NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 9: November 3-7, 2016

Our First Look At The Playoff Hunt
We like to wait for the first half of the season to come to its end before beginning our playoff projections, as it is virtually useless to start it earlier than the halfway point. With bye weeks, this is sort of the 7 1/2 game point and not the exact midway point, but then next week will be past halfway.

The playoff race is still wide open for most of the teams. In the AFC, Cleveland is the only team with zero chance to make the playoffs. In the NFC, San Francisco is the only team with virtually no chance. That means 30 teams are still alive.
At the other end of the perspective, New England is basically the only team that is close to 100% assured to make the playoffs. This creates a wide open second half race for 11 of the 12 spots among 29 teams.

Let’s start with the old proverbial “If the season ended today” look.

AFC
East: New England #1 Seed
North: Pittsburgh #4 Seed
South: Houston #3 Seed
West: Oakland #2 Seed
Wildcard: Kansas City #5 Seed
Wildcard: Denver #6 Seed

NFC
East: Dallas #1 Seed
North: Minnesota #2 Seed
South: Atlanta #4 Seed
West: Seattle #3 Seed
Wildcard: Green Bay #5 Seed
Wildcard: New York #6 Seed

In the AFC, the wildcard teams have just two losses, and no other competitor is within a game, as the 7th and 8th seeds this week are Tennessee and Buffalo, both at 4-4. The NFC is much closer, as the 4-3 Packers and Giants hold a precarious place on their wildcard spots. There are two other three-loss teams in Philadelphia and Washington, and there are four additional four-loss teams just one game back.

Here is our look at each division at this point in the year.

AFC
East
New England has this division wrapped up even if Tom Brady were to become injured. The Patriots are up three games, and they would have to go 2-6 in the second half to surrender this division to any division rival. Rex Ryan fired his offensive coordinator after a Monday Night game in which the Bills’ defense was embarrassed. The Bills’ defense keeps stubbing its toes week after week, and the offense cannot score enough points to win consistently. This has the look of an 8-8 team that will miss the playoffs. The Dolphins and Jets don’t have the talent to get to 9-7, and it will probably take a 10-6 or better record to become a wildcard this year.

North
Pittsburgh is a very weak 4-3 team with Ben Roethlisberger out. If he miraculously recovers from his knee surgery and plays in the next week or two, his already weak scrambling skills will be that much worse, and the Steelers don’t have an offensive line capable of sustaining the pass rush long enough for Big Ben to survey the field like he tends to do. Thus, we believe that 3-4-1 Cincinnati and 3-4 Baltimore are still very much in this race. This could be the year where it only takes eight wins to earn the division title, whether it be Pittsburgh or Baltimore at 8-8 or Cincinnati at 8-7-1.

South
Can Houston’s defense overcome its inconsistent offense and hang on to the division lead? Tennessee started 1-3 and is now 4-4, but the Titans need another wide receiver to become potent enough to storm past the Texans. Indianapolis and Jacksonville have not shown any tendency to play consecutive games like they deserve to make the playoffs, so for now, we believe Houston will be a weak 9-7 division winner.

West
We cannot find anything to fault the three top teams in this division. Oakland has the easiest schedule of the trio, but they also have the weakest defense of the three. We forecast that Denver will go 12-4, Kansas City will go 11-5, and Oakand will go 10-6, all three making the playoffs.

NFC
East
Dallas has the overall best record in the conference, so could Jason Garrett (Jerry Jones) be foolish enough to bring Tony Romo back to the starting quarterback job when he is healthy enough to play again? Actually, there is precedent, and one quarterback from the past can be used as an example.
Earl Morrall was the backup quarterback for the Baltimore Colts in 1968, when legendary great Johnny Unitas could not get healthy enough to play. Morrall earned the NFL MVP Award and guided the Colts to the NFL’s best record at 13-1 for Coach Don Shula, and then he led the team to back-to-back playoff wins to win the 1968 NFL Championship by beating the Vikings and Browns.
In the Super Bowl, Unitas was healthy enough to play again, but Shula went with the arm that got him there. Morrall performed poorly against the New York Jets’ quick defense, and by the time Shula inserted Unitas into the game, it was too late for Johnny U to bring the Colts back.
Four years later, Shula was the head coach of the Miami Dolphins. His start quarterback Bob Griese went down to injury early in the season and was done until January. Once again, Shula turned to the backup, which just so happened to be Morrall again. Morrall repeated the 1968 performance, winning the league MVP award as he guided Miami to a perfect 14-0 record. By the time the playoffs started, Griese was healthy enough to play again. Using his past experience with the Colts, Shula placed Griese back in the starting slot, and Griese guided the Dolphins to the Super Bowl title.

There is a big difference between that Dolphins’ team and this Dallas team. Miami only needed a signal caller that was competent at carrying out ball fakes while handing the ball to the league’s best fullback in Larry Csonka and one of the top halfbacks in Mercury Morris. Miami won by passing the ball about a dozen times per game, letting its league best defense carry the team. Dallas cannot get to the Super Bowl by riding its defense and handing the ball to Ezekiel Elliott 30 times a game. They need a pass rush, and Elliott needs a QB that is a threat to fake to him and run the ball in the opposite direction, which is not Romo.

The rest of the division can all come back and beat out Dallas if the Cowboys falter in the second half, or if Romo becomes the starter again. All four teams are good enough to win any of the other NFC divisions this year, but they will beat up on each other and be lucky to provide one wildcard member much less two. Washington looks to us to be the best of the other three, but the Redskins have a tough second half schedule. Philadelphia has the rookie quarterback, and the Giants have a defense that hasn’t gelled this year, but their offense can score enough points to get to 10-6 with a little luck.

North
There’s a twin personality in the Twin Cities, as Minnesota has seen the best of times for five weeks and the worst of times during the last two weeks. The Vikings’ offense looks easy to defend without Adrian Peterson, and Sam Bradford has shown he is closer to Marcia Brady than Tom Brady the last two weeks. Even if the Vikings go 9-7, they could still win the division, because Green Bay is uber-wounded, Detroit is mediocre on both sides of the ball, and Chicago is Chicago.

South
This division looked like Atlanta’s in a runaway a couple weeks ago, but the Saints and Panthers may not be dead just yet. With Drew Brees guiding New Orleans to 30 point games, the Saints can recover to a 10-6 record in the second half. Carolina is still a mystery team, but the Panthers looked like the 2015 NFC Champions last week and could easily go on a long winning streak. Tampa Bay is not yet there and needs another year at the minimum.

West
Seattle will win this by default. Arizona might fall to third place in this division, and the Rams match the personality of Mr. 8 and 8, Jeff Fisher. The 49ers could be pressed to win another game this year, as Chip Kelly does not have the pieces in place to run his system. Whereas just a couple players kneel before the game, the entire team finds itself on the ground for the next 60 minutes of action.

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
New England	110.7	109.2	111.8	110.6	67	44
Buffalo	103.2	103.4	103.7	103.4	63	40
N. Y. Jets	98.6	97.1	99.3	98.3	58	40
Miami	96.8	97.3	96.7	96.9	59	38
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Pittsburgh	103.9	103.4	104.8	104.0	63	41
Cincinnati	102.0	101.7	102.2	102.0	61	41
Baltimore	97.4	99.2	96.8	97.8	61	37
Cleveland	90.3	90.8	90.2	90.4	57	33
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Houston	98.1	99.0	97.9	98.3	61	37
Indianapolis	96.3	97.8	95.7	96.6	62	35
Tennessee	96.1	97.6	95.7	96.5	58	39
Jacksonville	92.4	94.2	91.5	92.7	58	35
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Denver	107.1	105.3	107.0	106.4	63	43
Kansas City	104.4	104.2	105.0	104.5	65	40
San Diego	100.4	101.1	100.3	100.6	65	36
Oakland	98.6	99.4	98.8	98.9	64	35
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Philadelphia	104.0	102.0	103.7	103.2	63	40
Dallas	101.4	100.8	101.7	101.3	61	40
Washington	100.3	100.1	100.3	100.2	62	38
N.Y. Giants	98.6	98.5	98.6	98.6	62	37
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Minnesota	103.8	102.8	103.9	103.5	60	44
Green Bay	102.3	101.9	102.2	102.1	63	39
Detroit	98.3	98.2	98.0	98.2	61	37
Chicago	95.4	94.0	95.1	94.9	56	39
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Carolina	103.4	103.1	103.5	103.3	61	42
Atlanta	102.6	104.0	102.9	103.1	68	35
New Orleans	99.0	100.4	98.9	99.4	65	34
Tampa Bay	96.5	96.9	96.1	96.5	60	37
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Seattle	106.5	104.0	107.1	105.8	62	44
Arizona	105.1	103.4	105.4	104.6	66	39
Los Angeles	98.5	99.6	98.2	98.8	57	42
San Francisco	90.1	91.3	89.4	90.3	53	37

This Week’s Games

November 3-7, 2016
Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Totals
Tampa Bay	Atlanta	-3.6	-4.6	-4.3	55
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	-4.0	-1.7	-5.5	46
Cleveland	Dallas	-8.6	-7.5	-9.0	47
Kansas City	Jacksonville	15.0	13.0	16.5	49
Miami	New York Jets	1.2	2.9	0.4	40
Minnesota	Detroit	8.0	7.1	8.4	42
New York Giants	Philadelphia	-3.4	-1.5	-3.1	50
Los Angeles	Carolina	-1.4	0.1	-1.8	35
San Francisco	New Orleans	-5.4	-5.6	-6.0	48
Green Bay	Indianapolis	9.0	7.1	9.5	53
San Diego	Tennessee	7.3	6.5	7.8	50
Oakland	Denver	-5.5	-2.9	-5.2	51
Seattle	Buffalo	6.8	4.1	6.7	42

 

 

 

NFL Ratings And Spreads For Week 1: September 8-12,2016

The 2016-17 NFL season kicks off with a lot of changes from last year.  Some were expected in advance, while some were not expected until the last fortnight.  Take a look at some of the key changes.

Peyton Manning retired, and Brock Osweiler left Super Bowl Champion Denver.  The Broncos added Mark Sanchez and then released him, leaving Trevor Siemian as the opening night starter. Siemian suffered a torn ACL in 2015.  He comes from the Spread Formation at Northwestern, and he has never taken a snap in a regular season NFL game.  Normally, when a team goes with a raw talent, they have a graybeard in reserve, but the number two man will be rookie Paxton Lynch from the University of Memphis.

Tom Brady will be a spectator for four weeks, leaving the New England Patriots about a touchdown to 10 points weaker for their first four games.  Our ratings reflect this deduction, and in week five, New England’s rating will rise by several points.

Philadelphia begins anew with a new coach in Doug Pederson, and a new quarterback.  Carson Wentz, a rookie from FCS North Dakota State, will eventually become the starter when he is healthy, so for now the Eagles must get by with Chase Daniel.

