The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 11, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 13-16, 2010

Another Great Weekend Against The Spread

 

It was nip and tuck with a couple of games, but when the dust cleared, we went 4-1 against the spread in our selections this past weekend.  That brings our record for the season to 32-14-2 for 69.6%.  As a result, we are advising our clients who have played every week to take some off the table and guarantee yourself a winning season.  We would like to believe we could continue at this pace, but being logical, 70% is uncanny for this late in the season.  Yes, we believe we have found some nice trends in the NFL and have exploited those trends, but they could change in a week.  Here is how our selections panned out.

 

1. College 10-point Sweetheart Teaser

Syracuse +17 ½ vs. South Florida, Michigan State +14 ½ vs. Michigan, and Utah +4 vs. Iowa State.

WON

Our goal with this one was to make two hot teams double digit underdogs in games where we thought they should be favored.  Syracuse and Michigan State did not disappoint, and they both pulled off upsets.  As for Utah, we liked getting points.  The Utes have quietly moved into the Top 10, and if not for TCU, they would be talked about in the BCS at-large bowl picture.

2. College 13-point Sweetheart Teaser

Missouri +1 ½ vs. Colorado, Ohio U +4 vs. Bowling Green, LSU +19 ½ vs. Florida, and California +5 ½ vs. UCLA

WON

We felt Missouri would win versus the Buffs, but we did not like the spread.  By moving them to an underdog, we were secure in our beliefs.  The same went for Ohio U and Cal.  BGU could not beat the Bobcats if they played 50 times this year.  We felt the Bears would win or lose by a field goal or less.

We are not about to say we thought LSU would win at Gainesville, but we had faith in defensive coordinator John Chavis to keep this game close. 

3. NFL 10-point Sweetheart Teaser

Baltimore +3 vs. Denver, Indianapolis +3 vs. Kansas City, and Cincinnati +3 ½ vs. Tampa Bay

WON

 We won this one by a mere half-point, but we will take it.  We’ve lost our share by that amount in the past.

 We took three teams that we thought would win close games and made them underdogs.  We hit it right on with the Ravens and Colts, and we got lucky that the Bengals only lost by three.

 4. 13-point Sweetheart Teaser

Green Bay & Washington Under 57, New York Giants & Houston Under 60 ½, San Diego & Oakland Under 57 ½, and Tennessee & Dallas Under 55

Loss

We thought that we had a good one here with teams that either lacked enough offense to hurt us or had good enough defenses to make this one work.  It worked with the first two games, but Oakland caught fire late and lost this one for us, and then Tennessee and Dallas scored three times late to pile on.

5. 13-point Sweetheart Teaser

Carolina & Chicago Over 20, St. Louis & Detroit Over 30, Atlanta & Cleveland Over 27 ½, and Tampa Bay & Cincinnati Over 25

WON

 This was the opposite approach to selection number 4.  We felt we had four games where either weak defense and/or better than advertised offense combined with a huge movement in a small totals line gave us a great advantage.  We actually thought that the only game we had to worry about here was the Rams-Lions game, and Detroit covered it all by themselves.

Time To Look At The Bowls

The college season is about half over, so it is time to start looking at the bowl possibilities.  Unlike the other places that just pick teams for each bowl, we like to look at it conference by conference and then place the teams in the bowl based on that data.  Here goes.

A C C

After starting 0-2 with a loss to James Madison, it looked like Virginia Tech was headed for a major disappointing season.  Can you remember 1995?  The Hokies lost their first two games to less than mediocre opponents and then ran the table, including a Sugar Bowl win over Texas.  Va. Tech could easily run the table once again and head to the Orange Bowl.

Florida State is their principal rival.  The Seminoles dismantled Miami Saturday night, but they have to prove they can play that way week after week.  We feel that FSU has the talent to win the Coastal Division.

North Carolina State, Georgia Tech, and Miami are good enough to pull off an upset and beat the weaker teams, but we do not feel like any of this trio can win a division flag.

North Carolina, Clemson, Boston College, and Maryland will all vie for six wins and bowl eligibility.  We feel like all four will get there, with the Tar Heels getting to seven wins.

1. BCS (Orange)—Virginia Tech

2. Chick-fil-A—Florida State

3. Champs Sports—North Carolina State

4. Sun—Miami

5. Meineke Car Care—North Carolina

6. Music City—Georgia Tech

7. Independence—Clemson

8. Eagle Bank—Maryland

Big East

This league has no dominant team, so don’t expect a 7-0 or 0-7 conference record this season.  West Virginia has the most talent, but the Mountaineers play inconsistently.  Still, we believe they have enough horses to go 6-1 and grab the league’s automatic BCS bowl berth.

We believe three teams will come up one win short—Connecticut, Pittsburgh, and Louisville.  We thought Rutgers might fall below .500 this season, but their win over UConn probably ensured them a sixth win.

South Florida and Cincinnati are not world beaters this season, but both should find a way to reach bowl eligibility.

As for the Syracuse Orangemen, their win at USF Saturday probably put them over the top.  We believe SU will contend for the league crown now, and they should win another four games.

Notre Dame is included here, because the Irish are included in the Big East Bowl Alignment.  They will get to seven wins and take one of the bids.

1. BCS (Fiesta)—West Virginia

2. Champs Sports—Syracuse

3. Meineke Car Care—Notre Dame

4. Pinstripe—Rutgers

5. PapaJohns—Cincinnati

6. St. Petersburg—South Florida

Big Ten

Ohio State occupies the top spot in the polls this week, but we feel like they will stumble at least one time before the end of the season.  Iowa appears to be the one team that can shut down the Buckeyes’ offense, and we believe the Hawkeyes can capture the conference flag.

Michigan State has to be considered in this race, but the Spartans, like Ohio State, must travel to Iowa City.

Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan should fight it out for the next three spots, while Penn State and Northwestern vie for the bottom two.  It looks to us like Purdue and Indiana will come up one win short, while Minnesota will run the table the wrong way in the conference.

Because we feel like there will be two undefeated teams from outside the automatic qualifying conferences, and we believe there will be too many one-loss teams available, we are going to call for the Big Ten to miss out on a second BCS bowl bid.

1. BCS (Rose)—Iowa

2. Capital One—Ohio State

3. Outback—Michigan State

4. Gator—Michigan

5. Insight—Wisconsin

6. Texas—Illinois

7. Dallas Football Classic—Penn State

8. Little Caesar’s Pizza—Northwestern

Big 12

Nebraska has the horses to run the table.  The Cornhuskers should take care of business with Texas this week, and their only tough opponent remaining would be Missouri.  We will call for the ‘Huskers to go 12-0 in the regular season, but we believe they will fall in the Conference Championship Game.

Oklahoma is the team we believe that will win the league’s automatic bid, but we also believe the Sooners will be upset one time in conference play.  OU has road games with Missouri, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State, and it is our opinion that they will lose one of these.

Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Texas are the best of the rest in the league.  After that, it looks like there could be five teams finishing at 6-6 (Colorado, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech).

1. BCS (Fiesta)—Oklahoma

2. BCS (Sugar)—Nebraska

3. Cotton—Missouri

4. Alamo—Texas

5. Insight—Oklahoma State

6. Holiday—Colorado

7. Texas—Texas A&M

8. Pinstripe—Baylor

9. Dallas Football Classic—Kansas State

Pac-10

Oregon is the top team in the nation today, correct?  We say, “not so fast my friends.”  If the NCAA staged a post-season tournament in the FBS division, then Oregon might be the favorite to emerge victorious.  However, this is a one-loss and you might be out of it brand of football.  In the topsy-turvy Pac-10, there are too many good offenses to give any team a great shot at going 9-0.  Thus, we pick the Ducks to stub their webbed feet at least one time.  They will end up in Pasadena.

Stanford, Cal, Arizona, and Oregon State will gain bowl eligibility, while Washington, UCLA, and Arizona State might all end up one win short.  With Southern Cal ineligible, it looks like there will be an opening for an at-large team to take a bowl bid.

1. BCS (Rose)—Oregon

2. Alamo—Stanford

3. Holiday—Arizona

4. Sun—California

5. Las Vegas—Oregon State

6. Kraft Fight Hunger—At-large team needed

SEC

 

Alabama might still be the best team in the land, but there is a chance they will never move up enough spots to play for the title.  We believe the Tide will win out and eliminate their arch-rival from the big game.   

Auburn could enter the season finale at 11-0 and be looking at a possible National Championship Game bid, but we believe they will fall to ‘Bama.

 

L S U is the luckiest undefeated team in the land, but their luck will run out a couple times.  Arkansas will win at least nine games, while the two Mississippi schools could end up 6-6 to make the enter Western Division bowl eligible.

 

The East will be lucky to send four teams to bowls, and it is a remote possibility that only two will get to six wins.  South Carolina and Florida will decide the division champion in their game in Gainesville in November.  We’ll give the edge to the Gators, and then the Gators will lose a second time to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. 

1. BCS (Sugar)—Alabama

2. BCS (Orange)—Auburn

3. Capital One—South Carolina

4. Outback—L S U

5. Cotton—Arkansas

6. Chick-fil-A—Florida

7. Gator—Georgia

8. Music City—Mississippi State

9. Liberty—Ole Miss

10. PapaJohns—Kentucky 

Mountain West 

Don’t engrave the letters T, C, and U on the conference championship trophy just yet.  Utah is also undefeated and in the top 10.  The Utes host the Frogs, and Utah has already enjoyed two undefeated seasons in the last six seasons.  The big game takes place in Salt Lake City on November 6. 

We will call the Horned Frogs the winner because we picked them to go 12-0 before the season started.

 

Utah could easily finish 11-1 and should finish at least 10-2.  Air Force has the rockets to win nine times.  San Diego State should become bowl eligible and play in a bowl for the first time in a dozen years.  BYU has a much easier schedule down the stretch, and we believe the Cougars will get their sixth win. 

Disclaimer: Because we believe TCU will get a rematch with Boise State in a BCS Bowl and because we believe the Pac-10 will not satisfy all its bowl arrangements, and because Utah will soon be a member there, we believe that an 11-1 Ute team could end up being dealt to a Pac-10 spot.   

1. BCS At-Large (NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME)—T C U

2. Las Vegas—Air Force

3. Poinsettia—Utah (See Above Disclaimer)

4. Independence—B Y U

5. Armed Forces—At-large spot to ARMY

6. New Mexico— San Diego State 

WAC 

Boise State has two tough games remaining.  By tough, we are talking about games where they may not win by three touchdowns or more.  The Broncos should run the table and finish the regular season ranked at the top in the human polls (unless some shady voters purposely vote them lower to give a BCS conference team a better chance to crack the National Championship Game). 

Nevada could be 11-0 when Boise State visits Reno on Friday night, November 26.  The Wolf Pack have a chance to play big spoiler, and if they should happen to pull off the unlikely upset and then take care of business a week later at Louisiana Tech, then who could say they don’t deserve to play in a BCS Bowl. 

Hawaii will win enough games to earn their home bowl’s bid.  Fresno State, Idaho, and Louisiana Tech should all figure in the picture.

 

1. BCS (NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME)—Boise State

2. Humanitarian—Nevada

3. New Mexico—Louisiana Tech

4. Hawaii—Hawaii

5. Kraft Fight Hunger—Fresno State 

Conference USA 

Houston lost not one but two quarterbacks against UCLA, and with that lost any chance to have a Boise State or TCU type of season.  We doubt any league team will go 8-0 in conference play, and 6-2 could be enough to win a spot in the conference championship game.

 

Central Florida, Southern Mississippi, and East Carolina all have a shot in the East, while SMU and UTEP appear to be the top contenders in the West.  Houston still has a shot even with their number three quarterback, while Tulsa still has a mathematical chance.  All seven teams should gain bowl eligibility. 

1. Liberty—Central Florida

2. Hawaii—S M U

3. Armed Forces—Tulsa

4. St. Petersburg—Southern Mississippi

5. New Orleans—Houston

6. Eagle Bank—East Carolina 

M A C 

Northern Illinois showed the rest of the league that they have returned to the top of the heap after a few years away when they clobbered Temple this past weekend.  Look for the Owls and Huskies to meet again in December, where we believe NIU will prevail yet again. 

Toledo should recover from the blowout loss at Boise State and start building up momentum.  They face Northern Illinois in Dekalb, and Huskie Stadium is the top home field advantage in the MAC.  We’ll give the edge to NIU, but we believe Toledo will gain bowl eligibility and possibly win eight games.

 

Ohio and Miami of Ohio should get to that magical seven win number, and if so, we expect both to get bowl invitations. 

1. Little Caesar’s Pizza—Northern Illinois

2. G M A C—Temple

3. Humanitarian—Miami of Ohio

4. At-Large Bowl—Ohio U 

Service Academies 

Navy is not as talented this year as in recent seasons, but the Midshipmen should find a way to win six games.  One of those may not be Army, because the Black Knights may be the better team this season.  However, Navy has a guaranteed bid if they win six times, while Army does not.  They have a provisional agreement with the Armed Forces Bowl if they have six wins prior to the Navy game, and either the MWC or CUSA is unable to supply enough bowl eligible teams for their allotted bids. 

 

1. Poinsettia Bowl—Navy

2. Armed Force Bowl—Army

 

Sunbelt 

There really is only one good team in the SBC this season.  Troy should run the table and advance to the New Orleans Bowl.  As for the runner-up spot, it could come from Middle Tennessee, Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, or even Louisiana Monroe.  Don’t expect a third team to emerge with bowl eligibility. 

1. New Orleans—Troy

2. G M A C—Middle Tennessee 

The PiRate Ratings 

We get e-mails from many of you, especially those who purchase our selections (www.piratings.webs.com) asking how we could rank a two-loss team ahead of an undefeated team, maybe even one that beat the two-loss team. 

Remember this:  The PiRate Ratings are not rankings and not a poll.  They are predictive in nature and always look forward and not backward.  LSU beat Florida in Gainesville, but the Gators stay 1.1 points ahead of the Tigers.  That is because we believe that if the two played again this weekend in Gainesville, Florida would win by 1.1 points plus the home field advantage we assigned for that game (plus or minus certain intangibles that we use that could actually move the predicted spread by as much as two touchdowns in either direction). 

NCAA Top 25 October 4, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Oregon 130.5 6 0
2 Alabama 129.5 5 1
3 Boise State 128.7 5 0
4 T C U 127.3 6 0
5 Florida State 125.7 5 1
6 South Carolina 125.5 4 1
7 Arkansas 125.3 4 1
8 Oklahoma 124.4 5 0
9 Ohio State 124.3 6 0
10 Nebraska 123.0 5 0
11 Stanford 122.0 5 1
12 Iowa 121.6 4 1
13 Auburn 119.0 6 0
14 Virginia Tech 118.9 4 2
15 Miami (Fla) 118.5 3 2
16 California 117.5 3 2
17 Florida 117.3 4 2
18 Arizona 116.7 4 1
19 North Carolina 116.6 3 2
20 L S U 116.2 6 0
21 Texas 116.0 3 2
22 Utah 115.8 5 0
23 Texas A&M 115.0 3 2
24 Wisconsin 114.6 5 1
25 Georgia Tech 114.6 4 2
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 3-0 5-1 125.7
Clemson 0-2 2-3 113.2
North Carolina State 2-1 5-1 106.7
Boston College 0-2 2-3 102.0
Wake Forest 1-2 2-4 100.3
Maryland 1-0 4-1 95.4
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 2-0 4-2 118.9
Miami-FL 1-1 3-2 118.5
North Carolina 1-1 3-2 116.6
Georgia Tech 3-1 4-2 114.6
Virginia 0-2 2-3 95.9
Duke 0-2 1-4 91.0

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 0-0 4-1 113.9
Cincinnati 0-0 2-3 110.0
Connecticut 0-1 3-3 107.5
Pittsburgh 0-0 2-3 107.4
South Florida 0-1 3-2 102.6
Syracuse 1-0 4-1 101.2
Louisville 0-0 3-2 98.3
Rutgers 1-0 3-2 94.3

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 2-0 6-0 124.3
Iowa 1-0 4-1 121.6
Wisconsin 1-1 5-1 114.6
Michigan State 2-0 6-0 114.0
Michigan 1-1 5-1 107.4
Illinois 1-1 3-2 104.1
Penn State 0-2 3-3 103.5
Northwestern 1-1 5-1 96.1
Purdue 1-0 3-2 95.4
Minnesota 0-2 1-5 94.6
Indiana 0-2 3-2 92.6

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 1-0 5-0 123.0
Missouri 1-0 5-0 113.9
Colorado 0-1 3-2 102.6
Kansas State 1-1 4-1 95.6
Kansas 0-1 2-3 95.0
Iowa State 1-1 3-3 94.9
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 1-0 5-0 124.4
Texas 1-1 3-2 116.0
Texas A&M 0-1 3-2 115.0
Texas Tech 1-2 3-2 107.6
Baylor 1-1 4-2 106.3
Oklahoma State 1-0 5-0 105.6

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 1-0 3-2 99.0
Southern Mississippi 1-1 4-2 95.0
East Carolina 3-0 3-2 92.7
U A B 0-2 1-4 85.7
Marshall 0-1 1-4 84.8
Memphis 0-3 1-5 71.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 2-0 3-2 99.3
S M U 3-0 4-2 97.1
Tulsa 1-2 3-3 93.2
U T E P 2-1 5-1 87.4
Rice 0-2 1-5 82.6
Tulane 0-1 2-3 76.0

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   3-3 111.2
Navy   3-2 100.0
Army   4-2 88.5

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 1-1 4-2 92.7
Miami (O) 2-0 3-3 86.5
Ohio U 2-1 3-3 86.1
Kent St. 1-1 2-3 85.5
Buffalo 1-0 2-3 82.5
Bowling Green 0-2 1-5 76.2
Akron 0-2 0-6 71.3
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 2-0 4-2 95.9
Central Michigan 1-2 2-4 87.7
Toledo 2-0 3-3 84.6
Western Michigan 1-1 2-3 78.4
Ball State 1-1 2-4 77.8
Eastern Michigan 0-3 0-6 67.6

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 2-0 6-0 127.3
Utah 2-0 5-0 115.8
Air Force 3-0 5-1 106.7
S. D. State 0-1 3-2 99.2
B Y U 1-1 2-4 97.3
Wyoming 0-2 2-4 91.9
UNLV 1-1 1-5 89.4
Colo. State 0-2 1-5 84.2
New Mexico 0-2 0-6 73.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 3-0 6-0 130.5
Stanford 2-1 5-1 122.0
California 1-1 3-2 117.5
Arizona 1-1 4-1 116.7
Oregon St. 2-0 3-2 113.7
Southern Cal 1-2 4-2 112.0
Washington 1-1 2-3 109.6
U C L A 1-2 3-3 107.2
Arizona St. 1-2 3-3 107.0
Wash. St. 0-3 1-5 90.0

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 2-1 4-1 125.5
Florida 2-2 4-2 117.3
Georgia 1-3 2-4 110.5
Kentucky 0-3 3-3 103.3
Tennessee 0-3 2-4 98.9
Vanderbilt 1-1 2-3 98.1
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 2-1 5-1 129.5
Arkansas 1-1 4-1 125.3
Auburn 3-0 6-0 119.0
L S U 4-0 6-0 116.2
Mississippi State 1-2 4-2 113.7
Ole Miss 1-1 3-2 102.9

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 2-0 3-2 91.9
Middle Tennessee 1-1 2-3 83.3
Florida International 1-0 1-4 81.9
Arkansas State 2-2 2-4 80.1
U. of Louisiana 2-1 2-3 79.9
North Texas 1-2 1-5 79.5
Florida Atlantic 0-2 1-4 78.5
Louisiana-Monroe 1-1 2-3 75.4
Western Kentucky 0-1 0-5 73.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 1-0 5-0 128.7
Nevada 1-0 6-0 109.5
Fresno State 1-1 3-2 96.6
Utah State 0-2 2-4 94.5
Idaho 0-0 3-2 93.4
Hawaii 2-0 4-2 95.0
Louisiana Tech 1-1 2-4 93.0
San Jose State 0-1 1-5 79.6
New Mexico State 0-1 1-4 72.3

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Wednesday, October 13      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Central Florida MARSHALL 11.2 31-20
       
Thursday, October 14      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
WEST VIRGINIA South Florida 14.8 35-20
KANSAS Kansas State 1.9 19-17
       
Friday, October 15      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Cincinnati LOUISVILLE 9.2 30-21
       
Saturday, October 16      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Arkansas AUBURN 3.3 34-31
Baylor COLORADO 0.7 31-30
FLORIDA STATE Boston College 27.7 41-13
FLORIDA Mississippi State 7.1 27-20
GEORGIA TECH Middle Tennessee 34.8 56-21
GEORGIA Vanderbilt 15.9 26-10
INDIANA Arkansas State 15.5 34-18
South Carolina KENTUCKY 19.2 40-21
WESTERN KENTUCKY Louisiana-Monroe 0.8 26-25
MICHIGAN STATE Illinois 12.9 33-20
Miami (Fl) DUKE 25.0 45-20
North Carolina St. EAST CAROLINA 11.5 42-30
NEBRASKA Texas 11.0 21-10
RUTGERS Army 8.8 27-18
Pittsburgh SYRACUSE 3.2 20-17
OKLAHOMA Iowa State 33.0 45-12
CLEMSON Maryland 20.8 35-14
Southern Miss MEMPHIS 20.6 35-14
TEXAS A&M Missouri 4.6 35-30
NORTH TEXAS Florida Int’l 0.1 27-27 to ot
North Carolina VIRGINIA 17.7 31-13
VIRGINIA TECH Wake Forest 21.6 35-13
Oregon State WASHINGTON 1.1 28-27
Arizona WASHINGTON STATE 23.7 34-10
ALABAMA Ole Miss 30.1 37-7
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Miami (O) 4.2 31-27
PURDUE Minnesota 3.8 28-24
TEXAS TECH Oklahoma State 5.0 38-33
TROY Louisiana-Lafayette 15.0 42-27
TEMPLE Bowling Green 19.5 38-18
BALL STATE Eastern Michigan 12.7 33-20
OHIO U Akron 17.3 27-10
U  n  l  v COLORADO STATE 2.2 28-26
NOTRE DAME Western Michigan 36.3 49-13
California SOUTHERN CAL 2.0 30-28
Iowa MICHIGAN 11.2 21-10
Houston RICE 14.7 38-23
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Buffalo 16.4 30-14
NAVY S  m  u 5.9 34-28
U  A  B U  t  e  p 1.3 31-30
LOUISIANA TECH Idaho 2.6 24-21
T  C  U B  y  u 33.0 45-12
Utah WYOMING 20.9 45-24
TULSA Tulane 20.2 34-14
Ohio State WISCONSIN 6.7 31-24
TOLEDO Kent State 1.6 30-28
Boise State SAN JOSE STATE 46.6 56-10
Air Force SAN DIEGO STATE 4.5 31-26
FRESNO STATE New Mexico State 27.3 40-13
Nevada HAWAII 10.5 38-27

