The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 21, 2012

2012-13 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Semifinal Round

The Road To Simper Bowl VI

The first two rounds of the 2012-13 PiRate Simulated College Football Playoffs are in the books.  The number 5-12 seeds squared off in the opening round with the top four seeds receiving byes.  The quarterfinal round was played last week, and we are down to the Final Four.

 

To see the first round results, go to: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/12/07/2012-13-ncaa-simulated-football-playoffs-round-one/

 

To see the second round results, go to:

https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/12/14/2012-13-ncaa-simulated-football-playoffs-quarterfinal-round/

 

The semifinal round was simulated earlier this morning. 

 

The Pairings

 

(5) Oregon 13-1  at  (1) Notre Dame 13-0

(3) Ohio State 13-0  at  (2) Alabama 13-1

 

Note: Ohio State was awarded the Big Ten’s automatic bid per PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated Rules.  To see how this works, go to: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/12/03/2012-13-ncaa-simulated-football-playoffs-bracket-reveal/

 

The Results

Oregon 29  Notre Dame 23

 

ND

Team

Ore

23

Score

29

18

First Downs

18

42

Rush Attempts

48

151

Rush Yards

211

16

Pass Completions

18

29

Pass Attempts

26

182

Pass Yards

196

2

Intercepted

1

6-43.2

Punt Average

4-44.0

1-6

Punt Returns

3-19

3-58

Kick Returns

5-119

4-25

Penalties

9-67

1-0

Fumbles/Lost

1-1

2-11

Def: Sack-Yds

3-17

71

Plays

74

333

Total Yards

407

 

 

Alabama 19  Ohio State 16  (2 overtimes)

 

Ala

Team

OSU

19

Score

16

18

First Downs

16

55

Rush Attempts

43

215

Rush Yards

184

14

Pass Completions

16

24

Pass Attempts

29

176

Pass Yards

153

0

Intercepted

1

8-41.4

Punt Average

9-43.0

4-34

Punt Returns

2-5

2-38

Kick Returns

2-37

7-57

Penalties

8-62

1-1

Fumbles/Lost

2-1

3-19

Def: Sack-Yds

1-7

79

Plays

72

391

Total Yards

337

 

Simper Bowl VI is now set.  #2 Seed Alabama (14-1) takes on #5 Seed Oregon (14-1) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, next Friday, December 28, 2012.

 

Oregon is the defending Simper Bowl Champions.  Only one other team has won back-to-back Simper Bowls.  Southern California won the first two Simper Bowls in the 2007 and 2008 seasons.

 

Oddly, Alabama has not won a Simper Bowl.

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December 14, 2012

2012-13 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Quarterfinal Round

The Road To Simper Bowl VI

The Opening Round of the 2012-13 PiRate Simulated College Football Playoffs is in the books.  The number 5-12 seeds squared off with the top four seeds receiving byes.

 

To see the first round results, go to: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/12/07/2012-13-ncaa-simulated-football-playoffs-round-one/

 

Today’s results were accidentally erased, and the entire round had to be re-simulated.  The same four teams won the second simulations, so no real damage was done.

 

Here were the four quarterfinal game combatants.

#9 Seed: Stanford (12-2) at #1 Seed: Notre Dame (12-0)

#7 Seed: Georgia (12-2) at #2 Seed: Alabama (12-1)

#6 Seed: Kansas St. (12-1) at #3 Seed: Ohio State (12-0)

#5 Seed: Oregon (12-1) at #4 Seed: Florida (11-1)

 

Here are the results.

 

(1) Notre Dame 19  (9) Stanford 17

 

ND

Team

Stan

19

Score

17

17

First Downs

14

38

Rush Attempts

42

131

Rush Yards

151

16

Pass Completions

14

27

Pass Attempts

31

178

Pass Yards

201

1

Intercepted

3

7-41.6

Punt Average

5-42.4

2-13

Punt Returns

4-34

3-89

Kick Returns

2-41

5-35

Penalties

6-42

1-0

Fumbles/Lost

3-1

3-17

Def: Sack-Yds

1-5

65

Plays

73

309

Total Yards

352

 

 

(2) Alabama 24  (7) Georgia 16

 

Ala

Team

Ga

24

Score

16

23

First Downs

14

49

Rush Attempts

31

216

Rush Yards

74

11

Pass Completions

22

18

Pass Attempts

41

142

Pass Yards

288

0

Intercepted

3

6-39.7

Punt Average

6-44.0

2-37

Punt Returns

3-6

2-39

Kick Returns

3-52

6-39

Penalties

7-52

1-0

Fumbles/Lost

1-0

3-19

Def: Sack-Yds

1-4

67

Plays

72

358

Total Yards

362

 

 

(3) Ohio State 30  (6) Kansas State 20

 

OSU

Team

KSU

30

Score

20

25

First Downs

16

56

Rush Attempts

34

302

Rush Yards

105

11

Pass Completions

15

18

Pass Attempts

27

131

Pass Yards

143

0

Intercepted

2

3-41.3

Punt Average

6-42.5

3-50

Punt Returns

1-1

3-67

Kick Returns

4-86

2-15

Penalties

7-52

2-2

Fumbles/Lost

1-1

2-11

Def: Sack-Yds

0-0

74

Plays

61

433

Total Yards

248

 

 

(5) Oregon 34  (4) Florida 20

 

Fla

Team

Ore

20

Score

34

18

First Downs

26

41

Rush Attempts

54

139

Rush Yards

302

18

Pass Completions

16

32

Pass Attempts

27

171

Pass Yards

201

1

Intercepted

2

6-45.3

Punt Average

2-42.5

0-0

Punt Returns

3-28

5-112

Kick Returns

2-49

5-33

Penalties

7-54

1-0

Fumbles/Lost

0-0

0-0

Def: Sack-Yds

2-13

73

Plays

81

310

Total Yards

503

 

 

The Final Four is now set.  The semifinal round will be simulated next Friday, December 21.  Here are the pairings.

 

(5) Oregon 13-1  at  (1) Notre Dame 13-0

(3) Ohio State 13-0  at  (2) Alabama 13-1

 

Note: Ohio State was awarded the Big Ten’s automatic bid per PiRate Ratings Computer Simulated Rules.  To see how this works, go to: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2012/12/03/2012-13-ncaa-simulated-football-playoffs-bracket-reveal/

 

See you next Friday with the semifinals.  The final round will be simulated on Friday, December 28.

December 7, 2012

2012-13 NCAA Simulated Football Playoffs–Round One

The Road To Simper Bowl VI

The Opening Round of the 2012-13 PiRate Simulated College Football Playoffs is in the books.  The number 5-12 seeds squared off with the top four seeds receiving byes.

 

Without further adieu, let’s reveal the results.

 

#12 Seed: Louisville (10-2) at #5 Seed: Oregon (11-1)

Oregon 45  Louisville 17

 

Oregon

Team

Louisville

45

Score

17

23

First Downs

18

42

Rush Attempts

37

223

Rush Yards

104

18

Pass Completions

18

29

Pass Attempts

32

209

Pass Yards

191

0

Intercepted

1

3-43.7

Punt Average

6-41.5

2-41

Punt Returns

0-0

4-92

Kick Returns

5-93

5-40

Penalties

7-57

0-0

Fumbles/Lost

2-0

2-11

Def: Sack-Yds

0-0

71

Plays

69

432

Total Yards

295

 

#11 Seed: Florida State (11-2) at #6 Seed: Kansas State (11-1)

Kansas State 27  Florida State 16

 

Kansas St.

Team

Florida St.

