The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 8, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 9-13, 2010

We’re In The Money

2010 has been a banner year for the PiRate Rankings.  Our picks against the spread for our customers have been hitting at better than 66.7% all year, but still we were in total shock when this past weekend’s games brought us an incredible 9-1-1 record.  For the year, our record moves to 56-23-3 for an incredible 70.9%.

 

It’s always nice to hear from you if you purchased our picks for the season back in August.  Why have we been so successful this year?  We believe it is the incredible parity in the NFL and a great deal of mediocrity in the NCAA.  So many of the NFL games have been close, and so many of the college teams after the top four or five are weaker than in past years.  So, when you play a 13-point teaser, it is like having gold in your hands if you know a little about numbers and football percentages.  Let’s take a look at our picks from this past weekend.

 

1. 13-point Teaser

Air Force +6 vs. Army, Miami (Fl) +5 ½ vs. Maryland, Texas A&M +16 ½ vs. Oklahoma, and Kansas State +16 ½ vs. Texas

WON

We had Air Force rated as a solid favorite over Army.  The Black Knights are enjoying their best season in years, but they do not have enough offense to face a potent Air Force team.  We figured the Falcons would win by 10-12 points, and even that was an understatement.

 

We felt that Miami had about a 65% chance of beating Maryland outright, so getting 5 ½ made us feel like it was a 95% chance of covering.  Our statement to our subscribers was, “Maryland’s record is too deceiving.  They could drop four in a row to finish 6-6.”

 

We are not about to tell you that we called for A&M to beat Oklahoma by two touchdowns, but we told our subscribers that, “Oklahoma cannot win this game by more than 10 points.”

 

As for the Kansas State-Texas game, we did call for KSU to win outright.  Getting 16 ½ points was pure gravy.

 

2. 13-point Teaser

Nevada +2 vs. Idaho, California -1 vs. Washington State, Stanford +4 vs. Arizona, and TCU +8 ½ vs. Utah

WON

We went with four clear favorites over four weaker opponents and got points in three of the four plays in the parlay.  We felt that all four would win by double digits, and even though Cal only won by seven, we easily won this teaser.

 

3. 13-point Teaser

Indiana +27 vs. Iowa, Michigan +6 ½ vs. Illinois, Wisconsin -10 vs. Purdue, and Arkansas +14 vs. South Carolina

WON

We were wrong in predicting how the Iowa-Indiana game would turn out, but it still won for us.  We expected a 35-24 type game and not the low scoring affair that happened.  As for Michigan-Illinois, we had to sweat this out for a while.  We expected the shootout, but we thought Michigan would win 42-31.  Tate Forcier pulled this one out for us.  He has to be the best number two QB in the nation.  Wisconsin needed to go well into the 3rd quarter before taking over this game, but they won by the same 21 points we predicted.  We called for Arkansas to outscore South Carolina.  We were looking for a 35-31 win, so the 21-point blowout was just fine for us.

 

4. Florida -14 vs. Vanderbilt

WON

We consider ourselves experts in the plight of poor Vanderbilt, as our founder grew up watching them play week after week.  He told us that Vanderbilt would be down 35 points by halftime, and he was off by six.  It was 41-0!

 

5. Louisiana Tech Pk vs. Fresno State

Loss

This is the one game we lost, and we thought it was one of our strongest plays of the week.  This is one of Fresno’s weaker teams in this run of winning years.  Thinking that a long trip to the Deep South might be a little too much, we went with Tech to win and missed it.

 

6. Tennessee -20 ½ vs. Memphis

WON

Again, we deferred to our founder and relied on his information in the Volunteer State.  He believed that Tennessee was better than an average C-USA team, and the average C-USA team was more than three touchdowns better than Memphis.  He also told us that Tennessee is 10-points better in November than in any other month.  That was good enough for us.

 

7. Buffalo Bills +3 vs. Chicago Bears

Push (Tie)

The Bears edged the Bills by a field goal to make this game a push.  We felt that Buffalo would break through for its first win playing on foreign soil.

 

8. Buffalo Bills & Chicago Bears OVER 40 ½

WON

We won the other part of this game by predicting it to be a 28-24 final.  The 41 points was a razor thin margin to win by, but we have lost our share of games by a point or half-point in the past, and those still counted as losses.

 

9. Arizona Cardinals +8 vs. Minnesota Vikings

WON

With the Vikings full of dissension, and Brett Favre tossing more interceptions than touchdowns, we thought the Minnesota defense would give up too many points, even to the lowly Cardinals.  Favre had a great day, but he tossed two interceptions.  The game stayed close, and Arizona almost won it outright.

 

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers & Atlanta Falcons OVER 44 ½

WON

We called this game almost exactly correct.  We called for the Falcons to win 28-24, but even though the actual final was a bit lower, it covered the total.

 

11. Green Bay Packers -7 ½ vs. Dallas Cowboys

WON

This was a gift from the odds makers.  Dallas is as weak as Carolina, but the public perception is that they are not.  Without Tony Romo, the spread should have been 13 ½ or even more. 

 

A New Number One

The PiRate Rankings have a new number one team.  TCU vaulted to first place after beating an undefeated Top 10 team on the road by 40 points.  This was a Utah team that proved it could beat Iowa State in Ames by several touchdowns more than Nebraska was able to do.

 

The Horned Frogs, unlike Auburn and Oregon, are equally strong on both offense and defense.  Boise State is proving to be the same.  We believe that both TCU and Boise State would defeat Oregon and Auburn in a national semifinal if there were playoffs.  The two non-automatic qualifiers are the two best teams in the land, even if our own PiRate Ratings has Oregon rated a little above Boise State.

 

The current BCS is just not acceptable as a real method of choosing the two best teams.  The two best teams should be the two teams playing the best.  Oregon and Auburn are both one half of a real juggernaut.  Neither has a championship defense.  Boise State and TCU have both a championship offense and defense.

 

What else do the MWC and WAC undefeated teams have to prove?  Boise State beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, and Utah massacred Alabama in the Sugar Bowl when they were given the chance.  Previously, Utah won its other BCS Bowl game in the 2004 season.

 

Here is where the BCS is flawed.  You have heard us say this before.  If you took the entire First and Second Team All-American squads and put them in a San Jose State uniform, and the Spartans went 12-0, they would not get the chance to play for the National Championship, even though it would be clear that they were 21 points better than any other team.  The National Championship Game should have the two best teams, or it is bogus.

 

The NCAA elite do not want to include the TCU’s and Boise State’s.  It is a corrupt system, and the PiRates are all about waging war against elitist corruption.  Wait until you see what we dictate for the bowls.  It is the only way to end this primitive system for selecting a national champion.

 

NCAA Top 25 November 8, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 T C U 134.5 9 0
2 Oregon 134.3 9 0
3 Boise State 132.2 8 0
4 Stanford 127.5 8 1
5 Ohio State 125.8 8 1
6t Arkansas 125.8 7 2
6t Alabama 125.8 7 2
8 Auburn 125.1 10 0
9 Oklahoma 123.2 7 2
10 Iowa 121.1 7 2
11 Virginia Tech 120.9 7 2
12 Nebraska 120.3 8 1
13 Florida State 119.1 6 3
14 Florida 119.0 6 3
15 Wisconsin 118.6 8 1
16 L S U 117.0 8 1
17 Arizona 117.6 7 2
18 North Carolina 117.5 6 3
19 Texas A&M 116.8 6 3
20 South Carolina 116.8 6 3
21 Georgia 116.6 5 5
22 Utah 116.0 8 1
23 Miami (Fla) 115.9 6 3
24 Missouri 115.9 7 2
25 Oregon State 115.5 4 4
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 4-2 6-3 119.1
Clemson 3-3 5-4 111.9
North Carolina State 3-2 6-3 107.9
Boston College 2-4 4-5 105.0
Maryland 3-2 6-3 102.3
Wake Forest 1-5 2-7 93.3
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 5-0 7-2 120.9
North Carolina 3-2 6-3 117.5
Miami-FL 4-2 6-3 115.9
Georgia Tech 3-3 5-4 112.6
Virginia 1-4 4-5 96.1
Duke 1-4 3-6 94.4

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Pittsburgh 3-0 5-3 111.5
West Virginia 1-2 5-3 111.5
Cincinnati 1-2 3-5 105.0
Connecticut 1-2 4-4 104.2
Louisville 2-2 5-4 104.0
South Florida 2-2 5-3 103.7
Syracuse 3-2 6-3 101.2
Rutgers 1-2 4-4 93.9

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 4-1 8-1 125.8
Iowa 4-1 7-2 121.1
Wisconsin 4-1 8-1 118.6
Michigan State 5-1 9-1 111.5
Michigan 2-3 6-3 106.7
Penn State 3-2 6-3 106.1
Illinois 3-3 5-4 106.1
Northwestern 2-3 6-3 95.9
Indiana 0-5 4-5 92.2
Purdue 2-3 4-5 91.6
Minnesota 0-6 1-9 91.5

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 4-1 8-1 120.3
Missouri 3-2 7-2 115.9
Kansas State 3-3 6-3 101.1
Colorado 0-5 3-6 97.8
Iowa State 3-3 5-5 96.0
Kansas 1-4 3-6 88.8
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 3-2 7-2 123.2
Texas A&M 3-2 6-3 116.8
Oklahoma State 4-1 8-1 112.8
Texas 2-4 4-5 108.7
Baylor 4-2 7-3 107.8
Texas Tech 3-4 5-4 105.5

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 5-0 7-2 104.7
Southern Mississippi 3-2 6-3 94.5
East Carolina 4-1 5-4 93.0
U A B 2-3 3-6 87.7
Marshall 2-3 3-6 84.5
Memphis 0-5 1-8 68.1
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 4-2 5-4 99.4
Tulsa 3-2 6-3 98.0
S M U 4-2 5-5 91.6
U T E P 3-4 6-4 84.4
Rice 1-4 2-7 80.8
Tulane 1-4 3-6 77.7

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Navy   6-3 105.4
Notre Dame   4-5 103.5
Army   5-4 88.2

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 5-1 8-2 96.5
Ohio U 5-1 7-3 90.4
Miami (O) 4-1 5-4 86.5
Kent St. 3-3 4-5 85.0
Bowling Green 1-4 2-7 77.6
Buffalo 1-4 2-7 76.4
Akron 0-6 0-10 65.2
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 5-0 7-2 98.6
Toledo 5-0 6-3 88.2
Western Michigan 2-3 3-6 83.7
Central Michigan 2-5 3-7 81.6
Ball State 2-4 3-7 73.9
Eastern Michigan 1-4 1-8 67.7

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 6-0 10-0 134.5
Utah 5-1 8-1 116.0
Air Force 3-3 6-4 106.8
B Y U 3-2 4-5 99.6
S. D. State 4-1 7-2 99.2
Colo. State 2-4 3-7 87.9
Wyoming 0-6 2-8 87.7
UNLV 1-4 1-8 81.5
New Mexico 1-4 1-8 74.7

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 6-0 9-0 134.3
Stanford 5-1 8-1 127.5
Arizona 4-2 7-2 117.6
Oregon St. 3-2 4-4 115.5
Southern Cal 3-3 6-3 114.0
California 3-3 5-4 110.7
Arizona St. 2-4 4-5 107.9
U C L A 2-4 4-5 106.1
Washington 2-4 3-6 103.5
Washington State 0-7 1-9 90.6

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida 4-3 6-3 119.0
South Carolina 4-3 6-3 116.8
Georgia 3-4 5-5 116.6
Kentucky 1-5 5-5 106.7
Tennessee 0-5 3-6 101.2
Vanderbilt 1-5 2-7 88.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Arkansas 4-2 7-2 125.8
Alabama 4-2 7-2 125.8
Auburn 6-0 10-0 125.1
L S U 5-1 8-1 117.7
Mississippi State 3-2 7-2 114.6
Ole Miss 1-4 4-5 102.6

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 4-1 5-3 87.4
Arkansas State 4-2 4-5 85.6
Florida International 3-1 3-5 83.1
Middle Tennessee 2-2 3-5 82.4
Louisiana-Monroe 3-3 4-5 78.8
Florida Atlantic 2-3 3-5 78.7
U. of Louisiana 2-3 2-7 78.1
North Texas 2-4 2-7 78.0
Western Kentucky 1-4 1-8 73.3

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 4-0 8-0 132.2
Nevada 3-1 8-1 111.3
Hawaii 5-1 7-3 104.9
Fresno State 4-1 6-2 97.9
Louisiana Tech 2-3 3-6 93.4
Utah State 1-4 3-6 89.4
Idaho 1-3 4-5 87.0
San Jose State 0-4 1-8 78.3
New Mexico State 1-4 2-7 74.1

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 2      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Toledo 13.4 34-21
       
Wednesday, November 3      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Miami (O) BOWLING GREEN 6.4 26-20
       
Thursday, November 4      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Pittsburgh CONNECTICUT 4.3 24-20
East Carolina U A B 2.3 35-33
       
Friday, November 5      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
BUFFALO Ball State 5.5 23-17
Boise State IDAHO 42.2 52-10
       
Saturday, November 6      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
AUBURN Georgia 11.5 42-30
ARKANSAS U t e p 44.9 62-17
Stanford ARIZONA STATE 16.1 40-24
Oregon CALIFORNIA 23.6 44-20
COLORADO Iowa State 4.8 35-30
FLORIDA STATE Clemson 10.2 34-24
FLORIDA South Carolina 5.2 26-21
Miami (Fl) GEORGIA TECH 0.3 27-27 to ot
Iowa NORTHWESTERN 22.2 42-20
KENTUCKY Vanderbilt 20.8 38-17
LOUISVILLE South Florida 3.3 24-21
MISSOURI Kansas State 17.8 35-17
Boston College DUKE 7.6 31-23
N. C. STATE Wake Forest 17.1 35-18
Virginia Tech NORTH CAROLINA 0.4 20-20 to ot
NEBRASKA Kansas 34.5 45-10
Syracuse RUTGERS 4.3 24-20
OHIO STATE Penn State 22.7 33-10
OKLAHOMA Texas Tech 20.7 48-27
OREGON STATE Washington State 27.9 38-10
Texas A&M BAYLOR 6.5 34-27
Oklahoma State TEXAS 1.1 35-34
Maryland VIRGINIA 3.2 27-24
WISCONSIN Indiana 29.2 42-13
MARSHALL Memphis 19.4 35-16
WEST VIRGINIA Cincinnati 9.5 27-17
ALABAMA Mississippi State 14.2 28-14
ILLINOIS Minnesota 17.6 38-20
ARKANSAS STATE Western Kentucky 14.8 42-27
FLORIDA ATLANTIC Louisiana-Lafayette 4.1 27-23
MIDDLE TENNESSEE North Texas 7.4 34-27
Michigan PURDUE 12.1 38-26
TENNESSEE Ole Miss 1.6 28-26
TROY Florida Int’l 7.3 34-27
CENTRAL FLORIDA Southern Miss 13.2 41-28
B y u COLORADO STATE 8.7 37-28
Army KENT STATE 0.2 20-20 to ot
WESTERN MICHIGAN Eastern Michigan 18.5 40-21
Utah NOTRE DAME 8.5 40-31
NAVY Central Michigan 26.8 47-20
Rice TULANE 0.1 30-30 to ot
T C U San Diego State 38.8 49-10
Louisiana Tech NEW MEXICO STATE 16.3 28-12
AIR FORCE New Mexico 35.1 45-10
ARIZONA Southern Cal 6.6 31-24
Utah State SAN JOSE STATE 8.6 37-28
L S U Louisiana-Monroe 41.9 45-3
HOUSTON Tulsa 4.4 42-38
Nevada FRESNO STATE 10.4 41-31
Wyoming U N L V 3.7 28-24

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 2      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Toledo 31-21 30-22
       
Wednesday, November 3      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Miami (O) BOWLING GREEN 28-28 to ot 34-13
       
Thursday, November 4      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Pittsburgh CONNECTICUT 24-16 23-17
East Carolina U A B 38-34 38-33
       
Friday, November 5      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
BUFFALO Ball State 26-21 27-12
Boise State IDAHO 41-12 56-14
       
Saturday, November 6      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
AUBURN Georgia 37-27 41-27
ARKANSAS U t e p 49-20 52-17
Stanford ARIZONA STATE 38-28 38-14
Oregon CALIFORNIA 41-24 54-18
Iowa State COLORADO 31-28 30-20
FLORIDA STATE Clemson 28-20 22-20
FLORIDA South Carolina 23-17 24-17
Miami (Fl) GEORGIA TECH 31-27 24-28
Iowa NORTHWESTERN 31-17 27-16
KENTUCKY Vanderbilt 35-21 42-20
LOUISVILLE South Florida 27-23 27-24
MISSOURI Kansas State 33-24 35-24
Boston College DUKE 29-26 20-23
N. C. STATE Wake Forest 40-18 28-13
Virginia Tech NORTH CAROLINA 27-24 28-24
NEBRASKA Kansas 39-7 45-17
Syracuse RUTGERS 28-26 26-27
OHIO STATE Penn State 26-10 24-14
OKLAHOMA Texas Tech 33-20 34-20
OREGON STATE Washington State 35-10 31-10
Texas A&M BAYLOR 34-32 35-31
Oklahoma State TEXAS 33-24 38-22
Maryland VIRGINIA 24-21 25-26
WISCONSIN Indiana 40-17 38-21
MARSHALL Memphis 37-21 37-19
WEST VIRGINIA Cincinnati 24-17 28-17
ALABAMA Mississippi State 23-10 20-10
ILLINOIS Minnesota 34-10 34-20
ARKANSAS STATE Western Kentucky 38-23 40-24
FLORIDA ATLANTIC Louisiana-Lafayette 25-17 21-18
MIDDLE TENNESSEE North Texas 35-30 33-27
Michigan PURDUE 34-25 38-23
TENNESSEE Ole Miss 28-26 31-26
TROY Florida Int’l 34-26 34-24
CENTRAL FLORIDA Southern Miss 35-23 35-26
B y u COLORADO STATE 34-28 41-22
Army KENT STATE 21-20 27-16
WESTERN MICHIGAN Eastern Michigan 35-17 33-23
Utah NOTRE DAME 34-24 34-21
NAVY Central Michigan 44-24 44-20
TULANE Rice 30-25 31-21
T C U San Diego State 38-10 45-10
Louisiana Tech NEW MEXICO STATE 23-10 25-19
AIR FORCE New Mexico 35-3 34-13
ARIZONA Southern Cal 31-26 30-23
Utah State SAN JOSE STATE 34-30 38-28
L S U Louisiana-Monroe 40-7 37-9
HOUSTON Tulsa 38-38 to ot 45-41
Nevada FRESNO STATE 38-30 40-30
Wyoming U N L V 31-28 26-28

 

The Bowls

A lot of the bowls are going to be games with 7-5 and 6-6 mediocrity this year.  Unless it is your team playing, there will be no need to tune any of them in.  If the bowls were instead used to host playoff rounds, with 11 bowls being used for 12 teams, then the remaining bowls could then invite teams with eight and nine wins instead of six and seven.

 

Here is our look at what we think will happen, but it is not what we think should happen.  If you ask us today, Boise State and TCU should meet for a third consecutive bowl season with the winner being declared National Champion.

 

Bowl Conference Prediction Conference Prediction
New Mexico MWC #4 or (5) B Y U 6-6 WAC (#3?) [Ohio U 8-4]
Humanitarian MAC #3 Miami (O) 8-5 WAC #(1) or 2 Nevada 10-2
New Orleans Sunbelt #(1) or 2 Troy 7-5 C-USA #5 UTEP 6-6
St. Petersburg Big East #6 Connecticut 6-6 C-USA #4-6 Sou. Miss 7-5
Las Vegas MWC #1 Utah 11-1 Pac 10 #5 Oregon St. 6-6
Poinsettia MWC #2 San Diego St. 8-4 Navy or WAC Navy 9-3
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3/4 Hawaii 10-3 C-USA #2-6 E C U 8-4
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8/SBC Northwestern 6-6 MAC #1-2 N. Illinois 11-2
Independence ACC #7 Georgia Tech 6-6 MWC #3 Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports Big East #2 S. Florida 7-5 ACC #3 Florida St. 8-5
Insight Big 12 #4 Oklahoma 9-3 Big 10 #4 or 5 Mich. St. 10-2
Military ACC #8 Maryland 6-6 C-USA #6 S M U 6-6
Texas Big 12 #6-7 Texas Tech 7-5 Big 10 #6-7 Illinois 8-4
Alamo Big 12 #3 Missouri 10-2 Pac 10 #2 Arizona 9-3
Armed Forces C-USA #3-4 Tulsa 8-4 MWC #3-5/Army Army 6-6
Pinstripe Big East #3-4 Syracuse 7-5 Big 12 #6-7 Baylor 7-5
Music City SEC # 7 Tennessee 6-6 ACC #6 Miami (F) 7-5
Holiday Big 12 #5 Texas A&M 9-3 Pac 10 #3 U C L A 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #4-5 Clemson 7-5 Big East #3-4 West Va. 7-5
Sun ACC #4 or 5 N.C. State 8-4 Pac 10 #4 California 6-6
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 Kentucky 6-6 C-USA #1 Central Fla. 11-2
Chick-fil-A SEC #3-6 Miss. State 8-4 ACC #2 N. Carolina 8-4
Dallas Football Classic Big 10 #6-7 Michigan 7-5 Big 12 #8/CUSA Kansas St. 7-5
Outback SEC #3-6 E Florida 9-4 Big 10 #3 Iowa 10-2
Capital One Big 10 #2 Ohio St. 10-2 SEC #2 L S U 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Penn St. 8-4 SEC #6 S. Carolina 7-5
Rose BCS Pac10 Stanford 11-1 BCS Big 10 Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Nebraska 11-2 BCS At-Large Pittsburgh 7-5
Orange BCS ACC Va. Tech 11-2 BCS At-Large Arkansas 10-2
Sugar BCS SEC [T C U 12-0] BCS At-Large Boise St. 12-0
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 Florida Int’l 6-6 MAC #1 or 2 Toledo 8-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 Oklahoma St. 11-2 SEC #3-6 W Alabama 9-3
Birmingham Big East #5 Louisville 7-5 SEC #8 or 9 Georgia 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 [Temple 9-3] WAC #1 Fresno St. 7-5
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** Auburn 13-0 *** BCS #2 *** Oregon 12-0

 

November 1, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: November 2-6, 2010

Ho-Hum Another Winning Weekend

 

Before we get too big of a swelled head and believe we can pick winners in our sleep, let us say that we were not pleased with this past weekend’s picks.  Yes, we had another winning week against the spread, but we have gotten to the point where 4-3 is not acceptable in this season of what looks like easy riches.  We went with underdogs in five picks and took the totals in two others.

 

Ralph Waldo Emerson said, “Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect.”  Lucky for us, we hope we can be called strong men, because we were prepared to go with 11 picks this week instead of seven.  Those four picks we did not make all lost.  For the season, our record against the spread is 47-22-2, dropping us to 68.1% against the spread.  Here is how it went:

 

1. St. Louis Rams +3 vs. Carolina Panthers

WON

 

We did not feel that one win over a week San Francisco team was the telltale sign that Carolina was on the verge of a major turnaround.  We liked Sam Bradford’s consistent improvement with experience, and we told you we believed the Rams would win outright.

 

2. Miami Dolphins +2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

WON

 

As we stated in Thursday’s Email to our subscribers, we could not believe the Dolphins were not at least five-point favorites in this game.  If the odds makers continue to treat the Bengals like it was the first half of the 2009 season, then we won’t complain.

 

3. Buffalo Bills +7 ½ vs. Kansas City Chiefs

WON

 

Buffalo had a near miss against Baltimore, and we applauded their offensive changes.  We thought that with anything close to a repeat performance could give the Bills an upset win.  We loved the extra hook in the spread, and it became a solid pick.  When the game went to overtime, we were safe.

