The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 4, 2008

PiRate Ratings Week 14 NFL Previews: December 4-8, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 14

Will It Be Another Topsy-Turvy Weekend?

 

Who woulda thunk it?  The Broncos clobbered the Jets at the Meadowlands.  San Francisco won at Buffalo.  Cleveland almost beat Indianapolis.  The Steelers blew New England out in Foxboro.  I don’t even want to list how poorly my record was in the selections.  Suffice it to say, it was brutal.

 

Starting this week, I am changing the coverage a little bit.  I have placed the current teams in the Pro Football Computer Simulator and simulated each game 100 times.  I figure the simulator may have better luck at picking the winners than me.  What you will see in each game preview is the number of games out of the 100 simulations each team won, the average score, the extreme scores in both directions, and the extreme total points scored in both directions.  The weather has also been simulated.  If the forecast calls for a 30% chance of showers, then 30 of the simulations had wet field conditions. 

 

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

 

Current NFL Standings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

11

1

0

352

206

110.99

110.26

108.82

2

Dallas

8

4

0

299

260

102.24

102.54

104.33

2

Washington

7

5

0

208

222

99.35

99.60

100.76

2

Philadelphia

6

5

1

319

249

106.51

104.08

103.69

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Minnesota

7

5

0

287

260

104.10

103.89

103.77

2

Chicago

6

6

0

281

268

101.43

100.66

101.39

2

Green Bay

5

7

0

334

295

105.13

103.02

101.41

2

Detroit

0

12

0

203

393

86.33

89.17

85.28

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Tampa Bay

9

3

0

280

200

106.14

104.70

106.14

2

Carolina

9

3

0

285

231

104.51

103.12

105.50

2

Atlanta

8

4

0

298

242

104.52

103.34

103.15

2

New Orleans

6

6

0

337

301

103.34

102.65

101.57

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Arizona

7

5

0

338

313

100.78

101.15

101.36

3

San Francisco

4

8

0

262

313

93.72

95.48

95.81

3

Seattle

2

10

0

216

311

91.84

93.64

93.27

3

St. Louis

2

10

0

159

360

83.62

87.97

88.09

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

8

4

0

340

268

102.78

102.82

103.29

2

New England

7

5

0

277

255

99.85

101.22

101.79

2

Miami

7

5

0

253

257

97.46

97.61

100.59

2

Buffalo

6

6

0

276

259

97.28

97.29

99.29

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Pittsburgh

9

3

0

269

170

108.99

106.90

107.15

2

Baltimore

8

4

0

292

190

109.14

107.58

106.12

3

Cleveland

4

8

0

213

247

98.35

97.56

95.36

2

Cincinnati

1

10

1

151

310

91.98

92.52

90.07

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Tennessee

11

1

0

304

175

109.77

107.45

108.02

2

Indianapolis

8

4

0

257

250

103.28

103.37

104.71

2

Houston

5

7

0

282

310

98.33

99.31

99.30

3

Jacksonville

4

8

0

241

270

97.81

97.65

97.07

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Denver

7

5

0

292

319

96.59

97.74

101.04

2

San Diego

4

8

0

290

274

101.44

99.65

98.79

2

Oakland

3

9

0

172

265

91.85

93.46

91.44

2

Kansas City

2

10

0

216

340

90.51

92.66

91.61

2

 

 

Note: due to the Thursday game, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday 12 Noon EST

 

You will now see multiple numbers given in the Vegas line and Ov/Un.  I am listing the range given by the different books in Vegas and offshore as of 12 Noon EST Wednesday, so you can use the one that best meets your needs.  Remember though, if you use parlays and teasers, you must use the same source.  You cannot play a parlay using the odds from different books.  What you will see in my “imaginary picks” below will show different books, but each teaser will be composed of games from the same book.  I leave it to you to find out the book in question.  Generally, some of the big ones in Vegas are: Hilton, Caesar’s-Harrah’s, MGM Mirage, Stations, Leroy’s, Wynn, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, and The Palms.  Some of the large offshore books include: BetUs, Bodog, Sportsbook, BetJamaica, and Pinnacle.

 

NFL Previews-Week 14

 

Oakland (3-9-0) at San Diego (4-8-0)

Time:           8:15 PM EST, Thursday

TV:               NFL Network

Forecast:     Mostly cloudy, light wind, temperature falling from the low 60’s to the upper 50’s

 

PiRate:                San Diego by 12                    

Mean:                  San Diego by 8

Bias:                    San Diego by 9

Vegas:               San Diego by 9,9.5, 10, 10.5

Ov/Un:               42, 42.5

100 Sims:           San Diego 83  Oakland 17

Avg Sim Score:  San Diego 29.6  Oakland 15.1

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Diego 48  Oakland 10

Outlier 1b Sim:  Oakland 24  San Diego 14

 

Strategy:            Over 32 in 10-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser

The Raiders lost at home to Kansas City last week after winning big at Denver the week before.  San Diego is slowly rotting away and appears out of the playoff picture.  I don’t expect a stellar effort from either side, but I do expect enough shenanigans due to national TV exposure for there to be some offensive fireworks.  I believe this game should see both teams top 17 points, so teasing the Over is how to play this one.

