Usually, the middle of October to the middle of November has been the period where our college football parlay picks have made their move into positive territory, and this year has been another example of that. After going north and south of the break-even line, in the last two weeks, a couple of big wins with fat payouts has taken our imaginary bankroll and turned it from red to black numbers.
We won two of the four parlays, one paying out at +187 and the other at +147.40. That comes to a 33.6% return on investment for the weekend. For the year, $3,500 in imaginary funds have been wagered with the sports books, and $3,704.28 in imaginary funds have been returned for an ROI of 5.84%.
Last week, we did not particularly like the games overall. It was difficult finding suitable parlays with payouts better than +120 that our “system” said had a better chance than the minimum needed to show a profit. The week before, too many games presented themselves as playable, and we had to limit the ones we wanted.
This week, it is somewhere in between. We selected to underdogs to win outright with rather fat payout odds. Our methods say these two games are virtual tossup games, so if we can get better than +120 on these games, we feel compelled to take the ‘dogs.
However, after the two straight up upset selections, we spent an extra hour plus trying to combine games into suitable odds while remaining confident that the teams would win.
So, without further adieu, here are our five selections for this week.
Note: Corrected Parlay after astute football guru Dustdog spotted an error.
What a minor difference a week made! After just missing on three big-payout parlays two weeks ago, we played the same strategy last week and made a minor splash thanks to the help of one long shot parlay that won and returned better than 3 to 1 odds. With another win at +187, we made a small profit last week, but large enough to turn our minor net loss for the season into a net gain of 2.3%.
Of course, as we say every week, our financial loss or gain is merely imaginary, as we are playing with imaginary funds that never run out but never accrue. This feature is presented just for fun, and we strongly urge you not to wager real money on what you read here, unless it merely validates your research.
This week presents the fewest number of games that met our criteria this year in any week. We could only go with four parlays of two teams apiece. None are major long shots, but they all top +120, which is the minimum odds we will play. Enjoy!
Like every other conference in 2020, the Mountain West Conference was forced to make some eleventh hour changes, delaying the start of the season to late October. One team, Colorado State, played just four games. Several teams made it to six games. A couple played seven times, and no team played double digit games.
Divisional play was cancelled last year, with the top two finishers facing off in the MWC Championship Game. San Jose State finished first with a 6-0 league record, while Boise State finished a half-game back at 5-0. In the MWC Championship Game, the Spartans bested the Broncos by two touchdowns.
Normalcy returns in 2021, as the teams return to divisional play. At the preseason meetings the MWC Media voted their predicted order of finish for the season. Here is how it turned out:
Mountain West Conference Preseason Media Poll
Mountain Division
1st Pl
Overall
Boise St.
23
148
Wyoming
2
115
Air Force
104
Colorado St.
72
Utah St.
47
New Mexico
39
West Division
1st Pl
Overall
Nevada
19
141
San Jose St.
5
121
San Diego St.
96
Fresno St.
1
85
Hawaii
56
UNLV
26
Here is the PiRate Ratings Preview for the MWC
Boise State breaks in a new head coach, after Bryan Harsin left for Auburn. The Broncos return 16 starters including their starting quarterback and two excellent receivers. New coach Andy Avalos needs to get more consistency out of the Boise State offense. The defense is good enough to win games for the Broncos as long as the offense tops 30 points.
One of these years, Wyoming is going to put it all together and take the Mountain Division flag. Coach Craig Bohl has what looks like his best team since he arrived in Laramie, and this could be the year the Cowboys challenge for the division title. The Wyoming defense should challenge for the league lead in points allowed and total yards allowed.
AIr Force led the MWC in scoring defense last year, while the option offense was off and on. When an option style team has a veteran quarterback, they usually perform a little better than the previous season. However, even though quarterback Haaziq Daniels returns to start, he will play behind an offensive line that must replace all five starters. The Falcon defense is going to need to come out with a lot of stalled opponent drives if AFA is going to compete for the division flag.
Colorado State has had a lot of turnover the last couple of seasons with three different head coaches. Current coach and former Boston College head man Steve Addazio didn’t get much of a chance to coach in Fort Collins in his first year, going just 1-3. He has an experienced squad returning, but the Rams have a tough schedule. Competing for a winning record may be two seasons away at the least.
