PiRate Ratings–NFL For Week 1

Week 1 NFL Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
New England	Kansas City	7.4	7.7	6.9
Buffalo	N. Y. Jets	7.7	9.6	7.9
Chicago	Atlanta	-7.7	-6.4	-8.5
Cincinnati	Baltimore	2.6	2.0	2.9
Cleveland	Pittsburgh	-7.9	-8.0	-7.3
Dallas	N. Y. Giants	5.0	3.2	4.9
Detroit	Arizona	1.1	2.3	0.8
Green Bay	Seattle	3.8	5.1	3.6
Houston	Jacksonville	7.7	8.4	7.2
LA Rams	Indianapolis	-1.1	-1.1	-0.9
Miami (Postponed)	Tampa Bay	x	x	x
San Francisco	Carolina	-3.7	-3.4	-3.9
Tennessee	Oakland	-1.3	-2.2	-1.2
Washington	Philadelphia	2.5	3.5	1.9
Denver	LA Chargers	4.5	5.0	4.7
Minnesota	New Orleans	1.9	4.2	1.7

Week 1 NFL Totals

Home	Visitor	Total
New England	Kansas City	41
Buffalo	N. Y. Jets	46
Chicago	Atlanta	56
Cincinnati	Baltimore	36
Cleveland	Pittsburgh	45
Dallas	N. Y. Giants	37
Detroit	Arizona	47
Green Bay	Seattle	47
Houston	Jacksonville	37
LA Rams	Indianapolis	43
Miami (postponed)	Tampa Bay	x
San Francisco	Carolina	52
Tennessee	Oakland	52
Washington	Philadelphia	47
Denver	LA Chargers	46
Minnesota	New Orleans	52

The PiRate Ratings were ready for publication Monday, but our captain, with loads of “oceanic” experience in search of robbing Las Vegans of their gold, gave the orders to hold off a couple days.  Our captain knew that the schedule for week 1 would more than likely change due to Ms. Irma of the Atlantic.

How ironic that this hurricane be named Irma.  Irma is an old name seldom seen these days and maybe after next week, joining Jedidiah, Japath, and other names not used any more.

The NFL schedule makers used to consider weather possibilities when creating the annual slate of games.  Not that Vince Lombardi ever needed the help, but Green Bay frequently began seasons with multiple home games early in the season, while Los Angeles played on the road more early in the season.  Then, when the weather turned raw, the Packers had more road games, while the Rams closed the season with more home games.  By this time, Green Bay had a gaudy won-loss record, while the already eliminated Rams played home games in a rather empty Los Angeles Coliseum, and coaches like Harland Svare suffered the consequences.

The Miami Dolphins and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers now face the task of having to play 16 games in 16 weeks, as Hurricane Irma has forced this Sunday’s opener to be postponed to Week 11.  Because the Dolphins already have one home game in London, it was not feasible that the team would move a second home game away from home.  The right thing for the players would have been to move the game to a location as close as possible without putting it in the path of the hurricane.  A large stadium like Legion Field in Birmingham might have been able to host this game, but this is not an NFL venue, and the NFL usually only relocates games to other NFL stadiums, because there are certain quality standards that must be set.

Moving the game to week 11, when by happenstance both teams have their regularly scheduled bye, is means the Dolphins will not play a real home game until October, and having to play 16 games in 16 weeks will most likely hurt both teams’ chances to make the playoffs this season.  With the concussion protocol rules, the chances of having a full roster of skill position players for 16 consecutive weeks is close to nil.  Players need an extra week off at some point in the meat of the schedule just to nurse the bumps and bruises that make every day life uncomfortable.  This is likely to cost both teams a win or two, as they will not be able to field a healthy roster when they most need a week off.

What you will see in our projected standings reflects what we think will happen.  Both teams were originally selected to become Wildcard Playoff participants before this happened.  Now, both teams are moved out of the playoffs.  The Dolphins are sacrificing the possibility of playoffs for the guarantee of a seventh home game.

2017 Opening NFL PiRate Ratings 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Buffalo	97.4	98.4	97.6	97.8	26
Miami	98.6	99.3	98.0	98.6	24
New England	107.1	107.8	106.9	107.2	20
N. Y. Jets	92.1	91.3	92.1	91.9	20
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Baltimore	100.7	101.1	100.8	100.8	19
Cincinnati	100.2	100.1	100.6	100.3	17
Cleveland	94.3	94.7	94.6	94.5	22
Pittsburgh	104.7	105.1	104.4	104.8	23
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Houston	99.9	100.4	99.4	99.9	15
Indianapolis	99.1	99.3	98.7	99.0	27
Jacksonville	95.2	95.1	95.1	95.1	22
Tennessee	99.4	99.7	98.9	99.3	25
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Denver	101.9	101.4	102.3	101.9	17
Kansas City	102.6	103.1	103.0	102.9	21
LA Chargers	100.4	99.4	100.6	100.1	29
Oakland	103.8	104.9	103.1	103.9	27
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Dallas	104.6	103.0	104.5	104.1	23
N.Y. Giants	102.6	102.8	102.6	102.7	14
Philadelphia	100.3	98.9	101.2	100.1	21
Washington	100.2	99.9	100.6	100.2	26
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Chicago	94.4	95.0	94.1	94.5	20
Detroit	99.3	100.6	99.0	99.7	21
Green Bay	103.5	104.7	102.9	103.7	29
Minnesota	99.3	99.9	99.5	99.6	17
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Atlanta	105.1	104.3	105.7	105.0	36
Carolina	100.2	99.3	100.3	99.9	26
New Orleans	100.5	98.7	100.8	100.0	35
Tampa Bay	100.9	99.9	101.3	100.7	22
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Totals
Arizona	101.2	101.3	101.2	101.2	26
LA Rams	94.9	95.2	94.8	95.0	16
San Francisco	92.9	92.5	92.9	92.8	26
Seattle	102.7	102.6	102.3	102.5	18

To estimate spreads, simply subtract the lower rated teams’ ratings from the higher rated teams’ rating.  Then, add your home field advantage of choice.  The PiRates use game specific advantages for each game.

To estimate the total points scored, simply add the two teams’ Totals numbers.

PiRate Ratings Preseason Playoff Projections 

AFC Seeding

1. New England

2. Oakland

3. Pittsburgh

4. Houston

5. Kansas City

6. Baltimore

 

NFC Seeding

1. Seattle

2. Green Bay

3. NY Giants

4. Atlanta

5. Arizona

6. Dallas

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Pittsburgh over Baltimore

Kansas City over Houston

NY Giants over Dallas

Arizona over Atlanta

 

Divisional Playoff Round

New England over Kansas City

Oakland over Pittsburgh

Arizona over Seattle

Green Bay over NY Giants

 

Conference Championship Games

Oakland over New England

Green Bay over Arizona

 

Super Bowl 52

Oakland over Green Bay

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NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 16: December 22-26, 2016

This Week’s Playoff Scenarios

There are still more than four billion playoff scenarios with just two weeks left in the season, so it is impossible to list every scenario left.  However, for most teams still in the race, their paths are for the most part clear.

AFC East

New England has clinched the division title and a bye to the Divisional Round.  The Patriots would clinch home field advantage and the top seed by winning out (vs. NYJ, @Mia) or by winning one game while Oakland loses one game or if Oakland loses both games.

 

Miami clinches a wildcard berth by winning one of its remaining two games (@Buf, vs. NE).  The Dolphins cannot make the playoffs at 9-7.

 

Buffalo’s slight chance of earning the #6 seed require the Bills to win twice (vs. Mia, @NYJ), a lot of other things to occur.  The computer lists Buffalo with about a 3% chance of making the playoffs.  Here is one scenario that works.

This Week: Jacksonville must beat Tennessee, Oakland must beat Indianapolis, Cincinnati must beat Houston, and Pittsburgh must beat Baltimore

Next Week: Cincinnati must beat Baltimore, New England must beat Miami, and Oakland must beat Denver

AFC North

Pittsburgh wins the division if they beat Baltimore this week at Heinz Field.  They can still win the division if they lose to Baltimore this week, and then Baltimore loses at Cincinnati while the Steelers defeat Cleveland in the final week.  The Steelers have numerous opportunities of earning a wildcard if they lose this week and win next week to finish 10-6 and very limited opportunities of earning a wildcard if they lose both remaining games.

 

Baltimore can win the division title by winning out or by beating Pittsburgh this week and then both the Steelers and Ravens lose their season finales.  The Ravens have limited possibilities of earning a wildcard if they lose to Pittsburgh and beat Cincinnati to finish 9-7.

 

AFC South

This is an interesting scenario.  As far as the division title goes, it does not matter what Houston does this week against Cincinnati.  In theory, they could rest their starters and lose to the Bengals and then would become division champs if they beat Tennessee in Week 17.  The Texans still have a very slim (less than 1 in 300 chance) of earning a wildcard if they win this week and lose next week, but it is so infinitesimally small, that Houston would be best served by concentrating all their efforts on the Titans.  Then, there is the opportunity to clinch the division this week should Jacksonville upset Tennessee.  The Texans will know the outcome of the Titans’ game before they play Cincinnati.

Tennessee must win out to win the division, or they must beat Houston next week if the Texans and Titans both lose this week.  However, under this scenario, the Titans can only win the division at 9-7 if Indianapolis loses one of its final two games.  The Titans have a slim wildcard chance, but it is a little better than the Texans’ wildcard chance.

