A PiRate Look at the NCAA Basketball Conference Tournaments
March 12, 2008, 6th Update
Conference Tournament Results through Tuesday, March 11, 2008
America East
1st Three Rounds At Binghamton, NY. Championship Game At Higher Seed
Opening Round
#8 Stony Brook 73 vs. #9 Maine 65 ot
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#1 Md. Balt. Co. 76 Stony Brook 60
#4 Vermont 65 #5 Binghamton 57
#2 Hartford 68 #7 New Hampshire 65
#6 Boston U. 68 #3 Albany 64 ot
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
Md. Balt. Co. 73 Vermont 64
Hartford 59 Boston U. 52
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
Hartford 18-15 at Maryland-Baltimore Co. 23-8
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
UMBC didn’t have to play Binghamton, and that made their task much easier. Hartford had a tough time with two weak opponents to get this far, and the clock will strike midnight for them Saturday. While these two teams split a pair of one-point games during the regular season, I believe UMBC should win this rubber match by 10 or more points and earn their first trip to the Big Dance, where they could be a #14 seed. Of particular interest in this championship game will be the match-up of two, small, but beefy forwards. Hartford’s Warren McLendon and UMBC’s Darryl Proctor will battle it out for close to 40 minutes and make this game worth watching.
Atlantic Sun
Quarterfinals
#4 East Tennessee 81 #5 Lipscomb 74
#6 Gardner-Webb 82 #3 Stetson 63
#2 Jacksonville 65 #7 Mercer 57
#1 Belmont 75 #8 Campbell 66
Semifinals
Jacksonville 89 Gardner-Webb 80
Belmont 69 East Tennessee 65
Saturday, March 8
Championship
Belmont 79 Jacksonville 61
The Bruins broke out of their two-game mini-slump and hit the outside shots. When Belmont gets hot from behind the arc, they are tough against any opponent. At 25-8, they should not be a #16 or #15 seed playing a Final Four team in the first round like they have the past two seasons.
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Big Sky
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#4 Idaho State 67 #5 Montana 65
#3 Weber State 65 #6 Montana State 49
Tuesday, March 11 @ Portland, OR
Semifinals
#1 Portland State 72 Idaho State 61
#2 Northern Arizona 75 Weber State 70
Wednesday, March 12 @ Portland, OR
Championship Game
Northern Arizona 21-10 at Portland State 22-9
Portland State has won 13 of its last 14 games. The Vikings swept Northern Arizona during the season and get to host the championship game. At home in the Big Sky, PSU went undefeated. The Viking backcourt is by far the best in the league, and their frontcourt, led by big Canadian Scott Morrison, isn’t exactly a liability. It looks like an easy trip to the Big Dance for Coach Ken Bone and his squad, correct? Not on your life!
Northern Arizona has run off six consecutive victories, and the Lumberjacks have a dominating inside presence in Kyle Landry. In the two games against PSU, Landry didn’t produce in the 14-point loss, but he had a great game in the narrow three-point loss. He needs to go for about 18 points and 10 rebounds tonight to make this a great game. The Lumberjacks’ backcourt is strong, but not as strong as their opponent tonight. If you watch this game, look at how the teams’ two play-makers perform in the early going. If one has better fluidity running his team’s offense, that may tip you off as to which team is going to win. For Portland State, look at #10 Jeremiah Dominguez (tiny 5-6 sparkplug); for NAU, monitor #21 Josh Wilson
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Big South
Opening Round
#1 UNC-Asheville 87 #8 Charleston Southern 63
#4 Liberty 103 #5 VMI 88
#2 Winthrop 76 #7 Radford 45
#3 High Point 59 #6 Coastal Carolina 56
Semifinals
UNC-Asheville 75 Liberty 57
Winthrop 61 High Point 53
Saturday, March 8 @ Asheville, NC
Championship Game
Winthrop 66 UNC-Asheville 48
Winthrop’s defense completely shut down the UNCA offense, and the home team panicked when they found themselves down by eight points. This Eagle team is not as talented as last year’s great squad, but they could cause a headache for the opposing coach in a first-round NCAA Tournament game.
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Colonial Athletic Association
All Games Played At Richmond, VA (Virginia Commonwealth host team)
#9 Towson State 81 #8 Towson State 66
#5 William & Mary 58 #12 Georgia State 57
#6 Delaware 60 #11 Drexel 51
#7 Northeastern 73 #10 James Madison 59
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#1 Virginia Commonwealth 57 Towson State 46
William & Mary 63 #4 Old Dominion 60
#3 UNC-Wilmington 82 Delaware 59
#2 George Mason 63 Northeastern 52
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
William & Mary 56 Virginia Commonwealth 54
George Mason 53 UNC-Wilmington 41
Monday, March 10
Championship Game
George Mason 68 William & Mary 59
George Mason’s experience and superior team play earned them another trip to the Dance, but unlike their last appearance in 2006, this one may last just one game. This team isn’t nearly as strong inside as the Final Four squad, and it will prove costly against a first-round opponent that will more than likely be just as quick and have more muscle. Expect GMU to be no better than a #13 seed.
VCU is on the bubble, but the Rams just may be NIT-bound. I expect Coach Anthony Grant to be somewhere else in October. With a plethora of bigger jobs open, he will be offered a chance to become an instant millionaire. If his team gets the shaft and doesn’t get an at-large bid, that will convince him to leave VCU for a place where a 24-7 record always gets you in the Field of 65-some place like Baton Rouge, LA.
At-Large Teams: 0 or 1
Bubble: Virginia Commonwealth 24-7 RPI Avg.: 61.3 * * = average of four RPIs I can get for free.
