PiRate Ratings For NFL Week Eight
The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)
The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version. The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula. No subjective data is used.
The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule. As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October.
The Mean Ratings (Mean)
Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version. The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations. Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule. Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing. Point values are assigned based on each set of data. The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s. The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.
The Bias Ratings (Biased)
The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings. The five ratings are not given equal weight. The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%. I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.
All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average. If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100. The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league. A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average.
I do not attempt to rate teams from different years. A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972. We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.
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NFL Previews-Week Eight
San Diego (3-4) vs. New Orleans (3-4) (at London)
Time: 1PM EDT
TV: CBS
Forecast: Light rain expected, light winds, temperature falling from the upper 50’s to the low 50’s
PiRate: San Diego by 1
Mean: San Diego by 1
Bias: San Diego by 3
Vegas: San Diego by 3 -155/+145
Ov/Un: 46
Strategy: Over 36 in 10-point teaser, Over 33 in 13-point teaser
Tally Ho! These two teams will play in Wembley Stadium in London Sunday afternoon/evening London time. I don’t like it when the usual tendencies for games have been altered. Both teams have gotten out of their routines, and there isn’t enough prior history (just one year to be exact) to look back and discover patterns. My advice is to leave this game alone, but the only thing close to safe is to look for a high scoring game with a lot of passing.
LaDainian Tomlinson should be close to 100% for the Chargers, but I expect him to get fewer carries than normal in order to protect the injured toe.
Drew Brees should have a 300-yard passing game, and for that reason I think these teams will combine to score more than 40 points.
Kansas City (1-5) at New York Jets (3-3)
Time: 1PM EDT
TV: CBS
Forecast: Mostly sunny, moderate winds, temperature in upper 50’s
PiRate: Jets by 16
Mean: Jets by 11
Bias: Jets by 11
Vegas: Jets by 13 -610/+485
Ov/Un: 39
Strategy: Under 52 in 13-point teaser
The Chiefs’ offense has gone into hibernation. Until late in the fourth quarter last week, Kansas City had gone eight quarters without scoring a point. Brodie Croyle and backup Damon Huard are now both done for the season. Third stringer Tyler Thigpen is completing just 42% of his passes for 4.4 yards per attempt. Now, with Larry Johnson inactive again for this game, what can the Chiefs do this week? It’s not like their defense will bail them out. They are the 31st-rated stop troops in the NFL with a run defense that is on pace to give up more than 3,300 yards rushing.
The Jets had engine failure last week in Oakland, and I don’t see that problem occurring this week. Brett Favre may not have to raise his arm too many times if Thomas Jones is his usual self. He rushed for 159 yards last week and could easily equal or top that this week.
Because Coach Eric Mangini may decide to mimic Vince Lombardi and plan for his offense to grind out 80-yard drives that take 15 plays and half a quarter to score, the Jets may actually have difficulty covering the line. I wouldn’t fool with a 13-point spread. Instead, I am looking at a tease of the totals. I cannot see Kansas City scoring 17 points in this game, and I cannot see the Jets topping 35. The final score could be as low as 24-7 and as high as 35-14. So, I like “Under 52” as part of a 13-point teaser.
Atlanta (4-2) at Philadelphia (3-3)
Time: 1PM EDT
TV: Fox
Forecast: Sunny, moderate winds, temperature near 60
PiRate: Philadelphia by 10
Mean: Philadelphia by 6
Bias: Philadelphia by 6
Vegas: Philadelphia by 9½ -380/+335
Ov/Un: 45
Strategy: Philadelphia +½ in 10-point teaser, Philadelphia +3½ in 13-point teaser, Over 35 in 10-point teaser, Over 32 in 13-point teaser, Under 58 in 13-point teaser
This should be quite an entertaining game, and the Falcons believe they can pull off the upset and move on the top half of the playoff bubble. The Eagles have all their offensive weapons healthy, and Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and company should find success moving the ball in this game.
