The Pi-Rate Ratings

August 30, 2011

2011 Big Ten Conference Preview

2011 Big Ten Conference Preview

 

Call this conference the “B1G Conference.”  The new logo is about as wacky at the Leaders and Legends Divisions.  Who did Commissioner Jim Delany hire to come up with this new marketing scheme?  Maybe, the same people that told the Fords to build the Edsel?

 

No, this conference is not going to be a big flop.  Unfortunately, as of late, it has not been what it once was.  Ohio State finally beat an SEC team in a bowl last year, but they used players that should not have been eligible.

 

Which brings us to the next topic of conversation—the historically “Big Two” both must break in new head coaches.  Michigan hired Brady Hoke from San Diego State, while Ohio State was forced to elevate Luke Fickell to head coach after Jim Tressel resigned under fire.

 

There are three other new head coaches in the league.  Kevin Wilson, the offensive coordinator at Oklahoma for nine seasons, takes over at Indiana.  Jerry Kill, the former head coach at Northern Illinois, takes over at Minnesota.

 

Of course, the third new head coach is only new to the league and not his team.  Bo Pelini brings the Nebraska Cornhuskers to the league.

 

For the most part, the stronger teams from the top have taken a minor step backwards, while the weaker teams at the bottom have improved a little bit.  It adds up to more parity and less chance of sending a team to the National Championship Game.

 

 

Leaders Division

WISCONSIN

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Wisconsin came up with the big bonanza this summer, when Russell Wilson signed to play in Madison.  Coach Bret Bielema has a passer capable of getting the Badgers back to Pasadena.

 

Wilson completed 58.4% of his passes for 3,563 yards and 28 touchdowns last year.  His interception percentage was a miniscule 1.7% (former QB Scott Tolzien’s was 2.3%).

 

Wilson took a lot of sacks at North Carolina State, but in offensive coordinator Paul Chryst’s offense, he will throw quicker passes.  He may not pass for 275 yards per game like he did in Raleigh, but his completion percentage should head north of 60 this year.

 

Receivers

Nick Toon and Jared Abbrederis do not appear on All-Big Ten watch lists, but they are solid and can deliver the mail.  They combined for 56 receptions and 748 yards with six touchdowns last year.

 

The Badgers are known for developing terrific tight ends.  UW will use many two tight end sets.  Jake Byrne and Jacob Pedersen may not be able to approach the production of graduating tight end Lance Kendricks (team-leading 43 receptions and five scores), but together they may equal his production.  The duo scored touchdowns on 23% of their 13 receptions last year.

 

Running Backs

The Badgers fell four yards short of having three 1,000-yard rushers last year.  Two of the three return this year.  The Badgers could have had another three-headed monster, but one of the heads decided to find a new situation.

 

James White led the Badgers with 1,052 yards at 6.7 yards per attempt.  Montee Ball rushed for 996 yards and 18 touchdowns, while averaging 6.1 yards per rush.  White has more outside speed, but Ball runs with more authority and will be the starter.

 

Bradie Ewing will start at Fullback and supply interference for Ball and White.

 

Offensive Line

The Badgers had the best offensive line in the nation last year, and they still have a top notch blocking quintet, but it will not be as strong as last year.  The two graduating starters were 1st and 3rd Round NFL Draft choices.

 

Center Peter Konz will be flanked by guards Kevin Zeitler and Travis Frederick.  Zeitler has been dealing with an ankle injury.  Josh Oglesby and Ricky Wagner will start at tackle. 

 

The offensive line of 2010 gave up 14 sacks blocked proficiently enough to allow the running game to average 5.5 yards per rush.  Those numbers will be a tad weaker this year, but the Badgers will still be tough offensively.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Three starters return on this side of the trenches.  UW gave up 128 rushing yards per game last year and could equal or better than mark in 2011.

 

Jordan Kohout and Patrick Butrym started at tackle last year and teamed for 50 tackles.  However, Ethan Hemer has unseated Kohout and will start in his place.  Bielema will use a deep rotation, using more than just two-deep.  Louis Nzegwu starts at one end slot. He recorded 46 tackles with 7 ½ stops for loss.  He also knocked away three passes.

 

Linebackers

Chris Borland missed most of 2010 with an injury, and he will reassume the starting position he held in 2009 and the start of last season.  Kevin Claxton will be the new starter on the outside.  He made 24 tackles last year in relief.  Mike Taylor is the returning star of this unit.  He made 58 tackles with eight going for losses.  That performance earned him 2nd Team All-Big Ten honors.

 

Secondary

Two starters are back, and this is the team’s one Achilles’ heel.  Wisconsin gave up almost 200 passing yards per game last year, but against the bowl teams on their schedule, that number climbed to 217.

 

Cornerback Antonio Fenelus was a 1st Team All-Big Ten selection.  He intercepted four passes and was credited with 11 passes defended.  His running mate at the other cornerback position this year is senior Devin Smith.  Smith made 30 tackles in a reserve role last year.

 

Aaron Henry returns to one safety spot.  He had nine passes defended and two interceptions.  Shelton Johnson is the new starter at safety.  He saw limited action and made 15 tackles last year.

 

OTHER

The Badgers lost defensive coordinator Dave Doeren to Northern Illinois when Jerry kill left NIU for arch-rival Minnesota.

 

SUMMARY

Wisconsin was not going to be the highest rated team in this division.  They assumed this position following all the mess at Ohio State.  Their schedule gives them a chance to repeat their performance of last year, but it will not be easy.

 

Their non-conference slate includes games against UNLV, Oregon State, Northern Illinois, and South Dakota, with the NIU game being played at Soldier Field in Chicago.  UW should go 4-0 in those games.

 

Inside the league, the Badgers welcome Nebraska for the Cornhuskers’ first official conference game.  They host Indiana, Purdue, and Penn State as well.  In road action, they visit Michigan State, Ohio State, Minnesota, and Illinois.  This has the look of a 10-win team.

 

 

PENN STATE

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Rob Bolden and Matt McGloin might platoon at this position all year long.  Almost on the eve of the Nittany Lions’ first game, Coach Joe Paterno has yet to make a final decision on which player will start.

 

Bolden had a higher completion percentage last year (58.0% to 54.9% for McGloin, but McGloin averaged more yards per attempt (7.2 to 7.0) and had a better TD/Int ratio (14/9 to 5/7).  Neither player is a spectacular runner.

 

Receivers

Penn State has an excellent collection of receivers, and this unit ranks high in the conference in both talent and depth.  Derek Moye returns to the team after leading the Lions with 53 receptions and eight touchdowns.  He averaged 16.7 yards per catch.

 

Justin Brown is the other wideout.  He caught 33 passes last year and averaged 13.7 yards per reception.  Devon Smith will start in the slot.  As a semi-regular, he grabbed 27 passes last year.

 

Tight end Kevin Haplea started three times and caught three passes.  Shawney Kearsey, Brandon Moseby-Felder, and true freshman Bill Belton will see action here this year.

 

Running Backs

Evan Royster topped 1,000 yards and gained right at five yards per carry last year.  He moved on, and the new feature back will be sophomore Silas Redd.  Redd rushed for 437 yards and two touchdowns and gained 5.7 yards per attempt.  His projected backup is Brandon Beachum.  Penn State routinely comes up with decent running attacks, and this group will find a way to top 150 yards on the ground this season.

 

Offensive Line

While not the strongest offensive line in the league, there is decent depth here.  Three regulars return from 2010, led by tackles Chima Okoli and Quinn Barham.  Guards John Urschel and Johnnie Troutman will flank center Matt Stankiewitch.  Look for slightly better numbers from this group.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Devon Still is solid and close to becoming a star.  The tackle recorded 39 stops with 10 going for losses.  He could become an all-conference pick this year.  Jordan Hill is quick off the ball and a perfect complement for Still at tackle.  He made 36 tackles as a second teamer last year.

 

Jack Crawford and Eric Latimore make a formidable, but not outstanding pair of ends.  Crawford starting seven times; Latimore started three games.  Last year, they combined for 20 tackles and seven for losses.

 

Sean Stanley and DaQuan Jones will make some plays in relief.

 

Linebackers

This unit is not going to be confused for the great 1969 team with Dennis Onkotz and Jack Ham, but the current version is mighty good.

 

Glenn Carson has won a spot in the starting lineup after making a dozen tackles in limited action as a true freshman last year.  Gerald Hodges is a potential all-star.  He started one time and saw action in all others, making 31 tackles.  Michael Mauti was a part-time starter last year, and he finished with 67 tackles and 5 ½ for losses.

 

In reserve, Nate Stupar and Khairi Fortt will see significant amounts of time. 

 

Secondary

This unit is deep and talented.  All four regulars return, and two defensive backs should earn all-conference honors.  Cornerback D’Anton Lynn finished with 75 tackles and seven passes defended.  Hero Back Drew Astorino made 70 tackles with six passes defended.  Both players could appear on a post-season all-star team.

 

The other two starters are cornerback Stephon Morris and safety Nick Sukay, who combined for 68 tackles.  Sukay had three interceptions.

 

OTHER

This is Joe Pa’s 46th year as head coach at Penn State.  Prior to becoming head coach, he was an assistant to Rip Engle from 1950 to 1965.  That makes this his 62nd season coaching at Penn State.  There have been 12 Presidents in that amount of time.

 

SUMMARY

This could be Paterno’s last season, and he has the talent to contend for the division title.  Penn State could be 6-0 in the Big Ten when they close the season at Ohio State and at Wisconsin.  Those will be tough games to play in consecutive weeks, but this schedule could give the Nittany Lions’ young players a chance to mature and gel.

 

Outside of league play, Penn State hosts Indiana State, Alabama, and Eastern Michigan, and plays at Temple.  They will win the three not against the top team in the nation.

 

It all adds up to a 9-10 wins and a probably January bowl.

 

OHIO STATE

OFFENSE

Quarterback

The difference between Terrelle Pryor and Joe Bauserman is about seven to 11 points per game.  Instead of 3,500+ total yards and 31 touchdowns, the Buckeyes get a journeyman senior who has thrown less than 60 passes in three seasons.  Bauserman will probably give way to true freshman Braxton Miller for two or three possessions per game.  Miller was almost as highly recruited as Pryor was four years ago.

 

Receivers

The Buckeyes relied on two breakaway threats last year, and one of them returns for his senior season; however, he is one of the players suspended for the first five games.  DeVier Posey grabbed 53 passes for 848 yards and seven touchdowns.  Helping interim coach Luke Fickell make up for the loss of Dane Sanzenbacher and to fill in for Posey is redshirt freshman Verlon Reed.

