The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 9, 2019

PiRate Ratings NFL Forecast for Week 15: December 12-16, 2019

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

Margins

Home

Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baltimore

N. Y. Jets

19.3

18.9

20.6

Detroit

Tampa Bay

1.2

-1.8

-2.0

Washington

Philadelphia

-6.6

-4.1

-4.0

Green Bay

Chicago

1.0

3.5

3.6

Cincinnati

New England

-12.2

-12.8

-11.9

Tennessee

Houston

4.0

4.3

4.7

Carolina

Seattle

-5.0

-5.0

-5.0

Kansas City

Denver

7.8

8.0

8.0

N. Y. Giants

Miami

5.7

5.5

5.8

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

5.3

5.7

5.2

Oakland

Jacksonville

4.1

4.0

4.3

Arizona

Cleveland

-3.9

-4.1

-3.6

San Francisco

Atlanta

13.7

14.5

15.3

Dallas

LA Rams

-1.5

-0.2

-1.2

LA Chargers

Minnesota

0.1

1.3

0.4

New Orleans

Indianapolis

11.2

8.3

9.2

 

Totals

Home

Visitor

Total

Baltimore

N. Y. Jets

45.5

Detroit

Tampa Bay

53.5

Washington

Philadelphia

42

Green Bay

Chicago

42.5

Cincinnati

New England

42

Tennessee

Houston

44.5

Carolina

Seattle

50

Kansas City

Denver

50

N. Y. Giants

Miami

52

Buffalo

Pittsburgh

37.5

Oakland

Jacksonville

43.5

Arizona

Cleveland

47

San Francisco

Atlanta

51.5

Dallas

LA Rams

47

LA Chargers

Minnesota

44

New Orleans

Indianapolis

50

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New England

107.8

108.4

107.8

108.0

19.5

10-3

Buffalo

101.8

102.8

102.8

102.5

17.5

9-4

N. Y. Jets

94.5

95.1

94.1

94.6

21

5-8

Miami

89.7

90.0

89.9

89.9

27.5

3-10

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Baltimore

111.3

111.4

112.2

111.7

24.5

11-2

Pittsburgh

99.5

100.1

100.6

100.0

20

8-5

Cleveland

99.2

99.5

99.5

99.4

23

6-7

Cincinnati

93.2

93.1

93.4

93.2

22.5

1-12

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Tennessee

102.5

103.0

103.1

102.9

20.5

8-5

Houston

101.5

101.7

101.4

101.6

24

8-5

Indianapolis

99.1

100.1

99.6

99.6

23.5

6-7

Jacksonville

90.7

90.7

90.5

90.6

18

4-9

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Kansas City

104.4

105.1

104.9

104.8

30.5

9-4

LA Chargers

104.1

104.0

103.4

103.8

22

5-8

Denver

99.7

100.1

99.9

99.9

19.5

5-8

Oakland

91.8

91.7

91.8

91.8

25.5

6-7

 

 

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Dallas

102.6

102.9

102.4

102.6

22

6-7

Philadelphia

101.0

99.4

99.0

99.8

24

6-7

N.Y. Giants

92.9

93.0

93.2

93.0

24.5

2-11

Washington

91.9

92.8

92.5

92.4

18

3-10

 

 

North

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

Minnesota

106.5

105.2

105.4

105.7

22

9-4

Green Bay

101.7

101.8

102.0

101.8

24.5

10-3

Chicago

103.2

100.8

100.9

101.6

18

7-6

Detroit

97.3

95.8

95.9

96.4

23.5

3-9-1

 

 

South

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

New Orleans

107.3

105.4

105.8

106.2

26.5

10-3

Tampa Bay

99.1

100.6

101.0

100.2

30

6-7

Atlanta

98.6

98.7

98.4

98.5

26

4-9

Carolina

95.2

95.0

95.2

95.1

26

5-8

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Avg

Totals

W-L

San Francisco

109.3

110.2

110.7

110.1

25.5

11-2

LA Rams

106.6

105.6

106.1

106.1

25

8-5

Seattle

103.2

103.0

103.2

103.1

24

10-3

Arizona

92.8

92.9

93.4

93.0

24

3-9-1

 

The NFL Playoff Scenarios

There are numerous Playoff scenarios that can still greatly affect the remaining teams in the Playoff hunt.  After the end of Week 15, the scenarios will be easier to describe, and of course after Week 16, it will be cut and dry.  For now, here are the basics–just who wins in each scenario without going into explanations about which tiebreaker causes it.

