The Pi-Rate Ratings

November 22, 2015

College Football Preview: November 24-28, 2015

Need Nine More
As of today, there are 71 bowl eligible teams with nine more needed to avoid having to invite a team with a losing record. Good news, because there are 18 teams that still have a chance to become bowl eligible, so just half of these teams need to get to six wins. At the present time, we project 82 teams to become bowl eligible, meaning two teams will not get invitations.

Here is a breakdown by conference.

POWER 5 CONFERENCES
Atlantic Coast
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 7:45 PM or 8:00 PM Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC on ABC or ESPN

Atlantic Division Champion: Clemson

Coastal Division Champion: North Carolina

Bowl Eligible: 8 (9)
Clemson, Duke, Florida St., Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina St., Pittsburgh, (Notre Dame)

Still Alive
Virginia Tech 5-6 must defeat Virginia this week
Note: Notre Dame can receive any ACC Bowl, and they can jump ahead of any ACC team with one more win than they have.

Big 12
No Championship Game
Championship Scenarios
Oklahoma controls its own destiny. If they beat Oklahoma St., the Sooners are champs.
Oklahoma State can win title if TCU beats Baylor, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma.
Baylor can win title if they beat TCU and Texas and Oklahoma St. beats Oklahoma.

Bowl Eligible: 6
Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia

Still Alive
Kansas St. 4-6 must beat Kansas and West Virginia
Texas 4-6 must beat Texas Tech and Baylor

Big Ten
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 8:15 PM Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN on Fox Sports

East Division Scenarios
Michigan St. controls its own destiny. If they beat Penn St., the Spartans are division champions
If Michigan St. loses, the Ohio St.-Michigan winner wins the division title

West Division Champion: Iowa

Bowl Eligible: 7
Iowa, Michigan, Michigan St., Northwestern, Ohio St., Penn St., Wisconsin

Still Alive
Illinois 5-6 must beat Northwestern
Indiana 5-6 must beat Purdue
Minnesota 5-6 must beat Wisconsin
Nebraska 5-6 must beat Iowa

Pac-12
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 7:45 PM or 8:00 PM Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA on ABC or ESPN

North Division Champion: Stanford
South Division Champion: UCLA-USC winner

Bowl Eligible: 9
Arizona, Arizona St., California, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington St.

Still Alive
Washington 5-6 must beat Washington St.

Southeastern
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 4:00 PM Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA on CBS

East Division Champion: Florida

West Division Champion Scenarios
Alabama controls its own destiny. If they beat Auburn, they are West Division champions
Ole Miss can win the division if they beat Mississippi St., and Auburn beats Alabama

Bowl Eligible: 10
Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi St., Tennessee, Texas A&M

Still Alive
Kentucky 5-6 must beat Louisville
Missouri 5-6 must beat Arkansas

GROUP OF 5 CONFERENCES
American Athletic
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 12:00 Noon at West Division Champion on ABC or ESPN

East Division Scenarios
Temple controls their own destiny. If they beat Connecticut, the Owls are in the AAC Championship Game.
If South Florida beats Central Florida and Temple loses, then USF is division champ.
West Division Champion: Houston-Navy winner will host Championship Game

Bowl Eligible: 7
Cincinnati, Connecticut, Houston, Memphis, Navy, South Florida, Temple

Still Alive
East Carolina 5-6 must beat Cincinnati
Tulsa 5-6 must beat Tulane

Conference USA
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 12:00 Noon at home stadium of team with the better record, on ESPN2

East Division Champion: Western Kentucky-Marshall winner

West Division Champion: Louisiana Tech-Southern Miss. winner

Bowl Eligible: 5
Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss., Western Kentucky

Still Alive
Old Dominion 5-6 must beat Florida Atlantic

Independents
Notre Dame is bowl eligible and figures in the ACC bowls
BYU is bowl eligible and will play in the Las Vegas or Hawaii Bowl
Army is not bowl eligible, opening up an at-large spot in the Poinsettia Bowl

Mid-American
Championship Game: Friday, December 4, 8:00 PM Ford Field, Detroit, MI on ESPN2

East Division Champion: Bowling Green

West Division Scenarios
Northern Illinois controls its own destiny. If the Broncos beat Ohio, they are division champs.
Toledo wins the division title if they beat Western Michigan, and Ohio beats Northern Illinois.

Bowl Eligible: 7
Akron, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ohio, Toledo, Western Michigan

Still Alive
Buffalo 5-6 must beat Massachusetts

Mountain West
Championship Game: Saturday, December 5, 7:30 PM at Air Force on ESPN2

Mountain Division Champion: Air Force

West Division Champion: San Diego St.

Bowl Eligible: 7
Air Force, Boise St., Colorado St., New Mexico, Nevada, San Diego St., Utah St.

Still Alive
San Jose St. 5-6 must beat Boise St.

Sun Belt
No Championship Game

Championship Scenarios
Arkansas St. 6-0 controls its own destiny and has New Mexico St. and Texas St. remaining
Appalachian St. 5-1 wins the SBC if Arkansas St. loses both games, and Appy beats ULL and South Alabama
Georgia Southern 5-1 wins the SBC if Arkansas St. loses both games, Appy St. loses one game, and GSU beats South Alabama and Georgia St.

Bowl Eligible: 3
Appalachian St., Arkansas St., Georgia Southern

Still Alive
Georgia St. 4-6 must beat Troy and Georgia Southern
UL-Lafayette 4-6 must beat Appalachian St. and Troy
South Alabama 5-5 must beat either Georgia Southern or Appalachian St.

