Bracketnomics 2013: National Championship Game–April 8, 2013

2013 NCAA Tournament— Championship Game, April 8, 2013

Time Eastern Daylight

 

Site: Georgia Dome in Atlanta

Network: CBS

Time	Favorite	Underdog	Line
9:23 PM	Louisville (34-5)	Michigan (31-7)	4

Elite 8 Record: 1-1

Tournament Total: 39-23

Teams Remaining In Bracket: 1 of  2  (Louisville)

 

PiRate Ratings Criteria Formula Statistics

Criteria	Louisville	Michigan
Scoring Margin	16.0	12.4
FG% Margin	6.4	6.0
Rebound Margin	3.6	3.1
Turnover Margin	5.9	2.8
Steals	10.8	6.2
R+T	12.84	7.58
SOS	59.41	55.94
RD W%	82.6	70.0
Qualifiers	6	4
PiRate #	84.22	56.53
Modified	123.92	65.03

 

PiRate Criteria Means for 2000-2012 National Champions

 

Criteria	Champ Avg.
Scoring Margin	15.5
FG% Margin	8.7
Rebound Margin	6.2
Turnover Margin	1.3
Steals	7.8
R+T	9.29
SOS	57.09
RD W%	73.8
Qualifiers	7
PiRate #	75.88
Modified	94.78

 

 

Louisville Cardinals

Roster

#	NAME	HT	WT	POS	CL	HOMETOWN (PREVIOUS SCHOOL)
2	Russ Smith	6-00	165	G	JR	Brooklyn, N.Y. (Archbishop Molloy/South Kent)
3	Peyton Siva	6-00	185	G	SR	Seattle, Wash. (Franklin)
5	Kevin Ware	6-02	175	G	SO	Bronx, N.Y. (Rockdale County (Ga.))
10	Gorgui Dieng	6-11	245	C	JR	Kebemer, Senegal (Covenant/Huntington Prep)
11	Luke Hancock	6-06	200	F	JR	Roanoke, Va. (George Mason)
12	Mangok Mathiang	6-10	200	C	FR	Melbourne, Australia (IMG Academy (Fla.))
14	Logan Baumann	6-00	165	G	FR	Hartford, Ky. (Ohio County)
15	Tim Henderson	6-02	195	G	JR	Louisville, Ky. (Christian Academy)
20	Wayne Blackshear	6-05	230	G/F	SO	Chicago, Ill. (Morgan Park)
21	Chane Behanan	6-06	250	F	SO	Cincinnati, Ohio (Bowling Green)
22	Jordan Bond	6-00	165	G	FR	Louisville, Ky. (duPont Manual)
24	Montrezl Harrell	6-08	235	F	FR	Tarboro, N.C. (Hargrave Military Academy)
25	Zach Price	6-10	250	C	SO	Cleveland, Ohio (Jeffersontown)
32	Michael Baffour	6-02	170	G	JR	Lexington, Ky. (Bryan Station)
33	Mike Marra	6-05	215	G	SR	Smithfield, R.I. (Northfield Mt. Hermon School)
44	Stephan Van Treese	6-09	245	F	SR	Indianapolis, Ind. (Lawrence North)

 

Coach: Rick Pitino 12^th year at UL: 309-111

28 seasons overall: 663-239

(Hawaii, Boston U, Providence, Kentucky, Louisville)

 

Team Stats—Louisville

Player	G	GS	Min	FG	FGA	FG%	3pt	3ptA	3pt%	FT	FTA
Russ Smith	39	39	1179	229	544	.421	61	183	.333	220	273
Gorgi Dieng	32	31	989	121	228	.531	0	0	.000	73	112
Peyton Siva	39	39	1211	133	329	.404	38	130	.292	79	92
Chane Behanan	38	36	990	146	288	.507	1	12	.083	73	135
Luke Hancock	39	8	867	92	220	.418	58	153	.379	60	78
Wayne Blackshear	38	33	763	102	243	.420	43	136	.316	43	62
Montrezl Harrell	39	3	637	96	167	.575	0	0	.000	32	63
Kevin Ware	37	1	616	59	132	.447	15	37	.405	34	51
Stephan Van Treese	36	1	412	26	40	.650	0	0	.000	12	17
Zach Price	16	7	123	8	15	.533	0	0	.000	4	8
Tim Henderson	26	0	98	8	23	.348	6	20	.300	0	0
Logan Baumann	4	0	11	0	4	.000	0	0	.000	2	2
Michael Baffour	6	0	12	0	3	.000	0	2	.000	2	4
Jordan Bond	5	0	17	0	3	.000	0	2	.000	0	0
Totals	39	39	7925	1020	2239	.456	222	675	.329	634	897
Opponents	39	39	7925	800	2041	.392	213	678	.314	462	705
Player	FT%	F	DQ	Ast	TO	Bk	Stl	Reb	Avg	Pts	Avg
Russ Smith	.806	98	0	114	105	2	83	131	3.4	739	18.9
Gorgi Dieng	.652	81	3	60	57	80	43	302	9.4	315	9.8
Peyton Siva	.859	100	3	223	104	6	86	88	2.3	383	9.8
Chane Behanan	.541	66	0	41	60	16	53	242	6.4	366	9.6
Luke Hancock	.769	80	1	52	39	3	38	104	2.7	302	7.7
Wayne Blackshear	.694	95	0	24	24	10	33	121	3.2	290	7.6
Montrezl Harrell	.508	50	0	8	23	27	20	145	3.7	224	5.7
Kevin Ware	.667	58	1	31	42	4	39	66	1.8	167	4.5
Stephan Van Treese	.706	45	0	9	13	11	18	114	3.2	64	1.8
Zach Price	.500	23	0	0	5	5	1	22	1.4	20	1.3
Tim Henderson	.000	7	0	3	6	1	6	12	0.5	22	0.8
Logan Baumann	1.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	0.8	2	0.5
Michael Baffour	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.2	2	0.3
Jordan Bond	.000	1	0	1	0	0	1	3	0.6	0	0.0
Team					7			85	2.2
Totals	.707	705	8	566	486	165	421	1439	36.9	2896	74.3
Opponents	.655	751	X	398	718	129	221	1300	33.3	2275	58.3

 

 

Schedule

Opponent	Score
MANHATTAN	79-51
SAMFORD	80-54
MIAMI (OH)	80-39
vs NORTHERN IOWA  (Bahamas)	51-46
vs MISSOURI  (Bahamas)	84-61
vs DUKE  (Bahamas)	71-76
ILLINOIS STATE	69-66
at COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON	80-38
MISSOURI-KANSAS CITY	99-47
at MEMPHIS	87-78
FIU	79-55
vs WESTERN KENTUCKY  (Nashville)	78-55
KENTUCKY	80-77
PROVIDENCE	80-62
at SETON HALL	73-58
USF	64-38
at CONNECTICUT	73-58
SYRACUSE	68-70
at VILLANOVA	64-73
at GEORGETOWN	51-53
PITTSBURGH	64-61
MARQUETTE	70-51
at RUTGERS	68-48
at NOTRE DAME	101-104
ST. JOHN‘S	72-58
at USF	59-41
SETON HALL	79-61
at DEPAUL	79-58
at SYRACUSE	58-53
CINCINNATI	67-51
NOTRE DAME	73-57
vs VILLANOVA  (BE Tourn.)	74-55
vs NOTRE DAME  (BE Tourn.)	69-57
vs SYRACUSE  (BE Tourn.)	78-61
vs NORTH CAROLINA A&T  (ncaa)	79-48
vs COLORADO STATE  (ncaa)	82-56
vs OREGON  (ncaa)	77-69
vs DUKE  (ncaa)	85-63
vs WICHITA STATE  (ncaa)	72-68

 

 

Michigan Wolverines

Roster

#	Name	Ht.	Wt.	Pos.	Year	Hometown (High School)
1	Glenn Robinson III	6-06	210	F	FR	St. John, Ind. (Lake Central)
2	Spike Albrecht	5-11	170	G	FR	Crown Pt., Ind. (Northfield Mt. Hermon Prep MA)
3	Trey Burke	6-01	190	G	SO	Columbus, Ohio (Northland)
4	Mitch McGary	6-10	250	F	FR	Chesterton, Ind. (Brewster Academy [N.H.])
5	Eso Akunne	6-02	225	G	SR	Ann Arbor, Mich. (Gabriel Richard)
10	Tim Hardaway Jr.	6-06	205	G	JR	Miami, Fla. (Palmetto Senior)
11	Nik Stauskas	6-06	190	G	FR	Mississauga, Ontario (St. Mark’s School MA)
13	Matt Vogrich	6-04	200	G	SR	Lake Forest, Ill. (Lake Forest)
15	Jon Horford	6-10	250	F	SO	Grand Ledge, Mich. (Grand Ledge)
20	Josh Bartelstein	6-03	210	G	SR	Highland Pk., Ill. (Phillips Exeter Acad. [N.H.])
22	Blake McLimans	6-10	240	F	SR	Hamburg, N.Y. (Worcester Academy [Mass.])
23	Caris LeVert	6-05	170	G	FR	Pickerington, Ohio (Central)
32	Corey Person	6-03	210	G	GS	Kalamazoo, Mich. (Central)
44	Max Bielfeldt	6-07	245	F	FR	Peoria, Ill. (Notre Dame)
52	Jordan Morgan	6-08	250	F	JR	Detroit, Mich. (University of Detroit Jesuit)

 

Coach: John Beilein 6^th year at UM: 122-84

35 seasons overall: 673-402

(Erie CC, Nazareth, LeMoyne, Canisius, Richmond, West Virginia, Michigan)

 

Team Stats

Michigan Wolverines
Player	G	GS	Min	FG	FGA	FG%	3pt	3ptA	3pt%	FT	FTA
Trey Burke	38	38	1352	252	549	.459	73	193	.378	126	157
Tim Hardaway, Jr.	37	37	1289	196	447	.438	73	191	.382	75	107
Nik Stauskas	38	32	1171	137	296	.463	79	180	.439	74	87
Glenn Robinson, III	38	38	1274	164	288	.569	23	70	.329	65	97
Mitch McGary	38	7	740	131	218	.601	0	0	.000	23	52
Jordan Morgan	35	27	565	71	121	.587	0	0	.000	22	41
Jon Horford	31	4	276	34	59	.576	0	0	.000	19	27
Caris LeVert	32	1	344	28	88	.318	13	42	.310	7	14
Spike Albrecht	38	0	289	22	50	.440	14	28	.500	9	10
Eso Akunne	18	0	51	8	26	.308	4	12	.333	1	2
Max Bielfeldt	20	0	106	9	20	.450	0	2	.000	5	12
Matt Vogrich	26	6	125	9	27	.333	5	19	.263	3	4
Corey Person	13	0	43	3	7	.429	2	3	.667	2	3
Blake McLimans	16	0	20	4	15	.267	2	11	.182	1	2
Josh Bartelstein	6	0	10	0	1	.000	0	0	.000	0	2
Totals	38	38	7655	1068	2212	.483	288	751	.383	432	617
Opponents	38	38	7655	913	2160	.423	234	729	.321	325	480
Player	FT%	F	DQ	Ast	TO	Bk	Stl	Reb	Avg	Pts	Avg
Trey Burke	.803	69	0	257	82	19	62	120	3.2	703	18.5
Tim Hardaway, Jr.	.701	73	0	89	69	17	26	172	4.6	540	14.6
Nik Stauskas	.851	23	0	50	43	9	21	114	3.0	427	11.2
Glenn Robinson, III	.670	43	0	41	32	10	39	209	5.5	416	10.9
Mitch McGary	.442	88	0	24	46	27	41	240	6.3	285	7.5
Jordan Morgan	.537	50	1	13	33	3	15	153	4.4	164	4.7
Jon Horford	.704	45	0	9	14	16	8	69	2.2	87	2.8
Caris LeVert	.500	38	0	25	9	2	5	33	1.0	76	2.4
Spike Albrecht	.900	23	0	28	12	1	12	30	0.8	67	1.8
Eso Akunne	.500	4	0	5	1	0	0	12	0.7	21	1.2
Max Bielfeldt	.417	8	0	3	3	1	3	31	1.6	23	1.2
Matt Vogrich	.750	8	0	5	3	0	2	23	0.9	26	1.0
Corey Person	.667	4	0	2	1	0	0	1	0.1	10	0.8
Blake McLimans	.500	4	0	1	1	1	1	13	0.8	11	0.7
Josh Bartelstein	.000	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.0	0	0.0
Team					7			119	3.1
Totals	.700	481	1	553	356	106	236	1339	35.2	2856	75.2
Opponents	.677	583	10	476	461	121	200	1219	32.1	2385	62.8

