The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 1, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 9: November 3-7, 2016

Our First Look At The Playoff Hunt
We like to wait for the first half of the season to come to its end before beginning our playoff projections, as it is virtually useless to start it earlier than the halfway point. With bye weeks, this is sort of the 7 1/2 game point and not the exact midway point, but then next week will be past halfway.

The playoff race is still wide open for most of the teams. In the AFC, Cleveland is the only team with zero chance to make the playoffs. In the NFC, San Francisco is the only team with virtually no chance. That means 30 teams are still alive.
At the other end of the perspective, New England is basically the only team that is close to 100% assured to make the playoffs. This creates a wide open second half race for 11 of the 12 spots among 29 teams.

Let’s start with the old proverbial “If the season ended today” look.

AFC
East: New England #1 Seed
North: Pittsburgh #4 Seed
South: Houston #3 Seed
West: Oakland #2 Seed
Wildcard: Kansas City #5 Seed
Wildcard: Denver #6 Seed

NFC
East: Dallas #1 Seed
North: Minnesota #2 Seed
South: Atlanta #4 Seed
West: Seattle #3 Seed
Wildcard: Green Bay #5 Seed
Wildcard: New York #6 Seed

In the AFC, the wildcard teams have just two losses, and no other competitor is within a game, as the 7th and 8th seeds this week are Tennessee and Buffalo, both at 4-4. The NFC is much closer, as the 4-3 Packers and Giants hold a precarious place on their wildcard spots. There are two other three-loss teams in Philadelphia and Washington, and there are four additional four-loss teams just one game back.

Here is our look at each division at this point in the year.

AFC
East
New England has this division wrapped up even if Tom Brady were to become injured. The Patriots are up three games, and they would have to go 2-6 in the second half to surrender this division to any division rival. Rex Ryan fired his offensive coordinator after a Monday Night game in which the Bills’ defense was embarrassed. The Bills’ defense keeps stubbing its toes week after week, and the offense cannot score enough points to win consistently. This has the look of an 8-8 team that will miss the playoffs. The Dolphins and Jets don’t have the talent to get to 9-7, and it will probably take a 10-6 or better record to become a wildcard this year.

North
Pittsburgh is a very weak 4-3 team with Ben Roethlisberger out. If he miraculously recovers from his knee surgery and plays in the next week or two, his already weak scrambling skills will be that much worse, and the Steelers don’t have an offensive line capable of sustaining the pass rush long enough for Big Ben to survey the field like he tends to do. Thus, we believe that 3-4-1 Cincinnati and 3-4 Baltimore are still very much in this race. This could be the year where it only takes eight wins to earn the division title, whether it be Pittsburgh or Baltimore at 8-8 or Cincinnati at 8-7-1.

South
Can Houston’s defense overcome its inconsistent offense and hang on to the division lead? Tennessee started 1-3 and is now 4-4, but the Titans need another wide receiver to become potent enough to storm past the Texans. Indianapolis and Jacksonville have not shown any tendency to play consecutive games like they deserve to make the playoffs, so for now, we believe Houston will be a weak 9-7 division winner.

West
We cannot find anything to fault the three top teams in this division. Oakland has the easiest schedule of the trio, but they also have the weakest defense of the three. We forecast that Denver will go 12-4, Kansas City will go 11-5, and Oakand will go 10-6, all three making the playoffs.

NFC
East
Dallas has the overall best record in the conference, so could Jason Garrett (Jerry Jones) be foolish enough to bring Tony Romo back to the starting quarterback job when he is healthy enough to play again? Actually, there is precedent, and one quarterback from the past can be used as an example.
Earl Morrall was the backup quarterback for the Baltimore Colts in 1968, when legendary great Johnny Unitas could not get healthy enough to play. Morrall earned the NFL MVP Award and guided the Colts to the NFL’s best record at 13-1 for Coach Don Shula, and then he led the team to back-to-back playoff wins to win the 1968 NFL Championship by beating the Vikings and Browns.
In the Super Bowl, Unitas was healthy enough to play again, but Shula went with the arm that got him there. Morrall performed poorly against the New York Jets’ quick defense, and by the time Shula inserted Unitas into the game, it was too late for Johnny U to bring the Colts back.
Four years later, Shula was the head coach of the Miami Dolphins. His start quarterback Bob Griese went down to injury early in the season and was done until January. Once again, Shula turned to the backup, which just so happened to be Morrall again. Morrall repeated the 1968 performance, winning the league MVP award as he guided Miami to a perfect 14-0 record. By the time the playoffs started, Griese was healthy enough to play again. Using his past experience with the Colts, Shula placed Griese back in the starting slot, and Griese guided the Dolphins to the Super Bowl title.

There is a big difference between that Dolphins’ team and this Dallas team. Miami only needed a signal caller that was competent at carrying out ball fakes while handing the ball to the league’s best fullback in Larry Csonka and one of the top halfbacks in Mercury Morris. Miami won by passing the ball about a dozen times per game, letting its league best defense carry the team. Dallas cannot get to the Super Bowl by riding its defense and handing the ball to Ezekiel Elliott 30 times a game. They need a pass rush, and Elliott needs a QB that is a threat to fake to him and run the ball in the opposite direction, which is not Romo.

The rest of the division can all come back and beat out Dallas if the Cowboys falter in the second half, or if Romo becomes the starter again. All four teams are good enough to win any of the other NFC divisions this year, but they will beat up on each other and be lucky to provide one wildcard member much less two. Washington looks to us to be the best of the other three, but the Redskins have a tough second half schedule. Philadelphia has the rookie quarterback, and the Giants have a defense that hasn’t gelled this year, but their offense can score enough points to get to 10-6 with a little luck.

North
There’s a twin personality in the Twin Cities, as Minnesota has seen the best of times for five weeks and the worst of times during the last two weeks. The Vikings’ offense looks easy to defend without Adrian Peterson, and Sam Bradford has shown he is closer to Marcia Brady than Tom Brady the last two weeks. Even if the Vikings go 9-7, they could still win the division, because Green Bay is uber-wounded, Detroit is mediocre on both sides of the ball, and Chicago is Chicago.

South
This division looked like Atlanta’s in a runaway a couple weeks ago, but the Saints and Panthers may not be dead just yet. With Drew Brees guiding New Orleans to 30 point games, the Saints can recover to a 10-6 record in the second half. Carolina is still a mystery team, but the Panthers looked like the 2015 NFC Champions last week and could easily go on a long winning streak. Tampa Bay is not yet there and needs another year at the minimum.

West
Seattle will win this by default. Arizona might fall to third place in this division, and the Rams match the personality of Mr. 8 and 8, Jeff Fisher. The 49ers could be pressed to win another game this year, as Chip Kelly does not have the pieces in place to run his system. Whereas just a couple players kneel before the game, the entire team finds itself on the ground for the next 60 minutes of action.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 110.7 109.2 111.8 110.6 67 44
Buffalo 103.2 103.4 103.7 103.4 63 40
N. Y. Jets 98.6 97.1 99.3 98.3 58 40
Miami 96.8 97.3 96.7 96.9 59 38
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 103.9 103.4 104.8 104.0 63 41
Cincinnati 102.0 101.7 102.2 102.0 61 41
Baltimore 97.4 99.2 96.8 97.8 61 37
Cleveland 90.3 90.8 90.2 90.4 57 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 98.1 99.0 97.9 98.3 61 37
Indianapolis 96.3 97.8 95.7 96.6 62 35
Tennessee 96.1 97.6 95.7 96.5 58 39
Jacksonville 92.4 94.2 91.5 92.7 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 107.1 105.3 107.0 106.4 63 43
Kansas City 104.4 104.2 105.0 104.5 65 40
San Diego 100.4 101.1 100.3 100.6 65 36
Oakland 98.6 99.4 98.8 98.9 64 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Philadelphia 104.0 102.0 103.7 103.2 63 40
Dallas 101.4 100.8 101.7 101.3 61 40
Washington 100.3 100.1 100.3 100.2 62 38
N.Y. Giants 98.6 98.5 98.6 98.6 62 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Minnesota 103.8 102.8 103.9 103.5 60 44
Green Bay 102.3 101.9 102.2 102.1 63 39
Detroit 98.3 98.2 98.0 98.2 61 37
Chicago 95.4 94.0 95.1 94.9 56 39
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Carolina 103.4 103.1 103.5 103.3 61 42
Atlanta 102.6 104.0 102.9 103.1 68 35
New Orleans 99.0 100.4 98.9 99.4 65 34
Tampa Bay 96.5 96.9 96.1 96.5 60 37
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 106.5 104.0 107.1 105.8 62 44
Arizona 105.1 103.4 105.4 104.6 66 39
Los Angeles 98.5 99.6 98.2 98.8 57 42
San Francisco 90.1 91.3 89.4 90.3 53 37

This Week’s Games

November 3-7, 2016
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Tampa Bay Atlanta -3.6 -4.6 -4.3 55
Baltimore Pittsburgh -4.0 -1.7 -5.5 46
Cleveland Dallas -8.6 -7.5 -9.0 47
Kansas City Jacksonville 15.0 13.0 16.5 49
Miami New York Jets 1.2 2.9 0.4 40
Minnesota Detroit 8.0 7.1 8.4 42
New York Giants Philadelphia -3.4 -1.5 -3.1 50
Los Angeles Carolina -1.4 0.1 -1.8 35
San Francisco New Orleans -5.4 -5.6 -6.0 48
Green Bay Indianapolis 9.0 7.1 9.5 53
San Diego Tennessee 7.3 6.5 7.8 50
Oakland Denver -5.5 -2.9 -5.2 51
Seattle Buffalo 6.8 4.1 6.7 42

 

 

 

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September 5, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 1: September 8-12,2016

The 2016-17 NFL season kicks off with a lot of changes from last year.  Some were expected in advance, while some were not expected until the last fortnight.  Take a look at some of the key changes.

