The Pi-Rate Ratings

September 23, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Three–September 27-28, 2009

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

 

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

NY Giants

105.6

104.5

106.1

2-0-0

56

48

Philadelphia

105.3

104.6

104.3

1-1-0

60

58

Dallas

98.5

102.6

101.3

1-1-0

65

54

Washington

96.3

97.8

97.5

1-1-0

26

30

               
NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Minnesota

104.9

104.0

105.3

2-0-0

61

33

Chicago

102.7

100.7

102.4

1-1-0

32

35

Green Bay

98.8

99.4

100.1

1-1-0

45

46

Detroit

92.8

91.9

90.8

0-2-0

40

72

               
NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New Orleans

108.8

108.0

108.0

2-0-0

93

49

Atlanta

105.1

102.2

103.1

2-0-0

47

27

Carolina  

100.2

96.8

96.9

0-2-0

30

66

Tampa Bay

91.4

95.1

93.6

0-2-0

41

67

               
NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Francisco

101.9

101.6

103.0

2-0-0

43

26

Arizona

101.0

102.0

102.3

1-1-0

47

37

Seattle

97.3

99.5

99.8

1-1-0

38

23

St. Louis

90.6

91.5

90.9

0-2-0

7

37

               
AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New England

105.9

103.0

104.6

1-1-0

34

40

NY Jets

101.8

103.7

104.6

2-0-0

40

16

Buffalo

99.9

100.3

100.5

1-1-0

57

45

Miami

96.5

97.4

98.7

0-2-0

30

46

               
AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Baltimore

107.7

106.3

106.9

2-0-0

69

50

Pittsburgh

106.7

104.3

105.1

1-1-0

27

27

Cincinnati

99.9

98.3

98.3

1-1-0

38

36

Cleveland

91.9

92.4

87.7

0-2-0

26

61

               
AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Tennessee

103.9

100.5

100.7

0-2-0

41

47

Indianapolis

102.9

103.2

104.7

2-0-0

41

35

Houston

101.8

97.8

100.4

1-1-0

41

55

Jacksonville

92.6

97.5

94.9

0-2-0

29

45

               
AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Diego

104.6

102.9

102.6

1-1-0

50

51

Denver

97.2

100.4

98.2

2-0-0

39

13

Oakland

95.1

95.9

95.1

1-1-0

33

34

Kansas City

90.0

94.3

91.9

0-2-0

34

51

 

This Week’s Games

 
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
   

 

 

 

 

 

HFA for Week 3 = 2.8  

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, September 27, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

NEW YORK JETS Tennessee

0.7

6.0

6.7

3   

37   

HOUSTON Jacksonville

12.0

3.1

8.3

3 1/2

46 1/2

PHILADELPHIA Kansas City

18.1

13.1

15.2

NL

NL

BALTIMORE Cleveland

18.6

16.7

22.0

13   

38 1/2

New York Giants TAMPA BAY

11.4

6.6

9.7

6 1/2

44   

Washington DETROIT

0.7

3.1

3.9

6 1/2

38 1/2

Green Bay ST. LOUIS

5.4

5.1

6.4

6 1/2

41   

MINNESOTA San Francisco

5.8

5.2

5.1

6 1/2

40   

NEW ENGLAND Atlanta

3.6

3.6

4.3

4   

44 1/2

Chicago SEATTLE

2.6

-1.6

-0.2

2   

37   

New Orleans BUFFALO

6.1

4.9

4.7

6   

51 1/2

SAN DIEGO Miami

10.9

8.3

6.7

6   

44   

Pittsburgh CINCINNATI

4.0

3.2

4.0

4   

37   

OAKLAND Denver

0.7

-1.7

-0.3

-1 1/2

36   

ARIZONA Indianapolis

0.9

1.6

0.4

2 1/2

47 1/2

   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, September 28, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

DALLAS Carolina

1.1

8.6

7.2

9   

47   

               

 

For the PiRate Picks of the week, please go to: www.piratings.webs.com

September 16, 2009

NFL Football Week 2 PiRate Ratings and Spreads

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
   
NFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Philadelphia 107.2 107.9 108.5 1-0-0 38 10
N Y Giants 105.6 106.2 107.9 1-0-0 23 17
Dallas 98.8 103.2 104.1 1-0-0 34 21
Washington 98.8 99.6 100.4 0-1-0 17 23
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased
Minnesota 105.7 103.7 105.6 1-0-0 34 20
Chicago 101.8 100.3 101.7 0-1-1 15 21
Green Bay 101.2 101.5 102.4 1-0-0 21 15
Detroit 91.7 91.2 91.9 0-1-0 27 45
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased
New Orleans 106.4 103.7 105.7 1-0-0 45 27
Atlanta 104.9 102.0 104.5 1-0-0 19 7
Carolina 100.6 98.7 100.6 0-1-0 10 38
Tampa Bay 92.4 97.0 96.8 0-1-0 21 34
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased
San Francisco 99.2 97.4 101.2 1-0-0 20 16
Seattle 99.2 99.2 101.6 1-0-0 28 0
Arizona 98.6 99.3 100.9 0-1-0 16 20
St. Louis 88.9 89.0 89.7 0-1-0 0 28
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased
New England 106.7 105.7 106.2 1-0-0 25 24
N Y Jets 100.6 101.0 102.2 1-0-0 24 7
Buffalo 98.9 98.4 100.7 0-1-0 24 25
Miami 97.9 97.3 99.7 0-1-0 7 19
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased
Pittsburgh 107.4 108.2 107.4 1-0-0 13 10
Baltimore 106.9 106.0 107.5 1-0-0 38 24
Cincinnati 97.5 95.6 98.7 0-1-0 7 12
Cleveland 95.0 94.3 96.2 0-1-0 20 34
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased
Tennessee 107.0 104.6 104.8 0-1-0 10 13
Indianapolis 101.3 105.4 105.6 1-0-0 14 12
Houston 99.0 96.4 99.2 0-1-0 7 24
Jacksonville 95.1 99.0 100.1 0-1-0 12 14
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased
San Diego 105.2 103.4 104.2 1-0-0 24 20
Oakland 95.2 94.2 98.0 0-1-0 20 24
Denver 94.9 96.8 96.0 1-0-0 12 7
Kansas City 90.0 93.3 93.1 0-1-0 24 38

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site
HFA for Week 2 = 2.5
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias
Oakland KANSAS CITY 2.7 -1.6 2.4
TENNESSEE Houston 10.5 10.7 8.1
New England NEW YORK JETS 3.6 2.2 1.5
GREEN BAY Cincinnati 6.2 9.7 6.2
Minnesota DETROIT 16.5 15.0 16.2
PHILADELPHIA New Orleans 3.3 6.7 5.3
ATLANTA Carolina 6.8 5.8 6.4
WASHINGTON St. Louis 12.4 13.1 13.2
Arizona JACKSONVILLE 1.0 -2.2 -1.7
SAN FRANCISCO Seattle 2.5 0.7 2.1
BUFFALO Tampa Bay 9.0 3.9 6.4
DENVER Cleveland 2.4 3.7 2.3
SAN DIEGO Baltimore 0.8 -0.1 -0.8
Pittsburgh CHICAGO 3.1 5.4 3.2
New York Giants DALLAS 4.3 0.5 1.3
Monday, September 21, 2009
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias
Indianapolis MIAMI 0.9 5.6 3.4

September 8, 2009

NFL Football Week 1 PiRate Ratings and Spreads

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

Rating

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Philadelphia

102.1

106.5

107.2

0-0-0

0

0

New York

102.0

105.8

107.0

0-0-0

0

0

Washington

95.2

99.6

100.2

0-0-0

0

0

Dallas

93.4

102.2

101.0

0-0-0

0

0

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

Rating

Mean

Biased

 

 

 

Minnesota

101.8

102.5

105.2

0-0-0

0

0

Chicago

98.5

100.9

101.2

0-0-0

0

0

Green Bay

97.3

100.6

102.1

0-0-0

0

0

Detroit

88.4

90.7

92.3

0-0-0

0

0

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

Rating

Mean

Biased

 

 

 

New Orleans

102.5

101.8

104.0

0-0-0

0

0

Atlanta

101.1

101.6

102.4

0-0-0

0

0

Carolina  

98.5

102.5

103.3

0-0-0

0

0

Tampa Bay

90.6

98.2

96.7

0-0-0

0

0

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

Rating

Mean

Biased

 

 

 

Arizona

96.3

101.7

101.5

0-0-0

0

0

San Francisco

94.3

96.1

98.2

0-0-0

0

0

Seattle

93.4

95.7

98.5

0-0-0

0

0

St. Louis

87.5

90.5

90.9

0-0-0

0

0

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

Rating

Mean

Biased

 

 

 

New England

104.2

106.2

108.8

0-0-0

0

0

New York

94.7

98.5

97.5

0-0-0

0

0

Miami

94.5

99.2

101.8

0-0-0

0

0

Buffalo

94.2

96.9

96.5

0-0-0

0

0

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

Rating

Mean

Biased

 

 

 

Pittsburgh

104.0

109.5

108.8

0-0-0

0

0

Baltimore

103.5

106.4

106.9

0-0-0

0

0

Cincinnati

94.2

96.5

95.8

0-0-0

0

0

Cleveland

91.7

94.5

94.9

0-0-0

0

0

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

Rating

Mean

Biased

 

 

 

Tennessee

103.2

105.3

105.4

0-0-0

0

0

Indianapolis

97.9

105.8

106.2

0-0-0

0

0

Houston

97.7

99.5

100.7

0-0-0

0

0

Jacksonville

91.3

98.2

97.4

0-0-0

0

0

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

Rating

Mean

Biased

 

 

 

San Diego

102.0

103.9

105.5

0-0-0

0

0

Oakland

91.2

94.0

94.7

0-0-0

0

0

Denver

91.0

95.6

95.0

0-0-0

0

0

Kansas City

86.2

92.8

92.9

0-0-0

0

0

 

This Week’s Games            
Home Team in Bold (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
   

 

 

 

 

 

HFA for Week 1 = 2.8  

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, September 10

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

PITTSBURGH Tennessee

3.6

7.0

6.2

6   

35   

   

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, September 13, 2009

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

ATLANTA Miami

9.3

5.2

3.4

4   

43   

BALTIMORE Kansas City

20.1

16.4

16.8

13   

36   

Philadelphia CAROLINA

0.8

1.2

1.1

1   

43 1/2

CINCINNATI Denver

6.0

3.7

3.6

4 1/2

43 1/2

Minnesota CLEVELAND

7.3

5.2

7.5

4   

40   

HOUSTON N. Y. Jets

5.8

3.8

6.0

4 1/2

43   

INDIANAPOLIS Jacksonville

9.4

10.4

11.6

7   

44 1/2

NEW ORLEANS Detroit

16.9

13.9

14.5

13   

48 1/2

Dallas TAMPA BAY

0.0

1.2

1.5

6   

39   

ARIZONA San Francisco

4.8

8.4

6.1

6 1/2

46 1/2

N. Y. Giants Washington

9.6

9.0

9.6

6 1/2

37 1/2

SEATTLE St. Louis

8.7

8.0

10.4

8 1/2

41 1/2

GREEN BAY Chicago

1.6

2.5

3.7

3 1/2

46 1/2

   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, September 14, 2009

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

NEW ENGLAND Buffalo

12.8

12.1

15.1

11   

47 1/2

San Diego OAKLAND

8.0

7.1

8.0

9 1/2

43   

December 29, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation: Week 17–December 29, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation

Week 17-December 28, 2008

 

The regular season of year two in the Pro Football Computer Simulation League has now concluded with the final week of games simulated Sunday evening.

 

The playoffs will begin next week, and I have included the playoff schedule following this week’s recaps.

 

1981 Cincinnati  31  2003 Kansas City  21

Pete Johnson rushed for 137 yards and two scores, and Ken Anderson passed for two others, as the Bengals finished with a winning record, but just barely missed out on the 6th playoff berth in the AFC.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1981 Cin

10

0

14

7

 

31

2003 KC

0

14

0

7

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cin

Stat

KC

 

 

 

 

19

FD

17

 

 

 

 

36-154

Rush-Yds

32-115

 

 

 

 

192

Pass Yds

211

 

 

 

 

16-27-0

Passes

19-34-1

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

5-42.4

Punt

6-43.3

 

 

 

 

2-19

PR

3-26

 

 

 

 

6-40

Pen

5-51

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

0-0

 

 

 

 

63

Play

66

 

 

 

 

346

Tot Yds

326

 

 

 

1999 St. Louis  27  1998 Atlanta  17

Kurt Warner passed for two touchdowns, and the Rams’ defense forced Atlanta into three turnovers in St. Louis territory, as the Rams earned home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Atl

3

0

0

14

 

17

1999 Stl

10

3

7

7

 

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Atl

Stat

Stl

 

 

 

 

16

FD

22

 

 

 

 

32-121

Rush-Yds

33-129

 

 

 

 

158

Pass Yds

294

 

 

 

 

13-25-2

Passes

21-34-1

 

 

 

 

2-14

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

6-41.8

Punt

4-42.8

 

 

 

 

2-13

PR

3-51

 

 

 

 

7-68

Pen

5-35

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

59

Play

68

 

 

 

 

265

Tot Yds

416

 

 

 

2007 New England 38  1990 Buffalo  17

Tom Brady completed his first 14 passes and finished the day with 4 TD tosses, as the Patriots topped the 500 point mark for the season.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1990 Buf

0

7

3

7

 

17

2007 NE

14

10

7

7

 

38

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buf

Stat

NE

 

 

 

 

15

FD

24

 

 

 

 

18-55

Rush-Yds

33-128

 

 

 

 

203

Pass Yds

335

 

 

 

 

18-31-2

Passes

26-36-0

 

 

 

 

3-23

Sacks

1-5

 

 

 

 

6-40.5

Punt

2-39.5

 

 

 

 

0-0

PR

2-43

 

 

 

 

7-55

Pen

6-40

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

52

Play

70

 

 

 

 

235

Tot Yds

458

 

 

 

1996 Green Bay  34  1991 Detroit  14

All season long, the Packers relied on a strong offense to outscore opponents, but in clinching the NFC North, it was the defense that led the way.  The green and gold stop troops held Barry Sanders to 71 yards rushing on 18 attempts; the Packer front line recorded two sacks on crucial third down plays; and they intercepted two passes that set up a touchdown and field goal.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1996 GB

13

7

14

0

 

34

1991 Det

0

0

7

7

 

14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GB

Stat

Det

 

 

 

 

20

FD

16

 

 

 

 

34-149

Rush-Yds

26-110

 

 

 

 

289

Pass Yds

167

 

 

 

 

22-35-1

Passes

15-28-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-15

 

 

 

 

5-47.0

Punt

6-43.7

 

 

 

 

3-79

PR

2-14

 

 

 

 

5-44

Pen

4-33

 

 

 

 

2-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

69

Play

56

 

 

 

 

438

Tot Yds

262

 

 

 

2005 Indianapolis 30  2000 Tennessee  16

Peyton Manning completed three touchdown passes to Marvin Harrison, as the Colts knocked off the Titans to claim the final AFC playoff berth.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2005 Ind

14

10

3

3

 

30

2000 Ten

3

3

3

7

 

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ind

Stat

Ten

 

 

 

 

23

FD

14

 

 

 

 

41-172

Rush-Yds

25-79

 

 

 

 

257

Pass Yds

155

 

 

 

 

19-27-0

Passes

13-28-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-19

 

 

 

 

4-41.8

Punt

7-43.9

 

 

 

 

3-26

PR

2-77

 

 

 

 

5-45

Pen

7-62

 

 

 

 

2-2

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

68

Play

55

 

 

 

 

429

Tot Yds

215

 

 

 

2000 Baltimore  20  1999 Jacksonville  10

The Ravens averaged just 14 points all season, but their defense yielded just 13.  Sunday, Baltimore held Jacksonville to just 72 yards and four first downs through the first three quarters and will enter the playoffs with the top defense in the league.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2000 Bal

3

7

10

0

 

20

1999 Jac

0

3

0

7

 

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bal

Stat

Jac

 

 

 

 

16

FD

8

 

 

 

 

42-177

Rush-Yds

27-47

 

 

 

 

129

Pass Yds

138

 

 

 

 

11-21-0

Passes

12-27-3

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

5-39

 

 

 

 

6-42.3

Punt

8-41.5

 

 

 

 

5-69

PR

3-22

 

 

 

 

8-82

Pen

6-47

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

63

Play

59

 

 

 

 

306

Tot Yds

146

 

 

 

1985 Chicago  27  2007 Houston  0

The Bears’ defense kept the Texans on their side of the field all day and posted the shutout, while Walter Payton rushed for 182 yards and two touchdowns.  Chicago finished in a three-way tie for first in the NFC North, but the Packers won the tiebreaker.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2007 Hou

0

0

0

0

 

0

1985 Chi

7

3

7

10

 

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hou

Stat

Chi

 

 

 

 

6

FD

24

 

 

 

 

11-19

Rush-Yds

56-242

 

 

 

 

153

Pass Yds

173

 

 

 

 

13-29-2

Passes

11-19-0

 

 

 

 

7-57

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

9-38.8

Punt

5-44.6

 

 

 

 

1-11

PR

6-74

 

 

 

 

6-55

Pen

7-70

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

47

Play

75

 

 

 

 

115

Tot Yds

415

 

 

 

2002 Tampa Bay  26  2000 Oakland  10

The Buccaneers played a solid game for four quarters, as the offense held onto the ball for almost 36 minutes, and the defense held Oakland at bay.  With the win, Tampa Bay clinched the NFC South Division.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2002 TB

3

3

6

14

 

26

2000 Oak

0

7

3

0

 

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TB

Stat

Oak

 

 

 

 

20

FD

13

 

 

 

 

28-103

Rush-Yds

30-89

 

 

 

 

266

Pass Yds

182

 

 

 

 

19-35-1

Passes

13-28-1

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

2-19

 

 

 

 

6-43.2

Punt

7-45.4

 

