The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 20, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 12: November 22-26, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:18 pm

Interesting Races In Six Divisions

With six games to go for everybody, six of the eight divisions still have interesting races, be it for a divisional championship or wildcard contention.

AFC East

This is one of the two divisions that does not have an interesting race.  New England has a three-game lead over its other three rivals, and even with the loss of Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots will coast to an easy division title.

Buffalo is the only team of the back three that we see has a chance to get hot and go on a run to finish 9-7-0.  Even at 9-7-0, there is a good chance they would miss out on the playoffs.  This week’s game at Indianapolis may be the most important game left on their schedule.

AFC North

Baltimore now has a two-game lead over Pittsburgh, and it looks like the Ravens will keep that lead.  Pittsburgh needs Ben Roethlisberger to come back sooner rather than later, because Cincinnati could easily finish on a hot streak and nip them for second.  For now, we project Pittsburgh to edge out the Bengals and take one of the two wildcard spots.

AFC South

Houston is cruising to a division title, but the surprising Indianapolis Colts are in the thick of the wildcard race.  If the Colts continue to hold serve at home and pick up one road win from among Detroit, Houston, and Kansas City, they will take the second wildcard berth.  The schedule looks very favorable, because their three remaining home games are very winnable (especially if Houston does not need to win secure home field advantage in week 17.

AFC West

This is the other division with little excitement.  Peyton Manning proved he still has what it takes to win, and the Broncos are running away with the division title.  San Diego is underachieving for more than likely the last year under Norv Turner.

NFC East

The mediocrity division could possibly be won by an 8-8-0 team this year and should be won by a 9-7-0 team.  The New York Giants swooned in the middle of their schedule last year, losing four in a row by an average of 13 points per game.  They recovered to finish 9-7-0 but were outscored for the season before getting hot in the playoffs.

Dallas could easily be tied with the Giants by Sunday night, but don’t count out Washington yet.  If the Redskins win on Thanksgiving Day, and the Giants lose to Green Bay, RGIII and company will be one game out of first, and the Giants still have to visit Fedex Field.

NFC North

The old black and blue division is perhaps the most interesting race in the NFL.  With Jay Cutler sidelined the last six quarters, Chicago has become the Cookie Monsters of the Midway.  One Cutler comes back, the Bears should rebound, but Lovie Smith has to find a better way to provide Cutler protection.

Green Bay is not the power they were the last two seasons, but the Packers have enough horses remaining to get to 11-5 and guarantee themselves a playoff spot.

Minnesota is one of those teams that can be on and look like the Vikings of old or off and look like the Vikings of the last two years.  The Purple and White’s schedule is too difficult to get to 10-6.

NFC South

Atlanta built up too much of a lead to lose it, but New Orleans may be the better team at the present time.  Then, there’s Tampa Bay.  All three teams have enough talent and play well enough together to make a deep playoff run.

We believe the Buccaneers and Saints could finish in a tie for second, but one game shy of making it to the postseason.

NFC West

San Francisco’s situation is somewhat like Minnesota’s.  The 49ers can look like the 1985 Bears one week and the 2009 49er team the next.  However, using interpolation, if they continue this 50-50 trait, they will finish 11-4-1, 10-5-1 at the least.

Seattle is the big intangible in the entire league.  The Seahawks are tough at home and decent on the road.  They could easily go 3-0 at home from here on, and they could win two of their three road games (Miami, Chicago, Buffalo).  We believe Pete Carroll will be back in the playoffs this year.  If the Seahawks can win out and nip San Francisco for the division title, nobody will want to visit Centurylink Field in January.

PiRate Projections

NFC East Projection
New York Giants 9-7-0
Dallas Cowboys 7-9-0
Philadelphia Eagles 5-11-0
Washington Redskins 7-9-0
   
NFC North  
Green Bay Packers 11-5-0
Chicago Bears 11-5-0
Minnesota Vikings 9-7-0
Detroit Lions 7-9-0
   
NFC South  
Atlanta Falcons 13-3-0
New Orleans Saints 9-7-0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7-0
Carolina Panthers 4-12-0
   
NFC West  
San Francisco 49ers 10-5-1
Seattle Seahawks 10-6-0
St. Louis Rams 4-11-1
Arizona Cardinals 4-12-0
   
AFC East  
Buffalo Bills 8-8-0
Miami Dolphins 6-10-0
New England Patriots 12-4-0
New York Jets 7-9-0
   
AFC North  
Baltimore Ravens 13-3-0
Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5-0
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7-0
Cleveland Browns 3-13-0
   
AFC South  
Houston Texans 14-2-0
Indianapolis Colts 10-6-0
Tennessee Titans 6-10-0
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-14-0
   
AFC West  
Denver Broncos 12-4-0
San Diego Chargers 6-10-0
Oakland Raiders 6-10-0
Kansas City Chiefs 1-15-0

 

Projected Playoff Seeds

A F C

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. New England

4. Denver

5. Pittsburgh

6. Indianapolis

 

N F C

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. San Francisco

4. New York Giants

5. Chicago

6. Seattle

 

Wildcard Round

Indianapolis at New England

Pittsburgh at Denver

Seattle at San Francisco

Chicago at New York Giants

 

Division Round

Lower Seeded Winner at Houston

Higher Seeded Winner at Baltimore

Lower Seeded Winner at Atlanta

Higher Seeded Winner at Green Bay

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 104.8 103.9 103.4 103.0 2.5
Dallas Cowboys 99.5 100.1 100.4 101.0 2.5
Washington Redskins 99.3 99.3 99.3 99.5 2.5
Philadelphia Eagles 94.6 92.8 92.0 91.0 2.5
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Green Bay Packers 107.3 106.6 104.7 106.0 2.5
Chicago Bears 106.6 103.9 102.7 101.0 2
Detroit Lions 99.6 99.5 100.8 99.5 2.5
Minnesota Vikings 96.8 99.4 100.6 102.5 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 105.1 106.6 106.8 108.5 2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.4 102.4 100.7 102.5 2.5
New Orleans Saints 102.3 103.5 104.1 105.0 3
Carolina Panthers 94.4 94.6 96.8 95.0 1.5
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 109.9 108.2 105.0 106.5 2.5
Seattle Seahawks 103.5 103.4 103.4 103.5 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 97.6 95.8 97.4 94.0 3
St. Louis Rams 94.4 95.8 96.4 97.5 3.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 110.4 108.3 104.8 106.0 2
New York Jets 99.3 98.1 96.9 97.0 3
Miami Dolphins 98.1 97.7 97.8 97.5 1
Buffalo Bills 96.1 96.9 100.1 98.0 3
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 104.8 105.0 105.2 105.5 4
Pittsburgh Steelers 101.4 101.8 100.7 102.5 3
Cincinnati Bengals 101.4 101.8 102.0 102.5 4
Cleveland Browns 94.6 94.7 96.1 95.0 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 107.9 108.1 108.2 108.5 2.5
Tennessee Titans 94.5 96.3 97.1 98.5 2.5
Indianapolis Colts 93.8 97.1 98.7 101.0 4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 91.5 91.9 92.1 92.5 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 109.0 108.0 105.4 107.0 3
San Diego Chargers 98.7 97.8 99.5 97.0 3
Oakland Raiders 90.9 91.8 92.2 93.0 4
Kansas City Chiefs 89.5 88.9 88.7 88.5 2

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Houston DETROIT 5.8 6.1 4.9 6.5 3    50 1/2
DALLAS Washington 2.7 3.3 3.6 4.0 3    47 1/2
New England N. Y. JETS 8.1 7.2 4.9 6.0 6 1/2 48   
CINCINNATI
Oakland
14.5 14.0 13.8 13.5 8    49   
Pittsburgh CLEVELAND 4.8 5.1 2.6 5.5 Pk NL
INDIANAPOLIS Buffalo 2.2 4.7 3.1 7.5 3    51   
Denver KANSAS CITY 17.5 17.1 14.7 16.5 10 1/2 44   
Tennessee JACKSONVILLE 2.5 3.9 4.5 5.5 3    43 1/2
CHICAGO Minnesota 11.8 6.5 4.1 0.5 Pk NL
Atlanta TAMPA BAY 0.2 1.7 3.6 3.5 1    48 1/2
Seattle MIAMI 4.4 4.7 4.6 5.0 3    37 1/2
Baltimore SAN DIEGO 3.1 4.2 2.7 5.5 Pk 47   
San Francisco
NEW ORLEANS
4.6 1.7 -2.1 -1.5 1 1/2 NL
ARIZONA
St. Louis
6.2 3.0 4.0 -0.5 2 1/2 37 1/2
N. Y. GIANTS Green Bay 0.0 -0.2 1.2 -0.5 2 1/2 49 1/2
PHILADELPHIA Carolina 2.7 0.7 -2.3 -1.5 2 1/2 NL

 

November 14, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 11: November 15-19, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:48 am

The Playoff Race—Is It Already Decided?

