The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 10, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 10: November 12-16, 2009

Introducing NFL Playoff Projections

 

If you are a college football fan, you probably have seen multiple Internet sites showing weekly bowl projections.  Maybe, you’ve even seen ours.  Why not have NFL playoff projections?  Unlike college football, the NFL playoff rules are always known.  The best two division winners in both leagues receive byes, while the third best division winners host the lowest qualifying wildcards, and the fourth best division winners host the wildcard with the better records.

 

So, beginning today, we will list our projections.  This will not be one of those “if the playoffs started today lists; it will be projections based on where we believe every team will finish.

 

Let’s start with the AFC.  In the East, we believe New England already has clinched the division title and will finish with the second best record among the four division winners.

 

In the South, we believe Indianapolis could win the division by five or more games and secure home field advantage.

 

The North is still very much up for grabs, but the way Pittsburgh is playing these days, they could very well finish 12-4 or better. 

 

In the West, Denver may be swooning once again.  San Diego’s running game has abandoned them, but the passing of Phillip Rivers may be enough to overtake the Broncos.

 

Cincinnati should win enough games to grab one wildcard spot, but the other spot should go down to the final week before it is decided.  Baltimore has a tough schedule, and we believe the Ravens will fall a game short.  Denver and the New York Jets both have great shots at 10 wins.  We’ll give the edge to the Jets.

 

So, as of today, we see the Jets visiting Pittsburgh, and the Bengals visiting San Diego in the opening playoff weekend.  The higher remaining seed will play at New England the following week, and the lower remaining seed will play at Indianapolis.

 

In the NFC, Dallas sure looks like the cream of the East.  Don’t count out the Eagles or Giants, but the Cowboys could easily finish 12-4.

 

New Orleans already has the South race in hand.  Whether they can go 16-0 is no matter, because at 13-3, they should still have the best record in the conference.

 

Minnesota has a three-game lead on the Bears and Packers, and only another Brett Favre injury could prevent the Vikings from winning the North Division.

 

Arizona may have to fight off a late rush by San Francisco or Seattle, but we believe the Cardinals will repeat in the West.

 

Philadelphia and the Giants will jockey it out with one team winning 10 and the other winning nine.  For now, we’ll go with the Eagles as the lucky 10-win team.  We think Atlanta will win 10 games as well and take the top Wildcard spot.

 

That leaves Philadelphia visiting Arizona and Atlanta playing at Dallas in the opening round of the playoffs.  The higher remaining seed will play at Minnesota, while the lower remaining seed goes to New Orleans.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
               
               
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NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas 104.4 106.2 105.6 6-2-0 217 152
Philadelphia 103.8 104.7 104.6 5-3-0 219 153
NY Giants 103.8 102.1 102.3 5-4-0 232 204
Washington 93.0 92.6 93.4 2-6-0 113 154
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 106.5 105.8 106.6 7-1-0 244 174
Green Bay 99.6 99.5 100.3 4-4-0 215 172
Chicago 98.6 98.2 99.9 4-4-0 180 191
Detroit 90.7 88.2 86.7 1-7-0 133 237
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 114.1 112.5 111.2 8-0-0 303 174
Atlanta 104.3 104.2 104.0 5-3-0 202 166
Carolina   99.1 98.2 97.5 3-5-0 148 196
Tampa Bay 91.4 91.9 91.1 1-7-0 134 231
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 103.8 104.3 103.3 5-3-0 198 164
San Francisco 98.6 98.6 98.1 3-5-0 174 174
Seattle 96.2 96.6 96.6 3-5-0 167 167
St. Louis 86.3 87.5 91.1 1-7-0 77 221
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 111.5 108.8 108.7 6-2-0 225 115
NY Jets 101.5 102.9 101.4 4-4-0 177 134
Miami 99.4 102.8 99.7 3-5-0 193 204
Buffalo 96.3 96.2 96.0 3-5-0 123 169
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Pittsburgh 109.4 106.8 106.7 6-2-0 195 139
Baltimore 108.8 105.6 104.6 4-4-0 206 154
Cincinnati 105.0 105.2 105.5 6-2-0 180 135
Cleveland 88.0 89.4 88.2 1-7-0 78 209
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 111.0 108.7 108.0 8-0-0 217 108
Houston 103.8 102.9 103.0 5-4-0 215 188
Tennessee 97.4 97.0 98.2 2-6-0 148 238
Jacksonville 92.2 94.6 97.3 4-4-0 157 198
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 103.7 102.3 104.1 5-3-0 206 179
Denver 99.3 103.1 103.4 6-2-0 150 124
Oakland 89.3 90.8 91.7 2-6-0 78 201
Kansas City 88.5 91.9 91.2 1-7-0 126 205

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 10 = 2.4            
Vegas Line as of 8:30PM EDT Tuesday            
Thursday, November 12, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
SAN FRANCISCO Chicago 2.4 3.0 0.6 3    43 1/2
             
Sunday, November 15, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
NEW YORK JETS Jacksonville 11.7 10.7 6.5 7    40   
Denver WASHINGTON 3.9 8.1 7.6 3 1/2 36 1/2
PITTSBURGH Cincinnati 6.8 4.0 3.6 7    41 1/2
TENNESSEE Buffalo 3.5 3.2 4.6 6 1/2 40 1/2
MINNESOTA Detroit 18.2 20.0 22.3 16 1/2 47 1/2
New Orleans ST. LOUIS 25.4 22.6 17.7 13 1/2 50   
Atlanta CAROLINA 2.8 3.6 4.1 2    44 1/2
MIAMI Tampa Bay 10.4 13.3 11.0 10    44   
OAKLAND Kansas City 3.2 1.3 2.9 2    36 1/2
ARIZONA Seattle 10.0 10.1 9.1 8 1/2 47   
SAN DIEGO Philadelphia 2.3 0.0 1.9 2    47   
Dallas GREEN BAY 2.4 4.3 2.9 3    47 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS New England 1.9 2.3 1.7 3    49 1/2
             
Monday, November 16, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Baltimore CLEVELAND 18.4 13.8 14.0 10 1/2 40    

November 3, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Nine: November 8-9, 2009

Five Key Intra-Divisional Games Highlight Week

 

Week nine finds five key intra-divisional games as well as three other inter-divisional spectaculars.  Cincinnati beat the Ravens in Baltimore earlier in the season, and if the Bengals complete the sweep, Baltimore will find its playoff hopes beginning to dim.

 

Houston visits Indianapolis, and if the Colts win, they will be up four games at the halfway point of the season.  Should the Texans find a way to pull off the upset, Coach Gary Kubiak’s squad will climb to the top of the Wildcard bubble.

 

New England hosts Miami, and the Patriots are coming off a bye week.  A New England win will virtually clinch the AFC East title, but a Dolphin win throws the race open once again.

 

Carolina visits New Orleans in a game that looks like another easy win for the Saints.  However, the Panthers won at Arizona last week, and they could climb back in the playoff race with an upset.

 

Dallas visits Philadelphia, and to the winner goes first place in the NFC East.  It should be an exciting Sunday night game with scoring aplenty.

 

The other three big games are Arizona at Chicago, San Diego at New York (Giants), and Pittsburgh at Denver on Monday night.  All six of these teams are jockeying for playoff positioning.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Philadelphia 104.6 105.0 104.9 5-2-0 203 133
NY Giants 104.2 102.8 102.0 5-3-0 212 183
Dallas 103.6 104.8 104.7 5-2-0 197 136
Washington 93.0 92.9 92.4 2-5-0 96 123
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 106.5 105.9 106.6 7-1-0 244 174
Green Bay 102.8 102.5 102.8 4-3-0 187 134
Chicago 100.9 100.8 101.5 4-3-0 159 150
Detroit 91.3 89.6 89.0 1-6-0 113 205
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 114.6 112.5 112.0 7-0-0 273 154
Atlanta 104.3 104.2 104.1 4-3-0 171 149
Carolina   98.6 96.7 97.8 3-4-0 128 166
Tampa Bay 88.2 89.7 87.2 0-7-0 96 203
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 101.5 102.3 101.3 4-3-0 157 143
San Francisco 101.1 100.7 102.1 3-4-0 147 140
Seattle 95.6 96.9 96.7 2-5-0 135 147
St. Louis 86.3 87.9 90.6 1-7-0 77 221
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 111.7 108.3 108.8 5-2-0 198 98
NY Jets 101.5 103.3 100.9 4-4-0 177 134
Miami 99.2 102.5 102.1 3-4-0 176 177
Buffalo 96.3 96.2 98.5 3-5-0 123 169
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 110.5 107.1 107.1 4-3-0 199 137
Pittsburgh 107.3 104.3 105.9 5-2-0 167 129
Cincinnati 103.3 103.4 104.3 5-2-0 163 128
Cleveland 88.0 90.4 85.5 1-7-0 78 209
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 111.7 108.2 109.9 7-0-0 197 91
Houston 103.1 102.0 103.4 5-3-0 198 168
Tennessee 94.9 94.9 94.3 1-6-0 114 211
Jacksonville 92.4 94.6 96.8 3-4-0 133 177
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 103.3 101.9 104.0 4-3-0 185 159
Denver 101.4 105.3 104.9 6-1-0 140 96
Oakland 89.3 90.6 89.9 2-6-0 78 201
Kansas City 88.3 92.2 88.3 1-6-0 105 181

 

This Week’s Games

 

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 9 = 2.3            
Vegas Line as of 5:30PM EDT Tuesday            
Sunday, November 8, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals

 

JACKSONVILLE Kansas City 6.4 4.7 10.8 6    42   

 

Baltimore CINCINNATI 4.9 1.4 0.5 3    44   

 

INDIANAPOLIS Houston 10.9 8.5 8.8 9    47 1/2

 

ATLANTA Washington 13.6 13.6 14.0 10 ½ 41 1/2

 

Green Bay TAMPA BAY 12.3 10.5 13.3 10    43 1/2

 

CHICAGO Arizona 1.7 0.8 2.5 3    44   

 

NEW ENGLAND Miami 14.8 8.1 9.0 10 1/2 46 1/2

 

NEW ORLEANS Carolina 18.3 18.1 16.5 13 1/2 51 1/2

 

SEATTLE Detroit 6.6 9.6 10.0 10    43   

 

SAN FRANCISCO Tennessee 8.5 8.1 10.1 4    41   

 

NEW YORK GIANTS San Diego 3.2 3.2 0.3 5    47 1/2

 

PHILADELPHIA Dallas 3.3 2.5 2.5 3    47 1/2

 

             

 

             

 

             

 

             

 

Monday, November 9, 2009            

 

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals

 

Pittsburgh DENVER 3.6 -3.3 -1.3 3    39 1/2

 

October 27, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Eight: November 1-2, 2009

All Eyes On The Frozen Tundra

Favre Returns to Green Bay

 

The date has been circled on thousands of calendars in the Badger state since August.  Rumors have it that almost three dozen hotel and motel rooms were reserved by friends and family even before the announcement had been made that Brett Favre was indeed signing with the Minnesota Vikings.  It’s finally here!  Favre returns to Lambeau Field for the first time since he left the Packers.  The last pass he threw at Lambeau was intercepted by New York Giants defensive back Corey Webster.  It broke the hearts of 73,000 fans who were all sure Green Bay was headed to the Super Bowl.

