PiRate Bracketnomics: 12 Teams Can Win It All
We hope you took time to read Tuesday’s Bracketnomics 505 course. You need to read that first to understand the criteria used here at PiRate Central.
Using said criteria devised by our founder, we have isolated 12 teams capable of winning six games in the NCAA Tournament.
Unlike last year when there were four dominant teams, the dominance is diluted somewhat this season. Last year, more than 10 teams could be immediately eliminated based on a negative R+T rating. This season, only two teams (Mississippi State and Ohio State) fail to possess a positive R+T rating. Thus, we will pick the Bulldogs’ and Buckeyes’ opponents to beat them.
Here is a look alphabetically at those 12 teams who best meet the criteria showing they are capable of going all the way.
Connecticut: The Huskies outscore their opposition by an average of 13.3 points per game. They shoot 9.3% better than their opponents. They own a rebounding margin of 8.4. Their R+T is 7.6. In most years, this would be good enough for a Sweet 16 berth and possible Elite 8 run. This year, it is good enough to get them to the title game. The Huskies will win their first game by as many as they want. They will win game two rather easily. In the Sweet 16, they could run into a bump if they face Washington, but they will clobber Purdue if the Boilermakers make it to Glendale, Arizona. An Elite 8 match against either Missouri or Memphis will be a tough and exciting game.
Duke: The Blue Devils outscore their opposition by an average of 12.2 points per game. They shoot only 1.8% better than the opposition, and that is their one weakness. They out-rebound their opponents by 3 and have a 4.4 turnover margin, so they usually benefit with more scoring attempts. Their R+T of 12 is good enough to get them through the first two rounds. In the Sweet 16, they will face either UCLA, Villanova, or Virginia Commonwealth. The Blue Devils would be expected to beat any of these three, but it wouldn’t be a cinch. The Bruins also make this list.
Kansas: The defending National Champions are considerably weaker this year, but in a season where the NCAA is weaker, the Jayhawks have a shot at getting to Detroit. Kansas outscores its opponents by 11.3 points per game. They outshoot them by 9.1%, which is one of the best in the Dance. They have a 7.3 rebounding advantage. Their weakness is in turnover margin. They don’t commit a bevy of turnovers, but they don’t force many this year. That could hurt them if they face a team that can steal the ball. Syracuse and Missouri exploited them in regular season victories. A trip to the Sweet 16 is expected, but I think they could be in for a big shock in their first round game with North Dakota State. It may take 36 minutes for KU to put this game away. If they face Michigan State in a regional semi-final, the Jayhawks should win a tough, physical game. Louisville might be too much to handle in an Elite 8 regional final.
Louisville: Rick Pitino has taken Providence and Kentucky to the Final Four. Last year, he came close with UL. This year, it looks like the Cardinals have the horses to make it to Detroit. UL outscores their opposition by 12.3 points per game. They shoot 5.8% better than their opponents. They have a 2.5 rebounding advantage, a 2.7 turnover margin, and they average 9.3 steals per game. Their R+T is 8.5. Except for scoring margin, none of the other stats are dominant, but then again all of them are really good. They have no weaknesses.
Memphis: Memphis wouldn’t normally qualify because they are not a member of one of the big six conferences. However, the Tigers’ schedule was as strong as teams like Wake Forest and UCLA. Just like last year, Memphis has what it takes to play six games in the tournament. The Tigers outscore their opponents by 17.2 points per game, which qualifies them for elite dominance. They shoot 8.1% better than their opposition. Their rebounding margin is 6.2, and their turnover margin is 3.3. They average 8.8 steals per game, and their R+T rating is a whopping 13.2. This is a team that should cruise to the Elite 8, and then we would favor them over Connecticut. Missouri could be a tough out in the Sweet 16, but the Tigers fit the criteria of a national champion.
Missouri: Coach Mike Anderson was an assistant at Arkansas when the Razorbacks made won the national title in 1994 and made it to the finals in 1995. His Missouri Tigers play the same 40-minute, full-court game that Arkansas played in those days. These type of teams can make up for so-so rebounding with exceptional turnover margin by way of steals. The Tigers are a force to be reckoned with this year. Missouri outscores their opponents by 14.6 points per game. They outshoot them by 5.7%. While they barely win the battle of the boards by an average of 0.4 per game, their turnover margin is 6.5, and they average a tournament best 10.6 steals per game. With an R+T rating of 16.9, Missouri gets many chances to go on scoring runs. In tight tournament games, as little as an 8-0 run in two minutes is enough to decide the game. We like MU’s chances of winning their first two and getting to the Sweet 16. They will have to face Memphis, and they will meet a team that can neutralize the press. Although we believe Memphis will win and move on to the Final Four, Missouri just may be the toughest competition Memphis faces before Detroit.
