PiRate Picks for October 1-4, 2020

The Odds Must Be Crazy? Uh, No, We’re The Crazies!

Welcome back to the most popular part of the PiRate Ratings during football season–our wacky, untrustworthy, frequently off base picks against the spread, using our invented, imaginary bank account.

After having a big winner two weeks ago, we slightly stubbed our toes last week, and after four weeks of football, we now show an imaginary fake sliver of profit.

With October, the Autumn winds begin to ramp up, and why not just throw no caution to those winds? If we pick 15 winners out of 15 selections, or lose all 15 selections, our real bank accounts stay the same. Do you get the picture? We provide this weekly feature for your entertainment purposes only. However, no matter how frequently we warn you not to play our selections for real and to rely on more reliable information, some of you tend to overlook the weekly warning.

We are nutty buckaroos and lasses on this PiRate ship! We’ve been taking on water for decades. Please, very kind people: Don’t be like the following long-time subscriber to this site, who sent us this message this week:

His name is Fred, and he lives in Minnesnowta. Here is what Fred sent:

Hello PiRates. Two weeks ago, I didn’t listen to your warning and played 5 of your selections because they looked like good choices. They went 5-0, and I made $50 betting $10 on each game. Last week, I figured you were onto something. I played just 3 of your picks, but I upped the wagers to $50 each. I lost all 3 selections and was out $165. Shame on me for not reading your warning, but I promise not to do so again, at least until next Thursday when your next selections come out.

Fred, Buddy! You’ve been following these ratings since 2011. In 9 years, you must have seen our warning more than 100 times. If you want to toss out $165 from your wallet, why not buy your loved ones some nice stocking caps for the Minnesnowta winter that is about ready to strike you “up der.” Our selection formula is as wacky as Axel and his Dog!

Here’s one of our favorite Axel statements: “What’s the best thing to puuuuuuut on a hot dog?

Answer: The best thing to puuuuuuut on a hot dog is your teeth!

To the few readers that have made it this far, here are our selections for the week. Fred, don’t look!

Date:	10/1-10/4
College Straight Wagers
Selection	Opponent	Line
1. S. Carolina	Florida	+18
2. Kansas St.	TTU	-2.5
3. Air Force	Navy	+7
4. Tulsa	UCF	+21.5
5. Virginia	Clemson	+28
6. College 6-point Teaser Parlay @ -110
Selection	Opponent	Line
Baylor	West Va.	+3.5
Charlotte	Fla. Atlantic	+12.5
7. College 10-point Teaser Parlay @ -110
Selection	Opponent	Line
East Carolina	Georgia St.	+11
Boston Collge	North Carolina	+24
Southern Miss	N. Texas	+11.5
NFL Straight Wager
Selection	Opponent	Line
8. Denver	N.Y. Jets	+2
9. NFL 6-point Teaser Parlay @ -110
Selection	Opponent	Line
New Orleans	Detroit	+10
Tampa Bay	LA Chargers	-1
10. NFL 6-point Teaser Parlay @ -110
Selection	Opponent	Line
San Francisco	N. Y.Giants	-1
Chicago	Indianapolis	+8.5
11. NFL Money Line Parlay @ +131.53
Must Win	Opponent	Odds
Tampa Bay	LA Chargers
San Francisco	N.Y. Gianta	+131.53
Green Bay	Atlanta
12. NFL Money Line Parlay @ +517.10
Must Win	Opponent	Odds
Carolina	Arizona
Las Vegas	Buffalo	+517.10

That upset special above returns better than 5-1 odds, and we would never issue this if it were serious. We can afford to take liberal gambles on these picks, because there is no risk when you wager $0 real and only wager in $100 imaginary amounts.

PiRate Ratings Special Money Line Plays

We had an upset pick at +200 a couple nights ago, but since we isolated on this one, a bunch of Sharps obviously saw the same value we did.  So, our upset pick is only going off at +195 for now.  We have three Money Line plays to show you this week, two of which are parlays.

Money Line Play #1

Temple +195 vs. Memphis

It’s true that Temple doesn’t enjoy the best home field advantage, but Memphis has a considerable road team disadvantage.  The Tigers have not been tested on the road, and their stats on both sides of the ball are not Boise State worthy at the moment.

Temple dropped a game at Buffalo, but the Owls would beat the Bulls seven times out of 10.  TU’s defense should be just strong enough to hold the Tigers under 28 points, while the Owl offense has a good chance at 30+.  Thus we have strong feelings that Temple will win this game outright.  If you can find this game anywhere at +200, then play it as a gamble.  Our ratings show this a toss-up game, so +200 is quite a bargain if you can find it.

 

Money Line Play #2

Two-game Parlay at +138

 

Eastern Michigan over Ball St.

Central Michigan over New Mexico St.

 

 

Money Line Play #3

Three-game Parlay at +155

Wake Forest over Louisville

Ohio U over Northern Illinois

Baylor over Texas Tech

 

Remember–We do not charge for our selections, and you should consider this information worth what you pay for it.  Please do not lose your mortgage payment because of something you read on this site.  We NEVER wager real money on sporting events.

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for September 6-10, 2018

With the NFL kicking off Thursday night, this is the first weekend where the handicappers have both college and pro regular season football to consider when making their selections.

It has been a custom at the PiRate Ratings that we make the maximum number of picks on this week of the season.  We will be going with 11 selections this week, using a combination of straight wagers, money line parlays, and 10-point teasers.

As usual, please be advised that every selection made on this website is absolutely free to you, and you should consider the value of the information to struggle to meet the monetary cost you pay to receive it.  In other words, unless you are a sharp in the Caribbean that knows how to use our picks and make a fortune, please do not wager your hard-earned money on games using this site as your sole reference.  The PiRates do this strictly for mathematical fun.

Here are this week’s PiRate Picks.

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Michigan St.	Arizona St.	5 1/2	Mich. St.
BYU	California	3 1/2	California
Indiana	Virginia	7	Virginia
Georgia Tech	South Florida	3	Ga. Tech
Stanford	USC	4	Stanford

Money Line Parlay	@+238
Winner	Loser
North Carolina	East Carolina
Maryland	Bowling Green
Florida	Kentucky
Stanford	USC
Michigan St.	Arizona St.

Money Line Parlay	@ +182
Winner	Loser
Purdue	Eastern Michigan
Georgia	South Carolina
Appalachian St.	Charlotte
UAB	Coastal Carolina
Penn St.	Pittsburgh

Money Line Parlay	@+237
Winner	Loser
Pittsburgh	Cleveland
Baltimore	Buffalo
New Orleans	Tampa Bay
New England	Houston

Money Line Game	@+140
Winner	Loser
Cincinnati	Indianapolis

10-point teaser	3-team parlay -110
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Coastal Carolina	UAB	1	UAB
Indiana	Virginia	17	Virginia
Purdue	Eastern Mich.	5 1/2	Purdue

10-point teaser	3-team parlay -110
Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick
Georgia	South Carolina	Pk	Georgia
USC	Stanford	6	Stanford
Clemson	Texas A&M	2	Clemson

The PiRates are adding some buckaroos to the ship this season for their expertise in picking football games. In addition to our own picks, each of the buckaroos and buckarettes will supply his or her own picks to us each week. If they prove their worth, we’ll run their picks up the flagpole every week, but if they lose too much, they’ll walk the plank.

To start off, each has been granted an unlimited bank account to wager an odd number of games of 3, 5, 7, or 9 selections each week isolated to just college football. All pretend wagers will be $100 a game, so it will be easy to calculate. If they win, they earn another $100 to their imaginary account. If they lose, then $110 will be deducted.

Our guest players have all chosen their user names for this event, so here is a brief introduction on each player–in alphabetical order.

1. Buckeye Michelle lives in Florida, after growing up in the Cleveland area. Don’t let her gender fool you; she knows football. She can recognize coverage zones by the defense, but most of all, she sees what most of us don’t see–value. If you ever need a personal shopper, Michie is the one for you. She’ll find you a lot of bargains.

2. Cal Gal Tiffy lives on the West Coast, and yes, she is another member of the fairer sex. A tomboy who played tackle football with the boys growing up, she matured into a model and now is a makeup artist that never misses a Stanford home game.

3. Dean 615 is a former college football star and played in the NFL for a decade. Dean knows how to evaluate talent and can watch a game and see all 22 players and know who missed his assignment. Dean has a room full of trophies in his home.

4. Friday Dog 13 is a rabid football fan and friend of the Captains for 40+ years. Friday Dog has seen more than 100 football games in person, many at Vanderbilt’s Dudley Field and many at Peden Stadium in Athens, Ohio. Friday Dog is an expert in hometown football.

5. Stewed Meat is a professional sharp. Stewed has cashed some rather expensive tickets in Las Vegas and has been banned in some places or been forced to play no more than a certain amount on college games. Stewed is the Captain’s source for receiving the “Outlaw” line as well as how quickly the lines flattened and which games saw sharps playing both sides for the middle. Stewed has placed a grand on one parlay and won $10K when the parlay came in. Stewed has also watched a botched extra point kill a $25K wager. Stewed plays money line parlays almost exclusively and has admitted that playing individual games against the spread is not Stewed’s expertise.
Note–The odds chosen were the best available at Oddshark.com at the time of the submission to the Captain.

