Liberty in reserve)

 

Mid-American
The two MAC races are basically sewn up with two weeks to go. Buffalo has a two-game lead over Ohio U in the East, and even if the Bulls lose at Ohio this week, they would also have to lose against lowly Bowling Green next week, while Ohio then beats Akron. We don’t see Buffalo finishing 0-2, and the Bulls have a better chance to finish 2-0 and stay alive in the New Year’s 6 Bowl race.

Northern Illinois is in the same boat as Buffalo in the West Division race. The Huskies lead Western Michigan by two games, and even though NIU and WMU face off in the regular season finale, the only way that game will determine the division title is if NIU loses at home to Miami of Ohio this week and WMU wins at Ball St. Miami is trying to sneak into bowl eligibility and needs wins over NIU and Ball State, but we don’t see the Red Hawks competing with the Huskies this week.

Already Bowl Eligible: Buffalo, Ohio U, Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, and Western Michigan
Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Toledo

 

Mountain West
Both races are still undecided with two week to go. Boise State’s big win over Fresno State gave the Broncos a big boost, for if they win out against New Mexico in Albuquerque and Utah State on the Blue Field, then Boise takes the Mountain Division crown.
Utah State plays at Colorado State in a game that mean nothing toward the Mountain Division race, but it means everything if the Aggies want to sneak into the Fiesta Bowl as the Group of 5 representative. If USU beats CSU and then knocks off Boise in Boise, the Aggies would enter the MWC Championship Game needing a win and a UCF loss to earn the Fiesta Bowl bid.

In the West Division, Fresno State is still in control of the race, but the Bulldogs have been exposed with questionable offensive and defensive lines. San Diego State and Nevada are just one game back with two to go, and SDSU and Fresno play this weekend in Fresno. Should the Aztecs recover from a late swoon and pull off the upset, then there could be a three-way tie for first at 6-2. Fresno State would win the tie-breaker.

Already Bowl Eligible: Utah State, Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada, and San Diego State

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Hawaii and Wyoming

 

Sun Belt
Technically, three teams are still alive in the East Division, as Troy is 6-0, Appalachian State is 5-1, and Georgia Southern is 4-2. However, Troy hosts a very weak Texas State team this week, and a Trojan win eliminates GSU. The regular season finale sends Troy to Appy State, and the winner of that game will win the division title.

The West Division race is also a three-team affair, but the three teams all have legitimate chances of capturing the flag. UL-Monroe leads Louisiana and Arkansas State by a game, but they conclude the regular season playing both contenders–Arkanasas State in Jonesboro and Louisiana in Monroe. Obviously, If ULM wins both games, they win the division title. If they lose one of the two games, then the team that beats them will win the division title if they also win their other game. Louisiana’s other game is a home game with South Alabama, while Arky State plays at Texas State. If both Arky State and Louisiana beat ULM, then Louisiana wins the division.

Already Bowl Eligible: Troy, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Louisiana-Monroe, and Arkansas St.

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Coastal Carolina and Louisiana

 

Power 5 Conferences

Atlantic Coast
Can anybody in this league beat Clemson that still might play the Tigers this year? Duke and South Carolina are not likely candidates, so it figures that CU will enter the ACC Championship Game at 12-0. Who the Tigers will play is still a question with two weeks to go.

After losing to a North Carolina team that has not won another game this year, Pittsburgh did not look like a bowl eligible team at all. The Panthers were 2-3 with two lopsided losses (Penn State and Central Florida). A 3-9 record looked possible at that point, because the back end of the schedule looked brutal. After an upset of Syracuse and a near miss loss at Notre Dame, Pitt was still 3-4 and not looking like they would find three more wins on their schedule. Consecutive wins over Duke, Virginia, and Virginia Tech, have placed the Panthers into first place in the Coastal Division with two games to go. Both games are on the road but winnable against mediocre teams. The problem for the Panthers is that both Wake Forest and Miami are fighting for bowl eligibility, and it would not surprise us if one of the two knock the Panthers off their perch. Pittsburgh will still win the division if they split their final two games, but should the unthinkable happen, and they lose both games, then it throws this division race into a mad world.
Virginia would have a chance to win the division, but the Cavaliers play their final two games on the road against a fast-closing Georgia Tech, and a Virginia Tech team that might be 5-5 and needing a win to earn a bowl bid. Duke, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech all have three conference losses, but the chances that any of the three can win the division are quite remote. And, in the end, who really wants to get drubbed by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game?

Already Bowl Eligible: Clemson, Syracuse, Boston College, North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Duke, and Georgia Tech

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Miami

 

Big 12
This is another interesting race with four teams contending for the two Championship Game bids. Oklahoma (6-1) and West Virginia (6-1) control their own destiny, but since they still must play each other, at least one of these two teams might no longer control their destiny.

Iowa State (5-2) would sneak into the Big 12 Championship Game, should they beat Texas and Kansas State and Oklahoma beats West Virginia. Texas (5-2) would be the second team if the Longhorns beat Iowa State and Kansas and West Virginia beats Oklahoma.
Should West Virginia lose at Oklahoma State this week and then beat Oklahoma, then there could be a three-way tie at 7-2, with one of the teams eliminated. Should WVU, Oklahoma, and Texas finish tied in this scenario, Texas and Oklahoma would play for the Big 12 Championship. Should WVU, Oklahoma, and Iowa State finish tied in this scenario, then Iowa State and West Virginia would play for the title.