 

 

Atlanta (7-5-0) at New Orleans (6-6-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                New Orleans by 1

Mean:                  New Orleans by 1

Bias:                    Tossup

Vegas:               New Orleans by 3    

Ov/Un:               51, 51.5, 52

100 Sims:           New Orleans 57  Atlanta 43

Avg Sim Score:  New Orleans 27.9  Atlanta 24.5

Outlier 1a Sim:  New Orleans 45  Atlanta 24

Outlier 1b Sim:  Atlanta 31  New Orleans 20

 

Strategy:            Over 41 in 10-point teaser, Over 38 in 13-point teaser, Under 65 in 13-point teaser

This will be an exciting game, and I expect both teams to score 21 or more points.  Drew Brees was not on target last week, and the Saints paid for it with a loss.  The Falcons won the first meeting in Atlanta, and this is a must-win for New Orleans.  If the dirty birds win, the Saints can go marching away from the playoffs.  I look for New Orleans to win the game and score 24-34 points.  They’ve given up 28 points per game in their last six contests, so I really like teasing the Over in this game.  Using another book’s high totals number, the Under 65 is enticing.  I am not as excited as the Over, but 65 points are asking a lot from both teams.  Think about a 35-28 game; that’s still not enough to sink us.  Of course, this could be a 38-35 game, so use this one with caution.  My best guess is 28-24 Saints.

 

 

Philadelphia (6-5-1) at New York Giants (11-1)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Intermittent snow showers, light to moderate winds, temperature in the mid to upper 30’s

 

PiRate:                Giants by 6

Mean:                  Giants by 8

Bias:                    Giants by 7

Vegas:               Giants by 6.5, 7, 7.5   

Ov/Un:               43, 43.5, 44

100 Sims:           Giants 89  Philadelphia 11

Avg Sim Score:  Giants 30.2  Philadelphia 22.6

Outlier 1a Sim:  Giants 44  Philadelphia 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  Philadelphia 27  Giants 24 (2 games)

 

Strategy:            Over 33 in 10-point teaser, Over 30 in 13-point teaser

Four weeks ago, these teams hooked up in a fantastic game in Philadelphia with the Giants winning 36-31.  The Eagles need this game to have a realistic shot at a wildcard berth.  If they can pull off the upset, I believe they will be no worse than 9-6-1 and could possibly run the table to finish 10-5-1.  If they lose, they could easily finish 8-7-1 or worse, and that won’t get them into the postseason.

 

The Giants could be the next repeat Super Bowl Champion.  In the past, the second championship team is usually a better defensive team than the prior year’s team.  It’s no different with New York, but the Eagles have the talent to score points on them.

 

For what it’s worth, 94 of the 100 simulations on this game produced results with a total score of 35 and above.  I will go with the simulator and call for a 30-21 score in favor of the Giants; that means, I’m teasing the Over in this one.

 

 

Jacksonville (4-8-0) at Chicago (6-6-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in mid 20’s

 

PiRate:                Chicago by 6

Mean:                  Chicago by 5

Bias:                    Chicago by 6

Vegas:               Chicago by 6.5         

Ov/Un:               39.5, 40, 40.5

100 Sims:           Chicago 79  Jacksonville 21

Avg Sim Score:  Chicago 25.3  Jacksonville 16.9

Outlier 1a Sim:  Chicago 37  Jacksonville 10

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jacksonville 24 Chicago 17

 

Strategy:            Over 26½ in 13-point teaser

This game scares me this week.  Both teams are headed in the wrong direction.  Chicago is still alive in the mediocre NFC North, where a 9-7 record could win the division.  The Jaguars are done for the season and have little to play for.  Their offense has continued to misfire, as the Jags have scored less than 20 points in five of the last six games (that one offensive outburst came against Detroit).

 

The weather should be very Chicago-like for December, and I don’t think the Jags will like it very much.  I look for the Bears to have their way this week, but I am worried that the elements could make it a better day for the defenses.  I am looking at a 20-10 win for Chicago, and that’s just enough to consider playing the Over in a 13-point teaser.  However, I’m not married to this game.

 

 

Minnesota (7-5-0) at Detroit (0-12-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Minnesota by 15

Mean:                  Minnesota by 12

Bias:                    Minnesota by 15

Vegas:                Minnesota by 7.5, 8, 9  

Ov/Un:               45, 46.5

100 Sims:           Minnesota 96  Detroit 4

Avg Sim Score:  Minnesota 30.2  Detroit 14.4

Outlier 1a Sim:  Minnesota 51  Detroit 12

Outlier 1b Sim:  Detroit 24  Minnesota 20

 

Strategy:            Minnesota +5½ in 13-point teaser, Over 32 in 13-point teaser       

I thought that Detroit would eventually put it all together and pull off a win or two this year.  I still believe they might win a game before the season ends, and this is a week where they may believe they can win.  The Lions only lost to Minnesota 12-10 the first time, and they will have the confidence to go out there and play unlike an 0-12 team.

 

Detroit has the benefit of three extra preparation days, while Minnesota is coming off a Sunday night game.  The intangibles weigh heavily in favor of the Lions.  I still will pick the Vikings to win or at least lose by five or fewer points.  If Detroit pulls off the upset, I expect it to be by a field goal or less with the game decided at the very end. 

 

Minnesota’s defense is missing some key components, and I think Detroit will score 17-21 points in this game.  The Vikings should be able to run the ball for 150+ yards, and that should allow Gus Frerotte to put 20 points on the board.  Thus, I like teasing the Over in this game.

 

 

Houston (5-7-0) at Green Bay (5-7-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the mid to upper teens

 

PiRate:                Green Bay by 9

Mean:                  Green Bay by 6

Bias:                    Green Bay by 4

Vegas:               Green Bay by 6  

Ov/Un:               47, 47.5

100 Sims:           Houston 52  Green Bay 48

Avg Sim Score:  Houston 32.3  Green Bay 31.8

Outlier 1a Sim:  Houston 47  Green Bay 28

Outlier 1b Sim:  Green Bay 30  Houston 14

 

Strategy:            Over 34½ in 13-point teaser

Both teams are 5-7, but the similarities end there.  Houston is 5-7 and on the rise, while Green Bay is 5-7 and on the decline.  The Packers have dropped four out of their last five games to fall two games in back of division-leading Minnesota.  The Texans have won five of eight after starting 0-3. 