 

 

Schedule

Opponent	Score
vs. Slippery Rock	100-62
vs. IUPUI TV (nit)	91-54
vs. Cleveland State (nit)	77-47
(n) Pittsburgh (nit)	67-62
(n) Kansas State (nit)	71-57
vs. No. 18 North Carolina State	79-72
at Bradley	74-66
vs. Western Michigan	73-41
vs. Arkansas	80-67
vs. Binghamton	67-39
(n) West Virginia (Brooklyn)	81-66
vs. Eastern Michigan	93-54
vs. Central Michigan	88-73
at Northwestern	94-66
vs. Iowa	95-67
vs. Nebraska	62-47
at No. 15 Ohio State	53-56
at No. 9 Minnesota	83-75
vs. Purdue	68-53
at Illinois	74-60
vs. Northwestern	68-46
at No. 3 Indiana	73-81
vs. No. 10 Ohio State	76-74 ot
at Wisconsin	62-65 ot
at Michigan State	52-75
vs. Penn State	79-71
vs. Illinois	71-58
at Penn State	78-84
vs. No. 9 Michigan State	58-57
at Purdue	80-75
vs. No. 2 Indiana	71-72
vs. Penn State (B10)	83-66
vs. No. 22 Wisconsin (B10)	59-68
vs. South Dakota State ncaa	71-56
vs. VCU ncaa	78-53
vs. No. 3 Kansas ncaa	87-85 ot
vs. No. 14 Florida ncaa	79-59
vs. No. 8 Syracuse ncaa	61-56

 

Positional Matchups

Point Guard: Louisville—(3) Peyton Siva               Michigan—(3)Trey Burke

This is where Michigan has to have a big night.  Burke is ice cold in the tournament so far, hitting a paltry 23-71 from the field and 8-31 from three-point territory.  The Wolverines were able to overcome Burke’s cold shooting, but the Cardinals will shut off the UM inside game on enough possessions to force Burke to beat them from the outside.

 

Siva is a talented play-maker and even better defender, so Burke may not get many open looks.  Siva does not have to score to be effective.  He is just one of several secondary options on the Cardinals’ team.  A steal at a key juncture of this game could change momentum and become the deciding factor in a close game, and Siva is much more likely to get that steal than any Michigan player.

 

Advantage: Push

 

Shooting Guard: Louisville—(2) Russ Smith          Michigan—(10) Tim Hardaway, Jr.

Smith has been hot during the tournament, and he has oftentimes carried the offensive load for Pitino.  He can be a streaky shooter, and in the last two weeks, that streak has been scorching to the nets.  Beilein’s game plan must start with keeping the ball away from him as much as possible.

 

Hardaway is a quality 2-guard who would be superior to about 62 of the other teams in the Big Dance.  However, Louisville is not one of those teams.  He will need help handling Smith, and he will need to use a lot of additional energy helping Burke against the Cardinals’ Matchup Press defense.

 

Advantage: Louisville

 

Small Forward: Louisville—(20) Wayne Blackshear        Michigan—(11) Nik Stauskas

This is the weakest position in this game, but it could become vitally important.  Stauskas is a hit or miss proposition.  If he hits a three-pointer early, his confidence could lead him to following that up with several more.  If Louisville’s perimeter is too quick for him, and he cannot get open looks, he will disappear on offense and not be much help on defense.

 

Blackshear is a proven commodity, but that commodity is not blue-chip.  He is a tough, hard-worker who will muscle his way on the boards and play consistent defense, but he will not win or lose this game.  Pitino knows what he will get from him and knows he will be rather consistent.

 

Advantage: Wildcard (It is a push, but only because Stauskas has a 50% chance of having a large advantage or large disadvantage depending on which Stauskas shows up).

 

Power Forward: Louisville—(21) Chane Behanan           Michigan—(1) Glenn Robinson, III

This should be a great matchup between like-minded players.  Both opponents help their teammates and make them look better, but neither player can carry the load.

 

Look for both players to score around 10 points and get 8 rebounds.  Behanan may be a little better inside, while Robinson is a little better helping on the perimeter.

 

Advantage: Push

 

Center: Louisville—(10) Gorgui Dieng       Michigan—(4) Mitch McGary

This position features two future NBA players that are just starting to reach their potentials.  Dieng is a fantastic defensive stopper in the paint, and he can imitate Dikembe Mutombo in the Geico commercials.  He is also a major force on the boards, and he can grab the ball on both ends of the floor.  His ability to stop the dribble-drive gives the rest of the team an opportunity to gamble in the press.

 

McGary is more of a prototypical post player.  He has more moves on the offensive end, and when the inside is crowded, he can locate the open perimeter and deliver a sharp, accurate pass that allows his teammate to shoot quickly.

 

Advantage: Michigan

 

Bench:

Pitino uses his bench more the Beilein, but when the Michigan reserves are in the game, they contribute without weakening the team.

 

The loss of Kevin Ware takes away a considerable part of the Cardinals’ bench production, but on the other hand, his teammates will get a boost with him there to cheer them on.

 

Advantage: Push

Our Pick: Here is how we see this game.  In the first half, both teams will be a little tight, and scoring will be rather low, much like the norm for this season.  It will appear to be dull for the first 10-12 minutes with the scoring at a sub-100-point pace (something like 12-10).

 

The offenses will step up and start to get untracked in the final 8 minutes of the half, and Louisville will finish on a mini-run to go into the locker room with a small lead (28-25 or so).

 

Michigan will gain some momentum early in the second half and have their best showing of the night during the first two of the four-minute stretches.  The Wolverines will take the lead and gain a little momentum, with the score looking like 37-34 with 12 minutes to play.

 

At this point, the Wolverines will start to tire.  Their starters played too many minutes in the semifinal win over Syracuse, and the relentless Cardinal pressure will start to have an effect.  A couple of turnovers and some forced shots due to fatigue will allow Louisville to regain the lead.  Beilein will have to take a timeout with UL leading 43-39 with 9 minutes left.

 

After a brief recovery, the fatigue will prove fatal, and Louisville will go for the jugular with a big run.  By the under 4 timeout, the Cardinals will have a nice cushion, something like 55-46.  Michigan will begin to force multiple ill-advised shots, and Louisville will get a couple of cheap baskets to ice the game.  A couple of late three-pointers will give the Wolverine fans some hope, but the Cardinals will hit some foul shots to clinch the national title.

 

FINAL SCORE: Louisville 62  Michigan 55

 

 

Sweet 16 Preview

 

From Sweet to Elite

Advanced Level Bracketnomics

 

Hello PiRate Basketball fans.  Our system worked well, but the idiots (us) in charge of the data didn’t have the guts to play all the upsets.  We still have nine teams alive, and our top-rated teams according to our system are still there, except for Kansas. 

We told you in the first round that Georgetown and Vanderbilt were the most ripe for upset bids based on their R+T scores just barely above zero.  We were there on other double-digit ups as well.

Before we preview the Sweet 16 games, let’s refresh you on the PiRate formula components.

Scoring Margin—We look for teams with a minimum scoring margin of 8 points per game, give precedence to teams with double-digit scoring margins, and develop huge crushes on teams with scoring margins of 15 or more points per game.  We award one point for as little as a 5-point scoring margin, 3 points for 8 or more, and 5 points for 10 or more. 

Teams with a negative margin who have made it to the Sweet 16 are eliminated and are automatically picked to lose the next game (unless of course there is a rare instance of their opponent also qualifying for elimination.)

Field Goal % Margin—We look for teams that have a +7.5 or better difference in field goal percentage versus opponents’ field goal percentage.  We give special consideration to teams with double-digit field goal percentage margins, and if we see a team hitting better than 48.0% and yielding less than 38.0%, we circle that team in red because they are going to be tough to beat if they are a member of one of the Big Six conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, or SEC).  We award one point for FG% margins of 5.0 or more, 3 points for margins of 7.5% or more, and 5 points for double-digit margins. 

Like above, teams arriving at the Sweet 16 with a negative field goal margin are eliminated.

Rebound Margin—This is actually part of a multiple statistical entry, as we combine it with turnover margin as well.  However, we do separate rebounding because offensive put backs are vitally important in the Big Dance.  We are looking for teams with a +5.0 or better rebounding margin.  We award one point for a rebounding margin of 3.0 or better and 3 points for a margin of 5.0 or better. 

Teams with a negative rebounding margin receive -2 points, but they are not eliminated yet.

Turnover Margin & Steals Per Game—Teams with negative rebounding margins can make up for it with exceptional turnover margins, especially if they get a lot of steals that lead to great fast break opportunities.  We don’t award points solely on turnover margin and steals; we incorporate those stats into a multi-statistical formula we call “R+T.” 

R+T is a formula that applies weighted advantages to steals and turnover margin, while adding rebounding margin into the equation.  Rebounding margin is already factored into the formula by itself, but it receives fewer awarded points.  This stat balances out the rebounding with the scoring and field goal margin, and it allows us to look at the number of extra scoring opportunities a team normally receives. 

The Formula for R+T is:  R+ (.2S*1.2T), where R is rebounding margin, S is steals per game, and T is turnover margin.  Whenever this stat is negative, this team is immediately eliminated.  If this stat is less than one, don’t figure on this team staying around in the Dance.  All four teams that fell below one in R+T lost in the first round, including heavy favored Georgetown and Vanderbilt.  We award the result of the R+T in points.

Power Conference & Strength of Schedule—We give extra weight to teams that are members of the Big Six conferences.  We give a little weight to the teams from the top of the mid-majors (such as Missouri Valley, West Coast, Colonial, and Mountain West).  We deduct for teams from the lower conferences (such as America East, MAAC, Big West, and Patriot). 

We look at the strength of schedule as produced by cbssports.com, and multiply that number by 100.  50.00 is a mid-point, so if that number is 52.37, we consider that schedule to be 2.37 points stronger than average.  If the number is 46.28, then that schedule is 3.72 points weaker than average.  This is incorporated into our criteria.

Record Away From Home—Every team is playing on a neutral floor, so we throw out the home won-loss records.  A team that is 26-9 overall, but 17-0 at home is actually a .500 team away from home.  Likewise, in some rare instances a team might be 22-10 with a home record of 14-6 and a record away from home of 8-4.  Winning two –thirds of one’s games away from home would make this team more likely to beat the 26-9 team on a neutral floor, all else being equal.

Before the first round, our formula picked Duke as the overall favorite based on their 34.4 PiRate score.  The Blue Devils no longer own the top score after the first two rounds.  Their criteria score fell a little, while another team elevated just enough to post a higher score.  The new leader in the clubhouse is none other than Kansas State.  This surprised us all here, but the Wildcats were impressive in wins over North Texas and BYU.  Their defense was stifling, and their offense, while not spectacular, clicked in spurts.  KSU controlled the boards in both games as well.

The Wildcats have had few great moments since in the last 20+ years.  This team is starting to bring back memories of the glory days in the Little Apple when Tex Winter introduced his triple-post (triangle) offense and Jack Gardner had the Cats running and gunning.

Of the 16 teams remaining, five come from conferences outside of the Big Six conferences, but each of the quintet’s PiRate criteria scores reveals that they belong in the Sweet 16.  None of the five (none of the entire 16) have scores in single digits.