27

Score

16

18

First Downs

17

47

Rush Attempts

34

202

Rush Yards

119

10

Pass Completions

22

22

Pass Attempts

38

147

Pass Yards

236

1

Intercepted

2

5-43.4

Punt Average

5-39.8

1-(-3)

Punt Returns

3-14

3-61

Kick Returns

2-38

6-55

Penalties

7-46

1-0

Fumbles/Lost

1-1

2-13

Def: Sack-Yds

0-0

69

Plays

72

349

Total Yards

355

 

 

#10 Seed: Texas A&M (10-2) at #7 Seed: Georgia (11-2)

Georgia 33  Texas A&M 31

 

Georgia

Team

Texas A&M

33

Score

31

22

First Downs

23

36

Rush Attempts

41

137

Rush Yards

180

20

Pass Completions

29

34

Pass Attempts

45

242

Pass Yards

313

1

Intercepted

1

3-41.3

Punt Average

2-45.0

0-0

Punt Returns

0-0

6-199

Kick Returns

1-21

5-35

Penalties

8-72

0-0

Fumbles/Lost

1-1

1-12

Def: Sack-Yds

2-11

70

Plays

86

379

Total Yards

493

 

#9 Seed: Stanford (11-2) at #8 Seed LSU (10-2)

Stanford 28  LSU 20

 

L S U

Team

Stanford

20

Score

28

16

First Downs

20

42

Rush Attempts

39

151

Rush Yards

172

16

Pass Completions

17

29

Pass Attempts

28

156

Pass Yards

183

2

Intercepted

0

6-45.7

Punt Average

5-41.6

2-6

Punt Returns

3-37

3-59

Kick Returns

2-47

6-50

Penalties

8-56

2-1

Fumbles/Lost

1-0

1-7

Def: Sack-Yds

2-15

71

Plays

67

307

Total Yards

355

 

Round Two is now set.  Our Elite Eight Games Include:

 

#9 Seed: Stanford (12-2) at #1 Seed: Notre Dame (12-0)

#7 Seed: Georgia (12-2) at #2 Seed: Alabama (12-1)

#6 Seed: Kansas St. (12-1) at #3 Seed: Ohio State (12-0)

#5 Seed: Oregon (12-1) at #4 Seed: Florida (11-1)

 

These games will be simulated and revealed next Friday, December 14, 2012 before 4 PM Eastern Standard Time.

January 3, 2011

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation–The Simper Bowl

SIMPER BOWL IV

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation College Football National Championship Game

 

You are looking live at the 2010-11 College Football National Championship Game from Glendale, Arizona.  It’s Simper Bowl IV, and you can feel the excitement in the air.

 

Three weeks ago, 12 teams began their quest to get here today.  Two are left: the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Wisconsin Badgers meet for the second time this season.  These two squared off at Camp Randall Stadium in October with Wisconsin winning 31-18. 

 

If you want to see how these two teams got to Glendale, look at the blog entries for the previous three Mondays.  If you read last week’s entry, it explains how we simulated this big game today.

 

This simulation precludes any actions these two teams actually made during the bowl season.  Only the regular season results were figured in this computation, so if any players were injured during the bowl games, these are not figured into today’s game.  It is as if the bowls never happened.

 

It’s a beautiful evening here in Glendale, Arizona, tonight.  It is clear, and mild with a temperature of 61 degrees.  There is no wind to speak of, and the roof is open tonight.

 

The referee is on the field with the team captains.  Let’s go to our sideline reporter for the coin toss.

 

Gentlemen, this is the Simpler Bowl Official coin.  On this side of the coin is a Buckeye, and on this side of the coin is a Badger.  I will flip the coin, and whichever side it lands on wins the toss.

 

The flip shows that Ohio State has won the toss.  What do you want to do?

 

We want to defer to the second half.

 

Okay, Wisconsin, it’s your choice.  Do you want to receive or pick a side.

 

We want the ball.

 

Ohio State, pick the side you wish to defend.

 

Ohio State has won the toss and deferred to the second half.  Wisconsin will receive and defend this side.

 

Okay, we’re ready for the opening kickoff.

 

1st Quarter

Devin Barclay kicks off for Ohio State, and Jared Abbrederis hauls in the kick at the three.  He moves to the right and crosses the 25 yard line to the 28 for a 25-yard return.

 

Wisconsin Ball

1st & 10 at W28

 Scott Tolzien takes the snap and hands the ball to Montee Ball going up the middle to the left.  He crosses the 30 to the 32 yard line where he is met by Andrew Sweat.  Gain of four.

 

2nd & 6 at W32

Tolzien gives to Ball going off left tackle.  Ball cannot break through the line and is stopped for no gain by a swarm of Buckeyes.

 

3rd & 6 at W32

Tolzien drops to pass.  He throws to the right hook to tight end Lance Kendricks.  The pass is complete for 12 yards and a first down.  Tackle made by Orhian Johnson.

 

1st & 10 at W44

Tolzien fakes to Ball and gives to Nick Toon on the reverse.  Toon has room to run. He crosses midfield.  He goes down the sideline and is knocked out of bounds after picking up 21 yards and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O35

Tolzien hands to Ball going up the middle on a quick opener.  Ball picks up three yards before being knocked down by Brian Rolle.

 

2nd & 7 at O32

Tolzien fakes to Ball and drops back to pass, but he is sacked for a six yard loss by Nathan Williams.

 

3rd & 13 at O38

Tolzien drops back to pass.  He spots Isaac Anderson open on the sideline, but Anderson cannot hold onto the ball after being defended by Johnson.

 

4th & 13 at O38

Wisconsin takes a delay of game penalty of five yards.

 

4th & 18 at O43

Brad Nortman is in to punt.  He delivers a high-arching punt that is going to be fair caught by Jordan Hall at the nine yard line.  Punt of 34 yards with no return.

 

Ohio State Ball

1st & 10 at O9

Terrelle Pryor fakes to Dan Herron and keeps the ball going to the right.  He cannot get to the corner and is brought down for a one yard loss.  Tackle by Culmer St. Jean.

 

2nd & 11 at O8

Pryor hands to Herron going off left tackle.  Herron crosses the 10 to the 12 yard line for a gain of four yards.

 

3rd & 7 at O12

Pryor rolls out to the right and looks to pass.  He cannot spot an open receiver, and he runs.  He crosses the 15 to the 18 yard line, where he is going to be short of the first down.

 

4th & 1 at O18

Ben Buchanan is in to punt for the Buckeyes.  He gets off a rocket.  The ball travels 62 yards to the Wisconsin 20.  David Gilreth picks up the ball and tries to run to his left.  He breaks a tackle and has some open space.  He is to the 30, the 40, to midfield before he is brought down at the Ohio State 47.  Hold on.  There is a flag back at the Wisconsin 26.  The referee signals that the Badgers are guilty of an illegal block in the back.  That moves the ball back to the Wisconsin 16.

 

Wisconsin Ball

1st & 10 at W16

Tolzien bobbles the snap.  He picks it up and runs back to the line of scrimmage for no gain.

 

2nd & 10 at W16

Tolzien drops back to pass and gives to James White on the draw.  White has some room to run up the middle.  He crosses the 20 to the 24 for a gain of eight yards.

 

3rd & 2 at W24

Tolzien gives to John Clay going up the middle.  He is brought down at the 26 by Ross Homan.  The referee has called for a measurement.  Here comes the chains.  “First Down!”

 

1st & 10 at W26

Tolzien fakes to White and drops back.  Nick Toon is open in the deep middle.  The pass is complete to Toon for 21 yards and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W47

Tolzien gives to White going to the right.  He cannot make it to the corner and turns upfield where he is met by Homan at the line of scrimmage for no gain.