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings
       
Wednesday, October 13      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Central Florida MARSHALL 30-21 35-14
       
Thursday, October 14      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
WEST VIRGINIA South Florida 28-16 27-20
Kansas State KANSAS 19-14 21-12
       
Friday, October 15      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Cincinnati LOUISVILLE 27-24 28-22
       
Saturday, October 16      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
AUBURN Arkansas 34-31 34-30
Baylor COLORADO 28-27 27-24
FLORIDA STATE Boston College 34-12 41-17
FLORIDA Mississippi State 27-17 27-20
GEORGIA TECH Middle Tennessee 38-19 49-16
GEORGIA Vanderbilt 27-17 35-13
INDIANA Arkansas State 35-24 38-17
South Carolina KENTUCKY 30-20 31-24
WESTERN KENTUCKY Louisiana-Monroe 25-24 23-27
MICHIGAN STATE Illinois 23-14 24-17
Miami (Fl) DUKE 34-17 38-14
North Carolina St. EAST CAROLINA 30-21 34-27
NEBRASKA Texas 27-14 27-10
RUTGERS Army 28-24 24-17
Pittsburgh SYRACUSE 24-22 17-20
OKLAHOMA Iowa State 31-12 31-10
CLEMSON Maryland 26-17 24-19
Southern Miss MEMPHIS 38-23 45-13
Missouri TEXAS A&M 29-28 32-27
Florida Int’l NORTH TEXAS 27-25 28-23
North Carolina VIRGINIA 23-17 24-10
VIRGINIA TECH Wake Forest 33-10 30-9
Oregon State WASHINGTON 28-24 31-20
Arizona WASHINGTON STATE 41-20 44-20
ALABAMA Ole Miss 35-12 34-10
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Miami (O) 33-24 30-27
PURDUE Minnesota 28-21 28-20
Oklahoma State TEXAS TECH 34-31 34-27
TROY Louisiana-Lafayette 41-24 41-24
TEMPLE Bowling Green 28-12 28-12
BALL STATE Eastern Michigan 28-14 21-14
OHIO U Akron 34-12 24-14
COLORADO STATE U  n  l  v 28-27 27-25
NOTRE DAME Western Michigan 38-21 41-13
SOUTHERN CAL California 34-34 to ot 34-35
Iowa MICHIGAN 23-17 20-16
Houston RICE 38-27 38-33
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Buffalo 33-21 32-20
NAVY S  m  u 31-27 31-35
U  A  B U  t  e  p 31-30 27-41
Idaho LOUISIANA TECH 24-21 17-24
T  C  U B  y  u 35-10 35-7
Utah WYOMING 42-24 45-17
TULSA Tulane 35-19 38-17
Ohio State WISCONSIN 24-16 24-17
TOLEDO Kent State 31-23 38-24
Boise State SAN JOSE STATE 45-13 63-14
Air Force SAN DIEGO STATE 31-27 34-24
FRESNO STATE New Mexico State 35-10 44-14
Nevada HAWAII 41-33 42-37

 

 

 

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October 4, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 5-9, 2010

PiRate Rating Selections Go 4-3 against the spread.

 

It was our worst week of the season, but at least we turned a small profit to those who chose to purchase our picks last week.  This is the last week you can purchase the rest of the season in one package.  After this week, you may only buy our weekly picks.  There will be a bowl season/NFL Playoffs opportunity available in Mid-December.

 

For the season, our picks are now 28-13-2 for 68.3% against the spread.  As you will see, we lost our three college selections, but we aced the NFL picks.  This has continued to be our trend, as our NFL picks are red hot.  We are 12-4-0 with our NFL picks and 16-9-2 with our college selections.  We will continue to monitor this, and if our NFL picks continue to top 70%, we may rely close to 100% on selecting those games.  Go to www.piratings.webs.com to purchase our selections.

 

Not the Most Important Week, But…

 

This will be one of the most interesting weeks in the college football season with several trap games as well as key games in the conference races.  Let’s take a look conference-by-conference with some of the big games.

 

ACC

Neither team will figure in the national championship picture, but Miami and Florida State hook up in a game that should determine at least one of the division races.  Should the Seminoles win, they should cruise to the Atlantic Division title.  FSU would still be the favorite in the Atlantic with a loss.

 

Miami needs this game to win the Coastal Division title.  Virginia Tech may beat every other ACC opponent, and even if the Hurricanes pinned a loss on the Hokies, The “U” could lose at Georgia Tech and finish 6-2 in the league if they lose to the ‘Noles.

 

Big East

There is only one important game in league play, but for bowl purposes, there are actually two.

 

South Florida hosts improved Syracuse this week, and if the Orangemen could spring the upset, it could make the conference race look like 2007 when seven of the eight teams had a chance to win the championship.  USF has been hot and cold, so this game should be interesting.

 

Pittsburgh plays at Notre Dame.  If the Irish win, they will move up in the bowl hierarchy.  Notre Dame can steal a Big East bowl bid as part of the bowl alliances. 

 

Big Ten

This is going to be a fantastic race.  We have looked at the contending teams’ strengths and weaknesses, and we honestly cannot find one team that looks head and heels better than the others.  Thus, we could see 6-2 getting a piece of the league crown and 7-1 winning it outright.  No 7-1 Big Ten team will jump over an undefeated Boise State or TCU team.

 

The big game takes place at the Big House where undefeated rivals Michigan and Michigan State square off.  Expect yet another exciting game, as these games have been great matchups in recent seasons.  Two of the past five games have been decided in overtime, while one other was decided by four points. 

 

Ohio State should have little trouble with Indiana, but don’t expect a 28-point win.  If the Hoosiers make this game close, then the seven point Michigan win at Bloomington will mean something.

 

Iowa is off this week, and this gives the Hawkeyes an extra week to prepare for the Wolverines.

 

Wisconsin is not out of the race yet, but the Badgers have a tough road to climb.  They entertain Minnesota and should retain Paul Bunyan’s Axe.  Speaking of axes, that is what Gopher coach Tim Brewster is going to receive before the end of the season.

 

Sitting pretty at 5-0, Northwestern should defeat Purdue to move to 6-0 for the first time since Ara Parseghian led the Wildcats to a 6-0 start in 1962.  Of course, that Wildcat team moved to number one in the AP Poll following the 6-0 start.

 

Big 12

Undefeated Nebraska is travelling to the Little Apple for a tough trap game Thursday night against Kansas State.  Coach Bill Snyder has KSU 4-0 for the first time since 2003.  We believe the Cornhuskers are a bit overrated and ripe for the upset, but we think Coach Bo Pelini’s troops will find a way to win a low-scoring game.

 

A couple of other games will provide clues as to which teams will go bowling and which will not.  Texas Tech faces Baylor at the Cotton Bowl, and the lose will be in trouble.  Baylor is 4-1.  The Bears were 4-1 in 2005 and gave Nebraska and Oklahoma great battles the next two weeks but lost both.  The last time the Bears were 5-1 was 1994, which is also the last season they played in a bowl game.

 

Missouri hosts Colorado.  The Tigers may have enough talent to challenge Nebraska for the North Division title, but they have some tough games facing them prior to playing the Cornhuskers.  The Buffaloes need three more wins to become bowl eligible, and we believe they will get them with one more for good measure.  If CU can pull off the upset, the Buffs could have an outside shot at still being in contention in the North when they face Nebraska in Lincoln on the Friday after Thanksgiving.

 

Pac-10

Oregon benefits big time this week.  The Ducks, ripe for a big bounce, face hapless Washington State. 

 

Stanford must play Southern Cal, and the Trojans will give the Cardinal their best after the embarrassment Stanford handed them last year.  Expect a game with a lot of 15-yard personal foul penalties, and we would not be surprised if there was a fight at some point.

 

Arizona should handle Oregon State to remain undefeated.  The Wildcats should be 7-0 when they travel to Pasadena to face UCLA on October 30.

 

The Bruins face Cal in Berkeley this week.  The winner can go ahead and make bowl plans, while fans of the loser will start to panic a little.

 

SEC

This is the biggest trap game of the week.  Top-ranked Alabama faces its third tough opponent in as many weeks.  They must go on the road to face Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina Gamecocks.  USC had a week off, and Coach Superior has had two weeks to prepare for this game.  Expect one that is up for grabs in the final minutes.

 

Florida hosts LSU in a trap game.  The Gators should handle the Tigers, but if they come out a lay an egg, Les Miles’ squad could become a very lucky 6-0.

 

Coach Derrick Dooley takes his Tennessee Volunteers between the Hedges to face the team that made his father a legend.  Georgia is 1-4, and if they lose to the 2-3 Vols, Coach Mark Richt’s fate may be sealed if it isn’t already.

 

Auburn visits Kentucky.  The Wildcats are not as talented as the Tigers and should give up 35-45 points, but we believe this could be an interesting game.

 

TCU/Boise State

TCU hosts Wyoming, and even though the Cowboys played the Horned Frogs close for 25 minutes last year, we see a four touchdown or greater victory.

 

Boise State hosts Toledo.  The Broncos won 59-0 over New Mexico State and fell one spot in the polls, and this may force Chris Petersen to go for the jugular against teams that have no chance.  The Broncos have the potential to score 70 or more points in this game.

 

Let’s take a look at the PiRate Top 25, the ratings for all 120 FBS teams, and the computer spreads for our three rating systems:

 

NCAA Top 25 October 4, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Alabama 132.5 5 0
2 Oregon 132.0 5 0
3 Boise State 128.2 4 0
4 Arkansas 125.1 3 1
5 T C U 124.9 5 0
6 Oklahoma 124.4 5 0
7 Ohio State 124.0 5 0
8 Stanford 123.0 4 1
9 Miami (Fla) 122.5 3 1
10 Iowa 121.6 4 1
11 Florida State 121.2 4 1
12 South Carolina 121.0 3 1
13 Nebraska 120.8 4 0
14 Florida 119.3 4 1
15 Auburn 119.3 5 0
16 Virginia Tech 118.9 3 2
17 Arizona 118.0 4 0
18 North Carolina 116.3 2 2
19 Texas 116.0 3 2
20 California 115.0 2 2
21 Texas A&M 115.0 3 1
22 L S U 114.5 5 0
23 Wisconsin 114.3 4 1
24 Georgia Tech 114.3 3 2
25 Clemson 113.2 2 2
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 2-0 4-1 121.2
Clemson 0-1 2-2 113.2
North Carolina State 1-1 4-1 105.2
Boston College 0-1 2-2 104.6
Wake Forest 1-2 2-3 100.8
Maryland 1-0 4-1 95.4
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Miami-FL 1-0 3-1 122.5
Virginia Tech 2-0 3-2 118.9
North Carolina 0-1 2-2 116.3
Georgia Tech 2-1 3-2 114.3
Virginia 0-1 2-2 95.9
Duke 0-2 1-4 91.0

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 0-0 3-1 111.7
Connecticut 0-0 3-2 109.1
Pittsburgh 0-0 2-2 107.4
Cincinnati 0-0 1-3 107.0
South Florida 0-0 3-1 103.6
Syracuse 0-0 3-1 99.8
Louisville 0-0 2-2 94.8
Rutgers 0-0 2-2 92.7

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 1-0 5-0 124.0
Iowa 1-0 4-1 121.6
Wisconsin 0-1 4-1 114.3
Michigan State 1-0 5-0 110.5
Michigan 1-0 5-0 110.1
Penn State 0-1 3-2 108.0
Illinois 0-1 2-2 100.6
Northwestern 1-0 5-0 97.4
Minnesota 0-1 1-4 94.9
Purdue 0-0 2-2 94.6
Indiana 0-1 3-1 92.9

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 0-0 4-0 120.8
Missouri 0-0 4-0 112.3
Colorado 0-0 3-1 104.3
Iowa State 1-1 3-2 98.4
Kansas State 1-0 4-0 97.8
Kansas 0-1 2-3 95.0
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 1-0 5-0 124.4
Texas 1-1 3-2 116.0
Texas A&M 0-1 3-1 115.0
Baylor 1-0 4-1 107.0
Texas Tech 0-2 2-2 106.9
Oklahoma State 1-0 4-0 104.9

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Southern Mississippi 1-0 4-1 95.6
Central Florida 0-0 2-2 95.2
East Carolina 2-0 2-2 91.6
U A B 0-1 1-3 89.5
Marshall 0-1 1-4 84.8
Memphis 0-3 1-4 76.4
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 2-0 3-1 102.9
S M U 2-0 3-2 97.1
Tulsa 1-1 3-2 92.9
Rice 0-1 1-4 85.2
U T E P 1-1 4-1 84.3
Tulane 0-1 2-2 77.6

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   2-3 111.0
Navy   2-2 99.5
Army   3-2 86.4

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 1-0 4-1 94.2
Miami (O) 2-0 3-2 89.0
Kent St. 0-1 1-3 85.5
Ohio U 1-1 2-3 83.4
Buffalo 1-0 2-3 82.5
Bowling Green 0-1 1-4 78.6
Akron 0-1 0-5 71.0
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 1-0 3-2 94.1
Central Michigan 1-2 2-3 87.5
Toledo 2-0 3-2 85.1
Ball State 1-0 2-3 82.8
Western Michigan 0-1 1-3 75.4
Eastern Michigan 0-3 0-5 70.4

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 1-0 5-0 124.9
Utah 2-0 4-0 111.3
Air Force 2-0 4-1 105.7
S. D. State 0-0 3-1 99.9
B Y U 0-1 1-4 96.6
Wyoming 0-1 2-3 94.0
UNLV 1-1 1-4 92.4
Colo. State 0-1 1-4 85.2
New Mexico 0-2 0-5 73.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 2-0 5-0 132.0
Stanford 1-1 4-1 123.0
Arizona 1-0 4-0 118.0
California 0-1 2-2 115.0
Washington 1-0 2-2 113.1
Oregon St. 1-0 2-2 112.1
Southern Cal 1-1 4-1 111.0
U C L A 1-1 3-2 109.8
Arizona St. 0-2 2-3 103.5
Wash. St. 0-2 1-4 88.2

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 1-1 3-1 121.0
Florida 2-1 4-1 119.3
Georgia 0-3 1-4 108.7
Kentucky 0-2 3-2 102.3
Tennessee 0-2 2-3 101.0
Vanderbilt 1-1 1-3 95.8
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 2-0 5-0 132.5
Arkansas 1-1 3-1 125.1
Auburn 2-0 5-0 119.3
L S U 3-0 5-0 114.5
Mississippi State 1-2 3-2 111.6
Ole Miss 1-1 3-2 102.9

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Middle Tennessee 1-0 2-2 87.8
Troy 1-0 2-2 87.4
Florida International 0-0 0-4 81.6
North Texas 1-1 1-4 81.3
U. of Louisiana 2-1 2-2 80.6
Florida Atlantic 0-1 1-3 79.5
Arkansas State 1-2 1-4 78.8
Louisiana-Monroe 0-1 1-3 74.4
Western Kentucky 0-0 0-4 73.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 1-0 4-0 128.2
Nevada 0-0 5-0 110.5
Fresno State 1-0 3-1 100.6
Utah State 0-1 2-3 97.8
Idaho 0-0 3-2 93.4
Hawaii 1-0 3-2 90.5
Louisiana Tech 0-1 1-4 90.0
San Jose State 0-0 1-4 78.6
New Mexico State 0-1 0-4 72.3

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
Tuesday, October 5      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Troy 3.4 34-31
       
Wednesday, October 6      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
CENTRAL FLORIDA U  a  b 8.7 33-24
       
Thursday, October 7      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Nebraska KANSAS STATE 20.0 27-7
       
Friday, October 8      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Connecticut RUTGERS 13.4 30-17
Oklahoma State LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 21.3 42-21
       
Saturday, October 2      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
ARIZONA Oregon State 8.9 26-17
CALIFORNIA U  c  l  a 8.2 31-23
FLORIDA L  s  u 8.3 21-13
SOUTH FLORIDA Syracuse 7.3 24-17
GEORGIA TECH Virginia 21.4 38-17
GEORGIA Tennessee 10.7 27-16
Utah IOWA STATE 8.9 27-18
Auburn KENTUCKY 14.0 38-24
LOUISVILLE Memphis 21.4 31-10
MICHIGAN Michigan State 2.6 34-31
MISSOURI Colorado 11.0 24-13
NORTH CAROLINA ST. Boston College 3.6 21-17
NORTH CAROLINA Clemson 6.1 27-21
WAKE FOREST Navy 4.3 24-20
OHIO STATE Indiana 34.6 52-17
PENN STATE Illinois 10.9 21-10
VANDERBILT Eastern Michigan 28.4 35-7
Arkansas  (Cowboys Stad) Texas A&M 9.1 35-26
NORTH TEXAS Arkansas State 5.0 35-30
WASHINGTON Arizona State 13.1 34-21
Oregon WASHINGTON STATE 40.8 48-7
WISCONSIN Minnesota 22.4 42-20
BALL STATE Western Michigan 9.9 31-21
CINCINNATI Miami (O) 20.5 35-14
FLORIDA INT’L Western Kentucky 10.9 31-20
MIAMI (FL) Florida State 3.8 28-24
NEVADA San Jose State 34.9 49-14
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Temple 2.9 24-21
Alabama SOUTH CAROLINA 8.5 25-16
Baylor (Cotton Bowl) Texas Tech 0.1 27-27 to ot
VIRGINIA TECH Central Michigan 35.4 41-6
OHIO U Bowling Green 7.3 24-17
AIR FORCE Colorado State 23.0 35-12
WEST VIRGINIA U  n  l  v 23.3 33-10
KENT STATE Akron 17.0 27-10
Army TULANE 6.3 23-17
NOTRE DAME Pittsburgh 6.6 24-17
T  C  U Wyoming 34.4 41-7
Utah State LOUISIANA TECH 4.5 28-23
San Diego State B  Y  U 0.3 28-28 to ot
Florida Atlantic LOUISIANA-MONROE 2.6 30-27
NORTHWESTERN Purdue 5.8 27-21
SOUTHERN MISS East Carolina 7.0 30-23
STANFORD Southern Cal 15.0 35-20
BOISE STATE Toledo 47.1 61-14
Mississippi State HOUSTON 5.7 34-28
S  M  U Tulsa 7.2 38-31
NEW MEXICO STATE New Mexico 1.4 24-23
U  T  E  P Rice 1.6 34-32
FRESNO STATE Hawaii 13.1 37-24

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings
Tuesday, October 5      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Troy 35-30 30-28
       
Wednesday, October 6      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
CENTRAL FLORIDA U  a  b 30-21 27-20
       
Thursday, October 7      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Nebraska KANSAS STATE 28-10 20-10
       
Friday, October 8      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Connecticut RUTGERS 27-24 31-17
Oklahoma State LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 38-17 38-17
       
Saturday, October 2      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
ARIZONA Oregon State 21-17 24-14
CALIFORNIA U  c  l  a 28-24 27-21
FLORIDA L  s  u 21-13 34-13
SOUTH FLORIDA Syracuse 30-20 26-14
GEORGIA TECH Virginia 33-21 30-20
GEORGIA Tennessee 21-16 26-20
Utah IOWA STATE 24-17 26-23
Auburn KENTUCKY 34-27 41-20
LOUISVILLE Memphis 31-14 31-13
MICHIGAN Michigan State 38-34 38-34
MISSOURI Colorado 35-27 35-27
NORTH CAROLINA ST. Boston College 27-17 27-17
NORTH CAROLINA Clemson 23-17 24-21
Navy WAKE FOREST 28-27 28-24
OHIO STATE Indiana 48-19 37-20
PENN STATE Illinois 24-10 20-10
VANDERBILT Eastern Michigan 34-7 34-14
Arkansas  (Cowboys Stad) Texas A&M 40-27 41-24
Arkansas State NORTH TEXAS 31-30 31-34
WASHINGTON Arizona State 35-30 35-26
Oregon WASHINGTON STATE 56-12 56-10
WISCONSIN Minnesota 33-21 35-20
BALL STATE Western Michigan 30-17 24-23
CINCINNATI Miami (O) 34-14 27-17
FLORIDA INT’L Western Kentucky 25-17 26-17
MIAMI (FL) Florida State 27-20 24-20
NEVADA San Jose State 49-16 48-14
Temple NORTHERN ILLINOIS 27-23 20-21
Alabama SOUTH CAROLINA 26-10 26-13
Texas Tech (Cotton Bowl) Baylor 28-26 27-34
VIRGINIA TECH Central Michigan 31-6 35-0
OHIO U Bowling Green 24-17 28-17
AIR FORCE Colorado State 37-10 27-12
WEST VIRGINIA U  n  l  v 35-14 37-14
KENT STATE Akron 30-17 27-20
Army TULANE 24-17 16-19
NOTRE DAME Pittsburgh 24-19 23-17
T  C  U Wyoming 37-7 26-7
Utah State LOUISIANA TECH 28-27 24-28
B  Y  U San Diego State 28-24 21-31
Florida Atlantic LOUISIANA-MONROE 24-24 to ot 27-17
NORTHWESTERN Purdue 31-20 29-20
SOUTHERN MISS East Carolina 30-23 28-23
STANFORD Southern Cal 40-27 44-27
BOISE STATE Toledo 45-10 55-13
Mississippi State HOUSTON 30-21 26-20
S  M  U Tulsa 41-33 42-34
NEW MEXICO STATE New Mexico 24-24 to ot 27-24
U  T  E  P Rice 38-33 38-30
FRESNO STATE Hawaii 40-31 38-35

 

September 27, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: September 30-October 2, 2010

Sometimes, you are lucky, and sometimes you are not.  It usually balances out.  We had our share of both good luck and bad luck this past weekend, and it balanced out.  Our selections against the spread continued to find success, as we returned a good profit to those of you who chose to utilize our services.  We chose only underdog selections this week, and it was a winning proposition.  Our record was 6-2-1, which brings our record to date to 24-10-2 (70.6% against the spread).