Utah State won just one time last year, a 14-point victory over New Mexico. Once considered an offensive firepower, the Aggies are anything but that these days. USU must break in a new quarterback, three new pass catchers, and a new running back, and the offense is going to struggle at times after averaging just 15.5 points per game last year. The defense was mediocre in 2020, and it could be weaker this year, so the Aggies are not likely to enjoy a winning season.
New Mexico lost their first five games but was competitive in four of those games last year. The Lobos ended the season with wins over Wyoming and Fresno State, and they return 14 starters. They are a good quarterback away from contending for a bowl game this year.
In the West Division, the Nevada Wolf Pack clearly begins the season as the team to beat for the championship. The Wolf Pack have the far and away best quarterback in the league and one of the top five in the nation in Carson Strong. Give Strong a highly competent receiving corps, and Nevada should ride their version of the Air Raid offense to more than 35 points per game this year. The good news for the Pack is their defense should be somewhat improved this year after surrendering just 23 points per game last year. Keep an eye on this team; they have two road games against Power Five conference opponents, and they play Boise State on the road. It would not be a shock if Nevada pulled off upsets in any or all of these games, assuming they count as upsets.
Nevada will have to compete with San Jose State and San Diego State for the West Division title, as both the Spartans and Aztecs are quite talented. San Jose State went undefeated in the regular season and topped Boise State in the MWC title game, but they fell to a hot Ball State team in the Arizona Bowl. The Spartans return their entire starting defense, while the offense returns the second best quarterback in the league in Nick Starkel, playing behind an offensive line that returns all five regulars. Other than a game at USC in September, the Spartans have a chance to win the rest. The November 6 game at Nevada might decide the division title.
San Diego State began to play defense in 2020 like the Aztecs were known for a decade ago, giving up 17.8 points per game and finishing third nationally in yards allowed at 283.5 per game. SDSU doesn’t have the experienced quarterback like the other two contenders, but the Aztec defense should be even stronger in 2021.
Fresno State had an off year at 3-3, and the Bulldogs concluded 2020 with a 49-39 loss to New Mexico. Things weren’t as bad as they appeared to be for this team. They suffered the most logistical nightmare of any team thanks to Covid. The program totally shut down for more than six months, and after beating Utah State on November 14, they prepared to play for three weeks only to find out late each week that their game had been cancelled. Additionally, after October’s home game win over Colorado State, they had to play their final four games on the road. Second year coach Kalen DeBoer welcomes back an experienced roster. DeBoer went 67-3 in his previous stint as a head coach at NAIA power Sioux Falls. Expect the Bulldogs to begin a trek back toward regular contention for the MWC championship. Having to play at Oregon and at UCLA in September and then making a trip to Hawaii in early October could task the roster a tad too much, but FSU could easily sneak into contention .
Hawaii cannot be discounted as a dark horse in the West Division race. Todd Graham guided the Rainbow Warriors to a 5-4 record that included a New Mexico Bowl win over Houston last year. The UH offense was consistent, but the defense was not. Expect a better defensive performance this year, and the offense should be strong once again. UH will be handicapped a bit this year having to play seven road games, while their home games will be played in a retrofitted practice field on campus, while waiting for Aloha Stadium to be rebuilt. The practice field will serve as the home field for the next three years.
UNLV wore the collar in 2020, going 0-6 in Coach Marcus Arroyo’s first season. The Rebels will be interesting to watch this year, even if the total level of talent isn’t ready to compete in the MWC. While 10 starters return to the weakest defense in the league, and a couple of players that missed 2020 will be back to make the defense stronger, the focus will be on the offense, namely at quarterback.
Tate Martell was the Gatorade National Player of the Year as a senior at Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas. Martell took a circuitous route home after committing to multiple colleges and playing for both Ohio State and Miami of Florida. He has one year to show NFL scouts that he is worthy of being drafted. If he can live up to expectations, Martell could challenge Starkel as second best passer in the league. If not, UNLV could struggle to win a conference game this year.
