NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship Preview

Welcome back to the PiRate Ratings’ Bracketnomics.  A quick tutorial about Bracketnomics:  We have studied numerous statistical factors of all Final Four Teams from the 1950’s until 2011.  We isolated the statistical similarities of those teams and found certain shared statistical characteristics.  For the last eight years, we have been applying it to the NCAA teams trying to discover which ones shared these same statistics as the Final Four teams of yesteryear.  In five of the last seven years, we were pretty spot on with our selections.  For instance, in 2009, whenKentucky,Kansas, andOhioStatewere listed as the heavy tri-favorites, our system showed Duke to be the top-rated team.  We went with Duke even though the Blue Devils were not being highly considered.  Now admittedly, we did not seeButlercoming through to the Finals that year, or last year either, but we did rateButleras one to watch to get to the Elite 8.

If you want all the details behind our PiRate Criteria Score, please refer to our Bracketnomics 505, 2012 edition at: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/03/10/bracketnomics-505-2012-edition/

 

2012 PiRate Ratings Final Four Preview—Championship Game

Monday, April 2, 2012, 9:23 PM EDT

The Superdome—New Orleans

CBS Television—Announcers: Jim Nantz, Clark Kellogg, and Steve Kerr

 

#1S Kentucky Wildcats (37-2) vs. #2MW Kansas Jayhawks (32-6)

Las Vegas Line: Kentucky by 6 ½

Over/Under: 137

 

In our founder’s lifetime, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers have met in the World Series four times (1963, 1977, 1978, and 1981), splitting them two titles apiece.  The two greatest franchises have not gone to a seventh game since 1956.

 

This is what the sports public gets to enjoy Monday night.  Kansas and Kentucky are the two most fabled basketball powers in the NCAA.  However, this is the first time the Jayhawks and Wildcats have met in the National Championship.

 

The game’s inventor, James Naismith was Kansas’s first head coach.  He turned the reins over to Phog Allen.  Allen led KU to the voted National Championship in 1922 and 1923.  One of his players on those teams was Adolph Rupp.

 

Kentucky Coach John Calipari and Kansas Coach Bill Self have a history.  Self’s lone National Championship came over Calipari in his lone appearance in the finals when Kansas came from behind to beat Memphis 75-68 in overtime. 

 

We expect this game to rival that one in excitement.  If you are a basketball fan, this game should be one you will definitely watch. 

 

These teams met at Madison Square Garden on November 15, and Kentucky won 75-65.  After battling to a 28-28 tie, Kentucky scored 11 consecutive points on a layup by Jones, a dunk by Davis, a dunk by Jones, a three-pointer by Teague, and a two-point jumper by Teague, in a three-minute stretch.  The Wildcats then pulled away to a 17-point lead and maintained a double-digit spread until the final seconds.

 

The Rosters, Scores, and Statistics

 

Kentucky Wildcats

 

No.	Name	Pos.	Ht.	Wt.	Yr.	Hometown (Last School)
1	Darius Miller	G	6-08	235	SR	Maysville,Ky.(MasonCounty)
3	Terrence Jones	F	6-09	252	SO	Portland,Ore.(Jefferson)
4	Jon Hood	G	6-07	215	JR	Madisonville,Ky.(North Hopkins)
5	Jarrod Polson	G	6-02	185	SO	Nicholasville,Ky.(West Jessamine)
10	Twany Beckham	G	6-05	205	JR	Louisville,Ky.(MississippiState)
12	Ryan Harrow	G	6-02	175	SO	Marietta, Ga. (N.C. State)
13	Sam Malone	G	5-11	190	FR	Scituate,Mass.(Scituate)
14	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	F	6-07	232	FR	Somerdale,N.J.(St. Patrick)
20	Doron Lamb	G	6-04	210	SO	Queens,N.Y.(OakHillAcademy)
23	Anthony Davis	F	6-10	220	FR	Chicago,Ill.(Perspectives Charter)
25	Marquis Teague	G	6-02	189	FR	Indianapolis,Ind.(Pike)
30	Eloy Vargas	F	6-11	244	SR	Moca,Dominican Republic(Miami-Dade CC)
32	Brian Long	G	5-09	150	FR	Dumont,N.J.(River Dell)
33	Kyle Wiltjer	F	6-09	239	FR	Portland,Ore.(Jesuit)
Coaches and Staff
John Calipari – Head Coach
OrlandoAntigua- Assistant Coach
Kenny Payne – Assistant Coach
John Robic – Assistant Coach

