PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 5–October 10-11, 2010

Four weeks into the NFL season gives us enough time to begin to make assumptions.  There just may not be a great team in the league this year.  The Kansas City Chiefs are the only undefeated team left, and it is a good bet they will not be so after this week.

We have a lot of mediocre teams and a handful of good but not great teams.  Scoring is down this year.  That gives the odds makers quite a dilemma.  The underdog is covering more than ever this year.  The lines will be shorter, and this will create many instances where sweetheart teaser plays become more advantageous.

If a team that should be a five-point favorite all of a sudden becomes a two and a half-point favorite, then playing a 10-point teaser to make them a seven and a half-point underdog becomes truly sweet and playing a 13-point teaser to make them a 10 ½-point underdog becomes money in the bank.

The PiRates are having a great time playing these NFL sweetheart teasers so far this year.  In fact, we may have to consider not playing any college games and picking just NFL games, at least as long as this hot streak continues.

We have also fattened up on money line parlays that take advantage of the fact that favorites are still winning but not covering.  The lower the regular spread, the lower the money line odds. 

                                                PiRate QB Passer Ratings                                       

 

Player	Team	AYPA	INT%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Peyton Manning	IND	7.4	0.58	120.3
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	6.1	0.00	118.2
Tony Romo	DAL	6.6	1.56	107.2
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.6	1.71	105.9
Donovan McNabb	WAS	6.5	1.65	105.9
Tom Brady	NE	6.3	1.64	104.9
Drew Brees	NO	6.2	1.79	103.0
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.3	2.84	99.9
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	1.82	98.2
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.1	2.01	94.8
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.6	2.86	90.2
Jay Cutler	CHI	5.7	2.94	90.0
Josh Freeman	TB	4.8	2.41	89.7
Matt Shcaub	HOU	5.6	3.08	88.3
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.4	2.46	87.0
Chad Henne	MIA	5.2	3.03	86.5
Vince Young	TEN	4.8	2.82	86.1
Kevin Kolb	PHI	3.3	2.22	82.9
Dennis Dixon	PIT	4.5	3.13	81.7
Matt Cassel	KC	4.4	3.90	74.4
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.5	4.21	72.1
Eli Manning	NYG	4.8	4.55	70.9
Sam Bradford	STL	3.6	3.80	70.7
Joe Flacco	BAL	3.8	4.63	64.5
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	3.0	4.17	64.1
Shaun Hill	DET	3.7	4.67	63.6
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.7	4.76	62.8
Alex Smith	SF	3.5	4.64	62.8
Jason Campbell	OAK	2.2	3.85	62.5
Derek Anderson	ARI	2.8	4.46	60.4
Trent Edwards	BUF	1.5	3.85	58.6
Jake Delhomme	CLE	3.7	5.41	57.2
David Garrard	JAX	3.0	5.21	55.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	5.2	7.14	50.3
Brett Favre	MIN	2.8	6.19	45.2
Charlie Batch	PIT	3.8	7.14	42.4
Matt Moore	CAR	1.2	8.16	18.9
PiRate Passer Rating Formula: [(AYPA * 7) – (11 * Int%) + 105] * 0.8

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
Dallas	104.2	102.2	102.3	1-2-0	18.0	17.7
Philadelphia	102.0	100.5	100.3	2-2-0	23.8	19.8
New York Giants	100.7	99.0	99.1	2-2-0	18.0	22.0
Washington	98.1	99.4	97.5	2-2-0	18.3	19.8
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	104.2	104.3	104.5	3-1-0	26.5	18.3
Minnesota	103.3	101.7	102.0	1-2-0	14.3	12.7
Chicago	100.9	99.7	101.1	3-1-0	17.3	17.0
Detroit	94.3	94.0	95.7	0-4-0	20.5	26.5
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	105.7	104.5	105.4	3-1-0	23.3	15.0
New Orleans	103.3	103.0	103.4	3-1-0	19.8	18.0
Carolina	97.9	94.9	95.9	0-4-0	11.5	21.8
Tampa Bay	94.3	97.6	97.6	2-1-0	16.7	19.7
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	97.2	94.6	92.8	0-4-0	13.0	25.8
Seattle	94.5	95.7	95.4	2-2-0	18.8	19.3
St. Louis	94.0	96.5	97.3	2-2-0	19.3	13.0
Arizona	92.5	94.3	94.2	2-2-0	14.5	29.5
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	111.1	108.2	109.0	3-1-0	26.5	15.3
New England	106.6	106.1	106.5	3-1-0	32.8	24.0
Miami	100.1	98.6	101.3	2-2-0	16.5	23.0
Buffalo	92.6	93.7	93.4	0-4-0	15.3	31.3
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	106.1	105.6	106.3	3-1-0	15.3	13.8
Pittsburgh	103.7	107.0	105.5	3-1-0	21.5	12.5
Cincinnati	101.6	100.8	100.9	2-2-0	19.8	19.5
Cleveland	97.4	97.3	96.3	1-3-0	17.0	19.3
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	104.9	104.4	103.4	2-2-0	29.3	23.0
Houston	101.9	101.5	103.5	3-1-0	27.0	25.5
Tennessee	99.4	102.3	99.5	2-2-0	24.5	17.0
Jacksonville	94.1	95.0	95.2	2-2-0	17.8	27.8
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	103.8	103.5	103.0	2-2-0	28.3	17.8
Kansas City	100.5	101.8	100.9	3-0-0	22.7	10.3
Denver	97.0	99.1	97.8	2-2-0	21.8	21.3
Oakland	92.4	93.0	92.7	1-3-0	19.0	26.8

 

This Week’s Games                                                                

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site                                                       

                                                                       

Week 5: October 10-11, 2010                                                            

Vegas Line as of 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday                                                                

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 5: October 10-11, 2010
Vegas Line as of 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
BALTIMORE	Denver	12.1	9.5	11.5	7	38 1/2
BUFFALO	Jacksonville	1.5	1.7	1.2	Pk	41
INDIANAPOLIS	Kansas City	7.4	5.6	5.5	8	44 1/2
DETROIT	St. Louis	3.3	0.5	1.4	3	42 1/2
Atlanta	CLEVELAND	5.3	4.2	6.1	3	40 1/2
CINCINNATI	Tampa Bay	9.3	5.2	5.3	6 1/2	38
Chicago	CAROLINA	0.0	1.8	2.2	2 1/2	35 1/2
Green Bay	WASHINGTON	3.1	1.9	4.0	2 1/2	44
HOUSTON	New York Giants	3.2	4.5	6.4	3	47 1/2
New Orleans	ARIZONA	8.8	6.7	7.2	6 1/2	45 1/2
San Diego	OAKLAND	9.4	8.5	8.3	6	45
DALLAS	Tennessee	7.8	2.9	5.8	6 1/2	41 1/2
Philadelphia	SAN FRANCISCO	0.8	1.9	3.5	-3	38
NEW YORK JETS	Minnesota	9.8	8.5	9.0	4	38 1/2

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 4–October 3-4, 2010

Week 3 PiRate Passer Ratings *

Player	Team	AYPA	Int %	PiRate #
Peyton Manning	IND	7.7	0.00	127.1
Michael Vick	PHI	6.7	0.00	121.5
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	6.1	0.00	118.2
Donovan McNabb	WAS	7.0	0.98	114.6
Kyle Orton	DEN	7.4	1.60	111.4
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.7	0.94	107.6
Tony Romo	DAL	6.6	1.56	107.2
Chad Henne	MIA	5.8	1.08	107.0
Jay Cutler	CHI	7.5	2.20	106.7
Drew Brees	NO	6.2	1.79	103.0
Tom Brady	NE	6.5	2.04	102.4
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	1.82	98.2
Phillip Rivers	SD	6.7	3.31	92.4
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.6	2.86	90.2
Josh Freeman	TB	4.8	2.41	89.7
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.4	2.46	87.0
Dennis Dixon	PIT	4.5	3.13	81.7
Brad Gradkowski	OAK	5.1	3.57	81.1
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.4	3.96	79.4
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.7	3.06	77.8
Matt Cassel	KC	4.4	3.90	74.4
Kerry Collins	TEN	3.7	4.00	69.5
Alex Smith	SF	3.7	4.20	67.7
Vince Young	TEN	4.3	4.65	67.1
Joe Flacco	BAL	3.8	4.63	64.5
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	3.0	4.17	64.1
Sam Bradford	STL	3.1	4.27	63.8
Shaun Hill	DET	3.7	4.67	63.6
Jason Campbell	OAK	2.2	3.85	62.5
Trent Edwards	BUF	1.5	3.85	58.6
Eli Manning	NYG	4.5	5.88	57.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	3.7	5.41	57.2
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.9	5.56	57.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	5.2	7.14	50.3
Brett Favre	MIN	2.8	6.19	45.2
Charlie Batch	PIT	3.8	7.14	42.4
David Garrard	JAX	1.8	6.76	34.6
Matt Moore	CAR	1.2	8.16	18.9

 

* PiRate Passer Rating Formula: [(AYPA * 7) – (11 * Int%) + 105] * 0.8

Where AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (passing yards minus yards after catch)

AYPA is available at advancednflstats.com

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	PPG	Opp
Dallas	104.2	102.4	103.6	1-2-0	18.0	17.7
Philadelphia	103.3	103.1	103.6	2-1-0	27.7	20.7
New York Giants	98.8	94.8	97.4	1-2-0	18.3	28.3
Washington	96.8	99.4	95.6	1-2-0	18.7	22.3
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	105.8	106.6	107.8	2-1-0	26.0	15.7
Minnesota	103.3	102.5	102.3	1-2-0	14.3	12.7
Chicago	102.3	102.0	104.4	3-0-0	22.0	17.0
Detroit	92.7	95.1	92.7	0-3-0	18.7	26.0
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Atlanta	106.3	108.9	107.7	2-1-0	25.7	15.3
New Orleans	104.5	104.8	106.0	2-1-0	21.0	19.3
Carolina	96.7	90.7	91.4	0-3-0	10.7	23.7
Tampa Bay	94.3	94.8	97.1	2-1-0	16.7	19.7
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	96.4	93.2	95.4	0-3-0	10.3	29.0
Arizona	95.6	97.5	97.9	2-1-0	16.0	25.7
Seattle	95.5	99.3	100.1	2-1-0	24.0	19.0
St. Louis	92.5	96.2	94.7	1-2-0	19.0	16.3
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	108.6	104.4	106.7	2-1-0	22.7	15.7
New England	104.6	100.4	104.5	2-1-0	30.0	27.3
Miami	102.1	101.6	101.2	2-1-0	17.3	17.0
Buffalo	95.6	94.0	91.2	0-3-0	15.7	29.0
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	104.8	101.9	103.7	2-1-0	14.7	13.7
Pittsburgh	104.5	107.7	107.7	3-0-0	24.0	11.0
Cincinnati	102.3	98.1	102.4	2-1-0	19.7	18.3
Cleveland	96.7	95.7	94.8	0-3-0	15.0	19.0
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	105.9	109.7	107.8	2-1-0	29.7	20.3
Houston	101.7	103.8	103.4	2-1-0	25.7	26.0
Tennessee	101.1	102.6	102.5	2-1-0	26.0	14.0
Jacksonville	93.1	93.4	91.2	1-2-0	13.3	27.7
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	101.2	101.6	99.9	1-2-0	24.0	20.3
Kansas City	100.5	100.4	99.5	3-0-0	22.7	10.3
Denver	95.8	100.6	96.8	1-2-0	20.3	21.7
Oakland	92.6	92.3	89.1	1-2-0	17.3	25.3