 

4. Tennessee Titans +4 vs. San Diego Chargers

Lost

 

We were hurt by two injuries in this game, one of them critical.  Kenny Britt went down early in the first quarter and was lost for the game.  Vince Young was off to a great start, and he ran out of weapons as the game wore on.  Then, he went down in the 4th quarter.  With Kerry Collins in the game, the Chargers could bottle up Chris Johnson, and with no Britt, Collins had little left to pass deep.

 

5. Seattle Seahawks +2 ½ vs. Oakland Raiders

Lost

 

Break up the Raiders!  How did they get Daryle Lamonica, Ben Davidson, Fred Biletnikoff, Art Shell, and the rest of the 1967 team through the fountain of youth?  Who would have thought that the Chiefs and Raiders would be fighting it out once again for the West Division title?  We goofed big time on this one.

 

6. Green Bay Packers & New York Jets OVER 42

Lost

 

Talk about blowing one big time, this game produced no touchdowns.  We thought that with a week off, the Jets would have their offense running smoothly.  We also thought that the Packers’ defense would be a little off after playing the Vikings on Monday Night Football.  It looked like the Lombardi Packers out there Sunday.

 

7. New Orleans Saints & Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 44 ½

WON

 

We were saved by the Sunday night game.  We felt that the Steelers would not allow the Saints to score 24 points in this game.  This was the best defense New Orleans has faced, and they have been having difficulty scoring.  We figured Pittsburgh would not score 20, and we were correct.

 

An Interesting Week of College Football

 

This will be an exciting week in the college football world.  There are games every night beginning Tuesday, and there will be reason to tune them in.

 

Tuesday night, Middle Tennessee travels to Arkansas State.  While we will not pick this game against the spread, because we pick our games late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning to get them to our subscribers by Thursday afternoon.  This game has added importance now that UL-Monroe knocked off Troy.  Middle Tennessee has one conference loss, while Arkansas State has two.  The loser will be out of the conference race, while the winner will have a chance should Troy fall again.  Additionally, the winner will be in good shape in the bowl picture, while the loser will be on thin ice.

 

Wednesday night, Rutgers visits South Florida.  The winner will emerge with a 5-3 record and an almost certain chance to become bowl eligible.  With Notre Dame falling out of the bowl picture for now, it looks like the Big East will need six bowl eligible teams.

 

Thursday night, Georgia Tech visits Virginia Tech, and the Hokies look like the class of the ACC.  If VT continues to win out and advances to the Orange Bowl, it will help Boise State stay in contention for the National Championship Game.  They would almost assuredly need an Oregon State victory over Oregon as well.

 

Friday night Central Florida plays at Houston in what could be a preview of the Conference USA Championship Game. 

 

On Saturday, there are several great games with important repercussions.  Arizona plays at Stanford.  The winner stays in contention for a possible BCS at-large bowl bid.  Stanford’s road to 11-1 is considerably easier than Arizona’s.

 

Illinois plays at Michigan.  Should the Illini win, expect the heat to come back under the seat of Coach Rich Rodriguez.  Ron Zook’s seat has cooled with Illinois on its way to a bowl game this year.

 

Virginia’s game at Duke did not look important a week ago, but after the Cavaliers knocked off Miami, this game became important.  Duke is coming off a big win against Navy, and they believe they can beat UVA.  Virginia is now in the bowl picture, and this becomes a must-win game.

 

Louisville ventures to Syracuse, where the Orange have become a conference champion contender.  The Cardinals are on the precipice of being good, and it is not impossible to see them pulling off a mild upset.  UL needs an upset to have a shot at a bowl.

 

Baylor plays at Oklahoma State in a game that now has direct bearing on the Big 12 South title.  Both teams have one conference loss, and both must still face Oklahoma.  The winner will have eight victories and move into Cotton Bowl contention as well.

 

North Carolina State plays at Clemson.  Coming off the upset of Florida State, the Wolfpack could be primed for a bounce, and Clemson needs an upset win.  After losing to Boston College, the Tigers are on the outside looking in for a bowl.  A loss here could send them to a 5-7 finish.

 

Oklahoma plays at Texas A&M, and if Ryan Tannehill has another day like he did against Texas Tech, the Aggies will have a chance to be there in the fourth quarter.  An upset would throw the South race wide open.  Oklahoma still has an outside shot at moving back to number two in the BCS, but we do not see it happening.  In fact, we believe they have a better chance of losing a second game this season.

 

Colorado must win at Kansas, or Dan Hawkins’ fate will be sealed.  The Buffalos are 3-5 and they have two other winnable games on the schedule.  We see them winning their fourth this weekend, but we aren’t so sure about those other two.  Hawkins may be finished in Boulder win or lose this week.

 

Texas faces Kansas State in the Little Apple, and this game is now a tossup.  The Longhorns could be in danger of falling all the way to 6-6 if they lose this game.  Kansas State needs one win to become bowl eligible, and they have North Texas at the end of the schedule to virtually guarantee that sixth win.  However, winning this game could move them up a couple notches in bowl priority.

 

Maryland plays at Miami, and the Hurricanes should be without quarterback Jacory Harris.  If Coach Randy Shannon chooses to play Harris after the QB suffered a concussion, then he should be put on the hot seat.  As for the Terps, they are now in strong contention in the ACC Atlantic Division.  With just one conference loss, they host Florida State and North Carolina State to conclude the regular season.

 

Arkansas visits South Carolina, where the winner stays in contention for the Capital One Bowl, Outback Bowl, and Cotton Bowl.  South Carolina could still win the automatic BCS Bowl bid, but we see that as a remote chance.

 

Air Force plays at Army, and the Black Knights have a chance to become bowl eligible.  This should be a great game.

 

Alabama ventures to Baton Rouge to take on LSU.  The winner stays in contention for the SEC West title and National Championship Game, while the loser can probably start making plans for the Cotton Bowl.

 

Hawaii is on a roll.  The Warriors have won six games in a row by an average score of 46-16.  Included in that streak are victories over Fresno State and Nevada.  Can the Warriors, who ranked 26th in the AP poll give Boise State a close game at the field of blue?  A Bronco win in this game coupled with Auburn facing Chattanooga could allow BSU to jump over Auburn.

 

The Big Game of the Week

 

#3 T C U has a chance to jump into the Championship Game picture with a win at #5 Utah in what has to be considered the game of the week.  The two undefeated teams will battle it out in Salt Lake City, and the Utes have major revenge on their minds after last season’s humiliating loss in Ft. Worth.  The game will be televised on the CBS College Sports Network, and that network is offering a free preview this week.  If you have Dish Network, Charter Communications Cable, or Time Warner Cable, you should be able to receive this game.  Check with your local cable company if not.

 

The Pi-Rate Ratings For The Week

 

NCAA Top 25 November 1, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Oregon 134.0 8 0
2 T C U 129.5 8 0
3 Boise State 129.4 7 0
4 Alabama 128.6 7 1
5 Oklahoma 126.2 7 1
6 Ohio State 125.8 8 1
7 Stanford 124.9 7 1
8 Auburn 124.5 9 0
9 Iowa 123.6 6 2
10 Nebraska 122.8 7 1
11 Arkansas 122.8 6 2
12 Virginia Tech 121.6 6 2
13 Florida State 120.9 6 2
14 South Carolina 119.8 6 2
15 Utah 119.5 8 0
16 Wisconsin 119.3 7 1
17 Arizona 119.2 7 1
18 Missouri 118.9 7 1
19 Oregon State 117.2 4 3
20 Miami (Fla) 117.1 5 3
21 Florida 116.2 5 3
22 North Carolina 116.0 5 3
23 Georgia 115.6 4 5
24 Southern Cal 114.9 5 3
25 Mississippi State 114.6 7 2
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 4-1 6-2 120.9
Clemson 2-3 4-4 112.5
North Carolina State 3-1 6-2 107.3
Boston College 1-4 3-5 104.5
Maryland 3-1 6-2 99.9
Wake Forest 1-4 2-6 93.8
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 4-0 6-2 121.6
Miami-FL 3-2 5-3 117.1
North Carolina 2-2 5-3 116.0
Georgia Tech 3-2 5-3 111.9
Virginia 1-3 4-4 96.9
Duke 0-4 2-6 93.1

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Pittsburgh 3-0 5-3 111.5
West Virginia 1-2 5-3 111.5
Cincinnati 1-2 3-5 105.0
South Florida 1-2 4-3 104.5
Connecticut 1-2 4-4 104.2
Syracuse 3-1 6-2 103.5
Louisville 1-2 4-4 101.7
Rutgers 1-1 4-3 93.1

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 4-1 8-1 125.8
Iowa 3-1 6-2 123.6
Wisconsin 3-1 7-1 119.3
Michigan State 4-1 8-1 111.9
Michigan 1-3 5-3 106.2
Illinois 3-2 5-3 106.6
Penn State 2-2 5-3 105.6
Northwestern 2-2 6-2 96.4
Purdue 2-2 4-4 90.9
Minnesota 0-5 1-8 91.1
Indiana 0-4 4-4 89.7

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 3-1 7-1 122.8
Missouri 3-1 7-1 118.9
Colorado 0-4 3-5 100.8
Kansas State 2-3 5-3 97.8
Iowa State 3-2 5-4 94.0
Kansas 0-4 2-6 86.8
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 3-1 7-1 126.2
Texas A&M 2-2 5-3 114.3
Texas 2-3 4-4 112.5
Baylor 4-1 7-2 110.3
Oklahoma State 3-1 7-1 109.3
Texas Tech 2-4 4-4 103.0

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 4-0 6-2 103.0
East Carolina 4-1 5-3 95.8
Southern Mississippi 2-2 5-3 94.4
U A B 2-2 3-5 90.2
Marshall 1-3 2-6 82.0
Memphis 0-5 1-7 69.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 4-1 5-3 101.1
Tulsa 2-2 5-3 95.2
S M U 4-1 5-4 94.0
Rice 1-3 2-6 83.6
U T E P 2-4 5-4 82.0
Tulane 1-3 3-5 77.8

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   4-5 103.5
Navy   5-3 101.6
Army   5-3 89.2

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 4-1 7-2 95.2
Ohio U 4-1 6-3 89.9
Miami (O) 4-1 5-4 86.5
Kent St. 3-2 4-4 86.3
Bowling Green 1-4 2-7 77.6
Buffalo 1-3 2-6 76.9
Akron 0-5 0-9 64.4
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 5-0 7-2 98.6
Toledo 5-0 6-3 88.2
Western Michigan 2-2 3-5 84.2
Central Michigan 1-5 2-7 81.1
Ball State 1-4 2-7 75.2
Eastern Michigan 1-4 1-8 67.7

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 5-0 9-0 129.5
Utah 5-0 8-0 119.5
Air Force 3-3 5-4 105.8
S. D. State 3-1 6-2 100.0
B Y U 2-2 3-5 97.3
Wyoming 0-5 2-7 91.2
Colo. State 2-3 3-6 87.1
UNLV 1-3 1-7 85.0
New Mexico 0-4 0-8 72.9

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 5-0 8-0 134.0
Stanford 4-1 7-1 124.9
Arizona 4-1 7-1 119.2
Oregon St. 3-1 4-3 117.2
Southern Cal 2-3 5-3 114.9
California 2-3 4-4 112.9
Arizona St. 2-3 4-4 107.0
U C L A 1-4 3-5 104.5
Washington 2-3 3-5 103.8
Washington State 0-6 1-8 89.6

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 4-2 6-2 119.8
Florida 3-3 5-3 116.2
Georgia 3-4 4-5 115.6
Kentucky 1-5 4-5 108.2
Tennessee 0-5 2-6 99.4
Vanderbilt 1-4 2-6 92.7
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 4-1 7-1 128.6
Auburn 6-0 9-0 124.5
Arkansas 3-2 6-2 122.8
Mississippi State 3-2 7-2 114.6
L S U 4-1 7-1 113.9
Ole Miss 1-4 3-5 104.1

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 3-1 4-3 87.6
Middle Tennessee 2-1 3-4 85.9
Florida International 2-1 2-5 84.1
Arkansas State 3-2 3-5 82.1
Florida Atlantic 1-3 2-5 78.9
Louisiana-Monroe 3-2 4-4 77.8
North Texas 2-3 2-6 77.8
U. of Louisiana 2-3 2-6 76.6
Western Kentucky 1-3 1-7 73.1

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 3-0 7-0 129.4
Nevada 2-1 7-1 107.5
Hawaii 5-0 7-2 106.7
Fresno State 3-1 5-2 96.7
Louisiana Tech 2-2 3-5 94.9
Utah State 0-4 2-6 90.7
Idaho 1-2 4-4 89.8
San Jose State 0-4 1-8 78.3
New Mexico State 1-3 2-6 72.8

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 2      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Middle Tennessee ARKANSAS STATE 0.8 29-28
       
Wednesday, November 3      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
SOUTH FLORIDA Rutgers 14.9 35-20
       
Thursday, November 4      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
OHIO U Buffalo 16.0 33-17
VIRGINIA TECH Georgia Tech 13.2 34-21
       
Friday, November 5      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Western Michigan CENTRAL MICHIGAN 0.6 25-24
HOUSTON Central Florida 1.6 35-33
       
Saturday, November 6      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
STANFORD Arizona 9.2 33-24
Oregon State U C L A 9.7 31-21
FLORIDA STATE North Carolina 7.9 31-23
Nebraska IOWA STATE 25.8 38-12
Iowa INDIANA 30.9 44-13
Florida Atlantic WESTERN KENTUCKY 3.3 27-24
MICHIGAN STATE Minnesota 23.8 41-17
MICHIGAN Illinois 2.6 34-31
OLE MISS Louisiana Lafayette 30.5 48-17
Virginia DUKE 0.8 27-26
Boston College WAKE FOREST 7.7 28-20
SYRACUSE Louisville 4.8 21-16
OKLAHOMA STATE Baylor 2.0 33-31
TULSA Rice 14.6 38-23
PENN STATE Northwestern 12.7 33-20
CLEMSON North Carolina State 8.2 32-24
Florida VANDERBILT 21.0 28-7
Oklahoma TEXAS A&M 8.9 33-24
Troy NORTH TEXAS 6.8 31-24
California WASHINGTON STATE 20.8 35-14
FLORIDA INT’L UL-Monroe 9.3 30-21
Colorado KANSAS 11.0 28-17
Texas KANSAS STATE 11.7 26-14
MIAMI (FL) Maryland 20.2 34-14
OREGON Washington 33.7 51-17
Wisconsin PURDUE 25.4 41-16
SOUTH CAROLINA Arkansas 0.5 25-24
Missouri TEXAS TECH 12.9 41-28
Air Force ARMY 13.1 23-10
BALL STATE Akron 13.3 25-12
BOISE STATE Hawaii 26.2 50-24
B Y U U n l v 15.3 24-9
Temple KENT STATE 6.4 20-14
UTAH STATE New Mexico State 20.9 42-21
Navy EAST CAROLINA 2.8 34-31
T c u UTAH 6.5 27-21
Southern Miss TULANE 13.6 34-20
LOUISIANA TECH Fresno State 1.7 27-25
U A B Marshall 11.2 35-24
Nevada IDAHO 14.7 42-27
Wyoming NEW MEXICO 15.8 26-10
Alabama L S U 11.7 26-14
Tennessee MEMPHIS 27.0 40-13
S m u U T E P 9.0 35-26
SAN DIEGO STATE Colorado State 15.9 35-19
SOUTHERN CAL Arizona State 10.9 35-24

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, November 2      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
ARKANSAS STATE Middle Tennessee 29-24 31-24
       
Wednesday, November 3      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
SOUTH FLORIDA Rutgers 30-24 34-24
       
Thursday, November 4      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
OHIO U Buffalo 30-14 33-17
VIRGINIA TECH Georgia Tech 35-20 35-20
       
Friday, November 5      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Western Michigan CENTRAL MICHIGAN 26-24 28-14
Central Florida HOUSTON 34-31 30-34
       
Saturday, November 6      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
STANFORD Arizona 30-24 28-23
Oregon State U C L A 31-23 34-20
FLORIDA STATE North Carolina 28-19 30-17
Nebraska IOWA STATE 37-21 41-16
Iowa INDIANA 40-17 38-21
Florida Atlantic WESTERN KENTUCKY 26-24 28-17
MICHIGAN STATE Minnesota 44-20 45-20
Illinois MICHIGAN 36-34 35-38
OLE MISS Louisiana Lafayette 41-18 44-19
Virginia DUKE 24-21 27-18
Boston College WAKE FOREST 35-31 34-17
SYRACUSE Louisville 26-21 27-16
OKLAHOMA STATE Baylor 35-27 31-27
TULSA Rice 48-29 45-28
PENN STATE Northwestern 31-22 28-17
North Carolina State CLEMSON 31-30 30-31
Florida VANDERBILT 23-7 27-7
Oklahoma TEXAS A&M 34-27 34-21
Troy NORTH TEXAS 40-31 41-27
California WASHINGTON STATE 34-17 35-17
FLORIDA INT’L UL-Monroe 24-19 16-26
Colorado KANSAS 27-18 26-14
KANSAS STATE Texas 24-21 20-24
MIAMI (FL) Maryland 35-24 28-23
OREGON Washington 52-24 56-17
Wisconsin PURDUE 35-18 38-17
SOUTH CAROLINA Arkansas 28-26 27-26
Missouri TEXAS TECH 45-34 45-31
Air Force ARMY 20-13 21-17
BALL STATE Akron 27-14 20-16
BOISE STATE Hawaii 49-31 48-31
B Y U U n l v 30-14 31-10
Temple KENT STATE 23-16 27-13
UTAH STATE New Mexico State 37-21 33-24
EAST CAROLINA Navy 37-35 37-31
T c u UTAH 21-19 17-13
Southern Miss TULANE 35-27 34-20
Fresno State LOUISIANA TECH 27-26 23-31
U A B Marshall 35-26 35-26
Nevada IDAHO 40-28 41-28
Wyoming NEW MEXICO 31-16 27-20
Alabama L S U 24-20 24-14
Tennessee MEMPHIS 31-14 34-18
S m u U T E P 36-28 38-28
SAN DIEGO STATE Colorado State 35-19 34-20
SOUTHERN CAL Arizona State 38-28 38-28

 

This Week’s Bowl Projections

Bowl Conference vs. Conference Prediction Prediction
New Mexico MWC #4 or (5) vs. WAC (#3?) (La. Monroe 7-5) Louisiana Tech 7-5
Humanitarian MAC #3 vs. WAC #(1) or 2 Temple 9-3 Nevada 9-3
New Orleans Sunbelt #(1) or 2 vs. C-USA #5 Troy 8-4 Tulsa 8-4
St. Petersburg Big East #6 vs. C-USA #4-6 Connecticut 6-6 East Carolina 8-4
Las Vegas MWC #1 vs. Pac 10 #5 Utah 11-1 (Ohio U 8-4)
Poinsettia MWC #2 vs. Navy or WAC San Diego St. 8-4 Navy 7-5
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3/4 vs. C-USA #2-6 Hawaii 10-3 S M U 7-5
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8/SBC vs. MAC #1-2 Northwestern 6-6 Northern Ill. 11-2
Independence ACC #7 vs. MWC #3 Clemson 6-6 B Y U 6-6
Champs Sports Big East #2 vs. ACC #3 South Fla. 7-5 Fla. State 9-4
Insight Big 12 #4 vs. Big 10 #4 or 5 Okla. State 10-2 Penn State 8-4
Military ACC #8 vs. C-USA #6 Maryland 6-6 Southern Miss 7-5
Texas Big 12 #6-7 vs. Big 10 #6-7 Texas A&M 6-6 Illinois 8-4
Alamo Big 12 #3 vs. Pac 10 #2 Missouri 11-1 Arizona 9-3
Armed Forces C-USA #3-4 vs. MWC #3-5/Army Houston 8-5 Air Force 8-4
Pinstripe Big East #3-4 vs. Big 12 #6-7 Pittsburgh 7-5 Texas 6-6
Music City SEC # 7 vs. ACC #6 Tennessee 6-6 North Carolina 6-6
Holiday Big 12 #5 vs. Pac 10 #3 Baylor 8-4 Oregon State 7-5
Meineke Car Care ACC #4-5 vs. Big East #3-4 Georgia Tech 7-5 West Va. 7-5
Sun ACC #4 or 5 vs. Pac 10 #4 Miami (F) 7-5 California 6-6
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 vs. C-USA #1 Kentucky 6-6 Central Fla. 10-3
Chick-fil-A SEC #3-6 vs. ACC #2 Miss. State 8-4 North Car. St. 9-3
Dallas Football Classic Big 10 #6-7 vs. Big 12 #8/CUSA Michigan 7-5 Kansas St. 7-5
Outback SEC #3-6 E vs. Big 10 #3 Florida 9-4 Ohio State 10-2
Capital One Big 10 #2 vs. SEC #2 Iowa 10-2 Arkansas 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 vs. SEC #6 Michigan St. 10-2 South Carolina 8-4
Rose BCS Pac10 vs. BCS Big 10 Stanford 11-1 Wisconsin 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 vs. BCS At-Large Oklahoma 12-1 Syracuse 10-2
Orange BCS ACC vs. BCS At-Large Va. Tech 11-2 T C U 12-0
Sugar BCS SEC vs. BCS At-Large Auburn 11-1 Boise St. 12-0
GoDaddy.com Sunbelt # 2 vs. MAC #1 or 2 Middle Tenn. 7-5 Toledo 8-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 vs. SEC #3-6 W Nebraska 11-2 L S U 9-3
Birmingham Big East #5 vs. SEC #8 or 9 Louisville 6-6 Georgia 6-6
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 vs. WAC #1 (Miami (O) 8-5) Fresno St. 6-6
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** vs. *** BCS #2 *** Oregon 12-0 Alabama 12-1
           
Teams in (Parentheses) are at-large bids

October 25, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 26-30, 2010

PiRate Picks Continue The Winning Streak

 Eight for eight!  Yes, we have now had a winning weekend for all eight weeks of the season.  Our most recent showing produced a 6-3 record against the spread.

 Unlike previous weeks where the NFL games did it for us, it was our college sweetheart teaser plays that made it another profitable weekend.  We know from e-mails that many of you like only the college games.  You have told us that you are only breaking even playing our college games.  Well, you got a 4-0 weekend by playing our four college picks.

Our record for the year is now 43-19-2 for 69.4%.  We don’t officially break our picks down by college and pro picks, because there could be weeks where we combine college and pro games in a teaser or moneyline parlay.  While some of you follow us strictly for our college selections, we issue our weekly selections to be played in total.  We also advise against playing an even amount of games, because finishing with a .500 mark against the spread is a losing proposition.

Here are how our picks finished.

1. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Navy +16 ½ vs. Notre Dame; Maryland +15 vs. Boston College; Minnesota +18 vs. Penn State

WON

2. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Northwestern +14 ½ vs. Michigan State; Syracuse +23 vs. West Virginia; Iowa State +31 vs. Texas

WON

3. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Arkansas Pk vs. Ole Miss; Hawaii +7 vs. Utah State; California +7 vs. Arizona State

WON

. 10-point Sweetheart Teaser: Alabama -7 vs. Tennessee; South Carolina -1 ½ vs. Vanderbilt; Georgia +5 vs. Kentucky

WON

5. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs. Miami Dolphins

Lost

6. Atlanta Falcons -3 ½ vs. Cincinnati Bengals

WON

7. Chicago Bears -3 vs. Washington Redskins

Lost

8. San Diego Chargers -2 ½ vs. New England

Lost

9. Oakland +7 ½ vs. Denver

WON

A Look At The BCS Conferences

A C C

Atlantic Division

Florida State plays at North Carolina State Thursday night, and the winner will be in control in the division.  We think that the Wolfpack could pull off the minor upset, but NCSU has three tough road games to play.  They will not go 3-0 playing at Clemson, North Carolina, and Maryland.  So, we are sticking with our guns here and going with the Seminoles to win the division at 7-1 in the league.