This Week’s Ratings

PiRate Ratings
# Team PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 Alabama 131.7 129.4 131.8 131.0
2 Oklahoma 127.7 124.0 128.4 126.7
3 Baylor 127.3 123.6 127.7 126.2
4 Ohio St. 126.7 121.9 127.0 125.2
5 Stanford 123.4 120.6 123.4 122.5
6 North Carolina 121.8 122.2 122.2 122.1
7 Ole Miss 124.0 119.2 122.6 121.9
8 Clemson 121.5 122.5 121.4 121.8
9 TCU 123.0 115.3 123.7 120.7
10 Notre Dame 121.0 118.6 120.5 120.0
11 UCLA 121.9 116.2 120.8 119.6
12 Arkansas 120.5 115.6 119.7 118.6
13 Tennessee 119.8 115.8 119.7 118.4
14 Oregon 120.1 114.8 120.3 118.4
15 USC 119.6 115.0 118.7 117.8
16 LSU 119.3 115.6 118.4 117.8
17 Michigan 117.8 115.4 117.8 117.0
18 Utah 119.3 113.6 117.8 116.9
19 Oklahoma St. 117.6 114.4 117.2 116.4
20 Mississippi St. 116.9 113.8 117.5 116.1
21 Michigan St. 117.1 114.2 116.8 116.0
22 Florida 116.7 113.4 116.7 115.6
23 Florida St. 115.2 116.5 114.8 115.5
24 Texas A&M 116.9 113.7 115.4 115.3
25 Georgia 116.1 110.8 115.4 114.1
26 West Virginia 115.2 109.7 114.4 113.1
27 California 115.0 109.7 114.1 112.9
28 Arizona St. 114.4 109.5 114.0 112.6
29 Washington 113.4 110.1 113.3 112.3
30 Auburn 113.6 110.4 112.3 112.1
31 Iowa 110.9 112.7 111.4 111.7
32 Virginia Tech 110.8 110.7 111.1 110.9
33 Wisconsin 111.0 110.3 109.5 110.3
34 Houston 107.7 113.1 109.1 110.0
35 Washington St. 110.5 107.1 111.3 109.6
36 Navy 107.5 111.6 109.2 109.4
37 North Carolina St. 109.4 110.6 107.9 109.3
38 Western Kentucky 108.9 109.0 109.9 109.3
39 Pittsburgh 108.6 109.6 109.5 109.2
40 Bowling Green 106.6 111.2 109.5 109.1
41 Nebraska 109.1 107.4 108.6 108.4
42 San Diego St. 106.1 110.7 108.2 108.3
43 Temple 107.1 109.3 108.3 108.2
44 Georgia Tech 109.1 106.9 107.5 107.8
45 BYU 107.3 107.2 107.9 107.5
46 Louisville 107.0 108.9 106.4 107.4
47 Missouri 108.2 104.7 107.2 106.7
48 Toledo 105.4 106.9 107.1 106.5
49 Penn St. 106.3 106.1 105.9 106.1
50 Boise St. 107.0 104.0 106.5 105.8
51 Northwestern 105.6 105.9 105.7 105.7
52 Arizona 107.9 102.4 106.8 105.7
53 Memphis 105.2 106.3 105.5 105.7
54 Minnesota 105.7 104.5 105.5 105.2
55 South Carolina 106.9 103.3 105.4 105.2
56 Texas Tech 107.9 99.7 107.7 105.1
57 Miami 104.7 104.9 105.2 104.9
58 Illinois 104.9 102.6 103.7 103.7
59 Texas 104.9 101.1 104.7 103.6
60 Cincinnati 102.0 103.9 103.3 103.1
61 Duke 103.0 102.7 102.7 102.8
62 South Florida 100.3 106.1 101.4 102.6
63 Colorado 104.6 99.7 102.7 102.3
64 Virginia 102.6 101.5 102.8 102.3
65 Western Michigan 101.2 102.2 102.1 101.8
66 Louisiana Tech 101.3 101.6 102.1 101.7
67 Kansas St. 105.1 95.6 104.1 101.6
68 Boston College 100.8 103.3 99.5 101.2
69 Air Force 99.8 103.5 100.1 101.1
70 Kentucky 102.8 99.0 101.6 101.1
71 Georgia Southern 99.7 102.1 101.2 101.0
72 Northern Illinois 98.2 102.3 99.6 100.0
73 Iowa St. 100.8 97.1 101.1 99.7
74 Indiana 99.6 99.7 99.5 99.6
75 Vanderbilt 100.5 96.4 99.9 98.9
76 Marshall 98.4 99.3 98.6 98.8
77 Appalachian St. 96.9 100.2 98.9 98.7
78 Utah St. 98.4 98.9 97.4 98.2
79 Wake Forest 96.5 99.6 96.2 97.4
80 Southern Mississippi 95.4 98.0 96.4 96.6
81 East Carolina 94.7 98.5 95.6 96.3
82 Purdue 96.5 95.7 95.2 95.8
83 Syracuse 94.6 97.2 94.3 95.4
84 Arkansas St. 93.9 95.1 95.5 94.8
85 Middle Tennessee 94.6 93.9 94.4 94.3
86 Colorado St. 93.6 94.0 93.5 93.7
87 Connecticut 91.3 96.5 93.1 93.6
88 San Jose St. 92.5 95.3 92.9 93.6
89 Maryland 94.0 92.7 93.7 93.5
90 Central Michigan 91.1 95.2 93.3 93.2
91 Rutgers 94.0 91.5 91.9 92.5
92 Tulsa 89.4 93.4 90.3 91.0
93 Nevada 89.6 93.4 89.7 90.9
94 New Mexico 90.9 91.3 89.8 90.7
95 Ohio 87.2 91.3 88.8 89.1
96 Akron 85.0 91.0 87.1 87.7
97 SMU 85.3 88.9 84.9 86.4
98 Oregon St. 87.7 84.3 85.6 85.9
99 Florida Atlantic 84.2 87.6 85.1 85.6
100 Florida International 83.8 86.2 83.9 84.6
101 Buffalo 81.5 87.1 82.6 83.7
102 Massachusetts 82.2 85.3 82.5 83.3
103 UNLV 82.3 84.2 82.9 83.1
104 Tulane 82.6 85.2 81.5 83.1
105 Troy 81.9 83.4 82.9 82.7
106 Georgia St. 80.5 82.0 81.5 81.3
107 Army 78.1 85.6 79.4 81.0
108 Fresno St. 80.7 83.5 78.5 80.9
109 Ball St. 80.0 82.2 80.4 80.9
110 UL-Lafayette 80.2 82.6 79.8 80.9
111 UT-San Antonio 78.8 81.5 79.4 79.9
112 Wyoming 79.6 81.0 78.2 79.6
113 Kent St. 78.2 80.9 78.7 79.3
114 UTEP 78.4 81.0 78.2 79.2
115 Rice 78.2 80.9 77.6 78.9
116 Hawaii 78.2 79.8 76.9 78.3
117 Old Dominion 76.6 80.5 76.2 77.8
118 Central Florida 76.7 79.5 76.6 77.6
119 South Alabama 75.4 80.5 76.3 77.4
120 Miami (O) 75.4 80.3 76.3 77.3
121 Idaho 73.8 78.8 75.0 75.9
122 Texas St. 74.5 77.2 74.5 75.4
123 New Mexico St. 73.2 75.3 73.8 74.1
124 North Texas 72.4 75.8 72.2 73.5
125 Kansas 75.7 69.3 73.4 72.8
126 Eastern Michigan 70.7 76.6 70.1 72.5
127 UL-Monroe 70.8 69.7 70.1 70.2
128 Charlotte 67.9 69.6 67.8 68.4

 

PiRate Retrodictive
# Team
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Oklahoma
4 Ohio St.
5 Notre Dame
6 Iowa
7 Baylor
8 Michigan St.
9 Stanford
10 Oklahoma St.
11 Michigan
12 TCU
13 Florida
14 North Carolina
15 Ole Miss
16 Florida St.
17 Navy
18 Mississippi St.
19 Northwestern
20 Oregon
21 Utah
22 LSU
23 USC
24 UCLA
25 Toledo
26 Tennessee
27 Houston
28 Pittsburgh
29 Wisconsin
30 Texas A&M
31 Washington St.
32 Arkansas
33 Georgia
34 West Virginia
35 Temple
36 Memphis
37 California
38 BYU
39 Penn St.
40 Western Kentucky
41 Bowling Green
42 Texas Tech
43 Auburn
44 South Florida
45 Miami (Fla)
46 Washington
47 North Carolina St.
48 Arizona St.
49 Appalachian St.
50 San Diego St.
51 Northern Illinois
52 Louisville
53 Georgia Southern
54 Nebraska
55 Air Force
56 Virginia Tech
57 Minnesota
58 Louisiana Tech
59 Marshall
60 Texas
61 Indiana
62 Boise St.
63 Kansas St.
64 Duke
65 Southern Miss.
66 Central Michigan
67 Cincinnati
68 Illinois
69 Arkansas St.
70 Arizona
71 Connecticut
72 Virginia
73 Western Michigan
74 Georgia Tech
75 Utah St.
76 Kentucky
77 Iowa St.
78 Ohio
79 Tulsa
80 Missouri
81 Vanderbilt
82 East Carolina
83 South Carolina
84 Rutgers
85 Middle Tennessee
86 Syracuse
87 Maryland
88 San Jose St.
89 Buffalo
90 Boston College
91 Colorado
92 Akron
93 Colorado St.
94 Wake Forest
95 Nevada
96 Troy
97 New Mexico
98 Purdue
99 South Alabama
100 Oregon St.
101 Georgia St.
102 SMU
103 Florida Int’l.
104 Old Dominion
105 Louisiana-Lafayette
106 UNLV
107 Tulane
108 Ball St.
109 Rice
110 Florida Atlantic
111 UTSA
112 Idaho
113 New Mexico St.
114 Texas St.
115 Kent St.
116 Fresno St.
117 Kansas
118 Massachusetts
119 UTEP
120 Miami (O)
121 Army
122 Hawaii
123 Wyoming
124 Louisiana-Monroe
125 North Texas
126 Charlotte
127 Eastern Michigan
128 Central Florida

