By the time one reaches his or her 60’s, he or she probably knows somebody close, maybe a member of his/her family or a friend that has passed on to the hereafter, when the dearly departed seemed just fine a couple months before passing. Maybe, it was an unexpected cardiovascular issue. Maybe it was cancer that was detected too late and was well into the fourth stage. In too many cases in the last 18 months, maybe it was Covid, where the person was asymptomatic until symptoms developed followed by the cytokine storm that shut down the body organs.
The Big 12 Conference was like a friend, the child of very good friends known as the Southwest Conference and the Big 8 Conference. Just a few weeks ago, the Big 12 was asymptomatic, until July 21. On that day a media doctor in Houston diagnosed a potentially fatal disease that has the Big 12 in the process of going through the five stages of death.
Immediately, once that specialist in Houston diagnosed Realignment Syndrome, and that the conferences’ top two revenue generators were terminal, the first step of the process was denial. No, it was not true; Texas and Oklahoma were not leaving for the SEC.
Then, the second stage, anger quickly replaced the denial once it became official that the two schools had applied for admission to the SEC. After anger came bargaining. The Big 12 hurriedly tried to make an arrangement with other conferences, probably the Pac-12 and definitely the American Athletic Conference. When the rumors began to circulate that the ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 were looking at an alternative to compete against the SEC, it became time for depression to set in. By the time the 2021-2022 football season concludes, the Big 12 will come to an acceptance and realize it is beyond their control.
The irony in this is that eight of the ten Big 12 teams are likely to be bowl eligible this year in what should be a strong year for the Big 12. And, there are two teams talented enough to make a run to the Playoffs. Alas poor Big 12. We knew him well. There is a strong possibility that this is the last Big 12 preview the PiRate Ratings will release. Where the other eight teams play in 2022 is anybody’s guess.
Here is how the Big 12 Media voted their preseason poll in the league’s meetings.
| Big 12 Conference Media Poll | ||
| Team | 1st Pl | Overall |
| Oklahoma | 35 | 386 |
| Iowa St. | 4 | 351 |
| Texas | 273 | |
| Oklahoma St. | 266 | |
| TCU | 255 | |
| West Virginia | 185 | |
| Kansas St. | 163 | |
| Baylor | 124 | |
| Texas Tech | 103 | |
| Kansas | 39 |
Here are the preseason PiRate Ratings.
| Big 12 Conference | ||||
Team | PiRate | Mean | Bias | Average |
| Oklahoma | 129.3 | 126.7 | 128.2 | 128.1 |
| Iowa St. | 125.3 | 123.5 | 125.6 | 124.8 |
| T C U | 116.6 | 115.1 | 116.3 | 116.0 |
| Texas | 116.7 | 114.5 | 115.6 | 115.6 |
| Oklahoma St. | 113.5 | 113.2 | 112.5 | 113.1 |
| West Virginia | 113.8 | 112.0 | 111.1 | 112.3 |
| Baylor | 104.9 | 104.8 | 103.8 | 104.5 |
| Kansas St. | 104.9 | 104.7 | 103.5 | 104.4 |
| Texas Tech | 102.0 | 102.8 | 100.8 | 101.9 |
| Kansas | 88.1 | 85.6 | 82.5 | 85.4 |
| Big 12 Averages | 111.5 | 110.3 | 110.0 | 110.6 |
Here is a capsule of each team.
Oklahoma lost consecutive games to Kansas State and Iowa State to start the 2020 season 1-2. The following week, the Sooners played Texas at the old Cotton Bowl Stadium and the Sooners blew two leads, allowing Texas to send the game to overtime. Through three overtimes, the score was still tied, and Oklahoma was fortunate to make it that far. The Sooners were oh so close to starting a season 1-3 for the first time this century. OU won the game in the fourth overtime when Texas couldn’t score. At 2-2, the Sooners reeled off seven wins in a row, including an impressive Big 12 Championship revenge victory over Iowa State. Then, in the Cotton Bowl, the Sooners made mincemeat out of Florida, winning by five touchdowns.
Coach Lincoln Riley welcomes back one of the top quarterbacks in the country, and he’s just a sophomore. Spencer Rattler played like a seasoned pro the last seven games of the season, while leading the Sooners to an average of 45 points per game in the winning streak. Spencer could easily top 350 passing yards this year, while guiding the Sooners to possibly 50 points per game in the nation’s most prolific offense.
