The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 5, 2018

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlays for September 6-10, 2018

With the NFL kicking off Thursday night, this is the first weekend where the handicappers have both college and pro regular season football to consider when making their selections.

It has been a custom at the PiRate Ratings that we make the maximum number of picks on this week of the season.  We will be going with 11 selections this week, using a combination of straight wagers, money line parlays, and 10-point teasers.

As usual, please be advised that every selection made on this website is absolutely free to you, and you should consider the value of the information to struggle to meet the monetary cost you pay to receive it.  In other words, unless you are a sharp in the Caribbean that knows how to use our picks and make a fortune, please do not wager your hard-earned money on games using this site as your sole reference.  The PiRates do this strictly for mathematical fun.

Here are this week’s PiRate Picks.

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Michigan St. Arizona St. 5 1/2 Mich. St.
BYU California 3 1/2 California
Indiana Virginia 7 Virginia
Georgia Tech South Florida 3 Ga. Tech
Stanford USC 4 Stanford
Money Line Parlay @+238
Winner Loser
North Carolina East Carolina
Maryland Bowling Green
Florida Kentucky
Stanford USC
Michigan St. Arizona St.
Money Line Parlay @ +182
Winner Loser
Purdue Eastern Michigan
Georgia South Carolina
Appalachian St. Charlotte
UAB Coastal Carolina
Penn St. Pittsburgh
Money Line Parlay @+237
Winner Loser
Pittsburgh Cleveland
Baltimore Buffalo
New Orleans Tampa Bay
New England Houston
Money Line Game @+140
Winner Loser
Cincinnati Indianapolis
10-point teaser 3-team parlay -110
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Coastal Carolina UAB 1 UAB
Indiana Virginia 17 Virginia
Purdue Eastern Mich. 5 1/2 Purdue
10-point teaser 3-team parlay -110
Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Georgia South Carolina Pk Georgia
USC Stanford 6 Stanford
Clemson Texas A&M 2 Clemson

The PiRates are adding some buckaroos to the ship this season for their expertise in picking football games. In addition to our own picks, each of the buckaroos and buckarettes will supply his or her own picks to us each week. If they prove their worth, we’ll run their picks up the flagpole every week, but if they lose too much, they’ll walk the plank.

To start off, each has been granted an unlimited bank account to wager an odd number of games of 3, 5, 7, or 9 selections each week isolated to just college football. All pretend wagers will be $100 a game, so it will be easy to calculate. If they win, they earn another $100 to their imaginary account. If they lose, then $110 will be deducted.

Our guest players have all chosen their user names for this event, so here is a brief introduction on each player–in alphabetical order.

1. Buckeye Michelle lives in Florida, after growing up in the Cleveland area. Don’t let her gender fool you; she knows football. She can recognize coverage zones by the defense, but most of all, she sees what most of us don’t see–value. If you ever need a personal shopper, Michie is the one for you. She’ll find you a lot of bargains.

2. Cal Gal Tiffy lives on the West Coast, and yes, she is another member of the fairer sex. A tomboy who played tackle football with the boys growing up, she matured into a model and now is a makeup artist that never misses a Stanford home game.

3. Dean 615 is a former college football star and played in the NFL for a decade. Dean knows how to evaluate talent and can watch a game and see all 22 players and know who missed his assignment. Dean has a room full of trophies in his home.

4. Friday Dog 13 is a rabid football fan and friend of the Captains for 40+ years. Friday Dog has seen more than 100 football games in person, many at Vanderbilt’s Dudley Field and many at Peden Stadium in Athens, Ohio. Friday Dog is an expert in hometown football.

5. Stewed Meat is a professional sharp. Stewed has cashed some rather expensive tickets in Las Vegas and has been banned in some places or been forced to play no more than a certain amount on college games. Stewed is the Captain’s source for receiving the “Outlaw” line as well as how quickly the lines flattened and which games saw sharps playing both sides for the middle. Stewed has placed a grand on one parlay and won $10K when the parlay came in. Stewed has also watched a botched extra point kill a $25K wager. Stewed plays money line parlays almost exclusively and has admitted that playing individual games against the spread is not Stewed’s expertise.
Note–The odds chosen were the best available at Oddshark.com at the time of the submission to the Captain.

Here are the picks this week for each player.
1. Buckeye Michelle
Rice +17 1/2 vs. Hawaii
Louisiana-Monroe + 6 1/2 vs. Southern Miss.
Colorado St. +13 1/2 vs. Arkansas
Kentucky +14 1/2 vs. Florida
Tulsa +23 vs. Texas

2. Cal Gal Tiffy
Stanford -4 vs. USC
California +3 1/2 vs. BYU
Iowa -3 1/3 vs. Iowa St.
Notre Dame -34 vs. Ball St.
Army -8 1/2 vs. Liberty
Central Michigan -4 vs. Kansas
Georgia -10 vs. South Carolina

3. Dean 73
Notre Dame -34 vs. Ball St.
Appalachian St. -13 1/2 vs. Charlotte
UAB -9 vs. Coastal Carolina

4. Friday Dog 13
Vanderbilt -8 1/2 vs. Nevada
Ohio St. -34 1/2 vs. Rutgers
Mississippi St. -9 1/2 vs. Kansas St.

5. Stewed Meat
Western Michigan +28 vs. Michigan
Stanford -4 vs. USC
Rutgers +35 1/2 vs. Ohio St.
Iowa -3 1/2 vs. Iowa St.
Wyoming +18 vs. Missouri

 

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October 27, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 27-31, 2016

The Hook
We talked about this in a previous posting, but we now have real data to show you why you should not wager real money on our picks. Last week, we hit a small bonanza, and we came within a few seconds of a major, albeit imaginary, windfall profit.

We issued four long shot money line parlays, each returning better than 2 to 1 odds. We won on two of the four and came within seconds of winning the third one. As it is, our profit from last week was 61% return on the investment. Had that third game that we lost in the last seconds been a winner as well, our profit would have exceeded 100% on the investment.

It’s the “last-second”, “one play,” “fluke play” stuff that hooks the investor to make him or her return the next week to wager more. We have no problem with this. We can wager “$500,000,” and it is the same as if we wagered “$1.” It’s just a fun exercise for a half dozen math geeks, four of whom are members of the fairer sex by the way.

What we have noticed so far this season is that our college picks are winning, while the NFL picks are not doing well at all. The 2016 NFL season has been too tipsy-turvy to hit on parlays. Sure, you can pick New England to win at -300, but that won’t help you much, because at -300, the Patriots basically have to win out to keep you from losing money. If they go 12-4, and you bet on them to win every week at a -300 average, you will invest $300 every week and win $100 12 times, while losing $300 four times. This would allow you to break even in theory, but New England doesn’t go off at -300 each week. They might lose at -450. They might win at -600 over a lousy team. Your invested amount won’t get you the profit to buy that new pearl necklace for that special lady in your life, or that new cell phone with the 16 megapixel camera to replace that camera that is best used to start a campfire.

Until otherwise determined to be safe, we are going to limit our money line parlays to college games only. The upset tendencies this time of year tend to be more conservative than the NFL.

For the season, our “just for fun only” picks have wagered on 31 money line parlay games, all at better than even money odds. We have won 10 of the 31 at an average of $283.25 (on $100 wagered) and lost the other 21 ($-100). This brings us a return of $-130 for the season, which is still a negative 4% return on investment. For what it’s worth, the college selections are responsible for 80% of the winnings, and those picks alone have a positive return on investment, which is why we are going only with college picks this week.

We are going to issue just three selections this week. All three are very long shots such that winning just any one of these three games will make our week an imaginary profitable one. One of the parlays combines two underdogs that we believe can win outright and return an incredible 6+ times what we are pretending to invest.

Look carefully at all three parlays. There is a reason they call them “long shots.” Chances are high that all three will lose, so be forewarned all you reading this with a URL from Las Vegas as well as all you that have figured out which two online books you can find to plug the numbers into a calculator and discover which book we used for each parlay. Remember this: just since we started this feature 15 minutes ago, three of the games that make up the parlays have changed the money line odds.

This Week’s Games

October 27-31,2016
1. College Parlay @ +295
Temple over Cincinnati
Indiana over Maryland
Memphis over Tulsa
Central Michigan over Kent St.
N. C. St. over Boston College
 
2. College Parlay @ +324
Toledo over Ohio
Wake Forest over Army
Southern Miss. over Marshall
Florida over Georgia
Tennessee over South Carolina
Penn St. over Purdue
Washington St. over Oregon St.
 