If the playoffs ended today, the 12 teams included would be:

AFC

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. Denver

4. New England

5. Pittsburgh

6. Indianapolis

 

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. San Francisco

4. New York Giants

5. Green Bay

6. Seattle

 

According to our ratings, these 12 teams project to remain the dozen that will make the playoffs.  We have very little change in our projections.

 

In the AFC, we believe the four division winners are already locked up.  Additionally, Pittsburgh should hang onto the top wildcard spot, even with the temporary quarterback issues.

 

We project the Colts to go 3-4 the rest of the way, while Cincinnati has an easy finishing schedule.  We see the Bengals closing 5-2.  Indianapolis has a 2 1/2 –game conference lead over Cincinnati, and if the Bengals and Colts finished tied at 9-7-0, Indy would own the tiebreaker in almost every scenario.

 

In the NFC, we are high on Seattle and believe the Seahawks have the most favorable schedule in the league.  It would not surprise us at all if Coach Pete Carroll’s team wins six of its final seven games and overtakes San Francisco by a half game.  We believe the two wildcard teams will have five losses apiece, so in order for a Minnesota at 6-4-0 or Tampa Bay at 5-4-0 to make the playoffs, they would have to lose no more than one more game.

 

Here is how we project the playoffs as of November 14, 2012:

 

A F C

1. Houston 15-1-0

2. Baltimore 13-3-0

3. New England 12-4-0

4. Denver 12-4-0

5. Pittsburgh 12-4-0

6. Indianapolis 9-7-0

 

N F C

1. Atlanta 15-1-0

2. Chicago 12-4-0

3. Seattle 11-5-0

4. New York Giants 9-7-0

5. Green Bay 11-5-0

6. San Francisco 10-5-1

 

Playoff Projections

Wildcard Round

New England over Indianapolis

Denver over Pittsburgh

Seattle over San Francisco

Green Bay over New York Giants

 

Divisional Round

Denver over Houston

Baltimore over New England

Atlanta over Green Bay

Seattle over Chicago

 

Conference Championships

Baltimore over Denver

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

Baltimore over Atlanta

 

Current PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 104.8 103.7 102.9 102.1 2.5
Dallas Cowboys 100.3 99.6 99.1 98.6 2.5
Philadelphia Eagles 97.2 97.3 97.1 97.1 2.5
Washington Redskins 96.7 96.8 96.6 96.6 2
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 108.5 107.5 106.6 106.1 2
Green Bay Packers 107.2 106.4 104.3 105.2 2.5
Detroit Lions 99.7 100.0 101.7 100.1 2.5
Minnesota Vikings 96.8 99.6 100.8 102.6 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 105.4 106.5 106.0 107.6 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.8 102.4 100.2 101.6 2.5
New Orleans Saints 100.7 102.0 102.9 103.2 3
Carolina Panthers 94.0 94.4 96.7 94.6 1.5
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 108.0 106.5 103.5 104.6 2
Seattle Seahawks 103.5 103.4 103.2 103.1 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 97.3 95.7 96.9 93.6 3
St. Louis Rams 96.5 97.8 98.3 99.1 4.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 108.8 106.3 102.8 103.1 1.5
Miami Dolphins 98.7 98.5 98.0 98.1 1
New York Jets 97.2 95.9 94.7 94.1 3
Buffalo Bills 95.5 96.6 99.6 97.6 3
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 104.1 104.9 105.1 105.6 4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 102.1 102.7 101.1 103.1 3
Cincinnati Bengals 99.7 100.5 101.2 101.1 4
Cleveland Browns 93.8 94.1 95.2 94.1 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 110.1 109.6 109.1 108.7 3
Indianapolis Colts 95.4 98.6 100.0 102.1 4
Tennessee Titans 94.5 96.5 97.3 98.6 2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 89.3 90.3 90.6 91.1 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 109.4 108.4 105.6 107.1 3
San Diego Chargers 98.3 97.9 99.7 97.1 3
Oakland Raiders 92.5 93.1 93.3 93.6 4.5
Kansas City Chiefs 91.2 90.3 89.7 89.1 2

 

Note: HFA is not merely home field advantage.  It is a combination of home field advantage plus the next opponents’ visiting team disadvantage.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Miami BUFFALO 0.2 -1.1 -4.6 -2.5 -1 1/2 45 1/2
WASHINGTON Philadelphia 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 3 1/2 43 1/2
Green Bay DETROIT 5.0 3.9 0.1 2.6 3 1/2 51 1/2
ATLANTA Arizona 11.1 13.8 12.1 17.0 10    44   
Tampa Bay CAROLINA 7.3 6.5 2.0 5.5 1 1/2 48 1/2
DALLAS Cleveland 9.0 8.0 6.4 7.0 7 1/2 43 1/2
ST. LOUIS New York Jets 3.8 6.4 8.1 9.5 3    38 1/2
NEW ENGLAND Indianapolis 14.9 9.7 4.3 2.5 9    53 1/2
HOUSTON Jacksonville 23.8 22.3 21.5 20.6 15 1/2 40 1/2
Cincinnati KANSAS CITY 6.5 8.2 9.5 10.0 3 1/2 43 1/2
New Orleans OAKLAND 3.7 4.4 5.1 5.1 4 1/2 54 1/2
DENVER San Diego 14.1 13.5 8.9 13.0 7 1/2 48 1/2
PITTSBURGH
Baltimore
1.0 0.8 -1.0 0.5 -3 1/2 41   
SAN FRANCISCO
Chicago
1.5 1.0 -1.1 0.5 5    NL

 

 

November 7, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 10: November 8-12, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 2:25 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 106.5 106.6 106.7 106.5 1.5
Dallas Cowboys 99.0 98.6 98.5 98.0 3
Philadelphia Eagles 98.6 98.7 98.7 98.5 3.5
Washington Redskins 96.7 96.7 96.7 96.5 2.5
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 108.9 108.4 107.7 107.5 1.5
Green Bay Packers 107.1 105.8 103.8 104.0 2
Detroit Lions 100.6 101.6 103.7 102.5 2
Minnesota Vikings 95.8 98.6 99.9 101.5 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 106.2 107.4 106.6 108.5 1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 102.1 101.0 99.2 99.5 2
New Orleans Saints 99.5 100.3 101.2 101.0 2
Carolina Panthers 95.7 95.5 97.5 95.0 2
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 109.1 107.8 104.8 106.0 1.5
Seattle Seahawks 102.1 102.2 102.2 102.0 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 97.3 96.6 98.6 95.5 3
St. Louis Rams 95.3 96.4 97.0 97.5 4.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 109.5 108.2 105.9 106.5 2
Miami Dolphins 101.2 100.8 100.0 100.0 2.5
New York Jets 98.7 97.8 96.8 96.5 2.5
Buffalo Bills 96.2 94.8 96.8 93.0 2.5
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Pittsburgh Steelers 103.5 102.9 100.7 102.0 3.5
Baltimore Ravens 102.3 103.0 103.3 103.5 4
Cincinnati Bengals 97.9 97.6 98.6 97.0 3
Cleveland Browns 93.8 94.0 94.9 94.0 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 109.6 109.0 108.7 108.0 2.5
Indianapolis Colts 93.3 96.8 98.5 100.5 4.5
Tennessee Titans 91.9 92.5 92.8 93.0 3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 91.1 91.2 91.2 91.0 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 107.4 106.4 104.3 105.0 3.5
San Diego Chargers 99.2 99.0 100.5 98.5 2.5
Oakland Raiders 94.2 94.7 94.9 95.0 3.5
Kansas City Chiefs 89.7 89.5 89.4 89.0 3.5