North Carolina: We see the Tar Heels joining Memphis in Detroit. UNC has the second best looking criteria after Memphis. The Tar Heels outscore their opponents by an average of 17.4 points per game. They shoot 6.5% better than they allow. Their rebound margin is 7.3, and their turnover margin is 3.2. The Heels average 8.5 steals per game, and their R+T is 13.8. Their path to the Final Four is the easiest of any of the 12 teams listed here. Radford will be little more than a scrimmage against the Tar Heel scrubs. Neither LSU nor Butler has what it takes to beat them in round two. Gonzaga could compete for a long time, but the Tar Heels would eventually overpower them. In the region finals, UNC would handle Oklahoma, Clemson, Syracuse, or Arizona State. The only thing that could keep the Tar Heels out of the Final Four is the injury to Ty Lawson. If he can play up to his normal standards, we just cannot see another South Regional team beating them.
Pittsburgh: The Panthers defeated Connecticut twice but lost to Louisville. They should be able to beat almost any team that tries to play physically against them, but they could run into trouble against fast teams that can score in transition. Pitt outscores their opponents by 13.3 points per game. They shoot 7.3% better than they allow. Their rebounding margin of 9.8 is awesome, and their turnover margin of 1.1 further allows them extra scoring chances. They average 7.1 steals per game, and their R+T rating is 11.7. This is a team very capable of making it to Detroit. They will handle East Tennessee with ease in round one and give their regulars ample rest. Their round two game is going to be interesting, as both Tennessee and Oklahoma State have the necessary tools to aggravate the Panthers (much like the way Louisville did). We still believe Pitt can get by either team and make the Sweet 16. Their four possible Sweet 16 opponents do not have the skills to beat them, so if Pittsburgh gets to the Sweet 16, they will advance to the Elite 8 as well. A regional final game against Duke would be a terrific game with both teams having a 50% chance of winning. Ditto is they face Villanova, but the Panthers have revenge on their side in a match against the Wildcats.
U C L A: This edition of Bruins is nothing like the last three editions in the Big Dance. This UCLA team looks more like one of the Bruin teams from the Gary Cunningham/Larry Farmer/Walt Hazard years. UCLA outscores their opponents by 12.7 points per game. They shoot 4.9% better than they allow. Their rebounding margin is 3.8, and their turnover margin is 3.6. They steal the ball 8.4 times per game, and their R+T is 11.1. Much like Louisville, the Bruins don’t really dominate in any phase, but they are really good in all phases. As a 6-seed, they are not expected to make it past the field of 32, but it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if Ben Howland guides them back to the Elite 8. Their first round game against VCU should be nip and tuck for a long time. VCU won’t be able to rebound against them, and the Bruins should get enough offensive boards to win. In the second round, we believe UCLA can upset Villanova. They won’t get by Duke if they must play them for a trip to the Final Four, but an Elite 8 appearance would be a great accomplishment in a rebuilding season.
Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons are the third ACC team with a good shot of advancing deep into the tournament. Wake outscores their opponents by an average of 11.1 points per game. They shoot the ball 9.3% better than they allow. Their rebounding margin is 6. Their 0.2 turnover margin is basically nil, but they do average 8.5 steals per game. Their R+T rating is just 6.4 due to the fact that they tend to become turnover prone occasionally. The Demon Deacons received a favorable draw for the opening weekend. We see them moving on to the Sweet 16, but they will face a Louisville team that just may be too much in the third round. It should be a great game.
West Virginia: This team looks much like many of Bob Huggins’ Cincinnati teams. The Mountaineers are the polar opposite of the team that made a run under former coach John Beilein. They are a dark horse team to make a deep run. WVU outscores their opponents by 10.8 points per game. They only outshoot those opponents by 1.1%, and that will eventually be their downfall. They own healthy rebounding (5.9) and turnover (3.6) margins. They average just 6.8 steals per game, but their R+T rating is 11.8. This team will fly under the radar, but the Mountaineers could upset Kansas in the second round. If they can upset the Jayhawks, West Virginia has the horses to make it to Detroit. They lost twice to Louisville, by six and three points, so they can even upset the Cardinals given a third chance. We give WVU a 45% chance of beating Kansas and a 33% chance of advancing to the Elite 8.
Predictions For Bracketeers
This is a pressure-filled year for us. How can we match the success of our founder? Hopefully, we can do so by carefully following his theories and data. Plus, we talked to him, and he endorsed our picks.