Horizon League
All Games Played At Indianapolis (Butler host team)
Opening Round
#3 Wright State 60 #10 Detroit 37
#6 Valparaiso 75 #7 UW-Green Bay 67
#4 Illinois-Chicago 70 #9 Youngstown State 59
#8 Loyola (Chi.) 57 #5 UW-Milwaukee 51
Quarterfinals
Valparaiso 72 Wright State 67
Illinois-Chicago 60 Loyola (Chi.) 49
Saturday, March 8
Semifinals
#2 Cleveland State 78 Valparaiso 73
#1 Butler 66 Illinois-Chicago 50
Tuesday, March 11
Championship
Butler 70 Cleveland State 55
Butler deserves to be at least a #4-seed and probably a #3-seed. This Bulldog team may be the best squad in the Midwest this year. Look at their resume. They beat Michigan by 14. They slaughtered Ohio State by 19 on a night where they couldn’t throw it in the ocean but relied on spectacular defense. They knocked off both Florida State at home and Texas Tech in Lubbock by double digits, and they added a win at Virginia Tech. They may not be my pick for the mid-major with the best chance of making the Final Four, but no big conference school is going to be happy having them as an opponent. This team should make the Sweet 16, and if they get a dream draw and don’t have to play teams that have exceptional quickness with poise, they could go deeper.
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None (Cleveland State is just below the Bubble and should get a bid to the NIT)
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
All Games Played At Albany, NY (Siena host team)
Opening Round
#8 Manhattan 73 #9 St. Peter’s 59
#10 Canisius 64 #7 Iona 59
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#1 Siena 66 Manhattan 58
#4 Loyola (Md.) 64 #5 Fairfield 59
#2 Rider 75 Canisius 71
#6 Marist 66 #3 Niagara 62
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
Siena 65 Loyola (Md.) 63
Rider 76 Marist 71
Monday, March 10
Championship Game
Siena 74 Rider 53
Siena outplayed Rider, and Coach Fran McCaffrey had his squad ready to go, while Rider coach Tommy Dempsey didn’t make the proper adjustments for his squad to stay in contention. Too many times, Rider put up ridiculous shots when Jason Thompson was still trying to get into position. Not only did it prevent the league’s most dominant low post player (maybe the best ever out of the MAAC) from dominating inside, it allowed Siena to get a leg up on their possession.
I don’t see the Saints pulling off an upset like they did when they knocked off Pac-10 champ Stanford almost 20 years ago, but they should keep a first round game close enough not to be embarrassed.
I hope Rider gets a chance to play in the NIT. Thompson needs more national coverage; he’s going to be tough to defend in the NBA.
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Missouri Valley @ St. Louis (Arch Madness)
Opening Round
#8 Indiana State 71 #9 Wichita State 67
#7 Missouri State 69 #10 Evansville 46
Quarterfinals
#1 Drake 68 Indiana State 46
#4 Creighton 74 #5 Bradley 70
#2 Illinois State 63 Missouri State 58
#6 Northern Iowa 54 #3 Southern Illinois 49
Saturday, March 8
Semifinals
Drake 75 Creighton 67
Illinois State 56 Northern Iowa 42
Sunday, March 9
Championship
Drake 79 Illinois State 49
At-Large Teams: 0 or 1
Bubble: Illinois State 23-9 RPI avg. 35.5
Drake looked like a Final Four team Sunday. The Bulldogs’ defense was reminiscent of Jerry Tarkanian’s Amoeba Defense at UNLV in 1990 and 1991. The team effort was outstanding, and if the Bulldogs continue to play with the same intensity, they will be at least a Sweet 16 team if not an Elite Eight team. Drake has one Final Four appearance in its history. In 1969, the Bulldogs had a dominating inside presence with Willie Wise, Willie McCarter, and Dolph Pulliam. In the six-year run as National Champs spanning from the years of Lew Alcindor/Kareem Abdul Jabbar to Bill Walton, it was the 1969 Drake team that came the closest to dethroning the Bruins. UCLA almost blew a double digit lead late in the game and had to hold on for a three-point victory. The Bruins then slaughtered Purdue in the championship, while Drake blew away by 20 points a North Carolina team led by Charlie Scott in the consolation game.
Even though they were embarrassed, Illinois State is firmly on the bubble. The MVC usually gets multiple teams into the Field of 65, and the Redbirds proved to be the second best team.
Northeast
Quarterfinal
#1 Robert Morris 64 #8 Monmouth 50
#4 Mt. St. Mary’s 80 #5 Quinnipiac 70
#2 Wagner 71 #7 Long Island 62
#3 Sacred Heart 84 #6 Central Connecticut State 71
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
Mt. St. Mary’s 83 Robert Morris 65
Sacred Heart 55 Wagner 49
Wednesday, March 12
Championship
Mt. St. Mary’s 17-14 at Sacred Heart 18-13
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
This is a weird set of circumstances here. Mt. St. Mary’s looked impressive in downing Quinnipiac in the quarterfinals, but what the Mountaineers did to top seed Robert Morris Sunday night was incredible. They completely destroyed a team that hadn’t lost since January 13th, and now the Mount is the hottest team in the league.
On the other side of the bracket, Sacred Heart held off Wagner to advance to the finals. It isn’t much of a surprise that the Pioneers have advanced to the championship game, which they will host Wednesday night. SHU was supposed to be the top dog in the league this year, and the team underachieved. Maybe, they will right their wrongs this week and grab the crown they were supposed to obtain all along. With MSM riding an emotional high, it figures they won’t bring their A-game to Fairfield.
Ohio Valley Conference
Quarterfinals @ Higher Seed
#1 Austin Peay 76 #8 Eastern Kentucky 51
#4 UT-Martin 101 #5 Samford 94 3ot
#2 Murray State 77 #7 Tennessee Tech 74
#6 Tennessee State 68 #3 Morehead State 61
Semifinals @ Nashville
Austin Peay 78 UT-Martin 77
Tennessee State 83 Murray State 75
Saturday, March 8
Championship
Austin Peay 82 Tennessee State 64
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Austin Peay totally dominated the championship game, and it was never in doubt after about 10 minutes of action. The Governors have a veteran team; they don’t have enough inside muscle to advance in the NCAA Tournament, but if their offense is clicking, they could make it interesting.