Here are the picks this week for each player.
1. Buckeye Michelle
Rice +17 1/2 vs. Hawaii
Louisiana-Monroe + 6 1/2 vs. Southern Miss.
Colorado St. +13 1/2 vs. Arkansas
Kentucky +14 1/2 vs. Florida
Tulsa +23 vs. Texas

2. Cal Gal Tiffy
Stanford -4 vs. USC
California +3 1/2 vs. BYU
Iowa -3 1/3 vs. Iowa St.
Notre Dame -34 vs. Ball St.
Army -8 1/2 vs. Liberty
Central Michigan -4 vs. Kansas
Georgia -10 vs. South Carolina

3. Dean 73
Notre Dame -34 vs. Ball St.
Appalachian St. -13 1/2 vs. Charlotte
UAB -9 vs. Coastal Carolina

4. Friday Dog 13
Vanderbilt -8 1/2 vs. Nevada
Ohio St. -34 1/2 vs. Rutgers
Mississippi St. -9 1/2 vs. Kansas St.

5. Stewed Meat
Western Michigan +28 vs. Michigan
Stanford -4 vs. USC
Rutgers +35 1/2 vs. Ohio St.
Iowa -3 1/2 vs. Iowa St.
Wyoming +18 vs. Missouri

 

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 27-31, 2016

The Hook
We talked about this in a previous posting, but we now have real data to show you why you should not wager real money on our picks. Last week, we hit a small bonanza, and we came within a few seconds of a major, albeit imaginary, windfall profit.

We issued four long shot money line parlays, each returning better than 2 to 1 odds. We won on two of the four and came within seconds of winning the third one. As it is, our profit from last week was 61% return on the investment. Had that third game that we lost in the last seconds been a winner as well, our profit would have exceeded 100% on the investment.

It’s the “last-second”, “one play,” “fluke play” stuff that hooks the investor to make him or her return the next week to wager more. We have no problem with this. We can wager “$500,000,” and it is the same as if we wagered “$1.” It’s just a fun exercise for a half dozen math geeks, four of whom are members of the fairer sex by the way.

What we have noticed so far this season is that our college picks are winning, while the NFL picks are not doing well at all. The 2016 NFL season has been too tipsy-turvy to hit on parlays. Sure, you can pick New England to win at -300, but that won’t help you much, because at -300, the Patriots basically have to win out to keep you from losing money. If they go 12-4, and you bet on them to win every week at a -300 average, you will invest $300 every week and win $100 12 times, while losing $300 four times. This would allow you to break even in theory, but New England doesn’t go off at -300 each week. They might lose at -450. They might win at -600 over a lousy team. Your invested amount won’t get you the profit to buy that new pearl necklace for that special lady in your life, or that new cell phone with the 16 megapixel camera to replace that camera that is best used to start a campfire.

Until otherwise determined to be safe, we are going to limit our money line parlays to college games only. The upset tendencies this time of year tend to be more conservative than the NFL.

For the season, our “just for fun only” picks have wagered on 31 money line parlay games, all at better than even money odds. We have won 10 of the 31 at an average of $283.25 (on $100 wagered) and lost the other 21 ($-100). This brings us a return of $-130 for the season, which is still a negative 4% return on investment. For what it’s worth, the college selections are responsible for 80% of the winnings, and those picks alone have a positive return on investment, which is why we are going only with college picks this week.

We are going to issue just three selections this week. All three are very long shots such that winning just any one of these three games will make our week an imaginary profitable one. One of the parlays combines two underdogs that we believe can win outright and return an incredible 6+ times what we are pretending to invest.

Look carefully at all three parlays. There is a reason they call them “long shots.” Chances are high that all three will lose, so be forewarned all you reading this with a URL from Las Vegas as well as all you that have figured out which two online books you can find to plug the numbers into a calculator and discover which book we used for each parlay. Remember this: just since we started this feature 15 minutes ago, three of the games that make up the parlays have changed the money line odds.

This Week’s Games

October 27-31,2016

1. College Parlay @ +295

Temple over Cincinnati

Indiana over Maryland

Memphis over Tulsa

Central Michigan over Kent St.

N. C. St. over Boston College

2. College Parlay @ +324

Toledo over Ohio

Wake Forest over Army

Southern Miss. over Marshall

Florida over Georgia

Tennessee over South Carolina

Penn St. over Purdue

Washington St. over Oregon St.

3. College Parlay @ +607

North Texas over UTSA

Kentucky over Missouri

 

 

PiRate Ratings Sweet 16 Preview for Friday, March 28, 2014

Here are the matchups for Friday’s Sweet 16 games with our criteria comparisons. Remember, the criteria spread is not the predicted spread for each game. We have commenced with adding a predicted score from the interpretation of the criteria spread.

The four games on Friday constitute the best four Sweet 16 games in one night in several years. We believe all four games are close to tossups, which means the TV viewer should have one fantastic night of entertainment.

Sweet 16 Friday Schedule

7:15 PM EDT on CBS
Midwest Region—Michigan vs. Tennessee
Take your pick. Michigan has slight edges in field goal margin and turnover margin, but Tennessee has a decided edge on the glass. The strength of schedule makes the Wolverines an ever so slight favorite

PiRate Criteria: Michigan by less than 1    Predicted Score: Michigan 72  Tennessee 70

7:27 PM EDT on TBS
East Region—Connecticut vs. Iowa St.
The teams are dead even in shooting margin. Neither can rebound the ball all that well, so this is a push as well. Turnover margin is no different, and the R+T ratings are exceptionally low for Sweet 16 teams. Rarely does a team with a low R+T make the Elite 8, but one must this year, and it will be the winner of this game.

PiRate Criteria: Iowa St. by less than 1   Predicted Score: Iowa St. 67  Connecticut 66

Approx. 9:45 PM EDT on CBS
Midwest Region—Louisville vs. Kentucky
Louisville has the best field goal margin ratings of any team remaining in the tournament, while Kentucky ranks near the bottom of Sweet 16 teams. The Wildcats are without a doubt the best rebounding team left in the tournament, but Louisville has the best turnover margin in the remaining field. Kentucky has considerably better R+T and schedule strength, which brings us back to square one—almost.

PiRate Criteria: Louisville by 1 Predicted Score: Louisville 74  Kentucky 71

Approx. 9:57 PM EDT on TBS
East Region—Virginia vs. Michigan St.
When you think of a Tom Izzo team, rebounding prowess immediately comes to mind. However, in this game, Virginia actually holds a slight edge. Michigan St., never the finesse team, actually has better shooting margin ratings than the Cavaliers. This game will be decided in the turnover margin, and UVA has the slight edge there.

PiRate Criteria: Virginia by 1 Predicted Score: Virginia 58  Michigan St. 56

PiRate Ratings–Sweet 16 Preview for Thursday, March 27, 2014

Here are the matchups for Thursday’s Sweet 16 games with our criteria comparisons. Remember, the criteria spread is not the predicted spread for each game. We have commenced with adding a predicted score from the interpretation of the criteria spread.
Sweet 16 Thursday Schedule

7:15 PM EDT on CBS
South Region—Stanford vs. Dayton

Stanford will have a decided advantage on the boards, while almost all other criteria are about equal. Look for a close game, but the Cardinal will take advantage of a few extra opportunities in second chance points to pull it out in the end.

PiRate Criteria: Stanford by 1 Predicted Score: Stanford 72 Dayton 68

7:47 PM EDT on TBS
West Region—Wisconsin vs. Baylor

Baylor has the rebounding advantage, but Wisconsin has the turnover margin advantage. Shooting is about equal, but Wisconsin’s range of shooting is a little better. Baylor has the R+T advantage, so this game is a real tossup. The criteria score shows it to be a possible overtime game.

PiRate Criteria: Wisconsin by less than 1 Predicted Score: Wisconsin 64 Baylor 63

Approx. 9:30 PM EDT on CBS
South Region—Florida vs. U C L A

Florida has slightly superior numbers in shooting, defense, and rebounding, while UCLA has a little turnover margin advantage. The Gators have the R+T advantage as well, and this game looks to be the biggest mismatch of the night, even though it may not show that in the final score.

PiRate Criteria: Florida by 4 Predicted Score: Florida 69 UCLA 58

Approx. 10:17 PM EDT on TBS
West Region—Arizona vs. San Diego St.

This is an excellent contrast game. Arizona is a lot more physical, but San Diego St. is quite a bit quicker. If the game becomes a volleyball match inside, the Wildcats will be too strong for the Aztecs; but, if the game becomes a quicker-pace, running game, SDSU has the talent to actually run Arizona off the floor. The criteria tilt in favor of the number one seed advancing, and we will go with Arizona as the individual game pick tonight, but remember that we actually selected San Diego St. to be the surprise Final Four team in our original bracket selection.

PiRate Criteria: Arizona by 2 Predicted Score: Arizona 75 San Diego St. 70

PiRate Ratings–College Basketball Report for Sunday, March 23, 2014

Record in Round 3 Saturday: 6-2  Total for Tournament: 33-7

 

The PiRate Criteria correctly picked 6 of 8 games on Saturday, bringing the total for the tournament to 33-7 for 82.5% accuracy.