 

Results   Opponent	UK	Opp
Marist	108	58
(n)Kansas	75	65
(n)PennState	85	47
(n) Old Dominion	62	52
Radford	88	40
Portland	87	63
St. John’s	81	59
North Carolina	73	72
at Indiana	72	73
Chattanooga	87	62
Samford	82	50
Loyola (Md.)	87	63
Lamar	86	64
Louisville	69	62
(n) Arkansas-Little Rock	73	51
South Carolina	79	64
atAuburn	68	53
atTennessee	65	62
Arkansas	86	63
Alabama	77	71
atGeorgia	57	44
at L S U	74	50
Tennessee	69	44
atSouth Carolina	86	52
Florida	78	58
at Vanderbilt	69	63
Ole Miss	77	62
atMississippiState	73	64
Vanderbilt	83	74
Georgia	79	49
atFlorida	74	59
(n) L S U	60	51
(n)Florida	74	71
(n) Vanderbilt	64	71
ncaaWestern Kentucky	81	66
ncaaIowaState	87	71
ncaa Indiana	102	90
ncaa Baylor	82	70
ncaaLouisville	69	61

 

 

Statistics

Player	G-GS	Min	Avg	FG-Att	Fg%	3 FG-Att	3Pt %	Ft-Att	Ft%
Anthony Davis	39-39	1245	31.9	209-327	.639	3-20	.150	140-197	.711
Doron Lamb	39-34	1214	31.1	168-357	.471	73-157	.465	118-143	.825
Terrence Jones	37-33	1085	29.3	173-347	.499	16-48	.333	98-156	.628
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	39-38	1210	31.0	156-319	.489	13-50	.260	140-188	.745
Marquis Teague	39-39	1269	32.5	140-338	.414	24-77	.312	83-116	.716
Darius Miller	39-11	1018	26.1	141-297	.475	55-147	.374	55-69	.797
Kyle Wiltjer	39-0	458	11.7	71-161	.441	35-80	.438	22-27	.815
Sam Malone	6-0	13	2.2	3-6	.500	0-0	.000	0-0	.000
Eloy Vargas	32-1	196	6.1	12-36	.333	0-1	.000	4-13	.308
Brian Long	12-0	17	1.4	0-1	.000	0-0	.000	2-4	.500
Jarrod Polson	11-0	31	2.8	0-2	.000	0-1	.000	1-4	.250
Twany Beckham	16-0	44	2.8	0-1	.000	0-0	.000	0-0	.000
Kentucky	39	7800	200.0	1073-2192	.490	219-581	.377	663-917	.723
Opponents	39	7800	200.0	867-2317	.374	214-678	.316	416-599	.694
Player	Reb O	Reb D	Tot	F-DQ	Ast	TO	Blk	Stl	Pts
Anthony Davis	115	284	399	76-1	45	38	180	51	561
Doron Lamb	14	92	106	70-0	57	43	2	19	527
Terrence Jones	95	170	265	87-3	51	60	66	48	460
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	101	190	291	95-5	74	86	36	39	465
Marquis Teague	16	83	99	89-1	188	107	11	37	387
Darius Miller	35	69	104	85-0	82	56	11	33	392
Kyle Wiltjer	26	44	70	44-0	16	27	17	5	199
Sam Malone	0	2	2	0-0	1	4	0	0	6
Eloy Vargas	20	36	56	25-0	2	6	10	3	28
Brian Long	1	1	2	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Jarrod Polson	0	4	4	4-0	1	5	0	2	1
Twany Beckham	2	6	8	0-0	2	1	0	1	0
Team	50	57	107	9
Kentucky	475	1038	1513	578-10	519	442	333	238	3028
Opponents	476	775	1251	734-x	411	457	128	212	2364
Player	Scoring		Rebounding
Anthony Davis	14.4		10.2
Doron Lamb	13.5		2.7
Terrence Jones	12.4		7.2
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	11.9		7.5
Marquis Teague	9.9		2.5
Darius Miller	10.1		2.7
Kyle Wiltjer	5.1		1.8
Sam Malone	1.0		0.3
Eloy Vargas	0.9		1.8
Brian Long	0.2		0.2
Jarrod Polson	0.1		0.4
Twany Beckham	0.0		0.5
Team			2.8
Kentucky	77.6		38.8
Opponents	60.6		32.1