Peyton Manning retired, and Brock Osweiler left Super Bowl Champion Denver.  The Broncos added Mark Sanchez and then released him, leaving Trevor Siemian as the opening night starter. Siemian suffered a torn ACL in 2015.  He comes from the Spread Formation at Northwestern, and he has never taken a snap in a regular season NFL game.  Normally, when a team goes with a raw talent, they have a graybeard in reserve, but the number two man will be rookie Paxton Lynch from the University of Memphis.

Tom Brady will be a spectator for four weeks, leaving the New England Patriots about a touchdown to 10 points weaker for their first four games.  Our ratings reflect this deduction, and in week five, New England’s rating will rise by several points.

Philadelphia begins anew with a new coach in Doug Pederson, and a new quarterback.  Carson Wentz, a rookie from FCS North Dakota State, will eventually become the starter when he is healthy, so for now the Eagles must get by with Chase Daniel.

The Rams have returned to Los Angeles, and until their new palace is constructed, they will be playing once again at the venerable, archaic Los Angeles Coliseum, where they once ruled the West Coast with stars like Roman Gabriel, Dick Bass, Jack Snow, and the renowned Fearsome Foursome defensive line that led the universe in quarterback sacks.  When the Rams last played a real game at the Coliseum, they won the NFC Championship and lost the Super Bowl to Pittsburgh.  That was the 1979 season, 37 years ago.  According to Pro Football Reference, The Rams are 143-77-8 in the old stadium, one of the best home field advantages in NFL history.

There are four new head coaches in the league this year.  Besides the previously mentioned Pederson with Philadelphia, Dirk Koetter takes over at Tampa Bay, Adam Gase assumed command in Miami, and Ben McAdoo inherits the perpetual hot seat with the New York Giants.  Koetter has a nice track record as a college head coach and long time offensive coordinator at both the collegiate and professional levels.  Gase brings the utmost endorsement of Peyton Manning, after his offense led the Broncos to all sorts of records in 2013.  McAdoo is another offensive guru and has the endorsement of Eli Manning.  Pederson also comes from the attack side of the ball, where he was Andy Reid’s offensive coordinator at Kansas City.

Now for the two major late developments.  Injuries to Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota and Tony Romo in Dallas, have led to us adjusting our ratings at the 11th hour.  The Vikings plucked Sam Bradford from Philly, and thus their rating does not suffer much.  However, combining Romo’s injury with numerous other injuries and suspensions, the Cowboys saw their rating drop by almost as many points as the Pats without Brady.  The late signing of Sanchez does not swing the pendulum much, since rookie Dak Prescott will be the starter.

The opening ratings for this season indicate to us that this will be a season with a lot more parity than in recent years.  We could foresee many teams still in the playoff hunt in Mid-December with a lengthy list of playoff possibilities heading into the final week.  In seasons like this, a last place or third place team from the previous year could take advantage of the weak schedule and sneak into the playoffs as a wild card team with an 8-8 or 9-7 record.

The sexy pick this year is Oakland, where the Raiders have a powerful offense and improving defense, but the AFC West is really competitive this year.  Denver’s offense will backslide, and we see a pattern in the defenses led by Wade Phillips, where the teams he has led in the past do not sustain the same defensive strength the year after they dominated.  San Diego is capable of challenging in this division, so all four teams could be in a two or three win window at the end.

The Giants went 6-10 last year, and in a weaker division, it is not impossible for Eli and Company to go 9-7 this year and make the playoffs.  Tampa Bay and New Orleans both have just enough talent to eke out a possible 9-7 season, but Atlanta is also capable of going 10-6 or better and even challenge Carolina for the NFC South.

There are a couple of teams that appear to have all the pieces in place to go far this year.  In the AFC, after Brady’s return, the Patriots could go 10-2 or better and enter the playoffs as the team to beat in the conference.  Cincinnati is looking at a do or die season to make hay.  A team cannot stay consistently good for that many years without a Manning or Brady.  The Bengals were much closer to winning a playoff game last year than they have since they played in the Super Bowl in 1989.  This should be the year where Cinti finally advances to the next round of the playoffs, if the Bengals stay healthy.

The AFC South appears to be the weakest division in the NFL.  Houston will be a bit weaker this year, even if Osweiler puts up good numbers.  The Texans have a lot of issues on the defensive side, especially if J.J. Watt cannot play at full speed.  Indianapolis has a lot of holes, but the Colts have the return of Andrew Luck.  Jacksonville is all enthused over a great draft class and an improved roster, but the Jaguars are still at least a year away.  As for Tennessee, the Titans could possibly be looking at the top pick in the draft for the second year in a row.

The NFC’s stength lies in the West, where Arizona and Seattle both have Super Bowl caliber squads, and Los Angeles has the material to challenge for an 8-8 or 9-7 record.  San Francisco should challenge Tennessee and Cleveland for the worst overall record.

In the North, the Vikings still have a lot of talent, but we doubt Adrian Peterson will have the same or even similar season on the ground as he did last year.  The mobile Bridgewater had to be accounted for as a possible bootleg runner when Peterson was the lone back in the backfield.  Bradford is not a threat to run a counter away from the expected flow.  We expect the Vikings to settle around the .500 mark.  Green Bay should waltz to the division title, but keep an eye on Detroit.  The Lions were 6-2 in the second half of the season after a horrendous 1-7 start, and we believe they are closer to a 10-6 team than a 6-10 team.  As for the Bears, if things don’t go well in September, then the Midway Monsters may be more like mice and fall into the 10-12 loss area, where the next coach will choose a new quarterback.

We will debut our playoff projections in October.  Here are our beginning PiRate Ratings for 2016. Remember, these ratings reflect Brady, Romo, and Bridgewater not playing.  They also reflect Watt playing at about 70% effectiveness, as our ratings have algorithms for starting players not playing or playing at less than full strength.

You will also notice that we have added an offense and defense rating this year, and we will issue both predicted spreads and predicted totals.  And, unlike many other ratings, our home field advantages vary by the game.  Seattle’s advantage can be a couple points different when they host Miami as opposed to San Francisco.  Distance, weather, and playing field play an important part, as well as things like consecutive road games and playing on a Thursday or Saturday as opposed to Sunday or Monday.

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
N. Y. Jets 103.5 101.0 104.7 103.1 61 42
New England 100.5 98.1 100.8 99.8 61 39
Buffalo 99.2 100.1 99.4 99.6 59 41
Miami 94.7 96.3 94.3 95.1 59 36
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Cincinnati 107.5 106.9 108.4 107.6 65 43
Pittsburgh 103.7 103.2 104.8 103.9 64 40
Baltimore 98.6 100.9 98.2 99.2 62 37
Cleveland 91.3 92.9 90.8 91.7 58 34
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Houston 101.0 102.7 101.0 101.6 64 38
Indianapolis 97.5 100.0 96.4 98.0 61 37
Jacksonville 97.2 99.1 96.4 97.6 58 40
Tennessee 92.4 94.9 91.7 93.0 54 39
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Denver 105.8 102.0 105.9 104.5 62 43
Kansas City 102.8 102.1 104.1 103.0 63 40
Oakland 98.6 98.8 98.6 98.7 62 37
San Diego 97.2 98.4 96.7 97.4 62 35
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Washington 100.0 101.0 100.0 100.3 61 39
N.Y. Giants 98.7 97.7 98.4 98.3 62 36
Philadelphia 98.8 95.1 98.0 97.3 60 37
Dallas 93.0 93.4 92.4 92.9 54 39
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Green Bay 104.7 103.8 104.8 104.4 65 39
Minnesota 102.4 101.1 103.0 102.2 60 42
Detroit 100.7 99.9 100.3 100.3 63 37
Chicago 97.1 94.9 96.9 96.3 56 40
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Carolina 109.3 108.2 110.4 109.3 65 44
New Orleans 99.5 102.5 98.9 100.3 63 37
Atlanta 96.7 99.8 96.6 97.7 61 37
Tampa Bay 96.2 97.3 95.1 96.2 59 37
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Arizona 109.9 106.9 111.1 109.3 68 41
Seattle 109.3 105.6 110.6 108.5 66 43
Los Angeles 99.0 100.6 98.9 99.5 59 41
San Francisco 93.3 94.8 92.6 93.6 56 38

Spreads for Week 1

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Score
Denver Carolina -0.1 -2.7 -1.0 20-21
Atlanta Tampa Bay 2.5 4.5 3.5 24-20
Baltimore Buffalo 1.9 3.3 1.3 23-21
Houston Chicago 6.9 10.8 7.1 24-16
Jacksonville Green Bay -4.5 -1.7 -5.4 20-24
Kansas City San Diego 8.6 6.7 10.4 30-21
New Orleans Oakland 3.9 6.7 3.3 28-23
N. Y. Jets Cincinnati -1.0 -2.9 -0.7 19-22
Philadelphia Cleveland 10.5 5.2 10.2 30-21
Tennessee Minnesota -7.5 -3.7 -8.8 14-21
Seattle Miami 18.6 13.3 20.3 31-14
Dallas N. Y. Giants -2.7 -1.3 -3.0 19-21
Indianapolis Detroit -0.7 2.6 -1.4 24-23
Arizona New England 12.4 11.8 13.3 30-17
Washington Pittsburgh -1.2 0.3 -2.3 23-24
San Francisco Los Angeles -2.7 -2.8 -3.3 17-20

 

 

 

 

August 29, 2015

2015 NFC East Preview

2014–Dallas Cowboys

2013–Philadelphia Eagles

2012–Washington Redskins

2011–New York Giants

The NFC East is the only division where all four teams have won a division title in the last four years.  Three of the four have legitimate shots to win it in 2015, not because they are all great.  This division could easily go to a 9-7 team, and it would not surprise us one bit if three teams go 9-7.