It’s not just Rattler that has us so high on this team. There are no weaknesses in any unit on offense or defense. In addition to Rattler, the Sooners boast one of the top receiving corps in college football. Marvin Mims led the team with 37 receptions and 610 yards, and he wasn’t even a full-time starter last year. Theo Wease also had 37 receptions for 530 yards. Tight end Jeremiah Hall took advantage of his 18 receptions, scoring five touchdowns. Fellow tight end Austin Stogner was a big play receiver with 24 catches and 422 yards.
When Oklahoma runs the ball, they won’t be confused for the great Sooner teams of the past both before and after the Wishbone years, but they have two potential NFL talents on the roster. Kennedy Brooks didn’t play last year as a Covid opt-out, but he rushed for more than 1,000 yards in 2019. Former Tennessee Vol Eric Gray averaged over five yards per attempt and was the only weapon the Vols had in many games.
The offensive line was going to have some questions, but the Transfer Portal was very beneficial here, as another former Tennessee player, Wanya Morris fills a key spot at left tackle.
The Sooner defense was a bit too generous in the first four games, but in the final seven, they gave up 17 points per game. This looks to be the best defense since coordinator Alex Grinch left Ohio State for Norman.
With the return from injury of linebacker Caleb Kelly, the Sooners have six experienced starters returning to the 3-3-5 defense’s front six, and since four linebackers have starting experience and are star players, it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility that OU uses some 3-4 or maybe even 2-4 alignments. Tackle Isaiah Thomas has All-American potential. He led the Sooners with 8 ½ sacks last year. Outside linebacker Nik Bonnito was an All-American last year, and he should repeat again this year if he stays healthy. Expect this front six to hold enemy runners to less than four yards per carry and get considerable pressure on quarterbacks.
The five-man secondary returns two starters, but the other three expected starters saw action and started some games at the end of the year when the OU defense improved. All five were in the secondary during the Cotton Bowl. The safety tandem of Pat Fields and DeLarrin Turner-Yell are among the best duos in the country.
Oklahoma’s schedule could help the Sooners make a run at the top spot in the polls this year. After a road game against Tulane and a home game against Western Carolina, game three will be a memorable one. Oklahoma hosts Nebraska in the 50th anniversary of the Greatest College Football Game Ever Played. On Thanksgiving Day of 1971, #1 Nebraska came from behind in the last few minutes of the game to edge #2 Oklahma 35-31. Expect the Sooners to threaten 31 points before halftime. The key to an undefeated season is beating Iowa State twice. They face the Cyclones in Norman in November, and they will likely have to play them again two weeks later.
Iowa State returns more starters than Oklahoma, and the Cyclones won the Big 12 regular season title last year, but they begin the 2021 looking up at the Sooners by a couple points. Sixth year coach Matt Campbell has been loyal to the Cyclones and had turned down other big job opportunities to stay in Ames, but unless Iowa State quickly finds a new conference not named the American Athletic, this might be his swansong at Iowa State.
Brock Purdy must be considered a Heisman Trophy candidate. The senior quarterback completed roughly ⅔ of this passes last year, while averaging 11.3 yards per completion. If he can cut down on an interception percentage of 2.5% to less than 2%, then he could has a chance to sneak in and grab that hardware if he can shine in a victory over Oklahoma.’
The Cyclone receiving corps returns a stable of thoroughbreds led by Xavier Hutchinson, who led the team with 64 receptions for 771 yards last year. Tight end Charlie Kolar may be the leading contender for the Mackey Award this year after being a finalist last year. He caught 44 passes for 591 yards and seven touchdowns. Backup Chase Allen would start for most every other team in the nation.
Iowa State has a second Heisman Trophy candidate on their roster in running back Breece Hall. Hall rushed for 1,572 yards and 21 touchdowns in 12 games last year, averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
The Cyclone offensive line returns all five starters, but the best player in this unit didn’t play last year. Guard Trevor Downing may be the best offensive lineman in the Big 12. Center Colin Newell rates as the top at that position in this league.
Iowa State averaged 33 points per game and narrowly missed topping 200 yards rushing and passing last year. It would not be shocking if they topped 35 points per game and did rush and pass for more than 200 yards per game this year.
The secondary is the strength of the ISU defense. Four of five starters return this year, and the second five are talented enough to start for many teams. Cornerbacks Anthony Johnson, Jr. and Tayvonn Kyle are the best outside defenders in the league.