Now, it’s time to look at the eight, Sweet 16 games, using these criteria.  The number you see in (Parentheses) after the team is their PiRate Criteria Score.  All of these scores have been update to reflect their two wins in the Big Dance.                                                                            

 

East Regional

 

#1 Kentucky (29.22) vs. #12 Cornell (14.56)

The Wildcats are the one team that also qualifies in the 48-38% field goal margin.  John Calipari no longer officially owns any Final Four appearances to his name, after the NCAA upheld the vacating of all Memphis wins during Derrick Rose’s playing career (his U Mass team had to vacate that appearance as well).  So, we can say he is still looking for his first official visit to the Final Four.  We don’t know with 100% certainty if the Wildcats will make it there, but we are safe in saying they will be one of the Elite 8.  Cornell cannot stop DeMarcus Cousins inside unless they totally sell out on the perimeter.  John Wall and Eric Bledsoe will make the Big Red pay for that tactic, and then Patrick Patterson will break their backs if he hits a three.

Cornell might stay close through one or two TV timeouts, but this game should get out of hand before halftime.

 

Prediction: Kentucky 88  Cornell 64

 

#2 West Virginia (29.08) vs. #11 Washington (21.93)

West Virginia wins ugly.  The Mountaineers don’t look pretty, but they keep pounding at opponents until they see an opening.  Then, like a crafty boxer, they exploit that opening and grab the lead on points.  They rarely record a knockout, but they are great at keeping the lead once they get it in the final half.

Washington does look pretty when they play.  Lorenzo Romar’s teams vaguely resemble many of the great UCLA teams from the past.  With Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas providing a great one-two punch, it is hard to stop the Huskies from scoring 70 or more points.

West Virginia doesn’t usually win games if they give up more than 75 points.  Coach Bob Huggins will devise a game plan to force UW’s big threats to work harder for open shots, and Washington will not reach 75 points in this game.

Prediction: West Virginia 73  Washington 66

 

South Regional

 

#3 Baylor (26.04) vs. #10 St. Mary’s (15.47)

This looks like a classic mismatch between a power team from a power conference and a team that should be just glad to have made it this far.  It could be, but we like the way St. Mary’s plays, and we think Coach Randy Bennett is possibly the next Lute Olsen if he so chooses to move on to a school from one of the Big Six conferences.

This will be a great battle between big men.  Baylor’s Ekpe Udoh and St, Mary’s Omar Samhan should balance each other out.  Samhan is a little better offensively, but Udoh is a little better defensively.  Samhan is the more likely to get in foul trouble.

Baylor has more potent weapons in LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter, but the Gaels have more depth.  We just don’t see the Bears running away with this game.  We will pick them to advance.

Prediction: Baylor 78  St. Mary’s 71

 

#1 Duke (30.48) vs. #4 Purdue (15.37)

Credit must be given to the Boilermakers for making it this far without Robbie Hummel.  They played hard and won a couple of tough games.  Unfortunately, Purdue goes up against one of the big boys.  This is their final game of the season.

Duke may have fallen a notch in winning their first two games, but having to play the play-in winner lowered their strength of schedule.  Emptying the bench may have artificially lowered their criteria score, and we still think Coach K is sitting pretty with his club in a great bracket.

Prediction: Duke 81  Purdue 67

 

Midwest Regional

 

#2 Ohio State (22.24) vs. #6 Tennessee (21.16)

These may not be the two best teams left in the Big Dance, or even in this regional, but they may be the two best-coached teams.  Buckeye head guy Thad Matta has definitely produced a better record than his talent on hand should have produced, and Volunteer coach Bruce Pearl has squeezed every last drop of juice out of his big orange.

Two years ago, when Ohio State was the top-rated team, Tennessee built up a 20-point lead against OSU, before the Buckeyes chipped away and came back for the win in this same round.  Vol center Wayne Chism can remember that game well.

We look for this to possibly be the most entertaining game of this round, but we have to go with the Big Ten in this one.  Tennessee is having to go with players that would be considered bench-warmers at Ohio State for almost one quarter of the available playing time.  Pearl will either have to play five reserves for their usual 48 combined minutes per game or go with his top seven until they drop.  Either way, it tips the scale in favor of Brutus.

Prediction: Ohio State 69  Tennessee 63

 

#5 Michigan State (20.92) vs. #9 Northern Iowa (13.76)

This is another game where we have to discount a team for the loss of a player.  Spartan star guard Kalin Lucas is out for the rest of the year with a ruptured Achilles tendon.  He is the Spartans’ leading scorer, leader at getting to the foul line, leading passer, and best perimeter defender.  Losing him is almost like losing Magic Johnson. 

One thing MSU still has in its favor is a brutalizing inside force with a three-headed rebounding monster.  Raymar Morgan, Draymond Green, and Delvon Roe will see to it that Northern Iowa will not get many second-chance points.

Northern Iowa is primed to exploit MSU’s misfortune, but we expect the Panthers to come out flat following the huge upset over Kansas.  Jordan Eglseder is going to need help inside as the Spartans attempt to force their offense to score inside the paint.  Adam Koch cannot afford to risk foul trouble, so we see some difficulty here for NIU.  We also do not believe that Ali Farokhmanesh will drain threes all night in this game.  We can see him going 2 for 9.

It’s rather obvious that this is going to be a very low-scoring game, at least until the final minutes when one team may be getting a dozen trips to the foul line.

Prediction: Michigan State 56  Northern Iowa 51

 

 

West Regional

 

#1 Syracuse (27.88) vs. #5 Butler (19.35)

Quickness over brute force strength should be the difference in this game.  Syracuse has been flying a little bit under the radar so far, and the Orangemen are about to reveal to the rest of the nation that they are an Elite 8 team. 

Butler cannot be overlooked, as the Bulldogs are now the best team in the Hoosier state.  However, Butler doesn’t have the horses to exploit the cracks in the SU 2-3 matchup zone.  We see the Bulldogs going through stretches where they cannot score, and you can’t beat Syracuse that way.

A ‘Cuse win should set up the best Regional Final of the four, regardless of their opponent on Saturday.

Prediction: Syracuse 74  Butler 60

 

#2 Kansas State (31.21) vs. #6 Xavier (18.37)

Xavier has become a household name in the Big Dance, so it’s no longer much of a surprise to see the Musketeers advancing in this tournament.  They just happened to get the wrong team in the Sweet 16, because we just cannot see them matching up inside against the purple and white.  Kansas State can bring two wide-bodies off the bench, and the Wildcats’ guards can hit the glass as well.

The storyline of this game is that KSU will hold Xavier under 40% from the field and rarely give the Musketeers an offensive rebound.  Teams just don’t win in the Sweet 16 unless they can either control the boards of shoot a high percentage.

We look for the Wildcats to set up the game of the tournament in the West Regional Finals on Saturday.

Prediction: Kansas State 77  Xavier 61

 

Check back with us Saturday before game time for a preview of the Elite 8 Regional Final games.

 

Pro Football Computer Simulation: Week 17–December 29, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation

Week 17-December 28, 2008

 

The regular season of year two in the Pro Football Computer Simulation League has now concluded with the final week of games simulated Sunday evening.

 

The playoffs will begin next week, and I have included the playoff schedule following this week’s recaps.

 

1981 Cincinnati  31  2003 Kansas City  21

Pete Johnson rushed for 137 yards and two scores, and Ken Anderson passed for two others, as the Bengals finished with a winning record, but just barely missed out on the 6^th playoff berth in the AFC.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1981 Cin	10	0	14	7		31
2003 KC	0	14	0	7		21
		Cin	Stat	KC
		19	FD	17
		36-154	Rush-Yds	32-115
		192	Pass Yds	211
		16-27-0	Passes	19-34-1
		0-0	Sacks	0-0
		5-42.4	Punt	6-43.3
		2-19	PR	3-26
		6-40	Pen	5-51
		1-0	Fum	0-0
		63	Play	66
		346	Tot Yds	326

 

1999 St. Louis  27  1998 Atlanta  17

Kurt Warner passed for two touchdowns, and the Rams’ defense forced Atlanta into three turnovers in St. Louis territory, as the Rams earned home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1998 Atl	3	0	0	14		17
1999 Stl	10	3	7	7		27
		Atl	Stat	Stl
		16	FD	22
		32-121	Rush-Yds	33-129
		158	Pass Yds	294
		13-25-2	Passes	21-34-1
		2-14	Sacks	1-7
		6-41.8	Punt	4-42.8
		2-13	PR	3-51
		7-68	Pen	5-35
		2-1	Fum	1-0
		59	Play	68
		265	Tot Yds	416

 

2007 New England 38  1990 Buffalo  17

Tom Brady completed his first 14 passes and finished the day with 4 TD tosses, as the Patriots topped the 500 point mark for the season.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1990 Buf	0	7	3	7		17
2007 NE	14	10	7	7		38
		Buf	Stat	NE
		15	FD	24
		18-55	Rush-Yds	33-128
		203	Pass Yds	335
		18-31-2	Passes	26-36-0
		3-23	Sacks	1-5
		6-40.5	Punt	2-39.5
		0-0	PR	2-43
		7-55	Pen	6-40
		1-0	Fum	1-1
		52	Play	70
		235	Tot Yds	458

 

1996 Green Bay  34  1991 Detroit  14

All season long, the Packers relied on a strong offense to outscore opponents, but in clinching the NFC North, it was the defense that led the way.  The green and gold stop troops held Barry Sanders to 71 yards rushing on 18 attempts; the Packer front line recorded two sacks on crucial third down plays; and they intercepted two passes that set up a touchdown and field goal.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1996 GB	13	7	14	0		34
1991 Det	0	0	7	7		14
		GB	Stat	Det
		20	FD	16
		34-149	Rush-Yds	26-110
		289	Pass Yds	167
		22-35-1	Passes	15-28-2
		0-0	Sacks	2-15
		5-47.0	Punt	6-43.7
		3-79	PR	2-14
		5-44	Pen	4-33
		2-0	Fum	2-1
		69	Play	56
		438	Tot Yds	262

 

2005 Indianapolis 30  2000 Tennessee  16

Peyton Manning completed three touchdown passes to Marvin Harrison, as the Colts knocked off the Titans to claim the final AFC playoff berth.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2005 Ind	14	10	3	3		30
2000 Ten	3	3	3	7		16
		Ind	Stat	Ten
		23	FD	14
		41-172	Rush-Yds	25-79
		257	Pass Yds	155
		19-27-0	Passes	13-28-2
		0-0	Sacks	2-19
		4-41.8	Punt	7-43.9
		3-26	PR	2-77
		5-45	Pen	7-62
		2-2	Fum	2-1
		68	Play	55
		429	Tot Yds	215

 

2000 Baltimore  20  1999 Jacksonville  10

The Ravens averaged just 14 points all season, but their defense yielded just 13.  Sunday, Baltimore held Jacksonville to just 72 yards and four first downs through the first three quarters and will enter the playoffs with the top defense in the league.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2000 Bal	3	7	10	0		20
1999 Jac	0	3	0	7		10
		Bal	Stat	Jac
		16	FD	8
		42-177	Rush-Yds	27-47
		129	Pass Yds	138
		11-21-0	Passes	12-27-3
		0-0	Sacks	5-39
		6-42.3	Punt	8-41.5
		5-69	PR	3-22
		8-82	Pen	6-47
		0-0	Fum	2-1
		63	Play	59
		306	Tot Yds	146

 

1985 Chicago  27  2007 Houston  0

The Bears’ defense kept the Texans on their side of the field all day and posted the shutout, while Walter Payton rushed for 182 yards and two touchdowns.  Chicago finished in a three-way tie for first in the NFC North, but the Packers won the tiebreaker.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2007 Hou	0	0	0	0		0
1985 Chi	7	3	7	10		27
		Hou	Stat	Chi
		6	FD	24
		11-19	Rush-Yds	56-242
		153	Pass Yds	173
		13-29-2	Passes	11-19-0
		7-57	Sacks	0-0
		9-38.8	Punt	5-44.6
		1-11	PR	6-74
		6-55	Pen	7-70
		2-1	Fum	1-0
		47	Play	75
		115	Tot Yds	415