 

2nd & 10 at W47

Tolzien drops back to pass and cannot find an open receiver.  He scrambles to the left and spots White open just across the line of scrimmage.  The pass is complete for five yards.

 

3rd & 5 at O48

Tolzien drops back to pass and fires quickly to Kendricks, but the pass is off target.

 

4th & 5 at O48.

Nortman is in to punt.  Here is the kick.  It does not turn over, and Hall hauls it in at the 13.  He moves to the left and gets three yards on the return.

 

Ohio State Ball

1st & 10 at O16

There is movement in the line.  False start on Ohio State.

 

1st & 15 at O11

Pryor gives to Herron going to the left.  Herron crosses the 15 to the 17, where he is met by Blake Sorensen.

 

2nd & 9 at O17

Pryor fakes to Herron and drops back to pass.  He has no time and is going to go down hard after being sacked by J. J. Watt for a loss of seven.  Pryor is slow to get up.

 

3rd & 16 at O10

Ohio State is forced to take a time out as Pryor is hurting.

 

Time is back in, and Pryor gives to Herron on a delay.  Nobody is fooled, and Herron goes down after picking up four yards.

 

4th & 12 at O14

Buchanan is in to punt.  Here’s the kick.  It travels 41 yard to the Wisconsin 45.  Gilreth makes a fair catch.

 

Wisconsin Ball

1st & 10 at W45

Tolzien hands off to Ball going up the middle.  Ball gets to midfield before being met by Rolle and Sweat.  That is the final play of the first quarter.

 

End of 1st Quarter

Ohio State 0  Wisconsin 0

 

2nd Quarter

Wisconsin Ball

2nd & 5 at 50

Tolzien rolls out to his left and pulls up.  He passes down the sideline to Abbrederis who catches the pass for 12 yards and a first down.  Devon Torrence makes the stop.

 

1st & 10 at O38

Tolzien fakes to Ball and drops back to pass.  He is looking deep and has a man open.  He fires to Toon, and Toon makes the diving catch at the Ohio State 11 yard line.  Gain of 27 yards and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O11

Tolzien hands to Ball, and Ball is met at the line by a host of Buckeyes for no gain.  There is a flag on the play.  Wisconsin is guilty of an illegal formation—not enough men on the line.  Ohio State takes the penalty.

 

1st & 15 at O16

Tolzien drops back and gives to Ball on a delay.  He breaks a tackle and crosses the 10 to the seven yard line and a gain of nine.

 

2nd & 6 at O7

Tolzien hands to Ball going to his left.  He dives forward across the five to the three and a gain of four.

 

3rd & 2 at O3

Ohio State jumps offsides, so Wisconsin has a free play.  Tolzien rolls out to his right.  He pulls the ball down.  He sprints to the sideline and crosses the goal for a TOUCHDOWN.  Wisconsin declines the penalty.

 

PAT

Phillip Welch boots the ball through the uprights. 

 

WISCONSIN 7  OHIO STATE 0

 

Kickoff

Welch’s kick bounced into the end zone and goes through for a touchback.

 

Ohio State Ball

1st & 10 at O20

Pryor fakes to Brandon Saine and keeps the ball for a four yard gain to the left.  Antonio Fenelus makes the stop.

 

2nd & 6 at O25

Pryor gives to Saine going wide to the right.  Saine turns the corner and picks up a block.  He crosses the 30 to the 33 for an eight yard gain and a first down.  Aaron Henry makes the stop.

 

1st & 10 at O33

Pryor gives to Herron going up the middle.  He crosses the 35 to the 37 for a gain of four.  Sorenson makes the stop.

 

2nd & 6 at O37

Pryor fakes to Herron and drops back to pass.  Here comes the pass rush.  Pryor escapes the first tackle and rolls to his right.  He gets outside and throws the ball away.

 

3rd & 6 at O37

Pryor drops back to pass and runs the draw up the middle.  He breaks a tackle and crosses the 40 to the 45 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O45

Pryor fakes to Herron and keeps to the left.  He is met by a swarm of defenders and loses one yard.

 

2nd & 11 at O44

Pryor drops back to pass and fires across the middle to Jake Stoneburner for a gain of seven yards.  Mike Taylor makes the tackle.

 

3rd & 4 at W49

Pryor sprints to his right and looks to pass.  He pulls the ball down and runs for the sideline.  He crosses the spot for a first down and goes out of bounds at the 42.  There is a late hit out of bounds, moving the ball another 15 yards.

 

1st & 10 at W27

Pryor fakes to Herron and looks to the corner of the end zone.  His pass is on target to Devier Posey, but at the last second, it is batted away by Antonio Fenelus and is incomplete.

 

2nd & 10 at W27

Pryor gives to Herron running to his left.  He crosses the 25 to the 22 for a gain of five.

 

3rd & 5 at W22

Pryor takes a quick drop and throws quickly to Dane Sanzenbacher.  Sanzenbacher makes the catch but cannot pick up the first down on a gain of four.

 

4th & 1 at W18

Ohio State is going for the first down.  Pryor is under center, and he runs the quarterback sneak for a yard and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W17

Pryor hands the ball to Saine who runs off right tackle.  He crosses the 15 to the 13 and a gain of four.

 

2nd & 6 at W13

Pryor fakes to Saine and sprints left.  He pushes a pass over the outstretched hands of Niles Brinkley, and it is caught by Posey for a seven yard pickup and a first down.

 

1st & G at W6

Pryor hands to Herron going off left tackle.  He has a hole and he waltzes in for the touchdown, but there is a flag down on the play.  The score will not count.  Ohio State is guilty of a hold.

 

1st & G at W16

Pryor rolls to his right and looks back across the middle.  He fires to Stoneburner, but the ball is off target and incomplete.

 

2nd & G at W16

Pryor fakes to Herron and keeps to the left.  He gets by the first wave and crosses the 15 and the 10 before being knocked out of bounds by Aaron Henry at the eight.

 

 3rd & G at W8

Pryor throws a quick look-in pass to Sanzenbacher that is complete.  Sanzenbacher dives forward to the goal but he comes up a bit short.  Ohio State has the ball just shy of the Wisconsin goal.

 

4th & G at W1

Ohio State is going for it.  Pryor under center.  He sneaks in for the TOUCHDOWN.

 

PAT

Barclay’s point after is good to cap an 18-play, 80-yard drive.

 

OHIO STATE 7  WISCONSIN 7

 

Kickoff

Barclay’s kick is short but high.  Gilreth hauls it in at the nine and goes straight up the middle.  He crosses the 15 to the 20 and goes down at the 23.

 

Wisconsin Ball

1st & 10 at W23

Tolzien fakes to White and drops back to pass.  He has to scramble and runs to his right for a two yard gain.

 

2nd & 8 at W25

Tolzien gives to White going to the left of center.  White picks up three yards.

 

3rd & 5 at W28

Tolzien drops back to pass.  He looks short to Kendricks, but he is covered.  Tolzien takes a sack back at the 20, as Homan comes in on a delayed blitz.

 

4th & 13 at W20

Nortman set to punt.  It is high and long.  Hall retreats and fields it at the Ohio State 32.  Hall has a little room to his right, and he returns the punt to the 39.

 

Ohio State Ball

1st & 10 at O32

Pryor drops back to pass and fires down the left sideline.  Posey makes a circus catch just short of midfield for a gain of 16 and a first down. 