The Cyclones return all three linebackers including strongside linebacker Mike Rose, who led the Big 12 in tackles and interceptions. Up front, ISU returns three players with extensive starting experience. End Will McDonald, IV, led the league in QB sacks with 10 ½.
A road game against West Virginia is the most likely speed bump that could prevent Iowa State from playing Oklahoma in November with both teams still unbeaten and ranked in the top 10. Last year, we believed that Oklahoma was a field goal better overall, and Iowa State has ever so slightly closed the gap to start the season.
After the top two, the next four teams are closely rated, and it would not be a surprise to see the four finish in a large tie for third place.
TCU looked strong down the stretch last year, when they won five of their final six games to finish 6-4. The Horned Frogs gave up 10.5 fewer points per game in that stretch than they did in the opening four games.
The offense was a bit more consistent last year, and with quarterback Max Duggan coming back this year, TCU should be just as consistent in 2021. Duggan led the Horned Frogs in rushing with 526 yards and 10 touchdowns. He passed for 1,795 yards with a 10/4 TD/INT ratio.
TCU is a run-first team, and this year’s squad will be a running back by committee with four capable rushers. The Frogs will likely wear teams down by pounding all four into the line during games.
When defenses begin to creep up to stop the run, Duggan can make them pay by locating his speedy receivers for big gains. Sophomore Quentin Johnston caught 22 passes for an eye-popping 22.1 yards per catch, the highest average per catch of any freshman in conference history. Taye Barber led TCU last year with 31 grabs.
The offensive line welcomes back three starters, but they pick up a fourth starter via the Transfer Portal in former Memphis tackle Obinna Eze. This blocking brigade should allow TCU to approach 35 points and 425 yards per game this year.
The defense should be strong up front, but it will be questionable in the back. In this league a questionable pass defense isn’t good for a team’s health.
The runaway best part of this defense are the bookends. Ends Ochaun Mathis and Khari Coleman make up the best terminal tandem in the league. Tackles Terrell Cooper and Corey Bethley are experienced seniors with several career starts. Bethley could have been selected in the NFL Draft, but he chose to return.
The brightest spots in the back seven of the 4-2-5 defense are cornerbacks Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and linebacker Dee Winters. If former Memphis safety T.J. Carter can prove to be a legitimate Big 12 safety, the Frogs’ liability might turn to a strength.
TCU should win all three non-conference games, so going 5-4 in the league would mean an 8-4 record and a chance to finish ranked with a win in a bowl game.
The Eyes of Texas are upon new coach Steve Sarkisian. The one-time Washington and USC head coach has most recently been Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator. Texas was not a bad team last year under Tom Herman. The Longhorns went 7-3 with an Alamo Bowl win over Colorado. All three losses were by a field goal or less or in overtime. Eight more points could have made UT 10-0.
The Longhorns averaged almost 43 points per game last year under Herman. In the past, Sarkisian had issues taking over high-powered offenses. For instance, when he became the offensive coordinator of the Atlanta Falcons, replacing Kyle Shanahan, the Falcons went from NFC Champions with a potent offense to pedestrian for the next two seasons, bringing his dismissal. USC’s offense did not shine after he came there from Washington. Can Sarkisian buck history? With a looming move to the SEC, this will be one of the most interesting stories to follow.
Sark has to break in a new quarterback, as Sam Ehlinger may open the season as the Indianapolis Colts’ starting quarterback. As of the time of this writing, there was still a two-man fight for the starting quarterback job, but Hudson Card sure looks like the guy that will open the season against Louisiana. Card saw minimal action as a freshman and remains a freshman this year. The Longhorns are going to take a step back in their passing game.
The Longhorn running game is still in excellent shape. Returning starter Bijan Robinson and backup Roschon Johnson might be dual 1000-yard rushers in an old-fashioned veer type of offense, but the two should combine for 1,500 yards this year.
With an inexperienced quarterback, one would expect the passing yardage to drop off, and with the loss of a key receiver from last year, the Longhorns really need an infusion of talent here. There is good news and bad news on that front. Troy Omeire looked to be a potential star as a redshirt freshman last August, but he tore an ACL and missed the season. He was expected to return this year and be one of two main targets for whoever won the quarterback battle. But, Omeire has been having difficulties trusting his repaired knee and is not on pace to start when Texas plays Louisiana on September 4.