 

 

 

4-51

PR

2-15

 

 

 

 

5-38

Pen

9-90

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

64

Play

60

 

 

 

 

362

Tot Yds

252

 

 

 

2005 Pittsburgh  27  1987 Cleveland  24

Willie Parker ran for 103 yards, and Chris Hope returned a Bernie Kosar interception 59 yards for a game-clinching score, as the Steelers came from behind to win.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2005 Pit

0

3

14

10

 

27

1987 Cle

7

7

3

7

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pit

Stat

Cle

 

 

 

 

19

FD

18

 

 

 

 

31-143

Rush-Yds

16-59

 

 

 

 

187

Pass Yds

341

 

 

 

 

15-25-1

Passes

27-48-2

 

 

 

 

2-12

Sacks

3-25

 

 

 

 

5-41.6

Punt

5-40.0

 

 

 

 

2-17

PR

2-23

 

 

 

 

7-60

Pen

6-52

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

58

Play

67

 

 

 

 

318

Tot Yds

375

 

 

 

1998 Minnesota  27  1986 New York Giants  17

Cris Carter and Randy Moss both topped 100 receiving yards, as the Vikings kept pace in the NFC North with Chicago and Green Bay.  The Giants were eliminated from the playoffs with the loss.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Min

3

14

7

3

 

27

1986 NYG

7

0

7

3

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Min

Stat

NYG

 

 

 

 

19

FD

18

 

 

 

 

36-137

Rush-Yds

29-111

 

 

 

 

242

Pass Yds

238

 

 

 

 

16-28-1

Passes

15-29-2

 

 

 

 

1-8

Sacks

2-21

 

 

 

 

5-42.8

Punt

7-42.7

 

 

 

 

4-57

PR

3-34

 

 

 

 

8-78

Pen

6-45

 

 

 

 

1-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

65

Play

60

 

 

 

 

371

Tot Yds

328

 

 

 

1987 New Orleans  28  1996 Carolina  23

Bobby Hebert passed for 201 yards and three touchdowns in the final period, as the Saints came from 16 points down to win and edge out the Panthers for third place in the NFC South.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1987 NO

0

7

0

21

 

28

1996 Car

14

6

3

0

 

23

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NO

Stat

Car

 

 

 

 

23

FD

15

 

 

 

 

21-78

Rush-Yds

26-88

 

 

 

 

401

Pass Yds

170

 

 

 

 

29-51-1

Passes

14-26-1

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

1-9

 

 

 

 

6-43.5

Punt

6-34.7

 

 

 

 

4-69

PR

2-17

 

 

 

 

4-25

Pen

7-50

 

 

 

 

3-3

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

72

Play

53

 

 

 

 

479

Tot Yds

249

 

 

 

2004 Philadelphia  27  1992 Dallas  21

Donovan McNabb ran for 77 yards and two touchdowns, and passed for another, as the Eagles knocked Dallas out of the playoffs.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2004 Phi

3

7

10

7

 

27

1992 Dal

0

7

14

0

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Phi

Stat

Dal

 

 

 

 

19

FD

18

 

 

 

 

31-116

Rush-Yds

35-143

 

 

 

 

223

Pass Yds

168

 

 

 

 

17-30-1

Passes

14-25-1

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

2-16

 

 

 

 

6-42.7

Punt

5-38.6

 

 

 

 

1-(-2)

PR

4-38

 

 

 

 

5-40

Pen

11-115

 

 

 

 

2-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

62

Play

62

 

 

 

 

332

Tot Yds

295

 

 

 

 

1984 Miami  31  1998 New York Jets  21

Dan Marino topped 5,000 yards passing and 40 touchdowns for the season, as the Dolphins evened their record for the season.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 NYJ

6

8

7

0

 

21

1984 Mia

14

7

10

0

 

31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NYJ

Stat

Mia

 

 

 

 

16

FD

25

 

 

 

 

24-91

Rush-Yds

22-60

 

 

 

 

221

Pass Yds

403

 

 

 

 

13-25-0

Passes

31-52-2

 

 

 

 

1-6

Sacks

3-20

 

 

 

 

6-41.8

Punt

5-47.6

 

 

 

 

3-41

PR

2-30

 

 

 

 

8-82

Pen

5-35

 

 

 

 

2-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

50

Play

77

 

 

 

 

306

Tot Yds

443

 

 

 

2005 Seattle  24  1998 Arizona  7

In a game with little or nothing on the line, Shaun Alexander topped the 1,500 yard rushing mark, as the Seahawks cruised to the victory.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Ari

0

0

7

0

 

7

2005 Sea

0

7

10

7

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ari

Stat

Sea

 

 

 

 

12

FD

19

 

 

 

 

26-77

Rush-Yds

34-174

 

 

 

 

172

Pass Yds

157

 

 

 

 

18-37-3

Passes

14-24-0

 

 

 

 

4-31

Sacks

1-6

 

 

 

 

8-43.4

Punt

6-42.7

 

 

 

 

3-22

PR

5-81

 

 

 

 

5-38

Pen

6-44

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

67

Play

59

 

 

 

 

218

Tot Yds

325

 

 

 

1998 Denver  21  2006 San Diego  17

With the AFC West Division title up for grabs, Terrell Davis and LaDainian Tomlinson put on a show for the simulated audience.  Davis rushed for 152 yard and two touchdowns, while Tomlinson rushed for 121 yard and two touchdowns.  The game-winner for the Broncos came when Trevor Pryce sacked Phillip Rivers and forced a fumble, which Rod Smith recovered and returned 39 yards for the score.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2006 SD

3

7

7

0

 

17

1998 Den

7

0

14

0

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SD

Stat

Den

 

 

 

 

15

FD

17

 

 

 

 

30-137

Rush-Yds

39-171

 

 

 

 

133

Pass Yds

186

 

 

 

 

12-22-1

Passes

17-25-0

 

 

 

 

2-13

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

7-41.9

Punt

6-43.5

 

 

 

 

4-54

PR

5-68

 

 

 

 

6-52

Pen

6-50

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

54

Play

64

 

 

 

 

257

Tot Yds

357

 

 

 

1984 San Francisco  27  1991 Washington  24

Matt Cavanaugh, subbing for the injured Joe Montana, came into the game in the fourth quarter and tossed touchdown passes to Freddie Solomon and Dwight Clark, as the 49ers erased an 11-point deficit to beat the Redskins.  Washington still won the NFC East thanks to losses by the Cowboys and Giants.

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1984 SF

10

0

3

14

 

27

1991 Was

7

7

3

7

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SF

Stat

Was

 

 

 

 

22

FD

18

 

 

 

 

29-121

Rush-Yds

32-119

 

 

 

 

267

Pass Yds

209

 

 

 

 

23-38-1

Passes

16-27-1

 

 

 

 

1-5

Sacks

2-13

 

 

 

 

6-43.0

Punt

6-44.3

 

 

 

 

3-22

PR

5-51

 

 

 

 

5-30

Pen

4-37

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

68

Play

61

 

 

 

 

383

Tot Yds

315

 

 

 

Final Regular Season Standings

Pro Football Computer Simulation League

National Football Conference

East Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1991 Washington Redskins

9

7

0

327

259

102.0

1992 Dallas Cowboys

9

7

0

328

331

99.4

1986 New York Giants

8

8

0

266

238

100.5

2004 Philadelphia Eagles

6

10

0

283

305

97.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1996 Green Bay Packers

12

4

0

481

259

115.6

1998 Minnesota Vikings

12

4

0

462

314

111.8

1985 Chicago Bears

12

4

0

344

218

110.1

1991 Detroit Lions

3

13

0

277

440

94.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9

7

0

313

273

103.2

1998 Atlanta Falcons

8

8

0

304

390

96.7

1987 New Orleans Saints

7

9

0

321

322

101.6

1996 Carolina Panthers

6

10

0

323

389

96.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1999 St. Louis Rams

12

4

0

481

363

105.8

1984 San Francisco 49ers

10

6

0

421

330

103.7

2005 Seattle Seahawks

7

9

0

308

402

94.7

1998 Arizona Cardinals

2

14

0

212

472

84.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

American Football Conference

East Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2007 New England Patriots

11

5

0

530

360

108.6

1984 Miami Dolphins

8

8

0

470

498

97.3

1990 Buffalo Bills

7

9

0

415

397

99.7

1998 New York Jets

7

9

0

330

402

95.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2000 Baltimore Ravens

13

3

0

230

206

99.2

1981 Cincinnati Bengals

9

7

0

328

310

98.5

1987 Cleveland Browns

4

12

0

267

386

92.0

2005 Pittsburgh Steelers

3

13

0

237

323

94.0

           

 

South Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2000 Tennessee Titans

13

3

0

362

192

109.6

2005 Indianapolis Colts

9

7

0

407

382

102.9

1999 Jacksonville Jaguars

5

11

0

282

359

97.0

2007 Houston Texans

4

12

0

301

470

91.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1998 Denver Broncos

12

4

0

465

324

106.7

2006 San Diego Chargers

10

6

0

380

332

102.0

2000 Oakland Raiders

6

10

0

338

383

96.4

2003 Kansas City Chiefs

3

13

0

348

523

90.2

 

 

Pro Football Computer Simulation League Playoffs

 

NFC Seedings

1. 1999 St. Louis Rams

2. 1996 Green Bay Packers

3. 1991 Washington Redskins

4. 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5. 1985 Chicago Bears

6. 1998 Minnesota Vikings

 

AFC Seedings

1. 2000 Tennessee Titans

2. 2000 Baltimore Ravens

3. 1998 Denver Broncos

4. 2007 New England Patriots

5. 2006 San Diego Chargers

6. 2005 Indianapolis Colts

 

First Round Schedule

 

1998 Minnesota Vikings at 1991 Washington Redskins

1985 Chicago Bears at 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2005 Indianapolis Colts at 1998 Denver Broncos

2006 San Diego Chargers at 2007 New England Patriots

 

Look here next Monday, January 5, 2009, for the results of the first round of the playoffs.  

 

Coming January 2, 2009: the results from the College Football Simulated Playoff semi-final round games-Southern Cal vs. Oklahoma and Florida vs. Texas.

December 26, 2008

PiRate Ratings Week 17 NFL Previews: December 28, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 17

Still Much To Be Decided

 

It seems like the end of the NFL season has come quickly this year.  Maybe it seems that way because last season coincided with the Presidential election that seemed to last forever.

 

Unfortunately, the end of this season coincides with too many holiday plans, and this preview will be abbreviated.  I will list all the playoff possibilities in this article in addition to the standings, ratings, and games.  I won’t list an in-depth game by game preview or make picks due to those time limitations.

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

12

3

0

408

274

108.60

107.65

107.11

2

Dallas

9

6

0

356

321

102.49

103.67

103.29

2

Philadelphia

8

6

1

372

283

106.53

105.48

103.26

2

Washington

8

7

0

241

269

98.55

99.31

99.83

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Minnesota

9

6

0

359

314

104.06

103.81

103.64

2

Chicago

9

6

0

351

319

102.96

101.42

102.34

2

Green Bay

5

10

0

388

359

103.77

101.48

98.91

2

Detroit

0

15

0

247

486

86.86

88.16

86.27

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Carolina

11

4

0

381

298

106.14

105.11

106.11

2

Atlanta

10

5

0

360

298

105.19

104.46

105.79

2

Tampa Bay

9

6

0

337

292

104.06

102.01

102.68

2

New Orleans

8

7

0

432

360

104.61

104.52

102.09

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Arizona

8

7

0

393

405

97.60

97.33

99.25

3

San Francisco

6

9

0

312

357

94.23

95.55

96.42

3

Seattle

4

11

0

273

358

92.89

94.36

94.11

3

St. Louis

2

13

0

205

434

84.00

86.47

86.56

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Miami

10

5

0

321

300

98.73

99.42

102.29

2

New England

10

5

0

397

309

103.21

104.76

105.46

2

New York

9

6

0

388

332

100.62

99.48

100.88

2

Buffalo

7

8

0

336

329

96.92

96.82

98.41

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Pittsburgh

11

4

0

316

223

108.32

107.71

106.47

2

Baltimore

10

5

0

358

237

108.82

107.90

106.01

3

Cleveland

4

11

0

232

319

95.34

94.57

92.24

2

Cincinnati

3

11

1

188

358

92.20

93.93

93.29

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Tennessee

13

2

0

375

211

110.38

109.14

108.97

2

Indianapolis

11

4

0

354

298

104.55

104.95

105.76

2

Houston

7

8

0

335

370

98.63

98.85

99.16

3

Jacksonville

5

10

0

295

340

97.86

97.78

97.59

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Denver

8

7

0

349

396

95.68

96.24

98.05

2

San Diego

7

8

0

387

326

103.66

103.18

102.23

2

Oakland

4

11

0

232

364

91.06

92.37

93.35

2

Kansas City

2

13

0

285

424

91.49

92.05

92.17

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 The Playoffs Scenarios

NFC Already in Playoffs

New York Giants: Clinched #1 Seed & home field advantage

Carolina: Clinched a playoff spot

Atlanta: Clinched a playoff spot

Arizona: Clinched West Division and will play on first weekend of the playoffs

 

NFC Scenarios

NFC EAST

DALLAS

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a Chicago loss or tie and a Tampa Bay loss

C. A tie plus a Minnesota loss or tie and a Tampa Bay loss

D. A tie plus a Chicago loss and a Tampa Bay tie

E. A tie plus a Minnesota loss and a Tampa Bay tie

 

PHILADELPHIA

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus losses by Tampa Bay and Minnesota

B. A win plus losses by Tampa Bay and Chicago

 

NFC NORTH

MINNESOTA

Clinches Division with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus Chicago loss or tie

C. A Chicago loss

 

CHICAGO

Clinches Division with:

A. A win plus a Minnesota loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Minnesota loss

 

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Minnesota win and losses or ties by both Dallas and Tampa Bay

B. A tie plus losses by both Dallas and Tampa Bay

 

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA has already clinched a playoff spot

Clinches Division and First Round Bye with:

A. A win plus a Carolina loss

 

CAROLINA has already clinched a playoff spot

Clinches Division and First Round Bye with:

A. A win or tie

B. An Atlanta loss or tie

 

TAMPA BAY

In the playoffs as a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Dallas loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Dallas loss and Minnesota loss or tie

C. A tie plus a Dallas loss and a Chicago loss or tie

D. A tie plus a Dallas tie and a Minnesota tie and a Chicago win or tie

E. A tie plus a Dallas tie and a Chicago tie and a Minnesota win or tie

 

AFC Already in Playoffs

Tennessee: Clinched #1 seed & home field advantage

Pittsburgh: Clinched division & first round bye

 

AFC Scenarios

AFC EAST

The AFC East Division Winner will play on the first weekend of the playoffs

 

MIAMI

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a New England loss or tie

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A tie plus a Baltimore loss

 

NEW ENGLAND

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win plus a Miami loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Miami loss

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Baltimore loss or tie

B. A tie plus a Baltimore loss

 

NEW YORK JETS

Can clinch the Division with:

A. A win plus a New England loss

 

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win plus a Baltimore loss

 

AFC NORTH

(Pittsburgh has already won the division and secured a first-round bye as the #2 seed)

 

BALTIMORE

Can clinch a Wildcard with:

A. A win

B. A tie plus a Miami loss or tie

C. A tie plus a New England loss or tie

D. A New England loss

 

AFC SOUTH

Tennessee has clinched division and the #1 seed, while Indianapolis has clinched a Wildcard

 

AFC WEST

DENVER plays At SAN DIEGO.  The winner of this game wins the Division.  It the game ends in a tie, then Denver wins the Division.  The Division winner will play on the first weekend of the playoffs.

 

If The Season Ended Today

NFC Seedings

1. New York Giants

2. Carolina

3. Minnesota

4. Arizona

5. Atlanta

6. Dallas

 

Dallas would play at Minnesota and Atlanta would play at Arizona.  The higher remaining seed would then play at Carolina and the weaker remaining seed would play at the New York Giants

 

AFC Seedings

1. Tennessee

2. Pittsburgh

3. Miami

4. Denver

5. Indianapolis

6. Baltimore

 

Baltimore would play at Miami and Indianapolis would play at Denver.  The higher remaining seed would then play at Pittsburgh and the weaker remaining seed would play at Tennessee

 

Here Is My Best Guess As To How The Season Will End

 

In the NFC, Philadelphia will take advantage of home field advantage and a revenge factor and defeat Dallas.

 

Atlanta will dismiss St. Louis with ease.

 

Carolina will stumble at New Orleans as Drew Brees finishes off one of the best passing seasons ever.

 

Tampa Bay handles Oakland at home but not by much.

 

Minnesota struggles but hangs up to beat the New York Giants after the Giants pull their starters in the second half.

 

Chicago falls at Houston as the Texans finish 8-8.

 

That would leave Atlanta and Minnesota as division champions and Tampa Bay as the final Wildcard.  Dallas, Philadelphia, and Chicago would be eliminated.

 

In the AFC, Miami will take advantage of Brett Favre’s shoulder problems and take out the Jets at the Meadowlands.

 

New England will go to Buffalo and put up some big numbers in a win, looking like the true dark horse Super Bowl contender (but only until the Baltimore game ends).

 

Baltimore will methodically defeat Jacksonville in a rough game and ruin the weekend for fans in New England.

 

San Diego will take some revenge against Denver and claim the West Division title.

 

That would leave Miami and San Diego as division champions and Baltimore as the final Wildcard team.

 

Note: Weather forecasts and odds are those as of Friday, December 26, 2008, 12 Noon EST

 

You will now see multiple numbers given in the Vegas line and Ov/Un.  I am listing the range given by the different books in Vegas and offshore as of 12 Noon EST Friday, so you can use the one that best meets your needs.  Remember though, if you use parlays and teasers, you must use the same source.  You cannot play a parlay using the odds from different books.  There are no picks this week due to lack of time to study the games..