Already Bowl Eligible: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, and Iowa State

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and  Baylor

 

Big Ten
The East race is down to the same two teams that have always competed for the Big Ten title. Michigan faces Ohio State in Columbus in two weeks, and the winner will face Northwestern for the Big Ten Championship.
Obviously, the Wolverines are playing for a lot more than just the league title. Wins over Indiana, Ohio State, and Northwestern will clinch a spot in the Playoffs. Ohio State has a minimal chance of making the playoffs by closing out with wins over Maryland, Michigan, and Northwestern. Northwestern can win the Rose Bowl bid by upsetting either team in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Already Bowl Eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Iowa

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: Indiana, Purdue, and Minnesota

Pac-12
The North Division race will be determined in the Palouse when the Washington Huskies visit Washington State for the Apple Cup. Stanford has been eliminated by virtue of losing to both Olympic State teams.
The South Division is still quite chaotic. Arizona State, Arizona, and Utah have three conference losses, while USC has four. Arizona State is the current tiebreaker leader by virtue of a win over Utah, while Utah drubbed Arizona and holds second place today. However, Arizona has not played Arizona State, and should the Wildcats beat the Sun Devils, and there is a multiple way tie at 5-4 with three or four teams, the possibilities are not endless, but they seem to appear that way. USC is not in the race, even if they finish in a first place tie. In the event of a tie at 5-4 between Arizona State, Arizona, USC, and Utah, the Utes win the tiebreaker. In another scenario, if Colorado beats Utah, Oregon beats Arizona State, and then Arizona State beats Arizona, then Arizona State wins the division at 5-4 no matter what USC does.
Already Bowl Eligible: Washington State, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, California, Utah, and Arizona State

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: USC and Arizona

 

Southeastern
This is a race that is already determined. Alabama and Georgia will play in the SEC Championship Game no matter what they do the rest of the season. We expect they will both win out. Georgia finishes with two non-conference opponents. They can name the score with UMass, and they should be able to slow down the Georgia Tech option game and run over the Techsters to finish 11-1. Alabama could score 100 points this week against The Citadel if Nick Saban was Barry Switzer or Bill Yeoman, but we expect a possible 56-0 halftime score to lead to a 77-0 win at most. Then, Alabama should handle Auburn in Tuscaloosa to finish 12-0.
Georgia would have to win the SEC Championship to get into the Playoffs unless a lot of nearly impossible events leave a trail of two loss teams in the wake. If the Bulldogs upset the Tide, then most likely Georgia would move up to number two and Alabama would fall to number three, leaving Michigan in a bind.

Already Bowl Eligible: Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Auburn

Predicted to become Bowl Eligible: South Carolina and Tennessee

Here are this week’s playoff and bowl projections.

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. Middle Tennessee
Cure AAC SBC Cincinnati Troy
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Boise St. USC
Camellia MAC SBC Buffalo Appalachian St.
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech UL-Monroe
Boca Raton AAC CUSA SMU Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large Memphis [BYU]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA South Florida Marshall
Bahamas MAC CUSA Toledo Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Ohio U Nevada
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulane Missouri
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 Houston [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA Indiana North Texas
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Boston College Minnesota
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Tech Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Miami (Fla.) [Arizona]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh Wisconsin
Texas Big 12 SEC Oklahoma St. Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC North Carolina St. Tennessee
Camping World ACC Big 12 Syracuse Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC Fresno St. Arkansas St.
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Washington
Belk ACC SEC Virginia South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large West Virginia LSU
Military AAC ACC Temple Duke
Sun ACC Pac-12 Georgia Tech California
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Iowa Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Baylor Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Northwestern Stanford
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Purdue Auburn
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. Kentucky
Fiesta At-large At-large Central Florida Utah
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Penn St. Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

FBS Playoff Projections

Cotton Alabama Michigan
Orange Clemson Notre Dame
Championship Game Alabama Clemson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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November 4, 2018

PiRate Ratings–College Football Week 11

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday November 6
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Buffalo Kent St. 22.1 23.1 23.3

 

Wednesday November 7
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Miami (O) Ohio U -3.7 -3.3 -2.3
Northern Illinois Toledo 0.2 -0.1 0.5

 

Thursday November 8
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
North Carolina St. Wake Forest 11.7 13.2 13.5

 

Friday November 9
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Syracuse Louisville 22.9 22.1 23.2
Boise St. Fresno St. -2.0 -2.3 -2.9

 