Maryland has just one loss in conference play, and they finish the season by hosting Florida State and North Carolina State.  The Terrapins must still play at Miami, so it will be close to impossible to win the division outright.  There is a chance they could figure in a tie at 6-2, but we believe they will fall to 5-3 or 4-4.

Clemson is out of the picture in the division race, but we believe the Tigers will get to eight wins and garner a decent bowl.

Coastal Division

Virginia Tech looks pretty after beginning 0-2.  The Hokies have run roughshod over six consecutive opponents.  They get two weeks to prepare for Georgia Tech, and then the only tough game left to play is the November 20 contest at Miami.  We give VT a great chance of running the table.

Miami should finish second in the division, while North Carolina and Georgia Tech go 4-4.  Virginia is lurking in the shadows.  The Cavaliers were not supposed to contend this season, yet they are 3-4 overall.  UVA has games with Duke, Maryland, and Boston College, so there is an outside chance they could finish 6-6.  We think they will come up a bit short.

1. BCS Bowl (Orange): Virginia Tech

2. Chick-fil-A Bowl: Florida State

3. Champs Sports Bowl: Miami

4. Sun Bowl: Clemson

5. Meineke Car Care Bowl: North Carolina State

6. Music City Bowl: North Carolina

7. Independence Bowl: Maryland

8. Eagle Bank Bowl: Georgia Tech

 Big East

This conference’s automatic BCS Bowl invitation should be revoked this year and given to the Mountain West Conference.  Nobody in this league even deserves the Champs Sports Bowl Bid!

The race is still up for grabs between everybody but Connecticut.  We do not see any team going 6-1.  5-2 should be enough to win the league.  Pittsburgh and Syracuse seem to have the best chances of getting to 5-2, but we think Cincinnati has a good chance of catching fire and winning four of five to get to 5-2 as well.  The Bearcats have home games with Syracuse, Rutgers, and Pitt, and road games against West Virginia and Connecticut.

 West Virginia has the talent to win the league, but they play too inconsistently.  We think the Mountaineers could be headed to a 4-3 league mark.  South Florida should join them at that level, and we believe Louisville could surprise a couple of teams and get there as well.  It all adds up to horrendous mediocrity.  If Pitt, Syracuse, and Cincinnati end at 5-2, then the Bearcats will sneak into a BCS Bowl at 7-5 overall.

 1. BCS Bowl (Fiesta): Cincinnati

2. Champs Sports Bowl: Syracuse

3. Meineke Car Care Bowl: West Virginia

4. Pinstripe Bowl: Notre Dame

5. PapaJohns Bowl: South Florida

6. St. Petersburg Bowl: Pittsburgh

At-Large: Las Vegas Bowl: Louisville fills in for vacant Pac-10 slot

Big Ten

You will notice that our ratings fail to rank 8-0 Michigan State in the PiRate Top 25.  The Spartans have sort of fallen through the cracks in the way our computer system rates teams.  A win at Iowa is almost assured to move MSU up several spots, but we are unenthusiastic about calling for that win.  Thus, we do not believe a Big Ten team will play for the national championship. 

We feel the Spartans will finish 7-1 in league play, finishing in a three-way tie with Iowa and Wisconsin.  The tiebreaking procedure would give Michigan State the Rose Bowl bid.  We believe that an 11-1 Wisconsin team would receive one of the at-large BCS Bowl Bids over a 12-0 TCU/Utah team (assuming Boise State finishes 12-0 as well).

Ohio State must still visit Iowa, so we believe the Buckeyes could lose another game.  Should Ohio State beat Iowa and finish 7-1 along with Wisconsin and Michigan State, then the one with the highest BCS rating will get the bid.  It is too early to predict that.

1. BCS Bowl (Rose): Michigan State

1a. At-Large BCS Bowl (Sugar): Wisconsin

2. Capitol One Bowl: Ohio State

3. Outback Bowl: Iowa

4. Gator Bowl: Michigan

5. Insight Bowl: Illinois

6. Texas Bowl: Northwestern

7. Dallas Football Classic: Penn State

8. Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl: No available team

Big 12

Missouri must face Nebraska in Lincoln this week.  Coming off the major upset over the number one BCS team tends to make one believe that the Tigers will bounce and fall to the Cornhuskers.  There is one thing in their favor; the officiating should be as biased against Nebraska as it was in the game with Texas.  Any close call will go in Mizzou’s favor.

 We still believe that Bo’s boys will prevail and eliminate the last undefeated Big 12 team.  That would give Nebraska the division title in a tie.

 As for the South, Oklahoma should still win and finish 7-1, but don’t count out Oklahoma State just yet.  The Cowboys have a shot.

 A hearty congratulation goes out to Art Briles at Baylor.  The Bears are now bowl eligible at 6-2, and they actually remain in contention for the South Division flag.  They would have to win at Texas, at Oklahoma State, and beat Texas A&M at home before they would get Oklahoma at home to conclude the regular season.

 There are going to be several teams contending for their important sixth win and bowl eligibility.  We tend to believe Colorado has played themselves out of the mix, and thus Dan Hawkins’ days in Boulder are numbered.  Iowa State should handle Kansas, but then the Cyclones face Nebraska, Colorado, and Missouri to close out the regular season.  They need two wins, and they could beat Colorado, but this figures to be Hawkins’ last home game.

1. BCS Bowl (Fiesta): Oklahoma

2. Cotton Bowl: Missouri

3. Alamo Bowl: Nebraska

4. Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State

5. Holiday Bowl: Texas

6. Texas Bowl: Baylor

7. Pinstripe Bowl: Texas A&M

8. Dallas Football Classic: Texas Tech

At-large Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Kansas State fills in for vacant Pac-10 slot

Pac-10

If Oregon knocks off Southern Cal this weekend, then we believe the Ducks will run the table and secure a spot in the National Championship Game.  If USC wins, then the Ducks will quack in the Rose Bowl instead.  We are going to say Oregon goes 12-0 (we may possibly play against them in the official picks against the spread, so don’t take this as a statement that we are picking Oregon this week).

There is a lot of mediocrity in the second half of the standings, and the Trojans are not bowl-eligible this year due to probation.  Throw in the possibility that Stanford could earn an at-large BCS bowl bid, and there is not much chance the league will be able to fill its bowl allotments.  We believe they could fall two spots short.

1. BCS Bowl (National Championship Game): Oregon

1a. at-large BCS Bowl (Sugar): Stanford

2. Alamo Bowl: Arizona

3. Holiday Bowl: California

4. Sun Bowl: Oregon State

5. Las Vegas Bowl: No Team Available

6. Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: No Team Available

S E C

Auburn rests at the top of the BCS standings after beating LSU, but we don’t believe the Tigers will be there on November 28.  We think they will lose to Alabama in the season finale but qualify as an at-large BCS Bowl member.

Alabama could sneak back into the number two spot by winning out, omitting a 12-0 Boise State team that has a virtual road win over another BCS Bowl team.  The Broncos could still win the AP National Championship by winning big in their bowl.

LSU and Arkansas should both finish with better records than any East Division team.  Mississippi State could as well, meaning the top five teams come from the West Division.

The East race is up for grabs.  Georgia began the season 0-3 in league play, but we feel like the Bulldogs will finish 4-4 and grab a piece of the flag.  Florida and South Carolina look to be heading to a 4-4 finish, assuming the Gators beat the Gamecocks, and the Gamecocks lose to Arkansas.  If Kentucky can upset Mississippi State in Starkville, then the Wildcats will have an excellent chance at going 4-4 in league play as well.  Vanderbilt should be an easy win, and Tennessee would be very winnable for the Wildcats.  UK has lost 25 in a row to the Vols, and this looks like the year it should end.

1. BCS Bowl (National Championship Game): Alabama

1a. at-large BCS Bowl (Rose): Auburn

2. Capitol One Bowl: Arkansas

3. Cotton Bowl: L S U

4. Outback Bowl: Florida

5. Chick-fil-A Bowl: Georgia

6. Gator Bowl: Mississippi State

7. Music City Bowl: Kentucky

8. Liberty Bowl: South Carolina

9. PapaJohns Bowl: No Team Available

The PiRate Ratings Top 25 For October 25, 2010

 

Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Oregon 132.8 7 0
2 Boise State 129.8 6 0
3 Alabama 128.6 7 1
4 T C U 128.4 7 0
5 Oklahoma 125.4 6 1
6 Auburn 123.5 8 0
7 Ohio State 123.5 7 1
8 Florida State 123.0 6 1
9 Arkansas 121.7 5 2
10 Virginia Tech 121.6 6 2
11 Stanford 121.4 6 1
12 Iowa 121.1 5 2
13 Missouri 120.9 7 0
14 South Carolina 120.8 5 2
15 Nebraska 120.8 6 1
16 Utah 120.2 7 0
17 Miami (Fla) 119.8 5 2
18 Wisconsin 119.3 7 1
19 Arizona 118.9 6 1
20 North Carolina 116.7 4 3
21 Southern Cal 116.1 5 2
22 California 115.7 4 3
23 Georgia 115.6 4 4
24 Clemson 115.0 4 3
25 Mississippi State 114.9 6 2
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

  

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 4-0 6-1 123.0
Clemson 2-2 4-3 115.0
North Carolina State 2-1 5-2 105.2
Boston College 0-4 2-5 102.1
Wake Forest 1-3 2-5 98.8
Maryland 2-1 5-2 96.9
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 4-0 6-2 121.6
Miami-FL 3-1 5-2 119.8
North Carolina 2-2 4-3 116.7
Georgia Tech 3-2 5-3 111.9
Virginia 0-3 3-4 93.2
Duke 0-4 1-6 90.3

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 1-1 5-2 111.7
Pittsburgh 2-0 4-3 111.0
Cincinnati 1-1 3-4 108.2
South Florida 1-2 4-3 104.5
Connecticut 0-2 3-4 104.0
Louisville 1-1 4-3 102.2
Syracuse 2-1 5-2 100.8
Rutgers 1-1 4-3 93.1

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 3-1 7-1 123.5
Iowa 2-1 5-2 121.1
Wisconsin 3-1 7-1 119.3
Michigan State 4-0 8-0 114.7
Michigan 1-2 5-2 107.6
Illinois 2-2 4-3 104.5
Penn State 1-2 4-3 104.2
Northwestern 1-2 5-2 96.3
Purdue 2-1 4-3 93.4
Minnesota 0-4 1-7 93.1
Indiana 0-3 4-3 89.8

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Missouri 3-0 7-0 120.9
Nebraska 2-1 6-1 120.8
Colorado 0-3 3-4 101.7
Kansas State 2-2 5-2 98.3
Iowa State 2-2 4-4 93.4
Kansas 0-3 2-5 87.4
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 2-1 6-1 125.4
Texas 2-2 4-3 114.8
Texas A&M 1-2 4-3 112.8
Oklahoma State 2-1 6-1 108.8
Baylor 3-1 6-2 107.0
Texas Tech 2-3 4-3 104.5

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 3-0 5-2 101.5
East Carolina 4-0 5-2 96.8
Southern Mississippi 2-1 5-2 95.4
U A B 1-2 2-5 89.2
Marshall 0-3 1-6 81.6
Memphis 0-4 1-6 71.6
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 3-1 4-3 99.4
S M U 3-1 4-4 93.8
Tulsa 2-2 4-3 93.7
Rice 1-3 2-6 83.6
U T E P 2-3 5-3 82.4
Tulane 1-2 3-4 78.0

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   4-4 105.8
Navy   5-2 104.9
Army   4-3 90.0

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 3-1 6-2 93.7
Ohio U 4-1 5-3 91.4
Miami (O) 3-1 4-4 85.8
Kent St. 2-2 3-4 85.3
Buffalo 1-2 2-5 77.6
Bowling Green 0-4 1-7 76.3
Akron 0-4 0-8 64.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 4-0 6-2 98.9
Toledo 4-0 5-3 86.2
Central Michigan 1-4 2-6 84.4
Western Michigan 2-1 3-4 83.0
Ball State 1-3 2-6 76.2
Eastern Michigan 1-3 1-7 69.7

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 4-0 8-0 128.4
Utah 4-0 7-0 120.2
Air Force 3-2 5-3 105.1
S. D. State 2-1 5-2 99.6
B Y U 2-2 3-5 97.3
Wyoming 0-4 2-6 91.6
Colo. State 1-3 2-6 85.5
UNLV 1-2 1-6 85.4
New Mexico 0-3 0-7 74.5

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 4-0 7-0 132.8
Stanford 3-1 6-1 121.4
Arizona 3-1 6-1 118.9
Southern Cal 2-2 5-2 116.1
California 2-2 4-3 115.7
Oregon St. 2-1 3-3 113.4
Washington 2-2 3-4 106.8
U C L A 1-3 3-4 104.8
Arizona St. 1-3 3-4 104.3
Washington State 0-5 1-7 92.8

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 3-2 5-2 120.8
Georgia 3-3 4-4 115.6
Florida 2-3 4-3 114.7
Kentucky 1-4 4-4 107.9
Tennessee 0-4 2-5 98.1
Vanderbilt 1-3 2-5 93.8
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 4-1 7-1 128.6
Auburn 5-0 8-0 123.5
Arkansas 2-2 5-2 121.7
Mississippi State 2-2 6-2 114.9
L S U 4-1 7-1 113.9
Ole Miss 1-3 3-4 105.1

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 3-0 4-2 91.2
Middle Tennessee 2-1 3-4 85.9
Florida International 2-0 2-4 85.6
Arkansas State 3-2 3-5 82.1
Florida Atlantic 0-3 1-5 77.4
Western Kentucky 1-2 1-6 76.6
North Texas 1-3 1-6 75.8
U. of Louisiana 2-3 2-5 75.6
Louisiana-Monroe 2-2 3-4 74.2

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 2-0 6-0 129.8
Nevada 1-1 6-1 107.2
Hawaii 4-0 6-2 103.2
Fresno State 3-1 5-2 96.7
Louisiana Tech 2-1 3-4 94.5
Idaho 1-1 4-3 92.3
Utah State 0-3 2-5 91.0
San Jose State 0-3 1-7 79.3
New Mexico State 0-3 1-6 71.8

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings Spreads

 

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Tuesday, October 26      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
BOISE STATE Louisiana Tech 39.3 49-10
       
Thursday, October 28      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Florida State NORTH CAROLINA ST. 14.8 35-20
       
Friday, October 29      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
West Virginia CONNECTICUT 4.7 28-23
       
Saturday, October 30      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
ARKANSAS Vanderbilt 31.4 41-10
ARIZONA STATE Washington State 15.0 35-20
Arizona U C L A 11.1 28-17
IOWA STATE Kansas 9.0 23-14
Northwestern INDIANA 3.5 31-27
WESTERN KENTUCKY North Texas 3.3 34-31
Clemson BOSTON COLLEGE 9.9 27-17
MARYLAND Wake Forest 1.1 26-25
Auburn OLE MISS 15.4 42-27
NEBRASKA Missouri 3.4 27-24
OKLAHOMA Colorado 27.2 41-14
OREGON STATE California 0.7 28-27
PITTSBURGH Louisville 11.8 26-14
TEXAS A&M Texas Tech 11.3 38-27
TEXAS Baylor 10.8 31-20
Miami (Fl) VIRGINIA 23.6 34-10
Stanford WASHINGTON 11.6 35-23
MISSISSIPPI STATE Kentucky 10.0 34-24
ILLINOIS Purdue 14.1 31-17
CENTRAL FLORIDA East Carolina 7.7 35-27
CINCINNATI Syracuse 10.4 23-13
Florida Int’l FLORIDA ATLANTIC 5.7 27-21
IOWA Michigan State 9.9 31-21
Oklahoma State KANSAS STATE 7.5 38-30
Troy LOUISIANA-MONROE 14.5 35-20
NEVADA Utah State 19.2 40-21
SOUTH CAROLINA Tennessee 25.7 38-12
SOUTHERN MISS U  a  b 9.2 35-26
Northern Illinois WESTERN MICHIGAN 12.9 34-21
TEMPLE Akron 31.3 41-10
OHIO U Louisiana-Lafayette 18.8 31-12
KENT STATE Ball State 11.6 32-20
San Diego State WYOMING 5.0 31-26
NOTRE DAME Tulsa 15.6 40-24
MARSHALL U t e p 2.2 30-28
Georgia (Jacksonville) Florida 0.9 17-16
Miami (O) BUFFALO 5.7 23-17
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Bowling Green 11.1 34-23
NAVY Duke 17.6 38-20
S m u TULANE 13.3 37-24
San Jose State NEW MEXICO STATE 5.0 31-26
Toledo EASTERN MICHIGAN 14.0 35-21
COLORADO STATE New Mexico 14.0 24-10
Houston MEMPHIS 25.3 35-10
Utah AIR FORCE 11.6 32-20
Oregon SOUTHERN CAL 12.7 41-28
Ohio State MINNESOTA 27.4 34-7
PENN STATE Michigan 0.1 24-24 to ot
T c u U N L V 40.0 47-7
HAWAII Idaho 14.9 42-27

 

This Week’s Mean and Biased Ratings Spreads

 

Tuesday, October 26      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
BOISE STATE Louisiana Tech 45-14 45-17
       
Thursday, October 28      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Florida State NORTH CAROLINA ST. 31-26 27-31
       
Friday, October 29      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
West Virginia CONNECTICUT 27-21 27-16
       
Saturday, October 30      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
ARKANSAS Vanderbilt 31-10 38-10
ARIZONA STATE Washington State 34-17 31-20
Arizona U C L A 27-17 34-17
IOWA STATE Kansas 31-12 35-13
Northwestern INDIANA 35-32 37-30
WESTERN KENTUCKY North Texas 38-31 41-24
Clemson BOSTON COLLEGE 33-24 32-14
MARYLAND Wake Forest 28-19 28-20
Auburn OLE MISS 38-26 42-24
NEBRASKA Missouri 28-26 27-24
OKLAHOMA Colorado 38-17 45-14
OREGON STATE California 28-27 31-21
PITTSBURGH Louisville 24-14 23-17
TEXAS A&M Texas Tech 34-28 35-31
TEXAS Baylor 28-24 27-24
Miami (Fl) VIRGINIA 31-14 30-17
Stanford WASHINGTON 38-28 40-24
MISSISSIPPI STATE Kentucky 33-24 27-25
ILLINOIS Purdue 36-21 34-27
CENTRAL FLORIDA East Carolina 32-27 31-27
CINCINNATI Syracuse 23-16 21-17
Florida Int’l FLORIDA ATLANTIC 31-24 30-20
IOWA Michigan State 31-26 27-26
Oklahoma State KANSAS STATE 34-31 38-30
Troy LOUISIANA-MONROE 31-20 37-13
NEVADA Utah State 49-23 48-27
SOUTH CAROLINA Tennessee 31-12 31-13
SOUTHERN MISS U  a  b 40-28 41-31
Northern Illinois WESTERN MICHIGAN 30-21 35-16
TEMPLE Akron 37-7 41-7
OHIO U Louisiana-Lafayette 33-14 35-19
KENT STATE Ball State 30-21 31-21
San Diego State WYOMING 29-24 28-19
NOTRE DAME Tulsa 38-30 38-34
MARSHALL U t e p 26-25 27-23
Florida Georgia (Jacksonville) 20-19 14-23
Miami (O) BUFFALO 28-26 30-20
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Bowling Green 34-24 33-21
NAVY Duke 38-19 37-20
S m u TULANE 31-24 27-21
San Jose State NEW MEXICO STATE 27-22 20-24
Toledo EASTERN MICHIGAN 37-21 38-17
COLORADO STATE New Mexico 34-17 34-17
Houston MEMPHIS 31-14 31-16
Utah AIR FORCE 28-20 31-10
Oregon SOUTHERN CAL 35-27 38-28
Ohio State MINNESOTA 34-10 44-10
Michigan PENN STATE 28-28 to ot 30-26
T c u U N L V 42-7 48-0
HAWAII Idaho 41-27 44-27

 

PiRate Bowl Look

 

Bowl Conference Conference Team vs. Team
New Mexico MWC #4 or 5 WAC (#3?) San Diego St. 8-4 vs. La. Tech 7-5
Humanitarian MAC #3 WAC #1 or 2 Toledo 8-4 vs. Nevada 9-3
New Orleans Sunbelt #1 or 2 C-USA #5 Troy 9-3 vs. Tulsa 7-5
St. Petersburg Big East #6 C-USA #4 Pittsburgh 7-5 vs. S M U 7-6
Las Vegas MWC #1 Pac 10 #5 Utah 12-0 vs. (Louisville 7-5)
Poinsettia MWC #2 Navy or WAC T C U 11-1 vs. Navy 8-4
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3 C-USA #2 Hawaii 10-3 vs. East Carolina 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8 MAC #1 (Army 7-5) vs. Northern Ill. 11-2
Independence ACC #7 MWC #3 Maryland 7-5 vs. Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports Big East #2 ACC #3 Syracuse 9-3 vs. Miami (F) 9-3
Insight Big 12 #4 Big 10 #4 or 5 Oklahoma St. 10-2 vs. Illinois 7-5
Eagle Bank ACC #8 C-USA #6 Georgia Tech 6-6 vs. Houston 6-6
Texas Big 12 #6 Big 10 #6 Baylor 7-5 vs. Northwestern 7-5
Alamo Big 12 #3 Pac 10 #2 Nebraska 11-2 vs. Arizona 9-3
Armed Forces C-USA #3 MWC #4 or 5 Southern Miss. 8-4 vs. B Y U 6-6
Pinstripe Big East #4 Big 12 #7 Notre Dame 6-6 vs. Texas A&M 6-6
Music City SEC # 7 ACC #6 Kentucky 7-5 vs. North Carolina 7-5
Holiday Big 12 #5 Pac 10 #3 Texas 7-5 vs. California 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #5 Big East #3 N. Carolina St. 8-4 vs. West Va. 8-4
Sun ACC #4 Pac 10 #4 Clemson 8-4 vs. Oregon St. 6-6
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 C-USA #1 South Carolina 7-5 vs. Central Florida 10-2
Chick-fil-A SEC #5 ACC #2 Georgia 7-6 vs. Florida St. 10-3
Dallas Football Classic Big 10 #7 Big 12 #8 Penn State 6-6 vs. Texas Tech 6-6
Outback SEC #3 or 4 Big 10 #3 Florida 7-5 vs. Iowa 10-2
Capital One Big 10 #2 SEC #2 Ohio State 10-2 vs. Arkansas 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 SEC #6 Michigan 8-4 vs. Miss. State 8-4
Rose BCS Pac10 BCS Big 10 Auburn 11-1 vs. Michigan St. 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 BCS At-Large Oklahoma 12-1 vs. Cincinnati 7-5
Orange BCS ACC BCS At-Large Virginia Tech 11-2 vs. Boise St. 12-0
Sugar BCS SEC BCS At-Large Wisconsin 11-1 vs. Stanford 11-1
G M A C Sunbelt #1 or 2 MAC #2 Middle Tenn. 7-5 vs. Temple 9-3
Cotton Big 12 #2 SEC #3 or 4 Missouri 11-1 vs. L S U 9-3
Papajohns.com Big East #5 SEC #8 or 9 South Florida 7-5 vs. (Miami (O)) 8-5
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 WAC (Kansas State 7-5) vs. Fresno St. 6-6
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** *** BCS #2 *** Oregon 12-0 vs. Alabama 12-1

 

October 18, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 21-23, 2010

Another Winning Week Against The Spread

Seven for seven!  It has been a number of years since we started out with seven consecutive winning weeks.  The parity in the NFL has made sweetheart teasers much easier to play this year, but we decided to play straight up this past week.  We still won, finishing 5-2 for the week and making our record for the season 37-16-2.  Let’s take a look at how it went:

 

1. Miami (O) +13 vs. Central Michigan

WON 

As we told all of those who purchased our picks, we thought the wrong team was a double-digit favorite.  The populace getting action on this game went on recent year data.  Yes, CMU was a league power under Brian Kelly and Butch Jones, going 38-17 in the prior four seasons and winning two bowl games.  The Chippewas lost to Ball State a couple weeks ago! 

