College Football Preview: November 24-28, 2015

Need Nine More
As of today, there are 71 bowl eligible teams with nine more needed to avoid having to invite a team with a losing record. Good news, because there are 18 teams that still have a chance to become bowl eligible, so just half of these teams need to get to six wins. At the present time, we project 82 teams to become bowl eligible, meaning two teams will not get invitations.

Here is a breakdown by conference.

POWER 5 CONFERENCES
Atlantic Coast
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 7:45 PM or 8:00 PM Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC on ABC or ESPN

Atlantic Division Champion: Clemson

Coastal Division Champion: North Carolina

Bowl Eligible: 8 (9)
Clemson, Duke, Florida St., Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina St., Pittsburgh, (Notre Dame)

Still Alive
Virginia Tech 5-6 must defeat Virginia this week
Note: Notre Dame can receive any ACC Bowl, and they can jump ahead of any ACC team with one more win than they have.

Big 12
No Championship Game
Championship Scenarios
Oklahoma controls its own destiny. If they beat Oklahoma St., the Sooners are champs.
Oklahoma State can win title if TCU beats Baylor, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma.
Baylor can win title if they beat TCU and Texas and Oklahoma St. beats Oklahoma.

Bowl Eligible: 6
Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia

Still Alive
Kansas St. 4-6 must beat Kansas and West Virginia
Texas 4-6 must beat Texas Tech and Baylor

Big Ten
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 8:15 PM Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN on Fox Sports

East Division Scenarios
Michigan St. controls its own destiny. If they beat Penn St., the Spartans are division champions
If Michigan St. loses, the Ohio St.-Michigan winner wins the division title

West Division Champion: Iowa

Bowl Eligible: 7
Iowa, Michigan, Michigan St., Northwestern, Ohio St., Penn St., Wisconsin

Still Alive
Illinois 5-6 must beat Northwestern
Indiana 5-6 must beat Purdue
Minnesota 5-6 must beat Wisconsin
Nebraska 5-6 must beat Iowa

Pac-12
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 7:45 PM or 8:00 PM Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA on ABC or ESPN

North Division Champion: Stanford
South Division Champion: UCLA-USC winner

Bowl Eligible: 9
Arizona, Arizona St., California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington St.

Still Alive
Washington 5-6 must beat Washington St.

Southeastern
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 4:00 PM Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA on CBS

East Division Champion: Florida

West Division Champion Scenarios
Alabama controls its own destiny. If they beat Auburn, they are West Division champions
Ole Miss can win the division if they beat Mississippi St., and Auburn beats Alabama

Bowl Eligible: 10
Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi St., Tennessee, Texas A&M

Still Alive
Kentucky 5-6 must beat Louisville
Missouri 5-6 must beat Arkansas

GROUP OF 5 CONFERENCES
American Athletic
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 12:00 Noon at West Division Champion on ABC or ESPN

East Division Scenarios
Temple controls their own destiny. If they beat Connecticut, the Owls are in the AAC Championship Game.
If South Florida beats Central Florida and Temple loses, then USF is division champ.
West Division Champion: Houston-Navy winner will host Championship Game

Bowl Eligible: 7
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Houston, Memphis, Navy, South Florida, Temple

Still Alive
East Carolina 5-6 must beat Cincinnati
Tulsa 5-6 must beat Tulane

Conference USA
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 12:00 Noon at home stadium of team with the better record, on ESPN2

East Division Champion: Western Kentucky-Marshall winner

West Division Champion: Louisiana Tech-Southern Miss. winner

Bowl Eligible: 5
Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss., Western Kentucky

Still Alive
Old Dominion 5-6 must beat Florida Atlantic

Independents
Notre Dame is bowl eligible and figures in the ACC bowls
BYU is bowl eligible and will play in the Las Vegas or Hawaii Bowl
Army is not bowl eligible, opening up an at-large spot in the Poinsettia Bowl

Mid-American
Championship Game: Friday, December 4, 8:00 PM Ford Field, Detroit, MI on ESPN2

East Division Champion: Bowling Green

West Division Scenarios
Northern Illinois controls its own destiny. If the Broncos beat Ohio, they are division champs.
Toledo wins the division title if they beat Western Michigan, and Ohio beats Northern Illinois.

Bowl Eligible: 7
Akron, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan

Still Alive
Buffalo 5-6 must beat Massachusetts

Mountain West
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 7:30 PM at Air Force on ESPN2

Mountain Division Champion: Air Force

West Division Champion: San Diego St.

Bowl Eligible: 7
Air Force, Boise St., Colorado St., New Mexico, Nevada, San Diego St., Utah St.

Still Alive
San Jose St. 5-6 must beat Boise St.

Sun Belt
No Championship Game

Championship Scenarios
Arkansas St. 6-0 controls its own destiny and has New Mexico St. and Texas St. remaining
Appalachian St. 5-1 wins the SBC if Arkansas St. loses both games, and Appy beats ULL and South Alabama
Georgia Southern 5-1 wins the SBC if Arkansas St. loses both games, Appy St. loses one game, and GSU beats South Alabama and Georgia St.

Bowl Eligible: 3
Appalachian St., Arkansas St., Georgia Southern

Still Alive
Georgia St. 4-6 must beat Troy and Georgia Southern
UL-Lafayette 4-6 must beat Appalachian St. and Troy
South Alabama 5-5 must beat either Georgia Southern or Appalachian St.