 

1st & 10 at O48

Pryor fakes to Saine and keeps the ball around right tackle.  He crosses midfield for a gain of five.

 

2nd & 5 at W47

Pryor gives to Saine going up the middle.  He breaks a tackle and goes down at the 42 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W42

Pryor rolls to his right, looking deep downfield to Sanzenbacher.  Now, he decides to run, and he crosses the 40 to the 37 before being knocked out of bounds by Taylor.

 

2nd & 5 at W37

Pryor fumbles the snap and falls on the ball for a loss of three yards.  Ohio State calls timeout.  That is their first of the half.  There is 2:16 remaining until halftime.

 

3rd & 8 at W40

Pryor runs the QB draw.  He crosses the 35 but is tackled short of the first down by Valai on a gain of six.

 

4th & 2 at W34

Ohio State chooses to go for the first down.  Pryor is under center.  He gives to Herron on a blast off left guard.  Herron’s second effort gets the first down at the 32.

 

1st & 10 at W32

Pryor drops back to pass and has a man open over the middle.  He fires to Saine coming out of the backfield, and the pass is complete.  Saine runs across the 25 to the 23.  Ohio State calls its second timeout of the half.  There is 0:51 remaining until halftime.

 

2nd & 1 at W23

Pryor runs to the right and gets the first down, but he is brought down by St. Jean before he can get out of bounds at the 20.  First Down.

 

1st & 10 at W20

Pryor spikes the ball to stop the clock at 0:43

 

2nd & 10 at W20

Pryor drops back to pass, and he cannot find an open receiver.  He runs to his right and takes a coverage sack at the 22 as he goes out of bounds.

 

3rd & 12 at W22

Pryor gives to Herron on a draw play.  Herron crosses the 20 to the 16.  Ohio State chooses to let the clock run down to 0:03 and takes its final timeout.

 

4th & 6 at W16

Barclay enters the game to attempt a 33-yard field goal.  The snap is good; the ball is placed down, and the kick is GOOD.  The clock expires for halftime.

 

OHIO STATE 10  WISCONSIN 7

 

Third Quarter

Wisconsin will kick off to start the second half.  Welch runs into the ball and kicks a beauty.  The ball bounces in the end zone for a touchback.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at O20

Pryor fakes to Herron and tosses quick to Zach Boren.  The pass is complete and Boren is wide open.  He crosses the 25 to the 33 and has a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O33

Pryor gives to Herron.  Herron has a hole.  He crosses the 40 to the 41 for eight yards.

 

2nd & 2 at O41

Pryor fakes right to Herron and keeps to the left.  He crosses the 45 and midfield for a gain of 11 and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W48

Pryor gives to Saine up the middle. Saine has nowhere to  run and gets back to the line of scrimmage where Watt brings him down.

 

2nd & 10 at W48

Pryor drops back and throws wide to Sanzenbacher.  The pass is off the mark and incomplete.

 

3rd & 10 at W48

Pryor drops back to pass, but Wisconsin blitzes.  Pryor runs and cannot get to the corner.  He gains one yard.

 

4th & 9 at W47

Buchanan punts, and Gilreth calls for a fair catch at the 11 yard line.

 

Wisconsin Possession

1st & 10 at W11

Wisconsin is guilty of a false start.

 

1st & 15 at W6

Tolzien gives to Clay going up the middle.  He gets to the 10 yard line and is met by a host of Buckeyes, led by Rolle.

 

2nd & 11 at W10

Tolzien drops to pass and throws to Kendricks.  The pass is incomplete.  Wisconsin is guilty of holding.  Ohio State declines the penalty.

 

3rd & 11 at W10

Tolzien drops to pass, but here comes the Buckeye blitz.  Tolzien has nowhere to go, and he is dropped back at the three by Cameron Heyward.

 

4th & 18 at W3

Nortman set to punt.  It is a low line drive and is returnable.  Hall catches it at the Wisconsin 44.  He crosses the 40, to the 35, the 30, and is knocked out of bounds at the 28.  There is a flag down on the play.  Ohio State is guilty of a block in the back at the 34.  10 yards from the spot places the ball back at the Wisconsin 44.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at W44

Pryor gives to Herron.  Herron cuts back inside and has some room to run.  He crosses the 40 to the 34 and has a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W34

Pryor drops to pass.  He spots Posey open on the deep sideline.  His pass is complete.  Posey catches it at the 17 and begins to run.  He’s to the 15, the 10, the 5, and Touchdown!

 

PAT

Barclay’s kick is good.

 

OHIO STATE 17  WISCONSIN 7

 

KICKOFF

Barclay’s kick is taken by Gilreth at the three.  Gilreth runs to his right behind a wall of blockers.  He crosses the 25 to the 28 before going out of bounds.

 

Wisconsin Possession

1st & 10 at W28

Tolzien gives to Ball going off right tackle.  Ball crosses the 30 to the 32 before Orhion Johnson meets him for the tackle.

 

2nd & 6 at W32

Tolzien gives to Ball going wide to the right.  Ball has some room to run.  He crosses the 40 to the 44 for a gain of 12 and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W44

Tolzien hands to White going up the middle.  White gets two yards before Rolle knocks him to the ground.

 

2nd & 8 at W46

Tolzien stands and fires quickly to Kendricks.  Kendricks catches the ball and gets to the midfield stripe.

 

3rd & 2 at 50

Tolzien gives to Clay going up the middle.  He’s going to be close to the first down marker.  The referee calls for a measurement.  Wisconsin is short by about four inches.

 

4th & 1 at O49

Tolzien gives to Clay going off right guard.  He bashes through the line for three yards and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O46

Tolzien fakes to White and passes wide to Toon.  The pass is complete, and Toon advances the ball to the 32 yard line for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O32

Tolzien hands to White going to his left.  Homan is there to meet him, and White is dropped for a loss of two.

 

2nd & 12 at O34

Tolzien takes a semi-roll to this right and looks to pass.  He fires to Isaac Anderson.  Anderson makes the catch and is immediately brought down by Tyler Moeller at the 24.

 

3rd & 2 at O24

Tolzien fakes to Clay and passes to Kendricks across the middle.  Kendricks catches the ball at the 18 and turns to run.  He crosses the 15 to the 11 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O11

Tolzien hands to Ball going off left tackle.  He crosses the 10 to the 5, and heads to the flag.  He’s brought down at the one, but it is enough for a first down.

 

1st & G at O1

Tolzien sneaks, but he does not get in.  No gain.

 

2nd & G at O1

Tolzien hands to Clay, but Clay fumbles the ball.  There is a pileup on the field.  Wisconsin ball at the 2.

 

3rd & G at O2

Tolzien fakes to Clay and runs into the end zone for the Touchdown!

 

PAT

Welch’s point after try is good.

 

OHIO STATE 17  WISCONSIN 14

 

Kickoff

Welch’s kick is short and is taken by Jamaal Berry on a bounce at the eight.  Berry heads to his right.  He crosses the 10, the 15, the 20, and he has interference clearing a hole for him.  He crosses the 30, the 40, and is finally pushed out of bounds at the 44.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at O44

Pryor fakes to Jordan Hall and keeps in the opposite direction.  He is hit hard by Patrick Butrym and goes down at the 45 for a gain of one.  Pryor seems to be favoring his left elbow. 

 

2nd & 9 at O45

Joe Bauserman replaces Pryor at quarterback.  Bauserman hands to Saine going off right tackle.  Saine gets four yards before being met by Taylor.