 

Indianapolis can still win the division by winning out with Houston losing both of its final two games and Tennessee losing to Jacksonville.   The Colts still have a tiny wildcard shot if they win out.  That chance is smaller than Buffalo’s.

 

AFC West

Oakland must finish a game ahead of Kansas City to win the division.  Two Raider wins, and one Patriot loss would give the Raiders home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.  One Oakland win guarantees a first round bye, but the Raiders can still clinch a bye with two losses if Pittsburgh loses a game.

Kansas City wins the division in any tie with Oakland.  The Chiefs would receive a first round bye if they finish with two wins, and Pittsburgh loses one game.  KC wins the wildcard unless they lose their final two games (vs. Den, @SD) and Baltimore wins out, while Pittsburgh and Miami both finish 10-6.

Denver has numerous possibilities in their route to the #6 seed.  The Broncos must win out (@KC, vs. Oak), and then need help from losses by Miami and Baltimore, or a monumental Cleveland upset of Pittsburgh.

NFC East

Dallas needs one win or one New York Giant loss to clinch the top seed and earn home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs.  If the Cowboys lose twice (@Phi, @Was), and Dallas loses twice (vs. Det, @Phi), and the Giants win twice, the Giants earn home field advantage and the top seed.

New York can still be eliminated with two losses and multiple other scenarios including Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Atlanta, and Detroit finishing 10-6.

Washington is still alive and has a very good shot at a wildcard if they win out (@Chi, vs. NYG), and a very slim chance if they lose one of their last two.

 

NFC North

If Detroit beats Green Bay next week, the Lions win the division regardless of what happens in this weeks game at Dallas.  If Green Bay beats Detroit, then the Packers win the division if the two teams finished tied.  Both teams hold limited wildcard possibilities, with the Lions’ chances more than twice as strong.

 

Minnesota holds very slim wildcard hopes.  The Vikings must beat Green Bay and Chicago and then hope Tampa Bay loses out, Washington loses at least once, and Detroit beats Green Bay.

 

NFC South 

Atlanta and Tampa Bay are both looking good with the majority of scenarios placing both teams in the playoffs.  If Atlanta wins just one of its final two games, there are very few scenarios where the Falcons would be eliminated, and if Tampa Bay wins out, there are even fewer scenarios where they would be eliminated.  The Falcons can earn a bye by winning out to finish 11-5, if Seattle loses one of its final two games.

 

NFC West

Seattle has clinched the division and can clinch a first round bye if they win out.  They cannot clinch the number one seed, as only Dallas and the Giants are alive for the top spot.

 

If The Playoffs Began Today

AFC
1	New England
2	Oakland
3	Pittsburgh
4	Houston
5	Kansas City
6	Miami
NFC
1	Dallas
2	Seattle
3	Atlanta
4	Detroit
5	N.Y. Giants
6	Tampa Bay

PiRate Playoff Projections

AFC Seeding
1	Oakland
2	New England
3	Pittsburgh
4	Tennessee
5	Kansas City
6	Miami
NFC Seeding
1	Dallas
2	Seattle
3	Atlanta
4	Detroit
5	New York
6	Tampa Bay

PiRate Playoff Projections Played Out

Wildcard Round

Pittsburgh over Miami

Kansas City over Tennessee

Tampa Bay over Atlanta

N.Y. Giants over Detroit

Divisional Round

Oakland over Kansas City

New England over Pittsburgh

Dallas over Tampa Bay

N. Y. Giants over Seattle

Conference Championship

Oakland over New England

N. Y. Giants over Dallas

Super Bowl 51

N. Y. Giants over Oakland

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
New England	109.7	108.4	110.6	109.6	67	43
Buffalo	101.9	102.1	102.2	102.1	63	39
Miami	99.0	98.8	99.4	99.0	60	39
N. Y. Jets	93.9	93.2	94.1	93.7	57	37
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Pittsburgh	105.3	104.9	105.9	105.4	63	42
Cincinnati	101.4	101.1	101.5	101.4	59	42
Baltimore	100.9	101.8	100.7	101.1	61	40
Cleveland	87.5	88.4	87.3	87.7	55	33
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Indianapolis	100.2	101.5	99.9	100.5	64	37
Tennessee	98.8	99.4	98.8	99.0	61	38
Houston	97.3	98.0	96.7	97.3	60	37
Jacksonville	93.1	94.4	92.6	93.4	58	35
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Kansas City	103.8	103.8	104.2	103.9	64	40
Denver	104.3	103.6	103.7	103.8	62	42
Oakland	102.1	102.6	102.8	102.5	67	36
San Diego	98.9	99.8	98.6	99.1	63	36
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Dallas	104.5	103.9	104.9	104.4	62	42
Washington	100.8	100.5	100.7	100.7	62	39
N.Y. Giants	100.2	99.6	100.6	100.1	62	38
Philadelphia	99.7	98.7	99.2	99.2	60	39
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Green Bay	102.2	102.0	102.0	102.1	66	36
Detroit	100.5	100.3	100.3	100.4	61	39
Minnesota	100.3	100.0	100.0	100.1	57	43
Chicago	94.1	93.1	94.0	93.8	56	38
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Atlanta	107.5	108.2	107.5	107.7	71	37
Carolina	102.6	102.4	102.9	102.6	60	43
Tampa Bay	101.5	101.6	101.6	101.6	63	39
New Orleans	100.9	101.4	101.3	101.2	68	33
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Seattle	106.1	104.0	106.7	105.6	63	43
Arizona	101.5	100.9	101.2	101.2	62	39
Los Angeles	93.7	94.4	93.2	93.8	54	40
San Francisco	88.3	89.3	87.7	88.4	54	34

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Totals
Philadelphia	New York Giants	1.5	1.1	0.6	47
Buffalo	Miami	5.9	6.3	5.8	47
Carolina	Atlanta	-2.4	-3.3	-2.1	51
Chicago	Washington	-4.2	-4.9	-4.2	43
Cleveland	San Diego	-8.4	-8.4	-8.3	51
Green Bay	Minnesota	4.4	4.5	4.5	45
Jacksonville	Tennessee	-2.7	-2.0	-3.2	47
New England	New York Jets	18.8	18.2	19.5	45
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	2.4	2.8	2.7	60
Oakland	Indianapolis	4.9	4.1	5.9	60
Los Angeles	San Francisco	7.9	7.6	8.0	33
Seattle	Arizona	7.6	6.1	8.5	45
Houston	Cincinnati	-1.1	-0.1	-1.8	40
Pittsburgh	Baltimore	6.9	5.6	7.7	43
Kansas City	Denver	2.5	3.2	3.5	45
Dallas	Detroit	7.0	6.6	7.6	43

 

 

 

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–December 9-12, 2016

This week, there is only one college game with Army and Navy facing off in Baltimore.  Thus, we must make our selections only from the NFL schedule.  We are throwing caution to the wind, as even though we have a small 6% profit for the season entering this week, we are not going to a stall to guarantee a winning season.  We want to make that Return on Investment top 10%, and thus we are going with three parlays this week.  Each parlay goes off at odds higher than +200, so winning just one of the three would add profit to our imaginary bankroll for the season.

1. NFL Parlay at +220

Indianapolis over Houston

Detroit over Chicago

Tampa Bay over New Orleans

Let us make sure you understand that we are aware of the Colts’ having to make major defensive changes after losing star D’Qwell Jackson for four games due to a suspension for Performance Enhancing substances.  Jackson was the key to the Indy defense, but his loss has made this parlay a better play for us.

The way we see the Colts-Texans game is that Indy will outscore Houston and not have to worry about Jackson missing on the stop side.  Houston has scored just 99 points in their last six games, while Indianapolis with Andrew Luck is a team capable of scoring 35 points in this game.

 

Detroit is ready to wrap up the NFC North Division, and this is a game the Lions should win handily.  The Bears are limping home and might decide to pull a NY Jets this weekend, or at least we hope they might.

 

Tampa Bay is now a slight favorite to win the NFC South with second year quarterback Jameis Winston maturing into a potential star.  The Bucs’ defense is not to be confused with Carolina’s, but TB should be able to match Drew Brees point for point and come up with one or two big plays to win.

 

2. NFL Parlay at +248

Carolina over San Diego

Miami over Arizona

The Panthers and Chargers are now out of the playoff race, and the only reason we believe Carolina will win this game is that San Diego has been forced to do a lot of travelling this season and must go 2,500 miles and three time zones this week.  The game should be a fascinating close match.

 

Miami has a slim chance to earn a wildcard bid, but the Dolphins must win out and then get some help.  Arizona is going nowhere, and they too must travel across the country.

 

3. NFL Parlay at +211

N. Y. Jets over San Francisco

New England over Baltimore

The key to this parlay is whether the Jets will show that Monday night was a fluke.  Will the team show up for Todd Bowles and give him a chance to keep his job?  Just a normal effort would be enough to lead NY to victory over a 49ers team that may be weaker than Cleveland at the present time.

 

We are throwing the Patriots into this parlay to bring the odds up over +200.  Baltimore will not lay down in this game and allow New England to win going away, and the Pats will have to bring their A-game without Gronk.  However, we believe (hope) the Pats realize they are now in a dogfight for the #1 seed and understand that this is a must-win game.

