PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast For Week 1: September 6-10, 2018

PiRate Ratings NFL Ratings for Week 1

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
New England	105.4	106.2	105.4	105.7	20
Miami	97.4	96.4	97.4	97.0	21.5
N. Y. Jets	96.8	96.8	97.2	96.9	22.5
Buffalo	95.4	95.3	95.2	95.3	18.5
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Pittsburgh	106.0	106.2	105.6	105.9	22
Baltimore	99.6	100.4	99.9	100.0	23
Cincinnati	97.5	97.6	97.3	97.5	20
Cleveland	94.4	94.1	94.6	94.4	22
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Jacksonville	103.1	102.9	103.3	103.1	21.5
Houston	99.1	99.1	98.8	99.0	24.5
Tennessee	97.3	97.6	97.1	97.3	21.5
Indianapolis	94.7	92.9	94.4	94.0	22
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Kansas City	102.7	102.7	102.8	102.7	23.5
LA Chargers	101.9	103.0	102.2	102.4	20
Denver	98.5	98.1	97.7	98.1	21
Oakland	95.9	96.4	96.2	96.2	21
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Philadelphia	102.5	103.1	101.9	102.5	23.5
Dallas	99.7	99.8	99.5	99.7	21
Washington	98.5	97.6	98.6	98.2	22
N.Y. Giants	97.2	97.1	97.2	97.2	19.5
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Minnesota	104.5	104.5	104.4	104.5	19.5
Detroit	101.1	100.9	101.0	101.0	24.5
Green Bay	100.6	102.1	100.3	101.0	22.5
Chicago	98.8	98.1	99.3	98.7	18.5
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
New Orleans	107.2	107.2	107.4	107.3	23.5
Atlanta	104.4	104.3	104.8	104.5	21.5
Carolina	101.9	101.3	102.0	101.7	22
Tampa Bay	94.4	93.9	94.9	94.4	22
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
LA Rams	104.6	105.7	105.1	105.1	25.5
Seattle	101.0	100.7	101.0	100.9	21.5
San Francisco	98.8	99.3	98.8	99.0	23.5
Arizona	99.3	98.5	98.9	98.9	20.5

Week 1 PiRate Ratings Spread & Totals

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Total
Philadelphia	Atlanta	0.6	1.4	-0.4	45
Cleveland	Pittsburgh	-9.5	-10.1	-9.0	44
Minnesota	San Francisco	9.2	8.7	9.1	43
Indianapolis	Cincinnati	-0.8	-2.8	-0.9	42
Baltimore	Buffalo	7.7	8.6	8.2	41.5
N.Y. Giants	Jacksonville	-3.9	-3.7	-4.1	41
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	15.8	16.3	15.5	45.5
New England	Houston	8.8	9.7	9.1	44.5
Miami	Tennessee	2.0	0.8	2.3	43
L.A. Chargers	Kansas City	2.3	3.3	2.4	43.5
Denver	Seattle	0.1	-0.1	-0.8	42.5
Carolina	Dallas	4.7	4.0	5.0	43
Arizona	Washington	4.3	4.3	3.8	42.5
Green Bay	Chicago	4.7	7.0	4.0	41
Detroit	N.Y. Jets	7.2	7.1	6.8	47
Oakland	L.A. Rams	-6.7	-7.3	-6.9	46.5

2018-19  Won-Loss Projections & Playoff Projections

AFC
East	W	L	T
New England	12	4	0
Miami	6	10	0
N. Y. Jets	6	10	0
Buffalo	4	12	0
North	W	L	T
Pittsburgh	12	4	0
Baltimore	8	8	0
Cincinnati	6	10	0
Cleveland	4	12	0
South	W	L	T
Jacksonville	10	6	0
Houston	9	7	0
Tennessee	8	8	0
Indianapolis	5	11	0
West	W	L	T
Los Angeles	11	5	0
Kansas City	9	7	0
Denver	7	9	0
Oakland	6	10	0
N F C
East	W	L	T
Philadelphia	10	6	0
Dallas	7	9	0
Washington	5	11	0
N.Y. Giants	4	12	0
North	W	L	T
Minnesota	12	4	0
Green Bay	10	6	0
Detroit	9	7	0
Chicago	7	9	0
South	W	L	T
New Orleans	11	5	0
Atlanta	10	6	0
Carolina	9	7	0
Tampa Bay	6	10	0
West	W	L	T
Los Angeles	12	4	0
Seattle	8	8	0
Arizona	7	9	0
San Francisco	6	10	0

This Week’s NFL Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Pittsburgh
2	New England
3	L.A. Chargers
4	Jacksonville
5	Kansas City
6	Houston
NFC Seeding
1	L.A. Rams
2	Minnesota
3	New Orleans
4	Philadelphia
5	Green Bay
6	Atlanta

Wildcard Round

L.A. Chargers over Houston

Jacksonville over Kansas City

Philadelphia over Green Bay

Atlanta over New Orleans

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

New England over L.A. Chargers

L.A. Rams over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Minnesota

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh over New England

L.A. Rams over Philadelphia

Super Bowl 53

Pittsburgh over L.A. Rams

 

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 14: December 8-12, 2016

Week 13 begins the final stretch in the NFL, as the 32 teams are all on the same closing schedule with 12 games played and four to go.  The Flex Scheduling has kicked in, and it becomes time to look at tiebreakers with competing teams.

If you want to take a look at the lengthy tiebreaker rules, you can find them at the NFL’s webpage at http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures.

Here is a look at who would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

AFC
1	Oakland
2	New England
3	Baltimore
4	Houston
5	Kansas City
6	Denver
NFC
1	Dallas
2	Seattle
3	Detroit
4	Atlanta
5	N.Y. Giants
6	Tampa Bay

Of course, the season does not end today, and our new projections show some changes in the rankings above, especially in the AFC West, where Oakland faces a difficult closing stretch, and Kansas City has a somewhat easier road in the final four games.