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Ratings
#	Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	Alabama	131.7	129.4	131.8	131.0
2	Oklahoma	127.7	124.0	128.4	126.7
3	Baylor	127.3	123.6	127.7	126.2
4	Ohio St.	126.7	121.9	127.0	125.2
5	Stanford	123.4	120.6	123.4	122.5
6	North Carolina	121.8	122.2	122.2	122.1
7	Ole Miss	124.0	119.2	122.6	121.9
8	Clemson	121.5	122.5	121.4	121.8
9	TCU	123.0	115.3	123.7	120.7
10	Notre Dame	121.0	118.6	120.5	120.0
11	UCLA	121.9	116.2	120.8	119.6
12	Arkansas	120.5	115.6	119.7	118.6
13	Tennessee	119.8	115.8	119.7	118.4
14	Oregon	120.1	114.8	120.3	118.4
15	USC	119.6	115.0	118.7	117.8
16	LSU	119.3	115.6	118.4	117.8
17	Michigan	117.8	115.4	117.8	117.0
18	Utah	119.3	113.6	117.8	116.9
19	Oklahoma St.	117.6	114.4	117.2	116.4
20	Mississippi St.	116.9	113.8	117.5	116.1
21	Michigan St.	117.1	114.2	116.8	116.0
22	Florida	116.7	113.4	116.7	115.6
23	Florida St.	115.2	116.5	114.8	115.5
24	Texas A&M	116.9	113.7	115.4	115.3
25	Georgia	116.1	110.8	115.4	114.1
26	West Virginia	115.2	109.7	114.4	113.1
27	California	115.0	109.7	114.1	112.9
28	Arizona St.	114.4	109.5	114.0	112.6
29	Washington	113.4	110.1	113.3	112.3
30	Auburn	113.6	110.4	112.3	112.1
31	Iowa	110.9	112.7	111.4	111.7
32	Virginia Tech	110.8	110.7	111.1	110.9
33	Wisconsin	111.0	110.3	109.5	110.3
34	Houston	107.7	113.1	109.1	110.0
35	Washington St.	110.5	107.1	111.3	109.6
36	Navy	107.5	111.6	109.2	109.4
37	North Carolina St.	109.4	110.6	107.9	109.3
38	Western Kentucky	108.9	109.0	109.9	109.3
39	Pittsburgh	108.6	109.6	109.5	109.2
40	Bowling Green	106.6	111.2	109.5	109.1
41	Nebraska	109.1	107.4	108.6	108.4
42	San Diego St.	106.1	110.7	108.2	108.3
43	Temple	107.1	109.3	108.3	108.2
44	Georgia Tech	109.1	106.9	107.5	107.8
45	BYU	107.3	107.2	107.9	107.5
46	Louisville	107.0	108.9	106.4	107.4
47	Missouri	108.2	104.7	107.2	106.7
48	Toledo	105.4	106.9	107.1	106.5
49	Penn St.	106.3	106.1	105.9	106.1
50	Boise St.	107.0	104.0	106.5	105.8
51	Northwestern	105.6	105.9	105.7	105.7
52	Arizona	107.9	102.4	106.8	105.7
53	Memphis	105.2	106.3	105.5	105.7
54	Minnesota	105.7	104.5	105.5	105.2
55	South Carolina	106.9	103.3	105.4	105.2
56	Texas Tech	107.9	99.7	107.7	105.1
57	Miami	104.7	104.9	105.2	104.9
58	Illinois	104.9	102.6	103.7	103.7
59	Texas	104.9	101.1	104.7	103.6
60	Cincinnati	102.0	103.9	103.3	103.1
61	Duke	103.0	102.7	102.7	102.8
62	South Florida	100.3	106.1	101.4	102.6
63	Colorado	104.6	99.7	102.7	102.3
64	Virginia	102.6	101.5	102.8	102.3
65	Western Michigan	101.2	102.2	102.1	101.8
66	Louisiana Tech	101.3	101.6	102.1	101.7
67	Kansas St.	105.1	95.6	104.1	101.6
68	Boston College	100.8	103.3	99.5	101.2
69	Air Force	99.8	103.5	100.1	101.1
70	Kentucky	102.8	99.0	101.6	101.1
71	Georgia Southern	99.7	102.1	101.2	101.0
72	Northern Illinois	98.2	102.3	99.6	100.0
73	Iowa St.	100.8	97.1	101.1	99.7
74	Indiana	99.6	99.7	99.5	99.6
75	Vanderbilt	100.5	96.4	99.9	98.9
76	Marshall	98.4	99.3	98.6	98.8
77	Appalachian St.	96.9	100.2	98.9	98.7
78	Utah St.	98.4	98.9	97.4	98.2
79	Wake Forest	96.5	99.6	96.2	97.4
80	Southern Mississippi	95.4	98.0	96.4	96.6
81	East Carolina	94.7	98.5	95.6	96.3
82	Purdue	96.5	95.7	95.2	95.8
83	Syracuse	94.6	97.2	94.3	95.4
84	Arkansas St.	93.9	95.1	95.5	94.8
85	Middle Tennessee	94.6	93.9	94.4	94.3
86	Colorado St.	93.6	94.0	93.5	93.7
87	Connecticut	91.3	96.5	93.1	93.6
88	San Jose St.	92.5	95.3	92.9	93.6
89	Maryland	94.0	92.7	93.7	93.5
90	Central Michigan	91.1	95.2	93.3	93.2
91	Rutgers	94.0	91.5	91.9	92.5
92	Tulsa	89.4	93.4	90.3	91.0
93	Nevada	89.6	93.4	89.7	90.9
94	New Mexico	90.9	91.3	89.8	90.7
95	Ohio	87.2	91.3	88.8	89.1
96	Akron	85.0	91.0	87.1	87.7
97	SMU	85.3	88.9	84.9	86.4
98	Oregon St.	87.7	84.3	85.6	85.9
99	Florida Atlantic	84.2	87.6	85.1	85.6
100	Florida International	83.8	86.2	83.9	84.6
101	Buffalo	81.5	87.1	82.6	83.7
102	Massachusetts	82.2	85.3	82.5	83.3
103	UNLV	82.3	84.2	82.9	83.1
104	Tulane	82.6	85.2	81.5	83.1
105	Troy	81.9	83.4	82.9	82.7
106	Georgia St.	80.5	82.0	81.5	81.3
107	Army	78.1	85.6	79.4	81.0
108	Fresno St.	80.7	83.5	78.5	80.9
109	Ball St.	80.0	82.2	80.4	80.9
110	UL-Lafayette	80.2	82.6	79.8	80.9
111	UT-San Antonio	78.8	81.5	79.4	79.9
112	Wyoming	79.6	81.0	78.2	79.6
113	Kent St.	78.2	80.9	78.7	79.3
114	UTEP	78.4	81.0	78.2	79.2
115	Rice	78.2	80.9	77.6	78.9
116	Hawaii	78.2	79.8	76.9	78.3
117	Old Dominion	76.6	80.5	76.2	77.8
118	Central Florida	76.7	79.5	76.6	77.6
119	South Alabama	75.4	80.5	76.3	77.4
120	Miami (O)	75.4	80.3	76.3	77.3
121	Idaho	73.8	78.8	75.0	75.9
122	Texas St.	74.5	77.2	74.5	75.4
123	New Mexico St.	73.2	75.3	73.8	74.1
124	North Texas	72.4	75.8	72.2	73.5
125	Kansas	75.7	69.3	73.4	72.8
126	Eastern Michigan	70.7	76.6	70.1	72.5
127	UL-Monroe	70.8	69.7	70.1	70.2
128	Charlotte	67.9	69.6	67.8	68.4

 

PiRate Retrodictive
#	Team
1	Alabama
2	Clemson
3	Oklahoma
4	Ohio St.
5	Notre Dame
6	Iowa
7	Baylor
8	Michigan St.
9	Stanford
10	Oklahoma St.
11	Michigan
12	TCU
13	Florida
14	North Carolina
15	Ole Miss
16	Florida St.
17	Navy
18	Mississippi St.
19	Northwestern
20	Oregon
21	Utah
22	LSU
23	USC
24	UCLA
25	Toledo
26	Tennessee
27	Houston
28	Pittsburgh
29	Wisconsin
30	Texas A&M
31	Washington St.
32	Arkansas
33	Georgia
34	West Virginia
35	Temple
36	Memphis
37	California
38	BYU
39	Penn St.
40	Western Kentucky
41	Bowling Green
42	Texas Tech
43	Auburn
44	South Florida
45	Miami (Fla)
46	Washington
47	North Carolina St.
48	Arizona St.
49	Appalachian St.
50	San Diego St.
51	Northern Illinois
52	Louisville
53	Georgia Southern
54	Nebraska
55	Air Force
56	Virginia Tech
57	Minnesota
58	Louisiana Tech
59	Marshall
60	Texas
61	Indiana
62	Boise St.
63	Kansas St.
64	Duke
65	Southern Miss.
66	Central Michigan
67	Cincinnati
68	Illinois
69	Arkansas St.
70	Arizona
71	Connecticut
72	Virginia
73	Western Michigan
74	Georgia Tech
75	Utah St.
76	Kentucky
77	Iowa St.
78	Ohio
79	Tulsa
80	Missouri
81	Vanderbilt
82	East Carolina
83	South Carolina
84	Rutgers
85	Middle Tennessee
86	Syracuse
87	Maryland
88	San Jose St.
89	Buffalo
90	Boston College
91	Colorado
92	Akron
93	Colorado St.
94	Wake Forest
95	Nevada
96	Troy
97	New Mexico
98	Purdue
99	South Alabama
100	Oregon St.
101	Georgia St.
102	SMU
103	Florida Int’l.
104	Old Dominion
105	Louisiana-Lafayette
106	UNLV
107	Tulane
108	Ball St.
109	Rice
110	Florida Atlantic
111	UTSA
112	Idaho
113	New Mexico St.
114	Texas St.
115	Kent St.
116	Fresno St.
117	Kansas
118	Massachusetts
119	UTEP
120	Miami (O)
121	Army
122	Hawaii
123	Wyoming
124	Louisiana-Monroe
125	North Texas
126	Charlotte
127	Eastern Michigan
128	Central Florida