3. College Parlay @ +607
North Texas over UTSA
Kentucky over Missouri

 

 

March 27, 2014

PiRate Ratings Sweet 16 Preview for Friday, March 28, 2014

Here are the matchups for Friday’s Sweet 16 games with our criteria comparisons. Remember, the criteria spread is not the predicted spread for each game. We have commenced with adding a predicted score from the interpretation of the criteria spread.

The four games on Friday constitute the best four Sweet 16 games in one night in several years. We believe all four games are close to tossups, which means the TV viewer should have one fantastic night of entertainment.

Sweet 16 Friday Schedule

7:15 PM EDT on CBS
Midwest Region—Michigan vs. Tennessee
Take your pick. Michigan has slight edges in field goal margin and turnover margin, but Tennessee has a decided edge on the glass. The strength of schedule makes the Wolverines an ever so slight favorite

PiRate Criteria: Michigan by less than 1    Predicted Score: Michigan 72  Tennessee 70

7:27 PM EDT on TBS
East Region—Connecticut vs. Iowa St.
The teams are dead even in shooting margin. Neither can rebound the ball all that well, so this is a push as well. Turnover margin is no different, and the R+T ratings are exceptionally low for Sweet 16 teams. Rarely does a team with a low R+T make the Elite 8, but one must this year, and it will be the winner of this game.

PiRate Criteria: Iowa St. by less than 1   Predicted Score: Iowa St. 67  Connecticut 66

Approx. 9:45 PM EDT on CBS
Midwest Region—Louisville vs. Kentucky
Louisville has the best field goal margin ratings of any team remaining in the tournament, while Kentucky ranks near the bottom of Sweet 16 teams. The Wildcats are without a doubt the best rebounding team left in the tournament, but Louisville has the best turnover margin in the remaining field. Kentucky has considerably better R+T and schedule strength, which brings us back to square one—almost.

PiRate Criteria: Louisville by 1 Predicted Score: Louisville 74  Kentucky 71

Approx. 9:57 PM EDT on TBS
East Region—Virginia vs. Michigan St.
When you think of a Tom Izzo team, rebounding prowess immediately comes to mind. However, in this game, Virginia actually holds a slight edge. Michigan St., never the finesse team, actually has better shooting margin ratings than the Cavaliers. This game will be decided in the turnover margin, and UVA has the slight edge there.

PiRate Criteria: Virginia by 1 Predicted Score: Virginia 58  Michigan St. 56

PiRate Ratings–Sweet 16 Preview for Thursday, March 27, 2014

Here are the matchups for Thursday’s Sweet 16 games with our criteria comparisons. Remember, the criteria spread is not the predicted spread for each game. We have commenced with adding a predicted score from the interpretation of the criteria spread.
Sweet 16 Thursday Schedule

7:15 PM EDT on CBS
South Region—Stanford vs. Dayton

Stanford will have a decided advantage on the boards, while almost all other criteria are about equal. Look for a close game, but the Cardinal will take advantage of a few extra opportunities in second chance points to pull it out in the end.

PiRate Criteria: Stanford by 1 Predicted Score: Stanford 72 Dayton 68

7:47 PM EDT on TBS
West Region—Wisconsin vs. Baylor

Baylor has the rebounding advantage, but Wisconsin has the turnover margin advantage. Shooting is about equal, but Wisconsin’s range of shooting is a little better. Baylor has the R+T advantage, so this game is a real tossup. The criteria score shows it to be a possible overtime game.

PiRate Criteria: Wisconsin by less than 1 Predicted Score: Wisconsin 64 Baylor 63

Approx. 9:30 PM EDT on CBS
South Region—Florida vs. U C L A

Florida has slightly superior numbers in shooting, defense, and rebounding, while UCLA has a little turnover margin advantage. The Gators have the R+T advantage as well, and this game looks to be the biggest mismatch of the night, even though it may not show that in the final score.

PiRate Criteria: Florida by 4 Predicted Score: Florida 69 UCLA 58

Approx. 10:17 PM EDT on TBS
West Region—Arizona vs. San Diego St.

This is an excellent contrast game. Arizona is a lot more physical, but San Diego St. is quite a bit quicker. If the game becomes a volleyball match inside, the Wildcats will be too strong for the Aztecs; but, if the game becomes a quicker-pace, running game, SDSU has the talent to actually run Arizona off the floor. The criteria tilt in favor of the number one seed advancing, and we will go with Arizona as the individual game pick tonight, but remember that we actually selected San Diego St. to be the surprise Final Four team in our original bracket selection.

PiRate Criteria: Arizona by 2 Predicted Score: Arizona 75 San Diego St. 70

March 23, 2014

PiRate Ratings–College Basketball Report for Sunday, March 23, 2014

Record in Round 3 Saturday: 6-2  Total for Tournament: 33-7

 

The PiRate Criteria correctly picked 6 of 8 games on Saturday, bringing the total for the tournament to 33-7 for 82.5% accuracy.

 

Here are the matchups for Sunday’s Round 3 games with our criteria comparisons.  Remember, the criteria spread is not the predicted spread for each game.  We have commenced with adding a predicted score from the interpretation of the criteria spread.

 

 

Round 3 Schedule

Time

Region

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

Network

12:15 PM

South

2

Kansas

10

Stanford

CBS

2:45 PM

Midwest

1

Wichita St.

8

Kentucky

CBS

5:15 PM

East

3

Iowa St.

6

North Carolina

CBS

6:10 PM

Midwest

11

Tennessee

14

Mercer

TNT

7:10 PM

South

4

U C L A

12

Stephen F. Austin

TBS

7:40 PM

West

3

Creighton

6

Baylor

truTV

8:40 PM

East

1

Virginia

8

Memphis

TNT

9:40 PM

West

1

Arizona

8

Gonzaga

TBS

 

 

Kansas vs. Stanford

Even without Joel Embiid, Kansas still holds an advantage on the glass and a large R+T advantage that will give the Jayhawks extra scoring chances.  KU moves to the Sweet 16.

 

PiRate Criteria: Kansas by 5                       Prediction: Kansas 74  Stanford 63

 

Wichita St. vs. Kentucky

It looks like this is the game where Wichita St. has met its match.  Kentucky holds a big advantage on the boards, and a decent advantage in schedule strength.  Wichita State has the shooting and defense advantage, while the turnover edge is minimal to the Shockers.  The key is Kentucky’s superior strength of schedule, enough to give the edge to the Wildcats.

 

PiRate Criteria: Kentucky by 2                   Prediction: Kentucky 62  Wichita St. 58

 

Iowa St. vs. North Carolina

Iowa St. must have an above-average shooting day to have a chance to move on.  North Carolina’s rebounding and R+T advantage is prohibitive, and the Tar Heels are not a bad shooting team.

 

PiRate Criteria: N. Carolina by 1                Predication: North Carolina 77  Iowa St. 74

 

Tennessee vs. Mercer

Two hot teams should make for a great contest.  Mercer is the better shooting team, but not by a lot.  Tennessee has a tiny defensive advantage.  All other statistical data is about equal, except that Tennessee has a much tougher strength of schedule, which is enough to tilt the game in their favor.

 

PiRate Criteria: Tennessee by 3                  Prediction: Tennessee 64  Mercer 57

 

UCLA vs. Stephen F. Austin

This is probably the most interesting game of Sunday.  SFA is no pushover, and the Lumberjacks proved it by defeating VCU.  UCLA has enough talent to make it to the Final Four, but whether the Bruins can remain consistent enough to do so is a question.  Most of the criteria data swing in SFA’s favor, but UCLA has a much better strength of schedule.  All told, the game should be very close, at least for 35 minutes.

 

PiRate Criteria: UCLA by 3                        Prediction: UCLA 66  Stephen F. Austin 59

 

Creighton vs. Baylor

Creighton is the best shooting team remaining in the tournament, but the Blue Jays R+T rating is typical of a team that does not make it to the Sweet 16.  Baylor has a considerable rebounding edge, but the Bears have liabilities in the turnover criteria, enough so that they are our underdog.

 

PiRate Criteria: Creighton by 2                  Prediction: Creighton 76  Baylor 71

 

Virginia vs. Memphis

Virginia is subtly really good with excellent criteria scores in every respect.  Memphis has good criteria scores in every respect, and the Tigers have a decent strength of schedule, just not enough to overcome the Cavaliers’ superiority across the board.

