American Athletic Conference Preview

Just when a Group of 5 Conference is getting really good with maybe three teams strong enough to contend for a 2022-23 Playoff berth, said league is about to lose all three really good teams. Cincinnati broke through the insiders’ club last year, when the Bearcats ran the table in the regular season and became the first G5 school to receive a bid to the National Championship Playoffs. It was the second consecutive year that Cinti won every regular season game.

Alas, the Bearcats are headed to the Big 12 Conference. Going with them are the other two really good teams–Houston and Central Florida. A host of Conference USA teams will replace the really good teams, and this league will fall back in the Group of 5 pecking order.

This will be one interesting race this year. Houston and Cincinnati are not scheduled to play, but there is a decent chance they will face each other in game 13 in December.

American Athletic Conference Preseason PiRate Ratings

Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	111.2	110.3	112.8	111.4
Houston	105.0	104.7	106.5	105.4
UCF	103.8	104.5	104.6	104.3
SMU	102.2	101.3	102.3	101.9
East Carolina	99.5	99.1	100.4	99.7
Tulane	98.6	97.7	97.9	98.1
Memphis	97.0	97.5	96.9	97.1
Tulsa	95.8	94.8	95.7	95.4
USF	96.2	94.7	95.1	95.3
Navy	92.9	92.1	91.3	92.1
Temple	80.9	83.4	78.6	81.0
AAC	98.5	98.2	98.4	98.3

American Athletic Conference Official Media Poll

		Votes
#	Team	1st Place	Overall
1	Houston	7	243
2	Cincinnati	10	242
3	Central Florida	7	225
4	SMU	0	187
5	Memphis	0	162
6	East Carolina	0	157
7	Tulane	0	115
8	Tulsa	0	93
9	South Florida	0	71
10	Navy	0	61
11	Temple	0	28

The PiRate Ratings are designed to look at just the next week’s schedule of games and not to use to look forward. Nevertheless, here are the predicted won-loss records for the league.

AAC	Conf	Overall
Cincinnati	8-0	12-1
Houston	8-0	11-2
Central Florida	7-1	10-2
SMU	5-3	7-5
East Carolina	4-4	6-6
Memphis	3-5	6-6
Tulsa	3-5	6-6
Tulane	2-6	5-7
South Florida	2-6	3-9
Navy	2-6	3-9
Temple	0-8	2-10

Cincinnati picked to win AAC Championship Game.

American Athletic Conference Preview

Today, we preview the strongest of the Group of 5 conferences.  In a couple of years, we might be referring to the American Athletic Conference as the top of the “Tier 2” leagues.  It would not be surprising to see some of the Big 12 teams and some of the AAC teams merging into one league.

Until then, the AAC remains the conference where the top team is usually the leading contender for the guaranteed Group of 5 team in a New Year’s Six bowl.  Last year, Cincinnati ran the table in the abbreviated season and then beat Tulsa in an exciting game to move to 9-0 and earn the New Year’s Six bowl bid against Georgia in the Peach Bowl.  Playing basically a road game against the in-state school, the Bearcats had a chance to win the game and fell just short.

Bearcats coach Luke Fickell welcomes back a roster that has a little rebuilding to do, but the talent-level should be a little stronger thanks to some excellent recruiting classes bringing underclassmen to the roster.

UC has back-to-back games at Indiana and Notre Dame after beginning the year with winnable home games.  If the Bearcats can pick off the Hoosiers and Fighting Irish, they could find themselves in the same position as last year–in the hunt for a Playoff bid but probably looking at a #6 or #7 final rating and a repeat trip to a New Year’s Six bowl.

The Bearcats cannot be counted out this year against the big dogs on their schedule.  A defense that gave up 16.8 points and 325 yards per game last year, could be a little better in 2021.  The secondary coverage should be one of the five best in the nation, led by the top cover corner in the nation in Ahmad Gardner.

The only question for this year’s UC team is the offensive line, which must be rebuilt with more underclassmen than upperclassmen.  In a season where other teams might field 23-year old seniors, this could come to haunt the Bearcats.

Central Florida undergoes a big change as Josh Heupel and his up-tempo, high-powered spread offense have moved to Tennessee, while former Auburn coach Gus Malzahn brings his different style of spread offense to Orlando.  The former offense was driving on the interstate in open country, while the new offense will be like the old blue highway with winding roads and hilly terrain.  It won’t be as flashy, but the Knights could benefit by playing defense a lot less than they did in recent years.  This is going to benefit UCF’s young defense that must break in eight new starters, including four excellent defensive backs.

The UCF offense can become the team’s best defense if they can sustain long drives.  In Heupel’s time in Orlando, UCF had no trouble moving the ball, but they scored so quickly, the defense fatigued.  In the Knights’ three losses last year, second half defense was the reason they lost those games by eight to Tulsa, one to Memphis, and three to Cincinnati.

This is year three for Dana Holgorsen, and he’s 7-13 in two years at the helm.  This is a school that made it public that 8-4 records were grounds for divorce with its head coach, so Holgorsen better hope he can turn things around this year, or he might receive a lump sum alimony check with orders to vacate the premises.

An Air Raid style offense that struggles to pass the ball is an anomaly.  Houston also had a problem holding onto the ball in 2020, and the defense was overly tasked due to a lot of short offensive drives that turned the ball over via fumble, interception, or punt.  

What hurt the Cougars most last year was never knowing if they were going to play from week to week.  They were like understudies when the star had a cold.  They prepared all week and then found out on Friday that their game was cancelled.  It happened eight times!

Quarterback Clayton Tune has the potential to run the Air Raid.  Houston needs to have an extra receiver step up to complement Jeremy Singleton and Nathaniel Dell.  

Defensively, we expect the UH stop troops to show considerable progress this year, especially if the Cougars cut down on the turnovers.  They gave up slightly less than 400 yards per game and 32 points per game in 2020. With most of the top players returning, those numbers could drop to 350-370 yards and 25-28 points per game.  And, what might that bring UH?  Maybe an 8-4 record, and we know what that did to former coaches Major Applewhite and Tony Levine.

Tulsa was the big surprise of the AAC last year.  After multiple years languishing near or at the bottom of the standings, the Golden Hurricane discovered how to play defense.  TU surrendered 21.6 points and 333 yards per game, holding Oklahoma State to 16, Navy to 6, undefeated league champion Cincinnati to 27, and Mississippi State to 28 in the Armed Forces Bowl.

That defense returns 10 starters, so opponents are going to be in for a fight trying to score points on the Hurricane in 2021.  If the offense can live up to expectations, then TU might repeat with another trip to the AAC Championship Game.  Quarterback Davis Brin came off the bench as the backup last year against Tulane and led TU on three consecutive touchdown drives, and then led his team to an overtime victory.  If he can play an entire season like he did in that quarter and a half, Tulsa might be playing at Cincinnati in November with first place on the line.

Tulane has slowly improved year by year during coach Willie Fritz’s tenure in the Crescent City.  Now entering year six, Fritz has a minor defensive rebuild to perform, but the offense should remain potent after averaging 35 points per game and leading the league in rushing.  This is a team that may be a year away from contending for a spot in the conference championship game, and we expect the Green Wave to remain a .500 team this year.

East Carolina coach Mike Houston was the Nick Saban of FCS football during his tenure at James Madison.  Prior to that, he did the inevitable and won at The Citadel.  After a 4-8 record in year one at ECU, his 2020 shortened season record of 3-6 included consecutive wins over Temple and SMU to finish the 2020 season.  This just might be the year the Pirates cross the .500 threshold and return to a bowl for the first time since 2014.  10 starters return to both sides of the ball.  Houston’s short passing game is almost an aerial version of Woody Hayes’ three yards and a cloud of dust.  By spreading the field and throwing quick passes for 3 to 7 yards with an occasional run after catch of another 10-15 yards, it can be difficult to bend and not break for any defense.

The key will be the defense.  If the more experienced stop side can shave a touchdown off its 2020 average, that might be enough for the Pirates to break even in the league.  The problem is that ECU plays Appalachian State, South Carolina, and Marshall out of conference.

SMU enjoyed a 7-3 season that ended with a Frisco Bowl bid that never came to fruition due to Covid.  With nine starters returning to the attack side, one would think that the Mustangs are poised to top their 39 points per game average.  But, the biggest reason why this team moved the ball with relative ease last year is one of the two not returning.  Former Oklahoma backup Tanner Mordecai might be a talented passer, but he isn’t going to match what Shane Buechele did in Dallas.  With an expected drop in offense, and a defense that at best will be as good as 2020, expect the Mustangs to take a step backward this year, but they could still earn a bowl bid.

Since Justin Fuente won 19 games his last two years at Memphis and then took the Virginia Tech job, pundits have predicted the downfall of the Tigers’ fortunes.  Mike Norvell replaced Fuente and guided the Tigers to a Cotton Bowl berth before he took the Florida State job two years ago.  Ryan Silverfield took over last year, and during Covid, UM’s best offensive players opted out.  Memphis still managed to put together an 8-3 record that included a bowl win over Florida Atlantic.

Now, the Tigers face an issue at quarterback as former QB Brady White gambled on the NFL Draft, went undrafted, signed a free agent contract with the Tennessee Titans, and did not make it to the preseason.  Two transfers from Power 5 schools expect to vie for the starting QB job this year.  Former Arizona Wildcat Grant Gunnell and former LSU Tiger Peter Parrish are competing for the job, and we expect Gunnell to be under center when Memphis runs its first play of the 2021 season.  Considering that he had very little help at Arizona, as the Wildcats struggled to compete in the Pac-12, Gunnell looked decent enough to believe he can guide Memphis to a possible break-even or slightly winning record.

South Florida hired former Clemson offensive coordinator Jeff Scott to try to return the Bulls’ program to where it was in the prior decade.  Unfortunately, Scott couldn’t bring any of Clemson’s All-Americans to Tampa.  After going 1-8 with the lone win coming against FCS The Citadel, there is nowhere to go but up for the Bulls this year.  The offense has a chance to be improved this year, but there’s one small problem.  Scott still does not know who will be his starting quarterback as August practices have been underway for a week.  The defense is missing several key parts from a unit that was downright weak in 2020.  Against FBS competition, USF gave up 44.1 points and more than 450 yards per game.  

USF has a difficult schedule this year with games out of conference against North Carolina State, Florida, and BYU.  Winning three games would be considered a major advancement this year.

Navy was one of the most disappointing teams last year, but Coach Ken Niumtalolo failed to get the Midshipmen ready to play to start the season due to Covid concerns.  After an opening game pasting at the hands of BYU, Navy rebounded to get to 3-2, but then they dropped their final five games, scoring just 13 points in the last three.

The 2021 picture is anything but rosy for Navy.  The offense suffered severe losses, as players that would normally come back for an extra year at other schools are starting their military commitment.  When a triple option team has to break in a new quarterback, two new slotbacks, and three new offensive linemen, it is expected that the offense will suffer a drop in production.  Navy only scored 16.6 points per game and rushed for just 178 yards per game, an all-time low in Niumatololo’s 13 years.  Now, Navy embarks on a 2021 season with its toughest schedule in many years.  Marshall, Air Force, Notre Dame, and Army represent one of the toughest out of conference slates in all of FBS football, as all four should earn bowls this year.  This looks like a rough year in Annapolis.

After several really good years under Al Golden, Steve Addazio, Matt Rhule, and Geoff Collins, Temple looked like they pulled off a minor coup when they hired former Northern Illinois head coach Rod Carey to keep the good times rolling in Philly.  After an 8-5 season in 2019, Temple looked more like the 2003 and 2004 program that was kicked out of the old Big East Conference last year.  A 1-6 season almost became an 0-7 season, but the Owls benefitted from USF mistakes to pull out a 2-point win.

One would think that the program couldn’t be worse than last year, but the Owls have major rebuilding projects on both sides of the ball this year.

On the positive side, if you can call it that, Temple was one of the most affected teams by Covid last year.  They almost didn’t play at all and only played their first game in Mid-October, losing narrowly to a Navy team playing its fourth game of the season.  2021 should be another tough one at Lincoln Financial Field.

Here is how the American Athletic media voted at the preseason conference meetings.

2021 American Athletic Conference Preseason Media Poll

		Team (First-Place Votes)	Points
	1.	Cincinnati (22)	262
	2.	UCF (2)	241
	3.	SMU	188
	4.	Houston	181
	5.	Memphis	168
	6.	Tulsa	153
	7.	Tulane	132
	8.	East Carolina	85
		Navy	85
	10.	Temple	46
	11.	South Florida	43

The PiRate Ratings are not that different.

American Athletic Conference
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Cincinnati	116.3	115.3	118.0	116.5
UCF	102.5	101.2	104.8	102.8
Houston	101.1	99.5	101.6	100.7
Tulsa	100.2	100.3	99.7	100.1
Tulane	98.8	97.5	100.6	99.0
East Carolina	95.3	94.3	96.2	95.3
SMU	94.3	95.4	95.4	95.0
Memphis	92.4	92.8	94.3	93.2
USF	91.0	89.7	90.6	90.4
Navy	90.8	90.0	90.3	90.3
Temple	80.6	82.4	81.9	81.6
AAC Averages	96.7	96.2	97.6	96.8

The PiRate Ratings are not designed to predict won-loss records for a season, as they have a use by date of the next week’s games.  Nevertheless, we issue predictions just for the fun of it.

American Athletic	Conf.	Overall
Cincinnati	8-0	12-1*
Central Florida	6-2	9-4
Houston	6-2	10-2
Tulsa	6-2	8-4
Memphis	5-3	8-4
Tulane	4-4	6-6
East Carolina	4-4	5-7
SMU	3-5	6-6
Navy	1-7	2-10
South Florida	1-7	2-10
Temple	0-8	2-10
* Cincinnati picked to win AAC Championship Game

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–September 1-5, 2016

This just for fun weekly feature turned out to be our most widely read part of the PiRate Ratings last year, because just like a broken clock is correct twice a day, somehow our money line parlays returned 40% on investment last year. People began leaving comments at our sister site, http://www.piratings.webs.com , telling us they were using these picks to wager their hard-earned money. That disappointed us a lot, since we begged them not to do this.

This is a just for fun mathematical experiment. We have no inside information; we have no specialist in Vegas placing wagers anonymously for us like other heavy hitters. In fact, if we were to announce to any book that we would like to play our picks for real, they would bend over backwards to help us do just that. So, that should tell you not to use these picks. Just read what we have to offer. If there is some way to wager just for fun with your friends, by picking X number of teams to win outright, then maybe you can use our selections.

For those not aware of the Money Line, it is a line established to wager on who you think will win the game without having to cover a pointspread. Obviously, if Michigan plays Hawaii, you would take Michigan to win. As Lee Corso says, “Not so fast my friend.” In order to take Michigan to win the game outright over Hawaii, you have to give ridiculous odds to the book. To win just $100 on this proposal, you must put up $75,000! If you want to wager just $100 on Hawaii to win the game in the biggest upset in years, you would win $25,000 if it happened!

Obviously, this is an extreme outlier. Let’s look at a closer game this week. Vanderbilt hosts South Carolina tomorrow night. The current Money Line odds are listed as Vanderbilt -185 and South Carolina +165. This means that if you believe the Commodores will win, you must put up $185 to win $100 ($285, because you get your investment money back as well). If you believe South Carolina will win this game, then by wagering $100, you stand to win $165 ($265 as you will get your $100 back as well if you win) if the Gamecocks win.

A Money Line parlay allows you to combine multiple games in order to raise your total odds. The catch is that if you bet X amount of games as one parlay wager, all X teams must win. It is considered a sucker bet to play this type of exotic wager, but we are not suckers, because we bet $0 every week. We can choose and choose parlays every week, and we will not lose a penny. We hope you will not either.

Here is our plan of attack that worked rather well last year for us. We will select a host of favorites and bunch them into parlays where the odds are better than even money for us should we win the wager. For example, let’s say that you combine three favorites into one parlay wager. Team A is listed at -250. Team B is listed at -235. Team C is listed at -225. The parlay on this three-team wager would be +188, or you would put up $100 to win $188 ($288 because as you know by now, when you win, you get back your investment money as well.)

It is not easy for three teams at -250, -235, and -225 to all win in a given week. That’s the catch. It looks so easy, and there are some nice hotels in Vegas that have been built from funds donated to them by suckers that thought it looked so easy.

Okay, now that you have been warned, let’s get started with our first Money Line Parlays of the 2016 season. We are playing just two parlays this week, and by playing, we mean like it is Monopoly–it is just a fun game.

Parlay #1

This one gives us +167 odds on our $100 fantasy investment. Yep, if we win, we receive $267 from the fake book in fake Vegas.

Tulsa over San Jose St.
Wake Forest over Tulane
LSU over Wisconsin
West Virginia over Missouri

Parlay #2

This one gives us +127 odds on our $100 fantasy investment. So, if we win just one of these two parlays, it will be a profitable week.

Colorado over Colorado St.
Temple over Army
UTEP over New Mexico St.
Minnesota over Oregon St.

Okay, that’s $200 fake invested funds into two parlays. If we lose both, we are out our imaginary $200. If we win #1 and lose #2, we will have a nice profit in week one returning $267 on the $200 wagered (33.5% ROI). If we lose #1 and win #2, we will have a so-so profit in week one returning $227 on the $200 wagered (13.5% ROI). If somehow both parlays win, we will be taking a fake vacation to an imaginary mountain lodge after pulling off a return of $494 on the $200 wagered (147% ROI).

One final warning and plea–please do not wager real money on these picks. Use them for fun only. See if you can come up with your own and see for yourself how easy hard it is.

Happy football holiday weekend.

NCAA Tournament Preview–First Four Round

Here are the opening Red-White-Blue Ratings picks for the First Four Round of the NCAA Tournament. These four games will be played in Dayton on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings.

Check back Tuesday afternoon for our bracket picking process based on our PiRate Criteria posted Monday afternoon.

 

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Red	White	Blue
Vanderbilt	Wichita St.	-1	-1	-2
Florida Gulf Coast	Fairleigh Dickinson	6	6	8
Michigan	Tulsa	1	1	2
Southern	Holy Cross	2	5	4

 

 

PiRate Ratings College Basketball Preview For February 20-21, 2016

They are in the stretch.  In less than two weeks, the first conference tournaments will begin, and three weeks from Sunday, we will know which 68 teams will play meaningful games into the third week of March.

Before we look at this weekend’s Red, White, and Blue ratings’ selections, let’s take a closer look at “The Bubble.”

