The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 1, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 12: December 3-7, 2009

Week 13 NFL Preview

 

Will week 13 be unlucky for an undefeated team?  New Orleans is coming off an emotional Monday night win over New England.  The Saints have what looks like a relatively easy game at Washington, but this could be a much closer game than expected.

11-0 Indianapolis has clinched the AFC South Division and owns a three game lead over Cincinnati and San Diego for home field advantage.  They face the suddenly streaking Tennessee Titans, winners of five games in a row after beginning the year 0-6.  Tennessee basically has to run the table to earn an improbable and virtually impossible playoff spot.

NFL football returns to the Rogers Centre in Toronto Thursday night when the Bills and the Jets hook up.  It should be a fun one to watch for the folks in Ontario, and a sellout could bolster the chances for North America’s fifth largest city obtaining an NFL franchise one day.

The must-win teams this week are: The Jets against Buffalo; Pittsburgh against Oakland (uncertainty at QB for the Steelers); Houston and Jacksonville; Tennessee against Indianapolis; Atlanta and Philadelphia; San Francisco against Seattle; The Giants against Dallas; and Green Bay and Baltimore.

PiRate NFL Playoff Speculation

 

In the NFC, New Orleans and Minnesota will be the top two seeds and get a bye.  The third and fourth seeds will be Dallas and Arizona.  We believe the Giants, Falcons, Packers,  and Eagles could all finish 9-7.  If the 49ers win this week at Seattle, they too could win nine games.  It’s a crapshoot to try to determine the tiebreakers with five weeks to go, but we’ll pencil in Green Bay and Philadelphia into those slots.

In the AFC, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, San Diego, and New England have all but wrapped up division titles.  Denver’s schedule gives them an excellent opportunity to get to 10 wins.  Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Houston, Jacksonville, the New York Jets, and even Tennessee all have shots at 9-7 records.  Again, picking one of these teams to win all the tiebreakers is more than we can do, so we’ll stick with Baltimore getting the last spot for now.

Opening Week

NFC

#3 Dallas vs. #6 Philadelphia

#4 Arizona vs. #5 Green Bay

 

AFC

#3 Cincinnati vs. #6 Baltimore

#4 New England vs. #5 Denver

 

Byes

NFC

#1 New Orleans

#2 Minnesota

 

AFC

#1 Indianapolis

#2 San Diego

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

               
               
 

NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas  102.6 103.7 105.4 8-3-0 255 182
Philadelphia  102.4 103.6 103.5 7-4-0 293 228
NY Giants 101.4 100.7 101.5 6-5-0 272 261
Washington  96.1 96.7 94.9 3-8-0 170 205
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 110.7 107.5 109.6 10-1-0 342 203
Green Bay 102.4 103.1 104.6 7-4-0 296 215
Chicago 96.4 97.6 95.7 4-7-0 216 261
Detroit 89.2 89.0 85.9 2-9-0 193 335
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 116.2 111.0 112.0 11-0-0 407 221
Atlanta 102.1 101.2 101.8 6-5-0 272 245
Carolina   97.8 97.8 96.6 4-7-0 199 256
Tampa Bay 91.5 93.1 91.4 1-10-0 181 314
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 103.4 103.0 104.2 7-4-0 267 217
San Francisco 99.9 100.2 99.3 5-6-0 228 213
Seattle 94.0 95.7 94.9 4-7-0 223 250
St. Louis 87.3 90.3 88.8 1-10-0 130 297
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 109.9 107.5 107.0 7-4-0 307 202
NY Jets 100.6 101.0 100.8 5-6-0 230 195
Miami 98.0 99.8 97.7 5-6-0 256 275
Buffalo 96.0 96.6 97.2 4-7-0 186 242
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 108.4 105.5 106.9 6-5-0 257 188
Pittsburgh 105.9 103.8 104.2 6-5-0 248 204
Cincinnati 102.6 102.8 104.0 8-3-0 231 174
Cleveland 89.1 90.2 87.4 1-10-0 122 279
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 111.4 108.3 109.2 11-0-0 304 184
Houston 102.1 101.9 101.3 5-6-0 259 243
Tennessee 101.7 100.7 102.8 5-6-0 229 289
Jacksonville 93.0 95.8 96.5 6-5-0 202 255
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 109.0 106.1 107.7 8-3-0 312 219
Denver 97.4 100.1 102.4 7-4-0 196 189
Kansas City 90.8 93.8 92.6 3-8-0 183 282
Oakland 90.7 91.9 92.2 3-8-0 115 258

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 13 = 2.6            
Vegas Line as of 6:00PM EDT Tuesday            
Thursday, December 3, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
New York Jets Buffalo (Toronto) 4.6 4.4 3.6 3    36 1/2
             
Sunday, December 6, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Denver KANSAS CITY 4.0 3.7 7.2 4 1/2 38   
PITTSBURGH Oakland 17.8 14.5 14.6 NL NL
Houston JACKSONVILLE 6.5 3.5 2.2 Pk 46 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS Tennessee 12.3 10.2 9.0 6 1/2 47   
ATLANTA Philadelphia 2.3 0.2 0.9 -6    44   
CINCINNATI Detroit 16.0 16.4 20.7 12 1/2 42 1/2
New Orleans WASHINGTON 17.5 11.7 14.5 9 1/2 47 1/2
CAROLINA Tampa Bay 8.9 7.3 7.8 6    40   
CHICAGO St. Louis 11.7 9.9 9.5 9 1/2 40 1/2
San Diego CLEVELAND 17.3 13.3 17.7 13    43   
San Francisco SEATTLE 3.3 1.9 1.8 Pk 41 1/2
NEW YORK GIANTS Dallas 1.4 -0.4 -1.3 -3    45 1/2
New England MIAMI 9.3 5.1 6.7 5    46 1/2
Minnesota ARIZONA 4.7 1.9 2.8 NL NL
             
Monday, December 7, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Baltimore GREEN BAY 3.4 -0.2 -0.3 3 1/2 43   

 

For College and NFL Picks Against the Spread, go to:

 

www.piratings.webs.com

 

November 24, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 12: November 26-30, 2009

Some Festive Games and Some Turkeys

We’ve arrived at Thanksgiving week, and the NFL season has become one of haves, have-nots, and mediocre teams.  The haves (New Orleans, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Cincinnati, San Diego, Arizona, and New England) figure to be the eight teams playing in the second round of the NFL playoffs. 

 The have-nots (Cleveland, Detroit, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Washington, Kansas City, Oakland, Seattle, and Buffalo) have nothing to play for at this point.  To wager on these teams, one must find a reason to believe these teams’ players will have a reason to give everything they’ve got.

 The 15 mediocre teams remaining are the ones competing for the final four playoff berths.  These are the teams that must be watched carefully as the stretch drive begins.  Be careful playing against one of these teams when they are playing a have or have-not.  They can be dangerous.