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Temple	6-1	9-2	107.1	109.3	108.3	108.2
Cincinnati	3-4	6-5	102.0	103.9	103.3	103.1
South Florida	5-2	7-4	100.3	106.1	101.4	102.6
East Carolina	3-4	5-6	94.7	98.5	95.6	96.3
Connecticut	4-3	6-5	91.3	96.5	93.1	93.6
Central Florida	0-7	0-11	76.7	79.5	76.6	77.6
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Houston	6-1	10-1	107.7	113.1	109.1	110.0
Navy	7-0	9-1	107.5	111.6	109.2	109.4
Memphis	4-3	8-3	105.2	106.3	105.5	105.7
Tulsa	2-5	5-6	89.4	93.4	90.3	91.0
SMU	1-6	2-9	85.3	88.9	84.9	86.4
Tulane	1-6	3-8	82.6	85.2	81.5	83.1
AAC Averages			95.8	99.4	96.6	97.2
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Clemson	8-0	11-0	121.5	122.5	121.4	121.8
Florida St.	6-2	9-2	115.2	116.5	114.8	115.5
North Carolina St.	3-4	7-4	109.4	110.6	107.9	109.3
Louisville	5-3	6-5	107.0	108.9	106.4	107.4
Boston College	0-7	3-8	100.8	103.3	99.5	101.2
Wake Forest	1-6	3-8	96.5	99.6	96.2	97.4
Syracuse	1-6	3-8	94.6	97.2	94.3	95.4
Coastal Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
North Carolina	7-0	10-1	121.8	122.2	122.2	122.1
Virginia Tech	3-4	5-6	110.8	110.7	111.1	110.9
Pittsburgh	6-1	8-3	108.6	109.6	109.5	109.2
Georgia Tech	1-7	3-8	109.1	106.9	107.5	107.8
Miami	4-3	7-4	104.7	104.9	105.2	104.9
Duke	3-4	6-5	103.0	102.7	102.7	102.8
Virginia	3-4	4-7	102.6	101.5	102.8	102.3
ACC Averages			107.5	108.4	107.3	107.7
Big 12 Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Oklahoma	7-1	10-1	127.7	124.0	128.4	126.7
Baylor	6-1	9-1	127.3	123.6	127.7	126.2
TCU	6-2	9-2	123.0	115.3	123.7	120.7
Oklahoma St.	7-1	10-1	117.6	114.4	117.2	116.4
West Virginia	3-4	6-4	115.2	109.7	114.4	113.1
Texas Tech	3-5	6-5	107.9	99.7	107.7	105.1
Texas	3-4	4-6	104.9	101.1	104.7	103.6
Kansas St.	1-6	4-6	105.1	95.6	104.1	101.6
Iowa St.	2-6	3-8	100.8	97.1	101.1	99.7
Kansas	0-8	0-11	75.7	69.3	73.4	72.8
Big 12 Averages			110.5	105.0	110.2	108.6
Big Ten Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Ohio St.	6-1	10-1	126.7	121.9	127.0	125.2
Michigan	6-1	9-2	117.8	115.4	117.8	117.0
Michigan St.	6-1	10-1	117.1	114.2	116.8	116.0
Penn St.	4-3	7-4	106.3	106.1	105.9	106.1
Indiana	1-6	5-6	99.6	99.7	99.5	99.6
Maryland	0-7	2-9	94.0	92.7	93.7	93.5
Rutgers	1-6	4-7	94.0	91.5	91.9	92.5
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Iowa	7-0	11-0	110.9	112.7	111.4	111.7
Wisconsin	5-2	8-3	111.0	110.3	109.5	110.3
Nebraska	3-4	5-6	109.1	107.4	108.6	108.4
Northwestern	5-2	9-2	105.6	105.9	105.7	105.7
Minnesota	2-5	5-6	105.7	104.5	105.5	105.2
Illinois	2-5	5-6	104.9	102.6	103.7	103.7
Purdue	1-6	2-9	96.5	95.7	95.2	95.8
Big Ten Averages			107.1	105.8	106.6	106.5
Conference USA
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Western Kentucky	7-0	9-2	108.9	109.0	109.9	109.3
Marshall	6-1	9-2	98.4	99.3	98.6	98.8
Middle Tennessee	5-2	6-5	94.6	93.9	94.4	94.3
Florida Atlantic	2-5	2-9	84.2	87.6	85.1	85.6
Florida International	3-5	5-7	83.8	86.2	83.9	84.6
Old Dominion	3-4	5-6	76.6	80.5	76.2	77.8
Charlotte	0-7	2-9	67.9	69.6	67.8	68.4
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Louisiana Tech	6-1	8-3	101.3	101.6	102.1	101.7
Southern Mississippi	6-1	8-3	95.4	98.0	96.4	96.6
UT-San Antonio	3-4	3-8	78.8	81.5	79.4	79.9
UTEP	2-5	4-7	78.4	81.0	78.2	79.2
Rice	2-5	4-7	78.2	80.9	77.6	78.9
North Texas	1-6	1-10	72.4	75.8	72.2	73.5
CUSA Averages			86.1	88.1	86.3	86.8
FBS Independents
Team		Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Notre Dame		10-1	121.0	118.6	120.5	120.0
BYU		8-3	107.3	107.2	107.9	107.5
Army		2-9	78.1	85.6	79.4	81.0
Independents Averages			102.1	103.8	102.6	102.8
Mid-American Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Bowling Green	6-1	8-3	106.6	111.2	109.5	109.1
Ohio	4-3	7-4	87.2	91.3	88.8	89.1
Akron	4-3	6-5	85.0	91.0	87.1	87.7
Buffalo	3-4	5-6	81.5	87.1	82.6	83.7
Massachusetts	1-6	2-9	82.2	85.3	82.5	83.3
Kent St.	2-5	3-8	78.2	80.9	78.7	79.3
Miami (O)	2-6	3-9	75.4	80.3	76.3	77.3
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Toledo	6-1	9-1	105.4	106.9	107.1	106.5
Western Michigan	5-2	6-5	101.2	102.2	102.1	101.8
Northern Illinois	6-1	8-3	98.2	102.3	99.6	100.0
Central Michigan	5-2	6-5	91.1	95.2	93.3	93.2
Ball St.	2-5	3-8	80.0	82.2	80.4	80.9
Eastern Michigan	0-7	1-10	70.7	76.6	70.1	72.5
MAC Averages			87.9	91.7	89.1	89.6
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	4-3	7-4	107.0	104.0	106.5	105.8
Air Force	6-1	8-3	99.8	103.5	100.1	101.1
Utah St.	5-3	6-5	98.4	98.9	97.4	98.2
Colorado St.	4-3	6-5	93.6	94.0	93.5	93.7
New Mexico	4-3	6-5	90.9	91.3	89.8	90.7
Wyoming	1-6	1-10	79.6	81.0	78.2	79.6
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Diego St.	7-0	8-3	106.1	110.7	108.2	108.3
San Jose St.	4-3	5-6	92.5	95.3	92.9	93.6
Nevada	4-3	6-5	89.6	93.4	89.7	90.9
UNLV	2-5	3-8	82.3	84.2	82.9	83.1
Fresno St.	2-6	3-8	80.7	83.5	78.5	80.9
Hawaii	0-8	2-10	78.2	79.8	76.9	78.3
MWC Averages			91.6	93.3	91.2	92.0
Pac-12 Conference
North Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Stanford	8-1	9-2	123.4	120.6	123.4	122.5
Oregon	6-2	8-3	120.1	114.8	120.3	118.4
California	3-5	6-5	115.0	109.7	114.1	112.9
Washington	3-5	5-6	113.4	110.1	113.3	112.3
Washington St.	6-2	8-3	110.5	107.1	111.3	109.6
Oregon St.	0-8	2-9	87.7	84.3	85.6	85.9
South Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
UCLA	5-3	8-3	121.9	116.2	120.8	119.6
USC	5-3	7-4	119.6	115.0	118.7	117.8
Utah	5-3	8-3	119.3	113.6	117.8	116.9
Arizona St.	4-4	6-5	114.4	109.5	114.0	112.6
Arizona	3-6	6-6	107.9	102.4	106.8	105.7
Colorado	1-7	4-8	104.6	99.7	102.7	102.3
Pac-12 Averages			113.2	108.6	112.4	111.4
Southeastern Conference
East Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Tennessee	4-3	7-4	119.8	115.8	119.7	118.4
Florida	7-1	10-1	116.7	113.4	116.7	115.6
Georgia	5-3	8-3	116.1	110.8	115.4	114.1
Missouri	1-6	5-6	108.2	104.7	107.2	106.7
South Carolina	1-7	3-8	106.9	103.3	105.4	105.2
Kentucky	2-6	5-6	102.8	99.0	101.6	101.1
Vanderbilt	2-5	4-7	100.5	96.4	99.9	98.9
West Division
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Alabama	6-1	10-1	131.7	129.4	131.8	131.0
Ole Miss	5-2	8-3	124.0	119.2	122.6	121.9
Arkansas	4-3	6-5	120.5	115.6	119.7	118.6
LSU	4-3	7-3	119.3	115.6	118.4	117.8
Mississippi St.	4-3	8-3	116.9	113.8	117.5	116.1
Texas A&M	4-3	8-3	116.9	113.7	115.4	115.3
Auburn	2-5	6-5	113.6	110.4	112.3	112.1
SEC Averages			115.3	111.5	114.5	113.8
Sunbelt Conference
Team	Conference	Overall	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Georgia Southern	5-1	7-3	99.7	102.1	101.2	101.0
Appalachian St.	5-1	8-2	96.9	100.2	98.9	98.7
Arkansas St.	6-0	7-3	93.9	95.1	95.5	94.8
Troy	2-4	3-7	81.9	83.4	82.9	82.7
Georgia St.	3-3	4-6	80.5	82.0	81.5	81.3
UL-Lafayette	3-3	4-6	80.2	82.6	79.8	80.9
South Alabama	3-3	5-5	75.4	80.5	76.3	77.4
Idaho	2-5	3-8	73.8	78.8	75.0	75.9
Texas St.	2-4	3-7	74.5	77.2	74.5	75.4
New Mexico St.	3-3	3-7	73.2	75.3	73.8	74.1
UL-Monroe	0-7	1-10	70.8	69.7	70.1	70.2
Sun Belt Averages			81.9	84.3	82.7	82.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
#	League	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
1	SEC	115.3	111.5	114.5	113.8
2	Pac-12	113.2	108.6	112.4	111.4
3	Big 12	110.5	105.0	110.2	108.6
4	ACC	107.5	108.4	107.3	107.7
5	Big Ten	107.1	105.8	106.6	106.5
6	Indep.	102.1	103.8	102.6	102.8
7	AAC	95.8	99.4	96.6	97.2
8	MWC	91.6	93.3	91.2	92.0
9	MAC	87.9	91.7	89.1	89.6
10	CUSA	86.1	88.1	86.3	86.8
11	SBC	81.9	84.3	82.7	82.9

