PiRate Ratings Super Bowl LVII Spreads

Margins

AFC	NFC	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Kansas City	Philadelphia	2.2	2.2	1.6

Total

AFC	NFC	Total
Kansas City	Philadelphia	53.5

PiRate Ratings–NFL addendum

Because somehow we left off the MNF Game–Sorry Folks!

Somehow, we left the last game of Week 3 on our weekly spreads. Since there’s still more than 48 hours until kickoff, and it’s a big rivalry game with an all of a sudden first place New York Giants team, here are the spreads for that game.

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
N.Y. Giants	Dallas	-8.0	-5.5	-7.0
Home	Visitor	Total
N.Y. Giants	Dallas	42.5

PiRate Ratings For Super Bowl 56

PiRate Ratings Margins

PiRate Rating: Rams by 7.6

Mean Rating: Rams by 7.7

Bias Rating: Rams by 8.0

Total: 51 points

PiRate Ratings Special: Super Bowl Simulated Via PiRate Pro Football Game

PiRate Pro Football is a football game with 26 offensive and 15 defensive plays, the most in any tabletop game on the market. Each team is graded for each play, and we include the most diverse solitaire system for one person to play against a tough solitaire opponent. You can buy the 1960’s-1970’s best of the American Football League and the best of the National Football League team sets at the link below.

Buy PiRate Pro Football Game

We made special team sets for the 2021-22 Rams and Bengals and then played a game using the AI solitaire system for both teams. Here is the result of that game.

Final Score: Rams 27 Bengals 17

Score By Quarters
Team	1	2	3	4	F
Rams	0	10	14	3	27
Bengals	7	7	3	0	17

Box Score

Statistic	Rams	Bengals
Total FD	24	18
FD by Rush	4	4
FD by Pass	18	12
FD by Penalty	2	2
3rd down eff.	9-16	6-17
4th down eff.	0-0	1-2
Total Net Yards	377	298
Off. Plays	67	59
Yards/Play	5.6	5.1
Rushing Yds	71	95
Rushes	23	26
Yds/Rush	3.1	3.7
Passing Yds	306	215
Passes Att	39	36
Passes Comp	24	22
Sacked	0	2
Sack Yds Lost	0	12
Intercepted	0	1
Yds/Pass	7.8	5.9
Punts	3	5
Avg. Punt	43.7	44.6
Punt Returns	0	1
Avg. Punt Ret.	0	12
Intercept. Ret.	1-0	0-0
Fumbles	0-0	1-0
Fum Ret.	0	0
Return Yds.	0	12
Kick Ret.	1-17	2-36
Penalties	5	4
Pen Yds.	40	30
Field Goal Att.	2	1
Field Goal Made	2	1
Time of Poss.	32:45	27:15

Super Bowl Special Parlay

The PiRate Ratings chose not to issue any picks during the college bowl season and playoffs nor with the NFL Playoffs. With just one football game remaining this season, there is but one potential parlay remaining.

Normally, we lay off the Super Bowl entirely. It is like betting the Kentucky Derby; there are much better propositions in horse racing, namely in claiming and allowance races.

The PiRates only issue picks against the spread for fun and entertainment. We never wager any real money on games, and we highly advise you not to ever wager money based on what you read here. A few years ago, we had a professional “sharp” who has turned some mighty steep profits over the years pick games against four other “squares,” including two very wise females. The sharp didn’t win the competition. No, the female flight attendant won with ease. Her method was basically looking online at the public and picking games where the public was heavy on one side of a game. She went the opposite way and won about 60% of the games she wagered.

In all the years we participated in our fun wagers, only twice did we ever finish with a success north of 60%. Buckeye Michelle has retired from wagering on games just for fun, and we don’t have the queen of street smarts helping out these days.

What we have left in the tank this year is one final parlay. We are going with a thought that in recent years, the Super Bowls have been tightly battled with low margins and totals in the average range, not to different from the spread and total line. By playing a 4-team, 13-point teaser at -140 at most books but at -130 if you can find it, you are allowed to move pointspreads and/or totals by 13 points in your favor. In other words if Team A is favored by 9 1/2 points over Team B, a 13-point teaser would allow you to move the line 13 points in either direction. Now, Team A would go from a 9 1/2 point favorite to a 3 1/2 point underdog. Or, Team B would go from a 9 1/2 point underdog to a 22 1/2 point underdog.

There is but one game left, and to play a 13-point teaser, we need four different wagers. By wagering on both sides of the spread and both sides of the total, there are four different wager choices.

As of Saturday night, February 6, the line is Kansas City -3, and the total is 56 points.

Here is the possible 4-game, 13-point teaser.

Kansas City +10

Tampa Bay +16

Over 43

Under 69

Our expectation in this game is that the winner will win by no more than eight points, and the game might be a tad lower scoring than expected, but not lower than 43 points which is a critical total line value. If we had to guess a score in this game it would be 31-27 with a 55% chance that Kansas City will win its second Super Bowl in a row and a 45% chance that Tom Brady will become the Babe Ruth of football.