The offensive line is talented and experienced, but they have to learn a new system, moving away from the Urban Meyer type of spread that Herman used. Expect a few mistakes early in the season.
The Longhorn defense has a bit of rebuilding to do, having to replace its one star from last year. Joseph Ossai was a one-man offense disrupter both against the run and the pass. Two Transfer Portal linebackers will try to replace this irreplaceable star.
Texas should be a bit stronger on the back line than on the front line. However, the overall defense is not going to be strong enough to challenge Oklahoma and Iowa State for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. 5-4 in the league looks more like the norm for this club, and they better watch out and be ready to play against Louisiana in game number one. A lot of sharps in Nevada and the Caribbean have investments on the underdog Ragin’ Cajuns.
Oklahoma State beat Iowa State in late October to take the Big 12 lead, but an overtime loss to Texas a week later set up a make or break game against rival Oklahoma. The Sooners pasted the Cowboys by four touchdowns, to knock OSU out of the Championship Game picture. A Cheez-it Bowl victory over Miami ended a somewhat disappointing 8-3 season,
Coach Mike Gundy enters year 17 in Stillwater missing too many stars from last year’s team to compete for the conference championship, but they have enough talent returning to get into the mix of multiple 5-4 teams.
Spencer Sanders has been labeled with that “P” word since he matriculated to Stillwater. Sanders has yet to live up to that potential. Last year, he threw eight interceptions in just 247 attempts for a rather high 3.2% interception rate, really high for the Air Raid offense. Sanders lost his three leading receivers from last year, but former Washington State Air Raid receiver Tay Martin caught 112 passes in his sophomore and junior seasons, and he should team with Brennan Presley and Braydon Johnson after contributing in a minor way last year.
The running game loses its star running back, but Chuba Hubbard had an off year in his final season, and his production can be replaced.
The offensive line lost its best player in 1st team All Big 12 tackle Teven Jenkins, but numerous injuries led to many players seeing action last year, and there are a couple of transfers that should give the Cowboys a deep but not outstanding interior line.
The defense figures to be a little stronger this year, and OSU should finish near the top in scoring defense this year if their offense doesn’t experience too many short drives.
While none of the three units on the defense are full of stars, they are all solid and have some depth to back up the starters. The Cowboys use a 4-2-5 defense, and they have talent in all three units. Up front, Tyler Lacy and Trace Ford make competent ends. Malcolm Rodriguez led the Cowboys in tackles last year. Safeties Kolby Harvell-Peel and Tre Sterling both picked off two passes.
The non-conference schedule is a little tricky after the first game against Missouri State. Tulsa gave Oklahoma State an incredible defensive battle last year, and the Golden Hurricane might be better this year. Boise State has a new coach, but they are a major player on their blue field. If the Cowboys emerge at 3-0, they could easily be 5-0 when they play at Texas.
In Neal Brown’s two years at West Virginia, the Mountaineers have gone 5-7 and 6-4, not figuring in the Big 12 race either year. WVU led the Big 12 in both scoring and total defense last year, but the offense stalled too many times, scoring 59 points in their four losses. 2021 should be a season where the Mountaineers fare a little better offensively and a little weaker defensively.
Leading the offense is fifth year senior Jarret Doege. Doege was off and on last year, finishing with 14 touchdown passes and 2,587 passing yards. Almost every receiver from last year returns this year, led by last year’s top pass-catcher Winston Wright, Jr. (47 receptions, 553 yards).
WVU returns 1,000-yard rusher Leddie Brown. Brown averaged more than 100 rushing yards per game in 2020, scoring nine touchdowns. He caught 31 passes coming out of the backfield.
As good as these numbers are in the skill positions, the offensive line is the best part of the offense. Five players with extensive starting experience, two from different schools, return this year, and West Virginia should see a bump in rushing average and a drop in QB sacks.
The defense gave up less than 160 passing yards and less than 300 total yards per game last year. Gone are many of the key players that made those numbers happen. West Virginia has to rebuild in all three units, losing star nose tackle Darius Stills, linebacker Tony Fields, II, and safety Tykee Smith, who transferred to Georgia.
Defensive line will be the strength of this year’s defense. Dante Stills could have been drafted this year, but he chose to come back. End Jeffery Pooler, Jr., returns to anchor one side of the line.
Three starters return to the defensive backfield, led by free safety Alonzo Addae. Former Arizona Wildcat Scottie Young will start at strong safety after coming off the bench in his first year in Morgantown.