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Indianapolis JACKSONVILLE 1.7 5.1 6.8 9.0 3    42 1/2
NEW ENGLAND Buffalo 15.3 15.4 11.1 15.5 11    51   
N.Y. Giants CINCINNATI 5.6 6.0 5.1 6.5 4    48 1/2
TAMPA BAY
San Diego
5.9 5.0 1.7 4.0 3    47 1/2
Denver CAROLINA 9.2 8.4 4.3 7.5 4    47 1/2
MIAMI Tennessee 11.8 10.8 9.7 9.5 6    44   
BALTIMORE Oakland 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.5 7 1/2 46   
Atlanta NEW ORLEANS 4.7 5.1 3.4 5.5 2 1/2 53 1/2
Detroit MINNESOTA 1.3 -0.5 0.3 -2.5 2    47   
SEATTLE New York Jets 8.9 9.9 10.9 11.0 6 1/2 38 1/2
PHILADELPHIA Dallas 3.1 3.6 3.7 4.0 -1    44 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO St. Louis 15.3 12.9 9.3 10.0 11 1/2 38 1/2
CHICAGO
Houston
0.8 0.9 0.5 1.0 1    41 1/2
PITTSBURGH
Kansas City
17.3 16.9 14.8 16.5 12 1/2 42 1/2

 

The Playoffs As Of Today

AFC

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. New England

4. Denver

5. Indianapolis

6. Pittsburgh

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. San Francisco

4. New York Giants

5. Green Bay

6. Seattle

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh at New England

Indianapolis at Denver

Seattle at San Francisco

Green Bay at New York Giants

October 31, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 9: November 1-5, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:11 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 107.3 107.5 107.6 108.0 2
Philadelphia Eagles 99.8 99.6 99.5 99.5 2.5
Dallas Cowboys 98.9 98.6 98.5 98.5 2.5
Washington Redskins 97.7 97.8 97.8 98.0 2.5
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 107.3 106.6 106.2 106.0 1.5
Green Bay Packers 106.9 105.9 104.0 105.0 2
Detroit Lions 99.9 100.8 102.7 102.0 2.5
Minnesota Vikings 95.8 98.8 100.3 102.5 3.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 106.3 107.7 106.8 109.5 1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 101.4 100.9 99.3 100.5 1.5
New Orleans Saints 98.3 99.2 100.3 100.5 1.5
Carolina Panthers 94.7 93.1 94.7 91.5 2.5
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 109.1 108.0 105.2 107.0 1.5
Seattle Seahawks 102.1 102.2 102.2 102.5 4.5
Arizona Cardinals 97.5 96.9 99.0 96.5 2.5
St. Louis Rams 95.3 95.1 95.0 95.0 4.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 109.5 107.8 105.4 106.0 2
Miami Dolphins 101.9 102.6 102.2 103.5 2
New York Jets 98.7 97.1 95.8 95.5 2.5
Buffalo Bills 96.1 94.6 96.5 93.0 2.5
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Pittsburgh Steelers 102.7 102.5 100.7 102.5 4
Baltimore Ravens 102.0 102.4 102.6 103.0 4.5
Cincinnati Bengals 98.1 98.0 98.8 98.0 3
Cleveland Browns 94.1 93.7 94.3 93.5 2
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 109.7 109.1 108.7 108.5 3
Tennessee Titans 93.5 93.6 93.7 94.0 3.5
Indianapolis Colts 92.6 96.7 98.6 101.5 4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 91.8 91.1 90.8 90.5 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 107.2 106.1 103.9 105.0 3.5
San Diego Chargers 98.8 99.3 101.2 100.0 2.5
Oakland Raiders 94.9 97.2 98.3 100.0 3.5
Kansas City Chiefs 90.1 89.7 89.5 89.5 3

PiRate Rating Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
SAN DIEGO Kansas City 11.2 12.1 14.2 13.0 9    42 1/2
Denver CINCINNATI 6.1 5.1 2.1 4.0 3 1/2 47 1/2
GREEN BAY Arizona 11.4 11.0 7.0 10.5 11    43 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS Miami -4.8 -1.4 0.9 2.5 -1 1/2 43   
Baltimore CLEVELAND 5.9 6.7 6.3 7.5 3 1/2 42 1/2
HOUSTON Buffalo 16.6 17.5 15.2 18.5 10 1/2 47   
WASHINGTON Carolina 5.5 7.2 5.6 9.0 3 1/2 47   
Detroit JACKSONVILLE 7.6 9.2 11.4 11.0 3 1/2 44   
Chicago TENNESSEE 10.3 9.5 9.0 8.5 3 1/2 43 1/2
SEATTLE Minnesota 10.8 7.9 6.4 4.5 5    38   
Tampa Bay OAKLAND 3.0 0.2 -2.5 -3.0 -1    46   
N Y GIANTS Pittsburgh 6.6 7.0 8.9 7.5 3    47 1/2
ATLANTA Dallas 8.9 10.6 9.8 12.5 4    47 1/2
NEW ORLEANS Philadelphia 0.0 1.1 2.3 2.5 3    52 1/2

If The Playoffs Started Today

AFC

1. Houston

2. Baltimore

3. New England

4. Denver

5. Miami

6. Indianapolis

 

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. New York Giants

4. San Francisco

5. Green Bay

6. Minnesota

 

­Wildcard Round

Indianapolis at New England

Miami at Denver

Minnesota at New York Giants

Green Bay at San Francisco

October 24, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 8: October 25-29, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:27 pm

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 107.2 107.5 107.6 108.0 1
Philadelphia Eagles 101.5 102.3 102.7 103.5 3.5
Dallas Cowboys 99.0 100.3 100.9 102.0 1.5
Washington Redskins 98.4 99.8 100.4 101.5 2
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 108.4 107.2 106.4 106.0 2.5
Green Bay Packers 107.6 106.1 103.7 104.5 2
Detroit Lions 99.6 99.5 101.2 99.5 1.5
Minnesota Vikings 98.0 100.2 101.3 103.0 4
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 104.6 106.3 106.1 108.5 1.5
New Orleans Saints 99.1 99.7 99.9 100.5 1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 98.9 96.3 94.0 93.5 3
Carolina Panthers 93.6 91.8 93.2 90.0 3.5
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 108.1 106.8 104.2 105.5 2
Seattle Seahawks 102.4 102.8 103.0 103.5 4
Arizona Cardinals 98.5 98.4 100.3 98.5 2.5
St. Louis Rams 98.0 99.5 100.3 101.5 4
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 107.1 104.9 102.3 102.5 1.5
New York Jets 101.0 100.4 99.2 100.0 2.5
Miami Dolphins 99.9 100.1 100.4 100.5 2.5
Buffalo Bills 96.1 96.4 98.8 97.0 2.5
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 102.0 102.8 103.2 104.0 4
Pittsburgh Steelers 102.0 101.4 99.5 101.0 3
Cincinnati Bengals 98.1 98.4 99.4 99.0 3
Cleveland Browns 93.6 93.2 93.9 93.0 2.5
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 109.7 108.4 107.7 107.0 3
Tennessee Titans 94.3 95.9 96.7 98.0 3.5
Indianapolis Colts 91.8 94.6 96.0 98.0 4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 90.8 90.1 89.8 89.5 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 106.4 105.0 102.8 103.5 3.5
San Diego Chargers 99.3 99.5 101.1 100.0 2
Oakland Raiders 93.4 95.0 95.8 97.0 4
Kansas City Chiefs 91.6 89.4 88.3 87.0 3