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

American Athletic Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Temple 6-1 9-2 107.1 109.3 108.3 108.2
Cincinnati 3-4 6-5 102.0 103.9 103.3 103.1
South Florida 5-2 7-4 100.3 106.1 101.4 102.6
East Carolina 3-4 5-6 94.7 98.5 95.6 96.3
Connecticut 4-3 6-5 91.3 96.5 93.1 93.6
Central Florida 0-7 0-11 76.7 79.5 76.6 77.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Houston 6-1 10-1 107.7 113.1 109.1 110.0
Navy 7-0 9-1 107.5 111.6 109.2 109.4
Memphis 4-3 8-3 105.2 106.3 105.5 105.7
Tulsa 2-5 5-6 89.4 93.4 90.3 91.0
SMU 1-6 2-9 85.3 88.9 84.9 86.4
Tulane 1-6 3-8 82.6 85.2 81.5 83.1
             
AAC Averages     95.8 99.4 96.6 97.2
             
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Clemson 8-0 11-0 121.5 122.5 121.4 121.8
Florida St. 6-2 9-2 115.2 116.5 114.8 115.5
North Carolina St. 3-4 7-4 109.4 110.6 107.9 109.3
Louisville 5-3 6-5 107.0 108.9 106.4 107.4
Boston College 0-7 3-8 100.8 103.3 99.5 101.2
Wake Forest 1-6 3-8 96.5 99.6 96.2 97.4
Syracuse 1-6 3-8 94.6 97.2 94.3 95.4
             
Coastal Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
North Carolina 7-0 10-1 121.8 122.2 122.2 122.1
Virginia Tech 3-4 5-6 110.8 110.7 111.1 110.9
Pittsburgh 6-1 8-3 108.6 109.6 109.5 109.2
Georgia Tech 1-7 3-8 109.1 106.9 107.5 107.8
Miami 4-3 7-4 104.7 104.9 105.2 104.9
Duke 3-4 6-5 103.0 102.7 102.7 102.8
Virginia 3-4 4-7 102.6 101.5 102.8 102.3
             
ACC Averages     107.5 108.4 107.3 107.7
             
Big 12 Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Oklahoma 7-1 10-1 127.7 124.0 128.4 126.7
Baylor 6-1 9-1 127.3 123.6 127.7 126.2
TCU 6-2 9-2 123.0 115.3 123.7 120.7
Oklahoma St. 7-1 10-1 117.6 114.4 117.2 116.4
West Virginia 3-4 6-4 115.2 109.7 114.4 113.1
Texas Tech 3-5 6-5 107.9 99.7 107.7 105.1
Texas 3-4 4-6 104.9 101.1 104.7 103.6
Kansas St. 1-6 4-6 105.1 95.6 104.1 101.6
Iowa St. 2-6 3-8 100.8 97.1 101.1 99.7
Kansas 0-8 0-11 75.7 69.3 73.4 72.8
             
Big 12 Averages     110.5 105.0 110.2 108.6
             
Big Ten Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Ohio St. 6-1 10-1 126.7 121.9 127.0 125.2
Michigan 6-1 9-2 117.8 115.4 117.8 117.0
Michigan St. 6-1 10-1 117.1 114.2 116.8 116.0
Penn St. 4-3 7-4 106.3 106.1 105.9 106.1
Indiana 1-6 5-6 99.6 99.7 99.5 99.6
Maryland 0-7 2-9 94.0 92.7 93.7 93.5
Rutgers 1-6 4-7 94.0 91.5 91.9 92.5
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Iowa 7-0 11-0 110.9 112.7 111.4 111.7
Wisconsin 5-2 8-3 111.0 110.3 109.5 110.3
Nebraska 3-4 5-6 109.1 107.4 108.6 108.4
Northwestern 5-2 9-2 105.6 105.9 105.7 105.7
Minnesota 2-5 5-6 105.7 104.5 105.5 105.2
Illinois 2-5 5-6 104.9 102.6 103.7 103.7
Purdue 1-6 2-9 96.5 95.7 95.2 95.8
             
Big Ten Averages     107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
             
Conference USA
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Western Kentucky 7-0 9-2 108.9 109.0 109.9 109.3
Marshall 6-1 9-2 98.4 99.3 98.6 98.8
Middle Tennessee 5-2 6-5 94.6 93.9 94.4 94.3
Florida Atlantic 2-5 2-9 84.2 87.6 85.1 85.6
Florida International 3-5 5-7 83.8 86.2 83.9 84.6
Old Dominion 3-4 5-6 76.6 80.5 76.2 77.8
Charlotte 0-7 2-9 67.9 69.6 67.8 68.4
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Louisiana Tech 6-1 8-3 101.3 101.6 102.1 101.7
Southern Mississippi 6-1 8-3 95.4 98.0 96.4 96.6
UT-San Antonio 3-4 3-8 78.8 81.5 79.4 79.9
UTEP 2-5 4-7 78.4 81.0 78.2 79.2
Rice 2-5 4-7 78.2 80.9 77.6 78.9
North Texas 1-6 1-10 72.4 75.8 72.2 73.5
             
CUSA Averages     86.1 88.1 86.3 86.8
             
FBS Independents
Team   Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Notre Dame   10-1 121.0 118.6 120.5 120.0
BYU   8-3 107.3 107.2 107.9 107.5
Army   2-9 78.1 85.6 79.4 81.0
             
Independents Averages     102.1 103.8 102.6 102.8
             
Mid-American Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Bowling Green 6-1 8-3 106.6 111.2 109.5 109.1
Ohio 4-3 7-4 87.2 91.3 88.8 89.1
Akron 4-3 6-5 85.0 91.0 87.1 87.7
Buffalo 3-4 5-6 81.5 87.1 82.6 83.7
Massachusetts 1-6 2-9 82.2 85.3 82.5 83.3
Kent St. 2-5 3-8 78.2 80.9 78.7 79.3
Miami (O) 2-6 3-9 75.4 80.3 76.3 77.3
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Toledo 6-1 9-1 105.4 106.9 107.1 106.5
Western Michigan 5-2 6-5 101.2 102.2 102.1 101.8
Northern Illinois 6-1 8-3 98.2 102.3 99.6 100.0
Central Michigan 5-2 6-5 91.1 95.2 93.3 93.2
Ball St. 2-5 3-8 80.0 82.2 80.4 80.9
Eastern Michigan 0-7 1-10 70.7 76.6 70.1 72.5
             