The Rams have returned to Los Angeles, and until their new palace is constructed, they will be playing once again at the venerable, archaic Los Angeles Coliseum, where they once ruled the West Coast with stars like Roman Gabriel, Dick Bass, Jack Snow, and the renowned Fearsome Foursome defensive line that led the universe in quarterback sacks.  When the Rams last played a real game at the Coliseum, they won the NFC Championship and lost the Super Bowl to Pittsburgh.  That was the 1979 season, 37 years ago.  According to Pro Football Reference, The Rams are 143-77-8 in the old stadium, one of the best home field advantages in NFL history.

There are four new head coaches in the league this year.  Besides the previously mentioned Pederson with Philadelphia, Dirk Koetter takes over at Tampa Bay, Adam Gase assumed command in Miami, and Ben McAdoo inherits the perpetual hot seat with the New York Giants.  Koetter has a nice track record as a college head coach and long time offensive coordinator at both the collegiate and professional levels.  Gase brings the utmost endorsement of Peyton Manning, after his offense led the Broncos to all sorts of records in 2013.  McAdoo is another offensive guru and has the endorsement of Eli Manning.  Pederson also comes from the attack side of the ball, where he was Andy Reid’s offensive coordinator at Kansas City.

Now for the two major late developments.  Injuries to Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota and Tony Romo in Dallas, have led to us adjusting our ratings at the 11th hour.  The Vikings plucked Sam Bradford from Philly, and thus their rating does not suffer much.  However, combining Romo’s injury with numerous other injuries and suspensions, the Cowboys saw their rating drop by almost as many points as the Pats without Brady.  The late signing of Sanchez does not swing the pendulum much, since rookie Dak Prescott will be the starter.

The opening ratings for this season indicate to us that this will be a season with a lot more parity than in recent years.  We could foresee many teams still in the playoff hunt in Mid-December with a lengthy list of playoff possibilities heading into the final week.  In seasons like this, a last place or third place team from the previous year could take advantage of the weak schedule and sneak into the playoffs as a wild card team with an 8-8 or 9-7 record.

The sexy pick this year is Oakland, where the Raiders have a powerful offense and improving defense, but the AFC West is really competitive this year.  Denver’s offense will backslide, and we see a pattern in the defenses led by Wade Phillips, where the teams he has led in the past do not sustain the same defensive strength the year after they dominated.  San Diego is capable of challenging in this division, so all four teams could be in a two or three win window at the end.

The Giants went 6-10 last year, and in a weaker division, it is not impossible for Eli and Company to go 9-7 this year and make the playoffs.  Tampa Bay and New Orleans both have just enough talent to eke out a possible 9-7 season, but Atlanta is also capable of going 10-6 or better and even challenge Carolina for the NFC South.

There are a couple of teams that appear to have all the pieces in place to go far this year.  In the AFC, after Brady’s return, the Patriots could go 10-2 or better and enter the playoffs as the team to beat in the conference.  Cincinnati is looking at a do or die season to make hay.  A team cannot stay consistently good for that many years without a Manning or Brady.  The Bengals were much closer to winning a playoff game last year than they have since they played in the Super Bowl in 1989.  This should be the year where Cinti finally advances to the next round of the playoffs, if the Bengals stay healthy.

The AFC South appears to be the weakest division in the NFL.  Houston will be a bit weaker this year, even if Osweiler puts up good numbers.  The Texans have a lot of issues on the defensive side, especially if J.J. Watt cannot play at full speed.  Indianapolis has a lot of holes, but the Colts have the return of Andrew Luck.  Jacksonville is all enthused over a great draft class and an improved roster, but the Jaguars are still at least a year away.  As for Tennessee, the Titans could possibly be looking at the top pick in the draft for the second year in a row.

The NFC’s stength lies in the West, where Arizona and Seattle both have Super Bowl caliber squads, and Los Angeles has the material to challenge for an 8-8 or 9-7 record.  San Francisco should challenge Tennessee and Cleveland for the worst overall record.

In the North, the Vikings still have a lot of talent, but we doubt Adrian Peterson will have the same or even similar season on the ground as he did last year.  The mobile Bridgewater had to be accounted for as a possible bootleg runner when Peterson was the lone back in the backfield.  Bradford is not a threat to run a counter away from the expected flow.  We expect the Vikings to settle around the .500 mark.  Green Bay should waltz to the division title, but keep an eye on Detroit.  The Lions were 6-2 in the second half of the season after a horrendous 1-7 start, and we believe they are closer to a 10-6 team than a 6-10 team.  As for the Bears, if things don’t go well in September, then the Midway Monsters may be more like mice and fall into the 10-12 loss area, where the next coach will choose a new quarterback.

We will debut our playoff projections in October.  Here are our beginning PiRate Ratings for 2016. Remember, these ratings reflect Brady, Romo, and Bridgewater not playing.  They also reflect Watt playing at about 70% effectiveness, as our ratings have algorithms for starting players not playing or playing at less than full strength.

You will also notice that we have added an offense and defense rating this year, and we will issue both predicted spreads and predicted totals.  And, unlike many other ratings, our home field advantages vary by the game.  Seattle’s advantage can be a couple points different when they host Miami as opposed to San Francisco.  Distance, weather, and playing field play an important part, as well as things like consecutive road games and playing on a Thursday or Saturday as opposed to Sunday or Monday.

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
A F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
N. Y. Jets	103.5	101.0	104.7	103.1	61	42
New England	100.5	98.1	100.8	99.8	61	39
Buffalo	99.2	100.1	99.4	99.6	59	41
Miami	94.7	96.3	94.3	95.1	59	36
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Cincinnati	107.5	106.9	108.4	107.6	65	43
Pittsburgh	103.7	103.2	104.8	103.9	64	40
Baltimore	98.6	100.9	98.2	99.2	62	37
Cleveland	91.3	92.9	90.8	91.7	58	34
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Houston	101.0	102.7	101.0	101.6	64	38
Indianapolis	97.5	100.0	96.4	98.0	61	37
Jacksonville	97.2	99.1	96.4	97.6	58	40
Tennessee	92.4	94.9	91.7	93.0	54	39
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Denver	105.8	102.0	105.9	104.5	62	43
Kansas City	102.8	102.1	104.1	103.0	63	40
Oakland	98.6	98.8	98.6	98.7	62	37
San Diego	97.2	98.4	96.7	97.4	62	35
N F C
East	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Washington	100.0	101.0	100.0	100.3	61	39
N.Y. Giants	98.7	97.7	98.4	98.3	62	36
Philadelphia	98.8	95.1	98.0	97.3	60	37
Dallas	93.0	93.4	92.4	92.9	54	39
North	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Green Bay	104.7	103.8	104.8	104.4	65	39
Minnesota	102.4	101.1	103.0	102.2	60	42
Detroit	100.7	99.9	100.3	100.3	63	37
Chicago	97.1	94.9	96.9	96.3	56	40
South	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Carolina	109.3	108.2	110.4	109.3	65	44
New Orleans	99.5	102.5	98.9	100.3	63	37
Atlanta	96.7	99.8	96.6	97.7	61	37
Tampa Bay	96.2	97.3	95.1	96.2	59	37
West	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Avg	Off	Def
Arizona	109.9	106.9	111.1	109.3	68	41
Seattle	109.3	105.6	110.6	108.5	66	43
Los Angeles	99.0	100.6	98.9	99.5	59	41
San Francisco	93.3	94.8	92.6	93.6	56	38

Spreads for Week 1

Home	Visitor	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Score
Denver	Carolina	-0.1	-2.7	-1.0	20-21
Atlanta	Tampa Bay	2.5	4.5	3.5	24-20
Baltimore	Buffalo	1.9	3.3	1.3	23-21
Houston	Chicago	6.9	10.8	7.1	24-16
Jacksonville	Green Bay	-4.5	-1.7	-5.4	20-24
Kansas City	San Diego	8.6	6.7	10.4	30-21
New Orleans	Oakland	3.9	6.7	3.3	28-23
N. Y. Jets	Cincinnati	-1.0	-2.9	-0.7	19-22
Philadelphia	Cleveland	10.5	5.2	10.2	30-21
Tennessee	Minnesota	-7.5	-3.7	-8.8	14-21
Seattle	Miami	18.6	13.3	20.3	31-14
Dallas	N. Y. Giants	-2.7	-1.3	-3.0	19-21
Indianapolis	Detroit	-0.7	2.6	-1.4	24-23
Arizona	New England	12.4	11.8	13.3	30-17
Washington	Pittsburgh	-1.2	0.3	-2.3	23-24
San Francisco	Los Angeles	-2.7	-2.8	-3.3	17-20

 

 

 

 

2015 NFC East Preview

2014–Dallas Cowboys

2013–Philadelphia Eagles

2012–Washington Redskins

2011–New York Giants

The NFC East is the only division where all four teams have won a division title in the last four years.  Three of the four have legitimate shots to win it in 2015, not because they are all great.  This division could easily go to a 9-7 team, and it would not surprise us one bit if three teams go 9-7.

Dallas lost in the second round of the playoffs to Green Bay in Lambeau Field at the end of the game last year.  If you are over 55, you can remember when this happened the first go around.  That happened in 1967, and then in 1968, Dallas had what many believe to be their best team ever, but the Cowboys were blown out in the first round of the playoffs to the Browns and did not make it to the Super Bowl for two more years after that.  History could repeat itself this year.  The Cowboys could get back to the playoffs and lose in the first game, because their offense figures to be too one dimensional.  Tony Romo had some pressure taken off having the top runner in the league last year, but now he has an unproven Joseph Randle or an over-the-hill Darren McFadden in the backfield.  The Cowboys’ defense is still top-rate, but we do not expect Dallas to score 467 points again this year.

 

New York Giants coach Tom Coughlin may be at the end of the line.  The Giants went 6-10 last year, and it may take a record reversal to save Coughlin’s job.  Eli Manning to Odell Beckham became a big deal every Sunday in 2014, and with Reuben Randle on the other side, the Giants might move the ball through the air like nobody else in the NFC.  The running game will not shine, but with Rashad Jennings and Andre Jennings returning and adding Shane Vereen to the roster, the Giants will convert short yardage situations into first downs well enough to maintain possession of the ball.  A weak front seven, something Coughlin’s best teams always had, may be the liability that keeps New York from getting back to the top of the division.

 

Philadelphia made a lot of changes in the off-season sending starting quarterback Nick Foles to the Rams for Sam Bradford and then continuing with the acquisition of DeMarco Murray, he of the 1,845 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns for Dallas last year.  But, then the Eagles continued to change personnel like a team bent on starting over from scratch.  Stars Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, and Trent Cole departed.   Nate Allen, Bradley Fisher, Cary Williams, and Casey Matthews joine Cole to create five new starters on defense.  It will be an interesting season in the City of Brotherly Boos, and we think the Eagles will get their share from the hometown fans when they figure to come up short once again.

