The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 6, 2017

PiRate Ratings–NFL For Week 1

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:18 am

Week 1 NFL Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
New England Kansas City 7.4 7.7 6.9
Buffalo N. Y. Jets 7.7 9.6 7.9
Chicago Atlanta -7.7 -6.4 -8.5
Cincinnati Baltimore 2.6 2.0 2.9
Cleveland Pittsburgh -7.9 -8.0 -7.3
Dallas N. Y. Giants 5.0 3.2 4.9
Detroit Arizona 1.1 2.3 0.8
Green Bay Seattle 3.8 5.1 3.6
Houston Jacksonville 7.7 8.4 7.2
LA Rams Indianapolis -1.1 -1.1 -0.9
Miami (Postponed) Tampa Bay x x x
San Francisco Carolina -3.7 -3.4 -3.9
Tennessee Oakland -1.3 -2.2 -1.2
Washington Philadelphia 2.5 3.5 1.9
Denver LA Chargers 4.5 5.0 4.7
Minnesota New Orleans 1.9 4.2 1.7

Week 1 NFL Totals

Home Visitor Total
New England Kansas City 41
Buffalo N. Y. Jets 46
Chicago Atlanta 56
Cincinnati Baltimore 36
Cleveland Pittsburgh 45
Dallas N. Y. Giants 37
Detroit Arizona 47
Green Bay Seattle 47
Houston Jacksonville 37
LA Rams Indianapolis 43
Miami (postponed) Tampa Bay x
San Francisco Carolina 52
Tennessee Oakland 52
Washington Philadelphia 47
Denver LA Chargers 46
Minnesota New Orleans 52

The PiRate Ratings were ready for publication Monday, but our captain, with loads of “oceanic” experience in search of robbing Las Vegans of their gold, gave the orders to hold off a couple days.  Our captain knew that the schedule for week 1 would more than likely change due to Ms. Irma of the Atlantic.

How ironic that this hurricane be named Irma.  Irma is an old name seldom seen these days and maybe after next week, joining Jedidiah, Japath, and other names not used any more.

The NFL schedule makers used to consider weather possibilities when creating the annual slate of games.  Not that Vince Lombardi ever needed the help, but Green Bay frequently began seasons with multiple home games early in the season, while Los Angeles played on the road more early in the season.  Then, when the weather turned raw, the Packers had more road games, while the Rams closed the season with more home games.  By this time, Green Bay had a gaudy won-loss record, while the already eliminated Rams played home games in a rather empty Los Angeles Coliseum, and coaches like Harland Svare suffered the consequences.

The Miami Dolphins and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers now face the task of having to play 16 games in 16 weeks, as Hurricane Irma has forced this Sunday’s opener to be postponed to Week 11.  Because the Dolphins already have one home game in London, it was not feasible that the team would move a second home game away from home.  The right thing for the players would have been to move the game to a location as close as possible without putting it in the path of the hurricane.  A large stadium like Legion Field in Birmingham might have been able to host this game, but this is not an NFL venue, and the NFL usually only relocates games to other NFL stadiums, because there are certain quality standards that must be set.

Moving the game to week 11, when by happenstance both teams have their regularly scheduled bye, is means the Dolphins will not play a real home game until October, and having to play 16 games in 16 weeks will most likely hurt both teams’ chances to make the playoffs this season.  With the concussion protocol rules, the chances of having a full roster of skill position players for 16 consecutive weeks is close to nil.  Players need an extra week off at some point in the meat of the schedule just to nurse the bumps and bruises that make every day life uncomfortable.  This is likely to cost both teams a win or two, as they will not be able to field a healthy roster when they most need a week off.

What you will see in our projected standings reflects what we think will happen.  Both teams were originally selected to become Wildcard Playoff participants before this happened.  Now, both teams are moved out of the playoffs.  The Dolphins are sacrificing the possibility of playoffs for the guarantee of a seventh home game.

2017 Opening NFL PiRate Ratings 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Buffalo 97.4 98.4 97.6 97.8 26
Miami 98.6 99.3 98.0 98.6 24
New England 107.1 107.8 106.9 107.2 20
N. Y. Jets 92.1 91.3 92.1 91.9 20
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Baltimore 100.7 101.1 100.8 100.8 19
Cincinnati 100.2 100.1 100.6 100.3 17
Cleveland 94.3 94.7 94.6 94.5 22
Pittsburgh 104.7 105.1 104.4 104.8 23
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Houston 99.9 100.4 99.4 99.9 15
Indianapolis 99.1 99.3 98.7 99.0 27
Jacksonville 95.2 95.1 95.1 95.1 22
Tennessee 99.4 99.7 98.9 99.3 25
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Denver 101.9 101.4 102.3 101.9 17
Kansas City 102.6 103.1 103.0 102.9 21
LA Chargers 100.4 99.4 100.6 100.1 29
Oakland 103.8 104.9 103.1 103.9 27
           
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Dallas 104.6 103.0 104.5 104.1 23
N.Y. Giants 102.6 102.8 102.6 102.7 14
Philadelphia 100.3 98.9 101.2 100.1 21
Washington 100.2 99.9 100.6 100.2 26
           
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Chicago 94.4 95.0 94.1 94.5 20
Detroit 99.3 100.6 99.0 99.7 21
Green Bay 103.5 104.7 102.9 103.7 29
Minnesota 99.3 99.9 99.5 99.6 17
           
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Atlanta 105.1 104.3 105.7 105.0 36
Carolina 100.2 99.3 100.3 99.9 26
New Orleans 100.5 98.7 100.8 100.0 35
Tampa Bay 100.9 99.9 101.3 100.7 22
           
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Totals
Arizona 101.2 101.3 101.2 101.2 26
LA Rams 94.9 95.2 94.8 95.0 16
San Francisco 92.9 92.5 92.9 92.8 26
Seattle 102.7 102.6 102.3 102.5 18

To estimate spreads, simply subtract the lower rated teams’ ratings from the higher rated teams’ rating.  Then, add your home field advantage of choice.  The PiRates use game specific advantages for each game.

To estimate the total points scored, simply add the two teams’ Totals numbers.

PiRate Ratings Preseason Playoff Projections 

AFC Seeding

1. New England

2. Oakland

3. Pittsburgh

4. Houston

5. Kansas City

6. Baltimore

 

NFC Seeding

1. Seattle

2. Green Bay

3. NY Giants

4. Atlanta

5. Arizona

6. Dallas

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Pittsburgh over Baltimore

Kansas City over Houston

NY Giants over Dallas

Arizona over Atlanta

 

Divisional Playoff Round

New England over Kansas City

Oakland over Pittsburgh

Arizona over Seattle

Green Bay over NY Giants

 

Conference Championship Games

Oakland over New England

Green Bay over Arizona

 

Super Bowl 52

Oakland over Green Bay

Advertisements

December 20, 2016

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 16: December 22-26, 2016

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 9:30 am

This Week’s Playoff Scenarios

There are still more than four billion playoff scenarios with just two weeks left in the season, so it is impossible to list every scenario left.  However, for most teams still in the race, their paths are for the most part clear.

AFC East

New England has clinched the division title and a bye to the Divisional Round.  The Patriots would clinch home field advantage and the top seed by winning out (vs. NYJ, @Mia) or by winning one game while Oakland loses one game or if Oakland loses both games.

 

Miami clinches a wildcard berth by winning one of its remaining two games (@Buf, vs. NE).  The Dolphins cannot make the playoffs at 9-7.

 

Buffalo’s slight chance of earning the #6 seed require the Bills to win twice (vs. Mia, @NYJ), a lot of other things to occur.  The computer lists Buffalo with about a 3% chance of making the playoffs.  Here is one scenario that works.

This Week: Jacksonville must beat Tennessee, Oakland must beat Indianapolis, Cincinnati must beat Houston, and Pittsburgh must beat Baltimore

Next Week: Cincinnati must beat Baltimore, New England must beat Miami, and Oakland must beat Denver

AFC North

Pittsburgh wins the division if they beat Baltimore this week at Heinz Field.  They can still win the division if they lose to Baltimore this week, and then Baltimore loses at Cincinnati while the Steelers defeat Cleveland in the final week.  The Steelers have numerous opportunities of earning a wildcard if they lose this week and win next week to finish 10-6 and very limited opportunities of earning a wildcard if they lose both remaining games.

 

Baltimore can win the division title by winning out or by beating Pittsburgh this week and then both the Steelers and Ravens lose their season finales.  The Ravens have limited possibilities of earning a wildcard if they lose to Pittsburgh and beat Cincinnati to finish 9-7.

 

AFC South

This is an interesting scenario.  As far as the division title goes, it does not matter what Houston does this week against Cincinnati.  In theory, they could rest their starters and lose to the Bengals and then would become division champs if they beat Tennessee in Week 17.  The Texans still have a very slim (less than 1 in 300 chance) of earning a wildcard if they win this week and lose next week, but it is so infinitesimally small, that Houston would be best served by concentrating all their efforts on the Titans.  Then, there is the opportunity to clinch the division this week should Jacksonville upset Tennessee.  The Texans will know the outcome of the Titans’ game before they play Cincinnati.

