NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship Preview

Welcome back to the PiRate Ratings’ Bracketnomics.  A quick tutorial about Bracketnomics:  We have studied numerous statistical factors of all Final Four Teams from the 1950’s until 2011.  We isolated the statistical similarities of those teams and found certain shared statistical characteristics.  For the last eight years, we have been applying it to the NCAA teams trying to discover which ones shared these same statistics as the Final Four teams of yesteryear.  In five of the last seven years, we were pretty spot on with our selections.  For instance, in 2009, whenKentucky,Kansas, andOhioStatewere listed as the heavy tri-favorites, our system showed Duke to be the top-rated team.  We went with Duke even though the Blue Devils were not being highly considered.  Now admittedly, we did not seeButlercoming through to the Finals that year, or last year either, but we did rateButleras one to watch to get to the Elite 8.

If you want all the details behind our PiRate Criteria Score, please refer to our Bracketnomics 505, 2012 edition at: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/03/10/bracketnomics-505-2012-edition/

 

2012 PiRate Ratings Final Four Preview—Championship Game

Monday, April 2, 2012, 9:23 PM EDT

The Superdome—New Orleans

CBS Television—Announcers: Jim Nantz, Clark Kellogg, and Steve Kerr

 

#1S Kentucky Wildcats (37-2) vs. #2MW Kansas Jayhawks (32-6)

Las Vegas Line: Kentucky by 6 ½

Over/Under: 137

 

In our founder’s lifetime, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers have met in the World Series four times (1963, 1977, 1978, and 1981), splitting them two titles apiece.  The two greatest franchises have not gone to a seventh game since 1956.

 

This is what the sports public gets to enjoy Monday night.  Kansas and Kentucky are the two most fabled basketball powers in the NCAA.  However, this is the first time the Jayhawks and Wildcats have met in the National Championship.

 

The game’s inventor, James Naismith was Kansas’s first head coach.  He turned the reins over to Phog Allen.  Allen led KU to the voted National Championship in 1922 and 1923.  One of his players on those teams was Adolph Rupp.

 

Kentucky Coach John Calipari and Kansas Coach Bill Self have a history.  Self’s lone National Championship came over Calipari in his lone appearance in the finals when Kansas came from behind to beat Memphis 75-68 in overtime. 

 

We expect this game to rival that one in excitement.  If you are a basketball fan, this game should be one you will definitely watch. 

 

These teams met at Madison Square Garden on November 15, and Kentucky won 75-65.  After battling to a 28-28 tie, Kentucky scored 11 consecutive points on a layup by Jones, a dunk by Davis, a dunk by Jones, a three-pointer by Teague, and a two-point jumper by Teague, in a three-minute stretch.  The Wildcats then pulled away to a 17-point lead and maintained a double-digit spread until the final seconds.

 

The Rosters, Scores, and Statistics

 

Kentucky Wildcats

 

No.	Name	Pos.	Ht.	Wt.	Yr.	Hometown (Last School)
1	Darius Miller	G	6-08	235	SR	Maysville,Ky.(MasonCounty)
3	Terrence Jones	F	6-09	252	SO	Portland,Ore.(Jefferson)
4	Jon Hood	G	6-07	215	JR	Madisonville,Ky.(North Hopkins)
5	Jarrod Polson	G	6-02	185	SO	Nicholasville,Ky.(West Jessamine)
10	Twany Beckham	G	6-05	205	JR	Louisville,Ky.(MississippiState)
12	Ryan Harrow	G	6-02	175	SO	Marietta, Ga. (N.C. State)
13	Sam Malone	G	5-11	190	FR	Scituate,Mass.(Scituate)
14	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	F	6-07	232	FR	Somerdale,N.J.(St. Patrick)
20	Doron Lamb	G	6-04	210	SO	Queens,N.Y.(OakHillAcademy)
23	Anthony Davis	F	6-10	220	FR	Chicago,Ill.(Perspectives Charter)
25	Marquis Teague	G	6-02	189	FR	Indianapolis,Ind.(Pike)
30	Eloy Vargas	F	6-11	244	SR	Moca,Dominican Republic(Miami-Dade CC)
32	Brian Long	G	5-09	150	FR	Dumont,N.J.(River Dell)
33	Kyle Wiltjer	F	6-09	239	FR	Portland,Ore.(Jesuit)
Coaches and Staff
John Calipari – Head Coach
OrlandoAntigua- Assistant Coach
Kenny Payne – Assistant Coach
John Robic – Assistant Coach

 

Results   Opponent	UK	Opp
Marist	108	58
(n)Kansas	75	65
(n)PennState	85	47
(n) Old Dominion	62	52
Radford	88	40
Portland	87	63
St. John’s	81	59
North Carolina	73	72
at Indiana	72	73
Chattanooga	87	62
Samford	82	50
Loyola (Md.)	87	63
Lamar	86	64
Louisville	69	62
(n) Arkansas-Little Rock	73	51
South Carolina	79	64
atAuburn	68	53
atTennessee	65	62
Arkansas	86	63
Alabama	77	71
atGeorgia	57	44
at L S U	74	50
Tennessee	69	44
atSouth Carolina	86	52
Florida	78	58
at Vanderbilt	69	63
Ole Miss	77	62
atMississippiState	73	64
Vanderbilt	83	74
Georgia	79	49
atFlorida	74	59
(n) L S U	60	51
(n)Florida	74	71
(n) Vanderbilt	64	71
ncaaWestern Kentucky	81	66
ncaaIowaState	87	71
ncaa Indiana	102	90
ncaa Baylor	82	70
ncaaLouisville	69	61

 

 