 

The Jay Gruden era in the nation’s capital may last just two years, or even less if the Washington Redskins don’t improve at the start of the 2015 season.  The schedule actually helps the Redskins this season, as the first seven games prior to their bye week give them chances to win four or five times.  After the bye, wins may be hard to come by.  Robert Griffin III begins the regular season recuperating from a concussion, and Alfred Morris is still around.  The defense figures to be a little better with the addition of Dashon Goldson, but the Redskins figure to be looking up at the other three teams in the division.

 

DALLAS COWBOYS

Cowboys Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Dez Bryant
WR	Terrance Williams
WR	Cole Beasely
TE	Jason Whitten
LT	Tyron Smith
LG	Ronald Leary
C	Travis Frederick
RG	Zach Martin
RT	Doug Free
QB	Tony Romo
HB	Joseph Randle
FB	Tyler Clutts
Defense
DE	DeMarcus Lawrence
NT	Nick Hayden
DT	Tyrone Crawford
DE	Jeremy Mincey/Greg Hardy
LB	Kyle Wilber
LB	Anthony Hitchens
LB	Sean Lee
CB	Brandon Carr
S	J. J. Wilcox
S	Barry Church
CB	Morris Claiborne
N5	Byron Jones
Special
Kicker	Dan Bailey
Punter	Chris Jones
KR	Lance Dunbar
PR	Cole Beasely

Dallas Cowboys
Head Coach	Jason Garrett
Off. Coordinator	Scott Linehan
Def. Coordinator	Rod Marinelli
2014 W-L-T	12-4-0
Pts	29.2
Opp	22.0
Ratings
PiRate	106.9
Mean	105.6
Bias	107.6
Average	106.7
Grades
Running	C-
Passing	A+
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	C-
Special Teams	B
Coaching + Intangibles	B
Predicted W-L	9-7-0
Division Rank	1
Conference Rank	3
Overall Rank	5
Postseason	Yes

 

NEW YORK GIANTS

Giants Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Odell Beckham, Jr.
WR	Rueben Randle
WR	Victor Cruz
TE	Larry Donnell
LT	Ereck Flowers
LG	Justin Pugh
C	Weston Richburg
RG	Geoff Schwartz
RT	Marshall Newhouse
QB	Eli Manning
HB	Rashad Jennings
FB	Henry Hynoski

New York Giants
Head Coach	Tom Coughlin
Off. Coordinator	Ben McAdoo
Def. Coordinator	Steve Spagnolo
2014 W-L-T	6-10-0
Pts	23.8
Opp	25.0
Ratings
PiRate	99.9
Mean	99.7
Bias	100.4
Average	100.0
Grades
Running	C
Passing	A-
Vs. Run	C-
Vs. Pass	C
Special Teams	A
Coaching + Intangibles	A-
Predicted W-L	9-7-0
Division Rank	3
Conference Rank	8
Overall Rank	16
Postseason	No

 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Eagles Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	Jordan Matthews
WR	Nelson Agholor
WR	Riley Cooper
TE	Zach Ertz
LT	Jason Peters
LG	Allen Barbre
C	Jason Kelce
RG	Andrew Gardner
RT	Lane Johnson
QB	Sam Bradford
HB	DeMarco Murray
FB	(NONE)
Defense
DE	Fletcher Cox
DT	Bennie Logan
DE	Cedric Thornton
LB	Connor Barwin
LB	Mychal Kendricks
LB	Kiko Alonso
LB	Brandon Graham
CB	Nolan Carroll
S	Malcolm Jenkins
S	Walter Thurmond
CB	Byron Maxwell
N5	Eric Rowe
Special
Kicker	Cody Parkey
Punter	Donnie Jones
KR	Josh Huff
PR	Darren Sproles

Philadelphia Eagles
Head Coach	Chip Kelly
Off. Coordinator	Pat Shurmur
Def. Coordinator	Bill Davis
2014 W-L-T	10-6-0
Pts	29.7
Opp	25.0
Ratings
PiRate	104.7
Mean	103.9
Bias	105.2
Average	104.6
Grades
Running	A
Passing	B
Vs. Run	A
Vs. Pass	C
Special Teams	A
Coaching + Intangibles	B+
Predicted W-L	9-7-0
Division Rank	2
Conference Rank	4
Overall Rank	8
Postseason	Yes

 

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Redskins Starting Lineup
Offense
WR	DeSean Jackson
WR	Pierre Garcon
WR	Andre Roberts
TE	Jordan Reed
LT	Trent Williams
LG	Shawn Lauvao
C	Kory Lichtensteiger
RG	Brandon Scherff
RT	Morgan Moses
QB	Robert Griffin III
HB	Alfred Morris
FB	Darrel Young
Defense
DE	Stephen Paea
NT	Terrance Knighton
DE	Jason Hatcher
LB	Ryan Kerrigan
LB	Keenan Robinson
LB	Perry Riley
LB	Trent Murphy
CB	DeAngelo Hall
S	Duke Ihenacho
S	Dashon Golden
CB	Chris Culliver
N5	Bashaud Breeland
Special
Kicker	Kai Forbath
Punter	Tress Way
KR	Andre Roberts
PR	Andre Roberts

Washington Redskins
Head Coach	Jay Gruden
Off. Coordinator	Sean McVay
Def. Coordinator	Joe Barry
2014 W-L-T	4-12-0
Pts	18.8
Opp	27.4
Ratings
PiRate	93.2
Mean	92.1
Bias	92.5
Average	92.6
Grades
Running	C+
Passing	C-
Vs. Run	C
Vs. Pass	C
Special Teams	C
Coaching + Intangibles	D
Predicted W-L	6-10-0
Division Rank	4
Conference Rank	15
Overall Rank	29
Postseason	No

 

2013 NFC West Division Preview

2013 N F C West Preview

Do you remember how the season began for the four NFC West teams last year?  After four weeks, who was in first place?  Was it NFC Champion-to-be San Francisco?  Was it the Seattle Seahawks thanks to their gift of a win at home over the Packers on Monday Night Football?  Or, maybe it was the St. Louis Rams with new coach Jeff Fisher?

 

Wrong on all three guesses.  Future last place team Arizona led at 4-0, with three wins over teams expected to be really good.  The Cardinals topped Seattle in week one, then won at New England in week two.  When they defeated Philly in week three, it was meaningful since the Eagles were supposed to challenge for the NFC East crown.  Even an overtime win over Miami in week four looked impressive.  At 4-0, pundits believed this was a much better team than the one that went to the Super Bowl a few years earlier.

 

St. Louis stood at 2-2 after four weeks with wins over two teams that would make the playoffs.  Seattle was also 2-2, but everybody knew they should have been 1-3 and would have been 1-3 had the real referees been there on that fateful Monday night.

 

The San Francisco 49ers were 3-1, with the loss coming to a Minnesota team that nobody believed could go 8-8 much less the 10-6 that they eventually would achieve.

 

That, my friends, is just one example why the NFL is so hard to predict.  Who could believe that the mighty Cardinals of September 2012 would turn into the lowly Cardinals of December 2012.  Nine consecutive losses followed that 4-0 start, and the first eight of those were rather close games.  The ninth loss was a 58-0 pasting at Seattle, who by this time was looking like the best team in the NFL.

 

The swoon cost highly competent head coach Ken Whisenhunt his job.  Whis ended up at San Diego as the new offensive coordinator.  In his place comes the hot offensive coordinator of 2012.  Bruce Arians took over at Indianapolis after Chuck Pagano had to take medical leave, and he merely guided the surprising Colts to a playoff spot.  We believe Arians knows his stuff.  The former offensive assistant at Alabama under Bear Bryant has just one head coaching position on his resume.  He guided Temple to two winning seasons in the 1980’s at a time when winning seasons at Temple were as hard to come by as winning seasons with the Houston Astros.  Arians will get everything possible out of the Cardinal offense, and the team has improved its defense through the draft.  Quarterback Carson Palmer will bring the vertical passing game to the desert, and Larry Fitzgerald should rebound with a 1,000+ yard receiving year.  Michael Floyd showed flashes of brilliance last year even with the Cardinals shuffling quarterbacks like a deck of cards.  He will command enough attention to keep defenses honest, and he will also help the tight ends find more open spaces in the shorter zones.

 

In our opinion, the key to the offense this year is Rashard Mendenhall.  If the former Steeler star can rebound after suffering through an ACL injury last year, then this offense will move the ball and score more points this year.  If he is just a mere shell of his former self, then Palmer will be forced to throw the ball down the field too many times.  It will lead to inconsistency and predictability—failure!

 

St. Louis actually won the division last year if you go by division standings alone.  The Rams swept Arizona, went 1-0-1 against San Francisco, and split with Seattle.  Losses to lowly Detroit and Miami kept the Rams out of the playoffs.  The Rams may see the most benefit from their draft and free agent pickup of anybody.  First round picks Tavon Austin and Alec Ogletree will start from the beginning.  Third round pick T. J. McDonald has cracked the starting lineup as well.  Free agent acquisitions Jared Cook and Jake Long will have big impacts.  Cook could be the steal of the free agent signees this year, as he never developed at Tennessee.  He has looked like the star he was pegged to become under offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.  Fisher’s offenses in the past have relied heavily on throwing to the tight end to convert third down situations.  Having a third place schedule could help bump the Rams up to the plus side of .500, but it might be asking too much to expect this team to make the playoffs.

 

Seattle closed the season looking like the 2007 New England Patriots, at least on the scoreboard.  Those five wins that pushed them into the playoffs came by an average score of 39-12!  Russell Wilson proved to be the best of a great crop of new quarterbacks, and there is no reason to doubt that he won’t continue to flourish in the great Northwest.  He came close to averaging eight yards per pass attempt, a mark equivalent to batting .350 in the Major Leagues.  Receivers Golden Tate and Sidney Rice are capable of having better seasons than they did last year, and if Marshawn Lynch can replicate his 2012 season this year, the Seahawks will contend for the conference championship.  If they can get home field advantage, it will be tough to keep this team out of the Super Bowl.

 

San Francisco is our mystery team for 2013.  How can we say that out of the NFC Champion?  First, we are worried that Frank Gore is about to hit that wall that most running backs in their 30’s smash into when their legs refuse to respond as quickly to the signals sent to it from the brain.  He could still lead the team in rushing, but we suspect his average per carry is going to head south this year.  That could force Colin Kaepernick to try to make up for the decline by running a few too many times.  This new trend of quarterbacks running the ball as part of the offensive game plan is still very risky.  Just one hit could turn the fate of the team over to Colt McCoy, and we do not see McCoy as the type that can lead this team back to the Super Bowl.  So, we have a mystery here this year.