The Minnesota Vikings have many thousand loyal fans in Wisconsin. Near the town of Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin, is the Half-Way Bar.  It supposedly sits equidistant from Lambeau Field and the old Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington, where the Vikings played before moving into the Metrodome (It is now the location of the Mall of America).  The eastern half of this bar is painted Green and Gold, while the western half of this bar is painted purple and white.  The patrons sip on Leininkugel’s beer, eat brats and fried cheese curds, and carry on like the other half of the bar doesn’t exist.  Well, at least that’s so until a Packer fan yells out something about the “ViQueens.”  Then, it becomes the Hatfield’s and McCoy’s bar.

Almost overlooked by the rivalry is the fact that this game is very important in the standings.  A Green Bay win moves the Packers just ½ game behind Minnesota.  A Viking win gives them a 2 ½ game lead plus a sweep over Green Bay.  How do the PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings see this game?  Look below; it’s should be one worth watching even if you have to go to the Half-Way Bar to do so.

Will this game be one of our picks against the spread this week?  It will cost you just $5 to get all of our picks.  Go to www.piratings.webs.com to purchase our picks for the week.  If you played with us last week, then our picks made you happy as they finished 8-2-1.  

NFC East
PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Giants 105.5 105.0 105.9 5-2-0 195 143
Philadelphia 103.3 102.6 103.1 4-2-0 163 116
Dallas 102.7 104.3 104.6 4-2-0 159 119
Washington 93.0 93.1 92.0 2-5-0 96 123
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 105.6 104.5 107.0 6-1-0 206 148
Green Bay 103.7 105.3 105.6 4-2-0 161 96
Chicago 100.2 99.6 98.9 3-3-0 129 144
Detroit 93.0 90.5 92.1 1-5-0 103 188
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 115.0 113.5 113.7 6-0-0 238 127
Atlanta 103.9 102.4 103.8 4-2-0 144 114
Carolina   96.8 94.2 94.8 2-4-0 94 145
Tampa Bay 88.2 89.5 89.1 0-7-0 96 203
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 103.3 104.5 105.3 4-2-0 136 109
San Francisco 100.3 100.4 99.1 3-3-0 133 122
Seattle 96.5 97.6 96.0 2-4-0 118 109
St. Louis 84.9 86.5 86.1 0-7-0 60 211
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 111.7 108.8 109.7 5-2-0 198 98
NY Jets 102.0 104.1 101.4 4-3-0 152 104
Miami 98.7 101.9 99.7 2-4-0 146 152
Buffalo 97.6 97.3 96.7 3-4-0 113 138
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 109.3 105.2 103.1 3-3-0 169 130
Pittsburgh 107.3 104.7 107.4 5-2-0 167 129
Cincinnati 103.3 103.1 104.5 5-2-0 163 128
Cleveland 88.7 90.9 89.5 1-6-0 72 179
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 112.5 109.8 111.8 6-0-0 179 77
Houston 101.8 99.8 101.1 4-3-0 167 158
Tennessee 93.7 93.3 90.4 0-6-0 84 198
Jacksonville 93.6 96.7 96.4 3-3-0 120 147
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 104.0 101.7 101.9 3-3-0 161 143
Denver 102.6 108.2 108.3 6-0-0 133 66
Oakland 88.6 89.6 91.0 2-5-0 62 177
Kansas City 88.3 91.5 90.1 1-6-0 105 181
This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 7 = 2.2            
Vegas Line as of 4:30PM EDT Tuesday            
Sunday, November 1, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
BALTIMORE Denver 8.9 -0.8 -3.0 3 1/2 42   
CHICAGO Cleveland 13.7 10.9 11.6 13 1/2 40   
Houston BUFFALO 2.0 0.3 2.2 3    41 1/2
GREEN BAY Minnesota 0.3 3.0 0.8 3    47 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS San Francisco 14.4 11.6 14.9 12    43 1/2
NEW YORK JETS Miami 5.7 4.4 3.9 3    40 1/2
DETROIT St. Louis 10.3 6.2 8.2 NL NL
DALLAS Seattle 8.4 8.9 10.8 9 1/2 46   
SAN DIEGO Oakland 17.6 14.3 13.1 16 1/2 41 1/2
TENNESSEE Jacksonville 2.3 -1.2 -3.8 3    44 1/2
ARIZONA Carolina 8.7 12.5 12.7 9 1/2 41   
PHILADELPHIA New York Giants 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 1 1/2 44   
             
             
             
             
Monday, November 2, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
NEW ORLEANS Atlanta 13.3 13.3 12.1 10    54 1/2

October 20, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Seven: October 25-26, 2009

Vikings-Steelers Headline The Week

 

Brett Favre is the modern day Y.A. Tittle.  Tittle was considered over-the-hill and washed up after 1960.  After playing three years with the Baltimore Colts, two of them in the old All American Football Conference, Tittle spent 10 years with the San Francisco 49ers.  In 1960, John Brodie took his job away.  Tittle went to the New York Giants for the 1961 season and spent four years starting as their quarterback.  His record as a starter for the Giants his first three years was 31-5-1, and his best statistical season was 1963 at the age of 37, when he led the NFL with a 104.8 passer rating.  Tittle led the Giants to the NFL Championship Game all three of those years.

 

History lesson over.  Favre is three years older now than Tittle was in 1963, but through six games, he is having his best year statistically in his career.  His 109.5 passer rating is almost 10 points higher than his previous best.  He’s completing nearly 70% of his passes, and he has 12 touchdown strikes to just two interceptions.

 

His counterpart Sunday, Ben Roethlisberger, is also off to his best ever start in the NFL.  His 104.5 Passer Rating looks all the more impressive when you throw in he is leading the AFC in passing yards. 

 

This should be quite an entertaining game this week, and who know?  We could be watching a preview of the Super Bowl. 

 

The other big game this week is New Orleans at Miami.  It’s awfully early in the season, but the Dolphins have quite a history for ending opposing teams’ undefeated seasons.  Miami is playing sound ball after beginning the season with three tough losses.  The Dolphins benefit from having an extra week to prepare for this game, and it’s their style of play that could put keep Drew Brees on the sideline longer than he needs to stay sharp.

 

We here wonder how the New England Patriots will be received in London.  Will the fans at Wembly Stadium cheer for the team with the word “England” in their title, or will they boo a team with the nickname of “Patriots?”  It won’t affect the game, because the team with the name “Tampa Bay” could hire Tony Blair or Gordon Brown as coach and perform no worse than they have to date.  Too bad the Bucs don’t play St. Louis or Tennessee.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

 

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

NY Giants

107.6

106.3

106.6

5-1-0

178

119

Philadelphia 

103.0

103.3

103.3

3-2-0

136

99

Dallas  

99.7

102.4

102.4

3-2-0

122

98

Washington

93.3

93.7

91.6

2-4-0

79

96

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Minnesota

106.4

105.4

107.4

6-0-0

189

121

Chicago  

103.0

103.3

103.3

3-2-0

119

99

Green Bay

101.5

101.9

103.3

3-2-0

130

93

Detroit  

93.0

91.6

93.5

1-5-0

103

188

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New Orleans

113.8

112.2

111.4

5-0-0

192

93

Atlanta  

106.6

105.1

105.6

4-1-0

123

77

Carolina  

98.4

96.0

97.3

2-3-0

85

125

Tampa Bay

88.9

91.3

86.6

0-6-0

89

168

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Arizona  

100.9

103.5

103.5

3-2-0

112

92

San Francisco

100.5

100.2

101.6

3-2-0

112

98

Seattle  

96.5

98.4

98.0

2-4-0

118

109

St. Louis  

87.9

87.4

88.7

0-6-0

54

169

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New England

111.0

107.2

107.5

4-2-0

163

91

NY Jets  

99.6

101.2

100.4

3-3-0

114

104

Miami

98.8

100.9

100.4

2-3-0

112

106

Buffalo  

96.0

96.4

95.7

2-4-0

93

129

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Baltimore

109.3

104.8

103.6

3-3-0

169

130

Pittsburgh

106.2

103.3

105.1

4-2-0

140

112

Cincinnati

100.5

99.9

102.1

4-2-0

118

118

Cleveland

91.4

93.2

92.3

1-5-0

69

148

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Indianapolis

110.0

108.6

109.6

5-0-0

137

71

Houston  

101.6

99.3

100.4

3-3-0

143

137

Tennessee

93.7

93.9

89.9

0-6-0

84

198

Jacksonville

93.6

96.8

95.3

3-3-0

120

147

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Denver  

102.6

105.6

106.1

6-0-0

133

66

San Diego

101.7

100.5

101.9

2-3-0

124

136

Oakland  

91.5

91.8

92.1

2-4-0

62

139

Kansas City

91.1

94.2

93.7

1-5-0

98

144

This Week’s Games

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
   

 

 

 

 

 

HFA for Week 7 = 2.7    

 

 

 

 

Vegas Line as of 7:30PM EDT Tuesday  

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, October 25, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

San Diego KANSAS CITY

7.9

3.6

5.5

5 1/2

44   

Indianapolis ST. LOUIS

19.4

18.5

17.9

13   

45   

CINCINNATI Chicago

0.2

-0.7

1.5

1 1/2

41 1/2

Green Bay CLEVELAND

7.4

6.0

8.3

7   

41 1/2

PITTSBURGH Minnesota

2.5

0.6

0.4

4   

45   

New England     (N) Tampa Bay

22.1

15.9

20.9

15   

45   

HOUSTON San Francisco

3.8

1.8

1.5

3   

44   

New York Jets OAKLAND

5.4

6.7

5.6

6   

34 1/2

CAROLINA Buffalo

5.1

2.3

4.3

NL

NL

New Orleans MIAMI

12.3

8.3

7.9

6   

47   

Atlanta DALLAS

4.2

0.0

0.5

-4   

47 1/2

NEW YORK GIANTS Arizona

9.4

5.5

5.8

7   

46   

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, October 26, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

Philadelphia WASHINGTON

7.0

6.9

9.0

7   

37 1/2

October 13, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Six: October 18-19, 2009

NFL Week 6—Three Games Worth Watching

 

As we start the middle third of the NFL season, three week six games are worth noting.  The New Orleans Saints host the New York Giants in a battle of unbeaten teams.  With recent parity in the league, there haven’t been many recent matchups of unbeaten teams in week six.  In 2007, New England, on its way to a 16-0 regular season record, disposed of undefeated Dallas in week six.  Then, a few weeks later, the Patriots met an undefeated Indianapolis team and won.  