 

Projected Playoff Teams

NCAA Playoffs
1	Clemson
2	Alabama
3	Iowa
4	Oklahoma

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
#	Team
1	Navy
2	Houston
3	Toledo
4	Western Kentucky
5	Air Force

 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
#	Team
10	Iowa St.
9	Indiana
8	Vanderbilt
7	Wake Forest
6	Purdue
5	Syracuse
4	Maryland
3	Rutgers
2	Oregon St.
1	Kansas

 

FCS Top 10
#	Team	PiRate
1	Jacksonville St.	97.5
2	North Dakota St.	91.9
3	Dartmouth	91.8
4	Harvard	91.6
5	McNeese St.	91.5
6	Illinois St.	91.0
7	Charleston Southern	90.1
8	Portland St.	89.8
9	James Madison	89.7
10	Citadel	89.6

 

This Week’s Games
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Tuesday, November 24
Ball St.	Bowling Green	-24.1	-26.5	-26.6
Northern Illinois	Ohio	14.0	14.0	13.8
Thursday, November 26
Central Florida	South Florida	-21.6	-24.6	-22.8
Texas	Texas Tech	0.0	4.4	0.0
Friday, November 27
Pittsburgh	Miami (Fla.)	6.9	7.7	7.3
Western Kentucky	Marshall	13.5	12.7	14.3
Houston	Navy	3.2	4.5	2.9
Toledo	Western Michigan	7.2	7.7	8.0
Akron	Kent St.	9.3	2.6	10.9
Central Michigan	Eastern Michigan	22.9	21.1	25.7
Georgia St.	Troy	0.6	0.6	0.6
Arkansas	Missouri	15.3	13.9	15.5
Oregon	Oregon St.	34.4	32.5	36.7
Washington	Washington St.	4.9	5.0	4.0
Nebraska	Iowa	1.2	-2.3	0.2
San Jose St.	Boise St.	-11.5	-5.7	-10.6
Buffalo	Massachusetts	1.8	4.3	2.6
TCU	Baylor	-1.8	-5.8	-1.5
Tulane	Tulsa	-4.3	-5.7	-6.3
Saturday, November 21
East Carolina	Cincinnati	-4.3	-2.4	-4.7
Memphis	SMU	22.9	20.4	23.6
West Virginia	Iowa St.	17.4	15.6	16.3
Purdue	Indiana	-1.1	-2.0	-2.3
Rutgers	Maryland	2.5	1.3	0.7
Louisiana Tech	Southern Miss.	8.4	6.1	8.2
Michigan	Ohio St.	-5.9	-3.5	-6.2
Old Dominion	Florida Atlantic	-5.1	-4.6	-6.4
South Carolina	Clemson	-12.6	-17.2	-14.0
Virginia	Virginia Tech	-6.2	-7.2	-6.3
Georgia Tech	Georgia	-5.0	-1.9	-5.9
Kentucky	Louisville	-2.2	-7.9	-2.8
Syracuse	Boston College	-3.7	-3.6	-2.7
Wake Forest	Duke	-4.5	-1.1	-4.5
Appalachian St.	Louisiana-Lafayette	19.2	20.1	21.6
Wyoming	UNLV	-0.2	-0.7	-2.2
Georgia Southern	South Alabama	26.8	24.1	27.4
UTSA	Middle Tennessee	-13.3	-9.9	-12.5
Utah	Colorado	17.7	16.9	18.1
North Carolina St.	North Carolina	-10.4	-9.6	-12.3
Auburn	Alabama	-16.1	-17.0	-17.5
Rice	Charlotte	12.3	13.3	11.8
Michigan St.	Penn St.	13.8	11.1	13.9
Minnesota	Wisconsin	-2.3	-2.8	-1.0
North Texas	UTEP	-4.0	-3.2	-4.0
USC	UCLA	-0.3	2.0	-0.1
Northwestern (Chi.)	Illinois	0.7	3.3	2.0
Utah St.	BYU	-6.9	-6.3	-8.5
New Mexico St.	Arkansas St.	-18.2	-17.3	-19.2
Kansas	Kansas St.	-27.4	-24.3	-28.7
Tennessee	Vanderbilt	22.3	22.4	22.8
Idaho	Texas St.	1.8	4.1	3.0
Temple	Connecticut	18.3	15.3	17.7
Mississippi St.	Ole Miss	-5.1	-3.4	-3.1
Stanford	Notre Dame	5.4	5.0	5.9
Florida	Florida St.	3.5	-1.1	3.9
LSU	Texas A&M	5.4	4.9	16.0
Oklahoma St.	Oklahoma	-8.1	-7.6	-9.2
Fresno St.	Colorado St.	-10.4	-8.0	-12.5
California	Arizona St.	3.6	3.2	3.1
New Mexico	Air Force	-5.9	-9.2	-7.3
San Diego St.	Nevada	19.5	20.3	21.5
Hawaii	Louisiana-Monroe	11.4	14.1	10.8