Patriot League
Quarterfinals
#1 American 62 #8 Holy Cross 60
#5 Army 64 #4 Lehigh 61 ot
#7 Bucknell 87 #2 Navy 86 3ot
#3 Colgate 76 #6 Lafayette 74
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
American 72 Army 60
Colgate 54 Bucknell 40
Friday, March 14
Championship
Colgate 18-13 at American 20-11
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
This should be a close game, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it went to overtime. American beat Colgate twice by eight points this year, and I expect the Red Raiders to be ready to exact some revenge.
American has won nine of its last 10 games, and the Eagles have the best backcourt in the Patriot League. In tournaments, guard play is very important, as the backcourt that makes more errors or forces the fewer errors usually comes from the losing team. I’ll go with American in this one, which will allow Coach Jeff Jones to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since he was at Virginia in the 1990’s.
Southern Conference
All Games Played At Charleston, SC (College of Charleston host team)
Opening Round
#8 Wofford 58 #9 Western Carolina 49
#7 Elon 52 #10 Furman 37
#6 Charleston 66 #11 Citadel 48
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#1 Davidson 82 Wofford 49
#5 UNC-Greensboro 63 #4 Appalachian State 46
Elon 60 #2 Chattanooga 57
Coll. of Charleston 87 #3 Georgia Southern 73
Sunday, March 9
Semifinals
Davidson 82 UNCG 52
Elon 75 Charleston 61
Monday, March 10
Championship Game
Davidson 65 Elon 49
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
In the 1973 Belmont Stakes, the great Secretariat ran so far ahead of the field, it was if he took a wrong turn and ended up on another track. As he was flying down the stretch, the CBS announcer commented that Secretariat was “running like a tremendous machine!” That’s the way Davidson has been to the rest of the SoCon field. The Wildcats just show up and play their average game, and that’s good enough to beat any league foe by double digits. Monday night, the Wildcats did nothing spectacular, but they destroyed Elon in the Championship game.
What should worry Davidson fans is the fact that this team hasn’t been tested for three months. The effort that easily won them the conference championship game will not suffice against a Purdue, Mississippi State, Stanford, or Clemson. It will not get them a win over Butler, Drake, or even San Diego. It might be enough to beat Winthrop, Siena, or Austin Peay, but this Wildcat team knows it is good enough to play even into April. If Davidson plays like they did against Wofford and UNC-Greensboro in the first two tournament games or like they did against Georgia Southern in the regular season finale, they can be the 2008 version of George Mason. They know they can compete against North Carolina, Duke, and UCLA, so there isn’t a team than can intimidate them. It’s all up to the players; if they bring their A-game to the Dance, they will advance to the Sweet 16 and have a shot at becoming one of the members of the last quartet in the tourney. They missed by a few seconds of doing just that in 1968 and 1969, when North Carolina edged them by four and two points respectively in the East Regional Finals.
Summit League @ Tulsa (Oral Roberts host team)
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#1 Oral Roberts 84 #8 Centenary 56
#2 IUPUI 69 #7 Missouri-Kansas City 65
Sunday, March 9
Quarterfinals
#5 IPFW 66 #4 Southern Utah 62
#3 Oakland 80 #6 Western Illinois 66
Monday, March 10
Semifinals
Oral Roberts 58 IPFW 42
IUPUI 80 Oakland 65
Tuesday, March 11
Championship
Oral Roberts 71 IUPUI 64
At-Large Teams: 0
Bubble: None (IUPUI’s RPI is too low for consideration)
Oral Roberts takes care of the ball, plays very good defense, and rebounds well. They rarely beat themselves, but I don’t see the Golden Eagles playing past the first weekend of the Big Dance, and I don’t give them much chance to play more than one game. I expect they will draw a third or fourth place team from a power conference, and they don’t have the talent to compete against a Connecticut, Oklahoma, Clemson, or Southern Cal.
Sunbelt Conference
1st Round
#8 New Orleans 65 #9 Denver 60
#4 Middle Tennessee 74 #13 Louisiana Monroe 69
#12 Troy 70 #5 Louisiana Lafayette 60
#6 North Texas 85 #11 Arkansas State 63
#7 Florida Atlantic 91 #10 Florida International 64
Sunday, March 9 @ Mobile, AL
Quarterfinals
South Alabama 81 New Orleans 77
Middle Tennessee 65 Troy 59
Western Kentucky 84 North Texas 70
Arkansas Little Rock 66 Florida Atlantic 60
Monday, March 10 @ Mobile, AL
Semifinals
Middle Tennessee 82 South Alabama 73
Western Kentucky 70 Arkansas-Little Rock 55
Tuesday, March 11 @ Mobile, AL
Championship
Western Kentucky 67 Middle Tennessee 57
At-Large Teams: 0 or 1
Bubble: South Alabama (Avg. RPI 39.3)
Western Kentucky looked like a team that belonged in the Big Dance in the Sunbelt Tournament. The Hilltoppers handled North Texas, UALR, and MTSU by an average of 13 points. WKU has enough talent to be a match-up problem for many teams. I could see the Hilltoppers taking a patient team out of their comfort zone and with the aid of one quick run put a game out of reach. In a year where at least a half dozen mid-majors have the talent to advance to the Sweet 16, you have to include Western in the mix. If Jeremy Evans continues to play the way he did in the last two games, this team could make a run at the Final Four. The only real weakness was a lack of an outstanding post presence, but Evans not only rectified that liability in the semis and finals, he helped offset a shooting slump by star shooter Courtney Lee.
South Alabama will sit on pins and needles until next Sunday. The Jaguars have an RPI good enough to get them an at-large invitation, but there are still too many tournaments left that could produce a surprise winner and burst some bubbles.