Saturday November 10
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Houston Temple 1.8 2.5 1.5
Rutgers Michigan -40.1 -39.9 -42.5
Pittsburgh Virginia Tech -1.4 -0.6 -0.8
Boston College Clemson -19.6 -19.4 -20.6
Texas A&M Ole Miss 13.3 12.4 13.2
Tennessee Kentucky -13.0 -11.2 -13.3
Massachusetts BYU -16.5 -15.3 -16.5
Virginia Liberty 26.1 26.9 25.1
Georgia Southern Troy 1.2 1.6 0.3
Iowa St. Baylor 15.8 16.1 16.0
Central Florida Navy 30.0 28.3 30.8
West Virginia TCU 10.6 11.0 11.6
Georgia Tech Miami (Fla.) 4.3 5.0 5.0
Kansas St. Kansas 7.3 7.4 8.1
Eastern Michigan Akron 7.4 7.7 7.8
Indiana Maryland -1.4 -1.1 -0.7
Connecticut SMU -18.9 -18.4 -19.5
Duke North Carolina 13.9 12.9 13.7
Oklahoma Oklahoma St. 16.1 16.7 16.7
Iowa Northwestern 9.0 9.0 8.9
Cincinnati South Florida 12.9 13.2 13.9
Coastal Carolina Arkansas St. -6.5 -5.4 -7.2
Tulane East Carolina 15.3 16.1 15.9
Utah Oregon 9.7 8.1 9.5
Colorado Washington St. -9.1 -7.5 -8.2
Marshall Charlotte 18.1 18.4 18.4
Old Dominion North Texas -15.6 -14.6 -16.5
Central Michigan Bowling Green 8.0 10.0 8.5
Nevada Colorado St. 12.8 12.2 13.3
Stanford Oregon St. 32.1 31.9 33.6
UTEP Middle Tennessee -17.5 -16.1 -18.8
Georgia Auburn 15.9 14.6 15.6
Penn St. Wisconsin 8.8 8.8 9.5
Alabama Mississippi St. 24.1 24.3 24.7
Air Force New Mexico 14.2 13.7 14.9
Missouri Vanderbilt 19.1 17.4 20.0
Nebraska Illinois 12.8 12.0 12.8
Minnesota Purdue -14.2 -13.9 -14.7
Memphis Tulsa 12.6 14.5 13.2
Florida South Carolina 3.1 2.4 4.3
USC California 3.9 4.5 3.1
Texas Tech Texas 1.2 1.5 1.0
Arkansas LSU -16.4 -18.2 -18.7
Utah St. San Jose St. 35.3 35.7 38.0
Texas St. Appalachian St. -21.4 -20.3 -22.5
Louisiana Georgia St. 9.0 9.2 10.1
Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 20.9 19.3 20.9
South Alabama UL-Monroe -7.7 -6.4 -8.0
Louisiana Tech Rice 28.6 27.9 30.9
UTSA Florida Int’l. -10.3 -9.9 -10.4
Notre Dame Florida St. 21.8 20.2 21.6
UAB Southern Miss. 17.2 16.8 17.8
Michigan St. Ohio St. -0.2 -0.3 -0.4
Arizona St. UCLA 16.3 15.5 18.6
San Diego St. UNLV 22.7 21.7 23.1

 