Dallas lost in the second round of the playoffs to Green Bay in Lambeau Field at the end of the game last year.  If you are over 55, you can remember when this happened the first go around.  That happened in 1967, and then in 1968, Dallas had what many believe to be their best team ever, but the Cowboys were blown out in the first round of the playoffs to the Browns and did not make it to the Super Bowl for two more years after that.  History could repeat itself this year.  The Cowboys could get back to the playoffs and lose in the first game, because their offense figures to be too one dimensional.  Tony Romo had some pressure taken off having the top runner in the league last year, but now he has an unproven Joseph Randle or an over-the-hill Darren McFadden in the backfield.  The Cowboys’ defense is still top-rate, but we do not expect Dallas to score 467 points again this year.

 

New York Giants coach Tom Coughlin may be at the end of the line.  The Giants went 6-10 last year, and it may take a record reversal to save Coughlin’s job.  Eli Manning to Odell Beckham became a big deal every Sunday in 2014, and with Reuben Randle on the other side, the Giants might move the ball through the air like nobody else in the NFC.  The running game will not shine, but with Rashad Jennings and Andre Jennings returning and adding Shane Vereen to the roster, the Giants will convert short yardage situations into first downs well enough to maintain possession of the ball.  A weak front seven, something Coughlin’s best teams always had, may be the liability that keeps New York from getting back to the top of the division.

 

Philadelphia made a lot of changes in the off-season sending starting quarterback Nick Foles to the Rams for Sam Bradford and then continuing with the acquisition of DeMarco Murray, he of the 1,845 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns for Dallas last year.  But, then the Eagles continued to change personnel like a team bent on starting over from scratch.  Stars Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, and Trent Cole departed.   Nate Allen, Bradley Fisher, Cary Williams, and Casey Matthews joine Cole to create five new starters on defense.  It will be an interesting season in the City of Brotherly Boos, and we think the Eagles will get their share from the hometown fans when they figure to come up short once again.

 

The Jay Gruden era in the nation’s capital may last just two years, or even less if the Washington Redskins don’t improve at the start of the 2015 season.  The schedule actually helps the Redskins this season, as the first seven games prior to their bye week give them chances to win four or five times.  After the bye, wins may be hard to come by.  Robert Griffin III begins the regular season recuperating from a concussion, and Alfred Morris is still around.  The defense figures to be a little better with the addition of Dashon Goldson, but the Redskins figure to be looking up at the other three teams in the division.

 

DALLAS COWBOYS

Cowboys Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Dez Bryant
WR Terrance Williams
WR Cole Beasely
TE Jason Whitten
LT Tyron Smith
LG Ronald Leary
C Travis Frederick
RG Zach Martin
RT Doug Free
QB Tony Romo
HB Joseph Randle
FB Tyler Clutts
   
Defense
DE DeMarcus Lawrence
NT Nick Hayden
DT Tyrone Crawford
DE Jeremy Mincey/Greg Hardy
LB Kyle Wilber
LB Anthony Hitchens
LB Sean Lee
CB Brandon Carr
S J. J. Wilcox
S Barry Church
CB Morris Claiborne
N5 Byron Jones
   
Special
Kicker Dan Bailey
Punter Chris Jones
KR Lance Dunbar
PR Cole Beasely
Dallas Cowboys
Head Coach Jason Garrett
Off. Coordinator Scott Linehan
Def. Coordinator Rod Marinelli
2014 W-L-T 12-4-0
Pts 29.2
Opp 22.0
   
Ratings  
PiRate 106.9
Mean 105.6
Bias 107.6
Average 106.7
   
Grades  
Running C-
Passing A+
Vs. Run C
Vs. Pass C-
Special Teams B
Coaching + Intangibles B
   
Predicted W-L 9-7-0
Division Rank 1
Conference Rank 3
Overall Rank 5
Postseason Yes

 

NEW YORK GIANTS

Giants Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Odell Beckham, Jr.
WR Rueben Randle
WR Victor Cruz
TE Larry Donnell
LT Ereck Flowers
LG Justin Pugh
C Weston Richburg
RG Geoff Schwartz
RT Marshall Newhouse
QB Eli Manning
HB Rashad Jennings
FB Henry Hynoski
New York Giants
Head Coach Tom Coughlin
Off. Coordinator Ben McAdoo
Def. Coordinator Steve Spagnolo
2014 W-L-T 6-10-0
Pts 23.8
Opp 25.0
   
Ratings  
PiRate 99.9
Mean 99.7
Bias 100.4
Average 100.0
   
Grades  
Running C
Passing A-
Vs. Run C-
Vs. Pass C
Special Teams A
Coaching + Intangibles A-
   
Predicted W-L 9-7-0
Division Rank 3
Conference Rank 8
Overall Rank 16
Postseason No

 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Eagles Starting Lineup
Offense
WR Jordan Matthews
WR Nelson Agholor
WR Riley Cooper
TE Zach Ertz
LT Jason Peters
LG Allen Barbre
C Jason Kelce
RG Andrew Gardner
RT Lane Johnson
QB Sam Bradford
HB DeMarco Murray
FB (NONE)
   
Defense
DE Fletcher Cox
DT Bennie Logan
DE Cedric Thornton
LB Connor Barwin
LB Mychal Kendricks
LB Kiko Alonso
LB Brandon Graham
CB Nolan Carroll
S Malcolm Jenkins
S Walter Thurmond
CB Byron Maxwell
N5 Eric Rowe
   
Special
Kicker Cody Parkey
Punter Donnie Jones
KR Josh Huff
PR Darren Sproles
Philadelphia Eagles
Head Coach Chip Kelly
Off. Coordinator Pat Shurmur
Def. Coordinator Bill Davis
2014 W-L-T 10-6-0
Pts 29.7
Opp 25.0
   
Ratings  
PiRate 104.7
Mean 103.9
Bias 105.2
Average 104.6
   
Grades  
Running A
Passing B
Vs. Run A
Vs. Pass C
Special Teams A
Coaching + Intangibles B+
   
Predicted W-L 9-7-0
Division Rank 2
Conference Rank 4
Overall Rank 8
Postseason Yes

 

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Redskins Starting Lineup
Offense
WR DeSean Jackson
WR Pierre Garcon
WR Andre Roberts
TE Jordan Reed
LT Trent Williams
LG Shawn Lauvao
C Kory Lichtensteiger
RG Brandon Scherff
RT Morgan Moses
QB Robert Griffin III
HB Alfred Morris
FB Darrel Young
   
Defense
DE Stephen Paea
NT Terrance Knighton
DE Jason Hatcher
LB Ryan Kerrigan
LB Keenan Robinson
LB Perry Riley
LB Trent Murphy
CB DeAngelo Hall
S Duke Ihenacho
S Dashon Golden
CB Chris Culliver
N5 Bashaud Breeland
   
Special
Kicker Kai Forbath
Punter Tress Way
KR Andre Roberts
PR Andre Roberts
Washington Redskins
Head Coach Jay Gruden
Off. Coordinator Sean McVay
Def. Coordinator Joe Barry
2014 W-L-T 4-12-0
Pts 18.8
Opp 27.4
   
Ratings  
PiRate 93.2
Mean 92.1
Bias 92.5
Average 92.6
   
Grades  
Running C+
Passing C-
Vs. Run C
Vs. Pass C
Special Teams C
Coaching + Intangibles D
   
Predicted W-L 6-10-0
Division Rank 4
Conference Rank 15
Overall Rank 29
Postseason No

 

August 29, 2013

2013 NFC East Preview

2013 N F C East Preview

The NFC East Division promises to be one of the most exciting divisional races this year, as the top team may come back to the pack and the bottom team may be vastly improved.  Due to the handicapped scheduling, Washington must face Atlanta and San Francisco in its extra two games, while Philadelphia gets Tampa Bay and Arizona.

 

We believe this is the last year where the New York Giants have enough talent to challenge for another Super Bowl run.  Eli Manning has enough parts left to guide the Giants back to the top of the division, even if the team is starting to age and lose key parts.  9-7 may be good enough to get into the playoffs in this balanced division, but the Giants schedule includes games against Carolina and Seattle.  They could lose both, but the key is to go 4-2 in divisional play.

