PiRate Ratings College Basketball — Monday, March 20, 2023

Home	Visitor	Spread
Indiana St.	Eastern Kentucky	5.7
Southern Utah	Rice	6.3
San Jose St.	Radford	4.3
Charlotte	Milwaukee	6.4

Mountain West Conference Preview

The Mountain West Conference is the only Group of 5 league that didn’t have realignment issues in the past 12 months. Rumors abound that Boise State, Fresno State, and San Diego State could be on the radar screen with either the Pac-12 or Big 12 Conferences, but those are just rumors for now.

The MWC has enjoyed quite a bit of success in the last decade. Last year, eight MWC teams earned bowl bids. Two of the bowl games were cancelled due to Covid, but in the six bowl games played, MWC teams went 5-1. In the history of this league, MWC teams have won 57% of their bowl games. Only the SEC and the Sun Belt have better bowl game winning percentages in that time.

2022 should be another banner year for the league. Three teams have a chance to compete for the lone New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid.

Mountain West PiRate Ratings

Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	106.0	104.9	106.9	105.9
Air Force	100.9	100.8	102.3	101.3
Utah St.	95.4	95.8	96.6	95.9
Colorado St.	88.5	89.8	89.0	89.1
Wyoming	83.9	86.6	85.0	85.2
New Mexico	80.3	81.0	79.0	80.1
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Fresno St.	103.2	102.5	104.5	103.4
San Diego St.	97.4	97.4	97.8	97.6
Nevada	87.0	89.1	86.8	87.6
U N L V	88.4	85.9	88.0	87.5
San Jose St.	86.8	87.2	87.9	87.3
Hawaii	78.5	80.0	79.3	79.2
MWC	91.4	91.7	91.9	91.7

Mountain West Preseason Media Poll

		Votes
#	Mountain	1st Place	Overall
1	Boise St.	14	151
2	Air Force	10	136
3	Utah St.	3	122
4	Colorado St.	1	90
5	Wyoming	0	60
6	New Mexico	0	29
#	West	1st Place	Overall
1	Fresno St.	20	160
2	San Diego St.	8	148
3	San Jose St.	0	105
4	Nevada	0	66
5	UNLV	0	58
6	Hawaii	0	51

The PiRate Rating are designed to be used for the next week of football games and not meant to be used to predict won-loss records. Nevertheless, here are the projected won-loss records.

Predicted Won-Loss Records

Mountain	Conf	Overall
Boise St.	8-0	10-3
Air Force	6-2	10-2
Utah St.	6-2	8-4
Colorado St.	3-5	5-7
Wyoming	3-5	4-8
New Mexico	0-8	2-10
West	Conf	Overall
Fresno St.	7-1	10-3
San Diego St.	6-2	9-3
San Jose St.	4-4	6-6
UNLV	3-5	5-7
Nevada	2-6	5-7
Hawaii	0-8	1-12

PiRate Picks–October 28-30, 2021

Back To Back Winning Weeks

Usually, the middle of October to the middle of November has been the period where our college football parlay picks have made their move into positive territory, and this year has been another example of that. After going north and south of the break-even line, in the last two weeks, a couple of big wins with fat payouts has taken our imaginary bankroll and turned it from red to black numbers.

We won two of the four parlays, one paying out at +187 and the other at +147.40. That comes to a 33.6% return on investment for the weekend. For the year, $3,500 in imaginary funds have been wagered with the sports books, and $3,704.28 in imaginary funds have been returned for an ROI of 5.84%.

Last week, we did not particularly like the games overall. It was difficult finding suitable parlays with payouts better than +120 that our “system” said had a better chance than the minimum needed to show a profit. The week before, too many games presented themselves as playable, and we had to limit the ones we wanted.

This week, it is somewhere in between. We selected to underdogs to win outright with rather fat payout odds. Our methods say these two games are virtual tossup games, so if we can get better than +120 on these games, we feel compelled to take the ‘dogs.

However, after the two straight up upset selections, we spent an extra hour plus trying to combine games into suitable odds while remaining confident that the teams would win.