West Coast Conference
All Games Played At San Diego (San Diego host team)
Opening Round
#5 San Francisco 79 # 8 Loyola Marymount 60
#6 Pepperdine 50 #7 Portland 48 ot
Saturday, March 8
Quarterfinals
#4 Santa Clara 51 San Francisco 50
#3 San Diego 75 Pepperdine 55
Sunday, March 9
#1 Gonzaga 52 Santa Clara 48
San Diego 75 #2 St. Mary’s 69 2ot
Monday, March 10
Championship Game
San Diego 69 Gonzaga 62
At-Large Teams: 0, 1 or 2 (Gonzaga & St. Mary’s)
Bubble: St. Mary’s 25-6 Avg. RPI 39.5
Gonzaga 25-7 Avg. RPI 30.3
Here’s where some bubble teams are a bit nervous. The host team San Diego Toreros knocked off St. Mary’s and Gonzaga. St. Mary’s and Gonzaga both deserve at-large bids, so three WCC teams getting invitations will hurt teams like Florida, Villanova, Syracuse, Ohio State, Kansas State, and the like.
As for USD, remember this is a team that won at Kentucky this year. They could win a first round game.
Already Clinched Automatic Berth in NCAA Tournament (12)
1. Cornell (22-5)-Ivy League Champion
2. Winthrop (22-11)-Big South Champion
3. Austin Peay (24-10)-Ohio Valley Champion
4. Belmont (25-8)-Atlantic Sun Champion
5. Drake (28-4)-Missouri Valley Champion
6. George Mason (23-10)-Colonial Champion
7. Siena (22-10)-Metro Atlantic Champion
8. Davidson (26-6)-Southern Champion
9. San Diego (21-13)-West Coast Champion
10. Oral Roberts (24-8)-Summit Champion
11. Western Kentucky (27-6)-Sunbelt Champion
12. Butler (29-3)-Horizon Champion
This may be the best first dozen automatic qualifiers ever. Of this group, at least six have a chance of winning first round games, while three or four are good enough to make it to the Sweet 16.
Only 53 teams left to go!
Conference Tournaments Beginning Tuesday, March 11
MEAC @ Raleigh, NC
Tuesday, March 11
Opening Round
#7 Coppin State 55 #10 Howard 54
#8 South Carolina State 78 #9 Bethune Cookman 69
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#6 Florida A&M 14-16 vs. #11 Maryland Eastern Shore 4-27
Quarterfinal Round
#2 Hampton 18-11 vs. Coppin State 13-20
#1 Morgan State 20-9 vs. South Carolina State 13-19
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinal Round
#3 Norfolk State 15-14 vs. winner of FAMU-UMES
#4 Delaware State 13-15 vs. #5 North Carolina A&T 15-15
Friday, March 14
Semifinal Round
Morgan St.-SC State vs. Del. St.-NCAT
Hampton-Coppin vs. Norfolk-FAMU-UMES
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
Note: There will be a bonus game prior to the Championship Game to be played between North Carolina Central (3-26) and Winston-Salem State (12-17), two future MEAC teams.
Morgan State gives the MEAC its best chance to win an NCAA Tournament game, but it’s no given they will survive the MEAC Tournament. Even though the Golden Bears won 13 of their final 14 games, the MEAC Tournament is the Saratoga Race Track of the NCAA-it’s where champions get upset. Just ask Delaware State last year. The Hornets were more dominating in 2007 than Morgan State has been this year, but they fell to Florida A&M in the title game.
Who might be this season’s FAMU? I’d keep an eye on Jerry Eaves’ North Carolina A&T team. The Aggies have the depth to win three games in three days, and they have enough scoring options so that somebody will have a hot hand every game.
At-large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
WAC @ Las Cruces, NM
Tuesday, March 11
Opening Round
#8 San Jose State 64 Louisiana Tech 62
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinal Round
#1 Utah State 23-9 vs. San Jose State 13-18
#4 Boise State 22-8 vs. Hawaii 11-18
#2 Nevada 20-10 vs. #7 Fresno State 13-18
#3 New Mexico State 19-13 vs. #6 Idaho 8-20
Friday, March 14
Semifinal Round
Utah State-San Jose St. vs. Boise State-Hawaii
Nevada-Fresno State vs. New Mexico St.-Idaho
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
In a conference where four teams tied for the regular season championship, it is obvious that the tournament will be interesting with lots of nail-biter games. If the four co-champions survive to the semifinal round, the WAC will be the talk of the West. You have to consider New Mexico State the favorite, as they are really tough to beat in Las Cruces. You have to pull for Utah State this year. Last season, the Aggies lost in the title game to New Mexico State 72-70. In 2006, they lost in overtime in the final to Nevada. One more basket in either year would have won the Championship for them.
Nevada wasn’t supposed to fare this well this season after losing superstar Nick Fazekas to graduation. Coach Mark Fox may be in the hunt for a big time job soon.
Unfortunately for this league, no team appears to be on the radar screen for at-large consideration. No team has an RPI average near bubble range.
At-large Teams: 0
Bubble: None (no team is in the 60’s in RPI)
Conference Tournaments Beginning Wednesday, March 14
Atlantic 10 @ Atlantic City, NJ
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#8 Dayton 20-9 vs. #9 St. Louis 16-14
#5 St. Joseph’s 18-11 vs. #12 Fordham 12-16
#7 LaSalle 14-16 vs. #10 Duquesne 17-12
#6 Charlotte 18-12 vs. #11 Rhode Island 21-10
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 Xavier 26-5 vs. 8/9 winner
#4 Richmond 16-13 vs. 5/12 winner
#2 Temple 18-12 vs. 7/10 winner
#3 Massachusetts 21-9 vs. 6/11 winner
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
1/8/9 winner vs. 4/5/12 winner
2/7/10 winner vs. 3/6/11 winner
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
At-large Teams: 1 or 2 (Xavier for sure, U Mass maybe)
Bubble: U Mass
Xavier is in the Big Dance even if they drop their first A-10 Tournament game. U Mass finished the season on a roll, as Coach Travis Ford had his Minutemen playing like a Rick Pitino Kentucky team out of the 199o’s (gee, I wonder why?)
Rhode Island and Dayton both looked tourney-worthy a couple of months ago, but they are seeded too low to be considered serious at-large candidates. Dayton would have to beat St. Louis and Xavier to get to the semifinals, and I don’t see that happening. URI would need victories over Charlotte and U Mass to get to the semis, and while I don’t see that happening either, they have a much better chance of getting there than the Flyers do in their part of the bracket.