There is one big factor in this game that may not reveal itself until game time. Falcon rookie sensation Sam Baker may not be able to play, and he is a key reason why quarterback Matt Ryan has been able to pass like he is a seasoned veteran. In the one game where Baker was unable to go, the Falcons’ offense scored just nine points.
Without Baker, Atlanta cannot win this game. With a healthy Baker, they can keep it close and have a shot at the upset.
Either way, I like the Eagles to win the game, so I’ll take Philly and points in the teasers. Teasing the Totals could be iffy due to the possibility of the Falcons not being able to score without Baker in the lineup. Without him, they could struggle to reach double digits. If they score just 10 points, the Eagles would have to score 23 to satisfy a 13-point teaser and 26 to satisfy a 10-point teaser. Only tease the Over if you already know Baker will start and be able to play at near 100% effectiveness.
I could see a 13-point tease of the Under working for us. Under 58 would be very playable even if Baker starts. Atlanta’s defense should hold the Eagles to 28 points or less, and their offense won’t score 30 points.
Buffalo (5-1) at Miami (2-4)
Time: 1PM EDT
TV: CBS
Forecast: Rain likely, light winds, temperature near 80
PiRate: Buffalo by 1
Mean: Buffalo by 3
Bias: Buffalo by 4
Vegas: Buffalo by 1 -120/+100
Ov/Un: 42½
Strategy: Miami +11 in 10-point teaser, Miami +14 in 13-point teaser, Buffalo +9 in 10-point teaser, Buffalo +12 in 13-point teaser
This is an intriguing game. Buffalo’s 5-1 record is questionable when you consider that four of those wins came over teams buried deep in the standings. The one lone quality win came over a mediocre Jacksonville team, and the one loss came on the road at Arizona.
Miami has that extraordinary win at New England when they sprung the single wing offense on an unsuspecting defense. In the next game, a trick play pulled out the win over San Diego. Baltimore stuffed the offense last week. Buffalo’s defense is not in the Ravens’ class, but it is strong enough to take those pet plays away.
The Bills’ running game has been disappointing this year, while quarterback Trent Edwards has been a pleasant surprise. Miami’s defense isn’t strong against the pass. That worries me this week. I don’t really like any of the plays in this game, as I see a huge deviation in possible outcomes. I only list the teasers above, but I don’t heartily endorse any of them. Miami could win by a touchdown, and the Bills could win by two touchdowns. The score could be 28-24 or 14-10.
St. Louis (2-4) at New England (4-2)
Time: 1PM EDT
TV: Fox
Forecast: Partly cloudy, considerable wind (enough to affect game), temperature in the mid 50’s
PiRate: New England by 12
Mean: New England by 10
Bias: New England by 10
Vegas: New England by 7 -315/+285
Ov/Un: 43
Strategy: New England -7, New England -315, New England +3 in 10-point teaser, New England +6 in 13-point teaser, Under 56 in 13-point teaser
Break up the Rams! Any team that can blow out the Cowboys by 20 points must be a force to be reckoned with. Is Jim Haslett a super genius who can turn the weakest team in 20 years into the strongest team of 2008? In back-to-back weeks, the Rams won at Washington and destroyed the team expected to waltz to the Super Bowl.
New England is the perfect embodiment of a Jekyll and Hyde team. They lose big to the Dolphins and blow out the Broncos. They hold the Jets’ offense to 10 points and give up 30 to the struggling Chargers.
I believe the weather will play an important role in this game. The Rams are accustomed to playing indoors, and this game is going to be played with a stiff wind and cool temperatures. This will be no big deal for the home team.
New England’s offense woke up last week against Denver, and I don’t see the Monday night effect hurting them this week. They should be able to score 24 to 30 points against St. Louis even with a renewed defensive strength since the change of coaches.