 

If Kaepernick can stay healthy for 16 games, and if Gore can get one more big year out of his legs, then this team is by far the best in the NFC.  However, the fall down the pack could be brutal if either star cannot perform up to their 2012 standards.  Add to this uncertainty the fact that this team must start the year without Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham, and their draft class has more wounded players than healthy players, and 2013 could be a rough beginning with the first five games coming against Green Bay, Seattle, Indianapolis, St. Louis, and Houston.  We would not be surprised if the 49ers are just 2-3 at this point and no better than 3-2.  At that point, if the team is healthy, they could almost run the table, but we believe they will fall a couple times after their week nine bye.eH

 

We have added a new wrinkle to our coverage this year.  In the past, friends of ours have asked us if we knew how to recreate the exact colors of their favorite team so that they could print those colors on their computer.  We have found this information from multiple sites in the last couple of months, and we are going to show you the RGB numbers so you can replicate those colors.  These can be used in graphics programs, but it can easily be used in MS-Word and MS-Excel.

 

Here are the official colors for the NFC West.

West	Color	Red	Green	Blue
Arizona Cardinals	Cardinal	151	35	63
	Black	17	28	36
	White	255	255	255
St. Louis Rams	Millenium Blue	0	33	71
	New Century Gold	149	119	77
	White	255	255	255
San Francisco 49ers	Cardinal	151	35	63
	Metallic Gold	142	110	77
	Black	17	28	36
Seattle Seahawks	Royal Blue	0	51	141
	Green	0	133	66
	Silver	133	136	139

 

 

2012 Final Standings & PiRate Ratings

NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp Seattle Seahawks 112.2 110.7 109.7 11-5-0 412 245 San Francisco 49ers 108.4 107.9 107.5 11-4-1 397 273 St. Louis Rams 98.6 98.6 98.5 7-8-1 299 348 Arizona Cardinals 95.0 94.6 94.3 5-11-0 250 357

 

2013 Preseason PiRate Ratings

West	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco 49ers	108.4	107.9	108.6
Seattle Seahawks	105.6	105.6	105.5
St. Louis Rams	98.7	99.9	98.0
Arizona Cardinals	95.0	97.5	94.7

 

PiRate Previews

 

Team	Arizona Cardinals
Head Coach	Bruce Arians
O-Coord.	Harold Goodwin
D-Coord.	Todd Bowles
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Carson Palmer
Running Back	Rashard Mendenhall
Wide Receiver	Larry Fitzgerald
Wide Receiver	Michael Floyd
Tight End	Rob Housler
Tight End	Kory Sperry
Left Tackle	Levi Brown
Left Guard	Daryn Colledge
Center	Lyle Sendlein
Right Guard	Paul Fanaika
Right Tackle	Eric Winston
	Defense
Left End	Calais Campbell
Nose Tackle	Dan Williams
Right Tackle	Darnell Dockett
Left OLB	Sam Acho
Left ILB	Jasper Brinkley
Right ILB	Karlos Dansby
Right OLB	Lorenzo Alexander
Left CB	Patrick Peterson
Right CB	Jerraud Powers
Strong Safety	Yeremiah Bell
Free Safety	Rashad Johnson
	Special Teams
Kicker	Jay Feely
Punter	Dave Zastudil
K-Return	Javier Arenas
P-Return	Patrick Peterson
Predictions
Record	5-11
Division	4th

Team	St. Louis Rams
Head Coach	Jeff Fisher
O-Coord.	Brian Schottenheimer
D-Coord.	Tim Walton
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Sam Bradford
Running Back	Daryl Richardson
Wide Receiver	Tavon Austin
Wide Receiver	Chris Givens
H-Back	Lance Kendricks
Tight End	Jared Cook
Left Tackle	Jake Long
Left Guard	Shelley Smith
Center	Scott Wells
Right Guard	Harvey Dahl
Right Tackle	Rodger Saffold
	Defense
Left End	Chris Long
Left Tackle	Kendall Langford
Right Tackle	Michael Brockers
Right End	Robert Quinn
Sam LB	Will Witherspoon
Mike LB	James Laurinaitis
Will LB	Alec Ogletree
Left CB	Cortland Finnegan
Right CB	Janoris Jenkins
Strong Safety	T. J. McDonald
Free Safety	Darian Stewart
	Special Teams
Kicker	Greg Zuerlein
Punter	Johnny Hekker
K-Return	Tavon Austin
P-Return	Tavon Austin
Predictions
Record	8-8
Division	3rd

Team	San Francisco 49ers
Head Coach	Jim Harbaugh
O-Coord.	Greg Roman
D-Coord.	Vic Fangio
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Colin Kaepernick
Running Back	Frank Gore
Fullback	Bruce Miller
Wide Receiver	Anquan Boldin
Wide Receiver	Kyle Williams
Tight End	Vernon Davis
Left Tackle	Joe Staley
Left Guard	Mike Iupati
Center	Jonathan Goodwin
Right Guard	Alex Boone
Right Tackle	Anthony Davis
	Defense
Left End	Ray McDonald
Nose Tackle	Ian Williams
Right End	Justin Smith
Left OLB	Ahmad Brooks
Left ILB	NaVorro Bowman
Right ILB	Patrick Willis
Right OLB	Aldon Smith
Left CB	Carlos Rogers
Right CB	Tarell Brown
Strong Safety	Donte Whitner
Free Safety	C. J. Spillman
	Special Teams
Kicker	Phil Dawson
Punter	Andy Lee
K-Return	LaMichael James
P-Return	LaMichael James
Predictions
Record	12-4
Division	1st

Team	Seattle Seahawks
Head Coach	Pete Carroll
O-Coord.	Darrell Bevell
D-Coord.	Dan Quinn
Projected Starting Lineup
Position	Player
	Offense
Quarterback	Russell Wilson
Running Back	Marshawn Lynch
Fullback	Derrick Coleman
Wide Receiver	Golden Tate
Wide Receiver	Sydney Rice
Tight End	Zach Miller
Left Tackle	Russell Okung
Left Guard	Paul Mcquistan
Center	Max Unger
Right Guard	J. R. Sweezy
Right Tackle	Breno Giacomini
	Defense
Left End	Red Bryant
Left Tackle	Tony McDaniel
Right Tackle	Brandon Mebane
Right End	Chris Clemons
Sam LB	K. J. Wright
Mike LB	Bobby Wagner
Will LB	Malcolm Smith
Left CB	Richard Sherman
Right CB	Brandon Browner
Strong Safety	Kam Chancellor
Free Safety	Earl Thomas
	Special Teams
Kicker	Steven Hauschka
Punter	Jon Ryan
K-Return	Jermaine Kearse
P-Return	Golden Tate
Predictions
Record	11-5
Division	2nd

This concludes the PiRate Ratings Preseason Previews.  Coming Tuesday, we will debut our opening PiRate Ratings for NFL Week One.

 

On Wednesday, we will carry our college ratings for week two, and on Thursday, we will make our PiRate Picks for college and pro for the weekend.

 

Then, beginning the following week, we expect to release college ratings every Tuesday; NFL ratings every Wednesday; and our picks every Thursday.

PiRate Ratings: NFL For Week 3–September 25-26, 2011

Rookie Quarterbacks Need Time To Get Used To The Speed Of The Game

 

We wonder just how good Cam Newton is going to be when he becomes a seasoned veteran.  If while he is breaking in to the speed of the league, he averages more than 400 passing yards per game, will he soon be threatening the 6,000 passing yard mark?

 

The way he has played in his first two games, he sure looks like he could become the first Heisman Trophy winner to earn the Rookie of the Year award in the NFL since Sam Bradford way back in 2010.

 

It’s time to put this myth to rest.  Today’s college quarterbacks are as ready to step in and become stars in their first year in the NFL just as frequently as today’s running backs are ready.  Andy Dalton looks like a veteran, and Blaine Gabbert should become the starter at Jacksonville very soon.

 

He’s Being Paid How Much Per Yard?

 

Titans’ running back Chris Johnson’s new contract averages out to $837,500 per game.  Through two weeks of the 2011 season, he is averaging a grand total of 38.5 rushing yards per game, or a little more than $21,750 per yard.  A simple five yard gain could buy a nice house.  A one yard gain is worth about the same as a Ford Fusion.

 

All kidding aside, the Titans should consider trying him as a wideout.  Johnson has good hands, and lining up opposite Kenny Britt could give the Titans the next version of Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Bolden, or Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.  Add Nate Washington to the mix, and the Titans might have the top receiving trio outside of Foxboro, Massachusetts.

 

The AFC East

 

Could the AFC East provide three playoff teams in 2011-12?  New England and the New York Jets appear to be lead pipe cinches to make the playoffs, but what about the Buffalo Bills?  The Bills are off to a 2-0 start and a fourth place schedule to their advantage.  We tend to believe that the runner-up in the AFC North will probably finish no worse than 10-6, so it is still a long shot.  As of today, we cannot see any AFC South or West runner-up winning more than nine games.

 

The NFC West

 

Last year, Seattle won the NFC West with a 7-9 record.  The Seahawks will be lucky to win four games this year, but they could still be in the race with four games to go.  This division may provide another losing team to the playoffs this season.  Arizona and San Francisco have played mediocre ball so far to open at 1-1, but neither team is a world-beater.  This division plays the NFC East and AFC North, and the outlook is grim for the Cardinals, Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks.  Could 6-10 actually earn a team a share of this division title?  Ugh!

 

Offense Continues To Dominate

 

Through two weeks of the NFL schedule, the average offensive score for the 32 teams is 23.5.  That is a field goal above the norm.

 

The average margin of victory is a gaudy 12.9 points per game, which is well above the average.  This could be due to a small statistical sample, but it could also be an effect of the NFL Lockout.  The teams with better talent and exceptional organizational skills are taking advantage of the lack of preseason preparation.