MAC Averages     87.9 91.7 89.1 89.6
             
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Boise St. 4-3 7-4 107.0 104.0 106.5 105.8
Air Force 6-1 8-3 99.8 103.5 100.1 101.1
Utah St. 5-3 6-5 98.4 98.9 97.4 98.2
Colorado St. 4-3 6-5 93.6 94.0 93.5 93.7
New Mexico 4-3 6-5 90.9 91.3 89.8 90.7
Wyoming 1-6 1-10 79.6 81.0 78.2 79.6
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
San Diego St. 7-0 8-3 106.1 110.7 108.2 108.3
San Jose St. 4-3 5-6 92.5 95.3 92.9 93.6
Nevada 4-3 6-5 89.6 93.4 89.7 90.9
UNLV 2-5 3-8 82.3 84.2 82.9 83.1
Fresno St. 2-6 3-8 80.7 83.5 78.5 80.9
Hawaii 0-8 2-10 78.2 79.8 76.9 78.3
             
MWC Averages     91.6 93.3 91.2 92.0
             
Pac-12 Conference
North Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Stanford 8-1 9-2 123.4 120.6 123.4 122.5
Oregon 6-2 8-3 120.1 114.8 120.3 118.4
California 3-5 6-5 115.0 109.7 114.1 112.9
Washington 3-5 5-6 113.4 110.1 113.3 112.3
Washington St. 6-2 8-3 110.5 107.1 111.3 109.6
Oregon St. 0-8 2-9 87.7 84.3 85.6 85.9
             
South Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
UCLA 5-3 8-3 121.9 116.2 120.8 119.6
USC 5-3 7-4 119.6 115.0 118.7 117.8
Utah 5-3 8-3 119.3 113.6 117.8 116.9
Arizona St. 4-4 6-5 114.4 109.5 114.0 112.6
Arizona 3-6 6-6 107.9 102.4 106.8 105.7
Colorado 1-7 4-8 104.6 99.7 102.7 102.3
             
Pac-12 Averages     113.2 108.6 112.4 111.4
             
Southeastern Conference
East Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Tennessee 4-3 7-4 119.8 115.8 119.7 118.4
Florida 7-1 10-1 116.7 113.4 116.7 115.6
Georgia 5-3 8-3 116.1 110.8 115.4 114.1
Missouri 1-6 5-6 108.2 104.7 107.2 106.7
South Carolina 1-7 3-8 106.9 103.3 105.4 105.2
Kentucky 2-6 5-6 102.8 99.0 101.6 101.1
Vanderbilt 2-5 4-7 100.5 96.4 99.9 98.9
             
West Division            
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Alabama 6-1 10-1 131.7 129.4 131.8 131.0
Ole Miss 5-2 8-3 124.0 119.2 122.6 121.9
Arkansas 4-3 6-5 120.5 115.6 119.7 118.6
LSU 4-3 7-3 119.3 115.6 118.4 117.8
Mississippi St. 4-3 8-3 116.9 113.8 117.5 116.1
Texas A&M 4-3 8-3 116.9 113.7 115.4 115.3
Auburn 2-5 6-5 113.6 110.4 112.3 112.1
             
SEC Averages     115.3 111.5 114.5 113.8
             
Sunbelt Conference
Team Conference Overall PiRate Mean Bias Average
Georgia Southern 5-1 7-3 99.7 102.1 101.2 101.0
Appalachian St. 5-1 8-2 96.9 100.2 98.9 98.7
Arkansas St. 6-0 7-3 93.9 95.1 95.5 94.8
Troy 2-4 3-7 81.9 83.4 82.9 82.7
Georgia St. 3-3 4-6 80.5 82.0 81.5 81.3
UL-Lafayette 3-3 4-6 80.2 82.6 79.8 80.9
South Alabama 3-3 5-5 75.4 80.5 76.3 77.4
Idaho 2-5 3-8 73.8 78.8 75.0 75.9
Texas St. 2-4 3-7 74.5 77.2 74.5 75.4
New Mexico St. 3-3 3-7 73.2 75.3 73.8 74.1
UL-Monroe 0-7 1-10 70.8 69.7 70.1 70.2
             
Sun Belt Averages     81.9 84.3 82.7 82.9

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference
# League PiRate Mean Bias Average
1 SEC 115.3 111.5 114.5 113.8
2 Pac-12 113.2 108.6 112.4 111.4
3 Big 12 110.5 105.0 110.2 108.6
4 ACC 107.5 108.4 107.3 107.7
5 Big Ten 107.1 105.8 106.6 106.5
6 Indep. 102.1 103.8 102.6 102.8
7 AAC 95.8 99.4 96.6 97.2
8 MWC 91.6 93.3 91.2 92.0
9 MAC 87.9 91.7 89.1 89.6
10 CUSA 86.1 88.1 86.3 86.8
11 SBC 81.9 84.3 82.7 82.9

 

Projected Playoff Teams

NCAA Playoffs
1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Iowa
4 Oklahoma

 

Group of 5 Contenders For Automatic New Year’s Six Bowl Bid
# Team
1 Navy
2 Houston
3 Toledo
4 Western Kentucky
5 Air Force

 

Power 5 Conferences Bottom 10
# Team
10 Iowa St.
9 Indiana
8 Vanderbilt
7 Wake Forest
6 Purdue
5 Syracuse
4 Maryland
3 Rutgers
2 Oregon St.
1 Kansas

 

FCS Top 10
# Team PiRate
1 Jacksonville St. 97.5
2 North Dakota St. 91.9
3 Dartmouth 91.8
4 Harvard 91.6
5 McNeese St. 91.5
6 Illinois St. 91.0
7 Charleston Southern 90.1
8 Portland St. 89.8
9 James Madison 89.7
10 Citadel 89.6

 

This Week’s Games
         
Home Visitor PiRate Mean Bias
Tuesday, November 24        
Ball St. Bowling Green -24.1 -26.5 -26.6
Northern Illinois Ohio 14.0 14.0 13.8
         
Thursday, November 26        
Central Florida South Florida -21.6 -24.6 -22.8
Texas Texas Tech 0.0 4.4 0.0
         
Friday, November 27        
Pittsburgh Miami (Fla.) 6.9 7.7 7.3
Western Kentucky Marshall 13.5 12.7 14.3
Houston Navy 3.2 4.5 2.9
Toledo Western Michigan 7.2 7.7 8.0
Akron Kent St. 9.3 2.6 10.9
Central Michigan Eastern Michigan 22.9 21.1 25.7
Georgia St. Troy 0.6 0.6 0.6
Arkansas Missouri 15.3 13.9 15.5
Oregon Oregon St. 34.4 32.5 36.7
Washington Washington St. 4.9 5.0 4.0
Nebraska Iowa 1.2 -2.3 0.2
San Jose St. Boise St. -11.5 -5.7 -10.6
Buffalo Massachusetts 1.8 4.3 2.6
TCU Baylor -1.8 -5.8 -1.5
Tulane Tulsa -4.3 -5.7 -6.3
         