Here are the preseason PiRate Ratings for the MWC
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
Boise St.
103.9
103.3
104.3
103.9
Wyoming
97.7
98.4
99.5
98.5
Air Force
96.4
96.3
96.9
96.5
Colorado St.
88.8
88.8
89.3
89.0
Utah St.
85.6
86.6
85.2
85.8
New Mexico
85.8
86.2
85.2
85.7
West Division
Team
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Average
San Jose St.
100.8
101.1
99.0
100.3
San Diego St.
100.6
99.9
100.2
100.2
Nevada
98.4
99.7
98.4
98.8
Fresno St.
93.7
95.7
96.7
95.3
Hawaii
94.8
94.1
94.7
94.6
U N L V
85.8
84.3
84.6
84.9
MWC Averages
94.4
94.5
94.5
94.5
The PiRate Ratings are designed only to predict the next game for each team and not to look forward past that game, but just for fun, here are our predictions for 2021.
MWC Mountain
Conf.
Overall
Boise St.
7-1
8-5
Wyoming
6-2
10-2
Air Force
4-4
7-5
New Mexico
3-5
6-6
Colorado St.
2-6
4-8
Utah St.
1-7
3-9
MWC West
Conf.
Overall
San Jose St.
6-2
10-3*
Nevada
6-2
8-4
San Diego St.
5-3
8-4
Hawaii
4-4
7-6
Fresno St.
3-5
5-7
UNLV
1-7
2-10
* San Jose St. wins MWC Championship Game
Comments Off on Mountain West Coast Conference Preview
The Mountain West Conference expands to 12 teams this year and divides into two divisions with a championship game to be held on December 7 at the home field on the division winner with the higher BCS ranking.
The divisional split here is geographical in an east/west split, but the divisions are named, Mountain and West. All Mountain teams reside in cities in the Mountain Time Zone, while all West Teams resided in cities in the Pacific Time Zone, or in the case of Hawaii, in the Hawaii Time Zone (2 hours behind the Pacific Time Zone).
Last year, Fresno St., San Diego St., and Boise St. tied for the conference title. Throw in two new teams (both 11-2) that finished in the top 25 in last year’s final poll, and the league should be stronger this season, but not as strong as when TCU was in the league.
We expect a little changing of the guard this season. We suspect Boise State to experience a rebuilding season and have their worst season in a decade. It is the first time our ratings have not listed BSU as the top-rated team in their league since 2005.
This league has produced multiple BCS Bowl qualifiers, and we believe there is a good chance that one more team could challenge for a spot this season. An October 26 road game against San Diego St. and a November 29 road game against San Jose St. and a win in the inaugural MWC title game are the three crucial games that must be victorious for Fresno St. If the Bulldogs win those three games, they should be 13-0. Our ratings have FSU favored in every game.
Additions: San Jose St. and Utah St. move from the now football defunct WAC.
Departures: None
Pre-season PiRate Ratings
Mountain West Conference
Mountain Division
Team
Conf.
Overall
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Utah St.
0-0
0-0
100.9
92.5
101.1
Boise St.
0-0
0-0
100.0
102.3
101.7
Colorado St.
0-0
0-0
90.3
94.4
90.8
Wyoming
0-0
0-0
85.8
85.6
85.9
Air Force
0-0
0-0
81.3
87.7
81.2
New Mexico
0-0
0-0
78.8
83.9
79.4
West Division
Team
Conf.
Overall
PiRate
Mean
Bias
Fresno St.
0-0
0-0
104.0
101.4
105.0
San Jose St.
0-0
0-0
100.3
94.9
100.7
San Diego St.
0-0
0-0
98.6
98.3
98.8
Nevada
0-0
0-0
88.5
96.2
89.5
U N L V
0-0
0-0
85.7
92.0
86.3
Hawaii
0-0
0-0
82.0
82.4
82.4
League Averages
91.4
92.6
91.9
Official Pre-season Media Poll
Mountain Division
Pos
Team
Points
1st Place
1
Boise St.
245
40
2
Utah St.
204
1
3
Air Force
143
0
4
Wyoming
116
0
5
Colorado St.