Tennessee must win out to win the division, or they must beat Houston next week if the Texans and Titans both lose this week.  However, under this scenario, the Titans can only win the division at 9-7 if Indianapolis loses one of its final two games.  The Titans have a slim wildcard chance, but it is a little better than the Texans’ wildcard chance.

 

Indianapolis can still win the division by winning out with Houston losing both of its final two games and Tennessee losing to Jacksonville.   The Colts still have a tiny wildcard shot if they win out.  That chance is smaller than Buffalo’s.

 

AFC West

Oakland must finish a game ahead of Kansas City to win the division.  Two Raider wins, and one Patriot loss would give the Raiders home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.  One Oakland win guarantees a first round bye, but the Raiders can still clinch a bye with two losses if Pittsburgh loses a game.

Kansas City wins the division in any tie with Oakland.  The Chiefs would receive a first round bye if they finish with two wins, and Pittsburgh loses one game.  KC wins the wildcard unless they lose their final two games (vs. Den, @SD) and Baltimore wins out, while Pittsburgh and Miami both finish 10-6.

Denver has numerous possibilities in their route to the #6 seed.  The Broncos must win out (@KC, vs. Oak), and then need help from losses by Miami and Baltimore, or a monumental Cleveland upset of Pittsburgh.

NFC East

Dallas needs one win or one New York Giant loss to clinch the top seed and earn home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs.  If the Cowboys lose twice (@Phi, @Was), and Dallas loses twice (vs. Det, @Phi), and the Giants win twice, the Giants earn home field advantage and the top seed.

New York can still be eliminated with two losses and multiple other scenarios including Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Atlanta, and Detroit finishing 10-6.

Washington is still alive and has a very good shot at a wildcard if they win out (@Chi, vs. NYG), and a very slim chance if they lose one of their last two.

 

NFC North

If Detroit beats Green Bay next week, the Lions win the division regardless of what happens in this weeks game at Dallas.  If Green Bay beats Detroit, then the Packers win the division if the two teams finished tied.  Both teams hold limited wildcard possibilities, with the Lions’ chances more than twice as strong.

 

Minnesota holds very slim wildcard hopes.  The Vikings must beat Green Bay and Chicago and then hope Tampa Bay loses out, Washington loses at least once, and Detroit beats Green Bay.

 

NFC South 

Atlanta and Tampa Bay are both looking good with the majority of scenarios placing both teams in the playoffs.  If Atlanta wins just one of its final two games, there are very few scenarios where the Falcons would be eliminated, and if Tampa Bay wins out, there are even fewer scenarios where they would be eliminated.  The Falcons can earn a bye by winning out to finish 11-5, if Seattle loses one of its final two games.

 

NFC West

Seattle has clinched the division and can clinch a first round bye if they win out.  They cannot clinch the number one seed, as only Dallas and the Giants are alive for the top spot.

 

If The Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1 New England
2 Oakland
3 Pittsburgh
4 Houston
5 Kansas City
6 Miami
   
NFC
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Atlanta
4 Detroit
5 N.Y. Giants
6 Tampa Bay

PiRate Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1 Oakland
2 New England
3 Pittsburgh
4 Tennessee
5 Kansas City
6 Miami
   
NFC Seeding
1 Dallas
2 Seattle
3 Atlanta
4 Detroit
5 New York
6 Tampa Bay

PiRate Playoff Projections Played Out

Wildcard Round
Pittsburgh over Miami
Kansas City over Tennessee
Tampa Bay over Atlanta
N.Y. Giants over Detroit
 
Divisional Round
Oakland over Kansas City
New England over Pittsburgh
Dallas over Tampa Bay
N. Y. Giants over Seattle
 
Conference Championship
Oakland over New England
N. Y. Giants over Dallas
 
Super Bowl 51
N. Y. Giants over Oakland

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
New England 109.7 108.4 110.6 109.6 67 43
Buffalo 101.9 102.1 102.2 102.1 63 39
Miami 99.0 98.8 99.4 99.0 60 39
N. Y. Jets 93.9 93.2 94.1 93.7 57 37
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Pittsburgh 105.3 104.9 105.9 105.4 63 42
Cincinnati 101.4 101.1 101.5 101.4 59 42
Baltimore 100.9 101.8 100.7 101.1 61 40
Cleveland 87.5 88.4 87.3 87.7 55 33
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Indianapolis 100.2 101.5 99.9 100.5 64 37
Tennessee 98.8 99.4 98.8 99.0 61 38
Houston 97.3 98.0 96.7 97.3 60 37
Jacksonville 93.1 94.4 92.6 93.4 58 35
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Kansas City 103.8 103.8 104.2 103.9 64 40
Denver 104.3 103.6 103.7 103.8 62 42
Oakland 102.1 102.6 102.8 102.5 67 36
San Diego 98.9 99.8 98.6 99.1 63 36
             
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Dallas 104.5 103.9 104.9 104.4 62 42
Washington 100.8 100.5 100.7 100.7 62 39
N.Y. Giants 100.2 99.6 100.6 100.1 62 38
Philadelphia 99.7 98.7 99.2 99.2 60 39
             
North PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Green Bay 102.2 102.0 102.0 102.1 66 36
Detroit 100.5 100.3 100.3 100.4 61 39
Minnesota 100.3 100.0 100.0 100.1 57 43
Chicago 94.1 93.1 94.0 93.8 56 38
             
South PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Atlanta 107.5 108.2 107.5 107.7 71 37
Carolina 102.6 102.4 102.9 102.6 60 43
Tampa Bay 101.5 101.6 101.6 101.6 63 39
New Orleans 100.9 101.4 101.3 101.2 68 33
             
West PiRate Mean Bias Avg Off Def
Seattle 106.1 104.0 106.7 105.6 63 43
Arizona 101.5 100.9 101.2 101.2 62 39
Los Angeles 93.7 94.4 93.2 93.8 54 40
San Francisco 88.3 89.3 87.7 88.4 54 34

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias Totals
Philadelphia New York Giants 1.5 1.1 0.6 47
Buffalo Miami 5.9 6.3 5.8 47
Carolina Atlanta -2.4 -3.3 -2.1 51
Chicago Washington -4.2 -4.9 -4.2 43
Cleveland San Diego -8.4 -8.4 -8.3 51
Green Bay Minnesota 4.4 4.5 4.5 45
Jacksonville Tennessee -2.7 -2.0 -3.2 47
New England New York Jets 18.8 18.2 19.5 45
New Orleans Tampa Bay 2.4 2.8 2.7 60
Oakland Indianapolis 4.9 4.1 5.9 60
Los Angeles San Francisco 7.9 7.6 8.0 33
Seattle Arizona 7.6 6.1 8.5 45
Houston Cincinnati -1.1 -0.1 -1.8 40
Pittsburgh Baltimore 6.9 5.6 7.7 43
Kansas City Denver 2.5 3.2 3.5 45
Dallas Detroit 7.0 6.6 7.6 43

 

 

 

December 8, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–December 9-12, 2016

This week, there is only one college game with Army and Navy facing off in Baltimore.  Thus, we must make our selections only from the NFL schedule.  We are throwing caution to the wind, as even though we have a small 6% profit for the season entering this week, we are not going to a stall to guarantee a winning season.  We want to make that Return on Investment top 10%, and thus we are going with three parlays this week.  Each parlay goes off at odds higher than +200, so winning just one of the three would add profit to our imaginary bankroll for the season.

1. NFL Parlay at +220
Indianapolis over Houston
Detroit over Chicago
Tampa Bay over New Orleans

Let us make sure you understand that we are aware of the Colts’ having to make major defensive changes after losing star D’Qwell Jackson for four games due to a suspension for Performance Enhancing substances.  Jackson was the key to the Indy defense, but his loss has made this parlay a better play for us.

The way we see the Colts-Texans game is that Indy will outscore Houston and not have to worry about Jackson missing on the stop side.  Houston has scored just 99 points in their last six games, while Indianapolis with Andrew Luck is a team capable of scoring 35 points in this game.

 

Detroit is ready to wrap up the NFC North Division, and this is a game the Lions should win handily.  The Bears are limping home and might decide to pull a NY Jets this weekend, or at least we hope they might.

 

Tampa Bay is now a slight favorite to win the NFC South with second year quarterback Jameis Winston maturing into a potential star.  The Bucs’ defense is not to be confused with Carolina’s, but TB should be able to match Drew Brees point for point and come up with one or two big plays to win.

 

2. NFL Parlay at +248
Carolina over San Diego
Miami over Arizona

The Panthers and Chargers are now out of the playoff race, and the only reason we believe Carolina will win this game is that San Diego has been forced to do a lot of travelling this season and must go 2,500 miles and three time zones this week.  The game should be a fascinating close match.

 

Miami has a slim chance to earn a wildcard bid, but the Dolphins must win out and then get some help.  Arizona is going nowhere, and they too must travel across the country.

 

3. NFL Parlay at +211
N. Y. Jets over San Francisco
New England over Baltimore

The key to this parlay is whether the Jets will show that Monday night was a fluke.  Will the team show up for Todd Bowles and give him a chance to keep his job?  Just a normal effort would be enough to lead NY to victory over a 49ers team that may be weaker than Cleveland at the present time.