As of today, we estimate that 24 teams are currently part of “The Bubble.”  Of those 24 teams, 14 of them are currently listed as “in the Dance,” and 10 are listed as NIT-Bound.

There is a catch here.  The good side of The Bubble tends to shrink as conference tournament play continues.  Whereas some teams play their way onto The Bubble and into the discussion, the number of available places for Bubble teams shrinks when a team not in the discussion gets hot and wins an automatic bid, reducing the number of spots for teams in the gray area.

As a for instance, let’s say that North Carolina State upsets three teams and wins the ACC Tournament this year.  The Wolf Pack would obviously receive an automatic bid, while the other big ACC teams already considered in the field but not as a Bubble team also receive bids.  This causes one Bubble team that is listed as in to be bumped to see their bubble burst.

Here is a look at our 24 Bubblers, showing which 14 would be drinking at the Dance bubbler today.

If you don’t know what a bubbler is, ask somebody from Wisconsin.

Team	Conf.	Overall	RPI	Vs. T50	Vs.T100	Rd RPI	L12	Seed	Weekend
Connnecticut	9-4	19-7	36	3-3	7-7	21	9-3	7	at Cincinnati
Providence	7-7	19-8	37	2-5	8-5	13	5-7	7	OFF
Syracuse	8-6	18-9	39	5-6	7-8	43	8-4	8	vs. Pitt.
Colorado	8-6	19-8	33	3-7	7-8	38	7-5	8	at UCLA
Pittsburgh	7-6	18-7	41	2-5	5-7	5	6-6	9	at Syracuse
Wisconsin	8-5	16-10	48	4-5	8-6	24	8-4	9	vs. Illinois
Seton Hall	8-5	18-7	44	1-4	7-7	41	7-5	10	at St. John’s
Michigan	9-5	19-8	54	1-3	8-8	42	7-5	10	at Maryland
Oregon St.	6-7	15-9	32	6-5	8-9	60	5-7	10	at Oregon
Texas Tech	6-7	16-9	28	5-7	7-8	61	5-7	11	at Okla. St.
Cincinnati	9-5	19-8	60	3-4	5-7	34	8-4	12	Vs. U Conn
Temple	10-3	16-9	66	4-5	6-7	96	9-3	12	at Houston
Butler	7-7	18-8	58	2-6	6-7	28	7-5	12	at Villanova
Alabama	7-6	16-9	30	4-5	7-8	35	7-5	12	vs. Miss. St.
Tulsa	9-5	17-9	45	2-4	6-8	55	9-3	1st out	at Cent. Fla.
Clemson	9-5	16-10	89	5-5	7-7	99	8-4	2nd out	vs. N. C. St.
Saint Mary’s	12-3	21-4	67	0-1	4-2	97	9-3	3rd out	at Gonzaga
Florida St.	6-8	16-10	61	2-7	7-10	68	6-6	4th out	at Va. Tech
LSU	9-4	16-10	81	3-5	6-7	50	7-5	5th out	at Tennessee
Vanderbilt	7-6	15-11	62	3-7	4-9	75	7-5	6th out	vs. Georgia
St. Bonaventure	9-4	17-7	49	2-2	4-5	71	8-4	7th out	at Dayton
Geo. Washington	8-5	19-7	46	2-3	4-4	76	7-5	8th out	at U Mass
Creighton	8-6	17-10	83	2-6	4-9	77	7-5	9th out	OFF
Washington	7-7	15-11	73	5-5	10-12	53	5-7	10thout	vs. Stanford

 

Games Scheduled for:	Saturday, February 20, 2016
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Louisville	Duke	3	4	6
North Carolina	Miami (Fla.)	6	6	3
Syracuse	Pittsburgh	6	5	7
Virginia Tech	Florida St.	-3	-3	-5
Clemson	North Carolina St.	4	5	2
Georgia Tech	Notre Dame	-2	-1	-4
Texas	Baylor	5	6	5
West Virginia	Oklahoma	4	4	6
Kansas St.	Kansas	-5	-2	-7
Iowa St.	TCU	17	18	15
Oklahoma St.	Texas Tech	-1	-2	-2
Georgetown	Xavier	-4	-3	-8
DePaul	Marquette	-2	-5	-3
Villanova	Butler	11	10	12
Rutgers	Penn St.	-6	-7	-4
Nebraska	Ohio St.	3	1	2
Indiana	Purdue	5	3	6
Washington	Stanford	7	7	8
Oregon	Oregon St.	10	8	11
UCLA	Colorado	5	3	2
South Carolina	Florida	2	2	3
Vanderbilt	Georgia	8	6	3
Alabama	Mississippi St.	6	6	7
Auburn	Ole Miss	-4	-5	-3
Tennessee	LSU	1	1	3
Texas A&M	Kentucky	1	3	-3
Arkansas	Missouri	10	10	8
Gonzaga	Saint Mary’s	6	6	6

 

Games Scheduled for:	Sunday, February 21, 2016
Home	Visitor	Red	White	Blue
Wake Forest	Boston College	9	10	8
St. John’s	Seton Hall	-12	-14	-15
Maryland	Michigan	3	8	9
Wisconsin	Illinois	11	11	10
USC	Utah	6	6	5
Washington St.	California	-9	-10	-6

Bracketology Update for Sunday Morning, March 15, 2015

Sunday, March 15, 2015.  Note to Ole Miss, Indiana, Boise St., Temple, UCLA, Miami, and even Murray St.: BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH!

The 21st Century Roman-like Senate meets today to decide your fate, and it looks like most if not all of you will be judged by a modern day conspiratorial conclave led by today’s Brutus and Cassius.  Your fate will be a stabbing in the back, and this day will launch the great Civil War known as the NCAA Tournament, where the next Augustus could be sitting in a chair in the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville this afternoon, wearing Royal Blue with the letter “K” emblazoned upon it.

We are down to just five games before the Selection Committee reveals the official brackets at 6PM EDT today.  The Sun Belt Conference Championship Game features top seed Georgia State and top challenger Georgia Southern.  If State wins, their seed could be as high as 13, while Southern would receive a 14 or 15 seed if they pull off the upset.

The Atlantic 10 Championship Game could be the most exciting of the quintet today, with Virginia Commonwealth and Dayton facing off in Brooklyn.  When these two played a couple weeks back, a missed VCU crip shot off an offensive rebound was all that separated the combatants from going to overtime.

Kentucky and Arkansas face off in the SEC Championship Game.  A Wildcat win leaves everything the same as it is now, while an Arkansas upset would only life the Razorbacks up one seeding slot if anything.

Wisconsin looks to wrap up a number one seed, as the Badgers face Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game.  The Spartans are starting to look like some of Coach Tom Izzo’s better teams that played volleyball on the backboards until the ball went in the hoop.  Wisconsin has a habit of playing 10 minutes where they could outscore not even Kentucky, but also the Atlanta Hawks, but then they have a five-minute stretch where they would be outscored by not only Maine but by La Follette High in Madison.

The fifth game is the key game for the Selection Committee, because two teams stand to be affected by the outcome.  Connecticut faces SMU in the American Athletic Conference Championship in Hartford, and the Huskies are tough to beat at home and in March.  Should U Conn come through and win another tournament title when they were a middle of the pack team, then one team currently penciled into the dance will see the eraser remove their name and send it over to the NIT Selection Committee.

It is still early on Sunday morning, so I apologize that I have not heard from all my bracketologist friends that send me their data.  They are entitled to a late Saturday night, and if they were like most of us, they were up late watching the Pac-12, Big West, and WAC Championship Games.

Before we show you our current Bracketology, here are the PiRate Ratings for today’s five games.

Team               Team                         Red    White    Blue
Kentucky         Arkansas                     14        11        15
Wisconsin       Michigan St.                  7          6          4
Connecticut     SMU                            -4        -1          1
Georgia St.     Georgia Southern        10         5          8

VCU                Dayton                           1         1         -1

The Bubble

We do not have all our bracketologists reporting this morning, but from what we do have, it all boils down to four teams.  Connecticut is the key here.  If the Huskies win today, then two of the other three in this list see their bubble burst.  If SMU defeats U Conn, then only one bubble bursts, thanks to Wyoming winning the MWC title last night.

We will offer our opinion of what information we have from the 11 geniuses that have sent in their data.

The teams in trouble are Indiana, Ole Miss, BYU, and Temple in that order.  The consensus among the group of 11 is that Indiana was ousted by Wyoming’s win last night and Ole Miss stands to go bust should Connecticut win today.  One caveat: the three most accurate of our 26 experts have yet to send in their information today.

Here are the consensus seeds according to the 11 Bracketologists we do have this morning.

1 Kentucky
1 Villanova
1 Wisconsin
1 Duke
2 Virginia
2 Arizona
2 Gonzaga
2 Kansas
3 Iowa St.
3 Maryland
3 Notre Dame
3 Baylor
4 Oklahoma
4 North Carolina
4 Northern Iowa
4 Louisville
5 Arkansas
5 West Virginia
5 Wichita St.
5 SMU
6 Utah
6 Providence
6 Georgetown
6 Butler
7 Michigan St.
7 VCU
7 San Diego St.
7 Oregon
8 Xavier
8 Iowa
8 St. John’s
8 Ohio St.
9 Cincinnati
9 N. C. St.
9 Dayton
9 Oklahoma St.
10 Davidson
10 Georgia
10 Texas
10 Colorado St.
11 LSU
11 Purdue
11 Wyoming
11 Boise St.
11 BYU
12 Temple
12 Ole Miss
12 Buffalo
12 S. F. Austin
12 Wofford
13 Valparaiso
13 Harvard
13 Georgia St.
13 UC Irvine
14 Northeastern
14 Albany
14 New Mexico St.
14 E. Washington
15 N. Dakota St.
15 Belmont
15 UAB
15 Coastal Carolina
16 Texas Southern
16 Lafayette
16 North Florida
16 Manhattan
16 Robert Morris
16 Hampton

First 4 Out
Indiana
UCLA
Miami
Murray St.

2013 Conference USA Preview

 

Conference USA takes a major hit across its bough with the defections of four schools, three of which have been to multiple bowls in recent seasons.  In their place, three teams from the Sunbelt and one team from the football defunct WAC take their place.

 

In past seasons, this league has been in contention for a BCS at-large bowl bid, as well as a major challenge to the Mountain West for top non-automatic qualifying conference.  In the new alignment, CUSA falls to just above the Sunbelt.

 

New Teams: Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Texas-San Antonio

Departed Teams: Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, S M U

 

2014 Additions: Western Kentucky arrives from the Sunbelt Conference and Old Dominion moves from FCS.  Charlotte will become a member in 2015.

 

2014 Departures: The league loses much of its prestige with Tulsa and East Carolina as well as Tulane to the AAC.

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
East Carolina	0-0	0-0	98.6	101.7	100.1
Marshall	0-0	0-0	92.8	99.8	94.3
U A B	0-0	0-0	87.6	94.4	87.9
Middle Tennessee	0-0	0-0	86.4	88.1	86.0
Southern Miss.	0-0	0-0	83.0	90.4	83.6
Florida Atlantic	0-0	0-0	82.0	81.6	80.8
Florida Int’l	0-0	0-0	74.7	79.4	74.5
West Division
Team	Conf.	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tulsa	0-0	0-0	98.1	100.8	99.4
Rice	0-0	0-0	97.0	101.6	98.5
North Texas	0-0	0-0	90.8	89.5	90.6
Louisiana Tech	0-0	0-0	87.0	90.1	86.9
U T S A	0-0	0-0	86.4	86.1	85.1
U T E P	0-0	0-0	85.1	92.1	85.6
Tulane	0-0	0-0	84.2	93.8	84.0
League Averages			88.1	92.1	88.4

 

 

Official Pre-season Media Poll
East Division
Pos.	Team	Pts	1st Place
1	East Carolina	95	11
2	Marshall	82	2
3	Middle Tennessee	70	1
4	U A B	54	0
5	Southern Miss	40	0
6	Florida Atlantic	28	0
7	Florida Int’l	23	0
West Division
Pos.	Team	Pts	1st Place
1	Tulsa	98	14
2	Rice	76	0
3	Louisiana Tech	72	0
4	U T E P	46	0
5	North Texas	39	0
6	Tulane	31	0
7	Texas-San Antonio	30	0

 

 

Official Pre-season All-CUSA Team

 

OFFENSE

QB     Rakeem Cato, Jr., Marshall

RB     Vintavious Cooper, Sr., East Carolina

RB     Darrin Reaves, Jr., UAB

OL     Jake Alexander, Jr., Tulsa

OL     Stetson Burnett, Sr., Tulsa

OL     Scott Inskeep, Jr., UTSA

OL     Nate Richards, Sr., Rice

OL     Matt Shepperd, Jr., Louisiana Tech

OL     Will Simmons, Sr., East Carolina

WR    Justin Hardy, Jr., East Carolina

WR    Ryan Grant, Sr., Tulane

WR    Tommy Shuler, Jr., Marshall

TE      Gator Hoskins, Sr., Marshall

 

DEFENSE

DL     Christian Covington, So., Rice

DL     Justin Ellis, Sr., Louisiana Tech

DL     Greg Hickman, Sr., FIU

DL     Rakeem Nunez-Roches, DL, Southern Miss

LB      Shawn Jackson, Sr., Tulsa

LB      Derrell Johnson, Sr., East Carolina

LB      Andre Kirk, Jr., Florida Atlantic

DB     Kevin Byard, So., Middle Tennessee

DB     Lorenzo Doss, So., Tulane

DB     Phillip Gaines, Sr., Rice

DB     Marco Nelson, Sr., Tulsa

 

SPECIAL TEAMS

K       Cairo Santos, Sr., Tulane

P       Tyler Williams, So., Marshall

KR     Reggie Whatley, Jr., Middle Tennessee

PR     Trey Watts, Sr., Tulsa

 

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100         A+

86-92           A

79-85           A-

72-78           B+

65-71           B

58-64           B-

51-57           C+

44-50           C

37-43           C-

30-36           D

0-29             F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

EAST DIVISION

 

Team	East Carolina Pirates
Head Coach	Ruffin McNeill
Colors	Purple and Gold
City	Greenville, NC
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	8-5
Grades
Run Offense	52
Pass Offense	81
Run Defense	69
Pass Defense	51
Ratings
PiRate	98.6
Mean	101.7
Bias	100.1
Rankings
PiRate	64
Mean	52
Bias	56
Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	8-4

 

 

Team	Marshall Thundering Herd
Head Coach	Doc Holliday
Colors	Kelly Green and White
City	Huntington, WV
2012 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	5-7
Grades
Run Offense	63
Pass Offense	73
Run Defense	48
Pass Defense	46
Ratings
PiRate	92.8
Mean	99.8
Bias	94.3
Rankings
PiRate	86
Mean	62
Bias	80
Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-4 (lose CUSA title game)

 

 

Team	U A B Blazers
Head Coach	Garrick McGee
Colors	Forest Green and Old Gold
City	Birmingham, AL
2012 Record
Conference	2-6
Overall	3-9
Grades
Run Offense	57
Pass Offense	69
Run Defense	39
Pass Defense	43
Ratings
PiRate	87.6
Mean	94.4
Bias	87.9
Rankings
PiRate	99
Mean	85
Bias	97
Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	6-6

 

 

Team	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Head Coach	Rick Stockstill
Colors	Blue and White
City	Murfreesboro, TN
2012 Record
Conference	6-2 (Sunbelt Conf.)
Overall	8-4
Grades
Run Offense	62
Pass Offense	59
Run Defense	47
Pass Defense	39
Ratings
PiRate	86.4
Mean	88.1
Bias	86.0
Rankings
PiRate	101
Mean	105
Bias	104
Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	5-7

 

 

Team	Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Head Coach	Todd Monken
Colors	Black and Gold
City	Hattiesburg, MS
2012 Record
Conference	0-8
Overall	0-12
Grades
Run Offense	42
Pass Offense	51
Run Defense	42
Pass Defense	54
Ratings
PiRate	83.0
Mean	90.4
Bias	83.6
Rankings
PiRate	112
Mean	100
Bias	111
Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8

 

 

Team	Florida Atlantic Owls
Head Coach	Carl Pelini
Colors	Blue, Red, and Silver
City	Boca Raton, FL
2012 Record
Conference	2-6 (Sunbelt Conf.)
Overall	3-9
Grades
Run Offense	38
Pass Offense	60
Run Defense	40
Pass Defense	46
Ratings
PiRate	82.0
Mean	81.6
Bias	80.8
Rankings
PiRate	113
Mean	121
Bias	115
Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	3-9

 

 

Team	Florida Int’l Golden Panthers
Head Coach	Ron Turner
Colors	Blue and Gold
City	Miami
2012 Record
Conference	2-6 (Sunbelt Conf.)
Overall	3-9
Grades
Run Offense	41
Pass Offense	55
Run Defense	31
Pass Defense	30
Ratings
PiRate	74.7
Mean	79.4
Bias	74.5
Rankings
PiRate	122
Mean	124
Bias	122
Prediction
Conference	0-8
Overall	1-11

 

 

WEST DIVISION

 

Team	Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Head Coach	Bill Blankenship
Colors	Royal Blue and Old Gold
City	Tulsa, OK
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	11-3
Grades
Run Offense	68
Pass Offense	63
Run Defense	65
Pass Defense	58
Ratings
PiRate	98.1
Mean	100.8
Bias	99.4
Rankings
PiRate	69
Mean	60
Bias	62
Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	10-3 (win CUSA title game)

 

 

Team	Rice Owls
Head Coach	David Bailiff
Colors	Blue and Gray
City	Houston
2012 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	7-6
Grades
Run Offense	57
Pass Offense	67
Run Defense	63
Pass Defense	60
Ratings
PiRate	97.0
Mean	101.6
Bias	98.5
Rankings
PiRate	74
Mean	54
Bias	67
Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	10-2

 

 

Team	North Texas Mean Green
Head Coach	Dan McCarney
Colors	Green and White
City	Denton, TX
2012 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8
Grades
Run Offense	47
Pass Offense	66
Run Defense	52
Pass Defense	55
Ratings
PiRate	90.8
Mean	89.5
Bias	90.6
Rankings
PiRate	90
Mean	103
Bias	92
Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	6-6

 

 

Team	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Head Coach	Skip Holtz
Colors	Reflex Blue and Red
City	Ruston, LA
2012 Record
Conference	4-2 (WAC)
Overall	9-3
Grades
Run Offense	43
Pass Offense	78
Run Defense	45
Pass Defense	38
Ratings
PiRate	87.0
Mean	90.1
Bias	86.9
Rankings
PiRate	100
Mean	101
Bias	100
Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	6-6

 

 

Team	Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners
Head Coach	Larry Coker
Colors	Navy Blue and Orange
City	San Antonio
2012 Record
Conference	3-3 (WAC)
Overall	8-4
Grades
Run Offense	42
Pass Offense	64
Run Defense	55
Pass Defense	43
Ratings
PiRate	86.4
Mean	86.1
Bias	85.1
Rankings
PiRate	102
Mean	112
Bias	108
Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8

 

 

Team	U T E P Miners
Head Coach	Sean Kugler
Colors	Dark Navy and Orange
City	El Paso, TX
2012 Record
Conference	2-6
Overall	3-9
Grades
Run Offense	51
Pass Offense	71
Run Defense	39
Pass Defense	37
Ratings
PiRate	85.1
Mean	92.1
Bias	85.6
Rankings
PiRate	108
Mean	94
Bias	107
Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	5-7

 

 

Team	Tulane Green Wavy
Head Coach	Curtis Johnson
Colors	Olive Green and Sky Blue
City	New Orleans
2012 Record
Conference	2-6
Overall	2-10
Grades
Run Offense	44
Pass Offense	71
Run Defense	39
Pass Defense	39
Ratings
PiRate	84.2
Mean	93.8
Bias	84.0
Rankings
PiRate	110
Mean	87
Bias	110
Prediction
Conference	1-7
Overall	3-9

 

2012 Conference USA Preview

Conference USA placed two teams in the Final Poll last year; Houston finished number 18, and Southern Mississippi came in at number 20.  Tulsa and SMU were not far from cracking the poll as well.  Just when this league appears ready to break out and become the top non-BCS conference, the weakest BCS league pirated four teams.  CUSA stays the same for one more season, but the league will lose four teams to the Big East in 2013 and pick up four new members.  The four departing teams will be Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, and SMU.  Joining the league next year will be Florida International, Louisiana Tech, North Texas, and UT-San Antonio.

