The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 17, 2019

PiRate College Football Ratings: November 17, 2019

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:58 am

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Tuesday

November 19

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

Ohio

-19.2

-18.6

-19.6

Northern Illinois

Eastern Michigan

7.8

7.0

7.7

 

 

Wednesday

November 20

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Buffalo

Toledo

7.2

7.6

7.9

Miami (O)

Akron

28.6

27.9

30.7

 

 

Thursday

November 21

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Tech

North Carolina St.

-1.4

-2.0

-0.8

 

 

Friday

November 22

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Wyoming

Colorado St.

13.6

12.2

13.5

 

 

Saturday

November 23

Home

Visitors

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Appalachian St.

Texas St.

32.6

31.4

33.0

Arizona

Utah

-26.6

-25.9

-27.9

Arizona St.

Oregon

-12.5

-13.4

-13.7

Arkansas St.

Georgia Southern

-3.2

-3.0

-3.3

Baylor

Texas

4.9

4.7

4.3

Charlotte

Marshall

-5.1

-4.4

-5.6

Cincinnati

Temple

10.3

10.4

9.5

Colorado

Washington

-14.7

-14.5

-15.9

Connecticut

East Carolina

-10.7

-9.3

-12.1

Florida Int’l.

Miami (Fla.)

-21.9

-21.8

-23.4

Fresno St.

Nevada

9.6

8.9

10.1

Georgia

Texas A&M

12.9

12.8

14.3

Georgia St.

South Alabama

18.7

17.2

18.5

Hawaii

San Diego St.

1.8

1.5

1.0

Indiana

Michigan

-11.4

-10.9

-11.7

Iowa

Illinois

17.8

15.2

18.0

Iowa St.

Kansas

22.7

22.2

23.3

Kent St.

Ball St.

0.0

0.4

0.5

Louisiana

Troy

9.2

8.9

9.8

Louisville

Syracuse

0.9

1.5

1.6

LSU

Arkansas

47.1

45.0

48.0

Maryland

Nebraska

-2.8

-4.4

-3.4

Massachusetts

BYU

-43.3

-42.0

-44.6

Middle Tennessee

Old Dominion

17.3

16.1

16.8

Missouri

Tennessee

3.4

1.0

3.2

Navy

SMU

-4.8

-2.2

-4.6

New Mexico

Air Force

-22.0

-21.4

-24.2

New Mexico St.

UTEP

8.7

6.8

8.1

Northwestern

Minnesota

-14.6

-15.4

-16.0

Notre Dame

Boston College

19.4

18.6

19.2

Ohio St.

Penn St.

19.8

20.0

21.3

Oklahoma

TCU

18.4

15.3

17.6

Rice

North Texas

-4.9

-3.6

-5.7

Rutgers

Michigan St.

-21.5

-20.8

-21.9

South Florida

Memphis

-13.6

-12.8

-14.3

Southern Miss.

Western Kentucky

6.8

4.8

5.6

Stanford

California

0.0

-0.6

-1.0

Texas Tech

Kansas St.

-1.6

-1.1

-2.3

Tulane

Central Florida

-9.5

-8.1

-9.6

Tulsa

Houston

0.6

0.7

0.1

UAB

Louisiana Tech

-4.4

-2.6

-4.1

UL-Monroe

Coastal Carolina

1.4

0.5

0.9

UNLV

San Jose St.

-2.5

-3.0

-3.3

USC

UCLA

12.2

12.9

13.2

Utah St.

Boise St.

-3.6

-4.3

-2.9

UTSA

Florida Atlantic

-19.8

-18.1

-21.3

Virginia

Liberty

18.6

17.4

18.3

Virginia Tech

Pittsburgh

5.0

5.3

5.6

Wake Forest

Duke

6.2

6.2

6.5

Washington St.

Oregon St.

15.1

13.3

15.7

West Virginia

Oklahoma St.

-5.8

-6.7

-6.0

Wisconsin

Purdue

19.5

19.4

20.0

 

FBS vs.

FCS

PiRate

Alabama

Western Carolina

56

Auburn

Samford

49

Kentucky

UT-Martin

29

Mississippi St.

Abilene Christian

35

North Carolina

Mercer

38

Vanderbilt

East Tennessee

21

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

1

Ohio St.

140.0

139.2

141.3

140.2

2

Clemson

137.6

135.7

138.9

137.4

3

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

4

Alabama

128.9

125.7

129.4

128.0

5

Georgia

127.9

126.2

128.3

127.5

6

Utah

126.6

125.6

127.5

126.6

7

Michigan

125.6

124.3

126.0

125.3

8

Florida

125.6

123.0

125.4

124.6

9

Penn St.

123.2

122.2

123.0

122.8

10

Oklahoma

123.1

122.3

122.6

122.7

11

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

12

Auburn

122.5

120.7

122.1

121.8

13

Wisconsin

120.5

120.2

120.5

120.4

14

Minnesota

118.8

118.5

118.5

118.6

15

Iowa

118.9

117.3

119.0

118.4

16

Notre Dame

118.8

117.6

118.8

118.4

17

Texas A&M

117.9

116.4

117.0

117.1

18

Iowa St.

115.4

116.0

115.8

115.7

19

Washington

114.1

113.8

115.1

114.3

20

Baylor

113.0

113.0

112.3

112.8

21

Washington St.

112.1

111.3

112.5

112.0

22

Central Florida

111.8

111.1

112.3

111.7

23

U S C

110.6

111.1

111.3

111.0

24

Indiana

111.3

110.4

111.3

111.0

25

Texas

110.5

110.8

110.5

110.6

26

Oklahoma St.

110.4

111.1

110.1

110.5

27

Kansas St.

110.6

110.4

110.4

110.5

28

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.5

113.7

110.0

29

Tennessee

110.2

110.0

109.5

109.9

30

Missouri

110.6

108.0

109.7

109.4

31

Kentucky

109.8

108.5

108.7

109.0

32

Miami (Fla.)

108.6

108.3

109.8

108.9

33

Virginia Tech

108.4

108.4

109.3

108.7

34

T C U

107.7

110.0

108.0

108.6

35

South Carolina

109.2

107.4

108.2

108.3

36

Michigan St.

108.7

107.7

107.9

108.1

37

Memphis

107.5

107.6

108.6

107.9

38

Appalachian St.

107.9

107.2

107.5

107.5

39

Virginia

107.4

107.3

107.4

107.4

40

Ole Miss

107.3

106.6

107.4

107.1

41

Cincinnati

106.7

106.2

106.9

106.6

42

Boise St.

106.2

106.4

106.3

106.3

43

North Carolina

105.8

105.6

106.5

106.0

44

Pittsburgh

105.9

105.5

106.2

105.9

45

Texas Tech

105.9

106.3

105.2

105.8

46

Arizona St.