 This week presents some interesting contests.  On Thanksgiving night, the Denver-New York Giants game features two of the aforementioned mediocre teams.  A match-up of two mediocre teams in essence becomes a playoff elimination game.  The loser of this game has very little chance of recovering to make the playoffs this year.

 Indianapolis plays at Houston, and the Texans find their backs up against the wall.  After losing a close Monday night game, Houston is in a must-win position.

 Arizona plays at Tennessee, and if the Titans win this one to get to 5-6, they would have to be considered a dark horse candidate to finish 9-7 and sneak in as the final AFC Playoff team.  No NFL team has ever started a season at 0-6 and finished 8-8 must less 9-7.  The 1970 Cincinnati Bengals began the season 1-6 and won seven games in a row to win the AFC Central Division at 8-6.

 Baltimore and Pittsburgh face off in a blood and guts battle that could easily be a playoff elimination game.

 The Monday night game is the best MNF game of the year.  New England plays at New Orleans.  It could easily be a preview of the Super Bowl.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

 

           

 

             

 

NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Giants 103.6 102.6 103.8 6-4-0 266 235
Philadelphia  103.2 104.2 103.4 6-4-0 266 204
Dallas  102.1 103.8 103.1 7-3-0 231 175
Washington  95.3 95.7 95.3 3-7-0 146 178
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 109.2 106.7 108.7 9-1-0 306 193
Green Bay 101.1 102.4 103.2 6-4-0 262 203
Chicago 97.9 98.4 97.6 4-6-0 206 225
Detroit 90.4 89.1 88.2 2-8-0 181 301
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 114.1 110.1 111.0 10-0-0 369 204
Atlanta 103.1 102.3 101.8 5-5-0 252 228
Carolina   99.0 98.4 99.0 4-6-0 193 239
Tampa Bay 90.5 91.9 87.0 1-9-0 164 294
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 104.0 103.4 104.6 7-3-0 250 197
San Francisco 98.7 99.8 99.8 4-6-0 208 210
Seattle 93.3 95.3 93.1 3-7-0 196 233
St. Louis 88.0 91.1 91.2 1-9-0 113 270
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 112.0 109.1 108.6 7-3-0 290 164
Miami 100.1 101.4 101.6 5-5-0 242 244
NY Jets 99.4 100.7 100.2 4-6-0 213 189
Buffalo 93.9 94.1 92.9 3-7-0 155 228
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 108.8 105.7 104.8 5-5-0 237 171
Pittsburgh 105.5 103.9 104.4 6-4-0 231 184
Cincinnati 103.4 103.8 104.6 7-3-0 215 167
Cleveland 88.2 89.3 87.2 1-9-0 115 263
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 111.1 108.6 108.9 10-0-0 269 157
Houston 102.4 102.0 101.6 5-5-0 232 208
Tennessee 101.0 100.1 101.6 4-6-0 209 272
Jacksonville 94.0 96.4 100.0 6-4-0 199 235
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 107.6 105.2 106.3 7-3-0 269 205
Denver 95.1 98.3 98.8 6-4-0 170 183
Kansas City 92.2 94.6 94.5 3-7-0 169 239
Oakland 91.1 91.5 93.1 3-7-0 108 234

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 12 = 2.7            
Vegas Line as of 6:00PM EDT Tuesday            
Thursday, November 26, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Green Bay DETROIT 8.0 10.6 12.3 11    47 1/2
DALLAS Oakland 13.7 15.0 12.7 13 1/2 40   
DENVER New York Giants 5.8 1.6 2.3 -7    42   
             
Sunday, November 29, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Indianapolis HOUSTON 6.0 3.9 4.6 3    48   
CINCINNATI Cleveland 17.9 17.2 20.1 14    38 1/2
MINNESOTA Chicago 14.0 11.0 13.8 10 1/2 46 1/2
PHILADELPHIA Washington 10.6 11.2 10.8 9 1/2 40 1/2
Miami BUFFALO 3.5 4.6 6.0 3    39 1/2
Arizona TENNESSEE 0.3 0.6 0.3 2 1/2 46 1/2
Seattle ST. LOUIS 2.6 1.1 -0.8 3    42 1/2
ATLANTA Tampa Bay 15.3 13.1 17.5 12 1/2 46   
NEW YORK JETS Carolina 3.1 5.0 3.9 3    41 1/2
SAN FRANCISCO Jacksonville 7.4 6.1 2.5 3    41 1/2
SAN DIEGO Kansas City 18.1 13.3 15.5 13 1/2 45   
BALTIMORE Pittsburgh 6.0 4.5 3.1 2 1/2 39 1/2
             
Monday, November 30, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
NEW ORLEANS New England 4.8 3.7 5.1 3    56 1/2

 

November 17, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 11: November 19-23, 2009

Toilet Bowl Heads Schedule

 

Seldom do we get a chance to see the reverse of the Super Bowl in a given year, but this week presents the football fan with the Toilet Bowl.  The worst team in the NFC faces the worst team in the AFC when Cleveland plays Detroit.  The game features a Browns’ team that has trouble crossing midfield much less scoring against a Lions’ team that alternates from weak-to-weak whether they play like crap on offense or defense (or both).

 

In other games, the Indianapolis Colts could find it quite difficult keeping their undefeated mark intact.  Expect another tough game for Peyton Manning and company, when they visit Baltimore.  By now, the Colts returning to Baltimore shouldn’t be much of a story.

 

Several games this week will go a long way in deciding playoff contenders.  The losers in the Atlanta-New York Giants, Philadelphia-Chicago, Green Bay-San Francisco, and San Diego-Denver games will be on the outside, looking in.  Additionally, The Jets face a must-win game at New England, while both the Texans and Jaguars need to take care of business at home against the Titans and Bills respectively. 

