The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 6, 2021

Super Bowl Special Parlay

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:37 pm

The PiRate Ratings chose not to issue any picks during the college bowl season and playoffs nor with the NFL Playoffs. With just one football game remaining this season, there is but one potential parlay remaining.

Normally, we lay off the Super Bowl entirely. It is like betting the Kentucky Derby; there are much better propositions in horse racing, namely in claiming and allowance races.

The PiRates only issue picks against the spread for fun and entertainment. We never wager any real money on games, and we highly advise you not to ever wager money based on what you read here. A few years ago, we had a professional “sharp” who has turned some mighty steep profits over the years pick games against four other “squares,” including two very wise females. The sharp didn’t win the competition. No, the female flight attendant won with ease. Her method was basically looking online at the public and picking games where the public was heavy on one side of a game. She went the opposite way and won about 60% of the games she wagered.

In all the years we participated in our fun wagers, only twice did we ever finish with a success north of 60%. Buckeye Michelle has retired from wagering on games just for fun, and we don’t have the queen of street smarts helping out these days.

What we have left in the tank this year is one final parlay. We are going with a thought that in recent years, the Super Bowls have been tightly battled with low margins and totals in the average range, not to different from the spread and total line. By playing a 4-team, 13-point teaser at -140 at most books but at -130 if you can find it, you are allowed to move pointspreads and/or totals by 13 points in your favor. In other words if Team A is favored by 9 1/2 points over Team B, a 13-point teaser would allow you to move the line 13 points in either direction. Now, Team A would go from a 9 1/2 point favorite to a 3 1/2 point underdog. Or, Team B would go from a 9 1/2 point underdog to a 22 1/2 point underdog.

There is but one game left, and to play a 13-point teaser, we need four different wagers. By wagering on both sides of the spread and both sides of the total, there are four different wager choices.

As of Saturday night, February 6, the line is Kansas City -3, and the total is 56 points.

Here is the possible 4-game, 13-point teaser.

Kansas City +10

Tampa Bay +16

Over 43

Under 69

Our expectation in this game is that the winner will win by no more than eight points, and the game might be a tad lower scoring than expected, but not lower than 43 points which is a critical total line value. If we had to guess a score in this game it would be 31-27 with a 55% chance that Kansas City will win its second Super Bowl in a row and a 45% chance that Tom Brady will become the Babe Ruth of football.

Enjoy the game. The PiRate Ratings hope you have rent money on Monday, so please don’t wager this game based on what we have published.

December 24, 2020

PiRate Picks for December 24-28, 2020

All NFL This Week

A minor profit last week led us to a conclusion. In December, our NFL picks have been somewhat more successful than our college picks. The Virus has added an intangible to game outcomes at the college level, while only mildly affecting NFL games. Additionally, once students left schools and finished their semesters virtually at home, the college football players were left isolated on little islands. Rather than desire to play meaningless bowl games for a little compensation of bowl bling, many desired to spend the Holidays at home with family and friends. Other than the Fiesta Bowl, where all players will receive PS5’s, maybe a better prize in their eyes than anything the FBS Playoffs can offer.

The NFL is a totally different story. Week 16 is usually the most crucial week of the regular season. The best teams usually need one more win to secure the playoff spot they will secure or make the playoffs. The eliminated teams begin to experiment with roster changes. The worst teams may sabotage their chances to win meaningless games at the end of the season, especially when there is a generational superstar ready to become the next John Elway.

Before you read this and say, “this will be an easy week!” realize something else. Those clever folks in Nevada with all the positive revenue streams know this bit of information and have adequately padded the spreads to reflect this information.

So, in the end, the spreads are about as accurate in Week 16 as they are in Week 6. And, for our purposes, understanding that the numbers themselves are more important than the names attached to those numbers, we are issuing selections based on trying to “steal” an extra couple of percentage points in our favor. That small gain basically removes the vigorish that the books have. It still boils down to a 50-50 wager, so it is still highly speculative.

Our Christmas gift to you is knowledge. That knowledge is in our case an expert knowledge. Our expertise is knowing that we don’t know enough for you to take these selections and wager real money on the picks. This is an experiment in mathematics to be read for enjoyment and maybe to understand that without real inside information, none of us non-sharps can consistently pick winning selections.