Saturday, November 21        
East Carolina Cincinnati -4.3 -2.4 -4.7
Memphis SMU 22.9 20.4 23.6
West Virginia Iowa St. 17.4 15.6 16.3
Purdue Indiana -1.1 -2.0 -2.3
Rutgers Maryland 2.5 1.3 0.7
Louisiana Tech Southern Miss. 8.4 6.1 8.2
Michigan Ohio St. -5.9 -3.5 -6.2
Old Dominion Florida Atlantic -5.1 -4.6 -6.4
South Carolina Clemson -12.6 -17.2 -14.0
Virginia Virginia Tech -6.2 -7.2 -6.3
Georgia Tech Georgia -5.0 -1.9 -5.9
Kentucky Louisville -2.2 -7.9 -2.8
Syracuse Boston College -3.7 -3.6 -2.7
Wake Forest Duke -4.5 -1.1 -4.5
Appalachian St. Louisiana-Lafayette 19.2 20.1 21.6
Wyoming UNLV -0.2 -0.7 -2.2
Georgia Southern South Alabama 26.8 24.1 27.4
UTSA Middle Tennessee -13.3 -9.9 -12.5
Utah Colorado 17.7 16.9 18.1
North Carolina St. North Carolina -10.4 -9.6 -12.3
Auburn Alabama -16.1 -17.0 -17.5
Rice Charlotte 12.3 13.3 11.8
Michigan St. Penn St. 13.8 11.1 13.9
Minnesota Wisconsin -2.3 -2.8 -1.0
North Texas UTEP -4.0 -3.2 -4.0
USC UCLA -0.3 2.0 -0.1
Northwestern (Chi.) Illinois 0.7 3.3 2.0
Utah St. BYU -6.9 -6.3 -8.5
New Mexico St. Arkansas St. -18.2 -17.3 -19.2
Kansas Kansas St. -27.4 -24.3 -28.7
Tennessee Vanderbilt 22.3 22.4 22.8
Idaho Texas St. 1.8 4.1 3.0
Temple Connecticut 18.3 15.3 17.7
Mississippi St. Ole Miss -5.1 -3.4 -3.1
Stanford Notre Dame 5.4 5.0 5.9
Florida Florida St. 3.5 -1.1 3.9
LSU Texas A&M 5.4 4.9 16.0
Oklahoma St. Oklahoma -8.1 -7.6 -9.2
Fresno St. Colorado St. -10.4 -8.0 -12.5
California Arizona St. 3.6 3.2 3.1
New Mexico Air Force -5.9 -9.2 -7.3
San Diego St. Nevada 19.5 20.3 21.5
Hawaii Louisiana-Monroe 11.4 14.1 10.8

 

Bowl Conferences Team vs. Team
Cure AAC SBC Cincinnati vs. Washington *
New Mexico MWC CUSA New Mexico vs. Tulsa *
Las Vegas Pac-12 MWC/BYU USC vs. BYU
Camellia MAC SBC Ohio vs. Georgia Southern
New Orleans CUSA SBC Louisiana Tech vs. Arkansas St.
Miami Beach AAC CUSA South Florida vs. Western Kentucky
Idaho Potato MAC MWC Akron vs. Boise St.
Boca Raton AAC MAC Connecticut vs. Northern Illinois
Poinsettia MWC Army Air Force vs. Arizona St. *
GoDaddy MAC SBC Toledo vs. Appalachian St.
Bahamas CUSA MAC Southern Miss. vs. Bowling Green
Hawaii AAC MWC/BYU Houston vs. San Diego St.
St. Petersburg AAC CUSA Memphis vs. Marshall
Sun ACC Pac-12 Pittsburgh vs. Utah
Heart of Dallas Big 12 CUSA Utah St. * vs. Middle Tennessee
Pinstripe ACC Big Ten Duke vs. Indiana
Independence SEC ACC Kentucky vs. Miami (Fla.)
Foster Farms Big Ten Pac-12 Minnesota vs. California
Military ACC AAC Louisville vs. Temple
Quick Lane ACC Big Ten Central Michigan * vs. San Jose St. *
Armed Forces Big Ten MWC Washington St. * vs. Colorado St.
Russell Athletic ACC Big 12 Florida St. vs. Oklahoma St.
Arizona CUSA MWC Old Dominion vs. Nevada
Texas Big 12 SEC Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M
Birmingham AAC SEC East Carolina vs. Auburn
Belk ACC SEC Virginia Tech vs. LSU
Music City ACC/B10 SEC Penn St. vs. Tennessee
Peach N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Clemson vs. Navy
Cotton Playoff Playoff Alabama vs. North Carolina
Orange Playoff Playoff Oklahoma vs. Iowa
Holiday Big Ten Pac-12 Wisconsin vs. UCLA
Ouback Big Ten SEC Northwestern vs. Georgia
Citrus Big Ten SEC Ohio St. vs. Mississippi St.
Sugar Big 12 SEC Baylor vs. Florida
Rose Big Ten Pac-12 Michigan St. vs. Stanford
Fiesta N. Y. 6 N. Y. 6 Michigan vs. Notre Dame
TaxSlayer ACC/B10 SEC North Carolina St. vs. Ole Miss
Liberty Big 12 SEC West Virginia vs. Arkansas
Alamo Big 12 Pac-12 TCU vs. Oregon
Cactus Big 12 Pac-12 Kansas St. vs. Arizona
Nat’l Champ. Semifinal Winners Alabama vs. Oklahoma
           
* = At-large selection due to contracted conference not having an eligible team for this slot

 

December 24, 2013

PiRate Ratings: NFL for Week 17–December 29, 2013

Filed under: Pro Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 5:47 am

The Playoff Races In Full

A F C

 

Denver

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs with a win or tie vs. Oakland, or

A New England loss or tie against Buffalo

Falls to #2 Seed if they lose to Oakland and New England beats Buffalo

New England

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs with a win over Buffalo and a Denver loss to Oakland

Clinches #2 Seed with a win or tie vs. Buffalo, or a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore and an Indianapolis loss or tie against Jacksonville

Cincinnati

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Baltimore and a loss by New England to Buffalo

 

Wins Tiebreaker over Indianapolis for #3 Seed (Head-to-Head Win)

 

Indianapolis

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Jacksonville and a New England loss to Buffalo and a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore

 

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Jacksonville and a Cincinnati loss or tie to Baltimore, or

 

A tie over Jacksonville and a Cincinnati loss to Baltimore

 

Kansas City

Has already clinched #5 Seed

Miami

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over the NY Jets and Baltimore loss or tie to Cincinnati, or

A win over NY Jets and a San Diego win over Kansas City, or

A tie with NY Jets, and a Baltimore loss to Cincinnati, and a San Diego loss or tie vs. Kansas City, or

A tie with NY Jets, and a Baltimore tie vs. Cincinnati, and a San Diego tie vs. Kansas City

Baltimore

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over Cincinnati and a San Diego loss or tie vs. Kansas City, or

A win over Cincinnati, and a Miami loss or tie vs. NY Jets, or

A tie vs. Cincinnati, and a Miami loss to NY Jets, and a San Diego loss or tie with Kansas City, or

A tie vs. Cincinnati, and a Miami tie with NY Jets, and a San Diego loss to Kansas City, or

A Miami loss to NY Jets, and a San Diego loss to Kansas City, and a Pittsburgh loss or tie with Cleveland

San Diego

Clinches #6 Seed with win over Kansas City, and Miami loss or tie with NY Jets, and Baltimore loss or tie with Cincinnati, or

 

A tie with Kansas City, and a Miami loss to NY Jets, and Baltimore loss to Cincinnati

Pittsburgh

Clinches #6 Seed with win over Cleveland, and Miami loss to NY Jets, and Baltimore loss to Cincinnati, and San Diego loss to Kansas City

N F C

 

Seattle

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs with a win or tie against St. Louis, or

A San Francisco loss or tie against Arizona

Carolina

Clinches #1 Seed with a win over Atlanta and a Seattle loss to St. Louis, and a San Francisco win over Arizona