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
MINNESOTA Tampa Bay 3.1 7.9 11.3 13.5 6 1/2 42 1/2
New England St. Louis  (London) 9.1 5.4 2.0 1.0 7    47
TENNESSEE Indianapolis 6.0 4.8 4.2 3.5 3 1/2 46 1/2
GREEN BAY Jacksonville 18.8 18.0 15.9 17.0 15 1/2 45 1/2
San Diego CLEVELAND 3.2 3.8 4.7 4.5 2 1/2 44
Atlanta PHILADELPHIA -0.4 0.5 -0.1 1.5 -2 1/2 45 1/2
Seatte DETROIT 1.3 1.8 0.3 2.5 -2    43 1/2
N Y JETS Miami 3.6 2.8 1.3 2.0 2 1/2 41
CHICAGO Carolina 17.3 17.9 15.7 18.5 7 1/2 43
PITTSBURGH Washington 6.6 4.6 2.1 2.5 4 1/2 47 1/2
KANSAS CITY Oakland 1.2 -2.6 -4.5 -7.0 1 1/2 41 1/2
N Y Giants DALLAS 6.7 5.7 5.2 4.5 2    47 1/2
DENVER New Orleans 10.8 8.8 6.4 6.5 6    55 1/2
San Francisco ARIZONA 7.1 5.9 1.4 4.5 6 1/2 37 1/2

 

If The Playoffs Started Today

AFC

1. Houston Texans 6-1-0

2. Baltimore Ravens 5-2-0

3. New England Patriots 4-3-0

4. Denver Broncos 3-3-0

5. San Diego Chargers 3-3-0

6. Miami Dolphins 3-3-0

 

Wildcard Round: Miami at New England & San Diego at Denver

 

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons 6-0-0

2. Chicago Bears 5-1-0

3. New York Giants 5-2-0

4. San Francisco 49ers 5-2-0

5. Minnesota Vikings 5-2-0

6. Green Bay Packers 4-3-0

 

Wildcard Round: Green Bay at New York & Minnesota at San Francisco

October 17, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 7: October 18-22, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:30 pm

What Happens When Everybody Goes 8-8

Okay, that’s a little bit of an exaggeration, but when was the last time only two teams in a conference had winning records after six weeks of the season?  It has not happened in the 32-team version of the NFL—until this year.  Houston and Baltimore are the only two AFC teams with a winning record this week.  With Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and San Diego losing, almost every AFC team is still in contention for a Wildcard berth.  Even Jacksonville, Oakland, and Kansas City still have legitimate hopes.

 

The AFC East is a four-way logjam at 3-3.  3-3 is good enough to qualify for both wildcard spots at the moment.

 

The NFC is not much different.  The NFC South is the only race that appears to be in hand by one team.  Atlanta is 6-0 and has a 3 ½ -game lead over Tampa Bay.  If the playoffs started today, a 4-2 team would be left out on this side.

 

Parity is at the point where a wise player needs to strongly consider searching for value in the underdogs, especially if those teams lost the previous week.  Just when it appeared that the New York Jets were headed to misery, they pull out a performance that looked more like the 1972 and 1973 Miami Dolphins.  Just when it looked as if San Francisco was head and heels above the rest of the league, the New York Giants embarrass them at home.  One week Phillip Rivers looks like the next Tom Brady, and the next week he looks more like Marcia Brady.

 

What makes this parity more believable is that the offensive and defensive lines in the league do not seem to have enough depth to be consistent.  Just an injury or two along the front walls can make a good team bad in one week.  Numerous little injuries can be worth a couple yards per play, and that is enough to turn a winner to a loser.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New York Giants 107.7 108.0 106.9 106.5 1
Philadelphia Eagles 101.5 101.0 101.6 102.0 4
Dallas Cowboys 98.6 99.3 100.0 101.0 1.5
Washington Redskins 97.8 98.6 100.0 101.5 2
           
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Chicago Bears 108.8 109.1 106.3 105.5 2.5
Green Bay Packers 106.6 106.2 103.3 104.0 2.5
Detroit Lions 99.1 98.4 100.7 99.0 1.5
Minnesota Vikings 97.3 98.8 100.6 102.5 2.5
           
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Atlanta Falcons 104.6 106.2 105.6 107.5 2.5
New Orleans Saints 100.1 98.8 96.2 95.0 2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 97.9 98.7 96.9 97.5 3.5
Carolina Panthers 94.0 94.8 95.5 93.0 3
           
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
San Francisco 49ers 108.3 107.5 104.5 105.5 2.5
Seattle Seahawks 102.2 102.2 103.4 104.5 3.5
Arizona Cardinals 99.2 100.1 101.6 100.0 2.5
St. Louis Rams 98.7 100.8 101.0 102.0 4.5
           
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
New England Patriots 108.3 108.4 103.3 103.0 1.5
Miami Dolphins 99.9 99.6 99.8 100.0 2.5
New York Jets 99.8 99.0 100.4 102.0 3.5
Buffalo Bills 97.4 96.1 100.7 100.0 3.5
           
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Baltimore Ravens 104.5 105.5 105.5 106.0 3
Pittsburgh Steelers 101.3 100.2 98.4 99.5 2.5
Cincinnati Bengals 98.8 98.3 98.9 98.5 2.5
Cleveland Browns 93.9 93.9 94.5 93.5 2.5
           
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Houston Texans 107.4 108.2 106.3 105.5 2.5
Tennessee Titans 93.0 92.1 95.4 97.5 4
Indianapolis Colts 91.5 91.9 94.7 97.0 4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 90.0 89.6 90.4 91.0 0.5
           
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased Vintage HFA
Denver Broncos 106.4 105.6 102.0 102.0 3
San Diego Chargers 99.3 99.6 101.1 100.0 2
Oakland Raiders 94.2 93.0 94.9 96.0 3.5
Kansas City Chiefs 91.6 90.4 89.4 88.5 3

 

This Week’s Games

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
SAN FRANCISCO Seattle 8.6 7.8 3.6 3.5 7    38   
BUFFALO Tennessee 7.9 7.5 8.8 6.0 3    46 1/2
MINNESOTA Arizona 2.1 2.7 3.0 6.5 6    40   
INDIANAPOLIS Cleveland 2.1 2.5 4.7 8.0 2 1/2 45   
HOUSTON Baltimore 5.4 5.2 3.3 2.0 6 1/2 48 1/2
Green Bay ST. LOUIS 3.4 0.9 -2.2 -2.5 5 1/2 45   
Dallas CAROLINA 1.6 1.5 1.5 5.0 2    45 1/2
N. Y. GIANTS Washington 10.9 10.4 7.9 6.0 5 1/2 50   
TAMPA BAY New Orleans 1.3 3.4 4.2 6.0 -3    49 1/2
NEW ENGLAND N. Y. Jets 10.0 10.9 4.4 2.5 10 1/2 47   
OAKLAND Jacksonville 7.7 6.9 8.0 8.5 4    43 1/2
CINCINNATI Pittsburgh 0.5 1.1 3.5 2.0 -1 1/2 45 1/2
CHICAGO Detroit 12.2 13.2 8.1 9.0 6    47 1/2

October 10, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 6: October 11-15, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 11:23 am

Coming To The First Turn

Now that all 32 teams have played at least one quarter of their scheduled games, it is time to take our first look at the playoff picture.  Oddly, if the season were to end today, the 12 teams that would qualify for the playoffs are the same 12 many project to make the playoffs.  The only differences are which teams will be division champions and which teams will be wildcards.  We here believe there are still a couple of spots to be decided, so here is a look at each division.

 

AFC East

Can New England not win this division?  Maybe if the entire team gets food poisoning three or four times on the eve of games, but even then, the Patriots might win this division at 9-7.

 

The Jets are a team in turmoil, and 7-9 looks like the best this team can do.  Miami and Buffalo are not going to get to 8-8 either, so New England will run away from its three rivals.

