The Pi-Rate Ratings

December 10, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football Bowls 2011-12

Filed under: College Football — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 8:19 pm

Check Back Monday For Round One Of Simulated College Playoffs

The first round of the 2011-12 college football simulated playoffs were simulated Friday, and the results will be posted Monday, December 12.  Check back to see which four teams won and which four lost as we pare down from the Dandy Dozen to the Elite Eight.

 

Now to get back to reality, here are the ratings for the real season—the one that ends with 34 dull bowls and one that means anything.

 

Even the old pre-BCS system would be preferable to the way things are today.  The New Year’s bowl games are not worth tuning in any more.  The one event that is meaningful on New Year’s is the NHL Winter Classic.

 

Let’s look at how New Year’s Day (actually January 2 this year) might have been if the old system was still in place.

 

Sugar Bowl:  L S U vs. Stanford

Cotton Bowl: Kansas State vs. Alabama

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

Orange Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Clemson

 

These four games would all be meaningful, and three of the four could have played a part in the National Championship.  If Stanford upset LSU in the early game, then Alabama and Oklahoma State would still have a shot at the title, and all four teams could have ended up with one of the big four or five national championships.  In our opinion, it is better to have split champions than to exclude a team from having a chance.  It is much better for the bowls, because to be frank, we will not watch the first 34 bowls.  On New Year’s Day, we will have NFL Playoffs this year, but we will not watch the bowls on January 2; there is nothing entertaining about them, especially with one game being played against two 6-6 teams.

 

Final Regular Season PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

1

L S U

139.6

2

Alabama

135.1

3

Oklahoma St.

131.5

4

Southern Cal

130.9

5

Oregon

128.3

6

Stanford

127.2

7

Wisconsin

126.8

8

Arkansas

123.6

9

Oklahoma

121.6

10

Florida St.

120.3

11

Boise St.

120.0

12

Michigan

119.2

13

Michigan St.

118.9

14

TexasA&M

118.5

15

Georgia 

116.8

16

Baylor

116.8

17

Notre Dame

116.7

18

S. Carolina

115.9

19

T C U

114.5

20

Houston

114.4

21

Kansas St.

113.9

22

California

113.9

23

Clemson

113.6

24

Missouri

113.6

25

Texas

113.1

26

Nebraska

112.0

27

Virginia Tech

111.5

28

Vanderbilt

111.3

29

B Y U

111.0

30

Florida 

110.6

31

LouisianaTech

109.3

32

Utah

109.0

33

Arizona St.

108.9

34

Southern Miss.

108.8

35

Miami(FL)

108.8

36

Mississippi St.

108.7

37

Washington

108.5

38

Ohio St.

108.1

39

Nevada

107.6

40

W. Virginia

106.9

41

Cincinnati

106.5

42

Tulsa

106.4

43

Georgia Tech

105.8

44

N. Carolina St.

105.7

45

Penn St.

105.4

46

U C L A

105.4

47

BostonColl.

105.1

48

N. Carolina

105.0

49

Pittsburgh

104.6

50

Oregon St.

104.4

51

Iowa

104.3

52

Iowa St.

103.9

53

Louisville

103.7

54

Auburn

103.5

55

Northwestern

103.3

56

Virginia

102.8

57

Arizona

102.8

58

Washington St.

102.1

59

Tennessee

101.7

60

S. Florida

100.6

61

Air Force

100.4

62

WakeForest

100.3

63

Toledo

99.9

64

Temple

99.4

65

Rutgers

98.8

66

Utah St.

98.4

67

Purdue

98.3

68

Illinois

98.0

69

San Diego St.

97.3

70

Minnesota

97.2

71

Connecticut

97.1

72

TexasTech

96.9

73

Arkansas St.

95.8

74

Colorado

95.4

75

Wyoming

95.3

76

Western Michigan

95.3

77

Duke

95.3

78

Central Florida

95.2

79

Kentucky

94.9

80

Navy

94.9

81

Northern Illinois

94.8

82

San Jose St.

93.6

83

S M U

91.9

84

Maryland

91.6

85

East Carolina

91.4

86

Syracuse

91.2

87

Fresno St.

91.1

88

Hawaii

90.6

89

Miami(O)

90.2

90

WesternKy.

89.6

91

OhioU

89.3

92

FloridaInt’l

89.2

93

Kansas

89.1

94

Ole Miss

88.7

95

UL-Lafayette

86.8

96

UL-Monroe

86.0

97

U T E P

85.5

98

Marshall

84.9

99

North Texas

84.8

100

Bowling Green

84.2

101

Rice

83.9

102

Colorado St.

83.9

103

Army

83.5

104

Ball St.

82.9

105

Eastern Michigan

82.0

106

Indiana

82.0

107

Kent St.

81.9

108

Idaho

81.5

109

New Mexico St.

80.7

110

U A B

78.8

111

U N L V

76.9

112

Central Michigan

76.5

113

Buffalo

76.0

114

Troy

74.6

115

New Mexico

71.0

116

Tulane

70.5

117

Memphis

68.0

118

MiddleTennessee

67.2

119

FloridaAtlantic

64.0

120

Akron

57.4

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

5-3

8-4

120.3

Clemson   √

6-2

10-3

113.6

North CarolinaState

4-4

7-5

105.7

BostonCollege

3-5

4-8

105.1

WakeForest

5-3

6-6

100.3

Maryland

1-7

2-10

91.6

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

7-1

11-2

111.5

Miami-FL

3-5

6-6

108.8

Georgia Tech

5-3

8-4

105.8

North Carolina

3-5

7-5

105.0

Virginia

5-3

8-4

102.8

Duke

1-7

3-9

95.3

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

West Virginia   √

5-2

9-3

106.9

Cincinnati

5-2

9-3

106.5

Pittsburgh

4-3

6-6

104.6

Louisville

5-2

7-5

103.7

South Florida

1-6

5-7

100.6

Rutgers

4-3

8-4

98.8

Connecticut

3-4

5-7

97.1

Syracuse

1-6

5-7

91.2

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin   √

6-2

11-2

126.8

PennState

6-2

9-3

105.4

OhioState

3-5

6-6

108.1

Illinois

2-6

6-6

98.0

Purdue

4-4

6-6

98.3

Indiana

0-8

1-11

82.0

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Michigan

6-2

10-2

119.2

MichiganState

7-1

10-3

118.9

Nebraska

5-3

9-3

112.0

Iowa

4-4

7-5

104.3

Northwestern

3-5

6-6

103.3

Minnesota

2-6

3-9

97.2

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

OklahomaState   √

8-1

11-1

131.5

Oklahoma

6-3

9-3

121.6

TexasA&M

4-5

6-6

118.5

Baylor

6-3

9-3

116.8

KansasState

7-2

10-2

113.9

Missouri

5-4

7-5

113.6

Texas

4-5

7-5

113.1

IowaState

3-6

6-6

103.9

TexasTech

2-7

5-7

96.9

Kansas

0-9

2-10

89.1

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi   *

6-2

11-2

108.8

Central Florida

3-5

5-7

95.2

East Carolina

4-4

5-7

91.4

Marshall

5-3

6-6

84.9

U A B

3-5

3-9

78.8

Memphis

1-7

2-10

68.0

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

8-0

12-1

114.4

Tulsa

7-1

8-4

106.4

S M U

5-3

7-5

91.9

U T E P

2-6

5-7

85.5

Rice

3-5

4-8

83.9

Tulane

1-7

2-11

70.5

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

8-4

116.7

B Y U  

9-3

111.0

Navy  

4-7

95.4

Army  

3-8

83.0

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

5-3

8-4

99.4

Miami(O)

3-5

4-8

90.2

OhioU

6-2

9-4

89.3

Bowling Green

3-5

5-7

84.2

Kent St.

4-4

5-7

81.9

Buffalo

2-6

3-9

76.0

Akron

0-8

1-11

57.4

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

7-1

8-4

99.9

Western Michigan

5-3

7-5

95.3

Northern Illinois   * 

7-1

10-3

94.8

BallState

4-4

6-6

82.9

Eastern Michigan

4-4

6-6

82.0

Central Michigan

2-6

3-9

76.5

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

BoiseState

6-1

11-1

120.0

T C U   *

7-0

10-2

114.5

Air Force

3-4

7-5

100.4

San DiegoState

5-3

8-4

97.3

Wyoming

5-2

8-4

95.3

ColoradoState

1-6

3-9

83.9

UNLV

1-6

2-10

76.9

New Mexico

1-6

1-11

71.0

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oregon   √

8-1

11-2

128.3

Stanford

8-1

11-1

127.2

California

4-5

7-5

113.9

Washington

5-4

7-5

108.5

OregonState

3-6

3-9

104.4

WashingtonState

2-7

4-8

102.1

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

U S C

7-2

10-2

130.9

Utah

4-5

7-5

109.0

ArizonaState

4-5

6-6

108.9

U C L A

5-4

6-7

105.4

Arizona

2-7

4-8

102.8

Colorado

2-7

3-10

95.4

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Georgia

7-1

10-3

116.8

South Carolina

6-2

10-2

115.9

Vanderbilt

2-6

6-6

111.3

Florida

3-5

6-6

110.6

Tennessee

1-7

5-7

101.7

Kentucky

2-6

5-7

94.9

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

L S U   √

8-0

13-0

139.6

Alabama

7-1

11-1

135.1

Arkansas

6-2

10-2

123.6

MississippiState

2-6

6-6

108.7

Auburn

4-4

7-5

103.5

Ole Miss

0-8

2-10

88.7

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

ArkansasState   *

8-0

10-2

95.8

Western Kentucky

7-1

7-5

89.6

FloridaInternational

5-3

8-4

89.2

U.ofLouisiana

6-2

8-4

86.8

Louisiana-Monroe

3-5

4-8

86.0

North Texas

4-4

5-7

84.8

Troy

2-6

3-9

74.6

MiddleTennessee

1-7

2-10

67.2

FloridaAtlantic

0-8

1-11

64.0

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

LouisianaTech   *

6-1

8-4

109.3

Nevada

5-2

7-5

107.6

UtahState

5-2

7-5

98.4

San JoseState

3-4

5-7

93.6

FresnoState

3-4

4-9

91.1

Hawaii

3-4

6-7

90.6

Idaho

1-6

2-10

81.5

New MexicoState

2-5

4-9

80.7

 

2011-12 PiRate Spreads For Bowls

     

PiRate Spread

 

 

Bowl Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

New Mexico Temple Wyoming

4.1

28-24

6 1/2

Famous Idaho Potato Utah State Ohio U

9.1

30-21

3   

New Orleans San Diego St. Louisiana-Lafayette

8.5

33-24

5   

Beef O’Brady’s Florida Int’l Marshall

5.3

24-19

4   

Poinsettia T C U Louisiana Tech

5.2

28-23

10 1/2

MAACO Boise St. Arizona St.

11.1

38-27

14   

Hawaii Southern Miss. Nevada

1.2

35-34

6   

Independence Missouri North Carolina

8.6

28-19

4 1/2

Little Caesar’s Pizza Purdue Western Mich.

3.0

31-28

2 1/2

Belk North Carolina St. Louisville

4.0

27-23

2 1/2

Military Air Force Toledo

0.5

35-34

-3   

Holiday California Texas

0.8

22-21

-3 1/2

Champs Sports Florida St. Notre Dame

4.6

26-21

3   

Alamo Baylor Washington

9.3

41-32

9   

Armed Forces B Y U Tulsa

4.6

38-33

2 1/2

Pinstripe Iowa St. Rutgers

3.1

27-24

-2   

Music City Mississippi St. Wake Forest

8.4

20-12

6 1/2

Insight Oklahoma Iowa

17.3

34-17

14   

Meineke Car Care of Texas Texas A&M Northwestern

16.2

44-28

10   

Sun Utah Georgia Tech

3.2

34-31

-3 1/2

Kraft Fight Hunger U C L A Illinois

7.4

28-21

-2 1/2

Liberty Vanderbilt Cincinnati

4.8

31-26

2 1/2

Chick-fil-A Auburn Virginia

0.7

24-23

1   

TicketCity Houston Penn State

9.0

29-20

5 1/2

Capital One South Carolina Nebraska

3.9

20-16

2   

Gator Florida Ohio St.

4.5

21-16

2   

Outback Michigan St. Georgia

2.1

30-28

-3 1/2

Rose Oregon Wisconsin

1.5

37-35

6   

Fiesta Oklahoma St. Stanford

4.3

42-38

3 1/2

Sugar Michigan Virginia Tech

7.7

24-16

2   

Orange Clemson West Virginia

6.7

31-24

3 1/2

Cotton Arkansas Kansas St.

9.7

34-24

7 1/2

BBVA Compass Pittsburgh S M U

12.7

27-14

5   

GoDaddy.com Arkansas St. Northern Illinois

1.0

29-28

1 1/2

National Championship L S U Alabama

6.5

16-9

1   

 

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November 28, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football for December 1-10, 2011

It’s Open Season On Coaching Jobs

It started early this year.  New Mexico was forced to dismiss Mike Locksley early, and the Lobos were quick to name former Notre Dame coach Bob Davie as their new coach.  Ohio State’s job was available as soon as the Buckeyes lost their second game.  To say the brass in Columbus did not know who they wanted from the start was an “Urban” myth.

 

Ole Miss terminated Houston Nutt.  Arizona and Mike Stoops parted ways.  Joe Paterno lost his job over off the field issues.  Then, Bob Toledo was sent on his way from Tulane.

 

The floodgates soon opened, and by Sunday, the list of coaching vacancies had swelled.  At its worst, Akron fired Rob Ianello over the phone while he was driving to his mother’s funeral.  What a tasteless act!  A pox on the program, the Zips should be punished with 30 losing seasons in a row and a bankrupt athletic department.  How would any honest, hard-working coach ever want to sign on with the Zips?

 

If you ever wanted to find a living example of the Peter Principle, then look at Champaign-Urbana, Illinois.  Ron Zook proved for the second time that he is not up to the task of handling a major college football program.  The Illini dismissed Zook Sunday following their sixth consecutive loss after beginning the season 6-0 with talent strong enough to contend for the Leaders Division title.  Zook should be a recruiter and an assistant coach.  He admitted earlier this season that he did not know the score of more than one game when he made decisions to go for two points following a touchdown.

 

More vacancies are sure to come.  Rick Neuheisel is expected to be fired as soon as his UCLA Bruins lose at Oregon this week.  He could even lose his job if the Bruins upset the Ducks and earn a Rose Bowl bid.  With Meyer filling the Ohio State vacancy and former Michigan and West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez filling the Arizona vacancy, the vacancy in Westwood becomes the cream of the crop if it indeed becomes a vacancy.  You have to believe the Penn State job will not be as enticing.

 

As The Leach Turns

Mike Leach, an honorary member of the PiRate Ratings, will be considered for many of the coaching vacancies this year.  Fans at Kansas, Ole Miss, Washington State, Arizona State, Tulane, Florida Atlantic, and UAB have already begun to talk about Leach being at or near the top of their wish list.  As soon as Neuheisel is let go at UCLA, Leach fever will break out in Westwood.

 

Leach does not understand the principle of tactfulness.  Like Howard Cosell, he tells it like it is, and the “good ole boys network” does not like 100% honesty coming forth from their employees.  It’s the company line or the unemployment line, and Leach is doing quite well as a sports talk show host.  Throw in a wrongful termination suit against Texas Tech (which appears to be justified) and a lawsuit against ESPN, and Ron Zook may have a better chance getting hired for one of these coaching vacancies. 

 

Gary Barnett took a Northwestern program that had been 0-11 or 1-10 over 50% of the time in the 20 years prior to his coming to Evanston.  He guided the Wildcats to the Rose Bowl.  He went to Boulder and guided Colorado to a Big 12 Championship, yet he found himself unemployed following an incident in which he used tactics to encourage a female placekicker to quit the team.  No school ever approached him following his termination, and Leach could very well be in the same boat.

 

The Big East Isn’t As Messy Now

After a wild week of games on the Eastern Seaboard, the race for the automatic bid to a BCS Bowl comes down to three teams in the Big East’s final weekend.  Louisville defeated South Florida to become one of the three finalists.  The Cardinals do not control their own destiny, and they will be on the sidelines anxiously awaiting the results of games to be played Thursday and Saturday.

 

West Virginia ventures to Tampa Thursday night to take on South Florida.  If the Mountaineers win, then Cincinnati is eliminated from the race.  If West Virginia loses, then Cincinnati would then control their own destiny.  The Bearcats host Connecticut Saturday.

 

If West Virginia and Cincinnati both win, then West Virginia is the Big East Champion in a three-way tiebreaker.  If West Virginia wins and Cincinnati loses to Connecticut, then Louisville is the winner in a two-way tiebreaker.  If West Virginia loses and Cincinnati wins, then Cincinnati bests Louisville in a two-way tiebreaker.  Of course, if both West Virginia and Cincinnati both lose, Louisville wins the conference outright.

 

According to game theory, Louisville has two options to win the conference championship, while WVU and Cinti have just one.  So, Louisville is the favorite to get the BCS bowl bid.  Regardless of which team wins, that team will be the 10th and final BCS bowl selection, and they will play the ACC Champion in the Orange Bowl, which has the final pick this year.

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

1

L S U

137.8

2

Alabama

135.1

3

Southern Cal

130.9

4

Oregon

129.5

5

Stanford

127.2

6

Wisconsin

127.1

7

Oklahoma

126.8

8

Oklahoma St.

126.3

9

Arkansas

123.6

10

Florida St.

120.3

11

Houston

119.9

12

Boise St.

119.9

13

Michigan

119.2

14

Georgia 

118.6

15

Michigan St.

118.6

16

Texas A&M

118.5

17

Virginia Tech

116.8

18

Texas

116.8

19

Notre Dame

116.7

20

S. Carolina

115.9

21

Kansas St.

114.2

22

T C U

114.1

23

California

113.9

24

Missouri

113.6

25

Baylor

113.1

26

Nebraska

112.0

27

Vanderbilt

111.3

28

Florida 

110.6

29

B Y U

109.9

30

Louisiana Tech

109.3

31

Utah

109.0

32

Arizona St.

108.9

33

Miami (FL)

108.8

34

Mississippi St.

108.7

35

Washington

108.5

36

Clemson

108.3

37

Ohio St.

108.1

38

W. Virginia

106.8

39

Tulsa

106.4

40

Cincinnati

106.4

41

Georgia Tech

105.8

42

N. Carolina St.

105.7

43

Penn St.

105.4

44

Boston Coll.

105.1

45

N. Carolina

105.0

46

Pittsburgh

104.8

47

Oregon St.

104.4

48

Iowa

104.3

49

U C L A

104.2

50

Nevada

103.8

51

Louisville

103.7

52

Iowa St.

103.6

53

Auburn

103.5

54

Southern Miss.

103.3

55

Northwestern

103.3

56

Virginia

102.8

57

Arizona

102.8

58

Washington St.

102.1

59

Tennessee

101.7

60

S. Florida

100.7

61

Air Force

100.4

62

Wake Forest

100.3

63

Toledo

99.9

64

Temple

99.4

65

Utah St.