As an FYI, the State of Tennessee legalized sports betting on November 1 of this year. According to Legal Sports Report, in the first 30 days, the citizens of the Volunteer State volunteered a record $131.4 million to the state’s four authorized sports books. Four more sports books, including the giant William Hill, will commence operations in Tennessee in 2021. These companies vacuum up money quickly, as a large majority of their customers get poor slowly. The state is very conservative, and the overwhelming majority disapprove of any tax, yet they willingly agree to pay the state exorbitant taxes in the way of gambling. Try showing this to an average sports bettor, and he or she will laugh at you, telling you that they can win money unlike when they pay taxes. Yet, if you look at their accounts, very few show a profit. We found one person willing to “experiment” for one calendar year. He usually allots himself $2,000 to play during the football season, and in most years, that two grand is gone by Thanksgiving. At the end of 2019, we convinced him to open an account with a broker and deposit the $2,000 and not bet for the 2020-2021 football season. When the Virus outbreak apparently doomed all sports for the year in March, he was able to stick to his convictions, thinking there would be no games to bet that money and lose. Simply reading a few periodicals on value investing, he quickly discovered an equal love for “wagering” on corporations in a sport where the bettor investor has the advantage.

He didn’t lose all his money by Thanksgiving. In fact, by the time he sat down to enjoy his moist and juicy turkey, his investment had already returned close to 18%. As 2020 limps to the finish line, his original $2,000 investment is now pushing $2,400. He doesn’t plan on withdrawing the money or placing the next $2,000 in one of the sports books. If you learn anything from this site, let it be this: If you have a couple decades or more remaining in your pre-retirement lives, or even if you have reached retirement age and figure on sticking around for another score or so, a buy and hold strategy in high-quality value stocks with a long history of positive earnings and dividends is going to make you a lot wealthier than betting on State to beat Tech by 7 1/2 points.

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night. Here are our selections for the week.

1. NFL 6 1/2 Point Teaser+160
SelectionOpponentSpread
MiamiLas Vegas+6.5
BuffaloNew England-0.5
New OrleansMinnesota-0.5


2. NFL 7 Point Teaser-130
SelectionOpponentSpread
Tampa BayDetroit-2.5
ClevelandN.Y. Jets-2.5


3. 7 Point Teaser-130
SelectionOpponentSpread
HoustonCincinnati-0.5
ChicagoJacksonville-0.5


4. 10 Point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
Kansas CityAtlanta-0.5
IndianapolisPittsburgh+8
BaltimoreN.Y. Giants-1


5. 10- Point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
CarolinaWashington+12
LA RamsSeattle+11
DallasPhiladelphia+12.5

December 18, 2020

PiRate Picks for December 18-21, 2020

A General Malaise

December in the sports wagering world has been about as sickly as the nation and world as a whole, but unfortunately, Pfizer and Moderna are not going to issue sports wagering vaccines to turn losers into winners.

How crazy have things been lately? Look at the most incredible Monday Night Football game in the 51 year history of the event. Baltimore was a 3 1/2 point favorite over Cleveland, and the Ravens led the Browns by three points after a brilliant drive that led to a long field goal. The Browns had one final play to hope for a miracle touchdown or to hope Baltimore committed a defensive 15-yard penalty that would lead to an untimed down and possible field goal to force overtime.

You’ve no doubt seen the dozen lateral play. Unless a large marching band is on the field, the play doesn’t work, because the offense needs a giant tuba player to set an important screen. The 99% of the other times, there are a dozen or so laterals that are fun to watch for 20-30 seconds. The play ends, and the game is over.

Well, this time it was different for the first time in another way. Cleveland ran out of real estate, and the last lateral led to a safety, making the final score a five-point spread. Unlike when a game outcome changes at the end when a team chooses to run the clock play one foot from scoring a touchdown that would change the margin winner or the total, this was totally different. 9,999 times out of 10,000, that part of the wagering public that was already counting their winnings with Cleveland covering, would have actually got those winnings. This was that one other time. Millions and millions of dollars changed on that one crazy play. Local sports talk radio in a state with legalized wagering took time out from coaching search speculation to talk with representatives of MGM and Fan Duel to get the juicy details.