Our Projected Playoffs

AFC Seeding
1	New England
2	Kansas City
3	Pittsburgh
4	Indianapolis
5	Oakland
6	Denver
NFC Seeding
1	Dallas
2	Seattle
3	Detroit
4	Tampa Bay
5	N.Y. Giants
6	Washington

And, our projected playoff outcomes for this week

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh over Denver

Oakland over Indianapolis

Detroit over Washington

N. Y. Giants over Tampa Bay

Divisional Round

New England over Oakland

Kansas City over Pittsburgh

Dallas over N. Y. Giants

Seattle over Detroit

Conference Championship

Kansas City over New England

Seattle over Dallas

Super Bowl 51

Seattle over Kansas City

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
New England	109.1	107.9	110.0	109.0	67	42
Buffalo	102.1	102.3	102.4	102.3	63	39
Miami	97.0	97.4	97.1	97.1	59	38
N. Y. Jets	95.6	94.5	96.0	95.4	57	38
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Pittsburgh	104.8	104.4	105.4	104.9	63	42
Cincinnati	101.5	101.2	101.7	101.5	60	42
Baltimore	100.8	101.8	100.6	101.1	61	40
Cleveland	87.7	88.6	87.4	87.9	55	33
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Indianapolis	98.4	99.9	98.0	98.8	62	37
Tennessee	97.8	98.9	97.5	98.1	61	37
Houston	97.0	97.8	96.3	97.0	61	36
Jacksonville	93.1	94.5	92.7	93.4	58	35
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Denver	105.6	104.5	105.2	105.1	63	42
Kansas City	104.0	103.8	104.5	104.1	64	40
Oakland	102.3	102.8	103.1	102.7	67	36
San Diego	99.3	100.1	99.1	99.5	64	36
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Dallas	104.9	104.2	105.5	104.9	63	42
Washington	101.6	101.3	101.6	101.5	63	39
Philadelphia	100.0	98.8	99.5	99.4	60	39
N.Y. Giants	99.2	98.8	99.3	99.1	62	37
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Minnesota	102.4	101.7	102.2	102.1	59	43
Detroit	101.4	101.1	101.3	101.3	62	39
Green Bay	99.8	99.6	99.7	99.7	64	36
Chicago	93.7	92.7	93.5	93.3	56	37
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Atlanta	104.7	105.4	104.7	104.9	70	35
Tampa Bay	101.5	101.6	101.6	101.6	63	39
Carolina	101.1	101.1	101.1	101.1	60	41
New Orleans	100.1	100.9	100.3	100.4	67	33
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Seattle	108.3	106.1	108.8	107.7	63	45
Arizona	102.7	101.6	102.7	102.3	63	39
Los Angeles	96.5	97.3	96.1	96.7	55	42
San Francisco	88.5	89.5	87.9	88.6	54	35

This Week’s NBA Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Totals
Kansas City	Oakland	4.7	4.0	4.4	57
Buffalo	Pittsburgh	-0.2	0.4	-0.5	46
Carolina	San Diego	4.8	4.0	5.0	45
Cleveland	Cincinnati	-11.8	-10.6	-12.3	41
Detroit	Chicago	10.2	10.9	10.3	40
Indianapolis	Houston	4.4	5.1	4.7	51
Jacksonville	Minnesota	-6.3	-4.2	-6.5	38
Miami	Arizona	-2.7	-1.2	-2.6	47
Philadelphia	Washington	0.4	-0.5	-0.1	47
Tampa Bay	New Orleans	4.4	3.7	4.3	59
Tennessee	Denver	-4.8	-2.6	-4.7	47
San Francisco	New York Jets	-4.1	-2.0	-5.1	38
Green Bay	Seattle	-5.5	-3.5	-6.1	48
Los Angeles	Atlanta	-5.2	-5.1	-5.6	48
New York Giants	Dallas	-2.7	-2.4	-3.2	48
New England	Baltimore	10.3	9.1	12.4	48

 

 

 

PiRate Picks for October 10-14, 2013

This Week’s Themes

In recent weeks, our college money line parlays have done quite well, so we are going to play four of those this week.

 

We have yet to utilize the 13-point sweetheart teaser to tease the totals on NFL games, but a couple of weeks of test runs have seen good returns.  So, we are throwing in a couple of those this week.

 

We do not feel totally comfortable with any straight sides advice this week, so we will use the 13-point teasers for our remaining selections as well.

 

REMEMBER THIS: DO NOT use these selections to lose your mortgage payment.  We never wager real money, or the fake stuff printed by the Federal Reserve, on these picks.  These are only offered for entertainment fun.  You should know that you get what you pay for, and these selections are free.

 

1. 13-point Teaser

Pittsburgh + 22 ½ vs. Virginia Tech

Troy – 4 ½ vs. Georgia St.

Texas Tech – 1 ½ vs. Iowa St.

Rice +14 ½ vs. UT-San Antonio

 

2. 13-point Teaser

Nebraska – 1 ½ vs. Purdue

Florida +20 vs. L S U

Northwestern +23 ½ vs. Wisconsin

Michigan +10 ½ vs. Penn St.

 

3. Money Line Parlay @ -106

Troy over Georgia St.

Northern Illinois over Akron

Army over Eastern Michigan

Buffalo over Western Michigan

 

4. Money Line Parlay @ -114

Ohio over Central Michigan

B Y U over Georgia Tech

East Carolina over Tulane

 

5. Money Line Parlay @ -105

Stanford over Utah

Oklahoma over Texas

Michigan St. over Indiana

 

6. Money Line Parlay @ -108

Houston over Memphis

U N L V over Hawaii

Texas Tech over Iowa St.

 

7. 13-point Teaser

Chicago +5 ½ vs. N. Y. Giants

Kansas City +4 vs. Oakland

Philadelphia +12 vs. Tampa Bay

Baltimore +16 vs. Green Bay

 

8. 13-point Teaser

Minnesota +10 ½ vs. Carolina

N. Y. Jets +10 ½ vs. Pittsburgh

Buffalo +20 vs. Cincinnati

Seattle – ½ vs. Tennessee

 

9. 13-point Teaser

Denver -14 ½ vs. Jacksonville

New England +10 ½ vs. New Orleans

Dallas + 7 ½ vs. Washington

Indianapolis +11 ½ vs. San Diego

 

10. 13-point Teaser

Chicago & N.Y. Giants OVER 34 ½

Kansas City & Oakland OVER 27 ½

Minnesota & Carolina OVER 31

St. Louis & Houston OVER 30

 

11. 13-point Teaser

N. Y. Jets & Pittsburgh UNDER 54

Seattle & Tennessee UNDER 53 ½

Arizona & San Francisco OVER 28 ½

Dallas & Washington OVER 38 ½

 

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 13: November 29-December 3, 2012

Big Clearing In Playoff Picture

More teams played themselves out of the playoff picture this past week than played themselves into the playoff picture.  In the NFC, we can now count out Dallas, New Orleans, and Detroit, and we can begin the count on Minnesota.  In the AFC, we can now call the KO on the Jets, Buffalo, San Diego, and Tennessee.