 

Corey Brown will start at one wideout.  The sophomore caught just eight passes last year.

 

Others sure to see playing time trying to replace Posey for five games include Devin Smith and true freshman Evan Spencer.

 

Tight end Jake Stoneburner caught 21 passes and will see more balls thrown his way. 

 

Running Backs

Here is another position that will take a hit for the first five games, as leading rusher Dan Herron is on the suspension list.  In his place, OSU will use as many as four backs.  Jordan Hall and Jaamal Berry have experience, as they combined for 436 yards and three touchdowns last year.  Berry has been nursing a hamstring injury and may not be available for the opening game.  Rod Smith and Carlos Hyde could figure into the mix as well.

 

Offensive Line

Tackle Mike Adams is another five-game suspension starter.  Until he is eligible again, Ohio State has two returning starters here.  It helps that one of those two players is perhaps the best offensive lineman in college football.  Center Mike Brewster is the Rimington Award favorite and a reigning 1st team All-American.

 

Marcus Hall and Jack Mewhort are the new starters at guard.  Both were highly-rated in their recruiting class.  Andrew Norwell replaces Adams, while J. B. Shugarts will start at the vacant tackle position.  This is still a decent offensive line without Adams, and once he comes back, it will be excellent.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

At first, the loss of end Solomon Thomas for five games did not seem like a big loss, since he was a backup to Nathan Williams.  Then, Williams began missing practice-after-practice with an undisclosed reason. 

 

It looks like true freshman Michael Bennett could start at end along with John Simon, while Garrett Goebel and Johnathan Hankins start at tackle.  Simon is the only experienced player in this quartet.  He made 41 tackles with 4 ½ sacks and 9 ½ stops for loss.  This unit, while good, is not up to recent Ohio State standards and will give up more than 100 rushing yards per game for just the second time in seven years.

 

Linebackers

Andrew Sweat, Storm Klein, and Etienne Sabino make an athletic trio, although not very experienced.  Sweat started a majority of the games last year and registered 41 tackles.  Klein made 18 tackles in a reserve role, while Sabino redshirted last year.  Sabino fractured a bone in his hand in mid-August and may not be ready for the opening week. 

 

Secondary

Ohio State will use more 4-2-5 defense this year, and when they do, Klein will come out at linebacker for a nickel back.

 

One full-time player returns to this unit.  Safety Orhian Johnson is the leading returning tackler on the team.  He made 50 tackles and successfully defended three passes.  C. J. Barnett will start at the opposite safety.  In two years, he has made a grand total of nine tackles.

 

The two new cornerbacks are Travis Howard and Bradley Roby.  Both players are athletic, but inexperienced. 

 

Tyler Moeller and Christian Bryant will platoon at nickel back.

 

OTHER

There is too much pride and tradition for The Ohio State University to let the coaching change and suspensions affect them in a negative way.  The only effect will be in the talent not available to play.  Unfortunately, the Buckeyes will lose one or two games they would not have lost with Pryor.

 

SUMMARY

Fret not Buckeye fans.  Sure, a three or four-loss season is not what you want, but your team will recover and even challenge for a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game.

 

The five games the suspended players will miss are at home against Akron, Toledo, Colorado, and Michigan State, and on the road at Miami of Florida, in what will be given a catchy name due to the Hurricanes having to place 13 players on the ineligible list.

 

OSU must play at Nebraska and at Michigan, but they host Wisconsin in a revenge match.  The Badgers prevented Ohio State from playing in the National Championship game last year.

 

ILLINOIS

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Nathan Scheelhaase is “the best of the rest” in the Big Ten.  There are four top-notch quarterbacks in this league, and Scheelhaase is number five.

 

As a freshman last year, he topped 1,000 yards rushing (with sacks removed), and he completed 59% of his passes for 1,825 yards and 17 touchdowns.  Barring a sophomore slump, he should top 2,000 yards passing.

 

Receivers

Coach Ron Zook does not have a lot of experience here, and Illinois receivers only averaged 12.5 receptions per game.  A. J. Jenkins returns after leading the Illini with 56 receptions, 746 yards, and seven touchdowns.  Sophomores Ryan Lankford and Darius Millines earned starting spots in the spring.  They both averaged over 20 yards per catch, but they combined for just eight receptions.  Evan Wilson caught 10 passes from his tight end position. This position is a concern, but offensive coordinator Paul Petrino will get a lot of mileage with what he has to work with.

 

Running Backs

Mikel Leshoure finished second in the Big Ten with 1,697 rushing yards, missing out on the rushing title by a mere five yards.  He was the only reason to visit Wrigley Field in the last year.  He torched Northwestern for more than 300 rushing yards in the game played there last November.  However, he chose not to come back for his senior year, and he is now a Detroit Lion.

 

Jason Ford inherits this position.  He rushed for 480 yards and seven touchdowns and could top 1,000 yards this year, but he does not have the ability of the star he replaces.

 

Fullback Jay Prosch tips the scale at 250 pounds, and he can move a linebacker out of the way.

 

Offensive Line

This is a talented line with enough experience to lead the Illini to a repeat showing of last year’s excellent offensive showing.  Illinois averaged 32.5 points and almost 400 yards per game, and there is no reason to think they cannot top 30 and 400 this year.

 

Tackle Jeff Allen is the leader of the blocking corps.  After earning a spot on the All-Big Ten 2nd team last year, he should move up to 1st team this year.  Center Graham Pocic has all-star potential.  Guard Hugh Thornton is beginning his third year as a starter.  The new starters are guard Jack Cornell and tackle Michael Heitz.  Cornell played sparingly in his first three seasons, while Heitz is a redshirt freshman.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Defensive coordinator Vic Koenning runs his version of the Bandit Defense, where one player is half end and half linebacker.  The Bandit is Michael Buchanan, and he needs to greatly better his production of last season if the defense is to succeed.  Buchanan started eight times and played in three others, making 40 tackles and 5 ½ stops for loss.

 

The rest of the line is a liability.  Koenning likes his linemen to be aggressive and cause things to happen rather than react to what happened.  End Glenn Foster has seen minimal action in his first two seasons, but he will get a bulk of the reps opposite the Bandit.

 

Tackle Akeem Spence made 45 tackles as a freshman and earned a spot on the Freshman All-American team.  Craig Wilson moves across to the other side of the ball and will start at the other tackle position.

 

Linebackers

Ian Thomas is the top holdover in this unit.  He is also the leading returning tackler, having made 67 stops in 2010.  6 ½ of those stops were behind the line.

 

Trulon Henry has been moved here from the secondary.  He had six passes defended and made 64 tackles.  Jonathan Brown inherits the other vacant spot.

 

Secondary

The improvement in talent and experience here will allow Koenning to blitz more up front.  Expect Illinois to play more Cover 0 and Cover 1 defenses (man-to-man defenses) with an extra one or two pass rushers this year.  Having two cornerbacks that can cover without help is the reason.  Terry Hawthorne and Tavon Wilson teamed for 13 passes defended and should improve that communal number north of 15 this year.  Two new safeties will start on the back line.  Supo Sani missed all of 2010 with an injury, while Pat Nixon-Youman saw playing time last year, making 15 tackles and intercepting a couple of passes.

 

OTHER

The hiring of new coordinators pumped life into this lifeless program.  Zook was on the way out, but he was rescued by Petrino and Koenning.

 

Illinois kicker Derek Dimke is worth a couple extra points in PiRate Rating.  The senior connected on all 43 PAT attempts and was good on 24-29 field goal attempts, hitting two from 50 yards+.

 

SUMMARY

Illinois will begin 2-0 and have a chance to improve to 4-0 before Big Ten play starts.  They host Arkansas State and South Dakota State before hosting Arizona State in what will be a pivotal game.  Then, a week later they host a tough Western Michigan team that could catch the Illini looking ahead one week to rival Northwestern.

 

The Illini do not hit the road until game six at Indiana.  They could be 6-0 when Ohio State comes to Champaign-Urbana on October 22.  The back end of the schedule has four tough games, but Zook should be able to coax eight wins out of this team.

 

PURDUE

OFFENSE

Quarterback

A school noted for excellent quarterbacks (Len Dawson, Bob Griese, Mike Phipps, Mark Herrmann, Drew Brees, etc.) finds itself in a quarterback quandary as the 2011 season begins.  Expected starter Rob Henry went down with an ACL injury in the late stages of preseason practice.  He could miss the entire season.

 

Former Miami quarterback Robert Marve split the signal calling duties with Henry last year, and he too has a knee injury, albeit not as serious as the one Henry has.

 

Caleb TerBush will start the opening game.  He has virtually no experience as a college quarterback.  Sophomore Sean Robinson had a tough freshman season, completing 48% of his passes with a 2/6 TD/Int ratio, and he will be the number two option until Marve is healthy again.  Look for a decline in production here if Coach Danny Hope has to go with his third and fourth options.  He will call more running plays, hoping to minimize mistakes.

 

Receivers

Three of the top four receivers have graduated, leaving this position a bit inexperienced and less talented.  Antavian Edison caught 32 passes but averaged less than 10 yards per reception.  O. J. Ross and Justin Siller are the next most experienced receivers, but they teamed for just 23 receptions and two touchdowns.  Purdue receivers as a whole averaged just 9.2 yards per catch.  A lot of their receptions were little more than glorified overhanded quick pitches just across the line. 

 

Running Backs

Henry was the leading rusher last year, so his loss hurts in more than one way.  Purdue used a lot of backs last year, but unfortunately most of them are now gone.  Edison is actually the leading returning rusher.  He ran the reverse sweep 36 times for 130 yards.

 

All is not lost. Junior Ralph Bolden ran for over 900 yards two years ago, but he missed 2010 with an ACL injury.  He has taken his job back and if he is fully recovered and can cut laterally, he could challenge for 1,000 yards rushing.  Of course, Hope likes to platoon here, and he signed multiple backs in this incoming class.

 

Offensive Line

This unit could have been a major strength this year, but instead, it will be closer to neutral.  Instead of two legitimate stars, PU will have to make do with just one.  Guard Ken Plue was placed on the Outland Trophy watch list, but he will be the one watching when the season begins, as he is dealing with academic issues.

 

As a result, Hope had to do some shuffling.  Tackle Nick Mondek was moved to guar to replace Plue.  Justin Kitchens moved into the starting tackle spot vacated by Mondek.  Additionally, center Peters Drey and guard Rick Schmeig switched positions.

 

Tackle Dennis Kelly stayed put where he is, and he is the one true star of this unit, at least until (if) Plue is allowed back. 