I see the Pats winning by double digits and holding Marc Bulger and company to 17 points or less. A score of 28-14 is quite possible, so I like a tease of the Under as well as the Patriots straight up and giving a touchdown. New England would have to score more than 42 points to ruin a 13-point tease if the Rams score just two touchdowns. Even a score of 35-21 wouldn’t beat us. I would be shocked if the Pats don’t run the ball 35 or more times in this game, so total plays should be reduced.
Arizona (4-2) at Carolina (5-2)
Time: 1PM EDT
TV: Fox
Forecast: Sunny, light wind, temperature in the mid 60’s
PiRate: Carolina by 4
Mean: Carolina by 4
Bias: Carolina by 4
Vegas: Carolina by 4 -200/+170
Ov/Un: 43½
Strategy: Carolina -4, Carolina -200, Carolina +6 in 10-point teaser, Carolina +9 in 13-point teaser, Over 33½ in 10-point teaser, Over 30½ in 13-point teaser, Under 58½ in 13-point teaser
This game could be an NFC playoff preview. Arizona is in complete control in the West, while Carolina is on pace to qualify as a wildcard or possible champion of the South Division.
The Cardinals have lost both times they have ventured into the Eastern Time Zone. Their defense faltered both times. This will be the toughest opponent of the three eastern teams they will have played.
Carolina may have the best home field advantage so far this season. Their average score in Bank of America Stadium is 27-8, while their average road game score is 13-24.
Arizona had a week off, so that makes this one a bit tougher to call. I still think the Panthers have a decided advantage in this contest. Their pass defense should hold Kurt Warner about 75 yards below his average, and the Cardinals’ running game is not strong enough to take up the slack. Jake Delhomme should top 200 passing yards and lead his offense to 24 or more points. It adds up to a touchdown or more victory, so I like Carolina straight up and giving four points.
Oakland (2-4) at Baltimore (3-3)
Time: 1PM EDT
TV: CBS
Forecast: Sunny, light wind, temperature near 60
PiRate: Baltimore by 16
Mean: Baltimore by 10
Bias: Baltimore by 10
Vegas: Baltimore by 7 -325/+295
Ov/Un: 36
Strategy: Baltimore -325, Baltimore +3 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +6 in 13-point teaser, Under 49 in 13-point teaser
Is their any possibility that JaMarcus Russell can solve the Ravens’ pass defense and avoid getting clobbered by their pass rush? Will Darren McFadden be able to play this week? Even if he can go, I doubt he will carry the ball more than eight times. Ray Lewis and his band of mad men will make mincemeat out of Oakland’s offense.
The big question mark for Baltimore is who will line up at the wideout spots this week. Yamon Figurs, Derrick Mason, and Demetrius Williams may all miss this game. Running back Willis McGahee should play, but he won’t be at full strength.
I expect a low scoring game, and Baltimore knows how to win when they score just 10-14 points. I could see a score as low as 13-10 and as high as 21-17. I don’t like the spread, but I think Baltimore has better than an 80% chance of winning. Therefore, I like the money line option as well as getting the Ravens and points in the teasers. Obviously, teasing the Under at 49 looks inviting as well. I just cannot see a final score of 27-23 with both teams being hit with injuries on the offensive side.
Washington (5-2) at Detroit (0-6)
Time: 1:00PM EDT
TV: Fox
Forecast: Dome
PiRate: Washington by 15
Mean: Washington by 10
Bias: Washington by 12
Vegas: Washington by 7½ -315/+285
Ov/Un: 42
Strategy: Detroit +7½, Detroit +17½ in 10-point teaser, Detroit +20½ in 13-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser
This is my pick as trap game of the week. Detroit is bound to luck into at least one win this season, and this could be that week. The Redskins have been quite fortunate to win close games every week. They seem to play to the quality of the opposition. Their offense has gone south the last two weeks against the Rams and Browns, two teams not noted for excellence in defense.