Statistics

Player	G-GS	Min	Avg	FG-Att	Fg%	3 FG-Att	3Pt %	Ft-Att	Ft%
Anthony Davis	39-39	1245	31.9	209-327	.639	3-20	.150	140-197	.711
Doron Lamb	39-34	1214	31.1	168-357	.471	73-157	.465	118-143	.825
Terrence Jones	37-33	1085	29.3	173-347	.499	16-48	.333	98-156	.628
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	39-38	1210	31.0	156-319	.489	13-50	.260	140-188	.745
Marquis Teague	39-39	1269	32.5	140-338	.414	24-77	.312	83-116	.716
Darius Miller	39-11	1018	26.1	141-297	.475	55-147	.374	55-69	.797
Kyle Wiltjer	39-0	458	11.7	71-161	.441	35-80	.438	22-27	.815
Sam Malone	6-0	13	2.2	3-6	.500	0-0	.000	0-0	.000
Eloy Vargas	32-1	196	6.1	12-36	.333	0-1	.000	4-13	.308
Brian Long	12-0	17	1.4	0-1	.000	0-0	.000	2-4	.500
Jarrod Polson	11-0	31	2.8	0-2	.000	0-1	.000	1-4	.250
Twany Beckham	16-0	44	2.8	0-1	.000	0-0	.000	0-0	.000
Kentucky	39	7800	200.0	1073-2192	.490	219-581	.377	663-917	.723
Opponents	39	7800	200.0	867-2317	.374	214-678	.316	416-599	.694
Player	Reb O	Reb D	Tot	F-DQ	Ast	TO	Blk	Stl	Pts
Anthony Davis	115	284	399	76-1	45	38	180	51	561
Doron Lamb	14	92	106	70-0	57	43	2	19	527
Terrence Jones	95	170	265	87-3	51	60	66	48	460
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	101	190	291	95-5	74	86	36	39	465
Marquis Teague	16	83	99	89-1	188	107	11	37	387
Darius Miller	35	69	104	85-0	82	56	11	33	392
Kyle Wiltjer	26	44	70	44-0	16	27	17	5	199
Sam Malone	0	2	2	0-0	1	4	0	0	6
Eloy Vargas	20	36	56	25-0	2	6	10	3	28
Brian Long	1	1	2	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Jarrod Polson	0	4	4	4-0	1	5	0	2	1
Twany Beckham	2	6	8	0-0	2	1	0	1	0
Team	50	57	107	9
Kentucky	475	1038	1513	578-10	519	442	333	238	3028
Opponents	476	775	1251	734-x	411	457	128	212	2364
Player	Scoring		Rebounding
Anthony Davis	14.4		10.2
Doron Lamb	13.5		2.7
Terrence Jones	12.4		7.2
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	11.9		7.5
Marquis Teague	9.9		2.5
Darius Miller	10.1		2.7
Kyle Wiltjer	5.1		1.8
Sam Malone	1.0		0.3
Eloy Vargas	0.9		1.8
Brian Long	0.2		0.2
Jarrod Polson	0.1		0.4
Twany Beckham	0.0		0.5
Team			2.8
Kentucky	77.6		38.8
Opponents	60.6		32.1

 

 

 

Kansas Jayhawks

 

No.       Player                           Pos      Ht         Wt        Yr         Home Town (Last Team)

0          Thomas Robinson          F          6-10      237       JR        Washington, D.C./Brewster [N.H.] Academy

1          Naadir Tharpe                G          5-11      170       FR        Worcester, Mass./Brewster [N.H.] Academy

2          Conner Teahan              G          6-06      212       SR       Leawood, Kan./Rockhurst HS

4          Justin Wesley                F          6-09      220       SO       Fort Worth, Texas/North Crowley HS/Lamar

5          Jeff Withey                    C          7-00      235       JR        San Diego, Calif./Horizon HS

10         Tyshawn Taylor             G          6-03      185       SR       Hoboken, N.J./St. Anthony HS

15         Elijah Johnson               G          6-04      195       JR        Las Vegas, Nev./Cheyenne HS

20         Niko Roberts                 G          5-11      175       SO       Huntington, N.Y./Saint Anthony’s HS

21         Christian Garrett            G          6-03      170       FR        Los Angeles, Calif./IMG Academy

22         Merv Lindsay                 G          6-07      195       FR        Moreno Valley, Calif./Canyon Springs High School

23         Ben McLemore              G          6-05      185       FR        St. Louis, Mo./Christian Life Center [Texas]

24         Travis Releford              G          6-06      207       JR        Kansas City, Mo./Bishop Miege HS

25         Jordan Juenemann         G          6-03      195       SR       Hays, Kan./Hays HS

31         Jamari Traylor               F          6-08      215       FR        Chicago, Ill./IMG Academy [Fla.]

40         Kevin Young                  F          6-08      185       JR        Perris, Calif./Perris High School/Loyola Marymount

 

 

Coaches

 

Bill Self – Head Coach

Joe Dooley – Assistant Coach

Kurtis Townsend – Assistant Coach

Danny Manning – Assistant Coach

 

Results

Opponent	KU	Att.
Towson	100	54
(n) Kentucky	65	75
(n)Georgetown	67	63
(n) UCLA	72	56
(n) Duke	61	68
FloridaAtlantic	77	54
South Florifa	70	42
Long Beach St.	88	80
OhioState	78	67
(n) Davidson	74	80
atSouthern Cal	63	47
Howard	89	34
North Dakota	84	58
KansasState	67	49
atOklahoma	72	61
atTexasTech	81	46
IowaState	82	73
Baylor	92	74
atTexas	69	66
TexasA&M	64	54
at Iowa State	64	72
Oklahoma	84	62
at Missouri	71	74
at Baylor	68	54
OklahomaState	81	66
atKansasState	59	53
TexasTech	83	50
atTexasA&M	66	58
Missouri	87	86
atOklahomaState	70	58
Texas	73	63
vs.TexasA&M	83	66
vs. Baylor	72	81
ncaaDetroit	65	50
ncaa Purdue	63	60
ncaaNorth CarolinaState	60	57
ncaaNorth Carolina	80	67
ncaaOhioState	64	62

 