Keep an eye on Coach Fran Dunphy’s Temple Owls. They flew under the radar screen all year, but they have the talent to get to the finals Saturday. They should have little trouble against LaSalle or Duquesne in the quarterfinals, and they match up well with U Mass in a probable semifinal match.
Big East @ Madison Square Garden in NYC
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#8 Villanova 19-11 vs. #9 Syracuse 19-12
#5 West Virginia 22-9 vs. #12 Providence 15-15
#7 Pittsburgh 22-9 vs. #10 Cincinnati 13-17
#6 Marquette 22-8 vs. #11 Seton Hall 17-14
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 Georgetown 25-4 vs. 8/9 winner
#4 Connecticut 24-7 vs. 5/12 winner
#2 Louisville 24-7 vs. 7/10 winner
#3 Notre Dame 24-6 vs. 6/11 winner
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
1/8/9 vs. 4/5/12
2/7/10 vs. 3/6/11
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
The Big East Tournament is always exciting, especially since the league expanded to 16 teams. By limiting the tourney to 12 teams, it usually means that eight or more teams have a realistic shot at winning the tournament.
This year, the most important game may be the opening round match between Villanova and Syracuse. The winner moves up on the bubble, while the loser can plan on playing another home game in the venerable NIT.
Another interesting opening round game will be the Marquette-Seton Hall contest. Seton Hall has not at-large hopes, but they have an ideal bracket to be the surprise team. Their path to the finals would necessitate them beating Marquette, Notre Dame, and Louisville or Pittsburgh. They would avoid Connecticut and Georgetown, the two tough physical teams they probably cannot beat.
If I had to predict a champion in this Tournament (and it would be a crapshoot pick), I would go with U Conn. The Huskies know they are in the NCAA Tournament regardless of the outcome at Madison Square Garden, but I think Jim Calhoun has his squad playing at their peak. I expect U Conn to make it to the Elite 8. A Georgetown-U Conn semifinal match will be one for the ages.
The other team to watch out for in this tournament is West Virginia. One win guarantees the Mountaineers an at-large bid, and Providence should be the necessary fodder. WVU and U Conn will make one of the most interesting quarterfinal games of any tournament.
Yes, the games at MSG should be as exciting and worthy of purchasing a ducat as any Red Sox-Yankees series up in the Bronx. Give me court-side seats, a couple of Manhattan Kosher hot dogs, and a potato knish (no egg crème needed), and I will be more than happy to attend this tournament and watch every minute of every game. Since Billy Crystal will be busy playing for the Yankees, I’ll take his seats.
At-large Teams: 7 or 8 (G’town, UL, ND, UConn, WVU, Marq., Pitt)
Bubble: Villanova, Syracuse
Big West Tournament @ Anaheim, CA
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#5 UC-Irvine 15-15 vs. #8 Long Beach State 6-24
#6 Cal Poly 12-17 vs. #7 UC-Riverside 8-20
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#3 Cal State Fullerton 21-8 vs. Lower Seed that wins on Wednesday
#4 Pacific 21-9 vs. Higher Seed that wins on Wednesday
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
#1 UC Santa Barbara 23-7 vs. lowest remaining seed
#2 Cal State Northridge 21-8 vs. highest remaining seed
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
The Big West rewards its top teams. The top two seeds receive byes to the semifinals, while teams three and four receive first round byes. In this type of seeding, the top two teams have huge advantages and almost always produce the tournament champion. I expect that to be true here. Cal State Fullerton and Pacific should win their quarterfinal games and give UCSB and CSN great semifinal games. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the Titans or Tigers make it to the finals, but not both. If only one of the top two seeds advance to the Championship Game, I expect that team to win the automatic bid over the three or four-seed. UCSB has an excellent backcourt, and it’s the better backcourts that have been winning in conference tournament play so far. I expect them to beat CS-Fullerton for the Title.
At-large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Conference USA @ Memphis
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#5 Southern Miss. 17-13 vs. #12 Rice
#8 Marshall 16-13 vs. #9 Tulane 16-14
#7 Tulsa 17-12 vs. #10 East Carolina 11-18
#6 UTEP 17-12 vs. SMU 10-19
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 Memphis 30-1 vs. 8/9 winner
#4 Central Florida 16-14 vs. 5/12 winner
#2 Ala.-Birmingham 22-9 vs. 7/10 winner
#3 Houston 22-8 vs. 6/11 winner
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
1/8/9 vs. 4/5/12
2/7/10 vs. 3/6/11
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
Back in the late 1930’s the talk every spring amongst the American League baseball teams centered on which team would finish second. It was a foregone conclusion that the Yankees would finish first by more than a dozen games. That’s what has become of CUSA basketball. Memphis is the murderer’s row of the league, and the only thing to decide is the team that will play the part of the Washington Generals to the Tigers in the Championship Game.
UAB and Houston are the co-favorites for making it to the title game. The Blazers have the easier quarterfinal game, because UTEP could give the Cougars a good run for their money. The team that loses to Memphis in the finals should be on the upper half of the bubble, while the semifinal loser should see their bubble burst.
At-large Teams: 0 or 1 (Memphis has 99.99% chance of winning automatic bid)
Bubble: Tourney Runner-up if it is Houston or UAB
Mid-American Conference @ Cleveland
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#8 Toledo 10-18 vs. #9 Bowling Green 13-16
#5 Miami (O) 15-14 vs. #12 Buffalo 10-19
#7 Eastern Michigan 13-16 vs. #10 Ball State 6-23
#6 Central Michigan 13-16 vs. #11 Northern Illinois 6-21
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 Kent State 25-6 vs. 8/9 winner
#4 Ohio U 19-11 vs. 5/12 winner
#2 Western Michigan 19-11 vs. 7/10 winner
#3 Akron 21-9 vs. 6/11 winner
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
1/8/9 vs. 4/5/12
2/7/10 vs. 3/6/11
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
It’s hard to imagine any team playing on Wednesday still playing on Friday. There was a Grand Canyon-sized difference between the top four teams and the rest of the league. If the top four teams advance to the semifinals, it should make for exciting basketball on Friday and Saturday.