 

Here is the breakdown:

1. SMU +17 vs. TCU

Tie

This was one of those bad luck instances.  The Mustangs stayed with their Metroplex rival for most of the night and only a late TCU surge caused this one to end in a push.

 

2. Rutgers +12 vs. North Carolina

WON

We acknowledged that the Tar Heels should win the game, but we loved an undefeated home team playing a winless road team and getting double-digit points.

 

3. 10-point Teaser: Northwestern +3 ½ vs. Central Michigan, UCLA +25 ½ vs. Texas, and Virginia Tech +6 vs. Boston College

WON

We felt that Northwestern would win their game but were not confident enough to take the Wildcats as a 6 ½-point pick.  We did not pick UCLA to pull off the upset, but we felt like Texas would have a difficult time scoring 26 points and took the Bruins.  We mentioned that Virginia Tech looked like a solid pick at -4, but since we were playing all underdogs, we took the Hokies in this teaser.

 

4. Cleveland +10 ½ vs. Baltimore

WON

Our reasoning here was some doubt about Joe Flacco and the Ravens’ tendency to play it too close to the vest.  Also, the Browns have been keeping games close this year, and we look to possibly use them in additional selections until they prove unworthy.

 

5. Detroit +13 vs. Minnesota

Loss

Here is another bad luck game for us.  The Lions were driving for a score as time ran out.  We missed this one by one lousy point, but Detroit had no reason to kick a field goal down by 14 in the final two minutes.

 

6. Kansas City +3 vs. San Francisco

WON

Again, we had an undefeated home ‘dog against a winless road favorite.  The 49ers are overhyped every year, and they continue to fail to live up to those lofty standards.  They trail the Rams now.

 

7. 10-point teaser: Buffalo +24 ½ vs. New England, Cleveland +20 ½ vs. Baltimore, and Pittsburgh +8 ½ vs. Tampa Bay

WON

We felt that the Patriots could not blow the Bills off the field, but we did not see Buffalo threatening to win this game.  We were happy with an 8-point game.  What we thought about the Browns at +10 ½ went double for this teaser pick.  We felt Pittsburgh would cover the regular spread against a vastly overrated Bucs team, so we loved getting more than a touchdown.

 

8. 10-point teaser: New York Giants +7 ½ vs. Tennessee, Kansas City +13 vs. San Francisco, and Detroit +21 vs. Minnesota

Loss

We thought we were safe taking the Giants at home and getting more than a touchdown, but stupidity cost them big time.  They outgained the Titans by 200 yards and still were blown out!  We hit the rest of the parlay, but it did not matter.

 

9. Moneyline Parlay at -118: New England over Buffalo, Baltimore over Cleveland, and Indianapolis over Denver

WON

This was sort of an insurance policy.  If the Patriots and Ravens won by too many points, at least we would win this game.  We were fortunate to win this one in addition to the other selections

 

It counts for nothing, but if you read this blog last week, we told you that we thought two Big Ten teams would be upset and were correct in picking Purdue and Minnesota to lose to their MAC guests.  We do not see Tim Brewster keeping his job in Minneapolis after this season, and Danny Hope is beginning to tread in deep water in West Lafayette.  With somebody like Brady Hoke at San Diego State and his ties to the Midwest, or even the availability of Mike Leach, the Gophers have options.  Glen Mason’s 38-25 record in his last five years doesn’t look so bad now, does it Minny fans?

 

NCAA Playoffs

 

You say you want an NCAA playoff in the FBS division?  Okay, you’ve got one.  Think of this Saturday as an Elite Eight weekend.  Look at the matchups:

 

1. Alabama vs. Florida

2. Oregon vs. Stanford

3. Ohio State vs. Illinois, Michigan vs. Indiana, and Wisconsin vs. Michigan State

4. Oklahoma vs. Texas plus TCU and Boise State in must blowout games

 

At least two of the top teams will lose this week, more than likely eliminating themselves from the National Championship Game.  Sure, they could still play back into the title picture.  The problem is with TCU and Boise State.  Both are in the top five, and both should win out.  It will be major trouble if an undefeated TCU and Boise State lose out to a one-loss team from an automatic qualifying conference.  Can you say Congressional hearings and lawsuits out the wazoo?

 

Here’s our weekly look at the PiRate Ratings along with the mean and biased spreads.

 

NCAA Top 25 September 27, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Alabama 130.4 4 0
2 Oregon 129.0 4 0
3 Boise State 125.4 3 0
4 Ohio State 125.3 4 0
5 T C U 125.2 4 0
6 Arkansas 125.1 3 1
7 Stanford 125.0 4 0
8 Oklahoma 124.4 4 0
9 Miami (Fla) 122.0 2 1
10 Florida 121.3 4 0
11 South Carolina 121.0 3 1
12 Nebraska 120.8 4 0
13 Iowa 120.1 3 1
14 Florida State 119.4 3 1
15 Auburn 119.2 4 0
16 Virginia Tech 118.4 2 2
17 Arizona 118.0 4 0
18 L S U 116.8 4 0
19 Wisconsin 116.7 4 0
20 North Carolina 116.1 1 2
21 Texas 116.0 3 1
22 Texas A&M 115.7 3 0
23 Georgia Tech 115.3 2 2
24 California 115.0 2 2
25 Clemson 113.7 2 1
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 1-0 3-1 119.4
Clemson 0-0 2-1 113.7
Boston College 0-1 2-1 107.0
North Carolina State 1-0 4-0 105.6
Wake Forest 1-1 2-2 99.8
Maryland 0-0 3-1 95.6
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Miami-FL 0-0 2-1 122.0
Virginia Tech 1-0 2-2 118.4
North Carolina 0-1 1-2 116.1
Georgia Tech 1-1 2-2 115.3
Virginia 0-0 2-1 97.3
Duke 0-1 1-3 90.8

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 0-0 3-1 111.7
Connecticut 0-0 2-2 108.6
Pittsburgh 0-0 1-2 108.2
Cincinnati 0-0 1-3 107.0
South Florida 0-0 2-1 103.9
Syracuse 0-0 3-1 99.8
Rutgers 0-0 2-1 96.3
Louisville 0-0 1-2 95.0

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 0-0 4-0 125.3
Iowa 0-0 3-1 120.1
Wisconsin 0-0 4-0 116.7
Michigan 0-0 4-0 111.4
Penn State 0-0 3-1 109.0
Michigan State 0-0 4-0 107.8
Illinois 0-0 2-1 99.1
Northwestern 0-0 4-0 96.7
Minnesota 0-0 1-3 95.6
Purdue 0-0 2-2 94.6
Indiana 0-0 3-0 91.4

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 0-0 4-0 120.8
Missouri 0-0 4-0 112.3
Colorado 0-0 2-1 103.2
Kansas 0-0 2-2 99.5
Kansas State 1-0 4-0 97.8
Iowa State 0-1 2-2 95.1
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 0-0 4-0 124.4
Texas 1-0 3-1 116.0
Texas A&M 0-0 3-0 115.7
Texas Tech 0-1 2-1 111.4
Oklahoma State 0-0 3-0 104.2
Baylor 0-0 3-1 102.5

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 0-0 2-2 95.2
Southern Mississippi 0-0 3-1 93.4
East Carolina 2-0 2-1 91.6
U A B 0-1 1-3 89.5
Marshall 0-0 1-3 87.0
Memphis 0-2 1-3 77.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 2-0 3-1 102.9
S M U 1-0 2-2 96.0
Tulsa 0-1 2-2 89.9
Rice 0-0 1-3 85.7
U T E P 1-1 3-1 82.9
Tulane 0-1 1-2 74.0

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   1-3 108.5
Navy   2-1 99.8
Army   3-1 86.4

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 1-0 3-1 93.9
Miami (O) 1-0 2-2 88.8
Kent St. 0-0 1-2 85.7
Ohio U 0-1 1-3 83.1
Buffalo 0-0 1-3 81.9
Bowling Green 0-0 1-3 79.7
Akron 0-0 0-4 75.0
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-2 91.3
Central Michigan 1-1 2-2 91.0
Toledo 2-0 3-1 85.1
Ball State 0-0 1-3 79.3
Western Michigan 0-1 1-2 77.0
Eastern Michigan 0-2 0-4 70.7

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 0-0 4-0 125.2
Utah 2-0 4-0 111.3
Air Force 2-0 3-1 105.3
B Y U 0-1 1-3 100.1
S. D. State 0-0 3-1 99.9
Wyoming 0-1 1-3 93.5
UNLV 1-1 1-3 92.8
Colo. State 0-0 1-3 83.4
New Mexico 0-2 0-4 74.8

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 1-0 4-0 129.0
Stanford 1-0 4-0 125.0
Arizona 1-0 4-0 118.0
California 0-1 2-2 115.0
Oregon St. 0-0 1-2 112.5
Washington 0-0 1-2 112.0
Southern Cal 1-0 4-0 111.5
U C L A 0-1 2-2 110.0
Arizona St. 0-1 2-2 102.5
Wash. St. 0-1 1-3 87.5

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida 2-0 4-0 121.3
South Carolina 1-1 3-1 121.0
Georgia 0-3 1-3 113.2
Kentucky 0-1 3-1 102.5
Tennessee 0-1 2-2 99.9
Vanderbilt 1-1 1-2 96.3
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 1-0 4-0 130.4
Arkansas 1-1 3-1 125.1
Auburn 2-0 4-0 119.2
L S U 2-0 4-0 116.8
Mississippi State 1-2 2-2 111.9
Ole Miss 0-1 2-2 102.5

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 1-0 2-2 87.4
Middle Tennessee 1-0 2-2 87.8
North Texas 1-0 1-3 82.4
Florida International 0-0 0-3 80.8
U. of Louisiana 1-1 1-2 79.5
Florida Atlantic 0-1 1-2 79.2
Arkansas State 1-2 1-3 78.6
Louisiana-Monroe 0-1 1-2 74.4
Western Kentucky 0-0 0-4 73.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 0-0 3-0 125.4
Nevada 0-0 4-0 109.1
Fresno State 0-0 2-1 101.1
Utah State 0-0 1-3 94.3
Louisiana Tech 0-0 1-3 92.4
Idaho 0-0 2-2 91.8
Hawaii 0-0 2-2 87.5
San Jose State 0-0 1-3 80.6
New Mexico State 0-0 0-3 74.8

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
Thursday, September 30      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Texas A&M OKLAHOMA STATE 8.5 37-28
       
Friday, October 1      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
B y u UTAH STATE 3.3 24-21
       
Saturday, October 2      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Oklahoma  (Dallas) Texas 8.4 24-16
CONNECTICUT Vanderbilt 15.8 33-17
Ohio U EASTERN MICHIGAN 9.9 31-21
MIAMI (O) Kent State 6.1 27-21
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Ball State 14.7 28-13
Northern Illinois AKRON 13.8 31-17
Idaho WESTERN MICHIGAN 11.3 42-31
Wisconsin MICHIGAN STATE 5.9 27-21
Michigan INDIANA 17.0 41-24
MINNESOTA Northwestern 1.9 25-23
Virginia Tech NORTH CAROLINA ST. 9.3 21-12
Temple ARMY 5.0 19-14
NORTH CAROLINA East Carolina 27.5 45-17
RUTGERS Tulane 25.8 33-7
BOWLING GREEN Buffalo 0.8 24-23
Georgia Tech WAKE FOREST 12.5 37-24
MARYLAND Duke 7.8 30-22
Texas Tech IOWA STATE 13.3 33-20
OLE MISS Kentucky 3.0 31-28
Tulsa MEMPHIS 9.5 34-24
BAYLOR Kansas 6.0 27-21
T c u COLORADO STATE 38.8 49-10
AIR FORCE Navy 9.0 37-28
BOSTON COLLEGE Notre Dame 1.5 26-24
L S U Tennessee 20.4 30-10
Ohio State ILLINOIS 23.2 40-17
Georgia COLORADO 6.5 27-20
U t e p NEW MEXICO 6.1 27-21
U C L A Washington State 26.5 34-7
OREGON STATE Arizona State 13.5 38-24
Wyoming TOLEDO 4.9 31-26
S m u RICE 7.3 34-27
Florida State VIRGINIA 18.6 35-16
ALABAMA Florida 12.6 31-18
SOUTHERN MISS Marshall 9.4 33-24
IOWA Penn State 14.6 27-12
SOUTHERN CAL Washington 3.0 24-21
Miami (Fl) CLEMSON 5.3 35-30
Boise State NEW MEXICO ST. 48.1 62-14
Nevada U N L V 13.3 34-21
OREGON Stanford 7.5 38-30
Louisiana Tech HAWAII 0.9 32-31
PITTSBURGH Florida Int’l 30.9 34-3
Louisville ARKANSAS STATE 13.4 34-21
NORTH TEXAS UL-Lafayette 5.9 34-28
AUBURN UL-Monroe 48.8 56-7
SOUTH FLORIDA Florida Atlantic 27.7 42-14

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings
       
Thursday, September 30      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
OKLAHOMA STATE Texas A&M 37-31 30-34
       
Friday, October 1      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
B y u UTAH STATE 31-24 28-16
       
Saturday, October 2      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Oklahoma  (Dallas) Texas 23-17 20-10
CONNECTICUT Vanderbilt 21-16 20-13
Ohio U EASTERN MICHIGAN 33-24 34-20
MIAMI (O) Kent State 28-26 34-24
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Ball State 33-14 35-14
Northern Illinois AKRON 29-16 31-14
Idaho WESTERN MICHIGAN 36-31 35-38
MICHIGAN STATE Wisconsin 24-24 to ot 27-20
Michigan INDIANA 38-27 41-20
Northwestern MINNESOTA 34-24 31-27
Virginia Tech NORTH CAROLINA ST. 17-16 20-10
Temple ARMY 21-14 21-10
NORTH CAROLINA East Carolina 26-16 24-17
RUTGERS Tulane 35-14 35-17
BOWLING GREEN Buffalo 31-23 34-24
Georgia Tech WAKE FOREST 37-31 38-30
MARYLAND Duke 41-27 44-27
Texas Tech IOWA STATE 30-25 31-21
OLE MISS Kentucky 35-34 31-30
Tulsa MEMPHIS 38-31 45-24
BAYLOR Kansas 31-24 30-24
T c u COLORADO STATE 37-7 45-10
AIR FORCE Navy 30-21 28-23
BOSTON COLLEGE Notre Dame 24-22 23-20
L S U Tennessee 31-13 24-10
Ohio State ILLINOIS 42-24 38-17
Georgia COLORADO 27-25 28-26
U t e p NEW MEXICO 38-28 49-24
U C L A Washington State 37-10 34-13
OREGON STATE Arizona State 34-26 35-28
TOLEDO Wyoming 37-31 38-31
S m u RICE 37-28 41-26
Florida State VIRGINIA 23-17 27-16
ALABAMA Florida 23-16 28-13
SOUTHERN MISS Marshall 35-24 33-24
IOWA Penn State 17-12 17-10
SOUTHERN CAL Washington 35-23 38-24
Miami (Fl) CLEMSON 30-26 28-25
Boise State NEW MEXICO ST. 48-7 61-9
Nevada U N L V 41-22 38-24
OREGON Stanford 41-35 41-28
HAWAII Louisiana Tech 28-22 30-17
PITTSBURGH Florida Int’l 28-10 28-10
Louisville ARKANSAS STATE 24-22 27-17
NORTH TEXAS UL-Lafayette 31-27 31-26
AUBURN UL-Monroe 44-12 52-16
SOUTH FLORIDA Florida Atlantic 29-12 24-19

September 20, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: September 23-25, 2010

It was not as pretty as the first two weeks, but the PiRate Ratings eeked out another winner, making it three for three in 2010.  We finished 5-4, making our record for the season against the spread 18-8-1.  We are still quite pleased with our near 70% record, and we are beginning to pick up on some tendencies. 

Our 13-point sweetheart teasers in the NFL are doing quite well.  It looks like a year of closer games in the pro league, and moving the pointspread by 13 points in our favor may be a wise move when we can locate games that are already a point or two off what we think they should be.  We love finding teams that are favorites and moving them to ‘dogs.  Here are the picks in depth.

 

1. California -2 ½ vs. Nevada

Loss

We blew this one to start off the weekend in the hole.  The Wolf Pack skinned the Bears, who when last spotted were more scared of the pistol than the 20-gauge.

 

2. Alabama -24 vs. Duke

WON

The Tide covered the spread in the first quarter.  We felt that the oddsmakers and bettors were giving the Blue Devils too much credit and home field advantage.

 

3. 13-point teaser: Purdue -3 ½ vs. Ball State, East Carolina +32 ½ vs. Virginia Tech, Wisconsin -1 vs. Arizona State, Oregon State -6 ½ vs. Louisville

Loss

One caveat.  Many of you who bought our picks and played this on Friday would have actually won this selection.  Wisconsin was a 13 ½ point favorite and not 14, so you would have gotten the Badgers at – ½.  This is the one drawback of sweetheart teasers.  A regular teaser would have been a push here with Wisconsin winning by one, but we must count this one as a loss.

 

4. 13-point teaser: Boise State -10 ½ vs. Wyoming, Arizona + 14 ½ vs. Iowa, Memphis +18 vs. Middle Tennessee, Troy +10 vs. UAB

WON

None of these games were ever in doubt.  We loved Boise coming off a bye week.  We felt Arizona had a great shot at the upset and even if Iowa could win, we did not see the Hawkeyes travelling across two time zones and winning by more than two touchdowns.  We felt that Middle Tennessee could not beat Memphis by double digits, and they lost outright.  We did not see UAB beating Troy, but it was by one point, so we were safe.

 

5. Kansas City +1 vs. Cleveland

WON

Normally, we would not have played this game.  The Chiefs were coming off an emotional Monday night win against San Diego and were having to play on the road.  Usually, all momentum is lost under this circumstance.  However, we felt like the Chiefs could shut down Cleveland’s offense, and they did.

 

6. Atlanta & Arizona Under 43

Loss

We knew the Cardinals would not score many points in this game, but we didn’t think their defense would implode.  Atlanta showed no semblance of a running game against the Steelers, and we thought they would concentrate on running the ball in game two.  We were looking for a 24-13 game.

 

7. Moneyline Parlay at +110: Minnesota over Miami and Indianapolis over the Giants

Loss

The Vikings have returned to Viqueens status.  Brett Favre has looked like he should have stayed retired this time.  Miami may prove to be a great team this year, and it could be a case of Minnesota playing two outstanding opponents, but we may lay off the Vikings for a few weeks.

 

Indianapolis rebounded with a great game and earned our respect without us throwing our helmets into the stands.

 

8. 10-point teaser: Green Bay & Buffalo Over 33, Philadelphia & Detroit Over 32, Dallas & Chicago Over 31

WON

Here are three more games that covered for us with ease.  We were confident the Packers would score enough to cover even if the Bills were shut out.  We are down on the Eagles and believe the Lions will begin to win some more games this year, so we felt this game would at least top 40 total points.  We expected a shootout in Dallas with both teams topping 20 points, and even though we thought Dallas would win 24-21, we still won by playing only the total in this game.

 

9. 13-point teaser: Cleveland +12 vs. Kansas City, Cleveland & Kansas City Under 51, Baltimore +12 vs. Cincinnati, Pittsburgh +18 vs. Tennessee

WON

The Browns and Chiefs are the two teams that gave us our winning weekend.  We felt that Kansas City would win by less than a touchdown and that neither team would top 24 points.  We thought the Ravens and Bengals would have a fantastic matchup with the game being decided by less than a touchdown either way.  Even though we expected a few more points, we were happy with the 15-10 Cinti win.  We had no way of knowing the Titans would have as many turnovers as first downs until late in the game; we expected a 14-10 Tennessee win, but we were safe in this game after the opening kickoff.

 

Odds and Ends

 

ACC and Big East Better Look Behind Them

 

The Mountain West Conference may be on the brink of becoming the fifth best conference in college football.  Even with the loss of Utah, the additions of Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada may move the MWC ahead of the ACC and Big East.

 

If this season were factored into the equation, you would have two top five teams in TCU and Boise State, as well as Air Force, Nevada, Fresno State, BYU, and two up and coming teams in San Diego State and Wyoming.

 

If the Big Ten raids the ACC and/or the Big East, the new Mountain West could indeed become the fifth best league in the land.

 

Could The Pac-10 Land Two Teams in BCS Bowl Without The Trojans?

 

Oregon continues to lead the way in the PiRate Ratings poll.  Arizona and Stanford keep moving up.  Is it possible that two of these three teams could end up in a BCS Bowl in January? 

 

Oregon hosts the Wildcats and Cardinal, and the Ducks look unbeatable three weeks into the season.  True, New Mexico and Portland State offered no competition, and Tennessee is headed toward a probable losing season.  However, this team is certainly much better this year than when they won the conference last year.

 

Stanford looks like a team capable of going 10-2 or 11-1.  If they win at Notre Dame this week, it will set up the best Pac-10 game since the Southern Cal and California game in 2004 when the Cardinal visit Autzen Stadium to take on the Ducks the following week.

 

Arizona suffers by playing at Oregon and at Stanford, but the Wildcats could easily win 10 games this year.