So, without further adieu, here are our five selections for this week.

Note: Corrected Parlay after astute football guru Dustdog spotted an error.

Date:	October 28-30
Odds:	+360
Must Win	Opponent
UTEP	Florida Atlantic
Odds:	+170
Must Win	Opponent
Michigan St.	Michigan
Odds:	+225.59
Must Win	Opponent
Illinois	Rutgers
Notre Dame	North Carolina
Odds:	+269.54
Must Win	Opponent
Central Florida	Temple
Kansas St.	TCU
Rice	North Texas
Odds:	+150
Must Win	Opponent
Utah St.	Hawaii
San Jose St.	Wyoming

PiRate Picks–October 21-23, 2021

What a minor difference a week made! After just missing on three big-payout parlays two weeks ago, we played the same strategy last week and made a minor splash thanks to the help of one long shot parlay that won and returned better than 3 to 1 odds. With another win at +187, we made a small profit last week, but large enough to turn our minor net loss for the season into a net gain of 2.3%.

Of course, as we say every week, our financial loss or gain is merely imaginary, as we are playing with imaginary funds that never run out but never accrue. This feature is presented just for fun, and we strongly urge you not to wager real money on what you read here, unless it merely validates your research.

This week presents the fewest number of games that met our criteria this year in any week. We could only go with four parlays of two teams apiece. None are major long shots, but they all top +120, which is the minimum odds we will play. Enjoy!

Date:	October 21-25
Odds:	+187
Must Win	Opponent
Central Florida	Memphis
Notre Dame	USC
Odds:	+147.40
Must Win	Opponent
Eastern Michigan	Bowling Green
Kent St.	Ohio U
Odds:	+138.99
Must Win	Opponent
San Jose St.	UNLV
Ball St.	Miami (O)
Odds:	+131.08
Must Win	Opponent
Minnesota	Maryland
TCU	West Virginia

Mountain West Coast Conference Preview

Like every other conference in 2020, the Mountain West Conference was forced to make some eleventh hour changes, delaying the start of the season to late October.  One team, Colorado State, played just four games.  Several teams made it to six games.  A couple played seven times, and no team played double digit games.

Divisional play was cancelled last year, with the top two finishers facing off in the MWC Championship Game.  San Jose State finished first with a 6-0 league record, while Boise State finished a half-game back at 5-0.  In the MWC Championship Game, the Spartans bested the Broncos by two touchdowns.

Normalcy returns in 2021, as the teams return to divisional play.  At the preseason meetings the MWC Media voted their predicted order of finish for the season.  Here is how it turned out:

Mountain West Conference Preseason Media Poll
Mountain Division	1st Pl	Overall
Boise St.	23	148
Wyoming	2	115
Air Force		104
Colorado St.		72
Utah St.		47
New Mexico		39
West Division	1st Pl	Overall
Nevada	19	141
San Jose St.	5	121
San Diego St.		96
Fresno St.	1	85
Hawaii		56
UNLV		26

Here is the PiRate Ratings Preview for the MWC

Boise State breaks in a new head coach, after Bryan Harsin left for Auburn.  The Broncos return 16 starters including their starting quarterback and two excellent receivers.  New coach Andy Avalos needs to get more consistency out of the Boise State offense.  The defense is good enough to win games for the Broncos as long as the offense tops 30 points.

One of these years, Wyoming is going to put it all together and take the Mountain Division flag.  Coach Craig Bohl has what looks like his best team since he arrived in Laramie, and this could be the year the Cowboys challenge for the division title.  The Wyoming defense should challenge for the league lead in points allowed and total yards allowed.

AIr Force led the MWC in scoring defense last year, while the option offense was off and on.  When an option style team has a veteran quarterback, they usually perform a little better than the previous season.  However, even though quarterback Haaziq Daniels returns to start, he will play behind an offensive line that must replace all five starters.  The Falcon defense is going to need to come out with a lot of stalled opponent drives if AFA is going to compete for the division flag.