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
               
               

 

NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Giants 103.8 102.1 102.3 5-4-0 232 204
Dallas 103.3 104.7 103.5 6-3-0 224 169
Philadelphia 103.8 104.7 104.6 5-3-0 219 153
Washington 93.0 92.6 93.4 2-6-0 113 154
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 106.5 105.6 107.3 8-1-0 271 184
Green Bay 100.7 102.0 101.2 5-4-0 232 179
Chicago 98.1 99.0 97.7 4-5-0 186 201
Detroit 90.7 89.4 88.9 1-8-0 143 264
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 112.4 109.1 109.8 9-0-0 331 197
Atlanta 102.9 102.5 101.8 5-4-0 221 194
Carolina   100.5 98.8 98.7 4-5-0 176 215
Tampa Bay 92.2 93.0 92.3 1-8-0 157 256
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 104.0 104.6 104.2 6-3-0 229 184
San Francisco 99.1 99.3 98.6 4-5-0 184 180
Seattle 96.0 96.4 96.2 3-6-0 187 198
St. Louis 88.0 90.4 91.6 1-8-0 100 249
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 111.5 107.8 108.7 6-3-0 259 150
NY Jets 99.9 100.8 100.2 4-5-0 199 158
Miami 98.6 100.6 99.3 4-5-0 218 227
Buffalo 94.1 94.8 93.7 3-6-0 140 210
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 108.9 105.4 104.7 5-4-0 222 154
Pittsburgh 108.2 105.4 105.8 6-3-0 207 157
Cincinnati 106.2 105.3 106.6 7-2-0 198 147
Cleveland 87.9 90.1 89.1 1-8-0 78 225
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 111.0 108.3 109.9 9-0-0 252 142
Houston 103.8 102.9 103.0 5-4-0 215 188
Tennessee 99.6 99.4 99.4 3-6-0 189 255
Jacksonville 93.8 96.6 98.8 5-4-0 181 220
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 104.5 102.8 105.1 6-3-0 237 202
Denver 98.2 100.5 101.0 6-3-0 167 151
Kansas City 89.5 93.5 93.1 2-7-0 142 215
Oakland 88.3 90.3 91.0 2-7-0 88 217

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 11 = 2.5            
Vegas Line as of 5:30PM EDT Tuesday            
Thursday, November 19, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
CAROLINA Miami 4.4 0.7 1.9 3    43   
             
Sunday, November 22, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
DETROIT Cleveland 5.3 1.8 2.3 3 1/2 38 1/2
JACKSONVILLE Buffalo 2.2 4.3 7.6 8 1/2 42 1/2
Pittsburgh KANSAS CITY 16.2 9.4 10.2 10    40 1/2
BALTIMORE Indianapolis 0.4 -0.4 -2.7 1    44 1/2
N Y GIANTS Atlanta 3.4 2.0 3.1 6 1/2 46   
GREEN BAY San Francisco 4.1 5.2 5.1 6 1/2 42 1/2
MINNESOTA Seattle 13.0 11.7 13.6 11    46   
DALLAS Washington 11.7 12.2 11.1 11    41 1/2
New Orleans TAMPA BAY 17.7 13.6 15.0 11    51   
Arizona ST. LOUIS 13.5 11.7 10.1 9    46 1/2
NEW ENGLAND N Y Jets 14.1 9.5 11.0 10    45   
Cincinnati OAKLAND 15.4 12.5 13.1 9 1/2 36   
San Diego DENVER 3.8 -0.2 1.6 NL NL
Philadelphia CHICAGO 2.4 2.3 2.4 3    45   
             
Monday, November 23, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
HOUSTON Tennessee 6.7 6.1 5.2 4 1/2 47 1/2

 

Playoff Projections

 

NFC

 

Atlanta at Arizona

Dallas at New York Giants

 

New Orleans vs. Lower Remaining Seed

Minnesota vs. Higher Remaining Seed

 

AFC

 

Houston at Cincinnati

Pittsburgh at New England

 

Indianapolis vs. Lower Remaining Seed

San Diego vs. Higher Remaining Seed

November 10, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week 10: November 12-16, 2009

Introducing NFL Playoff Projections

 

If you are a college football fan, you probably have seen multiple Internet sites showing weekly bowl projections.  Maybe, you’ve even seen ours.  Why not have NFL playoff projections?  Unlike college football, the NFL playoff rules are always known.  The best two division winners in both leagues receive byes, while the third best division winners host the lowest qualifying wildcards, and the fourth best division winners host the wildcard with the better records.

 

So, beginning today, we will list our projections.  This will not be one of those “if the playoffs started today lists; it will be projections based on where we believe every team will finish.

 

Let’s start with the AFC.  In the East, we believe New England already has clinched the division title and will finish with the second best record among the four division winners.

 

In the South, we believe Indianapolis could win the division by five or more games and secure home field advantage.

 

The North is still very much up for grabs, but the way Pittsburgh is playing these days, they could very well finish 12-4 or better. 

 

In the West, Denver may be swooning once again.  San Diego’s running game has abandoned them, but the passing of Phillip Rivers may be enough to overtake the Broncos.

 

Cincinnati should win enough games to grab one wildcard spot, but the other spot should go down to the final week before it is decided.  Baltimore has a tough schedule, and we believe the Ravens will fall a game short.  Denver and the New York Jets both have great shots at 10 wins.  We’ll give the edge to the Jets.

 

So, as of today, we see the Jets visiting Pittsburgh, and the Bengals visiting San Diego in the opening playoff weekend.  The higher remaining seed will play at New England the following week, and the lower remaining seed will play at Indianapolis.

 

In the NFC, Dallas sure looks like the cream of the East.  Don’t count out the Eagles or Giants, but the Cowboys could easily finish 12-4.

 

New Orleans already has the South race in hand.  Whether they can go 16-0 is no matter, because at 13-3, they should still have the best record in the conference.

 

Minnesota has a three-game lead on the Bears and Packers, and only another Brett Favre injury could prevent the Vikings from winning the North Division.

 

Arizona may have to fight off a late rush by San Francisco or Seattle, but we believe the Cardinals will repeat in the West.

 

Philadelphia and the Giants will jockey it out with one team winning 10 and the other winning nine.  For now, we’ll go with the Eagles as the lucky 10-win team.  We think Atlanta will win 10 games as well and take the top Wildcard spot.

 

That leaves Philadelphia visiting Arizona and Atlanta playing at Dallas in the opening round of the playoffs.  The higher remaining seed will play at Minnesota, while the lower remaining seed goes to New Orleans.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
               
               
Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Dallas 104.4 106.2 105.6 6-2-0 217 152
Philadelphia 103.8 104.7 104.6 5-3-0 219 153
NY Giants 103.8 102.1 102.3 5-4-0 232 204
Washington 93.0 92.6 93.4 2-6-0 113 154
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 106.5 105.8 106.6 7-1-0 244 174
Green Bay 99.6 99.5 100.3 4-4-0 215 172
Chicago 98.6 98.2 99.9 4-4-0 180 191
Detroit 90.7 88.2 86.7 1-7-0 133 237
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 114.1 112.5 111.2 8-0-0 303 174
Atlanta 104.3 104.2 104.0 5-3-0 202 166
Carolina   99.1 98.2 97.5 3-5-0 148 196
Tampa Bay 91.4 91.9 91.1 1-7-0 134 231
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 103.8 104.3 103.3 5-3-0 198 164
San Francisco 98.6 98.6 98.1 3-5-0 174 174
Seattle 96.2 96.6 96.6 3-5-0 167 167
St. Louis 86.3 87.5 91.1 1-7-0 77 221
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 111.5 108.8 108.7 6-2-0 225 115
NY Jets 101.5 102.9 101.4 4-4-0 177 134
Miami 99.4 102.8 99.7 3-5-0 193 204
Buffalo 96.3 96.2 96.0 3-5-0 123 169
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Pittsburgh 109.4 106.8 106.7 6-2-0 195 139
Baltimore 108.8 105.6 104.6 4-4-0 206 154
Cincinnati 105.0 105.2 105.5 6-2-0 180 135
Cleveland 88.0 89.4 88.2 1-7-0 78 209
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 111.0 108.7 108.0 8-0-0 217 108
Houston 103.8 102.9 103.0 5-4-0 215 188
Tennessee 97.4 97.0 98.2 2-6-0 148 238
Jacksonville 92.2 94.6 97.3 4-4-0 157 198
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 103.7 102.3 104.1 5-3-0 206 179
Denver 99.3 103.1 103.4 6-2-0 150 124
Oakland 89.3 90.8 91.7 2-6-0 78 201
Kansas City 88.5 91.9 91.2 1-7-0 126 205

