The Pi-Rate Ratings

February 21, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 21, 2020

Date

2/21/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

Kansas

San Diego St.

2

Duke

Dayton

Maryland

Florida St.

3

Seton Hall

Creighton

Louisville

Villanova

4

Penn St.

West Virginia

Kentucky

Colorado

5

Oregon

Auburn

Butler

Iowa

6

Michigan St.

Arizona

Ohio St.

Marquette

7

Michigan

BYU

Houston

Wisconsin

8

Illinois

LSU

Texas Tech

Rutgers

9

Saint Mary’s

Xavier

Florida

Rhode Island

10

Arizona St.

Wichita St.

Oklahoma

Virginia

11

USC

Indiana

Northern Iowa

USC

12

Liberty

Yale

Utah St.

N. Carolina St.

Richmond

Cincinnati

13

Stephen F. Austin

Vermont

North Texas

Akron

14

New Mexico St.

Colgate

Wright St.

Hofstra

15

South Dakota St.

UC-Irvine

Little Rock

Montana

16

Winthrop

Austin Peay

Prairie View

Siena

St. Francis (PA)

Norfolk St.

 

Bubble Contenders

 

69

Georgetown

70

Purdue

71

Mississippi St.

72

Stanford

73

Providence

74

South Carolina

75

Arkansas

76

Alabama

77

UNC Greensboro

78

Memphis

The First Four

Opening Round in Dayton

12 Seed Game: Utah St. vs. Cincinnati

12 Seed Game: North Carolina St. vs. Richmond

16 Seed Game: Norfolk St. vs. Prairie View

16 Seed Game: Siena vs. St. Francis (PA)

February 10, 2020

PiRate Ratings Bracketology For February 10, 2020

Date

2/10/2020

Seed

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

Team

1

Baylor

Gonzaga

Kansas

San Diego St.

2

Duke

Dayton

Louisville

Maryland

3

Seton Hall

Florida St.

West Virginia

Auburn

4

Villanova

Butler

Oregon

Penn St.

5

Kentucky

Michigan St.

Iowa

Creighton

6

LSU

Colorado

Marquette

Illinois

7

Arizona

Rutgers

Wisconsin

Michigan

8

Houston

Texas Tech

BYU

Ohio St.

9

USC

Purdue

Wichita St.

Arkansas

10

Saint Mary’s

Rhode Island

Oklahoma

Florida

11

Xavier

Indiana

Northern Iowa

Stanford

Virginia

12

E. Tennessee St.

Yale

S. F. Austin

Mississippi St.

VCU

13

Liberty

Vermont

New Mexico St.

North Texas

14

Bowling Green

Wright St.

Colgate

Hofstra

15

Winthrop

Little Rock

Murray St.

UC-Irvine

16

South Dakota St.

Montana

Prairie View

Rider

Robert Morris

N. Carolina A&T

The Bubble Contenders

69

Arizona St.

70

Cincinnati

71

Memphis

72

Utah St.

73

Minnesota

74

N. Carolina St.

75

Richmond

76

Syracuse

77

Notre Dame

78

Furman

 

 

January 30, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 30, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:40 am

Thursday’s Games

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Arkansas St.

Appalachian St.

1.2

Austin Peay

SIU-Edwardsville

16.4

BYU

Pepperdine

15.3

Cal Poly

Cal St. Fullerton

-1.5

Cal St. Northridge

UC Santa Barbara

-2.2

California

Oregon

-10.9

Campbell

High Point

11.7

Charleston Southern

Winthrop

-7.4

Cleveland St.

IUPUI

4.5

Denver

South Dakota

-6.0

Eastern Kentucky

UT Martin

2.9

Elon

Hofstra

-7.2

Florida Atlantic

Western Kentucky

-3.8

Florida International

Marshall

2.1

Georgia Southern

Troy

10.5

Georgia St.

South Alabama

9.0

Illinois

Minnesota

5.2

Jacksonville

Florida Gulf Coast

8.2

Jacksonville St.

Tennessee St.

4.1

James Madison

Charleston

-5.2

Liberty

Kennesaw St.

27.3

Little Rock

Coastal Carolina

5.9

Longwood

Radford

-6.7

Louisiana Tech

Charlotte

10.2

Maryland

Iowa

4.9

Merrimack

St. Francis (NY)

6.1

Morehead St.

Southeast Missouri

5.7

Murray St.

Eastern Illinois

9.8

New Mexico St.

Cal St. Bakersfield

12.3

NJIT

North Alabama

3.4

North Florida

Stetson

10.6

Northern Colorado

Idaho St.

15.2

Pacific

Loyola Marymount

6.4

Portland St.

Montana

0.8

Presbyterian

South Carolina Upstate

1.9

Purdue Fort Wayne

North Dakota

0.9

Robert Morris

Bryant

2.6

Sacred Heart

Mount St. Mary’s

6.3

Saint Mary’s

Portland

20.3

San Diego

San Francisco

-5.2

Santa Clara

Gonzaga

-15.2

Southern Miss

Old Dominion

-2.1

Southern Utah

Weber St.

11.1

St. Francis (PA)

Central Connecticut

19.8

Stanford

Oregon St.

8.1

Tennessee Tech

Belmont

-15.6

Texas St.

Louisiana Monroe

12.5

Towson

UNC Wilmington

12.4

UC Davis

UC Irvine

-3.9

UC Riverside

Long Beach St.