Detroit has nothing to lose except maybe the rights to Tim Tebow if they win one too many games this year. With the loss of Roy Williams and Jon Kitna, the Lions changed their strategy last week against Houston. Calvin Johnson was used more like Bob Hayes was used by the Cowboys in the late 1960’s. Johnson ran deep routes, while Mike Furrey became the possession receiver. It worked to some extent, and it opened some holes for the running game. Dan Orlovsky’s passing line looked like one from the 1960’s AFL.
Washington’s offense lives or dies with the running of Clinton Portis. Portis could rush the ball 25 times and pick up 125 yards in this game, and the Redskins will still have to score with their passing game to win this one.
The numbers add up to a huge Washington win, but I believe the numbers will give away some to intangibles this week. Call it a gut instinct, but I think Detroit will keep this one close and have a chance to win it in the final period.
Tampa Bay (5-2) at Dallas (4-3)
Time: 1:00PM EDT
TV: Fox
Forecast: Sunny, light wind, temperature near 80
PiRate: Tampa Bay by 5
Mean: Tampa Bay by 2
Bias: Tampa Bay by 3
Vegas: Dallas by 2½ -140/+120
Ov/Un: 40½
Strategy: Tampa Bay +12½ in 10-point teaser, Tampa Bay +15½ in 13-point teaser, Over 27½ in 13-point teaser
The Dallas defense has fallen on rough times, and head coach Wade Phillips will be calling the defensive plays this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to lower the score of this game by complimenting his defensive play-calling with a time-consuming, conservative offensive game plan.
Tampa Bay is primed to take over the label of Super Bowl favorite this week. A Buccaneer win would definitely place them at the top of the NFC pecking order, especially if the Giants lose at Pittsburgh.
Even if the Bucs cannot pull off the mild road upset, I see them keeping this game close. Dallas was only able to beat Cincinnati by nine points at Texas Stadium, so there’s no reason to believe they can beat Tampa Bay by double digits without Tony Romo.
Tampa Bay is definitely one of the top three teams in the NFC and top six in the NFL. I love the chance to get them and double digit points in any game at any location. So, I’ll take Jon Gruden’s team and a boatload of points. Also, I think both teams will at least reach 14 points, so I like teasing the Over as well.
Cleveland (2-4) at Jacksonville (3-3)
Time: 4:05 PM EDT
TV: CBS
Forecast: Partly cloudy, light winds, temperature in the low 70’s
PiRate: Jacksonville by 4
Mean: Jacksonville by 5
Bias: Jacksonville by 7
Vegas: Jacksonville by 7 -315/+285
Ov/Un: 42
Strategy: Cleveland +17 in 10-point teaser, Cleveland +20 in 13-point teaser, Under 55 in 13-point teaser
Welcome to Staphgate. The medical news coming out of Cleveland this week has overshadowed the team’s on-the-field performance. It could foretell a Browns’ collapse, but it could also cause the team to rally and play a fantastic 60 minutes of football.
Jacksonville may be the most boring team in the league unless you are an old Ohio State football fan who likes three yards and a cloud of dust football. Not having receivers Matt Jones and Mike Walker means the Jags will run the ball even more than the norm. Look for backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor to combine for 30 attempts this week.
Cleveland has actually been playing decent football the last couple of weeks, and they could pull off another surprise or two in the coming weeks. The one problem this week is that Jacksonville has enjoyed an extra week of preparation. While I see the Jags winning this game, I am not sure they will be able to win big. Their biggest win to date is a seven point victory over Denver.
I like, but don’t love, taking the Browns in teasers. Because there could be more running than normal in this game, I also like teasing the Under at 55. I could see this game ending in a 27-20 score at a maximum.
Cincinnati (0-7) at Houston (2-4)
Time: 4:05PM EDT
TV: CBS
Forecast: Partly cloudy, light winds, temperature in the low 80’s
PiRate: Houston by 5
Mean: Houston by 8
Bias: Houston by 9
Vegas: Houston by 9½ -380/+335
Ov/Un: 44½
Strategy: Houston -380, Over 31½ in 13-point teaser
This game was supposed to be played the week Hurricane Ike struck the Lone Star State. At the time, Cincinnati would have had a much better chance to win this game. Now, Houston enters this contest on a two-game winning streak, while the Bengals have more than likely folded their hand for the season. The Texans are almost double digit favorites.