 

Both of these teams could top 30 points against the opposition defense, but the weather could be a big factor this week.  With temperatures expected to be between 15 and 19 degrees over the course of the afternoon, Houston may not be ready to handle the elements.  Green Bay still has a remote shot at running the table and finishing 9-7 and winning the division.  Houston has no chance of getting into the playoffs.  In a last-ditch, must-win game, I expect Green Bay to win this game, but my safe choice here is to take the Over in a 13-point teaser.  Even with a frozen tundra playing surface, these teams should combine for at least 45 points and as many as 70.

 

 

Cleveland (4-8-0) at Tennessee (11-1-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in the upper 30’s

 

PiRate:                Tennessee by 13

Mean:                  Tennessee by 12

Bias:                    Tennessee by 15

Vegas:               Tennessee by 13.5, 14, 15

Ov/Un:               37.5, 38  

100 Sims:           Tennessee 88  Cleveland 12

Avg Sim Score:  Tennessee 30.7  Cleveland 19.4

Outlier 1a Sim:  Tennessee 41  Cleveland 10

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cleveland 28  Tennessee 23

 

Strategy:            Cleveland +28 in 13-point teaser, Over 24 ½ in 13-point teaser

Cleveland has very little left to play for this year.  The Browns are now down to their third quarterback in Ken Dorsey, and they won’t have Kellen Winslow for this game as well.  Their defense has a tough time stopping the run.

 

Tennessee will run the ball until Cleveland can stop it, and I don’t expect the Browns to consistently stop it.  The Titans will throw a host of blitzes and dogs at Dorsey, and it should be a long day for the Cleveland attack.

 

The weather will be more like Cleveland than Nashville, so that might help the Browns a little.  What I expect to help the Browns even more is the possibility that Titan Coach Jeff Fisher may choose to play overly conservative and possibly remove Kerry Collins if Tennessee is up by three touchdowns in the third quarter.

 

I believe the Titans will win this game with a score similar to 27-10.  It’s hard to ask them to win by more than four touchdowns, so I like the Browns as part of a 13-point teaser.  It’s not asking much to cover 24½ points, so I like teasing the Over.

 

One caveat to remember:  Cleveland beat the Giants by three touchdowns, and the Browns would like nothing more than to beat the top team in the AFC to make it a wonderful double. 

 

 

Cincinnati (1-10-1) at Indianapolis (8-4-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Roof will be closed

 

PiRate:                Indianapolis by 13

Mean:                 Indianapolis by 13

Bias:                    Indianapolis by 17

Vegas:                Indianapolis by 13.5, 14, 15

Ov/Un:               41.5, 42, 42,5

100 Sims:           Indianapolis 98  Cincinnati 2

Avg Sim Score:  Indianapolis 34.7  Cincinnati 13.8

Outlier 1a Sim:  Indianapolis 49  Cincinnati 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cincinnati 27  Indianapolis 24

 

Strategy:            Indianapolis -½ in a 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in a 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in a 13-point teaser  

Indianapolis is on a roll, and I expect them to keep winning in the regular season.  They could easily run the table and finish 12-4 on a nine-game winning streak.

 

Cincinnati has nothing left to play for.  The team is rife with dissension, and I expect major changes in the off-season.  I am surprised that the simulator even had them winning one of the 100 simulations.  The two wins it gave the Bengals were by one and three points.

 

I am going to have faith in the simulator this week and believe that Indy has a 98% chance of winning the game.  So, that tells me to take the Peyton Manning and company as part of a 13-point teaser.  I expect the Colts to top 28 points with plenty of time left in the game, so even if the Bengals lay a goose egg on the scoreboard, this game should see at least 30 points scored.

 

 

Kansas City (2-10-0) at Denver (7-5-0)

Time:           4:05 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:                Denver by 8

Mean:                 Denver by 7

Bias:                    Denver by 11

Vegas:                Denver by 8, 8.5, 9, 9.5, 10 

Ov/Un:               48, 48.5, 49

100 Sims:           Denver 79  Kansas City 21

Avg Sim Score:  Denver 33.0  Kansas City 20.3

Outlier 1a Sim:  Denver 55  Kansas City 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  Kansas City 31  Denver 24

 

Strategy:            Over 35 in 13-point teaser

Denver is so unpredictable.  They lost at Kansas City earlier in the season.  They lost at home to Oakland.  Yet, they won on the road against the Jets and won at Atlanta.

 

Kansas City is coming off a road win over rival Oakland, and the Chiefs have the confidence in knowing they stopped Jay Cutler once before.

 

My guess here is that the Chiefs will keep this game close enough to have a chance to win in the fourth quarter, but they will come up a bit short.  I think they will top 17 points for sure and should top 20.  Denver will score 21 to 31 points, so once again, I like teasing the Over as well as taking the revenge-mindful Broncos as a dog in a 13-point teaser.

 

 

Miami (7-5-0) vs. Buffalo (6-6-0) at Toronto

Time:           4:05PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Buffalo by 1

Mean:                  Buffalo by 1

Bias:                    Tossup

Vegas:               Buffalo by 0, 1, 1.5

Ov/Un:               42, 42.5

100 Sims:           Miami 56  Buffalo 44

Avg Sim Score:  Miami 24.7  Buffalo 22.1

Outlier 1a Sim:  Miami 38  Buffalo 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  Buffalo 27  Miami 14

 

Strategy:            Over 32 in 10-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser

So you want to see a really good game this week, eh?  You like a good, hard-fought game in the trenches, eh?  Then head north of the border to beautiful Toronto and catch this key game with major playoff implications.