 

Another Big Week in the SEC

 

Could Alabama be stronger this season after losing so much talent from last year’s title run?  A defense that lost nine starters and 13 of the top 16 tacklers appears to be even tougher this year.  The offense is definitely better with the maturity of Greg McElroy at quarterback.

 

This starts a three-week grind for Nick Saban’s troops, as Alabama plays at Arkansas, hosts Florida, and goes to South Carolina.  Check back in three weeks.  If Alabama is 6-0, then they will win the next seven games as well and enter the National Championship Game at 13-0 for the second consecutive season.

 

Will Arkansas give Alabama a tough game this week?  They might, but we have some doubts.  While Ryan Mallett and his stable of receivers aren’t far behind some of the weaker NFL passing units, the Tide’s secondary might be strong enough to shut down some of the weaker NFL passing units. 

 

Auburn hosts South Carolina and Florida hosts Kentucky in two battles of unbeatens.  We don’t expect the Wildcats to give the Gators a great game, but the Tigers and Gamecocks should be one to watch.

 

Outside of league play, LSU looks to move to 4-0 since they were national champs in 2007.  The Tigers face unbeaten West Virginia.

 

Will a Big Ten Team Get Upset This Week?

 

This is the week in Big Ten play where 10 teams host either a MAC or FCS opponent.  Illinois has an off week.  Could one or league teams lose? 

 

You can toss out Ohio State-Eastern Michigan, Wisconsin-Austin Peay, Iowa-Ball State, Michigan State-Northern Colorado, and Indiana-Akron.  These games are locks for the Big Ten team.

 

Penn State should beat Temple, but it is not a given.  Michigan should beat Bowling Green, but the Falcons are better than UMass.  Northwestern should move to 4-0 for the second time in three seasons, but Central Michigan has enough talent to hang with the Wildcats.

 

That leaves two possible upset opportunities.  Purdue hosts an improving Toledo team that has a lot of offensive firepower.  The Boilermakers have not been impressive to date, and Danny Hope could feel his seat warming if the Rockets win at Ross-Ade Stadium this week.  Minnesota hosts a Northern Illinois team that took Illinois to the final gun last week.  The Gophers are ripe for a bad bounce after playing Southern Cal last week.  They lost to South Dakota two weeks ago, and a loss in this game could get the ball rolling for an ouster of Tim Brewster as head coach.  It would be hard to find another UM victory if they lose this week.

 

NCAA Top 25 September 20, 2010

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Oregon

130.6

3

0

2

Alabama

130.2

3

0

3

T C U

126.0

3

0

4

Ohio State

125.8

3

0

5

Oklahoma

125.4

3

0

6

Arkansas

125.1

3

0

7

Boise State

124.8

2

0

8

Stanford

123.5

3

0

9

Nebraska

123.3

3

0

10

South Carolina

122.5

3

0

11

Miami (Fla)

120.5

1

1

12

Iowa

119.9

2

1

13

Georgia Tech

119.8

2

1

14

Florida

119.7

3

0

15

Texas

119.5

3

0

16

Arizona

118.3

3

0

17

North Carolina

118.2

0

2

18

Florida State

117.8

2

1

19

Auburn

117.1

3

0

20

Virginia Tech

117.1

1

2

21

L S U

116.9

3

0

22

Texas A&M

115.7

3

0

23

Georgia

115.5

1

2

24

California

115.3

2

1

25

Wisconsin

115.2

3

0

 

 

 

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida State

0-0

2-1

117.8

Clemson

0-0

2-1

113.7

Boston College

0-0

2-0

108.3

Wake Forest

1-0

2-1

101.6

North Carolina State

0-0

3-0

101.1

Maryland

0-0

2-1

96.3

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Miami-FL

0-0

1-1

120.5

Georgia Tech

1-0

2-1

119.8

North Carolina

0-1

0-2

118.2

Virginia Tech

0-0

1-2

117.1

Virginia

0-0

1-1

97.1

Duke

0-1

1-2

93.7

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

West Virginia

0-0

3-0

111.5

Pittsburgh

0-0

1-1

110.0

Connecticut

0-0

1-2

109.3

South Florida

0-0

1-1

105.7

Cincinnati

0-0

1-2

105.7

Syracuse

0-0

2-1

100.1

Rutgers

0-0

2-0

95.3

Louisville

0-0

1-2

95.0

 

Big Ten

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Ohio State

0-0

3-0

125.8

Iowa

0-0

2-1

119.9

Wisconsin

0-0

3-0

115.2

Penn State

0-0

2-1

109.8

Michigan

0-0

3-0

109.4

Michigan State

0-0

3-0

107.3

Illinois

0-0

2-1

99.1

Minnesota

0-0

1-2

98.3

Purdue

0-0

2-1

97.3

Northwestern

0-0

3-0

96.9

Indiana

0-0

2-0

92.2

 

Big 12

North Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nebraska

0-0

3-0

123.3

Missouri

0-0

3-0

111.2

Colorado

0-0

2-1

103.2

Kansas

0-0

1-2

99.3

Kansas State

1-0

3-0

98.1

Iowa State

0-1

1-2

94.9

 

 

 

 

South Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

0-0

3-0

125.4

Texas

1-0

3-0

119.5

Texas A&M

0-0

3-0

115.7

Texas Tech

0-1

2-1

111.4

Oklahoma State

0-0

3-0

104.2

Baylor

0-0

2-1

102.2

 

Conference USA

East Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Florida

0-0

2-1

94.9

Southern Mississippi

0-0

2-1

92.8

East Carolina

2-0

2-1

91.6

U A B

0-1

1-2

87.9

Marshall

0-0

0-3

87.7

Memphis

0-1

1-2

77.4

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

1-0

2-1

104.0

S M U

1-0

2-1

94.9

Tulsa

0-1

1-2

89.6

Rice

0-0

1-2

86.0

U T E P

0-1

2-1

83.4

Tulane

0-0

1-1

73.2

 

Independents

 

 

 

 

Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame

 

1-2

109.7

Navy

 

2-1

99.8

Army

 

2-1

84.1

 

Mid American Conference

East Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

1-0

3-0

92.6

Miami (O)

1-0

2-1

89.9

Kent St.

0-0

1-2

85.7

Ohio U

0-1

1-2

82.9

Buffalo

0-0

1-2

81.2

Bowling Green

0-0

1-2

80.9

Akron

0-0

0-3

74.7

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Michigan

1-1

2-1

90.8

Northern Illinois

0-0

1-2

89.3

Toledo

2-0

2-1

82.1

Ball State

0-0

1-2

79.8

Western Michigan

0-1

1-2

77.0

Eastern Michigan

0-2

0-3

70.2

 

Mountain West Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

T C U

0-0

3-0

126.0

Utah

2-0

3-0

107.5

Air Force

1-0

2-1

105.4

B Y U

0-1

1-2

101.4

S. D. State

0-0

2-1

95.4

Wyoming

0-0

1-2

93.4

UNLV

0-1

0-3

91.5

Colo. State

0-0

0-3

82.2

New Mexico

0-1

0-3

76.6

 

Pac-10 Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oregon

0-0

3-0

130.6

Stanford

1-0

3-0

123.5

Arizona

0-0

3-0

118.3

California

0-0

2-1

115.3

Oregon St.

0-0

1-1

112.6

Washington

0-0

1-2

112.0

Southern Cal

0-0

3-0

109.9

U C L A

0-1

1-2

106.5

Arizona St.

0-0

2-1

100.5

Wash. St.

0-0

1-2

89.5

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

South Carolina

1-0

3-0

122.5

Florida

1-0

3-0

119.7

Georgia

0-2

1-2

115.5

Kentucky

0-0

3-0

104.1

Tennessee

0-1

1-2

101.8

Vanderbilt

1-1

1-2

96.3

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

0-0

3-0

130.2

Arkansas

1-0

3-0

125.1

Auburn

1-0

3-0

117.1

L S U

2-0

3-0

116.9

Mississippi State

0-2

1-2

109.9

Ole Miss

0-1

1-2

101.4

 

Sunbelt Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Troy

0-0

1-2

87.6

Middle Tennessee

0-0

1-2

85.9

U. of Louisiana

1-0

1-1

81.4

North Texas

0-0

0-3

81.4

Florida International

0-0

0-2

80.4

Florida Atlantic

0-0

1-1

80.2

Arkansas State

1-1

1-2

78.4

Louisiana-Monroe

0-1

0-2

75.6

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-3

72.5

 

Western Athletic Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

0-0

2-0

124.8

Nevada

0-0

3-0

107.5

Fresno State

0-0

2-0

102.5

Utah State

0-0

1-2

97.1

Idaho

0-0

2-1

93.0

Louisiana Tech

0-0

1-2

93.0

Hawaii

0-0

1-2

86.3

San Jose State

0-0

1-2

83.4

New Mexico State

0-0

0-2

75.0

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)

 

 

Thursday, September 23

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Score

Miami-Fla

PITTSBURGH

7.0

31-24

 

 

 

 

Friday, September 24

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Score

T c u

S M U

30.7

45-14

 

 

 

 

Saturday, September 25

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Score

NORTHWESTERN

Central Michigan

9.1

28-19

PURDUE

Toledo

18.2

42-24

MICHIGAN

Bowling Green

32.0

49-17

IOWA

Ball State

44.1

47-3

OHIO STATE

Eastern Michigan

59.6

63-3

Virginia Tech

BOSTON COLLEGE

5.3

21-16

PENN STATE

Temple

20.2

30-10

GEORGIA TECH

North Carolina State

21.7

38-16

FLORIDA STATE

Wake Forest

19.7

48-28

DUKE

Army

12.5

30-17

CONNECTICUT

Buffalo

31.1

45-14

Georgia

MISSISSIPPI STATE

2.6

24-21

OLE MISS

Fresno State

1.9

26-24

KANSAS

New Mexico State

27.8

42-14

MISSOURI

Miami-Ohio

25.3

35-10

Air Force

WYOMING

9.0

37-28

KANSAS STATE

Central Florida

6.7

24-17

HOUSTON

Tulane

33.8

54-20

Oklahoma

CINCINNATI (P.Brown Sta)

16.7

38-21

Alabama

ARKANSAS

2.1

24-22

BOISE STATE

Oregon State

15.2

35-20

Stanford

NOTRE DAME

9.8

34-24

ARIZONA

California

6.2

30-24

TEXAS

U c l a

17.0

31-14

Idaho

COLORADO STATE

7.8

35-27

Nevada

B Y U

3.1

34-31

Southern Cal

WASHINGTON STATE

17.4

34-17

FLORIDA

Kentucky

19.6

37-17

LOUISIANA TECH

Southern Miss

2.7

34-31

TENNESSEE

U a b

17.4

30-13

INDIANA

Akron

20.5

35-14

MARSHALL

Ohio U

7.3

28-21

South Carolina

AUBURN

2.4

24-22

UTAH

San Jose State

27.1

44-17

SAN DIEGO STATE

Utah State

1.3

31-30

L S U

West Virginia

8.9

23-14

Baylor

RICE

13.7

38-24

North Carolina

RUTGERS

19.9

37-17

MINNESOTA

Northern Illinois

12.0

35-23

UTEP

Memphis

9.0

37-28

U N L V

New Mexico

17.9

35-17

Oregon

ARIZONA STATE

26.6

37-10

TROY

Arkansas State

12.2

31-19

Middle Tennessee

UL-LAFAYETTE

2.0

26-24

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

North Texas

1.8

30-28

SOUTH FLORIDA

Western Kentucky

36.2

49-13

MARYLAND

Florida International

19.4

35-16

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings

 

 

 

 

Thursday, September 23

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Mean

Biased

PITTSBURGH

Miami-Fla

25-24

20-28

 

 

 

 

Friday, September 24

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Mean

Biased

T c u

S M U

41-24

44-17

 

 

 

 

Saturday, September 25

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Mean

Biased

NORTHWESTERN

Central Michigan

28-23

27-13

PURDUE

Toledo

31-23

31-27

MICHIGAN

Bowling Green

44-28

45-24

IOWA

Ball State

35-7

41-6

OHIO STATE

Eastern Michigan

51-7

56-0

Virginia Tech

BOSTON COLLEGE

24-20

23-21

PENN STATE

Temple

24-13

24-10

GEORGIA TECH

North Carolina State

34-27

31-26

FLORIDA STATE

Wake Forest

40-28

42-27

DUKE

Army

35-26

31-21

CONNECTICUT

Buffalo

28-13

30-14

Georgia

MISSISSIPPI STATE

24-22

24-20

Fresno State

OLE MISS

30-24

31-17

KANSAS

New Mexico State

34-10

30-17

MISSOURI

Miami-Ohio

34-17

34-17

Air Force

WYOMING

35-21

31-21

KANSAS STATE

Central Florida

20-14

20-16

HOUSTON

Tulane

43-20

54-13

Oklahoma

CINCINNATI (P.Brown Sta)

30-17

38-16

Alabama

ARKANSAS

23-14

28-13

BOISE STATE

Oregon State

37-21

42-21

Stanford

NOTRE DAME

35-24

38-24

ARIZONA

California

35-26

41-31

TEXAS

U c l a

27-7

28-6

Idaho

COLORADO STATE

31-18

33-17

Nevada

B Y U

40-34

45-27

Southern Cal

WASHINGTON STATE

31-7

34-10

FLORIDA

Kentucky

34-17

34-17

Southern Miss

LOUISIANA TECH

34-27

32-24

TENNESSEE

U a b

30-14

30-10

INDIANA

Akron

38-16

41-17

MARSHALL

Ohio U

27-24

27-25

AUBURN

South Carolina

24-24 to ot

23-27

UTAH

San Jose State

37-10

38-12

SAN DIEGO STATE

Utah State

35-30

35-21

L S U

West Virginia

24-12

24-17

Baylor

RICE

35-27

38-20

North Carolina

RUTGERS

24-22

24-14

MINNESOTA

Northern Illinois

29-21

24-25

UTEP

Memphis

31-23

37-24

U N L V

New Mexico

35-27

33-20

Oregon

ARIZONA STATE

35-20

34-14

TROY

Arkansas State

35-23

30-16

Middle Tennessee

UL-LAFAYETTE

28-27

24-28

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

North Texas

31-17

31-16

SOUTH FLORIDA

Western Kentucky

38-12

35-10

MARYLAND

Florida International

27-14

24-17

 

September 13, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: September 16-18, 2010

We are red hot to start the 2010 season.  After starting off week one with a 5-1-1 record, we decided to go with 11 different propositions in week two and finished 8-3.  For the season, our record against the spread stands at 13-4-1 for 76.5%!  Yeah, team.  For those who did not purchase our picks, here is how it went:

 

1. Florida Atlantic + 28 ½ vs. Michigan State                        WON

 

2. Moneyline parlay at even odds: East Carolina, LSU, Boston College, Texas A&M, and Texas all won                                              WON

 

3. 10-point teaser: LSU + ½ vs. Vandy, California +1 vs. Colorado, and Michigan +4 vs. Notre Dame                                                         

WON

 

4. 10-point teaser: Baylor -6 ½ vs. Buffalo, Florida Atlantic +38 ½ vs. Michigan State, and Rice +12 ½ vs. North Texas           

WON

 

5. 10-point teaser: Boston College -7 vs. Kent State, Miami (Fl) +19 vs. Ohio State, and BYU +11 vs. Air Force                             

Lost

 

6. 10-point teaser: Oregon -2 ½ vs. Tennessee, Bowling Green & Tulsa Over 52, and Syracuse +23 ½ vs. Washington                        

WON

 

7. 10-point teaser: Georgia Tech -4 Kansas, Georgia Tech & Kansas Under 60, and East Carolina -2 Memphis                                 

Lost

 

8. 10-point teaser: Detroit + 16 ½ vs. Chicago, New England +5 ½ vs. Cincinnati, and Denver and Jacksonville Over 30             

WON

 

9. 10-point teaser: Indianapolis +8 vs. Houston, Baltimore +2 ½ vs. New York Jets, and San Diego +5 ½ vs. Kansas City              

Lost (already lost on Indy game before the two Monday nighters)

 

10. 13-point teaser: Houston & UTEP Over 57 ½, Wake Forest & Duke Over 36 ½, S. Florida +38 vs. Florida, and Iowa – ½ vs. Iowa St.      

WON

 

11. 13-point teaser: Miami (O) -3 vs. E. Michigan, Texas A&M -6 vs. La. Tech, Alabama +1 ½ vs. Penn St., and S.D. State Pk vs. N. Mex. St. WON

 

We are very happy to see that almost all of you that purchased our picks last week have already done so for this week.  Thank you for your support, and we hope to repeat our performance again.  For those new folks interested in playing with us, go to www.piratings.webs.com to purchase our picks for the week.  Deadline every week is 7PM Eastern Time on Wednesdays.

 

 

The Weekly PiRate Ratings

Requiem for a conference:  Alas poor ACC, I knew it well.  Good bye for your BCS Championship hopes.  In one day, Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech lost and eliminated themselves from the national title picture.

 

The ACC can now struggle with the Big East as both conferences just might be on the precipice of dropping below the Mountain West Conference. 

 

After two weeks, the once given up for dead Big 12 is looking particularly strong.  In the South, all six teams are 2-0.  Missouri, Nebraska, and Kansas State are 2-0.  No other league has nine 2-0 teams.

 

We do not discount Boise State’s win over Virginia Tech because of the Hokies’ loss to James Madison.  BSU won on the road (virtually a road game) 2,000 miles away from home against a top 10 team.  The Hokies were too flat Saturday and shot themselves in the foot.  We expect VT to catch fire now and play Beamer Ball to the max. 

 

As for the top two teams, Oregon and Alabama proved their worth Saturday.  The Tide looked more like a Bear Bryant team from the 1960’s than last year’s title team.  No Mark Ingram—No problem!  The Tide’s second 22 might be a top 20 team.

 

The Ducks may have been shaken by a one hour thunderstorm delay.  They played a bit lethargically for 25 minutes, and then BOOM.  Oregon ripped off 45 consecutive points about as quickly as they did against New Mexico.  Jeremiah who?

 

PiRate NCAA Top 25 for September 14, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Oregon 130.1 2 0
2 Alabama 127.2 2 0
3 Oklahoma 126.6 2 0
4 Ohio State 125.7 2 0
5 Arkansas 124.7 2 0
6 T C U 124.4 2 0
7 South Carolina 122.8 2 0
8 Boise State 122.3 1 0
9 Iowa 121.1 2 0
10 Stanford 120.5 2 0
11 Miami (Fla) 120.5 1 1
12 Nebraska 120.3 2 0
13 Florida 119.9 2 0
14 North Carolina 119.5 0 1
15 Georgia Tech 118.5 1 1
16 Texas 118.4 2 0
17 Virginia Tech 117.7 0 2
18 Auburn 117.6 2 0
19 California 117.0 2 0
20 Arizona 116.8 2 0
21 Florida State 116.7 1 1
22 Texas A&M 116.4 2 0
23 Wisconsin 116.4 2 0
24 L S U 115.9 2 0
25 Georgia 115.9 1 1
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 0-0 1-1 116.7
Clemson 0-0 2-0 113.2
Boston College 0-0 2-0 108.3
Wake Forest 1-0 2-0 103.4
North Carolina State 0-0 2-0 98.6
Maryland 0-0 2-0 96.4
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Miami-FL 0-0 1-1 120.5
North Carolina 0-0 0-1 119.5
Georgia Tech 0-0 1-1 118.5
Virginia Tech 0-0 0-2 117.7
Virginia 0-0 1-1 97.1
Duke 0-1 1-1 95.5

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 0-0 2-0 111.4
Connecticut 0-0 1-1 111.4
Pittsburgh 0-0 1-1 110.0
Cincinnati 0-0 1-1 108.2
South Florida 0-0 1-1 105.7
Syracuse 0-0 1-1 101.3
Rutgers 0-0 2-0 95.3
Louisville 0-0 1-1 93.9

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 0-0 2-0 125.7
Iowa 0-0 2-0 121.1
Wisconsin 0-0 2-0 116.4
Michigan 0-0 2-0 110.2
Penn State 0-0 1-1 109.6
Michigan State 0-0 2-0 106.5
Illinois 0-0 1-1 99.8
Minnesota 0-0 1-1 98.9
Purdue 0-0 1-1 97.9
Northwestern 0-0 2-0 95.9
Indiana 0-0 1-0 92.0

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 0-0 2-0 120.3
Missouri 0-0 2-0 111.8
Colorado 0-0 1-1 103.0
Kansas 0-0 1-1 100.7
Kansas State 0-0 2-0 97.9
Iowa State 0-0 1-1 95.1
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 0-0 2-0 126.6
Texas 0-0 2-0 118.4
Texas A&M 0-0 2-0 116.4
Texas Tech 0-0 2-0 112.5
Baylor 0-0 2-0 103.8
Oklahoma State 0-0 2-0 101.2

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 0-0 1-1 94.7
Southern Mississippi 0-0 1-1 91.7
East Carolina 2-0 2-0 91.0
Marshall 0-0 0-2 89.9
U A B 0-1 0-2 87.6
Memphis 0-1 0-2 75.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 1-0 2-0 105.1
S M U 1-0 1-1 94.4
Tulsa 0-1 1-1 92.6
Rice 0-0 1-1 87.0
U T E P 0-1 1-1 81.4
Tulane 0-0 1-1 73.2

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   1-1 110.5
Navy   1-1 98.6
Army   1-1 82.8

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 1-0 2-0 90.8
Miami (O) 1-0 1-1 89.3
Kent St. 0-0 1-1 85.9
Ohio U 0-1 1-1 83.0
Buffalo 0-0 1-1 81.4
Bowling Green 0-0 0-2 78.7
Akron 0-0 0-2 75.5
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Michigan 0-1 1-1 89.5
Northern Illinois 0-0 1-1 88.6
Toledo 1-0 1-1 81.4
Ball State 0-0 1-1 79.4
Western Michigan 0-0 1-1 77.7
Eastern Michigan 0-1 0-2 71.8

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 0-0 2-0 124.4
Utah 1-0 2-0 106.0
Air Force 1-0 2-0 104.2
B Y U 0-1 1-1 102.5
Wyoming 0-0 1-1 95.4
S. D. State 0-0 2-0 94.3
UNLV 0-1 0-2 93.2
Colo. State 0-0 0-2 83.3
New Mexico 0-0 0-2 78.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 0-0 2-0 130.1
Stanford 1-0 2-0 120.5
California 0-0 2-0 117.0
Arizona 0-0 2-0 116.8
Washington 0-0 1-1 115.0
Oregon St. 0-0 0-1 113.7
Southern Cal 0-0 2-0 109.3
U C L A 0-1 0-2 105.4
Arizona St. 0-0 2-0 99.0
Wash. St. 0-0 1-1 90.0

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 1-0 2-0 122.8
Florida 0-0 2-0 119.9
Georgia 0-1 1-1 115.9
Kentucky 0-0 2-0 102.8
Tennessee 0-0 1-1 101.6
Vanderbilt 0-1 0-2 94.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 0-0 2-0 127.2
Arkansas 0-0 2-0 124.7
Auburn 1-0 2-0 117.6
L S U 1-0 2-0 115.9
Mississippi State 0-1 1-1 111.2
Ole Miss 0-0 1-1 103.8

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 0-0 1-1 87.9
Middle Tennessee 0-0 1-1 87.9
North Texas 0-0 0-2 82.7
U. of Louisiana 1-0 1-1 81.4
Florida Atlantic 0-0 1-1 80.2
Florida International 0-0 0-1 79.7
Arkansas State 0-1 0-2 77.7
Louisiana-Monroe 0-0 0-1 76.3
Western Kentucky 0-0 0-2 72.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 0-0 1-0 122.3
Nevada 0-0 2-0 104.8
Fresno State 0-0 1-0 101.1
Utah State 0-0 1-1 98.0
Louisiana Tech 0-0 1-1 94.2
Idaho 0-0 1-1 91.3
Hawaii 0-0 1-1 86.5
San Jose State 0-0 0-2 83.7
New Mexico State 0-0 0-1 77.2

 

 

Caution: Never use the raw PiRate ratings to determine betting options for football games.  They are only a starting point.  We do not use our raw ratings when me make our selections, and neither should you.