West Virginia has two tough non-conference games in backyard rival Maryland and neighbor Virginia Tech, and if the Mountaineers lose both games, they will be in jeopardy of suffering through another season where six or seven wins is the ceiling.
Baylor went from near the top to near the bottom of the Big 12 with Coach Dave Aranda replacing one of the top college football coaches of this era in Matt Rhule. The Bears suffered through a 2-7 season that saw BU being outscored by an average of 31-19 by teams that didn’t have the name “Kansas.”
The 2021 BU edition suffered heavy losses on the offensive side of the ball, including the transfer of quarterback Charlie Brewer. The Bears go from experienced senior to untested and less talented replacements. As of this writing, Aranda and offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes have yet to determine the starter for the opener against Texas State. Junior Gerry Bohanon emerged from Spring Practice as the apparent starter, but as of the most recent scrimmage, Bohanon was the best runner of the trio competing for the job, but he was not the most accurate. Sophomore Jacob Zeno and redshirt freshman Blake Shapen are in the mix.
There is no real competition at the receiver slots, where this will be the strength of the offense. Tyquan Thornton caught 65 passes and averaged 17.5 yards per catch his first two seasons in Waco. He was limited to five games last year and saw quite a drop in his production. If he can return to his 2019 form, Baylor will move the ball because defenses will be forced to play deeper coverages. That will help possession receivers R.J. Sneed and Gavin Holmes find the seams in the zones.
The running game was awful in 2020, averaging a meager 90 yards per game. Trestan Ebner averaged only 2.1 yards per carry, but he did catch 26 passes and averaged 11.5 yards per catch.
The offensive line returns just one starter, but a couple of Transfers from the Portal should make this a decent offensive line. Baylor finished 2020 as the 100th-ranked scoring team and 118th-ranked total yards team (out of 127). If the new QB can throw accurate passes, BU should score up to 28 points per game this year.
The defense wasn’t that bad considering the offense couldn’t sustain long, time-consuming drives. Baylor gave up less than 400 yards per game last year, and with nine returning starters, the Bears could move up into the top four defenses in the league and possibly top 30 in the nation.
The strength of this defense is at linebacker where four starters return (if you count Jalen Pitre as a linebacker.) He is the Star position, which is part safety and part strong-side linebacker. He led BU with 60 tackles and 13 TFL last year. Terrel Bernard led the team with 3 ½ QB sacks, and he lines up on the opposite side of Pitre. Opponents will have difficulty running stretch plays and passing into the flanks against this duo.
Up front in the multiple odd front defense, two of last year’s three starters return, but incoming Transfer Portal talent improves this unit. Expect former LSU nose tackle Siaki Ika will command double team blocks that free up the linebackers.
The secondary features two talented safeties in Christian Morgan and J.T. Woods, both of whom intercepted three passes last year. There’s depth here, even if the talent is basically better than average but not exceptional, and Baylor will face multiple offenses with exceptional receivers.
A non-conference schedule that basically guarantees three wins is the only saving grace for Baylor this year. The Bears are capable of going 3-6 in league play to earn bowl eligibility at 6-6.
Kansas State went 8-5 in Coach Chris Klieman’s first season in The Little Apple in 2019. Last year was a major disappointment, as the Wildcats fell to 4-6 that included a non-conference loss to a weak Arkansas State team. Included in that poor record last year was a season-ending five-game losing streak where KSU surrendered almost 41 points per game. On the other hand, this is a team that went to Norman and beat Oklahoma.
Which Kansas State team will take the field more times than not in 2021–the team that beat Oklahoma and TCU, or the team that lost five in a row? We believe it will be more of the same, but not in separate runs like last year. The Wildcats return an experienced offense to run Klieman’s more conservative philosophy that he used to go 69-6 at North Dakota State and win four FCS national championships in five years.
Skylar Thompson returns to run the offense as a sixth year senior after a shoulder injury sidelined him a week after he led the Wildcats to the win over Oklahoma. When healthy in 2019, Thompson completed 60% of his passes at better than 13 yards per completion with a 12/5 TD/INT ratio. He ran for 11 more touchdowns, so he knows how to put points on the board.
The Wildcats are a run-first team, and in Deuce Vaughn, they have a potential All-conference back. Vaughn actually led the team in pass receptions last year, but that had more to do with backup QB Will Howard having issues throwing the ball downfield. Vaughn should top 1,000 rushing yards if he stays healthy, and that will allow Thompson more open space to find receivers downfield.