 

Here are the matchups for Sunday’s Round 3 games with our criteria comparisons.  Remember, the criteria spread is not the predicted spread for each game.  We have commenced with adding a predicted score from the interpretation of the criteria spread.

 

 

Round 3 Schedule

Time	Region	Seed	Team	Seed	Team	Network
12:15 PM	South	2	Kansas	10	Stanford	CBS
2:45 PM	Midwest	1	Wichita St.	8	Kentucky	CBS
5:15 PM	East	3	Iowa St.	6	North Carolina	CBS
6:10 PM	Midwest	11	Tennessee	14	Mercer	TNT
7:10 PM	South	4	U C L A	12	Stephen F. Austin	TBS
7:40 PM	West	3	Creighton	6	Baylor	truTV
8:40 PM	East	1	Virginia	8	Memphis	TNT
9:40 PM	West	1	Arizona	8	Gonzaga	TBS

 

 

Kansas vs. Stanford

Even without Joel Embiid, Kansas still holds an advantage on the glass and a large R+T advantage that will give the Jayhawks extra scoring chances.  KU moves to the Sweet 16.

 

PiRate Criteria: Kansas by 5                       Prediction: Kansas 74  Stanford 63

 

Wichita St. vs. Kentucky

It looks like this is the game where Wichita St. has met its match.  Kentucky holds a big advantage on the boards, and a decent advantage in schedule strength.  Wichita State has the shooting and defense advantage, while the turnover edge is minimal to the Shockers.  The key is Kentucky’s superior strength of schedule, enough to give the edge to the Wildcats.

 

PiRate Criteria: Kentucky by 2                   Prediction: Kentucky 62  Wichita St. 58

 

Iowa St. vs. North Carolina

Iowa St. must have an above-average shooting day to have a chance to move on.  North Carolina’s rebounding and R+T advantage is prohibitive, and the Tar Heels are not a bad shooting team.

 

PiRate Criteria: N. Carolina by 1                Predication: North Carolina 77  Iowa St. 74

 

Tennessee vs. Mercer

Two hot teams should make for a great contest.  Mercer is the better shooting team, but not by a lot.  Tennessee has a tiny defensive advantage.  All other statistical data is about equal, except that Tennessee has a much tougher strength of schedule, which is enough to tilt the game in their favor.

 

PiRate Criteria: Tennessee by 3                  Prediction: Tennessee 64  Mercer 57

 

UCLA vs. Stephen F. Austin

This is probably the most interesting game of Sunday.  SFA is no pushover, and the Lumberjacks proved it by defeating VCU.  UCLA has enough talent to make it to the Final Four, but whether the Bruins can remain consistent enough to do so is a question.  Most of the criteria data swing in SFA’s favor, but UCLA has a much better strength of schedule.  All told, the game should be very close, at least for 35 minutes.

 

PiRate Criteria: UCLA by 3                        Prediction: UCLA 66  Stephen F. Austin 59

 

Creighton vs. Baylor

Creighton is the best shooting team remaining in the tournament, but the Blue Jays R+T rating is typical of a team that does not make it to the Sweet 16.  Baylor has a considerable rebounding edge, but the Bears have liabilities in the turnover criteria, enough so that they are our underdog.

 

PiRate Criteria: Creighton by 2                  Prediction: Creighton 76  Baylor 71

 

Virginia vs. Memphis

Virginia is subtly really good with excellent criteria scores in every respect.  Memphis has good criteria scores in every respect, and the Tigers have a decent strength of schedule, just not enough to overcome the Cavaliers’ superiority across the board.

 

PiRate Criteria: Virginia by 4                      Prediction: Virginia 65  Memphis 55

 

Arizona vs. Gonzaga

The Wildcats should take care of business and guarantee that all four top-seeds move on to the Sweet 16.  Gonzaga has a minor advantage in field goal margin, while Arizona has considerable advantage on the boards and decent advantage in turnover margin with a better strength of schedule.

 

PiRate Criteria: Arizona by 3                      Prediction: Arizona 62  Gonzaga 56

PiRate Ratings 2014 NCAA Tournament–Round Three Preview

Record in Round 2: 26-6 (81.3%)   Total for Tournament: 26-6 (81.3%)

 

The PiRate Criteria held up quite well in the opening two rounds.  In our preliminary comments Monday, we mentioned six major conference teams that our criteria said were vulnerable to first game exits.  Of those six (Arizona St., Connecticut, Nebraska, North Carolina St., Ohio St., and Oklahoma St.), five lost, with only UConn advancing.  We gave you five double-digit seeds that we thought could pull upsets in their first game (Harvard, Mercer, North Carolina Central, North Dakota St., and Stephen F. Austin), and four of those teams beat their favored opponent.

 

Here are the matchups for Saturday’s Round 3 games with our criteria comparisons.  Remember, the criteria spread is not the predicted spread for each game.  We have commenced with adding a predicted score from the interpretation of the criteria spread.

 

Look for Sunday’s games to post here some time Saturday evening.

 

Round 3 Schedule

Time	Region	Seed	Team	Seed	Team	Network
12:15 PM	South	1	Florida	9	Pittsburgh	CBS
2:45 PM	Midwest	4	Louisville	5	Saint Louis	CBS
5:15 PM	Midwest	2	Michigan	7	Texas	CBS
6:10 PM	West	4	San Diego St.	12	North Dakota St.	TNT
7:10 PM	South	3	Syracuse	11	Dayton	TBS
7:45 PM	West	2	Wisconsin	7	Oregon	CBS
8:40 PM	East	4	Michigan St.	12	Harvard	TNT
9:40 PM	East	2	Villanova	7	Connecticut	TBS

 

 

Florida vs. Pittsburgh

This should be much closer than people might expect.  Florida has the advantage in shooting, but Pitt has the advantage on the boards.  The Gators have a slight edge in turnover margin, but Pitt has the R+T advantage.

 

PiRate Criteria: Florida by 1                       Prediction: Florida 66  Pittsburgh 62

 

Louisville vs. Saint Louis

Louisville has the advantages on all fronts—shooting, rebounding, turnover margin, and the all-important R+T advantage.  The Billikens’ only chance in this game is to control the tempo and take smart shots, hoping to catch UL on a cold-shooting afternoon.

 

PiRate Criteria: Louisville by 8                   Prediction: Louisville 71  Saint Louis 57

 

Michigan vs. Texas

Michigan has a considerable shooting advantage, but Texas should capitalize on numerous extra scoring opportunities thanks to a superior R+T advantage.  This one will provide the viewer with an extreme contrast where the finesse team plays the power team.

 

PiRate Criteria: Michigan by 2                    Predication: Michigan 72  Texas 68

 

San Diego St. vs. North Dakota St.

North Dakota St. is the best shooting team in the tournament, but San Diego St. is one of the top defensive teams in the Dance.  The Aztecs’ biggest assets are their ability to force opponents into turnovers and into taking poor shots.

 

PiRate Criteria: San Diego St. by 3             Prediction: San Diego St. 78  North Dakota St. 71

 

Syracuse vs. Dayton

Syracuse could have a bad shooting night, but the Orange should still prevail.  Their major advantage on the glass combined with Dayton’s propensity to get sloppy handling the ball at times, should be the difference inthis game.

 

PiRate Criteria: Syracuse by 2                    Prediction: Syracuse 64  Dayton 58

 

Wisconsin vs. Oregon

This game is the closest of the Saturday games according to PiRate Criteria.  Shooting ability is even; rebounding is as well.  Oregon’s defense is better at forcing turnovers, but Wisconsin is one of the best at not turning the ball over.  A slight advantage in schedule strength tilts this game to the Badgers.

 

PiRate Criteria: Wisconsin by less than 1   Prediction: Wisconsin 68  Oregon 67

 

Michigan St. vs. Harvard

Michigan St. has small advantages across the board thanks to a much more difficult schedule.  Harvard could keep it close for some time, but the Spartans will eventually pull away to a comfortable margin.

 

PiRate Criteria: Michigan St. by 6              Prediction: Michigan St. 74  Harvard 62

 

Villanova vs. Connecticut

Connecticut has a negative R+T rating, and we cannot select any negative R+T team to win after the round of 64.  Villanova should neutralize UConn’s rebounding strength in the middle.

 

PiRate Criteria: Villanova by 4                   Prediction: Villanova 74  Connecticut 64

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament Preview–Opening and Second Rounds

Welcome back to the PiRate Ratings’ March Madness Bracketnomics Edition.

 

We coined the term “Bracketnomics,” several years ago to refer to the analytic way of looking at picking teams in your brackets.  While we have never come close to picking every game correctly, we have had a lot of success picking the national champion and Final Four participants.

 

What do we look for when we pick our winners?  It is easier to tell you what we do not pick.  Many of you may be familiar or not at all familiar with something called “The Four Factors.”  This is a very accurate predictor of NBA Games both in the regular season and in the playoffs.  It works to a point in the NCAA regular season.  However, it has many drawbacks in the NCAA Tournament.