 

The Baltimore Ravens are facing a 3-3 record after beginning 3-0 if they cannot handle Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, and company at the Metrodome.  If the Vikings win, it will be their first 6-0 record since 1998, when they finished 15-1.

 

The Chicago Bears, coming off a bye week play at Atlanta.  The Falcons are fresh off a slaughter of the San Francisco 49ers.  The winner of this battle of 3-1 teams will have a leg up in the standings for a possible wildcard spot if neither can overtake their undefeated intra-divisional rivals.

 

There are potentially five really crappy ballgames this week.  Any and all five could see the favorite winning by three to five touchdowns.  Pittsburgh hosts a Cleveland team that can do little more than pass the ball to the line of scrimmage.  Jacksonville hosts St. Louis; if the Rams lose big in this one, they may be worse than last year’s Lions.  Oakland hosts Philadelphia.  The Raiders lost by 37 to the Giants last week and enjoy virtually no home field advantage any more.  If the Eagles come ready for slaughter, they could hang half a hundred on the Raiders this week.  The hapless Bills must face an angry Jets team at The Meadowlands.  If Buffalo couldn’t beat Cleveland when Derek Anderson completed just two of 17 passes, how will they stop the Jets’ potent and balanced offense?  New England is looking to take out their frustrations on somebody after letting one slip away in the cold Rocky Mountain air at Denver.  Lucky for the Patriots, they get an 0-5 Tennessee team that has no pass defense and appears to be ready to mail it in the rest of the season.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

NY Giants

109.4

107.6

108.7

5-0-0

151

71

Philadelphia 

105.8

105.8

107.0

3-1-0

127

86

Dallas

99.7

102.5

100.9

3-2-0

122

98

Washington

94.4

95.4

94.2

2-3-0

73

82

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Minnesota

105.8

105.4

106.9

5-0-0

156

90

Chicago

103.5

103.7

104.3

3-1-0

105

78

Green Bay

99.9

100.5

101.2

2-2-0

104

93

Detroit

94.6

93.0

95.0

1-4-0

103

162

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New Orleans

112.0

110.5

110.4

4-0-0

144

66

Atlanta

106.1

104.1

104.9

3-1-0

102

63

Carolina  

98.3

96.3

95.2

1-3-0

57

104

Tampa Bay

89.0

92.4

89.6

0-5-0

68

140

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Francisco

100.5

99.9

101.1

3-2-0

112

98

Seattle

99.2

100.7

99.8

2-3-0

115

82

Arizona

98.2

100.5

100.2

2-2-0

85

89

St. Louis

86.8

86.6

85.6

0-5-0

34

146

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New England

107.7

104.9

105.4

3-2-0

104

91

NY Jets

101.6

102.8

103.7

3-2-0

101

88

Miami

98.8

100.9

100.4

2-3-0

112

106

Buffalo

94.0

94.6

93.4

1-4-0

77

116

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Baltimore

109.9

104.5

105.8

3-2-0

138

97

Pittsburgh

106.4

103.9

103.7

3-2-0

113

98

Cincinnati

102.1

101.5

104.8

4-1-0

101

90

Cleveland

91.2

93.2

92.5

1-4-0

55

121

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Indianapolis

110.0

108.6

109.6

5-0-0

137

71

Houston

100.0

97.2

98.1

2-3-0

115

120

Tennessee

97.0

96.5

93.8

0-5-0

84

139

Jacksonville

94.7

98.2

97.9

2-3-0

97

127

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Diego

103.6

101.5

102.7

2-2-0

101

102

Denver

100.7

104.0

105.6

5-0-0

99

43

Kansas City

90.0

93.1

90.5

0-5-0

84

138

Oakland

88.7

89.7

87.1

1-4-0

49

130

 

This Week’s Games

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
   

 

 

 

 

 

HFA for Week 6 = 2.7    

 

 

 

 

Vegas Line as of 1:30PM Tuesday  

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, October 18, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

WASHINGTON Kansas City

7.1

5.0

6.4

6 1/2

37   

CINCINNATI Houston

4.8

7.0

9.4

5 1/2

45 1/2

PITTSBURGH Cleveland

17.9

13.4

13.9

14   

38   

Baltimore MINNESOTA

1.4

-3.6

-3.8

2 1/2

43 1/2

JACKSONVILLE St. Louis

10.6

14.3

15.0

9 1/2

42   

NEW ORLEANS New York Giants

5.3

5.6

4.4

3   

48   

Carolina TAMPA BAY

6.6

1.2

2.9

3 1/2

40   

GREEN BAY Detroit

8.0

10.2

8.9

13 1/2

48 1/2

Philadelphia OAKLAND

14.4

13.4

17.2

14   

40 1/2

SEATTLE Arizona

3.7

2.9

2.3

2 1/2

47   

NEW YORK JETS Buffalo

10.3

10.9

13.0

10   

38   

NEW ENGLAND Tennessee

13.4

11.1

14.3

9   

43 1/2

ATLANTA Chicago

5.3

3.1

3.3

3   

46   

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, October 19, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

SAN DIEGO Denver

5.6

0.2

-0.2

4   

44   

October 6, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Five: October 11-12, 2009

Week five in the NFL finds three excellent games on the schedule.  Who would have thought that the Baltimore-Cincinnati game would be a contest with first place on the line?  Atlanta visits San Francisco in a battle where the winner will be in great shape for qualifying for the playoffs, even this early in the season.  Denver hosts New England in a game that will definitely affect the playoff race.  If the Broncos sit at 5-0 on Monday morning, you can go ahead and make playoff plans if you live in Denver.  The Broncos have five very winnable games left on the schedule, and 10-6 will win the AFC West.

 

The PiRate Picks against the spread (find them at www.piratings.webs.com), finished 8-4 last week, making our record for the year 25-15-1.  In the last three weeks, our winning percentage has been a sizzling 72% against the spread (18-7-0).

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

NY Giants

108.1

106.7

107.3

4-0-0

107

64

Philadelphia 

105.8

105.4

105.7

2-1-0

94

72

Dallas   

100.3

102.8

101.1

2-2-0

96

78

Washington

94.2

95.4

96.9

2-2-0

56

62

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Minnesota

105.0

105.2

105.8

4-0-0

118

80

Chicago  

103.5

103.5

103.7

3-1-0

105

78

Green Bay

99.9

101.1

101.3

2-2-0

104

93

Detroit  

93.8

92.0

92.8

1-3-0

83

134

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New Orleans

112.0

112.5

109.3

4-0-0

144

66

Atlanta  

103.6

99.1

103.1

2-1-0

57

53

Carolina  

98.5

94.7

97.3

0-3-0

37

87

Tampa Bay

89.0

91.3

90.5

0-4-0

54

107

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Francisco

103.0

103.5

104.8

3-1-0

102

53

Arizona  

97.7

100.2

99.4

1-2-0

57

68

Seattle  

95.7

97.3

97.9

1-3-0

74

82

St. Louis  

87.6

87.0

84.0

0-4-0

24

108

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New England

108.3

104.4

106.6

3-1-0

87

71

NY Jets  

102.6

104.2

105.1

3-1-0

74

57

Miami  

97.8

99.9

99.7

1-3-0

81

79

Buffalo  

96.2

95.9

96.2

1-3-0

74

110

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Baltimore

110.1

106.6

107.1

3-1-0

124

80

Pittsburgh

107.2

104.5

105.2

2-2-0

85

78

Cincinnati

100.3

100.0

101.7

3-1-0

84

76

Cleveland

89.8

91.5

89.2

0-4-0

49

118

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Indianapolis

107.5

109.5

107.8

4-0-0

106

62

Houston  

100.5

97.8

100.1

2-2-0

94

92

Tennessee

99.5

97.7

96.6

0-4-0

75

108

Jacksonville

98.2

101.5

100.4

2-2-0

97

86

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Diego

103.6

100.7

101.9

2-2-0

101

102

Denver  

100.1

105.4

104.3

4-0-0

79

26

Oakland  

90.8

90.5

90.1

1-3-0

42

86

Kansas City

89.4

92.5

87.2

0-4-0

64

112

 

Vegas Lines Shown as of 7PM ET Tuesday

This Week’s Games

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
   

 

 

 

 

 

HFA for Week 5 = 2.9  

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, October 11, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

Minnesota ST. LOUIS

14.5

15.3

18.9

10   

40   

Dallas KANSAS CITY

8.0

7.4

11.0

8 1/2

42 ½

CAROLINA Washington

7.2

2.2

3.3

3 1/2

37    

PHILADELPHIA Tampa Bay

19.7

17.0

18.1

14   

43 ½

N Y GIANTS Oakland

20.2

19.1

20.1

16   

39 ½

BUFFALO Cleveland

9.3

7.3

9.9

6   

40 ½

BALTIMORE Cincinnati

12.7

9.5

8.3

8 1/2

42   

Pittsburgh DETROIT

16.3

15.4

15.3

10 1/2

44   

SAN FRANCISCO Atlanta

2.3

7.3

4.6

2 1/2

40 1/2

New England DENVER

5.3

-3.9

-0.6

3   

41   

ARIZONA Houston

0.1

5.3

2.2

5 1/2

48   

SEATTLE Jacksonville

0.4

-0.7

0.4

NL

NL

Indianapolis TENNESSEE

5.1

8.9

8.3

3 1/2

45 1/2

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, October 12, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

N y Jets MIAMI

1.9

1.4

2.5

1 1/2

36   

September 29, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Four: October 4-5, 2009

NFL Playoff Picture Coming More Into Focus After Just Three Weeks

 

The PiRate Picks finished 6-1 Last Week—Go to www.piratings.webs.com to sign up for this week’s picks (deadline: 7PM Eastern Time Wednesdays)

 

Usually after three weeks, there are about three 3-0 teams and three 0-3 teams left in the NFL.  There are still seven undefeated teams and seven winless teams.  It looks like some of the playoff races are already on their way to being decided.

 

In the NFC, Tampa Bay and Carolina have already played themselves out of playoff contention.  St. Louis, Washington, and Detroit never had a chance, and Arizona and Seattle don’t appear to have it this year.  Six of the remaining nine teams will play in the postseason.  Count the Giants, Eagles, Saints, 49ers, and Vikings as clear-cut favorites for five of those spots.  The race for the final spot is between Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, and Dallas.

 

In the AFC, count out Kansas City, Oakland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Houston, Cleveland, Miami, and Buffalo.  Indianapolis just about has the South title secured.  It’s doubtful that any other AFC South team will qualify as a wildcard.  The Patriots and Jets should both qualify from the East, and Baltimore should qualify out of the North.  Pittsburgh has lost both games since the injury of Troy Polamalu, and both losses came from a breakdown in the secondary.  The Steelers could finish at 9-7 and be on the outside looking in.  Cincinnati is one freak play away from being 3-0, and the Bengals could take advantage of a softer schedule to sneak through with a 9-7 record.  9-7 may not qualify, because in the West Division, Denver and San Diego should both go 4-0 against their two weak sisters and both win double digit games.