 

 

 

Kansas Jayhawks

 

No.       Player                           Pos      Ht         Wt        Yr         Home Town (Last Team)

0          Thomas Robinson          F          6-10      237       JR        Washington, D.C./Brewster [N.H.] Academy

1          Naadir Tharpe                G          5-11      170       FR        Worcester, Mass./Brewster [N.H.] Academy

2          Conner Teahan              G          6-06      212       SR       Leawood, Kan./Rockhurst HS

4          Justin Wesley                F          6-09      220       SO       Fort Worth, Texas/North Crowley HS/Lamar

5          Jeff Withey                    C          7-00      235       JR        San Diego, Calif./Horizon HS

10         Tyshawn Taylor             G          6-03      185       SR       Hoboken, N.J./St. Anthony HS

15         Elijah Johnson               G          6-04      195       JR        Las Vegas, Nev./Cheyenne HS

20         Niko Roberts                 G          5-11      175       SO       Huntington, N.Y./Saint Anthony’s HS

21         Christian Garrett            G          6-03      170       FR        Los Angeles, Calif./IMG Academy

22         Merv Lindsay                 G          6-07      195       FR        Moreno Valley, Calif./Canyon Springs High School

23         Ben McLemore              G          6-05      185       FR        St. Louis, Mo./Christian Life Center [Texas]

24         Travis Releford              G          6-06      207       JR        Kansas City, Mo./Bishop Miege HS

25         Jordan Juenemann         G          6-03      195       SR       Hays, Kan./Hays HS

31         Jamari Traylor               F          6-08      215       FR        Chicago, Ill./IMG Academy [Fla.]

40         Kevin Young                  F          6-08      185       JR        Perris, Calif./Perris High School/Loyola Marymount

 

 

Coaches

 

Bill Self – Head Coach

Joe Dooley – Assistant Coach

Kurtis Townsend – Assistant Coach

Danny Manning – Assistant Coach

 

Results

Opponent	KU	Att.
Towson	100	54
(n) Kentucky	65	75
(n)Georgetown	67	63
(n) UCLA	72	56
(n) Duke	61	68
FloridaAtlantic	77	54
South Florifa	70	42
Long Beach St.	88	80
OhioState	78	67
(n) Davidson	74	80
atSouthern Cal	63	47
Howard	89	34
North Dakota	84	58
KansasState	67	49
atOklahoma	72	61
atTexasTech	81	46
IowaState	82	73
Baylor	92	74
atTexas	69	66
TexasA&M	64	54
at Iowa State	64	72
Oklahoma	84	62
at Missouri	71	74
at Baylor	68	54
OklahomaState	81	66
atKansasState	59	53
TexasTech	83	50
atTexasA&M	66	58
Missouri	87	86
atOklahomaState	70	58
Texas	73	63
vs.TexasA&M	83	66
vs. Baylor	72	81
ncaaDetroit	65	50
ncaa Purdue	63	60
ncaaNorth CarolinaState	60	57
ncaaNorth Carolina	80	67
ncaaOhioState	64	62

 