 

Division Championships

 

AFC

If Buffalo wins at New England, and the teams finish tied for first, New England is AFC East Champs.

If Pittsburgh wins out and Baltimore loses out to finish tied at 11-5, Pittsburgh wins the AFC North Division.

If Houston and Tennessee finished tied at 10-6 or 9-7, Houston wins the AFC South Division.

Should Houston and Tennessee both finish 9-7, and Indianapolis wins their remaining three games to finish 9-7, Indianapolis would win the AFC South in a three-way tie.  Houston and Tennessee must split their two games and then lose the other game to both finish 9-7.

Kansas City has already clinched the AFC West Division.

 

NFC

If Dallas and Philadelphia finished tied at 8-8 or 7-9, Dallas wins the NFC East.

If Green Bay and Minnesota finish tied at 12-4 with Minnesota winning versus the Packers in Week 16, Green Bay wins the NFC North Division. If they both finish tied at 11-5, with Green Bay losing to either Chicago or Detroit plus Minnesota, then Minnesota wins the division.

If Chicago, Minnesota, and Green Bay finish in a three-way tie at 10-6, then Chicago wins the NFC North.

New Orleans has already clinched the NFC South.

If Seattle beats San Francisco in Week 17, and the two teams finish in a tie for first at 12-4, Seattle wins the NFC West Division. Seattle also wins a three-way tie with the 49ers and LA Rams for first at 11-5.

There is no scenario where the LA Rams can win the division, because if they win out to finish 11-5, then if San Francisco loses out to finish 11-5, that means Seattle will have had to win their Week 17 game with San Francisco to make then also 11-5, where they hold the tiebreaker.

Wildcards

 

AFC

The Wildcard tiebreaker would come into play with three non-division winners ending with 10-6 or 9-7 records.

At 10-6, Pittsburgh and Buffalo would earn the Wildcards, while Tennessee would be eliminated at 10-6. If the three teams were 9-7, then Pittsburgh and Tennessee would earn the Wildcards, while Buffalo would be eliminated.

If New England were to lose out finishing tied at 10-6 with Tennessee and Pittsburgh,  while Buffalo wins the AFC East, then The Patriots miss the Playoffs while the Titans and Steelers are the Wildcards.

NFC

There is only a minor chance that the San Francisco 49ers or Seattle Seahawks would miss the Playoffs altogether. The 49ers would have to lose all three remaining games to have a very remote chance of missing the Playoffs, and the Seahawks would have to finish behind the Rams in the standings while finishing tied with the Bears at 10-6 to miss the Playoffs. For the 49ers to miss the Playoffs at 10-6, Minnesota and Los Angeles would have to finish 11-5 and Green Bay would have to finish 12-4 or 13-3. For the sake of making this a lot easier, let’s put both Seattle and San Francisco in the Playoffs, one as division champion and one as a wildcard, since the chance for both teams making the Playoffs is better than 97%.

The final wildcard spot would be up for grabs between Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Since the Bears can only improve to 10-6 by winning out, let’s show the tiebreakers at 10-6. If Minnesota, Chicago, and Los Angeles all finish 10-6, then the Rams make it a trio from the NFC West in the Playoffs. Los Angeles also wins a tiebreaker at 11-5 with Minnesota.

The Rams also win the tiebreaker with Green Bay if Minnesota wins the North, and the Packers and Rams both finish 10-6.

The Bears can earn the Wildcard if they win out to finish 10-6 and LA finishes 9-7 or 8-8, while either Minnesota or Green Bay also finishes 10-6.

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 18, 2013

PiRate Ratings: NFL for week 16–December 19-23, 2013

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 12:29 pm

The Contenders

With two weeks to go in the regular season, there are still too many scenarios possible to list them all here.  We will do that next week.  For now, we will list the tiebreaking procedures and then show the standings by those procedures for the teams still in contention for playoff spots.

 

There are several tiebreaker levels, but realistically, none will go past a certain number and get into ridiculous point spread margins.