98.9

66

Rutgers

98.8

67

Purdue

98.3

68

Illinois

98.0

69

San Diego St.

97.2

70

Connecticut

97.2

71

Minnesota

97.2

72

Texas Tech

96.9

73

Wyoming

95.6

74

Navy

95.4

75

Colorado

95.4

76

Western Michigan

95.3

77

Duke

95.3

78

Central Florida

95.2

79

Northern Illinois

95.0

80

Kentucky

94.9

81

Arkansas St.

94.5

82

San Jose St.

93.6

83

S M U

91.9

84

Hawaii

91.7

85

Maryland

91.6

86

East Carolina

91.4

87

Fresno St.

91.2

88

Syracuse

91.0

89

Miami (O)

90.2

90

Western Ky.

89.6

91

Florida Int’l

89.2

92

Ohio U

89.1

93

Kansas

89.1

94

Ole Miss

88.7

95

UL-Lafayette

86.8

96

U T E P

85.5

97

Idaho

85.3

98

Marshall

84.9

99

UL-Monroe

84.8

100

Bowling Green

84.2

101

Rice

83.9

102

Colorado St.

83.6

103

Army

83.0

104

Ball St.

82.9

105

Eastern Michigan

82.0

106

Indiana

82.0

107

Kent St.

81.9

108

New Mexico St.

80.2

109

North Texas

79.3

110

U A B

78.8

111

U N L V

77.3

112

Central Michigan

76.5

113

Buffalo

76.0

114

Troy

75.9

115

Middle Tennessee

72.7

116

New Mexico

71.1

117

Tulane

70.5

118

Memphis

68.0

119

Florida Atlantic

65.2

120

Akron

57.4

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

* = team has clinched conference or division title

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

5-3

8-4

120.3

Clemson

6-2 *

9-3

108.3

North CarolinaState

4-4

7-5

105.7

BostonCollege

3-5

4-8

105.1

WakeForest

5-3

6-6

100.3

Maryland

1-7

2-10

91.6

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

7-1 *

11-1

116.8

Miami-FL

3-5

6-6

108.8

Georgia Tech

5-3

8-4

105.8

North Carolina

3-5

7-5

105.0

Virginia

5-3

8-4

102.8

Duke

1-7

3-9

95.3

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

West Virginia

4-2

8-3

106.8

Cincinnati

4-2

8-3

106.4

Pittsburgh

3-3

5-6

104.8

Louisville

5-2

7-5

103.7

South Florida

1-5

5-6

100.7

Rutgers

4-3

8-4

98.8

Connecticut

3-3

5-6

97.2

Syracuse

1-5

5-6

91.0

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

6-2 *

10-2

127.1

Penn State

6-2

9-3

105.4

Ohio State

3-5

6-6

108.1

Illinois

2-6

6-6

98.0

Purdue

4-4

6-6

98.3

Indiana

0-8

1-11

82.0

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Michigan

6-2

10-2

119.2

Michigan State

7-1 *

10-2

118.6

Nebraska

5-3

9-3

112.0

Iowa

4-4

7-5

104.3

Northwestern

3-5

6-6

103.3

Minnesota

2-6

3-9

97.2

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

6-2

9-2

126.8

Oklahoma State

7-1

10-1

126.3

Texas A&M

4-5

6-6

118.5

Texas

4-4

7-4

116.8

Kansas State

6-2

9-2

114.2

Missouri

5-4

7-5

113.6

Baylor

5-3

8-3

113.1

Iowa State

3-5

6-5

103.6

Texas Tech

2-7

5-7

96.9

Kansas

0-9

2-10

89.1

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

6-2 *

10-2

103.3

Central Florida

3-5

5-7

95.2

East Carolina

4-4

5-7

91.4

Marshall

5-3

6-6

84.9

U A B

3-5

3-9

78.8

Memphis

1-7

2-10

68.0

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

8-0 *

12-0

119.9

Tulsa

7-1

8-4

106.4

S M U

5-3

7-5

91.9

U T E P

2-6

5-7

85.5

Rice

3-5

4-8

83.9

Tulane

1-7

2-11

70.5

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

8-4

116.7

B Y U  

8-3

109.9

Navy  

4-7

95.4

Army  

3-8

83.0

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

5-3

8-4

99.4

Miami (O)

3-5

4-8

90.2

Ohio U

6-2 *

9-3

89.1

Bowling Green

3-5

5-7

84.2

Kent St.

4-4

5-7

81.9

Buffalo

2-6

3-9

76.0

Akron

0-8

1-11

57.4

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

7-1

8-4

99.9

Western Michigan

5-3

7-5

95.3

Northern Illinois

7-1 *

9-3

95.0

Ball State

4-4

6-6

82.9

Eastern Michigan

4-4

6-6

82.0

Central Michigan

2-6

3-9

76.5

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

5-1

10-1

119.9

T C U

6-0 *

9-2

114.1

Air Force

3-4

7-5

100.4

San Diego State

4-3

7-4

97.2

Wyoming

4-2

7-4

95.6

Colorado State

1-5

3-8

83.6

UNLV

1-5

2-9

77.3

New Mexico

1-5

1-10

71.1

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oregon

8-1 *

10-2

129.5

Stanford

8-1

11-1

127.2

California

4-5

7-5

113.9

Washington

5-4

7-5

108.5

Oregon State

3-6

3-9

104.4

Washington State

2-7

4-8

102.1

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

U S C

7-2

10-2

130.9

Utah

4-5

7-5

109.0

Arizona State

4-5

6-6

108.9

U C L A

5-4 *

6-6

104.2

Arizona

2-7

4-8

102.8

Colorado

2-7

3-10

95.4

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Georgia

7-1 *

10-2

118.6

South Carolina

6-2

10-2

115.9

Vanderbilt

2-6

6-6

111.3

Florida

3-5

6-6

110.6

Tennessee

1-7

5-7

101.7

Kentucky

2-6

5-7

94.9

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

L S U

8-0 *

12-0

137.8

Alabama

7-1

11-1

135.1

Arkansas

6-2

10-2

123.6

Mississippi State

2-6

6-6

108.7

Auburn

4-4

7-5

103.5

Ole Miss

0-8

2-10

88.7

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Arkansas State

7-0 *

9-2

94.5

Western Kentucky

7-1

7-5

89.6

Florida International

5-3

8-4

89.2

U. of Louisiana

6-2

8-4

86.8

Louisiana-Monroe

2-5

3-8

84.8

North Texas

3-4

4-7

79.3

Troy

2-5

3-8

75.9

Middle Tennessee

1-6

2-9

72.7

Florida Atlantic

0-7

1-10

65.2

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

LouisianaTech

6-1 *

8-4

109.3

Nevada

4-2

6-5

103.8

Utah State

4-2

6-5

98.9

San Jose State

3-4

5-7

93.6

Hawaii

3-4

6-6

91.7

Fresno State

3-4

4-8

91.2

Idaho

1-5

2-9

85.3

New Mexico State

2-4

4-8

80.2

 

 

Final Regular Season Games (12/1 to 12/10)

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

Thursday, December 1  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

West Virginia SOUTH FLORIDA

3.1

27-24

1   

   

 

 

 

Friday, December 2  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Northern Illinois   (n) Ohio U

5.9

30-24

3   

OREGON U c l a

28.3

38-10

30 1/2

   

 

 

 

Saturday, December 3  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

CINCINNATI Connecticut

12.2

32-20

9 1/2

PITTSBURGH Syracuse

16.8

27-10

13   

KANSAS ST. Iowa St.

13.6

31-17

12   

Wyoming COLORADO ST.

9.5

24-14

5   

T C U U n l v

39.8

47-7

40 1/2

OKLAHOMA ST. Oklahoma

2.0

35-33

3   

Texas BAYLOR

1.2

29-28

-2 1/2

NEVADA Idaho

21.0

42-21

19   

BOISE ST. New Mexico

51.8

52-0

52   

B y u HAWAII

14.2

35-21

8   

Utah St. NEW MEXICO ST.

16.2

37-21

14   

SAN DIEGO ST. Fresno St.

8.5

33-24

6 1/2

ARKANSAS ST. Troy

21.1

34-13

13   

NORTH TEXAS Middle Tennessee

9.6

27-17

7   

Louisiana-Monroe FLORIDA ATLANTIC

17.1

34-17

11 1/2

HOUSTON Southern Miss.

19.6

41-21

16 1/2

L s u    (n) Georgia

17.7

35-17

10   

Virginia Tech    (n) Clemson

8.5

28-19

4 1/2

Wisconsin     (n) Michigan St.

8.5

35-26

7 1/2

   

 

 

 

Saturday, December 10  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Navy     (n) Army

12.4

24-12

NL

 

Bowl Predictions

At this point of the season, we are no longer making predictions on bowl games.  Instead, we are perusing the media for incites into which way the bowls are leaning.  For instance, from sport talk radio this morning, we have heard the rumor that the Gator Bowl is going to go after Florida and Ohio State due to the Urban Meyer factor.  Thus, when we predict this matchup, it is no longer our true prediction, but our repetition of the rumor.  We do not rely on any online bowl speculations; we are looking for legitimate media reports.  If there are no specific reports concerning a particular bowl, then we do the speculating based on an educated guess.

 

Teams in Italics have already accepted the bowl bid

* = At-large Team

 

As of today, we are projecting 71 teams to be bowl eligible after this weekend.  The 70th spot will come down to a choice between Ball State and Illinois, unless something occurs with Penn State.  There is a move afoot for the bowls not to invite the Nittany Lions, but as of this writing, there is no legal means to do so.

 

Bowl

Conference

Conference

Team

Team

New Mexico

MWC #4

Pac12 #7 / WAC

San Diego St.

Temple *

Famous Idaho Potato

MAC #3

WAC

Toledo

Utah St.

New Orleans

Sunbelt #1

C-USA

U. of Louisiana

Marshall

Beef O’Brady’s

Big East #6

C-USA

South Florida

Florida Int’l *

Poinsettia

MWC #2

WAC

T C U

Louisiana Tech

MAACO

MWC #1

Pac 12 #5

Boise St.

Arizona St.

Hawaii

WAC

C-USA

Nevada

S M U

Independence

ACC #7

MWC #3

North Carolina

Wyoming

Little Caesar’s Pizza

Big 10 #8

MAC #2

Northwestern

Western Mich.

Belk

ACC #5

Big East #3

North Carolina St.

West Virginia

Military

ACC #8

Navy

Wake Forest

Air Force *

Holiday

Pac 12 #3

Big 12 #5

California

Baylor

Champs Sports

Big East #2

ACC #3

Notre Dame

Florida St.

Alamo

Big 12 #3

Pac 10 #2

Texas

Washington

Armed Forces

C-USA #3

B Y U

Tulsa

B Y U

Pinstripe

Big East #4

Big 12 #7

Rutgers

Iowa St.

Music City

SEC # 7

ACC #6

Mississippi St.

Virginia

Insight

Big 12 #4

Big 10 #4 or 5

Kansas St.

Iowa

Meineke Car Care of Texas

Big 12 #6

Big 10 #6

Texas A&M

Penn St.

Sun

ACC #4

Pac 12 #4

Georgia Tech

Utah

Kraft Fight Hunger

Pac 10 #6

Army/ACC

Ohio U *

Illinois *

Liberty

SEC#8-9/BigEast

C-USA #1

Vanderbilt

Southern Miss.

Chick-fil-A

SEC #5

ACC #2

Auburn

Clemson

TicketCity

Big 10 #7

C-USA

Purdue

Pittsburgh *

Capital One

Big 10 #2

SEC #2

Michigan St.

Arkansas

Gator

Big 10 #4 or 5

SEC #6

Ohio St.

Florida

Outback

SEC #3 or 4

Big 10 #3

South Carolina

Nebraska

Rose

BCS Pac12

BCS Big 10

Oregon

Wisconsin

Fiesta

BCS Big 12

BCS At-Large

Oklahoma St.

Stanford

Sugar

BCS SEC

BCS At-Large

Houston *

Michigan

Orange

BCS ACC

BCS At-Large

Virginia Tech

Cincinnati

Cotton

Big 12 #2

SEC #3 or 4

Oklahoma

Georgia

BBVA Compass

Big East#5/CUSA

SEC #8 or 9

Louisville

Western Ky. *

GoDaddy.com

Sunbelt # 2

MAC #1

Arkansas St.

Northern Illinois

National Championship

*** BCS #1 ***

*** BCS #2 ***

L S U

Alabama

 

 

*** Returning next week: Our computer simulated college football playoffs.  We will use the same formula we have used in past years—a 12-team college football playoff. 

November 21, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football for November 22-26, 2011

65 Bowl Eligible Teams—Need 70

Some of the lower-tier bowl committee members will have some very short fingernails this week.  There should be 67 bowl eligible teams this week.  However, Southern Cal is ineligible for postseason bowls, and Miami of Florida announced they will not accept any bowl bids this season.  That leaves a need for five more bowl-eligible teams. 

 

We here at the PiRate Cove believe there is nothing to worry about.  There are 10 teams that need one more win and five have a patsy left of their schedule.  All five of these one-more-win-needed teams should defeat their patsy.  Those five, with their patsy opponent in parentheses are: North Carolina State (Maryland), Purdue (Indiana), Air Force (Colorado St.), Tennessee (Kentucky), Mississippi State (Ole Miss).

 

Two definite additions will be the winner of the Syracuse-Pittsburgh game next week and the winner of this week’s Marshall-East Carolina game.  The Syracuse-Pitt loser can still get a sixth win; Pitt would have to win their Backyard Brawl against West Virginia, or Syracuse would have to beat Cincinnati.

 

Conference by Conference Analysis

ACC

The big news here isn’t which team is going to win the title; it is that Miami pulled itself from consideration for a bowl game.  The Hurricanes have issued a self-imposed bowl ban.  Might coach Al Golden take advantage of not having to worry about leaving his team in the lurch in December and bolt to the first place that wants him?  We wouldn’t be surprised if Penn State comes calling.  Ole Miss is a possibility as well.

 

Clemson is limping into the ACC Championship Game.  The Tigers may actually be the fourth or fifth best team in the league at the present time.

 

The Coastal Division championship will be decided in Charlottesville this week, as Virginia hosts Virginia Tech.  The winner of this game will have all the momentum, and we feel they will be the host team in the Orange Bowl.

 

North Carolina State is 6-5, but they own two wins over FCS teams.  Expect the Wolf Pack to become eligible with a win over Maryland.

 

1. Orange—Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers

2. Chick-fil-A—Clemson vs. Florida

3. Champs Sports—Florida State vs. Notre Dame

4. Sun—Georgia Tech vs. Arizona State

5. Belk—North Carolina vs. West Virginia

6. Music City—Virginia vs. Mississippi State

7. Independence—North Carolina State vs. Air Force

8. Military—Wake Forest vs. Western Michigan

 

Big East

Like this league or hate it (or just believe it should not have an automatic BCS bid), you have to laugh at the fact that all eight teams can still become bowl eligible.  We believe seven of the eight will be successful. Add Notre Dame to the mix here, as they will not finish high enough to earn a BCS bid, even if they upset Stanford.

 

The race for what will be the last BCS selection is up for grabs, with five teams still in contention.  West Virginia controls its own destiny.  If the Mountaineers defeat Pittsburgh and South Florida, they win all tiebreakers.  We do not believe they will win both games.

 

Cincinnati must defeat Syracuse and Connecticut to have a chance to grab the BCS bid.  Again, we do not see the Bearcats pulling off the feat.

 

Louisville and Pittsburgh are still alive in the race.  The Cardinals would have to defeat Connecticut and South Florida (both on the road) and hope for some help.  The Panthers would have to beat West Virginia and Syracuse. 

 

Rutgers has a home game with Cincinnati and a finale at Connecticut.  We believe the Scarlet Knights will win both to take the crown.

 

1. Orange—Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech

2. Champs Sports—Notre Dame vs. Florida State

3. Belk—West Virginia vs. North Carolina

4. Pinstripe—Pittsburgh vs. Texas

5. BVAA Compass—Cincinnati vs. Western Kentucky

6. Beef O’Brady’s—South Florida vs. Florida International

 

Big Ten

Wisconsin must defeat Penn State to secure the Leaders Division title, and we believe the Badgers will do it.

 

Michigan State has already secured the Legends Division crown, and the Spartans just might knock off UW in a rematch for the BCS bid.

 

Michigan should earn an at-large bid to a BCS bowl if they finally defeat Ohio State.  We believe they will.

 

There has been talk that the bowls should pass up Penn State, but we do not believe that will happen.

 

1. Rose—Michigan State vs. Oregon

2. Sugar—Michigan vs. Houston

3. Capital One—Wisconsin vs. Georgia

4. Outback—Nebraska vs. South Carolina

5. Gator—Penn State vs. Auburn

6. Insight—Iowa vs. Baylor

7. Meineke Car Care—Illinois vs. Missouri

8. TicketCity—Ohio St. vs. Marshall

9. Little Caesar’s—Purdue vs. Ohio U

10. Hawaii (at-large)—Northwestern vs. S M U

 

Big 12

In two days, this league self-destructed.  Gone are all chances for Oklahoma, while Oklahoma State needs two, and maybe three, SEC teams to lose.  Kansas State is still alive for an at-large BCS bowl, but we do not believe the Wildcats will get the invitation.

 

The other big stories this weekend will revolve around Texas and Texas A&M hooking up in College Station and Kansas and Missouri facing off at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.  This will be the last Big 12 games for the Aggies and Tigers, and it could be the final games in these long series for several years.

 

1. Fiesta—Oklahoma St. vs. Stanford

2. Cotton—Oklahoma vs. Arkansas

3. Alamo—Kansas St. vs. Utah

4. Insight—Baylor vs. Iowa

5. Holiday—Texas A&M vs. Washington

6. Meineke Car Care—Missouri vs. Illinois

7. Pinstripe—Texas vs. Pittsburgh

 

Pac-12

With Oregon losing, the Ducks can only play in the Rose Bowl if they win the Civil War game at home against Oregon State.  Stanford is still very much alive for a BCS Bowl, and a win over Notre Dame will secure one of the four at-large spots.

 

The South Division is the most interesting part of the conference race.  Southern Cal will win the division but will not play in the inaugural conference championship game.  The runner-up will get the nod, and three teams are still alive.

 

UCLA will win the spot with an upset over USC or if Utah loses to Colorado.  We say neither will occur.

 

Utah will win the spot if they defeat Colorado, USC beats UCLA, and Cal beats Arizona State.

 

Arizona State will win the spot if they defeat Cal and USC beats UCLA.

 

Arizona is not bowl eligible, but the Wildcats will announce Rich Rodriguez as their new coach.

 

1. Rose—Oregon vs. Michigan State

2. Fiesta—Stanford vs. Oklahoma State

3. Alamo—Utah vs. Kansas State

4. Holiday—Washington vs. Texas A&M

5. Sun—Arizona St. vs. Georgia Tech

6. MAACO—UCLA vs. T C U

7. Kraft Fight Hunger—California vs. Toledo

 

Southeastern

This is the most interesting of all conferences.  The big talk Sunday was the possibility that three teams could play in BCS Bowls because of a technicality in the rules.