As you know, we at the PiRate Ratings never wager real money on our selections and always recommend that you do the same if you are relying on our selections as real advice. We do this just for the fun of it. In past years, we have enjoyed some spectacular imaginary seasons. We’ve had a couple clinkers as well. This year, we had an imaginary profit entering Thanksgiving, but the last three weeks have seen just enough losses turn the profit to a minor loss for the season. And, unlike the one time Cleveland-Baltimore deal, we have seen our last selection of the week lose after two-thirds of the parlay had won. That last third has done us in. This past week, it was the Giants-Cardinals game. The Giants did us in the week before with the upset win at Seattle. On Thanksgiving, Dallas and Washington couldn’t get their offenses rolling enough.

This week, we joked among ourselves (only crazies like us would laugh at this), wondering if we should change the order of our selections, so that the final NFL game wouldn’t spoil the final third of a parlay. But, then we figured it would only infect the entire card. So, we continue to disbelieve the voodoo that somebody has been doing so well. We’ll call that nemesis, “The Wizard of Laterals.” The talisman that keeps him at bay is “The Gold Tuba.”

Here are this week’s selections. Remember, these are for entertainment purposes only, and we urge you not to wager real money on what you read, even if it’s your Christmas bonus. Save that money to pay for the expensive food on that diet you will begin in two weeks.

Dec 18-21
1. College 6 1/2 point Teaser-120
SelectionOpponentSpread
OklahomaIowa St.+1
Ohio St.Northwestern-13 1/2

2. College 10-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
UtahWashington St.– 1/2
Air ForceArmy+7 1/2
Ole MissLSU+7 1/2

3. College 10-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
MissouriMississippi St.+8 1/2
ClemsonNotre Dame– 1/2
MinnesotaWisconsin+22 1/2

4. College 10-point Teaser
SelectionOpponentSpread
Penn St.Illinois-5 1/2
AlabamaFlorida-7
CincinnatiTulsa-4 1/2

5. College Money Line Parlay+138.40
Must WinOpponentSpread
BuffaloBall St.
USCOregon+138.40
Texas A&MTennessee

6. College Money Line Parlay+187.04
Must WinOpponentSpread
MarshallUAB
OklahomaIowa St.+187.04
ClemsonNotre Dame

7. NFL 6-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
Green BayCarolina-2
IndianapolisHouston-1 1/2

8. NFL 6-point Teaser-110
SelectionOpponentSpread
TennesseeDetroit-6
New EnglandMiami+7 1/2

9. NFL 6 1/2-point Teaser-120
SelectionOpponentSpread
Kansas CityNew Orleans+3 1/2
PittsburghCincinnati-6 1/2

10. NFL Money Line Parlay+134.81
Must WinOpponentSpread
Green BayCarolina
TennesseeDetroit+134.81
Kansas CityNew Orleans

11. NFL Money Line Parlay+148.28
Must WinOpponentSpread
IndianapolisHouston
ArizonaPhiladelphia+148.28
BuffaloDenver

December 4, 2020

PiRate Picks for December 4-7, 2020

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:22 am

A Day Late — Hopefully Not A Dollar Short

We are publishing our most popular weekly feature at the PiRate Ratings a day later than normal. Four weeks of issuing some interesting parlays that we had a lot of faith in as winners only to see the games cancel the day that we published them forced us to take an extra 24 hours to try to eliminate the chances that we would see five parlays become void just after putting them out on this forum. Additionally, we tried to avoid games that involved teams that have forewarned that even as late as Friday afternoon, they could decide not to play. Also, there is the case of one team that is in danger of not having enough scholarship players remaining. Their choices would be to fold up operations for the year or play under the 53-man (or in this case 53-man and woman) limit.

Last week, we broke even, which is no fun. Our winning week was just a minute from being guaranteed, until the Baltimore Ravens scored at the end to make that game a push. It happens.

This week, we are stressing money line parlays paying off at better than even money odds. November was very kind to us in these plays, as we made a big fat profit on these better than +100 odds games. We are only going with one NFL selection, but in our statistical minds, it is our best parlay of the entire season–kiss of death!

Before looking at our selections for the week, please remember, that we have lost no money this year or any past year when issuing these selections, because we NEVER wager a penny on them. All of our picks are made with imaginary money at an imaginary book. We do know from your feedback that many of you actually use this site for wagering advice, but we don’t understand why. If you want to throw away hard-earned money because of something you read here, why not just donate that amount to a worthy charity. Our favorite charity with the five lasses that help me here on the PiRate ship is “Save A Fox” in Faribault, Minnesota: https://www.saveafox.org/.