 

Dallas and Washington might split 100 games against each other 50 to 50.  These teams have definite assets and liabilities that other teams can exploit or be exploited by.  They look like 8-8 teams to us.  Dallas faces New Orleans and St. Louis, and they could win both, split, or lose both.  If they happen to win both, then Jerryworld could be happy after 17 weeks.

 

Philadelphia is a big wildcard this year.  Can Chip Kelly’s college offense resurrect the Eagles?  As long as Michael Vick stays healthy, this offense will work in the NFL.  However, we don’t believe Vick can start 16 games without getting banged up.  Thus, we expect the Eagles to be better at the start of the season than at the end.  We could see Philly starting 5-5 and being right there in the playoff hunt going into their bye week.  If Vick is still healthy, then the Eagles could still have a chance.  If he is banged up, then the last six games could be ugly.  A 5-5 start could easily become a 1-5 ending for a 6-10 record.

 

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

 

Here are the official colors for the AFC East

East

Color

Red

Green

Blue

Dallas Cowboys

Dark Blue

0

33

71

 

Metallic Silver Blue

130

138

135

 

White

255

255

255

New York Giants

Dark Blue

11

34

101

 

Red

167

25

48

 

White

255

255

255

Philadelphia Eagles

Midnight Green

0

73

83

 

Black

17

28

36

 

Metallic Silver

130

138

135

Washington Redskins

Burgundy

130

36

51

 

Gold

255

182

18

 

White

255

255

255

 

 

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New York Giants

106.6

105.8

105.2

9-7-0

429

344

Washington Redskins

102.7

103.8

104.6

10-6-0

436

388

Dallas Cowboys

99.2

99.3

99.4

8-8-0

376

400

Philadelphia Eagles

91.7

90.8

90.2

4-12-0

280

444

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New York Giants

101.7

102.0

100.8

Dallas Cowboys

100.3

102.1

100.2

Washington Redskins

100.0

99.6

99.3

Philadelphia Eagles

94.4

95.1

94.0

 

PiRate Previews

 

Team

Dallas Cowboys

               
Head Coach

Jason Garrett

O-Coord.

Bill Callahan

D-Coord.

Monte Kiffin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Tony Romo

Running Back

DeMarco Murray

Wide Receiver

Dez Bryant

Wide Receiver

Miles Austin

Wide Receiver

Terrance Williams

Tight End

Jason Witten

Left Tackle

Tyron Smith

Left Guard

Nate Livings

Center

Travis Frederick

Right Guard

Mackenzy Bernadeau

Right Tackle

Doug Free

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Anthony Spencer

Left Tackle

Jason Hatcher

Right Tackle

Sean Lissemore

Right End

DeMarcus Ware

Sam LB

Justin Durant

Mike LB

Sean Lee

Will LB

Bruce Carter

Left CB

Brandon Carr

Right CB

Morris Claiborne

Strong Safety

Barry Church

Free Safety

Will Allen

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Dan Bailey

Punter

Chris Jones

K-Return

Lance Dunbar

P-Return

Dwayne Harris

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

8-8

Division

2nd Tie

 

Team

New York Giants

               
Head Coach

Tom Coughlin

O-Coord.

Kevin Gilbride

D-Coord.

Perry Fewell

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Eli Manning

Running Back

David Wilson

Fullback

Henry Hynoski

Wide Receiver

Hakeem Nicks

Wide Receiver

Victor Cruz

Tight End

Brandon Myers

Left Tackle

Will Beatty

Left Guard

Kevin Boothe

Center

David Baas

Right Guard

Chris Snee

Right Tackle

David Diehl

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Justin Tuck

Left Tackle

Linval Joseph

Right Tackle

Cullen Jenkins

Right End

Jason Pierre-Paul

Sam LB

Keith Rivers

Mike LB

Dan Connor

Will LB

Spencer Paysinger

Left CB

Corey Webster

Right CB

Prince Amukamara

Strong Safety

Antrel Rolle

Free Safety

Ryan Mundy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Josh Brown

Punter

Steve Weatherford

K-Return

David Wilson

P-Return

Rueben Randle

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

9-7

Division

1st

 

Team

Philadelphia Eagles

               
Head Coach

Chip Kelly

O-Coord.

Pat Shurmur

D-Coord.

Billy Davis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Michael Vick

Running Back

LeSean McCoy

Wide Receiver

Riley Cooper

Wide Receiver

DeSean Jackson

Tight End

Brent Celek

TE/H-Back

James Casey

Left Tackle

Jason Peters

Left Guard

Evan Mathis

Center

Jason Kelce

Right Guard

Todd Herremans

Right Tackle

Lane Johnson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Cedric Thornton

Nose Tackle

Isaac Sopoaga

Right End

Fletcher Cox

Left OLB

Connor Barwin

Left ILB

Mychal Kendricks

Right ILB

DeMeco Ryans

Right OLB

Trent Cole

Left CB

Bradley Fletcher

Right CB

Cary Williams

Strong Safety

Nate Allen

Free Safety

Patrick Chung

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Alex Henery

Punter

Donnie Jones

K-Return

Damaris Johnson

P-Return

DeSean Jackson

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

6-10

Division

4th

 

Team

Washington Redskins

               
Head Coach

Mike Shanahan

O-Coord.

Kyle Shanahan

D-Coord.

Jim Haslett

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Robert Griffin, III

Running Back

Alfred Morris

Fullback

Darrel Young

Wide Receiver

Pierre Garcon

Wide Receiver

Josh Morgan

Tight End

Fred Davis

Left Tackle

Trent Williams

Left Guard

Kory Lichtensteiger

Center

Will Montgomery

Right Guard

Chris Chester

Right Tackle

Tyler Polumbus

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Jarvis Jenkins

Nose Tackle

Barry Cofield

Right End

Stephen Bowen

Left OLB

Ryan Kerrigan

Left ILB

London Fletcher

Right ILB

Perry Riley

Right OLB

Brian Orakpo

Left CB

DeAngelo Hall

Right CB

Josh Wilson

Strong Safety

Brandon Meriweather

Free Safety

Bacarri Rambo

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Kai Forbath

Punter

Sav Rocca

K-Return

Niles Paul

P-Return

Santana Moss

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

8-8

Division

2nd Tie

 

September 27, 2011

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 4–October 2-3, 2011

An Interesting Phenomenon

After three games of the 2011 NFL season, in each of the eight divisions, a team that did not make the playoffs last year is either leading or tied for the lead.  In the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills own sole possession of first place.  The Cleveland Browns are in a tie for first in the AFC North.  Tennessee and Houston are tied for the lead in the AFC South, and Oakland and Kansas City are tied for first in the AFC West.

 

In the NFC East, the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys are in a tie for first.  Detroit is tied for first in the NFC North, while Tampa Bay is tied for first in the AFC South.  San Francisco leads the NFC West.

 

The only teams that made the playoffs last year to be tied for the lead in their division are Baltimore, Green Bay, and New Orleans.

 

PiRate QB Passer Formula Returns Next Week

Beginning next week, we will once again carry the PiRate Passer Ratings for the NFL quarterbacks. 

 

The official NFL Passer Rating is out-dated.  There are several different sabermetric methods to judge passer efficiency these days, and most of these new versions put the official version to shame.

 

Here is the official version the NFL uses:

 

I.      (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +

II.     (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +

III.    (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +

IV.    2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)

 

If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375

 

Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating.  For example, let’s look at Aaron Rodgers to date.

 

Here are his stats.

 

Completion Percentage         71.84

Yards Per Attempt               8.9

TDs Per Attempt                  .078

INTs Per Attempt                 .01

 

(71.84-30.0)*.05 = 2.092

(8.9-3.0)*.25 = 1.475

.078*20 = 1.560

(2.375-(25*.01)) = 2.125

 

(2.092+1.475+1.560+2.125)*16.667=120.9

 

Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings.  However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.

 

Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.

 

Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.

 

Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

 

Smith is obviously much better, correct?  No, not correct.  It depends on several other things.  What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them?  What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers?  All these stats show us are just that—their stats.

 

Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains.  Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.

 

In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt.  Let’s look at two separate plays.  Passer A completes a 13-yard pass for a touchdown.  It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone.  This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.

 

Now, let’s look at Passer B.  His team is backed up at their own 1 inch line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker.  The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one inch away from scoring.  This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8, which is 2.1 points less than Aaron Rodgers’ current rating!  Rodgers is not worth more than a 98-yard completion every time he throws a pass.

 

Can this be?  You betcha!  The rating is flawed.  Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds of protection.

 

Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.

 

Our formula looks at just two statistics.  The first is interception percentage.  An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average.  We realize that all interceptions are not the same.  A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense. 

 

The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA.  It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch.  If Passer A completes a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consists of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with that back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).

 

Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:

[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8

 

Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100

 

Anything over 100 is an excellent rating.  Over 90 means the QB is above average.  80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.

 

In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes.  Yards gained are what matters.  Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4th & 1.  Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1st & 10.  Which outcome is better?

 

Touchdowns skew the ratings.  If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other. 

 

Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action.  First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA?  There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB.  Go to: www.advancednflstats.com

 

For this example, we will compare two quarterbacks, Eli Manning and Tony Romo.  Manning has the better official NFL passer rating, leading Romo 104.3 to 95.8.

 

Here are the components for the PiRate Passer Ratings.