 

If LSU beats Arkansas and then loses to Georgia by a slim margin in the SEC Championship, and if Alabama beats Auburn, Alabama will be number one in the BCS Poll, and LSU could fall only one spot to number two.  Alabama and LSU would then play for the National Championship, but Georgia, as SEC Champion, would be guaranteed a spot in the Sugar Bowl.  It could happen, but we believe LSU will be 13-0.

 

Three teams still need one more win to become bowl eligible.  Tennessee should defeat Kentucky, as they always do to get to 6-6.  Mississippi State should send Houston Nutt out of Oxford on a losing streak as the Bulldogs knock off Ole Miss.  However, we believe Vanderbilt will come up short at Wake Forest.  The Commodores are reeling after giving away bowl eligibility in Knoxville Saturday night.  As they say in Nashville, “Same Old Vandy.”

 

1. National Championship Game—L S U vs. Alabama

2. National Championship Game—Alabama vs. L S U

3. Capital One—Georgia vs. Wisconsin

4. Outback—South Carolina vs. Nebraska

5. Cotton—Arkansas vs. Oklahoma

6. Chick-fil-A—Florida vs. Clemson

7. Gator—Auburn vs. Penn State

8. Music City—Mississippi State vs. Virginia

9. Liberty—Tennessee vs. Southern Mississippi

10. BVAA Compass—XXX

 

Conference USA

Houston currently trails Boise State in the BCS rankings, but the Cougars have two remaining games against decent competition in Tulsa and then Southern Mississippi in the CUSA Championship Game, while Boise State has a home game against one of the five weakest teams (New Mexico) in the land.  Okay, Tulsa could defeat Houston and end this speculation, but we are going to go with the Cougars to improve to 13-0 and pass Boise State in the BCS Rankings.  Case Keenum should be invited to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation, and Houston should get the conference’s first BCS bowl bid.

 

1. Sugar—Houston vs. Michigan

2. Liberty—Southern Mississippi vs. Tennessee

3. Hawaii—S M U vs. Northwestern

4. TicketCity—Marshall vs. Ohio State

5. Armed Forces—Tulsa vs. B Y U

6. Beef O’Brady’s—XXX

7. New Orleans—XXX

 

Independents

Army and Navy have already been eliminated from bowl eligibility, so the Military and Kraft Fight Hunger Bowls will have to find an at-large team to fill these spots.  We predict that the Mid-American Conference will have three extra bowl eligible teams with seven or more wins, and two of those MAC teams will replace Army and Navy.

 

Brigham Young has already accepted a bid to the Armed Forces Bowl, while Notre Dame counts in the Big East bowl allotments.

 

1. Armed Forces—B Y U

2. Military—XXX

3. Kraft Fight Hunger—XXX

 

Mid-American

Although the MAC has just two bowl guarantees, they will have at least four teams going to bowls, and we believe they will get a fifth team in this year.

 

Ohio has already won the East Division title, while Northern Illinois and Toledo are the two contenders in the West.  If NIU defeats Eastern Michigan, the Huskies are in.  If EMU upsets NIU, then Toledo can get in with a win over Ball State.

 

1. GoDaddy—Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State

2. Little Caesar’s—Ohio U vs. Purdue

3. Kraft Fight Hunger (at-large)—Toledo vs. California

4. Military (at-large)—Western Michigan vs. Wake Forest

5. New Orleans (at-large)—Temple vs. U. of Louisiana

 

Mountain West

Boise State is still alive for a BCS Bowl bid, but the Broncos’ computer rating will suffer when they host New Mexico in the season finale.  They could fall behind a 13-0 Houston team in both the human polls and computer ratings.

 

Air Force has two wins over FCS teams, so the 6-5 Falcons still need to defeat in-state rival Colorado State in Ft. Collins this weekend to earn a bowl bid.  We say it will happen.

 

1. MAACO—T C U vs. U C L A

2. Famous Idaho Potato—Boise State vs. Nevada

3. Poinsettia—San Diego State vs. Utah State

4. Independence—Air Force vs. North Carolina State

5. New Mexico—Wyoming vs. Louisiana Tech

 

Sunbelt

Arkansas State is the best team in the league’s short history.  The Red Wolves can become the first league team to win 10 regular season wins if they defeat Troy next week.

 

Louisiana (Lafayette) has never been to a bowl game, but the Ragin’ Cajuns should get that reward this year.

 

Florida International will get an at-large bid somewhere, because the Golden Panthers will have eight wins.  Western Kentucky should defeat Troy to finish 7-5 after starting 0-4.  Their only loss in the last eight would be to LSU, so the Hilltoppers should also get an at-large bowl bid.  It would be their first bowl as well.

 

1. GoDaddy—Arkansas State (already accepted) vs. Northern Illinois

2. New Orleans—U. of Lousiana vs. Temple

3. Beef O’Brady’s (at-large)—Florida International vs. South Florida

4. BVAA Compass (at-large)—Western Kentucky vs. Cincinnati

 

W A C

Without Boise State, this league has fallen a couple notches this year.  Louisiana Tech will win the conference championship this week when they defeat New Mexico State in Ruston.

 

Hawaii will dismiss Tulane this week, but they must also beat BYU to secure a spot in the Hawaii Bowl.  We smell an at-large invitation being mailed out.

 

1. New Mexico—Louisiana Tech vs. Wyoming

2. Famous Idaho Potato—Nevada vs. Boise State

3. Poinsettia—Utah State vs. San Diego State

4. Hawaii—XXX

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

# Team PiRate
1 L S U 136.5
2 Alabama 135.0
3 Oregon 129.0
4 Southern Cal 127.1
5 Oklahoma 127.1
6 Stanford 127.1
7 Oklahoma St. 126.3
8 Arkansas 124.9
9 Wisconsin 124.1
10 TexasA&M 121.5
11 Boise St. 120.3
12 Michigan 119.7
13 Florida St. 119.1
14 Michigan St. 118.3
15 Georgia  117.8
16 Notre Dame 116.8
17 Houston 115.8
18 Missouri 114.9
19 Texas 114.6
20 S. Carolina 114.4
21 Kansas St. 114.2
22 T C U 114.1
23 Utah 112.8
24 California 112.8
25 Virginia Tech 112.3
26 Miami(FL) 112.3
27 Florida  111.8
28 Nebraska 111.4
29 Baylor 111.0
30 Tulsa 110.5
31 Arizona St. 110.0
32 B Y U 109.9
33 Clemson 109.6
34 Penn St. 108.4
35 Mississippi St. 108.1
36 U C L A 108.0
37 Ohio St. 107.4
38 Virginia 107.3
39 Vanderbilt 107.1
40 W. Virginia 107.0
41 Washington 107.0
42 Georgia Tech 106.4
43 Cincinnati 106.1
44 N. Carolina St. 105.9
45 Iowa 104.9
46 LouisianaTech 104.9
47 Oregon St. 104.9
48 Pittsburgh 104.6
49 Nevada 104.6
50 WakeForest 104.5
51 N. Carolina 104.2
52 Arizona 103.9
53 Auburn 103.6
54 Washington St. 103.6
55 Northwestern 103.4
56 Iowa St. 103.3
57 Southern Miss. 103.1
58 S. Florida 102.9
59 Tennessee 102.9
60 Illinois 102.0
61 Rutgers 102.0
62 BostonColl. 101.6
63 Louisville 101.5
64 Temple 99.6
65 Toledo 99.4
66 TexasTech 99.0
67 Purdue 98.6
68 Air Force 98.6
69 Utah St. 98.1
70 San Diego St. 97.1
71 Northern Illinois 96.6
72 Duke 96.1
73 Navy 95.4
74 Wyoming 95.2
75 Central Florida 94.6
76 Arkansas St. 94.5
77 Connecticut 94.0
78 Kentucky 93.7
79 Western Michigan 93.6
80 Hawaii 93.5
81 Minnesota 93.2
82 S M U 93.0
83 San Jose St. 92.8
84 Fresno St. 92.0
85 East Carolina 91.9
86 Colorado 91.6
87 Maryland 91.4
88 Syracuse 91.3
89 Miami(O) 90.6
90 Ole Miss 89.3
91 FloridaInt’l 89.1
92 OhioU 88.7
93 WesternKy. 88.6
94 Kansas 87.8
95 U T E P 86.1
96 UL-Lafayette 85.7
97 Colorado St. 85.4
98 Idaho 85.3
99 UL-Monroe 84.8
100 New Mexico St. 84.6
101 Marshall 84.4
102 Ball St. 83.4
103 Army 83.0
104 Rice 82.8
105 Bowling Green 82.7
106 U A B 82.2
107 Kent St. 81.7
108 Indiana 81.7
109 Eastern Michigan 80.4
110 North Texas 79.3
111 Buffalo 77.5
112 U N L V 77.4
113 Troy 76.9
114 Central Michigan 76.5
115 MiddleTennessee 72.8
116 New Mexico 71.1
117 Tulane 68.7
118 Memphis 68.2
119 FloridaAtlantic 61.8
120 Akron 59.1

 

By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

5-3

7-4

119.1

Clemson

6-2

9-2

109.6

North CarolinaState

3-4

6-5

105.9

WakeForest

5-3

6-5

104.5

BostonCollege

2-5

3-8

101.6

Maryland

1-6

2-9

91.4

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

6-1

10-1

112.3

Miami-FL

3-4

6-5

112.3

Virginia

5-2

8-3

107.3

Georgia Tech

5-3

8-3

106.4

North Carolina

2-5

6-5

104.2

Duke

1-6

3-8

96.1

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

West Virginia

3-2

7-3

107.0

Cincinnati

3-2

7-3

106.1

Pittsburgh

3-2

5-5

104.6

South Florida

1-4

5-5

102.9

Rutgers

4-2

8-3

102.0

Louisville

4-2

6-5

101.5

Connecticut

2-3

4-6

94.0

Syracuse

1-4

5-5

91.3

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

5-2

9-2

124.1

PennState

6-1

9-2

108.4

OhioState

3-4

6-5

107.4

Illinois

2-5

6-5

102.0

Purdue

3-4

5-6

98.6

Indiana

0-7

1-10

81.7

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Michigan

5-2

9-2

119.7

MichiganState

6-1

9-2

118.3

Nebraska

4-3

8-3

111.4

Iowa

4-3

7-4

104.9

Northwestern

3-4

6-5

103.4

Minnesota

1-6

2-9

93.2

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

5-2

8-2

127.1

OklahomaState

7-1

10-1

126.3

TexasA&M

4-4

6-5

121.5

Missouri

4-4

6-5

114.9

Texas

3-4

6-4

114.6

KansasState

6-2

9-2

114.2

Baylor

4-3

7-3

111.0

IowaState

3-4

6-4

103.3

TexasTech

2-6

5-6

99.0

Kansas

0-8

2-9

87.8

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

5-2

9-2

103.1

Central Florida

2-5

4-7

94.6

East Carolina

4-3

5-6

91.9

Marshall

4-3

5-6

84.4

U A B

3-5

3-8

82.2

Memphis

1-5

2-9

68.2

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

7-0

11-0

115.8

Tulsa

7-0

8-3

110.5

S M U

4-3

6-5

93.0

U T E P

2-5

5-6

86.1

Rice

3-4

4-7

82.8

Tulane

1-7

2-10

68.7

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

8-3

116.8

B Y U  

8-3

109.9

Navy  

4-7

95.4

Army  

3-8

83.0

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

4-3

7-4

99.6

Miami(O)

3-4

4-7

90.6

OhioU

5-2

8-3

88.7

Bowling Green

2-5

4-7

82.7

Kent St.

4-3

5-6

81.7

Buffalo

2-5

3-8

77.5

Akron

0-7

1-10

59.1

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

6-1

7-4

99.4

Northern Illinois

6-1

8-3

96.6

Western Michigan

4-3

6-5

93.6

BallState

4-3

6-5

83.4

Eastern Michigan

4-3

6-5

80.4

Central Michigan

2-6

3-9

76.5

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

BoiseState

4-1

9-1

120.3

T C U

6-0

9-2

114.1

Air Force

2-4

6-5

98.6

San DiegoState

3-3

6-4

97.1

Wyoming

4-1

7-3

95.2

ColoradoState

1-4

3-7

85.4

UNLV

1-4

2-8

77.4

New Mexico

1-5

1-10

71.1

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oregon

7-1

9-2

129.0

Stanford

8-1

10-1

127.1

California

3-5

6-5

112.8

Washington

4-4

6-5

107.0

OregonState

3-5

3-8

104.9

WashingtonState

2-6

4-7

103.6

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

U S C

6-2

9-2

127.1

Utah

4-4

7-4

112.8

ArizonaState

4-4

6-5

110.0

U C L A

5-3

6-5

108.0

Arizona

2-6

3-8

103.9

Colorado

1-7

2-10

91.6

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Georgia

7-1

9-2

117.8

South Carolina

6-2

9-2

114.4

Florida

3-5

6-5

111.8

Vanderbilt

2-6

5-6

107.1

Tennessee

1-6

5-6

102.9

Kentucky

1-6

4-7

93.7

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

L S U

7-0

11-0

136.5

Alabama

6-1

10-1

135.0

Arkansas

6-1

10-1

124.9

MississippiState

1-6

5-6

108.1

Auburn

4-3

7-4

103.6

Ole Miss

0-7

2-9

89.3

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

ArkansasState

7-0

9-2

94.5

FloridaInternational

4-3

7-4

89.1

Western Kentucky

6-1

6-5

88.6

U.ofLouisiana

6-2

8-3

85.7

Louisiana-Monroe

2-5

3-8

84.8

North Texas

3-4

4-7

79.3

Troy

2-4

3-7

76.9

MiddleTennessee

1-5

2-8

72.8

FloridaAtlantic

0-7

0-10

61.8

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

LouisianaTech

5-1

7-4

104.9

Nevada

4-1

6-4

104.6

UtahState

3-2

5-5

98.1

Hawaii

3-4

5-6

93.5

San JoseState

2-4

4-7

92.8

FresnoState

3-3

4-7

92.0

Idaho

1-5

2-9

85.3

New MexicoState

2-3

4-7

84.6

 

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

Tuesday, November 22  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

OHIO U Miami (O)

0.6

27-26

8 1/2

   

 

 

 

Thursday, November 24  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

TEXAS A&M Texas

9.9

34-24

8   

   

 

 

 

Friday, November 25  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Bowling Green BUFFALO

2.7

27-24

-1 1/2

NORTHERN ILLINOIS Eastern Michigan

19.2

40-21

20   

TEMPLE Kent St.

20.4

30-10

17   

WESTERN MICHIGAN Akron

37.5

48-10

28   

Toledo BALL ST.

13.2

37-24

12 1/2

SOUTH FLORIDA Louisville

4.4

24-20

3   

Houston TULSA

2.3

37-35

3   

NEBRASKA Iowa

9.5

24-14

9 1/2

WEST VIRGINIA Pittsburgh

4.9

28-23

7   

L S U Arkansas

14.6

35-20

12 1/2

UTAH Colorado

24.2

38-14

20 1/2

MIAMI (FL) Boston College

14.2

27-13

14 ½

CENTRAL FLORIDA U t e p

11.5

35-23

10   

ARIZONA ST. California

0.2

27-27 to ot

5 ½

   

 

 

 

Saturday, November 26  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

MICHIGAN Ohio St.

15.3

24-9

8   

Missouri   (n) Kansas

27.1

41-14

23 ½

Rutgers CONNECTICUT

5.5

30-24

3   

Cincinnati SYRACUSE

11.8

31-19

3   

Michigan St. NORTHWESTERN

11.9

40-28

6 1/2

Purdue INDIANA

14.4

35-21

7 1/2

Illinois MINNESOTA

5.8

28-22

10 1/2

Georgia GEORGIA TECH

8.9

33-24

6   

WAKE FOREST Vanderbilt

0.4

28-28 to ot

-1 1/2

SOUTH CAROLINA Clemson

7.3

28-21

4   

NORTH CAROLINA ST. Maryland

17.5

35-17

12 1/2

NORTH CAROLINA Duke

10.1

34-24

13   

Tennessee KENTUCKY

6.2

20-14

8   

BOISE ST. Wyoming

28.1

45-17

32   

Nevada UTAH ST.

3.5

31-27

-1 1/2

S M U Rice

13.2

34-21

14   

Alabama AUBURN

28.4

41-13

21   

OREGON Oregon St.

27.1

48-21

28   

Virginia Tech VIRGINIA

2.0

22-20

5   

WISCONSIN Penn St.

18.7

31-12

14 1/2

Baylor     (n) Texas Tech

12.0

40-28

12 1/2

Florida St. FLORIDA

4.3

30-26

2 1/2

East Carolina MARSHALL

4.5

35-30

1   

LOUISIANA TECH New Mexico St.

13.3

31-18

19   

SOUTHERN MISS. Memphis

37.4

40-3

35 1/2

Air Force COLORADO ST.

10.7

31-20

16 1/2

WASHINGTON Washington St.

6.4

27-21

6 1/2

MISSISSIPPI ST. Ole Miss

21.8

35-13

17 1/2

STANFORD Notre Dame

13.3

34-21

6 1/2

FRESNO ST. San Jose St.

2.2

27-25

6 1/2

OKLAHOMA Iowa St.

26.8

45-18

28   

San Diego St. U N L V

17.2

34-17

15   

SOUTHERN CAL U c l a

21.1

38-17

14 1/2

HAWAII Tulane

28.8

42-13

18   

WESTERN KENTUCKY Troy

14.7

27-12

6 1/2

ARIZONA Louisiana-Lafayette

21.2

42-21

14   

Florida Int’l MIDDLE TENNESSEE

13.3

27-14

9   

U a b FLORIDA ATLANTIC

17.4

34-17

6 1/2

 

November 13, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football for November 15-19, 2011

“Are You Nuts?”

One of our loyal readers asked this question of us last week, when we had Texas A&M ranked number 11, even though the Aggies were 5-4.

 

The short answer to that question is, “probably,” but that is beside the point.  The PiRate Ratings are not rankings based on what a team has done to this point in the season.  Our ratings are 95% predictive; they are meant to indicate where a team is for the coming week’s games.

 

So, even though the future SEC member lost to drop to 5-5, Texas A&M remains at number 14 in the PiRate Ratings.

 

Let us take a look back at yesteryear to further explain how a team like A&M could still be ranked so highly.  We’ll set the time machine back to 1957.  The PiRate Ratings had not yet been created, since none of the PiRates had been created.

 

The team in question in 1957 is Illinois.  The Fighting Illini finished 4-5 that year (Big Ten teams only played nine games a year until the 1960’s and Ohio State still played nine games in 1969).

 

To say that Illinois faced a tough schedule is an understatement.  It was brutal.  The boys from Champaign-Urbana finished the season 4-5, yet some ratings that year gave them the merit they deserved and ranked them in their final ratings.  Even the AP had them rated in the top 20 after seven games, when their record was 3-4.