 

3rd & 5 at O41

Bauserman gives to Saine going to his left.  He breaks a tackle and heads across the 45 to the 47 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O47

Bauserman fakes to Saine and rolls out to pass.  Nobody is open downfield, but he spots Saine just in front of him.  His pass is complete and Saine turns to run.  He crosses the 50 to the Wisconsin 46 for a gain of seven.

 

2nd & 3 at W46

Bauserman hands to Saine going up the middle.  Saine gets four yards and a first down before Taylor brings him down.  That is the last play of the third quarter.

 

End of 3rd Quarter

Ohio State 17  Wisconsin 14

 

4th Quarter

Ohio State Continues Possession

1st & 10 at W42

Pryor is back in at QB.  He gives to Herron going to his left.  Herron crosses the 40 to the 37.

 

2nd & 5 at W37

Pryor gives to Herron going to his right.  Herron is met by a host of Badger defenders and is taken down for a loss of a yard.

 

3rd & 6 at W38

Pryor drops to pass, and now he runs.  He crosses the 35 and takes a dive at the 32 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W32

Pryor fakes to Herron and fires wide to Sanzenbacher.  The pass is on target and complete to the 20 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W20

Pryor gives to Herron going off right guard.  Pryor doesn’t get much, maybe a yard, before Watt engulfs him at the 19.

 

2nd & 9 at W19

Pryor fakes to Saine and keeps to his left.  Now, he pulls up and throws to the end zone to Posey.  The pass is off the mark and incomplete.

 

3rd & 9 at W19

Pryor drops back to pass and is hit as he throws.  The ball sails high and is intercepted by Niles Brinkley at the 10.  Brinkley is off to the races.  He crosses the 20, the 30, the 40, the 50, the Ohio State 40, and is finally brought down at the 38.  There is a flag down on the field back at the Wisconsin 20.

 

Holding on Ohio State is the call, and Wisconsin declines the penalty.

 

Wisconsin Possession

1st & 10 at W10

Tolzien gives to Ball going to the left.  Ball turns the corner and gets to the 13.

 

2nd & 7 at W13

Tolzien rolls out wide to the right.  He looks to pass and now decides to run.  He is caught from behind by Nathan Williams and dropped for a three yard loss.

 

3rd & 10 at W10

Tolzien gives to Ball on a draw play.  Ball crosses the 15 to the 17, but he is short of a first down.

 

4th & 3 at W17

Nortman is ready to punt.  It is partially blocked and goes out of bounds at the Badger 38 yard line.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at W38

Pryor gives to Herron up the middle.  Herron gets to the 35 for a gain of three.

 

2nd & 7 at W35

Pryor gives to Herron going to his left.  Herron finds a seam and heads to the 30 for a gain of five.

 

3rd & 2 at W30

Pryor gives to Saine going up the middle.  Saine breaks a tackle and crosses the 25 to the 23 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W23

Pryor fakes to Saine and keeps going in the opposite direction.  He’s fooled the Badger defense.  Pryor crosses the 20 to the 15, the 10, the 5, and he is finally knocked out of bounds at the 2 for a gain of 21 and a first down.

 

1st & G at W2

Pryor gives to Saine, diving across the line, and he falls into the end zone for a Touchdown!

 

PAT

Barclay’s point after attempt is good.

 

OHIO STATE 24  WISCONSIN 14

 

Kickoff

Barclay’s kick sails to the Wisconsin 7 where Abbrederis hauls it in.  He crosses the 20 to the 24 yard line.

 

Wisconsin Possession

1st & 10 at W24

Tolzien drops back to pass and fires across the middle to Toon.  Toon makes the catch at the 32 and turns upfield to the 35 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W35

Tolzien fakes to White and passes wide to Anderson.  The pass is complete to the 43, where Devon Torrence brings him down short of the first down.

 

2nd & 2 at W43

Tolzien gives to Clay going left of cente.  Clay crosses the 45 to the 47 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W47

Tolzien fakes to White and drops to pass.  He looks deep across the middle to Kendricks, but the pass is batted away by Jermale Hines.

 

2nd & 10 at W47

Tolzien gives to Ball going wide to the left.  Ball has some room.  He crosses the 50 to the Ohio State 45 and dives to the 43 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O43

Tolzien takes a semi-roll to his right.  He fires downfield to Toon, and the pass is complete at the 36.  Toon turns and breaks a tackle, but he is knocked down from behind by Homan and fumbles.  John Simon recovers for the Buckeyes at the 35.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at O35

Pryor fakes to Saine and looks deep down the sideline for Posey.  Posey jumps up and makes a diving catch at the Wisconsin 41 for a gain of 24 yards and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W41

Pryor gives to Saine going off left tackle.  Saine is stopped at the 40 for a gain of a yard.

 

2nd & 9 at W40

Pryor gives to Saine going off right tackle.  Saine cuts back to the inside and gets to the 35 for a gain of five.

 

3rd & 4 at W35

Pryor gives to Herron going just right of center.  Herron has a hole.  He crosses the 30 to the 28 and a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W28

Pryor fakes to Herron and keeps to his right.  He crosses the 25 to the 23 before being knocked out of bounds.

 

2nd & 5 at W23

Pryor fumbles the snap and falls on the ball for a two yard loss.

 

3rd & 7 at W23

Pryor drops back to pass and escapes a strong pass rush.  He gets outside and throws the ball away.

 

4th & 7 at W23

Barclay attempts a 40-yard field goal.  The ball is down; the kick is up; and it is Good.

 

OHIO STATE 27  WISCONSIN 14

 

Kickoff

Barclay’s kick is a squibb on the ground.  Gilreth comes up to field it on a bounce at the 18.  He gains 10 yards before being brought down by a swarm of Buckeyes.

 

Wisconsin Possession

The Badgers must go to a hurry up offense with 2:05 left in the game.

 

1st & 10 at W28

Tolzien drops back to pass and fires across the middle to Kendricks.  The pass is complete, and Kendricks gets to the 39 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at W39

Tolzien drops back and fires quickly to the outside to Toon.  The pass is complete at the 42, and Toon picks up three more yards before going out of bounds.

 

2nd & 4 at W45

Tolzien has no time to pass.  He tries to break free, but he is sacked by Cameron Heyward for a loss of seven.  Wisconsin calls its first timeout of the half.

 

3rd & 11 at W38

Tolzien drops back to pass and looks to his right.  He fires to Anderson, and the pass is complete at the 47 yard line.  Anderson cannot gain anything extra.  Wisconsin calls its second timeout of the half with 1:34 remaining.

 

4th & 2 at W47

Tolzien gives to Clay going up the middle.  Her gets across midfield to the Ohio State 48 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O48

Tolzien spikes the ball.

 

2nd & 10 at O48

Tolzien drops to pass and looks deep for Toon.  Toon is covered, and Tolzien dumps to Ball.  Ball catches the ball at the 48 and runs across the 45 to the 41 and out of bounds.

 

3rd & 3 at O41

Tolzien rolls to his right and throws to the sideline to Gilreth.  Gilreth cannot haul it in.

 

4th & 3 at O41

Tolzien fires quickly to Kendrick.  Kendricks catches the ball at the 37 and gets to the 35 for a first down.

 

1st & 10 at O35

Tolzien spikes the ball with 0:59 remaining.

 

2nd & 10 at O35

Tolzien drops back to pass and fires deep down the left side to Toon.  Toon has it in his hands, but he cannot keep possession of the ball.

 

3rd & 10 at O35

Tolzien drops back and has to scramble immediately.  He crosses the 30 to the 28, but he cannot get the first down.  Wisconsin calls its final timeout.  0:45 to go in the game.