 

This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 10 = 2.4            
Vegas Line as of 8:30PM EDT Tuesday            
Thursday, November 12, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
SAN FRANCISCO Chicago 2.4 3.0 0.6 3    43 1/2
             
Sunday, November 15, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
NEW YORK JETS Jacksonville 11.7 10.7 6.5 7    40   
Denver WASHINGTON 3.9 8.1 7.6 3 1/2 36 1/2
PITTSBURGH Cincinnati 6.8 4.0 3.6 7    41 1/2
TENNESSEE Buffalo 3.5 3.2 4.6 6 1/2 40 1/2
MINNESOTA Detroit 18.2 20.0 22.3 16 1/2 47 1/2
New Orleans ST. LOUIS 25.4 22.6 17.7 13 1/2 50   
Atlanta CAROLINA 2.8 3.6 4.1 2    44 1/2
MIAMI Tampa Bay 10.4 13.3 11.0 10    44   
OAKLAND Kansas City 3.2 1.3 2.9 2    36 1/2
ARIZONA Seattle 10.0 10.1 9.1 8 1/2 47   
SAN DIEGO Philadelphia 2.3 0.0 1.9 2    47   
Dallas GREEN BAY 2.4 4.3 2.9 3    47 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS New England 1.9 2.3 1.7 3    49 1/2
             
Monday, November 16, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
Baltimore CLEVELAND 18.4 13.8 14.0 10 1/2 40    

November 3, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Nine: November 8-9, 2009

Five Key Intra-Divisional Games Highlight Week

 

Week nine finds five key intra-divisional games as well as three other inter-divisional spectaculars.  Cincinnati beat the Ravens in Baltimore earlier in the season, and if the Bengals complete the sweep, Baltimore will find its playoff hopes beginning to dim.

 

Houston visits Indianapolis, and if the Colts win, they will be up four games at the halfway point of the season.  Should the Texans find a way to pull off the upset, Coach Gary Kubiak’s squad will climb to the top of the Wildcard bubble.

 

New England hosts Miami, and the Patriots are coming off a bye week.  A New England win will virtually clinch the AFC East title, but a Dolphin win throws the race open once again.

 

Carolina visits New Orleans in a game that looks like another easy win for the Saints.  However, the Panthers won at Arizona last week, and they could climb back in the playoff race with an upset.

 

Dallas visits Philadelphia, and to the winner goes first place in the NFC East.  It should be an exciting Sunday night game with scoring aplenty.

 

The other three big games are Arizona at Chicago, San Diego at New York (Giants), and Pittsburgh at Denver on Monday night.  All six of these teams are jockeying for playoff positioning.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings
Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Philadelphia 104.6 105.0 104.9 5-2-0 203 133
NY Giants 104.2 102.8 102.0 5-3-0 212 183
Dallas 103.6 104.8 104.7 5-2-0 197 136
Washington 93.0 92.9 92.4 2-5-0 96 123
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 106.5 105.9 106.6 7-1-0 244 174
Green Bay 102.8 102.5 102.8 4-3-0 187 134
Chicago 100.9 100.8 101.5 4-3-0 159 150
Detroit 91.3 89.6 89.0 1-6-0 113 205
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 114.6 112.5 112.0 7-0-0 273 154
Atlanta 104.3 104.2 104.1 4-3-0 171 149
Carolina   98.6 96.7 97.8 3-4-0 128 166
Tampa Bay 88.2 89.7 87.2 0-7-0 96 203
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 101.5 102.3 101.3 4-3-0 157 143
San Francisco 101.1 100.7 102.1 3-4-0 147 140
Seattle 95.6 96.9 96.7 2-5-0 135 147
St. Louis 86.3 87.9 90.6 1-7-0 77 221
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 111.7 108.3 108.8 5-2-0 198 98
NY Jets 101.5 103.3 100.9 4-4-0 177 134
Miami 99.2 102.5 102.1 3-4-0 176 177
Buffalo 96.3 96.2 98.5 3-5-0 123 169
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 110.5 107.1 107.1 4-3-0 199 137
Pittsburgh 107.3 104.3 105.9 5-2-0 167 129
Cincinnati 103.3 103.4 104.3 5-2-0 163 128
Cleveland 88.0 90.4 85.5 1-7-0 78 209
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 111.7 108.2 109.9 7-0-0 197 91
Houston 103.1 102.0 103.4 5-3-0 198 168
Tennessee 94.9 94.9 94.3 1-6-0 114 211
Jacksonville 92.4 94.6 96.8 3-4-0 133 177
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 103.3 101.9 104.0 4-3-0 185 159
Denver 101.4 105.3 104.9 6-1-0 140 96
Oakland 89.3 90.6 89.9 2-6-0 78 201
Kansas City 88.3 92.2 88.3 1-6-0 105 181

 

This Week’s Games

 

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 9 = 2.3            
Vegas Line as of 5:30PM EDT Tuesday            
Sunday, November 8, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals

 

JACKSONVILLE Kansas City 6.4 4.7 10.8 6    42   

 

Baltimore CINCINNATI 4.9 1.4 0.5 3    44   

 

INDIANAPOLIS Houston 10.9 8.5 8.8 9    47 1/2

 

ATLANTA Washington 13.6 13.6 14.0 10 ½ 41 1/2

 

Green Bay TAMPA BAY 12.3 10.5 13.3 10    43 1/2

 

CHICAGO Arizona 1.7 0.8 2.5 3    44   

 

NEW ENGLAND Miami 14.8 8.1 9.0 10 1/2 46 1/2

 

NEW ORLEANS Carolina 18.3 18.1 16.5 13 1/2 51 1/2

 

SEATTLE Detroit 6.6 9.6 10.0 10    43   

 

SAN FRANCISCO Tennessee 8.5 8.1 10.1 4    41   

 

NEW YORK GIANTS San Diego 3.2 3.2 0.3 5    47 1/2

 

PHILADELPHIA Dallas 3.3 2.5 2.5 3    47 1/2

 

             

 

             

 

             

 

             

 

Monday, November 9, 2009            

 

Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals

 

Pittsburgh DENVER 3.6 -3.3 -1.3 3    39 1/2

 

October 27, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Eight: November 1-2, 2009

All Eyes On The Frozen Tundra

Favre Returns to Green Bay

 

The date has been circled on thousands of calendars in the Badger state since August.  Rumors have it that almost three dozen hotel and motel rooms were reserved by friends and family even before the announcement had been made that Brett Favre was indeed signing with the Minnesota Vikings.  It’s finally here!  Favre returns to Lambeau Field for the first time since he left the Packers.  The last pass he threw at Lambeau was intercepted by New York Giants defensive back Corey Webster.  It broke the hearts of 73,000 fans who were all sure Green Bay was headed to the Super Bowl.