 

For various reasons, the NCAA Tournament is an entirely different type of game compared to the regular season.  First and foremost, all teams are playing on foreign hardwood.  Sure, some teams have an advantage of mileage over others, but the gymnasium they will play in leads to no real home court advantage.  If Kentucky has 10,000 fans screaming, “Go Big Blue!” at a crucial point in the second half, this might fire up the team for a possession or two, but the Rupp Arena floor means a lot more to the Wildcats than the cheer that they receive in every road game with all their thousands of followers.  The playing floor, backboards, rims, and sightlines are much more valuable to the home team than the screaming fans.

 

The timeouts in the games are longer than normal timeouts, so substitution patterns are different, even if teams stick to the regular format.  If a team sends in its top two subs at the 13-minute mark of the first half and then plays these subs for six minutes, the two starters will be out at least two minutes longer in actual time and may possible need more time getting their heads back into the game.  Just two extra minutes of rest can cause different reactions, both positive and negative.

 

The obvious difference in the NCAA Tournament games are the elimination fear.  Because the players know the next loss is the last game of the season, and in some cases the last of their career, nerves play a much bigger factor in these games.  It is different in the NBA Playoffs where one loss does not end a season.

 

We could go on and one, but by now you should realize the differences as well.  Thus, the so-called “Four Factors” do not fit into the standard box.  We must come up with Big Dance Steps, or the factors that give us an insight into picking winners.

 

Over the years, we have isolated statistical tendencies that have helped us select winners in the NCAA Tournament.  We have looked at statistics of past champions and Final Four participants and have found certain similarities in these teams.

 

 

1. First and foremost, we look for teams that played better than average schedules.  It is obvious that a team can play 20 patsies and run up some really gaudy stats.  We look for teams that played tough schedules and reward them for that, but we do not totally eliminate mid-major teams that performed excellently against a mid-major schedule.  The best team in the land may play an average schedule, but they would still be the best team.  We have a metric that factors in the SOS into an equation.

 

2. Second, we look for teams that can win away from home.  If a team goes 22-8, with a home record of 18-1 and a record away from home (away and neutral games) of 4-7, this team is not ready to win six consecutive games, or even four, away from home.

 

Once we have isolated the teams that have played an above average schedule and have enjoyed some success away from home, we look at these vital statistics:

 

3. Scoring Margin—anything that is 8 or more is important.  We really like a scoring margin at 10 or more, as all but one of the 21^st Century champions have entered the Big Dance with a double digit scoring margin.  If a team has a 15-point or better scoring margin, and they satisfy the strength of schedule and road won-loss criteria, then watch out!  They are talented and have a killer attitude.

 

2. Field Goal Percentage Margin—this is a team’s offensive field goal percentage minus their defensive field goal percentage times 100.  The key here is a margin of +7.5% or better.

 

3. Rebounding Margin—a team with a rebounding margin of 5.0 or more has a chance to overcome a bad shooting game or a turnover-prone game.  We use a metric that factors the type of rebounds, as an offensive rebound leads to more potential points in a possession than a defensive rebound.  Many offensive rebounds become put-back baskets.

 

4. Turnover Margin—similar to rebounding margin, but we have a weighted scale here.  If a team out-rebounds its opponents by 3.0 or more, then any positive turnover margin is sufficient.  If a team out-rebounds its opponents by 0.1 to 2.9, then a turnover margin of 3.0 or better is required.  And, if a team does not out-rebound its opponents, they must have a turnover margin of 5.0 or more.

 

5. Average Steals Per Game—if the rebound is gold, the steal is platinum.  We consider a steal to be worth more than a defensive rebound.  When a team steals the ball, chances are highest for a fast break score.   Any team that averages 7.5 or more steals per game will have several cheap basket opportunities.  Any team with double digit steals per game will be monsters in the tournament, if they can hold their own on the boards.

 

6. The PiRate R+T Rating—if rebound margin is gold, and steals are platinum, then our R+T rating is rhodium.  This rating combines rebounding margin, turnover margin, and steals per game into one sabermetric-type rating, similar to any of several baseball ratings (like Wins Above Replacement).  The current formula uses an advanced formula, but you don’t have to bother with trying to figure these out for all 68 teams.  We have done that for you.  What we isolate are the teams with an R+T rating of 5.0 or better, paying extra attention to 10.0 or better.  If a team has a negative R+T rating, they are going home quickly even if they are a number 3 seed playing a number 14 seed, which is exactly what happened in 2010, when Georgetown had a negative R+T rating and not only was upset by Ohio U in the opening round, they were blown out of the gym.

 

The 2014 Field of 68

1. Which teams qualify on all of our stat requirements?

 

For the second consecutive season, none of the 68 teams qualify on all the statistical requirements that we look for in a clear cut national champion.  A couple teams came close this year.  Actually, the most perfect fits this year are a handful of mid-major and low-major teams missing in the all important strength of schedule criteria.  What does this tell us?  This could be another year where a team like George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth, Butler, and Wichita St. crashes the party at the Final Four.  Butler came within a couple inches of beating Duke for the title not too many years ago.  Could a Cinderella break through and win it all this year?  We are not calling for it, but it would be no big surprise this year, because there are not many teams with the quality of past Final Four participants.

 

 

2. Which major conference teams appear vulnerable based negative R+T ratings?

 

This is another reason why some smaller teams may have better chances this year.  A record six major conference teams possess negative R+T ratings this year.  These six are very ripe for upset losses early in the tournament.  Keep an eye on: Arizona St., Connecticut, Nebraska, North Carolina St., Ohio St., and Oklahoma St.  Of these six, Oklahoma St. and Arizona St. have abnormally negative R+T numbers, both at -4.5.  Basically, their opponents are getting about 4 ½ extra opportunities to score points in high percentage situations.  In the Big Dance, that is usually lethal.

 

 

4. Which less famous teams have criteria that shows they could upset a single-digit seed in the second round?

 

As we have said already, there are many smaller teams capable of winning a second round game and some capable of getting to the Sweet 16.  It depends on your definition of smaller team to decide if you might go with one of these teams to make the Elite 8 and Final Four.  Is Wichita St. a smaller team?  They are undefeated and ranked number two as a #1-seed.  How about Gonzaga?  They have been among the chosen “Few” for so long, can we really consider their winning tournament games a surprise?

 

Of the teams we really consider to be sleeper teams, keep an eye out on these six teams:

Harvard, Mercer, New Mexico St., North Carolina-Central, North Dakota St., and Stephen F. Austin.  These half-dozen teams have the talent to get hot and knock off a favored opponent.  If their schedules were just a tad tougher, we might even select one of these six to sneak past the Sweet 16 into the Elite 8.

 

 

6. So, who do we pick for the National Champion?

We have been playing with this decision all day.  One team has the look of a National Champion more than any of the other 67, but their strength of schedule bothers us a little this year, unlike last year.

 

However, we are going to go with this team, because their statistical criteria is the closest thing to a perfect fit without being a perfect fit.

 

And that team is: LOUISVILLE!  Yes, we are going with the Cardinals to repeat.  The Midwest Region is ridiculously strong this year.  So many pundits believe this was done to get rid of Wichita St., before the Shockers can get to Arlington in April.  We see no roadblocks in UL’s march to the Sweet 16.  Neither Manhattan, St. Louis, NC St.,  or Xavier have the abilities to stop the Cards.

 

The Sweet 16 game could be the toughest one Rick Pitino’s troops must conquer, as they will most likely play Wichita St. or Kentucky.  I would guess UL would rather play UK than a WSU team looking for revenge from last year’s Final Four semifinal.  The other side of the Midwest bracket should provide little resistance for the Cards.  Michigan and Duke have glaring weaknesses the Cardinals can exploit.

 

Who else looks like Final Four participants to us?  Read on.

 

 

NCAA Tournament Schedule for Opening and Second Rounds

Time	Region	Seed	Team	Seed	Team	Network
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
6:40 PM	South	16	Albany	16	Mount St. Mary’s	truTV
9:10 PM	Midwest	12	North Carolina St.	12	Xavier	truTV
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
6:40 PM	Midwest	16	Cal Poly	16	Texas Southern	truTV
9:10 PM	Midwest	11	Iowa	11	Tennessee	truTV
Thursday, March 20, 2014
12:15 PM	South	6	Ohio St.	11	Dayton	CBS
12:40 PM	West	2	Wisconsin	15	American	truTV
1:40 PM	South	8	Colorado	9	Pittsburgh	TBS
2:10 PM	East	5	Cincinnati	12	Harvard	TNT
2:45 PM	South	3	Syracuse	14	Western Michigan	CBS
3:10 PM	West	7	Oregon	10	B Y U	truTV
4:10 PM	South	1	Florida	16	Albany/Mount St. Mary’s	TBS
4:40 PM	East	4	Michigan St.	13	Delaware	TNT
6:55 PM	East	7	Connecticut	10	St. Joseph’s	TBS
7:10 PM	Midwest	2	Michigan	15	Wofford	CBS
7:20 PM	Midwest	5	Saint Louis	12	North Carolina St./Xavier	TNT
7:27 PM	West	5	Oklahoma	12	North Dakota St.	truTV
9:25 PM	East	3	Villanova	14	Milwaukee	TBS
9:40 PM	Midwest	7	Texas	10	Arizona St.	CBS
9:50 PM	Midwest	4	Louisville	13	Manhattan	TNT
9:57 PM	West	4	San Diego St.	13	New Mexico St.	truTV
Friday, March 21, 2014
12:15 PM	Midwest	3	Duke	14	Mercer	CBS
12:40 PM	West	6	Baylor	11	Nebraska	truTV
1:40 PM	South	7	New Mexico	10	Stanford	TBS
2:10 PM	West	1	Arizona	16	Weber St.	TNT
2:45 PM	Midwest	6	Massachusetts	11	Iowa/Tennessee	CBS
3:10 PM	West	3	Creighton	14	UL-Lafayette	truTV
4:10 PM	South	2	Kansas	15	Eastern Kentucky	TBS
4:40 PM	West	8	Gonzaga	9	Oklahoma St.	TNT
6:55 PM	East	8	Memphis	9	George Washington	TBS
7:10 PM	Midwest	1	Wichita St.	16	Cal Poly/Texas Southern	CBS
7:20 PM	East	6	North Carolina	11	Providence	TNT
7:27 PM	South	5	V C U	12	Stephen F. Austin	truTV
9:25 PM	East	1	Virginia	16	Coastal Carolina	TBS
9:40 PM	Midwest	8	Kentucky	9	Kansas St.	CBS
9:50 PM	East	3	Iowa St.	14	North Carolina-Central	TNT
9:57 PM	South	4	U C L A	13	Tulsa	truTV