The receiving corps is adequate but not spectacular. Malik Knowles and Chabastin Taylor are asked to run deeper routes than normal in order to open running lanes for the rushing attack, so they will not catch as many balls per target as other receivers. However, their yards per catch will be in the upper parts of the rankings. They both averaged more than 15 yards per catch last year, and those numbers could improve with Thompson healthy again.
The offensive line has experience and depth returning, and they should provide ample protection for Thompson.
This offense will best serve the team if the running game can eat the clock and help an inexperienced defense stay off the field. If the running game can average 175 or more yards per game, and the team scores 28 points per game, that will give the Wildcats a fighting chance to return to a bowl.
The defense is going to need all the help it can get. When Thompson was injured, and the offense did not thrive, the defense wore down and became too generous. The bad news is that six starters are gone from that squad, including a couple of stars.
The strength of a pedestrian defense is the secondary. The addition of cornerback Julius Brents from Iowa instantly improves the pass defense. However, a weaker pass rush is going to allow enemy quarterbacks more time to find receivers, and even the best pass defenders eventually allow even average receivers to get open if the QB has five seconds to pass.
The fact that strong safety Jaron McPherson led the team in tackles last year speaks volumes. Kansas State finished last in the league, behind Kansas, in pass defense, and this team loses the only serious sack monster, as end Wyatt Hubert may become a starting defensive lineman for the Cincinnati Bengals this year.
The key to Kansas State becoming bowl eligible is their opening game against a rebuilding Stanford Cardinal team in a game that will be played at Jerry World in Arlington, Texas. Win that game, and the Wildcats have a strong chance to win five more. If KSU loses that game, then the home game against Nevada becomes questionable two weeks later, and finding three conference wins might be asking too much.
Texas Tech fired Mike Leach in 2009 after The Pirate led the Red Raiders to bowl games in all 10 years he was in Lubbock. His 2008 team climbed as high as number two in the national polls. Since Leach was given his walking papers, three head coaches have combined to lead TTU to just four bowls in 11 seasons and zero winning seasons in Big 12 play. This is a school where Patrick Mahomes started for three years, and the school went 16-21 in that time! Can this program continue to matter in FBS football with the probably collapse of this league? Lubbock is an outpost in the vast staked plains of Texas. People I personally know, including former Coach Tommy Tuberville, felt as isolated there as if they were on the International Space Station. Others have referred to the highways coming into Lubbock from other locations as miles and miles of miles and miles.
Texas Tech was not originally part of the Southwest Conference. The Raiders were members of the Border Conference for many years, then an Independent when there were 30 of them, and then finally the eighth member of the SWC, joining in 1960. In truth, Tech should probably be aligned with New Mexico, New Mexico State, Utah State, UTEP, UTSA, and other schools in a Group of 5 new conference. Alas, they will move mountains trying to gain admission to the Pac-12, because in just one month, Coach Matt Wells has admitted that the realignment issue is a big liability in recruiting. Tech cannot afford to lose just one or two recruits, so this is a big issue, and this is the reason we are almost as low on this team as we are on schools like Vanderbilt in the SEC. They just can’t lose recruits and continue to compete at a Power 5 level.
As for this year’s team, Texas Tech brings in former quarterback Sonny Cumbie as offensive coordinator, and the Raiders should go more with an Air Raid look. The question is will incoming Oregon transfer Tyler Shough be competent enough to learn and run this system with limited experience in an Air Raid offense? Shough might be a better running QB than any recent TTU QBs, but the Air Raid is all about quick short passing to set up the “6” play, where four receivers run deep vertical routes.
Tech has one receiver capable of getting open deep in Erik Ezukanma. He will be able to open shorter passing lanes for a contingent of different receivers, but none of them will strike fear in Big 12 defenses.
Tech may be strongest at running back, and it wouldn’t surprise us here on the PiRate ship if one or more become slot receivers. SaRoderick Thompson might be a 1,000-yard rusher in a standard one-back pro offense, but catching 30-40 passes may be more important this year.
The key to making the Air Raid offense work is an offensive line that can take very wide splits and still protect the quarterback. Leach’s offensive lines have taken as much as 4-foot splits. This forces defensive ends and outside linebackers to take an extra two steps to get to the passing pocket, and that fraction of a second extra gives the QB just enough time to read the coverage and make his throw. Tech has a decent but not great offensive line this year, led by the best player on the offense in center Dawson Deaton.