The Minnesota Vikings have many thousand loyal fans in Wisconsin. Near the town of Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin, is the Half-Way Bar.  It supposedly sits equidistant from Lambeau Field and the old Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington, where the Vikings played before moving into the Metrodome (It is now the location of the Mall of America).  The eastern half of this bar is painted Green and Gold, while the western half of this bar is painted purple and white.  The patrons sip on Leininkugel’s beer, eat brats and fried cheese curds, and carry on like the other half of the bar doesn’t exist.  Well, at least that’s so until a Packer fan yells out something about the “ViQueens.”  Then, it becomes the Hatfield’s and McCoy’s bar.

Almost overlooked by the rivalry is the fact that this game is very important in the standings.  A Green Bay win moves the Packers just ½ game behind Minnesota.  A Viking win gives them a 2 ½ game lead plus a sweep over Green Bay.  How do the PiRate, Mean, and Bias Ratings see this game?  Look below; it’s should be one worth watching even if you have to go to the Half-Way Bar to do so.

Will this game be one of our picks against the spread this week?  It will cost you just $5 to get all of our picks.  Go to www.piratings.webs.com to purchase our picks for the week.  If you played with us last week, then our picks made you happy as they finished 8-2-1.  

NFC East
PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
NY Giants 105.5 105.0 105.9 5-2-0 195 143
Philadelphia 103.3 102.6 103.1 4-2-0 163 116
Dallas 102.7 104.3 104.6 4-2-0 159 119
Washington 93.0 93.1 92.0 2-5-0 96 123
               
NFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Minnesota 105.6 104.5 107.0 6-1-0 206 148
Green Bay 103.7 105.3 105.6 4-2-0 161 96
Chicago 100.2 99.6 98.9 3-3-0 129 144
Detroit 93.0 90.5 92.1 1-5-0 103 188
               
NFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New Orleans 115.0 113.5 113.7 6-0-0 238 127
Atlanta 103.9 102.4 103.8 4-2-0 144 114
Carolina   96.8 94.2 94.8 2-4-0 94 145
Tampa Bay 88.2 89.5 89.1 0-7-0 96 203
               
NFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Arizona 103.3 104.5 105.3 4-2-0 136 109
San Francisco 100.3 100.4 99.1 3-3-0 133 122
Seattle 96.5 97.6 96.0 2-4-0 118 109
St. Louis 84.9 86.5 86.1 0-7-0 60 211
               
AFC East PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
New England 111.7 108.8 109.7 5-2-0 198 98
NY Jets 102.0 104.1 101.4 4-3-0 152 104
Miami 98.7 101.9 99.7 2-4-0 146 152
Buffalo 97.6 97.3 96.7 3-4-0 113 138
               
AFC North PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Baltimore 109.3 105.2 103.1 3-3-0 169 130
Pittsburgh 107.3 104.7 107.4 5-2-0 167 129
Cincinnati 103.3 103.1 104.5 5-2-0 163 128
Cleveland 88.7 90.9 89.5 1-6-0 72 179
               
AFC South PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
Indianapolis 112.5 109.8 111.8 6-0-0 179 77
Houston 101.8 99.8 101.1 4-3-0 167 158
Tennessee 93.7 93.3 90.4 0-6-0 84 198
Jacksonville 93.6 96.7 96.4 3-3-0 120 147
               
AFC West PiRate Mean Biased W-L-T Pts Opp
San Diego 104.0 101.7 101.9 3-3-0 161 143
Denver 102.6 108.2 108.3 6-0-0 133 66
Oakland 88.6 89.6 91.0 2-5-0 62 177
Kansas City 88.3 91.5 90.1 1-6-0 105 181
This Week’s Games
Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
             
HFA for Week 7 = 2.2            
Vegas Line as of 4:30PM EDT Tuesday            
Sunday, November 1, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
BALTIMORE Denver 8.9 -0.8 -3.0 3 1/2 42   
CHICAGO Cleveland 13.7 10.9 11.6 13 1/2 40   
Houston BUFFALO 2.0 0.3 2.2 3    41 1/2
GREEN BAY Minnesota 0.3 3.0 0.8 3    47 1/2
INDIANAPOLIS San Francisco 14.4 11.6 14.9 12    43 1/2
NEW YORK JETS Miami 5.7 4.4 3.9 3    40 1/2
DETROIT St. Louis 10.3 6.2 8.2 NL NL
DALLAS Seattle 8.4 8.9 10.8 9 1/2 46   
SAN DIEGO Oakland 17.6 14.3 13.1 16 1/2 41 1/2
TENNESSEE Jacksonville 2.3 -1.2 -3.8 3    44 1/2
ARIZONA Carolina 8.7 12.5 12.7 9 1/2 41   
PHILADELPHIA New York Giants 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 1 1/2 44   
             
             
             
             
Monday, November 2, 2009            
Favorite Underdog PiRate Mean Bias Vegas Totals
NEW ORLEANS Atlanta 13.3 13.3 12.1 10    54 1/2

October 20, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Seven: October 25-26, 2009

Vikings-Steelers Headline The Week

 

Brett Favre is the modern day Y.A. Tittle.  Tittle was considered over-the-hill and washed up after 1960.  After playing three years with the Baltimore Colts, two of them in the old All American Football Conference, Tittle spent 10 years with the San Francisco 49ers.  In 1960, John Brodie took his job away.  Tittle went to the New York Giants for the 1961 season and spent four years starting as their quarterback.  His record as a starter for the Giants his first three years was 31-5-1, and his best statistical season was 1963 at the age of 37, when he led the NFL with a 104.8 passer rating.  Tittle led the Giants to the NFL Championship Game all three of those years.

 

History lesson over.  Favre is three years older now than Tittle was in 1963, but through six games, he is having his best year statistically in his career.  His 109.5 passer rating is almost 10 points higher than his previous best.  He’s completing nearly 70% of his passes, and he has 12 touchdown strikes to just two interceptions.