 

Manning: AYPA = 6.0  Int% = 2.35

Romo: AYPA = 7.4  Int% = 1.90

 

Manning = [6.0 * 7 – (11 * 2.35) + 105] * .8 =96.9

Romo = [7.4 * 7 – (11*1.90) + 105] * .8 = 108.7

 

According to our formula, Romo has been the better passer after three weeks of the 2011 season. 

 

This Week’s NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings

 

NFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

New York Giants

105.6

102.3

103.2

3

Philadelphia Eagles

104.0

101.0

101.4

2

Dallas Cowboys

101.7

102.1

102.4

3

Washington Redskins

96.7

99.5

100.9

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Green Bay Packers

107.9

108.2

109.0

3

Detroit Lions

104.4

103.6

103.8

4

Chicago Bears

101.3

101.0

102.2

2.5

Minnesota Vikings

98.0

98.5

96.2

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

New Orleans Saints

108.9

105.6

105.5

3

Atlanta Falcons

103.6

100.7

102.4

2

Tampa Bay Bucaneers

98.9

100.3

99.7

2.5

Carolina Panthers

92.9

95.3

97.2

2

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

San Francisco 49ers

96.5

100.1

100.0

3.5

Arizona Cardinals

94.6

95.6

95.3

3.5

St. Louis Rams

92.0

90.9

89.2

1.5

Seattle Seahawks

91.0

92.7

91.8

3.5

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

New England Patriots

107.7

108.1

106.4

4

New York Jets

104.6

105.0

103.9

3.5

Buffalo Bills

100.0

101.9

105.4

3.5

Miami Dolphins

97.8

97.1

97.2

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Baltimore Ravens

107.0

107.3

105.7

4

Pittsburgh Steelers

106.9

103.8

102.3

4

Cleveland Browns

96.3

96.3

97.5

2.5

Cincinnati Bengals

94.8

97.1

99.4

2

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

Houston Texans

105.7

104.1

104.2

3

Tennessee Titans

99.1

100.6

100.4

3.5

Indianapolis Colts

97.0

95.4

92.9

2

Jacksonville Jaguars

93.9

94.6

93.4

2.5

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

HFA

San Diego Chargers

103.5

100.3

99.9

3.5

Oakland Raiders

99.4

101.6

102.5

3

Kansas City Chiefs

94.8

92.7

92.0

1.5

Denver Broncos

94.1

96.3

96.8

1.5

Here are this week’s PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads.

This Week’s Games

Home Team in CAPS

(n) Denotes Neutral Site

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Week 4: October 2-3, 2011

 

 

 

 

 

Vegas Line as of: Tuesday, September 27, 2011  8:30 AM EDT

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

DALLAS Detroit

0.3

1.5

1.6

3   

47 1/2

New Orleans JACKSONVILLE

12.5

8.5

9.6

7   

46 1/2

PHILADELPHIA San Francisco

9.5

2.9

3.4

6   

41 1/2

Washington ST. LOUIS

3.2

7.1

10.2

Pk

44 1/2

Tennessee CLEVELAND

0.3

1.8

0.4

-1 1/2

38   

Buffalo CINCINNATI

3.2

2.8

4.0

3   

44   

Minnesota KANSAS CITY

1.7

4.3

2.7

1   

40   

CHICAGO Carolina

10.9

8.2

7.5

6 1/2

44   

HOUSTON Pittsburgh

1.8

3.3

4.9

4   

45   

Atlanta SEATTLE

9.1

4.5

7.1

4 1/2

41 1/2

ARIZONA New York Giants

7.5

3.2

4.4

-1   

45   

SAN DIEGO Miami

9.2

6.7

6.2

7 1/2

45 1/2

GREEN BAY Denver

16.8

14.9

15.2

13   

47 1/2

New England OAKLAND

5.3

3.5

0.9

4 1/2

53 1/2

BALTIMORE New York Jets

3.3

6.3

5.8

3 1/2

40 1/2

TAMPA BAY Indianapolis

4.4

7.4

9.3

10   

41 1/2

December 21, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010

Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers.  We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship.

So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today.

2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread.

We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact.

For instance, we made just one selection last week.  It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won.  We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick.  We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog.  All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection.

We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from.  We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition.

We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon.  Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift.  We hope it is a winning one.  Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy.

Here it is:

We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser.  For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games.  If all four games win, you win the parlay.  If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose.

There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser.  Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two.  Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog.  If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points.  That is not in your favor.  Winning teams often win games by 14 points.  

Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog.  Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog.  Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18.

Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog.  A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog.

Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals.  If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10.

The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection.  Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite.  Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference.  One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection.  However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog.  The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay.

If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game.  For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15.

Here is our Christmas gift to you.

1. 13-point teaser parlay

Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina

Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington

Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland

Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis

 

Here is our reasoning for these four games.  Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday.  Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  This is a perfect setup for the Steelers.  Carolina has nothing to play for in this game.  This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one.

Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing.  Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival.  They will not have much left in the tank this week.  Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out.  The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title.  You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright.

Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title.  The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17.  The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week.  We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay.  We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times.

We love the Raiders in this West Coast game.  Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes.  Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game.  Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City.  They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.  They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once.  We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points.

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                     
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Philadelphia 10 4 0 412 339 108.2 105.9 106.6
NY Giants 9 5 0 360 288 105.9 104.3 103.5
Dallas 5 9 0 354 396 98.7 99.2 99.8
Washington 5 9 0 268 343 93.9 96.9 95.4
Bitmap

 
                   
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay 8 6 0 333 220 108.9 107.2 105.2
Chicago 10 4 0 293 242 103.8 104.4 104.9
Detroit 4 10 0 308 329 97.3 99.7 97.8
Minnesota 5 9 0 244 314 95.1 95.9 94.2
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Atlanta 12 2 0 369 261 107.7 106.1 107.2
New Orleans 10 4 0 354 270 105.9 103.8 105.2
Tampa Bay 8 6 0 280 290 98.6 98.9 100.3
Carolina 2 12 0 183 350 90.5 88.7 90.1
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 5 9 0 250 314 96.6 95.3 98.0
St. Louis 6 8 0 258 295 95.2 94.9 96.4
Seattle 6 8 0 279 363 93.4 93.1 95.1
Arizona 4 10 0 255 370 88.2 90.6 88.2
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 12 2 0 446 303 112.8 110.6 110.9
NY Jets 10 4 0 295 259 102.8 103.3 103.8
Miami 7 7 0 239 261 100.2 100.0 99.7
Buffalo 4 10 0 273 353 98.3 98.0 97.7
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Baltimore 10 4 0 324 253 106.7 105.4 106.2
Pittsburgh 10 4 0 307 220 105.2 105.4 106.5
Cleveland 5 9 0 252 271 99.6 98.3 95.0
Cincinnati 3 11 0 281 362 95.3 95.9 94.3
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 8 6 0 381 342 101.2 102.2 101.5
Jacksonville 8 6 0 319 365 99.1 99.0 101.0
Houston 5 9 0 333 386 98.7 98.0 97.2
Tennessee 6 8 0 322 282 95.4 100.3 98.2
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 8 6 0 388 260 106.9 106.3 105.9
Oakland 7 7 0 353 330 99.9 99.7 101.3
Kansas City 9 5 0 322 281 99.4 100.7 99.6
Denver 3 11 0 292 415 91.0 91.8 93.2

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
       
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
PITTSBURGH Carolina 18.7 20.7 20.4 13.5 37
Dallas ARIZONA 7.5 5.6 8.6 6.5 45
MIAMI Detroit 4.9 2.3 3.9 3.5 41.5
PHILADELPHIA Minnesota 16.1 13 15.4 NL NL
JACKSONVILLE Washington 8.2 5.1 8.6 7 45.5
ST. LOUIS San Francisco 1.6 2.6 1.4 2.5 39.5
TAMPA BAY Seattle 7.2 7.8 7.2 6 44
New England BUFFALO 12.5 10.6 13.2 7.5 44
CHICAGO New York Jets 4 4.1 4.1 2.5 36
Baltimore CLEVELAND 4.1 4.1 8.2 3.5 38.5
KANSAS CITY Tennessee 8 4.4 5.4 5 42
OAKLAND Indianapolis 1.7 0.5 2.8 -3 47
Houston DENVER 4.7 3.2 1 3 48.5
GREEN BAY
New York Giants 6 5.9 4.7 NL NL
San Diego CINCINNATI 8.6 7.4 8.6 7.5 44
ATLANTA New Orleans 5.8 6.3 6 2.5 48.5

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

N F C

1. Atlanta 13-3

2. Philadelphia 12-4

3. Chicago 11-5

4. San Francisco 7-9

5. New Orleans 12-4

6. Green Bay 10-6

 

A F C

1. New England 14-2

2. Baltimore 12-4

3. San Diego 10-6

4. Jacksonville 10-6

5. New York Jets 11-5

6. Pittsburgh 11-5

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Chicago over Green Bay

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Philadelphia over Chicago

Atlanta over New Orleans

 

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

New England over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate QB Passer Rating 