FBS FCS
Home Visitor PiRate
Army Lafayette 47.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0
2 Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7
3 Michigan 130.2 129.0 131.0 130.0
4 Georgia 128.9 126.3 130.0 128.4
5 Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9
6 Oklahoma 123.0 121.8 123.3 122.7
7 Ohio St. 121.7 119.7 121.5 121.0
8 Washington 121.0 118.9 121.6 120.5
9 Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1
10 L S U 119.1 118.4 120.2 119.2
11 Missouri 119.0 117.5 120.1 118.8
12 Michigan St. 118.4 116.4 118.1 117.7
13 Penn St. 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2
14 Iowa 116.6 114.8 116.4 115.9
15 Boston College 116.6 114.4 116.4 115.8
16 Auburn 115.5 114.3 116.9 115.6
17 Utah 115.7 114.0 116.1 115.3
18 West Virginia 115.6 114.6 114.9 115.0
19 Central Florida 114.4 114.6 114.7 114.6
20 Fresno St. 114.3 113.9 115.0 114.4
21 Iowa State 114.7 113.3 114.6 114.2
22 Kentucky 114.5 113.2 114.4 114.0
23 Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9
24 Georgia Tech 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8
25 Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 114.1 113.5
26 Purdue 113.8 112.2 113.6 113.2
27 Washington St. 113.0 111.8 112.6 112.5
28 Texas 113.1 111.5 112.4 112.3
29 Miami 112.9 111.2 112.0 112.1
30 Utah St. 111.1 112.5 112.5 112.0
31 N. Carolina St. 112.2 111.6 111.9 111.9
32 Duke 112.4 110.5 111.8 111.6
33 Florida 111.7 109.9 112.3 111.3
34 Wisconsin 112.3 109.7 111.4 111.1
35 S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0
36 Syracuse 111.6 110.4 110.9 111.0
37 Arizona St. 111.3 110.0 111.2 110.8
38 Texas Tech 111.2 109.9 110.4 110.5
39 Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0
40 Oregon 109.0 108.9 109.6 109.2
41 Boise St. 109.3 108.7 109.1 109.0
42 Virginia Tech 109.7 108.4 108.9 109.0
43 Oklahoma St. 108.9 107.1 108.6 108.2
44 U S C 108.5 106.9 107.7 107.7
45 T C U 108.0 106.6 106.3 106.9
46 California 107.6 105.5 107.6 106.9
47 Virginia 105.9 106.1 105.2 105.7
48 Pittsburgh 105.3 104.8 105.1 105.1
49 Florida St. 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7
50 Army 104.3 105.0 104.5 104.6
51 Maryland 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5
52 Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5
53 Arizona 103.8 102.4 104.1 103.4
54 Vanderbilt 102.9 103.0 103.1 103.0
55 Temple 102.6 102.6 103.3 102.8
56 Kansas St. 103.0 101.6 102.0 102.2
57 Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9
58 Memphis 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9
59 Houston 101.4 102.1 101.8 101.8
60 Nebraska 102.2 100.9 101.1 101.4
61 Baylor 101.9 100.2 101.6 101.2
62 Colorado 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2
63 Wake Forest 102.5 100.4 100.4 101.1
64 BYU 100.3 100.7 100.8 100.6
65 U A B 99.3 102.0 100.3 100.6
66 Ohio U 99.8 101.1 100.7 100.5
67 Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.5 100.4
68 Toledo 99.2 100.6 99.2 99.7
69 N. Carolina 100.0 99.1 99.6 99.6
70 San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5
71 N. Texas 98.6 100.9 99.1 99.5
72 Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5
73 Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7
74 Tennessee 98.5 98.9 98.1 98.5
75 Arkansas 99.7 97.2 98.5 98.5
76 Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6
77 U C L A 98.0 97.5 95.7 97.0
78 Northern Illinois 96.5 97.4 96.7 96.9
79 Air Force 96.1 96.8 96.6 96.5
80 Tulane 96.2 96.8 96.3 96.4
81 Kansas 97.2 95.7 95.5 96.1
82 Minnesota 96.6 95.3 95.9 95.9
83 Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5
84 Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.3 95.4
85 SMU 95.3 95.0 94.8 95.0
86 Eastern Michigan 94.0 95.4 94.3 94.6
87 Wyoming 94.7 94.8 94.3 94.6
88 Middle Tennessee 93.5 95.3 94.6 94.5
89 Nevada 94.2 94.3 94.4 94.3
90 Louisiana Tech 92.6 94.6 93.6 93.6
91 Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1
92 Illinois 92.4 91.9 91.3 91.9
93 South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6
94 Louisville 91.7 91.2 90.7 91.2
95 Tulsa 91.1 90.6 91.2 91.0
96 Georgia Southern 89.9 91.6 90.5 90.7
97 Akron 89.1 90.2 89.0 89.5
98 Western Michigan 88.5 90.1 89.5 89.4
99 Florida Int’l. 87.6 91.2 88.1 89.0
100 Arkansas St. 87.8 89.3 89.2 88.8
101 Navy 87.4 89.3 86.9 87.9
102 Rutgers 87.5 86.5 86.0 86.7
103 Southern Miss. 84.6 87.7 85.0 85.8
104 UL-Monroe 85.2 85.7 85.8 85.6
105 New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2
106 Colorado St. 84.4 85.1 84.1 84.5
107 Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4
108 Central Michigan 83.2 85.5 83.6 84.1
109 Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7
110 East Carolina 83.4 83.2 82.9 83.2
111 Liberty 81.8 81.2 82.1 81.7
112 Old Dominion 80.5 83.7 80.1 81.5
113 Massachusetts 80.3 81.9 80.8 81.0
114 Kent St. 80.1 81.2 80.2 80.5
115 W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2
116 Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2
117 Ball St. 79.7 81.7 79.1 80.2
118 Hawaii 79.9 81.5 78.8 80.1
119 U N L V 79.7 80.6 79.7 80.0
120 Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9
121 San Jose St. 78.8 79.8 77.5 78.7
122 Bowling Green 77.7 78.1 77.5 77.8
123 Georgia St. 76.6 78.5 76.8 77.3
124 U T S A 74.8 78.7 75.2 76.3
125 South Alabama 75.0 76.8 75.3 75.7
126 Texas State 73.8 76.6 74.1 74.8
127 U T E P 73.0 76.2 72.9 74.0
128 Connecticut 73.8 74.2 72.8 73.6
129 N. Mexico St. 72.0 73.8 71.9 72.6
130 Rice 66.5 69.2 65.2 67.0