Enjoy the selections, and the way to enjoy them is by keeping your money in your wallet.

College Money Line Parlays
1. 2-teams at +107.96
Must WinOpponentOdds
Miami (Fla.)Duke+107.96
MissouriArkansas

2. 3-teams at +145.28
Must WinOpponentOdds
Western Mich.Eastern Mich.
WashingtonStanford;+145.28
CincinnatiTulsa

3. 2-teams at +173.41
Must WinOpponentOdds
Texas A&MAuburn+173.41
Central Mich.Ball St.

4. 3-teams at +124.20 CANCELLED!
Must WinOpponentOdds
KentuckyS. Carolina
Buffalo (BU was en route to Ohio)Ohio+124.20
Iowa St.West Va.

5. 3-teams at +153.92
Must WinOpponentOdds
ToledoN. Illinois
San Diego St.Colorado St.+153.92
NC St.Georgia Tech

6. College 10-point Teaser at -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
TCUOklahoma St.+11
NebraskaPurdue+11
MemphisTulane+11.5

7. College 10-point Teaser at -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
Fla. AtlanticGa. Southern+12.5
San Jose St.Hawaii+11
OklahomaBaylor-11.5

8. College 10-point Teaser at -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
NevadaFresno St.+3.5
Oregon St.Utah+21.5
USCWashington St.-2.5

9. NFL 10-point Teaser at -110
SelectionOpponentSpread
MinnesotaJacksonvillePk
MiamiCincinnati-1.5
SeattleN.Y. Giants-0.5

November 19, 2020

PiRate Picks for November 19-23, 2020

Another Winning Week But Disappointment At The End

The PiRate Rating selections for last week came with a caveat that we were not as confident about them in the bigger picture compared to the week before when we had a bonanza profitable week. And, with just the Monday Night game to go, we had already guaranteed ourselves another profitable weekend. Monday Night Football left one leg of a parlay alive. New Orleans and Cleveland had already won to set up a potential +162.57 win if the Ravens took care of New England. Alas, Baltimore laid a major egg, and the Patriots pulled the upset that looked everything like the wrong team was favored. So, instead of a major cleaning of the books, we had to settle with a 22.1% profit on our imaginary investments for the week.

If this is your first time, or you come here every week and see this message, make note that the PiRates NEVER wager real money on these, or any other, selections. We are math nerds that know how to pinch our pennies. This is just for fun and all wagers are pretend only. If you feel compelled to donate a large sum of money to the very wealthy sportsbooks, please reconsider and instead send a bit to our favorite charity–The Old PiRates on Rickety Ships Taking On Water Fund.

Because that nasty little virus has wiped out a bunch of our picks the last few weeks, we limited using the same teams in multiple strategies this week, even though three or four games appeared in every possible wagering situation that we like.

Enjoy–You will enjoy much more if you don’t wager these selections.

Date:Nov. 19-23
1. College 6-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentOdds
TulsaTulane-1/2
ArkansasLSU+8 1/2

2. College 6-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentOdds
Appy St.Coastal Car.+11 1/2
Arkansas St.Texas St.Pk

3. College 6 1/2 -point Teaser -120
SelectionOpponentOdds
Air ForceNew Mexico-1/2
UTSASouthern Miss.-2 1/2

4. College 7-point Teaser -130
SelectionOpponentOdds
OregonUCLA-6 1/2
NC St.Liberty+3 1/2

5. College 10-point Teaser -110
Selection *CANCELLED*OpponentOdds
PurdueMinnesota+7 1/2
MarylandMich. St.+4 1/2
NebraskaIllinois-5

6. College 10-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentOdds
RiceNorth Texas+9
Oregon St.California+13 1/2
AlabamaKentucky-20

7. College 10-point Teaser -110 CANCELLED
SelectionOpponentOdds
San Jose St.Fresno St.+7 1/2
AuburnTennessee-1
WashingtonArizona-1 1/2