 

 

 

 

NFL Preview For Week 12: November 26-30, 2015

In The Backstretch

The horses are in the backstretch positioning themselves as they approach the final turn to the homestretch, and we see some horses beginning to fade while some of the closers are beginning to make their move.

The Atlanta Falcons were once among the leaders in the opening furlong, but they are now in danger of falling out of the money. The Seattle Seahawks are running a bad race so far, but they do have a closing kick that could get them on the board. The Cincinnati Bengals were once in the lead by a couple lengths, but they have faltered some and now can just barely see the tail of the American Pharoah known as New England.

The horses making their moves as the final turn approaches include a couple that may be ready to finish strong and hit the board, while there are others that waited too late and have too many lenghts to make up. The Kansas City Chiefs have hit their stride and may be on pace to pass the Denver Broncos down the stretch. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have waited too late, but they have a chance to sneak into the money at the end. The Dallas Cowboys started strong out of the gate and then almost threw their jockey who had to hang on to get back in the stirrups just in the last 70 yards. Now, even though they are several lengths behind the field, there is a possibility they could lap the three horses they must defeat to get into the next race.

In football terms, there are six weeks left in the season. In the NFC, Carolina is a lock to make the playoffs, while Arizona is almost a lock. Green Bay and Minnesota appear to be in control of making the playoffs, but it is still undecided which team will be the NFC North Champion and which team will be a wild card.

The NFC East and the other wild card are still up in the air. In the NFC East, the New York Giants hold a one-game lead over the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins, and a two-game lead over Dallas. Any of the four teams could win the weak division.

As for the final wild card berth, Atlanta now leads Seattle and Tampa Bay by just one game. The Falcons are fading fast after a fast start.

In the AFC, New England is the one definite team in the playoffs. The Bills and Jets are now both five games back with six to go, and they are both in danger of falling out of the wild card race.

Cincinnati has now dropped two straight games, and the Bengals need to get back on the winning track before they can be considered a safe bet to win their division. Pittsburgh has the talent to finish 4-2, which would give the Steelers a 10-6 record.

Denver is going to limp home in the final six weeks, and at 8-2, there is no guarantee they would not collapse without Peyton Manning at QB or with an injured Manning that is not a good fit for the Gary Kubiak offense. Kansas City has hit their stride, and the Chiefs detroyed Denver a couple weeks ago. K-C could finish 10-6, and Denver could fall to 9-7, but it is still a long shot proposition.

The South is now a three-team race to 9-7 or even 8-8. Indianapolis has begun to show signs of life again, but Houston is playing its best ball of the year now as well. Jacksonville is just a game back and is just an upset or two away from being able to finish 9-7.

Here is how the playoffs would look if the season ends today.

AFC
1	New England
2	Cincinnati
3	Denver
4	Indianapolis
5	Pittsburgh
6	Kansas City
NFC
1	Carolina
2	Arizona
3	Green Bay
4	N. Y. Giants
5	Minnesota
6	Atlanta

Here is the consensus of the PiRates as to how the teams will finish.

AFC SEED	TEAM
1	New England
2	Cincinnati
3	Kansas City
4	Indianapolis
5	Denver
6	Pittsburgh
NFC SEED	TEAM
1	Carolina
2	Arizona
3	Green Bay
4	Philadelphia
5	Minnesota
6	Atlanta
Wildcard Playoff Round
Kansas City over Pittsburgh
Indianapolis over Denver
Green Bay over Atlanta
Minnesota over Philadelphia
Divisional Playoff Round
New England over Indianapolis
Kansas City over Cincinnati
Carolina over Minnesota
Arizona over Green Bay
Conference Championship Round
New England over Kansas City
Arizona over Carolina
Super Bowl 50
Arizona over New England

 

This Week’s Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Dallas	102.4	101.0	101.7	101.7	3-7-0	190	228
N.Y. Giants	101.3	101.5	102.2	101.7	5-5-0	273	253
Philadelphia	100.4	99.8	100.4	100.2	4-6-0	229	229
Washington	95.4	95.0	94.8	95.1	4-6-0	221	253
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Green Bay	105.9	105.1	105.4	105.5	7-3-0	249	198
Minnesota	102.4	101.3	103.1	102.3	7-3-0	211	184
Chicago	98.5	98.9	99.6	99.0	4-6-0	214	251
Detroit	97.3	96.1	96.2	96.5	3-7-0	185	274
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Carolina	107.0	107.5	108.5	107.7	10-0-0	299	191
Atlanta	98.0	97.8	97.8	97.9	6-4-0	250	214
Tampa Bay	96.0	96.7	96.1	96.3	5-5-0	236	254
New Orleans	94.3	92.0	94.1	93.5	4-6-0	255	315
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Arizona	108.3	108.1	109.4	108.6	8-2-0	336	216
Seattle	105.8	104.9	105.2	105.3	5-5-0	228	192
St. Louis	96.1	96.8	96.3	96.4	4-6-0	179	199
San Francisco	95.0	93.5	94.6	94.4	3-7-0	139	252
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
New England	111.5	111.7	111.4	111.5	10-0-0	323	182
Buffalo	101.4	102.3	101.7	101.8	5-5-0	244	227
N. Y. Jets	99.3	99.6	98.7	99.2	5-5-0	234	208
Miami	98.2	98.8	97.7	98.2	4-6-0	205	249
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Cincinnati	105.0	105.9	105.8	105.6	8-2-0	266	186
Pittsburgh	103.8	104.0	103.7	103.8	6-4-0	236	191
Baltimore	100.4	99.4	99.7	99.8	3-7-0	226	249
Cleveland	93.1	92.2	92.5	92.6	2-8-0	186	277
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Indianapolis	101.0	101.4	101.3	101.2	5-5-0	224	248
Houston	97.8	99.4	98.2	98.5	5-5-0	208	228
Jacksonville	92.4	95.3	92.5	93.4	4-6-0	211	268
Tennessee	91.9	91.8	91.8	91.8	2-8-0	182	233
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average	W-L-T	Pts	Opp
Kansas City	105.0	105.9	105.6	105.5	5-5-0	257	198
Denver	104.1	103.3	103.6	103.7	8-2-0	222	183
San Diego	95.5	95.2	95.0	95.2	2-8-0	213	282
Oakland	95.5	97.8	95.4	96.2	4-6-0	240	259

 

This Week’s Games
Week Number:	12
Date of Games:	November 26-30
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Detroit	Philadelphia	-0.6	-1.2	-1.7
Dallas	Carolina	-1.6	-3.5	-3.8
Green Bay	Chicago	9.9	8.7	8.3
Tennessee	Oakland	-0.6	-3.0	-0.6
Kansas City	Buffalo	6.6	6.6	6.9
Indianapolis	Tampa Bay	8.0	7.7	8.2
Washington	NY Giants	-3.4	-4.0	-4.9
Houston	New Orleans	6.0	9.9	6.6
Atlanta	Minnesota	-1.9	-1.0	-2.8
Cincinnati	St. Louis	11.9	12.1	12.5
Jacksonville	San Diego	0.4	3.6	1.0
NY Jets	Miami	4.1	3.8	4.0
San Francisco	Arizona	-10.8	-12.1	-12.3
Seattle	Pittsburgh	5.0	3.9	4.5
Denver	New England	-4.4	-5.4	-4.8
Cleveland	Baltimore	-4.8	-4.7	-4.7

 

2013 NFC South Division Preview

2013 N F C South Preview

The South Division of the NFC was a one-team race last year with the Atlanta Falcons quickly separating from the pack and cruising to a six-game defeat of the other three teams.  It was expected after the New Orleans Saints entered the season with coaching suspensions.  By the time the Saints started to turn things around, it was too late.

 

2013 should be an interesting season.  The Falcons once again look like the class of the division, but of course with scheduling, they will play two other first place teams from last year, while New Orleans and Carolina face easier competition in those two games.  Tampa Bay also faces an easier schedule, but we do not believe the Buccaneers can rock the boat in the South this year.

 

Next to Green Bay, Atlanta has the best passing attack in the NFC.  Matt Ryan is quickly becoming one of the elite passers in the league, while Julio Jones, Roddy White, and the ageless wonder, tight end Tony Gonzalez, form a top-notch receiving corps.  If Steven Jackson has one more good year in his legs, the Falcons just may be ready to advance that final step to the Super Bowl.

 

New Orleans had the best offense in the NFC last year, by 25 points over the second best team.  On the other hand, the Saints gave up the most points in the NFC by 10 points.  Thus, the Saints finished 7-9.  Can new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan work magic on a defense that played like 11 matadors last year?  On top of the improvement needed, the Saints will switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 alignment.  And, they will not get much immediate help from their draft class.

 

Carolina has enough talent now to contend for a playoff berth.  Cam Newton may not complete 60% of his passes, but he will average more per completion than average.  He will also be hard on enemy pass rushers with his ability to make them miss.  A nice defensive rush that might result in a sack on most QBs, could very well result in a 10 to 20 yard gain on a scramble.

 

The Panthers will have to get by without Jonathan Stewart for six games after he was placed on the PUP list.  DeAngelo Williams is starting to show his age, so the Panthers may struggle unless rookie Kenjon Barner can take up the slack.  The receiving corps is average at best, and the offensive line is better blocking for the run than the pass.