 

Here’s a look at this week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings, as well as the schedule of games with the spreads.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

NY Giants

107.8

106.5

106.2

3-0-0

80

48

Philadelphia

105.8

105.7

105.1

2-1-0

94

72

Dallas

100.6

103.4

101.8

2-1-0

86

61

Washington

94.7

96.5

94.7

1-2-0

40

49

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Minnesota

104.8

104.4

104.6

3-0-0

88

57

Chicago

103.2

102.1

102.6

2-1-0

57

54

Green Bay

100.1

100.9

101.8

2-1-0

81

63

Detroit

94.1

93.3

95.2

1-2-0

59

86

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New Orleans

111.5

109.8

108.5

3-0-0

120

56

Atlanta

103.6

100.2

102.6

2-1-0

57

53

Carolina  

98.5

95.7

96.2

0-3-0

37

87

Tampa Bay

88.5

92.6

91.5

0-3-0

41

91

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Francisco

102.1

102.4

103.1

2-1-0

67

53

Arizona

97.7

100.1

99.9

1-2-0

57

68

Seattle

96.8

97.8

98.4

1-2-0

57

48

St. Louis

88.5

88.8

88.9

0-3-0

24

73

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New England

107.7

104.3

104.9

2-1-0

60

50

NY Jets

103.1

104.2

104.5

3-0-0

64

33

Buffalo

97.6

98.2

99.8

1-2-0

64

72

Miami

96.4

96.9

97.2

0-3-0

43

69

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Baltimore

110.7

107.2

107.0

3-0-0

103

53

Pittsburgh

106.1

103.5

103.2

1-2-0

47

50

Cincinnati

100.8

100.3

101.2

2-1-0

61

56

Cleveland

89.3

91.2

88.4

0-3-0

29

95

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Indianapolis

106.4

106.1

106.5

3-0-0

72

45

Tennessee

102.3

100.6

99.5

0-3-0

58

71

Houston

99.3

96.5

98.3

1-2-0

65

86

Jacksonville

95.4

98.2

98.5

1-2-0

60

69

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Diego

104.7

103.6

103.8

2-1-0

73

64

Denver

99.8

102.8

102.7

3-0-0

62

16

Oakland

92.0

94.0

92.8

1-2-0

36

57

Kansas City

89.7

92.5

90.8

0-3-0

48

85

 

This Week’s Games

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
   

 

 

 

 

 

HFA for Week 4 = 2.8  

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, October 4, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

HOUSTON Oakland

10.1

5.3

8.3

9 1/2

42   

Tennessee JACKSONVILLE

4.1

-0.4

-1.8

3   

41 1/2

Baltimore NEW ENGLAND

0.2

0.1

-0.5

2   

44 1/2

Cincinnati CLEVELAND

8.7

6.3

10.0

5 1/2

38 1/2

New York Giants KANSAS CITY

15.3

11.2

12.6

9   

42 1/2

CHICAGO Detroit

11.9

11.6

10.2

10   

38 1/2

WASHINGTON Tampa Bay

9.0

7.3

6.0

7   

37   

INDIANAPOLIS Seattle

12.4

11.1

10.9

NL

NL

NEW ORLEANS New York Jets

11.2

8.4

6.8

6 1/2

45 1/2

MIAMI Buffalo

1.6

1.5

0.2

-2   

36 1/2

SAN FRANCISCO St. Louis

16.4

16.4

17.0

10   

37 1/2

DENVER Dallas

2.0

2.2

3.7

3   

43   

PITTSBURGH San Diego

5.2

2.7

2.2

6 1/2

43   

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, October 5, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

MINNESOTA Green Bay

7.5

6.3

6.6

3 1/2

46   

September 23, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Three–September 27-28, 2009

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

 

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

NY Giants

105.6

104.5

106.1

2-0-0

56

48

Philadelphia

105.3

104.6

104.3

1-1-0

60

58

Dallas

98.5

102.6

101.3

1-1-0

65

54

Washington

96.3

97.8

97.5

1-1-0

26

30

               
NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Minnesota

104.9

104.0

105.3

2-0-0

61

33

Chicago

102.7

100.7

102.4

1-1-0

32

35

Green Bay

98.8

99.4

100.1

1-1-0

45

46

Detroit

92.8

91.9

90.8

0-2-0

40

72

               
NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New Orleans

108.8

108.0

108.0

2-0-0

93

49

Atlanta

105.1

102.2

103.1

2-0-0

47

27

Carolina  

100.2

96.8

96.9

0-2-0

30

66

Tampa Bay

91.4

95.1

93.6

0-2-0

41

67

               
NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Francisco

101.9

101.6

103.0

2-0-0

43

26

Arizona

101.0

102.0

102.3

1-1-0

47

37

Seattle

97.3

99.5

99.8

1-1-0

38

23

St. Louis

90.6

91.5

90.9

0-2-0

7

37

               
AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New England

105.9

103.0

104.6

1-1-0

34

40

NY Jets

101.8

103.7

104.6

2-0-0

40

16

Buffalo

99.9

100.3

100.5

1-1-0

57

45

Miami

96.5

97.4

98.7

0-2-0

30

46

               
AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Baltimore

107.7

106.3

106.9

2-0-0

69

50

Pittsburgh

106.7

104.3

105.1

1-1-0

27

27

Cincinnati

99.9

98.3

98.3

1-1-0

38

36

Cleveland

91.9

92.4

87.7

0-2-0

26

61

               
AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Tennessee

103.9

100.5

100.7

0-2-0

41

47

Indianapolis

102.9

103.2

104.7

2-0-0

41

35

Houston

101.8

97.8

100.4

1-1-0

41

55

Jacksonville

92.6

97.5

94.9

0-2-0

29

45

               
AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Diego

104.6

102.9

102.6

1-1-0

50

51

Denver

97.2

100.4

98.2

2-0-0

39

13

Oakland

95.1

95.9

95.1

1-1-0

33

34

Kansas City

90.0

94.3

91.9

0-2-0

34

51

 

This Week’s Games

 
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
   

 

 

 

 

 

HFA for Week 3 = 2.8  

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, September 27, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

NEW YORK JETS Tennessee

0.7

6.0

6.7

3   

37   

HOUSTON Jacksonville

12.0

3.1

8.3

3 1/2

46 1/2

PHILADELPHIA Kansas City

18.1

13.1

15.2

NL

NL

BALTIMORE Cleveland

18.6

16.7

22.0

13   

38 1/2

New York Giants TAMPA BAY

11.4

6.6

9.7

6 1/2

44   

Washington DETROIT

0.7

3.1

3.9

6 1/2

38 1/2

Green Bay ST. LOUIS

5.4

5.1

6.4

6 1/2

41   

MINNESOTA San Francisco

5.8

5.2

5.1

6 1/2

40   

NEW ENGLAND Atlanta

3.6

3.6

4.3

4   

44 1/2

Chicago SEATTLE

2.6

-1.6

-0.2

2   

37   

New Orleans BUFFALO

6.1

4.9

4.7

6   

51 1/2

SAN DIEGO Miami

10.9

8.3

6.7

6   

44   

Pittsburgh CINCINNATI

4.0

3.2

4.0

4   

37   

OAKLAND Denver

0.7

-1.7

-0.3

-1 1/2

36   

ARIZONA Indianapolis

0.9

1.6

0.4

2 1/2

47 1/2

   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, September 28, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

DALLAS Carolina

1.1

8.6

7.2

9   

47   

               

 

For the PiRate Picks of the week, please go to: www.piratings.webs.com

December 26, 2008

PiRate Ratings Week 17 NFL Previews: December 28, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 17

Still Much To Be Decided

 

It seems like the end of the NFL season has come quickly this year.  Maybe it seems that way because last season coincided with the Presidential election that seemed to last forever.

 

Unfortunately, the end of this season coincides with too many holiday plans, and this preview will be abbreviated.  I will list all the playoff possibilities in this article in addition to the standings, ratings, and games.  I won’t list an in-depth game by game preview or make picks due to those time limitations.

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

12

3

0

408

274

108.60

107.65

107.11

2

Dallas

9

6

0

356

321

102.49

103.67

103.29

2

Philadelphia

8

6

1

372

283

106.53

105.48

103.26

2

Washington

8

7

0

241

269

98.55

99.31

99.83

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Minnesota

9

6

0

359

314

104.06

103.81

103.64

2

Chicago

9

6

0

351

319

102.96

101.42

102.34

2

Green Bay

5

10

0

388

359

103.77

101.48

98.91

2

Detroit

0

15

0

247

486

86.86

88.16

86.27

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Carolina

11

4

0

381

298

106.14

105.11

106.11

2

Atlanta

10

5

0

360

298

105.19

104.46

105.79

2

Tampa Bay

9

6

0

337

292

104.06

102.01

102.68

2

New Orleans

8

7

0

432

360

104.61

104.52

102.09

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Arizona

8

7

0

393

405

97.60

97.33

99.25

3

San Francisco

6

9

0

312

357

94.23

95.55

96.42

3

Seattle

4

11

0

273

358

92.89

94.36

94.11

3

St. Louis

2

13

0

205

434

84.00

86.47

86.56

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Miami

10

5

0

321

300

98.73

99.42

102.29

2

New England

10

5

0

397

309

103.21

104.76

105.46

2

New York

9

6

0

388

332

100.62

99.48

100.88

2

Buffalo

7

8

0

336

329

96.92

96.82

98.41

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Pittsburgh

11

4

0

316

223

108.32

107.71

106.47

2

Baltimore

10

5

0

358

237

108.82

107.90

106.01

3

Cleveland

4

11

0

232

319

95.34

94.57

92.24

2

Cincinnati

3

11

1

188

358

92.20

93.93

93.29

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Tennessee

13

2

0

375

211

110.38

109.14

108.97

2

Indianapolis

11

4

0

354

298

104.55

104.95

105.76

2

Houston

7

8

0

335

370

98.63

98.85

99.16

3

Jacksonville

5

10

0

295

340

97.86

97.78

97.59

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Denver

8

7

0

349

396

95.68

96.24

98.05

2

San Diego

7

8

0

387

326

103.66

103.18

102.23

2

Oakland

4

11

0

232

364

91.06

92.37

93.35

2

Kansas City

2

13

0

285

424

91.49

92.05

92.17

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 The Playoffs Scenarios

NFC Already in Playoffs

New York Giants: Clinched #1 Seed & home field advantage

Carolina: Clinched a playoff spot

Atlanta: Clinched a playoff spot

Arizona: Clinched West Division and will play on first weekend of the playoffs

 

NFC Scenarios

NFC EAST

DALLAS

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a Chicago loss or tie and a Tampa Bay loss

C. A tie plus a Minnesota loss or tie and a Tampa Bay loss

D. A tie plus a Chicago loss and a Tampa Bay tie

E. A tie plus a Minnesota loss and a Tampa Bay tie

 

PHILADELPHIA

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus losses by Tampa Bay and Minnesota