Colorado State has had a lot of turnover the last couple of seasons with three different head coaches.  Current coach and former Boston College head man Steve Addazio didn’t get much of a chance to coach in Fort Collins in his first year, going just 1-3.  He has an experienced squad returning, but the Rams have a tough schedule.  Competing for a winning record may be two seasons away at the least.

Utah State won just one time last year, a 14-point victory over New Mexico.  Once considered an offensive firepower, the Aggies are anything but that these days.  USU must break in a new quarterback, three new pass catchers, and a new running back, and the offense is going to struggle at times after averaging just 15.5 points per game last year.  The defense was mediocre in 2020, and it could be weaker this year, so the Aggies are not likely to enjoy a winning season.

New Mexico lost their first five games but was competitive in four of those games last year.  The Lobos ended the season with wins over Wyoming and Fresno State, and they return 14 starters.  They are a good quarterback away from contending for a bowl game this year.

In the West Division, the Nevada Wolf Pack clearly begins the season as the team to beat for the championship.  The Wolf Pack have the far and away best quarterback in the league and one of the top five in the nation in Carson Strong.  Give Strong a highly competent receiving corps, and Nevada should ride their version of the Air Raid offense to more than 35 points per game this year.  The good news for the Pack is their defense should be somewhat improved this year after surrendering just 23 points per game last year.  Keep an eye on this team; they have two road games against Power Five conference opponents, and they play Boise State on the road.  It would not be a shock if Nevada pulled off upsets in any or all of these games, assuming they count as upsets.

Nevada will have to compete with San Jose State and San Diego State for the West Division title, as both the Spartans and Aztecs are quite talented.  San Jose State went undefeated in the regular season and topped Boise State in the MWC title game, but they fell to a hot Ball State team in the Arizona Bowl.  The Spartans return their entire starting defense, while the offense returns the second best quarterback in the league in Nick Starkel, playing behind an offensive line that returns all five regulars.  Other than a game at USC in September, the Spartans have a chance to win the rest.  The November 6 game at Nevada might decide the division title.

San Diego State began to play defense in 2020 like the Aztecs were known for a decade ago, giving up 17.8 points per game and finishing third nationally in yards allowed at 283.5 per game.  SDSU doesn’t have the experienced quarterback like the other two contenders, but the Aztec defense should be even stronger in 2021.  

Fresno State had an off year at 3-3, and the Bulldogs concluded 2020 with a 49-39 loss to New Mexico.  Things weren’t as bad as they appeared to be for this team.  They suffered the most logistical nightmare of any team thanks to Covid.  The program totally shut down for more than six months, and after beating Utah State on November 14, they prepared to play for three weeks only to find out late each week that their game had been cancelled.  Additionally, after October’s home game win over Colorado State, they had to play their final four games on the road. Second year coach Kalen DeBoer welcomes back an experienced roster.  DeBoer went 67-3 in his previous stint as a head coach at NAIA power Sioux Falls.  Expect the Bulldogs to begin a trek back toward regular contention for the MWC championship.  Having to play at Oregon and at UCLA in September and then making a trip to Hawaii in early October could task the roster a tad too much, but FSU could easily sneak into contention .

Hawaii cannot be discounted as a dark horse in the West Division race.  Todd Graham guided the Rainbow Warriors to a 5-4 record that included a New Mexico Bowl win over Houston last year.  The UH offense was consistent, but the defense was not.  Expect a better defensive performance this year, and the offense should be strong once again.  UH will be handicapped a bit this year having to play seven road games, while their home games will be played in a retrofitted practice field on campus, while waiting for Aloha Stadium to be rebuilt.  The practice field will serve as the home field for the next three years.

UNLV wore the collar in 2020, going 0-6 in Coach Marcus Arroyo’s first season.  The Rebels will be interesting to watch this year, even if the total level of talent isn’t ready to compete in the MWC.  While 10 starters return to the weakest defense in the league, and a couple of  players that missed 2020 will be back to make the defense stronger, the focus will be on the offense, namely at quarterback.  