Enjoy the game. The PiRate Ratings hope you have rent money on Monday, so please don’t wager this game based on what we have published.

PiRate Ratings For Super Bowl 55

February 7, 2021

Margins

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tampa Bay	Kansas City	1.8	1.8	2.0

Total

Home	Visitor	Total
Tampa Bay	Kansas City	58

PiRate Picks for November 12-16, 2020

A Week In The Penthouse Doesn’t Mean To Open The Vault

Last week, when we posted the weekly selections, we hinted that we really liked a lot of picks that seemed to tilt the numbers slightly in our favor, or to be more precise, to overcome the percentage vigorish that the selections had on the other side.

We were correct much more often than incorrect last week, and it resulted in a little fake bonanza in imaginary Vegas Book. We hit on three Money Line Parlays at better than +100 odds, and we hit on three of five 10-point teasers to parlay the selections into a better than 30% profit for the week.

There were other selections that became void after last week’s post was published, as games were called off late due to Covid. Eight games are already off the boards this week as this post publishes, and there is a chance that one or more of this week’s choices will be taken off the board as well. We tried to anticipate which games have the greater chances of being cancelled and left them off this week’s consideration list.

Additionally, we eliminated some teams from consideration due to prior Covid concerns that have left these teams with too many weeks off and too many recovering key players. We only really went with one selection where a college team has played just one game so far–Wisconsin.

Our sentiment is that this week is considerably more difficult to isolate favorable selections. We rely more on the numbers than the actual teams in most of our selections, as Nevada rarely misses on lines this late in the season, even in this dysfunctional 2020 season.

What we have favored this week are the lines that help us move through the highest percentage of key numbers, both in spreads and totals for the teasers. We also used our in-house formula for maximizing money line parlay spreads with our own personal ratings and predicted win percentages.

As usual, please read our disclosure: The PiRates NEVER wager real money on these selections. This is strictly a fun exercise with numbers performed by a bunch of numbers’ nerds that just happened to have all played football, but on the other hand, we have all had concussions from playing football, and sometimes we appear to be a bit punch drunk. So, DON’T blow your Christmas Fund on selections you will see below.

That goes for you, Ms. Buckeye in Florida, who didn’t listen to the warning after reading it a zillion times and went and bet big on the Gators at +150 to beat Georgia outright last week. You won last week, so you are very likely to lose this week if you choose one selection from our list.

Date:	Nov. 12-16
College 10-point Teasers @-110
1. Selection	Opponent	Line
Purdue	Northwestern	+12 1/2
Ole Miss	S. Carolina	-1
Oregon	Wash. St.	Pk
2. Selection (CANCELLED)	Opponent	Line
Coastal Car.	Troy	– 1/2
Fresno St.	Utah St.	Pk
Ga. Southern	Texas St.	Pk
College Money Line Parlays
3. Must Win	Opponent	Odds
Wisconsin	Michigan	+118.99
Rutgers	Illinois
4. Must Win	Opponent	Odds
W. Virginia	TCU
Ga. Southern	Troy	+178.70
Ole Miss	S. Carolina
5. Must Win CANCELLED	Opponent	Odds
Utah	UCLA	+132.03
Indiana	Michigan St.
6. Must Win CANCELLED	Opponent	Odds
Arizona St.	California	+106.90
Oregon	Wash. St.
NFL 10-point Teasers @ -110
7. Team	Team	Total
Tennessee	Indianapolis	O38 1/2
Cleveland	Houston	O39
New Orleans	San Francisco	O39
8. Team	Team	Total
Detroit	Washington	O 36 1/2
N.Y. Giants	Philadelphia	O 34 1/2
Miami	LA Chargers	O 38 1/2
NFL Money Line Parlays
9. Must Win	Opponent	Odds
Tampa Bay	Carolina	+155.57
Miami	LA Chargers
10. Must Win	Opponent	Odds
Philadelphia	N.Y. Giants	+138.24
Las Vegas	Denver
11. Must Win	Opponent	Odds
New Orleans	San Francisco
Baltimore	New England	+162.57
Cleveland	Houston

PiRate Ratings Super Bowl LIII Preview

Super Bowl 53 Preview

NFC Champion: Los Angeles Rams 15-3-0

AFC Champion: New England Patriots 13-5-0

Date: Sunday, February 3, 2019

Kickoff Time: Approximately 6:30 PM Eastern Standard Time

TV: CBS

Online: CBSSports.com

Phone: CBS Sports App

TV Announcing Crew

Jim Nantz–Play-by-play

Tony Romo–Booth Analysis

Sideline Reporter–Tracy Wolfson

Sideline Reporter–Evan Washburn

 

This is the best Super Bowl TV talent in this generation, and the equal of Curt Gowdy, Al DeRogatis, and Kyle Rote in Super Bowl III on NBC in January of 1969 50 years ago.

