Selections Against The Spread–November 6, 2015

Due to time constraints this week, the PiRates were not able to put out their selections on Thursday. Here are their picks for the weekend.

 

PiRate	Selections	For	Nov. 6-7, 2015
Home	Visitor	Line	Our Pick
UTEP	Rice	-6.5	Rice
West Virginia	Texas Tech	8	Texas Tech
Georgia St.	UL-Lafayette	-1.5	UL-Lafayette
Indiana	Iowa	-7	Indiana
Florida	Vanderbilt	21	Florida
Houston	Cincinnati	8.5	Cincinnati
Massachusetts	Akron	-2.5	Akron
Northwestern	Penn St.	2.5	Penn St.
Colorado	Stanford	-16.5	Colorado
Clemson	Florida St.	11.5	Florida St.
Alabama	LSU	7	LSU
Middle Tennessee	Marshall	3	Marshall
N. Y. Jets	Jacksonville	7.5	Jacksonville
New Orleans	Tennessee	7.5	New Orleans
New England	Washington	14	New England
Indianapolis	Denver	-4.5	Denver
Dallas	Philadelphia	-2.5	Philadelphia

Selections Against The Spread–September 24-28, 2015

Today, we expand our fun nonsense with three different types of selections to lose you money quicker than if you throw it away playing one weekend fantasy games.  Before you throw away good money thinking you can be that one person in 20 million that makes a million dollars, and before you decide to lose it in the conventional way by playing the stock market, consider losing it this much more entertaining way.

Pardon us whilst we remove tongues from cheeks.

Seriously, just remember that these selections are worth less than what you pay for them.  Use these only as something to either endorse your prior beliefs of convince you to pocket that extra change in your wallet and buy some nice flowers for your utmost.

Today, we have decided to go with five sides picks, seven 10-point teasers, and one stupendous Money Line parlay.

Did we mention this: DO NOT use these picks as your guide to lose all your money this weekend.  How much will the PiRates wager this weekend?  A big fat 0.  We have chosen to go the flowers route; the payoff is so wonderful.

 

Sides

Home	Visitor	Line	Our Pick
Syracuse	LSU	24.5	Syracuse
Carolina	New Orleans	3	Carolina
N. Y. Giants	Washington	3	N. Y. Giants
Baltimore	Cincinnati	2.5	Baltimore
Cleveland	Oakland	3	Cleveland

10-Point Teasers

	Home	Visitor	Teaser	Pick
1	Washington	California	-14	Washington
	Baylor	Rice	44.5	Rice
	Charlotte	Florida Atlantic	-21.5	Charlotte
2	Syracuse	LSU	-34.5	Syracuse
	Michigan	BYU	15.5	BYU
	Kentucky	Missouri	12.5	Missouri
3	Virginia	Boise St.	7.5	Boise St.
	Notre Dame	Masachusetts	19	Notre Dame
	Ole Miss	Vanderbilt	15	Ole Miss
4	Dallas	Atlanta	10	Atlanta
	Carolina	New Orleans	-7	Carolina
	St. Louis	Pittsburgh	10	Pittsburgh
5	Miami	Buffalo	12.5	Buffalo
	N. Y. Giants	Washington	-7	N. Y. Giants
	Houston	Tampa Bay	-3	Houston
6	Seattle	Chicago	25.5	Chicago
	New England	Jacksonville	4.5	New England
	Baltimore	Cincinnati	12.5	Cincinnati
7	Cleveland	Oakland	-7	Cleveland
	Green Bay	Kansas City	-2.5	Green Bay
	Minnesota	San Diego	11	San Diego

Money Line Parlay

For those two or three of you that have read this far and do not know what a Money Line parlay is, we will tell you, but we will also wonder why you have read this far in the first place.

The Money Line allows you to select the winner of a particular game without having to worry about a point spread.  However, since it is obvious that the favorite has a better chance to win the game than the underdog, you must pay a premium when you select the favorite to win the game.  For example, this week New England is an overwhelming favorite to beat Jacksonville.  The Money Line allows you to wager on New England to win the game by just one point and return money to you.  However, the Money Line odds for this game at most Las Vegas books is: New England -1400 and Jacksonville +800.  What this means is for every $1,400 you wager on New England at -1400, you can win $100 more than you wager.  So, if you put down $1,400 on New England on a Money Line wager, you receive $1,500 if New England wins (Your original $1,400 plus $100 profit, which is a return on your investment of 7.1%).  If you believe Jacksonville will upset the Patriots in Foxboro on Sunday and wager just $100 on the Jaguars to win the game, you stand to receive $900 (Your original $100 plus $800 profit) if Jacksonville wins.

A Money Line Parlay allows you to combine multiple games into one wager.  Let’s say that you have 3 favorites you believe will all win and feel confident enough to lay down cash for one combined wager.  For an example let’s use a possible 4-team Money Line Parlay for Sunday.

Houston is currently -280 vs. Tampa Bay

New England is currently -1400 vs. Jacksonville

Seattle is currently -1600 vs. Chicago

Green Bay is currently -320 vs. Kansas City

If you believe Houston, New England, Seattle, and Green Bay are certain winners and combine these four games into one wager, our parlay calculator says that for every $100 you wager, you will get back $203 (Your original $100 plus $103 profit) if the four teams all win.  If just one of the four loses or ties, then you lose your $100.

Just for fun, what if you think New England and Seattle will win with 100% belief in your mind?  What if you combine -1400 and -1600 into one wager?  The payout on $100 wagered would be just $114.  That is obviously a 14% return on your investment.  Now remember that in your mind this is 100% winnable.  Where else can you return 14% on an investment in one weekend?  Ah, this is why there are so many broke individuals in Las Vegas, and why the books and casinos can build new and improved versions every few years.  Who do you think wins the majority of these wagers?

Now that you have been warned, here is our super-duper 8-team Money Line Parlay for this week.  This returns at a rate slightly better than 3-2 if it wins.  For every $100 you wager on this parlay, if all eight teams win, your return is $251 (Your original $100 plus $151 profit).

And, here it is:

Money Line Parlay	8-team Parlay	3-2 odds	$151 payout for $100
Favorite	Underdog	Odds	Must Win
Nebraska	Southern Miss.	-1400	Nebraska
Houston	Texas St.	-800	Houston
Penn St.	San Diego St.	-800	Penn St.
Western Kentucky	Miami (O)	-1150	West Virginia
Georgia Southern	Idaho	-750	Georgia Southern
South Carolina	Central Florida	-650	South Carolina
Oregon	Utah	-500	Oregon
Northwestern	Ball St.	-1200	Northwestern

Did we mention that we strongly advise you not to wager real money on any of our recommendations?  Consider how much you paid for this information.  The sharpest of the sharp bettors make consistent profit during football season.  Do they look at our recommendations?  Okay, Billy, if you are reading this, please let us know.

Selections Against The Spread–September 17-21, 2015

Usually, when we look at a week and find that we like several different games, both straight up and via 10-point teasers, we are more than likely not finding fool’s gold.  Nevertheless, we are going to go all out and reveal the entire list.

What we concluded was that we liked nine different games straight up.  Afterwards, we looked at another seven teaser parlays.  If you are unfamiliar with what a “teaser” is, there are various point totals where you can move the line in your favor by that number of points.  The odds vary depending on the total points in your teaser.  We like 10-point teasers, because 10 points really affects the line, and when you play a 3-game parlay, the odds are about the same as playing sides.  It is called a “teaser” because it looks so easy to win these wagers, while in actuality, they are much harder to win than picking one team on a side or the totals of a game.  However, there are some mathematical wizards that have succeeded to the point where they cannot find a place to wager, because their teaser-picking accuracy is too high.  Note: We are mathematical lovers, not wizards.

 

Here are our Teaser Parlay Selections for September 17-21, 2015

10-point Teasers
	Home	Visitor	Teaser	Pick
1	Massachusetts	Temple	-0.5	Temple
	North Carolina	Illinois	19.5	Illinois
	New Mexico St.	UTEP	7.5	UTEP
2	Kansas St.	Louisiana Tech	-1	Kansas St.
	Purdue	Virginia Tech	4	Virginia Tech
	Syracuse	Central Michigan	-3.5	Syracuse
3	Penn St.	Rutgers	-0.5	Penn St.
	Miami (O)	Cincinnati	-8.5	Cincinnati
	North Texas	Rice	2.5	Rice
4	LSU	Auburn	17	Auburn
	Army	Wake Forest	4	Wake Forest
	Iowa	Pittsburgh	15.5	Pittsburgh
5	Minnesota	Detroit	13	Detroit
	Cleveland	Tennessee	10	Tennessee
	Kansas City	Denver	13	Denver
6	Buffalo	New England	9	New England
	Oakland	Baltimore	4	Baltimore
	Indianapolis	N. Y. Jets	-3	Indianapolis
7	Pittsburgh	San Francisco	-4	Pittsburgh
	Carolina	Houston	13	Houston
	Cincinnati	San Diego	-7	Cincinnati

 

Games Straight up for September 17-21, 2015

Home	Visitor	Line	Our Pick
Massachusetts	Temple	-10.5	Temple
North Carolina	Illinois	9.5	Illinois
Missouri	Connecticut	21.0	Missouri
Bowling Green	Memphis	-3.0	Memphis
Indiana	Western Kentucky	2.0	Western Kentucky
New Mexico St.	UTEP	-2.5	UTEP
Washington	Utah St.	5.5	Washington
Philadelphia	Dallas	5.0	Cowboys
Kansas City	Denver	3.0	Broncos

PiRate Picks For October 24-28, 2013

Keep Doing What Works

 

After a couple of topsy-turvy weeks that brought us some decent results, we are going to continue with what seems to be working best for us this year—teasers and money line parlays.  We are going to throw in a trio of 10-point teasers to go along with our specialty 13-point teasers, and we have a for the fun of it 15-team, 20-point teaser to throw in as a lark for those of you who know something about these special monster teasers.

 

COLLEGE

1. 13-point Teaser

Mississippi St. +2 vs. Kentucky

Middle Tennessee +22 ½ vs. Marshall

Ball St. +3 vs. Akron

Buffalo +13 vs. Kent St.

 

2. 13-point Teaser

Western Michigan +16 vs. Massachusetts

Boston College +20 vs. North Carolina

Virginia Tech – ½ vs. Duke

SMU – ½ vs. Temple

 

3. 13-point Teaser

Arizona -1 vs. Colorado

Auburn -11 vs. Florida Atlantic

Tulane +15 ½ vs. Tulsa

Michigan St. Pk. vs. Illinois

 

4. 13-point Teaser

Iowa +9 vs. Northwestern

UNLV +19 ½ vs. Nevada

Oregon St. +16 ½ vs. Stanford

Notre Dame -7 vs. Air Force

 

5. 13-point Teaser

North Texas +1 ½ vs. Southern Miss.

Missouri +10 ½ vs. South Carolina

Oklahoma St. Pk. vs. Iowa St.

Nebraska +2 ½ vs. Minnesota

 

6. Money Line Parlay @ -117

Ball St. over Akron

Virginia Tech over Duke

Arizona over Colorado

Notre Dame over Air Force

 

N F L

7. 10-point Teaser

Carolina + 3 ½ vs. Tampa Bay

San Francisco -6 ½ vs. Jacksonville

NY Giants +15 ½ vs. Philadelphia

 

8. 10-point Teaser

New Orleans -1 vs. Buffalo

New England +3 ½ vs. Miami

Pittsburgh +7 ½ vs. Oakland

 

9. 10-point Teaser

Denver -2 ½ vs. Washington

Atlanta + 11 ½ vs. Arizona

Seattle -1 vs. St. Louis

 

10. 13-point Teaser

Detroit +10 vs. Dallas

Kansas City + 5 ½ vs. Cleveland

NY Jets +19 ½ vs. Cincinnati

Minnesota +23 vs. Green Bay

 

11. 13-point Teaser

New Orleans & Buffalo OVER 36

Pittsburgh & Oakland OVER 27

Atlanta & Arizona OVER 32

Minnesota & Green Bay OVER 34

 

——————————————————

All in Good Fun 20-Point Monster Teaser (15-team parlay)

Ball St. +10 vs. Akron

Buffalo +20 vs. Kent St.

Western Michigan +20 vs. Massachusetts

Auburn -4 vs. Florida Atlantic

Tulane +22 ½ vs. Tulsa

UNLV +26 ½ vs. Nevada

Notre Dame Pk. vs. Air Force

North Texas +8 ½ vs. Southern Miss.

Oklahoma St. +7 vs. Iowa St.

Nebraska +9 ½ vs. Minnesota

Boston College +27 vs. North Carolina

Missouri +17 ½ vs. South Carolina

Mississippi St. +9 vs. Kentucky

Middle Tennessee +29 ½ vs. Marshall

Arizona +6 vs. Colorado

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 20-24, 2012

Will There Be 70?

Sunday, the University of Miami self-imposed a bowl ban, and with that the Hurricanes will not be eligible for the ACC Championship Game.

 

That brings to four the number of bowl eligible teams that will not be in bowls this year—Ohio State, Penn State, North Carolina, and Miami.

 

This presents a problem for the bowls.  With 35 bowls, 70 bowl-eligible teams are required.  As of today, only 63 teams are bowl eligible.  Additionally, Georgia Tech could now be looking at a 6-7 record if they lose to Georgia this week and Florida State in the ACC Championship Game next week.  The Yellow Jackets would be allowed to go bowling, just like UCLA last year.

 

Let’s take a look at the conference-by-conference bowl outlook.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Florida State is virtually assured of going to the Orange Bowl.  The Seminoles wrapped up the Atlantic Division title with a win over Maryland, who has started as many quarterbacks as they have jersey combinations.  FSU can play spoiler this week when they host rival Florida.  A win over the Gators could keep Florida out of a possible National Championship Game (Georgia would have to lose to Georgia Tech and beat Alabama, or Alabama would have to lose to Auburn and beat Georgia).

 

Clemson appeared to be a lock for a BCS at-large bowl bid if they beat South Carolina, but now that is not so certain.  In fact, it is unlikely, unless Oklahoma loses another game.  The Tigers must root for UCLA to pull off another upset and beat Stanford this week and then lose to Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game.  If Oregon isn’t in the Rose Bowl, they will be in another BCS Bowl, and that will not leave a bid for an 11-1 Clemson team.  Of course, CU has to beat South Carolina, and that is not a given.

 

North Carolina State is the only other bowl eligible team from the Atlantic Division.  Wake Forest is 5-6, and the Deacons must win at home against 7-4 Vanderbilt this week to become bowl eligible.  Vandy beat Wake last year 41-7.

 

With Miami and North Carolina both out of the picture, the ACC faces the same dilemma as the Big Ten.  The Coastal Division will send the number three team to the title game.  Georgia Tech will probably be 6-6 and playing in that game.

 

Duke is bowl eligible, and the Blue Devils are staring at a 6-6 record and four consecutive losses to end the regular season.  Virginia Tech is 5-6 and defeat Virginia this weekend to make it to a bowl.

 

If the Hokies and Deacons fail to win this week, and if Clemson sneaks into a BCS Bowl game, the ACC is going to fall four teams short in its bowl responsibilities.  That would force the Belk, Music City, Independence, and Military bowls to find at-large entries.  We think VT will win this week, while Wake Forest loses.  We are going to be generous to the ACC bowl tie-ins and say that Clemson will not receive a BCS at-large bowl bid.  That leaves the league just two bowls short this year.