 

I leave it to you to find out the book in question regarding the spreads.  Generally, some of the big ones in Vegas are: Hilton, Caesar’s-Harrah’s, MGM Mirage, Stations, Leroy’s, Wynn, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, and The Palms.  Some of the large offshore books include: BetUs, Bodog, Sportsbook, BetJamaica, and Pinnacle.

 

Average Simulation Scores for each game are now rounded to nearest whole number.

 

Note: The ratings and the simulations do not take into account the fact that some teams will not play their regulars much if at all this week.

 

NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings-Week 17

 

Kansas City (2-13-0) at Cincinnati (3-11-1)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, strong wind, temperature in the mid 40’s

 

PiRate:                Cincinnati by 3               

Mean:                  Cincinnati by 4

Bias:                    Cincinnati by 3

 

Vegas:               Cincinnati by 2.5 to 3

Ov/Un:               37.5 to 38.5

 

100 Sims:           Cincinnati 78  Kansas City 22

Avg Sim Score:  Cincinnati 29  Kansas City 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Cincinnati 40  Kansas City 21

Outlier 1b Sim:  Kansas City 24  Cincinnati 14

 

 

St. Louis (2-13-0) at Atlanta (10-5-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Atlanta by 23

Mean:                  Atlanta by 20

Bias:                    Atlanta by 21

 

Vegas:               14 to 15.5  

Ov/Un:               44 to 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Atlanta 98  St. Louis 2

Avg Sim Score:  Atlanta 33  St. Louis 11

Outlier 1a Sim:  Atlanta 52  St. Louis 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  St. Louis 24  Atlanta 21

 

 

New England (10-5-0) at Buffalo (7-8-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain Showers, Very Strong Wind, Unseasonably mild temperature near 50

 

PiRate:                New England by 8

Mean:                  New England by 10

Bias:                    New England by 9

 

Vegas:               6 to 7   

Ov/Un:               40 to 41

 

100 Sims:           New England 73  Buffalo 27

Avg Sim Score:  New England 34  Buffalo 28

Outlier 1a Sim:  New England 45  Buffalo 23

Outlier 1b Sim:  Buffalo 31  New England 20

 

 

Detroit (0-15-0) at Green Bay (5-10-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Light snow ending after game starts, moderate wind, temperature in low 20’s

 

PiRate:                Green Bay by 19

Mean:                  Green Bay by 15

Bias:                    Green Bay by 15

 

Vegas:               Green Bay by 10 to 11.5      

Ov/Un:               42.5 to 43

 

100 Sims:           Green Bay 64  Detroit 35  1 Tie

Avg Sim Score:  Green Bay 33  Detroit 29

Outlier 1a Sim:  Green Bay 24  Detroit 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  Detroit 38  Green Bay 30

 

 

Tennessee (13-2-0) at Indianapolis (11-4-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Dome should be closed

 

PiRate:                Tennessee by 4

Mean:                  Tennessee by 2

Bias:                    Tennessee by 1

 

Vegas:                Tennessee by 3

Ov/Un:               38 to 38.5

 

100 Sims:           Indianapolis 58  Tennessee 42

Avg Sim Score:  Indianapolis 25  Tennessee 23

Outlier 1a Sim:  Indianapolis 28  Tennessee 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  Tennessee 24  Indianapolis 10

 

 

Chicago (9-6-0) at Houston (7-8-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Mostly sunny, light wind, temperature around 60

 

PiRate:                Chicago by 1

Mean:                  Tossup

Bias:                    Tossup

 

Vegas:               Houston by 2.5 to 3  

Ov/Un:               46 to 46.5

 

100 Sims:           Houston 51  Chicago 49

Avg Sim Score:  Houston 27  Chicago 27

Outlier 1a Sim:  Houston 37  Chicago 20

Outlier 1b Sim:  Chicago 32  Houston 17

 

 

Oakland (4-11-0) at Tampa Bay (9-6-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature near 80

 

PiRate:                Tampa Bay by 15

Mean:                  Tampa Bay by 12

Bias:                    Tampa Bay by 11

 

Vegas:               Tampa Bay by 12.5 to 14

Ov/Un:               39 to 39.5

 

100 Sims:           Tampa Bay 89  Oakland 11

Avg Sim Score:  Tampa Bay 26  Oakland 12

Outlier 1a Sim:  Tampa Bay 38  Oakland 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Oakland 27  Tampa Bay 21

 

 

Cleveland (4-11-0) at Pittsburgh (11-4-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain showers, strong wind, temperature in low to mid 50’s

 

PiRate:                Pittsburgh by 15

Mean:                 Pittsburgh by 15

Bias:                    Pittsburgh by 16

 

Vegas:                Pittsburgh by 10.5 to 11.5

Ov/Un:               31.5 to 33

 

100 Sims:           Pittsburgh 97  Cleveland 3

Avg Sim Score:  Pittsburgh 29  Cleveland 11

Outlier 1a Sim:  Pittsburgh 49  Cleveland 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cleveland 13  Pittsburgh 10 (2 other 3-point wins)

 

 

New York Giants (12-3-0) at Minnesota (9-6-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Giants by 3

Mean:                 Giants by 2

Bias:                    Giants by 1

 

Vegas:                Minnesota by 7 to 7.5

Ov/Un:               42

 

100 Sims:           Giants 54  Minnesota 46

Avg Sim Score:  Giants 23  Minnesota 20

Outlier 1a Sim:  Giants 31  Minnesota 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Minnesota 27  Giants 17

 

 

Carolina (11-4-0) at New Orleans (8-7-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Tossup

Mean:                  New Orleans by 1

Bias:                    Carolina by2

 

Vegas:               Carolina by 2.5 to 3

Ov/Un:               51.5 to 52.5

 

100 Sims:           New Orleans 55  Carolina 45

Avg Sim Score:  New Orleans 33  Carolina 32

Outlier 1a Sim:  New Orleans 44  Carolina 27

Outlier 1b Sim:  Carolina 35  New Orleans 20

 

 

Jacksonville (5-10-0) at Baltimore (10-5-0)

Time:           4:15PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping from around 60 to the mid 50’s

 

PiRate:                Baltimore by 14

Mean:                 Baltimore by 13

Bias:                   Baltimore by 11

 

Vegas:               Baltimore by 12 to 13.5

Ov/Un:               36 to 36.5

 

100 Sims:           Baltimore 83  Jacksonville 16  1 Tie

Avg Sim Score:  Baltimore 25  Jacksonville 13

Outlier 1a Sim:  Baltimore 24  Jacksonville 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jacksonville 20  Baltimore 14

 

 

Dallas (9-6-0) at Philadelphia (8-6-1)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Rain showers, moderate wind, temperature falling through the 50’s

 

PiRate:                Philadelphia by 6

Mean:                 Philadelphia by 4

Bias:                   Philadelphia by 2

 

Vegas:                Philadelphia by 0 to 2

Ov/Un:               42.5 to 43

 

100 Sims:           Philadelphia 61  Dallas 39

Avg Sim Score:  Philadelphia 27  Dallas 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Philadelphia 41  Dallas 24

Outlier 1b Sim:  Dallas 34  Philadelphia 24

 

 

Miami (10-5-0) at New York Jets (9-6-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain showers, moderate wind, temperature dropping from the mid 50’s to mid 40’s

 

PiRate:                Jets by 4

Mean:                 Jets by 2

Bias:                   Jets by 1

 

Vegas:                Jets by 2 to 3   

Ov/Un:               41.5 to 42.5

 

100 Sims:           Miami 50  Jets 50

Avg Sim Score:  Miami 25  Jets 25

Outlier 1a Sim:  Miami 27  Jets 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jets 20  Miami 12

 

 

Seattle (4-11-0) at Arizona (8-7-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Sunny, light wind, temperature in low 60’s

 

PiRate:                Arizona by 8

Mean:                  Arizona by 6

Bias:                    Arizona by 8

 

Vegas:               Arizona by 6 to 6.5

Ov/Un:               45 to 46

 

100 Sims:           Arizona 83  Seattle 17

Avg Sim Score:  Arizona 33  Seattle 23

Outlier 1a Sim:  Arizona 38  Seattle 16

Outlier 1b Sim:  Seattle 24  Arizona 20

 

 

Washington (8-7-0) at San Francisco (6-9-0)

Time:           4:15PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Showers possible, light wind, temperature in the mid 50’s

                    

PiRate:                Washington by 1

Mean:                  Washington by 1

Bias:                    Tossup

 

Vegas:               San Francisco by 3

Ov/Un:               37 to 37.5

 

100 Sims:           San Francisco 56  Washington 44

Avg Sim Score:  San Francisco 23  Washington 21

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Francisco 27  Washington 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Washington 21  San Francisco 13

 

 

Denver (8-7-0) at San Diego (7-8-0)

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature falling from mid to low 60’s

 

PiRate:                San Diego by 10

Mean:                  San Diego by   9

Bias:                    San Diego by   6

 

Vegas:                San Diego by 7.5 to 9.5

Ov/Un:               50 to 51

 

100 Sims:           San Diego 59  Denver 41

Avg Sim Score:  San Diego 34  Denver 30

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Diego 51  Denver 27

Outlier 1b Sim:  Denver 45  San Diego 31

December 22, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation For Week 16: December 22, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation For Week 16: December 22, 2008

 

Due to time constraints this week, I will just post the scores, standings, and stats for this week’s simulations.

 

This week’s scores:

2005 Indianapolis

31

1999 Jacksonville

20

2000 Baltimore

20

1992 Dallas

17

1991 Detroit

30

1987 New Orleans

21

1981 Cincinnati

24

1987 Cleveland

16

1984 Miami

35

2003 Kansas City

24

2000 Tennessee

21

2005 Pittsburgh

13

1991 Washington

27

2004 Philadelphia

17

1986 NY Giants

21

1996 Carolina

16

1984 San Francisco

31

1999 St. Louis

27

2007 New England

41

1998 Arizona

14

1998 Minnesota

34

1998 Atlanta

20

2000 Oakland

45

2007 Houston

17

2005 Seattle

24

1998 NY Jets

13

1998 Denver

28

1990 Buffalo

14

2006 San Diego

20

2002 Tampa Bay

19

1996 Green Bay

24

1985 Chicago

21

 

This week’s simulated game stats:

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1999 Jac

3

10

0

7

 

20

2005 Ind

10

7

7

7

 

31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jac

Stat

Ind

 

 

 

 

16

FD

22

 

 

 

 

35-117

Rush-Yds

36-172

 

 

 

 

184

Pass Yds

231

 

 

 

 

14-25-1

Passes

19-29-0

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

1-5

 

 

 

 

6-43.2

Punt

4-46.3

 

 

 

 

2-19

PR

3-40

 

 

 

 

7-59

Pen

5-35

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

61

Play

66

 

 

 

 

294

Tot Yds

398

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1992 Dal

0

3

7

7

 

17

2000 Bal

7

3

3

7

 

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dal

Stat

Bal

 

 

 

 

9

FD

15

 

 

 

 

32-66

Rush-Yds

42-113

 

 

 

 

139

Pass Yds

127

 

 

 

 

9-22-2

Passes

10-21-1

 

 

 

 

3-18

Sacks

1-12

 

 

 

 

8-41.6

Punt

7-40.6

 

 

 

 

3-79

PR

5-52

 

 

 

 

6-55

Pen

11-106

 

 

 

 

2-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

57

Play

64

 

 

 

 

187

Tot Yds

228

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1991 Det

3

10

10

7

 

30

1987 NO

0

7

14

0

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Det

Stat

NO

 

 

 

 

22

FD

15

 

 

 

 

47-229

Rush-Yds

17-45

 

 

 

 

153

Pass Yds

212

 

 

 

 

13-20-0

Passes

16-30-1

 

 

 

 

2-13

Sacks

2-13

 

 

 

 

3-47.3

Punt

5-44.6

 

 

 

 

2-19

PR

1-17

 

 

 

 

5-38

Pen

4-35

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

69

Play

49

 

 

 

 

369

Tot Yds

244

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1987 Cle

14

0

0

2

 

16

1981 Cin

3

14

7

0

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cle

Stat

Cin

 

 

 

 

16

FD

21

 

 

 

 

31-138

Rush-Yds

46-215

 

 

 

 

149

Pass Yds

129

 

 

 

 

13-25-1

Passes

11-17-0

 

 

 

 

4-26

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

6-40.3

Punt

4-39.8

 

 

 

 

2-7

PR

4-33

 

 

 

 

5-37

Pen

4-25

 

 

 

 

1-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

60

Play

63

 

 

 

 

261

Tot Yds

344

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2003 KC

7

3

14

0

 

24

1984 Mia

14

7

7

7

 

35

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KC

Stat

Mia

 

 

 

 

18

FD

22

 

 

 

 

25-93

Rush-Yds

31-88

 

 

 

 

228

Pass Yds

341

 

 

 

 

17-32-2

Passes

25-37-0

 

 

 

 

3-20

Sacks

3-18

 

 

 

 

4-38.8

Punt

4-45.5

 

 

 

 

2-23

PR

1-9

 

 

 

 

8-66

Pen

5-30

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

60

Play

71

 

 

 

 

301

Tot Yds

411

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2000 Ten

0

14

7

0

 

21

2005 Pit

3

10

0

0

 

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ten

Stat

Pit

 

 

 

 

16

FD

 

 

 

 

 

40-157

Rush-Yds

22-67

 

 

 

 

126

Pass Yds

231

 

 

 

 

10-17-0

Passes

18-35-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

4-26

 

 

 

 

5-43.6

Punt

7-41.3

 

 

 

 

3-54

PR

2-15

 

 

 

 

5-42

Pen

7-50

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

57

Play

61

 

 

 

 

283

Tot Yds

272

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1991 Was

3

0

21

3

 

27

2004 Phi

10

0

7

0

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Was

Stat

Phi

 

 

 

 

21

FD

18

 

 

 

 

41-193

Rush-Yds

24-81

 

 

 

 

218

Pass Yds

248

 

 

 

 

17-26-1

Passes

19-35-3

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

5-42.4

Punt

5-40.8

 

 

 

 

3-29

PR

2-13

 

 

 

 

7-58

Pen

2-37

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

68

Play

59

 

 

 

 

404

Tot Yds

329

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1986 NYG

0

14

7

0

 

21

1996 Car

3

7

3

3

 

16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NYG

Stat

Car

 

 

 

 

18

FD

15

 

 

 

 

41-149

Rush-Yds

17-62

 

 

 

 

236

Pass Yds

236

 

 

 

 

13-25-1

Passes

18-35-2

 

 

 

 

2-15

Sacks

4-29

 

 

 

 

6-44.8

Punt

7-42.1

 

 

 

 

4-27

PR

2-14

 

 

 

 

4-30

Pen

6-43

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

68

Play

56

 

 

 

 

370

Tot Yds

269

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1999 Stl

10

7

7

3

 

27

1984 SF

14

7

0

10

 

31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stl

Stat

SF

 

 

 

 

21

FD

23

 

 

 

 

23-106

Rush-Yds

34-139

 

 

 

 

313

Pass Yds

265

 

 

 

 

27-44-2

Passes

19-29-0

 

 

 

 

1-9

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

4-43.6

Punt

5-43.8

 

 

 

 

2-15

PR

3-34

 

 

 

 

7-65

Pen

4-25

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

0-0

 

 

 

 

68

Play

63

 

 

 

 

410

Tot Yds

404

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2007 NE

17

10

14

0

 

41

1998 Ari

0

0

7

7

 

14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NE

Stat

Ari

 

 

 

 

24

FD

13

 

 

 

 

37-155

Rush-Yds

24-77

 

 

 

 

298

Pass Yds

159

 

 

 

 

25-29-0

Passes

15-29-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-19

 

 

 

 

2-41.0

Punt

7-43.9

 

 

 

 

4-83

PR

1-2

 

 

 

 

5-33

Pen

7-48

 

 

 

 

1-1

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

66

Play

55

 

 

 

 

453

Tot Yds

217

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Min

10

10

0

14

 

34

1998 Atl

6

7

7

0

 

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Min

Stat

Atl

 

 

 

 

19

FD

15

 

 

 

 

31-108

Rush-Yds

39-113

 

 

 

 

255

Pass Yds

155

 

 

 

 

15-29-1

Passes

15-27-0

 

 

 

 

1-9

Sacks

2-15

 

 

 

 

4-43.0

Punt

6-43.3

 

 

 

 

3-44

PR

1-10

 

 

 

 

6-50

Pen

5-30

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

61

Play

68

 

 

 

 

354

Tot Yds

253

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2000 Oak

14

14

14

3

 

45

2007 Hou

0

0

10

7

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oak

Stat

Hou

 

 

 

 

23

FD

10

 

 

 

 

39-161

Rush-Yds

10-33

 

 

 

 

277

Pass Yds

191

 

 

 

 

19-34-0

Passes

16-31-4

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

5-46

 

 

 

 

2-48.5

Punt

7-40.7

 

 

 

 

4-108

PR

2-29

 

 

 

 

7-57

Pen

5-40

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

73

Play

46

 

 

 

 

438

Tot Yds

178

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2005 Sea

0

7

7

10

 

24

1998 NYJ

3

3

7

0

 

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sea

Stat

NYJ

 

 

 

 

18

FD

19

 

 

 

 

35-142

Rush-Yds

18-74

 

 

 

 

194

Pass Yds

247

 

 

 

 

16-27-1

Passes

19-36-3

 

 

 

 

1-8

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

5-40.6

Punt

6-43.5

 

 

 

 

2-11

PR

3-23

 

 

 

 

8-66

Pen

6-48

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

63

Play

55

 

 

 

 

328

Tot Yds

314

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Den

7

0

14

7

 

28

1990 Buf

7

0

0

7

 

14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Den

Stat

Buf

 

 

 

 

18

FD

17

 

 

 

 

29-153

Rush-Yds

19-58

 

 

 

 

172

Pass Yds

313

 

 

 

 

15-25-1

Passes

24-45-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

3-17

 

 

 

 

4-51.3

Punt

5-46.2

 

 

 

 

3-47

PR

2-19

 

 

 

 