Clinches #2 Seed with a win or tie with Atlanta, or

A New Orleans loss or tie with Tampa Bay

Philadelphia

Clinches #3 Seed with win or tie with Dallas

Chicago

Clinches the NFC North Division with a win or tie with Green Bay

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Green Bay and Dallas winning the NFC East (wins tiebreaker based on head-to-head win)

Clinches #4 Seed if Philadelphia wins the NFC East, (or if Bears tie and Dallas wins)

San Francisco

Clinches #1 Seed with home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs with a win over Arizona, and a Seattle loss to St. Louis, and a Carolina loss or tie with Atlanta

Clinches #2 Seed with a win over Arizona and a Seattle loss to St. Louis

Clinches #5 Seed with win over Arizona, or

A New Orleans loss to Tampa Bay (New Orleans and Carolina both hold tiebreaker based on head-to-head win)

Clinches #6 Seed if tied with either New Orleans or Carolina or both

New Orleans

Clinches #2 Seed with win over Tampa Bay and Carolina Loss to Atlanta

 

Clinches #5 Seed with win over Tampa Bay, or

A tie with Tampa Bay and an Arizona loss or tie with San Francisco, or

An Arizona loss to San Francisco

 

Clinches #6 Seed with a loss to Tampa Bay and a San Francisco win or tie over Arizona, or

A Tie with Tampa Bay and a San Francisco tie with Arizona (holds tiebreaker over Arizona based on head-to-head win)

Arizona

Clinches #6 Seed with a win over San Francisco and a New Orleans loss or tie with Tampa Bay, or

A Tie with San Francisco, and a New Orleans loss to Tampa Bay

Dallas

Clinches #3 Seed with a win over Philadelphia and a Chicago loss or tie with Green Bay

Clinches #4 Seed with a win over Philadelphia and a Chicago win over Green Bay (loses tiebreaker to Chicago based on head-to-head loss)

Green Bay

Clinches #4 Seed with a win over Chicago

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

N F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Philadelphia Eagles

101.8

103.0

102.1

Dallas Cowboys

97.7

97.8

96.9

New York Giants

95.6

95.7

95.3

Washington Redskins

92.2

92.2

91.6

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Detroit Lions

100.3

100.3

99.9

Chicago Bears

98.8

98.4

98.3

Green Bay Packers

98.1

97.3

97.4

Minnesota Vikings

95.5

95.2

95.1

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New Orleans Saints

105.5

106.1

106.2

Carolina Panthers

105.5

105.8

105.8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

96.9

96.6

96.9

Atlanta Falcons

95.2

94.6

94.4

 

 

 

 

West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

San Francisco 49ers

110.0

110.6

110.4

Seattle Seahawks

109.5

109.9

109.8

Arizona Cardinals

103.9

104.9

104.3

St. Louis Rams

100.7

101.7

101.4

       

A F C

East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

New England Patriots

107.1

105.5

106.9

Miami Dolphins

100.0

99.2

99.9

Buffalo Bills

97.9

97.6

98.3

New York Jets

92.8

92.0

93.0

       
North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Cincinnati Bengals

108.1

108.5

108.4

Baltimore Ravens

100.3

100.0

100.3

Pittsburgh Steelers

99.9

99.9

100.2

Cleveland Browns

94.3

93.7

93.8

       
South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Indianapolis Colts

102.9

103.3

103.2

Tennessee Titans

97.4

97.5

97.4

Houston Texans

92.6

91.7

92.4

Jacksonville Jaguars

90.8

90.6

90.8

       
West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

Denver Broncos

110.0

110.5

110.4

San Diego Chargers

103.6

104.0

103.6

Kansas City Chiefs

103.4

104.1

103.7

Oakland Raiders

91.7

91.8

91.9

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

Home Visitor

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Atlanta Carolina

-8.3

-9.2

-9.4

Chicago Green Bay

3.7

4.1

3.9

Cincinnati Baltimore

10.8

11.5

11.1

Dallas Philadelphia

-1.1

-2.2

-2.2

Tennessee Houston

6.8

7.8

7.0

Indianapolis Jacksonville

14.1

14.7

14.4

Pittsburgh Cleveland

7.6

8.2

8.4

Miami N Y Jets

10.2

10.2

9.9

Minnesota Detroit

-2.3

-2.6

-2.3

New England Buffalo

12.2

10.9

11.6

New Orleans Tampa Bay

11.6

12.5

12.3

N Y Giants Washington

5.9

6.0

6.2

Arizona San Francisco

-3.1

-2.7

-3.1

San Diego Kansas City

3.2

2.9

2.9

Seattle St. Louis

11.3

10.7

10.9

Oakland Denver

-15.3

-15.7

-15.5

 

This Week’s PiRate Playoff Projections

A F C

1. Denver

2. New England

3. Cincinnati

4. Indianapolis

5. Kansas City

6. Miami

 

N F C

1. Seattle

2. Carolina

3. Philadelphia

4. Chicago

5. San Francisco

6. New Orleans

 

Wildcard Round

Cincinnati over Miami

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Philadelphia over New Orleans

San Francisco over Chicago

 

Divisional Round

Denver over Kansas City

New England over Cincinnati

Seattle over San Francisco

Philadelphia over Carolina

 

Conference Championships

New England over Denver

Philadelphia over Seattle

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

December 26, 2008

PiRate Ratings Week 17 NFL Previews: December 28, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 17

Still Much To Be Decided

 

It seems like the end of the NFL season has come quickly this year.  Maybe it seems that way because last season coincided with the Presidential election that seemed to last forever.

 

Unfortunately, the end of this season coincides with too many holiday plans, and this preview will be abbreviated.  I will list all the playoff possibilities in this article in addition to the standings, ratings, and games.  I won’t list an in-depth game by game preview or make picks due to those time limitations.

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

12

3

0

408

274

108.60

107.65

107.11

2

Dallas

9

6

0

356

321

102.49

103.67

103.29

2

Philadelphia

8

6

1

372

283

106.53

105.48

103.26

2

Washington

8

7

0

241

269

98.55

99.31

99.83

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Minnesota

9

6

0

359

314

104.06

103.81

103.64

2

Chicago

9

6

0

351

319

102.96

101.42

102.34

2

Green Bay

5

10

0

388

359

103.77

101.48

98.91

2

Detroit

0

15

0

247

486

86.86

88.16

86.27

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Carolina

11

4

0

381

298

106.14

105.11

106.11

2

Atlanta

10

5

0

360

298

105.19

104.46

105.79

2

Tampa Bay

9

6

0

337

292

104.06

102.01

102.68

2

New Orleans

8

7

0

432

360

104.61

104.52

102.09

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Arizona

8

7

0

393

405

97.60

97.33

99.25

3

San Francisco

6

9

0

312

357

94.23

95.55

96.42

3

Seattle

4

11

0

273

358

92.89

94.36

94.11

3

St. Louis

2

13

0

205

434

84.00

86.47

86.56

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Miami

10

5

0

321

300

98.73

99.42

102.29

2

New England

10

5

0

397

309

103.21

104.76

105.46

2

New York

9

6

0

388

332

100.62

99.48

100.88

2

Buffalo

7

8

0

336

329

96.92

96.82

98.41

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Pittsburgh

11

4

0

316

223

108.32

107.71

106.47

2

Baltimore

10

5

0

358

237

108.82

107.90

106.01

3

Cleveland

4

11

0

232

319

95.34

94.57

92.24

2

Cincinnati

3

11

1

188

358

92.20

93.93

93.29

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Tennessee

13

2

0

375

211

110.38

109.14

108.97

2

Indianapolis

11

4

0

354

298

104.55

104.95

105.76

2

Houston

7

8

0

335

370

98.63

98.85

99.16

3

Jacksonville

5

10

0

295

340

97.86

97.78

97.59

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Denver

8

7

0

349

396

95.68

96.24

98.05

2

San Diego

7

8

0

387

326

103.66

103.18

102.23

2

Oakland

4

11

0

232

364

91.06

92.37

93.35

2

Kansas City

2

13

0

285

424

91.49

92.05

92.17

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 The Playoffs Scenarios

NFC Already in Playoffs

New York Giants: Clinched #1 Seed & home field advantage

Carolina: Clinched a playoff spot

Atlanta: Clinched a playoff spot

Arizona: Clinched West Division and will play on first weekend of the playoffs

 