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Expect another good season in the trenches this year, even with the loss of the best defensive end that has played at Ross-Ade Stadium in many years; Ryan Kerrigan made a whopping 26 tackles for loss.  Three veterans return to the four-man line, while the new starter has a lot of experience.  Tackle Kawann Short made six sacks and 12 ½ stops for loss while coming up with 41 total tackles—all high for a typical defensive tackle.  His counterpart inside is Bruce Gaston, but Gaston could miss the opener due to a sore back.

 

Robert Maci will not replicate Kerrigan’s stats, but he will make a lot of tackles coming his way.  Gerald Gooden returns to the other terminal spot after making 35 stops a year ago. 

 

The Boilermakers should not give up too much more than the 138 yards per game they allowed last year, and they could come close to matching their 33 sacks.

 

Linebackers

There will be improvement in this unit in 2011.  Middle linebacker Dwayne Beckford and outside linebacker Joe Holland finished 2nd and 3rd in tackles with a combined 157 stops and 11 going for losses.  Will Lucas was the principle reserve here last year, and he came up with 43 tackles.

 

Secondary

While not as talented as Penn State’s secondary, this group has a lot of depth.  All four 2010 starters return, and there are capable backups at each spot.  Cornerbacks Josh Johnson and Ricardo Allen teamed for 126 tackles and 14 passes defended.  Normando Harris will see considerable time here as well and will serve as the nickel back.

 

Safeties Logan Link and Albert Evans combined for just seven passes defended, but even worse, just two interceptions.  As a whole, PU had only 10 interceptions, which is the major reason they had a -6 turnover margin.  Additionally, Link led the team in tackles from his strong safety position.  That indicates a weak overall defense, and Purdue gave up 29 points and 370 yards per game last year.

 

OTHER

Purdue has endured three consecutive losing seasons for the first time since the 12-year run of losing seasons from 1985 to 1996.

 

SUMMARY

The schedule just got a little trickier, as an unsettled situation at quarterback could present the Boilermakers with a couple of trap games to start the season.

 

Purdue hosts Middle Tennessee in week one and goes to Rice in week two.  They would have been easy picks to win both, but now both games move closer to becoming tossups.  Following a breather against Southeast Missouri and a week off, Notre Dame comes south to West Lafayette.  Purdue must be 3-1 after this game to have a shot at bowl eligibility.

 

In Big Ten play, PU hosts Minnesota, Illinois, Ohio State, and Iowa, and they visit Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Indiana.  The Boilermakers can win maybe three of these games.

 

INDIANA

OFFENSE

Quarterback

The Hoosiers start over with new coach Kevin Wilson who ran Bob Stoops’ offense at Oklahoma after spending three years as OC at Northwestern.  Both the Sooners and Wildcats put up a lot of points on the scoreboard and placed a lot of quarterbacks on all-conference teams.

 

This year, IU replaces one of their best passers in history.  Ben Chappell was a prized gunfighter in the Pistol Offense.  He completed 62.5% of his passes for 3,295 yards and 24 touchdowns, and he did it with virtually no help from the running game.  His loss will keep the Hoosiers from competing with the rest of the league in 2011.

 

Dusty Kiel takes over under center.  As a freshman, he attempted 17 passes and completed just four with two interceptions.  Edward Wright-Baker performed little better in his brief time last year, completing 41.7% of his passes.  Expect both to see duty this year.

 

The passing statistics will take a considerable drop this season, from 287 yards per game to as little as 175.

 

Receivers

IU has one quality possession receiver in Damarlo Belcher.  He caught 78 passes last year, but his two principle cohorts are now longer around.  Defenses will concentrate on slowing him down.

 

Two starters expected to contribute will be missing playing time at the beginning of the season.  Tight end Ted Bolser and wideout Duwyce Wilson are the second and third leading returning receivers (59 receptions and eight touchdowns), but neither are on the depth chart for the opening game.  Dre Muhammad and Kofi Hughes will see more passes thrown their way.  It leaves an already suspect receiving corps in very weak condition.

 

Running Backs

Wilson’s teams were not strictly pass-crazy.  At Northwestern, his tenure as OC coincided with Damien Anderson’s years at running back.  He had Adrian Peterson and Demarco Murray at Oklahoma.

 

Wilson does not have a back on his roster that is capable of running 25 times for 125 yards.  In fact, IU’s leading rusher from 2010 gained just 352 yards.  Darius Willis returns this year, but he is facing a one-game suspension as well as a demotion into Wilson’s doghouse.  The new running back contingent will feature redshirt freshman Matt Perez and Juco transfer Stephen Houston.  There’s nowhere to go but up for this unit.

 

Offensive Line

There are no stars in the blocking corps, but at least there is some experience returning, and it can only mean some improvement will be made here this year.  The Hoosier offensive line only gave up 12 sacks last year, but Chappell’s quick read and release played a significant part in that.

 

Center Will Matte begins his third year as the starter, and he is the best pass blocker on the team.  Justin Pagan moves to guard after starting at tackle last year.  He has started at both positions throughout his career in Bloomington.  Marc Damisch moves from second team to first team to start at the opposite guard.  Andrew McDonald starts at one tackle position, while Josh Hager will man the other spot.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Three starters return to the trenches, led by end Darius Johnson.  Johnson made 65 tackles with seven going for lost yardage.  He led IU with 4 ½ sacks.  Redshirt freshman Ryan Phillis will start at the opposite end.  Adam Replogle and Mick Mentzer return at the tackle positions, but Larry Black has beaten out Mentzer.  The three combined for 67 tackles and 10 tackles for loss.  Overall, this is a weak unit for a Big Ten team, but it is not the weakest in the league.

 

Linebackers

Middle linebacker Jeff Thomas is the only player on this side of the ball with the potential to make 3rd Team All-Big Ten.  Thomas registered 82 tackles last year with 7 ½ for loss.  He also picked off a couple of passes.

 

Leon Beckum finished with 69 tackles and nine stops for loss.  Joining him on the opposite side is redshirt freshman Chase Hoobler.  While not as weak as the defensive line, this unit is still below par for the Big Ten.

 

Secondary

Unfortunately, the secondary is the weakest unit and most inexperienced on the entire team.  The Hoosiers gave up 238 passing yards per game last year, and they allowed enemy passers to complete better than 65% of their passes.  Two players with starting experience are back, but only one will start this year.

 

Greg Haban has moved from safety to cornerback.  He intercepted one pass and knocked loose five others while making 40 tackles last year.  Lawrence Bennett will start opposite him.  Bennett played sparingly at safety as a freshman.

 

Jarrell Drane and Chris Adkins will man the safety positions.  Both made seven tackles last year in limited action, but Adkins has prior starting experience.  Former Starter Donnell Jones will be the nickel back.

 

OTHER

Indiana has enjoyed just one winning season since 1994.  Bill Mallory produced winning regular seasons seven times in nine seasons, but before him, Lee Corso had just two winning seasons in his 10 years in Bloomington.  Wilson’s task is a tough one.

 

The movie “Hoosiers” is one of the all-time best sports movies, but we believe another movie could be made about the 1967 Indiana football team.  Picked to finish in the bottom two or three of the standings, the Hoosiers continued to upset opponents and pull victory out of the jaws of defeat week after week until they were Big Ten Champions and Rose Bowl participants. 

 

SUMMARY

2011 is going to be a long year at Memorial Stadium.  Indiana has three winnable non-conference games, and they better take advantage against Ball State, South Carolina State, and North Texas.  We do not see them winning a conference game this year.

 

Legends Division

NEBRASKA

OFFENSE

Quarterback

The Cornhuskers join the Big Ten at the right time.  Most of their adversaries in this division are in a rebuilding mode.  The Cornhuskers suffered some heavy losses on this side of the ball, but they had so much depth, they can reload rather than rebuild.

 

One place where Coach Bo Pelini does not have to reload is at quarterback, where Taylor Martinez was fabulous as a freshman last year.  Martinez rushed for more than 1,000 yards (sacks removed) and passed for more than 1,600.  He had a 241-yard rushing game against Kansas State, and he had a 323-yard passing game with five touchdowns against Oklahoma State.  Look for him to rush for a little less and pass for a little more in 2011.

 

If Martinez is injured for any amount of time, this position could become a big concern as three other QBs expected to contend for playing time are no longer in the program due to a transfer, an injury, and a professional baseball career.

 

Receivers

Nebraska’s most valuable receiver is tight end Kyler Reed.  He caught 22 passes for 395 yards and eight touchdowns last year.  Pelini liked to send him over the middle when the ‘Huskers penetrated the opponents’ 30 yard line.  Ben Cotton is an excellent second tight end, and NU will use two tight end sets.

 

Brandon Kinnie led NU with 44 receptions last year.  He scored five touchdowns and averaged 11.2 yards per reception.  Khiry Cooper saw some action as a starter and a reserve, and he will join freshmen Kenny Bell and Jamal Turner and junior Tim Marlowe as receivers who will see playing time.  It is a decent unit but not spectacular.

 

Running Backs

Rex Burkhead rushed for almost 1,300 yards as a freshman, and he added 951 in an injury-shortened sophomore season last year.  He could challenge for the Big Ten rushing lead this year, and we expect him to top 1,000 yards again.

 

Fullback Tyler Legate will open holes for Burkhead.  Nebraska used to utilize their fullbacks in their running and passing game, but now they are glorified third guards.

 

Offensive Line

This is the only concern on this side of the ball.  Three starters are missing from 2010, and only tackle Jeremiah Sirles can be considered an all-conference possibility.  Sirles missed Spring Practice, but he should be okay to start the season.  Center Mike Caputo is solid, but he will not remind Cornhusker fans of Dave Rimington or Rik Bonness.

 

Redshirt freshman Jake Cotton will start at the vacant tackle spot.  Sophomore Andrew Rodriguez will start at one guard spot, while true freshman Tyler Moore will man the other guard position.  There is depth here, but not like in past seasons.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

Defensive coordinator Carl Pelini’s Blackshirt Defense regressed a little last year, giving up 17 points and 300+ yards per game after leading the nation in 2009 by giving up just 10 points and 270 yards per game.

 

The Cornhuskers return some stars, but they lost some as well.  They are loaded on this side of the trenches, as most of the two-deep returns.

 

Jared Crick will contend for All-American accreditation after making 70 tackles with 9 ½ sacks and 17 total tackles for loss.  He forms one of the nation’s best tackle tandems with Baker Steinkuhler, who registered 46 tackles and four for losses.