So, here goes. In the East, three Pittsburgh, Duke, and UCLA all score 14 points in the criteria. Duke and Pitt have stronger schedules, so we will call for the Blue Devils and Panthers to meet in the Elite 8. We give a slight edge to Coach K’s troops, but that is almost negligible. We do not see the East Regional winner winning the national championship.
In the South, North Carolina is overpowering. The Tar Heels have no rival in this bracket. Second seed Oklahoma and third seed Syracuse do not qualify for a spot in the top 12. Fourth seed Gonzaga does qualify, and we will pick the Bulldogs to be the only team capable of stopping the Tar Heels. We give Gonzaga a 15-20% chance of winning in this probable regional semifinal game. North Carolina should then dispose of the East Regional Champion and advance to the title game.
In the Midwest, top-seed Louisville will have to dispose of defending champ Kansas to make the Final Four. Fourth-seed Wake Forest cannot be ignored here. Six-seed West Virginia can compete with anybody in this region, making the Midwest the strongest region overall. We’re going to go with Huggy Bear and his West Virginia Mountaineers to sneak into the Final Four.
Memphis should emerge in the West, besting Missouri and then Connecticut in Glendale, Arizona. The Tigers will then take care of business in the Final Four semifinal round to take on North Carolina.
In the National Championship Game, we look for Coach Cal to finally get his championship trophy. We are picking Memphis to make up for their final minute lapse in the 2008 Championship Game and win the title this year. It could be the start of a major dynasty, as the Tigers have an awesome group of recruits coming in for 2010.
The Stats On All The Teams
When you see a stat in bold, it meets the minimum amount to qualify for an exceptional stat. When you see it also underlined, it strongly meets the qualifying amount. When it is also in italics, it is a dominating statistic. Strength of Schedule (SOS) is used solely when pitting one team against another.
| Team |
Pts
|
FG%
|
Reb
|
TO
|
Stl
|
R+T
|
SOS
|
| Akron |
7.0
|
1.9
|
-0.9
|
4.1
|
7.7
|
6.7
|
48.91
|
| Alabama St. |
6.1
|
7.5
|
1.2
|
-0.8
|
5.6
|
0.1
|
40.46
|
| American |
6.1
|
7.2
|
2.9
|
0.4
|
5.4
|
3.4
|
46.85
|
| Arizona |
3.8
|
3.9
|
2.5
|
-0.7
|
6.0
|
1.5
|
56.79
|
| Arizona St. |
9.4
|
7.3
|
1.7
|
0.6
|
5.9
|
2.5
|
56.35
|
| Binghamton |
3.4
|
2.9
|
-1.6
|
1.5
|
7.0
|
0.9
|
46.95
|
| Boston College |
4.4
|
2.3
|
2.9
|
-0.8
|
6.2
|
1.7
|
55.16
|
| B Y U |
12.7
|
8.5
|
4.2
|
2.5
|
7.2
|
8.5
|
54.62
|
| Butler |
10.2
|
5.7
|
3.3
|
0.9
|
6.1
|
4.6
|
53.15
|
| Cal St. Northridge |
3.8
|
3.7
|
3.6
|
-0.4
|
9.0
|
2.7
|
48.83
|
| California |
6.7
|
4.5
|
2.3
|
0.5
|
4.9
|
2.9
|
56.00
|
| Chattanooga |
0.8
|
0.6
|
3.3
|
-1.1
|
6.3
|
1.6
|
49.33
|
| Clemson |
10.8
|
3.5
|
1.6
|
2.9
|
9.4
|
8.1
|
56.07
|
| Cleveland St. |
7.2
|
2.6
|
0.6
|
3.5
|
8.7
|
7.9
|
52.27
|
| Connecticut |
13.3
|
9.3
|
8.4
|
-0.6
|
5.8
|
7.6
|
57.42
|
| Cornell |
9.8
|
6.4
|
3.1
|
0.8
|
6.7
|
4.4
|
45.31
|
| Dayton |
6.0
|
3.2
|
5.3
|
1.0
|
6.3
|
6.8
|
53.19
|
| Duke |
12.2
|
1.8
|
3.0
|
4.4
|
8.5
|
12.0
|
60.86
|
| E T S U |
8.6
|
6.2
|
1.5
|
2.5
|
8.5
|
6.6
|
46.28
|
| Florida St. |
4.1
|
4.6