Player Team G AYPA Int % PiRate
Tom Brady NE 14 6.8 0.89 114.2
Michael Vick PHI 11 6.6 1.52 107.6
Matt Cassel KC 13 5.8 1.31 105.0
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 10 6 1.49 104.5
Josh Freeman TB 14 5.7 1.42 103.4
Phillip Rivers SD 14 7 2.37 102.3
Vince Young TEN 9 6.2 1.92 101.8
Joe Flacco BAL 14 5.7 1.77 100.3
Kyle Orton DEN 13 5.6 1.81 99.5
Colt McCoy CLE 6 5.7 1.97 98.6
Matt Ryan ATL 14 5.2 1.76 97.6
Matt Schaub HOU 14 5.6 2.12 96.7
Aaron Rodgers GB 13 6.1 2.44 96.7
Peyton Manning IND 14 5.6 2.46 93.7
Kevin Kolb PHI 6 4.9 2.61 88.4
Mark Sanchez NYJ 14 4.6 2.55 87.3
Tony Romo DAL 6 5.7 3.29 87.0
Jason Campbell OAK 11 5.1 3.05 85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 12 4.9 2.97 85.3
Jon Kitna DAL 9 5.4 3.36 84.7
Drew Brees NO 14 5.2 3.33 83.8
Sam Bradford STL 14 4.1 2.71 83.1
Kerry Collins TEN 8 4.5 2.97 83.1
Donovan McNabb WAS 13 4.8 3.18 82.9
Shaun Hill DET 9 4.4 3.13 81.1
Jay Cutler CHI 13 4.9 3.53 80.4
Derek Anderson ARI 12 4.1 3.06 80.0
Chad Henne MIA 13 4.7 3.48 79.7
Alex Smith SF 9 4.4 3.36 79.1
Carson Palmer CIN 14 4.4 3.46 78.2
Jimmie Clausen CAR 11 3.1 2.88 76.0
Eli Manning NYG 14 5 4.19 75.1
David Garrard JAX 13 4.6 3.96 74.9
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 13 4.3 3.86 74.1
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 6 4 4.43 67.4
Jake Delhomme CLE 5 3.3 4.70 61.1
Brett Favre MIN 13 4 5.31 59.7
Matt Moore CAR 6 2 6.99 33.7
           
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

December 14, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                     
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
NY Giants 9 4 0 329 250 107.1 105.4 105.6
Philadelphia  9 4 0 374 308 107.0 105.4 105.6
Dallas  4 9 0 321 366 99.0 99.8 99.9
Washington  5 8 0 238 310 93.6 95.8 92.6
 NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay 8 5 0 306 189 108.6 106.7 105.0
Chicago 9 4 0 253 228 101.6 101.7 103.2
Minnesota 5 8 0 230 274 97.3 98.4 97.5
Detroit 3 10 0 285 309 96.5 98.1 94.8
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Atlanta 11 2 0 335 243 106.9 106.1 107.5
New Orleans 10 3 0 330 240 106.3 105.0 106.6
Tampa Bay 8 5 0 260 267 99.4 99.9 101.2
Carolina 1 12 0 164 338 90.3 88.9 89.4
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 5 8 0 243 280 98.2 97.1 99.8
St. Louis 6 7 0 245 268 96.5 95.7 98.0
Seattle 6 7 0 261 329 94.2 93.7 96.5
Arizona 4 9 0 243 351 88.4 91.3 92.5
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 11 2 0 415 276 113.1 111.8 111.1
NY Jets 9 4 0 273 242 101.6 101.1 102.5
Miami 7 6 0 225 244 101.2 101.4 101.9
Buffalo 3 10 0 256 339 97.3 97.1 96.0
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Pittsburgh 10 3 0 290 198 106.4 106.2 107.4
Baltimore 9 4 0 294 229 106.3 104.8 105.4
Cleveland 5 8 0 235 252 99.9 99.1 96.9
Cincinnati 2 11 0 262 345 95.0 95.1 93.9
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 7 6 0 347 318 100.7 101.3 101.7
Houston 5 8 0 316 355 100.2 100.0 99.0
Jacksonville 8 5 0 295 331 99.6 99.8 101.8
Tennessee 5 8 0 291 265 93.9 97.8 93.7
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 7 6 0 354 253 105.3 105.9 104.2
Oakland 6 7 0 314 307 99.2 99.1 99.8
Kansas City 8 5 0 295 268 98.1 98.6 99.5
Denver 3 10 0 269 376 91.7 92.3 89.7

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads  
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
               
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010            
Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday            
               
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals  
SAN DIEGO San Francisco 11.1 12.8 8.4 8 1/2 44 1/2  
ST. LOUIS Kansas City 1.4 0.1 2.5 NL NL  
Houston TENNESSEE 3.3 -0.8 2.3 -1 1/2 47     
INDIANAPOLIS Jacksonville 4.1 4.5 2.9 5    48 1/2  
CAROLINA Arizona 4.9 0.6 -0.1 2 1/2 37 1/2  
Cleveland CINCINNATI 1.9 1.0 3.0 -2    40     
MIAMI Buffalo 5.9 6.3 7.9 5 1/2 41     
NEW YORK GIANTS Philadelphia 3.1 3.0 3.0 2 1/2 46     
DALLAS Washington 8.4 7.0 10.3 6    45     
TAMPA BAY Detroit 4.9 3.8 8.4 6    43     
BALTIMORE New Orleans 3.0 2.8 1.8 2    43 1/2  
Atlanta SEATTLE 8.7 8.4 7.0 6    45     
PITTSBURGH New York Jets 8.8 9.1 8.9 6    35 1/2  
OAKLAND   Denver 10.5 9.8 13.1 6 1/2 44     
NEW ENGLAND Green Bay 7.5 8.1 9.1 NL NL  
Chicago MINNESOTA 1.3 0.3 2.7 NL NL  
               
PiRate Passer # 

Player

Team G AYPA Int% PiRate #    
Tom Brady NE 13 6.9 0.94 114.4    
Michael Vick PHI 10 6.8 1.36 110.1    
Matt Cassel KC 12 5.9 1.13 107.1    
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 9 6.2 1.72 103.6    
Josh Freeman TB 13 5.6 1.54 101.8    
Vince Young TEN 9 6.2 1.92 101.8    
Phillip Rivers SD 13 6.8 2.51 100.0    
Joe Flacco BAL 13 5.7 1.86 99.6    
Kyle Orton DEN 13 5.6 1.81 99.5    
Matt Ryan ATL 13 5.3 1.68 98.9    
Matt Schaub HOU 13 5.8 2.15 97.6    
Aaron Rodgers GB 13 6.1 2.44 96.7    
Troy Smith SF 5 5.6 2.38 94.4    
Colt McCoy CLE 5 5.4 2.36 93.5    
Peyton Manning IND 13 5.6 2.63 92.2    
Jason Campbell OAK 10 5 2.54 89.6    
Kevin Kolb PHI 6 4.9 2.61 88.4    
Tony Romo DAL 6 5.7 3.29 87.0    
Mark Sanchez NYJ 13 4.6 2.72 85.8    
Sam Bradford STL 13 4.3 2.53 85.8    
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 11 4.8 2.91 85.3    
Drew Brees NO 13 5.3 3.43 83.5    
Kerry Collins TEN 7 4.3 2.81 83.4    
Donovan McNabb WAS 13 4.8 3.18 82.9    
Shaun Hill DET 9 4.4 3.13 81.1    
Jay Cutler CHI 12 4.9 3.49 80.7    
Alex Smith SF 8 4.6 3.35 80.3    
Derek Anderson ARI 12 4.1 3.06 80.0    
Jon Kitna DAL 8 5.1 3.83 78.8    
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 12 4.6 3.55 78.6    
Chad Henne MIA 12 4.7 3.63 78.4    
Carson Palmer CIN 13 4.2 3.62 75.6    
Eli Manning NYG 13 4.9 4.34 73.3    
David Garrard JAX 12 4.4 4.14 72.2    
Jimmie Clausen CAR 10 2.8 3.13 72.2    
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 6 4 4.43 67.4    
Brett Favre MIN 12 4.1 5.13 61.8    
Jake Delhomme CLE 5 3.3 4.70 61.1    
Matt Moore CAR 6 2 6.99 33.7    
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8    
   
   
                           

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New Orleans

2. Philadelphia

3. Chicago

4. Seattle

5. Atlanta

6. New York Giants

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Jacksonville

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. New York Jets

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago over New York Giants

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Jacksonville over New York Jets

San Diego over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

New Orleans over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Chicago

 