 

NFL PiRate Ratings For Week 3: September 25-26, 2011

 

NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Philadelphia Eagles	1	–	1	–	0	62	48	106.2	104.8	106.5
New York Giants	1	–	1	–	0	42	44	103.4	100.8	102.5
Dallas Cowboys	1	–	1	–	0	51	51	101.9	102.4	102.0
Washington Redskins	2	–	0	–	0	50	35	96.5	98.5	101.4
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay Packers	2	–	0	–	0	72	57	107.2	107.2	108.3
Detroit Lions	2	–	0	–	0	75	23	105.2	102.7	104.3
Chicago Bears	1	–	1	–	0	43	42	102.0	101.9	102.5
Minnesota Vikings	0	–	2	–	0	37	48	97.2	99.2	96.3
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans Saints	1	–	1	–	0	64	55	108.8	105.0	105.8
Atlanta Falcons	1	–	1	–	0	47	61	104.1	101.4	103.9
Tampa Bay Bucaneers	1	–	1	–	0	44	47	98.4	99.7	99.6
Carolina Panthers	0	–	2	–	0	44	58	91.6	94.4	94.1
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco 49ers	1	–	1	–	0	57	44	96.2	97.6	97.6
St. Louis Rams	0	–	2	–	0	29	59	95.2	93.2	93.5
Arizona Cardinals	1	–	1	–	0	49	43	94.9	95.2	96.2
Seattle Seahawks	0	–	2	–	0	17	57	90.7	92.2	88.9
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England Patriots	2	–	0	–	0	73	45	111.5	109.9	110.1
New York Jets	2	–	0	–	0	59	27	107.7	106.9	107.4
Miami Dolphins	0	–	2	–	0	37	61	98.2	97.9	95.8
Buffalo Bills	2	–	0	–	0	79	42	96.2	98.6	101.2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Pittsburgh Steelers	1	–	1	–	0	31	35	107.4	104.7	104.6
Baltimore Ravens	1	–	1	–	0	48	33	103.8	105.9	105.7
Cleveland Browns	1	–	1	–	0	44	46	95.9	96.3	95.5
Cincinnati Bengals	1	–	1	–	0	49	41	95.1	97.6	96.8
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Houston Texans	2	–	0	–	0	57	20	105.8	103.7	105.9
Tennessee Titans	1	–	1	–	0	40	29	99.8	101.2	98.8
Indianapolis Colts	0	–	2	–	0	26	61	96.5	97.2	93.3
Jacksonville Jaguars	1	–	1	–	0	19	46	95.2	95.7	96.0
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego Chargers	1	–	1	–	0	45	52	105.3	103.7	103.1
Oakland Raiders	1	–	1	–	0	58	58	96.3	98.4	99.6
Denver Broncos	1	–	1	–	0	44	45	93.4	94.9	95.1
Kansas City Chiefs	0	–	2	–	0	10	89	93.0	91.4	87.5

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 3: September 25-26, 2011
Vegas Line as of: Tuesday, September 20, 2011  9:30 AM EDT
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
CINCINNATI	San Francisco	0.9	2.0	1.2	2 1/2	41
New England	BUFFALO	14.3	10.3	7.9	8 1/2	52
NEW ORLEANS	Houston	4.5	2.8	1.4	4	53
PHILADELPHIA	New York Giants	3.8	5.0	5.0	7 1/2	41 1/2
Miami	CLEVELAND	1.3	0.6	-0.7	-3	41
TENNESSEE	Denver	9.9	9.8	7.2	7	42
Detroit	MINNESOTA	8.0	3.5	8.0	3 1/2	44 1/2
Jacksonville	CAROLINA	2.1	-0.2	-0.4	-3	42 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Kansas City	15.8	15.8	19.1	14 1/2	45
New York Jets	OAKLAND	10.4	7.5	6.8	3	41
Baltimore	ST. LOUIS	7.1	11.2	10.7	4 1/2	42
Atlanta	TAMPA BAY	4.7	0.7	3.3	-1 1/2	45 1/2
Arizona	SEATTLE	0.7	-0.5	3.8	-3	42
Green Bay	CHICAGO	3.2	3.3	3.8	3 1/2	45 1/2
Pittsburgh	INDIANAPOLIS	9.4	6.0	9.8	10 1/2	39 1/2
DALLAS	Washington	5.9	4.4	1.1	6 1/2	45

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 16–December 23-27, 2010

Merry Christmas to all of our PiRate readers.  We wanted to send all of you a gift this year, but we didn’t have enough boxes here on the PiRate Ship. So, instead, we are going to issue a communal gift today. 2010 has been a very successful season for our picks, and our subscribers have pocketed a lot of PiRate booty thanks to a 69% record against the spread. We realize that several readers to this blog are not subscribers and thus can only see our picks from the previous week after the fact. For instance, we made just one selection last week.  It was a 3-game, 10-point teaser parlay, and it won.  We issued to our subscribers last week a bowl pick.  We took the three favorites (BYU, Northern Illinois, and Troy) and moved the spread by 10 points in our favor, making BYU a 2-point favorite, NIU a 9-point ‘dog, and Troy a 7-point ‘dog.  All three won outright and covered, making this a winning selection. We are only playing one 13-point teaser this week as our official pick, but we had two good picks to select from.  We always make an odd number of selections, because if we play an even amount and win half, it is a losing proposition. We are issuing our top choice to our subscribers, and they will receive this pick Thursday afternoon.  Today, we would like to issue our second choice pick to all of you as our gift.  We hope it is a winning one.  Additionally, we will show you a little behind our strategy. Here it is: We are going with a 4-game, 13-point teaser.  For those not familiar with this type of selection, you get to move the pointspreads 13 points in either direction, but you must win four different games.  If all four games win, you win the parlay.  If anything else happens, including three wins and a push, you lose. There are two key statistics to look at when playing a 13-point teaser.  Number one, you need to let the numbers play in your favor by picking a game that might give you an extra point or two.  Let’s say a team is a ½-point underdog.  If you like the underdog to cover, then you get them at 13 ½ points.  That is not in your favor.  Winning teams often win games by 14 points.   Now, let’s take another team that is a 4 ½-point underdog.  Adding 13 points in their favor makes them a 17 ½-point underdog.  Many games are decided by 17 points, while many fewer are decided by 18. Another key point is to take a favorite that you feel has a great chance to win and move the spread to make them an underdog.  A 5 ½-point favorite becomes a 7 ½-point underdog. Another great way to play teasers is to look at totals.  If the total for a game is 36 points, moving it 13 points lower and playing the OVER means you win if the final score is 14-10. The other key statistic is to look for games where your own personal beliefs indicate you are getting extra points in the selection.  Let’s say that you believe one team is six points better than their opponent, and they are a 4 ½-point favorite.  Giving the 4 ½ points in a straight selection is much too close to your six points difference.  One simple botched field goal or one long field goal made by the weaker team would kill your selection.  However, if you move the spread by 13 points in your favor, this part of the parlay now makes your favorite an 8 ½-point underdog.  The team you think can win by six can now lose by more than a touchdown and still win this part of the parlay. If you think two teams can play 10 times, and all 10 games will be within a narrow point range, you can even play both sides of a game.  For instance if Team A is favored by two points over Team B, and you believe that no matter which team wins, it will be by less than 10 points, you can take Team A at +11 and Team B at +15. Here is our Christmas gift to you. 1. 13-point teaser parlay Pittsburgh – ½ vs. Carolina Jacksonville +6 vs. Washington Baltimore +9 ½ vs. Cleveland Oakland +13 vs. Indianapolis   Here is our reasoning for these four games.  Pittsburgh is in a must-win situation at home, and the Steelers will be mad after losing to the Jets Sunday.  Carolina won at home on Sunday and must turn around and play on Thursday night in possible snowy conditions with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  This is a perfect setup for the Steelers.  Carolina has nothing to play for in this game.  This is basically a pick when you lower the spread to a half point, as you win even if the Steelers win by one. Jacksonville has everything to play for, while the Redskins have nothing.  Washington’s big game was last Sunday against their rival.  They will not have much left in the tank this week.  Coach Mike Shanahan has lost the respect of a handful of players, and they are not going to go all out.  The Jags lost a tough game to Indianapolis, and they must now win out to have a legitimate shot at the AFC South title.  You get six points as a bonus, but we see the Jags winning this one outright. Baltimore is back in the race for the NFC North title.  The Steelers still hold the tiebreaker edge, but Pittsburgh has to play at Cleveland in week 17.  The Browns will be up for their rival, which means they may not be so up this week, especially after they just lost to their other big rival last week.  We believe Baltimore should win this outright, and we get 9 ½ points by taking the Ravens in this part of the parlay.  We have a slight problem with 9 ½, but we do not think Cleveland can win this by a touchdown if they play 10 times. We love the Raiders in this West Coast game.  Indianapolis will not have the services of Austin Collie, and the Raiders will hold Peyton Manning to two TD passes.  Indy will have a hard time stopping the Raiders’ offense, and we see a high-scoring game.  Remember, Oakland is still in the AFC West race, and they finish with the Chiefs in Kansas City.  They already hold the tiebreaker over San Diego, and a win in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs.  They have to win in week 16 for week 17 to matter, and then they have to hope the Chargers lose once.  We believe Oakland will win this game, but even if they lose, it should not be by more than three to seven points. Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings                       NFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Philadelphia 10 – 4 – 0 412 339 108.2 105.9 106.6 NY Giants 9 – 5 – 0 360 288 105.9 104.3 103.5 Dallas 5 – 9 – 0 354 396 98.7 99.2 99.8 Washington 5 – 9 – 0 268 343 93.9 96.9 95.4 Bitmap                     NFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Green Bay 8 – 6 – 0 333 220 108.9 107.2 105.2 Chicago 10 – 4 – 0 293 242 103.8 104.4 104.9 Detroit 4 – 10 – 0 308 329 97.3 99.7 97.8 Minnesota 5 – 9 – 0 244 314 95.1 95.9 94.2                       NFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Atlanta 12 – 2 – 0 369 261 107.7 106.1 107.2 New Orleans 10 – 4 – 0 354 270 105.9 103.8 105.2 Tampa Bay 8 – 6 – 0 280 290 98.6 98.9 100.3 Carolina 2 – 12 – 0 183 350 90.5 88.7 90.1                       NFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Francisco 5 – 9 – 0 250 314 96.6 95.3 98.0 St. Louis 6 – 8 – 0 258 295 95.2 94.9 96.4 Seattle 6 – 8 – 0 279 363 93.4 93.1 95.1 Arizona 4 – 10 – 0 255 370 88.2 90.6 88.2                       AFC East Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased New England 12 – 2 – 0 446 303 112.8 110.6 110.9 NY Jets 10 – 4 – 0 295 259 102.8 103.3 103.8 Miami 7 – 7 – 0 239 261 100.2 100.0 99.7 Buffalo 4 – 10 – 0 273 353 98.3 98.0 97.7                       AFC North Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Baltimore 10 – 4 – 0 324 253 106.7 105.4 106.2 Pittsburgh 10 – 4 – 0 307 220 105.2 105.4 106.5 Cleveland 5 – 9 – 0 252 271 99.6 98.3 95.0 Cincinnati 3 – 11 – 0 281 362 95.3 95.9 94.3                       AFC South Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased Indianapolis 8 – 6 – 0 381 342 101.2 102.2 101.5 Jacksonville 8 – 6 – 0 319 365 99.1 99.0 101.0 Houston 5 – 9 – 0 333 386 98.7 98.0 97.2 Tennessee 6 – 8 – 0 322 282 95.4 100.3 98.2                       AFC West Won   Lost   Tied Pts Opp PiRate Mean Biased San Diego 8 – 6 – 0 388 260 106.9 106.3 105.9 Oakland 7 – 7 – 0 353 330 99.9 99.7 101.3 Kansas City 9 – 5 – 0 322 281 99.4 100.7 99.6 Denver 3 – 11 – 0 292 415 91.0 91.8 93.2 PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PITTSBURGH	Carolina	18.7	20.7	20.4	13.5	37
Dallas	ARIZONA	7.5	5.6	8.6	6.5	45
MIAMI	Detroit	4.9	2.3	3.9	3.5	41.5
PHILADELPHIA	Minnesota	16.1	13	15.4	NL	NL
JACKSONVILLE	Washington	8.2	5.1	8.6	7	45.5
ST. LOUIS	San Francisco	1.6	2.6	1.4	2.5	39.5
TAMPA BAY	Seattle	7.2	7.8	7.2	6	44
New England	BUFFALO	12.5	10.6	13.2	7.5	44
CHICAGO	New York Jets	4	4.1	4.1	2.5	36
Baltimore	CLEVELAND	4.1	4.1	8.2	3.5	38.5
KANSAS CITY	Tennessee	8	4.4	5.4	5	42
OAKLAND	Indianapolis	1.7	0.5	2.8	-3	47
Houston	DENVER	4.7	3.2	1	3	48.5
GREEN BAY	New York Giants	6	5.9	4.7	NL	NL
San Diego	CINCINNATI	8.6	7.4	8.6	7.5	44
ATLANTA	New Orleans	5.8	6.3	6	2.5	48.5