 

The league will be down some this year with the loss of some great talents, especially at quarterback.  Gone are Houston’s Case Keenum, Tulsa’s G. J. Kinne, Southern Mississippi’s Austin Davis, East Carolina’s Dominique Davis, SMU’s J. J. McDermott, and Rice’s Nick Fanuzzi.  Five of the top seven receivers (three of them from Houston) are missing.

 

The Conference races should be more wide open this year.  In the East, the team picked to win the division by the media, as well as both the PiRate and PiRate Vintage Ratings, may be ineligible for the Conference USA Championship Game.  Central Florida was placed on a one year bowl ban in football, as well as additional punitive actions for the football and basketball program, but the school is appealing the ruling.  Chances are high that the Knights will be finished playing in November.

 

The league media poll and our two polls are almost exactly the same, something that has rarely occurred at the PiRate Ratings.

 

Media Poll

	CUSA East	Votes
Rank	Team	1st Place	Total
1	Central Florida	13	85
2	Southern Miss.	2	70
3	Marshall	0	58
4	East Carolina	0	56
5	U A B	0	29
6	Memphis	0	17
	CUSA West	Votes
Rank	Team	1st Place	Total
1	Houston	8	81
2	Tulsa	4	73
3	S M U	3	67
4	U T E P	0	39
5	Rice	0	35
6	Tulane	0	20

 

 

PiRate Ratings
Rank	CUSA East	PiRate
1	Central Florida	100.5
2	Southern Miss.	98.3
3	Marshall	94.3
4	East Carolina	93.6
5	U A B	81.9
6	Memphis	75.7
Rank	CUSA West	PiRate
1	Houston	105.9
2	Tulsa	104.9
3	S M U	97.9
4	U T E P	90.2
5	Rice	89.0
6	Tulane	79.9

 

 

	Vintage Ratings
Rank	CUSA East	Vintage
1	Central Florida	102
2	Southern Miss.	98
3	Marshall	96
4	East Carolina	95
5	U A B	91
6	Memphis	84
	Vintage Ratings
Rank	CUSA West	Vintage
1	Tulsa	105
2	S M U	103
3	Houston	100
4	U T E P	93
5	Tulane	89
6	Rice	86

 

 

Team	U A B  Blazers
Head Coach	Garrick McGee
Colors	Green and Gold
City	Birmingham, AL
2011 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	3-9
PiRate Rating	81.9
National Rating	111
Vintage Rating	91
National Rating	98
2012 Prediction
Conference	2-2
Overall	4-8

 

Neil Callaway’s five year record of 18-42 did not cut it in Birmingham, especially when Alabama and Auburn topped 18 wins in the last two years.  Garrick McGee takes over after running the offense at Arkansas.

 

The Blazers’ offense came alive in November last year, as UAB scored 41 points on Memphis, 34 points in an upset of Southern Miss, and 35 points on Florida Atlantic.  Quarterback Jonathan Perry started eight games and completed 58% of his passes for 2,042 yards and 10 touchdowns.  If he stays healthy, Perry should pass for more than 3,000 yards this year.

 

Perry benefits from having an experienced group of receivers returning.  The top seven pass catchers are back again this season.  Jackie Williams is a fine possession receiver, while Nick Adams, Patrick Hearn, and Jamarcus Nelson can turn a short pass into a long gain.

 

Greg Franklin is the returning starter at running back, but he will be pressed hard by former highly-rated recruit and Georgia transfer Dontavius Jackson.  McGee also plans to play Darrin Reaves and Bashr Coles.

 

The offensive line is the biggest liability on the offensive side of the ball.  Four starters must be replaced.  The lone returnee, tackle Chris Hubbard, was an honorable mention All-CUSA pick last year, but there isn’t enough talent here to make the offensive explosive enough to move UAB in to the upper half of the East standings.

 

The UAB defense gave up almost 37 points per game last year and close to 490 yards per game.  Oddly, their best defensive effort came against SEC foe Mississippi State.  With a tougher schedule that includes games at South Carolina and Ohio State, as well as conference games at Southern Miss and Houston and a home game against Tulsa, the Blazers could actually take another step back this year.  

 

The only bright spot on this side of the ball is at linebacker.  Marvin Burdette and Greg Irvin made a lot of tackles, some of them as the last defender before the opposing player broke loose for a long gain.

 

The front four is not strong enough to stop the run or rush the passer with any success.  UAB registered an anemic eight sacks last year; end Diaheem Watkins led with just 1 ½ sacks.

 

The secondary doesn’t have much chance to shine when opposing quarterbacks can read War and Peace before they throw the ball and still not worry about getting hurt.  Safety Jamie Bender made way too many tackles last year (119), and he has moved on.  No starters return to this unit, so opposing quarterbacks will have excellent dreams the night before they face UAB.

 

The good news in Birmingham is that UAB faces Troy, Memphis, Tulane, and Southeast Louisiana. As weak as the Blazers are, they can win these four games, and even if they lose one, they could pull off an unbelievable upset like they did last year when they defeated Southern Miss as a 23-point ‘dog.

 

 

Team	Central Florida Knights
Head Coach	George O’Leary
Colors	Black and Gold
City	Orlando, FL
2011 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	5-7
PiRate Rating	100.5
National Rating	59
Vintage Rating	102
National Rating	58
2012 Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-4

 

The Knights could finish first in the East this year, but it appears they will be prevented from playing in the conference title game or going to a bowl game.  Too bad for Coach George O’Leary: He has 16 starters returning from a team that should have won seven or eight games last year and could have won as many as 11.  UCF finished 5-7 despite outgaining opponents by more than 100 yards per game and outscoring opponents by nine points per game.  In their five wins, they outscored their opponents by an average score of 36-5.

 

Blake Bortles takes over starting quarterback duties full time this year.  As a part-timer last season, he completed 68% of his passes and averaged 8.7 yards per attempt.  Tyler Gabbert was not happy at Missouri, where his older brother Blaine was a star.  He transferred to Orlando and will back up Bortles.

 

Dropped passes have been a bugaboo for the receiving corps, but J. J. Worton, Quincy McDuffie, and Josh Reese still combined for 114 receptions, 1,474 yards, and seven touchdowns.

 

Brynn Harvey and Latavius Murray teamed for 1,123 yards and 11 touchdowns last year, but they will take a backseat to Miami transfer Storm Johnson.  Johnson has 1,000-yard potential.

 

The offensive line returns four starters.  Center Jordan Rae, guard Theo Goins, and tackle Phil Smith are good enough to make one of the all-conference teams.

 

The defense features three talented units.  The front seven is the best in the league this year.  Troy Davis is one of the top ends in the league.  In 2011, he made 8 ½ stops for loss, including five sacks.  Former tackle Victor Gray has moved to end, and he has all-league potential.

 

Linebackers Jonathan Davis and Troy Gray teamed up for 74 tackles.  Sophomore Terrance Plummer takes over at the vacant middle linebacker spot.

 

The secondary will benefit from a good pass rush up front.  Three starters return to the back line including a fine pair of safeties in Kemal Ishmael and Clayton Geathers.  The duo finished one-two in tackles with 81 and 67 respectively.  UCF needs to have more of a ball-hawking presence.  Cornerback A. J. Bouye is the only returning player that had more than one interception last year.

 

UCF could finish first in the East standings, but the Knights’ final year in this conference will see them home for the holidays.

 

 

Team	East Carolina Pirates
Head Coach	Ruffin McNeill
Colors	Purple and Gold
City	Greenville, NC
2011 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	5-7
PiRate Rating	93.6
National Rating	80
Vintage Rating	95
National Rating	83
2012 Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	7-5

 

Usually when a team improves defensively by 12 points and 100 yards per game, their record improves by three or four wins.  East Carolina actually won one less game.

 

Third year coach Ruffin McNeill welcomes back 15 starters, but one of the seven missing is quarterback Dominique Davis, who passed for 3,225 yards and 25 touchdowns.

 

A number one quarterback has yet to be named, but junior Rio Johnson has had the best scrimmage results so far.  Johnson saw limited action last year, completing 20 of 29 passes for 157 yards.  Cody Keith is the future here, but he is likely to see no action this season.  Shane Carden and Brad Warnick are competing with Johnson.

 

Whoever starts under center should immediately produce fat passing numbers thanks to a talented and deep pool of receivers.  As a freshman last year, Justin Hardy led the team with 64 receptions.  Fellow freshman Danny Webster grabbed 43 passes.  This now sophomore duo should combine for 125 receptions this season.  Reese Wiggins is the one real deep threat.

 

McNeill’s Air Raid (Mike Leach-style) offense actually passes the ball less than 60% of the time.  Last year, the running game let him down, as ECU rushed for just 109.1 yards per game and averaged 3.3 yards per try.  Four backs return this year, but one should emerge as a possible 1,000-yard rusher.  Reggie Bullock was on pace to approach 1,000 yards rushing before he was injured midway through the year and saw limited carries from then on.  Hunter Farr transferred from North Carolina, and he has all the tools needed to be a big time contributor.

 

Four starters and three key backups return to the offensive line, and the Pirates should see their offensive numbers improve this year, even with a new quarterback.  Look for ECU to score more than 30 points this season.

 

The defense gave up 32 points per game after yielding an incredible 44 points per game in the 2010 bowl season.  The strength of the 3-4 scheme is at linebacker, where all four 2011 starters return.  Jeremy Grove led ECU with 122 tackles.  Fellow inside backer Daniel Drake added 74 tackles.

 

Michael Brooks held his own at nose guard, and his play allowed the two inside linebackers to roam freely to the ball.  ECU is a little thin at end, and the Pirates need a better pass rusher to emerge.

 

The secondary has to holes to plug as three starters have used up their eligibility.  Safety Damon Magazu intercepted four passes last year and finished second on the team with 80 tackles.  At cornerback, Leonard Paulk and Jacobi Jenkins have considerable experience as backups and limited starting experience, but McNeill feels comfortable with these two seniors.

 

One player that will sorely be missed is placekicker Mike Barbour.  The Pirates were in field goal position when they got to the opponents 40 yard line.

 

McNeill is on the hot seat.  While his teams have been exciting to watch, they have not built upon what former coach Skip Holtz left.  ECU must win seven or more games this year or else his Air Raid offense will have to fly to another destination.

 

 

Team	Marshall Thundering Herd
Head Coach	Doc Holliday
Colors	Green and White
City	Huntington, WV
2011 Record
Conference	5-3
Overall	7-6
PiRate Rating	94.3
National Rating	78
Vintage Rating	96
National Rating	81
2012 Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	5-7

 

Marshall fans are anxious for a return to the good ole days of the 1990’s and early 2000’s.  The Thundering Herd has a cumulative record of 35-50 in the last seven years.  Third year coach Doc Holliday guided Marshall to a bowl win last year, but the Herd came up one game short in the conference race.

 

MU has a better team this year, but their schedule is still the toughest in the division.  The Herd must face Tulsa and Houston from the West.  Their third Western foe is Rice, and that game is played in Houston this year.

 

Holliday faces some rebuilding on the defensive side of the ball.  The secondary loses its top player from last year; Rashad Jackson intercepted four passes and broke up nine others.  Two transfers from Boston College, Dominick LeGrande and Okechukwu Okoroha, both started six games with the Eagles, and they make this unit deep.  However, nobody on this roster can replace Jackson.

 

It will be even more difficult to replace second round draft pick Vinny Curry.  The end finished second in the league with 11 sacks and 22 total tackles for loss.  Jeremiah Taylor has all-league potential, but he will not record 11 sacks.

 

The second line of defense actually has the most rebuilding to do as two of last year’s three starters must be replaced.  Devin Arrington is a better pass defender than run stopper.

 

The schedule starts with the short trip to Morgantown to face West Virginia.  A home game with Ohio and road game at Purdue makes it difficult for MU to become bowl eligible this year.

 

 

Team	Memphis Tigers
Head Coach	Justin Fuente
Colors	Blue and Gray
City	Memphis, TN
2011 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-10
PiRate Rating	75.7
National Rating	118
Vintage Rating	84
National Rating	114
2012 Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	4-8

 

The Tigers have been uncompetitive the last three seasons, and they bring in their third head coach in four seasons.  The new man, Justin Fuente, comes from TCU, where he helped guide the offense.  This program could hire Nick Saban to run the defense and Chip Kelly to run the offense, but if the school does not devote more resources to the program, it isn’t going to move out of the basement.

 

The Tigers start over on offense with a new plan after finishing dead last in the league in rushing offense, passing offense, and scoring offense.  The two quarterbacks scheduled to return from 2011 both transferred, and Fuente brought in Texas Tech transfer Jacob Karam to run the offense.  Karam rarely saw the field in two seasons in Lubbock, appearing in limited action in five games.  Still, he should be considered an upgrade at this position.

 

Karam does not inherit a good situation, as UM has limited talent at receiver.  Kevin Wright figures to be the primary receiver this year, and he could see his total catches double from the 36 he had last year.

 

The passing game might be more efficient if the running game could get going.  If Jerrell Rhodes can stay healthy, he has the potential to help the UM ground game get above triple digit in yardage per game for the first time in three years.

 

The offensive line will not produce any all-conference players, but the 2012 version will be better than its 2011 counterpart.  Five players have multiple-game starting experience, and they should help the Tigers improve their rushing and passing numbers.  UM may actually move up to number 11.

 

In a league where seven teams surrendered more than 30 points per game, Memphis was not too far behind on this side of the ball.  In fact, the Tigers finished ahead of UAB and Tulane in scoring defense.

 

Pass defense has the potential to be greatly improved if a credible pass rush can develop up front.  The Tigers only produced 14 sacks last year, so replacing most of the key pass rushers should not be as harmful as it could have been.  Memphis actually produced a first round NFL draft pick from its interior line.  End Dontari Poe finished with eight tackles for loss.  Opposite end Frank Trotter leaves after leading UM with five sacks.  Nose tackle Johnnie Farms can cover two gaps just by lining up.  The 310-pounder recorded 2 ½ sacks.

 

The back two lines of defense should be improved this year. The linebacker quartet features Akeem Davis, who plays tough against the run and covers well against the pass.  Davis registered 78 tackles with eight going for losses last year, and he led the Tigers with three interceptions and seven passes defended. 

 

The Tigers gave up right at 300 passing yards per game last season, and a weak pass rush was equally to blame with the secondary.  All four starters return with a year’s more experience, so the Tigers should improve just a little this year.  If any type of pass rush can emerge, this group could improve by more than a little.  Former starting quarterback Cannon Smith now patrols the deep zones at safety.  He broke up six passes last year, but he was burned a few times as well.

 

Memphis could actually begin the season 5-0 if everything went their way.  Their first five games come against UT-Martin, Arkansas State in nearby Jonesboro, Middle Tennessee, Duke in Durham, and Rice.  There is one additional winnable game when Tulane visits in November.  Of these six games, we believe Memphis can win as many as four.  That would almost give Fuente the Coach of the Year award in this conference.

 

 

Team	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Head Coach	Ellis Johnson
Colors	Black and Gold
City	Hattiesburg, MS
2011 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	12-2
PiRate Rating	98.3
National Rating	69
Vintage Rating	98
National Rating	71
2012 Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	7-6

 

 

The Golden Eagles improved steadily under former coach Larry Fedora the previous three seasons, and USM upset Houston to win the CUSA Championship last year.  Now Ellis Johnson takes over after spending four years directing South Carolina’s defense.  Johnson, a former defensive coordinator here, faces a major rebuilding project on that side of the ball.

 

The front wall of defensive coordinator Tommy West’s defense features just one player with any starting experience, but all three projected starters contributed last year.  Khyri Thornton showed flashed of greatness at one tackle spot, and he could emerge as the leader of this unit.  Nose tackle Rakeem Nunez-Roches has the perfect body for his position.  At 312 pounds, he will plug the “A-gaps.”

 

The top player on this side of the ball lines up at the bandit position (a hybrid linebacker/end) Jamie Collins is a multi-tool weapon.  He made 98 tackles, 6 ½ sacks, 19 ½ tackles for loss, eight QB hurries, and nine passes defended.  Collins is the only experienced player on the second line of defense.

 

The back line features two potential 1^st team All-CUSA players.  Cornerback Deron Wilson led the league with 17 passes defended last year (four interceptions), and safety Jacorius Cotton added seven passed defended to 98 tackles.

 

After giving up 21 points and 340 yards last year, the defense may take a minor step backwards in 2012.  We could see USM surrendering 24 points and 360 yards per game this season.