 

2002 Tampa Bay  26  2000 Oakland  10

The Buccaneers played a solid game for four quarters, as the offense held onto the ball for almost 36 minutes, and the defense held Oakland at bay.  With the win, Tampa Bay clinched the NFC South Division.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2002 TB	3	3	6	14		26
2000 Oak	0	7	3	0		10
		TB	Stat	Oak
		20	FD	13
		28-103	Rush-Yds	30-89
		266	Pass Yds	182
		19-35-1	Passes	13-28-1
		1-7	Sacks	2-19
		6-43.2	Punt	7-45.4
		4-51	PR	2-15
		5-38	Pen	9-90
		1-0	Fum	2-1
		64	Play	60
		362	Tot Yds	252

 

2005 Pittsburgh  27  1987 Cleveland  24

Willie Parker ran for 103 yards, and Chris Hope returned a Bernie Kosar interception 59 yards for a game-clinching score, as the Steelers came from behind to win.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2005 Pit	0	3	14	10		27
1987 Cle	7	7	3	7		24
		Pit	Stat	Cle
		19	FD	18
		31-143	Rush-Yds	16-59
		187	Pass Yds	341
		15-25-1	Passes	27-48-2
		2-12	Sacks	3-25
		5-41.6	Punt	5-40.0
		2-17	PR	2-23
		7-60	Pen	6-52
		2-1	Fum	1-0
		58	Play	67
		318	Tot Yds	375

 

1998 Minnesota  27  1986 New York Giants  17

Cris Carter and Randy Moss both topped 100 receiving yards, as the Vikings kept pace in the NFC North with Chicago and Green Bay.  The Giants were eliminated from the playoffs with the loss.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1998 Min	3	14	7	3		27
1986 NYG	7	0	7	3		17
		Min	Stat	NYG
		19	FD	18
		36-137	Rush-Yds	29-111
		242	Pass Yds	238
		16-28-1	Passes	15-29-2
		1-8	Sacks	2-21
		5-42.8	Punt	7-42.7
		4-57	PR	3-34
		8-78	Pen	6-45
		1-1	Fum	1-0
		65	Play	60
		371	Tot Yds	328

 

1987 New Orleans  28  1996 Carolina  23

Bobby Hebert passed for 201 yards and three touchdowns in the final period, as the Saints came from 16 points down to win and edge out the Panthers for third place in the NFC South.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1987 NO	0	7	0	21		28
1996 Car	14	6	3	0		23
		NO	Stat	Car
		23	FD	15
		21-78	Rush-Yds	26-88
		401	Pass Yds	170
		29-51-1	Passes	14-26-1
		0-0	Sacks	1-9
		6-43.5	Punt	6-34.7
		4-69	PR	2-17
		4-25	Pen	7-50
		3-3	Fum	2-1
		72	Play	53
		479	Tot Yds	249

 

2004 Philadelphia  27  1992 Dallas  21

Donovan McNabb ran for 77 yards and two touchdowns, and passed for another, as the Eagles knocked Dallas out of the playoffs.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2004 Phi	3	7	10	7		27
1992 Dal	0	7	14	0		21
		Phi	Stat	Dal
		19	FD	18
		31-116	Rush-Yds	35-143
		223	Pass Yds	168
		17-30-1	Passes	14-25-1
		1-7	Sacks	2-16
		6-42.7	Punt	5-38.6
		1-(-2)	PR	4-38
		5-40	Pen	11-115
		2-0	Fum	2-1
		62	Play	62
		332	Tot Yds	295

 

 

1984 Miami  31  1998 New York Jets  21

Dan Marino topped 5,000 yards passing and 40 touchdowns for the season, as the Dolphins evened their record for the season.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1998 NYJ	6	8	7	0		21
1984 Mia	14	7	10	0		31
		NYJ	Stat	Mia
		16	FD	25
		24-91	Rush-Yds	22-60
		221	Pass Yds	403
		13-25-0	Passes	31-52-2
		1-6	Sacks	3-20
		6-41.8	Punt	5-47.6
		3-41	PR	2-30
		8-82	Pen	5-35
		2-0	Fum	2-1
		50	Play	77
		306	Tot Yds	443

 

2005 Seattle  24  1998 Arizona  7

In a game with little or nothing on the line, Shaun Alexander topped the 1,500 yard rushing mark, as the Seahawks cruised to the victory.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1998 Ari	0	0	7	0		7
2005 Sea	0	7	10	7		24
		Ari	Stat	Sea
		12	FD	19
		26-77	Rush-Yds	34-174
		172	Pass Yds	157
		18-37-3	Passes	14-24-0
		4-31	Sacks	1-6
		8-43.4	Punt	6-42.7
		3-22	PR	5-81
		5-38	Pen	6-44
		2-1	Fum	2-1
		67	Play	59
		218	Tot Yds	325

 

1998 Denver  21  2006 San Diego  17

With the AFC West Division title up for grabs, Terrell Davis and LaDainian Tomlinson put on a show for the simulated audience.  Davis rushed for 152 yard and two touchdowns, while Tomlinson rushed for 121 yard and two touchdowns.  The game-winner for the Broncos came when Trevor Pryce sacked Phillip Rivers and forced a fumble, which Rod Smith recovered and returned 39 yards for the score.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2006 SD	3	7	7	0		17
1998 Den	7	0	14	0		21
		SD	Stat	Den
		15	FD	17
		30-137	Rush-Yds	39-171
		133	Pass Yds	186
		12-22-1	Passes	17-25-0
		2-13	Sacks	0-0
		7-41.9	Punt	6-43.5
		4-54	PR	5-68
		6-52	Pen	6-50
		2-1	Fum	1-1
		54	Play	64
		257	Tot Yds	357

 

1984 San Francisco  27  1991 Washington  24

Matt Cavanaugh, subbing for the injured Joe Montana, came into the game in the fourth quarter and tossed touchdown passes to Freddie Solomon and Dwight Clark, as the 49ers erased an 11-point deficit to beat the Redskins.  Washington still won the NFC East thanks to losses by the Cowboys and Giants.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1984 SF	10	0	3	14		27
1991 Was	7	7	3	7		24
		SF	Stat	Was
		22	FD	18
		29-121	Rush-Yds	32-119
		267	Pass Yds	209
		23-38-1	Passes	16-27-1
		1-5	Sacks	2-13
		6-43.0	Punt	6-44.3
		3-22	PR	5-51
		5-30	Pen	4-37
		1-0	Fum	1-1
		68	Play	61
		383	Tot Yds	315

 

Final Regular Season Standings

Pro Football Computer Simulation League
National Football Conference
East Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
1991 Washington Redskins	9	7	0	327	259	102.0
1992 Dallas Cowboys	9	7	0	328	331	99.4
1986 New York Giants	8	8	0	266	238	100.5
2004 Philadelphia Eagles	6	10	0	283	305	97.7
North Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
1996 Green Bay Packers	12	4	0	481	259	115.6
1998 Minnesota Vikings	12	4	0	462	314	111.8
1985 Chicago Bears	12	4	0	344	218	110.1
1991 Detroit Lions	3	13	0	277	440	94.3
South Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	7	0	313	273	103.2
1998 Atlanta Falcons	8	8	0	304	390	96.7
1987 New Orleans Saints	7	9	0	321	322	101.6
1996 Carolina Panthers	6	10	0	323	389	96.8
West Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
1999 St. Louis Rams	12	4	0	481	363	105.8
1984 San Francisco 49ers	10	6	0	421	330	103.7
2005 Seattle Seahawks	7	9	0	308	402	94.7
1998 Arizona Cardinals	2	14	0	212	472	84.9
American Football Conference
East Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
2007 New England Patriots	11	5	0	530	360	108.6
1984 Miami Dolphins	8	8	0	470	498	97.3
1990 Buffalo Bills	7	9	0	415	397	99.7
1998 New York Jets	7	9	0	330	402	95.8
North Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
2000 Baltimore Ravens	13	3	0	230	206	99.2
1981 Cincinnati Bengals	9	7	0	328	310	98.5
1987 Cleveland Browns	4	12	0	267	386	92.0
2005 Pittsburgh Steelers	3	13	0	237	323	94.0
South Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
2000 Tennessee Titans	13	3	0	362	192	109.6
2005 Indianapolis Colts	9	7	0	407	382	102.9
1999 Jacksonville Jaguars	5	11	0	282	359	97.0
2007 Houston Texans	4	12	0	301	470	91.2
West Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
1998 Denver Broncos	12	4	0	465	324	106.7
2006 San Diego Chargers	10	6	0	380	332	102.0
2000 Oakland Raiders	6	10	0	338	383	96.4
2003 Kansas City Chiefs	3	13	0	348	523	90.2

 

 

Pro Football Computer Simulation League Playoffs

 

NFC Seedings

1. 1999 St. Louis Rams

2. 1996 Green Bay Packers

3. 1991 Washington Redskins

4. 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5. 1985 Chicago Bears

6. 1998 Minnesota Vikings

 

AFC Seedings

1. 2000 Tennessee Titans

2. 2000 Baltimore Ravens

3. 1998 Denver Broncos

4. 2007 New England Patriots

5. 2006 San Diego Chargers

6. 2005 Indianapolis Colts

 

First Round Schedule

 

1998 Minnesota Vikings at 1991 Washington Redskins

1985 Chicago Bears at 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2005 Indianapolis Colts at 1998 Denver Broncos

2006 San Diego Chargers at 2007 New England Patriots

 

Look here next Monday, January 5, 2009, for the results of the first round of the playoffs.  

 

Coming January 2, 2009: the results from the College Football Simulated Playoff semi-final round games-Southern Cal vs. Oklahoma and Florida vs. Texas.

Pro Football Computer Simulation For Week 16: December 22, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation For Week 16: December 22, 2008

 

Due to time constraints this week, I will just post the scores, standings, and stats for this week’s simulations.

 

This week’s scores:

2005 Indianapolis	31	1999 Jacksonville	20
2000 Baltimore	20	1992 Dallas	17
1991 Detroit	30	1987 New Orleans	21
1981 Cincinnati	24	1987 Cleveland	16
1984 Miami	35	2003 Kansas City	24
2000 Tennessee	21	2005 Pittsburgh	13
1991 Washington	27	2004 Philadelphia	17
1986 NY Giants	21	1996 Carolina	16
1984 San Francisco	31	1999 St. Louis	27
2007 New England	41	1998 Arizona	14
1998 Minnesota	34	1998 Atlanta	20
2000 Oakland	45	2007 Houston	17
2005 Seattle	24	1998 NY Jets	13
1998 Denver	28	1990 Buffalo	14
2006 San Diego	20	2002 Tampa Bay	19
1996 Green Bay	24	1985 Chicago	21

 

This week’s simulated game stats:

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1999 Jac	3	10	0	7		20
2005 Ind	10	7	7	7		31
		Jac	Stat	Ind
		16	FD	22
		35-117	Rush-Yds	36-172
		184	Pass Yds	231
		14-25-1	Passes	19-29-0
		1-7	Sacks	1-5
		6-43.2	Punt	4-46.3
		2-19	PR	3-40
		7-59	Pen	5-35
		1-0	Fum	1-1
		61	Play	66
		294	Tot Yds	398
Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1992 Dal	0	3	7	7		17
2000 Bal	7	3	3	7		20
		Dal	Stat	Bal
		9	FD	15
		32-66	Rush-Yds	42-113
		139	Pass Yds	127
		9-22-2	Passes	10-21-1
		3-18	Sacks	1-12
		8-41.6	Punt	7-40.6
		3-79	PR	5-52
		6-55	Pen	11-106
		2-0	Fum	2-1
		57	Play	64
		187	Tot Yds	228
Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1991 Det	3	10	10	7		30
1987 NO	0	7	14	0		21
		Det	Stat	NO
		22	FD	15
		47-229	Rush-Yds	17-45
		153	Pass Yds	212
		13-20-0	Passes	16-30-1
		2-13	Sacks	2-13
		3-47.3	Punt	5-44.6
		2-19	PR	1-17
		5-38	Pen	4-35
		1-0	Fum	2-1
		69	Play	49
		369	Tot Yds	244
Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1987 Cle	14	0	0	2		16
1981 Cin	3	14	7	0		24
		Cle	Stat	Cin
		16	FD	21
		31-138	Rush-Yds	46-215
		149	Pass Yds	129
		13-25-1	Passes	11-17-0
		4-26	Sacks	0-0
		6-40.3	Punt	4-39.8
		2-7	PR	4-33
		5-37	Pen	4-25
		1-1	Fum	1-0
		60	Play	63
		261	Tot Yds	344
Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2003 KC	7	3	14	0		24
1984 Mia	14	7	7	7		35
		KC	Stat	Mia
		18	FD	22
		25-93	Rush-Yds	31-88
		228	Pass Yds	341
		17-32-2	Passes	25-37-0
		3-20	Sacks	3-18
		4-38.8	Punt	4-45.5
		2-23	PR	1-9
		8-66	Pen	5-30
		0-0	Fum	1-0
		60	Play	71
		301	Tot Yds	411
Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2000 Ten	0	14	7	0		21
2005 Pit	3	10	0	0		13
		Ten	Stat	Pit
		16	FD
		40-157	Rush-Yds	22-67
		126	Pass Yds	231
		10-17-0	Passes	18-35-2
		0-0	Sacks	4-26
		5-43.6	Punt	7-41.3
		3-54	PR	2-15
		5-42	Pen	7-50
		1-0	Fum	2-1
		57	Play	61
		283	Tot Yds	272
Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1991 Was	3	0	21	3		27
2004 Phi	10	0	7	0		17
		Was	Stat	Phi
		21	FD	18
		41-193	Rush-Yds	24-81
		218	Pass Yds	248
		17-26-1	Passes	19-35-3
		1-7	Sacks	0-0
		5-42.4	Punt	5-40.8
		3-29	PR	2-13
		7-58	Pen	2-37
		1-0	Fum	2-1
		68	Play	59
		404	Tot Yds	329
Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1986 NYG	0	14	7	0		21
1996 Car	3	7	3	3		16
		NYG	Stat	Car
		18	FD	15
		41-149	Rush-Yds	17-62
		236	Pass Yds	236
		13-25-1	Passes	18-35-2
		2-15	Sacks	4-29
		6-44.8	Punt	7-42.1
		4-27	PR	2-14
		4-30	Pen	6-43
		2-1	Fum	1-1
		68	Play	56
		370	Tot Yds	269

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1999 Stl	10	7	7	3		27
1984 SF	14	7	0	10		31
		Stl	Stat	SF
		21	FD	23
		23-106	Rush-Yds	34-139
		313	Pass Yds	265
		27-44-2	Passes	19-29-0
		1-9	Sacks	0-0
		4-43.6	Punt	5-43.8
		2-15	PR	3-34
		7-65	Pen	4-25
		0-0	Fum	0-0
		68	Play	63
		410	Tot Yds	404
Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2007 NE	17	10	14	0		41
1998 Ari	0	0	7	7		14
		NE	Stat	Ari
		24	FD	13
		37-155	Rush-Yds	24-77
		298	Pass Yds	159
		25-29-0	Passes	15-29-2
		0-0	Sacks	2-19
		2-41.0	Punt	7-43.9
		4-83	PR	1-2
		5-33	Pen	7-48
		1-1	Fum	2-1
		66	Play	55
		453	Tot Yds	217
Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1998 Min	10	10	0	14		34
1998 Atl	6	7	7	0		20
		Min	Stat	Atl
		19	FD	15
		31-108	Rush-Yds	39-113
		255	Pass Yds	155
		15-29-1	Passes	15-27-0
		1-9	Sacks	2-15
		4-43.0	Punt	6-43.3
		3-44	PR	1-10
		6-50	Pen	5-30
		0-0	Fum	1-1
		61	Play	68
		354	Tot Yds	253
Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2000 Oak	14	14	14	3		45
2007 Hou	0	0	10	7		17
		Oak	Stat	Hou
		23	FD	10
		39-161	Rush-Yds	10-33
		277	Pass Yds	191
		19-34-0	Passes	16-31-4
		0-0	Sacks	5-46
		2-48.5	Punt	7-40.7
		4-108	PR	2-29
		7-57	Pen	5-40
		0-0	Fum	1-1
		73	Play	46
		438	Tot Yds	178
Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2005 Sea	0	7	7	10		24
1998 NYJ	3	3	7	0		13
		Sea	Stat	NYJ
		18	FD	19
		35-142	Rush-Yds	18-74
		194	Pass Yds	247
		16-27-1	Passes	19-36-3
		1-8	Sacks	1-7
		5-40.6	Punt	6-43.5
		2-11	PR	3-23
		8-66	Pen	6-48
		0-0	Fum	1-1
		63	Play	55
		328	Tot Yds	314
Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1998 Den	7	0	14	7		28
1990 Buf	7	0	0	7		14
		Den	Stat	Buf
		18	FD	17
		29-153	Rush-Yds	19-58
		172	Pass Yds	313
		15-25-1	Passes	24-45-2
		0-0	Sacks	3-17
		4-51.3	Punt	5-46.2
		3-47	PR	2-19
		6-42	Pen	5-51
		0-0	Fum	1-1
		54	Play	67
		325	Tot Yds	354
Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2002 TB	9	3	7	0		19
2006 SD	7	3	3	7		20
		TB	Stat	SD
		16	FD	19
		28-96	Rush-Yds	35-208
		211	Pass Yds	169
		18-32-2	Passes	14-26-1
		2-15	Sacks	1-7
		7-42.7	Punt	5-43.0
		2-3	PR	5-45
		7-52	Pen	5-38
		1-1	Fum	2-0
		62	Play	62
		292	Tot Yds	370
Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1985 Chi	10	0	3	8		21
1996 GB	0	3	7	14		24
		Chi	Stat	GB
		15	FD	19
		33-141	Rush-Yds	18-51
		132	Pass Yds	442
		11-19-1	Passes	26-43-2
		2-19	Sacks	1-8
		6-41.7	Punt	2-44.0
		1-7	PR	4-53
		9-88	Pen	5-43
		2-0	Fum	3-2
		54	Play	62
		254	Tot Yds	485

 

Standings after 15 games:

Pro Football Computer Simulation League
National Football Conference
East Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
1991 Washington Redskins	9	6	0	303	232	102.5
1992 Dallas Cowboys	9	6	0	307	304	99.4
1986 New York Giants	8	7	0	249	211	101.0
2004 Philadelphia Eagles	5	10	0	256	284	97.0
North Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
1996 Green Bay Packers	11	4	0	447	245	115.2
1998 Minnesota Vikings	11	4	0	435	297	111.7
1985 Chicago Bears	11	4	0	317	218	108.9
1991 Detroit Lions	3	12	0	263	406	94.9
South Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8	7	0	287	263	102.2
1998 Atlanta Falcons	8	7	0	287	363	96.9
1987 New Orleans Saints	6	9	0	293	299	101.2
1996 Carolina Panthers	6	9	0	300	361	96.8
West Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
1999 St. Louis Rams	11	4	0	454	346	105.4
1984 San Francisco 49ers	9	6	0	394	306	103.7
2005 Seattle Seahawks	6	9	0	284	395	93.1
1998 Arizona Cardinals	2	13	0	205	448	84.8
American Football Conference
East Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
2007 New England Patriots	10	5	0	492	343	108.0
1990 Buffalo Bills	7	8	0	398	359	101.1
1984 Miami Dolphins	7	8	0	439	477	96.7
1998 New York Jets	7	8	0	309	371	96.3
North Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
2000 Baltimore Ravens	12	3	0	210	196	98.7
1981 Cincinnati Bengals	8	7	0	297	289	97.9
1987 Cleveland Browns	4	11	0	243	359	91.8
2005 Pittsburgh Steelers	2	13	0	210	299	93.5
South Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
2000 Tennessee Titans	13	2	0	346	162	111.2
2005 Indianapolis Colts	8	7	0	377	366	102.3
1999 Jacksonville Jaguars	5	10	0	272	339	97.6
2007 Houston Texans	4	11	0	301	443	92.3
West Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
1998 Denver Broncos	11	4	0	444	307	107.2
2006 San Diego Chargers	10	5	0	363	311	102.6
2000 Oakland Raiders	6	9	0	328	357	97.5
2003 Kansas City Chiefs	3	12	0	327	492	90.4

Pro Football Computer Simulation For Week 15: December 15, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation Week 15-December 15, 2008

 

The simulation for Week 15 has just been completed, and there were a couple of interesting games of note.  The rematch of Super Bowl 19 took place in Miami where the 1984 Dolphins knocked the 1984 49ers out of playoff contention, giving the 1999 Rams the NFC West title.  With the win, the Dolphins moved to within just one game of the playoff bubble, as four teams are tied at 7-7 in the AFC and 7-7 is the second best record of potential AFC Wildcard teams.

 

The big upset took place in Oakland.  The 2000 Raiders beat the 2007 Patriots.

 

Here are the results from this week’s simulation:

 

1985 Chicago			24	1987 New Orleans				13
Team	1	2			3	4	OT			F
1985 Chi	7	10			0	7				24
1987 NO	3	7			0	3				13
		Chi			Stat	NO
		18			FD	12
		43-177			Rush-Yds	25-57
		154			Pass Yds	169
		13-24-0			Passes	14-27-2
		1-6			Sacks	3-20
		6-44.0			Punt	7-42.4
		3-56			PR	2-11
		7-55			Pen	5-49
		0-0			Fum	1-0
		68			Play	55
		325			Tot Yds	206

The Bears scored 10 points off the two interceptions thrown by Bobby Hebert, and Walter Payton rushed for 129 yards and a score.

 

1981 Cincinnati			30	1991 Washington				17
Team	1	2			3	4	OT			F
1981 Cin	10	14			3	3				30
1991 Was	7	3			7	0				17
		Cin			Stat	Was
		23			FD	16
		41-197			Rush-Yds	19-84
		231			Pass Yds	208
		18-29-0			Passes	17-30-2
		0-0			Sacks	3-19
		4-39.8			Punt	6-40.3
		2-5			PR	1-7
		3-15			Pen	8-80
		2-1			Fum	1-1
		70			Play	52
		428			Tot Yds	273

Ken Anderson threw three touchdown passes in the first half and Pete Johnson rushed for 132 yards as the Bengals moved into playoff contention.  With the loss, the Redskins fell from first place in the NFC East.

 

1998 Atlanta			27	2002 Tampa Bay				17
Team	1	2			3	4	OT			F
1998 Atl	0	6			14	7				27
2002 TB	10	0			7	0				17
		Atl			Stat	TB
		19			FD	17
		34-168			Rush-Yds	34-121
		182			Pass Yds	224
		15-25-0			Passes	19-29-1
		0-0			Sacks	1-7
		6-42.5			Punt	7-41.9
		4-58			PR	2-19
		4-30			Pen	6-55
		2-0			Fum	1-1
		59			Play	64
		350			Tot Yds	338

Jamal Anderson’s two third quarter touchdown runs (17 & 11 yards) brought the Falcons back after Tampa Bay had taken a 17-6 lead.  The two teams are now tied for the lead in the NFC South, with Tampa Bay holding a slim tiebreaker advantage.

