2022 Conference USA Preview

Conference USA has been the weakest FBS league the last few years, and it looks to be on the verge of getting even weaker.  When the league sponsored its first football season, the football members were Cincinnati, Houston, Louisville, Memphis, South Florida, Southern Miss., Tulane, and UAB.  Over the course of its early years, Central Florida, East Carolina, SMU, TCU, and Tulsa were members.

Of the original teams, only UAB remains, but the Blazers are leaving the league to join the American Athletic Conference in 2023.  Going with UAB will be Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice and UTSA.  Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky almost made the move to the Mid-American Conference.  The league stayed alive by getting Liberty and New Mexico State to come in from the ranks of the independents while inviting current FCS members Jacksonville State and Sam Houston to enter next year.

CUSA lost Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Miss. to the Sun Belt, and thus the league will have just one division of 11 teams this year.  The top two in the conference standings will meet in the Conference Championship Game.

The CUSA Media poll did not record total vote numbers, just first place votes and predicted order of finish.  Here is how the media picked the race in 2022.

Conference USA
		Votes
#	Team	1st Place	Overall
1	UTSA	14
2	UAB	8
3	Western Ky.	0
4	Fla. Atlantic	0
5	North Texas	0
6	UTEP	0
7	Charlotte	0
8	Middle Tenn.	0
9	Louisiana Tech	0
10	Rice	0
11	Fla. Int’l.	0

The opening PiRate Ratings differ minimally.

Conference USA
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	97.3	97.5	99.1	98.0
W. Kentucky	96.4	96.0	99.0	97.1
U T S A	97.1	95.3	96.6	96.4
North Texas	88.6	87.8	89.9	88.8
U T E P	86.9	86.4	87.1	86.8
Middle Tennessee	85.6	86.7	86.8	86.4
Florida Atlantic	85.3	87.2	85.6	86.0
Charlotte	82.9	83.9	82.3	83.0
Rice	81.2	80.6	80.1	80.6
Louisiana Tech	80.2	81.9	78.7	80.3
Florida Int’l.	67.0	70.1	65.3	67.5
CUSA	86.2	86.7	86.4	86.4

If you are new to the PiRate Ratings, there are three different power ratings and an average of the three.  All three ratings, PiRate, Mean, and Bias, are calculated using the same statistical data but with different algorithmic formulas.  The PiRate and Bias are closely related, while the Mean is somewhat different.  Each of the three different ratings accentuate certain statistical events that have proven at times to be more essential than the other two.  Thus, in some years, the PiRate has more success.  In some years, the Bias has more success, and in some years the Mean has more success.
The PiRate Ratings are meant to predict the next week’s games on the schedule, so using them to predict the entire season’s results is unwarranted.  Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records prior to the postseason.

Team	CUSA	Overall
Western Kentucky *	7-1	11-2
UAB	7-1	9-4
UTSA	7-1	8-4
UTEP	6-2	8-4
North Texas	4-4	5-7
Middle Tenn.	4-4	5-7
Florida Atlantic	3-5	4-8
Charlotte	3-5	4-8
Louisiana Tech	2-6	3-9
Rice	1-7	2-10
Florida Int’l.	0-8	1-11

* Western Kentucky picked to defeat UAB in the CUSA Championship Game

Note: UAB head coach Bill Clark retired due to health issues this Summer, and offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent has been named interim head coach.

Coming tomorrow: The Mid-American Conference

Conference USA Preview

If you are new to the PiRate Ratings, we have three different ratings, which are basically three different algorithms calculated using identical data.  The PiRate and Bias are closely correlated.  The Mean is a bit of an outlier.  The differences in the three ratings’ algorithms are designed to catch different outcomes in a season.  In some years, trends make one rating better than the others.  In some years, all three ratings move in lockstep and appear to be nearly identical.  Additionally, the process for updating the three different ratings differs for each one.  The PiRate has the most conservative updating formula, while the Bias has the most liberal updating formula.  The Mean has an average updating formula.

Wow!  It feels like last week, Alabama was toying with Ohio State to win the 2020-21 FBS National Championship!  If it feels like August 13th came about two months quicker than normal, maybe it has more to do with the fact that updating the PiRate Ratings was a much more involved process this Spring and Summer.  The issues with Covid totally messed up the 2020 season, and the new Transfer Portal led to players leaving school as late as July and waiting until the end of July to choose their new school, so updating the ratings became a two-fold process.  The old way of updating the ratings took place between Memorial Day Weekend and Mid-July.  Then, from Mid-July to last week, we had to perform a new update where, in essence, we had to treat about 165 of the top transfers as lost starters to their old team and as new starters to their new team.  