 

Coach Ray Eliot had some stars on that team, two of whom you may have heard about, because they are in the NFL Hall of Fame.  Linebacker Ray Nitschke became one of the best ever defenders in the NFL, as he led the great Green Bay Packer defenses to five NFL Championships.  Bobby Mitchell began his NFL career as the other back in the Cleveland Browns’ backfield (to Jim Brown).  He earned his Hall of Fame induction after he was traded to the Washington Redskins and was moved to flanker, where he was on the receiving end of hundreds of Sonny Jergensen passes.

 

Illinois opened the season against UCLA at the L. A. Coliseum.  Coach Red Sanders’ Bruins were picked to win the Pacific Coast Conference and go to the Rose Bowl.  They had already played Air Force and won 47-0.  Illinois gave UCLA a good game, but the Bruins prevailed 16-6 en route to an 8-2 season.

 

The following week, Illinois blew out Colgate 40-0.  At 1-1, the Illini ventured to Columbus, Ohio, to take on Ohio State.  The Buckeyes would emerge as the UPI National Champion, as Woody Hayes’ Scarlet and Gray epitomized his “three yards and a cloud of dust” offense that year, setting Ohio State rushing records.  Illinois fought hard and still had a chance to win late in the game, but Ohio State prevailed 21-7.

 

The Illini returned home the following week and hosted number four Minnesota.  The Gophers were 3-0, outscoring opponents 108 to 30.  Illinois played spectacularly and not only pulled off the upset, they slaughtered the Gophers 34-13.

 

Illinois entered the top 20 at number 16 the next week.  The following week, Illinois played at number eight Michigan State (who would finish the season at number two in the UPI Poll and number one in a couple of polls).  The Illini gave Sparty a great game, falling short 19-14 to fall to 2-3.

 

Next up was a visit from Purdue, the only team to beat Michigan State in 1957.  The Boilermakers had the best quarterback in the Big Ten and a future NFL Hall of Famer in Len Dawson.  Illinois fell 21-6, and their record was now 2-4.

 

The following week, Illinois pulled off another big upset, besting number 11 Michigan 20-19.  At 3-4, the Illini actually moved back into the top 20 at number 15.

 

Illinois could not catch a break, as they had to venture to Camp Randall Stadium to play rival Wisconsin, yet another team headed to a finish in the rankings, at number 14.  UW won 24-13, and Illinois was assured of a losing season.

 

The season ended with a visit from rival Northwestern, and Illinois wiped the Wildcats off the field with a 27-0 win to cap off what could have been the best season ever by a team with a losing record.

 

Back to 2011.  Texas A&M began the season with a blowout of SMU, a team that will be bowl bound this year.  They disposed of a weak Idaho team in week two.  In week three, they fell to current number two Oklahoma State 30-29 after blowing a 17-point lead.  They followed it up with a similar loss to current number six Arkansas, blowing a large lead before losing 42-38.  After a five-point win over Texas Tech, before the Red Raiders collapsed, A&M put a major whipping on Baylor by 27 points.  They won at Iowa State by 16 to move to 5-2.  The Aggies have lost three in a row since then, blowing yet another large lead to future SEC rival Missouri, losing to Oklahoma in a game where they proved to be good enough to compete if they had eliminated mistakes, and losing in four overtimes to Kansas State.

 

At 5-5, Texas A&M could easily be 9-1 with wins over Oklahoma State, Arkansas, and Kansas State.  They finish with Kansas and Texas and could easily be 6-6 when the bowl are doled out.  They could be pitted against another 6-6 or 7-5 team in their bowl, and it very well may be a huge mismatch.

 

Congrats to Ron English

It went mostly unnoticed this week, but Eastern Michigan became bowl-eligible with a win over Buffalo.  The 6-4 Eagles were expected to win maybe two or three games this year, which would have been a major improvement in itself.  EMU was a combined 2-22 in 2009 and 2010.

 

Here are the PiRate Ratings For This Week

 

#

Team

PiRate

1

L S U

135.5

2

Alabama

135.0

3

Oregon

132.0

4

Oklahoma St.

131.6

5

Oklahoma

131.6

6

Stanford

129.6

7

Wisconsin

124.8

8

Southern Cal

123.9

9

Florida St.

122.6

10

Arkansas

121.9

11

Boise St.

120.2

12

Georgia 

119.8

13

Notre Dame

119.5

14

Texas A&M

119.3

15

Missouri

117.2

16

Michigan St.

116.4

17

Texas

115.8

18

Michigan

115.7

19

Nebraska

114.9

20

T C U

114.8

21

S. Carolina

114.7

22

Houston

114.5

23

Clemson

114.3

24

Utah

113.1

25

Virginia Tech

113.0

26

Arizona St.

112.8

27

Kansas St.

112.7

28

Miami (FL)

112.5

29

Florida 

112.3

30

Washington

110.7

31

Mississippi St.

110.5

32

California

110.0

33

Tulsa

108.7

34

Cincinnati

108.7

35

B Y U

108.4

36

Ohio St.

108.4

37

Vanderbilt

108.1

38

Southern Miss.

107.6

39

Penn St.

107.1

40

W. Virginia

107.0

41

Nevada

106.2

42

Georgia Tech

106.1

43

Baylor

106.0

44

Pittsburgh

104.6

45

U C L A

104.5

46

Iowa

103.9

47

Virginia

103.6

48

Auburn

103.6

49

Northwestern

103.3

50

N. Carolina

103.2

51

Wake Forest

103.2

52

Washington St.

102.8

53

LouisianaTech

102.8

54

S. Florida

102.7

55

N. Carolina St.

101.7

56

Oregon St.

101.7

57

Tennessee

101.6

58

Arizona

101.4

59

Illinois

101.3

60

Louisville

99.9

61

Purdue

99.3

62

Utah St.

99.3

63

Rutgers

99.1

64

Boston Coll.

98.9

65

Toledo

98.2

66

Iowa St.

98.2

67

Air Force

97.9

68

Temple

97.3

69

Northern Illinois

97.3

70

San Diego St.

97.2

71

Texas Tech

97.2

72

Central Florida

96.9

73

Navy

96.7

74

Hawaii

96.6

75

Duke

96.2

76

Wyoming

95.9

77

Connecticut

95.3

78

Colorado

95.3

79

S M U

94.3

80

Arkansas St.

93.5

81

Minnesota

93.3

82

Maryland

93.2

83

Western Michigan

93.1

84

San Jose St.

92.0

85

Syracuse

91.3

86

Miami (O)

91.1

87

Kentucky

91.1

88

Ole Miss

90.5

89

Kansas

90.3

90

East Carolina

90.1

91

Fresno St.

89.4

92

Ohio U

88.9

93

U T E P

88.4

94

Western Ky.

87.8

95

Florida Int’l

87.7

96

New Mexico St.

85.8

97

Marshall

85.8

98

Army

85.6

99

UL-Lafayette

85.4

100

UL-Monroe

85.4

101

Colorado St.

84.4

102

Rice

84.1

103

Idaho

83.8

104

Indiana

83.2

105

Bowling Green

82.5

106

Ball St.

82.2

107

Kent St.

81.2

108

Eastern Michigan

80.9

109

North Texas

80.1

110

U A B

78.2

111

U N L V

78.1

112

Central Michigan

77.7

113

Troy

75.8

114

Middle Tennessee

73.5

115

Buffalo

73.0

116

New Mexico

70.4

117

Tulane

67.7

118

Memphis

66.8

119

Akron

65.1

120

Florida Atlantic

63.2

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

5-2

7-3

122.6

Clemson

6-1

9-1

114.3

WakeForest

4-3

5-5

103.2

North CarolinaState

2-4

5-5

101.7

BostonCollege

2-5

3-7

98.9

Maryland

1-5

2-8

93.2

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

5-1

9-1

113.0

Miami-FL

3-4

5-5

112.5

Georgia Tech

4-3

7-3

106.1

Virginia

4-2

7-3

103.6

North Carolina

2-4

6-4

103.2

Duke

1-5

3-7

96.2

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Cincinnati

3-1

7-2

108.7

West Virginia

3-2

7-3

107.0

Pittsburgh

3-2

5-5

104.6

South Florida

1-4

5-4

102.7

Louisville

3-2

5-5

99.9

Rutgers

3-2

7-3

99.1

Connecticut

2-2

4-5

95.3

Syracuse

1-4

5-5

91.3

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

4-2

8-2

124.8

OhioState

3-3

6-4

108.4

PennState

5-1

8-2

107.1

Illinois

2-4

6-4

101.3

Purdue

3-3

5-5

99.3

Indiana

0-6

1-9

83.2

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

MichiganState

5-1

8-2

116.4

Michigan

4-2

8-2

115.7

Nebraska

4-2

8-2

114.9

Iowa

3-3

6-4

103.9

Northwestern

2-4

5-5

103.3

Minnesota

1-5

2-8

93.3

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma State

7-0

10-0

131.6

Oklahoma

5-1

8-1

131.6

Texas A&M

3-4

5-5

119.3

Missouri

3-4

5-5

117.2

Texas

3-3

6-3

115.8

Kansas State

5-2

8-2

112.7

Baylor

3-3

6-3

106.0

Iowa State

2-4

5-4

98.2

Texas Tech

2-5

5-5

97.2

Kansas

0-7

2-8

90.3

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

5-1

9-1

107.6

Central Florida

2-4

4-6

96.9

East Carolina

3-3

4-6

90.1

Marshall

3-3

4-6

85.8

U A B

2-5

2-8

78.2

Memphis

1-4

2-8

66.8

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

6-0

10-0

114.5

Tulsa

6-0

7-3

108.7

S M U

4-2

6-4

94.3

U T E P

2-4

5-5

88.4

Rice

2-4

3-7

84.1

Tulane

1-6

2-9

67.7

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

7-3

119.5

B Y U  

7-3

108.4

Navy  

4-6

96.7

Army  

3-7

85.6

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

4-3

6-4

97.3

Miami (O)

3-3

4-6

91.1

Ohio U

4-2

7-3

88.9

Bowling Green

2-4

4-6

82.5

Kent St.

3-3

4-6

81.2

Buffalo

1-5

2-8

73.0

Akron

0-6

1-9

65.1

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

5-1

6-4

98.2

Northern Illinois

5-1

7-3

97.3

Western Michigan

3-3

5-5

93.1

Ball State

4-2

6-4

82.2

Eastern Michigan

4-2

6-4

80.9

Central Michigan

2-5

3-8

77.7

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Boise State

3-1

8-1

120.2

T C U

5-0

8-2

114.8

Air Force

1-4

5-5

97.9

San Diego State

3-2

6-3

97.2

Wyoming

3-1

6-3

95.9

Colorado State

1-3

3-6

84.4

UNLV

1-3

2-7

78.1

New Mexico

1-4

1-9

70.4

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oregon

7-0

9-1

132.0

Stanford

7-1

9-1

129.6

Washington

4-3

6-4

110.7

California

3-4

6-4

110.0

WashingtonState

2-5

4-6

102.8

OregonState

2-5

2-8

101.7

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

U S C

5-2

8-2

123.9

Utah

3-4

6-4

113.1

ArizonaState

4-3

6-4

112.8

U C L A

4-3

5-5

104.5

Arizona

1-6

2-8

101.4

Colorado

1-6

2-9

95.3

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Georgia

6-1

8-2

119.8

South Carolina

6-2

8-2

114.7

Florida

3-5

5-5

112.3

Vanderbilt

2-5

5-5

108.1

Tennessee

0-6

4-6

101.6

Kentucky

1-5

4-6

91.1

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

L S U

6-0

10-0

135.5

Alabama

6-1

9-1

135.0

Arkansas

5-1

9-1

121.9

Mississippi State

1-5

5-5

110.5

Auburn

4-3

6-4

103.6

Ole Miss

0-6

2-8

90.5

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Arkansas State

6-0

8-2

93.5

Western Kentucky

5-1

5-5

87.8

Florida International

3-3

6-4

87.7

Louisiana-Monroe

2-4

3-7

85.9

U. of Louisiana

6-2

8-3

84.9

North Texas

3-3

4-6

80.1

Troy

1-4

2-7

75.8

Middle Tennessee

1-4

2-7

73.5

Florida Atlantic

0-6

0-9

63.2

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nevada

4-0

6-3

106.2

Louisiana Tech

4-1

6-4

102.8

Utah State

2-2

4-5

99.3

Hawaii

3-3

5-5

96.6

San Jose State

2-4

3-7

92.0

Fresno State

2-3

3-7

89.4

New Mexico State

2-3

4-6

85.8

Idaho

1-4

2-8

83.8

 

Here are this week’s PiRate Spreads.

 

Tuesday, November 15  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

NORTHERN ILLINOIS Ball St.

18.1

42-24

17   

   

 

 

 

Wednesday, November 16  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

MIAMI (O) Western Michigan

1.0

34-33

1   

Ohio U BOWLING GREEN

3.9

31-27

5   

   

 

 

 

Thursday, November 17  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

VIRGINIA TECH North Carolina

13.3

23-10

13   

Marshall MEMPHIS

16.5

34-17

13   

Southern Miss. U A B

26.9

37-10

22 1/2

   

 

 

 

Friday, November 18  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Toledo CENTRAL MICHIGAN

18.0

45-27

15   

Oklahoma St. IOWA ST.

30.4

47-17

27 1/2

   

 

 

 

Saturday, November 19  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

NORTHWESTERN Minnesota

13.0

34-21

15 1/2

Wisconsin ILLINOIS

20.5

38-17

13 1/2

Iowa PURDUE

1.6

28-26

2 1/2

MICHIGAN ST. Indiana

36.7

51-17

28   

Louisville CONNECTICUT

1.6

24-22

1   

Georgia Tech DUKE

7.4

31-24

10   

WAKE FOREST Maryland

12.5

30-17

12   

FLORIDA ST. Virginia

22.0

38-16

18   

Clemson NORTH CAROLINA ST.

9.6

27-17

10   

BUFFALO Akron

10.4

31-21

10   

GEORGIA Kentucky

32.2

42-10

29 1/2

Vanderbilt TENNESSEE

3.5

28-24

1   

MISSOURI Texas Tech

23.0

44-21

16 1/2

KENT ST. Eastern Michigan

2.8

31-28

6 1/2

TEMPLE Army

14.2

31-17

NL

WYOMING New Mexico

28.5

42-13

26   

B Y U New Mexico St.

25.6

45-19

22 1/2

Tulsa U T E P

17.3

41-24

NL

RICE Tulane

18.9

38-19

12 1/2

TEXAS A&M Kansas

32.0

49-17

30   

Utah WASHINGTON ST.

6.8

30-23

6   

L s u OLE MISS

42.0

45-3

30 1/2

T C U Colorado St.

33.4

40-7

35 1/2

Washington OREGON ST.

6.0

30-24

3   

ARIZONA ST. Arizona

13.9

31-17

14 1/2

STANFORD California

22.1

42-20

20 1/2

MICHIGAN Nebraska

3.8

24-20

2 1/2

U C L A Colorado

12.2

28-16

14   

Central Florida EAST CAROLINA

3.8

31-27

8   

OHIO ST. Penn St.

4.3

14-10

5 1/2

Cincinnati RUTGERS

6.6

31-24

1 1/2

TEXAS Kansas St.

6.1

34-28

7   

NOTRE DAME Boston College

23.6

34-10

24 1/2

Navy SAN JOSE ST.

1.7

26-24

5 1/2

NEVADA Louisiana Tech

6.9

35-28

7 1/2

Utah St. IDAHO

12.5

37-24

7   

AIR FORCE U n l v

22.8

33-10

NL

HOUSTON S m u

23.2

44-21

21 1/2

ARKANSAS Mississippi St.

14.4

31-17

14 1/2

Miami (FL) SOUTH FLORIDA

6.8

28-21

1 1/2

Oklahoma BAYLOR

22.6

42-19

14   

OREGON Southern Cal

11.6

31-19

16 1/2

Boise St. SAN DIEGO ST.

20.0

37-17

20   

HAWAII Fresno St.

11.2

35-24

4   

TROY Florida Atlantic

15.1

35-20

14 1/2

Western Kentucky NORTH TEXAS

4.7

28-23

2 1/2

LOUISIANA-MONROE Florida Int’l

0.7

28-27

-1   

Arkansas St. MIDDLETENNESSEE

18.5

31-12

11   

 

 

And, here is our Bowl speculation for the week.

 

Bowl

Conference

Conference

Team

Team

New Mexico

MWC # 5

Pac12 #7 / WAC

Wyoming

Nevada

Famous Idaho Potato

MWC #2 or 4

WAC

Boise St.

Utah St.

New Orleans

Sunbelt #1

C-USA

Arkansas St.

(Louisville)

Beef O’Brady’s

Big East #6

C-USA

South Florida

Florida Int’l

Poinsettia

MWC #2 or 4

WAC

San Diego St.

Louisiana Tech

MAACO

MWC #1

Pac 12 #5

T C U

Utah

Hawaii

WAC

C-USA

Hawaii

S M U

Independence

ACC #7

MWC #3

Miami (Fl)

Air Force

Little Caesar’s Pizza

Big 10 #8

MAC #2

Illinois

Toledo

Belk

ACC #5

Big East #3

North Carolina

West Va.

Military

ACC #8

Navy

Virginia

Navy

Holiday

Pac 12 #3

Big 12 #5

Arizona St.

Texas A&M

Champs Sports

Big East #2

ACC #3

Notre Dame

Florida St.

Alamo

Big 12 #3

Pac 10 #2

Kansas St.

Washington

Armed Forces

C-USA #3

B Y U

Marshall

B Y U

Pinstripe

Big East #4

Big 12 #7

Pittsburgh

(Northwestern)

Music City

SEC # 7

ACC #6

Mississippi St.

North Carolina St.

Insight

Big 12 #4

Big 10 #4 or 5

Missouri

Penn St.

Meineke Car Care of Texas

Big 12 #6

Big 10 #6

Baylor

Ohio St.

Sun

ACC #4

Pac 12 #4

Georgia Tech

California

Kraft Fight Hunger

Pac 10 #6

Army/ACC

U C L A

Wake Forest

Liberty

SEC#8-9/BigEast

C-USA #1

Vanderbilt

Southern Miss.

Chick-fil-A

SEC #5

ACC #2

Auburn

Clemson

TicketCity

Big 10 #7

C-USA

Iowa

Tulsa

Capital One

Big 10 #2

SEC #2

Michigan St.

Arkansas

Gator

Big 10 #4 or 5

SEC #6

Nebraska

Florida

Outback

SEC #3 or 4

Big 10 #3

South Carolina

Michigan

Rose

BCS Pac12

BCS Big 10

Oregon

Wisconsin

Fiesta

BCS Big 12

BCS At-Large

Oklahoma

Stanford

Sugar

BCS SEC

BCS At-Large

Alabama

Houston

Orange

BCS ACC

BCS At-Large

Va. Tech

Rutgers

Cotton

Big 12 #2

SEC #3 or 4

Texas

Georgia

BBVA Compass

Big East#5/CUSA

SEC #8 or 9

Cincinnati

Western Ky.

GoDaddy.com

Sunbelt # 2

MAC #1

Louisiana-Laf.

Northern Illinois

National Championship

*** BCS #1 ***

*** BCS #2 ***

L S U

Oklahoma St.