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
Thursday, September 16      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Cincinnati NORTH CAROLINA ST. 6.6 27-20
       
Friday, September 17      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Kansas SOUTHERN MISS 6.0 34-28
California NEVADA 9.7 34-24
       
Saturday, September 18      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Arkansas GEORGIA 5.3 31-26
KENTUCKY Akron 30.3 44-14
Indiana WESTERN KENTUCKY 16.8 34-17
MISSOURI San Diego State 21.5 40-18
OLE MISS Vanderbilt 11.9 21-9
NORTH CAROLINA Georgia Tech 4.0 28-24
OHIO STATE Ohio U 45.2 48-3
OKLAHOMA STATE Tulsa 11.1 38-27
PENN STATE Kent State 27.2 34-7
Connecticut TEMPLE 18.1 28-10
Northwestern RICE 5.9 34-28
WEST VIRGINIA Maryland 18.0 35-17
ILLINOIS Northern Illinois 13.7 31-17
ARKANSAS STATE La.-Monroe 3.9 31-27
Kansas State (at KC) Iowa State 4.8 27-22
PURDUE Ball State 21.0 35-14
ARMY North Texas 3.6 24-20
VIRGINIA TECH East Carolina 30.2 44-14
COLORADO Hawaii 20.0 41-21
FLORIDA STATE B y u 17.7 38-20
Southern Cal MINNESOTA 6.9 20-13
Alabama DUKE 29.2 35-6
MIAMI (O) Colorado State 9.5 31-21
OKLAHOMA Air Force 25.4 42-17
Nebraska WASHINGTON 1.8 19-17
WISCONSIN Arizona State 20.9 38-17
Florida TENNESSEE 14.8 28-13
S M U Washington State 7.4 34-27
U A B Troy 2.2 30-28
Central Michigan EASTERN MICHIGAN 15.2 35-20
T C U Baylor 23.6 34-10
OREGON STATE Louisville 24.3 38-14
AUBURN Clemson 7.4 34-27
Marshall BOWLING GREEN 8.7 30-21
Middle Tennessee MEMPHIS 9.5 45-35
TEXAS A&M Florida Int’l 40.2 52-12
Central Florida BUFFALO 9.8 27-17
Toledo WESTERN MICHIGAN 1.2 28-27
Navy LOUISIANA TECH 0.9 24-23
L S U Mississippi State 7.7 31-23
Fresno State UTAH STATE 0.6 31-30
Texas TEXAS TECH 2.9 31-28
Utah NEW MEXICO 24.6 28-3
Boise State WYOMING 23.9 34-10
U T E P New Mexico State 6.7 34-27
Iowa ARIZONA 0.8 17-16
U C L A Houston 3.8 38-34
IDAHO U n l v 1.1 31-30
STANFORD Wake Forest 21.1 38-17

 

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings
       
Thursday, September 16      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
NORTH CAROLINA ST. Cincinnati 26-24 21-17
       
Friday, September 17      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Kansas SOUTHERN MISS 28-27 17-27
California NEVADA 34-31 44-24
       
Saturday, September 18      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
GEORGIA Arkansas 24-22 28-24
KENTUCKY Akron 42-13 41-14
Indiana WESTERN KENTUCKY 35-24 31-20
MISSOURI San Diego State 35-17 35-17
OLE MISS Vanderbilt 19-7 20-7
NORTH CAROLINA Georgia Tech 28-24 31-27
OHIO STATE Ohio U 40-7 54-7
OKLAHOMA STATE Tulsa 45-33 45-35
PENN STATE Kent State 31-7 28-6
Connecticut TEMPLE 24-24 to ot 27-17
Northwestern RICE 34-24 27-20
WEST VIRGINIA Maryland 31-23 28-23
ILLINOIS Northern Illinois 31-20 30-18
ARKANSAS STATE La.-Monroe 30-30 to ot 34-27
Kansas State (at KC) Iowa State 26-21 24-19
PURDUE Ball State 31-17 35-14
ARMY North Texas 27-21 24-31
VIRGINIA TECH East Carolina 33-20 35-24
COLORADO Hawaii 31-24 31-26
FLORIDA STATE B y u 34-32 33-21
Southern Cal MINNESOTA 21-10 21-12
Alabama DUKE 35-10 44-13
MIAMI (O) Colorado State 30-24 32-24
OKLAHOMA Air Force 31-21 41-17
Nebraska WASHINGTON 26-20 27-14
WISCONSIN Arizona State 34-24 28-17
Florida TENNESSEE 28-14 27-14
S M U Washington State 34-14 44-20
Troy U A B 31-23 38-26
Central Michigan EASTERN MICHIGAN 34-17 24-17
T C U Baylor 34-14 30-16
OREGON STATE Louisville 30-10 35-14
AUBURN Clemson 33-28 31-24
BOWLING GREEN Marshall 28-26 26-30
Middle Tennessee MEMPHIS 42-34 38-34
TEXAS A&M Florida Int’l 42-17 40-17
Central Florida BUFFALO 24-19 24-20
WESTERN MICHIGAN Toledo 28-25 27-21
Navy LOUISIANA TECH 24-20 20-24
L S U Mississippi State 31-20 19-17
Fresno State UTAH STATE 35-30 28-20
Texas TEXAS TECH 28-26 24-20
Utah NEW MEXICO 40-14 37-14
Boise State WYOMING 35-13 41-17
U T E P New Mexico State 35-22 38-28
ARIZONA Iowa 24-23 24-21
Houston U C L A 35-28 42-31
IDAHO U n l v 41-33 38-30
STANFORD Wake Forest 35-21 42-24

 

September 8, 2010

College Football PiRate Ratings For September 9-11, 2010

College PiRate Ratings September 9-11, 2010

What a great start to the college football season!  The PiRates began with a 5-1-1 record against the spread.  If you were one of the lucky ones to purchase our picks in week one, you should have a little spending money in your wallets. 

We told you Thursday afternoon that Michigan would not only cover against Connecticut, but that they would win by more than two touchdowns.  We told you that Minnesota would cover on the road at Middle Tennessee, and even though we had to sweat it out, the Gophers dominated the line of scrimmage and ran 82 plays to just 47 for the Blue Raiders.  We told you to go against the flow in the Monday night game and take Boise State.  This pick was based on our contrarian stock-picking philosophy.  Boise was a big underlay, as Virginia Tech was hyped to the point where the line had moved too much.  We told you that we thought Oregon would cover against New Mexico by halftime, and they did it halfway through the second quarter.  72-0 could have easily been 100-0.

Our Moneyline parlay of Southern Cal, Arizona, Colorado, Notre Dame, and Clemson at +90 won with ease.

We lost on the Texas-Rice game, and we were not close on that one.  We pushed on the Notre Dame-Purdue game (we picked Purdue).  That gives us an excellent start at 83.3%.

This week, we add the NFL to our picks.  Go to www.piratings.webs.com to sign up before 7 PM Eastern Time Wednesday.

Is this week two of the NCAA football season, or is it bowl season?  This is the weekend to forgo the lawn work and set up as many TVs as you can fit in your favorite room. Starting at Noon Eastern Time, Georgia and South Carolina hook up in an early season SEC game.  With Florida looking vulnerable after one week, the winner of this game could become the new top contender in the East Division.  Speaking of the Gators, Florida hosts South Florida and new coach Skip Holtz.  Throw in Florida State at Oklahoma, Iowa State at Iowa, Michigan at Notre Dame, Miami (Fl) at Ohio State, BYU at Air Force, Central Michigan at Temple, Penn State at Alabama, Oregon at Tennessee, and Stanford at UCLA, and you have more games than you can watch with just two TVs.

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings. 

Remember: Never use these raw ratings to determine pointspreads.  We use these only as a starting point.  Other factors move our take on these ratings by as much as 17 points.

NCAA Top 25 August 30, 2010 Season
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Oregon 128.4 1 0
2 Alabama 126.4 1 0
3 Arkansas 125.2 1 0
4 Ohio State 124.3 1 0
5 T C U 124.1 1 0
6 Oklahoma 123.6 1 0
7 Boise State 122.3 1 0
8 Miami (Fla) 121.4 1 0
9 Virginia Tech 121.2 0 1
10 South Carolina 121.0 1 0
11 Nebraska 120.3 1 0
12 Georgia Tech 120.2 1 0
13 Iowa 120.1 1 0
14 North Carolina 119.5 0 1
15 Florida State 119.2 1 0
16 Florida 119.1 1 0
17 Texas 118.7 1 0
18 Stanford 118.2 1 0
19 Wisconsin 117.4 1 0
20 Auburn 117.0 1 0
21 Arizona 116.8 1 0
22 Georgia 116.7 1 0
23 L S U 114.6 1 0
24 Washington 114.0 0 1
25 Texas A&M 113.8 1 0
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 0-0 1-0 119.2
Clemson 0-0 1-0 112.9
Boston College 0-0 1-0 108.9
Wake Forest 0-0 1-0 103.9
North Carolina State 0-0 1-0 98.3
Maryland 0-0 1-0 95.9
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Miami-FL 0-0 1-0 121.4
Virginia Tech 0-0 0-1 121.2
Georgia Tech 0-0 1-0 120.2
North Carolina 0-0 0-1 119.5
Virginia 0-0 1-0 95.6
Duke 0-0 1-0 95.0

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 0-0 1-0 112.6
Connecticut 0-0 0-1 111.1
Pittsburgh 0-0 0-1 110.0
Cincinnati 0-0 0-1 109.2
South Florida 0-0 1-0 106.5
Syracuse 0-0 1-0 101.9
Rutgers 0-0 1-0 96.8
Louisville 0-0 0-1 94.6

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 0-0 1-0 124.3
Iowa 0-0 1-0 120.1
Wisconsin 0-0 1-0 117.4
Penn State 0-0 1-0 109.9
Michigan 0-0 1-0 109.1
Michigan State 0-0 1-0 106.8
Minnesota 0-0 1-0 100.4
Purdue 0-0 0-1 99.4
Illinois 0-0 0-1 98.6
Northwestern 0-0 1-0 95.9
Indiana 0-0 1-0 92.0

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 0-0 1-0 120.3
Missouri 0-0 1-0 111.3
Colorado 0-0 1-0 105.5
Kansas 0-0 0-1 99.0
Kansas State 0-0 1-0 98.2
Iowa State 0-0 1-0 95.6
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 0-0 1-0 123.6
Texas 0-0 1-0 118.7
Texas A&M 0-0 1-0 113.8
Texas Tech 0-0 1-0 111.8
Baylor 0-0 1-0 103.3
Oklahoma State 0-0 1-0 102.4

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 0-0 1-0 94.7
Southern Mississippi 0-0 0-1 91.7
East Carolina 1-0 1-0 89.8
U A B 0-0 0-1 88.9
Marshall 0-0 0-1 88.7
Memphis 0-0 0-1 77.1
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 0-0 1-0 104.5
S M U 0-0 0-1 93.1
Tulsa 0-1 0-1 92.6
Rice 0-0 0-1 87.0
U T E P 0-0 1-0 82.0
Tulane 0-0 1-0 71.7

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   1-0 111.1
Navy   0-1 99.8
Army   1-0 83.5

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 0-0 1-0 91.0
Miami (O) 0-0 0-1 90.1
Kent St. 0-0 1-0 84.8
Ohio U 0-0 1-0 84.7
Buffalo 0-0 1-0 81.9
Bowling Green 0-0 0-1 78.5
Akron 0-0 0-1 77.7
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 0-0 0-1 89.3
Central Michigan 0-0 1-0 88.8
Ball State 0-0 1-0 81.4
Toledo 0-0 0-1 79.7
Western Michigan 0-0 0-1 77.6
Eastern Michigan 0-0 0-1 70.3

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 0-0 1-0 124.1
B Y U 0-0 1-0 104.8
Utah 0-0 1-0 104.5
Air Force 0-0 1-0 101.6
Wyoming 0-0 1-0 95.1
UNLV 0-0 0-1 93.7
S. D. State 0-0 1-0 93.1
Colo. State 0-0 0-1 85.8
New Mexico 0-0 0-1 79.1

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 0-0 1-0 128.4
Stanford 0-0 1-0 118.2
Arizona 0-0 1-0 116.8
Washington 0-0 0-1 114.0
Oregon St. 0-0 0-1 113.7
California 0-0 1-0 113.5
Southern Cal 0-0 1-0 110.1
U C L A 0-0 0-1 107.7
Arizona St. 0-0 1-0 99.3
Wash. St. 0-0 0-1 90.3

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 0-0 1-0 121.0
Florida 0-0 1-0 119.1
Georgia 0-0 1-0 116.7
Kentucky 0-0 1-0 102.4
Tennessee 0-0 1-0 102.3
Vanderbilt 0-0 0-1 95.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 0-0 1-0 126.4
Arkansas 0-0 1-0 125.2
Auburn 0-0 1-0 117.0
L S U 0-0 1-0 114.6
Mississippi State 0-0 1-0 111.4
Ole Miss 0-0 0-1 105.3

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Middle Tennessee 0-0 0-1 89.1
Troy 0-0 1-0 86.4
North Texas 0-0 0-1 82.5
U. of Louisiana 0-0 0-1 81.4
Florida Atlantic 0-0 1-0 79.7
Florida International 0-0 0-0 78.2
Arkansas State 0-0 0-1 77.7
Louisiana-Monroe 0-0 0-0 74.8
Western Kentucky 0-0 0-1 73.1

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 0-0 1-0 122.3
Nevada 0-0 1-0 102.6
Fresno State 0-0 1-0 101.1
Utah State 0-0 0-1 98.0
Louisiana Tech 0-0 1-0 96.2
Idaho 0-0 1-0 90.6
Hawaii 0-0 0-1 85.8
San Jose State 0-0 0-1 82.7
New Mexico State 0-0 0-0 78.4

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
Thursday, September 9      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Auburn MISSISSIPPI ST. 2.6 31-28
       
Friday, September 10      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
West Virginia MARSHALL 21.4 35-14
HOUSTON U t e p 25.5 49-23
       
Saturday, September 11      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
FLORIDA South Florida 16.1 30-14
KENTUCKY Western Ky. 32.3 42-10
EAST CAROLINA Memphis 16.2 35-19
WAKE FOREST Duke 11.4 35-24
OKLAHOMA ST. Troy 20.0 41-21
L s u VANDERBILT 16.2 26-10
WISCONSIN San Jose St. 38.7 42-3
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE Arkansas State 6.2 30-24
MICHIGAN ST. (Detroit) Florida Atlantic 30.6 45-14
Georgia Tech KANSAS 17.7 35-17
ARKANSAS (Little Rock) Louisiana Monroe 53.9 61-7
SOUTH CAROLINA Georgia 7.3 30-23
ARMY Hawaii 1.7 32-30
NEBRASKA Idaho 33.7 44-10
CALIFORNIA Colorado 11.5 28-16
BOSTON COLLEGE Kent State 28.1 42-14
MIAMI (OHIO) Eastern Michigan 22.8 35-12
OKLAHOMA Florida State 8.4 24-16
IOWA Iowa State 27.5 38-10
NOTRE DAME Michigan 5.5 34-28
OHIO STATE Miami (Fla) 6.9 20-13
UTAH U n l v 13.8 31-17
B y u AIR FORCE 0.2 31-31 to ot
OHIO U Toledo 7.5 31-23
TULSA Bowling Green 17.6 45-27
TEMPLE Central Michigan 5.7 27-21
BAYLOR Buffalo 25.4 35-10
TEXAS A&M Louisiana Tech 21.6 48-26
Rice NORTH TEXAS 2.0 30-28
TEXAS Wyoming 27.6 42-14
WASHINGTON Syracuse 16.6 34-17
ALABAMA Penn State 20.5 31-10
Oregon TENNESSEE 21.6 31-9
North Carolina St. CENTRAL FLORIDA 0.6 25-24
Rutgers FLORIDA INT’L 15.6 37-21
S M U U a b 7.7 38-30
San Diego State NEW MEXICO ST. 12.2 31-19
Texas Tech NEW MEXICO 30.2 42-12
Ole Miss TULANE 31.1 41-10
Stanford U C L A 7.0 31-24
SOUTHERN CAL Virginia 19.0 31-12
NEVADA Colorado State 19.8 44-24

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings
       
Thursday, September 2      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Auburn MISSISSIPPI ST. 28-28 to ot 31-27
       
Friday, September 10      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
West Virginia MARSHALL 33-21 34-17
HOUSTON U t e p 42-24 52-24
       
Saturday, September 11      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
FLORIDA South Florida 35-17 27-14
KENTUCKY Western Ky. 35-7 38-13
EAST CAROLINA Memphis 30-10 35-13
WAKE FOREST Duke 31-24 31-20
OKLAHOMA ST. Troy 36-24 45-27
L s u VANDERBILT 28-12 24-10
WISCONSIN San Jose St. 42-10 45-10
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE Arkansas State 30-28 34-24
MICHIGAN ST. (Detroit) Florida Atlantic 35-17 41-17
Georgia Tech KANSAS 26-14 30-14
ARKANSAS (Little Rock) Louisiana Monroe 41-14 59-10
SOUTH CAROLINA Georgia 21-20 17-20
ARMY Hawaii 26-28 29-28
NEBRASKA Idaho 35-13 41-10
CALIFORNIA Colorado 35-24 38-17
BOSTON COLLEGE Kent State 27-7 31-7
MIAMI (OHIO) Eastern Michigan 27-14 28-12
OKLAHOMA Florida State 31-21 31-21
IOWA Iowa State 28-14 33-14
NOTRE DAME Michigan 31-26 24-28
OHIO STATE Miami (Fla) 31-20 31-26
UTAH U n l v 40-18 30-13
AIR FORCE B y u 27-28 23-28
OHIO U Toledo 35-21 35-24
TULSA Bowling Green 41-35 41-27
TEMPLE Central Michigan 24-24 to ot 24-20
BAYLOR Buffalo 35-27 31-16
TEXAS A&M Louisiana Tech 38-27 48-24
Rice NORTH TEXAS 31-30 38-30
TEXAS Wyoming 42-14 45-13
WASHINGTON Syracuse 27-17 27-17
ALABAMA Penn State 24-12 27-10
Oregon TENNESSEE 30-21 35-14
CENTRAL FLORIDA North Carolina St. 28-23 24-21
Rutgers FLORIDA INT’L 34-17 34-14
S M U U a b 38-28 49-27
San Diego State NEW MEXICO ST. 33-24 35-13
Texas Tech NEW MEXICO 40-14 47-10
Ole Miss TULANE 38-17 34-20
Stanford U C L A 31-27 34-24
SOUTHERN CAL Virginia 41-25 38-17
NEVADA Colorado State 48-28 41-20

August 30, 2010

PiRate Ratings for College Football–September 2-6, 2010

Go to www.piratings.webs.com to purchase this week’s picks against the spread. Buy one week for $5 or the entire season for $75. We donate 10% of your purchase to help rebuild youth league football/soccer fields devastated by the May 1-2, 2010, flood in Nashville, Tennessee.