Statistics

Player	gp-gs	min	avg	fg-fga	fg%	3fg-fga	3fg%	ft-fta	ft%
Thomas Robinson	38-38	1204	31.7	255-500	.510	7-14	.500	157-232	.677
Tyshawn Taylor	38-37	1267	33.3	218-457	.477	57-151	.377	135-196	.689
Elijah Johnson	38-37	1218	32.1	143-331	.432	66-197	.335	32-46	.696
Jeff Withey	38-38	936	24.6	111-203	.547	0-0	.000	123-155	.794
Travis Releford	38-37	1176	30.9	118-233	.506	25-78	.321	67-102	.657
Conner Teahan	38-2	801	21.1	68-186	.366	51-151	.338	26-31	.839
Kevin Young	37-0	421	11.4	47-98	.480	3-9	.333	33-49	.673
Jordan Juenemann	15-1	47	3.1	8-18	.444	1-6	.167	2-6	.333
Justin Wesley	37-0	324	8.8	17-30	.567	0-0	.000	11-26	.423
Merv Lindsay	12-0	26	2.2	5-9	.556	1-3	.333	0-1	.000
Naadir Tharpe	32-0	175	5.5	11-38	.289	6-22	.273	1-2	.500
Niko Roberts	7-0	14	2.0	0-4	.000	0-1	.000	0-2	.000
Christian Garrett	7-0	15	2.1	0-0	.000	0-0	.000	0-0	.000
Anthony West	1-0	1	1.0	0-0	.000	0-0	.000	0-0	.000
Total……….	38	7625	200.7	1001-2107	.475	217-632	.343	587-848	.692
Opponents……	38	7625	200.7	803-2120	.379	230-680	.338	504-700	.720
Player	Reb-O	Reb-D	Reb-Tot	Fl-DQ	a	to	blk	stl	pts
Thomas Robinson	108	338	446	105-2	71	103	34	42	674
Tyshawn Taylor	7	80	87	76-0	183	133	6	51	628
Elijah Johnson	15	109	124	91-2	135	69	2	54	384
Jeff Withey	78	160	238	95-1	28	48	136	23	345
Travis Releford	62	101	163	78-0	68	37	7	45	328
Conner Teahan	25	55	80	64-1	40	36	1	27	213
Kevin Young	52	59	111	61-0	24	29	15	20	130
Jordan Juenemann	1	7	8	4-0	2	2	1	1	19
Justin Wesley	26	33	59	69-1	1	11	14	6	45
Merv Lindsay	0	3	3	3-0	1	0	1	1	11
Naadir Tharpe	3	7	10	12-0	21	22	0	7	29
Niko Roberts	0	2	2	4-0	3	2	0	2	0
Christian Garrett	1	1	2	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Anthony West	0	0	0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	60	40	100
Total……….	438	995	1433	662-7	578	497	217	279	2808
Opponents……	407	806	1213	703-x	424	522	126	249	2340
Player	Scoring		Rebounding
Thomas Robinson	17.7		11.7
Tyshawn Taylor	16.5		2.3
Elijah Johnson	10.1		3.3
Jeff Withey	9.1		6.3
Travis Releford	8.6		4.3
Conner Teahan	5.6		2.1
Kevin Young	3.5		3.0
Jordan Juenemann	1.3		0.5
Justin Wesley	1.2		1.6
Merv Lindsay	0.9		0.3
Naadir Tharpe	0.9		0.3
Niko Roberts	0.0		0.3
Christian Garrett	0.0		0.3
Anthony West	0.0		0.0
Team			2.6
Total……….	73.9		37.7
Opponents……	61.6		31.9

 

PiRate Criteria Ratings

Criteria Stat	Kentucky	Pts	Kansas	Pts
Scoring Margin	17.0	8.50	12.30	6.2
FG% Margin	11.6	5.80	9.6	4.8
Rebound Margin	6.7	4.00	5.8	3.5
TO Margin	0.4	0.20	0.6	0.3
R + T *	8.40	3.40	7.98	3.2
Schedule  Strength ^	.5768	2.70	.5898	4.0
Road W-L% #	90.5	4.50	72.7	2.5
TOTAL	UK	29.10	KU	24.5

 

 

* R+T is the PiRate Ratings’ estimate of the margin of extra scoring opportunities per game for each team.  The formula is: (Rebounding Margin) + (0.2 *  Avg. Steals Per Game) + (1.2 * Turnover Margin).  The result shows how many more scoring opportunities the team gets than its opponents.  If the R+T is 10, that means a team averages 10 more scoring opportunities per game over its opponents.

 

^ Strength of Schedule is taken from the RPI ratings from Statsheet.com.

 

# Road W-L% includes true road games and neutral site games.

 

The Position Matchups

Point Guard: UK—Marquis Teague  KU—Tyshawn Taylor

Taylor had the better night at MSG, but Teague was playing in just his second collegiate game back on November 15.  This time around, Teague is the equal of the senior Taylor.  Taylor is a little better offensively, but his advantage will be neutralized to a great extent, because he will not be able to beat Teague to the basket and score with Jones and Davis waiting to send shots into the eighth row in the stands.

 

Advantage: Draw

 

Shooting Guard: UK—Doron Lamb  KU—Elijah Johnson

Lamb is a considerably better shooter with the ability to get open.  Johnson has a tendency to take unwise shots at times, the type that can turn into Kentucky fast breaks.

 

Johnson’s edge comes as a second point guard.  KU can reverse the ball to the opposite side, and Johnson is like a second assist specialist on the floor.

 

This will be one of three big keys in this game. 

 

Advantage: Kentucky, but very slight

 

Small Forward: UK—Michael Kidd-Gilchrist  KU—Travis Releford

Kidd-Gilchrist has a 25-pound weight advantage without giving away much in quickness to Releford.  Releford is a better defensive player than Kidd-Gilchrist, but the Wildcats only need him to stay out of foul trouble and keep the perimeter defenders from ganging up on the other two big men.

 

Advantage: Kentucky, but very slight

 

Power Forward/Center: UK—Terence Jones  KU—Jeff Withey

We had to do some changing here, because Withey will be assigned to Jones and not Davis.  This is an excellent matchup, but Jones is the better player.  Withey is probably the second best shot blocker in the nation, and he could swat away three to five shots in this game, but Jones will outshine him Monday night.