 

The offense will also experience some growing pains as the passing game has to be rebuilt.  Austin Davis will be a tough quarterback to replace, after he passed for 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns as a senior.  There is a three-way race to earn the starting nod in the opener against Nebraska.  Junior Chris Campbell leads the race, but true freshman Anthony Alford and redshirt freshman Ricky Lloyd are still in the race.  Eventually, this job will become Alford’s, as he has the tools to be another RG3.  He could become the starter after the opener, as the Golden Eagles have a bye week following their trip to Lincoln.

 

Whoever wins the QB job will have a decent set of receivers running routes, but the top two pass-catchers from last year are gone.  Slotback Tracy Lampley is speedy and can break loose for long gains as a pass receiver and as a runner.  Dominique Sullivan is a deep threat and runs well after the catch.  Senior Quentin Pierce is a sleeper; he could emerge as a key contributor as a first-time regular.

 

Two running backs figure to share the majority of the carries this season.  Desmond Johnson and Kendrick Hardy are more north-south bulldozers than breakaway threats, but a power running game forces defenses to cheat their safeties up a bit.

 

Experienced talent returns to the offensive line.  Four starters are back, and all four could vie for all-conference recognition.  Center Austin Quattrochi has an NFL future.

 

One late change involves the offensive coordinator’s position.  Steve Buckley has moved up to OC, while Rickey Bustle has moved down to running backs coach due to illness.

 

Southern Miss will have some excellent days moving the ball, but they will not be as consistent as they were in 2011.  Look for about 28 points and 400 total yards per game.

 

With Central Florida more than likely ineligible, Southern Miss may repeat as East Champs almost by default.  The Eagles host East Carolina and Marshall, the two teams that have a fighting chance to contend.  We see USM winning both games.

 

 

Team	Houston Cougars
Head Coach	Tony Levine
Colors	Red and White
City	Houston, TX
2011 Record
Conference	8-0
Overall	13-1
PiRate Rating	105.9
National Rating	44
Vintage Rating	100
National Rating	64
2012 Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	8-4

 

New Houston coach Tony Levine hopes that history can repeat itself.  Back in 1990, Houston had to replace Heisman Trophy winner Andre Ware, and David Klingler stepped in and passed for more yards than Ware had.

 

That’s wishful thinking for Levine, because nobody is going to top the yardage produced by Case Keenum last year.  Keenum finished the season with 5,631 yards to shatter the all-time Division 1 career passing mark.  His 48 touchdowns to just five interceptions and 71% completion rate were mind-boggling as well.  Keenum did not pad those numbers with a bunch of “dink and doink” passes two yards away.  He showed remarkable accuracy throwing the deep routes as well.

 

David Piland is not an untested replacement.  He actually replaced Keenum once before.  When Keenum was injured in 2010, Piland started the final eight games and passed for 2,600+ yards with a TD/Int ratio of 24/14.  Expect Houston to still be among the nation’s passing leaders, but the drop in yards per game could top 100.

 

Also gone are three highly talented receivers that took 272 receptions worth 3,939 yards and 37 touchdowns.  That is too much talent to replace for any team.  Fifth year senior Ronnie Williams caught just 16 passes, but he should at least triple that number as the new starting H-back.  Mark Roberts and Chance Blackmon figure to be the starting wideouts, while Daniel Spencer gets the nod at the other inside receiver spot.  This trio combined for just 19 receptions last year.

 

Charles Sims averaged an eye-popping 7.5 yards per rush last year, which was better than any other back in the nation that was not the pitch option at Army, Navy, or Georgia Tech.  Sims carried the ball just nine times per game, and he will see more action this season (and thus his average per carry will fall).

 

Thanks to the return of almost all 2011 contributors, the offensive line will be a team strength.  Guard Jacolby Ashworth should be a 1^st team All-CUSA player this year.

 

The defense was overlooked last year, but UH played tough on that side of the ball.  The stats didn’t look as good as other teams, but they had to defend for 75 scrimmage plays per contest, whereas Central Florida’s defense only had to defend 61 plays.

 

New defensive coordinator Jamie Bryant switched Houston to a 4-3 alignment in hopes of improving against the run.  Factoring out sacks, the Cougars gave up 4.7 yards per run!  Tackle Dominic Miller should benefit from the switch.  Look for his tackles to increase by 50%.  Ends Kelvin King and Eric Braswell teamed for 73 tackles last year, but neither was a sack monster.

 

UH will miss two talented linebackers in Marcus McGraw and Sammy Brown (234 tackles, 16 sacks, 44 ½ tackles for loss).  However, there is returning quality in Derrick Mathews and Phillip Steward.  Steward is a dual threat linebacker (tough vs. run and pass), while Mathews is not far behind talent-wise.

 

The back line of defense returns three starters and four top reserves from last year, so it should be in great shape.  Cornerback D. J. Hayden is the best of the bunch; he intercepted a couple of passes and broke up 11 more.

 

Even with all the losses sustained by this team, Houston figures to contend for the CUSA West Division crown.  The Cougars play at SMU in October and host Tulsa in November.  Road trips to East Carolina and Marshall could be tricky, and a loss in either one could be enough to finish second or third in the division. 

 

 

Team	Rice Owls
Head Coach	David Bailiff
Colors	Dark Blue and Gray
City	Houston, TX
2011 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8
PiRate Rating	89.0
National Rating	97
Vintage Rating	86
National Rating	112
2012 Prediction
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-10

 

Since their outstanding 10-3 season in 2008, Rice has won just 10 of 36 games.  Sixth year coach David Bailiff will not end the malaise this season, as he faces heavy graduation losses on both sides of the ball.

 

On offense, the Owls were very inconsistent last year.  Quarterback Taylor McHargue had good games and bad games, as he could not hold onto the starting job the last two seasons.  McHargue completed 57.5% of his passes with a TD/Int ratio of 8/5.  He only averaged 6.2 yards per pass attempt.  Redshirt freshman Driphus Jackson is more of a running quarterback, but he could see considerable time if McHargue struggles again.

 

Rice has depth at receiver this year with the return of three receivers plus the addition of a potential star who could line up just about anywhere on the offense.  That star is Sam McGuffie.  McGuffie missed most of 2011 due to injury, and his healthy return could be worth three or four points per game.  Look for him to line up in the slot, but he could return to the backfield as well.  It wouldn’t be shocking to see him even take some snaps in a wild owl formation.  Tight end Luke Willson could top 40 receptions this year.  The 6-5 senior caught 29 passes last year.

 

Running back Charles Ross looks to rebound from injury as well.  The junior can bulldoze his way for an extra yard or two on power runs, but he is not going to sweep around the flank for long gains.

 

The offensive line is in shambles with only one full-time starter returning.  Guard Drew Carroll could potentially make an all-conference team in a year or two, but he is the senior statesman of this unit as a sophomore.

 

The Rice defense gave up 460+ yards per game last year, and prospects are not all that good for any improvement in 2012.  In fact, things could get worse if the offense cannot sustain time-consuming drives.

 

The Owls will use a 4-2-5 defense as their base this year, and the five defensive backs are the strength on this side.  Bryce Callahan is the big star on the defense.  The cornerback tied for the conference lead with six interceptions last year, and he batted away nine others.  Kat Safety Paul Porras and free safety Corey Frazier combined for 137 tackles last year.

 

The linebacker tandem is still up for grabs in August.  Former highly recruited Kyle Prater did not live up to his press clippings when he transferred here from LSU.  He made just 19 tackles and just one for a loss.  He competed with James Radcliffe at the weak side spot, while Cameron Nwosu tries to hold on to his starting strong side spot.  Nwosu led the team with 108 tackles, but he is being pushed hard by two others.

 

There will be three new starters up front, and nobody on this roster can adequately replace Scott Solomon at end.  Solomon led the Owls with 8 ½ sacks and 13 ½ tackles for loss last year.  Jared Williams is the lone holdover from this unit.

 

The Owls non-conference schedule is tricky.  After opening at home with UCLA, which should be a loss, they visit Kansas and Louisiana Tech, before hosting Marshall.  It isn’t impossible that they could be 0-4 when they play Houston at Reliant Stadium.  They follow that game with a visit to Memphis, and still, the Owls could be winless when they play UT-San Antonio on homecoming.

 

It is going to be a long year for the Owls.  They should be competitive in about half their games, but they may only win about two.

 

 

 

Team	S M U  Mustangs
Head Coach	June Jones
Colors	Crimson and Blue
City	Dallas, TX
2011 Record
Conference	5-3
Overall	8-5
PiRate Rating	97.9
National Rating	70
Vintage Rating	103
National Rating	53
2012 Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	7-5

 

 

June Jones has no trouble recruiting quarterbacks to pilot his run and shoot offense.  If he cannot pull them out of the high school ranks, he gets them from other colleges.  He has a potential 1^st team all-conference player in Texas transfer Garrett Gilbert.

 

Gilbert was pressed into duty against Alabama in the 2009-10 National Championship Game, and he showed he was up to the task as a freshman.  He was blamed for Texas’s downturn in 2010, but he was not the reason why the Longhorns did not win.  Expect Gilbert to complete about 60-62% of his passes and gain around 3,300 yards.

 

Gilbert will have two exceptional receivers to hook up with this year.  Darius Johnson returns after leading the Mustangs with 79 receptions and 1,118 yards.  Der’ricck Thompson caught 30 passes good for 411 yards in eight starts.

 

Keeping defenses honest is the top running back in the league. Zach Line missed three games and still rushed for 1,224 yards and 17 touchdowns. 

 

The offensive line is the big question this year.  All five starters must be replaced, two of whom were NFL draft choices.  Blocking for the run and shoot is not the easiest thing in the world, and guard Blake McJunkin is the only returnee on par with what was lost.

 

The Mustangs have improved their defensive numbers every year under Jones.  If you follow the linear progression, SMU is due to give up about 21 points and 330 yards per game this year.  If they do, they will be at the top of the CUSA West Standings.

 

The 3-4 alignment will revolve around the quartet at linebacker, where all four starters return this year.  Ja’Gared Davis and Taylor Reed were the top two tacklers last year.  The dynamic duo teamed up for 184 stops, 9 ½ sacks, 21 ½ total stops for loss, and 11 passes defended.  Cameron Rogers is a potential star here as well.

 

The front line features a giant in Margus Hunt.  The 6-8, 295 end dumped enemy quarterbacks three times last year in a designated pass rush role.  Nose tackle Torlan Pittman made 37 tackles, with six going for losses.

 

The secondary was more of a liability last season, and it is a minor question as 2012 starts.  The best player from this unit has moved on to the NFL, so SMU could be vulnerable against the pass. 

 

SMU benefits in league play by getting to host both Houston and Tulsa.  Additionally both games follow relatively easy games the week before.  The Mustangs have a tough out-of-league schedule with games at Baylor and at home against TCU and Texas A&M.  They also draw Central Florida and Southern Miss out of the East, so they could lose enough games to finish in second place even if they beat Houston and Tulsa.  We think this team will fall one game short of taking the West flag, but they will be bowl eligible for the fourth consecutive season.

 

Team	Tulane Green Wave
Head Coach	Curtis Johnson
Colors	Olive Green and Sky Blue
City	New Orleans, LA
2011 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-11
PiRate Rating	79.9
National Rating	113
Vintage Rating	89
National Rating	103
2012 Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	3-9

 

It has been 10 years since Tulane last had a winning season.  There are no J. P. Losman’s or Mewelde Moore’s on this current Green Wave edition, so it will be at least 11 years after this season.

 

Curtis Johnson is the new head coach.  He comes from the New Orleans Saints via the Miami Hurricanes.  Johnson faces a tough uphill battle in the Crescent City.

 

What had the makings for an improved defense has quickly eroded into another fine mess.  TU had one of the top defensive players in the league in middle linebacker Trent Mackey (145 tackles, 4 ½ sacks, 14 TFL).  Mackey was just suspended indefinitely following his arrest.  Mackey is worth about 2 ½ to 3 points to the Green Wave.

 

Three additional players expected to contribute and contend for starting spots on the defensive side will not be around this year, including expected starting end Michael Pierce.

 

What do these defections leave in the front seven?  Not much.  Sam Linebacker Darryl Farley finished a distant second to Mackey with 69 tackles.  Matthew Bailey made just 33 tackles from his weakside linebacker position.

 

Up front, end Austen Jacks is the sole returning starter.  Jacks made 32 tackles with 2 ½ sacks in 2011.

 

The back line of defense suffered no late scratches, and it is the only area of the defense that is not a major concern.  Cornerback Ryan Travis is now the top player on the stop side.  Travis intercepted four passes and knocked away six more last year.  Safety Shakiel Smith finished third on the team with 68 tackles, but he needs to step up in pass coverage.

 

The TU defense gave up 37.5 points and 410 yards of offense last year.  Without Mackey, those numbers could be worse. 

 

There is a glimmer of hope on the other side of the ball, as Tulane has some decent offensive talent.  Quarterback Ryan Griffin will benefit from the implementation of the new pro-set offense.  Griffin completed 55.6% of his passes for 2,502 yards and 13 touchdowns last year, but he needs to cut down on his 10 interceptions.

 

Orleans Darkwa came close to rushing for 1,000 yards for the second year in a row, and maybe the third time is the charm.  Darkwa scored 13 touchdowns and proved to be a receiving threat with 37 receptions.

 

Darkwa was the number four receiver on this team, and the good news is that the three players with more receptions all return.  The best news is that neither of the three will be the best receiver this year.  Ryan Grant returns after missing almost all of last year with a hernia.  Add Grant to Wilson Van Hooser, Justyn Shackleford, and Xavier Rush, and TU should have a much improved passing game this year.

 

The offensive line is a little inexperienced with just two starters returning, but there should not be much drop-off.  Tackle Eric Jones has all-conference potential.

 

Tulane averaged just 21 points and 340 yards per game last year.  We expect the Green Wave to run for 130 and pass for 230 yards this year and score about 24 points per game. 

 

Home games with Ole Miss, Louisiana-Monroe, UAB, and Rice coupled with road games against Louisiana and Memphis give TU a chance to win more games this season than last.  Three wins would be a 50% improvement.

 

 

Team	Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Head Coach	Bill Blankenship
Colors	Blue and Gold
City	Tulsa, OK
2011 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	8-5
PiRate Rating	104.9
National Rating	49
Vintage Rating	105
National Rating	43
2012 Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	10-3

 

It can be tough being number three in your state, but Tulsa has been successful and exciting in recent years and with three coaches.  In the past five seasons, the Golden Hurricane have averaged 8.8 wins per year, 38.4 points per game, and 494 yards per game.

 

TU relied on a Texas transfer the previous three seasons, and now they turn to a Nebraska transfer.  Cody Green takes over at quarterback for G. J. Kinne.  Green completed 54% of his passes in two seasons at Nebraska (17 games).  If Green can live up to his potential, the TU offense will shine once again, because the Hurricane are loaded at back and receiver.

 

The receiving corps ranks at the top of the league.  Three players have the ability to turn any pass into a long gain.  Willie Carter and Bryan Burnham both made the 2^nd team all-conference list last year after teaming for 115 catches and 1,718 yards.  Jordan James added 31 receptions.  Out of the backfield, Trey Watts caught 31 passes.

 

Watts teams with Ja’Terian Douglas to form the best one-two running back punch in the league.  Both topped 880 yards rushing last year.  Watts is the more consistent of the two, but Douglas is the game-changer.

 

The offensive line faces a minor rebuilding effort.  Center Trent Dupy and guard Stetson Burnett will form the nucleus, and they are all-conference quality.

 

Coach Bill Blankenship’s offense could easily top last year’s results (33.1 points/440 yards).  Whether the defense can improve on its numbers will determine if the Hurricane can get back to the CUSA Championship Game for the first time since 2008.  TU gave up 27.3 points and 415 yards per game last year, but those numbers were skewed by the fact that they faced Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and Houston.  In the other nine games, TU gave up 17.8 points and 352 yards per game.

 

The defensive line will show improvement this year with the return of three regulars.  Tackles Derrick Jackson and Daeshon Bufford should keep opponents from running up the middle, while end Cory Dorris should plug the off-tackle hole on his side.

 

Shawn Jackson anchors the second line of defense.  The Will linebacker paced TU with 4 ½ sacks, and he recorded 11 total tackles for loss.  DeAundre Brown returns to the Cane position (hybrid linebacker/safety) after missing nine games to injury last year.

 

Tulsa is loaded on the back line with the best secondary in the league.  Bandit safety Dexter McCoil and free safety Marco Nelson could both make the all-conference team this year.  McCoil tied for the conference lead with six interceptions and knocked away seven others. 

 

You can call the 2012 “A Tale of Two Schedules” for Tulsa.  The Hurricane open with Iowa State, Tulane, Nicholls State, Fresno State, UAB, Marshall, UTEP, and Rice, and it is possible they will be 8-0 and ranked in the top 20 heading into their week off.  They get two weeks to prepare for the final four games: at Arkansas, at Houston, Central Florida, and at SMU.  What a way to end a season!  We think Tulsa may drop one of those first eight but win two of those final four and get back to the CUSA Championship Game.

 

 

Team	U T E P  Miners
Head Coach	Mike Price
Colors	Orange and Navy
City	El Paso, TX
2011 Record
Conference	2-6
Overall	5-7
PiRate Rating	90.2
National Rating	94
Vintage Rating	93
National Rating	90
2012 Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8

 

After guiding the Miners to consecutive 8-4 seasons, Coach Mike Price has suffered through six seasons of near misses where UTEP has been a one or two wins away from returning to a bowl ever since.  The end of the line could be near for Price, and we don’t see him righting the ship this season.  The schedule is much too difficult to find six winnable games.

 

Price likes to throw the ball all over the field, and he has a decent quarterback with experience returning for his senior year.  Nick Lamaison was slowed by injuries last year, missing four games.  He returned in the final month, and UTEP averaged 238 passing yards in those games (but won only one of five).

 

Mike Edwards and Jordan Leslie give Lamaison two credible targets.  Edwards led the team with 50 receptions and 657 yards last year.  Kevin Perry should provide more offense at tight end this year.

 

Nathan Jeffrey started just one game last year, but he will be the regular running back.  Jeffrey may not be a 1,000-yard threat, but he is a fine run-pass combo back.  He may even be more dangerous coming out of the backfield on passing plays.

 

An improved offensive line will make the UTEP offense succeed this year if it can stay healthy.  Center Eloy Atkinson and Tackles James Nelson and Brander Craighead missed spring practice nursing injuries.

 

A vulnerable defense is the reason UTEP will not be able to get above .500 this season.  The Miners have some talent, but they have holes everywhere on the stop side. 