 

Miami won two games or less three of the previous four seasons, including a 1-11 mark last year.  They have not had a winning season since Josh Betts was a junior in Oxford.  However, this year, the Redhawks are a prime contender in the MAC East.  We picked this “upset” outright. 

2. Georgia -14 vs. Vanderbilt

WON

 

Those of you who have followed our picks for awhile know we do not consider any games a “lock of the week”, “four-star pick,” “guaranteed game of the year,” etc.  We treat every selection equally, as one we think should win and nothing else.  However, we did state that this line was a joke and could be a mortgage-burning game. 

We called for Georgia to win by four touchdowns, and the Bulldogs won 43-0.  This game fell under three major categories as a game to consider.  First, Georgia won by 27 at home over a conference foe that was not an arch-rival the week before and then stayed at home to face a weaker rival the following week.  Second, the weaker opponent won over a patsy at home the week before and had to play a much stronger opponent on the road the following week.  Third, every facet of play favored Georgia—GA rush vs. VU rush defense; GA pass vs. VU pass defense; GA rush defense vs. VU rush; GA pass defense vs. VU pass; and special teams. 

 

3. Eastern Michigan +14 ½ vs. Ball State

WON 

It may not have been the politically correct thing to state Thursday to those who purchased our picks, but we said, “this was a play against Coach Stan Parrish.  Poor Stan came into this game with a career coaching record of 6-45-1.  Even against a team with an 18-game losing streak, we could not see Ball State winning by more than two touchdowns.  We knew that Eastern Michigan would enter this game with confidence and play like it was their one chance to win a game this season.  We did not call for the outright upset, but we thought that Ball State would win by less than a touchdown.   

4. SMU +2 vs. Navy

Lost 

This one looked good for most of the day.  We believed that Navy would not be able to stop the Mustangs’ passing game.  We thought it would be a 35-31 SMU win, and Navy’s defense proved to be up to the challenge.  We missed this one. 

5. St. Louis Rams +7 ½ vs. San Diego Chargers

WON

 

The Chargers lost on the road at Kansas City, Oakland, and Seattle, three teams that have about the same amount of talent as St. Louis.  The Rams already owned home wins over the Redskins and Seahawks.  We loved that we got more than a touchdown in this one, and it was the first game we isolated when the spread hit seven and a hook. 

6. Cleveland Browns +13 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Lost 

This was our other loss of the week, and like the first one, we came tantalizingly close to winning this one.  Cleveland scored late to cut the Pittsburgh lead to 11 and then kicked off onsides.  It failed.  The Steelers were content to run out the clock, but the Browns called time out twice.  On 3rd and long, Ben Roethlisberger through the fade into the end zone for a touchdown.  Still we had a chance, as the Browns quickly moved back into Steeler territory, but terrible game management ended the drive. 

7. Seattle Seahawks +6 vs. Chicago Bears

WON 

This was the last of the seven selections we chose last week, and to tell you the truth, had we been playing teasers, we would have left this one alone.  It was purely a system play, as the stats we compile showed it to be a toss-up game.  Seattle had an extra week to prepare, and Jay Cutler was coming off a concussion.   

Almost Like Playoffs

 

This has the makings of a great week in college football with several games serving as imitation playoffs.  At least two undefeated teams are assured of losing their first game as LSU faces Auburn and Oklahoma faces Missouri.  The other unbeatens include Michigan State playing at Northwestern.  The Wildcats had an off-week, so they benefit from having an extra week to prepare for this game. 

Oklahoma State hosts Nebraska, and this looks like a close game.  If the Cowboys win this one, they could find themselves in first place in the Big 12 South.  TCU hosts Air Force, and the Horned Frogs should win by more than two touchdowns.  However, the Falcons have enough talent to challenge if TCU comes out flat.  Oregon hosts UCLA Thursday night, and we cannot see the Ducks losing at home to the Bruins.  Boise State has to wait until next Tuesday to play again, so we consider that game the following week. 

The Wild and Wacky SEC East

Look at the SEC East standings this week.  South Carolina and Florida both lost.  The Gamecocks lead the division at 2-2.  After starting league play at 0-3, Georgia is back in the race at 2-3.  Florida is also 2-3.  If the Bulldogs beat the Gators at the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, and Florida upends South Carolina, Georgia will be back in the driver’s seat. 

We believe there is a good chance that Georgia loses only to Auburn and finishes 4-4.  We can see South Carolina losing to Arkansas and Florida to finish 4-4.  We can see Florida losing to Georgia and beating South Carolina to finish 4-4.  Georgia would win this tiebreaker. 

Now for something even crazier.  What if Kentucky upsets Georgia this week after they upset South Carolina.  The Wildcats also started SEC play at 0-3.  A win over Georgia coupled by wins over Vanderbilt and Tennessee would give them four conference wins.  Assuming they could not win at Mississippi State, Kentucky would win a three-way tiebreaker at 4-4 with South Carolina and Florida, or South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida (Georgia would have to beat Auburn in this scenario to get to 4-4). 

One more crazy thought.  With Alabama all of a sudden getting much easier to defend, and with Tennessee having a week to prepare, what if the Vols upset the Tide at Neyland Stadium this week?  It is not all that likely, but this is a tough rivalry game.  That would make Tennessee 1-3 with games left against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt.  It wouldn’t be impossible to see Tennessee getting to 4-4 in this scenario. 

Only Vanderbilt appears to be totally out of the SEC East race, and yet, the Commodores are the only other team besides South Carolina with two conference losses.  The craziest thing of all:  If Vanderbilt could pull off a monumental upset over South Carolina (it is the Commodores’ Homecoming), they would move to 2-2 and be in first place in the division.  With a win over the Gamecocks, you would have to call the Tennessee and Kentucky games as winnable.  That would make Vandy 4-4.  They are more likely to finish 1-7, but just saying… 

This Week’s PiRate Top 25

 

NCAA Top 25 October 18, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Oregon 130.5 6 0
2 Boise State 129.8 6 0
3 Oklahoma 128.2 6 0
4 Alabama 127.9 6 1
5 T C U 127.4 7 0
6 Florida State 123.0 6 1
7 Auburn 122.7 7 0
8 Arkansas 122.5 4 2
9 Stanford 122.0 5 1
10 Iowa 121.4 5 1
11 South Carolina 121.0 4 2
12 Ohio State 120.8 6 1
13 Virginia Tech 120.5 5 2
14 Nebraska 120.5 5 1
15 North Carolina 119.1 4 2
16 Wisconsin 118.2 6 1
17 Texas 118.1 4 2
18 Missouri 117.8 6 0
19 Miami (Fla) 117.5 4 2
20 Utah 116.4 6 0
21 Southern Cal 116.1 5 2
22 Mississippi State 115.9 5 2
23 Arizona 115.9 5 1
24 Georgia 115.1 3 4
25 Michigan State 114.9 7 0
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

 

PiRate Ratings of All 120 FBS Teams (by conference)

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 4-0 6-1 123.0
Clemson 1-2 3-3 113.2
North Carolina State 2-1 5-2 105.2
Boston College 0-3 2-4 104.2
Wake Forest 1-3 2-5 98.8
Maryland 1-1 4-2 95.4
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 3-0 5-2 120.5
North Carolina 2-1 4-2 119.1
Miami-FL 2-1 4-2 117.5
Georgia Tech 3-1 5-2 113.8
Virginia 0-3 2-4 93.5
Duke 0-3 1-5 91.5

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 1-0 5-1 114.1
Pittsburgh 1-0 3-3 110.8
Cincinnati 1-0 3-3 110.2
Connecticut 0-1 3-3 107.5
South Florida 0-2 3-3 102.5
Louisville 0-1 3-3 98.4
Syracuse 1-1 4-2 98.4
Rutgers 1-0 4-2 93.3

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Iowa 2-0 5-1 121.4
Ohio State 2-1 6-1 120.8
Wisconsin 2-1 6-1 118.2
Michigan State 3-0 7-0 114.9
Michigan 1-2 5-2 107.6
Penn State 0-2 3-3 103.5
Illinois 1-2 3-3 103.3
Purdue 2-0 4-2 96.2
Northwestern 1-1 5-1 96.1
Minnesota 0-3 1-6 93.8
Indiana 0-2 4-2 91.1

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 1-1 5-1 120.5
Missouri 2-0 6-0 117.8
Colorado 0-2 3-3 102.0
Kansas State 2-1 5-1 97.9
Iowa State 1-2 3-4 91.2
Kansas 0-2 2-4 90.0
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 2-0 6-0 128.2
Texas 2-1 4-2 118.1
Texas A&M 0-2 3-3 111.2
Oklahoma State 2-0 6-0 109.1
Baylor 2-1 5-2 107.0
Texas Tech 1-3 3-3 104.2

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 2-0 4-2 100.4
Southern Mississippi 2-1 5-2 95.4
East Carolina 3-0 4-2 95.2
U A B 1-2 2-4 87.2
Marshall 0-2 1-5 83.5
Memphis 0-4 1-6 71.6
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 2-1 3-3 96.9
S M U 3-0 4-3 96.8
Tulsa 2-2 4-3 93.7
U T E P 2-2 5-2 85.6
Rice 1-2 2-5 84.8
Tulane 0-2 2-4 75.5

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   4-3 110.4
Navy   4-2 100.4
Army   4-3 90.0

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 2-1 5-2 90.2
Miami (O) 3-0 4-3 88.6
Ohio U 3-1 4-3 88.6
Kent St. 1-2 2-4 83.7
Buffalo 1-1 2-4 81.2
Bowling Green 0-3 1-6 78.4
Akron 0-3 0-7 68.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 3-0 5-2 97.6
Toledo 3-0 4-3 86.4
Central Michigan 1-3 2-5 85.7
Western Michigan 1-1 2-4 79.5
Ball State 1-2 2-5 76.0
Eastern Michigan 1-3 1-6 69.4

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 3-0 7-0 127.4
Utah 3-0 6-0 116.4
Air Force 3-1 5-2 105.6
S. D. State 1-1 4-2 100.7
B Y U 1-2 2-5 97.5
Wyoming 0-3 2-5 91.4
Colo. State 1-2 2-5 88.3
UNLV 1-2 1-6 85.4
New Mexico 0-2 0-6 73.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 3-0 6-0 130.5
Stanford 2-1 5-1 122.0
Southern Cal 2-2 5-2 116.1
Arizona 2-1 5-1 115.9
Oregon St. 2-1 3-3 113.4
California 1-2 3-3 113.0
Washington 2-1 3-3 109.9
U C L A 1-2 3-3 107.2
Arizona St. 1-2 3-3 107.0
Washington State 0-4 1-6 91.3

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 2-2 4-2 121.0
Georgia 2-3 3-4 115.1
Florida 2-3 4-3 114.7
Kentucky 1-3 4-3 107.9
Tennessee 0-3 2-4 98.9
Vanderbilt 1-2 2-4 93.6
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 3-1 6-1 127.9
Auburn 4-0 7-0 122.7
Arkansas 1-2 4-2 122.5
Mississippi State 2-2 5-2 115.9
L S U 4-0 7-0 114.7
Ole Miss 1-2 3-3 104.0

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 3-0 4-2 91.2
Florida International 2-0 2-4 85.6
Middle Tennessee 1-1 2-4 84.1
Arkansas State 2-2 2-5 81.1
U. of Louisiana 2-2 2-4 80.6
Florida Atlantic 0-2 1-4 78.5
Louisiana-Monroe 2-1 3-3 76.0
North Texas 1-3 1-6 75.8
Western Kentucky 0-2 0-6 73.1

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 2-0 6-0 129.8
Nevada 1-1 6-1 107.2
Hawaii 3-0 5-2 97.7
Fresno State 2-1 4-2 96.9
Louisiana Tech 2-1 3-4 94.5
Utah State 0-2 2-4 94.5
Idaho 0-1 3-3 92.0
San Jose State 0-2 1-6 79.1
New Mexico State 0-2 1-5 72.1

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Thursday, October 21      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
OREGON U  c  l  a 26.8 37-10
       
Friday, October 22      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
CINCINNATI South Florida 10.7 31-20
       
Saturday, October 23      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
AUBURN L  s  u 11.5 36-24
ARKANSAS Ole Miss 21.5 42-20
ARIZONA Washington 9.5 31-21
STANFORD Washington State 33.7 44-10
CALIFORNIA Arizona State 9.0 30-21
COLORADO Texas Tech 0.8 33-32
Michigan State NORTHWESTERN 15.8 35-19
Georgia KENTUCKY 4.2 35-31
Connecticut LOUISVILLE 6.1 30-24
BOSTON COLLEGE Maryland 12.3 28-16
Penn State MINNESOTA 6.7 20-13
Oklahoma MISSOURI 6.9 31-24
OHIO STATE Purdue 28.1 38-10
Nebraska OKLAHOMA STATE 7.9 28-20
PITTSBURGH Rutgers 20.5 42-21
CLEMSON Georgia Tech 2.4 30-28
South Carolina VANDERBILT 24.9 28-3
BAYLOR Kansas State 12.1 38-26
TEXAS Iowa State 32.1 42-10
VIRGINIA Eastern Michigan 27.6 42-14
VIRGINIA TECH Duke 32.5 49-16
WEST VIRGINIA Syracuse 18.7 32-13
MISSISSIPPI STATE U  a  b 31.7 42-10
ILLINOIS Indiana 15.2 35-20
ARKANSAS STATE Florida Atlantic 5.6 30-24
Temple BUFFALO 6.5 24-17
CENTRAL FLORIDA Rice 19.1 31-12
IOWA Wisconsin 6.7 27-20
Texas A&M KANSAS 18.2 31-13
MIAMI (FL) North Carolina 1.4 25-24
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Louisiana-Monroe 10.6 35-24
Notre Dame Navy  (E. Rutherford, NJ) 10.0 34-24
Alabama TENNESSEE 25.5 33-7
MIAMI (O) Ohio U 2.5 30-27
B  Y  U Wyoming 9.6 31-21
Kent State BOWLING GREEN 2.8 31-28
Western Michigan AKRON 8.1 31-23
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Central Michigan 14.9 35-20
S  M  U Houston 2.9 34-31
EAST CAROLINA Marshall 14.7 38-23
IDAHO New Mexico State 22.9 45-22
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE Western Kentucky 10.5 31-20
Hawaii UTAH STATE 0.2 34-34 to ot
UTAH Colorado State 31.6 42-10
TOLEDO Ball State 13.4 30-17
Fresno State SAN JOSE STATE 15.3 27-12
T  C  U Air Force 25.3 34-9
U  T  E  P Tulane 13.1 37-24
San Diego State NEW MEXICO 24.8 35-10

 

This Week’s Mean and Biased Spreads

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings
       
Thursday, October 21      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
OREGON U  c  l  a 40-17 41-17
       
Friday, October 22      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
CINCINNATI South Florida 30-18 28-24
       
Saturday, October 23      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
AUBURN L  s  u 30-26 33-20
ARKANSAS Ole Miss 42-30 45-27
ARIZONA Washington 28-17 24-20
STANFORD Washington State 45-12 38-10
CALIFORNIA Arizona State 27-23 27-23
Texas Tech COLORADO 31-31 to ot 34-27
Michigan State NORTHWESTERN 31-20 37-17
Georgia KENTUCKY 34-34 to ot 40-24
LOUISVILLE Connecticut 28-27 30-19
BOSTON COLLEGE Maryland 27-24 26-23
Penn State MINNESOTA 21-13 24-10
Oklahoma MISSOURI 29-28 30-17
OHIO STATE Purdue 37-17 34-17
Nebraska OKLAHOMA STATE 24-24 to ot 23-17
PITTSBURGH Rutgers 28-17 27-17
CLEMSON Georgia Tech 35-31 35-30
South Carolina VANDERBILT 28-14 27-7
BAYLOR Kansas State 30-28 34-26
TEXAS Iowa State 26-10 31-3
VIRGINIA Eastern Michigan 31-12 38-10
VIRGINIA TECH Duke 41-12 41-10
WEST VIRGINIA Syracuse 28-13 26-12
MISSISSIPPI STATE U  a  b 34-10 35-17
ILLINOIS Indiana 33-20 27-17
ARKANSAS STATE Florida Atlantic 34-26 31-20
Temple BUFFALO 24-16 26-14
CENTRAL FLORIDA Rice 34-14 35-16
IOWA Wisconsin 25-17 27-17
Texas A&M KANSAS 33-20 44-13
MIAMI (FL) North Carolina 24-21 24-20
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Louisiana-Monroe 34-30 35-20
Notre Dame Navy  (E. Rutherford, NJ) 30-28 31-21
Alabama TENNESSEE 24-6 24-9
MIAMI (O) Ohio U 27-28 32-19
B  Y  U Wyoming 27-20 34-17
BOWLING GREEN Kent State 28-25 28-26
Western Michigan AKRON 34-21 31-21
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Central Michigan 33-20 33-14
S  M  U Houston 40-32 41-24
EAST CAROLINA Marshall 38-21 45-19
IDAHO New Mexico State 42-17 38-16
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE Western Kentucky 31-23 31-13
Hawaii UTAH STATE 38-28 42-31
UTAH Colorado State 38-9 27-10
TOLEDO Ball State 35-21 41-10
Fresno State SAN JOSE STATE 31-20 38-14
T  C  U Air Force 27-10 27-10
U  T  E  P Tulane 40-31 41-27
San Diego State NEW MEXICO 42-16 42-13

 

This Week’s Look At the Bowls

We continue to believe that only TCU and Boise State could emerge as unbeaten teams.  We can see Oregon stubbing their toe in the competitive Pac-10.  We believe Michigan State will lose once in Big Ten play.  We think Oklahoma has three chances to lose a game, and Oklahoma State and Missouri will not run the table.  We believe the Auburn-LSU winner will lose to Alabama.  TCU should dismiss Utah, so that would leave just the Horned Frogs and Broncos undefeated.  If it happens, they should finish 1-2 in the BCS standings.  If you are a fan of college football playoffs, you need to pull for this scenario to happen.  Can you predict the reaction if 11-1 Alabama and 11-1 Oregon lost out on a chance to play for the National Championship?  You can substitute 11-1 Ohio State’s, Iowa’s, Nebraska’s, Auburn’s, LSU’s, and any other 11-1 team from a major conference. 

The at-large hopefuls out there may luck out on the Pac-10 not coming up with enough teams to fulfill their obligations.  If Oregon and Stanford both end up in BCS Bowls, and with Southern Cal ineligible, the league could find itself being unable to provide bowl-eligible teams to at least one bowl and maybe as many as three.  Our ratings indicated that from among Arizona State, California, Oregon State, UCLA, and Washington, one team could finish 6-6, while the others all finish 5-7.

 

(Parentheses mean at-large selection) 

Bowl Conference Team Conference Team
New Mexico MWC #4 or 5 (Ohio U 7-5) WAC (#3-4) La. Tech 6-6
Humanitarian MAC #3 Temple 9-3 WAC #1 or 2 Nevada 10-2
New Orleans Sunbelt #1 or 2 Troy 9-3 C-USA #5 U T E P 8-5
St. Petersburg Big East #6 Syracuse 6-6 C-USA #4 Southern Miss 8-4
Las Vegas MWC #1 Utah 11-1 Pac 10 #5 (Cincinnati 7-5)
Poinsettia MWC #2 San Diego St. 8-4 Navy or WAC Navy 7-5
Hawaii Hawaii/WAC #3 Hawaii 10-3 C-USA #2 East Carolina 9-3
Little Caesar’s Pizza Big 10 #8 Northwestern 6-6 MAC #1 Northern Ill. 10-3
Independence ACC #7 Miami 7-5 MWC #3 Air Force 8-4
Champs Sports Big East #2 Notre Dame 7-5 ACC #3 North Carolina 8-4
Insight Big 12 #4 Missouri 10-2 Big 10 #4 or 5 Wisconsin 9-3
Eagle Bank ACC #8 Maryland 6-6 C-USA #6 S M U 7-6
Texas Big 12 #6 Baylor 7-5 Big 10 #6 Illinois 8-4
Alamo Big 12 #3 Nebraska 11-2 Pac 10 #2 Arizona 9-3
Armed Forces C-USA #3 Tulsa 8-4 MWC #4 or 5 B Y U 6-6
Pinstripe Big East #4 Rutgers 6-6 Big 12 #7 Texas Tech 6-6
Music City SEC # 7 Miss. State 8-4 ACC #6 Georgia Tech 7-5
Holiday Big 12 #5 Oklahoma St. 10-2 Pac 10 #3 California 6-6
Meineke Car Care ACC #5 Clemson 7-5 Big East #3 Pittsburgh 7-5
Sun ACC #4 N. Carolina St. 8-4 Pac 10 #4 (Boston Coll. 7-5)
Liberty SEC #8 or 9 Kentucky 7-5 C-USA #1 Central Fla. 11-2
Chick-fil-A SEC #5 Florida 7-5 ACC #2 Florida State 10-3
Dallas Football Classic Big 10 #7 Penn State 6-6 Big 12 #8 Kansas St. 6-6
Outback SEC #3 or 4 Georgia 7-6 Big 10 #3 Ohio State 10-2
Capital One Big 10 #2 Michigan St. 11-1 SEC #2 L S U 10-2
Gator Big 10 #4 or 5 Michigan 9-3 SEC #6 South Carolina 7-5
Rose BCS Pac10 Oregon 11-1 BCS Big 10 Iowa 11-1
Fiesta BCS Big 12 Oklahoma 12-1 BCS At-Large West Virginia 10-2
Orange BCS ACC Virginia Tech 11-2 BCS At-Large Stanford 11-1
Sugar BCS SEC Auburn 12-1 BCS At-Large Alabama 10-2
G M A C Sunbelt #1 or 2 Florida Int’l 6-6 MAC #2 Miami (O) 9-4
Cotton Big 12 #2 Texas 10-2 SEC #3 or 4 Arkansas 10-2
Papajohns.com Big East #5 South Florida 7-5 SEC #8 or 9 (Army 7-5)
Kraft Fight Hunger Pac 10 #6 (Toledo 8-4) WAC Fresno St. 6-6
National Championship *** BCS #1 *** Boise State 12-0 *** BCS #2 *** TCU 12-0

 

October 11, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 13-16, 2010

Another Great Weekend Against The Spread

 

It was nip and tuck with a couple of games, but when the dust cleared, we went 4-1 against the spread in our selections this past weekend.  That brings our record for the season to 32-14-2 for 69.6%.  As a result, we are advising our clients who have played every week to take some off the table and guarantee yourself a winning season.  We would like to believe we could continue at this pace, but being logical, 70% is uncanny for this late in the season.  Yes, we believe we have found some nice trends in the NFL and have exploited those trends, but they could change in a week.  Here is how our selections panned out.

 

1. College 10-point Sweetheart Teaser

Syracuse +17 ½ vs. South Florida, Michigan State +14 ½ vs. Michigan, and Utah +4 vs. Iowa State.

WON

Our goal with this one was to make two hot teams double digit underdogs in games where we thought they should be favored.  Syracuse and Michigan State did not disappoint, and they both pulled off upsets.  As for Utah, we liked getting points.  The Utes have quietly moved into the Top 10, and if not for TCU, they would be talked about in the BCS at-large bowl picture.

2. College 13-point Sweetheart Teaser

Missouri +1 ½ vs. Colorado, Ohio U +4 vs. Bowling Green, LSU +19 ½ vs. Florida, and California +5 ½ vs. UCLA

WON

We felt Missouri would win versus the Buffs, but we did not like the spread.  By moving them to an underdog, we were secure in our beliefs.  The same went for Ohio U and Cal.  BGU could not beat the Bobcats if they played 50 times this year.  We felt the Bears would win or lose by a field goal or less.