 

PiRate Criteria: Virginia by 4                      Prediction: Virginia 65  Memphis 55

 

Arizona vs. Gonzaga

The Wildcats should take care of business and guarantee that all four top-seeds move on to the Sweet 16.  Gonzaga has a minor advantage in field goal margin, while Arizona has considerable advantage on the boards and decent advantage in turnover margin with a better strength of schedule.

 

PiRate Criteria: Arizona by 3                      Prediction: Arizona 62  Gonzaga 56

March 22, 2014

PiRate Ratings 2014 NCAA Tournament–Round Three Preview

Record in Round 2: 26-6 (81.3%)   Total for Tournament: 26-6 (81.3%)

 

The PiRate Criteria held up quite well in the opening two rounds.  In our preliminary comments Monday, we mentioned six major conference teams that our criteria said were vulnerable to first game exits.  Of those six (Arizona St., Connecticut, Nebraska, North Carolina St., Ohio St., and Oklahoma St.), five lost, with only UConn advancing.  We gave you five double-digit seeds that we thought could pull upsets in their first game (Harvard, Mercer, North Carolina Central, North Dakota St., and Stephen F. Austin), and four of those teams beat their favored opponent.

 

Here are the matchups for Saturday’s Round 3 games with our criteria comparisons.  Remember, the criteria spread is not the predicted spread for each game.  We have commenced with adding a predicted score from the interpretation of the criteria spread.

 

Look for Sunday’s games to post here some time Saturday evening.

 

Round 3 Schedule

Time

Region

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

Network

12:15 PM

South

1

Florida

9

Pittsburgh

CBS

2:45 PM

Midwest

4

Louisville

5

Saint Louis

CBS

5:15 PM

Midwest

2

Michigan

7

Texas

CBS

6:10 PM

West

4

San Diego St.

12

North Dakota St.

TNT

7:10 PM

South

3

Syracuse

11

Dayton

TBS

7:45 PM

West

2

Wisconsin

7

Oregon

CBS

8:40 PM

East

4

Michigan St.

12

Harvard

TNT

9:40 PM

East

2

Villanova

7

Connecticut

TBS

 

 

Florida vs. Pittsburgh

This should be much closer than people might expect.  Florida has the advantage in shooting, but Pitt has the advantage on the boards.  The Gators have a slight edge in turnover margin, but Pitt has the R+T advantage.

 

PiRate Criteria: Florida by 1                       Prediction: Florida 66  Pittsburgh 62

 

Louisville vs. Saint Louis

Louisville has the advantages on all fronts—shooting, rebounding, turnover margin, and the all-important R+T advantage.  The Billikens’ only chance in this game is to control the tempo and take smart shots, hoping to catch UL on a cold-shooting afternoon.

 

PiRate Criteria: Louisville by 8                   Prediction: Louisville 71  Saint Louis 57

 

Michigan vs. Texas

Michigan has a considerable shooting advantage, but Texas should capitalize on numerous extra scoring opportunities thanks to a superior R+T advantage.  This one will provide the viewer with an extreme contrast where the finesse team plays the power team.

 

PiRate Criteria: Michigan by 2                    Predication: Michigan 72  Texas 68

 

San Diego St. vs. North Dakota St.

North Dakota St. is the best shooting team in the tournament, but San Diego St. is one of the top defensive teams in the Dance.  The Aztecs’ biggest assets are their ability to force opponents into turnovers and into taking poor shots.

 

PiRate Criteria: San Diego St. by 3             Prediction: San Diego St. 78  North Dakota St. 71

 

Syracuse vs. Dayton

Syracuse could have a bad shooting night, but the Orange should still prevail.  Their major advantage on the glass combined with Dayton’s propensity to get sloppy handling the ball at times, should be the difference inthis game.

 

PiRate Criteria: Syracuse by 2                    Prediction: Syracuse 64  Dayton 58

 

Wisconsin vs. Oregon

This game is the closest of the Saturday games according to PiRate Criteria.  Shooting ability is even; rebounding is as well.  Oregon’s defense is better at forcing turnovers, but Wisconsin is one of the best at not turning the ball over.  A slight advantage in schedule strength tilts this game to the Badgers.

 

PiRate Criteria: Wisconsin by less than 1   Prediction: Wisconsin 68  Oregon 67

 

Michigan St. vs. Harvard

Michigan St. has small advantages across the board thanks to a much more difficult schedule.  Harvard could keep it close for some time, but the Spartans will eventually pull away to a comfortable margin.

 

PiRate Criteria: Michigan St. by 6              Prediction: Michigan St. 74  Harvard 62

 

Villanova vs. Connecticut

Connecticut has a negative R+T rating, and we cannot select any negative R+T team to win after the round of 64.  Villanova should neutralize UConn’s rebounding strength in the middle.

 

PiRate Criteria: Villanova by 4                   Prediction: Villanova 74  Connecticut 64

March 17, 2014

PiRate Ratings NCAA Tournament Preview–Opening and Second Rounds

Welcome back to the PiRate Ratings’ March Madness Bracketnomics Edition.

 

We coined the term “Bracketnomics,” several years ago to refer to the analytic way of looking at picking teams in your brackets.  While we have never come close to picking every game correctly, we have had a lot of success picking the national champion and Final Four participants.

 

What do we look for when we pick our winners?  It is easier to tell you what we do not pick.  Many of you may be familiar or not at all familiar with something called “The Four Factors.”  This is a very accurate predictor of NBA Games both in the regular season and in the playoffs.  It works to a point in the NCAA regular season.  However, it has many drawbacks in the NCAA Tournament.

 

For various reasons, the NCAA Tournament is an entirely different type of game compared to the regular season.  First and foremost, all teams are playing on foreign hardwood.  Sure, some teams have an advantage of mileage over others, but the gymnasium they will play in leads to no real home court advantage.  If Kentucky has 10,000 fans screaming, “Go Big Blue!” at a crucial point in the second half, this might fire up the team for a possession or two, but the Rupp Arena floor means a lot more to the Wildcats than the cheer that they receive in every road game with all their thousands of followers.  The playing floor, backboards, rims, and sightlines are much more valuable to the home team than the screaming fans.

 

The timeouts in the games are longer than normal timeouts, so substitution patterns are different, even if teams stick to the regular format.  If a team sends in its top two subs at the 13-minute mark of the first half and then plays these subs for six minutes, the two starters will be out at least two minutes longer in actual time and may possible need more time getting their heads back into the game.  Just two extra minutes of rest can cause different reactions, both positive and negative.

 

The obvious difference in the NCAA Tournament games are the elimination fear.  Because the players know the next loss is the last game of the season, and in some cases the last of their career, nerves play a much bigger factor in these games.  It is different in the NBA Playoffs where one loss does not end a season.

 

We could go on and one, but by now you should realize the differences as well.  Thus, the so-called “Four Factors” do not fit into the standard box.  We must come up with Big Dance Steps, or the factors that give us an insight into picking winners.

 

Over the years, we have isolated statistical tendencies that have helped us select winners in the NCAA Tournament.  We have looked at statistics of past champions and Final Four participants and have found certain similarities in these teams.

 

 

1. First and foremost, we look for teams that played better than average schedules.  It is obvious that a team can play 20 patsies and run up some really gaudy stats.  We look for teams that played tough schedules and reward them for that, but we do not totally eliminate mid-major teams that performed excellently against a mid-major schedule.  The best team in the land may play an average schedule, but they would still be the best team.  We have a metric that factors in the SOS into an equation.

 

2. Second, we look for teams that can win away from home.  If a team goes 22-8, with a home record of 18-1 and a record away from home (away and neutral games) of 4-7, this team is not ready to win six consecutive games, or even four, away from home.

 

Once we have isolated the teams that have played an above average schedule and have enjoyed some success away from home, we look at these vital statistics:

 

3. Scoring Margin—anything that is 8 or more is important.  We really like a scoring margin at 10 or more, as all but one of the 21st Century champions have entered the Big Dance with a double digit scoring margin.  If a team has a 15-point or better scoring margin, and they satisfy the strength of schedule and road won-loss criteria, then watch out!  They are talented and have a killer attitude.

 

2. Field Goal Percentage Margin—this is a team’s offensive field goal percentage minus their defensive field goal percentage times 100.  The key here is a margin of +7.5% or better.

 

3. Rebounding Margin—a team with a rebounding margin of 5.0 or more has a chance to overcome a bad shooting game or a turnover-prone game.  We use a metric that factors the type of rebounds, as an offensive rebound leads to more potential points in a possession than a defensive rebound.  Many offensive rebounds become put-back baskets.