6-42

Pen

5-51

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

54

Play

67

 

 

 

 

325

Tot Yds

354

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2002 TB

9

3

7

0

 

19

2006 SD

7

3

3

7

 

20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TB

Stat

SD

 

 

 

 

16

FD

19

 

 

 

 

28-96

Rush-Yds

35-208

 

 

 

 

211

Pass Yds

169

 

 

 

 

18-32-2

Passes

14-26-1

 

 

 

 

2-15

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

7-42.7

Punt

5-43.0

 

 

 

 

2-3

PR

5-45

 

 

 

 

7-52

Pen

5-38

 

 

 

 

1-1

Fum

2-0

 

 

 

 

62

Play

62

 

 

 

 

292

Tot Yds

370

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1985 Chi

10

0

3

8

 

21

1996 GB

0

3

7

14

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chi

Stat

GB

 

 

 

 

15

FD

19

 

 

 

 

33-141

Rush-Yds

18-51

 

 

 

 

132

Pass Yds

442

 

 

 

 

11-19-1

Passes

26-43-2

 

 

 

 

2-19

Sacks

1-8

 

 

 

 

6-41.7

Punt

2-44.0

 

 

 

 

1-7

PR

4-53

 

 

 

 

9-88

Pen

5-43

 

 

 

 

2-0

Fum

3-2

 

 

 

 

54

Play

62

 

 

 

 

254

Tot Yds

485

 

 

 

Standings after 15 games:

Pro Football Computer Simulation League

National Football Conference

East Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1991 Washington Redskins

9

6

0

303

232

102.5

1992 Dallas Cowboys

9

6

0

307

304

99.4

1986 New York Giants

8

7

0

249

211

101.0

2004 Philadelphia Eagles

5

10

0

256

284

97.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1996 Green Bay Packers

11

4

0

447

245

115.2

1998 Minnesota Vikings

11

4

0

435

297

111.7

1985 Chicago Bears

11

4

0

317

218

108.9

1991 Detroit Lions

3

12

0

263

406

94.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8

7

0

287

263

102.2

1998 Atlanta Falcons

8

7

0

287

363

96.9

1987 New Orleans Saints

6

9

0

293

299

101.2

1996 Carolina Panthers

6

9

0

300

361

96.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1999 St. Louis Rams

11

4

0

454

346

105.4

1984 San Francisco 49ers

9

6

0

394

306

103.7

2005 Seattle Seahawks

6

9

0

284

395

93.1

1998 Arizona Cardinals

2

13

0

205

448

84.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

American Football Conference

East Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2007 New England Patriots

10

5

0

492

343

108.0

1990 Buffalo Bills

7

8

0

398

359

101.1

1984 Miami Dolphins

7

8

0

439

477

96.7

1998 New York Jets

7

8

0

309

371

96.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2000 Baltimore Ravens

12

3

0

210

196

98.7

1981 Cincinnati Bengals

8

7

0

297

289

97.9

1987 Cleveland Browns

4

11

0

243

359

91.8

2005 Pittsburgh Steelers

2

13

0

210

299

93.5

           

 

South Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2000 Tennessee Titans

13

2

0

346

162

111.2

2005 Indianapolis Colts

8

7

0

377

366

102.3

1999 Jacksonville Jaguars

5

10

0

272

339

97.6

2007 Houston Texans

4

11

0

301

443

92.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1998 Denver Broncos

11

4

0

444

307

107.2

2006 San Diego Chargers

10

5

0

363

311

102.6

2000 Oakland Raiders

6

9

0

328

357

97.5

2003 Kansas City Chiefs

3

12

0

327

492

90.4

December 18, 2008

PiRate Ratings Week 16 NFL Previews: December 18-22, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 16

A Preview Of The Conference Championship Games?

 

What a coincidence!  The Steelers go to Nashville, and the Panthers go to the Meadowlands in what could very well be a preview of the AFC and NFC Championship games.  Personally, I don’t think we will see either of these games replayed in the same venues in four weeks.

 

There are several other key games this week.  Indianapolis can clinch the number five playoff spot in the AFC if they defeat Jacksonville.  Baltimore and Dallas hook up in an important Saturday night game.  The loser of this game might need help in week 17. 

 

Miami faces a possible trap game at Kansas City, where the temperature is going to be well below freezing. 

 

Philadelphia and Washington play an eliminator game, where the loser can hang it up for the season. 

 

Arizona has a tough date at New England, where the Patriots are almost in a must-win situation. 

 

Atlanta and Minnesota play in the Fox second game, and the winner will be in great shape, while the loser is in trouble (especially if Chicago wins Monday night). 

 

The Jets must travel to the West Coast for the fourth time this season.  They are 0-3 so far. 

 

Denver can secure the AFC West with a win over swooning Buffalo or a San Diego loss at Tampa Bay.  The Bucs need to win against the Chargers. 

 

On Monday night, the Bears may be playing for a chance to knot the NFC North, or they could already be eliminated depending on what happens in Minneapolis.

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

Current NFL Standings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

11

3

0

374

246

108.62

107.01

106.50

2

Dallas

9

5

0

332

288

102.95

103.96

105.36

2

Philadelphia

8

5

1

369

273

107.60

106.03

106.70

2

Washington

7

7

0

231

266

97.77

98.22

98.97

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Minnesota

9

5

0

342

290

105.12

105.24

106.65

2

Chicago

8

6

0

331

302

103.12

101.77

101.95

2

Green Bay

5

9

0

371

339

104.35

101.02

97.85

2

Detroit

0

14

0

240

444

88.47

89.81

88.23

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Carolina

11

3

0

353

264

106.47

105.55

107.58

2

Tampa Bay

9

5

0

313

251

105.19

103.84

105.78

2

Atlanta

9

5

0

336

281

104.71

103.45

103.21

2

New Orleans

7

7

0

390

353

103.29

102.62

100.96

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Arizona

8

6

0

386

358

100.03

99.65

100.31

3

San Francisco

5

9

0

295

341

94.85

96.51

96.25

3

Seattle

3

11

0

260

355

91.65

93.14

92.53

3

St. Louis

2

12

0

189

417

83.33

87.70

84.98

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

9

5

0

385

319

101.06

100.30

102.45

2

New England

9

5

0

350

302

100.33

101.54

102.55

2

Miami

9

5

0

283

269

98.18

99.21

101.65

2

Buffalo

6

8

0

306

306

96.18

95.64

95.74

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Pittsburgh

11

3

0

302

192

109.24

108.44

108.71

2

Baltimore

9

5

0

325

213

108.79

107.24

107.78

3

Cleveland

4

10

0

232

305

96.76

96.59

94.25

2

Cincinnati

2

11

1

174

358

91.41

92.93

91.84

2

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Tennessee

12

2

0

344

197

109.87

107.77

108.10

2

Indianapolis

10

4

0

323

274

104.76

104.55

106.44

2

Houston

7

7

0

319

343

100.27

101.56

101.34

3

Jacksonville

5

9

0

271

309

98.34

97.85

96.61

3

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Denver

8

6

0

326

366

95.50

97.62

99.00

2

San Diego

6

8

0

346

302

101.75

100.18

99.56

2

Oakland

3

11

0

205

348

89.46

90.76

89.22

2

Kansas City

2

12

0

254

386

90.65

92.31

90.97

2

 

If The Playoffs Started Today

 

NFC 1st Round

#6 Tampa Bay at #3 Minnesota

#5 Dallas at #4 Arizona

 

#1 New York Giants would host lower surviving seed

#2 Carolina would host higher surviving seed

 

Still Alive

Atlanta 9-5-0, Philadelphia 8-5-1, Chicago 8-6-0, Washington 7-7-0

 

AFC 1st Round

#6 Baltimore at #3 New York Jets

#5 Indianapolis at #4 Denver

 

#1 Tennessee would host lower surviving seed

#2 Pittsburgh would host higher surviving seed

 

Still Alive

Miami 9-5-0 leads New England 9-5-0

San Diego would beat out Denver if both finished 8-8-0

 

Note: due to the Thursday game, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday 12 Noon EST

 

You will now see multiple numbers given in the Vegas line and Ov/Un.  I am listing the range given by the different books in Vegas and offshore as of 12 Noon EST Wednesday, so you can use the one that best meets your needs.  Remember though, if you use parlays and teasers, you must use the same source.  You cannot play a parlay using the odds from different books.  What you will see in my “imaginary picks” below will show different books, but each teaser will be composed of games from the same book.  When I believe it is okay to play different spreads of the same game, I have put those numbers in parentheses.  If you don’t see different choices, then I only recommend that single spread for that game.

 

I leave it to you to find out the book in question.  Generally, some of the big ones in Vegas are: Hilton, Caesar’s-Harrah’s, MGM Mirage, Stations, Leroy’s, Wynn, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, and The Palms.  Some of the large offshore books include: BetUs, Bodog, Sportsbook, BetJamaica, and Pinnacle.

 

Average Simulation Scores for each game are now rounded to nearest whole number.

 

NFL Previews-Week 16

 

Indianapolis (10-4-0) at Jacksonville (5-9-0)

Time:           8:15 PM EST, Thursday

TV:               NFL Network

Forecast:     Clear, light wind, temperature falling from the upper to mid 60’s

 

PiRate:                Indianapolis by 3                  

Mean:                  Indianapolis by 4

Bias:                    Indianapolis by 7

 

Vegas:               Indianapolis by 6, 6.5, 7

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Indianapolis 79  Jacksonville 21

Avg Sim Score:  Indianapolis 27  Jacksonville 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Indianapolis 38  Jacksonville 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jacksonville 27 Indianapolis 17

 

Strategy:     Over 44, Indianapolis +4 in 10-point teaser, Indianapolis +7 in 13-point teaser, Indianapolis -250, Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser

 

Indianapolis has something to play for in this game as well as some revenge for a nasty loss in September.  Jacksonville will finish in last place in the division after being picked to win it by many pundits.

 

The Colts have won seven games straight after losing at Tennessee to fall to 3-4.  It is my belief that they will win this game and win next week against Tennessee to finish in a tie for first in the division (Titans hold the tiebreaker edge).

 

By winning this game, Indianapolis will sew up the #5 seed in the AFC Playoffs, and that means playing at Denver (San Diego) rather than the AFC East Champion.  I think they will be ready to play, and it will lead to a touchdown or more victory.  Then, watch out for Peyton Manning in the playoffs.

 

 

Baltimore (9-5-0) at Dallas (9-5-0)

Time:           8:15 PM EST, Saturday

TV:               NFL

Forecast:     Thunderstorms possible, then clearing as a cold front moves through, moderate wins, temperature at kickoff in the low to mid 60’s but dropping rapidly to the low 40’s

 

PiRate:                Baltimore by 4

Mean:                  Baltimore by 1

Bias:                    Tossup

 

Vegas:               Dallas by 4, 4.5, 5   

Ov/Un:               39, 39.5, 40

 

100 Sims:           Dallas 52  Baltimore 48

Avg Sim Score:  Dallas 19  Baltimore 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Dallas 21  Baltimore 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Baltimore 20  Dallas 10

 

Strategy:     Baltimore +15 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +18 in 13-point teaser, Under 53 in 13-point teaser

 

This could be the last game ever played in Texas Stadium, as the Cowboys could only host the NFC Championship if they finish as the higher-seeded wildcard team and they play the lower-seeded wildcard team.

 

Both teams played critical games last week and should enter this game at less than full strength, if only psychologically.  Baltimore should be ready to rebound.  I am not sure about the Dallas players.  Combine the dissension with the probable bounce from beating the Giants, and I think they could play below expectations this week.

 

I believe Baltimore has the better chance of winning, but I will play it close to the vest and select the Ravens in the teasers.  While I would normally tease the Over for a primetime game, I am guessing that the Ravens’ anger will benefit their defense and not their offense.  I am looking for a 17-13 Baltimore win.  Ray Lewis is mad, and that’s worth four points.

 

 

New Orleans (7-7-0) at Detroit (0-14-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                New Orleans by 12

Mean:                  New Orleans by 10

Bias:                    New Orleans by 10

 

Vegas:               New Orleans by 6.5, 7, 7.5   

Ov/Un:               50, 50.5, 51, 51.5

 

100 Sims:           New Orleans 87  Detroit 13

Avg Sim Score:  New Orleans 36  Detroit 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  New Orleans 55  Detroit 20

Outlier 1b Sim:  Detroit 34  New Orleans 27

 

Strategy:     Detroit +7½, Detroit +17½ in 10-point teaser, Detroit +20½ in 13-point teaser 

 

Detroit has two weeks left to avoid a history-making season they definitely do not want to have.  They will be playing these last two games like they are playoff games.  I think this may be their better shot.

 

New Orleans was eliminated from the playoff hunt last week, and they have nothing to play for.  Reggie Bush may not play in this game, and you beat the Lions by running the ball down their throats.

 

New Orleans’ defense is just weak enough for Dan Orlovsky to pass for 200 yards.  I don’t know if it will be enough to win, but I think the Lions can beat the spread, even if they give up 400 passing yard to Drew Brees.

 

 

Cincinnati (2-11-1) at Cleveland (4-10-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Snow, strong wind, temperature in the mid to upper 30’s

 

PiRate:                Cleveland by 7

Mean:                  Cleveland by 6

Bias:                    Cleveland by 4

 

Vegas:               Cleveland by 2.5, 3        

Ov/Un:               33.5, 34, 34.5

 

100 Sims:           Cleveland 63 Cincinnati 37

Avg Sim Score:  Cleveland 23 Cincinnati 19

Outlier 1a Sim:  Cleveland 40 Cincinnati 21

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cincinnati 28 Cleveland 14

 

Strategy:     Over 23½ in 10-point teaser, Over 20½ in 13-point teaser      

 

This is strictly a strategy pick here.  I think the average NFL team could put their defensive players on offense and have a good chance of scoring 20 points against the Bengals.  I think the Bengals have a 65% chance of scoring 20 points against the Browns.  The weather is the only negative intangible.  If it is really windy with blowing snow, it could hold the score down.  Still, I have to believe that a 14-10 final is about as low as the scoring could be in this one.  The actual attendance for this game might rival the attendance for the Humanitarian Bowl in a couple weeks.

 

Miami (9-5-0) at Kansas City (2-12-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, strong wind, temperature in the upper teens

 

PiRate:                Miami by 6

Mean:                  Miami by 5

Bias:                    Miami by 9

 

Vegas:                Miami by 3.5, 4

Ov/Un:               39.5, 40

 

100 Sims:           Miami 83  Kansas City 17

Avg Sim Score:  Miami 23  Kansas City 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Miami 27  Kansas City 10

Outlier 1b Sim:  Kansas City 21 Miami 16 (4 others ended in 5-point wins)

 

Strategy:     Kansas City +14 in 10-point teaser, Kansas City +17 in 13-point teaser, Under 53 in 13-point teaser

 

Again, this game is another strategy pick game.  The Dolphins cannot prepare for 15-degree weather and wind chills below zero.  Kansas City seems to be the champion of losing close games.  Six of their losses have been by a touchdown or less.

 

Miami’s offense has been sputtering the last month or so, and I think the reason for it is that defenses have figured out how to play the single wing package.  The Dolphins’ defense should still control the Chiefs’ offense for most of the day, and I look for a final score of about 17-10 in favor of Tony Sparano’s Fish.

 

 

Pittsburgh (11-3-0) at Tennessee (12-2-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Chance of light rain, strong wind, temperature in the upper 40’s

 

PiRate:                Tennessee by 3

Mean:                  Tennessee by 1

Bias:                    Tennessee by 1

 

Vegas:               Pk, Pittsburgh by 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5  

Ov/Un:               34.5, 35

 

100 Sims:           Pittsburgh 61  Tennessee 39

Avg Sim Score:  Pittsburgh 19  Tennessee 15

Outlier 1a Sim:  Pittsburgh 24  Tennessee 10

Outlier 1b Sim:  Tennessee 16  Pittsburgh 7

 

Strategy:     Pittsburgh Pk, Pittsburgh +10 in 10-point teaser, Pittsburgh +13 in 13-point teaser, Over 24½ in 10-point teaser, Over 21½ in 13-point teaser, Pittsburgh -130 

The winner of this game will have control over home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.  The Titans seemed to have it clinched a few weeks ago when they held a three-game lead over the field.  After losses to the Jets and Texans and with Pittsburgh on a five-game winning streak, it sets up this big game.

 

The Steelers come into this game rather healthy for Week 17.  The Titans are hurting big time.  Both Kyle Vanden Bosch and Albert Haynesworth are finished for the regular season, and the Titans cannot rely on greybeard Jevon Kearse to be his old freakish self. 

 

Neither team strikes fear in opponents with their offenses, but Ben Roethlisberger is considerably better than Kerry Collins, and the Steelers’ receiving corps is much better than that of the Titans.

 

I believe the Steelers will outmuscle the Titans in the trenches and win an ugly game that leaves both teams in even worse shape as the final week approaches.  It is highly possible Tennessee will limp into the playoffs with a three-game losing streak, while Pittsburgh enjoys a seven-game winning streak with home field advantage theirs.

 

 

Philadelphia (8-5-1) at Washington (7-7-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Rain, freezing rain, and sleet, light wind, temperature falling through the 30’s

 

PiRate:                Philadelphia by 8

Mean:                  Philadelphia by 6

Bias:                    Philadelphia by 6

 

Vegas:               Philadelphia by 4.5, 5, 5.5

Ov/Un:               39, 39.5

 

100 Sims:           Philadelphia 60  Washington 40

Avg Sim Score:  Philadelphia 26  Washington 20

Outlier 1a Sim:  Philadelphia 38  Washington 16

Outlier 1b Sim:  Washington 24  Philadelphia 13

 

Strategy:     Philadelphia -4½, Philadelphia -215, Philadelphia +5½ in 10-point teaser, Philadelphia +8½ in 13-point teaser, Over 26 in 13-point teaser

Since Thanksgiving, the Eagles have played the best ball of all the NFC teams, while the Redskins performance has been no better than St. Louis or Detroit.