 

We are throwing the Patriots into this parlay to bring the odds up over +200.  Baltimore will not lay down in this game and allow New England to win going away, and the Pats will have to bring their A-game without Gronk.  However, we believe (hope) the Pats realize they are now in a dogfight for the #1 seed and understand that this is a must-win game.

 

 

 

 

November 24, 2015

NFL Preview For Week 12: November 26-30, 2015

In The Backstretch

The horses are in the backstretch positioning themselves as they approach the final turn to the homestretch, and we see some horses beginning to fade while some of the closers are beginning to make their move.

The Atlanta Falcons were once among the leaders in the opening furlong, but they are now in danger of falling out of the money. The Seattle Seahawks are running a bad race so far, but they do have a closing kick that could get them on the board. The Cincinnati Bengals were once in the lead by a couple lengths, but they have faltered some and now can just barely see the tail of the American Pharoah known as New England.

The horses making their moves as the final turn approaches include a couple that may be ready to finish strong and hit the board, while there are others that waited too late and have too many lenghts to make up. The Kansas City Chiefs have hit their stride and may be on pace to pass the Denver Broncos down the stretch. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have waited too late, but they have a chance to sneak into the money at the end. The Dallas Cowboys started strong out of the gate and then almost threw their jockey who had to hang on to get back in the stirrups just in the last 70 yards. Now, even though they are several lengths behind the field, there is a possibility they could lap the three horses they must defeat to get into the next race.

In football terms, there are six weeks left in the season. In the NFC, Carolina is a lock to make the playoffs, while Arizona is almost a lock. Green Bay and Minnesota appear to be in control of making the playoffs, but it is still undecided which team will be the NFC North Champion and which team will be a wild card.

The NFC East and the other wild card are still up in the air. In the NFC East, the New York Giants hold a one-game lead over the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins, and a two-game lead over Dallas. Any of the four teams could win the weak division.

As for the final wild card berth, Atlanta now leads Seattle and Tampa Bay by just one game. The Falcons are fading fast after a fast start.

In the AFC, New England is the one definite team in the playoffs. The Bills and Jets are now both five games back with six to go, and they are both in danger of falling out of the wild card race.

Cincinnati has now dropped two straight games, and the Bengals need to get back on the winning track before they can be considered a safe bet to win their division. Pittsburgh has the talent to finish 4-2, which would give the Steelers a 10-6 record.

Denver is going to limp home in the final six weeks, and at 8-2, there is no guarantee they would not collapse without Peyton Manning at QB or with an injured Manning that is not a good fit for the Gary Kubiak offense. Kansas City has hit their stride, and the Chiefs detroyed Denver a couple weeks ago. K-C could finish 10-6, and Denver could fall to 9-7, but it is still a long shot proposition.

The South is now a three-team race to 9-7 or even 8-8. Indianapolis has begun to show signs of life again, but Houston is playing its best ball of the year now as well. Jacksonville is just a game back and is just an upset or two away from being able to finish 9-7.

Here is how the playoffs would look if the season ends today.

AFC
1 New England
2 Cincinnati
3 Denver
4 Indianapolis
5 Pittsburgh
6 Kansas City
   
NFC
1 Carolina
2 Arizona
3 Green Bay
4 N. Y. Giants
5 Minnesota
6 Atlanta

Here is the consensus of the PiRates as to how the teams will finish.

AFC SEED TEAM
1 New England
2 Cincinnati
3 Kansas City
4 Indianapolis
5 Denver
6 Pittsburgh
     
NFC SEED TEAM
1 Carolina
2 Arizona
3 Green Bay
4 Philadelphia
5 Minnesota
6 Atlanta
     
Wildcard Playoff Round
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
Indianapolis over Denver
Green Bay over Atlanta
Minnesota over Philadelphia
 
Divisional Playoff Round
New England over Indianapolis
Kansas City over Cincinnati
Carolina over Minnesota
Arizona over Green Bay
 
Conference Championship Round
New England over Kansas City
Arizona over Carolina
 
Super Bowl 50
Arizona over New England

 

This Week’s Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas 102.4 101.0 101.7 101.7 3-7-0 190 228
N.Y. Giants 101.3 101.5 102.2 101.7 5-5-0 273 253
Philadelphia 100.4 99.8 100.4 100.2 4-6-0 229 229
Washington 95.4 95.0 94.8 95.1 4-6-0 221 253
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 105.9 105.1 105.4 105.5 7-3-0 249 198
Minnesota 102.4 101.3 103.1 102.3 7-3-0 211 184
Chicago 98.5 98.9 99.6 99.0 4-6-0 214 251
Detroit 97.3 96.1 96.2 96.5 3-7-0 185 274
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Carolina 107.0 107.5 108.5 107.7 10-0-0 299 191
Atlanta 98.0 97.8 97.8 97.9 6-4-0 250 214
Tampa Bay 96.0 96.7 96.1 96.3 5-5-0 236 254
New Orleans 94.3 92.0 94.1 93.5 4-6-0 255 315
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 108.3 108.1 109.4 108.6 8-2-0 336 216
Seattle 105.8 104.9 105.2 105.3 5-5-0 228 192
St. Louis 96.1 96.8 96.3 96.4 4-6-0 179 199
San Francisco 95.0 93.5 94.6 94.4 3-7-0 139 252
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 111.5 111.7 111.4 111.5 10-0-0 323 182
Buffalo 101.4 102.3 101.7 101.8 5-5-0 244 227
N. Y. Jets 99.3 99.6 98.7 99.2 5-5-0 234 208
Miami 98.2 98.8 97.7 98.2 4-6-0 205 249
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Cincinnati 105.0 105.9 105.8 105.6 8-2-0 266 186
Pittsburgh 103.8 104.0 103.7 103.8 6-4-0 236 191
Baltimore 100.4 99.4 99.7 99.8 3-7-0 226 249
Cleveland 93.1 92.2 92.5 92.6 2-8-0 186 277
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 101.0 101.4 101.3 101.2 5-5-0 224 248
Houston 97.8 99.4 98.2 98.5 5-5-0 208 228
Jacksonville 92.4 95.3 92.5 93.4 4-6-0 211 268
Tennessee 91.9 91.8 91.8 91.8 2-8-0 182 233
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Kansas City 105.0 105.9 105.6 105.5 5-5-0 257 198
Denver 104.1 103.3 103.6 103.7 8-2-0 222 183
San Diego 95.5 95.2 95.0 95.2 2-8-0 213 282
Oakland 95.5 97.8 95.4 96.2 4-6-0 240 259

 

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: 12      
Date of Games: November 26-30      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Detroit Philadelphia -0.6 -1.2 -1.7
Dallas Carolina -1.6 -3.5 -3.8
Green Bay Chicago 9.9 8.7 8.3
Tennessee Oakland -0.6 -3.0 -0.6
Kansas City Buffalo 6.6 6.6 6.9
Indianapolis Tampa Bay 8.0 7.7 8.2
Washington NY Giants -3.4 -4.0 -4.9
Houston New Orleans 6.0 9.9 6.6
Atlanta Minnesota -1.9 -1.0 -2.8
Cincinnati St. Louis 11.9 12.1 12.5
Jacksonville San Diego 0.4 3.6 1.0
NY Jets Miami 4.1 3.8 4.0
San Francisco Arizona -10.8 -12.1 -12.3
Seattle Pittsburgh 5.0 3.9 4.5
Denver New England -4.4 -5.4 -4.8
Cleveland Baltimore -4.8 -4.7 -4.7

 

August 31, 2013

2013 NFC South Division Preview

2013 N F C South Preview

The South Division of the NFC was a one-team race last year with the Atlanta Falcons quickly separating from the pack and cruising to a six-game defeat of the other three teams.  It was expected after the New Orleans Saints entered the season with coaching suspensions.  By the time the Saints started to turn things around, it was too late.

 

2013 should be an interesting season.  The Falcons once again look like the class of the division, but of course with scheduling, they will play two other first place teams from last year, while New Orleans and Carolina face easier competition in those two games.  Tampa Bay also faces an easier schedule, but we do not believe the Buccaneers can rock the boat in the South this year.

 

Next to Green Bay, Atlanta has the best passing attack in the NFC.  Matt Ryan is quickly becoming one of the elite passers in the league, while Julio Jones, Roddy White, and the ageless wonder, tight end Tony Gonzalez, form a top-notch receiving corps.  If Steven Jackson has one more good year in his legs, the Falcons just may be ready to advance that final step to the Super Bowl.

 

New Orleans had the best offense in the NFC last year, by 25 points over the second best team.  On the other hand, the Saints gave up the most points in the NFC by 10 points.  Thus, the Saints finished 7-9.  Can new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan work magic on a defense that played like 11 matadors last year?  On top of the improvement needed, the Saints will switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 alignment.  And, they will not get much immediate help from their draft class.

 

Carolina has enough talent now to contend for a playoff berth.  Cam Newton may not complete 60% of his passes, but he will average more per completion than average.  He will also be hard on enemy pass rushers with his ability to make them miss.  A nice defensive rush that might result in a sack on most QBs, could very well result in a 10 to 20 yard gain on a scramble.