 

4th & 3 at O28

Tolzien drops back and passes to Kendricks.  Kendricks makes the catch at the 20 and turns and races to the 17 before running out of bounds.  First Down Wisconsin.  0:36 left in the game.

 

1st & 10 at O17

Tolzien drops back and fires into the end zone to Toon.  Toon makes the catch for the Touchdown!

 

PAT

Welch’s point after try is good

 

OHIO STATE 27  WISCONSIN 21

 

Kickoff

Wisconsin lines up for an onside kick attempt.  Welch’s kick bounces twice, and Tyler Moeller grabs the ball for Ohio State.

 

Ohio State Possession

1st & 10 at W41

Ohio State comes out in the victory formation.  Pryor takes the snap and takes two steps backward before taking a knee at the 43.  Wisconsin is out of timeouts, and the clock winds to zero.

 

Ohio State has won the Simper Bowl!

 

FINAL SCORE:  OHIO STATE 27  WISCONSIN 21

 

Thank You for tuning in.  Join the PiRate Ratings Thursday afternoon for our computer simulations of the Wildcard Round of the NFL Playoffs.  We will simulate each of the four games 100 times and give you the results.

December 27, 2010

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation–Semifinals

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation—The Final Four

 

You are looking live at the College Football Playoff Computer Simulation for 2010-11.

 

In the first round, Arkansas defeated Michigan State, Wisconsin defeated Connecticut, Boise State defeated Oklahoma, and Ohio State knocked off Virginia Tech.  Last week in the quarterfinals, Auburn beat Arkansas, Wisconsin edged Stanford, Oregon trounced Boise State, and Ohio State bested TCU.

 

For those of you that did not read our features from the previous two weeks, here are the particulars.  We have access to a university computer that has a simulation program that has been used for several years to pick football winners.  Its results in picking winners have been quite accurate, but it has failed in picking games against the spread.  Thus, it can only be used to pick winners.

 

We have used this simulator for three and a half years.  If you follow our NFL playoff coverage, then you have seen how accurate it can be.

 

Last year, the simulator gave us Boise State as the national champion, defeating TCU in the “Simper Bowl.”  The results were similar to the actual Fiesta Bowl won by Boise State.

 

Our simulated playoffs started with 12 teams.  We took the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and awarded them automatic bids.  We then took all other conference champions that finished in the top 12 of the BCS and awarded them automatic bids.  We then selected the highest-rated BCS teams not already given automatic bids and awarded at-large bids until we had our “Dandy Dozen.”  The teams were then seeded 1-12 based on their BCS rating.

 

The top four seeds received first round byes as a reward.  We limit our playoff to 12, because we feel the number 16 team would never be deserving of winning the national championship, while there have been seasons where the number 12 team could have been a contender.

 

With a 12-team playoff, we needed 11 games.  So, we used the top 11 bowls to play these games.  The first round began two weeks ago with four games being played.  The quarterfinals ran last Monday; today, the semifinals run, and next Monday, January 3, the Championship Game, called “The Simper Bowl,” will run.

 

In prior years, we used one simulation and reported the score and stats.  This year, we changed our format. 

 

We are running the simulation 100 times and taking the average score of these 100 simulations as our score for the playoff game. 

 

We will show you how many games each team won, the average score of these 100 simulations, the outlier scores on both sides, and the average rushing and passing yards for each team.

 

Here is the bracket for this season’s playoffs:

 

First Round

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

Quarterfinal Round

Sugar Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

Cotton Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

Capital One Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

 

 

As we stated above, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Boise State, and Ohio State emerged victorious in the opening round games, and Auburn, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Ohio State advanced to today’s semifinal games. 

 

The simulations have been conducted, and here are the results.  They were extremely close today.  In the Orange Bowl, 88 sims were decided by five points or less.  In the Rose Bowl, all 100 sims were decided by single digits, and 17 went to overtime!

 

 

Orange Bowl

#1 Auburn vs. #5 Wisconsin

 

WINNER: WISCONSIN

 

Average Score: Wisconsin 40.6  Auburn 38.7

Wisconsin wins: 53

Auburn wins: 47

 

Outlier A: Wisconsin 48  Auburn 36

Outlier B: Auburn 42  Wisconsin 29

Average Wisconsin Yards: rush-248  pass-177

Average Auburn Yards: rush-208  pass-211

 

Rose Bowl

#2 Oregon vs. #6 Ohio State

 

WINNER: OHIO STATE

 

Average Score: Ohio State 26.9  Oregon 24.8

Ohio State wins: 50

Oregon wins: 50

Outlier A: Ohio State 45  Oregon 37 3ot

Outlier B: Oregon 30  Ohio State 21

Average Ohio State Yards: rush-183  pass-179

Average Oregon Yards: rush-186  pass-180

 

 

Simper Bowl IV is set.  Congratulations to the Big Ten Conference for landing both championship game participants.  Wisconsin will play Ohio State for all the marbles, and you can see the results next Monday in play-by-play format.

 

The format for the championship game will be different.  We will simulate this game 100 times to discover the winner of the game to determine the winner.  Then, we will simulate it again as many times as needed for the winner to come up with another win.  The first simulation past number 100 that shows our 100-game simulation as the winner will be the official Simper Bowl results.  Since we will give you the results in a play-by-play format, if you do not peak at the bottom, you can follow the action as if you are seeing it unfold live, sort of.

 

For example, let’s say we were simulating 2009 Alabama against 2008 Florida.  Let’s say that Alabama wins the 100 simulations by a margin of 52 to 48.  We will then simulate this game again and again until the result shows Alabama winning and take that first simulation from #101 on that shows Alabama winning as the game result.

 

So, come by this website next Monday afternoon, January 3, 2011, for Simper Bowl IV.

 

Happy New Years to all, and please be responsible Friday night.  Don’t miss 2011 because you were ignorant on the last day of 2010.

December 20, 2010

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation–Quarterfinals

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation—Quarterfinal Round

 

You are looking live at College Football Playoff Computer Simulation for 2010-11.

 

In the first round, Arkansas defeated Michigan State, Wisconsin defeated Connecticut, Boise State defeated Oklahoma, and Ohio State knocked off Virginia Tech.

 

For those of you that did not read our feature from last week, here are the particulars.  We have access to a university computer that has a simulation program that has been used for several years to pick football winners.  Its results in picking winners have been quite accurate, but it has failed in picking games against the spread.  Thus, it can only be used to pick winners.

 

We have used this simulator for three and a half years.  If you follow our NFL playoff coverage, then you have seen how accurate it can be.

 

Last year, the simulator gave us Boise State as the national champion, defeating TCU in the “Simper Bowl.”  The results were similar to the actual Fiesta Bowl won by Boise State.

 

Our simulated playoffs started with 12 teams.  We took the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and awarded them automatic bids.  We then took all other conference champions that finished in the top 12 of the BCS and awarded them automatic bids.  We then selected the highest-rated BCS teams not already given automatic bids and awarded at-large bids until we had our “Dandy Dozen.”  The teams were then seeded 1-12 based on their BCS rating.

 

The top four seeds received first round byes as a reward.  We limit our playoff to 12, because we feel the number 16 team would never be deserving of winning the national championship, while there have been seasons where the number 12 team could have been a contender.

 

With a 12-team playoff, we needed 11 games.  So, we used the top 11 bowls to play these games.  The first round began last Monday with four games being played.  The quarterfinals will run today; the semifinals run next Monday, December 27, and the Championship Game will run on Monday, January 3.

 

In prior years, we used one simulation and reported the score and stats.  This year, we changed our format. 

 

We are running the simulation 100 times and taking the average score of these 100 simulations as our score for the playoff game. 