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Central Florida 114.4 114.6 114.7 114.6 5-0 8-0
Temple 102.6 102.6 103.3 102.8 4-1 5-4
Cincinnati 101.2 102.9 101.7 101.9 4-1 8-1
South Florida 91.3 92.7 90.8 91.6 3-2 7-2
East Carolina 83.4 83.2 82.9 83.2 0-5 2-6
Connecticut 73.8 74.2 72.8 73.6 0-5 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average AAC Overall
Memphis 101.2 102.6 101.9 101.9 2-3 5-4
Houston 101.4 102.1 101.8 101.8 4-1 7-2
Tulane 96.2 96.8 96.3 96.4 3-2 4-5
SMU 95.3 95.0 94.8 95.0 3-2 4-5
Tulsa 91.1 90.6 91.2 91.0 1-4 2-7
Navy 87.4 89.3 86.9 87.9 1-4 2-7
AAC Averages 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Clemson 139.2 136.9 140.1 138.7 6-0 9-0
Boston College 116.6 114.4 116.4 115.8 4-1 7-2
N. Carolina St. 112.2 111.6 111.9 111.9 2-2 6-2
Syracuse 111.6 110.4 110.9 111.0 4-2 7-2
Florida St. 105.3 104.3 104.5 104.7 2-5 4-5
Wake Forest 102.5 100.4 100.4 101.1 1-4 4-5
Louisville 91.7 91.2 90.7 91.2 0-6 2-7
Coastal Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average ACC Overall
Georgia Tech 114.2 113.2 114.0 113.8 3-3 5-4
Miami 112.9 111.2 112.0 112.1 2-3 5-4
Duke 112.4 110.5 111.8 111.6 2-3 6-3
Virginia Tech 109.7 108.4 108.9 109.0 3-2 4-4
Virginia 105.9 106.1 105.2 105.7 4-2 6-3
Pittsburgh 105.3 104.8 105.1 105.1 4-1 5-4
N. Carolina 100.0 99.1 99.6 99.6 1-5 1-7
ACC Averages 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average B12 Overall
Oklahoma 123.0 121.8 123.3 122.7 5-1 8-1
West Virginia 115.6 114.6 114.9 115.0 5-1 7-1
Iowa State 114.7 113.3 114.6 114.2 4-2 5-3
Texas 113.1 111.5 112.4 112.3 4-2 6-3
Texas Tech 111.2 109.9 110.4 110.5 3-3 5-4
Oklahoma St. 108.9 107.1 108.6 108.2 2-4 5-4
T C U 108.0 106.6 106.3 106.9 2-4 4-5
Kansas St. 103.0 101.6 102.0 102.2 1-5 3-6
Baylor 101.9 100.2 101.6 101.2 3-3 5-4
Kansas 97.2 95.7 95.5 96.1 1-5 3-6
Big 12 Averages 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Michigan 130.2 129.0 131.0 130.0 6-0 8-1
Ohio St. 121.7 119.7 121.5 121.0 5-1 8-1
Michigan St. 118.4 116.4 118.1 117.7 5-2 6-3
Penn St. 118.1 115.5 117.9 117.2 3-3 6-3
Maryland 104.3 102.9 103.4 103.5 3-3 5-4
Indiana 99.9 98.8 99.7 99.5 1-5 4-5
Rutgers 87.5 86.5 86.0 86.7 0-6 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average BTen Overall
Iowa 116.6 114.8 116.4 115.9 3-3 6-3
Purdue 113.8 112.2 113.6 113.2 4-2 5-4
Wisconsin 112.3 109.7 111.4 111.1 4-2 6-3
Northwestern 110.6 108.9 110.4 110.0 5-1 5-4
Nebraska 102.2 100.9 101.1 101.4 1-5 2-7
Minnesota 96.6 95.3 95.9 95.9 1-5 4-5
Illinois 92.4 91.9 91.3 91.9 2-4 4-5
Big Ten Averages 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
Conference USA
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
Florida Atlantic 97.0 98.2 97.5 97.6 2-3 4-5
Marshall 94.2 96.8 95.3 95.5 3-2 5-3
Middle Tennessee 93.5 95.3 94.6 94.5 5-1 6-3
Florida Int’l. 87.6 91.2 88.1 89.0 4-1 6-3
Old Dominion 80.5 83.7 80.1 81.5 1-5 2-7
W. Kentucky 79.1 81.9 79.5 80.2 0-5 1-8
Charlotte 79.1 81.5 79.9 80.2 3-2 4-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average CUSA Overall
U A B 99.3 102.0 100.3 100.6 6-0 8-1
N. Texas 98.6 100.9 99.1 99.5 3-2 7-2
Louisiana Tech 92.6 94.6 93.6 93.6 4-1 6-3
Southern Miss. 84.6 87.7 85.0 85.8 2-3 3-5
U T S A 74.8 78.7 75.2 76.3 2-3 3-6
U T E P 73.0 76.2 72.9 74.0 1-4 1-8
Rice 66.5 69.2 65.2 67.0 0-6 1-9
CUSA Averages 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
FBS Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average Conf. Overall
Notre Dame 124.2 121.5 123.1 122.9 x 9-0