We are not about to say we thought LSU would win at Gainesville, but we had faith in defensive coordinator John Chavis to keep this game close. 

3. NFL 10-point Sweetheart Teaser

Baltimore +3 vs. Denver, Indianapolis +3 vs. Kansas City, and Cincinnati +3 ½ vs. Tampa Bay

WON

 We won this one by a mere half-point, but we will take it.  We’ve lost our share by that amount in the past.

 We took three teams that we thought would win close games and made them underdogs.  We hit it right on with the Ravens and Colts, and we got lucky that the Bengals only lost by three.

 4. 13-point Sweetheart Teaser

Green Bay & Washington Under 57, New York Giants & Houston Under 60 ½, San Diego & Oakland Under 57 ½, and Tennessee & Dallas Under 55

Loss

We thought that we had a good one here with teams that either lacked enough offense to hurt us or had good enough defenses to make this one work.  It worked with the first two games, but Oakland caught fire late and lost this one for us, and then Tennessee and Dallas scored three times late to pile on.

5. 13-point Sweetheart Teaser

Carolina & Chicago Over 20, St. Louis & Detroit Over 30, Atlanta & Cleveland Over 27 ½, and Tampa Bay & Cincinnati Over 25

WON

 This was the opposite approach to selection number 4.  We felt we had four games where either weak defense and/or better than advertised offense combined with a huge movement in a small totals line gave us a great advantage.  We actually thought that the only game we had to worry about here was the Rams-Lions game, and Detroit covered it all by themselves.

Time To Look At The Bowls

The college season is about half over, so it is time to start looking at the bowl possibilities.  Unlike the other places that just pick teams for each bowl, we like to look at it conference by conference and then place the teams in the bowl based on that data.  Here goes.

A C C

After starting 0-2 with a loss to James Madison, it looked like Virginia Tech was headed for a major disappointing season.  Can you remember 1995?  The Hokies lost their first two games to less than mediocre opponents and then ran the table, including a Sugar Bowl win over Texas.  Va. Tech could easily run the table once again and head to the Orange Bowl.

Florida State is their principal rival.  The Seminoles dismantled Miami Saturday night, but they have to prove they can play that way week after week.  We feel that FSU has the talent to win the Coastal Division.

North Carolina State, Georgia Tech, and Miami are good enough to pull off an upset and beat the weaker teams, but we do not feel like any of this trio can win a division flag.

North Carolina, Clemson, Boston College, and Maryland will all vie for six wins and bowl eligibility.  We feel like all four will get there, with the Tar Heels getting to seven wins.

1. BCS (Orange)—Virginia Tech

2. Chick-fil-A—Florida State

3. Champs Sports—North Carolina State

4. Sun—Miami

5. Meineke Car Care—North Carolina

6. Music City—Georgia Tech

7. Independence—Clemson

8. Eagle Bank—Maryland

Big East

This league has no dominant team, so don’t expect a 7-0 or 0-7 conference record this season.  West Virginia has the most talent, but the Mountaineers play inconsistently.  Still, we believe they have enough horses to go 6-1 and grab the league’s automatic BCS bowl berth.

We believe three teams will come up one win short—Connecticut, Pittsburgh, and Louisville.  We thought Rutgers might fall below .500 this season, but their win over UConn probably ensured them a sixth win.

South Florida and Cincinnati are not world beaters this season, but both should find a way to reach bowl eligibility.

As for the Syracuse Orangemen, their win at USF Saturday probably put them over the top.  We believe SU will contend for the league crown now, and they should win another four games.

Notre Dame is included here, because the Irish are included in the Big East Bowl Alignment.  They will get to seven wins and take one of the bids.

1. BCS (Fiesta)—West Virginia

2. Champs Sports—Syracuse

3. Meineke Car Care—Notre Dame

4. Pinstripe—Rutgers

5. PapaJohns—Cincinnati

6. St. Petersburg—South Florida

Big Ten

Ohio State occupies the top spot in the polls this week, but we feel like they will stumble at least one time before the end of the season.  Iowa appears to be the one team that can shut down the Buckeyes’ offense, and we believe the Hawkeyes can capture the conference flag.

Michigan State has to be considered in this race, but the Spartans, like Ohio State, must travel to Iowa City.

Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan should fight it out for the next three spots, while Penn State and Northwestern vie for the bottom two.  It looks to us like Purdue and Indiana will come up one win short, while Minnesota will run the table the wrong way in the conference.

Because we feel like there will be two undefeated teams from outside the automatic qualifying conferences, and we believe there will be too many one-loss teams available, we are going to call for the Big Ten to miss out on a second BCS bowl bid.

1. BCS (Rose)—Iowa

2. Capital One—Ohio State

3. Outback—Michigan State

4. Gator—Michigan

5. Insight—Wisconsin

6. Texas—Illinois

7. Dallas Football Classic—Penn State

8. Little Caesar’s Pizza—Northwestern

Big 12

Nebraska has the horses to run the table.  The Cornhuskers should take care of business with Texas this week, and their only tough opponent remaining would be Missouri.  We will call for the ‘Huskers to go 12-0 in the regular season, but we believe they will fall in the Conference Championship Game.

Oklahoma is the team we believe that will win the league’s automatic bid, but we also believe the Sooners will be upset one time in conference play.  OU has road games with Missouri, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State, and it is our opinion that they will lose one of these.

Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Texas are the best of the rest in the league.  After that, it looks like there could be five teams finishing at 6-6 (Colorado, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech).

1. BCS (Fiesta)—Oklahoma

2. BCS (Sugar)—Nebraska

3. Cotton—Missouri

4. Alamo—Texas

5. Insight—Oklahoma State

6. Holiday—Colorado

7. Texas—Texas A&M

8. Pinstripe—Baylor

9. Dallas Football Classic—Kansas State

Pac-10

Oregon is the top team in the nation today, correct?  We say, “not so fast my friends.”  If the NCAA staged a post-season tournament in the FBS division, then Oregon might be the favorite to emerge victorious.  However, this is a one-loss and you might be out of it brand of football.  In the topsy-turvy Pac-10, there are too many good offenses to give any team a great shot at going 9-0.  Thus, we pick the Ducks to stub their webbed feet at least one time.  They will end up in Pasadena.

Stanford, Cal, Arizona, and Oregon State will gain bowl eligibility, while Washington, UCLA, and Arizona State might all end up one win short.  With Southern Cal ineligible, it looks like there will be an opening for an at-large team to take a bowl bid.

1. BCS (Rose)—Oregon

2. Alamo—Stanford

3. Holiday—Arizona

4. Sun—California

5. Las Vegas—Oregon State

6. Kraft Fight Hunger—At-large team needed

SEC

 

Alabama might still be the best team in the land, but there is a chance they will never move up enough spots to play for the title.  We believe the Tide will win out and eliminate their arch-rival from the big game.   

Auburn could enter the season finale at 11-0 and be looking at a possible National Championship Game bid, but we believe they will fall to ‘Bama.

 

L S U is the luckiest undefeated team in the land, but their luck will run out a couple times.  Arkansas will win at least nine games, while the two Mississippi schools could end up 6-6 to make the enter Western Division bowl eligible.

 

The East will be lucky to send four teams to bowls, and it is a remote possibility that only two will get to six wins.  South Carolina and Florida will decide the division champion in their game in Gainesville in November.  We’ll give the edge to the Gators, and then the Gators will lose a second time to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. 

1. BCS (Sugar)—Alabama

2. BCS (Orange)—Auburn

3. Capital One—South Carolina

4. Outback—L S U

5. Cotton—Arkansas

6. Chick-fil-A—Florida

7. Gator—Georgia

8. Music City—Mississippi State

9. Liberty—Ole Miss

10. PapaJohns—Kentucky 

Mountain West 

Don’t engrave the letters T, C, and U on the conference championship trophy just yet.  Utah is also undefeated and in the top 10.  The Utes host the Frogs, and Utah has already enjoyed two undefeated seasons in the last six seasons.  The big game takes place in Salt Lake City on November 6. 

We will call the Horned Frogs the winner because we picked them to go 12-0 before the season started.

 

Utah could easily finish 11-1 and should finish at least 10-2.  Air Force has the rockets to win nine times.  San Diego State should become bowl eligible and play in a bowl for the first time in a dozen years.  BYU has a much easier schedule down the stretch, and we believe the Cougars will get their sixth win. 

Disclaimer: Because we believe TCU will get a rematch with Boise State in a BCS Bowl and because we believe the Pac-10 will not satisfy all its bowl arrangements, and because Utah will soon be a member there, we believe that an 11-1 Ute team could end up being dealt to a Pac-10 spot.   

1. BCS At-Large (NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME)—T C U

2. Las Vegas—Air Force

3. Poinsettia—Utah (See Above Disclaimer)

4. Independence—B Y U

5. Armed Forces—At-large spot to ARMY

6. New Mexico— San Diego State 

WAC 

Boise State has two tough games remaining.  By tough, we are talking about games where they may not win by three touchdowns or more.  The Broncos should run the table and finish the regular season ranked at the top in the human polls (unless some shady voters purposely vote them lower to give a BCS conference team a better chance to crack the National Championship Game). 

Nevada could be 11-0 when Boise State visits Reno on Friday night, November 26.  The Wolf Pack have a chance to play big spoiler, and if they should happen to pull off the unlikely upset and then take care of business a week later at Louisiana Tech, then who could say they don’t deserve to play in a BCS Bowl. 

Hawaii will win enough games to earn their home bowl’s bid.  Fresno State, Idaho, and Louisiana Tech should all figure in the picture.

 

1. BCS (NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME)—Boise State

2. Humanitarian—Nevada

3. New Mexico—Louisiana Tech

4. Hawaii—Hawaii

5. Kraft Fight Hunger—Fresno State 

Conference USA 

Houston lost not one but two quarterbacks against UCLA, and with that lost any chance to have a Boise State or TCU type of season.  We doubt any league team will go 8-0 in conference play, and 6-2 could be enough to win a spot in the conference championship game.

 

Central Florida, Southern Mississippi, and East Carolina all have a shot in the East, while SMU and UTEP appear to be the top contenders in the West.  Houston still has a shot even with their number three quarterback, while Tulsa still has a mathematical chance.  All seven teams should gain bowl eligibility. 

1. Liberty—Central Florida

2. Hawaii—S M U

3. Armed Forces—Tulsa

4. St. Petersburg—Southern Mississippi

5. New Orleans—Houston

6. Eagle Bank—East Carolina 

M A C 

Northern Illinois showed the rest of the league that they have returned to the top of the heap after a few years away when they clobbered Temple this past weekend.  Look for the Owls and Huskies to meet again in December, where we believe NIU will prevail yet again. 

Toledo should recover from the blowout loss at Boise State and start building up momentum.  They face Northern Illinois in Dekalb, and Huskie Stadium is the top home field advantage in the MAC.  We’ll give the edge to NIU, but we believe Toledo will gain bowl eligibility and possibly win eight games.

 

Ohio and Miami of Ohio should get to that magical seven win number, and if so, we expect both to get bowl invitations. 

1. Little Caesar’s Pizza—Northern Illinois

2. G M A C—Temple

3. Humanitarian—Miami of Ohio

4. At-Large Bowl—Ohio U 

Service Academies 

Navy is not as talented this year as in recent seasons, but the Midshipmen should find a way to win six games.  One of those may not be Army, because the Black Knights may be the better team this season.  However, Navy has a guaranteed bid if they win six times, while Army does not.  They have a provisional agreement with the Armed Forces Bowl if they have six wins prior to the Navy game, and either the MWC or CUSA is unable to supply enough bowl eligible teams for their allotted bids. 

 

1. Poinsettia Bowl—Navy

2. Armed Force Bowl—Army

 

Sunbelt 

There really is only one good team in the SBC this season.  Troy should run the table and advance to the New Orleans Bowl.  As for the runner-up spot, it could come from Middle Tennessee, Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, or even Louisiana Monroe.  Don’t expect a third team to emerge with bowl eligibility. 

1. New Orleans—Troy

2. G M A C—Middle Tennessee 

The PiRate Ratings 

We get e-mails from many of you, especially those who purchase our selections (www.piratings.webs.com) asking how we could rank a two-loss team ahead of an undefeated team, maybe even one that beat the two-loss team. 

Remember this:  The PiRate Ratings are not rankings and not a poll.  They are predictive in nature and always look forward and not backward.  LSU beat Florida in Gainesville, but the Gators stay 1.1 points ahead of the Tigers.  That is because we believe that if the two played again this weekend in Gainesville, Florida would win by 1.1 points plus the home field advantage we assigned for that game (plus or minus certain intangibles that we use that could actually move the predicted spread by as much as two touchdowns in either direction). 

NCAA Top 25 October 4, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Oregon 130.5 6 0
2 Alabama 129.5 5 1
3 Boise State 128.7 5 0
4 T C U 127.3 6 0
5 Florida State 125.7 5 1
6 South Carolina 125.5 4 1
7 Arkansas 125.3 4 1
8 Oklahoma 124.4 5 0
9 Ohio State 124.3 6 0
10 Nebraska 123.0 5 0
11 Stanford 122.0 5 1
12 Iowa 121.6 4 1
13 Auburn 119.0 6 0
14 Virginia Tech 118.9 4 2
15 Miami (Fla) 118.5 3 2
16 California 117.5 3 2
17 Florida 117.3 4 2
18 Arizona 116.7 4 1
19 North Carolina 116.6 3 2
20 L S U 116.2 6 0
21 Texas 116.0 3 2
22 Utah 115.8 5 0
23 Texas A&M 115.0 3 2
24 Wisconsin 114.6 5 1
25 Georgia Tech 114.6 4 2
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 3-0 5-1 125.7
Clemson 0-2 2-3 113.2
North Carolina State 2-1 5-1 106.7
Boston College 0-2 2-3 102.0
Wake Forest 1-2 2-4 100.3
Maryland 1-0 4-1 95.4
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Virginia Tech 2-0 4-2 118.9
Miami-FL 1-1 3-2 118.5
North Carolina 1-1 3-2 116.6
Georgia Tech 3-1 4-2 114.6
Virginia 0-2 2-3 95.9
Duke 0-2 1-4 91.0

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 0-0 4-1 113.9
Cincinnati 0-0 2-3 110.0
Connecticut 0-1 3-3 107.5
Pittsburgh 0-0 2-3 107.4
South Florida 0-1 3-2 102.6
Syracuse 1-0 4-1 101.2
Louisville 0-0 3-2 98.3
Rutgers 1-0 3-2 94.3

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 2-0 6-0 124.3
Iowa 1-0 4-1 121.6
Wisconsin 1-1 5-1 114.6
Michigan State 2-0 6-0 114.0
Michigan 1-1 5-1 107.4
Illinois 1-1 3-2 104.1
Penn State 0-2 3-3 103.5
Northwestern 1-1 5-1 96.1
Purdue 1-0 3-2 95.4
Minnesota 0-2 1-5 94.6
Indiana 0-2 3-2 92.6

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 1-0 5-0 123.0
Missouri 1-0 5-0 113.9
Colorado 0-1 3-2 102.6
Kansas State 1-1 4-1 95.6
Kansas 0-1 2-3 95.0
Iowa State 1-1 3-3 94.9
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 1-0 5-0 124.4
Texas 1-1 3-2 116.0
Texas A&M 0-1 3-2 115.0
Texas Tech 1-2 3-2 107.6
Baylor 1-1 4-2 106.3
Oklahoma State 1-0 5-0 105.6

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 1-0 3-2 99.0
Southern Mississippi 1-1 4-2 95.0
East Carolina 3-0 3-2 92.7
U A B 0-2 1-4 85.7
Marshall 0-1 1-4 84.8
Memphis 0-3 1-5 71.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 2-0 3-2 99.3
S M U 3-0 4-2 97.1
Tulsa 1-2 3-3 93.2
U T E P 2-1 5-1 87.4
Rice 0-2 1-5 82.6
Tulane 0-1 2-3 76.0

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   3-3 111.2
Navy   3-2 100.0
Army   4-2 88.5

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 1-1 4-2 92.7
Miami (O) 2-0 3-3 86.5
Ohio U 2-1 3-3 86.1
Kent St. 1-1 2-3 85.5
Buffalo 1-0 2-3 82.5
Bowling Green 0-2 1-5 76.2
Akron 0-2 0-6 71.3
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 2-0 4-2 95.9
Central Michigan 1-2 2-4 87.7
Toledo 2-0 3-3 84.6
Western Michigan 1-1 2-3 78.4
Ball State 1-1 2-4 77.8
Eastern Michigan 0-3 0-6 67.6

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 2-0 6-0 127.3
Utah 2-0 5-0 115.8
Air Force 3-0 5-1 106.7
S. D. State 0-1 3-2 99.2
B Y U 1-1 2-4 97.3
Wyoming 0-2 2-4 91.9
UNLV 1-1 1-5 89.4
Colo. State 0-2 1-5 84.2
New Mexico 0-2 0-6 73.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 3-0 6-0 130.5
Stanford 2-1 5-1 122.0
California 1-1 3-2 117.5
Arizona 1-1 4-1 116.7
Oregon St. 2-0 3-2 113.7
Southern Cal 1-2 4-2 112.0
Washington 1-1 2-3 109.6
U C L A 1-2 3-3 107.2
Arizona St. 1-2 3-3 107.0
Wash. St. 0-3 1-5 90.0

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 2-1 4-1 125.5
Florida 2-2 4-2 117.3
Georgia 1-3 2-4 110.5
Kentucky 0-3 3-3 103.3
Tennessee 0-3 2-4 98.9
Vanderbilt 1-1 2-3 98.1
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 2-1 5-1 129.5
Arkansas 1-1 4-1 125.3
Auburn 3-0 6-0 119.0
L S U 4-0 6-0 116.2
Mississippi State 1-2 4-2 113.7
Ole Miss 1-1 3-2 102.9

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 2-0 3-2 91.9
Middle Tennessee 1-1 2-3 83.3
Florida International 1-0 1-4 81.9
Arkansas State 2-2 2-4 80.1
U. of Louisiana 2-1 2-3 79.9
North Texas 1-2 1-5 79.5
Florida Atlantic 0-2 1-4 78.5
Louisiana-Monroe 1-1 2-3 75.4
Western Kentucky 0-1 0-5 73.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 1-0 5-0 128.7
Nevada 1-0 6-0 109.5
Fresno State 1-1 3-2 96.6
Utah State 0-2 2-4 94.5
Idaho 0-0 3-2 93.4
Hawaii 2-0 4-2 95.0
Louisiana Tech 1-1 2-4 93.0
San Jose State 0-1 1-5 79.6
New Mexico State 0-1 1-4 72.3

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
       
Wednesday, October 13      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Central Florida MARSHALL 11.2 31-20
       
Thursday, October 14      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
WEST VIRGINIA South Florida 14.8 35-20
KANSAS Kansas State 1.9 19-17
       
Friday, October 15      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Cincinnati LOUISVILLE 9.2 30-21
       
Saturday, October 16      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Arkansas AUBURN 3.3 34-31
Baylor COLORADO 0.7 31-30
FLORIDA STATE Boston College 27.7 41-13
FLORIDA Mississippi State 7.1 27-20
GEORGIA TECH Middle Tennessee 34.8 56-21
GEORGIA Vanderbilt 15.9 26-10
INDIANA Arkansas State 15.5 34-18
South Carolina KENTUCKY 19.2 40-21
WESTERN KENTUCKY Louisiana-Monroe 0.8 26-25
MICHIGAN STATE Illinois 12.9 33-20
Miami (Fl) DUKE 25.0 45-20
North Carolina St. EAST CAROLINA 11.5 42-30
NEBRASKA Texas 11.0 21-10
RUTGERS Army 8.8 27-18
Pittsburgh SYRACUSE 3.2 20-17
OKLAHOMA Iowa State 33.0 45-12
CLEMSON Maryland 20.8 35-14
Southern Miss MEMPHIS 20.6 35-14
TEXAS A&M Missouri 4.6 35-30
NORTH TEXAS Florida Int’l 0.1 27-27 to ot
North Carolina VIRGINIA 17.7 31-13
VIRGINIA TECH Wake Forest 21.6 35-13
Oregon State WASHINGTON 1.1 28-27
Arizona WASHINGTON STATE 23.7 34-10
ALABAMA Ole Miss 30.1 37-7
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Miami (O) 4.2 31-27
PURDUE Minnesota 3.8 28-24
TEXAS TECH Oklahoma State 5.0 38-33
TROY Louisiana-Lafayette 15.0 42-27
TEMPLE Bowling Green 19.5 38-18
BALL STATE Eastern Michigan 12.7 33-20
OHIO U Akron 17.3 27-10
U  n  l  v COLORADO STATE 2.2 28-26
NOTRE DAME Western Michigan 36.3 49-13
California SOUTHERN CAL 2.0 30-28
Iowa MICHIGAN 11.2 21-10
Houston RICE 14.7 38-23
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Buffalo 16.4 30-14
NAVY S  m  u 5.9 34-28
U  A  B U  t  e  p 1.3 31-30
LOUISIANA TECH Idaho 2.6 24-21
T  C  U B  y  u 33.0 45-12
Utah WYOMING 20.9 45-24
TULSA Tulane 20.2 34-14
Ohio State WISCONSIN 6.7 31-24
TOLEDO Kent State 1.6 30-28
Boise State SAN JOSE STATE 46.6 56-10
Air Force SAN DIEGO STATE 4.5 31-26
FRESNO STATE New Mexico State 27.3 40-13
Nevada HAWAII 10.5 38-27

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings
       
Wednesday, October 13      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Central Florida MARSHALL 30-21 35-14
       
Thursday, October 14      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
WEST VIRGINIA South Florida 28-16 27-20
Kansas State KANSAS 19-14 21-12
       
Friday, October 15      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Cincinnati LOUISVILLE 27-24 28-22
       
Saturday, October 16      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
AUBURN Arkansas 34-31 34-30
Baylor COLORADO 28-27 27-24
FLORIDA STATE Boston College 34-12 41-17
FLORIDA Mississippi State 27-17 27-20
GEORGIA TECH Middle Tennessee 38-19 49-16
GEORGIA Vanderbilt 27-17 35-13
INDIANA Arkansas State 35-24 38-17
South Carolina KENTUCKY 30-20 31-24
WESTERN KENTUCKY Louisiana-Monroe 25-24 23-27
MICHIGAN STATE Illinois 23-14 24-17
Miami (Fl) DUKE 34-17 38-14
North Carolina St. EAST CAROLINA 30-21 34-27
NEBRASKA Texas 27-14 27-10
RUTGERS Army 28-24 24-17
Pittsburgh SYRACUSE 24-22 17-20
OKLAHOMA Iowa State 31-12 31-10
CLEMSON Maryland 26-17 24-19
Southern Miss MEMPHIS 38-23 45-13
Missouri TEXAS A&M 29-28 32-27
Florida Int’l NORTH TEXAS 27-25 28-23
North Carolina VIRGINIA 23-17 24-10
VIRGINIA TECH Wake Forest 33-10 30-9
Oregon State WASHINGTON 28-24 31-20
Arizona WASHINGTON STATE 41-20 44-20
ALABAMA Ole Miss 35-12 34-10
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Miami (O) 33-24 30-27
PURDUE Minnesota 28-21 28-20
Oklahoma State TEXAS TECH 34-31 34-27
TROY Louisiana-Lafayette 41-24 41-24
TEMPLE Bowling Green 28-12 28-12
BALL STATE Eastern Michigan 28-14 21-14
OHIO U Akron 34-12 24-14
COLORADO STATE U  n  l  v 28-27 27-25
NOTRE DAME Western Michigan 38-21 41-13
SOUTHERN CAL California 34-34 to ot 34-35
Iowa MICHIGAN 23-17 20-16
Houston RICE 38-27 38-33
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Buffalo 33-21 32-20
NAVY S  m  u 31-27 31-35
U  A  B U  t  e  p 31-30 27-41
Idaho LOUISIANA TECH 24-21 17-24
T  C  U B  y  u 35-10 35-7
Utah WYOMING 42-24 45-17
TULSA Tulane 35-19 38-17
Ohio State WISCONSIN 24-16 24-17
TOLEDO Kent State 31-23 38-24
Boise State SAN JOSE STATE 45-13 63-14
Air Force SAN DIEGO STATE 31-27 34-24
FRESNO STATE New Mexico State 35-10 44-14
Nevada HAWAII 41-33 42-37

 

 

 

October 4, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: October 5-9, 2010

PiRate Rating Selections Go 4-3 against the spread.