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
8.5
|
1.3
|
58.22
|
| Gonzaga |
17.6
|
12.0
|
3.6
|
3.9
|
7.5
|
10.6
|
53.21
|
| Illinois |
8.0
|
6.6
|
0.1
|
1.3
|
5.8
|
1.9
|
57.56
|
| Kansas |
11.3
|
9.1
|
7.3
|
-0.8
|
6.9
|
6.0
|
58.01
|
| Louisville |
12.3
|
5.8
|
2.5
|
2.7
|
9.3
|
8.5
|
58.80
|
| L S U |
9.4
|
4.2
|
5.6
|
4.2
|
7.6
|
13.3
|
53.66
|
| Marquette |
8.5
|
0.5
|
1.7
|
3.6
|
7.9
|
8.5
|
55.87
|
| Maryland |
3.0
|
0.5
|
-1.6
|
3.2
|
7.7
|
4.3
|
58.11
|
| Memphis |
17.2
|
8.1
|
6.2
|
3.3
|
8.8
|
13.2
|
55.82
|
| Michigan |
4.1
|
-1.1
|
-3.1
|
2.4
|
6.5
|
0.6
|
58.74
|
| Michigan St. |
9.0
|
4.1
|
9.9
|
-0.2
|
6.4
|
9.6
|
59.48
|
| Minnesota |
5.4
|
4.4
|
2.4
|
0.6
|
8.4
|
3.6
|
56.65
|
| Mississippi St. |
6.0
|
4.3
|
-0.7
|
-0.8
|
7.0
|
-2.0
|
55.62
|
| Missouri |
14.6
|
5.7
|
0.4
|
6.5
|
10.6
|
16.9
|
56.31
|
| Morehead St. |
3.1
|
2.3
|
8.0
|
-2.5
|
6.7
|
4.0
|
48.59
|
| Morgan St. |
5.3
|
2.2
|
3.9
|
2.0
|
6.6
|
7.1
|
44.96
|
| North Carolina |
17.4
|
6.5
|
7.3
|
3.2
|
8.5
|
13.8
|
58.00
|
| North Dakota St. |
12.2
|
4.0
|
4.5
|
2.2
|
7.1
|
8.2
|
45.05
|
| Northern Iowa |
4.2
|
3.6
|
3.1
|
-0.9
|
4.2
|
2.2
|
53.53
|
| Ohio St. |
5.1
|
7.5
|
-1.0
|
0.1
|
5.9
|
-0.9
|
57.80
|
| Oklahoma |
11.4
|
9.1
|
5.6
|
-1.1
|
6.9
|
3.8
|
57.78
|
| Oklahoma St. |
6.9
|
1.4
|
-1.1
|
2.8
|
7.7
|
4.1
|
59.57
|
| Pittsburgh |
13.3
|
7.3
|
9.8
|
1.1
|
7.1
|
11.7
|
59.27
|
| Portland St. |
5.5
|
0.3
|
0.9
|
0.7
|
7.5
|
2.2
|
45.45
|
| Purdue |
10.3
|
5.8
|
-0.3
|
3.5
|
7.2
|
5.7
|
57.48
|
| Radford |
5.1
|
7.2
|
6.9
|
-2.8
|
6.8
|
2.3
|
47.63
|
| Robert Morris |
5.7
|
5.1
|
1.7
|
0.7
|
8.6
|
3.1
|
46.18
|
| Siena |
7.6
|
3.7
|
-0.5
|
3.8
|
8.8
|
7.5
|
54.68
|
| USC |
4.9
|
6.8
|
5.5
|
-1.1
|
6.3
|
3.8
|
58.04
|
| Stephen F Austin |
10.3
|
7.2
|
1.4
|
2.8
|
6.1
|
5.5
|
46.99
|
| Syracuse |
8.8
|
7.5
|
2.2
|
-0.6
|
8.0
|
1.0
|
59.39
|
| Temple |
5.6
|
4.2
|
3.1
|
-0.8
|
5.6
|
2.0
|
56.16
|
| Tennessee |
6.1
|
1.5
|
4.6
|
1.8
|
6.7
|
7.5
|
60.50
|
| Texas |
6.8
|
3.6
|
4.7
|
1.3
|
6.2
|
6.6
|
56.58
|
| Texas A&M |
5.4
|
1.5
|
5.3
|
-0.3
|
5.0
|
4.9
|
55.77
|
| U C L A |
12.7
|
4.9
|
3.8
|
3.6
|
8.4
|
11.1
|
55.06
|
| Utah |
7.2
|
7.5
|
4.9
|
-3.2
|
5.0
|
1.1
|
57.90
|
| Utah St. |
10.8
|
7.8
|
7.0
|
-0.7
|
4.9
|
6.2
|
51.00
|
| Villanova |
9.5
|
5.3
|
4.1
|
2.1
|
8.0
|
8.1
|
57.30
|
| Virginia Common. |
8.6
|
6.6
|
-0.6
|
1.9
|
7.6
|
2.9
|
51.94
|
| Wake Forest |
11.1
|
9.3
|
6.0
|
0.2
|
8.5
|
6.4
|
55.29
|
| Washington |
9.3
|
3.8
|
8.4
|
0.1
|
7.6
|
8.6
|
58.08
|
| West Virginia |
10.8
|
1.1
|
5.9
|
3.6
|
6.8
|
11.8
|
58.84
|
| Western Kentucky |
5.4
|
1.5
|
4.8
|
0.1
|
5.7
|
4.9
|
51.41
|
| Wisconsin |
5.4
|
0.1
|
3.0
|
1.4
|
5.0
|
4.7
|
58.28
|
| Xavier |
10.0
|
7.4
|
8.4
|
-2.2
|
5.4
|
5.5
|
55.89
|
Round One Games
(numbers in parentheses are PiRate Criteria scores)
East Region
#1 Pittsburgh (14) vs. #16 East Tennessee (6) [Pitt has a schedule 13 points per game stronger]: This game will be over quickly. Pitt will dominate inside and put this one away in the first 10 minutes. It could be a 20-point margin before halftime.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 78 East Tennessee 56