 

The Panthers should be improved this year because their defense looks much better, especially in the line and at linebacker.  Look for rookie tackle Star Lotulelei to be a key right away.  He won’t make 10 tackles a game, but he will command double blocks on several plays, and that will allow the linebackers to look much better.

 

Tampa Bay overachieved last year, and they still finished below .500.  The Buccaneers are average or below average at every unit on offense and defense.  Quarterback Josh Freeman won’t appear on the all-pro list, and he won’t get a lot of hype, but he can pass for 300 yards on many Sundays.  However, he tends to force passes and threw too many interceptions last year.  He will continue to stretch defenses with longer passes, because that will open up running lanes for second year star back Doug Martin, one of the biggest surprises in the league last year.  Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams make up a talented one-two punch at wideout, but the Bucs need more skill players to emerge.  The defense does not have enough talent to compete for a playoff spot this year.

 

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

 

Here are the official colors for the NFC South.

West	Color	Red	Green	Blue
Atlanta Falcons	Black	17	28	36
	Red	198	12	48
	White	255	255	255
Carolina Panthers	Panther Blue	0	136	206
	Black	17	28	36
	Metallic Silver	133	136	139
New Orleans Saints	Old Gold	150	130	82
	Black	17	28	36
	White	255	255	255
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Red	167	25	48
	Pewter	102	92	79
	Black	17	28	36

 

 

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp Atlanta Falcons 104.7 105.6 106.3 13-3-0 419 299 New Orleans Saints 100.7 100.2 99.9 7-9-0 461 454 Carolina Panthers 99.7 100.0 101.4 7-9-0 357 363 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 98.6 97.6 96.8 7-9-0 389 394

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Atlanta Falcons	103.6	106.6	103.1
New Orleans Saints	101.7	102.0	101.6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	98.5	98.1	98.7
Carolina Panthers	98.4	97.7	98.1

 

PiRate Previews

Team	Atlanta Falcons
Head Coach	Mike Smith
O-Coord.	Dirk Koetter
D-Coord.	Mike Nolan
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Matt Ryan
Running Back	Steven Jackson
Fullback	Bradie Ewing
Wide Receiver	Julio Jones
Wide Receiver	Roddy White
Tight End	Tony Gonzalez
Left Tackle	Sam Baker
Left Guard	Justin Blalock
Center	Peter Konz
Right Guard	Garrett Reynolds
Right Tackle	Lamar Holmes
	Defense
Left End	Kroy Biermann
Left Tackle	Jonathan Babineaux
Right Tackle	Corey Peters
Right End	Osi Umenyiora
Sam LB	Stephen Nicholas
Mike LB	Akeem Dent
Will LB	Sean Weatherspoon
Left CB	Asante Samuel
Right CB	Desmond Trufant
Strong Safety	William Moore
Free Safety	Thomas Decoud
	Special Teams
Kicker	Matt Bryant
Punter	Matt Bosher
K-Return	Jacquizz Rodgers
P-Return	Dominique Franks
Predictions
Record	12-4
Division	1st

 

Team	Carolina Panthers
Head Coach	Ron Rivera
O-Coord.	Mike Shula
D-Coord.	Sean McDermott
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Cam Newton
Running Back	DeAngelo Williams
Fullback	Mike Tolbert
Wide Receiver	Steve Smith
Wide Receiver	Brandon LaFell
Tight End	Greg Olsen
Left Tackle	Jordan Gross
Left Guard	Amini Silatolu
Center	Ryan Kalil
Right Guard	Garry Williams
Right Tackle	Byron Bell
	Defense
Left End	Charles Johnson
Left Tackle	Dwan Edwards
Nose Tackle	Star Lotulelei
Right End	Greg Hardy
Sam LB	Thomas Davis
Mike LB	Luke Kuechly
Will LB	Jon Beason
Left CB	Drayton Florence
Right CB	Captain Munnerlyn
Strong Safety	Mike Mitchell
Free Safety	Charles Godfrey
	Special Teams
Kicker	Graham Gano
Punter	Brad Nortman
K-Return	Ted Ginn
P-Return	Ted Ginn
Predictions
Record	8-8
Division	3rd

Team	New Orleans Saints
Head Coach	Sean Payton
O-Coord.	Pete Carmichael
D-Coord.	Rob Ryan
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Drew Brees
Running Back	Pierre Thomas
Fullback	Jed Collins
Wide Receiver	Lance Moore
Wide Receiver	Marques Colston
Tight End	Jimmy Graham
Left Tackle	Charles Brown
Left Guard	Ben Grubbs
Center	Brian De La Puente
Right Guard	Jahri Evans
Right Tackle	Zach Strief
	Defense
Left End	Akiem Hicks
Nose Tackle	Brodrick Bunkley
Right End	Cameron Jordan
Left OLB	Junior Galette
Left ILB	Jonathan Vilma
Right ILB	Curtis Lofton
Right OLB	Martez Wilson
Left CB	Jabari Greer
Right CB	Keenan Lewis
Strong Safety	Roman Harper
Free Safety	Malcolm Jenkins
	Special Teams
Kicker	Garrett Hartley
Punter	Thomas Morstead
K-Return	Darren Sproles
P-Return	Darren Sproles
Predictions
Record	9-7
Division	2nd

Team	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Head Coach	Greg Schiano
O-Coord.	Mike Sullivan
D-Coord.	Bill Sheridan
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Josh Freeman
Running Back	Doug Martin
Fullback	Erik Lorig
Wide Receiver	Vincent Jackson
Wide Receiver	Mike Williams
Tight End	Luke Stocker
Left Tackle	Donald Penn
Left Guard	Carl Nicks
Center	Jeremy Zuttah
Right Guard	Davin Joseph
Right Tackle	Dernar Dotson
	Defense
Left End	Da’Quan Bowers
Left Tackle	Gerald McCoy
Right Tackle	Gary Gibson
Right End	Adrian Clayborn
Sam LB	Dekoda Watson
Mike LB	Mason Foster
Will LB	Lavonte David
Left CB	Darrelle Revis
Right CB	Leonard Johnson
Strong Safety	Mark Barron
Free Safety	Dashon Goldson
	Special Teams
Kicker	Lawrence Tynes
Punter	Michael Koenen
K-Return	Mike James
P-Return	Eric Page
Predictions
Record	6-10
Division	4th

 

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 17–January 2, 2011

Did You Enjoy Your Christmas Gift?

Last week as our Christmas gift to you, we gave all our readers a free 13-point teaser parlay for you to play.  It was a winner!  Let’s take a look at it once again.

 

Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina

Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington

Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland

Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis

Thanks to an excellent QB draw by David Garrard, the Jaguars force overtime with Washington and lost on a field goal, which was okay for this parlay.  Oakland scored a late TD to prevent the Colts from threatening to ruin the parlay at the end of the day.  Pittsburgh and Baltimore were never in doubt.  Did you use this and win?

 

NFL Playoff Possibilities

NFC

East

Philadelphia

Clinched the division and will be the number three seed no matter what happens this week

 

New York Giants

Can get in as a Wildcard two ways

1. A win over Washington and Green Bay loses or ties

2. A tie with Washington and a both a Green Bay loss and Tampa Bay loss or tie

 

North

Chicago

Clinched the division and has earned a first round bye regardless of what happens this week

They can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win plus an Atlanta loss and a New Orleans loss or tie

 

Green Bay 

Can earn a Wildcard spot three different ways

1. A win over the Bears automatically gives them a Wildcard

2. If they lose to the Bears, they still qualify if both the Giants and Tampa Bay also lose

3. If they tie the Bears, they qualify as a Wildcard if both the Giants and Tampa Bay lose or tie

 

South

Atlanta

Has not clinched the division, but a win or tie over Carolina clinches it 

They also would clinch with a New Orleans loss or tie 

If they win the division, they will also clinch a first-round bye. 

Can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs if they win or tie or if Chicago and New Orleans both lose or tie

 

New Orleans

Has clinched a playoff spot 

If the Saints win and Atlanta loses, they would become division champions and earn home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs

 

Tampa Bay

Can still earn a Wildcard spot with a win over the Saints plus a Green Bay loss or tie and a Giants loss or tie

 

West

The winner of the St. Louis—Seattle game will clinch the division and earn the number four seed 

If they tie, the Rams win the division

 

AFC

East

New England

Has already clinched home-field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs

 

New York Jets

Have clinched a Wildcard spot.

 

North

Pittsburgh and Baltimore have already clinched playoff spots

 

Pittsburgh

Can clinch the division and earn the other first-round bye three different ways

1. A win over Cleveland

2. A tie with Cleveland coupled with a loss or tie by Baltimore

3. A loss to Cleveland, coupled with a loss by Baltimore

 

Pittsburgh can be a #2 seed with a win, but they could fall all the way to #6 if they lose and both Baltimore and the Jets win.

 

Baltimore 

Can clinch the division and earn a first-round bye two ways

1. A win over Cincinnati coupled by a Pittsburgh loss or tie

2. A tie with Cincinnati and a Pittsburgh loss.

 

South

This division has not yet been decided 

The division winner will play in the opening week in the Wildcard Playoff round

 

Indianapolis

Clinches the division with a win or tie or a Jacksonville loss or tie 

 

The Colts would be the number three seed if they win and Kansas City loses and the number four seed if they win the division and Kansas City wins or ties

 

Jacksonville

Can clinch the division with a win over Houston and  Indianapolis loss to Tennessee 

The Jaguars would be the number four seed.