 

The Panthers will have to get by without Jonathan Stewart for six games after he was placed on the PUP list.  DeAngelo Williams is starting to show his age, so the Panthers may struggle unless rookie Kenjon Barner can take up the slack.  The receiving corps is average at best, and the offensive line is better blocking for the run than the pass.

 

The Panthers should be improved this year because their defense looks much better, especially in the line and at linebacker.  Look for rookie tackle Star Lotulelei to be a key right away.  He won’t make 10 tackles a game, but he will command double blocks on several plays, and that will allow the linebackers to look much better.

 

Tampa Bay overachieved last year, and they still finished below .500.  The Buccaneers are average or below average at every unit on offense and defense.  Quarterback Josh Freeman won’t appear on the all-pro list, and he won’t get a lot of hype, but he can pass for 300 yards on many Sundays.  However, he tends to force passes and threw too many interceptions last year.  He will continue to stretch defenses with longer passes, because that will open up running lanes for second year star back Doug Martin, one of the biggest surprises in the league last year.  Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams make up a talented one-two punch at wideout, but the Bucs need more skill players to emerge.  The defense does not have enough talent to compete for a playoff spot this year.

 

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

 

Here are the official colors for the NFC South.

West

Color

Red

Green

Blue

Atlanta Falcons

Black

17

28

36

 

Red

198

12

48

 

White

255

255

255

Carolina Panthers

Panther Blue

0

136

206

 

Black

17

28

36

 

Metallic Silver

133

136

139

New Orleans Saints

Old Gold

150

130

82

 

Black

17

28

36

 

White

255

255

255

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Red

167

25

48

 

Pewter

102

92

79

 

Black

17

28

36

 

 

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Atlanta Falcons

104.7

105.6

106.3

13-3-0

419

299

New Orleans Saints

100.7

100.2

99.9

7-9-0

461

454

Carolina Panthers

99.7

100.0

101.4

7-9-0

357

363

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

98.6

97.6

96.8

7-9-0

389

394

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Atlanta Falcons

103.6

106.6

103.1

New Orleans Saints

101.7

102.0

101.6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

98.5

98.1

98.7

Carolina Panthers

98.4

97.7

98.1

 

PiRate Previews

Team

Atlanta Falcons

               
Head Coach

Mike Smith

O-Coord.

Dirk Koetter

D-Coord.

Mike Nolan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Matt Ryan

Running Back

Steven Jackson

Fullback

Bradie Ewing

Wide Receiver

Julio Jones

Wide Receiver

Roddy White

Tight End

Tony Gonzalez

Left Tackle

Sam Baker

Left Guard

Justin Blalock

Center

Peter Konz

Right Guard

Garrett Reynolds

Right Tackle

Lamar Holmes

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Kroy Biermann

Left Tackle

Jonathan Babineaux

Right Tackle

Corey Peters

Right End

Osi Umenyiora

Sam LB

Stephen Nicholas

Mike LB

Akeem Dent

Will LB

Sean Weatherspoon

Left CB

Asante Samuel

Right CB

Desmond Trufant

Strong Safety

William Moore

Free Safety

Thomas Decoud

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Matt Bryant

Punter

Matt Bosher

K-Return

Jacquizz Rodgers

P-Return

Dominique Franks

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

12-4

Division

1st

 

Team

Carolina Panthers

               
Head Coach

Ron Rivera

O-Coord.

Mike Shula

D-Coord.

Sean McDermott

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Cam Newton

Running Back

DeAngelo Williams

Fullback

Mike Tolbert

Wide Receiver

Steve Smith

Wide Receiver

Brandon LaFell

Tight End

Greg Olsen

Left Tackle

Jordan Gross

Left Guard

Amini Silatolu

Center

Ryan Kalil

Right Guard

Garry Williams

Right Tackle

Byron Bell

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Charles Johnson

Left Tackle

Dwan Edwards

Nose Tackle

Star Lotulelei

Right End

Greg Hardy

Sam LB

Thomas Davis

Mike LB

Luke Kuechly

Will LB

Jon Beason

Left CB

Drayton Florence

Right CB

Captain Munnerlyn

Strong Safety

Mike Mitchell

Free Safety

Charles Godfrey

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Graham Gano

Punter

Brad Nortman

K-Return

Ted Ginn

P-Return

Ted Ginn

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

8-8

Division

3rd

Team

New Orleans Saints

               
Head Coach

Sean Payton

O-Coord.

Pete Carmichael

D-Coord.

Rob Ryan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Drew Brees

Running Back

Pierre Thomas

Fullback

Jed Collins

Wide Receiver

Lance Moore

Wide Receiver

Marques Colston

Tight End

Jimmy Graham

Left Tackle

Charles Brown

Left Guard

Ben Grubbs

Center

Brian De La Puente

Right Guard

Jahri Evans

Right Tackle

Zach Strief

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Akiem Hicks

Nose Tackle

Brodrick Bunkley

Right End

Cameron Jordan

Left OLB

Junior Galette

Left ILB

Jonathan Vilma

Right ILB

Curtis Lofton

Right OLB

Martez Wilson

Left CB

Jabari Greer

Right CB

Keenan Lewis

Strong Safety

Roman Harper

Free Safety

Malcolm Jenkins

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Garrett Hartley

Punter

Thomas Morstead

K-Return

Darren Sproles

P-Return

Darren Sproles

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

9-7

Division

2nd

Team

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

               
Head Coach

Greg Schiano

O-Coord.

Mike Sullivan

D-Coord.

Bill Sheridan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Projected Starting Lineup

Position

Player

 

Offense

Quarterback

Josh Freeman

Running Back

Doug Martin

Fullback

Erik Lorig

Wide Receiver

Vincent Jackson

Wide Receiver

Mike Williams

Tight End

Luke Stocker

Left Tackle

Donald Penn

Left Guard

Carl Nicks

Center

Jeremy Zuttah

Right Guard

Davin Joseph

Right Tackle

Dernar Dotson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Defense

Left End

Da’Quan Bowers

Left Tackle

Gerald McCoy

Right Tackle

Gary Gibson

Right End

Adrian Clayborn

Sam LB

Dekoda Watson

Mike LB

Mason Foster

Will LB

Lavonte David

Left CB

Darrelle Revis

Right CB

Leonard Johnson

Strong Safety

Mark Barron

Free Safety

Dashon Goldson

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Special Teams

Kicker

Lawrence Tynes

Punter

Michael Koenen

K-Return

Mike James

P-Return

Eric Page

 

 

Predictions

 

Record

6-10

Division

4th

 

December 29, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 17–January 2, 2011

Did You Enjoy Your Christmas Gift?

Last week as our Christmas gift to you, we gave all our readers a free 13-point teaser parlay for you to play.  It was a winner!  Let’s take a look at it once again.

 

Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina

Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington

Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland

Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis

Thanks to an excellent QB draw by David Garrard, the Jaguars force overtime with Washington and lost on a field goal, which was okay for this parlay.  Oakland scored a late TD to prevent the Colts from threatening to ruin the parlay at the end of the day.  Pittsburgh and Baltimore were never in doubt.  Did you use this and win?

 

NFL Playoff Possibilities

NFC

East

Philadelphia

Clinched the division and will be the number three seed no matter what happens this week

 

New York Giants

Can get in as a Wildcard two ways

1. A win over Washington and Green Bay loses or ties

2. A tie with Washington and a both a Green Bay loss and Tampa Bay loss or tie

 

North

Chicago

Clinched the division and has earned a first round bye regardless of what happens this week

They can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win plus an Atlanta loss and a New Orleans loss or tie

 

Green Bay 

Can earn a Wildcard spot three different ways

1. A win over the Bears automatically gives them a Wildcard

2. If they lose to the Bears, they still qualify if both the Giants and Tampa Bay also lose

3. If they tie the Bears, they qualify as a Wildcard if both the Giants and Tampa Bay lose or tie

 

South

Atlanta

Has not clinched the division, but a win or tie over Carolina clinches it 

They also would clinch with a New Orleans loss or tie 

If they win the division, they will also clinch a first-round bye. 

Can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs if they win or tie or if Chicago and New Orleans both lose or tie

 

New Orleans

Has clinched a playoff spot 

If the Saints win and Atlanta loses, they would become division champions and earn home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs

 

Tampa Bay

Can still earn a Wildcard spot with a win over the Saints plus a Green Bay loss or tie and a Giants loss or tie

 

West

The winner of the St. Louis—Seattle game will clinch the division and earn the number four seed 

If they tie, the Rams win the division

 

AFC

East

New England

Has already clinched home-field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs

 

New York Jets

Have clinched a Wildcard spot.

 

North

Pittsburgh and Baltimore have already clinched playoff spots

 

Pittsburgh

Can clinch the division and earn the other first-round bye three different ways

1. A win over Cleveland

2. A tie with Cleveland coupled with a loss or tie by Baltimore

3. A loss to Cleveland, coupled with a loss by Baltimore

 

Pittsburgh can be a #2 seed with a win, but they could fall all the way to #6 if they lose and both Baltimore and the Jets win.