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 4: October 3-4, 2010
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
TENNESSEE	Denver	8.3	5.0	8.7	6 1/2	41 1/2
PITTSBURGH	Baltimore	2.7	8.8	7.0	1 1/2	34 1/2
Cincinnati	CLEVELAND	3.6	0.4	5.6	3	37 1/2
GREEN BAY	Detroit	16.1	14.5	18.1	14 1/2	45 1/2
NEW ORLEANS	Carolina	10.8	17.1	17.6	13	44
ATLANTA	San Francisco	12.9	18.7	15.3	7	42
Seattle	ST. LOUIS	1.0	1.1	3.4	Pk	38 1/2
New York Jets	BUFFALO	10.0	7.4	12.5	5	37
Indianapolis	JACKSONVILLE	9.8	13.3	13.6	7 1/2	46 1/2
Houston	OAKLAND	7.1	9.5	12.3	3	43 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Arizona	7.6	6.1	4.0	8	46
PHILADELPHIA	Washington	9.5	6.7	11.0	6	42 1/2
Chicago	NEW YORK GIANTS	0.5	4.2	4.0	-4	44
New England	MIAMI	0.5	-3.2	1.3	Pk	45 1/2

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 2–September 19-20, 2010

18.3!  That is the average number of points scored per team in the opening week of the 2010 NFL season.  That is a little more than a field goal less per team compared to last year.  Is this a sign that scoring is about to become harder in the league, or is it more of a case of so many closely-matched contests in week one?  We will have to wait a couple of weeks before we can begin to make an assumption.

Week two finds a handful of interesting games on the slate.  The Jets hook up with the Pats, and it is almost a must-win game for Coach Rex Ryan and his crew.  After losing Monday night at home to Baltimore, a loss would to New England would give Team Belichick a two-game edge in the AFC East.

Indianapolis hosts the Giants in a battle of Manning vs. Manning.  The Colts could not stop the Houston running game, and the Texans are not a rushing behemoth.  If Eli and company get the best of Peyton and company, the Colts could be two games behind the rest of the division.

Kansas City visits Cleveland, and if the Chiefs can pull off the road win over a weak Browns’ team, they will become a legitimate threat in the AFC West.  The Chiefs get Cleveland and Buffalo as part of finishing fourth in the division last year, while the Chargers must play New England and Cincinnati. 

Dallas hosts Chicago, and the Cowboys must rebound or else they could find themselves in a hole they cannot crawl out of.  Jerry Jones might even begin to consider his options if the Cowboys lay another egg offensively this week.  The mental anguish of having the winning touchdown called back could do to Dallas what Virginia Tech’s loss to Boise State did to the Hokies.  Additionally, Chicago benefitted from a final play penalty to beat Detroit, and the Bears could get a positive bounce from that event.

The Saints and Vikings got an extra three days to prepare for their second games.  Minnesota hosts Miami.  The Dolphins struggled to beat the hapless Bills, and the Vikes are much better at home than they are on the road.  After the opening touchdown drive, Minnesota’s defense shut down Drew Brees.

The Saints fly into a hornet’s nest in San Francisco.  Mike Singletary will have the 49ers hopping mad after the embarrassing loss at Seattle.

                Week One PiRate Passer Ratings *                                

Player	Team	PiRate #
David Garrard	JAX	126.0
VinceYoung	TEN	125.4
Tom Brady	N-E	125.4
Peyton Manning	IND	123.8
Phil Rivers	S-D	122.1
Drew Brees	N-O	118.7
Derek Anderson	ARI	118.7
Michael Vick	PHI	118.2
Tony Romo	DAL	116.5
Donovan McNabb	WAS	111.4
Chad Henne	MIA	108.6
Matthew Stafford	DET	108.1
Jay Cutler	CHI	104.2
Trent Edwards	BUF	101.4
Matt Cassel	K-C	99.1
Carson Palmer	CIN	98.9
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	98.6
Kyle Orton	DEN	93.2
Matt Ryan	ATL	87.5
Joe Flacco	BAL	87.2
Dennis Dixon	PIT	82.1
Josh Freeman	T-B	75.0
Brett Favre	MIN	74.9
Jason Campbell	OAK	74.8
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	73.7
Alex Smith	S-F	59.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	57.2
Matt Schaub	HOU	47.9
Shaun Hill	DET	47.2
Sam Bradford	STL	46.1
Aaron Rodgers	G-B	40.1
Eli Manning	NYG	18.4
Matt Moore	CAR	6.2

 

* PiRate Passer Rating: [((7 x AYPA) – (10 x Int. %)) + 105] x 0.8

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (eliminates Yards After the Catch)

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Dallas	103.6	102.7	101.1	0-1-0	7	13
New York Giants	101.5	102.5	101.9	1-0-0	31	18
Philadelphia	101.0	100.8	99.0	0-1-0	20	27
Washington	99.2	100.6	98.7	1-0-0	13	7
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	104.8	106.7	105.8	1-0-0	27	20
Minnesota	104.6	105.2	105.5	0-1-0	9	14
Chicago	100.3	96.8	99.9	1-0-0	19	14
Detroit	92.3	91.3	92.4	0-1-0	14	19
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New Orleans	105.4	107.7	107.9	1-0-0	14	9
Atlanta	103.9	102.3	102.9	0-1-0	9	15
Carolina	100.1	100.4	98.2	0-1-0	18	31
Tampa Bay	94.7	96.7	94.6	1-0-0	17	14
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Francisco	98.6	95.8	98.2	0-1-0	6	31
Arizona	98.3	98.6	98.7	1-0-0	17	13
Seattle	95.2	98.4	98.0	1-0-0	31	6
St. Louis	90.3	90.7	91.3	0-1-0	13	17
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
NY Jets	106.8	103.2	104.3	0-1-0	9	10
New England	106.1	104.4	107.4	1-0-0	38	24
Miami	101.7	101.3	101.7	1-0-0	15	10
Buffalo	97.0	95.2	95.9	0-1-0	10	15
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Baltimore	106.1	105.2	106.9	1-0-0	10	9
Pittsburgh	101.7	102.9	102.6	1-0-0	15	9
Cincinnati	99.9	98.9	99.6	0-1-0	24	38
Cleveland	96.9	95.0	94.1	0-1-0	14	17
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Houston	103.7	104.3	103.3	1-0-0	34	24
Indianapolis	103.2	103.9	103.1	0-1-0	24	34
Tennessee	100.5	102.6	102.9	1-0-0	38	13
Jacksonville	96.9	97.8	98.2	1-0-0	24	17
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
San Diego	101.2	101.8	101.1	0-1-0	14	21
Kansas City	97.0	98.7	97.8	1-0-0	21	14
Denver	96.0	95.8	96.4	0-1-0	17	24
Oakland	91.6	92.0	90.6	0-1-0	13	38
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 2: Sept. 19-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of: 10:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
CLEVELAND	Kansas City	2.9	-0.7	-0.7	1	38
GREEN BAY	Buffalo	10.8	14.5	12.9	13	43
Baltimore	CINCINNATI	4.2	4.3	5.3	2 1/2	40
TENNESSEE	Pittsburgh	1.8	2.7	3.3	4 1/2	37
Philadelphia	DETROIT	5.7	6.5	3.6	5	42
DALLAS	Chicago	6.3	8.9	4.2	7 1/2	41
CAROLINA	Tampa Bay	8.4	6.7	6.6	NL	NL
ATLANTA	Arizona	8.6	6.7	7.2	6 1/2	43
MINNESOTA	Miami	6.9	7.9	7.8	5 1/2	39 1/2
OAKLAND	St. Louis	3.3	3.3	1.3	3 1/2	37 1/2
DENVER	Seattle	3.8	0.4	1.4	3 1/2	40
Houston	WASHINGTON	1.5	0.7	1.6	3	44
SAN DIEGO	Jacksonville	6.3	6.0	4.9	7 1/2	45 1/2
NEW YORK JETS	New England	2.7	0.8	-1.1	-1 1/2	38 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	New York Giants	4.7	4.4	4.2	5 1/2	48
New Orleans	SAN FRANCISCO	2.8	7.9	5.7	4 1/2	44

Introducing the PiRate NFL Pass Rating Formula

 

The National Football League has been using the same pass rating formula for multiple decades.  It uses a combination of completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and interceptions.  If you want to calculate it on your own, here it is:

 

I.     (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +

II.    (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +

III.   (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)

 

If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375

 

Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating.  Here is an example:

 

In 1963, Y. A. Tittle had these stats for the New York Giants

Completions 221  Attempts 367  Yards 3145  Touchdowns 36  Interceptions 14

 

I.     (60.20 – 30.0) * 0.05 = 1.51  +

II.    (8.57-3.0) * 0.25 = 1.39        +

III.   (20 * .098) = 1.96                +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * .038) = 1.43    +

 

 Subtotal = 6.29     6.29 * 16.667 =

                     104.8

 

Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings.  However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.

 

Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.

 

Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.

 

Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

 

Smith is obviously much better, correct?  No, not correct.  It depends on several other things.  What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them?  What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers?  All these stats show us are just that—their stats.

 

Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains.  Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.

 

In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt.  Let’s look at two separate plays.  Passer A completes 13-yard pass for a touchdown.  It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone.  This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.

 

Now, let’s look at Passer B.  His team is backed up at their own 1 yard line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker.  The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one yard from scoring.  This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8!  Peyton Manning actually had a better total season rating than this a couple years ago, and even though he ranks among the best ever, he was not worth a 98-yard completion every time he threw the ball!