 

Here are the essential procedures for ties within a division, in order taken:

1. Head to Head—If one team swept the other, it is decided here

2. W-L-T in the division

3. W-L-T in common games

4. W-L-T in the conference

5. Strength of Victory (the combined W-L pct. of all teams defeated)

6. Strength of Schedule (the combined W-L pct. of all teams played)

 

Here are the essential procedures for ties outside of the division (for home field and wildcard use)

1. Head-to-Head

2. W-L-T in the conference

3. W-L-T in common games (but only if there are at least four such common games)

4. Strength of Victory

5. Strength of Schedule

 

Here is a look at the standings for all teams still in serious contention for the playoffs; we do not show Pittsburgh or the New York Jets, because so many things must happen for either to qualify, it is beyond normal possibility.  If they are still in contention next week, we will include them in this discussion.

 

A  F  C

Team

W-L-T

Division

Conf.

SOV

SOS

New England

10-4-0

3-2-0

7-3-0

.429

.474

Miami

8-6-0

2-2-0

7-3-0

.491

.520

Cincinnati

9-5-0

2-3-0

7-4-0

.488

.487

Baltimore

8-6-0

3-2-0

6-4-0

.415

.449

Indianapolis

9-5-0

5-0-0

7-3-0

.437

.480

Denver

11-3-0

4-1-0

7-3-0

.474

.505

Kansas City

11-3-0

2-3-0

7-3-0

.331

.408

San Diego

7-7-0

2-2-0

4-6-0

.524

.473

 

 

 

 

 

 

Head-to-Head Superiority

Baltimore over Miami

Cincinnati over Indianapolis

Cincinnati over New England

Denver over Kansas City

Indianapolis over Denver

Miami over Cincinnati

Miami over Indianapolis

Miami over San Diego

New England over Denver

 

N  F  C

Team

W-L-T

Division

Conf.

SOV

SOS

Philadelphia

8-6-0

3-2-0

7-3-0

.379

.449

Dallas

7-7-0

4-0-0

6-4-0

.362

.495

Chicago

8-6-0

2-3-0

4-6-0

.455

.452

Green Bay

7-6-1

2-2-1

5-5-1

.383

.454

Detroit

7-7-0

4-1-0

6-4-0

.429

.477

New Orleans

10-4-0

4-0-0

8-2-0

.493

.526

Carolina

10-4-0

3-1-0

7-3-0

.439

.497

Seattle

12-2-0

3-1-0

9-1-0

.438

.472

San Francisco

10-4-0

4-1-0

7-3-0

.418

.508

Arizona

9-5-0

1-3-0

5-5-0

.405

.495

 

 

 

 

 

 

Head-to-Head Superiority

Arizona over Carolina

Carolina over San Francisco

Detroit over Chicago

New Orleans over Arizona

New Orleans over Chicago

New Orleans over San Francisco

Philadelphia over Detroit

Seattle over Carolina

Seattle over New Orleans

 

 

Here are the remaining schedules for the contenders:

 

A  F  C

Team

Wk 16

Wk 17

New England

at Baltimore

Buffalo

Miami

At Buffalo

New York Jets

Cincinnati

Minnesota

Baltimore

Baltimore

New England

at Cincinnati

Indianapolis

at Kansas City

Jacksonville

Denver

at Houston

at Oakland

Kansas City

Indianapolis

at San Diego

San Diego

Oakland

Kansas City

 

N  F  C

Team

Wk 16

Wk 17

Philadelphia

Chicago

at Dallas

Dallas

at Washington

Philadelphia

Chicago

at Philadelphia

Green Bay

Green Bay

Pittsburgh

at Chicago

Detroit

New York Giants

at Minnesota

New Orleans

at Carolina

Tampa Bay

Carolina

New Orleans

at Atlanta

Seattle

Arizona

St. Louis

San Francisco

Atlanta

at Arizona

Arizona

At Seattle

San Francisco

 

This is how we see the races ending as of this week:

A F C

1. Denver

2. Cincinnati

3. New England

4. Indianapolis

5. Kansas City

6. Miami

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. Carolina

3. Philadelphia

4. Detroit

5. San Francisco

6. New Orleans

 

Wildcard Round

New England over Miami

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over New Orleans

San Francisco over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Kansas City over Denver *

Cincinnati over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

Philadelphia over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Cincinnati *

Seattle over Philadelphia

 

Super Bowl

Kansas City over Seattle *

 

* How could we have the Chiefs beating Denver on the road for the AFC Conference Championship and then Seattle in the Super Bowl?  It would not be the first time that Kansas City finished in second place in the West, lost twice to the first place team, and then defeated that first place team to advance to and win the Super Bowl.