NFC Scenarios

NFC EAST

DALLAS

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a Chicago loss or tie and a Tampa Bay loss

C. A tie plus a Minnesota loss or tie and a Tampa Bay loss

D. A tie plus a Chicago loss and a Tampa Bay tie

E. A tie plus a Minnesota loss and a Tampa Bay tie

 

PHILADELPHIA

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus losses by Tampa Bay and Minnesota

B. A win plus losses by Tampa Bay and Chicago

 

NFC NORTH

MINNESOTA

Clinches Division with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus Chicago loss or tie

C. A Chicago loss

 

CHICAGO

Clinches Division with:

A. A win plus a Minnesota loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Minnesota loss

 

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Minnesota win and losses or ties by both Dallas and Tampa Bay

B. A tie plus losses by both Dallas and Tampa Bay

 

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA has already clinched a playoff spot

Clinches Division and First Round Bye with:

A. A win plus a Carolina loss

 

CAROLINA has already clinched a playoff spot

Clinches Division and First Round Bye with:

A. A win or tie

B. An Atlanta loss or tie

 

TAMPA BAY

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Dallas loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Dallas loss and Minnesota loss or tie

C. A tie plus a Dallas loss and a Chicago loss or tie

D. A tie plus a Dallas tie and a Minnesota tie and a Chicago win or tie

E. A tie plus a Dallas tie and a Chicago tie and a Minnesota win or tie

 

AFC Already in Playoffs

Tennessee: Clinched #1 seed & home field advantage

Pittsburgh: Clinched division & first round bye

 

AFC Scenarios

AFC EAST

The AFC East Division Winner will play on the first weekend of the playoffs

 

MIAMI

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a New England loss or tie

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A tie plus a Baltimore loss

 

NEW ENGLAND

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win plus a Miami loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Miami loss

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Baltimore loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Baltimore loss

 

NEW YORK JETS

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win plus a New England loss

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Baltimore loss

 

AFC NORTH

(Pittsburgh has already won the division and secured a first-round bye as the #2 seed)

 

BALTIMORE

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a Miami loss or tie

C. A tie plus a New England loss or tie

D. A New England loss

 

AFC SOUTH

Tennessee has clinched division and the #1 seed, while Indianapolis has clinched a Wildcard

 

AFC WEST

DENVER plays At SAN DIEGO.  The winner of this game wins the Division.  It the game ends in a tie, then Denver wins the Division.  The Division winner will play on the first weekend of the playoffs.

 

If The Season Ended Today

NFC Seedings

1. New York Giants

2. Carolina

3. Minnesota

4. Arizona

5. Atlanta

6. Dallas

 

Dallas would play at Minnesota and Atlanta would play at Arizona.  The higher remaining seed would then play at Carolina and the weaker remaining seed would play at the New York Giants

 

AFC Seedings

1. Tennessee

2. Pittsburgh

3. Miami

4. Denver

5. Indianapolis

6. Baltimore

 

Baltimore would play at Miami and Indianapolis would play at Denver.  The higher remaining seed would then play at Pittsburgh and the weaker remaining seed would play at Tennessee

 

Here Is My Best Guess As To How The Season Will End

 

In the NFC, Philadelphia will take advantage of home field advantage and a revenge factor and defeat Dallas.

 

Atlanta will dismiss St. Louis with ease.

 

Carolina will stumble at New Orleans as Drew Brees finishes off one of the best passing seasons ever.

 

Tampa Bay handles Oakland at home but not by much.

 

Minnesota struggles but hangs up to beat the New York Giants after the Giants pull their starters in the second half.

 

Chicago falls at Houston as the Texans finish 8-8.

 

That would leave Atlanta and Minnesota as division champions and Tampa Bay as the final Wildcard.  Dallas, Philadelphia, and Chicago would be eliminated.

 

In the AFC, Miami will take advantage of Brett Favre’s shoulder problems and take out the Jets at the Meadowlands.

 

New England will go to Buffalo and put up some big numbers in a win, looking like the true dark horse Super Bowl contender (but only until the Baltimore game ends).

 

Baltimore will methodically defeat Jacksonville in a rough game and ruin the weekend for fans in New England.

 

San Diego will take some revenge against Denver and claim the West Division title.

 

That would leave Miami and San Diego as division champions and Baltimore as the final Wildcard team.

 

Note: Weather forecasts and odds are those as of Friday, December 26, 2008, 12 Noon EST

 

You will now see multiple numbers given in the Vegas line and Ov/Un.  I am listing the range given by the different books in Vegas and offshore as of 12 Noon EST Friday, so you can use the one that best meets your needs.  Remember though, if you use parlays and teasers, you must use the same source.  You cannot play a parlay using the odds from different books.  There are no picks this week due to lack of time to study the games..

 

I leave it to you to find out the book in question regarding the spreads.  Generally, some of the big ones in Vegas are: Hilton, Caesar’s-Harrah’s, MGM Mirage, Stations, Leroy’s, Wynn, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, and The Palms.  Some of the large offshore books include: BetUs, Bodog, Sportsbook, BetJamaica, and Pinnacle.

 

Average Simulation Scores for each game are now rounded to nearest whole number.

 

Note: The ratings and the simulations do not take into account the fact that some teams will not play their regulars much if at all this week.

 

NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings-Week 17

 

Kansas City (2-13-0) at Cincinnati (3-11-1)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, strong wind, temperature in the mid 40’s

 

PiRate:                Cincinnati by 3               

Mean:                  Cincinnati by 4

Bias:                    Cincinnati by 3

 

Vegas:               Cincinnati by 2.5 to 3

Ov/Un:               37.5 to 38.5

 

100 Sims:           Cincinnati 78  Kansas City 22

Avg Sim Score:  Cincinnati 29  Kansas City 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Cincinnati 40  Kansas City 21

Outlier 1b Sim:  Kansas City 24  Cincinnati 14

 

 

St. Louis (2-13-0) at Atlanta (10-5-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Atlanta by 23

Mean:                  Atlanta by 20

Bias:                    Atlanta by 21

 

Vegas:               14 to 15.5  

Ov/Un:               44 to 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Atlanta 98  St. Louis 2

Avg Sim Score:  Atlanta 33  St. Louis 11

Outlier 1a Sim:  Atlanta 52  St. Louis 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  St. Louis 24  Atlanta 21

 

 

New England (10-5-0) at Buffalo (7-8-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain Showers, Very Strong Wind, Unseasonably mild temperature near 50

 