 

His counterpart Sunday, Ben Roethlisberger, is also off to his best ever start in the NFL.  His 104.5 Passer Rating looks all the more impressive when you throw in he is leading the AFC in passing yards. 

 

This should be quite an entertaining game this week, and who know?  We could be watching a preview of the Super Bowl. 

 

The other big game this week is New Orleans at Miami.  It’s awfully early in the season, but the Dolphins have quite a history for ending opposing teams’ undefeated seasons.  Miami is playing sound ball after beginning the season with three tough losses.  The Dolphins benefit from having an extra week to prepare for this game, and it’s their style of play that could put keep Drew Brees on the sideline longer than he needs to stay sharp.

 

We here wonder how the New England Patriots will be received in London.  Will the fans at Wembly Stadium cheer for the team with the word “England” in their title, or will they boo a team with the nickname of “Patriots?”  It won’t affect the game, because the team with the name “Tampa Bay” could hire Tony Blair or Gordon Brown as coach and perform no worse than they have to date.  Too bad the Bucs don’t play St. Louis or Tennessee.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC East

 

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

NY Giants

107.6

106.3

106.6

5-1-0

178

119

Philadelphia 

103.0

103.3

103.3

3-2-0

136

99

Dallas  

99.7

102.4

102.4

3-2-0

122

98

Washington

93.3

93.7

91.6

2-4-0

79

96

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Minnesota

106.4

105.4

107.4

6-0-0

189

121

Chicago  

103.0

103.3

103.3

3-2-0

119

99

Green Bay

101.5

101.9

103.3

3-2-0

130

93

Detroit  

93.0

91.6

93.5

1-5-0

103

188

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New Orleans

113.8

112.2

111.4

5-0-0

192

93

Atlanta  

106.6

105.1

105.6

4-1-0

123

77

Carolina  

98.4

96.0

97.3

2-3-0

85

125

Tampa Bay

88.9

91.3

86.6

0-6-0

89

168

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Arizona  

100.9

103.5

103.5

3-2-0

112

92

San Francisco

100.5

100.2

101.6

3-2-0

112

98

Seattle  

96.5

98.4

98.0

2-4-0

118

109

St. Louis  

87.9

87.4

88.7

0-6-0

54

169

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New England

111.0

107.2

107.5

4-2-0

163

91

NY Jets  

99.6

101.2

100.4

3-3-0

114

104

Miami

98.8

100.9

100.4

2-3-0

112

106

Buffalo  

96.0

96.4

95.7

2-4-0

93

129

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Baltimore

109.3

104.8

103.6

3-3-0

169

130

Pittsburgh

106.2

103.3

105.1

4-2-0

140

112

Cincinnati

100.5

99.9

102.1

4-2-0

118

118

Cleveland

91.4

93.2

92.3

1-5-0

69

148

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Indianapolis

110.0

108.6

109.6

5-0-0

137

71

Houston  

101.6

99.3

100.4

3-3-0

143

137

Tennessee

93.7

93.9

89.9

0-6-0

84

198

Jacksonville

93.6

96.8

95.3

3-3-0

120

147

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Denver  

102.6

105.6

106.1

6-0-0

133

66

San Diego

101.7

100.5

101.9

2-3-0

124

136

Oakland  

91.5

91.8

92.1

2-4-0

62

139

Kansas City

91.1

94.2

93.7

1-5-0

98

144

This Week’s Games

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
   

 

 

 

 

 

HFA for Week 7 = 2.7    

 

 

 

 

Vegas Line as of 7:30PM EDT Tuesday  

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, October 25, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

San Diego KANSAS CITY

7.9

3.6

5.5

5 1/2

44   

Indianapolis ST. LOUIS

19.4

18.5

17.9

13   

45   

CINCINNATI Chicago

0.2

-0.7

1.5

1 1/2

41 1/2

Green Bay CLEVELAND

7.4

6.0

8.3

7   

41 1/2

PITTSBURGH Minnesota

2.5

0.6

0.4

4   

45   

New England     (N) Tampa Bay

22.1

15.9

20.9

15   

45   

HOUSTON San Francisco

3.8

1.8

1.5

3   

44   

New York Jets OAKLAND

5.4

6.7

5.6

6   

34 1/2

CAROLINA Buffalo

5.1

2.3

4.3

NL

NL

New Orleans MIAMI

12.3

8.3

7.9

6   

47   

Atlanta DALLAS

4.2

0.0

0.5

-4   

47 1/2

NEW YORK GIANTS Arizona

9.4

5.5

5.8

7   

46   

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, October 26, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

Philadelphia WASHINGTON

7.0

6.9

9.0

7   

37 1/2

October 13, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Six: October 18-19, 2009

NFL Week 6—Three Games Worth Watching

 

As we start the middle third of the NFL season, three week six games are worth noting.  The New Orleans Saints host the New York Giants in a battle of unbeaten teams.  With recent parity in the league, there haven’t been many recent matchups of unbeaten teams in week six.  In 2007, New England, on its way to a 16-0 regular season record, disposed of undefeated Dallas in week six.  Then, a few weeks later, the Patriots met an undefeated Indianapolis team and won.  

 

The Baltimore Ravens are facing a 3-3 record after beginning 3-0 if they cannot handle Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, and company at the Metrodome.  If the Vikings win, it will be their first 6-0 record since 1998, when they finished 15-1.

 

The Chicago Bears, coming off a bye week play at Atlanta.  The Falcons are fresh off a slaughter of the San Francisco 49ers.  The winner of this battle of 3-1 teams will have a leg up in the standings for a possible wildcard spot if neither can overtake their undefeated intra-divisional rivals.

 

There are potentially five really crappy ballgames this week.  Any and all five could see the favorite winning by three to five touchdowns.  Pittsburgh hosts a Cleveland team that can do little more than pass the ball to the line of scrimmage.  Jacksonville hosts St. Louis; if the Rams lose big in this one, they may be worse than last year’s Lions.  Oakland hosts Philadelphia.  The Raiders lost by 37 to the Giants last week and enjoy virtually no home field advantage any more.  If the Eagles come ready for slaughter, they could hang half a hundred on the Raiders this week.  The hapless Bills must face an angry Jets team at The Meadowlands.  If Buffalo couldn’t beat Cleveland when Derek Anderson completed just two of 17 passes, how will they stop the Jets’ potent and balanced offense?  New England is looking to take out their frustrations on somebody after letting one slip away in the cold Rocky Mountain air at Denver.  Lucky for the Patriots, they get an 0-5 Tennessee team that has no pass defense and appears to be ready to mail it in the rest of the season.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