 

Jones did not have a great game against Louisville, while Withey played well against Ohio State.  We believe in the law of averages and think the unknown key in this game is that Jones is sitting on one big college finale.  We’ve seen this before.  Look for Jones to be the special factor in this game.

 

Advantage: Kentucky

 

Power Forward/Center: UK—Anthony Davis  KU—Thomas Robinson

Going back to the Yankees/Dodgers analogy, this is Sandy Koufax against Whitey Ford, Reggie Jackson against Steve Garvey, and Mickey Mantle against Duke Snider.

 

Davis is the best player in the nation, while Robinson is maybe number three if not number two.  Both of them will be pressing at the start, and the other key will be if one gets a couple of quick fouls.  All in all, these two future NBA stars will put on a great show for the audience, but in the end, we do not expect the game to be decided here.  Both will have good but not great games.

 

Advantage: Draw

 

Bench: UK—Darius Miller, Kyle Wiltjer, Eloy Vargas  KU—Connor Teahan, Kevin Young, Justin Wesley

 

Miller and Teahan are almost sixth starters, as they play almost as much as the starting fives on their teams.  Wiltjer and Young play about 10-12 minutes per game, while Wesley and Vargas see minutes only to spell starters that have to come out for a break.  With the longer timeouts in these games, Wesley and Vargas are not going to see much action.  In fact, Wesley did not play for the first time this season Saturday night.

 

Because none of the bench players is going to be asked to do much, there will be no advantage here.

 

Advantage: Draw

 

Coaching: UK—John Calipari  KU—Bill Self

These two successful coaches have ties to the same school, and that school is Kansas.  Calipari was an assistant at Kansas during the Larry Brown era, and when he left to move to the top assistant position at Pitt, Self replaced him in Lawrence.

 

Self also served as an assistant at his alma mater, Oklahoma State under two former Kentucky coaches—Leonard Hamilton (an assistant under Joe B. Hall) and Eddie Sutton.

 

Both coaches know their stuff.  They motivate their players to play tenacious defense and to work the ball into the paint for close-in shots.  This type of play wins in the Big Dance.

 

Advantage: Draw

 

Prediction:  We mentioned three keys in this game.  The first key is at the 2-guard position.  Lamb is the type of player that does not feel pressure.  If he gets a hot hand from outside, it will be lights out for the Jayhwaks.  Johnson has to stick to Lamb and not give him open looks.  He also has to contribute with three or more assists, meaning Kansas will be able to reverse the ball and avoid Davis inside.

 

The second key is the matchup of the two superstars.  If one gets into early foul trouble, the other will break loose and control the game.  Because the officials will know they can affect the outcome by whistling one of the two, we do not foresee this being a problem.

 

It is the third key where we believe this game will be decided.  We do not believe Withey, with help from Robinson, will be able to stop Jones.  Jones is sitting on a great game, and he has one left to prove us.  Calipari asked him to step down as the go-to guy, and he will motivate Jones to go out and prove that he can still carry the ‘Cats.

 

Only one team can beat Kentucky, and that is Kentucky.  The Wildcats will consider this a disappointing season if they lose.  They won’t.  We chose Kentucky at the start to win this tournament, and we were successful in picking three of the final four with Ohio State and Kansas.  We have to stick with the one we predicted three weeks ago.

 

Kentucky 72  Kansas 66

PiRate Ratings Elite Eight Preview For Saturday-Sunday, March 26-27, 2011

It hasn’t been pretty for our PiRate Criteria Ratings this year.  We are down to one team left in our Final Four bracket, but at least it is the team we picked to win it all.  Kansas is our last hope, but if the Jayhawks can get by Virginia Commonwealth, they will be two wins away from keeping our successful record of picking the national champion before the tournament begins intact.

 

We are shocked that a team with a negative PiRate Criteria score is still around, and even more surprised that the team has had to win one extra game to get to this point.  We are almost as shocked to see Arizona in the Elite Eight with a score of just four points, and we are semi-surprised to see Butler back in the Elite Eight with a rating of four.  The Bulldogs’ 2010 PiRate Criteria score was 10 points higher than it is today, and they were actually favored to beat Syracuse in the Sweet 16 by our ratings.

 

PiRate Criteria Rating in (parentheses)

All Games on CBS

 

Saturday, March 26, 2011

4:30 PM EDT—Southeast Regional Final @ New Orleans

#2 Florida 29-7 (15) vs. #8 Butler 26-9 (4)

Position	Florida	Butler
Coach	Billy Donovan	Brad Stevens
Center	(32) Vernon Macklin 6-10 Sr.–11.2/5.4  58.4% FG	(44) Andrew Smith 6-11 So.–8.9/5.4  62.2% FG ***Probable***
Forward	(23) Alex Tyus 6-8 Sr.–8.9/6.1	(54) Matt Howard 6-8 Sr.–16.8/7.8  44.4%  3pt
Forward	(25) Chandler Parsons 6-10 Sr.–11.5/7.8  3.8 ast	(33) Chase Stigall 6-4 So.–4.0/1.8
Guard	(1) Kenny Boynton 6-2 So.–14.1/1.4  82.1% FT	(1) Shelvin Mack 6-3 Sr.–15.6/4.3  3.6 ast
Guard	(11) Erving Walker  5-8 Jr.–14.8/3.0  3.4 ast	(2) Shawn Vanzant 6-0 Sr.–8.1/3.1  42.3% 3 pt
6th	(4) Patric Young 6-9 Fr. F/C–3.4/3.8  56.8% FG	(23) Khyle Marshall 6-7 Fr. F–5.8/3.7
7th	(5) Scottie Wilbekin 6-2 Fr. G–2.5/1.5  1.7 ast	(5) Ronald Nored 6-0 Jr.–5.3/3.0  2.5 ast

 

PiRate Criteria Stats

 

Team	Florida	Butler
Pts	9.1	7.8
FG%	4.2	1.5
Reb	6.0	2.9
TO	0.3	1.7
Stl	5.9	6.0
R+T	6.42	5.35
SOS	60	54
Road%	79	67
PiRate #	15	4

 

Can Butler do it again?  It does not appear highly probable, but then the Bulldogs have made a science out of making the improbable probable. 