8.2

UCLA

Colorado

-6.5

UNC Asheville

Gardner-Webb

2.4

USC

Utah

8.9

UT Arlington

Louisiana

12.2

UT Rio Grande Valley

Grand Canyon

2.3

UTEP

Middle Tennessee

11.3

UTSA

UAB

3.6

Wagner

Fairleigh Dickinson

1.6

Washington

Arizona

-3.0

Western Illinois

North Dakota St.

-8.7

William & Mary

Northeastern

0.9

Youngstown St

Illinois Chicago

2.8

 

The 10 Best Games On TV Tonight

 

Time (EST)

Network

Home

Visitor

7:00 PM

ESPN+

North Florida

Stetson

7:30 PM

FS1

Illinois

Minnesota

7:30 PM

ESPN+

Louisiana Tech

Charlotte

7:30 PM

ESPN+

Charleston Southern

Winthrop

8:30 PM

BTN

Maryland

Iowa

8:30 PM

CBSSN

BYU

Pepperdine

9:00 PM

Pac-12

California

Oregon

9:00 PM

ESPN2

Washington

Arizona

10:30 PM

CBSSN

Santa Clara

Gonzaga

11:00 PM

ESPN2

UCLA

Colorado

 

 

 

 

January 26, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 26, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:14 am

Sunday’s Games

Home

Visitor

Spread

California

Stanford

-8.5

Connecticut

Tulsa

4.3

Creighton

Xavier

6.2

Drake

Missouri St.

3.4

Fairfield

Canisius

1.5

Houston

South Florida

13.4

Indiana

Maryland

-0.6

Iona

Monmouth

0.6

Manhattan

Rider

-0.3

Minnesota

Michigan St.

-2.4

Northern Iowa

Loyola (Chi)

5.7

Northwestern

Ohio St.

-7.7

Oregon

UCLA

13.6

Saint Louis

Fordham

13.9

Saint Peter’s

Niagara

6.7

Siena

Quinnipiac

4.0

UNLV

San Diego St.

-9.1

Valparaiso

Evansville

10.0

Wake Forest

Virginia

-1.3

 

Saturday Was Upset City

There were more than two dozen upsets Saturday in Division 1 college basketball.  While your favorite team in a power conference may have won, and you’re thinking that you don’t remember many upsets, let us tell you that many of them occurred in the Mid-Major conferences.  Because most of the Mid-Major conferences will be one-bid leagues, and the conference tournament champion will be the representative in the Big Dance, our bracketology must undergo massive restructuring in the #13 through 16 seeds.

Thus, we will put out an update Bracketology later today, or basically as soon as we can clean up the mess and “un-muddle the water.”

 

 

 

 

 

January 15, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 15, 2020

Filed under: College Basketball — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 7:04 am

Power Conference & Top 25 Teams Playing Wednesday

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Butler

Seton Hall

4.8

South Carolina

Kentucky

-6.1

Syracuse

Boston College

10.3

Florida St.

Virginia

7.7

Georgetown

Creighton

1.7

Georgia

Tennessee

0.1

Duquesne

Fordham

16.0

North Carolina St.

Miami (Fla.)

6.8

East Carolina

Tulsa

-3.6

Saint Bonaventure

Massachusetts

6.8

Rutgers

Indiana

3.2

Saint Joseph’s

Rhode Island

-9.6

Baylor

Iowa St.

10.4

Marquette

Xavier

5.4

Oklahoma St.

Texas

4.0

Arkansas

Vanderbilt

13.0

Providence

St. John’s

3.4

Georgia Tech

Notre Dame

1.4

Alabama

Auburn

-2.3

Minnesota

Penn St.

2.8

Temple

Wichita St.

-1.6

Houston

SMU

8.0

Air Force

Boise St.

-0.7

Colorado St.

New Mexico

-0.1

UCLA

Stanford

-3.1

UNLV

San Jose St.

13.4

January 9, 2020

PiRate Ratings College Basketball For January 9, 2020

Power Conference Games & Top 25 Teams Playing Thursday

 

Home

Visitor

Spread

Michigan

Purdue

5.1

Wichita St.

Memphis

2.5

Michigan St.

Minnesota

12.1

Oregon

Arizona

1.2

Stanford

Washington

1.7

California

Washington St.

-0.1

Oregon St.

Arizona St.

4.7

Saint Mary’s

BYU

2.3

 

Coming Tomorrow–Updated Ratings and Bracketology

September 19, 2018

PiRate Ratings Selections for September 20-24, 2018

Hooray for once.  The PiRate Ratings official picks last week enjoyed a nice winning record, sending the year to date record into positive territory.  It is a small profit, as the return on investment is just 1.92%, but at least it isn’t a red number.  Better yet, our straight picks against the spread or in the totals have a record of 11-6-1 for the season.  It is the exotic picks that have stunk up the joint.  Thus, we will go with just straight picks this week.

Best of all, out special Land Sharps are just torching the books with their selections.  One of the sharps, Buckeye Michelle, has been insane with her picks the last two weeks, and we have received messages from some of our regular subscribers asking for more information about her.  First of all, we are not in the business of matchmaking, so don’t ask.  And, yes, she is an incredibly beautiful 29-year old football fanatic.

One of you actually revealed to us that you know who Stewed Meat is.  Stewed is a real sharp.  Stewed lives in Nevada, and handicapping is Stewed career.  Stewed has shown us something special this week that many people never get the opportunity to see performed–playing the middle against both sides.  We’ll explain more about this at the end.