 

Thanks to Under Armor, it looks like Maryland could be leaving the ACC for the Big Ten.  Will the Terps continue their trend of multiplicity?

 

BOWLS

1. BCS (Orange): Florida State

2. Chick-fil-A: Clemson

3. Russell Athletic: North Carolina St.

4. Sun: Georgia Tech

5. Belk: Virginia Tech

6. Music City: Duke

7. Independence: None Available

8. Military: None Available

 

Big East Conference

There are four bowl eligible teams for six bowl tie-ins, but at least the Big East still has a chance to fill the fifth and sixth bowls (we believe they will not fill those slots).

 

Rutgers and Louisville are the two contenders for the automatic BCS Bowl bid, and the winner of their November 29 game will become the last team chosen in the BCS Bowl pecking order (The Orange Bowl).  By the way, if Maryland leaves the ACC for the Big Ten, it looks like Rutgers will leave the Big East and join the Terps.

 

Cincinnati and Syracuse are the other two bowl eligible teams.  Syracuse is almost a lock to play in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium.  Connecticut, Pittsburgh, and Temple can still get to 6-6 and become bowl eligible, but we cannot see any of this trio winning out.  UConn finishes at Louisville and at home with Cincinnati.  Pitt hosts Rutgers and closes at South Florida.  Temple has the best chance, but the Owls have to upset Syracuse Friday and then hope they can get a waiver at 5-6 because they did not get to schedule a 12^th game.  Their proposed hastily-scheduled game against Hawaii was called off.

 

BOWLS

1. BCS (Orange): Rutgers

2. Russell Athletic: Louisville

3. Belk: Cincinnati

4. Pinstripe: Syracuse

5. BBVA Compass: None Available

6. Beef O’Brady’s: None Available

 

Big Ten Conference

Ohio State could still earn part of a national championship.  If the Buckeyes thrash Michigan this weekend, and then Notre Dame loses (and probably Alabama loses in the SEC Championship Game), Ohio State could earn the Associated Press National Championship.

 

The Rose Bowl will be just another game this year, because the best team will not be there.  At best, an 11-2 Nebraska team will represent the league.  At worst, an 8-5 Wisconsin team will sneak into Pasadena.

 

Along with the Cornhuskers and Badgers, Michigan, Northwestern, and Minnesota are bowl eligible.  Michigan State must win at Minnesota this week to become bowl eligible, and this is an iffy proposition.  Purdue must beat Indiana, and this is also an iffy proposition.  If both teams lose, then there is virtually no chance there will be 70 teams with 6-6 records or better.

 

BOWLS

1. BCS (Rose): Nebraska

2. Capital One: Michigan

3. Outback: Northwestern

4. Buffalo Wild Wings: Wisconsin

5. Gator: Michigan St.

6. Meineke Car Care of Texas: Minnesota

7. Heart of Dallas: Purdue

8. Little Caesar’s: None Available

 

Big 12 Conference

Ouch!  Kansas State was so close, and now they can only hope for a Fiesta Bowl bid.  The Wildcats must still beat Texas, and the Longhorns’ defense has improved a lot since the Oklahoma game.

 

Oklahoma will steal an at-large bid away from any non-SEC 11-1 teams if the Sooners beat Oklahoma State and TCU to finish 10-2.

 

With Baylor’s big upset, it looks like nine of the ten members will become bowl eligible.  However, it has not yet happened.  West Virginia has lost five games in a row after starting 5-0.  The Mountaineers still have games at Iowa State and at home against Kansas, and losing to the Jayhawks would be an astronomical upset.  Baylor plays Texas Tech at Cowboys Stadium and finishes at home against Oklahoma State.  We think the Bears will get that sixth win this weekend at the Jerry Dome.

 

BOWLS

1. BCS (Fiesta): Kansas St.

2. BCS At-Large (Sugar): Oklahoma

3. Cotton: Texas

4. Alamo: Oklahoma St.

5. Buffalo Wild Wings: Texas Tech

6. Holiday: T C U

7. Meineke Car Care of Texas: Baylor

8. Pinstripe: West Virginia

9. Heart of Dallas: Iowa St.

 

Conference USA

Tulsa beat Central Florida Saturday by two points, and it looks like the two teams will do it again in the CUSA Championship Game.  If UCF loses at home to UAB this week, and East Carolina beats Marshall, then ECU would win the East, but we give that about a 2% chance of happening.

 

Tulsa, UCF, and ECU are the only bowl eligible teams, but there are three 5-6 teams with a chance to become bowl eligible.  Marshall would have to win at ECU.  SMU would have to upset Tulsa.  Neither one of those scenarios looks all that promising.  However, the third team, Rice, has a legitimate shot to get their sixth win this week.  The Owls were given up for dead at 1-5 after losing to Memphis.  It was almost a given that Rice would be looking to make a coaching change.  Then, the Owls got hot.  They beat a decent UTSA team by 20 in a non-conference match, and then they gave Tulsa a real scare, losing late.  Since that loss, Rice has won three straight games, while averaging 43 points per game.  If the Owls beat UTEP this week, they are going bowling.

 

BOWLS

1. Liberty: Central Florida (beats Tulsa in a rematch)

2. Hawaii: Tulsa

3. Armed Forces: Rice

4. Beef O’Brady’s: East Carolina

5. New Orleans: None Available

 

Independents

Notre Dame could not ask for a better setup.  The Irish are one win away from going to the National Championship Game, and they face a Southern Cal team that will not have Matt Barkley available.

 

Brigham Young and Navy are already set in their games.  Army is not bowl eligible this year, so there will be one more bowl looking for an at-large team.

 

BOWLS

1. BCS (National Championship Game): Notre Dame

2. Poinsettia: Brigham Young (has already accepted this bid)

3. Kraft Fight Hunger: Navy (has already accepted this bid)

4. Military: None Available

 

Mid-American Conference

With Miami of Florida dropping out of the bowl picture, the MAC could now send an unheard of seven teams to bowls.  Six are already bowl eligible, and a seventh should become so this week.

 

Kent State and Northern Illinois have already clinched spots in the MAC Championship Game, and if Kent State wins, there is an outside shot that the Golden Flashes could sneak into the BCS Bowl picture.  Wisconsin or Georgia Tech would have to win a conference championship game, and then Kent State would have to move up to number 16 in the BCS rankings.  Kent State has games with Ohio U and Northern Illinois remaining and could move up a couple spots with wins in those games.  However, that would still leave them short.  The Flashes are number 23 in the BCS poll and would need losses from multiple teams including Boise State, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Michigan, Rutgers, UCLA, and Texas.

 

Outside of the top two in the MAC, Toledo, Bowling Green, Ohio U, and Ball State can pretty much make plans to play after December 20.  If Central Michigan upends UMass this week (which they should), the Chippewas could be the beneficiary of the seventh MAC bowl bid and become the only 6-6 at-large team available.

 

BOWLS

1. Little Caesar’s: Kent St.

2. GoDaddy.com: Toledo (gets bid over NIU which went there last year)

3. Famous Idaho Potato: Northern Illinois

4. BBVA Compass (at-large): Ball St.

5. Beef O’Brady’s (at-large): Ohio U

6. Military (at-large): Bowling Green

7. Independence (at-large): Central Michigan

 

Mountain West Conference

The MWC has five bowl tie-ins and five available teams.  Unfortunately, there will be no BCS at-large bowl bids available (although Boise State still has a remote chance).

 

We are more than likely looking at a three-way tie for the conference championship, so the MAACO Bowl can choose from among three teams.

 

BOWLS

1. MAACO: Boise St.

2. Poinsettia: Fresno St.

3. Hawaii: San Diego St.

4. Armed Forces: Air Force (has already accepted this bid)

5. New Mexico: Nevada

 

Pac-12 Conference

Oregon’s loss may be bittersweet for this league.  While the Ducks are almost assured of missing out of the national title game and possibly eliminated from the conference title game, they will get an at-large BCS Bowl bid.

 

If Stanford beats UCLA this week, they will play them again the following week for the Pac-12 title.  The winner of that game would earn the Rose Bowl, and Oregon would almost be a guarantee for the Fiesta Bowl.

 

Five other teams are bowl eligible.  Oregon State is looking at a 9-3 season, while Arizona and Washington could both be 8-4.  All three teams would move ahead of USC, which should finish 7-5.  Arizona State is the eighth Pac-12 bowl team.

 

BOWLS

1. BCS (Rose): Stanford

2. BCS At-large (Fiesta): Oregon

3. Alamo: UCLA

4. Holiday: Oregon St.

5. Sun: Arizona

6: MAACO: Washington

7. Kraft Fight Hunger: Southern Cal

8. New Mexico: Arizona St.

 

Southeastern Conference

It sounds like a horror movie, where you think the beast has been killed, but it always comes back for the sequel.  Yes, the winner of the Alabama-Georgia game is almost a lock to play in the National Championship Game.  And if the unthinkable happens and Notre Dame loses to Southern Cal, a Florida win over Florida State would put the Gators in the National Championship Game against the SEC Championship Game winner.  Can you imagine a Florida-Georgia title game?  It would be like Major League Baseball finding a way to put the Yankees and Red Sox in the World Series when both teams won 100 games.

 

The big question here is who gets the second BCS Bowl bid if Florida loses to Florida State and the Gators, LSU, and Texas A&M all have two losses?  Throw in South Carolina if the Gamecocks upend Clemson.

 

With Arkansas and Tennessee losing this past weekend, the SEC will not furnish enough teams to its allocated bowls.  Missouri and Ole Miss lost as well, and we don’t see both teams winning this week to become bowl eligible.  At best, just Ole Miss will get to 6-6 in an upset at home against Mississippi State.  If the Rebels lose, then we believe there will not be 70 bowl eligible teams when all is said and done.

 

BOWLS

1. BCS (National Championship Game): Alabama

2. BCS (Sugar): Texas A&M (If FSU beats UF, Johnny Football wins out)

3. Capital One: Georgia

4. Outback: Florida

5. Cotton: L S U

6. Chick-fil-A: South Carolina

7. Gator: Mississippi St.

8. Music City: Vanderbilt

9: Liberty: Ole Miss

10. BBVA Compass: None Available

11. Independence: None Available

 

Sunbelt Conference

It is now almost a given that this league will send five teams to bowls.  They have two automatic bowl tie-ins and two more supplemental bowl tie-ins, but in order to fit all 70 teams into bowls and not force teams from the same conference to play in a bowl, we think that one of those supplemental bowl tie-ins will defer to a tertiary bowl agreement and send an SBC team to another bowl altogether.  It sounds complicated, but here goes.

 

The champion goes to the New Orleans Bowl, and a second team goes to the GoDaddy.com Bowl.  The league has secondary bowl agreements with the Little Caesar’s and Beef O’Brady’s Bowls.  However, the MAC has a tertiary agreement with the Beef O’Brady’s Bowl, and in order to avoid two MAC teams from playing each other in a bowl, BOB Bowl will need to invite a MAC team over an SBC team.

 

Troy still has a chance to become bowl eligible at 6-6, if the Trojans can win at Middle Tennessee this week.  The Blue Raiders are still in contention for the SBC Championship; they face Arkansas State in Jonesboro in two weeks.

 

BOWLS

1. New Orleans: Arkansas St.

2. GoDaddy.com: UL-Monroe

3. Little Caesar’s (at-large): Middle Tennessee

4. Independence (at-large): UL-Lafayette

5. BBVA Compass (at-large): Western Kentucky

 

Western Athletic Conference

Louisiana Tech’s loss to Utah State removes the Bulldogs from any BCS at-large bowl talk as well as the conference championship bowl bid to the field of blue.  Utah State now gets the invitation to Boise.

 

San Jose State is the third bowl eligible team in the WAC’s final year as a football conference.  UT-San Antonio is deserving of a bowl if they defeat Texas State to finish 8-4.  There is a bylaw in the bowl rules that would allow UTSA to become bowl eligible as a first-year FBS member.  The Roadrunners would be ahead of any 5-7 teams if not enough teams win six games.  They would not take precedence over a 6-7 team, and the rules have not established how to handle a 5-6 Temple team.

 

BOWLS

1. Famous Idaho Potato: Utah St.

2. New Orleans (at-large): Louisiana Tech

3. Military (at-large): San Jose St.

 

Here are this week’s complete bowl projections.

 

Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC # 4/5	Nevada	Pac12 #7 / WAC	Arizona St.
Famous Idaho Potato	MAC #3	Northern Illinois	WAC #1/2	Utah St.
Poinsettia	MWC #2	Fresno St.	BYU/WAC	B Y U √
Beef O’Brady’s	Big East #6	(Ohio U)	C-USA #2-5 (4)	East Carolina
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	Arkansas St.	C-USA #2-5 (5)	(Louisiana Tech)
MAACO	MWC #1	Boise St.	Pac 12 #5	Washington
Hawaii	MWC #3/Hawaii	San Diego St.	C-USA #2-5 (2)	Tulsa
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8	(Middle Tenn.)	MAC #1	Kent St.
Military	ACC #8	(Bowling Green)	Army/CUSA	(San Jose St.)
Belk	ACC #5	Virginia Tech	Big East #3	Cincinnati
Holiday	Pac 12 #3	Oregon St.	Big 12 #5	T C U
Independence	ACC #6/7 (7)	(Central Michigan)	SEC #10	(UL-Lafayette)
Russell Athletic	Big East #2	Louisville	ACC #3	North Carolina St.
Meineke Car Care	Big 12 #6	Baylor	Big 10 #6	Minnesota
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	Rice	MWC #4-5	Air Force-√
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 12 #6	Southern Cal	Navy/ACC	Navy √
Pinstripe	Big East #4	Syracuse	Big 12 #7	West Va.
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Oklahoma St.	Pac 12 #2	U C L A
Buffalo Wild Wings	Big 12 #4	Texas Tech	Big 10 #4 or 5	Wisconsin
Music City	SEC # 7	Vanderbilt	ACC #6	Duke
Sun	ACC #4	Georgia Tech	Pac 12 #4	Arizona
Liberty	SEC#8-9/BigEast	Ole Miss	C-USA #1	Central Florida
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	South Carolina	ACC #2	Clemson
Heart of Dallas	Big 10 #7	Purdue	Big 12 #8	Iowa St.
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	Michigan St.	SEC #6	Mississippi St.
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Michigan	SEC #2	Georgia
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	Florida	Big 10 #3	Northwestern
Rose	BCS Pac12	Stanford	BCS Big 10	Nebraska
Orange	BCS ACC	Florida St.	BCS At-Large	Rutgers
Sugar	BCS SEC	Texas A&M	BCS At-Large	Oklahoma
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Kansas St.	BCS At-Large	Oregon
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Texas	SEC #3 or 4	L S U
BBVA Compass	Big East#5/CUSA	(Ball St.)	SEC #8 or 9	(Western Ky.)
GoDaddy.com	Sunbelt # 2	UL-Monroe	MAC #2	Toledo
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	Notre Dame	*** BCS #2 ***	Alabama
√ = Team has already accepted bowl invitation

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

 