8. College Money Line Parlay +168.15
Must WinOpponentOdds
OklahomaOklahoma St.+168.15
RiceNorth Texas

9. College Money Line Parlay +139.47
Must WinOpponentOdds
MissouriS. Carolina+139.47
USCUtah

10. College Money Line +152
Must WinOpponentOdds
Oregon St.California+152

11. College Money Line +147
Must WinOpponentOdds
PittsburghVa. Tech+147

12. NFL 6 1/2 point Teaser -120
SelectionOpponentOdds
Kansas CityLas Vegas-1/2
LA RamsTampa Bay+10 1/2

13. NFL 7-point Teaser -130
SelectionOpponentOdds
LA ChargersN.Y. Jets+8 1/2
Green BayIndianapolis-1/2

14. NFL 10-point Teaser -110
SelectionOpponentOdds
AtlantaNew Orleans+15
PittsburghJacksonvillePk
CincinnatiWashington+11 1/2

15. NFL 10-point Teaser -110
TeamTeamTotal
DetroitCarolinaO 39
PhiladelphiaClevelandO 37
BaltimoreTennesseeO 39

16. NFL 10-point Teaser -110
TeamTeamTotal
PittsburghJacksonvilleO 36 1/2
MiamiDenverO 35
LA RamsTampa BayO 38 1/2

November 12, 2020

PiRate Picks for November 12-16, 2020

A Week In The Penthouse Doesn’t Mean To Open The Vault

Last week, when we posted the weekly selections, we hinted that we really liked a lot of picks that seemed to tilt the numbers slightly in our favor, or to be more precise, to overcome the percentage vigorish that the selections had on the other side.

We were correct much more often than incorrect last week, and it resulted in a little fake bonanza in imaginary Vegas Book. We hit on three Money Line Parlays at better than +100 odds, and we hit on three of five 10-point teasers to parlay the selections into a better than 30% profit for the week.

There were other selections that became void after last week’s post was published, as games were called off late due to Covid. Eight games are already off the boards this week as this post publishes, and there is a chance that one or more of this week’s choices will be taken off the board as well. We tried to anticipate which games have the greater chances of being cancelled and left them off this week’s consideration list.

Additionally, we eliminated some teams from consideration due to prior Covid concerns that have left these teams with too many weeks off and too many recovering key players. We only really went with one selection where a college team has played just one game so far–Wisconsin.

Our sentiment is that this week is considerably more difficult to isolate favorable selections. We rely more on the numbers than the actual teams in most of our selections, as Nevada rarely misses on lines this late in the season, even in this dysfunctional 2020 season.

What we have favored this week are the lines that help us move through the highest percentage of key numbers, both in spreads and totals for the teasers. We also used our in-house formula for maximizing money line parlay spreads with our own personal ratings and predicted win percentages.

As usual, please read our disclosure: The PiRates NEVER wager real money on these selections. This is strictly a fun exercise with numbers performed by a bunch of numbers’ nerds that just happened to have all played football, but on the other hand, we have all had concussions from playing football, and sometimes we appear to be a bit punch drunk. So, DON’T blow your Christmas Fund on selections you will see below.

That goes for you, Ms. Buckeye in Florida, who didn’t listen to the warning after reading it a zillion times and went and bet big on the Gators at +150 to beat Georgia outright last week. You won last week, so you are very likely to lose this week if you choose one selection from our list.

Date:Nov. 12-16
College 10-point Teasers @-110

1. SelectionOpponentLine
PurdueNorthwestern+12 1/2
Ole MissS. Carolina-1
OregonWash. St.Pk

2. Selection (CANCELLED)OpponentLine
Coastal Car.Troy– 1/2
Fresno St.Utah St.Pk
Ga. SouthernTexas St.Pk

College Money Line Parlays

3. Must WinOpponentOdds
WisconsinMichigan+118.99
RutgersIllinois

4. Must WinOpponentOdds
W. VirginiaTCU
Ga. SouthernTroy+178.70
Ole MissS. Carolina

5. Must Win CANCELLEDOpponentOdds
UtahUCLA+132.03
IndianaMichigan St.

6. Must Win CANCELLEDOpponentOdds
Arizona St.California+106.90
OregonWash. St.

NFL 10-point Teasers @ -110

7. TeamTeamTotal
TennesseeIndianapolisO38 1/2
ClevelandHoustonO39
New OrleansSan FranciscoO39

8. TeamTeamTotal
DetroitWashingtonO 36 1/2
N.Y. GiantsPhiladelphiaO 34 1/2
MiamiLA ChargersO 38 1/2

NFL Money Line Parlays

9. Must WinOpponentOdds
Tampa BayCarolina+155.57
MiamiLA Chargers

10. Must WinOpponentOdds
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants+138.24
Las VegasDenver

11. Must WinOpponentOdds
New OrleansSan Francisco
BaltimoreNew England+162.57
ClevelandHouston

October 28, 2020

PiRate Picks for October 29-November 2, 2020

Cue-Steve Sabol

This is our annual tradition to publish the fantastic poem written by NFL Films genius Steve Sabol