105.9

105.2

106.1

105.8

47

SMU

105.5

105.2

106.2

105.6

48

Air Force

104.1

105.7

105.0

104.9

49

Florida St.

104.5

104.5

104.7

104.6

50

Illinois

104.1

105.0

103.9

104.4

51

Purdue

104.0

103.8

103.4

103.7

52

Nebraska

103.3

103.7

102.4

103.1

53

BYU

102.8

103.0

102.8

102.9

54

California

102.7

102.4

103.2

102.8

55

Wake Forest

102.9

102.1

103.0

102.7

56

Boston College

102.4

102.0

102.6

102.3

57

Syracuse

102.1

101.3

101.4

101.6

58

West Virginia

101.7

101.4

101.1

101.4

59

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.2

101.3

60

Northwestern

101.6

100.6

100.0

100.7

61

Louisiana

100.5

100.8

100.1

100.5

62

Oregon St.

100.0

101.0

99.8

100.3

63

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.2

100.2

64

Louisville

100.0

99.8

100.0

99.9

65

Utah St.

99.6

99.1

100.5

99.7

66

Wyoming

98.9

100.7

99.3

99.6

67

U C L A

99.4

99.2

99.1

99.3

68

Temple

98.8

98.4

99.9

99.0

69

Navy

97.7

100.0

98.5

98.8

70

Florida Atlantic

98.0

98.0

99.4

98.5

71

Duke

98.7

97.9

98.4

98.3

72

Western Michigan

98.3

97.3

98.0

97.9

73

San Diego St.

97.2

98.8

97.1

97.7

74

Georgia Southern

97.3

97.3

97.0

97.2

75

Houston

96.0

96.8

97.8

96.8

76

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

77

Maryland

97.5

96.3

95.9

96.6

78

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.5

97.1

96.4

79

Colorado

96.5

96.3

96.3

96.3

80

Kansas

95.7

96.7

95.6

96.0

81

Hawaii

95.5

96.9

94.6

95.7

82

Army

95.3

95.5

94.8

95.2

83

Louisiana Tech

94.9

95.1

95.2

95.0

84

Fresno St.

94.6

95.6

94.7

95.0

85

North Carolina St.

94.7

94.0

94.3

94.3

86

Tulsa

93.6

94.5

94.9

94.3

87

Troy

94.4

94.9

93.3

94.2

88

Marshall

93.5

93.3

94.5

93.8

89

Western Kentucky

92.9

93.8

94.5

93.7

90

Buffalo

92.7

93.2

93.9

93.2

91

Ohio

93.4

92.4

93.7

93.2

92

Miami (Ohio)

92.5

91.5

93.2

92.4

93

South Florida

91.4

92.3

91.8

91.8

94

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

95

Georgia St.

91.2

92.2

90.7

91.4

96

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.4

90.8

91.1

97

Liberty

90.3

91.4

90.6

90.7

98

Georgia Tech

90.8

89.5

91.0

90.4

99

Ball St.

90.3

89.9

90.4

90.2

100

Northern Illinois

90.1

89.5

90.4

90.0

101

Central Michigan

89.0

89.6

90.0

89.5

102

San Jose St.

88.3

90.2

88.5

89.0

103

U A B

87.9

89.9

88.5

88.8

104

Colorado St.

87.3

90.6

87.8

88.6

105

Nevada

88.1

89.7

87.6

88.5

106

Middle Tennessee

88.6

87.8

88.4

88.3

107

Toledo

88.0

88.1

88.5

88.2

108

Kent St.

87.8

87.8

88.4

88.0

109

North Texas

88.0

87.6

88.3

88.0

110

Coastal Carolina

87.4

88.6

87.2

87.7

111

Arkansas

87.4

87.3

86.6

87.1

112

Charlotte

86.0

86.4

86.4

86.3

113

Louisiana-Monroe

85.7

86.1

85.1

85.6

114

Eastern Michigan

85.3

85.5

85.7

85.5

115

Florida Int’l.

85.7

85.4

85.4

85.5

116

East Carolina

83.9

85.3

84.3

84.5

117

Rutgers

84.7

84.4

83.5

84.2

118

U N L V

82.8

84.3

82.2

83.1

119

Rice

81.1

82.0

80.6

81.3

120

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

121

Texas St.

78.3

78.8

77.5

78.2

122

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.6

75.6

76.3

123

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.5

75.6

76.2

124

South Alabama

75.0

77.5

74.7

75.8

125

Old Dominion

73.9

74.2

74.0

74.0

126

Bowling Green

72.2

71.8

72.1

72.1

127

Connecticut

71.2

74.0

70.2

71.8

128

U T E P

68.6

72.3

69.0

69.9

129

Akron

65.9

65.6

64.5

65.3

130

Massachusetts

56.5

58.0

55.2

56.6

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Central Florida

111.8

111.1

112.3

111.7

4-2

7-3

Cincinnati

106.7

106.2

106.9

106.6

6-0

9-1

Temple

98.8

98.4

99.9

99.0

4-2

7-3

South Florida

91.4

92.3

91.8

91.8

2-4

4-6

East Carolina

83.9

85.3

84.3

84.5

0-6

3-7

Connecticut

71.2

74.0

70.2

71.8

0-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

AAC

Overall

Memphis

107.5

107.6

108.6

107.9

5-1

9-1

SMU

105.5

105.2

106.2

105.6

5-1

9-1

Tulane

99.8

100.5

100.2

100.2

3-3

6-4

Navy

97.7

100.0

98.5

98.8

5-1

7-2

Houston

96.0

96.8

97.8

96.8

1-5

3-7

Tulsa

93.6

94.5

94.9

94.3

1-5

3-7

AAC Averages

97.0

97.7

97.6

97.4

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Clemson

137.6

135.7

138.9

137.4

8-0

11-0

Florida St.

104.5

104.5

104.7

104.6

4-4

6-5

Wake Forest

102.9

102.1

103.0

102.7

3-3

7-3

Boston College

102.4

102.0

102.6

102.3

3-4

5-5

Syracuse

102.1

101.3

101.4

101.6

1-5

4-6

Louisville

100.0

99.8

100.0

99.9

4-3

6-4

North Carolina St.

94.7

94.0

94.3

94.3

1-5

4-6

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

ACC

Overall

Miami (Fla.)

108.6

108.3

109.8

108.9

4-3

6-4

Virginia Tech

108.4

108.4

109.3

108.7

5-2

7-3

Virginia

107.4

107.3

107.4

107.4

5-2

7-3

North Carolina

105.8

105.6

106.5

106.0

3-4

4-6

Pittsburgh

105.9

105.5

106.2

105.9

4-2

7-3

Duke

98.7

97.9

98.4

98.3

2-5

4-6

Georgia Tech

90.8

89.5

91.0

90.4

1-6

2-8

ACC Averages

105.0

104.4

105.3

104.9

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

B12

Overall

Oklahoma

123.1

122.3

122.6

122.7

6-1

9-1

Iowa St.