 

AFC North

Last year, Baltimore won the division by tiebreaker over Pittsburgh, with the Steelers and Cincinnati both earning wildcard spots.  There very well could be a repeat this year.  Baltimore and Pittsburgh both look like 11-5 teams, while Cincinnati may fight it out with Indianapolis and Denver for the 6th playoff spot, when the three contend for 9-7 records.

 

AFC South

Just like the AFC East, Houston has basically already secured the division title.  With Jacksonville and Tennessee being two of the three weakest teams in the NFL, Indianapolis has a chance to sneak into the wildcard picture playing an easy slate.  The Colts still play the Titans twice, the Jaguars once, and they also face Cleveland, Miami, Buffalo, Detroit, and Kansas City.  That’s eight winnable games left, not including a visit to the Jets this week.  Indy has a chance to take the last playoff spot.

 

AFC West

There is something about San Diego that makes it hard to call them a lock to win this once-again weak division.  The Chargers are too inconsistent to feel like a safe bet to win the West.  The Monday night game with Denver gives SD a chance to open a two-game lead in the race.  That would put them at 4-2 with Cleveland, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay on the schedule before the rematch with Denver.  The Chargers have a brutal stretch just after Thanksgiving with Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh in consecutive weeks.  Should SD lose at Denver on November 18, there is a possible four-game skid on the horizon.

 

Denver has played most of its toughest games already with losses to the two 5-0 teams and at New England.  If they lose Monday night, the Broncos could still make up the two game deficit against San Diego, and if they beat the Chargers, Peyton Manning’s equines would hold the upper hand.

 

Only the most optimistic fans can see paths to 9-7 record for Oakland or Kansas City. 

 

NFC East

This race is still up for grabs, but if Philadelphia can cut down on its stupid mistakes (the type that are easily correctible), the Eagles could pull away in the second half of the season.  We see a 10-6 season in the offing for Andy Reid’s team.

 

The Giants finish the season at home against the Eagles.  They have the talent to stay in contention all year, and if Philly continues to struggle maintaining possession of the ball, the defending Super Bowl champs could finish on top once again.

 

Dallas owns a victory over the Giants and has yet to play the Eagles or Redskins.  Even with all their woes, the Cowboys could recover in time to knock off their division rivals and sneak to the top. 

 

Washington is exciting to watch with RG3, but the best the Redskins can hope for is 8-8. 

 

This is one division where the outcome is far from being decided after five weeks.  Three of the four teams remain in contention.

 

NFC North

This is starting to look like a repeat of 1968 in the old black and blue division.  Green Bay was expected to win the old NFL Central Division with Chicago and Detroit close behind and an improving Minnesota team becoming just strong enough to become a real menace. 

 

That year, Green Bay did everything but win.  Packers’ quarterback Bart Starr led the NFL in passing efficiency with better than a 100 rating.  Green Bay had the best scoring margin in the division, but they lost five games by one to seven points and tied another to finish 6-7-1.

 

Chicago was a team of ups and downs.  They swept Minnesota and looked like the team to beat some weeks, but they failed to show up and got it handed to themselves in other weeks.

 

Detroit never got untracked that year.  The Lions had a great passing game with Bill Munson throwing to Charlie Sanders and Earl McCulloch, but their defense let them down too many times, and their offense really only clicked against the weaker teams.

 

Minnesota snuck through and won their first division title with a team lacking stars.  They did just enough to win a little more than they lost.

 

Look at how things are eerily similar in 2012.  Green Bay is sitting at 2-3 after getting hosed in Seattle and losing a tough game at Indianapolis when the Colts were playing for their ill head coach.  The Packers almost must win this week at 5-0 Houston to stay in the race, and they could easily fall to 2-4 looking at a trip to now tough St. Louis.  Green Bay must still play Arizona, the Giants, and Chicago (at Soldier Field) plus twice against Minnesota.  It doesn’t look hopeful this year for the Packers.

 

Detroit is sinking in the October sunset.  The Lions are 1-3 with a difficult stretch on the schedule—road games against Philadelphia and Chicago.  1-5 is not out of the question, but recovering from 1-5 is.

 

Chicago was embarrassed at Lambeau Field in week two, but the Bears looked almost like the 1985 edition last week against Jacksonville.  Coming out of the bye this week, Chicago hosts Detroit and Carolina and plays at Tennessee, so they could be looking at a 7-1 record at the halfway point.  The second half of the schedule is more difficult, but a 4-4 finish would put the Bears in the playoffs.

 

Minnesota is 4-1 after many prognosticators believed they would contend for the first pick in the 2013 draft.  The Vikings did fatten up on Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Detroit, three teams with a combined 3-11 record, but they also own a win over San Francisco.  The Vikings could be looking at a 10-6 record, and that would get them in as a wildcard team.

 

AFC South

Atlanta is in the same boat with New England and Houston.  The Falcons would have to implode not to win the division.  With a 3 1/2-game lead over Tampa Bay and 4-game lead over Carolina and New Orleans, the dirty birds are playing for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs at this point.  If they can win at Philadelphia, it will give Atlanta a legitimate path to a 16-0 season, but we do not see the Falcons running the table.  Still 14-2 is quite possible.

 

AFC West

My have the frail risen!  What was once the weakest division of all, where a 7-9 team won the division, has now become a division where no team may finish with a losing record.  It has happened six times before.  In 2008, both the NFC East and NFC South produced no teams with losing records.  Washington and New Orleans finished last in their divisions at 8-8.  In 2007, The NFC East did it again with the Redskins finishing fourth at 8-8.  The AFC South did so as well that year with Houston finishing last at 8-8.  In 2002, the AFC East featured the Jets, Dolphins, and Patriots finishing 9-7 with Buffalo at 8-8, and the AFC West pulled the trick with Kansas City and San Diego finishing 8-8 behind Oakland and Denver. 

 

San Francisco should win this race by three or more games, but Arizona, Seattle, and St. Louis could all contend for wildcard bids.  Arizona has a very difficult schedule after this week with seven tough games in their final 10.  The Cardinals could very well come back to the pack.  Seattle has a chance to go 9-7, but we cannot see the Seahawks finishing any higher and no lower than 8-8.  The Rams benefit from playing a last place schedule, and at 3-2, they actually have the best chance of getting to 10-6, especially if they win at Miami this weekend.

 

This Week’s Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New York Giants

104.7

103.4

104.7

105.0

1.5

Philadelphia Eagles

102.2

101.1

101.7

101.5

4

Dallas Cowboys

97.9

98.4

98.8

99.0

2.5

Washington Redskins

95.8

97.1

98.1

99.0

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Chicago Bears

108.8

108.1

106.1

106.0

2.5

Green Bay Packers

103.8

102.3

100.9

101.0

3

Minnesota Vikings

99.3

100.5

102.2

103.5

3.5

Detroit Lions

98.4

98.4

96.4

91.5

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Atlanta Falcons

106.4

108.5

105.7

106.5

2

New Orleans Saints

100.1

100.0

97.2

96.5

3.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

95.9

97.4

96.9

97.5

3.5

Carolina Panthers

94.0

94.8

96.7

94.0

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

San Francisco 49ers

111.0

111.6

107.5

108.0

3

Arizona Cardinals

101.2

102.6

105.2

104.0

3.5

Seattle Seahawks

100.6

101.3

100.8

100.5

4

St. Louis Rams

98.1

98.8

99.8

100.5

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New England Patriots

109.6

107.7

105.6

106.5

1

Miami Dolphins

100.2

99.4

99.7

100.0

1.5

New York Jets

98.5

98.1

97.0

97.0

2

Buffalo Bills

95.4

92.9

97.9

95.5

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Baltimore Ravens

105.5

105.8

105.4

105.0

4.5

Pittsburgh Steelers

103.5

102.9

101.4

103.5

3

Cincinnati Bengals

99.8

99.5

101.6

101.5

2.5

Cleveland Browns

92.9

93.9

93.4

91.0

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Houston Texans

109.7

110.1

108.9

108.0

3

Indianapolis Colts

93.1

94.3

97.6

100.0

3

Tennessee Titans

91.1

92.0

91.6

91.5

3.5

Jacksonville Jaguars

90.0

90.9

91.5

92.0

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Denver Broncos

104.7

102.9

100.7

99.5

3.5

San Diego Chargers

101.3

102.3

102.7

102.0

2.5

Kansas City Chiefs

94.1

92.2

93.8

94.0

3

Oakland Raiders

92.1

90.7

92.8

93.5

4

 

