The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 26, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 8–October 31- November 1, 2010

Time For A Horse Or Two To Move Out Of The Pack 

This is the time of year where the eventual Super Bowl participants begin to kick it up a notch.  It doesn’t happen every season; for instance, we knew that New Orleans and Indianapolis were the class of the NFL last year from the second or third week.  However, in most seasons, somewhere around games five thru seven, a couple of teams begin to separate from the pack.  You don’t always realize it until the last quarter of the season.  A 3-3 team will go 5-1 to move to 8-4.  That team may still trail two or three teams in their conference.  While everybody else looks at the 10-2 teams, it is really the hot 8-4 team that is primed to win in the playoffs.

Which AFC teams appear to be peaking at this time?  The Jets, Steelers, Patriots, and Ravens are not peaking.  The Jets could turn out to be a great team that is going to “wire the field,” but we see two teams that look to be decent fits for this pattern.  Both happen to be in the same division.  The Indianapolis Colts may not be close to last year’s team in talent, but they are starting to play like a playoff winner.  The Tennessee Titans better fit this pattern.  They look like a team that could run off five or six wins in a row, after winning three in a row in impressive fashion.

Stranger things have happened in the past, so we must look at the Browns and Raiders at this point.  Both pulled off impressive victories on the road last week.  We are not saying they will run off five more in succession, but we must take a hard look at their games this week. 

In the NFC, the New York Giants clearly exhibit the pattern we are looking for.  The Seattle Seahawks are the other team to monitor for this possible scenario.  We think there is still going to be one other team that will break out from the pack in the next two weeks and begin to look like a playoff winner.  Philadelphia could be that team.

Beans On Bowl

This is the week for the annual game across the pond.  When San Francisco and Denver face off in London this weekend, it could set back global football relations for years.  Could we see a coaching dismissal made some point over the Atlantic Ocean on the return flight?  Even the blokes in Jolly Ole’ England know when somebody is trying to pull a fast one over them on the football field.

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
   
NFC East
PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T PPG Opp
New York Giants 104.0 103.7 105.7 5-2-0 25.0 21.9
Philadelphia 102.9 102.0 102.1 4-3-0 24.6 22.4
Dallas 101.9 100.2 98.0 1-5-0 22.8 25.3
Washington 99.4 100.5 100.5 4-3-0 18.6 19.0
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 102.8 102.9 103.5 4-3-0 23.9 19.4
Minnesota 102.7 101.2 100.1 2-4-0 18.5 19.3
Chicago 98.1 100.0 99.0 4-3-0 18.0 16.3
Detroit 96.5 98.4 95.3 1-5-0 24.3 23.3
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Atlanta 103.8 103.3 104.4 5-2-0 24.1 19.0
New Orleans 101.4 99.9 101.4 4-3-0 21.0 19.7
Carolina 97.6 92.4 93.1 1-5-0 12.5 21.7
Tampa Bay 92.9 95.4 97.6 4-2-0 16.3 21.3
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Seattle 98.4 98.5 100.5 4-2-0 20.0 17.8
San Francisco 96.6 94.7 92.8 1-6-0 16.1 23.1
St. Louis 94.3 96.5 96.3 3-4-0 17.1 18.7
Arizona 93.0 95.6 95.3 3-3-0 16.3 26.7
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 110.4 107.4 109.5 5-1-0 26.5 16.8
New England 106.6 105.7 106.6 5-1-0 29.5 22.7
Miami 101.3 100.2 102.0 3-3-0 18.5 22.5
Buffalo 92.7 91.9 90.9 0-6-0 20.2 33.0
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Pittsburgh 105.5 107.6 107.4 5-1-0 22.8 13.7
Baltimore 105.4 104.0 104.8 5-2-0 21.3 18.4
Cincinnati 100.3 98.8 99.2 2-4-0 22.0 23.7
Cleveland 98.4 97.9 96.2 2-5-0 16.9 20.3
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Tennessee 105.3 107.9 106.8 5-2-0 28.4 16.7
Indianapolis 105.1 105.0 105.6 4-2-0 27.2 20.8
Houston 100.3 99.6 101.1 4-2-0 25.5 27.8
Jacksonville 90.8 92.6 91.8 3-4-0 18.6 29.9
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Kansas City 101.3 101.5 102.3 4-2-0 25.0 18.7
San Diego 99.7 100.4 98.2 2-5-0 25.3 21.3
Oakland 97.0 98.2 97.8 3-4-0 25.6 23.6
Denver 94.0 96.0 94.3 2-5-0 19.7 28.4
This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 8: October 31-November 1, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 3:30 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
San Francisco Denver  (London) 2.6 -1.3 -1.5 Pk 42   
DALLAS Jacksonville 13.1 9.6 8.2 6 1/2 42 1/2
DETROIT Washington 0.1 0.9 -2.2 2 1/2 44   
NEW YORK JETS Green Bay 9.6 6.5 8.0 6    42   
Carolina ST. LOUIS 0.3 -7.1 -6.2 3    37   
CINCINNATI Miami 1.0 0.6 -0.8 2    43 1/2
KANSAS CITY Buffalo 11.6 12.6 14.4 7 1/2 44 1/2
Tennessee SAN DIEGO 1.6 3.5 4.6 -4    44   
ARIZONA Tampa Bay 2.1 2.2 -0.3 3    39 1/2
OAKLAND Seattle 0.6 1.7 -0.7 2 1/2 42   
NEW ENGLAND Minnesota 7.9 8.5 10.5 6    42 1/2
Pittsburgh NEW ORLEANS 1.1 4.7 3.0 -1    44 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS Houston 7.8 8.4 7.5 5 1/2 49 1/2

 

PiRate QB Passer Ratings

Player Team AYPA Int % PiRate #
Michael Vick PHI 6.7 0.00 121.5
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 8.8 1.85 117.0
Peyton Manning IND 6.9 0.79 115.7
Kyle Orton DEN 6.3 1.45 106.5
Mark Sanchez NYJ 5.1 1.13 102.6
Phillip Rivers SD 6.7 2.22 102.0
Josh Freeman TB 5.0 1.51 98.7
Matt Cassel KC 5.5 1.96 97.5
Vince Young TEN 5.4 1.98 96.8
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 2.00 96.6
Matt Ryan ATL 5.3 1.98 96.2
Tom Brady NE 5.3 2.02 95.9
Matt Schaub HOU 5.7 2.54 93.6
Chad Henne MIA 5.4 2.42 93.0
Carson Palmer CIN 5.3 2.46 92.0
Joe Flacco BAL 5.3 2.54 91.3
Kevin Kolb PHI 4.9 2.61 88.4
Donovan McNabb WAS 5.1 2.83 87.6
Tony Romo DAL 5.7 3.29 87.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 5.4 3.13 86.7
Drew Brees NO 5.1 3.48 81.9
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 4.1 2.94 81.1
Aaron Rodgers GB 5.4 3.83 80.5
Shaun Hill DET 4.4 3.37 79.0
Sam Bradford STL 3.7 3.08 77.6
Jay Cutler CHI 4.8 3.87 76.8
Alex Smith SF 4.2 3.72 74.8
Kerry Collins TEN 4.8 4.17 74.2
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 4.3 3.92 73.6
Jason Campbell OAK 3.6 3.60 72.4
Eli Manning NYG 4.8 4.60 70.4
Jimmy Clausen CAR 2.6 3.30 69.5
Derek Anderson ARI 3.2 3.82 68.3
David Garrard JAX 3.2 5.47 53.8
Brett Favre MIN 3.3 5.59 53.3
Charlie Batch PIT 3.7 6.12 50.8
Trent Edwards JAX 1.4 5.26 45.5
Max Hall ARI 0.9 5.08 44.3
Matt Moore CAR 2.5 7.00 36.4

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It is the average pass yardage per attempt minus yards after catch.  This statistic is available at advancednflstats.com.

October 19, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 7–October 24-25, 2010

A PiRate Look at the Playoff Chase

Parity, shmarity!  12 and only 12 teams will make the playoffs, and 20 teams will not regardless of how close the 32 teams might be in talent.  How do we look for the playoff teams? 

We wish we could tell you we have a great formula like we have for picking the NCAA Basketball Tournament.  If you want to read about that, click on the College Basketball link on the right side of the page and read up on how successful our tournament formula has been in the past. 

The only tell-tale sign in back-testing that is worth a grain of salt is scoring margin.  Teams with scoring margins over 10 points per game have historically dominated in the playoffs.  At this point of the season, it is too early to use scoring margin due to a small sampling of games.  After 16 games, the strengths of schedule differ much less, but after six games, the margin is too much.

 

Let’s try to look at the divisions strictly by how well the teams appear to be playing. 

NFC East

 

Dallas can forget hosting the Super Bowl.  They won’t make the playoffs this season.  The Giants and Eagles have yet to play each other, but we feel like Philadelphia is a little better at this point and believe the Eagles will soar above the rest in the East.  New York will stay in the playoff race.  Washington looks like an 8-8 team. 

NFC North

 

Green Bay’s injury problems have left this division race open for three teams.  Minnesota should begin to play better offensively as Randy Moss gets more and more acclimated to his old digs.  Chicago appears to be lacking the offensive line strength to win 10 games.  The Bears could be 9-7 or 8-8, and we think 9-7 will not be enough to qualify as a Wildcard.  As for the Packers, it is going to be tough relying strictly on the passing game when the weather turns frigid.  We think Minnesota will win the North with a 10-6 record. 

NFC South

 

As soon as Tampa Bay proves to be unworthy of playoff mention, this will become a two-team race between Atlanta and New Orleans.  They could finish in a tie, with the tiebreaker loser gaining a Wildcard spot.  We think both could finish 11-5. 

NFC West

 

It has never happened before, but there is a chance it could happen this year.  No division winner has ever been 8-8 or worse, but it could happen in this division.  Arizona and San Francisco have little on offense, while Seattle and St. Louis have so much young and inconsistent talent.  If we had to pick one team to go 9-7, it would be Pete Carroll’s Seahawks. 

AFC East

 

With Buffalo primed to go 2-14 or worse and probably go 0-6 in division play, it allows the other three teams to clean up in the standings.  The Jets look like the class of the league at this point of the season, but they are not dominant yet.  New England is solid, while Miami has enough talent to stay in the playoff picture.  We will call for the Jets to win the division at 12-4 or 13-3 with the Patriots in the Wildcard picture at 11-5 or 12-4.  As for Miami, the Dolphins will stay in the hunt for most of the season before settling in at 9-7. 

AFC North

Pittsburgh and Baltimore are as strong collectively as the Jets and Patriots.  We feel strongly that both teams will make the playoffs with records in the 12-4 range.  Cincinnati is going to struggle to finish at 8-8, while Cleveland will lose double digit games again. 

AFC South

 

With the East and North both having two very good teams, there won’t be room for a Wildcard in this division.  Three teams sit tied at 4-2.  Houston’s defense will cost them a game or two down the stretch.  Tennessee and Indianapolis should decide this division in their head-to-head matchups.  We will go with the great Peyton Manning to pull off two close wins and give the Colts another division title at 11-5.  Jacksonville will more than likely be shopping for a new coach.  They should be shopping for a new city.  The Los Angeles Jaguars has a nice ring to it. 

AFC West

 

San Diego cannot win on the road, and the last time we checked, they have eight road games.  Denver has not started on fire this year and will not be 6-2 at the halfway point before they collapse in the second half.  Oakland is still a dozen quality players short, while Kansas City has shown just enough to lead this division.  We think the Chiefs could pull this off at 9-7. 

Our playoff Soothsayer sees this scenario:

 

NFC

1. Philadelphia

2. New Orleans

3. Minnesota

4. Seattle

W. Atlanta 

W. New York Giants 

AFC

1. New York Jets

2. Pittsburgh

3. Indianapolis

4. Kansas City

W. New England 

W. Baltimore 

 

Wildcard Round

New York Giants at Minnesota

Atlanta at Seattle 

Baltimore at Indianapolis

New England at Kansas City 

Divisional Round

 

Minnesota at Philadelphia

Seattle at New Orleans 

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh

New England at New York Jets

 

Conference Championship

New Orleans at Philadelphia

 

Pittsburgh at New York Jets 

SUPER BOWL

 

Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh 

Winner: The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

 

This Week’s PiRate Passer Ratings 

Player Team Comp% Int % AYPA PiRate #
Michael Vick PHI 61.5 0.00 6.7 121.5
Peyton Manning IND  67.3 0.79 6.9 115.7
Kyle Orton DEN 62.8 1.21 6.7 110.8
Phillip Rivers SD 62.3 2.27 7 103.2
Mark Sanchez NYJ 55.4 1.13 5.1 102.6
Kevin Kolb PHI 67.6 1.90 5.8 99.7
Jay Cutler CHI 60.3 2.13 5.7 97.2
Vince Young TEN 61.4 1.98 5.4 96.8
Seneca Wallace CLE 63.0 2.00 5.4 96.6
Josh Freeman TB 59.1 1.89 5.1 96.0
Matt Ryan ATL 60.3 1.83 5 95.9
Tom Brady NE 67.5 2.41 5.6 94.2
Donovan McNabb WAS 58.1 2.33 5.4 93.8
Matt Schaub HOU 64.5 2.54 5.7 93.6
Drew Brees NO 70.6 2.60 5.7 93.1
Matt Cassel KC 57.8 2.22 4.9 91.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 61.2 2.35 4.9 90.7
Chad Henne MIA 63.2 2.92 5.1 86.8
Joe Flacco BAL 60.5 2.93 5.1 86.8
Tony Romo DAL 69.4 3.40 5.7 86.0
Carson Palmer CIN 59.3 3.09 4.8 83.7
Aaron Rodgers GB 64.2 3.48 5.3 83.0
Shaun Hill DET 61.1 3.37 4.4 79.0
Eli Manning NYG 64.7 3.92 4.9 76.9
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 61.4 3.61 4.2 75.7
Sam Bradford STL 56.8 3.42 3.6 74.1
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 52.0 3.92 4.3 73.6
Alex Smith SF 60.1 4.04 4.1 71.4
Jimmie Clausen CAR 47.3 3.30 2.6 69.5
Brett Favre MIN 58.7 4.67 3.5 62.5
Derek Anderson ARI 51.8 4.39 2.8 61.1
Jason Campbell OAK 56.0 4.40 2.6 59.9
David Garrard JAX 65.6 5.47 3.2 53.8
Charlie Batch PIT 59.2 6.12 3.7 50.8
Trent Edwards JAX 56.6 5.26 1.4 45.5
Jake Delhomme CLE 55.0 6.67 2.2 37.7
Matt Moore CAR 42.4 10.17 0.2 -4.4

 

The PiRate Passer Formula is: ((7* AYPA) – (11* Int.%)) +105] * 0.8

 

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Passing Yards minus Yards After Catch. 

This statistic is available at advancednflstats.com

This Week’s NFL PiRate Ratings

 

 

NFC East

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T PPG Opp
Philadelphia Eagles 105.0 103.2 104.9 4-2-0 28.2 20.0
Dallas Cowboys 103.1 101.1 99.9 1-4-0 20.4 22.2
New York Giants 102.8 102.9 103.2 4-2-0 22.3 19.7
Washington Redskins 98.6 100.1 98.2 3-3-0 18.8 19.8
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota Vikings 103.1 102.0 100.7 2-3-0 17.4 17.6
Green Bay Packers 102.4 102.6 100.7 3-3-0 23.2 18.7
Chicago Bears 98.9 100.1 99.5 4-2-0 18.7 16.2
Detroit Lions 96.5 98.6 93.9 1-5-0 24.3 23.3
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans Saints 104.6 102.4 104.1 4-2-0 21.7 18.0
Atlanta Falcons 103.6 103.6 102.3 4-2-0 21.7 16.8
Carolina Panthers 97.1 92.2 89.8 0-5-0 10.4 22.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 92.6 95.4 96.7 3-2-0 16.0 22.2
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Seattle Seahawks 97.4 97.3 98.6 3-2-0 19.6 19.4
San Francisco 49ers 97.1 95.6 95.8 1-5-0 16.3 23.2
St. Louis Rams 94.6 95.2 97.1 3-3-0 17.2 18.8
Arizona Cardinals 94.0 96.9 97.3 3-2-0 17.6 27.6
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New York Jets 110.4 108.1 109.4 5-1-0 26.5 16.8
New England Patriots 106.4 106.1 107.0 4-1-0 30.8 23.2
Miami Dolphins 101.4 99.4 101.7 3-2-0 17.8 22.4
Buffalo Bills 91.6 90.5 88.9 0-5-0 17.4 32.6
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore Ravens 106.5 106.0 107.6 4-2-0 18.7 15.8
Pittsburgh Steelers 105.4 107.9 106.6 4-1-0 22.8 12.0
Cincinnati Bengals 100.5 99.0 99.0 2-3-0 20.0 20.4
Cleveland Browns 95.2 95.8 94.9 1-5-0 14.7 20.8
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis Colts 105.1 105.5 105.4 4-2-0 27.2 20.8
Tennessee Titans 103.2 107.0 105.3 4-2-0 27.0 16.3
Houston Texans 100.3 98.7 102.5 4-2-0 25.5 27.8
Jacksonville Jaguars 92.5 93.9 97.6 3-3-0 18.3 27.8
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego Chargers 99.9 99.6 100.2 2-4-0 26.2 21.0
Kansas City Chiefs 99.6 99.6 100.7 3-2-0 21.6 18.4
Denver Broncos 97.6 99.6 97.3 2-4-0 20.7 23.3
Oakland Raiders 93.4 94.1 93.0 2-4-0 20.0 25.2

This Week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Spreads 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 7: October 24-25, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 3:30 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Pittsburgh MIAMI 2.0 6.5 2.9 3    40 ½
ATLANTA Cincinnati 6.1 7.6 6.3 3 1/2 43   
KANSAS CITY Jacksonville 10.1 8.7 6.1 4 1/2 43   
TENNESSEE Philadelphia 1.2 6.8 3.4 3    44   
CHICAGO Washington 3.3 3.0 4.3 3    40   
NEW ORLEANS Cleveland 12.4 9.6 6.2 13    43   
BALTIMORE Buffalo 17.9 18.5 21.7 13    38   
CAROLINA San Francisco 2.0 -1.4 -4.0 -3    35   
TAMPA BAY St. Louis 0.0 2.2 1.6 3    38 ½
SEATTLE Arizona 5.4 2.4 3.3 5 1/2 40 ½
New England SAN DIEGO 2.5 2.5 2.8 -3    47   
DENVER Oakland 7.2 8.5 7.3 7    42 ½
GREEN BAY Minnesota 2.3 2.6 3.0 2 1/2 44 ½
DALLAS New York Giants 2.3 0.2 -1.3 3 1/2 44 ½



October 12, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 6–October 17-18, 2010

Parity USA

 

For the first time since 1970, no NFL team won its first four games.  Let’s take a brief look at that season 40 years ago. 

 

It was the first season that the old AFL and the NFL were fully merged.  Baltimore (then the Colts), Pittsburgh, and Cleveland joined the new AFC, leaving 13 teams in each conference.

 

The divisional races were exciting with many unexpected turns.  In the AFC Central, the Cincinnati Bengals began the year losing six of their first seven games.  It appeared that Coach Paul Brown had lost the touch that had made him so successful with Cleveland.  The Bengals were in last place, three games behind their older in-state rival and given up for dead.  Just when it appeared like they would be in the hunt for the first pick in the next NFL Draft, a pick that would most assuredly be Jim Plunkett, the Bengals’ defense caught fire.  After giving up more than 25 points per game in the first half of the season, they gave up just 11 in the second half.  Seven consecutive wins later, Cincinnati had passed Houston, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland to win the AFC Central with an 8-6-0 record.

 

In the AFC West, the Oakland Raiders came down to Earth after a three-year run which saw go 37-4-1.  Quarterback Daryle Lamonica was beginning to show signs of aging, so what did Coach John Madden do?  He inserted an even older quarterback into the lineup.  George Blanda won five comeback five games with his passing and kicking to propel Oakland from a 3-2-2 start to an 8-4-2 finish, passing Denver and Kansas City in the standings.

 

In the AFC East, John Unitas was beginning to show his age, but he had enough left in the tank to combine with a really good Colts’ defense to lead Baltimore to the best record in the conference.  Upstart Miami, with first year coach Don Shula enjoyed its first winning season, finishing 10-4 and earning the wildcard.

 

The NFC had its share of wild races.  In the East, the St. Louis Cardinals looked unbeatable when they shut out the Dallas Cowboys 38-0 on Monday Night Football.  The blowout moved the Cardinals to 7-2 and dropped the Cowboys to 5-4, a game behind the New York Giants at 6-3. 

 

The Giants led a host of teams vying for the wildcard berth.  Los Angeles stood one half game back at 5-3-1, while Detroit and Green Bay joined Dallas at 5-4.  The Lions would have been 6-3, but a 63-yard field goal by Tom Dempsey of the lowly Saints did them in.

 

What happened in the final five weeks?  St. Louis fell apart following the win over Dallas.  They tied Kansas City and beat the weak Philadelphia Eagles to move to 8-2-1 and looked to be in control.  But, that was their last win of the season.  At 8-5-1, they missed the playoffs altogether.

 

The Giants moved into first in the division by defeating the Cardinals in week 13 34-17, and at 9-4, they needed a win in the finale to secure the division title.  They never threatened in losing to the Rams by four touchdowns.

 

The Cowboys caught fire after the pasting in prime time.  They won five in a row to win the division on the final weekend.

 

The Minnesota Vikings rode the best defense in the league to a second consecutive 12-2-0 finish.  The San Francisco 49ers had the NFL’s top offense with quarterback John Brodie having an All-Pro season.  They made the playoffs for the first time in 13 seasons (in 1957, they were in a playoff for the division title and lost to Detroit).

 

As for the wildcard berth, the Packers forgot how to score and fell out of the race, going on to lose four of their final five.  The Rams and Lions began to pull away from the rest, and the two faced off in week 13 on Monday Night Football at the Coliseum in Los Angeles.  The Lions won an exciting game to move a half game in front of the Rams at 9-4.  They clinched the spot the following week with a 20-0 win over Green Bay.

 

You can see a lot of possible similarities in this year’s races.  Could the San Francisco 49ers still catch fire and be this year’s version of the Bengals?  The NFC West is weak enough so that 8-8 could win the division.  Might Mike Singletary be able to coax the Prospectors to a 8-3 finish?

 

Dallas could be the team that comes from off the pace to win the division.  The Giants, Eagles, and Redskins are all capable of losing two or three in a row.

 

What about the Vikings?  Is Brett Favre going to rebound?  Can the Bears be the surprise team in the North and win the division much like the 49ers emerged in 1970.  What about the Chiefs?  Are they going to be like San Francisco was and win the division title in a big surprise?  Might they earn a wildcard like the upstart 1970 Dolphins, or will they be like the Cardinals and collapse in the second half?

 

It will be interesting in this season of parity.  Expect to see about 10 teams competing for three or four playoff spots in the final couple of weeks.

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
 
NFC East
PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T PPG Opp
Dallas 104.2 102.2 102.3 1-3-0 20.3 27.8
Philadelphia 102.0 100.5 100.3 3-2-0 24.4 20.6
New York Giants 100.7 99.0 99.1 3-2-0 21.2 19.6
Washington 98.1 99.4 97.5 3-2-0 17.8 18.4
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 104.2 104.3 104.5 3-2-0 23.8 17.8
Minnesota 103.3 101.7 102.0 1-3-0 15.8 16.8
Chicago 100.9 99.7 101.1 4-1-0 18.4 14.8
Detroit 94.3 94.0 95.7 1-4-0 25.2 22.4
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Atlanta 105.7 104.5 105.4 4-1-0 22.6 14.0
New Orleans 103.3 103.0 103.4 3-2-0 19.4 20.4
Carolina 97.9 94.9 95.9 0-5-0 10.4 22.0
Tampa Bay 94.3 97.6 97.6 3-1-0 14.8 16.0
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 97.2 94.6 92.8 0-5-0 15.2 26.0
Seattle 94.5 95.7 95.4 2-2-0 18.8 19.3
St. Louis 94.0 96.5 97.3 2-3-0 16.6 19.2
Arizona 92.5 94.3 94.2 3-2-0 17.6 27.6
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 111.1 108.2 109.0 4-1-0 27.0 16.2
New England 106.6 106.1 106.5 3-1-0 32.8 24.0
Miami 100.1 98.6 101.3 2-2-0 16.5 23.0
Buffalo 92.6 93.7 93.4 0-5-0 17.4 32.6
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 106.1 105.6 106.3 4-1-0 18.4 14.4
Pittsburgh 103.7 107.0 105.5 3-1-0 21.5 12.5
Cincinnati 101.6 100.8 100.9 2-3-0 20.0 20.4
Cleveland 97.4 97.3 96.3 1-4-0 15.6 19.4
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 104.9 104.4 103.4 3-2-0 27.2 20.2
Houston 101.9 101.5 103.5 3-2-0 23.6 27.2
Tennessee 99.4 102.3 99.5 3-2-0 26.4 19.0
Jacksonville 94.1 95.0 95.2 3-2-0 21.4 27.4
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 103.8 103.5 103.0 2-3-0 28.0 21.2
Kansas City 100.5 101.8 100.9 3-1-0 19.3 14.3
Denver 97.0 99.1 97.8 2-3-0 20.8 23.2
Oakland 92.4 93.0 92.7 2-3-0 22.2 26.8
This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 6: October 17-18, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 2:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
San Diego ST. LOUIS 8.5 4.1 6.2 8 1/2 45   
HOUSTON Kansas City 1.3 -0.6 1.3 4 1/2 44   
NEW ENGLAND Baltimore 4.3 3.3 2.7 3    44 1/2
New Orleans  

TAMPA BAY
4.4 -2.6 1.8 5    44   
Atlanta PHILADELPHIA 1.8 2.5 1.4 NL NL
NEW YORK GIANTS Detroit 9.7 6.2 10.4 10    44 1/2
CHICAGO Seattle 10.2 10.0 10.0 7    40   
GREEN BAY Miami 6.6 10.1 5.1 NL NL
PITTSBURGH Cleveland 8.8 12.7 11.5 13 1/2 37   
New York Jets DENVER 11.4 5.8 7.6 3    40 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO Oakland 7.1 3.1 3.3 6 1/2 41   
MINNESOTA Dallas 4.2 4.6 4.2 1 1/2 43 1/2
Indianapolis WASHINGTON 3.5 2.5 2.4 3 1/2 43 1/2
Tennessee JACKSONVILLE 2.5 6.3 0.6 3    44 1/2

October 5, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 5–October 10-11, 2010

Four weeks into the NFL season gives us enough time to begin to make assumptions.  There just may not be a great team in the league this year.  The Kansas City Chiefs are the only undefeated team left, and it is a good bet they will not be so after this week.

We have a lot of mediocre teams and a handful of good but not great teams.  Scoring is down this year.  That gives the odds makers quite a dilemma.  The underdog is covering more than ever this year.  The lines will be shorter, and this will create many instances where sweetheart teaser plays become more advantageous.

If a team that should be a five-point favorite all of a sudden becomes a two and a half-point favorite, then playing a 10-point teaser to make them a seven and a half-point underdog becomes truly sweet and playing a 13-point teaser to make them a 10 ½-point underdog becomes money in the bank.

The PiRates are having a great time playing these NFL sweetheart teasers so far this year.  In fact, we may have to consider not playing any college games and picking just NFL games, at least as long as this hot streak continues.

We have also fattened up on money line parlays that take advantage of the fact that favorites are still winning but not covering.  The lower the regular spread, the lower the money line odds. 

                                                PiRate QB Passer Ratings                                       

 

Player Team AYPA INT% PiRate #
Michael Vick PHI 6.7 0.00 121.5
Peyton Manning IND 7.4 0.58 120.3
Mark Sanchez NYJ 6.1 0.00 118.2
Tony Romo DAL 6.6 1.56 107.2
Kyle Orton DEN 6.6 1.71 105.9
Donovan McNabb WAS 6.5 1.65 105.9
Tom Brady NE 6.3 1.64 104.9
Drew Brees NO 6.2 1.79 103.0
Phillip Rivers SD 7.3 2.84 99.9
Seneca Wallace CLE 5.4 1.82 98.2
Matt Ryan ATL 5.1 2.01 94.8
Aaron Rodgers GB 5.6 2.86 90.2
Jay Cutler CHI 5.7 2.94 90.0
Josh Freeman TB 4.8 2.41 89.7
Matt Shcaub HOU 5.6 3.08 88.3
Carson Palmer CIN 4.4 2.46 87.0
Chad Henne MIA 5.2 3.03 86.5
Vince Young TEN 4.8 2.82 86.1
Kevin Kolb PHI 3.3 2.22 82.9
Dennis Dixon PIT 4.5 3.13 81.7
Matt Cassel KC 4.4 3.90 74.4
Bruce Gradkowski OAK 4.5 4.21 72.1
Eli Manning NYG 4.8 4.55 70.9
Sam Bradford STL 3.6 3.80 70.7
Joe Flacco BAL 3.8 4.63 64.5
Jimmy Clausen CAR 3.0 4.17 64.1
Shaun Hill DET 3.7 4.67 63.6
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 3.7 4.76 62.8
Alex Smith SF 3.5 4.64 62.8
Jason Campbell OAK 2.2 3.85 62.5
Derek Anderson ARI 2.8 4.46 60.4
Trent Edwards BUF 1.5 3.85 58.6
Jake Delhomme CLE 3.7 5.41 57.2
David Garrard JAX 3.0 5.21 55.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 5.2 7.14 50.3
Brett Favre MIN 2.8 6.19 45.2
Charlie Batch PIT 3.8 7.14 42.4
Matt Moore CAR 1.2 8.16 18.9
 PiRate Passer Rating Formula: [(AYPA * 7) – (11 * Int%) + 105] * 0.8

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
             
             
 

 

NFC East

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T PPG Opp
Dallas  104.2 102.2 102.3 1-2-0 18.0 17.7
Philadelphia  102.0 100.5 100.3 2-2-0 23.8 19.8
New York Giants 100.7 99.0 99.1 2-2-0 18.0 22.0
Washington  98.1 99.4 97.5 2-2-0 18.3 19.8
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay  104.2 104.3 104.5 3-1-0 26.5 18.3
Minnesota  103.3 101.7 102.0 1-2-0 14.3 12.7
Chicago 100.9 99.7 101.1 3-1-0 17.3 17.0
Detroit 94.3 94.0 95.7 0-4-0 20.5 26.5
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Atlanta 105.7 104.5 105.4 3-1-0 23.3 15.0
New Orleans 103.3 103.0 103.4 3-1-0 19.8 18.0
Carolina 97.9 94.9 95.9 0-4-0 11.5 21.8
Tampa Bay 94.3 97.6 97.6 2-1-0 16.7 19.7
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 97.2 94.6 92.8 0-4-0 13.0 25.8
Seattle 94.5 95.7 95.4 2-2-0 18.8 19.3
St. Louis 94.0 96.5 97.3 2-2-0 19.3 13.0
Arizona 92.5 94.3 94.2 2-2-0 14.5 29.5
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 111.1 108.2 109.0 3-1-0 26.5 15.3
New England 106.6 106.1 106.5 3-1-0 32.8 24.0
Miami 100.1 98.6 101.3 2-2-0 16.5 23.0
Buffalo 92.6 93.7 93.4 0-4-0 15.3 31.3
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 106.1 105.6 106.3 3-1-0 15.3 13.8
Pittsburgh 103.7 107.0 105.5 3-1-0 21.5 12.5
Cincinnati 101.6 100.8 100.9 2-2-0 19.8 19.5
Cleveland 97.4 97.3 96.3 1-3-0 17.0 19.3
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 104.9 104.4 103.4 2-2-0 29.3 23.0
Houston 101.9 101.5 103.5 3-1-0 27.0 25.5
Tennessee 99.4 102.3 99.5 2-2-0 24.5 17.0
Jacksonville 94.1 95.0 95.2 2-2-0 17.8 27.8
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 103.8 103.5 103.0 2-2-0 28.3 17.8
Kansas City 100.5 101.8 100.9 3-0-0 22.7 10.3
Denver 97.0 99.1 97.8 2-2-0 21.8 21.3
Oakland 92.4 93.0 92.7 1-3-0 19.0 26.8

 

This Week’s Games                                                                

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site                                                       

                                                                       

Week 5: October 10-11, 2010                                                            

Vegas Line as of 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday                                                                

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 5: October 10-11, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
BALTIMORE Denver 12.1 9.5 11.5 7    38 1/2
BUFFALO Jacksonville 1.5 1.7 1.2 Pk 41   
INDIANAPOLIS Kansas City 7.4 5.6 5.5 8    44 1/2
 

DETROIT
St. Louis 3.3 0.5 1.4 3    42 1/2
Atlanta CLEVELAND 5.3 4.2 6.1 3    40 1/2
CINCINNATI Tampa Bay 9.3 5.2 5.3 6 1/2 38   
Chicago CAROLINA 0.0 1.8 2.2 2 1/2 35 1/2
Green Bay WASHINGTON 3.1 1.9 4.0 2 1/2 44   
HOUSTON New York Giants 3.2 4.5 6.4 3    47 1/2
New Orleans ARIZONA 8.8 6.7 7.2 6 1/2 45 1/2
San Diego OAKLAND 9.4 8.5 8.3 6    45   
DALLAS Tennessee 7.8 2.9 5.8 6 1/2 41 1/2
Philadelphia SAN FRANCISCO 0.8 1.9 3.5 -3    38   
NEW YORK JETS Minnesota 9.8 8.5 9.0 4    38 1/2

September 28, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 4–October 3-4, 2010

Week 3 PiRate Passer Ratings *

Player Team AYPA Int % PiRate #
Peyton Manning IND  7.7 0.00 127.1
Michael Vick PHI 6.7 0.00 121.5
Mark Sanchez NYJ 6.1 0.00 118.2
Donovan McNabb WAS 7.0 0.98 114.6
Kyle Orton DEN 7.4 1.60 111.4
Matt Ryan ATL 5.7 0.94 107.6
Tony Romo DAL 6.6 1.56 107.2
Chad Henne MIA 5.8 1.08 107.0
Jay Cutler CHI 7.5 2.20 106.7
Drew Brees NO 6.2 1.79 103.0
Tom Brady NE 6.5 2.04 102.4
 

Seneca Wallace

CLE 5.4 1.82 98.2
Phillip Rivers SD 6.7 3.31 92.4
Aaron Rodgers GB 5.6 2.86 90.2
Josh Freeman TB 4.8 2.41 89.7
Carson Palmer CIN 4.4 2.46 87.0
Dennis Dixon PIT 4.5 3.13 81.7
Brad Gradkowski OAK 5.1 3.57 81.1
 

Matt Schaub

HOU 5.4 3.96 79.4
Derek Anderson ARI 3.7 3.06 77.8
Matt Cassel KC 4.4 3.90 74.4
Kerry Collins TEN 3.7 4.00 69.5
Alex Smith SF 3.7 4.20 67.7
Vince Young TEN 4.3 4.65 67.1
Joe Flacco BAL 3.8 4.63 64.5
Jimmy Clausen CAR 3.0 4.17 64.1
Sam Bradford STL 3.1 4.27 63.8
Shaun Hill DET 3.7 4.67 63.6
Jason Campbell OAK 2.2 3.85 62.5
 

Trent Edwards

BUF 1.5 3.85 58.6
Eli Manning NYG 4.5 5.88 57.4
Jake Delhomme CLE 3.7 5.41 57.2
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 3.9 5.56 57.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 5.2 7.14 50.3
Brett Favre MIN 2.8 6.19 45.2
Charlie Batch PIT 3.8 7.14 42.4
 

David Garrard

JAX 1.8 6.76 34.6
Matt Moore CAR 1.2 8.16 18.9

 

* PiRate Passer Rating Formula: [(AYPA * 7) – (11 * Int%) + 105] * 0.8

Where AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (passing yards minus yards after catch)

AYPA is available at advancednflstats.com

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
             
             
 

NFC East

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T PPG Opp
Dallas  104.2 102.4 103.6 1-2-0 18.0 17.7
Philadelphia  103.3 103.1 103.6 2-1-0 27.7 20.7
New York Giants 98.8 94.8 97.4 1-2-0 18.3 28.3
Washington 96.8 99.4 95.6 1-2-0 18.7 22.3
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 105.8 106.6 107.8 2-1-0 26.0 15.7
Minnesota 103.3 102.5 102.3 1-2-0 14.3 12.7
Chicago 102.3 102.0 104.4 3-0-0 22.0 17.0
Detroit 92.7 95.1 92.7 0-3-0 18.7 26.0
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Atlanta 106.3 108.9 107.7 2-1-0 25.7 15.3
New Orleans 104.5 104.8 106.0 2-1-0 21.0 19.3
Carolina 96.7 90.7 91.4 0-3-0 10.7 23.7
Tampa Bay 94.3 94.8 97.1 2-1-0 16.7 19.7
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 96.4 93.2 95.4 0-3-0 10.3 29.0
Arizona 95.6 97.5 97.9 2-1-0 16.0 25.7
Seattle 95.5 99.3 100.1 2-1-0 24.0 19.0
St. Louis 92.5 96.2 94.7 1-2-0 19.0 16.3
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 108.6 104.4 106.7 2-1-0 22.7 15.7
New England 104.6 100.4 104.5 2-1-0 30.0 27.3
Miami 102.1 101.6 101.2 2-1-0 17.3 17.0
Buffalo 95.6 94.0 91.2 0-3-0 15.7 29.0
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 104.8 101.9 103.7 2-1-0 14.7 13.7
Pittsburgh 104.5 107.7 107.7 3-0-0 24.0 11.0
Cincinnati 102.3 98.1 102.4 2-1-0 19.7 18.3
Cleveland 96.7 95.7 94.8 0-3-0 15.0 19.0
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 105.9 109.7 107.8 2-1-0 29.7 20.3
Houston 101.7 103.8 103.4 2-1-0 25.7 26.0
Tennessee 101.1 102.6 102.5 2-1-0 26.0 14.0
Jacksonville 93.1 93.4 91.2 1-2-0 13.3 27.7
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 101.2 101.6 99.9 1-2-0 24.0 20.3
Kansas City 100.5 100.4 99.5 3-0-0 22.7 10.3
Denver 95.8 100.6 96.8 1-2-0 20.3 21.7
Oakland 92.6 92.3 89.1 1-2-0 17.3 25.3

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 4: October 3-4, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
TENNESSEE Denver 8.3 5.0 8.7 6 1/2 41 1/2
PITTSBURGH Baltimore 2.7 8.8 7.0 1 1/2 34 1/2
Cincinnati CLEVELAND 3.6 0.4 5.6 3    37 1/2
GREEN BAY Detroit 16.1 14.5 18.1 14 1/2 45 1/2
NEW ORLEANS Carolina 10.8 17.1 17.6 13    44   
ATLANTA San Francisco 12.9 18.7 15.3 7    42   
Seattle ST. LOUIS 1.0 1.1 3.4 Pk 38 1/2
New York Jets BUFFALO 10.0 7.4 12.5 5    37   
Indianapolis JACKSONVILLE 9.8 13.3 13.6 7 1/2 46 1/2
Houston OAKLAND 7.1 9.5 12.3 3    43 1/2
SAN DIEGO Arizona 7.6 6.1 4.0 8    46   
PHILADELPHIA Washington 9.5 6.7 11.0 6    42 1/2
Chicago NEW YORK GIANTS 0.5 4.2 4.0 -4    44   
New England MIAMI 0.5 -3.2 1.3 Pk 45 1/2

September 21, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 3–September 26-27, 2010

Two weeks into the NFL season brings very few surprises.  Tampa Bay and Kansas City are 2-0, while Dallas and Minnesota are 0-2.  Overall, defenses are ahead of offenses on the whole, and it looks like very few teams will top 400 points this season.  The 3-4 defense with the zone blitz has stymied many quarterbacks, and we are seeing more 14-10 type games.  

We’ve noticed that punt returns are a dying art.  Punters are getting adequate hang time; more punts are being made that are not returnable, and players like Devin Hester are not getting the opportunity to return punts.

As we mentioned in the college ratings, our 10 and 13-point sweetheart teaser plays have been like gold to us so far.  If the scores continue to be lower than normal, these should continue to pay dividends for us.  Go to www.piratings.webs.com to purchase this week’s picks.  Deadline is 7 PM Eastern Time Wednesdays.  All purchases made after the deadline will be applied to the next week’s games.

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
             
             

NFC East 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T PPG Opp
Dallas  102.4 100.2 99.4 0-2-0 13.5 20.0
Philadelphia  100.8 100.5 102.2 1-1-0 27.5 29.5
New York Giants 100.0 99.8 100.1 1-1-0 22.5 28.0
Washington 99.4 99.9 101.8 1-1-0 20.0 18.5
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 106.6 107.7 108.4 2-0-0 30.5 13.5
Minnesota 103.5 103.2 102.7 0-2-0 9.5 14.0
Chicago 101.5 99.8 103.4 2-0-0 23.0 17.0
Detroit 92.5 92.4 92.9 0-2-0 23.0 27.0
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Atlanta 106.0 104.9 105.3 1-1-0 25.0 11.0
New Orleans 104.8 106.3 106.5 2-0-0 19.5 15.5
Carolina 98.3 97.1 96.2 0-2-0 12.5 25.5
Tampa Bay 96.5 99.7 100.6 2-0-0 18.5 10.5
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 99.2 96.6 98.7 0-2-0 14.0 28.0
Arizona 96.2 95.6 96.1 1-1-0 12.0 27.0
Seattle 94.2 96.3 99.4 1-1-0 22.5 18.5
St. Louis 89.9 89.8 90.1 0-2-0 13.5 16.5
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 107.9 105.1 105.1 1-1-0 18.5 12.0
New England 105.0 102.9 102.9 1-1-0 26.0 26.0
Miami 102.8 102.6 101.8 2-0-0 14.5 10.0
Buffalo 95.2 94.5 91.5 0-2-0 8.5 24.5
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 105.3 103.7 103.7 1-1-0 10.0 12.0
Pittsburgh 102.3 105.0 105.2 2-0-0 17.0 10.0
Cincinnati 100.7 99.8 99.6 1-1-0 19.5 24.0
Cleveland 96.2 94.9 95.3 0-2-0 14.0 16.5
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 104.7 106.1 106.5 1-1-0 31.0 24.0
Houston 103.5 104.7 104.2 2-0-0 32.0 25.5
Tennessee 99.9 101.4 98.6 1-1-0 24.5 16.0
Jacksonville 95.6 96.3 94.3 1-1-0 18.5 27.5
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 102.5 104.4 100.3 1-1-0 26.0 17.0
Kansas City 97.7 99.1 98.9 2-0-0 18.5 14.0
Denver 97.0 98.3 96.8 1-1-0 24.0 19.0
Oakland 92.0 91.8 91.5 1-1-0 14.5 26.0

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site        
             
Week 3: September 26-27, 2010          
Vegas Line as of 10:30 PM EDT Tuesday          
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
NEW YORK GIANTS Tennessee 3.1 1.4 4.5 3    42   
NEW ENGLAND Buffalo 13.8 12.4 15.4 14    42 1/2
BALTIMORE Cleveland 12.1 11.8 11.4 10 1/2 37   
Bitmap

Pittsburgh
TAMPA BAY 7.8 7.3 6.6 2 1/2 33   
CAROLINA Cincinnati 0.6 5.2 3.9 -3    38 1/2
NEW ORLEANS Atlanta 1.8 4.4 4.2 4    49 1/2
KANSAS CITY San Francisco 0.5 4.5 2.2 -3    36 1/2
MINNESOTA Detroit 15.0 14.8 13.8 11    42 1/2
HOUSTON Dallas 3.1 6.5 6.8 3    47 1/2
Washington ST. LOUIS 7.5 8.1 9.7 3 1/2 38   
Philadelphia JACKSONVILLE 2.2 1.2 4.9 3    44 1/2
Indianapolis DENVER 4.7 4.8 6.7 5 1/2 48   
San Diego SEATTLE 6.3 6.1 -1.1 5 1/2 44   
ARIZONA Oakland 6.2 5.8 6.6 4    39   
New York Jets MIAMI 3.1 0.5 1.3 -2 1/2 34 1/2
Green Bay CHICAGO 2.1 4.9 2.0 3    46   

September 14, 2010

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 2–September 19-20, 2010

18.3!  That is the average number of points scored per team in the opening week of the 2010 NFL season.  That is a little more than a field goal less per team compared to last year.  Is this a sign that scoring is about to become harder in the league, or is it more of a case of so many closely-matched contests in week one?  We will have to wait a couple of weeks before we can begin to make an assumption.

Week two finds a handful of interesting games on the slate.  The Jets hook up with the Pats, and it is almost a must-win game for Coach Rex Ryan and his crew.  After losing Monday night at home to Baltimore, a loss would to New England would give Team Belichick a two-game edge in the AFC East.

Indianapolis hosts the Giants in a battle of Manning vs. Manning.  The Colts could not stop the Houston running game, and the Texans are not a rushing behemoth.  If Eli and company get the best of Peyton and company, the Colts could be two games behind the rest of the division.

Kansas City visits Cleveland, and if the Chiefs can pull off the road win over a weak Browns’ team, they will become a legitimate threat in the AFC West.  The Chiefs get Cleveland and Buffalo as part of finishing fourth in the division last year, while the Chargers must play New England and Cincinnati. 

Dallas hosts Chicago, and the Cowboys must rebound or else they could find themselves in a hole they cannot crawl out of.  Jerry Jones might even begin to consider his options if the Cowboys lay another egg offensively this week.  The mental anguish of having the winning touchdown called back could do to Dallas what Virginia Tech’s loss to Boise State did to the Hokies.  Additionally, Chicago benefitted from a final play penalty to beat Detroit, and the Bears could get a positive bounce from that event.

The Saints and Vikings got an extra three days to prepare for their second games.  Minnesota hosts Miami.  The Dolphins struggled to beat the hapless Bills, and the Vikes are much better at home than they are on the road.  After the opening touchdown drive, Minnesota’s defense shut down Drew Brees.

The Saints fly into a hornet’s nest in San Francisco.  Mike Singletary will have the 49ers hopping mad after the embarrassing loss at Seattle.

                Week One PiRate Passer Ratings *                                

Player Team PiRate #
David Garrard JAX 126.0
VinceYoung TEN 125.4
Tom Brady N-E 125.4
Peyton Manning IND 123.8
Phil Rivers S-D 122.1
Drew Brees N-O 118.7
Derek Anderson ARI 118.7
Michael Vick PHI 118.2
Tony Romo DAL 116.5
Donovan McNabb WAS 111.4
Chad Henne MIA 108.6
Matthew Stafford DET 108.1
Jay Cutler CHI 104.2
Trent Edwards BUF 101.4
Matt Cassel K-C 99.1
Carson Palmer CIN 98.9
Mark Sanchez NYJ 98.6
Kyle Orton DEN 93.2
Matt Ryan ATL 87.5
Joe Flacco BAL 87.2
Dennis Dixon PIT 82.1
Josh Freeman T-B 75.0
Brett Favre MIN 74.9
Jason Campbell OAK 74.8
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 73.7
Alex Smith S-F 59.4
Jake Delhomme CLE 57.2
Matt Schaub HOU 47.9
Shaun Hill DET 47.2
Sam Bradford STL 46.1
Aaron Rodgers G-B 40.1
Eli Manning NYG 18.4
Matt Moore CAR 6.2

 

* PiRate Passer Rating: [((7 x AYPA) – (10 x Int. %)) + 105] x 0.8

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (eliminates Yards After the Catch)

 

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
             
             
Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas 103.6 102.7 101.1 0-1-0 7 13
New York Giants 101.5 102.5 101.9 1-0-0 31 18
Philadelphia 101.0 100.8 99.0 0-1-0 20 27
Washington 99.2 100.6 98.7 1-0-0 13 7
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 104.8 106.7 105.8 1-0-0 27 20
Minnesota 104.6 105.2 105.5 0-1-0 9 14
Chicago 100.3 96.8 99.9 1-0-0 19 14
Detroit 92.3 91.3 92.4 0-1-0 14 19
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 105.4 107.7 107.9 1-0-0 14 9
Atlanta 103.9 102.3 102.9 0-1-0 9 15
Carolina 100.1 100.4 98.2 0-1-0 18 31
Tampa Bay 94.7 96.7 94.6 1-0-0 17 14
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 98.6 95.8 98.2 0-1-0 6 31
Arizona 98.3 98.6 98.7 1-0-0 17 13
Seattle 95.2 98.4 98.0 1-0-0 31 6
St. Louis 90.3 90.7 91.3 0-1-0 13 17
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 106.8 103.2 104.3 0-1-0 9 10
New England 106.1 104.4 107.4 1-0-0 38 24
Miami 101.7 101.3 101.7 1-0-0 15 10
Buffalo 97.0 95.2 95.9 0-1-0 10 15
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 106.1 105.2 106.9 1-0-0 10 9
Pittsburgh 101.7 102.9 102.6 1-0-0 15 9
Cincinnati 99.9 98.9 99.6 0-1-0 24 38
Cleveland 96.9 95.0 94.1 0-1-0 14 17
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Houston 103.7 104.3 103.3 1-0-0 34 24
Indianapolis 103.2 103.9 103.1 0-1-0 24 34
Tennessee 100.5 102.6 102.9 1-0-0 38 13
Jacksonville 96.9 97.8 98.2 1-0-0 24 17
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 101.2 101.8 101.1 0-1-0 14 21
Kansas City 97.0 98.7 97.8 1-0-0 21 14
Denver 96.0 95.8 96.4 0-1-0 17 24
Oakland 91.6 92.0 90.6 0-1-0 13 38
 

 

           
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
Week 2: Sept. 19-20, 2010            
Vegas Line as of:

10:30 PM EDT Tuesday

           
             
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
CLEVELAND Kansas City 2.9 -0.7 -0.7 1    38   
GREEN BAY Buffalo 10.8 14.5 12.9 13    43   
Baltimore CINCINNATI 4.2 4.3 5.3 2 1/2 40   
TENNESSEE Pittsburgh 1.8 2.7 3.3 4 1/2 37   
Philadelphia DETROIT 5.7 6.5 3.6 5    42    
DALLAS Chicago 6.3 8.9 4.2 7 1/2 41   
CAROLINA Tampa Bay 8.4 6.7 6.6 NL NL
ATLANTA Arizona 8.6 6.7 7.2 6 1/2 43   
MINNESOTA Miami 6.9 7.9 7.8 5 1/2 39 1/2
OAKLAND St. Louis 3.3 3.3 1.3 3 1/2 37 1/2
DENVER Seattle 3.8 0.4 1.4 3 1/2 40   
Houston WASHINGTON 1.5 0.7 1.6 3    44   
SAN DIEGO Jacksonville 6.3 6.0 4.9 7 1/2 45 1/2
NEW YORK JETS New England 2.7 0.8 -1.1 -1 1/2 38 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS New York Giants 4.7 4.4 4.2 5 1/2 48   
New Orleans SAN FRANCISCO 2.8 7.9 5.7 4 1/2 44   

September 8, 2010

NFL PiRate Ratings for Week One: September 9-13, 2010

Current Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
           
             
 

NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas  104.5 106.3 106.9 0-0-0 0 0
Philadelphia  101.7 104.1 98.7 0-0-0 0 0
New York Giants 100.0 99.9 102.3 0-0-0 0 0
Washington  98.3 96.1 95.8 0-0-0 0 0
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 104.8 108.0 107.9 0-0-0 0 0
Green Bay 104.1 106.7 105.7 0-0-0 0 0
Chicago 100.5 97.3 98.9 0-0-0 0 0
Detroit 92.1 88.1 89.4 0-0-0 0 0
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 105.2 109.8 106.6 0-0-0 0 0
Atlanta 104.7 103.5 104.6 0-0-0 0 0
Carolina 101.6 103.6 100.4 0-0-0 0 0
Tampa Bay 94.3 94.5 92.3 0-0-0 0 0
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 101.6 100.8 102.2 0-0-0 0 0
Arizona 98.5 100.3 99.1 0-0-0 0 0
Seattle 92.2 91.1 94.8 0-0-0 0 0
St. Louis 90.1 85.9 87.3 0-0-0 0 0
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 107.3 106.3 106.2 0-0-0 0 0
New England 105.7 106.5 105.4 0-0-0 0 0
Miami 101.1 100.4 100.8 0-0-0 0 0
Buffalo 97.6 97.4 95.9 0-0-0 0 0
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 105.6 106.3 106.5 0-0-0 0 0
Pittsburgh 100.9 102.2 101.8 0-0-0 0 0
Cincinnati 100.3 100.0 99.4 0-0-0 0 0
Cleveland 97.3 93.2 93.2 0-0-0 0 0
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 104.9 106.8 107.1 0-0-0 0 0
Houston 102.0 101.9 101.9 0-0-0 0 0
Tennessee 97.9 99.3 101.2 0-0-0 0 0
Jacksonville 96.3 94.8 97.0 0-0-0 0 0
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 102.5 106.0 104.6 0-0-0 0 0
Denver 96.6 99.3 98.5 0-0-0 0 0
Kansas City 95.7 92.3 94.5 0-0-0 0 0
Oakland 94.2 91.4 92.8 0-0-0 0 0

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
Vegas Line as of:

11:30 AM EDT Wednesday

           
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
NEW ORLEANS Minnesota 3.4 4.8 1.7 5    48 1/2
Miami BUFFALO 0.5 0.0 2.0 3    38 1/2
TENNESSEE Oakland 6.7 10.9 11.3 6 1/2 40 1/2
NEW ENGLAND Cincinnati 9.4 10.5 10.0 4 1/2 45   
NEW YORK GIANTS Carolina 1.4 -0.7 4.9 7    41   
Atlanta PITTSBURGH 1.8 -0.7 0.8 2    37 1/2
Cleveland TAMPA BAY 1.0 -3.3 -1.0 3    37   
JACKSONVILLE Denver 2.7 -1.5 1.5 3    40   
Indianapolis HOUSTON 0.9 2.9 3.2 2    47   
CHICAGO Detroit 13.4 12.2 12.5 6 1/2 43 1/2
San Francisco SEATTLE 7.4 7.7 5.4 3    37   
Green Bay PHILADELPHIA 0.4 0.6 5.0 3    47 1/2
Arizona ST. LOUIS 6.4 12.4 9.8 4    39 1/2
Dallas WASHINGTON 3.2 7.2 8.1 3 1/2 40   
NEW YORK JETS Baltimore 3.7 2.0 2.3 2 1/2 35 1/2
San Diego KANSAS CITY 4.8 11.7 8.1 4 1/2 45   

August 26, 2010

2010 PiRate Ratings NFL Preseason Ratings & Predictions

PiRate Ratings 2010 NFL Preseason Ratings & Predictions

 

Go to www.piratings.webs.com where we were 60.6% against the spread in 2009!

 

The 2010 edition of the NFL PiRate Ratings makes its debut today, and we have tweaked the ratings just a bit this season.  Every year, we evaluate every team’s ability to run the ball, pass the ball, defend the run, defend the pass, and all the special teams play.

 

Breaking down the run, we look at the offensive blocking for the run, the ability of the team to run up the gut and pick up two yards on 3rd & two, the ability to get outside and pick up a lot of yards, and so forth.  To us, it is more important to know the situation of each running play rather than the raw average.  If a team has a 1st & Ten at its own 20 yard line and runs the ball five consecutive times for eight, ten, four, two, and two yards, that team has averaged 5.2 yards per rush, but that team must now punt on 4th & two at their 46 yard line.

 

If that same team starts at its 20 yard line and runs the ball five consecutive times for four yards on every play, that team has averaged just four yards per rush, but they now have a 3rd & two—a much better proposition than 4th & two.

 

We break down the pass in a similar way.  We look at pass protection, passer ability, and pass receiving ability.  Passing percentage matters very little (virtually nothing).  Yardage gained and maintaining possession of the ball are all that matters.    

 

Of course, for every offensive action, there is a corresponding defensive action that we rate.  This year, we have given a little more weight to pass rush over pass coverage.  Sacks and hurries are becoming more influential in today’s short passing game offenses.  If you look at a typical game today, 80% of the passes thrown in the NFL are thrown to receivers/backs less than 10 yards pass the line of scrimmage.  The three and five-step drop have displaced the seven-step drop and longer passes.  Most longer passes today are of the play-action variety.  Of course, the 3rd & 20 situation still leads to the longer pass plays. 

 

With so many shorter passing routes against two-deep coverage, the pass rush deserves a little more weight at the expense of the pass coverage.  We are not talking about a major shift; this is more like a fraction of points, or what we call moving the minute hand on our watch by a minute to synchronize it with Coordinated Universal Time.

 

For those of you who are new to the PiRate Ratings, these ratings are only good for the current week’s games.  Since the season actually does not begin for a couple weeks, we may tweak them in the next 10-12 days once all cuts and late free-agent pickups are made. 

 

Additionally, we advise you not to use our raw ratings to pick games.  We offer picks against the spread at our sister site, www.piratings.webs.com, and we NEVER use the raw ratings.  If every scheduled game was played 100 times, then the ratings would be quite accurate.  We look at several variables and intangibles in addition to the pointspread to analyze each game and try to find a favorable angle that “gives” us an extra point or two.

 

You will see three ratings for each team: The PiRate, The Mean, and The Bias Rating.  Each rating is based on 100 being level par.  If a team has a rating of 103.7, then consider that team 3.7 points better than average. 

 

The PiRate is the raw score we give each team based on all the variables we discussed above (running, passing, etc.).  The Mean Rating is a separate rating of 12 variables that we have used since 1979.  It is purely statistical based on many of the same variables used for the PiRate Rating.  We take the exact average of those 12 variables and use a constant and a multiplier to produce a par of 100.  The Bias Rating takes those same 12 variables and gives each rating a different weight in the formula.  All three ratings have been quite accurate through the years. 

 

Here are the preseason ratings for the 32 teams.  Each week, the teams will be ranked by division in order of PiRate Rating.  We do not calculate an average of these three ratings, but you can if you want to. 

Initial Regular Season NFL PiRate Ratings
 

NFC East

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas 104.5 106.3 106.9 0-0-0 0 0
Philadelphia 101.7 104.1 98.7 0-0-0 0 0
New York Giants 100.0 99.9 102.3 0-0-0 0 0
Washington 98.3 96.1 95.8 0-0-0 0 0
             
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 104.8 108.0 107.9 0-0-0 0 0
Green Bay 104.1 106.7 105.7 0-0-0 0 0
Chicago 100.5 97.3 98.9 0-0-0 0 0
Detroit 92.1 88.1 89.4 0-0-0 0 0
             
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 105.2 109.8 106.6 0-0-0 0 0
Atlanta 104.7 103.5 104.6 0-0-0 0 0
Carolina 101.6 103.6 100.4 0-0-0 0 0
Tampa Bay 94.3 94.5 92.3 0-0-0 0 0
             
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Francisco 101.6 100.8 102.2 0-0-0 0 0
Arizona 98.5 100.3 99.1 0-0-0 0 0
Seattle 92.2 91.1 94.8 0-0-0 0 0
St. Louis 90.1 85.9 87.3 0-0-0 0 0
             
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Jets 107.3 106.3 106.2 0-0-0 0 0
New England 105.7 106.5 105.4 0-0-0 0 0
Miami 101.1 100.4 100.8 0-0-0 0 0
Buffalo 97.6 97.4 95.9 0-0-0 0 0
             
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 105.6 106.3 106.5 0-0-0 0 0
Pittsburgh 100.9 102.2 101.8 0-0-0 0 0
Cincinnati 100.3 100.0 99.4 0-0-0 0 0
Cleveland 97.3 93.2 93.2 0-0-0 0 0
             
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 104.9 106.8 107.1 0-0-0 0 0
Houston 102.0 101.9 101.9 0-0-0 0 0
Tennessee 97.9 99.3 101.2 0-0-0 0 0
Jacksonville 96.3 94.8 97.0 0-0-0 0 0
             
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 102.5 106.0 104.6 0-0-0 0 0
Denver 96.6 99.3 98.5 0-0-0 0 0
Kansas City 95.7 92.3 94.5 0-0-0 0 0
Oakland 94.2 91.4 92.8 0-0-0 0 0

 

The following predictions are not based on the above ratings.  Remember, these ratings are not usable to select future games.  They are not even 100% affected by the scores of each week’s games.  For instance, San Diego would be considered a 6.8-point favorite in the PiRate Ratings over Kansas City in a neutral-site game (before intangibles and other variables).  Even if San Diego won 24-17, their PiRate rating would be adjusted based on how they won by a touchdown.  Suppose the Chiefs led 17-10 with five minutes to go in the game and had a 100-yard advantage, and the Chargers blocked two punts and recovered them in the end zone for touchdowns.  Or, what if the Chargers led 24-3 after three quarters but then lost their three linebackers to season-ending injuries?  The ratings would change drastically depending on how this 24-17 score occurred.

These predictions are our own personal opinions on how we think the season will pan out.  Take them for what it is worth.

NFC East W L   AFC East W L  
Dallas 10 6   New England 10 6  
New York 9 7   Miami 10 6  
Philadelphia 7 9   New York 9 7  
Washington 6 10   Buffalo 4 12  
                   
NFC South W L   AFC South W L  
New Orleans 13 3   Indianapolis 12 4  
Atlanta 10 6   Tennessee 9 7  
Carolina 7 9   Houston 8 8  
Tampa Bay 4 12   Jacksonville 5 11  
                   
NFC North W L   AFC North W L  
Green Bay 12 4   Baltimore 13 3  
Chicago 9 7   Pittsburgh 9 7  
Minnesota 9 7   Cincinnati 8 8  
Detroit 5 11   Cleveland 3 13  
                   
NFC West W L   AFC West W L  
San Francisco 9 7   San Diego 10 6  
Arizona 7 9   Oakland 7 9  
Seattle 6 10   Denver 7 9  
St. Louis 3 13   Kansas City 6 10  
                   
Wildcard Playoffs   Wildcard Playoffs  
San Diego over Tennessee   Dallas over Chicago  
Miami over New England   Atlanta over San Francisco  
       
Divisional Playoffs   Divisional Playoffs  
Baltimore over Miami   New Orleans over Atlanta  
San Diego over Indianapolis   Green Bay over Dallas  
       
AFC Championship   NFC Championship  
Baltimore over San Diego   Green Bay over New Orleans  
                   
Super Bowl  
Baltimore over Green Bay  

January 19, 2009

Pro Football Computer Simulation League Conference Championship Games–January 19, 2009

Pro Football Computer Simulation League Playoffs

Conference Championships

 

The third round of the 2009 Pro Football Computer Simulation League Playoffs are in the books.  In this round of coverage, I will reveal the scores of the games, the statistics, and how the scoring happened.  In the Simper Bowl next week, I will actually list the play-by-play.

 

NFC

 

1996 Green Bay Packers    34

1999 St. Louis Rams           27

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1999 Stl

7

6

14

0

 

27

1996 GB

14

3

10

7

 

34

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stl

Stat

GB

 

 

 

 

19

FD

21

 

 

 

 

29-107

Rush-Yds

33-126

 

 

 

 

246

Pass Yds

266

 

 

 

 

19-31-1

Passes

20-31-1

 

 

 

 

2-15

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

5-42.8

Punt

4-44.0

 

 

 

 

2-19

PR

3-46

 

 

 

 

6-52

Pen

7-55

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

0-0

 

 

 

 

62

Play

65

 

 

 

 

338

Tot Yds

385

 

 

 

Stl: Bruce 19 yd. pass from Warner, Wilkins Kick 1st Qtr. 11:48

GB: Levens 3 yd run, Jacke Kick 1st Qtr. 8:58

GB: Levens 4 yd. run, Jacke Kick 1st Qtr. 2:33

Stl: Wilkins 42 yd. FG 2nd Qtr. 9:11

GB: Jacke 46 yd. FG 2nd Qtr. 5:09

Stl: Wilkins 39 yd. FG 2nd Qtr. 0:06

Stl: Holt 31 yd. pass from Warner, Wilkins Kick 3rd Qtr. 12:28

GB: Jacke 48 yd. FG 3rd Qtr. 8:17

GB: Freeman 43 yd. pass from Favre, Jacke Kick 3rd Qtr. 6:13

Stl: Faulk 9 yd. run, Wilkins Kick 3rd Qtr. 2:27

GB: Jackson 12 yd. pass from Favre, Jacke Kick 4th Qtr. 1:19

 

 

1998 Denver Broncos                    31

2007 New England Patriots        21

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Den

3

7

14

7

 

31

2007 NE

14

0

7

0

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Den

Stat

NE

 

 

 

 

22

FD

20

 

 

 

 

29-142

Rush-Yds

27-97

 

 

 

 

235

Pass Yds

283

 

 

 

 

19-30-0

Passes

21-37-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

3-22

 

 

 

 

4-48.8

Punt

5-34.4

 

 

 

 

1-7

PR

3-21

 

 

 

 

4-35

Pen

9-79

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

59

Play

67

 

 

 

 

377

Tot Yds

358

 

 

 

NE: Moss 18 yd. pass from Brady, Gostkowski Kick 1st Qtr. 13:02

NE: Moss 16 yd. pass from Brady, Gostkowski Kick 1st Qtr. 9:12

Den: Elam 50 yd. FG 1st Qtr. 2:56

Den: Davis 22 yd. run, Elam Kick 2nd Qtr. 6:11

NE: Morris 2 yd. run, Gostkowski Kick, 3rd Qtr. 10:00

Den: Sharpe 14 yd. pass from Elway, Elam Kick 3rd Qtr. 6:34

Den: Burns 4 yd. blocked punt return, Elam Kick 3rd Qtr. 1:21

Den: Davis 4 yd. run, Elam Kick 4th Qtr. 9:47

 

Simper Bowl II

 

The 1998 Denver Broncos will face the 1996 Green Bay Packers in Simper Bowl II next week.  Look for the play-by-play action to be posted some time next Monday, January 26, 2009.

 

In Simper Bowl I, the 1967 Oakland Raiders defeated the 1968 Dallas Cowboys to win the inaugural championship in the Pro Football Computer Simulation League.

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