 

4. Turnover Margin—similar to rebounding margin, but we have a weighted scale here.  If a team out-rebounds its opponents by 3.0 or more, then any positive turnover margin is sufficient.  If a team out-rebounds its opponents by 0.1 to 2.9, then a turnover margin of 3.0 or better is required.  And, if a team does not out-rebound its opponents, they must have a turnover margin of 5.0 or more.

 

5. Average Steals Per Game—if the rebound is gold, the steal is platinum.  We consider a steal to be worth more than a defensive rebound.  When a team steals the ball, chances are highest for a fast break score.   Any team that averages 7.5 or more steals per game will have several cheap basket opportunities.  Any team with double digit steals per game will be monsters in the tournament, if they can hold their own on the boards.

 

6. The PiRate R+T Rating—if rebound margin is gold, and steals are platinum, then our R+T rating is rhodium.  This rating combines rebounding margin, turnover margin, and steals per game into one sabermetric-type rating, similar to any of several baseball ratings (like Wins Above Replacement).  The current formula uses an advanced formula, but you don’t have to bother with trying to figure these out for all 68 teams.  We have done that for you.  What we isolate are the teams with an R+T rating of 5.0 or better, paying extra attention to 10.0 or better.  If a team has a negative R+T rating, they are going home quickly even if they are a number 3 seed playing a number 14 seed, which is exactly what happened in 2010, when Georgetown had a negative R+T rating and not only was upset by Ohio U in the opening round, they were blown out of the gym.

 

The 2014 Field of 68

1. Which teams qualify on all of our stat requirements?

 

For the second consecutive season, none of the 68 teams qualify on all the statistical requirements that we look for in a clear cut national champion.  A couple teams came close this year.  Actually, the most perfect fits this year are a handful of mid-major and low-major teams missing in the all important strength of schedule criteria.  What does this tell us?  This could be another year where a team like George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth, Butler, and Wichita St. crashes the party at the Final Four.  Butler came within a couple inches of beating Duke for the title not too many years ago.  Could a Cinderella break through and win it all this year?  We are not calling for it, but it would be no big surprise this year, because there are not many teams with the quality of past Final Four participants.

 

 

2. Which major conference teams appear vulnerable based negative R+T ratings?

 

This is another reason why some smaller teams may have better chances this year.  A record six major conference teams possess negative R+T ratings this year.  These six are very ripe for upset losses early in the tournament.  Keep an eye on: Arizona St., Connecticut, Nebraska, North Carolina St., Ohio St., and Oklahoma St.  Of these six, Oklahoma St. and Arizona St. have abnormally negative R+T numbers, both at -4.5.  Basically, their opponents are getting about 4 ½ extra opportunities to score points in high percentage situations.  In the Big Dance, that is usually lethal.

 

 

4. Which less famous teams have criteria that shows they could upset a single-digit seed in the second round?

 

As we have said already, there are many smaller teams capable of winning a second round game and some capable of getting to the Sweet 16.  It depends on your definition of smaller team to decide if you might go with one of these teams to make the Elite 8 and Final Four.  Is Wichita St. a smaller team?  They are undefeated and ranked number two as a #1-seed.  How about Gonzaga?  They have been among the chosen “Few” for so long, can we really consider their winning tournament games a surprise?

 

Of the teams we really consider to be sleeper teams, keep an eye out on these six teams:

Harvard, Mercer, New Mexico St., North Carolina-Central, North Dakota St., and Stephen F. Austin.  These half-dozen teams have the talent to get hot and knock off a favored opponent.  If their schedules were just a tad tougher, we might even select one of these six to sneak past the Sweet 16 into the Elite 8.

 

 

6. So, who do we pick for the National Champion?

We have been playing with this decision all day.  One team has the look of a National Champion more than any of the other 67, but their strength of schedule bothers us a little this year, unlike last year.

 

However, we are going to go with this team, because their statistical criteria is the closest thing to a perfect fit without being a perfect fit.

 

And that team is: LOUISVILLE!  Yes, we are going with the Cardinals to repeat.  The Midwest Region is ridiculously strong this year.  So many pundits believe this was done to get rid of Wichita St., before the Shockers can get to Arlington in April.  We see no roadblocks in UL’s march to the Sweet 16.  Neither Manhattan, St. Louis, NC St.,  or Xavier have the abilities to stop the Cards.

 

The Sweet 16 game could be the toughest one Rick Pitino’s troops must conquer, as they will most likely play Wichita St. or Kentucky.  I would guess UL would rather play UK than a WSU team looking for revenge from last year’s Final Four semifinal.  The other side of the Midwest bracket should provide little resistance for the Cards.  Michigan and Duke have glaring weaknesses the Cardinals can exploit.

 

Who else looks like Final Four participants to us?  Read on.

 

 

NCAA Tournament Schedule for Opening and Second Rounds

Time

Region

Seed

Team

Seed

Team

Network

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

6:40 PM

South

16

Albany

16

Mount St. Mary’s

truTV

9:10 PM

Midwest

12

North Carolina St.

12

Xavier

truTV

 

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

6:40 PM

Midwest

16

Cal Poly

16

Texas Southern

truTV

9:10 PM

Midwest

11

Iowa

11

Tennessee

truTV

 

Thursday, March 20, 2014

12:15 PM

South

6

Ohio St.

11

Dayton

CBS

12:40 PM

West

2

Wisconsin

15

American

truTV

1:40 PM

South

8

Colorado

9

Pittsburgh

TBS

2:10 PM

East

5

Cincinnati

12

Harvard

TNT

2:45 PM

South

3

Syracuse

14

Western Michigan

CBS

3:10 PM

West

7

Oregon

10

B Y U

truTV

4:10 PM

South

1

Florida

16

Albany/Mount St. Mary’s

TBS

4:40 PM

East

4

Michigan St.

13

Delaware

TNT

6:55 PM

East

7

Connecticut

10

St. Joseph’s

TBS

7:10 PM

Midwest

2

Michigan

15

Wofford

CBS

7:20 PM

Midwest

5

Saint Louis

12

North Carolina St./Xavier

TNT

7:27 PM

West

5

Oklahoma

12

North Dakota St.

truTV

9:25 PM

East

3

Villanova

14

Milwaukee

TBS

9:40 PM

Midwest

7

Texas

10

Arizona St.

CBS

9:50 PM

Midwest

4

Louisville

13

Manhattan

TNT

9:57 PM

West

4

San Diego St.

13

New Mexico St.

truTV

 

Friday, March 21, 2014

12:15 PM

Midwest

3

Duke

14

Mercer

CBS

12:40 PM

West

6

Baylor

11

Nebraska

truTV

1:40 PM

South

7

New Mexico

10

Stanford

TBS

2:10 PM

West

1

Arizona

16

Weber St.

TNT

2:45 PM

Midwest

6

Massachusetts

11

Iowa/Tennessee

CBS

3:10 PM

West

3

Creighton

14

UL-Lafayette

truTV

4:10 PM

South

2

Kansas

15

Eastern Kentucky

TBS

4:40 PM

West

8

Gonzaga

9

Oklahoma St.

TNT

6:55 PM

East

8

Memphis

9

George Washington

TBS

7:10 PM

Midwest

1

Wichita St.

16

Cal Poly/Texas Southern

CBS

7:20 PM

East

6

North Carolina

11

Providence

TNT

7:27 PM

South

5

V C U

12

Stephen F. Austin

truTV

9:25 PM

East

1

Virginia

16

Coastal Carolina

TBS

9:40 PM

Midwest

8

Kentucky

9

Kansas St.

CBS

9:50 PM

East

3

Iowa St.

14

North Carolina-Central

TNT

9:57 PM

South

4

U C L A

13

Tulsa

truTV

 

Here are our picks for the first two rounds.  Of course, we will update the ratings and pick anew after round two with picks for Saturday on Friday night and picks for Sunday on Saturday night.

 

The spreads given here are devised from our PiRate Scores using our analytic formula that combines all our statistical criteria into a number.  The bigger the spread between the two teams, the more certain we are about the winner of a game.

 

***** These are not point spread predictions *****

They are criteria spread differences.  A difference of 1-3 represents a probable single-digit victory.  Be weary of a spread of just one point, as this is close to a tossup game.  A spread difference of 4 to 6 is on par with a 10-15 point victory.  A spread difference of 7 to 9 indicates a 15-22 point victory, and a spread difference of 10 or more indicates a blowout is possible.