 

Baltimore 

Can clinch the division and earn a first-round bye two ways

1. A win over Cincinnati coupled by a Pittsburgh loss or tie

2. A tie with Cincinnati and a Pittsburgh loss.

 

South

This division has not yet been decided 

The division winner will play in the opening week in the Wildcard Playoff round

 

Indianapolis

Clinches the division with a win or tie or a Jacksonville loss or tie 

 

The Colts would be the number three seed if they win and Kansas City loses and the number four seed if they win the division and Kansas City wins or ties

 

Jacksonville

Can clinch the division with a win over Houston and  Indianapolis loss to Tennessee 

The Jaguars would be the number four seed.

 

West

Kansas City

Has already clinched the division title and will play in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs 

If they win or tie or if Indianapolis loses or ties, the Chiefs would be the third seed 

If they lose and Indianapolis wins, the Chiefs will be the fourth seed

 

 Here is our projected Playoff bracket

NFC

#6 Green Bay at #3 Philadelphia

#5 New Orleans at #4 St. Louis

 

#2 Chicago hosts the better remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round

 

#1 Atlanta hosts the worse remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round

 

AFC

#6 Pittsburgh at #3 Kansas City

#5 New York Jets at #4 Indianapolis

 

#2 Baltimore hosts the better remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round

 

#1 New England hosts the worse remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round

 

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
Listed By PiRate Rating                  
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Philadelphia  10 5 0 426 363 105.9 104.0 104.7
NY Giants 9 6 0 377 333 103.6 102.5 102.2
Dallas  5 10 0 380 423 97.9 98.4 96.6
Washington  6 9 0 288 360 94.3 97.0 97.4
 

 

                   
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay  9 6 0 378 237 111.2 109.2 106.8
Chicago  11 4 0 331 276 103.9 104.4 105.0
Detroit 5 10 0 342 356 98.4 100.5 100.1
Minnesota 6 9 0 268 328 97.4 98.1 99.4
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New Orleans 11 4 0 371 284 107.0 105.3 107.0
Atlanta 12 3 0 383 278 106.6 105.7 105.8
Tampa Bay 9 6 0 318 305 100.0 100.2 101.0
Carolina 2 13 0 186 377 90.2 88.4 88.3
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 5 10 0 267 339 96.2 94.5 96.7
St. Louis 7 8 0 283 312 95.6 94.9 99.0
Seattle 6 9 0 294 401 92.0 91.6 94.1
Arizona 5 10 0 282 396 89.0 91.4 91.0
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 13 2 0 480 306 115.3 113.2 112.0
NY Jets 10 5 0 329 297 102.7 102.9 103.9
Miami 7 8 0 266 295 99.1 99.2 98.2
Buffalo 4 11 0 276 387 95.8 96.3 95.8
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Baltimore 11 4 0 344 263 107.0 106.2 106.0
Pittsburgh 11 4 0 334 223 105.5 105.7 106.2
Cleveland 5 10 0 262 291 99.3 98.2 94.4
Cincinnati 4 11 0 315 382 97.9 97.9 95.3
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 9 6 0 412 368 102.2 102.5 103.1
Jacksonville 8 7 0 336 385 98.7 97.7 98.4
Houston 5 10 0 356 410 98.0 97.7 96.5
Tennessee 6 9 0 336 316 93.9 98.3 95.8
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 8 7 0 408 294 104.3 105.0 102.2
Kansas City 10 5 0 356 295 100.9 101.8 102.7
Oakland 7 8 0 379 361 98.9 99.0 100.5
Denver 4 11 0 316 438 91.7 92.3 94.1

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS          
Ratings Do Not Reflect Resting of Regulars by Teams That Have Nothing to Play for
Week 17: January 2, 2011          
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EST Wednesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
KANSAS CITY Oakland 6.0 6.8 6.2 3 1/2 43 ½
NEW ENGLAND Miami 19.2 17.0 16.8 3    43   
INDIANAPOLIS Tennessee 11.3 7.2 10.3 9 1/2 48   
Jacksonville HOUSTON 2.7 2.0 3.9 2 1/2 49 ½
Pittsburgh CLEVELAND 2.2 3.5 7.8 6    37   
BALTIMORE Cincinnati 12.1 11.3 13.7 9 1/2 43   
DETROIT Minnesota 5.0 6.4 4.7 NL NL
WASHINGTON New York Giants 6.3 2.5 1.8 4    44 ½
GREEN BAY Chicago 10.3 7.8 4.8 NL NL
PHILADELPHIA Dallas 10.0 7.6 10.1 NL NL
NEW YORK JETS Buffalo 9.9 9.6 11.1 3    35 ½
ATLANTA Carolina 19.4 20.3 20.5 14 1/2 41   
NEW ORLEANS Tampa Bay 9.0 7.1 8.0 7 1/2 47   
SEATTLE

St. Louis 0.4 0.7 -0.9 3    41 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO Arizona 11.2 7.1 9.7 6    38 ½
San Diego DENVER 8.6 8.7 4.1 3 1/2 47   
             

 

Note to our subscription clients:  We will not issue an “official” pick for this week’s games because we do not like any of the possible parlays; too many teams have nothing to play for, but at the same time, this does not mean they will not use their regulars for four quarters.

 

 We will only issue three unofficial picks.  We advise you to take everything off the table unless you want to speculate with profits.

December 21, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010

Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers.  We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship.

So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today.

2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread.

We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact.

For instance, we made just one selection last week.  It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won.  We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick.  We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog.  All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection.

We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from.  We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition.

We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon.  Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift.  We hope it is a winning one.  Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy.

Here it is:

We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser.  For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games.  If all four games win, you win the parlay.  If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose.

There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser.  Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two.  Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog.  If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points.  That is not in your favor.  Winning teams often win games by 14 points.  

Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog.  Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog.  Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18.

Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog.  A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog.

Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals.  If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10.

The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection.  Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite.  Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference.  One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection.  However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog.  The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay.

If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game.  For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15.

Here is our Christmas gift to you.

1. 13-point teaser parlay

Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina

Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington

Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland

Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis

 

Here is our reasoning for these four games.  Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday.  Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  This is a perfect setup for the Steelers.  Carolina has nothing to play for in this game.  This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one.

Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing.  Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival.  They will not have much left in the tank this week.  Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out.  The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title.  You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright.

Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title.  The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17.  The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week.  We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay.  We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times.

We love the Raiders in this West Coast game.  Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes.  Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game.  Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City.  They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.  They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once.  We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points.

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                     
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Philadelphia 10 4 0 412 339 108.2 105.9 106.6
NY Giants 9 5 0 360 288 105.9 104.3 103.5
Dallas 5 9 0 354 396 98.7 99.2 99.8
Washington 5 9 0 268 343 93.9 96.9 95.4
Bitmap

 
                   
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay 8 6 0 333 220 108.9 107.2 105.2
Chicago 10 4 0 293 242 103.8 104.4 104.9
Detroit 4 10 0 308 329 97.3 99.7 97.8
Minnesota 5 9 0 244 314 95.1 95.9 94.2
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Atlanta 12 2 0 369 261 107.7 106.1 107.2
New Orleans 10 4 0 354 270 105.9 103.8 105.2
Tampa Bay 8 6 0 280 290 98.6 98.9 100.3
Carolina 2 12 0 183 350 90.5 88.7 90.1
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 5 9 0 250 314 96.6 95.3 98.0
St. Louis 6 8 0 258 295 95.2 94.9 96.4
Seattle 6 8 0 279 363 93.4 93.1 95.1
Arizona 4 10 0 255 370 88.2 90.6 88.2
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 12 2 0 446 303 112.8 110.6 110.9
NY Jets 10 4 0 295 259 102.8 103.3 103.8
Miami 7 7 0 239 261 100.2 100.0 99.7
Buffalo 4 10 0 273 353 98.3 98.0 97.7
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Baltimore 10 4 0 324 253 106.7 105.4 106.2
Pittsburgh 10 4 0 307 220 105.2 105.4 106.5
Cleveland 5 9 0 252 271 99.6 98.3 95.0
Cincinnati 3 11 0 281 362 95.3 95.9 94.3
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 8 6 0 381 342 101.2 102.2 101.5
Jacksonville 8 6 0 319 365 99.1 99.0 101.0
Houston 5 9 0 333 386 98.7 98.0 97.2
Tennessee 6 8 0 322 282 95.4 100.3 98.2
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 8 6 0 388 260 106.9 106.3 105.9
Oakland 7 7 0 353 330 99.9 99.7 101.3
Kansas City 9 5 0 322 281 99.4 100.7 99.6
Denver 3 11 0 292 415 91.0 91.8 93.2