Here are this week’s PiRate Ratings Selections Against The Spread

Favorite Underdog Spread Pick
Wisconsin Iowa 3.5 Iowa
Louisiana Coastal Carolina 4.5 Coastal Carolina
North Carolina St. Marshall 4.5 North Carolina St.
Maryland Minnesota 3 Minnesota
Stanford Oregon 1.5 Stanford
West Virginia Kansas St. 17 Kansas St.
Chicago Arizona 7 Arizona
Philadelphia Indianapolis 6 Philadelphia
Green Bay Washington 3 Washington

Now for the Land Sharps.  At the present time, this is how each has done so far.

Buckeye Michelle is 9-1 for 90% against the spread and +$790 a 79% ROI

Cal Gal Tiffy is 9-3 for 75% against the spread and +$570 a 47.5% ROI

Friday Dog 13 is 4-2 for 67% against the spread and +$180 a 30% ROI

Stewed Meat is 6-4 for 60% against the spread and +$160 a 16% ROI

Dean 615 is 3-3 for 50% against the spread and -$30 a -5% ROI

If more than one of our expert pickers agree on picking the same game, it must be a strong pick.  You will notice that a couple of games were selected by multiple sharps this week.  You will also notice that a couple of sharps picked against each other.

If you are just tuning in to this feature, the rules are simple.  The 5 participants can select against the margin or going over or under the total for any FBS college football game.  They can select 3, 5,7, or 9 games each week.  We then select the most favorable spread available at oddshark.com.

Here are the Land Sharps Picks For the Week.

Buckeye Michelle

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

Wake Forest +8 vs. Notre Dame

Army +32 vs. Oklahoma

Stanford -1.5 vs. Oregon

 

Cal Gal Tiffy

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

South Carolina -2 vs. Vanderbilt

North Carolina St. -4.5 vs. Marshall

UTSA -7 vs. Texas St.

 

Friday Dog 13

Penn St. -28 vs. Illinois

North Carolina St. -4.5 vs. Marshall

Virginia -5 vs. Louisville

Clemson -16 vs. Georgia Tech

TCU -3 vs. Texas

 

Stewed Meat

Minnesota +3 vs. Maryland

Kansas St. +17 vs. West Virginia

Iowa +3.5 vs. Wisconsin

Stanford -1.5 vs. Oregon

Louisville +5.5 vs. Virginia

 

Dean 615

Notre Dame -7 vs. Wake Forest

Michigan St. -4.5 vs. Indiana

USC -3.5 vs. Washington St.

Texas +3.5 vs. TCU

Nebraska +18 vs. Michigan

 

Special Look At Stewed Meat’s Real Life Strategy

Stewed is an expert at “Middling”.  In order to be able to do this, Stewed gets access to playing the early line and then immediately plays one side of a game in which Stewed believes the line is off and will move in the opposite direction of which Stewed originally played.  Then, when the line moves in the opposite direction, Stewed plays the other side

Let’s look at an example.  Let’s say Alabama opens as a 14.5 point favorite over Auburn, and Stewed likes Auburn at this number.  So Stewed wagers on Auburn at +14.5.  During the week, a lot of other people believe 14.5 points are too much for Alabama, and they bet the spread down to 11.5.  Now, Stewed wagers on Alabama at -11.5.

On the surface, you might think this is nuts.  Stewed will have a slim chance of the game ending up at 12, 13, or 14 points in Alabama’s favor, giving Stewed two wins.  In most cases, Stewed will win one and lose one and lose $10 for every $100 wagered on both sides.

However, if you look at the 11-10 odds and do a little mathematical calculations, Stewed only needs to have the game come in at the middle of the extremes one time out of 19 in order to turn a profit, plus Stewed has a Margin of Safety in place, because the most Stewed can lose is 10% on the dollar wagered.

Earlier this week, Stewed Wagered on the following games that have seen a significant line change and then wagered on the other team once the line moved in the other direction.

SMU +12.5 vs. Navy

Navy -7 vs. SMU

 

Ball St. Pk vs. Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky +3 vs. Ball St.

 

Alabama -23.5 vs. Texas A&M

Texas A&M +27 vs. Alabama

 

Auburn -24 vs. Arkansas

Arkansas +30 vs. Auburn

If just one of these four games come in with the spread in the middle, Stewed will turn a nice profit.

September 7, 2017

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Selections For: September 7-11, 2017

Recent PiRate Ratings history has shown that our money line parlay selections have been rather mediocre in the month of September. It figures, since we only select parlays that produce returns of better than 100% if they win. It can be harder earlier in the season to get a solid grasp on teams that we feel are certain to win and not just should win.
Today, we are going to include two long shot parlays that we felt compelled to select, just for the fact that they offer crazy returns, while at the same time looking quite possible.
We hope you do not wager your hard-earned money based on our advice. We know there are many of you that do not heed that recommendation. If you want to lose, you should at least lose picking games from your heart and brain. We never lose, because all we wager is the little bit of time it takes to select our parlays. In our hearts and brains, this is always a lot of fun, so we are guaranteed winners every week.

As for the opening week of the pretend wagering season, we selected just one parlay. It was looking good for awhile, until the Cal Bears put a hurtin’ on North Carolina in Chapel Hill. We lost the 5-game parlay on that one game, as the other four went our way. Alas, as with parlays that return better than 100%, this happens.

This week, we are going with five different parlays. Two of these parlays are long shots, returning hefty profits if they should happen to miraculously win. One of these two could almost guarantee another winning season if it wins, and it incredibly allows us to go with two ranked teams, one in the top 5!

Looking at the official numbers, after one week, we are at $-100 on $100 invested. That is a 100% loss on investment to date.

Here are this week’s parlay selections

 

#1 @ +118  
Must Win Must Lose
Purdue Ohio
New Mexico New Mexico St.

Purdue’s new offense has not yet hit its stride, and it may not this season.  However, the Boilermakers have some athletes getting a chance to shine after being restrained prior to Jeff Brohm’s arrival.  After giving Louisville all it could handle last week, we believe the team believes in Brohm and will come out firing on all cylinders at Ross Ade Stadium.

As for the rivalry in the Land of Enchantment, New Mexico looks like the superior team on both sides of the ball, but the Aggies are not that far behind.  In most years, the Lobos would be stronger favorites.  We believe New Mexico’s running game will eventually control what happens on the scoreboard.

 

 

#2 @ +140  
Must Win Must Lose
UTEP Rice
Miss St. La. Tech

UTEP  looked a tad bit better against Oklahoma than Rice looked against Stanford, and this game is in El Paso.  Throw in the possibility that the Owls may be on the verge of quitting on David Bailiff, while the Miners still have faith in Sean Kugler.

Mississippi State does play Louisiana Tech in Rustin this week, but the Tech home field advantage should not affect the outcome of this game.  The Bulldogs never seem to get the respect they deserve under Dan Mullen.  They are better than any team in CUSA, and they should win this game by double digits.

 

#3 @ +1010  
Must Win Must Lose
Oklahoma Ohio St.
Stanford USC

This parlay intrigued us all week, so we just had to use it.  How frequently does one get a chance to return 10 times his investment while playing two ranked teams?  We are going with the Number 5 and Number 14 team to win, in other words, not really shocking upsets if they happen.  We know the chance that both underdogs win on the road is slim, but hey, this is for more than a thousand in winnings on just $100 invested.

 

 

#4 @ +178  
Must Win Must Lose
Atlanta Chicago
Pittsburgh Cleveland
Denver LA Chargers

This is more like our typical parlay plays.  We believe these three favorites have an excellent chance of starting the year 1-0, and at $178 profit for every $100 invested, it gives a generous reward if the three teams win.

 

 

#5 @ +478  
Must Win Must Lose
Baltimore Cincinnati
New Orleans Minnesota

Seldom is a +478 parlay our favorite selection of a week, but this one is.  It is our opinion that the wrong teams are favored in these two games.  The odds makers are giving the home teams much too much advantage for playing at home.  Cincinnati does not have the great home field advantage it had in the good ole days.  Minnesota’s advantage comes later in the season.  We will go with superior quarterbacks in these two games.

 

Once again, please do not wager your own money (or anybody else’s) on our recommendations.  We go a bit liberal with our selections, because we don’t have any financial stake at risk.

 

 

 

August 24, 2017

PiRate Ratings College Football Forecast for August 26, 2017

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:19 am

It’s here!  We hope you enjoyed a nice summer.  It’s football time in America once again.  Yes, in just two days, five college football games will dot the abbreviated schedule, including a game in Sydney, Australia.

For those new to this online establishment, the PiRates have been issuing ratings since 1969, when the Captain was a little buccaneer.  The ratings have been refined through the years, and in its current form, they look beyond the score of the game.  Our ratings rely on a perusal of the play-by-play data of the games, when the scores took place, how many yards were gained by each team, turnovers, and other odds and sods.  Two teams favored by 7 points over their opponents could both win their games 42-24, and they could mean two different things.  One team might have led 42-7 midway through the third quarter and allowed 17 points with their reserves.  The other team might have led 28-24 with 6 minutes to go in the game, and then the trailing team gave up a pick six and a fumble at their own 15 yard line to give up two late scores.  The former team could have won 70-7 if they had not let off the gas pedal, while the latter team might have lost the game had the turnovers not occurred.

Also, we factor in depth all through the season, underclassmen that contribute unexpectedly, and other factors that might affect a game score.  Additionally, our home field advantages are not fluid.  If North Carolina hosts Wake Forest, the home field advantage will be less than if North Carolina hosts Oregon State.  In some instances, the visiting team brings along an away from home field disadvantage.

We have three predictive ratings–PiRate, Mean, and Bias.  We also have retrodictive ratings that look only at past results and try to rank teams the way the polls should rank them.  At the beginning of the season, these retrodictive ratings have a rather high standard deviation, so we normalize them a bit with our predictive ratings.  By mid-October, these ratings are 100% retrodictive.

Let’s take a look at our Predictive Ratings for the 130 FBS schools.

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 133.4 128.6 132.4 131.5
2 Ohio St. 132.3 129.1 131.3 130.9
3 Washington 129.3 125.1 130.3 128.2
4 Clemson 128.4 124.6 127.5 126.8
5 Florida St. 126.8 124.8 126.1 125.9
6 Penn St. 125.3 122.6 125.8 124.6
7 Oklahoma 123.8 121.8 124.8 123.5
8 Auburn 124.0 121.9 123.9 123.3
9 U S C 120.4 120.1 120.8 120.4
10 Wisconsin 122.2 118.0 120.7 120.3
11 L S U 120.3 118.5 121.0 119.9
12 Oklahoma St. 118.2 117.0 119.8 118.3
13 Washington St. 119.4 116.1 118.6 118.0
14 Miami 118.6 116.2 117.7 117.5
15 Stanford 118.5 116.2 117.1 117.3
16 Georgia 116.3 117.6 116.4 116.8
17 Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.0 116.6
18 Louisville 116.6 115.7 117.0 116.4
19 Michigan 116.5 115.7 115.5 115.9
20 N. Carolina St. 115.2 114.5 114.9 114.9
21 Florida 115.3 114.6 114.6 114.8
22 Kansas St. 113.9 113.4 114.3 113.9
23 Northwestern 113.9 111.3 113.5 112.9
24 Texas 112.2 113.0 112.4 112.6
25 Colorado 114.1 111.5 111.8 112.4
26 Georgia Tech 113.2 110.5 111.3 111.7
27 Iowa 111.6 111.2 111.3 111.4
28 Kentucky 111.7 110.2 111.2 111.0
29 South Florida 111.1 109.0 112.3 110.8
30 T C U 111.4 108.6 111.1 110.3
31 Tennessee 111.4 109.6 109.5 110.2
32 Arkansas 109.5 109.1 109.5 109.4
33 Vanderbilt 110.2 108.5 109.2 109.3
34 Syracuse 110.3 108.1 109.3 109.2
35 Oregon 110.6 107.2 109.6 109.1
36 Notre Dame 109.7 107.8 109.6 109.0
37 N. Carolina 109.9 108.4 108.3 108.9
38 Pittsburgh 108.8 108.8 108.0 108.5
39 U C L A 108.6 107.7 108.0 108.1
40 West Virginia 107.7 108.8 107.5 108.0
41 Memphis 107.4 106.1 108.1 107.2
42 Ole Miss 107.6 106.2 106.0 106.6
43 Minnesota 106.8 106.3 106.5 106.5
44 Utah 105.4 108.1 105.6 106.4
45 Texas A&M 107.6 105.2 106.2 106.3
46 S. Carolina 106.4 106.1 105.6 106.0
47 Duke 106.3 105.1 104.9 105.4
48 Nebraska 104.7 106.3 104.0 105.0
49 Tulsa 105.3 104.1 105.3 104.9
50 Mississippi St. 104.4 105.1 104.6 104.7
51 Baylor 103.9 106.4 103.8 104.7
52 Indiana 104.3 104.6 104.5 104.5
53 Houston 104.1 102.9 104.0 103.7
54 Arizona St. 103.7 103.7 102.5 103.3
55 Missouri 104.7 101.3 103.4 103.1
56 B Y U 103.0 101.9 103.6 102.8
57 Maryland 101.8 104.3 101.7 102.6
58 Wake Forest 102.7 102.2 102.0 102.3
59 Boston Coll. 102.0 102.9 101.5 102.1
60 Oregon St. 102.5 101.7 101.1 101.8
61 Iowa State 101.0 102.4 101.7 101.7
62 Western Michigan 102.1 98.4 103.8 101.4
63 Colo. State 101.3 100.5 101.2 101.0
64 Texas Tech 101.3 101.0 100.1 100.8
65 San Diego St. 99.7 100.7 101.3 100.6
66 Central Florida 99.1 101.5 99.8 100.2
67 Toledo 99.3 99.1 100.9 99.8
68 W. Kentucky 99.8 97.3 101.6 99.6
69 Virginia 98.7 98.8 99.7 99.1
70 Appalachian St. 99.8 96.8 100.4 99.0
71 Navy 98.0 98.9 97.7 98.2
72 Temple 97.5 98.2 97.8 97.8
73 Wyoming 99.0 96.4 97.8 97.7
74 Boise St. 98.4 96.6 97.6 97.5
75 Arizona 98.3 97.1 95.9 97.1
76 Michigan St. 95.4 100.1 95.6 97.0
77 SMU 96.3 96.6 96.7 96.5
78 California 97.8 95.3 95.7 96.3
79 Miami (O) 94.3 96.6 96.8 95.9
80 Purdue 94.7 97.3 95.4 95.8
81 Rutgers 95.5 95.7 94.6 95.3
82 Army 94.6 94.2 95.5 94.8
83 Tulane 93.9 94.3 94.3 94.2
84 Troy 94.1 94.4 93.4 94.0
85 Eastern Michigan 93.5 93.1 93.6 93.4
86 New Mexico 92.8 93.3 93.7 93.3
87 U T S A 91.3 93.1 93.5 92.6
88 Old Dominion 90.9 93.9 91.4 92.1
89 Kansas 91.0 94.4 90.3 91.9
90 Air Force 91.5 92.2 91.8 91.8
91 Cincinnati 90.2 93.0 91.7 91.6
92 Ohio U 90.3 92.0 91.2 91.2
93 Middle Tennessee 90.5 91.6 91.4 91.2
94 Louisiana Tech 90.2 92.0 91.1 91.1
95 Central Michigan 90.4 90.6 90.8 90.6
96 Illinois 90.1 92.0 88.4 90.2
97 Arkansas St. 88.3 90.1 90.0 89.5
98 Hawaii 88.8 90.8 88.6 89.4
99 East Carolina 88.3 89.6 88.3 88.7
100 Connecticut 87.4 90.6 88.0 88.7
101 Idaho 86.4 89.1 87.2 87.5
102 Utah St. 87.7 86.7 86.9 87.1
103 U N L V 85.3 88.5 85.7 86.5
104 Georgia St. 86.3 85.5 86.2 86.0
105 Northern Illinois 85.7 85.8 85.9 85.8
106 Akron 84.3 88.5 84.5 85.8
107 San Jose St. 86.2 85.5 85.5 85.7
108 UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.8 84.7 85.5
109 Massachusetts 86.0 84.4 86.0 85.5
110 Fresno St. 85.6 84.2 85.7 85.2
111 Nevada 83.0 86.9 85.3 85.0
112 S. Alabama 83.8 86.8 84.0 84.9
113 Southern Miss. 84.3 86.1 84.2 84.8
114 Kent St. 83.7 85.3 84.9 84.6
115 Florida Int’l. 84.0 83.9 85.2 84.4
116 Florida Atlantic 82.5 86.1 83.6 84.1
117 N. Mexico St. 84.2 81.5 83.2 83.0
118 Bowling Green 82.4 82.6 83.7 82.9
119 Marshall 81.9 83.8 82.7 82.8
120 Buffalo 79.7 83.7 81.6 81.7
121 N. Texas 80.5 82.1 80.4 81.0
122 Georgia Southern 80.4 82.1 79.8 80.8
123 Rice 80.1 81.0 80.8 80.6
124 Ball St. 78.2 80.5 79.7 79.5
125 UL-Monroe 79.6 80.2 77.8 79.2
126 U T E P 74.8 79.3 76.1 76.8
127 Charlotte 74.4 77.6 74.9 75.6
128 Coastal Carolina 72.1 73.5 73.9 73.2
129 Texas St. 70.7 74.7 69.4 71.6
130 UAB 63.7 69.2 65.9 66.3

Here are the predictive ratings by conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
South Florida 111.1 109.0 112.3 110.8
Central Florida 99.1 101.5 99.8 100.2
Temple 97.5 98.2 97.8 97.8
Cincinnati 90.2 93.0 91.7 91.6
East Carolina 88.3 89.6 88.3 88.7
Connecticut 87.4 90.6 88.0 88.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Memphis 107.4 106.1 108.1 107.2
Tulsa 105.3 104.1 105.3 104.9
Houston 104.1 102.9 104.0 103.7
Navy 98.0 98.9 97.7 98.2
SMU 96.3 96.6 96.7 96.5
Tulane 93.9 94.3 94.3 94.2
         
AAC Averages   98.7 98.7 98.5
         
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 128.4 124.6 127.5 126.8
Florida St. 126.8 124.8 126.1 125.9
Louisville 116.6 115.7 117.0 116.4
N. Carolina St. 115.2 114.5 114.9 114.9
Syracuse 110.3 108.1 109.3 109.2
Wake Forest 102.7 102.2 102.0 102.3
Boston College 102.0 102.9 101.5 102.1
         
Coastal Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami 118.6 116.2 117.7 117.5
Virginia Tech 116.6 116.2 117.0 116.6
Georgia Tech 113.2 110.5 111.3 111.7
N. Carolina 109.9 108.4 108.3 108.9
Pittsburgh 108.8 108.8 108.0 108.5
Duke 106.3 105.1 104.9 105.4
Virginia 98.7 98.8 99.7 99.1
         
ACC Averages 112.4 111.2 111.8 111.8
         
Big 12 Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 123.8 121.8 124.8 123.5
Oklahoma St. 118.2 117.0 119.8 118.3
Kansas St. 113.9 113.4 114.3 113.9
Texas 112.2 113.0 112.4 112.6
T C U 111.4 108.6 111.1 110.3
West Virginia 107.7 108.8 107.5 108.0
Baylor 103.9 106.4 103.8 104.7
Iowa State 101.0 102.4 101.7 101.7
Texas Tech 101.3 101.0 100.1 100.8
Kansas 91.0 94.4 90.3 91.9
         
Big 12 Averages 108.4 108.7 108.6 108.6
         
Big Ten Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 132.3 129.1 131.3 130.9
Penn St. 125.3 122.6 125.8 124.6
Michigan 116.5 115.7 115.5 115.9
Indiana 104.3 104.6 104.5 104.5
Maryland 101.8 104.3 101.7 102.6
Michigan St. 95.4 100.1 95.6 97.0
Rutgers 95.5 95.7 94.6 95.3
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Wisconsin 122.2 118.0 120.7 120.3
Northwestern 113.9 111.3 113.5 112.9
Iowa 111.6 111.2 111.3 111.4
Minnesota 106.8 106.3 106.5 106.5
Nebraska 104.7 106.3 104.0 105.0
Purdue 94.7 97.3 95.4 95.8
Illinois 90.1 92.0 88.4 90.2
         
Big Ten Averages 108.2 108.2 107.8 108.1
         
Conference USA
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
W. Kentucky 99.8 97.3 101.6 99.6
Old Dominion 90.9 93.9 91.4 92.1
Middle Tennessee 90.5 91.6 91.4 91.2
Florida Int’l. 84.0 83.9 85.2 84.4
Florida Atlantic 82.5 86.1 83.6 84.1
Marshall 81.9 83.8 82.7 82.8
Charlotte 74.4 77.6 74.9 75.6
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
U T S A 91.3 93.1 93.5 92.6
Louisiana Tech 90.2 92.0 91.1 91.1
Southern Miss. 84.3 86.1 84.2 84.8
N. Texas 80.5 82.1 80.4 81.0
Rice 80.1 81.0 80.8 80.6
U T E P 74.8 79.3 76.1 76.8
UAB 63.7 69.2 65.9 66.3
         
CUSA Averages 89.9 92.1 91.0 91.0
         
Independents
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame 109.7 107.8 109.6 109.0
B Y U 103.0 101.9 103.6 102.8
Army 94.6 94.2 95.5 94.8
Massachusetts 86.0 84.4 86.0 85.5
         
Independents Averages 98.3 97.1 98.7 98.0
         
Mid-American Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Miami (O) 94.3 96.6 96.8 95.9
Ohio U 90.3 92.0 91.2 91.2
Akron 84.3 88.5 84.5 85.8
Kent St. 83.7 85.3 84.9 84.6
Bowling Green 82.4 82.6 83.7 82.9
Buffalo 79.7 83.7 81.6 81.7
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Michigan 102.1 98.4 103.8 101.4
Toledo 99.3 99.1 100.9 99.8
Eastern Michigan 93.5 93.1 93.6 93.4
Central Michigan 90.4 90.6 90.8 90.6
Northern Illinois 85.7 85.8 85.9 85.8
Ball St. 78.2 80.5 79.7 79.5
         
MAC Averages 88.7 89.7 89.8 89.4
         
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Colo. State 101.3 100.5 101.2 101.0
Wyoming 99.0 96.4 97.8 97.7
Boise St. 98.4 96.6 97.6 97.5
New Mexico 92.8 93.3 93.7 93.3
Air Force 91.5 92.2 91.8 91.8
Utah St. 87.7 86.7 86.9 87.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 99.7 100.7 101.3 100.6
Hawaii 88.8 90.8 88.6 89.4
U N L V 85.3 88.5 85.7 86.5
San Jose St. 86.2 85.5 85.5 85.7
Fresno St. 85.6 84.2 85.7 85.2
Nevada 83.0 86.9 85.3 85.0
         
MWC Averages 91.6 91.9 91.8 91.7
         
Pac-12 Conference
North Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Washington 129.3 125.1 130.3 128.2
Washington St. 119.4 116.1 118.6 118.0
Stanford 118.5 116.2 117.1 117.3
Oregon 110.6 107.2 109.6 109.1
Oregon St. 102.5 101.7 101.1 101.8
California 97.8 95.3 95.7 96.3
         
South Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
U S C 120.4 120.1 120.8 120.4
Colorado 114.1 111.5 111.8 112.4
U C L A 108.6 107.7 108.0 108.1
Utah 105.4 108.1 105.6 106.4
Arizona St. 103.7 103.7 102.5 103.3
Arizona 98.3 97.1 95.9 97.1
         
Pac-12 Averages 110.7 109.1 109.8 109.9
         
Southeastern Conference
East Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia 116.3 117.6 116.4 116.8
Florida 115.3 114.6 114.6 114.8
Kentucky 111.7 110.2 111.2 111.0
Tennessee 111.4 109.6 109.5 110.2
Vanderbilt 110.2 108.5 109.2 109.3
S. Carolina 106.4 106.1 105.6 106.0
Missouri 104.7 101.3 103.4 103.1
         
West Division        
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 133.4 128.6 132.4 131.5
Auburn 124.0 121.9 123.9 123.3
L S U 120.3 118.5 121.0 119.9
Arkansas 109.5 109.1 109.5 109.4
Ole Miss 107.6 106.2 106.0 106.6
Texas A&M 107.6 105.2 106.2 106.3
Mississippi St. 104.4 105.1 104.6 104.7
         
SEC Averages 113.1 111.6 112.4 112.4
         
Sunbelt Conference
Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
Appalachian St. 99.8 96.8 100.4 99.0
Troy 94.1 94.4 93.4 94.0
Arkansas St. 88.3 90.1 90.0 89.5
Idaho 86.4 89.1 87.2 87.5
Georgia St. 86.3 85.5 86.2 86.0
UL-Lafayette 84.9 86.8 84.7 85.5
S. Alabama 83.8 86.8 84.0 84.9
N. Mexico St. 84.2 81.5 83.2 83.0
Georgia Southern 80.4 82.1 79.8 80.8
UL-Monroe 79.6 80.2 77.8 79.2
Coastal Carolina 72.1 73.5 73.9 73.2
Texas St. 70.7 74.7 69.4 71.6
         
Sun Belt Averages 84.2 85.1 84.2 84.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC Averages 113.1 111.6 112.4 112.4
2 ACC Averages 112.4 111.2 111.8 111.8
3 Pac-12 Averages 110.7 109.1 109.8 109.9
4 Big 12 Averages 108.4 108.7 108.6 108.6
5 Big Ten Averages 108.2 108.2 107.8 108.1
6 AAC Averages 98.2 98.7 98.7 98.5
7 Independents Averages 98.3 97.1 98.7 98.0
8 MWC Averages 91.6 91.9 91.8 91.7
9 CUSA Averages 89.9 92.1 91.0 91.0
10 MAC Averages 88.7 89.7 89.8 89.4
11 Sun Belt Averages 84.2 85.1 84.2 84.5

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Ohio St.
3 Florida St.
4 Clemson
5 Washington
6 Oklahoma
7 USC
8 Penn St.
9 LSU
10 Oklahoma St.
11 Auburn
12 Miami (Fla)
13 Wisconsin
14 Stanford
15 Michigan
16 Florida
17 Virginia Tech
18 Kansas St.
19 Louisville
20 Washington St.
21 Georgia
22 Texas A&M
23 Georgia Tech
24 Utah
25 Tennessee
26 South Florida
27 Iowa
28 Tulsa
29 West Virginia
30 North Carolina
31 Nebraska
32 Western Michigan
33 Colorado
34 North Carolina St.
35 Pittsburgh
36 BYU
37 Houston
38 Northwestern
39 Kentucky
40 TCU
41 Western Kentucky
42 Boise St.
43 Appalachian St.
44 San Diego St.
45 Toledo
46 Minnesota
47 Arkansas
48 Memphis
49 Texas
50 Baylor
51 Mississippi St.
52 Colorado St.
53 Oregon
54 Vanderbilt
55 Ole Miss
56 South Carolina
57 Temple
58 Troy
59 Navy
60 UCLA
61 Notre Dame
62 California
63 Indiana
64 Idaho
65 Wake Forest
66 Old Dominion
67 Louisiana Tech
68 Boston College
69 Arkansas St.
70 Air Force
71 Michigan St.
72 Central Florida
73 Syracuse
74 Duke
75 Missouri
76 Wyoming
77 Texas Tech
78 Arizona St.
79 New Mexico
80 Maryland
81 Arizona
82 Oregon St.
83 Army
84 Ohio
85 Eastern Michigan
86 Middle Tennessee
87 Southern Miss.
88 SMU
89 Iowa St.
90 Northern Illinois
91 UTSA
92 Hawaii
93 Georgia Southern
94 Central Michigan
95 Miami (O)
96 UL-Lafayette
97 Cincinnati
98 Illinois
99 Tulane
100 South Alabama
101 Purdue
102 Akron
103 Utah St.
104 Virginia
105 San Jose St.
106 Nevada
107 Bowling Green
108 North Texas
109 East Carolina
110 UNLV
111 Rutgers
112 Coastal Carolina
113 Kansas
114 Ball St.
115 Georgia St.
116 Connecticut
117 UL-Monroe
118 Kent St.
119 UTEP
120 Charlotte
121 Marshall
122 Florida Int’l.
123 Rice
124 Massachusetts
125 Florida Atlantic
126 New Mexico St.
127 Fresno St.
128 Texas St.
129 Buffalo
130 UAB

 

This Week’s Spreads

Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Colorado St. Oregon St. 1.8 1.8 3.1
Massachusetts Hawaii 0.2 -1.4 1.4
San Jose St. South Florida -21.4 -20.0 -23.3
Stanford * Rice 38.4 35.2 36.4
         
* This game will be played in Sydney, Australia

 

This Week’s FBS vs. FCS Games
Home Visitor PiRate
BYU Portland St. 32.0

 

BOWL PROJECTIONS

Bowl Conferences Team 1 Team 2
New Orleans CUSA SBC Middle Tennessee South Alabama
Cure AAC SBC Temple Appalachian St.
Las Vegas MWC 1 PAC-12 5 San Diego St. UCLA
New Mexico CUSA MWC Southern Miss. New Mexico
Camellia MAC SBC Miami (O) Arkansas St.
Boca Raton AAC CUSA Houston Louisiana Tech
Frisco AAC MAC SMU Idaho
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA Central Florida Western Kentucky
Bahamas CUSA 1 MAC Old Dominion Toledo
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Ohio U Wyoming
Birmingham AAC SEC 8-9 Tulsa Mississippi St.
Armed Forces Army BIG TEN 8 Army [Florida Atlantic]
Dollar General MAC SBC Western Michigan Georgia St.
Hawaii AAC MWC Memphis Colorado St.
Heart of Dallas BIG 12 6 CUSA [Syracuse] UTSA
Quick Lane ACC 7-9 BIG TEN 7 Duke Indiana
Cactus BIG 12 5 PAC-12 6 West Virginia Colorado
Independence ACC 7-9 SEC 8-9 Georgia Tech [Navy]
Pinstripe ACC 3-6 BIG TEN 5 Notre Dame Nebraska
Foster Farms BIG TEN 6 PAC-12 8 Minnesota Oregon
Texas BIG 12 3 SEC 2-7 TCU Arkansas
Military AAC 7-9 ACC 7-9 [BYU] North Carolina
Camping World ACC 2 BIG 12 2 Virginia Tech Kansas St.
Holiday BIG TEN 3 PAC-12 2 Iowa Stanford
Alamo BIG 12 1 PAC-12 1 Texas Washington St.
Belk ACC 3-6 SEC 2-7 Louisville Tennessee
Sun ACC 3-6 Pac-12 North Carolina St. Utah
Music City ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Miami (Fla) Vanderbilt
Arizona MWC SBC Boise St. Troy
Cotton At-large At-large Oklahoma Penn St.
Taxslayer ACC 3-6/B10 4 SEC 2-7 Northwestern Florida
Liberty BIG 12 4 SEC 2-7 Baylor Texas A&M
Fiesta At-large At-large Washington Oklahoma St.
Orange ACC 1 SEC 1/B10 1 Clemson Georgia
Outback BIG TEN 2 SEC 2-7 Michigan Kentucky
Peach At-large At-large Florida St. South Florida
Citrus B10 1/ACC 2 SEC 1 Wisconsin LSU
Rose Playoff Semi-final Auburn Alabama
Sugar Playoff Semi-final Ohio St. USC
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Ohio St. Alabama

Note: There will be no money line parlay selections issued this week.  There are not enough games.  That feature will commence next Thursday morning.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

October 20, 2016

PiRate Ratings Money Line Parlay Picks–October 20-24, 2016

Not So Good

Last weekend was not a great one for the parlay-pickers at PiRate Headquarters.  We selected four longshot parlays and returned one winner at +192, as upsets by Eastern Michigan and Vanderbilt prevented a potential major windfall.

For the season, this drops our mediocre results to just plain not-so-good.  As usual, our solace is that we are not out a penny, because we never actually invest real currency (or whatever you call those green notes in your wallet).

We’re not all that enthused with this week’s schedule either.  It took an extra afternoon to come up with four picks, and we included two underdogs to win outright in our four plays.  Good luck with that.

It may be a better weekend to hike in the forest with all the changing colors on the trees.

1. College Parlay @ +209
California over Oregon
North Carolina over Virginia
West Virginia over TCU
 
2.College Parlay @ +234
Colorado over Stanford
Oklahoma over Texas Tech
Alabama over Texas A&M
Tulsa over Tulane
 
3. College Singleton @ +275
Arizona St. over Washington St.
 
4. NFL Parlay @ +208
Green Bay over Chicago
Cincinnati over Cleveland
Atlanta over San Diego
Denver over Houston
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