 

At end, Cameron Meredith is a potential all-conference player.  He made 64 tackles with eight stops for loss.  The new starter at end will be Jason Ankrah, who saw very limited duty but won the spot with a great showing in practice.  This looks like a line capable of holding opponents to less than 120 rushing yards per game. 

 

Linebackers

Lavonte David could become the first player to lead two different conferences in total tackles in consecutive seasons.  He led the Big 12 with 152 tackles last year.  The potential All-American also had six sacks and made 15 stops behind the line.  He also knocked away 10 passes.

 

Any two average linebackers could be put on the field with David and give the Cornhuskers the best trio in the Big Ten.  The two players joining him are more than average linebackers.  Will Compton was a Freshman All-American two years ago.  He made 15 tackles in limited action last year.  Sean Fisher missed more than half of 2009 and all of last year, but he should be ready to return to his pre-injury form.  As usual, the depth here is rather strong.

 

Secondary

If any teams exploit this defense, it will be the secondary that gets exploited.  It isn’t like this is a bad unit.  It’s a B+ unit with two A+ units in front.

 

The star of this group is cornerback Alfonzo Dennard, but he may miss the start of the season with a pulled leg muscle.  Dennard finished 2010 with four interceptions and 11 passes defended.  Ciente Evans inherits the other cornerbacks after seeing limited action last year, but he will not be able to replicate what Prince Amukamara did for the ‘Huskers (13 passes defended).

 

Austin Cassidy returns at safety after making 48 tackles last year (but only one pass defended), while Courtney Osborne made 41 tackles and five for losses in relief last year.

 

OTHER

Pelini felt as if biased Big 12 officiating cost the Cornhuskers a couple of games last year.  The Big Ten has been known for a lot of questionable officiating calls; might Nebraska have a rough Plebe year in this conference?

 

As strong as this program is, the Cornhuskers have not played in a BCS Bowl since they lost the Rose Bowl game to Miami 10 years ago.

 

SUMMARY

This team is strong enough to be the favorite in the Legends Division, but we cannot see Nebraska challenging for the National Championship Game.  They were hindered by their first Big Ten schedule forcing them to play Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State from the other division.  We’ll call this a nine or 10-win regular season and install NU as the favorite in the Legends Division.

 

MICHIGAN

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Last year, we told you to watch out for Denard Robinson, and that he could become the next Pat White.  At least we were right about something.  Robinson’s stats were on par with Cam Newton.  Let’s look at the comparison. 

 

Robinson rushed for 1,702 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging 6.6 yards per attempt.  Newton rushed for 1,473 yards and 20 touchdowns while averaging 5.6 yards per rush.

 

Robinson completed 62.5% of his passes for 2,570 yards and 18 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.  Newton completed 66.1% of his passes for 2,854 yards and 30 touchdowns to seven interceptions. 

 

Robinson’s total yardage output was just 55 yards shy of matching Newton’s, and Newton played in one more game.

 

In new head coach Brady Hoke’s offense, Robinson will pass more and run less, but Hoke would be crazy not to use Robinson’s running skills.

 

Last year’s backup and former starter Tate Forcier transferred to San Jose State, so there is a concern should Robinson go down with an injury.  Sophomore Devin Gardner threw 10 passes last year.

 

 

Receivers

Robinson should top 3,000 yards passing this year because he welcomes most of his favorite targets from last season.  Roy Roundtree led the Wolverines with 72 receptions, 935 yards, and seven touchdowns.  Junior Hemingway caught 32 passes and averaged 18.5 yards per reception with four touchdowns.  Tight end Kevin Koger made 14 receptions and scored twice while averaging 14.2 yards per catch.

 

UM has a lot of depth here with Martavious Odoms, Kelvin Grady, and Jeremy Gallon.

 

Running Backs

The Wolverines will go with a two-man platoon here with Michael Shaw and Fitz Toussaint.  Shaw rushed for 601 yards and five scores, while Toussaint rushed for just 87 yards but averaged 11 yards per carry.

 

Vincent Smith will be the conversion back who comes in on 3rd and short and at the goal line.  He rushed for 601 yards last year and scored five touchdowns.

 

Offensive Line

Hoke’s offense will have a chance to match last year’s production because he has a strong offensive line.  Center David Molk was a 1st Team All-Big Ten choice last year.  Patrick Omameh starts beside him at guard for the second consecutive season.  Rickey Barnum is the new starter at the other guard.

 

Taylor Lewan returns to start at one tackle position after starting nine times last year, while senior Mark Huyge will start at the other tackle spot.  Huyge was a co-starter last year and a full-time starter in 2009.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

This is what cost Rich Rodriguez his job.  None of the units on this side of the ball looked like a Michigan defensive unit.  The maize and blue gave up 189 rushing yards per game and 262 passing yards per game, surrendering 35.2 points per game.  Five teams topped 500 total yards.  Unofficially, we do not believe the Wolverines gave up 500 total yards in any game coached by Bo Schembechler during his tenure in Ann Arbor, and we know his teams gave up 35 or more points one time in 21 seasons, and that was against a top-five-ranked Missouri team in his third game of his UM career.

 

Hoke hired former UM defensive coordinator Greg Mattison to turn this side of the ball around.  Expect immediate progress, especially up front, where three starters return to the trenches.

 

Ryan Van Bergen has been moved from end to tackle to join Mike Martin.  This tandem teamed for 74 tackles and 14 ½ tackles for loss.  End Craig Roh will team with new starter Will Heininger, who missed all of last year with an ACL injury.  Walk-on Nathan Brink has earned playing time with a great spring and August showing.

 

Linebackers

Middle linebacker Kenny Demens has the potential to make 100 or more tackles after making 82 stops last year.  Cameron Gordon finished with 77 tackles, and he finished with seven passes defended.  Mike Jones moves into the starting lineup after redshirting last year.  The depth is not all that strong.  Leading tackler Jonas Mouton will be sorely missed, and this unit will be the biggest liability on this team.

 

Secondary

Strong safety Jordan Kovacs made 116 tackles, which is not a good sign.  8 ½ of those tackles went for lost yardage.  He joins the other returning secondary starter, cornerback J. T. Floyd, who finished with 66 tackles and five passes defended.

 

Thomas Gordon has some starting experience, and he will get the nod at safety, while Troy Woolfolk returns from injury to regain the starting cornerback spot he had in 2009.  Carvin Johnson will be the nickel back.

 

OTHER

It has been 12 years since Michigan last won a BCS Bowl game (defeated Alabama in the Orange Bowl 1/1/2000) and 14 years since they last won the Rose Bowl.

 

SUMMARY

Are we crazy to place Michigan this far up in the Legends Division standings?  Probably.  However, we have a lot of confidence in Hoke.  He will prove to be the best coach at the Big House since Bo retired.

 

Michigan’s schedule is not a cakewalk.  They begin the season with one of the MAC’s tougher teams in Western Michigan.  Then, they host Notre Dame.  A breather against neighborhood rival Eastern Michigan precedes a date with Hoke’s former team—San Diego State.

 

We can see this team winning five or six conference games.  UM hosts Minnesota, Purdue, Nebraska, and Ohio State, while they go on the road to Northwestern, Michigan State, Iowa, and Illinois.  This may be the year that UM breaks the seven year losing streak to Ohio State.

 

MICHIGAN STATE

OFFENSE

Quarterback

When last we saw Kirk Cousins, he was testing the feel of the turf at the Florida Citrus Bowl stadium.  He tested it five times thanks to the Alabama Crimson Tide.  Prior to the bowl game, Cousins was having an excellent season.  He finished the year with 2,825 yards and 20 touchdowns, while completing 67% of his passes.

 

Backups Andrew Maxwell returns after seeing limited action.  If called on, he can be a reliable emergency option.  However, he is no Cousins.  Cousins might be the best passer in the league.

 

Receivers

Spartans coach Mark Dantonio has one of the better receiving units in the Big Ten.  B. J. Cunningham and Keshawn Martin return for their final seasons after teaming for 82 receptions 1,005 yards.  Cunningham scored nine times.  Keith Nichol began his career at Oklahoma.  In reserve last year, he caught 22 passes.  There is adequate depth at the wideouts.

 

Brian Linthicum and Garrett Celek will split the load at tight end, while Dion Sims has improved enough to see some time there as well. Linthicum started his career at Clemson.

 

Running Backs

Bulky Edwin Baker returns after rushing for 1,201 yards and 13 touchdowns last year.  He missed a game and part of another, so he averaged more than 100 yards per full game.  The 1st Team All-Big Ten selection could challenge for the conference lead this season.  He isn’t a breakaway runner, but he will aggravate defenses with several five to 10 yard gains. 

 

Larry Caper and Le’Veon Bell will back up Baker.  Bell gained more than 600 yards last year, while Caper added 144.

 

Offensive Line

The Spartans must rebuild a little in the blocking corps.  They lose three starters, including an all-conference star.  The returning starters are guards Chris McDonald and Joel Foreman.  Foreman is the leader of this group, and he could contend for 1st Team All-Big Ten accolades this year.

 

Redshirt freshman Skyler Burkland will start at one of the vacant tackle positions, while Dan France and Jared McGaha will platoon at the other tackle.  Travis Jackson and Blake Treadwell will both see time at center.

 

There is dept here, but this unit is barely above mediocre.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

The Spartans have excellent depth here, especially at end, where four players will share the load.  Marcus Rush and Denzel Drone will share one end spot, while William Gholston and Tyler Hoover will split snaps at the other. 

 

Jerel Worthy starts at one tackle position after making 40 tackles with eight for losses.  Anthony Rashad White has beaten out former starter Kevin Pickelman at the nose.  White made 17 tackles in relief last year.

 

Linebackers

There is a little depth here this season, but overall, this is just an above-average group.  Max Bullough is the only sure starter, and he will man the middle spot.  He made 23 stops as a backup last year.

 

The outside positions will be split by three players.  Chris Norman will start at the Star (weak side) position, while Steve Gardiner will start at the Sam position, but Denicos Allen will see time at both positions.  The trio combined for 88 tackles.

 

Secondary

Johnny Adams is the one of two stars in the secondary.  The cornerback made three interceptions and had 10 passes defended.  Free safety Trenton Robinson bettered that with four picks and 12 passes defended.

 

Daqueze Dennard will start at the vacant cornerback spot, while Isaiah Lewis will start at the other.

 

OTHER

Michigan State has enjoyed four consecutive winning seasons, and should make it five in a row this year.  The last time they had five consecutive winning seasons was 1985-1990, when they extended it to a sixth year.

 

It has been 24 years since the Spartans last went to the Rose Bowl.