 

Opening Round ( @ Dayton)

Albany  over  Mount St. Mary’s  by 4

Xavier  over  North Carolina St. by 3

Cal Poly over Texas Southern by 2

Tennessee over Iowa by 3

 

Second Round

 

East Region

Virginia over Coastal Carolina by 10

Memphis over George Washington by 1

Harvard over Cincinnati by less than 1

Michigan St. over Delaware by 7

North Carolina over Providence by 7

North Carolina Central over Iowa St. by 1 (Upset)

Connecticut over St. Joseph’s by 2

Villanova over Milwaukee by 11

 

South Region

Florida over Albany by 13

Pittsburgh over Colorado by 1

Virginia Commonwealth over Stephen F. Austin by 1

U C L A over Tulsa by 1

Ohio St. over Dayton by 3

Syracuse over Western Michigan by 2 (could be much closer than expected)

New Mexico over Stanford by 5

Kansas over Eastern Kentucky by 12

 

Midwest Region

Wichita St. over Cal Poly by 13

Kentucky over Kansas St. by 9

Saint Louis over Xavier by 2

Louisville over Manhattan by 9

Tennessee over Massachusetts by 3

Duke over Mercer by 2 (Could be similar to Duke-Belmont from the past)

Texas over Arizona St. by less than 1 (almost dead even)

Michigan over Wofford by 3

 

West Region

Arizona over Weber St. by 7

Gonzaga over Oklahoma St. by 3

North Dakota St. over Oklahoma by 3 (Upset)

San Diego St. over New Mexico St. by less than 1 (close to even)

Baylor over Nebraska by 6

Creighton over UL-Lafayette by 5

B Y U over Oregon by 2 (maybe the most exciting 2nd round game)

Wisconsin over American by 8

 

For those that are filling out the entire bracket, here are our picks as of tonight

 

Advancing to the Sweet 16

Virginia

Michigan St.

North Carolina

Villanova

Florida

U C L A

Syracuse

Kansas

Wichita St.

Louisville

Duke

Texas

Arizona

San Diego St.

Baylor

Wisconsin

 

The Elite 8

Michigan St.

Villanova

Florida

Syracuse

Louisville

Duke

San Diego St.

Wisconsin

 

The Final 4

Michigan St.

Florida

Louisville

San Diego St. (our sleeper Final Four team)

 

Championship Game

Michigan St.

Louisville

 

Champion

Louisville

November 19, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–November 19-23, 2013

Many Interesting Possible Trap Games This Week

As the season rounds the backstretch and heads for the wire, this week starts the trend of multiple trap games due to many factors.

 

Many teams have experienced a disappointment by not meeting expectations, yet they are bowl-eligible.  A team that is a disappointing 6-4 or 7-3 at this point will not get up to play its best.

 

As a counter to that, there are some teams that have stayed mathematically alive for bowl eligibility, when they were not expected to challenge for a .500 record.  Improving teams that are 4-6, 4-5, or 5-5 can be very dangerous, knowing that they can still get into a bowl.

 

Many teams enjoy an off week before a vital or rivalry game, while their opponent had to play the previous week.  Watch out for those teams coming off byes.  Any decent FBS coaching staff can discover and adjust a lot more when given an extra five to seven days to prepare.  Add rest to the banged up players, and this team plays its best games in this situation.

 

There is another factor.  Some teams began the year needing some added experience to reach their peak, and they are reaching their peak about now.  Other teams began with loads of experience and peaked in September.  They are sliding now, ripe for an upset loss.

 

Let’s take a look at some of the possibilities this week.

 

Northern Illinois at Toledo: Toledo qualifies as one of those teams that is peaking at the right time.  The Rockets have the talent and teamwork to end the Huskies’ BCS Bowl chances.  Look for an exciting, high scoring game, and Toledo has a 50-50 chance of pulling off the upset.

 

Navy at San Jose St: Navy is bowl eligible at 6-4; the Midshipmen are going to the Armed Forces Bowl regardless of the outcome of this game.  They are already looking forward to the Army game.  San Jose St. is 5-5 and needs one win in the last two to become bowl-eligible.  The other game is against Fresno St., so the Spartan players probably realize this is the game they must win.  Expect SJSU to bring their A-game, while Navy does not function on all cylinders.

 

USC at Colorado: On paper, this should be a major blowout.  However, Colorado is now in line for a bowl game if the Buffaloes can upset USC and win at Utah.  They would have to receive a waiver due to beating two FCS teams, but they had extenuating circumstances when they added Charleston Southern to the schedule after losing a game to the September flood in Boulder.  USC is due to bounce after the big upset win over Stanford.  While the Trojans should win, the margin could be a bunch less than expected.

 

Michigan St. at Northwestern: Northwestern was 4-0 when they took Ohio St. to the final minute of the game before losing.  The Wildcats have now lost six straight and must win their final two games to get back to a bowl.  With a weak Illinois team waiting, NU must pull off the big upset to finish 6-6.  Michigan St. can lose out and still make it to the Big Ten Championship Game.  The only way the Spartans can miss out now is to lose this game and to Minnesota, while Minnesota upsets Wisconsin.  In other words, the Spartans are already thinking about Ohio St.  Look for NU to cover the spread, and if MSU is really flat, watch out.

 

Oklahoma at Kansas St.: This game qualifies under two factors.  Oklahoma has been a disappointment and is looking forward to the rivalry game at Oklahoma St.  Kansas St. is peaking at the right time, and the Wildcats have a chance to move past the Sooners in the Big 12 standings.  KSU should be sky high for this game, while OU acts like they’d rather be taking a nap.

 

Memphis at Louisville: You might think this is a joke.  We don’t concur.  Memphis is 3-6 with games to be played against Temple and UConn.  It is reasonable to expect that the Tigers can win both games.  They need this upset win to make the final two meaningful.  Additionally, Memphis would like to show UL that this is still a fierce rivalry.  As for the Cardinals, they meet two of our qualifications.  This season is now a disappointment (they expected to go 12-0), and they peaked weeks ago.  UL is primed for one more loss before the bowls.

 

Michigan at Iowa: Michigan peaked earlier in the season, and now the Wolverines are treading water trying not to go under.  Ohio St. looms two weeks ahead.  Iowa had a week off, and the Hawkeyes are still improving.  Look for the black and gold to play with more effort than the maize and blue.

 

Wisconsin at Minnesota: Consider this one a cousin to our theories.  Wisconsin has not peaked, and this is a key rivalry game that they want to win.  The Badgers still have a shot at an at-large BCS Bowl berth.  Minnesota has even more to play for.  If they upset Wisconsin and Michigan St. loses to Northwestern, the Gophers will play Sparty for the Legends Division title the following week.  The Gophers are peaking in November, so this game should be one of the most entertaining rivalry games this year.  Paul Bunyan’s axe may stay in Madison, but we think this game will be close.

 

Utah at Washington St.: This is a tossup game to begin with, but Utah has more to play for.  The Cougars believe they can topple their arch-rival Huskies in the Apple Cup game on Black Friday, and they might be taking a peak forward.  Utah is perhaps the best 4-6 team in the nation, and the Utes must win out to go bowling.

 

Vanderbilt at Tennessee: Tennessee has three things going for it in this game.  The Volunteers were not expected to play above .500 in Butch Jones’ first year on the hill.  However, wins in this game and at Kentucky next week will send the Orange to Memphis and the Liberty Bowl.  Tennessee had a week off while Vanderbilt played a tough game against Kentucky.  Now, add the revenge factor after Vandy put the biggest embarrassment on the UT football program since the Vols lost to Chattanooga decades ago, and even though the black and gold looks to be 14-20 points more talented, we believe this game will be decided in the final minutes.

 

For The Third Time Ever

It happened in 1974 and again in 1983, and for just the third time, it happens again this weekend.  Florida St. is a 70+ point PiRate Rating favorite against Idaho.

 

We do not have the records for 1969 through 1988, but we do have our memories.  In September of 1974, Oklahoma was a 70-something point favorite over Wake Forest.  What we do remember is that the Deacons came into that game not having won in their previous 13, while Oklahoma had not lost in their previous 20.  We think the actual spread was 74 points (we did not have decimals in those days, just whole numbers).  The Sooners won that game 72-3.

 

In 1983, Nebraska played Minnesota as a 71-point favorite in our ratings.  In the early 1980’s, we actually predicted scores, and our prediction for that game was 77-6.  The actual final was 84-13, an exact 71-point margin.