Kent State has a good shot at getting into the Big Dance if they lose on Saturday. It the Flashes fall on Friday, then it gets dicey. Ohio U can knock off the top-seed, and I give the Bobcats about a 45% chance of doing so if they meet in the semis. On the other side of the bracket, I expect #3-seed Akron to survive to the final round. The Zips were massacred at Western Michigan in perhaps their worst game of the season. They will get their revenge in a probable semifinal match.
At-large Teams: 1 (Kent State)
Bubble: None
Mountain West @ Las Vegas
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#8 Wyoming 12-17 vs. Colorado State 6-24
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 BYU 25-6 vs. 8/9 winner
#4 San Diego State 19-11 vs. #5 Air Force 16-13
#2 UNLV 23-7 vs. #7 TCU 14-15
#3 New Mexico 24-7 vs. #6 Utah 16-13
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
1/8/9 vs. 4/5
2/7 vs. 3/6
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
The Mountain West Conference always puts on a good show at tournament time. Being in Vegas makes it all the more worth attending. This year, the MWC has two at-large worthy teams in BYU and UNLV. I think both are safe regardless of how they fare in the MWC Tournament. The question then is can another team win the automatic bid, allowing three teams to make it to the Dance? The answer is yes! When he was at Southwest Missouri and Iowa, Coach Steve Alford’s teams performed above their regular season level come tourney time. He won the Big 10 Tournament one season with a mediocre team. This year, he has a rather strong New Mexico team, and the Lobos are more than capable of cutting down the nets Saturday. They will have to get past the host Runnin’ Rebels to make it to the title game, but the Lobos are talented enough to do it. UNM won eight of their final nine games, with the lone loss being an overtime heartbreak against BYU.
The other possible surprise in this tournament could be San Diego State. After losing their regular season finale to the Falcons, the Aztecs should beat Air Force in the quarterfinals, and they could be primed to upset BYU in the semis. During the regular season, SDSU matched up well with the top-seeded Cougars.
At-large Teams: 2 (BYU, UNLV)
Bubble: New Mexico
Pac-10 @ The Staples Center in Los Angeles
Wednesday, March 12
Opening Round
#8 Washington 16-15 vs. #9 California 15-14
#7 Arizona 18-13 vs. #10 Oregon State 6-24
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 UCLA 28-3 vs. 8/9 winner
#4 Southern Cal 20-10 vs. #5 Arizona State 19-11
#2 Stanford 24-6 vs. 7/10 winner
#3 Washington State 23-7 vs. Oregon 18-12
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
1/8/9 vs. 4/5
2/7/10 vs. 3/6
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
There are several conference tournaments that should be quite exciting, but I expect the Pac-10 Tournament to be an all-out war with nine teams having a chance to cut down the nets. There are several intangible factors coming into play here.
Top-seed UCLA won not just one but two controversial games at Pauley Pavilion to close out the regular season. The win over Cal was as bad as a Lyndon Johnson election. The Golden Bears must get by Washington to have a rematch with the Bruins, and if that game comes about, I expect it to be one where there could be a fight if the game gets rough. It’s not a foregone conclusion that Cal will make it to the second round, as Washington is fighting for its post-season life. While the Huskies never got their formerly strong offense untracked, they showed signs of life in the second half of the Pac-10 schedule. Cal and UW split their games this season with the visiting team winning both time. It should be a great game.
The USC-Arizona State game on Thursday will be an interesting one to watch. The Trojans finished the regular season winning five of six games, and that one loss came at Arizona State. The Sun Devils need to win at least two games and maybe the tournament to get into the Dance.
With the announcement that Lute Olson plans on returning to Arizona next season dominating the headlines in Tucson, I expect the Wildcats to be distracted just enough to struggle with lifeless Oregon State in the first round and go home after losing to Stanford in the quarterfinals. I expect the Cardinal to be in the semifinals against a surprising Oregon Ducks squad. I expect Oregon, playing for Coach Ernie Kent’s job, to upset Washington State in the quarterfinals after losing to the Cougars twice in the regular season. The Ducks are on the bottom of the bubble heading to LA, and they need to win at least twice to have a realistic shot. This Duck team underachieved this year, and they have the talent to make it to Saturday.
At-large Teams: 4 or 5 (UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, Southern Cal)
Bubble: Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon
S W A C @ Birmingham
Wednesday, March 12
Quarterfinals
#1 Alabama State 19-9 vs. #8 Texas Southern 7-24
#2 Mississippi Valley 14-15 vs. #7 Grambling 7-18
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#3 Alabama A&M 14-14 vs. #6 Arkansas Pine Bluff 12-17
#4 Jackson State 12-19 vs. #5 Southern 11-18
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
Ala. St. or Tx Sou. vs. Jackson St. or Southern
Miss Vall. or Grambling vs. Ala. A&M or Ark.-OB
Saturday, March 15
Championship Game
Alabama State handily won the regular season SWAC title and became the only team to finish the year with a winning record. If they don’t win the conference tournament, this league will field possibly the weakest ever NCAA Play-in Round participant.
It’s no given that the Hornets will win the tourney. They lost at home to Alcorn State, a team that finished 7-24 and lost to Tougaloo (an NAIA team that finished fourth in its conference). #2-seed Mississippi Valley won their final six games, but they too lost to Alcorn State.
So, if this tournament is really up for grabs, like I believe it is, which dark horse team might emerge as the upset champion and advance to Dayton, Ohio, March 18th? I think Jackson State has a good chance at beating Southern in the first round and upsetting Alabama State in the semis. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see Arkansas Pine Bluff make it to the finals as well.
One caveat: The top two seeds get an a day off if they win their opening round games, and that could be just enough to get them to the title game. The SWAC would love nothing more than to see Alabama State win three games and enter the Dance at 22-9. Imagine Texas Southern winning the tournament and making it at 10-24. It isn’t that far of a stretch, as the Tigers have a history of playing much better in March. At least they took Alcorn State to overtime before losing.