 

If the Bulldogs are to have any chance in this game, big man Andrew Smith must be able to play at close to 100%.  Smith sprained his ankle in the Sweet 16 win over Wisconsin, and after he exited the game, Butler almost blew a 20-point lead.  It is the emergence of Smith as a key player that has fueled Butler’s long winning streak.  He has led the team in both steals and blocked shots in the winning streak.

 

When Smith is patrolling under the basket, Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack get more open looks.  The duo will need to combine for 40+ points in this game, and they will need to connect on better than 50% of their two-point shots and better than 40% of their three-point shots for Butler to advance to the Final Four for the second consecutive year.

 

When Florida won the National Championship in 2007, their toughest game may have been their Sweet 16 game against Butler.  That Gator team benefitted from having five starters that could score 20 points in a game.  Coach Donovan’s club moves the ball quickly and the players without the ball keep their defender occupied.  Not the most consistent team defensively, the Gators tend to play in spurts.  At times, they are tough on opponents, and at times, opponents get a lot of open looks. 

 

To beat Florida, the key is to penetrate the perimeter defense and take a lot of shots in the 5-10 foot range.  Butler may lack the quickness to get into that inside zone, especially if Smith is not able to occupy 1 ½ defenders.

 

The Southeastern Conference was supposed to be down again this year, and the early NCAA Tournament exits of Tennessee, Georgia, and Vanderbilt supposedly proved this point.  However, the SEC could very well place two teams in the Final Four this year.

 

Prediction: Florida 69  Butler 60

 

7:05 PM EDT—West Regional Final @ Anaheim

#3 Connecticut 29-9 (11)  vs. #5 Arizona 30-7 (4)

Position	Connecticut	Arizona
Coach	Jim Calhoun	Sean Miller
Center	(35) Charles Okwandu 7-0 Sr.–2.9/2.8	(23) Derrick Williams 6-8 So.–19.5/8.4  60.2% FG/60.3% 3pt
Forward	(34) Alex Oriakhi 6-9 So.–9.7/8.7  1.6 Blk	(33) Jesse Perry 6-7 Jr.–6.4/4.4
Forward	(22) Roscoe Smith 6-8 Fr.–6.5/5.2  1.2 Blk	(44) Solomon Hill 6-6 So.–8.1/4.6  78.0% FT
Guard	(3) Jeremy Lamb 6-5 Fr.–10.9/4.3  79.6% FT	(21) Kyle Fogg 6-3 Jr.–8.1/1.8  2.6 Ast
Guard	(15) Kemba Walker 6-1 Jr.–24.0/5.4  4.5 ast/1.9 stl	(12) Lamont Jones 6-0 So.–9.7/1.6  2.5 Ast/82.8% FT
6th	(13) Shabazz Napier 6-0 Fr. G–7.9/2.3  3.1 Ast	(3) Kevin Parrom 6-6 So. G/F–7.8/3.4  2.0 Ast/42.2% 3pt
7th	(4) Jamal Coombs-McDaniel 6-7 So. F–6.0/2.7  81.5% FT	(42) Jamelle Horne 6-7 Sr. F–6.2/3.3  40.8% 3pt

PiRate Criteria Stats

 

Team	Connecticut	Arizona
Pts	7.7	8.7
FG%	3.5	2.5
Reb	4.8	3.6
TO	0.3	-0.1
Stl	6.5	5.2
R+T	5.27	4.52
SOS	60	55
Road%	76	67
PiRate #	11	4

 

Two teams with one dominant player and a host of above-average complimentary players should make for an interesting game.  Unfortunately, the teams’ key players will not face off against each other, as Walker is the play-maker for UConn, and Williams is the big man for ‘Zona.

 

On closer inspection, we took a look at Connecticut’s season in three parts.  The Huskies looked like a Final Four team in two of those three parts.  They began the season 10-0, including a blowout win over Kentucky in Hawaii.  They had a lackluster 11-9 middle.  Then, they caught lightning in a bottle, winning five games in five days to take the Big East Tournament title and won three games in the Big Dance to come into this game riding an eight-game winning streak.  Once again, they have looked like a Final Four team.

 

Arizona entered this tournament with a 4-3 mark in its final seven games.  The Wildcats narrowly escaped with wins over Memphis and Texas in the first week, but then they blew defending champion Duke off the floor Thursday night.  They dominated the Blue Devils inside and forced Duke to beat them from over the top.  Duke could not get enough good outside shots in the second half, and Arizona cruised to an easy win.

 

We believe that Connecticut’s backcourt is not that far from Duke’s in total talent, but the Huskies are much stronger inside where it counts.  Connecticut should win the battle of the boards in this game and pound on Derrick Williams enough to throw him off his game.  Arizona has overachieved getting to this point.  The Wildcats will be back in 2011-12 as a top contender for the Final Four, but they will have to settle for Elite Eight this year.