The Air Raid offense forces defenses to stay on the field a bit more, and the Texas Tech defense doesn’t need the extra burden after finishing a disappointing ninth in the league in scoring and total defense last year. The 2021 defense will be considerably stronger up front but somewhat weaker in the backfield. Wells has dipped into the Transfer Portal to make over this side of the ball, and even though the talent might have improved somewhat, having all these new players learn and master the defensive system is not always a fluid adventure. It can lead to occasional breakdowns, the type that lead to touchdowns for the other team.
The defensive front seven returns all its 2020 starters, led by tackle Tony Bradford. He prevented blockers from getting to inside linebackers Krishon Merriweather and Colin Schooler, who combined to make 138 tackles, 11 ½ for loss, and 5 ½ sacks.
The Red Raiders begin the season facing Houston at NRG Stadium, and the Cougars figure to be a slight favorite in that game. Any slight chance TTU has of sneaking its way to a 6-6 season requires an upset victory in this game. Tech will still need to pull off a conference upset to get to three league wins, and we don’t see that happening this year. Four wins may be the expectation, and for Tech fans’ sakes, we hope your school can find the proper new league for the oasis known as Lubbock.
Now, for the weakest Power 5 team in the nation. Can things actually get worse in 2021 for a Kansas team that went 0-9 last year, finished last in the nation in scoring defense and almost finished last in the nation in scoring offense? The school didn’t hire its new head football coach until the end of April, and Lance Leipold didn’t arrive in Lawrence until the first of May, after the end of Spring Practice.
It took Leipold four years to develop the Buffalo Bulls into the top program in the MAC East Division, and he took over a program that had won eight games just two years before. He inherits a Kansas team that looks more like the 1962 New York Mets of football, maybe even the 1899 Cleveland Spiders!
Can an offense that averaged a mere 15.8 points per game last year and barely 250 total yards per game not be improved in 2021? KU will likely see these numbers increase this year, but it will happen because the Jayhawks will play three non-conference games. They still should lose at least two of these three, and if South Dakota can bring an effort similar to the one they brought to Kansas State three years ago, even that game is not a gimme for the Jayhawks.
The offense turns the keys over to former North Texas quarterback Jason Bean. Bean couldn’t hold onto the starting job in Dentonm as Austin Aune eventually emerged as the starter. Bean figures to start ahead of the returning quarterbacks on the roster from last year, and that speaks volumes about the lack of talent on this team.
After quarterback, it only gets weaker, as Kansas is so far behind the rest of the Big 12 in every unit on the team, both offensive and defensive. Leipold and staff had to hustle to move players around and change positions during the Summer. The only bright spot on this team is kick returner Kenny Logan, who took a kick 100 yards to the house last year against Iowa State in a 52-22 loss. Logan will unfortunately get the most opportunities to return kicks of any player in Power 5 football.
Uncertainty as to the future of this school in conference alignment will lead to additional recruiting difficulties, and Leipold cannot be expected to start building this program back to respectability until KU has a known future. Having one of the best basketball programs in America can only help so far, because realignment is 99% about football. Having the worst Power 5 program isn’t something that attracts the Big Ten, but bringing in the Kansas City TV market and with KU being a member of the Association of American Universities will go a long way in helping the Jayhawks seek entry into the Big Ten. If Rock Chalk cannot gain admission, then it won’t only hurt the football program; it is going to harm the basketball program as well.
The PiRate Ratings are not designed to look forward for an entire season and predict won-loss records. Their sell by date is only until the next weekend of games conclude. Nevertheless, we issue predicted won-loss records just for fun.
| Big 12 Conference | Conf. | Overall |
| Oklahoma | 9-0 | 13-0 * |
| Iowa St. | 8-1 | 11-2 |
| TCU | 5-4 | 8-4 |
| West Virginia | 5-4 | 8-4 |
| Texas | 5-4 | 8-4 |
| Oklahoma St. | 5-4 | 8-4 |
| Kansas St. | 3-6 | 6-6 |
| Baylor | 3-6 | 6-6 |
| Texas Tech | 2-7 | 4-8 |
| Kansas | 0-9 | 1-11 |
| * Oklahoma picked to win Big 12 Championship Game |
The Pi-Rate Ratings 