 

Here are our picks for the first two rounds.  Of course, we will update the ratings and pick anew after round two with picks for Saturday on Friday night and picks for Sunday on Saturday night.

 

The spreads given here are devised from our PiRate Scores using our analytic formula that combines all our statistical criteria into a number.  The bigger the spread between the two teams, the more certain we are about the winner of a game.

 

***** These are not point spread predictions *****

They are criteria spread differences.  A difference of 1-3 represents a probable single-digit victory.  Be weary of a spread of just one point, as this is close to a tossup game.  A spread difference of 4 to 6 is on par with a 10-15 point victory.  A spread difference of 7 to 9 indicates a 15-22 point victory, and a spread difference of 10 or more indicates a blowout is possible.

 

Opening Round ( @ Dayton)

Albany  over  Mount St. Mary’s  by 4

Xavier  over  North Carolina St. by 3

Cal Poly over Texas Southern by 2

Tennessee over Iowa by 3

 

Second Round

 

East Region

Virginia over Coastal Carolina by 10

Memphis over George Washington by 1

Harvard over Cincinnati by less than 1

Michigan St. over Delaware by 7

North Carolina over Providence by 7

North Carolina Central over Iowa St. by 1 (Upset)

Connecticut over St. Joseph’s by 2

Villanova over Milwaukee by 11

 

South Region

Florida over Albany by 13

Pittsburgh over Colorado by 1

Virginia Commonwealth over Stephen F. Austin by 1

U C L A over Tulsa by 1

Ohio St. over Dayton by 3

Syracuse over Western Michigan by 2 (could be much closer than expected)

New Mexico over Stanford by 5

Kansas over Eastern Kentucky by 12

 

Midwest Region

Wichita St. over Cal Poly by 13

Kentucky over Kansas St. by 9

Saint Louis over Xavier by 2

Louisville over Manhattan by 9

Tennessee over Massachusetts by 3

Duke over Mercer by 2 (Could be similar to Duke-Belmont from the past)

Texas over Arizona St. by less than 1 (almost dead even)

Michigan over Wofford by 3

 

West Region

Arizona over Weber St. by 7

Gonzaga over Oklahoma St. by 3

North Dakota St. over Oklahoma by 3 (Upset)

San Diego St. over New Mexico St. by less than 1 (close to even)

Baylor over Nebraska by 6

Creighton over UL-Lafayette by 5

B Y U over Oregon by 2 (maybe the most exciting 2^nd round game)

Wisconsin over American by 8

 

For those that are filling out the entire bracket, here are our picks as of tonight

 

Advancing to the Sweet 16

Virginia

Michigan St.

North Carolina

Villanova

Florida

U C L A

Syracuse

Kansas

Wichita St.

Louisville

Duke

Texas

Arizona

San Diego St.

Baylor

Wisconsin

 

The Elite 8

Michigan St.

Villanova

Florida

Syracuse

Louisville

Duke

San Diego St.

Wisconsin

 

The Final 4

Michigan St.

Florida

Louisville

San Diego St. (our sleeper Final Four team)

 

Championship Game

Michigan St.

Louisville

 

Champion

Louisville

PiRate Ratings: College Football–November 19-23, 2013

Many Interesting Possible Trap Games This Week

As the season rounds the backstretch and heads for the wire, this week starts the trend of multiple trap games due to many factors.

 

Many teams have experienced a disappointment by not meeting expectations, yet they are bowl-eligible.  A team that is a disappointing 6-4 or 7-3 at this point will not get up to play its best.

 

As a counter to that, there are some teams that have stayed mathematically alive for bowl eligibility, when they were not expected to challenge for a .500 record.  Improving teams that are 4-6, 4-5, or 5-5 can be very dangerous, knowing that they can still get into a bowl.

 

Many teams enjoy an off week before a vital or rivalry game, while their opponent had to play the previous week.  Watch out for those teams coming off byes.  Any decent FBS coaching staff can discover and adjust a lot more when given an extra five to seven days to prepare.  Add rest to the banged up players, and this team plays its best games in this situation.

 

There is another factor.  Some teams began the year needing some added experience to reach their peak, and they are reaching their peak about now.  Other teams began with loads of experience and peaked in September.  They are sliding now, ripe for an upset loss.

 

Let’s take a look at some of the possibilities this week.

 

Northern Illinois at Toledo: Toledo qualifies as one of those teams that is peaking at the right time.  The Rockets have the talent and teamwork to end the Huskies’ BCS Bowl chances.  Look for an exciting, high scoring game, and Toledo has a 50-50 chance of pulling off the upset.

 

Navy at San Jose St: Navy is bowl eligible at 6-4; the Midshipmen are going to the Armed Forces Bowl regardless of the outcome of this game.  They are already looking forward to the Army game.  San Jose St. is 5-5 and needs one win in the last two to become bowl-eligible.  The other game is against Fresno St., so the Spartan players probably realize this is the game they must win.  Expect SJSU to bring their A-game, while Navy does not function on all cylinders.

 

USC at Colorado: On paper, this should be a major blowout.  However, Colorado is now in line for a bowl game if the Buffaloes can upset USC and win at Utah.  They would have to receive a waiver due to beating two FCS teams, but they had extenuating circumstances when they added Charleston Southern to the schedule after losing a game to the September flood in Boulder.  USC is due to bounce after the big upset win over Stanford.  While the Trojans should win, the margin could be a bunch less than expected.

 

Michigan St. at Northwestern: Northwestern was 4-0 when they took Ohio St. to the final minute of the game before losing.  The Wildcats have now lost six straight and must win their final two games to get back to a bowl.  With a weak Illinois team waiting, NU must pull off the big upset to finish 6-6.  Michigan St. can lose out and still make it to the Big Ten Championship Game.  The only way the Spartans can miss out now is to lose this game and to Minnesota, while Minnesota upsets Wisconsin.  In other words, the Spartans are already thinking about Ohio St.  Look for NU to cover the spread, and if MSU is really flat, watch out.

 

Oklahoma at Kansas St.: This game qualifies under two factors.  Oklahoma has been a disappointment and is looking forward to the rivalry game at Oklahoma St.  Kansas St. is peaking at the right time, and the Wildcats have a chance to move past the Sooners in the Big 12 standings.  KSU should be sky high for this game, while OU acts like they’d rather be taking a nap.

 

Memphis at Louisville: You might think this is a joke.  We don’t concur.  Memphis is 3-6 with games to be played against Temple and UConn.  It is reasonable to expect that the Tigers can win both games.  They need this upset win to make the final two meaningful.  Additionally, Memphis would like to show UL that this is still a fierce rivalry.  As for the Cardinals, they meet two of our qualifications.  This season is now a disappointment (they expected to go 12-0), and they peaked weeks ago.  UL is primed for one more loss before the bowls.

 

Michigan at Iowa: Michigan peaked earlier in the season, and now the Wolverines are treading water trying not to go under.  Ohio St. looms two weeks ahead.  Iowa had a week off, and the Hawkeyes are still improving.  Look for the black and gold to play with more effort than the maize and blue.

 

Wisconsin at Minnesota: Consider this one a cousin to our theories.  Wisconsin has not peaked, and this is a key rivalry game that they want to win.  The Badgers still have a shot at an at-large BCS Bowl berth.  Minnesota has even more to play for.  If they upset Wisconsin and Michigan St. loses to Northwestern, the Gophers will play Sparty for the Legends Division title the following week.  The Gophers are peaking in November, so this game should be one of the most entertaining rivalry games this year.  Paul Bunyan’s axe may stay in Madison, but we think this game will be close.

 

Utah at Washington St.: This is a tossup game to begin with, but Utah has more to play for.  The Cougars believe they can topple their arch-rival Huskies in the Apple Cup game on Black Friday, and they might be taking a peak forward.  Utah is perhaps the best 4-6 team in the nation, and the Utes must win out to go bowling.