 

Cincinnati and Miami made forward moves in the AFC, while Washington placed themselves in position to be in position if they can pull off the big win this week against the Giants.

 

Here is how we project the race to end along with a look at how we think the playoffs will go.

 

A F C

1. New England 13-3-0 (Pats can run the table even without Gronk)

2. Houston 13-3-0 (Lose at Foxboro and then to Indy in meaningless week 17 game)

3. Denver 12-4-0 (Broncos could run table, but we think they will slip at Oakland)

4. Baltimore 12-4-0 (Sweeps Pittsburgh, but falls to Denver to end #4)

5. Indianapolis 10-6-0 (Finishes 5^th based on better AFC record)

6. Pittsburgh 10-6-0 (Week 16 game with Cincinnati decides this spot)

 

N F C

1. Atlanta 14-2-0 (1 ½ game lead over 49ers too much to fall from #1)

2. San Francisco 11-4-1 (Tough road games at Pats and Seahawks keep 49ers here)

3. Chicago 11-5-0 (Cutler has to stay healthy or Bears fall lower)

4. New York Giants 9-7-0 (Giants won it all from this spot last year)

5. Green Bay 10-6-0 (Injuries and age make this spot a bit precarious)

6. Seattle 9-7-0 (Seahawks edge Tampa Bay based on better NFC record)

 

Playoff Scenario

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh at Denver (Peyton exploits ailing Steeler defense)

Indianapolis at Baltimore (Ravens win by double digits)

Seattle at Chicago (If Cutler plays entire game, Bears win by about 6)

Green Bay at New York Giants (Giants win by less than 28 this time)

 

Divisional Round

Baltimore at New England (Old-fashioned dogfight in inclement weather—Bal wins)

Denver at Houston (Peyton leads Broncos to AFC Championship Game)

New York Giants at Atlanta (Giants repeat chances stay alive in upset)

Chicago at San Francisco (49ers win in a shootout even against healthy Cutler)

 

Conference Championships

New York Giants at San Francisco (49ers get their revenge in a blowout)

Baltimore at Denver (Peyton comes through again and sends Broncos to Super Bowl)

 

Super Bowl

San Francisco vs. Denver (First overtime game in Super Bowl history goes to 49ers)

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New York Giants	106.4	105.3	104.7	104.0	3
Washington Redskins	100.0	100.2	100.4	100.5	2
Dallas Cowboys	98.8	98.9	99.0	99.0	2
Philadelphia Eagles	93.6	91.9	91.1	90.0	3.5
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Chicago Bears	107.0	105.6	104.7	104.0	3.5
Green Bay Packers	105.7	104.0	102.0	102.0	3
Detroit Lions	99.9	99.3	100.4	98.5	3
Minnesota Vikings	96.4	97.9	98.6	99.5	3.5
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Atlanta Falcons	105.3	106.3	106.2	107.5	2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	102.2	101.9	100.4	101.5	3
New Orleans Saints	102.0	101.5	101.4	101.0	2.5
Carolina Panthers	95.4	95.5	97.5	95.5	1
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
San Francisco 49ers	110.2	108.5	104.9	106.5	1.5
Seattle Seahawks	103.1	102.6	102.3	102.0	5
Arizona Cardinals	96.4	94.4	96.1	92.0	2.5
St. Louis Rams	95.6	96.5	96.9	97.5	3.5
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New England Patriots	111.6	109.9	106.5	108.0	1.5
Miami Dolphins	98.5	98.7	98.8	99.0	1.5
New York Jets	98.1	96.7	95.5	95.0	3.5
Buffalo Bills	95.6	96.5	100.1	97.5	3
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Baltimore Ravens	104.6	105.5	105.9	106.5	3.5
Cincinnati Bengals	102.0	102.7	102.8	103.5	3
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.7	101.6	100.9	102.5	3.5
Cleveland Browns	95.3	95.9	97.5	96.5	2
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Houston Texans	107.6	108.3	108.6	109.0	3
Indianapolis Colts	94.3	98.1	100.0	102.5	4.5
Tennessee Titans	94.0	95.4	96.1	97.0	2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	92.0	92.7	93.1	93.5	0.5
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Denver Broncos	108.3	107.9	105.9	107.5	3
San Diego Chargers	98.9	98.3	99.8	97.5	3
Oakland Raiders	90.3	91.8	92.5	93.5	4
Kansas City Chiefs	90.2	89.9	89.7	89.5	2

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vintage	Vegas	Totals
ATLANTA	New Orleans	5.3	6.8	6.8	8.5	3 1/2	56
CHICAGO	Seattle	7.4	6.5	5.9	5.5	4	38
GREEN BAY	Minnesota	12.3	9.1	6.4	5.5	9	46 1/2
San Francisco	ST. LOUIS	11.1	8.5	4.5	5.5	7	40
N. Y. JETS	Arizona	5.2	5.8	2.9	6.5	4 1/2	36 1/2
Carolina	KANSAS CITY	3.2	3.6	5.8	4.0	3	40 1/2
DETROIT	Indianapolis	8.6	4.2	3.4	-1.0	4 1/2	51
BUFFALO	Jacksonville	6.6	6.8	10.0	7.0	6	45
New England	MIAMI	11.6	9.7	6.2	7.5	7 1/2	51
Houston	TENNESSEE	11.1	10.4	10.0	9.5	5 1/2	47
DENVER	Tampa Bay	9.1	9.0	8.5	9.0	7	50 1/2
BALTIMORE	Pittsburgh	7.4	7.4	8.5	7.5	NL	NL
Cleveland	OAKLAND	1.0	0.1	1.0	-1.0	-1 1/2	45
Cincinnati	SAN DIEGO	0.1	1.4	0.0	3.0	1 1/2	46
DALLAS	Philadelphia	7.2	9.0	9.9	11.0	9	43
N. Y. Giants	WASHINGTON	4.4	3.1	2.3	1.5	2 1/2	51

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 12: November 22-26, 2012

Interesting Races In Six Divisions

With six games to go for everybody, six of the eight divisions still have interesting races, be it for a divisional championship or wildcard contention.

AFC East

This is one of the two divisions that does not have an interesting race.  New England has a three-game lead over its other three rivals, and even with the loss of Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots will coast to an easy division title.