 

It was our worst week of the season, but at least we turned a small profit to those who chose to purchase our picks last week.  This is the last week you can purchase the rest of the season in one package.  After this week, you may only buy our weekly picks.  There will be a bowl season/NFL Playoffs opportunity available in Mid-December.

 

For the season, our picks are now 28-13-2 for 68.3% against the spread.  As you will see, we lost our three college selections, but we aced the NFL picks.  This has continued to be our trend, as our NFL picks are red hot.  We are 12-4-0 with our NFL picks and 16-9-2 with our college selections.  We will continue to monitor this, and if our NFL picks continue to top 70%, we may rely close to 100% on selecting those games.  Go to www.piratings.webs.com to purchase our selections.

 

Not the Most Important Week, But…

 

This will be one of the most interesting weeks in the college football season with several trap games as well as key games in the conference races.  Let’s take a look conference-by-conference with some of the big games.

 

ACC

Neither team will figure in the national championship picture, but Miami and Florida State hook up in a game that should determine at least one of the division races.  Should the Seminoles win, they should cruise to the Atlantic Division title.  FSU would still be the favorite in the Atlantic with a loss.

 

Miami needs this game to win the Coastal Division title.  Virginia Tech may beat every other ACC opponent, and even if the Hurricanes pinned a loss on the Hokies, The “U” could lose at Georgia Tech and finish 6-2 in the league if they lose to the ‘Noles.

 

Big East

There is only one important game in league play, but for bowl purposes, there are actually two.

 

South Florida hosts improved Syracuse this week, and if the Orangemen could spring the upset, it could make the conference race look like 2007 when seven of the eight teams had a chance to win the championship.  USF has been hot and cold, so this game should be interesting.

 

Pittsburgh plays at Notre Dame.  If the Irish win, they will move up in the bowl hierarchy.  Notre Dame can steal a Big East bowl bid as part of the bowl alliances. 

 

Big Ten

This is going to be a fantastic race.  We have looked at the contending teams’ strengths and weaknesses, and we honestly cannot find one team that looks head and heels better than the others.  Thus, we could see 6-2 getting a piece of the league crown and 7-1 winning it outright.  No 7-1 Big Ten team will jump over an undefeated Boise State or TCU team.

 

The big game takes place at the Big House where undefeated rivals Michigan and Michigan State square off.  Expect yet another exciting game, as these games have been great matchups in recent seasons.  Two of the past five games have been decided in overtime, while one other was decided by four points. 

 

Ohio State should have little trouble with Indiana, but don’t expect a 28-point win.  If the Hoosiers make this game close, then the seven point Michigan win at Bloomington will mean something.

 

Iowa is off this week, and this gives the Hawkeyes an extra week to prepare for the Wolverines.

 

Wisconsin is not out of the race yet, but the Badgers have a tough road to climb.  They entertain Minnesota and should retain Paul Bunyan’s Axe.  Speaking of axes, that is what Gopher coach Tim Brewster is going to receive before the end of the season.

 

Sitting pretty at 5-0, Northwestern should defeat Purdue to move to 6-0 for the first time since Ara Parseghian led the Wildcats to a 6-0 start in 1962.  Of course, that Wildcat team moved to number one in the AP Poll following the 6-0 start.

 

Big 12

Undefeated Nebraska is travelling to the Little Apple for a tough trap game Thursday night against Kansas State.  Coach Bill Snyder has KSU 4-0 for the first time since 2003.  We believe the Cornhuskers are a bit overrated and ripe for the upset, but we think Coach Bo Pelini’s troops will find a way to win a low-scoring game.

 

A couple of other games will provide clues as to which teams will go bowling and which will not.  Texas Tech faces Baylor at the Cotton Bowl, and the lose will be in trouble.  Baylor is 4-1.  The Bears were 4-1 in 2005 and gave Nebraska and Oklahoma great battles the next two weeks but lost both.  The last time the Bears were 5-1 was 1994, which is also the last season they played in a bowl game.

 

Missouri hosts Colorado.  The Tigers may have enough talent to challenge Nebraska for the North Division title, but they have some tough games facing them prior to playing the Cornhuskers.  The Buffaloes need three more wins to become bowl eligible, and we believe they will get them with one more for good measure.  If CU can pull off the upset, the Buffs could have an outside shot at still being in contention in the North when they face Nebraska in Lincoln on the Friday after Thanksgiving.

 

Pac-10

Oregon benefits big time this week.  The Ducks, ripe for a big bounce, face hapless Washington State. 

 

Stanford must play Southern Cal, and the Trojans will give the Cardinal their best after the embarrassment Stanford handed them last year.  Expect a game with a lot of 15-yard personal foul penalties, and we would not be surprised if there was a fight at some point.

 

Arizona should handle Oregon State to remain undefeated.  The Wildcats should be 7-0 when they travel to Pasadena to face UCLA on October 30.

 

The Bruins face Cal in Berkeley this week.  The winner can go ahead and make bowl plans, while fans of the loser will start to panic a little.

 

SEC

This is the biggest trap game of the week.  Top-ranked Alabama faces its third tough opponent in as many weeks.  They must go on the road to face Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina Gamecocks.  USC had a week off, and Coach Superior has had two weeks to prepare for this game.  Expect one that is up for grabs in the final minutes.

 

Florida hosts LSU in a trap game.  The Gators should handle the Tigers, but if they come out a lay an egg, Les Miles’ squad could become a very lucky 6-0.

 

Coach Derrick Dooley takes his Tennessee Volunteers between the Hedges to face the team that made his father a legend.  Georgia is 1-4, and if they lose to the 2-3 Vols, Coach Mark Richt’s fate may be sealed if it isn’t already.

 

Auburn visits Kentucky.  The Wildcats are not as talented as the Tigers and should give up 35-45 points, but we believe this could be an interesting game.

 

TCU/Boise State

TCU hosts Wyoming, and even though the Cowboys played the Horned Frogs close for 25 minutes last year, we see a four touchdown or greater victory.

 

Boise State hosts Toledo.  The Broncos won 59-0 over New Mexico State and fell one spot in the polls, and this may force Chris Petersen to go for the jugular against teams that have no chance.  The Broncos have the potential to score 70 or more points in this game.

 

Let’s take a look at the PiRate Top 25, the ratings for all 120 FBS teams, and the computer spreads for our three rating systems:

 

NCAA Top 25 October 4, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Alabama 132.5 5 0
2 Oregon 132.0 5 0
3 Boise State 128.2 4 0
4 Arkansas 125.1 3 1
5 T C U 124.9 5 0
6 Oklahoma 124.4 5 0
7 Ohio State 124.0 5 0
8 Stanford 123.0 4 1
9 Miami (Fla) 122.5 3 1
10 Iowa 121.6 4 1
11 Florida State 121.2 4 1
12 South Carolina 121.0 3 1
13 Nebraska 120.8 4 0
14 Florida 119.3 4 1
15 Auburn 119.3 5 0
16 Virginia Tech 118.9 3 2
17 Arizona 118.0 4 0
18 North Carolina 116.3 2 2
19 Texas 116.0 3 2
20 California 115.0 2 2
21 Texas A&M 115.0 3 1
22 L S U 114.5 5 0
23 Wisconsin 114.3 4 1
24 Georgia Tech 114.3 3 2
25 Clemson 113.2 2 2
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 2-0 4-1 121.2
Clemson 0-1 2-2 113.2
North Carolina State 1-1 4-1 105.2
Boston College 0-1 2-2 104.6
Wake Forest 1-2 2-3 100.8
Maryland 1-0 4-1 95.4
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Miami-FL 1-0 3-1 122.5
Virginia Tech 2-0 3-2 118.9
North Carolina 0-1 2-2 116.3
Georgia Tech 2-1 3-2 114.3
Virginia 0-1 2-2 95.9
Duke 0-2 1-4 91.0

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 0-0 3-1 111.7
Connecticut 0-0 3-2 109.1
Pittsburgh 0-0 2-2 107.4
Cincinnati 0-0 1-3 107.0
South Florida 0-0 3-1 103.6
Syracuse 0-0 3-1 99.8
Louisville 0-0 2-2 94.8
Rutgers 0-0 2-2 92.7

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 1-0 5-0 124.0
Iowa 1-0 4-1 121.6
Wisconsin 0-1 4-1 114.3
Michigan State 1-0 5-0 110.5
Michigan 1-0 5-0 110.1
Penn State 0-1 3-2 108.0
Illinois 0-1 2-2 100.6
Northwestern 1-0 5-0 97.4
Minnesota 0-1 1-4 94.9
Purdue 0-0 2-2 94.6
Indiana 0-1 3-1 92.9

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 0-0 4-0 120.8
Missouri 0-0 4-0 112.3
Colorado 0-0 3-1 104.3
Iowa State 1-1 3-2 98.4
Kansas State 1-0 4-0 97.8
Kansas 0-1 2-3 95.0
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 1-0 5-0 124.4
Texas 1-1 3-2 116.0
Texas A&M 0-1 3-1 115.0
Baylor 1-0 4-1 107.0
Texas Tech 0-2 2-2 106.9
Oklahoma State 1-0 4-0 104.9

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Southern Mississippi 1-0 4-1 95.6
Central Florida 0-0 2-2 95.2
East Carolina 2-0 2-2 91.6
U A B 0-1 1-3 89.5
Marshall 0-1 1-4 84.8
Memphis 0-3 1-4 76.4
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 2-0 3-1 102.9
S M U 2-0 3-2 97.1
Tulsa 1-1 3-2 92.9
Rice 0-1 1-4 85.2
U T E P 1-1 4-1 84.3
Tulane 0-1 2-2 77.6

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   2-3 111.0
Navy   2-2 99.5
Army   3-2 86.4

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 1-0 4-1 94.2
Miami (O) 2-0 3-2 89.0
Kent St. 0-1 1-3 85.5
Ohio U 1-1 2-3 83.4
Buffalo 1-0 2-3 82.5
Bowling Green 0-1 1-4 78.6
Akron 0-1 0-5 71.0
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 1-0 3-2 94.1
Central Michigan 1-2 2-3 87.5
Toledo 2-0 3-2 85.1
Ball State 1-0 2-3 82.8
Western Michigan 0-1 1-3 75.4
Eastern Michigan 0-3 0-5 70.4

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 1-0 5-0 124.9
Utah 2-0 4-0 111.3
Air Force 2-0 4-1 105.7
S. D. State 0-0 3-1 99.9
B Y U 0-1 1-4 96.6
Wyoming 0-1 2-3 94.0
UNLV 1-1 1-4 92.4
Colo. State 0-1 1-4 85.2
New Mexico 0-2 0-5 73.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 2-0 5-0 132.0
Stanford 1-1 4-1 123.0
Arizona 1-0 4-0 118.0
California 0-1 2-2 115.0
Washington 1-0 2-2 113.1
Oregon St. 1-0 2-2 112.1
Southern Cal 1-1 4-1 111.0
U C L A 1-1 3-2 109.8
Arizona St. 0-2 2-3 103.5
Wash. St. 0-2 1-4 88.2

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 1-1 3-1 121.0
Florida 2-1 4-1 119.3
Georgia 0-3 1-4 108.7
Kentucky 0-2 3-2 102.3
Tennessee 0-2 2-3 101.0
Vanderbilt 1-1 1-3 95.8
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 2-0 5-0 132.5
Arkansas 1-1 3-1 125.1
Auburn 2-0 5-0 119.3
L S U 3-0 5-0 114.5
Mississippi State 1-2 3-2 111.6
Ole Miss 1-1 3-2 102.9

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Middle Tennessee 1-0 2-2 87.8
Troy 1-0 2-2 87.4
Florida International 0-0 0-4 81.6
North Texas 1-1 1-4 81.3
U. of Louisiana 2-1 2-2 80.6
Florida Atlantic 0-1 1-3 79.5
Arkansas State 1-2 1-4 78.8
Louisiana-Monroe 0-1 1-3 74.4
Western Kentucky 0-0 0-4 73.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 1-0 4-0 128.2
Nevada 0-0 5-0 110.5
Fresno State 1-0 3-1 100.6
Utah State 0-1 2-3 97.8
Idaho 0-0 3-2 93.4
Hawaii 1-0 3-2 90.5
Louisiana Tech 0-1 1-4 90.0
San Jose State 0-0 1-4 78.6
New Mexico State 0-1 0-4 72.3

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
Tuesday, October 5      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Troy 3.4 34-31
       
Wednesday, October 6      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
CENTRAL FLORIDA U  a  b 8.7 33-24
       
Thursday, October 7      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Nebraska KANSAS STATE 20.0 27-7
       
Friday, October 8      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Connecticut RUTGERS 13.4 30-17
Oklahoma State LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 21.3 42-21
       
Saturday, October 2      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
ARIZONA Oregon State 8.9 26-17
CALIFORNIA U  c  l  a 8.2 31-23
FLORIDA L  s  u 8.3 21-13
SOUTH FLORIDA Syracuse 7.3 24-17
GEORGIA TECH Virginia 21.4 38-17
GEORGIA Tennessee 10.7 27-16
Utah IOWA STATE 8.9 27-18
Auburn KENTUCKY 14.0 38-24
LOUISVILLE Memphis 21.4 31-10
MICHIGAN Michigan State 2.6 34-31
MISSOURI Colorado 11.0 24-13
NORTH CAROLINA ST. Boston College 3.6 21-17
NORTH CAROLINA Clemson 6.1 27-21
WAKE FOREST Navy 4.3 24-20
OHIO STATE Indiana 34.6 52-17
PENN STATE Illinois 10.9 21-10
VANDERBILT Eastern Michigan 28.4 35-7
Arkansas  (Cowboys Stad) Texas A&M 9.1 35-26
NORTH TEXAS Arkansas State 5.0 35-30
WASHINGTON Arizona State 13.1 34-21
Oregon WASHINGTON STATE 40.8 48-7
WISCONSIN Minnesota 22.4 42-20
BALL STATE Western Michigan 9.9 31-21
CINCINNATI Miami (O) 20.5 35-14
FLORIDA INT’L Western Kentucky 10.9 31-20
MIAMI (FL) Florida State 3.8 28-24
NEVADA San Jose State 34.9 49-14
NORTHERN ILLINOIS Temple 2.9 24-21
Alabama SOUTH CAROLINA 8.5 25-16
Baylor (Cotton Bowl) Texas Tech 0.1 27-27 to ot
VIRGINIA TECH Central Michigan 35.4 41-6
OHIO U Bowling Green 7.3 24-17
AIR FORCE Colorado State 23.0 35-12
WEST VIRGINIA U  n  l  v 23.3 33-10
KENT STATE Akron 17.0 27-10
Army TULANE 6.3 23-17
NOTRE DAME Pittsburgh 6.6 24-17
T  C  U Wyoming 34.4 41-7
Utah State LOUISIANA TECH 4.5 28-23
San Diego State B  Y  U 0.3 28-28 to ot
Florida Atlantic LOUISIANA-MONROE 2.6 30-27
NORTHWESTERN Purdue 5.8 27-21
SOUTHERN MISS East Carolina 7.0 30-23
STANFORD Southern Cal 15.0 35-20
BOISE STATE Toledo 47.1 61-14
Mississippi State HOUSTON 5.7 34-28
S  M  U Tulsa 7.2 38-31
NEW MEXICO STATE New Mexico 1.4 24-23
U  T  E  P Rice 1.6 34-32
FRESNO STATE Hawaii 13.1 37-24

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings
Tuesday, October 5      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
MIDDLE TENNESSEE Troy 35-30 30-28
       
Wednesday, October 6      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
CENTRAL FLORIDA U  a  b 30-21 27-20
       
Thursday, October 7      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Nebraska KANSAS STATE 28-10 20-10
       
Friday, October 8      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Connecticut RUTGERS 27-24 31-17
Oklahoma State LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 38-17 38-17
       
Saturday, October 2      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
ARIZONA Oregon State 21-17 24-14
CALIFORNIA U  c  l  a 28-24 27-21
FLORIDA L  s  u 21-13 34-13
SOUTH FLORIDA Syracuse 30-20 26-14
GEORGIA TECH Virginia 33-21 30-20
GEORGIA Tennessee 21-16 26-20
Utah IOWA STATE 24-17 26-23
Auburn KENTUCKY 34-27 41-20
LOUISVILLE Memphis 31-14 31-13
MICHIGAN Michigan State 38-34 38-34
MISSOURI Colorado 35-27 35-27
NORTH CAROLINA ST. Boston College 27-17 27-17
NORTH CAROLINA Clemson 23-17 24-21
Navy WAKE FOREST 28-27 28-24
OHIO STATE Indiana 48-19 37-20
PENN STATE Illinois 24-10 20-10
VANDERBILT Eastern Michigan 34-7 34-14
Arkansas  (Cowboys Stad) Texas A&M 40-27 41-24
Arkansas State NORTH TEXAS 31-30 31-34
WASHINGTON Arizona State 35-30 35-26
Oregon WASHINGTON STATE 56-12 56-10
WISCONSIN Minnesota 33-21 35-20
BALL STATE Western Michigan 30-17 24-23
CINCINNATI Miami (O) 34-14 27-17
FLORIDA INT’L Western Kentucky 25-17 26-17
MIAMI (FL) Florida State 27-20 24-20
NEVADA San Jose State 49-16 48-14
Temple NORTHERN ILLINOIS 27-23 20-21
Alabama SOUTH CAROLINA 26-10 26-13
Texas Tech (Cotton Bowl) Baylor 28-26 27-34
VIRGINIA TECH Central Michigan 31-6 35-0
OHIO U Bowling Green 24-17 28-17
AIR FORCE Colorado State 37-10 27-12
WEST VIRGINIA U  n  l  v 35-14 37-14
KENT STATE Akron 30-17 27-20
Army TULANE 24-17 16-19
NOTRE DAME Pittsburgh 24-19 23-17
T  C  U Wyoming 37-7 26-7
Utah State LOUISIANA TECH 28-27 24-28
B  Y  U San Diego State 28-24 21-31
Florida Atlantic LOUISIANA-MONROE 24-24 to ot 27-17
NORTHWESTERN Purdue 31-20 29-20
SOUTHERN MISS East Carolina 30-23 28-23
STANFORD Southern Cal 40-27 44-27
BOISE STATE Toledo 45-10 55-13
Mississippi State HOUSTON 30-21 26-20
S  M  U Tulsa 41-33 42-34
NEW MEXICO STATE New Mexico 24-24 to ot 27-24
U  T  E  P Rice 38-33 38-30
FRESNO STATE Hawaii 40-31 38-35

 

September 27, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: September 30-October 2, 2010

Sometimes, you are lucky, and sometimes you are not.  It usually balances out.  We had our share of both good luck and bad luck this past weekend, and it balanced out.  Our selections against the spread continued to find success, as we returned a good profit to those of you who chose to utilize our services.  We chose only underdog selections this week, and it was a winning proposition.  Our record was 6-2-1, which brings our record to date to 24-10-2 (70.6% against the spread).

 

Here is the breakdown:

1. SMU +17 vs. TCU

Tie

This was one of those bad luck instances.  The Mustangs stayed with their Metroplex rival for most of the night and only a late TCU surge caused this one to end in a push.

 

2. Rutgers +12 vs. North Carolina

WON

We acknowledged that the Tar Heels should win the game, but we loved an undefeated home team playing a winless road team and getting double-digit points.

 

3. 10-point Teaser: Northwestern +3 ½ vs. Central Michigan, UCLA +25 ½ vs. Texas, and Virginia Tech +6 vs. Boston College

WON

We felt that Northwestern would win their game but were not confident enough to take the Wildcats as a 6 ½-point pick.  We did not pick UCLA to pull off the upset, but we felt like Texas would have a difficult time scoring 26 points and took the Bruins.  We mentioned that Virginia Tech looked like a solid pick at -4, but since we were playing all underdogs, we took the Hokies in this teaser.

 

4. Cleveland +10 ½ vs. Baltimore

WON

Our reasoning here was some doubt about Joe Flacco and the Ravens’ tendency to play it too close to the vest.  Also, the Browns have been keeping games close this year, and we look to possibly use them in additional selections until they prove unworthy.

 

5. Detroit +13 vs. Minnesota

Loss

Here is another bad luck game for us.  The Lions were driving for a score as time ran out.  We missed this one by one lousy point, but Detroit had no reason to kick a field goal down by 14 in the final two minutes.

 

6. Kansas City +3 vs. San Francisco

WON

Again, we had an undefeated home ‘dog against a winless road favorite.  The 49ers are overhyped every year, and they continue to fail to live up to those lofty standards.  They trail the Rams now.

 

7. 10-point teaser: Buffalo +24 ½ vs. New England, Cleveland +20 ½ vs. Baltimore, and Pittsburgh +8 ½ vs. Tampa Bay

WON

We felt that the Patriots could not blow the Bills off the field, but we did not see Buffalo threatening to win this game.  We were happy with an 8-point game.  What we thought about the Browns at +10 ½ went double for this teaser pick.  We felt Pittsburgh would cover the regular spread against a vastly overrated Bucs team, so we loved getting more than a touchdown.

 

8. 10-point teaser: New York Giants +7 ½ vs. Tennessee, Kansas City +13 vs. San Francisco, and Detroit +21 vs. Minnesota

Loss

We thought we were safe taking the Giants at home and getting more than a touchdown, but stupidity cost them big time.  They outgained the Titans by 200 yards and still were blown out!  We hit the rest of the parlay, but it did not matter.

 

9. Moneyline Parlay at -118: New England over Buffalo, Baltimore over Cleveland, and Indianapolis over Denver

WON

This was sort of an insurance policy.  If the Patriots and Ravens won by too many points, at least we would win this game.  We were fortunate to win this one in addition to the other selections

 

It counts for nothing, but if you read this blog last week, we told you that we thought two Big Ten teams would be upset and were correct in picking Purdue and Minnesota to lose to their MAC guests.  We do not see Tim Brewster keeping his job in Minneapolis after this season, and Danny Hope is beginning to tread in deep water in West Lafayette.  With somebody like Brady Hoke at San Diego State and his ties to the Midwest, or even the availability of Mike Leach, the Gophers have options.  Glen Mason’s 38-25 record in his last five years doesn’t look so bad now, does it Minny fans?

 

NCAA Playoffs

 

You say you want an NCAA playoff in the FBS division?  Okay, you’ve got one.  Think of this Saturday as an Elite Eight weekend.  Look at the matchups:

 

1. Alabama vs. Florida

2. Oregon vs. Stanford

3. Ohio State vs. Illinois, Michigan vs. Indiana, and Wisconsin vs. Michigan State

4. Oklahoma vs. Texas plus TCU and Boise State in must blowout games

 

At least two of the top teams will lose this week, more than likely eliminating themselves from the National Championship Game.  Sure, they could still play back into the title picture.  The problem is with TCU and Boise State.  Both are in the top five, and both should win out.  It will be major trouble if an undefeated TCU and Boise State lose out to a one-loss team from an automatic qualifying conference.  Can you say Congressional hearings and lawsuits out the wazoo?

 

Here’s our weekly look at the PiRate Ratings along with the mean and biased spreads.