 

West

Kansas City

Has already clinched the division title and will play in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs 

If they win or tie or if Indianapolis loses or ties, the Chiefs would be the third seed 

If they lose and Indianapolis wins, the Chiefs will be the fourth seed

 

 Here is our projected Playoff bracket

NFC

#6 Green Bay at #3 Philadelphia

#5 New Orleans at #4 St. Louis

 

#2 Chicago hosts the better remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round

 

#1 Atlanta hosts the worse remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round

 

AFC

#6 Pittsburgh at #3 Kansas City

#5 New York Jets at #4 Indianapolis

 

#2 Baltimore hosts the better remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round

 

#1 New England hosts the worse remaining seed that wins in the Wildcard round

 

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
Listed By PiRate Rating
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Philadelphia	10	–	5	–	0	426	363	105.9	104.0	104.7
NY Giants	9	–	6	–	0	377	333	103.6	102.5	102.2
Dallas	5	–	10	–	0	380	423	97.9	98.4	96.6
Washington	6	–	9	–	0	288	360	94.3	97.0	97.4
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	9	–	6	–	0	378	237	111.2	109.2	106.8
Chicago	11	–	4	–	0	331	276	103.9	104.4	105.0
Detroit	5	–	10	–	0	342	356	98.4	100.5	100.1
Minnesota	6	–	9	–	0	268	328	97.4	98.1	99.4
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans	11	–	4	–	0	371	284	107.0	105.3	107.0
Atlanta	12	–	3	–	0	383	278	106.6	105.7	105.8
Tampa Bay	9	–	6	–	0	318	305	100.0	100.2	101.0
Carolina	2	–	13	–	0	186	377	90.2	88.4	88.3
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco	5	–	10	–	0	267	339	96.2	94.5	96.7
St. Louis	7	–	8	–	0	283	312	95.6	94.9	99.0
Seattle	6	–	9	–	0	294	401	92.0	91.6	94.1
Arizona	5	–	10	–	0	282	396	89.0	91.4	91.0
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	13	–	2	–	0	480	306	115.3	113.2	112.0
NY Jets	10	–	5	–	0	329	297	102.7	102.9	103.9
Miami	7	–	8	–	0	266	295	99.1	99.2	98.2
Buffalo	4	–	11	–	0	276	387	95.8	96.3	95.8
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Baltimore	11	–	4	–	0	344	263	107.0	106.2	106.0
Pittsburgh	11	–	4	–	0	334	223	105.5	105.7	106.2
Cleveland	5	–	10	–	0	262	291	99.3	98.2	94.4
Cincinnati	4	–	11	–	0	315	382	97.9	97.9	95.3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	9	–	6	–	0	412	368	102.2	102.5	103.1
Jacksonville	8	–	7	–	0	336	385	98.7	97.7	98.4
Houston	5	–	10	–	0	356	410	98.0	97.7	96.5
Tennessee	6	–	9	–	0	336	316	93.9	98.3	95.8
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	8	–	7	–	0	408	294	104.3	105.0	102.2
Kansas City	10	–	5	–	0	356	295	100.9	101.8	102.7
Oakland	7	–	8	–	0	379	361	98.9	99.0	100.5
Denver	4	–	11	–	0	316	438	91.7	92.3	94.1

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS
Ratings Do Not Reflect Resting of Regulars by Teams That Have Nothing to Play for
Week 17: January 2, 2011
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EST Wednesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
KANSAS CITY	Oakland	6.0	6.8	6.2	3 1/2	43 ½
NEW ENGLAND	Miami	19.2	17.0	16.8	3	43
INDIANAPOLIS	Tennessee	11.3	7.2	10.3	9 1/2	48
Jacksonville	HOUSTON	2.7	2.0	3.9	2 1/2	49 ½
Pittsburgh	CLEVELAND	2.2	3.5	7.8	6	37
BALTIMORE	Cincinnati	12.1	11.3	13.7	9 1/2	43
DETROIT	Minnesota	5.0	6.4	4.7	NL	NL
WASHINGTON	New York Giants	6.3	2.5	1.8	4	44 ½
GREEN BAY	Chicago	10.3	7.8	4.8	NL	NL
PHILADELPHIA	Dallas	10.0	7.6	10.1	NL	NL
NEW YORK JETS	Buffalo	9.9	9.6	11.1	3	35 ½
ATLANTA	Carolina	19.4	20.3	20.5	14 1/2	41
NEW ORLEANS	Tampa Bay	9.0	7.1	8.0	7 1/2	47
SEATTLE	St. Louis	0.4	0.7	-0.9	3	41 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO	Arizona	11.2	7.1	9.7	6	38 ½
San Diego	DENVER	8.6	8.7	4.1	3 1/2	47

 

Note to our subscription clients:  We will not issue an “official” pick for this week’s games because we do not like any of the possible parlays; too many teams have nothing to play for, but at the same time, this does not mean they will not use their regulars for four quarters.

 

 We will only issue three unofficial picks.  We advise you to take everything off the table unless you want to speculate with profits.

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010

Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers.  We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship. So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today. 2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread. We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact. For instance, we made just one selection last week.  It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won.  We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick.  We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog.  All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection. We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from.  We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition. We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon.  Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift.  We hope it is a winning one.  Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy. Here it is: We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser.  For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games.  If all four games win, you win the parlay.  If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose. There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser.  Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two.  Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog.  If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points.  That is not in your favor.  Winning teams often win games by 14 points.   Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog.  Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog.  Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18. Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog.  A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog. Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals.  If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10. The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection.  Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite.  Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference.  One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection.  However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog.  The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay. If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game.  For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15. Here is our Christmas gift to you. 1. 13-point teaser parlay Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis   Here is our reasoning for these four games.  Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday.  Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  This is a perfect setup for the Steelers.  Carolina has nothing to play for in this game.  This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one. Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing.  Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival.  They will not have much left in the tank this week.  Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out.  The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title.  You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright. Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title.  The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17.  The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week.  We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay.  We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times. We love the Raiders in this West Coast game.  Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes.  Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game.  Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City.  They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.  They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once.  We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points. Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings                       NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Philadelphia 10 – 4 – 0 412 339 108.2 105.9 106.6 NY Giants 9 – 5 – 0 360 288 105.9 104.3 103.5 Dallas 5 – 9 – 0 354 396 98.7 99.2 99.8 Washington 5 – 9 – 0 268 343 93.9 96.9 95.4 Bitmap                     NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Green Bay 8 – 6 – 0 333 220 108.9 107.2 105.2 Chicago 10 – 4 – 0 293 242 103.8 104.4 104.9 Detroit 4 – 10 – 0 308 329 97.3 99.7 97.8 Minnesota 5 – 9 – 0 244 314 95.1 95.9 94.2                       NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Atlanta 12 – 2 – 0 369 261 107.7 106.1 107.2 New Orleans 10 – 4 – 0 354 270 105.9 103.8 105.2 Tampa Bay 8 – 6 – 0 280 290 98.6 98.9 100.3 Carolina 2 – 12 – 0 183 350 90.5 88.7 90.1                       NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Francisco 5 – 9 – 0 250 314 96.6 95.3 98.0 St. Louis 6 – 8 – 0 258 295 95.2 94.9 96.4 Seattle 6 – 8 – 0 279 363 93.4 93.1 95.1 Arizona 4 – 10 – 0 255 370 88.2 90.6 88.2                       AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased New England 12 – 2 – 0 446 303 112.8 110.6 110.9 NY Jets 10 – 4 – 0 295 259 102.8 103.3 103.8 Miami 7 – 7 – 0 239 261 100.2 100.0 99.7 Buffalo 4 – 10 – 0 273 353 98.3 98.0 97.7                       AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Baltimore 10 – 4 – 0 324 253 106.7 105.4 106.2 Pittsburgh 10 – 4 – 0 307 220 105.2 105.4 106.5 Cleveland 5 – 9 – 0 252 271 99.6 98.3 95.0 Cincinnati 3 – 11 – 0 281 362 95.3 95.9 94.3                       AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Indianapolis 8 – 6 – 0 381 342 101.2 102.2 101.5 Jacksonville 8 – 6 – 0 319 365 99.1 99.0 101.0 Houston 5 – 9 – 0 333 386 98.7 98.0 97.2 Tennessee 6 – 8 – 0 322 282 95.4 100.3 98.2                       AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Diego 8 – 6 – 0 388 260 106.9 106.3 105.9 Oakland 7 – 7 – 0 353 330 99.9 99.7 101.3 Kansas City 9 – 5 – 0 322 281 99.4 100.7 99.6 Denver 3 – 11 – 0 292 415 91.0 91.8 93.2 PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PITTSBURGH	Carolina	18.7	20.7	20.4	13.5	37
Dallas	ARIZONA	7.5	5.6	8.6	6.5	45
MIAMI	Detroit	4.9	2.3	3.9	3.5	41.5
PHILADELPHIA	Minnesota	16.1	13	15.4	NL	NL
JACKSONVILLE	Washington	8.2	5.1	8.6	7	45.5
ST. LOUIS	San Francisco	1.6	2.6	1.4	2.5	39.5
TAMPA BAY	Seattle	7.2	7.8	7.2	6	44
New England	BUFFALO	12.5	10.6	13.2	7.5	44
CHICAGO	New York Jets	4	4.1	4.1	2.5	36
Baltimore	CLEVELAND	4.1	4.1	8.2	3.5	38.5
KANSAS CITY	Tennessee	8	4.4	5.4	5	42
OAKLAND	Indianapolis	1.7	0.5	2.8	-3	47
Houston	DENVER	4.7	3.2	1	3	48.5
GREEN BAY	New York Giants	6	5.9	4.7	NL	NL
San Diego	CINCINNATI	8.6	7.4	8.6	7.5	44
ATLANTA	New Orleans	5.8	6.3	6	2.5	48.5