Army 104.3 105.0 104.5 104.6 x 7-2
BYU 100.3 100.7 100.8 100.6 x 4-5
Liberty 81.8 81.2 82.1 81.7 x 4-4
Massachusetts 80.3 81.9 80.8 81.0 x 4-6
N. Mexico St. 72.0 73.8 71.9 72.6 x 3-7
Indep. Averages 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Ohio U 99.8 101.1 100.7 100.5 4-1 6-3
Buffalo 99.3 101.3 100.5 100.4 5-0 8-1
Miami (O) 94.1 95.8 96.3 95.4 3-2 3-6
Akron 89.1 90.2 89.0 89.5 2-3 4-4
Kent St. 80.1 81.2 80.2 80.5 1-4 2-7
Bowling Green 77.7 78.1 77.5 77.8 0-5 1-8
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MAC Overall
Toledo 99.2 100.6 99.2 99.7 3-2 5-4
Northern Illinois 96.5 97.4 96.7 96.9 5-0 6-3
Eastern Michigan 94.0 95.4 94.3 94.6 3-3 5-5
Western Michigan 88.5 90.1 89.5 89.4 4-2 6-4
Central Michigan 83.2 85.5 83.6 84.1 0-6 1-9
Ball St. 79.7 81.7 79.1 80.2 2-4 3-7
MAC Averages 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Utah St. 111.1 112.5 112.5 112.0 5-0 8-1
Boise St. 109.3 108.7 109.1 109.0 4-1 7-2
Air Force 96.1 96.8 96.6 96.5 1-4 3-6
Wyoming 94.7 94.8 94.3 94.6 2-4 4-6
New Mexico 84.9 86.1 84.6 85.2 1-4 3-6
Colorado St. 84.4 85.1 84.1 84.5 2-3 3-6
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average MWC Overall
Fresno St. 114.3 113.9 115.0 114.4 5-0 8-1
San Diego St. 99.4 99.4 99.9 99.5 4-1 7-2
Nevada 94.2 94.3 94.4 94.3 3-2 5-4
Hawaii 79.9 81.5 78.8 80.1 3-3 6-5
U N L V 79.7 80.6 79.7 80.0 0-5 2-7
San Jose St. 78.8 79.8 77.5 78.7 1-4 1-8
MWC Averages 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Washington 121.0 118.9 121.6 120.5 5-2 7-3
Stanford 114.6 112.3 114.8 113.9 3-3 5-4
Washington St. 113.0 111.8 112.6 112.5 5-1 8-1
Oregon 109.0 108.9 109.6 109.2 3-3 6-3
California 107.6 105.5 107.6 106.9 2-4 5-4
Oregon St. 85.5 83.4 84.2 84.4 1-5 2-7
South Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average P12 Overall
Utah 115.7 114.0 116.1 115.3 4-3 6-3
Arizona St. 111.3 110.0 111.2 110.8 3-3 5-4
U S C 108.5 106.9 107.7 107.7 4-3 5-4
Arizona 103.8 102.4 104.1 103.4 4-3 5-5
Colorado 100.9 101.3 101.4 101.2 2-4 5-4
U C L A 98.0 97.5 95.7 97.0 2-4 2-7
Pac-12 Averages 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Georgia 128.9 126.3 130.0 128.4 6-1 8-1
Missouri 119.0 117.5 120.1 118.8 1-4 5-4
Kentucky 114.5 113.2 114.4 114.0 5-2 7-2
Florida 111.7 109.9 112.3 111.3 4-3 6-3
S. Carolina 111.6 110.5 111.0 111.0 4-3 5-3
Vanderbilt 102.9 103.0 103.1 103.0 1-4 4-5
Tennessee 98.5 98.9 98.1 98.5 1-4 4-5
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SEC Overall
Alabama 142.0 140.3 143.6 142.0 6-0 9-0
Mississippi St. 120.4 118.5 121.4 120.1 2-3 6-3
L S U 119.1 118.4 120.2 119.2 4-2 7-2
Auburn 115.5 114.3 116.9 115.6 3-3 6-3
Texas A&M 113.9 112.5 114.1 113.5 3-3 5-4
Ole Miss 103.6 103.1 103.9 103.5 1-4 5-4
Arkansas 99.7 97.2 98.5 98.5 0-5 2-7
SEC Averages 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
Sunbelt Conference
East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Appalachian St. 97.7 99.4 99.2 98.7 4-1 6-2
Troy 91.2 92.5 92.7 92.1 5-0 7-2
Georgia Southern 89.9 91.6 90.5 90.7 4-1 7-2
Coastal Carolina 78.8 81.3 79.6 79.9 2-3 5-4
Georgia St. 76.6 78.5 76.8 77.3 1-4 2-7
West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average SBC Overall
Arkansas St. 87.8 89.3 89.2 88.8 2-3 5-4
UL-Monroe 85.2 85.7 85.8 85.6 3-2 5-4
Louisiana 82.5 84.7 83.9 83.7 2-3 4-5
South Alabama 75.0 76.8 75.3 75.7 1-4 2-7
Texas State 73.8 76.6 74.1 74.8 1-4 3-6
Sun Belt Averages 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