 

Can this be?  You betcha!  The rating is flawed.  Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds protection.

 

Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.

 

Our formula looks at just two statistics.  The first is interception percentage.  An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average.  We realize that all interceptions are not the same.  A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense. 

 

The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA.  It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch.  If Passer A completed a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consisted of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with the back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).

 

Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:

[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8

 Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100

 Anything over 100 is an excellent rating.  Over 90 means the QB is above average.  80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.

 In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes.  Yards gained are what matters.  Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4th & 1.  Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1st & 10.  Which outcome is better?

 Touchdowns skew the ratings.  If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other. 

 Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action.  First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA?  There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB.  Go to: www.advancednflstats.com. 

 Here is a look at both ratings side-by-side:

Player	PiRate QB Rating		Player	Official NFL Rating
Aaron Rodgers	108.9	|||	Drew Brees	109.6
Drew Brees	107.5	|||	Brett Favre	107.2
Brett Favre	106.7	|||	Phil Rivers	104.4
Tony Romo	105.6	|||	Aaron Rodgers	103.2
Phil Rivers	104.8	|||	Ben Roethlisberger	100.5
Ben Roethlisberger	97.9	|||	Peyton Manning	99.9
Matt Schaub	97.8	|||	Matt Schaub	98.6
Peyton Manning	97.2	|||	Tony Romo	97.6
Donovan McNabb	96.3	|||	Tom Brady	96.2
David Garrard	96.1	|||	Kurt Warner	93.2
Kyle Orton	94.7	|||	Eli Manning	93.1
Brad Gradkowski	94.4	|||	Donovan McNabb	92.9
Tom Brady	93.8	|||	Joe Flacco	88.9
Kurt Warner	93.4	|||	Kyle Orton	86.8
Eli Manning	92.8	|||	Jason Campbell	86.4
Vince Young	92.1	|||	Carson Palmer	83.6
Joe Flacco	87.7	|||	David Garrard	83.5
Marc Bulger	86.7	|||	Vince Young	82.8
Jason Campbell	85.4	|||	Alex Smith	81.5
Matt Ryan	83.0	|||	Matt Ryan	80.9
Carson Palmer	81.7	|||	Brad Gradkowski	80.6
Chad Henne	80.8	|||	Jay Cutler	76.8
Alex Smith	79.7	|||	Chad Henne	75.2
Brady Quinn	78.4	|||	Matt Hasselbeck	75.1
Matt Hasselbeck	75.7	|||	Trent Edwards	73.8
Matt Cassel	75.7	|||	Marc Bulger	70.7
Kerry Collins	72.1	|||	Matt Cassel	69.9
Trent Edwards	69.9	|||	Ryan Fitzpatrick	69.7
Kyle Boller	69.1	|||	Brady Quinn	67.2
Jay Cutler	67.3	|||	Kerry Collins	65.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick	64.3	|||	Mark Sanchez	63.0
Mark Sanchez	60.9	|||	Kyle Boller	61.2
JaMarcus Russell	56.4	|||	Matt Stafford	61.0
Matt Stafford	54.1	|||	Josh Freeman	59.8
Jake Delhomme	51.5	|||	Jake Delhomme	59.4
Josh Freeman	46.4	|||	JaMarcus Russell	50.0
Derek Anderson	46.3	|||	Derek Anderson	42.1

 

Coming tomorrow: We reveal the initial NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the 2010 season and give our predictions for each division.

PiRate Ratings Week 12 NFL Previews: November 20-23, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 12

It Was A Touchdown!

 

To those who are a little poorer today than they were Sunday morning, my sincere condolences go to you and Troy Polamalu.  You should have won.  If you follow my advice and adhere to my request to do this just for fun, it only cost you a quick laugh (more about that in this week’s selections at the bottom).

 

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings
NFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New York		9	–	1	–	0	292	170	110.47	108.91	109.67	2
Dallas		6	–	4	–	0	230	229	101.05	101.25	102.66	2
Washington		6	–	4	–	0	181	182	99.96	100.17	101.02	2
Philadelphia		5	–	4	–	1	264	193	106.59	104.54	102.02	2
NFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Green Bay		5	–	5	–	0	274	209	107.61	105.28	102.97	2
Chicago		5	–	5	–	0	240	231	102.83	100.74	101.11	2
Minnesota		5	–	5	–	0	223	234	101.65	101.08	100.94	2
Detroit		0	–	10	–	0	173	308	87.78	90.46	90.04	3
NFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Carolina		8	–	2	–	0	222	155	105.40	103.89	105.25	2
Tampa Bay		7	–	3	–	0	219	160	106.19	104.15	104.86	2
Atlanta		6	–	4	–	0	231	198	102.71	101.15	102.37	2
New Orleans		5	–	5	–	0	266	249	100.56	100.83	100.67	2
NFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Arizona		7	–	3	–	0	289	228	103.24	103.51	104.15	3
San Francisco		3	–	7	–	0	230	275	93.76	94.33	94.41	3
Seattle		2	–	8	–	0	190	257	93.57	95.18	94.55	3
St. Louis		2	–	8	–	0	144	317	83.58	89.63	89.04	2
AFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New York		7	–	3	–	0	289	221	102.69	102.65	104.46	2
New England		6	–	4	–	0	219	194	99.73	101.92	101.33	2
Miami		6	–	4	–	0	209	197	99.79	99.38	102.03	2
Buffalo		5	–	5	–	0	219	218	97.46	97.50	98.19	3
AFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Pittsburgh		7	–	3	–	0	209	150	107.34	105.45	104.75	2
Baltimore		6	–	4	–	0	222	180	104.99	104.23	102.24	3
Cleveland		4	–	6	–	0	201	221	99.02	99.29	99.46	2
Cincinnati		1	–	8	–	1	138	249	92.86	93.53	94.67	2
AFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Tennessee		10	–	0	–	0	244	131	111.29	108.54	108.56	2
Indianapolis		6	–	4	–	0	224	224	102.73	102.66	102.07	2
Jacksonville		4	–	6	–	0	212	210	100.41	100.39	98.76	3
Houston		3	–	7	–	0	236	287	96.01	97.02	96.00	3
AFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Denver		6	–	4	–	0	248	271	96.76	97.65	100.48	2
San Diego		4	–	6	–	0	254	229	101.55	101.00	99.71	2
Oakland		2	–	8	–	0	128	235	89.60	91.62	88.84	2
Kansas City		1	–	9	–	0	165	273	90.87	92.20	92.81	2

 

Note: due to a Thursday game this week, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday Noon EST

 

NFL Previews-Week 12

 

Cincinnati (1-8-1) at Pittsburgh (7-3-0)

Time:           8:15 EST Thursday 11/20

TV:               NFL Network

Forecast:     Snow showers likely, moderate wind, temperature dropping from low 30’s to upper 20’s

 

PiRate:         Pittsburgh by 16                   

Mean:           Pittsburgh by 14

Bias:             Pittsburgh by 12

Vegas:        Pittsburgh by 10½   -600/+500

Ov/Un:        34  

Strategy:     Pittsburgh -½ in 10-point teaser, Pittsburgh +2½ in 13-point teaser, Over 24 in 10-point teaser, Over 21 in 13-point teaser

Has Cincinnati become a good team after starting the season as the Lions of the AFC?  Philadelphia has a potent offense, and holding the Eagles to 13 points in five full quarters of play is something to look at.  Pittsburgh’s offense is mediocre at the present time, and the Steelers may find the going tough, especially if inclement weather neutralizes their offense.

 

On the other hand, Pittsburgh slaughtered Cinti 38-10 just a month ago.  The Steelers’ defense is almost as strong as Tennessee’s.  I cannot see the Bengals scoring enough points in this game no matter how few they may need to score to win.  I am looking for the Steelers to come up with a big play or two, probably on the defensive side and possibly due to special teams.  Call it a Steeler win in the neighborhood of 20-7.  Because the weather could be worse or better than expected, I won’t take Pittsburgh outright in a straight play, but I do expect 25 or more points to be scored, even if there is a blizzard.     

 

Minnesota (5-5-0) at Jacksonville (4-6-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the low 60’s

 

PiRate:         Jacksonville by 2

Mean:           Jacksonville by 2

Bias:             Jacksonville by 1

Vegas:        Jacksonville by 2      -140/+120

Ov/Un:        40½              

Strategy:     Minnesota +12 in 10-point teaser, Minnesota +15 in 13-point teaser, Over 30½ in 10-point teaser, Over 27½ in 13-point teaser 

This will be a tough battle between two teams just hanging on to playoff hopes.  If Minnesota wins, they get to hang on to a piece of first place in the NFC North and could possibly own it all to themselves.  If Jacksonville wins, they will still be in contention to get into contention.  If the Jags lose, their season is done.

 

I like the Vikings in the teasers because when they lose, it is usually by a touchdown or less, and when the Jags win, it is usually by a touchdown or less.  While this game could be lower scoring than normal, I cannot see it becoming a defensive struggle.  I am looking for a minimum of a 20-13 score either way and a maximum of 28-24 either way, so I am teasing the over in this game.

 

Philadelphia (5-4-1) at Baltimore (6-4-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in the low 40’s

 

PiRate:         Baltimore by 1

Mean:           Baltimore by 3

Bias:             Baltimore by 3

Vegas:        Baltimore by 1          -120/+100   

Ov/Un:        39½

Strategy:     Philadelphia +11 in 10-point teaser, Philadelphia +14 in 13-point teaser, Over 26½ in 13-point teaser

We have two teams here who will be ready to play hard in an effort to erase the memories of what happened in their previous games.  The Eagles debacle with Cincinnati was made all the more worse when Donovan McNabb obviously did not know the rules of the game.  Of course, he does not call the plays, and the coaching staff knew the rules.  However, thinking that another overtime period was coming, he may not have played with the necessary hurried mentality.  On some of those plays in the second-to-last Eagle possession before the Hail Mary pass at the end, he may have thrown to a different receiver not trying to gamble when it actually was time to gamble.

 

Baltimore thought they were near the equal of the defending Super Bowl champions, and they had their hat handed to them when they played the Giants last week.  The Ravens are still on the good side of the playoff bubble and could still win 11 games this year.  That won’t happen if they don’t win this game.

 

I expect a close, hard-fought game that goes down to the wire.  I consider it a 50-50 contest, so I’ll play the teasers that give me the most points (taking the underdog).  I expect both offenses to be on their game and look for more than 30 total points in this game.  The 13-point tease on the Over looks like a gift here.