 

Bowl	Conferences		Team	vs.	Team
Cure	AAC	SBC	Cincinnati	vs.	Washington *
New Mexico	MWC	CUSA	New Mexico	vs.	Tulsa *
Las Vegas	Pac-12	MWC/BYU	USC	vs.	BYU
Camellia	MAC	SBC	Ohio	vs.	Georgia Southern
New Orleans	CUSA	SBC	Louisiana Tech	vs.	Arkansas St.
Miami Beach	AAC	CUSA	South Florida	vs.	Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato	MAC	MWC	Akron	vs.	Boise St.
Boca Raton	AAC	MAC	Connecticut	vs.	Northern Illinois
Poinsettia	MWC	Army	Air Force	vs.	Arizona St. *
GoDaddy	MAC	SBC	Toledo	vs.	Appalachian St.
Bahamas	CUSA	MAC	Southern Miss.	vs.	Bowling Green
Hawaii	AAC	MWC/BYU	Houston	vs.	San Diego St.
St. Petersburg	AAC	CUSA	Memphis	vs.	Marshall
Sun	ACC	Pac-12	Pittsburgh	vs.	Utah
Heart of Dallas	Big 12	CUSA	Utah St. *	vs.	Middle Tennessee
Pinstripe	ACC	Big Ten	Duke	vs.	Indiana
Independence	SEC	ACC	Kentucky	vs.	Miami (Fla.)
Foster Farms	Big Ten	Pac-12	Minnesota	vs.	California
Military	ACC	AAC	Louisville	vs.	Temple
Quick Lane	ACC	Big Ten	Central Michigan *	vs.	San Jose St. *
Armed Forces	Big Ten	MWC	Washington St. *	vs.	Colorado St.
Russell Athletic	ACC	Big 12	Florida St.	vs.	Oklahoma St.
Arizona	CUSA	MWC	Old Dominion	vs.	Nevada
Texas	Big 12	SEC	Texas Tech	vs.	Texas A&M
Birmingham	AAC	SEC	East Carolina	vs.	Auburn
Belk	ACC	SEC	Virginia Tech	vs.	LSU
Music City	ACC/B10	SEC	Penn St.	vs.	Tennessee
Peach	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Clemson	vs.	Navy
Cotton	Playoff	Playoff	Alabama	vs.	North Carolina
Orange	Playoff	Playoff	Oklahoma	vs.	Iowa
Holiday	Big Ten	Pac-12	Wisconsin	vs.	UCLA
Ouback	Big Ten	SEC	Northwestern	vs.	Georgia
Citrus	Big Ten	SEC	Ohio St.	vs.	Mississippi St.
Sugar	Big 12	SEC	Baylor	vs.	Florida
Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12	Michigan St.	vs.	Stanford
Fiesta	N. Y. 6	N. Y. 6	Michigan	vs.	Notre Dame
TaxSlayer	ACC/B10	SEC	North Carolina St.	vs.	Ole Miss
Liberty	Big 12	SEC	West Virginia	vs.	Arkansas
Alamo	Big 12	Pac-12	TCU	vs.	Oregon
Cactus	Big 12	Pac-12	Kansas St.	vs.	Arizona
Nat’l Champ.	Semifinal	Winners	Alabama	vs.	Oklahoma
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

 

PiRate Ratings: NFL for Week 17–December 29, 2013

The Playoff Races In Full

A F C

 

Denver

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs with a win or tie vs. Oakland, or

A New England loss or tie against Buffalo

Falls to #2 Seed if they lose to Oakland and New England beats Buffalo

New England

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs with a win over Buffalo and a Denver loss to Oakland

Clinches #2 Seed with a win or tie vs. Buffalo, or a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore and an Indianapolis loss or tie against Jacksonville

Cincinnati

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Baltimore and a loss by New England to Buffalo

 

Wins Tiebreaker over Indianapolis for #3 Seed (Head-to-Head Win)

 

Indianapolis

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Jacksonville and a New England loss to Buffalo and a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore

 

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Jacksonville and a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore, or

 

A tie over Jacksonville and a Cincinnati loss to Baltimore

 

Kansas City

Has already clinched #5 Seed

Miami

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over the NY Jets and Baltimore loss or tie to Cincinnati, or

A win over NY Jets and a San Diego win over Kansas City, or

A tie with NY Jets, and a Baltimore loss to Cincinnati, and a San Diego loss or tie vs. Kansas City, or

A tie with NY Jets, and a Baltimore tie vs. Cincinnati, and a San Diego tie vs. Kansas City

Baltimore

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over Cincinnati and a San Diego loss or tie vs. Kansas City, or

A win over Cincinnati, and a Miami loss or tie vs. NY Jets, or

A tie vs. Cincinnati, and a Miami loss to NY Jets, and a San Diego loss or tie with Kansas City, or

A tie vs. Cincinnati, and a Miami tie with NY Jets, and a San Diego loss to Kansas City, or

A Miami loss to NY Jets, and a San Diego loss to Kansas City, and a Pittsburgh loss or tie with Cleveland

San Diego

Clinches #6 Seed with win over Kansas City, and Miami loss or tie with NY Jets, and Baltimore loss or tie with Cincinnati, or

 

A tie with Kansas City, and a Miami loss to NY Jets, and Baltimore loss to Cincinnati

Pittsburgh

Clinches #6 Seed with win over Cleveland, and Miami loss to NY Jets, and Baltimore loss to Cincinnati, and San Diego loss to Kansas City

N F C

 

Seattle

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs with a win or tie against St. Louis, or

A San Francisco loss or tie against Arizona

Carolina

Clinches #1 Seed with a win over Atlanta and a Seattle loss to St. Louis, and a San Francisco win over Arizona