At-large Teams: 0
Bubble: None
Conference Tournaments Beginning Thursday, March 13
Atlantic Coast @ Charlotte, NC
Thursday, March 13
Opening Round
#8 Wake Forest 17-12 vs. #9 Florida State 18-13
#5 Miami 21-9 vs. #12 North Carolina State 15-15
#7 Georgia Tech 14-16 vs. #10 Virginia 15-14
#6 Maryland 18-13 vs. #11 Boston College 13-16
Friday, March 14
Quarterfinals
#1 North Carolina 29-2 vs. 8/9 winner
#4 Virginia Tech 18-12 vs. 5/12 winner
#2 Duke 26-4 vs. 7/10 winner
#3 Clemson 22-8 vs. 6/11 winner
Saturday, March 15
Semifinals
1/8/9 vs. 4/5/12
2/7/10 vs. 3/6/11
Sunday, March 16
Championship Game
It’s the ACC that we owe the idea of the post-season tournament and the shot clock. This league has always fielded a post-season tournament to decide its official NCAA Tournament team, even in the days when just one team went per major conference. Because of this, some underdogs decided to try to win by stalling the ball. In the days before a shot clock, it led to boring games some years and a downright farce in another year. North Carolina State upset Duke 12-10 in the semifinals 40 years ago. They upset South Carolina in the 1970 Championship Game by stalling and winning 42-39.
Thankfully, that can no longer happen. So, what do I expect from the 2008 ACC Tournament? I don’t expect a repeat of 1976 when second to last place (4-8 in the ACC) Virginia, led by Wonderful Wally Walker, upset North Carolina State, Maryland, and North Carolina (all ranked) to win the title. None of the bottom four teams have a chance. The middle four teams have some quality talent. I especially like Miami and expect the Hurricanes to beat NC State and Virginia Tech to earn a trip to the semifinals. Once there, they would almost assuredly face North Carolina, a team they fell to by 16 points at home. I don’t think they can get to the final, but a trip to the semis will give the ‘Canes a better seeding in the Dance.
Duke can be beaten inside, but in tournament play, it almost always comes down to backcourt play. The Blue Devils should comfortably win their quarterfinal match against either Georgia Tech or Virginia. Their semifinal game would pit them against Maryland or Clemson (or Boston College if the Eagles pulled off two upsets). This year, the Terps and Tigers didn’t handle the Duke offense too well. It means there is a good possibility that the big two could face off one more time for the ACC title. If Clemson could somehow survive and make it to the Championship Game against North Carolina, that would make for terrific copy. The Tar Heels have been Clemson’s nemesis for decades, and this season may have been the worst example. UNC beat CU twice in overtime.
As for the three bubble teams, in order to have a realistic shot, it’s semifinals or bust for the Hokies, Terps, and ‘Noles.
At-large Teams: 4, 5, or 6 (UNC, Duke, Clem, Miami)
Bubble: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Florida State
Big 10 @ Indianapolis, IN
Thursday, March 13
Opening Round
#8 Iowa 13-18 vs. #9 Michigan 9-21
#7 Penn State 15-15 vs. #10 Illinois 13-18
#6 Minnesota 18-12 vs. #11 Northwestern 8-21
Friday, March 14
Quarterfinals
#1 Wisconsin 26-4 vs. 8/9 winner
#4 Michigan State 24-7 vs. #5 Ohio State 19-12
#2 Purdue 24-7 vs. 7/10 winner
#3 Indiana 25-6 vs. 6/11 winner
Saturday, March 15
Semifinals
1/8/9 vs. 4/5
2/7/10 vs. 3/6/11
Sunday, March 16
Championship Game
I’ve had the opportunity to follow the Big 10 closer this season than ever before, and I have to say I was a little disappointed. I believe I am witnessing the same thing in basketball that happened to this conference in football. Four teams have incredible muscle and finesse, but none of them have the quickness to go deep into the tourney. I’d be surprised to see more than one team make the Sweet 16, and I don’t see any Big 10 team making the Final Four or maybe the Elite Eight.
Wisconsin lost two close games to Purdue but aced the rest of the league. Indiana braved a late-season coaching change and didn’t play as well under Dan Dakich. Purdue lost two of their final five games, while Michigan State split its final 10 games. Ohio State lost six times in February. So, the Badgers have to be considered the overwhelming favorite in Indianapolis. Among the also-rans, the winner of the Penn State and Illinois game has the best chance of breaking through with a big upset and crashing into the semifinals. That would mean Purdue would be a quarterfinal victim. I’d also keep a close eye on Minnesota. If Tubby Smith’s Gophers get by Northwestern (they should win by 15-20 points), they have a decent shot against Indiana in the next round. That could conceivably lead to Minnesota playing Illinois or Penn State for a berth in the finals. If the Gophers make it to Sunday, they would then have to get by arch-rival Wisconsin for a trip to the Big Dance. I’ll stick with the Badgers to win the tournament and enter NCAA play as the league’s one true threat to advance past the Sweet 16.
At-large Teams: 4 or 5 (Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State)
Bubble: Ohio State
Big 12 @ Kansas City
Thursday, March 13
Opening Round
#8 Texas Tech 16-14 vs. #9 Oklahoma State 16-14
#5 Baylor 21-9 vs. #12 Colorado 11-19
#7 Nebraska 18-11 vs. #10 Missouri 16-15
#6 Texas A&M 22-9 vs. #11 Iowa State 14-17
Friday, March 14
Quarterfinals
#1 Texas 26-5 vs. 8/9 winner
#4 Oklahoma 21-10 vs. 5/12 winner
#2 Kansas 28-3 vs. 7/10 winner
#3 Kansas State 20-10 vs. 6/11 winner
Saturday, March 15
Semifinals
1/8/9 vs. 4/5/12
2/7/10 vs. 3/6/11
Sunday, March 16
Championship Game
No Big 12 team has appeared in the Final Four in the last four tournaments. The Big 12 placed two teams in the Final Four in both 2002 and 2003, but no league team has ever cut down the nets. Kansas won the title when they were in the Big Eight in 1988 and Big Seven in 1952. Can either drought end this year? Yes! Kansas and Texas both have the talent to make a run to the Final Four.