NY Giants

109.4

107.6

108.7

5-0-0

151

71

Philadelphia 

105.8

105.8

107.0

3-1-0

127

86

Dallas

99.7

102.5

100.9

3-2-0

122

98

Washington

94.4

95.4

94.2

2-3-0

73

82

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Minnesota

105.8

105.4

106.9

5-0-0

156

90

Chicago

103.5

103.7

104.3

3-1-0

105

78

Green Bay

99.9

100.5

101.2

2-2-0

104

93

Detroit

94.6

93.0

95.0

1-4-0

103

162

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New Orleans

112.0

110.5

110.4

4-0-0

144

66

Atlanta

106.1

104.1

104.9

3-1-0

102

63

Carolina  

98.3

96.3

95.2

1-3-0

57

104

Tampa Bay

89.0

92.4

89.6

0-5-0

68

140

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Francisco

100.5

99.9

101.1

3-2-0

112

98

Seattle

99.2

100.7

99.8

2-3-0

115

82

Arizona

98.2

100.5

100.2

2-2-0

85

89

St. Louis

86.8

86.6

85.6

0-5-0

34

146

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New England

107.7

104.9

105.4

3-2-0

104

91

NY Jets

101.6

102.8

103.7

3-2-0

101

88

Miami

98.8

100.9

100.4

2-3-0

112

106

Buffalo

94.0

94.6

93.4

1-4-0

77

116

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Baltimore

109.9

104.5

105.8

3-2-0

138

97

Pittsburgh

106.4

103.9

103.7

3-2-0

113

98

Cincinnati

102.1

101.5

104.8

4-1-0

101

90

Cleveland

91.2

93.2

92.5

1-4-0

55

121

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Indianapolis

110.0

108.6

109.6

5-0-0

137

71

Houston

100.0

97.2

98.1

2-3-0

115

120

Tennessee

97.0

96.5

93.8

0-5-0

84

139

Jacksonville

94.7

98.2

97.9

2-3-0

97

127

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Diego

103.6

101.5

102.7

2-2-0

101

102

Denver

100.7

104.0

105.6

5-0-0

99

43

Kansas City

90.0

93.1

90.5

0-5-0

84

138

Oakland

88.7

89.7

87.1

1-4-0

49

130

 

This Week’s Games

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
   

 

 

 

 

 

HFA for Week 6 = 2.7    

 

 

 

 

Vegas Line as of 1:30PM Tuesday  

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, October 18, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

WASHINGTON Kansas City

7.1

5.0

6.4

6 1/2

37   

CINCINNATI Houston

4.8

7.0

9.4

5 1/2

45 1/2

PITTSBURGH Cleveland

17.9

13.4

13.9

14   

38   

Baltimore MINNESOTA

1.4

-3.6

-3.8

2 1/2

43 1/2

JACKSONVILLE St. Louis

10.6

14.3

15.0

9 1/2

42   

NEW ORLEANS New York Giants

5.3

5.6

4.4

3   

48   

Carolina TAMPA BAY

6.6

1.2

2.9

3 1/2

40   

GREEN BAY Detroit

8.0

10.2

8.9

13 1/2

48 1/2

Philadelphia OAKLAND

14.4

13.4

17.2

14   

40 1/2

SEATTLE Arizona

3.7

2.9

2.3

2 1/2

47   

NEW YORK JETS Buffalo

10.3

10.9

13.0

10   

38   

NEW ENGLAND Tennessee

13.4

11.1

14.3

9   

43 1/2

ATLANTA Chicago

5.3

3.1

3.3

3   

46   

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, October 19, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

SAN DIEGO Denver

5.6

0.2

-0.2

4   

44   

October 6, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Five: October 11-12, 2009

Week five in the NFL finds three excellent games on the schedule.  Who would have thought that the Baltimore-Cincinnati game would be a contest with first place on the line?  Atlanta visits San Francisco in a battle where the winner will be in great shape for qualifying for the playoffs, even this early in the season.  Denver hosts New England in a game that will definitely affect the playoff race.  If the Broncos sit at 5-0 on Monday morning, you can go ahead and make playoff plans if you live in Denver.  The Broncos have five very winnable games left on the schedule, and 10-6 will win the AFC West.

 

The PiRate Picks against the spread (find them at www.piratings.webs.com), finished 8-4 last week, making our record for the year 25-15-1.  In the last three weeks, our winning percentage has been a sizzling 72% against the spread (18-7-0).

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

NY Giants

108.1

106.7

107.3

4-0-0

107

64

Philadelphia 

105.8

105.4

105.7

2-1-0

94

72

Dallas   

100.3

102.8

101.1

2-2-0

96

78

Washington

94.2

95.4

96.9

2-2-0

56

62

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Minnesota

105.0

105.2

105.8

4-0-0

118

80

Chicago  

103.5

103.5

103.7

3-1-0

105

78

Green Bay

99.9

101.1

101.3

2-2-0

104

93

Detroit  

93.8

92.0

92.8

1-3-0

83

134

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New Orleans

112.0

112.5

109.3

4-0-0

144

66

Atlanta  

103.6

99.1

103.1

2-1-0

57

53

Carolina  

98.5

94.7

97.3

0-3-0

37

87

Tampa Bay

89.0

91.3

90.5

0-4-0

54

107

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Francisco

103.0

103.5

104.8

3-1-0

102

53

Arizona  

97.7

100.2

99.4

1-2-0

57

68

Seattle  

95.7

97.3

97.9

1-3-0

74

82

St. Louis  

87.6

87.0

84.0

0-4-0

24

108

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New England

108.3

104.4

106.6

3-1-0

87

71

NY Jets  

102.6

104.2

105.1

3-1-0

74

57

Miami  

97.8

99.9

99.7

1-3-0

81

79

Buffalo  

96.2

95.9

96.2

1-3-0

74

110

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Baltimore

110.1

106.6

107.1

3-1-0

124

80

Pittsburgh

107.2

104.5

105.2

2-2-0

85

78

Cincinnati

100.3

100.0

101.7

3-1-0

84

76

Cleveland

89.8

91.5

89.2

0-4-0

49

118

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Indianapolis

107.5

109.5

107.8

4-0-0

106

62

Houston  

100.5

97.8

100.1

2-2-0

94

92

Tennessee

99.5

97.7

96.6

0-4-0

75

108

Jacksonville

98.2

101.5

100.4

2-2-0

97

86

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Diego

103.6

100.7

101.9

2-2-0

101

102

Denver  

100.1

105.4

104.3

4-0-0

79

26

Oakland  

90.8

90.5

90.1

1-3-0

42

86

Kansas City

89.4

92.5

87.2

0-4-0

64

112

 

Vegas Lines Shown as of 7PM ET Tuesday

This Week’s Games

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
   

 

 

 

 

 

HFA for Week 5 = 2.9  

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, October 11, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