#8 Oklahoma State (0) vs. #9 Tennessee (6) [Tennessee has a schedule 1 point per game stronger]: These teams are similar, but Tennessee has just a little more talent than the Cowboys. The Volunteers should win the battle of the boards by five or more, and the two or three extra offensive put-backs should decide this game.
Prediction: Tennessee 82 Oklahoma State 77
#5 Florida State (0) vs. #12 Wisconsin (2) [Schedule strengths are equal]: 12-Seeds are the ones that tend to draw the most attention at first round upsets. Part of the reason is because 12-seeds are usually the last bubble teams to make the tournament. Frequently, they are quite a bit better than their seeding. This doesn’t apply in this game. Wisconsin is lucky to be an invitee. The reason the Badgers have a 50-50 chance of winning this one is the fact that Florida State isn’t a dominating ACC team. They rely on one big scorer, and they win games by one to six points. The winner of this game will be going home after the next one, and we’ll go with the Badgers to win a close one.
Prediction: Wisconsin 68 Florida State 66
#4 Xavier (8) vs. #13 Portland State (1) [Xavier has a schedule 10 points per game stronger]: Xavier would have qualified among the big dozen if they had a positive turnover margin. The Musketeers don’t have the tools to advance to the Elite 8 and will only crack the Sweet 16 due to a weak second round opponent. This Portland State team is nowhere near as talented as last year’s team. That team had a chance to compete, while this years Vikings will know they are done by halftime of this game.
Prediction: Xavier 79 Portland State 62
#6 U C L A (14) vs. #11 Virginia Commonwealth (3) [UCLA has a schedule 3 points per game stronger]: VCU is one of those pesky teams that can throw an opponent off its game. Coach Anthony Grant may be on his way to a big time job after this game. UCLA will be able to sneak up on opponents in this tournament. The Bruins didn’t win the Pac-10 title this year, but they have the talent to still be playing in April. After a beginning that could be ugly, look for the boys from Westwood to get their balance and cruise to a double digit win.
Prediction: UCLA 75 VCU 65
#3 Villanova (9) vs. #14 American (2) [Villanova has a schedule 10 points per game stronger]: Villanova just barely missed out on being included in the top 12. The Wildcats are not far behind Louisville, Connecticut, and Pittsburgh in the Big East. VU has no weaknesses, but they are not as strong across the board as Louisville. American won both the Patriot League regular season and tournament titles. This is their second consecutive trip to the tournament, and they enter riding a 13-game winning streak. They are better than average in every important aspect, but the Eagles’ strength of schedule is not strong enough for that to matter. They played three good teams this year and lost to all by an average of 23 points.
Prediction: Villanova 74 American 55
#7 Texas (3) vs. #10 Minnesota (1) [Schedule strengths are equal]: Neither of these teams is going to advance past the opening weekend. Texas is above average but not great in every aspect. There are a dozen NIT teams that could beat the Longhorns. Minnesota isn’t much better. The Gophers pick up more steals, but they don’t capitalize on them with quick scoring bursts. We’ll take Texas in a close game, but the Longhorns will not advance farther than one round.