115.4

116.0

115.8

115.7

4-3

6-4

Baylor

113.0

113.0

112.3

112.8

6-1

9-1

Texas

110.5

110.8

110.5

110.6

4-3

6-4

Oklahoma St.

110.4

111.1

110.1

110.5

4-3

7-3

Kansas St.

110.6

110.4

110.4

110.5

3-4

6-4

T C U

107.7

110.0

108.0

108.6

3-4

5-5

Texas Tech

105.9

106.3

105.2

105.8

2-5

4-6

West Virginia

101.7

101.4

101.1

101.4

2-5

4-6

Kansas

95.7

96.7

95.6

96.0

1-6

3-7

Big 12 Averages

109.4

109.8

109.1

109.4

 

 

Big Ten Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Ohio St.

140.0

139.2

141.3

140.2

7-0

10-0

Michigan

125.6

124.3

126.0

125.3

5-2

8-2

Penn St.

123.2

122.2

123.0

122.8

6-1

9-1

Indiana

111.3

110.4

111.3

111.0

4-3

7-3

Michigan St.

108.7

107.7

107.9

108.1

2-5

4-6

Maryland

97.5

96.3

95.9

96.6

1-6

3-7

Rutgers

84.7

84.4

83.5

84.2

0-7

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

BTen

Overall

Wisconsin

120.5

120.2

120.5

120.4

5-2

8-2

Minnesota

118.8

118.5

118.5

118.6

6-1

9-1

Iowa

118.9

117.3

119.0

118.4

4-3

7-3

Illinois

104.1

105.0

103.9

104.4

4-3

6-4

Purdue

104.0

103.8

103.4

103.7

3-4

4-6

Nebraska

103.3

103.7

102.4

103.1

2-5

4-6

Northwestern

101.6

100.6

100.0

100.7

0-7

2-8

Big Ten Averages

111.6

111.0

111.2

111.2

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Florida Atlantic

98.0

98.0

99.4

98.5

5-1

7-3

Marshall

93.5

93.3

94.5

93.8

5-1

7-3

Western Kentucky

92.9

93.8

94.5

93.7

4-2

6-4

Middle Tennessee

88.6

87.8

88.4

88.3

2-4

3-7

Charlotte

86.0

86.4

86.4

86.3

3-3

5-5

Florida Int’l.

85.7

85.4

85.4

85.5

3-4

5-5

Old Dominion

73.9

74.2

74.0

74.0

0-6

1-9

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

CUSA

Overall

Southern Miss.

96.7

95.5

97.1

96.4

5-1

7-3

Louisiana Tech

94.9

95.1

95.2

95.0

5-1

8-2

U A B

87.9

89.9

88.5

88.8

4-2

7-3

North Texas

88.0

87.6

88.3

88.0

3-3

4-6

Rice

81.1

82.0

80.6

81.3

1-5

1-9

Texas-San Antonio

75.7

77.5

75.6

76.2

3-3

4-6

U T E P

68.6

72.3

69.0

69.9

0-7

1-9

CUSA Averages

86.5

87.1

86.9

86.8

 

 

FBS Independents

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

Conf.

Overall

Notre Dame

118.8

117.6

118.8

118.4

x

8-2

BYU

102.8

103.0

102.8

102.9

x

6-4

Army

95.3

95.5

94.8

95.2

x

5-6

Liberty

90.3

91.4

90.6

90.7

x

6-4

New Mexico St.

75.8

77.6

75.6

76.3

x

1-9

Massachusetts

56.5

58.0

55.2

56.6

x

1-10

Indep. Averages

89.9

90.5

89.6

90.0

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Buffalo

92.7

93.2

93.9

93.2

3-3

5-5

Ohio

93.4

92.4

93.7

93.2

3-3

4-6

Miami (Ohio)

92.5

91.5

93.2

92.4

5-1

6-4

Kent St.

87.8

87.8

88.4

88.0

3-3

4-6

Bowling Green

72.2

71.8

72.1

72.1

2-4

3-7

Akron

65.9

65.6

64.5

65.3

0-6

0-10

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MAC

Overall

Western Michigan

98.3

97.3

98.0

97.9

5-2

7-4

Ball St.

90.3

89.9

90.4

90.2

3-3

4-6

Northern Illinois

90.1

89.5

90.4

90.0

3-3

4-6

Central Michigan

89.0

89.6

90.0

89.5

5-2

7-4

Toledo

88.0

88.1

88.5

88.2

3-3

6-4

Eastern Michigan

85.3

85.5

85.7

85.5

2-4

5-5

MAC Averages

87.1

86.9

87.4

87.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

Boise St.

106.2

106.4

106.3

106.3

6-0

9-1

Air Force

104.1

105.7

105.0

104.9

5-1

8-2

Utah St.

99.6

99.1

100.5

99.7

5-1

6-4

Wyoming

98.9

100.7

99.3

99.6

3-3

6-4

Colorado St.

87.3

90.6

87.8

88.6

3-3

4-6

New Mexico

79.6

81.8

78.2

79.9

0-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

MWC

Overall

San Diego St.

97.2

98.8

97.1

97.7

5-2

8-2

Hawaii

95.5

96.9

94.6

95.7

4-3

7-4

Fresno St.

94.6

95.6

94.7

95.0

2-4

4-6

San Jose St.

88.3

90.2

88.5

89.0

1-5

4-6

Nevada

88.1

89.7

87.6

88.5

3-3

6-4

U N L V

82.8

84.3

82.2

83.1

1-6

2-8

MWC Averages

93.5

95.0

93.5

94.0

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Oregon

121.5

121.6

122.8

122.0

7-0

9-1

Washington

114.1

113.8

115.1

114.3

3-4

6-4

Washington St.

112.1

111.3

112.5

112.0

2-5

5-5

California

102.7

102.4

103.2

102.8

2-5

5-5

Stanford

101.8

100.9

101.2

101.3

3-5

4-6

Oregon St.

100.0

101.0

99.8

100.3

4-3

5-5

 

 

South Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

P12

Overall

Utah

126.6

125.6

127.5

126.6

6-1

9-1

U S C

110.6

111.1

111.3

111.0

6-2

7-4

Arizona St.

105.9

105.2

106.1

105.8

2-5

5-5

U C L A

99.4

99.2

99.1

99.3

4-3

4-6

Arizona

97.0

96.8

96.5

96.8

2-5

4-6

Colorado

96.5

96.3

96.3

96.3

2-5

4-6

Pac-12 Averages

107.3

107.1

107.6

107.4

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

Georgia

127.9

126.2

128.3

127.5

6-1

9-1

Florida

125.6

123.0

125.4

124.6

7-2

9-2

Tennessee

110.2

110.0

109.5

109.9

3-3

5-5

Missouri

110.6

108.0

109.7

109.4

2-4

5-5

Kentucky

109.8

108.5

108.7

109.0

3-5

5-5

South Carolina

109.2

107.4

108.2

108.3

3-5

4-7

Vanderbilt

92.5

90.9

90.9

91.4

1-6

2-8

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SEC

Overall

L S U

131.5

129.3

131.6

130.8

6-0

10-0

Alabama

128.9

125.7

129.4

128.0

6-1

9-1

Auburn

122.5

120.7

122.1

121.8

4-3

7-3

Texas A&M

117.9

116.4

117.0

117.1

4-2

7-3

Mississippi St.