B. A win plus losses by Tampa Bay and Chicago

 

NFC NORTH

MINNESOTA

Clinches Division with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus Chicago loss or tie

C. A Chicago loss

 

CHICAGO

Clinches Division with:

A. A win plus a Minnesota loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Minnesota loss

 

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Minnesota win and losses or ties by both Dallas and Tampa Bay

B. A tie plus losses by both Dallas and Tampa Bay

 

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA has already clinched a playoff spot

Clinches Division and First Round Bye with:

A. A win plus a Carolina loss

 

CAROLINA has already clinched a playoff spot

Clinches Division and First Round Bye with:

A. A win or tie

B. An Atlanta loss or tie

 

TAMPA BAY

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Dallas loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Dallas loss and Minnesota loss or tie

C. A tie plus a Dallas loss and a Chicago loss or tie

D. A tie plus a Dallas tie and a Minnesota tie and a Chicago win or tie

E. A tie plus a Dallas tie and a Chicago tie and a Minnesota win or tie

 

AFC Already in Playoffs

Tennessee: Clinched #1 seed & home field advantage

Pittsburgh: Clinched division & first round bye

 

AFC Scenarios

AFC EAST

The AFC East Division Winner will play on the first weekend of the playoffs

 

MIAMI

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a New England loss or tie

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A tie plus a Baltimore loss

 

NEW ENGLAND

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win plus a Miami loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Miami loss

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Baltimore loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Baltimore loss

 

NEW YORK JETS

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win plus a New England loss

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Baltimore loss

 

AFC NORTH

(Pittsburgh has already won the division and secured a first-round bye as the #2 seed)

 

BALTIMORE

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a Miami loss or tie

C. A tie plus a New England loss or tie

D. A New England loss

 

AFC SOUTH

Tennessee has clinched division and the #1 seed, while Indianapolis has clinched a Wildcard

 

AFC WEST

DENVER plays At SAN DIEGO.  The winner of this game wins the Division.  It the game ends in a tie, then Denver wins the Division.  The Division winner will play on the first weekend of the playoffs.

 

If The Season Ended Today

NFC Seedings

1. New York Giants

2. Carolina

3. Minnesota

4. Arizona

5. Atlanta

6. Dallas

 

Dallas would play at Minnesota and Atlanta would play at Arizona.  The higher remaining seed would then play at Carolina and the weaker remaining seed would play at the New York Giants

 

AFC Seedings

1. Tennessee

2. Pittsburgh

3. Miami

4. Denver

5. Indianapolis

6. Baltimore

 

Baltimore would play at Miami and Indianapolis would play at Denver.  The higher remaining seed would then play at Pittsburgh and the weaker remaining seed would play at Tennessee

 

Here Is My Best Guess As To How The Season Will End

 

In the NFC, Philadelphia will take advantage of home field advantage and a revenge factor and defeat Dallas.

 

Atlanta will dismiss St. Louis with ease.

 

Carolina will stumble at New Orleans as Drew Brees finishes off one of the best passing seasons ever.

 

Tampa Bay handles Oakland at home but not by much.

 

Minnesota struggles but hangs up to beat the New York Giants after the Giants pull their starters in the second half.

 

Chicago falls at Houston as the Texans finish 8-8.

 

That would leave Atlanta and Minnesota as division champions and Tampa Bay as the final Wildcard.  Dallas, Philadelphia, and Chicago would be eliminated.

 

In the AFC, Miami will take advantage of Brett Favre’s shoulder problems and take out the Jets at the Meadowlands.

 

New England will go to Buffalo and put up some big numbers in a win, looking like the true dark horse Super Bowl contender (but only until the Baltimore game ends).

 

Baltimore will methodically defeat Jacksonville in a rough game and ruin the weekend for fans in New England.

 

San Diego will take some revenge against Denver and claim the West Division title.

 

That would leave Miami and San Diego as division champions and Baltimore as the final Wildcard team.

 

Note: Weather forecasts and odds are those as of Friday, December 26, 2008, 12 Noon EST

 

You will now see multiple numbers given in the Vegas line and Ov/Un.  I am listing the range given by the different books in Vegas and offshore as of 12 Noon EST Friday, so you can use the one that best meets your needs.  Remember though, if you use parlays and teasers, you must use the same source.  You cannot play a parlay using the odds from different books.  There are no picks this week due to lack of time to study the games..

 

I leave it to you to find out the book in question regarding the spreads.  Generally, some of the big ones in Vegas are: Hilton, Caesar’s-Harrah’s, MGM Mirage, Stations, Leroy’s, Wynn, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, and The Palms.  Some of the large offshore books include: BetUs, Bodog, Sportsbook, BetJamaica, and Pinnacle.

 

Average Simulation Scores for each game are now rounded to nearest whole number.

 

Note: The ratings and the simulations do not take into account the fact that some teams will not play their regulars much if at all this week.

 

NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings-Week 17

 

Kansas City (2-13-0) at Cincinnati (3-11-1)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, strong wind, temperature in the mid 40’s

 

PiRate:                Cincinnati by 3               

Mean:                  Cincinnati by 4

Bias:                    Cincinnati by 3

 

Vegas:               Cincinnati by 2.5 to 3

Ov/Un:               37.5 to 38.5

 

100 Sims:           Cincinnati 78  Kansas City 22

Avg Sim Score:  Cincinnati 29  Kansas City 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Cincinnati 40  Kansas City 21

Outlier 1b Sim:  Kansas City 24  Cincinnati 14

 

 

St. Louis (2-13-0) at Atlanta (10-5-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Atlanta by 23

Mean:                  Atlanta by 20

Bias:                    Atlanta by 21

 

Vegas:               14 to 15.5  

Ov/Un:               44 to 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Atlanta 98  St. Louis 2

Avg Sim Score:  Atlanta 33  St. Louis 11

Outlier 1a Sim:  Atlanta 52  St. Louis 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  St. Louis 24  Atlanta 21

 

 

New England (10-5-0) at Buffalo (7-8-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain Showers, Very Strong Wind, Unseasonably mild temperature near 50

 

PiRate:                New England by 8

Mean:                  New England by 10

Bias:                    New England by 9

 

Vegas:               6 to 7   

Ov/Un:               40 to 41

 

100 Sims:           New England 73  Buffalo 27

Avg Sim Score:  New England 34  Buffalo 28

Outlier 1a Sim:  New England 45  Buffalo 23

Outlier 1b Sim:  Buffalo 31  New England 20

 

 

Detroit (0-15-0) at Green Bay (5-10-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Light snow ending after game starts, moderate wind, temperature in low 20’s

 

PiRate:                Green Bay by 19

Mean:                  Green Bay by 15

Bias:                    Green Bay by 15

 

Vegas:               Green Bay by 10 to 11.5      

Ov/Un:               42.5 to 43

 

100 Sims:           Green Bay 64  Detroit 35  1 Tie

Avg Sim Score:  Green Bay 33  Detroit 29

Outlier 1a Sim:  Green Bay 24  Detroit 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  Detroit 38  Green Bay 30

 

 

Tennessee (13-2-0) at Indianapolis (11-4-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome should be closed

 

PiRate:                Tennessee by 4

Mean:                  Tennessee by 2

Bias:                    Tennessee by 1

 

Vegas:                Tennessee by 3

Ov/Un:               38 to 38.5

 

100 Sims:           Indianapolis 58  Tennessee 42

Avg Sim Score:  Indianapolis 25  Tennessee 23

Outlier 1a Sim:  Indianapolis 28  Tennessee 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  Tennessee 24  Indianapolis 10

 

 

Chicago (9-6-0) at Houston (7-8-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, light wind, temperature around 60

 

PiRate:                Chicago by 1

Mean:                  Tossup

Bias:                    Tossup

 

Vegas:               Houston by 2.5 to 3  

Ov/Un:               46 to 46.5

 

100 Sims:           Houston 51  Chicago 49

Avg Sim Score:  Houston 27  Chicago 27

Outlier 1a Sim:  Houston 37  Chicago 20

Outlier 1b Sim:  Chicago 32  Houston 17

 

 

Oakland (4-11-0) at Tampa Bay (9-6-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature near 80

 

PiRate:                Tampa Bay by 15

Mean:                  Tampa Bay by 12

Bias:                    Tampa Bay by 11

 

Vegas:               Tampa Bay by 12.5 to 14

Ov/Un:               39 to 39.5

 

100 Sims:           Tampa Bay 89  Oakland 11

Avg Sim Score:  Tampa Bay 26  Oakland 12

Outlier 1a Sim:  Tampa Bay 38  Oakland 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Oakland 27  Tampa Bay 21

 

 

Cleveland (4-11-0) at Pittsburgh (11-4-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain showers, strong wind, temperature in low to mid 50’s

 

PiRate:                Pittsburgh by 15

Mean:                 Pittsburgh by 15

Bias:                    Pittsburgh by 16

 

Vegas:                Pittsburgh by 10.5 to 11.5

Ov/Un:               31.5 to 33

 

100 Sims:           Pittsburgh 97  Cleveland 3

Avg Sim Score:  Pittsburgh 29  Cleveland 11

Outlier 1a Sim:  Pittsburgh 49  Cleveland 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cleveland 13  Pittsburgh 10 (2 other 3-point wins)

 

 

New York Giants (12-3-0) at Minnesota (9-6-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Giants by 3

Mean:                 Giants by 2

Bias:                    Giants by 1

 

Vegas:                Minnesota by 7 to 7.5

Ov/Un:               42

 

100 Sims:           Giants 54  Minnesota 46

Avg Sim Score:  Giants 23  Minnesota 20

Outlier 1a Sim:  Giants 31  Minnesota 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Minnesota 27  Giants 17

 

 

Carolina (11-4-0) at New Orleans (8-7-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Tossup

Mean:                  New Orleans by 1

Bias:                    Carolina by2

 

Vegas:               Carolina by 2.5 to 3

Ov/Un:               51.5 to 52.5

 

100 Sims:           New Orleans 55  Carolina 45

Avg Sim Score:  New Orleans 33  Carolina 32

Outlier 1a Sim:  New Orleans 44  Carolina 27

Outlier 1b Sim:  Carolina 35  New Orleans 20

 

 

Jacksonville (5-10-0) at Baltimore (10-5-0)

Time:           4:15PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping from around 60 to the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:                Baltimore by 14

Mean:                 Baltimore by 13

Bias:                   Baltimore by 11

 

Vegas:               Baltimore by 12 to 13.5

Ov/Un:               36 to 36.5

 

100 Sims:           Baltimore 83  Jacksonville 16  1 Tie

Avg Sim Score:  Baltimore 25  Jacksonville 13

Outlier 1a Sim:  Baltimore 24  Jacksonville 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jacksonville 20  Baltimore 14

 

 

Dallas (9-6-0) at Philadelphia (8-6-1)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Rain showers, moderate wind, temperature falling through the 50’s

 