 

Both teams technically still have a chance to reach the playoffs, but Washington’s chances are about the same as one of their players winning the mega millions lottery.

 

Philadelphia has some amends to make up for after losing by six to the Redskins in early October.  At the time, the Eagles were in a funk while Washington was coming up with a way to win every week.  Expect a completely different game this week.  I’m looking for Philadelphia to win by five or more points and wouldn’t be surprised if that “more” was something like 10-17 points, as I am looking for Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook to shine.  

 

 

San Francisco (5-9-0) at St. Louis (2-12-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                San Francisco by 10

Mean:                 San Francisco by 7

Bias:                    San Francisco by 9

 

Vegas:                San Francisco by 5, 5.5

Ov/Un:               43, 43.5, 44

 

100 Sims:           San Francisco 68  St. Louis 32

Avg Sim Score:  San Francisco 25  St. Louis 17

Outlier 1a Sim:  San Francisco 35  St. Louis 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  St. Louis 17  San Francisco 12

 

Strategy:     Under 57 in 13-point teaser

Since that crazy 34-14 upset over Dallas, St. Louis has averaged just 11.6 points per game in their last eight games.  Since Mike Singletary took over as coach, the 49ers have yielded just 18.5 points per game (10.3 in their last 3).  That doesn’t bode well for the Rams’ offense.  I would be shocked if they reach 17 points in this contest.  San Francisco is no juggernaut on offense, and they could very well score 17 points or less themselves.

 

This game should be close, and I cannot see a scenario where both teams reach 20 points.  The highest score I could see in this would be around 28-17, so I like teasing the Under in this game.

 

 

San Diego (6-8-0) at Tampa Bay (9-5-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 70’s

 

PiRate:                Tampa Bay by 5

Mean:                 Tampa Bay by 6

Bias:                    Tampa Bay by 8

 

Vegas:                Tampa Bay by 3, 3.5      

Ov/Un:               42, 42.5

 

100 Sims:           Tampa Bay 73  San Diego 27

Avg Sim Score:  Tampa Bay 29  San Diego 20

Outlier 1a Sim:  Tampa Bay 34  San Diego 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  San Diego 31  Tampa Bay 24

 

Strategy:     Over 32 in 10-point teaser, Over 29 in 13-point teaser

San Diego is so unpredictable, while Tampa Bay has been out of sync the last couple of weeks.  I won’t begin to try to figure out which team will win this “must win” game, but I will surmise that both teams will top 17 points in this strategy play.  I am hesitant to pick the Buccaneers to win at home, as they have been struggling to put together a total effort in the last month. 

 

San Diego has been involved in nine close games, in which the Chargers have gone just 2-7.  They play about the same on the road as they do at home.  It wouldn’t be much of an upset if they won this game, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they found a way to lose another close one.

 

 

Arizona (8-6-0) at New England (9-5-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Light snow, moderate wind, temperature in the low 30’s

 

PiRate:                New England by 2

Mean:                  New England by 4

Bias:                    New England by 4

 

Vegas:               New England by 7.5, 8, 9

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           New England 57  Arizona 43

Avg Sim Score:  New England 29  Arizona 27

Outlier 1a Sim:  New England 41  Arizona 24

Outlier 1b Sim:  Arizona 45  New England 28

 

Strategy:     New England +2½ in 10-point teaser, New England +5½ in 13-point teaser, New England -335, Over 34 in 10-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser 

Arizona can do nothing to change its playoff destination.  The Cardinals will host an opening round game in the playoffs whether they finish 10-6, 9-7, or 8-8.  Yes, they could be the number three or number four seed, but it really won’t make much difference.

 

New England is still very much on the playoff bubble.  At 9-5-0, they are the eighth team in the AFC, and only six teams make the playoffs.  This game is much more important to them than it is to the Cardinals.  The snow and cold weather should help them a bit in this game.

 

Arizona is just 4-4 since their bye week.  The Cardinals have been struggling against the good teams and have fattened up on the weak teams.  Against teams with a losing record, they are 6-0.  In their last eight games against teams either in the playoffs or in the hunt for a playoff spot, they have given up 38 points per game.

 

New England is a Jekyll and Hyde team.  They have two typical offensive outputs.  Either they struggle offensively and lose 24-13 or they move the ball like they did most of last year and win 45-21.  I can see no reason not to believe that this will be one of those weeks where the Patriots have little trouble advancing the pigskin, even in inclement weather. 

 

Kurt Warner may pass for 300-350 yards, but I don’t see the Cardinals matching the Pats point for point.  I’ll go with Matt Cassel and crew to win 31-21 or thereabouts.

 

 

Houston (7-7-0) at Oakland (3-11-0)

Time:           4:05PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Mostly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 40’s

 

PiRate:                Houston by 9

Mean:                 Houston by 9

Bias:                   Houston by 10

 

Vegas:               Houston by 7, 7.5, 8      

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Houston 77  Oakland 23

Avg Sim Score:  Houston 26  Oakland 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Houston 33  Oakland 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Oakland 27  Houston 23

 

Strategy:     Houston +3 in 10-point teaser, Houston +6 in 13-point teaser

Houston could easily be in the playoff mix this season if it weren’t for all the troubles the team endured at the beginning of the season due to the hurricane.  Two close losses to Indianapolis and an overtime loss to Jacksonville keep them from owning a 10-4-0 record.  The Texans have won four in a row, and they can see a winning record in their future.  They must win this game and then beat the Bears at Reliant Stadium next week to clinch their first ever winning season.

 

Oakland would just like for this season to end.  When they lost at home to the Chiefs, the Raider defense seemed to have folded up the tent for the season.

 

I think Houston could win this game in a blowout, but the Texans are coming off an emotional high after defeating Tennessee.  So, I must caution you to be conservative in this one and consider the possibility that Houston could be a little flat this week.  They may have a hard time just winning by any amount, so go with them in the teasers.

 

 

New York Jets (9-5-0) at Seattle (3-11-0)

Time:           4:05 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Snow, light wind, temperature in the upper 20’s

 

PiRate:                Jets by 7

Mean:                 Jets by 4

Bias:                   Jets by 7

 

Vegas:                Jets by 4.5, 5, 6

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Jets 64  Seattle 36

Avg Sim Score:  Jets 32  Seattle 26

Outlier 1a Sim:  Jets 48  Seattle 21

Outlier 1b Sim:  Seattle 30  Jets 24 ot (largest spread)

 

Strategy:     Seattle +16 in 10-point teaser, Seattle +19 in 13-point teaser, Under 57½ in 13-point teaser

This will be Mike Holmgren’s last home game as coach of the Seahawks, and look who will be the opposing quarterback-the guy who wears the same Super Bowl ring he wears.

 

The Jets have made three other trips to the West Coast this year.  They lost at San Diego 48-29, at Oakland 16-13 in OT, and at San Francisco 24-14.  Seattle is no worse than Oakland and split with San Francisco, so they should have a decent chance to win this one.

 

The Jets control their own destiny.  If they win this game and then beat the Dolphins next week, they are the AFC East Champions.  If they lose this week, then they will need a New England loss and a win over Miami to get into the playoffs.

 

Brett Favre usually finds a way to win this type of game.  I think the Jets realize they are unlikely to make the playoffs if they lose.  However, I don’t expect them to win by double digits.  They will be happy to win by a field goal, so I like the home team in the teasers.

 

 

Buffalo (6-8-0) at Denver (8-6-0)

Time:           4:05 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 20’s

 

PiRate:                Denver by 1

Mean:                 Denver by 4

Bias:                   Denver by 5

 

Vegas:                Denver by 6.5, 7, 7.5   

Ov/Un:               43.5, 44

 

100 Sims:           Denver 55  Buffalo 45

Avg Sim Score:  Denver 30  Buffalo 27

Outlier 1a Sim:  Denver 41  Buffalo 23

Outlier 1b Sim:  Buffalo 28  Denver 17

 

Strategy:       Denver +3½ in 10-point teaser, Denver +6½ in 13-point teaser, Over 30½ in 13-point teaser

Two months ago, the Bills were 4-0 and the darlings of the NFL media world.  Coach Dick Jauron was a genius.  10 years go, Mike Shanahan was a genius.  Now, those same pundits believe neither coach could properly lead their teams out of paper bags.

 

The truth of the matter is that both of these teams have glaring holes on the defensive side of the ball, and both of these teams have been hurt by injuries on the attack side.

 

Trent Edwards will return to the lineup for Buffalo, and the Bills’ offense should rebound with a stellar effort.  Buffalo should top 21 points in this game.

 

Jay Cutler will go over 4,000 total passing yards in this game, as I expect him to top 275 yards against the Bills’ secondary.  Denver should top 24 points. 

 

The Broncos will win the AFC West without any help from Tampa Bay this week.  Look for the home team to win by five to eight points.    

 

 

Atlanta (9-5-0) at Minnesota (9-5-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Minnesota by 2

Mean:                  Minnesota by 4

Bias:                    Minnesota by 5

 

Vegas:               Minnesota by 3, 3.5

Ov/Un:               43, 43.5, 44, 44.5

 

100 Sims:           Minnesota 52  Atlanta 48

Avg Sim Score:  Minnesota 24  Atlanta 24

Outlier 1a Sim:  Minnesota 28  Atlanta 16

Outlier 1b Sim:  Atlanta 23  Minnesota 13

 

Strategy:     Minnesota +7 in 10-point teaser, Minnesota +10 in 13-point teaser, Over 30 in 13-point teaser

This is going to be a great game, and most of the nation will get to see it.  The Vikings will clinch the old black and blue division if they win, whereas the Falcons will likely move into the number six position in the playoff field if they win. 

 

Look at Minnesota’s resume since September.  The purple people eaters have won eight of their last 10 games.  The two losses have come on the road by seven and six points.  Gus Frerotte came off the bench to start the turnaround, but Tarvaris Jackson looked like an All-pro last week against Arizona.

 

Atlanta is a tough team in 2008.  They play like the Bears of the 1960’s and 1980’s.  Michael Turner should top the 1,500 yard rushing barrier some time during this game, and he should match Adrian Peterson yard for yard, even against the Vikings’ tough run defense.

 

The difference in this game could be Bernard Berrian.  He can take a simple pass reception and turn it into a 40 yard gain.  The Falcon secondary will have to play a little more loose to prevent Berrian from breaking a long one.  That should give Peterson just enough extra edge to have a five to six yards per carry average.  I’ll take the Vikings in a close one in the neighborhood of 24-21.

 

Carolina (11-3-0) at New York Giants (11-3-0)  

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Rain, sleet, and snow, moderate wind, temperature falling from the mid 30’s to the mid 20’s

                    

PiRate:                Giants by 4

Mean:                  Giants by 3

Bias:                    Giants by 1

 

Vegas:               Giants by 3, 3.5

Ov/Un:               37.5, 38, 38.5, 39

 

100 Sims:           Giants 51 Carolina 48 1 Tie (8 OT games)

Avg Sim Score:  Carolina 20  Giants 19

Outlier 1a Sim:  Carolina 24  Giants 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Giants 21  Carolina 12

 

Strategy:     Carolina +13½ in 10-point teaser, Carolina +16½ in 13-point teaser, Over 24½ in 13-point teaser

Carolina has its offense in gear, averaging 32.4 points in their last five games.  The Giants have played more like the Rams since the Plaxico Burress shooting incident.  Now, Brandon Jacobs is hurting, and even though it looks like he will play, don’t expect him to rush for 70 yards Sunday night.

 

Carolina has been quite fortunate to this point of the season.  Their defense has stayed healthy all season with nary a start being missed.  That could change this week as defensive tackle Maake Kemoeatu could miss this game with a tweaked ankle.

 

To the winner will more than likely go home field advantage for the playoffs.  I believe Carolina will pass the ball a little more than they normally do to set up the running game with their dynamic duo of James Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.  Jake Delhomme should pass for 200 yards, and the Panthers will win by about a field goal to a touchdown.

 

 

Green Bay (5-9-0) at Chicago (8-6-0)

Time:           8:30PM EST Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Cloudy, moderate wind, temperature holding steady in the mid teens

 

PiRate:                Chicago by 1

Mean:                  Chicago by 3

Bias:                    Chicago by 6

 

Vegas:                Chicago by 4, 4.5

Ov/Un:               41.5, 42

 

100 Sims:           Chicago 89  Green Bay 11

Avg Sim Score:  Chicago 29  Green Bay 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Chicago 37  Green Bay 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  Green Bay 32  Chicago 27

 

Strategy:     Chicago -4, Chicago -195, Chicago +6 in 10-point teaser, Chicago +9 in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 10-point teaser, Over 28½ in 13-point teaser

This is a tough game to analyze due to major intangible factors that won’t be known until Sunday evening.  If Minnesota beats Atlanta, then the Bears could be eliminated from the playoffs.  They will be eliminated from the NFC North race, and they will have only a tiny chance of gaining a wildcard spot.

 

Green Bay’s defense has gone south too many times this year, and that’s why the Packers are going to lose more than they win.  The offense hasn’t been as powerful since the first game against the Bears, and this game could see a near reversal of that one-but only if the Bears really have something to play for.

 

Regardless of the outcome in Minneapolis, I see Chicago winning this game by stopping the Green Bay offense and scoring just enough to be comfortably ahead as the fourth quarter starts.  Call it a 27-14 win on the Midway, as Kyle Orton passes for 250 yards against Aaron Rodgers’ 200 and a pick or two.

 

 

 A Bad Week Follow A Good Week

 

I made a mistake last week when I posted my picks for the week, and it wound up costing me two games.  Thus, I finished 1-4 when I should have gone 3-2.  Mistakes count, whether here or at a betting window, so I have to live with the consequences.  It made me quite upset when I realized it Sunday morning.

 

For the season, the record against the spread is now 95-79-7, which computes to 54.6%. 

 

I am going with a variety of picks this week, but I am not overly thrilled with the choices.  In past years, I have been more excited about the end of the season games than the early part of the schedule.  This year, I am finding it harder and harder to identify excellent plays as the season comes to the end.

 

Here are my wagers for week 17 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):

 

1. Indianapolis & Jacksonville Over 44

 

2. Pittsburgh Pk vs. Tennessee

 

3. Philadelphia -4½ vs. Washington

 

4. Chicago -4 vs. Green Bay

 

5. Indianapolis -250 vs. Jacksonville

 

6. Philadelphia -215 vs. Washington

 

7. New England -335 vs. Arizona

 

8. Chicago -195 vs. Green Bay

 

9. 10-point teaser

Indianapolis +4 vs. Jacksonville

Indianapolis & Jacksonville Over 34

Baltimore +15 vs. Dallas

 

10. 10-point teaser

Detroit +17½ vs. New Orleans

Cincinnati & Cleveland Over 23½

Kansas City +14 vs. Miami

 

11. 10-point teaser

Pittsburgh +10 vs. Tennessee

Philadelphia +5½ vs. Washington

San Diego & Tampa Bay Over 32

 

12. 10-point teaser

New England +2½ vs. Arizona

New England & Arizona Over 34

Houston +3 vs. Oakland

 

13. 10-point teaser

Seattle +16 vs. New York Jets

Denver +3½ vs. Buffalo

Minnesota +7 vs. Atlanta

 

14. 10-point teaser

Carolina +13½ vs. New York Giants

Chicago +6 vs. Green Bay

Chicago & Green Bay Over 31½

 

15. 13-point teaser

Baltimore +18 vs. Dallas

Kansas City +17 vs. Miami

Pittsburgh +13 vs. Tennessee

Philadelphia +8½ vs. Washington

 

16. 13-point teaser

San Francisco & St. Louis Under 57

New England +5½ vs. Arizona

New England & Arizona Over 31

Houston +6 vs. Oakland

 

17. 13-point teaser

Seattle +19 vs. New York Jets

Minnesota +10 vs. Atlanta

Carolina +16½ vs. New York Giants

Chicago +9 vs. Green Bay

   

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

December 15, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation For Week 15: December 15, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation Week 15-December 15, 2008

 

The simulation for Week 15 has just been completed, and there were a couple of interesting games of note.  The rematch of Super Bowl 19 took place in Miami where the 1984 Dolphins knocked the 1984 49ers out of playoff contention, giving the 1999 Rams the NFC West title.  With the win, the Dolphins moved to within just one game of the playoff bubble, as four teams are tied at 7-7 in the AFC and 7-7 is the second best record of potential AFC Wildcard teams.

 

The big upset took place in Oakland.  The 2000 Raiders beat the 2007 Patriots.

 

Here are the results from this week’s simulation:

 

1985 Chicago

24

1987 New Orleans

13

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1985 Chi

7

10

0

7

 

24

1987 NO

3

7

0

3

 

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chi

Stat

NO

 

 

 

 

18

FD

12

 

 

 

 

43-177

Rush-Yds

25-57

 

 

 

 

154

Pass Yds

169

 

 

 

 

13-24-0

Passes

14-27-2

 

 

 

 

1-6

Sacks

3-20

 

 

 

 

6-44.0

Punt

7-42.4

 

 

 

 

3-56

PR

2-11

 

 

 

 

7-55

Pen

5-49

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

68

Play

55

 

 

 

 

325

Tot Yds

206

 

 

                     

The Bears scored 10 points off the two interceptions thrown by Bobby Hebert, and Walter Payton rushed for 129 yards and a score.

 

1981 Cincinnati

30

1991 Washington

17

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1981 Cin

10

14

3

3

 

30

1991 Was

7

3

7

0

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cin

Stat

Was

 

 

 

 

23

FD

16

 

 

 

 

41-197

Rush-Yds

19-84

 

 

 

 

231

Pass Yds

208

 

 

 

 

18-29-0

Passes

17-30-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

3-19

 

 

 

 

4-39.8

Punt

6-40.3

 

 

 

 

2-5

PR

1-7

 

 

 

 

3-15

Pen

8-80

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

70

Play

52

 

 

 

 

428

Tot Yds

273

 

 

                     

Ken Anderson threw three touchdown passes in the first half and Pete Johnson rushed for 132 yards as the Bengals moved into playoff contention.  With the loss, the Redskins fell from first place in the NFC East.