109.8

106.5

113.7

110.0

2-5

4-6

Ole Miss

107.3

106.6

107.4

107.1

2-5

4-7

Arkansas

87.4

87.3

86.6

87.1

0-6

2-8

SEC Averages

113.7

111.9

113.5

113.0

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

East Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Appalachian St.

107.9

107.2

107.5

107.5

5-1

9-1

Georgia Southern

97.3

97.3

97.0

97.2

4-2

6-4

Troy

94.4

94.9

93.3

94.2

3-3

5-5

Georgia St.

91.2

92.2

90.7

91.4

3-3

6-4

Coastal Carolina

87.4

88.6

87.2

87.7

1-5

4-6

 

 

West Division

Team

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Average

SBC

Overall

Louisiana

100.5

100.8

100.1

100.5

5-1

8-2

Arkansas St.

91.1

91.4

90.8

91.1

4-2

6-4

Louisiana-Monroe

85.7

86.1

85.1

85.6

3-3

4-6

Texas St.

78.3

78.8

77.5

78.2

2-4

3-7

South Alabama

75.0

77.5

74.7

75.8

0-6

1-9

SBC Averages

90.9

91.5

90.4

90.9

 

Conference Power Ratings

#

League

Average

1

Southeastern

113.0

2

Big Ten

111.2

3

Big 12

109.4

4

Pac-12

107.4

5

Atlantic Coast

104.9

6

American

97.4

7

Mountain West

94.0

8

Sun Belt

90.9

9

Independents

90.0

10

Mid-American

87.1

11

Conference USA

86.8

 

 

Our Guess at Top 6

1

LSU

2

Ohio St.

3

Clemson

4

Georgia

5

Utah

6

Alabama

 

 

Top 5 Group of 5

1

Cincinnati

2

Memphis

3

Boise St.

4

SMU

5

Navy

 

This Week’s Playoffs and Bowl Projections

 

The Bowl Conundrum

The 2019-2020 bowl season is potentially going to present many mismatches with at-large teams having to fill spots left not taken by Power 5 Conference teams.

The chief problem this season will be the SEC. There will most likely be nine bowl eligible teams, but there could be as few as seven.

Let’s take a look at the most likely scenarios coming from the supposedly premier conference in college football.

LSU and Georgia could be headed to the playoffs if they both win out, and then Georgia pulls off a mild upset in the SEC Championship Game. There is also a small chance that Alabama could sneak back into the picture if LSU beats Georgia, and then Alabama thrashes Auburn on The Plains to show the Committee that losing Tua Tagovailoa didn’t weaken the Tide enough to knock them out of the Playoff picture. Either way, there is a decent chance that the SEC gets two teams in the Playoffs, especially if Oklahoma loses another game and Utah beats Oregon in the Pac-12.

Alabama and Florida are almost assured of receiving New Year’s Six Bowl Bids, and if Alabama sneaks into the Playoffs, then Georgia will replace the Tide in a New Year’s Six Bowl.

The Citrus bowl would then take Auburn. Texas A&M is almost a cinch to go to the Texas Bowl this year, where some backroom deals are being made to place Texas in there as a dream match-up. Tennessee is one win away from a possible destination in Jacksonville in the Gator Bowl, while Kentucky needs only to beat UT-Martin this week to earn a trip to a possible Outback Bowl game against a possible neighboring rival.

At this point, there are no more happy guarantees for the great SEC. Mississippi State is going to beat Abilene Christian this weekend to get to 5-6, but then they must turn around and face Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving Day, while the Rebels get this week off to prepare an extra few days. The way the two teams are playing presently, Ole Miss looks like the superior team, so we will count out Mississippi State at 5-7.

Missouri is 5-5, and the Tigers still have to play Arkansas, so even though they have lost four consecutive games, Mizzou is going to be 6-6. The Tigers are still in limbo with the NCAA. While Missouri is on probation and has a bowl ban, their legal team has filed an appeal, and the NCAA has yet to rule on it and might not rule on it until after bowl bids have been issued. It looks like the NCAA is going to turn the other cheek to help the SEC out, and then rule after the bowl season on the matter, or they could rule that Missouri has done enough in-house corrections to get a reprieve. Then, again, there is a lot of dissension going on in Columbia, and the school may choose to close up shop after the Arkansas game and self-impose on taking a meaningless bowl game at 6-6.

The SEC has agreements with 11 bowls not including the Playoffs. If two SEC teams make the Playoffs, then the SEC will have the need for 13 bowl eligible teams and will most likely have eight or nine bowl eligible teams. If Maalox wants to create a nice promotion, they will send free cases of their product to the members of the Music City, Liberty, Birmingham, and Independence Bowls, and possibly the Belk Bowl.

With the possibility of some really weak bowl match-ups, you can expect this season to produce at least one if not two or three “backroom” deals to place better at-large teams in the bowls where the opponent is a Power Five team. A 9-3 Power Conference team playing a 6-6 Group of 5 team just cannot be allowed.

What you see in our Bowl Projections are the raw projections strictly following the bowl rules. As information leaks about potential back-room deals, we will try to stay on top of all the news and rumors.

Here is a conference by conference look at the bowl eligible teams and those that can still become bowl eligible.

American Athletic

Bowl Eligible: 7
Memphis, SMU, Navy, Tulane, Cincinnati, Central Florida, Temple

Still Alive: South Florida

If either Memphis or Cincinnati win out to capture the AAC Title, that team will head to the Cotton Bowl as the Group of 5 best champion. SMU could also earn this bid if Cincinnati beats Memphis in the regular season, while the Mustangs win out, including beating Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game. Navy has a remote chance at getting to the Cotton Bowl. Memphis and SMU would both have to lose in the regular season, while Navy wins out and beats Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game, and Boise State would have to lose in the Mountain West.
South Florida merely has to beat Memphis and Central Florida to earn a bowl, so it isn’t going to be a Bulls Market this year.

Atlantic Coast (+ Notre Dame)

Bowl Eligible: 9
Clemson, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia Tech, Virginia, Miami (Fla.), Pittsburgh

Still Alive: Boston College, Duke, North Carolina, N. Carolina St., and Syracuse

Clemson has the best chance of any team of going 13-0 before the Playoffs, but we are starting to see just a little extra possibility that if Virginia Tech takes care of Pittsburgh and Virginia, the Hokies will be a little more formidable than the experts are given them credit for being. Va. Tech was dismissed for dead earlier in the season, but Justin Fuente has done an incredible job re-shaping the Hokie team to where they look like the second best team in the league. If Tech beats Pitt and Virginia, they will most likely be the Orange Bowl representative even if Clemson pounds them in the ACC Championship Game.