PiRate Regular

P i R a t e
#	Team	PiRate
1	Alabama	132.0
2	Oregon	130.9
3	Kansas St.	127.5
4	Oklahoma	127.3
5	Texas A&M	127.0
6	Oklahoma St.	125.1
7	Notre Dame	124.4
8	L S U	124.4
9	Florida St.	124.1
10	Georgia	123.4
11	South Carolina	121.5
12	Clemson	121.1
13	Stanford	119.6
14	Texas	119.1
15	U S C	118.7
16	Florida	117.8
17	Oregon St.	116.2
18	Nebraska	115.9
19	U C L A	115.5
20	Baylor	115.3
21	Michigan	114.7
22	Ohio St.	114.5
23	Wisconsin	114.1
24	T C U	112.4
25	B Y U	112.2
26	Vanderbilt	111.4
27	Washington	111.0
28	West Virginia	110.8
29	Arizona	110.7
30	Mississippi St.	110.5
31	Iowa St.	110.3
32	Arizona St.	109.3
33	Penn St.	109.1
34	Michigan St.	109.1
35	Texas Tech	108.8
36	North Carolina	108.4
37	Missouri	108.4
38	Ole Miss	107.4
39	Tennessee	107.2
40	Rutgers	107.1
41	Utah	107.1
42	Northwestern	107.0
43	Georgia Tech	107.0
44	Boise St.	106.8
45	Central Florida	105.7
46	Tulsa	105.4
47	Syracuse	105.4
48	Utah St.	104.7
49	Northern Illinois	104.1
50	Fresno St.	104.0
51	Miami-FL	103.9
52	Louisiana Tech	103.9
53	Virginia Tech	103.6
54	North Carolina St.	103.3
55	Cincinnati	102.7
56	Louisville	101.9
57	San Jose St.	101.9
58	Pittsburgh	101.2
59	Arkansas	101.2
60	San Diego St.	100.2
61	Ball St.	100.0
62	California	99.6
63	Auburn	99.3
64	Purdue	99.1
65	Kent St.	98.4
66	Toledo	98.2
67	South Florida	97.8
68	Arkansas St.	97.7
69	Minnesota	97.4
70	Kansas	97.2
71	Duke	97.0
72	Iowa	96.4
73	Virginia	96.0
74	Boston College	95.9
75	Connecticut	95.8
76	Bowling Green	95.7
77	Louisiana-Monroe	95.3
78	UL-Lafayette	95.2
79	Nevada	94.9
80	S M U	94.8
81	Maryland	94.6
82	East Carolina	94.1
83	Indiana	93.0
84	Western Kentucky	92.4
85	Navy	92.1
86	Washington St.	92.0
87	Wake Forest	91.3
88	Rice	91.2
89	Illinois	90.3
90	Ohio U	90.2
91	Western Michigan	89.7
92	Temple	89.6
93	Kentucky	89.6
94	Houston	89.5
95	Troy	89.0
96	Air Force	88.8
97	U T E P	88.6
98	Marshall	88.2
99	Wyoming	87.9
100	Middle Tennessee	86.6
101	Buffalo	85.4
102	Central Michigan	85.0
103	North Texas	85.0
104	Florida International	84.5
105	Army	84.3
106	Miami (O)	84.0
107	Colorado St.	83.4
108	U A B	83.0
109	New Mexico	82.7
110	Southern Mississippi	82.6
111	UNLV	82.3
112	Eastern Michigan	81.7
113	Texas St.	80.1
114	Memphis	79.9
115	Florida Atlantic	79.9
116	Colorado	78.5
117	U T S A	77.1
118	Tulane	75.9
119	Hawaii	75.9
120	South Alabama	74.7
121	Idaho	73.7
122	Akron	72.8
123	New Mexico St.	72.2
124	Massachusetts	68.8

 

PiRate Vintage

V i n t a g e
#	Team	Vintage
1	Alabama	127.5
2	Georgia	127.0
3	Oregon	125.5
4	Notre Dame	125.0
5	Ohio St.	124.5
6	Stanford	124.5
7	Texas A&M	124.0
8	L S U	123.5
9	Florida St.	123.0
10	Florida	122.0
11	Kansas St.	121.5
12	Clemson	120.0
13	South Carolina	120.0
14	Nebraska	120.0
15	Oklahoma	120.0
16	Michigan	118.0
17	Oklahoma St.	117.0
18	Oregon St.	116.5
19	U C L A	116.5
20	Washington	114.5
21	Texas	114.0
22	Vanderbilt	113.5
23	Southern Cal	113.0
24	Penn St.	112.0
25	Northwestern	112.0
26	Mississippi St.	111.5
27	Wisconsin	111.5
28	B Y U	111.0
29	San Diego St.	110.5
30	Boise St.	109.5
31	T C U	109.0
32	Michigan St.	109.0
33	Rutgers	108.5
34	Arizona	108.5
35	Ole Miss	108.5
36	Baylor	108.0
37	Louisville	107.5
38	Fresno St.	107.5
39	North Carolina St.	107.5
40	Utah St.	107.0
41	West Virginia	106.0
42	Kent St.	105.5
43	Cincinnati	105.5
44	Miami	105.5
45	Arizona St.	105.5
46	Texas Tech	105.5
47	North Carolina	105.0
48	Georgia Tech	105.0
49	Virginia Tech	105.0
50	Missouri	105.0
51	Northern Illinois	104.5
52	Utah	104.5
53	Iowa St.	104.0
54	Syracuse	103.5
55	Louisiana Tech	103.5
56	San Jose St.	103.5
57	Tulsa	102.5
58	Central Florida	102.5
59	Arkansas	102.0
60	Minnesota	100.0
61	Nevada	100.0
62	Virginia	100.0
63	Arkansas St.	99.5
64	Bowling Green	99.0
65	Ball St.	99.0
66	Duke	98.5
67	Tennessee	98.5
68	Boston College	98.0
69	Purdue	97.5
70	Auburn	96.5
71	California	96.0
72	Toledo	95.5
73	Kansas	95.5
74	Navy	95.0
75	East Carolina	95.0
76	Pittsburgh	94.5
77	Wake Forest	94.5
78	Ohio U	94.0
79	Indiana	94.0
80	Temple	93.5
81	Maryland	93.5
82	UL-Lafayette	93.0
83	Middle Tennessee	93.0
84	UL-Monroe	92.5
85	Iowa	92.5
86	Illinois	92.5
87	Rice	92.0
88	Air Force	92.0
89	South Florida	92.0
90	Kentucky	92.0
91	Connecticut	91.0
92	S M U	90.0
93	Western Kentucky	89.5
94	Buffalo	88.5
95	Central Michigan	88.5
96	Troy	88.0
97	Wyoming	88.0
98	Colorado	88.0
99	Colorado St.	87.5
100	Marshall	87.0
101	Army	87.0
102	Washington St.	87.0
103	U T S A	86.5
104	U N L V	86.5
105	New Mexico	85.5
106	Miami (O)	85.5
107	Memphis	85.0
108	Texas St.	85.0
109	Houston	83.5
110	Western Michigan	83.5
111	U A B	83.0
112	U T E P	83.0
113	Eastern Michigan	82.0
114	Florida Int’l	81.5
115	Florida Atlantic	80.0
116	North Texas	78.0
117	Hawaii	78.0
118	Tulane	76.5
119	Massachusetts	76.5
120	South Alabama	75.5
121	Akron	75.5
122	Idaho	75.5
123	Southern Miss.	75.0
124	New Mexico St.	70.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Florida St.	7-1	10-1	124.1	123.0
Clemson	7-1	10-1	121.1	120.0
North Carolina St.	3-4	6-5	103.3	107.5
Boston College	1-6	2-9	95.9	98.0
Maryland	2-5	4-7	94.6	93.5
Wake Forest	3-5	5-6	91.3	94.5
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
North Carolina	4-3	7-4	108.4	105.0
Georgia Tech	5-3	6-5	107.0	105.0
Miami-FL	4-3	7-4	103.9	105.5
Virginia Tech	3-4	5-6	103.6	105.0
Duke	3-4	6-5	97.0	98.5
Virginia	2-5	4-7	96.0	100.0
Conference Means	104.24		103.85	104.6

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Rutgers	5-0	9-1	107.1	108.5
Syracuse	4-2	6-5	105.4	103.5
Cincinnati	3-2	7-3	102.7	105.5
Louisville	4-1	9-1	101.9	107.5
Pittsburgh	1-4	4-6	101.2	94.5
South Florida	1-4	3-7	97.8	92.0
Connecticut	1-4	4-6	95.8	91.0
Temple	2-4	4-6	89.6	93.5
Conference Means	99.8438		100.19	99.5

 

Big Ten
Leaders Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Ohio St.	7-0	11-0	114.5	124.5
Wisconsin	4-3	7-4	114.1	111.5
Penn St.	5-2	7-4	109.1	112.0
Purdue	2-5	5-6	99.1	97.5
Indiana	2-5	4-7	93.0	94.0
Illinois	0-7	2-9	90.3	92.5
Legends Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Nebraska	6-1	9-2	115.9	120.0
Michigan	6-1	8-3	114.7	118.0
Michigan St.	2-5	5-6	109.1	109.0
Northwestern	4-3	8-3	107.0	112.0
Minnesota	2-5	6-5	97.4	100.0
Iowa	2-5	4-7	96.4	92.5
Conference Means	106.004		105.05	107.0

 

Big 12
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Kansas St.	7-1	10-1	127.5	121.5
Oklahoma	6-1	8-2	127.3	120.0
Oklahoma St.	5-2	7-3	125.1	117.0
Texas	5-2	8-2	119.1	114.0
Baylor	2-5	5-5	115.3	108.0
T C U	3-4	6-4	112.4	109.0
West Virginia	2-5	5-5	110.8	106.0
Iowa St.	3-5	6-5	110.3	104.0
Texas Tech	4-4	7-4	108.8	105.5
Kansas	0-8	1-10	97.2	95.5
Conference Means	112.715		115.38	110.1

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Central Florida	6-1	8-3	105.7	102.5
East Carolina	6-1	7-4	94.1	95.0
Marshall	4-3	5-6	88.2	87.0
U A B	2-5	3-8	83.0	83.0
Southern Mississippi	0-7	0-11	82.6	75.0
Memphis	3-4	3-8	79.9	85.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Tulsa	7-0	9-2	105.4	102.5
S M U	4-3	5-6	94.8	90.0
Rice	3-4	5-6	91.2	92.0
Houston	3-4	4-7	89.5	83.5
U T E P	2-5	3-8	88.6	83.0
Tulane	2-5	2-9	75.9	76.5
Conference Means	88.9125		89.91	87.9

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating	Vintage
Notre Dame		11-0	124.4	125.0
B Y U		6-5	112.2	111.0
Navy		7-4	92.1	95.0
Army		2-9	84.3	87.0
Conference Means	103.875		103.25	104.5

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Kent St.	7-0	10-1	98.4	105.5
Bowling Green	5-2	7-4	95.7	99.0
Ohio U	4-3	8-3	90.2	94.0
Buffalo	3-4	4-7	85.4	88.5
Miami (O)	3-4	4-7	84.0	85.5
Akron	0-7	1-10	72.8	75.5
Massachusetts	1-6	1-10	68.8	76.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Northern Illinois	7-0	10-1	104.1	104.5
Ball St.	5-2	8-3	100.0	99.0
Toledo	5-2	8-3	98.2	95.5
Western Michigan	2-6	4-8	89.7	83.5
Central Michigan	3-4	5-6	85.0	88.5
Eastern Michigan	1-6	2-9	81.7	82.0
Conference Means	89.6731		88.77	90.6

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Boise St.	6-1	9-2	106.8	109.5
Fresno St.	6-1	8-3	104.0	107.5
San Diego St.	6-1	8-3	100.2	110.5
Nevada	4-3	7-4	94.9	100.0
Air Force	5-2	6-5	88.8	92.0
Wyoming	3-4	4-7	87.9	88.0
Colorado St.	2-5	3-8	83.4	87.5
New Mexico	1-6	4-8	82.7	85.5
UNLV	2-5	2-10	82.3	86.5
Hawaii	0-7	1-9	75.9	78.0
Conference Means	92.595		90.69	94.5

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Oregon	7-1	10-1	130.9	125.5
Stanford	7-1	9-2	119.6	124.5
Oregon St.	6-2	8-2	116.2	116.5
Washington	5-3	7-4	111.0	114.5
California	2-7	3-9	99.6	96.0
Washington St.	0-8	2-9	92.0	87.0
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
U S C	5-4	7-4	118.7	113.0
U C L A	6-2	9-2	115.5	116.5
Arizona	4-4	7-4	110.7	108.5
Arizona St.	4-4	6-5	109.3	105.5
Utah	2-6	4-7	107.1	104.5
Colorado	1-7	1-10	78.5	88.0
Conference Means	108.713		109.09	108.3

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Georgia	7-1	10-1	123.4	127.0
South Carolina	6-2	9-2	121.5	120.0
Florida	7-1	10-1	117.8	122.0
Vanderbilt	5-3	7-4	111.4	113.5
Missouri	2-5	5-6	108.4	105.0
Tennessee	0-7	4-7	107.2	98.5
Kentucky	0-7	2-9	89.6	92.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Alabama	6-1	10-1	132.0	127.5
Texas A&M	5-2	9-2	127.0	124.0
L S U	5-2	9-2	124.4	123.5
Mississippi St.	4-3	8-3	110.5	111.5
Ole Miss	2-5	5-6	107.4	108.5
Arkansas	2-5	4-7	101.2	102.0
Auburn	0-7	3-8	99.3	96.5
Conference Means	112.593		112.94	112.3

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Arkansas St.	6-1	8-3	97.7	99.5
Louisiana-Monroe	5-2	7-4	95.3	92.5
UL-Lafayette	4-2	6-4	95.2	93.0
Western Kentucky	3-4	6-5	92.4	89.5
Troy	3-4	5-6	89.0	88.0
Middle Tennessee	5-1	7-3	86.6	93.0
North Texas	3-4	4-7	85.0	78.0
Florida International	2-5	3-8	84.5	81.5
Florida Atlantic	2-5	3-8	79.9	80.0
South Alabama	1-6	2-9	74.7	75.5
Conference Means	87.54		88.03	87.1

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Utah St.	5-0	9-2	104.7	107.0
Louisiana Tech	4-1	9-2	103.9	103.5
San Jose St.	4-1	9-2	101.9	103.5
Texas St.	1-3	3-7	80.1	85.0
U T S A	2-3	7-4	77.1	86.5
Idaho	1-4	1-10	73.7	75.5
New Mexico St.	0-5	1-9	72.2	70.5
Conference Means	88.9357		87.66	90.2