 

End Horace Miller is the top player in the trenches.  Miller led UTEP with five sacks and eight tackles for loss.  Senior Greg Watkins inherits the other end spot after he started five times in 2011.

 

There will be a drop in talent at linebacker following the graduation of leading tackler Jeremy Springer as well as Isaiah Carter.  Josh Fely is the lone holdover.

 

The secondary returns two starters, neither of whom will make even the honorable mention of the all-conference selections.  Safety DeShawn Grayson is the leading returning tackler (67), and if he leads the team this year, it will be bad news.

 

UTEP’s schedule includes non-conference games with Oklahoma and Wisconsin, as well as a road trip to Ole Miss.  1-3 is probably the best they can hope outside of league play, and the Miners are not capable of going 5-3 in the league.  So, it looks like another subpar season, possibly the last for Price.

 

Coming Wednesday afternoon/evening: A look at the Big East Conference.  Should it still be a BCS league?

2011 Conference USA Preview

2011 Conference USA Preview

 

The Mountain West and Western Athletic Conferences have placed teams in BCS bowls and had teams ranked in the top three.  Conference USA has not been able to break through, but at least their champion finally won a bowl game over an SEC team, when Central Florida beat Georgia last year.

 

2011 should be an interesting year in CUSA, especially in the West Division.  Three teams should contend for the division flag.  In the East Division, we see two teams contending.  Two teams have a chance to run the table thanks to avoiding any powerhouse non-conference opponents.

 

East

Southern Mississippi has consistently fielded good but not great teams in the 21^st Century, but the Golden Eagles have not won the conference title since 1999.  Fourth year coach Larry Fedora has his best team yet, and 2011 could find USM playing in the CUSA Championship Game for just the second time.

 

Austin Davis returns at quarterback, and the senior should become the all-time leading passer in Hattiesburg as early as the opening game of the season.  Davis completed 63% of his passes for 3,100+ yards and a terrific 20/6 TD/Int ratio last year.  Davis rushed for 452 and 10 big scores to give him a total of 30 accounted for.

 

Davis’s top pass catcher, Kelvin Bolden, returns to the fold this season after grabbing 46 passes for 722 yards and six scores.  Quentin Pierce should top 50 receptions after finishing with 38 in an injury-plagued season.

 

The Golden Eagles have a two-headed monster at running back.  Starter Kendrick Hardy and key backup Desmond Johnson combined for more than 1,500 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns in 2010.

 

The offensive line returns three starters, none of whom are big stars.  USM surrendered just 17 sacks last year, but a lot of that had to do with Davis’s mobility. 

 

The Golden Eagles scored 37 points per game last year, and there is no reason to think they cannot approach or top 40 points per game this season.

 

Southern Miss lost five games in 2010 because their defense could not match their offense’s production.  The Golden Eagles gave up 30 points per game.  The run defense was not all that bad; in fact, it was quite good, giving up just 113 rushing yards per game.  Five of the front six starters return this year, including linebacker Korey Williams, who recorded 14 ½ stops behind the line last year.  End Cordarro Law led USM with six sacks, and he added four QB hurries.

 

The secondary has room for improvement after giving up 243 yards through the air last year.  Three of last year’s five starters will not be around this year, so this unit could even take a minor step backwards.

 

The Golden Eagles have a big weapon in placekicker Danny Hrapmann.  Hrapmann was a finalist for the Lou Groza Award after connecting on all 55 of his extra point attempts and 26 of 31 field goal attempts with a long of 54 yards.

 

While this team may be no more talented than any of the previous 10 Golden Eagle squads, the schedule could not be any more beneficial.  The toughest non-conference game is at Virginia, and the toughest two conference games are at home.  If USM can win at Virginia and at Navy, they have a chance to run the table in the regular season.

 

Trivia question: Who is the only team to make it to a bowl game after giving up 44 points and more than 475 total yards per game?  Do you think this is a trick question and that no team has ever done that?  Think again.  East Carolina gave up those numbers and still went to the Military Bowl in 2010. 

 

The Pirates won because they outscored opponents last year.  They beat Tulsa 51-49; Southern Miss 44-43; and UAB 54-42.  They also lost to Navy 76-35 and Maryland 51-20.

 

In the second year of the Air Raid offense, look for ECU’s already scary offensive numbers to get even scarier.  Quarterback Dominique Davis just missed the 4,000-yard passing mark, and he tossed 37 touchdown passes last year.  He will certainly miss Dwayne Harris and his 101 receptions from last year, but he welcomes the return of Lance Lewis, who caught 89 passes for 1,116 yards and 14 touchdowns (tied for the lead in the conference).

 

The running game loses its top two rushers from last season, but welcomes junior college transfer Reggie Bullock and freshman Alex Owah.  The success of the running game has more to do with forcing defenses into using five and even six defensive backs.

 

The offensive line is a bit of a concern with the loss of three starters, including two that made All-CUSA teams last year.  Look for the number of sacks to go up from last year’s ultra-low of 15 out of 647 possibilities.

 

ECU will score a ton of points this season, but the offense may not be as consistent as 2010.  We believe the Pirates can be as successful as last season thanks to a big improvement on the other side of the ball.

 

Where is there to go but up for this defense?  ECU gave up 227 rushing and 252 passing yards per game.  That put them in a two-team league with New Mexico!

 

The Pirates will use a 3-4 defense this season.  Coach Ruffin McNeill will blitz his linebackers much more this season in an attempt to put more pressure on the quarterbacks.  The Pirates only recorded 15 sacks and very few hurries. 

 

Up front, the new three-man line is stocked with veterans, but nose guard Michael Brooks is a bit undersized for a 3-4 scheme.  ECU may be vulnerable to runs between the tackles and quick traps.

 

The secondary will be the strength of the defense. Emanuel Davis and Derek Blacknall are decent cover corners, while Bradley Jacobs plugs the deep half as good as any safety in the league.  Davis will miss the first game against South Carolina due to a suspension for public drunkenness and resisting arrest (Wide receiver Michael Bowman also was suspended).

 

ECU’s schedule is difficult, and the Pirates will have a difficult time improving upon last year’s 6-6 regular season record.  After a probable 0-2 start, the home game with UAB on September 24 will be a must-win game.  After that game, there are only three cupcakes on the schedule.

 

Central Florida won the conference championship and then upset Georgia in the Liberty Bowl to finish 11-3 last year.  Coach George O’Leary can put that on his resume.  He may not want to include this season’s results though, because his excellent defense was decimated by graduation.  Gone are seven starters and several key reserves from a team that gave up just 17 points and 315 yards per game.  To make matters worse, defensive coordinator Dave Huxtable replaced Dave Doeren as Wisconsin’s DC.

 

All is not lost on the defensive side of the ball.  The secondary should be fine with cornerback Josh Robinson being one of the four returning starters.  Robinson was a 1^st team all-conference player last year after intercepting a couple of passes and batting away a baker’s dozen passes.  Free safety Kemal Ishmael led the Knights in tackles.

 

At linebacker, Josh Linam is strong against the run and the pass, but the two teammates lining up with him in the second line of defense are raw and inexperienced.  Up front, only one starter returns, and that is tackle Victor Gray.  However, Darius Nall returns after serving as the designated pass rusher.  Coming in on passing situations, Nall led the team with 8 ½ sacks and another 14 QB hurries.  Look for Nall and end Troy Davis to team for 15-20 sacks this year.

 

The UCF offense gained less than 375 yards per game but still topped 32 points per game, thanks to a great field position advantage given to it by the defense.  Expect the offensive production to suffer some this year due to the weaker defense.

 

Quarterback Jeff Godfrey will not be confused for Case Keenum, but the sophomore signal caller should top 2,500 yards through the air this year and make few mistakes.  He also can run the ball, as his  nearly 700 rushing yards (factoring out sacks) proves.  Godfrey will have an entirely new set of receivers after the top three from last year are gone.  With the return of all the key running backs, UCF will run to set up the pass.  With running backs Latavius Murray and Ronnie Weaver, the Knights have three players (Godfrey included) capable of topping 100 rushing yards in a game.

 

The offensive line lost its top blocker in tackle Jah Reid, but with three starters back, it should be in decent shape.

 

UCF has a tougher schedule than Southern Miss, and that could prevent the Knights from challenging for the division title.

 

U A B was so close last year.  What turned out to be a 4-8 season could have been 8-4, but the Blazers lost a lot of close games.  They came up short four times, losing to Florida Atlantic by a point, Tennessee by a field goal in double overtime, Mississippi State by five, and Rice by five.

 

This could be the year the Blazers break through and challenge for a bowl bid, but the schedule maker did the team no favors with three tough non-conference games.

 

Quarterback Bryan Ellis almost made UAB fans forget Joe Webb last year.  Ellis threw 25 touchdown passes while completing 56+% of his passes for 2,940 yards.  He was not the runner Webb was.

 

Two of Ellis’s favorite receiver targets return this season.  Patrick Hearn finished second on the team with 536 receiving yards and four touchdowns, while Jackie Williams caught 30 balls.  Running back Pat Shed is a great dual threat.  Aside from his 847 rushing yards, he came out of the backfield to grab a team-leading 47 catches.

 

The offensive line will be the strength of the offense this season.  Four starters return from last year, and all of them should contend for all-league honors.  The fifth offensive linemen has seen considerable action and has started in the past, so this unit will be top notch.

 

UAB averaged better than 26 points per game and almost 425 yards per game, but the Blazers could have averaged more than 30 if they had been able to hang onto the ball better.  We think they will this year and will average at least 28 points per game.

 

As good as the offense should be, the defense should improve even more.  The front four needs to be rebuilt, but the back seven are experienced, talented, and deep. 

 

In the trenches, tackle Elliott Henigan is the leader of the unit.  Henigan led UAB with 15 ½ total tackles for loss.  At 6-4, he was able to get his hands up and knock away five passes last year.

 

Marvin Burdette could become a 1^st team All-CUSA player this year.  He led the Blazers with 114 tackles with three sacks.  In the secondary, safety Jamie Bender will try to earn a second 1^st team All-CUSA award.

 

This is not a great defense, but it will be better than last year and surrender less than 30 points per game for the first time in five years.  UAB has a chance to get to six wins, but it will not be easy with out-of-conference games at Florida and Troy as well as a home game with Mississippi State.

 

Marshall is another team that narrowly missed bowl eligibility in 2010.  The Thundering Herd came up one win short for first year coach Doc Holliday.  An overtime loss to in-state rival West Virginia was the difference.

 

2011 does not look like the year Marshall will return to greatness.  Chad Pennington and Byron Leftwich are not eligible.  Instead, a true freshman could end up starting at quarterback.  Rakeem Cato will battle sophomore A. J. Graham for the starting nod.  Whoever starts will have one of the best receivers in the league running underneath those passes.  Aaron Dobson is as quick as a hiccup, and he can take a five yard slant pass and turn it into a 75-yard touchdown.  Dobson averaged almost 16 yards per reception last year.  Look for Troy Evans to contribute more this year.

 

Marshall could not run the ball last year, finishing with less than 100 yards in eight games.  Another true freshman, Travon Van, could step in and start from day one.  Martin Ward and Essray Taliafero are sure to see playing time at back as well.

 

The offensive line will need to be rebuilt after three starters departed.  Two of the returnees, tackle Ryan Tillman and guard C. J. Wood could contend for all-conference accolades.

 

Marshall averaged less than 21 points per game and only 314 yards per game, and it could be hard to improve on those numbers with a tough non-conference slate of opponents (West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Ohio).

 

Defensively, the Herd is in better shape.  It all starts up front, where Marshall has the best defensive end in the league.  Vinny Curry introduced his body to enemy quarterbacks a dozen times last year, while forcing them to hurry throws another 16 times.  He added six other tackles behind the line.  Curry should be an early draft choice in the 2012 NFL draft.

 

Three experienced veterans will line up at linebacker.  Kellen Harris, Tyson Gale, and Devin Arrington will not appear on the all-conference 1^st team, but the trio is more than capable.

 

Things are not so optimistic in the secondary.  What was going to be a major asset has turned into a minor liability due to a situation at the safety positions.  2010 starter Donald Brown was dismissed and then projected starter D. J. Hunter suffered a knee injury and may not be ready to plug the strong safety position.  When Marshall conducted its first scrimmage, former wide receiver Raheem Waiters was running with the first team.  Five other safeties are ailing, and it is unsure who will start at the free safety position against West Virginia on September 4.

 

Too many freshmen and sophomores having to play do not bode well for the Thundering Herd.  This team will be exciting to watch, but they will experience growing pains.  Holliday’s recruiting efforts will begin to pay off, but not this season.  Marshall may take a small step backwards in 2011 before challenging for a bowl berth next year.

 

Memphis has fallen on hard times.  The Tigers finished 2-10 in 2009 and 1-11 last year.  Prospects are not bright for 2011, and second year coach Larry Porter could very well see his career record move to 2-22.

 

The offense never got in a groove at any point last year.  The Tigers averaged just 14 points and 285 yards per game.  The offensive line could not protect inexperienced quarterbacks that could not read defenses fast enough.  None of the backs reminded anybody of DeAngelo Williams.  To make matters worse, the one of the two real stars on last year’s offense, wideout Jermaine McKenzie, has used up his eligibility.

 

At least the other big play receiver returns, and that is where Memphis will try to revive its offense.  Marcus Rucker will see a lot of double teams this year after catching 41 passes and averaging 17.2 yards and scoring eight times (Memphis only scored 19 touchdowns).  Former Alabama wideout Keiwone Malone is trying to gain immediate elibility due to family health issues, but the NCAA will probably not rule before the end of August.  If he is eligible, the receiving corps could become an asset.

 

Quarterback was a major problem last year, as it has been for several years.  Memphis seems to have a jinx here with frequent injuries at this spot.  Andy Summerlin, a juco transfer appears to have the edge over former Wake Forest QB Skylar Jones and true freshman Taylor Reed, but if fate holds out, all three may have to see the field this year.  None of the trio is going to star, because the offensive line will still be a major liability. 

 

Jerrell Rhodes could be a diamond in the rough at running back.  He rushed for 469 yards last year, and he could be ready to break out and have a big year.  But, he will need help, and the holes just may not open for him. 

 

Only one starting lineman returns this season, but at least he was the best of the quintet last year.  The Tigers will rebuild around tackle Ronald Leary.

 

The defense was equally to blame for Memphis’s 1-11 record.  Opponents scored 40 points per game and gained 461 yards per game.  Six starters return, but eight reserves that saw considerable playing time return as well.

 

The defensive line could develop into something memorable.  Tackles Frank Trotter and Dontari Poe could be the best tandem at this position.  They teamed for 23 total tackles for loss last year.

 

Troubles begin once you get past the front four.  Memphis will have trouble stopping the excellent bevy of CUSA quarterbacks this year.  Last year. the Tigers gave up 289 passing yards per game and allowed enemy passers to complete better than 65% of their passes.  To make matters worse, the best pass defender has used up his eligibility, and the second best transferred after Spring practice.

 

The schedule gives Memphis a chance to win at least one game.  A September home game against FCS school Austin Peay should be a nice win.  Memphis does not play UTEP from the West, and we do not see the Tigers winning in league play this year.

 

West

Tulsa might have been our choice to break through and become the first CUSA team to make it to a BCS bowl game this year, but two factors prevented us from going out on that limb.  First, former coach Todd Graham left for Pittsburgh, leaving a rookie, Bill Blankenship, as the new coach.  More importantly, the Golden Hurricane open the season at Oklahoma and then host Oklahoma State two weeks later.  They then make a trip to the field of blue to play Boise State; no CUSA team will play in a BCS Bowl with a 10-3 record, even if the three losses are to top 10 teams.

 

Tulsa returns 10 starters from the fifth best offense in the nation.  TU averaged 41 points and more than 500 yards per game last year, and there is no reason to expect much drop-off this year.  It all starts at quarterback in the spread formation, and G. J. Kinne is a magician.  The former Texas QB passed for 3,650 yards and 31 touchdowns in 2010, and he led the team with 561 rushing yards (more than 750 when factoring out sacks). 

 

As good as Kinne is, his offensive line is the real strength of this team.  All five of these prized possessions return for an encore, and three could earn 1^st Team All-CUSA honors.  Center Trent Dupy, guard Clint Anderson, and Tackle Tyler Homes will all be watched by NFL scouts this year.

 

It is rare when a wide receiver becomes a team’s big play man in the running game, but Damaris Johnson was that man.  He averaged more than 10 yards per rush and ran the ball 55 more than four times per game.  When he wasn’t sprinting wide with the ball, he found time to lead the team with 57 pass receptions good for 872 yards.  In his spare time, he returned a punt and a kickoff for a touchdown.  We haven’t heard yet whether he sells programs before the games or marches in the band at halftime.

 

Willie Carter and Ricky Johnson teamed up for just 41 receptions last year, but they both averaged 16 yards per catch.  They will team with Mr. Everything to make a dangerous group.

 

Tulsa’s Achilles heel last year was its defense.  The Golden Hurricane surrendered more than 30 points and 450 yards per game last year.  New defensive coordinator Brent Guy moves TU from a 3-3-5 to a 4-3 defense.  Expect middle linebacker Curnelius Arnick to become an even bigger playmaker in this alignment after he led the team with 115 tackles in 2010.  Shawn Jackson and DeAundre Brown team with Arnick to form one of the top linebacker trios in the league.  If Brown can return to his pre-injury 2009 form, this will be the best unit.  Jackson led TU with 15 ½ stops for loss, including 8 ½ sacks.

 

Safeties Dexter McCoil and Marco Nelson form an excellent tandem of ball hawks.  Both players intercepted six passes last year.

 

Up front, end Tyrunn Walker is the top holdover, earning 2^nd Team All-CUSA honors last year.  He recorded 12 tackles for loss.

 

Tulsa hosts Houston in the season finale, and that game should determine the West Division representative in the conference title game.  If Tulsa can stay healthy against this demanding schedule, we believe the Golden Hurricane is the favorite for that spot.

 

S M U returns most of their key players from a team that won the West Division last year, but the Mustangs are the third choice to start 2011.  Coach June Jones’ team finished just 7-7 overall due to 1-3 non-conference record and losses to UCF in the Championship Game and Army in the bowl.  Another tough non-conference schedule will prevent the Mustangs from making any major leap forward.