 

We missed on several 70-point wins in the past.  When Houston almost hung 100 on SMU and won 95-21 back in the late 1980’s, we had the Cougars favored by 59.  We did not rate teams in 1968, but this is the weekend anniversary of Houston’s 100-6 win over Tulsa in 1968.  Florida St. could score 100 points in this game, but they will not do so.  Expect the starters to come out as early as the start of the second quarter.  The Seminoles could lead 42-0 after one quarter and 56-0 by halftime, but Jimbo Fisher will not allow his team to score 44 more points, even though FSU could score 112 points in this game (4 TDs per quarter).

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

136.5

2

Florida St.

136.2

3

Oregon

133.1

4

Baylor

130.7

5

Ohio St.

128.5

6

Stanford

126.0

7

Oklahoma St.

124.0

8

Arizona St.

124.0

9

Missouri

123.8

10

Wisconsin

123.6

11

L S U

122.6

12

Clemson

121.5

13

Texas A&M

121.5

14

Michigan St.

120.4

15

Washington

119.7

16

Ole Miss

119.3

17

U S C

119.1

18

U C L A

119.1

19

Auburn

119.1

20

South Carolina

119.1

21

Texas

115.8

22

Oklahoma

115.8

23

Oregon St.

115.4

24

Georgia

115.0

25

B Y U

114.9

26

Louisville

114.4

27

Kansas St.

114.0

28

Florida

112.4

29

Arizona

111.9

30

Michigan

111.8

31

Nebraska

111.5

32

Georgia Tech

110.8

33

Miami

110.8

34

Notre Dame

110.7

35

Utah

110.3

36

Northwestern

108.5

37

Vanderbilt

108.2

38

Mississippi St.

108.2

39

Texas Tech

107.5

40

Cincinnati

107.4

41

North Carolina

107.3

42

Virginia Tech

107.3

43

Iowa

106.8

44

Fresno St.

106.7

45

T C U

106.7

46

Central Florida

106.6

47

East Carolina

106.5

48

Minnesota

106.4

49

Duke

105.2

50

Boise St.

105.2

51

Utah St.

105.1

52

Northern Illinois

104.8

53

Penn St.

104.4

54

Bowling Green

104.4

55

Washington St.

104.0

56

Houston

102.7

57

Tennessee

102.2

58

Boston College

101.7

59

Indiana

101.7

60

Toledo

101.5

61

West Virginia

101.0

62

Marshall

100.7

63

Pittsburgh

100.4

64

Ball St.

100.0

65

North Texas

99.7

66

Buffalo

99.7

67

Syracuse

98.9

68

Rice

98.3

69

Wake Forest

98.3

70

Kentucky

98.2

71

Maryland

97.0

72

Illinois

96.9

73

Navy

96.8

74

Colorado St.

96.3

75

Arkansas

95.9

76

San Jose St.

95.8

77

S M U

95.1

78

San Diego St.

93.7

79

Kansas

93.5

80

Louisiana–Lafayette

93.3

81

Arkansas St.

93.2

82

Rutgers

93.1

83

Iowa St.

91.7

84

Florida Atlantic

91.2

85

Memphis

91.1

86

North Carolina St.

91.0

87

U T S A

90.4

88

Colorado

89.9

89

Western Kentucky

89.6

90

Temple

89.6

91

California

89.5

92

Virginia

89.1

93

Ohio

89.1

94

Middle Tennessee

88.4

95

Tulane

87.5

96

U N L V

87.2

97

South Florida

86.6

98

Purdue

86.6

99

Kent St.

86.3

100

Louisiana–Monroe

86.1

101

Nevada

85.9

102

Tulsa

85.9

103

South Alabama

85.9

104

Wyoming

85.6

105

Connecticut

83.5

106

Troy

83.2

107

Hawaii

83.0

108

Central Michigan

82.4

109

Akron

82.2

110

Texas St.

82.1

111

Army

82.0

112

New Mexico

81.3

113

Air Force

79.3

114

Louisiana Tech

78.9

115

U T E P

78.6

116

U A B

77.5

117

Western Michigan

75.6

118

Massachusetts

72.8

119

New Mexico St.

72.7

120

Eastern Michigan

71.1

121

Miami (O)

70.5

122

Idaho

68.1

123

Florida Int’l

66.1

124

Georgia St.

64.8

125

Southern Miss.

64.6

 

PiRate Mean

1

Florida St.

140.2

2

Alabama

132.7

3

Oregon

129.6

4

Ohio St.

127.5

5

Wisconsin

124.5

6

Baylor

124.2

7

Arizona St.

123.1

8

Clemson

123.0

9

Missouri

122.0

10

Michigan St.

121.0

11

L S U

120.4

12

Texas A&M

119.3

13

Stanford

119.0

14

Auburn

118.4

15

South Carolina

116.5

16

Ole Miss

116.3

17

Oklahoma St.

116.0

18

U S C

115.8

19

Washington

115.6

20

U C L A

114.5

21

B Y U

113.7

22

Louisville

113.5

23

Georgia

112.8

24

Miami

111.8

25

Michigan

111.8

26

Oklahoma

110.9

27

Georgia Tech

110.1

28

Nebraska

109.9

29

Houston

109.8

30

Central Florida

109.7

31

Florida

109.5

32

North Carolina

108.8

33

Notre Dame

108.6

34

East Carolina

108.5

35

Arizona

108.3

36

Virginia Tech

108.1

37

Utah

108.1

38

Oregon St.

108.0

39

Cincinnati

107.6

40

Texas

107.5

41

Northern Illinois

107.4

42

Kansas St.

106.8

43

Duke

106.6

44

Minnesota

106.6

45

Vanderbilt

106.5

46

Fresno St.

106.4

47

Northwestern

106.1

48

Iowa

106.0

49

Mississippi St.

105.8

50

Bowling Green

105.3

51

Penn St.

105.0

52

Marshall

104.1

53

Toledo

103.7

54

Indiana

103.4

55

Ball St.

103.3

56

Utah St.

103.3

57

Washington St.

103.1

58

Boston College

102.8

59

Texas Tech

102.6

60

North Texas

102.4

61

Boise St.

101.9

62

Buffalo

101.8

63

Rice

101.1

64

T C U

101.1

65

Tennessee

101.1

66

Wake Forest

101.1

67

Maryland

100.2

68

Pittsburgh

99.8

69

Syracuse

98.9

70

Illinois

98.7

71

Navy

98.6

72

Arkansas

98.3

73

Kentucky

97.0

74

S M U

96.6

75

Colorado St.

96.3

76

Rutgers

95.8

77

Memphis

95.8

78

Louisiana–Lafayette

95.0

79

North Carolina St.

94.4

80

West Virginia

94.2

81

San Jose St.

93.4

82

Middle Tennessee

93.2

83

San Diego St.

92.7

84

Arkansas St.

92.5

85

Ohio

92.4

86

U T S A

92.4

87

Western Kentucky

91.9

88

Florida Atlantic

91.7

89

Temple

91.2

90

Tulane

90.9

91

Virginia

90.8

92

Colorado

90.2

93

Kansas

89.2

94

Kent St.

89.1

95

U N L V

88.8

96

South Alabama

88.7

97

Nevada

87.5

98

Army

87.5

99

Louisiana–Monroe

86.9

100

Wyoming

86.7

101

Texas St.

86.6

102

Akron

85.9

103

Troy

85.8

104

California

85.7

105

Tulsa

85.2

106

New Mexico

85.0

107

Central Michigan

84.7

108

Purdue

84.3

109

South Florida

84.0

110

Iowa St.

83.7

111

Hawaii

83.2

112

Air Force

82.7

113

Louisiana Tech

81.0

114

U T E P

80.7

115

Connecticut

80.0

116

U A B

78.4

117

Massachusetts

77.8

118

Western Michigan

77.5

119

New Mexico St.

75.8

120

Eastern Michigan

73.7

121

Miami (O)

73.5

122

Idaho

72.0

123

Georgia St.

70.5

124

Florida Int’l

68.1

125

Southern Miss.

64.6

 

PiRate Bias

1

Florida St.

138.1

2

Alabama

137.2

3

Oregon

133.7

4

Baylor

132.8

5

Ohio St.

128.7

6

Stanford

125.4

7

Wisconsin

124.8

8

Oklahoma St.

124.3

9

Arizona St.

123.6

10

Missouri

123.2

11

L S U

123.1

12

Clemson

123.0

13

Texas A&M

121.3

14

Michigan St.

120.0

15

Auburn

119.2

16

U S C

119.1

17

Washington

119.1

18

Ole Miss

118.6

19

U C L A

118.1

20

South Carolina

118.0

21

B Y U

115.9

22

Oklahoma

115.3

23

Louisville

114.9

24

Georgia

114.5

25

Texas

114.4

26

Oregon St.