90
0
6
New Mexico
63
0
West Division
Pos
Team
Points
1st Place
1
Fresno St.
243
39
2
San Diego St.
181
1
3
San Jose St.
172
1
4
Nevada
135
0
5
U N L V
71
0
6
Hawaii
59
0
2013 MOUNTAIN WEST FOOTBALL PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE TEAM
Offense
QB
Derek Carr *
Sr.
Fresno State
WR
Davante Adams *
So.
Fresno State
WR
Noel Grigsby
Sr.
San José State
RB
Kasey Carrier **
Sr.
New Mexico
RB
Adam Muema **
Jr.
San Diego State
OL
Charles Leno **
Sr.
Boise State
OL
Matt Paradis *
Sr.
Boise State
OL
Weston Richburg
Sr.
Colorado State
OL
Austin Wentworth *
Sr.
Fresno State
OL
Tyler Larsen
Sr.
Utah State
TE
Marcel Jensen
Sr.
Fresno State
Defense
DL
Demarcus Lawrence *
Jr.
Boise State
DL
Tyeler Davison *
Jr.
Fresno State
DL
Brock Hekking **
Jr.
Nevada
DL
Travis Raciti
Jr.
San José State
LB
Jake Fely **
Jr.
San Diego State
LB
Keith Smith
Sr.
San José State
LB
Kyler Fackrell
So.
Utah State
DB
L.J. Jones
Sr.
Fresno State
DB
Derron Smith *
Jr.
Fresno State
DB
Nat Berhe **
Sr.
San Diego State
DB
Bené Benwikere
Sr.
San José State
Specialists
P
Ben Skaer
Sr.
New Mexico
PK
Austin Lopez
So.
San José State
Ret.
Chase Clayton
Jr.
New Mexico
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year:
Derek Carr, Sr., QB, Fresno State
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year:
Derron Smith, Jr., DB, Fresno State
Preseason Spcl Teams Player of the Year:
Chase Clayton, Jr., KR, New Mexico
* – member of the 2012 All-Mountain West first team.
** – member of the 2012 All-Mountain West second team.
PiRate Ratings Summary
About Grades
93-100 A+
86-92 A
79-85 A-
72-78 B+
65-71 B
58-64 B-
51-57 C+
44-50 C
37-43 C-
30-36 D
0-29 F
About Predictions
Predictions are based on the PiRate Ratings with home field advantage factored in. The PiRate Ratings use different home field advantages for every game, since the opponent factors into the equation.
Mountain Division
Team
Utah St. Aggies
Head Coach
Matt Wells
Colors
Navy and White
City
Logan, UT
2012 Record
Conference
6-0 (in WAC)
Overall
11-2
Grades
Run Offense
67
Pass Offense
63
Run Defense
75
Pass Defense
61
Ratings
PiRate
100.9
Mean
92.5
Bias
101.1
Rankings
PiRate
53
Mean
93
Bias
50
Prediction
Conference
7-1
Overall
8-5 (Lose MWC Championship Game)
Team
Boise St. Broncos
Head Coach
Chris Petersen
Colors
Blue and Orange
City
Boise, ID
2012 Record
Conference
7-1
Overall
11-2
Grades
Run Offense
59
Pass Offense
67
Run Defense
63
Pass Defense
69
Ratings
PiRate
100.0
Mean
102.3
Bias
101.7
Rankings
PiRate
58
Mean
49
Bias
47
Prediction
Conference
5-3
Overall
7-5
Team
Colorado St. Rams
Head Coach
Jim McElwain
Colors
Forest Green and Gold
City
Ft. Collins, CO
2012 Record
Conference
4-4
Overall
4-8
Grades
Run Offense
55
Pass Offense
55
Run Defense
51
Pass Defense
59
Ratings
PiRate
90.3
Mean
94.4
Bias
90.8
Rankings
PiRate
91
Mean
86
Bias
91
Prediction
Conference
5-3
Overall
7-5
Team
Wyoming Cowboys
Head Coach
Dave Christensen