 

Kyle Padron returns at quarterback after throwing for 3,828 yards and 31 touchdowns.  Five of his top six receivers return, including Cole Beasley, who caught 87 passes for 1,060 yards.  However, the one receiver lost was an NFL draft choice.  Aldrick Robinson caught 65 passes and averaged 20 yards per catch with 14 touchdowns.  With the breakaway threat gone, the other receivers will find the going a little tougher, and SMU will pass for less yards this season.

 

Taking up the slack in the yardage department will be an excellent running game.  Zach Line rushed for almost 1,500 yards last year and averaged more than six yards per carry. 

 

Up front, SMU’s offensive line is almost as talented as Tulsa’s.  All five starters return as well as the five second teamers.  Tackle Kelvin Beachum earned 1^st team all-conference honors last year and could contend for Honorable Mention All-American honors this year.

 

SMU gained more than 5,800 total yards last year but only scored 360 points.  That averages out to more than 16 yards per point.  The average effective offense scores a point for about 13 yards of offense, meaning SMU should have scored close to 450 points last year.  The Mustangs could gain fewer yards and score more points this season, but only if the backs can hold onto the ball, and Padron can keep his interceptions down.

 

SMU’s defense has improved for three consecutive seasons, and it could be more of the same in season four of the Jones era.  Eight different defensive players made an all-conference team last year, and six of them return, two each in the three different units.  Ends Margus Hunt and Taylor Thompson were two of those award winners.  The duo teamed up for 7 ½ sacks. 

 

In the second line of defense, linebackers Taylor Reed and Ja’Gared Davis combined for 235 tackles.  Both could earn 1^st Team All-CUSA accolades this year.

 

Cornerback Richard Crawford and safety Chris Banjo are the stars of the secondary.  Crawford recorded 12 passes defended with four interceptions, while Banjo proved to be strong against both the run and the pass.

 

September will bring an almost assured 3-2 start for SMU.  Road games against Texas A&M and TCU bookmark games with UTEP, Northwestern State, and Memphis.  After a week off, the Mustangs host Central Florida in a game that will decide if either team will contend in their respective division.

 

Houston has the schedule Tulsa needs to become a BCS Bowl participant.  The Cougars are not that far behind Tulsa in talent, and if Coach Kevin Sumlin can plug a couple of holes on both sides of the ball, we would not be surprised to see Houston visiting Tulsa with a perfect won-loss record on the line.

 

All this optimism hinges on the 100% return of Heisman Trophy candidate Case Keenum.  The Cougars have had some outstanding quarterbacks, including a Heisman Trophy winner in Andre Ware and current Arizona Cardinals’ QB Kevin Kolb.  However, Keenum may be better than both.  When he was healthy in 2009, he completed 70% of his passes for 5,671 yards and 44 touchdowns.  If he replicates those numbers this year, all other marbles should fall in place.  Backup David Piland threw for 2,641 yards and 24 touchdowns as Keenum’s fill-in, so there is excellent depth.

 

Keenum will hook up frequently with Patrick Edwards.  Edwards led the Cougars with 71 receptions, 13 touchdowns and 1,100 yards.  Houston will have to break in two new receivers, but they have some real sprinters ready to go in 2011. 

 

Houston has not been a running back factory since the old veer offense days of the 1960’s and 1970’s; more recently, they have produced one productive back at a time.  This year, the Cougars have three great running backs.  Bryce Beall and Michael Hayes teamed for almost 1,500 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns last year, while former co-regular Charles Sims returns after missing last season.  The trio should team up for about 175 rushing yards per game this season; considering that Houston passes the ball about 60% of the time, this is a scary statistic.  It will give Keenum more open looks when defenses have to remain honest.

 

The one question mark to the 2011 offense is a rebuilding offensive line.  Keenum was not sacked in the two plus games that he played before his ACL injury.  Piland only went down 12 times after that.  Expect the sack total to go up by at least 50% this year due to some inexperience in the blocking corps.  Center Chris Thompson is one of the best at his position in the conference, and Keenum should feel comfortable with him.

 

Houston averaged more than 40 points per game with Keenum directing the offense in 2008 and 2009.  They scored 122 points in the first two games last year before he went down for the count and averaged “just” 33 points per game without him.  We believe he will regain his old form, and the Cougars will move north of the 40-point mark again this year.

 

Whether 40 points per game will be enough to win all the games on the schedule is an unknown at this point.  Houston’s defense will not be championship material this year.  The Cougars gave up more than 32 points and 430 yards per game, and there may be no improvement and even a small deterioration in the numbers this year.

 

The secondary is a major concern.  Just one starter returns from a unit that gave up about 225 passing yards at a 60% completion rate.  As of this writing, Sumlin has not yet decided on his starting four nor has he even decided where to play some of his players.  Expected starting cornerback Chevy Bennett was playing safety in the early scrimmage.

 

As raw as the secondary will be, the linebackers will be grey beards.  Seniors Sammy Brown and Marcus McGraw could both earn all-league honors, and Brown could contend for defensive player of the year.  He recorded 20 tackles for loss with 7 ½ sacks in 2010.  Junior Phillip Steward is an excellent pass defender from his strong side spot.

 

Up front, the three-man line had a tough time stopping the run last year.  UH gave up more than 200 rushing yards as close to a five yard per carry rate.  Ends David Hunter and Kelvin King return, but the Cougars will have a new nose guard as Matangi Tonga graduated.

 

Houston has a couple of special teams weapons as well.  When not catching passes, Edwards is one of the best punt returners in the nation.  Tyron Carrier is an asset in the kick return game.

 

Houston has a slim chance of running the table this year, but with too many questions on the defensive side, we tend to believe they will fall once or twice.

 

Last year, Rice began to recover some from its slide from 10 wins in 2008 to 10 losses in 2009.  The Owls won four games and blew out East Carolina 62-38, so Coach David Bailiff has enough talent to get back above the .500 mark.

 

Injuries ruined any chance for the Owls to contend for a bowl bid last year.  Quarterback Taylor McHargue played sparingly due to injuries last year.  In his time under center, he completed 57% of his passes at 8.5 yards per attempt. 

 

Former quarterback 6-07 Taylor Cook moves to wide receiver and will team with tight end 6-05 Luke Wilson and wideout 6-05 Vance McDonald to make one of the tallest receiver units in college football history.  While there isn’t a trailblazer in this group, there will be a lot of 3^rd down passing plays converted to first downs.

 

Sam McGuffie is a dual threat back.  He led the Owls with 883 rushing yards while catching 39 passes.  That earned him 2^nd team all-league honors.

 

The offensive line returns four starters, but they are mediocre at best.  Guard Davon Allen and tackle Jake Hicks are the two quality players in the blocking corps.

 

Rice should exceed last season’s production of 29 points and 375 yards.  Look for more than 30 points and 400 yards this season.

 

In Bailiff’s four seasons in Houston, Rice has given up 43, 33, 43, and 39 points per game.  They won 10 games when they gave up 33 points, so it will not take much for a record reversal.  Unfortunately, with the tough out-of-conference schedule and road games against Southern Miss, Houston, and SMU, it does not look like the Owls can chop much off last season’s numbers.

 

The biggest problem with the Rice defense is the secondary.  The Owls gave up 304 passing yards per game last year and intercepted just six passes.  Of course, a better pass rush would have helped, as enemy quarterbacks hit the turf just 14 times.  Four of the five starters return from a year ago, and unfortunately three of them were the top three tacklers on the team.  That can never be a good sign.

 

There is some good news at linebacker.  Kyle Prater takes over in the middle after transferring from LSU two years ago.  There’s more good news in the trenches with the return from injury of end Scott Solomon.  However, that is not enough good news to turn Rice’s fortunes around.

 

The schedule makers did the Owls no favors this year.  Rice plays at Texas, Northwestern, and Baylor and hosts Purdue out of the league, and that could very well equate to an 0-4 mark.  The three conference road games listed above are basically unwinnable, so even if the Owls win the other five games, they will finish with a losing record.  They must sweep the five easier teams and then pick up a big upset somewhere along the line.  We do not see it happening this season.

 

Tulane has not enjoyed a winning season since 2002, when Mewelde Moore was running loose.  The Green Wave always seem to be good for one upset, but they cannot get over the hill.  This could be Coach Bob Toledo’s last attempt to reverse the poor fortunes in the Crescent City.

 

The offense will revolve around running back Orleans Darkwa.  As a freshman, Darkwa rushed for 925 and 11 touchdowns, earning 1^st team All-CUSA awards.  Look for Darkwa to run the ball more than the 15 times he averaged last year.  He should carry the ball 25 times for about 125 yards per game.

 

Junior quarterback Ryan Griffin was adequate but not exceptional last year.  He completed 60% of his passes for 2,371 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2010, but he played part of the season with a lame shoulder.  He should have more zip on the ball this year, and his numbers will improve.

 

Only one real threat returns to the receiver corps.  Ryan Grant grabbed 33 passes and blazed for almost 16 yards per catch. 

 

The offensive line could be a liability this year.  Three starters return and three second teamers are back, but we do not see any stars in this group.

 

Tulane averaged 25 points and 373 yards per game last year.  We expect those numbers to improve some this year, but we do not see a 30-point, 400-yard production.  That’s what the Green Wave offense will need to get to seven wins.

 

Defensively, TU gave up more than 37 points per game in 2010.  Six times, they surrendered 42 or more points.  No unit stands out as a strength this year, and we expect the Green Wave to give up more than five touchdowns per game for the third consecutive season.  Tulane’s biggest problem is an inability to stop the run.  Opponents averaged five yards per carry, and you must realize that their schedule found them facing a majority of opponents that preferred to pass rather than run.

 

Up front, end Dezman Moses was the one bright spot.  Moses recorded six sacks and forced seven QB hurries after transferring from Iowa.  In the second line of defense, Trent Mackey made the 1^st Team All-CUSA roster after he led TU with 124 tackles.

 

The secondary looked better than it was, because teams found the going so easy running the ball against the Green Wave.  Yet, TU did surrender just 53.9% in completion percentage. 

 

Unlike Rice, Tulane’s schedule is manageable.  Outside of league play, TU should beat Southeast Louisiana.  They should compete against Duke and Army, and Syracuse comes to the Superdome in what looks like a big upset chance for TU.  Remember, they always come up with one upset.  In conference play, home games with UTEP and Memphis will give the Green Wave an excellent chance to pick up two league wins.  There is an outside chance Tulane could be 6-6 and playing for bowl eligibility when they head to Hawaii for the season finale.  This team is not as good as Rice, but the schedule gives them the chance that Rice will not receive.

 

U T E P used to be referred to as the University of Texas at intercepted passo by one a pollster that used to rank the Bottom 10 every year.  Then, the Miners started to get better earning three bowls in six years.  After four sub-.500 seasons, UTEP recovered to break even in the regular season in 2010.  A bowl loss sent their final record back under .500 again.  It looks like 2011 could find the Miners resembling their old moniker once again. 

 

Only one starter returns to an offense that was just pedestrian in CUSA standards last year.  Running back Joe Banyard may wish he wasn’t the lone returnee.  He led TEP with 623 rushing yards last year, but with no starters returning at QB, wide receiver, and offensive line, he will probably not match that number this season.

 

At quarterback, Nick Lamaison has been named the starter.  He completed 60% of his passes for almost 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns as a sophomore at junior college. 

 

Donovan Kemp is the only receiver left on the roster that caught more than 10 passes and gained more than 100 yards.  He is coming off an ACL injury, so he may not be 100% at the beginning of the season.

 

With no returning regulars to the front five, Coach Mike Price had to recruit multiple juco players to fill the spots.  Center Eloy Anderson has one career start.

 

UTEP has averaged no less than 26 points per game for the last seven years.  2011 may find them averaging less than they did in 2003 (22.2).

 

The Miners have almost the exact opposite situation on the other side of the ball.  15 of the top 19 tacklers from 2010 are back this year.  Of course, those players contributed to a defense that gave up 28 points and more than 400 yards per game, so there may be little or no improvement.  If the offense struggles and the time of possession suffers, UTEP could even fare worse defensively in 2011.

 

The secondary is the strongest unit on the stop side.  Safety Travaun Nixon was voted to the All-CUSA 2^nd team after he defended 12 passes with four interceptions.  Fellow safety DeShawn Grayson earned honorable mention all-conference honors.

 

At linebacker, all three starters are back for more.  Royzell Smith, Jamie Irving, and Isaiah Carter combined for 226 tackles, each recording more than 70.  Up front, three starters return, but this group lacks a star. 

 

UTEP will start the season 1-0 thanks to a cupcake game with Stony Brook.  After that game, a road trip to Las Cruces to play New Mexico State is their best shot at picking up a second win.

 

Conference USA Preseason Media Poll
C-USA EAST	1st Place Votes	Total Votes
Central Florida	20	139
Southern Miss	4	122
East Carolina		93
Marshall		65
U A B		61
Memphis		24
C-USA WEST	1st Place Votes	Total Votes
Houston	12	127
Tulsa	8	117
S M U	4	116
Rice		60
Tulane (tied)		42
U T E P (tied)		42

 

Conference USA PiRate Ratings
C-USA EAST	PiRate #	Prediction
Southern Miss	97.0	7-1/10-3
East Carolina	94.8	6-2/6-6
Central Florida	91.9	5-3/7-5
U A B	89.1	3-5/3-9
Marshall	85.8	3-5/3-9
Memphis	72.0	0-8/2-10
C-USA WEST	PiRate #	Prediction
Tulsa	103.6	7-1/9-4 *
S M U	102.0	5-3/6-6
Houston	96.7	7-1/10-2
Rice	89.7	3-5/3-9
Tulane	80.9	2-6/4-9
U T E P	76.0	0-8/1-11
* Tulsa picked to beat Southern Miss in the Championship Game

 

Next: The Western Athletic Conference preview—Thursday, August 18

 

2010 Conference USA Preview

Go To: www.piratings.webs.com , where we “beat the spread” 60.4% in 2009!

 

Note: The PiRate Ratings are not meant to be used to predict the outcome of future games.  They are usable only as a basis for the current week’s games.  We do not use these ratings to make our selections.  They are only a starting point.  The predictions given below, as for every college conference and NFL division, are not taken from the ratings themselves.  Many hours of research go into our weekly selections against the spread.

 

2010 Conference USA Preview

28.8 points per game—that is the average score put up by members of Conference USA in conference games last year.  These teams averaged 417 yards of offense per game.  If wide open offenses and 150 scrimmage plays per game are up your alley, you have found the conference to follow.

The most outstanding of these offenses belongs to the Houston Cougars.  This is the third time in the school’s history that Houston has been so dominating on offense.  In the late 1960’s, it was the veer offense.  The Cougars were the last team to reach 100 points in a game when they did so against Tulsa in 1968.  In the late 1980’s, it was the run and shoot offense.  Houston came within five points of repeating the triple digit score when they hung 95 on SMU.  Now, with Case Keenum running a four wide receiver spread offense, could the Cougars possibly be primed to challenge the triple digit mark again?  Two opportunities present them with a great chance in the month of September.  It will be fun to watch—unless you are a fan of one of the two teams that could see it happen. 

C U S A Predictions
Pos	Team	Conf	Overall
C U S A  EAST
1	Southern Mississippi	6-2	9-4
2	Central Florida	6-2	8-4
3	U A B	4-4	6-6
4	Marshall	4-4	6-6
5	East Carolina	2-6	2-10
6	Memphis	0-8	0-12
Pos	Team	Conf	Overall
C U S A  WEST
1	Houston	7-1	10-3
2	S M U	6-2	7-5
3	Tulsa	6-2	8-4
4	U T E P	4-4	7-5
5	Rice	4-4	4-8
6	Tulane	0-8	2-10

 

CUSA Championship Game: Houston over Southern Mississippi

 

Liberty Bowl—Houston

Hawaii Bowl—Southern Mississippi

Armed Forces Bowl—S M U

St. Petersburg Bowl—Central Florida

New Orleans Bowl—U T E P

Eagle Bank Bowl–Tulsa

 

Team By Team Breakdown

CUSA East

 

Team	East Carolina Pirates
Head Coach	Ruffin McNeill
Colors	Purple and Gold
City	Greenville, NC
2009 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-5
PiRate Rating	89.6
National Rating	89
2010 Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	2-10

 

Offense: Things will be much more exciting in Greenville this season when the Pirates have the ball.  New coach Ruffin McNeill brings the Texas Tech “Air Raid” offense with him from Lubbock.  He also brings former TTU receivers coach Lincoln Riley as his offensive coordinator (youngest coordinator in FBS by three years!)

Gone is the ball-control offense that wasn’t flashy but was effective enough to win back-to-back CUSA titles for former coach Skip Holtz.  ECU will throw the ball more than 40 times a game (maybe over 50).  There is a minor battle going on to decide which of four quarterbacks will start against Tulsa in game one.  It appears that former Boston College QB Dominique Davis will get the nod over Brad Wornick and Rio Johnson, but it would not surprise us if eventually true freshman Shane Carden emerges as the full-time starter. 

The receiving corps returns two key players who could both approach 100 receptions this season. Dwayne Harris and Darryl Feeney teamed for 131 receptions in 2009.  Harris is more of the possession receiver, while Feeney is the breakaway threat.

ECU has had some off the field issues with multiple running backs, and this year’s starter by default has not been immune to that.  Jonathan Williams will get one last chance to live up to his high recruit status, but he only averaged 2.7 yards per carry last year.  The Pirates will run the ball 20-25 times with several draw plays.

The offensive line returns three starters, but the two that graduated were both All-CUSA performers.  Throw in the fact that they must learn an entirely new blocking scheme, and you can expect sacks to possibly triple from the 14 of last year.

We believe the new passing offense will produce a lot of yards through the air, while sacks and weaker blocking will haunt the running game.  Look for about 75 yards rushing and 300-325 passing yards, but only about 24-28 points per game.

Defense: We’re talking trouble with a capital T, and that rhymes with P, and that stands for players, as in nine lost starting players from 2009.  To make matters worse, not a single player in the front seven returns this year to a defense that will be on the field for at least 5-10 more plays this year.

The only experience is in the secondary, where both cornerbacks, Emanuel Davis and Travis Simmons, combined for 121 tackles.  Davis intercepted two passes and knocked away a dozen.  They benefitted from one of the best pass rushes in the league, and they won’t be so fortunate this year.  Even with the experience and talent, expect enemy quarterbacks to find the going easier against the Pirate secondary.

Worse than the lack of a returning starter up front is the possibility that as many as three of the four starters in the trenches could be freshmen or sophomores.  Senior Dustin Lineback should emerge as the star of the linebacking unit, but he only recorded 29 tackles last year.