Tate Martell was the Gatorade National Player of the Year as a senior at Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas.  Martell took a circuitous route home after committing to multiple colleges and playing for both Ohio State and Miami of Florida.  He has one year to show NFL scouts that he is worthy of being drafted.  If he can live up to expectations, Martell could challenge Starkel as second best passer in the league.  If not, UNLV could struggle to win a conference game this year.

Here are the preseason PiRate Ratings for the MWC

Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
Boise St.	103.9	103.3	104.3	103.9
Wyoming	97.7	98.4	99.5	98.5
Air Force	96.4	96.3	96.9	96.5
Colorado St.	88.8	88.8	89.3	89.0
Utah St.	85.6	86.6	85.2	85.8
New Mexico	85.8	86.2	85.2	85.7
West Division
Team	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Average
San Jose St.	100.8	101.1	99.0	100.3
San Diego St.	100.6	99.9	100.2	100.2
Nevada	98.4	99.7	98.4	98.8
Fresno St.	93.7	95.7	96.7	95.3
Hawaii	94.8	94.1	94.7	94.6
U N L V	85.8	84.3	84.6	84.9
MWC Averages	94.4	94.5	94.5	94.5

The PiRate Ratings are designed only to predict the next game for each team and not to look forward past that game, but just for fun, here are our predictions for 2021.

MWC Mountain	Conf.	Overall
Boise St.	7-1	8-5
Wyoming	6-2	10-2
Air Force	4-4	7-5
New Mexico	3-5	6-6
Colorado St.	2-6	4-8
Utah St.	1-7	3-9
MWC West	Conf.	Overall
San Jose St.	6-2	10-3*
Nevada	6-2	8-4
San Diego St.	5-3	8-4
Hawaii	4-4	7-6
Fresno St.	3-5	5-7
UNLV	1-7	2-10
* San Jose St. wins MWC Championship Game

2013 Mountain West Conference Football Preview

2013 Mountain West Conference Preview

 

The Mountain West Conference expands to 12 teams this year and divides into two divisions with a championship game to be held on December 7 at the home field on the division winner with the higher BCS ranking.

 

The divisional split here is geographical in an east/west split, but the divisions are named, Mountain and West.  All Mountain teams reside in cities in the Mountain Time Zone, while all West Teams resided in cities in the Pacific Time Zone, or in the case of Hawaii, in the Hawaii Time Zone (2 hours behind the Pacific Time Zone).

 

Last year, Fresno St., San Diego St., and Boise St. tied for the conference title.  Throw in two new teams (both 11-2) that finished in the top 25 in last year’s final poll, and the league should be stronger this season, but not as strong as when TCU was in the league.

 

We expect a little changing of the guard this season.  We suspect Boise State to experience a rebuilding season and have their worst season in a decade.  It is the first time our ratings have not listed BSU as the top-rated team in their league since 2005.

 

This league has produced multiple BCS Bowl qualifiers, and we believe there is a good chance that one more team could challenge for a spot this season.  An October 26 road game against San Diego St. and a November 29 road game against San Jose St. and a win in the inaugural MWC title game are the three crucial games that must be victorious for Fresno St.  If the Bulldogs win those three games, they should be 13-0.  Our ratings have FSU favored in every game.

 

Additions: San Jose St. and Utah St. move from the now football defunct WAC.

 

Departures: None

 

Pre-season PiRate Ratings

 

Mountain West Conference Mountain Division Team Conf. Overall PiRate Mean Bias Utah St. 0-0 0-0 100.9 92.5 101.1 Boise St. 0-0 0-0 100.0 102.3 101.7 Colorado St. 0-0 0-0 90.3 94.4 90.8 Wyoming 0-0 0-0 85.8 85.6 85.9 Air Force 0-0 0-0 81.3 87.7 81.2 New Mexico 0-0 0-0 78.8 83.9 79.4             West Division Team Conf. Overall PiRate Mean Bias Fresno St. 0-0 0-0 104.0 101.4 105.0 San Jose St. 0-0 0-0 100.3 94.9 100.7 San Diego St. 0-0 0-0 98.6 98.3 98.8 Nevada 0-0 0-0 88.5 96.2 89.5 U N L V 0-0 0-0 85.7 92.0 86.3 Hawaii 0-0 0-0 82.0 82.4 82.4             League Averages     91.4 92.6 91.9
Official Pre-season Media Poll
Mountain Division     Pos Team Points 1st Place 1 Boise St. 245 40 2 Utah St. 204 1 3 Air Force 143 0 4 Wyoming 116 0 5 Colorado St. 90 0 6 New Mexico 63 0         West Division     Pos Team Points 1st Place 1 Fresno St. 243 39 2 San Diego St. 181 1 3 San Jose St. 172 1 4 Nevada 135 0 5 U N L V 71 0 6 Hawaii 59 0