Clinches #2 Seed with a win or tie with Atlanta, or

A New Orleans loss or tie with Tampa Bay

Philadelphia

Clinches #3 Seed with win or tie with Dallas

Chicago

Clinches the NFC North Division with a win or tie with Green Bay

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Green Bay and Dallas winning the NFC East (wins tiebreaker based on head-to-head win)

Clinches #4 Seed if Philadelphia wins the NFC East, (or if Bears tie and Dallas wins)

San Francisco

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs with a win over Arizona, and a Seattle loss to St. Louis, and a Carolina loss or tie with Atlanta

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Arizona and a Seattle loss to St. Louis

Clinches #5 Seed with win over Arizona, or

A New Orleans loss to Tampa Bay (New Orleans and Carolina both hold tiebreaker based on head-to-head win)

Clinches #6 Seed if tied with either New Orleans or Carolina or both

New Orleans

Clinches #2 Seed with win over Tampa Bay and Carolina Loss to Atlanta

 

Clinches #5 Seed with win over Tampa Bay, or

A tie with Tampa Bay and an Arizona loss or tie with San Francisco, or

An Arizona loss to San Francisco

 

Clinches #6 Seed with a loss to Tampa Bay and a San Francisco win or tie over Arizona, or

A Tie with Tampa Bay and a San Francisco tie with Arizona (holds tiebreaker over Arizona based on head-to-head win)

Arizona

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over San Francisco and a New Orleans loss or tie with Tampa Bay, or

A Tie with San Francisco, and a New Orleans loss to Tampa Bay

Dallas

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Philadelphia and a Chicago loss or tie with Green Bay

Clinches #4 Seed with a win over Philadelphia and a Chicago win over Green Bay (loses tiebreaker to Chicago based on head-to-head loss)

Green Bay

Clinches #4 Seed with a win over Chicago

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Philadelphia Eagles	101.8	103.0	102.1
Dallas Cowboys	97.7	97.8	96.9
New York Giants	95.6	95.7	95.3
Washington Redskins	92.2	92.2	91.6
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Detroit Lions	100.3	100.3	99.9
Chicago Bears	98.8	98.4	98.3
Green Bay Packers	98.1	97.3	97.4
Minnesota Vikings	95.5	95.2	95.1
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans Saints	105.5	106.1	106.2
Carolina Panthers	105.5	105.8	105.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	96.9	96.6	96.9
Atlanta Falcons	95.2	94.6	94.4
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco 49ers	110.0	110.6	110.4
Seattle Seahawks	109.5	109.9	109.8
Arizona Cardinals	103.9	104.9	104.3
St. Louis Rams	100.7	101.7	101.4
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England Patriots	107.1	105.5	106.9
Miami Dolphins	100.0	99.2	99.9
Buffalo Bills	97.9	97.6	98.3
New York Jets	92.8	92.0	93.0
North	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Cincinnati Bengals	108.1	108.5	108.4
Baltimore Ravens	100.3	100.0	100.3
Pittsburgh Steelers	99.9	99.9	100.2
Cleveland Browns	94.3	93.7	93.8
South	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis Colts	102.9	103.3	103.2
Tennessee Titans	97.4	97.5	97.4
Houston Texans	92.6	91.7	92.4
Jacksonville Jaguars	90.8	90.6	90.8
West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Denver Broncos	110.0	110.5	110.4
San Diego Chargers	103.6	104.0	103.6
Kansas City Chiefs	103.4	104.1	103.7
Oakland Raiders	91.7	91.8	91.9

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias
Atlanta	Carolina	-8.3	-9.2	-9.4
Chicago	Green Bay	3.7	4.1	3.9
Cincinnati	Baltimore	10.8	11.5	11.1
Dallas	Philadelphia	-1.1	-2.2	-2.2
Tennessee	Houston	6.8	7.8	7.0
Indianapolis	Jacksonville	14.1	14.7	14.4
Pittsburgh	Cleveland	7.6	8.2	8.4
Miami	N Y Jets	10.2	10.2	9.9
Minnesota	Detroit	-2.3	-2.6	-2.3
New England	Buffalo	12.2	10.9	11.6
New Orleans	Tampa Bay	11.6	12.5	12.3
N Y Giants	Washington	5.9	6.0	6.2
Arizona	San Francisco	-3.1	-2.7	-3.1
San Diego	Kansas City	3.2	2.9	2.9
Seattle	St. Louis	11.3	10.7	10.9
Oakland	Denver	-15.3	-15.7	-15.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Playoff Projections

A F C

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Cincinnati

4. Indianapolis

5. Kansas City

6. Miami

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. Carolina

3. Philadelphia

4. Chicago

5. San Francisco

6. New Orleans

 

Wildcard Round

Cincinnati over Miami

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over New Orleans

San Francisco over Chicago

 

Divisional Round

Denver over Kansas City

New England over Cincinnati

Seattle over San Francisco

Philadelphia over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

New England over Denver

Philadelphia over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate Ratings Week 17 NFL Previews: December 28, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 17

Still Much To Be Decided

 

It seems like the end of the NFL season has come quickly this year.  Maybe it seems that way because last season coincided with the Presidential election that seemed to last forever.

 

Unfortunately, the end of this season coincides with too many holiday plans, and this preview will be abbreviated.  I will list all the playoff possibilities in this article in addition to the standings, ratings, and games.  I won’t list an in-depth game by game preview or make picks due to those time limitations.

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings                           NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA New York 12 – 3 – 0 408 274 108.60 107.65 107.11 2 Dallas 9 – 6 – 0 356 321 102.49 103.67 103.29 2 Philadelphia 8 – 6 – 1 372 283 106.53 105.48 103.26 2 Washington 8 – 7 – 0 241 269 98.55 99.31 99.83 2                           NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Minnesota 9 – 6 – 0 359 314 104.06 103.81 103.64 2 Chicago 9 – 6 – 0 351 319 102.96 101.42 102.34 2 Green Bay 5 – 10 – 0 388 359 103.77 101.48 98.91 2 Detroit 0 – 15 – 0 247 486 86.86 88.16 86.27 3                           NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Carolina 11 – 4 – 0 381 298 106.14 105.11 106.11 2 Atlanta 10 – 5 – 0 360 298 105.19 104.46 105.79 2 Tampa Bay 9 – 6 – 0 337 292 104.06 102.01 102.68 2 New Orleans 8 – 7 – 0 432 360 104.61 104.52 102.09 2                           NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Arizona 8 – 7 – 0 393 405 97.60 97.33 99.25 3 San Francisco 6 – 9 – 0 312 357 94.23 95.55 96.42 3 Seattle 4 – 11 – 0 273 358 92.89 94.36 94.11 3 St. Louis 2 – 13 – 0 205 434 84.00 86.47 86.56 2                           AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Miami 10 – 5 – 0 321 300 98.73 99.42 102.29 2 New England 10 – 5 – 0 397 309 103.21 104.76 105.46 2 New York 9 – 6 – 0 388 332 100.62 99.48 100.88 2 Buffalo 7 – 8 – 0 336 329 96.92 96.82 98.41 3                           AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Pittsburgh 11 – 4 – 0 316 223 108.32 107.71 106.47 2 Baltimore 10 – 5 – 0 358 237 108.82 107.90 106.01 3 Cleveland 4 – 11 – 0 232 319 95.34 94.57 92.24 2 Cincinnati 3 – 11 – 1 188 358 92.20 93.93 93.29 2                           AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Tennessee 13 – 2 – 0 375 211 110.38 109.14 108.97 2 Indianapolis 11 – 4 – 0 354 298 104.55 104.95 105.76 2 Houston 7 – 8 – 0 335 370 98.63 98.85 99.16 3 Jacksonville 5 – 10 – 0 295 340 97.86 97.78 97.59 3                           AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp Rating Mean Biased HTA Denver 8 – 7 – 0 349 396 95.68 96.24 98.05 2 San Diego 7 – 8 – 0 387 326 103.66 103.18 102.23 2 Oakland 4 – 11 – 0 232 364 91.06 92.37 93.35 2 Kansas City 2 – 13 – 0 285 424 91.49 92.05 92.17 2