 

New England (6-4-0) at Miami (6-4-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Chance of showers, strong wind, temperature in the low to mid 70’s

 

PiRate:         Miami by 2

Mean:           New England by 1

Bias:             Miami by 3

Vegas:        Miami by 2         -125/+105

Ov/Un:        42

Strategy:     New England +12 in 10-point teaser, New England +15 in 13-point teaser, Under 55 in 13-point teaser

11 weeks ago, who would have thought that this game would match two teams with identical records, and who would have thought that Miami would have clobbered the Patriots in the earlier meeting?  This game will be all about payback.  New England cannot afford to lose this game and remain a serious playoff threat.  Two losses to the Dolphins may leave them on the outside looking in for the rest of the season.

 

Miami has been winning ugly the last few games.  The Dolphins narrowly defeated weak Seattle and Oakland teams.  The Patriots will come out and play the best defense they can play, and I cannot see Miami topping 17 points.  The single wing won’t exploit the Pats like it did in the first game.

 

I expect New England to win this one outright, but I am going to play it safe and just take them and double digit points in the teasers.  Since Miami’s defense is quite capable, I will tease the Under at 13 points.  At 55 points, we still win if the final is 34-17, and I cannot see either team scoring 28 points in this game.

 

Chicago (5-5-0) at St. Louis (2-8-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Chicago by 17

Mean:           Chicago by 9

Bias:             Chicago by 10

Vegas:         Chicago by 8      -350/+320  

Ov/Un:        43

Strategy:     Over 33 in 10-point teaser, Over 30 in 13-point teaser, Chicago +5 in 13-point teaser

The Bears are on the ropes after seemingly being in control of the NFC North two weeks ago.  They stopped the Titans’ ground game but lost the war when they allowed Kerry Collins to look like Peyton Manning.  Last week, Aaron Rodgers and company put a big whipping on them, and now there is a sense of urgency to avoid falling in the crapper.

 

St. Louis is back to being the dregs of the NFC.  I’m not sure they could beat Detroit today.  Injuries have hit, and the Rams just don’t have any depth.

 

Chicago scares me.  Kyle Orton obviously is not 100% healthy, and Rex Grossman is not the man who can run this offense.  Against an inept Rams’ defense, a semi-healthy Orton should put up 24 points or more.  The Rams have a chance at the upset, but even if they were to win, I can only see it coming by a field goal at the most.  Thus, I like taking the Bears in a 13-point teaser, as it gives us 5 points.  A teasing of the Over looks safe.

 

Houston (3-7-0) at Cleveland (4-6-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the upper 30’s

 

PiRate:         Cleveland by 5

Mean:           Cleveland by 4

Bias:             Cleveland by 5

Vegas:        Cleveland by 3          -155/+135  

Ov/Un:        49½

Strategy:     Over 36½ in 13-point teaser

Both of these teams have been huge underachievers this year.  When two underachievers meet, there can be four outcomes each with about 25% of happening.  One team can play like they should have been playing while the other continues not to live up to its potential (that’s two different scenarios since it could be either team).  Both teams could play like they were supposed to be playing all along, or both teams could continue to play poorly.

 

Since there is a 50% probability that one of the two teams will play great while the other continues to stink, it makes playing a side too much of a risk.  However, I like the Over in a 13-point tease.  If only one team plays well, that team should top 35 points.  If both teams play well, it should be a track meet with both teams topping 24 points.  If both teams play poorly and underachieve once again, then two poor defenses should lead to a game with 60 or more total points.

 

San Francisco (3-7-0) at Dallas (6-4-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Chance of showers, moderate wind, temperature in upper 60’s

 

PiRate:         Dallas by 9

Mean:           Dallas by 9

Bias:             Dallas by 10

Vegas:        Dallas by 10  

Ov/Un:        47

Strategy:     Dallas Pk in 10-point teaser, Dallas +3 in 13-point teaser, Under 60 in 13-point teaser, Over 34 in 13-point teaser

Having Tony Romo back makes Dallas more than 10 points better than when he is out.  The Cowboys will win this game with about 95% certainty, but I wouldn’t advise giving away 10 points.  Play it safe and take Dallas as part of your parlay on a teaser.  This is a must-win game, and a one-point win is as good as an 11-point win for them.  Let it be that way for you too.

 

The teasing both ways of the totals are secondary plays in this game.  I see a final score being at least 21-17 and as much as 35-13.  Both scenarios fall within the 26-point range of both sides of the 13-point teaser.

 

Tampa Bay (7-3-0) at Detroit (0-10-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Tampa Bay by 15

Mean:          Tampa Bay by 11

Bias:             Tampa Bay by 12

Vegas:         Tampa Bay by 8       -355/+325

Ov/Un:        41

Strategy:     Tampa Bay +2 in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +5 in 13-point teaser, Under 54 in 13-point teaser

Detroit last won a game on the Sunday before Thanksgiving eight years ago.  That was a Lion team that had a winning record, and it came against an opponent that finished 5-11.

 

Tampa Bay is headed to the playoffs as either NFC South champs or a wildcard.  Detroit is just hoping to win a game this year.  They will be thinking about the annual turkey day game on national television, and this game won’t be the one they win.  Look for the Lions to be 0-11 on Thanksgiving day, and it would be ironic if they face an 11-0 Tennessee team.

 

Tampa Bay has more than a 95% chance of winning this game.  By taking the Bucs in 10 and 13-point teasers, we get them as an underdog.

 

Tampa Bay’s defense should do a number on Detroit’s offense.  The Lions will be lucky to reach 17 points, and I believe they could be held under 14.  Tampa Bay isn’t a team that blows opponents off the field.  The Bucs could win 31-10, and that wouldn’t come close to topping our Over.

 

Buffalo (5-5-0) at Kansas City (1-9-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the low 50’s

 

PiRate:         Buffalo by 5

Mean:          Buffalo by 3

Bias:             Buffalo by 3

Vegas:         Buffalo by 3 -165/+145

Ov/Un:        43½

Strategy:     Buffalo +7 in 10-point teaser, Buffalo +10 in 13-point teaser, Over 30½ in 13-point teaser

Dick Jauron cost his team a chance to win Monday night.  Trent Edwards quickly led the Bills into Browns’ territory at the end of the game.  Cleveland could not stop the Buffalo two-minute offense.  The Bills were facing a moderate wind, and a 46 yard field goal attempt was more like a 55 yard field goal attempt.  Jauron ordered consecutive running plays rather than continue to pass the ball.  Sure, Edwards had problems in the first quarter, but he was exploiting Cleveland’s defense on that final drive.  Jauron showed a lack of confidence in Edwards, and that does not bode well for the Bills.  I believe they are headed to a last place finish in the AFC East, and they could easily finish 7-9 or even 6-10.

 

Kansas City has now lost 19 of their last 20 games, but the Chiefs have suffered four close losses.  Tyler Thigpen is improving, and he could pass for 250 yards in this game.  Kansas City could certainly win this game, and I give them close to a 50% chance of doing so.  If they can pull off the upset, I am sure it will be by a touchdown or less.  Playing Buffalo in a 10 and 13-point teaser gives you seven and 10 points respectively.  I’ll take them.

 

I see this game leading to 40 points, so I’ll play the Over in a 13-point teaser.

 

New York Jets (7-3-0) at Tennessee (10-0-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the low 50’s

 

PiRate:         Tennessee by 11

Mean:           Tennessee by 8

Bias:             Tennessee by 6

Vegas:        Tennessee by 5

Ov/Un:        40½

Strategy:     Jets +15 in 10-point teaser, Jets +18 in 13-point teaser, Over 27½ in 13-point teaser

Can Brett Favre torch the best defense in the AFC in the same manner he has done the last two months?  The Jets have averaged better than 33 points per game over the last four games, and better than 32 points per game over the last eight.

 

Tennessee leads the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 13.1 points per game.  I believe that average will go up some this week, but maybe by just one point. 

 

This game could easily be a warm-up for the AFC Championship Game.  The Jets need it to be a high scoring game to win it, while the Titans need it to be a lower scoring game.  The weather will be perfect, and I believe Favre will be ready to play a great game.  He lives for games like this.

 

Tennessee keeps coming up with ways to win close games.  They may look awful for a half, and then in a span of five minutes, they score two touchdowns.  Then, their defense shuts down the opponents for the rest of the game.

 

I see the Titans struggling to stop the Jets this week.  I believe New York has as much chance of winning as Tennessee.  So, playing my typical strategy, I’ll take the underdog in the teasers and force the Titans to win by more than two touchdowns to beat me.  Playing the Over in a 13-point tease means we win if the score is 16-13, and I think that could be the halftime score this week.

 

Oakland (2-8-0) at Denver (6-4-0)

Time:           4:05PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the low 50’s

 

PiRate:         Denver by 9

Mean:           Denver by 8

Bias:             Denver by 14

Vegas:        Denver by 9 -400/+360 

Ov/Un:        42½

Strategy:     Denver +1 in 10-point teaser, Denver +4 in 13-point teaser, Under 52½ in 10-point teaser Under 55½ in 13-point teaser

Jay Cutler took apart the Raiders’ defense in the opening week of the season.  Oakland’s defense looked like Swiss cheese.  Since then, the Raider offense has disappeared, while the defense has played admirably.

 

Oakland has no offense to speak of since the dismissal of Lane Kiffin.  The Raiders have scored a grand total of 50 points in the last six games.  Even a second-rate Denver defense will hold the silver and black under 20 points.  Denver should gain the sweep and take a commanding lead in the AFC West, but I don’t expect Cutler to repeat the numbers he put up the first time.  I see Denver winning with a score similar to 31-17, 28-10, 30-14, and if it’s really close, 24-17.  Nine points is too much to ask the Broncos to cover, but taking the home team in the teasers is a nice, conservative move.  All of the scoring scenarios I listed are under 50 total points, so an Under tease is an approved move.

 

New York Giants (9-1-0) at Arizona (7-3-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature near 80

 

PiRate:         Giants by 4

Mean:          Giants by 2

Bias:            Giants by 3

Vegas:         Giants by 3

Ov/Un:        48½

Strategy:     Under 61½ in 13-point teaser

There is a second game this week that could be the preview of a conference championship game.  Arizona and the Giants could easily meet for the NFC title, but the game would take place in the Meadowlands and not in Phoenix.

 

I will be interested in seeing what the Giants do defensively to stop Kurt Warner.  The Warner that played for the Giants is not the same Warner today.  He has regained enough zip on his passes to be as dangerous as he was back in the “Greatest Show on Turf” days.