NCAA Top 25 August 30, 2010 Season
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Oregon 126.2 0 0
2 Alabama 126.1 0 0
3 Oklahoma 125.6 0 0
4 Arkansas 124.9 0 0
5 Ohio State 124.3 0 0
6 T C U 124.1 0 0
7 Virginia Tech 121.8 0 0
8 Boise State 121.7 0 0
9 South Carolina 121.6 0 0
10 Florida 121.4 0 0
11 North Carolina 121.1 0 0
12 Miami (Fla) 120.9 0 0
13 Nebraska 120.7 0 0
14 Georgia Tech 119.9 0 0
15 Iowa 119.8 0 0
16 Texas 119.3 0 0
17 Florida State 119.0 0 0
18 Stanford 117.9 0 0
19 Auburn 117.8 0 0
20 Wisconsin 117.0 0 0
21 Arizona 116.0 0 0
22 Washington 115.6 0 0
23 Georgia 115.5 0 0
24 Oregon State 113.7 0 0
25 Clemson 113.7 0 0
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 0-0 0-0 119.0
Clemson 0-0 0-0 113.7
Boston College 0-0 0-0 109.1
Wake Forest 0-0 0-0 103.6
North Carolina State 0-0 0-0 97.9
Maryland 0-0 0-0 95.7
Coastal Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 0-0 0-0 121.8
North Carolina 0-0 0-0 121.1
Miami-FL 0-0 0-0 120.9
Georgia Tech 0-0 0-0 119.9
Virginia 0-0 0-0 95.3
Duke 0-0 0-0 95.0
Big East Conference
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Connecticut 0-0 0-0 113.2
West Virginia 0-0 0-0 112.9
Cincinnati 0-0 0-0 110.8
Pittsburgh 0-0 0-0 110.5
South Florida 0-0 0-0 106.1
Syracuse 0-0 0-0 101.7
Rutgers 0-0 0-0 96.6
Louisville 0-0 0-0 95.1
Big Ten
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 0-0 0-0 124.3
Iowa 0-0 0-0 119.8
Wisconsin 0-0 0-0 117.0
Penn State 0-0 0-0 109.6
Michigan State 0-0 0-0 107.4
Michigan 0-0 0-0 106.3
Minnesota 0-0 0-0 100.7
Purdue 0-0 0-0 99.4
Illinois 0-0 0-0 98.3
Northwestern 0-0 0-0 95.7
Indiana 0-0 0-0 92.5
Big 12
North Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 0-0 0-0 120.7
Missouri 0-0 0-0 111.6
Colorado 0-0 0-0 105.5
Kansas 0-0 0-0 102.0
Kansas State 0-0 0-0 96.5
Iowa State 0-0 0-0 94.4
South Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 0-0 0-0 125.6
Texas 0-0 0-0 119.3
Texas A&M 0-0 0-0 113.5
Texas Tech 0-0 0-0 112.6
Baylor 0-0 0-0 103.7
Oklahoma State 0-0 0-0 99.8
Conference USA
East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 0-0 0-0 94.5
Southern Mississippi 0-0 0-0 91.1
U A B 0-0 0-0 90.4
East Carolina 0-0 0-0 89.6
Marshall 0-0 0-0 88.7
Memphis 0-0 0-0 77.7
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 0-0 0-0 104.3
Tulsa 0-0 0-0 92.8
S M U 0-0 0-0 92.3
Rice 0-0 0-0 86.4
U T E P 0-0 0-0 82.3
Tulane 0-0 0-0 72.2
Independents
Team Overall Rating
Notre Dame 0-0 111.1
Navy 0-0 100.0
Army 0-0 84.2
Mid American Conference
East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 0-0 0-0 91.0
Miami (O) 0-0 0-0 87.8
Kent St. 0-0 0-0 84.5
Ohio U 0-0 0-0 84.4
Buffalo 0-0 0-0 81.6
Bowling Green 0-0 0-0 78.0
Akron 0-0 0-0 77.9
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 0-0 0-0 90.5
Central Michigan 0-0 0-0 88.5
Ball State 0-0 0-0 81.7
Toledo 0-0 0-0 80.5
Western Michigan 0-0 0-0 77.0
Eastern Michigan 0-0 0-0 69.6
Mountain West Conference
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 0-0 0-0 124.1
Utah 0-0 0-0 104.0
B Y U 0-0 0-0 103.2
Air Force 0-0 0-0 102.0
Wyoming 0-0 0-0 95.6
UNLV 0-0 0-0 94.1
S. D. State 0-0 0-0 92.8
Colo. State 0-0 0-0 85.8
New Mexico 0-0 0-0 81.3
Pac-10 Conference
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 0-0 0-0 126.2
Stanford 0-0 0-0 117.9
Arizona 0-0 0-0 116.0
Washington 0-0 0-0 115.6
Oregon St. 0-0 0-0 113.7
California 0-0 0-0 112.5
Southern Cal 0-0 0-0 110.9
U C L A 0-0 0-0 109.4
Arizona St. 0-0 0-0 99.0
Wash. St. 0-0 0-0 92.9
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 0-0 0-0 121.6
Florida 0-0 0-0 121.4
Georgia 0-0 0-0 115.5
Tennessee 0-0 0-0 101.9
Kentucky 0-0 0-0 101.9
Vanderbilt 0-0 0-0 96.1
West Division
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 0-0 0-0 126.1
Arkansas 0-0 0-0 124.9
Auburn 0-0 0-0 117.8
L S U 0-0 0-0 113.0
Mississippi State 0-0 0-0 110.8
Ole Miss 0-0 0-0 108.3
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Middle Tennessee 0-0 0-0 88.8
Troy 0-0 0-0 86.9
U. of Louisiana 0-0 0-0 82.6
North Texas 0-0 0-0 81.7
Florida International 0-0 0-0 78.2
Florida Atlantic 0-0 0-0 78.1
Arkansas State 0-0 0-0 76.9
Louisiana-Monroe 0-0 0-0 74.8
Western Kentucky 0-0 0-0 72.7
Western Athletic Conference
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 0-0 0-0 121.7
Nevada 0-0 0-0 102.6
Fresno State 0-0 0-0 99.6
Louisiana Tech 0-0 0-0 96.5
Utah State 0-0 0-0 95.3
Idaho 0-0 0-0 90.3
Hawaii 0-0 0-0 85.0
San Jose State 0-0 0-0 82.7
New Mexico State 0-0 0-0 78.4
This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)
Thursday, September 2
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
OHIO STATE Marshall 39.6 42-3
Minnesota MIDDLE TENNESSEE 8.9 33-24
SOUTH CAROLINA Southern Miss. 34.5 45-10
U A B Florida Atlantic 14.3 31-17
IOWA STATE Northern Illinois 6.9 24-17
Pittsburgh UTAH 2.5 24-22
Southern Cal HAWAII 22.9 33-10
Friday, September 3
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Arizona TOLEDO 31.5 52-21
Saturday, September 4
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
FLORIDA Miami (O) 38.6 45-6
MICHIGAN STATE Western Michigan 33.4 40-7
GEORGIA UL-Lafayette 36.9 40-3
Missouri (n) Illinois 13.3 37-24
Colorado (n) Colorado State 19.7 34-14
NOTRE DAME Purdue 14.7 35-20
Kentucky LOUISVILLE 3.8 21-17
Connecticut MICHIGAN 2.9 27-24
CLEMSON North Texas 37.0 44-7
Texas RICE 30.9 41-10
U c l a KANSAS STATE 9.9 30-20
OREGON New Mexico 48.9 63-14
Syracuse AKRON 21.8 35-13
AUBURN Arkansas State 44.9 45-0
NEBRASKA Western Kentucky 52.0 52-0
OKLAHOMA STATE Washington St. 10.9 28-17
OKLAHOMA Utah State 34.3 41-7
ALABAMA San Jose St. 48.4 55-7
MISSISSIPPI STATE Memphis 36.1 49-13
Army EASTERN MICHIGAN 12.6 27-14
TROY Bowling Green 11.9 35-23
Washington B Y U 9.4 37-28
VANDERBILT Northwestern 2.4 16-14
T c u (n) Oregon State 11.4 24-13
North Carolina (n) L s u 8.1 17-9
Cincinnati FRESNO STATE 7.2 31-24
Wisconsin U N L V 18.9 38-19
Sunday, September 5
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Tulsa EAST CAROLINA 0.2 31-31 to ot
TEXAS TECH S m u 23.3 42-19
Monday, September 6
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Navy (n) Maryland 4.3 31-27
Virginia Tech (n) Boise State 2.1 26-24
This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings
Thursday, September 2
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
OHIO STATE Marshall 35-10 38-10
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Minnesota 27-21 21-28
SOUTH CAROLINA Southern Miss. 28-17 34-17
U A B Florida Atlantic 31-24 34-24
IOWA STATE Northern Illinois 24-17 27-21
UTAH Pittsburgh 21-23 27-24
Southern Cal HAWAII 35-17 35-14
Friday, September 3
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Arizona TOLEDO 35-17 35-21
Saturday, September 4
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
FLORIDA Miami (O) 44-3 45-6
MICHIGAN STATE Western Michigan 27-10 31-14
GEORGIA UL-Lafayette 41-14 41-13
Missouri (n) Illinois 35-24 34-22
Colorado (n) Colorado State 31-21 35-24
NOTRE DAME Purdue 31-21 30-24
Kentucky LOUISVILLE 21-13 20-17
Connecticut MICHIGAN 27-20 23-28
CLEMSON North Texas 45-14 38-14
Texas RICE 44-10 49-14
U c l a KANSAS STATE 28-27 24-27
OREGON New Mexico 42-6 48-10
Syracuse AKRON 21-13 20-10
AUBURN Arkansas State 38-10 41-10
NEBRASKA Western Kentucky 41-0 42-7
OKLAHOMA STATE Washington St. 34-7 37-17
OKLAHOMA Utah State 41-10 45-12
ALABAMA San Jose St. 45-0 45-3
MISSISSIPPI STATE Memphis 31-10 34-18
Army EASTERN MICHIGAN 21-13 21-10
TROY Bowling Green 31-21 34-23
B Y U Washington 38-27 24-30
Northwestern VANDERBILT 14-9 17-7
T c u (n) Oregon State 26-14 28-14
L s u (n) North Carolina 17-13 16-10
Cincinnati FRESNO STATE 27-17 20-24
Wisconsin U N L V 35-20 38-17
Sunday, September 5
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
EAST CAROLINA Tulsa 38-28 27-37
TEXAS TECH S m u 40-21 38-22
Monday, September 6
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Navy (n) Maryland 31-21 27-23
Boise State (n) Virginia Tech 28-26 27-24

August 10, 2010

2010 Sunbelt Conference Preview

2010 Sunbelt Conference Preview

Two teams have dominated this league since its inception as a football conference.  In the early years, North Texas repeatedly won conference championship after championship.  In recent years, Troy has dominated the league, while North Texas has fallen on rough times.

2010 could be a year of change.  Middle Tennessee has played second fiddle in this league for most of their existence as a Division 1-A (FBS) participant.  The Blue Raiders have been to two bowls as the conference runner-up.  With a load of talent returning from a 10-win season that included a bowl victory, Coach Rick Stockstill’s squad could be poised to become the new dominant team in the SBC.

As for Troy, this could be a small blip for the Trojans, as they face a major rebuilding season.  Troy graduated quarterback Levi Brown who threw for over 4,000 last year, and the Trojans lost six of their top seven tacklers.

Former conference power North Texas could be on the rise again.  With all-SBC running back Lance Dunbar returning (1,378 yards rushing), the top six pass catchers (includes Dunbar), and most of the two-deep in the offensive line, the Mean Green will post much better offensive numbers.  They scored 27 points per game last year, so that number could rise to 30+ this year.  A weak defense will prevent North Texas from winning the conference championship.

The Sunbelt is guaranteed two teams in bowl games once again this season.  With the two more teams getting bowl bids this year (addition of two bowls and elimination of one bowl), there is a chance a third team could receive an invitation, as other conferences fail to provide their allotted quota of teams to contracted bowl games.  Four teams could potentially reach seven or more wins this season, as the league appears to have great balance in the middle.  The fly in the ointment: except for Middle Tennessee, the rest of the league will all win zero or one of their non-conference games.

Note: The PiRate Ratings are not meant to be used to predict the outcome of future games.  They are usable only as a basis for the current week’s games.  We do not use these ratings to make our selections.  They are only a starting point.  The predictions given below, as for every college conference and NFL division, are not taken from the ratings themselves.

Predictions

Pos. Team Conf. Overall
1 Middle Tennessee 7-1 10-2
2 North Texas 6-2 7-5
3 Troy 5-3 6-6
4 Florida Atlantic 5-3 5-7
5 Louisiana 5-3 5-7
6 Arkansas State 3-5 3-9
7 Florida International 3-5 3-9
8 Western Kentucky 2-6 2-10
9 La.-Monroe 0-8 1-11

 

G M A C Bowl: Middle Tennessee

New Orleans Bowl: North Texas

 

The Sunbelt Conference gets priority for filling a vacant spot in the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl if there is a third team with seven wins.

 

The Sunbelt is also a backup for the St. Petersburg Bowl and a second tier backup for the Papa John’s Bowl.

 

Team By Team Breakdown

 

Team Arkansas State Red Wolves
               
Head Coach Steve Roberts
               
Colors Scarlet and Black
               
City Jonesboro, AK
               
2009 Record              
Conference 3-5
Overall 4-8
               
PiRate Rating 76.9
               
National Rank 116

 

Offense: The Red Wolves lost five of their six starting skill position players.  New quarterback Ryan Applin could top the production of last year’s starter Cory Leonard, but Leonard only threw for 1,416 yards and seven TDs.  Applin’s shoulder will be a concern early after undergoing surgery in the spring.

Tight end Kedric Murry is the lone returning skill starter.  He caught just seven passes a year ago, so the receiving corps will be noticeably weaker.  At running back, 2009 top rusher Reggie Arnold is gone, but Derek Lawson should equal or top Arnold’s production this year.

The strength of this team is its offensive line.  Rarely does a Sunbelt team return an experienced two-deep unit like this year’s ASU OL.  They will open holes for the backs and give Applin plenty of time.

Even with all the new skill position players, we see Arkansas State’s offense faring better in 2010 than in 2009 when they averaged 23 points and 329 yards per game.  Look for 25-28 points and 350 yards per game.

Defense: The Red Wolves have fielded respectable defenses for the last five seasons, but ASU’s defensive line has been decimated due to graduation.  Even though the top four tacklers return, two of those four are defensive backs.  Gone is all-SBC end Alex Carrington and his 14 ½ tackles behind the line of scrimmage. 

ASU also lost their two starting cornerbacks and their nickel back.  The Red Wolves gave up 219 yards per game through the air and 61% completions, and that number could be worse this season.

We see ASU yielding 27-32 points per game and 350-380 total yards per game.

Schedule: Games at Auburn, Indiana, and Navy are not winnable.  A  homecoming game with Louisville could determine whether ASU can top last year’s four win total.  They get the two weakest conference foes at home, so three wins is about what to expect.  You can expect a coaching change in Jonesboro if three is all there is.

Team Florida Atlantic Owls
               
Head Coach Howard Schnellenberger
               
Colors Red, White, and Blue
               
City Boca Raton, FL
               
2009 Record              
Conference 5-3
Overall 5-7
               
PiRate Rating 78.1
               
National Rank 111

 

Offense: FAU had an explosive offense that scored more than 27 points per game and gained more than 430 yards per game last year, but the Owls still finished with a losing season due to a weak defense.  This year, the offense will be noticeably weaker.  Only two full-time starters return on offense, and neither one is a quarterback or offensive lineman. 

Quarterback Jeff Van Camp started five games last year, and the Owls won three of those starts.  He averaged a very respectable 7.5 yards per attempt, but you can expect that number to fall this year.  With an entirely new offensive line and only one of the top six receivers from 2009 returning, FAU’s passing game will suffer, falling from 280 yards per game to as low as 180 this year.

The one bright spot on offense is the return of running back Alfred Morris.  Morris rushed for almost 1,400 yards and 11 scored last year, but those numbers will drop as well.

Look for FAU’s offense to ground to just 20-23 points per game and 300-330 total yards.

Defense: As much as the offense regresses this year, the defense could show signs of great progress this year.  The defensive line suffered some late losses in depth, but three starters (two juniors and a senior) return up front, including potential all-league end Kevin Cyrille.  Cyrille registered 11 ½ stops behind the line last year.

The back seven was as weak as the front four last year, but the good news is they can only improve.  FAU gave up 233 passing yards at a better than 67% completion rate for enemy quarterbacks.  The only reason the passing yardage number wasn’t 300+ per game is that the Owls gave up more than six yards per rushing attempt. 

We see the Owls giving up about 28 points and 400 yards per game this year, which unfortunately would be a vast improvement over last season.

Schedule: The Owls have just four home games this year, as well as a very tough out-of-conference slate.  FAU plays at UAB, Michigan State, South Florida, and Texas and should lose all four games.  They don’t face the league’s two best teams until after Thanksgiving, but those games will come back-to-back following the trip to face the Longhorns. 

Florida Atlantic could challenge for bowl eligibility, but they would have to pull off an upset at UAB and beat all six of the SBC teams they face before Thanksgiving.  We see them winning five of those first six league games, but that will lead to a repeat of last year’s 5-7 season.

Team Florida International Panthers
               
Head Coach Mario Cristobal
               
Colors Blue and Gold
               
City Miami, FL
               
2009 Record              
Conference 3-5
Overall 3-9
               
PiRate Rating 78.2
               
National Rank 110

 

Offense: The Golden Panthers have improved in total yardage for four consecutive seasons, and this year should make it five in a row.  Former Mississippi State starting quarterback Wesley Carroll takes over behind center.  Carroll was Miss. State’s starting quarterback in 2007 when the Bulldogs went to a bowl.

Carroll has a full house of returning receiver talent, as the top eight pass catchers return, including breakaway threat Greg Ellingson and possession receiver T.Y. Hilton.

FIU has never been a rushing power, averaging just 100 yards per game the last five years.  Syracuse transfer Jeremiah Harden will team with Darriet Perry to form the best tandem the Panthers have had.

The offensive line has some rebuilding to do, but the drop off shouldn’t be much.

We see FIU scoring 25 points per game and gaining about 340 yards per game this year.

Defense: This has been FIU’s Achilles heel since the program was established in 2002.  The Golden Panthers yielded 35+ points and almost 500 yards per game in 2009, and those numbers will not improve by much if any this year.

Up front, the line was decimated by graduation losses.  FIU couldn’t stop the run last year, giving up 230+ rushing yards per game, and opponents could match or better that this year.

While most of the leading players in the back seven return, it is misleading to think having these top tacklers returning will lead to much better defensive production.  These players made a lot of tackles because they did not prevent many passes from being completed.  One player who did contribute in the pass defense was cornerback Anthony Gaitor.  Gaitor knocked away seven passes and picked off two others.

We look for marginal improvement on this side of the ball, about 30-32 points per game and 430-450 yards per game.

Schedule: This is a killer schedule, and it will prevent FIU from breaking through with a winning season.  FIU will start 0-4 after facing Rutgers, Texas A&M, Maryland, and Pittsburgh, the latter three on the road.  Home games with the two weakest teams give them a slim chance at breaking even in the league, but it looks more like a repeat of last year—three wins.

Team Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
               
Head Coach Rickey Bustle
               
Colors Vermillion and White
               
City Lafayette, LA
               
2009 Record              
Conference 4-4
Overall 6-6
               
PiRate Rating 82.6
               
National Rank 102

 

Offense: The Ragin’ Cajuns always seem to do just enough on offense to stay competitive in conference games without ever looking flashy or producing gaudy statistics.  Last year, ULL scored just 22.2 points per game, which paved the way for four of their six wins being by four points or less.

Quarterback Chris Masson won’t win any all-league honors, but he won’t hurt his team’s chances either.  He should pass for about 200-240 yards per game and complete close to 60% of his tosses.

Masson has a couple of quality receivers to pass to, namely tight end Ladarius Green and wide out Marlin Miller.  At 6-6, Green is an inviting target.  He could be playing for pay in 2012.

The Ragin’ Cajuns used to be a predominately running team, but they only averaged 137 yards per game last year.  2010 should see similar results.

The offensive line lost three starters to graduation, but the entire second five returns.  There should be little or no drop in production this year.

Louisiana should average about 23-26 points and 375-400 yards per game this year.

Defense: This is where great progress must be made if ULL is to contend for a bowl bid this year.  The last three years have been poor for the stop troops in Lafayette.  ULL has given up more than 30 points and 400 yards all three seasons.  Things are looking up in 2010.  The improvement may be subtle due to a schedule that has them playing two SEC opponents, but the Cajuns will be tougher on this side of the ball.

The front seven should see the bulk of the improvement, as opponents will find it harder to run the ball, and quarterbacks will see more pressure than they have the last three seasons.

Schedule: Yet another team that will more than likely lose all four non-conference games, Louisiana faces a tough slate of opponents.  It starts with a visit between the hedges to face Georgia.  A Friday night home game with Oklahoma State will give the Cajuns a chance to pull off a big upset.  Road games in consecutive weeks at Ohio U and Ole Miss should produce two rough losses.  ULL gets a week off prior to hosting Middle Tennessee, and this could be the upset of the year in the Sunbelt.

The Ragin’ Cajuns have enough talent to threaten in the league if 6-2 is good enough to win the conference.  We think they will fall short by just a bit.  5-3 will lead to a 5-7 mark overall unless ULL can upset Oklahoma State.

Team Louisiana Monroe Warhawks
               
Head Coach Todd Berry
               
Colors Red and Gold
               
City Monroe, LA
               
2009 Record              
Conference 5-3
Overall 6-6
               
PiRate Rating 74.8
               
National Rank 117

 

Offense: UL-Monroe fired former Navy coach Charlie Weatherbie and hired former Army coach Todd Berry.  Expect a drop from a typical Navy season to a typical Army season.  Don’t blame it on Berry; blame it on a loss of talent.

On the offensive side of the ball, ULM has enough talent to move the ball on the middle of the pack and weaker conference defenses.  It starts in the running game, where Frank Goodin returns to tote the pigskin.  Goodin rushed for 1,126 yards and 13 scores last year, while topping five yards per carry.

Quarterback Trey Revell returns after tossing for 1,739 yards and 12 touchdowns, but the four hands that caught 78 of his passes and nine of those scores are gone.  Throw in an inexperienced offensive line, and the passing game will suffer this year.

Look for about 175 rushing yards and 175 passing yards for 21-25 points per game.

Defense: Only four starters return on this side of the ball.  The Warhawks were a competent defensive team last year, but that is going to change.  Three of the four linebackers (actually ULM used a 3-3-5, but the Hawk back was more of a linebacker) from last year are gone, and two of the three starters in the trenches are gone as well.