New England over San Diego

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

New Orleans over New England

November 30, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 13–December 2-6, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                       
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Philadelphia 7 4 0 310 257 106.6 105.7 105.8 2
NY Giants 7 4 0 277 240 103.3 102.5 103.3 2
Dallas 3 8 0 256 301 96.8 98.9 99.5 2
Washington
5 6 0 215 262 96.3 97.1 96.1 3
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
Green Bay 7 4 0 269 166 109.9 109.9 106.8 3
Chicago 8 3 0 222 172 103.3 103.4 104.7 4
Minnesota 4 7 0 189 239 97.1 99.0 99.6 3
Detroit 2 9 0 258 282 95.0 96.7 93.9 4
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Atlanta 9 2 0 276 209 106.3 105.3 106.9 4
New Orleans 8 3 0 265 197 105.8 104.5 106.6 2
Tampa Bay 7 4 0 219 223 99.1 99.0 100.6 2
Carolina 1 10 0 140 276 92.7 90.0 90.3 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
San Francisco 4 7 0 187 225 97.2 95.4 98.3 4
St. Louis 5 6 0 213 231 95.2 94.5 97.1 4
Seattle 5 6 0 209 275 93.9 92.5 95.3 3
Arizona 3 8 0 194 319 88.0 88.3 89.7 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
New England 9 2 0 334 266 107.8 107.0 107.5 3
NY Jets 9 2 0 264 187 106.3 105.5 106.3 2
Miami 6 5 0 205 225 102.3 101.3 102.3 3
Buffalo 2 9 0 229 295 97.7 97.1 97.0 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Baltimore 8 3 0 250 188 107.4 105.9 106.1 4
Pittsburgh 8 3 0 254 181 105.0 105.7 104.9 2
Cleveland 4 7 0 216 229 98.6 99.5 98.2 4
Cincinnati 2 9 0 225 288 95.0 95.5 91.3 3
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Indianapolis 6 5 0 282 252 102.9 102.9 102.2 4
Houston 5 6 0 264 287 100.6 100.3 99.4 2
Tennessee 5 6 0 257 218 96.7 102.1 96.5 4
Jacksonville 6 5 0 240 294 96.6 96.5 98.4 3
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
San Diego 6 5 0 310 225 106.9 106.2 104.2 4
Kansas City 7 4 0 285 231 100.2 100.2 101.1 4
Oakland 5 6 0 255 256 96.3 96.4 97.7 2
Denver 3 8 0 250 323 93.6 95.2 92.2 2

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 13: December 2-6, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
PHILADELPHIA Houston 8.0 7.4 8.4 8 1/2 51 1/2
MINNESOTA Buffalo 2.4 4.9 5.6 6    44 1/2
MIAMI Cleveland 6.7 4.8 7.1 4 1/2 42 1/2
TENNESSEE Jacksonville 4.1 9.6 2.1 NL NL
KANSAS CITY Denver 10.6 9.0 12.9 8 1/2 45 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS Washington 9.0 7.4 9.2 7    43   
Chicago DETROIT 4.3 2.7 6.8 3 1/2 44 1/2
GREEN BAY San Francisco 15.7 17.5 11.5 9 1/2 42   
New Orleans CINCINNATI 7.8 6.0 12.3 6 1/2 46 1/2
Atlanta TAMPA BAY 5.2 4.3 4.3 3    44 1/2
SAN DIEGO Oakland 14.6 13.8 10.5 12 1/2 45 1/2
SEATTLE Carolina 4.2 5.5 8.0 6    39 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS Dallas 10.1 8.0 6.7 5 1/2 47 1/2
St. Louis  

ARIZONA
3.2 2.2 3.4 3    43   
BALTIMORE Pittsburgh 6.4 4.2 5.2 3    40   
NEW ENGLAND New York Jets 4.5 4.5 4.2 3 1/2 46   

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player Team AYPA Int %  #
Michael Vick Phi 6.8 0.43 118.3
Tom Brady NE 6.5 1.12 110.5
Kyle Orton Den 6.3 1.40 107.0
Matt Cassel KC 6.0 1.24 106.7
Matt Ryan Atl 5.6 1.23 104.5
Ben Roethlisberger Pit 6.4 1.82 103.8
Phillip Rivers SD 7.0 2.39 102.1
Josh Freeman TB 5.6 1.53 101.9
Vince Young Ten 6.2 1.92 101.8
Matt Shaub Hou 5.8 1.91 99.7
Aaron Rodgers GB 6.2 2.44 97.3
Seneca Wallace Cle 5.4 2.00 96.6
Joe Flacco Bal 5.7 2.19 96.6
Peyton Manning Ind 5.6 2.26 95.5
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.2 2.20 93.8
Colt McCoy Cle 5.4 2.36 93.5
Sam Bradford Stl 4.5 2.18 90.0
Matt Hasselebeck Sea 4.9 2.56 88.9
Kevin Kolb Phi 4.9 2.61 88.4
Tony Romo Dal 5.7 3.29 87.0
Drew Brees NO 5.4 3.29 85.3
Chad Henne Mia 5.3 3.27 84.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick Buf 4.8 3.03 84.2
Kerry Collins Ten 4.2 2.80 82.8
Jay Cutler Chi 5.0 3.42 81.9
Donovan McNabb Was 4.8 3.31 81.8
Derek Anderson Ari 4.2 2.93 81.7
Shaun Hill Det 4.4 3.13 81.1
Jason Campbell Oak 4.2 3.16 79.7
Jon Kitna Dal 5.2 4.00 77.9
Carson Palmer Cin 4.3 3.47 77.5
Eli Manning NYG 5.2 4.26 75.7
Jimmy Clausen Car 3.1 3.01 74.9
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
David Garrard Jax 4.3 4.42 69.2
Bruce Gradkowski Oak 4.0 4.43 67.4
Brett Favre Min 4.2 4.86 64.8
Matt Moore Car 2.0 6.99 33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
 

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  This statistic removed the receivers’ Yards After Catch.

AYPA can be found at www.advancednflstats.com

Projected NFL Playoff Seedings

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. Chicago Bears

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. St. Louis Rams

5. Green Bay Packers

6. New Orleans Saints

AFC

1. New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. San Diego Chargers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore Ravens

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Green Bay over St. Louis

Baltimore over San Diego

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Divisional Round

Atlanta over New Orleans

Chicago over Green Bay

Baltimore over New England

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

Conference Championships

Chicago over Atlanta

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL

Chicago over Baltimore

November 23, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 12–November 25-29, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed by PiRate #)                      
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Philadelphia 7 3 0 284 226 106.9 106.2 106.0 2
NY Giants 6 4 0 253 220 104.1 102.5 103.5 2
Washington 5 5 0 202 245 97.3 98.8 99.0 3
Dallas
3 7 0 229 271 96.3 98.8 99.4 2
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Green Bay 7 3 0 252 146 110.4 108.5 107.7 3
Chicago 7 3 0 191 146 103.0 102.8 102.7 4
Detroit 2 8 0 234 237 96.7 97.1 95.5 4
Minnesota 3 7 0 172 226 96.1 97.3 94.8 3
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
New Orleans 7 3 0 235 170 106.3 103.8 105.4 2
Atlanta 8 2 0 256 192 105.8 105.0 106.7 4
Tampa Bay 7 3 0 209 206 98.3 99.6 101.1 2
Carolina 1 9 0 117 252 91.5 89.0 90.4 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Seattle 5 5 0 185 233 95.4 94.9 96.0 3
St. Louis 4 6 0 177 198 94.5 94.6 95.8 4
San Francisco 3 7 0 160 219 94.2 93.9 95.6 4
Arizona 3 7 0 188 292 91.0 91.3 91.4 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
New England 8 2 0 289 242 106.1 105.6 106.9 3
NY Jets 8 2 0 238 177 106.0 105.0 106.1 2
Miami 5 5 0 172 208 100.7 100.5 100.0 3
Buffalo 2 8 0 213 276 97.2 97.0 96.2 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Baltimore 7 3 0 233 178 108.2 105.1 106.0 4
Pittsburgh 7 3 0 235 165 105.5 106.2 105.7 2
Cleveland 3 7 0 192 206 99.8 99.9 97.3 4
Cincinnati 2 8 0 215 262 95.3 95.8 93.2 3
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
Indianapolis 6 4 0 268 216 105.6 104.5 104.8 4
Tennessee 5 5 0 257 198 98.9 103.4 100.2 4
Houston 4 6 0 244 287 98.4 98.4 97.9 2
Jacksonville 6 4 0 220 270 95.8 97.6 100.8 3
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased  
San Diego 5 5 0 274 211 104.2 103.5 103.7 4
Kansas City 6 4 0 243 207 98.7 99.8 100.6 4
Oakland 5 5 0 238 223 97.9 98.1 98.9 2
Denver 3 7 0 217 287 94.3 95.4 91.1 2
 
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 12: November 25-29, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 11:30 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
New England DETROIT 5.4 4.5 7.4 6 1/2 51   
New Orleans DALLAS 8.0 3.0 4.0 3 1/2 50   
NEW YORK JETS Cincinnati 12.7 11.2 14.9 9    43   
WASHINGTON Minnesota 4.2 4.5 7.2 1 1/2 43   
Pittsburgh BUFFALO 6.3 7.2 7.5 6 1/2 43   
HOUSTON Tennessee 1.5 -3.0 -0.3 NL NL
NEW YORK GIANTS Jacksonville 10.3 6.9 4.7 7    44 1/2
CLEVELAND Carolina 12.3 14.9 10.9 11    37 1/2
BALTIMORE Tampa Bay 13.9 9.5 8.9 7 1/2 41   
CHICAGO Philadelphia 0.1 0.6 0.7 -3    42 1/2
Green Bay ATLANTA 0.6 -0.5 -3.0 -2    47 1/2
Miami OAKLAND 0.8 0.4 -0.9 NL NL
Kansas City SEATTLE 0.3 1.9 1.6 1 1/2 44 1/2
DENVER Bitmap

St. Louis
1.8 2.8 -2.7 4    44 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS San Diego 5.4 5.0 5.1 3    52   
ARIZONA San Francisco 0.8 1.4 -0.2 Pk 40   

 