 

Remember two things.  First, the Giants figured a way to stop the Patriots’ offense last year.  That offense was considered the best ever to take the field.  Now, also remember that the Browns torched New York for 35 points. 

 

This will be the Giants’ first road game in the Mountain Time Zone.  It will be their third road game against a team with a winning record.  Those other two road games against winning teams both were in Pennsylvania.  They beat the Eagles by five and the Steelers by seven.

 

I believe Arizona is better than both Pitt and Philly.  I believe the road trip will be harder on the Giants than the hop to the Keystone State.  I believe we have another tossup game here, but I am not as confident as my writing would have you to believe.  If, and only if, you need one more game to fill out a parlay, then I would consider taking the Cardinals in a 10 or 13-point teaser.  I won’t be using that pick this week.  I only like teasing the Under in this game, because I believe the Giants will try to control the ball and eat up the clock and be happy to win 21-20.

 

Carolina (8-2-0) at Atlanta (6-4-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Carolina by 1

Mean:          Tossup

Bias:            Carolina by 1

Vegas:         Atlanta by 1½          -125/+105   

Ov/Un:        42½

Strategy:     Atlanta +8½ in 10-point teaser, Atlanta +11½ in 13-point teaser, Under 52½ in 10-point teaser, Under 55½ in 13-point teaser    

This game has been moved to 4:15 from 1:00, as it is an important game in the NFC South.  If the Panthers win this one, then they are in the driver’s seat in the division.  If Atlanta wins, then this race begins to look like the 1967 American League baseball pennant race.

 

The Falcons lost to Denver at the Georgia Dome last week, and they will bring their A-game this week.  Since their bye, Carolina has looked like they were not firing on all cylinders in relatively close wins over Oakland and Detroit.  They are primed to be upset.

 

I believe the Falcons have a great chance of winning this game, but so do the wise guys in Vegas.  So, I will resort to the teasers and take the Falcons.  We get more than a touchdown in 10 and 13-point teasers.  I also like teasing the Over in this game.  Atlanta’s defense will hold Carolina to 21 points or less, and the Falcons will not top 30.

 

Washington (6-4-0) at Seattle (2-8-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 40’s

 

PiRate:         Washington by 3

Mean:           Washington by 2

Bias:             Washington by 3

Vegas:        Washington by 3½         -170/+150

Ov/Un:        40½

Strategy:     Seattle +13½ in 10-point teaser, Seattle +16½ in 13-point teaser, Under 50½  in 10-point teaser, Under 53½ in 13-point teaser    

I thought the odds makers might install Seattle as a slight favorite in this game.  The Redskins are no juggernaut on the East Coast.  Let’s look at their recent history of the last month or so.  They lost at home to the Rams.  They barely edged Cleveland at home.  They had to come from behind in the fourth quarter to win at winless Detroit.  They didn’t show up in a loss at Pittsburgh, and then following a bye week, they blew the lead in a loss to Dallas.  That’s three losses in their last five games.

 

Seattle is not much better than Detroit and weaker than Cleveland.  They are better than the Rams.  While they are not in the Cowboys’ league, Washington will not be as up for this game as they were Sunday night. 

 

I give the Seahawks an excellent chance to win and almost recommend them straight up.  However, this week, I am only playing teasers, and I like getting the home team getting double digit points in this situation.  The score of Seattle games has been much lower as of late than it was at the beginning of the season.  Redskin games have been consistently lower than average, so I like teasing the Under in this one.

 

Indianapolis (6-4-0) at San Diego (4-6-0)

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Clear, light wind, temperature falling from upper 60’s to upper 50’s

                    

PiRate:         San Diego by 1

Mean:           San Diego by 3

Bias:             San Diego by 3

Vegas:        San Diego by 3

Ov/Un:        49½

Strategy:     Indianapolis +13 in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis +16 in 13-point teaser

San Diego is the most underachieving team this season.  The 4-6 Chargers were supposed to win 12 to 14 games this year.  Now, they are just barely on playoff life support.  If they are 4-7 Monday morning, and the Broncos are 7-4, then this race is over.  The Chargers will not qualify as a wildcard if they are 4-7 after 11 games.  So, this is definitely a must-win game for the home team.

 

Indianapolis is slowly beginning to look like a 10 or 11-win team.  If they win this game, they could even run the table and finish 12-4.  After this game, the Colts have Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, and Jacksonville and should win all four.  The season finale at home against Tennessee will only matter to the Titans if they are 15-0 then, and even at 15-0, Jeff Fisher would be crazy to stick with his key regulars and gamble on injuries.  We could see Vince Young running the zone read that week.

 

This game is not a must-win for the Colts, but we can never count out a Peyton Manning team in a nationally televised, primetime game.  I’ll take the Colts in the teasers and force San Diego to beat them big to hurt us.

 

Green Bay (5-5-0) at New Orleans (5-5-0)

Time:           8:30PM EST Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Green Bay by 5 

Mean:           Green Bay by 2

Bias:             Tossup

Vegas:        New Orleans by 2½        -135/+115

Ov/Un:        51½  

Strategy:     Green Bay +12½ in 10-point teaser, Green Bay +15½ in 13-point teaser, New Orleans +10½ in 13-point teaser, Over 38½ in 13-point teaser  

The Monday night games continue to be high scoring affairs, and now we get two teams that like to light up the scoreboards.  This has the makings of a possible 80-point game.  Drew Brees could pass for 350-500 yards, and Aaron Rodgers could be only a couple dozen yards behind him.  I expect a maximum number of plays, in the neighborhood of 135-140.  I cannot see either team holding the other one under 28 points.  This game actually gives us several possible plays.  The winner of this game should win by single digits.  The total points scored should be in the 40’s at the minimum.

 

Foiled By A Missed Interpretation Of The Rules And The Coaching Of Dick Jauron

 

Last week’s picks finished 9-6-0 for what looked like a winning week.  However, when looking at the “money” on the line, I lost $145.  Upon closer inspection, the wrong call in the Pittsburgh game cost me $210, which would have made it a winning week at 10-5-0 with $65 profit.  On Monday night, Buffalo was exploiting Cleveland’s secondary at the end of the game.  Trent Edwards quickly marched the Bills to the Browns 30 yard line, and then Coach Dick Jauron cost his team the game by running the ball forward for a grand total of a yard or two.  A 46 yard field goal attempt into a strong wind was not what to play for, especially when the Bills had time to drive to the goal line or at least into short field goal range.  It’s a little too late to reconsider Jauron’s long contract extension.  I advise you monitoring the Bills to see if Jauron has “lost the team.”  The Bills’ players were not happy with the end of the game management.

 

For the season, my picks against the spread are now 83-48-6 (63.4%).  The account balance is $1,920. 

 

Here are my wagers for week 12 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):

 

1. 10-point teaser

       A. Pittsburgh -½ vs. Cincinnati

       B. Miami +12 vs. Jacksonville

       C. Philadelphia +11 vs. Baltimore

 

2. 10-point teaser

       A. New England +12 vs. Miami

       B. Dallas Pk vs. San Francisco

       C. Tampa Bay +2 vs. Detroit

 

3. 10-point teaser

       A. New York Jets +15 vs. Tennessee

       B. Denver +1 vs. Oakland

       C. Seattle +13½ vs. Washington

 

4. 10-point teaser

       A. Indianapolis +13 vs. San Diego

       B. Green Bay + 12½ vs. New Orleans

       C. Pittsburgh & Cincinnati Over 24

 

5. 10-point teaser

       A. Minnesota & Jacksonville Over 30½

       B. Atlanta & Carolina Under 52½

       C. Seattle & Washington Under 50½

 

6. 13-point teaser

       A. Pittsburgh +2½ vs. Cincinnati

       B. New England +15 vs. Miami

       C. Minnesota & Jacksonville Over 27½

       D. Houston & Cleveland Over 36½

 

7. 13-point teaser

       A. Minnesota +15 vs. Jacksonville

       B. Chicago +5 vs. St. Louis

       C. Green Bay & New Orleans Over 38½

       D. Dallas & San Francisco Under 60

 

8. 13-point teaser

       A. Philadelphia +14 vs. Baltimore

       B. Dallas +3 vs. San Francisco

       C. New England & Miami Under 55

       D. Pittsburgh & Cincinnati Over 21

 

9. 13-point teaser

       A. New York Jets +18 vs. Tennessee

       B. Tampa Bay +5 vs. Detroit

       C. Denver +4 vs. Oakland

       D. Green Bay +15½ vs. New Orleans

 

10. 13-point teaser

       A. Atlanta +11½ vs. Carolina

       B. Seattle +16½ vs. Washington

       C. Indianapolis +16 vs. San Diego

       D. Buffalo & Kansas City Over 30½

 

11. 13-point teaser

       A. New York Jets & Tennessee Over 27½

       B. Philadelphia & Baltimore Over 26½

       C. Chicago & St. Louis Over 30

       D. Buffalo +10 vs. Kansas City               

     

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

PiRate Ratings NFL Previews For Week 11: November 13-17, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 11

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings
NFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New York		8	–	1	–	0	262	160	108.73	107.66	108.18	2
Washington		6	–	3	–	0	171	168	100.32	100.91	101.54	2
Philadelphia		5	–	4	–	0	251	180	108.50	105.53	104.70	2
Dallas		5	–	4	–	0	216	219	100.33	101.20	101.60	2
NFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Chicago		5	–	4	–	0	237	194	106.55	102.63	104.33	2
Minnesota		5	–	4	–	0	210	215	101.66	101.38	101.90	2
Green Bay		4	–	5	–	0	237	206	104.33	103.23	102.81	2
Detroit		0	–	9	–	0	151	277	87.31	89.90	85.94	3
NFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Carolina		7	–	2	–	0	191	133	106.84	104.19	105.90	2
Tampa Bay		6	–	3	–	0	200	147	106.08	103.46	105.01	2
Atlanta		6	–	3	–	0	211	174	104.11	102.06	104.33	2
New Orleans		4	–	5	–	0	236	229	100.49	100.32	99.06	2
NFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Arizona		6	–	3	–	0	263	208	103.71	102.93	104.42	3
Seattle		2	–	7	–	0	170	231	92.76	95.33	94.11	3
San Francisco		2	–	7	–	0	195	259	92.62	93.51	91.32	3
St. Louis		2	–	7	–	0	128	282	84.47	90.05	86.60	2
AFC East		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
New England		6	–	3	–	0	188	160	99.65	102.71	104.17	2
New York		6	–	3	–	0	255	190	102.62	102.12	104.04	2
Miami		5	–	4	–	0	192	182	100.60	99.58	102.53	2
Buffalo		5	–	4	–	0	192	189	97.47	97.85	99.16	3
AFC North		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Pittsburgh		6	–	3	–	0	198	140	107.83	105.45	105.75	2
Baltimore		6	–	3	–	0	212	150	106.45	105.14	105.41	3
Cleveland		3	–	6	–	0	172	194	98.52	98.51	96.50	2
Cincinnati		1	–	8	–	0	125	236	91.18	92.96	92.12	2
AFC South		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Tennessee		9	–	0	–	0	220	117	111.42	107.94	108.77	2
Indianapolis		5	–	4	–	0	191	197	103.05	103.17	103.14	2
Jacksonville		4	–	5	–	0	198	186	100.01	100.75	99.05	3
Houston		3	–	6	–	0	209	254	96.02	97.67	95.84	3
AFC West		Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	Rating	Mean	Biased	HTA
Denver		5	–	4	–	0	224	251	95.51	96.94	99.19	2
San Diego		4	–	5	–	0	244	218	101.06	100.83	101.68	2
Oakland		2	–	7	–	0	113	218	88.97	91.40	89.57	2
Kansas City		1	–	8	–	0	145	243	90.94	92.67	91.42	2