 

November 7, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football for November 8-12, 2011

The Conference Races & The Bowls

The Search For 70 Bowl Eligible Teams

 

With 35 bowls, the Football Bowl Subdivision needs 70 bowl-eligible teams to fill those spots.  Remember, we cannot include Southern Cal in that list, because they are ineligible for a bowl game this year.  Since there are only 120 total FBS schools, it requires a lot of teams to get to six wins by virtue of defeating a team from the Football Championship Subdivision, formerly known as I-AA.  There are only four more FBS versus FCS games this year, all involving teams from the SEC.  Three of those SEC teams are already bowl eligible, so only the Florida-Furman game can help an FBS team become bowl eligible. 

 

If there are fewer than 70 bowl eligible teams, the NCAA supposedly will allow teams with a losing record to earn bowl bids.  The last team with a losing record to earn a bowl bid was North Texas in 2001, but the Mean Green earned their bid by winning the Sunbelt Conference championship.  William and Mary won the Southern Conference title and earned the automatic bid to the Tangerine Bowl, even though they were just 5-6 overall.  SMU, at 4-6, was invited to the Sun Bowl in 1963.  Will it happen again in 2011?  Let’s look at the conference breakdown and count who we think will make it.

 

ACC

Atlantic

Clemson leads Florida State and Wake Forest by one full game.  The Tigers have already defeated the Seminoles, and if they defeat Wake Forest this weekend, they will wrap up a spot in the ACC Championship Game.  If the Demon Deacons win, then all three teams will be alive having gone 1-1 against each other.

 

Coastal

Virginia Tech leads Georgia Tech by a half-game and Virginia by a full game, and the Hokies must play both teams.  They face Georgia Tech in Atlanta on Thursday. 

 

Bowl Eligible (6)

Florida St., Clemson, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Virginia

 

Bowl Probable (3)

North Carolina St., Wake Forest, and Miami need each need one more win and each have two winnable games left.

 

Big East

All eight teams are still in contention to be bowl eligible.  Cincinnati leads with a 3-0 conference record, while Louisville is a half game back at 3-1, losing to the Bearcats in October.  West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Connecticut have two conference losses.

 

This race is a mess, and we believe that five of the eight teams will end up bowl eligible.  Throw in Notre Dame, since the Irish will not earn a BCS Bowl Bid, and you have six bowl eligibles.

 

Bowl Eligible (4)

Cincinnati, Notre Dame, West Virginia, and Rutgers

 

Bowl Probable (2)

Louisville and Syracuse

 

The Cardinals and the Orangemen both have five wins.  UL can win all three of their remaining games, so it should be a slam dunk for Coach Charlie Strong’s club.  Syracuse and South Florida square off at the Carrier Dome Friday night, and the loser will probably be eliminated.

 

We believe Pittsburgh and Connecticut will both fall a game short, but both still have legitimate shots at getting to six wins.  As for South Florida, the Bulls must win at Syracuse this week, or we believe they are out of the picture.

 

Big Ten

The first year of the 12-team Big Ten has been a disappointment as no teams are in contention for the big prize, and the Rose Bowl participant will more than likely have two or even three losses.

 

Bowl Eligible (8)

Wisconsin, Ohio St., Penn St., Illinois, Michigan St., Nebraska, Michigan, and Iowa

 

Bowl Probable (1)

Northwestern

 

Northwestern has four wins, but their next two games are at home against Rice and Minnesota.  We believe they will win both to become bowl eligible.

 

Purdue is 4-5.  They must upset either Ohio State or Iowa and then beat Indiana to become bowl eligible.  We do not see the Boilermakers becoming Spoilermakers this year.

 

Big 12

Oklahoma State has moved up to number two in the BCS Ratings, as they passed Alabama. We here at the PiRate Ratings still have Oklahoma rated a bit higher than Oklahoma State, but the Sooners’ have lost a key piece to their offense.  The big game OU-OSU game comes on December 3 in Stillwater at Boone Pickens Stadium.  Tickets for that game may be more expensive than a dozen barrels of oil.  The Cowboys get an extra week to prepare for the game, so all factors are on their side.  We think it will be a great game, but losing Ryan Broyles for the season will be a major blow for OU.  We call this game a tossup as of today.

 

Bowl Eligible (4)

Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, Kansas St., and Texas

 

Bowl Probable (3)

Texas A&M, Missouri, and Baylor

 

Texas A&M and Baylor need one more win, as does Iowa State and Texas Tech.  Missouri needs two more wins.

 

A&M has been a major disappointment, but the Aggies still have a home game with Kansas and should easily win that one to become bowl eligible.

 

Baylor plays at Kansas this week and faces Texas Tech at Cowboys Stadium on November 26.  The Bears will be in a bowl.

 

Missouri, just officially announced as the SEC’s 14th team beginning next season, has a home game with Texas Tech and a season-ender with Kansas at Arrowhead Stadium.

 

Texas Tech fell apart after upsetting Oklahoma.  The Red Raiders finish with Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Baylor, and unless they pull off another big upset, they will stay home in December.

 

Iowa State needs one more win, but the Cyclones finish with Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Kansas State.  The next big win in Ames may be won by Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, or Newt Gingrich at the Iowa Caucuses.

 

Conference USA

Houston has a very slim chance to get to a BCS Bowl, if the Cougars go 13-0 in the regular season.  They need Boise State to lose a game so they can be the highest-rated non automatic qualifying champion in the BCS Rankings.  They need Tulsa to be 8-3 and Southern Miss to be 11-1 when they face and beat them to end the regular season and win the conference championship game.  Then, they will still need for a couple top 10 teams to drop into the second 10.  It’s possible, but not probable, because it is going to be hard for anybody to knock off Boise State.

 

Bowl Eligible (4)

Houston, Southern Mississippi, Tulsa, and SMU

 

Bowl Probable (1)

Marshall

 

There are four teams with four wins, needing two more to become bowl eligible. However, with their schedules, we only believe one will get to six victories.

 

UTEP closes with East Carolina, Tulsa, and Central Florida.  The Miners’ easiest game prior to last week was against Rice, and the lost to the Owls.

 

Central Florida closes with Southern Miss, East Carolina, and UTEP.  Only the UTEP game is at home, and we cannot see UCF winning either road game.

 

East Carolina has a decent chance with games against UTEP, UCF, and Marshall, but only the UCF game is in Greenville.

 

Marshall should lose at Tulsa this weekend, but the Thundering Herd benefits from playing Memphis the following week before hosting East Carolina the week after.  They have the best chance at emerging with six wins.

 

Independents

We have already included Notre Dame in the Big East list because the Irish do not appear to be headed to a BCS Bowl.  They would have to win at Stanford and still need a lot of help.

 

Bowl Eligible (1)

Brigham Young

 

Bowl Probable (0)

This will open the door for two at-large bowl berths. Neither Army nor Navy appear to be headed to bowl eligibility.  Both are 3-6, so one is guaranteed to lose a seventh game when they face off on December 10.

 

Navy has tough games at SMU and San Jose State before taking on Army.  The Midshipmen have beaten Army 11 straight times, and it could be Army’s year to end that streak.

 

Army closes with Rutgers and Temple before taking on Navy.

 

Mid-American

Here is another muddled conference where 10 different teams have a chance to make it to the championship game.

 

In the East, Miami of Ohio has won three games in a row after a 1-5 start to move into a tie for first with Ohio.  Temple is a half game back, while Bowling Green and Kent State are one game back.

 

In the West, Northern Illinois and Toledo are tied at 4-1 in league play, but the Huskies own the tiebreak over the Rockets after winning their epic match 63-60.  Ball State, Western Michigan, and even Eastern Michigan are still mathematically alive.

 

Bowl Eligible (3)

Ohio, Northern Illinois, and Ball State

 

Bowl Probable (5)

Toledo, Temple, Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and Bowling Green

 

As many as three of these probable teams could be 6-6 and would serve as the last line of teams available for at-large bids.

 

Mountain West

Boise State is number five in the BCS rankings, and the Broncos will need help from several other teams to make it to the National Championship Game.  Oklahoma State and Stanford must lose, and Alabama may have to lose again or LSU may have to lose.

 

The funny thing about the Broncos this year is that we feel this is their weakest team in the last four years!  Their run defense is not as forceful as it has been the last five years, and Boise will have a tough time winning out with TCU, San Diego State, and Wyoming still to play.

 

Bowl Eligible (2)

Boise State and TCU

 

Bowl Probable (3)

San Diego State, Wyoming, and Air Force

 

All three teams need just one more win for bowl eligibility, and all three have two patsies on their schedules.  So, all three should have at least seven wins, and one team should get to eight.

 

However, with Boise State likely headed to a BCS Bowl (not the National Championship Game), the MWC will need six bowl eligible teams and will come up one short.

 

Pac-12

Stanford still has national title aspirations, and they will need to beat Oregon handily this week and then close with convincing wins over Cal and Notre Dame.  If the Cardinal can beat the Ducks by two touchdowns, it will at least establish a comparison with LSU.  LSU beat Oregon by 13 in the season opener.  Remember, Stanford has been hit hard by injuries to their receiving corps, while Oregon is coming into their Saturday game near full strength.

 

Bowl Eligible (4)

Stanford, Oregon, Washington, and Arizona State

 

Bowl Probable (3)

Utah, UCLA, and California

 

These three teams each need one more win to get to six and all three have really good shots at doing so.

 

Utah’s schedule gives them a chance to win out.  The Utes host UCLA, then go to fast-falling Washington State, before closing at home against Colorado.

 

UCLA has a home game with Colorado, and that alone will get them to six victories.  Road games at Utah and USC do not look promising, but if they win both, they will play in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship Game.

 

California should become bowl eligible this weekend when they host Oregon State.

 

Southeastern

11 of the 12 teams are still alive in the bowl eligibility race, and at least nine teams will get there.  The big news is that Alabama stayed in second place in the BCS rankings.  If they win out, they will be in the National Championship Game.

 

LSU has a tough home game with Arkansas, but the Tigers should run the table and meet Alabama in New Orleans for the National Championship.

 

Bowl Eligible (6)

LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia, and South Carolina

 

Bowl Probable (3)

Florida, Mississippi State, and Tennessee

 

Florida needs one more win and has a game with Furman, so the Gators are in.

 

Mississippi State needs one more win and should get it in the Egg Bowl against Ole Miss.

 

Tennessee, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt are 4-5 and need two more wins.  All three must play the other two and all three will probably lose their other game, which in all three cases come on the road against teams with winning records.  Because Tennessee has a long history of beating the other two, we will go with the Volunteers to beat Vanderbilt and Kentucky and become the ninth bowl eligible SEC team.

 

If both LSU and Alabama advance to the title game, the SEC will need 11 bowl eligible teams, so there could be two and even three at-large spots available for other teams.  If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, then the Tide and Tigers could play again.

 

Sunbelt

No SBC team has won 10 regular season games, but it could happen this year.  If Arkansas State defeats Louisiana (UL-Lafayette for those that do not realize the Ragin’ Cajuns call themselves “the University of Louisiana” these days), the Red Wolves will win out and go 10-2.

 

This league has benefitted from the at-large bowl bid in recent years, and it should be another season of getting at least one extra team in a bowl.

 

Bowl Eligible (2)

Arkansas State and U. of Louisiana

 

Bowl Probable (2)

Florida International and Western Kentucky

 

After starting 0-4, Western Kentucky has reeled off five straight wins, but that streak will come to a crashing halt this week.  The Hilltoppers play at LSU.

 

WAC

Two thirds through the season, no WAC team has become bowl eligible as of yet.  This league has four bowl allotments, and only three teams have five wins (no other team has even four yet).  To make matters worse, some teams will need seven wins to become eligible, because they play 13 regular season games.

 

Bowl Eligible (0)

 

Bowl Probable (4)

Nevada, Hawaii, Louisiana Tech, and Utah State

 

Nevada and Louisiana Tech face off in Reno on November 19, and the winner of that game will be the conference champion, while the loser will still become bowl eligible.

 

Hawaii has home games with an subpar Fresno State team and an inept Tulane team, so the Warriors will get their needed seven wins.

 

Utah State is a stretch, but we believe the Aggies have what it takes to win out including pulling off an upset over Nevada in Logan a week after the Wolf Pack beats Louisiana Tech.

 

Total Bowl Eligible as of November 7, 2011—44

 

Total Bowl Probable as of November 7, 2011—30

 

As of today, we see about 74 bowl eligible teams fighting for 70 bowl spots.  See our bowl possibilities at the end of this post.

 

Here is this week’s list of teams ranked from 1 to 120.

 

#

Team

PiRate

1

L S U

137.3

2

Alabama

136.9

3

Stanford

133.7

4

Oklahoma

131.5

5

Oregon

128.7

6

Oklahoma St.

127.4

7

Wisconsin

124.6

8

Florida St.

124.0

9

Boise St.

123.8

10

Southern Cal

122.2

11

TexasA&M

121.3

12

Notre Dame

119.4

13

Arkansas

118.1

14

Texas

117.1

15

Arizona St.

116.8

16

Missouri

115.8

17

Clemson

115.7

18

Georgia 

115.2

19

Nebraska

115.0

20

S. Carolina

114.6

21

Michigan

114.5

22

Michigan St.

114.1

23

Florida 

112.6

24

Washington

112.5

25

Houston

112.4

26

T C U

111.9

27

Utah

111.7

28

Virginia Tech

111.6

29

Miami(FL)

111.1

30

Kansas St.

110.3

31

Mississippi St.

110.0

32

Cincinnati

109.7

33

Ohio St.

109.6

34

Baylor

108.3

35

California

108.2

36

Southern Miss.

107.8

37

Georgia Tech

107.4

38

Auburn

107.4

39

Penn St.

107.0

40

U C L A

106.8

41

Vanderbilt

106.5

42

Iowa

106.0

43

W. Virginia

106.0

44

Arizona

106.0

45

Nevada

105.9

46

Tulsa

105.8

47

B Y U

105.5

48

Tennessee

104.4

49

Pittsburgh

103.8

50

Oregon St.

103.4

51

TexasTech

103.2

52

Northwestern

103.2

53

N. Carolina

103.2

54

Virginia

103.0

55

N. Carolina St.

102.5

56

Illinois

102.4

57

WakeForest

101.8

58

S. Florida

101.2

59

Air Force

100.8

60

Louisville

100.7

61

Utah St.

99.9

62

Washington St.

99.8

63

LouisianaTech

99.6

64

Toledo

99.0

65

Rutgers

98.9

66

San Diego St.

98.7

67

Iowa St.

98.2

68

BostonColl.

98.1

69

Temple

98.0

70

Purdue

97.5

71

Hawaii

96.9

72

S M U

96.5

73

Duke

96.3

74

Central Florida

96.1

75

Connecticut

95.3

76

Northern Illinois

95.0

77

Navy

94.4

78

Ole Miss

93.9

79

Minnesota

93.8

80

Maryland

93.6

81

Arkansas St.

93.0

82

Syracuse

93.0

83

Kentucky

92.8

84

Western Michigan

92.3

85

Wyoming

92.2

86

Colorado

92.0

87

East Carolina

91.7

88

Fresno St.

91.0

89

San Jose St.

90.9

90

Miami(O)

90.4

91

Marshall

88.3

92

OhioU

88.2

93

Kansas

88.0

94

U T E P

86.7

95

Idaho

86.7

96

Army

85.9

97

FloridaInt’l

85.8

98

UL-Lafayette

84.9

99

Bowling Green

84.7

100

WesternKy.

84.5

101

New Mexico St.

84.2

102

Rice

84.2

103

UL-Monroe

83.6

104

Indiana

83.2

105

Colorado St.

82.9

106

Ball St.

82.2

107

U N L V

82.2

108

Eastern Michigan

80.2

109

North Texas

79.6

110

Central Michigan

78.4

111

U A B

78.4

112

Kent St.

78.3

113

Troy

76.3

114

MiddleTennessee

76.2

115

Buffalo

73.5

116

Tulane

69.7

117

Akron

67.7

118

New Mexico

67.4

119

Memphis

66.9

120

FloridaAtlantic

65.6

 

The PiRate Ratings By Conference

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

4-2

6-3

124.0

Clemson

5-1

8-1

115.7

North CarolinaState

2-3

5-4

102.5

WakeForest

4-2

5-4

101.8

BostonCollege

1-5

2-7

98.1

Maryland

1-5

2-7

93.6

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

4-1

8-1

111.6

Miami-FL

3-3

5-4

111.1

Georgia Tech

4-2

7-2

107.4

North Carolina

2-4

6-4

103.2

Virginia

3-2

6-3

103.0

Duke

1-4

3-6

96.3

 

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Cincinnati

3-0

7-1

109.7

West Virginia

2-2

6-3

106.0

Pittsburgh

2-2

4-5

103.8

South Florida

0-4

4-4

101.2

Louisville

3-1

5-4

100.7

Rutgers

3-2

6-3

98.9

Connecticut

2-2

4-5

95.3

Syracuse

1-3

5-4

93.0

 

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

3-2

7-2

124.6

OhioState

3-2

6-3

109.6

PennState

5-0

8-1

107.0

Illinois

2-3

6-3

102.4

Purdue

2-3

4-5

97.5

Indiana

0-6

1-9

83.2

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nebraska

3-2

7-2

115.0

Michigan

3-2

7-2

114.5

MichiganState

4-1

7-2

114.1

Iowa

3-2

6-3

106.0

Northwestern

2-4

4-5

103.2

Minnesota

1-4

2-7

93.8

 

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

5-1

8-1

131.5

OklahomaState

6-0

9-0

127.4

TexasA&M

3-3

5-4

121.3

Texas

3-2

6-2

117.1

Missouri

2-4

4-5

115.8

KansasState

4-2

7-2

110.3

Baylor

2-3

5-3

108.3

TexasTech

2-4

5-4

103.2

IowaState

2-4

5-4

98.2

Kansas

0-6

2-7

88.0

 

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

4-1

8-1

107.8

Central Florida

2-3

4-5

96.1

East Carolina

3-2

4-5

91.7

Marshall

3-2

4-5

88.3

U A B

1-5

1-8

78.4

Memphis

1-3

2-7

66.9

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

5-0

9-0

112.4

Tulsa

5-0

6-3

105.8

S M U

4-2

6-3

96.5

U T E P

1-4

4-5

86.7

Rice

2-4

3-6

84.2

Tulane

1-5

2-8

69.7

 

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

6-3

119.4

B Y U  

6-3

105.5

Navy  

3-6

94.4

Army  

3-6

85.9

 

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

3-3

5-4

98.0

Miami(O)

3-2

4-5

90.4

OhioU

3-2

6-3

88.2

Bowling Green

2-3

4-5

84.7

Kent St.