The Autumn Wind

The Autumn Wind is a pirate
Blustering in from sea,
With a rollicking song, he sweeps along,
Swaggering boisterously.
His face is weather beaten.
He wears a hooded sash,
With a silver hat about his head,
And a bristling black mustache.

He growls as he storms the country,
A villain big and bold.
And the trees all shake and quiver and quake,
As he robs them of their gold.

The Autumn Wind is a raider,
Pillaging just for fun.
He’ll knock you ’round and upside down,
And laugh when he’s conquered and won.

——————————————————————————–

Last week, the Autumn wind might have been a pirate, but it did the PiRates in. It laughed when it conquered and won against our picks. We suffered the second worst week in the history of this column.

For the year, we are now in the red by a small percentage, and quite truthfully, we feel a bit gun-shy this week. The NFL spreads were basically too close to our spreads, or there are too many personnel changes due to injuries and decisions to start new blood.

We are going with 11 selections this week, and 10 of them are college plays. It should be quite obvious by now that you should not even consider using the information here to place actual money on with a sports book. The PiRate Ratings make their selections for purely entertainment purposes only.

Date:10/29-11/2

College Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1. Kansas StWest Va.+4
2. Michigan St.Michigan+24.5
3. Georgia St.Coastal Carolina+3
4. Ole MissVanderbilt-16
5. N. CarolinaVirginia+6.5

10-point Teasers (3-game parlays at -110)
SelectionOpponentLine
6. WyomingHawaii+11
GeorgiaKentucky-5
Wake ForestSyracuse-1

SelectionOpponentLine
7. TempleTulane+14
Central Fla.Houston+7.5
Notre DameGa. Tech-9.5

SelectionOpponentLine
8. Ole MissVanderbilt-6.5
Texas A&MArkansas-2
AlabamaMiss. St.-20.5

Money Line Parlays
Must WinOpponentOdds
9. CincinnatiMemphis+131.99
Okla. St.Texas

Must WinOpponentOdds
10. Boise St.Air Force+153.96
DukeCharlotte
San Jose St.New Mexico
San Diego St.Utah St.

NFL Straight Wager
SelectionOpponentLine
11. CarolinaAtlanta-2

October 22, 2020

PiRate Picks for October 22-26, 2020

Filed under: PiRate Picks_College & Pro — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:55 am

Go Big or Go Home But Make Sure You Don’t Bet Your Mortgage!

Every week, we make sure any newcomers to this site understand that our selections on this weekly edition are made strictly for entertainment purposes only. We highly urge you never to wager real money on the picks you see published at this site. We never wager real money; all of our selections are made with our infinite imaginary bankroll.

That said, we know that there are a number of you reading this that will ignore the warning. That is your mistake, so if you have to cash in a Treasury Bond to cover your losses, don’t get mad at us.

Before we get into this week’s selections, let’s quickly review what happened last week. It wasn’t good. A lot of the profits we had accumulated were returned to the imaginary sports book in the imaginary Nevada. We still show a small imaginary profit for the year, but it is infinitesimal. Additionally, the selections that won were different styles of exotic wagers, while what had been most successful earlier in the year, the straight wagers, didn’t perform well.

This week, we are issuing a season high 18 selections. One might postulate that we are really confident this week and decided to issue a lot of selections. Actually, the reverse is true. We are considerably less confident with this week’s selections. We found several “almost good” possibilities and could not narrow the list down to “best” possibilities, as our internal numbers and the folks in Nevada agreed too often. We hoped to be able to play a bunch of Underdogs in the conferences beginning play, but it is like somebody set the odds based on our ratings. Multiple games with teams playing their openers saw the official line and our ratings agree within one point. Some of these lines originated several points off of our ratings, but by Monday night, they had moved to where our ratings had them. In a way, we love this, as it gives us a shot in the arm to know that our ratings are similar to what the Sharps believe. We do know that a handful of Sharps do follow this site, and we are thankful to some really nice people in the Las Vegas-Henderson area that have reached out to us. So, when does the invitation come to spend a week there in the middle of Winter?