The key stat for this game is the difference in the Bengals’ offense with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback instead of Carson Palmer. With Fitzpatrick running the team, Cincinnati has averaged 12 points per game. In Palmer’s four games, the Bengals averaged only 15.5 points per game, but they competed in those games against the likes of Baltimore, Tennessee, the Giants, and Dallas.
This will actually be the first weaker than average defense Cincinnati will face this season. I look for Fitzpatrick to lead the orange and black north of the 20-point barrier. However, the Bengals are hurting on the other side of the ball, and they will give up considerably more than 20 points to an improving offense. The Texans have average about 28 points per game the last four weeks against defenses that are mostly better than Cincinnati’s.
I could see this game being decided late, but I think Houston will make it three straight victories. I don’t like the line, so I recommend the money line. I am looking at a 28-21 score here, so I believe the totals can be teased safely.
New York Giants (5-1) at Pittsburgh (5-1)
Time: 4:15PM EDT
TV: Fox
Forecast: Partly cloudy, moderate winds, temperature dropping from the mid 50’s to near 50
PiRate: Pittsburgh by 4
Mean: Pittsburgh by 4
Bias: Pittsburgh by 4
Vegas: Pittsburgh by 3 -140/+130
Ov/Un: 42
Strategy: Pittsburgh -3, Pittsburgh -140, Under 55 in 13-point teaser
This is the game of the week and could be a preview of the Super Bowl. I tend to think the Giants will not make it through the playoffs this year, but that is beyond the point this week.
In my opinion, the Steelers are capable of finishing 13-3 or even 14-2 and earning home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Their defense will give up less than 250 points, and their offense will top 400 when the season ends. Running back Willie Parker should return to the field this week. Ben Roethlisberger is playing like an all-pro, and Hines Ward is playing with a chip on his shoulder.
The Giants have been relying on Brandon Jacobs to take enough heat off Eli Manning, and it has worked most weeks. Jacobs will not run the ball for 80 yards in this game, and Manning will have to win it with a big aerial assault. I don’t think he can pull it off. Call it a 20-13 win for the black and gold.
Seattle (1-5) at San Francisco (2-5)
Time: 4:15PM EDT
TV: Fox
Forecast: Sunny, light winds, temperature in the mid to upper 70’s
PiRate: San Francisco by 7
Mean: San Francisco by 4
Bias: San Francisco by 5
Vegas: San Francisco by 5 -230/+190
Ov/Un: 40½
Strategy: San Francisco -230, San Francisco +5 in 10-point teaser, San Francisco +8 in 13-point teaser
Here, we have the initial second meeting of the season for divisional rivals. The 49ers won the first meeting in Seattle, but things have changed since then. Mike Nolan was shown the door last week after San Francisco lost at the Giants. The interim coach is former Bears’ great Mike Singletary. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz, who directed the Rams to a Super Bowl, was passed over. Now, take into consideration that lame-duck Seahawks’ coach Mike Holmgren has had to dispel rumors all week that he will be the new 49er coach in 2009, and it makes this game much harder to diagnose.
Which of these teams will be more ready to play? I think San Francisco will play with more emotion in the early stages of the Singletary administration. The players will fear him if they don’t bust their butts on every play. Martz will still have full authority on the offensive play-calling, so I think the 49ers will be an improved team, at least for the next few weeks. It adds up to a sweep in this year’s series, but I am not ready to call for a touchdown difference. Therefore, I am going with the money line as well as taking the home team in teasers.