At this point, our forecast calls for North Carolina to top Mercer and NC State to finish 6-6 and grab the last bowl spot that goes to the ACC. We don’t see a path to 6-6 for the other teams still alive.

Big 12

Bowl Eligible: 6
Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Iowa St., Texas, Kansas St.

Still Alive: TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia

The PiRate Ratings do not forecast Oklahoma to win out and sneak into the Playoffs, but don’t assume we are picking Baylor to get revenge in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Sooners have to go to Stillwater to face the much-improved Cowboys, and we believe Oklahoma St. has a very decent chance to pull off the upset and ruin the league’s chances to get into the Playoffs.

Of the teams still fighting for bowl eligibility, we believe TCU can beat West Virginia in Fort Worth to get their sixth win, but Tech and the Mountaineers might both be staring at 5-7 seasons.

Big Ten

Bowl Eligible: 7

Ohio St., Penn St., Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois

Still Alive: Michigan St., Nebraska, Purdue

This is the most interesting race for the Playoffs and Bowl seeding. First, Ohio State must now close with wins against Penn State, Michigan, and the Western Division Champion in the Conference Championship Game to guarantee a Playoff spot. Only the Penn State game is in the Giant Horseshoe. We remember 50 years ago quite well, when an 8-0 Ohio State team that many were calling the greatest college football team since Army in 1945, went to the Big House to play a two-loss Michigan team that remembered being thrashed in Columbus the previous year. That Ohio State team was a double-digit favorite and got thrashed by a Michigan defense that played well over its potential that day.

Assuming Ohio State handles Penn State this weekend, could history repeat itself 50 years later? Of course, James Franklin has a history of getting underdog teams psyched up to win big road games, so the Nittany Lions could still be in the Big Ten Championship picture.

On the other side, Minnesota still controls its own destiny, but then so does Wisconsin. The Gophers did everything but beat Iowa in Iowa City, as the Hawkeyes frequently win games at home with final stats that on paper look like they lost by a couple of touchdowns. The Gophers get Wisconsin in Minneapolis.

There is even a bizarre scenario where Illinois could win the West Division flag. This requires Minnesota to lose to Northwestern and Wisconsin; for Wisconsin to lose to Purdue, while the Illini beat Iowa and Northwestern. The chances for this to happen are about the same as Lovie Smith taking over Alabama for Nick Saban in 2020.

Michigan State is now 4-6, and the Spartans look like an offense from the days of one platoon football. Their defense has fallen apart with all the extra snaps it has had to face, but now Sparty catches a break. MSU closes with Rutgers and Maryland, so the Green and White have about a 95% chance of improving to 6-6 and getting a bottom tier bowl bid.

Nebraska is 4-6 with games remaining against Maryland and Iowa. We have a suspicion that Scott Frost will have his team prepared to face the Hawkeyes at Memorial Stadium and will pull off the upset to close at 6-6 and get the final bowl bid in this league.

Purdue must beat both Wisconsin and Indiana to get to 6-6, and by the time they play for the Old Oaken Bucket, their long snapper might be the backup quarterback. Better luck next year Boilermakers.

Because the Big Ten has the most strict bowl tie-ins, certain teams cannot go to certain bowls if they have been to them in the last five years. What this means is:

The Citrus Bowl will not invite Michigan, Minnesota, or Penn State

The Outback Bowl will not invite Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, or Wisconsin

The Holiday Bowl will not invite Michigan St., Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, or Wisconsin

The Gator Bowl will not invite Iowa or Penn St.

The Pinstripe Bowl will not invite Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State, or Wisconsin

The Redbox Bowl will not invite Indiana, Maryland, Michigan St., Nebraska, or Purdue

The Quick Lane Bowl will not invite Minnesota

Conference USA

Bowl Eligible: 6
Florida Atlantic, Marshall, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss., UAB

Still Alive: Charlotte, Florida Int’l., North Texas, UTSA

Marshall holds the tiebreaker over Florida Atlantic, so it the Thundering Herd beat Charlotte and FIU, they will be East Division champs. In the West, Louisiana Tech controls their destiny, but if the Bulldogs lose to UAB, then Southern Miss can win out and take the division flag.

Of the teams still alive, Charlotte and North Texas have the best chances to get to six wins, while FIU and UTSA have close to zero chances to do so. Because this league could have eight bowl eligible teams, and they have just five primary tie-ins, two or three teams will get at-large invitations, and deals could be made to send better teams to at-large spots.

Independents (not Notre Dame)

Bowl Eligible: 2
BYU, Liberty

Still Alive: Army

BYU has earned its guaranteed Hawaii Bowl bid with its sixth win. Liberty doesn’t have a primary bowl bid, but the Flames have a secondary agreement with the Cure Bowl. Since the AAC is likely to send its champion to the Cotton Bowl, the Cure Bowl bid could be there for Liberty.

Army must beat Hawaii in Hawaii and Navy to get to 7-6. We don’t see it happening this year.

Mid-American

Bowl Eligible: 4
Miami (O), Central Michigan, Toledo, Western Michigan

Still Alive: Buffalo, Kent St., Ohio, Ball St., Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois

Not having a dominating team and having to play games on Tuesdays and Wednesdays have led to MACtion being one big season-long toss-up with a lot of parity. Miami of Ohio has already clinched the East Division title, as the Red Hawks hold all potential tiebreakers over Buffalo, Ohio, and Kent St. The West is a different story as four teams are still technically alive. Western Michigan will win the division if the Broncos beat both Ohio and Northern Illinois, but both games are on the road, and we don’t believe WMU will go 2-0.

Central Michigan must win at Ball State and then beat Toledo at home and then hope that WMU loses to Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois and Toledo are still mathematically alive in the race but need multiple things to happen to sneak into the top spot in the West.

There are still six teams trying to become eligible, and by the time the regular season concludes, we believe the MAC will have eight bowl eligible teams with five teams at 6-6. Not all these 6-6 teams will have bowl spots available to them, but the MAC should receive at least one extra bowl invitation and possibly two.

Mountain West

Bowl Eligible: 7
Air Force, Boise St., Utah St., Wyoming, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego St.

Still Alive: Colorado St., Fresno St., San Jose St.

Boise State must win out and hope for the AAC to implode and produce a two-loss league champion in order for the Broncos to ascend to the Cotton Bowl. Boise St. could be 12-1 and relegated to the Las Vegas Bowl. If that happens, and the Pac-12 has a 6-6 team available, there is a chance that a deal could be made to send the Pac-12 team east and bring a 10 or 11-win team like Appalachian State or SMU to Vegas. Or, Boise State could be sent east to play in a Liberty, Music City, or Belk Bowl where no SEC team is available.