Kansas State is a wildcard team in this tournament. I don’t think the country’s best player, Michael Beasley, can carry the Wildcats to the Big 12 Tournament Championship, but KSU can beat any team in the league. They just cannot beat three teams in three days in my opinion.
Baylor and Texas A&M find themselves much in the same boat as Kansas State; they are both good enough to upset Kansas or Texas but not Kansas and Texas.
Oklahoma is better than Baylor and Texas A&M, and the Sooners are about on par with Kansas State. However, I don’t think OU can beat either Texas or Kansas, and they will have a tough enough time with Baylor in the quarterfinals. They might win that one, but they will exit in the semifinals against Texas.
Oklahoma State and Texas Tech will be an interesting first round match of coaches who are sons of legends. I think the offspring of Eddie Sutton will beat the offspring of Bobby Knight. As for the Cowboys, once they dispense of Tech, they just might give Texas the scare of their life; heck, they could catch the Longhorns napping and actually pull off the big upset. If that happens, OSU will be itching to exact some revenge on Oklahoma in the semis. If they make it to Sunday, and someone like Kansas State has knocked out Kansas, the ‘Pokes might be cutting down the nets. Thus, OSU is my dark horse choice if one of the big two does not win it.
At-large Teams: 4 or 5 (Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Baylor)
Bubble: Kansas State, Texas A&M
Southeastern @ Atlanta
Thursday, March 13
Opening Round
#5E South Carolina 13-17 vs. #4W LSU 13-17
#3E Vanderbilt 25-6 vs. #6W Auburn 14-15
#4E Florida 21-10 vs. #5W Alabama 16-15
#6E Georgia 13-16 vs. #3W Ole Miss 21-9
Friday, March 14
Quarterfinals
[A]: #1E Tennessee 28-3 vs. USC/LSU winner
[B]: #2W Arkansas 20-10 vs. Vand./Aub. Winner
[C]: #1W Mississippi St. 21-9 vs. Fla./Ala. Winner
[D]: #2E Kentucky 18-11 vs. Ga./OM winner
Saturday, March 15
A winner vs. B winner
C winner vs. D winner
Sunday, March 16
Championship Game
I wish the SEC would do like the rest of the basketball world and dissolve their divisions like the Big 12 and ACC do. It makes it hard to set up brackets when you have two of each numbered seed. That said, this tournament is up for grabs, and I do not expect the top-seeded Tennessee Volunteers to win it. The Vols have not fared well in the SEC Tournament during the Bruce Pearl era, and I’m not really sure he is concerned about winning it. The difference between a number one and number two seed is minimal, and his team would benefit from a few more days rest.
So, who should win the tournament? Let’s eliminate Kentucky, because they don’t have the depth, and their hot shooting is bound to come to an end.
Vanderbilt isn’t tough enough on the boards, and their only inside threat is too foul prone; also, they would have to win four games in four days, and they don’t have the mental toughness to do that.
Mississippi State has some questions in their backcourt. While their frontcourt can dominate anybody, I do not expect the Bulldogs to hide their backcourt deficiencies three consecutive days.
Arkansas has the talent to go the distance, so let’s make them one of the contenders.
Florida and Ole Miss are close to having their bubbles burst. Florida must win at least twice to have any chance, while Ole Miss must still be playing Sunday to get into the discussion. The Gators have the backcourt strength and just enough inside muscle to make a run to the title. Ole Miss should get by Georgia (if they do, I expect Bulldog Coach Dennis Felton to get the axe), and they have a decent shot against Kentucky on Friday. I think that’s as far as they can get in the tourney, if their third round opponent was Mississippi State or Florida. In the rare event that Alabama won twice, then the Rebels could make it to Sunday.
LSU was a much better team after John Brady left, and by the final weekend, the Tigers were a tough out. If they beat South Carolina in the opening round, they could be all Tennessee can handle Friday.
Auburn, South Carolina, and Alabama could all win their first game, but don’t expect to see any of them still alive on Saturday.
Georgia has mailed it in, and I’d be shocked if they play Ole Miss close in the first round.
Arkansas is my favorite to pull off the upset. Kentucky and Mississippi State have the next best chances to win, while Tennessee and Florida are the only other teams I think can win the title.
At-large Teams: 5 (Tennessee, Miss. State, Kentucky, Arkansas, Vanderbilt
Bubble: Florida, Ole Miss
Southland @ Katy, TX (near Houston)
Thursday, March 13
Quarterfinals
#1 Stephen F. Austin 25-4 vs. #8 Texas San Antonio 13-16
#4 Southeast Louisiana 17-12 vs. #5 Northwestern State 13-17
#2 Lamar 19-10 vs. #7 UT-Arlington 18-11
#3 Sam Houston State 22-7 vs. McNeese State 13-15
Friday, March 14
Semifinals
SFA/UTSA winner vs. SELA/NWST winner
Lamar/UTA winner vs. SHSY/MSU winner
Sunday, March 16
Championship Game
Until March 1st, there was a strong possibility that the Southland had a chance at putting two teams into the Field of 65. Stephen F. Austin won at Oklahoma and at San Diego earlier in the year and moved into the low 40’s in the RPI in late February. Then, the Lumberjacks lost at home to UT-Arlington, dropping them to the bottom of the bubble. While they still have an RPI in the same range as Virginia Tech and Villanova, they would only be up for at-large consideration if they lost in the Southland Tournament. One loss in the tournament would drop them 10 spots or more and out of contention, so the Lumberjacks must win the automatic bid to get into the Dance.
It’s no guarantee that SFA can waltz through this field. The Lumberjacks will have to defeat either Lamar, Sam Houston, or UT-Arlington in the Championship Game, and any one of that trio can outscore SFA.
At-large Teams: 0 or 1
Bubble: Stephen F. Austin (road wins against Oklahoma and San Diego)
The Pi-Rate Ratings 