 

Ranking of Conferences

# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 114.4 113.1 114.8 114.1
2 ACC 110.0 108.8 109.4 109.4
3 B12 109.6 108.2 109.0 108.9
4 BTEN 108.9 107.3 108.4 108.2
5 PAC12 107.4 106.1 107.2 106.9
6 AAC 94.9 95.5 94.9 95.1
7 MWC 93.9 94.5 93.9 94.1
8 IND 93.8 94.0 93.9 93.9
9 MAC 90.1 91.5 90.6 90.7
10 CUSA 85.7 88.4 86.2 86.8
11 SUN 83.8 85.6 84.7 84.7

Top 5 Group of 5

  1. Central Florida
  2. Fresno St.
  3. Utah St.
  4. Cincinnati
  5. UAB

 

This Week’s Playoff and Bowl Projections

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Mexico MWC CUSA Utah St. North Texas
Cure AAC SBC South Florida Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC Pac-12 Fresno St. Stanford
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio U Troy
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech Louisiana
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Cincinnati Florida Atlantic
Frisco AAC At-Large Houston [BYU]
Gasparilla AAC CUSA Memphis Marshall
Bahamas MAC CUSA Toledo Florida Int’l.
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Eastern Michigan Boise St.
Birmingham AAC SEC Tulane Vanderbilt
Armed Forces AAC Big 12 SMU [Army]
Dollar General MAC SBC Northern Illinois Georgia Southern
Hawaii CUSA MWC UAB Hawaii
Heart of Dallas Big Ten CUSA [California] Middle Tennessee
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Virginia [Buffalo]
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Oklahoma St. Arizona St.
Independence ACC SEC Miami (Fla.) [Arizona]
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Pittsburgh Purdue
Texas Big 12 SEC Baylor Texas A&M
Music City ACC/Big Ten SEC Boston College Auburn
Camping World ACC Big 12 Syracuse Iowa St.
Arizona MWC SBC San Diego St. UL-Monroe
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 Texas Utah
Belk ACC SEC Duke South Carolina
Peach At-large At-large Central Florida Kentucky
Military AAC ACC Temple Virginia Tech
Sun ACC Pac-12 Georgia Tech USC
San Francisco Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin Oregon
Liberty Big 12 SEC Texas Tech Mississippi St.
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Penn St. Washington
Gator ACC/Big Ten SEC Northwestern Missouri
Outback Big Ten SEC Michigan St. LSU
Fiesta At-large At-large North Carolina St. West Virginia
Citrus ACC/Big Ten SEC Iowa Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Ohio St. Washington St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Oklahoma Georgia
FBS PLAYOFFS
Cotton Alabama Michigan
Orange Clemson Notre Dame
Championship Game Alabama Clemson
Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

Our Predictions on the Selection Committee Top 4

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Notre Dame
  4. Michigan

 

Looking Like Many More Bowl Eligible Teams Than Bowls This Year

In recent seasons, teams with 5-7 or 6-7 records qualified for bowl games because there were not enough teams to fill all the bowls.  Thanks to the Poinsettia Bowl folding, this losing record bowl team issue ceased last year.

This year, it looks like the Poinsettia and other bowls could have been created with more than enough bowl eligible teams for as many as 42 bowls.

As we look at the field heading into week 11, we believe that as many as 84 teams will reach bowl eligibility, and there is room for just 78.  When this happens, it hurts the Group of 5 conferences, and that is what we are expecting this year.

Here’s a look at some possible scenarios by each conference.

American Athletic

The AAC has tie-ins with seven bowls, but after this past weekend’s events with Houston and South Florida losing, the path now looks clear for Central Florida to run the table and for the second consecutive year, winning the precious New Year’s 6 Bowl bid.  That would create an eighth spot for the league, and we forecast eight teams to be bowl eligible.

Tulane and SMU now look like legitimate threats to get to 6-6 after the Green Wave blew USF to sea, and the Mustangs ended Houston’s hopes to make the Fiesta or Peach Bowl.

 

Atlantic Coast

Let’s include Notre Dame in this grouping, since the Fighting Irish are eligible for the ACC bowls.  What this means is that two teams from this group should make the NCAA Playoffs, with Clemson joining Notre Dame.

North Carolina State is 6-2 with four very winnable games remaining on their schedule.  Since the Wolf Pack will not be in the ACC Championship Game, and East Carolina will not be in the AAC Championship Game, their contingency late-scheduled game for December will take place, giving NC St. a great shot at 10-2 and possibly a NY6 Bowl.

Counting Notre Dame, we forecast 11 ACC teams to become bowl eligible, and with three going to either the playoffs or NY6, there will be eight remaining bowl eligible teams for eight remaining bowl bids.

 

Big 12

We believe that Oklahoma and West Virginia will face each other in back-to-back weeks, the first game in Morgantown, and the second in the Big 12 Championship Game.  We also believe there is a strong chance these two teams will split these games, and thus no Big 12 team will earn a spot in the Playoffs.

That throws the Big 12 Champion into the Sugar Bowl, while the runner-up is likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl.  That takes care of two bowl eligible teams.  We forecast seven Big 12 teams to make bowl eligibility, so there will be five additional teams but there will be six remaining bowls.  This will leave the Armed Forces Bowl without a Big 12 opponent.  This is fine, because there will be a perfect at-large team for this bowl.

 

Big Ten

This has become a quite interesting race, if only in the competitive West Division.  In the East, the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game will be in line for the Playoffs if they can win the Big Ten Championship Game the next week.  That is, of course, it Ohio State can win at Michigan State this week, and that will be a tough task.

We forecast Michigan to win out and make the Playoffs, with Ohio State getting the Rose Bowl bid (even if they lose to the Spartans and finish 9-3).  The rest of the bowl order in this league will be almost cut and dry, because the Big Ten has rules not to send repeat teams to bowls when there are other options.  The repeat extends out to four years.