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
       
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
PITTSBURGH Carolina 18.7 20.7 20.4 13.5 37
Dallas ARIZONA 7.5 5.6 8.6 6.5 45
MIAMI Detroit 4.9 2.3 3.9 3.5 41.5
PHILADELPHIA Minnesota 16.1 13 15.4 NL NL
JACKSONVILLE Washington 8.2 5.1 8.6 7 45.5
ST. LOUIS San Francisco 1.6 2.6 1.4 2.5 39.5
TAMPA BAY Seattle 7.2 7.8 7.2 6 44
New England BUFFALO 12.5 10.6 13.2 7.5 44
CHICAGO New York Jets 4 4.1 4.1 2.5 36
Baltimore CLEVELAND 4.1 4.1 8.2 3.5 38.5
KANSAS CITY Tennessee 8 4.4 5.4 5 42
OAKLAND Indianapolis 1.7 0.5 2.8 -3 47
Houston DENVER 4.7 3.2 1 3 48.5
GREEN BAY
New York Giants 6 5.9 4.7 NL NL
San Diego CINCINNATI 8.6 7.4 8.6 7.5 44
ATLANTA New Orleans 5.8 6.3 6 2.5 48.5

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

N F C

1. Atlanta 13-3

2. Philadelphia 12-4

3. Chicago 11-5

4. San Francisco 7-9

5. New Orleans 12-4

6. Green Bay 10-6

 

A F C

1. New England 14-2

2. Baltimore 12-4

3. San Diego 10-6

4. Jacksonville 10-6

5. New York Jets 11-5

6. Pittsburgh 11-5

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Chicago over Green Bay

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Philadelphia over Chicago

Atlanta over New Orleans

 

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

New England over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate QB Passer Rating 


Player Team G AYPA Int % PiRate
Tom Brady NE 14 6.8 0.89 114.2
Michael Vick PHI 11 6.6 1.52 107.6
Matt Cassel KC 13 5.8 1.31 105.0
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 10 6 1.49 104.5
Josh Freeman TB 14 5.7 1.42 103.4
Phillip Rivers SD 14 7 2.37 102.3
Vince Young TEN 9 6.2 1.92 101.8
Joe Flacco BAL 14 5.7 1.77 100.3
Kyle Orton DEN 13 5.6 1.81 99.5
Colt McCoy CLE 6 5.7 1.97 98.6
Matt Ryan ATL 14 5.2 1.76 97.6
Matt Schaub HOU 14 5.6 2.12 96.7
Aaron Rodgers GB 13 6.1 2.44 96.7
Peyton Manning IND 14 5.6 2.46 93.7
Kevin Kolb PHI 6 4.9 2.61 88.4
Mark Sanchez NYJ 14 4.6 2.55 87.3
Tony Romo DAL 6 5.7 3.29 87.0
Jason Campbell OAK 11 5.1 3.05 85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 12 4.9 2.97 85.3
Jon Kitna DAL 9 5.4 3.36 84.7
Drew Brees NO 14 5.2 3.33 83.8
Sam Bradford STL 14 4.1 2.71 83.1
Kerry Collins TEN 8 4.5 2.97 83.1
Donovan McNabb WAS 13 4.8 3.18 82.9
Shaun Hill DET 9 4.4 3.13 81.1
Jay Cutler CHI 13 4.9 3.53 80.4
Derek Anderson ARI 12 4.1 3.06 80.0
Chad Henne MIA 13 4.7 3.48 79.7
Alex Smith SF 9 4.4 3.36 79.1
Carson Palmer CIN 14 4.4 3.46 78.2
Jimmie Clausen CAR 11 3.1 2.88 76.0
Eli Manning NYG 14 5 4.19 75.1
David Garrard JAX 13 4.6 3.96 74.9
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 13 4.3 3.86 74.1
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 6 4 4.43 67.4
Jake Delhomme CLE 5 3.3 4.70 61.1
Brett Favre MIN 13 4 5.31 59.7
Matt Moore CAR 6 2 6.99 33.7
           
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

December 14, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                     
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
NY Giants 9 4 0 329 250 107.1 105.4 105.6
Philadelphia  9 4 0 374 308 107.0 105.4 105.6
Dallas  4 9 0 321 366 99.0 99.8 99.9
Washington  5 8 0 238 310 93.6 95.8 92.6
 NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay 8 5 0 306 189 108.6 106.7 105.0
Chicago 9 4 0 253 228 101.6 101.7 103.2
Minnesota 5 8 0 230 274 97.3 98.4 97.5
Detroit 3 10 0 285 309 96.5 98.1 94.8
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Atlanta 11 2 0 335 243 106.9 106.1 107.5
New Orleans 10 3 0 330 240 106.3 105.0 106.6
Tampa Bay 8 5 0 260 267 99.4 99.9 101.2
Carolina 1 12 0 164 338 90.3 88.9 89.4
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 5 8 0 243 280 98.2 97.1 99.8
St. Louis 6 7 0 245 268 96.5 95.7 98.0
Seattle 6 7 0 261 329 94.2 93.7 96.5
Arizona 4 9 0 243 351 88.4 91.3 92.5
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 11 2 0 415 276 113.1 111.8 111.1
NY Jets 9 4 0 273 242 101.6 101.1 102.5
Miami 7 6 0 225 244 101.2 101.4 101.9
Buffalo 3 10 0 256 339 97.3 97.1 96.0
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Pittsburgh 10 3 0 290 198 106.4 106.2 107.4
Baltimore 9 4 0 294 229 106.3 104.8 105.4
Cleveland 5 8 0 235 252 99.9 99.1 96.9
Cincinnati 2 11 0 262 345 95.0 95.1 93.9
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 7 6 0 347 318 100.7 101.3 101.7
Houston 5 8 0 316 355 100.2 100.0 99.0
Jacksonville 8 5 0 295 331 99.6 99.8 101.8
Tennessee 5 8 0 291 265 93.9 97.8 93.7
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 7 6 0 354 253 105.3 105.9 104.2
Oakland 6 7 0 314 307 99.2 99.1 99.8
Kansas City 8 5 0 295 268 98.1 98.6 99.5
Denver 3 10 0 269 376 91.7 92.3 89.7

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads  
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
               
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010            
Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday            
               
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals  
SAN DIEGO San Francisco 11.1 12.8 8.4 8 1/2 44 1/2  
ST. LOUIS Kansas City 1.4 0.1 2.5 NL NL  
Houston TENNESSEE 3.3 -0.8 2.3 -1 1/2 47     
INDIANAPOLIS Jacksonville 4.1 4.5 2.9 5    48 1/2  
CAROLINA Arizona 4.9 0.6 -0.1 2 1/2 37 1/2  
Cleveland CINCINNATI 1.9 1.0 3.0 -2    40     
MIAMI Buffalo 5.9 6.3 7.9 5 1/2 41     
NEW YORK GIANTS Philadelphia 3.1 3.0 3.0 2 1/2 46     
DALLAS Washington 8.4 7.0 10.3 6    45     
TAMPA BAY Detroit 4.9 3.8 8.4 6    43     
BALTIMORE New Orleans 3.0 2.8 1.8 2    43 1/2  
Atlanta SEATTLE 8.7 8.4 7.0 6    45     
PITTSBURGH New York Jets 8.8 9.1 8.9 6    35 1/2  
OAKLAND   Denver 10.5 9.8 13.1 6 1/2 44     
NEW ENGLAND Green Bay 7.5 8.1 9.1 NL NL  
Chicago MINNESOTA 1.3 0.3 2.7 NL NL  
               
PiRate Passer # 

Player

Team G AYPA Int% PiRate #    
Tom Brady NE 13 6.9 0.94 114.4    
Michael Vick PHI 10 6.8 1.36 110.1    
Matt Cassel KC 12 5.9 1.13 107.1    
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 9 6.2 1.72 103.6    
Josh Freeman TB 13 5.6 1.54 101.8    
Vince Young TEN 9 6.2 1.92 101.8    
Phillip Rivers SD 13 6.8 2.51 100.0    
Joe Flacco BAL 13 5.7 1.86 99.6    
Kyle Orton DEN 13 5.6 1.81 99.5    
Matt Ryan ATL 13 5.3 1.68 98.9    
Matt Schaub HOU 13 5.8 2.15 97.6    
Aaron Rodgers GB 13 6.1 2.44 96.7    
Troy Smith SF 5 5.6 2.38 94.4    
Colt McCoy CLE 5 5.4 2.36 93.5    
Peyton Manning IND 13 5.6 2.63 92.2    
Jason Campbell OAK 10 5 2.54 89.6    
Kevin Kolb PHI 6 4.9 2.61 88.4    
Tony Romo DAL 6 5.7 3.29 87.0    
Mark Sanchez NYJ 13 4.6 2.72 85.8    
Sam Bradford STL 13 4.3 2.53 85.8    
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 11 4.8 2.91 85.3    
Drew Brees NO 13 5.3 3.43 83.5    
Kerry Collins TEN 7 4.3 2.81 83.4    
Donovan McNabb WAS 13 4.8 3.18 82.9    
Shaun Hill DET 9 4.4 3.13 81.1    
Jay Cutler CHI 12 4.9 3.49 80.7    
Alex Smith SF 8 4.6 3.35 80.3    
Derek Anderson ARI 12 4.1 3.06 80.0    
Jon Kitna DAL 8 5.1 3.83 78.8    
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 12 4.6 3.55 78.6    
Chad Henne MIA 12 4.7 3.63 78.4    
Carson Palmer CIN 13 4.2 3.62 75.6    
Eli Manning NYG 13 4.9 4.34 73.3    
David Garrard JAX 12 4.4 4.14 72.2    
Jimmie Clausen CAR 10 2.8 3.13 72.2    
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 6 4 4.43 67.4    
Brett Favre MIN 12 4.1 5.13 61.8    
Jake Delhomme CLE 5 3.3 4.70 61.1    
Matt Moore CAR 6 2 6.99 33.7    
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8    
   
   
                           

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New Orleans

2. Philadelphia

3. Chicago

4. Seattle

5. Atlanta

6. New York Giants

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Jacksonville

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. New York Jets

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago over New York Giants

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Jacksonville over New York Jets

San Diego over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

New Orleans over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Chicago

 

New England over San Diego

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

New Orleans over New England

December 7, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 14–December 9-13, 2010

PiRate Picks Against The Spread For Last Week

We had to wait a day to post our results of last week’s picks against the spread because we wanted to go with the Patriots on Monday Night Football.  Thanks to that game completing a successful parlay, our picks finished 2-1 for the week.