Minnesota ST. LOUIS

14.5

15.3

18.9

10   

40   

Dallas KANSAS CITY

8.0

7.4

11.0

8 1/2

42 ½

CAROLINA Washington

7.2

2.2

3.3

3 1/2

37    

PHILADELPHIA Tampa Bay

19.7

17.0

18.1

14   

43 ½

N Y GIANTS Oakland

20.2

19.1

20.1

16   

39 ½

BUFFALO Cleveland

9.3

7.3

9.9

6   

40 ½

BALTIMORE Cincinnati

12.7

9.5

8.3

8 1/2

42   

Pittsburgh DETROIT

16.3

15.4

15.3

10 1/2

44   

SAN FRANCISCO Atlanta

2.3

7.3

4.6

2 1/2

40 1/2

New England DENVER

5.3

-3.9

-0.6

3   

41   

ARIZONA Houston

0.1

5.3

2.2

5 1/2

48   

SEATTLE Jacksonville

0.4

-0.7

0.4

NL

NL

Indianapolis TENNESSEE

5.1

8.9

8.3

3 1/2

45 1/2

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, October 12, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

N y Jets MIAMI

1.9

1.4

2.5

1 1/2

36   

September 29, 2009

PiRate Ratings and Spreads For NFL Week Four: October 4-5, 2009

NFL Playoff Picture Coming More Into Focus After Just Three Weeks

 

The PiRate Picks finished 6-1 Last Week—Go to www.piratings.webs.com to sign up for this week’s picks (deadline: 7PM Eastern Time Wednesdays)

 

Usually after three weeks, there are about three 3-0 teams and three 0-3 teams left in the NFL.  There are still seven undefeated teams and seven winless teams.  It looks like some of the playoff races are already on their way to being decided.

 

In the NFC, Tampa Bay and Carolina have already played themselves out of playoff contention.  St. Louis, Washington, and Detroit never had a chance, and Arizona and Seattle don’t appear to have it this year.  Six of the remaining nine teams will play in the postseason.  Count the Giants, Eagles, Saints, 49ers, and Vikings as clear-cut favorites for five of those spots.  The race for the final spot is between Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, and Dallas.

 

In the AFC, count out Kansas City, Oakland, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Houston, Cleveland, Miami, and Buffalo.  Indianapolis just about has the South title secured.  It’s doubtful that any other AFC South team will qualify as a wildcard.  The Patriots and Jets should both qualify from the East, and Baltimore should qualify out of the North.  Pittsburgh has lost both games since the injury of Troy Polamalu, and both losses came from a breakdown in the secondary.  The Steelers could finish at 9-7 and be on the outside looking in.  Cincinnati is one freak play away from being 3-0, and the Bengals could take advantage of a softer schedule to sneak through with a 9-7 record.  9-7 may not qualify, because in the West Division, Denver and San Diego should both go 4-0 against their two weak sisters and both win double digit games.

 

Here’s a look at this week’s PiRate, Mean, and Biased Ratings, as well as the schedule of games with the spreads.

 

Current NFL PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bitmap

NFC East

 

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

NY Giants

107.8

106.5

106.2

3-0-0

80

48

Philadelphia

105.8

105.7

105.1

2-1-0

94

72

Dallas

100.6

103.4

101.8

2-1-0

86

61

Washington

94.7

96.5

94.7

1-2-0

40

49

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Minnesota

104.8

104.4

104.6

3-0-0

88

57

Chicago

103.2

102.1

102.6

2-1-0

57

54

Green Bay

100.1

100.9

101.8

2-1-0

81

63

Detroit

94.1

93.3

95.2

1-2-0

59

86

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New Orleans

111.5

109.8

108.5

3-0-0

120

56

Atlanta

103.6

100.2

102.6

2-1-0

57

53

Carolina  

98.5

95.7

96.2

0-3-0

37

87

Tampa Bay

88.5

92.6

91.5

0-3-0

41

91

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

NFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Francisco

102.1

102.4

103.1

2-1-0

67

53

Arizona

97.7

100.1

99.9

1-2-0

57

68

Seattle

96.8

97.8

98.4

1-2-0

57

48

St. Louis

88.5

88.8

88.9

0-3-0

24

73

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC East

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

New England

107.7

104.3

104.9

2-1-0

60

50

NY Jets

103.1

104.2

104.5

3-0-0

64

33

Buffalo

97.6

98.2

99.8

1-2-0

64

72

Miami

96.4

96.9

97.2

0-3-0

43

69

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC North

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Baltimore

110.7

107.2

107.0

3-0-0

103

53

Pittsburgh

106.1

103.5

103.2

1-2-0

47

50

Cincinnati

100.8

100.3

101.2

2-1-0

61

56

Cleveland

89.3

91.2

88.4

0-3-0

29

95

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC South

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

Indianapolis

106.4

106.1

106.5

3-0-0

72

45

Tennessee

102.3

100.6

99.5

0-3-0

58

71

Houston

99.3

96.5

98.3

1-2-0

65

86

Jacksonville

95.4

98.2

98.5

1-2-0

60

69

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFC West

PiRate

Mean

Biased

W-L-T

Pts

Opp

San Diego

104.7

103.6

103.8

2-1-0

73

64

Denver

99.8

102.8

102.7

3-0-0

62

16

Oakland

92.0

94.0

92.8

1-2-0

36

57

Kansas City

89.7

92.5

90.8

0-3-0

48

85

 

This Week’s Games

Home Team in CAPS (N) Denotes Neutral Site          
   

 

 

 

 

 

HFA for Week 4 = 2.8  

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday, October 4, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

HOUSTON Oakland

10.1

5.3

8.3

9 1/2

42   

Tennessee JACKSONVILLE

4.1

-0.4

-1.8

3   

41 1/2

Baltimore NEW ENGLAND

0.2

0.1

-0.5

2   

44 1/2

Cincinnati CLEVELAND

8.7

6.3

10.0

5 1/2

38 1/2

New York Giants KANSAS CITY

15.3

11.2

12.6

9   

42 1/2

CHICAGO Detroit

11.9

11.6

10.2

10   

38 1/2

WASHINGTON Tampa Bay

9.0

7.3

6.0

7   

37   

INDIANAPOLIS Seattle

12.4

11.1

10.9

NL

NL

NEW ORLEANS New York Jets

11.2

8.4

6.8

6 1/2

45 1/2

MIAMI Buffalo

1.6

1.5

0.2

-2   

36 1/2

SAN FRANCISCO St. Louis

16.4

16.4

17.0

10   

37 1/2

DENVER Dallas

2.0

2.2

3.7

3   

43   

PITTSBURGH San Diego

5.2

2.7

2.2

6 1/2

43   

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

Monday, October 5, 2009  

 

 

 

 

 

Favorite Underdog

PiRate

Mean

Bias

Vegas

Totals

MINNESOTA Green Bay

7.5

6.3

6.6

3 1/2

46   

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