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

This Week’s Games
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Vintage	Line
Tuesday, November 20
TOLEDO	Akron	33.8	22.5	19
Thursday, November 22
TEXAS	T  c u	9.7	8	8
Friday, November 23
Nebraska	IOWA	16.5	24.5	14 1/2
BOWLING GREEN	Buffalo	12.8	13.0	9
Central Michigan	MASSACHUSETTS	14.2	10.0	10
Ball St.	MIAMI (O)	13.5	11.0	NL
Syracuse	TEMPLE	13.3	7.5	9 1/2
Northern Illinois	EASTERN MICHIGAN	20.4	20.5	20
CINCINNATI	South Florida	7.9	16.5	13
EAST CAROLINA	Marshall	8.9	11.0	4 1/2
KENT ST.	Ohio U	10.7	14.0	10 1/2
L s u	ARKANSAS	20.2	18.5	12
Utah	COLORADO	25.6	13.5	23
IOWA ST.	West Virginia	2.5	1.0	-1
Washington	WASHINGTON ST.	17.0	25.5	11 1/2
ARIZONA	Arizona St.	3.4	5.0	2 1/2
Saturday, November 24
OHIO ST.	Michigan	2.8	9.5	4 1/2
Vanderbilt	WAKE FOREST	17.1	16.0	12 1/2
LOUISVILLE	Connecticut	9.1	19.5	13
GEORGIA	Georgia Tech	18.4	24.0	13
NORTH CAROLINA	Maryland	16.8	14.5	24 1/2
VIRGINIA TECH	Virginia	9.6	7.0	10 1/2
Michigan St.	MINNESOTA	8.7	6.0	8
Miami (Fla)	DUKE	3.9	4.0	5 1/2
NORTHWESTERN	Illinois	19.2	22.0	19
NORTH CAROLINA ST.	Boston College	10.4	12.5	14
TENNESSEE	Kentucky	20.6	9.5	14
Wisconsin	PENN ST.	2.0	-3.5	-3
Rutgers	PITTSBURGH	2.9	11.0	-2
PURDUE	Indiana	8.1	5.5	5 1/2
Texas St.	U T S A	1.0	-3.5	1 1/2
UTAH ST.	Idaho	34.0	34.5	39 1/2
San Diego St.	WYOMING	9.3	19.5	7
BAYLOR (@ Arlington)	Texas Tech	6.5	2.5	2
ALABAMA	Auburn	35.2	33.5	31 1/2
Mississippi St.	OLE MISS	0.6	0.5	-1 1/2
Stanford	U C L A	1.1	5.0	1
B y u	NEW MEXICO ST.	37.5	38.0	28 1/2
FRESNO ST.	Air Force	18.2	18.5	16 1/2
OKLAHOMA	Oklahoma St.	4.7	5.5	8
TEXAS A&M	Missouri	21.6	22.0	22
Oregon	OREGON ST.	12.2	6.5	10
Tulsa	S M U	7.6	9.5	5
FLORIDA ST.	Florida	8.8	3.5	NL
SAN JOSE ST.	Louisiana Tech	1.5	3.5	5
Southern Miss.	MEMPHIS	0.2	-12.5	-5
HOUSTON	Tulane	16.6	10.0	12 1/2
COLORADO ST.	New Mexico	3.9	5.0	3
U T E P	Rice	0.4	-6.0	2 1/2
CLEMSON	South Carolina	2.1	2.5	4
CENTRAL FLORIDA	U a b	25.7	22.5	22
Notre Dame	SOUTHERN CAL	2.2	8.5	NL
U n l v	HAWAII	2.4	4.5	NL
WESTERN KENTUCKY	North Texas	10.4	14.5	11 1/2
MIDDLE TENNESSEE	Troy	0.6	8.0	3
UL-LAFAYETTE	South Alabama	23.5	20.5	18 1/2
UL-Monroe	FLORIDA INT’L	7.8	8.0	6

 

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 14-17, 2012

Conference-by-Conference Look

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Florida State wraps up the Atlantic Division with a win at hapless Maryland this week.  The Terps actually were in line for a bowl until they went through quarterbacks like Liz Taylor went through husbands.  Taking a backup freshman linebacker and making him starting quarterback doesn’t cut it in the ACC.

 

Clemson can earn an at-large BCS Bowl bid by winning out, which would include a victory over South Carolina.

 

North Carolina State needs one win to become bowl eligible.  The Wolfpack finish at Clemson and home versus Boston College, so a 6-6 finish is likely.

 

Wake Forest is 5-5, but the Demon Deacons face two tough teams to close.  There is no chance that Wake will win at Notre Dame this weekend, and there is only a small chance they will beat Vanderbilt in their home finale.

 

The Coastal Division is a muddled mess.  North Carolina is ineligible, so cross the Tar Heels off the list.  Duke, Georgia Tech, and Miami have three conference losses each.  Virginia and Virginia Tech have four conference losses and are eliminated from the race, because the remaining schedule guarantees that one of the three loss teams will finish 5-3.

 

Duke closes with Georgia Tech on the road and Miami at home.  They control their own destiny and will earn the division championship with two wins.  Miami also controls its own destiny.  A win over Duke gives the Hurricanes the Coastal flag.  Georgia Tech can only win if they beat Duke and Duke beats Miami.

 

All three contenders are bowl eligible.  As for the two teams from the Commonwealth, both are 4-6 overall.  Virginia hosts North Carolina Thursday night, while Virginia Tech travels to Boston College Saturday.  The two rivals face off in Blacksburg a week later.  Virginia is the hottest team in the division with back-to-back wins over North Carolina State and Miami.

 

BOWLS

Orange: Florida State

Chick-fil-A: Miami

Russell Athletic: North Carolina St.

Sun: Virginia Tech

Belk: Georgia Tech

Music City: Duke

Independence: None Available

Military: None Available

 

Big East Conference

Louisville’s loss means the league champion will be the last team selected by the BCS Bowls (The Orange Bowl this year).

 

Rutgers currently leads the league with a 4-0 mark, but they lost to Kent State at homecoming three weeks ago.  Kent State is 9-1, but it isn’t the same as losing to Georgia.  The Scarlet Knights finish with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh on the road and Louisville at home, so this race is far from over.

 

Louisville, fresh off a loss to Syracuse, hosts Connecticut on the 24^th and finishes at Rutgers.  The Cardinals beat Cincinnati earlier in the year, so they hold the tiebreaker over the Bearcats in a two-way tie.

 

Cincinnati hosts Rutgers and South Florida before finishing at Connecticut.

 

If the three contenders finish tied at 6-1, the BCS representative would be the team ranked highest in the BCS rankings, which would almost assuredly be Louisville.

 

Syracuse could still finish in a multiple team tie at 5-2, but there is no way the Orangemen can take the BCS bowl bid.  The ‘Cuse needs one more win to become bowl eligible, and they have two chances to get it—at Missouri this week and at Temple on Black Friday.

 

The other four league teams, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, South Florida, and Temple, all have six losses.  If any win out, they would be bowl eligible, but we don’t see it happening.

 

BOWLS

BCS (Orange Bowl): Cincinnati

Russell Athletic: Louisville

Belk: Rutgers

Pinstripe: Syracuse

BBVA Compass: No Available Team

Beef O’Brady’s: No Available Team

 

Big Ten Conference

Wisconsin has already clinched the Leader’s Division spot in the Big Ten title game, but the Badgers could still finish third in the division with a 4-4/7-5 record.  UW hosts undefeated Ohio State this week and goes to Penn State the following week.

 

Ohio State can still claim the Associated Press National Championship if they beat Wisconsin and Michigan to finish 12-0, and if Kansas State, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Alabama lose.  It has happened before where a team on probation won the AP national title.  Oklahoma did it in 1974.  Auburn did it in 1957.

 

Purdue and Indiana are still in the hunt for bowl eligibility at 4-6.  The Hoosiers would have to close out with wins at Penn State and Purdue, so we say “no way.”  Purdue has a decent chance with a road game against Illinois and a home finale with the Hoosiers.

 

The Legends Division has not yet been decided.  Nebraska and Michigan are tied at 5-1 in league play with the Cornhuskers holding the tiebreaker over the Maize and Blue.  Nebraska finishes with Minnesota at home and Iowa on the road, which looks like two wins.  Michigan hosts Iowa and finishes at Ohio State.

 

Northwestern and Minnesota are both bowl eligible, while Michigan State needs one more win.  The Spartans finish with Northwestern and Minnesota.  Attendance at Spartan Stadium has been off this year, and Coach Mark Dantonio could find his seat beginning to heat up just one year removed from the Legends Division title.

 

BOWLS

Rose: Nebraska

Capital One: Michigan

Outback: Wisconsin

Buffalo Wild Wings: Michigan St.

Gator: Northwestern

Meineke Car Care of Texas: Minnesota

Heart of Dallas: Purdue

Little Caesar’s: None Available

 

Big 12 Conference

Kansas State’s path to the National Championship Game is not as easy as one might think.  They do not have to win a conference championship game, but the Wildcats still have two tricky games left on their schedule.  They play at Baylor this week, and the Bears have an offense capable of scoring 40 on just about anybody.  After a week off, KSU closes at home with Texas.  The Longhorns are a much better team in November than they were in October.  It could also be Mack Brown’s final regular season game if the powers that be decide it is time for him to retire (especially if they believe they can still lure Will Muchamp back to Austin).

 

Oklahoma will get a BCS bowl bid if they beat West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and TCU to finish 10-2.  Texas could sneak into a BCS Bowl if Oklahoma loses a game, and the Longhorns upset Kansas State.

 

Eight teams should finish bowl eligible in what the computer ratings say is the top league in college football this year.  Iowa State needs a win against Kansas this week to become the seventh bowl-eligible team, while West Virginia needs one more win and has Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Kansas remaining.

 

BOWLS

National Championship Game: Kansas State

Fiesta: Oklahoma

Cotton: Texas

Alamo: Texas Tech

Buffalo Wild Wings: Oklahoma St.

Holiday: West Virginia

Meineke Car Care of Texas: Iowa St.

Pinstripe: T C U

Heart of Dallas: None Available

 

Conference USA

This league is way down this year.  Houston, SMU, Southern Mississippi, Marshall, and UTEP are bringing this league down with terrible seasons.  Tulsa and Central Florida are the only quality teams, and the two division leaders square off at Chapman Stadium in Tulsa.

 

East Carolina is the only other bowl eligible team as of today, and the Pirates are anything but a strong team (they have been outscored against mediocre opposition).

 

SMU is 5-5, while Rice is 4-6.  One of these two should get to 6-6 and become the fourth bowl-eligible team.  These two hook up this week in Houston.  Rice finishes at UTEP, while SMU hosts Tulsa.

 

BOWLS

Liberty: Tulsa

Hawaii: Central Florida

Armed Forces: S M U

Beef O’Brady’s: East Carolina

New Orleans: None Available

 

Independents

Three of the four Independents are headed to bowls.  Notre Dame is in the national title race, but we think the Irish will be the odd team out if three finish undefeated.  Oregon would have additional wins over Stanford, Oregon State, and Southern Cal if they win out, while Notre Dame would have wins over Wake Forest and Southern Cal.

 

Brigham Young and Navy have earned bowl bids to their respective tie-in bowls for 2012.  Army has been eliminated.  Their bowl comes December 8 against Navy, who they have not beaten since 2001.

 

BOWLS

Rose: Notre Dame

Poinsettia: B Y U

Kraft Fight Hunger: Navy

Military: None Available (Army not bowl eligible)

 

Mid-American Conference

The MAC is one of two conference that will benefit from other conferences not having enough bowl eligible teams this year.  It is our opinion that if either Kent State or Northern Illinois finish 12-1, they should be in the equation for a BCS Bowl.  If Kent State wins out and Rutgers takes the Big East, the Golden Flashes will own a win over a BCS Bowl team.

 

Bowling Green still has a shot in the East, and Toledo has a shot in the West, while Ball State and Ohio give this conference six very good teams headed to bowls.

 

BOWLS

Little  Caesar’s: Kent State

GoDaddy.com: Toledo

Famous Idaho Potato: Northern Illinois

At-Large Bowl Teams: Bowling Green (Heart of Dallas), Ohio U (Military), and Ball St. (BBVA Compass)

 

Mountain West

This league was supposed to be the top non-AQ league in the land, but the Mountain West is barely stronger than the WAC this year.

 

Boise State has lost twice, so the Broncos are out of the BCS picture.  The Broncos may not even win the conference.  San Diego State and Fresno State are there equal this season.

 

Nevada and Air Force should give this league five bowl eligible teams, but both the Wolf Pack and Falcons are having disappointing seasons.

 

BOWLS

MAACO: Boise St.

Poinsettia: Fresno St.

Hawaii: San Diego St.

Armed Forces: Air Force

New Mexico: Nevada

 

Pac-12 Conference

Oregon reminds us in a way of Oklahoma in the early 1970’s.  The 1971 Sooners had the most unstoppable offense in college football since the Army teams during World War II (Those Army teams were all-star teams during the war years).

 

In 1971, Oklahoma rushed for almost 500 yards per game and gained better than 12 yards per pass attempt.  In the epic game against Nebraska, OU gained close to 200 yards passing on about six completions.  The great Cornhusker team gave up six points per game to the other 12 teams on their schedule (including just six to 11-0 Alabama), but Oklahoma scored 28 points on NU and gained closed to 500 yards.

 

Oregon is much in the same boat.  The Ducks can hang 40 on any team in the country.  They can hang 60 on bowl eligible teams.  However, the Ducks can also give up 50 points against said bowl eligible teams.

 

Oregon has had Stanford’s number in recent years, so the Ducks could begin the big game this week thinking they cannot lose to the Cardinal.  Stanford can do the one thing that can upset the Ducks.  It is the same thing that Nebraska used to beat Oklahoma in the greatest college game ever played.  The ‘Huskers held onto the ball for more than 70 plays, and Stanford can do the same to Oregon.  Oregon’s offense cannot score if Stanford holds onto it.  If the Cardinal finish with 75 plays, they have a chance to reduce the undefeated ranks by 25%.

 

Oregon still has the tough Civil War game with Oregon State in Corvallis and has to win the Pac-12 Championship Game against Southern Cal or UCLA.

 

The South Division is very much up for grabs this week.  Southern Cal heads north up the Pasadena Freeway to play UCLA at the Rose Bowl.  The winner clinches the South Division.

 

Arizona is bowl eligible in Rich Rodriguez’s first season in Tucson.  Arizona State and Utah are still alive.  The Sun Devils need one more win and should get it this week when they host Washington State.  Utah must win out against Arizona and Colorado.

 

BOWLS

National Championship Game: Oregon

Alamo: Stanford

Holiday: Washington

Sun: Southern Cal

MAACO: UCLA

Kraft Fight Hunger: Oregon St.

New Mexico: Arizona

At-Large Bowl Teams: Arizona St. (Military), Utah (Heart of Dallas)

 

Southeastern Conference

Alabama still has a shot at the National Championship Game, but the Tide needs too much to happen to make it back.  We don’t see two of the three undefeated teams losing.  The Tide still has to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, and as of today, the game would be a 50-50 contest.

 

The big question is which team will be the second BCS Bowl participant?  LSU could be in the equation if the Sugar Bowl wants a home team.  Texas A&M could be the second team if the Fiesta bowl wants Johnny Football.  Georgia and Florida could also be the chosen team.  Of course, if Georgia beats Alabama, it is a moot point.  However, would LSU, Texas A&M, or Florida have a chance at shutting out Alabama from the BCS at-large equation?

 

South Carolina is the clear number six team in the league, and the Gamecocks could finish 11-2!  That shows just how tough the top half of the league is this year.

 

Four more teams should finish bowl eligible.  Vanderbilt and Mississippi State are already bowl eligible, and the two teams are competing against each other in the pecking order for the number seven team.  Missouri is one win away from bowl eligibility and host Syracuse this week.  The Tigers have a 60% chance of winning that one.  Ole Miss needs an upset over Mississippi State (or LSU) to get to six wins.

 

BOWLS

Sugar: Alabama

Fiesta: Georgia

Capital One: L S U

Outback: Florida

Cotton: Texas A&M

Chick-fil-A: South Carolina

Gator: Mississippi St.