 

The thing I like most about games played in unusual places is that they frequently take on the traits of Monday night games.  They usually end up being higher scoring than a typical game.

 

Miami beat the Bills 25-16 at Dolphins Stadium in October, and if this game were in Buffalo, I would pick the Bills to even the score.

 

The Rogers Centre (Skydome) is maybe worth one point of home advantage for Buffalo.  This game is a tossup, but I expect both teams to score 17 points or more.  That gives us a play in the teasers.

 

 

New York Jets (8-4-0) at San Francisco (4-8-0)

Time:           4:05PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature near 60

 

PiRate:                Jets by 6

Mean:                  Jets by 4

Bias:                    Jets by 4

Vegas:               Jets by 3.5, 4      

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

100 Sims:           Jets 62  San Francisco 38

Avg Sim Score:  Jets 25.1  San Francisco 20.4

Outlier 1a Sim:  Jets 49  San Francisco 24

Outlier 1b Sim:  San Francisco 20  Jets 14

 

Strategy:            Over 31 in 13-point teaser

I don’t really like any plays in this game this week.  What can we make of the 49ers going to Buffalo and winning handily?  What can we make of the Jets crashing at home against Denver’s marginally decent defense?

 

I would normally call for San Francisco to bounce and stink up the joint this week, while Brett Favre rebounds with a big day.  However, since Mike Singletary took over control of Frisco, the 49ers have been a different team.  They could be on the verge of living up to their expectations, albeit too late to get them into the playoffs.

 

I believe this game will be close, and San Francisco has a decent shot at the upset-maybe as much as a 55% chance.  If you are a real aggressive player, then you might consider taking the 49ers at +4 or even at +175 in a money line play.  I choose to stick with a teasing of the Over in this one.  Look for the score to be close with both teams topping 17 points.  31 points isn’t asking much in this one.

 

 

New England (7-5-0) at Seattle (2-10-0)

Time:           4:05 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain showers, light wind, temperature in the mid to upper 40’s

 

PiRate:                New England by 5

Mean:                 New England by 5

Bias:                   New England by 6

Vegas:                New England by 4.5, 5.5

Ov/Un:               43, 43.5

100 Sims:           New England 60  Seattle 40

Avg Sim Score:  New England 23.1  Seattle 17.7

Outlier 1a Sim:  New England 37  Seattle 16

Outlier 1b Sim:  Seattle 24  New England 13

 

Strategy:            Over 30 in 13-point teaser

If you have read this far, you have obviously noted the trend I am pointing to this week.  In a large majority of games this year, the teams have scored more than 13 points below the totals line.  In a small majority of games this year, the teams have scored less than 13 points above the totals line.  Thus, using the totals by playing the Over in 13-point teasers has a high chance of winning if you can pick the correct four games.

 

I have no desire to pick a winner in this game.  The Patriots are making a 3000-mile trek across three time zones to take on a wounded Seahawks team in adverse weather conditions.  New England is 10-14 points better than Seattle on a neutral field in ideal weather conditions.  The long distance and possible strong rain could neutralize most of that advantage.

 

I am tempted to call for this game to be very low scoring with the Patriots struggling to win 14-13.  I don’t think this game will see 45 points scored, and I am not all that sure that 35 total points will be scored.  30 points can be satisfied at 17-14 or 21-10.  It’s a little bit of a gamble, but I think 31 total points can be scored in this game, even if it is played in a monsoon.  A key turnover could lead to a defense scoring in this one.

 

 

Dallas (8-4-0) at Pittsburgh (9-3-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Snow showers, strong wind, temperature falling from around 30 to the upper 20’s

 

PiRate:                Pittsburgh by 9

Mean:                 Pittsburgh by 6

Bias:                   Pittsburgh by 5

Vegas:                Pittsburgh by 2.5, 3   

Ov/Un:               40, 40.5, 41

100 Sims:           Pittsburgh 55  Dallas 45

Avg Sim Score:  Pittsburgh 24.6  Dallas 22.8

Outlier 1a Sim:  Pittsburgh 30  Dallas 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  Dallas 28  Pittsburgh 21

 

Strategy:            Over 30 in a 10-point teaser, Over 27 in a 13-point teaser

There are five really big games this week, and this one may be the best of the lot.  These teams are playing their best ball of the season, and it should make for a great game.  An added bonus in this one is the fact that both teams have key intra-division games the following week.  If either or both teams’ players subconsciously look ahead to their big games next week, I expect it to affect their defenses more than their offenses.  Thus, if there is any intangible to take from the fact that Dallas must play the Giants and Pittsburgh must play Baltimore next week, it should lead to more points being scored in this game.

 

Remember that Dallas has enjoyed an extra three days off for this game.  However, in the past, the Cowboys have tended to under perform following their Thanksgiving game.

 

I believe the Steelers will win this game, and they will hold Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, and company below 20 points.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers won by more than a touchdown, but I feel more comfortable calling for them to win by a field goal.  The score could be 20-17, but I don’t expect it to be any lower scoring than that.

 

 

St. Louis (2-10-0) at Arizona (7-5-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Roof likely closed

 

PiRate:                Arizona by 20

Mean:                  Arizona by 16

Bias:                    Arizona by 16

Vegas:               Arizona by 14

Ov/Un:               48, 48.5

100 Sims:           Arizona 91  St. Louis 9

Avg Sim Score:  Arizona 37.6  St. Louis 17.8

Outlier 1a Sim:  Arizona 62  St. Louis 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  St. Louis 27  Arizona 24

 

Strategy:            Under 58½ in a 10-point teaser, Under 61½ in a 13-point teaser

This is one of the few games where I like teasing the Under as opposed to the Over.  St. Louis shouldn’t contribute too many points in this game.  The Rams scored just 13 points at home against the Cardinals in their first meeting, and they have failed to score 17 points for six consecutive weeks.