Buffalo is the only team of the back three that we see has a chance to get hot and go on a run to finish 9-7-0.  Even at 9-7-0, there is a good chance they would miss out on the playoffs.  This week’s game at Indianapolis may be the most important game left on their schedule.

AFC North

Baltimore now has a two-game lead over Pittsburgh, and it looks like the Ravens will keep that lead.  Pittsburgh needs Ben Roethlisberger to come back sooner rather than later, because Cincinnati could easily finish on a hot streak and nip them for second.  For now, we project Pittsburgh to edge out the Bengals and take one of the two wildcard spots.

AFC South

Houston is cruising to a division title, but the surprising Indianapolis Colts are in the thick of the wildcard race.  If the Colts continue to hold serve at home and pick up one road win from among Detroit, Houston, and Kansas City, they will take the second wildcard berth.  The schedule looks very favorable, because their three remaining home games are very winnable (especially if Houston does not need to win secure home field advantage in week 17.

AFC West

This is the other division with little excitement.  Peyton Manning proved he still has what it takes to win, and the Broncos are running away with the division title.  San Diego is underachieving for more than likely the last year under Norv Turner.

NFC East

The mediocrity division could possibly be won by an 8-8-0 team this year and should be won by a 9-7-0 team.  The New York Giants swooned in the middle of their schedule last year, losing four in a row by an average of 13 points per game.  They recovered to finish 9-7-0 but were outscored for the season before getting hot in the playoffs.

Dallas could easily be tied with the Giants by Sunday night, but don’t count out Washington yet.  If the Redskins win on Thanksgiving Day, and the Giants lose to Green Bay, RGIII and company will be one game out of first, and the Giants still have to visit Fedex Field.

NFC North

The old black and blue division is perhaps the most interesting race in the NFL.  With Jay Cutler sidelined the last six quarters, Chicago has become the Cookie Monsters of the Midway.  One Cutler comes back, the Bears should rebound, but Lovie Smith has to find a better way to provide Cutler protection.

Green Bay is not the power they were the last two seasons, but the Packers have enough horses remaining to get to 11-5 and guarantee themselves a playoff spot.

Minnesota is one of those teams that can be on and look like the Vikings of old or off and look like the Vikings of the last two years.  The Purple and White’s schedule is too difficult to get to 10-6.

NFC South

Atlanta built up too much of a lead to lose it, but New Orleans may be the better team at the present time.  Then, there’s Tampa Bay.  All three teams have enough talent and play well enough together to make a deep playoff run.

We believe the Buccaneers and Saints could finish in a tie for second, but one game shy of making it to the postseason.

NFC West

San Francisco’s situation is somewhat like Minnesota’s.  The 49ers can look like the 1985 Bears one week and the 2009 49er team the next.  However, using interpolation, if they continue this 50-50 trait, they will finish 11-4-1, 10-5-1 at the least.

Seattle is the big intangible in the entire league.  The Seahawks are tough at home and decent on the road.  They could easily go 3-0 at home from here on, and they could win two of their three road games (Miami, Chicago, Buffalo).  We believe Pete Carroll will be back in the playoffs this year.  If the Seahawks can win out and nip San Francisco for the division title, nobody will want to visit Centurylink Field in January.

PiRate Projections

NFC East	Projection
New York Giants	9-7-0
Dallas Cowboys	7-9-0
Philadelphia Eagles	5-11-0
Washington Redskins	7-9-0
NFC North
Green Bay Packers	11-5-0
Chicago Bears	11-5-0
Minnesota Vikings	9-7-0
Detroit Lions	7-9-0
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons	13-3-0
New Orleans Saints	9-7-0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9-7-0
Carolina Panthers	4-12-0
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers	10-5-1
Seattle Seahawks	10-6-0
St. Louis Rams	4-11-1
Arizona Cardinals	4-12-0
AFC East
Buffalo Bills	8-8-0
Miami Dolphins	6-10-0
New England Patriots	12-4-0
New York Jets	7-9-0
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens	13-3-0
Pittsburgh Steelers	11-5-0
Cincinnati Bengals	9-7-0
Cleveland Browns	3-13-0
AFC South
Houston Texans	14-2-0
Indianapolis Colts	10-6-0
Tennessee Titans	6-10-0
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-14-0
AFC West
Denver Broncos	12-4-0
San Diego Chargers	6-10-0
Oakland Raiders	6-10-0
Kansas City Chiefs	1-15-0

 

Projected Playoff Seeds

A F C

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. New England

4. Denver

5. Pittsburgh

6. Indianapolis

 

N F C

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. San Francisco

4. New York Giants

5. Chicago

6. Seattle

 

Wildcard Round

Indianapolis at New England

Pittsburgh at Denver

Seattle at San Francisco

Chicago at New York Giants

 

Division Round

Lower Seeded Winner at Houston

Higher Seeded Winner at Baltimore

Lower Seeded Winner at Atlanta

Higher Seeded Winner at Green Bay

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New York Giants	104.8	103.9	103.4	103.0	2.5
Dallas Cowboys	99.5	100.1	100.4	101.0	2.5
Washington Redskins	99.3	99.3	99.3	99.5	2.5
Philadelphia Eagles	94.6	92.8	92.0	91.0	2.5
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Green Bay Packers	107.3	106.6	104.7	106.0	2.5
Chicago Bears	106.6	103.9	102.7	101.0	2
Detroit Lions	99.6	99.5	100.8	99.5	2.5
Minnesota Vikings	96.8	99.4	100.6	102.5	3.5
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Atlanta Falcons	105.1	106.6	106.8	108.5	2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	102.4	102.4	100.7	102.5	2.5
New Orleans Saints	102.3	103.5	104.1	105.0	3
Carolina Panthers	94.4	94.6	96.8	95.0	1.5
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
San Francisco 49ers	109.9	108.2	105.0	106.5	2.5
Seattle Seahawks	103.5	103.4	103.4	103.5	4.5
Arizona Cardinals	97.6	95.8	97.4	94.0	3
St. Louis Rams	94.4	95.8	96.4	97.5	3.5
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New England Patriots	110.4	108.3	104.8	106.0	2
New York Jets	99.3	98.1	96.9	97.0	3
Miami Dolphins	98.1	97.7	97.8	97.5	1
Buffalo Bills	96.1	96.9	100.1	98.0	3
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Baltimore Ravens	104.8	105.0	105.2	105.5	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	101.4	101.8	100.7	102.5	3
Cincinnati Bengals	101.4	101.8	102.0	102.5	4
Cleveland Browns	94.6	94.7	96.1	95.0	2
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Houston Texans	107.9	108.1	108.2	108.5	2.5
Tennessee Titans	94.5	96.3	97.1	98.5	2.5
Indianapolis Colts	93.8	97.1	98.7	101.0	4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	91.5	91.9	92.1	92.5	0.5
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Denver Broncos	109.0	108.0	105.4	107.0	3
San Diego Chargers	98.7	97.8	99.5	97.0	3
Oakland Raiders	90.9	91.8	92.2	93.0	4
Kansas City Chiefs	89.5	88.9	88.7	88.5	2