Music City: Vanderbilt

Liberty: Missouri

BBVA Compass: Ole Miss

Independence: None Available

 

Sunbelt Conference

The SBC should produce an all-time high with five bowl invitations this year.  The race is still up for grabs between four teams (Arkansas St., UL-Lafayette, UL-Monroe, and Middle Tennessee), while Western Kentucky should also get a bowl bid.

 

Troy is 5-5 with games remaining against Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee.  If the Trojans win both games, then they will get a bowl bid, possibly at Utah’s expense.

 

BOWLS

New Orleans: Arkansas St.

GoDaddy.com: UL-Monroe

At-Large Bowl Teams: Western Kentucky (Little Caesar’s), UL-Lafayette (Beef O’Brady’s), Middle Tennessee (Independence)

 

Western Athletic Conference

In the league’s final year as a football conference, three teams are emerging as legitimate bowl-worthy squads.  Louisiana Tech is still in the hunt for qualification as an at-large BCS Bowl Team.  The Bulldogs must win out and then they need Wisconsin to lose one more game and then win the Big Ten Championship Game to earn the Big Ten’s automatic bid or Cincinnati to win the Big East.

 

We aren’t confident that LT can win out.  They finish with the other top two teams in the WAC—Utah State and San Jose State.  They may beat the Aggies at home, but the finale against the Spartans on the coast is a big trap game.

 

UTSA is ineligible for a bowl in their first season in FBS football, but the Roadrunners will secure a winning season with a win over lowly Idaho this week, and they could finish 8-4 if they knock off Texas State the week after.  Larry Coker may have put himself back in the hunt for a bigger coaching job.

 

This league could send three other coaches to bigger schools.  LT’s Sonny Dykes is high on the list at many vacancies.  USU’s Gary Andersen will be contacted, and SJSU’s Mike MacIntyre will get a better offer as well.

 

BOWLS

Famous Idaho Potato *: Utah St.

At-Large Bowl Teams: Louisiana Tech (Independence *), San Jose St. (New Orleans)

 

* We still project Louisiana Tech to win the WAC, but we believe a deal will be struck that allows the Bulldogs to stay close to home and send Utah State to Boise.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

P i R a t e
#	Team	PiRate
1	Oregon	133.0
2	Alabama	132.0
3	Kansas St.	131.2
4	Oklahoma	128.3
5	Texas A&M	127.0
6	L S U	125.6
7	Florida St.	123.4
8	Georgia	123.4
9	Notre Dame	123.3
10	Oklahoma St.	123.1
11	South Carolina	122.5
12	Clemson	121.7
13	U S C	120.5
14	Texas	119.1
15	Florida	118.8
16	Stanford	117.5
17	Nebraska	115.6
18	Wisconsin	115.1
19	B Y U	114.3
20	Michigan	114.1
21	U C L A	113.7
22	Oregon St.	113.6
23	Ohio St.	113.5
24	T C U	112.4
25	Baylor	111.6
26	Texas Tech	110.8
27	Michigan St.	110.3
28	Washington	110.0
29	West Virginia	109.8
30	Missouri	109.7
31	Vanderbilt	109.6
32	Arizona	109.0
33	Tennessee	109.0
34	Utah	108.8
35	Iowa St.	108.7
36	Penn St.	108.6
37	Mississippi St.	108.3
38	North Carolina	107.1
39	Arizona St.	107.1
40	Boise St.	106.5
41	Georgia Tech	106.2
42	Ole Miss	106.2
43	Central Florida	106.1
44	Rutgers	105.8
45	Northwestern	105.8
46	Tulsa	105.0
47	Louisiana Tech	104.6
48	Syracuse	104.1
49	Cincinnati	104.0
50	Northern Illinois	104.0
51	Fresno St.	104.0
52	Utah St.	104.0
53	Virginia Tech	103.9
54	Arkansas	103.4
55	North Carolina St.	102.7
56	California	102.2
57	Louisville	101.9
58	Pittsburgh	101.2
59	Miami-FL	100.9
60	South Florida	100.8
61	San Diego St.	100.2
62	San Jose St.	99.8
63	Purdue	99.3
64	Kansas	98.8
65	Ball St.	98.6
66	Toledo	98.3
67	Auburn	98.3
68	Duke	97.8
69	Kent St.	97.8
70	Minnesota	97.7
71	Arkansas St.	97.4
72	Virginia	97.3
73	Iowa	97.0
74	S M U	97.0
75	Bowling Green	96.3
76	Connecticut	95.8
77	Boston College	95.6
78	Maryland	95.3
79	UL-Lafayette	95.1
80	East Carolina	94.8
81	Nevada	94.8
82	Washington St.	94.2
83	Louisiana-Monroe	94.1
84	Indiana	93.5
85	Western Kentucky	92.5
86	Wake Forest	92.4
87	Navy	92.4
88	Ohio U	91.6
89	Western Michigan	91.4
90	Illinois	90.1
91	Houston	89.6
92	Troy	89.3
93	Rice	89.0
94	U T E P	88.8
95	Air Force	88.6
96	Kentucky	88.6
97	Marshall	88.1
98	Wyoming	87.6
99	Army	87.3
100	Temple	86.6
101	U A B	86.5
102	Middle Tennessee	86.5
103	North Texas	86.2
104	Buffalo	85.7
105	Miami (O)	84.8
106	Central Michigan	84.2
107	Colorado St.	83.7
108	Florida International	83.5
109	New Mexico	82.8
110	UNLV	82.6
111	Southern Mississippi	82.4
112	Florida Atlantic	80.9
113	Eastern Michigan	80.0
114	Texas St.	79.8
115	Colorado	79.5
116	Memphis	76.4
117	Hawaii	76.1
118	U T S A	76.1
119	Tulane	75.2
120	South Alabama	74.8
121	Idaho	74.7
122	Akron	72.8
123	New Mexico St.	72.2
124	Massachusetts	68.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Vintage Ratings

V i n t a g e
#	Team	Vintage
1	Oregon	129.5
2	Kansas St.	128.0
3	Georgia	127.0
4	Alabama	126.5
5	L S U	124.5
6	Notre Dame	123.5
7	Texas A&M	123.5
8	Florida St.	122.0
9	Florida	122.0
10	Ohio State	122.0
11	S. Carolina	121.5
12	Oklahoma	120.5
13	Clemson	120.0
14	Stanford	120.0
15	Nebraska	117.5
16	Oklahoma St.	116.5
17	Michigan	115.5
18	Southern Cal	115.5
19	Texas	114.0
20	B Y U	113.5
21	Oregon St.	112.5
22	Washington	112.5
23	U C L A	112.5
24	Vanderbilt	112.0
25	Penn St.	111.5
26	Michigan St.	111.5
27	Wisconsin	111.0
28	San Diego St.	110.5
29	Mississippi St.	110.0
30	Boise St.	109.5
31	T C U	109.0
32	Ole Miss	108.5
33	Northwestern	108.5
34	Texas Tech	108.5
35	Rutgers	108.0
36	Louisville	107.5
37	Fresno St.	107.5
38	Cincinnati	107.0
39	North Carolina St.	106.5
40	Missouri	106.5
41	West Virginia	106.0
42	Arizona	106.0
43	Virginia Tech	105.5
44	Louisiana Tech	105.5
45	Utah	105.5
46	Central Florida	104.5
47	Tulsa	104.5
48	Kent St.	104.5
49	Utah St.	104.5
50	Arkansas	104.0
51	Northern Illinois	104.0
52	Iowa St.	104.0
53	Baylor	103.5
54	Georgia Tech	103.0
55	Miami–FL	103.0
56	Arizona St.	103.0
57	Syracuse	102.5
58	North Carolina	102.5
59	Virginia	102.5
60	Tennessee	102.5
61	San Jose St.	101.5
62	Minnesota	100.5
63	Bowling Green	100.0
64	Duke	99.5
65	Nevada	99.0
66	Arkansas St.	98.5
67	Ball St.	97.5
68	California	97.5
69	Boston College	97.0
70	Purdue	97.0
71	Ohio U	96.5
72	Wake Forest	96.0
73	Auburn	96.0
74	Toledo	96.0
75	Navy	95.5
76	Kansas	95.5
77	S M U	95.0
78	Pittsburgh	94.5
79	Indiana	94.5
80	South Florida	94.0
81	Maryland	94.0
82	East Carolina	93.5
83	Iowa	93.0
84	UL-Lafayette	92.5
85	Illinois	92.0
86	Kentucky	91.5
87	UL-Monroe	91.5
88	Middle Tennessee	91.5
89	Connecticut	91.0
90	Air Force	91.0
91	Temple	90.5
92	Army	90.0
93	Western Kentucky	90.0
94	Washington St.	89.5
95	Colorado St.	88.5
96	Colorado	88.5
97	Buffalo	88.0
98	Central Michigan	88.0
99	Western Michigan	88.0
100	Rice	87.5
101	Troy	87.5
102	Miami (O)	87.5
103	U N L V	87.5
104	Wyoming	86.5
105	U A B	86.0
106	New Mexico	86.0
107	Marshall	85.0
108	U T E P	85.0
109	U T S A	85.0
110	Houston	84.5
111	Texas St.	84.5
112	Florida Int’l	82.0
113	Eastern Michigan	81.0
114	Memphis	80.0
115	Florida Atlantic	79.5
116	North Texas	79.5
117	Hawaii	79.0
118	Massachusetts	77.0
119	Southern Miss.	76.5
120	Tulane	76.0
121	Idaho	76.0
122	Akron	75.5
123	South Alabama	75.0
124	New Mexico St.	70.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Florida St.	6-1	9-1	123.4	122.0
Clemson	6-1	9-1	121.7	120.0
North Carolina St.	3-3	6-4	102.7	106.5
Boston College	1-5	2-8	95.6	97.0
Maryland	2-4	4-6	95.3	94.0
Wake Forest	3-5	5-5	92.4	96.0
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
North Carolina	3-3	6-4	107.1	102.5
Georgia Tech	4-3	5-5	106.2	103.0
Virginia Tech	2-4	4-6	103.9	105.5
Miami-FL	4-3	6-4	100.9	103.0
Duke	3-3	6-4	97.8	99.5
Virginia	2-4	4-6	97.3	102.5
Conference Means	103.99		103.69	104.3

 

 

Big East Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Rutgers	4-0	8-1	105.8	108.0
Syracuse	4-2	5-5	104.1	102.5
Cincinnati	3-1	7-2	104.0	107.0
Louisville	4-1	9-1	101.9	107.5
Pittsburgh	1-4	4-6	101.2	94.5
South Florida	1-4	3-6	100.8	94.0
Connecticut	1-4	4-6	95.8	91.0
Temple	2-4	3-6	86.6	90.5
Conference Means	99.7		100.03	99.4

 

 

Big Ten
Leaders Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Wisconsin	4-2	7-3	115.1	111.0
Ohio St.	6-0	10-0	113.5	122.0
Penn St.	4-2	6-4	108.6	111.5
Purdue	1-5	4-6	99.3	97.0
Indiana	2-4	4-6	93.5	94.5
Illinois	0-6	2-8	90.1	92.0
Legends Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Nebraska	5-1	8-2	115.6	117.5
Michigan	5-1	7-3	114.1	115.5
Michigan St.	2-4	5-5	110.3	111.5
Northwestern	3-3	7-3	105.8	108.5
Minnesota	2-4	6-4	97.7	100.5
Iowa	2-4	4-6	97.0	93.0
Conference Means	105.629		105.05	106.2

 

 

Big 12
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Kansas St.	7-0	10-0	131.2	128.0
Oklahoma	5-1	7-2	128.3	120.5
Oklahoma St.	4-2	6-3	123.1	116.5
Texas	5-2	8-2	119.1	114.0
T C U	3-4	6-4	112.4	109.0
Baylor	1-5	4-5	111.6	103.5
Texas Tech	4-3	7-3	110.8	108.5
West Virginia	2-4	5-4	109.8	106.0
Iowa St.	2-5	5-5	108.7	104.0
Kansas	0-7	1-9	98.8	95.5
Conference Means	112.965		115.38	110.6

 

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Central Florida	6-0	8-2	106.1	104.5
East Carolina	5-1	6-4	94.8	93.5
Marshall	3-3	4-6	88.1	85.0
U A B	2-4	3-7	86.5	86.0
Southern Mississippi	0-6	0-10	82.4	76.5
Memphis	2-4	2-8	76.4	80.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Tulsa	6-0	8-2	105.0	104.5
S M U	4-2	5-5	97.0	95.0
Houston	3-3	4-6	89.6	84.5
Rice	2-4	4-6	89.0	87.5
U T E P	1-5	2-8	88.8	85.0
Tulane	2-4	2-8	75.2	76.0
Conference Means	89.0375		89.91	88.2

 

 

Independents
Team		Overall	Rating	Vintage
Notre Dame		10-0	123.3	123.5
B Y U		6-4	114.3	113.5
Navy		6-4	92.4	95.5
Army		2-8	87.3	90.0
Conference Means	104.975		104.33	105.6

 

 

Mid American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Kent St.	6-0	9-1	97.8	104.5
Bowling Green	5-1	7-3	96.3	100.0
Ohio U	4-2	8-2	91.6	96.5
Buffalo	2-4	3-7	85.7	88.0
Miami (O)	3-3	4-6	84.8	87.5
Akron	0-7	1-10	72.8	75.5
Massachusetts	1-5	1-9	68.5	77.0
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Northern Illinois	6-0	9-1	104.0	104.0
Ball St.	4-2	7-3	98.6	97.5
Toledo	5-1	8-2	98.3	96.0
Western Michigan	2-5	4-7	91.4	88.0
Central Michigan	2-4	4-6	84.2	88.0
Eastern Michigan	0-6	1-9	80.0	81.0
Conference Means	89.9038		88.77	91.0

 

 

Mountain West Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Boise St.	5-1	8-2	106.5	109.5
Fresno St.	6-1	8-3	104.0	107.5
San Diego St.	6-1	8-3	100.2	110.5
Nevada	3-3	6-4	94.8	99.0
Air Force	4-2	5-5	88.6	91.0
Wyoming	2-4	3-7	87.6	86.5
Colorado St.	2-4	3-7	83.7	88.5
New Mexico	1-5	4-7	82.8	86.0
UNLV	2-4	2-9	82.6	87.5
Hawaii	0-6	1-8	76.1	79.0
Conference Means	92.595		90.69	94.5

 

 

Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Oregon	7-0	10-0	133.0	129.5
Stanford	6-1	8-2	117.5	120.0
Oregon St.	5-2	7-2	113.6	112.5
Washington	4-3	6-4	110.0	112.5
California	2-6	3-8	102.2	97.5
Washington St.	0-7	2-8	94.2	89.5
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
U S C	5-3	7-3	120.5	115.5
U C L A	5-2	8-2	113.7	112.5
Arizona	3-4	6-4	109.0	106.0
Utah	2-5	4-6	108.8	105.5
Arizona St.	3-4	5-5	107.1	103.0
Colorado	1-6	1-9	79.5	88.5
Conference Means	108.4		109.09	107.7

 

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Georgia	7-1	9-1	123.4	127.0
South Carolina	6-2	8-2	122.5	121.5
Florida	7-1	9-1	118.8	122.0
Missouri	2-5	5-5	109.7	106.5
Vanderbilt	4-3	6-4	109.6	112.0
Tennessee	0-6	4-6	109.0	102.5
Kentucky	0-7	1-9	88.6	91.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Alabama	6-1	9-1	132.0	126.5
Texas A&M	5-2	8-2	127.0	123.5
L S U	4-2	8-2	125.6	124.5
Mississippi St.	3-3	7-3	108.3	110.0
Ole Miss	2-4	5-5	106.2	108.5
Arkansas	2-4	4-6	103.4	104.0
Auburn	0-7	2-8	98.3	96.0
Conference Means	112.8		113.03	112.6