 

Arizona has dropped two games in a row to tough NFC East opponents.  The Cardinals have been outscored in their six games since their bye week.  They may feel some heat headed into this game, as their lead over San Francisco, while comfortable, is not insurmountable.  If they lose this game, and SF beats the Jets, who knows what may happen in the final three weeks?

 

It only takes a win this week coupled with a Jets win in the Bay for the Cardinals to clinch the NFC West.  I believe there’s a strong chance it will happen.  The Cardinals cannot lose this game.  I’m looking for a 35-10 win, and that’s well beneath the teaser points.

 

 

Washington (7-5-0) at Baltimore (8-4-0)

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Scattered showers, strong wind, temperature falling from upper to mid 30’s

                    

PiRate:                Baltimore by 13

Mean:                  Baltimore by 11

Bias:                    Baltimore by 8

Vegas:               Baltimore by 5, 5.5, 6

Ov/Un:               35, 35.5, 36

100 Sims:           Baltimore 63  Washington 36  1 Tie

Avg Sim Score:  Baltimore 22.9  Washington 19.4

Outlier 1a Sim:  Baltimore 27  Washington 6

Outlier 1b Sim:  Washington 20  Baltimore 13

 

Strategy:            Over 25½ in a 10-point teaser, Over 22½ in                      a 13-point teaser 

This game is not that big of a rivalry game.  Even when the Colts played in Baltimore in the pre-merger days, this wasn’t that much of a rivalry.  The Orioles and Senators also didn’t have that much of a rivalry in the years they were both in the American League.

 

I don’t look at this game like it is a battle between Green Bay and Minnesota or Kansas City and Oakland.  It’s just another key game played on primetime, national television.

 

My immediate impulse is to play the Over in any NBC Sunday night game.  I am a little bit on the fence in this one, but in the end, I think we can win by teasing the Over. 

 

Washington’s offense has nearly disappeared in the last month.  The Redskins have scored just 43 total points in their last four games and only 99 points in their last seven games.  Baltimore’s defense gives up just 15.8 points per game.  I believe the Ravens can hold Washington to 10 points or even less in this game.  Let’s say, the Redskins score just seven points.  All Baltimore would have to do to help us win a 13-point teaser would be to score 16 points.  The Ravens have won six of seven games, and in those six wins, they have averaged 34 points per game.  ‘Nuf Ced.

 

 

Tampa Bay (9-3-0) at Carolina (9-3-0)

Time:           8:30PM EST Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Clear, light wind, temperature falling from the low 40’s to the upper 30’s

 

PiRate:                Tossup 

Mean:                  Tossup

Bias:                    Carolina by 1

Vegas:                Carolina by 3

Ov/Un:               38, 38.5

100 Sims:           Carolina 52  Tampa Bay 48

Avg Sim Score:  Carolina 26.8  Tampa Bay 26.3

Outlier 1a Sim:  Carolina 31  Tampa Bay 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Tampa Bay 24  Carolina 12

 

Strategy:            Over 28 in a 10-point teaser, Over 25 in a 13-point teaser

This just might be the best Monday night game of the season.  To the winner goes first place in the NFC South and an almost certain trip to the playoffs.  The loser will still be very much in the wildcard hunt, but the winner will be at home for the first playoff game and should get a bye, while the loser will have to play on the road and play the first week.

 

Jake Delhomme has returned to the form that he had when he led the Panthers to the Super Bowl.  He will be ready to make amends for the toilet bowl showing his team displayed in Tampa in the first meeting of these teams.  I expect the Panthers to score early and often in this game.  They could put it out of reach if the Bucs are not ready defensively.

 

Could Tampa not be ready on the stop side?  Rumors have been spreading like wildfire that famed defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin may be leaving the Bucs to join his son Lane’s staff at the University of Tennessee.  Monte is an old, grizzled veteran, and I don’t expect anything but a 100% effort from him.  His players are another story.  They could be affected by the news. 

 

I am going with Carolina to even the score and win this game by more than a touchdown.  However, my only advisable plays here are the good ole teasers.  As with all Monday night games, I’m going with the Over in both 10 and 13-point teasers.

 

 

Yuck, Part 2!!!

 

If you read this far the last two weeks, and you have made it this far this week, then you must be either my wife, dad, brother, brother-in-law, or close friend.  The last two weeks were stinkers.  I thought for sure I would recover from the 2-8-1 debacle of two weeks ago.  4-17-0 is the type of successful recovery that we see in government bailouts.  I’ll need someone to funnel me 8+ trillion bucks to an offshore account if I keep picking games this poorly.

 

This week, I am playing much more conservatively.  I have been looking to see what has worked this year, and it has been teasers involving totals and not sides.  So, that’s where I will be concentrating my efforts.

 

For the season, the record against the spread has fallen to 89-73-7, dropping me under 60% (54.9%) for the first time.  It’s time to start the recovery for real, and I’m looking at those totals this week.