 

 The Playoffs Scenarios

NFC Already in Playoffs

New York Giants: Clinched #1 Seed & home field advantage

Carolina: Clinched a playoff spot

Atlanta: Clinched a playoff spot

Arizona: Clinched West Division and will play on first weekend of the playoffs

 

NFC Scenarios

NFC EAST

DALLAS

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a Chicago loss or tie and a Tampa Bay loss

C. A tie plus a Minnesota loss or tie and a Tampa Bay loss

D. A tie plus a Chicago loss and a Tampa Bay tie

E. A tie plus a Minnesota loss and a Tampa Bay tie

 

PHILADELPHIA

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus losses by Tampa Bay and Minnesota

B. A win plus losses by Tampa Bay and Chicago

 

NFC NORTH

MINNESOTA

Clinches Division with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus Chicago loss or tie

C. A Chicago loss

 

CHICAGO

Clinches Division with:

A. A win plus a Minnesota loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Minnesota loss

 

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Minnesota win and losses or ties by both Dallas and Tampa Bay

B. A tie plus losses by both Dallas and Tampa Bay

 

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA has already clinched a playoff spot

Clinches Division and First Round Bye with:

A. A win plus a Carolina loss

 

CAROLINA has already clinched a playoff spot

Clinches Division and First Round Bye with:

A. A win or tie

B. An Atlanta loss or tie

 

TAMPA BAY

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Dallas loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Dallas loss and Minnesota loss or tie

C. A tie plus a Dallas loss and a Chicago loss or tie

D. A tie plus a Dallas tie and a Minnesota tie and a Chicago win or tie

E. A tie plus a Dallas tie and a Chicago tie and a Minnesota win or tie

 

AFC Already in Playoffs

Tennessee: Clinched #1 seed & home field advantage

Pittsburgh: Clinched division & first round bye

 

AFC Scenarios

AFC EAST

The AFC East Division Winner will play on the first weekend of the playoffs

 

MIAMI

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a New England loss or tie

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A tie plus a Baltimore loss

 

NEW ENGLAND

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win plus a Miami loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Miami loss

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Baltimore loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Baltimore loss

 

NEW YORK JETS

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win plus a New England loss

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Baltimore loss

 

AFC NORTH

(Pittsburgh has already won the division and secured a first-round bye as the #2 seed)

 

BALTIMORE

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a Miami loss or tie

C. A tie plus a New England loss or tie

D. A New England loss

 

AFC SOUTH

Tennessee has clinched division and the #1 seed, while Indianapolis has clinched a Wildcard

 

AFC WEST

DENVER plays At SAN DIEGO.  The winner of this game wins the Division.  It the game ends in a tie, then Denver wins the Division.  The Division winner will play on the first weekend of the playoffs.

 

If The Season Ended Today

NFC Seedings

1. New York Giants

2. Carolina

3. Minnesota

4. Arizona

5. Atlanta

6. Dallas

 

Dallas would play at Minnesota and Atlanta would play at Arizona.  The higher remaining seed would then play at Carolina and the weaker remaining seed would play at the New York Giants

 

AFC Seedings

1. Tennessee

2. Pittsburgh

3. Miami

4. Denver

5. Indianapolis

6. Baltimore

 

Baltimore would play at Miami and Indianapolis would play at Denver.  The higher remaining seed would then play at Pittsburgh and the weaker remaining seed would play at Tennessee

 

Here Is My Best Guess As To How The Season Will End

 

In the NFC, Philadelphia will take advantage of home field advantage and a revenge factor and defeat Dallas.

 

Atlanta will dismiss St. Louis with ease.

 

Carolina will stumble at New Orleans as Drew Brees finishes off one of the best passing seasons ever.

 

Tampa Bay handles Oakland at home but not by much.

 

Minnesota struggles but hangs up to beat the New York Giants after the Giants pull their starters in the second half.

 

Chicago falls at Houston as the Texans finish 8-8.

 

That would leave Atlanta and Minnesota as division champions and Tampa Bay as the final Wildcard.  Dallas, Philadelphia, and Chicago would be eliminated.

 

In the AFC, Miami will take advantage of Brett Favre’s shoulder problems and take out the Jets at the Meadowlands.

 

New England will go to Buffalo and put up some big numbers in a win, looking like the true dark horse Super Bowl contender (but only until the Baltimore game ends).

 

Baltimore will methodically defeat Jacksonville in a rough game and ruin the weekend for fans in New England.

 

San Diego will take some revenge against Denver and claim the West Division title.

 

That would leave Miami and San Diego as division champions and Baltimore as the final Wildcard team.

 

Note: Weather forecasts and odds are those as of Friday, December 26, 2008, 12 Noon EST

 

You will now see multiple numbers given in the Vegas line and Ov/Un.  I am listing the range given by the different books in Vegas and offshore as of 12 Noon EST Friday, so you can use the one that best meets your needs.  Remember though, if you use parlays and teasers, you must use the same source.  You cannot play a parlay using the odds from different books.  There are no picks this week due to lack of time to study the games..

 

I leave it to you to find out the book in question regarding the spreads.  Generally, some of the big ones in Vegas are: Hilton, Caesar’s-Harrah’s, MGM Mirage, Stations, Leroy’s, Wynn, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, and The Palms.  Some of the large offshore books include: BetUs, Bodog, Sportsbook, BetJamaica, and Pinnacle.

 

Average Simulation Scores for each game are now rounded to nearest whole number.

 

Note: The ratings and the simulations do not take into account the fact that some teams will not play their regulars much if at all this week.

 

NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings-Week 17

 

Kansas City (2-13-0) at Cincinnati (3-11-1)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, strong wind, temperature in the mid 40’s

 

PiRate:                Cincinnati by 3               

Mean:                  Cincinnati by 4

Bias:                    Cincinnati by 3

 

Vegas:               Cincinnati by 2.5 to 3

Ov/Un:               37.5 to 38.5

 

100 Sims:           Cincinnati 78  Kansas City 22

Avg Sim Score:  Cincinnati 29  Kansas City 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Cincinnati 40  Kansas City 21

Outlier 1b Sim:  Kansas City 24  Cincinnati 14

 

 

St. Louis (2-13-0) at Atlanta (10-5-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Atlanta by 23

Mean:                  Atlanta by 20

Bias:                    Atlanta by 21

 

Vegas:               14 to 15.5  

Ov/Un:               44 to 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Atlanta 98  St. Louis 2

Avg Sim Score:  Atlanta 33  St. Louis 11

Outlier 1a Sim:  Atlanta 52  St. Louis 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  St. Louis 24  Atlanta 21

 

 

New England (10-5-0) at Buffalo (7-8-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain Showers, Very Strong Wind, Unseasonably mild temperature near 50