 

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Arkansas St.	5-1	7-3	97.4	98.5
UL-Lafayette	3-2	5-4	95.1	92.5
Louisiana-Monroe	4-2	6-4	94.1	91.5
Western Kentucky	3-3	6-4	92.5	90.0
Troy	3-3	5-5	89.3	87.5
Middle Tennessee	4-1	6-3	86.5	91.5
North Texas	3-3	4-6	86.2	79.5
Florida International	1-5	2-8	83.5	82.0
Florida Atlantic	2-4	3-7	80.9	79.5
South Alabama	1-5	2-8	74.8	75.0
Conference Means	87.39		88.03	86.8

 

 

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	Rating	Vintage
Louisiana Tech	4-0	9-1	104.6	105.5
Utah St.	4-0	8-2	104.0	104.5
San Jose St.	4-1	8-2	99.8	101.5
Texas St.	1-3	3-6	79.8	84.5
U T S A	1-3	6-4	76.1	85.0
Idaho	1-3	1-9	74.7	76.0
New Mexico St.	0-5	1-9	72.2	70.5
Conference Means	88.4786		87.31	89.6

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

This Week’s Games
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Vintage	Line
Wednesday, November 14
BALL ST.	Ohio U	10.0	4.0	6 1/2
NORTHERN ILLINOIS	Toledo	8.7	11.0	10
Thursday, November 15
North Carolina	VIRGINIA	6.8	-3.0	3 1/2
Friday, November 16
AIR FORCE	Hawaii	16.5	16.0	23
Florida Int’l	FLORIDA ATLANTIC	0.6	0.5	-1 1/2
Saturday, November 17
GEORGIA TECH	Duke	11.4	6.5	13
ARMY	Temple	3.2	2.0	3 1/2
BOWLING GREEN	Kent St.	0.5	-2.0	2 1/2
Virginia Tech	BOSTON COLLEGE	5.3	5.5	10
NEBRASKA	Minnesota	20.9	20.0	20
MISSISSIPPI ST.	Arkansas	7.9	9.0	6 1/2
MIAMI-FLA	South Florida	2.1	11.0	7
Purdue	ILLINOIS	6.2	2.0	7
Iowa St.	KANSAS	6.9	5.5	6
MARSHALL	Houston	1.5	3.5	3 1/2
Florida St.	MARYLAND	25.1	25.0	31
Buffalo	MASSACHUSETTS	15.2	9.0	11
MICHIGAN ST.	Northwestern	7.5	6.0	6 1/2
CLEMSON	North Carolina St.	22.0	16.5	17
CINCINNATI	Rutgers	1.2	2.0	6 1/2
PENN ST.	Indiana	18.1	20.0	18 1/2
VANDERBILT	Tennessee	2.6	11.5	4
CENTRAL MICHIGAN	Miami (O)	1.9	3.0	3 1/2
U A B	Memphis	12.6	8.5	10
WESTERN MICHIGAN	Eastern Michigan	13.4	9.0	13
Oklahoma	WEST VIRGINIA	15.5	11.5	11
Southern Cal	U C L A	4.8	1.0	4
BOISE ST.	Colorado St.	25.8	24.0	28
NAVY	Texas St.	15.6	14.0	13
Kansas St.	BAYLOR	16.6	21.5	12
Nevada	NEW MEXICO	9.0	10.0	10
NOTRE DAME	Wake Forest	33.9	30.5	24
OREGON	Stanford	18.5	12.5	20 1/2
OREGON ST.	California	14.4	18.0	NL
S m u	RICE	5.5	5.0	3 1/2
East Carolina	TULANE	17.1	15.0	9 1/2
TULSA	Central Florida	1.9	3.0	3
MICHIGAN	Iowa	20.1	25.5	20
Washington	COLORADO	27.5	21.0	20 1/2
B y u	SAN JOSE ST.	11.5	9.0	3
Wyoming	U N L V	2.5	-3.5	NL
IDAHO	U t s a	1.1	-6.5	-6 1/2
UTAH	Arizona	2.8	2.5	NL
MISSOURI	Syracuse	8.6	7.0	4 1/2
OKLAHOMA ST.	Texas Tech	15.3	11.0	10 1/2
LOUISIANA TECH	Utah St.	3.6	4.0	-3
WISCONSIN	Ohio St.	4.6	-8.0	3
L S U	Ole Miss	22.4	19.0	18 1/2
U t e p	SOUTHERN MISS.	3.9	6.0	4
ARIZONA ST.	Washington St.	15.9	16.5	22
Arkansas St.	TROY	5.1	8.0	3
UL-MONROE	North Texas	10.9	15.0	10
Middle Tennessee	SOUTH ALABAMA	9.2	14.0	9
UL-LAFAYETTE	Western Kentucky	5.6	5.5	4

 

Bowl Projections

Bowl	Conference	Team	Conference	Team
New Mexico	MWC # 4/5	Nevada	Pac12 #7 / WAC	Arizona
Famous Idaho Potato	MAC #3	Northern Illinois	WAC #1/2	Utah St.
Poinsettia	MWC #2	Fresno St.	BYU/WAC	B Y U
Beef O’Brady’s	Big East #6	(UL-Lafayette)	C-USA #2-5 (4)	East Carolina
New Orleans	Sunbelt #1	Arkansas St.	C-USA #2-5 (5)	(San Jose St.)
MAACO	MWC #1	Boise St.	Pac 12 #5	U C L A
Hawaii	MWC #3/Hawaii	San Diego St.	C-USA #2-5 (2)	Central Florida
Little Caesar’s Pizza	Big 10 #8	(Western Ky.)	MAC #1	Kent St.
Military	ACC #8	(Ohio U)	Army/CUSA	(Arizona St.)
Belk	ACC #5	Georgia Tech	Big East #3	Rutgers
Holiday	Pac 12 #3	Washington	Big 12 #5	West Virginia
Independence	ACC #6/7 (7)	(Middle Tenn.)	SEC #10	(La. Tech)
Russell Athletic	Big East #2	Louisville	ACC #3	North Carolina St.
Meineke Car Care	Big 12 #6	Iowa St.	Big 10 #6	Minnesota
Armed Forces	C-USA #3	S M U	MWC #4-5	Air Force
Kraft Fight Hunger	Pac 12 #6	Oregon St.	Navy/ACC	Navy
Pinstripe	Big East #4	Syracuse	Big 12 #7	T C U
Alamo	Big 12 #3	Texas Tech	Pac 12 #2	Stanford
Buffalo Wild Wings	Big 12 #4	Oklahoma St.	Big 10 #4 or 5	Michigan St.
Music City	SEC # 7	Vanderbilt	ACC #6	Duke
Sun	ACC #4	Virginia Tech	Pac 12 #4	Southern Cal
Liberty	SEC#8-9/BigEast	Missouri	C-USA #1	Tulsa
Chick-fil-A	SEC #5	South Carolina	ACC #2	Miami-Fla
Heart of Dallas	Big 10 #7	(Bowling Green)	Big 12 #8	(Utah)
Gator	Big 10 #4 or 5	Northwestern	SEC #6	Mississippi St.
Capital One	Big 10 #2	Michigan	SEC #2	L S U
Outback	SEC #3 or 4	Florida	Big 10 #3	Wisconsin
Rose	BCS Pac12	Notre Dame	BCS Big 10	Nebraska
Orange	BCS ACC	Florida St.	BCS At-Large	Cincinnati
Sugar	BCS SEC	Alabama	BCS At-Large	Clemson
Fiesta	BCS Big 12	Oklahoma	BCS At-Large	Georgia
Cotton	Big 12 #2	Texas	SEC #3 or 4	Texas A&M
BBVA Compass	Big East#5/CUSA	(Ball St.)	SEC #8 or 9	Ole Miss
GoDaddy.com	Sunbelt # 2	UL-Monroe	MAC #2	Toledo
National Championship	*** BCS #1 ***	Kansas St.	*** BCS #2 ***	Oregon

 

PiRate Picks For Thursday, August 30, 2012

A fool and his money are soon parted.  There’s a sucker born every minute.  And so on, and so forth.  At least you don’t have to pay for this information, so that does not really make you a sucker or a fool until the time comes where you actually use this information.

 

Every week at the PiRate Ratings, we will release some picks against the spread JUST FOR FUN.  Do not use these with money you care to still have next week.

 

From 2006 to 2010, we had the privilege of having somebody here that did know how to select winners.  He was correct between 56 and 65% of the time before he decided that a career in management with a large home improvement warehouse was more stable.

 

After he left the PiRate Ratings, we decided last year to do this just for fun.  Where we had previously charged a small fee for the info, we began giving it out for free, and our picks were priced correctly last year, as we had a 53% winning percentage.  At least you didn’t lose anything if you actually used these picks and wagered the same amount every week.  And, if you just wagered the pro picks, you made a little profit.

 

Still, we are doing this just for fun again this year.  None of us here actually wager on these games.  We would be a lot more conservative with the picks if we used them for that purpose, never actually playing anything but 1, 3, or 5 games in a week.

 

If you have been following the PiRate Ratings for several years, you know we love to play 10-point teasers with a few rules.  We enjoy teasing games so that a favorite gets points or reduces down to – ½ point.  We love playing teasers where the new teased line is a favorable number such as 7 ½, 10 ½, 14 ½, 17 ½, or even 3 ½.  We love giving 10 extra points to an underdog that we feel has a 60% chance of beating the non-teased spread.

 

Here are our picks for August 30-September 3, 2012.

 

Straight Sides

1. Massachusetts +24 ½ vs. Connecticut

2. Michigan State – 6 ½ vs. Boise State

3. San Diego State +14 ½ vs. Washington

 

Connecticut is not back to where they were in 2010.  Paul Pasqualoni’s team will struggle to become bowl eligible this year, and we do not see the Huskies running any opponent off the field.  This is UMass’s first game as a FBS team, and they will be fired up against their former rival in the old Yankee Conference and later Atlantic 10.  UMass will suffer through a very long year, but this is their first game, and the players still feel confident.  We look for the game to be lower scoring than expected, something like 27-10 in favor of the Huskies. 

 

Boise State is getting a lot of respect now, but this team is depleted and would lose to last year’s team by three touchdowns.  Michigan State has some minor rebuilding to do, but Mark Dantonio is like Nick Saban and Jim Tressel.  He won’t use many gimmick.  The Spartans will take advantage of their muscle and pound the ball until Boise tries to add an extra man in the box.  Boise will wear down as the night goes on, and their defense will stay on the field too long.  MSU’s defense will slow down the Boise offense, and we look for the Spartans to win by 10 or more points—in the neighborhood of 28-17.

 

We like Rocky Long’s ability to come up with a sound defensive game plan.  He did it for years with undermanned New Mexico teams, and he’s done it at San Diego State, first as DC and now as head coach.  His Aztecs face a UW team that is missing a lot of offensive stars from last year and was not much of a defensive power in 2011.  We actually believe SDSU has a decent shot at the upset win, so getting 14 ½ sounds like gravy.

 

Straight Totals

4. UCLA & Rice UNDER 57

5. Nebraska & Southern Mississippi UNDER 52 ½

6. LSU & North Texas UNDER 52

 

We tend to believe that opening game totals are a bit high in college football.  In a lot of instances, the defense is ahead of the offense in the first game.  It takes timing to get offenses to click, whereas defenses are usually ready.  This is not the way it always happens, but we usually like to look for first-game opportunities to play the UNDER.

 

We have chosen these three games for specific reasons.  In the UCLA/Rice game, we look at new coach Jim Mora II’s history as a defensive-minded coach plus the transition from the Pistol offense to the pro offense with a redshirt freshman making his first start.  It is also a road game, so we do not see UCLA scoring a lot of points.  Rice is an offensive-minded team, and the Owls played matador defense too many times last year, but before depth issues emerged, they were much better defensively at the beginning of the season, holding Texas to 34 and upsetting Purdue.  We see UCLA winning by 10 in a low-scoring game, 31-21.

 

Nebraska and Southern Mississippi have new coaches this year.  Nebraska lost its defensive coordinator, Carl Pelini, and his brother, the head coach Bo, will now be calling the defensive plays and taking more responsibility for the defensive game planning.  He was a fine DC in his days as an assistant, and we believe that in order to help his fine defense look better, he will play it close to the vest on offense.  Southern Miss has a new head coach.  Ellis Johnson is a defensive whiz, and he also will be a more conservative coach on the offensive side, nothing at all like former coach Larry Fedora.  USM could keep this game close for a half, and we don’t see either team lighting up the scoreboard.  Call it a 27-10 win for the Cornhuskers.

 

LSU missed a day of practice due to the hurricane, which might have a minor affect on their game preparation.  What draws us to this game is the fact that the betting public believes it will be a 56-0 game.  We tend to believe it will be more like a 38-7 game in favor of the Tigers.  We don’t believe Les Miles will ask Zach Mettenberger to do a lot other than hand the ball off to four exceptional running backs and throw an occasional play-action pass.  We would not be surprised if LSU ran the ball 50 times and passed just 15.  Our estimation is they would achieve 375-400 yards and 35-40 points.  North Texas might need an extra two quarters to reach double digits on the scoreboard.

 

About Teasers: In a teaser bet, you get to move the pointspread the number of points you have chosen and bet a parlay of teams based on how many points you are moving the line.  In a 10-point teaser, the standard number of teams in the parlay is three.  All three teams must cover the spread with 10 points added in your favor.

 

In a 13-point teaser, you must select four games in a standard parlay, and all four must win.  If in any instance any games in these parlays tie against the spread, you lose.  So, it is not advisable to play teasers very often, unless you think you are going to be correct about 85% of the time in each game in the 10-point teaser and 95% of the time for each game in a 13-point teaser

 

10-point Teasers

7.         South Carolina +3 ½ vs. Vanderbilt

            Eastern Michigan + 13 ½ vs. Ball State

            UCLA -6 ½ vs. Rice

 

8.         UNLV +18 ½ vs. Minnesota

            Michigan State +3 ½ vs. Boise State

            San Jose State +35 ½ vs. Stanford

 

9.         Notre Dame -5 ½ vs. Navy

            Syracuse +11 ½ vs. Northwestern

            Ohio State -13 vs. Miami (O)

 

10.       Illinois Pk vs. Western Michigan

            Tulsa +8 ½ vs. Iowa State

            Boston College +12 vs. Miami (Fla)

 

11.       Arizona Pk. vs. Toledo

            San Diego State +24 ½ vs. Washington

            Georgia Tech +17 ½ vs. Virginia Tech

 

13-point Teaser on Totals

12.       Central Florida & Akron UNDER 61 ½

            Penn State & Ohio U UNDER 57 ½

            Nebraska & Southern Miss UNDER 65 ½

            Georgia & Buffalo UNDER 66 ½

 

About Money Line Parlays: The money line is a separate betting line in which you bet on a team to win with no pointspread.  You get better than even money odds if you bet the underdog and weaker odds if you bet the favorite.  For instance, if Texas A&M and Texas State were playing, the money line might be Texas A&M -7000, Texas State +5000.  If you bet Texas A&M, you would have to wager $7,000 just to win $1.  If you bet $1 on Texas State, you would receive $5,000 if they pulled of the upset.  Most money line games are more like -125 +115 or -350 +275.  You would never bet one team at -7000.  That is where the money line parlay comes into play.  If you add teams to the bet, and all these teams must win for you to win, the odds come down.  There are several money line parlay calculators available online. 