Projected NFL Playoffs

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. Philadelphia

4. Seattle

5. New Orleans

6. Chicago

AFC

1. Baltimore

2. New York Jets

3. Indianapolis

4. San Diego

5. New England

6. Pittsburgh

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player Team AYPA Int% PiRate #
Michael Vick PHI 7.2 0.00 124.3
Tom Brady NE 6.1 1.22 107.5
Kyle Orton DEN 6.2 1.55 105.1
Matt Cassel KC 5.9 1.37 104.9
Matt Ryan ATL 5.6 1.33 103.7
Peyton Manning IND 5.9 1.59 103.0
Vince Young TEN 6.2 1.92 101.8
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 6.5 2.14 101.6
Phillip Rivers SD 7.0 2.55 100.8
Josh Freeman TB 5.7 1.72 100.7
Matt Schaub HOU 6.0 2.11 99.0
Joe Flacco BAL 5.7 2.12 97.3
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 2.00 96.6
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.3 2.08 95.3
Colt McCoy CLE 5.4 2.36 93.5
Aaron Rodgers GB 5.8 2.69 92.8
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 4.9 2.23 91.8
Kevin Kolb PHI 4.9 2.61 88.4
Tony Romo DAL 5.7 3.29 87.0
Sam Bradford STL 4.1 2.39 85.9
Drew Brees NO 5.2 3.36 83.6
Chad Henne MIA 5.0 3.27 83.2
Shaun Hill DET 4.5 2.95 83.2
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 4.8 3.16 83.1
Kerry Collins TEN 4.2 2.80 82.8
Donovan McNabb WAS 4.9 3.35 81.9
Derek Anderson ARI 4.2 2.94 81.6
Carson Palmer CIN 4.7 3.30 81.3
Jason Campbell OAK 4.2 3.16 79.7
Jay Cutler CHI 4.7 3.69 77.8
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
Jimmy Clausen CAR 2.8 2.90 74.2
Jon Kitna DAL 5.0 4.43 73.0
Eli Manning NYG 4.9 4.55 71.4
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 3.8 3.97 70.4
David Garrard JAX 4.7 4.67 69.2
Brett Favre MIN 4.0 5.20 60.7
Matt Moore CAR 2.0 6.99 33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com

November 16, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 11–November 18-22, 2010

Hottest Team In The League?

Quick question.  Three NFL teams have not lost a game since week six.  One of those three has outscored its opponents by 26 points per game in that time.  One has given up just one touchdown in their last two games.  The other has averaged over 30 points per game in their three-game winning streak.  Can you name these three teams?

It is no surprise that Green Bay has fared strongly in their current three-game winning streak.  The Packers were supposed to win their division and were supposed to be a top contender for the NFC representative in the Super Bowl  thanks to a powerful offense.  But, the Packers have done it with defense as of late, holding the Jets scoreless and giving up just seven to Dallas.

Atlanta has been a contender in the NFC South ever since Matt Ryan arrived.  The Falcons have scored 92 points in their three-game winning streak.

Ah, but who is this most dominating team of the trio–the one outscoring opponents by 38-12?  It’s the Oakland Raiders who all of a sudden find themselved in first place in the AFC West.  The Raiders visit Pittsburgh, and if they can beat the Steelers, they are officially back.

The Great Switch

Four games into this season, it appeared that offense was on the decline and half the league might give up less than 17 points per game.  As of late, offense has ruled.  Now half of the league could top 350 points.  This is just another part of this fascinating season in which no team appears to be dominant.  Look for 20 teams to challenge for the 12 playoff spots.  It would not surprise us to see three or more spots up for grabs in week 17.

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed alphabetically by division)                      
                       
Bitmap

NFC East
Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Philadelphia 6 3 0 257 209 106.2 104.8 105.0 2
NY Giants 6 3 0 236 193 104.8 102.8 104.3 2
Washington 4 5 0 183 229 95.6 97.2 93.5 3
Dallas 2 7 0 194 252 93.6 97.5 98.0 2
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Green Bay 6 3 0 221 143 108.1 106.5 104.5 3
Chicago 6 3 0 175 146 99.4 99.6 100.8 4
Detroit 2 7 0 215 202 98.9 99.4 97.0 4
Minnesota 3 6 0 169 195 98.4 100.0 97.6 3
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
New Orleans 6 3 0 201 151 105.8 103.1 103.9 2
Atlanta 7 2 0 222 175 104.0 103.6 104.9 4
Tampa Bay 6 3 0 188 206 96.0 96.9 98.9 2
Carolina 1 8 0 104 215 92.9 90.9 90.5 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
San Francisco 3 6 0 160 198 96.5 96.4 98.3 4
St. Louis 4 5 0 160 164 96.3 96.3 97.1 4
Seattle 5 4 0 166 199 95.9 95.8 98.1 3
Arizona 3 6 0 175 261 91.8 93.5 92.6 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
NY Jets 7 2 0 208 150 107.1 106.0 106.6 2
New England 7 2 0 258 214 106.3 105.0 106.8 3
Miami 5 4 0 172 192 102.8 102.2 102.0 3
Buffalo 1 8 0 164 245 95.0 94.7 92.9 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
Baltimore 6 3 0 196 165 106.8 104.8 105.1 4
Pittsburgh 6 3 0 200 162 103.2 104.1 104.2 2
Cleveland 3 6 0 172 182 101.6 100.3 100.7 4
Cincinnati 2 7 0 184 213 98.0 98.8 96.7 3
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
Indianapolis 6 3 0 240 185 105.4 104.1 104.7 4
Tennessee 5 4 0 241 179 102.1 104.2 101.6 4
Houston 4 5 0 217 257 97.3 97.0 97.4 2
Jacksonville 5 4 0 196 250 94.0 95.9 98.3 3
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
San Diego 4 5 0 239 197 102.6 102.2 101.9 4
Oakland 5 4 0 235 188 100.2 100.6 101.7 2
Kansas City 5 4 0 212 194 97.9 98.7 99.1 4
Denver 3 6 0 203 252 95.9 97.3 94.8 2

 

 
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 10: November 18-22, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 12:30 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
MIAMI Chicago 6.4 5.6 4.2 1 1/2 40   
PITTSBURGH Oakland 5.0 5.5 4.5 7 1/2 41   
NEW YORK JETS Houston 11.8 11.0 11.2 6 1/2 45 1/2
Baltimore CAROLINA 11.9 11.9 12.6 10    37 1/2
TENNESSEE Washington 10.5 11.0 12.1 7    44   
Detroit DALLAS 3.3 -0.1 -3.0 -6 1/2 47   
Green Bay MINNESOTA 6.7 3.3 3.9 3    44   
CINCINNATI Buffalo 6.0 7.1 6.8 5 1/2 44   
Cleveland JACKSONVILLE 4.6 1.4 -0.6 1 1/2 43   
KANSAS CITY Arizona 10.1 9.2 10.5 7 1/2 44   
NEW ORLEANS Seattle 11.9 9.3 7.8 11 1/2 44   
Atlanta ST. LOUIS 4.7 3.3 3.8 3    43   
SAN FRANCISCO Tampa Bay 4.5 3.5 3.4 3    41 1/2
NEW ENGLAND
Indianapolis
3.9 2.6 5.1 3    50 1/2
PHILADELPHIA New York Giants 3.4 4.0 2.7 3    48 1/2
SAN DIEGO Denver 10.7 8.9 11.1 10    50   
 
PiRate Passer Rating
Player Team AYPA Int% PiRate #
Michael Vick PHI 7.5 0.00 126.0
Peyton Manning IND 6.1 1.03 109.1
Kyle Orton DEN 6.6 1.43 108.4
Tom Brady NE 6 1.32 106.0
Matt Cassel KC 5.7 1.50 102.7
Phillip Rivers SD 7 2.43 101.8
Matt Ryan ATL 5.5 1.48 101.8
Josh Freeman TB 5.7 1.85 99.6
Vince Young TEN 5.8 2.14 97.6
Colt McCoy CLE 5.6 2.02 97.6
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 2.00 96.6
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 6.1 2.53 95.9
Matt Schaub HOU 5.8 2.34 95.9
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.2 2.01 95.4
Joe Flacco BAL 5.5 2.36 94.1
Aaron Rodger GB 5.6 2.97 89.2
Kevin Kolb PHI 4.9 2.61 88.4
Tony Romo DAL 5.7 3.29 87.0
Sam Bradford STL 4.1 2.40 85.9
Jason Campbell OAK 4.8 2.92 85.1
Drew Brees NO 5.1 3.21 84.3
Carson Palmer CIN 4.7 3.06 83.4
Chad Henne MIA 5 3.27 83.2
Kerry Collins TEN 4.2 2.80 82.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 4.6 3.08 82.6
Donovan McNabb WAS 4.8 3.57 79.5
Shaun Hill DET 4.4 3.37 79.0
Jay Cutler CHI 4.8 3.66 78.7
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 3.7 2.97 78.6
Eli Manning NYG 5.4 4.08 78.4
David Garrard JAX 5.1 3.89 78.3
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
Jimmy Clausen CAR 2.8 2.90 74.2
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 4.3 3.92 73.6
Derek Anderson ARI 3.7 3.87 70.7
Jon Kitna DAL 5 5.22 66.0
Brett Favre MIN 4 5.54 57.6
Matt Moore CAR 2 6.99 33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com
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