 

NCAA Top 25 September 27, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Alabama 130.4 4 0
2 Oregon 129.0 4 0
3 Boise State 125.4 3 0
4 Ohio State 125.3 4 0
5 T C U 125.2 4 0
6 Arkansas 125.1 3 1
7 Stanford 125.0 4 0
8 Oklahoma 124.4 4 0
9 Miami (Fla) 122.0 2 1
10 Florida 121.3 4 0
11 South Carolina 121.0 3 1
12 Nebraska 120.8 4 0
13 Iowa 120.1 3 1
14 Florida State 119.4 3 1
15 Auburn 119.2 4 0
16 Virginia Tech 118.4 2 2
17 Arizona 118.0 4 0
18 L S U 116.8 4 0
19 Wisconsin 116.7 4 0
20 North Carolina 116.1 1 2
21 Texas 116.0 3 1
22 Texas A&M 115.7 3 0
23 Georgia Tech 115.3 2 2
24 California 115.0 2 2
25 Clemson 113.7 2 1
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 1-0 3-1 119.4
Clemson 0-0 2-1 113.7
Boston College 0-1 2-1 107.0
North Carolina State 1-0 4-0 105.6
Wake Forest 1-1 2-2 99.8
Maryland 0-0 3-1 95.6
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Miami-FL 0-0 2-1 122.0
Virginia Tech 1-0 2-2 118.4
North Carolina 0-1 1-2 116.1
Georgia Tech 1-1 2-2 115.3
Virginia 0-0 2-1 97.3
Duke 0-1 1-3 90.8

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 0-0 3-1 111.7
Connecticut 0-0 2-2 108.6
Pittsburgh 0-0 1-2 108.2
Cincinnati 0-0 1-3 107.0
South Florida 0-0 2-1 103.9
Syracuse 0-0 3-1 99.8
Rutgers 0-0 2-1 96.3
Louisville 0-0 1-2 95.0

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 0-0 4-0 125.3
Iowa 0-0 3-1 120.1
Wisconsin 0-0 4-0 116.7
Michigan 0-0 4-0 111.4
Penn State 0-0 3-1 109.0
Michigan State 0-0 4-0 107.8
Illinois 0-0 2-1 99.1
Northwestern 0-0 4-0 96.7
Minnesota 0-0 1-3 95.6
Purdue 0-0 2-2 94.6
Indiana 0-0 3-0 91.4

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 0-0 4-0 120.8
Missouri 0-0 4-0 112.3
Colorado 0-0 2-1 103.2
Kansas 0-0 2-2 99.5
Kansas State 1-0 4-0 97.8
Iowa State 0-1 2-2 95.1
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 0-0 4-0 124.4
Texas 1-0 3-1 116.0
Texas A&M 0-0 3-0 115.7
Texas Tech 0-1 2-1 111.4
Oklahoma State 0-0 3-0 104.2
Baylor 0-0 3-1 102.5

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 0-0 2-2 95.2
Southern Mississippi 0-0 3-1 93.4
East Carolina 2-0 2-1 91.6
U A B 0-1 1-3 89.5
Marshall 0-0 1-3 87.0
Memphis 0-2 1-3 77.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 2-0 3-1 102.9
S M U 1-0 2-2 96.0
Tulsa 0-1 2-2 89.9
Rice 0-0 1-3 85.7
U T E P 1-1 3-1 82.9
Tulane 0-1 1-2 74.0

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   1-3 108.5
Navy   2-1 99.8
Army   3-1 86.4

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 1-0 3-1 93.9
Miami (O) 1-0 2-2 88.8
Kent St. 0-0 1-2 85.7
Ohio U 0-1 1-3 83.1
Buffalo 0-0 1-3 81.9
Bowling Green 0-0 1-3 79.7
Akron 0-0 0-4 75.0
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Northern Illinois 0-0 2-2 91.3
Central Michigan 1-1 2-2 91.0
Toledo 2-0 3-1 85.1
Ball State 0-0 1-3 79.3
Western Michigan 0-1 1-2 77.0
Eastern Michigan 0-2 0-4 70.7

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 0-0 4-0 125.2
Utah 2-0 4-0 111.3
Air Force 2-0 3-1 105.3
B Y U 0-1 1-3 100.1
S. D. State 0-0 3-1 99.9
Wyoming 0-1 1-3 93.5
UNLV 1-1 1-3 92.8
Colo. State 0-0 1-3 83.4
New Mexico 0-2 0-4 74.8

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 1-0 4-0 129.0
Stanford 1-0 4-0 125.0
Arizona 1-0 4-0 118.0
California 0-1 2-2 115.0
Oregon St. 0-0 1-2 112.5
Washington 0-0 1-2 112.0
Southern Cal 1-0 4-0 111.5
U C L A 0-1 2-2 110.0
Arizona St. 0-1 2-2 102.5
Wash. St. 0-1 1-3 87.5

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida 2-0 4-0 121.3
South Carolina 1-1 3-1 121.0
Georgia 0-3 1-3 113.2
Kentucky 0-1 3-1 102.5
Tennessee 0-1 2-2 99.9
Vanderbilt 1-1 1-2 96.3
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 1-0 4-0 130.4
Arkansas 1-1 3-1 125.1
Auburn 2-0 4-0 119.2
L S U 2-0 4-0 116.8
Mississippi State 1-2 2-2 111.9
Ole Miss 0-1 2-2 102.5

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 1-0 2-2 87.4
Middle Tennessee 1-0 2-2 87.8
North Texas 1-0 1-3 82.4
Florida International 0-0 0-3 80.8
U. of Louisiana 1-1 1-2 79.5
Florida Atlantic 0-1 1-2 79.2
Arkansas State 1-2 1-3 78.6
Louisiana-Monroe 0-1 1-2 74.4
Western Kentucky 0-0 0-4 73.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 0-0 3-0 125.4
Nevada 0-0 4-0 109.1
Fresno State 0-0 2-1 101.1
Utah State 0-0 1-3 94.3
Louisiana Tech 0-0 1-3 92.4
Idaho 0-0 2-2 91.8
Hawaii 0-0 2-2 87.5
San Jose State 0-0 1-3 80.6
New Mexico State 0-0 0-3 74.8

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
Thursday, September 30      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Texas A&M OKLAHOMA STATE 8.5 37-28
       
Friday, October 1      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
B y u UTAH STATE 3.3 24-21
       
Saturday, October 2      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Oklahoma  (Dallas) Texas 8.4 24-16
CONNECTICUT Vanderbilt 15.8 33-17
Ohio U EASTERN MICHIGAN 9.9 31-21
MIAMI (O) Kent State 6.1 27-21
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Ball State 14.7 28-13
Northern Illinois AKRON 13.8 31-17
Idaho WESTERN MICHIGAN 11.3 42-31
Wisconsin MICHIGAN STATE 5.9 27-21
Michigan INDIANA 17.0 41-24
MINNESOTA Northwestern 1.9 25-23
Virginia Tech NORTH CAROLINA ST. 9.3 21-12
Temple ARMY 5.0 19-14
NORTH CAROLINA East Carolina 27.5 45-17
RUTGERS Tulane 25.8 33-7
BOWLING GREEN Buffalo 0.8 24-23
Georgia Tech WAKE FOREST 12.5 37-24
MARYLAND Duke 7.8 30-22
Texas Tech IOWA STATE 13.3 33-20
OLE MISS Kentucky 3.0 31-28
Tulsa MEMPHIS 9.5 34-24
BAYLOR Kansas 6.0 27-21
T c u COLORADO STATE 38.8 49-10
AIR FORCE Navy 9.0 37-28
BOSTON COLLEGE Notre Dame 1.5 26-24
L S U Tennessee 20.4 30-10
Ohio State ILLINOIS 23.2 40-17
Georgia COLORADO 6.5 27-20
U t e p NEW MEXICO 6.1 27-21
U C L A Washington State 26.5 34-7
OREGON STATE Arizona State 13.5 38-24
Wyoming TOLEDO 4.9 31-26
S m u RICE 7.3 34-27
Florida State VIRGINIA 18.6 35-16
ALABAMA Florida 12.6 31-18
SOUTHERN MISS Marshall 9.4 33-24
IOWA Penn State 14.6 27-12
SOUTHERN CAL Washington 3.0 24-21
Miami (Fl) CLEMSON 5.3 35-30
Boise State NEW MEXICO ST. 48.1 62-14
Nevada U N L V 13.3 34-21
OREGON Stanford 7.5 38-30
Louisiana Tech HAWAII 0.9 32-31
PITTSBURGH Florida Int’l 30.9 34-3
Louisville ARKANSAS STATE 13.4 34-21
NORTH TEXAS UL-Lafayette 5.9 34-28
AUBURN UL-Monroe 48.8 56-7
SOUTH FLORIDA Florida Atlantic 27.7 42-14

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings
       
Thursday, September 30      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
OKLAHOMA STATE Texas A&M 37-31 30-34
       
Friday, October 1      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
B y u UTAH STATE 31-24 28-16
       
Saturday, October 2      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Oklahoma  (Dallas) Texas 23-17 20-10
CONNECTICUT Vanderbilt 21-16 20-13
Ohio U EASTERN MICHIGAN 33-24 34-20
MIAMI (O) Kent State 28-26 34-24
CENTRAL MICHIGAN Ball State 33-14 35-14
Northern Illinois AKRON 29-16 31-14
Idaho WESTERN MICHIGAN 36-31 35-38
MICHIGAN STATE Wisconsin 24-24 to ot 27-20
Michigan INDIANA 38-27 41-20
Northwestern MINNESOTA 34-24 31-27
Virginia Tech NORTH CAROLINA ST. 17-16 20-10
Temple ARMY 21-14 21-10
NORTH CAROLINA East Carolina 26-16 24-17
RUTGERS Tulane 35-14 35-17
BOWLING GREEN Buffalo 31-23 34-24
Georgia Tech WAKE FOREST 37-31 38-30
MARYLAND Duke 41-27 44-27
Texas Tech IOWA STATE 30-25 31-21
OLE MISS Kentucky 35-34 31-30
Tulsa MEMPHIS 38-31 45-24
BAYLOR Kansas 31-24 30-24
T c u COLORADO STATE 37-7 45-10
AIR FORCE Navy 30-21 28-23
BOSTON COLLEGE Notre Dame 24-22 23-20
L S U Tennessee 31-13 24-10
Ohio State ILLINOIS 42-24 38-17
Georgia COLORADO 27-25 28-26
U t e p NEW MEXICO 38-28 49-24
U C L A Washington State 37-10 34-13
OREGON STATE Arizona State 34-26 35-28
TOLEDO Wyoming 37-31 38-31
S m u RICE 37-28 41-26
Florida State VIRGINIA 23-17 27-16
ALABAMA Florida 23-16 28-13
SOUTHERN MISS Marshall 35-24 33-24
IOWA Penn State 17-12 17-10
SOUTHERN CAL Washington 35-23 38-24
Miami (Fl) CLEMSON 30-26 28-25
Boise State NEW MEXICO ST. 48-7 61-9
Nevada U N L V 41-22 38-24
OREGON Stanford 41-35 41-28
HAWAII Louisiana Tech 28-22 30-17
PITTSBURGH Florida Int’l 28-10 28-10
Louisville ARKANSAS STATE 24-22 27-17
NORTH TEXAS UL-Lafayette 31-27 31-26
AUBURN UL-Monroe 44-12 52-16
SOUTH FLORIDA Florida Atlantic 29-12 24-19

September 20, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: September 23-25, 2010

It was not as pretty as the first two weeks, but the PiRate Ratings eeked out another winner, making it three for three in 2010.  We finished 5-4, making our record for the season against the spread 18-8-1.  We are still quite pleased with our near 70% record, and we are beginning to pick up on some tendencies. 

Our 13-point sweetheart teasers in the NFL are doing quite well.  It looks like a year of closer games in the pro league, and moving the pointspread by 13 points in our favor may be a wise move when we can locate games that are already a point or two off what we think they should be.  We love finding teams that are favorites and moving them to ‘dogs.  Here are the picks in depth.

 

1. California -2 ½ vs. Nevada

Loss

We blew this one to start off the weekend in the hole.  The Wolf Pack skinned the Bears, who when last spotted were more scared of the pistol than the 20-gauge.

 

2. Alabama -24 vs. Duke

WON

The Tide covered the spread in the first quarter.  We felt that the oddsmakers and bettors were giving the Blue Devils too much credit and home field advantage.

 

3. 13-point teaser: Purdue -3 ½ vs. Ball State, East Carolina +32 ½ vs. Virginia Tech, Wisconsin -1 vs. Arizona State, Oregon State -6 ½ vs. Louisville

Loss

One caveat.  Many of you who bought our picks and played this on Friday would have actually won this selection.  Wisconsin was a 13 ½ point favorite and not 14, so you would have gotten the Badgers at – ½.  This is the one drawback of sweetheart teasers.  A regular teaser would have been a push here with Wisconsin winning by one, but we must count this one as a loss.

 

4. 13-point teaser: Boise State -10 ½ vs. Wyoming, Arizona + 14 ½ vs. Iowa, Memphis +18 vs. Middle Tennessee, Troy +10 vs. UAB

WON

None of these games were ever in doubt.  We loved Boise coming off a bye week.  We felt Arizona had a great shot at the upset and even if Iowa could win, we did not see the Hawkeyes travelling across two time zones and winning by more than two touchdowns.  We felt that Middle Tennessee could not beat Memphis by double digits, and they lost outright.  We did not see UAB beating Troy, but it was by one point, so we were safe.

 

5. Kansas City +1 vs. Cleveland

WON

Normally, we would not have played this game.  The Chiefs were coming off an emotional Monday night win against San Diego and were having to play on the road.  Usually, all momentum is lost under this circumstance.  However, we felt like the Chiefs could shut down Cleveland’s offense, and they did.

 

6. Atlanta & Arizona Under 43

Loss

We knew the Cardinals would not score many points in this game, but we didn’t think their defense would implode.  Atlanta showed no semblance of a running game against the Steelers, and we thought they would concentrate on running the ball in game two.  We were looking for a 24-13 game.

 

7. Moneyline Parlay at +110: Minnesota over Miami and Indianapolis over the Giants

Loss

The Vikings have returned to Viqueens status.  Brett Favre has looked like he should have stayed retired this time.  Miami may prove to be a great team this year, and it could be a case of Minnesota playing two outstanding opponents, but we may lay off the Vikings for a few weeks.

 

Indianapolis rebounded with a great game and earned our respect without us throwing our helmets into the stands.

 

8. 10-point teaser: Green Bay & Buffalo Over 33, Philadelphia & Detroit Over 32, Dallas & Chicago Over 31

WON

Here are three more games that covered for us with ease.  We were confident the Packers would score enough to cover even if the Bills were shut out.  We are down on the Eagles and believe the Lions will begin to win some more games this year, so we felt this game would at least top 40 total points.  We expected a shootout in Dallas with both teams topping 20 points, and even though we thought Dallas would win 24-21, we still won by playing only the total in this game.

 

9. 13-point teaser: Cleveland +12 vs. Kansas City, Cleveland & Kansas City Under 51, Baltimore +12 vs. Cincinnati, Pittsburgh +18 vs. Tennessee

WON

The Browns and Chiefs are the two teams that gave us our winning weekend.  We felt that Kansas City would win by less than a touchdown and that neither team would top 24 points.  We thought the Ravens and Bengals would have a fantastic matchup with the game being decided by less than a touchdown either way.  Even though we expected a few more points, we were happy with the 15-10 Cinti win.  We had no way of knowing the Titans would have as many turnovers as first downs until late in the game; we expected a 14-10 Tennessee win, but we were safe in this game after the opening kickoff.

 

Odds and Ends

 

ACC and Big East Better Look Behind Them

 

The Mountain West Conference may be on the brink of becoming the fifth best conference in college football.  Even with the loss of Utah, the additions of Boise State, Fresno State, and Nevada may move the MWC ahead of the ACC and Big East.

 

If this season were factored into the equation, you would have two top five teams in TCU and Boise State, as well as Air Force, Nevada, Fresno State, BYU, and two up and coming teams in San Diego State and Wyoming.

 

If the Big Ten raids the ACC and/or the Big East, the new Mountain West could indeed become the fifth best league in the land.

 

Could The Pac-10 Land Two Teams in BCS Bowl Without The Trojans?

 

Oregon continues to lead the way in the PiRate Ratings poll.  Arizona and Stanford keep moving up.  Is it possible that two of these three teams could end up in a BCS Bowl in January? 

 

Oregon hosts the Wildcats and Cardinal, and the Ducks look unbeatable three weeks into the season.  True, New Mexico and Portland State offered no competition, and Tennessee is headed toward a probable losing season.  However, this team is certainly much better this year than when they won the conference last year.

 

Stanford looks like a team capable of going 10-2 or 11-1.  If they win at Notre Dame this week, it will set up the best Pac-10 game since the Southern Cal and California game in 2004 when the Cardinal visit Autzen Stadium to take on the Ducks the following week.

 

Arizona suffers by playing at Oregon and at Stanford, but the Wildcats could easily win 10 games this year.

 

Another Big Week in the SEC

 

Could Alabama be stronger this season after losing so much talent from last year’s title run?  A defense that lost nine starters and 13 of the top 16 tacklers appears to be even tougher this year.  The offense is definitely better with the maturity of Greg McElroy at quarterback.

 

This starts a three-week grind for Nick Saban’s troops, as Alabama plays at Arkansas, hosts Florida, and goes to South Carolina.  Check back in three weeks.  If Alabama is 6-0, then they will win the next seven games as well and enter the National Championship Game at 13-0 for the second consecutive season.

 

Will Arkansas give Alabama a tough game this week?  They might, but we have some doubts.  While Ryan Mallett and his stable of receivers aren’t far behind some of the weaker NFL passing units, the Tide’s secondary might be strong enough to shut down some of the weaker NFL passing units. 

 

Auburn hosts South Carolina and Florida hosts Kentucky in two battles of unbeatens.  We don’t expect the Wildcats to give the Gators a great game, but the Tigers and Gamecocks should be one to watch.

 

Outside of league play, LSU looks to move to 4-0 since they were national champs in 2007.  The Tigers face unbeaten West Virginia.

 

Will a Big Ten Team Get Upset This Week?

 

This is the week in Big Ten play where 10 teams host either a MAC or FCS opponent.  Illinois has an off week.  Could one or league teams lose? 

 

You can toss out Ohio State-Eastern Michigan, Wisconsin-Austin Peay, Iowa-Ball State, Michigan State-Northern Colorado, and Indiana-Akron.  These games are locks for the Big Ten team.

 

Penn State should beat Temple, but it is not a given.  Michigan should beat Bowling Green, but the Falcons are better than UMass.  Northwestern should move to 4-0 for the second time in three seasons, but Central Michigan has enough talent to hang with the Wildcats.

 

That leaves two possible upset opportunities.  Purdue hosts an improving Toledo team that has a lot of offensive firepower.  The Boilermakers have not been impressive to date, and Danny Hope could feel his seat warming if the Rockets win at Ross-Ade Stadium this week.  Minnesota hosts a Northern Illinois team that took Illinois to the final gun last week.  The Gophers are ripe for a bad bounce after playing Southern Cal last week.  They lost to South Dakota two weeks ago, and a loss in this game could get the ball rolling for an ouster of Tim Brewster as head coach.  It would be hard to find another UM victory if they lose this week.

 

NCAA Top 25 September 20, 2010

Rank

Team

PiRate

Won

Lost

1

Oregon

130.6

3

0

2

Alabama

130.2

3

0

3

T C U

126.0

3

0

4

Ohio State

125.8

3

0

5

Oklahoma

125.4

3

0

6

Arkansas

125.1

3

0

7

Boise State

124.8

2

0

8

Stanford

123.5

3

0

9

Nebraska

123.3

3

0

10

South Carolina

122.5

3

0

11

Miami (Fla)

120.5

1

1

12

Iowa

119.9

2

1

13

Georgia Tech

119.8

2

1

14

Florida

119.7

3

0

15

Texas

119.5

3

0

16

Arizona

118.3

3

0

17

North Carolina

118.2

0

2

18

Florida State

117.8

2

1

19

Auburn

117.1

3

0

20

Virginia Tech

117.1

1

2

21

L S U

116.9

3

0

22

Texas A&M

115.7

3

0

23

Georgia

115.5

1

2

24

California

115.3

2

1

25

Wisconsin

115.2

3

0

 

 

 

 

 

Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point

even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Florida State

0-0

2-1

117.8

Clemson

0-0

2-1

113.7

Boston College

0-0

2-0

108.3

Wake Forest

1-0

2-1

101.6

North Carolina State

0-0

3-0

101.1

Maryland

0-0

2-1

96.3

 

 

 

 

Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Miami-FL

0-0

1-1

120.5

Georgia Tech

1-0

2-1

119.8

North Carolina

0-1

0-2

118.2

Virginia Tech

0-0

1-2

117.1

Virginia

0-0

1-1

97.1

Duke

0-1

1-2

93.7

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

West Virginia

0-0

3-0

111.5

Pittsburgh

0-0

1-1

110.0

Connecticut

0-0

1-2

109.3

South Florida

0-0

1-1

105.7

Cincinnati

0-0

1-2

105.7

Syracuse

0-0

2-1

100.1

Rutgers

0-0

2-0

95.3

Louisville

0-0

1-2

95.0

 

Big Ten

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Ohio State

0-0

3-0

125.8

Iowa

0-0

2-1

119.9

Wisconsin

0-0

3-0

115.2

Penn State

0-0

2-1

109.8

Michigan

0-0

3-0

109.4

Michigan State

0-0

3-0

107.3

Illinois

0-0

2-1

99.1

Minnesota

0-0

1-2

98.3

Purdue

0-0

2-1

97.3

Northwestern

0-0

3-0

96.9

Indiana

0-0

2-0

92.2

 

Big 12

North Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nebraska

0-0

3-0

123.3

Missouri

0-0

3-0

111.2

Colorado

0-0

2-1

103.2

Kansas

0-0

1-2

99.3

Kansas State

1-0

3-0

98.1

Iowa State

0-1

1-2

94.9

 

 

 

 

South Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

0-0

3-0

125.4

Texas

1-0

3-0

119.5

Texas A&M

0-0

3-0

115.7

Texas Tech

0-1

2-1

111.4

Oklahoma State

0-0

3-0

104.2

Baylor

0-0

2-1

102.2

 

Conference USA

East Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Florida

0-0

2-1

94.9

Southern Mississippi

0-0

2-1

92.8

East Carolina

2-0

2-1

91.6

U A B

0-1

1-2

87.9

Marshall

0-0

0-3

87.7

Memphis

0-1

1-2

77.4

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

1-0

2-1

104.0

S M U

1-0

2-1

94.9

Tulsa

0-1

1-2

89.6

Rice

0-0

1-2

86.0

U T E P

0-1

2-1

83.4

Tulane

0-0

1-1

73.2

 

Independents

 

 

 

 

Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame

 

1-2

109.7

Navy

 

2-1

99.8

Army

 

2-1

84.1

 

Mid American Conference

East Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

1-0

3-0

92.6

Miami (O)

1-0

2-1

89.9

Kent St.

0-0

1-2

85.7

Ohio U

0-1

1-2

82.9

Buffalo

0-0

1-2

81.2

Bowling Green

0-0

1-2

80.9

Akron

0-0

0-3

74.7

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Central Michigan

1-1

2-1

90.8

Northern Illinois

0-0

1-2

89.3

Toledo

2-0

2-1

82.1

Ball State

0-0

1-2

79.8

Western Michigan

0-1

1-2

77.0

Eastern Michigan

0-2

0-3

70.2

 

Mountain West Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

T C U

0-0

3-0

126.0

Utah

2-0

3-0

107.5

Air Force

1-0

2-1

105.4

B Y U

0-1

1-2

101.4

S. D. State

0-0

2-1

95.4

Wyoming

0-0

1-2

93.4

UNLV

0-1

0-3

91.5

Colo. State

0-0

0-3

82.2

New Mexico

0-1

0-3

76.6

 

Pac-10 Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oregon

0-0

3-0

130.6

Stanford

1-0

3-0

123.5

Arizona

0-0

3-0

118.3

California

0-0

2-1

115.3

Oregon St.