 

Note: due to a Thursday game this week, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday Noon EST

 

NFL Previews-Week 11

 

New York Jets (6-3) at New England (6-3)

Time:           8:15 EST Thursday 11/13

TV:               NFL Network

Forecast:     Rain Showers, moderate wind, temperature holding steady around 44 degrees

 

PiRate:         Jets by 1                  

Mean:           New England by 3

Bias:             New England by 2

Vegas:        New England by 3    -165/+155

Ov/Un:        40½  

Strategy:     New England +7 in 10-point teaser, New England +10 in 13-point teaser, Over 30½ in 10-point teaser, Over 27½ in 13-point teaser    

The weather could play an important role in this game, but I still believe the power of weeknight primetime television will have an even stronger effect.

 

To the winner goes undisputed first place in the toughest division in the AFC.  The Patriots’ defense dominated the Jets in their earlier meeting in New Jersey, but Brett Favre’s grasp of the Jet offense is much stronger now.  The Jets have scored 101 points in their last three games.

 

This is a tricky game, and the rivalry between the two coaches is important.  I like the home team on short preparation but not enough to take them outright.  Thus, I will utilize our trusty friend “The Teaser” and take the Pats and points.      

 

Denver (5-4) at Atlanta (6-3)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:         Atlanta by 11

Mean:           Atlanta by 7

Bias:             Atlanta by 7

Vegas:        Atlanta by 6       -265/+245

Ov/Un:        50½              

Strategy:     Over 40½ in 10-point teaser, Over 37½ in 13-point teaser 

Atlanta has a favorable schedule the rest of the way, and the Falcons should win at least 10 games.  Coach Mike Smith has to be one of the favorites for Coach of the Year.  His team has played tough every week, and his rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has enjoyed a first year that few star quarterbacks in the past have enjoyed.  Ryan is on pace for 3,400 passing yards and 20 TDs.

 

Denver’s Jay Cutler may have to pass the ball 45 times this week, as the Broncos are missing their top four runners.  There is a chance Selvin Young might be able to go, but it looks like fullback Peyton Hillis will have to carry the load.

 

I am looking for a rather high scoring game.  Atlanta has not surrendered more than 27 points in any game this year, and they may hold Denver to 21 to 27 points this week.  Atlanta will top 20 points as well, so I am teasing the totals.

 

Oakland (2-7) at Miami (5-4)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind with occasional strong gusts, temperature in low 70’s

 

PiRate:         Miami by 14      

Mean:           Miami by 10

Bias:             Miami by 15

Vegas:        Miami by 10½   -500/+400   

Ov/Un:        38

Strategy:     Miami -500 (as part of a money line parlay), Miami -½ in 10-point teaser, Miami +2½ in 13-point teaser

Teams traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast have yet to win a game this year, and I don’t expect that stat to change with this game.  Oakland has scored 35 total points in their last five games (since Tom Cable took over as interim coach).  JaMarcus Russell may be another Vince Young in the making without all the off-the-field problems.  He is questionable for this game.  Last week’s starter Andrew Walter is not 100% healthy this week, and he wasn’t effective when he was healthy.  Marques Tuiasosospo is the third quarterback; does it really matter which of these three play Sunday?  I don’t think so.  The Raiders are completely dysfunctional, and I’m thinking they will be lucky to score a touchdown this week.

 

Miami is the Atlanta of the AFC.  Coach Tony Sparano should be the AFC Coach of the Year, but Jeff Fisher might get that award if the Titans go 14-2 or better.  The Dolphins are considerably better defensively now than they were in September, and this week should be like child’s play for the stop side. 

 

When Miami has the ball, it may take a quarter to get untracked, but eventually they will score points.  Go with the fish in this one.  I like playing the Dolphins in a money line pick, but I love them as part of a money line parlay.

 

Baltimore (6-3) at New York Giants (8-1)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, moderate wind, temperature in upper 40’s

 

PiRate:         Giants by 4

Mean:           Giants by 5

Bias:             Giants by 5

Vegas:        Giants by 7        -290/+245

Ov/Un:        41½

Strategy:     Baltimore +17 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +20 in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser 

Could this Baltimore team be as good as the one that won the Super Bowl eight years ago?  That 2000 Ravens team was only 5-4 after nine games, and their offense was averaging just 15.6 points per game.  True, their defense was yielding less than 11 points per game at that time.  This Ravens team is 6-3 with a potent offense averaging 33.5 points per game in the last four weeks.  The defense is not comparable to the champion defense of 2000, but Ray Lewis and company can still get the job done; Baltimore is giving up just 16.7 points per game.

 

Can the Ravens win on the road against the 8-1 defending Super Bowl Champs?  Yes, they can, but don’t risk losing money on that chance.  Feel confident that they will at the very least keep this game within two touchdowns. The Giants have to cover a touchdown and adding 10 or 13 points onto that gives them an almost impossible task.  New York could win this game by 10 points, and they could be extended until late in the fourth quarter with the game on the line.  Baltimore could win.  Playing the Ravens in the teasers wins in all three circumstances.

 

I like teasing the Over here as well.  Joe Flacco is giving Matt Ryan a good battle for rookie supremacy.  Having three quality running backs on hand takes the heat off him.  While I don’s see the Ravens striking for 30 points this week, I do see them topping 20.  So, I like teasing the Over as well.

 

Houston (3-6) at Indianapolis (5-4)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome likely to be closed, but if it is open: Mostly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the low to mid 40’s.

 

PiRate:         Indianapolis by 9

Mean:           Indianapolis by 8

Bias:             Indianapolis by 9

Vegas:         Indianapolis by 7½ -340/+310  

Ov/Un:        50

Strategy:     Indianapolis -340 (as part of money line parlay), Indianapolis +2½ in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis +5½ in 13-point teaser, Over 40 in 10-point teaser, Over 37 in 13-point teaser    

The Colts find themselves one game behind the wildcard leaders with seven weeks to go, but it is my opinion that they will finish the season as strong as they have finished in prior years.  They could easily win 10 or 11 games, especially if Tennessee has nothing to play for on the final weekend.

 

Houston’s three week rise came to a crash in Minneapolis two weeks ago, and the Texans are headed nowhere this year.  They gave up 31 points to Peyton Manning and company in their first meeting, and number 18 could easily top that mark in this game.

 

I’m going with the Colts to win this game, but I do not like the 7½ point spread.  So, I will include Indianapolis in my money line parlays and my teasers.  The Over could be topped by the Colts’ offense alone when you tease it.

 

Chicago (5-4) at Green Bay (4-5)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Snow showers, strong wind, temperature in the mid 30’s

 

PiRate:         Tossup

Mean:          Green Bay by 3

Bias:            Tossup

Vegas:         Green Bay by 4½     -210/+180  

Ov/Un:        44½

Strategy:     Chicago +14½ in 10-point teaser, Chicago +17½ in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 13-point teaser

As I write this Wednesday afternoon, it is unsure whether Kyle Orton will be able to go for the Bears this week.  Orton makes a huge difference over Rex Grossman.  So, I cannot recommend any plays here until it is known who will be under center for Chicago.  The above strategy applies only if Orton will play.

 

On the other side of the field, Aaron Rodgers is still nursing a sore shoulder.  He cannot throw the deep ball with the same zip he could when healthy.

 

Philadelphia (5-4) at Cincinnati (1-8)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Clouds giving away to sun, moderate wind, temperature in the low to mid 40’s

 

PiRate:         Philadelphia by 15

Mean:           Philadelphia by 13

Bias:             Philadelphia by 11

Vegas:        Philadelphia by 9½         -385/+355  

Ov/Un:        41½

Strategy:     Cincinnati +19½ in 10-point teaser, Cincinnati +22½ in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser  

Cincinnati had the week off, while the Eagles played the Giants in a crucial game.  There could be a small case made that the Bengals were in a great position to pull off a big upset this week.

 

Carson Palmer is still not able to play, and that will keep the Bengals from pulling out a second consecutive win.  However, Cincinnati has all the other breaks in their favor, and I think they will compete in this game.  The Eagles have too much talent to lose in what is certainly a must-win game for them.  I am looking at a 31-17 win for Philly, but I won’t give 9½ points to the home team in this game.

 

New Orleans (4-5) at Kansas City (1-8)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, moderate wind, temperature in the low to mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         New Orleans by 8

Mean:           New Orleans by 6

Bias:             New Orleans by 6

Vegas:        New Orleans by 5½        -240/+200  

Ov/Un:        49½

Strategy:     Kansas City +15½ in 10-point teaser, Kansas City +18½ in 13-point teaser, Over 36½ in 13-point teaser     

The Chiefs keep coming up with surprisingly good games when you least expect it from them.  Half of their losses could have gone the other way.  New Orleans qualifies as a team the Chiefs can scare the daylights out of before losing late.

 

Drew Brees is on pace to smash the all time passing yardage record for a single season; at the rate he is going, he will top 5,300 yards.  He is averaging more than 40 passing attempts per game, but he may get a small break this week.  Reggie Bush could return to action to help take the heat off the passing game, and the Chiefs are giving up more than 170 rushing yards per game at an average of more than five yards per attempt.

 

I am going with the Chiefs in a Teaser because I don’t believe New Orleans can hold them under 20 points.  The Saints may control the ball on the ground more this week, and it may lead them to winning 28-20 rather than 37-32.