 

2000 Tennessee			23	2007 Houston				14
Team	1	2			3	4	OT			F
2007 Hou	0	7			7	0				14
2000 Ten	3	6			7	7				23
		Hou			Stat	Ten
		14			FD	19
		28-77			Rush-Yds	40-208
		184			Pass Yds	139
		16-28-1			Passes	11-19-0
		4-23			Sacks	0-0
		7-42.3			Punt	5-48.2
		2-27			PR	3-44
		8-77			Pen	5-40
		3-1			Fum	1-0
		60			Play	59
		238			Tot Yds	347

Eddie George rushed for 177 yards and two touchdowns and Jevon Kearse recorded two sacks, as the Titans moved closer to securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

 

2005 Indianapolis			38	1991 Detroit				17
Team	1	2			3	4	OT			F
2005 Ind	14	14			3	7				38
1991 Det	0	3			7	7				17
		Ind			Stat	Det
		24			FD	16
		41-177			Rush-Yds	21-109
		285			Pass Yds	173
		19-32-0			Passes	14-27-2
		0-0			Sacks	3-20
		2-42.5			Punt	6-41.7
		3-23			PR	1-4
		6-50			Pen	4-30
		0-0			Fum	2-1
		73			Play	51
		462			Tot Yds	262

Peyton Manning passed for 3 touchdowns and Edgerrin James rushed for 152 yards and a score, as the Colts moved onto the top side of the Wildcard playoff bubble.

 

2006 San Diego			28	2003 Kansas City				24
Team	1	2			3	4	OT			F
2003 KC	3	7			14	0				24
2006 SD	7	7			7	7				28
		KC			Stat	SD
		20			FD	18
		16-71			Rush-Yds	41-189
		256			Pass Yds	142
		22-38-1			Passes	12-20-0
		1-8			Sacks	0-0
		5-43.6			Punt	6-41.8
		3-19			PR	4-46
		5-40			Pen	7-57
		2-1			Fum	3-1
		55			Play	61
		319			Tot Yds	331

Phillip Rivers passed for two touchdowns and LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 144 yards and a touchdown, as the Chargers virtually locked up a playoff spot.

 

2000 Baltimore			10	2005 Pittsburgh				6
Team	1	2			3	4	OT			F
2000 Bal	0	3			0	7				10
2005 Pit	3	0			3	0				6
		Bal			Stat	Pit
		14			FD	12
		33-114			Rush-Yds	31-89
		129			Pass Yds	158
		11-24-2			Passes	16-28-2
		2-11			Sacks	3-18
		6-42.0			Punt	8-40.8
		3-41			PR	2-16
		11-110			Pen	6-52
		2-1			Fum	1-0
		59			Play	62
		232			Tot Yds	229

Ray Lewis intercepted a Ben Roethlisberger pass and returned it 47 yards for the winning score in the fourth quarter as the Ravens moved closer to gaining a first round bye in the playoffs.

 

1996 Green Bay			34	1999 Jacksonville				13
Team	1	2			3	4	OT			F
1999 Jac	0	3			3	7				13
1996 GB	10	14			7	3				34
		Jac			Stat	GB
		13			FD	24
		19-44			Rush-Yds	45-185
		142			Pass Yds	228
		13-26-1			Passes	19-29-0
		1-11			Sacks	0-0
		8-40.3			Punt	4-44.3
		1-11			PR	6-82
		5-39			Pen	4-30
		0-0			Fum	1-0
		46			Play	74
		175			Tot Yds	413

The Packers held onto the ball for 38:16 to just 21:44 for the Jaguars, as Brett Favre led the green and gold on four touchdown drives of 10 or more plays.  Jacksonville’s lone touchdown came with just 10 seconds to play in the game.  The loss eliminated the Jaguars from the playoffs.

 

1996 Carolina			28	1998 Denver				27
Team	1	2			3	4	OT			F
1996 Car	0	14			7	7				28
1998 Den	7	3			7	10				27
		Car			Stat	Den
		19			FD	20
		28-107			Rush-Yds	35-147
		242			Pass Yds	204
		19-34-1			Passes	17-28-1
		2-10			Sacks	1-8
		5-43.0			Punt	5-42.4
		2-17			PR	3-22
		5-33			Pen	6-35
		0-0			Fum	1-1
		64			Play	64
		339			Tot Yds	343

Anthony Johnson broke loose on a draw play and scored on a 42-yard run to give the Panthers the upset victory after John Elway had put the Broncos ahead on a 4^th quarter drive.  The Panthers held onto their slim playoff hopes, while Denver fell one game behind Baltimore for a playoff bye.

 

1998 NY Jets			31	1990 Buffalo				28	ot
Team	1	2			3	4	OT			F
1998 NYJ	0	14			14	0	3			31
1990 Buf	7	0			7	14	0			28
		NYJ			Stat	Buf
		18			FD	21
		33-109			Rush-Yds	34-117
		221			Pass Yds	233
		19-33-2			Passes	19-34-1
		3-16			Sacks	5-43
		7-41.7			Punt	5-42.4
		2-9			PR	3-41
		8-65			Pen	4-53
		2-1			Fum	1-0
		69			Play	73
		314			Tot Yds	307

Aaron Glenn intercepted a Jim Kelly pass and returned it 17 yards to set up John Hall’s 47 yard field goal with 3:11 to go in overtime, as the Jets moved into a second place tie with the Bills in the AFC East.

 

1984 Miami			42	1984 San Francisco				31
Team	1	2			3	4	OT			F
1984 Mia	14	7			14	7				42
1984 SF	10	7			7	7				31
		Mia			Stat	SF
		25			FD	22
		19-74			Rush-Yds	35-148
		403			Pass Yds	277
		28-44-0			Passes	21-34-1
		1-6			Sacks	1-6
		2-53.5			Punt	5-41.6
		3-14			PR	2-21
		4-25			Pen	6-48
		0-0			Fum	1-0
		64			Play	70
		471			Tot Yds	419

Dan Marino threw four touchdown passes, two each to Mark Duper and Mark Clayton, as the Dolphins eliminated the 49ers from the playoff race and held onto slim hopes of obtaining a wildcard spot themselves.

 

1999 St. Louis			45	2005 Seattle				17
Team	1	2			3	4	OT			F
1999 Stl	21	3			14	7				45
2005 Sea	0	7			10	0				17
		Stl			Stat	Sea
		26			FD	18
		37-177			Rush-Yds	17-55
		345			Pass Yds	228
		23-36-0			Passes	16-29-2
		0-0			Sacks	2-19
		1-42			Punt	6-43.5
		3-52			PR	1-7
		6-44			Pen	5-59
		2-1			Fum	1-0
		73			Play	48
		522			Tot Yds	264

Kurt Warner completed touchdown passes to Isaac Bruce, Marshall Faulk, and Az Hakim in the first quarter, as the Rams cruised to the easy win.  Combined with the 49ers loss, St. Louis clinched the NFC West.

 

1998 Minnesota			35	1998 Arizona				10
Team	1	2			3	4	OT			F
1998 Ari	3	7			0	0				10
1998 Min	7	7			14	7				35
		Ari			Stat	Min
		14			FD	20
		23-67			Rush-Yds	42-163
		195			Pass Yds	285
		13-27-1			Passes	15-26-0
		4-23			Sacks	0-0
		7-40.4			Punt	4-39.8
		0-0			PR	2-21
		6-55			Pen	4-34
		1-0			Fum	1-1
		54			Play	68
		239			Tot Yds	448

Randall Cunningham completed long bombs to Randy Moss (46 yards) and Cris Carter (41 yards) in the third quarter to put a close game out of reach.  Jimmy Hitchcock put the game out of reach with a 44 yard interception return for a touchdown in the final period.

 

2000 Oakland			34	2007 New England				28
Team	1	2			3	4	OT			F
2000 Oak	9	0			18	7				34
2007 NE	14	7			0	7				28
		Oak			Stat	NE
		13			FD	24
		31-98			Rush-Yds	29-121
		159			Pass Yds	312
		14-25-0			Passes	23-39-2
		0-0			Sacks	1-9
		7-46.6			Punt	2-41.0
		1-68			PR	4-35
		10-100			Pen	6-46
		0-0			Fum	4-3
		56			Play	69
		257			Tot Yds	424

The Raiders took advantage of five New England turnovers and converted them into two touchdowns and three field goals, and the silver and black forced two safeties as well.  New England still led 28-27 after Tom Brady scrambled for a 5 yard touchdown run with 4:08 left to play, but David Dunn returned the following kickoff 67 yards to the Patriots’ 24 yard line.  Rich Gannon completed back-to-back passes to Tim Brown to move the ball to the four, and Tyrone Wheatley scored on the next play.

 

1992 Dallas			20	1986 NY Giants				17
Team	1	2			3	4	OT			F
1992 Dal	3	3			7	7				20
1986 NYG	7	0			7	3				17
		Dal			Stat	NYG
		18			FD	16
		34-141			Rush-Yds	33-108
		165			Pass Yds	172
		14-23-0			Passes	12-24-1
		1-7			Sacks	1-5
		6-44.5			Punt	6-37.5
		2-13			PR	3-24
		4-30			Pen	5-27
		2-1			Fum	2-1
		58			Play	58
		299			Tot Yds	275

 Emmitt Smith broke loose on a 26 yard touchdown run with 3:11 to go in the game, and the Cowboys’ defense held the Giants on downs at midfield to move into first place in the NFC East.

 

2004 Philadelphia			31	1987 Cleveland				21
Team	1	2			3	4	OT			F
2004 Phi	13	0			11	7				31
1987 Cle	14	0			7	0				21
		Phi			Stat	Cle
		17			FD	18
		45-190			Rush-Yds	34-122
		162			Pass Yds	197
		15-24-0			Passes	17-27-1
		0-0			Sacks	2-15
		5-41.8			Punt	7-41.3
		3-17			PR	2-23
		6-41			Pen	5-40
		0-0			Fum	1-1
		69			Play	63
		352			Tot Yds	304

Three different Eagles rushed for more than 50 yards and a touchdown each, as Philadelphia won for just the fifth time this season.  Brian Westbrook rushed for 72 yards on 17 carries, Dorsey Levens rushed for 67 yards on 19 carries, and Donovan McNabb scrambled for 51 yards on nine attempts.

 

Current Standings

Pro Football Computer Simulation League
National Football Conference
East Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
1992 Dallas Cowboys	9	5	0	290	284	99.7
1991 Washington Redskins	8	6	0	276	215	102.0
1986 New York Giants	7	7	0	228	195	100.9
2004 Philadelphia Eagles	5	9	0	239	257	97.6
North Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
1985 Chicago Bears	11	3	0	296	194	109.9
1996 Green Bay Packers	10	4	0	423	224	116.2
1998 Minnesota Vikings	10	4	0	401	277	111.7
1991 Detroit Lions	2	12	0	233	385	94.0
South Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8	6	0	268	243	102.4
1998 Atlanta Falcons	8	6	0	267	329	97.6
1987 New Orleans Saints	6	8	0	272	269	101.8
1996 Carolina Panthers	6	8	0	284	340	97.0
West Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
1999 St. Louis Rams	11	3	0	427	315	106.2
1984 San Francisco 49ers	8	6	0	363	279	103.8
2005 Seattle Seahawks	5	9	0	260	382	91.9
1998 Arizona Cardinals	2	12	0	191	407	85.4
American Football Conference
East Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
2007 New England Patriots	9	5	0	451	329	106.6
1990 Buffalo Bills	7	7	0	384	331	101.9
1998 New York Jets	7	7	0	296	347	96.3
1984 Miami Dolphins	6	8	0	404	453	95.5
North Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
2000 Baltimore Ravens	11	3	0	190	179	98.5
1981 Cincinnati Bengals	7	7	0	273	273	97.5
1987 Cleveland Browns	4	10	0	227	335	91.9
2005 Pittsburgh Steelers	2	12	0	197	278	93.6
South Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
2000 Tennessee Titans	12	2	0	325	149	111.7
2005 Indianapolis Colts	7	7	0	346	346	101.8
1999 Jacksonville Jaguars	5	9	0	252	308	98.2
2007 Houston Texans	4	10	0	284	398	93.6
West Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
1998 Denver Broncos	10	4	0	416	293	106.6
2006 San Diego Chargers	9	5	0	343	292	102.3
2000 Oakland Raiders	5	9	0	287	340	95.6
2003 Kansas City Chiefs	3	11	0	303	457	90.1

 

Pro Football Computer Simulation League: Week 14–December 8, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation League: Week 14-12-08-08

 

As year two of the Pro Football Computer Simulation League begins to reach its conclusion, it is apparent that there are more quality teams in the NFC than the AFC.  If the simulated playoffs were to begin today, the 1984 San Francisco 49ers and 1992 Dallas Cowboys would be out with 8-5 records, while in the AFC, 7-6 would be good enough for the 1990 Buffalo Bills to qualify as a wildcard team.