 

Radio Coverage: Westwood One Radio Sports

Top Radio Market Affiliates

City	Radio #	Radio Station
Atlanta	92.9 FM	WZGC
Austin	104.9 FM	WTXX
Baltimore	105.7 FM	WJZ
Boston	850 AM	WEEI
Charlotte	610 AM	WFNZ
Chicago	670 AM	WSCR
Cincinnati	1360 AM	WSAI
Cleveland	92.3 FM	WKRK
Columbus	1460 AM	WBNS
Dallas	105.3 FM	KRLD
Denver	1600 AM	KEPN
Detroit	1270 AM	WXYT
Houston	610 AM	KILT
Indianapolis	1260 AM	WNDE
Kansas City	810 AM	WHB
Las Vegas	1100 AM	KWWN
Los Angeles	550 AM	KLAC
Miami	790 AM	WAXY
Minneapolis	100.3 FM	KFXN
Nashville	104.5 FM	WGFX
New York	660 AM	WFAN
Orlando	580 AM	WDBO
Philadelphia	1210 AM	WPHT
Phoenix	910 AM	KGME
Pittsburgh	93.7 FM	KDKA
Portland	750 AM	KXTG
Sacramento	1140 AM	KHTK
San Antonio	760 AM	KTKR
San Bernardino	1350 AM	KPWK
San Diego	97.3 FM	KWFN
San Francisco Bay Area	95.7 FM	WGMZ
Seattle	950 AM	KJR
St. Louis	101.1 FM	WXOS
Tampa	820 AM	WWBA
Virginia Beach	94.1 FM	WVSP
Washington, DC	106.7 FM	WJFK

 and Sirius XM Channel 88

Radio Broadcast Talent

Kevin Harlan–Play by Play

Kurt Warner–Booth Analysis

Others–Mike Holmgren, Ed Werder, Tony Boselli, Scott Graham, and Jim Gray

Nevada Lines

Line as of 12 Noon EST Wednesday, January 23

New England by 2 1/2

Total 57 1/2

Money Line

New England -135

Los Angeles +115

 

PiRate Ratings Spreads

Pirate: Los Angeles by 1.4

Mean: Los Angeles by 1.4

Bias: Los Angeles by 1.1

Total: 52

 

Computer Simulations

Data Used: Advanced Metric Statistics for both teams adjusted to strengths of schedules and then using a random number generator of potential outcomes, 100 simulations were run.  We feel that 10,000 simulations artificially lowers the variance, which was already quite low.

100 Sims

Los Angeles Wins: 56

New England Wins: 44

Average Score (Rounded) Los Angeles 30  New England 27

Simulations going over the total: 52

Simulations going under the total: 48

Standard Deviation on the Margin: 3.34

Standard Deviation on the Total: 5.22

Outlier Win for LA: Rams 41  Patriots 24

Outlier Win for NE: Patriots 31  Rams 16

This marks the final football publication for the PiRate Ratings until sometime in the Summer, when we will be in the process of updating the college football ratings for the 2019 season.  Thank You to all that patronize this site.  If you haven’t checked out our other ratings, we cover college basketball with new publications on Monday and Friday until the end of the regular season and then daily through Selection Sunday.  Our annual “Bracketnomics 505” comes out the Monday evening after Selection Sunday, and it has been our most read feature through the years.  We offer all this free to you, because we are a group of math geeks that were once athletes in the dark ages.

Our goal is to supply you with fun information and not to encourage you to wager money using our data for your research.  None of the contributors here at this site ever wager money on our recommendations.  We understand that there are professionals that come to this site, and more than one of you has told us that there is something we put out that does influence how you wager.  We hope for your sake, it doesn’t send you to the Poor House, because  we don’t have any more room here.

 

PiRate Ratings Super Bowl Teaser

We come to the last football picks post of the season.  The PiRates stayed away from the college bowl season and the NFL playoffs to this point, but we are staring at a little deficit for the season.

For three consecutive years, the PiRate Ratings earned a “profit” with our “imaginary” bank roll.  Wagering an equal fake $100 on every selection, we have enjoyed two marvelous seasons and one minor success in the last three years.

The 2017-18 season brought us back down to Earth, but a late surge brought the losses to the point where one final win would give us a winning season even more miraculous than the Jets beating the Colts in SB III.

So, with that in mind, we issue our final selection for the football season.  And, it is not even a money line selection like almost all of our picks.  We go back to a 10-point teaser parlay, something that used to give us some success, but something we got away from when we became rather lucky with money line parlays.

Because our computer ratings and simulations show this game to be as tight as it can be, and the standard deviation of our simulations comes in rather lean, we believe it is possible to make four picks in this game and combine them into a 4-event parlay at +136 odds.  The deficit sits at $-146, so a win would make a 3% loss become a 2% profit for the year.

So, without further adieu, here is our pretend final play of the season.

The wager for this game is doubled to $200.

SUPER BOWL 52 Pick

Super Bowl 52	Sunday, February 4, 2018	6:30 PM EST
10-point teaser	$200 on 4-team parlay @ +136	$200 wins $472
Team 1	Team 2	Number
New England	Philadelphia	+4.5
Philadelphia	New England	+15.5
New England	Philadelphia	Under 57.5
New England	Philadelphia	Over 37.5