 

Here are my wagers for week 14 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):

 

1. 10-point teaser

San Diego & Oakland Over 32

Indianapolis & Cincinnati Over 31½

New York Giants & Philadelphia Over 33

 

2. 10-point teaser

New Orleans & Atlanta Over 41

Buffalo & Miami Over 32

Carolina & Tampa Bay Over 28

 

3. 13-point teaser

San Diego & Oakland Over 29

Indianapolis & Cincinnati Over 28½

Chicago & Jacksonville Over 26½

Green Bay & Houston Over 34½

 

4. 13-point teaser

Tennessee & Cleveland Over 24½

Minnesota & Detroit Over 32

Baltimore & Washington Over 22½

NY Giants & Philadelphia Over 30

 

5. 13-point teaser

New Orleans & Atlanta Over 38

NY Jets & San Francisco Over 31

Buffalo & Miami Over 29

Denver & Kansas City Over 35

 

6. 13-point teaser

Arizona & St. Louis Under 61½

Pittsburgh & Dallas Over 27

New England & Seattle Over 30

Carolina & Tampa Bay Over 25

 

7. 13-point teaser

Indianapolis -½ vs. Cincinnati

Cleveland +28 vs. Tennessee

Denver +5 vs. Kansas City

Minnesota +5½ vs. Detroit 

 

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

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December 1, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation: Week 13–December 1, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation League: Week 13-December 1, 2008

 

The Pro Football Computer Simulation League for 2008 uses a fantastic season from the past between 1981 and 2007 for each of the 32 current NFL Franchises.  It uses the actual 2008 NFL schedule and then simulates games between the past great teams.  Last year’s simulation involved teams from 1960 to 1979.  The 1967 Oakland Raiders edged the 1968 Dallas Cowboys in the Simper Bowl.

 

Here are the results of this week’s games:

 

2000 Tennessee Titans  24  1991 Detroit Lions  6

Jevon Kearse picked up two sacks and Frank Wycheck caught 5 passes for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns, as the Titans spoiled Thanksgiving for Detroit fans. 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1991 Det

0

3

3

0

 

6

2000 Ten

0

10

7

7

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Det

Stat

Ten

 

 

 

 

11

FD

17

 

 

 

 

28-92

Rush-Yds

38-147

 

 

 

 

144

Pass Yds

168

 

 

 

 

13-23-1

Passes

15-25-0

 

 

 

 

3-19

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

7-47.3

Punt

5-43.6

 

 

 

 

2-11

PR

4-67

 

 

 

 

6-64

Pen

4-25

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

54

Play

63

 

 

 

 

217

Tot Yds

315

 

 

 

1992 Dallas Cowboys  27  2005 Seattle Seahawks  20

Emmitt Smith rushed for 136 yards on 22 carries and scored the game-clinching touchdown, and the Cowboys’ defense stopped Seattle on downs late in the game at the Dallas 28 yard line.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1992 Dal

7

10

10

0

 

27

2005 Sea

7

3

3

7

 

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dal

Stat

Sea

 

 

 

 

19

FD

15

 

 

 

 

41-196

Rush-Yds

31-87

 

 

 

 

174

Pass Yds

193

 

 

 

 

15-25-0

Passes

16-28-2

 

 

 

 

1-6

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

4-41.0

Punt

5-41.8

 

 

 

 

2-29

PR

2-17

 

 

 

 

6-45

Pen

8-87

 

 

 

 

2-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

67

Play

60

 

 

 

 

364

Tot Yds

273

 

 

 

2004 Philadelphia Eagles  27  1998 Arizona Cardinals  7

Terrell Owens caught 5 passes for 114 yards and a touchdown, and the Eagles’ defense forced three turnovers, as Philadelphia cruised to an easy win.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2004 Phi

14

7

3

3

 

27

1998 Ari

0

0

0

7

 

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Phi

Stat

Ari

 

 

 

 

20

FD

14

 

 

 

 

38-114

Rush-Yds

21-55

 

 

 

 

266

Pass Yds

168

 

 

 

 

19-32-0

Passes

17-36-2

 

 

 

 

1-8

Sacks

3-21

 

 

 

 

4-43.3

Punt

6-34.3

 

 

 

 

2-14

PR

1-7

 

 

 

 

3-20

Pen

5-45

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

71

Play

60

 

 

 

 

372

Tot Yds

202

 

 

 

 

1998 New York Jets  25  1998 Denver Broncos  24

Vinny Testaverde threw touchdown passes of 19 and 23 yards to Keyshawn Johnson and Bryan Cox sacked John Elway for a safety as the Jets upset the Broncos at the Meadowlands.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 NYJ

9

6

10

0

 

25

1998 Den

3

7

14

0

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NYJ

Stat

Den

 

 

 

 

16

FD

17

 

 

 

 

42-163

Rush-Yds

25-103

 

 

 

 

152

Pass Yds

214

 

 

 

 

14-24-0

Passes

17-31-1

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

1-9

 

 

 

 

5-44.4

Punt

5-40.4

 

 

 

 

2-9

PR

1-12

 

 

 

 

5-39

Pen

6-55

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

66

Play

57

 

 

 

 

315

Tot Yds

308

 

 

 

1984 Miami Dolphins  45  1999 St. Louis Rams  42 OT

Dan Marino threw 5 touchdown passes including a 42-yard bomb to Mark Clayton in the final minutes of regulation to force overtime.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1999 Stl

7

14

14

7

0

42

1984 Mia

7

7

14

14

3

45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stl

Stat

Mia

 

 

 

 

26

FD

27

 

 

 

 

31-127

Rush-Yds

29-88

 

 

 

 

365

Pass Yds

401

 

 

 

 

24-39-1

Passes

29-52-1

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

1-5

 

 

 

 

3-41.3

Punt

3-47.7

 

 

 

 

1-11

PR

1-(-1)

 

 

 

 

4-42

Pen

6-40

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

71

Play

82

 

 

 

 

485

Tot Yds

484

 

 

 

 

1991 Washington Redskins  17  1986 New York Giants  13

Earnest Byner’s 4-yard TD run with 2:11 to play in the game provided the Redskins with the winning points in a game played with first place on the line in the NFC East.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1991 Was