Colors
Brown and Gold
City
Laramie, WY
2012 Record
Conference
3-5
Overall
4-8
Grades
Run Offense
41
Pass Offense
69
Run Defense
40
Pass Defense
68
Ratings
PiRate
85.8
Mean
85.6
Bias
85.9
Rankings
PiRate
103
Mean
114
Bias
105
Prediction
Conference
2-6
Overall
5-7
Team
Air Force Falcons
Head Coach
Troy Calhoun
Colors
Blue and Silver
City
Colorado Springs, CO
2012 Record
Conference
5-3
Overall
6-7
Grades
Run Offense
69
Pass Offense
28
Run Defense
43
Pass Defense
50
Ratings
PiRate
81.3
Mean
87.7
Bias
81.2
Rankings
PiRate
115
Mean
107
Bias
114
Prediction
Conference
2-6
Overall
3-9
Team
New Mexico Lobos
Head Coach
Bob Davie
Colors
Cherry and Silver
City
Albuquerque, NM
2012 Record
Conference
1-7
Overall
4-9
Grades
Run Offense
66
Pass Offense
26
Run Defense
45
Pass Defense
44
Ratings
PiRate
78.8
Mean
83.8
Bias
79.4
Rankings
PiRate
120
Mean
117
Bias
119
Prediction
Conference
1-7
Overall
2-10
Team
Fresno St. Bulldogs
Head Coach
Tim DeRuyter
Colors
Cardinal and Blue
City
Fresno, CA
2012 Record
Conference
7-1
Overall
9-4
Grades
Run Offense
Pass Offense
Run Defense
Pass Defense
Ratings
PiRate
104.0
Mean
101.4
Bias
105.0
Rankings
PiRate
44
Mean
56
Bias
43
Prediction
Conference
8-0
Overall
13-0 (win MWC title game)
Team
San Jose St. Spartans
Head Coach
Ron Caragher
Colors
Blue and Gold
City
San Jose
2012 Record
Conference
5-1 (in WAC)
Overall
11-2
Grades
Run Offense
39
Pass Offense
83
Run Defense
63
Pass Defense
69
Ratings
PiRate
100.3
Mean
94.9
Bias
100.7
Rankings
PiRate
56
Mean
85
Bias
55
Prediction
Conference
7-1
Overall
9-3
Team
San Diego St. Aztecs
Head Coach
Rocky Long
Colors
Red and Black
City
San Diego
2012 Record
Conference
7-1
Overall
9-4
Grades
Run Offense
62
Pass Offense
56
Run Defense
76
Pass Defense
63
Ratings
PiRate
98.6
Mean
98.3
Bias
98.8
Rankings
PiRate
66
Mean
66
Bias
65
Prediction
Conference
6-2
Overall
8-4
Team
Nevada Wolf Pack
Head Coach
Brian Polian
Colors
Blue and Silver
City
Reno, NV
2012 Record
Conference
4-4
Overall
7-6
Grades
Run Offense
Pass Offense
Run Defense
Pass Defense
Ratings
PiRate
88.5
Mean
96.2
Bias
89.5
Rankings
PiRate
97
Mean
80
Bias
96
Prediction
Conference
3-5
Overall
4-8
Team
U N L V Rebels
Head Coach
Bobby Hauck
Colors
Scarlet and Gray
City
Las Vegas
2012 Record
Conference
2-6
Overall
2-11
Grades
Run Offense
55
Pass Offense
62
Run Defense
31
Pass Defense
51
Ratings
PiRate
85.7
Mean
92.0
Bias
86.3
Rankings
PiRate
104
Mean
95
Bias
103
Prediction
Conference
2-6
Overall
4-8
Team
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Head Coach
Norm Chow
Colors
Green, Black, and Silver
City
Honolulu
2012 Record
Conference
1-7
Overall
3-9
Grades
Run Offense
27
Pass Offense
62
Run Defense
39
Pass Defense
53
Ratings
PiRate
82.0
Mean
82.4
Bias
82.4
Rankings
PiRate
114
Mean
120
Bias
113
Prediction
Conference
0-8
Overall
1-11
Comments Off on 2013 Mountain West Conference Football Preview
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