The two returning defensive backs are among the best in the league, but they may be called on to stop more running plays this year.  Darius Prelow and Nate Brown combined for 18 passes batted away last year.

We look for ULM to give up 400+ total yards and 30-35 points per game this year.

Schedule: The Warhawks have a winnable game out of the league this year, as they host FCS rival Southeast Louisiana.  Who do they play in the other three games?  How about Arkansas, Auburn, and LSU, all on the road?  Because they must face Western Kentucky in Bowling Green, we do not see ULM winning a conference game this season.  1-11 looks possible.

Team Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
               
Head Coach Rick Stockstill
               
Colors Blue and Gray
               
City Murfreesboro, TN
               
2009 Record              
Conference 7-1
Overall 10-3
               
PiRate Rating 88.8
               
National Rank 90

 

Offense: The Blue Raiders appear to be the class of the league this year thanks to a dominant offense that could threaten 40 points per game this year.  Middle is coming off its first 10-win season and bowl victory since moving up to the big time.

Quarterback Dwight Dasher may be too small to become a legitimate NFL prospect, but he could be a star in the Canadian Football League.  Last year, the 5-10 speedster gained more than 1,150 yards rushing with 13 touchdowns, while passing for almost 2,800 yards and 23 more touchdowns!

Dasher has one of the league’s best set of receivers.  Garrett Andrews is a threat to go the distance on any catch.  Three newcomers could contribute immediately.

As if those riches weren’t enough, The Blue Raiders have two backs besides Dasher capable of rushing for 100+ yards in a game.  Phillip Tanner and D.D. Kyles could combine with Dasher to rush for 225-250 yards per game.

The offensive line returns four of five starters.  Expect the sacks allowed total to drop from 19 to as low as 10 this year.

MTSU is capable of topping 40 points and 500 yards per game this season, and we expect at least 35 points and 450 yards.

Defense: Middle Tennessee’s defense won’t get much credit, but if the Blue Raiders are to win their first SBC title this year, the defense will have to continue to shine in anonymity.  This side has yielded about 24 points and 350 yards per game the last two years, and they could be poised to kick it up a notch in 2010.

The defensive front seven is a small concern this season, and if the Blue Raiders fail to take the league title, and they aren’t torn apart by numerous injuries, it will be the lack of pass rush and coverage in the short zones that may do them in.

The secondary is the class of the league, and in a league known for its passing, that is important.  Rod Issac, Kevin Brown, and Jeremy Kellem teamed up to intercept seven passes and knock down 15 others.

Schedule: The Blue Raiders have the best non-conference schedule in the Sunbelt Conference.  An opening game at home on Thursday night against a beatable Minnesota team precedes a breather against former Ohio Valley Conference rival Austin Peay.  A visit to a weak Memphis team the week after could leave the Blue Raiders at 3-0 and poised to crack the Top 25.  The final non-league tilt comes in October against Georgia Tech.  MTSU hosts Troy on October 5, and the winner of that game should take the conference flag.  A September 25 visit to Lafayette to take on Louisiana could be a big trap game.  If they can win that game and knock off Troy, then the Yellow Jackets could be all that stops the Blue Raiders from running the table.

Team North Texas Mean Green
               
Head Coach Todd Dodge
               
Colors Green and White
               
City Denton, TX
               
2009 Record              
Conference 1-7
Overall 2-10
               
PiRate Rating 81.7
               
National Rank 105

 

Offense: The Mean Green scored 27 points per game last year, but they only won twice.  Expect both numbers to head north this season as this team returns a lot of talent.  Last year’s starting quarterback, Riley Dodge (son of the coach), returns.  However, he suffered a shoulder injury and has been moved to a wide out position.  Dodge is a true athlete, so it wouldn’t surprise us if he caught 50 passes this season and still see a few snaps at his old position.

Nathan Tune and Derek Thompson will vie for the starting quarterback job.  Tune saw considerable action last year, while Thompson was forced to burn a redshirt in the middle of the final game last year.  Neither can run the ball the way Dodge did, but both can hum the ball down the field.

Whoever is throwing the ball will have the conference’s elite group of receivers.  Besides Dodge, Oklahoma transfer Tyler Stradford joins the squad that returns its top six pass catchers from 2009.

Those receivers will find the going easier than normal because defenses will have to stop the running game first.  North Texas returns the league’s number two rusher in Lance Dunbar, who gained 1,378 yards and scored 17 touchdowns last season.

Making this offense lethal this year is a very experienced and capable offensive line featuring tackle Esteban Santiago.

We believe North Texas will average better than 30 points and 425 yards per game this year, and they could top 200 yards rushing and passing in more than half their games.

Defense: Normally, when a team surrenders 36 points per game, it would be considered pathetic.  However, in Denton last year, this represented a 12-point improvement over the year before.  Expect another 12-point improvement this year.

The defensive line is in much better shape this year with three starters returning up front.  End Brandon Akpunku recorded six sacks and 5 ½ other tackles for loss.  The second four provide excellent depth here with three upperclassmen backing up the starters.

The second line of defense features a potential All-SBC linebacker in Craig Robertson.  Robertson led the Mean Green in tackles last season, but he will need to make more of those closer to the line of scrimmage this year if UNT expects to contend for the conference championship.

This should be the best secondary in Denton in years.  With a better pass rush, look for the back unit to defend more passes. 

We believe North Texas will chop another 8-12 points off their defensive yield and give up about 24-28 points and 375 yards per game.

Schedule: North Texas has a chance to win two or three of their non-conference games, but it isn’t a given.  A home game with Rice on September 11 and a visit to Army the following week will determine if the Mean Green will go to a bowl this season.  An opener at Clemson could be ugly.  The season finale is at home with a Kansas State squad that could need one win to become bowl-eligible.  Kansas State lost to Louisiana in Lafayette last year.

In the conference, North Texas hosts Troy and plays at Middle Tennessee in back-to-back weeks at the start of November.  We think they will split those games.  If they can win at Florida Atlantic, they have a chance to sneak through and win or share for the Sunbelt title as the surprise team.  Even if they fall short, we think the Mean Green will play a 13th game in December.

Team Troy Trojans
               
Head Coach Larry Blakeney
               
Colors Red and Gray
               
City Troy, AL
               
2009 Record              
Conference 8-0
Overall 9-4
               
PiRate Rating 86.9
               
National Rank 94

 

Offense: How do you replace the best quarterback in school history?  Levi Brown completed 64% of his passes for 4,254 yards last year.  New quarterback Jamie Hampton has six career starts under his belt, so he isn’t entirely raw.

Hampton has the league’s best returning trio of receivers.  Jerrel Jernigan, Tebarius Gill, and Chip Reeves teamed for 140 catches and 2,045 yards, with Jernigan accounting for better than half of that amount.

Troy used a running back by committee approach last year, but starter DuJuan Harris is capable of rushing for 1,000 yards if he returns to his 2008 form.

The offensive line returns three starters, and the two new starters are experienced upperclassmen. 

Troy averaged 34 points and 486 yards per game last year.  Expect a drop in those gaudy numbers, but the Trojans will still be a potent offensive machine.  28 points and 400 yards would still lead to a good season.

Defense: Welcome to troubles!  Troy was decimated by graduation losses on this side of the ball.  Six of the top seven tacklers are gone including three defensive linemen who are on NFL preseason rosters.

Four new DL starters will be in the trenches, and even though Coach Blakeney has recruited well, this quartet will not come close to matching last year’s numbers of 138 rushing yards allowed and 33 sacks.

Two linebackers have moved on, leaving Daniel Sheffield as the lone returnee in the front seven.  New middle linebacker Xavier Lamb should emerge as the leading tackler this year.

The last line of defense returns two starters, including the best pass defender in the league.  Cover corner Bryan Willis is a shutdown defender, but we don’t believe he will match last year’s total of 4 interceptions and 12 knockdowns.  Passers will have an extra half-second or more to locate open receivers on most plays.

Troy gave up 30 points and 425 yards per game last year, and those numbers will be worse this year.  Look for 35 points and 450 yards out of this rebuilding defense.

Schedule: Road games at South Carolina and Oklahoma State are sure losses.  A home game with Bowling Green is very winnable.  A trip to UAB on September 18 could determine whether Troy can get to seven victories and earn a bowl bid.  Middle Tennessee hosts Troy on Tuesday, October 5, in a nationally televised game.  We expect the Blue Raiders to exact revenge on the Trojans and end their reign of supremacy.  A road game at Florida Atlantic on December 4 could be a must-win game for bowl-eligibility and a possible third bid from the league. 

Team Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
               
Head Coach Willie Taggart
               
Colors Red and White
               
City Bowling Green, KY
               
2009 Record              
Conference 0-8
Overall 0-12
               
PiRate Rating 72.7
               
National Rank 118

 

Offense: Things are looking up for the Hilltoppers this year, but when you go 0-12, things can’t look much worse.  New coach Willie Taggart comes from Stanford, and he will install a pro-style offense using 1st team All-SBC running back Bobby Rainey the same way Toby Gerhart was used in Palo Alto.  Expect Rainey to get 300 rushing attempts this year, if WKU can stay in games and not have to resort to throwing the ball 85% of the time in the second half.  Rainey could easily lead the nation in rushing if he gets 300 attempts.

Sophomore quarterback Kawaun Jakes did a lot of running himself last year—running for his life after a helpless group of pass blockers played like matadors.  Jakes has the potential to be the third best passer in the league if he gets just average protection up front.

Unfortunately, Jakes has little in talent on the other end of his passes.  The seven returning receivers from last year all failed to average 10 yards per catch.  A lot of that had to do with Jakes having to throw quickly to avoid the rush, but yards after the catch is not where this group excels.

The aforementioned offensive line will make strides toward improvement, but don’t expect a major transformation.  If they can allow 10 fewer sacks, WKU will move the ball and eat the clock this year.

Western scored 20 points per game last year and 25 in league play.  Expect the ‘Toppers to approach 24-26 points and 350-375 yards this year.  The big plus will be a ball-controlled rushing game that is capable of reducing total plays per game by as much as 10

Defense: WKU surrendered 40 points and almost 480 yards per game last year, and even with nominal improvement on this side of the ball, we expect the offense to keep this unit on the sidelines for a couple minutes more per game this year.

Taggart will switch Western to a 4-3 defense this year, and the new DL should improve on the 245 rushing yards allowed.   All players who contributed significantly last year in the two-deep return this season.

The second line of defense welcomes back all three of its four top players, and the trio of returning starters should be much improved this year.  Thomas Majors could earn 1st team all-conference honors.

The back line of defense was the weakest in all of FBS football last year, giving up 67.8% completions and 28 touchdowns!  Three starters return, and this unit must improve some, but it will still be a major liability.

We expect WKU to chip off as much as a touchdown from the points allowed this year, but 33-35 points per game is still too much for the Hilltoppers to turn things around.

Schedule: WKU has guaranteed themselves an 0-4 start prior to getting a week off on October 2.  The Hilltoppers open at Nebraska, at Kentucky, home versus Indiana, and at South Florida.  They will be banged up and need that week off before starting conference play.  Their first two conference games come at FIU and home with ULM.  If they don’t win one of those two games, it could lead to a repeat 0-12 season.  We think they will win one of those games and maybe pick up another upset in the second half.  2-10 would be a beginning toward becoming competitive in the future.

Coming Tomorrow: The Mid-American Conference Preview.  Will the Owls fly high in the MAC sky?

December 7, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–Regular Season Final

NCAA 2009 College Football Playoff Simulation

The Playoffs You Wished For 

Welcome to season number three of the NCAA College Football Playoff Simulation.  For those reading this blog for the first time, the PiRate College Football Playoffs take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC as automatic qualifiers.  Any of the remaining conference champions (including the top independent) that finish in the top 16 in the final regular season BCS Standings also qualify automatically.  At-large teams are then selected in the order of BCS finish until 12 total teams have been selected.  The 12 teams are then seeded by BCS ranking with no maximum number of teams per conference.

 

Here is how the 12 teams were selected for the 2009 playoffs.

 

Top Six Conference Champions

ACC–Georgia Tech 11-2           #9 Seed

Big East–Cincinnati 12-0                   #3 Seed

Big Ten–Ohio State 10-2         #8 Seed

Big 12—Texas 13-0                    #2 Seed

Pac-10—Oregon 10-2                #7 Seed

SEC—Alabama 13-0                             #1 Seed

 

Automatic Qualifiers By Virtue Of Top 16 In BCS

MWC—T C U 12-0                       #4 Seed

WAC—Boise State 13-0             #6 Seed

 

Top Four At-Large To Fill Out 12-Team Field

Florida 12-1                                 #5 Seed

Iowa 10-2                                    #10 Seed

Virginia Tech 10-2                     #11 Seed

L S U 9-3                                      #12 Seed

 

The PiRate Playoff System uses the top 11 bowl games to play the four rounds.  The 5th through 12th seeds must play in the first round, while the top four seeds receive byes to the quarterfinals.

Opening Round

 

Outback Bowl    #5 Florida vs. #12 L S U  Dec 17

Alamo Bowl       #6 Boise State vs. #11 Virginia Tech  Dec 18

Holiday Bowl     #7 Oregon vs. #10 Iowa  Dec 19

Gator Bowl         #8 Ohio State vs. #9 Georgia Tech  Dec 19

 

Quarterfinal Round

 

Cotton Bowl                #4 T C U vs. Outback Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Capital One Bowl       #3 Cincinnati vs. Alamo Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Rose Bowl                             #2 Texas vs. Holiday Bowl Winner  Jan 1

Sugar Bowl                  #1 Alabama vs. Gator Bowl Winner  Jan 1

 

Semifinal Round

 

Fiesta Bowl        Sugar Bowl Winner vs. Fiesta Bowl Winner Jan 9

Orange Bowl     Rose Bowl Winner vs. Capital One Bowl Winner Jan 9

 

National Championship Game

 

Fiesta Bowl Winner vs. Orange Bowl Winner  Jan 23

 

1. This system awards the four best teams with byes.

2. This system not only keeps the bowls alive, but it gives them more importance and prestige, as 11 bowls decide the title.

3. Instead of undefeated Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State getting left out of the national championship picture, number 13 Penn State is the first team left out.  This is much more fair, as this system will always allow a 12-0 team to have a chance regardless of whether it is Alabama or Boise State.

4. The remaining bowls would not have to settle for 6-6 teams.  The rules could demand at least 7 wins as a minimum.

5. Three of the four rounds would occur during winter break for the schools, thus quashing the myth that players would miss too much time.

 

Check back on December 20 for simulated results of the first round games.

 

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

 

The Army-Navy game must still be played, but that game doesn’t warrant an extra week’s worth of ratings.  Neither team can break the top 25 even if they win 222-0.  The game still has bowl implications.  If Army wins, the Cadets will advance to the Eagle Bank Bowl to face Temple.  If Navy wins, then UCLA takes Army’s place in Washington, DC.

NCAA Top 25 For December 7, 2009
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Alabama 133.0 13 0
2 Texas 131.4 12 0
3 Florida 128.2 12 1
4 T C U 125.4 12 0
5 Oklahoma 124.0 7 5
6 Boise State 120.9 12 0
7 Virginia Tech 120.5 9 3
8 Oregon 119.8 10 2
9 Georgia Tech 119.4 11 2
10 Nebraska 118.8 9 4
11 Texas Tech 117.9 8 4
12 Penn State 117.7 10 2
13 Ohio State 117.6 10 2
14 Miami (Fla) 117.4 9 3
15 Stanford 116.9 8 4
16 Arkansas 115.5 7 5
17 Southern Cal 115.1 8 4
18 Cincinnati 114.9 12 0
19 Iowa 114.8 10 2
20 Arizona 114.0 8 4
21 Oklahoma State 113.9 9 3
22 Pittsburgh 113.7 9 3
23 Ole Miss 113.2 8 4
24 L  S  U 112.5 9 3
25 Oregon State 112.0 8 4
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Clemson 6-2 8-5 111.7
Florida State 4-4 6-6 107.6
Boston College 5-3 8-4 107.1
Wake Forest 3-5 5-7 104.8
North Carolina State 2-6 5-7 102.7
Maryland 1-7 2-10 93.0
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 6-2 9-3 120.5
Georgia Tech 7-1 11-2 119.4
Miami-FL 5-3 9-3 117.4
North Carolina 4-4 8-4 110.9
Duke 3-5 5-7 98.4
Virginia 2-6 3-9 94.8

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Cincinnati 8-0 12-0 114.9
Pittsburgh 5-2 9-3 113.7
West Virginia 5-2 9-3 106.0
Connecticut 3-4 7-5 105.8
Rutgers 3-4 8-4 102.1
South Florida 3-4 7-5 101.8
Syracuse 1-6 4-8 93.9
Louisville 1-6 4-8 90.5

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Penn State 6-2 10-2 117.7
Ohio State 7-1 10-2 117.6
Iowa 6-2 10-2 114.8
Wisconsin 5-3 9-3 108.5
Michigan State 4-4 6-6 101.5
Northwestern 5-3 8-4 99.3
Purdue 4-4 5-7 99.0
Minnesota 3-5 6-6 97.9
Michigan 1-7 5-7 96.6
Illinois 2-6 3-9 96.0
Indiana 1-7 4-8 90.9

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 6-2 9-4 118.9
Missouri 4-4 8-4 104.8
Kansas 1-7 5-7 103.9
Kansas State 4-4 6-6 99.4
Colorado 2-6 3-9 97.4
Iowa State 3-5 6-6 94.9
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Texas 8-0 13-0 131.4
Oklahoma 5-3 7-5 124.0
Texas Tech 5-3 8-4 117.9
Oklahoma State 6-2 9-3 113.9
Texas A&M 3-5 6-6 103.4
Baylor 1-7 4-8 96.6

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
East Carolina 7-1 9-4 105.2
Central Florida 6-2 8-4 104.1
Southern Mississippi 5-3 7-5 100.9
Marshall 4-4 6-6 92.4
U A B 4-4 5-7 91.0
Memphis 1-7 2-10 83.4
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 6-2 10-3 107.4
Tulsa 3-5 5-7 91.6
U T E P 3-5 4-8 90.8
S M U 6-2 7-5 88.4
Rice 2-6 2-10 76.4
Tulane 1-7 3-9 71.1

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   6-6 105.9
Navy   8-4 100.6
Army   5-6 82.0

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 7-1 9-3 100.7
Ohio U 7-1 9-4 94.9
Buffalo 3-5 5-7 92.4
Bowling Green 6-2 7-5 91.4
Kent St. 4-4 6-6 84.7
Akron 2-6 3-9 81.5
Miami (O) 1-7 1-11 76.3
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Michigan 8-0 11-2 109.0
Northern Illinois 5-3 7-5 95.1
Toledo 3-5 5-7 87.1
Western Michigan 4-4 5-7 86.2
Ball State 2-6 2-10 83.0
Eastern Michigan 0-8 0-12 74.2

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 8-0 12-0 125.4
B Y U 7-1 10-2 111.1
Utah 6-2 9-3 107.7
Air Force 5-3 7-5 100.7
Wyoming 4-4 6-6 87.9
UNLV 3-5 5-7 86.8
Colo. State 0-8 3-9 86.1
S. D. State 3-5 5-7 85.2
New Mexico 1-7 1-11 77.8

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 8-1 10-2 119.8
Stanford 6-3 8-4 116.9
Southern Cal 5-4 8-4 115.1
Arizona 6-3 8-4 114.0
Oregon St. 6-3 8-4 112.0
California 5-4 8-4 108.6
U C L A 3-6 6-6 105.3
Arizona St. 2-7 4-8 102.1
Washington 4-5 5-7 103.6
Wash. St. 0-9 1-11 70.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida 8-0 12-1 128.2
Tennessee 4-4 7-5 110.9
South Carolina 3-5 7-5 110.9
Georgia 4-4 7-5 110.4
Kentucky 3-5 7-5 104.4
Vanderbilt 0-8 2-10 93.1
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 8-0 13-0 133.0
Arkansas 3-5 7-5 115.5
Ole Miss 4-4 8-4 113.2
L S U 5-3 9-3 112.5
Auburn 3-5 7-5 107.7
Mississippi State 3-5 5-7 104.2

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 8-0 9-3 99.0
Middle Tennessee 7-1 9-3 96.2
Louisiana-Monroe 5-3 6-6 86.8
Arkansas State 3-5 4-8 85.8
Florida Atlantic 5-3 5-7 84.6
U. of Louisiana 4-4 6-6 83.7
Florida International 3-5 3-9 80.3
North Texas 1-7 2-10 76.4
Western Kentucky 0-8 0-12 73.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 8-0 13-0 120.9
Nevada 7-1 8-4 108.6
Louisiana Tech 3-5 4-8 99.8
Fresno State 6-2 7-4 99.0
Utah State 3-5 4-8 91.9
Idaho 4-4 7-5 89.6
Hawaii 3-5 6-6 87.7
San Jose State 1-7 2-10 78.5
New Mexico State 1-7 3-10 71.0

 

Bowl Lineups

Day Date Time EST Bowl Team   Team
Sat 19-Dec 4:30 PM New Mexico Wyoming vs. Fresno State
Sat 19-Dec 8:00 PM St. Petersburg Rutgers vs. Central Florida
Sun 20-Dec 8:15 PM New Orleans Middle Tenn vs. Southern Miss
Tue 22-Dec 8:00 PM Las Vegas B  Y  U vs. Oregon State
Wed 23-Dec 8:00 PM Poinsettia Utah vs. California
Thu 24-Dec 8:00 PM Hawaii Nevada vs. S  M  U
Sat 26-Dec 1:00 PM Little Caesar’s Pizza Marshall vs. Ohio U
Sat 26-Dec 4:30 PM Meineke Car Care North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
Sat 26-Dec 8:00 PM Emerald Southern Cal vs. Boston College
Sun 27-Dec 8:15 PM Music City Kentucky vs. Clemson
Mon 28-Dec 5:00 PM Independence Georgia vs. Texas A&M
Tue 29-Dec 4:30 PM Eagle Bank Temple vs. Army/UCLA
Tue 29-Dec 8:00 PM Champs Sports Miami-Fl vs. Wisconsin
Wed 30-Dec 4:30 PM Humanitarian Idaho vs. Bowling Green
Wed 30-Dec 8:00 PM Holiday Nebraska vs. Arizona
Thu 31-Dec 11:00 AM Armed Forces Houston vs. Air Force
Thu 31-Dec 2:00 PM Sun Stanford vs. Oklahoma
Thu 31-Dec 3:30 PM Texas Missouri vs. Navy
Thu 31-Dec 6:00 PM Insight.com Iowa State vs. Minnesota
Thu 31-Dec 7:30 PM Chick-fil-A Tennessee vs. Va. Tech
Fri 1-Jan 11:00 AM Outback Auburn vs. Northwestern
Fri 1-Jan 1:00 PM Capital One Penn State vs. L  S  U
Fri 1-Jan 1:00 PM Gator West Va. vs. Florida State
Fri 1-Jan 5:10 PM Rose Oregon vs. Ohio State
Fri 1-Jan 8:00 PM Sugar Florida vs. Cincinnati
Sat 2-Jan 12:00 PM International South Florida vs. Northern Illinois
Sat 2-Jan 2:00 PM Cotton Oklahoma St. vs. Ole Miss
Sat 2-Jan 2:00 PM Papajohns.com Connecticut vs. South Carolina
Sat 2-Jan 5:30 PM Liberty Arkansas vs. East Carolina
Sat 2-Jan 9:00 PM Alamo Texas Tech vs. Michigan St.
Mon 4-Jan 8:00 PM Fiesta Boise State vs. T C U
Tue 5-Jan 8:00 PM Orange Georgia Tech vs. Iowa
Wed 6-Jan 8:00 PM G M A C Troy vs. Central Mich.
Thu 7-Jan 8:00 PM Nat’l Championship Alabama vs. Texas

Coming This Week–What you can do to help bring about a college football playoff

November 30, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For College Football–November 30-December 12

It’s The Week We’ve All Been Waiting For

 

It seems like just last week the college football season kicked off, and here it is the end of the regular season.  A handful of games can potentially scramble the bowl bids that will go out Sunday.  With the holidays bringing the five PiRates together under the same roof in northwest Wisconsin for too much turkey and other booty, we stayed up late gathering information for this special bowl edition.  We think through hard work and phone calls to contacts in multiple locations, we have one of the best views of the bowl games.