3

7

0

7

 

17

1986 NYG

3

3

7

0

 

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Was

Stat

NYG

 

 

 

 

16

FD

15

 

 

 

 

39-143

Rush-Yds

28-77

 

 

 

 

158

Pass Yds

224

 

 

 

 

14-23-1

Passes

14-26-1

 

 

 

 

2-11

Sacks

1-8

 

 

 

 

6-40.3

Punt

8-42.0

 

 

 

 

5-41

PR

3-23

 

 

 

 

4-25

Pen

4-30

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

3-1

 

 

 

 

64

Play

55

 

 

 

 

290

Tot Yds

293

 

 

 

 

1987 New Orleans Saints  19  2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers  16

Mel Gray returned a fourth quarter punt 42 yards to set up the Saints at the Tampa Bay 31 yard line.  Six plays later Bobby Hebert used a QB sneak to score from inside the 1 yard line with 0:13 to play.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2002 TB

3

7

3

3

 

16

1987 NO

7

5

0

7

 

19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TB

Stat

NO

 

 

 

 

16

FD

16

 

 

 

 

38-149

Rush-Yds

26-96

 

 

 

 

157

Pass Yds

222

 

 

 

 

13-21-0

Passes

17-29-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-12

 

 

 

 

9-42.6

Punt

7-40.3

 

 

 

 

4-35

PR

5-102

 

 

 

 

5-50

Pen

4-31

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

59

Play

57

 

 

 

 

306

Tot Yds

306

 

 

 

 

2005 Indianapolis Colts  41  1987 Cleveland Browns  17

Edgerrin James rushed for 119 yards and caught 3 passes for 35 yards and a score, and Marvin Harrison hauled in 7 passes for 113 yards and 3 touchdowns.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1987 Cle

7

0

10

0

 

17

2005 Ind

14

13

14

0

 

41

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cle

Stat

Ind

 

 

 

 

12

FD

23

 

 

 

 

18-55

Rush-Yds

39-181

 

 

 

 

174

Pass Yds

285

 

 

 

 

13-28-3

Passes

19-32-0

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

1-6

 

 

 

 

8-42.1

Punt

4-43.8

 

 

 

 

3-45

PR

4-35

 

 

 

 

5-35

Pen

4-30

 

 

 

 

1-1

Fum

3-1

 

 

 

 

47

Play

72

 

 

 

 

222

Tot Yds

460

 

 

 

 

1990 Buffalo Bills  30  1984 San Francisco 49ers  24

Thurman Thomas rushed 29 times for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The Bills’ defense forced Joe Montana into 2 interceptions and a fumble on a QB sack.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1990 Buf

14

10

3

3

 

30

1984 SF

7

7

3

7

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buf

Stat

SF

 

 

 

 

22

FD

21

 

 

 

 

34-216

Rush-Yds

30-122

 

 

 

 

247

Pass Yds

211

 

 

 

 

19-31-1

Passes

19-34-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-13

 

 

 

 

3-46.3

Punt

5-42.4

 

 

 

 

2-19

PR

1-11

 

 

 

 

4-25

Pen

7-50

 

 

 

 

1-1

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

65

Play

66

 

 

 

 

463

Tot Yds

320

 

 

 

 

1981 Cincinnati Bengals  13  2000 Baltimore Ravens  10

Pete Johnson’s 2 yard touchdown run in the 3rd quarter was set up by Ross Browner’s 33 yard fumble return.  The Bengals’ defense stopped the Baltimore running game.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1981 Cin

3

3

7

0

 

13

2000 Bal

7

0

3

0

 

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cin

Stat

Bal

 

 

 

 

18

FD

13

 

 

 

 

37-136

Rush-Yds

25-85

 

 

 

 

153

Pass Yds

142

 

 

 

 

12-25-1

Passes

13-28-0

 

 

 

 

2-19

Sacks

2-15

 

 

 

 

9-40.2

Punt

8-36.9

 

 

 

 

1-5

PR

4-51

 

 

 

 

4-20

Pen

11-102

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

64

Play

55

 

 

 

 

270

Tot Yds

212

 

 

 

 

1996 Green Bay Packers  34  1996 Carolina Panthers  13

Brett Favre completed a 74 yard TD pass to Don Beebe and a 58 yard TD pass to Antonio Freeman, as the Packers won a rematch of the 1996 NFC Championship Game.  Green Bay won that real game 30-13.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1996 GB

10

10

7

7

 

34

1996 Car

0

3

3

7

 

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GB

Stat

Car

 

 

 

 

19

FD

14

 

 

 

 

41-156

Rush-Yds

17-45

 

 

 

 

269

Pass Yds

220

 

 

 

 

14-25-0

Passes

19-34-3

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

1-8

 

 

 

 

6-45.5

Punt

7-41.4

 

 

 

 

4-53

PR

2-17

 

 

 

 

5-33

Pen

4-35

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

66

Play

52

 

 

 

 

425

Tot Yds

257

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1998 Atlanta Falcons  21  2006 San Diego Chargers  20

Jamal Anderson rushed for 148 yards and 3 touchdowns to give the Falcons all the points they needed.  Atlanta stays in contention in the NFC South, while San Diego falls two games back in the AFC West.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2006 SD

0

6

0

14

 

20

1998 Atl

7

7

7

0

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SD

Stat

Atl

 

 

 

 

16

FD

17

 

 

 

 

31-116

Rush-Yds

42-192

 

 

 

 

183

Pass Yds

139

 

 

 

 

16-29-1

Passes

11-19-0

 

 

 

 

2-13

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

6-43.2

Punt

6-42.0

 

 

 

 

3-25

PR

2-24

 

 

 

 