 

Here is a look at results for this weekend.  The weather played an important part in many games, causing more turnovers and less offense on the average.

 

2006 San Diego

28

2000 Oakland

17

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2006 SD	14	0	7	7		28
2000 Oak	3	7	7	0		17
		SD	Stat	Oak
		18	FD	17
		42-176	Rush-Yds	17-56
		180	Pass Yds	211
		17-26-0	Passes	19-33-2
		1-6	Sacks	1-7
		5-43.2	Punt	6-45.2
		2-31	PR	3-31
		5-35	Pen	7-50
		2-1	Fum	1-0
		69	Play	51
		350	Tot Yds	260

 

SD-LaDainian Tomlinson rush: 26-127

 

1998 Atlanta

17

1987 New Orleans

14

 

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1987 NO	0	7	7	0		14
1998 Atl	7	3	7	0		17
		NO	Stat	Atl
		14	FD	17
		24-79	Rush-Yds	41-193
		227	Pass Yds	142
		19-32-1	Passes	11-19-0
		3-22	Sacks	1-5
		8-43.4	Punt	6-44.7
		2-22	PR	4-46
		6-43	Pen	5-42
		1-1	Fum	1-1
		59	Play	61
		284	Tot Yds	330

 

Atl-Jamal Anderson rush: 26-159 & 1 TD

 

2000 Baltimore

16

1991 Washington

13

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2000 Bal	0	7	6	3		16
1991 Was	0	6	0	7		13
		Bal	Stat	Was
		14	FD	14
		36-129	Rush-Yds	24-81
		131	Pass Yds	152
		11-24-1	Passes	15-29-1
		2-11	Sacks	3-17
		7-41.6	Punt	6-42.0
		4-33	PR	3-41
		6-42	Pen	4-31
		0-0	Fum	2-1
		62	Play	56
		249	Tot Yds	216

 

Ravens Defense held Redskins to 2 FDs and 74 yards in 2^nd half

 

1986 NY Giants

20

2004 Philadelphia

14

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1986 NYG	10	0	10	0		20
2004 Phi	7	0	7	0		14
		NYG	Stat	Phi
		16	FD	15
		35-133	Rush-Yds	30-93
		215	Pass Yds	183
		15-25-1	Passes	17-32-2
		0-0	Sacks	2-15
		5-41.6	Punt	6-42.7
		3-19	PR	2-31
		4-20	Pen	3-25
		2-1	Fum	1-1
		60	Play	64
		348	Tot Yds	261

 

NYG: Terry Kinard intercepted two passes and returned one 36 yards to set up TD

 

 

1985 Chicago

24

1999 Jacksonville

10

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1985 Chi	3	14	7	0		24
1999 Jac	0	0	10	0		10
		Chi	Stat	Jac
		16	FD	11
		44-182	Rush-Yds	18-44
		143	Pass Yds	137
		12-22-0	Passes	12-27-2
		0-0	Sacks	4-31
		5-44.6	Punt	8-43.5
		4-71	PR	2-19
		5-40	Pen	4-28
		1-0	Fum	0-0
		66	Play	49
		325	Tot Yds	150

 

Chi: Leslie Frazier returned a 3^rd qtr. Interception for a TD to put game away

 

1998 Minnesota

37

1991 Detroit

20

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1991 Det	10	7	3	0		20
1998 Min	9	7	7	14		37
		Det	Stat	Min
		17	FD	21
		43-198	Rush-Yds	28-111
		140	Pass Yds	245
		12-23-1	Passes	18-29-1
		0-0	Sacks	1-8
		4-38.8	Punt	5-43.2
		2-15	PR	1-10
		5-43	Pen	4-35
		2-1	Fum	1-0
		66	Play	58
		338	Tot Yds	348

 

Min: Cris Carter Rec. 7-126 & 2 TD

 

1996 Green Bay

27

2007 Houston

13

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1996 GB	7	3	14	3		27
2007 Hou	0	7	3	3		13
		GB	Stat	Hou
		20	FD	15
		37-126	Rush-Yds	27-83
		207	Pass Yds	168
		17-28-1	Passes	17-31-1
		0-0	Sacks	2-15
		4-45.8	Punt	6-41.5
		3-47	PR	2-10
		5-34	Pen	5-49
		1-0	Fum	1-1
		65	Play	60
		333	Tot Yds	236

 

GB-Santana Dotson 1 QB sack & 1 Fumble Recovery

 

2005 Indianapolis

34

1981 Cincinnati

24

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2005 Ind	14	10	7	3		34
1981 Cin	7	10	0	7		24
		Ind	Stat	Cin
		20	FD	18
		34-146	Rush-Yds	29-91
		229	Pass Yds	266
		16-22-0	Passes	24-41-2
		0-0	Sacks	1-6
		3-44.3	Punt	4-42.3
		1-6	PR	1-2
		5-25	Pen	7-50
		1-0	Fum	1-0
		56	Play	71
		375	Tot Yds	351

 

Ind-Peyton Manning 4 TD passes

 

2000 Tennessee	23	1987 Cleveland	17
Team 1 2 3 4 OT F 2000 Ten 3 7 7 6   23 1987 Cle 0 7 3 7   17                   Ten Stat Cle         16 FD 13         38-146 Rush-Yds 29-70         137 Pass Yds 155         12-21-0 Passes 14-27-2         0-0 Sacks 2-15         5-43.8 Punt 7-42.3         4-56 PR 3-22         6-46 Pen 8-55         1-0 Fum 1-1         59 Play 58         283 Tot Yds 210

 

Ten-Samari Rolle 2 interceptions and 3 passes broken up

 

1998 Denver			34	2003 Kansas City				14
Team	1	2			3	4	OT			F
1998 Den	14	10			10	0				34
2003 KC	0	0			7	7				14
		Den			Stat	KC
		23			FD	9
		49-221			Rush-Yds	11-36
		192			Pass Yds	183
		16-25-0			Passes	15-32-2
		0-0			Sacks	2-17
		4-42.0			Punt	9-41.3
		5-42			PR	2-17
		3-25			Pen	5-30
		2-1			Fum	1-0
		74			Play	45
		413			Tot Yds	202

 

Den-Terrell Davis rush: 32-169 & 2 TD

 

1984 Miami

40

1990 Buffalo

31

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1990 Buf	7	10	0	14		31
1984 Mia	14	17	9	0		40
		Buf	Stat	Mia
		22	FD	21
		26-87	Rush-Yds	27-110
		311	Pass Yds	284
		24-49-2	Passes	19-35-1
		1-7	Sacks	2-13
		4-31.2	Punt	4-46.3
		1-17	PR	2-3
		7-58	Pen	4-20
		0-0	Fum	0-0
		76	Play	64
		391	Tot Yds	381

 

Miami scored touchdowns on first four possessions as Dan Marino hooked up with Mark Clayton and Mark Duper twice each for TDs/Dolphins also blocked a punt for a safety

 

1984 San Francisco

26

1998 NY Jets

17

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1984 SF	10	7	3	6		26
1998 NYJ	7	0	3	7		17
		SF	Stat	NYJ
		19	FD
		32-119	Rush-Yds	25-107
		209	Pass Yds	203
		18-32-0	Passes	18-32-2
		1-5	Sacks	0-0
		4-43.0	Punt	6-42.3
		2-19	PR	0-0
		5-32	Pen	9-90
		0-0	Fum	1-1
		65	Play	57
		323	Tot Yds	310

 

SF-Keena Turner and Dana McLemore picked off a pass to set up two 2^nd half field goals

 

1992 Dallas

23

2005 Pittsburgh

13

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2005 Pit	3	10	0	0		13
1992 Dal	3	3	14	3		23
		Pit	Stat	Dal
		18	FD	18
		16-71	Rush-Yds	45-203
		211	Pass Yds	173
		19-34-2	Passes	15-25-0
		2-13	Sacks	1-9
		6-41.8	Punt	5-42.0
		2-13	PR	4-19
		4-30	Pen	3-22
		2-1	Fum	1-1
		52	Play	71
		269	Tot Yds	367

 

Dal-Emmitt Smith rush: 28-149

 

1999 St. Louis

44

1998 Arizona

17

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1998 Ari	0	0	10	7		17
1999 Stl	24	6	7	7		44
		Ari	Stat	Stl
		7	FD	26
		13-21	Rush-Yds	54-247
		121	Pass Yds	248
		11-28-3	Passes	17-19-0
		3-22	Sacks	0-0
		7-40.7	Punt	1-43
		1-36	PR	3-31
		4-25	Pen	6-35
		0-0	Fum	0-0
		44	Play	73
		120	Tot Yds	495

 

Stl-Kurt Warner threw three TD passes in 1^st qtr./Marshall Faulk ran for 133 yards in the second half to finish with 187 total.

 

2007 New England

30

2005 Seattle

20

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2005 Sea	3	7	0	10		20
2007 NE	14	3	10	3		30
		Sea	Stat	NE
		17	FD	19
		30-89	Rush-Yds	31-119
		191	Pass Yds	267
		17-31-1	Passes	21-35-0
		2-13	Sacks	0-0
		5-43.6	Punt	4-42.5
		1-0	PR	2-13
		5-32	Pen	4-30
		1-1	Fum	1-0
		63	Play	66
		267	Tot Yds	386

 

NE-Wesley Welker Rec.: 10-144 & 2 TD

 

2002 Tampa Bay

21

1996 Carolina

17

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1996 Car	0	7	10	0		17
2002 TB	7	7	7	0		21
		Car	Stat	TB
		19	FD	12
		31-137	Rush-Yds	34-83
		219	Pass Yds	137
		17-37-3	Passes	13-24-0
		5-27	Sacks	1-6
		5-34.0	Punt	8-46.4
		2-11	PR	3-59
		5-35	Pen	5-40
		2-2	Fum	1-0
		73	Play	59
		329	Tot Yds	220

 

Tampa Bay forced 5 turnovers and blocked a punt, scoring all 21 points off Panther miscues

 

Pro Football Computer Simulation League
National Football Conference
East Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
1991 Washington Redskins	8	5	0	259	185	103.5
1992 Dallas Cowboys	8	5	0	270	267	99.9
1986 New York Giants	7	6	0	211	175	101.5
2004 Philadelphia Eagles	4	9	0	208	236	97.1
North Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
1985 Chicago Bears	10	3	0	272	181	109.2
1996 Green Bay Packers	9	4	0	389	211	115.3
1998 Minnesota Vikings	9	4	0	366	267	110.3
1991 Detroit Lions	2	11	0	216	347	94.4
South Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8	5	0	251	216	103.2
1998 Atlanta Falcons	7	6	0	240	312	96.3
1987 New Orleans Saints	6	7	0	259	245	102.6
1996 Carolina Panthers	5	8	0	256	313	96.5
West Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
1999 St. Louis Rams	10	3	0	382	298	105.3
1984 San Francisco 49ers	8	5	0	332	237	105.6
2005 Seattle Seahawks	5	8	0	243	337	93.9
1998 Arizona Cardinals	2	11	0	181	372	86.6
American Football Conference
East Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
2007 New England Patriots	9	4	0	423	295	107.8
1990 Buffalo Bills	7	6	0	356	300	102.7
1998 New York Jets	6	7	0	265	319	96.1
1984 Miami Dolphins	5	8	0	362	422	94.8
North Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
2000 Baltimore Ravens	10	3	0	180	173	98.0
1981 Cincinnati Bengals	6	7	0	243	256	96.4
1987 Cleveland Browns	4	9	0	206	304	92.0
2005 Pittsburgh Steelers	2	11	0	191	268	93.4
South Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
2000 Tennessee Titans	11	2	0	302	135	111.6
2005 Indianapolis Colts	6	7	0	308	329	100.0
1999 Jacksonville Jaguars	5	8	0	239	274	99.1
2007 Houston Texans	4	9	0	270	375	93.2
West Division	Won	Lost	Tie	Pts	Opp	PiRate
1998 Denver Broncos	10	3	0	389	265	107.3
2006 San Diego Chargers	8	5	0	315	268	102.2
2000 Oakland Raiders	4	9	0	253	312	94.8
2003 Kansas City Chiefs	3	10	0	279	429	89.5

Pro Football Computer Simulation: Week 13–December 1, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation League: Week 13-December 1, 2008

 

The Pro Football Computer Simulation League for 2008 uses a fantastic season from the past between 1981 and 2007 for each of the 32 current NFL Franchises.  It uses the actual 2008 NFL schedule and then simulates games between the past great teams.  Last year’s simulation involved teams from 1960 to 1979.  The 1967 Oakland Raiders edged the 1968 Dallas Cowboys in the Simper Bowl.