113.7

27

Kansas St.

113.2

28

Florida

111.2

29

Miami

110.8

30

Michigan

110.8

31

Georgia Tech

110.5

32

Utah

110.4

33

Nebraska

110.3

34

Arizona

110.1

35

Notre Dame

109.0

36

Mississippi St.

108.6

37

North Carolina

108.4

38

Northwestern

108.3

39

Vanderbilt

108.0

40

Central Florida

107.7

41

East Carolina

107.3

42

Cincinnati

107.2

43

Iowa

107.1

44

Virginia Tech

106.9

45

Texas Tech

106.7

46

Boise St.

106.6

47

Utah St.

106.6

48

Minnesota

106.4

49

Fresno St.

106.3

50

T C U

106.2

51

Northern Illinois

105.8

52

Bowling Green

105.2

53

Duke

104.8

54

Washington St.

104.8

55

Houston

104.3

56

Penn St.

103.3

57

Boston College

102.9

58

Toledo

102.7

59

Marshall

102.1

60

Indiana

101.2

61

Buffalo

101.1

62

Tennessee

101.1

63

North Texas

100.9

64

Ball St.

100.8

65

Pittsburgh

100.3

66

West Virginia

100.0

67

Rice

99.0

68

Wake Forest

98.8

69

Syracuse

98.4

70

Kentucky

98.4

71

Maryland

98.2

72

Navy

97.2

73

Colorado St.

97.2

74

Illinois

96.4

75

San Jose St.

96.2

76

Arkansas

94.7

77

S M U

94.6

78

San Diego St.

94.2

79

Louisiana–Lafayette

93.6

80

Arkansas St.

93.3

81

Kansas

93.1

82

Rutgers

93.0

83

Florida Atlantic

92.3

84

Memphis

91.8

85

North Carolina St.

91.4

86

Iowa St.

90.3

87

U T S A

90.2

88

Western Kentucky

89.7

89

Middle Tennessee

89.4

90

Ohio

89.4

91

Temple

89.4

92

Virginia

89.1

93

Colorado

88.4

94

Tulane

87.9

95

U N L V

87.8

96

California

87.5

97

Kent St.

86.5

98

Wyoming

86.3

99

South Alabama

86.3

100

Louisiana–Monroe

86.1

101

South Florida

86.1

102

Nevada

85.9

103

Tulsa

84.8

104

Troy

84.2

105

Purdue

84.1

106

Hawaii

83.6

107

Army

83.4

108

Connecticut

82.9

109

Akron

82.6

110

Texas St.

82.3

111

Central Michigan

82.0

112

New Mexico

81.9

113

Air Force

79.1

114

Louisiana Tech

78.2

115

U T E P

78.0

116

U A B

76.4

117

Western Michigan

75.5

118

Massachusetts

72.9

119

New Mexico St.

72.6

120

Eastern Michigan

70.0

121

Miami (O)

69.1

122

Idaho

67.9

123

Georgia St.

66.1

124

Florida Int’l

65.5

125

Southern Miss.

63.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

5-1

9-1

114.4

113.5

114.9

Cincinnati

5-1

8-2

107.4

107.6

107.2

Central Florida

5-0

8-1

106.6

109.7

107.7

Houston

4-2

7-3

102.7

109.8

104.3

S M U

3-2

4-5

95.1

96.6

94.6

Rutgers

2-3

5-4

93.1

95.8

93.0

Memphis

1-4

3-6

91.1

95.8

91.8

Temple

0-6

1-9

89.6

91.2

89.4

South Florida

2-3

2-7

86.6

84.0

86.1

Connecticut

0-5

0-9

83.5

80.0

82.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

97.0

98.4

97.2

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

8-0

10-0

136.2

140.2

138.1

Clemson

7-1

9-1

121.5

123.0

123.0

Boston College

3-3

6-4

101.7

102.8

102.9

Syracuse

3-3

5-5

98.9

98.9

98.4

Wake Forest

2-5

4-6

98.3

101.1

98.8

Maryland

2-4

6-4

97.0

100.2

98.2

North Carolina St.

0-7

3-7

91.0

94.4

91.4

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Tech

5-3

6-4

110.8

110.1

110.5

Miami

3-3

7-3

110.8

111.8

110.8

North Carolina

4-3

5-5

107.3

108.8

108.4

Virginia Tech

4-3

7-4

107.3

108.1

106.9

Duke

4-2

8-2

105.2

106.6

104.8

Pittsburgh

2-4

5-5

100.4

99.8

100.3

Virginia

0-6

2-8

89.1

90.8

89.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.4

106.9

105.8

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baylor

6-0

9-0

130.7

124.2

132.8

Oklahoma St.

6-1

9-1

124.0

116.0

124.3

Texas

6-1

7-3

115.8

107.5

114.4

Oklahoma

5-2

8-2

115.8

110.9

115.3

Kansas St.

4-3

6-4

114.0

106.8

113.2

Texas Tech

4-4

7-4

107.5

102.6

106.7

T C U

2-6

4-7

106.7

101.1

106.2

West Virginia

2-6

4-7

101.0

94.2

100.0

Kansas

1-6

3-7

93.5

89.2

93.1

Iowa St.

0-7

1-9

91.7

83.7

90.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.1

103.6

109.6

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

6-0

10-0

128.5

127.5

128.7

Wisconsin

5-1

8-2

123.6

124.5

124.8

Penn St.

3-3

6-4

104.4

105.0

103.3

Indiana

2-4

4-6

101.7

103.4

101.2

Illinois

0-6

3-7

96.9

98.7

96.4

Purdue

0-6

1-9

86.6

84.3

84.1

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

6-0

9-1

120.4

121.0

120.0

Michigan

3-3

7-3

111.8

111.8

110.8

Nebraska

4-2

7-3

111.5

109.9

110.3

Northwestern

0-6

4-6

108.5

106.1

108.3

Iowa

3-3

6-4

106.8

106.0

107.1

Minnesota

4-2

8-2

106.4

106.6

106.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

108.9

108.7

108.5

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

6-1

8-2

106.5

108.5

107.3

Marshall

5-1

7-3

100.7

104.1

102.1

Florida Atlantic

3-4

4-6

91.2

91.7

92.3

Middle Tennessee

4-2

6-4

88.4

93.2

89.4

U A B

1-5

2-8

77.5

78.4

76.4

Florida Int’l

1-5

1-9

66.1

68.1

65.5

Southern Miss.

0-6

0-10

64.6

64.6

63.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

North Texas

5-1

7-3

99.7

102.4

100.9

Rice

5-1

7-3

98.3

101.1

99.0

U T S A

4-2

5-5

90.4

92.4

90.2

Tulane

4-2

6-4

87.5

90.9

87.9

Tulsa

1-5

2-8

85.9

85.2

84.8

Louisiana Tech

3-3

4-6

78.9

81.0

78.2

U T E P

1-5

2-8

78.6

80.7

78.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

86.7

88.7

86.8

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

B Y U

 

7-3

114.9

113.7

115.9

Notre Dame

 

7-3

110.7

108.6

109.0

Navy

 

6-4

96.8

98.6

97.2

Army

 

3-7

82.0

87.5

83.4

Idaho

 

1-9

68.1

72.0

67.9

New Mexico St.

 

1-9

72.7

75.8

72.6

     

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.9

92.7

91.0

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

5-1

7-3

104.4

105.3

105.2

Buffalo

5-1

7-3

99.7

101.8

101.1

Ohio

3-3

6-4

89.1

92.4

89.4

Kent St.

2-5

3-8

86.3

89.1

86.5

Akron

3-4

4-7

82.2

85.9

82.6

Massachusetts

1-5

1-9

72.8

77.8

72.9

Miami (O)

0-6

0-10

70.5

73.5

69.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Northern Illinois

6-0

10-0

104.8

107.4

105.8

Toledo

5-1

7-3

101.5

103.7

102.7

Ball St.

6-1

9-2

100.0

103.3

100.8

Central Michigan

3-3

4-6

82.4

84.7

82.0

Western Michigan

1-6

1-10

75.6

77.5

75.5

Eastern Michigan

1-5

2-8

71.1

73.7

70.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.7

90.5

88.0

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Boise St.

5-1

7-3

105.2

101.9

106.6

Utah St.

5-1

6-4

105.1

103.3

106.6

Colorado St.