 

Prediction: Connecticut 74  Arizona 66

 

Sunday, March 27, 2011

2:20 PM EDT—Southwest Regional Final @ San Antonio

#1 Kansas 35-2 (23) vs. #11 Virginia Commonwealth 27-11 (-1)

Position	Kansas	Virginia Commonwealth
Coach	Bill Self	Shaka Smart
Center	(21) Markieff Morris 6-10 Jr.–13.6/8.2  59.6% FG/42.1% 3pt	(21) Jamie Skeen 6-9 Sr.–15.1/7.3  1.1 Blk
Forward	(22) Marcus Morris 6-9 Jr.–17.1/7.4  57.7% FG	(20) Bradford Burgess 6-6 Jr.–14.4/6.2  42.3% 3pt
Forward	(14) Tyrel Reed 6-3 Sr.–9.7/3.1  80.2% FT	(50) Ed Nixon 6-4 Sr.–7.2/2.6  1.9 Ast
Guard	(12) Brady Morningstar 6-4 Sr.–7.3/2.2  3.3 Ast/42.2% 3pt	(32) Brandon Rozzell 6-2 Sr.–11.8/2.3  1.4 Stl
Guard	(10) Tyshawn Taylor 6-3 Jr.–9.1/1.9  4.6 Ast	(12) Joey Rodriguez 5-10 Sr.–10.6/3.2  5.1 Ast/81.8% FT
6th	(32) Josh Selby 6-2 Fr. G–8.2/2.3  2.2 Ast	(23) Rob Brandenburg 6-2 Fr. G–5.2/1.8
7th	(00) Thomas Robinson 6-9 So.–7.8/6.6  60.1% FG	(10) Darius Theus 6-3 So. G–3.1/1.6  2.1 Ast

PiRate Criteria Stats

 

Team	Kansas	V C U
Pts	17.1	3.9
FG%	11.8	2
Reb	7.9	2.1
TO	0.8	-0.6
Stl	7.8	8.3
R+T	9.4	0.9
SOS	59	54
Road%	95	66
PiRate #	23	-1

 

This looks like an even bigger mismatch than Kansas’s Sweet 16 game, but VCU plays a feisty brand of basketball and can pull games out at the end with their pressure and herky-jerky style of play.

 

We anointed Kansas as our pick for the National Champion when the brackets came out two weeks ago, and the Jayhawks are the final power team we have left in the tournament.  KU possesses the same criteria as most of the past national champions.  The last team not to meet our minimum criteria that eventually won the national championship was this very same Kansas team in 1988.  We believe that on Sunday, the Jayhawks will restore some normalcy to this season’s Big Dance and prove to be the one Fred Astaire among a bunch of wannabes.

 

Kansas will not wilt under the pressure defense applied by VCU.  In fact, it will lead to a bunch of easy looks and a high shooting percentage.  The Jayhawks pass the ball like teams from the past, and they know how to hit open shots.  With Josh Selby possibly coming out of his shooting slump, we just cannot see another team defeating them this season.

 

For VCU, their real challenge will begin after the season ends.  Shaka Smart is certain to be in the mix in a number of vacant coaching jobs.  Tennessee, Missouri, North Carolina State, Georgia Tech, and others will be interested.

 

Prediction: Kansas 77  VCU 62

 

Sunday, March 27, 2011

5:05 PM EDT—East Regional Final @ Newark

#2 North Carolina 29-7 (16) vs. #4 Kentucky 28-8 (16)

Position	North Carolina	Kentucky
Coach	Roy Williams	John Calipari
Center	(44) Tyler Zeller 7-0 Jr.–15.6/7.2  54.0% FG	(55) Josh Harrellson 6-10 Sr.–7.5/8.8  1.6 Blk/61.2% FG
Forward	(31) John Henson 6-10 So.–11.9/10.1  3.3 Blk	(3) Terrence Jones 6-8 Fr.–15.9/8.7  1.9 Blk/1.6 Ast/1.1 Stl
Forward	(40) Harrison Barnes 6-8 Fr.–15.6/5.8  1.4 Ast	(34) DeAndre Liggins 6-6 Jr.–8.7/4.2  2.5 Ast/1.1 Stl
Guard	(1) Dexter Strickland 6-3 So.–7.4/3.1  2.2 Ast	(1) Darius Miller 6-7 Jr.–11.1/4.6  1.7 Ast
Guard	(5) Kendall Marshall 6-3 Fr.–6.2/2.1  6.2 Ast	(12) Brandon Knight 6-3 Fr.–17.2/3.8  4.2 Ast/79.9% FT
6th	(2) Leslie McDonald 6-4 So. G–7.1/2.2	(20) Doron Lamb 6-4 Fr. G–12.4/2.0  1.7 Ast
7th	(25) Justin Knox 6-9 Sr. F–4.5/3.2	(30) Eloy Vargas 6-10 Fr. F/C–1.6/2.0

 

PiRate Criteria Stats

Team	N. Carolina	Kentucky
Pts	9	12.2
FG%	4.7	6.9
Reb	6.5	4
TO	0.7	1.5
Stl	6.1	5.3
R+T	7.52	5.91
SOS	60	60
Road%	66	61
PiRate #	16	16

 

What we have here is the basketball equivalent of the Dodgers versus the Yankees.  Two of the top programs of all time face off for the second time this season.  In December, North Carolina edged the Wildcats by a deuce in Chapel Hill.

 

The Criteria score shows this game to be a tossup, but all five of us at the PiRate Ratings believe Kentucky is the clear-cut choice in this game.  John Calipari is on the verge of getting his third different school into the Final Four.  His teams always play better against an opponent once they have faced that opponent.  Against Florida, they learned after the first game how to slow down the Gators.  They learned how to stop them cold after the second game, and in the event they see them a fourth time, they will repeat it again.  That is getting a bit too far ahead.

 

North Carolina lacks the quickness to stop the Kentucky penetration, and if the Blue Mist hits at least 35% of their three-pointers in this game, they will advance to the Final Four.

 

North Carolina has a decided depth advantage, but the Tar Heels are not as deep as they once were.  With the longer time outs in this tournament, Kentucky can get by with six key players.

 

We see this game as one of spurts.  The Tar Heels will have two or three spurts, but Kentucky will have three or four.  We believe that UK will take the lead for good with five or six minutes left in the game.