 

Vanderbilt at Tennessee: Tennessee has three things going for it in this game.  The Volunteers were not expected to play above .500 in Butch Jones’ first year on the hill.  However, wins in this game and at Kentucky next week will send the Orange to Memphis and the Liberty Bowl.  Tennessee had a week off while Vanderbilt played a tough game against Kentucky.  Now, add the revenge factor after Vandy put the biggest embarrassment on the UT football program since the Vols lost to Chattanooga decades ago, and even though the black and gold looks to be 14-20 points more talented, we believe this game will be decided in the final minutes.

 

For The Third Time Ever

It happened in 1974 and again in 1983, and for just the third time, it happens again this weekend.  Florida St. is a 70+ point PiRate Rating favorite against Idaho.

 

We do not have the records for 1969 through 1988, but we do have our memories.  In September of 1974, Oklahoma was a 70-something point favorite over Wake Forest.  What we do remember is that the Deacons came into that game not having won in their previous 13, while Oklahoma had not lost in their previous 20.  We think the actual spread was 74 points (we did not have decimals in those days, just whole numbers).  The Sooners won that game 72-3.

 

In 1983, Nebraska played Minnesota as a 71-point favorite in our ratings.  In the early 1980’s, we actually predicted scores, and our prediction for that game was 77-6.  The actual final was 84-13, an exact 71-point margin.

 

We missed on several 70-point wins in the past.  When Houston almost hung 100 on SMU and won 95-21 back in the late 1980’s, we had the Cougars favored by 59.  We did not rate teams in 1968, but this is the weekend anniversary of Houston’s 100-6 win over Tulsa in 1968.  Florida St. could score 100 points in this game, but they will not do so.  Expect the starters to come out as early as the start of the second quarter.  The Seminoles could lead 42-0 after one quarter and 56-0 by halftime, but Jimbo Fisher will not allow his team to score 44 more points, even though FSU could score 112 points in this game (4 TDs per quarter).

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular
1	Alabama	136.5
2	Florida St.	136.2
3	Oregon	133.1
4	Baylor	130.7
5	Ohio St.	128.5
6	Stanford	126.0
7	Oklahoma St.	124.0
8	Arizona St.	124.0
9	Missouri	123.8
10	Wisconsin	123.6
11	L S U	122.6
12	Clemson	121.5
13	Texas A&M	121.5
14	Michigan St.	120.4
15	Washington	119.7
16	Ole Miss	119.3
17	U S C	119.1
18	U C L A	119.1
19	Auburn	119.1
20	South Carolina	119.1
21	Texas	115.8
22	Oklahoma	115.8
23	Oregon St.	115.4
24	Georgia	115.0
25	B Y U	114.9
26	Louisville	114.4
27	Kansas St.	114.0
28	Florida	112.4
29	Arizona	111.9
30	Michigan	111.8
31	Nebraska	111.5
32	Georgia Tech	110.8
33	Miami	110.8
34	Notre Dame	110.7
35	Utah	110.3
36	Northwestern	108.5
37	Vanderbilt	108.2
38	Mississippi St.	108.2
39	Texas Tech	107.5
40	Cincinnati	107.4
41	North Carolina	107.3
42	Virginia Tech	107.3
43	Iowa	106.8
44	Fresno St.	106.7
45	T C U	106.7
46	Central Florida	106.6
47	East Carolina	106.5
48	Minnesota	106.4
49	Duke	105.2
50	Boise St.	105.2
51	Utah St.	105.1
52	Northern Illinois	104.8
53	Penn St.	104.4
54	Bowling Green	104.4
55	Washington St.	104.0
56	Houston	102.7
57	Tennessee	102.2
58	Boston College	101.7
59	Indiana	101.7
60	Toledo	101.5
61	West Virginia	101.0
62	Marshall	100.7
63	Pittsburgh	100.4
64	Ball St.	100.0
65	North Texas	99.7
66	Buffalo	99.7
67	Syracuse	98.9
68	Rice	98.3
69	Wake Forest	98.3
70	Kentucky	98.2
71	Maryland	97.0
72	Illinois	96.9
73	Navy	96.8
74	Colorado St.	96.3
75	Arkansas	95.9
76	San Jose St.	95.8
77	S M U	95.1
78	San Diego St.	93.7
79	Kansas	93.5
80	Louisiana–Lafayette	93.3
81	Arkansas St.	93.2
82	Rutgers	93.1
83	Iowa St.	91.7
84	Florida Atlantic	91.2
85	Memphis	91.1
86	North Carolina St.	91.0
87	U T S A	90.4
88	Colorado	89.9
89	Western Kentucky	89.6
90	Temple	89.6
91	California	89.5
92	Virginia	89.1
93	Ohio	89.1
94	Middle Tennessee	88.4
95	Tulane	87.5
96	U N L V	87.2
97	South Florida	86.6
98	Purdue	86.6
99	Kent St.	86.3
100	Louisiana–Monroe	86.1
101	Nevada	85.9
102	Tulsa	85.9
103	South Alabama	85.9
104	Wyoming	85.6
105	Connecticut	83.5
106	Troy	83.2
107	Hawaii	83.0
108	Central Michigan	82.4
109	Akron	82.2
110	Texas St.	82.1
111	Army	82.0
112	New Mexico	81.3
113	Air Force	79.3
114	Louisiana Tech	78.9
115	U T E P	78.6
116	U A B	77.5
117	Western Michigan	75.6
118	Massachusetts	72.8
119	New Mexico St.	72.7
120	Eastern Michigan	71.1
121	Miami (O)	70.5
122	Idaho	68.1
123	Florida Int’l	66.1
124	Georgia St.	64.8
125	Southern Miss.	64.6

 

PiRate Mean
1	Florida St.	140.2
2	Alabama	132.7
3	Oregon	129.6
4	Ohio St.	127.5
5	Wisconsin	124.5
6	Baylor	124.2
7	Arizona St.	123.1
8	Clemson	123.0
9	Missouri	122.0
10	Michigan St.	121.0
11	L S U	120.4
12	Texas A&M	119.3
13	Stanford	119.0
14	Auburn	118.4
15	South Carolina	116.5
16	Ole Miss	116.3
17	Oklahoma St.	116.0
18	U S C	115.8
19	Washington	115.6
20	U C L A	114.5
21	B Y U	113.7
22	Louisville	113.5
23	Georgia	112.8
24	Miami	111.8
25	Michigan	111.8
26	Oklahoma	110.9
27	Georgia Tech	110.1
28	Nebraska	109.9
29	Houston	109.8
30	Central Florida	109.7
31	Florida	109.5
32	North Carolina	108.8
33	Notre Dame	108.6
34	East Carolina	108.5
35	Arizona	108.3
36	Virginia Tech	108.1
37	Utah	108.1
38	Oregon St.	108.0
39	Cincinnati	107.6
40	Texas	107.5
41	Northern Illinois	107.4
42	Kansas St.	106.8
43	Duke	106.6
44	Minnesota	106.6
45	Vanderbilt	106.5
46	Fresno St.	106.4
47	Northwestern	106.1
48	Iowa	106.0
49	Mississippi St.	105.8
50	Bowling Green	105.3
51	Penn St.	105.0
52	Marshall	104.1
53	Toledo	103.7
54	Indiana	103.4
55	Ball St.	103.3
56	Utah St.	103.3
57	Washington St.	103.1
58	Boston College	102.8
59	Texas Tech	102.6
60	North Texas	102.4
61	Boise St.	101.9
62	Buffalo	101.8
63	Rice	101.1
64	T C U	101.1
65	Tennessee	101.1
66	Wake Forest	101.1
67	Maryland	100.2
68	Pittsburgh	99.8
69	Syracuse	98.9
70	Illinois	98.7
71	Navy	98.6
72	Arkansas	98.3
73	Kentucky	97.0
74	S M U	96.6
75	Colorado St.	96.3
76	Rutgers	95.8
77	Memphis	95.8
78	Louisiana–Lafayette	95.0
79	North Carolina St.	94.4
80	West Virginia	94.2
81	San Jose St.	93.4
82	Middle Tennessee	93.2
83	San Diego St.	92.7
84	Arkansas St.	92.5
85	Ohio	92.4
86	U T S A	92.4
87	Western Kentucky	91.9
88	Florida Atlantic	91.7
89	Temple	91.2
90	Tulane	90.9
91	Virginia	90.8
92	Colorado	90.2
93	Kansas	89.2
94	Kent St.	89.1
95	U N L V	88.8
96	South Alabama	88.7
97	Nevada	87.5
98	Army	87.5
99	Louisiana–Monroe	86.9
100	Wyoming	86.7
101	Texas St.	86.6
102	Akron	85.9
103	Troy	85.8
104	California	85.7
105	Tulsa	85.2
106	New Mexico	85.0
107	Central Michigan	84.7
108	Purdue	84.3
109	South Florida	84.0
110	Iowa St.	83.7
111	Hawaii	83.2
112	Air Force	82.7
113	Louisiana Tech	81.0
114	U T E P	80.7
115	Connecticut	80.0
116	U A B	78.4
117	Massachusetts	77.8
118	Western Michigan	77.5
119	New Mexico St.	75.8
120	Eastern Michigan	73.7
121	Miami (O)	73.5
122	Idaho	72.0
123	Georgia St.	70.5
124	Florida Int’l	68.1
125	Southern Miss.	64.6