2-3

3-6

78.3

Buffalo

1-4

2-7

73.5

Akron

0-5

1-8

67.7

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

4-1

5-4

99.0

Northern Illinois

4-1

6-3

95.0

Western Michigan

3-2

5-4

92.3

BallState

4-2

6-4

82.2

Eastern Michigan

3-2

5-4

80.2

Central Michigan

2-4

3-7

78.4

 

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

BoiseState

3-0

8-0

123.8

T C U

4-0

7-2

111.9

Air Force

1-3

5-4

100.8

San DiegoState

2-2

5-3

98.7

Wyoming

2-1

5-3

92.2

ColoradoState

1-2

3-5

82.9

UNLV

1-2

2-6

82.2

New Mexico

0-4

0-9

67.4

 

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Stanford

7-0

9-0

133.7

Oregon

6-0

8-1

128.7

Washington

4-2

6-3

112.5

California

2-4

5-4

108.2

OregonState

2-4

2-7

103.4

WashingtonState

1-5

3-6

99.8

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

U S C

4-2

7-2

122.2

ArizonaState

4-2

6-3

116.8

Utah

2-4

5-4

111.7

U C L A

4-2

5-4

106.8

Arizona

1-5

2-7

106.0

Colorado

0-6

1-9

92.0

 

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Georgia

5-1

7-2

115.2

South Carolina

5-2

7-2

114.6

Florida

3-4

5-4

112.6

Vanderbilt

1-5

4-5

106.5

Tennessee

0-5

4-5

104.4

Kentucky

1-4

4-5

92.8

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

L S U

6-0

9-0

137.3

Alabama

5-1

8-1

136.9

Arkansas

4-1

8-1

118.1

MississippiState

1-4

5-4

110.0

Auburn

4-2

6-3

107.4

Ole Miss

0-6

2-7

93.9

 

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

ArkansasState

5-0

7-2

93.0

FloridaInternational

2-3

5-4

85.8

U.ofLouisiana

6-1

8-2

84.9

Western Kentucky

5-1

5-4

84.5

Louisiana-Monroe

1-4

2-7

83.6

North Texas

2-3

3-6

79.6

Troy

1-3

2-6

76.3

MiddleTennessee

1-3

2-6

76.2

FloridaAtlantic

0-5

0-8

65.6

 

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nevada

3-0

5-3

105.9

UtahState

1-2

3-5

99.9

LouisianaTech

4-1

5-4

99.6

Hawaii

3-2

5-4

96.9

FresnoState

2-2

3-6

91.0

San JoseState

2-3

3-6

90.9

New MexicoState

1-3

3-6

84.2

Idaho

1-4

2-7

86.7

 

 

Here are the PiRate spreads for this week’s games.

 

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

Tuesday, November 1  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

TOLEDO Western Michigan

9.7

38-28

10   

Northern Illinois BOWLING GREEN

7.3

35-28

7   

   

 

 

 

Wednesday, November 2  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

TEMPLE Miami (O)

10.1

27-17

13   

   

 

 

 

Thursday, November 3  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Ohio U CENTRAL MICHIGAN

7.3

27-20

5   

Houston TULANE

40.2

50-10

33   

Virginia Tech GEORGIA TECH

1.2

26-25

-1   

   

 

 

 

Friday, November 4  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

South Florida SYRACUSE

4.7

28-23

4   

   

 

 

 

Saturday, November 5  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Pittsburgh LOUISVILLE

0.1

27-27 to ot

-3   

Ohio St. PURDUE

9.1

35-26

8   

Michigan ILLINOIS

9.1

30-21

3   

NORTHWESTERN Rice

22.0

45-23

15 1/2

VANDERBILT Kentucky

16.2

35-19

13   

CLEMSON Wake Forest

16.9

34-17

19 1/2

VIRGINIA Duke

9.7

34-24

8 1/2

North Carolina St. BOSTON COLLEGE

1.4

17-16

2   

EASTERN MICHIGAN Buffalo

9.2

33-24

2 1/2

Texas A&M KANSAS ST.

8.0

42-34

3   

Kent St. AKRON

8.1

28-20

6 1/2

Baylor KANSAS

17.3

38-21

17 1/2

AIR FORCE Wyoming

11.6

33-21

14   

B Y U Idaho

22.3

38-16

19 1/2

S M U Navy

5.1

35-30

6 1/2

UTAH ST. San Jose St.

12.0

38-26

11   

TULSA Marshall

20.5

38-17

16   

BOISE ST. T c u

14.9

38-23

15 1/2

FLORIDA ST. Miami (Fla)

15.4

31-16

10   

CINCINNATI West Virginia

6.7

31-24

3 1/2

Rutgers  (n) Army

13.0

27-12

8 1/2

MISSOURI Texas

1.7

38-36

-1 1/2

Nebraska PENN ST.

4.5

26-21

3   

Oklahoma St. TEXAS TECH

21.2

49-28

18   

Michigan St. IOWA

5.1

21-16

3   

ARKANSAS Tennessee

16.7

27-10

NL

SOUTH CAROLINA Florida

5.0

24-19

NL

SOUTHERN CAL Washington

13.2

34-21

13 1/2

GEORGIA Auburn

10.3

31-21

12 1/2

CALIFORNIA Oregon St.

7.8

28-20

9 1/2

STANFORD Oregon

8.0

38-30

3   

NEVADA Hawaii

12.5

34-21

10   

U a b MEMPHIS

9.0

23-14

7 1/2

San Diego St. COLORADO ST.

13.3

30-17

14 1/2

Alabama MISSISSIPPI ST.

23.9

34-10

18 1/2

Arizona St. WASHINGTON ST.

14.0

35-21

12 1/2

Louisiana Tech OLE MISS

2.7

27-24

-1   

Wisconsin MINNESOTA

27.8

49-21

28 1/2

Notre Dame  (n) Maryland

24.8

38-13

19   

Fresno St. NEW MEXICO ST.

4.3

31-27

NL

UTAH U c l a

7.9

27-19

7 1/2

SOUTHERN MISS. Central Florida

14.7

35-20

10   

East Carolina U T E P

2.5

31-28

-3 1/2

Arizona COLORADO

11.0

28-17

13 1/2

U n l v NEW MEXICO

12.3

28-16

8 1/2

ARKANSAS ST. Louisiana-Lafayette

11.1

38-27

9 1/2

North Texas TROY

0.8

27-26

NL

LOUISIANA-MONROE Middle Tennessee

11.2

28-17

5 1/2

FLORIDA INT’L Florida Atlantic

22.7

33-10

18 1/2

L S U Western Kentucky

56.3

56-0

41   

 

 

Bowl Speculation

(Team) means at-large selection.  The MAC and Sunbelt Get Them All!

 

Bowl

Conference

Conference

Team

Team

New Mexico

MWC # 5

Pac12 #7 / WAC

(Toledo)

Louisiana Tech

Famous Idaho Potato

MWC #2 or 4

WAC

Wyoming

Nevada

New Orleans

Sunbelt #1

C-USA

Arkansas St.

(Ball St.)

Beef O’Brady’s

Big East #6

C-USA

Syracuse

Marshall

Poinsettia

MWC #2 or 4

WAC

San Diego St.

Utah St.

MAACO

MWC #1

Pac 12 #5

T C U

U C L A

Hawaii

WAC

C-USA

Hawaii

Southern Miss.

Independence

ACC #7

MWC #3

Miami (Fl)

Air Force

Little Caesar’s Pizza

Big 10 #8

MAC #2

Illinois

Ohio U

Belk

ACC #5

Big East #3

North Carolina

West Virginia

Military

ACC #8

Navy

Virginia

(Temple)

Holiday

Pac 12 #3

Big 12 #5

Utah

Missouri

Champs Sports

Big East #2

ACC #3

Notre Dame

Clemson

Alamo

Big 12 #3

Pac 10 #2

Kansas St.

Arizona St.

Armed Forces

C-USA #3

B Y U

Tulsa

B Y U

Pinstripe

Big East #4

Big 12 #7

Rutgers

(Florida Int’l)

Music City

SEC # 7

ACC #6

Tennessee

North Carolina St.

Insight

Big 12 #4

Big 10 #4 or 5

Texas A&M

Ohio St.

Meineke Car Care of Texas

Big 12 #6

Big 10 #6

Baylor

Michigan

Sun

ACC #4

Pac 12 #4

Virginia Tech

Washington

Kraft Fight Hunger

Pac 10 #6

Army/ACC

California

Wake Forest

Liberty

SEC#8-9/BigEast

C-USA #1

Mississippi St.

Houston

Chick-fil-A

SEC #5

ACC #2

Auburn

Florida State

TicketCity

Big 10 #7

C-USA

Iowa

S M U

Capital One

Big 10 #2

SEC #2

Wisconsin

Georgia

Gator

Big 10 #4 or 5

SEC #6

Nebraska

Florida

Outback

SEC #3 or 4

Big 10 #3

South Carolina

Michigan St.

Rose

BCS Pac12

BCS Big 10

Stanford

Penn St.

Fiesta

BCS Big 12

BCS At-Large

Oklahoma

Oregon

Sugar

BCS SEC

BCS At-Large

Alabama

Boise St.

Orange

BCS ACC

BCS At-Large

Georgia Tech

Cincinnati

Cotton

Big 12 #2

SEC #3 or 4

Texas

Arkansas

BBVA Compass

Big East#5/CUSA

SEC #8 or 9

Louisville

(Western Ky.)

GoDaddy.com

Sunbelt # 2

MAC #1

Louisiana-Laf.

Northern Illinois

National Championship

*** BCS #1 ***

*** BCS #2 ***

L S U

Oklahoma St.

 

 

October 31, 2011

PiRate Ratings: College Football for November 1-5, 2011

Filed under: Uncategorized — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — piratings @ 6:57 am

1 vs. 2

Are you ready for the newest Game of the Century?  Here is a breakdown of this special game.

 

L S U (5-0 SEC  8-0 Overall #1 in nation) vs. Alabama (5-0 SEC  8-0 Overall #2 in Nation)

 

Site: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL  Capacity: 101,820

 

Television: Saturday, November 5, 2011 CBS 8:00 PM EDT

 

L S U

Oregon (N)                 40-27

Northwestern St.       49-  3

@ Mississippi St.        19-  6

@ West Virginia        47-21

Kentucky                    35-  7

Florida                        41-11

@ Tennessee              38-  7

Auburn                      45-10

 

Stat Box

Stat                             LSU                Opp

Pts                               39.3                 11.5

FD                               20.8                 14.5

Rushing                      189.0               76.6

Rush Avg.                  4.3                   2.5

Real Rush *               194.1               92.3

Real Rush Avg. *      4.5                   3.3

Passing Yds.               183.1               174.8

Pass Yds/Att.             8.3                   5.4

Real Passing Yds. *   178.0               159.1

QB Sacks Allowed     7-41                 19-125

Interception %          0.6                   4.3

Total Offense             372.1               251.4

Punts                          43.9/Net 41.1 

PAT                            38-40

FG                               10-12 (44 LG)

Kick Return               23.8                 19.8

Punt Return               8.0                   0.6

TO Margin                 +15

Red Zone total           39                    16

RZ TD                        31                      9

RZ FG                          7                      6

 

* Using NFL rules where sacks count against passing yardage

Alabama

Kent St.                      48-  7

@ Penn St.                 27-11

North Texas               41-  0

Arkansas                    38-14

@ Florida                   38-10

Vanderbilt                  34-  0

@ Ole Miss                 52-  7

Tennessee                   37-  6

 

Stat Box

Stat                             Ala                  Opp

Pts                               39.4                   6.9

FD                               21.9                   9.9

Rushing                      229.3               44.9

Rush Avg.                  5.8                   1.7

Real Rush *               238.3               59.8

Real Rush Avg. *      6.3                   2.4

Passing Yds.               228.4               135.6

Pass Yds/Att.             8.0                   4.5

Real Passing Yds. *   219.4               120.8

QB Sacks Allowed     12-72               17-119

Interception %          2.2                   3.7

Total Offense             457.6               180.5

Punts                          39.0/36.4 Net 

PAT                            39-40

FG                               12-16 (45 LG)

Kick Return               23.5

Punt Return               12.7

TO Margin                 +6

Red Zone total           41                    9

RZ TD                        24                    5

RZ FG                        11                    1

 

* Using NFL rules where sacks count against passing yardage

 

 

PiRate Ratings

Alabama                     138.1  #1

L S U                          136.1  #2

 

Alabama Home-field Advantage for this game: 3 pts

 

PiRate Spread           Alabama 5.0

PiRate Score              Alabama 21  L S U 16

 

100 Computer Simulations

Wins: Alabama 54  L S U 46

Avg. Score: Alabama 18.76  L S U 16.36

Outlier A: Alabama 31  L S U 10

Outlier B: L S U 24  Alabama 10

Average Spread: 7.48 points

Spread Deviation: 4.64

 

This Week’s PiRate Ratings

#

Team

PiRate

1

Alabama

138.1

2

L S U

136.1

3

Stanford

134.0

4

Oklahoma

132.0

5

Oklahoma St.

130.6

6

Oregon

128.1

7

Boise St.

126.9

8

Southern Cal

122.4

9

Florida St.

122.4

10

Notre Dame

122.1

11

Wisconsin

121.8

12

TexasA&M

120.8

13

Arizona St.

119.1

14

Missouri

118.6

15

Nebraska

118.5

16

Michigan

117.1

17

S. Carolina

116.9

18

Arkansas

116.5

19

Michigan St.

116.3

20

Clemson

115.7

21

Texas

114.3

22

Georgia 

113.9

23

Ohio St.

113.4

24

Washington

113.1

25

Florida 

112.9

26

T C U

112.1

27

Virginia Tech

111.6

28

Houston

109.6

29

Cincinnati

109.5

30

Mississippi St.

109.5

31

W. Virginia

109.3

32

Utah

109.2

33

Miami(FL)

108.9

34

Arizona

108.3

35

Southern Miss.

107.5

36

Auburn

107.4

37

Georgia Tech

107.4

38

Penn St.

107.0

39

Kansas St.

106.8

40

TexasTech

106.3

41

Nevada

105.9

42

Vanderbilt

105.9

43

N. Carolina

105.8

44

Tulsa

105.7

45

Baylor

105.5

46

B Y U

105.5

47

California

105.4

48

Tennessee

105.1

49

U C L A

104.2

50

Pittsburgh

104.0

51

Iowa

103.7

52

Oregon St.

103.1

53

Air Force

102.6

54

Illinois

102.4

55

Washington St.

102.3

56

S. Florida

101.3

57

Iowa St.

101.0

58

Purdue

100.6

59

Toledo

100.6

60

Temple

100.3

61

Northwestern

100.0

62

BostonColl.

99.7

63

Virginia

99.5

64

WakeForest

99.4

65

N. Carolina St.

99.4

66

San Diego St.

99.3

67

Rutgers

98.8

68

Duke

98.7

69

Utah St.

98.7

70

Hawaii

98.4

71

Louisville

97.7

72

S M U

97.5

73

Ole Miss

97.0

74

Maryland

96.8

75

LouisianaTech

96.4

76

Central Florida

96.2

77

Syracuse

94.3

78

Connecticut

94.3

79

Arkansas St.

93.8

80

Fresno St.

93.7

81

Northern Illinois

93.4

82

San Jose St.

93.4

83

Western Michigan

92.3

84

Wyoming

92.0

85

East Carolina

92.0

86

Navy

91.8

87

Colorado

91.8

88

Minnesota

90.1

89

Kentucky

90.0

90

Miami(O)

89.3

91

Marshall

88.3

92

U T E P

87.5

93

FloridaInt’l

86.0

94

OhioU

85.9

95

New Mexico St.

85.5

96

UL-Lafayette

85.2

97

Kansas

85.2

98

Bowling Green

84.7

99

Army

84.6

100

WesternKy.

84.3

101

Idaho

84.2

102

Rice

83.4

103

UL-Monroe

83.3

104

Colorado St.

82.9

105

Ball St.

81.5

106

U A B

81.2

107

Eastern Michigan

80.9

108

Indiana

80.4

109

North Texas

79.6

110

U N L V

79.4

111

Troy

78.9

112

Central Michigan

78.7

113

Kent St.

78.0

114

MiddleTennessee

75.5

115

Buffalo

73.5

116

Tulane

69.2

117

Akron

68.8

118

Memphis

66.9

119

New Mexico

66.8

120

FloridaAtlantic

64.8

 

 

PiRate Ratings By Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

FloridaState

3-2

5-3

122.4

Clemson

5-1

8-1

115.7

BostonCollege

1-4

2-6

99.7

WakeForest

4-2

5-3

99.4

North CarolinaState

1-3

4-4

99.4

Maryland

1-4

2-6

96.8

       
Coastal Division

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Virginia Tech

4-1

8-1

111.6

Miami-FL

2-3

4-4

108.9

Georgia Tech

4-2

7-2

107.4

North Carolina

2-3

6-3

105.8

Virginia

2-2

5-3

99.5

Duke

1-3

3-5

98.7

 

Big East Conference

 

 

 

 

Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Cincinnati

2-0

6-1

109.5

West Virginia

2-1

6-2

109.3

Pittsburgh

2-1

4-4

104.0

South Florida

0-3

4-3

101.3

Rutgers

2-2

5-3

98.8

Louisville

2-1

4-4

97.7

Syracuse

1-2

5-3

94.3

Connecticut

1-2

3-5

94.3

 

Big Ten

       
Leaders Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Wisconsin

2-2

6-2

121.8

OhioState

2-2

5-3

113.4

PennState

5-0

8-1

107.0

Illinois

2-3

6-3

102.4

Purdue

2-2

4-4

100.6

Indiana

0-5

1-8

80.4

       
Legends Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nebraska

3-1

7-1

118.5

Michigan

3-1

7-1

117.1

MichiganState

3-1

6-2

116.3

Iowa

2-2

5-3

103.7

Northwestern

1-4

3-5

100.0

Minnesota

1-3

2-6

90.1

 

Big 12

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Oklahoma

4-1

7-1

132.0

OklahomaState

5-0

8-0

130.6

TexasA&M

3-2

5-3

120.8

Missouri

2-3

4-4

118.6

Texas

2-2

5-2

114.3

KansasState

4-1

7-1

106.8

TexasTech

2-3

5-3

106.3

Baylor

1-3

4-3

105.5

IowaState

1-4

4-4

101.0

Kansas

0-5

2-6

85.2

 

Conference USA

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Southern Mississippi

3-1

7-1

107.5

Central Florida

2-2

4-4

96.2

East Carolina

3-1

4-4

92.0

Marshall

3-2

4-5

88.3

U A B

1-4

1-7

81.2

Memphis

1-3

2-7

66.9

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Houston

4-0

8-0

109.6

Tulsa

4-0

5-3

105.7

S M U

3-2

5-3

97.5

U T E P

1-3

4-4

87.5

Rice

1-4

2-6

83.4

Tulane

1-4

2-7

69.2

 

Independents

       
Team

 

Overall

Rating

Notre Dame  

5-3

122.1

B Y U  

6-3

105.5

Navy  

2-6

91.8

Army  

3-5

84.6

 

Mid American Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Temple

3-2

5-3

100.3

Miami(O)

2-2

3-5

89.3

OhioU

2-2

5-3

85.9

Bowling Green

2-3

4-5

84.7

Kent St.