 

Prediction: Kentucky 78  North Carolina 72

PiRate Ratings Sweet 16 Preview

Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament PiRate Criteria Ratings

Team	W – L	Pts	FG%	Reb	TO	Stl	R+T	SOS	Road%	PiRate #
Arizona	29-7	8.7	2.5	3.6	-0.1	5.2	4.52	55	63	4
Brigham Young	32-4	14.1	4.0	3.0	3.5	8.0	9.72	58	86	18
Butler	25-9	7.8	1.5	2.9	1.7	6.0	5.35	54	65	4
Connecticut	28-9	7.7	3.5	4.8	0.3	6.5	5.27	60	75	11
Duke	32-4	17.1	7.1	3.1	2.7	7.3	7.83	58	79	17
Florida	28-7	9.1	4.2	6.0	0.3	5.9	6.42	60	78	15
Florida State	23-10	7.3	7.7	4.6	-0.8	8.5	5.34	54	61	5
Kansas	34-2	17.1	11.8	7.9	0.8	7.8	9.40	59	95	23
Kentucky	27-8	12.2	6.9	4.0	1.5	5.3	5.91	60	60	16
Marquette	22-14	7.0	2.9	2.7	2.1	7.3	6.38	57	44	3
North Carolina	28-7	9.0	4.7	6.5	0.7	6.1	7.52	60	65	16
Ohio State	34-2	18.0	7.6	4.9	4.8	7.1	13.08	58	88	23
Richmond	28-7	9.2	6.0	-1.9	2.1	6.0	1.12	52	81	3
San Diego State	34-2	13.2	7.1	6.9	1.6	6.2	9.28	58	95	19
V C U	25-11	3.9	2.0	2.1	-0.6	8.3	0.90	54	65	-1
Wisconsin	25-8	9.9	1.8	3.8	2.1	3.5	5.56	57	53	9

 All Times EDT

Number in (Parentheses) indicates PiRate Criteria Rating

For a detailed explanation of the PiRate Criteria Rating, click on the following link:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/bracketnomics-505-2011-edition/

PiRate Criteria Numbers Updated To Reflect 1^st Three Round Results

Thursday, March 24, 2011

7:15 PM on CBS 

West Regional @ Anaheim

#2 San Diego State 34-2 (19) vs. #3 Connecticut 28-9 (11)

Connecticut faces the first team in the tournament that has the defensive capacity to slow down Kemba Walker.  If Walker has a below-average game, the Huskies’ shooting percentage will head too far south, because UConn does not shoot all that well.

 

The Aztecs can make life miserable on opposing shooters, so if they contain Walker, SDSU has the advantage at the other four positions on the floor.  Kawhi Leonard and Malcolm Thomas remind us somewhat of former UCLA greats Sidney Wicks and Curtis Rowe.

 

The Aztecs’ eventual downfall may come when they are exploited by a defense that forces them to beat them from outside.  Connecticut just may be able to pull that off, so this game cannot be considered a slam dunk for the #2 seed Aztecs.

 

Prediction: San Diego State 67  Connecticut 61

 

7:27 PM on TBS 

Southeast Regional @ New Orleans

#2 Florida 28-7 (15) vs. #3 Brigham Young 32-4 (18)

This one should be interesting, as Florida tries to get revenge for a first round overtime loss to BYU last year.

 

We did not have much faith in the Cougars after Brandon Davies was dismissed for the season.  BYU recovered in the second and third rounds, and the 22-point win over Gonzaga was quite impressive.

 

Still, we discount the Cougars by three points with the absence of Davies.  This makes this game a tossup in our eyes. 

 

Florida is playing inspired ball, but we still do not believe the Gators are on par with their prior two national champion teams.  Offensively, the Gators spread the ball around, and all five starters typically score double figure points.  Defensively, they are underneath, and they frequently find ways to pressure the ball out front.  However, the top defender, Kenny Boynton, may not be 100% in this game.  He has an important assignment.

 

That assignment happens to be guarding Jimmer Fredette.  If Fredette tops 30 points without taking 30 shots to do so, the Cougars could easily give the Mountain West Conference a second team in the Elite Eight.

 

We are split on this game, and we did not come to a conclusion which way to go.  So, we will stick with the higher-rated PiRate Criteria score and go with the Cougars.

 

Prediction: B Y U 82  Florida 78

 

9:45 PM on CBS

West Regional @ Anaheim

#1 Duke 32-4 (17) vs. #5 Arizona 29-7 (4)

With Kyrie Irving back in the fold, Duke has the best eight-deep roster in the nation.  We believe the Blue Devils are the third best team in the Sweet 16 with Irving back.  He scored 25 points in the two games in Charlotte in just 41 minutes, and he picked up some rebounds as well.

 

The Blue Devils’ only thing close to a liability is their defense at forward.  Kyle Singler, Miles Plumlee, and Ryan Kelly have trouble against sneaky fast opponents.

 

Arizona’s forwards have that quickness.  Derrick Williams is as important to the Wildcats as Kemba Walker and Jimmer Fredette are to their teams.  Jesse Perry only averages seven points per game, but he can take it to the basket against a slower defender.

 

Arizona’s weakness is their defense against power offense.  Duke’s slower forwards as well as center Mason Plumlee can take advantage of the Wildcats’ defensive deficiencies. 

 

Coach K deserves to be compared with John Wooden.  Wooden’s UCLA teams won four games in the NCAA Tournament to win the championship in a field of 22-25 teams.  Krzyzewski’s have been forced to win six in a field of 64, 65, and 68.  We believe he is worth an extra five to 10 points, and we will select Duke to make it to the Elite Eight.

 

Prediction: Duke 77  Arizona 68

 

9:57 PM on TBS

Southeast Regional @ New Orleans

#4 Wisconsin 25-8 (9) vs. #8 Butler 25-9 (4)

Pick against Butler at your own risk.  If the Bulldogs can beat Pittsburgh, there is no reason to believe they cannot return to the Final Four.

 

We did not believe Wisconsin could make it to the Sweet 16 either.  As many readers know, we have ties to U Dub, and this group of Badgers did not look strong enough to us to make it to the second week of the tournament.

 

The PiRate Criteria indicates that Wisconsin is the favorite, but with our internal numbers that we do not advertise, we rate this game as a 50-50 affair.

 

Butler has the experience in close games.  They keep finding a way to win.  However, Wisconsin is one of those tough teams that can neutralize what has been working for Coach Brad Stevens’ Bulldogs.