Statistics

Player	gp-gs	min	avg	fg-fga	fg%	3fg-fga	3fg%	ft-fta	ft%
Thomas Robinson	38-38	1204	31.7	255-500	.510	7-14	.500	157-232	.677
Tyshawn Taylor	38-37	1267	33.3	218-457	.477	57-151	.377	135-196	.689
Elijah Johnson	38-37	1218	32.1	143-331	.432	66-197	.335	32-46	.696
Jeff Withey	38-38	936	24.6	111-203	.547	0-0	.000	123-155	.794
Travis Releford	38-37	1176	30.9	118-233	.506	25-78	.321	67-102	.657
Conner Teahan	38-2	801	21.1	68-186	.366	51-151	.338	26-31	.839
Kevin Young	37-0	421	11.4	47-98	.480	3-9	.333	33-49	.673
Jordan Juenemann	15-1	47	3.1	8-18	.444	1-6	.167	2-6	.333
Justin Wesley	37-0	324	8.8	17-30	.567	0-0	.000	11-26	.423
Merv Lindsay	12-0	26	2.2	5-9	.556	1-3	.333	0-1	.000
Naadir Tharpe	32-0	175	5.5	11-38	.289	6-22	.273	1-2	.500
Niko Roberts	7-0	14	2.0	0-4	.000	0-1	.000	0-2	.000
Christian Garrett	7-0	15	2.1	0-0	.000	0-0	.000	0-0	.000
Anthony West	1-0	1	1.0	0-0	.000	0-0	.000	0-0	.000
Total……….	38	7625	200.7	1001-2107	.475	217-632	.343	587-848	.692
Opponents……	38	7625	200.7	803-2120	.379	230-680	.338	504-700	.720
Player	Reb-O	Reb-D	Reb-Tot	Fl-DQ	a	to	blk	stl	pts
Thomas Robinson	108	338	446	105-2	71	103	34	42	674
Tyshawn Taylor	7	80	87	76-0	183	133	6	51	628
Elijah Johnson	15	109	124	91-2	135	69	2	54	384
Jeff Withey	78	160	238	95-1	28	48	136	23	345
Travis Releford	62	101	163	78-0	68	37	7	45	328
Conner Teahan	25	55	80	64-1	40	36	1	27	213
Kevin Young	52	59	111	61-0	24	29	15	20	130
Jordan Juenemann	1	7	8	4-0	2	2	1	1	19
Justin Wesley	26	33	59	69-1	1	11	14	6	45
Merv Lindsay	0	3	3	3-0	1	0	1	1	11
Naadir Tharpe	3	7	10	12-0	21	22	0	7	29
Niko Roberts	0	2	2	4-0	3	2	0	2	0
Christian Garrett	1	1	2	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Anthony West	0	0	0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	60	40	100
Total……….	438	995	1433	662-7	578	497	217	279	2808
Opponents……	407	806	1213	703-x	424	522	126	249	2340
Player	Scoring		Rebounding
Thomas Robinson	17.7		11.7
Tyshawn Taylor	16.5		2.3
Elijah Johnson	10.1		3.3
Jeff Withey	9.1		6.3
Travis Releford	8.6		4.3
Conner Teahan	5.6		2.1
Kevin Young	3.5		3.0
Jordan Juenemann	1.3		0.5
Justin Wesley	1.2		1.6
Merv Lindsay	0.9		0.3
Naadir Tharpe	0.9		0.3
Niko Roberts	0.0		0.3
Christian Garrett	0.0		0.3
Anthony West	0.0		0.0
Team			2.6
Total……….	73.9		37.7
Opponents……	61.6		31.9

 

PiRate Criteria Ratings

Criteria Stat	Kentucky	Pts	Kansas	Pts
Scoring Margin	17.0	8.50	12.30	6.2
FG% Margin	11.6	5.80	9.6	4.8
Rebound Margin	6.7	4.00	5.8	3.5
TO Margin	0.4	0.20	0.6	0.3
R + T *	8.40	3.40	7.98	3.2
Schedule  Strength ^	.5768	2.70	.5898	4.0
Road W-L% #	90.5	4.50	72.7	2.5
TOTAL	UK	29.10	KU	24.5

 

 

* R+T is the PiRate Ratings’ estimate of the margin of extra scoring opportunities per game for each team.  The formula is: (Rebounding Margin) + (0.2 *  Avg. Steals Per Game) + (1.2 * Turnover Margin).  The result shows how many more scoring opportunities the team gets than its opponents.  If the R+T is 10, that means a team averages 10 more scoring opportunities per game over its opponents.

 

^ Strength of Schedule is taken from the RPI ratings from Statsheet.com.

 

# Road W-L% includes true road games and neutral site games.

 

The Position Matchups

Point Guard: UK—Marquis Teague  KU—Tyshawn Taylor

Taylor had the better night at MSG, but Teague was playing in just his second collegiate game back on November 15.  This time around, Teague is the equal of the senior Taylor.  Taylor is a little better offensively, but his advantage will be neutralized to a great extent, because he will not be able to beat Teague to the basket and score with Jones and Davis waiting to send shots into the eighth row in the stands.

 

Advantage: Draw

 

Shooting Guard: UK—Doron Lamb  KU—Elijah Johnson

Lamb is a considerably better shooter with the ability to get open.  Johnson has a tendency to take unwise shots at times, the type that can turn into Kentucky fast breaks.