 

For those old enough to remember, it is hard to believe that it has been 45 years since the Spartans and Notre Dame hooked up for their epic “Game of the Century” in November of 1966. 

 

SUMMARY

We are split here in our opinion about the Michigan State season.  One of us believes they should be the odds-on favorite to win the Legends Division and the Big Ten Championship.  One of us believes the Spartans will be affected by their 49-7 pasting from Alabama in the Capital One Bowl and struggle to break even at 6-6. 

 

The non-league schedule includes the toughie at Notre Dame and home games against Youngstown State, Florida Atlantic, and Central Michigan.  They draw Ohio State and Wisconsin from the Leaders, and face Nebraska, Iowa, and Northwestern on the road.  It looks like a slight regression for MSU this year.

 

IOWA

OFFENSE

Quarterback

Ricky Stanzi had a splendid senior year in Iowa City, but the Hawkeyes disappointed their fans with an 8-5 record.  James Vandenberg takes over for Stanzi, and the junior has completed less than 50% of his passes in the short amount of time he has played.

 

Vandenberg attempted just eight passes last year, and he completed five for 45 yards and a touchdown.  He will not come close to matching Stanzi’s 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns.

 

Redshirt freshman A. J. Derby will be the number two option.

 

Receivers

It is hard to succeed with just one primetime player in your receiving corps, but Iowa has one star and “the rest.”  Marvin McNutt caught 53 passes and gained 861 yards with eight touchdowns.  Keenan Davis caught just 11 passes and has never become the star he was forecasted to be.  Tight end Brad Herman averaged over 17 yards per reception last year, but he only caught nine balls.  McNutt needs another receiver to have a breakout season, or else he will be shadowed by two defenders on every passing play.

 

Running Backs

Coach Kirk Ferentz must replace his top rusher from 2010.  Adam Robinson rushed for 941 yards and 10 scores, leaving Marcus Coker to replace him.  Coker was actually the better back last year, as he averaged almost a full yard more per carry while gaining 622 yards after not playing the first three games.  Coker was the star of the Insight Bowl, rushing for 219 yards on 33 carries.

 

Matt Meyers gets the start at fullback.

 

Offensive Line

Like a lot of the teams in this conference, Iowa has an average offensive line this year.  The line could be below average for the season opener, because guard Nolan MacMillan is recovering from hernia surgery and may not be ready.  Matt Tobin will replace him in the lineup until he is ready to go full speed again.

 

Riley Reiff made the All-Big Ten 2nd Team last year at tackle.  Markus Zusevics will start opposite him.  The other guard spot will go to Adam Gettis, while Coach Ferentz’s son James will start at center for the second year. 

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

This unit is the weakest link on the defensive side of the ball.  Expect the Hawkeyes to give up considerably more on the ground than the 102 yards per game they gave up in 2010.  Iowa loses the services of three NFL Draft choices, and their replacements are not NFL prospects.

 

Tackle Mike Daniels is the lone returnee.  He made 40 tackles with 11 stops for loss.  Thomas Nardo will start at the other tackle position after seeing very limited action in his first three seasons.  Lebron Daniel has made nine tackles in three years, but he will start at one end position.  Broderick Binns will start at the other end spot.  He made 36 tackles last year.  While not very talented or experienced, this unit is made up of four seniors, so there should be maturity here.

 

Linebackers

The Hawkeyes have talent at this position.  Middle Linebacker James Morris was a freshman All-American last year after making 70 tackles.  Tyler Nielsen started eight times and made 42 tackles.  He defended five passes.  Christian Kirksey takes over at the other linebacker spot after making six tackles in a short amount of playing time.

 

Secondary

This is sort of a hit and miss unit.  Two starters are as good as any two other teammates in the league.  Cornerback Shaun Prater and safety Micah Hyde combined for 150 tackles, eight interceptions, and 21 passes defended.  Prater earned 1st team all-conference honors and could compete for All-American honors this year, but only if the rebuilt line gets enough pressure on quarterbacks.

 

Cornerback Greg Castillo and safety Collin Sleeper are two juniors that are more like fourth year freshmen.  There isn’t much depth here either.

 

OTHER

Iowa lost a lot of their special team skill players.  Kicker Mike Meyer is the lone returnee of the key players, and he is not one of the better kickers in the league.

 

The Hawkeyes have given up less than 20 points per game the last four years.

 

SUMMARY

Iowa has two easy non-conference games, its annual rivalry game, and a tough game against a team that could be in a BCS Bowl.  The Hawkeyes host Tennessee Tech and Louisiana Monroe which will give them two wins.  The CyHawk game is at Iowa State this year, but Iowa should win that one.  If they can beat Pittsburgh to start 4-0, then they could build on the momentum and even exceed last year’s final outcome. 

 

We tend to believe they will go 3-1 outside of the Big Ten and then struggle to break even in league play with a lot of close games.  They will be bowl eligible.

 

NORTHWESTERN

OFFENSE

Quarterback

When Dan Persa went down for the season with an Achilles injury suffered after a big win over Iowa, it destroyed the Wildcats’ season.  They mailed it in against Illinois and Wisconsin, losing by a combined 118-50.  Persa’s absence wasn’t directly responsible for the defensive breakdown, but his replacement could not sustain long drives like Persa could, and it exposed Northwestern’s defensive liabilities.

 

Persa returns after completing 73.5% of his passes for 258 yards per game.  His TD/Int ratio was 15/4.  He rushed for close to 700 yards (sacks removed).  If he is 100% healthy, he could guide NU to an upper division finish in the Legends Division.  However, if his heel prevents him from being as mobile as he was, he could get clobbered.

 

Receivers

Persa has some tools to work with.  Jeremy Ebert earned 1st Team All-Big Ten honors last year.  He grabbed 62 passes and picked up 953 yards, while scoring eight touchdowns.  H-Back Drake Dunsmore caught 40 passes and score five times.  Demetrius Fields added 25 receptions.  There is depth returning here as well with Charles Brown, Tony Jones, and Rashad Lawrence.  Lawrence will probably start the opener. 

 

Running Backs

Mike Trumpy and Jacob Schmidt will share most of the carries.  Trumpy is more like a fullback from the old days when teams liked to run the ball between the tackles to set up the sweep.  Trumpy rarely goes down on first contact.  He gained 530 yards and averaged 4.6 yards per attempt.

 

Schmidt gained just 161 yards and scored four times.  Adonis Smith will see significant time as well.

 

Offensive Line

Considering that most of the offensive lines in the Big Ten are on the mediocre side, Northwestern’s blocking corps must be considered a strength when compared to the other teams.

 

Four starters return.  This is not a super unit, as their 40 sacks allowed can attest, but it is better than about seven or eight conference rivals.

 

Tackles All Netter and Patrick Ward are big and quick, while guards Ben Burkett and Brian Mulroe are quicker but maybe not as strong.  The new center will be redshirt freshman Brandon Vitabile.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

The Wildcats gave up 29 points and 426 yards per game last year, so there is a lot of room for improvement.  However, we are not sure NU can improve much this year because there is not enough talent.

 

One player that is talented is end Vincent Browne.  Of the returning Big Ten players, Browne led with seven sacks and 15 ½ tackles for loss.  Kevin Watt returns to the opposite end.  He made 29 tackles with 5 ½ tackles for loss, but he may be replaced in the starting lineup by sophomore Tyler Scott.  Jack Dinardo picked up seven tackles for loss and returns to one DT spot, while the new tackle will be Niko Mafuli.

 

Linebackers

This is the biggest weakness for NU.  Bryce McNaul returns after making 62 tackles with five for losses.  David Nwabuisi and Ben Johnson combined for 47 tackles in relief roles.  Behind this trio are untested players with Damien Proby the best of the rest.

 

Secondary

If the Wildcats can generate any pass rush, the secondary should do just fine.  The strength of this unit is at safety with David Arnold and Brian Peters returning after teaming for 149 tackles and 10 passes defended.  Arnold is nursing a sprained ankle and may not be ready to play in the opener.  If he cannot go at Boston College, redshirt freshman Ibraheim Campbell will go in his place.

 

Jordan Mabin returns to one starting cornerback spot after making 63 tackles with 15 passes defended (led Big Ten).  Jeravin Matthews inherits the vacant cornerback position.

 

OTHER

In the last 16 seasons, NU has had seven winning records, seven losing record, and two .500 records.  The Wildcats have enjoyed three consecutive winning seasons.

 

Prior to this run, the Wildcats had endured 23 consecutive losing seasons.  Their last three-year winning record streak came in 1958-59-60.  Their last run of four consecutive winning seasons came in 1928-1931.

 

SUMMARY

It is hard to list Northwestern as the number five team in the Legends Division, and we know that our PiRate Rating has underestimated their power based on how the Wildcats fell apart last year after Persa went out with his injury.

 

NU’s out-of-conference schedule offers only one sure win.  A week two game with Eastern Illinois is the only “gimme” on the schedule.  The other three non-Big Ten games include road trips to Boston College and Army and a home game with Rice. 

 

In this year with more parity in the Big Ten, Northwestern could finish go 6-2 at best and 1-7 at worst. 

 

MINNESOTA

OFFENSE

Quarterback

New coach Jerry Kill starts the rebuilding process at Minnesota minus the Gophers’ all time leading passer.  Adam Weber passed for 2,679 yards and 20 touchdowns last year.  Weber was criticized as the reason UM lost game-after-game, yet he is on the verge of making the Denver Broncos 2011 roster.

 

MarQueis Gray, Max Shortell, and Tom Parish will probably all see the field in September, as none of these three quarterbacks is a complete package.  Gray was actually UM’s second leading receiver last year, and he will be a better runner than passer.

 

True freshman Shortell is a more prototypical pocket passer, while redshirt freshman Parish is a little bit of both.  Regardless of who plays the bulk of the time, this unit will be considerably weaker than last year.

 

Receivers

The number of receptions this year could drop by as many as 50, as the Gophers will have to go back to a predominantly running team.  One receiver who should still see a lot of passes thrown his way is Da’Jon McKnight, who led the Gophers with 48 receptions, 750 yards, and 10 touchdowns.  Redshirt freshman Marcus Jones will start in the slot.  Brandon Green returns after missing all of last year with an injury, and if he can resume where he left off, this unit will be in good shape.  Watch out for Juco transfer Malcolm Moulton.  The late signee has been coming on strong in fall practice, and we would not be surprised if he snuck into the starting lineup.

 

Tight end Eric Lair returns after catching 39 passes and gaining 526 yards.