 

We have chosen eight games where we believe there cannot be an upset.  All eight must win for us to win this parlay.  The calculator says the odds on these eight teams is -118, which means we are betting $118 to win $100.  We have to be correct 54.1% of the time to break even at -118.  We will play money line parlays that are under -120.

 

Money Line Parlay (@ -118)

13.       Connecticut over Massachusetts

            UCLA over Rice

            Notre Dame over Navy

            West Virginia over Marshall

            Ohio State over Miami (O)

            Nebraska over Southern Mississippi

            Florida over Bowling Green

            Texas over Wyoming

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 8–October 30-31, 2011

The PiRate Ratings For All League Champions Since 1960

The PiRate Ratings were not born until 1969, and then they only rated college football teams.  We began rating college basketball teams in the mid-1970’s and quit rating them after our founder stopped writing for newspaper publication in 1982.

 

In 1979, we began compiling NFL football ratings, but we have reversed engineered our formulas beginning with the 1960 season when the American Football League began.  At some point in the future, we may go back farther to the earlier days of the NFL and even the AAFC, but we do not have access to the necessary data as of yet.

 

Here is a list of the league champions from 1960 to 2010. 

 

Note: The PiRate Ratings were adjusted after the 2011 Super Bowl, and the ratings shown are the adjusted ratings in order to compare current teams to the historic ratings.  Remember, the PiRate Ratings are based on 100 being average.  A rating of 110 means the team is 10 points better than the average team (what would be considered an 8-8 team that scores 22.5 points per game and gives up 22.5 points per game to an average schedule of like 8-8 teams {6-6 in 12-game schedule and 7-7 in 14-game schedule}).

 

Year	NFL/NFC	Rating	AFL/AFC	Rating
1960	Philadelphia	108.2	Houston	96.7
1961	Green Bay	111.1	Houston	101.4
1962	Green Bay	113.8	Dallas	100.6
1963	Chicago	106.1	San Diego	104.4
1964	Cleveland	107.5	Buffalo	103.1
1965	Green Bay	109.0	Buffalo	100.7
1966	Green Bay	112.6	Kansas City	102.1
1967	Green Bay	110.3	Oakland	105.2
1968	Baltimore	111.1	New York Jets	104.6
1969	Minnesota	110.8	Kansas City	101.6
1970	Dallas	105.4	Baltimore	105.8
1971	Dallas	109.7	Miami	104.3
1972	Washington	108.5	Miami	109.5
1973	Minnesota	107.2	Miami	112.0
1974	Minnesota	107.1	Pittsburgh	109.3
1975	Dallas	108.2	Pittsburgh	110.1
1976	Minnesota	109.4	Oakland	111.6
1977	Dallas	110.3	Denver	106.1
1978	Dallas	109.7	Pittsburgh	109.9
1979	Los Angeles	103.8	Pittsburgh	110.1
1980	Philadelphia	107.8	Oakland	108.9
1981	San Francisco	110.2	Cincinnati	106.9
1982	Washington	109.4	Miami	107.8
1983	Washington	112.1	Los Angeles	110.5
1984	San Francisco	114.5	Miami	111.6
1985	Chicago	116.2	New England	105.6
1986	New York Giants	112.3	Denver	106.2
1987	Washington	105.2	Denver	104.5
1988	San Francisco	104.7	Cincinnati	105.8
1989	San Francisco	113.9	Denver	103.6
1990	New York Giants	108.7	Buffalo	108.6
1991	Washington	112.6	Buffalo	109.8
1992	Dallas	111.7	Buffalo	105.3
1993	Dallas	109.8	Buffalo	108.3
1994	San Francisco	110.1	San Diego	106.2
1995	Dallas	107.8	Pittsburgh	105.8
1996	Green Bay	110.5	New England	104.4
1997	Green Bay	109.6	Denver	109.2
1998	Atlanta	111.1	Denver	113.5
1999	St. Louis	110.4	Tennessee	108.6
2000	New York Giants	108.6	Baltimore	109.1
2001	St. Louis	110.6	New England	106.3
2002	Tampa Bay	108.2	Oakland	106.0
2003	Carolina	105.9	New England	112.4
2004	Philadelphia	108.5	New England	112.6
2005	Seattle	108.7	Pittsburgh	107.9
2006	Chicago	109.1	Indianapolis	108.7
2007	New York Giants	107.3	New England	115.7
2008	Arizona	103.1	Pittsburgh	110.1
2009	New Orleans	109.6	Indianapolis	110.1
2010	Green Bay	105.7	Pittsburgh	109.1

 

 

Back To The Present

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings.

 

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Dallas Cowboys	103.3	103.0	102.6	0.5	3	–	3	–	0	149	128
New York Giants	102.5	100.3	103.1	1.5	4	–	2	–	0	154	147
Philadelphia Eagles	101.7	101.3	101.6	2	2	–	4	–	0	145	145
Washington Redskins	93.7	95.5	95.0	3.5	3	–	3	–	0	116	116
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Green Bay Packers	110.5	110.4	108.8	2.5	7	–	0	–	0	230	141
Chicago Bears	103.9	103.3	104.7	3	4	–	3	–	0	170	150
Detroit Lions	101.2	103.4	104.3	2	5	–	2	–	0	194	137
Minnesota Vikings	96.5	96.9	95.5	4	1	–	6	–	0	148	178
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	109.8	107.1	106.1	3.5	5	–	2	–	0	239	158
Atlanta Falcons	103.9	102.6	104.7	2.5	4	–	3	–	0	158	163
Tampa Bay Bucaneers	98.5	99.0	99.4	3.5	4	–	3	–	0	131	169
Carolina Panthers	95.9	95.0	97.8	2.5	2	–	5	–	0	166	183
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Francisco 49ers	104.4	106.3	104.8	3	5	–	1	–	0	167	97
Seattle Seahawks	94.1	94.9	93.4	2	2	–	4	–	0	97	128
Arizona Cardinals	91.7	91.9	94.0	2.5	1	–	5	–	0	116	153
St. Louis Rams	90.1	87.8	87.6	1.5	0	–	6	–	0	56	171
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New England Patriots	107.6	108.9	105.7	3.5	5	–	1	–	0	185	135
New York Jets	104.3	104.3	104.9	3	4	–	3	–	0	172	152
Buffalo Bills	100.1	102.1	104.2	2.5	4	–	2	–	0	188	147
Miami Dolphins	95.0	93.8	93.5	3	0	–	6	–	0	90	146
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Baltimore Ravens	106.9	107.4	106.3	3.5	4	–	2	–	0	155	83
Pittsburgh Steelers	105.6	104.4	104.0	2.5	5	–	2	–	0	151	122
Cincinnati Bengals	97.9	100.6	100.8	1	4	–	2	–	0	137	111
Cleveland Browns	94.1	95.0	96.9	3	3	–	3	–	0	97	120
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Houston Texans	106.7	105.3	104.0	2	4	–	3	–	0	182	131
Jacksonville Jaguars	98.5	96.5	96.1	2	2	–	5	–	0	84	139
Tennessee Titans	97.1	97.0	96.0	1.5	3	–	3	–	0	112	135
Indianapolis Colts	91.7	91.4	88.1	3.5	0	–	7	–	0	111	225
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	103.0	102.3	101.1	2.5	4	–	2	–	0	141	136
Kansas City Chiefs	99.4	97.8	98.7	1	3	–	3	–	0	105	150
Oakland Raiders	97.5	99.7	99.6	2	4	–	3	–	0	160	178
Denver Broncos	93.7	95.1	96.8	1	2	–	4	–	0	123	155

 

And here are the PiRate Ratings for this week’s games.

 

(N) denotes Neutral Site

Vegas Line and Totals as of Tuesday, October 25, 2011  4:30 PM EDT

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
TENNESSEE	Indianapolis	8.9	9.1	11.4	9	43 1/2
HOUSTON	Jacksonville	10.2	10.8	9.9	9 1/2	40 1/2
CAROLINA	Minnesota	1.9	0.6	4.8	3 1/2	47 1/2
New Orleans	ST. LOUIS	17.7	17.3	16.5	15 1/2	47 1/2
BALTIMORE	Arizona	18.7	19.0	15.8	13	44
NEW YORK GIANTS	Miami	9.0	8.0	11.1	10	43
Buffalo (N) (Toronto)	Washington	6.4	6.6	9.2	6	46
Detroit	DENVER	5.0	5.8	5.0	3 1/2	44
PITTSBURGH	New England	1.0	-1.5	1.3	-3	51
SAN FRANCISCO	Cleveland	12.8	13.8	10.4	9 1/2	38 1/2
Cincinnati	SEATTLE	2.3	4.2	5.9	3	38
PHILADELPHIA	Dallas	0.4	0.3	1.0	3 1/2	50 1/2
San Diego	KANSAS CITY	2.6	3.5	1.4	3 1/2	44

 

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 7–October 23-24, 2011

Two Big Rivalries Renewed This Week

First, let us give ourselves a hearty slap on the back for jinxing the possible monumental Thanksgiving Day game between Green Bay and Detroit.  The 49ers had the last slap laugh in that matter.

 

Speaking of Green Bay, the Packers and Vikings renew their rivalry at Lambeau Field this Sunday.  In the AFC, the Chiefs and Raiders square off in Oakland.  These two games are two of the best all-time rivalry games over the last 50 years.  In this writer’s opinion, both rivalries matured at the same time the Super Bowl came into existence.  Let’s take a look at the key games to show you that you never can predict these games.

 

Green Bay vs. Minnesota

1966

The Packers were coming off an NFL Championship, their third in the last five years, and Coach Vince Lombardi’s team was headed to a 12-2 regular season and win in Super Bowl I.  The Vikings were just 2-4-1 when they ventured to Lambeau Field to face the 6-1 Packers.  As usual between these teams in those days, it was a hard-fought trench war that pre-dated the “Black and Blue Division” moniker given the old NFC Central Division.

 

Green Bay led this game 17-10 as the fourth quarter began, but the underdog Vikings scored 10 points in the final minutes to upset the Packers 20-17.  Big plodding fullback Bill Brown blasted into the end zone from a yard out to cap a final drive that produced the winning points.  It wouldn’t be the last time Brown pulled off that feat.

 

1967

Once again, the Packers were headed to a Super Bowl title, while the Vikings were going nowhere.  In fact, coming into Lambeau Field, the Purple and White sported an 0-4 record, while Green Bay had yet to lose a game.

 

The weather was cold and dreary, and the game turned into a defensive struggle for most of the day.  Green Bay led 7-0 with less than a quarter to play, when Brown did it again.  He capped a drive with a one yard plunge up the middle to tie the score, and then he converted a couple of first downs to set up a winning Fred Cox field goal, as Minnesota won 10-7.

 

1970

This time, the shoe was on the other foot.  Green Bay was no longer a power, while Minnesota was the defending NFL Champions (They had won the final NFL title by defeating Cleveland, but lost in the Super Bowl to Kansas City).

 

Coach Bud Grant and his Purple People Eaters were on their way to a second consecutive 12-2 season, while Green Bay was headed to a 6-8 season in what would prove to be Coach Phil Bengston’s last year, and Bart Starr’s last full year as the regular quarterback. 

 

The Packers had lost to Detroit 40-0 a couple weeks earlier, and nobody gave Green Bay a chance even at home.  The Packers pulled off the surprise of the week with a 13-10 upset.  Donny Anderson ran the sweep almost like the good ole days, and Dave Hampton returned a kickoff for a touchdown.

 

1972

In 1972, Coach Dan Devine took the Packers to their last full season (not counting a 5-3-1 record in the strike-shortened 1982 season) division championship prior to Brett Favre’s run.  The Packers were 4-2, while the Vikings were 2-4 as they squared off in Green Bay.

 

The Purple People Eaters ate quarterback Scott Hunter in the fourth quarter, returning two interceptions for touchdowns as Minnesota pulled off the 27-13 upset.

 

Oakland vs. Kansas City

Some fans say this rivalry became intense when the Kansas City Athletics baseball team moved to Oakland.  However, the rivalry goes back much farther.  It was already intense when the Chiefs were still the Dallas Texans, but it became fierce and hated once the American Football League had an agreement in place to merge in four years and would play the NFL champion in the Super Bowl.

 

1966

The Chiefs were headed to the AFL title and would represent the league in Super Bowl I.  The Raiders were a decent team but lacked consistency at quarterback.  When these two squared off at Municipal Stadium in Kansas City, Oakland was 2-3, while Kansas City was 4-1 having split with the two-time defending AFL champion Bills.

 

On this day, the Raiders got what they needed from their quarterback.  Future Raiders’ head coach Tom Flores threw for 300+ yards and three touchdowns, including a 75-yard strike to former Heisman Trophy winner Billy Cannon, who had been converted into an end by Coach John Rauch.

 

Meanwhile, the tough Raider defense knocked Chiefs’ running back Mike Garrett out of the game after he had rushed just three times for a loss of two yards.  Garrett had entered the game averaging better than six yards per carry.  Oakland won 34-13.

 

1968

After the Raiders destroyed the rest of the league in 1967 with their new quarterback, the mad bomber Daryle Lamonica, it was expected that they would repeat and possibly go 14-0. 

 

Kansas City rebounded from a 9-5 season and looked more like the Green Bay Packers than an AFL team.  They ran the ball with power and speed, and when defenses tried to stop the run, quarterback Len Dawson threw long passes to Otis Taylor and Fred Arbanas. 

 

Both teams entered this game at 4-1, having lost to the two best remaining teams in the AFL.  Kansas City lost by a point to Joe Namath and the Jets, while Oakland had been upset by a San Diego team that would forge a three-way tie at 8-2 later in the season before collapsing after Thanksgiving.

 

This game was supposed to be the game of the year, but something happened leading up to it.  The Chiefs suffered injuries to their entire receiving corps.  Coach Hank Stram did not have a single healthy receiver.  Rather than sign multiple receivers off the waiver wire or try to make do with taxi squad players, he did what only Stram would ever think of doing.  He installed a full-house T-formation offense straight out of the 1940’s.  He even used two tight ends and no wide receivers.

 

Of course, an offense like that was easy to stuff and completely shut down—correct?  No, not correct, as the Chiefs ran power plays, trap plays, and misdirection plays that the Silver and Black could not stop.

 

Over and over, Kansas City sustained long, time-consuming drives.  Dawson threw three play-action passes all day and completed two for 16 yards, one of them to a back.

 

The three Chief backs, Mike Garrett, Robert Holmes, and Wendell Hayes teamed for 293 rushing yards on 57 attempts.  Kansas City upset the Raiders 24-10, and this game may have been the beginning of the end for Coach Rauch and his unbeatable team.

 

1968, part two

The Raiders and Chiefs ended the regular season tied at 12-2, and the AFL had a playoff game to determine which Western Division team would face the Jets for the AFL Championship a week later.

 

Kansas City had given up just 170 points in 14 games, which was 29 points better than any other defense in the nine year history of the AFL.  Oakland had nearly equaled its offensive mayhem of 1967, scoring 453 points.  This game was expected to be the best game ever played in the AFL.