 

The 11-3 Chiefs did this in 1969.  The Oakland Raiders were the class of the AFL in 1969 with a 12-1-1 record, losing only to a Cincinnati Bengal team that had perhaps the greatest quarterback ever to play less than one full season (check out our story on Greg Cook from earlier in the year).

 

The 1969 Chiefs also lost to Cook and the Bengals, but they dropped both games to Oakland.  At 11-3, KC had to face the defending Super Bowl champion Jets in New York, and the Chiefs knocked them out by completely stopping Joe Namath from throwing deep.

 

Oakland easily destroyed Houston in the other first round game.  It was 28-0 after one quarter, and “The Mad Bomber,” the great Daryle Lamonica threw six touchdown passes that day.

 

Oakland hosted Kansas City in the final AFL game.  The Raiders were favored, but the Chiefs were not to be denied.  The KC defense did the same thing to Lamonica as they had done to Namath a week earlier, and the Chiefs won 17-7.

 

Kansas City was not done.  Prohibitive underdogs to Minnesota, Kansas City held the Vikings’ offense in check to win Super Bowl IV, 23-7.  All told in three playoff games, the Chiefs gave up 20 total points to the top two offenses in the AFL and top offense in the NFL.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Philadelphia Eagles

99.0

100.0

99.2

Dallas Cowboys

97.8

98.1

97.1

New York Giants

94.5

94.4

94.1

Washington Redskins

92.1

91.9

91.4

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Chicago Bears

101.6

101.4

101.2

Detroit Lions

101.4

101.6

101.1

Green Bay Packers

98.6

97.8

97.8

Minnesota Vikings

97.3

97.3

97.1

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

105.8

106.6

106.6

Carolina Panthers

105.2

105.3

105.4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

97.2

96.9

97.3

Atlanta Falcons

94.6

93.9

93.7

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Seattle Seahawks

111.3

111.7

111.5

San Francisco 49ers

110.6

111.3

111.1

Arizona Cardinals

102.1

103.1

102.6

St. Louis Rams

100.4

101.4

101.0

       

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

104.6

103.0

104.4

Miami Dolphins

101.6

101.1

101.9

Buffalo Bills

96.3

95.7

96.3

New York Jets

91.8

90.8

91.9

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Cincinnati Bengals

106.3

106.4

106.4

Baltimore Ravens

102.8

102.5

102.8

Pittsburgh Steelers

99.4

99.4

99.8

Cleveland Browns

95.3

94.9

94.9

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

101.0

101.0

101.1

Tennessee Titans

97.3

97.6

97.5

Houston Texans

93.0

92.3

92.9

Jacksonville Jaguars

90.9

90.5

90.7

       
West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

109.6

109.9

109.9

Kansas City Chiefs

105.3

106.4

105.8

San Diego Chargers

103.7

104.3

103.8

Oakland Raiders

91.6

91.5

91.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Buffalo Miami

-2.8

-2.9

-3.1

Cincinnati Minnesota

12.0

12.1

12.3

Kansas City Indianapolis

7.3

8.4

7.7

St. Louis Tampa Bay

6.2

7.5

6.7

N Y Jets Cleveland

-1.0

-1.6

-0.5

Philadelphia Chicago

0.4

1.6

1.0

Washington Dallas

-2.7

-3.2

-2.7

Carolina New Orleans

2.4

1.7

1.8

Jacksonville Tennessee

-3.9

-4.6

-4.3

Houston Denver

-14.1

-14.1

-14.5

Seattle Arizona

12.2

11.6

11.9

Detroit N Y Giants

9.9

10.2

10.0

Green Bay Pittsburgh

2.0

1.2

0.8

San Diego Oakland

15.1

15.8

15.1

Baltimore New England

1.2

2.5

1.4

San Francisco Atlanta

19.0

20.4

20.4

 

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