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

N F C

1. Atlanta 13-3

2. Philadelphia 12-4

3. Chicago 11-5

4. San Francisco 7-9

5. New Orleans 12-4

6. Green Bay 10-6

 

A F C

1. New England 14-2

2. Baltimore 12-4

3. San Diego 10-6

4. Jacksonville 10-6

5. New York Jets 11-5

6. Pittsburgh 11-5

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Chicago over Green Bay

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Philadelphia over Chicago

Atlanta over New Orleans

 

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

New England over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate QB Passer Rating 



Player	Team	G	AYPA	Int %	PiRate
Tom Brady	NE	14	6.8	0.89	114.2
Michael Vick	PHI	11	6.6	1.52	107.6
Matt Cassel	KC	13	5.8	1.31	105.0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	10	6	1.49	104.5
Josh Freeman	TB	14	5.7	1.42	103.4
Phillip Rivers	SD	14	7	2.37	102.3
Vince Young	TEN	9	6.2	1.92	101.8
Joe Flacco	BAL	14	5.7	1.77	100.3
Kyle Orton	DEN	13	5.6	1.81	99.5
Colt McCoy	CLE	6	5.7	1.97	98.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	14	5.2	1.76	97.6
Matt Schaub	HOU	14	5.6	2.12	96.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	13	6.1	2.44	96.7
Peyton Manning	IND	14	5.6	2.46	93.7
Kevin Kolb	PHI	6	4.9	2.61	88.4
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	14	4.6	2.55	87.3
Tony Romo	DAL	6	5.7	3.29	87.0
Jason Campbell	OAK	11	5.1	3.05	85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	12	4.9	2.97	85.3
Jon Kitna	DAL	9	5.4	3.36	84.7
Drew Brees	NO	14	5.2	3.33	83.8
Sam Bradford	STL	14	4.1	2.71	83.1
Kerry Collins	TEN	8	4.5	2.97	83.1
Donovan McNabb	WAS	13	4.8	3.18	82.9
Shaun Hill	DET	9	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jay Cutler	CHI	13	4.9	3.53	80.4
Derek Anderson	ARI	12	4.1	3.06	80.0
Chad Henne	MIA	13	4.7	3.48	79.7
Alex Smith	SF	9	4.4	3.36	79.1
Carson Palmer	CIN	14	4.4	3.46	78.2
Jimmie Clausen	CAR	11	3.1	2.88	76.0
Eli Manning	NYG	14	5	4.19	75.1
David Garrard	JAX	13	4.6	3.96	74.9
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	13	4.3	3.86	74.1
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	6	4	4.43	67.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	5	3.3	4.70	61.1
Brett Favre	MIN	13	4	5.31	59.7
Matt Moore	CAR	6	2	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
						AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
						AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
NY Giants	9	–	4	–	0	329	250	107.1	105.4	105.6
Philadelphia	9	–	4	–	0	374	308	107.0	105.4	105.6
Dallas	4	–	9	–	0	321	366	99.0	99.8	99.9
Washington	5	–	8	–	0	238	310	93.6	95.8	92.6
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	8	–	5	–	0	306	189	108.6	106.7	105.0
Chicago	9	–	4	–	0	253	228	101.6	101.7	103.2
Minnesota	5	–	8	–	0	230	274	97.3	98.4	97.5
Detroit	3	–	10	–	0	285	309	96.5	98.1	94.8
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Atlanta	11	–	2	–	0	335	243	106.9	106.1	107.5
New Orleans	10	–	3	–	0	330	240	106.3	105.0	106.6
Tampa Bay	8	–	5	–	0	260	267	99.4	99.9	101.2
Carolina	1	–	12	–	0	164	338	90.3	88.9	89.4
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco	5	–	8	–	0	243	280	98.2	97.1	99.8
St. Louis	6	–	7	–	0	245	268	96.5	95.7	98.0
Seattle	6	–	7	–	0	261	329	94.2	93.7	96.5
Arizona	4	–	9	–	0	243	351	88.4	91.3	92.5
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	11	–	2	–	0	415	276	113.1	111.8	111.1
NY Jets	9	–	4	–	0	273	242	101.6	101.1	102.5
Miami	7	–	6	–	0	225	244	101.2	101.4	101.9
Buffalo	3	–	10	–	0	256	339	97.3	97.1	96.0
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Pittsburgh	10	–	3	–	0	290	198	106.4	106.2	107.4
Baltimore	9	–	4	–	0	294	229	106.3	104.8	105.4
Cleveland	5	–	8	–	0	235	252	99.9	99.1	96.9
Cincinnati	2	–	11	–	0	262	345	95.0	95.1	93.9
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	7	–	6	–	0	347	318	100.7	101.3	101.7
Houston	5	–	8	–	0	316	355	100.2	100.0	99.0
Jacksonville	8	–	5	–	0	295	331	99.6	99.8	101.8
Tennessee	5	–	8	–	0	291	265	93.9	97.8	93.7
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	7	–	6	–	0	354	253	105.3	105.9	104.2
Oakland	6	–	7	–	0	314	307	99.2	99.1	99.8
Kansas City	8	–	5	–	0	295	268	98.1	98.6	99.5
Denver	3	–	10	–	0	269	376	91.7	92.3	89.7

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog				PiRate		Mean		Bias	Vegas		Totals
SAN DIEGO	San Francisco				11.1		12.8		8.4	8 1/2		44 1/2
ST. LOUIS	Kansas City				1.4		0.1		2.5	NL		NL
Houston	TENNESSEE				3.3		-0.8		2.3	-1 1/2		47
INDIANAPOLIS	Jacksonville				4.1		4.5		2.9	5		48 1/2
CAROLINA	Arizona				4.9		0.6		-0.1	2 1/2		37 1/2
Cleveland	CINCINNATI				1.9		1.0		3.0	-2		40
MIAMI	Buffalo				5.9		6.3		7.9	5 1/2		41
NEW YORK GIANTS	Philadelphia				3.1		3.0		3.0	2 1/2		46
DALLAS	Washington				8.4		7.0		10.3	6		45
TAMPA BAY	Detroit				4.9		3.8		8.4	6		43
BALTIMORE	New Orleans				3.0		2.8		1.8	2		43 1/2
Atlanta	SEATTLE				8.7		8.4		7.0	6		45
PITTSBURGH	New York Jets				8.8		9.1		8.9	6		35 1/2
OAKLAND	Denver				10.5		9.8		13.1	6 1/2		44
NEW ENGLAND	Green Bay				7.5		8.1		9.1	NL		NL
Chicago	MINNESOTA				1.3		0.3		2.7	NL		NL
PiRate Passer #  Player		Team	G	AYPA		Int%		PiRate #
Tom Brady		NE	13	6.9		0.94		114.4
Michael Vick		PHI	10	6.8		1.36		110.1
Matt Cassel		KC	12	5.9		1.13		107.1
Ben Roethlisberger		PIT	9	6.2		1.72		103.6
Josh Freeman		TB	13	5.6		1.54		101.8
Vince Young		TEN	9	6.2		1.92		101.8
Phillip Rivers		SD	13	6.8		2.51		100.0
Joe Flacco		BAL	13	5.7		1.86		99.6
Kyle Orton		DEN	13	5.6		1.81		99.5
Matt Ryan		ATL	13	5.3		1.68		98.9
Matt Schaub		HOU	13	5.8		2.15		97.6
Aaron Rodgers		GB	13	6.1		2.44		96.7
Troy Smith		SF	5	5.6		2.38		94.4
Colt McCoy		CLE	5	5.4		2.36		93.5
Peyton Manning		IND	13	5.6		2.63		92.2
Jason Campbell		OAK	10	5		2.54		89.6
Kevin Kolb		PHI	6	4.9		2.61		88.4
Tony Romo		DAL	6	5.7		3.29		87.0
Mark Sanchez		NYJ	13	4.6		2.72		85.8
Sam Bradford		STL	13	4.3		2.53		85.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick		BUF	11	4.8		2.91		85.3
Drew Brees		NO	13	5.3		3.43		83.5
Kerry Collins		TEN	7	4.3		2.81		83.4
Donovan McNabb		WAS	13	4.8		3.18		82.9
Shaun Hill		DET	9	4.4		3.13		81.1
Jay Cutler		CHI	12	4.9		3.49		80.7
Alex Smith		SF	8	4.6		3.35		80.3
Derek Anderson		ARI	12	4.1		3.06		80.0
Jon Kitna		DAL	8	5.1		3.83		78.8
Matt Hasselbeck		SEA	12	4.6		3.55		78.6
Chad Henne		MIA	12	4.7		3.63		78.4
Carson Palmer		CIN	13	4.2		3.62		75.6
Eli Manning		NYG	13	4.9		4.34		73.3
David Garrard		JAX	12	4.4		4.14		72.2
Jimmie Clausen		CAR	10	2.8		3.13		72.2
Bruce Gradkowski		OAK	6	4		4.43		67.4
Brett Favre		MIN	12	4.1		5.13		61.8
Jake Delhomme		CLE	5	3.3		4.70		61.1
Matt Moore		CAR	6	2		6.99		33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New Orleans

2. Philadelphia

3. Chicago

4. Seattle

5. Atlanta

6. New York Giants

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Jacksonville

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. New York Jets

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago over New York Giants

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Jacksonville over New York Jets

San Diego over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

New Orleans over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Chicago

 

New England over San Diego

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

New Orleans over New England

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 14–December 9-13, 2010

PiRate Picks Against The Spread For Last Week

We had to wait a day to post our results of last week’s picks against the spread because we wanted to go with the Patriots on Monday Night Football.  Thanks to that game completing a successful parlay, our picks finished 2-1 for the week.