4-2

6-5

96.3

96.3

97.2

Wyoming

2-4

4-6

85.6

86.7

86.3

New Mexico

1-5

3-7

81.3

85.0

81.9

Air Force

0-6

2-8

79.3

82.7

79.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

6-0

9-0

106.7

106.4

106.3

San Jose St.

4-3

5-5

95.8

93.4

96.2

San Diego St.

5-1

6-4

93.7

92.7

94.2

U N L V

3-3

5-5

87.2

88.8

87.8

Nevada

3-5

4-7

85.9

87.5

85.9

Hawaii

0-7

0-10

83.0

83.2

83.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

92.1

92.3

92.6

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

6-1

9-1

133.1

129.6

133.7

Stanford

6-2

8-2

126.0

119.0

125.4

Washington

3-4

6-4

119.7

115.6

119.1

Oregon St.

4-3

6-4

115.4

108.0

113.7

Washington St.

3-4

5-5

104.0

103.1

104.8

California

0-8

1-10

89.5

85.7

87.5

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona St.

6-1

8-2

124.0

123.1

123.6

U S C

5-2

8-3

119.1

115.8

119.1

U C L A

5-2

8-2

119.1

114.5

118.1

Arizona

3-4

6-4

111.9

108.3

110.1

Utah

1-6

4-6

110.3

108.1

110.4

Colorado

1-6

4-6

89.9

90.2

88.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.5

110.1

112.8

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Missouri

5-1

9-1

123.8

122.0

123.2

South Carolina

6-2

8-2

119.1

116.5

118.0

Georgia

4-3

6-4

115.0

112.8

114.5

Florida

3-5

4-6

112.4

109.5

111.2

Vanderbilt

3-4

6-4

108.2

106.5

108.0

Tennessee

1-5

4-6

102.2

101.1

101.1

Kentucky

0-6

2-8

98.2

97.0

98.4

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

7-0

10-0

136.5

132.7

137.2

L S U

3-3

7-3

122.6

120.4

123.1

Texas A&M

4-2

8-2

121.5

119.3

121.3

Ole Miss

3-3

7-3

119.3

116.3

118.6

Auburn

6-1

10-1

119.1

118.4

119.2

Mississippi St.

1-5

4-6

108.2

105.8

108.6

Arkansas

0-6

3-7

95.9

98.3

94.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.4

112.6

114.1

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

5-0

8-2

93.3

95.0

93.6

Arkansas St.

4-1

6-4

93.2

92.5

93.3

Western Kentucky

2-3

6-4

89.6

91.9

89.7

Louisiana–Monroe

3-2

5-5

86.1

86.9

86.1

South Alabama

1-3

3-6

85.9

88.7

86.3

Troy

3-3

5-6

83.2

85.8

84.2

Texas St.

2-3

6-4

82.1

86.6

82.3

Georgia St.

0-5

0-10

64.8

70.5

66.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

84.8

87.2

85.2

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Old Dominion

 

8-3

85.7

87.2

92.0

Georgia Southern

 

6-3

82.9

85.3

90.0

Appalachian St.

 

2-8

73.4

72.3

80.1

Charlotte

 

4-6

57.2

61.8

64.3

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

74.8

76.7

81.6

 

This Week’s Spreads

Date:

November 19-23, 2013

   

 

 

 

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami (O) Buffalo

-26.7

-25.8

-29.5

Ohio Kent St.

5.3

5.8

5.4

Toledo Northern Illinois

-0.3

-0.7

-0.1

Central Florida Rutgers

16.5

16.9

17.7

U A B Rice

-18.3

-20.2

-20.1

Air Force U N L V

-4.9

-3.1

-5.7

San Jose St. Navy

2.5

-1.7

2.5

Stanford California

39.0

35.8

40.4

Arizona Oregon

-18.2

-18.3

-20.6

U C L A Arizona St.

-1.9

-5.6

-2.5

Colorado U S C

-26.2

-22.6

-27.7

Northwestern Michigan St.

-8.9

-11.9

-8.7

Kansas St. Oklahoma

1.2

-1.1

0.9

Louisville Memphis

26.3

20.7

26.1

Miami (Fla) Virginia

24.7

24.0

24.7

Wake Forest Duke

-4.4

-3.0

-3.5

Houston Cincinnati

-1.7

5.2

0.1

Iowa Michigan

-2.0

-2.8

-0.7

Purdue Illinois

-7.8

-11.9

-9.8

Arkansas Mississippi St.

-9.3

-4.5

-10.9

North Carolina St. East Carolina

-13.0

-11.6

-13.4

Syracuse Pittsburgh

1.5

2.1

1.1

Central Michigan Massachusetts

12.1

9.4

11.6

Eastern Michigan Bowling Green

-30.8

-29.1

-32.7

Wyoming Hawaii

6.6

7.5

6.7

Arkansas St. Georgia St.

31.4

25.0

30.2

Florida Atlantic New Mexico St.

21.5

18.9

22.7

Florida St. Idaho

71.6

71.7

73.7

Ohio St. Indiana

29.8

27.1

30.5

L S U Texas A&M

4.1

4.1

4.8

Minnesota Wisconsin

-14.2

-14.9

-15.4

Notre Dame B Y U

-1.2

-2.1

-3.9

Maryland Boston College

-1.7

0.4

-1.7

Penn St. Nebraska

-4.1

-1.9

-4.0

North Texas U T S A

11.8

12.5

13.2

Washington St. Utah

-3.3

-3.0

-2.6

Utah St. Colorado St.

11.8

10.0

12.4

Southern Miss. Middle Tennessee

-21.8

-26.6

-23.9

Tulane U T E P

11.4

12.7

12.4

Fresno St. New Mexico

28.4

24.4

27.4

Florida Int’l Marshall

-32.1

-33.5

-34.1

Georgia Kentucky

19.8

18.8

19.1

South Alabama UL-Monroe

2.3

4.3

2.7

South Florida S M U

-5.5

-9.6

-5.5

Temple Connecticut

8.1

13.2

8.5

Texas St. Western Kentucky

-4.5

-2.3

-4.4

Louisiana Tech Tulsa

-4.0

-1.2

-3.6

Tennessee Vanderbilt

-3.0

-2.4

-3.9

Ole Miss Missouri

-1.5

-2.7

-1.6

Oklahoma St. Baylor

-3.7

-5.2

-5.5

Iowa St. Kansas

1.2

-2.5

0.2

San Diego St. Boise St.

-8.5

-6.2

-9.4

Oregon St. Washington

-1.3

-4.6

-2.4

 

PiRate Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Colorado St.

vs.

Oregon St.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Boise St.

vs.

U C L A

Famous Idaho Potato

Arizona *

vs.

Toledo

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Tulane

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

Western Kentucky *

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Hawai’i

San Diego St.

vs.

Rice

Little Caesars Pizza

Ball St.

vs.

Texas St. *

Poinsettia

Utah St.

vs.

Washington St. *

Military Bowl

Georgia Tech

vs.

Marshall

Texas

Michigan

vs.

Kansas St.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Washington

vs.

B Y U %

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

Notre Dame *

Belk

Cincinnati

vs.

Maryland

Russell Athletic

Louisville

vs.

Miami

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Texas

vs.

Iowa

Armed Forces

U N L V

vs.

Navy %

Music City

Syracuse

vs.

Georgia

Alamo

Oklahoma

vs.

Stanford

Holiday

Texas Tech

vs.

Arizona St.

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Buffalo *

vs.

North Carolina

Sun

Virginia Tech

vs.

U S C

Liberty

Tennessee

vs.

East Carolina

Chick-fil-A

Duke

vs.

Texas A&M

Heart Of Dallas

North Texas

vs.

Bowling Green *

Gator

Minnesota

vs.

Ole Miss

Outback

South Carolina

vs.

Nebraska

Capital One

Wisconsin

vs.

Missouri

Rose

Michigan St.

vs.

Oregon

Fiesta

Oklahoma St.

vs.

Fresno St.

Sugar

Auburn

vs.

Central Florida

Cotton

L S U

vs.

Baylor

Orange

Ohio St.

vs.

Clemson

BBVA Compass Bowl

Houston

vs.

Vanderbilt

GoDaddy.com

Arkansas St.

vs.

Northern Illinois

BCS Championship

Alabama

vs.

Florida St.

 

 

 

 

* At-Large Selection

 

 

 

% Already Accepted Bid

 

 

 

Bowl-Eligible Teams Left Out      
Boston College

 

 

 

Central Michigan

 

 

 

Florida Atlantic

 

 

 

Ohio

 

 

 

Pittsburgh

 

 

 

Troy

 

 

 

U T S A

 

 

 

 

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