 

Before we review our picks, let us take this brief moment to send an advanced warning to our subscribers.  We will only make one selection this week, but this is not to infer that we consider it an iron-clad lock of the year.  With the college season over except for the Army-Navy game (which we will lay off), it leaves just NFL games until the start of the bowls.  We have five or six games we like, but we can only make one, 13-point teaser parlay.  Consider this game like all others we give to you—on equal footing. 

 

Okay, let us now review our three selections from last week.

 

1. 13-point Teaser Parlay

Minnesota +7 ½ vs. Buffalo, Cleveland +18 ½ vs. Miami, Tennessee +9 ½ vs. Jacksonville, and Denver +20 ½ vs. Kansas City

Loss

The Tennessee Titans, and their lack of offense, did us in on this parlay.  We liked all four underdogs covering against these big numbers, but the Titans lost by 11 after extending their streak of not scoring an offensive touchdown for almost 3 ½ games.

 

2. 13-point Teaser Parlay

New York Giants +5 ½ vs. Washington, Chicago +8 vs. Detroit, Green Bay +4 ½ vs. San Francisco, New Orleans +6 ½ vs. Cincinnati

WON

This is more of the same.  We went with four favorites by small amounts and moved the spread so that they were now all underdogs.

 

3. 13-point Teaser Parlay

Oakland +26 vs. San Diego, St. Louis +10 vs. Arizona, Baltimore +16 vs. Pittsburgh, and New England +9 ½ vs. New York Jets

WON

We figured San Diego could not win by more than three touchdowns, so we took the Raiders, not expecting them to pull off the upset.  We felt as if Arizona would have a tough time beating Carolina or Detroit by 10, so it was safe taking the Rams at that number.  We believed the Steelers would score less than 17 points, so we loved the Ravens in this pick.  And, we held on until Monday night so we could take the Patriots at home as almost double-digit ‘dogs. 

 

 

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                     
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Philadelphia  8 4 0 344 281 106.9 104.9 105.6
NY Giants 8 4 0 308 247 105.9 103.7 105.2
Dallas  4 8 0 294 336 99.1 99.5 100.0
Washington 5 7 0 222 293 93.7 96.5 95.3
  

NFC North

Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Green Bay 8 4 0 303 182 110.2 108.5 106.4
Chicago 9 3 0 246 192 103.4 104.1 104.2
Minnesota 5 7 0 227 253 98.5 99.4 99.3
Detroit 2 10 0 278 306 94.9 97.0 92.7
                     
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Atlanta 10 2 0 304 233 106.1 105.1 106.7
New Orleans 9 3 0 299 227 105.6 103.3 105.7
Tampa Bay 7 5 0 243 251 99.3 100.1 101.4
Carolina 1 11 0 154 307 91.1 88.6 89.0
                     
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
St. Louis 6 6 0 232 237 97.2 97.2 97.4
San Francisco 4 8 0 203 259 96.9 95.3 95.1
Seattle 6 6 0 240 289 95.5 95.4 96.7
Arizona 3 9 0 200 338 86.0 89.1 89.9
                     
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
New England 10 2 0 379 269 111.3 108.6 110.9
NY Jets 9 3 0 267 232 102.8 102.7 104.4
Miami 6 6 0 215 238 100.0 100.3 99.1
Buffalo 2 10 0 243 333 96.3 96.0 95.1
                     
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Pittsburgh 9 3 0 267 191 106.2 105.6 107.4
Baltimore 8 4 0 260 201 106.2 104.8 106.1
Cleveland 5 7 0 229 239 100.9 99.7 101.6
Cincinnati 2 10 0 255 322 95.2 95.6 92.4
                     
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
Indianapolis 6 6 0 317 290 100.6 101.3 100.1
Houston 5 7 0 288 321 100.3 99.3 99.0
Jacksonville 7 5 0 257 300 99.3 99.4 101.2
Tennessee 5 7 0 263 235 94.0 99.1 96.5
                     
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 6 6 0 323 353 103.7 103.5 101.1
Kansas City 8 4 0 295 237 99.7 101.8 101.2
Oakland 6 6 0 283 269 99.5 99.1 100.0
Denver 3 9 0 256 333 94.1 95.1 93.3
                     

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 14: December 9-13, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 1:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Indianapolis TENNESSEE 3.6 -0.8 -0.6 3    46 1/2
JACKSONVILLE Oakland 2.8 3.3 4.2 4 1/2 43   
PITTSBURGH Cincinnati 15.0 14.0 19.0 9    39 1/2
New England CHICAGO 4.9 1.5 3.7 3    41   
Cleveland BUFFALO 2.6 1.7 4.5 -1 1/2 40   
New York Giants MINNESOTA 4.4 1.3 2.9 2 1/2 44   
Green Bay DETROIT 11.3 7.5 9.7 6 1/2 47 1/2
Atlanta CAROLINA 12.0 13.5 14.7 7 1/2 42   
Tampa Bay WASHINGTON 2.6 0.6 3.1 2    41   
NEW ORLEANS St. Louis 11.4 9.1 11.3 9    47   
SAN FRANCISCO Seattle 5.4 3.9 2.4 4 1/2 41   
NEW YORK JETS Miami 6.8 6.4 9.3 5 1/2 41   
Denver ARIZONA 5.1 3.0 0.4 4    43    
SAN DIEGO  

 

Kansas City

8.0 5.7 3.9 7    46 1/2
Philadelphia DALLAS 4.8 2.4 2.6 3 1/2 50 1/2
Baltimore HOUSTON 2.9 2.5 4.1 3    45 1/2

 

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

NFC East

When the New York Giants bring their A-game, they are the best team in the NFC.  When they don’t, they are not playoff worthy.

 

The Eagles have continued to play at an even keel for most of the season.  We believe Philadelphia will edge the Giants for the Division title, while the Giants have to sweat it out in week 17 to see if they qualify for a Wildcard berth. 

 

Division Winner: Philadelphia

Wildcard: None

 

NFC North

The Chicago Bears have come on strong as the weather turned cold.  They have a tough closing schedule, and we believe they will fall a couple of times.

 

Green Bay has been the most consistent NFC team from week one to week 13.  We believe the Packers will catch and pass the Bears in the final five games.

 

Minnesota has virtually no chance of getting into the playoffs, even if they run the table to finish 9-7.  However, they could be a big spoiler.

 

Division Winner: Green Bay

Wildcard: Chicago

 

NFC South

Atlanta is in the cat-bird seat.  The Falcons host New Orleans, and they own a three-point overtime win over the Saints at the Superdome.  They have two games remaining with Carolina and a visit to Seattle.  They could run the table, but at the worst, they should finish 13-3 and earn home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

 

The New Orleans offense is beginning to pick up the pace.  The Saints have scored at least 30 points in each of their last four games.  Their final three games are tough, having to play at Baltimore, at Atlanta, and hosting Tampa Bay.  We cannot see them running the table.

 

Tampa Bay is still alive, but we believe the Buccaneers will finish no better than 9-7.  11-5 could be the necessary record to qualify as a wildcard this year.

 

Division Winner: Atlanta

Wildcard: New Orleans

 

NFC West

8-8 could very well be all that is needed to win this division.  On the other hand, we could see two teams finishing 8-8.  St. Louis and Seattle remained tied at 6-6.  The Seahawks have a tougher final four games.  They host Atlanta and St. Louis, and they play at San Francisco and Tampa Bay.  They may be eliminated by the time the Rams come to Seattle in the final week.

 

Division Winner: St. Louis

Wildcard: None

 

AFC East

New England probably secured home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with their six-touchdown win over the Jets last night.  The Patriots are ripe for an upset loss this weekend at Chicago, but we believe they have a better than 50% chance of winning.  They host the Packers the following week, and then close at Buffalo and at home against Miami.  They could run the table, but they will win at least 13 games.

 

The Jets have had trouble scoring against the playoff caliber defenses.  They still must play at Pittsburgh and at Chicago, and we believe they could lose both games.  Home games with Buffalo and Miami should allow the Jets to hang on for a playoff spot.