 

It wasn’t.  It was over before halftime, as the Raiders destroyed the Chiefs 41-6.  Lamonica threw five touchdown passes on his way to almost 350 yards passing.  Fred Biletnikoff caught three of those TD tosses.

 

The vaunted Kansas City running game ground to a halt, as the terrific trio gained just 61 yards on 22 attempts.

 

1969

In the last season of the AFL, the league instituted a new playoff rule.  Because the league had expanded to 10 teams, and because the NFL had four divisions with four playoff teams, the AFL decided to add the runners-up from its two divisions to the playoff mix.  Thus, the second place team in each division would play at the first place team in the opposite division, with the two winners playing for the AFL title a week later.

 

It was no surprise that Oakland and Kansas City won the two playoff spots in the Western Division.  However, Oakland was clearly the better team.  Under first year head coach John Madden, the Raiders had gone 12-1-1, losing only to the Cincinnati Bengal’s great passer Greg Cook before he suffered a career-ending injury.

 

Kansas City finished 11-3, relying on great defense and just enough offense without making mistakes. 

 

The Raiders beat the Chiefs handily three times that year.  The first did not count because it came in the preseason, but the other two were regular season games.

 

In the opening round of the playoffs, the Raiders humiliated Houston 56-7 in what was the second worst playoff margin ever.  Kansas City prevented the New York Jets from repeating as World Champions, which set up a fourth meeting between the two bitter rivals.

 

Coach Stram prepared well hoping to stop Lamonica and Biletnikoff and making Oakland beat them with their ground game.  Oakland did not cow-tow to any team and refused to alter their playing style for any opponent, especially the team they hated more than they hated the hippies across the bay.

 

Lamonica did not last the full 60 minutes.  A sack late midway through the third quarter ended his day, and greybeard George Blanda was forced into action.  He could not move the Raiders’ offense, and Kansas City held on for a 17-7 win.  The Chiefs picked off four Oakland passes and became the final AFL Champion.

 

1970

Of all the rivalry games between these two teams, this was the fiercest of all.  Not only did it produce multiple free-for-alls, including one of the worst bench-clearing brawls in football history, it even produced a rules change.

 

Neither team was great by this time.  The Colts and Dolphins were now the two best teams in the new AFC.  However, the new AFC West was going to be won by one of these two teams.

 

When the two heavyweights faced off in Kansas City, it was the Chiefs that dominated the game for most of the day.  However, they could only muster two touchdowns and a field goal and led 17-14 in the fourth quarter.

 

The Chiefs had the ball in their own territory and only needed a couple first downs to run out the clock.  They got the first one and had a crucial third down play coming up.  Quarterback Dawson rolled out as if to pass and then saw enough running room to pick up the first down, even on his old legs.  He sprinted to the far side of the field and dove past the first down marker for an apparent first down that would seal the game.

 

However, that was not the end of the play.  The Raiders’ biggest villain of all, Ben Davidson (who sported a handlebar mustache before A’s pitcher Rollie Fingers), speared Dawson after the play was over.

 

Otis Taylor then threw a punch at Davidson, and the game turned into a professional wrestling match, except the punches and fighting were not pre-planned.  Both benches cleared, and the referees had a hard time restoring order.  When they separated the two teams, they held a conference.  Their decision was to toss out both Davidson and Taylor and call offsetting personal foul penalties. 

 

In those days, offsetting penalties after the end of the play nullified the play, so Kansas City had to convert the third down play again.  This time, Oakland stopped them and forced the Chiefs to punt.  The Raiders had just enough time to complete two passes and attempt a long field goal.  Blanda converted from just across midfield (goalposts were at the goal line in those days), and the Raiders left Kansas City with a 17-17 tie.

 

As it turned out, this tie game was all that prevented Kansas City from winning the division.  Oakland finished 8-4-2, while Kansas City finished 7-5-2.  Both teams would have been 8-5-1 had the fight not affected the outcome of the game.  The Chiefs would have won the tiebreaker.

 

Because of that game, the NFL changed the dead ball personal foul rule so that it could not nullify a play after it happened.

 

The PiRate Ratings For Week 7

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New York Giants	102.5	99.7	103.2	1.5	4	–	2	–	0	154	147
Dallas Cowboys	101.9	103.2	102.0	0.5	2	–	3	–	0	115	121
Philadelphia Eagles	101.7	101.6	99.2	2	2	–	4	–	0	145	145
Washington Redskins	95.8	98.2	101.0	3.5	3	–	2	–	0	96	83
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Green Bay Packers	110.9	110.0	109.0	2	6	–	0	–	0	197	114
Chicago Bears	103.6	102.9	104.4	2.5	3	–	3	–	0	146	132
Detroit Lions	103.0	105.4	105.8	3	5	–	1	–	0	178	114
Minnesota Vikings	96.1	96.5	95.3	4	1	–	5	–	0	121	145
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	106.3	104.7	104.1	3.5	4	–	2	–	0	177	151
Atlanta Falcons	102.1	100.4	99.9	3.5	3	–	3	–	0	135	147
Tampa Bay Bucaneers	98.8	98.4	100.0	2.5	4	–	2	–	0	113	145
Carolina Panthers	93.8	95.5	96.3	2.5	1	–	5	–	0	133	163
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Francisco 49ers	104.4	106.7	104.3	2.5	5	–	1	–	0	167	97
Seattle Seahawks	94.5	95.6	94.8	1.5	2	–	3	–	0	94	122
Arizona Cardinals	92.0	93.2	95.1	3	1	–	4	–	0	96	121
St. Louis Rams	91.5	91.0	87.9	2	0	–	5	–	0	49	137
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New England Patriots	107.6	108.8	105.6	2.5	5	–	1	–	0	185	135
New York Jets	103.7	104.1	101.2	3	3	–	3	–	0	145	131
Buffalo Bills	100.1	102.2	105.4	3.5	4	–	2	–	0	188	147
Miami Dolphins	96.1	94.6	91.7	3	0	–	5	–	0	75	128
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Baltimore Ravens	110.4	110.2	109.9	3.5	4	–	1	–	0	148	71
Pittsburgh Steelers	105.3	102.9	102.1	3	4	–	2	–	0	119	102
Cincinnati Bengals	97.9	100.1	101.5	2.5	4	–	2	–	0	137	111
Cleveland Browns	93.7	93.8	95.7	1	2	–	3	–	0	91	117
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Houston Texans	103.7	102.5	103.4	2	3	–	3	–	0	141	124
Tennessee Titans	100.1	100.6	101.7	3.5	3	–	2	–	0	105	94
Indianapolis Colts	95.2	92.4	91.9	2	0	–	6	–	0	104	163
Jacksonville Jaguars	94.8	93.5	92.7	1.5	1	–	5	–	0	72	132
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	103.6	101.5	101.6	1	4	–	1	–	0	120	109
Oakland Raiders	100.3	101.6	102.6	2	4	–	2	–	0	160	150
Kansas City Chiefs	96.6	93.2	94.8	1	2	–	3	–	0	77	150
Denver Broncos	92.6	95.2	95.9	2.5	1	–	4	–	0	105	140

 

This Week’s Games (Tally ho, to Wembley we go!)

Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 7: October 23-24, 2011
Vegas Line as of Tuesday, October 18, 2:00 PM EDT

 

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Chicago  (n)	Tampa Bay (London)	4.8	4.5	4.4	1	44
CAROLINA	Washington	0.5	-0.2	-2.2	2 1/2	44
NEW YORK JETS	San Diego	3.1	5.6	2.6	-2	45
CLEVELAND	Seattle	0.2	-0.8	1.9	3	40 1/2
Houston	TENNESSEE	0.1	-1.6	-1.8	-3	44 1/2
MIAMI	Denver	6.5	2.4	-1.2	2	42 1/2
DETROIT	Atlanta	3.9	8.0	8.9	3 1/2	47 1/2
OAKLAND	Kansas City	5.7	10.4	9.8	3 1/2	41 1/2
Pittsburgh	ARIZONA	10.3	6.7	4.0	3 1/2	42
DALLAS	St. Louis	10.9	12.7	14.6	13	43
Green Bay	MINNESOTA	10.8	9.5	9.7	8	47
NEW ORLEANS	Indianapolis	14.6	15.8	15.7	14	48
Baltimore	JACKSONVILLE	14.1	15.2	15.7	7 1/2	39

 

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 6–October 16-17, 2011

Could Thanksgiving Day Become The NFL Equivalent Of Turkey Day 1971?

In our college ratings entry earlier this week, we discussed the various “Game of the Century” games since 1946.  We concluded that the 1971 Nebraska-Oklahoma game was the best of the best.  Could Thanksgiving Day this year prove to be the NFL equivalent of 1971?

 

Green Bay and Detroit both sit at 5-0 with five more games to play before they face off in Detroit on Thanksgiving morning.  The NFL has never had a contest of 10-0 teams.  The chances that both the Lions and Packers will both win their next five games are infinitesimal, but it is okay to look forward to that small possibility.

 

In 1990, the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers both started 10-0 and faced off two weeks later.  Unfortunately, both teams lost in game 11, making them 10-1 when they played.  The 49ers won that game, but the Giants won the Super Bowl.

 

In 1967, the Los Angeles Rams hosted the Baltimore Colts in the season finale, with the Rams entering the game at 10-1-2 and the Colts at 11-0-2.  The Rams won, knocking the 11-1-2 Colts out of the playoffs!

 

On Thanksgiving Day of 1962, the Lions were 8-2 when they upset the 10-0 Packers 26-14, after leading 23-0 at the half.  Bart Starr was sacked 10 times that day, but the Packers recovered to win out and take their second consecutive NFL Championship, while the Lions missed out on the Championship Game at 11-3-0 and had to settle for a Playoff Bowl win over Pittsburgh.

 

No Offense, But

Offense is dominating defense after five weeks in the 2011 NFL season.  The 32 NFL Teams are averaging greater than 370 yards per game and passing for more than 259 yards per game.  The average quarterback playing every snap, or close to it, will top 4,100 passing yards this season.

 

Tom Brady is on pace to pass for almost 6,000 yards, while Drew Brees is on pace to become the first quarterback to pass the ball 700 times in a season.

 

Wes Welker is on pace to catch 144 passes and gain 2,368 yards, while Calvin Johnson is on pace to catch 29 touchdown passes.

 

The average NFL team is scoring just over 23 points per game, which means it is taking more than 16 yards to score a point.  That number is quite high.  13 yards is the norm.

 

Keep Losing and We Might Get LUCKy

To the worst team in the league goes the first pick in the 2013 draft, and barring a devastating injury, that first pick will be the most important pick since the Indianapolis Colts selected Peyton Manning in 1998.

 

Andrew Luck has the capability of becoming the next Manning, next John Elway, next Tom Brady, and next Drew Brees. After five weeks, Miami, Indianapolis, and St. Louis are still winless.  The Colts should have Manning back next year, and he should be good for another two or three years.  The Rams have Sam Bradford, and even though Luck is better than Bradford, it would be like the St. Louis Cardinals trading away Stan Musial for Ted Williams.  The Dolphins need a quarterback, and Miami is a great location for a celebrity player of his caliber.  Of the one-win teams, Minnesota and Arizona could take an upgrade at quarterback, but they have large investments in Donovan McNabb and Kevin Kolb.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New York Giants	102.5	99.2	101.5	1	3	–	2	–	0	127	123
Dallas Cowboys	101.2	102.8	99.2	1	2	–	2	–	0	99	101
Philadelphia Eagles	100.4	98.9	98.0	1.5	1	–	4	–	0	125	132
Washington Redskins	97.1	99.5	102.2	3.5	3	–	1	–	0	83	63
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Green Bay Packers	110.9	109.1	110.3	3	5	–	0	–	0	173	111
Detroit Lions	105.1	106.3	107.3	4	5	–	0	–	0	159	89
Chicago Bears	100.4	100.9	101.7	2	2	–	3	–	0	107	122
Minnesota Vikings	99.3	97.1	96.2	4	1	–	4	–	0	111	106
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New Orleans Saints	108.0	104.7	105.7	2	4	–	1	–	0	157	125
Atlanta Falcons	101.3	99.3	100.2	3	2	–	3	–	0	104	130
Tampa Bay Bucaneers	97.1	97.6	97.8	4.5	3	–	2	–	0	87	125
Carolina Panthers	94.6	95.6	96.0	3	1	–	4	–	0	116	132
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Francisco 49ers	102.3	104.1	103.0	2.5	4	–	1	–	0	142	78
Seattle Seahawks	94.5	96.8	95.5	3.5	2	–	3	–	0	94	122
Arizona Cardinals	92.0	94.7	94.8	3	1	–	4	–	0	96	121
St. Louis Rams	91.5	91.0	89.5	3	0	–	4	–	0	46	113
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
New England Patriots	108.3	107.6	106.3	3.5	4	–	1	–	0	165	119
New York Jets	102.3	102.4	99.8	4	2	–	3	–	0	121	125
Buffalo Bills	100.1	103.3	106.4	3	4	–	1	–	0	164	120
Miami Dolphins	97.5	95.0	93.7	1.5	0	–	4	–	0	69	104
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Baltimore Ravens	109.3	108.0	108.2	3	3	–	1	–	0	119	57
Pittsburgh Steelers	107.8	104.3	102.2	4.5	3	–	2	–	0	102	89
Cincinnati Bengals	97.1	100.9	102.0	2	3	–	2	–	0	110	94
Cleveland Browns	93.5	95.8	96.1	1	2	–	2	–	0	74	93
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
Houston Texans	104.8	102.2	104.0	2.5	3	–	2	–	0	127	95
Tennessee Titans	100.1	101.1	102.3	3.5	3	–	2	–	0	105	94
Indianapolis Colts	96.0	93.5	92.7	2.5	0	–	5	–	0	87	136
Jacksonville Jaguars	92.3	93.9	92.1	2	1	–	4	–	0	59	115
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp
San Diego Chargers	103.6	101.3	102.0	2	4	–	1	–	0	120	109
Oakland Raiders	100.5	102.5	102.0	2	3	–	2	–	0	136	133
Kansas City Chiefs	96.6	94.8	95.2	1	2	–	3	–	0	77	150
Denver Broncos	92.6	95.8	96.2	1	1	–	4	–	0	105	140

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 6: October 16-17, 2011
Vegas Line as of Tuesday, October 11
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
GREEN BAY	St. Louis	22.4	21.1	23.8	15	48
PITTSBURGH	Jacksonville	20.0	14.9	14.6	12	40
WASHINGTON	Philadelphia	0.2	4.1	7.7	-1	47 1/2
DETROIT	San Francisco	6.8	6.2	8.3	5	46 1/2
ATLANTA	Carolina	9.7	6.7	7.2	4	51
CINCINNATI	Indianapolis	3.1	9.4	11.3	7	40 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS	Buffalo	3.4	-3.1	-3.9	3 1/2	50
BALTIMORE	Houston	7.5	8.8	7.2	7 1/2	45
OAKLAND	Cleveland	9.0	8.7	7.9	6	44 1/2
NEW ENGLAND	Dallas	10.6	8.3	10.6	7	55
New Orleans	TAMPA BAY	6.4	2.6	3.4	4 1/2	49 1/2
CHICAGO	Minnesota	3.1	5.8	7.5	3	42
NEW YORK JETS	Miami	8.8	11.4	10.1	7	43