5-35

Pen

5-35

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-0

 

 

 

 

62

Play

62

 

 

 

 

286

Tot Yds

324

 

 

 

2007 New England Patriots  38  2005 Pittsburgh Steelers  16

Randy Moss grabbed 5 passes for 141 yards and 2 TDs.  He took one quick screen at the line of scrimmage and ran 58 yards after the catch.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2007 NE

17

7

7

7

 

38

2005 Pit

3

0

6

7

 

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NE

Stat

Pit

 

 

 

 

18

FD

19

 

 

 

 

25-103

Rush-Yds

35-147

 

 

 

 

296

Pass Yds

179

 

 

 

 

21-33-0

Passes

14-27-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

3-23

 

 

 

 

3-47.0

Punt

6-41.8

 

 

 

 

3-43

PR

0-0

 

 

 

 

5-40

Pen

6-48

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

58

Play

65

 

 

 

 

399

Tot Yds

303

 

 

 

2003 Kansas City Chiefs  27  2000 Oakland Raiders  21

Trent Green rushed for 1 TD and passed for 2 others as the Chiefs won for just the third time this season.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2000 Oak

7

14

0

0

 

21

2003 KC

3

10

0

14

 

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oak

Stat

KC

 

 

 

 

15

FD

21

 

 

 

 

22-90

Rush-Yds

28-95

 

 

 

 

177

Pass Yds

343

 

 

 

 

15-26-1

Passes

26-45-1

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

1-6

 

 

 

 

6-45.8

Punt

4-40.8

 

 

 

 

2-67

PR

3-44

 

 

 

 

8-80

Pen

4-36

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

49

Play

74

 

 

 

 

260

Tot Yds

432

 

 

 

 

1998 Minnesota Vikings  21  1985 Chicago Bears  17

The 1998 Vikings proved they belong in the playoff chase as they moved in to a tie for second just one game behind Green Bay in the black and blue division.  Chicago had the ball at the Minnesota 6 yard line on 2nd & 1 late in the game.  The Bears were unable to score and turned the ball over on downs at the Viking 2 yard line.  Jimmy Hitchcock’s 56 yard interception return on the first play of the 4th quarter proved to be the winning score.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Min

0

7

7

7

 

21

1985 Chi

7

3

7

0

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Min

Stat

Chi

 

 

 

 

14

FD

17

 

 

 

 

21-57

Rush-Yds

42-159

 

 

 

 

231

Pass Yds

147

 

 

 

 

16-28-2

Passes

13-24-2

 

 

 

 

3-17

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

7-46.6

Punt

5-44.4

 

 

 

 

3-22

PR

2-19

 

 

 

 

5-30

Pen

7-48

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

52

Play

67

 

 

 

 

271

Tot Yds

299

 

 

 

 

2007 Houston Texans  31  1999 Jacksonville Jaguars  27

Andre Davis returned a kickoff 102 yards for the winning touchdown after Jacksonville had taken a 27-24 lead.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2007 Hou

0

17

7

7

 

31

1999 Jac

3

3

14

7

 

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hou

Stat

Jac

 

 

 

 

19

FD

17

 

 

 

 

21-69

Rush-Yds

37-141

 

 

 

 

308

Pass Yds

171

 

 

 

 

25-43-2

Passes

15-26-1

 

 

 

 

4-25

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

4-41.8

Punt

3-42.3

 

 

 

 

1-11

PR

2-17

 

 

 

 

5-39

Pen

6-45

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

68

Play

64

 

 

 

 

352

Tot Yds

305

 

 

 

Current Standings

 

Pro Football Computer Simulation League

National Football Conference

East Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1991 Washington Redskins

8

4

0

246

169

104.3

1992 Dallas Cowboys

7

5

0

247

254

99.2

1986 New York Giants

6

6

0

191

161

101.3

2004 Philadelphia Eagles

4

8

0

194

216

97.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1985 Chicago Bears

9

3

0

248

171

108.5

1996 Green Bay Packers

8

4

0

362

198

115.1

1998 Minnesota Vikings

8

4

0

329

247

109.5

1991 Detroit Lions

2

10

0

196

310

94.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7

5

0

230

199

102.8

1987 New Orleans Saints

6

6

0

245

228

102.6

1998 Atlanta Falcons

6

6

0

223

298

95.3

1996 Carolina Panthers

5

7

0

239

292

96.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1999 St. Louis Rams

9

3

0

338

281

103.6

1984 San Francisco 49ers

7

5

0

306

220

105.4

2005 Seattle Seahawks

5

7

0

223

307

93.9

1998 Arizona Cardinals

2

10

0

164

328

87.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

American Football Conference

East Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2007 New England Patriots

8

4

0

393

275

107.7

1990 Buffalo Bills

7

5

0

325

260

103.7

1998 New York Jets

6

6

0

248

293

96.5

1984 Miami Dolphins

4

8

0

322

391

93.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2000 Baltimore Ravens

9

3

0

164

160

98.1

1981 Cincinnati Bengals

6

6

0

219

222

97.5

1987 Cleveland Browns

4

8

0

189

281

92.2

2005 Pittsburgh Steelers

2

10

0

178

245

94.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2000 Tennessee Titans

10

2

0

279

118

112.4

1999 Jacksonville Jaguars

5

7

0

229

250

100.2

2005 Indianapolis Colts

5

7

0

274

305

99.4

2007 Houston Texans

4

8

0

257

348

93.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1998 Denver Broncos

9

3

0

355

251

106.5

2006 San Diego Chargers

7

5

0

287

251

101.5

2000 Oakland Raiders

4

8

0

236

284

95.2

2003 Kansas City Chiefs

3

9

0

265

395

90.1

 

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