PiRate:                Philadelphia by 6

Mean:                 Philadelphia by 4

Bias:                   Philadelphia by 2

 

Vegas:                Philadelphia by 0 to 2

Ov/Un:               42.5 to 43

 

100 Sims:           Philadelphia 61  Dallas 39

Avg Sim Score:  Philadelphia 27  Dallas 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Philadelphia 41  Dallas 24

Outlier 1b Sim:  Dallas 34  Philadelphia 24

 

 

Miami (10-5-0) at New York Jets (9-6-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping from the mid 50’s to mid 40’s

 

PiRate:                Jets by 4

Mean:                 Jets by 2

Bias:                   Jets by 1

 

Vegas:                Jets by 2 to 3   

Ov/Un:               41.5 to 42.5

 

100 Sims:           Miami 50  Jets 50

Avg Sim Score:  Miami 25  Jets 25

Outlier 1a Sim:  Miami 27  Jets 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jets 20  Miami 12

 

 

Seattle (4-11-0) at Arizona (8-7-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in low 60’s

 

PiRate:                Arizona by 8

Mean:                  Arizona by 6

Bias:                    Arizona by 8

 

Vegas:               Arizona by 6 to 6.5

Ov/Un:               45 to 46

 

100 Sims:           Arizona 83  Seattle 17

Avg Sim Score:  Arizona 33  Seattle 23

Outlier 1a Sim:  Arizona 38  Seattle 16

Outlier 1b Sim:  Seattle 24  Arizona 20

 

 

Washington (8-7-0) at San Francisco (6-9-0)

Time:           4:15PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Showers possible, light wind, temperature in the mid 50’s

                    

PiRate:                Washington by 1

Mean:                  Washington by 1

Bias:                    Tossup

 

Vegas:               San Francisco by 3

Ov/Un:               37 to 37.5

 

100 Sims:           San Francisco 56  Washington 44

Avg Sim Score:  San Francisco 23  Washington 21

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Francisco 27  Washington 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Washington 21  San Francisco 13

 

 

Denver (8-7-0) at San Diego (7-8-0)

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature falling from mid to low 60’s

 

PiRate:                San Diego by 10

Mean:                  San Diego by   9

Bias:                    San Diego by   6

 

Vegas:                San Diego by 7.5 to 9.5

Ov/Un:               50 to 51

 

100 Sims:           San Diego 59  Denver 41

Avg Sim Score:  San Diego 34  Denver 30

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Diego 51  Denver 27

Outlier 1b Sim:  Denver 45  San Diego 31

December 18, 2008

PiRate Ratings Week 16 NFL Previews: December 18-22, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 16

A Preview Of The Conference Championship Games?

 

What a coincidence!  The Steelers go to Nashville, and the Panthers go to the Meadowlands in what could very well be a preview of the AFC and NFC Championship games.  Personally, I don’t think we will see either of these games replayed in the same venues in four weeks.

 

There are several other key games this week.  Indianapolis can clinch the number five playoff spot in the AFC if they defeat Jacksonville.  Baltimore and Dallas hook up in an important Saturday night game.  The loser of this game might need help in week 17. 

 

Miami faces a possible trap game at Kansas City, where the temperature is going to be well below freezing. 

 

Philadelphia and Washington play an eliminator game, where the loser can hang it up for the season. 

 

Arizona has a tough date at New England, where the Patriots are almost in a must-win situation. 

 

Atlanta and Minnesota play in the Fox second game, and the winner will be in great shape, while the loser is in trouble (especially if Chicago wins Monday night). 

 

The Jets must travel to the West Coast for the fourth time this season.  They are 0-3 so far. 

 

Denver can secure the AFC West with a win over swooning Buffalo or a San Diego loss at Tampa Bay.  The Bucs need to win against the Chargers. 

 

On Monday night, the Bears may be playing for a chance to knot the NFC North, or they could already be eliminated depending on what happens in Minneapolis.

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

11

3

0

374

246

108.62

107.01

106.50

2

Dallas

9

5

0

332

288

102.95

103.96

105.36

2

Philadelphia

8

5

1

369

273

107.60

106.03

106.70

2

Washington

7

7

0

231

266

97.77

98.22

98.97

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Minnesota

9

5

0

342

290

105.12

105.24

106.65

2

Chicago

8

6

0

331

302

103.12

101.77

101.95

2

Green Bay

5

9

0

371

339

104.35

101.02

97.85

2

Detroit

0

14

0

240

444

88.47

89.81

88.23

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Carolina

11

3

0

353

264

106.47

105.55

107.58

2

Tampa Bay

9

5

0

313

251

105.19

103.84

105.78

2

Atlanta

9

5

0

336

281

104.71

103.45

103.21

2

New Orleans

7

7

0

390

353

103.29

102.62

100.96

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Arizona

8

6

0

386

358

100.03

99.65

100.31

3

San Francisco

5

9

0

295

341

94.85

96.51

96.25

3

Seattle

3

11

0

260

355

91.65

93.14

92.53

3

St. Louis

2

12

0

189

417

83.33

87.70

84.98

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

9

5

0

385

319

101.06

100.30

102.45

2

New England

9

5

0

350

302

100.33

101.54

102.55

2

Miami

9

5

0

283

269

98.18

99.21

101.65

2

Buffalo

6

8

0

306

306

96.18

95.64

95.74

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Pittsburgh

11

3

0

302

192

109.24

108.44

108.71

2

Baltimore

9

5

0

325

213

108.79

107.24

107.78

3

Cleveland

4

10

0

232

305

96.76

96.59

94.25

2

Cincinnati

2

11

1

174

358

91.41

92.93

91.84

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Tennessee

12

2

0

344

197

109.87

107.77

108.10

2

Indianapolis

10

4

0

323

274

104.76

104.55

106.44

2

Houston

7

7

0

319

343

100.27

101.56

101.34

3

Jacksonville

5

9

0

271

309

98.34

97.85

96.61

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Denver

8

6

0

326

366

95.50

97.62

99.00

2

San Diego

6

8

0

346

302

101.75

100.18

99.56

2

Oakland

3

11

0

205

348

89.46

90.76

89.22

2

Kansas City

2

12

0

254

386

90.65

92.31

90.97

2

 

If The Playoffs Started Today

 

NFC 1st Round

#6 Tampa Bay at #3 Minnesota

#5 Dallas at #4 Arizona

 

#1 New York Giants would host lower surviving seed

#2 Carolina would host higher surviving seed

 

Still Alive

Atlanta 9-5-0, Philadelphia 8-5-1, Chicago 8-6-0, Washington 7-7-0

 

AFC 1st Round

#6 Baltimore at #3 New York Jets

#5 Indianapolis at #4 Denver

 

#1 Tennessee would host lower surviving seed

#2 Pittsburgh would host higher surviving seed

 

Still Alive

Miami 9-5-0 leads New England 9-5-0

San Diego would beat out Denver if both finished 8-8-0

 

Note: due to the Thursday game, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday 12 Noon EST

 

You will now see multiple numbers given in the Vegas line and Ov/Un.  I am listing the range given by the different books in Vegas and offshore as of 12 Noon EST Wednesday, so you can use the one that best meets your needs.  Remember though, if you use parlays and teasers, you must use the same source.  You cannot play a parlay using the odds from different books.  What you will see in my “imaginary picks” below will show different books, but each teaser will be composed of games from the same book.  When I believe it is okay to play different spreads of the same game, I have put those numbers in parentheses.  If you don’t see different choices, then I only recommend that single spread for that game.

 

I leave it to you to find out the book in question.  Generally, some of the big ones in Vegas are: Hilton, Caesar’s-Harrah’s, MGM Mirage, Stations, Leroy’s, Wynn, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, and The Palms.  Some of the large offshore books include: BetUs, Bodog, Sportsbook, BetJamaica, and Pinnacle.

 

Average Simulation Scores for each game are now rounded to nearest whole number.

 

NFL Previews-Week 16

 

Indianapolis (10-4-0) at Jacksonville (5-9-0)

Time:           8:15 PM EST, Thursday

TV:               NFL Network

Forecast:     Clear, light wind, temperature falling from the upper to mid 60’s

 

PiRate:                Indianapolis by 3                  

Mean:                  Indianapolis by 4

Bias:                    Indianapolis by 7

 

Vegas:               Indianapolis by 6, 6.5, 7

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Indianapolis 79  Jacksonville 21

Avg Sim Score:  Indianapolis 27  Jacksonville 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Indianapolis 38  Jacksonville 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jacksonville 27 Indianapolis 17

 

Strategy:     Over 44, Indianapolis +4 in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis +7 in 13-point teaser, Indianapolis -250, Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser

 

Indianapolis has something to play for in this game as well as some revenge for a nasty loss in September.  Jacksonville will finish in last place in the division after being picked to win it by many pundits.

 

The Colts have won seven games straight after losing at Tennessee to fall to 3-4.  It is my belief that they will win this game and win next week against Tennessee to finish in a tie for first in the division (Titans hold the tiebreaker edge).

 

By winning this game, Indianapolis will sew up the #5 seed in the AFC Playoffs, and that means playing at Denver (San Diego) rather than the AFC East Champion.  I think they will be ready to play, and it will lead to a touchdown or more victory.  Then, watch out for Peyton Manning in the playoffs.

 

 

Baltimore (9-5-0) at Dallas (9-5-0)

Time:           8:15 PM EST, Saturday

TV:               NFL

Forecast:     Thunderstorms possible, then clearing as a cold front moves through, moderate wins, temperature at kickoff in the low to mid 60’s but dropping rapidly to the low 40’s

 

PiRate:                Baltimore by 4

Mean:                  Baltimore by 1

Bias:                    Tossup

 

Vegas:               Dallas by 4, 4.5, 5   

Ov/Un:               39, 39.5, 40

 

100 Sims:           Dallas 52  Baltimore 48

Avg Sim Score:  Dallas 19  Baltimore 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Dallas 21  Baltimore 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Baltimore 20  Dallas 10

 

Strategy:     Baltimore +15 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +18 in 13-point teaser, Under 53 in 13-point teaser

 

This could be the last game ever played in Texas Stadium, as the Cowboys could only host the NFC Championship if they finish as the higher-seeded wildcard team and they play the lower-seeded wildcard team.

 

Both teams played critical games last week and should enter this game at less than full strength, if only psychologically.  Baltimore should be ready to rebound.  I am not sure about the Dallas players.  Combine the dissension with the probable bounce from beating the Giants, and I think they could play below expectations this week.

 

I believe Baltimore has the better chance of winning, but I will play it close to the vest and select the Ravens in the teasers.  While I would normally tease the Over for a primetime game, I am guessing that the Ravens’ anger will benefit their defense and not their offense.  I am looking for a 17-13 Baltimore win.  Ray Lewis is mad, and that’s worth four points.