Air Force is looking at 10-2 and another potential bad bowl match-up, and because the Falcons can basically bring the entire Academy, they can fill up a bowl stadium even if it’s 1,500 miles from Colorado Springs.

In the West, the winner of the San Diego State-Hawaii game this week gets to face Boise State with a chance for the big upset. Technically, Air Force and Utah State are still alive in the Mountain, but Boise State has to lose twice for that to happen.
Of the three teams still with a chance to become bowl eligible, Colorado State has to beat both Wyoming and Boise State, so the Rams are staying home for the holidays. Fresno State and San Jose State are looking at a season finale where they will face off in San Jose with probably 5-6 records. The Spartans look like the stronger team in November, so we’ll give SJSU the final bid.

Pac-12

Bowl Eligible: 4
Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah

Still Alive: California, Oregon St., Stanford, Washington St. Arizona, Arizona St., Colorado, UCLA

The entire conference is still alive for a bowl! That’s a blessing and a curse. There is so much parity that when USC beat Utah, they severely damaged this league’s chance to sneak a team into the Playoffs. Even if either Utah or Oregon wins out to finish 12-1, they are almost assuredly relegated to Pasadena and not to the Playoffs. Oregon dominated Auburn until the final few minutes to start the season, and that game is just as important as the Utah loss to the Trojans.

Of the eight remaining teams not yet bowl eligible, we believe that three will get to six wins. Arizona, Colorado, Stanford, and UCLA don’t look like they have enough talent to win the games they must win to get to 6-6. Any 6-6 team in this league will be in a bowl.

Southeastern

Bowl Eligible: 6
Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M

Still Alive: Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi St.

See above for the explanation for the SEC. We believe nine teams will be bowl eligible, or eight if Missouri either self-imposes a bowl ban, or the NCAA denies their appeal before December.

Sunbelt

Bowl Eligible: 5
Appalachian St., Georgia Southern, Georgia St.. Arkansas St., Louisiana

Still Alive: Coastal Carolina, Troy, UL-Monroe

It will take a monumental chain of events for Appy State and Lousiana not to meet in the SBC Championship Game. Georgia St., Georgia Southern, and Troy all still hold miniscule division title hopes in the East, while Arkansas St. and UL-Monroe are still mathematically alive in the West.

This is the only conference where we don’t see an additional team still alive becoming bowl eligible.

This Week’s Projections

Bowl

Conf

Conf

Team

Team

Bahamas

MAC

CUSA

Miami (O)

Florida Atlantic

Frisco

AAC

At-large

SMU

[Nevada]

Cure

AAC

SBC

[Liberty]

Georgia St.

New Mexico

CUSA

MWC

Southern Miss.

San Diego St.

Boca Raton

AAC

MAC

Cincinnati

Central Michigan

Camellia

MAC

SBC

Ball St.

Arkansas St.

Las Vegas

MWC #1

Pac-12

Boise St.

California

New Orleans

CUSA

SBC #1

Louisiana Tech

Appalachian St.

Gasparilla

AAC

CUSA

Navy

Western Kentucky

Hawaii

BYU/MWC

AAC

BYU

Central Florida

Independence

ACC

SEC

Florida St.

[Charlotte]

Quick Lane

ACC

Big Ten

North Carolina

Michigan St.

Military

ACC

AAC

Wake Forest

Temple

Pinstripe

ACC

Big Ten

Pittsburgh

Illinois

Texas

Big 12

SEC

Texas

Texas A&M

Holiday

Pac-12

Big Ten

USC

Michigan

Cheez-It

Big 12

Pac-12

Kansas St.

Washington St.

Camping World

ACC

Big 12

Notre Dame

Iowa St.

Cotton

At-large

At-large

Memphis

Baylor

First Responder

CUSA

Big 12

Marshall

[Utah St.]

Redbox

Pac-12

Big Ten

Washington

Iowa

Music City

SEC

ACC

[Eastern Michigan]

Virginia

Orange

ACC

BTen/SEC

Virginia Tech

Florida

Belk

ACC

SEC

Miami (Fla.)

Missouri

Sun

ACC

Pac-12

Louisville

Arizona St.

Liberty

Big 12

SEC

TCU

[North Texas]

Arizona

SBC

MWC

Louisiana

Hawaii

Alamo

Big 12

Pac-12

Oklahoma St.

Oregon

Citrus

SEC

BTen/ACC

Auburn

Wisconsin

Outback

Big Ten

SEC

Minnesota

Tennessee

Rose

Big Ten

Pac-12

Penn St.

Utah

Sugar

Big 12

SEC

Oklahoma

Alabama

Birmingham

AAC

SEC

Tulane

[UAB]

Taxslayer/Gator

SEC

Big Ten

Kentucky

Indiana

Idaho Potato

MAC

MWC

Toledo

Wyoming

Armed Forces

Big Ten

MWC

Nebraska

Air Force

Mobile Alabama

MAC

SBC

Western Michigan

Georgia Southern

FBS PLAYOFFS

Fiesta

Top 4

Top 4

Georgia

Ohio St.

Peach

Top 4

Top 4

Clemson

LSU

Championship

Fiesta

Peach

Georgia

Clemson

Teams in [Brackets] are at-large selections

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

August 18, 2019

2019 Southeastern Conference Football Preview

Current Penn State and former Vanderbilt football coach James Franklin once said, “The three toughest conferences in football are the NFC, AFC, and SEC.”  Even though Clemson has taken Alabama to the woodshed twice in three years, the SEC is still the class of college football.  Clemson has no rival in the ACC like Alabama has in the SEC.  There are no Georgia, LSU, Florida, or Texas A&M types in the ACC.  Clemson played Texas A&M last year; it was a close game, and the Aggies had a chance to win it.  They go to Clemson early this season, and it is probably the only game Clemson will have to worry about until the Playoffs.

In the East Division, Georgia is the only team that has won the SEC Championship in the last 10 seasons.  The Bulldogs won the 2017 title, and they led Alabama in the National Championship Game until Tua Tagovailoa came off the bench and became the best quarterback to wear the Crimson since Ken Stabler and Joe Namath.  Georgia lost to LSU last season and then led Alabama into the second half in the Championship Game, before Tua rallied the Tide again.  Can the third year be the charm?  Coach Kirby Smart has star quarterback Jake Fromm and talented running back D’Andre Swift back behind a tough offensive line.  The receiving corps is thin on experience but has some talent, and with Fromm throwing the ball, the passing game will top 200 yards a game.

The Bulldog defense had a little trouble stopping some enemy quarterbacks last year, but the secondary will be improved in 2019.  The Bulldog defense should yield 17 or less points per game, and Georgia has a chance to go 12-0 and get that third chance in a row to stop the Tide.