 

Johnson’s edge comes as a second point guard.  KU can reverse the ball to the opposite side, and Johnson is like a second assist specialist on the floor.

 

This will be one of three big keys in this game. 

 

Advantage: Kentucky, but very slight

 

Small Forward: UK—Michael Kidd-Gilchrist  KU—Travis Releford

Kidd-Gilchrist has a 25-pound weight advantage without giving away much in quickness to Releford.  Releford is a better defensive player than Kidd-Gilchrist, but the Wildcats only need him to stay out of foul trouble and keep the perimeter defenders from ganging up on the other two big men.

 

Advantage: Kentucky, but very slight

 

Power Forward/Center: UK—Terence Jones  KU—Jeff Withey

We had to do some changing here, because Withey will be assigned to Jones and not Davis.  This is an excellent matchup, but Jones is the better player.  Withey is probably the second best shot blocker in the nation, and he could swat away three to five shots in this game, but Jones will outshine him Monday night.

 

Jones did not have a great game against Louisville, while Withey played well against Ohio State.  We believe in the law of averages and think the unknown key in this game is that Jones is sitting on one big college finale.  We’ve seen this before.  Look for Jones to be the special factor in this game.

 

Advantage: Kentucky

 

Power Forward/Center: UK—Anthony Davis  KU—Thomas Robinson

Going back to the Yankees/Dodgers analogy, this is Sandy Koufax against Whitey Ford, Reggie Jackson against Steve Garvey, and Mickey Mantle against Duke Snider.

 

Davis is the best player in the nation, while Robinson is maybe number three if not number two.  Both of them will be pressing at the start, and the other key will be if one gets a couple of quick fouls.  All in all, these two future NBA stars will put on a great show for the audience, but in the end, we do not expect the game to be decided here.  Both will have good but not great games.

 

Advantage: Draw

 

Bench: UK—Darius Miller, Kyle Wiltjer, Eloy Vargas  KU—Connor Teahan, Kevin Young, Justin Wesley

 

Miller and Teahan are almost sixth starters, as they play almost as much as the starting fives on their teams.  Wiltjer and Young play about 10-12 minutes per game, while Wesley and Vargas see minutes only to spell starters that have to come out for a break.  With the longer timeouts in these games, Wesley and Vargas are not going to see much action.  In fact, Wesley did not play for the first time this season Saturday night.

 

Because none of the bench players is going to be asked to do much, there will be no advantage here.

 

Advantage: Draw

 

Coaching: UK—John Calipari  KU—Bill Self

These two successful coaches have ties to the same school, and that school is Kansas.  Calipari was an assistant at Kansas during the Larry Brown era, and when he left to move to the top assistant position at Pitt, Self replaced him in Lawrence.

 

Self also served as an assistant at his alma mater, Oklahoma State under two former Kentucky coaches—Leonard Hamilton (an assistant under Joe B. Hall) and Eddie Sutton.

 

Both coaches know their stuff.  They motivate their players to play tenacious defense and to work the ball into the paint for close-in shots.  This type of play wins in the Big Dance.

 

Advantage: Draw

 

Prediction:  We mentioned three keys in this game.  The first key is at the 2-guard position.  Lamb is the type of player that does not feel pressure.  If he gets a hot hand from outside, it will be lights out for the Jayhwaks.  Johnson has to stick to Lamb and not give him open looks.  He also has to contribute with three or more assists, meaning Kansas will be able to reverse the ball and avoid Davis inside.

 

The second key is the matchup of the two superstars.  If one gets into early foul trouble, the other will break loose and control the game.  Because the officials will know they can affect the outcome by whistling one of the two, we do not foresee this being a problem.

 

It is the third key where we believe this game will be decided.  We do not believe Withey, with help from Robinson, will be able to stop Jones.  Jones is sitting on a great game, and he has one left to prove us.  Calipari asked him to step down as the go-to guy, and he will motivate Jones to go out and prove that he can still carry the ‘Cats.

 

Only one team can beat Kentucky, and that is Kentucky.  The Wildcats will consider this a disappointing season if they lose.  They won’t.  We chose Kentucky at the start to win this tournament, and we were successful in picking three of the final four with Ohio State and Kansas.  We have to stick with the one we predicted three weeks ago.

 

Kentucky 72  Kansas 66