Indianapolis (3-3) at Tennessee (6-0)
Time: 8:30PM EDT Monday
TV: ESPN
Forecast: Partly cloudy, moderate winds, temperature dropping from upper 40’s to lower 40’s
PiRate: Tennessee by 11
Mean: Tennessee by 9
Bias: Tennessee by 8
Vegas: Tennessee by 4 -200/+170
Ov/Un: 41
Strategy: None
Let’s look at some of the facts for this game. It is the Monday night game, and we all know how unpredictable those games have proven to be through the years. It is the top rivalry game in the AFC South, and the two teams play like it is the old Raiders and Chiefs series from the AFL days. Tennessee has been running over run defenses like they have Walter Payton and Barry Sanders at running back. Indianapolis has been a feast or famine team with their offense either looking terrific or terrible from week-to-week.
The Colts could score 28 points and pick up 250-300 passing yards, but they could easily watch LenDale White and Chris Johnson combine for 250 or more rushing yards. Indianapolis hasn’t been able to stop enemy rushing attacks this year.
I just don’t like any possible plays here this week. I think Indianapolis could spoil the Titans’ perfect record if Peyton Manning plays like he did against Baltimore, but if he is not on his game and has a repeat performance of last week’s game in Green Bay, this game could be ugly. Tennessee would like nothing more than to win by three touchdowns and make the rest of the nation respect them at 7-0.
The Imaginary Bank Account Suffers First Losing Week
It had to happen. I knew my luck would run out eventually, and last week I suffered my first losing week of the year. The selections went 8-9 lowering my selections against the spread for the year to 52-28-3 (65%). The account gave up $310, and that lowered the balance to $1,675. For the year, my Return on investment is now 20.2%.
My straight selections continued to do well, as I was 3-1 on those picks. The Teasers let me down, as there were too many odd games. The Bears-Vikings game was a huge surprise to nearly everybody. How about that Rams-Cowboys game-somebody forgot to tell St. Louis they are no longer the “Greatest Show on Turf.”
This week, I am torn between playing straight picks, where I have been quite successful this season and playing the teasers, where I have been successful over the course of several years. It’s a tough call, but I am going to play more sides than teasers this week.
Here are my wagers for week eight (all wagered to win $100):
1. New England -7 vs. St. Louis
2. New England -315 vs. St. Louis
3. Carolina -4 vs. Arizona
4. Carolina -200 vs. Arizona
5. Baltimore -325 vs. Oakland
6. Detroit +7½ vs. Washington
7. Houston -380 vs. Cincinnati
8. San Francisco -230 vs. Seattle
9. Pittsburgh -3 vs. New York Giants
10. Pittsburgh -140 vs. New York Giants
11. 10-point teaser parlay
A. San Diego & New Orleans Over 36
B. Philadelphia & Atlanta Over 35
C. Miami +11 vs. Buffalo
12. 10-point teaser parlay
A. New England +3 vs. St. Louis
B. Carolina +6 vs. Arizona
C. Carolina & Arizona Over 33½
13. 10-point teaser parlay
A. Detroit +17½ vs. Washington
B. Tampa Bay +12½ vs. Dallas
C. San Francisco +5 vs. Seattle
14. 13-point teaser parlay
A. Jets & Kansas City Under 52
B. Philadelphia +3½ vs. Atlanta
C. Miami +14 vs. Buffalo
D. New England +6 vs. St. Louis
15. 13-point teaser parlay
A. Carolina +9 vs. Arizona
B. Carolina & Arizona Over 30½
C. Baltimore +6 vs. Oakland
D. Baltimore & Oakland Under 49
16. 13-point teaser parlay
A. Detroit +20½ vs. Washington
B. Detroit & Washington Over 29
C. Tampa Bay +15½ vs. Dallas
D. Tampa Bay & Dallas Over 27½
17. 13-point teaser parlay
A. Cleveland +20 vs. Jacksonville
B. New York Giants & Pittsburgh Under 55
C. San Francisco +8 vs. Seattle
D. Houston & Cincinnati Over 31½
AND REMEMBER!!! Do not use these picks for real. I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment. I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either. This is strictly for fun.
The Pi-Rate Ratings 