Florida won 10 games in Dan Mullen’s first year as head coach in the Swamp.  The Gators should be Georgia’s principle competitor this year, but Mullen has some rebuilding to do on the attack side.  Feleipe Franks is a near star at quarterback.  If he stays healthy, Franks should pass for 3,000 yards this year, as Florida has a receiving corps that rivals Alabama’s in the league.  A defense that returns a lot up front and in back could give the Gators a chance in Jacksonville against the Bulldogs.

Unless an appeal is successful, Missouri will be on probation this year and not eligible for the SEC Championship Game, the Playoffs, or a bowl.  The Tigers might be the dark horse in the division, and if eligibility is restored, this team might be good enough to sneak into the division title picture, probably in a three-way tie.  Former Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant replaces Drew Lock at quarterback, and the Missouri offense will be a little different, using Bryant’s ability to run.  The Tigers have an excellent receiving corps, led by a potential Mackie Award-winning tight end Albert Okwuegbunam.  The Missouri defense is not up to the standards of Florida and Georgia, but Coach Barry Odom has been gifted with a plum of a schedule this year.  The Tigers have a chance to go to Georgia on November 9 with an 8-0 record.

South Carolina and Tennessee are teams in transition.  The Gamecocks are trying to stay relevant against a tough schedule, while Tennessee is trying to return to relevance after several years under .500 in the SEC.  The Gamecocks are looking at a mild rebuilding year with a young, inexperienced defense that gave up more than 27 points last year.  Having to compete with Florida and Georgia is tough, but USC has three tough non-conference opponents, in rival Clemson plus North Carolina and Appalachian St.

Tennessee returns the most starters of any team in a power 5 conference, and the Vols have a rather strong group of redshirt freshmen available for second year coach Jeremy Pruitt.  Pruitt is a master defensive specialist, and the Volunteers will improve on their 2018 numbers of 28 points and 377 yards per game allowed.  The Big Orange offense was inconsistent last year, and it won’t be championship quality this year.  With Jim Chaney brought on board as offensive coordinator, Tennessee should be a little more consistent in 2019, and the Vols should improve to the plus side of .500 and make a bowl game.

Kentucky had its best season since 1977 in 2018, but the Wildcats face a major rebuilding year under Coach Mark Stoops.  The Wildcats lost All-American Josh Allen off the defense, and even if they returned the rest of that unit, it would mean the defense would be weaker.  Unfortunately, UK lost six other starters from this side of the ball, and it was defense that allowed UK to win 10 games last year.  The offense also lost seven starters, including star running back Benny Snell.  Terry Wilson is a serviceable quarterback, but he’s not going to shred defensive backfields like Fromm or Franks in the East.

Vanderbilt is the perennial choice for last place in the East Division, but Coach Derek Mason has been able to produce bowl eligibility twice in three years, even having to play a tough non-conference foe in those years.  The Commodores lost star quarterback Kyle Shurmur, but they bring in former Ball State starter Riley Neal, and Neal has the talent to equal or even top the production given by Shurmur.  With running back Keyshawn Vaughn returning after leading the SEC in rushing, and with a receiving corps that is deep and talented, the Commodores could average more than 400 total yards and 30 points per game this year.  Unfortunately, the defense may give up even more, and that is why Vandy might not be as dandy in 2019.  The losses of secondary stars Joejuan Williams and Ladarius Wiley will be tough on an inexperienced pass defense.

In the West, Alabama is the odds-on favorite to go 12-0, win the SEC Championship Game, and then win the semifinal game in the Playoffs, where a rematch with Clemson will excite college football fans from coast to coast.  In the Nick Saban years in Tuscaloosa, the Tide has had numerous stars drafted into the NFL, and it looked Saban had a little rebuilding to do.  At Alabama, one future star replaces a former star.  There is no such thing as rebuilding when you perpetually have the number one recruiting class in college football.  With Tagovailoa returning at quarterback, and with the best receiving corps outside of the NFL, Alabama should have no trouble topping 40 or even 45 points and 300-350 passing yards per game.  The Crimson Tide has the SEC’s best defense yet again, but they could be a tad vulnerable against some tough running backs and top of the line quarterbacks (like Fromm).  It will not be a cakewalk for the Crimson Tide this year.  One team is liable to upset them along the way, but whether that team can also finish 7-1 in the league and win the crown is highly unlikely.

LSU appears to have the best chance of dethroning the King.  The Tigers won 10 games last year but did not compete with Alabama, losing at home 29-0.  Coach Ed Orgeron has done a fine job recruiting talent to Baton Rouge, and in quarterback Joe Burrow, he has a potentially great passer, something that has prevented the Tigers from beating Alabama in recent years.  Defensively, the Tigers have the best defense not wearing crimson, and the LSU secondary might be the best in the nation.  It will give the Tigers a chance to stop Tua and the Tide.  An early game against Texas in Austin should give the nation a great look to see if LSU has what it takes to knock off the Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium in November.

Texas A&M faces an impossible schedule.  They play Clemson, Alabama, LSU, and Georgia, which is just plain brutal.  Second year coach Jimbo Fisher has worked wonders in his short time in College Station, but the A&M defense is going to be battered and bruised by these top notch offenses.  The Aggies could average more than 40 points per game in the other eight contests, and it would not be a surprise to see them upset one of those four powers.  At the same time, Auburn, Mississippi State, and South Carolina might sneak up and upset the Aggies.  8-4 is about the best that can be expected under these circumstances.

Auburn also has an impossible schedule this year, as in addition to Alabama, LSU, and Texas A&M in the West, the Tigers have their annual game against Georgia, and then they must commence play against a tough Oregon team in a neutral site game.  With the loss of Jarrett Stidham and his top two targets, the offense may take a step backwards.  The defense should be quite strong, but in the SEC West, the Tigers could lose a lot of 21-17 games.  Coach Gus Malzahn is in a bit of a pickle on the Plains, and if War Eagles don’t win nine times this year, Gus may be on the bus out of town.

Mississippi State might be strong enough to compete for a division title in the Pac-12 or Big 12, but in the SEC West, they are probably not even in the top four.  In a league with incredibly talented defenses, the Bulldogs had the best of all in 2018, holding nine teams under 14 points.  Still, it led to only an 8-5 season, and the Maroons have issues on the offensive side of the ball this year, especially the all-important passing game.  Only a strong chance of going 4-0 outside the league will guarantee the Bulldogs bowl eligibility.

Arkansas might be the true sleeper of the league this year.  Second year coach Chad Morris had a major transition when he came to Fayetteville and switched the Razorbacks from a smash mouth offense to a more finesse spread offense.  He didn’t have the personnel to make the offense shine.  He will have a lot more of the necessary pieces this season, and he has a quarterback that can make the offense go.  Ben Hicks was Morris’s quarterback at SMU, when the Mustangs passed for close to 300 yards and scored 38 points per game in 2017.  He won’t replicate those numbers in the SEC, but Arkansas should top 28 points per game and challenge for a 6-6 record and bowl eligibility.