When you factor into the equation that the new offense will struggle at times and force the defense back on the field much more than last year, it looks like this will be a long year for ECU.  Look for the Pirates to give up 30-35 points and 400+ yards per game.

Schedule: Out of conference games at Virginia Tech and North Carolina are sure losses.  Home games with North Carolina State and Navy also look like losses.  The Pirates get Memphis at home, and that is the only sure win.  We figure they will pick up one more along the way.  2-10 would be a big disappointment, but ECU will take a lot of lumps in transitioning to the new offense.

 

Team	Marshall Thundering Herd
Head Coach	Doc Holliday
Colors	Green and White
City	Huntington, WV
2009 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	7-6
PiRate Rating	88.7
National Rating	91
2010 Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	6-6

 

Offense: Here is another school with a new coach.  Marshall gave the Okay to Doc Holliday to corral the Thundering Herd talent into winners at the CUSA gunfight.  He has enough talent to succeed in year one.  

Holliday has worked for Urban Meyer, so you can expect some form of the spread offense.  The first order of business is to identify who will be piloting the new scheme.  Willy Korn was a high school phenom when he signed with Clemson.  Things didn’t pan out there, and he transferred to Marshall where it was expected he would beat out 2009 incumbent Brian Anderson.  However, our spies in Huntington tell us that Anderson is going to keep his job as starter.  Korn may not even be the number two, because hot shot freshman Eddie Sullivan has a really big arm and fast shoes.  This position is in very good hands.

Anderson will have a quartet of fine receivers to throw to this year.  2009 leader Antavious Wilson caught 60 passes for 724 yards last year.  Aaron Dobson is the speedster of the group.  He won’t catch 60 passes, but the 30-40 he does grab should average more than 15 yards per reception and produce double-digit touchdowns.  Tight end Lee Smith is the hands down best at his position in the conference.

The offensive line is better blocking for the run than pass, but we believe they will pick up the new scheme quickly.  All five projected starters are experienced upperclassmen. 

The formerly strong running game is the one concern on this side of the ball.  The Herd lost a 1,000-yard rusher last year, and 2010 figures to be a season where the leading runner could gain less than 800 yards.  If Korn sees action, he could be used as the running alternative to Anderson.

We believe Marshall’s offensive numbers will increase minimally this year.  Look for 24-26 points and 350-375 total yards.

Defense:  Former Marshall coach Mark Snyder was supposed to be a defensive wizard, after he molded some great defenses at Ohio State.  The Buckeye defenses actually improved under Jim Heacock after Snyder left.  His Herd defenses were mediocre, and that cost him his job. 

This year, the pieces are in place for another mediocre showing.  Marshall will fare well against most opponents’ running games, but they will suffer against the slate of excellent opposing quarterbacks they will face this season.  The secondary is a big concern following the loss of its top two stars.  Free safety Omar Brown and cornerback Ahmed Shakoor return, but there is not much experience or depth in this unit.

The defensive line also returns half of its starting contingent, but there is more depth up front than in the back line.  End Vinny Curry could make 1^st Team All-CUSA this year after he registered 8 ½ stops behind the line last year.

The middle trio is the strength on this side of the ball.  Linebackers Kellen Harris and Mario Harvey are both excellent run-stoppers.  They will be called on to contribute more in pass coverage this year to hide the liabilities behind them.

The new offense may force the defense to play a couple more plays per game, and we believe Marshall will give up a couple more points and yards per game this season.  Look for 25-28 points and 375-400 yards allowed.

Schedule: Marshall opens the season at the Giant Horseshoe in Columbus against Ohio State, and then the home-opener the following week is against West Virginia.  The Herd will be 0-2 when they go to Bowling Green in week three.  That will be a must-win game if Marshall is to earn six wins again this season.  They host Ohio U the following week before beginning conference play.  Their first two games in the league come against the top two teams in their division—Southern Mississippi and Central Florida.  They could be 1-5 by then and figure to be 2-4.  Home games with UTEP, Memphis, and Tulane will make the back end of the schedule much more fun for Herd fans.  Look for Marshall to flirt with a winning season but fall short and finish 6-6 or 5-7.

 

 

Team	Memphis Tigers
Head Coach	Larry Porter
Colors	Blue and Gray
City	Memphis, TN
2009 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-10
PiRate Rating	77.7
National Rating	114
2010 Prediction
Conference	0-8
Overall	0-12

 

Offense:  Welcome to a big mess!  Memphis doesn’t have much going for it these days.  If you walk around town, the natives will tell you they wish they lived somewhere else.  There is a malaise there.  You can get away from it by making a trip to the Rendezvous for a plate of ribs, but 2010 is not a fun time for the Bluff City.  Ditto that for Memphis Tiger fans.  Tommy West did not go quietly when he was given his walking papers.  He warned the administration that they needed to make a significant renewed effort to revitalize the football program, or else drop football.  Rome wasn’t built in a day, and neither will this football program.  It has been rumored that Memphis will be admitted to the Big East Conference in a few years, but Big East officials deny this.  If it doesn’t happen, Memphis could become the next Villanova.

Okay, let’s talk some real football.  New coach Larry Porter comes from LSU, where the coaching staff has been under fire now for a couple of seasons.  He steps out of one frying pan into another.  The Tigers will have new players starting at quarterback, running back, and two of the receiver positions.  They lost their top two rushers and top two receivers. 

The new quarterback will be under close media scrutiny from day one.  Cannon Smith is the son of Federal Express ex-CEO Fred Smith.  Smith has offered up a 10 million dollar “bribe” to any major conference if they accept Memphis as a member.  Most of us have seen cases where the son of the big shot got preferential treatment (like George Herbert Walker Bush’s son and Joseph Kennedy’s sons).  Smith played in one game for Miami (FL) two years ago, but even if he is worthy of being the starter, there will be too much pressure on him to prove it to the rest of the world.

Making matters worse, there isn’t that much talent for Smith to throw the ball.   Sophomore Marcus Rucker is the best of this bunch, but he had just 18 receptions in 2009.

Don’t expect the next DeAngelo Williams or Curtis Steele to suit up for Memphis this year.  True freshman Jerrell Rhodes will likely get the most carries with Lance Smith supplementing.

The offensive line is better than average but not great.  All 2009 starters return, but they will be called to sustain their blocks up to a half-second longer for the inexperienced quarterbacks and receivers to hook up.  Without Steele, they will have to do more in run blocking as well.

We are extremely pessimistic on this year’s team.  We believe Memphis will struggle to score 17 points per game and be fortunate to produce 325 total yards per game.

Defense: The picture on this side of the ball makes the offense look peachy.  The Tigers are going to crash and burn on this side of the ball in 2010.  Only five starters return to a defense that couldn’t stop the pass last year. 

In their final four games, Memphis surrendered 415 passing yards per game last year, and they lost their top two secondary starters.  Cornerback DA Griffin was out for those four games, and his return gives the Tigers a little solace.

Middle linebacker Jamon Hughes led Memphis with 87 tackles last year.  He could be the lone player on this side of the ball to make the All-CUSA team.

Up front, there is some quality and depth.  Three starters return, and the projected fourth starter saw significant action.  Porter recognizes a need for a better pass rush, and he moved Winston Bowens from linebacker to end.

Memphis gave up 35 points per game last year, and they will not improve this year.  Expect 35-40 points and 450-475 yards allowed.

Schedule:  The non-conference schedule isn’t all that difficult, and in a good year, the Tigers could have possibly won all four of these games.  With the major rebuilding project here, they are likely to lose all four.  They open at Mississippi State and play at Louisville in October.  They host Middle Tennessee and Tennessee.  Throw in Houston, Tulsa, and UTEP from the other division, and the almost sure losses add up to seven.  Inside divisional play, Southern Miss and Central Florida are two more sure losses.  That leaves three games—East Carolina, Marshall, and UAB for Memphis to try to find one win.  It may not happen this year.  0-12 is a possibility.  Cheer up Memphis fans.  Basketball season begins soon.

 

 

Team	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
Head Coach	Larry Fedora
Colors	Black and Gold
City	Hattiesburg, MS
2009 Record
Conference	5-3
Overall	7-6
PiRate Rating	91.1
National Rating	84
2010 Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	9-4

 

Offense: Coach Larry Fedora has produced two excellently balanced offenses in his first two seasons in Hattiesburg.  The Golden Eagles might be just as balanced this year, but that just means that the decimated attack drops off equally in the running and passing stats. 

The offensive line is the major concern.  Only center Cameron Zipp has any starting experience.  He will be surrounded by upperclassmen who have never started a game, and that is a little bit of a concern.

If the line can gel just enough to be considered average, the rest of this offense should be okay.  Quarterback Austin Davis isn’t Case Keenum or G.J. Kinne, but he is a fine passer.  The Eagles have the best backup quarterback in the conference.  Martevious Young had a 16/3 TD/Int ratio last year when he filled in for the injured Davis. 

Only one starting wide out returns.  DeAndre Brown was a consensus freshman All-American last year after catching 47 passes for 785 yards and nine scores.  Junior college transfer Kelvin Bolden was a high school teammate of Brown, and he has the speed to make defenses pay if they try to stop the bigger Brown.

Southern Miss lost its career rushing leader when Damien Fletcher graduated.  Look for Fedora to use a three-player platoon with V.J. Floyd getting first crack as the starter.  Watch out for freshman Kendrik Hardy, who could see a lot of action in short yardage situations.

Southern Miss will not be as explosive on offense this year.  Look for a drop to 25-28 points and 375-400 total yards per game.

Defense:  This side of the ball is in much better shape.  The Golden Eagles will improve here, and with enough improvement, they could be playing on December 4 as the East Division representative in the CUSA Championship Game.

The entire front seven returns from last year, and that includes four juniors and three seniors.  Tackle Anthony Gray and end Cordarro Law have legitimate NFL talent.  They combined for 21 ½ tackles behind the line last year.

The three linebackers were the top three tacklers on the team.  All three (Martez Smith, Korey Williams, and Ronnie Thornton) could make one of the three-deep All-CUSA teams.  The entire trio plays the run and the pass exceptionally well.

The secondary is the only weak spot on the defense, but with an experienced front seven, their inefficiencies may be hidden.  One player who won’t have to hide is cornerback C. J. Bailey.  He knocked away 13 passes last year.

Throw in a great punt returner in Tracy Lampley, and USM might have the best overall defense in the league this season after giving up 26 points per game last year (42 to Middle Tennessee in the New Orleans Bowl loss).  We believe the Eagles will shave both points and yards off 2009’s averages.  Look for 22-24 points and 350-375 yards allowed.  In this league, those numbers will be good enough to lead. 

Schedule: The opener is a toughie at South Carolina on Thursday night, September 2.  Home games follow with Prairie View and a rebuilding Kansas.  Southern Miss wraps up non-conference play with a visit to a rebuilding Louisiana Tech, so a 3-1 start is quite possible.  In league play, it all comes down to the last three weeks of November, when the Eagles play at Central Florida, host Houston, and finish at Tulsa.  They could lose two of those games and still win the division title.  The game with UCF should determine which of those two schools win the division flag.  We tend to favor USM by the thinnest of margins—maybe 50.1% to 49.9%.

 

 

Team	U A B  Blazers
Head Coach	Neil Callaway
Colors	Green and Gold
City	Birmingham, AL
2009 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	5-7
PiRate Rating	90.4
National Rating	87
2010 Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	6-6

 

Offense: How do you replace Superman?  You can’t, and UAB cannot replace departed quarterback Joe Webb.  Webb was a one-man offense for the Blazers last year, leading the team in rushing with more than 1,400 yards (1,600+ when you factor out sacks) and 11 touchdowns, while passing for 2,300 yards and 21 touchdowns.  He accounted for 32 of UAB’s 39 touchdowns!

Fourth year head coach Neil Callaway has three options to choose from in selecting Webb’s replacement.  While all three are decent runners, none can do what Webb did.  Sophomore David Isabelle, Junior Bryan Ellis, and Juco Emmanuel Taylor have been splitting the snaps in practice so far, and it will take at least one or two scrimmages to determine the winner.

There is quality and experience at wide receiver and tight end.  Wide out Frantrell Forrest and tight end Jeremy Anderson return after finishing one-two in catches last year.  Both combine decent size and speed with good hands, so if the new QB has any accuracy, UAB should be able to move the ball overhead.

The running back spot was more of a decoy and pass blocker last year.  It was so bad that Isabelle was the team’s second leading rusher, and he saw very limited action backing up Webb.  Like the QB position, three players are vying for the one spot.  Justin Brooks is the best downhill runner able to create holes with punishing plunges.  Pat Shed is the dangerous long-gain threat able to make quick cuts and evade tackles.  Daniel Borne is a combination of the other two.  All three will fail to equal the rushing numbers put up by Webb, but they could give the Blazers a more balanced look.

The offensive line is a major asset this year.  It could even be in the top three in the league.  Four starters return from last year, led by tackle Matt McCants, a 6-7 monster.

Look for UAB’s offense to take a step backward in both point and yardage production, but the Blazers will not be a slouch for any opposing defense in this league.  Expect about 23-26 points and 375-400 total yards.

Defense:  Here is where there is much optimism for 2010.  UAB gave up more than 32 points per game last year, but things are looking up on this side of the ball.  12 of the top 13 tacklers return, including the entire defensive line (technically one of these starters, Daniel White, started at outside linebacker).  Three of those linemen, tackles Elliott Henigan and D. J. Reese and end Bryant Turner, have good shots at making one of the All-CUSA teams.  They teamed for 23 stops behind the line, and that number will go up by at least five this year.

Linebackers Lamanski Ware and Marvin Burdette return, but this unit lacks a little something.  None of the linebackers are 1^st team all-league material.

The secondary is solid this season.  Free safety Hiram Atwater is one of the three best defensive backs in the league.  He led UAB with 89 tackles last year.  Cornerback Terrell Springs broke up 10 passes last year while finishing third in tackles.

Callaway hopes his secondary players don’t lead the team in tackles this season, but it is likely to happen.  Still, the Blazers will improve on this side of the ball and surrender less than 30 points per game for the first time since Watson Brown was the head coach.  Look for 25-28 points and 380-410 yards allowed

Schedule:  UAB is lucky this year.  They avoid both Houston and Tulsa from the other division.  Out of league play, the Blazers have two winnable games with Florida Atlantic and Troy coming to Legion Field.  Road games at Tennessee and Mississippi State appear to be double-digit losses, even though both SEC teams will finish near the bottom of their respective divisions.  There are a couple of key games that will decide whether UAB can get to six wins for the first time since 2004.  The Blazers host UTEP, Marshall, ECU, and Memphis.  If they win all four, they are looking at 6-6.

 

 

Team	U C F Knights
Head Coach	George O’Leary
Colors	Black and Gold
City	Orlando, FL
2009 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-5
PiRate Rating	94.5
National Rating	76
2010 Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-4

 

Offense:  UCF has not registered back-to-back winning seasons since 2001 and 2002.  On the other hand, they have not had back-to-back losing seasons either.  It has been feast during the odd years and famine during the even years.  Head Coach George O’Leary’s team looks primed to break that trend easily this year.  The Knights are the co-favorites in this division.

If O’Leary can find an adequate new quarterback to replace Brett Hodges, UCF will become the overwhelming favorite to win the East Division for the second time in four years.  Rob Calabrese has won the starting job twice before, but he apparently wasn’t ready to lead the team.  O’Leary believes the third time is the charm.  The only fly in the ointment may be that he could feel the nerves after being booed at home last year.

The rest of the offense is fairly well set.  At running back, Central Florida returns every player who contributed in the ground game last year, including Brynn Harvey.  Harvey rushed for more than 1,100 yards, scoring 14 times.  He won’t be available until the third or fourth game due to a knee injury he suffered in spring drills, but Jonathan Davis, Ronnie Weaver, and Brendan Davis will fill in admirably until Harvey is full speed once again.

The Knights have a terrific trio of wide receivers returning.  A.J. Guyton, Kamar Aiken, and Jamar Newsome combined for 104 catches and 1,471 yards.

Helping make this offense go is an experienced and very deep offensive line.  Four starters return and eight of the two-deep return.  O’Leary landed a bonanza of quality recruits here, so there is depth galore.

Look for UCF to score 24-28 points and gain 340-370 yards per game on offense this year.  If they can average 28 points per game, they will be tough to beat in the conference.

Defense: Since O’Leary took over in 2004, the Knight defense has given up 33, 29, 29, 27, 24, and 23 points per game per season.  Do you see the pattern?  Expect that patter to continue again this season, because UCF is loaded on this side of the ball.

The Knights have an outstanding set of ends in David Williams and Bruce Miller.  The two senior terminals specialize in making tackles on the offensive side of scrimmage.  Miller registered 13 sacks and five other tackles for loss.  The tackles are inexperienced, but they both tip the scale at 300+ pounds.  It will take more than one blocker to drive them off the line.

The linebacking trio returns two 2009 starters, but it is just like having all three back, because 2008 star Chance Henderson returns after missing last year with an injury.  Lawrence Young and Derrick Hallman combined for 23 ½ tackles for loss.

The secondary ranks with Southern Miss and UAB as the best in the conference.  The Knights are toughest at cornerback where Josh Robinson and Justin Boddie form the best outside defending pair in the league. 

UCF will give up less than 23 points per game this year.  Call if 18-22 points and 325-350 yards a contest.

Schedule: The Knights open with four consecutive non-conference games and then get a week off before starting league play.  They should be 2-2 at that point after beating South Dakota, losing to North Carolina State in a close game, winning at Buffalo, and losing at Kansas State.  They host Southern Miss on November 13, but they must face Houston on the road the week before.  We expect the Cougars to be clicking on all cylinders by then and think that game will be a loss for UCF.  It will all come down to the USM game.  At this moment in time, we favor the Eagles by about a half-point.

 

 

CUSA West

 

Team	Houston Cougars
Head Coach	Kevin Sumlin
Colors	Red and White
City	Houston, TX
2009 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	10-4
PiRate Rating	104.3
National Rating	46
2010 Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	10-3

 

Offense: Ladies and gentlemen, it’s the event you’ve all been waiting for.  Step right up and see the magical Case and his band of merry men prowl and loot through the land.