 

Running Backs

Duane Bennett, Lamonte Edwards, and Donnell Kirkwood will benefit from the new offense running the ball about seven to ten times more per game.  Bennett rushed for 529 yards and caught 33 passes last year.  Edwards is a redshirt freshman, and Kirkwood played sparingly.  With Gray likely running the ball 10-15 times a game, look for the Gophers to easily surpass last year’s average of 135 yards per game.  We are not talking Glen Mason era rushing yards, but they could average 175 yards per game.

 

Offensive Line

This is as big a concern as the quarterback position.  The starting five here is the weakest offensive line unit in the league.  None of the players on this roster look like candidates to make the 3rd Team All-Big Ten list.  Ryan Wynn will man the center position, while Ryan Orton and Chris Bunders start at guard.  Ed Olson will occupy one tackle spot, while redshirt freshman Jimmy Gjere starts opposite.  Bunders and Olson are the only returning starters, but Wynn has past starting experience from 2008.

 

DEFENSE

Defensive Line

UM gave up 34 points per game in Big Ten play, and their 2011 conference schedule does not offer them much chance of shaving that number down into the 20’s. 

 

The defensive line returns most of the two-deep from last year and will be better.  Tackles Brandon Kirksey and Anthony Jacobs teamed for 69 tackles and 12 tackles for loss.  Ends D. L. Wilhite and Matt Garin combined for 27 tackles in part-time starting roles.  Ben Perry could crack the starting lineup, and Kendall Gregory-McGee will see significant playing time in reserve.

 

This unit finished dead last in the league with just nine sacks.  Three of those came against Illinois.

 

Linebackers

This unit is the strength of the team.  UM returns all three starters and welcomes a top reserve who was a highly sought after recruit that signed with Florida but never saw the field due to injury.

 

Gary Tinsley led the team with 90 tackles and 9 ½ for losses.  Keanon Cooper made 68 tackles with 4 ½ stops for loss.  Mike Rallis added 37 tackles with six stops behind the line.  Florida transfer Brendan Beal will supply quality backup.

 

Secondary

This unit is another major liability, but you have to place some of the blame on the lines’ inability to generate a pass rush last year.  UM gave up more than 200 passing yards per game and allowed 65% of enemy passes to be completed.

 

Cornerback Troy Stoudermire returns after registering six passes defended.  After him, the rest of this unit is new.  Brock Vereen made 10 tackles but did nothing else.  Safety Shady Salamon has seen little action in the secondary, but he will generate buzz with his name.  Kim Royston missed all of last year with an injury after performing admirably in 2009.

 

OTHER

Since firing Glen Mason after the 2006 season, Minnesota has gone 17-33.  Mason’s teams went 56-42 after his original rebuilding.

 

Kill was quoted as saying that most of the incoming freshmen would play this year because there was not enough depth to redshirt them.

 

SUMMARY

The Gophers were not that far from being a halfway decent team last year, but they face some rebuilding in Kill’s first year.  They could take a step backward, but they should find a way to match last year’s win total.  They have three winnable games outside of league play, and they may go winless in the Big Ten, since they do not play Indiana.

 

 

2011 Big Ten Conference Media Poll

Team

1st Place Votes

Points

Leaders Division

 

 

Wisconsin

22

141

Ohio State

1

113

Penn State

1

95

Illinois

 

76

Purdue

 

52

Indiana

 

27

 

 

 

Legends Division

 

Nebraska

19

139

Michigan State

4

118

Iowa

 

82

Michigan

1

71

Northwestern

 

69

Minnesota

 

25

 

 

 

Championship Game Winner

 

Nebraska

 

12

Wisconsin

 

11

Michigan State

 

1

 

 

2011 Big Ten Conference PiRate Ratings

Team

PiRate #

Prediction

Leaders Division

 

 

Wisconsin

116.2

6-2/10-3

Penn State

113.4

6-2/9-3

Ohio State

108.1

5-3/8-4

Illinois

107.8

3-5/7-5

Purdue

101.7

3-5/6-6

Indiana

86.5

1-7/4-8

 

 

 

Legends Division

 

Nebraska

116.4

6-2/11-2 *

Michigan

114.8

5-3/8-4

Michigan State

113.5

5-3/8-4

Iowa

107.8

3-5/6-6

Northwestern

101.2

4-4/7-5

Minnesota

101.1

1-7/4-8

   

 

* Nebraska to beat Wisconsin in

 

Big Ten Championship Game

 

 Coming Tomorrow: The PiRate Ratings For Week One–It’s Football Time!

Advertisements

August 19, 2010

2010 Big 12 Conference Preview

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 4:33 am

Go to www.piratings.webs.com where we beat the spread 60.4% in 2009!

 

2010 Big 12 Conference Preview

The Big 12 Conference almost ceased to exist this summer.  It looked like eight of the 12 teams would leave and end up in the Big Ten, Pac-10, and even SEC.  After the dust cleared, the conference was left with 10 teams.  Colorado was the only member of six possible teams to accept the Pac-10 bid.  Nebraska, tired of seeing Texas control the league, gladly accepted a bid to the Big Ten.  The rest of the league will hold a grudge in this final season before divorce becomes official.  Speaking of officials, this league will need close scrutiny this year.  After Nebraska felt they had been robbed in the Big 12 Championship Game, can they expect any better treatment this year? 

Note: The PiRate Ratings are not meant to be used to predict the outcome of future games.  They are usable only as a basis for the current week’s games.  We do not use these ratings to make our selections.  They are only a starting point.  The predictions given below, as for every college conference and NFL division, are not taken from the ratings themselves.

Predictions

Pos North B12 W-L
1 Nebraska 8-0 12-1
2 Missouri 4-4 8-4
3 Colorado 4-4 6-6
4 Kansas 3-5 5-7
5 Kansas State 2-6 6-6
6 Iowa State 1-7 3-9
       
Pos South B12 W-L
1 Oklahoma 7-1 12-1
2 Texas 6-2 10-2
3 Texas Tech 5-3 8-4
4 Texas A&M 4-4 7-5
5 Baylor 3-5 6-6
6 Oklahoma State 1-7 5-7

 

Big 12 Championship Game: Oklahoma over Nebraska

 

BCS Bowl (Fiesta): Oklahoma

BCS Bowl: Nebraska

Cotton Bowl: Texas

Alamo Bowl: Missouri

Insight Bowl: Texas Tech

Holiday Bowl: Texas A&M

Texas Bowl: Baylor

Pinstripe Bowl: Colorado

Dallas Football Classic: Kansas State

 

 

Team By Team Breakdown

North Division

Team Colorado Buffaloes
               
Head Coach Dan Hawkins
               
Colors Black and Gold
               
City Boulder, CO
               
2009 Record              
Conference 2-6
Overall 3-9
               
PiRate Rating 105.5
               
National Rating 45
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 4-4
Overall 6-6

 

Strengths: Offensive Line, Receivers, Defensive Line

Weaknesses: Quarterback, Running Back, Special Teams

Expected Offense: 24-27 points / 320-340 yards

Expected Defense: 24-27 points / 340-360 yards

Schedule: Out of Conference: Colorado State (n), @ California, Hawaii, and Georgia

Interdivision: Baylor, Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma

Outlook: The Buffaloes need to settle on one quarterback, and Tyler Hansen is that man.  Hansen should get more time to pass and pass for 2,500 or more yards, and we don’t expect CU QBs to be sacked 44 times again.  Rodney Stewart could top 1,000 yards rushing.  Transfers from Michigan, USC and UCLA should bolster the receiving corps.  The offensive line returns the entire two-deep from last year, including nine players with starting experience.

A better pass rush should help the defense improve a little, but we don’t expect the Buffs to challenge for a top four position in the league.  Coach Dan Hawkins must win this year, or he will be out of a job.  We don’t know if 6-6 and a minor bowl will be enough, but that is what we think will happen.

Team Iowa State Cyclones
               
Head Coach Paul Rhoads
               
Colors Cardinal and Gold
               
City Ames, IA
               
2009 Record              
Conference 3-5
Overall 7-6
               
PiRate Rating 94.4
               
National Rating 77
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 1-7
Overall 3-9

 

Strengths: Quarterback, Offensive Line, Special Teams

Weaknesses: Receiver, Defensive Line, Linebacker

Expected Offense: 22-26 point / 375-400 yards

Expected Defense: 24-28 points / 425-450 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: Northern Illinois, @ Iowa, Northern Iowa, and Utah

Interdivision: Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma, @ Texas

Outlook: Coach Paul Rhoads placed the Cyclones in a bowl in his first year in Ames, but ISU will revert back to their losing ways this year.  The offense will be somewhat improved, but it was ranked last in the Big 12 last year.  Quarterback Austin Arnaud will hand the ball to Alexander Robinson a lot this year, and if Robinson stays healthy, he could top 1,250 yards on the ground.  Arnaud can run and pass with equal competency, so he should take some of the pressure off Robinson.  Other than Jake Williams, ISU will have to rely on several average receivers.  None of his teammates will allow Williams to avoid double coverage.  The offensive line features tackle Kelechi Osemele, a 2nd Team All-Big 12 selection last year.

Seven key defensive performers graduated, so the Cyclones will take a large step backwards.  The front seven will be much weaker, and opponents will run the ball for more yards and pass against less pass rushing pressure.  Even with a decent secondary, the weaker pass rush will force them to cover a half-second to a second longer.  Expect the pass yardage allowed to go up as well.

ISU should win two of their four non-conference games, but we can only see them winning one Big 12 contest.  Call it a 3-9 rebuilding season.

Team Kansas Jayhawks
               
Head Coach Turner Gill
               
Colors Dark Blue and Red
               
City Lawrence, KS
               
2009 Record              
Conference 1-7
Overall 5-7
               
PiRate Rating 102.0
               
National Rating 53
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 3-5
Overall 5-7

 

Strengths: Not many, but the Offensive Line and Defensive Line are small positives

Weaknesses: Quarterback, Running Back, Receiver, Linebacker, Special Teams

Expected Offense: 22-26 points / 330-350 yards

Expected Defense: 24-28 points / 360-380 yards

Schedule: Out of conference: North Dakota State, Georgia Tech, @ Southern Mississippi, New Mexico State

Interdivision: @ Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State

Outlook: Turner Gill takes over after bringing Buffalo from also-ran to MAC Champion in short time.  It will take time here for his system to bear fruit, but we are confident that he can recruit the Midwest and Southwest and return the Jayhawks to prominence.