0-0

1-1

112.6

Washington

0-0

1-2

112.0

Southern Cal

0-0

3-0

109.9

U C L A

0-1

1-2

106.5

Arizona St.

0-0

2-1

100.5

Wash. St.

0-0

1-2

89.5

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

South Carolina

1-0

3-0

122.5

Florida

1-0

3-0

119.7

Georgia

0-2

1-2

115.5

Kentucky

0-0

3-0

104.1

Tennessee

0-1

1-2

101.8

Vanderbilt

1-1

1-2

96.3

 

 

 

 

West Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

0-0

3-0

130.2

Arkansas

1-0

3-0

125.1

Auburn

1-0

3-0

117.1

L S U

2-0

3-0

116.9

Mississippi State

0-2

1-2

109.9

Ole Miss

0-1

1-2

101.4

 

Sunbelt Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Troy

0-0

1-2

87.6

Middle Tennessee

0-0

1-2

85.9

U. of Louisiana

1-0

1-1

81.4

North Texas

0-0

0-3

81.4

Florida International

0-0

0-2

80.4

Florida Atlantic

0-0

1-1

80.2

Arkansas State

1-1

1-2

78.4

Louisiana-Monroe

0-1

0-2

75.6

Western Kentucky

0-0

0-3

72.5

 

Western Athletic Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

0-0

2-0

124.8

Nevada

0-0

3-0

107.5

Fresno State

0-0

2-0

102.5

Utah State

0-0

1-2

97.1

Idaho

0-0

2-1

93.0

Louisiana Tech

0-0

1-2

93.0

Hawaii

0-0

1-2

86.3

San Jose State

0-0

1-2

83.4

New Mexico State

0-0

0-2

75.0

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)

 

 

Thursday, September 23

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Score

Miami-Fla

PITTSBURGH

7.0

31-24

 

 

 

 

Friday, September 24

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Score

T c u

S M U

30.7

45-14

 

 

 

 

Saturday, September 25

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Spread

Score

NORTHWESTERN

Central Michigan

9.1

28-19

PURDUE

Toledo

18.2

42-24

MICHIGAN

Bowling Green

32.0

49-17

IOWA

Ball State

44.1

47-3

OHIO STATE

Eastern Michigan

59.6

63-3

Virginia Tech

BOSTON COLLEGE

5.3

21-16

PENN STATE

Temple

20.2

30-10

GEORGIA TECH

North Carolina State

21.7

38-16

FLORIDA STATE

Wake Forest

19.7

48-28

DUKE

Army

12.5

30-17

CONNECTICUT

Buffalo

31.1

45-14

Georgia

MISSISSIPPI STATE

2.6

24-21

OLE MISS

Fresno State

1.9

26-24

KANSAS

New Mexico State

27.8

42-14

MISSOURI

Miami-Ohio

25.3

35-10

Air Force

WYOMING

9.0

37-28

KANSAS STATE

Central Florida

6.7

24-17

HOUSTON

Tulane

33.8

54-20

Oklahoma

CINCINNATI (P.Brown Sta)

16.7

38-21

Alabama

ARKANSAS

2.1

24-22

BOISE STATE

Oregon State

15.2

35-20

Stanford

NOTRE DAME

9.8

34-24

ARIZONA

California

6.2

30-24

TEXAS

U c l a

17.0

31-14

Idaho

COLORADO STATE

7.8

35-27

Nevada

B Y U

3.1

34-31

Southern Cal

WASHINGTON STATE

17.4

34-17

FLORIDA

Kentucky

19.6

37-17

LOUISIANA TECH

Southern Miss

2.7

34-31

TENNESSEE

U a b

17.4

30-13

INDIANA

Akron

20.5

35-14

MARSHALL

Ohio U

7.3

28-21

South Carolina

AUBURN

2.4

24-22

UTAH

San Jose State

27.1

44-17

SAN DIEGO STATE

Utah State

1.3

31-30

L S U

West Virginia

8.9

23-14

Baylor

RICE

13.7

38-24

North Carolina

RUTGERS

19.9

37-17

MINNESOTA

Northern Illinois

12.0

35-23

UTEP

Memphis

9.0

37-28

U N L V

New Mexico

17.9

35-17

Oregon

ARIZONA STATE

26.6

37-10

TROY

Arkansas State

12.2

31-19

Middle Tennessee

UL-LAFAYETTE

2.0

26-24

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

North Texas

1.8

30-28

SOUTH FLORIDA

Western Kentucky

36.2

49-13

MARYLAND

Florida International

19.4

35-16

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings

 

 

 

 

Thursday, September 23

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Mean

Biased

PITTSBURGH

Miami-Fla

25-24

20-28

 

 

 

 

Friday, September 24

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Mean

Biased

T c u

S M U

41-24

44-17

 

 

 

 

Saturday, September 25

 

 

 

Favorite

Underdog

Mean

Biased

NORTHWESTERN

Central Michigan

28-23

27-13

PURDUE

Toledo

31-23

31-27

MICHIGAN

Bowling Green

44-28

45-24

IOWA

Ball State

35-7

41-6

OHIO STATE

Eastern Michigan

51-7

56-0

Virginia Tech

BOSTON COLLEGE

24-20

23-21

PENN STATE

Temple

24-13

24-10

GEORGIA TECH

North Carolina State

34-27

31-26

FLORIDA STATE

Wake Forest

40-28

42-27

DUKE

Army

35-26

31-21

CONNECTICUT

Buffalo

28-13

30-14

Georgia

MISSISSIPPI STATE

24-22

24-20

Fresno State

OLE MISS

30-24

31-17

KANSAS

New Mexico State

34-10

30-17

MISSOURI

Miami-Ohio

34-17

34-17

Air Force

WYOMING

35-21

31-21

KANSAS STATE

Central Florida

20-14

20-16

HOUSTON

Tulane

43-20

54-13

Oklahoma

CINCINNATI (P.Brown Sta)

30-17

38-16

Alabama

ARKANSAS

23-14

28-13

BOISE STATE

Oregon State

37-21

42-21

Stanford

NOTRE DAME

35-24

38-24

ARIZONA

California

35-26

41-31

TEXAS

U c l a

27-7

28-6

Idaho

COLORADO STATE

31-18

33-17

Nevada

B Y U

40-34

45-27

Southern Cal

WASHINGTON STATE

31-7

34-10

FLORIDA

Kentucky

34-17

34-17

Southern Miss

LOUISIANA TECH

34-27

32-24

TENNESSEE

U a b

30-14

30-10

INDIANA

Akron

38-16

41-17

MARSHALL

Ohio U

27-24

27-25

AUBURN

South Carolina

24-24 to ot

23-27

UTAH

San Jose State

37-10

38-12

SAN DIEGO STATE

Utah State

35-30

35-21

L S U

West Virginia

24-12

24-17

Baylor

RICE

35-27

38-20

North Carolina

RUTGERS

24-22

24-14

MINNESOTA

Northern Illinois

29-21

24-25

UTEP

Memphis

31-23

37-24

U N L V

New Mexico

35-27

33-20

Oregon

ARIZONA STATE

35-20

34-14

TROY

Arkansas State

35-23

30-16

Middle Tennessee

UL-LAFAYETTE

28-27

24-28

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

North Texas

31-17

31-16

SOUTH FLORIDA

Western Kentucky

38-12

35-10

MARYLAND

Florida International

27-14

24-17

 

September 13, 2010

PiRate Ratings For College Football: September 16-18, 2010

We are red hot to start the 2010 season.  After starting off week one with a 5-1-1 record, we decided to go with 11 different propositions in week two and finished 8-3.  For the season, our record against the spread stands at 13-4-1 for 76.5%!  Yeah, team.  For those who did not purchase our picks, here is how it went:

 

1. Florida Atlantic + 28 ½ vs. Michigan State                        WON

 

2. Moneyline parlay at even odds: East Carolina, LSU, Boston College, Texas A&M, and Texas all won                                              WON

 

3. 10-point teaser: LSU + ½ vs. Vandy, California +1 vs. Colorado, and Michigan +4 vs. Notre Dame                                                         

WON

 

4. 10-point teaser: Baylor -6 ½ vs. Buffalo, Florida Atlantic +38 ½ vs. Michigan State, and Rice +12 ½ vs. North Texas           

WON

 

5. 10-point teaser: Boston College -7 vs. Kent State, Miami (Fl) +19 vs. Ohio State, and BYU +11 vs. Air Force                             

Lost

 

6. 10-point teaser: Oregon -2 ½ vs. Tennessee, Bowling Green & Tulsa Over 52, and Syracuse +23 ½ vs. Washington                        

WON

 

7. 10-point teaser: Georgia Tech -4 Kansas, Georgia Tech & Kansas Under 60, and East Carolina -2 Memphis                                 

Lost

 

8. 10-point teaser: Detroit + 16 ½ vs. Chicago, New England +5 ½ vs. Cincinnati, and Denver and Jacksonville Over 30             

WON

 

9. 10-point teaser: Indianapolis +8 vs. Houston, Baltimore +2 ½ vs. New York Jets, and San Diego +5 ½ vs. Kansas City              

Lost (already lost on Indy game before the two Monday nighters)

 

10. 13-point teaser: Houston & UTEP Over 57 ½, Wake Forest & Duke Over 36 ½, S. Florida +38 vs. Florida, and Iowa – ½ vs. Iowa St.      

WON

 

11. 13-point teaser: Miami (O) -3 vs. E. Michigan, Texas A&M -6 vs. La. Tech, Alabama +1 ½ vs. Penn St., and S.D. State Pk vs. N. Mex. St. WON

 

We are very happy to see that almost all of you that purchased our picks last week have already done so for this week.  Thank you for your support, and we hope to repeat our performance again.  For those new folks interested in playing with us, go to www.piratings.webs.com to purchase our picks for the week.  Deadline every week is 7PM Eastern Time on Wednesdays.

 

 

The Weekly PiRate Ratings

Requiem for a conference:  Alas poor ACC, I knew it well.  Good bye for your BCS Championship hopes.  In one day, Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech lost and eliminated themselves from the national title picture.

 

The ACC can now struggle with the Big East as both conferences just might be on the precipice of dropping below the Mountain West Conference. 

 

After two weeks, the once given up for dead Big 12 is looking particularly strong.  In the South, all six teams are 2-0.  Missouri, Nebraska, and Kansas State are 2-0.  No other league has nine 2-0 teams.

 

We do not discount Boise State’s win over Virginia Tech because of the Hokies’ loss to James Madison.  BSU won on the road (virtually a road game) 2,000 miles away from home against a top 10 team.  The Hokies were too flat Saturday and shot themselves in the foot.  We expect VT to catch fire now and play Beamer Ball to the max. 

 

As for the top two teams, Oregon and Alabama proved their worth Saturday.  The Tide looked more like a Bear Bryant team from the 1960’s than last year’s title team.  No Mark Ingram—No problem!  The Tide’s second 22 might be a top 20 team.

 

The Ducks may have been shaken by a one hour thunderstorm delay.  They played a bit lethargically for 25 minutes, and then BOOM.  Oregon ripped off 45 consecutive points about as quickly as they did against New Mexico.  Jeremiah who?

 

PiRate NCAA Top 25 for September 14, 2010
Rank Team PiRate Won Lost
1 Oregon 130.1 2 0
2 Alabama 127.2 2 0
3 Oklahoma 126.6 2 0
4 Ohio State 125.7 2 0
5 Arkansas 124.7 2 0
6 T C U 124.4 2 0
7 South Carolina 122.8 2 0
8 Boise State 122.3 1 0
9 Iowa 121.1 2 0
10 Stanford 120.5 2 0
11 Miami (Fla) 120.5 1 1
12 Nebraska 120.3 2 0
13 Florida 119.9 2 0
14 North Carolina 119.5 0 1
15 Georgia Tech 118.5 1 1
16 Texas 118.4 2 0
17 Virginia Tech 117.7 0 2
18 Auburn 117.6 2 0
19 California 117.0 2 0
20 Arizona 116.8 2 0
21 Florida State 116.7 1 1
22 Texas A&M 116.4 2 0
23 Wisconsin 116.4 2 0
24 L S U 115.9 2 0
25 Georgia 115.9 1 1
         
Note: Ratings rounded to one decimal point
even though I rank them to two decimal points

 

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Florida State 0-0 1-1 116.7
Clemson 0-0 2-0 113.2
Boston College 0-0 2-0 108.3
Wake Forest 1-0 2-0 103.4
North Carolina State 0-0 2-0 98.6
Maryland 0-0 2-0 96.4
       
Coastal Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Miami-FL 0-0 1-1 120.5
North Carolina 0-0 0-1 119.5
Georgia Tech 0-0 1-1 118.5
Virginia Tech 0-0 0-2 117.7
Virginia 0-0 1-1 97.1
Duke 0-1 1-1 95.5

 

Big East Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
West Virginia 0-0 2-0 111.4
Connecticut 0-0 1-1 111.4
Pittsburgh 0-0 1-1 110.0
Cincinnati 0-0 1-1 108.2
South Florida 0-0 1-1 105.7
Syracuse 0-0 1-1 101.3
Rutgers 0-0 2-0 95.3
Louisville 0-0 1-1 93.9

 

Big Ten
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Ohio State 0-0 2-0 125.7
Iowa 0-0 2-0 121.1
Wisconsin 0-0 2-0 116.4
Michigan 0-0 2-0 110.2
Penn State 0-0 1-1 109.6
Michigan State 0-0 2-0 106.5
Illinois 0-0 1-1 99.8
Minnesota 0-0 1-1 98.9
Purdue 0-0 1-1 97.9
Northwestern 0-0 2-0 95.9
Indiana 0-0 1-0 92.0

 

Big 12
North Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Nebraska 0-0 2-0 120.3
Missouri 0-0 2-0 111.8
Colorado 0-0 1-1 103.0
Kansas 0-0 1-1 100.7
Kansas State 0-0 2-0 97.9
Iowa State 0-0 1-1 95.1
       
South Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oklahoma 0-0 2-0 126.6
Texas 0-0 2-0 118.4
Texas A&M 0-0 2-0 116.4
Texas Tech 0-0 2-0 112.5
Baylor 0-0 2-0 103.8
Oklahoma State 0-0 2-0 101.2

 

Conference USA
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Florida 0-0 1-1 94.7
Southern Mississippi 0-0 1-1 91.7
East Carolina 2-0 2-0 91.0
Marshall 0-0 0-2 89.9
U A B 0-1 0-2 87.6
Memphis 0-1 0-2 75.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Houston 1-0 2-0 105.1
S M U 1-0 1-1 94.4
Tulsa 0-1 1-1 92.6
Rice 0-0 1-1 87.0
U T E P 0-1 1-1 81.4
Tulane 0-0 1-1 73.2

 

Independents
       
Team   Overall Rating
Notre Dame   1-1 110.5
Navy   1-1 98.6
Army   1-1 82.8

 

Mid American Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Temple 1-0 2-0 90.8
Miami (O) 1-0 1-1 89.3
Kent St. 0-0 1-1 85.9
Ohio U 0-1 1-1 83.0
Buffalo 0-0 1-1 81.4
Bowling Green 0-0 0-2 78.7
Akron 0-0 0-2 75.5
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Central Michigan 0-1 1-1 89.5
Northern Illinois 0-0 1-1 88.6
Toledo 1-0 1-1 81.4
Ball State 0-0 1-1 79.4
Western Michigan 0-0 1-1 77.7
Eastern Michigan 0-1 0-2 71.8

 

Mountain West Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
T C U 0-0 2-0 124.4
Utah 1-0 2-0 106.0
Air Force 1-0 2-0 104.2
B Y U 0-1 1-1 102.5
Wyoming 0-0 1-1 95.4
S. D. State 0-0 2-0 94.3
UNLV 0-1 0-2 93.2
Colo. State 0-0 0-2 83.3
New Mexico 0-0 0-2 78.4

 

Pac-10 Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Oregon 0-0 2-0 130.1
Stanford 1-0 2-0 120.5
California 0-0 2-0 117.0
Arizona 0-0 2-0 116.8
Washington 0-0 1-1 115.0
Oregon St. 0-0 0-1 113.7
Southern Cal 0-0 2-0 109.3
U C L A 0-1 0-2 105.4
Arizona St. 0-0 2-0 99.0
Wash. St. 0-0 1-1 90.0

 

Southeastern Conference
East Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
South Carolina 1-0 2-0 122.8
Florida 0-0 2-0 119.9
Georgia 0-1 1-1 115.9
Kentucky 0-0 2-0 102.8
Tennessee 0-0 1-1 101.6
Vanderbilt 0-1 0-2 94.9
       
West Division      
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Alabama 0-0 2-0 127.2
Arkansas 0-0 2-0 124.7
Auburn 1-0 2-0 117.6
L S U 1-0 2-0 115.9
Mississippi State 0-1 1-1 111.2
Ole Miss 0-0 1-1 103.8

 

Sunbelt Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Troy 0-0 1-1 87.9
Middle Tennessee 0-0 1-1 87.9
North Texas 0-0 0-2 82.7
U. of Louisiana 1-0 1-1 81.4
Florida Atlantic 0-0 1-1 80.2
Florida International 0-0 0-1 79.7
Arkansas State 0-1 0-2 77.7
Louisiana-Monroe 0-0 0-1 76.3
Western Kentucky 0-0 0-2 72.7

 

Western Athletic Conference
       
Team Conf. Overall Rating
Boise State 0-0 1-0 122.3
Nevada 0-0 2-0 104.8
Fresno State 0-0 1-0 101.1
Utah State 0-0 1-1 98.0
Louisiana Tech 0-0 1-1 94.2
Idaho 0-0 1-1 91.3
Hawaii 0-0 1-1 86.5
San Jose State 0-0 0-2 83.7
New Mexico State 0-0 0-1 77.2

 

 

Caution: Never use the raw PiRate ratings to determine betting options for football games.  They are only a starting point.  We do not use our raw ratings when me make our selections, and neither should you.

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings
Home Team Advantage Added (2-5 points)    
Thursday, September 16      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Cincinnati NORTH CAROLINA ST. 6.6 27-20
       
Friday, September 17      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Kansas SOUTHERN MISS 6.0 34-28
California NEVADA 9.7 34-24
       
Saturday, September 18      
Favorite Underdog Spread Score
Arkansas GEORGIA 5.3 31-26
KENTUCKY Akron 30.3 44-14
Indiana WESTERN KENTUCKY 16.8 34-17
MISSOURI San Diego State 21.5 40-18
OLE MISS Vanderbilt 11.9 21-9
NORTH CAROLINA Georgia Tech 4.0 28-24
OHIO STATE Ohio U 45.2 48-3
OKLAHOMA STATE Tulsa 11.1 38-27
PENN STATE Kent State 27.2 34-7
Connecticut TEMPLE 18.1 28-10
Northwestern RICE 5.9 34-28
WEST VIRGINIA Maryland 18.0 35-17
ILLINOIS Northern Illinois 13.7 31-17
ARKANSAS STATE La.-Monroe 3.9 31-27
Kansas State (at KC) Iowa State 4.8 27-22
PURDUE Ball State 21.0 35-14
ARMY North Texas 3.6 24-20
VIRGINIA TECH East Carolina 30.2 44-14
COLORADO Hawaii 20.0 41-21
FLORIDA STATE B y u 17.7 38-20
Southern Cal MINNESOTA 6.9 20-13
Alabama DUKE 29.2 35-6
MIAMI (O) Colorado State 9.5 31-21
OKLAHOMA Air Force 25.4 42-17
Nebraska WASHINGTON 1.8 19-17
WISCONSIN Arizona State 20.9 38-17
Florida TENNESSEE 14.8 28-13
S M U Washington State 7.4 34-27
U A B Troy 2.2 30-28
Central Michigan EASTERN MICHIGAN 15.2 35-20
T C U Baylor 23.6 34-10
OREGON STATE Louisville 24.3 38-14
AUBURN Clemson 7.4 34-27
Marshall BOWLING GREEN 8.7 30-21
Middle Tennessee MEMPHIS 9.5 45-35
TEXAS A&M Florida Int’l 40.2 52-12
Central Florida BUFFALO 9.8 27-17
Toledo WESTERN MICHIGAN 1.2 28-27
Navy LOUISIANA TECH 0.9 24-23
L S U Mississippi State 7.7 31-23
Fresno State UTAH STATE 0.6 31-30
Texas TEXAS TECH 2.9 31-28
Utah NEW MEXICO 24.6 28-3
Boise State WYOMING 23.9 34-10
U T E P New Mexico State 6.7 34-27
Iowa ARIZONA 0.8 17-16
U C L A Houston 3.8 38-34
IDAHO U n l v 1.1 31-30
STANFORD Wake Forest 21.1 38-17

 

 

This Week’s Games–Mean & Biased Ratings
       
Thursday, September 16      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
NORTH CAROLINA ST. Cincinnati 26-24 21-17
       
Friday, September 17      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
Kansas SOUTHERN MISS 28-27 17-27
California NEVADA 34-31 44-24
       
Saturday, September 18      
Favorite Underdog Mean Biased
GEORGIA Arkansas 24-22 28-24
KENTUCKY Akron 42-13 41-14
Indiana WESTERN KENTUCKY 35-24 31-20
MISSOURI San Diego State 35-17 35-17
OLE MISS Vanderbilt 19-7 20-7
NORTH CAROLINA Georgia Tech 28-24 31-27
OHIO STATE Ohio U 40-7 54-7
OKLAHOMA STATE Tulsa 45-33 45-35
PENN STATE Kent State 31-7 28-6
Connecticut TEMPLE 24-24 to ot 27-17
Northwestern RICE 34-24 27-20
WEST VIRGINIA Maryland 31-23 28-23
ILLINOIS Northern Illinois 31-20 30-18
ARKANSAS STATE La.-Monroe 30-30 to ot 34-27
Kansas State (at KC) Iowa State 26-21 24-19
PURDUE Ball State 31-17 35-14
ARMY North Texas 27-21 24-31
VIRGINIA TECH East Carolina 33-20 35-24
COLORADO Hawaii 31-24 31-26
FLORIDA STATE B y u 34-32 33-21
Southern Cal MINNESOTA 21-10 21-12
Alabama DUKE 35-10 44-13
MIAMI (O) Colorado State 30-24 32-24
OKLAHOMA Air Force 31-21 41-17
Nebraska WASHINGTON 26-20 27-14
WISCONSIN Arizona State 34-24 28-17
Florida TENNESSEE 28-14 27-14
S M U Washington State 34-14 44-20
Troy U A B 31-23 38-26
Central Michigan EASTERN MICHIGAN 34-17 24-17
T C U Baylor 34-14 30-16
OREGON STATE Louisville 30-10 35-14
AUBURN Clemson 33-28 31-24
BOWLING GREEN Marshall 28-26 26-30
Middle Tennessee MEMPHIS 42-34 38-34
TEXAS A&M Florida Int’l 42-17 40-17
Central Florida BUFFALO 24-19 24-20
WESTERN MICHIGAN Toledo 28-25 27-21
Navy LOUISIANA TECH 24-20 20-24
L S U Mississippi State 31-20 19-17
Fresno State UTAH STATE 35-30 28-20
Texas TEXAS TECH 28-26 24-20
Utah NEW MEXICO 40-14 37-14
Boise State WYOMING 35-13 41-17
U T E P New Mexico State 35-22 38-28
ARIZONA Iowa 24-23 24-21
Houston U C L A 35-28 42-31
IDAHO U n l v 41-33 38-30
STANFORD Wake Forest 35-21 42-24

 

September 8, 2010

College Football PiRate Ratings For September 9-11, 2010