We forecast the Big Ten to have just eight bowl eligible teams due to tough closing schedules for the four remaining teams in competition for six wins.  Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota look like seven loss teams as of this week.

Thus, the league will come up two teams short in supplying bowl eligible schools, and the Quick Lane and Heart of Dallas Bowl (First Responder Bowl) will not have Big Ten teams this year.

Conference USA

Last year, CUSA had 10 bowl eligible teams, and nine of them earned bowl bids.  UTSA missed out.  This year, it looks like seven teams will get to six wins, and the league has seven bowl bids.  The champion  gets to choose its bowl destination from any of the league tie-ins.  It’s a good bet the champion will choose either the Hawaii or Bahamas Bowl.

Independents

Not counting Notre Dame, three other teams should become bowl eligible.  However, one of those teams is Liberty, and the Flames will not be eligible for a bowl game unless they are not enough bowl eligible teams.  As we mentioned already, there will be a glut and not a dearth this year.

Army is on mark for a 10-2 record, and the aforementioned Armed Forces Bowl would be the ideal location for the Black Knights, even though they played in this bowl last year.  Still, it’s the Armed Forces Bowl!

BYU may only finish 6-6, and the Cougars may be weaker than a half-dozen other bowl eligible schools that do not receive bowl bids.  However, they have a guarantee with ESPN to be placed in a bowl game if they are 6-6.  Thus, they will beat out a team that might be 8-4.  The Frisco Bowl has only one conference tie-in this year, and this is an ESPN-sponsored bowl, so it would be the logical place to send the Cougars.

Mid-American

This is a league almost assured of having more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots, even if the league gets an extra bowl game as the alternate for the Quick Lane Bowl.  In the East, Ohio U and Buffalo are already bowl eligible.  Northern Illinois and Western Michigan are bowl eligible out of the West, and Toledo and Eastern Michigan will soon join them to make it six bowl eligible teams for five bowl games.  Buffalo and Western Michigan were bowl eligible and left out last year, and it would be terrible for one of these two schools to get left out again.  Buffalo could be 10-2 or 11-2 and not the MAC Champion, so it figures that the Bulls have to get a bowl this year, or else they might consider looking elsewhere for a league.

Mountain West

This could be the most unlucky conference of all, where a team with eight wins does not earn a bid.  If a couple of Power 5 conference teams lingering at .500 or just below get to 6-6, and there are many in the running, they will steal bowl spots from the MWC.

We forecast seven MWC teams to make bowl eligibility, which means we believe Wyoming will win their final two games.  Because their last game will be at New Mexico, we think that will keep the Cowboys out of the running for the New Mexico Bowl, and that will keep them out of the bowls altogether.

Nevada is in line to be 8-4 and not make a bowl game if there are enough Power 5 league teams to gobble up all the at-large bids after Army and BYU get their bowl bids.  The Wolfpack are clearly better than Hawaii, but the Rainbows will clinch their hometown bid with a win over lowly UNLV on November 17.

Pac-12

This is the most interesting conference of all this year due to parity.  With three weeks remaining in the conference race, 10 of the 12 teams can still earn the Rose Bowl bid!  There could even be a six-way tie for first place in the six-team South Division!  As the late Dick Enberg would have no doubt said, “Oh my!”

Being a bit more realistic, even when this league tends to shy away from realism, let’s for now say that Washington State continues to win and finish the regular season at 11-1.  The Cougars would then advance to the Pac-12 Championship Game and be a healthy favorite to win and earn the Rose Bowl bid, assuming that they cannot slip into the Playoffs.

In the West, Utah still has a slim advantage over the remaining teams for the division flag, and because it would take another 5,000 words to explain all the possible scenarios, we will forecast the Utes to win the South.

Still, that is going to most likely leave this league with nine bowl eligible teams for seven bowl bids.  The last two in the priority list will likely be California and Arizona, two teams that would no doubt be number one and number two in the at-large pool.

Southeastern

Our forecast for the top league has been undergoing weekly changes, as we forecast 10 bowl eligible teams one week and 11 the next.  This is an 11-team forecast week, as team number 11 is Vanderbilt.  The Commodores are 4-5.  A loss at Missouri this week and then wins at home over Ole Miss and Tennessee would put Vandy at 6-6.  Tennessee is also 4-5, and should the Vols upset Kentucky or Missouri, the season-ending rivalry game in Nashville between the Vols and Commodores could be for the last bowl bid.  If one of these two Volunteer State rivals gets to 6-6, it makes live very bad for Nevada and a team from the MAC.

Sun Belt

This is another league likely to have a glut of bowl eligible teams for their contracted bowl tie-ins.

Troy, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern are already bowl eligible.  Coastal Carolina, Arkansas State, and Louisiana-Monroe need one more win each to get to bowl eligibility, and they should all make it.  Louisiana needs two more wins, and we believe the Ragin’ Cajuns will get those two wins.  This adds up to seven bowl eligible teams for five bowl bids.  Coastal Carolina and one other team will be jilted.  While it should be Louisiana, the boys from Lafayette will get the New Orleans Bowl bid with six wins, as they have many times before.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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