Now, it’s time for this week’s selections. We do not really like playing a lot of favorites, but the underdog numbers just didn’t offer a lot of value. You will see that we are playing some games multiple times in different types of wagers. This leads to feast or famine, and in the past, this has offered us a tiny percentage increase in weeks where one or two games met our internal requirements for straight wager, totals, teasers, and/or money line parlays.

Enjoy, but keep your real money in your bank accounts, unless you already planned to wager on the selections you see here.

Date:10/22-10/26
College Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1. Penn St.Indiana-5.5
2. NavyHouston+14
3. Boston Col.Ga. Tech-3
4. MinnesotaMichigan+3
5. CincinnatiSMU+3
6. Air ForceSan Jose St.-7


7. College 6-point Teaser @ -110
SelectionOpponentLine
OklahomaTCU-0.5
BaylorTexas+15


8. College 6-point Teaser @ -110
SelectionOpponentLine
Penn St.IndianaE
KentuckyMissouri+0.5


9. College 7-point Teaser @ +140
SelectionOpponentLine
AuburnOle Miss+3.5
Okla. St.Iowa St.+3.5
Air ForceS.J. St.E


10. College Money Line Parlay @ +160.60
Must WinOpponentOdds
TulsaFla. Atlantic
OklahomaTCU+160.60
Air ForceS.J. St.


11. College Money Line Parlay @ +169.19
Must WinOpponentOdds
LibertySou. Miss.
Penn St.Indiana+169.19
LSUS. Carolina


NFL Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
12. PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants-4
13. AtlantaDetroit-1
14. DenverKansas City+10


15. NFL 10-point Teaser @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
PhiladelphiaN.Y. GiantsO35
BuffaloN.Y. JetsO35
WashingtonDallasO35


16. NFL 10-point Teaser @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
DenverKansas CityO36
New EnglandSan FranciscoO33.5
LA RamsChicagoO35


17. NFL Money Line Parlay @ +190.94
Must WinOpponentOdds
PhiladelphiaN.Y. Giants
DallasWashington+190.94


18. NFL Money Line Parlay @ +180.33
Must WinOpponentOdds
Green BayHouston
New EnglandSan Francisco+180.33

October 15, 2020

PiRate Picks for October 15-19, 2020

That Virus Changes Everything–Injuries Not So Much!

We had a nice variety of games ready to feature here this week, but then that little tiny virus cancelled two of the games we were ready to play and greatly altered a third, making it unplayable. You can obviously determine the three college games we refer to in the above sentence.

A crucial injury in the NFL might have made you think we would avoid a certain team like the plague, yet we are not only making a selection involving said team, we are making a selection in that team’s favor.

You will also notice that we are playing opposite sides of the same college game this week, going with the underdog against a spread that our ratings indicate is too high, while picking the favorite to win in a money line parlay. It is not a mistake; this was a deliberate choice to hopefully hit an unorthodox middle.

Before you get all gung ho about these selections, remember that we do this only for mathematical (nerdy) fun. We never actually wager real money on these selections, and we highly advise you to refrain from using these selections as advice. This statement is repeated every week, but like people that still text while driving, a group of you will immediately place wagers on these selections to try to receive the same parlay odds.

Before revealing today’s selections, let’s do a little review of last week’s selections and how we are performing year to date with our imaginary bank roll that never runs out of fresh imaginary $100 bills.

Last week, we issued 12 selections and won half of them. It was a profitable week, because we were 3-0 on money line parlays with payouts of +295, +141, and +166.60. At $100 imaginary per wager, we invested $1,200 in nonexistent currency and received $1,470.01 for a proftiable return on investment of 22.5%.

For the year, we are now up 7.94% in the profit column. But, this by no means indicates that we are going to stay in the black for the remainder of the season.

Additionally, the way our selections won last week was 180° different from the way we won in prior weeks. It was straight wagering that was unusually accurate heading into last week’s selections, while the exotic wagers were in the toilet.