Prediction: Texas 72 Minnesota 66
#2 Duke (14) vs. #15 Binghamton (-1) [Duke has a schedule 14 points per game stronger]: This won’t be like Duke’s first round game in 2008, when they had to sweat out a last second shot attempt by tiny Belmont. Binghamton has little inside game, and that’s what it will take to beat Duke. The Blue Devils will wear down the Bearcats and pull away to a lopsided victory. They could lead by 35 to 40 points before emptying the bench.
Prediction: Duke 91 Binghamton 63
South Region
#1 North Carolina (17) vs. #16 Radford (3) [North Carolina has a schedule 10 points per game stronger]: Radford can score a lot of points. They don’t have much depth, and we can see them keeping this game close maybe until midway through the first half. After that, we look for the Tar Heels to go on a big run and put the game away before halftime. Don’t be alarmed if UNC doesn’t win by 30 or more points. Remember, they barely beat James Madison in the opening round one year when they advanced to the title game.
Prediction: North Carolina 94 Radford 77
#8 L S U (14) vs. #9 Butler (7) [LSU has a schedule 1 point per game stronger]: As 8-9 games are supposed to go, this game should be close with numerous lead changes. Earlier in the year, Butler won at Xavier, while LSU lost at home to Xavier. The Tigers know they are facing a team that could easily beat them. They just barely missed qualifying for a spot on the 12 best teams. Butler was better last year, but the Bulldogs are no pushover. LSU will be extended to the end, and the Tigers will be fortunate to escape with a victory.
Prediction: LSU 73 Butler 69
#5 Illinois (4) vs. #12 Western Kentucky (2) [Illinois has a schedule 6 points per game stronger]: This Western Kentucky team is about 10 points weaker than last season’s Sweet 16 team. However, the Hilltoppers couldn’t have asked for a better #5 seed to face in the first game. This one has the look of another 12-seed upset, but we will select the Illini to hold off a tough rally.
Prediction: Illinois 61 Western Kentucky 58
#4 Gonzaga (19) vs. #13 Akron (3) [Gonzaga has a schedule 4 points per game stronger]: If Gonzaga were in the Pac-10 and had the identical stats they have this year, we would place them in the Final Four. This is probably a better team than the Adam Morrison team a few years back. The ‘Zags finished the season marching through the opposition like Sherman marched through Georgia. In their final seven games, Gonzaga won all seven by an average score of 84-56! Akron isn’t a bad team. The MAC conference tournament champs might be favored in a first round game in other years, but they are going up against the North Carolina of the mid-majors. Better luck next time Zips.
Prediction: Gonzaga 80 Akron 67
#6 Arizona State (4) vs. #11 Temple (0) [Schedule strengths are equal]: Arizona State lost four of its final seven games, while Temple won 10 of its last 12 including the Atlantic 10 Tournament title. Even though the Sun Devils own a better criteria score, we believe Temple should be a slight favorite in this game. Temple should control the boards in this game, and we expect a game with many missed shots. Offensive rebounding should decide this one.
Prediction: Temple 64 Arizona State 58
#3 Syracuse (4) vs. #14 Stephen F. Austin (8) [Syracuse has a schedule 12 points per game stronger]: Be warned! This game could be a nail-biter. Syracuse will not be fully recovered from the Big East Tournament. They may never fully recover the rest of this season. SFA is not a pushover, as judged by their criteria score. Their strength of schedule does not merit making them an upset favorite. They could keep this one close. However, being their first tourney appearance, the players will be tight at the beginning of the game. Syracuse may not bring their A-game, but it will be enough to win. Don’t expect the Orangemen to score 80 points in this game, but then again, don’t expect the Lumberjacks to get many second-chance scoring opportunities.
Prediction: Syracuse 69 Stephen F. Austin 59
#7 Clemson (9) vs. #10 Michigan (-4) [Michigan has a schedule 3 points per game stronger]: John Beilein’s West Virginia team is the only Elite 8 team to fall through the PiRate cracks in recent years. This Michigan team plays much like that one, but the Wolverines are not yet as good. Michigan tries to limit possessions and win by hitting a lot more three-pointers than they give up. It is a good gimmick when you don’t have superior talent. We just don’t see it working in the Big Dance. Their criteria score is -4, which is the worst of the 63 teams that have a positive R+T rating. Clemson was a better team in 2008, and that Tiger team fell to Villanova in the first round. We expect the Tigers to get over the hump and win their opening round game this year.