 

PiRate Bias
1	Florida St.	138.1
2	Alabama	137.2
3	Oregon	133.7
4	Baylor	132.8
5	Ohio St.	128.7
6	Stanford	125.4
7	Wisconsin	124.8
8	Oklahoma St.	124.3
9	Arizona St.	123.6
10	Missouri	123.2
11	L S U	123.1
12	Clemson	123.0
13	Texas A&M	121.3
14	Michigan St.	120.0
15	Auburn	119.2
16	U S C	119.1
17	Washington	119.1
18	Ole Miss	118.6
19	U C L A	118.1
20	South Carolina	118.0
21	B Y U	115.9
22	Oklahoma	115.3
23	Louisville	114.9
24	Georgia	114.5
25	Texas	114.4
26	Oregon St.	113.7
27	Kansas St.	113.2
28	Florida	111.2
29	Miami	110.8
30	Michigan	110.8
31	Georgia Tech	110.5
32	Utah	110.4
33	Nebraska	110.3
34	Arizona	110.1
35	Notre Dame	109.0
36	Mississippi St.	108.6
37	North Carolina	108.4
38	Northwestern	108.3
39	Vanderbilt	108.0
40	Central Florida	107.7
41	East Carolina	107.3
42	Cincinnati	107.2
43	Iowa	107.1
44	Virginia Tech	106.9
45	Texas Tech	106.7
46	Boise St.	106.6
47	Utah St.	106.6
48	Minnesota	106.4
49	Fresno St.	106.3
50	T C U	106.2
51	Northern Illinois	105.8
52	Bowling Green	105.2
53	Duke	104.8
54	Washington St.	104.8
55	Houston	104.3
56	Penn St.	103.3
57	Boston College	102.9
58	Toledo	102.7
59	Marshall	102.1
60	Indiana	101.2
61	Buffalo	101.1
62	Tennessee	101.1
63	North Texas	100.9
64	Ball St.	100.8
65	Pittsburgh	100.3
66	West Virginia	100.0
67	Rice	99.0
68	Wake Forest	98.8
69	Syracuse	98.4
70	Kentucky	98.4
71	Maryland	98.2
72	Navy	97.2
73	Colorado St.	97.2
74	Illinois	96.4
75	San Jose St.	96.2
76	Arkansas	94.7
77	S M U	94.6
78	San Diego St.	94.2
79	Louisiana–Lafayette	93.6
80	Arkansas St.	93.3
81	Kansas	93.1
82	Rutgers	93.0
83	Florida Atlantic	92.3
84	Memphis	91.8
85	North Carolina St.	91.4
86	Iowa St.	90.3
87	U T S A	90.2
88	Western Kentucky	89.7
89	Middle Tennessee	89.4
90	Ohio	89.4
91	Temple	89.4
92	Virginia	89.1
93	Colorado	88.4
94	Tulane	87.9
95	U N L V	87.8
96	California	87.5
97	Kent St.	86.5
98	Wyoming	86.3
99	South Alabama	86.3
100	Louisiana–Monroe	86.1
101	South Florida	86.1
102	Nevada	85.9
103	Tulsa	84.8
104	Troy	84.2
105	Purdue	84.1
106	Hawaii	83.6
107	Army	83.4
108	Connecticut	82.9
109	Akron	82.6
110	Texas St.	82.3
111	Central Michigan	82.0
112	New Mexico	81.9
113	Air Force	79.1
114	Louisiana Tech	78.2
115	U T E P	78.0
116	U A B	76.4
117	Western Michigan	75.5
118	Massachusetts	72.9
119	New Mexico St.	72.6
120	Eastern Michigan	70.0
121	Miami (O)	69.1
122	Idaho	67.9
123	Georgia St.	66.1
124	Florida Int’l	65.5
125	Southern Miss.	63.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisville	5-1	9-1	114.4	113.5	114.9
Cincinnati	5-1	8-2	107.4	107.6	107.2
Central Florida	5-0	8-1	106.6	109.7	107.7
Houston	4-2	7-3	102.7	109.8	104.3
S M U	3-2	4-5	95.1	96.6	94.6
Rutgers	2-3	5-4	93.1	95.8	93.0
Memphis	1-4	3-6	91.1	95.8	91.8
Temple	0-6	1-9	89.6	91.2	89.4
South Florida	2-3	2-7	86.6	84.0	86.1
Connecticut	0-5	0-9	83.5	80.0	82.9
League Averages			97.0	98.4	97.2

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Florida St.	8-0	10-0	136.2	140.2	138.1
Clemson	7-1	9-1	121.5	123.0	123.0
Boston College	3-3	6-4	101.7	102.8	102.9
Syracuse	3-3	5-5	98.9	98.9	98.4
Wake Forest	2-5	4-6	98.3	101.1	98.8
Maryland	2-4	6-4	97.0	100.2	98.2
North Carolina St.	0-7	3-7	91.0	94.4	91.4
Coastal Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Georgia Tech	5-3	6-4	110.8	110.1	110.5
Miami	3-3	7-3	110.8	111.8	110.8
North Carolina	4-3	5-5	107.3	108.8	108.4
Virginia Tech	4-3	7-4	107.3	108.1	106.9
Duke	4-2	8-2	105.2	106.6	104.8
Pittsburgh	2-4	5-5	100.4	99.8	100.3
Virginia	0-6	2-8	89.1	90.8	89.1
League Averages			105.4	106.9	105.8

 

Big 12 Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Baylor	6-0	9-0	130.7	124.2	132.8
Oklahoma St.	6-1	9-1	124.0	116.0	124.3
Texas	6-1	7-3	115.8	107.5	114.4
Oklahoma	5-2	8-2	115.8	110.9	115.3
Kansas St.	4-3	6-4	114.0	106.8	113.2
Texas Tech	4-4	7-4	107.5	102.6	106.7
T C U	2-6	4-7	106.7	101.1	106.2
West Virginia	2-6	4-7	101.0	94.2	100.0
Kansas	1-6	3-7	93.5	89.2	93.1
Iowa St.	0-7	1-9	91.7	83.7	90.3
League Averages			110.1	103.6	109.6

 

Big Ten Conference
Leaders Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Ohio St.	6-0	10-0	128.5	127.5	128.7
Wisconsin	5-1	8-2	123.6	124.5	124.8
Penn St.	3-3	6-4	104.4	105.0	103.3
Indiana	2-4	4-6	101.7	103.4	101.2
Illinois	0-6	3-7	96.9	98.7	96.4
Purdue	0-6	1-9	86.6	84.3	84.1
Legends Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Michigan St.	6-0	9-1	120.4	121.0	120.0
Michigan	3-3	7-3	111.8	111.8	110.8
Nebraska	4-2	7-3	111.5	109.9	110.3
Northwestern	0-6	4-6	108.5	106.1	108.3
Iowa	3-3	6-4	106.8	106.0	107.1
Minnesota	4-2	8-2	106.4	106.6	106.4
League Averages			108.9	108.7	108.5

 

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
East Carolina	6-1	8-2	106.5	108.5	107.3
Marshall	5-1	7-3	100.7	104.1	102.1
Florida Atlantic	3-4	4-6	91.2	91.7	92.3
Middle Tennessee	4-2	6-4	88.4	93.2	89.4
U A B	1-5	2-8	77.5	78.4	76.4
Florida Int’l	1-5	1-9	66.1	68.1	65.5
Southern Miss.	0-6	0-10	64.6	64.6	63.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
North Texas	5-1	7-3	99.7	102.4	100.9
Rice	5-1	7-3	98.3	101.1	99.0
U T S A	4-2	5-5	90.4	92.4	90.2
Tulane	4-2	6-4	87.5	90.9	87.9
Tulsa	1-5	2-8	85.9	85.2	84.8
Louisiana Tech	3-3	4-6	78.9	81.0	78.2
U T E P	1-5	2-8	78.6	80.7	78.0
League Averages			86.7	88.7	86.8

 

Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
B Y U		7-3	114.9	113.7	115.9
Notre Dame		7-3	110.7	108.6	109.0
Navy		6-4	96.8	98.6	97.2
Army		3-7	82.0	87.5	83.4
Idaho		1-9	68.1	72.0	67.9
New Mexico St.		1-9	72.7	75.8	72.6
Independent Avg’s.			90.9	92.7	91.0

 

Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Bowling Green	5-1	7-3	104.4	105.3	105.2
Buffalo	5-1	7-3	99.7	101.8	101.1
Ohio	3-3	6-4	89.1	92.4	89.4
Kent St.	2-5	3-8	86.3	89.1	86.5
Akron	3-4	4-7	82.2	85.9	82.6
Massachusetts	1-5	1-9	72.8	77.8	72.9
Miami (O)	0-6	0-10	70.5	73.5	69.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Northern Illinois	6-0	10-0	104.8	107.4	105.8
Toledo	5-1	7-3	101.5	103.7	102.7
Ball St.	6-1	9-2	100.0	103.3	100.8
Central Michigan	3-3	4-6	82.4	84.7	82.0
Western Michigan	1-6	1-10	75.6	77.5	75.5
Eastern Michigan	1-5	2-8	71.1	73.7	70.0
League Averages			87.7	90.5	88.0