Last week, the straight wagers lost a little, while the exotics won big. So, we cannot guess which style of wagers will do better in any one week. Thus, if you choose to pick just one or two of our selections, you are really taking a double gamble with your investment.

Just as this edition was about to publish, word has come out on the Twitterverse that the Atlanta Falcons have just reported a rash of new positives, and their facilities have been closed. We have a selection involving the Falcons, so by the time you see this, the Vegas lines may have changed.

And, we offer our condolences to the family of former NFL player Fred Dean, who passed away as a result of the virus. Let’s hope the biggest loser is the virus, as it is beaten like Georgia Tech over Cumberland.

Here are our selections for this week. Stay well!

Date:10/15-10/19
College Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1. HoustonBYU+5.5
2. KentuckyTennessee+6
3. Florida Intl.CharlotteCancelled


4. Money Line +143.55
Must WinOpponentOdds
SMUTulane
TennesseeKentucky+143.55
Notre DameLouisville


5. Money Line +152.83
Must WinOpponentOdds
Texas A&MMiss. St.
Middle Tenn.North Texas+152.83
N. CarolinaFlorida St.


NFL Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
6. DenverNew England+10
7. DallasArizona+2


8. 10-point Teaser Parlay
TeamTeamOdds
N.Y. GiantsWashingtonO32.5
PhiladelphiaBaltimoreO37.5
MiamiN.Y. JetsO37


9. Money Line Parlay +142.97
Must WinOpponentOdds
MinnesotaAtlanta
PittsburghCleveland+142.97


10. Money Line Parlay +110.23
Must WinOpponentOdds
BaltimorePhiladelphia
IndianapolisCincinnati+110.23
MiamiN.Y. Jets

October 7, 2020

PiRate Picks for October 8-11, 2020

Of Course We See The Obvious!

There is no need to send us any more comments from our sister site informing us about how our straight selections against the spread are tearing it up this year. Remember this: we do not wager real money on these selections. This is just for fun, and coming out with only straight selections against the spread would not be very fun for us or for you the reader. We hope you leave this site with a smile on your face. It can be a happy smile because you enjoyed what we put out. It can be a laugh at our expense as you leave knowing how superior your selection ability is to ours. As long as it’s a smile, we are happy along with you.

That said, we are the first to be totally perplexed as to how we accidentally picked a ton of winners so far against the spread, while our favorite exotic picks have been in the toilet.

All those winning straight selections has raked in no money. All the losing parlays has lost us no money. We don’t wager. You should follow this advice and do the same, or at least use some other advice to make real selections.

For what it is worth, our straight college selections this year are 14-5, and our straight NFL selections are 3-0. The fun picks are 8-17. Yet, we have no more confidence in our straight selections this week than we are in our exotic picks.

Here are the selections we selected this week.

College Straight Wagers
SelectionOpponentLine
1. LouisvilleGa. Tech-4
2. Kansas St.TCU+9
3. Boston CollPitt+6.5
4. Western KyMarshall+7

College Money Lines
Must WinOpponentOdds
5.Kansas St.TCU+295

6. 3-Team Parlay @ +141
Must WinOpponentOdds
ClemsonMiami (Fla.)
CharlotteNorth Texas+141
South CarolinaVanderbilt

7. 3-Team Parlay @ +166.60
Must WinOpponentOdds
HoustonTulane
North CarolinaVa. Tech+166.60
GeorgiaTennessee

8. 3-Team 7-point Teaser Parlay@ +125 Odds
SelectionOpponentLine
VirginiaNC St.-1.5
Florida Intl.Middle Tenn.+3.5
CharlotteNorth Texas+4

NFL Straight Wager
SelectionOpponentLine
9. WashingtonLA Rams+7.5

10. NFL 3-Team 10-point Teaser Parlay @ -110
TeamTeamTotal
Tampa BayChicagoOver 34
PhiladelphiaPittsburghOver 34
IndianapolisClevelandOver 36

11. NFL Money Line Parlay @ +133.53
Must WinOpponentOdds
Tampa BayChicago
San FranciscoMiami+133.53
DallasN.Y. Giants

12. NFL Money Line Parlay @ -102.59
Must WinOpponentOdds
PittsburghPhiladelphia
SeattleMinnesota-102.59
Kansas CityLas Vegas
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