 

Division Winner: New England

Wildcard: New York Jets

 

AFC North

Pittsburgh holds a one game lead over Baltimore.  Both teams’ defenses are getting ready for that final drive to the finish.  Baltimore has given up 36 points in their last three games, while Pittsburgh has yielded just 29.  Both teams could run the table, but we believe Cleveland could upset Pittsburgh in a meaningless finale for the Steelers, while Baltimore could meet the same fate the week before.

 

Division Winner: Pittsburgh

Wildcard: Baltimore

 

AFC South

This division fell to pieces in a hurry.  It is now a little weaker than the AFC West.  Houston and Tennessee are headed to losing records, so it leaves Indianapolis and Jacksonville for the league crown.  Jacksonville leads by a game, but the two teams must square off again at Indy in two weeks.  This week’s contests could decide whether that game will be for all the marbles.  The Colts play at Tennessee Thursday night, while Jacksonville hosts Oakland.  Both should win those games, so a Colt win the following week could produce a tie at 8-6.  The last two games favor the Jaguars, as they host Washington and close at Houston.  Indianapolis must play at Oakland, and host Tennessee.

 

Division Winner: Jacksonville

Wildcard: None

 

AFC West

This just may be the most interesting race of all.  Kansas City leads Oakland and San Diego by two games.  The Chiefs must play at San Diego this week and then follow that up with a trip across the state to St. Louis.  It would not surprise us if they were 8-6 after week 15.  They close with Tennessee and Oakland at home.

 

San Diego’s season is done if they lost to Kansas City this week.  If they get past the Chiefs, they have a great chance to win out with games against San Francisco at home and Cincinnati and Denver on the road.  They have to run the table because they are currently 1-3 in the division and have already been swept by Oakland.

 

Oakland is still in this race at 6-6.  They swept the Chargers and hold a win over Kansas City.  Even if they lose at Jacksonville this week, wins over Denver and Indianapolis at home could make the finale at Kansas City for all the marbles.

 

Denver, with a new coach, could be a big spoiler.  The Broncos get both San Diego and Oakland.  They did split with Kansas City.

 

Division Winner: Kansas City

Wildcard: None

 

Projected Playoff Seedings

N F C

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. Philadelphia

4. St. Louis

5. New Orleans

6. Chicago

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Kansas City

4. Jacksonville

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore

 

Projected Playoffs

Wildcard Round

Chicago over Philadelphia

New Orleans over St. Louis

Baltimore over Kansas City

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Round

Atlanta over Chicago

Green Bay over New Orleans

New England over Baltimore

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Green Bay over Atlanta

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay over New England

 

 

November 30, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 13–December 2-6, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
                       
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Philadelphia 7 4 0 310 257 106.6 105.7 105.8 2
NY Giants 7 4 0 277 240 103.3 102.5 103.3 2
Dallas 3 8 0 256 301 96.8 98.9 99.5 2
Washington
5 6 0 215 262 96.3 97.1 96.1 3
                       
NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA 
Green Bay 7 4 0 269 166 109.9 109.9 106.8 3
Chicago 8 3 0 222 172 103.3 103.4 104.7 4
Minnesota 4 7 0 189 239 97.1 99.0 99.6 3
Detroit 2 9 0 258 282 95.0 96.7 93.9 4
                       
NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Atlanta 9 2 0 276 209 106.3 105.3 106.9 4
New Orleans 8 3 0 265 197 105.8 104.5 106.6 2
Tampa Bay 7 4 0 219 223 99.1 99.0 100.6 2
Carolina 1 10 0 140 276 92.7 90.0 90.3 2
                       
NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
San Francisco 4 7 0 187 225 97.2 95.4 98.3 4
St. Louis 5 6 0 213 231 95.2 94.5 97.1 4
Seattle 5 6 0 209 275 93.9 92.5 95.3 3
Arizona 3 8 0 194 319 88.0 88.3 89.7 4
                       
AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
New England 9 2 0 334 266 107.8 107.0 107.5 3
NY Jets 9 2 0 264 187 106.3 105.5 106.3 2
Miami 6 5 0 205 225 102.3 101.3 102.3 3
Buffalo 2 9 0 229 295 97.7 97.1 97.0 2
                       
AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Baltimore 8 3 0 250 188 107.4 105.9 106.1 4
Pittsburgh 8 3 0 254 181 105.0 105.7 104.9 2
Cleveland 4 7 0 216 229 98.6 99.5 98.2 4
Cincinnati 2 9 0 225 288 95.0 95.5 91.3 3
                       
AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
Indianapolis 6 5 0 282 252 102.9 102.9 102.2 4
Houston 5 6 0 264 287 100.6 100.3 99.4 2
Tennessee 5 6 0 257 218 96.7 102.1 96.5 4
Jacksonville 6 5 0 240 294 96.6 96.5 98.4 3
                       
AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased HFA
San Diego 6 5 0 310 225 106.9 106.2 104.2 4
Kansas City 7 4 0 285 231 100.2 100.2 101.1 4
Oakland 5 6 0 255 256 96.3 96.4 97.7 2
Denver 3 8 0 250 323 93.6 95.2 92.2 2

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 13: December 2-6, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
PHILADELPHIA Houston 8.0 7.4 8.4 8 1/2 51 1/2
MINNESOTA Buffalo 2.4 4.9 5.6 6    44 1/2
MIAMI Cleveland 6.7 4.8 7.1 4 1/2 42 1/2
TENNESSEE Jacksonville 4.1 9.6 2.1 NL NL
KANSAS CITY Denver 10.6 9.0 12.9 8 1/2 45 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS Washington 9.0 7.4 9.2 7    43   
Chicago DETROIT 4.3 2.7 6.8 3 1/2 44 1/2
GREEN BAY San Francisco 15.7 17.5 11.5 9 1/2 42   
New Orleans CINCINNATI 7.8 6.0 12.3 6 1/2 46 1/2
Atlanta TAMPA BAY 5.2 4.3 4.3 3    44 1/2
SAN DIEGO Oakland 14.6 13.8 10.5 12 1/2 45 1/2
SEATTLE Carolina 4.2 5.5 8.0 6    39 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS Dallas 10.1 8.0 6.7 5 1/2 47 1/2
St. Louis  

ARIZONA
3.2 2.2 3.4 3    43   
BALTIMORE Pittsburgh 6.4 4.2 5.2 3    40   
NEW ENGLAND New York Jets 4.5 4.5 4.2 3 1/2 46   

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player Team AYPA Int %  #
Michael Vick Phi 6.8 0.43 118.3
Tom Brady NE 6.5 1.12 110.5
Kyle Orton Den 6.3 1.40 107.0
Matt Cassel KC 6.0 1.24 106.7
Matt Ryan Atl 5.6 1.23 104.5
Ben Roethlisberger Pit 6.4 1.82 103.8
Phillip Rivers SD 7.0 2.39 102.1
Josh Freeman TB 5.6 1.53 101.9
Vince Young Ten 6.2 1.92 101.8
Matt Shaub Hou 5.8 1.91 99.7
Aaron Rodgers GB 6.2 2.44 97.3
Seneca Wallace Cle 5.4 2.00 96.6
Joe Flacco Bal 5.7 2.19 96.6
Peyton Manning Ind 5.6 2.26 95.5
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.2 2.20 93.8
Colt McCoy Cle 5.4 2.36 93.5
Sam Bradford Stl 4.5 2.18 90.0
Matt Hasselebeck Sea 4.9 2.56 88.9
Kevin Kolb Phi 4.9 2.61 88.4
Tony Romo Dal 5.7 3.29 87.0
Drew Brees NO 5.4 3.29 85.3
Chad Henne Mia 5.3 3.27 84.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick Buf 4.8 3.03 84.2
Kerry Collins Ten 4.2 2.80 82.8
Jay Cutler Chi 5.0 3.42 81.9
Donovan McNabb Was 4.8 3.31 81.8
Derek Anderson Ari 4.2 2.93 81.7
Shaun Hill Det 4.4 3.13 81.1
Jason Campbell Oak 4.2 3.16 79.7
Jon Kitna Dal 5.2 4.00 77.9
Carson Palmer Cin 4.3 3.47 77.5
Eli Manning NYG 5.2 4.26 75.7
Jimmy Clausen Car 3.1 3.01 74.9
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
David Garrard Jax 4.3 4.42 69.2
Bruce Gradkowski Oak 4.0 4.43 67.4
Brett Favre Min 4.2 4.86 64.8
Matt Moore Car 2.0 6.99 33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
 

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  This statistic removed the receivers’ Yards After Catch.

AYPA can be found at www.advancednflstats.com

Projected NFL Playoff Seedings

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. Chicago Bears

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. St. Louis Rams

5. Green Bay Packers

6. New Orleans Saints

AFC

1. New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. San Diego Chargers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore Ravens

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Green Bay over St. Louis

Baltimore over San Diego

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Divisional Round

Atlanta over New Orleans

Chicago over Green Bay

Baltimore over New England

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

Conference Championships

Chicago over Atlanta

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL

Chicago over Baltimore

Older Posts »

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.