 

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Boise St.	5-1	7-3	105.2	101.9	106.6
Utah St.	5-1	6-4	105.1	103.3	106.6
Colorado St.	4-2	6-5	96.3	96.3	97.2
Wyoming	2-4	4-6	85.6	86.7	86.3
New Mexico	1-5	3-7	81.3	85.0	81.9
Air Force	0-6	2-8	79.3	82.7	79.1
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Fresno St.	6-0	9-0	106.7	106.4	106.3
San Jose St.	4-3	5-5	95.8	93.4	96.2
San Diego St.	5-1	6-4	93.7	92.7	94.2
U N L V	3-3	5-5	87.2	88.8	87.8
Nevada	3-5	4-7	85.9	87.5	85.9
Hawaii	0-7	0-10	83.0	83.2	83.6
League Averages			92.1	92.3	92.6

 

Pacific 12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Oregon	6-1	9-1	133.1	129.6	133.7
Stanford	6-2	8-2	126.0	119.0	125.4
Washington	3-4	6-4	119.7	115.6	119.1
Oregon St.	4-3	6-4	115.4	108.0	113.7
Washington St.	3-4	5-5	104.0	103.1	104.8
California	0-8	1-10	89.5	85.7	87.5
South Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Arizona St.	6-1	8-2	124.0	123.1	123.6
U S C	5-2	8-3	119.1	115.8	119.1
U C L A	5-2	8-2	119.1	114.5	118.1
Arizona	3-4	6-4	111.9	108.3	110.1
Utah	1-6	4-6	110.3	108.1	110.4
Colorado	1-6	4-6	89.9	90.2	88.4
League Averages			113.5	110.1	112.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Missouri	5-1	9-1	123.8	122.0	123.2
South Carolina	6-2	8-2	119.1	116.5	118.0
Georgia	4-3	6-4	115.0	112.8	114.5
Florida	3-5	4-6	112.4	109.5	111.2
Vanderbilt	3-4	6-4	108.2	106.5	108.0
Tennessee	1-5	4-6	102.2	101.1	101.1
Kentucky	0-6	2-8	98.2	97.0	98.4
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Alabama	7-0	10-0	136.5	132.7	137.2
L S U	3-3	7-3	122.6	120.4	123.1
Texas A&M	4-2	8-2	121.5	119.3	121.3
Ole Miss	3-3	7-3	119.3	116.3	118.6
Auburn	6-1	10-1	119.1	118.4	119.2
Mississippi St.	1-5	4-6	108.2	105.8	108.6
Arkansas	0-6	3-7	95.9	98.3	94.7
League Averages			114.4	112.6	114.1

 

Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Louisiana–Lafayette	5-0	8-2	93.3	95.0	93.6
Arkansas St.	4-1	6-4	93.2	92.5	93.3
Western Kentucky	2-3	6-4	89.6	91.9	89.7
Louisiana–Monroe	3-2	5-5	86.1	86.9	86.1
South Alabama	1-3	3-6	85.9	88.7	86.3
Troy	3-3	5-6	83.2	85.8	84.2
Texas St.	2-3	6-4	82.1	86.6	82.3
Georgia St.	0-5	0-10	64.8	70.5	66.1
League Averages			84.8	87.2	85.2

 

Transitioning Teams
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Old Dominion		8-3	85.7	87.2	92.0
Georgia Southern		6-3	82.9	85.3	90.0
Appalachian St.		2-8	73.4	72.3	80.1
Charlotte		4-6	57.2	61.8	64.3
Not figured in regular averages to 100			74.8	76.7	81.6

 

This Week’s Spreads

Date:	November 19-23, 2013
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Miami (O)	Buffalo	-26.7	-25.8	-29.5
Ohio	Kent St.	5.3	5.8	5.4
Toledo	Northern Illinois	-0.3	-0.7	-0.1
Central Florida	Rutgers	16.5	16.9	17.7
U A B	Rice	-18.3	-20.2	-20.1
Air Force	U N L V	-4.9	-3.1	-5.7
San Jose St.	Navy	2.5	-1.7	2.5
Stanford	California	39.0	35.8	40.4
Arizona	Oregon	-18.2	-18.3	-20.6
U C L A	Arizona St.	-1.9	-5.6	-2.5
Colorado	U S C	-26.2	-22.6	-27.7
Northwestern	Michigan St.	-8.9	-11.9	-8.7
Kansas St.	Oklahoma	1.2	-1.1	0.9
Louisville	Memphis	26.3	20.7	26.1
Miami (Fla)	Virginia	24.7	24.0	24.7
Wake Forest	Duke	-4.4	-3.0	-3.5
Houston	Cincinnati	-1.7	5.2	0.1
Iowa	Michigan	-2.0	-2.8	-0.7
Purdue	Illinois	-7.8	-11.9	-9.8
Arkansas	Mississippi St.	-9.3	-4.5	-10.9
North Carolina St.	East Carolina	-13.0	-11.6	-13.4
Syracuse	Pittsburgh	1.5	2.1	1.1
Central Michigan	Massachusetts	12.1	9.4	11.6
Eastern Michigan	Bowling Green	-30.8	-29.1	-32.7
Wyoming	Hawaii	6.6	7.5	6.7
Arkansas St.	Georgia St.	31.4	25.0	30.2
Florida Atlantic	New Mexico St.	21.5	18.9	22.7
Florida St.	Idaho	71.6	71.7	73.7
Ohio St.	Indiana	29.8	27.1	30.5
L S U	Texas A&M	4.1	4.1	4.8
Minnesota	Wisconsin	-14.2	-14.9	-15.4
Notre Dame	B Y U	-1.2	-2.1	-3.9
Maryland	Boston College	-1.7	0.4	-1.7
Penn St.	Nebraska	-4.1	-1.9	-4.0
North Texas	U T S A	11.8	12.5	13.2
Washington St.	Utah	-3.3	-3.0	-2.6
Utah St.	Colorado St.	11.8	10.0	12.4
Southern Miss.	Middle Tennessee	-21.8	-26.6	-23.9
Tulane	U T E P	11.4	12.7	12.4
Fresno St.	New Mexico	28.4	24.4	27.4
Florida Int’l	Marshall	-32.1	-33.5	-34.1
Georgia	Kentucky	19.8	18.8	19.1
South Alabama	UL-Monroe	2.3	4.3	2.7
South Florida	S M U	-5.5	-9.6	-5.5
Temple	Connecticut	8.1	13.2	8.5
Texas St.	Western Kentucky	-4.5	-2.3	-4.4
Louisiana Tech	Tulsa	-4.0	-1.2	-3.6
Tennessee	Vanderbilt	-3.0	-2.4	-3.9
Ole Miss	Missouri	-1.5	-2.7	-1.6
Oklahoma St.	Baylor	-3.7	-5.2	-5.5
Iowa St.	Kansas	1.2	-2.5	0.2
San Diego St.	Boise St.	-8.5	-6.2	-9.4
Oregon St.	Washington	-1.3	-4.6	-2.4

 

PiRate Bowl Projections

GAME	Team	vs.	Team
New Mexico	Colorado St.	vs.	Oregon St.
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas	Boise St.	vs.	U C L A
Famous Idaho Potato	Arizona *	vs.	Toledo
New Orleans	UL-Lafayette	vs.	Tulane
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s	Western Kentucky *	vs.	Middle Tennessee
Hawai’i	San Diego St.	vs.	Rice
Little Caesars Pizza	Ball St.	vs.	Texas St. *
Poinsettia	Utah St.	vs.	Washington St. *
Military Bowl	Georgia Tech	vs.	Marshall
Texas	Michigan	vs.	Kansas St.
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl	Washington	vs.	B Y U %
Pinstripe	Rutgers	vs.	Notre Dame *
Belk	Cincinnati	vs.	Maryland
Russell Athletic	Louisville	vs.	Miami
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl	Texas	vs.	Iowa
Armed Forces	U N L V	vs.	Navy %
Music City	Syracuse	vs.	Georgia
Alamo	Oklahoma	vs.	Stanford
Holiday	Texas Tech	vs.	Arizona St.
AdvoCare V100 Bowl	Buffalo *	vs.	North Carolina
Sun	Virginia Tech	vs.	U S C
Liberty	Tennessee	vs.	East Carolina
Chick-fil-A	Duke	vs.	Texas A&M
Heart Of Dallas	North Texas	vs.	Bowling Green *
Gator	Minnesota	vs.	Ole Miss
Outback	South Carolina	vs.	Nebraska
Capital One	Wisconsin	vs.	Missouri
Rose	Michigan St.	vs.	Oregon
Fiesta	Oklahoma St.	vs.	Fresno St.
Sugar	Auburn	vs.	Central Florida
Cotton	L S U	vs.	Baylor
Orange	Ohio St.	vs.	Clemson
BBVA Compass Bowl	Houston	vs.	Vanderbilt
GoDaddy.com	Arkansas St.	vs.	Northern Illinois
BCS Championship	Alabama	vs.	Florida St.
* At-Large Selection
% Already Accepted Bid
Bowl-Eligible Teams Left Out
Boston College
Central Michigan
Florida Atlantic
Ohio
Pittsburgh
Troy
U T S A