Ole Miss comes off probation this year, and the Rebels can become eligible for a bowl once again.  Unfortunately, the Rebels face a major rebuilding and transitioning with new offensive and defensive coordinators.  The offense welcomes Rich Rodriguez, and his read-option spread to the SEC.  The West Division foes have many years experience facing a nearly identical offense at Auburn, so it will not be something new and surprising.  The Rebels will not be as talented or competent at Auburn running this offense, so Ole Miss should see a considerable dip in production on this side of the ball.  Of course, losing quarterback Jordan Ta’amu and three star receivers would hurt no matter what offense was being run.  Defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre has a lot more experience to work with on his side of the ball, but the Rebels lack the talent to compete against the rest of the West.  It could be a long year in Oxford.

Here is how the SEC Media voted in the preseason poll.

 

Southeastern Conference Media Poll
 

 

East Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall
1 Georgia 233 1789
2 Florida 21 1499
3 Missouri 3 1149
4 S. Carolina 1 883
5 Tennessee 1 804
6 Kentucky 1 798
7 Vanderbilt 0 358
 

 

West Division
Pos. Team 1st Place Votes Overall
1 Alabama 253 1813
2 LSU 5 1493
3 Texas A&M 0 1268
4 Auburn 1 1090
5 Mississippi St. 1 769
6 Ole Miss 0 504
7 Arkansas 0 343
 

 

Championship Game Winner Overall Votes
Alabama 203
Georgia 49
LSU 3
Mississippi St. 1
Tennessee 1
Florida 1
South Carolina 1
Auburn 1

 

The PiRate Ratings show just how strong the league begins the 2019 season.  Ten teams begin 2019 at least 10 points better than the average FBS school.

 

Preseason PiRate Ratings–SEC

 

East Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 126.2 123.6 126.6 125.5
Florida 120.5 117.8 119.5 119.2
Missouri 115.3 112.4 115.3 114.3
S. Carolina 114.0 112.2 113.9 113.4
Tennessee 112.6 111.6 111.1 111.8
Kentucky 109.5 107.5 108.3 108.4
Vanderbilt 104.3 103.3 103.4 103.7
 

 

West Division
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 135.6 130.6 136.4 134.2
L S U 123.3 120.4 122.0 121.9
Texas A&M 118.6 116.6 117.0 117.4
Auburn 116.8 114.4 115.9 115.7
Mississippi St. 117.0 112.5 116.7 115.4
Ole Miss 102.0 101.1 100.7 101.3
Arkansas 100.0 100.5 99.3 100.0
 

 

SEC Averages 115.4 113.2 114.7 114.4

 

Note:  These preseason ratings are accurate as of August 1, 2019, and subject to change before the first week of the season due to personnel changes prior to the first week of the season.

 

Predicted Won-Loss Records

The PiRate Ratings were not created to forecast won-loss records like other ratings might attempt.  Our ratings are valid for just the next game on the teams’ schedules, and we have pre-set adjustments built into our ratings on many teams.  For instance, if a team has exceptional starting talent but little depth, their rating has a pre-set reduction per week of the season, so that even if they win or lose a game by the exact expected margin, they will lose some of their power rating due to their depth issues.

If a team has exceptional, but inexperienced talent, their rating will have a pre-set addition per week of the season, and even if their performance may be exactly what was expected, their power rating will rise.

What you see in these predicted won-loss records are our opinion and not calculated from the ratings.  These are the estimated records based on a vote, with the Captain having 50% of the vote and the crew having the other 50%.  The Captain then rounded up or down those teams picked to have an average wins that were not whole numbers.

 

PiRate Members Predicted Won-Loss

 

East Division

Pos Team Conf. Overall
1 Georgia 8-0 12-1
2 Florida 6-2 10-2
3 Missouri 5-3 9-3
4 Tennessee 3-5 7-5
5 South Carolina 3-5 6-6
6 Kentucky 2-6 6-6
7 Vanderbilt 2-6 5-7
 

 

West Division

Pos Team Conf. Overall
1 Alabama 8-0 13-0*
2 LSU 6-2 10-2
3 Texas A&M 5-3 8-4
4 Auburn 4-4 8-4
5 Mississippi St. 3-5 7-5
6 Ole Miss 2-6 5-7
7 Arkansas 1-7 5-7
 

*

 

Alabama picked to win SEC Championship Game

 

Coaches That Could Be In Line To Get A Top 10 Job

Most of the coaches are already at a program that either is a top 10 job or has the potential to be.  However, there is one coach that could advance to a bigger program

Mark Stoops, Kentucky

 

Coaches on the Hot Seat

Gus Malzahn, Auburn

Will Muschamp, South Carolina

 

Malzahn’s seat is considerably hotter than Muschamp’s seat.  If Auburn does not find a way to finish in the top three in the SEC West, there will most likely be a change on the Plains.

 

Top Quarterbacks

We have been showcasing three and sometimes four quarterbacks in the other conferences, but there is NFL Draft potential deep into the ranking of SEC quarterbacks.

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

Jake Fromm, Georgia

Feleipe Franks, Florida

Kellen Mond, Texas A&M

Kelly Bryant, Missouri

Jake Bentley, South Carolina

Joe Burrow, LSU

Jarrett Guarantano, Tennessee

 

Best Offense

Alabama

Georgia

Missouri

 

Best Defense

Alabama

LSU

Florida

 

Coming Tomorrow:  It’s finally here!  This is week 0 of the NCAA Football season.  There are two games Saturday, and that means we will debut the full regular season ratings.  Look for our first weekly report tomorrow.

Here’s how we expect to release our information this year.

Mondays: Updated College Football Ratings and Spreads for the week’s FBS games

Tuesdays: Updated NFL Ratings and Spreads for the week’s games

Thursdays: Our PiRate Rating picks for the week’s college and NFL games

Very Important Reminder: The members of the PiRate Ratings do not wager on football games.  We issue our selections just for entertainment purposes only and remind you that they are presented free of charge.  You get what you paid for, so don’t go wagering your mortgage payment on our advice.

That said, the PiRate Picks have returned narrow overall profits for four consecutive seasons.  Our claim to fame is finding Money Line Parlays that return better than even money odds.  Thus, we can hit on just 40% of them and still turn a profit, because the average parlay has +150 to +180 odds.  This means that if you place $1 on a parlay at +180 odds, if you win, you will receive $2.80 back from the Nevada books (Your $1 investment plus a profit of $1.80 for winning the parlay).  If you win 30% of your wagers at +150, you will turn a profit of 5%.  If you can win one of every three parlays at an average of +150, your profit is 16.7%, more than the average return in the stock market over time.  Of course, over time, your chances of profiting in the stock market nears 100%, where in football wagering,  your chances of profiting remains at 47.6%, unless you have inside information.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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