 

PiRate Playoff Projection

N F C

1. Atlanta 13-3

2. Philadelphia 12-4

3. Chicago 11-5

4. San Francisco 7-9

5. New Orleans 12-4

6. Green Bay 10-6

 

A F C

1. New England 14-2

2. Baltimore 12-4

3. San Diego 10-6

4. Jacksonville 10-6

5. New York Jets 11-5

6. Pittsburgh 11-5

 

Wildcard Playoff Round

Chicago over Green Bay

New Orleans over San Francisco

 

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New York Jets over Jacksonville

 

Divisional Playoff Round

Philadelphia over Chicago

Atlanta over New Orleans

 

New England over Pittsburgh

Baltimore over New York Jets

 

Conference Championships

Philadelphia over Atlanta

 

New England over Baltimore

 

Super Bowl

New England over Philadelphia

PiRate QB Passer Rating 



Player	Team	G	AYPA	Int %	PiRate
Tom Brady	NE	14	6.8	0.89	114.2
Michael Vick	PHI	11	6.6	1.52	107.6
Matt Cassel	KC	13	5.8	1.31	105.0
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	10	6	1.49	104.5
Josh Freeman	TB	14	5.7	1.42	103.4
Phillip Rivers	SD	14	7	2.37	102.3
Vince Young	TEN	9	6.2	1.92	101.8
Joe Flacco	BAL	14	5.7	1.77	100.3
Kyle Orton	DEN	13	5.6	1.81	99.5
Colt McCoy	CLE	6	5.7	1.97	98.6
Matt Ryan	ATL	14	5.2	1.76	97.6
Matt Schaub	HOU	14	5.6	2.12	96.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	13	6.1	2.44	96.7
Peyton Manning	IND	14	5.6	2.46	93.7
Kevin Kolb	PHI	6	4.9	2.61	88.4
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	14	4.6	2.55	87.3
Tony Romo	DAL	6	5.7	3.29	87.0
Jason Campbell	OAK	11	5.1	3.05	85.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	12	4.9	2.97	85.3
Jon Kitna	DAL	9	5.4	3.36	84.7
Drew Brees	NO	14	5.2	3.33	83.8
Sam Bradford	STL	14	4.1	2.71	83.1
Kerry Collins	TEN	8	4.5	2.97	83.1
Donovan McNabb	WAS	13	4.8	3.18	82.9
Shaun Hill	DET	9	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jay Cutler	CHI	13	4.9	3.53	80.4
Derek Anderson	ARI	12	4.1	3.06	80.0
Chad Henne	MIA	13	4.7	3.48	79.7
Alex Smith	SF	9	4.4	3.36	79.1
Carson Palmer	CIN	14	4.4	3.46	78.2
Jimmie Clausen	CAR	11	3.1	2.88	76.0
Eli Manning	NYG	14	5	4.19	75.1
David Garrard	JAX	13	4.6	3.96	74.9
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	13	4.3	3.86	74.1
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	6	4	4.43	67.4
Jake Delhomme	CLE	5	3.3	4.70	61.1
Brett Favre	MIN	13	4	5.31	59.7
Matt Moore	CAR	6	2	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%)) + 105) *0.8
						AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt or Yards Per Attempt – Yards After Catch
						AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 15–December 16-20, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
NY Giants	9	–	4	–	0	329	250	107.1	105.4	105.6
Philadelphia	9	–	4	–	0	374	308	107.0	105.4	105.6
Dallas	4	–	9	–	0	321	366	99.0	99.8	99.9
Washington	5	–	8	–	0	238	310	93.6	95.8	92.6
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	8	–	5	–	0	306	189	108.6	106.7	105.0
Chicago	9	–	4	–	0	253	228	101.6	101.7	103.2
Minnesota	5	–	8	–	0	230	274	97.3	98.4	97.5
Detroit	3	–	10	–	0	285	309	96.5	98.1	94.8
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Atlanta	11	–	2	–	0	335	243	106.9	106.1	107.5
New Orleans	10	–	3	–	0	330	240	106.3	105.0	106.6
Tampa Bay	8	–	5	–	0	260	267	99.4	99.9	101.2
Carolina	1	–	12	–	0	164	338	90.3	88.9	89.4
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Francisco	5	–	8	–	0	243	280	98.2	97.1	99.8
St. Louis	6	–	7	–	0	245	268	96.5	95.7	98.0
Seattle	6	–	7	–	0	261	329	94.2	93.7	96.5
Arizona	4	–	9	–	0	243	351	88.4	91.3	92.5
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	11	–	2	–	0	415	276	113.1	111.8	111.1
NY Jets	9	–	4	–	0	273	242	101.6	101.1	102.5
Miami	7	–	6	–	0	225	244	101.2	101.4	101.9
Buffalo	3	–	10	–	0	256	339	97.3	97.1	96.0
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Pittsburgh	10	–	3	–	0	290	198	106.4	106.2	107.4
Baltimore	9	–	4	–	0	294	229	106.3	104.8	105.4
Cleveland	5	–	8	–	0	235	252	99.9	99.1	96.9
Cincinnati	2	–	11	–	0	262	345	95.0	95.1	93.9
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	7	–	6	–	0	347	318	100.7	101.3	101.7
Houston	5	–	8	–	0	316	355	100.2	100.0	99.0
Jacksonville	8	–	5	–	0	295	331	99.6	99.8	101.8
Tennessee	5	–	8	–	0	291	265	93.9	97.8	93.7
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	7	–	6	–	0	354	253	105.3	105.9	104.2
Oakland	6	–	7	–	0	314	307	99.2	99.1	99.8
Kansas City	8	–	5	–	0	295	268	98.1	98.6	99.5
Denver	3	–	10	–	0	269	376	91.7	92.3	89.7

 

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 15: December 16-20, 2010
Vegas Line as of 3:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog				PiRate		Mean		Bias	Vegas		Totals
SAN DIEGO	San Francisco				11.1		12.8		8.4	8 1/2		44 1/2
ST. LOUIS	Kansas City				1.4		0.1		2.5	NL		NL
Houston	TENNESSEE				3.3		-0.8		2.3	-1 1/2		47
INDIANAPOLIS	Jacksonville				4.1		4.5		2.9	5		48 1/2
CAROLINA	Arizona				4.9		0.6		-0.1	2 1/2		37 1/2
Cleveland	CINCINNATI				1.9		1.0		3.0	-2		40
MIAMI	Buffalo				5.9		6.3		7.9	5 1/2		41
NEW YORK GIANTS	Philadelphia				3.1		3.0		3.0	2 1/2		46
DALLAS	Washington				8.4		7.0		10.3	6		45
TAMPA BAY	Detroit				4.9		3.8		8.4	6		43
BALTIMORE	New Orleans				3.0		2.8		1.8	2		43 1/2
Atlanta	SEATTLE				8.7		8.4		7.0	6		45
PITTSBURGH	New York Jets				8.8		9.1		8.9	6		35 1/2
OAKLAND	Denver				10.5		9.8		13.1	6 1/2		44
NEW ENGLAND	Green Bay				7.5		8.1		9.1	NL		NL
Chicago	MINNESOTA				1.3		0.3		2.7	NL		NL
PiRate Passer #  Player		Team	G	AYPA		Int%		PiRate #
Tom Brady		NE	13	6.9		0.94		114.4
Michael Vick		PHI	10	6.8		1.36		110.1
Matt Cassel		KC	12	5.9		1.13		107.1
Ben Roethlisberger		PIT	9	6.2		1.72		103.6
Josh Freeman		TB	13	5.6		1.54		101.8
Vince Young		TEN	9	6.2		1.92		101.8
Phillip Rivers		SD	13	6.8		2.51		100.0
Joe Flacco		BAL	13	5.7		1.86		99.6
Kyle Orton		DEN	13	5.6		1.81		99.5
Matt Ryan		ATL	13	5.3		1.68		98.9
Matt Schaub		HOU	13	5.8		2.15		97.6
Aaron Rodgers		GB	13	6.1		2.44		96.7
Troy Smith		SF	5	5.6		2.38		94.4
Colt McCoy		CLE	5	5.4		2.36		93.5
Peyton Manning		IND	13	5.6		2.63		92.2
Jason Campbell		OAK	10	5		2.54		89.6
Kevin Kolb		PHI	6	4.9		2.61		88.4
Tony Romo		DAL	6	5.7		3.29		87.0
Mark Sanchez		NYJ	13	4.6		2.72		85.8
Sam Bradford		STL	13	4.3		2.53		85.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick		BUF	11	4.8		2.91		85.3
Drew Brees		NO	13	5.3		3.43		83.5
Kerry Collins		TEN	7	4.3		2.81		83.4
Donovan McNabb		WAS	13	4.8		3.18		82.9
Shaun Hill		DET	9	4.4		3.13		81.1
Jay Cutler		CHI	12	4.9		3.49		80.7
Alex Smith		SF	8	4.6		3.35		80.3
Derek Anderson		ARI	12	4.1		3.06		80.0
Jon Kitna		DAL	8	5.1		3.83		78.8
Matt Hasselbeck		SEA	12	4.6		3.55		78.6
Chad Henne		MIA	12	4.7		3.63		78.4
Carson Palmer		CIN	13	4.2		3.62		75.6
Eli Manning		NYG	13	4.9		4.34		73.3
David Garrard		JAX	12	4.4		4.14		72.2
Jimmie Clausen		CAR	10	2.8		3.13		72.2
Bruce Gradkowski		OAK	6	4		4.43		67.4
Brett Favre		MIN	12	4.1		5.13		61.8
Jake Delhomme		CLE	5	3.3		4.70		61.1
Matt Moore		CAR	6	2		6.99		33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA = Air Yards Per Pass Attempt (yards per attempt minus yards after catch)

