The Pi-Rate Ratings

January 6, 2012

2011-12 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Simper Bowl V

Simper Bowl V

The championship round of the PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs was simulated Friday morning, January 6, 2012, and the results and statistics are listed below.

 

For those of you new to this experiment, here is how the PiRates conduct this simulated National Championship playoff:

 

The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC received automatic bids.

 

Any other conference champion that finished in the top 12 of the BCS rankings also receives an automatic bid.

 

After these two rules were applied, at-large invitations were extended to the number of teams needed to complete a 12-team tournament, based on BCS ranking.

 

Our 12-team tournament gave the top four BCS-ranked teams a bye, while teams seeded 5-12 played in the opening round. 

 

The Dandy Dozen For This Season Were:

Automatic Bids

ACC Champion: Clemson 10-3  BCS #15

Big East Champion: West Virginia 9-3   BCS #23

Big Ten Champion: Wisconsin 11-2   BCS # 10

Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma State 11-1   BCS #3

Pac-12 Champion: Oregon 11-2   BCS #5

SEC Champion: L S U 13-0   BCS #1

 

Other Qualifying Conference Champions

No other conference champions finished in the BCS top 12.

 

At-large Bids (6)

BCS #2: Alabama 11-1

BCS #4: Stanford 11-1

BCS #6: Arkansas 10-2

BCS #7: Boise State 11-1

BCS #8: Kansas State 10-2

BCS #9: South Carolina 10-2

 

The Opening Round Results

Kansas State 30  South Carolina 20

Oregon 41  West Virginia 17

Wisconsin 38  Boise State 26

Clemson 50  Arkansas 44 3ot

 

The Elite 8 Results

L S U  44  Kansas State  16

Oregon 38  Stanford 27

Wisconsin 24  Alabama 19

Oklahoma State 44  Clemson 20

 

The Final Four Results

Oregon 39  L S U 34

Wisconsin 41  Oklahoma State 38

 

Simper Bowl Facts

The Oregon Ducks and Wisconsin Badgers actually played in this year’s Rose Bowl, and the Simper Bowl takes place in the same vicinity at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.  This marked the second time in Simper Bowl history that the computer simulated National Championship Game featured teams that actually squared off in a bowl.

 

We went ahead and simulated this game 100 times after we simulated it the one time to represent the Simper Bowl.  The winner of the Simper Bowl only won 37 of the 100 simulations performed after the Simper Bowl, so we would call the winner of this game an upset.

 

And, the 2011-12 Simper Bowl Champions Are: THE OREGON DUCKS!

 

Congratulations to the Ducks, as they defeated Wisconsin 38-30 in the lone simulation prior to the 100 sims performed afterwards.  Wisconsin won 63 of the 100 simulations performed after we recorded the results of the Simper Bowl.

 

Here are the Simper Bowl Stats:

 

Ore

Team

Wis

 

 

 

20

FD

23

 

 

 

35-206

Rush

41-209

 

 

 

271

Passing

257

 

 

 

17-29-0

Passes

22-33-1

 

 

 

64

Plays

74

 

 

 

477

Tot Yds

466

 

 

 

4-92

KR

6-132

 

 

 

2-19

PR

1-0

 

 

 

1-13

Int Ret

0-0

 

 

 

1-0

Fum-Lst

2-1

 

 

 

6-47

Pen

8-58

 

 

 

2-43.5

Punt

3-46.7

 

 

 

27:12

Time

32:48

 

 

 

1-6

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

Final

Ore

10

14

7

7

38

Wis

3

10

10

7

30

Rushing Leaders

Oregon: James 21-135 and 2 touchdowns
Wisconsin: Ball 25-143 and one touchdown
 

Passing Leaders

Oregon: Thomas 17-29-0 271 yards and 2 touchdowns
Wisconsin: Wilson 22-33-1 257 yards and one touchdown
 

Receiving Leader

Oregon: Tuinei 6-118 and one touchdown
Wisconsin: White 3-90 and one touchdown

 

On Monday morning, January 9, 2012, we will reveal the results of 100 simulations of the BCS’s mythical national title game between L S U and Alabama.

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January 4, 2011

The PiRate Ratings’ NFL Playoffs Edition–Wildcard Round

For each playoff game, we show the PiRate, Mean, and Biased rating spreads.  Then, we reveal the results of the 100 simulations.  And, just for you, we will reveal the vote of the five of us in picking each game against the spread as well as the total.

We have access to a computer simulator that allows us to rapidly simulate games 100 times.  We can simulate games based on certain statistical data, strength of schedule, and linear regression. 

Saturday, January 8, 2011

 4:30 PM EST on NBC-TV

New Orleans Saints  (11-5-0)  at Seattle Seahawks (7-9-0)

Vegas:        NO by 10 ½

Totals:       44 ½

PiRate:       NO by 9.3

Mean:         NO by 6.5

Bias:           NO by 4.9

100 Simulations:         NO 84  SEA 16

Avg. Sim Score             NO 32.7  SEA 16.8

Outlier A:                     NO 41  SEA 14

Outlier B:                     SEA 24  NO 19 (three others of 5 pts.)

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   SEA—3        NO—2

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    UND—4       OVR—1

 

8:00 PM EST on NBC-TV

New York Jets (11-5-0) at Indianapolis Colts (10-6-0) 

Vegas:        IND by 2 ½

Totals:       44 ½

 

PiRate:       IND by 0.6

Mean:         IND by 0.7

Bias:           IND by 0.3 

100 Simulations:         NYJ 57  IND 43

Avg. Sim Score             NYJ 22.8  IND 20.1

Outlier A:                     NYJ 27  IND 7

Outlier B:                     IND 30  NYJ 13

 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   NYJ—3        IND—2

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    OVR—3       UND—2      

 

Sunday, January 9, 2011

1:00 PM EST on CBS-TV

Baltimore Ravens (12-4-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6-0)

Vegas:        BAL by 2 ½

Totals:       41 

PiRate:       BAL by 2.3

Mean:         BAL by 2.6

Bias:           KC by 0.2 

100 Simulations:         BAL 52  KC 48

Avg. Sim Score             BAL 21.8  KC 20.7

Outlier A:                     BAL 35  KC 13

Outlier B:                     KC 27  BAL 10

 

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   KC—4           BAL—1       

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    OVR—3       UND—2      

 

 4:30 PM EST on FOX-TV

Green Bay Packers (10-6-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6-0)

Vegas:        PHI by 2 ½

Totals:       46 ½  

PiRate:       GB by 3.5

Mean:         GB by 4.6

Bias:           GB by 1.1 

100 Simulations:         GB 67  PHI 33

Avg. Sim Score             GB 34.1  PHI 26.7

Outlier A:                     GB 41  PHI 16

Outlier B:                     PHI 33  GB 14

5 PiRates Pick vs. Spread:   GB—5            PHI—0       

5 PiRates Pick vs. Totals:    OVR—4       UND—1      

 

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