KU will debut a new quarterback this year, as Kale Pick and Jordan Webb are locked in a competitive battle.  Pick threw five passes, while Webb has yet to take a college snap.  An interesting battle brews at running back, where last year’s leading rusher Toben Opurum and 6th year player and former linebacker Angus Quigley could form a decent tandem.  KU lost two star receivers who combined for 186 receptions and more than 2,300 yards, so this will be a liability.  Four starters return to the line, and they will undergo some restructuring to fit Gill’s change of offense.

In a pass happy league, a weak secondary is bad news.  KU has some bad news.  The returning defensive backs combined for just two interceptions.  This side of the ball will have to learn a new system as well, and the defensive line is the only average unit using Big 12 standards.  A real plus for the Jayhawks is not having to play Oklahoma or Texas from the South.

Gill has enough talent to repeat last year’s 5-7 record.  The offense will not be as potent, but it will eat more clock.  That will help the defense hold opponents under 30 points per game.

Team Kansas State Wildcats
               
Head Coach Bill Snyder
               
Colors Royal Purple and White
               
City Manhattan, KS
               
2009 Record              
Conference 4-4
Overall 6-6
               
PiRate Rating 96.5
               
National Rating 67
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 2-6
Overall 6-6

 

Strengths: Running Back, Defensive Line

Weaknesses: Quarterback, Receiver

Expected Offense: 22-25 points / 325-350 yards

Expected Defense: 21-24 points / 325-350 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: UCLA, Missouri State, Central Florida, @ North Texas

Interdivision: @ Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas

Outlook: Kansas State’s offense will move on the legs of running back Daniel Thomas.  He raced for 1,265 yards and 11 touchdowns last year, and he could top 1,400 this season.  An experienced offensive line returns, and they are better run blockers than pass blockers.

Quarterback Carson Coffman started four games last year, but he was unspectacular.  With a below average receiving corps, expect KSU to struggle when they get behind in games.

On defense, the line is talented, and there is depth.  They should clear out enough space for the new linebackers to have decent first years as starters.  However, there is not a great pass rusher on the roster.

Look for Kansas State to sweep their four non-conference opponents, which means they only will need two league wins to earn a bowl bid.  That’s what they will get.

Team Missouri Tigers
               
Head Coach Gary Pinkel
               
Colors Black and Gold
               
City Columbia, MO
               
2009 Record              
Conference 4-4
Overall 8-5
               
PiRate Rating 111.6
               
National Rating 32
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 4-4
Overall 8-4

 

Strengths: Quarterback, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker, Defensive Back

Weaknesses: Receiver (not that much of a weakness)

Expected Offense: 31-35 points / 425-450 yards

Expected Defense: 20-24 points / 350-375 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: Illinois (n), McNeese State, San Diego State, Miami (O)

Interdivision: @ Texas A&M, Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech

Outlook: Blaine Gabbert returns at QB where he passed for almost 3,600 yards and 24 touchdowns to just nine picks.  Not the runner Chase Daniel was, he can still pull the ball down and cross the sticks for a first down.  Running back Derrick Washington saw his production drop from over 1,000 yards in 2008 to 865 last year; with an improved offensive line, look for that number to climb back over 1,000.  The only question on offense is at receiver.  Mizzou lost two great pass catchers that combined for 159 receptions and 20 touchdowns.  To make matters worse, Jerrell Jackson, who was expected to be the leading receiver this year, will miss the first three games with a fractured wrist.  Don’t expect him to return and catch half a dozen passes in September.

The Tigers gave up a couple of big plays at the wrong time last year, and it cost them two conference wins and the North Division title.  Expect improved play on this side of the ball as all three units will be improved thanks to the return of eight of the top nine tacklers.  Missouri only picked off eight passes last year.  The entire secondary returns, and the Tigers will intercept double digit passes this season.  The pass rush can only get better with the return of end Aldon Smith.  He recorded 11 ½ sacks last year.  Led by Andrew Gachkar and Will Ebner, the linebacking unit will be tough against the run.

The pre-conference schedule should allow Missouri to start 4-0.  They could be 6-0 by the time they face Oklahoma on homecoming.  We are being as pessimistic as we can when we call for the Tigers to go 4-4 in league play.  They could be 6-2 if they stay healthy and prevent the big plays on defense.

Team Nebraska Cornhuskers
               
Head Coach Bo Pelini
               
Colors Scarlet and Cream
               
City Lincoln, NE
               
2009 Record              
Conference 6-2
Overall 10-4
               
PiRate Rating 120.7
               
National Rating 13
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 8-0
Overall 12-1

 

Strengths: Running Back, Receiver, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker, Defensive Back, Special Teams

Weaknesses: Quarterback

Expected Offense: 28-32 points / 350-375 yards

Expected Defense: 14-18 points / 275-300 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: Western Kentucky, Idaho, @ Washington, South Dakota State

Interdivision: Texas, @ Oklahoma State, @ Texas A&M

Outlook: If Nebraska had just an average quarterback, they would be our pick for one of the two BCS Championship Game teams.  Zac Lee, Cody Green, and Taylor Martinez are still locked in a battle to determine the starter, but we would be surprised if anybody other than Lee line up under center for the first game.  Roy Helu will have a tough time carrying the offense if no passing game develops.  Helu rushed for 1,147 yards and 10 scores last year.  The ‘Huskers return some talented receivers, and they should help the quarterbacks improve their passing numbers.  Niles Paul might be a 1,000 yard receiver at eight other Big 12 schools, but he’ll have to settle for 40-50 receptions and 800-900 yards here.  The offensive line took a major hit when center Mike Smith broke his leg, but Coach Bo Pelini will field another excellent interior.

Nebraska’s defense will take a step back, because it is impossible to replace Ndamukong Suh, Phillip Dillard, Larry Asante, Matt O’Hanlon, and Barry Turner all in one season.  A weaker defense means that NU will give up more than 14 points per game.  The defensive line still has star talent with end Pierre Allen and tackle Jared Crick.  Crick made 15 total tackles for loss including 9 ½ sacks.  Allen added five sacks and 12 total tackles for loss.  They also combined for nine batted away passes.  There’s royalty in the secondary with the return of Prince Amukamara.  He led the ‘Huskers with 16 passes defended (5 Int/11 PBU). 

Alex Henery is one of the best dual punter/kickers in college football, and Niles Paul is a gem as a kick and punt returner.

We believe that Nebraska has a decent shot at running the table in the regular season.  The October 16 game at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln with Texas is going to be unbelievable, and the Longhorns are going to be treated like Sarah Palin with a chainsaw outside Memorial Stadium in Berkeley.  We think the Cornhuskers will enter the Big 12 Championship game ranked number one and suffer defeat at the hand of their oldest rival.  Still, they should get a bid to a BCS bowl.

South Division

Team Baylor Bears
               
Head Coach Art Briles
               
Colors Green and Gold
               
City Waco, TX
               
2009 Record              
Conference 1-7
Overall 4-8
               
PiRate Rating 103.7
               
National Rating 48
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 3-5
Overall 6-6

 

Strengths: Quarterback, Defensive Back (small strength)

Weaknesses: Running Back (other than QB), Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker

Expected Offense: 26-30 points / 375-400 yards

Expected Defense: 26-30 points / 375-400 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: Sam Houston, Buffalo, @ TCU, @ Rice

Interdivision: Kansas, @ Colorado, Kansas State

Outlook: It starts and ends with quarterback Robert Griffin.  In just over two games, Griffin had passed for 481 yards with four TDs and no interceptions before he went down with a season-ending ACL injury.  If he stays healthy for 12 games, he should pass for close to 3,500 yards and lead Baylor to its first bowl game in 16 years.  The running backs suffered with the loss of Griffin, because defenses had to respect Griffin’s ability to take off and run.  Expect improvement in the rushing attack, but don’t expect the Bears to top 150 yards per game on the ground Jay Finley did rush for 1,072 yards in 2008, but he will not get enough touches to repeat that.  Griffin has a couple of good target to pass to in Kendall Wright and Lanear Sampson, but another receiver needs to emerge.  Three starters return to the offensive line, and Griffin will make their job much easier.

The defense lost six starters, including four of their top five tacklers.  A weaker than Big 12 average defensive line will cause BU some trouble as opponents run the ball to eat the clock and keep Griffin off the field.  The Bear pass rush won’t scare many enemy quarterbacks either.  BU has one talented linebacker in Antonio Johnson.  Johnson’s 77 tackles and two sacks are the most of any returnee.  The defensive backfield would have been a bigger strength had Ahmad Dixon actually showed up.  He was the highest recruit the Bears have had in years and would have started immediately at free safety.  Baylor still has some talent here with cornerbacks Clifton Odom and Chance Casey returning.

Baylor has three winnable non-conference games and three or four more in the Big 12.  We believe they will go 3-5 in the Big 12 and 6-6 overall, which will earn a bid to one of the lower Lone Star state bowl games.

Team Oklahoma Sooners
               
Head Coach Bob Stoops
               
Colors Cream and Crimson
               
City Norman, OK
               
2009 Record              
Conference 5-3
Overall 8-5
               
PiRate Rating 125.6
               
National Rating 3
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 7-1
Overall 12-1

 

Strengths: Quarterback, Running Back, Receiver, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker, Defensive Back, Special Teams

Weaknesses: None really.  If you had to get picky, maybe in the seams of the middle zones on pass defense.

Expected Offense: 35-40 points / 450-475 yards

Expected Defense: 18-22 points / 300-325 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: Utah State, Florida State, Air Force, @ Cincinnati

Interdivision: Iowa State, @ Missouri, @ Texas A&M

Outlook: Can a team that lost the first pick in the draft, three other 1st Round picks, three other draft picks, and three more players that are still in NFL training camps be better than they were a year ago?  It sounds crazy, but OU could not only be better, they could be the best!  Losing Sam Bradford will hardly be noticed, as he only threw 69 passes last year.  Landry Jones returns at quarterback after passing for just under 3,200 yards and 26 touchdowns.  He needs to cut down on his 14 interceptions.  At running back, DeMarco Murray and Jermie Calhoun will team for 1,500 yards, and the Sooners will be a much more balanced team this year.  Murray will not be asked to carry the ball 20 times any more, and he should stay healthy.  The most lethal unit on this team is pass catchers.  Ryan Broyles and Dejuan Miller could both earn all-conference recognition; throw in super freshman Kenny Stills with tight ends Trent Ratteree and James Hanna, and you have one of the nation’s top receiving corps.  The offensive line is the weakest unit of the attack side, and yet it is still one of the four best in the Big 12.