 

 

New Orleans (7-7-0) at Detroit (0-14-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                New Orleans by 12

Mean:                  New Orleans by 10

Bias:                    New Orleans by 10

 

Vegas:               New Orleans by 6.5, 7, 7.5   

Ov/Un:               50, 50.5, 51, 51.5

 

100 Sims:           New Orleans 87  Detroit 13

Avg Sim Score:  New Orleans 36  Detroit 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  New Orleans 55  Detroit 20

Outlier 1b Sim:  Detroit 34  New Orleans 27

 

Strategy:     Detroit +7½, Detroit +17½ in 10-point teaser, Detroit +20½ in 13-point teaser 

 

Detroit has two weeks left to avoid a history-making season they definitely do not want to have.  They will be playing these last two games like they are playoff games.  I think this may be their better shot.

 

New Orleans was eliminated from the playoff hunt last week, and they have nothing to play for.  Reggie Bush may not play in this game, and you beat the Lions by running the ball down their throats.

 

New Orleans’ defense is just weak enough for Dan Orlovsky to pass for 200 yards.  I don’t know if it will be enough to win, but I think the Lions can beat the spread, even if they give up 400 passing yard to Drew Brees.

 

 

Cincinnati (2-11-1) at Cleveland (4-10-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Snow, strong wind, temperature in the mid to upper 30’s

 

PiRate:                Cleveland by 7

Mean:                  Cleveland by 6

Bias:                    Cleveland by 4

 

Vegas:               Cleveland by 2.5, 3        

Ov/Un:               33.5, 34, 34.5

 

100 Sims:           Cleveland 63 Cincinnati 37

Avg Sim Score:  Cleveland 23 Cincinnati 19

Outlier 1a Sim:  Cleveland 40 Cincinnati 21

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cincinnati 28 Cleveland 14

 

Strategy:     Over 23½ in 10-point teaser, Over 20½ in 13-point teaser      

 

This is strictly a strategy pick here.  I think the average NFL team could put their defensive players on offense and have a good chance of scoring 20 points against the Bengals.  I think the Bengals have a 65% chance of scoring 20 points against the Browns.  The weather is the only negative intangible.  If it is really windy with blowing snow, it could hold the score down.  Still, I have to believe that a 14-10 final is about as low as the scoring could be in this one.  The actual attendance for this game might rival the attendance for the Humanitarian Bowl in a couple weeks.

 

Miami (9-5-0) at Kansas City (2-12-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, strong wind, temperature in the upper teens

 

PiRate:                Miami by 6

Mean:                  Miami by 5

Bias:                    Miami by 9

 

Vegas:                Miami by 3.5, 4

Ov/Un:               39.5, 40

 

100 Sims:           Miami 83  Kansas City 17

Avg Sim Score:  Miami 23  Kansas City 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Miami 27  Kansas City 10

Outlier 1b Sim:  Kansas City 21 Miami 16 (4 others ended in 5-point wins)

 

Strategy:     Kansas City +14 in 10-point teaser, Kansas City +17 in 13-point teaser, Under 53 in 13-point teaser

 

Again, this game is another strategy pick game.  The Dolphins cannot prepare for 15-degree weather and wind chills below zero.  Kansas City seems to be the champion of losing close games.  Six of their losses have been by a touchdown or less.

 

Miami’s offense has been sputtering the last month or so, and I think the reason for it is that defenses have figured out how to play the single wing package.  The Dolphins’ defense should still control the Chiefs’ offense for most of the day, and I look for a final score of about 17-10 in favor of Tony Sparano’s Fish.

 

 

Pittsburgh (11-3-0) at Tennessee (12-2-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Chance of light rain, strong wind, temperature in the upper 40’s

 

PiRate:                Tennessee by 3

Mean:                  Tennessee by 1

Bias:                    Tennessee by 1

 

Vegas:               Pk, Pittsburgh by 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5  

Ov/Un:               34.5, 35

 

100 Sims:           Pittsburgh 61  Tennessee 39

Avg Sim Score:  Pittsburgh 19  Tennessee 15

Outlier 1a Sim:  Pittsburgh 24  Tennessee 10

Outlier 1b Sim:  Tennessee 16  Pittsburgh 7

 

Strategy:     Pittsburgh Pk, Pittsburgh +10 in 10-point teaser, Pittsburgh +13 in 13-point teaser, Over 24½ in 10-point teaser, Over 21½ in 13-point teaser, Pittsburgh -130 

The winner of this game will have control over home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.  The Titans seemed to have it clinched a few weeks ago when they held a three-game lead over the field.  After losses to the Jets and Texans and with Pittsburgh on a five-game winning streak, it sets up this big game.

 

The Steelers come into this game rather healthy for Week 17.  The Titans are hurting big time.  Both Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth are finished for the regular season, and the Titans cannot rely on greybeard Jevon Kearse to be his old freakish self. 

 

Neither team strikes fear in opponents with their offenses, but Ben Roethlisberger is considerably better than Kerry Collins, and the Steelers’ receiving corps is much better than that of the Titans.

 

I believe the Steelers will outmuscle the Titans in the trenches and win an ugly game that leaves both teams in even worse shape as the final week approaches.  It is highly possible Tennessee will limp into the playoffs with a three-game losing streak, while Pittsburgh enjoys a seven-game winning streak with home field advantage theirs.

 

 

Philadelphia (8-5-1) at Washington (7-7-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Rain, freezing rain, and sleet, light wind, temperature falling through the 30’s

 

PiRate:                Philadelphia by 8

Mean:                  Philadelphia by 6

Bias:                    Philadelphia by 6

 

Vegas:               Philadelphia by 4.5, 5, 5.5

Ov/Un:               39, 39.5

 

100 Sims:           Philadelphia 60  Washington 40

Avg Sim Score:  Philadelphia 26  Washington 20

Outlier 1a Sim:  Philadelphia 38  Washington 16

Outlier 1b Sim:  Washington 24  Philadelphia 13

 

Strategy:     Philadelphia -4½, Philadelphia -215, Philadelphia +5½ in 10-point teaser, Philadelphia +8½ in 13-point teaser, Over 26 in 13-point teaser

Since Thanksgiving, the Eagles have played the best ball of all the NFC teams, while the Redskins performance has been no better than St. Louis or Detroit.

 

Both teams technically still have a chance to reach the playoffs, but Washington’s chances are about the same as one of their players winning the mega millions lottery.

 

Philadelphia has some amends to make up for after losing by six to the Redskins in early October.  At the time, the Eagles were in a funk while Washington was coming up with a way to win every week.  Expect a completely different game this week.  I’m looking for Philadelphia to win by five or more points and wouldn’t be surprised if that “more” was something like 10-17 points, as I am looking for Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook to shine.  

 

 

San Francisco (5-9-0) at St. Louis (2-12-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                San Francisco by 10

Mean:                 San Francisco by 7

Bias:                    San Francisco by 9

 

Vegas:                San Francisco by 5, 5.5

Ov/Un:               43, 43.5, 44

 

100 Sims:           San Francisco 68  St. Louis 32

Avg Sim Score:  San Francisco 25  St. Louis 17

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Francisco 35  St. Louis 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  St. Louis 17  San Francisco 12

 

Strategy:     Under 57 in 13-point teaser

Since that crazy 34-14 upset over Dallas, St. Louis has averaged just 11.6 points per game in their last eight games.  Since Mike Singletary took over as coach, the 49ers have yielded just 18.5 points per game (10.3 in their last 3).  That doesn’t bode well for the Rams’ offense.  I would be shocked if they reach 17 points in this contest.  San Francisco is no juggernaut on offense, and they could very well score 17 points or less themselves.

 

This game should be close, and I cannot see a scenario where both teams reach 20 points.  The highest score I could see in this would be around 28-17, so I like teasing the Under in this game.

 

 

San Diego (6-8-0) at Tampa Bay (9-5-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 70’s

 

PiRate:                Tampa Bay by 5

Mean:                 Tampa Bay by 6

Bias:                    Tampa Bay by 8

 

Vegas:                Tampa Bay by 3, 3.5      

Ov/Un:               42, 42.5

 

100 Sims:           Tampa Bay 73  San Diego 27

Avg Sim Score:  Tampa Bay 29  San Diego 20

Outlier 1a Sim:  Tampa Bay 34  San Diego 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  San Diego 31  Tampa Bay 24

 

Strategy:     Over 32 in 10-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser

San Diego is so unpredictable, while Tampa Bay has been out of sync the last couple of weeks.  I won’t begin to try to figure out which team will win this “must win” game, but I will surmise that both teams will top 17 points in this strategy play.  I am hesitant to pick the Buccaneers to win at home, as they have been struggling to put together a total effort in the last month. 

 

San Diego has been involved in nine close games, in which the Chargers have gone just 2-7.  They play about the same on the road as they do at home.  It wouldn’t be much of an upset if they won this game, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they found a way to lose another close one.

 

 

Arizona (8-6-0) at New England (9-5-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Light snow, moderate wind, temperature in the low 30’s

 

PiRate:                New England by 2

Mean:                  New England by 4

Bias:                    New England by 4

 

Vegas:               New England by 7.5, 8, 9

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           New England 57  Arizona 43

Avg Sim Score:  New England 29  Arizona 27

Outlier 1a Sim:  New England 41  Arizona 24

Outlier 1b Sim:  Arizona 45  New England 28

 

Strategy:     New England +2½ in 10-point teaser, New England +5½ in 13-point teaser, New England -335, Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser 

Arizona can do nothing to change its playoff destination.  The Cardinals will host an opening round game in the playoffs whether they finish 10-6, 9-7, or 8-8.  Yes, they could be the number three or number four seed, but it really won’t make much difference.

 

New England is still very much on the playoff bubble.  At 9-5-0, they are the eighth team in the AFC, and only six teams make the playoffs.  This game is much more important to them than it is to the Cardinals.  The snow and cold weather should help them a bit in this game.

 

Arizona is just 4-4 since their bye week.  The Cardinals have been struggling against the good teams and have fattened up on the weak teams.  Against teams with a losing record, they are 6-0.  In their last eight games against teams either in the playoffs or in the hunt for a playoff spot, they have given up 38 points per game.

 

New England is a Jekyll and Hyde team.  They have two typical offensive outputs.  Either they struggle offensively and lose 24-13 or they move the ball like they did most of last year and win 45-21.  I can see no reason not to believe that this will be one of those weeks where the Patriots have little trouble advancing the pigskin, even in inclement weather. 

 

Kurt Warner may pass for 300-350 yards, but I don’t see the Cardinals matching the Pats point for point.  I’ll go with Matt Cassel and crew to win 31-21 or thereabouts.

 

 

Houston (7-7-0) at Oakland (3-11-0)

Time:           4:05PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Mostly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 40’s

 

PiRate:                Houston by 9

Mean:                 Houston by 9

Bias:                   Houston by 10

 

Vegas:               Houston by 7, 7.5, 8      

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Houston 77  Oakland 23

Avg Sim Score:  Houston 26  Oakland 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Houston 33  Oakland 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Oakland 27  Houston 23

 

Strategy:     Houston +3 in 10-point teaser, Houston +6 in 13-point teaser

Houston could easily be in the playoff mix this season if it weren’t for all the troubles the team endured at the beginning of the season due to the hurricane.  Two close losses to Indianapolis and an overtime loss to Jacksonville keep them from owning a 10-4-0 record.  The Texans have won four in a row, and they can see a winning record in their future.  They must win this game and then beat the Bears at Reliant Stadium next week to clinch their first ever winning season.