 

1998 Atlanta

27

2002 Tampa Bay

17

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Atl

0

6

14

7

 

27

2002 TB

10

0

7

0

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Atl

Stat

TB

 

 

 

 

19

FD

17

 

 

 

 

34-168

Rush-Yds

34-121

 

 

 

 

182

Pass Yds

224

 

 

 

 

15-25-0

Passes

19-29-1

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

6-42.5

Punt

7-41.9

 

 

 

 

4-58

PR

2-19

 

 

 

 

4-30

Pen

6-55

 

 

 

 

2-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

59

Play

64

 

 

 

 

350

Tot Yds

338

 

 

                     

Jamal Anderson’s two third quarter touchdown runs (17 & 11 yards) brought the Falcons back after Tampa Bay had taken a 17-6 lead.  The two teams are now tied for the lead in the NFC South, with Tampa Bay holding a slim tiebreaker advantage.

 

2000 Tennessee

23

2007 Houston

14

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2007 Hou

0

7

7

0

 

14

2000 Ten

3

6

7

7

 

23

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hou

Stat

Ten

 

 

 

 

14

FD

19

 

 

 

 

28-77

Rush-Yds

40-208

 

 

 

 

184

Pass Yds

139

 

 

 

 

16-28-1

Passes

11-19-0

 

 

 

 

4-23

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

7-42.3

Punt

5-48.2

 

 

 

 

2-27

PR

3-44

 

 

 

 

8-77

Pen

5-40

 

 

 

 

3-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

60

Play

59

 

 

 

 

238

Tot Yds

347

 

 

                     

Eddie George rushed for 177 yards and two touchdowns and Jevon Kearse recorded two sacks, as the Titans moved closer to securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

 

2005 Indianapolis

38

1991 Detroit

17

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2005 Ind

14

14

3

7

 

38

1991 Det

0

3

7

7

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ind

Stat

Det

 

 

 

 

24

FD

16

 

 

 

 

41-177

Rush-Yds

21-109

 

 

 

 

285

Pass Yds

173

 

 

 

 

19-32-0

Passes

14-27-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

3-20

 

 

 

 

2-42.5

Punt

6-41.7

 

 

 

 

3-23

PR

1-4

 

 

 

 

6-50

Pen

4-30

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

73

Play

51

 

 

 

 

462

Tot Yds

262

 

 

                     

Peyton Manning passed for 3 touchdowns and Edgerrin James rushed for 152 yards and a score, as the Colts moved onto the top side of the Wildcard playoff bubble.

 

2006 San Diego

28

2003 Kansas City

24

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2003 KC

3

7

14

0

 

24

2006 SD

7

7

7

7

 

28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KC

Stat

SD

 

 

 

 

20

FD

18

 

 

 

 

16-71

Rush-Yds

41-189

 

 

 

 

256

Pass Yds

142

 

 

 

 

22-38-1

Passes

12-20-0

 

 

 

 

1-8

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

5-43.6

Punt

6-41.8

 

 

 

 

3-19

PR

4-46

 

 

 

 

5-40

Pen

7-57

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

3-1

 

 

 

 

55

Play

61

 

 

 

 

319

Tot Yds

331

 

 

                     

Phillip Rivers passed for two touchdowns and LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 144 yards and a touchdown, as the Chargers virtually locked up a playoff spot.

 

2000 Baltimore

10

2005 Pittsburgh

6

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2000 Bal

0

3

0

7

 

10

2005 Pit

3

0

3

0

 

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bal

Stat

Pit

 

 

 

 

14

FD

12

 

 

 

 

33-114

Rush-Yds

31-89

 

 

 

 

129

Pass Yds

158

 

 

 

 

11-24-2

Passes

16-28-2

 

 

 

 

2-11

Sacks

3-18

 

 

 

 

6-42.0

Punt

8-40.8

 

 

 

 

3-41

PR

2-16

 

 

 

 

11-110

Pen

6-52

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

59

Play

62

 

 

 

 

232

Tot Yds

229

 

 

                     

Ray Lewis intercepted a Ben Roethlisberger pass and returned it 47 yards for the winning score in the fourth quarter as the Ravens moved closer to gaining a first round bye in the playoffs.

 

1996 Green Bay

34

1999 Jacksonville

13

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1999 Jac

0

3

3

7

 

13

1996 GB

10

14

7

3

 

34

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jac

Stat

GB

 

 

 

 

13

FD

24

 

 

 

 

19-44

Rush-Yds

45-185

 

 

 

 

142

Pass Yds

228

 

 

 

 

13-26-1

Passes

19-29-0

 

 

 

 

1-11

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

8-40.3

Punt

4-44.3

 

 

 

 

1-11

PR

6-82

 

 

 

 

5-39

Pen

4-30

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

46

Play

74

 

 

 

 

175

Tot Yds

413

 

 

                     

The Packers held onto the ball for 38:16 to just 21:44 for the Jaguars, as Brett Favre led the green and gold on four touchdown drives of 10 or more plays.  Jacksonville’s lone touchdown came with just 10 seconds to play in the game.  The loss eliminated the Jaguars from the playoffs.

 

1996 Carolina

28

1998 Denver

27

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1996 Car

0

14

7

7

 

28

1998 Den

7

3

7

10

 

27

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Car

Stat

Den

 

 

 

 

19

FD

20

 

 

 

 

28-107

Rush-Yds

35-147

 

 

 

 

242

Pass Yds

204

 

 

 

 

19-34-1

Passes

17-28-1

 

 

 

 

2-10

Sacks

1-8

 

 

 

 

5-43.0

Punt

5-42.4

 

 

 

 

2-17

PR

3-22

 

 

 

 

5-33

Pen

6-35

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

64

Play

64

 

 

 

 

339

Tot Yds

343

 

 

                     

Anthony Johnson broke loose on a draw play and scored on a 42-yard run to give the Panthers the upset victory after John Elway had put the Broncos ahead on a 4th quarter drive.  The Panthers held onto their slim playoff hopes, while Denver fell one game behind Baltimore for a playoff bye.

 

1998 NY Jets

31

1990 Buffalo

28

ot

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 NYJ

0

14

14

0

3

31

1990 Buf

7

0

7

14

0

28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NYJ

Stat

Buf

 

 

 

 

18

FD

21

 

 

 

 

33-109

Rush-Yds

34-117

 

 

 

 

221

Pass Yds

233

 

 

 

 

19-33-2

Passes

19-34-1

 

 

 

 

3-16

Sacks

5-43

 

 

 

 

7-41.7

Punt

5-42.4

 

 

 

 

2-9

PR

3-41

 

 

 

 

8-65

Pen

4-53

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

69

Play

73

 

 

 

 

314

Tot Yds

307

 

 

                       

Aaron Glenn intercepted a Jim Kelly pass and returned it 17 yards to set up John Hall’s 47 yard field goal with 3:11 to go in overtime, as the Jets moved into a second place tie with the Bills in the AFC East.

 

1984 Miami

42

1984 San Francisco

31

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1984 Mia

14

7

14

7

 

42

1984 SF

10

7

7

7

 

31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mia

Stat

SF

 

 

 

 

25

FD

22

 

 

 

 

19-74

Rush-Yds

35-148

 

 

 

 

403

Pass Yds

277

 

 

 

 

28-44-0

Passes

21-34-1

 

 

 

 

1-6

Sacks

1-6

 

 

 

 

2-53.5

Punt

5-41.6

 

 

 

 

3-14

PR

2-21

 

 

 

 

4-25

Pen

6-48

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

64

Play

70

 

 

 

 

471

Tot Yds

419

 

 

                     

Dan Marino threw four touchdown passes, two each to Mark Duper and Mark Clayton, as the Dolphins eliminated the 49ers from the playoff race and held onto slim hopes of obtaining a wildcard spot themselves.

 

1999 St. Louis

45

2005 Seattle

17

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1999 Stl

21

3

14

7

 

45

2005 Sea

0

7

10

0

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stl

Stat

Sea

 

 

 

 

26

FD

18

 

 

 

 

37-177

Rush-Yds

17-55

 

 

 

 

345

Pass Yds

228

 

 

 

 

23-36-0

Passes

16-29-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-19

 

 

 

 

1-42

Punt

6-43.5

 

 

 

 

3-52

PR

1-7

 

 

 

 

6-44

Pen

5-59

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

73

Play

48

 

 

 

 

522

Tot Yds

264

 

 

                     

Kurt Warner completed touchdown passes to Isaac Bruce, Marshall Faulk, and Az Hakim in the first quarter, as the Rams cruised to the easy win.  Combined with the 49ers loss, St. Louis clinched the NFC West.

 

1998 Minnesota

35

1998 Arizona

10

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1998 Ari

3

7

0

0

 

10

1998 Min

7

7

14

7

 

35

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ari

Stat

Min

 

 

 

 

14

FD

20

 

 

 

 

23-67

Rush-Yds

42-163

 

 

 

 

195

Pass Yds

285

 

 

 

 

13-27-1

Passes

15-26-0

 

 

 

 

4-23

Sacks

0-0

 

 

 

 

7-40.4

Punt

4-39.8

 

 

 

 

0-0

PR

2-21

 

 

 

 

6-55

Pen

4-34

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

54

Play

68

 

 

 

 

239

Tot Yds

448

 

 

                     

Randall Cunningham completed long bombs to Randy Moss (46 yards) and Cris Carter (41 yards) in the third quarter to put a close game out of reach.  Jimmy Hitchcock put the game out of reach with a 44 yard interception return for a touchdown in the final period.

 

2000 Oakland

34

2007 New England

28

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2000 Oak

9

0

18

7

 

34

2007 NE

14

7

0

7

 

28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oak

Stat

NE

 

 

 

 

13

FD

24

 

 

 

 

31-98

Rush-Yds

29-121

 

 

 

 

159

Pass Yds

312

 

 

 

 

14-25-0

Passes

23-39-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

1-9

 

 

 

 

7-46.6

Punt

2-41.0

 

 

 

 

1-68

PR

4-35

 

 

 

 

10-100

Pen

6-46

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

4-3

 

 

 

 

56

Play

69

 

 

 

 

257

Tot Yds

424

 

 

                     

The Raiders took advantage of five New England turnovers and converted them into two touchdowns and three field goals, and the silver and black forced two safeties as well.  New England still led 28-27 after Tom Brady scrambled for a 5 yard touchdown run with 4:08 left to play, but David Dunn returned the following kickoff 67 yards to the Patriots’ 24 yard line.  Rich Gannon completed back-to-back passes to Tim Brown to move the ball to the four, and Tyrone Wheatley scored on the next play.

 

1992 Dallas

20

1986 NY Giants

17

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1992 Dal

3

3

7

7

 

20

1986 NYG

7

0

7

3

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dal

Stat

NYG

 

 

 

 

18

FD

16

 

 

 

 

34-141

Rush-Yds

33-108

 

 

 

 

165

Pass Yds

172

 

 

 

 

14-23-0

Passes

12-24-1

 

 

 

 

1-7

Sacks

1-5

 

 

 

 

6-44.5

Punt

6-37.5

 

 

 

 

2-13

PR

3-24

 

 

 

 

4-30

Pen

5-27

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

58

Play

58

 

 

 

 

299

Tot Yds

275

 

 

                     

 Emmitt Smith broke loose on a 26 yard touchdown run with 3:11 to go in the game, and the Cowboys’ defense held the Giants on downs at midfield to move into first place in the NFC East.

 

2004 Philadelphia

31

1987 Cleveland

21

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2004 Phi

13

0

11

7

 

31

1987 Cle

14

0

7

0

 

21

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Phi

Stat

Cle

 

 

 

 

17

FD

18

 

 

 

 

45-190

Rush-Yds

34-122

 

 

 

 

162

Pass Yds

197

 

 

 

 

15-24-0

Passes

17-27-1

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-15

 

 

 

 

5-41.8

Punt

7-41.3

 

 

 

 

3-17

PR

2-23

 

 

 

 

6-41

Pen

5-40

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

69

Play

63

 

 

 

 

352

Tot Yds

304

 

 

                     

Three different Eagles rushed for more than 50 yards and a touchdown each, as Philadelphia won for just the fifth time this season.  Brian Westbrook rushed for 72 yards on 17 carries, Dorsey Levens rushed for 67 yards on 19 carries, and Donovan McNabb scrambled for 51 yards on nine attempts.

 

Current Standings

Pro Football Computer Simulation League

National Football Conference

East Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1992 Dallas Cowboys

9

5

0

290

284

99.7

1991 Washington Redskins

8

6

0

276

215

102.0

1986 New York Giants

7

7

0

228

195

100.9

2004 Philadelphia Eagles

5

9

0

239

257

97.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1985 Chicago Bears

11

3

0

296

194

109.9

1996 Green Bay Packers

10

4

0

423

224

116.2

1998 Minnesota Vikings

10

4

0

401

277

111.7

1991 Detroit Lions

2

12

0

233

385

94.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

South Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8

6

0

268

243

102.4

1998 Atlanta Falcons

8

6

0

267

329

97.6

1987 New Orleans Saints

6

8

0

272

269

101.8

1996 Carolina Panthers

6

8

0

284

340

97.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1999 St. Louis Rams

11

3

0

427

315

106.2

1984 San Francisco 49ers

8

6

0

363

279

103.8

2005 Seattle Seahawks

5

9

0

260

382

91.9

1998 Arizona Cardinals

2

12

0

191

407

85.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

American Football Conference

East Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2007 New England Patriots

9

5

0

451

329

106.6

1990 Buffalo Bills

7

7

0

384

331

101.9

1998 New York Jets

7

7

0

296

347

96.3

1984 Miami Dolphins

6

8

0

404

453

95.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2000 Baltimore Ravens

11

3

0

190

179

98.5

1981 Cincinnati Bengals

7

7

0

273

273

97.5

1987 Cleveland Browns

4

10

0

227

335

91.9

2005 Pittsburgh Steelers

2

12

0

197

278

93.6

           

 

South Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

2000 Tennessee Titans

12

2

0

325

149

111.7

2005 Indianapolis Colts

7

7

0

346

346

101.8

1999 Jacksonville Jaguars

5

9

0

252

308

98.2

2007 Houston Texans

4

10

0

284

398

93.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Division

Won

Lost

Tie

Pts

Opp

PiRate

1998 Denver Broncos

10

4

0

416

293

106.6

2006 San Diego Chargers

9

5

0

343

292

102.3

2000 Oakland Raiders

5

9

0

287

340

95.6

2003 Kansas City Chiefs

3

11

0

303

457

90.1

 

December 11, 2008

PiRate Ratings Week 15 NFL Previews: December 11-15, 2008

PiRate Ratings For NFL Week 15

And Down The Stretch They Come!

 

There’s just a furlong to go in the NFL regular season, and most of the playoff spots are still to be decided.

 

If the season ended today in the NFC, the Giants and Panthers would get first round byes, with the Cardinals, Vikings, Buccaneers, and Cowboys playing in the first round.  The Falcons still control their own destiny, even though they are the number seven team in the NFC this week.  Also in the running for a playoff spot are the Eagles, Redskins, Saints, and Bears.

 

If the season ended today in the AFC, the Titans and Steelers would get first round byes, with the Jets, Broncos, Colts, and Ravens playing in the first round.  The Dolphins and Patriots still have good chances to move up, while the rest of the conference is out of the picture (San Diego could sneak in with three wins and three Denver losses).

 

 

This week’s schedule is chock full of important games with playoff implications.  In the NFC alone, there are five games where both teams have winning records and strong playoff chances.  It will be almost like a preliminary to the playoffs.  In the AFC, all eyes will be in Baltimore for the big game between the Ravens and Steelers.  Pittsburgh must play at Tennessee next week, so the Steelers have a rough couple of road games.

 

The PiRate Pro Ratings (Rating)

 

The NFL version of the PiRate Ratings is not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL version is strictly a statistical formula than could be reproduced by anybody who knew the equations I use to devise the formula.  No subjective data is used.

 

The formula combines scoring margin, strength of schedule, and early in the season, last year’s scoring margin and strength of schedule.  As the season progresses, last year’s data decreases to where it has little effect by mid-October. 

 

The Mean Ratings (Mean)

 

Just like the PiRate Ratings, the NFL Mean Ratings are not the same as the collegiate version.  The NFL Mean Ratings consist of a dozen different calculations.  Three calculations consist of different ways to look at point differential and strength of schedule.  Five calculations look at yards gained and allowed rushing and passing and special teams play with the strength of the opponents’ rushing and passing.  Point values are assigned based on each set of data.  The remaining four ratings are my old four pro ratings from the 1970’s and 1980’s.  The 12 ratings are given equal weight, and then I take the average (mean) to get the rating.

 

The Bias Ratings (Biased)

 

The Bias Ratings consist of five of the components of The Mean Ratings.  The five ratings are not given equal weight.  The five ratings are weighted at 37.5%, 25%, 12.5%, 12.5%, and 12.5%.  I have back tested these ratings and found that this weighting gives the rating its best predictive percentage.

 

All three ratings are normalized so that 100 is average.  If I don’t mess up with the math, each of the three ratings should average 100.  The teams’ ratings show how many points above or below average they are in comparison with the rest of the league.  A rating of 107 means that team is a touchdown better than average, while a rating of 93 means that team is a touchdown weaker than average. 

 

I do not attempt to rate teams from different years.  A 107-rated team in 2008 is not the same as a 107-rated team from 1972.  We all know that due to the evolution of strength and quickness, today’s Detroit Lions would blow the 1972 Miami Dolphins off the field.