 

This game could very well come down to the final few possessions, and the winner may struggle to top 55 points.  We do not see any more than 100 field goal attempts, and as few as eight players could score points in this game.

 

Matt Howard can force Wisconsin to bring a big man outside, and that will allow Andrew Smith to work with a little more clearance inside.  If Shelvin Mack keeps his hot streak going, Butler can win this one.

 

If Howard is not on target, and the Badgers do not have to respect his outside shooting ability, Coach Bo Ryan’s team will pack it in, control the boards, and then work patiently to set up Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer.  The tandem could score 40 points with the rest of the team adding just 15, and it could be enough to win this game.

 

Prediction: Wisconsin 55  Butler 54

 

Friday, March 25, 2011

 

7:15 PM on CBS

East Regional @ Newark

#2 North Carolina 28-7 (16) vs. #11 Marquette 22-14 (3)

We do not believe the Tar Heels are Final Four candidates this season.  No matter which team wins the game in the adjacent bracket, we see the Tar Heels losing in the Elite Eight.  However, the margin should be slim.

 

This is the Sweet 16 game, and Coach Roy Williams’ team is more than talented enough to advance to Sunday.  With the outside shooting of Kendall Marshall and Leslie McDonald combined with the take-it-to-the-hoop skills of Harrison Barnes and John Henson and the mandatory doubling down on big center Tyler Zeller, North Carolina will score a lot of points in this game.

 

Marquette’s only hope is for three players to be hot from the field, because Buzz Williams’ Golden Eagles will have to outscore North Carolina to win this game.

 

Marquette cannot go head-to-head inside and win this game.  They will have to hit 50% from the field to keep this game close.  From among Jimmy Butler, Darius Johnson-Odom, Jae Crowder, and Dwight Buycks three of these players will need to score 15-25 points each.  We see the Golden Eagles coming up short in this one.

 

Prediction: North Carolina 82  Marquette 79

 

7:27 PM on TBS

Southwest Regional @ San Antonio

#1 Kansas 34-2 (23) vs. #12 Richmond 29-7 (3)

Richmond apparently was seeded a few spots to low.  The Spiders have shown that the Atlantic 10 Conference is just below the top six or seven conferences in the nation and well above the average mid-major league.

 

Chris Mooney’s team can shoot the ball and prevent the opponent from shooting the ball.  With an inside-outside punch in big forward Justin Harper and sharpshooting guard Kevin Anderson, Richmond can score points consistently, albeit at a slower pace. 

 

Two things will do the Spiders in Friday night.  They are vulnerable against power teams and teams that can get on the boards for offensive rebounds.  Xavier and Old Dominion showed the blueprint for beating Richmond.

 

Kansas can take that blueprint and build a super foundation.  The Jayhawks are the best passing team in the tournament, and Coach Bill Self’s big men know how to move and get open to receive those passes.  Marcus and Markieff Morris can hit the boards at both ends, and Brady Morningstar and Tyshawn Taylor know how to get the ball to them.  KU will advance to play for a spot in the Final Four on Sunday.

 

Prediction: Kansas 73  Richmond 62

 

9:45 PM on CBS

East Regional @ Newark

#1 Ohio State 34-2 (23) vs. #4 Kentucky 27-8 (16)

This is the first contest in the tournament where both teams are rated worthy of making the Elite Eight. 

 

Ohio State has actually moved a couple of percentage points ahead of Kansas for the top overall Criteria score.  The Buckeyes are strong where Kentucky is strong, but Coach Thad Matta’s team also has strength were Kentucky has been vulnerable.  Tough perimeter defense forced George Mason to wilt in the Round of 32, and in William Buford, Jon Diebler, and David Lighty, Ohio State can cut off the perimeter game of most teams. 

 

With the great Jared Sullinger roaming the low post and baseline areas, Kentucky has to dedicate a big man to roam with him.  That will be the Wildcats’ downfall Friday night.  If Terrence Jones is forced to guard Sullinger, expect Josh Harrellson to have a hard time defending the paint against Ohio State’s quicker forwards and slashing guards.  If Harrellson goes out to guard Sullinger, he will have a hard time guarding the nation’s top big man.  Coach John Calipari will have to pick his poison.

 

Kentucky will need a great night from Brandon Knight and Doron Lamb.  If the two players and Darius Miller do not combine for 50 points, Kentucky will be heading back to Lexington, and the sports fans in the Commonwealth can turn their attention to Uncle Mo and the first Saturday in May.

Prediction: Ohio State 76  Kentucky 69

 

9:57 PM on TBS

#10 Florida State 23-10 (5) vs. #12 Virginia Commonwealth 25-11 (-1)

This game guarantees that one double-digit seed will make it to the Elite Eight, and Kansas fans must be quite happy about it.

 

We have two teams that have found a new gear in their engine at the most opportune time.  VCU was not even supposed to be in this tournament after failing to win the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament.  Instead, the Rams just became the first team to win three NCAA Tournament games in less than a week since Texas Western in 1966.  Texas Western went on to upset Kentucky and win the National Championship.  VCU is not Texas Western.  That TWU (Now UTEP) team was rated in the top five in the nation.

 

Florida State has not been to the Final Four since Hugh Durham took the Seminoles to the 1972 National Title game.  This team is not in that FSU team’s league.

 

So, what do we have here?  Florida State is a team that in most years would have been fortunate to win one game.  VCU is a team that in most years would probably be playing this week for a trip to Madison Square Garden and the NIT semi-finals.

 

VCU has a negative PiRate Criteria score, but it is moving close to zero.  Still, we cannot recall a negative criteria score making it to the Elite Eight.

 

Note: Both FSU Coach Leonard Hamilton and VCU Coach Shaka Smart are being mentioned as possible candidates for the vacant Tennessee job.

 

Prediction: Florida State 65  Virginia Commonwealth 60

 

Coming Saturday Morning: We will preview the Southeast and West Regional Final games.