On Defense, the Sooners lost five star players.  Don’t pity them; the players they have coming back are just as good or will soon be.  In the trenches, end Jeremy Beal is the best at his position in the Big 12.  He dumped quarterbacks 11 times last year and stopped runners for losses eight times.  He can drop back in pass coverage on zone blitzes and play pass defense like a linebacker.  Speaking of linebacker, Travis Lewis returns to the second line of defense after earning 1st Team All-Big 12 accolades.  He will have two new partners, and both are stars of the future.  The Sooners have two starters returning to the secondary, led by safety Quinton Carter, who grabbed four enemy quarterback passes while batting away five others.

Oklahoma has the talent to run the table and be 13-0 following a win in the Big 12 Championship Game.  If so, we know where they will be playing in January.  We are going to go out on a small limb and pick one Big 12 team to knock them off in an upset, just like Colorado did to them in 2007.  Call it a 12-1 regular season plus Fiesta Bowl bid.

Team Oklahoma State Cowboys
               
Head Coach Mike Gundy
               
Colors Orange and Black
               
City Stillwater, OK
               
2009 Record              
Conference 6-2
Overall 9-4
               
PiRate Rating 99.8
               
National Rating 59
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 1-7
Overall 5-7

 

Strengths: Running Back, Linebacker

Weaknesses: Quarterback, Offensive Line

Expected Offense: 20-24 points / 325-350 yards

Expected Defense: 23-27 points / 350-375 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: Washington State, Troy, Tulsa, @ Louisiana-Lafayette

Interdivision: Nebraska, @ Kansas State, @ Texas

Outlook: It will be a long season in Stillwater, as the Cowboys must rebuild on both sides of the ball.  OSU returns just four offensive and three defensive starters to a team that many felt underachieved last year.  The rabid fans, in their desire not to play second fiddle in the Sooner State, may chase Coach Mike Gundy out of town if the ‘Pokes fail to make it back to a bowl.

Gundy brought Dana Holgorsen in from Houston to take over as offensive coordinator.  Holgorsen will institute the spread passing game used by the Cougars (which gained 512 yards and 45 points against OSU last year).  His first order of business was to pick a quarterback, and Brandon Weeden will not be confused for Casey Keenum.  Weeden spent five years pitching in the Minor Leagues and has seen a lot more action on the mound than under center.  Having running back Kendall Hunter 100% healthy once again could be the saving grace for this side of the ball.  When healthy in 2008, he rushed for 1,555 yards and earned All-American honors.  He played in just three games last year.  The loss of Dez Bryant to the NFL Cowboys won’t hurt too much, since Bryant hardly played last year.  Holgorsen will use as many as 10 receivers in his pass-happy offense.  Hubert Anyiam should be the star of the group.  The offensive line will be a major liability, as just two starters return.

Oklahoma State allowed just 96 yards rushing last year, but with five (and maybe six pending the outcome of an arrest) of the front seven gone, that number could increase by over 50% this season.  Ugo Chinasa spearheads a respectable pass rush.  In the secondary, amazingly Andrew McGee returns to play after suffering a broken neck last season.  He will team with safety Markelle Martin to provide experience in the back line of defense.

Okie State has a good shot at winning all non-conference games, so they will only need two Big 12 wins to become bowl eligible.  We actually believe they will have a difficult time winning any league game and will call for the Cowboys to go 1-7 in the conference. 

Team Texas Longhorns
               
Head Coach Mack Brown
               
Colors Burnt Orange and White
               
City Austin, TX
               
2009 Record              
Conference 8-0
Overall 13-1
               
PiRate Rating 119.3
               
National Rating 16
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 6-2
Overall 10-2

 

Strengths: Receiver, Defensive Line, Linebacker, Defensive Back, Special Teams

Weaknesses: Quarterback (small weakness)

Expected Offense: 31-34 points / 375-400 yards

Expected Defense: 15-19 points / 275-300 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: @ Rice (Reliant Stad.), Wyoming, UCLA, Florida Atlantic

Interdivision: @ Nebraska, Iowa State, @ Kansas State

Outlook: When any other team loses as much talent as the Longhorns, you can expect a long season.  In Texas, they just insert the next star at each position.  The ‘Horns lost their all-time leading passer, a receiver that caught 116 passes for 1,485 yards, and four starting offensive linemen, and yet UT will still have a lethal offense.  Quarterback Garrett Gilbert got his Baptism under fire last year in the National Championship Game when Colt McCoy was knocked out of the game in the first half.  Gilbert brought the Longhorns back in the second half and gave them a chance.  If he could do that against Alabama, what do you think he will do against Iowa State?  Expect more contribution from the running game with Tre’ Newton and Fozzy Whittaker carrying the load this year.  Texas has a stable of fine receivers as well, led by James Kirkendoll, Malcolm Williams, and John Chiles.  Chiles is an ex-quarterback, and he could be used in some trick plays.

Coach Mack Brown can sleep easier at night with Will Muschamp at his side.  The head coach-in-waiting has made the Longhorn defense the envy of the nation.  His 2010 team will do just fine once he finds a way to plug some holes in the defensive line.  Sam Acho and Kheeston Randall form the conference’s best pair of tackles.  Acho made 10 sacks last year.  Emmanuel Acho heads the second line of defense.  He is a tough run-stopper.  In the secondary, cornerbacks Curtis Brown and Aaron Williams form the best tandem of cover men in the league, but the loss of All-American Earl Thomas will make this a little weaker pass defense.

Texas must play at Nebraska, and if the officiating is honest, we do not believe the Longhorns can win this grudge match-to-be.  The Longhorns have a 50-50 shot with Oklahoma, and they have about a 20% chance of losing to Texas Tech, Texas A&M, or Kansas State.  We’ll call it a 6-2 league mark and 10-2 overall.

Team Texas A&M Aggies
               
Head Coach Mike Sherman
               
Colors Maroon and White
               
City College Station, TX
               
2009 Record              
Conference 3-5
Overall 6-7
               
PiRate Rating 113.5
               
National Rating 26
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 4-4
Overall 7-5

 

Strengths: Quarterback, Running Back, Receiver, Linebacker

Weaknesses: Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Special Teams

Expected Offense: 34-38 points / 475-500 yards

Expected Defense: 26-30 points / 375-400 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: Stephen F Austin, Louisiana Tech, Florida International, Arkansas (n)

Interdivision: Missouri, @ Kansas, Nebraska

Outlook: The Aggies have one of the best offenses in a BCS conference.  With Quarterback Jerrod Johnson running the team, if the offensive line can give him adequate protection, A&M could top 40 points per game.  Johnson passes for 3,579 yards and 30 touchdowns last year, while running for 506 and eight more scores.  Johnson’s ability to take off with the ball really helped the running game to click.  The Aggies return two running backs capable of topping 1,000 yards.  Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray combined for 1,601 yards and 15 touchdowns last year.  At receiver, Johnson has his big three pass catchers returning this year.  Uzoma Nwachukwu, Ryan Tannehill, and Jeff Fuller teamed for 127 receptions (each had at least 40) and 17 touchdowns.  Tannehill is a converted QB, so he could be used on a trick play as a passer.

The defense switches to a 3-4 alignment this year, and there isn’t a star in the trenches.  Last year’s star defensive lineman has been moved to rush linebacker.  Von Miller led the league with 17 sacks, and Coach Mike Sherman hopes he can continue to get into the backfield as a linebacker.  In the secondary, last year’s leading tackler, Trent Hunter, returns after making 95 tackles.

With a powerful offense and an improving defense, there is only one way to go for the Aggies.  Expect Texas A&M to be in almost every game this year and win at least half of their Big 12 contests.  Toss in at least three non-conference wins, and the Aggies will have a winning season.

Team Texas Tech Red Raiders
               
Head Coach Tommy Tuberville
               
Colors Red and Black
               
City Lubbock, TX
               
2009 Record              
Conference 5-3
Overall 9-4
               
PiRate Rating 112.6
               
National Rating 30
               
2010 Prediction              
Conference 5-3
Overall 8-4

 

Strengths: Quarterback, Running Back, Receiver, Defensive Back, Special Teams

Weaknesses: Offensive Line

Expected Offense: 26-30 points / 350-375 yards

Expected Defense: 21-24 points / 325-350 yards

Schedule: Non-conference: S M U, @ New Mexico, Weber State, Houston

Outlook: What a change of philosophies!  The only thing we can compare it to is the change that the University of Cincinnati’s basketball team made when Oscar Robertson graduated in 1960 after taking the Bearcats to three consecutive top five finishes and back-to-back Final Fours.  Coach George Smith left, and UC replaced him with Ed Jucker, who instituted a power offense and pressure defense that produced scores like 70-55 rather than 105-90.

Enter Coach Tommy Tuberville to replace Mike Leach.  Say goodbye to 50 passes a game and hello to 20 runs between the tackles.  Say goodbye to 150 scrimmage plays per game.  Tuberville will not change Tech into a 75% running team, but he will run the ball hard when it is 3rd and two, or 2nd and five.

The Red Raiders return enough quality pieces to continue their winning ways.  Quarterback Taylor Potts has apparently beaten out Steven Sheffield for the starting position.  The two combined for 4,659 passing yards and 36 touchdowns last year.  Whoever starts at quarterback will have nearly every receiver from last season back for more.  Detron Lewis and Alexander Torres lead the way.  Running backs should get more carries in the new system, and Baron Batch has the ability to top 1,000 yards.  He scored 14 touchdowns on just 168 carries last year, and he caught 57 passes out of the backfield.  The offensive line is the only worry.  Tuberville likes quicker, less bulky blockers, but he inherits a couple of 350-pound stationary blockers.

Like many other teams, Tech is switching to the 3-4 defense.  With just one returning defensive line starter, that is a good thing.  Nose tackle Coby Whitlock has the skills to cause havoc in the trenches.  Linebackers Brian Duncan and Bront Bird are strong run-stoppers and very good pass defenders.  The one weakness with the front seven is in pass rushing.  There doesn’t look like there is a competent sack machine in the lot.  That could hurt the secondary, which is the strength of this side.  Free Safety Cody Davis was a 1st Team Freshman All-American last year.

Tuberville is used to winning, and he should guide the Red Raiders back to a bowl.  They could pick up an upset along the way and play spoiler.  By the way, that Cincinnati basketball team fared okay with the change to Ed Jucker.  The Bearcats won the next two National Championships and came within a minute of winning a third in a row.

Coming Tomorrow: The Big Ten started all the conference shuffling and only added one team—to this point.  Find out if there will be any shuffling at the top of the conference standings and whether Rich Rodriguez can keep his job.

Blog at WordPress.com.