 

Current NFL Standings
NFC East Won   Lost   Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

11

2

0

366

226

110.21

109.88

108.46

2

Dallas

8

5

0

312

280

102.02

102.78

103.60

2

Philadelphia

7

5

1

339

263

107.18

105.64

105.81

2

Washington

7

6

0

218

246

99.03

99.74

100.60

2

NFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Minnesota

8

5

0

307

276

103.51

103.71

104.09

2

Chicago

7

6

0

304

278

102.34

101.17

102.15

2

Green Bay

5

8

0

355

319

104.62

102.10

100.99

2

Detroit

0

13

0

219

413

87.55

88.46

87.65

3

NFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Carolina

10

3

0

323

254

105.75

104.74

106.54

2

Tampa Bay

9

4

0

303

238

105.14

103.85

105.04

2

Atlanta  

8

5

0

323

271

104.40

103.44

103.62

2

New Orleans

7

6

0

366

326

103.61

103.00

102.17

2

NFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Arizona

8

5

0

372

323

101.44

100.95

102.52

3

San Francisco

5

8

0

286

327

95.22

96.48

96.19

3

Seattle

2

11

0

237

335

92.29

92.89

92.48

3

St. Louis

2

11

0

169

394

83.23

86.90

84.67

2

AFC East

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

New York

8

5

0

354

292

101.26

101.10

102.52

2

New England

8

5

0

301

276

99.57

101.16

102.79

2

Miami

8

5

0

269

260

98.26

98.56

102.01

2

Buffalo

6

7

0

279

275

96.33

95.31

97.37

3

AFC North

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Pittsburgh

10

3

0

289

183

108.86

108.01

107.22

2

Baltimore

9

4

0

316

200

109.24

108.03

106.70

3

Cleveland

4

9

0

222

275

97.55

97.36

95.03

2

Cincinnati

1

11

1

154

345

90.35

91.54

88.23

2

AFC South

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Tennessee

12

1

0

332

184

110.21

108.83

108.85

2

Indianapolis

9

4

0

292

253

104.85

105.51

105.92

2

Houston

6

7

0

306

331

99.15

100.04

100.08

3

Jacksonville

4

9

0

251

293

97.23

96.78

94.85

3

AFC West

Won

 

Lost

 

Tied

Pts

Opp

Rating

Mean

Biased

HTA

Denver

8

5

0

316

336

96.27

98.09

100.92

2

San Diego

5

8

0

324

281

102.60

100.41

100.85

2

Oakland

3

10

0

179

299

90.57

91.98

89.56

2

Kansas City

2

11

0

233

364

90.15

91.53

90.58

2

                         

 

 

Note: due to the Thursday game, weather forecasts and odds are those as of Wednesday 12 Noon EST

 

You will now see multiple numbers given in the Vegas line and Ov/Un.  I am listing the range given by the different books in Vegas and offshore as of 12 Noon EST Wednesday, so you can use the one that best meets your needs.  Remember though, if you use parlays and teasers, you must use the same source.  You cannot play a parlay using the odds from different books.  What you will see in my “imaginary picks” below will show different books, but each teaser will be composed of games from the same book.  When I believe it is okay to play different spreads of the same game, I have put those numbers in parentheses.  If you don’t see different choices, then I only recommend that single spread for that game.

 

I leave it to you to find out the book in question.  Generally, some of the big ones in Vegas are: Hilton, Caesar’s-Harrah’s, MGM Mirage, Stations, Leroy’s, Wynn, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, and The Palms.  Some of the large offshore books include: BetUs, Bodog, Sportsbook, BetJamaica, and Pinnacle.

 

Average Simulation Scores for each game are now rounded to nearest whole number.

 

NFL Previews-Week 15

 

New Orleans (7-6-0) at Chicago (7-6-0)

Time:           8:15 PM EST, Thursday

TV:               NFL Network

Forecast:     Overcast sky, moderate wind, temperature falling from the upper 20’s to the mid 20’s

 

PiRate:                Chicago by 1                   

Mean:                  Tossup

Bias:                    Chicago by 2

Vegas:               Chicago by 2.5, 3

Ov/Un:               44.5, 45, 45.5

100 Sims:           Chicago 64 New Orleans 36

Avg Sim Score:  Chicago 27 New Orleans 23

Outlier 1a Sim:  Chicago 34 New Orleans 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  New Orleans 30 Chicago 17

 

Strategy:     Chicago -2½, Chicago +7½ in 10-point teaser, Chicago +10½ in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 13-point teaser  

Drew Brees may be held well under his 300+ yard average in passing yards in this game due to the elements and not because of the Chicago pass defense  On an average day game, Brees might pass for over 400 yards against the Bears.  The Bears’ defensive line should contain the run just enough to force Brees to pass a few times too many in this game.  I expect Brees to go down at least twice, and he may rush some throws and connect with the wrong jersey.

 

The Bears won’t exploit the Saints’ defense like some teams have, but I expect the home team to win this game by more than a field goal.  The home field advantage should be on the high side for this game between two evenly-matched teams.  I’m looking for Chicago to win by a score around 24-20 with Matt Forte having a great night.

 

The loser of this game will not make the playoffs this year, while the winner stays in contention for another week.  With Minnesota playing a tough road game, Chicago could move into a first place tie in the black and blue division with a win.

 

 

Green Bay (5-8-0) at Jacksonville (4-9-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Mostly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature around 70

 

PiRate:                Green Bay by 9

Mean:                  Green Bay by 2

Bias:                    Green Bay by 6

Vegas:               Green Bay by 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5  

Ov/Un:               45, 45.5

100 Sims:           Green Bay 58 Jacksonville 42

Avg Sim Score:  Green Bay 25 Jacksonville 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Green Bay 37 Jacksonville 21

Outlier 1b Sim:  Jacksonville 20 Green Bay 10

 

Strategy:     Jacksonville +12½ in 10-point teaser, Jacksonville +15½ in 13-point teaser, Over 32 in 13-point teaser, Under 58½ in 13-point teaser    

Welcome to the Disappointment Bowl.  These two teams are done for the year and have nothing to play for other than pride.  The Jaguars may be as weak as Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Oakland at this point of the season.  Green Bay’s problem is an inconsistent defense, especially against the pass.

 

Jacksonville’s passing game shouldn’t do to the Packers secondary what other teams have done this year, and the running game will be hindered with the absence of Fred Taylor due to an injured thumb.

 

I am looking for this game to be lower scoring than expected but not a defensive struggle.  The Packers should win this road game, but I have no confidence in the certitude.  I’ll call for them to win this one by a score similar to 24-17.

 

 

Detroit (0-13-0) at Indianapolis (9-4-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Cloudy, moderate wind, temperature around 50 if the dome roof is open

 

PiRate:                Indianapolis by 19

Mean:                  Indianapolis by 19

Bias:                    Indianapolis by 20

Vegas:               Indianapolis by 17,18   

Ov/Un:               Indianapolis by 44.5, 45

100 Sims:           Indianapolis 100 Detroit 0

Avg Sim Score:  Indianapolis 34 Detroit 12

Outlier 1a Sim:  Indianapolis 56 Detroit 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Indianapolis 27 Detroit 24

 

Strategy:     Over 31½ in 13-point teaser

The simulation gave Indianapolis 100 wins in 100 sims.  I haven’t run 100 simulations for that long, but I have to believe it is quite a rarity for it to return 100% success for any NFL Team in a scheduled game.

 

I estimate the Colts to have a 95% chance of winning this game and a 50% chance of winning by double digits.  Peyton Manning and company have the offense up to full speed, and I could easily see the Colts running the table to finish 12-4 and winning their wildcard playoff round.

 

Detroit’s chances to get a win are getting slim.  With New Orleans at home and Green Bay on the road, it may not happen this year.  The Lions could become the first 0-16 team in history. 

 

This week, I am looking for the Colts to win almost effortlessly.  I could see them with a 28-3 lead at the half and then cruising to a 38-10 victory.  I favor the 13-point tease of the Over in this one, as I believe Indianapolis will top 31 points.  Even if they shut out Detroit (with the Lions’ QB problems, it could happen), the Colts can cover 31½ total points by themselves.

 

 

Washington (7-6-0) at Cincinnati (1-11-1)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the low 50’s

 

PiRate:                Washington by 7

Mean:                  Washington by 6

Bias:                    Washington by 10

Vegas:               Washington by 6.5, 7, 7.5          

Ov/Un:               36.5, 37

100 Sims:           Washington 82 Cincinnati 18

Avg Sim Score:  Washington 26 Cincinnati 18

Outlier 1a Sim:  Washington 38 Cincinnati 13

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cincinnati 24 Washington 20 (2 times)

 

Strategy:            Over 23½ in 13-point teaser

This is a must-win game for the Redskins.  In all likelihood, they have to win out to qualify as a wildcard team.  They have dropped four out of their last five games, and I doubt they will win their final three.  In fact, this game could be their last win of the season.

 

Cincinnati has mailed it in for the year.  They need major reconstruction, and I think it will be quite some time before the Bengals are competitive again.  The Reds could be in the Major League playoffs before the Bengals make the NFL playoffs.

 

I look for a low-scoring game with Washington winning in boring fashion.  Clinton Portis will probably have a great game after running his mouth all week.

 

I don’t like playing the sides in this one, even in teasers.  While I think the Bengals will struggle to score more than a touchdown in this game, I do see Washington topping 21 points.  That makes the low Over a play in a 13-point teaser.

 

 

Tampa Bay (9-4-0) at Atlanta (8-5-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Atlanta by 1

Mean:                  Atlanta by 2

Bias:                    Atlanta by 1

Vegas:                Atlanta by 2.5, 3  

Ov/Un:               44.5, 45

100 Sims:           Atlanta 53 Tampa Bay 47

Avg Sim Score:  Atlanta 23 Tampa Bay 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Atlanta 28 Tampa Bay 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Tampa Bay 23 Atlanta 14

(note: 7 sims went to OT)

 

Strategy:     Under 58 in 13-point teaser, Over 31.5 in 13-point teaser

This should be a great game, possibly one of the five best games of the regular season.  Both teams are coming off tough divisional losses.  The winner of this game will hold on strong to the top of the wildcard playoff bubble, while the loser will join a host of other teams in a mix at the bottom of the bubble.

 

Matt Ryan had his worst game when these two met in St. Petersburg in September.  I expect a much better effort this time out, and I also expect Michael Turner to break off a couple of 10+ yard runs.

 

This game will be close, and I believe both teams will score in the 20’s.  The best plays here are to sandwich the expected 40-50 point total with a teasing of both the Over and Under.

 

 

San Francisco (5-8-0) at Miami (8-5-0)

Time:           1PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Showers likely, moderate wind, temperature in the mid to upper 70’s

 

PiRate:                Miami by 5

Mean:                  Miami by 4

Bias:                    Miami by 8

Vegas:               Miami by 6.5, 7  

Ov/Un:               41.5, 42

100 Sims:           Miami 57 San Francisco 43

Avg Sim Score:  Miami 22 San Francisco 20

Outlier 1a Sim:  Miami 27 San Francisco 10

Outlier 1b Sim:  San Francisco 21 Miami 13

 

Strategy:            Under 55 in 13-point teaser

This one is a hard one to figure out.  The 49ers are playing really good ball even though it is too late to make the playoffs.  The Dolphins are in the hunt for both a wildcard spot and divisional championship.  Obviously, this is a critical game for Miami, and a loss would put them in serious jeopardy in the AFC playoff hunt.

 

Miami has quietly won six of seven games, and I think they are quietly going to win their next two games to set up a monumental season finale against the Jets in The Meadowlands.

 

As for this game, I expect it to be a hard-fought defensive battle.  I cannot say for sure that Miami can cover at 6½ or 7 points, but I do believe both teams will score fewer than 25 points.  Thus, teasing the Over is my selection for this game.

 

Seattle (2-11-0) at St. Louis (2-11-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Dome

 

PiRate:                Seattle by 7

Mean:                  Seattle by 4

Bias:                    Seattle by 6

Vegas:               Seattle by 3

Ov/Un:               43, 43.5  

100 Sims:           Seattle 61 St. Louis 39

Avg Sim Score:  Seattle 26 St. Louis 19

Outlier 1a Sim:  Seattle 24 St. Louis 3

Outlier 1b Sim:  St. Louis 17 Seattle 10

 

Strategy:     St. Louis +16 in 13-point teaser, Over 30 in 13-point teaser, Under 56½ in 13-point teaser

How much would you pay for tickets to this game?  You might find someone willing to pay you to take their ticket.  It was expected that St. Louis would be where they are at this point in the season, but Seattle was supposed to be about 9-4 after 13 games.  Injuries ruined their season, and those injuries continue to plague the Seahawks.  Don’t expect Matt Hasselbeck to play in this game.  Seneca Wallace isn’t totally healthy, but he’ll likely start this game.

 

The Rams should never be expected to win a game before it starts, even if they are hosting Detroit or Cincinnati.  I do expect them to lose by no more than 14 points if at all, so I can recommend taking St. Louis in a 13-point teaser.  My guess at the total score for this game is something like 23-21, which places that in the middle between the extremes of a 13-point teaser.

 

 

Buffalo (6-7-0) at New York Jets (8-5-0)

Time:           1:00PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the mid 40’s

 

PiRate:                Jets by 7

Mean:                 Jets by 8

Bias:                    Jets by 7

Vegas:                Jets by 7, 7.5

Ov/Un:               41

100 Sims:           Jets 73 Buffalo 27

Avg Sim Score:  Jets 32 Buffalo 24

Outlier 1a Sim:  Jets 48 Buffalo 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  Buffalo 28 Jets 20

 

Strategy:     Jets +3 in 10-point teaser, Jets +6 in 13-point teaser, Over 28 in 13-point teaser

Buffalo started 5-0, and the Bills have since gone 1-7.  Their season is done, and Dick Jauron has done nothing to earn his extension.

 

The Jets can ill afford to lose three games in a row and make the playoffs in the highly competitive AFC.  It looks like 10-6 will be the minimum record for the successful wildcard qualifiers.  A loss in this game just may be too much to overcome.  The Jets won handily in Buffalo six weeks ago, and they should win again this week.  Thus, I like playing New York on both 10 and 13-point teasers.  The 13-point tease of the Over should win before halftime, as I see 50 total points being scored in this game.

 

 

Tennessee (12-1-0) at Houston (6-7-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Chance of thunderstorms, light wind, temperature in the mid 70’s

 

PiRate:                Tennessee by 8

Mean:                 Tennessee by 6

Bias:                    Tennessee by 6

Vegas:                Tennessee by 3, 3.5

Ov/Un:               44.5, 45

100 Sims:           Tennessee 66 Houston 34

Avg Sim Score:  Tennessee 29 Houston 22

Outlier 1a Sim:  Tennessee 33 Houston 14

Outlier 1b Sim:  Houston 28 Tennessee 16

 

Strategy:     Houston +13½ in 10-point teaser, Houston +16½ in 13-point teaser, Over 31½ in 13-point teaser, Under 58 (or 57½) in 13-point teaser     

This is a trap game for sure.  Even though the Texans cannot qualify for the playoffs this year, they still have much to play for, like their first ever winning season.  That September hurricane probably cost them a shot at the playoffs, for Houston might be 8-5 or 9-4 instead of 6-7 if it weren’t for all the troubles they endured in September.

 

In the first meeting of these two teams, Tennessee won by 19 points, but the game was much closer than the score indicated.  The Titans led 24-12 with Houston near the Tennessee goal line, when Titan CB Cortland Finnegan picked off a Matt Schaub pass and returned it 99 yards for a touchdown.

 

The Texans haven’t forgotten that game, nor have they forgotten that they had success running the ball against the Tennessee defense.  Steve Slaton topped 100 yards in that game.

 

Tennessee could wrap up home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win Sunday.  It won’t be easy, and I think they have little more than a 50-55% chance of winning.  The Titans are the Texans’ biggest rival for obvious reasons, and they would like nothing more than to spoil that clinching chance for Tennessee.

 

I believe this game will be higher scoring than expected.  Tennessee has given up more than 21 points only once this year, and that was their lone loss.  I believe Houston will become the second opponent to top 21 points, but I’m not sure it will be enough to win the game.

 

I’m going with Tennessee to win and clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but I don’t think they will win by much.

 

 

Pittsburgh (10-3-0) at Baltimore (9-4-0)

Time:           3:15PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the upper 40’s

 

PiRate:                Baltimore by 3

Mean:                  Baltimore by 3

Bias:                    Baltimore by 2

Vegas:               Baltimore by 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5

Ov/Un:               34, 34.5

100 Sims:           Baltimore 50 Pittsburgh 50

Avg Sim Score:  Baltimore 20 Pittsburgh 19

Outlier 1a Sim:  Baltimore 17 Pittsburgh 0

Outlier 1b Sim:  Pittsburgh 20 Baltimore 7

 

Strategy:     Baltimore -1, Baltimore +9 in 10-point teaser, Baltimore +12 in 13-point teaser, Pittsburgh +15½  (14, 14½, or 15) in 13-point teaser, Over 21 in 13-point teaser, Under 47 in 13-point teaser

This is the top game of the day, and it will look like one of those Packers-Vikings games from the mid to late 1960’s.  The winner could very well score just 10 points in this game, although I am expecting Baltimore to score at least 17 points and win the game.

 

The Steelers will clinch the AFC North with a win, and if Baltimore wins, the Steelers would still hold the tie-breaker edge over the Ravens by virtue of a one-game edge in AFC games (the 4th tie-breaker scenario). 

 

Both teams face a tough opponent on the road next week, and this game takes on even greater importance.  If Baltimore wins this week, and both teams lose next week, then it will take the 5th tiebreaking rule to separate the two.  That one is strength of victory, and it could still leave them tied.  Tiebreaker number six is strength of schedule, and yes, if New England and San Diego were to lose a few more games than Miami and Oakland, this could be a push as well.  Tiebreaker numbers seven through 11 would have to decide it, because tiebreaker number 12 is a coin flip.  With the NFL having so many financial troubles and with layoffs announced, they may not have the coin to make that flip and Bank of America won’t lend one to them.

 

Seriously, I look for Baltimore to play just a little more inspired and emerge with a 17-10 victory.  Both teams will make the playoffs if they are 10-4 after this game.  If Pittsburgh should find a way to win, then next week’s game at Tennessee could be for number one in the conference.