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vintage	Vegas	Totals
Houston	DETROIT	5.8	6.1	4.9	6.5	3	50 1/2
DALLAS	Washington	2.7	3.3	3.6	4.0	3	47 1/2
New England	N. Y. JETS	8.1	7.2	4.9	6.0	6 1/2	48
CINCINNATI	Oakland	14.5	14.0	13.8	13.5	8	49
Pittsburgh	CLEVELAND	4.8	5.1	2.6	5.5	Pk	NL
INDIANAPOLIS	Buffalo	2.2	4.7	3.1	7.5	3	51
Denver	KANSAS CITY	17.5	17.1	14.7	16.5	10 1/2	44
Tennessee	JACKSONVILLE	2.5	3.9	4.5	5.5	3	43 1/2
CHICAGO	Minnesota	11.8	6.5	4.1	0.5	Pk	NL
Atlanta	TAMPA BAY	0.2	1.7	3.6	3.5	1	48 1/2
Seattle	MIAMI	4.4	4.7	4.6	5.0	3	37 1/2
Baltimore	SAN DIEGO	3.1	4.2	2.7	5.5	Pk	47
San Francisco	NEW ORLEANS	4.6	1.7	-2.1	-1.5	1 1/2	NL
ARIZONA	St. Louis	6.2	3.0	4.0	-0.5	2 1/2	37 1/2
N. Y. GIANTS	Green Bay	0.0	-0.2	1.2	-0.5	2 1/2	49 1/2
PHILADELPHIA	Carolina	2.7	0.7	-2.3	-1.5	2 1/2	NL

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 11: November 15-19, 2012

The Playoff Race—Is It Already Decided?

If the playoffs ended today, the 12 teams included would be:

AFC

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. Denver

4. New England

5. Pittsburgh

6. Indianapolis

 

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. San Francisco

4. New York Giants

5. Green Bay

6. Seattle

 

According to our ratings, these 12 teams project to remain the dozen that will make the playoffs.  We have very little change in our projections.

 

In the AFC, we believe the four division winners are already locked up.  Additionally, Pittsburgh should hang onto the top wildcard spot, even with the temporary quarterback issues.

 

We project the Colts to go 3-4 the rest of the way, while Cincinnati has an easy finishing schedule.  We see the Bengals closing 5-2.  Indianapolis has a 2 1/2 –game conference lead over Cincinnati, and if the Bengals and Colts finished tied at 9-7-0, Indy would own the tiebreaker in almost every scenario.

 

In the NFC, we are high on Seattle and believe the Seahawks have the most favorable schedule in the league.  It would not surprise us at all if Coach Pete Carroll’s team wins six of its final seven games and overtakes San Francisco by a half game.  We believe the two wildcard teams will have five losses apiece, so in order for a Minnesota at 6-4-0 or Tampa Bay at 5-4-0 to make the playoffs, they would have to lose no more than one more game.

 

Here is how we project the playoffs as of November 14, 2012:

 

A F C

1. Houston 15-1-0

2. Baltimore 13-3-0

3. New England 12-4-0

4. Denver 12-4-0

5. Pittsburgh 12-4-0

6. Indianapolis 9-7-0

 

N F C

1. Atlanta 15-1-0

2. Chicago 12-4-0

3. Seattle 11-5-0

4. New York Giants 9-7-0

5. Green Bay 11-5-0

6. San Francisco 10-5-1

 

Playoff Projections

Wildcard Round

New England over Indianapolis

Denver over Pittsburgh

Seattle over San Francisco

Green Bay over New York Giants

 

Divisional Round

Denver over Houston

Baltimore over New England

Atlanta over Green Bay

Seattle over Chicago

 

Conference Championships

Baltimore over Denver

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

Baltimore over Atlanta

 

Current PiRate Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New York Giants	104.8	103.7	102.9	102.1	2.5
Dallas Cowboys	100.3	99.6	99.1	98.6	2.5
Philadelphia Eagles	97.2	97.3	97.1	97.1	2.5
Washington Redskins	96.7	96.8	96.6	96.6	2
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Chicago Bears	108.5	107.5	106.6	106.1	2
Green Bay Packers	107.2	106.4	104.3	105.2	2.5
Detroit Lions	99.7	100.0	101.7	100.1	2.5
Minnesota Vikings	96.8	99.6	100.8	102.6	3.5
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Atlanta Falcons	105.4	106.5	106.0	107.6	3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	102.8	102.4	100.2	101.6	2.5
New Orleans Saints	100.7	102.0	102.9	103.2	3
Carolina Panthers	94.0	94.4	96.7	94.6	1.5
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
San Francisco 49ers	108.0	106.5	103.5	104.6	2
Seattle Seahawks	103.5	103.4	103.2	103.1	4.5
Arizona Cardinals	97.3	95.7	96.9	93.6	3
St. Louis Rams	96.5	97.8	98.3	99.1	4.5
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New England Patriots	108.8	106.3	102.8	103.1	1.5
Miami Dolphins	98.7	98.5	98.0	98.1	1
New York Jets	97.2	95.9	94.7	94.1	3
Buffalo Bills	95.5	96.6	99.6	97.6	3
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Baltimore Ravens	104.1	104.9	105.1	105.6	4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	102.1	102.7	101.1	103.1	3
Cincinnati Bengals	99.7	100.5	101.2	101.1	4
Cleveland Browns	93.8	94.1	95.2	94.1	2
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Houston Texans	110.1	109.6	109.1	108.7	3
Indianapolis Colts	95.4	98.6	100.0	102.1	4
Tennessee Titans	94.5	96.5	97.3	98.6	2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	89.3	90.3	90.6	91.1	0.5
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Denver Broncos	109.4	108.4	105.6	107.1	3
San Diego Chargers	98.3	97.9	99.7	97.1	3
Oakland Raiders	92.5	93.1	93.3	93.6	4.5
Kansas City Chiefs	91.2	90.3	89.7	89.1	2