 

2013 MOUNTAIN WEST FOOTBALL PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE TEAM
Offense
QB	Derek Carr *	Sr.	Fresno State
WR	Davante Adams *	So.	Fresno State
WR	Noel Grigsby	Sr.	San José State
RB	Kasey Carrier **	Sr.	New Mexico
RB	Adam Muema **	Jr.	San Diego State
OL	Charles Leno **	Sr.	Boise State
OL	Matt Paradis *	Sr.	Boise State
OL	Weston Richburg	Sr.	Colorado State
OL	Austin Wentworth *	Sr.	Fresno State
OL	Tyler Larsen	Sr.	Utah State
TE	Marcel Jensen	Sr.	Fresno State
Defense
DL	Demarcus Lawrence *	Jr.	Boise State
DL	Tyeler Davison *	Jr.	Fresno State
DL	Brock Hekking **	Jr.	Nevada
DL	Travis Raciti	Jr.	San José State
LB	Jake Fely **	Jr.	San Diego State
LB	Keith Smith	Sr.	San José State
LB	Kyler Fackrell	So.	Utah State
DB	L.J. Jones	Sr.	Fresno State
DB	Derron Smith *	Jr.	Fresno State
DB	Nat Berhe **	Sr.	San Diego State
DB	Bené Benwikere	Sr.	San José State
Specialists
P	Ben Skaer	Sr.	New Mexico
PK	Austin Lopez	So.	San José State
Ret.	Chase Clayton	Jr.	New Mexico
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year:			Derek Carr, Sr., QB, Fresno State
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year:			Derron Smith, Jr., DB, Fresno State
Preseason Spcl Teams Player of the Year:			Chase Clayton, Jr., KR, New Mexico
* – member of the 2012 All-Mountain West first team.
** – member of the 2012 All-Mountain West second team.

 

 

PiRate Ratings Summary

 

About Grades

93-100         A+

86-92           A

79-85           A-

72-78           B+

65-71           B

58-64           B-

51-57           C+

44-50           C

37-43           C-

30-36           D

0-29             F

 

About Predictions

Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in.  The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.

 

Mountain Division

Team	Utah St. Aggies
Head Coach	Matt Wells
Colors	Navy and White
City	Logan, UT
2012 Record
Conference	6-0 (in WAC)
Overall	11-2
Grades
Run Offense	67
Pass Offense	63
Run Defense	75
Pass Defense	61
Ratings
PiRate	100.9
Mean	92.5
Bias	101.1
Rankings
PiRate	53
Mean	93
Bias	50
Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	8-5 (Lose MWC Championship Game)

 

 

Team	Boise St. Broncos
Head Coach	Chris Petersen
Colors	Blue and Orange
City	Boise, ID
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	11-2
Grades
Run Offense	59
Pass Offense	67
Run Defense	63
Pass Defense	69
Ratings
PiRate	100.0
Mean	102.3
Bias	101.7
Rankings
PiRate	58
Mean	49
Bias	47
Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	7-5

 

 

Team	Colorado St. Rams
Head Coach	Jim McElwain
Colors	Forest Green and Gold
City	Ft. Collins, CO
2012 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	4-8
Grades
Run Offense	55
Pass Offense	55
Run Defense	51
Pass Defense	59
Ratings
PiRate	90.3
Mean	94.4
Bias	90.8
Rankings
PiRate	91
Mean	86
Bias	91
Prediction
Conference	5-3
Overall	7-5