 

Detroit (0-9) at Carolina (7-2)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         Carolina by 22

Mean:          Carolina by 16

Bias:             Carolina by 22

Vegas:         Carolina by 14          -800/+650

Ov/Un:        39½

Strategy:     Carolina -800 (as part of money line parlay), Carolina -4 in 10-point teaser, Carolina -1 in 13-point teaser, Over 29½ in 10-point teaser, Over 26½ in 13-point teaser 

Detroit has Daunte Culpepper tossing the pigskin now, but I don’t expect much difference in the results of Lions’ games.  That said, Detroit has actually been much more competitive on the road than at home this season.  While I don’t see them scaring Carolina this week, I would not be surprised to see the Lions covering the two touchdown spread this week.

 

Jake Delhomme had a terrible game last week in Oakland, and you can expect him to rebound this week.  He won’t have to throw the ball all over the field, and that should help him improve his accuracy.  Look for him to take advantage of some mismatches when the Lions try to throw the kitchen sink at him.  The Carolina ground game should top their 119 yards per game rushing average by at least 30 if not 50 yards.

 

I think Carolina has a 95% chance of winning this game and a 55% chance of winning by more than two touchdowns.  So, I am selecting the Panthers as part of a money line parlay, but I won’t take them and give 14 points to a team that has lost its most recent road games by four, seven, and two points.

 

Minnesota (5-4) at Tampa Bay (6-3)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, moderate wind, temperature in mid to upper 60’s

 

PiRate:         Tampa Bay by 6

Mean:          Tampa Bay by 4

Bias:             Tampa Bay by 5

Vegas:         Tampa Bay by 3        -185/+165

Ov/Un:        38½

Strategy:     Tampa Bay -3, Tampa Bay -185, Tampa Bay +7 in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +10 in 13-point teaser, Over 28½ in 10-point teaser, Over 25½ in 13-point teaser    

The Vikings have a chance to take command in the NFC North if they can pull off the mild upset, and Green Bay beats Chicago.  If they lose, then they will be on the outside looking in.  The Vikings’ schedule is tricky the rest of the way, and I don’t believe they will win the division if they are 5-5 after this week.

 

Tampa Bay is a team that could be great but seems to always misfire in one area.  When their offense plays well, their defense seems to slip.  A great defensive performance seems to coincide with difficulty with their offense.  Therefore, almost all of their games are nip and tuck affairs that go to the final gun.

 

Things could be looking up for Tampa Bay starting this week.  Cadillac Williams has been activated, and he should play some this week.  If he can run the ball five times for 20 yards, it could allow Earnest Graham to rest just enough to keep him effective.

 

The weather is going to be ideal for football, and I look for the home team to move to 7-3.  I’m going with the Bucs giving three, on the money line, and in the teasers.  The ideal weather should lead to both teams topping 20 points and definitely topping 17, which is good enough to win at both 10 and 13 point teasers.

 

 

St. Louis (2-7) at San Francisco (2-7)

Time:           4:05PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the low 70’s

 

PiRate:         San Francisco by 11

Mean:           San Francisco by 6

Bias:             San Francisco by 8

Vegas:        San Francisco by 7          -265/+245

Ov/Un:        45

Strategy:     St. Louis +17 in 10-point teaser, St. Louis +20 in 13-point teaser, Under 58 in 13-point teaser   

Personally, I am fed up with the 49ers.  A head football coach once denigrated his team publicly by saying they didn’t know how to win; that applied aptly to this team.  Even facing the lowly Rams, I am hesitant to pick the 49ers to win this game.  Marc Bulger could torch the secondary and lead his team to a road win.  Should San Francisco figure out a way to win this game, I cannot see them doing so by double digits.  Therefore, I believe that taking those dreadful Rams in the teasers is one of the best selections of the week.  I have added the Under 58 teaser option only as a last choice to fill out a 13-point parlay.  My guess at the final score will be something like 24-21 to 28-21 with both teams having about a 50-50 chance of winning.  Having Steven Jackson back for the Rams is my insurance policy on this pick.

 

Arizona (6-3) at Seattle (2-7)

Time:           4:05PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Cloudy, light wind, temperature near 55

 

PiRate:         Arizona by 8

Mean:           Arizona by 5

Bias:             Arizona by 7

Vegas:        Arizona by 3      -140/+130       

Ov/Un:        47½

Strategy:     Seattle +13 in 10-point teaser, Seattle +16 in 13-point teaser

This is a serious trap game this week.  Seattle is primed to pull off a big shocker, and even if they fall short, I believe the Seahawks have a great chance at covering if you give them an extra 10 or 13 points.

 

Arizona had a Monday night game, and they will be traveling 1,500 miles north on short rest.  More importantly, it looks like Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch will both play this week, and that makes Seattle seven to 10 points better offensively.

 

Tennessee (9-0) at Jacksonville (4-5)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, moderate wind, temperature falling from 60 to the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:         Tennessee by 8

Mean:          Tennessee by 4

Bias:            Tennessee by 7

Vegas:         Tennessee by 3        -145/+125

Ov/Un:        39½

Strategy:     Jacksonville +13 in 10-point teaser, Jacksonville +16 in 13-point teaser, Over 29½ in 10-point teaser, Over 26½ in 13-point teaser

The first time these teams played, it was the opening week of the season.  Vince Young threw two interceptions, and the Titans appeared to be on their way to an 0-1 start.  Then, Young buried his head on the bench and almost did not go back in the game.  A couple plays later, he suffered a sprained knee, and Kerry Collins entered the game.  He quickly tossed a touchdown pass, and the Titans began their 9-0 start with a revived offense.

 

Jacksonville was supposed to have an offense that could not be stopped or contained.  Instead, the Jaguars have looked inept some weeks.  Losses to Cleveland and Cincinnati have ruined their chances for making the playoffs this season.  Beating Tennessee would be their big game of the year.  Tennessee has been their nemesis through the years, and an upset over their hated rival would make their season.

 

This game has been moved to 4:15 for national television, and I am expecting the motivated Jags to come out and make this game a hard-fought war for 60 minutes.  It could come down to a last play field goal attempt to decide it all.  Even if it goes to overtime, and the highest spread possible becomes six points, it won’t be enough to hurt us if we take Jacksonville in the teasers.  I am also teasing the totals here, because in the twenties, it isn’t asking that much for the teams to do.  A special teams or defensive big play could add an extra touchdown to the final score.

 

San Diego (4-5) at Pittsburgh (6-3)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Snow flurries and possible snow showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping through the 30’s

 

PiRate:         Pittsburgh by 9

Mean:           Pittsburgh by 7

Bias:             Pittsburgh by 6

Vegas:        Pittsburgh by 4        -225/+185

Ov/Un:        43

Strategy:     Pittsburgh -225, Pittsburgh +6 in 10-point teaser, Pittsburgh +9 in 13-point teaser

I almost picked the Steelers to cover the spread without the use of a teaser in this game, and I think if the snow is anything more than flurries, Pittsburgh will win by more than a touchdown.

 

San Diego is another one of those West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone, and like I wrote above, no West Coast team has won a game in the Eastern Time Zone this year.

 

I am of the belief that Norv Turner is an excellent offensive coordinator who does not get the most out of his talent as a head coach.  San Diego is a bigger disappointment this year than Cleveland or Dallas.  I really cannot see them winning this game, and at 4-6, Turner’s seat will begin to heat up.  Pittsburgh has lost their last two home games, and I look for that to change this week.  Call it a 20-14 home win in Steeltown.

 

Dallas (5-4) at Washington (6-3)

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature falling from the upper to lower 40’s

                    

PiRate:         Washington by 2

Mean:           Washington by 2

Bias:             Washington by 2

Vegas:        Tossup         -120/+110

Ov/Un:        43½

Strategy:     Dallas +10 in 10-point teaser, Dallas +13 in 13-point teaser, Over 33½ in 10-point teaser, Over 30½ in 13-point teaser 

This is a great rivalry game.  You can throw out the past when these two teams hook up.  The Redskins won in Texas Stadium, but that means little in their chances to go for the sweep.

 

What does mean a lot in deciding this week’s outcome is the status of some key personnel on both sides of the ball.  For Dallas, it revolves around Tony Romo and Felix Jones.  What kind of performance will they be able to display?  For Washington, it looks like Clinton Portis will not play, while Santana Moss plays at less than 100%.  Portis cannot be replaced, and the Cowboys will concentrate their efforts on stopping the Redskin passing attack.

 

I like Dallas’s chances of getting revenge in this game and throwing the NFC East into a three-way tie for second place at 6-4.  If the Cowboys lose, then it is highly unlikely that they will recover to make it in the playoffs as a wildcard team.  So, I am taking the visitors in the teasers.  I believe the final score will be somewhat similar to the final score the first time, only with the Cowboys winning. 

 

Cleveland (3-6) at Buffalo (5-4)

Time:           8:30PM EST Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Snow showers, moderate to strong winds, temperature holding steady in the low 30’s

 

PiRate:         Buffalo by 2

Mean:           Buffalo by 2

Bias:             Buffalo by 6

Vegas:        Buffalo 6     -225/+185

Ov/Un:        41½  

Strategy:     Buffalo -225, Cleveland +16 in 10-point teaser, Cleveland +19 in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser 

What a great time for a Monday night game near the snow capital of the lower 48!  Buffalo should be a winter wonderland as ESPN comes on the air for this game.  Snowfall can be a good friend to those who play teasers.  It tends to even out the score when there is a possible mismatch, and it tends to lead to turnovers that produce points.  It doesn’t have to be bitter cold or a blizzard to affect a game.  Try fielding a high punt in the lights when snow is falling.  It isn’t easy. 

 

So, that is why I am actually teasing the Over and not the Under in this game.  Of course, with Monday night games comes higher scoring, as can be attested by this year’s average Monday night score of 34-20.

 

Another Nice Winning Week Against The Spreads

 

Last week’s picks finished 9-4-0 adding $400 more to the bank account.  For the season, my picks against the spread are now 74-42-6 (63.8%).  The account balance is $2,065.  For the year, my Return on investment is 16.9%.

 

The money line parlay I selected last week produced a winning wager, and I will try using that again this week.  Thanks to the ending off bye weeks for the season, we have 16 games per week for the remainder of the regular season.

 

Last week, I played a little defensively due to weather and injury issues.  This week will only see those factors become more important.