This Week’s Games

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vintage

Vegas

Totals

Pittsburgh TENNESSEE

9.9

8.4

7.3

9.5

5.5

42

Cincinnati CLEVELAND

4.4

3.1

5.7

8

1

44

N Y JETS Indianapolis

8.9

7.3

2.9

0.5

3

42.5

TAMPA BAY Kansas City

5.8

9.2

7.1

7.5

3

40

ATLANTA Oakland

16.8

20.3

15.4

15.5

9.5

48.5

BALTIMORE Dallas

10.6

10.4

9.6

9

3.5

44

PHILADELPHIA Detroit

6.3

5.2

7.8

12.5

4.5

47.5

MIAMI St. Louis

5.1

3.6

2.9

2.5

3

37.5

New England SEATTLE

6

3.4

1.8

3

3.5

45

ARIZONA Buffalo

9.8

13.7

11.3

12.5

4.5

43

Minnesota WASHINGTON

1

0.9

1.6

2

NL

NL

SAN FRANCISCO N Y Giants

8.8

10.7

5.3

10.5

4.5

44.5

HOUSTON Green Bay

7.4

9.3

9.5

8.5

3.5

48

Denver SAN DIEGO

0.9

-1.9

-4.5

-5

-1

49.5

 

October 3, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 5: October 4-8, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 1:22 pm

Information About Our New PiRate Vintage Rating

We introduced, or rather re-introduced the Vintage Rating this year both for the college and NFL ratings.  These two new/old ratings are not the same and use somewhat different statistical information.  The reason for this is that we have access to a lot more beneficial statistical data with the NFL than with college football.

 

Our original rating that our current Vintage Rating was modeled after used simple offensive and defensive statistics with a little splash of special teams stats thrown in.  For 1980, this was a nice way to look at the NFL.  For instance, in 1980, we looked at yards per play on offense and defense and compared it with the league norms.  We then looked at turnovers and strength of schedule and used trial and error to come up with the best statistical fit for all this data.  We actually weighted those stats five different ways and took the average to come up with a rating.

 

In current times, we have access to much better statistical values.  For instance, we now have adjusted yards per pass attempt, which calculates yards per pass attempt, yards lost from sacks, and yards lost from interceptions, which comes to about 45 if you believe the football equivalent of Sabrematricians.

 

We have access to stats that tell us whether a running back that rushes for 50 yards on 15 carries is better or worse than another running back that rushes for 60 yards on 15 carries.  In the past, the back that rushed for 60 was obviously better.  Today, we know that isn’t always the case.  The back that rushes for 50 yards on 15 carries might get the ball on 3rd and one several times per game, where his coach calls for a quick dive play in the A-gap.  What if the 50-yard back got the ball three times at the opponents’ one yard line?  If he scored three touchdowns in those attempts, this counts for a lot more than the one-yard average from those three attempts.

 

Conversely, what if the 60-yard rusher picked up 15 yards on a draw in a 3rd and 25 situation?  What if he picked up another 15 yards on the last play of the first half, when his team was at its own 20, and the defense was in a dime package prevent? 

 

There are stats now that judge whether each team (and each back) achieved success or failed on each running attempt.  There are multiple sites online that show this type of data.  We use a lot of these factors and calculate the strength of the opponent to determine how good each team’s offense, defense, and special teams are.  We then have a root calculation for each statistical figure, and from this, we come up with a raw rating.  A constant is added to turn this raw root into a point spread.  Finally, we take the mean of the 32 ratings and add or subtract to each team’s rating a constant that brings the league average to 100.0.  All of our PiRate Ratings should average 100.0, so when you see one team rated at 104.6, you know they are 4.6 points better than the average team.

 

The Regular PiRate, PiRate Mean, and PiRate Biased Ratings are completely different from the Vintage Ratings.  There is very little correlation between the original three NFL ratings and this new Vintage.  The PiRate, PiRate Mean, and PiRate Bias use identical data; the only difference is how we weight it.  The regular PiRate weights it how we believe is best in the 2010’s.  The Mean weights everything equally; and the Biased weights it the way we weighted it in the 1990’s.  The Biased Rating was our PiRate Rating from 1985 to 2001.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New York Giants

104.0

102.9

102.7

102.0

1

Philadelphia Eagles

102.0

101.5

103.5

104.5

3.5

Dallas Cowboys

97.9

97.0

98.8

99.5

2.5

Washington Redskins

96.0

96.3

97.7

98.5

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Green Bay Packers

106.4

104.1

102.7

103.5

2.5

Chicago Bears

106.3

106.8

103.7

101.5

3

Detroit Lions

98.4

97.2

99.0

97.0

2

Minnesota Vikings

96.9

100.7

100.2

101.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Atlanta Falcons

106.2

107.4

105.7

107.0

2.5

New Orleans Saints

99.3

93.3

95.9

96.5

3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

95.9

95.1

96.3

97.0

3

Carolina Panthers

94.8

93.2

99.1

98.5

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

San Francisco 49ers

108.0

108.4

106.1

106.0

4

Arizona Cardinals

103.5

109.7

107.0

105.5

1

Seattle Seahawks

100.1

102.1

100.3

99.5

2.5

St. Louis Rams

95.8

97.2

98.1

99.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New England Patriots

109.3

111.7

104.7

104.0

3

Miami Dolphins

99.1

100.9

98.5

97.5

3

New York Jets

98.5

96.9

97.9

98.0

2

Buffalo Bills

98.1

95.0

100.7

99.5

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Baltimore Ravens

105.8

108.9

106.4

105.5

3

Pittsburgh Steelers

103.7

101.0

100.0

101.5

2.5

Cincinnati Bengals

100.6

100.3

101.5

101.0

2.5

Cleveland Browns

93.6

94.6

95.0

93.0

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Houston Texans

110.0

113.7

109.1

107.0

1.5

Tennessee Titans

93.8

90.9

92.0

91.5

3

Jacksonville Jaguars

92.5

93.6

93.7

94.0

2

Indianapolis Colts

90.2

92.0

93.6

95.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Denver Broncos

105.0

107.8

102.7

101.0

2.5

San Diego Chargers

102.1

101.1

102.6

102.0

2.5

Kansas City Chiefs

93.8

88.7

93.3

94.5

2

Oakland Raiders

92.1

90.1

91.5

91.5

2.5

 

 

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vintage Vegas Totals
Arizona ST. LOUIS 4.7 9.5 5.9 3.5 1    39 1/2
Atlanta WASHINGTON 7.7 8.6 5.5 6.0 3    50 1/2
PITTSBURGH Philadelphia 4.2 2.0 -1.0 -0.5 3 1/2 43   
Green Bay

 

INDIANAPOLIS 13.7 9.6 6.6 6.0 7    47 1/2
N Y GIANTS Cleveland 11.4 9.3 8.7 10.0 9 1/2 44    
MINNESOTA Tennessee 6.1 12.8 11.2 12.5 5 1/2 44   
CINCINNATI Miami 4.0 1.9 5.5 6.0 3 1/2 45   
Baltimore KANSAS CITY 7.0 18.2 11.1 9.0 6    46 1/2
Seattle CAROLINA 1.3 4.9 -2.8 -3.0 -3    43 1/2
Chicago JACKSONVILLE 11.8 11.2 8.0 5.5 6    40   
NEW ENGLAND Denver 7.3 6.9 5.0 6.0 7    51 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO Buffalo 13.9 17.4 9.4 10.5 10    44 1/2
NEW ORLEANS

 

San Diego 0.2 -4.8 -3.7 -3.5 3 1/2 54   
Houston

 

N Y JETS 9.5 14.8 9.2 7.0 9    41 1/2

 

September 26, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 4: September 27-30, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:41 am

The Lance Easley Saga

We were going to leave this issue alone.  Then, more information emerged that made this commentary mandatory. 