 

Note: HFA is not merely home field advantage.  It is a combination of home field advantage plus the next opponents’ visiting team disadvantage.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vintage	Vegas	Totals
Miami	BUFFALO	0.2	-1.1	-4.6	-2.5	-1 1/2	45 1/2
WASHINGTON	Philadelphia	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	3 1/2	43 1/2
Green Bay	DETROIT	5.0	3.9	0.1	2.6	3 1/2	51 1/2
ATLANTA	Arizona	11.1	13.8	12.1	17.0	10	44
Tampa Bay	CAROLINA	7.3	6.5	2.0	5.5	1 1/2	48 1/2
DALLAS	Cleveland	9.0	8.0	6.4	7.0	7 1/2	43 1/2
ST. LOUIS	New York Jets	3.8	6.4	8.1	9.5	3	38 1/2
NEW ENGLAND	Indianapolis	14.9	9.7	4.3	2.5	9	53 1/2
HOUSTON	Jacksonville	23.8	22.3	21.5	20.6	15 1/2	40 1/2
Cincinnati	KANSAS CITY	6.5	8.2	9.5	10.0	3 1/2	43 1/2
New Orleans	OAKLAND	3.7	4.4	5.1	5.1	4 1/2	54 1/2
DENVER	San Diego	14.1	13.5	8.9	13.0	7 1/2	48 1/2
PITTSBURGH	Baltimore	1.0	0.8	-1.0	0.5	-3 1/2	41
SAN FRANCISCO	Chicago	1.5	1.0	-1.1	0.5	5	NL

 

 

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 10: November 8-12, 2012

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New York Giants	106.5	106.6	106.7	106.5	1.5
Dallas Cowboys	99.0	98.6	98.5	98.0	3
Philadelphia Eagles	98.6	98.7	98.7	98.5	3.5
Washington Redskins	96.7	96.7	96.7	96.5	2.5
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Chicago Bears	108.9	108.4	107.7	107.5	1.5
Green Bay Packers	107.1	105.8	103.8	104.0	2
Detroit Lions	100.6	101.6	103.7	102.5	2
Minnesota Vikings	95.8	98.6	99.9	101.5	3.5
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Atlanta Falcons	106.2	107.4	106.6	108.5	1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	102.1	101.0	99.2	99.5	2
New Orleans Saints	99.5	100.3	101.2	101.0	2
Carolina Panthers	95.7	95.5	97.5	95.0	2
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
San Francisco 49ers	109.1	107.8	104.8	106.0	1.5
Seattle Seahawks	102.1	102.2	102.2	102.0	4.5
Arizona Cardinals	97.3	96.6	98.6	95.5	3
St. Louis Rams	95.3	96.4	97.0	97.5	4.5
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New England Patriots	109.5	108.2	105.9	106.5	2
Miami Dolphins	101.2	100.8	100.0	100.0	2.5
New York Jets	98.7	97.8	96.8	96.5	2.5
Buffalo Bills	96.2	94.8	96.8	93.0	2.5
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Pittsburgh Steelers	103.5	102.9	100.7	102.0	3.5
Baltimore Ravens	102.3	103.0	103.3	103.5	4
Cincinnati Bengals	97.9	97.6	98.6	97.0	3
Cleveland Browns	93.8	94.0	94.9	94.0	2
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Houston Texans	109.6	109.0	108.7	108.0	2.5
Indianapolis Colts	93.3	96.8	98.5	100.5	4.5
Tennessee Titans	91.9	92.5	92.8	93.0	3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	91.1	91.2	91.2	91.0	0.5
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Denver Broncos	107.4	106.4	104.3	105.0	3.5
San Diego Chargers	99.2	99.0	100.5	98.5	2.5
Oakland Raiders	94.2	94.7	94.9	95.0	3.5
Kansas City Chiefs	89.7	89.5	89.4	89.0	3.5

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vintage	Vegas	Totals
Indianapolis	JACKSONVILLE	1.7	5.1	6.8	9.0	3	42 1/2
NEW ENGLAND	Buffalo	15.3	15.4	11.1	15.5	11	51
N.Y. Giants	CINCINNATI	5.6	6.0	5.1	6.5	4	48 1/2
TAMPA BAY	San Diego	5.9	5.0	1.7	4.0	3	47 1/2
Denver	CAROLINA	9.2	8.4	4.3	7.5	4	47 1/2
MIAMI	Tennessee	11.8	10.8	9.7	9.5	6	44
BALTIMORE	Oakland	13.1	13.3	13.4	13.5	7 1/2	46
Atlanta	NEW ORLEANS	4.7	5.1	3.4	5.5	2 1/2	53 1/2
Detroit	MINNESOTA	1.3	-0.5	0.3	-2.5	2	47
SEATTLE	New York Jets	8.9	9.9	10.9	11.0	6 1/2	38 1/2
PHILADELPHIA	Dallas	3.1	3.6	3.7	4.0	-1	44 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO	St. Louis	15.3	12.9	9.3	10.0	11 1/2	38 1/2
CHICAGO	Houston	0.8	0.9	0.5	1.0	1	41 1/2
PITTSBURGH	Kansas City	17.3	16.9	14.8	16.5	12 1/2	42 1/2

 