These 165 players represented 4293 basis points, or to put it into something meaningful to you, 4293 basis points in our ratings’ algorithms account for about 61.3 power rating points, give or take a point or two.  82 different FBS teams had a gain or loss of basis points from at least one player move involving these teams.  48 teams did not have a gain or loss of basis points, with 47 having no meaningful player movement, while the 48th team had a net of 0 basis points from their gain of a player and loss of a player where the players were basically of equal talent.

If you follow our ratings, you probably know that our 130 teams always average 100.0, as 100.0 is par.  When you see a team ranked at 111.3, that means they are 11.3 points better than the average team.  If a team is ranked at 92.8, that means they are 7.2 points weaker than the average team.  Thus, if there are 130 teams, and 100 is par, the grand total of team ratings must be 13,000.  So, if 82 teams had their ratings altered by a total of 61.3 points, the other 48 teams had to have their ratings altered as well so that the total was 13,000.  Those 61.3 points were not all in the same direction.  32.6 points came from improvement, while 28.7 points came from weakening.  The grand total of -3.9 points had to be distributed to the other 48 teams.  Basically 39 teams lost one tenth of a point, while the best nine teams of the 48 stayed stat.

Today, we begin previewing our first FBS conference.  Coming in at 11th place (last place) among the conferences is Conference USA.  Once considered an improved version of the Sun Belt Conference, CUSA has fallen several notches behind their Southern Group of 5 rival.  

In July, CUSA held its annual preseason meeting, and the media voted their preseason picks.  Here it is:

2021 CUSA Football Preseason Poll

EAST DIVISION

1. Marshall (17)
2. Florida Atlantic (6)
3. WKU (1)
4. Charlotte
5. Middle Tennessee
6. FIU
7. Old Dominion

WEST DIVISION

1. UAB (15)
2. UTSA (9)
3. Louisiana Tech
4. Southern Miss
5. Rice
6. North Texas
7. UTEP

How does this compare to the PiRate Ratings?  Take a look at our preseason ratings.

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Marshall	93.4	93.4	93.6	93.4
Florida Atlantic	86.7	88.6	87.8	87.7
Middle Tennessee	83.4	83.1	84.7	83.7
Western Kentucky	81.7	83.6	82.8	82.7
Charlotte	78.8	79.6	80.2	79.5
Florida Int’l.	77.9	78.9	80.1	79.0
Old Dominion	71.2	71.9	71.2	71.4
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U A B	95.4	95.2	94.9	95.2
U T S A	94.0	94.5	93.4	93.9
Rice	87.0	87.1	87.3	87.1
Louisiana Tech	86.9	87.4	85.2	86.5
Southern Miss.	83.3	85.2	84.5	84.4
North Texas	82.1	81.7	81.4	81.7
U T E P	76.3	77.2	74.4	76.0
CUSA Averages	84.1	84.8	84.4	84.4

While the PiRate Ratings are designed only to estimate the result of each team’s next game, we issue predicted standings every year just for fun.  Just because a team is ranked ahead of another, it doesn’t mean we are predicting them to win.  Our ratings have built in alterations to every team’s power rating based on depth and experience.  A team lacking depth may see their power rating fall as the season goes along, and we perceive that these poor depth teams will begin to show fatigue.  Likewise, a team with a lot of talent but low experience may see their power rating rise as the season goes along, and we perceive that these lesser experienced players gain enough experience for the game to slow down to them.

Here are our predicted won-loss records for CUSA.

CUSA East	Conf.	Overall
Marshall	6-2	8-5
Florida Atlantic	6-2	8-4
Florida Int’l.	4-4	5-7
Western Kentucky	4-4	5-7
Middle Tennessee	3-5	5-7
Old Dominion	0-8	1-11
CUSA West	Conf.	Overall
UTSA	7-1	10-3 *
UAB	7-1	8-4
Rice	6-2	7-5
Louisiana Tech	6-2	7-5
Southern Miss.	3-5	4-8
UTEP	1-7	3-9
UTSA picked to win CUSA Championship Game

2017 Conference USA Preview

It’s day two of our annual college football conference previews.  Conference USA featured a lot of wide open, pass-it-all-over-the-field football last year, and in some weeks, perusing the league’s results left you wondering if this was football or basketball.  As an example, take the two division winners from 2016.  Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech met in the regular season, and then they had a rematch in the CUSA Championship Game.  The first time around Tech beat Western 56-52.  In the rematch, Western won the league title with a 58-44 victory.

Western Kentucky lost their offensive mastermind, when former coach Jeff Brohm took the Purdue job.  Will new Hilltopper head man Mike Sanford be able to keep the Toppers scoring 40 points per game?  The former Notre Dame offensive coordinator may be a tad more conservative in his play-calling, so we expect WKU will score less often this year.