As we told you at the beginning of this preview, this is the third time that Houston has become an offensive titan in college football.  In 1968, running what we call the Houston veer today, the Cougars averaged 42.5 points per game while rushing for better than 300 yards and passing for more than 200 yards per game.  On November 23, 1968, they reached the century mark in a game against Tulsa (Country music star Larry Gatlin rushed for the touchdown that gave Houston 93).  That team topped 70 points two other times.  Flash forward to 1989.  Houston, out of the run and shoot offense, rode the arm of Heisman Trophy winner Andre Ware to the tune of 53.5 points per game.  That team passed for more than 400 yards per game and almost repeated the feat of the 1968 team when they hung 95 points on SMU and topped 60 points four other times.

While we don’t believe this Houston team will score 50 points per game, it wouldn’t be a complete surprise.  The Cougars have topped 40 points per game the last two years, while averaging 563 yards of total offense both seasons.

Quarterback Case Keenum has a shot at becoming the next Heisman Trophy winner at UH.  He completed better than 70% of his passes last season.  Before you think that most of them were little dump passes, consider this:  he averaged better than eight yards per attempt and 11.5 yards per completion.  As a team, Houston put up 434 passing yards per game.  There is no reason to believe Keenum will not match or even exceed those numbers in his senior season.  He should be a first or second round pick in next year’s draft.

Keenum will benefit from the return of his big four receivers.  James Cleveland, Tyron Carrier, Patrick Edwards, and Charles Sims caught more passes (350) than 117 of the other 119 FBS schools!  This quartet gained 4,023 yards and scored 28 touchdowns.

Unlike most mega-passing teams, Houston can run the ball quite competently.  Both of last season’s big two rushers were set to return, but Charles Sims was declared academically ineligible.  Bryce Beall returns after rushing for 670 yards and seven scores.  He added 32 receptions and scored three times through the air.  Factoring out sacks, Houston exceeded five yards per rush.

The offensive line lost two starters, but the reserved picked up considerable playing time last year.  They gave up only 24 sacks in over 700 passing attempts, and that feat can be repeated again this year.

How much better could this Houston offense be in 2010?  If the defense can improve enough to give the offense a few more plays, and if the key players can stay healthy, this team could challenge the 50-point barrier.  It would not surprise us if Keenum throws for “just” 5,400 yards after topping 5,600 last year, because the running game could top 150 yards per game.  You won’t see a better offense in college football. 

Defense: This is the bugaboo for this team.  If the defense was just average, we would be discussing which BCS Bowl the Cougars would be headed to in January.  Houston gave up more than 30 points and 450 yards per game last year, and if the defensive line doesn’t improve by leaps and bounds, the Cougars could lose two or three games this year by scores of 45-35.

The line gave up a disgusting 227 rushing yards and better than five yards per carry.  In their four losses, the Cougars gave up an average of 253 rushing yards.  One of last year’s starting defensive linemen, Isaiah Thompson, has been moved from nose tackle to offensive guard, as Houston moves to a 3-4 defense.  That leaves UH with just one veteran on the front three. 

The quartet of linebackers has the potential to be much better than last year’s three-man unit.  Inside ‘backer Marcus McGraw was the star of last year’s defense, and he should repeat as 1^st Team All-CUSA.  He is equally tough against the run and the pass, and he is going to be a demon on the zone blitz.

The secondary returns two very capable starters in cornerback Jamal Robinson and free safety Nick Saenz.  Robinson intercepted five passes and knocked away eight others.

The Cougars are still not world-beaters on this side of the ball, but they should give up less than 30 points and 425 yards per game this year.

Schedule: A tougher schedule will keep the Cougars out of the BCS Bowl picture.  After an easy opener at home against Texas State and a conference opener at home with UTEP, UH plays at UCLA.  The Cougars must also face an improving Mississippi State team and close the season at Texas Tech.  We can only see a 2-2 mark out of league play.  In the conference, Houston must face Southern Miss and Central Florida from the East.  A road game at SMU should be one of the most entertaining games of the year with a score that looks like a basketball game.  We think Houston will fall one time in league play, but they should still win their division.  The Cougars are our choice to win the CUSA Championship Game and face a beatable SEC team in the Liberty Bowl.

 

 

Team	Rice Owls
Head Coach	David Bailiff
Colors	Dark Blue and Gray
City	Houston, TX
2009 Record
Conference	2-6
Overall	2-10
PiRate Rating	86.4
National Rating	95
2010 Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	4-8

 

Offense: The fall was sharp.  Rice followed up its first 10-win season in 60 years with a 10-loss season last year.  Nine starters return on offense, and one of those starters could be benched in favor of a transfer from the Big Ten.

Let’s start with the offensive line.  All five starters and four of the second unit return from last year to make this one of the most experienced blocking corps in the nation.  Guards Jake Hicks and Davon Allen and tackle Scott Mitchell will contend for all-conference honors.  Look for great pass protection and better run-blocking this year.

Quarterback Nick Fanuzzi returns after starting two-thirds of Rice’s games last year.  He passed for just under 1,600 yards last year, and that mark could easily double in 2010.

Fanuzzi will need some newcomers to step up from the group of receivers.  The Owls lost three of their top four from 2009, and the receivers who do return did nothing spectacular. 

The running game should make a major move forward.  After averaging a meager 109 yards on the ground in 2009, the Owls welcome Michigan transfer Sam McGuffie.  McGuffie is the highest-rated recruit to play at Rice in some time, and he should run the ball more than 20 times per game.

Rice won’t approach 2008’s offense numbers, but the Owls will combine a solid running game with a decent passing game to top last year’s output.  Call if 23-26 points and 325-350 total yards per game.

Defense:  This is where improvement must be made.  Rice gave up 43 points and 464 yards per game in 2009.  Nine starters return on this side of the ball too, including the entire defensive line.  The line also returns five other contributors from last year, and it should be much tougher to run on Rice this year.  Look for the pass rush to be much better as well with the return of ends Cheta Ozougwu and Scott Solomon.

Rice plays a 4-2-5 defense, and they have a decent pair of linebackers this season.  Neither will earn all-conference honors.

The biggest weakness is a porous secondary that surrendered 273 passing yards per game and allowed 67% of enemy passes to be completed.  Opposing quarterbacks averaged better than nine yards per attempt against them.  Any quarterback that averages better than nine yards per attempt for the season, and isn’t an option quarterback throwing eight passes a game, would be a Heisman Trophy finalist.  Safety Travis Bradshaw led the Owls with 121 tackles a year ago and earned 3^rd team all-conference accolades.

Rice could improve by 10 points per game on defense this year.  Let’s call it about 30-35 points and 410-440 yards allowed per game.

Schedule: The Owls need to fire the schedule-maker.  He has guaranteed that they go no better than 1-3 outside of the league and maybe even 0-4.  The only winnable non-league came will be at North Texas.  Rice hosts Northwestern and Baylor, two private schools that could both be bowl-bound this year.  The fourth non-conference game is the opener at Reliant Stadium against Texas.  In league play, Rice could split their eight games and go 4-4, but they have no chance at a winning season unless they win six league games. 

 

 

Team	S M U  Mustangs
Head Coach	June Jones
Colors	Crimson and Blue
City	Dallas, TX
2009 Record
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-5
PiRate Rating	92.3
National Rating	83
2010 Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	7-5

 

Offense: Coach June Jones may draw comparisons to Annie Sullivan before he retires from the game.  Like Sullivan, you can call Jones a “miracle worker.”  He took a weak Hawaii program and created a little dynasty on the island, culminating with a trip to the Sugar Bowl in his last season there.  In just two short seasons in Dallas, he has brought SMU out of a quarter century of doldrums.  The Mustangs returned to a bowl last year for the first time since their pre-Death Penalty days of the 1980’s.

Jones is a mastermind with the passing game, but SMU’s exceptional pass offense will get pushed to the back of the sports pages playing in the same division as Houston.  Quarterback Kyle Padron took over as starter midway through the season following an injury to since departed Bo Levi Mitchell.  The true freshman completed better than 67% of his passes last year for more than 9.5 yards per attempt.  If he can replicate those numbers for a full season, he could top 3,400 yards this year.

SMU lost the services of its best pass receiver in school history.  Emmanuel Sanders took his 98 receptions to the NFL.  Aldrick Robinson has NFL potential.  He caught 47 passes for 800 yards (17.0 avg./catch) last year. 

Missing from the running game is Shawnbrey McNeal, who gained close to 1,200 yards last year.  Jones is very high on true freshmen Darryl Fields and Kevin Pope.  Fields can take a simple dump pass or quick pitch and turn it into a touchdown ala Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans.  Pope has the power to run over defenders. 

The offensive line will be manned by five juniors, four of whom started last year.  Three of the four received some form of postseason honors.

Jones should mold another fine offense in Dallas this year.  Look for the Mustangs to improve to 35+ points and 425+ yards per game this year.

Defense: SMU trimmed 11 points and 80 yards off their poor showing of 2008.  Enough talent returns this year to believe that the Mustangs will continue to show improvement.  The defensive line is the strongest unit on this side.  Ends Marquis Frazier and Taylor Thompson teamed up for 9 ½ sacks.  True freshman Mike O’Guin could step in as the new starting nose tackle.  O’Guin tips the scale at 320 pounds, and he will not be easily moved out of the middle.

Three of the starting four linebackers return.  The best of the quartet is outside ‘backer Pete Fleps, who made 83 tackles.

The secondary could be a problem this year, and in a conference where teams pass the ball 40 to 60 times a game, that could become a big problem.  Cornerback Sterling Moore broke up 11 passes last year, but the Mustangs lost two honorable mention all-conference players who teamed up for eight interceptions and 17 passes knocked away.

A solid pass rush could help hide the liabilities in the secondary, but we believe SMU will give up 225-250 passing yards and 375-400 total yards this year, which leads to about 24-28 points surrendered.

Schedule: The non-conference portion of this schedule is rough.  Look for a 1-3 mark as the Mustangs venture to Texas Tech and Navy and host TCU.  Only a home game with anemic Washington State gives them a shot at a win.  Once league play begins, SMU will be able to compete with anybody on their schedule, even Houston and Tulsa.  We actually believe the Mustangs will pen a loss on Houston and be in the division race until the end.  Road games against Rice and UTEP may determine if SMU can sneak through with a division title.  The Mustangs avoid the top two teams from the East.

 

 

Team	Tulane Green Wave
Head Coach	Bob Toledo
Colors	Olive Green and Sky Blue
City	New Orleans, LA
2009 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	3-9
PiRate Rating	72.2
National Rating	119
2010 Prediction
Conference	0-8
Overall	2-10

 

Offense: It has been eight long years since Tulane last enjoyed a winning season.  The Green Wave has lost eight or more games for five consecutive seasons, and the stigma of Hurricane Katrina still haunts this program.  The Green Wave offense has fallen on hard times, averaging less than 17 points per game the last two seasons.

If TU is to improve on a 3-9 season of a year ago, the offense will have to make a huge leap forward.  Sophomore quarterback Ryan Griffin won’t have to share duties with Joe Kemp this year, as Kemp has been moved to wide receiver.  Griffin could be the best Tulane quarterback since Patrick Ramsey by the time he graduates, but he needs better receivers.  Only one receiver with any real experience returns this year, and Casey Robottom isn’t going to be confused with DeAndre Brown or James Cleveland.

In two seasons, Albert Williams has accumulated 143 rushing yards.  He will be asked to carry the load this year and fill the shoes of last year’s star Andre Anderson.  Expect a major regression here, as TU could rush for less than 100 yards per game.

The offensive line returns four starters, and they have the potential to be an excellent pass blocking front for Griffin.  Center Andrew Nierman is among the best in the league at his position.

It doesn’t look promising for Coach Bob Toledo in his fourth year in New Orleans.  We don’t see him righting the ship in the Crescent City.  Look for Tulane to continue to struggle to score points and access territory.  Call it 17 points and 300-325 yards per game. 

Defense:  The offense looks like a juggernaut compared to this side of the ball.  Tulane has been weak on this side for a long time.  In the last seven years, opponents have averaged an aggregate of 34 points and 415 yards per game.  With but four starters returning on this side of the ball, the Green Wave could be looking at even worse numbers in 2010.

Only one starter returns to the front seven, so this will be a major headache this season.  Tackle Justin Adams is the lone returnee up front, and he is coming off a season in which he registered just 17 tackles.

The secondary has three returning starters, but they will be asked to defend some of the best receivers in the nation for a longer amount of time this year.  None of these experienced defenders will show up on an all-conference team.

We believe Tulane is headed toward a Washington State-type of season.  Look for the Greenies to yield more than 40 points and 450 yards per game this year.

Schedule: Tulane is fortunate that they open at home against Southeast Louisiana.  That could be the only game they win this year.  The Green Wave host Ole Miss and Army and travel to Rutgers out of league play, and these three games look like big losses.  In conference play, it just doesn’t look promising that they can pick up a win.  It doesn’t help that they must play Southern Miss, Central Florida, and Marshall from the other division. 

 

 

Team	Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Head Coach	Todd Graham
Colors	Blue and Gold
City	Tulsa, OK
2009 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	5-7
PiRate Rating	92.8
National Rating	81
2010 Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-4

 

Offense: For a team that averaged 29 points and 410 yards per game last year, it was funny to hear fans mutter, “What’s wrong with our offense?”  Tulsa averaged 44 points and 557 yards per game over the course of the last two years.

The offense should rebound with another stellar season this year, but there are a couple causes for concern.  Offensive coordinator Herb Hand left his position in late July to take a non-coordinator position at Vanderbilt.

Coach Todd Graham hopes the team can hit the ground running and not miss a beat.  He has an experienced attack unit that should be able to get over the loss of their top offensive assistant.

Quarterback G. J. Kinne began his career at Texas before transferring to Tulsa.  He fired the ball 345 times last year and completed 61% for 2,732 yards and 22 touchdowns.  He takes a back seat only to Case Keenum in this conference.  With better pass protection this year, he should add at least 1,000 yards to his 2009 total.

Tulsa has one of the three or four best receivers in CUSA.  Damaris Johnson caught 78 passes for 1,131 yards last year. He is also the best combined kick/punt returner in the league.  Joining him on the other side of the line should be Jameel Owens a transfer from Oklahoma.  Owens has the physical tools to be a great possession receiver.

The running backs are used more for their blocking and pass catching abilities than their running abilities.  Kinne was the leading rusher from the spread formation.  Fullback/H-back Charles Clay rushed for just 236 yards last year, but he caught 39 passes and scored 12 total touchdowns.  At 6-3 and 235, he seldom goes down on first contact.  Graham will rely on as many as six players to share the rushing load.

The offensive line had some difficulties last year, and with four starters and all of the second five returning, look for some improvement.  You will not see the quarterbacks go down 46 times like last year.

Tulsa will rebound with a move back over 35 points and 450 yards per game this year.  If the line improves enough, the Golden Hurricane could top 40 points per game.

Defense: Tulsa has not fielded a strong defense since Dave Kragthorpe was the head coach and Graham was the defensive coordinator.  Graham has indicated that he will take more control over the defense this year.

Six starters have been lost from last year, so it will take a monumental coaching effort to keep Tulsa from giving up 30 or more points per game.  Two starters return up front, but Graham brought in three junior college recruits who could all see considerable time in the trenches this season.  Best of the lot is nose guard Darrell Zellars.

Tulsa uses a 3-3-5 defense with two players, a bandit and a spur, playing a hybrid linebacker/safety position.  Spur DeAundre Brown returns after leading TU with 102 stops last year.  He only picked off one pass, and that was Tulsa’s major weakness on defense.  In fact, no returnee had more than one pick last year.

We see some form of improvement in the 2010 numbers, but how much is a mystery.  Our best guess if 25 points and 375 yards allowed.

Schedule: The non-conference schedule is not overly imposing.  The Golden Hurricane should win at least two and maybe three of their four games.  They face Bowling Green and Central Arkansas at Chapman Stadium, and they go on the road to a rebuilding Oklahoma State and Notre Dame.  In league play, it will all come down to a couple of games.  TU plays at SMU on October 9, at Houston on November 13, and closes the regular season with Southern Miss at home.  If they win two of those games, they will reach double figure victories for the third time in the last four years.  We see at least nine regular season wins.

 

 

Team	U T E P  Miners
Head Coach	Mike Price
Colors	Orange and Navy
City	El Paso, TX
2009 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8
PiRate Rating	82.3
National Rating	103
2010 Prediction
Conference	4-4
Overall	7-5

 

Offense: UTEP has been successful on this side of the ball for the last six years, and 2010 should not be an aberration.  Coach Mike Price returns the best quarterback in the conference not wearing a Houston or Tulsa uniform.  Trevor Vittatoe needs just 2,122 passing yards to become the school’s all-time leading passer.  If he stays healthy, he should do that by late October.  Vittatoe took a step backward last season, but he will have a better offensive line blocking for him this year.

Two quality receivers return for the Miners in wide out Kris Adams and tight end Jonny Moore.  Junior receiver Donavon Kemp has breakaway speed, and if he can learn to hold onto the ball, he could be an “X-factor” in this offense.

The running game has one outstanding rusher but very little depth.  Donald Buckram rushed for nearly 1,600 yards and 18 touchdowns.

The offensive line returns three starters, and the two new starters have past starting experience.  UTEP should move the ball with consistency against every team on the schedule.

This looks like another 30+-point scoring team in the conference.  Call it 32 points and 425 yards this year.

Defense: Poor defensive play has been the Miners’ downfall during the Price era.  The natives are getting restless in El Paso, and another poor showing could bring that era to an end.

The Miners will have troubles up front, where three starters have graduated.  End Robert Soleyjacks is the lone holdover; he made just 19 tackles a year ago.

The linebacking unit loses the defense’s top player from 2009, and there is nobody on the roster who can replace Da’Mon Cromartie-Smith and his 108 tackles.

The news is not any better in the secondary.  Both cornerbacks and the free safety graduated, taking with them 20 deflected passes.  Strong safety Braxton Amy was granted a sixth season of eligibility after missing the last eight games of 2009 to injury.

UTEP will not contend for the division crown because they will not be able to stop the Keenum’s Kinne’s, and Padron’s of the conference.  Look for the Miners to yield 31-34 points and 450 yards per game.

Schedule: UTEP has a chance to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2005 thanks to an easy non-league slate.  The Miners host Arkansas-Pine Bluff and New Mexico State, and they face New Mexico in Albuquerque.  They can win all three of those games.  Only a visit to Arkansas will be bad news.  UTEP avoids UCF and Southern Miss from the East.  They get Memphis, UAB, and Marshall.  We believe they can split their conference games this year and win seven games overall.

 

 

Coming Tomorrow: The WAC Preview—Boise State is primed to run the table once again if the Broncos can get past a tough opening game opponent.