 

Giving a junior college and Division 3 college referee the task of officiating a NFL game, is like giving a Cessna pilot the left seat in a 747.  Putting it on Monday Night Football is like making him the pilot of Air Force One.

 

Tuesday, USA Today reported that infamous Side Judge Lance Easley, the referee who signaled the touchdown call in Monday night’s Packers-Seahawks game, was a high school and junior college official in California.  By all appearances, he is an exemplary member of his community—a respected banker and member of the Fellowship of Christian Athletes.

 

It is not his fault that pro football has suffered its biggest black eye since deciding to play games on November 24, 1963. 

 

The news surface quickly on Tuesday that Easley had attended an officiating academy twice this summer to gain competence and ability to officiate in Division 1 college games.  Division 1 in this case means FCS as well as FBS, so when the instructors deemed he was not ready to officiate at that level, they were in essence stating he was not ready to officiate this week’s Bryant-Wagner game.

 

Also Tuesday, the news emerged that the gimmicky Lingerie Football League had fired referees that are now working NFL games.  This is perhaps the most damning news of all. 

 

The NFL will apparently not back down and continue to try to force the referees back without offering any concessions.  This could lead to something major happening before the end of the season.

 

The players are now getting emotional over this issue.  Some are indicating that the player’s union should sympathize with the officials and call for a player strike.  The NFL cannot handle this; it would cost them much more than settling with the officials.

 

If this seed starts to sprout, look for the officials to begin to want more in their bargaining agreement.

 

All of this could have been avoided if not for the greed of the management.  What the officials want would cost the league about a nickel on every ticket sold.  Ticket prices escalate by a couple dollars every year, and five cents going to the officials is a drop in the bucket.

 

However the owners are greedy folks.  Without naming names, I personally know that one billionaire owner has been known to shut off the air conditioning to his employees’ offices on the weekends to save about $90 a month. 

 

The NFL believes incorrectly that they can continue the current status quo and not lose any support.  They believe their fans are “sheeple” and will continue to watch these games even if half of the calls are made incorrectly.  Major League baseball thought this same thing.  It was a different set of circumstances that led to our national pastime’s demise, but it was the same incorrect paradigm.

 

Baseball really blew it when they started to expand the number of teams and the number of teams in the postseason.  They ruined their exceptional pennant races, where teams had to prove they were the best for six months.  Today, all the talk is about who will win the wildcard spots.  There can be no 1964’s in baseball any more.  You will never again see a repeat of the 1967 American League pennant race.  Look at 2012.  Four of the six divisions have already been decided, and a fifth will only settle which team will win the division and which will be a wildcard.

 

Let’s look at baseball if the current situation was like it was in the days when baseball was as important as the NFL is today.  If there were just two teams advancing to the postseason (The World Series), look at the fabulous pennant races we would have today.  In the American League, Texas would hold a two-game lead over the Yankees, with Baltimore 3 ½ games back and Oakland four games back.  All four teams would still be in the race, an exciting race that would go down to the final games.  We do not need a team that is 10 games over .500 (Detroit/Chisox) to have a chance to play in the World Series.  In the National League, Washington and Cincinnati would be tied with Atlanta still in the race four games back.  Why are the Dodgers and Brewers, both at 79-75, still in the race for a playoff spot?  The sixth month pennant race means very little.  Having no interleague play like it should be would mean that the nation could only speculate about the World Series.  Now, it can be a rematch from the regular season.

 

The NFL is walking down this same incorrect path.  Already, it is a travesty that 9-7 teams can win the Super Bowl, much less make the playoffs.  There should be no more than eight playoff teams, the winners of each division.  We believe there should be four divisions of eight teams with only four playoff teams.

 

Every shot to the bough of the NFL ship brings on a little more water.  A few thousand fans may have been lost this week, but the NFL will not notice it—yet.  This league is just as fallible as Major League baseball.  People looking for entertainment want to see what they perceive is a legitimate performance.  This is not.  People, including this one, will turn away and stop watching the games until NFL officials are officiating.  It is strictly boxscore reading until then.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New York Giants

104.1

103.2

104.8

105.5

0.5

Philadelphia Eagles

101.9

102.5

103.0

103.5

3

Dallas Cowboys

100.4

100.2

101.9

103.0

4

Washington Redskins

95.5

98.3

96.1

95.5

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Green Bay Packers

107.2

102.6

102.1

102.5

3.5

Chicago Bears

104.1

100.6

103.4

103.0

3.5

Detroit Lions

100.4

101.0

100.1

98.5

2.5

Minnesota Vikings

95.4

97.4

99.2

101.0

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Atlanta Falcons

107.5

105.3

104.6

106.5

1.5

New Orleans Saints

98.0

97.9

93.8

91.5

3.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

96.4

96.5

96.5

97.5

2.5

Carolina Panthers

93.5

97.2

96.7

93.0

1.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

San Francisco 49ers

105.6

105.8

105.0

105.0

4

Arizona Cardinals

104.3

101.9

105.1

106.0

3.5

Seattle Seahawks

100.8

102.8

101.6

101.5

2.5

St. Louis Rams

94.8

95.0

95.9

96.5

4

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New England Patriots

107.0

106.4

103.0

103.5

1

New York Jets

101.3

101.3

101.1

101.5

4.5

Buffalo Bills

99.8

98.1

100.7

99.5

4

Miami Dolphins

98.0

98.8

95.8

93.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Baltimore Ravens

107.0

105.5

105.5

105.0

4.5

Pittsburgh Steelers

103.7

102.0

99.2

100.5

4.5

Cincinnati Bengals

99.4

100.1

101.7

101.5

2

Cleveland Browns

92.4

93.8

93.8

92.0

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Houston Texans

109.5

106.9

107.2

106.5

2

Tennessee Titans

94.3

96.0

97.5

99.0

2

Jacksonville Jaguars

93.8

95.5

94.9

95.0

2.5

Indianapolis Colts

90.2

92.7

93.0

94.0

3

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Denver Broncos

102.8

101.0

101.4

101.5

1.5

San Diego Chargers

101.3

101.9

102.1

102.0

3

Kansas City Chiefs

95.0

96.0

96.4

97.0

2

Oakland Raiders

94.3

95.8

97.1

98.5

2

 

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vintage

Vegas

Totals

BALTIMORE Cleveland

19.1

16.2

16.2

17.5

12 1/2

43 1/2

New England BUFFALO

3.2

4.3

-1.7

0.0

4   

52   

DETROIT Minnesota

7.5

6.1

3.4

0.0

4 1/2

NL

ATLANTA Carolina

15.5

9.6

9.4

15.0

7   

48 1/2

N. Y. JETS San Francisco

0.2

0.0

0.6

1.0

-4   

40 1/2

San Diego KANSAS CITY

4.3

3.9

3.7

3.0

-1   

45   

HOUSTON Tennessee

17.2

12.9

11.7

9.5

12   

45   

Seattle ST. LOUIS

2.0

3.8

1.7

1.0

2 1/2

38 1/2

ARIZONA Miami

9.8

6.6

12.8

16.5

6 1/2

39 1/2

DENVER Oakland

10.0

6.7

5.8

4.5

6 1/2

47 1/2

Cincinnati JACKSONVILLE

3.1

2.1

4.3

4.0

2 1/2

42 1/2

GREENBAY New Orleans

12.7

8.2

11.8

14.5

7 1/2

54   

TAMPABAY Washington

3.4

0.7

2.9

4.5

3   

47 1/2

PHILADELPHIA N. Y. Giants

0.8

2.3

1.2

1.0

2   

46 1/2

DALLAS Chicago

0.3

3.6

2.5

4.0

3 1/2

41 1/2

 

September 19, 2012

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 3: September 20-23, 2012

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:11 am

The New Power Division

Just two years ago, the Seattle Seahawks won the NFC West Division with a 7-9-0 record.  In the previous eight seasons, only seven NFC West teams posted winning records, and never once did two teams from that division win nine games in the same season.  You have to go back to 2003 to fins two teams with winning records from this division.