 

Before we review our picks, let us take this brief moment to send an advanced warning to our subscribers.  We will only make one selection this week, but this is not to infer that we consider it an iron-clad lock of the year.  With the college season over except for the Army-Navy game (which we will lay off), it leaves just NFL games until the start of the bowls.  We have five or six games we like, but we can only make one, 13-point teaser parlay.  Consider this game like all others we give to you—on equal footing. 

 

Okay, let us now review our three selections from last week.

 

1. 13-point Teaser Parlay

Minnesota +7 ½ vs. Buffalo, Cleveland +18 ½ vs. Miami, Tennessee +9 ½ vs. Jacksonville, and Denver +20 ½ vs. Kansas City

Loss

The Tennessee Titans, and their lack of offense, did us in on this parlay.  We liked all four underdogs covering against these big numbers, but the Titans lost by 11 after extending their streak of not scoring an offensive touchdown for almost 3 ½ games.

 

2. 13-point Teaser Parlay

New York Giants +5 ½ vs. Washington, Chicago +8 vs. Detroit, Green Bay +4 ½ vs. San Francisco, New Orleans +6 ½ vs. Cincinnati

WON

This is more of the same.  We went with four favorites by small amounts and moved the spread so that they were now all underdogs.

 

3. 13-point Teaser Parlay

Oakland +26 vs. San Diego, St. Louis +10 vs. Arizona, Baltimore +16 vs. Pittsburgh, and New England +9 ½ vs. New York Jets

WON

We figured San Diego could not win by more than three touchdowns, so we took the Raiders, not expecting them to pull off the upset.  We felt as if Arizona would have a tough time beating Carolina or Detroit by 10, so it was safe taking the Rams at that number.  We believed the Steelers would score less than 17 points, so we loved the Ravens in this pick.  And, we held on until Monday night so we could take the Patriots at home as almost double-digit ‘dogs. 

 

 

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Philadelphia	8	–	4	–	0	344	281	106.9	104.9	105.6
NY Giants	8	–	4	–	0	308	247	105.9	103.7	105.2
Dallas	4	–	8	–	0	294	336	99.1	99.5	100.0
Washington	5	–	7	–	0	222	293	93.7	96.5	95.3
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	8	–	4	–	0	303	182	110.2	108.5	106.4
Chicago	9	–	3	–	0	246	192	103.4	104.1	104.2
Minnesota	5	–	7	–	0	227	253	98.5	99.4	99.3
Detroit	2	–	10	–	0	278	306	94.9	97.0	92.7
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Atlanta	10	–	2	–	0	304	233	106.1	105.1	106.7
New Orleans	9	–	3	–	0	299	227	105.6	103.3	105.7
Tampa Bay	7	–	5	–	0	243	251	99.3	100.1	101.4
Carolina	1	–	11	–	0	154	307	91.1	88.6	89.0
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
St. Louis	6	–	6	–	0	232	237	97.2	97.2	97.4
San Francisco	4	–	8	–	0	203	259	96.9	95.3	95.1
Seattle	6	–	6	–	0	240	289	95.5	95.4	96.7
Arizona	3	–	9	–	0	200	338	86.0	89.1	89.9
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	10	–	2	–	0	379	269	111.3	108.6	110.9
NY Jets	9	–	3	–	0	267	232	102.8	102.7	104.4
Miami	6	–	6	–	0	215	238	100.0	100.3	99.1
Buffalo	2	–	10	–	0	243	333	96.3	96.0	95.1
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Pittsburgh	9	–	3	–	0	267	191	106.2	105.6	107.4
Baltimore	8	–	4	–	0	260	201	106.2	104.8	106.1
Cleveland	5	–	7	–	0	229	239	100.9	99.7	101.6
Cincinnati	2	–	10	–	0	255	322	95.2	95.6	92.4
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	6	–	6	–	0	317	290	100.6	101.3	100.1
Houston	5	–	7	–	0	288	321	100.3	99.3	99.0
Jacksonville	7	–	5	–	0	257	300	99.3	99.4	101.2
Tennessee	5	–	7	–	0	263	235	94.0	99.1	96.5
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	6	–	6	–	0	323	353	103.7	103.5	101.1
Kansas City	8	–	4	–	0	295	237	99.7	101.8	101.2
Oakland	6	–	6	–	0	283	269	99.5	99.1	100.0
Denver	3	–	9	–	0	256	333	94.1	95.1	93.3

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 14: December 9-13, 2010
Vegas Line as of 1:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
Indianapolis	TENNESSEE	3.6	-0.8	-0.6	3	46 1/2
JACKSONVILLE	Oakland	2.8	3.3	4.2	4 1/2	43
PITTSBURGH	Cincinnati	15.0	14.0	19.0	9	39 1/2
New England	CHICAGO	4.9	1.5	3.7	3	41
Cleveland	BUFFALO	2.6	1.7	4.5	-1 1/2	40
New York Giants	MINNESOTA	4.4	1.3	2.9	2 1/2	44
Green Bay	DETROIT	11.3	7.5	9.7	6 1/2	47 1/2
Atlanta	CAROLINA	12.0	13.5	14.7	7 1/2	42
Tampa Bay	WASHINGTON	2.6	0.6	3.1	2	41
NEW ORLEANS	St. Louis	11.4	9.1	11.3	9	47
SAN FRANCISCO	Seattle	5.4	3.9	2.4	4 1/2	41
NEW YORK JETS	Miami	6.8	6.4	9.3	5 1/2	41
Denver	ARIZONA	5.1	3.0	0.4	4	43
SAN DIEGO	Kansas City	8.0	5.7	3.9	7	46 1/2
Philadelphia	DALLAS	4.8	2.4	2.6	3 1/2	50 1/2
Baltimore	HOUSTON	2.9	2.5	4.1	3	45 1/2

 

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

NFC East

When the New York Giants bring their A-game, they are the best team in the NFC.  When they don’t, they are not playoff worthy.

 

The Eagles have continued to play at an even keel for most of the season.  We believe Philadelphia will edge the Giants for the Division title, while the Giants have to sweat it out in week 17 to see if they qualify for a Wildcard berth. 

 

Division Winner: Philadelphia

Wildcard: None

 

NFC North

The Chicago Bears have come on strong as the weather turned cold.  They have a tough closing schedule, and we believe they will fall a couple of times.

 

Green Bay has been the most consistent NFC team from week one to week 13.  We believe the Packers will catch and pass the Bears in the final five games.

 

Minnesota has virtually no chance of getting into the playoffs, even if they run the table to finish 9-7.  However, they could be a big spoiler.

 

Division Winner: Green Bay

Wildcard: Chicago

 

NFC South

Atlanta is in the cat-bird seat.  The Falcons host New Orleans, and they own a three-point overtime win over the Saints at the Superdome.  They have two games remaining with Carolina and a visit to Seattle.  They could run the table, but at the worst, they should finish 13-3 and earn home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

 

The New Orleans offense is beginning to pick up the pace.  The Saints have scored at least 30 points in each of their last four games.  Their final three games are tough, having to play at Baltimore, at Atlanta, and hosting Tampa Bay.  We cannot see them running the table.

 

Tampa Bay is still alive, but we believe the Buccaneers will finish no better than 9-7.  11-5 could be the necessary record to qualify as a wildcard this year.

 

Division Winner: Atlanta

Wildcard: New Orleans

 

NFC West

8-8 could very well be all that is needed to win this division.  On the other hand, we could see two teams finishing 8-8.  St. Louis and Seattle remained tied at 6-6.  The Seahawks have a tougher final four games.  They host Atlanta and St. Louis, and they play at San Francisco and Tampa Bay.  They may be eliminated by the time the Rams come to Seattle in the final week.

 

Division Winner: St. Louis

Wildcard: None

 

AFC East

New England probably secured home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with their six-touchdown win over the Jets last night.  The Patriots are ripe for an upset loss this weekend at Chicago, but we believe they have a better than 50% chance of winning.  They host the Packers the following week, and then close at Buffalo and at home against Miami.  They could run the table, but they will win at least 13 games.