 

We will show you how many games each team won, the average score of these 100 simulations, the outlier scores on both sides, and the average rushing and passing yards for each team.

 

Here is the bracket for this season’s playoffs:

 

First Round

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

As we stated above, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Boise State, and Ohio State emerged victorious in the opening round games. 

 

Here are the matchups for today’s quarterfinal round.

 

Sugar Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

Cotton Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

Capital One Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

 

The simulations have been conducted, and here are the results.

 

 

Sugar Bowl

#8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

 

WINNER: AUBURN

 

Average Score: Auburn 44.6  Arkansas 23.9

Auburn wins: 93

Arkansas wins: 7

Outlier A: Auburn 59  Arkansas 17

Outlier B: Arkansas 49  Auburn 42 2OT

Average Auburn Yards: rush-231  pass-280

Average Arkansas Yards: rush-108  pass-271

 

Cotton Bowl

#5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

 

WINNER: WISCONSIN

 

Average Score: Wisconsin 43.3  Stanford 36.1

Wisconsin wins: 59

Stanford: 41

Outlier A: Wisconsin 51  Stanford 30

Outlier B: Stanford 40  Wisconsin 27

Average Wisconsin Yards: rush-251  pass-208

Average Stanford Yards: rush-106  pass-311

 

Fiesta Bowl

#10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

 

WINNER: OREGON

 

Average Score: Oregon 50.6  Boise State 31.7

Oregon wins: 88

Boise State wins: 12

Outlier A: Oregon 56  Boise State 16

Outlier B: Boise State 48  Oregon 35

Average Oregon Yards: rush-307  pass-277

Average Boise State Yards: rush-133  pass-299

 

Capital One Bowl

#6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

 

WINNER: OHIO STATE

 

Average Score: Ohio State 19.7  T C U 14.4

Ohio State wins: 60

T C U: 40

Outlier A: Ohio State 28  T C U 6

Outlier B: T C U 20  Ohio State 7

Average Ohio State Yards: rush-147  pass-155

Average T C U Yards: rush-97  pass-146

 

The semifinal round is set.  In the Orange Bowl, top-seeded Auburn takes on number five seed Wisconsin.  In the Rose Bowl, number two seed Oregon faces number six seed Ohio State.  Have a Merry Christmas, and we will see you next Monday with the new results.

December 13, 2010

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation

The 2010-11 College Football Playoff Computer Simulation

 

You are looking live at College Football Playoff Computer Simulation for 2010-11.

 

Can Boise State defend their Simper Bowl title from last season?  Will Auburn and Oregon make it to the title game?  Is there a dark horse team that can emerge like Butler in basketball?

 

Let’s get started with the particulars.  We have access to a university computer that has a simulation program that has been used for several years to pick football winners.  Its results in picking winners have been quite accurate, but it has failed in picking games against the spread.  Thus, it can only be used to pick winners.

 

We have used this simulator for four and a half years.  If you follow our NFL playoff coverage, then you have seen how accurate it can be.

 

Last year, the simulator gave us Boise State as the national champion, defeating TCU in “Simper Bowl III.”  The results were similar to the actual Fiesta Bowl won by Boise State, as the teams played to a 10-10 tie in regulation before Boise won in six overtimes 39-37.

 

Southern California won the first two Simper Bowls, 38-24 over Oklahoma in Simper Bowl I and 27-23 over Florida in Simper Bowl II.

 

Our simulated playoffs have 12 teams.  We take the champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and SEC and award them automatic bids.  We then take all other conference champions that finish in the top 12 of the BCS and award them automatic bids.  We then select the highest-rated BCS teams not already given automatic bids and award at-large bids until we have our “Dandy Dozen.”  The teams are then seeded 1-12 based on their BCS rating.

 

The top four seeds receive first round byes as a reward.  We also limit to 12, because we feel the number 16 team would never be deserving of winning the national championship, while there have been seasons where the number 12 team could have been a contender.

 

With a 12-team playoff, we need 11 games.  So, we use the top 11 bowls to play these games.  The first round begins today with four games being played.  The quarterfinals will run next Monday; the semifinals on Monday, December 27, and the Championship Game on Monday, January 3.

 

In prior years, we used one simulation and reported the score and stats.  This year, we are changing our format.  We are running the simulation 100 times and taking the average score of these 100 simulations as our score for the playoff game. 

 

We will show you how many games each team won, the average score of these 100 simulations, the outlier scores on both sides, and the average rushing and passing yards for each team.

 

Here is the bracket for this season’s playoffs:

 

First Round

Outback Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

Chick-fil-A Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

Insight Bowl: #7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

Alamo Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

Quarterfinals

Sugar Bowl: #1 Auburn vs. Arkansas or Michigan State

Cotton Bowl: #4 Stanford vs. Wisconsin or Connecticut

Fiesta Bowl: #2 Oregon vs. Oklahoma or Boise State

Capital One Bowl: #3 T C U vs. Ohio State or Virginia Tech

 

Semifinals

Orange Bowl: Winners of the Sugar and Cotton Bowls

Rose Bowl: Winners of the Fiesta and Capital One Bowls

 

Simper Bowl IV—The National Championship Game

Orange Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner

 

Are you ready?  Here are the results of the first round games.

 

Outback Bowl

#8 Arkansas vs. #9 Michigan State

 

WINNER: ARKANSAS

 

Average Score: Arkansas 30.4  Michigan State 27.6

Arkansas wins: 59

Michigan State wins: 41

Outlier A: Arkansas 44  Michigan State 17

Outlier B: Michigan State 37  Arkansas 20

Arkansas Avg Yards: rush-113  pass-274

Michigan State Avg Yards: rush-144  pass-228

 

Chick-fil-A Bowl

#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Connecticut

 

WINNER: WISCONSIN

 

Average Score: Wisconsin 43.7  Connecticut 22.6

Wisconsin wins: 94

Connecticut wins: 6

Outlier A: Wisconsin 61  Connecticut 13

Outlier B: Connecticut 33  Wisconsin 28

Average Wisconsin Yards: rush-246  pass-234

Average Connecticut Yards: rush-153  pass-159

 

Insight Bowl

#7 Oklahoma vs. #10 Boise State

 

WINNER: BOISE STATE

 

Average Score: Boise State 37.3  Oklahoma 29.2

Boise State wins: 66

Oklahoma wins: 34

Outlier A: Boise State 41  Oklahoma 20

Outlier B: Oklahoma 34  Boise State 26

Average Boise State Yards: rush-157  pass-269

Average Oklahoma Yards: rush-128  pass-249

 

Alamo Bowl

#6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech

 

WINNER: OHIO STATE

 

Average Score: Ohio State 26.0  Virginia Tech 18.7

Ohio State wins: 68

Virginia Tech: 32

Outlier A: Ohio State 37  Virginia Tech 10

Outlier B: Virginia Tech 24  Ohio State 17

Average Ohio State Yards: rush-151  pass-177

Average Virginia Tech Yards: rush-111  pass-149

 

 

The quarterfinal round is now set and will be played next Monday, December 20.  Here is the schedule.

 

Sugar Bowl: #8 Arkansas vs. #1 Auburn

Cotton Bowl: #5 Wisconsin vs. #4 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: #10 Boise State vs. #2 Oregon

Capital One Bowl: #6 Ohio State vs. #3 T C U

January 6, 2010

College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs–The Simper Bowl

2009-10 NCAA College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs

The Simper Bowl—The National Championship Game

 

Did you watch Monday night’s Fiesta Bowl?  I’m talking about the real one played on the field between TCU and Boise State in which Boise State won 17-10.  These two teams played in the computer simulated National Championship Game in Pasadena last night, and the simulated game was even more entertaining than the actual bowl game.