1-3

2-6

78.0

Buffalo

1-4

2-7

73.5

Akron

0-4

1-7

68.8

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Toledo

4-0

5-3

100.6

Northern Illinois

3-1

5-3

93.4

Western Michigan

3-2

5-4

92.3

BallState

3-2

5-4

81.5

Eastern Michigan

3-1

5-3

80.9

Central Michigan

2-3

3-6

78.7

 

Mountain West Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

BoiseState

2-0

7-0

126.9

T C U

3-0

6-2

112.1

Air Force

1-3

4-4

102.6

San DiegoState

1-2

4-3

99.3

Wyoming

2-0

5-2

92.0

ColoradoState

1-2

3-5

82.9

UNLV

1-1

2-5

79.4

New Mexico

0-3

0-8

66.8

 

Pac-12 Conference

       
North Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Stanford

6-0

8-0

134.0

Oregon

5-0

7-1

128.1

Washington

4-1

6-2

113.1

California

1-4

4-4

105.4

OregonState

2-3

2-6

103.1

WashingtonState

1-4

3-5

102.3

       
South Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

U S C

3-2

6-2

122.4

ArizonaState

4-1

6-2

119.1

Utah

1-4

4-4

109.2

Arizona

1-4

2-6

108.3

U C L A

3-2

4-4

104.2

Colorado

0-5

1-8

91.8

 

Southeastern Conference

East Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

South Carolina

5-1

7-1

116.9

Georgia

5-1

6-2

113.9

Florida

2-4

4-4

112.9

Vanderbilt

1-4

4-4

105.9

Tennessee

0-5

3-5

105.1

Kentucky

0-4

3-5

90.0

       
West Division      
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Alabama

5-0

8-0

138.1

L S U

5-0

8-0

136.1

Arkansas

3-1

7-1

116.5

MississippiState

1-4

4-4

109.5

Auburn

4-2

6-3

107.4

Ole Miss

0-5

2-6

97.0

 

Sunbelt Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

ArkansasState

4-0

6-2

93.8

FloridaInternational

2-2

5-3

86.0

U.ofLouisiana

5-1

7-2

85.2

Western Kentucky

4-1

4-4

84.3

Louisiana-Monroe

1-3

2-6

83.3

North Texas

2-3

3-6

79.6

Troy

1-3

2-5

78.9

MiddleTennessee

1-3

2-5

75.5

FloridaAtlantic

0-4

0-7

64.8

 

Western Athletic Conference

       
Team

Conf.

Overall

Rating

Nevada

3-0

5-3

105.9

UtahState

0-2

2-5

98.7

Hawaii

3-1

5-3

98.4

LouisianaTech

3-1

4-4

96.4

FresnoState

2-1

3-5

93.7

San JoseState

2-2

3-5

93.4

New MexicoState

1-3

3-5

85.5

Idaho

0-4

1-7

84.2

 

 

This Week’s PiRate Spreads

This Week’s Games–PiRate Ratings

   

 

 

 

Tuesday, November 1  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

TOLEDO Northern Illinois

10.2

38-28

7   

   

 

 

 

Wednesday, November 2  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

Temple OHIOU

11.4

28-17

5   

   

 

 

 

Thursday, November 3  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

MIAMI(O) Akron

23.0

35-12

16 1/2

Florida St. BOSTONCOLLEGE

19.7

34-14

14 1/2

Tulsa CENTRAL FLORIDA

6.5

34-27

-3   

   

 

 

 

Friday, November 4  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

KENT ST. Central Michigan

1.8

23-21

-1   

Southern Cal COLORADO

27.6

41-13

22   

   

 

 

 

Saturday, November 5  

PiRate Spread

 

 

Favorite Underdog

Score

Line

WEST VIRGINIA Louisville

14.6

35-20

14   

EASTERN MICHIGAN Ball St.

1.9

26-24

-3 1/2

Ole Miss KENTUCKY

4.0

24-20

2 1/2

GEORGIA New Mexico St.

32.9

47-14

37   

RUTGERS South Florida

0.5

28-27

-1   

Virginia MARYLAND

0.2

26-26 to ot

-2 1/2

CONNECTICUT Syracuse

2.5

24-21

3 1/2

MIAMI(FL) Duke

13.2

30-17

16 1/2

MICHIGAN ST. Minnesota

29.2

42-13

28   

WISCONSIN Purdue

24.2

41-17

26 1/2

OHIO ST. Indiana

36.0

42-6

29   

FLORIDA Vanderbilt

10.5

27-16

11   

IOWA ST. Kansas

18.8

35-16

13 1/2

NEBRASKA Northwestern

22.5

44-21

19   

T c u WYOMING

17.1

38-21

20   

S M U Tulane

31.3

41-10

25   

AIR FORCE Army

21.0

42-21

14 1/2

Michigan IOWA

9.9

31-21

3 1/2

TEXAS TexasTech

11.0

31-20

10   

OKLAHOMA TexasA&M

14.7

41-26

16 1/2

ARKANSAS South Carolina

2.6

27-24

4 1/2

North Carolina NORTH CAROLINA ST.

3.9

27-23

3 1/2

ALABAMA L s u

5.0

21-16

4 1/2

Oregon WASHINGTON

12.0

40-28

16 1/2

Arizona St. U C L A

11.9

35-23

13 1/2

CALIFORNIA Washington St.

6.1

34-28

9 1/2

Notre Dame WAKEFOREST

20.2

37-17

14   

Southern Miss. EAST CAROLINA

12.5

41-28

9 1/2

SAN JOSE ST. Idaho

12.2

35-23

6   

ARIZONA Utah

2.1

24-22

1 1/2

Stanford OREGON ST.

27.9

49-21

21   

OKLAHOMA ST. Kansas St.

27.3

44-17

21 1/2

Missouri BAYLOR

10.1

38-28

1   

Houston U A B

25.9

50-24

24   

Cincinnati PITTSBURGH

2.5

24-21

3   

SAN DIEGO ST. New Mexico

35.5

49-13

37   

U t e p RICE

1.6

28-26

1 1/2

FRESNO ST. LouisianaTech

1.3

28-27

4   

Boise St. U N L V

44.5

59-14

41   

HAWAII Utah St.

3.7

31-27

9   

NAVY Troy

15.9

42-26

5   

UL-LAFAYETTE UL-Monroe

4.4

28-24

3 1/2

WESTERN KENTUCKY FloridaInternational

0.8

28-27

-3   

TENNESSEE MiddleTennessee

32.6

42-9

18   

Arkansas St. FLORIDAATLANTIC

26.5

37-10

16   

 

Note: If you like Halloween stories, check out the true story that happened to our founder 41 years ago tonight at: https://piratings.wordpress.com/2011/10/31/a-true-halloween-story/

 

August 25, 2010

Introducing the PiRate NFL Pass Rating Formula

Introducing the PiRate NFL Pass Rating Formula

 

The National Football League has been using the same pass rating formula for multiple decades.  It uses a combination of completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and interceptions.  If you want to calculate it on your own, here it is:

 

I.     (Completion Percentage-30.0) * 0.05 +

II.    (Yards per attempt-3.0) * 0.25 +

III.   (20 * touchdowns per pass attempt) +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * interceptions per pass attempt)

 

If any of these four components are greater than 2.375, then cap the value at 2.375

 

Add these four stats together and multiple them by 16.667 to get the passer rating.  Here is an example:

 

In 1963, Y. A. Tittle had these stats for the New York Giants

Completions 221  Attempts 367  Yards 3145  Touchdowns 36  Interceptions 14

 

I.     (60.20 – 30.0) * 0.05 = 1.51  +

II.    (8.57-3.0) * 0.25 = 1.39        +

III.   (20 * .098) = 1.96                +

IV.   2.375 – (25 * .038) = 1.43    +

 

 Subtotal = 6.29     6.29 * 16.667 =

                     104.8

 

Once you know this formula, you can easily plug it into a spreadsheet and figure the ratings.  However, these ratings are a poor way to select the most efficient passer.

 

Let’s take a look at two opposing passers, Smith and Jones.

 

Smith completes 15 of 24 passes for 3 touchdowns with no interceptions.

 

Jones completes 10 of 24 passes for 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

 

Smith is obviously much better, correct?  No, not correct.  It depends on several other things.  What if Jones has a lousy offensive line or receivers that drop every other pass thrown to them?  What if Smith has all day to pass with Jerry Rice-type receivers?  All these stats show us are just that—their stats.

 

Smith could have completed six passes to backs behind the line of scrimmage with the backs following blocking for long gains.  Jones could have threaded the needle with 30 yard passes to the deep sidelines only to have had them dropped by inept receivers.

 

In essence no pass-rating formula is worth a grain of salt.  Let’s look at two separate plays.  Passer A completes 13-yard pass for a touchdown.  It is a dump pass into the flat to the tailback with the tailback avoiding three defenders as he streaks into the end zone.  This one pass gets the NFL Maximum rating of 158.3.

 

Now, let’s look at Passer B.  His team is backed up at their own 1 yard line. He drops back and fires a bomb 55 yards through the air that comes down perfectly in the hands of his flanker.  The flanker takes off down the sideline and is knocked out just one yard from scoring.  This 98-yard pass gives Passer B a rating of 118.8!  Peyton Manning actually had a better total season rating than this a couple years ago, and even though he ranks among the best ever, he was not worth a 98-yard completion every time he threw the ball!

 

Can this be?  You betcha!  The rating is flawed.  Obviously the brilliantly thrown pass that travelled 55 yards past the line of scrimmage that comes down perfectly in the hands of the intended receiver should be worth a lot more than the dump pass that I could complete given two seconds protection.

 

Here is where the PiRate Pass Rating Formula tries to correct the incorrect values of the NFL Pass Rating Formula.

 

Our formula looks at just two statistics.  The first is interception percentage.  An intercepted pass is worth anywhere from 3 to 7 points for the other team on average.  We realize that all interceptions are not the same.  A poorly thrown pass into the flat at the offense’s 20-yard line hurts much more than a 3rd and 25 pass thrown 40 yards downfield and intercepted by the defense. 

 

The second stat is called “Air Yards Per Attempt,” or AYPA.  It is simply the passing yardage minus the yards after catch.  If Passer A completed a 51-yard pass for a touchdown, but the play consisted of a pass completed to a tailback one yard past the line of scrimmage with the back running for 50 yards, the passer gets credit for an AYPA of 1 yard (51 yard pass – 50 yards after the catch).

 

Here is the PiRate Pass Rating Formula:

[AYPA * 7 – (11 * Interception %) + 105] * 0.8

 Interception percentage is figured as: (Interceptions/Attempts) *100

 Anything over 100 is an excellent rating.  Over 90 means the QB is above average.  80 would be considered average; below 80 means this QB should be looking over his shoulder for a replacement to take his job.

 In our passer rating, we don’t include passing percentage or touchdown passes.  Yards gained are what matters.  Three consecutive completed passes that gain a total of nine yards means 4th & 1.  Two incomplete passes followed by an 11 yard completion means 1st & 10.  Which outcome is better?

 Touchdowns skew the ratings.  If one coach sends in passing plays at the opponents’ one yard line, while another sends his 240-pound power back to plunge over the goal, the quarterbacks will get too much credit in once instance and no credit in the other. 

 Let’s take a look at the PiRate Rating in action.  First, you must be wondering where can you find AYPA?  There is an excellent website that carries this stat, so you don’t have to try to figure out the YAC for each QB.  Go to: www.advancednflstats.com

 Here is a look at both ratings side-by-side:

Player

PiRate QB Rating

 

Player

Official NFL Rating

Aaron Rodgers

108.9

|||

Drew Brees

109.6

Drew Brees

107.5

|||

Brett Favre

107.2

Brett Favre

106.7

|||

Phil Rivers

104.4

Tony Romo

105.6

|||

Aaron Rodgers

103.2

Phil Rivers

104.8

|||

Ben Roethlisberger

100.5

Ben Roethlisberger

97.9

|||

Peyton Manning

99.9

Matt Schaub

97.8

|||

Matt Schaub

98.6

Peyton Manning

97.2

|||

Tony Romo

97.6

Donovan McNabb

96.3

|||

Tom Brady

96.2

David Garrard

96.1

|||

Kurt Warner

93.2

Kyle Orton

94.7

|||

Eli Manning

93.1

Brad Gradkowski

94.4

|||

Donovan McNabb

92.9

Tom Brady

93.8

|||

Joe Flacco

88.9

Kurt Warner

93.4

|||

Kyle Orton

86.8

Eli Manning

92.8

|||

Jason Campbell

86.4

Vince Young

92.1

|||

Carson Palmer

83.6

Joe Flacco

87.7

|||

David Garrard

83.5

Marc Bulger

86.7

|||

Vince Young

82.8

Jason Campbell

85.4

|||

Alex Smith

81.5

Matt Ryan

83.0

|||

Matt Ryan

80.9

Carson Palmer

81.7

|||

Brad Gradkowski

80.6

Chad Henne

80.8

|||

Jay Cutler

76.8

Alex Smith

79.7

|||

Chad Henne

75.2

Brady Quinn

78.4

|||

Matt Hasselbeck

75.1

Matt Hasselbeck

75.7

|||

Trent Edwards

73.8

Matt Cassel

75.7

|||

Marc Bulger

70.7

Kerry Collins

72.1

|||

Matt Cassel

69.9

Trent Edwards

69.9

|||

Ryan Fitzpatrick

69.7

Kyle Boller

69.1

|||

Brady Quinn

67.2

Jay Cutler

67.3

|||

Kerry Collins

65.5

Ryan Fitzpatrick

64.3

|||

Mark Sanchez

63.0

Mark Sanchez

60.9

|||

Kyle Boller

61.2

JaMarcus Russell

56.4

|||

Matt Stafford

61.0

Matt Stafford

54.1

|||

Josh Freeman

59.8

Jake Delhomme

51.5

|||

Jake Delhomme

59.4

Josh Freeman

46.4

|||

JaMarcus Russell

50.0

Derek Anderson

46.3

|||

Derek Anderson

42.1

 

Coming tomorrow: We reveal the initial NFL PiRate, Mean, and Bias ratings for the 2010 season and give our predictions for each division.

September 2, 2009

2009 Big 10 Preview

2009 Big 10 Conference Preview

A PiRate Look

We’ve saved the best for last.  Okay, it’s the best for us, because four of us are Big 10 guys.  Let us take care of something before we go on.  Two of us are University of Wisconsin alums.  One of us is University of Minnesota alum, and our founder is an adopted Wisconsinite married to a former resident of Madison (and Minneapolis).  He’s also a life-long follower of Ohio State, partially because of legendary sports talk show host Pete Franklin, who mentored him during his time in sports radio, and partially because his grade school PE touch football team called itself Ohio State (read how the PiRates started for an explanation).

While the Big 10 is no better than the fourth or fifth best league in college football this year, it could very well be first in excitement.  No team, not even the Buckeyes, is dominant enough to run away with the conference title.  Five teams have a legitimate shot at contending for the Rose Bowl bid.  Four other teams could become bowl eligible.  Even the last place team should be exciting to watch thanks to a change in offensive philosophy. 

Here are the preseason PiRate ratings for the league.  The ratings have been rounded to the nearest whole number even though we calculate them to two decimal places.  Thus, when you see multiple teams with the same rating, they are not actually exactly even.  To understand what the rating means, it is set so that 100 is average.  Thus, a rating of 90 means the team is 10 points weaker than the average team in the FBS.  The average of all 120 FBS teams should round to 100 if the math has been successfully calculated.

For those who have not followed the PiRate Ratings before and wonder about the home field advantage, we do not assign set in stone advantages.  These are assigned on a game-by-game basis.  For instance, if Indiana was 0-4 and hosting a 4-0 Kentucky team, it would be expected that those devoted Blue Mist fans would pack Memorial Stadium and make it a home game for the Wildcats.  UK might actually receive a point advantage.  Now, if that same Indiana team instead is 4-0 and hosting San Diego State a week after SDSU played at Hawaii and lost in four overtimes, IU would get as much as 10 points in home field advantage.  The PiRates think it’s ridiculous to issue a blank home field advantage for all teams or even assign a range of set home field advantages.

 

Big 10 Conference Preseason PiRate Ratings

   

 

Prediction *

  Team

PiRate

Big 10

Overall

  Penn State

116

6-2

10-2

  Iowa

114

5-3

9-3

  Ohio State

113

7-1

11-1

  Illinois

106

6-2

10-2

  Michigan State

103

6-2

9-3

  Michigan

102

2-6

5-7

  Wisconsin

101

3-5

7-5

  Minnesota

101

4-4

7-5

  Purdue

99

2-6

4-8

  Northwestern

97

3-5

7-5

  Indiana

89

0-8

2-10

   

 

 

 

 

*  Predictions not based on PiRate Rating but

 

on expected changes to rating during the year

 

This preview will be a little different than the rest.  We will list each team’s strengths and weaknesses as we see them

Penn State

Strengths:

Running Back—Evan Royster rushed for 1,236 yards (6.5 avg) and 12 TDs; backup Staphfon Green has sub 4.3 40 speed

Quarterback—Daryll Clark is the perfect fit for this offense.  He passed for 2,592 yards and 19 touchdowns and rushed for 10 TDs as well.

Linebacker—Duh, this is Linebacker U.  Navorro Bowman led with 106 tackles, 16 ½ behind the line, and broke up five passes.  Sean Lee returns after missing 2008.  In 2007, he had 138 tackles.

Weaknesses:

Receiver—Gone are the top three receivers from 2008 (132 receptions 1,932 yds/17 TDs), representing 59% of the catches, 61% of the yards, and 71% of the touchdowns.

Offensive Line—Three new starters must have it down pat by game four, when PSU takes on Iowa.  Guard Lou Eliades and tackle DeOn’tae Pannell both have the potential to be stars, so this unit could prove to be okay.  Tackle Dennis Landolt is already a star.

Secondary—The Nittany Lions were wiped out by graduation here.  Four new starters make it the weakest unit on the team. 

Outlook—An easy out-of-conference slate guarantees four wins.  Penn State hosts Ohio State, but the visiting team has won the last two years.  A season finale at Michigan State could have the Rose Bowl trip on the line.  We think they have a few too many holes to fill but enough talent to finish in the top four in the conference.

Iowa

Strengths:

Defense—The entire defensive side, with the exception of tackle, will be tough.  The Hawkeyes gave up 13 points and 291 yards per game last year, and there’s no reason to think they won’t repeat that performance this year.  The back seven has no peer in the Big 10.  The Hawkeyes could intercept 25 passes.  Safety Tyler Sash and linebacker Pat Angerer both intercepted five passes in 2008, and Amari Spievey picked off four. 

Quarterback—Ricky Stanzi isn’t going to make the All-Big 10 Team, but he flies just under the radar.  He should top 2,000 yards passing and toss 15-20 touchdown passes.

Weaknesses:

Offensive Line—This isn’t a weakness per se; it’s a total shuffling of the roster.  Only tackle Bryan Bulaga started last year and will start this year.  The depth chart here has been scrambled, with two former starters losing their jobs.  If former starter Dace Richardson, who missed most of the last two seasons, can return to form, this will actually become a fairly good unit.

Running Back—The Hawkeyes cannot replace Shone Greene (1,850 yards/6.0 avg/20 TDs).  New starter Paki O’Meara ran the ball 21 times for 67 yards last year.