 

 

Team	Wyoming Cowboys
Head Coach	Dave Christensen
Colors	Brown and Gold
City	Laramie, WY
2012 Record
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8
Grades
Run Offense	41
Pass Offense	69
Run Defense	40
Pass Defense	68
Ratings
PiRate	85.8
Mean	85.6
Bias	85.9
Rankings
PiRate	103
Mean	114
Bias	105
Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	5-7

 

 

Team	Air Force Falcons
Head Coach	Troy Calhoun
Colors	Blue and Silver
City	Colorado Springs, CO
2012 Record
Conference	5-3
Overall	6-7
Grades
Run Offense	69
Pass Offense	28
Run Defense	43
Pass Defense	50
Ratings
PiRate	81.3
Mean	87.7
Bias	81.2
Rankings
PiRate	115
Mean	107
Bias	114
Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	3-9

 

 

Team	New Mexico Lobos
Head Coach	Bob Davie
Colors	Cherry and Silver
City	Albuquerque, NM
2012 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	4-9
Grades
Run Offense	66
Pass Offense	26
Run Defense	45
Pass Defense	44
Ratings
PiRate	78.8
Mean	83.8
Bias	79.4
Rankings
PiRate	120
Mean	117
Bias	119
Prediction
Conference	1-7
Overall	2-10

 

 

Team	Fresno St. Bulldogs
Head Coach	Tim DeRuyter
Colors	Cardinal and Blue
City	Fresno, CA
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense
Pass Offense
Run Defense
Pass Defense
Ratings
PiRate	104.0
Mean	101.4
Bias	105.0
Rankings
PiRate	44
Mean	56
Bias	43
Prediction
Conference	8-0
Overall	13-0 (win MWC title game)

 

 

Team	San Jose St. Spartans
Head Coach	Ron Caragher
Colors	Blue and Gold
City	San Jose
2012 Record
Conference	5-1 (in WAC)
Overall	11-2
Grades
Run Offense	39
Pass Offense	83
Run Defense	63
Pass Defense	69
Ratings
PiRate	100.3
Mean	94.9
Bias	100.7
Rankings
PiRate	56
Mean	85
Bias	55
Prediction
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-3

 

 

Team	San Diego St. Aztecs
Head Coach	Rocky Long
Colors	Red and Black
City	San Diego
2012 Record
Conference	7-1
Overall	9-4
Grades
Run Offense	62
Pass Offense	56
Run Defense	76
Pass Defense	63
Ratings
PiRate	98.6
Mean	98.3
Bias	98.8
Rankings
PiRate	66
Mean	66
Bias	65
Prediction
Conference	6-2
Overall	8-4

 

 

Team	Nevada Wolf Pack
Head Coach	Brian Polian
Colors	Blue and Silver
City	Reno, NV
2012 Record
Conference	4-4
Overall	7-6
Grades
Run Offense
Pass Offense
Run Defense
Pass Defense
Ratings
PiRate	88.5
Mean	96.2
Bias	89.5
Rankings
PiRate	97
Mean	80
Bias	96
Prediction
Conference	3-5
Overall	4-8

 

 

Team	U N L V Rebels
Head Coach	Bobby Hauck
Colors	Scarlet and Gray
City	Las Vegas
2012 Record
Conference	2-6
Overall	2-11
Grades
Run Offense	55
Pass Offense	62
Run Defense	31
Pass Defense	51
Ratings
PiRate	85.7
Mean	92.0
Bias	86.3
Rankings
PiRate	104
Mean	95
Bias	103
Prediction
Conference	2-6
Overall	4-8

 

 

Team	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Head Coach	Norm Chow
Colors	Green, Black, and Silver
City	Honolulu
2012 Record
Conference	1-7
Overall	3-9
Grades
Run Offense	27
Pass Offense	62
Run Defense	39
Pass Defense	53
Ratings
PiRate	82.0
Mean	82.4
Bias	82.4
Rankings
PiRate	114
Mean	120
Bias	113
Prediction
Conference	0-8
Overall	1-11