Prediction: Clemson 77 Michigan 66
#2 Oklahoma (9) vs. #15 Morgan State (4) [Oklahoma has a schedule 13 points per game stronger]: Oklahoma would have qualified for a spot in the top 12 if they had a positive turnover margin. When they face a team that forced turnovers, the Sooners are going to have a rough time. Missouri and Oklahoma State beat the Sooners in the last two weeks, and both of those teams are ball-hawking squads. Morgan State is not capable of forcing Oklahoma into a bevy of turnovers, so OU is safe in the opening round. Sooner fans should root like crazy for Michigan to beat Clemson, because the Tigers are a lot like Missouri and Oklahoma State.
Prediction: Oklahoma 79 Morgan State 65
Midwest Region
#1 Louisville (10) vs. #16 Morehead State (1) [Louisville has a schedule 10 points per game stronger]: These two teams met in December with UL winning by 38 points. The Eagles are much better than they were three months ago, but not 38 points better. Louisville will get a light workout in this game, and that will keep them fresh for round two.
Prediction: Louisville 76 Morehead State 49
#8 Ohio State (DNQ) vs. #9 Siena (5) [Ohio State has a schedule 3 points per game stronger]: Here is what looks like a mild upset in the making. Ohio State is one of two teams that fail to qualify due to a negative R+T rating. What that means is the Buckeyes give up more scoring opportunities than they get. Think of a major league baseball team that wins 90 games in the regular season to qualify for the playoffs but gives up one more hit per game than themselves while hitting an average amount of home runs. That team won’t go far in the playoffs. Siena won an opening round game in last year’s tournament, and this Saints’ team is better this year than last year. Siena stands a 55-60% chance of winning this game.
Prediction: Siena 74 Ohio State 70
#5 Utah (3) vs. #12 Arizona (-2) [Utah has a schedule 1 point per game stronger]: The winner of this game won’t be advancing much further. Arizona really shouldn’t be here. Almost every major conference team and more than half of the mid-major teams in the NIT could beat Arizona. Utah won 11 of their final 13 games, and the Utes should make it 12 of 14. However, don’t expect any deep runs like in the Rick Majerus or Jack Gardner days.
Prediction: Utah 68 Arizona 63
#4 Wake Forest (12) vs. #13 Cleveland State (7) [Wake Forest has a schedule 3 points per game stronger]: Cleveland State deserves their seeding. The Vikings defeated Butler and won at Syracuse during the season and played competitive games at Washington and at West Virginia. Wake Forest qualifies as one of the super 12 teams, and they will have a tougher time with CSU in the opening round than they will have with either Utah or Arizona in round two.
Prediction: Wake Forest 69 Cleveland State 62
#6 West Virginia (16) vs. #11 Dayton (5) [West Virginia has a schedule 6 points per game stronger]: West Virginia is the top dark horse in our criteria. We believe they can advance to Detroit. Dayton is a solid team and can hold their own on the glass against the Mountaineers. We believe the game will be decided by turnovers. WVU will force three to five more and capitalize on that differential with five to eight points. We will add a little more to the difference by believing Dayton will put West Virginia at the line several times in the closing minutes and fail to score quickly at their end.
Prediction: West Virginia 74 Dayton 65
#3 Kansas (10) vs. #14 North Dakota State (10) [Kansas has a schedule 13 points per game stronger]: North Dakota State is making an appearance in the Big Dance in their first year they are qualified. Their criteria score is a little misleading, as they have a rather weak strength of schedule. The Bison may give the Jayhawks a battle through a couple of TV timeouts, but KU will go to the locker at the half up by at least eight and pull away in the second half.
Prediction: Kansas 81 North Dakota State 59
#7 Boston College (-2) vs. #10 Southern California (2) [Southern Cal has a schedule 3 points per game stronger]: This should be an interesting and entertaining game. The winner should be out of the tournament one round later. Trying to pick a winner in this game is a pure crap shoot. Boston College beat North Carolina and lost to Harvard. USC started 10-3, then lost 9 of 15, and then won five in a row, including three consecutive Pac-10 Tournament victories over NCAA Tournament teams.
Prediction: Southern Cal 73 Boston College 70
#2 Michigan State (7) vs. #15 Robert Morris (2) [Michigan State has a schedule 13 points per game stronger]: The Spartans should make it to the Sweet 16, but we just don’t see any Big 10 team winning an Elite 8 game this year. Robert Morris must rely on one star in Jeremy Chappell. The Colonials don’t rebound well, and MSU will play volleyball on the offensive glass.