Defensive Tackle—Karl Klug could develop into a fine player, and Christian Ballard is capable of playing anywhere on the line, but neither of them is close in talent to departed stars Matt Kroul and Mitch King.

Outlook—Iowa can stop just about any offense in the league, and they should hold their four non-conference opponents (Northern Iowa, Iowa State, Arizona, and Arkansas State) to about 35 total points.  Inside the Big 10, tough games at Penn State, Michigan State, and Ohio State will prevent them from winning the title.  Nine wins and a eighth bowl bid in the last nine years is very reachable.

Ohio State

Strengths:

Quarterback—Terrelle Pryor is just a sophomore, but he’s the co-number one QB in this league.  Look for him to pass for 2,250-2,500 yards and rush for close to 1,000, accounting for 25 touchdowns.

Defensive Line—Three starters return from a unit that surrendered 110 rushing yards per game and provided a strong pass rush.  End Thaddeus Gibson recorded five sacks and four other TFLs.

Safety—Kurt Coleman and Anderson Russell form the best safety tandem in the league.  Both are NFL prospects.

Weaknesses:

Cornerback—Malcolm Jenkins will give quarterbacks in the NFC South headaches this year, and he cannot be replaced.  Teams refused to pass the ball in his direction as much as possible, yet he still intercepted three passes and broke up nine others.

Receiver—The Buckeyes lost the two Brians, Robiskie and Hartline, both of whom were drafted.  The replacements will eventually be quite proficient, but it will take a few games.  The Southern Cal game comes up in week two.

Running Back—Beanie Wells and his 1,197 yards rushing are gone.  Pryor will lead the Buckeyes in rushing this year, but he needs somebody to take the heat off him occasionally.  Sophomore Dan Herron could subsidize the running of Pryor and allow OSU to rush for the same amount of yards this year (192 per game in ’08).

Linebacker—Ohio State lost James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman, and the replacements are lightly experienced.  Lone returnee Ross Homan could make the All-Big 10 1st Team.

Outlook—Ohio State’s backups from one year usually become starters the next year and perform admirably, so weaknesses for them are not the same as weaknesses for other teams.  The key to the season comes in week two.  If they beat Southern Cal, it will be a shot in the arm, and the Buckeyes could run the table.  If they lose this game, they will have a hard time playing their best all season, knowing they have little chance of going to the second Pasadena bowl.  We think they have a better than 50-50 shot of winning. The game at Penn State may not go their way, and the Buckeyes may have to settle for the first Pasadena bowl.

Illinois

Strengths:

Quarterback—Juice Williams is the other co-number one QB in the league.  He won’t be confused for Tebow, Bradford, or McCoy, but he will make Illinois go.  He passed for 3,173 yards and 22 touchdowns last year, but he needs to cut back on interceptions.  He also led the Illini with 719 rushing, and he is capable of topping 1,000.  Backup Eddie McGee has talent and can move the team as well.

Receiver—It starts with Arrelious Benn, who finished second in the league with 67 receptions and 1,055 yards.  Tight end Mike Hoomanawanui is a nightmare on enemy safeties at 6’5 and 270.  Look for him to catch 30-40 passes and plough his way for a few extra yards after every catch except for the diving receptions.  Jeff Cumberland is a serious threat to go all the way with every catch he makes.

Running Back—The offensive skill positions are the best in the Big 10 thanks to the able running abilities of Daniel Dufrene, Jason Ford, and Mikel Leshoure.  The trio will split reps and rush for about 1,200 yards this year.  All three are threats as receivers as well.

Weaknesses:

The Defensive Front Seven—The Illini gave up 153 yards rushing and 4.0 yards per rush.  Only two of the front seven starters return this year, and this will be a big liability.  Expected starting end Jerry Brown was declared academically ineligible and won’t play this year.

Outlook—The lack of stars on the defensive side will necessitate the Illini holding onto the ball longer this season.  New offensive coordinator Mike Schulz was noted for putting together TCU offenses that held onto the ball for long, time consuming drives. 

What Schulz cannot change is the schedule.  After having an off week September 19, the Illini must play at Ohio State, at home against Penn State and at home against Michigan State.  That is a tough three game stretch, and very few teams other than the top four in the nation can beat these three powers back-to-back-to-back.  Illinois should enjoy a return to a New Year’s Day Bowl, and if  more than one team can beat Ohio State, Coach Ron Zook could gain a share of the Big 10 title.

Michigan State

Strengths:

Receiver—All the receivers who caught more than five passes return this year.  Mark Dell, Charlie Gantt, and Blair White may not catch 50 passes each, but if they continue to average an aggregate 17 yards per catch, they are going to make things difficult for defenses, as the running game gets more room to operate.

Defensive Front Seven—The linebacker trio is up there with Penn State and Iowa, and the front four is above average.  End Trevor Anderson is a QB’s nightmare.  He could post double digit sacks after recording eight a year ago.  Offenses will not be able to key on him, because linebackers Eric Gordon, Greg Jones, and Brandon Denson can shoot through and drop a passer or take a running back down for a loss.

Weaknesses:

Quarterback—The loss of Brian Hoyer is harder to overcome than first thought.  None of the possible replacements has distinguished himself, and the Spartans will open the season with a possible platoon of Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol, two sophomores with limited experience.  Look for Coach Mark Dantonio to run more, pass less, and pass deeper when the Spartans do throw it.

Running Back—Javon Ringer was one of the most underrated running backs in the NCAA.  He led the Big 10 with 1,637 yards and 22 touchdowns last year.  Caulton Ray, a redshirt freshman will get first crack at filling those shoes.  Larry Caper and Edwin Baker will see plenty of action.  The three will get 400 carries and hope to replace the lost yardage as a trio.

Outlook—The Spartans had a chance at the end of the year to get a piece of the Big 10 title, but Penn State thrashed them 49-18.  MSU doesn’t have enough offensive talent to score enough points to beat the better offensive teams, and their defense won’t be strong enough to hold those teams’ score down low enough to win 17-14.  The Spartans play at Notre Dame, and that could be an extra loss on their schedule.  We expect them to get their revenge on Penn State this year and prevent the Lions from winning the Big 10.  As for the MSU record, even with the offensive woes, we think they will win as many as last year.

Michigan

Strengths:

Running Back—Brandon Minor is still around, and when healthy, he is capable of piling up good yardage.  A big year could move him onto the draft boards of some teams.  Quarterback Tate Forcier will be a much better runner than Steven Threet was last year.  Nick Sheridan is another option, but Coach Rich Rodriguez would love Forcier to take the reins and not give them up.

Offensive Line—All five starters return, and with a year of experience in this offense, the rushing numbers should jump by as much as 100 yards.  Guard Stephen Schilling has all-conference potential.

Defensive Front Seven—Linebackers Obi Ezeh, Jonas Mouton, and Stevie Brown make this yet another excellent group in this league.  End Brandon Graham is the best at his position in the Big 10 (10 sacks and 10 more TFLs!)

Punter—Zoltan Mesko is a Ray Guy Award contender.  He averaged 43 yards per punt with a net of 39.3.  His punts have great hang time, and he can place them inside the 20 any time he’s punting from beyond his 35 yard line.

Weaknesses:

Secondary—Three 2008 starters are gone, and the new starters didn’t see much playing time last year.  Expect major problems when the Wolverines play Notre Dame, Iowa, Penn State, Illinois, and Ohio State.

Team Morale—We were ready to pick Michigan as a surprise contender for eight wins and a bowl until the news came out about players going to the Detroit Free Press to accuse Rodriguez of making them practice more hours than the NCAA allows.  We think there is a concerted effort from within the booster community to send Rodriguez on his way, and we expect more bad news to emerge this year.

Outlook—It looks like two years could be all for Rich Rodriguez.  He cannot coach with this lack of respect coming from within the ranks.  Rodriguez will get another chance somewhere else if this is his final year in Ann Arbor.  We say 5-7 is the best this team can do.

Wisconsin

Strengths:

Running Back—P. J. Hill is gone, but Zach Brown and John Clay are back.  The Badger running game should continue to grind out 200-225 yards per game.

Tight  End—Wisconsin usually uses two tight ends, and Mickey Turner and Garrett Graham are big and sure-handed.  Graham led the Badgers with 40 receptions and 540 yards.  He could top 50 this year, while Turner should match graduated starter Travis Beckham yard-for-yard.

Secondary—Three starters return to a unit that gave up just 52.5% completions and 196 yards per game.  Cornerback Niles Brinkley intercepted four passes and knocked away nine more, and yet he was beaten out in August practice. 

Weaknesses:

Quarterback—Allan Evridge and Dustin Sherer didn’t remind anybody of Aaron Rodgers, as they combined for just 54% completions and a TD/INT ratio of 11/10.  Neither had much running ability, and they were sacked 29 times.  Scott Tolzein has beaten out Sherer (Evridge graduated), and he’s a little more mobile. 

Defensive Front Seven—Wisconsin has usually been strong up front on defense.  This year, only two of the seven starters return, and the new starters have little game experience.  Look for opponents to rush for 150-180 yards per game against the rebuilt run defense, and look for quarterbacks to have more time to pass.  UW will give up 28-33 points per game.

Outlook– Coach Bret Bielema could be on the hot seat if Wisconsin continues to slide the wrong way.  Since taking over for Barry Alvarez, UW has won 12, nine, and seven games.  That number better move the other way this year.  An easy non-conference slate should produce four wins, but we see the Badgers repeating their 3-5 league record for a repeat of 2008.  That will place Bielema on a very hot seat for the 2010 season.

Minnesota

Strengths:

Receiver—Yes, we are talking about Minnesota being strong at the wide out position.  Eric Decker is the best receiver ever to wear the Big M.  Last year, he led the Big 10 with 84 receptions and 1,074 yards, scoring seven times.  He missed some time with injuries, or else he might have caught 100 passes.  Brandon Green and tight end Nick Tow-Arnett give UM three dangerous weapon.  Tow-Arnett grabbed just 10 passes last year, but he averaged 21.1 yards per catch.

Quarterback—Adam Weber had a Bryan Cupito-like season last year.  He passed for 2,761 yards and 15 touchdowns at a 62.2% completion rate.  He showed an ability to run when called on to do so.  If he improves as much this year as last, he could top 3,000 yards.

Offensive Line—A combination of four returning starters plus a new star-in-the-making mean the Gophers are going to be strong in the trenches.  Coach Tim Brewster would like to bring back the power running game enjoyed just four years ago in the Lawrence Maroney days.

Weaknesses:

Running Back—Duane Bennett, DeLeon Easkridge, and a host of others combined to run for just 104 yards per game (34 sacks skewed those numbers a bit).  Bennett showed the most promise for turning into a consistent runner, and he has become the starter.

Defensive Back—Minnesota is not ready to challenge for conference honors because their pass defense isn’t strong enough.  After surrendering 240 yards per game, there should be some improvement this year.  It would have been better had safety Tramaine Brock been able to remain academically eligible.  Kyle Theret  and Marcus Sherels make up half of a good secondary, but they cannot cover two zones at once.

Outlook—The most exciting thing about Minnesota football in 2009 is their brand new outdoor, on-campus stadium.  We’ve watched its construction adjacent to Williams Arena, and it is one beautiful work of architecture.  It’s light years better than old Memorial Stadium (The Brick House), and much more student friendly and personable than the Metrodome.  If you get a chance to see TCF Bank Stadium, don’t pass it up.

As for the Gophers, a better running game to compliment an outstanding passing game should allow UM to score 28 to 33 points per game and gain around 400 yards per game.  Unfortunately, the Gophers will give up 28 points per game as well.  The schedule has one tough non-conference game (Cal) and one semi-touch non-conference game (Air Force).  The Gophers should match last year’s seven-win total.

Purdue

Strengths:

Defensive Back Seven—Five of seven starters return to these two units, led by free safety Torri Williams (83 tackles, 2 int., 6 PBU) and cornerback David Pender (12 PBU).  Linebackers Chris Carlino and Joe Holland have all-conference potential

Weaknesses:

Quarterback—Is it true that this is a weakness at Purdue?  With the loss of Curtis Painter and backup Justin Siller’s dismissal, it leaves inexperienced senior Joey Elliott to take control of the offense.  There will be a major drop-off for first year coach Danny Hope.  The Boilermakers averaged 183 yards per game through the air last year, which was the lowest this century.  It will be the second lowest after this season concludes.

Running Back—1,131-yard rusher Kory Sheets and his 16 touchdowns scored are history.  Replacement Ralph Bolden rushed for 28 yards on 16 attempts.  Expect a minor decrease only, because PU just rushed for 125 yards per game last year.

Receiver—To complete the troika of skill positions, the Boilermakers suffered heavy losses at receiver.  The top two pass catchers, Desmond Tardy and Greg Orton, are gone after grabbing 136 passes for 1,546 yards and 10 TDs.  This year’s starters combined for 60 receptions and 710 yards.

Outlook—Purdue opens the season playing Toledo at home and Oregon on the road.   The next two games are at home against Northern Illinois and at Notre Dame.  If they don’t win two of those four games, they may lose double digit games for the first time since 1993.  If they split those first four, then they could win two or three more times.  We’ll call it a repeat of last year—4-8.

Northwestern

Strengths:

Defensive Line—Coach Pat Fitzgerald has slowly started to turn Northwestern into a defense before offense team, much like the way NU played when he was starring for Coach Gary Barnett.  He’s built a strong front four with end Corey Wootton leading the way.  Wootton had 10 sacks and six other tackles behind the line and made 1st Team All-Big 10.  Starting at the other end, Vince Browne recorded four sacks off the bench last year.  Tackle Corbin Bryant proved to be a reliable run stopper.

Defensive Backs—All four starters return from last year, and all of them could make one of the all-conference teams.  Safety Brad Phillips led NU with 109 tackles with six going for losses; he picked off three passes and knocked away six others.  His counterpart at the other safety, Brendan Smith, finished third on the team with 82 tackles.  Cornerbacks Sherrick McManis and Jordan Mabin teamed for five interceptions and 17 passed knocked away.  Northwestern gave up 214 passing yards per game, and that number could go down.

Weaknesses:

Quarterback—C. J. Bacher has graduated, and senior Mike Kafka takes over.  Kafka is a much better runner than Bacher, but he isn’t as competent passing the ball. 

Running Back—Tyrell Sutton rushed for 890 yards in eight games of action, and backup Stephen Simmons started in his place.  NU averaged just 80 rushing yards per game in Simmons’ starts, and more than 175 yards per game when Sutton played.  Simmons takes over the position full time this year after gaining just 2.9 yards per carry.  Expect the Wildcats to rely more on Kafka than any of the running backs.

Wide Receiver—Another reason Northwestern’s offense will stagnate this year is a weak receiving unit.  The top three receivers (top four when you count Sutton’s passes caught from his RB spot) have graduated, leaving a roster that combined for 57 catches and 480 yards. 

Outlook—Northwestern won all their non-league games last year for the first time since 1963, and it’s a good bet it will happen again in 2009.  They will only need two Big 10 wins to become bowl eligible, and with both Purdue and Indiana on the schedule, they have a great shot.  Throw in one upset along the way when the defense dominates in inclement weather, and you have the Wildcats’ first back-to-back winning seasons since 1995 and 1996, when Fitzgerald was the star linebacker.

Indiana

Strengths:

Defensive End—Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton give the Hoosiers one of the best set of terminals in the league.  Kirley is the leading returning sack master in the league after recording 10 ½ last year.  He added nine trappings of backs for losses to that total.  Middleton was a 1st Team All-Big 10 selection two years ago, but he spent most of last year in the doghouse following an early season suspension.

Linebacker—Middle linebacker Matt Mayberry led IU with 89 tackles last year, while Will Patterson added 55 and had 8 ½ total tackles for loss.

Weaknesses:

The entire offense—Indiana will struggle to score points, even with the switch to the pistol offense.  Quarterback Ben Chappell has the potential to be a 200-yard per game passer, but he just doesn’t have much support.  His receivers are not overly fast nor great hands people.  There are no potential stars at running back, and the offensive line is below average.  Look for the Hoosiers to average less than 20 points and 325 yards per game this year.

Outlook—It’s going to be a long year in Bloomington.  Indiana has to get some new blood into the moribund offense.  The defense will give the Hoosiers a couple opportunities to win a game or two, but that’s about all that can be expected.  This is, or at least was, a basketball school.  1967 was 42 years ago, and that’s the last time IU won the Big 10.

Next up: We begin regular season coverage with the PiRate and Mean spreads for the opening week of the college season.  Look for our initial NFL ratings the first of next week.

2009 Southeastern Conference Preview

2009 Southeastern Conference Preview

A PiRate Look

Welcome to the conference where football is not just a sport; it’s a way of life for millions.  SEC fans at 11 schools act like their teams are football factories and not institutions of higher learning.  The average capacity of the perennial six powers (Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee in the East and Alabama, Auburn, and LSU in the West) exceeds 92,500, and on home game Saturdays, there are more people in the stands of half these teams than there are in the cities in which they are located.

This year, the SEC begins the season as the top-ranked league.  Throw in the fact that the member teams, for the most part, are playing non-conference schedules as weak as the teams in the Sunbelt Conference, and there’s a good chance that nine bowl eligible teams could emerge (which by the way equals the number of bowl tie-ins).

Here are the preseason PiRate ratings for the league.  The ratings have been rounded to the nearest whole number even though we calculate them to two decimal places.  Thus, when you see multiple teams with the same rating, they are not actually exactly even.  To understand what the rating means, it is set so that 100 is average.  Thus, a rating of 90 means the team is 10 points weaker than the average team in the FBS.  The average of all 120 FBS teams should round to 100 if the math has been successfully calculated.

For those who have not followed the PiRate Ratings before and wonder about the home field advantage, we do not assign set in stone advantages.  These are assigned on a game-by-game basis.  For instance, if Vanderbilt hosts Tennessee at the end of the year, when the Commodores are 4-7 and the Vols are 9-1, then the game could actually be a “home game on the road” for the Vols.  Tennessee might actually receive a couple of points if it appears 75% of the fans at the stadium will be wearing orange.  If that same Vanderbilt team begins the season 2-0 and hosts New Mexico State, then the Commodores would receive about four to six points.  The PiRates think it’s ridiculous to issue a blank home field advantage for all teams or even assign a range of set home field advantages.

 

Southeastern Conference Preseason PiRate Ratings

 
   

 

Prediction *

 
  Team

PiRate

SEC

Overall

 
  East

 

 

 

 
  Florida

142

8-0

13-0

#
  Georgia

114

5-3

8-4

 
  Tennessee

106

3-5

7-5

 
  Vanderbilt

104

2-6

5-7

 
  South Carolina

103

4-4

6-6

 
  Kentucky

100

1-7

5-7

 
   

 

 

 

 
  West

 

 

 

 
  Ole Miss

120

6-2

10-2

 
  Alabama

120

7-1

11-2

#
  L S U

114

6-2

10-2

 
  Arkansas

108

4-4

8-4

 
  Auburn

105

2-6

5-7

 
  Mississippi St.

91

0-8

1-11

 

 

 

*  Predictions not based on PiRate Rating but

 
 

on expected changes to rating during the year