This edition will not be a speculative one.  We are actually trying to use information we have gathered to report where we believe the bowls are looking with six days to go.

The BCS Bowls

National Championship Game:  Obviously the winner of this week’s Alabama-Florida game in the SEC Championship will finish number one.  If Texas wins, then everything is rather easy.  The Longhorns will finish number two.  Here’s where things get dicey.  If Texas loses, there will be controversy no matter which team makes it to Pasadena.  TCU would be the logical choice, but Cincinnati could edge ahead of the Horned Frogs with a convincing win over Pittsburgh.  And, if Alabama were to edge Florida by a point or win in overtime, there is still a possibility that Alabama and Florida could meet in a rematch.  Remember something; part of the BCS equation is human voting.  The fourth estate has never been confused for being honest and just.  All it takes is for a few voters to move TCU down one spot, and the fix would be in.

We believe Nebraska’s lack of offense will make this all superfluous.  Texas will win by double digits this week and face the SEC winner for the national championship.  We’ve taken a vote here in the Northwoods; one of us believes Florida will win this week.  One of us believes Alabama will win, and the other three consider it a tossup.  It should be the next “greatest game,” in the mold of Ohio State and Michigan in 2006, Florida State and Florida in 1996, Notre Dame and USC in 1988, and the two greatest late season matchups of #1 vs. #2—Oklahoma and Nebraska in 1971 and Notre Dame and Michigan State in 1966. 

Orange Bowl: The winner of this week’s Clemson-Georgia Tech game for the ACC Championship will automatically go to Miami.  We believe Clemson has a better than 50% chance of pulling off the upset.  In their regular season game, Clemson’s comedy of errors led to the Yellow Jackets getting a big lead.  The Tigers made a great comeback and almost pulled it off.  We thing CU gets revenge this week and heads to Miami with a weak 8-4 record.  The Orange Bowl will get the third selection in the at-large draft if Texas wins.  The Sugar and Fiesta Bowls will have already picked because they will have lost teams to the National Championship Game.  With Alabama or Florida and Iowa already taken off the board, this pick will come down to either the Big East champion, Boise State, or TCU.  If Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh, we don’t see the Bearcats being chosen even though they would be 12-0.  Cincinnati played in Miami last year.  It would come down to TCU and Boise State.  Believe it or not, Boise’s fans travel better, so we will go with Boise State here.

If Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, the Panthers will probably wind up here, and Boise State would head to the Fiesta Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl: Assuming Texas wins, the Fiesta Bowl will get the second and fourth picks in the at-large draft.  The SEC loser will be off the table, and we believe the best choice for this bowl will be Iowa.  After the Orange Bowl picks Boise State, TCU becomes the logical choice.  If Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, then Boise State would land here.

Sugar Bowl: Without a doubt, the loser of the SEC Championship will play here if both SEC teams don’t play again in Pasadena.  The Sugar Bowl gets the first pick to replace the number one team being lost to the National Championship Game.  The Sugar Bowl also gets the last pick in the at-large draft.  Since this cannot be a Hobson’s Choice, Cincinnati would land here as the only option if the Bearcats beat Pittsburgh.  If Pittsburgh wins this week, then TCU would land here.

Rose Bowl: Ohio State is already assured of playing here.  The winner of Thursday night’s Oregon-Oregon State game will be the opponent.  There can be no other options this year.

The Top-Tier Non-BCS Bowls

 

Capital One Bowl: LSU seems to be a shoo-in for this bowl after Ole Miss fell to Mississippi State.  Penn State will land here if Iowa is chosen over the Lions for a BCS Bowl.  We see no reason for Penn State fans to believe they can beat out Iowa, especially if the bowl in question is the Fiesta Bowl.

Outback Bowl: The top remaining SEC East team is supposed to play here, while the top remaining SEC West team is supposed to play in the Cotton Bowl. Ole Miss played in Dallas last year, and there was talk that there could be a trade-off with Ole Miss heading to Tampa.  However, late news seems to support the Rebels playing in the Cotton Bowl again, so Tennessee looks like the choice here.  The Big Ten representative will be Wisconsin unless the Badgers lose in Hawaii this weekend.  If that happens, it changes a lot of other bowls. 

Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State should receive this invitation, since the Cowboys have the second best record, but Nebraska or over Oklahoma could leapfrog them.  For now, we will stick with the most politically correct pick and go with Oklahoma State.  According to late-breaking news, the SEC representative will be Ole Miss. 

Gator Bowl: Notre Dame’s fold means the Big East gets this spot.  The loser of the Pittsburgh-Cincinnati game will end up in Jacksonville.  We believe Georgia Tech will lose to Clemson this week, so the Yellow Jackets will play here.  Our pick then is Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh.  If the Yellow Jackets win the ACC, then it appears that Miami would be the ACC representative.

Holiday Bowl: Southern Cal will get this bid if Oregon beats Oregon State.  If the Beavers beat the Ducks, then Oregon will drop to this bowl.  Nebraska is the logical Big 12 choice for this game.

Chick-fil-A Bowl: Georgia’s win over Georgia Tech will put the Bulldogs at the top of the list for this game, but a second year in a row of fewer hotel rooms needing to be booked (Georgia Tech played here last year) probably sends the Bulldogs somewhere else.  The likely ACC opponent will be Virginia Tech, and the SEC will try to find the best opponent.  Auburn would be the best choice, providing a match-up of offense against defense, but most of their fans can drive to this game.  We’re going with Auburn because officials from this bowl repeatedly attended their games.  Where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

The Mid-Level Bowls

 

Las Vegas Bowl: Even though they have been to this bowl four years in a row, it looks like Brigham Young is headed here again.  The Mountain West would like Utah to go here, but BYU will sell their allotment for this one, while the Utes will not.

The Pac-10 opponent could be a host of teams, but we think it will be either Stanford or Oregon State.  One of those two will play here, while the other plays in the Emerald Bowl.  We’ll go with Stanford here.  If Oregon State beats Oregon, then Southern Cal or California might fall to this game.

Meineke Car Care Bowl: This bowl will have a choice of Florida State or Boston College.  With Bobby Bowden announcing his retirement tomorrow, the Seminoles will jump over the Eagles.  Rutgers should get the Big East invitation in this game.

Music City Bowl: This could be an interesting rivalry game.  How about North Carolina facing South Carolina?  Since the Gamecocks joined the SEC in 1991, these two teams have played just once.

Liberty Bowl: Arkansas looks like the best option here.  The Razorbacks will fill up the stadium.  The Conference USA champion automatically plays here, so that means either Houston or East Carolina will be the opponent.  Houston and Arkansas would make this a 100-pass, 4-hour game with maybe 100+ points scored.

Sun Bowl: If Oregon wins Thursday, we believe California will be the Pac-10 representative.  Oklahoma looks like the best fit for the Big 12.

Champs Sports Bowl: If Clemson wins over Georgia Tech, Miami should fall to this bowl.  If Georgia Tech wins over Clemson, then Miami moves up to the Gator and Clemson falls here.  Northwestern should be the Big 10 opponent, but if Wisconsin loses to Hawaii, NU could move up and the Badgers could fall here.

Alamo Bowl: Texas Tech should receive this bid, and their opponent should be Michigan State.  It could take 40 points to win this game.

The Bottom Tier

 

St. Petersburg Bowl: This second year bowl has a chance to make a big splash by bringing together two in-state teams that played each other the last four years but not this year.  Central Florida and South Florida could sell this game out.  We think it is a strong possibility, but the chances for this dream game have dropped some the last few days.

New Mexico Bowl: Unless some back room deals are made, the Mountain West opponent will be Wyoming.  There could be some wheeling and dealing to bring an at-large team here and ship Wyoming to the Humanitarian Bowl, but for now, we’ll keep the Cowboys here.  The WAC opponent will be either Nevada or Fresno State.  If Hawaii upsets Wisconsin, then there will be one extra WAC team available.  For now, we’ll stick with Nevada.

New Orleans Bowl: Troy won the Sunbelt Conference Championship and earns the automatic bid here.  There is a rule where the SBC champion could move to a higher-paying bowl, but for that to happen, the SBC must supply two additional seven-win teams.  There are only two of these teams, so Troy will play here barring some “exception.”   The C-USA opponent should be Southern Mississippi.

Poinsettia Bowl: All signs point to BYU playing here, but we just don’t see the Las Vegas bowl passing over the Cougars for Utah.  So, we’re going against the grain and picking Utah to end up in San Diego.  Arizona looks like the Pac-10 opponent.  If the Wildcats upset USC, then there is a small chance they could move up.

Hawaii Bowl:  Here’s where a giant monkey wrench could be thrown into the bowl games.  Hawaii will get this bid with a win over Wisconsin.  We might be biased, but we think the Badgers can pull this one out.  So, in that case, Fresno State should be the WAC representative.  The hot CUSA choice is SMU, which would bring June Jones back to the island.  Since this bowl desperately wants a Hawaii-SMU game, look for this week’s Hawaii-Wisconsin game to be one of the most partially-biased officiated games.

Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl: This bowl could be in for a mess.  Central Michigan played here last year, so it looks like the Chippewas are headed to Mobile, Alabama.  A bigger problem is that there will not be a Big 10 team available for this game.  Because the at-large pool must take all the seven-win teams before any 6-6 team can be selected, this bowl might have to invite two MAC teams, neither of which are the conference champion.

Ohio U should be the official MAC selection.  This bowl would love to bring Notre Dame here, but even if one 6-6 team can be chosen, it looks like the Irish will vote not to play in any bowls.  Middle Tennessee, at 9-3, would be the best at-large option, but we believe the Blue Raiders will be invited somewhere else first.  So, this bowl will have to look for two MAC teams that have not played.  That leaves Northern Illinois against Bowling Green.

Emerald Bowl: Boston College will be the last available ACC team, and they will fortunate to sell half of their ticket allotment.  Oregon State or Stanford will be the opponent here, and since we pegged Stanford for the Las Vegas Bowl, we’ll put the Beavers here.

Independence Bowl: This bowl is tired of having teams that don’t want to be here, but it will be the case once again with the SEC.  Georgia could very well end up here if the Chick-fil-A looks elsewhere.  The Big 12 representative will come down to either Texas A&M or Iowa State.  If Georgia is chosen to play in Atlanta, then this bowl will jump at the chance to pit Auburn with Iowa State for obvious reasons (Auburn coach Gene Chizik was at Iowa State and Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads was at Auburn).  Under the assumption that Auburn will play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, we’ll slate Georgia here against Texas A&M.

Eagle Bank Bowl: This second year bowl faces the possibility that neither of its two tie-ins will be able to supply a team.  Army has to beat Navy to earn their bid.  We believe that will happen, and the Cadets will make life easier for this bowl.  The ACC will definitely not have an available team for this bowl, so an at-large team will be selected.  Temple will be making its first bowl trip in almost two decades, so the Owls will be a good choice.  If Army loses to Navy, then a 6-6 team will end up here.  Since Notre Dame will not be available if they vote not to go to a bowl, Marshall may get this bid, even though Coach Mark Snyder just resigned.

Humanitarian Bowl: With Boise State almost assured of making it to a BCS Bowl if Texas beats Nebraska, this bowl will look to Idaho to replace the Broncos.  With TCU earning a BCS bowl, the MWC will not have an available team for this game.  With all the seven-win teams coming from over 1,500 miles away from Boise, it looks like UCLA could become the one 6-6 bowl team and play here.

Armed Forces Bowl:  The MWC team should be Air Force, as it is a no-brainer to have a service academy playing here.  The C-USA opponent should be the loser of the ECU-Houston game this week.  Houston would be a great counterpart.

Texas Bowl: Navy has already secured one of these spots.  Iowa State or Texas A&M will be the opponent depending on which way the Independence bowl goes.

Insight.com Bowl: Minnesota will be the last Big Ten team in the bowl pecking order, so the Gophers will get this bid.  Missouri is the likely Big 12 opponent.

International Bowl:  Connecticut is the logical choice as the Big East representative.  Ohio U may be shipped here, as they cannot play in the Pizza Bowl against either Bowling Green or Northern Illinois (they beat both).

PapaJohns.com Bowl: Kentucky should be the last available SEC team, and the Wildcats will travel well to Birmingham.  West Virginia would be an excellent opponent here.

NCAA Top 25 For November 30, 2009
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Texas 134.2 12 0
2 Florida 133.2 12 0
3 Alabama 128.0 12 0
4 T C U 125.4 12 0
5 Oklahoma 124.0 7 5
6 Boise State 120.9 12 0
7 Virginia Tech 120.5 9 3
8 Oregon 119.7 9 2
9 Georgia Tech 119.3 10 2
10 Texas Tech 117.9 8 4
11 Penn State 117.7 10 2
12 Southern Cal 117.7 8 3
13 Ohio State 117.6 10 2
14 Miami (Fla) 117.4 9 3
15 Stanford 116.9 8 4
16 Nebraska 116.1 9 3
17 Arkansas 115.5 7 5
18 Iowa 114.8 10 2
19 California 114.6 8 3
20 Cincinnati 114.4 11 0
21 Pittsburgh 114.2 9 2
22 Oklahoma State 113.9 9 3
23 Ole Miss 113.2 8 4
24 L  S  U 112.5 9 3
25 Oregon State 112.1 8 3
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Clemson 6-2 8-4 111.8
Florida State 4-4 6-6 107.6
Boston College 5-3 8-4 107.1
Wake Forest 3-5 5-7 104.8
North Carolina State 2-6 5-7 102.7
Maryland 1-7 2-10 93.0
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 6-2 9-3 120.5
Georgia Tech 7-1 10-2 119.3
Miami-FL 5-3 9-3 117.4
North Carolina 4-4 8-4 110.9
Duke 3-5 5-7 98.4
Virginia 2-6 3-9 94.8
Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Cincinnati 7-0 11-0 114.4
Pittsburgh 5-1 9-2 114.2
West Virginia 4-2 8-3 105.9
Connecticut 2-4 6-5 105.8
Rutgers 3-3 8-3 102.2
South Florida 3-3 7-4 101.8
Syracuse 1-6 4-8 93.9
Louisville 1-6 4-8 90.5
Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Penn State 6-2 10-2 117.7
Ohio State 7-1 10-2 117.6
Iowa 6-2 10-2 114.8
Wisconsin 5-3 8-3 105.3
Michigan State 4-4 6-6 101.5
Northwestern 5-3 8-4 99.3
Purdue 4-4 5-7 99.0
Minnesota 3-5 6-6 97.9
Michigan 1-7 5-7 96.6
Illinois 2-6 3-8 96.2
Indiana 1-7 4-8 90.9
Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 6-2 9-3 116.1
Missouri 4-4 8-4 104.8
Kansas 1-7 5-7 103.9
Kansas State 4-4 6-6 99.4
Colorado 2-6 3-9 97.4
Iowa State 3-5 6-6 94.9
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Texas 8-0 12-0 134.2
Oklahoma 5-3 7-5 124.0
Texas Tech 5-3 8-4 117.9
Oklahoma State 6-2 9-3 113.9
Texas A&M 3-5 6-6 103.4
Baylor 1-7 4-8 96.6
Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 6-2 8-4 104.1
East Carolina 7-1 8-4 103.9
Southern Mississippi 5-3 7-5 100.9
Marshall 4-4 6-6 92.4
U A B 4-4 5-7 91.0
Memphis 1-7 2-10 83.4
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 6-2 10-2 108.7
Tulsa 3-5 5-7 91.6
U T E P 3-5 4-8 90.8
S M U 6-2 7-5 88.4
Rice 2-6 2-10 76.4
Tulane 1-7 3-9 71.1
Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   6-6 105.9
Navy   8-4 100.6
Army   5-6 82.0
Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 7-1 9-3 100.7
Ohio U 7-1 9-3 95.0
Buffalo 3-5 5-7 92.4
Bowling Green 6-2 7-5 91.4
Kent St. 4-4 6-6 84.7
Akron 2-6 3-9 81.5
Miami (O) 1-7 1-11 76.3
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Michigan 8-0 10-2 108.9
Northern Illinois 5-3 7-5 95.1
Toledo 3-5 5-7 87.1
Western Michigan 4-4 5-7 86.2
Ball State 2-6 2-10 83.0
Eastern Michigan 0-8 0-12 74.2
Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 8-0 12-0 125.4
B Y U 7-1 10-2 111.1
Utah 6-2 9-3 107.7
Air Force 5-3 7-5 100.7
Wyoming 4-4 6-6 87.9
UNLV 3-5 5-7 86.8
Colo. State 0-8 3-9 86.1
S. D. State 3-5 5-7 85.2
New Mexico 1-7 1-11 77.8
Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 7-1 9-2 119.7
Southern Cal 5-3 8-3 117.7
Stanford 6-3 8-4 116.9
California 5-3 8-3 114.6
Oregon St. 6-2 8-3 112.1
Arizona 5-3 7-4 111.4
U C L A 3-6 6-6 105.3
Arizona St. 2-7 4-8 102.1
Washington 3-5 4-7 97.6
Wash. St. 0-9 1-11 70.8
Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida 8-0 12-0 133.2
Tennessee 4-4 7-5 110.9
South Carolina 3-5 7-5 110.9
Georgia 4-4 7-5 110.4
Kentucky 3-5 7-5 104.4
Vanderbilt 0-8 2-10 93.1
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 8-0 12-0 128.0
Arkansas 3-5 7-5 115.5
Ole Miss 4-4 8-4 113.2
L S U 5-3 9-3 112.5
Auburn 3-5 7-5 107.7
Mississippi State 3-5 5-7 104.2
Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 8-0 9-3 99.0
Middle Tennessee 7-1 9-3 96.2
Louisiana-Monroe 5-3 6-6 86.8
Arkansas State 2-5 3-8 86.2
U. of Louisiana 4-4 6-6 83.7
Florida Atlantic 4-3 4-7 83.2
Florida International 3-4 3-8 81.7
North Texas 1-7 2-10 76.4
Western Kentucky 0-7 0-11 73.3
Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 7-0 12-0 120.9
Nevada 7-1 8-4 108.6
Fresno State 6-2 7-4 99.0
Louisiana Tech 2-5 3-8 97.2
Utah State 3-5 4-8 91.9
Idaho 4-4 7-5 89.6
Hawaii 3-5 6-6 87.7
San Jose State 1-6 2-9 81.1
New Mexico State 1-6 3-9 71.0
This Week’s Games–PiRate & Mean Ratings
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site      
         
Thursday, December 3   PiRate Spread    
Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Arkansas State WESTERN KY. 10.2 34-24 9
OREGON Oregon State 10.3 38-28 9
         
Friday, December 4   PiRate Spread    
Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Central Michigan  (Det.) Ohio U 14.9 35-20 7
         
Saturday, December 5   PiRate Spread    
Favorite Underdog Score Mean
CONNECTICUT South Florida 7.3 27-20 7
PITTSBURGH Cincinnati 2.8 24-21 0
West Virginia RUTGERS 0.7 28-27 0
Houston EAST CAROLINA 1.8 37-35 5
ILLINOIS Fresno State 0.7 31-30 -3
LOUISIANA TECH San Jose St. 19.1 40-21 16
BOISE STATE New Mexico St. 53.4 63-10 44
SOUTHERN CAL Arizona 10.6 24-13 6
Florida (Atlanta) Alabama 5.2 21-16 2
California WASHINGTON 14.0 35-21 8
FLORIDA INT’L Florida Atlantic 0.5 27-26 1
Texas (Dallas) Nebraska 19.6 27-7 14
Wisconsin HAWAII 13.6 38-24 11
         
Saturday, December 12   PiRate Spread    
Favorite Underdog Score Mean
Navy  (N-Philadelphia) Army 18.6 35-16 8
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