 

Denver (8-5-0) at Carolina (10-3-0)

Time:           4:15PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Mostly cloudy, light wind, temperature in the low 50’s

 

PiRate:                Carolina by 11

Mean:                 Carolina by 9

Bias:                   Carolina by 8

Vegas:               Carolina by 7, 7.5, 9

Ov/Un:               47, 47.5, 48

100 Sims:           Carolina 54 Denver 46

Avg Sim Score:  Carolina 29 Denver 28

Outlier 1a Sim:  Carolina 45 Denver 24

Outlier 1b Sim:  Denver 41 Carolina 24

 

Strategy:            Denver +19 in 10-point teaser, Denver +22 in 13-point teaser, Over 34 (34½ or 35) in 13-point teaser

It looked like the Broncos were going to swoon right out of the top spot in the AFC West after losing four of five earlier this year.  However, San Diego kept finding ways to lose, and now the Broncos have recovered as of late, winning four of five including two big road victories.

 

The time is right for the Panthers to bounce a little and come out flat in a game against a team capable of beating them in Charlotte.  Carolina played brilliantly, especially on offense, against Tampa Bay Monday night, but I don’t believe their running game will come close to repeating the production in that game.  Denver is by no means a run-stopping team, but they will concentrate their efforts on stopping the two-headed monster of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.  Jake Delhomme will have to pass the ball for the Panthers to win. 

 

I expect this to be a high scoring game.  Jay Cutler will not have Peyton Hillis available for this game, so I expect the Broncos will throw the ball 40 times and pick up more than 300 yards.

 

This game could see more than 135 scrimmage plays, and that should lead to both teams topping 24 points.  I like teasing the Over here, as I just cannot see the offenses being stopped all day, especially with this game set to be played in ideal football weather.

 

 

San Diego (5-8-0) at Kansas City (2-11-0)

Time:           1:00 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Chance of showers, moderate wind, temperature in the low 50’s

 

PiRate:                San Diego by 10

Mean:                 San Diego by 7

Bias:                   San Diego by 8

Vegas:                San Diego by 4.5, 5, 5.5

Ov/Un:               45, 45.5, 46, 46.5

100 Sims:           Kansas City 52 San Diego 48

Avg Sim Score:  Kansas City 25 San Diego 24

Outlier 1a Sim:  Kansas City 28 San Diego 17

Outlier 1b Sim:  San Diego 40 Kansas City 20

 

Strategy:            Kansas City +15½ (15, 14½) in 10-point teaser, Kansas City +18½ (18, 17½) in 13-point teaser, Under 59½ (59, 58½) in 13-point teaser, Over 32 in 13-point teaser

Contrary to what the Charger brass have stated publicly, I believe this is going to be the final season for Coach Norv Turner in San Diego.  His team was robbed in that game in Denver, and that wasn’t his fault.  However, the way they reacted after that game and failed to recover is his fault.  He could even be shown the door Monday if San Diego loses to the lowly Chiefs.

 

Kansas City is not a pushover.  Just ask Denver after the Broncos had to come from behind to win at Invesco Field and avoid the sweep.  Five weeks ago at Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego escaped with a 20-19 win over Kansas City.

 

Note that the simulator gives Kansas City a 52% chance to win this game even though the Chargers are favored by more than a field goal.  I like those odds, and I am taking Kansas City in the teasers because of that.

 

Minnesota (8-5-0) at Arizona (8-5-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               Fox

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature in the low 60’s

 

PiRate:                Arizona by 1

Mean:                 Tossup

Bias:                   Arizona by 1

Vegas:                Arizona by 3   

Ov/Un:               47.5, 48

100 Sims:           Arizona 59 Minnesota 41

Avg Sim Score:  Arizona 33 Minnesota 24

Outlier 1a Sim:  Arizona 52 Minnesota 31

Outlier 1b Sim:  Minnesota 27 Arizona 17

 

Strategy:     Over 34 ½ (35) in 13-point teaser

This is another one of those great NFC games this week.  While Arizona has already clinched their division, the Cardinals can still get a first round bye if they win out and Carolina and Tampa Bay lose enough games.

 

Minnesota holds a tiny one game edge over Chicago, and they have the toughest final three games of any of the NFC contenders.  The Vikings must close against the Falcons and Giants after this game.

 

I give the Cardinals a very slight advantage in this game, but I find no value in any plays on sides in this game.  My only inclination is to tease the Over.  I cannot see Minnesota’s defense holding Kurt Warner and company at bay very often, and I cannot see Arizona stopping Adrian Peterson very often.  Tarvaris Jackson gets another chance to show he belongs in the NFL, as Gus Frerotte doesn’t appear likely to play. 

 

 

New England (8-5-0) at Oakland (3-10-0)

Time:           4:15 PM EST

TV:               CBS

Forecast:     Rain showers, light wind, temperature in the upper 40’s

 

PiRate:                New England by 7

Mean:                  New England by 8

Bias:                    New England by 11

Vegas:               New England by 7

Ov/Un:               39,40

100 Sims:           New England 89 Oakland 11

Avg Sim Score:  New England 24 Oakland 15

Outlier 1a Sim:  New England 37 Oakland 7

Outlier 1b Sim:  Oakland 21 New England 16

 

Strategy:     Under 53 (52) in 13-point teaser

The Patriots have to win this game to stay in the playoff hunt.  If they lose to the pitiful Raiders, they may just fold up.  It’s not going to be easy for Coach Bill Belichick’s team this week.  Quarterback Matt Cassel left the team following the passing of his father.  He may not be ready to play Sunday.  Rookie Kevin O’Connell would start in his place, and even the Raiders’ anemic defense would give him fits.

 

Oakland isn’t healthy by any means, and I mean physically as well as mentally.  Quarterback JaMarcus Russell has a gimpy ankle, and he hasn’t produced all that much when he has been healthy.  Former Raider quarterback Rich Gannon openly stated that he does not think Russell has a work ethic conducive to being a winner in this league.

 

I expect this to be a low scoring game if Cassel is not on hand.  The totals line has dropped, and I am sure it will drop after this blog story comes out.  I am playing the Under in a 13-point teaser while I can get that number at 53 (or 52) points because I believe this will be a 35 to 45-point game.

 

New York Giants (11-2-0) at Dallas (8-5-0)

Time:           8:15PM EST

TV:               NBC

Forecast:     Partly cloudy, moderate wind, temperature falling from the upper to mid 60’s

                    

PiRate:                Giants by 6

Mean:                  Giants by 5

Bias:                    Giants by 3

Vegas:               Dallas by 2.5, 3

Ov/Un:               44, 44.5, 45

100 Sims:           Giants 58 Dallas 42

Avg Sim Score:  Giants 23 Dallas 19

Outlier 1a Sim:  Giants 28 Dallas 12

Outlier 1b Sim:  Dallas 24 Giants 10

 

Strategy:            Giants +13 in 10-point teaser, Giants +16 in 13-point teaser, Under 58 in 13-point teaser, Over 31 in 13-point teaser

Dallas should be favored in this game, and the betting public believes that as well.  The simulator has no biases, and it believes the Giants have a 58% chance of winning this game.  All three of my computer ratings agree with the simulator and favor New York by six, five, and three points.  That data is good enough for me to take the Giants in both 10 and 13-point teasers.

 

Almost all 100 simulations of this game produced scores with total points between 35 and 55.  So, I like playing both sides in 13-point teasers.

 

I think New York will pull off the mild upset and force Dallas into must-win situations their final two weeks.  The victory may hurt New York down the stretch, as this game should be very physical.  Without running back Brandon Jacobs, there’s a chance Eli Manning could see a heavier pass rush and possibly suffer an injury in this game.  With Carolina coming up next on the schedule and Minnesota probably needing a win in week 17, the Giants could trip up as the season concludes.  They need this game more than any of the other teams that have already clinched their division.  If they lose this one to fall to 11-3, they could easily lose their last two as well.

 

Dallas could also lose their final three games and miss out on the playoffs.  Baltimore and Philadelphia are two tough hombres as the season winds down.  This is probably a must-win game for the team and Coach Wade Phillips.  I’m guessing with a loss, Dallas is on the outside looking in, and Coach Phillips is soon to be on the unemployment line.

 

Cleveland (4-9-0) at Philadelphia (7-5-1)

Time:           8:30PM EST Monday

TV:               ESPN

Forecast:     Clear, light wind, temperature holding steady in the upper 40’s

 

PiRate:                Philadelphia by 12  

Mean:                  Philadelphia by 10

Bias:                    Philadelphia by 13

Vegas:                Philadelphia by 14, 14.5, 15

Ov/Un:               38.5, 39

100 Sims:           Philadelphia 90 Cleveland 10

Avg Sim Score:  Philadelphia 29 Cleveland 13

Outlier 1a Sim:  Philadelphia 44 Cleveland 6

Outlier 1b Sim:  Cleveland 28 Philadelphia 24

 

Strategy:     Over 28½ (29) in 10-point teaser, Over 25½ (26) in 13-point teaser 

Cleveland failed to show up last week in Nashville, and now they face a hungry and mad Eagles team ready to claw them to pieces.

 

Since the tie debacle with Cincinnati and a terrible follow-up with Baltimore, Philadelphia has been a terror on the gridiron.  The Eagles destroyed Arizona and then won at the Giants.  They have a clear path to a 10-5-1 season, and I think they will bring their A-game this week to the 21st Century version of the Mistake on the Lake known as Browns Stadium.

 

I don’t like the line in this game, but I do like the totals.  Philadelphia should top 24 points in this one, so I see both the 10 and 13-point teasers as being strong plays.  Remember that almost every Monday night game this year has been an offensive shootout.  I just cannot see the Browns slowing Donovan McNabb and company much if at all.

 

 

Hurray For A Good Week

 

I played it conservatively last week and stuck with what I had studied the most-playing teasers with totals instead of sides.  It produced a 5-2 record for the week and just missed by a whisker of going 7-0 (one game of each losing teaser just missed).  The return on the $700 “wagered” was $950 for a nice profit of $250 and ROI of 35.7%.

 

For the season, the record against the spread is now 94-75-7, which computes to 55.6%.  I’m under 60%, where I was for most of this season, but it least we are headed back up again.

 

I don’t really like most of the games this week insofar as picking point spread winners.  This is going to be a fun week for watching some big games.  I will stay with my minimalist view for another week and try to find the top values rather than go for quantity.

 

Here are my wagers for week 15 (all wagered to win $100 or $100 wagered if at + odds on a parlay or money line):

 

ALL 5 WAGERS = 13-POINT TEASERS

 

For those not familiar with a 13-point teaser, you can move the lines 13 points in your favor, but you must play a four-game parlay and all four games must win to win the wager.  You play at odds of 10-13, meaning you put up $13 for every $10 the book puts up.

 

1.    New Orleans & Chicago OVER 31½

       Green Bay & Jacksonville OVER 32

       Detroit & Indianapolis OVER 31½

       Washington & Cincinnati OVER 23½

 

2.    Tampa Bay & Atlanta OVER 31½

       San Francisco & Miami UNDER 55

       Buffalo & NY Jets OVER 28

       Tennessee & Houston UNDER 58

 

3.    Pittsburgh & Baltimore OVER 21

       Denver & Carolina OVER 34

       San Diego & Kansas City UNDER 59½

       New England & Oakland UNDER 53

 

4.    Seattle & St. Louis OVER 30

       Tennessee & Houston OVER 31½

       Minnesota & Arizona OVER 35

       NY Giants & Dallas UNDER 58

 

5.    Seattle & St. Louis UNDER 56½

       Pittsburgh & Baltimore OVER 21

       NY Giants & Dallas OVER 31

       Philadelphia & Cleveland OVER 25½   

 

AND REMEMBER!!!  Do not use these picks for real.  I have no real money on the line in this mathematical experiment.  I won’t lose a penny if all these wagers lose this week, so you shouldn’t risk a penny on these picks either.  This is strictly for fun.

December 8, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation League: Week 14–December 8, 2008

Pro Football Computer Simulation League: Week 14-12-08-08

 

As year two of the Pro Football Computer Simulation League begins to reach its conclusion, it is apparent that there are more quality teams in the NFC than the AFC.  If the simulated playoffs were to begin today, the 1984 San Francisco 49ers and 1992 Dallas Cowboys would be out with 8-5 records, while in the AFC, 7-6 would be good enough for the 1990 Buffalo Bills to qualify as a wildcard team.

 

Here is a look at results for this weekend.  The weather played an important part in many games, causing more turnovers and less offense on the average.

 

2006 San Diego

28

2000 Oakland

17

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2006 SD

14

0

7

7

 

28

2000 Oak

3

7

7

0

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SD

Stat

Oak

 

 

 

 

18

FD

17

 

 

 

 

42-176

Rush-Yds

17-56

 

 

 

 

180

Pass Yds

211

 

 

 

 

17-26-0

Passes

19-33-2

 

 

 

 

1-6

Sacks

1-7

 

 

 

 

5-43.2

Punt

6-45.2

 

 

 

 

2-31

PR

3-31

 

 

 

 

5-35

Pen

7-50

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

69

Play

51

 

 

 

 

350

Tot Yds

260

 

 

 

SD-LaDainian Tomlinson rush: 26-127

 

1998 Atlanta

17

1987 New Orleans

14

 

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1987 NO

0

7

7

0

 

14

1998 Atl

7

3

7

0

 

17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NO

Stat

Atl

 

 

 

 

14

FD

17

 

 

 

 

24-79

Rush-Yds

41-193

 

 

 

 

227

Pass Yds

142

 

 

 

 

19-32-1

Passes

11-19-0

 

 

 

 

3-22

Sacks

1-5

 

 

 

 

8-43.4

Punt

6-44.7

 

 

 

 

2-22

PR

4-46

 

 

 

 

6-43

Pen

5-42

 

 

 

 

1-1

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

59

Play

61

 

 

 

 

284

Tot Yds

330

 

 

 

Atl-Jamal Anderson rush: 26-159 & 1 TD

 

2000 Baltimore

16

1991 Washington

13

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2000 Bal

0

7

6

3

 

16

1991 Was

0

6

0

7

 

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bal

Stat

Was

 

 

 

 

14

FD

14

 

 

 

 

36-129

Rush-Yds

24-81

 

 

 

 

131

Pass Yds

152

 

 

 

 

11-24-1

Passes

15-29-1

 

 

 

 

2-11

Sacks

3-17

 

 

 

 

7-41.6

Punt

6-42.0

 

 

 

 

4-33

PR

3-41

 

 

 

 

6-42

Pen

4-31

 

 

 

 

0-0

Fum

2-1

 

 

 

 

62

Play

56

 

 

 

 

249

Tot Yds

216

 

 

 

Ravens Defense held Redskins to 2 FDs and 74 yards in 2nd half

 

1986 NY Giants

20

2004 Philadelphia

14

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1986 NYG

10

0

10

0

 

20

2004 Phi

7

0

7

0

 

14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NYG

Stat

Phi

 

 

 

 

16

FD

15

 

 

 

 

35-133

Rush-Yds

30-93

 

 

 

 

215

Pass Yds

183

 

 

 

 

15-25-1

Passes

17-32-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-15

 

 

 

 

5-41.6

Punt

6-42.7

 

 

 

 

3-19

PR

2-31

 

 

 

 

4-20

Pen

3-25

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

60

Play

64

 

 

 

 

348

Tot Yds

261

 

 

 

NYG: Terry Kinard intercepted two passes and returned one 36 yards to set up TD

 

 

1985 Chicago

24

1999 Jacksonville

10

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1985 Chi

3

14

7

0

 

24

1999 Jac

0

0

10

0

 

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chi

Stat

Jac

 

 

 

 

16

FD

11

 

 

 

 

44-182

Rush-Yds

18-44

 

 

 

 

143

Pass Yds

137

 

 

 

 

12-22-0

Passes

12-27-2

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

4-31

 

 

 

 

5-44.6

Punt

8-43.5

 

 

 

 

4-71

PR

2-19

 

 

 

 

5-40

Pen

4-28

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

0-0

 

 

 

 

66

Play

49

 

 

 

 

325

Tot Yds

150

 

 

 

Chi: Leslie Frazier returned a 3rd qtr. Interception for a TD to put game away

 

1998 Minnesota

37

1991 Detroit

20

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1991 Det

10

7

3

0

 

20

1998 Min

9

7

7

14

 

37

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Det

Stat

Min

 

 

 

 

17

FD

21

 

 

 

 

43-198

Rush-Yds

28-111

 

 

 

 

140

Pass Yds

245

 

 

 

 

12-23-1

Passes

18-29-1

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

1-8

 

 

 

 

4-38.8

Punt

5-43.2

 

 

 

 

2-15

PR

1-10

 

 

 

 

5-43

Pen

4-35

 

 

 

 

2-1

Fum

1-0

 

 

 

 

66

Play

58

 

 

 

 

338

Tot Yds

348

 

 

 

Min: Cris Carter Rec. 7-126 & 2 TD

 

1996 Green Bay

27

2007 Houston

13

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

1996 GB

7

3

14

3

 

27

2007 Hou

0

7

3

3

 

13

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GB

Stat

Hou

 

 

 

 

20

FD

15

 

 

 

 

37-126

Rush-Yds

27-83

 

 

 

 

207

Pass Yds

168

 

 

 

 

17-28-1

Passes

17-31-1

 

 

 

 

0-0

Sacks

2-15

 

 

 

 

4-45.8

Punt

6-41.5

 

 

 

 

3-47

PR

2-10

 

 

 

 

5-34

Pen

5-49

 

 

 

 

1-0

Fum

1-1

 

 

 

 

65

Play

60

 

 

 

 

333

Tot Yds

236

 

 

 

GB-Santana Dotson 1 QB sack & 1 Fumble Recovery

 

2005 Indianapolis

34

1981 Cincinnati

24

 

Team

1

2

3

4

OT

F

2005 Ind

14

10

7

3

 

34

1981 Cin

7

10

0

7

 

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ind

Stat

Cin

 

 

 

 

20

FD

18

 

 

 

 

34-146

Rush-Yds

29-91

 

 

 

 

229

Pass Yds

266

 

 

 

 

16-22-0