PiRate:                New England by 8

Mean:                  New England by 10

Bias:                    New England by 9

 

Vegas:               6 to 7   

Ov/Un:               40 to 41

 

100 Sims:           New England 73  Buffalo 27

Avg Sim Score:  New England 34  Buffalo 28

Outlier 1a Sim:  New England 45  Buffalo 23

Outlier 1b Sim:  Buffalo 31  New England 20

 

 

Detroit (0-15-0) at Green Bay (5-10-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Light snow ending after game starts, moderate wind, temperature in low 20’s

 

PiRate:                Green Bay by 19

Mean:                  Green Bay by 15

Bias:                    Green Bay by 15

 

Vegas:               Green Bay by 10 to 11.5      

Ov/Un:               42.5 to 43

 

100 Sims:           Green Bay 64  Detroit 35  1 Tie

Avg Sim Score:  Green Bay 33  Detroit 29

Outlier 1a Sim:  Green Bay 24  Detroit 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  Detroit 38  Green Bay 30

 

 

Tennessee (13-2-0) at Indianapolis (11-4-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome should be closed

 

PiRate:                Tennessee by 4

Mean:                  Tennessee by 2

Bias:                    Tennessee by 1

 

Vegas:                Tennessee by 3

Ov/Un:               38 to 38.5

 

100 Sims:           Indianapolis 58  Tennessee 42

Avg Sim Score:  Indianapolis 25  Tennessee 23

Outlier 1a Sim:  Indianapolis 28  Tennessee 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  Tennessee 24  Indianapolis 10

 

 

Chicago (9-6-0) at Houston (7-8-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, light wind, temperature around 60

 

PiRate:                Chicago by 1

Mean:                  Tossup

Bias:                    Tossup

 

Vegas:               Houston by 2.5 to 3  

Ov/Un:               46 to 46.5

 

100 Sims:           Houston 51  Chicago 49

Avg Sim Score:  Houston 27  Chicago 27

Outlier 1a Sim:  Houston 37  Chicago 20

Outlier 1b Sim:  Chicago 32  Houston 17

 

 

Oakland (4-11-0) at Tampa Bay (9-6-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature near 80

 

PiRate:                Tampa Bay by 15

Mean:                  Tampa Bay by 12

Bias:                    Tampa Bay by 11

 

Vegas:               Tampa Bay by 12.5 to 14

Ov/Un:               39 to 39.5

 

100 Sims:           Tampa Bay 89  Oakland 11

Avg Sim Score:  Tampa Bay 26  Oakland 12

Outlier 1a Sim:  Tampa Bay 38  Oakland 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Oakland 27  Tampa Bay 21

 

 

Cleveland (4-11-0) at Pittsburgh (11-4-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain showers, strong wind, temperature in low to mid 50’s

 

PiRate:                Pittsburgh by 15

Mean:                 Pittsburgh by 15

Bias:                    Pittsburgh by 16

 

Vegas:                Pittsburgh by 10.5 to 11.5

Ov/Un:               31.5 to 33

 

100 Sims:           Pittsburgh 97  Cleveland 3

Avg Sim Score:  Pittsburgh 29  Cleveland 11

Outlier 1a Sim:  Pittsburgh 49  Cleveland 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cleveland 13  Pittsburgh 10 (2 other 3-point wins)

 

 

New York Giants (12-3-0) at Minnesota (9-6-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Giants by 3

Mean:                 Giants by 2

Bias:                    Giants by 1

 

Vegas:                Minnesota by 7 to 7.5

Ov/Un:               42

 

100 Sims:           Giants 54  Minnesota 46

Avg Sim Score:  Giants 23  Minnesota 20

Outlier 1a Sim:  Giants 31  Minnesota 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Minnesota 27  Giants 17

 

 

Carolina (11-4-0) at New Orleans (8-7-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Tossup

Mean:                  New Orleans by 1

Bias:                    Carolina by2

 

Vegas:               Carolina by 2.5 to 3

Ov/Un:               51.5 to 52.5

 

100 Sims:           New Orleans 55  Carolina 45

Avg Sim Score:  New Orleans 33  Carolina 32

Outlier 1a Sim:  New Orleans 44  Carolina 27

Outlier 1b Sim:  Carolina 35  New Orleans 20

 

 

Jacksonville (5-10-0) at Baltimore (10-5-0)

Time:           4:15PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping from around 60 to the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:                Baltimore by 14

Mean:                 Baltimore by 13

Bias:                   Baltimore by 11

 

Vegas:               Baltimore by 12 to 13.5

Ov/Un:               36 to 36.5

 

100 Sims:           Baltimore 83  Jacksonville 16  1 Tie

Avg Sim Score:  Baltimore 25  Jacksonville 13

Outlier 1a Sim:  Baltimore 24  Jacksonville 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jacksonville 20  Baltimore 14

 

 

Dallas (9-6-0) at Philadelphia (8-6-1)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Rain showers, moderate wind, temperature falling through the 50’s

 

PiRate:                Philadelphia by 6

Mean:                 Philadelphia by 4

Bias:                   Philadelphia by 2

 

Vegas:                Philadelphia by 0 to 2

Ov/Un:               42.5 to 43

 

100 Sims:           Philadelphia 61  Dallas 39

Avg Sim Score:  Philadelphia 27  Dallas 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Philadelphia 41  Dallas 24

Outlier 1b Sim:  Dallas 34  Philadelphia 24

 

 

Miami (10-5-0) at New York Jets (9-6-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping from the mid 50’s to mid 40’s

 

PiRate:                Jets by 4

Mean:                 Jets by 2

Bias:                   Jets by 1

 

Vegas:                Jets by 2 to 3   

Ov/Un:               41.5 to 42.5

 

100 Sims:           Miami 50  Jets 50

Avg Sim Score:  Miami 25  Jets 25

Outlier 1a Sim:  Miami 27  Jets 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jets 20  Miami 12

 

 

Seattle (4-11-0) at Arizona (8-7-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in low 60’s

 

PiRate:                Arizona by 8

Mean:                  Arizona by 6

Bias:                    Arizona by 8

 

Vegas:               Arizona by 6 to 6.5

Ov/Un:               45 to 46

 

100 Sims:           Arizona 83  Seattle 17

Avg Sim Score:  Arizona 33  Seattle 23

Outlier 1a Sim:  Arizona 38  Seattle 16

Outlier 1b Sim:  Seattle 24  Arizona 20

 

 

Washington (8-7-0) at San Francisco (6-9-0)

Time:           4:15PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Showers possible, light wind, temperature in the mid 50’s

                    

PiRate:                Washington by 1

Mean:                  Washington by 1

Bias:                    Tossup

 

Vegas:               San Francisco by 3

Ov/Un:               37 to 37.5

 

100 Sims:           San Francisco 56  Washington 44

Avg Sim Score:  San Francisco 23  Washington 21

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Francisco 27  Washington 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Washington 21  San Francisco 13

 

 

Denver (8-7-0) at San Diego (7-8-0)

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature falling from mid to low 60’s

 

PiRate:                San Diego by 10

Mean:                  San Diego by   9

Bias:                    San Diego by   6

 

Vegas:                San Diego by 7.5 to 9.5

Ov/Un:               50 to 51

 

100 Sims:           San Diego 59  Denver 41

Avg Sim Score:  San Diego 34  Denver 30

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Diego 51  Denver 27

Outlier 1b Sim:  Denver 45  San Diego 31

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