The Playoffs As Of Today

AFC

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. New England

4. Denver

5. Indianapolis

6. Pittsburgh

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. San Francisco

4. New York Giants

5. Green Bay

6. Seattle

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh at New England

Indianapolis at Denver

Seattle at San Francisco

Green Bay at New York Giants

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 9: November 1-5, 2012

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New York Giants	107.3	107.5	107.6	108.0	2
Philadelphia Eagles	99.8	99.6	99.5	99.5	2.5
Dallas Cowboys	98.9	98.6	98.5	98.5	2.5
Washington Redskins	97.7	97.8	97.8	98.0	2.5
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Chicago Bears	107.3	106.6	106.2	106.0	1.5
Green Bay Packers	106.9	105.9	104.0	105.0	2
Detroit Lions	99.9	100.8	102.7	102.0	2.5
Minnesota Vikings	95.8	98.8	100.3	102.5	3.5
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Atlanta Falcons	106.3	107.7	106.8	109.5	1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	101.4	100.9	99.3	100.5	1.5
New Orleans Saints	98.3	99.2	100.3	100.5	1.5
Carolina Panthers	94.7	93.1	94.7	91.5	2.5
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
San Francisco 49ers	109.1	108.0	105.2	107.0	1.5
Seattle Seahawks	102.1	102.2	102.2	102.5	4.5
Arizona Cardinals	97.5	96.9	99.0	96.5	2.5
St. Louis Rams	95.3	95.1	95.0	95.0	4.5
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New England Patriots	109.5	107.8	105.4	106.0	2
Miami Dolphins	101.9	102.6	102.2	103.5	2
New York Jets	98.7	97.1	95.8	95.5	2.5
Buffalo Bills	96.1	94.6	96.5	93.0	2.5
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Pittsburgh Steelers	102.7	102.5	100.7	102.5	4
Baltimore Ravens	102.0	102.4	102.6	103.0	4.5
Cincinnati Bengals	98.1	98.0	98.8	98.0	3
Cleveland Browns	94.1	93.7	94.3	93.5	2
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Houston Texans	109.7	109.1	108.7	108.5	3
Tennessee Titans	93.5	93.6	93.7	94.0	3.5
Indianapolis Colts	92.6	96.7	98.6	101.5	4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	91.8	91.1	90.8	90.5	0.5
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Denver Broncos	107.2	106.1	103.9	105.0	3.5
San Diego Chargers	98.8	99.3	101.2	100.0	2.5
Oakland Raiders	94.9	97.2	98.3	100.0	3.5
Kansas City Chiefs	90.1	89.7	89.5	89.5	3

PiRate Rating Spreads

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vintage	Vegas	Totals
SAN DIEGO	Kansas City	11.2	12.1	14.2	13.0	9	42 1/2
Denver	CINCINNATI	6.1	5.1	2.1	4.0	3 1/2	47 1/2
GREEN BAY	Arizona	11.4	11.0	7.0	10.5	11	43 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	Miami	-4.8	-1.4	0.9	2.5	-1 1/2	43
Baltimore	CLEVELAND	5.9	6.7	6.3	7.5	3 1/2	42 1/2
HOUSTON	Buffalo	16.6	17.5	15.2	18.5	10 1/2	47
WASHINGTON	Carolina	5.5	7.2	5.6	9.0	3 1/2	47
Detroit	JACKSONVILLE	7.6	9.2	11.4	11.0	3 1/2	44
Chicago	TENNESSEE	10.3	9.5	9.0	8.5	3 1/2	43 1/2
SEATTLE	Minnesota	10.8	7.9	6.4	4.5	5	38
Tampa Bay	OAKLAND	3.0	0.2	-2.5	-3.0	-1	46
N Y GIANTS	Pittsburgh	6.6	7.0	8.9	7.5	3	47 1/2
ATLANTA	Dallas	8.9	10.6	9.8	12.5	4	47 1/2
NEW ORLEANS	Philadelphia	0.0	1.1	2.3	2.5	3	52 1/2

If The Playoffs Started Today

AFC

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. New England

4. Denver

5. Miami

6. Indianapolis

 

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. New York Giants

4. San Francisco

5. Green Bay

6. Minnesota

 

­Wildcard Round

Indianapolis at New England

Miami at Denver

Minnesota at New York Giants

Green Bay at San Francisco

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 8: October 25-29, 2012

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New York Giants	107.2	107.5	107.6	108.0	1
Philadelphia Eagles	101.5	102.3	102.7	103.5	3.5
Dallas Cowboys	99.0	100.3	100.9	102.0	1.5
Washington Redskins	98.4	99.8	100.4	101.5	2
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Chicago Bears	108.4	107.2	106.4	106.0	2.5
Green Bay Packers	107.6	106.1	103.7	104.5	2
Detroit Lions	99.6	99.5	101.2	99.5	1.5
Minnesota Vikings	98.0	100.2	101.3	103.0	4
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Atlanta Falcons	104.6	106.3	106.1	108.5	1.5
New Orleans Saints	99.1	99.7	99.9	100.5	1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	98.9	96.3	94.0	93.5	3
Carolina Panthers	93.6	91.8	93.2	90.0	3.5
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
San Francisco 49ers	108.1	106.8	104.2	105.5	2
Seattle Seahawks	102.4	102.8	103.0	103.5	4
Arizona Cardinals	98.5	98.4	100.3	98.5	2.5
St. Louis Rams	98.0	99.5	100.3	101.5	4
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New England Patriots	107.1	104.9	102.3	102.5	1.5
New York Jets	101.0	100.4	99.2	100.0	2.5
Miami Dolphins	99.9	100.1	100.4	100.5	2.5
Buffalo Bills	96.1	96.4	98.8	97.0	2.5
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Baltimore Ravens	102.0	102.8	103.2	104.0	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	102.0	101.4	99.5	101.0	3
Cincinnati Bengals	98.1	98.4	99.4	99.0	3
Cleveland Browns	93.6	93.2	93.9	93.0	2.5
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Houston Texans	109.7	108.4	107.7	107.0	3
Tennessee Titans	94.3	95.9	96.7	98.0	3.5
Indianapolis Colts	91.8	94.6	96.0	98.0	4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	90.8	90.1	89.8	89.5	0.5
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Denver Broncos	106.4	105.0	102.8	103.5	3.5
San Diego Chargers	99.3	99.5	101.1	100.0	2
Oakland Raiders	93.4	95.0	95.8	97.0	4
Kansas City Chiefs	91.6	89.4	88.3	87.0	3

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vintage	Vegas	Totals
MINNESOTA	Tampa Bay	3.1	7.9	11.3	13.5	6 1/2	42 1/2
New England	St. Louis  (London)	9.1	5.4	2.0	1.0	7	47
TENNESSEE	Indianapolis	6.0	4.8	4.2	3.5	3 1/2	46 1/2
GREEN BAY	Jacksonville	18.8	18.0	15.9	17.0	15 1/2	45 1/2
San Diego	CLEVELAND	3.2	3.8	4.7	4.5	2 1/2	44
Atlanta	PHILADELPHIA	-0.4	0.5	-0.1	1.5	-2 1/2	45 1/2
Seatte	DETROIT	1.3	1.8	0.3	2.5	-2	43 1/2
N Y JETS	Miami	3.6	2.8	1.3	2.0	2 1/2	41
CHICAGO	Carolina	17.3	17.9	15.7	18.5	7 1/2	43
PITTSBURGH	Washington	6.6	4.6	2.1	2.5	4 1/2	47 1/2
KANSAS CITY	Oakland	1.2	-2.6	-4.5	-7.0	1 1/2	41 1/2
N Y Giants	DALLAS	6.7	5.7	5.2	4.5	2	47 1/2
DENVER	New Orleans	10.8	8.8	6.4	6.5	6	55 1/2
San Francisco	ARIZONA	7.1	5.9	1.4	4.5	6 1/2	37 1/2