 

Here are my wagers for week 11 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):

 

1. Tampa Bay -3 vs. Minnesota

2. Pittsburgh -4 vs. San Diego

3. Buffalo -225 vs. Cleveland

4. Tampa Bay -185 vs. Minnesota

5. Pittsburgh -225 vs. San Diego

 

6. Money Line Parlay (-130)

       A. Miami over Oakland

       B. Indianapolis over Houston

       C. Carolina over Detroit

 

7. Money Line Parlay (+220)

       A. Buffalo over Cleveland

       B. Tampa Bay over Minnesota

       C. Pittsburgh over San Diego

 

8. 10-point Teaser

       A. Miami -½ vs. Oakland

       B. Indianapolis +2½ vs. Houston

       C. Jacksonville +13 vs. Tennessee

 

9. 10-point Teaser

       A. Kansas City +15½ vs. New Orleans

       B. Tampa Bay +7 vs. Minnesota

       C. St. Louis +17 vs. San Francisco

 

10. 10-point Teaser

A. Pittsburgh +6 vs. San Diego

       B. Dallas +10 vs. Washington

       C. Cleveland & Buffalo Over 31½

 

11. 13-point Teaser

       A. Chicago +17½ vs. Green Bay

       B. Miami +2½ vs. Oakland

       C. Baltimore +20 vs. New York Giants

       D. Indianapolis +5½ vs. Houston

 

12. 13-point Teaser

       A. Jacksonville +16 vs. Tennessee

       B. Kansas City +18½ vs. New Orleans

       C. Carolina -1 vs. Detroit

       D. Tampa Bay +10 vs. Minnesota

 

13. 13-point Teaser

       A. St. Louis +20 vs. San Francisco

       B. Seattle +16 vs. Arizona

       C. Pittsburgh +9 vs. San Diego

       D. Dallas +13 vs. Washington

 

14. 13-point Teaser

       A. Cleveland & Buffalo Over 28½

       B. Denver & Atlanta Over 37½

       C. Miami & Oakland Over 25

       D. Jacksonville & Tennessee Over 26½

 

15. 13-point Teaser

       A. Denver & Atlanta Under 63½

       B. Carolina & Detroit Over 26½

       C. Tampa Bay & Minnesota Over 25½

       D. Dallas & Washington Over 30½           

     

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

AFC South Preview

AFC South Preview

 

With this preview, I will reveal the PiRate Ratings for each of the four teams in the AFC South Division.  Following those ratings are the Mean Ratings and my own biased opinion (last year’s final PiRate Rating combined with how much stronger or weaker I personally think each team is compared to last season).  That will give you three different ratings for the teams.

 

When all three ratings predict the same side to win a game against the spread, then that is a playable line.  If all three ratings agree on the winner of the game, and the Las Vegas Line is single digits, then that becomes a playable game on the Money line.  The reason for not playing any double digit spreads is that the Money line odds would be too prohibitive for a double digit favorite, where just one loss could result in a losing season.  During the season, I will also supply a list of games to be played with an imaginary bank account.

 

The predicted records are not tied to the PiRate or Mean Ratings; they are strictly from my biased ratings.

 

I expect 2008 to have a changing of the guard at the top of the division.  Indianapolis has dominated the South Division since its inception, and I believe Jacksonville is poised to take over the top spot this season.  The Colts should still easily make the playoffs as a wildcard, while the Titans and Texans beat up on teams outside the division and threaten to make this two straight years with no losing record in the division.

 

Houston Texans
PiRate	99.0
Mean	97.5
Biased	97.3
Run Offense	D
Pass Offense	B+
Run Defense	B-
Pass Defense	C
Special Teams	A
Predicted Record	7-9

Offense: Matt Schaub is a better than average quarterback, but he has never played a full 16 games in any season.  Backup Sage Rosenfels plays just as competently as Schaub, so there isn’t much difference in who plays under center.  The big problem is an anemic running game.  Ahman Green is well past his prime, and Chris Brown is an injury waiting to happen.  Look for the Texans to finish under 100 yards per game in the rushing department.  The receivers are competent but not fantastic.  Kevin Johnson and Andre Walter aren’t game-breakers, but they aren’t chopped liver either.  They will get open and catch passes, but don’t expect fancy yards per catch numbers.

 

Defense: The defense will progress as long as end Mario Williams continues to play like he did last year.  Williams proved worthy of his being the first pick in the 2005 draft when he recorded 14 sacks and proved to be almost as good against the run last year.  The secondary is a question, and lack of an adequate back line will prevent this team from taking a step forward. 

 

Special Teams: When you have a player who returned three kicks for touchdowns the year before, you have to take notice.  Andre Davis cannot possibly repeat that feat again this year, but he is likely to force opponents to alter their regular kickoff strategy.  That will give the Texans good starting field position.  Kicker Kris Brown has a strong and accurate leg, and he can win a game with a 55-yard field goal.  Punter Matt Turk is more effective due to an outstanding coverage team

 

Summary: Houston may take a small step backward this year.  With little running game support, teams will sell out and go hard at the Texan quarterbacks.  It won’t be a return to the David Carr days, but it will mean a losing record.

 

Indianapolis Colts
PiRate	110.9
Mean	106.7
Biased	102.6
Run Offense	B
Pass Offense	A
Run Defense	B
Pass Defense	B
Special Teams	C
Predicted Record	10-6

Offense: Peyton Manning is still one of the best quarterbacks of all time, but this will be a down year for him.  Never much of a scrambler, he will be even less mobile this year on the heels of minor surgery to repair an infected bursa sac in his left knee.  Throw in the fact that his center for most of his time in the NFL, Jeff Saturday, is out with an MCL injury to his knee, and the Colts actually have an offensive liability of sorts this year.  While Indy won’t all of a sudden look like the Chiefs, this offense will score fewer points this season than it has in many years.  Look for a drop down to about 385 points.

 

Defense: The Colts’ defense is usually overlooked due to the powerful offense, but this year, the stop troops may be forced to dominate to win a couple of those tough games against playoff-quality opponents.  There is a concern at the beginning of the year with the defensive line, as three starters (tackle Raheem Brock and ends Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney) begin the season with injuries in their legs.  The secondary is terrific, but they may have to defend a bit longer on passing plays this year if the pass rush fails to get to the quarterback.

 

Special Teams: The Colts are not strong here.  Kicker Adam Vinateri suffered through his worst season last year, failing to make even one field goal of 40 yards or more.  Whether that was an aberration or a sign of decline is still to be determined.  Punter Hunter Smith is run-of-the-mill.  T.J. Rushing has the potential to be a game-breaker in the return games.

 

Summary: Many teams would be ecstatic with a 10-6 record, but if the Colts fall to this mark, it will be a disappointment.  After many years of 12, 13, or 14 wins, I see Indianapolis dropping to 10-6 and having to play as a wildcard in the playoffs.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars
PiRate	108.8
Mean	105.6
Biased	103.3
Run Offense	A-
Pass Offense	B
Run Defense	B
Pass Defense	B
Special Teams	B+
Predicted Record	11-5

Offense: David Garrard is an underrated passer who will start to get more recognition this season.  Garrard plays intelligently, never forcing a pass when another option is available.  He may not put up the numbers that Brady, Romo, or Peyton Manning puts up, but he gets the job done.  Jacksonville should top 400 points for the second year in a row.  There are some troubles in the receiving corps at the beginning of the season with injuries to Jerry Porter and Reggie Williams, but once they are healthy, this will be a solid but not spectacular group.  The running game should be stable and consistent with quality depth.  Fred Taylor will top 1,000 yards again if he stays healthy, while backup Maurice Jones-Drew has the potential to gain 1,000 yards if he gets more touches.

 

Defense: The Jaguars will be considerably better defensively this year, and that is why they have a shot at the Super Bowl.  I expect the stop troops to respond positively to new coordinator Gregg Williams and his pressure defense.  A healthier John Henderson will team with ends Paul Spicer and Reggie Hayward to make a formidable front line.  The second line of defense is top-rate, and the trio should thrive in the new system.  If middle linebacker Mike Peterson can play a full 16 games, the Jags could win 12 or even 13 games.  Jacksonville has a pair of fine cornerbacks leading the secondary.  Rashean Mathis and Brian Williams force passes away from their area.

 

Special Teams: This isn’t necessarily a strong unit, but they won’t lose games for the team either.  Kicker Josh Scobee is more-than-adequate but not among the league’s elite.  Punter Adam Podlesh is good at pooch punting the ball inside the opponents’ 20 yard line, but I expect he will have fewer chances to do so this year.  Jones-Drew will cause opposing kickoff coverages to fret.

 

Summary: The Jags may repeat with an 11-5 record this year, but I expect 11 wins to be good enough to win the division.  Additionally, this team may be better equipped to handle the playoffs.  While San Diego and New England will be favored over them, the Jags are a challenger for AFC supremacy this year.

 

Tennessee Titans
PiRate	99.4
Mean	99.5
Biased	98.6
Run Offense	B
Pass Offense	C-
Run Defense	B
Pass Defense	B
Special Teams	B-
Predicted Record	7-9

Offense: This is a team of ifs.  If Vince Young can become another version of Donovan McNabb rather than Bobby Douglass, the Titans have a chance to go places.  However, it’s a big if.  In the preseason, Young failed to lead the first team on any touchdown drives in the four games.  His passes were off target with regularity.  The next if is with the running game.  If rookie Chris Johnson proves to be a breakaway back and can supplement the power running of LenDale White, the Titans can set up the pass with their running game, especially if Young can take off on some long scrambles.  The receiving corps is nothing special, but Alge Crumpler, Justin Gage, and Justin McCareins will get open in the short to medium routes.

 

Defense: One player can make a difference, and it showed just how the Titans relied on him last year.  With tackle Albert Haynesworth in the lineup, Tennessee went 10-3 last year.  Without him, they were 0-3 and allowed double the amount of rushing yardage per game.  Jevon Kearse returns to his original team replacing Antwan Odom.  The linebacking unit features Keith Bulluck, one of the more underrated players in the league.  The secondary is good but not great.  Michael Griffin has the potential to be an all-pro safety, but he has to learn to play in control.

 

Special Teams: Kicker Rob Bironas was the top offensive weapon in 2007, and he enters the 2008 season with an injured groin.  Punter Craig Hentrich is starting to show signs of age, but he is still serviceable.  The Titans missed Pacman Jones last year (at least on the field), and they are looking for new blood to infuse their return game.

 

Summary: With two solid teams in the same division and an up and coming rival in their former city, the Titans are not going to repeat as an AFC Wildcard team this year.  Tennessee will struggle to reach .500 this season.  Young must step up and become a passing threat this year, or this team is headed for some rough times in the years ahead.