 

Here are the results of this week’s games:

 

2000 Tennessee Titans  24  1991 Detroit Lions  6

Jevon Kearse picked up two sacks and Frank Wycheck caught 5 passes for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns, as the Titans spoiled Thanksgiving for Detroit fans. 

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1991 Det	0	3	3	0		6
2000 Ten	0	10	7	7		24
		Det	Stat	Ten
		11	FD	17
		28-92	Rush-Yds	38-147
		144	Pass Yds	168
		13-23-1	Passes	15-25-0
		3-19	Sacks	0-0
		7-47.3	Punt	5-43.6
		2-11	PR	4-67
		6-64	Pen	4-25
		2-1	Fum	1-1
		54	Play	63
		217	Tot Yds	315

 

1992 Dallas Cowboys  27  2005 Seattle Seahawks  20

Emmitt Smith rushed for 136 yards on 22 carries and scored the game-clinching touchdown, and the Cowboys’ defense stopped Seattle on downs late in the game at the Dallas 28 yard line.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1992 Dal	7	10	10	0		27
2005 Sea	7	3	3	7		20
		Dal	Stat	Sea
		19	FD	15
		41-196	Rush-Yds	31-87
		174	Pass Yds	193
		15-25-0	Passes	16-28-2
		1-6	Sacks	1-7
		4-41.0	Punt	5-41.8
		2-29	PR	2-17
		6-45	Pen	8-87
		2-0	Fum	2-1
		67	Play	60
		364	Tot Yds	273

 

2004 Philadelphia Eagles  27  1998 Arizona Cardinals  7

Terrell Owens caught 5 passes for 114 yards and a touchdown, and the Eagles’ defense forced three turnovers, as Philadelphia cruised to an easy win.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2004 Phi	14	7	3	3		27
1998 Ari	0	0	0	7		7
		Phi	Stat	Ari
		20	FD	14
		38-114	Rush-Yds	21-55
		266	Pass Yds	168
		19-32-0	Passes	17-36-2
		1-8	Sacks	3-21
		4-43.3	Punt	6-34.3
		2-14	PR	1-7
		3-20	Pen	5-45
		0-0	Fum	2-1
		71	Play	60
		372	Tot Yds	202

 

 

1998 New York Jets  25  1998 Denver Broncos  24

Vinny Testaverde threw touchdown passes of 19 and 23 yards to Keyshawn Johnson and Bryan Cox sacked John Elway for a safety as the Jets upset the Broncos at the Meadowlands.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1998 NYJ	9	6	10	0		25
1998 Den	3	7	14	0		24
		NYJ	Stat	Den
		16	FD	17
		42-163	Rush-Yds	25-103
		152	Pass Yds	214
		14-24-0	Passes	17-31-1
		0-0	Sacks	1-9
		5-44.4	Punt	5-40.4
		2-9	PR	1-12
		5-39	Pen	6-55
		2-1	Fum	1-0
		66	Play	57
		315	Tot Yds	308

 

1984 Miami Dolphins  45  1999 St. Louis Rams  42 OT

Dan Marino threw 5 touchdown passes including a 42-yard bomb to Mark Clayton in the final minutes of regulation to force overtime.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1999 Stl	7	14	14	7	0	42
1984 Mia	7	7	14	14	3	45
		Stl	Stat	Mia
		26	FD	27
		31-127	Rush-Yds	29-88
		365	Pass Yds	401
		24-39-1	Passes	29-52-1
		1-7	Sacks	1-5
		3-41.3	Punt	3-47.7
		1-11	PR	1-(-1)
		4-42	Pen	6-40
		0-0	Fum	1-0
		71	Play	82
		485	Tot Yds	484

 

 

1991 Washington Redskins  17  1986 New York Giants  13

Earnest Byner’s 4-yard TD run with 2:11 to play in the game provided the Redskins with the winning points in a game played with first place on the line in the NFC East.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1991 Was	3	7	0	7		17
1986 NYG	3	3	7	0		13
		Was	Stat	NYG
		16	FD	15
		39-143	Rush-Yds	28-77
		158	Pass Yds	224
		14-23-1	Passes	14-26-1
		2-11	Sacks	1-8
		6-40.3	Punt	8-42.0
		5-41	PR	3-23
		4-25	Pen	4-30
		2-1	Fum	3-1
		64	Play	55
		290	Tot Yds	293

 

 

1987 New Orleans Saints  19  2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers  16

Mel Gray returned a fourth quarter punt 42 yards to set up the Saints at the Tampa Bay 31 yard line.  Six plays later Bobby Hebert used a QB sneak to score from inside the 1 yard line with 0:13 to play.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2002 TB	3	7	3	3		16
1987 NO	7	5	0	7		19
		TB	Stat	NO
		16	FD	16
		38-149	Rush-Yds	26-96
		157	Pass Yds	222
		13-21-0	Passes	17-29-2
		0-0	Sacks	2-12
		9-42.6	Punt	7-40.3
		4-35	PR	5-102
		5-50	Pen	4-31
		0-0	Fum	1-0
		59	Play	57
		306	Tot Yds	306

 

 

2005 Indianapolis Colts  41  1987 Cleveland Browns  17

Edgerrin James rushed for 119 yards and caught 3 passes for 35 yards and a score, and Marvin Harrison hauled in 7 passes for 113 yards and 3 touchdowns.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1987 Cle	7	0	10	0		17
2005 Ind	14	13	14	0		41
		Cle	Stat	Ind
		12	FD	23
		18-55	Rush-Yds	39-181
		174	Pass Yds	285
		13-28-3	Passes	19-32-0
		1-7	Sacks	1-6
		8-42.1	Punt	4-43.8
		3-45	PR	4-35
		5-35	Pen	4-30
		1-1	Fum	3-1
		47	Play	72
		222	Tot Yds	460

 

 

1990 Buffalo Bills  30  1984 San Francisco 49ers  24

Thurman Thomas rushed 29 times for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The Bills’ defense forced Joe Montana into 2 interceptions and a fumble on a QB sack.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1990 Buf	14	10	3	3		30
1984 SF	7	7	3	7		24
		Buf	Stat	SF
		22	FD	21
		34-216	Rush-Yds	30-122
		247	Pass Yds	211
		19-31-1	Passes	19-34-2
		0-0	Sacks	2-13
		3-46.3	Punt	5-42.4
		2-19	PR	1-11
		4-25	Pen	7-50
		1-1	Fum	2-1
		65	Play	66
		463	Tot Yds	320

 

 

1981 Cincinnati Bengals  13  2000 Baltimore Ravens  10

Pete Johnson’s 2 yard touchdown run in the 3^rd quarter was set up by Ross Browner’s 33 yard fumble return.  The Bengals’ defense stopped the Baltimore running game.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1981 Cin	3	3	7	0		13
2000 Bal	7	0	3	0		10
		Cin	Stat	Bal
		18	FD	13
		37-136	Rush-Yds	25-85
		153	Pass Yds	142
		12-25-1	Passes	13-28-0
		2-19	Sacks	2-15
		9-40.2	Punt	8-36.9
		1-5	PR	4-51
		4-20	Pen	11-102
		1-0	Fum	2-1
		64	Play	55
		270	Tot Yds	212

 

 

1996 Green Bay Packers  34  1996 Carolina Panthers  13

Brett Favre completed a 74 yard TD pass to Don Beebe and a 58 yard TD pass to Antonio Freeman, as the Packers won a rematch of the 1996 NFC Championship Game.  Green Bay won that real game 30-13.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1996 GB	10	10	7	7		34
1996 Car	0	3	3	7		13
		GB	Stat	Car
		19	FD	14
		41-156	Rush-Yds	17-45
		269	Pass Yds	220
		14-25-0	Passes	19-34-3
		0-0	Sacks	1-8
		6-45.5	Punt	7-41.4
		4-53	PR	2-17
		5-33	Pen	4-35
		0-0	Fum	1-0
		66	Play	52
		425	Tot Yds	257

1998 Atlanta Falcons  21  2006 San Diego Chargers  20

Jamal Anderson rushed for 148 yards and 3 touchdowns to give the Falcons all the points they needed.  Atlanta stays in contention in the NFC South, while San Diego falls two games back in the AFC West.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2006 SD	0	6	0	14		20
1998 Atl	7	7	7	0		21
		SD	Stat	Atl
		16	FD	17
		31-116	Rush-Yds	42-192
		183	Pass Yds	139
		16-29-1	Passes	11-19-0
		2-13	Sacks	1-7
		6-43.2	Punt	6-42.0
		3-25	PR	2-24
		5-35	Pen	5-35
		1-0	Fum	2-0
		62	Play	62
		286	Tot Yds	324

 

2007 New England Patriots  38  2005 Pittsburgh Steelers  16

Randy Moss grabbed 5 passes for 141 yards and 2 TDs.  He took one quick screen at the line of scrimmage and ran 58 yards after the catch.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2007 NE	17	7	7	7		38
2005 Pit	3	0	6	7		16
		NE	Stat	Pit
		18	FD	19
		25-103	Rush-Yds	35-147
		296	Pass Yds	179
		21-33-0	Passes	14-27-2
		0-0	Sacks	3-23
		3-47.0	Punt	6-41.8
		3-43	PR	0-0
		5-40	Pen	6-48
		1-0	Fum	1-1
		58	Play	65
		399	Tot Yds	303

 

2003 Kansas City Chiefs  27  2000 Oakland Raiders  21

Trent Green rushed for 1 TD and passed for 2 others as the Chiefs won for just the third time this season.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
2000 Oak	7	14	0	0		21
2003 KC	3	10	0	14		27
		Oak	Stat	KC
		15	FD	21
		22-90	Rush-Yds	28-95
		177	Pass Yds	343
		15-26-1	Passes	26-45-1
		1-7	Sacks	1-6
		6-45.8	Punt	4-40.8
		2-67	PR	3-44
		8-80	Pen	4-36
		1-0	Fum	2-1
		49	Play	74
		260	Tot Yds	432

 

 

1998 Minnesota Vikings  21  1985 Chicago Bears  17

The 1998 Vikings proved they belong in the playoff chase as they moved in to a tie for second just one game behind Green Bay in the black and blue division.  Chicago had the ball at the Minnesota 6 yard line on 2^nd & 1 late in the game.  The Bears were unable to score and turned the ball over on downs at the Viking 2 yard line.  Jimmy Hitchcock’s 56 yard interception return on the first play of the 4^th quarter proved to be the winning score.

 

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	F
1998 Min	0	7