 

If The Playoffs Started Today

AFC

1. Houston Texans 6-1-0

2. Baltimore Ravens 5-2-0

3. New England Patriots 4-3-0

4. Denver Broncos 3-3-0

5. San Diego Chargers 3-3-0

6. Miami Dolphins 3-3-0

 

Wildcard Round: Miami at New England & San Diego at Denver

 

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons 6-0-0

2. Chicago Bears 5-1-0

3. New York Giants 5-2-0

4. San Francisco 49ers 5-2-0

5. Minnesota Vikings 5-2-0

6. Green Bay Packers 4-3-0

 

Wildcard Round: Green Bay at New York & Minnesota at San Francisco

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 7: October 18-22, 2012

What Happens When Everybody Goes 8-8

Okay, that’s a little bit of an exaggeration, but when was the last time only two teams in a conference had winning records after six weeks of the season?  It has not happened in the 32-team version of the NFL—until this year.  Houston and Baltimore are the only two AFC teams with a winning record this week.  With Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and San Diego losing, almost every AFC team is still in contention for a Wildcard berth.  Even Jacksonville, Oakland, and Kansas City still have legitimate hopes.

 

The AFC East is a four-way logjam at 3-3.  3-3 is good enough to qualify for both wildcard spots at the moment.

 

The NFC is not much different.  The NFC South is the only race that appears to be in hand by one team.  Atlanta is 6-0 and has a 3 ½ -game lead over Tampa Bay.  If the playoffs started today, a 4-2 team would be left out on this side.

 

Parity is at the point where a wise player needs to strongly consider searching for value in the underdogs, especially if those teams lost the previous week.  Just when it appeared that the New York Jets were headed to misery, they pull out a performance that looked more like the 1972 and 1973 Miami Dolphins.  Just when it looked as if San Francisco was head and heels above the rest of the league, the New York Giants embarrass them at home.  One week Phillip Rivers looks like the next Tom Brady, and the next week he looks more like Marcia Brady.

 

What makes this parity more believable is that the offensive and defensive lines in the league do not seem to have enough depth to be consistent.  Just an injury or two along the front walls can make a good team bad in one week.  Numerous little injuries can be worth a couple yards per play, and that is enough to turn a winner to a loser.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New York Giants	107.7	108.0	106.9	106.5	1
Philadelphia Eagles	101.5	101.0	101.6	102.0	4
Dallas Cowboys	98.6	99.3	100.0	101.0	1.5
Washington Redskins	97.8	98.6	100.0	101.5	2
NFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Chicago Bears	108.8	109.1	106.3	105.5	2.5
Green Bay Packers	106.6	106.2	103.3	104.0	2.5
Detroit Lions	99.1	98.4	100.7	99.0	1.5
Minnesota Vikings	97.3	98.8	100.6	102.5	2.5
NFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Atlanta Falcons	104.6	106.2	105.6	107.5	2.5
New Orleans Saints	100.1	98.8	96.2	95.0	2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	97.9	98.7	96.9	97.5	3.5
Carolina Panthers	94.0	94.8	95.5	93.0	3
NFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
San Francisco 49ers	108.3	107.5	104.5	105.5	2.5
Seattle Seahawks	102.2	102.2	103.4	104.5	3.5
Arizona Cardinals	99.2	100.1	101.6	100.0	2.5
St. Louis Rams	98.7	100.8	101.0	102.0	4.5
AFC East	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
New England Patriots	108.3	108.4	103.3	103.0	1.5
Miami Dolphins	99.9	99.6	99.8	100.0	2.5
New York Jets	99.8	99.0	100.4	102.0	3.5
Buffalo Bills	97.4	96.1	100.7	100.0	3.5
AFC North	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Baltimore Ravens	104.5	105.5	105.5	106.0	3
Pittsburgh Steelers	101.3	100.2	98.4	99.5	2.5
Cincinnati Bengals	98.8	98.3	98.9	98.5	2.5
Cleveland Browns	93.9	93.9	94.5	93.5	2.5
AFC South	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Houston Texans	107.4	108.2	106.3	105.5	2.5
Tennessee Titans	93.0	92.1	95.4	97.5	4
Indianapolis Colts	91.5	91.9	94.7	97.0	4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	90.0	89.6	90.4	91.0	0.5
AFC West	PiRate	Mean	Biased	Vintage	HFA
Denver Broncos	106.4	105.6	102.0	102.0	3
San Diego Chargers	99.3	99.6	101.1	100.0	2
Oakland Raiders	94.2	93.0	94.9	96.0	3.5
Kansas City Chiefs	91.6	90.4	89.4	88.5	3

 

This Week’s Games

Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vintage	Vegas	Totals
SAN FRANCISCO	Seattle	8.6	7.8	3.6	3.5	7	38
BUFFALO	Tennessee	7.9	7.5	8.8	6.0	3	46 1/2
MINNESOTA	Arizona	2.1	2.7	3.0	6.5	6	40
INDIANAPOLIS	Cleveland	2.1	2.5	4.7	8.0	2 1/2	45
HOUSTON	Baltimore	5.4	5.2	3.3	2.0	6 1/2	48 1/2
Green Bay	ST. LOUIS	3.4	0.9	-2.2	-2.5	5 1/2	45
Dallas	CAROLINA	1.6	1.5	1.5	5.0	2	45 1/2
N. Y. GIANTS	Washington	10.9	10.4	7.9	6.0	5 1/2	50
TAMPA BAY	New Orleans	1.3	3.4	4.2	6.0	-3	49 1/2
NEW ENGLAND	N. Y. Jets	10.0	10.9	4.4	2.5	10 1/2	47
OAKLAND	Jacksonville	7.7	6.9	8.0	8.5	4	43 1/2
CINCINNATI	Pittsburgh	0.5	1.1	3.5	2.0	-1 1/2	45 1/2
CHICAGO	Detroit	12.2	13.2	8.1	9.0	6	47 1/2