 

The Jets have had trouble scoring against the playoff caliber defenses.  They still must play at Pittsburgh and at Chicago, and we believe they could lose both games.  Home games with Buffalo and Miami should allow the Jets to hang on for a playoff spot.

 

Division Winner: New England

Wildcard: New York Jets

 

AFC North

Pittsburgh holds a one game lead over Baltimore.  Both teams’ defenses are getting ready for that final drive to the finish.  Baltimore has given up 36 points in their last three games, while Pittsburgh has yielded just 29.  Both teams could run the table, but we believe Cleveland could upset Pittsburgh in a meaningless finale for the Steelers, while Baltimore could meet the same fate the week before.

 

Division Winner: Pittsburgh

Wildcard: Baltimore

 

AFC South

This division fell to pieces in a hurry.  It is now a little weaker than the AFC West.  Houston and Tennessee are headed to losing records, so it leaves Indianapolis and Jacksonville for the league crown.  Jacksonville leads by a game, but the two teams must square off again at Indy in two weeks.  This week’s contests could decide whether that game will be for all the marbles.  The Colts play at Tennessee Thursday night, while Jacksonville hosts Oakland.  Both should win those games, so a Colt win the following week could produce a tie at 8-6.  The last two games favor the Jaguars, as they host Washington and close at Houston.  Indianapolis must play at Oakland, and host Tennessee.

 

Division Winner: Jacksonville

Wildcard: None

 

AFC West

This just may be the most interesting race of all.  Kansas City leads Oakland and San Diego by two games.  The Chiefs must play at San Diego this week and then follow that up with a trip across the state to St. Louis.  It would not surprise us if they were 8-6 after week 15.  They close with Tennessee and Oakland at home.

 

San Diego’s season is done if they lost to Kansas City this week.  If they get past the Chiefs, they have a great chance to win out with games against San Francisco at home and Cincinnati and Denver on the road.  They have to run the table because they are currently 1-3 in the division and have already been swept by Oakland.

 

Oakland is still in this race at 6-6.  They swept the Chargers and hold a win over Kansas City.  Even if they lose at Jacksonville this week, wins over Denver and Indianapolis at home could make the finale at Kansas City for all the marbles.

 

Denver, with a new coach, could be a big spoiler.  The Broncos get both San Diego and Oakland.  They did split with Kansas City.

 

Division Winner: Kansas City

Wildcard: None

 

Projected Playoff Seedings

N F C

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. Philadelphia

4. St. Louis

5. New Orleans

6. Chicago

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Kansas City

4. Jacksonville

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore

 

Projected Playoffs

Wildcard Round

Chicago over Philadelphia

New Orleans over St. Louis

Baltimore over Kansas City

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Round

Atlanta over Chicago

Green Bay over New Orleans

New England over Baltimore

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Green Bay over Atlanta

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

Green Bay over New England

 

 

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 13–December 2-6, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	7	–	4	–	0	310	257	106.6	105.7	105.8	2
NY Giants	7	–	4	–	0	277	240	103.3	102.5	103.3	2
Dallas	3	–	8	–	0	256	301	96.8	98.9	99.5	2
Washington	5	–	6	–	0	215	262	96.3	97.1	96.1	3
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Green Bay	7	–	4	–	0	269	166	109.9	109.9	106.8	3
Chicago	8	–	3	–	0	222	172	103.3	103.4	104.7	4
Minnesota	4	–	7	–	0	189	239	97.1	99.0	99.6	3
Detroit	2	–	9	–	0	258	282	95.0	96.7	93.9	4
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Atlanta	9	–	2	–	0	276	209	106.3	105.3	106.9	4
New Orleans	8	–	3	–	0	265	197	105.8	104.5	106.6	2
Tampa Bay	7	–	4	–	0	219	223	99.1	99.0	100.6	2
Carolina	1	–	10	–	0	140	276	92.7	90.0	90.3	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Francisco	4	–	7	–	0	187	225	97.2	95.4	98.3	4
St. Louis	5	–	6	–	0	213	231	95.2	94.5	97.1	4
Seattle	5	–	6	–	0	209	275	93.9	92.5	95.3	3
Arizona	3	–	8	–	0	194	319	88.0	88.3	89.7	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New England	9	–	2	–	0	334	266	107.8	107.0	107.5	3
NY Jets	9	–	2	–	0	264	187	106.3	105.5	106.3	2
Miami	6	–	5	–	0	205	225	102.3	101.3	102.3	3
Buffalo	2	–	9	–	0	229	295	97.7	97.1	97.0	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Baltimore	8	–	3	–	0	250	188	107.4	105.9	106.1	4
Pittsburgh	8	–	3	–	0	254	181	105.0	105.7	104.9	2
Cleveland	4	–	7	–	0	216	229	98.6	99.5	98.2	4
Cincinnati	2	–	9	–	0	225	288	95.0	95.5	91.3	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Indianapolis	6	–	5	–	0	282	252	102.9	102.9	102.2	4
Houston	5	–	6	–	0	264	287	100.6	100.3	99.4	2
Tennessee	5	–	6	–	0	257	218	96.7	102.1	96.5	4
Jacksonville	6	–	5	–	0	240	294	96.6	96.5	98.4	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Diego	6	–	5	–	0	310	225	106.9	106.2	104.2	4
Kansas City	7	–	4	–	0	285	231	100.2	100.2	101.1	4
Oakland	5	–	6	–	0	255	256	96.3	96.4	97.7	2
Denver	3	–	8	–	0	250	323	93.6	95.2	92.2	2

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 13: December 2-6, 2010
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PHILADELPHIA	Houston	8.0	7.4	8.4	8 1/2	51 1/2
MINNESOTA	Buffalo	2.4	4.9	5.6	6	44 1/2
MIAMI	Cleveland	6.7	4.8	7.1	4 1/2	42 1/2
TENNESSEE	Jacksonville	4.1	9.6	2.1	NL	NL
KANSAS CITY	Denver	10.6	9.0	12.9	8 1/2	45 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS	Washington	9.0	7.4	9.2	7	43
Chicago	DETROIT	4.3	2.7	6.8	3 1/2	44 1/2
GREEN BAY	San Francisco	15.7	17.5	11.5	9 1/2	42
New Orleans	CINCINNATI	7.8	6.0	12.3	6 1/2	46 1/2
Atlanta	TAMPA BAY	5.2	4.3	4.3	3	44 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Oakland	14.6	13.8	10.5	12 1/2	45 1/2
SEATTLE	Carolina	4.2	5.5	8.0	6	39 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	Dallas	10.1	8.0	6.7	5 1/2	47 1/2
St. Louis	ARIZONA	3.2	2.2	3.4	3	43
BALTIMORE	Pittsburgh	6.4	4.2	5.2	3	40
NEW ENGLAND	New York Jets	4.5	4.5	4.2	3 1/2	46

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int %	#
Michael Vick	Phi	6.8	0.43	118.3
Tom Brady	NE	6.5	1.12	110.5
Kyle Orton	Den	6.3	1.40	107.0
Matt Cassel	KC	6.0	1.24	106.7
Matt Ryan	Atl	5.6	1.23	104.5
Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	6.4	1.82	103.8
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.39	102.1
Josh Freeman	TB	5.6	1.53	101.9
Vince Young	Ten	6.2	1.92	101.8
Matt Shaub	Hou	5.8	1.91	99.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	6.2	2.44	97.3
Seneca Wallace	Cle	5.4	2.00	96.6
Joe Flacco	Bal	5.7	2.19	96.6
Peyton Manning	Ind	5.6	2.26	95.5
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.2	2.20	93.8
Colt McCoy	Cle	5.4	2.36	93.5
Sam Bradford	Stl	4.5	2.18	90.0
Matt Hasselebeck	Sea	4.9	2.56	88.9
Kevin Kolb	Phi	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	Dal	5.7	3.29	87.0
Drew Brees	NO	5.4	3.29	85.3
Chad Henne	Mia	5.3	3.27	84.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	Buf	4.8	3.03	84.2
Kerry Collins	Ten	4.2	2.80	82.8
Jay Cutler	Chi	5.0	3.42	81.9
Donovan McNabb	Was	4.8	3.31	81.8
Derek Anderson	Ari	4.2	2.93	81.7
Shaun Hill	Det	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jason Campbell	Oak	4.2	3.16	79.7
Jon Kitna	Dal	5.2	4.00	77.9
Carson Palmer	Cin	4.3	3.47	77.5
Eli Manning	NYG	5.2	4.26	75.7
Jimmy Clausen	Car	3.1	3.01	74.9
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
David Garrard	Jax	4.3	4.42	69.2
Bruce Gradkowski	Oak	4.0	4.43	67.4
Brett Favre	Min	4.2	4.86	64.8
Matt Moore	Car	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  This statistic removed the receivers’ Yards After Catch.

AYPA can be found at www.advancednflstats.com

Projected NFL Playoff Seedings

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. Chicago Bears

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. St. Louis Rams

5. Green Bay Packers

6. New Orleans Saints

AFC

1. New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. San Diego Chargers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore Ravens

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Green Bay over St. Louis

Baltimore over San Diego

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Divisional Round

Atlanta over New Orleans

Chicago over Green Bay

Baltimore over New England

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

Conference Championships

Chicago over Atlanta

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL

Chicago over Baltimore