Prediction: Michigan State 76 Robert Morris 54
West Regional
#1 Connecticut (12) vs. #16 Chattanooga (-1) [Connecticut has a schedule 8 points per game stronger]: We pity the poor Mocs. They are going to be the victims of one of the two most lopsided opening round game. UConn will dominate this game from start to finish. Chattanooga will be lucky to lead this one 2-0 at the start, because it could easily be a game where the Huskies hold the Mocs scoreless to the first TV timeout and lead by double digits by the time Chattanooga scores.
Prediction: Connecticut 98 Chattanooga 63
#8 B Y U (13) vs. #9 Texas A&M (2) [Texas A&M has a schedule 1 point per game stronger]: This looks like another excellent tossup game, but our criteria show it to be a one-sided affair. BYU would belong in the top 12 if they had played a stronger schedule. The Cougars do everything well; they outscore their opposition by 12.7 points per game. They shoot 8.5% better than their opponents. They control the boards by more than 4 per game and force 2.5 more turnovers per game than they commit. The Cougars just haven’t beaten a big time team. Texas A&M owns victories over four major teams in the Dance. That makes it the tossup game it is supposed to be.
Prediction: BYU 74 Texas A&M 69
#5 Purdue (6) vs. #12 Northern Iowa (-1) [Purdue has a schedule 4 points per game stronger]: The Boilermakers split their final 10 regular season games before finding their stride in the Big 10 Tournament. Northern Iowa is in the Dance because they can edge Illinois State every time they face off. Illinois State won’t be on the schedule until next season, so NIU can begin looking forward to next season after this game. Don’t expect Purdue to still be around next week. This is going to prove to be another weak year for the Big 10.
Prediction: Purdue 71 Northern Iowa 60
#4 Washington (9) vs. #13 Mississippi State (DNQ) [Washington has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]: The Pac-10 regular season champions take on the surprise winner of the SEC Tournament. MSU is one of two teams that do not qualify due to a negative R+T number. It’s hard to imagine that with Jarvis Varnado in the lineup, the Bulldogs still have a slight negative rebounding margin. They also have a negative turnover margin and didn’t play that tough of a schedule. Washington won’t have to travel far from Seattle to Portland, and the Huskies should win this one by more points than most people expect.
Prediction: Washington 81 Mississippi State 66
#6 Marquette (9) vs. #11 Utah State (10) [Marquette has a schedule 5 points per game stronger]: Marquette would definitely be included in the top 12 if Dominic James were not out for the season. Prior to his foot fracture, MU was a Top 10 team capable of making a run to the Final Four. Without him, they really should be a double digit seed. Utah State is one of the handful of mid-majors capable of making a run to the Sweet 16. The Aggies will have trouble against an aggressive, pressing team, but Marquette isn’t one of those teams. This game is actually a tossup. With no partiality to an in-state team, we’re going with Marquette to survive a toughie.
Prediction: Marquette 70 Utah State 65
#3 Missouri (14) vs. #14 Cornell (5) [Missouri has a schedule 11 points per game stronger]: Missouri has the talent to make a deep run in this tournament. Any team that has trouble facing pressure defense is going to find itself in a heap of trouble. The Tigers are the best pressing team in the Big Dance and the only team averaging double figure steals per game. If Mizzou gets 12 steals in a game, they are going to score 20 or more points off those steals. That is a mighty stat for an opponent to overcome. Cornell is not as good this year as they were last year when they won the Ivy League with ease. This team has no signature wins, and they lost by double digits to all three NCAA Tournament teams on their schedule.
Prediction: Missouri 82 Cornell 58
#7 California (1) vs. #10 Maryland (1) [Maryland has a schedule 2 points per game stronger]: On paper, this game looks like an exciting game. We consider it the most mediocre game of the opening round. One of these teams will advance to the Round of 32 and become fodder for Memphis. Cal will win the battle on the boards, but Maryland will not beat themselves with unforced errors. The Terps beat North Carolina and Wake Forest in the last month, while Cal has been a sub-.500 team since mid-January.
Prediction: Maryland 71 California 67
#2 Memphis (19) vs. #15 Cal State Northridge (-1) [Memphis has a schedule 7 points per game stronger]: Not only is Memphis coming into the tournament playing its best ball of the season, the Tigers enter the Dance with a chip on their shoulders. They deserved a number one seed, and now they will take it out on their next opponent or maybe next six. The Matadors lost to Cal State Bakersfield as well as some other teams with an RPI well down the list. Memphis has won 25 games in a row, and the Tigers are the real number one team in our book. At the point when Coach Cal removes his top eight players from the game, the Tigers may have yielded less than a point per minute in this game.
Prediction: Memphis 83 Cal State Northridge 47
Coming Friday, a look at Saturday’s games. Sunday’s game previews will run Saturday.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 