Before I tell you who won, let me state that the outcome of Monday night’s Fiesta Bowl played no part in this simulation.  In fact, all the games in this year’s college playoff simulation were simulated one night in mid-December, when I had access to the simulator.

This game didn’t want to end.  It went 6 overtimes.  There were 188 plays from scrimmage.  It was finally decided on a converted two-point attempt.  Your winner in the 2009-2010 NCAA College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs is: Boise State.  The final score: Boise State 39 TCU 37

 

The Horned Frogs couldn’t stop Boise State’s Jeremy Avery at the goalline on the winning two-point attempt.

Regulation ended at 10-10 when Bronco kicker Kyle Brontzman nailed a 51-yard field goal as time expired.

Both teams score touchdowns in the first overtime to make it 17-17.  Neither team could pick up a first down in the second overtime, but both made field goals to make it 20-20.

The third overtime saw both teams miss field goals, so the score remained 20-20.  In overtime number four, Boise State scored a touchdown and converted on the two-point try.  TCU faced 4th and 7 at the 18 yard line and quarterback Andy Dalton scrambled for a touchdown.  The successful two-point try made it 28-28.

In overtime five, neither team could move the ball and both settled for field goals to make it 31-31. 

TCU scored first in the sixth overtime but missed the two-point conversion.  Boise State drove 25 yards in five plays for the tying touchdown, when Avery came up with the successful conversion on the game’s final play.

Team 1 2 3 4 OT F
T C U 3 0 7 0 27 37
Boise State 7 0 0 3 29 39
             
    TCU Stat BSU    
    28 FD 26    
    45-164 Rush-Yds 45-154    
    263 Pass Yds 332    
    25-42-1 Passes 31-56-2    
    3-40.7 Punt 2-40.5    
    0-0 PR 0-0    
    11-90 Pen 8-70    
    2-1 Fum 2-0    
    87 Play 101    
    427 Tot Yds 486    

January 5, 2010

College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs–Semifinal Round

2009-10 NCAA College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs

The Final Four

 

The Semifinal Round of the 2009-2010 PiRate Computer Simulated College Football Playoffs is in the books.  And, just which two teams will be meeting in the Simper Bowl?

In the first game at the Orange Bowl, #6 Seed Boise State pulled off the upset over #2 Seed Texas.  The Broncos scored 10 points in the first quarter and held Colt McCoy in check all day to win 17-13.

In the Fiesta Bowl, #4 Seed TCU stopped #9 Seed Georgia Tech’s vaunted option attack and blocked a punt that set up a touchdown in a 24-12 victory.

That sets up a Simper Bowl game between 15-0 Boise State and 14-0 TCU.  These two teams played for real last night in the actual Fiesta Bowl, with Boise State winning 17-10.  The simulation game was simulated in mid-December, so last night’s actual game played no part in the simulation.

Team 1 2 3 4 OT F
Boise St. 10 0 7 0   17
Texas 0 3 3 7   13
             
    BSU Stat Tex    
    16 FD 16    
    38-144 Rush-Yds 24-102    
    178 Pass Yds 183    
    14-26-0 Passes 18-35-2    
    5-37.6 Punt 7-40.6    
    3-28 PR 2-13    
    3-20 Pen 9-70    
    2-1 Fum 1-0    
    64 Play 59    
    322 Tot Yds 285    
             
             
             
             
Team 1 2 3 4 OT F
T C U 7 3 0 14   24
Ga. Tech 0 3 3 6   12
             
    TCU Stat GT    
    18 FD 14    
    44-202 Rush-Yds 44-185    
    182 Pass Yds 63    
    15-26-0 Passes 4-9-1    
    6-43.2 Punt 7-36.4    
    2-15 PR 3-23    
    5-38 Pen 6-45    
    0-0 Fum 2-0    
    70 Play 53    
    384 Tot Yds 248    

January 4, 2010

College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs–Quarterfinal Round

2009-10 NCAA College Football Computer Simulated Playoffs

Quarterfinal Round

 

If you want to know the whys and hows of this computer simulation playoff, read the following entry from December 7, 2009: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2009/12/07/pirate-ratings-and-spreads-for-college-football%e2%80%93regular-season-final/

Four teams advance to the semifinals to be played released tomorrow.

In the Cotton Bowl #4 Seed T C U stopped Tim Tebow and #5 Seed Florida in an exciting game that went to overtime, before the Horned Frogs won 20-16.

In the Capital One Bowl, #6 Seed Boise State knocked off #3 Seed Cincinnati 38-20 in a battle of previously unbeaten teams.  The Bearcats couldn’t stop the Bronco running game as Jeremy Avery rushed for 126 yards and Doug Martin rushed for 102.

In the Rose Bowl, #2 Seed Texas showed its defensive prowess in a 20-9 win over #7 Seed Oregon.

In the Sugar Bowl, there was a huge upset.  #9 Seed Georgia Tech scored touchdowns on its final two possessions to pull off a 24-23 win over #1 Seed Alabama.  The Yellow Jackets won despite no completed passes.  Jonathan Dwyer scored the game-winner on a 74 yard run with 2:17 remaining in the game.

Team 1 2 3 4 OT F
T C U 0 7 6 0 7 20
Florida 10 0 0 3 3 16
             
    TCU Stat Fla    
    17 FD 19    
    45-116 Rush-Yds 48-166    
    192 Pass Yds 154    
    15-27-1 Passes 16-27-2    
    6-42.5 Punt 5-41.2    
    2-18 PR 3-11    
    7-57 Pen 5-52    
    0-0 Fum 2-1    
    72 Play 75    
    308 Tot Yds 320    
             
             
             
             
Team 1 2 3 4 OT F
Boise St. 10 14 7 7   38
Cincinnati 0 3 14 3   20
             
    BSU Stat Cin    
    22 FD 17    
    46-255 Rush-Yds 30-77    
    173 Pass Yds 223    
    15-25-0 Passes 19-34-2    
    1-44 Punt 4-38.8    
    2-51 PR 0-0    
    4-25 Pen 6-41    
    1-0 Fum 2-0    
    71 Play 64    
    428 Tot Yds 300    
             
             
             
             
Team 1 2 3 4 OT F
Texas 3 10 0 7   20
Oregon 0 3 6 0   9
             
    Tex Stat Ore    
    18 FD 9    
    39-142 Rush-Yds 33-81    
    211 Pass Yds 123    
    19-29-0 Passes 11-27-1    
    4-42.3 Punt 8-39.0    
    4-32 PR 1-(-2)    
    6-48 Pen 7-55    
    2-1 Fum 2-0    
    68 Play 60    
    353 Tot Yds 204    
             
             
             
             
Team 1 2 3 4 OT F
Ga. Tech 0 3 7 14   24
Alabama 3 3 14 3   23
             
    GT Stat Ala    
    15 FD 17    
    52-271 Rush-Yds 41-156    
    0 Pass Yds 166    
    0-6-0 Passes 14-25-1    
    5-40.8 Punt 6-39.7    
    2-14 PR 1-32    
    7-59 Pen 6-45    
    2-1 Fum 2-0    
    58 Play 66    
    271 Tot Yds 322    

Check back tomorrow for results from the Semifinal Round.  In the semifinals, TCU and Georgia Tech will meet in the Fiesta Bowl and Boise State will take on Texas in the Orange Bowl.  Then, on Thursday, check back for the National Championship Game in the Simper Bowl.

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