 

After two weeks of the 2012 season, it looks like the NFC West will break that trend.  San Francisco might be the best team in all of football.  The 49ers won easily at Lambeau Field, and they handled Detroit in Candlestick Park Sunday night.  It is more than a small possibility that they could be 13-0 when they visit New Englandin December.

 

Arizona is also 2-0 with a win at New England.  This is without starting quarterback John Skelton.  Seattle lost at Arizona in week one and then demolished Dallas in week two.  Even St. Louis appears to be ready to challenge for a winning record.  Jeff Fisher has the Rams looking like a playoff contender after losing a close game at Detroit and then winning at home against Washington.

 

To The Contrary

The divisions expected to be the best in both conferences are a combined 8-8 so far, with all eight teams sitting at 1-1.  The NFC North has the misfortune of playing the new power division, and both Green Bay and Detroit have felt the wrath of Harbaugh.  Minnesota lost to Andrew Luck and the Colts.  The Bears have not lost out of division yet, but heading into week three, they are in more disarray than any team that is not wearing fleur de leis on their helmets.

 

In the AFC East, the Jets lost big to Pittsburgh and New England was surprised by Arizona.  Buffalo lost big to the Jets, while Miami lost big to Houston.  It is still too early to make a big assumption here, but New England faces a big game this week at Baltimore.  The Pats have not started 1-2 since 2001, but that team rallied to finish 11-5-0 and first in the division.  It was the year Tom Brady replaced Drew Bledsoe at quarterback three games into the season and guided New England to a Super Bowl Championship.

 

Comparing 2012 to 1966

What seems like a move to a predominant passing game in the 21st Century NFL compared to a former running game back in the Vince Lombardi days is mostly utter nonsense.  Let’s look at some statistics from this season compared to 1966, when Lombardi’s Packers won the NFL-AFL Championship Game in what would soon be renamed “The Super Bowl.”

 

In 2012, the average team scores 24.3 points per game.  In 1966, the NFL averaged 21.7 points per game, and the AFL averaged 22.5 points per game.  There’s very little difference there.

 

In 2012, the average team runs the ball 42% of the time and passes 58% of the time.  In 1966, the average NFL team ran the ball 49% of the time and passed 51% of the time.  The average AFL team ran the ball 46% of the time and passed 54% of the time.  In all three instances, these teams consistently averaged 63 scrimmage plays per game.  We are talking basically three more passing attempts per game these days compared to back in the days of Lombardi.  Scattered over the course of a game, the difference is negligible.

 

In 2012, the average team averages 7.0 yards per pass attempt and 11.1 yards per completion.  In 1966, the NFL averaged 6.9 yards per pass attempt and 13.4 yards per completion, while the AFL averaged 6.8 yards per attempt and 14.7 yards per completion.  Basically, today’s trend is to throw shorter passes for a higher completion percentage, while in 1966, teams tended to throw longer passes with lower completion percentages but more yards per completion.  The real difference is that teams tended to throw a couple extra long bombs in those days.  Once again, the differences are negligible, and the overall results are about the same.

 

In 2012, the average team averages 4.1 yards per rushing attempt.  In 1966, the average NFL team averaged 3.9 yards per rushing attempt, and the average AFL team averaged 4.0 yards per rushing attempt.  This miniscule difference can be explained by the simple fact that teams in 1966 always had a fullback that ran the ball.  In 3rd and short or at the goalline, teams would give the ball to their bigger, more powerful back to get two yards and a first down.  Today, teams are more liable to throw a quick pass than use a line plunge or quick trap through the A-gap to get a first down.

 

In essence, the game has changed very little since the days of Lombardi.  The main difference is that teams used two backs and a tight end almost exclusively in 1966, whereas teams almost always use just one back in 2012.  When a team used two backs today, one of those backs is only a blocker.  In 1966, the two backs split the running plays.  Some teams gave the ball more to the fullback, and some gave it more to the halfback.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Philadelphia Eagles

104.6

106.8

106.1

106.5

2

New York Giants

101.6

101.2

101.9

102.5

2

Dallas Cowboys

100.7

101.2

99.7

99.0

3

Washington Redskins

97.5

98.8

96.4

95.5

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Green Bay Packers

107.2

106.7

104.6

105.0

2

Chicago Bears

103.5

102.4

103.0

102.0

2

Detroit Lions

101.7

100.6

101.6

101.5

2

Minnesota Vikings

92.6

94.6

92.2

91.5

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Atlanta Falcons

104.5

104.9

104.9

107.0

3

New Orleans Saints

99.4

99.0

95.0

93.5

2.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

96.1

96.8

98.7

100.5

2.5

Carolina Panthers

96.0

98.8

99.6

98.5

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

San Francisco 49ers

108.4

108.4

106.7

108.0

3

Arizona Cardinals

101.6

100.8

104.1

104.0

3

Seattle Seahawks

100.8

100.6

101.7

102.5

3

St. Louis Rams

95.4

94.3

96.6

98.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

New England Patriots

106.7

106.5

104.6

106.5

2.5

New York Jets

101.6

99.8

100.1

101.0

2.5

Buffalo Bills

98.2

97.1

100.6

100.0

2.5

Miami Dolphins

97.7

97.4

98.8

98.5

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Baltimore Ravens

107.3

106.0

106.7

107.0

3

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.0

102.9

101.7

104.0

2.5

Cincinnati Bengals

97.4

97.8

100.9

100.5

2

Cleveland Browns

94.0

94.3

96.4

97.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

Houston Texans

109.0

107.7

108.0

108.0

2

Jacksonville Jaguars

93.4

93.1

92.1

91.5

2

Tennessee Titans

93.0

94.4

92.6

92.0

2.5

Indianapolis Colts

90.6

93.0

95.4

98.0

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Vintage

HFA

San Diego Chargers

104.3

104.5

103.2

103.0

3.5

Denver Broncos

103.3

102.5

101.8

101.0

3

Kansas City Chiefs

93.6

93.1

91.2

90.0

2

Oakland Raiders

92.0

94.0

92.9

93.0

3

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Team in all CAPS

Vegas Spread as of: Wednesday, September 19 @ 9AM EDT

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vintage

Vegas

Totals

New York Giants CAROLINA

3.1

-0.1

-0.2

1.5

Pk

50 1/2

CHICAGO St. Louis

10.1

10.1

8.4

6

9

44 1/2

DALLAS Tampa Bay

7.6

7.4

4

1.5

8

46 1/2

San Francisco MINNESOTA

13.3

11.3

12

14

8

43

Detroit TENNESSEE

6.2

3.7

6.5

7

3

46 1/2

WASHINGTON Cincinnati

2.6

3.5

-2

-2.5

3 1/2

49

New York Jets MIAMI

1.4

-0.1

1.2

0

2 1/2

40

NEW ORLEANS Kansas City

8.3

8.4

6.3

6

9 1/2

52 1/2

Buffalo CLEVELAND

1.7

0.3

1.7

0.5

2 1/2

43 1/2

Jacksonville INDIANAPOLIS

0.3

-2.4

-5.8

-9

-2 1/2

41 1/2

ARIZONA Philadelphia

0

-3

1

0.5

4

43 1/2

SAN DIEGO Atlanta

3.3

3.1

1.8

-0.5

3

47 1/2

Houston DENVER

2.7

2.2

3.2

4

Pk

46

Pittsburgh OAKLAND

11

5.9

5.8

8

4

44 1/2

BALTIMORE New England

3.6

2.5

5.1

3.5

2 1/2

44 1/2

Green Bay SEATTLE

3.4

3.1

-0.1

-0.5

3

46 1/2

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