However, the arrival of two new big-name coaches could add some points and excitement on the scoreboard in the Sunshine State.  Butch Davis is the new leader at Florida International, and Lane Kiffin takes over at Florida Atlantic.  A former CUSA coach returns to the league after a two-year hiatus without ever changing schools.  Welcome back UAB to college football.  Coach Bill Clark stayed loyal to the Blazers, and when UAB returns to the field on September 2 against Alabama A&M, the Blazers will have the same coach that guided the team to a very respectable 6-6 record in 2014.

Here is how the CUSA  media voted in the preseason poll.

CUSA-East
#	Team	1st Pl.
1	Western Kentucky	20
2	Middle Tennessee	4
3	Old Dominion	3
4	Marshall	1
5	Florida Atlantic	0
6	Florida Int’l	0
7	Charlotte	0
CUSA-West
#	Team	1st Pl.
1	Louisiana Tech	20
2	UTSA	7
3	Southern Miss.	1
4	North Texas	0
5	Rice	0
6	UTEP	0
7	UAB	0
Total Votes Not Released

The preseason PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings believe the CUSA race will be exciting and closer than last year.

Conference USA
East Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
W. Kentucky	99.8	97.3	101.6	99.6
Old Dominion	90.9	93.9	91.4	92.1
Middle Tennessee	90.5	91.6	91.4	91.2
Florida Int’l.	84.0	83.9	85.2	84.4
Florida Atlantic	82.5	86.1	83.6	84.1
Marshall	81.9	83.8	82.7	82.8
Charlotte	74.4	77.6	74.9	75.6
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
U T S A	91.3	93.1	93.5	92.6
Louisiana Tech	90.2	92.0	91.1	91.1
Southern Miss.	84.3	86.1	84.2	84.8
N. Texas	80.5	82.1	80.4	81.0
Rice	80.1	81.0	80.8	80.6
U T E P	74.8	79.3	76.1	76.8
UAB	63.7	69.2	65.9	66.3
CUSA Averages	89.9	92.1	91.0	91.0

Here are our not-so-scientific predictions for the league races, and the bowl projections.

Conference USA Projected Standings
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
East Division
Old Dominion	7-1	10-3	Bahamas
W. Kentucky	6-2	9-3	St. Petersburg
Middle Tennessee	6-2	7-5	New Orleans
Florida Atlantic	5-3	6-6	[Armed Forces]
Florida Int’l.	3-5	4-8
Marshall	2-6	3-9
Charlotte	1-7	2-10
Team	Conference	Overall	Bowl
West Division
Louisiana Tech	7-1	9-4	Boca Raton
U T S A	7-1	9-3	Heart of Dallas
Southern Miss.	6-2	8-4	New Mexico
N. Texas	2-6	3-9
U T E P	2-6	2-10
UAB	1-7	2-10
Rice	1-7	1-11
Old Dominion to win CUSA Championship Game
Fla. Atlantic’s bid to the Armed Forces is an at-large bid

Coming tomorrow: The Mountain West Conference–Will Boise St. return to the top, or will the Broncos look up at last year’s surprise winner Wyoming or Colorado St.?  Can San Diego St. continue to dominate in the West Division, or will an up and comer like Hawaii knock the Aztecs off their throne?

 

 

 

 

2017 College Football Season Previews Premiere Tuesday, August 15

Ahoy, Mateys!  Come aboard the PiRate Ship for the 2017-18 College Football Season.  The PiRates have set sail for the season, and we hope we sail on smooth waters all year.

Beginning, Tuesday, August 15, 2017, in the afternoon in the Eastern Daylight Time Zone (after 18 Hours GMT), we will commence with the first of our conference previews for the season, previewing one new conference per day.  As usual, we will begin with the lowest rated conference and continue until we conclude the previews with the top-rated conference.  You may or may not be surprised this year, but there are some changes in the lower end and the upper end of the conference ratings.  For the first time since its inception, the Sun Belt Conference does not tally the lowest overall score.  This year, that dubious distinction befalls Conference USA, and it is CUSA that will be our first preview. EDIT: Our Apologies to CUSA.  It is the Mid-American Conference that came up with the lowest league average, so look for the MAC Preview on Tuesday.

Here is a proposed schedule for our website for the 2017-18 sports season 

Tuesdays: Updated Retrodictive and Predictive Ratings & Spreads for the upcoming College Week

Wednesdays: Updated NFL Ratings and Spreads for the upcoming NFL Week.

Thursdays: Our infamous Money Line Parlay Selections (JUST FOR FUN).

Fridays: Tentatively, we are hoping to bring back our historic Pro Football Simulations this season.  We are looking at simulating an NFL Season using the best teams for 14 franchises between 1950 and 1975.  The 14 NFL teams in existence in 1965 will be used, and we will use the rules from that season, culminating with the NFL Championship Game (and maybe the Playoff Bowl).

Check back Tuesday afternoon (EDT) for the first preview of the PiRate Season.

As usual, our ratings will be part of the Prediction Tracker and the Massey Football Ranking Composite

http://thepredictiontracker.com/

http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm