The Pi-Rate Ratings

October 29, 2015

Selections Against The Spread–October 29 – November 2, 2015

Well, the three-week hot streak came crashing to an end last week, as our Money Line picks lost a little bit from our account at the Fantasy Island Vegas Book.

This week, we go back to taking some sides in addition to four Money Line parlays with odds better than even money.  Additionally, we are issuing a parlay that includes an underdog to win outright, greatly increasing the odds to produce a windfall IF it wins.  IF is a big word, because not only must the underdog win outright, but another favorite must also win in order to cash this parlay for a big payout.

As always, remember that we do this strictly for fun and do not actually waste hard-earned money on ridiculously entertaining picks.

 

Selections Against The Spread For October 29 – November 2, 2015

10/29/2015      
Home Visitor Line Our Pick
Rice Louisiana Tech -13 Rice
North Carolina St. Clemson -10 North Carolina St.
Washington St. Stanford -11 Stanford
Texas Tech Oklahoma St. -3 Oklahoma St.
Houston Vanderbilt 12.5 Vanderbilt
Florida Atlantic Florida Int’l -2.5 Florida Int’l
SMU Tulsa -3.5 Tulsa
Minnesota Michigan -14 Minnesota
UCLA Colorado 21.5 Colorado
Kansas City Detroit 5.5 Detroit
New Orleans New York Giants 3 New Orleans

 

Money Line Parlay Selections For October 29 – November 2, 2015

Money Line Parlay 4 Teams at 6-5   $220 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
TCU West Virginia   TCU
Louisville Wake Forest   Louisville
Iowa Maryland   Iowa
Texas Iowa St.   Texas
       
       
Money Line Parlay 2 Teams at 5-2   $360 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
Central Michigan Akron   AKRON
Idaho New Mexico St.   Idaho
       
Money Line Parlay 4 Teams at 7-3   $330 payout on $100
Favorite Underdog   Must Win
New England Miami   New England
Atlanta Tampa Bay   Atlanta
St. Louis San Francisco   St. Louis
Baltimore San Diego   Baltimore

 

October 6, 2015

NFL Preview For Week 5: October 8-12, 2015

Another Seattle Controversy

For the second time in just a few years, a Monday Night Football game has ended in controversy in Seattle.  In the waning minutes of last night’s game between the Seahawks and the Detroit Lions, a Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson pass near the goalline was stopped a foot short of the end zone when Seattle defensive back Kam Chancellor stripped the ball away from Johnson, as he apparently tried to stretch his arm out to get the touchdown.

The ball rolled into the end zone, and Seattle linebacker K.J. Wright was the only person capable of recovering the ball as it slowly rolled toward the back line.  The only problem was that Wright encouraged the ball to leave the playing field by batting it with a gentle but definite push.

As the back judge stared from just a few feet away, the ball left the playing field and resulted in a touchback, giving Seattle the ball at their 20-yard line and effectively ending the game.

There is one catch.  A ball cannot be batted in the end zone.  It is a 10-yard penalty for illegal batting of the ball.  The correct call would have been to award Detroit the ball half the distance to the goalline from where the fumble occurred, or basically about 6-8 inches away from the goalline, plus an automatic first down.

The NFL later admitted that the referees had erred.  Speculation amongst ESPN personnel was that the officials refused to make a call that would obviously change the outcome of the game, because the ball was headed out of bounds and would have never been recovered by Detroit.  However, the rules are the rules, and officials have no business interpreting which rules should be enforced and which should be ignored.

This is not the first time a game in Seattle has been heavily scrutinized.  The “Fail Mary” play on Monday Night Football three years ago where Golden Tate pushed M.D. Jennings away and then stole the ball from Jennings when Jennings intercepted the ball at the end of the game.  Ironically, last night’s play occurred in the very spot where the 2012 play occurred.

As if that is not enough, the officiating of NFL games in Seattle has been called into question in a more blatant fashion by other bloggers.  Check out this supposed evidence.

The accusations of games being rigged are not a recent phenomenon.  Former Baltimore Colt star defensive end Bubba Smith went to his grave claiming that Super Bowl III was fixed in order to give the New York market a Super Bowl Champion and to give the American Football League credibility so that the upcoming merger would look better. Smith supplied no evidence, but many sports fans believed him then and have believed him ever since.

We here at the PiRate Ratings do not believe all the accusations, but we also are not naive to understand that hundreds of millions of dollars are wagered on NFL games, and there are people in this world that potentially have the power to “get” to personnel and encourage a game to be called a certain way.  Many people believe that organized crime once murdered a President to get rid of the Attorney General trying to end their reign of terror, so fixing a football game would be a walk in the park.

We pondered other games from the past that were nationally televised and ended in controversy, games that most likely had more money wagered on the outcome than the average game.  These are just games that one of the five of us saw live on TV and can remember.  In reverse chronological order, and excluding the Seattle games already mentioned, here is what we came up with.

 

A caveat to begin: we did not see any controversy in the 2014-15 Dallas-Green Bay playoff game.  Dez Bryant did not maintain control of the ball, and thus the correct call was made without controversy.

1999-2000 NFC Championship Game: The St. Louis Rams were the most exciting team in the NFL with their “Greatest Show on Turf” offense directed by offensive coordinator Mike Martz.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the most boring team in the NFL, leading the league in defense and low-scoring games.  Entering the fourth quarter in the game that would decide who would play another boring team in the AFC Champion Tennessee Titans, the Bucs led the Rams 6-5.  Kurt Warner drove the Rams for the go-ahead touchdown and led 11-6, but the Bucs responded with a nice drive of their own.  Quarterback  Shaun King threw a bullet pass to receiver Bert Emanuel who clearly caught the ball for a nice gain to set up a third and short inside Rams’ territory.

The officials were slow to stop the play and check the replay.  In the Fox Sports Booth, announcer Pat Summerall and analyst John Madden were perplexed at why there was a stoppage of play since Emanuel’s catch was obvious to everybody.  After booth review, the referee ruled the play an incomplete pass, and two plays later, the Rams were the NFC Champions.  The ruling was that the point of the football touched the ground when Emanuel fell after making the catch.  At the time, that rule was correct, but replay did not confirm that the ball actually touched the ground.  It should have been an inconclusive replay resulting in the play standing.  As a result, the most exciting team advanced to the Super Bowl over the most boring team in the NFL.

1979-80 AFC Championship Game: Trailing 17-10 in the fourth quarter at Three Rivers Stadium in Pittsbugrh, the Houston Oilers are driving for the game-tying touchdown.  Near the goalline, quarterback Dan Pastorini throws the fade pass to receiver Mike Renfro in the back of the endzone.  Renfro makes the catch and slides to get both feet inbounds, which replay clearly showed he did.  Official Don Orr fails to make a call on the play.  According to Renfro, Orr looks like a ghost, as he “swallows his whistle.”  It takes what seems like several minutes, but more accurately is about 45 seconds for the officials to huddle and rule the pass incomplete, greatly affecting the outcome of the game, and maybe more importantly changing the betting side winner.  The Steelers were 9 1/2-point favorites and covered when they scored a late touchdown to win by 14.  There was no instant replay rule in football then.

1976 AFC Playoffs First Round:  The New England Patriots had come of age in 1976.  With a stable full of great running backs, including quarterback Steve Grogan, New England made its first NFL Playoff and first overall playoff since they were the Boston Patriots in 1963.  Included in this 11-3 season, they blew Oakland off the field in the regular season 48-17, the only loss the Raiders suffered.

In the first round of the AFC playoffs, the game was close and could have gone either way, but in the closing stages of the fourth quarter, it appeared that New England would pen loss number two on Oakland.  The Pats led 21-17 late in the final stanza, when Oakland had one last possession to try to score the winning touchdown.  All appeared lost for the Raiders, as they faced a 3rd and 18 from inside their own 30-yard line.  Quarterback Ken Stabler dropped back and looked long as the Raiders typically tried in this situation.  Patriot defensive tackle Ray Hamilton broke through the blocking containment and headed straight for Stabler.  As Stabler released the ball, Hamilton got a finger or two on the ball slightly altering the spiral and course of the flight.  At the same time, he dropped Stabler to the turf, for what should have been 4th and 18 with 70+ yards to go for the win and about 75 seconds remaining in the game.

The official failed to see the deflected pass, and he threw his yellow handkerchief signalling roughing the passer.  There should have been no roughing on two counts.  The ball was deflected, and Hamilton hit Stabler as he was finishing his release.  The 15-yard penalty and automatic first down.  The Patriots’ defense lost its composure over the blatant bad call, and Stabler led the Raiders to paydirt with 10 seconds left in the game.

1975 NFC Playoffs First Round: The Minnesota Vikings led the Dallas Cowboys 14-10 with 32 seconds remaining in the opening playoff game at cold, blustery Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington.  Roger Staubach has guided the Cowboys to midfield, but time is running out, and a field goal will do Dallas no good.  Staubach dropped back to pass and pumped to his left to draw Vikings’ free safety Paul Krausse away from the point of attack.  He then heaved the ball far down the right sideline toward receiver Drew Pearson.  Defensive back Nate Wright is on Pearson like a glove, and the pass is underthrown.  Pearson sees that he will have to stop and even back up a half-step to catch the ball, but Wright is in his way.  Pearson pushes Wright just enough to come back and catch the ball as Wright falls to the ground.  Pearson then side-steps Wright into the end zone from the four yard line, and Dallas wins the game 17-14, giving birth to the “Hail Mary.”

There was actually a rules change as the result of this game, and it had nothing to do with pass interference.  Two minutes after the touchdown and non-call of offensive interference, a half-full whiskey bottle was thrown with more accuracy than Staubach’s pass.  The intended target, the field judge that failed to make the call, was hit directly on the back of his noggin by the bottle, causing brief unconsciousness and a contusion that required bandaging.  After that day, no glass bottles were allowed in NFL venues.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

This Week’s Games
         
Week Number: 5      
Date of Games: October 8-12      
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Houston Indianapolis -2.3 -1.7 -1.9
Kansas City Chicago 10.0 11.7 10.2
Cincinnati Seattle 1.5 3.2 2.2
Atlanta Washington 9.6 10.7 11.1
Tampa Bay Jacksonville 3.4 -0.3 3.8
Philadelphia New Orleans 8.2 11.0 7.8
Baltimore Cleveland 13.2 13.6 13.8
Green Bay St. Louis 15.2 12.9 16.2
Tennessee Buffalo -2.9 -3.8 -2.3
Detroit Arizona -2.1 -2.4 -2.8
Dallas New England -1.1 -4.1 -1.1
Oakland Denver -11.2 -6.8 -11.9
NY Giants San Francisco 8.4 10.9 9.2
San Diego Pittsburgh -1.4 -1.4 -2.1
Special Note About NFL Colors: We get questions at our sister site http://www.piratings.webs.com asking us how we get the colors for the NFL teams.  We have a Pantone Matching System color-creator, and the official Pantone colors for the NFL teams.  We choose omit any black or white colors from the teams, and occasionally, we choose an alternate color rather than the principle color.  The same Navy pantone is used by six different teams, so we choose to use the Columbia blue for the Titans and Sky blue for the Chargers rather than repeat the Navy color.

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas 105.5 103.9 105.7 105.0 2-2-0 95 101
Philadelphia 102.7 101.9 102.5 102.4 1-3-0 78 86
N.Y. Giants 101.0 101.2 101.5 101.2 2-2-0 102 82
Washington 94.7 94.4 94.4 94.5 2-2-0 78 79
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Green Bay 108.9 108.1 109.3 108.8 4-0-0 113 71
Minnesota 101.4 99.2 102.8 101.1 2-2-0 80 73
Detroit 101.1 100.0 100.8 100.6 0-4-0 66 96
Chicago 92.6 92.1 92.3 92.3 1-3-0 68 125
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Atlanta 101.3 102.1 102.5 102.0 4-0-0 137 93
Carolina 101.4 101.5 101.7 101.5 4-0-0 108 71
New Orleans 97.5 93.9 97.7 96.4 1-3-0 86 104
Tampa Bay 91.1 91.6 90.5 91.1 1-3-0 72 117
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Seattle 106.8 106.1 106.7 106.5 2-2-0 87 71
Arizona 105.7 104.9 106.1 105.6 3-1-0 148 73
St. Louis 96.7 98.2 96.1 97.0 2-2-0 74 89
San Francisco 96.6 94.3 96.3 95.7 1-3-0 48 110
               
A F C
East PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 109.6 110.0 109.8 109.8 3-0-0 119 70
Buffalo 102.0 102.6 102.1 102.2 2-2-0 110 92
N. Y. Jets 101.4 101.9 102.1 101.8 3-1-0 95 55
Miami 94.8 96.2 93.5 94.8 1-3-0 65 101
               
North PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Cincinnati 104.8 105.8 105.4 105.3 4-0-0 121 77
Pittsburgh 104.0 104.0 104.1 104.0 2-2-0 96 75
Baltimore 103.9 103.2 104.4 103.8 1-3-0 93 104
Cleveland 93.7 92.6 93.6 93.3 1-3-0 85 102
               
South PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 100.8 101.2 100.2 100.7 2-2-0 72 93
Tennessee 96.1 95.8 96.8 96.2 1-2-0 89 77
Houston 95.5 96.5 95.3 95.8 1-3-0 77 108
Jacksonville 89.7 93.9 88.7 90.8 1-3-0 62 107
               
West PiRate Mean Bias Average W-L-T Pts Opp
Denver 106.8 106.1 106.7 106.5 4-0-0 97 69
Kansas City 99.6 100.8 99.5 100.0 2-2-0 100 125
San Diego 99.6 99.6 99.0 99.4 2-2-0 96 110
Oakland 92.6 96.3 91.8 93.6 2-2-0 97 108

September 24, 2015

Selections Against The Spread–September 24-28, 2015

Today, we expand our fun nonsense with three different types of selections to lose you money quicker than if you throw it away playing one weekend fantasy games.  Before you throw away good money thinking you can be that one person in 20 million that makes a million dollars, and before you decide to lose it in the conventional way by playing the stock market, consider losing it this much more entertaining way.

Pardon us whilst we remove tongues from cheeks.

Seriously, just remember that these selections are worth less than what you pay for them.  Use these only as something to either endorse your prior beliefs of convince you to pocket that extra change in your wallet and buy some nice flowers for your utmost.

Today, we have decided to go with five sides picks, seven 10-point teasers, and one stupendous Money Line parlay.

Did we mention this: DO NOT use these picks as your guide to lose all your money this weekend.  How much will the PiRates wager this weekend?  A big fat 0.  We have chosen to go the flowers route; the payoff is so wonderful.

 

Sides

Home Visitor Line Our Pick
Syracuse LSU 24.5 Syracuse
Carolina New Orleans 3 Carolina
N. Y. Giants Washington 3 N. Y. Giants
Baltimore Cincinnati 2.5 Baltimore
Cleveland Oakland 3 Cleveland

10-Point Teasers

Home Visitor Teaser Pick
1
Washington California -14 Washington
Baylor Rice 44.5 Rice
Charlotte Florida Atlantic -21.5 Charlotte
         
2
Syracuse LSU -34.5 Syracuse
Michigan BYU 15.5 BYU
Kentucky Missouri 12.5 Missouri
         
3
Virginia Boise St. 7.5 Boise St.
Notre Dame Masachusetts 19 Notre Dame
Ole Miss Vanderbilt 15 Ole Miss
         
4
Dallas Atlanta 10 Atlanta
Carolina New Orleans -7 Carolina
St. Louis Pittsburgh 10 Pittsburgh
         
5
Miami Buffalo 12.5 Buffalo
N. Y. Giants Washington -7 N. Y. Giants
Houston Tampa Bay -3 Houston
         
6
Seattle Chicago 25.5 Chicago
New England Jacksonville 4.5 New England
Baltimore Cincinnati 12.5 Cincinnati
         
7
Cleveland Oakland -7 Cleveland
Green Bay Kansas City -2.5 Green Bay
Minnesota San Diego 11 San Diego

Money Line Parlay

For those two or three of you that have read this far and do not know what a Money Line parlay is, we will tell you, but we will also wonder why you have read this far in the first place.

The Money Line allows you to select the winner of a particular game without having to worry about a point spread.  However, since it is obvious that the favorite has a better chance to win the game than the underdog, you must pay a premium when you select the favorite to win the game.  For example, this week New England is an overwhelming favorite to beat Jacksonville.  The Money Line allows you to wager on New England to win the game by just one point and return money to you.  However, the Money Line odds for this game at most Las Vegas books is: New England -1400 and Jacksonville +800.  What this means is for every $1,400 you wager on New England at -1400, you can win $100 more than you wager.  So, if you put down $1,400 on New England on a Money Line wager, you receive $1,500 if New England wins (Your original $1,400 plus $100 profit, which is a return on your investment of 7.1%).  If you believe Jacksonville will upset the Patriots in Foxboro on Sunday and wager just $100 on the Jaguars to win the game, you stand to receive $900 (Your original $100 plus $800 profit) if Jacksonville wins.

A Money Line Parlay allows you to combine multiple games into one wager.  Let’s say that you have 3 favorites you believe will all win and feel confident enough to lay down cash for one combined wager.  For an example let’s use a possible 4-team Money Line Parlay for Sunday.

Houston is currently -280 vs. Tampa Bay

New England is currently -1400 vs. Jacksonville

Seattle is currently -1600 vs. Chicago

Green Bay is currently -320 vs. Kansas City

If you believe Houston, New England, Seattle, and Green Bay are certain winners and combine these four games into one wager, our parlay calculator says that for every $100 you wager, you will get back $203 (Your original $100 plus $103 profit) if the four teams all win.  If just one of the four loses or ties, then you lose your $100.

Just for fun, what if you think New England and Seattle will win with 100% belief in your mind?  What if you combine -1400 and -1600 into one wager?  The payout on $100 wagered would be just $114.  That is obviously a 14% return on your investment.  Now remember that in your mind this is 100% winnable.  Where else can you return 14% on an investment in one weekend?  Ah, this is why there are so many broke individuals in Las Vegas, and why the books and casinos can build new and improved versions every few years.  Who do you think wins the majority of these wagers?

Now that you have been warned, here is our super-duper 8-team Money Line Parlay for this week.  This returns at a rate slightly better than 3-2 if it wins.  For every $100 you wager on this parlay, if all eight teams win, your return is $251 (Your original $100 plus $151 profit).

And, here it is:

Money Line Parlay 8-team Parlay
3-2 odds
$151 payout for $100
Favorite Underdog  Odds Must Win
Nebraska Southern Miss.  -1400
Nebraska
Houston Texas St.  -800 Houston
Penn St. San Diego St.  -800 Penn St.
Western Kentucky Miami (O)  -1150 West Virginia
Georgia Southern Idaho  -750 Georgia Southern
South Carolina Central Florida  -650 South Carolina
Oregon Utah  -500 Oregon
Northwestern Ball St.  -1200 Northwestern

Did we mention that we strongly advise you not to wager real money on any of our recommendations?  Consider how much you paid for this information.  The sharpest of the sharp bettors make consistent profit during football season.  Do they look at our recommendations?  Okay, Billy, if you are reading this, please let us know.

July 16, 2015

2015 Football Season Returns Soon

Filed under: 1 — Tags: , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 10:31 am

Welcome back football fans.  The PiRates are back at it working late nights compiling the 2015-16 college and NFL ratings.

Look for the new season to kick off in Mid-August, when we begin previewing each of the FBS conferences, one at a time, beginning with the lowest rated conference and ending with the highest rated conference.  Gee, can you guess which conference might be the tops?  Hint:  A current Big Ten coach once said that the three toughest leagues in American Football were the NFC, the AFC, and this conference.

It will come as no surprise which individual team is number one in the preseason, and it also will not be all that surprising when they debut with the highest preseason PiRate Rating since Nebraska began the 1995 season.  Hint:  Their third best quarterback might be a top Heisman Trophy contender if he played at any of the other 24 teams in the Top 25.

The NFL Ratings will appear after the final college conference preview, and this will lead up to the first week’s college schedule.

The Ratings and spreads each week will be available from our website at http://www.piratings.webs.com.  This blog site will add extras, and if we can ever get the tabular format to align properly here, we will post the ratings and spreads here as well.

Enjoy the remainder of your summer, and remember to come back to this blog in Mid-August for our first conference preview.

November 26, 2013

PiRate Ratings: NFL–November 28-December 2, 2013

The Division & Wildcard Races

NFC East: It is now a two-team race between Dallas and Philadelphia with the Giants and Redskins falling back out of the race.  Both teams have three home games remaining, but the important Week 17 game between the two rivals takes place at Cowboys Stadium.  This week, we favor Dallas to edge the Eagles out, and we do not project the Eagles to get in as a wildcard.

 

NFC North: Mediocrity has set in with the loss of two starting quarterbacks.  Aaron Rodgers is worth about 10-13 points per game, and his loss has turned the Packers into a poor team.  Matt Flynn is an improvement over Scott Tolzien, but the Packers will not get their star back until Week 14, by which time Green Bay could be 5-6-1 and 1 ½ games behind Detroit and possibly Chicago.  We believe that the Bears and Lions might both finish 9-7, so Rodgers would have to lead the Packers to four consecutive wins when he returns.  The Rodgers of December 8 will not be the Rodgers of September 8, and we believe the division race will be decided in Week 15 and Week 16.  In Week 15, Chicago plays at Cleveland and Detroit hosts Baltimore.  The following week, Chicago plays at Philadelphia, and Detroit hosts the Giants.  We favor Detroit by a tiny edge this week.

 

NFC South: Short of a collapse, Carolina will secure the number 5 seed with the first wildcard, while New Orleans will earn the number two seed and host a divisional round playoff game.  Or, it could be the other way around, since the two hot teams have yet to face off this season.  We believe the Saints will hold onto the two-game edge.  This week could very well be a preview of the NFC Championship Game, as New Orleans goes to Seattle on Monday Night Football.  New Orleans does have an incredibly tough December with three road games against teams with a combined 23-10 record as well as Carolina at home.

 

NFC West:  Seattle should secure home field advantage through the Conference Championship Game.  The Seahawks host the Saints this week and follow that up with a road trip to San Francisco.  At worst, if they lose both games, they should still finish 13-3.  The 49ers and Cardinals are the top two competitors for the sixth and final playoff spot.  The two square off in Phoenix in Week 17, but we believe that San Francisco will have clinched the wildcard bid before that game.  The 49ers have a schedule advantage for the next four weeks with three home games, while Arizona has three road games in the next four weeks.

 

AFC East: It is now safe to write New England’s name in ink as the official AFC East Champion.  With a three game lead against mediocre opposition, there is no chance that the Patriots will miss out on the playoffs.  A possible 12-4 record should earn the Pats a Divisional Round home game and first round bye.  The Dolphins, Bills, and Jets are all within one game of the final wildcard spot, but we do not like any of the trio’s chances.  Miami and the Jets have serious problems and appear to be heading to valleys.  Buffalo could pass both and finish in 2nd place with a 7-9 record.

 

AFC North: Cincinnati is vulnerable here.  The Bengals are not a complete team.  They are inconsistent on both sides of the ball, but the real reason is that some opponents can exploit their weaknesses, while others cannot.  What is left on their schedule?  Four teams capable of exploiting their weaknesses.  A 2-3 finish is quite possible, which would send the Bengals to a 9-7 record.  It should still be enough to win the division, but the Ravens and Steelers are both capable of finishing 9-7 as well.  Thursday night’s Baltimore-Pittsburgh game at M&T Bank Stadium will leave one of the rivals at 6-6 with an excellent chance to go 3-1 down the stretch.

 

AFC South: Indianapolis is much like Cincinnati, except the Colts are even more vulnerable to teams that have superb passing quarterbacks.  Still, the rest of this league is weaker than the three weaker AFC East teams.  At worst, the Colts will falter to finish 10-6, and that will win this league by two to four games.  Tennessee is the technical number six team as of this week, but the Titans’ next two games are on the road against Indianapolis and Denver, which will send them to a 5-8 record with three to play.  The last wildcard spot will go to a 9-7 team.

 

AFC West: The race has gotten a little interesting.  Peyton Manning once again proved his inability to play in cold weather.  The Broncos covered for him in the first half with the defense scoring or setting up the scores, but Manning had one of his poorest performances in a Broncos’ uniform.  Kansas City’s once stellar defense has been picked apart in successive weeks by division rivals.  Still, the Chiefs need only win one more game to wrap up a wildcard bid.  San Diego is the 5-6 team with the overall best chance to finish 9-7.  Phillip Rivers has seen his career resurrected with Coach Mike McCoy and offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt present.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Dallas Cowboys

100.6

101.9

100.4

Philadelphia Eagles

98.9

100.1

99.2

New York Giants

96.3

96.1

95.5

Washington Redskins

95.0

95.0

94.7

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Chicago Bears

100.5

100.2

99.9

Detroit Lions

99.9

100.3

99.8

Green Bay Packers

98.2

97.0

97.1

Minnesota Vikings

94.6

94.0

93.8

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

107.8

109.2

108.7

Carolina Panthers

106.1

106.4

106.7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

97.3

97.1

97.4

Atlanta Falcons

94.8

94.0

93.8

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Francisco 49ers

110.1

110.8

110.6

Seattle Seahawks

107.6

107.6

107.8

Arizona Cardinals

100.9

102.2

101.5

St. Louis Rams

100.8

101.6

101.3

       

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

106.6

104.9

106.9

Miami Dolphins

98.6

98.3

98.9

Buffalo Bills

97.5

96.6

97.5

New York Jets

93.0

91.3

92.7

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Cincinnati Bengals

106.3

106.2

106.4

Baltimore Ravens

102.8

102.4

102.9

Pittsburgh Steelers

99.6

99.6

100.0

Cleveland Browns

95.8

95.5

95.4

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

100.6

100.7

100.7

Tennessee Titans

98.0

98.1

98.2

Houston Texans

95.2

94.5

95.1

Jacksonville Jaguars

88.8

88.5

88.5

       
West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

110.6

110.9

111.0

Kansas City Chiefs

102.3

103.7

102.7

San Diego Chargers

101.3

101.9

101.2

Oakland Raiders

93.6

93.4

93.7

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Detroit Green Bay

4.2

5.8

5.2

Dallas Oakland

10.0

11.5

9.7

Baltimore Pittsburgh

5.7

5.3

5.4

Carolina Tampa Bay

11.3

11.8

11.8

Cleveland Jacksonville

10.0

10.0

9.9

Indianapolis Tennessee

6.3

6.6

6.3

Kansas City Denver

-5.3

-4.2

-5.3

Minnesota Chicago

-3.4

-3.7

-3.6

N Y Jets Miami

-2.6

-4.0

-3.2

Philadelphia Arizona

1.5

1.4

1.2

Buffalo (@ Toronto) Atlanta

4.2

4.1

5.2

San Francisco St. Louis

12.3

12.2

12.3

Houston New England

-8.4

-7.4

-8.8

San Diego Cincinnati

-2.0

-1.3

-2.2

Washington N Y Giants

1.2

1.4

1.7

Seattle New Orleans

2.8

1.4

2.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Playoff Projections

A F C

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Indianapolis

4. Cincinnati

5. Kansas City

6. San Diego

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. New Orleans

3. Dallas

4. Detroit

5. Carolina

6. San Francisco

 

Wildcard Round

San Diego over Indianapolis

Kansas City over Cincinnati

San Francisco over Dallas

Carolina over Detroit

 

Divisional Round

Denver over San Diego

Kansas City over New England

Seattle over San Francisco

New Orleans over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

Kansas City over Denver

Seattle over New Orleans

 

Super Bowl

Seattle over Kansas City

November 19, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–November 19-23, 2013

Many Interesting Possible Trap Games This Week

As the season rounds the backstretch and heads for the wire, this week starts the trend of multiple trap games due to many factors.

 

Many teams have experienced a disappointment by not meeting expectations, yet they are bowl-eligible.  A team that is a disappointing 6-4 or 7-3 at this point will not get up to play its best.

 

As a counter to that, there are some teams that have stayed mathematically alive for bowl eligibility, when they were not expected to challenge for a .500 record.  Improving teams that are 4-6, 4-5, or 5-5 can be very dangerous, knowing that they can still get into a bowl.

 

Many teams enjoy an off week before a vital or rivalry game, while their opponent had to play the previous week.  Watch out for those teams coming off byes.  Any decent FBS coaching staff can discover and adjust a lot more when given an extra five to seven days to prepare.  Add rest to the banged up players, and this team plays its best games in this situation.

 

There is another factor.  Some teams began the year needing some added experience to reach their peak, and they are reaching their peak about now.  Other teams began with loads of experience and peaked in September.  They are sliding now, ripe for an upset loss.

 

Let’s take a look at some of the possibilities this week.

 

Northern Illinois at Toledo: Toledo qualifies as one of those teams that is peaking at the right time.  The Rockets have the talent and teamwork to end the Huskies’ BCS Bowl chances.  Look for an exciting, high scoring game, and Toledo has a 50-50 chance of pulling off the upset.

 

Navy at San Jose St: Navy is bowl eligible at 6-4; the Midshipmen are going to the Armed Forces Bowl regardless of the outcome of this game.  They are already looking forward to the Army game.  San Jose St. is 5-5 and needs one win in the last two to become bowl-eligible.  The other game is against Fresno St., so the Spartan players probably realize this is the game they must win.  Expect SJSU to bring their A-game, while Navy does not function on all cylinders.

 

USC at Colorado: On paper, this should be a major blowout.  However, Colorado is now in line for a bowl game if the Buffaloes can upset USC and win at Utah.  They would have to receive a waiver due to beating two FCS teams, but they had extenuating circumstances when they added Charleston Southern to the schedule after losing a game to the September flood in Boulder.  USC is due to bounce after the big upset win over Stanford.  While the Trojans should win, the margin could be a bunch less than expected.

 

Michigan St. at Northwestern: Northwestern was 4-0 when they took Ohio St. to the final minute of the game before losing.  The Wildcats have now lost six straight and must win their final two games to get back to a bowl.  With a weak Illinois team waiting, NU must pull off the big upset to finish 6-6.  Michigan St. can lose out and still make it to the Big Ten Championship Game.  The only way the Spartans can miss out now is to lose this game and to Minnesota, while Minnesota upsets Wisconsin.  In other words, the Spartans are already thinking about Ohio St.  Look for NU to cover the spread, and if MSU is really flat, watch out.

 

Oklahoma at Kansas St.: This game qualifies under two factors.  Oklahoma has been a disappointment and is looking forward to the rivalry game at Oklahoma St.  Kansas St. is peaking at the right time, and the Wildcats have a chance to move past the Sooners in the Big 12 standings.  KSU should be sky high for this game, while OU acts like they’d rather be taking a nap.

 

Memphis at Louisville: You might think this is a joke.  We don’t concur.  Memphis is 3-6 with games to be played against Temple and UConn.  It is reasonable to expect that the Tigers can win both games.  They need this upset win to make the final two meaningful.  Additionally, Memphis would like to show UL that this is still a fierce rivalry.  As for the Cardinals, they meet two of our qualifications.  This season is now a disappointment (they expected to go 12-0), and they peaked weeks ago.  UL is primed for one more loss before the bowls.

 

Michigan at Iowa: Michigan peaked earlier in the season, and now the Wolverines are treading water trying not to go under.  Ohio St. looms two weeks ahead.  Iowa had a week off, and the Hawkeyes are still improving.  Look for the black and gold to play with more effort than the maize and blue.

 

Wisconsin at Minnesota: Consider this one a cousin to our theories.  Wisconsin has not peaked, and this is a key rivalry game that they want to win.  The Badgers still have a shot at an at-large BCS Bowl berth.  Minnesota has even more to play for.  If they upset Wisconsin and Michigan St. loses to Northwestern, the Gophers will play Sparty for the Legends Division title the following week.  The Gophers are peaking in November, so this game should be one of the most entertaining rivalry games this year.  Paul Bunyan’s axe may stay in Madison, but we think this game will be close.

 

Utah at Washington St.: This is a tossup game to begin with, but Utah has more to play for.  The Cougars believe they can topple their arch-rival Huskies in the Apple Cup game on Black Friday, and they might be taking a peak forward.  Utah is perhaps the best 4-6 team in the nation, and the Utes must win out to go bowling.

 

Vanderbilt at Tennessee: Tennessee has three things going for it in this game.  The Volunteers were not expected to play above .500 in Butch Jones’ first year on the hill.  However, wins in this game and at Kentucky next week will send the Orange to Memphis and the Liberty Bowl.  Tennessee had a week off while Vanderbilt played a tough game against Kentucky.  Now, add the revenge factor after Vandy put the biggest embarrassment on the UT football program since the Vols lost to Chattanooga decades ago, and even though the black and gold looks to be 14-20 points more talented, we believe this game will be decided in the final minutes.

 

For The Third Time Ever

It happened in 1974 and again in 1983, and for just the third time, it happens again this weekend.  Florida St. is a 70+ point PiRate Rating favorite against Idaho.

 

We do not have the records for 1969 through 1988, but we do have our memories.  In September of 1974, Oklahoma was a 70-something point favorite over Wake Forest.  What we do remember is that the Deacons came into that game not having won in their previous 13, while Oklahoma had not lost in their previous 20.  We think the actual spread was 74 points (we did not have decimals in those days, just whole numbers).  The Sooners won that game 72-3.

 

In 1983, Nebraska played Minnesota as a 71-point favorite in our ratings.  In the early 1980’s, we actually predicted scores, and our prediction for that game was 77-6.  The actual final was 84-13, an exact 71-point margin.

 

We missed on several 70-point wins in the past.  When Houston almost hung 100 on SMU and won 95-21 back in the late 1980’s, we had the Cougars favored by 59.  We did not rate teams in 1968, but this is the weekend anniversary of Houston’s 100-6 win over Tulsa in 1968.  Florida St. could score 100 points in this game, but they will not do so.  Expect the starters to come out as early as the start of the second quarter.  The Seminoles could lead 42-0 after one quarter and 56-0 by halftime, but Jimbo Fisher will not allow his team to score 44 more points, even though FSU could score 112 points in this game (4 TDs per quarter).

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

136.5

2

Florida St.

136.2

3

Oregon

133.1

4

Baylor

130.7

5

Ohio St.

128.5

6

Stanford

126.0

7

Oklahoma St.

124.0

8

Arizona St.

124.0

9

Missouri

123.8

10

Wisconsin

123.6

11

L S U

122.6

12

Clemson

121.5

13

Texas A&M

121.5

14

Michigan St.

120.4

15

Washington

119.7

16

Ole Miss

119.3

17

U S C

119.1

18

U C L A

119.1

19

Auburn

119.1

20

South Carolina

119.1

21

Texas

115.8

22

Oklahoma

115.8

23

Oregon St.

115.4

24

Georgia

115.0

25

B Y U

114.9

26

Louisville

114.4

27

Kansas St.

114.0

28

Florida

112.4

29

Arizona

111.9

30

Michigan

111.8

31

Nebraska

111.5

32

Georgia Tech

110.8

33

Miami

110.8

34

Notre Dame

110.7

35

Utah

110.3

36

Northwestern

108.5

37

Vanderbilt

108.2

38

Mississippi St.

108.2

39

Texas Tech

107.5

40

Cincinnati

107.4

41

North Carolina

107.3

42

Virginia Tech

107.3

43

Iowa

106.8

44

Fresno St.

106.7

45

T C U

106.7

46

Central Florida

106.6

47

East Carolina

106.5

48

Minnesota

106.4

49

Duke

105.2

50

Boise St.

105.2

51

Utah St.

105.1

52

Northern Illinois

104.8

53

Penn St.

104.4

54

Bowling Green

104.4

55

Washington St.

104.0

56

Houston

102.7

57

Tennessee

102.2

58

Boston College

101.7

59

Indiana

101.7

60

Toledo

101.5

61

West Virginia

101.0

62

Marshall

100.7

63

Pittsburgh

100.4

64

Ball St.

100.0

65

North Texas

99.7

66

Buffalo

99.7

67

Syracuse

98.9

68

Rice

98.3

69

Wake Forest

98.3

70

Kentucky

98.2

71

Maryland

97.0

72

Illinois

96.9

73

Navy

96.8

74

Colorado St.

96.3

75

Arkansas

95.9

76

San Jose St.

95.8

77

S M U

95.1

78

San Diego St.

93.7

79

Kansas

93.5

80

Louisiana–Lafayette

93.3

81

Arkansas St.

93.2

82

Rutgers

93.1

83

Iowa St.

91.7

84

Florida Atlantic

91.2

85

Memphis

91.1

86

North Carolina St.

91.0

87

U T S A

90.4

88

Colorado

89.9

89

Western Kentucky

89.6

90

Temple

89.6

91

California

89.5

92

Virginia

89.1

93

Ohio

89.1

94

Middle Tennessee

88.4

95

Tulane

87.5

96

U N L V

87.2

97

South Florida

86.6

98

Purdue

86.6

99

Kent St.

86.3

100

Louisiana–Monroe

86.1

101

Nevada

85.9

102

Tulsa

85.9

103

South Alabama

85.9

104

Wyoming

85.6

105

Connecticut

83.5

106

Troy

83.2

107

Hawaii

83.0

108

Central Michigan

82.4

109

Akron

82.2

110

Texas St.

82.1

111

Army

82.0

112

New Mexico

81.3

113

Air Force

79.3

114

Louisiana Tech

78.9

115

U T E P

78.6

116

U A B

77.5

117

Western Michigan

75.6

118

Massachusetts

72.8

119

New Mexico St.

72.7

120

Eastern Michigan

71.1

121

Miami (O)

70.5

122

Idaho

68.1

123

Florida Int’l

66.1

124

Georgia St.

64.8

125

Southern Miss.

64.6

 

PiRate Mean

1

Florida St.

140.2

2

Alabama

132.7

3

Oregon

129.6

4

Ohio St.

127.5

5

Wisconsin

124.5

6

Baylor

124.2

7

Arizona St.

123.1

8

Clemson

123.0

9

Missouri

122.0

10

Michigan St.

121.0

11

L S U

120.4

12

Texas A&M

119.3

13

Stanford

119.0

14

Auburn

118.4

15

South Carolina

116.5

16

Ole Miss

116.3

17

Oklahoma St.

116.0

18

U S C

115.8

19

Washington

115.6

20

U C L A

114.5

21

B Y U

113.7

22

Louisville

113.5

23

Georgia

112.8

24

Miami

111.8

25

Michigan

111.8

26

Oklahoma

110.9

27

Georgia Tech

110.1

28

Nebraska

109.9

29

Houston

109.8

30

Central Florida

109.7

31

Florida

109.5

32

North Carolina

108.8

33

Notre Dame

108.6

34

East Carolina

108.5

35

Arizona

108.3

36

Virginia Tech

108.1

37

Utah

108.1

38

Oregon St.

108.0

39

Cincinnati

107.6

40

Texas

107.5

41

Northern Illinois

107.4

42

Kansas St.

106.8

43

Duke

106.6

44

Minnesota

106.6

45

Vanderbilt

106.5

46

Fresno St.

106.4

47

Northwestern

106.1

48

Iowa

106.0

49

Mississippi St.

105.8

50

Bowling Green

105.3

51

Penn St.

105.0

52

Marshall

104.1

53

Toledo

103.7

54

Indiana

103.4

55

Ball St.

103.3

56

Utah St.

103.3

57

Washington St.

103.1

58

Boston College

102.8

59

Texas Tech

102.6

60

North Texas

102.4

61

Boise St.

101.9

62

Buffalo

101.8

63

Rice

101.1

64

T C U

101.1

65

Tennessee

101.1

66

Wake Forest

101.1

67

Maryland

100.2

68

Pittsburgh

99.8

69

Syracuse

98.9

70

Illinois

98.7

71

Navy

98.6

72

Arkansas

98.3

73

Kentucky

97.0

74

S M U

96.6

75

Colorado St.

96.3

76

Rutgers

95.8

77

Memphis

95.8

78

Louisiana–Lafayette

95.0

79

North Carolina St.

94.4

80

West Virginia

94.2

81

San Jose St.

93.4

82

Middle Tennessee

93.2

83

San Diego St.

92.7

84

Arkansas St.

92.5

85

Ohio

92.4

86

U T S A

92.4

87

Western Kentucky

91.9

88

Florida Atlantic

91.7

89

Temple

91.2

90

Tulane

90.9

91

Virginia

90.8

92

Colorado

90.2

93

Kansas

89.2

94

Kent St.

89.1

95

U N L V

88.8

96

South Alabama

88.7

97

Nevada

87.5

98

Army

87.5

99

Louisiana–Monroe

86.9

100

Wyoming

86.7

101

Texas St.

86.6

102

Akron

85.9

103

Troy

85.8

104

California

85.7

105

Tulsa

85.2

106

New Mexico

85.0

107

Central Michigan

84.7

108

Purdue

84.3

109

South Florida

84.0

110

Iowa St.

83.7

111

Hawaii

83.2

112

Air Force

82.7

113

Louisiana Tech

81.0

114

U T E P

80.7

115

Connecticut

80.0

116

U A B

78.4

117

Massachusetts

77.8

118

Western Michigan

77.5

119

New Mexico St.

75.8

120

Eastern Michigan

73.7

121

Miami (O)

73.5

122

Idaho

72.0

123

Georgia St.

70.5

124

Florida Int’l

68.1

125

Southern Miss.

64.6

 

PiRate Bias

1

Florida St.

138.1

2

Alabama

137.2

3

Oregon

133.7

4

Baylor

132.8

5

Ohio St.

128.7

6

Stanford

125.4

7

Wisconsin

124.8

8

Oklahoma St.

124.3

9

Arizona St.

123.6

10

Missouri

123.2

11

L S U

123.1

12

Clemson

123.0

13

Texas A&M

121.3

14

Michigan St.

120.0

15

Auburn

119.2

16

U S C

119.1

17

Washington

119.1

18

Ole Miss

118.6

19

U C L A

118.1

20

South Carolina

118.0

21

B Y U

115.9

22

Oklahoma

115.3

23

Louisville

114.9

24

Georgia

114.5

25

Texas

114.4

26

Oregon St.

113.7

27

Kansas St.

113.2

28

Florida

111.2

29

Miami

110.8

30

Michigan

110.8

31

Georgia Tech

110.5

32

Utah

110.4

33

Nebraska

110.3

34

Arizona

110.1

35

Notre Dame

109.0

36

Mississippi St.

108.6

37

North Carolina

108.4

38

Northwestern

108.3

39

Vanderbilt

108.0

40

Central Florida

107.7

41

East Carolina

107.3

42

Cincinnati

107.2

43

Iowa

107.1

44

Virginia Tech

106.9

45

Texas Tech

106.7

46

Boise St.

106.6

47

Utah St.

106.6

48

Minnesota

106.4

49

Fresno St.

106.3

50

T C U

106.2

51

Northern Illinois

105.8

52

Bowling Green

105.2

53

Duke

104.8

54

Washington St.

104.8

55

Houston

104.3

56

Penn St.

103.3

57

Boston College

102.9

58

Toledo

102.7

59

Marshall

102.1

60

Indiana

101.2

61

Buffalo

101.1

62

Tennessee

101.1

63

North Texas

100.9

64

Ball St.

100.8

65

Pittsburgh

100.3

66

West Virginia

100.0

67

Rice

99.0

68

Wake Forest

98.8

69

Syracuse

98.4

70

Kentucky

98.4

71

Maryland

98.2

72

Navy

97.2

73

Colorado St.

97.2

74

Illinois

96.4

75

San Jose St.

96.2

76

Arkansas

94.7

77

S M U

94.6

78

San Diego St.

94.2

79

Louisiana–Lafayette

93.6

80

Arkansas St.

93.3

81

Kansas

93.1

82

Rutgers

93.0

83

Florida Atlantic

92.3

84

Memphis

91.8

85

North Carolina St.

91.4

86

Iowa St.

90.3

87

U T S A

90.2

88

Western Kentucky

89.7

89

Middle Tennessee

89.4

90

Ohio

89.4

91

Temple

89.4

92

Virginia

89.1

93

Colorado

88.4

94

Tulane

87.9

95

U N L V

87.8

96

California

87.5

97

Kent St.

86.5

98

Wyoming

86.3

99

South Alabama

86.3

100

Louisiana–Monroe

86.1

101

South Florida

86.1

102

Nevada

85.9

103

Tulsa

84.8

104

Troy

84.2

105

Purdue

84.1

106

Hawaii

83.6

107

Army

83.4

108

Connecticut

82.9

109

Akron

82.6

110

Texas St.

82.3

111

Central Michigan

82.0

112

New Mexico

81.9

113

Air Force

79.1

114

Louisiana Tech

78.2

115

U T E P

78.0

116

U A B

76.4

117

Western Michigan

75.5

118

Massachusetts

72.9

119

New Mexico St.

72.6

120

Eastern Michigan

70.0

121

Miami (O)

69.1

122

Idaho

67.9

123

Georgia St.

66.1

124

Florida Int’l

65.5

125

Southern Miss.

63.5

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

5-1

9-1

114.4

113.5

114.9

Cincinnati

5-1

8-2

107.4

107.6

107.2

Central Florida

5-0

8-1

106.6

109.7

107.7

Houston

4-2

7-3

102.7

109.8

104.3

S M U

3-2

4-5

95.1

96.6

94.6

Rutgers

2-3

5-4

93.1

95.8

93.0

Memphis

1-4

3-6

91.1

95.8

91.8

Temple

0-6

1-9

89.6

91.2

89.4

South Florida

2-3

2-7

86.6

84.0

86.1

Connecticut

0-5

0-9

83.5

80.0

82.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

97.0

98.4

97.2

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

8-0

10-0

136.2

140.2

138.1

Clemson

7-1

9-1

121.5

123.0

123.0

Boston College

3-3

6-4

101.7

102.8

102.9

Syracuse

3-3

5-5

98.9

98.9

98.4

Wake Forest

2-5

4-6

98.3

101.1

98.8

Maryland

2-4

6-4

97.0

100.2

98.2

North Carolina St.

0-7

3-7

91.0

94.4

91.4

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Georgia Tech

5-3

6-4

110.8

110.1

110.5

Miami

3-3

7-3

110.8

111.8

110.8

North Carolina

4-3

5-5

107.3

108.8

108.4

Virginia Tech

4-3

7-4

107.3

108.1

106.9

Duke

4-2

8-2

105.2

106.6

104.8

Pittsburgh

2-4

5-5

100.4

99.8

100.3

Virginia

0-6

2-8

89.1

90.8

89.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.4

106.9

105.8

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baylor

6-0

9-0

130.7

124.2

132.8

Oklahoma St.

6-1

9-1

124.0

116.0

124.3

Texas

6-1

7-3

115.8

107.5

114.4

Oklahoma

5-2

8-2

115.8

110.9

115.3

Kansas St.

4-3

6-4

114.0

106.8

113.2

Texas Tech

4-4

7-4

107.5

102.6

106.7

T C U

2-6

4-7

106.7

101.1

106.2

West Virginia

2-6

4-7

101.0

94.2

100.0

Kansas

1-6

3-7

93.5

89.2

93.1

Iowa St.

0-7

1-9

91.7

83.7

90.3

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.1

103.6

109.6

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

6-0

10-0

128.5

127.5

128.7

Wisconsin

5-1

8-2

123.6

124.5

124.8

Penn St.

3-3

6-4

104.4

105.0

103.3

Indiana

2-4

4-6

101.7

103.4

101.2

Illinois

0-6

3-7

96.9

98.7

96.4

Purdue

0-6

1-9

86.6

84.3

84.1

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

6-0

9-1

120.4

121.0

120.0

Michigan

3-3

7-3

111.8

111.8

110.8

Nebraska

4-2

7-3

111.5

109.9

110.3

Northwestern

0-6

4-6

108.5

106.1

108.3

Iowa

3-3

6-4

106.8

106.0

107.1

Minnesota

4-2

8-2

106.4

106.6

106.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

108.9

108.7

108.5

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

6-1

8-2

106.5

108.5

107.3

Marshall

5-1

7-3

100.7

104.1

102.1

Florida Atlantic

3-4

4-6

91.2

91.7

92.3

Middle Tennessee

4-2

6-4

88.4

93.2

89.4

U A B

1-5

2-8

77.5

78.4

76.4

Florida Int’l

1-5

1-9

66.1

68.1

65.5

Southern Miss.

0-6

0-10

64.6

64.6

63.5

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

North Texas

5-1

7-3

99.7

102.4

100.9

Rice

5-1

7-3

98.3

101.1

99.0

U T S A

4-2

5-5

90.4

92.4

90.2

Tulane

4-2

6-4

87.5

90.9

87.9

Tulsa

1-5

2-8

85.9

85.2

84.8

Louisiana Tech

3-3

4-6

78.9

81.0

78.2

U T E P

1-5

2-8

78.6

80.7

78.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

86.7

88.7

86.8

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

B Y U

 

7-3

114.9

113.7

115.9

Notre Dame

 

7-3

110.7

108.6

109.0

Navy

 

6-4

96.8

98.6

97.2

Army

 

3-7

82.0

87.5

83.4

Idaho

 

1-9

68.1

72.0

67.9

New Mexico St.

 

1-9

72.7

75.8

72.6

     

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.9

92.7

91.0

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

5-1

7-3

104.4

105.3

105.2

Buffalo

5-1

7-3

99.7

101.8

101.1

Ohio

3-3

6-4

89.1

92.4

89.4

Kent St.

2-5

3-8

86.3

89.1

86.5

Akron

3-4

4-7

82.2

85.9

82.6

Massachusetts

1-5

1-9

72.8

77.8

72.9

Miami (O)

0-6

0-10

70.5

73.5

69.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Northern Illinois

6-0

10-0

104.8

107.4

105.8

Toledo

5-1

7-3

101.5

103.7

102.7

Ball St.

6-1

9-2

100.0

103.3

100.8

Central Michigan

3-3

4-6

82.4

84.7

82.0

Western Michigan

1-6

1-10

75.6

77.5

75.5

Eastern Michigan

1-5

2-8

71.1

73.7

70.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.7

90.5

88.0

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Boise St.

5-1

7-3

105.2

101.9

106.6

Utah St.

5-1

6-4

105.1

103.3

106.6

Colorado St.

4-2

6-5

96.3

96.3

97.2

Wyoming

2-4

4-6

85.6

86.7

86.3

New Mexico

1-5

3-7

81.3

85.0

81.9

Air Force

0-6

2-8

79.3

82.7

79.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

6-0

9-0

106.7

106.4

106.3

San Jose St.

4-3

5-5

95.8

93.4

96.2

San Diego St.

5-1

6-4

93.7

92.7

94.2

U N L V

3-3

5-5

87.2

88.8

87.8

Nevada

3-5

4-7

85.9

87.5

85.9

Hawaii

0-7

0-10

83.0

83.2

83.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

92.1

92.3

92.6

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

6-1

9-1

133.1

129.6

133.7

Stanford

6-2

8-2

126.0

119.0

125.4

Washington

3-4

6-4

119.7

115.6

119.1

Oregon St.

4-3

6-4

115.4

108.0

113.7

Washington St.

3-4

5-5

104.0

103.1

104.8

California

0-8

1-10

89.5

85.7

87.5

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona St.

6-1

8-2

124.0

123.1

123.6

U S C

5-2

8-3

119.1

115.8

119.1

U C L A

5-2

8-2

119.1

114.5

118.1

Arizona

3-4

6-4

111.9

108.3

110.1

Utah

1-6

4-6

110.3

108.1

110.4

Colorado

1-6

4-6

89.9

90.2

88.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.5

110.1

112.8

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Missouri

5-1

9-1

123.8

122.0

123.2

South Carolina

6-2

8-2

119.1

116.5

118.0

Georgia

4-3

6-4

115.0

112.8

114.5

Florida

3-5

4-6

112.4

109.5

111.2

Vanderbilt

3-4

6-4

108.2

106.5

108.0

Tennessee

1-5

4-6

102.2

101.1

101.1

Kentucky

0-6

2-8

98.2

97.0

98.4

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

7-0

10-0

136.5

132.7

137.2

L S U

3-3

7-3

122.6

120.4

123.1

Texas A&M

4-2

8-2

121.5

119.3

121.3

Ole Miss

3-3

7-3

119.3

116.3

118.6

Auburn

6-1

10-1

119.1

118.4

119.2

Mississippi St.

1-5

4-6

108.2

105.8

108.6

Arkansas

0-6

3-7

95.9

98.3

94.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.4

112.6

114.1

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

5-0

8-2

93.3

95.0

93.6

Arkansas St.

4-1

6-4

93.2

92.5

93.3

Western Kentucky

2-3

6-4

89.6

91.9

89.7

Louisiana–Monroe

3-2

5-5

86.1

86.9

86.1

South Alabama

1-3

3-6

85.9

88.7

86.3

Troy

3-3

5-6

83.2

85.8

84.2

Texas St.

2-3

6-4

82.1

86.6

82.3

Georgia St.

0-5

0-10

64.8

70.5

66.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

84.8

87.2

85.2

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Old Dominion

 

8-3

85.7

87.2

92.0

Georgia Southern

 

6-3

82.9

85.3

90.0

Appalachian St.

 

2-8

73.4

72.3

80.1

Charlotte

 

4-6

57.2

61.8

64.3

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

74.8

76.7

81.6

 

This Week’s Spreads

Date:

November 19-23, 2013

   

 

 

 

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami (O) Buffalo

-26.7

-25.8

-29.5

Ohio Kent St.

5.3

5.8

5.4

Toledo Northern Illinois

-0.3

-0.7

-0.1

Central Florida Rutgers

16.5

16.9

17.7

U A B Rice

-18.3

-20.2

-20.1

Air Force U N L V

-4.9

-3.1

-5.7

San Jose St. Navy

2.5

-1.7

2.5

Stanford California

39.0

35.8

40.4

Arizona Oregon

-18.2

-18.3

-20.6

U C L A Arizona St.

-1.9

-5.6

-2.5

Colorado U S C

-26.2

-22.6

-27.7

Northwestern Michigan St.

-8.9

-11.9

-8.7

Kansas St. Oklahoma

1.2

-1.1

0.9

Louisville Memphis

26.3

20.7

26.1

Miami (Fla) Virginia

24.7

24.0

24.7

Wake Forest Duke

-4.4

-3.0

-3.5

Houston Cincinnati

-1.7

5.2

0.1

Iowa Michigan

-2.0

-2.8

-0.7

Purdue Illinois

-7.8

-11.9

-9.8

Arkansas Mississippi St.

-9.3

-4.5

-10.9

North Carolina St. East Carolina

-13.0

-11.6

-13.4

Syracuse Pittsburgh

1.5

2.1

1.1

Central Michigan Massachusetts

12.1

9.4

11.6

Eastern Michigan Bowling Green

-30.8

-29.1

-32.7

Wyoming Hawaii

6.6

7.5

6.7

Arkansas St. Georgia St.

31.4

25.0

30.2

Florida Atlantic New Mexico St.

21.5

18.9

22.7

Florida St. Idaho

71.6

71.7

73.7

Ohio St. Indiana

29.8

27.1

30.5

L S U Texas A&M

4.1

4.1

4.8

Minnesota Wisconsin

-14.2

-14.9

-15.4

Notre Dame B Y U

-1.2

-2.1

-3.9

Maryland Boston College

-1.7

0.4

-1.7

Penn St. Nebraska

-4.1

-1.9

-4.0

North Texas U T S A

11.8

12.5

13.2

Washington St. Utah

-3.3

-3.0

-2.6

Utah St. Colorado St.

11.8

10.0

12.4

Southern Miss. Middle Tennessee

-21.8

-26.6

-23.9

Tulane U T E P

11.4

12.7

12.4

Fresno St. New Mexico

28.4

24.4

27.4

Florida Int’l Marshall

-32.1

-33.5

-34.1

Georgia Kentucky

19.8

18.8

19.1

South Alabama UL-Monroe

2.3

4.3

2.7

South Florida S M U

-5.5

-9.6

-5.5

Temple Connecticut

8.1

13.2

8.5

Texas St. Western Kentucky

-4.5

-2.3

-4.4

Louisiana Tech Tulsa

-4.0

-1.2

-3.6

Tennessee Vanderbilt

-3.0

-2.4

-3.9

Ole Miss Missouri

-1.5

-2.7

-1.6

Oklahoma St. Baylor

-3.7

-5.2

-5.5

Iowa St. Kansas

1.2

-2.5

0.2

San Diego St. Boise St.

-8.5

-6.2

-9.4

Oregon St. Washington

-1.3

-4.6

-2.4

 

PiRate Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Colorado St.

vs.

Oregon St.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Boise St.

vs.

U C L A

Famous Idaho Potato

Arizona *

vs.

Toledo

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Tulane

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

Western Kentucky *

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Hawai’i

San Diego St.

vs.

Rice

Little Caesars Pizza

Ball St.

vs.

Texas St. *

Poinsettia

Utah St.

vs.

Washington St. *

Military Bowl

Georgia Tech

vs.

Marshall

Texas

Michigan

vs.

Kansas St.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Washington

vs.

B Y U %

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

Notre Dame *

Belk

Cincinnati

vs.

Maryland

Russell Athletic

Louisville

vs.

Miami

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Texas

vs.

Iowa

Armed Forces

U N L V

vs.

Navy %

Music City

Syracuse

vs.

Georgia

Alamo

Oklahoma

vs.

Stanford

Holiday

Texas Tech

vs.

Arizona St.

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Buffalo *

vs.

North Carolina

Sun

Virginia Tech

vs.

U S C

Liberty

Tennessee

vs.

East Carolina

Chick-fil-A

Duke

vs.

Texas A&M

Heart Of Dallas

North Texas

vs.

Bowling Green *

Gator

Minnesota

vs.

Ole Miss

Outback

South Carolina

vs.

Nebraska

Capital One

Wisconsin

vs.

Missouri

Rose

Michigan St.

vs.

Oregon

Fiesta

Oklahoma St.

vs.

Fresno St.

Sugar

Auburn

vs.

Central Florida

Cotton

L S U

vs.

Baylor

Orange

Ohio St.

vs.

Clemson

BBVA Compass Bowl

Houston

vs.

Vanderbilt

GoDaddy.com

Arkansas St.

vs.

Northern Illinois

BCS Championship

Alabama

vs.

Florida St.

 

 

 

 

* At-Large Selection

 

 

 

% Already Accepted Bid

 

 

 

Bowl-Eligible Teams Left Out      
Boston College

 

 

 

Central Michigan

 

 

 

Florida Atlantic

 

 

 

Ohio

 

 

 

Pittsburgh

 

 

 

Troy

 

 

 

U T S A

 

 

 

 

November 11, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–November 12-16, 2013

Big Week Ahead

For the rabid fan of college football in general, this is the best week of the season to date.  There may not be as many marquee games as last week, but overall there are more meaningful games in this week’s schedule than any other week to this point.

 

Here is an abridged version of what we are calling key games.

 

AAC

Cincinnati (4-1/7-2) at Rutgers (2-2/5-3)

Quietly, Tommy Tuberville has the Bearcats in contention in the AAC.  While we do not believe UC can win the league, this game is crucial in bowl priorities.  The winner will have the advantage over the loser for the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium, while the loser could be looking at Birmingham.

 

Houston (4-1/7-2) at Louisville (4-1/8-1)

The horse is already out of the barn for these two teams, as they need Central Florida to lose twice to have a shot at winning the league’s BCS Bowl bid.  Still, this is an important game for possible second place in the AAC.  It should be an interesting game as well.

 

ACC

Georgia Tech (5-2/6-3) at Clemson (6-1/8-1)

The underdog is the team still in the race for the league title game.  Georgia Tech now finds itself in the lead in the ACC Coastal Division by a half-game over Virginia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets must win this game to have a chance to take the division title, and they need for Miami and Virginia Tech to lose or one of those teams to lose, while Duke wins out.  Ga. Tech loses in head-to-head tiebreakers with the Hurricanes and Hokies, but they hold the tiebreaker over Duke.

 

Clemson can win out at 11-1, and the best the Tigers can probably hope for is a return visit to Atlanta for the Chick-fil-A Bowl.  Florida St. has already clinched the Atlantic Division title.

 

Syracuse (3-2/5-4) at Florida St. (7-0/9-0)

Could this be a trap game for the Seminoles?  On paper, it looks like another possible 49-10 type of game.  At the extreme, most experts cannot see this game being any closer than 17-20 points.

 

But, and there is a big one here, Syracuse’s defense has come to life in a big way, and the players are really confident that they can stop anybody.  Yes, the great stands came against inferior offenses, but SU will go into this game believing it can force turnover on FSU and keep the Seminoles from scoring 35 points in the first 20 minutes of the game, like they have in recent weeks.

 

We believe this game will be important for more other reasons.  From this game, Alabama will learn a lot about what works and what does not against the ‘Nole offense.  Additionally, Syracuse will find some holes up front in the FSU defense, and these vulnerabilities will be exploitable by the Crimson Tide running game if these two powers meet for all the marbles.

 

Boston College (2-3/5-4) at North Carolina St. (0-6/3-6)

This is a big trap game for the Eagles, as the Wolfpack must go 3-0 to get back to a bowl.  Boston College could be in jeopardy of going to a bowl if they lose this game.  At 6-6, BC would lose out to almost any other 6-6 team in the ACC if there was just one bowl bid left to give out, because they have not travelled well to recent bowl games.  Also, if there is an at-large spot out there, the Eagles can forget being invited at 6-6, because there will be a surplus of 7-win teams needing at-large invitations.

 

North Carolina (3-3/4-5) at Pittsburgh (2-3/5-4)

This is purely and simply a bowl-elimination game.  The loser of this contest has a razor’s edge chance of earning a bowl invitation, even if they recover to finish 6-6.  The ACC is going to have more bowl-eligible teams than they have bowl allotments, and 6-6 may not be good enough to garner a bid.

 

North Carolina is this year’s version of Rice.  The Tar Heels were 1-5 and have no won three in a row with an excellent chance of running the table to 7-5 or finishing 6-6.

 

Pittsburgh now has a rather substantial win over Notre Dame on its resume, and a win here makes the Panthers a strong bowl-eligible 6-4 with a good chance for at least a 7-5 finish.  In the ACC, if either school is 7-5, that team will definitely go bowling.

 

It is not totally impossible that UNC could still sneak up and win the division.  If Duke wins its next two games, and Georgia Tech loses to Clemson this week, and Virginia Tech loses one more game, the Tar Heels will be playing Duke for the ACC Coastal Division flag.

 

Maryland (1-4/5-4) at Virginia Tech (4-2/7-3)

Virginia Tech recovered from the unexpected two-game losing streak to knock off Miami and throw the Coastal Division race wide open.  The Hokies have the best chance at winning the division, and they will do so at 6-2 if Duke loses a game.  A loss here probably eliminates them from the race.

 

As for Maryland, the Terps have tanked since September.  What looked like a for sure bowl team thanks to a very week schedule, UM now is on the verge of playing itself to bubble status and even possibly to a 5-7 record.  Coach Randy Edsall may have been a mistake hire in College Park, and the fans and media have turned against him.  A loss in this game coupled with a loss to Boston College or North Carolina St. probably keeps Maryland at home for the holidays and possibly sends Edsall on his way out of town.

 

Miami (3-2/7-2) at Duke (3-2/7-2)

Are you kiddin’ me?  Duke, the perennial doormat of the ACC, can be in the driver’s seat to win the Coastal Division title by beating Miami this week?  If the Blue Devils beat the Hurricanes, and Georgia Tech loses to Clemson, then that is indeed the case, because Duke will control its own destiny with remaining games against Wake Forest and North Carolina.

 

Miami still has a shot at recovering to meet Florida St. in a rematch in Charlotte.  The Hurricanes are hurting though, and we are not sure they have the manpower to recover fully.  The final game at Pittsburgh looks like a tough trap game, and the “U” must finish ahead of Virginia Tech in the standings to win the division.  We say, it will not happen.

 

 

Big Ten

Michigan St. (5-0/8-1) at Nebraska (4-1/7-2)

Two weeks ago, Nebraska looked dead in the Legends Division race after losing to Minnesota.  With a road game at Michigan, it was merely a formality that the Cornhuskers would be eliminated from the race.  However, the the Black Shirt Defense re-emerged to knock the Wolverines out of the race, and now this game should decide it all.

 

Michigan St. benefits from an extra week of preparation, and Coach Mark Dantonio should have his Spartans prepared to win on the road.  If Michigan St. continues to play with the same enthusiasm, confidence, and poise that it has in recent weeks, this Spartan team is more than capable of winning at Lincoln and knocking off Ohio St. in the Big Ten title game.

 

Michigan (2-3/6-3) at Northwestern (0-5/4-5)

Six weeks ago, this looked like a pivotal game in the Legends Division race.  Today it is pivotal for Northwestern.  The Wildcats began the season 4-0, and in game five, they were in contention to beat Ohio St. before some late shenanigans cost them the game.  NU never recovered, and the losing streak has extended to five straight.  If this one is the sixth, then you can stick a fork in their bowl chances.

 

Michigan is bowl eligible, but the Wolverines expected more.  Short of upsetting Ohio St., this can only be a major disappointment.  UM has not returned to the top like most fans expected they would under Brady Hoke.  The once unstoppable ground game is now laughable, and a loss Saturday might be enough for the fans to start calling for the hook on Hoke.

 

Baylor (5-0/8-0) vs. Texas Tech (4-3/7-3) at Arlington, TX

Baylor needs to jump three teams in the BCS standings to make it to the National Championship Game, but we cannot see that happening.  Chances are better that the Bears will lose a game rather than win out, and a loss could drop them all the way to the Cotton Bowl.

 

This game at one time might have given the Bears a chance to move ahead of a Stanford or Ohio St. in the standings, but Texas Tech has dropped three games in a row.  Still, this is a must-win for BU.  They need a USC upset of Stanford, an Ohio St. loss to Michigan St. in the Big Ten Championship Game, and then a monumental upset of either Florida St. or Alabama.  Assuming Baylor can run the table, the chances for the rest of the dominoes to fall are about 5%.

 

 

Big 12

Oklahoma St. (5-1/8-1) at Texas (6-0/7-2)

Texas was given up for dead after being embarrassed in consecutive games with Ole Miss and BYU.  However, these were not league games, and the Longhorns have righted the ship with a 6-0 league mark.

 

Oklahoma St. has not been a juggernaut like recent editions, but the Cowboys too have appeared to have gotten on track.

 

The winner of this game becomes Baylor’s competition for the conference championship.  The Bears must still play both teams, and the winner of this game will earn the Fiesta Bowl bid if they can also beat the Bears.

 

It appears to us that if either Fresno St. or Northern Illinois automatically qualifies for a BCS Bowl bid, the Big 12 will place just one team in BCS Bowls, and the runner-up will have to settle for some cotton.

 

 

Pac-12

Washington (3-3/6-3) at UCLA (4-2/7-2)

The Huskies are playing for bowl status, hoping to stay ahead of most of the Pac-12 South teams, and a win here keeps them in contention for the Holiday Bowl.

 

UCLA is in a heated battle with USC and Arizona St. for the South Division flag.  A loss here will be devastating.  The Bruins must still play both ASU and USC.  All of a sudden, Rose Bowl aspirations look so much easier than they did a week ago.

 

Stanford (6-1/8-1) at USC (4-2/7-3)

Any football fan can see that the Cardinal are riding into an ambush in a major trap game.  Southern Cal is loose with nothing to lose, while Stanford must win to stay ahead of Oregon in the North Division.

 

USC is still very much alive in the Pac-12 South race.  The Trojans are 4-1 since Lane Kiffin was let go, and that one loss was a narrow one at Notre Dame.  If USC wins this game, interim coach Ed Orgeron might actually move to the top of the list in the search for the next full-time coach.  Coach O can recruit with the best of them, so it isn’t impossible.

 

Of course, a loss here coupled with a loss to UCLA, and Coach O will be on the go.

 

Oregon St. (4-2/6-3) at Arizona St. (5-1/7-2)

Arizona St. narrowly escaped the upset bug at Utah Saturday night, while Oregon St. benefitted by having a week off to try to regroup.  This leads to this game becoming much tighter and more competitive.

 

Arizona St. controls its own destiny as the South Division leader, but the Sun Devils have tough games left to play at UCLA and at home against rival Arizona.  Of course, ASU holds the tiebreaker over USC if the two finish tied.  Lane Kiffin can tell you that.

 

SEC

Georgia (4-2/6-3) at Auburn (5-1/9-1)

My how the season has shifted!  Two months ago, this game looked like a pivotal November contest for Georgia.  Now, it is the other way around.  Auburn has a decent shot at earning a BCS Bowl.  If the Tigers win this week and then give Alabama a competitive game, Auburn looks like a shoo-in for either the Sugar or Orange Bowl, assuming Alabama runs the table.

 

Georgia is trying to avoid having to play in December during bowl season.  A win on the plains will give them a major leg up for the Gator, Outback, or Cotton Bowl.  A loss puts the Bulldogs in danger of falling below the Gator Bowl.  Since Clemson is likely to be invited to Atlanta, Georgia will be skipped for the Chick-fil-A bowl and fall all the way to Nashville if they fail to beat Georgia Tech.

 

Florida (3-4/4-5) at South Carolina (5-2/7-2)

This is a crucial game for both teams.  South Carolina becomes the leader in the clubhouse with a win in this conference finale.  The Gamecocks are the only impediment in Missouri’s way to the East Division title.  If the two finish tied for first, USC wins the tiebreaker.  Even if Missouri wins out, South Carolina needs a 10-2 finish to have a shot at the Capital One or Cotton Bowl.

 

As for Florida, this is the end of the road if they lose.  The Gators must win this week to have a shot at bowl eligibility.  They could upset Florida St. in the finale.  That “could” is not much different than saying you “could” win the Megamillions lottery this week.

 

If The Gators finish 5-7, Coach Will Muschamp will need a lot of generosity to retain his job in a state where Florida St., Miami, and Central Florida are improving and getting some great in-state recruits.

 

MAC

Ohio (3-2/6-3) at Bowling Green (4-1/6-3)

BGU remains alive in the MAC East hunt, while only a miracle could give Ohio the division title.  This game is more important in bowl implications.  The MAC has three guaranteed bowl bids, but there will be as many as seven bowl eligible teams.  The loser of this game more than likely falls out of the race for the three guaranteed spots and has to begin sweating it as an at-large candidate

 

Buffalo (5-0/7-2) at Toledo (4-1/6-3)

This could be the first of two times these teams face off.  Buffalo is in the driver’s seat in the MAC East, and they Bulls host Bowling Green in a couple weeks.  A BU win in this game basically eliminates Ohio from the MAC East race.

 

Toledo is the third place team in the MAC West as of today, but a win here allows the rockets to host Northern Illinois with the division title up for grabs.  TU is tough to beat at the glass bowl, and they are getting better every week.  This should be a great one to watch midweek.

 

Ball St. (6-0/9-1) at Northern Illinois (5-0/9-0)

Make no bones about it, this is the key MAC game of the year.  The winner goes into undisputed first place in the West, and if the Huskies win, they stay alive for a second consecutive BCS Bowl invitation.

 

These two teams have enough talent to beat teams like Georgia, Texas Tech, Michigan, and Arizona this year, but they are not in the class of teams like Auburn, Michigan St., Oklahoma St., and Stanford.

 

If Ball St. wins, the Cardinals help out the big conferences while virtually assuring that they will be the MAC West champs.  You want to watch this one for sure.

 

 

MWC

Fresno St. has a week off, and thus, there are no real key games in the league.  The Bulldogs wiped Wyoming off the field in Laramie after spotting the Cowboys a 10-0 lead.  FSU closes with New Mexico at home and San Jose St. on the road, two games that should not be much of a challenge.  A possible rematch with Boise St. in the conference championship appears to be the only hurdle this team needs to topple before punching a ticket to the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl.

 

CUSA

This is a calm week for this league.  In the east, East Carolina gets an easy one against UAB, and Marshall plays at a wounded Tulsa team headed nowhere.

 

In the West, North Texas is in the driver’s seat.  The Mean Green have an off week before hosting UTSA and finishing at Tulsa.  Coach Dan McCarney’s name will be bantered about when bigger schools look to fill coaching vacancies next month.

 

SBC

UL-Lafayette has been close in recent years, but 2013 looks like the year they win the SBC title.  The Ragin’ Cajuns should run roughshod over winless Georgia St. this week, and then they will have an extra week to prepare for the conference clincher when they host UL-Monroe on November 30.

 

Texas St. (2-2/6-3) at Arkansas St. (3-1/5-4)

This game serves as a sort of playoff game for the league’s second bowl bid.  Texas St. is already bowl eligible, but they need this win to guarantee that second bid.  The Bobcats could still get an at-large invitation as long as they win one more game.

 

Arkansas St, still has some work to do to guarantee a bowl bid.  A win here coupled with a win over what should be 0-10 Georgia St. next week, will do the trick.  It really does not matter if ASU finished behind Western Kentucky, because the Hilltoppers will most likely be shunned when the league places its teams in bowls.  WKU is leaving the league, and the SBC punished an eight-win Middle Tennessee team last year for the same reason.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

137.6

2

Oregon

134.0

3

Florida St.

133.6

4

Baylor

129.7

5

Ohio St.

128.2

6

Stanford

127.8

7

Missouri

123.8

8

Arizona St.

123.4

9

L S U

122.6

10

Texas A&M

121.5

11

Oklahoma St.

121.4

12

Washington

121.0

13

Wisconsin

120.6

14

Clemson

120.2

15

South Carolina

119.6

16

Auburn

119.0

17

Michigan St.

118.9

18

Ole Miss

118.9

19

Texas

118.0

20

U C L A

117.3

21

U S C

116.6

22

Oregon St.

116.0

23

Georgia

115.1

24

Louisville

114.8

25

Oklahoma

114.7

26

Kansas St.

114.6

27

B Y U

114.6

28

Arizona

114.5

29

Miami

113.1

30

Nebraska

112.9

31

Georgia Tech

112.1

32

Florida

111.9

33

Michigan

111.7

34

Notre Dame

110.7

35

Virginia Tech

109.7

36

Utah

109.0

37

Central Florida

108.6

38

Northwestern

108.6

39

Texas Tech

108.3

40

Vanderbilt

107.9

41

Mississippi St.

107.1

42

Iowa

106.8

43

Fresno St.

106.7

44

North Carolina

106.5

45

Minnesota

106.4

46

T C U

106.1

47

Boise St.

105.2

48

Utah St.

105.1

49

Indiana

104.7

50

East Carolina

104.5

51

Penn St.

104.1

52

Cincinnati

103.9

53

Northern Illinois

103.3

54

West Virginia

103.0

55

Duke

102.6

56

Tennessee

102.2

57

Houston

102.0

58

Washington St.

101.9

59

Ball St.

101.2

60

Bowling Green

101.2

61

Boston College

101.1

62

Syracuse

100.9

63

Pittsburgh

100.9

64

Buffalo

100.5

65

Toledo

100.4

66

Marshall

100.4

67

North Texas

99.7

68

Kentucky

98.5

69

Wake Forest

98.3

70

Illinois

97.0

71

Colorado St.

96.3

72

Rice

96.2

73

Rutgers

95.9

74

Arkansas

95.9

75

San Jose St.

95.8

76

Louisiana–Lafayette

95.4

77

Navy

95.3

78

Maryland

95.2

79

S M U

94.8

80

San Diego St.

93.7

81

Iowa St.

93.3

82

Arkansas St.

93.0

83

Ohio

92.6

84

Kansas

92.1

85

California

91.6

86

North Carolina St.

91.4

87

U T S A

90.4

88

Memphis

89.9

89

Western Kentucky

89.6

90

Virginia

89.1

91

Florida Atlantic

89.0

92

Middle Tennessee

88.4

93

South Florida

87.8

94

Colorado

87.8

95

Tulane

87.5

96

South Alabama

87.4

97

U N L V

87.2

98

Purdue

87.2

99

Temple

87.1

100

Tulsa

86.2

101

Louisiana–Monroe

86.1

102

Kent St.

86.0

103

Nevada

85.9

104

Wyoming

85.6

105

Connecticut

83.8

106

Troy

83.3

107

Akron

83.3

108

Hawaii

83.0

109

Central Michigan

82.7

110

Texas St.

82.3

111

Army

82.0

112

Louisiana Tech

81.3

113

New Mexico

81.3

114

U A B

79.3

115

Air Force

79.3

116

U T E P

78.1

117

Western Michigan

75.3

118

New Mexico St.

72.7

119

Massachusetts

72.3

120

Miami (O)

71.6

121

Eastern Michigan

71.1

122

Idaho

68.1

123

Southern Miss.

67.6

124

Florida Int’l

66.9

125

Georgia St.

63.3

 

 

PiRate Mean

1

Florida St.

137.8

2

Alabama

134.1

3

Oregon

130.5

4

Ohio St.

127.2

5

Arizona St.

123.0

6

Baylor

122.8

7

Missouri

122.0

8

Clemson

121.5

9

Wisconsin

121.3

10

Stanford

120.6

11

L S U

120.4

12

Michigan St.

119.6

13

Texas A&M

119.3

14

Auburn

118.7

15

South Carolina

117.1

16

Washington

117.1

17

Ole Miss

115.9

18

Miami

114.3

19

Louisville

113.6

20

U S C

113.5

21

B Y U

113.4

22

Oklahoma St.

113.2

23

U C L A

112.5

24

Georgia

112.5

25

Central Florida

111.9

26

Michigan

111.7

27

Georgia Tech

111.6

28

Nebraska

111.2

29

Arizona

110.8

30

Virginia Tech

110.2

31

Texas

109.9

32

Oklahoma

109.9

33

Houston

109.4

34

Florida

108.9

35

Notre Dame

108.6

36

North Carolina

108.4

37

Oregon St.

108.1

38

Kansas St.

107.4

39

Utah

106.8

40

Minnesota

106.6

41

Indiana

106.6

42

Fresno St.

106.4

43

East Carolina

106.3

44

Northwestern

106.2

45

Iowa

106.0

46

Northern Illinois

105.6

47

Vanderbilt

105.4

48

Penn St.

104.9

49

Ball St.

104.8

50

Mississippi St.

104.4

51

Marshall

103.9

52

Duke

103.8

53

Cincinnati

103.8

54

Texas Tech

103.8

55

Utah St.

103.3

56

Buffalo

102.9

57

North Texas

102.4

58

Toledo

102.3

59

Boise St.

101.9

60

Bowling Green

101.8

61

Boston College

101.7

62

Washington St.

101.1

63

Tennessee

101.1

64

Wake Forest

101.1

65

Syracuse

100.7

66

T C U

100.5

67

Pittsburgh

99.9

68

Rutgers

98.9

69

Rice

98.8

70

Illinois

98.8

71

Maryland

98.7

72

Arkansas

98.3

73

Kentucky

98.1

74

Louisiana–Lafayette

96.9

75

Navy

96.8

76

S M U

96.5

77

Colorado St.

96.3

78

Ohio

96.2

79

West Virginia

96.1

80

Memphis

95.4

81

North Carolina St.

95.3

82

San Jose St.

93.4

83

Middle Tennessee

93.2

84

San Diego St.

92.7

85

U T S A

92.4

86

Western Kentucky

91.9

87

Arkansas St.

91.2

88

Tulane

90.9

89

Virginia

90.8

90

Florida Atlantic

90.5

91

South Alabama

90.5

92

U N L V

88.8

93

Colorado

88.6

94

Temple

88.5

95

Kent St.

88.5

96

Kansas

87.9

97

Texas St.

87.9

98

Nevada

87.5

99

Army

87.5

100

California

87.3

101

Akron

87.0

102

Louisiana–Monroe

86.9

103

Wyoming

86.7

104

Troy

85.9

105

Central Michigan

85.4

106

Tulsa

85.4

107

Iowa St.

85.2

108

New Mexico

85.0

109

Purdue

84.7

110

South Florida

84.4

111

Louisiana Tech

83.6

112

Hawaii

83.2

113

Air Force

82.7

114

U A B

80.4

115

Connecticut

80.1

116

U T E P

79.9

117

Massachusetts

77.3

118

Western Michigan

76.8

119

New Mexico St.

75.8

120

Miami (O)

74.9

121

Eastern Michigan

73.7

122

Idaho

72.0

123

Florida Int’l

69.2

124

Georgia St.

69.2

125

Southern Miss.

67.6

 

 

PiRate Bias

1

Alabama

138.9

2

Florida St.

135.6

3

Oregon

134.9

4

Baylor

131.6

5

Ohio St.

128.4

6

Stanford

127.3

7

Arizona St.

123.3

8

Missouri

123.2

9

L S U

123.1

10

Wisconsin

121.7

11

Oklahoma St.

121.4

12

Texas A&M

121.3

13

Clemson

121.3

14

Washington

120.8

15

Auburn

119.1

16

South Carolina

118.7

17

Michigan St.

118.3

18

Ole Miss

118.2

19

Texas

116.9

20

U S C

116.5

21

U C L A

115.9

22

B Y U

115.6

23

Louisville

115.5

24

Georgia

114.6

25

Kansas St.

114.1

26

Oklahoma

114.0

27

Oregon St.

114.0

28

Miami

113.2

29

Arizona

112.8

30

Georgia Tech

112.2

31

Nebraska

111.9

32

Michigan

110.7

33

Florida

110.5

34

Central Florida

109.8

35

Virginia Tech

109.4

36

Notre Dame

109.0

37

Utah

108.8

38

Northwestern

108.4

39

Texas Tech

107.7

40

North Carolina

107.4

41

Vanderbilt

107.3

42

Iowa

107.1

43

Mississippi St.

106.9

44

Boise St.

106.6

45

Utah St.

106.6

46

Minnesota

106.4

47

Fresno St.

106.3

48

T C U

105.3

49

East Carolina

104.9

50

Indiana

104.3

51

Northern Illinois

103.9

52

Cincinnati

103.5

53

Houston

103.4

54

Penn St.

103.0

55

Washington St.

102.6

56

Ball St.

102.4

57

West Virginia

102.3

58

Duke

102.1

59

Buffalo

102.1

60

Boston College

102.0

61

Marshall

101.7

62

Bowling Green

101.7

63

Toledo

101.4

64

Tennessee

101.1

65

Pittsburgh

101.0

66

North Texas

100.9

67

Syracuse

100.3

68

Kentucky

99.1

69

Wake Forest

98.8

70

Colorado St.

97.2

71

Rice

96.5

72

Illinois

96.5

73

Maryland

96.3

74

San Jose St.

96.2

75

Rutgers

96.0

76

Louisiana–Lafayette

95.9

77

Navy

95.4

78

Arkansas

94.7

79

San Diego St.

94.2

80

S M U

94.1

81

Ohio

93.2

82

Arkansas St.

92.8

83

North Carolina St.

92.1

84

Iowa St.

92.1

85

Kansas

91.4

86

Memphis

90.4

87

U T S A

90.2

88

California

90.0

89

Florida Atlantic

89.8

90

Western Kentucky

89.7

91

Middle Tennessee

89.4

92

Virginia

89.1

93

South Alabama

88.1

94

Tulane

87.9

95

U N L V

87.8

96

South Florida

87.5

97

Temple

86.8

98

Kent St.

86.4

99

Wyoming

86.3

100

Louisiana–Monroe

86.1

101

Nevada

85.9

102

Colorado

85.9

103

Tulsa

85.2

104

Purdue

84.7

105

Troy

84.3

106

Akron

84.1

107

Hawaii

83.6

108

Connecticut

83.4

109

Army

83.4

110

Texas St.

82.8

111

Central Michigan

82.2

112

New Mexico

81.9

113

Louisiana Tech

81.0

114

Air Force

79.1

115

U A B

78.6

116

U T E P

76.8

117

Western Michigan

75.3

118

New Mexico St.

72.6

119

Massachusetts

72.0

120

Eastern Michigan

70.0

121

Miami (O)

70.0

122

Idaho

67.9

123

Florida Int’l

67.0

124

Southern Miss.

66.8

125

Georgia St.

64.4

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

4-1

8-1

114.8

113.6

115.5

Central Florida

4-0

7-1

108.6

111.9

109.8

Cincinnati

4-1

7-2

103.9

103.8

103.5

Houston

4-1

7-2

102.0

109.4

103.4

Rutgers

2-2

5-3

95.9

98.9

96.0

S M U

2-2

3-5

94.8

96.5

94.1

Memphis

0-4

2-6

89.9

95.4

90.4

South Florida

2-2

2-6

87.8

84.4

87.5

Temple

0-5

1-8

87.1

88.5

86.8

Connecticut

0-4

0-8

83.8

80.1

83.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.9

98.3

97.0

 

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Florida St.

7-0

9-0

133.6

137.8

135.6

Clemson

6-1

8-1

120.2

121.5

121.3

Boston College

2-3

5-4

101.1

101.7

102.0

Syracuse

3-2

5-4

100.9

100.7

100.3

Wake Forest

2-5

4-6

98.3

101.1

98.8

Maryland

1-4

5-4

95.2

98.7

96.3

North Carolina St.

0-6

3-6

91.4

95.3

92.1

     

 

 

 

Coastal Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Miami

3-2

7-2

113.1

114.3

113.2

Georgia Tech

5-2

6-3

112.1

111.6

112.2

Virginia Tech

4-2

7-3

109.7

110.2

109.4

North Carolina

3-3

4-5

106.5

108.4

107.4

Duke

3-2

7-2

102.6

103.8

102.1

Pittsburgh

2-3

5-4

100.9

99.9

101.0

Virginia

0-6

2-8

89.1

90.8

89.1

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

105.3

106.8

105.8

 

 

Big 12 Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Baylor

5-0

8-0

129.7

122.8

131.6

Oklahoma St.

5-1

8-1

121.4

113.2

121.4

Texas

6-0

7-2

118.0

109.9

116.9

Oklahoma

4-2

7-2

114.7

109.9

114.0

Kansas St.

3-3

5-4

114.6

107.4

114.1

Texas Tech

4-3

7-3

108.3

103.8

107.7

T C U

2-5

4-6

106.1

100.5

105.3

West Virginia

2-5

4-6

103.0

96.1

102.3

Iowa St.

0-6

1-8

93.3

85.2

92.1

Kansas

0-6

2-7

92.1

87.9

91.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

110.1

103.7

109.7

 

 

Big Ten Conference

Leaders Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Ohio St.

5-0

9-0

128.2

127.2

128.4

Wisconsin

4-1

7-2

120.6

121.3

121.7

Indiana

2-3

4-5

104.7

106.6

104.3

Penn St.

2-3

5-4

104.1

104.9

103.0

Illinois

0-5

3-6

97.0

98.8

96.5

Purdue

0-5

1-8

87.2

84.7

84.7

     

 

 

 

Legends Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Michigan St.

5-0

8-1

118.9

119.6

118.3

Nebraska

4-1

7-2

112.9

111.2

111.9

Michigan

2-3

6-3

111.7

111.7

110.7

Northwestern

0-5

4-5

108.6

106.2

108.4

Iowa

3-3

6-4

106.8

106.0

107.1

Minnesota

4-2

8-2

106.4

106.6

106.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

108.9

108.7

108.5

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

East Carolina

5-1

7-2

104.5

106.3

104.9

Marshall

4-1

6-3

100.4

103.9

101.7

Florida Atlantic

2-4

3-6

89.0

90.5

89.8

Middle Tennessee

4-2

6-4

88.4

93.2

89.4

U A B

1-4

2-7

79.3

80.4

78.6

Southern Miss.

0-5

0-9

67.6

67.6

66.8

Florida Int’l

1-4

1-8

66.9

69.2

67.0

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

North Texas

5-1

7-3

99.7

102.4

100.9

Rice

4-1

6-3

96.2

98.8

96.5

U T S A

4-2

5-5

90.4

92.4

90.2

Tulane

4-2

6-4

87.5

90.9

87.9

Tulsa

1-4

2-7

86.2

85.4

85.2

Louisiana Tech

3-2

4-5

81.3

83.6

81.0

U T E P

0-5

1-8

78.1

79.9

76.8

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

86.8

88.9

86.9

 

 

Independents

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

B Y U

 

6-3

114.6

113.4

115.6

Notre Dame

 

7-3

110.7

108.6

109.0

Navy

 

5-4

95.3

96.8

95.4

Army

 

3-7

82.0

87.5

83.4

Idaho

 

1-9

68.1

72.0

67.9

New Mexico St.

 

1-9

72.7

75.8

72.6

     

 

 

 

Independent Avg’s.

 

 

90.6

92.4

90.7

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green

4-1

6-3

101.2

101.8

101.7

Buffalo

5-0

7-2

100.5

102.9

102.1

Ohio

3-2

6-3

92.6

96.2

93.2

Kent St.

1-5

2-8

86.0

88.5

86.4

Akron

2-4

3-7

83.3

87.0

84.1

Massachusetts

1-4

1-8

72.3

77.3

72.0

Miami (O)

0-5

0-9

71.6

74.9

70.0

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Northern Illinois

5-0

9-0

103.3

105.6

103.9

Ball St.

6-0

9-1

101.2

104.8

102.4

Toledo

4-1

6-3

100.4

102.3

101.4

Central Michigan

2-3

3-6

82.7

85.4

82.2

Western Michigan

1-5

1-9

75.3

76.8

75.3

Eastern Michigan

1-5

2-8

71.1

73.7

70.0

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

87.8

90.6

88.1

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Boise St.

4-1

6-3

105.2

101.9

106.6

Utah St.

5-1

6-4

105.1

103.3

106.6

Colorado St.

3-2

5-5

96.3

96.3

97.2

Wyoming

2-3

4-5

85.6

86.7

86.3

New Mexico

1-4

3-6

81.3

85.0

81.9

Air Force

0-6

2-8

79.3

82.7

79.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Fresno St.

6-0

9-0

106.7

106.4

106.3

San Jose St.

4-2

5-4

95.8

93.4

96.2

San Diego St.

4-1

5-4

93.7

92.7

94.2

U N L V

3-3

5-5

87.2

88.8

87.8

Nevada

2-5

3-7

85.9

87.5

85.9

Hawaii

0-6

0-9

83.0

83.2

83.6

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

83.3

83.8

83.8

 

 

Pacific 12 Conference

North Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Oregon

5-1

8-1

134.0

130.5

134.9

Stanford

6-1

8-1

127.8

120.6

127.3

Washington

3-3

6-3

121.0

117.1

120.8

Oregon St.

4-2

6-3

116.0

108.1

114.0

Washington St.

2-4

4-5

101.9

101.1

102.6

California

0-7

1-9

91.6

87.3

90.0

     

 

 

 

South Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Arizona St.

5-1

7-2

123.4

123.0

123.3

U C L A

4-2

7-2

117.3

112.5

115.9

U S C

4-2

7-3

116.6

113.5

116.5

Arizona

3-3

6-3

114.5

110.8

112.8

Utah

1-5

4-5

109.0

106.8

108.8

Colorado

0-6

3-6

87.8

88.6

85.9

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

113.4

110.0

112.7

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Missouri

5-1

9-1

123.8

122.0

123.2

South Carolina

5-2

7-2

119.6

117.1

118.7

Georgia

4-2

6-3

115.1

112.5

114.6

Florida

3-4

4-5

111.9

108.9

110.5

Vanderbilt

2-4

5-4

107.9

105.4

107.3

Tennessee

1-5

4-6

102.2

101.1

101.1

Kentucky

0-5

2-7

98.5

98.1

99.1

     

 

 

 

West Division

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Alabama

6-0

9-0

137.6

134.1

138.9

L S U

3-3

7-3

122.6

120.4

123.1

Texas A&M

4-2

8-2

121.5

119.3

121.3

Auburn

5-1

9-1

119.0

118.7

119.1

Ole Miss

3-3

6-3

118.9

115.9

118.2

Mississippi St.

1-4

4-5

107.1

104.4

106.9

Arkansas

0-6

3-7

95.9

98.3

94.7

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

114.4

112.6

114.1

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisiana–Lafayette

4-0

7-2

95.4

96.9

95.9

Arkansas St.

3-1

5-4

93.0

91.2

92.8

Western Kentucky

2-3

6-4

89.6

91.9

89.7

South Alabama

1-3

3-5

87.4

90.5

88.1

Louisiana–Monroe

3-2

5-5

86.1

86.9

86.1

Troy

3-3

5-5

83.3

85.9

84.3

Texas St.

2-2

6-3

82.3

87.9

82.8

Georgia St.

0-4

0-9

63.3

69.2

64.4

     

 

 

 

League Averages    

85.1

87.6

85.5

 

 

Transitioning Teams

Team

 

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Old Dominion

 

7-3

85.2

86.7

91.5

Georgia Southern

 

5-3

82.6

85.0

89.7

Appalachian St.

 

1-8

73.1

72.0

79.8

Charlotte

 

4-6

57.2

61.8

64.3

           
Not figured in regular averages to 100

74.5

76.4

81.3

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Rating Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Bowling Green Ohio

10.6

7.6

10.5

Toledo Buffalo

2.9

2.4

2.3

Northern Illinois Ball St.

5.1

3.8

4.5

Kent St. Miami (O)

16.4

15.6

18.4

Clemson Georgia Tech

11.1

12.9

12.1

Tulsa Marshall

-11.2

-15.5

-13.5

U C L A Washington

-0.7

-1.6

-1.9

Mississippi St. Alabama

-27.5

-26.7

-29.0

Auburn Georgia

6.9

9.2

7.5

South Carolina Florida

10.7

11.2

11.2

Illinois Ohio St.

-28.2

-25.4

-28.9

Oklahoma Iowa St.

24.4

27.7

24.9

Temple Central Florida

-19.0

-20.9

-20.5

Wisconsin Indiana

18.9

17.7

20.4

Ole Miss Troy

38.6

33.0

36.9

Rutgers Cincinnati

-5.0

-1.9

-4.5

Penn St. Purdue

19.9

23.2

21.3

Kansas West Virginia

-7.9

-5.2

-7.9

Western Michigan Central Michigan

-5.4

-6.6

-4.9

Vanderbilt Kentucky

11.4

9.3

10.2

Boston College North Carolina St.

12.7

9.4

12.9

Pittsburgh North Carolina

-2.6

-5.5

-3.4

Virginia Tech Maryland

17.5

14.5

16.1

Southern Miss. Florida Atlantic

-18.9

-20.4

-20.5

Massachusetts Akron

-9.0

-7.7

-10.1

Arizona Washington St.

15.6

12.7

13.2

East Carolina U A B

28.2

28.9

29.3

Georgia St. UL-Lafayette

-30.1

-25.7

-29.5

S M U Connecticut

14.0

19.4

13.7

Florida St. Syracuse

35.7

40.1

38.3

Duke Miami

-7.5

-7.5

-8.1

Texas Oklahoma St.

-0.4

-0.3

-1.5

Nebraska Michigan St.

-3.0

-5.4

-3.4

Northwestern Michigan

-0.1

-2.5

0.7

Kansas St. T C U

11.5

9.9

11.8

Navy South Alabama

10.9

9.3

10.3

Oregon Utah

28.0

26.7

29.1

Colorado California

-0.8

4.3

-1.1

Baylor (Arlington,TX) Texas Tech

21.4

19.0

23.9

Louisville Houston

15.8

7.2

15.1

South Florida Memphis

0.9

-8.0

0.1

New Mexico Colorado St.

-12.0

-8.3

-12.3

Rice Louisiana Tech

17.9

18.2

18.5

Arkansas St. Texas St.

13.7

6.3

13.0

U S C Stanford

-8.2

-4.1

-7.8

U T E P Florida Int’l

14.2

13.7

12.8

Arizona St. Oregon St.

10.4

17.9

12.3

Boise St. Wyoming

22.6

18.2

23.3

Hawaii San Diego St.

-6.7

-5.5

-6.6

Nevada San Jose St.

-6.9

-2.9

-7.3

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Rating Bowl Projections

GAME

Team

vs.

Team

New Mexico

Colorado St.

vs.

Oregon St.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Boise St.

vs.

Washington

Famous Idaho Potato

U N L V

vs.

Ball St.

New Orleans

UL-Lafayette

vs.

Tulane

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s

Western Kentucky *

vs.

Marshall

Hawai’i

San Jose St.

vs.

Middle Tennessee

Little Caesars Pizza

Toledo

vs.

Texas St. *

Poinsettia

Utah St.

vs.

Bowling Green *

Military Bowl

Syracuse

vs.

East Carolina

Texas

Iowa

vs.

Texas Tech

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Arizona

vs.

B Y U #

Pinstripe

Rutgers

vs.

West Virginia

Belk

Houston

vs.

North Carolina

Russell Athletic

Louisville

vs.

Virginia Tech

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Oklahoma

vs.

Michigan

Armed Forces

San Diego St.

vs.

Navy

Music City

Georgia Tech

vs.

Ole Miss

Alamo

Texas

vs.

U S C

Holiday

Kansas St.

vs.

U C L A

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Ohio *

vs.

Duke

Sun

Miami

vs.

Arizona St.

Liberty

Vanderbilt

vs.

North Texas

Chick-fil-A

Clemson

vs.

L S U

Heart Of Dallas

Rice

vs.

Notre Dame *

Gator

Minnesota

vs.

Georgia

Outback

South Carolina

vs.

Nebraska

Capital One

Wisconsin

vs.

Missouri

Rose

Michigan St.

vs.

Stanford

Fiesta

Oklahoma St.

vs.

Central Florida

Sugar

Ohio St.

vs.

Fresno St.

Cotton

Texas A&M

vs.

Baylor

Orange

Auburn

vs.

Oregon

BBVA Compass Bowl

Cincinnati

vs.

Maryland *

GoDaddy.com

Arkansas St.

vs.

Northern Illinois

BCS Championship

Alabama

vs.

Florida St.

 

 

 

 

* At-Large Selection

 

 

 

# Already Accepted Bid

 

 

 

 

November 4, 2013

PiRate Ratings: College Football–November 5-9, 2013

Conference Reports

AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Central Florida hosts Houston this week, and if the Knights get by the Cougars, the conference championship is almost theirs.  UCF closes with Temple, Rutgers, South Florida, and SMU.  Rutgers is the only team in that bunch capable of pulling off the upset, but that game is in Orlando.

 

Louisville has two difficult games remaining—hosting Houston on November 16 and finishing the regular season at Cincinnati on Thursday, December 5.  The Cardinals need Houston to beat UCF, and then they would have to beat Houston to earn the BCS Bowl bid.

 

Houston has the toughest job, as the Cougars must still play at UCF and Louisville in the next two Saturdays.  If they can pull off the near miracle, they would then have to face Cincinnati at home the following week  before closing with rival SMU.

 

Cincinnati and SMU are technically still in the conference race, and the two teams square off in the Queen City of Ohio this weekend.  For UC to win the league, the Bearcats must win out against SMU, Rutgers, Houston, and Louisville and then hope UCF loses a game to South Florida or Temple, which could lower their BCS ranking below the Bearcats.  SMU must win out as well, and their road is much tougher—practically impossible, as they would have to pass Louisville in the BCS rankings.

 

1

BCS (Sugar) Central Florida

2

Russell Athletic Louisville

3

Belk Houston

4

Pinstripe Rutgers

5

BBVA Compass Cincinnati

6

Beef O’Brady’s No Team Available

 

ATLANTIC COAST

In the Atlantic Division, Florida St. is a virtual lock to be the division title winner, as the Seminoles would have to lose to both Wake Forest and Syracuse to fall to second place.  The Seminoles just moved back to number two in the BCS rankings, but they are still the odd-team out as of today.  A schedule that includes Idaho and Florida besides the two ACC teams is not strong enough to stay ahead of Oregon should the Ducks win out as well.

Clemson is still alive for a BCS at-large bid, but the Tigers will have to root heavily for Northern Illinois and Fresno St. to both lose.  If one of the non-automatic qualifying teams crashes the party, Clemson’s invitation will never arrived.

 

The remainder of the Atlantic Division is fighting it out for Bowl Eligibility.  Maryland needs just one more win, and they will certainly get that.  Syracuse and Boston College both need two more wins, and the chances are at least 50-50 that they will both succeed and better than 70% that at least one will.

 

Wake Forest and North Carolina St. both have five losses, and they are on the outside looking in. Chances are better than 67% that both will miss out.

 

There is still a race to be won in the Coastal Division.  Miami has three tough games remaining in the four yet to be played.  They host a wounded Virginia Tech team this week, go to the surprising Duke Blue Devils the following week, and then after an easy one against Virginia, the “U” closes at Pittsburgh on Black Friday, where the temperature could be 50 degrees colder than home.

 

Duke controls their own destiny, and for the Blue Devils to win out, they will have to beat North Carolina St., Miami, Wake Forest, and North Carolina, the latter two on the road. 

 

Virginia Tech is still very much alive even though the Hokies have lost their last two.  If they best Miami, it will take home wins over Maryland and Virginia and at least one loss by Duke to give them the division flag.

 

Georgia Tech has a week off to prepare for a game at Clemson.  The Yellow Jackets are already bowl eligible, but they too need one more win to guarantee a bowl bid.  It will come at home against Alabama A&M on November 23.

 

North Carolina and Pittsburgh both have some work to do to become bowl eligible.  The Tar Heels dug themselves into a pit with a 1-5 start, but UNC has won their last two and gets Virginia at home this week.  Games at Pitt and home against Old Dominion and Duke are all winnable, and this team could close out the regular season on a six-game winning streak.

 

Pittsburgh needs to split their final four games to finish with six wins, and the Panthers have a tough job with Notre Dame, North Carolina, Syracuse, and Miami.  Even with six wins, there is no guarantee the Panthers will go bowling.

 

1

BCS (Orange) Florida St.

2

Chick-fil-A Clemson

3

Russell Athletic Miami

4

Sun Virginia Tech

5

Belk Maryland

6

Music City Georgia Tech

7

Advocare V100 Duke

8

Military Syracuse
     
  North Carolina 6-wins and out
  Pittsburgh 6-wins and out

 

BIG 12

The way we see it, this league is going to miss out thrice this year.  First, a 12-0 Baylor will have very little chance, make that almost no chance, of making the National Championship Game.  Second, if Baylor goes 12-0, the Bears could easily be the only league team to play in a BCS Bowl thanks to the likelihood that there will be a non-automatic qualifier breaking in line.  Third, the league champion, be it Baylor or someone else will almost assuredly be stuck playing either Fresno St. or Northern Illinois should one qualify.

 

Baylor winning the league is still not cut and dry.  The Bears have really only played one above average team, and they struggled to defeat Kansas St.  BU closes with all their tough games, starting this Thursday night at home against Oklahoma.  They follow up that game with Texas Tech at Cowboys Stadium, Oklahoma St. on the road, TCU on the road, and Texas at home.

 

Coach Mack Brown took a lot of heat and appears to still be on the hot seat in Austin, but Texas still has a shot at the conference championship.  It won’t be easy, as the Longhorns’ closing schedule is rough as well.  After a tricky road trip to West Virginia this weekend, they close with Oklahoma St., Texas Tech, and Baylor.

 

Oklahoma St. and Oklahoma are still alive with one conference loss apiece.  After an easy one at home with Kansas this weekend, OSU plays at Texas and then hosts Baylor in back-to-back weeks.  They get a week off to prepare for the home finale against the Sooners.

 

Oklahoma has two other tough road games before the Oklahoma St. finale in Stillwater.  The Sooners play at Baylor and Kansas St. with a home breather against Iowa St. sandwiched in between.

 

Texas Tech has fallen out of contention with consecutive losses, and the Red Raiders will fight it out with Kansas St. for bowl pecking order.

 

West Virginia’s win at TCU has put the Mountaineers back on the plus 50% of bowl eligibility chance rating.  WVU still has games with the two conference lightweights, Kansas and Iowa St., and the Mountaineers need two wins to reach six.

 

1

BCS (Fiesta) Baylor

2

Cotton Oklahoma St.

3

Alamo Texas

4

Buffalo Wild Wings Oklahoma

5

Holiday Texas Tech

6

Texas Kansas St.

7

Pinstripe West Virginia

 

BIG TEN

Ohio St. can win the rest of their games 100-0, and the Buckeyes will still need two of the three teams ahead of them in the BCS standings to lose.  A non-conference schedule of Buffalo, San Diego St., California, and Florida A&M did not give the Big Ten favorites a fighting chance.  The Big Ten is not strong enough to allow OSU to play that schedule and jump ahead of the Pac-12, SEC, and even ACC.  It is debatable whether the Buckeyes can stay ahead of Baylor if the Bears run the table.

 

This week, we have even made a change in our conference champion prediction.  We now believe Michigan St. has the Legends Division title secured, and this week, we are predicting the Spartans to defend the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game.

 

Wisconsin has a trap game this week with BYU.  If the Badgers win this one, they have an excellent shot of winning out and finishing 10-2, but UW would need losses from Ohio St. and Michigan St. to jump into the BCS at-large picture.

 

The remaining bowl hopefuls are all in the Legends Division.  Michigan, Nebraska, and Minnesota are already in as bowl eligible teams.  Iowa needs one more win and should get that this week at Purdue. 

 

Northwestern, after starting 4-0, has lost five in a row, and it appears as though the Wildcats are on the outside, looking in.  NU must beat one of the Michigan teams as well as Illinois on the road.

 

1

BCS (Rose) Michigan St.

2

BCS (Orange) Ohio St.

3

Capital One Wisconsin

4

Outback Michigan

5

Gator Minnesota

6

Buffalo Wild Wings Nebraska

7

Texas Iowa

8

Heart of Dallas No Team Available

9

Little Caesar’s Pizza No Team Available

 

CONFERENCE USA

The picture became much clearer this week in one division, while the top two in the other appear to be heading for a big season-ending showdown.

 

North Texas defeated Rice, while Tulane lost to an emotionally charged Florida Atlantic team.  The Mean Green will win the West Division is they defeat UTEP, UTSA, and Tulsa, while Tulane loses one more game.  The Green Wave must still play at Rice.

 

Rice can only win the division if North Texas loses, and the Owls run the table.

 

In the East, Marshall and East Carolina appear to be headed to a big finish in Huntington on Black Friday.  Middle Tennessee is still mathematically alive.  For the Blue Raiders to win the division, they must win out over FIU, Southern Miss, and UTEP, while Marshall loses before beating ECU, who must also lose another conference game.

 

1

Liberty Marshall

2

Heart of Dallas North Texas

3

Military East Carolina

4

Beef O’Brady’s Middle Tennessee

5

Hawaii Rice

6

New Orleans Tulane

 

INDEPENDENTS

This one is now cut and dry.  BYU is bowl eligible and will play in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, regardless of what happens the rest of the way.

 

Notre Dame is bowl eligible and will play in a bowl that needs an at-large team.  The Fighting Irish have an infinitesimal shot at moving into a BCS at-large bowl.

 

Navy is 4-4 with games remaining against Hawaii, South Alabama, San Jose St., and Army.  The Middies should win at least twice and earn their trip to the Armed Forced Bowl.

 

Army is 3-6 and must win out against Western Kentucky, Hawaii, and Navy.  The Black Knights should consider the road game in Honolulu as their bowl, because it does not look likely for a 3-0 finish after losing to lowly Air Force.  Coach Rich Ellerson will most likely be let go if Army loses to Navy.

 

Notre Dame Poinsettia (at-large)
B Y U Kraft Fight Hunger
Navy Armed Forces

 

MID-AMERICAN

This is the week where the MAC starts playing half its schedule on the weeknights.  There are three big midweek games this week involving four contenders for the conference championship.

 

Tuesday night, Bowling Green plays at Miami of Ohio in what must be a win for the Falcons if they are to stay in the East Division race.

 

Also Tuesday night, Buffalo, 4-0 in league play, hosts Ohio, 3-1 and tied with BGU in league play.  If the Bulls win, the Bobcats are probably out of the division race and will fall onto the bowl bubble, where they will need to earn an at-large bowl bid.

 

On Wednesday, Ball St. hosts a so-so Central Michigan team badly in need of an upset win to have a chance at a bowl.  The Cardinals are tied with Northern Illinois at 5-0 in league play, with Toledo one game back but with a home game remaining against NIU.

 

If Northern Illinois runs the table and finishes 13-0, the Huskies will still need for Fresno St. to lose a game to make it to a second consecutive BCS Bowl game.  No 13-0 team in the BCS era has failed to finish in the top 12 of the final regular season standings, and NIU (or Fresno St.) only needs to finish in the top 16 if there is an automatic qualifier ranked below them (as are all the contenders in the AAC).  Should both NIU and FSU finish undefeated, we believe the Huskies could be sent to Las Vegas in a deal to replace FSU and play in a better bowl than the GoDaddy.com bowl.

 

1

BCS at-large (Fiesta) Northern Illinois

2

GoDaddy.com Ball St.

3

Little Caesar’s Pizza Toledo

4

Famous Idaho Potato Buffalo

5

Advocare V100 * Bowling Green

6

Heart of Dallas * Ohio
     

*

At-large bid  
  Central Michigan 6 Wins and Out

 

MOUNTAIN WEST

Fresno St. has moved two spots ahead of Northern Illinois, and the Bulldogs’ schedule should guarantee that if they ran the table,  they would stay ahead of an undefeated NIU team.

 

However, the MWC is a tough league in which to run the table.  In order to get to 12-0 (one game cancelled), the Bulldogs will have to win at Wyoming this Saturday in what has to be a major trap game; The Cowboys had an extra week to prepare, and they need a big upset to have any chance at bowl eligibility.  Should FSU survive this ambush in Laramie, they have a Black Friday game at San Jose St.  If 11-0 in the MWC Championship, they would then have to defeat Boise St. for a second time or Utah St.  Boise lost by a point at Fresno in September, and we cannot see FSU beating the Broncos twice in the same season.

 

There are a host of teams competing for the bowl spots past FSU, Boise St., Utah St., and San Jose St.  UNLV needs just one win to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2003 (last bowl in 2000).  The Rebels have three shots and must beat either Utah St., Air Force, or San Diego St.

 

As for San Diego St., the Aztecs need two wins and will have to beat Hawaii and somebody else.  The November 30 game at UNLV could very well be a bowl elimination game.

 

Colorado St. must win seven games, because they play 13 regular season games.  The Rams must finish 3-1.  Their schedule includes home games with Nevada and Air Force and road games at New Mexico and Utah St.  Coach Jim McElwain’s team has a shot.

 

1

Las Vegas Boise St.

2

Poinsettia Fresno St.

3

Armed Forces San Jose St.

4

New Mexico Utah St.

5

Hawaii U N L V

6

Famous Idaho Potato Colorado St.

 

PAC-12

The conference game of the year takes place Thursday in Palo Alto, as Stanford hosts Oregon.  If the Ducks win, they still must defeat Arizona in Tucson and any of three possible South Division contenders in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

 

If Stanford wins, the Cardinal still must win at USC and defeat rival Cal to win the North.

 

As long as Stanford does not lose to Cal or Notre Dame, the Cardinal have an excellent shot at going to the Rose Bowl if they lose to Oregon.

 

As for the rest of the league, it is still quite jumbled, especially in the South Division.

 

Currently, Arizona St. is the hot team in the South.  The Sun Devils are a game ahead of UCLA, Arizona, and USC.  UCLA hosts ASU on November 23, and the winner of that game should emerge as the division winner.  However don’t dismiss USC.  The Trojans have their swagger back, and they could catch Stanford at the right time when the Cardinal come to the Coliseum following the Oregon game.

 

Arizona finishes with Oregon and Arizona St., and it is hard to see the Wildcats winning both.

 

Utah is 4-4, and the Utes still must play Oregon and Arizona St.  They can get to six wins by topping Washington St. and Colorado, but six wins may keep them home.

 

In addition to the big two in the North, Washington and Oregon St. are competing for third place.  The two play in Corvallis on November 23, and it could be for a bowl position.  The Beavers have a brutal closing schedule that includes road games against Arizona St. and Oregon, and losing to UW could be their bowl demise.

 

1

BCS (National Champ.) Oregon

2

BCS (Rose) Stanford

3

Alamo Arizona St.

4

Holiday U S C

5

Sun U C L A

6

Las Vegas Washington

7

Kraft Fight Hunger Arizona

8

New Mexico Oregon St.
     
  Utah 6 wins and out

 

SOUTHEASTERN

It is possible that Alabama could lose a game, against LSU, Auburn, or the SEC East Division winner in the conference title game, but this Alabama team looks as strong as the 1995 Nebraska team. 

 

Auburn was picked down at the bottom of the West in the preseason, but the Tigers are still mathematically alive in the West.  If they beat Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama, they will win the division; they won’t.

 

LSU and Texas A&M are fighting for a possible BCS at-large bid, but it will take a 10-2 record to do so, and both are 7-2 with three games to go.  LSU would have to upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa this week.  The Tigers and Aggies play in Baton Rouge on November 23.  A&M finishes at Missouri a week later. 

 

Ole Miss will be the fourth team out of the West to go bowling, but Mississippi St. appears to be out of the picture at 4-4 with games yet to be played against Texas A&M, Alabama, and Ole Miss.  Coach Dan Mullen turned down opportunities to coach at bigger schools after the 2010 team beat Michigan 52-14 in the Gator Bowl.  He chose to stay in Starkville, and his reward might be unemployment in 2014.

 

In the East, Missouri is still in the driver’s seat with a 4-1 conference mark.  However, the Tigers have tricky games remaining against Ole Miss in Oxford and Texas A&M at home.

 

If Missouri finishes 6-2, then it will matter who the other loss came against in a 3-way tie with two loss Georgia and South Carolina.  If the loss is to Kentucky this week, then the Tigers are in trouble.  If the loss comes against Ole Miss or Texas A&M, then they still win the tiebreaker.

 

If Missouri and South Carolina finish in a two-way tie, then the Gamecocks win the East.  Georgia needs Missouri to lose to Kentucky or two lose twice before they have a chance to return to Atlanta.  Of course, the Bulldogs still have to play at Auburn.

 

In the rare event that teams finish tied for first at 5-3, Florida re-enters the equation.  There are too many possibilities yet to play out, but most of them will be eliminated if Missouri takes care of business in Lexington.

 

As for the rest of the East, the Gators are not yet bowl eligible.  At 4-4, Florida has two tough games on their schedule at South Carolina and at home against Florida St.  Additionally, they still have a difficult game at home against Vanderbilt.  6-6 is probable.

 

Vanderbilt is 4-4 with four to play.  They have games against less than mediocre Kentucky and Wake Forest, as well as winnable games at Florida and Tennessee, so the Commodores have a high probability of making a third consecutive bowl appearance.

 

Tennessee is in a very familiar situation at 4-5 with three games to go.  The Volunteers have been crippled with an injury to starting quarterback Justin Worley as well as backup Nathan Peterman.  Worley could be back for the final two games, and the Vols will have to win them both, at home against Vanderbilt and at Kentucky.

 

1

BCS (National Champ.) Alabama

2

BCS (Sugar) Auburn

3

Capital One Missouri

4

Outback Texas A&M

5

Cotton South Carolina

6

Chick-fil-A L S U

7

Gator Georgia

8

Music City Ole Miss

9

Liberty Florida

10

BBVA Compass Vanderbilt

11

Advocare V100 No Team Available

 

SUNBELT

The road to the SBC title runs through the Pelican State this year, as the UL-Lafayette and UL-Monroe winner will take the crown with the loser getting the second bowl spot.

 

Arkansas St., Texas St., Troy, and Western Kentucky still have shots to make a bowl, but as this league did last year to Middle Tennessee, expect Western Kentucky to get the shaft if there are extra bowl eligible teams.  The Hilltoppers are leaving the league in 2014.

 

1

New Orleans UL-Lafayette

2

GoDaddy.com UL-Monroe

3

Little Caesar’s * Texas St.

4

Beef O’Brady’s * Western Kentucky
     
  Arkansas St. 6 wins and out
  Troy 6 wins and out

 

PiRate Ratings For November 4, 2013

PiRate Regular

1

Alabama

137.1

2

Oregon

135.6

3

Florida St.

131.8

4

Baylor

128.2

5

Ohio St.

128.2

6

Stanford

126.0

7

Arizona St.

124.4

8

L S U

123.0

9

Missouri

122.9

10

Texas A&M

122.0

11

Oklahoma St.

120.9

12

Wisconsin

120.4

13

Clemson

120.2

14

Ole Miss

120.0

15

Washington

119.7

16

South Carolina

119.6

17

Michigan St.

118.9

18

Texas

118.8

19

U C L A

116.5

20

Oregon St.

116.0

21

Oklahoma

115.8

22

Auburn

115.7

23

Louisville

115.5

24

Georgia

115.4

25

Arizona

115.3

26

Miami

115.2

27

Florida

115.2

28

U S C

115.1

29

B Y U

114.8

30

Kansas St.

112.9

31

Michigan

112.3

32

Nebraska

112.3

33

Notre Dame

112.2

34

Georgia Tech

112.1

35

Texas Tech

110.0

36

Central Florida

108.9

37

Northwestern

108.6

38

Virginia Tech

108.1

39

Utah

108.0

40

T C U

106.7

41

Mississippi St.

106.3

42

Iowa

106.0

43

North Carolina

105.9

44

Utah St.

105.8

45

Minnesota

105.7

46

Vanderbilt

105.6

47

Boise St.

105.2

48

Tennessee

104.7

49

Cincinnati

104.5

50

Penn St.

104.5

51

Fresno St.

104.1

52

Indiana

104.0

53

Northern Illinois

103.3

54

East Carolina

103.0

55

Duke

102.4

56

West Virginia

102.2

57

Boston College

101.9

58

Washington St.

101.9

59

Houston

101.7

60

Ball St.

101.1

61

Toledo

100.4

62

Syracuse

99.8

63

Bowling Green

99.8

64

Wake Forest

99.8

65

Pittsburgh

99.4

66

Kentucky

99.4

67

North Texas

98.5

68

Marshall

98.3

69

Buffalo

97.8

70

Illinois

97.7

71

San Jose St.

97.0

72

Rice

96.2

73

Louisiana–Lafayette

96.2

74

Rutgers

95.9

75

Maryland

95.9

76

Navy

95.5

77

Colorado St.

95.5

78

Arkansas

95.1

79

Ohio

94.7

80

S M U

94.2

81

Iowa St.

93.0

82

California

92.9

83

Kansas

92.6

84

San Diego St.

92.5

85

North Carolina St.

91.6

86

Arkansas St.

90.8

87

U T S A

90.6

88

Memphis

90.2

89

Virginia

90.0

90

Western Kentucky

89.5

91

Colorado

89.1

92

Florida Atlantic

89.0

93

Louisiana–Monroe

88.3

94

Tulsa

88.1

95

Purdue

88.0

96

South Florida

87.8

97

Wyoming

87.7

98

South Alabama

87.4

99

Tulane

87.3

100

Temple

87.1

101

Nevada

86.7

102

U N L V

86.5

103

Middle Tennessee

86.1

104

Kent St.

86.0

105

Connecticut

83.5

106

Akron

83.3

107

Central Michigan

82.8

108

Hawaii

82.8

109

Troy

82.5

110

Texas St.

82.3

111

Army

82.1

112

U A B

81.4

113

Louisiana Tech

80.8

114

New Mexico

80.8

115

Air Force

79.8

116

U T E P

79.0

117

Western Michigan

75.5

118

Miami (O)

73.0

119

Massachusetts

72.3

120

New Mexico St.

71.9

121

Eastern Michigan

70.9

122

Florida Int’l

69.2

123

Idaho

68.7

124

Southern Miss.

68.1

125

Georgia St.

63.3

 

PiRate Mean

1

Florida St.

135.7

2

Alabama

133.3

3

Oregon

132.5

4

Ohio St.

127.0

5

Arizona St.

124.1

6

Clemson

121.5

7

Wisconsin

121.2

8

L S U

121.1

9

Baylor

121.0

10

Missouri

120.9

11

Texas A&M

119.9

12

Michigan St.

119.6

13

Stanford

118.5

14

South Carolina

117.1

15

Ole Miss

116.9

16

Miami

116.6

17

Auburn

115.6

18

Washington

115.6

19

Louisville

114.6

20

B Y U

113.5

21

Georgia

112.8

22

Michigan

112.5

23

Florida

112.3

24

Oklahoma St.

112.2

25

Arizona

111.9

26

U S C

111.9

27

Central Florida

111.8

28

Georgia Tech

111.6

29

U C L A

111.4

30

Oklahoma

111.3

31

Texas

110.7

32

Nebraska

110.4

33

Notre Dame

110.1

34

Houston

109.5

35

Virginia Tech

108.4

36

Oregon St.

108.1

37

North Carolina

107.8

38

Northwestern

106.2

39

Indiana

105.8

40

Texas Tech

105.7

41

Utah

105.7

42

Northern Illinois

105.6

43

Penn St.

105.6

44

Kansas St.

105.5

45

Minnesota

105.4

46

Iowa

105.3

47

East Carolina

104.9

48

Ball St.

104.7

49

Cincinnati

104.0

50

Utah St.

103.8

51

Fresno St.

103.6

52

Tennessee

103.5

53

Mississippi St.

103.5

54

Duke

103.4

55

Vanderbilt

103.0

56

Wake Forest

102.7

57

Boston College

102.4

58

Toledo

102.3

59

Boise St.

101.9

60

Marshall

101.9

61

T C U

101.5

62

North Texas

101.1

63

Washington St.

101.1

64

Bowling Green

100.2

65

Buffalo

100.1

66

Maryland

99.9

67

Illinois

99.6

68

Kentucky

99.2

69

Rutgers

98.9

70

Syracuse

98.8

71

Rice

98.8

72

Ohio

98.5

73

Pittsburgh

98.4

74

Louisiana–Lafayette

97.6

75

Arkansas

97.6

76

Navy

97.2

77

S M U

96.3

78

Memphis

95.7

79

North Carolina St.

95.5

80

West Virginia

95.3

81

Colorado St.

95.2

82

San Jose St.

94.6

83

U T S A

92.5

84

Virginia

91.7

85

Western Kentucky

91.6

86

San Diego St.

91.5

87

Middle Tennessee

91.0

88

Tulane

90.8

89

South Alabama

90.5

90

Florida Atlantic

90.5

91

Colorado

90.1

92

Louisiana–Monroe

89.4

93

Wyoming

89.0

94

Kansas

88.9

95

California

88.7

96

Arkansas St.

88.7

97

Nevada

88.6

98

Temple

88.5

99

Kent St.

88.5

100

U N L V

88.3

101

Texas St.

87.9

102

Army

87.8

103

Tulsa

87.2

104

Akron

87.0

105

Central Michigan

85.5

106

Purdue

85.4

107

Troy

85.2

108

Iowa St.

84.5

109

New Mexico

84.5

110

South Florida

84.4

111

Louisiana Tech

83.2

112

Air Force

83.2

113

Hawaii

82.8

114

U A B

82.4

115

U T E P

80.9

116

Connecticut

79.5

117

Massachusetts

77.3

118

Western Michigan

76.9

119

Miami (O)

76.5

120

New Mexico St.

75.1

121

Eastern Michigan

73.6

122

Idaho

73.3

123

Florida Int’l

71.4

124

Georgia St.

69.2

125

Southern Miss.

68.0

 

PiRate Bias

1

Alabama

138.2

2

Oregon

136.8

3

Florida St.

133.6

4

Baylor

130.1

5

Ohio St.

128.4

6

Stanford

125.3

7

Arizona St.

124.5

8

L S U

123.7

9

Missouri

122.2

10

Texas A&M

122.0

11

Wisconsin

121.5

12

Clemson

121.3

13

Oklahoma St.

120.7

14

Ole Miss

119.6

15

Washington

119.4

16

South Carolina

118.7

17

Michigan St.

118.3

18

Texas

117.9

19

Louisville

116.5

20

Auburn

115.9

21

B Y U

115.8

22

Miami

115.7

23

Oklahoma

115.1

24

U C L A

114.8

25

U S C

114.8

26

Georgia

114.5

27

Oregon St.

114.0

28

Arizona

113.9

29

Florida

113.9

30

Kansas St.

112.6

31

Georgia Tech

112.2

32

Michigan

111.5

33

Nebraska

111.1

34

Notre Dame

110.6

35

Central Florida

110.3

36

Texas Tech

109.2

37

Northwestern

108.4

38

Utah

107.6

39

Utah St.

107.5

40

Virginia Tech

107.4

41

North Carolina

106.7

42

Boise St.

106.6

43

Iowa

106.4

44

T C U

106.1

45

Mississippi St.

105.9

46

Minnesota

105.5

47

Vanderbilt

104.9

48

Fresno St.

104.4

49

Cincinnati

104.2

50

Northern Illinois

103.9

51

Penn St.

103.6

52

Tennessee

103.6

53

East Carolina

103.4

54

Indiana

103.4

55

Boston College

103.0

56

Houston

102.9

57

Washington St.

102.6

58

Ball St.

102.3

59

Duke

101.9

60

Toledo

101.4

61

West Virginia

101.3

62

Wake Forest

100.5

63

Bowling Green

100.2

64

Kentucky

100.1

65

North Texas

99.7

66

Marshall

99.6

67

Pittsburgh

99.4

68

Buffalo

99.3

69

Syracuse

98.7

70

San Jose St.

97.8

71

Illinois

97.4

72

Maryland

97.3

73

Louisiana–Lafayette

96.8

74

Rice

96.5

75

Colorado St.

96.3

76

Rutgers

96.0

77

Navy

95.7

78

Ohio

95.5

79

Arkansas

93.6

80

S M U

93.4

81

San Diego St.

92.6

82

North Carolina St.

92.3

83

Kansas

92.1

84

Iowa St.

91.6

85

California

91.5

86

Memphis

90.7

87

Arkansas St.

90.5

88

U T S A

90.4

89

Virginia

90.1

90

Florida Atlantic

89.8

91

Western Kentucky

89.6

92

Wyoming

88.7

93

Louisiana–Monroe

88.4

94

South Alabama

88.1

95

Tulane

87.7

96

South Florida

87.5

97

Colorado

87.3

98

Tulsa

87.1

99

Middle Tennessee

87.0

100

U N L V

86.9

101

Temple

86.8

102

Nevada

86.8

103

Kent St.

86.4

104

Purdue

85.4

105

Akron

84.1

106

Army

83.5

107

Troy

83.4

108

Hawaii

83.3

109

Texas St.

82.8

110

Connecticut

82.8

111

Central Michigan

82.3

112

New Mexico

81.4

113

U A B

80.7

114

Louisiana Tech

80.4

115

Air Force

79.6

116

U T E P

77.7

117

Western Michigan

75.6

118

Massachusetts

72.0

119

New Mexico St.

71.6

120

Miami (O)

71.5

121

Eastern Michigan

69.7

122

Florida Int’l

69.4

123

Idaho

68.1

124

Southern Miss.

67.4

125

Georgia St.

64.4

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference

Team

Conf.

Overall

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Louisville

3-1

7-1

115.5

114.6

116.5

Central Florida

3-0

6-1

108.9

111.8

110.3

Cincinnati

3-1

6-2

104.5

104.0

104.2

Houston

4-0

7-1

101.7

109.5

102.9

Rutgers

2-2

5-3

95.9

98.9

96.0

S M U

2-1

3-4

94.2

96.3

93.4

Memphis

0-4

1-6

90.2

95.7

90.7

South Florida

2-2

2-6

87.8

84.4

87.5

Temple

0-5

1-8

87.1

88.5

86.8

Connecticut

0-3

0-7

83.5

79.5

82.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

League Averages

 

 

96.9

98.3

97.1