 

Oakland would just like for this season to end.  When they lost at home to the Chiefs, the Raider defense seemed to have folded up the tent for the season.

 

I think Houston could win this game in a blowout, but the Texans are coming off an emotional high after defeating Tennessee.  So, I must caution you to be conservative in this one and consider the possibility that Houston could be a little flat this week.  They may have a hard time just winning by any amount, so go with them in the teasers.

 

 

New York Jets (9-5-0) at Seattle (3-11-0)

Time:           4:05 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Snow, light wind, temperature in the upper 20’s

 

PiRate:                Jets by 7

Mean:                 Jets by 4

Bias:                   Jets by 7

 

Vegas:                Jets by 4.5, 5, 6

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Jets 64  Seattle 36

Avg Sim Score:  Jets 32  Seattle 26

Outlier 1a Sim:  Jets 48  Seattle 21

Outlier 1b Sim:  Seattle 30  Jets 24 ot (largest spread)

 

Strategy:     Seattle +16 in 10-point teaser, Seattle +19 in 13-point teaser, Under 57½ in 13-point teaser

This will be Mike Holmgren’s last home game as coach of the Seahawks, and look who will be the opposing quarterback-the guy who wears the same Super Bowl ring he wears.

 

The Jets have made three other trips to the West Coast this year.  They lost at San Diego 48-29, at Oakland 16-13 in OT, and at San Francisco 24-14.  Seattle is no worse than Oakland and split with San Francisco, so they should have a decent chance to win this one.

 

The Jets control their own destiny.  If they win this game and then beat the Dolphins next week, they are the AFC East Champions.  If they lose this week, then they will need a New England loss and a win over Miami to get into the playoffs.

 

Brett Favre usually finds a way to win this type of game.  I think the Jets realize they are unlikely to make the playoffs if they lose.  However, I don’t expect them to win by double digits.  They will be happy to win by a field goal, so I like the home team in the teasers.

 

 

Buffalo (6-8-0) at Denver (8-6-0)

Time:           4:05 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 20’s

 

PiRate:                Denver by 1

Mean:                 Denver by 4

Bias:                   Denver by 5

 

Vegas:                Denver by 6.5, 7, 7.5   

Ov/Un:               43.5, 44

 

100 Sims:           Denver 55  Buffalo 45

Avg Sim Score:  Denver 30  Buffalo 27

Outlier 1a Sim:  Denver 41  Buffalo 23

Outlier 1b Sim:  Buffalo 28  Denver 17

 

Strategy:       Denver +3½ in 10-point teaser, Denver +6½ in 13-point teaser, Over 30½ in 13-point teaser

Two months ago, the Bills were 4-0 and the darlings of the NFL media world.  Coach Dick Jauron was a genius.  10 years go, Mike Shanahan was a genius.  Now, those same pundits believe neither coach could properly lead their teams out of paper bags.

 

The truth of the matter is that both of these teams have glaring holes on the defensive side of the ball, and both of these teams have been hurt by injuries on the attack side.

 

Trent Edwards will return to the lineup for Buffalo, and the Bills’ offense should rebound with a stellar effort.  Buffalo should top 21 points in this game.

 

Jay Cutler will go over 4,000 total passing yards in this game, as I expect him to top 275 yards against the Bills’ secondary.  Denver should top 24 points. 

 

The Broncos will win the AFC West without any help from Tampa Bay this week.  Look for the home team to win by five to eight points.    

 

 

Atlanta (9-5-0) at Minnesota (9-5-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Minnesota by 2

Mean:                  Minnesota by 4

Bias:                    Minnesota by 5

 

Vegas:               Minnesota by 3, 3.5

Ov/Un:               43, 43.5, 44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Minnesota 52  Atlanta 48

Avg Sim Score:  Minnesota 24  Atlanta 24

Outlier 1a Sim:  Minnesota 28  Atlanta 16

Outlier 1b Sim:  Atlanta 23  Minnesota 13

 

Strategy:     Minnesota +7 in 10-point teaser, Minnesota +10 in 13-point teaser, Over 30 in 13-point teaser

This is going to be a great game, and most of the nation will get to see it.  The Vikings will clinch the old black and blue division if they win, whereas the Falcons will likely move into the number six position in the playoff field if they win. 

 

Look at Minnesota’s resume since September.  The purple people eaters have won eight of their last 10 games.  The two losses have come on the road by seven and six points.  Gus Frerotte came off the bench to start the turnaround, but Tarvaris Jackson looked like an All-pro last week against Arizona.

 

Atlanta is a tough team in 2008.  They play like the Bears of the 1960’s and 1980’s.  Michael Turner should top the 1,500 yard rushing barrier some time during this game, and he should match Adrian Peterson yard for yard, even against the Vikings’ tough run defense.

 

The difference in this game could be Bernard Berrian.  He can take a simple pass reception and turn it into a 40 yard gain.  The Falcon secondary will have to play a little more loose to prevent Berrian from breaking a long one.  That should give Peterson just enough extra edge to have a five to six yards per carry average.  I’ll take the Vikings in a close one in the neighborhood of 24-21.

 

Carolina (11-3-0) at New York Giants (11-3-0)  

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Rain, sleet, and snow, moderate wind, temperature falling from the mid 30’s to the mid 20’s

                    

PiRate:                Giants by 4

Mean:                  Giants by 3

Bias:                    Giants by 1

 

Vegas:               Giants by 3, 3.5

Ov/Un:               37.5, 38, 38.5, 39

 

100 Sims:           Giants 51 Carolina 48 1 Tie (8 OT games)

Avg Sim Score:  Carolina 20  Giants 19

Outlier 1a Sim:  Carolina 24  Giants 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Giants 21  Carolina 12

 

Strategy:     Carolina +13½ in 10-point teaser, Carolina +16½ in 13-point teaser, Over 24½ in 13-point teaser

Carolina has its offense in gear, averaging 32.4 points in their last five games.  The Giants have played more like the Rams since the Plaxico Burress shooting incident.  Now, Brandon Jacobs is hurting, and even though it looks like he will play, don’t expect him to rush for 70 yards Sunday night.

 

Carolina has been quite fortunate to this point of the season.  Their defense has stayed healthy all season with nary a start being missed.  That could change this week as defensive tackle Maake Kemoeatu could miss this game with a tweaked ankle.

 

To the winner will more than likely go home field advantage for the playoffs.  I believe Carolina will pass the ball a little more than they normally do to set up the running game with their dynamic duo of James Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.  Jake Delhomme should pass for 200 yards, and the Panthers will win by about a field goal to a touchdown.

 

 

Green Bay (5-9-0) at Chicago (8-6-0)

Time:           8:30PM EST Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Cloudy, moderate wind, temperature holding steady in the mid teens

 

PiRate:                Chicago by 1

Mean:                  Chicago by 3

Bias:                    Chicago by 6

 

Vegas:                Chicago by 4, 4.5

Ov/Un:               41.5, 42

 

100 Sims:           Chicago 89  Green Bay 11

Avg Sim Score:  Chicago 29  Green Bay 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Chicago 37  Green Bay 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  Green Bay 32  Chicago 27

 

Strategy:     Chicago -4, Chicago -195, Chicago +6 in 10-point teaser, Chicago +9 in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser

This is a tough game to analyze due to major intangible factors that won’t be known until Sunday evening.  If Minnesota beats Atlanta, then the Bears could be eliminated from the playoffs.  They will be eliminated from the NFC North race, and they will have only a tiny chance of gaining a wildcard spot.

 

Green Bay’s defense has gone south too many times this year, and that’s why the Packers are going to lose more than they win.  The offense hasn’t been as powerful since the first game against the Bears, and this game could see a near reversal of that one-but only if the Bears really have something to play for.

 

Regardless of the outcome in Minneapolis, I see Chicago winning this game by stopping the Green Bay offense and scoring just enough to be comfortably ahead as the fourth quarter starts.  Call it a 27-14 win on the Midway, as Kyle Orton passes for 250 yards against Aaron Rodgers’ 200 and a pick or two.

 

 

 A Bad Week Follow A Good Week

 

I made a mistake last week when I posted my picks for the week, and it wound up costing me two games.  Thus, I finished 1-4 when I should have gone 3-2.  Mistakes count, whether here or at a betting window, so I have to live with the consequences.  It made me quite upset when I realized it Sunday morning.

 

For the season, the record against the spread is now 95-79-7, which computes to 54.6%. 

 

I am going with a variety of picks this week, but I am not overly thrilled with the choices.  In past years, I have been more excited about the end of the season games than the early part of the schedule.  This year, I am finding it harder and harder to identify excellent plays as the season comes to the end.

 

Here are my wagers for week 17 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):

 

1. Indianapolis & Jacksonville Over 44

 

2. Pittsburgh Pk vs. Tennessee

 

3. Philadelphia -4½ vs. Washington

 

4. Chicago -4 vs. Green Bay

 

5. Indianapolis -250 vs. Jacksonville

 

6. Philadelphia -215 vs. Washington

 

7. New England -335 vs. Arizona

 

8. Chicago -195 vs. Green Bay

 

9. 10-point teaser

Indianapolis +4 vs. Jacksonville

Indianapolis & Jacksonville Over 34

Baltimore +15 vs. Dallas

 

10. 10-point teaser

Detroit +17½ vs. New Orleans

Cincinnati & Cleveland Over 23½

Kansas City +14 vs. Miami

 

11. 10-point teaser

Pittsburgh +10 vs. Tennessee

Philadelphia +5½ vs. Washington

San Diego & Tampa Bay Over 32

 

12. 10-point teaser

New England +2½ vs. Arizona

New England & Arizona Over 34

Houston +3 vs. Oakland

 

13. 10-point teaser

Seattle +16 vs. New York Jets

Denver +3½ vs. Buffalo

Minnesota +7 vs. Atlanta

 

14. 10-point teaser

Carolina +13½ vs. New York Giants

Chicago +6 vs. Green Bay

Chicago & Green Bay Over 31½

 

15. 13-point teaser

Baltimore +18 vs. Dallas

Kansas City +17 vs. Miami

Pittsburgh +13 vs. Tennessee

Philadelphia +8½ vs. Washington

 

16. 13-point teaser

San Francisco & St. Louis Under 57

New England +5½ vs. Arizona

New England & Arizona Over 31

Houston +6 vs. Oakland

 

17. 13-point teaser

Seattle +19 vs. New York Jets

Minnesota +10 vs. Atlanta

Carolina +16½ vs. New York Giants

Chicago +9 vs. Green Bay

   

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

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