 

PiRate:                New England by 8

Mean:                  New England by 10

Bias:                    New England by 9

 

Vegas:               6 to 7   

Ov/Un:               40 to 41

 

100 Sims:           New England 73  Buffalo 27

Avg Sim Score:  New England 34  Buffalo 28

Outlier 1a Sim:  New England 45  Buffalo 23

Outlier 1b Sim:  Buffalo 31  New England 20

 

 

Detroit (0-15-0) at Green Bay (5-10-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Light snow ending after game starts, moderate wind, temperature in low 20’s

 

PiRate:                Green Bay by 19

Mean:                  Green Bay by 15

Bias:                    Green Bay by 15

 

Vegas:               Green Bay by 10 to 11.5      

Ov/Un:               42.5 to 43

 

100 Sims:           Green Bay 64  Detroit 35  1 Tie

Avg Sim Score:  Green Bay 33  Detroit 29

Outlier 1a Sim:  Green Bay 24  Detroit 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  Detroit 38  Green Bay 30

 

 

Tennessee (13-2-0) at Indianapolis (11-4-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome should be closed

 

PiRate:                Tennessee by 4

Mean:                  Tennessee by 2

Bias:                    Tennessee by 1

 

Vegas:                Tennessee by 3

Ov/Un:               38 to 38.5

 

100 Sims:           Indianapolis 58  Tennessee 42

Avg Sim Score:  Indianapolis 25  Tennessee 23

Outlier 1a Sim:  Indianapolis 28  Tennessee 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  Tennessee 24  Indianapolis 10

 

 

Chicago (9-6-0) at Houston (7-8-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, light wind, temperature around 60

 

PiRate:                Chicago by 1

Mean:                  Tossup

Bias:                    Tossup

 

Vegas:               Houston by 2.5 to 3  

Ov/Un:               46 to 46.5

 

100 Sims:           Houston 51  Chicago 49

Avg Sim Score:  Houston 27  Chicago 27

Outlier 1a Sim:  Houston 37  Chicago 20

Outlier 1b Sim:  Chicago 32  Houston 17

 

 

Oakland (4-11-0) at Tampa Bay (9-6-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature near 80

 

PiRate:                Tampa Bay by 15

Mean:                  Tampa Bay by 12

Bias:                    Tampa Bay by 11

 

Vegas:               Tampa Bay by 12.5 to 14

Ov/Un:               39 to 39.5

 

100 Sims:           Tampa Bay 89  Oakland 11

Avg Sim Score:  Tampa Bay 26  Oakland 12

Outlier 1a Sim:  Tampa Bay 38  Oakland 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Oakland 27  Tampa Bay 21

 

 

Cleveland (4-11-0) at Pittsburgh (11-4-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain showers, strong wind, temperature in low to mid 50’s

 

PiRate:                Pittsburgh by 15

Mean:                 Pittsburgh by 15

Bias:                    Pittsburgh by 16

 

Vegas:                Pittsburgh by 10.5 to 11.5

Ov/Un:               31.5 to 33

 

100 Sims:           Pittsburgh 97  Cleveland 3

Avg Sim Score:  Pittsburgh 29  Cleveland 11

Outlier 1a Sim:  Pittsburgh 49  Cleveland 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cleveland 13  Pittsburgh 10 (2 other 3-point wins)

 

 

New York Giants (12-3-0) at Minnesota (9-6-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Giants by 3

Mean:                 Giants by 2

Bias:                    Giants by 1

 

Vegas:                Minnesota by 7 to 7.5

Ov/Un:               42

 

100 Sims:           Giants 54  Minnesota 46

Avg Sim Score:  Giants 23  Minnesota 20

Outlier 1a Sim:  Giants 31  Minnesota 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Minnesota 27  Giants 17

 

 

Carolina (11-4-0) at New Orleans (8-7-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Tossup

Mean:                  New Orleans by 1

Bias:                    Carolina by2

 

Vegas:               Carolina by 2.5 to 3

Ov/Un:               51.5 to 52.5

 

100 Sims:           New Orleans 55  Carolina 45

Avg Sim Score:  New Orleans 33  Carolina 32

Outlier 1a Sim:  New Orleans 44  Carolina 27

Outlier 1b Sim:  Carolina 35  New Orleans 20

 

 

Jacksonville (5-10-0) at Baltimore (10-5-0)

Time:           4:15PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping from around 60 to the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:                Baltimore by 14

Mean:                 Baltimore by 13

Bias:                   Baltimore by 11

 

Vegas:               Baltimore by 12 to 13.5

Ov/Un:               36 to 36.5

 

100 Sims:           Baltimore 83  Jacksonville 16  1 Tie

Avg Sim Score:  Baltimore 25  Jacksonville 13

Outlier 1a Sim:  Baltimore 24  Jacksonville 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jacksonville 20  Baltimore 14

 

 

Dallas (9-6-0) at Philadelphia (8-6-1)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Rain showers, moderate wind, temperature falling through the 50’s

 

PiRate:                Philadelphia by 6

Mean:                 Philadelphia by 4

Bias:                   Philadelphia by 2

 

Vegas:                Philadelphia by 0 to 2

Ov/Un:               42.5 to 43

 

100 Sims:           Philadelphia 61  Dallas 39

Avg Sim Score:  Philadelphia 27  Dallas 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Philadelphia 41  Dallas 24

Outlier 1b Sim:  Dallas 34  Philadelphia 24

 

 

Miami (10-5-0) at New York Jets (9-6-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping from the mid 50’s to mid 40’s

 

PiRate:                Jets by 4

Mean:                 Jets by 2

Bias:                   Jets by 1

 

Vegas:                Jets by 2 to 3   

Ov/Un:               41.5 to 42.5

 

100 Sims:           Miami 50  Jets 50

Avg Sim Score:  Miami 25  Jets 25

Outlier 1a Sim:  Miami 27  Jets 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jets 20  Miami 12

 

 

Seattle (4-11-0) at Arizona (8-7-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in low 60’s

 

PiRate:                Arizona by 8

Mean:                  Arizona by 6

Bias:                    Arizona by 8

 

Vegas:               Arizona by 6 to 6.5

Ov/Un:               45 to 46

 

100 Sims:           Arizona 83  Seattle 17

Avg Sim Score:  Arizona 33  Seattle 23

Outlier 1a Sim:  Arizona 38  Seattle 16

Outlier 1b Sim:  Seattle 24  Arizona 20

 

 

Washington (8-7-0) at San Francisco (6-9-0)

Time:           4:15PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Showers possible, light wind, temperature in the mid 50’s

                    

PiRate:                Washington by 1

Mean:                  Washington by 1

Bias:                    Tossup

 

Vegas:               San Francisco by 3

Ov/Un:               37 to 37.5

 

100 Sims:           San Francisco 56  Washington 44

Avg Sim Score:  San Francisco 23  Washington 21

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Francisco 27  Washington 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Washington 21  San Francisco 13

 

 

Denver (8-7-0) at San Diego (7-8-0)

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature falling from mid to low 60’s

 

PiRate:                San Diego by 10

Mean:                  San Diego by   9

Bias:                    San Diego by   6

 

Vegas:                San Diego by 7.5 to 9.5

Ov/Un:               50 to 51

 

100 Sims:           San Diego 59  Denver 41

Avg Sim Score:  San Diego 34  Denver 30

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Diego 51  Denver 27

Outlier 1b Sim:  Denver 45  San Diego 31