AYPA can be found at advancednflstats.com

 

NFL Playoff Projections

 

N F C

1. New Orleans

2. Philadelphia

3. Chicago

4. Seattle

5. Atlanta

6. New York Giants

 

A F C

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Jacksonville

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. New York Jets

 

Wildcard Round

Chicago over New York Giants

Atlanta over Seattle

 

Jacksonville over New York Jets

San Diego over Baltimore

 

Divisional Round

New Orleans over Atlanta

Philadelphia over Chicago

 

New England over San Diego

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville

 

Conference Championships

New Orleans over Philadelphia

 

New England over Pittsburgh

 

Super Bowl

New Orleans over New England

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 13–December 2-6, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	7	–	4	–	0	310	257	106.6	105.7	105.8	2
NY Giants	7	–	4	–	0	277	240	103.3	102.5	103.3	2
Dallas	3	–	8	–	0	256	301	96.8	98.9	99.5	2
Washington	5	–	6	–	0	215	262	96.3	97.1	96.1	3
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Green Bay	7	–	4	–	0	269	166	109.9	109.9	106.8	3
Chicago	8	–	3	–	0	222	172	103.3	103.4	104.7	4
Minnesota	4	–	7	–	0	189	239	97.1	99.0	99.6	3
Detroit	2	–	9	–	0	258	282	95.0	96.7	93.9	4
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Atlanta	9	–	2	–	0	276	209	106.3	105.3	106.9	4
New Orleans	8	–	3	–	0	265	197	105.8	104.5	106.6	2
Tampa Bay	7	–	4	–	0	219	223	99.1	99.0	100.6	2
Carolina	1	–	10	–	0	140	276	92.7	90.0	90.3	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Francisco	4	–	7	–	0	187	225	97.2	95.4	98.3	4
St. Louis	5	–	6	–	0	213	231	95.2	94.5	97.1	4
Seattle	5	–	6	–	0	209	275	93.9	92.5	95.3	3
Arizona	3	–	8	–	0	194	319	88.0	88.3	89.7	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New England	9	–	2	–	0	334	266	107.8	107.0	107.5	3
NY Jets	9	–	2	–	0	264	187	106.3	105.5	106.3	2
Miami	6	–	5	–	0	205	225	102.3	101.3	102.3	3
Buffalo	2	–	9	–	0	229	295	97.7	97.1	97.0	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Baltimore	8	–	3	–	0	250	188	107.4	105.9	106.1	4
Pittsburgh	8	–	3	–	0	254	181	105.0	105.7	104.9	2
Cleveland	4	–	7	–	0	216	229	98.6	99.5	98.2	4
Cincinnati	2	–	9	–	0	225	288	95.0	95.5	91.3	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Indianapolis	6	–	5	–	0	282	252	102.9	102.9	102.2	4
Houston	5	–	6	–	0	264	287	100.6	100.3	99.4	2
Tennessee	5	–	6	–	0	257	218	96.7	102.1	96.5	4
Jacksonville	6	–	5	–	0	240	294	96.6	96.5	98.4	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Diego	6	–	5	–	0	310	225	106.9	106.2	104.2	4
Kansas City	7	–	4	–	0	285	231	100.2	100.2	101.1	4
Oakland	5	–	6	–	0	255	256	96.3	96.4	97.7	2
Denver	3	–	8	–	0	250	323	93.6	95.2	92.2	2

 

PiRate, Mean, and Bias Spreads
Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 13: December 2-6, 2010
Vegas Line as of 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
PHILADELPHIA	Houston	8.0	7.4	8.4	8 1/2	51 1/2
MINNESOTA	Buffalo	2.4	4.9	5.6	6	44 1/2
MIAMI	Cleveland	6.7	4.8	7.1	4 1/2	42 1/2
TENNESSEE	Jacksonville	4.1	9.6	2.1	NL	NL
KANSAS CITY	Denver	10.6	9.0	12.9	8 1/2	45 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS	Washington	9.0	7.4	9.2	7	43
Chicago	DETROIT	4.3	2.7	6.8	3 1/2	44 1/2
GREEN BAY	San Francisco	15.7	17.5	11.5	9 1/2	42
New Orleans	CINCINNATI	7.8	6.0	12.3	6 1/2	46 1/2
Atlanta	TAMPA BAY	5.2	4.3	4.3	3	44 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Oakland	14.6	13.8	10.5	12 1/2	45 1/2
SEATTLE	Carolina	4.2	5.5	8.0	6	39 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	Dallas	10.1	8.0	6.7	5 1/2	47 1/2
St. Louis	ARIZONA	3.2	2.2	3.4	3	43
BALTIMORE	Pittsburgh	6.4	4.2	5.2	3	40
NEW ENGLAND	New York Jets	4.5	4.5	4.2	3 1/2	46

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int %	#
Michael Vick	Phi	6.8	0.43	118.3
Tom Brady	NE	6.5	1.12	110.5
Kyle Orton	Den	6.3	1.40	107.0
Matt Cassel	KC	6.0	1.24	106.7
Matt Ryan	Atl	5.6	1.23	104.5
Ben Roethlisberger	Pit	6.4	1.82	103.8
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.39	102.1
Josh Freeman	TB	5.6	1.53	101.9
Vince Young	Ten	6.2	1.92	101.8
Matt Shaub	Hou	5.8	1.91	99.7
Aaron Rodgers	GB	6.2	2.44	97.3
Seneca Wallace	Cle	5.4	2.00	96.6
Joe Flacco	Bal	5.7	2.19	96.6
Peyton Manning	Ind	5.6	2.26	95.5
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.2	2.20	93.8
Colt McCoy	Cle	5.4	2.36	93.5
Sam Bradford	Stl	4.5	2.18	90.0
Matt Hasselebeck	Sea	4.9	2.56	88.9
Kevin Kolb	Phi	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	Dal	5.7	3.29	87.0
Drew Brees	NO	5.4	3.29	85.3
Chad Henne	Mia	5.3	3.27	84.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	Buf	4.8	3.03	84.2
Kerry Collins	Ten	4.2	2.80	82.8
Jay Cutler	Chi	5.0	3.42	81.9
Donovan McNabb	Was	4.8	3.31	81.8
Derek Anderson	Ari	4.2	2.93	81.7
Shaun Hill	Det	4.4	3.13	81.1
Jason Campbell	Oak	4.2	3.16	79.7
Jon Kitna	Dal	5.2	4.00	77.9
Carson Palmer	Cin	4.3	3.47	77.5
Eli Manning	NYG	5.2	4.26	75.7
Jimmy Clausen	Car	3.1	3.01	74.9
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
David Garrard	Jax	4.3	4.42	69.2
Bruce Gradkowski	Oak	4.0	4.43	67.4
Brett Favre	Min	4.2	4.86	64.8
Matt Moore	Car	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8

AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  This statistic removed the receivers’ Yards After Catch.

AYPA can be found at www.advancednflstats.com

Projected NFL Playoff Seedings

NFC

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. Chicago Bears

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. St. Louis Rams

5. Green Bay Packers

6. New Orleans Saints

AFC

1. New England Patriots

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. San Diego Chargers

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore Ravens

Wildcard Round

New Orleans over Philadelphia

Green Bay over St. Louis

Baltimore over San Diego

New York Jets over Indianapolis

Divisional Round

Atlanta over New Orleans

Chicago over Green Bay

Baltimore over New England

Pittsburgh over New York Jets

Conference Championships

Chicago over Atlanta

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

SUPER BOWL

Chicago over Baltimore

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 12–November 25-29, 2010

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed by PiRate #)
NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	7	–	3	–	0	284	226	106.9	106.2	106.0	2
NY Giants	6	–	4	–	0	253	220	104.1	102.5	103.5	2
Washington	5	–	5	–	0	202	245	97.3	98.8	99.0	3
Dallas	3	–	7	–	0	229	271	96.3	98.8	99.4	2
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Green Bay	7	–	3	–	0	252	146	110.4	108.5	107.7	3
Chicago	7	–	3	–	0	191	146	103.0	102.8	102.7	4
Detroit	2	–	8	–	0	234	237	96.7	97.1	95.5	4
Minnesota	3	–	7	–	0	172	226	96.1	97.3	94.8	3
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New Orleans	7	–	3	–	0	235	170	106.3	103.8	105.4	2
Atlanta	8	–	2	–	0	256	192	105.8	105.0	106.7	4
Tampa Bay	7	–	3	–	0	209	206	98.3	99.6	101.1	2
Carolina	1	–	9	–	0	117	252	91.5	89.0	90.4	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Seattle	5	–	5	–	0	185	233	95.4	94.9	96.0	3
St. Louis	4	–	6	–	0	177	198	94.5	94.6	95.8	4
San Francisco	3	–	7	–	0	160	219	94.2	93.9	95.6	4
Arizona	3	–	7	–	0	188	292	91.0	91.3	91.4	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
New England	8	–	2	–	0	289	242	106.1	105.6	106.9	3
NY Jets	8	–	2	–	0	238	177	106.0	105.0	106.1	2
Miami	5	–	5	–	0	172	208	100.7	100.5	100.0	3
Buffalo	2	–	8	–	0	213	276	97.2	97.0	96.2	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Baltimore	7	–	3	–	0	233	178	108.2	105.1	106.0	4
Pittsburgh	7	–	3	–	0	235	165	105.5	106.2	105.7	2
Cleveland	3	–	7	–	0	192	206	99.8	99.9	97.3	4
Cincinnati	2	–	8	–	0	215	262	95.3	95.8	93.2	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
Indianapolis	6	–	4	–	0	268	216	105.6	104.5	104.8	4
Tennessee	5	–	5	–	0	257	198	98.9	103.4	100.2	4
Houston	4	–	6	–	0	244	287	98.4	98.4	97.9	2
Jacksonville	6	–	4	–	0	220	270	95.8	97.6	100.8	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased
San Diego	5	–	5	–	0	274	211	104.2	103.5	103.7	4
Kansas City	6	–	4	–	0	243	207	98.7	99.8	100.6	4
Oakland	5	–	5	–	0	238	223	97.9	98.1	98.9	2
Denver	3	–	7	–	0	217	287	94.3	95.4	91.1	2

Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 12: November 25-29, 2010
Vegas Line as of 11:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
New England	DETROIT	5.4	4.5	7.4	6 1/2	51
New Orleans	DALLAS	8.0	3.0	4.0	3 1/2	50
NEW YORK JETS	Cincinnati	12.7	11.2	14.9	9	43
WASHINGTON	Minnesota	4.2	4.5	7.2	1 1/2	43
Pittsburgh	BUFFALO	6.3	7.2	7.5	6 1/2	43
HOUSTON	Tennessee	1.5	-3.0	-0.3	NL	NL
NEW YORK GIANTS	Jacksonville	10.3	6.9	4.7	7	44 1/2
CLEVELAND	Carolina	12.3	14.9	10.9	11	37 1/2
BALTIMORE	Tampa Bay	13.9	9.5	8.9	7 1/2	41
CHICAGO	Philadelphia	0.1	0.6	0.7	-3	42 1/2
Green Bay	ATLANTA	0.6	-0.5	-3.0	-2	47 1/2
Miami	OAKLAND	0.8	0.4	-0.9	NL	NL
Kansas City	SEATTLE	0.3	1.9	1.6	1 1/2	44 1/2
DENVER	Bitmap St. Louis	1.8	2.8	-2.7	4	44 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS	San Diego	5.4	5.0	5.1	3	52
ARIZONA	San Francisco	0.8	1.4	-0.2	Pk	40

 

Projected NFL Playoffs

NFC

1. Atlanta

2. Green Bay

3. Philadelphia

4. Seattle

5. New Orleans

6. Chicago

AFC

1. Baltimore

2. New York Jets

3. Indianapolis

4. San Diego

5. New England

6. Pittsburgh

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	7.2	0.00	124.3
Tom Brady	NE	6.1	1.22	107.5
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.2	1.55	105.1
Matt Cassel	KC	5.9	1.37	104.9
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.6	1.33	103.7
Peyton Manning	IND	5.9	1.59	103.0
Vince Young	TEN	6.2	1.92	101.8
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	6.5	2.14	101.6
Phillip Rivers	SD	7.0	2.55	100.8
Josh Freeman	TB	5.7	1.72	100.7
Matt Schaub	HOU	6.0	2.11	99.0
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.7	2.12	97.3
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.3	2.08	95.3
Colt McCoy	CLE	5.4	2.36	93.5
Aaron Rodgers	GB	5.8	2.69	92.8
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	4.9	2.23	91.8
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Sam Bradford	STL	4.1	2.39	85.9
Drew Brees	NO	5.2	3.36	83.6
Chad Henne	MIA	5.0	3.27	83.2
Shaun Hill	DET	4.5	2.95	83.2
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.8	3.16	83.1
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.2	2.80	82.8
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.9	3.35	81.9
Derek Anderson	ARI	4.2	2.94	81.6
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.7	3.30	81.3
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.2	3.16	79.7
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.7	3.69	77.8
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.8	2.90	74.2
Jon Kitna	DAL	5.0	4.43	73.0
Eli Manning	NYG	4.9	4.55	71.4
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	3.8	3.97	70.4
David Garrard	JAX	4.7	4.67	69.2
Brett Favre	MIN	4.0	5.20	60.7
Matt Moore	CAR	2.0	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
					AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com

PiRate Ratings For NFL Football: Week 11–November 18-22, 2010

Hottest Team In The League?

Quick question.  Three NFL teams have not lost a game since week six.  One of those three has outscored its opponents by 26 points per game in that time.  One has given up just one touchdown in their last two games.  The other has averaged over 30 points per game in their three-game winning streak.  Can you name these three teams?

It is no surprise that Green Bay has fared strongly in their current three-game winning streak.  The Packers were supposed to win their division and were supposed to be a top contender for the NFC representative in the Super Bowl  thanks to a powerful offense.  But, the Packers have done it with defense as of late, holding the Jets scoreless and giving up just seven to Dallas.

Atlanta has been a contender in the NFC South ever since Matt Ryan arrived.  The Falcons have scored 92 points in their three-game winning streak.

Ah, but who is this most dominating team of the trio–the one outscoring opponents by 38-12?  It’s the Oakland Raiders who all of a sudden find themselved in first place in the AFC West.  The Raiders visit Pittsburgh, and if they can beat the Steelers, they are officially back.

The Great Switch

Four games into this season, it appeared that offense was on the decline and half the league might give up less than 17 points per game.  As of late, offense has ruled.  Now half of the league could top 350 points.  This is just another part of this fascinating season in which no team appears to be dominant.  Look for 20 teams to challenge for the 12 playoff spots.  It would not surprise us to see three or more spots up for grabs in week 17.

Current NFL Standings, PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings
(listed alphabetically by division)
Bitmap NFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Philadelphia	6	–	3	–	0	257	209	106.2	104.8	105.0	2
NY Giants	6	–	3	–	0	236	193	104.8	102.8	104.3	2
Washington	4	–	5	–	0	183	229	95.6	97.2	93.5	3
Dallas	2	–	7	–	0	194	252	93.6	97.5	98.0	2
NFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Green Bay	6	–	3	–	0	221	143	108.1	106.5	104.5	3
Chicago	6	–	3	–	0	175	146	99.4	99.6	100.8	4
Detroit	2	–	7	–	0	215	202	98.9	99.4	97.0	4
Minnesota	3	–	6	–	0	169	195	98.4	100.0	97.6	3
NFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
New Orleans	6	–	3	–	0	201	151	105.8	103.1	103.9	2
Atlanta	7	–	2	–	0	222	175	104.0	103.6	104.9	4
Tampa Bay	6	–	3	–	0	188	206	96.0	96.9	98.9	2
Carolina	1	–	8	–	0	104	215	92.9	90.9	90.5	2
NFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Francisco	3	–	6	–	0	160	198	96.5	96.4	98.3	4
St. Louis	4	–	5	–	0	160	164	96.3	96.3	97.1	4
Seattle	5	–	4	–	0	166	199	95.9	95.8	98.1	3
Arizona	3	–	6	–	0	175	261	91.8	93.5	92.6	4
AFC East	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
NY Jets	7	–	2	–	0	208	150	107.1	106.0	106.6	2
New England	7	–	2	–	0	258	214	106.3	105.0	106.8	3
Miami	5	–	4	–	0	172	192	102.8	102.2	102.0	3
Buffalo	1	–	8	–	0	164	245	95.0	94.7	92.9	2
AFC North	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Baltimore	6	–	3	–	0	196	165	106.8	104.8	105.1	4
Pittsburgh	6	–	3	–	0	200	162	103.2	104.1	104.2	2
Cleveland	3	–	6	–	0	172	182	101.6	100.3	100.7	4
Cincinnati	2	–	7	–	0	184	213	98.0	98.8	96.7	3
AFC South	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
Indianapolis	6	–	3	–	0	240	185	105.4	104.1	104.7	4
Tennessee	5	–	4	–	0	241	179	102.1	104.2	101.6	4
Houston	4	–	5	–	0	217	257	97.3	97.0	97.4	2
Jacksonville	5	–	4	–	0	196	250	94.0	95.9	98.3	3
AFC West	Won		Lost		Tied	Pts	Opp	PiRate	Mean	Biased	HFA
San Diego	4	–	5	–	0	239	197	102.6	102.2	101.9	4
Oakland	5	–	4	–	0	235	188	100.2	100.6	101.7	2
Kansas City	5	–	4	–	0	212	194	97.9	98.7	99.1	4
Denver	3	–	6	–	0	203	252	95.9	97.3	94.8	2

 

Home Team in CAPS	(N) Denotes Neutral Site
Week 10: November 18-22, 2010
Vegas Line as of 12:30 PM EDT Tuesday
Favorite	Underdog	PiRate	Mean	Bias	Vegas	Totals
MIAMI	Chicago	6.4	5.6	4.2	1 1/2	40
PITTSBURGH	Oakland	5.0	5.5	4.5	7 1/2	41
NEW YORK JETS	Houston	11.8	11.0	11.2	6 1/2	45 1/2
Baltimore	CAROLINA	11.9	11.9	12.6	10	37 1/2
TENNESSEE	Washington	10.5	11.0	12.1	7	44
Detroit	DALLAS	3.3	-0.1	-3.0	-6 1/2	47
Green Bay	MINNESOTA	6.7	3.3	3.9	3	44
CINCINNATI	Buffalo	6.0	7.1	6.8	5 1/2	44
Cleveland	JACKSONVILLE	4.6	1.4	-0.6	1 1/2	43
KANSAS CITY	Arizona	10.1	9.2	10.5	7 1/2	44
NEW ORLEANS	Seattle	11.9	9.3	7.8	11 1/2	44
Atlanta	ST. LOUIS	4.7	3.3	3.8	3	43
SAN FRANCISCO	Tampa Bay	4.5	3.5	3.4	3	41 1/2
NEW ENGLAND	Indianapolis	3.9	2.6	5.1	3	50 1/2
PHILADELPHIA	New York Giants	3.4	4.0	2.7	3	48 1/2
SAN DIEGO	Denver	10.7	8.9	11.1	10	50

 

PiRate Passer Rating
Player	Team	AYPA	Int%	PiRate #
Michael Vick	PHI	7.5	0.00	126.0
Peyton Manning	IND	6.1	1.03	109.1
Kyle Orton	DEN	6.6	1.43	108.4
Tom Brady	NE	6	1.32	106.0
Matt Cassel	KC	5.7	1.50	102.7
Phillip Rivers	SD	7	2.43	101.8
Matt Ryan	ATL	5.5	1.48	101.8
Josh Freeman	TB	5.7	1.85	99.6
Vince Young	TEN	5.8	2.14	97.6
Colt McCoy	CLE	5.6	2.02	97.6
Seneca Wallace	CLE	5.4	2.00	96.6
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	6.1	2.53	95.9
Matt Schaub	HOU	5.8	2.34	95.9
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	5.2	2.01	95.4
Joe Flacco	BAL	5.5	2.36	94.1
Aaron Rodger	GB	5.6	2.97	89.2
Kevin Kolb	PHI	4.9	2.61	88.4
Tony Romo	DAL	5.7	3.29	87.0
Sam Bradford	STL	4.1	2.40	85.9
Jason Campbell	OAK	4.8	2.92	85.1
Drew Brees	NO	5.1	3.21	84.3
Carson Palmer	CIN	4.7	3.06	83.4
Chad Henne	MIA	5	3.27	83.2
Kerry Collins	TEN	4.2	2.80	82.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	4.6	3.08	82.6
Donovan McNabb	WAS	4.8	3.57	79.5
Shaun Hill	DET	4.4	3.37	79.0
Jay Cutler	CHI	4.8	3.66	78.7
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	3.7	2.97	78.6
Eli Manning	NYG	5.4	4.08	78.4
David Garrard	JAX	5.1	3.89	78.3
Alex Smith	SF	4.2	3.72	74.8
Jimmy Clausen	CAR	2.8	2.90	74.2
Bruce Gradkowski	OAK	4.3	3.92	73.6
Derek Anderson	ARI	3.7	3.87	70.7
Jon Kitna	DAL	5	5.22	66.0
Brett Favre	MIN	4	5.54	57.6
Matt Moore	CAR	2	6.99	33.7
Formula: (((7 * AYPA) – (11 * Int%) + 105) *0.8
AYPA is Air Yards Per Pass Attempt.  It eliminates Yards After Catch and can be found at advancednflstats.com